Grand National Runners 2010: Black Apalachi
Would Black Apalachi have won the Grand National had he not fallen at Bechers Brook second time round?
Hi everyone and apologies for the delay in new posts recently but I’ve been away on leave and busy working on some other projects. I thought I’d continue the possible runners for Grand National 2010 thread with the very interesting, Black Apalachi.
Three times a runner over the Aintree fences he has failed to complete on two occasions in the 2008 and 2009 Grand Nationals but recorded an emphatic win in the 2008 Becher Chase in between those two failures to negotiate the Aintree fences.
Over enthusiasm was blamed for his fall at the second fence in 2008 but he was going really well when unseating his rider at Bechers when in the lead in 2009. Would he have maintained his position after being in the lead for most of the race or would he have tired in the later stages of the race?
Bookmakers are obviously fearful of the horses chances for 2010 and his Grand National Odds are 25/1 with a number of firms including Stan James
It’s very difficult to be authoritative about how the race would have unfolded if Black Apalachi had stayed on his feet in 2009 but as he will only be aged eleven come the 2010 race and unlikely to be campaigned in a way that will increase his handicap mark he must have a very sound chance of being a strong challenger next April.
What do you think of Black Apalachi’s chances at Aintree? Would he have won in 2009 with a clear round? Can you be positive about the horse for 2010 if he already has two incompletions at Aintree? Give us your thoughts on Black Apalachi on this page.
This post has 3 comments
#1
July 7th, 2009 09:52
I backed Black Apalachi in 2008 when he was 66/1 and had no weight on his back. I thought he had been clobbered with too much weight after his Becher Chase win so didn’t back him this year, but as they were coming to Bechers 2nd time I started to wish I had a few quid on.
Whilst I don’t think anyone can say with any certainty that Black Apalachi would have won if he stayed on his feet, I think most people would agree that the horse would probably have finished somewhere in the top 4 or top 6. He was jumping well and travelling well, and was the hard-luck story in the race. He certainly wouldn’t have failed on the stamina front but perhaps his “Aintree Factor” weight may have told in the latter stages.
Looking through the horse’s profile gives the impression that he’s a bit of a slow horse he needs the mud to be flying to be at his best. I’m not so sure if that is actually the case, as I think this horse just needs a thorough test of stamina. 3m on bottomless ground provides the stiff test that he requires but over more extreme trips I don’t think extreme ground conditions are as important to him. He led them a merry dance for 22 fences this year, on ground that was considered faster than ideal for him. I don’t think he’s slow by any means.
As for next year, he’s due to go up a few lbs after his Bobbyjo Chase win so unless Dessie Hughes can get him beat a few times he will be running off an even higher mark next year. But if he gets there on a similar mark to this year he’ll certainly be one for the shortlist and will give us punters many headaches I should imagine! One thing I know for certain is this; if there are parts of the course that have the official going description as “soft” or “heavy” then I will be backing him for sure. Of 40 that would line up he would be one of only a few that would see out 4m4f in testing ground. His Becher Chase win was so impressive – he looked full of running at the end but the rest of them were absolutely legless. Given those sort of conditions he would have a massive chance.
#2
July 9th, 2009 18:29
He made my short list last year, and I must admit he was travelling well when he came down. Whether he would have won is too difficult to call, but in my opinion it wouldn’t be for a lack of stamina that would have been his defeat (given a clear round.)
I don’t know if he’ll make this year’s short list, but I usually find that previous years candidate pop-up year after year, so I say the’s a good chance.
The Bechers Chase seems to be a very influential race for the Grand National since Amberleigh House and Clan Royal ran in it, probably because it’s ran on the same course. So I suggest taking notes on this year’s contest.
#3
September 24th, 2009 17:52
Tc and Ben in keeping with Mr Pointment my first reaction was here is a horse who would go well in the national, like rummy I thought that he might have been a multiple winner. His jumping was immaculate, better than rummy himself. This was so in every race contended over the national course.
Then the race against Black Apalachi showed me that dispite a liking to the course, his stamina give out on the run in. The going was heavy that day but the national is nine furlongs more and higher class horses contend, this highlighted for me that the going would have to be similar to Mr Frisk’s year for him to at least have a chance.
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