Grand National 2016: The Final Furlong

Only days to go now before the 2016 Grand National and the betting is really starting to heat up with last year’s winner Many Clouds being challenged for favouritism by former King George winner Silviniaco Conti and new kid on the block The Last Samuri.

Who do you think will win the 2016 Grand National?

Please add your tips, systems, trends and questions to this page.

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848 Responses to Grand National 2016: The Final Furlong

  1. Seven Towers says:

    On the General Tips 2016 page rich. I like Al Co too but not certain to get a run as things stand.

  2. PenguinKeeper says:

    Rule the World would not be allowed to run off 153 though if weights were allocated today ST. Aintree factor and all.If it ran off 153 and the ground was good to soft ish it would be a very short price imo.

    Pablo, i agree The Young Master looks a likely sort especially given connections/owners. For me though 8 years of age is still too young for most horses and it would be massively on my radar for 2018. That is even taking into account Many Clouds(the exception) and The Last Samuri(off his correct mark where would he have finished?).I think Mulholland has a better one than that for next year, as long as its campaigned cleverly.

    Only horse i have bet so far is Henri Parry Morgan.100/1 for a horse who has a bit of class,seems to stay well,already has decent handicap form with double figures runners ,and knowing connections,will be aimed at the race is good enough for me.

  3. pablo says:

    PK – Carole’s Destrier? Going for Bet365 I think – interested to see how he goes from that lofty mark. Appears to be a much better horse going right-handed (won at Wetherby beating only two horses now both rated 122).

  4. pablo says:

    General observations about the GN:

    - If the quality in terms of ratings is as high next year as this then an unexposed 8yo on a decent mark has every chance. MC was rated 165 (ran off 160) and TLS rated 161 (ran off 149). [Of course it may simply be that they are distantly related to one another through PALM TREE (GB) ch. 1917. The Tullow Tank is too being from the same dam as MC.]

    - Rule The World joined two GN winners I can think of who achieved something big as an ‘older’ Novice – Miinnehoma won the RSA aged 9 and Numbersixvalverde the Irish National as a Novice aged 9. Pineau De Re also began chasing aged 9. Perhaps they all benefitted to some degree from being ‘mature students’?

    - Some of the so-called ‘better’ older horses aren’t handicappers and aren’t campaigned like handicappers – they run in small field races all season

    - Some (many?) horses rated 145+ may still be paying for having been shafted by Phil Smith previously

    - In the RP after weights day Smith said that he was handicapping some ‘inconsistent’ (as he referred to them) Irish horses to reflect their best winning performances (Rule The World was fortunate in one sense that he hadn’t won a chase – Lord knows what mark he’d have been running from if he had!)

    - Coming second in another National from a 140+ rating appears to be better than winning one (likely to be shafted by Smith for your troubles). Winning one from a lower mark is generally ok.

  5. Mike N says:

    I see Perfect Candidate won today. Might be enough to get into the GN next year. ;)

  6. admin says:

    Interesting discussion of trends and the impact of the fence changes 4 years ago here
    http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=59603&postdays=0&postorder=asc&ep=&start=0

  7. miinnehoma says:

    Mouse said on weights day -

    “Rule The World could go – I wouldn’t say no, anyway. He could be a great ride round there. There’s also the Irish National for him, so I’ll discuss it with the owners.

    “I’d love to run Rogue Angel if he got in – I’d nearly ride him myself!

  8. miinnehoma says:

    greasepaint says:
    March 27, 2016 at 9:56 pm
    Other than this, it’s hard to argue against Mc and Saint Are again,
    and Just a Par and Rule the World have proven spring form at 29f+ at huge prices.

    888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

    Lucky Vane says:March 30, 2016 at 8:02 pm
    I believe what I said on the votes thread says it all.

    ” RULE THE WORLD yet to win, but ran some good races in defeat.
    Worth a punt at 50/1 especially if you can find a bookmaker paying extra places.”

    Betvictor now goes 6 places and offering 50/1. So going to add an EW bet to my list.
    888888888888888888888888888888888888888

    rough and tumble says: March 30, 2016 at 9:45 pm
    I’m going to throw in Le Reve (90 on betfair) and Rule the world (60). Or do these prices suggest non runners?

  9. miinnehoma says:

    for the record -
    best RPR > GNOR in last 8 chases or 2 seasons.

    01; —6221 Many Clouds;27 9 11-10———-5
    02; —22P1 Silviniaco Conti;49 10 11-8——14
    03; —432P First Lieutenant;63 11 11-4——-2
    04; ——2 Wonderful Charm;120 8 11-3——-7
    05; –35PP7 Ballynagour;23 10 11-2———-10
    06; –P1P87 O´Faolains Boy;22 9 11-1——-7
    07; —3455 Gilgamboa;23 8 11-1————–10
    10; -7U4828 On His Own;22 12 11-1——–12
    11; —-662 The Druids Nephew;35 9 11-0—-3
    12; —–15 Triolo D´Alene;49 9 11-0———–5
    13; —2P40 Rocky Creek;42 10 10-13——–11
    14; —-157 Sir Des Champs;63 10 10-13—–4
    16; —54P2 Holywell;25 9 10-12—————17
    17; —–3P Shutthefrontdoor;35 9 10-11——5
    18; —0413 Soll;51 11 10-11———————0
    19; —3243 Buywise;70 9 10-10—————-8
    20; —–P1 Boston Bob;49 11 10-10———-12
    22; -411209 Aachen;35 12 10-10————–2
    23; —-224 Morning Assembly;25 9 10-9—–6
    24; –24599 Double Ross;25 10 10-9———-9
    25; —3942 Goonyella;34 9 10-8—————-3
    26; —-623 Ucello Conti;79 8 10-8————–0
    27; –80312 Unioniste;27 8 10-8—————12
    28; -P02615 Le Reve;42 8 10-8—————-5
    29; —-U75 Gallant Oscar;34 10 10-8———7
    30; —1225 Onenightinvienna;49 7 10-8—–8
    31; —-311 The Last Samuri;35 8 10-8——-11
    32; —–15 Kruzhlinin;25 9 10-7—————–5
    33; –32254 Rule The World;34 9 10-7——-5
    34; —-092 Just A Par;18 9 10-6—————3
    35; —–P0 Katenko;25 10 10-6—————–0
    36; —85P6 Vics Canvas;49 13 10-6———-4
    38; —-0U6 Black Thunder;63 9 10-6———10
    39; —-935 Ballycasey;23 9 10-6—————7
    40; ——7 Hadrian´s Approach;42 9 10-6—-0
    43; —1U26 Vieux Lion Rouge;25 7 10-5—-4
    44; —–15 Pendra;112 8 10-5——————-3
    45; —-671 Saint Are;45 10 10-5—————9
    46; —–46 Home Farm;41 9 10-4————–8
    47; –77F38 The Romford Pele;24 9 10-4—-9

  10. Seven Towers says:

    I think the most difficult thing to predict will be how many outings each potential entrant is going to have next season and will we see a return to the primarily hurdle preparation for many of those being targeted that have a 145+ OR. I like Sandy Thomson because he’s not afraid to campaign his horses quite vigorously, so you would feel that if he targets the GN then Seeyouatmidnight will have had more than enough outings prior to the big one. Others that you can be pretty sure will have a fair few outings next season would be Henri Parry Morgan, Blaklion and Rogue Angel, the latter I can see having some runs over hurdles now and I can see The Young Master going over the smaller obstacles at the start of next season to retain his current mark. One horse that will surely come out and win sooner rather than later will be Noble Endeavour who I think would have played some sort of hand in the finish of the NH Chase but for coming down when mounting his challenge. He needs that win (or at least a decent placed effort) to book his place in the line up next year.

  11. miinnehoma says:

    1992 PARTY POLITICS 8 10-07;—2nd Welsh Nat.
    1994 MIINNEHOMA 11 10-08;——3rd Welsh Nat.
    1995 ROYAL ATHLETE 12 10-06;—1st Servo 28f.
    1996 ROUGH QUEST 10 10-07;—–2nd Hennessy.
    1997 LORD GYLLENE 9 10-00;—–2nd Midlands Nat.
    1998 Earth Summit 10 10-05;—-1st Welsh Nat.
    1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-00;———-1st Irish Nat.
    2000 Papillon 9 10-12;———2nd Irish Nat.
    2002 Bindaree 8 10-04;———3rd Welsh Nat.
    2003 Monty’s Pass 10 10-07;—-1st Kerry Nat 24f.
    2004 Amberleigh Hou 12 10-10;–3rd Grand Nat.
    2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-01;——3rd Welsh Nat.
    2006 Numbersixvalver 10 10-08;-1st Irish Nat.
    2007 Silver Birch 10 10-06;—-1st Welsh Nat.
    2008 Comply or Die 9 10-09;—-1st Eider 33f.
    2009 Mon Mome 9 11-00;———2nd Welsh Nat.
    2010 Don’t Push It 10 11-05;—2nd Servo 28f.
    2011 Ballabriggs 10 11-00;—–1st Kim Muir 26f.
    2012 Neptune Collong 11 11-06;-2nd Haydock GNT 28f.
    2013 Auroras Encore 11 10-03;–2nd Scottish Nat.
    2014 Pineau De Re 11 10-06;—-1st Ulster Nat.
    2015 Many Clouds 8 11-09;——1st Hennessy.
    *****************************************************
    THE LAST SAMURI; 8; 10-08; 1st Grimthorpe 26f.
    Now Grand National 3rd Fav @ 12/1.
    Probably a Ballabriggs type but without any Cheltenham or Aintree festival form.
    ***************************************
    Best Match -
    MANY CLOUDS;——–1st Grand Nat.
    Sam Winner;———1st Servo 28f.
    THE DRUIDS NEPHEW;–2nd Servo 28f.
    TRIOLO D’ALENE;—–1st Hennessy.
    ROCKY CREEK;——–2nd Hennessy.
    SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR;—1st Irish Nat.
    GOONYELLA;———-2nd Scottish Nat.
    RULE THE WORLD;—–2nd Irish Nat.
    SPRING HEELED;——1st Kim Muir 26f.
    SAINT ARE;———-2nd Grand Nat.
    BISHOPS ROAD;——-1st Haydock GNT 28f.
    SHOTGUN PADDY;——3rd Welsh Nat.
    PINEAU DE RE;——-1st Grand Nat.
    DOUBLE SEVEN;——-3rd Grand Nat.
    MOUNTAINOUS;——–1st Welsh Nat.
    *******************************************
    Next -
    LE REVE;————-3rd Sandown Gold cup.
    HADRIAN’S APPROACH;–1st Sandown Gold cup.
    JUST A PAR ;———1st Sandown Gold cup.
    VICS CANVAS;———2nd Sandown Gold cup.
    HOME FARM;———–3rd Irish Nat.
    BENBENS;————-3rd Scottish Nat.
    CAUSE OF CAUSES;—–1st Cheltenham 4m.
    MIDNIGHT PRAYER;—–1st Cheltenham 4m.
    *****************************************************
    SILVINIACO CONTI;-4th Gold cup.
    ON HIS OWN;——2nd Gold cup.
    SIR DES CHAMPS; –2nd Gold cup.
    HOLYWELL;——–4th Gold cup.
    LONG RUN;——–1st Gold cup.
    ****************************************
    FIRST LIEUTENANT;–3rd Hennessy.
    HIGHLAND LODGE;—4th Hennessy.

  12. miinnehoma says:

    for the record -
    Have updated with Rule The World.
    ***********************
    Just expanding crisp’s 27th Oct. post on chase RPR > OR = 9 or more before GN win.
    That’s chase OR & RPR given at the time. (not best RPR > GNOR).

    RTW.- 8 chases ago, 153 – 141 = 12.
    MC. – 4 chases ago, 158 – 144 = 14.
    PDR – 1 chase ago, 151 – 133 = 18.
    AE. – 9 chases ago, 148 – 134 = 14.
    NC. – 1 chase ago, 171 – 159 = 12.
    BB. – 2 chases ago, 154 – 140 = 14.
    DPI – 4 chases ago, 156 – 143 = 13.
    MM. – 4 chases ago, 155 – 140 = 15.
    COD – 1 chase ago, 155 – 139 = 16.
    SB. – 1 chase ago, 150 – 138 = 12.
    NO6 – 1 chase ago, 146 – 135 = 11.
    HH. – 3 chases ago, 156 – 129 = 27.
    AH. – 2 chases ago, 154 – 133 = 21.
    MP. – 2 chases ago, 148 – 130 = 18.
    BIN – 4 chases ago, 144 – 135 = 9.
    RM. – 9 chases ago, 145 – 135 = 10. (10 chases ago, 30)
    PAP – 8 chases ago, 150 – 140 = 10.
    BJ. – 6 chases ago, 153 – 122 = 31.
    ES. – 3 chases ago, 157 – 143 = 14.
    ****************************************

  13. miinnehoma says:

    Rule The World -
    He also matched the Top 2 place Spring Festival or Top 3 @ 28f+ (matched both).

    Updated Spring Festival Runs -

    Rule The World – Cheltenham 2, Punchestown 2, Fairyhouse 1.
    Many Clouds – Cheltenham 3, Aintree 3.
    Pineau De Re – Cheltenham 3, Fairyhouse 1.
    Auroras Encore – Cheltenham 1, Aintree 3, Ayr 3.
    Neptune Collonges – Cheltenham 4, Aintree 1, Ayr 1, Punchestown 2.
    Ballabriggs – Cheltenham 1, Ayr 1.
    Don’t Push It – Cheltenham 4, Aintree 3.
    Mon Mome – Cheltenham 3, Aintree 2, Ayr 2.
    Comply Or Die – Cheltenham 2, Ayr 1, Sandown 1.
    Silver Birch – Cheltenham 2, Aintree 1, Ayr 1.
    Numbersixvalverde – Fairyhouse 2, Punchestown 3
    Hedgehunter – Cheltenham 1, Aintree 1, Punchestown 1.
    Amberleigh House – Cheltenham 3, Aintree 3, Fairyhouse 1, Punchestown 4.
    Monty’s Pass – Cheltenham 1, Aintree 1, Punchestown 1.
    Bindaree – Cheltenham 2, Aintree 2, Ayr 1.
    Red Marauder – Aintree 1, Fairyhouse 1.
    Papillon – Cheltenham 2, Fairyhouse 3, Punchestown 1.
    Bobbyjo – Fairyhouse 1, Punchestown 1.
    Earth Summit – Cheltenham 1, Ayr 1.
    LORD GYLLENE – ————NONE———————-

  14. Seven Towers says:

    Seven Towers says:
    March 20, 2016 at 4:21 pm
    I think the winner is a progressive horse. Expect to see him entered for Liverpool next year now. Will need another decent run between now and then however to get in. He was running on like a train last time out.

    ——————————————–

    This is what I wrote about FEDERICI having backed him in the Ulster National. He’s gone in again today and done it very well once again. I like him and Bolger knows how to get them ready for the big day as he showed this year and I’m certain Spot Thediference would have played a role in the finish all them years ago but for coming down.

  15. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    If anybodies there,
    SEVEN TOWERS he is a progressive horse but here will have to go up a couple of performances to get his rating up and get an entry to the race,but with OVERBURY and ARDROSS on his dam and sire side lasting the distance should be no problem,also have u gone in ante -post on him and what price did u get……..

  16. kj says:

    Ahhh Spot :) no horse knew those cheltenham xcountry jumps like he did! It still baffles me why horses don’t seem to learn to just disregard the last jump like he did. Federici looks a good prospect.
    Just found my newspaper clipping of Bindaree winning GN folded up in my coat pocket, it was hidden for yrs under my clipping of COD in the kitchen, pocketed it after ripping up the Cod one on my way out. It looks like a relic from the 1850s! both the effect of hanging in the kitchen since 2002 and the size of bechers :D

    If it wasn’t already The Young Master is confirmed as targeting the GN next yr after winning the Sandown GC today.

  17. ewok says:

    2017 vote

    6 – Minella Rocco
    5 – The Druids Nephew
    4 – Seeyouatmidnight
    3 – Rogue Angel
    2 – Measureofmydreams
    1 – O’Faolain’s Boy

    Hehe (just for a laugh) ;)

  18. Pollyowls says:

    Following on from Ewok’s fine example…

    6 – The Young Master
    5 – Seeyouatmidnight
    4 – Onenightinvienna
    3 – Cause Of Causes
    2 – Knockanrawley
    1 – Monksland

  19. Seven Towers says:

    Federici not appearing in any lists at the moment, so no, I’m not on right now.

    I’m not entirely convinced Seeyouatmidnight will be aimed at the GN. Could see it happening the year after. Hope I’m wrong about the GN but I could definitely see Hennessy and possibly Welsh National next year. Think he could be nailed on for the latter.

    Following examples from the two before and taking into account Brocade have never had a runner (otherwise Native River would have to be in there) my very long range six are,

    6. Noble Endeavour
    5. The Tullow Tank
    4. The Last Samuri
    3. Alvarado
    2. Many Clouds
    1. Federici

  20. miinnehoma says:

    Updated LV’s List -

    Grand National DP & CMP figures 1991 to 2016

    2016 winner Rule The World
    CMP = 5-5-4-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 14-18-19
    DP = 4-2-3-7-4 (20) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.25

    2015 winner Many Clouds
    CMP = 4-5-5-5-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.60 Triads = 14-15-20
    DP = 2-1-15-4-0 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = 0.05

    2014 winner Pineau De Re
    CMP = 5-1-5-10-3 Speed = 6 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.76 Triads = 11-16-18
    DP = 0-0-1-1-0 (2) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.50

    2013 winner Auroras Encore
    CMP = 4-5-5-10-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.67 Triads = 14-20-21
    DP = 5-0-10-5-4 (24) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.13

    2012 winner Neptune Collonges
    CMP = 2-0-7-6-6 Speed = 2 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.44 Triads = 9-13-19
    DP = 0-0-0-2-0 (2) DI = 0.00 CD = -1.00

    2011 winner Ballabriggs
    CMP = 2-3-9-9-4 Speed = 5 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.62 Triads = 14-21-22
    DP = 1-1-2-4-2 (10) DI = 0.43 CD = -0.50

    2010 winner Don’t Push It
    CMP = 3-6-2-7-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.52 Triads = 11-15-18
    DP = 6-5-12-4-1 (28) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.39

    2009 winner Mon Mome
    CMP = 3-6-5-12-3 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.74 Triads = 14-23-20
    DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

    2008 winner Comply Or Die
    CMP = 5-5-5-8-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-18-17
    DP = 2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI = 0.71 CD = 0.00

    2007 winner Silver Birch
    CMP = 3-1-7-5-10 Speed = 4 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.44 Triads = 11-13-22
    DP = 2-0-4-8-6 (20) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.80

    2006 winner Numbersixvalverde
    CMP = 5-3-5-5-10 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.60 Triads = 13-13-20
    DP = 2-0-0-6-2 (10) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.60

    2005 winner Hedgehunter
    CMP = 5-6-1-9-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 12-16-16
    DP = 8-3-8-2-7 (28) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.11

    2004 winner Amberleigh House
    CMP = 6-1-7-4-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.74 Triads = 14-12-19
    DP = 5-1-8-2-4 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.05

    2003 winner Monty’s Pass
    CMP = 5-2-2-8-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.54 Triads = 9-12-18
    DP = 3-4-6-0-7 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.20

    2002 winner Bindaree
    CMP = 4-3-9-4-10 Speed = 7 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.61 Triads = 16-16-23
    DP = 1-1-3-4-1 (10) DI = 0.54 CD = -0.30

    2001 winner Red Marauder
    CMP = 4-2-4-8-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.54 Triads = 10-14-19
    DP = 5-0-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00 CD = 1.67

    2000 winner Papillon
    CMP = 0-6-3-8-8 Speed = 6 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.33 Triads = 9-17-19
    DP = 0-1-4-1-6 (12) DI = 0.33 CD = -1.00

    1999 winner Bobbyjo
    CMP = 7-2-3-4-11 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.66 Triads = 12-9-18
    DP = 5-1-4-6-4 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.15

    1998 winner Earth Summit
    CMP = 4-2-6-4-12 Speed = 6 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.47 Triads = 12-12-22
    DP = 3-0-11-2-0 (16) DI = 1.13 CD = 0.25

    1997 winner Lord Gyllene
    CMP = 3-2-5-5-10 Speed = 5 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.43 Triads = 10-12-20
    DP = 2-0-2-4-6 (14) DI = 0.27 CD = -0.86

    1996 winner Rough Quest
    CMP = Speed = 5 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.43 Triads = 12-18-22
    DP = 0-0-6-8-6 (20) DI = 0.18 CD = -1.00

    1995 winner Royal Athlete
    CMP = 4-3-9-6-7 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.69 Triads = 16-18-22
    DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf CD = Inf

    1994 winner Miinnehoma
    CMP = 4-3-6-5-10 Speed = 7 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.55 Triads = 13-14-21
    DP = 3-2-7-8-0 (20) DI = 0.74 CD = 0.00

    1993 winner [void]

    1992 winner Party Politics
    CMP = 1-3-5-7-8 Speed = 4 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.36 Triads = 9-15-20
    DP = 3-2-1-12-0 (18) DI = 0.44 CD = -0.22

    1991 winner Seagram
    CMP = 0-3-5-8-7 Speed = 3 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.30 Triads = 8-16-20
    DP = 2-0-2-12-10 (26) DI = 0.13 CD = -1.08

  21. kj says:

    Sad to hear of the sudden death of Comply or Die :(
    the racing post tribute photo is the same one I had up from the newspaper in my kitchen all those yrs …until I tore it up leaving the country…. immediately regretted it (even more now) …kept my Bindaree one underneath folded in my pocket. What a cool GN winner Comply was. An intelligent horse. RIP

  22. Pollyowls says:

    Evening KJ… hope all is well with you
    Wanted to log on to pay my respects to Comply Or Die… so sad he’s left us so soon. Deprived Hedgehunter of becoming a dual winner…then had the same done to him by Mon Mome the next year.
    Also wanted to mention how pleased I am that Gigginstown have officially retired Rule The World… he got his day in the sun and I’m delighted they didn’t go back to the well with him – after two pelvic injuries, he deserves a long and happy retirement..

  23. kj says:

    Evening to you Pollyowls, soldiering on with this enforced expensive temporary home situation ;) … constant downpours and inlaws here… so it really is bad at the moment lol, oh well something more settled soon I hope and praying for a cool summer. Totally shocked and gutted about Comply, he looked absolutely great in the GN parade! and has had some kind of mystery death in the field…..certainly gone too soon. As you said proper national hero like Hedgehunter returning as runners up and galantly turning up again with a decent effort, old skool! Also glad they retired Rule the World considering his story.

  24. Lucky Vane says:

    Ready to start the search for the 2017 winner.

    First a few pointers from Rule The World National.

    We all seemed interested in winning form. While winning form is important, the may be horses who have come close to winning without getting their noses in front when it matters.

    CAUSE OF CAUSES being one example [other than RTW] before last year’s win at Cheltenham.

    I’m not saying next year’s winner will be a carbon copy of RTW but we’ve got to recognize good performances.

    Watching RTW in 2016 National, he was always handy. More so than previous winners who get mentioned around the start of the second circuit. This demonstrates to me the ability of handling megafields in chasing [ a term I use to represent fields of 16 or greater runners] while Silviniaco Conti a horse recognize with smaller fields ,usually single digits, got pulled up at the 14th.

    Another useful feature is a career best RPR in chasing. I would like this to be in the last 2 runnings, but except that because conditions may not be favourable nearer the big day, then anytime in the current season.

    Yet another useful piece of stat was Miinnehoma’s placed at 28 furlongs, which I studied and altered slightly to 27 fulongs. A lot failed this stat, but it still kept the winner.

  25. galileo says:

    If the admin is around,could we please have a new GRAND NATIONAL 2017 thread…….

  26. kj says:

    I second that Galileo!
    some early news….
    Sherwood said on Wednesday re Many Clouds:
    “He came back from Mr Hemmings’ on Friday and has just started being ridden this week. We haven’t got a set plan.
    “We’ll get him half-fit and see if we’re going to have a little op done on his wind. It’s too early say, but my gut feeling is he’ll have a little one; we’ll know more in six weeks.”
    Many Clouds, who has the 3m1f Listed chase at Aintree in December as a possible target, is 33-1 to win the Grand National for a second time next spring.

  27. kj says:

    Is it a dream?… beautiful and in full in technicolor
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RXkkARRlfk

  28. billymag says:

    Come on Admin new thread please

  29. billymag says:

    STILL WAITING ADMIN!!!!!

  30. billymag says:

    Right guys im out, wish you luck the Administration of this forum is practically non-existent. For a forum to be called Grand National Blog and not have a thread for the next years race is …….

  31. galileo says:

    Helllooo,if any of the admins are out there,pleeeaase could we have a new GN2017 thread….PLEASE….

  32. galileo says:

    C’mon ADMIN……..ERS………….were r u,C’mon……..

  33. galileo says:

    Hi gang, if admin are not around and we can’t have a new GN2017,then it’s up to us bloggers to carry on using this thread for r tips for GN2017,at the moment I’m on the YOUNG MASTER,only a couple of twenties but may go in again,the horse is being laid out for the race and hopefully with SWC on board we should get a good run for are money……….CMON BLOGGERS…..

  34. Lucky Vane says:

    I still like Many Clouds & Saint Are, both ran well in the 2016 version where things weren’t ideal to say the least.
    YM could be one to keep an eye on, it’s early days yet so seeing how things develop before committing.

    As for betting putting a little aside on my Bet Victor account and waiting until after the Cheltenham Festival until I place my bets, yes I might loose some good prices, but I will have possibly the clearest picture.

    Only backing whatever in my final list in the voting table and whatever at the top of the final vote’s table, excluding horses in my list, when we do it.

  35. Lucky Vane says:

    Admin ( Darren) could a new Grand National 2017 early stages (or something similarly title) go up around Charlie Hall race at Wetherby which is run around late October to early November. Preferably before said race :)

  36. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    At the moment LV were just a voice in the wind………

  37. Lucky Vane says:

    Hi gang, just thought I’d analysis the Grand National of 2016 on why we had three trend busters in the first three placings and why Vic Campus who was the first 13 year old to make the frame since 1969 got officially placed and nearly won.

    I think that the race was slow, and looking back at the time each race was won at over the past decade, only Mon Mome race was slower.

    Mon Mome won in 9 minutes 32.9
    Rule The World won in 9 minutes 29

    “As verified by Racing Post”

    Rule The World race was roughly one and a half furlong shorter so the standard time is 9 minutes 4 seconds, compared to Mon Mome standard time of 9 minutes 10 seconds for the full distance. This means Rule The World was 25 seconds slow and Mon Mome was 22.9 seconds slow. The going was Soft for Rule The World and Good to Soft for Mon Mome. It was the slowness of the race which I think give Vic Campus his chance, and also Rule The World who was prominent throughout the race.

  38. miinnehoma says:

    I do love me stats but the last 6 winners have taught us a few lessons.
    Many Clouds year I could have done a Billymag plus and backed 38 horses and still have missed the winner.
    Trainer said he wouldn’t run in both races, only 8 with almost top weight and needs soft.
    Rule The World’s second in the Irish National ment he had to be backed early on ( one of many that had to be backed). I think Auroras Encore taught us that lesson.
    It was only when mouse won the Irish National with Rogue Angel and then fat Al jokingly tipped RTW on the Sunday forum to a laughing Matt that I really took notice.
    ************

    Mouse said on weights day –
    “I’d love to run Rogue Angel if he got in – I’d nearly ride him myself!”

  39. billymag says:

    lol Miinnehoma, broke even last year but think i only backed about 60 horses, so streamlining my approach a bit in my older years

  40. miinnehoma says:

    I just noticed that young Hughes has lost Thunder and Roses to Mouse. That gives him 3 crackers to try for a repeat win next April – Rogue Angel, Folsom Blue & Thunder and Roses.
    All 3 are down for the Munster National this Sunday.
    It’a a long time since a trainer won 2 GN’s on the trot – Ginger ’73 & ’74, Fred Winter ’65 & ’66 and the man himself Vincent O’Brien won 3 on the trot in ’53, ’54 & ’55.
    So it can be done and is well overdue.

  41. miinnehoma says:

    ROGUE ANGEL (Presenting)
    CMP = 4-3-7-9-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-19-21
    DP = 0-1-1-4-2 (8) DI = 0.23 CD = -0.88

    THUNDER AND ROSES (Presenting)
    CMP = 4-3-6-9-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.68 Triads = 13-18-20
    DP = 0-1-1-4-2 (8) DI = 0.23 CD = -0.88

    FOLSOM BLUE (Old Vic)
    Don’t have his CMP yet.
    DP = 4-0-6-6-0 (16) DI = 0.78 CD = 0.13
    **************************************

    Last 4 GN winners over the new fences -

    2016 winner RULE THE WORLD
    CMP = 5-5-4-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 14-18-19
    DP = 4-2-3-7-4 (20) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.25

    2015 winner Many Clouds
    CMP = 4-5-5-5-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.60 Triads = 14-15-20
    DP = 2-1-15-4-0 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = 0.05

    2014 winner Pineau De Re
    CMP = 5-1-5-10-3 Speed = 6 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.76 Triads = 11-16-18
    DP = 0-0-1-1-0 (2) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.50

    2013 winner Auroras Encore
    CMP = 4-5-5-10-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.67 Triads = 14-20-21
    DP = 5-0-10-5-4 (24) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.13

  42. kj says:

    Presenting can certainly give a carthorse element to some of his offspring can’t he. Thunder and Roses you feel would have been a big contender in this yrs race, but it wasn’t his yr, wish that I’d remembered RTW was a stand out horse for the future for me, before he broke his back… again! but would I have backed him? I mean 2 broken backs!?! wow!
    Thunder beat RTW in the IN ofcourse, but that seems to have taken it out of him since, they tried blinkers last time, so he needs to turn a corner.
    Just watched his IN again, would be nice to see Katie ride again. Funny to see Rogue Angel running loose pulling himself to the front, going onto win from the front! the next yr.
    It is interesting to see Thunder move to Mouse, will be hoping for soft in the ground if he enjoys the move. I always hope for a bit of soft in there myself as its easier to get the first few home and hopefully the winner.

  43. miinnehoma says:

    Posts are as scarce as hen’s teeth. Admin must reckon we don’t deserve a new page.

    Any news on the 25/1 fav Don Poli, will he run in the National or what.
    Any news on Blaklion or O Faolains Boy.

  44. miinnehoma says:

    Rule The World —– 13 chases / 5 hcaps = 38%
    Many Clouds ——– 10 chases / 1 hcap = 10%
    Pineau De Re ——- 14 chases / 9 hcaps = 64%
    Auroras Encore —– 23 chases / 16 hcaps = 70%
    Neptune Collonges- 27 chases / 9 hcaps = 33%
    Ballabriggs ———- 12 chases / 7 hcaps = 58%
    Don’t Push It ——– 12 chases / 5 hcaps = 42%
    Mon Mome ———- 24 chases / 21 hcaps = 88%
    Comply Or Die —– 14 chases / 8 hcaps = 57%
    Silver Birch ———- 13 chases / 8 hcaps = 62%
    No.6 Valverde —— 10 chases / 6 hcaps = 60%
    Hedgehunter ——– 11 chases / 6 hcaps = 55%
    Amberleigh House – 37 chases / 24 hcaps = 65%
    Monty’s Pass ——– 41 chases / 31 hcaps = 76%
    Bindaree ————– 15 chases / 7 hcaps = 47%

  45. miinnehoma says:

    1 year before stats.

    – 20/20 6+ chase runs
    – 20/20 12+ chase/hurdle runs
    – 16/20 3+ chase wins (Hedgehunter2/PDR2/MC2/RTW0)
    – 19/20 5 chase wins or 20% chase win strike rate (RTW)
    – 19/20 4 or more chase/hurdle wins (Hedgehunter3)
    – 18/20 won 1 of last 7 chases (Mon Mome/RTW)
    – 18/20 3+ h’cap chase runs (?/MC 0)
    – 16/20 1+ h’cap chase wins (Bindaree/COD/MC/RTW)
    – 18/20 6+ runs @ 24f or more (Red Marauder 3 runs/MC 4 runs)
    – 16/20 won at 25f or more (Red Marauder/MP/MC/RTW)
    – 19/20 47% or more top3 chase strike rate (PDR)
    – 18/20 50% or more top3 chase strike rate (Amberleigh House/PDR)
    – 19/20 45% or more top3 chase/hurdle strike rate (Auroras Encore)
    – 17/20 won a 17k+ chase (PDR/MC/RTW)

  46. billymag says:

    Think a new thread would help Miinnehoma, after all this is a Grand National Forum, would make a bit of sense!!

  47. kj says:

    …its a rough quest!

  48. miinnehoma says:

    Last 23 GN winners (leaving out Red Marauder) -
    (only using 1 race but some were placed in 2)

    1; Top 3 Grand National.
    7; Top 3 Welsh National.
    4; Top 2 Irish National.
    1; Top 2 Scottish National.
    1; Top 2 Midland National.
    1; Top 2 Haydock GNT 28f.
    2; Top 2 Servo 28f.
    2; Top 2 Hennessy.
    1; 1st Ulster National.
    1; 1st Kerry National 24f.
    1; 1st Eider 33f.
    1; 1st Kim Muir 26f.

    OK, if The Last Samuri had won (close but no cigar) we would have had to add 1st Grimthorpe to the list, which didn’t sound right at the time.
    Why was The Last Samuri 8/1 JF anyway, was it just the Grimthorpe win or what. Only 8 chases, no Cheltenham/Aintree festival form, no top 3 @ 28f+ (now 19/23).