The dust has settled after the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown and the early market for the 2009 Grand National is starting to take shape with some National favourites and some new names for us all to ponder their suitability for the great race next April.

Over the next few days I’ll have a quick run through the runners in the betting and just outline my initial thoughts on them (plenty of time for trends analysis later on) and why not come back on and just let us all know what your initial feelings are about the prices for the 2009 race?

Denman heads the betting with a number of firms but connections have stated that 2010 is a more likely National target for the Gold Cup winner so it may be wise to exclude him from our early scan of the prices.

Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin and Snowy Morning come next in the betting at 20/1 and, for me, the only one that would have any appeal here would be Snowy Morning. Comply Or Die was a brilliant winner but will be punished severely by the handicapper and he has always been a rather fragile horse so any long term punts would be pretty hazardous. Butler’s Cabin looked to be going well when coming to grief at Bechers second time around but I didn’t like the look of him in some of his runs last year and I fear there may be more than a touch of temperament about him which may get worse. I wouldn’t want to be involved with him ante-post.

Snowy Morning really surprised me in the National as I thought he would struggle to get round. Bar his mistake at the last he performed really well for a young horse and with a programme mapped out for the National he could find the necessary improvement to offset any rise in the weights he may incur. 20/1 isn’t particularly generous but he must have a chance.

Iris De Balme wouldn’t interest me at all. I’m always very suspicious of the likelihood of horses who win from miles out of the handicap maintaining that level of form when they return to their true mark. I’d have to see more from him before I’d make him a serious National candidate.

Hear The Echo won the Irish National well and that race is one I like as a long term indicator for the National itself but I have big doubts about his jumping. He has already hit the deck four times in his eighteen starts over obstacles and that is too many in my book for a potential National winner. That said Fairyhouse is a really hard track to jump round so it may be that this area of his game is improving. I didn’t like his performance in the race before the Irish National when he looked to be travelling well and went out very quickly. He wouldn’t be carrying my money.

So that’s the first half dozen in the betting. Of those the only one of interest to me would be Snowy Morning and I’m not sure I would be tempted by the prices on offer. How about you?

Let us know your thoughts and check back in the next few days when we will be looking at the next six horses in the current betting.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 2 Comments »

Earlier this week the news was released that the 2005 Grand National winner Hedgehunter had been retired.

The Trevor Hemmings owned twelve year old had sustained a slight injury in the race this year but still managed to finish 13th but connections felt that the time was right to retire this most consistent of recent Grand National performers.

Hedgehunters complete Aintree Record

2004 Fell (at the last fence having run a great race and still being booked for a place)

2005 WON (One of the easiest winners of a Grand National in recent times with previous National winners Bindaree, Amberleigh House and Monty’s Pass well beaten)

2006 2nd (beaten just over six lengths by Numbersixvalverde with 11 stone 12 lbs)

2007 9th

2008 13th

In addition to his Aintree triumph Hedgehunter recorded four other career victories and nearly £800,000 in win and place prize money and finished runner up to War Of Attrition in a Cheltenham Gold Cup.

He was one of the best National winners in recent years and we wish him a happy retirement. Copy and paste the link below into your browser for highlights of Hedgehunter’s finest hour when winning the 2005 Grand National.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_4420000/newsid_4428600/4428669.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&ms3=6&ms_javascript=true&bbcws=2

Posted in Grand National History | 3 Comments »

The Scottish National 2008 will be the first in our series of races where we will open up a thread for all to discuss the the individual merits of the race itself and any potential bearing it may have on the 2009 Grand National

Previous Winners

A good place to start is to look at the basic details of the last ten previous winners:

Scottish National Winners/Age/Weight/SP/Official Rating

2007 Hot Weld 8-9-9 14/1 124

2006 Run For Paddy 10-10-2 33/1 135

2005 Joe’s Edge 8-10-0 (5oh) 20/1 132

2004 Grey Abbey 10-11-12 12/1 148

2003 Ryalux 10-10-5 15/2 140

2002 Take Control 8-10-6 20/1 140

2001 Gingembre 7-11-2 12/1 137

2000 Paris Pike 8-11-0 5/1JF 143

1999 Young Kenny 8-11-10 5/2F 140

1998 Baronet 8-10-0 (3oh) 7/1 133

Analysis

The victory of Hot Weld was something of a trend breaker last year in that he did not have a top five finish last time out and had a low official rating. If we look upon Hot Weld as a one off it leaves these basic requirements:

Aged 7-10 (10/10)
Official Rating 132-148 (9/10)
Finished in top 5 on last outing (9/10)

In addition no horse that has run in that seasons Grand National has gone on to win the Scottish National so it would appear we can discount any horse who lines up after a trip round the Grand National fences. We can also discount those horses with a poor jumping record as only 2001 winner Gingembre had a record that included more than two falls or unseats.

Stamina will also be a huge consideration and nine out of the last ten winners had demonstrated winning form over at least 3 miles.

So add in:

No more than two falls or unseats (9/10)
Stamina proven at three miles (9/10)

And it looks also safe to remove any horse following on from Aintree.By my reckoning this leaves a shortlist of:

Himalayan Trail
Old Benny
Royal County Star
Boychuk
Newbay Prop

The two that appeal to me most out of those are Midlands Grand National winner Himalayan Trail who would be aiming to complete the same double as Young Kenny and Philip Hobbs’ Boychuk. The former’s claims are more obvious but Boychuk’s recent run at Aintree could be misleading as I thought he was staying on again at the finish whereas the RP comment is ‘weakened after three out’.

Hobbs has obviously targeted this race in recent years with Parsons Legacy 3rd in 2007, Double Honour 4th in 2005 and Gunther McBride favourite for the race and booked for a place at least when falling in 2003. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boychuk puts in an improved performance in the Scottish National.

Are there any trends that you would add or take away from this list?

We will be looking at how the Scottish National has effected the Grand National over the years and how the 2008 may have a bearing on the Aintree race for 2009 in the days to come. Keep an eye out for those posts and keep us updated on your ideas on the Scottish National.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 58 Comments »

Hi everyone and thanks again for all your comments and input over the last few months.

We’ve been chatting behind the scenes here at Grand National Blog and we’ve decided that we will have an analysis page on all the races we think that might have some relevance to future Grand Nationals, starting with the Scottish National on the 19th April. I’ll start a page up with the basic trends in the next couple of days and we can start cracking away at that race as soon as possible, although I see some of you have beaten me to it!
A number of people have mentioned the possibility of analyzing the Derby, Leger, Guineas etc but, at the moment, we are focusing primarily on races that have a bearing on the Grand National and, as such, we won’t be focusing on any flat races.
There is a flourishing horseracing forum on the OLBG site (see link below) and this would be a good place to start any trend based discussion on the Flat Classics.

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/

We will be looking to build up a list of races to focus on throughout the season that has a bearing on the National such as The Becher Chase, Irish National, William Hill Handicap, Eider Chase (Now that Comply Or Die has broken the bad record!), etc etc. Give us your thoughts on the races you would like to see included and we’ll come back with a list in the not too distant future.
Hope to see you all back as regular contributors throughout 2008 and into 2009.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 4 Comments »

Grand National 2008: The Result

1st – Comply Or Die 7/1JF
2nd – King Johns Castle 20/1
3rd – Snowy Morning 16/1
4th – Slim Pickings 10/1

Well done to all those who picked the winner (and placed horses).

Loads of tips for the winner throughout this blog – good luck to you all!

COMPLY OR DIE

Any concerns about the closeness of his win in the Eider Chase were dismissed in no uncertain term and the trends followers are in heaven as David Pipe’s chaser ticked nearly all the boxes required of a potential winner.
In the race itself he travelled and jumped well and when faced with a battle after the last his superior stamina proved decisive.
A textbook performance and every chance he can come back and defend his title.

KING JOHNS CASTLE

Plenty of doubts about his stamina were seemingly unfounded as he has run a cracker in only finding the Pipe horse too good. Held up way off the pace in Carberry style, he worked his way into the race and looked to be going as well as the winner going into the final stages of the race.
Possibility he could come back next year with more experience of longer distances and be an even bigger threat.

SNOWY MORNING

Looked to be going as well as any turning for home and jumping concerns were unfounded as this young horse performed with great credit. Due to go up in the weights and it may just be that this was his beat chance of success.

SLIM PICKINGS

Great waiting ride from Barry Geraghty trying to eek out every ounce of stamina from Slim Pickings but unfortunately it wasn’t quite enough for the second year running.

Hard Luck Stories and Disappointments

Tony McCoy won’t want a picture of Bechers Brook on his wall when he retires as he endured yet another fall at the famous old fence when looking to be going well on Butler’s Cabin.

Ante-Post punters that took advantage of the 25/1 and less about Cloudy Lane never really looked likely to collect and it seemed a combination of stamina limitations and a first look at the fences that were the downfall of the McCain horse.

The day of the race plunge on Vodka Bleu was hard to fathom and the winning rider’s rejected choice of ride never looked happy and Murphy must have breathed a sigh of relief that he didn’t follow his heart and go with Vodka Bleu.

We will analyse the race at length later on in the week but give us your initial thoughts here.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 27 Comments »

Trying to find the winner of the Grand National is tricky enough but trying to forecast the first, second and third? Come on, you must be joking?

No, not at all. I genuinely believe that exactas and trifectas are a great way to try and have a big win from a relatively small stake.

More and more often, through whatever system you might use, big handicap races can be narrowed down to a short list of five or six horses that you have to make your final selection from. This gives you a perfect platform from which to perm your exactas and trifectas.

How Much Can You Win?

In the last five years the Exacta and Trifecta have returned the following amounts:

2007
Exacta 667.60
Trifecta 18020.60

2006
Exacta 96.90
Trifecta 401.30

2005
Exacta 612.70
Trifecta 44338.60

2004
Exacta 124.50
Trifecta 18711.60

2003
Exacta 533.90
Trifecta 27120.20

Even the lowest of these would be a nice return and the prospect of a large payment should you strike it lucky and get the 1-2-3 is very appealing.

How Much Does It Cost?

A combination of 4, 5, or 6 horses would be as follows:

4 horses
Exactas = 12 bets
Trifectas = 24 bets
5 horses
Exactas = 20 bets
Trifectas = 60 bets
6 horses
Exactas = 30 bets
Trifectas = 120 bets

Why not perm up your main selections and put in a big price outsider in the hope of boosting your winnings? I tried this bet last year and and came painfully close with Mckelvey, Slim Pickings and Philson Run. To say Silver Birch is not my favourite horse would be an understatement!

If you are unsure of who to go for why not try a combination of the main fancies from our selections thread. Most of the stats men and shrewd judges on this blog have been giving their opinions and I hope they won’t mind if I gather together what I think are the three most popular selections and the most popular outsider and give them as a combination exacta and trifecta:

Comply Or Die
D’Argent
Point Barrow
Black Apalachi (Close between this one and Naunton Brook, Backbeat, Baily Breeze so take your pick)

Try a 12 x 1 point Exacta and 24 x 0.2 point Trifecta (i.e. it will cost you £16.80 if you deal in £1 points!). Place the bet with Tote bookmakers.

Good Luck To All

Good luck to everyone today, thanks for all your contributions and lets hope all the horses and jockeys come back safe and sound. Make sure you stick around though as we will continuing the blog throughout the year working towards the Grand National in 2009!

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 7 Comments »

The highlights of Day Two of the Aintree Festival were the victories of Big Bucks, Pierrot Lunaire, Gwanako and Voy Por Ustedes.

The first three named are all trained by Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and at S.P’s of 11/4, 7/1 and 5/1 his army of supporters must have taken the bookies to the cleaners.

However, the last named, Voy Por Ustedes, put a hole in Nicholls’ day when flooring Cheltenham Champion Chaser Master Minded by a comfortable 18 lengths in the Melling Chase.

Alan King’s former Champion saw out the 2½ mile trip much better than Master Minded who returned a very short looking 2/5F (with the benefit of hindsight!).

Pierrot Lunaire franked the Binocular form with an authoriative display in the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle and Gwanako defied his young age and inexperience over fences to win a very competitive renewal of the Topham.

All eyes now move towards the Saturday card and the Grand National itself: Let battle commence!

Posted in Aintree 2008 | No Comments »

Do you know who will win the 2009 Grand National?

Following a suggestion on one of the threads on this blog, we would like to let everyone know that we will be running a £100 tipster competition for the 2009 Grand National. Full details will follow next week but it will involve registering your selections for the race at various stages throughout the year – possibly in May, December, February and just before the race.
Complete details of entries requirements, dates and prizes will be available on this site in the near future so keep checking back for information on how to register.

We Never Close!

I plan to be posting throughout the year on all topics Grand National related and it would be great it if as many of the users would stick around as possible as we really appreciate your thoughts and contributions.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 7 Comments »

Get the videos ready: not only is The Topham a great race to have a bet in it is a valuable tool for assessing the likely chances of future Grand National winners. Three National winners in the last ten years alone have gone on from a run in The Topham to winning a National (Bindaree, Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House) so this race will be necessary viewing for those of us thinking past just the 2008 Grand National.

The field is littered with horses suggested as National possibles, including those who may have run in the big race but for failing to make the cut. Horses such as:

In The High Grass
You’re Special
Irish Raptor
Bothar Na
Pak Jak
Dunbrody Millar
Theatre Knight
I Hear Thunder

But who will win The Topham?

The Topham tends to fall to horses at the lower end of the handicap and this race has apparently been the target all season of Willie Mullins’ Bothar Na. He has had two spins round the fences before and the trainer has won the race before in 2002 with It’s Time For A Win.

Other horses who may appeal at bigger odds are former Sefton Chase winner I Hear Thunder and the Ferdy Murphy trained You’re Special. The latter would be a little older than some recent winners but had been talked of as a National ‘type’ for some time and it will be interesting to see how he gets on over these fences.

Your thoughts?

Who do you fancy? Are there any of the field who you think could potentially come back for next year’s National? Come back on after the race as well and let us know what you thought of the race and if there were any clues to take away for future Nationals.

Posted in Aintree 2008 | 2 Comments »

Aintree 2008 got off to a great start with a superb days racing with some impressive performances and a really close finish to the highlight of the day, the Bowl Chase.

Novice Hurdlers Elusive Dream and Binocular recorded quality victories in their respective races with the latter gaining quotes as low as 7/1 for the 2009 Champion Hurdle after the race. Both look hurdlers to follow.

In the opener Blazing Bailey responded to blinkers for the first time and a strong ride from Robert Thornton to see off Faasel and the decidedly uncomfortable looking World Hurdle Champ, Inglis Drever.

Howard Johnson was quoted after the race as saying that this would be the last time that Inglis Drever would run at Aintree.

The race over the big National fences produced one of the best riding performances I have seen for a long time from an Amateur Rider. The winner of the race, Christy Beamish, made a terrible mistake at Bechers and all but fell when seemingly travelling well. Rider Josh Guerriero made a great recovery but almost as impressive was the fact that he refused to panic and gave his mount plenty of time to work back into the race. He came back to take control two fences from home and stayed on resolutely to see off double Aintree Foxhunters Champion Katarino for a nine length success.

Guerriero is attached to the Philip Hobbs yard and looks a very promising addition to that stables great record with young jockeys.

The race of the day though was the Bowl Chase where the impetus of the race rocked from Our Vic to Kauto Star and finally back again with the Pond House horse putting up the performance of his career to come back on the run in to head the former Gold Cup winner on the line for a ‘nose’ victory.

So, first day plaudits from this viewer go to Josh Guerriero and also to Our Vic. But who will be the heroes of Day Two?

Posted in Aintree 2008 | 3 Comments »