Grand National 2018 – March Forfeit Stage

The latest forfeit stage for the Grand National took place recently and horses such as Outlander, Edwulf and Bristol De Mai were taken out of the race. A total of 73 horses remain at this stage with, at the moment, Willie Mullins’ Childrens List the last horse guaranteed to make the race if connections so choose.

The bookies are currently struggling to split Blaklion and Total Recall for favouritsim, with Gordon Elliott’s Cheltenham Cross County winner, Tiger Roll, also attracting plenty of support.

Please add your thoughts, trends and tips for the 2018 Grand National to this page

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1,074 Responses to Grand National 2018 – March Forfeit Stage

  1. mike campo says:

    GG
    Lads and Hills currently boosting odds on line and competing with each other.
    Might be worth taking some of that, even if waiting to place the rest later.
    Your small stakes bets would be my preferred but what do I know !

  2. GreenGoddess says:

    WEATHER WATCH:

    Really hard to call at this point but the wet bits are tonight through to lunchtime tomorrow,nearly hours of Friday and Friday night into Saturday morning.

    The Friday is the wildcard, the different weather models aren’t in agreement at this point with wild variation on amounts of rain, anything from 2mm to 15mm.

    We wait…..

  3. GreenGoddess says:

    Cheers Mike!

  4. miinnehoma says:

    The GN Form tool is a cracker but has a few mistakes.
    Have looked at the final 40 with these 3 stats -

    1- Last Race finished in top 9.- 23/24 (DPI).
    2- Season Runs at least 4 or 2+ with a win. – 24/24
    3- Days Since Last Run 60 or less. – 24/24

    Leaves us with 13 -
    02-Blaklion
    03-Anibale Fly
    04-The Last Samuri
    05-Valseur Lido
    10-Shantou Flyer
    14-Tiger Roll
    15-Regal Encore
    27-I Just Know
    35-Captain Redbeard
    36-Houblon Des Obeaux
    38-Milansbar
    39-Final Nudge
    40-Double Ross

    If we then use Top 3 @ 28f+ or won a big Hcap in the last 12 months. – 24/24.

    Leaves us with 9-
    02-Blaklion
    03-Anibale Fly
    04-The Last Samuri
    14-Tiger Roll
    15-Regal Encore
    27-I Just Know
    36-Houblon Des Obeaux
    38-Milansbar
    39-Final Nudge

    My own choice would be these 5 + 4
    (have dumped Vicente & Ucella from my org.8).

    14-Tiger Roll
    26-Raz De Maree
    36-Houblon Des Obeaux
    38-Milansbar
    39-Final Nudge
    +
    10-Shantou Flyer
    15-Regal Encore
    17-Chase The Spud
    40-Double Ross

  5. miinnehoma says:

    3- Days Since Last Run 60 or less. – 24/24
    Should be 23/24 stat (OFA).

  6. miinnehoma says:

    We have 18 with a top 3 @ 28f+ (any value).

    01 —–4P4F Minella Rocco,69 days,8 yrs, 11-10
    02 ——212 Blaklion,56,9 11-09
    04 —–2243 The Last Samuri,31,10 11-07
    09 —–0105 Perfect Candidate,77,11 11-02
    13 ——2UP Vicente,32,9 10-13
    14 —–2P51 Tiger Roll,31,8 10-12
    16 ——474 Vieux Lion Rouge,56,9 10-12
    17 ——1PP Chase The Spud,49,10 10-11
    19 –———3 Seeyouatmidnight,21,10 10-11
    20 ——F13 Gas Line Boy,98,12 10-10
    24 —–—PP Saint Are,31,12 10-09
    26 —–F221 Raz De Maree,98,13 10-08
    27 —–3412 I Just Know,28,8 10-07
    29 ——663 Baie Des Iles,62,7 10-07
    36 –1663P3 Houblon Des Obeaux,20,11 10-06
    37 —-PP1FP Bless The Wings,12,13 10-05
    38 -63U152 Milansbar,28,11 10-05
    39 —–2359 Final Nudge,30,9 10-05

  7. miinnehoma says:

    If we use the old combo-

    20/24 Top 3 @ 28f+
    21/24 4+ runs.

    Leaves us with 10

    01 —–4P4F Minella Rocco,69 days,8 yrs, 11-10
    04 —–2243 The Last Samuri,31,10 11-07
    09 —–0105 Perfect Candidate,77,11 11-02
    14 —–2P51 Tiger Roll,31,8 10-12
    26 —–F221 Raz De Maree,98,13 10-08
    27 —–3412 I Just Know,28,8 10-07
    36 –1663P3 Houblon Des Obeaux,20,11 10-06
    37 —-PP1FP Bless The Wings,12,13 10-05
    38 -63U152 Milansbar,28,11 10-05
    39 —–2359 Final Nudge,30,9 10-05

  8. daniel edwards says:

    Whilst the faves get pushed out on the morning of the race, not so sure those at bigger prices do

    Probably better off getting on those ones you mention now I’d say

  9. GreenGoddess says:

    Cheers Daniel

  10. Dubacilla says:

    …and the rain keeps falling. It’s Raz time now! Could it be another Red Marauder year?
    IMO the more rain that falls, the more fragile the stats become.

    My 3 bets:
    Tiger Roll 50/1 – Was absolutely cruising at Chelts.
    Anibale Fly 16/1 – 3rd in GC was stellar form and 9lb well-in.
    Raz De Maree 40/1 – finishes fast in the mud over extreme distances 13yo or not.
    OUT Rathvinden 33/1. Grrr!

    Overall, i’m happy.

  11. moari says:

    William Hill still not gone nrnb in their shops.Think they are the only high st bookmaker not to do so

  12. MarkB says:

    This is the first year I can remember being this close to the race and having only backed two horses. Tiger Roll straight after the Cross Country, and two bets on Milansbar a small e/w and a moderate e/w, i will cash out the moderate one (possibly for a small profit) IF the grounds ends up better than soft.
    I’ll back another 5 on the day of the race, once I’ve an idea of the ground, currently got a shortlist of 10 that I need to lose a few from.

    Once again great posts by so many, and so many cases made to back almost all the field, but you can’t back them all and it’ll come down to my gut feeling later in this week.

  13. Lucky Vane2 says:

    Just read about Silviniaco Conti on the Racing Post, as he was a contender a few years back thought I’d should copy and paste this…

    Silviniaco Conti, twice a winner of the King George VI Chase in 2013 and 2014, has died after suffering an accident while team chasing, his former trainer Paul Nicholls reported on Monday.

    The 12-year-old, who had made a successful transition to his new career after retiring at the end of last season, was injured at an event on Sunday.

    Nicholls said: “I’m really upset to report that Silviniaco Conti has died following an accident while team chasing on Sunday.

    “He was a brilliant horse with great scope and won seven Grade 1 chases for us, including the King George VI in successive years, and also six Grade 2 chases.”

    Nicholls, writing on his Betfair blog, added: “Conti was a classy chaser who was at the top for six years and took over the mantle as stable star following the retirements of Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded and Big Buck’s.

    “He won over £1.152 million in prize-money for his owners Chris Giles and Sullivan Bloodstock before enjoying his new life in retirement with Charlotte Alexander near Stow-on-the-Wold over the past year.

    “The initial diagnosis at the vets on Monday suggested he would be fine, but unfortunately he took a turn for the worse and died early this afternoon.”

    As a team chaser Silviniaco Conti had already progressed from novice to open classes and was among a collection of former jumpings stars to take part in the Retraining of Racehorses parade during the Cheltenham Festival.

    R.I.P SC

  14. miinnehoma says:

    Could be a sign for Ucello.
    **********
    This is just my take on the last 24 GN winners.
    - these 13 races cover them.

    1; x Top 3 Grand National.
    7; x Top 3 Welsh National.
    4; x Top 2 Irish National.
    1; x Top 2 Scottish National.
    1; x Top 2 Midland National.
    1; x Top 2 Haydock GNT 28f.
    2; x Top 2 Servo 28f.
    2; x Top 2 Hennessy.
    1; x 1st Ulster National 28f.
    1; x 1st Kerry National 24f.
    1; x 1st Eider 33f.
    1; x 1st Kim Muir 26f.
    1; x 1st Warwick GNT 29f.
    ******************************
    We have 12 that match -
    02, ——–212 Blaklion,56——————2nd Hay gnt
    04, —–-2243 The last Samuri,31 ——–2nd GN
    06, —–111F Total Recall,29————–1st Hennessy
    13, ——–2UP Vicente, 32——————1st Scottish nat
    16, ——–-474 Vieux Lion Rouge,56—–1st Hay gnt
    17, ——1PP Chase The Spud, 49——1st Midlands GN
    24, ———PP Saint Are, 31———–——2nd GN
    26, —–-F221 Raz De Maree,98 ——––1st Welsh nat
    36, –1663P3 Houblon Des Obeaux,20—3rd Welsh nat
    37, ––PP1FP Bless The Wings,12 ——-2nd Irish nat
    38, -63U152 Milansbar,28 —————2nd Midlands GN
    39, —–2359 Final Nudge, 30———–3rd Welsh Nat

    No Tiger, might have to add 1st Munster National next year ?

  15. JJ says:

    Thanks for sharing that LV.
    Two sad losses these last few days, both at opposite ends of their careers.
    RIP

  16. kaiser says:

    I’ve always enjoyed reading your Grand National blog and marvel at the detail shown in many of the posts. Like most of the folks reading the inputs, I’ve spent hours reviewing form, discussing with friends and looking at trends, but at the end of the day, when you think ones been laid out for the race, is fairly weighted, will get its ground and in my opinion (most important) will stay, then it’s time to lump on BAIE DES LLES. I backed her a few times 2 weeks ago, and continued to do until last night (was 40/1 until a few hours ago). I see she’s 25/1 now in places and whilst she would be the biggest trends buster of all time I genuinely think she’ll win this race.
    I also want to mention 2 local horses that are trained just a few miles from me, Seeyouatmidnight and Captain Redbeard. Sandy Thompson’s horses aren’t running well, the ground in the Borders has been awful for more than a month and whilst he’s got a bit of class about him the horse is too short at 16/1. Captain Redbeard’s price has collapsed in recent weeks and while I did back it at 80/1 I’m not sure he’s much value now (28/1 in places)..That said, it’s great to see local Borders trainers getting their horses into the greatest race of all.

  17. Mike N says:

    Miine 1 more to consider. The Peter Marsh Chase 26f was won by Earth Summit but not included in your races list. The Dutchman won that race this season. Just wondering why it’s not there.

  18. baggy352 says:

    Surely earth summit won a Welsh?
    Isn’t it best performance rather than every rave they might have won?
    We could be including triumph hurdles in next year’s stats at that rate.

  19. Corbiere says:

    Still poring with rain, hasn’t stopped now since 6pm. Just checked Met Office Website and they have changed forecast again, they now show rain stopping at 2am. That would still be 8 hours non stop.Then they have it raining for 4 more hours tomorrow from 7-11am.
    Wednesday – Dry all day
    Thursday – Rain between 4am-7am
    Friday – Now Rain 7pm-10pm
    Saturday – Sunshine & Showers between 7am – 7pm
    Obviously weather systems so volatile, we are going to get an ever changing forecast every day up until the race.

  20. Mike N says:

    Dunno baggy thought it was a recognised chase over 3 miles plus hence the question.

  21. baggy352 says:

    It’s a good point. Minne what is the rationale?
    If it is recognised 3m+ staying chases can we include Peter marsh?
    If it is best performance where does Neptune gold cup 3rd fit in?

  22. daniel edwards says:

    I am going to keep it simple if it does come up soft and just add Milansbar as a saver

    Trying to go back to the drawing board this close to the off is just a recipe for headaches and disappointment!

    There’s I simply not enough time to let thoughts wash round in your head and develop properly!

    Luckily the horses i like should all be alright with some cut anyway, although I would much prefer we had good to soft as there are a few too many mud larks than I am comfortable with this year; if it is properly soft I think the shortlist would be about 20 long!

  23. Corbiere says:

    Weather Watch:
    Rain stopped during the night, apologies can’t be sure exactly when. It will probably say somewhere today how many mm fell and how course has taken it.
    Not started again yet.

  24. Corbiere says:

    Met Office Forecast update:
    Today Tuesday: Now back to saying it will stop at Noon
    Wednesday : Dry all day
    Thursday : Maybe, an hour’s rain between Midnight of the Wednesday night for an hour. Otherwise DRY all day.
    Friday: Now looks better, 40% chance between 4-7am, 50% chance between 1-4pm, 40% chance between 7-10pm. THIS DAY’S FORECAST LOOKS VITAL as it keeps changing and after a couple of largely dry days on Wednesday/Thursday, whether rain hits on the Friday or moves away, may affect FINAL GOING.
    Saturday:40% chance between 4-7pm
    So from a couple of days ago when they said a deluge would strike, looked like we may get Heavy.
    Likely now Soft ground.
    But still time to change again, as fronts appear very volatile.

  25. Corbiere says:

    Weather Watch:
    Rain has started again
    Turftrax Official going: Soft (Good to Soft in places)
    After it stops (if it does) at lunchtime today, they are currently giving 8mm for the rest of the week. Obviously only a guide.

  26. Corbiere says:

    Apart from a couple of online Bookies Sporting Bet slashing willy nilly across the board and some favs drifting on Bet Stars, relatively quiet so far today on Oddschecker.

  27. Corbiere says:

    Corbs Final run through will have to be today (will be hard to be decisive with weather so volatile, so expect some sitting on a fence) . Will be more my Final Thoughts , given the months of reading all our posts and reading a mine of information, stats, opinions etc.

  28. JJ says:

    Mike N,
    Peter Marsh Chase was over 2m7f when Earth Summit won it.

  29. Seven Towers says:

    The last two winners have had the Derby winner Relko in their dam’s pedigree and I can only find three such horses in this year’s field. May not be important but most of us like to see a coincidence, or trend if you will! This would, I suggest, definitely fall under the banner of coincidence!

    Anyway, the 3 runners with Relko on the broodmare side this year are

    Tiger Roll
    Ucello Conti
    Pendra

    I will wait to see how they do!

  30. majorattraction says:

    Have been into William Hills this morning, they had Presenting Percy @ 20/1 for the G.N. even came over the tanoy system, as they are the only high street shop that are NOT NRNB, would any poor punter being foolish enough to back the horse get their money back??? They should wear masks behind those counters!

  31. Corbiere says:

    Major I Saw that yesterday and was telling the 4 punters in the shop. Disgraceful, especially as never been entered after weights day, and NRNB .Really shocking !

  32. Corbiere says:

    Especially as the once a year “choose it by the name” punters may have a Percy in the family.

  33. majorattraction says:

    Exactly Corbs, I pointed it out to the chap behind the counter, but we seemed to be talking different languages! Looking forward to your next Laundry oops! Weather report, great reading Corbs.

  34. Corbiere says:

    Weather Watch:
    Still “chucking it down” , very heavy rain.

  35. Mike N says:

    Cheers JJ. Interesting that on YouTube it shows those older Peter Marsh races as 3 miles.

  36. kj says:

    Disgraceful behaviour! record it and report them?

    I said Conti was on my mind yesterday and think I usually write Ucello for short… maybe sadly it was the other one that came to me, RIP Silviniaco. Not sure what to make of this ‘sign’ now.

    Rain watch is the worst isn’t it… rain like this coming back off the continent is unpredictable Corbiere.
    As we’ve seen predictions been changing twice a day from every source, even this close, but theres always rain or indeed cloud about.
    Last night when I looked, it looked like all the rain in Spain, the Mediterranean, the Alps, North Africa, Italy and beyond! was going to be sucked up through my house in Montpellier!.. and spun off toward you! haha gods on my/raz side!.. last night.
    …This morning it looks like down here we are getting a greater quantity of rain for longer predicted still tmw and thursday but NOT now spectacularly all coming together and powering its way through my house! on account of this ‘weather’ mass changing its mind and sitting in Spain, that happens, that affects this front weakening and the atlantic (prevailing wind) will keep the proper rain in the north sea and instead a weather gap might arrive ahead of the westerly strong winds sunday (as thought before). The last front coming back off the north sea looking unlikely, which was the possiblity since the weekend. So predicting sunny gaps and stick my neck out and say ‘possibly’ a big sunny gap! by fri/sat (again) course that could be overnight ;) All along the crucial friday/saturday has been the great unknown. Still looks like a last day betting yr or tmw Corbs?. everyday counts in this percentages game.

  37. Kevski111 says:

    miinnehoma says:
    April 9, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    The GN Form tool is a cracker but has a few mistakes.
    Have looked at the final 40 with these 3 stats -

    1- Last Race finished in top 9.- 23/24 (DPI).
    2- Season Runs at least 4 or 2+ with a win. – 24/24
    3- Days Since Last Run 60 or less. – 24/24

    I would be careful reading stats in full, the 1st one, what about horses that didn’t finish in the first 9 in last race, I feel you must include horses that have pulled up or fell etc..happened before, and your 3rd point sort of agree but with new facilities trainers have now maybe it’s not a great issue but of course a horse needs to be fully fit.

  38. rough and tumble says:

    Well my long term, unwavering nap, BAIE DES ILES wants it soft, so keep the rain coming for me. If you do fancy her to win I’d suggest getting on quick, there’s not much 33s left, and she’s down at 30 now on Betfair.

  39. rough and tumble says:

    …..make that 28, someone just took the £150 at 30. Mind you, she’ll probably ease once the weather brightens up!!

  40. pablo says:

    From BHA re weather – no going update yet

    Weather
    6mm Wednesday. 13mm Saturday. 2mm overnight Tuesday – band of rain clearing late morning 3mm. Thereafter mainly dry, brighter spells, breezy 12C Wednesday – cloudy, breezy with drizzle overnight 13C Thursday – dry with sunny spells. Poss shower overnight 12C Friday – cloudy, poss showers through afternoon 12C Saturday – cloudy am, showers pm 12C
    Updated @ 7:50am, Tue 10 Apr

    ——–

    And two hours later…

    Corbiere says:
    April 10, 2018 at 9:49 am
    Weather Watch:
    Still “chucking it down” , very heavy rain.

  41. Kevski111 says:

    Looking at the met office forecast not much rain if any at all from tomorrow, would expect the ground to be good/good to soft.

  42. Kevski111 says:

    ^^^^^
    Meant to say only about 10% chance of rain on those days.

  43. moari says:

    Would any one out there care to hazard a guess how much Billy hills might make by not going nrnb.Sure there will be plenty of once a year punters who would bet a horse that has no hope of running in the last week before the race

  44. Systemsman says:

    miinnehoma

    Are you sure none of the previous 24 GN winners have not come 1/2/3 in the Munster national?

  45. Dublin Rover says:

    Hi everyone,

    As ever, I’m popping up like a fairweather National observer to pick the brains of those more fluent in the language of racing than I. Thanks to all of you for your insights, they’re so valuable to the likes of me.

    I have one question this year that I think is the most important, although I’ll let you be the judge of that!

    Given the chance of deep ground on Saturday, which horses would be in the Top 5 or so of those likely to improve the most the heavier it gets? I don’t necessarily mean that they might improve enough to win it, all other things being equal, but are there any outsiders out there that would plug on in bottomless ground and out-perform their raw talent at their own pace?

    I remember backing Just So at 66/1 as a young lad for this reason and he shortened right up in the lead up to the race and plugged on for 2nd. It would be good to find another mudlark in this year’s field (perhaps Raz de Maree?)

    Thanks all, and keep up the good work!

  46. sling-shot03 says:

    I have never known rain like it down south farmers can’t even get there seed into the field.British Gas has already announced huge hikes and the way this weather is going food prices will go up massively this year.It’s almost like someone is playing with HAARP lol. I have amazing drainage in my garden and Sandy soil that drains really well but it’s like a paddy field if you have had as much rain as us and it rains day the before or on the day even if it’s dry this week it’s going to be soft.

  47. sling-shot03 says:

    This site is very good for tracking the weather and predicting it as well. https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

  48. sling-shot03 says:

    The day

  49. rough and tumble says:

    You’d think we were experiencing a monsoon here up North, BAIE DES ILES now shorter than Minella Rocco on Betfair, 26 versus 27! Reading the weather forecasts I still think it’ll be good to soft on the day.

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