Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

Please add your GN thoughts post the announcements of the weights

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1,238 Responses to Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

  1. Corbiere says:

    I am starting to see dangerous horses lurking everywhere, Raz De Maree this season’s Welsh GN winner lurking (love that word) on 10st 8lb. I know everybody will tell you it’s a Soft ground horse. BUT STILL has good stamina, has Won 3m4f in Good.
    If lots more go for Irish, who knows we could have an Irish GN winner from 2015 Thunder and Roses, still only a 10 year old getting in on bottom weight, getting nearly 2 stone from top weight.

  2. Corbiere says:

    If you read the GN “Minella Rocco head’s the weights column” online for Sporting Life it sound like Baie Des Iles is going for our GN not the Irish, with Katie Walsh onboard.
    Didn’t see that one coming.
    Boy that would break some stats if she wins.

  3. JJ says:

    Horses well in:
    Anibale Fly 9lb
    Bellshill 7lb
    Shantou Flyer 5lb
    Rathvinden 4lb
    Regal Encore 4lb
    Tiger Roll 2lb

  4. Corbiere says:

    Funny you should highlight those well in JJ.
    Since watching Chelts I was quite impressed by Shantou Flyer, and those you mention are the ones who have shown good recent form. Something else to ponder.

    Feel pretty certain Bellshill will go for Irish and may well win it, but as usual these days, you have to take a chance on which to back it in.
    Personally if Irish would certainly back, if our GN, even though he would be well handicapped I personally would feel a bit reluctant due to number of chases he has had.

    Pendra is another I have looked at, considering his time of racecourse, he ran pretty well at Chelts. Has had a Class 1 chase win in Good ground, let in on a light weight, another McManus plot ?

    Rathvinden great win, proven stamina, finished a little distressed maybe, however a month’s rest and possibly easier to get around in G/Soft, not quite so stamina sapping ?

    So hard this year, very few you could dismiss with confidence.

  5. JJ says:

    I remember the lovely Rebecca Curtis saying before last years’ GN that Shantou Flyer was crying out for a trip and that he needed decent ground. This year he’s ran consistently on heavy going though. Does well at Cheltenham also.

    I would be hesitant in backing Bellshill aswell due to chase experience. He’s so well handicapped though imo you couldn’t ignore him and I would be more confident of him getting the trip than not.

    Pendra I couldn’t touch due to lack of season runs, and with Rathvinden I suppose it’s how well he recovers from those exertions in the coming weeks.

    Amongst the ones at bigger prices I like Warriors Tale; two solid seconds this year, bred to stay and has in fact placed over 26f albeit a hurdles race, jumps well and I think Aintree will suit, likes decent ground, plus there’s the Trevor Hemmings connection.

  6. billymag says:

    FWIW these are the top lot of my system, not much will change from now unless something runs, I give 5 pts for hitting a trend/stat and the most a horse can get is 85:

    Anibale fly – 75
    The Last Samuri – 75
    Raz de maree – 75
    Milansbar – 75
    Bless the Wings – 70
    Final Nudge – 70
    Vintage Clouds – 70
    Minella Rocco – 65
    Blaklion – 65
    Shantou Flyer – 65
    Vicente – 65
    Vyta Du Roc – 65

    Tiger Roll is a little unlucky to miss out, coz as I mentioned earlier I think the Cross country runs shield a horses Chase Hcp mark. Ill make a decision nearer the time on the 10 ill back, but very happy the list above, just need to whittle it down further.

  7. Corbiere says:

    Surely you won’t need to worry Billymag, from that list some may not get in, or become non runners.
    Good luck !

  8. Seven Towers says:

    The Achilles heel of Mullins seems to be his horses ability to jump. I note that he had 11 horses fall at Cheltenham last week, which even despite the vast number he sent over is still a lot. How Pylonthepressure stayed on his feet, Lord only knows, Kemboy uprooted one in the RSA and even Rathvinden ploughed through one early doors in his race.

    Then you think back to last year’s GN, Pleasant Company, his only runner, tried to unship Ruby at Valentines and in 2016 he had two fallers and an unseat.

    Seems to me the bigger he has got the worse the jumping of some of his horses has become.

  9. daniel edwards says:

    I’ve only crunched the first 25 on the card and I’ve already got 6 that meet my 4 best stats. That’s more than I get usually in the final 40!

    Could really do with some of them dropping out!

  10. Corbiere says:

    Yeh about 60 of them Daniel !

  11. Corbiere says:

    Which 6 out of interest ?

  12. daniel edwards says:

    Minella Rocco
    Anibale Fly
    Last Samari (if this one wins I’m giving up punting though)
    Total Recall
    Rathvinden
    Tiger Roll

  13. daniel edwards says:

    And if the trend for lightly raced second season chasers holds up, Total Recall Anibale Fly and Rathvinden will do particularly well….

  14. daniel edwards says:

    And they’ve all won over 3 miles and had a post weights run too, so even stretching the stats a bit further doesn’t help me either!

    And 4 of them were top 3 LTO as well….

  15. daniel edwards says:

    Actually MR hasn’t had a post weights run

  16. Mike N says:

    Re Rathvinden, on normal spring like ground who was the last Novice to win it?
    I’m wondering if people are latching on to the fact that because Rule The World won it’s OK but it did chuck it down the day before which affected the result. That race has never felt right to me so it may stop me backing a Novice on spring like ground until one proves RTW wasn’t a fluke.

  17. daniel edwards says:

    Undoubtedly novices are going to have a hard time of it in the national and it is going to be rare that they win it.

    BUT he’s had ten chase runs (more than total recall) so a lack of experience isn’t a worry for me.

    The difficult question is judging his form in novice races as against what he’ll need in the National.

    My view prior to Cheltenham was that his form as a novice wasn’t of the standard needed. .. BUT the way he travelled in that race at Cheltenham and the way he saw it out has convinced me he’s good enough.

  18. daniel edwards says:

    And I think another positive is that in recent years that 4 mile race has thrown up numerous top quality horses…

  19. daniel edwards says:

    Sorry, 11 chase runs

  20. mike campo says:

    I’ve placed my vote and the main substance of my GN bet is on as follows:

    Minella Rocco (Nap) 30 pts win
    Milansbar 35 pts win + 0.5 pts Top 5 place ( 35.5 pts win total )
    Raz De Maree 24 pts win + 1 pts Top 6 place ( 25 pts win total )
    The Last Samuri 5 pts win + 1 pts Top 5 place ( 6 pts win total )
    Rathvinden 3.5 pts win ( May back again on the day if he runs)
    Final Nudge 7 pts win

    The above is in order of Vote and pts are for gross profit
    Net profit is minus 5.5 pts total stake.
    Unlikely to bet again until the day when I might make a few tweaks or additions
    Have others for part stake recovery or are non runners but I am looking to one of my top 3 selections above to be able to claim success.
    Good luck team.

  21. daniel edwards says:

    It gets even worse….

    Turns out with the withdrawals yesterday I’ve only actually covered the first 20 to get my 6 stats horses…..

    Grrrrrr

  22. mike campo says:

    JJ.
    I noticed your comment about being put off Rocco if he ended up top weight because of history.
    I’ve read loads of comments about being impossible to win a GN with top weight as I did about the 3 mile win stat prior to Rule The World.
    Red Rum carried 12 stone to victory in 1974 and that might have been the last time a top weight has won (Not sure whether he ended up top weight in 1977 with 11.08)
    That was 44 years ago but there are 40 runners in the GN so the law of averages says once every 40 years.
    JJ’s Dont Push It in 2010 was the highest weight on 11.05 since Grittar in 1982 and we’ve since had Neptunes Collonges on 11.06 and Many Clouds on 11.09.
    ie they’ve been creeping up over the last 8 years.
    A major stat seems to be regularly broken recently, so maybe the Top Weight stat is a positive !

  23. daniel edwards says:

    Wisdom used to be don’t back a horse over 11 stone

    Then in 2005 we had Hedgehunter….

    Since then we’ve had (from memory)

    Mon mome
    Ballabriggs
    Don’t push it
    Neptune Collenges
    Many Clouds

    So 6 in 13 years

    Remember when you couldn’t possibly back a French bred either,…. Then we had Mon Mome

    Ah 100/1 shot they said, a total fluke….

    I’ve lost track of how many French breds we’ve had in the 8 years since!

  24. mike campo says:

    Absolutely Daniel.
    With hindsight, for many of us who picked winners in the past by rigorously adhering to a list of stats, it looks like more luck than judgement.
    That said, I still do it !

  25. JJ says:

    Fair points both.
    I suppose you have to appreciate that the race has evolved over time and will continue to do so.
    I think the reason why we have seen more winners over 11st over recent years is due to the overall calibre of horse being better, horses towards the top end of the handicap are now more likely to handle the weight.
    Minella Rocco certainly has the frame to handle the weight, and he’s used to big weights on his back, but he would certainly need to bring his A game to defy it.

  26. daniel edwards says:

    Agree 100 percent JJ with that last sentiment

  27. Lescargot says:

    Has anyone got any views about how many will still come out and what the bottom OR will be ?

  28. daniel edwards says:

    I wouldn’t want to back anybody below 45 at the moment Corbs

    Probably want to take a look down to 50 just in case they slip in at the last and there’s one there you fancy

  29. miinnehoma says:

    Can you see this -

    miinnehoma says:
    March 20, 2018 at 4:43 pm

    In the last 3 yrs No. 48,47 & 48 were the last in.
    So 45, Milansbar & 46, Final Nudge should be ok.

  30. Lescargot says:

    Genie IN Abottle 7 year old

    I don’t know if anyone has had a look at GIB, if they have sorry I missed it.

    11 chases since oct 16
    2 h/cap chases
    3 mile ptp winner
    3 mile maiden hurdle winner
    highest Chase RPR 155 oct 17, 2.6f , chase TS 124
    hurdle or 134, highest RPR 128, TS 104

    So not that impressive and is only a 7 year old, and only 2 h/c chases. His Dosage is okay but his CMP stamina is high,

    A GENIE IN ABOTTLE (IRE) DP = 2-0-5-3-0 (10) DI = 0.82 CD = 0.10
    CMP = 4-5-2-10-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.50 Triads = 11-17-21

    So a 19 stamina figure might account for the RP analysis in Tiger Roll’s 2017 NHC:

    NHC 2017

    Beaten 23 lengths “A Genie In Abottle was strongly fancied after finishing runner-up in Grade 3 company last month and the Irish raider had the assistance of Jamie Codd, a crack Irish amateur. He just got too far back on the second lap and little went right, on ground lively enough”.

    So he could get too far back and another who needs it soft.

    However, there is some interesting collateral form:

    Beaten 39 lengths in the Hennessy, never got into it but giving Total Recall 5lbs and Regal Encore 2lbs beaten 30 lengths. In the GN has a 7lbs pull with TR and a 1 lb pull with RE.

    In Jan 2017 he was beaten 3/4 lengths by Anibale Fly in a grade 3, 3m nov chase, and now has a
    10 lb pull.

    On soft grd he reversed form with Tiger Roll beating him 1.5 lengths in a 2.7f listed race on getting 6lbs, HOWEVER HE IS NOW 5 LBS WORSE OFF WITH Tiger Roll

    He also has a nice piece of last time out form.

    LTO RP analysis against BellsHill grade 3 3.1f chase soft, beaten 4-3/4 lengths getting 2 lbs

    “A Genie In Abottle disputed the lead and after most disappointing efforts at Newbury and Gowran this was a bit more like it. He jumped fairly well and kept finding a bit for pressure which was being administered from a long way out. He’s another potential National horse, the further he goes the better, and this was most encouraging”.

    So maybe there could be a scenario, with a soft ground GN, with GIB getting outpaced but staying on into a 5th/ 6th place. He is currently 80/1 with B365 for 5p. Could be an EW on the day if its soft and we 6 places can be secured.

    Any thoughts?

    Thanks miinnehoma for the comment on bottom weight. hope Final Nudge gets in, and as someone posted on the blog recently, maybe he will have a wind op!!

  31. daniel edwards says:

    Funnily enough I looked at those collateral form lines too and ruled him out all together on the basis thereof!

    Far too high in the weights for me and nothing to suggest he can manage it. If he completes he’s done well I think….

  32. daniel edwards says:

    He is 3lb worse than Bellshill for that Bobbyjo run where he lost by 5l(and I’m sure Bellshill had more in the tank if needed AND it was his first run of the season). So he’s roughly 8lb in the red there.

    He was beaten 23l by Tiger Roll in the 4 miler last year, and is only getting a single lb for that, so in the red hugely there too.

    And he’s only getting 10lb from the horse that just came 3rd in the Gold Cup, so to be weighted well he’d need to have been capable of finishing top 6 (or thereabouts) in that race.

    As I say, not for me, particularly in a strong year with so many potential winners our there.

    I reckon there will be some good horses thus year who run well and don’t even make the top 10.

  33. pablo says:

    Comparison between RTW and Rarhvinden…

    Rate has only ever run in beginners and novice chases

    RTW ran in three big field handicap in open company – 2nd in Irish National, 3rd in Kerry National and 5th in Thyestes

    He also had proper (non-handicap) Graded form overhurdles including 2nd in Ballymore at the Festival

    Yes technically he was a novice but in his second season and with considerably better form and back class off 148 than most of the entries this year

  34. pablo says:

    ^ Rate should be Rath

  35. Mike N says:

    Genie Ina Bottle will be tailed off on spring ground.

  36. daniel edwards says:

    Don’t disagree with that Pablo, but just to note Rathvinden got within 5 lengths of faugheen in the Neptune at the festival.

  37. Seven Towers says:

    Hoping the analysis for this weekend’s outing for Seeyouatmidnight will read something like,

    “Led until saddle slipped, pulled up 1st”

    Crazy new rule that will, I am sure if they persist with it, one day be amended to “must have COMPLETED a chase during current season”.

  38. MarkB says:

    Aside my Tiger Roll bet, I’m holding off betting until the day of the Grand National itself. I’m hoping BET 365 do their usual promotion and return 50% of my stake, they usually pay out an extra place or two and traditionally the odds are pushed out mid morning on almost the entire field as bookies compete for bets on the day most households will place them, also i’ll know the ground and the runners.
    However this will be an extreme test of my patience, for which I have none. :-)

  39. JJ says:

    Or for better comedic value…

    “Stumbled badly start, unseated rider”

  40. daniel edwards says:

    Mark B

    That pushing of the prices now happens the night before

    If you wait till 9am they’ll have gone back out by then

  41. crisp73 says:

    Weight – i think Minella Rocco has a big chance if he gets his ground and if he can rediscover GC17 form…

    but just for posterity no GN winner who didn’t have weight compressed has carried 14lbs or more than bottom weight since Corbiere. I don’t think MC would have beaten Saint Are had he rightfully been carrying his OR mark of 165 and not GN160 and ditto NC beating Sunnyhillboy. Big weights will surely occasionally win but the records show it’s a big ask. DPIs year bottom weight was 10-5 ditto HH and Mon Mome’s years.

    I’ve only backed Tiger Roll thus far but, unless I’ve missed something his form in hcaps is shocking!

  42. pablo says:

    Apart from the his in the Munster National, Crisp

  43. pablo says:

    ^ Apart from his

  44. Corbiere says:

    So that’s currently 11st 4lb Total Recall and could be 11st 2lb, which would mean below Cause of Causes.

  45. pablo says:

    Be interesting to see how well the horses that ran well at Cheltenham get on at Aintree

    Neptune ran on heavy in his final run before the GN in 2012, but that was 8 weeks earlier than the GN

    Other winners have run well in the Bobbyjo on dodgy ground, but that is usually a small field affair run 6 weeks prior to the GN

  46. pablo says:

    Other winners and placed horses ^^

    Having a bad typing day today

  47. MarkB says:

    Daniel, last year on Bet 365 prices got pushed out the night before, shortened first thing and then pushed out around lunchtime once more, I only know as I’d to put a lot of bets on for the family.
    Cheers

  48. Systemsman says:

    Should have my final list out tomorrow morning (subject to any withdrawals).
    I can only say the bookies have this one well and truly sorted out – however a 10/1 – 18/1 winner is not to be sniffed at. This race has changed for sure in the last five years so its no surprise now if the winner is in the top ten of the betting a i think is most likely from my work bar the odd possible outsider i have for you.

    Question:
    Anibale Fly is the prime target the Irish National or Grand National?

  49. daniel edwards says:

    I’ll bear that in mind mark, thanks for the tip off!

  50. daniel edwards says:

    Systems

    Time to ditch Last Samari old boy! Can’t win. Got his conditions and was well in two years ago. Much higher in the weights now and I’d wager he’ll run much more like last year than two years ago!

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