Racing Tips and Trends for April 2014

Please use this thread for all your chat, tips and trends for this month

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Scottish National 2014

The dust barely has time to settle on the Aintree Grand National and we are on to the next big staying steeplechase of the season; The Scottish National at Ayr.

Please use this page for your tips, analysis and chat on this great race which takes place on 12/4/14.

I’ll add a full analysis later in the week but for now I’ll just open the page up so our readers can get cracking on this race.

Even if you didn’t manage a profitable race at Aintree I hope you all enjoyed it and we learnt a bit more about the type of horse to look for in the Grand National.

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Grand National 2014 – Final Declarations

The waiting is finally over and we now are pretty sure of which horses will line-up in the Grand National 2014.

The only way the final forty will change hereafter is if there is a non-runner between now and 9am tomorrow morning. If there is a non-runner then Jim Dreaper’s Goonyella will be drafted into the field. After that cut-off time the field will just reduce in size if there are subsequent non-runners.

Last year’s third placed horse Teaforthree is clinging on to favouritism under strong pressure from former Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude. Teaforthree looks a great bet to finish in the money again but previous placed horses that return do not have a great winning record and I just wonder if he might not have the pace to get home in front.

The inevitable AP McCoy price slide began yesterday when it was announced the champion jockey was leaning towards Double Seven and that plunge looks set to continue now that the champ has confirmed that will be his ride this year. McCoy didn’t seem to be overly confident about any of his possible rides when interviewed lately and it could be that Double Seven‘s early season winning streak has weighted him out of hitting the frame on Saturday.

The 2014 Grand National has a classy look to it this year with former King George and Gold Cup winner Long Run due to take his chance along with former Arkle and Bet365 Gold Cup winner Tidal Bay. The handicapper has given Tidal Bay in particular a really good chance at the official ratings but it’s a touch ask for a thirteen-year-old to carry top weight to victory in a Grand National. Don’t be surprised if he makes the frame though.

There has been money in recent days and weeks for Burton Port and The Package but both have questions to answer.

Burton Port was always thought to be on the small side to win a Grand National by former trainer Nicky Henderson and despite finishing second last time out he has to prove that a recent wind operation will provide enough improvement to be competitive in the world’s greatest race.

Similarly David Pipe’s The Package has been very fragile over recent years and has appeared to run his best races when fresh. He also seemed to not enjoy himself when tackling these fences in 2010 and he looks a risky proposition at the current odds.

Richard Newland appears to have worked the oracle once again with Pineau De Re, improving the eleven-year-old considerably in his last two races. If the improvement continues he looks to have a fine chance of this rating and the price looks decent.

The changes in the fences over the last few years has started to increase the chances of those horses who are prone to making mistakes and this appears to have played into the hands of Michael Scudamore’s Monbeg Dude. Blessed with plenty of stamina and at home on all surfaces, Monbeg Dude‘s jumping has always been a concern although he has fallen just once in his career. That said he does tend to make mistakes and whilst an error strewn round will not be good enough with the changes to the fences he may be able to get away with the odd mistake. The nine-year-old gelding will be ridden by Paul Carberry and as long as his pilot does not get too detached from the leaders, he looks to have an excellent chance in the 2014 Grand National.

SELECTIONS:

2pts win Monbeg Dude
1pt EW Pineau De Re

Good luck to all our contributors on Grand National Blog

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Aintree Festival 3rd-5th April 2014

Hi everyone,

Please use this thread for all your non-Grand National Aintree tips, chat and trends

Not long to go now!

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Grand National 2014 – The Home Straight

Apologies for the delay in starting a new thread.

Working on Grand National Guide is taking nearly all of my time at the moment so please e-mail me if there are any issues on here that need sorting.

Thanks to Showlad for letting me know about needing the new thread and he has suggested the Home Straight title.

In answer to his other question, the GN Form Tool should be working ok and the info should be correct.

Obviously there is a huge amount of detail to be entered for so many horses so there may still be a chance that some of the info is not 100% correct but I would be hopeful that mistakes are minimal. Please do let me know direct if you spot anything.

Good luck to you all in finding the 2014 Grand National winner.

Darren

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Grand National Guide Form Tool – We Need Your Help!

Hi everyone,

I have recently been updating the information for Grand National Guide’s From Tool:

Grand National Guide Form Tool

Obviously this is a marathon task and we would like you to let us know if you spot any mistakes/errors etc when using the tool.

Please do remember with the offical rating section I have used the CURRENT official rating and not the rating given for running in the Grand National.

If you spot any errors in the tool or anywhere else on the site please let me know. Also, if you have any questions or requests regarding the blog please also drop me a line and I will do my best to correct any issues you may be having. Contacting me direct may be the quickest way of bringing to my attention any problems we may be having as I can’t always devote as much time as I would like to reading through all the various threads.

My contact e-mail is:

Darren@olbg.com

Thanks again for all your continued input and support

Darren

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Grand National 2014 Countdown

Just four weeks to go until the 2014 Grand National and with the final pieces of form to be added to the puzzle next week at the Cheltenham Festival, now is the time to start drawing up a shortlist for who you might be backing at Aintree.

From now on the prices available start to contract dramatically so if you already have your selection worked out now might be a good time to start investing (if you haven’t already). Once the Cheltenham Festival is over most National Hunt fans attention will automatically turn to Aintree and the bookmakers start to take evasive action.

Last year’s third place horse, Teaforthree, is the current clear favourite and a bold showing in next week’s Gold Cup could possibly see him reach a single figure price. Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene has apparently been lighting up the gallops at Seven Barrows and with that horse already successful over the Grand National fences he looks another who could come in for significant support over the next week or so.

Monbeg Dude had a recent run out at Doncaster and whilst the course and trip may not have been played to his strengths, he appeared to take a marked step back in his jumping with the mistakes that used to litter his performances returning to a worrying effect. His penultimate run at Cheltenham had suggested that his jumping problems might be behind him but perhaps Paul Carberry’s style of racing does not suit him now that he is no longer so well handicapped?

Godsmejudge was another horse who appeared to do his Grand National prospects more harm than good when running another lifeless race at Doncaster and it would not be a surprise if his connections decide to avoid running at Aintree.

The Grand National picture is bound to start getting clearer over the next week or so but if you already have a clear fancy for this year’s race please let us know your reasoning here on this thread.

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Grand National 2014 Voting Page

Please use this page to collate your votes on the 2014 Grand National

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Racing tips and trends for March 2014

Please use this thread for all your general tips for March.

Try to avoid adding Cheltenham tips here – there is a dedicated Cheltenham thread.

Don’t forget to enter our Cheltenham ticket competition – entries close tomorrow. Full details here:

Cheltenham ticket competition

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Cheltenham Festival

Hi everyone,

I see that a few of you have been adding some posts and selections for the Cheltenham Festival so please continue with your Cheltenham views on this thread.

We also have a forum dedicated to Cheltenham on OLBG – click here – and it would be good to hear from Grand National Blog readers over there

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