Grand National Tips 2010 (2)
Posted on December 23rd, 2009 in Grand National 2010
Our initial Grand National 2010 Tips thread was the maximum size we want for this year so could I ask all our contributors to start using this thread for all the main discussions on your fancies etc on the big race.
This could be quite good timing after the Neptune Handicap Chase at Cheltenham today won by David Pipe’s improving youngster The Package. This race was won last year by 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome – Was there another Mon Mome in today’s race? If The Package might be a bit young for the Grand National how about Thetotherone who stayed on to finish second today?
Please keep letting us know your Grand National Tips
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#1
December 11th, 2009 17:17
Thought Trabolgan ran well today, first time out. He really needs now to run a very good race somewhere otherwise it’ll be touch and go whether he will make the cut at Aintree. Hope he runs in Welsh National.
#2
December 11th, 2009 22:43
Systemsman and crisp 73 the is an alternative to online racing post which cost nearly twenty quid a month you could try the racing post weekender which cost two pounds forty a week, less than a tenner a month. Of course you have to wait until Wednesday for updates.
#3
December 12th, 2009 05:04
The Package at 7 years next April would be too young whilst The Tother One seems to be rated a little high at 152. Looking at the top 4 from the Neptune Chase, nothing looks to have a good National profile.
Admin is now asking for National tips so I’ll give mine knowing my predictions will not affect odds at this stage….
Gone To Lunch 63 points
Niche Market 61 points
Church Island 61 points
Church Island will most likely go Irish National again. I won’t go in to the system behind my points just now but hope that between now & race day a few lower rated contenders will prove themselves as I don’t want to be left with 1-2 choices like last year!
#4
December 12th, 2009 05:13
Trabolgan ran a cracker. I wonder could he do it, like COD, which he beat in the ’05 RSA and Hennessy with top wt.
Would need a few more runs but still the right age, should be on a nice wt. and even fits the 1 yr. ago stats – 7 chases, 3 wins etc, etc.
Has the classic profile of many GN winners.
A class horse, off track for up to 2 yrs.( his case 3 yrs,), starts with low OR and improves with each race.
His OR 137 might look a bit low but 6 of the last 8 GN winners started that season between OR 133(Mon Mome) – 139. His betfair price – 70.
#5
December 12th, 2009 14:01
Earlier in the season I express my disappointment in Comply or die hurdle race. Take a look at Mon Mome hurdle race 1.50 at cheltenham thats how to run a hurdle race in preparation for the National.
#6
December 12th, 2009 16:35
Possol won another hurdle race today. Trainer seems to suggest that he won’t run over fences again until Racing Post chase at Kempton-the weights will already be out.
#7
December 12th, 2009 20:01
Possol had gained some support in the market after that hurdle win.
#8
December 12th, 2009 21:08
I’ve read on the Betfair forum that Butler’s Cabin is going the X-Country route with Enda Bolger
Re: Possol
I’ll be interested to see how Nacarat fares. Possol might well be flattered by his RPR with Ollie Magern at Perth.
A literal interpretation gives him an excellent chance (Ollie was also 5th in the RP Chase) but we all know Ollie is a different beast round Wetherby.
Possol has been advantaged by his Novice status over hurdles. Don’t get me wrong I still like him but I’d rather see how he stacks up over fences rather than in easy hurdle races.
#9
December 13th, 2009 02:10
Possol at 6 can’t be considered a National contender. If chase OR of 151 is right would have stacks of weight.
#10
December 13th, 2009 11:25
Arbor Supreme runs at 1.00 today at Cork, 2nd fave and a nice top 3 finish will do
Starting to think we wont see him over fences until the Bobbyjo in feb, but Hedgehunter went to the welsh national, so not sure
#11
December 13th, 2009 12:56
On the Possol too young issue…
He is now a 3rd season chaser and has run in 15 chases only being out of the top 3 in 2 chases – once on his chase debut in France and the other in the William Hill at Cheltenham, which came too soon after the Racing Post Chase according to his trainer.
He gave weight and a beating to Mon Mome last season and is generally better away from Cheltenham on flatter tracks.
Unless there is any physiological reason why a 7 year old cannot win a Grand National, I think that he has a very good chance against what looks to be a fairly average field this year – he has experience and form in big fields and in a truly run race (RP chase – providing that form holds up).
French horses seem to mature at a younger age and win King Georges, Gold Cups, Welsh Nationals etc at 6 or 7.
In historical terms his age is a negative, but he has many more positives.
#12
December 13th, 2009 14:07
Here’s some stats from last sixteen years to may be look out for by December 31st;
16/16 GN winners had a 45% win/ place s/r or more on this date in there GN winning season
16/16 had ran in at least 7 chases
16/16 had won 1 of their last 10 chases
16/16 had won/placed in C1 chase 20f or more
15/16 had won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more
(Lord Gyllene didn’t)
15/16 had won chase at 24f or more
(Red Marauder hadn’t and never did)
14/16 had won 3 chases or more
(Lord Gyllene, Hedgehunter hadn’t)
14/16 had ran at least two prep runs
(Miinnehoma/Royal Athlete came back from lengthy absences in the New Year)
#13
December 13th, 2009 14:23
16/16 GN winners had a 45% win/ place s/r or more on this date in there GN winning season
doesnt bode well for Niche Market
the more i am looking at the GN, the more i fancy my early fancy Arbor Supreme. He’s going down exactly the same route as Hedgehunter and i think the bet of the year could be for AS to win the bobbyjo and the GN
#14
December 13th, 2009 15:10
Arbor Supreme is no Hedgehunter
His run in the Irish National off only 10’12 was very poor on ground he should have liked and has put me off him for now
Difficult to know what to make of his run today – although Quel Esprit is thought of as top top class
I know that AS and Hedgehunter were similarly rated (early 140s) but I feel that Hedgehunter had acheived significantly more by winning better races (won Grand National trial & Thyestes – AS only placed in those races) and finishing 4th in Hennessy and 3rd in Welsh National.
AS is Irish rated 142 – I feel that this could go up a few lbs and leave him looking a bit vulnerable to more classier types around the 150 mark
But it will be interesting to see how he gets on this season
If he is McCoy’s mount he might well go off favourite – McCoy, McManus & Mullins
#15
December 13th, 2009 15:25
Not too sur what actually happened in the Irish National, but it seemed as if he ran into a bit of trouble. Would be interesting to see if he takes part in the WN but i dont think he will, as far as the stats go he looks right up there.
I’m not saying he’s the same as HH, but he’s being campaigned the same way
I thought he ran OK today, was clear that he needed the run and probably a bit further, was right up there all the way, till finding nothing in what looked like a decent novice race, a lot better than the one MM took part in yesterday
#16
December 13th, 2009 16:50
Agreed he could look very good after the Bobbyjo – but not for me until I’ve seen him again in a chase
#17
December 13th, 2009 17:04
yeah same, but i am waiting for a bet on the bobbyjo + GN double which would be juicy odds, but i wont be having a bet on the natioonal for a while yet
#18
December 13th, 2009 17:19
crisp 73 many thanks for those pre Dec 31st stats – they will go straight into my little GN stats black Book – must have taken ages to work out – many thanks so useful as I for one do believe as I did last year that you can find the GN winner by Dec 31 most years.
Now how many runners say in the top 60odd (from Tricky Trickster down to say Cerium + plus the odd special case)on Oddschecker.com fit these stats? – and we will have found our possible winners! I honestly think its that simple but how many will we be left with? (and allowing for the odd runner winning a big race after and fitting into all the key stats after Dec 31st ofcourse).
#19
December 13th, 2009 17:24
whose in the pre xmas list so far systems?
#20
December 13th, 2009 17:25
Arbor Supreme (33/1 with Coral! – how much longer? {not listed by many a bot of a worry].
“McCoy, McManus & Mullins”
Now there a combination for the useual GN day after winning story for the papers. McManus has wanted to win this race for ages and one day he will – its only a case of time. AS must be in any list if running of aything in the OR 140′s and 11.00 or under.
#21
December 13th, 2009 17:34
“TC says:
December 13, 2009 at 5:24 PM
whose in the pre xmas list so far systems?”
Your going to have to wait a lot longer I am afraid as I want to get it right and not cut any corners. I can tell you that these are – in no order:
Niche Market
Hello Bud
Gone To Lunch
Arbor Supreme
#22
December 13th, 2009 17:38
nice one, cant wait for the list and analysis.
Those are the top 4 for me at the moment though
#23
December 13th, 2009 18:48
Just a thought – think someone already mentioned it – but does miko de beauchene merit a discussion? . yes hes not been at his best the last few runs but six months ago he finished 3rd at haydock giving lumps of weight to rambling minster and finished in front of mon mome , we all know the dangers of overlooking horses whove run well when they were younger in a welsh national !! . he seems to have been around for ever but hes only nine and now finds himself running off 149 which means we have a welsh nat winner running with less than eleven stone on his back .. hes now with venetia williams … enough said although something at the back of my head seems to suggest his previous trainer was never keen to send him to aintree
#24
December 13th, 2009 19:02
Yeah, did mention him and his jumping certainly improved at Cheltenham. 2 of the falls he had a last year were in top class company. Hard to have any confidence in him this season till he puts in a few better displays, would think he’ll be in the WN and probably targetted at the GN if his jumping holds together
Is it a straight line through a horse thats fallen 5 times, even though he’s changed trainers and if he doesnt fall this year? For me it would be and he’s more than likely to slip into old habits, which cant be done at Aintree, but a couple of decent displays and he’s definitely worth a mention
#25
December 14th, 2009 11:47
Found confirmed dates for the relevant declaration stages for GN2010. Have posted in full on the appropriate thread. Of particular note:
Entries close noon Feb 2nd (tho as usual we probably won’t hear anything until the following day)
Weights announced on Feb 16th.
Roll on Feb!
#26
December 14th, 2009 12:48
Dont worry Gammers due to all the wonderful work by so many on this site so far we will has cracked it well before weif=ghts day on Feb16th!!
Cant recommend strongly enougth.
1. TC’s wonderful pre Dec31st trends
2. OR V PRP (+5 dif seems to be the absolute minimum)
3. The key trends a slsietd by many on this site
#27
December 14th, 2009 14:14
Arbor Supreme has a best RPR on left handed track of 111. Somebody last year unearthed a stat that the last 20 odd GN winners had a best RPR of 141 left handed. Still time for AS to change that although last 7 contests have all been right handed. Maybe Mr Mullins is trying to tell us something.
#28
December 14th, 2009 17:43
another stat for him to overcome, ideally he’d need a good 3rd in the Welsh National, otherwise i cant see where else he may run left handed until the national.
#29
December 14th, 2009 18:16
He has run over 28f+ 5 times in his career which is encouraging – all in Ireland
I can’t think of a race in Ireland over 28f+ on a left-handed track
Whereas Haydock, Aintree (obviously), Ayr, Chepstow, Cheltenham all have races at 28f+ in UK and are left-handed
He clearly stays well, has a left-handed best RPR of 121 but hasn’t run over more than 3 miles left-handed
Could be argued either way I guess
#30
December 14th, 2009 18:35
By Dec. 31st;
“16/16 had won 1 of their last 10 chases” – says crisp 73.
Well that blows out – My Will – unless he wins the Welsh Nat. or Lexus, which may effect his Wt. in GN.
Remember last years amazing work by crisp/stephen on the 30/30 stat – 5th in Hennessy etc, etc.
I forgot that Snowy Morning didn’t match that stat last year and nothing has changed, he had his chance in the Hennessy. So, that blows Snowy Morning out – blimey, thats 2 of my top 6.
#31
December 14th, 2009 18:36
It does look as if Willie Mullins wants to get a run into him left handed. He’s been declared for the hennessy, the neptune chase last friday and now the welsh national, so i think he may take part in the WN.
#32
December 14th, 2009 18:48
ps
The 5th in Hennessy etc, etc, stat, also blows out War of Attrition, he had his chance in the Hennessy. Thats 3 out of my top 6 gone.
#33
December 14th, 2009 18:52
War was one I never considered if he ran at the festival it would spoil his chances in the national. So they going to have to pick one or the other, but not both. Read he wants a lot rest between runs.
#34
December 14th, 2009 19:24
miinnehoma – Gold Cup is one of the key races, still like WoA and he should come down to a nice weight in April
#35
December 14th, 2009 19:31
Interesting stuff regarding Arbor Supreme. The Welsh National would be an obvious target but if he wins his handicap mark would be ruined. Having said that, I think this horse is better on a sound surface so the likely testing going at Chepstow might not be ideal. He could go there, get some useful experience but be found out by the ground and that would be a good result from a handicapping point of view. The alternative could be the big race at Haydock won by Rambo last year (Red Square Gold Cup) as that’s usually after the weights come out.
#36
December 14th, 2009 19:51
I would think he’ll go to the welsh national as i’d expect him to run in the boobyjo once the weights are out. The willhill trophy at the festival could be an option, but might be a little close to the GN
#37
December 14th, 2009 23:10
Sorry TC,
The Gold Cup maybe a great race and a good run in it is a bonus but it has nothing, nothing to do with crisp/stephen’s 30/30 stat.
The Stat is – Top 5 finish in Hennessy, Top 3 in Irish, Welsh, Scots National – OR – Top 2 over National fences (not including GN). – OR – 3x24f+ chase wins (one being at 28f+). Thats it, nothing more. That covers the last 30 winners including Mon Mome.
#38
December 14th, 2009 23:30
I see Niche Market falls down on your stats Minnehoma, he’s only won 2 races at 24f+ one at 29f. However he still my number one candidate.
He did however win the Irish National and third in an excellent Hennessy who I feel will be the Handicap race of the season.
#39
December 14th, 2009 23:45
cheers wasnt aware of that, rules a couple more out including Cane Brake and Turpin Green
#40
December 15th, 2009 01:16
Neil, it looks like Niche Market does fit the stats mentioned by Minnehoma due to his first in the Irish National. That’s definitely good enough. I worry though with a current OR of 148 that any further improvement before 16th Feb will see him weighted above 11 stone come race day.
Why are weights being announced late this year? I always remember them early Feb (last year 10th). Are they trying to assess the runs of as many contenders as possible this year?
#41
December 15th, 2009 01:52
Racing Post,
Niche Market, Mr Pointment and Silver Birch doubtful for Welsh National.
Niche Market has a mighty CV but not perfect. It would take a brave man not to back him.
I like Turpin Green but he would need a 2nd or 3rd in Welsh National and then win a little 24f race before GN.
Strange, no one has a GN price for him.
#42
December 15th, 2009 09:29
Would people really rule out WOA because he’s doesn’t fit this stat?
“Top 5 finish in Hennessy, Top 3 in Irish, Welsh, Scots National – OR – Top 2 over National fences (not including GN). – OR – 3×24f+ chase wins (one being at 28f+).”
What’s this stat telling us? To me it suggests that the last 30 National winners have all shown that they have the necessary level of ability/class to compete in top class staying chases and that they have a decent pedigree in those kind of contests. WOA won a Gold Cup over 3m2f beating 21 other horses. To me that shows that he has the required level of abililty, stays at least 3m2f and as a bonus can handle big fields. If he lines up next year he may not have taken the ‘traditional’ route to get there, but he has only ever run in one handicap thus far.
#43
December 15th, 2009 09:35
Meant to add: Turpin Green ran a shocker in the Grand Sefton last year and didn’t seem to enjoy the Aintree experience. I guess he’s not listed because the owner has more fancied and more likely runners e.g. Coe, Cloudy Lane, Old Benny, Trabolgan etc.
#44
December 15th, 2009 12:45
Stat are not perfect, but whatever stat are used are meant as a short cut to eliminate those without a chance. The’s always a chance you could eliminate the winner too. Of course and its an horse by horse thing if you’ve witness something special then remember stats are not everything.
#45
December 15th, 2009 14:13
Hopefully we can all keep it positive and all end up with the winner come April. Forgetting about the ’3x24f inc 1x28f’ -of what I was using last year to whittle the field down, 24/30 GN winners had top5 Hennessy etc(and West Tip, Seagram, Royal Athlete had experience in those races but not the required placing etc). So 27/30 had ran in those races. So those races have to be a good area to look in.
But what happens if, say, come April not many of those who line up raced in those races? (It happened I think in Lord Gyllene’s year though the majority of the field were also out of the handicap) If we’re going to come up with a strong ‘four’ or so in April, and hopefully a very healthy profit to show for it!, we need to look at the ‘other six’. Been trawling the archives and this is what I’ve come up with;
1.Ben Nevis, American who won Maryland Hunt Cup(32f)twice and was brought down in GN the year before he won. Haven’t heard in the press of anything like this being attempted?
2.Hallo Dandy, fourth in the GN the year before on unsuitable going. Had won at 28f.
3. West Tip, fell the year before he won. Had won a handful of chases at 24f or more, won at 29f, Unplaced in Welsh Nat. Won what is now William Hill Trophy at Chelt. Fest., 7th in Sun Alliance chase.
4. Seagram, won GN at first attempt. Won at 32f, won what is now William Hill trophy at Chelt. fest., 3rd in Racing Post chase.
5.Royal Athlete, fell in void GN, fell in Sun Alliance chase, fell in Irish Nat, fell in Hennessy. 3rd in Gold Cup, won at 28f.
6.Lord Gyllene, like Ben Nevis, had only raced in the UK for two sesons and was very obviously ‘run’ on a set plan for GN- mainly at left handed Uttoxeter, won at 34f, 2nd in Midlands Nat.
So one thing they do all have in common is 3 chase wins at 24f or more with one of those at 28f or more. There are, of course, other common factors. A useful tool to narrow the field.
The most recent winner outside the last 30 years that didn’t have the required profile race, nor had won at 28f, was Lucius, 78. He had won chases at 24f and finished 3rd in what now is Blue Square chase at Haydock.
I think races outside profile races that I will be looking out for are the Blue Square at Haydock,(8/37 GN winners ran in it) the Gold Cup(9/39 ran in it) and the William Hill Trophy at Chelt. Fest.(7/23 ran in it)
Of the Irish horses, who don’t regularly race in the UK, it’s been mentioned about the lack of long distance chases on left handed tracks. Form in the 24f or more top Leopardstown chases and at Listowel, Kerry Nat, does seem important. As well as their Irish Nat or Aintree race experience, Bobbyjo, Papillon, Montys Pass and Numbersixvalverde all had good form at Leopardstown or Listowel, as of course did recent runner up King Johns Castle. Last Suspect, twice 3rd in Irish Nat, won the Pierse chase at Leopardstown.
#46
December 15th, 2009 23:27
Finally got round to watching the betfred from this year and, what a great performance from Church Island! Jumped superbly and its pretty clear he’ll get further (another horse with Busted in his pedigree). As far as seasonal runs go – do they start from May 1st, therefore he’s had 5? Think he will head to Aintree with a hurdle race beforehand
Whats the overall opinion on Oodachee (has he also had 5 runs this season? – 3 of them on the flat)? Its easy to say he doesnt stay, but he wasnt too far away in the Irish national in 2007 (beaten 6 lengths). If he gains a decent chase win, he’d have a pretty good national profile.
#47
December 16th, 2009 08:39
TC, I really hope Church Island goes to Aintree. Seems to have had his RPR ammended once again. It’s now 150 and with a current OR143. RPR>OR +7. He is 100% on stats.
#48
December 16th, 2009 10:53
So, Turpin Green didn’t like the National fences. Well we can’t have that. That blows Turpin out.
Church Island and Oodachee are very interesting – 2nd Irish National and 2nd over National fences, both have had many lifetime runs 44 & 67 with zero falls. They seem to be taking the Monty’s Pass approach – run up to Oct. and then come back maybe Feb/march. Hard to find fault with them, except Oodachee would need a chase win of 17K+. Has run 23 chases, won his first 3 but hasn’t won any of the last 20 chases.
#49
December 16th, 2009 12:16
Turpin Green has loads of talent but it’s his head that’s the problem. Some days he is great (3rd in a Gold Cup) but he has thrown in some truly lamentable performances over the years inluding in SOP’s Hennessy, in a Betfair Bowl and in the Grand Sefton last year. It’s a shame because off his current mark (145) he could be really dangerous on a going day. He’s the sort that could go in at a big price at some point.
Church Island and Oodachee are both horses I was interested at the back-end of last season. I thought Oodachee was very disappointing at Sandown given he was in great form (2nd in the Topham) and loves good ground. I’ve written him off as a non-stayer to be honest and he’s probably not good enough anyway.
Church Island is another matter. In two Irish Nationals and a Bet365 he’s shown us that the class and stamina are there but I was put off him because he had such a busy start to the season. However, he hasn’t run now since the Charlie Hall at the end of October and doesn’t appear to have any entries over Christmas at this stage. Hopefully he’s having a mid-season break before a build up to the National but I have no idea if Aintree is the target so I won’t be getting involved AP.
#50
December 16th, 2009 17:01
I did struggle to work out why Church Island ran in the Charlie Hall, but he was put up 4lb for finishing nowhere near the front 3. This would guarantee he’d be in the national of a low weight especially as his last run was in England not Ireland therefore unlikely to be changed. If his target was the Irish National again, 143 is a high enough mark and there is no doubt that we would see him in the winter again, as it is i think he will head to Aintree with one run after the weights are out (maybe the same race at Newbury in February where he was 2nd to Darkness).
As far as the trends go – he’s spot on!!
Oodachee would have to win a chase worth 17k, 48 days before the national, i’d think Aintree is the target though
#51
December 16th, 2009 18:15
TC – Church Island is one of the few horses that has a lower UK rating (139 last time out) than Irish rating (144 last time out, now 143).
This year Irish National, Betfred & Kerry National – three decent runs but always losing out to a younger, faster horse – he looks pretty exposed in my view
His only victory since 1996 has come in a Veterans’ race – again does not scream National winner to me, but good place prospect perhaps
Although I will have to back him should he meet my top 3 on stats come the race (that’s a given), I really cannot see him being good enough to actually win the race – he seems to set the races up for something else
Plus there will be several front runners in the field
#52
December 16th, 2009 22:18
Don’t know how well The Package fits into the Stats, but his win means his OR has gone up to 141 from 132 a rise of 9 pounds. He also won the same trial race won by Mon Mome.
On other Grand National news front, one or two on here liked Parson Legacy, he’s dropped 4 pounds from 143 to 139.
#53
December 16th, 2009 23:00
Pablo – i agree to an extent, that he could have done with a decent chase win and he has been pipped at the line, both his Betfred and the IN, it was clear he will get further though.
Does a national candidate have to of won in a big race though? More recent winners have recorded big wins but I’ve tried to find a national winner similar to CI, and Papillon is certainly one that comes close. He also came 4th in the IN, came 2nd to Bobbyjo the following year and had never recorded a big chase win – maybe CI is due one
As for The Package – he’s surely one to take over from CoD in 2 years time maybe
#54
December 17th, 2009 16:25
Meant to post this up earlier in the week but I forgot. A horse that caught my eye over the weekend was CALGARY BAY. Classy novice hurdler a few seasons ago and decent novice chaser last season he was having his first start over 3m in a class 2 handicap chase at Doncaster and accounted for the likes of Alderburn, That’s Rhythm and Boychuck very easily indeed. Only a 6yo 2nd-season chaser at the moment, it might be that that we are looking more to the future than 2010, but he could be one to keep an eye out for with 2011 or 2012 in mind.
#55
December 17th, 2009 17:47
Help required.
How do you translate the requiremet (+ other C1/2 requirements) to have won/placed in C1 chase at 20f or more (pre 31st Dec trends)into Irish running horses? I was tryng to assess Arbor Supreme and others. How do we translate C1/C2 in Irish racing (where most runs or all have been on in Irish races)? What are other people doing or using for this?
#56
December 17th, 2009 17:52
Not sure systems, there usually Graded A/B/C, AS has a 3rd in the Thyestes and 3rd in his last run, last season which was a pretty decent prize. So i’m pretty sure he’s had a top 3 in a class 1
He does still lack 3 wins over 24f though and an RPR best of 141+
#57
December 17th, 2009 17:53
“He does still lack 3 wins over 24f though and an RPR best of 141+” (left handed)
#58
December 18th, 2009 11:57
Interesting that yesterday I mentioned Calgary Bay catching my eye and today this appeared on the SLife site:
“Henrietta Knight feels Calgary Bay could turn out to be a future Grand National contender following his impressive success at Doncaster last weekend.
Considered good enough to contest the Arkle Trophy as a novice chaser last season, the six-year-old benefited from a step up to three miles when winning as he liked on his seasonal reappearance.
Knight feels there is plenty more to come over staying trips from her charge, who may even return to Doncaster for the Sky Bet Chase on January 30.
“We were thrilled with him and it’s great he’s come right again now. I think all he needs is a trip on decent ground,” said Knight.
“In fairness to him, I think he just isn’t very fast. A few people were questioning whether he was genuine or not last year, but he just doesn’t have that extra pace at the end of a race.
“I think he’ll actually get further than three miles in time and I’d like to think he could be National horse one day.
“The handicapper has put him up 11lb for his last win and we might have a look at the race that used to be the Great Yorkshire Chase back at Doncaster in January.
“There is also a handicap at Cheltenham we might have a look at next month, but his main aim for the season would be the William Hill Trophy at the Festival.
“He’s a huge horse so carrying weight wouldn’t be a problem for him.”
#59
December 18th, 2009 13:05
More help reqired
Re: the trend ” Top 5 hennessy. Tp 3 in Irish etc etc – or Top 2 over National fences etc etc”.
What races at Ainteree are run over national fences? (I know its on this site somewhere but I cant back check 1000′s of posts).
I was looking up the form of Dont Push It who won the
John Smith’s Handicap Chase at Aintre in April 2009 – does this count?
#60
December 18th, 2009 13:33
Re: the trend ” Top 5 hennessy. Top 3 in Irish etc etc”
I’am just wondering if we should include the fisrt 5 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Was looking u the form of Cane Brake who came 5th. This does seem an obvious race to add but I guess the stats dont bear this out?
#61
December 18th, 2009 14:24
Systemsman – main races over GN fences
Topham (won by Irish Raptor back in April)
Becher Chase (won by Vic Venturi last month)
Grand Sefton (won by Dev last month)
#62
December 18th, 2009 17:35
Pablo – many thanks that was very helpful.
#63
December 18th, 2009 17:47
Isnt the foxhunter chase over the national course? – won by Trust Fund this year
#64
December 18th, 2009 18:10
Systemman when asked about Grand National for Dev the jockey told the beeb that he would not stay .
#65
December 18th, 2009 18:38
Foxhunters’ Chase is run over GN too
But like the Grand Sefton it doesn’t really have a great record at providing future winners I don’t think
Topham (Bindaree & Monty’s Pass) & Becher (Amberleigh House & Silver Birch) have been better
And of course the GN itself (recent winners Red Marauder (F), Amberleigh House (3rd), Hedgehunter (F), Silver Birch (F) & Mon Mome (10th) had all run in the race the year before winning it)
So that’s 7/9 that have had course experience – in fact all 7 had run over GN fences within the previous 12 months
The 2/9 that didn’t run over GN fences were Numbersixvalverde (never run in UK before I don’t think) & COD
#66
December 18th, 2009 19:26
The following horses ran in last season’s Topham or GN or this season’s Becher AND are listed in the GN Betfair market – is this season’s GN winner among them?
Big Fella Thanks – GN
Black Apalachi – GN
Brooklyn Brownie – GN
Butler´s Cabin – GN
Can’t Buy Time – GN
Cloudy Lane – GN
Finger Onthe Pulse – Topham
Hello Bud – Becher
Himalayan Trail – GN
Irish Invader – GN
Irish Raptor – Becher, Topham
Kilbeggan Blade – GN
L’Ami – GN
Mon Mome – GN
My Will – GN
Offshore Account – GN
Oodachee – Topham
Palypso De Creek – Becher
Parsons Legacy – GN
Preists Leap – GN
Rambling Minster – GN
Royal Rosa – Becher
Silver Birch – GN
Snowy Morning – GN
Southern Vic – GN
Stan – GN
State Of Play – GN
Vic Venturi – Becher
#67
December 18th, 2009 19:30
Yes indeed Neil – id strike a line through Dev – Jamie Moore said he wouldnt stay the trip in an aeroplane…
Does anybody think my will should be up there with the best fancies… he ran a great race last year to finish 3rd and i would think he passes most of the major stats … he only had 2 prep runs last season which i believe counted against him…this year hes already had 3 – he passes the previous course experience test and the crisp stat , if you go back and look to last year i thought that he was staying on again dourly up the elbow. can anyone tell me if my will has any chinks in the stats armour .ive overlooked him up till now because he wasnt good enough last year. but on reflection that didnt stop mon mome ,amberleigh house or indeed hedgehunter who looked to be struggling when he feel. i reckon this year if my will is held up and produced right at the last minute he could well do it. im going to add him to my list or 150 – that could be about 10-13 . not bad
#68
December 18th, 2009 19:41
My Will should be thereabouts and could get placed again, i dont think he’ll run off 150 in the GN though. The one problem i have with him, is that he hasnt won for over 3 years (11 starts) other than that he’s got a pretty good profile
#69
December 18th, 2009 19:50
RP quotes
07Nov09 Down Royal (24Sft ,RPR151)
He`s run a great race, he`s a very genuine horse and handled the ground well. That`ll pay for a few month`s training fees. – Christian Williams, jockey; We’re really happy with My Will, he just lacks the class for these Grade 1 races at this stage. He’ll be back later in the season for those 4 mile races. – Harry Fry, assistant pupil
04Apr09 Aintree (36GS ,RPR162)
It was a big experiment whether we would stay and I thought from two fences out that we might just have it but he has still run a great race. – Andy Stewart, owner
#70
December 18th, 2009 19:52
Yeah Fair point TC – my only worry as you say is whether phil smith will let him run off his true OR. Im gonna put him on my shortlist – hes a sound jumper,stays and if rubys on board i reckon he can go close again…
#71
December 18th, 2009 19:53
Suggests that they now know he can get the trip – so perhaps he will be ridden closer to the pace this year
Also looks to have had a more conventional preparation this year (3 runs already)
Although I seem to remember Nicholls saying that he thought he might save My Will from the National this year because he might not like going back over the fences – but then trainer’s are paid to train not talk and so you can’t take everything they say as gospel
#72
December 18th, 2009 19:56
txs pablo … sounds like hes been geared up for another go. dont know why ive overlooked him up until now but he deserves to be in my top 6 . he had some decent horses behind at down royal and back in handicp company i’m pretty keen on him . i reckon this is the “safe one” the one who’ll give u a great run for ur money and might just actually win if none of the unexposed types cut the mustard
#73
December 18th, 2009 19:57
ill have a few bob on at a tasty price and see what unfolds …:-)
#74
December 18th, 2009 20:02
Systemsman,
GN winners since 1970 who ran in a Gold Cup;
70,Gay Trip, 6th in Gold Cup in same season as GN win (as far as I’m aware no other key race, did finish 4th in King George at Kempton, personally I prefer best left handed form);
81,Aldaniti, 3rd in ’79 (placed in a Hennessy and Scots Nat;
82,Grittar, 6th in same season, (probably best performance at 24f or more but did win over National fences at 22f)
88,Rhyme N Reason, fell in same season,(won Irish Nat, placed in Welsh Nat,5th in Hennessy)
92,Party Politics, pulled up in ’91,(placed in Hennessy and Welsh Nat)
94,Miinnehoma, 7th in same season,(placed in Welsh Nat)
95,Royal Athlete, 3rd in ’93 (ran in key races but not placed)
96,Rough Quest, 2nd in same season (also placed in Hennessy,Welsh Nat)
I reckon at least a Top6 place in a Gold Cup for key race performance especially if your looking for performances at 24f or more. Personally I’m not so keen on Cane Brake due to poor win place s/r of 40% (1 year before GN 16/16 47% or more)though his Gold Cup 5th and win in C1 chase at Leopardstown gives himn a good profile does it not with the other trends we are using. I’m really curious to see how this win/place s/r 1 year before GN works out because it looks very strong(would have been a big negative for Rambling Minster this year) and is a negative for, amongst others, Vic Venturi and Niche Market.
Pablo, I make it that 14/30-9/15 GN winners had experience in one way or another of the GN fences.
#75
December 18th, 2009 20:03
My Will passes the OR/RPR stat. He ran well in last year’s National.
However it was his second to the listener in Ireland which showed he might still have it.
For the moment he on my books, but when the weights come out will have to see then.
#76
December 18th, 2009 20:06
Crisp I think Grittar was fifth in the Gold Cup.
I remember because the TV race reporters was talking about him coming on for the run.
#77
December 18th, 2009 20:27
Crisp – where are you churning all these stats from, keep up the good work!
According to those winners only Royal Athlete had not performed in one of the key races, he had however won 3x over 24f, including a win over 28f.
Therefore the Gold cup doesnt need to be used as a key race?
#78
December 18th, 2009 20:43
My Will – I have given him a score of 12/13. Only falls down on no Chase win in lats 10 chase runs. No win for 3 years – now that not good. Has a GN winner won with no win for three years?
OR 150 (this is the very top mark I am prepared to consider for the winner)
PRR 166 +16!
TS157
A top profile but the weight – will he run of OR 150? (is this not 11.01 if Mon Mome is 11.12 on OR 161?) – would need to be under 11.0 (unlikely)for me to back him but likely to be in my top 10 nevertheless
#79
December 18th, 2009 20:55
I use OR 157 as my top or weight 11-05 which gives me breathing space for those just around 11 stone.
#80
December 18th, 2009 20:56
systems – Top weight was reduced to 11’10 last year, therefore My Will would currently be 10’13. Doubt he’ll run off 150 though
#81
December 18th, 2009 20:58
I think the top weight is now 11-10 … so 150 i think would be 10-13 . that would be fine . if he stays on 150.. just the dreaded “no win in last 10 chases” to conquer – but what if he wins a la hedgehunter or cod style after xmas ..! then he’d have the lot ..! . but im sure his 12/13 must be one of the best stats wise.. will be interested to find out systems man whenever u have any 13/13s in there when ur ready to play your hand :_)
A week to Xmas and the goose is getting fat and my magnificent 7 list has been amended
MY WILL = 3 PRE XMAS RUNS
NICHE MARKET = 2 PRE XMAS RUNS
GONE TO LUNCH = 3 PRE XMAS RUNS
HELLO BUD = 3 PRE XMAS RUNS
OVER THE CREEK = 1 PRE XMAS RUNS
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE = 2 PRE XMAS RUNS
DREAM ALLIANCE = 1 PRE XMAS RUN
#82
December 18th, 2009 21:22
I would think My Will would run in the Gold Cup again after the weights are out, after his run this year. So i doubt he’ll amend the fact he hasnt won in 10 chases prior to the GN
#83
December 18th, 2009 21:29
TC, yeah the 3 or more chase wins at 24f or more inc 1 or more at 28f or more does tie in all six of the winners in the last 30 years with no top5 Hennessy etc. Just for the record 17/30 GN winners had 3x24f inc 1x28f or more.
Neil S; I’m using Times Archive for most of these stats, some I’ve found on the web. According to the Times ’82 Gold Cup finishing order was Silver Buck, Bregawn, Sunset Cristo, Diamond Edge, Captain John, Grittar.
#84
December 18th, 2009 22:20
Fifth or sixth makes little difference. I was recalling from memory. Thought Night Nurse finished sixth. Silver Buck won which I backed. Also got the race before and after in an each way patent. Unfortunately being new to betting I did equally divided instead of win and place. I remember that Night Nurse was fancied to win that year.
#85
December 18th, 2009 22:50
SILVER BIRCH: yes I have one 13/13 and one or two very, very close (its two 13/13′s if we count 1/2/3 in previous GN as meeting the key “Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 in Irish, Welsh, Scots National etc etc trend)
You’ll just have to wait a wee bit longer and my lsit will be posted.
Any long priced runners i should look at? – we dont want to miss anything good – any views.
Neil S “I use OR 157 as my top or weight 11-05 which gives me breathing space for those just around 11 stone.”
You are statistically correct to do this but I am prepared to take a risk to reduce the numbers (last year was a new high for ten years on OR 148). Ofcourse if something very special has OR 151/152 I wont ignore it.
#86
December 18th, 2009 23:26
systems
i cant think of too many many high priced runners, just going through the list on BF
A New Story
Brooklyn Brownie
Air Force One?
Parsons Pistol
Beat the Boys
Gungadu
Toby Jug
Casey Jones
jass
merigo
Coe
oodachee
All of those dont hit the stats, but arent too far away, most need another 24f+ win or a placing in a class 1, Jass could be an interesting one though – 4th in the rehearsal, maybe a candidate for 2011
#87
December 18th, 2009 23:43
Dont forget Church Island either, who is still 180/1
#88
December 19th, 2009 00:36
Crisp if you check Dick Saunder’s obituaries in the independent you see he finished fifth. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/dick-saunders but like I said its really splitting hairs.
#89
December 19th, 2009 00:41
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/dick-saunders was the address I was trying for.
#90
December 19th, 2009 02:53
Air force One was an interesting one TC . 2nd In a Henessy but not been out this season yet and times getting on . His OR looks plenty high enough too if were working on 161 being top…However he’s a classy horse and would be an exciting contestant if he turned up..Church Island a fair shout too . 2nd in an irish nat and ur right a decent price on betfair . Has Mr Hourigan made any noises about taking him to aintree yet? . I guess the other final question I have at the mo is are there any other classy horses that may end up running and accordingly will have to run off higher than 161 or do u think Phil Smith has already decided thats going to be the ceiling and that if anything classier runs ( bar denman) 161 would be the max . I’m just worried a lot of us are working on 161 when maybe a classy horse will be the fly in the ointment and run off somthing higher than 161 and some horses say approx 154 – 157 that we are currently ignoring might end up on the eleven stone marker or just below
#91
December 19th, 2009 07:11
We are working on the assumption that as last winner of the National he will be there to defend his title and that anything better, like Notre Pere, would have forfeited by race day. Leaving Mon Mome top weight on hundred and sixty one, of course we could be wrong.
#92
December 19th, 2009 09:16
Neil S, you’re right about splitting heirs,Reg Green in his ‘A Race Apart’ a kind of biography of the National also has Grittar has 6th. From notes I made last year I discovered that even Foinavon finished 7th in the Gold Cup, last of 7 finishers!
No GN winner has ran in the Gold Cup now for 13 years but we’ve just had a decade of lowish top weight OR’s so for instance What’s Up Boys OR152 and Royal Auclair OR153 had to lug 11-6 and 11-10 around in ’02 and ’05. Had they both raced in GN in the mid 90′s they could have been carrying something like 10-7. The Gold Cup could well turn out to be a key race this season.
#93
December 19th, 2009 09:31
I would not have backed Foinavon with your money crisp, but that the nature of the national and what keeps public interest. Ps a workmate of mine told me that a workmate of his dad had a pound on Foinavon when it won.
#94
December 19th, 2009 11:01
Silver Birch
There are a few earlier posts on Church Island – my gut feeling is that he will go to Aintree with one run after the weights are out
#95
December 19th, 2009 12:10
Crisp you make an excellent point about the Gold Cup as a trial
In the 1990s when OR was higher for winners:
Party Politics (pulled up GC 1991) won GN 1992 off 10’7 OR 153 – top OR in race 167
Minnehoma 7th GC a few weeks before won GN 1994 off 10’8 OR 153 – top OR in race 169
Royal Athlete (3rd in GC 1993) before won GN 1995 off 10’6 OR 155 – top OR in race 173
Rough Quest 2nd GC a few weeks before won GN 1996 off 10’7 OR 152 – top OR in race 166
So while we are in a likely OR 161 situation, should topweight be 165 or more, some the GC runners rated around 150-155 (or below) may be well-weighted under 11’0
Cane Break
My Will
State Of Play
War Of Attrition
#96
December 19th, 2009 12:13
TC will check them all out but from what you say they are unlikely to be in our top six – but best to check though and I will. Hope to have my list out by Tuesday night could be earlier.
From my work so far there are only a few this year and this early who seem to have a very good profile for the winner – less than last year I think. I am confident we will crack it this year (I also hope Arbor Supreme comes 3rd in the Welsh Natonal!!! and keeps the same OR ratng ofcourse)
How is our pre new year poll going – anyone got the latest update on this?
#97
December 19th, 2009 12:15
It’s difficult to ignore a horse that has run well in the GC off <11’0 in the GN
State Of Play & My Will both placed last year carrying over 11’0
#98
December 19th, 2009 15:40
- A.P. Gone To Lunch -
Might be a good headline next april.
Would J.P. be big hearted enough to allow A.P. to ride G.T.L. in the G.N.
If G.T.O. finishes 2nd./3rd. in Welsh National, he would have a chance of emulating Bindaree ’02 and Party Politics ’92 – top 5 Hennessy, top 3 W.N. and then win G.N. in the same season.
Welsh National will also be D-Day for Dream Alliance, Flintoff and My Will.
#99
December 19th, 2009 19:12
Gone To Lunch a 5star bet for anyone.
OR 149 – now thats high enougth if anything I would like him either to not run in WN or to drop his OR a point or two or three. So we dont want him to win!!
#100
December 19th, 2009 19:20
TC a taster for you of my forcoming post.
Church Island a possible 13/13?! (or 12+) – I will explain what the points are when I post.
OR 143 – spot on
RPR 150 – good
+7 – OK
2nd Irish National
His only negative is his strike rate of 44.82% just .18 below the magic 45% so you can if fact give him the benefit of the doubt I think (and his next race will let us know one way or another).
Five pre Christmas runs so far a little unusual I think
May not be quite up the taking on one or two(?) at the finish but cannot be ignored if he turns up.
#101
December 19th, 2009 21:23
Systemsman
I wouldn’t rule out Church Island on the basis of his runs since last May
Monty’s Pass (also better on good ground) was unique in that he had a summer campaign – ran 4 or 5 times before 1 September I think
I use 1 September as the start of the GN season
#102
December 19th, 2009 21:27
Clearly summer jumping doesn’t go back that far – at least in Crisp’s excellent stats terms!
#103
December 19th, 2009 22:29
What are the chances of Joe Lively lining up at Aintree, seems to have a spot on national profile and is noow only rated 149
#104
December 19th, 2009 23:52
TC – are you Kwality on Betfair AP?
#105
December 19th, 2009 23:57
Joe looks good on 149, he’s down to run in the King George. He was 6th. in RSA, 6th. W.N. and 10th. Hennessy but he has the other profile 3x24f+(1x28f) which is 6/30. Lord Gyllene in ’97 was the last G.N. winner with this profile, maybe we are due one.
The only small negatives I can see are: form -500, not priced on Betfair and what about the Strong Gale thing.
#106
December 20th, 2009 00:00
aye – and you’re Ninetieth Minute?
#107
December 20th, 2009 00:05
Some bullish comments on RP quotes – but his breeding doesn’t scream National winner
24Jan09 Cheltenham (26Hy ,RPR165)
He deserves to go for the Gold Cup after that. He is a different horse around Cheltenham and quickens at the top of the hill without you asking him. -Joe Tizzard, Jockey. When he hit the second last, he went sideways, but he is a courageous chap. Who knows if he will be good enough for a Gold Cup, but Denman hasn’t raced this season and Kauto Star is brilliant but beatable around Cheltenham. We might never get another horse good enough to run in the Gold Cup and he deserves to go there, so for sure he’ll run. -Colin Tizzard, Trainer.
15Nov08 Cheltenham (28Sft ,RPR157)
I have never had one a quarter as good and I never will again. He was awesome today and back to his very best. Long term, his target has to be the Grand National. He jumps and he stays, and we’ll never have another one as good for the race – Richard Dimond (owner) and Joe Tizzard
#108
December 20th, 2009 00:08
TC spot on
#109
December 20th, 2009 11:18
Joe Lively – some profile. Annother 13/13 – has 3×24 with one at 28f A class horse with that 6th in RSA.
OR 149 – OK
RPR 165 – very good (maybe too high?)
+ 16 – very good
TS 154- very good
Only negative needs a 1/2/3 this season.
Not listed on Oddschecker.com so we need to wait – is he entered? Is he aiming for the Gold Cup or something similar? Could not be ignored if in GN.
Goes to show if you only look at the top 20 on Oddschecker you will miss real diamonds like Church Island and Joe Lively.
#110
December 20th, 2009 11:21
Just been looking at Joe Lively’s pedigree and i think it would be quite a negative, however i’m only going to use the stats for the GN
#111
December 20th, 2009 13:21
I didn’t realise Joe Lively’s OR had dropped so much. His stats are perfect. His dosage though is very speed top heavy isn’t it for a post 1989 GN winner. Still he has won at 28f. Interesting.
Systemsman, I’ve always rounded up or rounded down win/place s/r % in the stats that I’ve quoted to the nearest whole number.
Church Island does seem to be on a winter break(as Monty’s Pass had). He’s had two bites at Irish National on a much lower mark than he’s on now so I would have thought Aintree would be the place for him unless of course connections have their eye on another big prize somewhere else or trainer is convinced Aintree’s not for him.
Like Pablo I’ve also been using 1st September as a season starting point.
#112
December 20th, 2009 13:28
Not sure I’ve posted this before, GN winners who ran in Sun Alliance chase;
70 Gay Trip, 2nd
83 Corbiere, 3rd
86 West Tip, 7th
88 Rhyme N Reason, ur
94 Miinnehoma, 1st
95 Royal Athlete, fell
96 Rough Quest, 4th
98 Earth Summit, 7th
08 Comply Or Die, 3rd
#113
December 20th, 2009 15:38
Yes, this is a slight negative for Gone To Lunch, who pulled up in the R.S.A. It’s not a good sign when a horse steps up in class for the first time and doesn’t even finish the race, never mind finish in the top 7 – a class horse should.
This question was asked 2 years ago but I think no one gave an answer – Has any G.N. winner ever pulled up in a previous G.N.
#114
December 20th, 2009 16:30
I think that any horse who races in the cheltenham festival must be taken on the individual merit. Some like Grittar will bring them on and others like Garrison Savannah might just push them over the edge. Of course the gap between the two festivals must also be taken into account.
#115
December 20th, 2009 18:00
Heres another strong stat that once again held up last year
8 of the last 10 national winners had previously run at the cheltenham festival ..
The only two not to do so were numbersixvalverde and red marauder..
Previously ran at a cheltenham festival
MON MOME Yes
COMPLY OR DIE Yes
SILVER BIRCH Yes
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE No
HEDGEHUNTER Yes
AMBERLEIGH HOUSE Yes
MONTYS PASS Yes
BINDAREE Yes
RED MARAUDER No
PAPILLON Yes
#116
December 20th, 2009 20:48
8/10 not bad but I think most of the runners have run at the festival.
Some who have not-
Notre Pere
Big Fella Thanks
Bachstage
King Johns Castle
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Offshore Account
Flintoff
Southern Vic
Iris De Balme
#117
December 20th, 2009 21:04
Does Snowy Morning fit in with the stat, as he finished 3rd in 08? He’s slipped back down to 149
#118
December 20th, 2009 21:42
I have Snowy Morning on a 12+/13.
OR 149 – Good
RPR 167 – very good (maybe too high?)
+ 18 – very good
Won over 24f which is a bit low but still possible.
Now on the Top 5 finish in Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh Nat et etc trend he fails as it specifically states “not including GN” under Top 2 over Natonal fences (but I have given him a + for 3rd in GN)
#119
December 20th, 2009 22:13
Forgot to add church Island to that list.
TC, you mean the 30/30 stat – 5th Hen etc.
Snowy Morning does not match that stat. It’s top 2 over National fences not including G.N.
There are 6 elements to this stat and the pattern was set early on. For the last 24 years or so, nothing had to be added – no top 7 in G.C. or top 3 in Xfactor or top 2 in Strictly.
But you may add what you want.
After saying all that, I have a soft spot for Snowy and if he is on 10.12 I will back him. I think the first year he ran 5 miles in the race and last year 11.08 was 2 much but he still ran a great race ’til near the elbow. I think he deserves a big win.
crisp 73, is that your money going on Church Island -189 down to 75 with Betfair.
#120
December 21st, 2009 08:59
These two stats make sense to me:
1. Won over 3m+ – indication (but no more than that) that the horse is a stayer, but really helps highlight the chancers that enter 20f horses
2. Key race form – Hennessy, Welsh, Irish, Bechers, Topham, GN, Scottish – all long distance Class 1 big-field handicaps or over the GN fences – I would add the GC because a top 5 shows a degree of class
This one, however, is no substitute for key race form, which has either been achieved or hasn’t:
3 x 24f inc 1 x 28f – a stronger indication that a horse is a stayer – but what happens if the 28f race was at Exeter in a Class 3?
#121
December 21st, 2009 13:06
I don’t know about you lot, but when I come to treating the question of staying I will be tackling it in several ways. The lowest pass will be for those who done 3 miles plus over hurdles. The next will be for those who won in a non grade 1 chase of 3 miles plus. The next is same as the last except for grade 1 races only. Then I be marking the 3 miles 2 furlongs grade 1 only, with 1/2 furlong leeway the first of these will be those will are placed only and the highest mark goes to those who have won.
#122
December 21st, 2009 22:03
Here is my pre new year list of who coud win the GN 2010. It exclusds the result of the Welsh Natonal ofcurse so we may need to make a little ammendment later.
Its possibe i amy have missed one (I did last year)so reserve the right to amend between now and Dec 31st.
11 possible winners (with one who has not raced this year so cannot be seriously considered until he has).
In no order
Niche Market
Arbor Supreme
State Of Play
Hello Bud
Character Building (no run so far)
Gone To Lunch
My Will
Snowy Morning (only won at 24f)
Parsons Legacy (he’s back!)
Church Island
Joe Lively (no quote on Oddschecker so far)
You can probably discard Character Building* and Joe Lively* but we will keep them in for the moment incase they do run.
In order:
Parsons Legacy 22+ OR 139 RPR 153
Church Island 22+ OR 143 RPR 150
Gone To Lunch 22 OR 149 RPR 159
Joe Lively* 22 OR 149 RPR 165
Arbor Supreme 21++ OR 142 RPR 148
Hello Bud 21++ OR 142 RPR 145
My Will 21+ OR 150 RPR 161
Character Building* 21 OR 145 RPR 150
Snowy Morning 21 OR 149 RPR 167
State Of Play 20++ OR 145 RPR 165
Niche Market 19+ OR 148 RPR 154
A surprsie or two dont you think – Niche Market last of 11! Parsons Leagcy top!
Well tahst the points (I could explain but it would take ages it includes the pre Jan 1st Stats and the 30/30 stats etc)
Who do I personelly like: Any of the above could win but ……
1. Hello Bud – will give his all and will do well – but will he win? This horse will not let us down – will be there or therabouts!! Loves Aintree.
2. Arbor Supreme looks great especiely if he comes 2nd/3rd in Welsh Nat (dont wont hie to win).
3. Gone to Lunch
4. Niche Market – just cant be ignored
5. Parsons Legacy – great profile.
6. State Of Play – must have a chance of OR 145 (if allowed ro run of this)
More info later.
#123
December 21st, 2009 22:08
Systemsman interesting list
What do + and ++ mean?
Or is this secret black book stuff, have to kill you etc?
#124
December 21st, 2009 22:52
+ and ++ just means OR137 to OR146 (+)and won at 27f or more (+)
The final list was as much a surprise to me as any one else.
I like my personal list best (than the long list) the fisrt four especiely HB, AS, GTL and NM and I am happy to take six against the field – with eleven possible (I think its the same as last year on my first scores/list.
So many Irish trained runners this year and hardly any runner with a perfect profile (Niche Market being a good example) – but the best do stand out between OR 137 and OR 150 (all in my long list)
Any other list/scores out there?
#125
December 21st, 2009 23:10
nice stuff systems, really glad i finally took an AP price on Church Island – i couldnt resist 200/1!!
Does Arbor Supreme still fit in, as he’s only won twice over 24f?
Where was Mon Mome on the list last year?
looks like we’re looking along the right lines
#126
December 21st, 2009 23:14
Have to agree at the moment your top 4 looks pretty solid:
Hello Bud – Scottish National winner, completed over GN fences jumping well
Niche Market – Irish National winner, great run in Hennessy right up there with Denman most of the way
Gone To Lunch – key race place in both SN & Hennessy
Arbor Supreme – Willie Mullins, JP McManus & plenty of experience in long distance races
The others I’d be interested in are more speculative:
Comply Or Die – want to see some decent form first and better preparation than last year
Cane Break – ideally under OR 150
Black Apalachi – disappointing that he hasn’t been out yet but ran really really well until falling last year
My Will – has a big race in him if allowed to run off lower mark than last year
Possol – needs a good run in RP Chase, but could blow the age stat out of the window
Snowy Morning – an old favourite of mine and off 149 would be in with a great chance if in decent form and with goodish ground
#127
December 22nd, 2009 00:14
TC: “Does Arbor Supreme still fit in, as he’s only won twice over 24f?”
There is still time for AS to get that 24×3 with one at 28f or more or a 1/2/3 in Welsh Nat (I’am hoping for a 3rd place – we dont want him to win and his OR to go up) so I have given him the benefit of the doubt as his profile is so so good otherwise – if he came 1/2/3 in WNat he may even have the best profile of any runner. I strongly advise a bet on AS before the Welsh Nat.
I just can’t resist a possible McCoy(?)/Mullins/McManus partnership if it comes off can you?(McCoy ad McManus so want to win the big one, and will one day, you jst know its going to happen – why not 2010 with such a good horse!!).
#128
December 22nd, 2009 00:20
i think i may take a price on AS, i’ve fancied him for quite a while. He could well be close to favouritism with a 3rd in the WN, (big ask though). I’m more than happy to have taken a price on CI
#129
December 22nd, 2009 00:29
Good luck with that list systemsman. A few of your selections ran in the Hennessy and here was what TF had to say about them.
Niche Market (3rd) Was back to his best with a run behind him, 3lb out of the weights on the day, ideally served by more of a test too, lacking the gears of the first 2 in the straight, though maintaining his own effort; the welsh national (no longer running in it) looks a possibilty for him, and Aintree remains realistic further down the line.
Gone To Lunch (5th) Is a thorough stayer, his standout efforts having come on the only occasion he’s had full use made of that, and, more than any of these, he strikes as a leading contender for the Welsh National, tough and reliable as he is, doing more than enough to suggest he’s in good order, sticking on after being shuffled back to a poor position around halfway.
My Will (7th) Is reliable and shouldn’t be judged on this, in a difficult position as it went (held up and widest of all), still doing better than most from off the pace.
Snowy Morning (8th) Has returned from 6 months off in better form than this bare result indicates, going smoothly but too far back and in sixth when blundering at the second last, almost unseating and eased off; he’d been tongue tied for his last 5 starts incidentally.
Joe Lively (10th) Is too high in the weights, his Cotwold success last year standing way above anything else he’d achieved, whilst it was disappointing to see him put in such a messy round of jumping here, given that’s usually his key asset.
State Of Play (PU) Has a good record when fresh, this first start since his Grand National fourth disappointing, albeit not persevered with for long.
#130
December 22nd, 2009 10:43
Can we have an update of our GN pre new year winning chart including my top six in my personal list (HB,AS,GTL,NM,PL,SOP)?
#131
December 22nd, 2009 12:00
Problem with Parsons Legacy is the same as it was bthis year – will need genuine good ground to win and we know that there is little chance of getting that come the National due to watering because of safety concerns.
Cracking work as always though Systemsman
#132
December 22nd, 2009 12:05
Fascinating 6 of my 11 selections ran in this years Hennessy – it was not planned that way its just what the points came too but this years Hennessy was very good was it not?
I dont see many new “stand outs” happening before the GN other (after the WN ofcourse)than the odd one or two and ofcourse confirmation of a few we all like.
Cant wait for weights day – I have a trick for that day to indentify/confirm likely winners.
There is no way I’am doing another “Rambo” (the term I will use from now on when we get fixated with just one runner)- this year it would probably be Niche Market who gave Denman a good run for his money and has won the IN, having said that there are holes in his profile (only won 2Chases not three so far) so we need a few against the field this year.
#133
December 22nd, 2009 12:16
Daniel re: Parsons Legacy.
Yes I shall wait on PL before betting as I think his price will hold up for a while/some time. Needs to get in on a very low weight and good ground (has won a G/S twice though so G/S going G might be OK but he would love genuine Good, G/F). If he lines up and its Good, Good/Firm he ceratinly worth a good bet in any short list. But as I said I will wait a while on this one.
Meets all the key stats and has an OR of just 139 with plenty of experiance having won a C1 (and 3rd in Scot Nat in ’07).
#134
December 22nd, 2009 12:23
Agreed – no more Rambos (I still get stick from that bet from friends & family!)
Although I would back a horse like him again because he did fit most of the stats very well and scored very highly
He didn’t have a proper ‘key race’ on his CV though
With hindsight he didn’t have the class
Perhaps with a horse such as Rambo that meets all the stats but seems to lack a touch of class – just have a smaller bet!
I really am going to wait (as long as I can!) before taking the plunge this year – hopefully up until race week if I have the patience
So far I have had a few quid at nice prices on Casey Jones and Cane Break
The other bets will be systems-based not hunches
#135
December 22nd, 2009 12:34
From RP:
WILLIE MULLINS has withdrawn all six of his runners from the Coral Welsh National at the latest forfeit stage on Tuesday morning, as33 horses stood their ground.
#136
December 22nd, 2009 12:42
33 left in Welsh (in market order from oddschecker)
Le Beau Bai
The Tother One
Halcon Genelardais
Flintoff
Companero
Silver By Nature
Gone To Lunch
Operation Houdini
Old Benny
Coe
Kornati Kid
Hello Bud
Dream Alliance
LAventure
Merigo
Nozic
Ballyfitz
Iris de Balme
Mon Mome
Turpin Green
Mr Strachan
Miko De Beauchene
Gentle Ranger
Kilbeggan Blade
Oscar Bay
Never So Blue
Oscar Park
Cornish Sett
Sound Accord
Rate Of Knots
Supreme Keano
Teeming Rain
Zacharova
#137
December 22nd, 2009 12:44
Thats AS off the pre new year list then
Needs to record a win over 24f LH now, maybe the willhill could be a possibility after JP had Wichita Lineman winning it last year
#138
December 22nd, 2009 13:40
Re: Welsh Nat
I have strange feeling one or two are entered not not win and hoping their OR will drop a point or two – and I hope GTL is one of them!!! (I woldnt run HB if i was the trainer – why risk a perfect OR of 142?).
I will stick with AS run or no run in the WN.
#139
December 22nd, 2009 17:42
I can’t quite see the fascination for Arbor Supreme. OK, he fits many of the basic stats but so do many others. He has won at 29f. and 30f. but no key race form, unless you count 3rd. in Thyestes, which No. 6 and Hedge Hunter both won. When he did step up in class over a distance, he was hammered in the Irish National by a 33/1 shot, he finished 14th, beaten 57 Lengths. If he had run in the Welsh National and finished in the top 3 then he would have been on my list.
#140
December 22nd, 2009 18:10
miinnehoma you make a fair point about AS – he does still need to prove himself in a key race and his runs before the GN will let us know one way or another. He just needs one more win at 24f or more for all the trends. I have a feeling the best is being saved for after the weights are out – it makes sence with a perfect OR of 142.
I don think this was so bad either (won “comfortably”):
25Apr08 Pun 30Gd HcCh 23K 9-10 1/24 5L, Black Apalachi[12/1]11-1
Each year we all have “one” we cant let go of (it was Southern Vic and Rambo for me last year – how wrong was I)so its AS for me in my portfolio so long as one of them wins I really dont mind.
#141
December 22nd, 2009 18:20
I think there will always be a bit of talk about AS, purely because of the connections and the fact that he may be compared to the likes of Hedgehunter with the races he’s taken part in. Not sure what went wrong in the IN but i guess he may have run into a bit of trouble?
He seems to already have a very interrupted season, they’ve tried to run him in the hennessy and now there is problems in the yard. If he were mine i would consider scrapping plans for the national this time and give him a solid campaign next time around (top 5 hennessy would do)
#142
December 22nd, 2009 20:25
Joe Lively added to BF – wonder if we’ll see any movement on him?
#143
December 23rd, 2009 00:07
At first glance Joe Lively is a Cheltenham specialist with Strong Gale influence – so not my idea of a GN winner – although his rating is very low compared witn his best – but I’d rather have up-and-coming Niche Market off 148 than JL off 149
#144
December 23rd, 2009 15:52
sent an e-mail earlier to Michael Hourigan – didnt get much of a response
Yes the plan for Church Island this year is the National.
Regards
Michael Hourigan
at least we know!!
#145
December 24th, 2009 20:49
Hi everyone, it’s been sometime since I added anything about possible Grand National runners. Well I’ve two more from the Stable of Noel Meade to add.
Casey Jones (we all seemed to like this one earlier, which is why I’am adding this file).
After his 4th place in the Champion Chase at Down Royal he went over to England for the Hennessy where we thought he would go well getting lots of weight from Denman, but he suffered badly from travel sickness and didn’t run. He only came back to me at the end of last week as it really upset him. We had to change his schedule and he should be back in February.
Casey Jones will be nine in the New Year.
The Second horse is Parsons Pistol (which a few liked on here).
He has developed into a proper staying chaser and he really pleased us when winning over 3 miles 7 furlongs at Fairyhouse on heavy ground last month. He is in great shape and the idea at the moment is to go for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday. Nonetheless, I think he will possibly run mainly in England after that as he needs extreme distances and there are more opportunities for a horse of his ability over there. I would also be thinking about the 4-miler at Cheltenham in March.
Parsons Pistol will be 8 in the New Year.
#146
December 24th, 2009 22:32
Hi All
Showlad here. As you know I lost my wonderful Dad of whom I used to come on this site on behalf of (as well as myself). Been missing in action as late summer my wonderful Mum passed away too. But am reporting back for action now – SIR!!
I will be commencing the TOP 6 TIPSTER COMPETITION I ran for the last National. 3 phases: 1 – up to and including 31 December to see how close we were before the year turned and assess our collective fancies. 2 – post Cheltenham and 3 – at final declaration stage.
Usual system 6 points for your top tip down to 1 point for horse you tip to come in 6th. You post up your top 6 and then amend and add in your scores to rolling league table for the fancied.
Anyone fine to kick off now, but I imagine, like me, you’ll be waiting to see the outcome of the Welsh National.
I’d like to wish all a very Merry Christmas and look forward to an amazing run up to the Grand National 2010: Systemsman, Stayer, Pablo, TC, KJ, Thai Mark, Wacky, Miinnehoma, Maureen, Crisp 73, Neil S, Silver Birch, Gammer – indeed ALL who contribute here.
Let’s hope we do better than last year guys – sorry to remind you all but Mon Mome DIDN’T GET A SINGLE POINT IN LAST YEAR’S FINAL TABLE – OOPS!!
#147
December 24th, 2009 23:15
Hi showlad, I have seen some of your old post in the Archive section and let me offer my sympathy for first your dad and then your mum, who made you the person you are today. Next I was just wondering ( I know there still the Welsh National to run) whose your main hopes are. Mine is Niche Market. Both on stats but more importantly from what I saw in the Hennessy. Like Systesman (I think thats Systemsman) said it was a very good race.
#148
December 25th, 2009 09:41
Welcome Back Showlad – very sorry also to hear about your mum. must be one of the toughest things in life to have to endure. my thoughts are with you as im sure most of the regular posters are as well . im sure your dads spirit lives on through this site and lets see if we can crack this before the 31st Dec:_) my top 6 list keeps getting altered but some of the key horses seem to remain in there no matter what . niche market ,gone to lunch, hello bud . as you say ill wait till after the welsh nat and then pin my colours to the mast ..dying to see how GTL and Dream Alliance run and maybe also Miko De Beauchene .. Have a great XMAS all . I need to go now before my girlfriend realises ive been loggin in on xmas day and gives me what for … ! have a great day everyone …
#149
December 25th, 2009 18:45
Thanks for your lovely comments guys. Reserving my first assessment until post Welsh GN. But I have to say Church Island for me very promising. Worry that Niche may be clobbered by handicapper.
I like Hello Bud, but unless it was deliberate to keep his OR down, I saw him live on the course at Becher, Aintree end Oct and he had NO finishing bite at all.
Enjoy Christmas!!
#150
December 25th, 2009 20:01
Thought Church Island ran a stinker when he came over to that new track, Ffro Las, but I think that every now and then a poor run can be forgiven.
#151
December 25th, 2009 22:45
Sorry to hear about your parents, Showlad. I lost a very dear internet friend this time last year, so we raised a glass to his memory today and shall do so every Christmas from now on. I do hope Dream Alliance runs a big race for sentimental reasons [the horses connections etc] but I’ve fancied Kornati Kid for ages. No particular reason, I’m afraid.
#152
December 26th, 2009 16:21
I guess anyone on Niche Market will have been heartened by Barbers shops run today in the King George . the hennessy form has been franked and will be interesting to see how What a friend gets on in the Lexus . if he runs well then it certainly makes Niche Market, Gone to Lunch and My Wills formlines that little bit stronger
#153
December 26th, 2009 16:42
Thought it would but there still 20/1 generally available. Gone to Lunch is a massive 40/1 with Bet 365 that go if he runs well in the Welsh National. A few seemed to have taken Gone to Lunch out of the betting (Boylesport, Betfred, Paddy Power & Ladbrokes) wonder if they know something.
#154
December 26th, 2009 18:01
If GTL is out of WN it only means they are very serious about the GN and are protecting his OR (149 near the top of a winnable OR in my humble opinion, even better if he could lose a point or two or three)which is exactly what i would do if the trainer or owner.
It certainly looks like we have some very serious contenders this year – a small group any of whom have the class to win (thank god we are not doing a Rambo again). In no order.
Hello Bud (I love this one)
Niche Market – real class
Arbor Supreme (needs another win at 28f)
My Will – another class horse
Gone To Lunch -in any short list
Church Island
Parsons Legacy – if he runs and good groud.
maybe one or two/three others
#155
December 26th, 2009 18:04
No what I meant was out of the betting for Aintree.
#156
December 26th, 2009 22:00
“Neil S says:
December 26, 2009 at 6:04 PM
No what I meant was out of the betting for Aintree”.
Probably reassesing prior to WN – thats all. Still quoted by most others – and they have my money on GTL too!!
#157
December 26th, 2009 22:15
I think GTL is a real threat to NM if he takes his chances, at the moment done 4 small bets on Champion Hurdle (Punjabi and Zaynar), Gold Cup (Kauto Star and Denman) and Niche Market in The Grand National. Nothing big just small each way trebles. Will be backing NM on its own just in case the other two are not won by my horses.
#158
December 27th, 2009 11:21
Neil S – Strangely, i have exactly the same bets on…. Hope great minds think alike.
#159
December 27th, 2009 17:45
Looking at the welsh national for possible candidates for the main event in april from a dosage angle and winning a class one race of 3 miles 1 furlongs i’ve drawn up a short list.
Halcon Genelardais
Nozic
Kornati Kid
Iris De Balme
Will be looking out for these to see if any finish in first three.
#160
December 27th, 2009 17:59
Can someone explain to me why this horse is the Fav for the GN? Its seems every year we have a false Fav or two. Only gave it 7/12points on major trends – fails on number of key points.
Tricky Trickster
On current form if(and its a big if)allowed to run of OR 148 Niche Market is a worthy Fav but not the best value (20/1 – best High St price).Hello Bud 33/1, Gone To Lunch 33/1, My Will 40/1, Arbor Supreme 33/1 and Church Island (gods know what price – no quote from High St bookies yet) all at good prices at this point in time.
Hello Bud – dont expect a 1/2/3 in WN tomorow – would you want to ruin a perfect OR of 142 for the GN? With regard to Gone To Lunch – again you dont want a 1/2 in fact a loss of a point or two of current OR 149 would do nicely. So these are two runners I would not back to win for very good reasons – they dont want to!!
#161
December 27th, 2009 18:17
Sam Twiston-Davies rides HB tomorrow taking 7 off, so i would expect a decent run from him again. He could gain another 3rd or 4th I think there are quite a few in the race that could become potential national horses. I’m a bit surprised AP isnt on GTL, maybe the national is a year to early for him
Th reason TT, is currently fave is because he won what, was a very strong 4 miler at Cheltenham. The horses who finished behind him have proven to be very decent. Really wished he stayed with NTD, andthey hadn’t “put all their eggs in one basket”. They should have looked at the hennessy and gone for the graded races. Do not fancy TT at all for the GN with such little experience. Has anyone got any news on him as he hasnt run yet this season
Wonder what Halcon Genelardais mark will be down to in february? Could be a national contender as i would think they will miss out the GC this time.
#162
December 27th, 2009 18:41
What do we all really feel re the perfect OR balancing act? How far do we think trainers will go with the GN OR in mind? With only ONE horse annually landing the lottery that is the GN crown – what are our thoughts on, for example, Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch in the Welsh Nat tomorrow – do we feel they would throw away the £57K winners fee just to protect their GN OR?
I’m interested to see our views on this. I feel the ‘throw away’ races are more likely to be on less grand affairs and if they don’t want to figure in tomorrow’s frame they will just not enter (as in Niche Market’s case). Thoughts please…
#163
December 27th, 2009 18:59
Systemsman the fact that the betting public are getting excited by Tricky Trickster and false fav in general helps push the value of the others. I don’t understand it myself, but if I’d done my homework and know its a poor fav then I exploit it.
TC Halcon has been a fancy of mine since Mon Mome, but I just don’t see him being risked on the national. Even if he was he’s right on my limit with an OR of 157 so on race day he’ll be burden with weight.
#164
December 27th, 2009 19:18
merry christmas everyone, wasn’t Kauto ‘the destroyer’ yesterday, just brilliant! never looked stronger.
Just one thing to add to that, as I was going to ages ago when this top tips thread started… ‘Ruby all the way!’
wonder if he’ll stick with My Will in the GN, the horse did not adapt his jumping and it was just Rubys skills that got the horse through the fences and into a place. COuld this horse adapt to it next time? What else could Ruby ride?
#165
December 27th, 2009 19:43
welcome back showlad, nice to see ya! and nice to see your dads big price winning horse Iris de Balme is back too
I also had a big win (GN Rambo recovery mission) with the horse everyone is talking about now,. Niche Market in the Irish Nat. phew! things are shaping up and its all getting a bit exciting, glad you’re back to enjoy the banter. Can’t wait for Chepstow tmw, shame L’Aventure didn’t get chance ey. Looks tight and haven’t picked one but Coe keeps popping into my brain, think he’s really developing.
#166
December 27th, 2009 21:44
Showlad: “what are our thoughts on, for example, Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch in the Welsh Nat tomorrow – do we feel they would throw away the £57K winners fee just to protect their GN OR?”
My views are clear – would you not throw almost any race away other than perhaps the Cheltenham Gold Cup to win the GN? I’am sure some owners would not only throw away any race but the wife and kids as well to win the GN!!!
HB or GTL coming 3rd would be OK but its a no no to 1st or 2nd in the WN – now lets see. I’am sure there are those that disagree but to win the GN you need to be very clever with OR etc and its a fine balancing act – losing a few points can be as important as gaining a few or none at all in certain races. I really dont think anything over OR 150 stands a chance (I’ve said it so I will stand by it right up to GN day).
#167
December 27th, 2009 23:50
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
My view on Hello Bud is he wouldn’t win the GN if he started next week but he has every chance of winning the WN on 10.01. His OR142 is low enough for the Grand National, any lower and he might not get in, so why run him, why put your son up – to make him look stupid or to get the 7 lbs of his back because you want to win.
OK, he dosen’t fit the stats but none of them really do except Gone To Lunch and we dont want him to win. Mind you GTL is not a definite runner for the GN and if he did win tomorrow it would hardly effect his weight for the Scottish National, since he had 11.10 last time.
#168
December 27th, 2009 23:56
Welsh National as a trial race for Aintree National.
Only Corbiere, Earth Summit and Silver Birch have gone on to win the Grand National in 30 years. This quote from my weekender can be explained because not many have gone on to run at aintree.
This quote is from my racing booklet on How To Win The Grand National. It’s a little bit out of date, but still considered to be good advice.
The stayers often progress from the Hennessy to the next big sponsored handicap at Chepstow – a race that has thrown up Gold Cup standard horses such as Burrough Hill Lad and Righthand Man. Corbiere just pipped Pilot Officer at Chepstow in the same season as his national victory. Rhyme ‘N’ Reason just failed to peg back Hennessy winner Playschool in 1987, but the was no Playschool to stop him winning the National that same season. Bonanza Boy has tried hard to carry too much weight in attempting the double in recent years, but Party Politics continued the trend in chasing home the enigmatic Carvill’s Hill in the 1991 renewal. Rag Trade completed a memorable double when defeating the great Red Rum in 1976. First and Second at Chepstow have won 25% of the last 16 nationals
That was a quote from my book which was purchase in the early 90′s 93-4. I reckon it’s still good. It was this advice which made me think Mon Mome could win, sadly it was the wrong year.
#169
December 28th, 2009 00:14
Really interesting feedback guys re GN OR balancing, thanks. Hey KJ great to hear from you. I think any trainer would throw ANY race to WIN the GN, but horse racing is A BUSINESS first and foremost. Most trainers are realistic to know that even with the perfect horse eg Clan Royal, you still need lots of luck in running to win the GN. This in the end leaves us with our answer – that it is up to the individual trainer. But I think there won’t be many who would pass up winning a £100k race to protect their GN OR for a CHANCE (it’s only a chance) of GN glory. Smaller races yes eg Comply Or Die’s last warm up.
Which makes me think Hello Bud, GTL etc may well be in the mix tomorrow – but it’s ALL dependent on the individual trainer’s instructions.
#170
December 28th, 2009 09:52
Gone To Lunch. I made a note after this year’s Scots Nat. (there is an entry on these pages somewhere) that connections said that a return to Ayr for Scots Nat. was more likely than a shot at the GN. Personally, I think they are out to win the Welsh Nat. come what may and are not to bothered whether this affects his OR in relation to GN.
TC, good news about Church Island. Well done with the email!
#171
December 28th, 2009 14:40
Well done to those who kept the faith with Dream Alliance as both first and second are given a 33/1 quote for the national.
Result (Winner) Dream Alliance 20/1
(second) Silver By Nature 14/1
(third) Le Beau Bai 4/1 fav
(fourth) Miko De Beauchene 33/1
#172
December 28th, 2009 15:20
Dream Alliance (OR 142 RPR 150 pre-welsh national) second in the 07 Hennessy, winner of the 09 Welsh National.
Silver By Nature (OR 136 RPR 142 pre-welsh national) only won a class 3 contest.
My conclusion is Dream Alliance is now (depending on his OR) a horse I have to include in my short list.
Silver By Nature lacks the class yet!
#173
December 28th, 2009 15:37
Admin
just been looking back thro the postings and noticed some requests for a stats only page, can I just add my name to those requesting this for the GN, you said you needed a few more interested in it and I think it makes real sense, although it means reposting by all kind stats and facts contributers, gotta be worth it
#174
December 28th, 2009 15:48
Nice to se my boys GTL and HB obeyed my instructions and did not win or placed!!
#175
December 28th, 2009 16:26
Great to see Dream Alliance win, but i think he’ll only have one more run before the national as they said he’s best fresh, which would mean a “no” on the stats. Silver by Nature ran well but will surely struggle with his jumping at Aintree
Coe, never really settled which was a bit disappointing, but i would think he is still a future national horse as soon as he sorts his jumping out fully. Just wondering with Halcon Genelardais only finishing 7th, if his rating will be dropped down nearer 150
I think the Hennessy has proven to be a very gruelling stamina test with both GTL and KK both PU, can’t help WaF chances in the Lexus
#176
December 28th, 2009 17:01
I think the national has become a lot clearer after today and is it now time to start the TOP 6 TIPSTER COMPETITION before the new year?
6. Church Island
5. Dream Alliance
4. Niche Market
3. Hello Bud
2. War of Attrition
1. Arbor Supreme
Church Island has become a very clear fancy of mine now after finding out he his heading for the national, i’m not convinced Niche Market will get the trip and i can’t see Gone To Lunch heading to Aintree, so i’ve left him out. Hopefully Dream Alliance has another 2 runs before the national but P. Hobbs left Parsons Legacy very fresh last year and i think the same will happen again
#177
December 28th, 2009 17:09
Well that was interesting today . Dream Alliance was already on my short list of 7. Im just gutted i didnt request an early price on betfair for him
.Anyway we must move on . We now have a horse who has been 2nd in a henessy and 1st in a welsh national . if he was running off 142 today – i reckon he could go up to something like 151 which would mean he would still only be carrying about eleven stone .. my only reservation is the same comment that TC made . I.E that Phillip Hobbs says this horse runs best fresh … maybe today was his cup final . i remember he ran a blinder in the henessy and was on my grand national short list before it all went pete tong after xmas . Will be xtremely interesting to see how he is campaigned in the run up to the nat . if they run him too much he could go over the top , if they only have one more run it might not be enough … what a dilemna.. still Ill be backing him with some of my pocket money …
Gone to Lunch and Kornati Kid pulled up . this race is becoming a graveyard for horses who previously ran in the hennessy . Gone to lunch this year ran the way dream alliance did 2 years ago ..a shocker… seems coming here after newbury is mission impossible albeit hedgehunter and bindaree and party politics ran well here after newbury but it looks like its very difficult to win ..
Im afraid im taking gone to lunch off my Aintree List ,that didnt look like Grand National winning form . certainly not this year anyway …
Dont forget Miko De Beauchene – he should drop a couple of pounds for that – hopefully down to about 147 which would give him a lovely racing weight – about 10-10
I didnt see what happened to Hello Bud – so ill reserve judgement on him for the time being
MY TOP 6 FOR YEAR END : In order of fanciability
NICHE MARKET
MY WILL
DREAM ALLIANCE
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
HELLO BUD
OVER THE CREEK
#178
December 28th, 2009 17:32
Has Dream Alliance (OR142) just blown his 2010 GN chance. It all depends on his new OR.
When Miko won by a head in ’07 he went up 9 lbs. and Halcon by 11 lbs. for his 4 lengths win in ’06. I wouldn’t like to see Dream Alliance get any more than 7 lbs. of a rise.
What happens now to GTL, will he drop a pound or two. It’s a pity about the doubt of him running in the GN. I thought after the Hennessy he might match the profile of Party Politics and Bindaree but PU in WN is no match.
#179
December 28th, 2009 17:34
Hello Bud was being ridden and going backwards when walloped into Houdini, who unfortunately didn’t do a disappearing act! hope Bud is ok. I still can’t have him for the GN. I was encorouged today by Ballyfitz and Miko, who I’d kinda crossed off before, my list is a classic dithering tradition of getting shorter then getting longer again. See WOA ran well again keeps him on my list of 6. Silver Birch, I see My Will is up on your list, is that assuming he’ll get the same help as last year from Ruby?
#180
December 28th, 2009 17:45
KJ – Yes – i certainly hope so – ive watched last years race about 5 times now and here’s my thought on him . On the whole his jumping was adequate apart from whacking the foinavon and I believe the canal turn 2nd time round . Ruby is the master at nursing horses around this track and im hoping that If he runs Ruby will be on board. I think the most interesting part of My Wills run cenTred around what went on as he came into the home straight . I still believe turning for home nothing was going better . Therefore he either (1) didnt quite fully stay the trip at the pace required (2) blew up because hed only had the 2 runs and still wasnt fully fit (3) hit the front too soon and started wandering around aimlessly in front . im banking on it being the latter and that hopefully Ruby can produce him right at the last minute – last year he was carrying 11-4 – im hoping he can get in under the 11 stone barrier this time around . however its a very open year and theres a case could be made for so many..
#181
December 28th, 2009 18:03
Difficult to asses the WN. Dream Allance clearly has to be considered but he had some shocking results after the Henessey in ‘O7 PU,UR,PU,PU!! He could be another Rambo and has peaked with this win. His new OR will be all important for me but I will probably have a cover bet whatever.
TC: “Great to see Dream Alliance win, but i think he’ll only have one more run before the national as they said he’s best fresh, which would mean a “no” on the stats.”
Which stat are you refering to TC? – DA did have a run over Hurdles in Nov ’09 and came 2nd in a C3.
The Hennessy clearly takes a lot out of any runner and this year was a top trial for the GN so not too worried about GTL (if he runs that is). Likewise HB has a nice prep race but pity he UR but can come back from that.
#182
December 28th, 2009 18:10
Systems – i was referring to the 4-6 season runs? Is that right? i think he will only have one more run before the national giving him 3.
It does look like the Hennessy may well have taken a lot out of all the horses. Barbers Shop although ran well in the KG, faded quite badly in the end. It will be interesting to see Niche Market’s next run – but they aren’t good signs
#183
December 28th, 2009 18:16
We wont have long to wait TC – tomorrow if Newburys on . hes up against mostly horses with the same OR so if he gets beat he should be able to keep his OR intact. however if he wins then he may blow all hopes of grand national glory….!
#184
December 28th, 2009 18:29
One remaining point on Dream Alliance – his form on soft or heavy is excellent
His form on soft or heavy
1,1,2,4,1,2,P,2,1 – Quite amazing – only blip the welsh national right after the hennessy
His form on good ground
4,2,6,3,6,P,P
Ive noticed in these races on good ground that they are almost going a stride too fast for him causing him to make mistakes and become unsettled .
Anyone dabbling for the nat will hope the heavens open for this one …
Still a very interesting character
#185
December 28th, 2009 19:58
Wow,that’s some studing Silver, knew I was amongst intellectuals with this site. Take my hat off to you for those stats on Dream Alliance and his form on Soft or Heavy going.
Right Showlad to the main point in hand and my list (feels like eurovision to me a bit) after thinking through the list and studing the past results I able to give you my pre new year list. Whether they run or not.
One point (un point) goes to My Will he ran well in last years national and his mark is back to a winning mark again.
Two points (deux points) goes to Hello Bud, he likes the course and jumps the fences well. He stays four miles (scottish National) needs decent ground or just holding up a bit to score on the big day.
Three points (trois points) goes to Black Apalachi, he also like the course. Travelling well when coming down I think he deserves another chance (at this moment).
Four points (quatre points) goes to Gone To Lunch, not entirely sure he’s heading to Aintree but if he was then he’ll have a massive chance.
Five points (cinq points) goes to todays winner Dream Alliance the welsh National as to be respected and I almost sure he’ll make my final list if his OR fits.
Lastly six points (six points) goes to Niche Market, still number one as far as I’am concerned. OR at the moment looks good, won the Irish National, third to a monster like Denman in the Hennessy and his dosage fits.
That concludes my list for the Grand National, thank you showlad.
#186
December 28th, 2009 20:48
Updeated table after, Silver Birch, Neil S and my selections
16. Niche Market
14. Dream Alliance
7. Hello Bud
6. My Will
6. Church Island
4. Gone To Lunch
3. Miko De Beauchene
3. Black Apalachi
2. War of Attrition
1. Arbor Supreme
1. Over the Creek
#187
December 28th, 2009 22:12
Looks like Niche Market and Dream Alliance are breaking away after three results. Wonder if they will be caught or stretch their lead even further. More importantly will one win on the big day, time will tell.
#188
December 29th, 2009 00:14
Potentially interested in Oscar Time for 2011
Have no idea for 2010
But for now (subject to change tomorrow):
6. Black Apalachi
5. Snowy Morning
4. Niche Market
3. Possol
2. Cane Brake
1. Gone To Lunch
#189
December 29th, 2009 00:23
Actually COD should be in there too – need to wait for weights I think
Think experience might count this year
#190
December 29th, 2009 00:50
Dream Alliance was bred in GB and they have a worse record than French Breds in the GN if my memory serves me right.
#191
December 29th, 2009 00:52
recent record that is.
#192
December 29th, 2009 01:12
I’m interested in Possol, but he’s only 7 for 2010. Interested to see Big Fella Thanks (8yr old) back out tmw, made a good show last year, is he still too young?
Going to hold back my pre new year list til he and NM run, although I don’t think it will change things. COD will be in the mix for me too Pablo.
#193
December 29th, 2009 11:34
Doing some more in depth research before posting my top six in the next day or so. Making sure i study all the 1/2/3 of the key races in depth – i dont want to miss another Mon Mome.
When will the new OR and RPR for Dream Alliance come out? He’s on my list if he is OR 150 or less.
#194
December 29th, 2009 14:39
Kj, stats are there to be broken, look at last year ! They are only a guide to help narrow the field, if you fancy something go with it. Money Trix looked a real stayer in the Lexus and is probably the one to take out of that if it were to be declared for the National.
#195
December 29th, 2009 15:09
I see What a friend won the Lexus in Ireland, together with Barbers Shop in the King George holds up the form of the Hennessy and has to be good for Niche Market. I also think the Paul Nicholls pair are to battle out the finish of the Gold Cup again. Cooldine needs to improve quickly
#196
December 29th, 2009 16:23
Silver Birch – interesting to see that you have Over the Creek in your list. I was a big fan of the horse and was gutted a couple of years ago when he was taken out of the GN late on.
However, I’m not sure I could fancy him much now. Is obviously very injury prone and showed nothing on his comeback hurdles run. I see he is entered in a race next week. However, I’m not sure I can see Pipe risking such an injury prone animal in the National?
Would love to be proved wrong though!!
#197
December 29th, 2009 17:13
Hi speedy – yes ur right -its a high risk selection . i think ur right – hes got glass legs but ill be honest and say its amazing how many animals come back from supposedly serious injury or time off on the recuperating table only to triumph at aintree
In recent years weve had . comply or die , silver birch ,earth summit , royal athlete, red marauder, they all came back from time out and the key is because they had time out they were on lenient marks and were able to capitalise on it … I reckon times running out however and he needs to show more in this next hurdle race and then he needs to run well in a chase race quickly to get his OR mark up to nearly 140 to ensure he has a chance of getting in … its all if buts and maybes but im not prepared to give up on him yet . any beast that places in the welsh national warrants the utmost respect and david pipe did say in his stable tour that this was his dark horse for the national . next 4 weeks are vital for this boy but i wouldnt be surprised if he bounces back to form on his third run…
#198
December 29th, 2009 17:19
Just finished work – ..hmm.. an interesting days developments . What a Friend wins the Lexus – how hot is that Henessy form now ..! Niche Market finishes 5th – a little part of me is disappointed , a bigger part of me says whoopee .surely his OR cant go up after that ?. if he stays the same or drops a few pounds hes in the perfect place…all heating up very nicely .. its entirely understandable now why Dream Alliance and Niche Market are currently top of the pops , but as system man says lets not get complacent and keep our minds open to make sure we dont have a rambo charge . still cases can be made for quite a few horses here and im sure there will be some further twists in the plot…..!
#199
December 29th, 2009 17:40
Did Pipe say this on a recent stable tour? if so, that gives me more hope!
This may be controversial, but I don’t think Dream Alliance will stay the National trip
#200
December 29th, 2009 18:19
Speedy .. it was on the racing post stable tour about 6 weeks back .. albeit there been a lot of water under the bridge since then .. if i find any further updates ill let u know
#201
December 29th, 2009 18:32
Thanks TC for getting the ball rolling on my TOP 6 TIPSTERS competition
I will be running the competition in 4 stages this year (one more stage added). The stages will be timed at: up to and including 31 December; the second in the final week of Feb; the third in the week following Cheltenham and the final at the 7 day dec stage.
The whole point is to gather our collective thoughts on our tips and then see this progress right up to the final table at the 7 day dec stage. Again I will show previous stages placings in each new table, so we can see a horse rise or decline in popularity. This first table is to really see where we are vaguely at in a general consencus as we turn into 2010. Remember to keep adding your scores and amend overall tabel.
OK at this VERY early stage here are my top 6:
HELLO BUD 6 POINTS
CHURCH ISLAND 5 POINTS
NICHE MARKET 4 POINTS
COMPLY OR DIE 3 POINTS
STATE OF PLAY 2 POINTS
DREAM ALLIANCE 1 POINT
OVERALL LEAGUE TABLE:
NICHE MARKET 24
DREAM ALLIANCE 15
HELLO BUD 13
CHURCH ISLAND 11
BLACK APALACHI 9
MY WILL 6
GONE TO LUNCH 5
SNOWY MORNING 5
COMPLY OR DIE 3
MIKO DE BEACHEUNE 3
POSSOL 3
WAR OF ATTRITION 2
CANE BRAKE 2
STAE OF PLAY 2
ARBOR SUPREME 1
OVER THE CREEK 1
C’mon guys..get voting!!
#202
December 29th, 2009 18:32
Thanks TC for getting the ball rolling on my TOP 6 TIPSTERS competition
I will be running the competition in 4 stages this year (one more stage added). The stages will be timed at: up to and including 31 December; the second in the final week of Feb; the third in the week following Cheltenham and the final at the 7 day dec stage.
The whole point is to gather our collective thoughts on our tips and then see this progress right up to the final table at the 7 day dec stage. Again I will show previous stages placings in each new table, so we can see a horse rise or decline in popularity. This first table is to really see where we are vaguely at in a general consencus as we turn into 2010. Remember to keep adding your scores and amend overall tabel.
OK at this VERY early stage here are my top 6:
HELLO BUD 6 POINTS
CHURCH ISLAND 5 POINTS
NICHE MARKET 4 POINTS
COMPLY OR DIE 3 POINTS
STATE OF PLAY 2 POINTS
DREAM ALLIANCE 1 POINT
OVERALL LEAGUE TABLE:
NICHE MARKET 24
DREAM ALLIANCE 15
HELLO BUD 13
CHURCH ISLAND 11
BLACK APALACHI 9
MY WILL 6
GONE TO LUNCH 5
SNOWY MORNING 5
COMPLY OR DIE 3
MIKO DE BEACHEUNE 3
POSSOL 3
WAR OF ATTRITION 2
CANE BRAKE 2
STAE OF PLAY 2
ARBOR SUPREME 1
OVER THE CREEK 1
C’mon guys..get voting!!
#203
December 29th, 2009 19:38
6.Trabolgan
5.Parsons legacy
4.Gone To Lunch
3.Dream Alliance
2.Snowy Morning
1.Character Building
League Table
24.Niche Market
18.Dream Alliance
13.Hello Bud
11.Church Island
9. Blach Apalachi
9. Gone To Lunch
7. Snowy Morning
6. My Will
6. Trabolgan
5. Parsons Legacy
3. Comply Or Die
3. Miko De Beauchene
3. Possol
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
1. Arbor Supreme
1. Over The Creek
1. Character Building
#204
December 29th, 2009 20:06
please someone oblige,dont know how to update list.
6 hello bud
5 big fella thanks
4 character building
3 arbor supreme
2 niche market
1 mr pointment
thanks.
#205
December 29th, 2009 20:16
Afetr Mandie (sounds like a Barry Manilow song lol):
26.Niche Market
18.Dream Alliance
19.Hello Bud
11.Church Island
9. Blach Apalachi
9. Gone To Lunch
7. Snowy Morning
6. My Will
6. Trabolgan
5. Big Fella Thanks
5. Parsons Legacy
5. Character Building
4. Arbor Supreme
3. Comply Or Die
3. Miko De Beauchene
3. Possol
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
1. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
#206
December 29th, 2009 20:20
cheers show waddy waddy, i’ve only just learned the art of texting.
#207
December 29th, 2009 20:27
Your welcome Mandie. Lots of fresh blood on table so far.. How fitting that our Irish, Welsh and Scottish National winners fill the Top 3 slots, with the frame of 4 finished off by the Irish National runner-up.
As discussed previously, keeping a perfect OR for the Grand National at the expense of winning other races, really is the individual trainers choice. But, as when I saw him in the Becher a few weeks ago, I think Hello Bud is one such horse who is keeping that OR sweet for the Big Day.
#208
December 29th, 2009 20:38
could not agree more showlad,but i have been trying to find out if there was any problems after being brought down sunday.nothing reported as yet so hope and presume everything ok.hope so already backed e/w at 50′s with 365.
#209
December 29th, 2009 20:41
Welcome back Showlad!
Interesting thing about the latest list is that if, as I do, you include top 3 in the Racing Post Chase, top 4 in GN and top 5 in Gold Cup (plus top 3 in Irish, Welsh, Scottish plus top 2 in Topham and Becher, plus top 5 in Hennessy) as “key race” performances, the only horse NOT to have a key race place (or win) is Arbor Supreme
This is definitely a better list than last year (Rambo, Kilbeggan Blade, Darkness etc) – a really great race to savour in prospect – bring on Aintree (the best 3 days racing in the whole year)!!
But it is still a long list!
Happy New Year to all punters and posters and like Systemsman says we have to get the winner this year.
No pressure – bring it on…
#210
December 29th, 2009 20:55
Hey Mandie, Hello Bud unseated rider yest, didn’t fall and had the look to me, prior to that, of a good stretch was the aim rather than to win.
Pablo Hi! Yes list does have a ‘earned GN prep race credentials’ to it – a much deeper, traditional quality than last years. Mon Mome had so much going for him last year, and the fact that he DIDN’T SCORE 1 POINT on last years table hopefully has knocked all complacency out of us – we can agree to differ on our choices – but all those gaining placings in the relevant prep races should all FIND THEIR WAY ONTO THIS YEARS TABLE.
#211
December 29th, 2009 21:12
I’ve probably stated this before but only something like 37% of runners have finished the National since 1990
Therefore from a stats viewpoint I would urge anyone to bet on (at least) 3 horses in the race
It is a lottery to a point – a horse can be brought down or hampered (Mon Mome was hampered at least twice taking the “brave man’s route” in 2008) – but by backing 3 you significantly increase your chances of at least one of your fancies finishing
Clearly the staking plan is up to you and the more horses that you back the less profit will ensue
Also for horses that you think will probably place but might not win (COD perhaps) – why not have a bigger bet on Betfair or the Tote to place nearer the race and a smaller bet to win?
An equal win/place bet at say £5 e/w should only be placed if you think the horse can win – otherwise why not go £2 win 8 place (you’d kick yourself if the horse wins but get more back for the more realistic option)?
Or vice-versa – £8 win £2 place if the odds are generous (say 25/1 or bigger) and the place bet then becomes a saver (but makes a profit)
Simple adjustments to staking plans do reap benefits over the long term – too often the win part is lost money – especially when taking on an odds-on favourite
#212
December 29th, 2009 21:17
showlad,
as i was at work yesterday i did not manage to catch the race,but according to sporting life site and odds checker site they state hello bud was actually brought down 4 out by operation houdini i beleive.does not really matter as i too think it was just a leg stretcher with no real winning expectations in those conditions and the precious OR in mind.
#213
December 29th, 2009 21:22
Mandie/Showlad
Agreed – the thing I like about NTD is that he runs his horses throughout the season
Hello Bud is an older horse and needs several runs throughout the year (as has been discussed before 4/5 runs + is ideal for these older types)
If NTD is in good form around Aintree (as he often is) Hello Bud will go back on my radar
#214
December 29th, 2009 22:11
These days I usually have five or six horses all ante post and all staked to win me X amount of pounds. Some don’t make the race but I know if one wins then I gained a profit.
Did have one horse when I started backing the national (in 1977) when my dad placed the bet on. He had two horses (one being Andy Pandy, who fell at becher’s second time) and I had red rum.
Being a kid I just seemed to be attracted to its name.
I might be wrong here but nothing seems to be putting me off Niche Market.
Would have had last years winner but I over stretched myself with a silly bet on Denman. Not doing anything like that again.
#215
December 29th, 2009 22:42
Neil – I agree that Niche Market looks the likeliest winner based on this season’s form and it will ride good/good to soft in all probability
Black Apalachi is my number one based on his form in Ireland, his Becher win and the way he ran in last year’s GN – was leading them a merry dance until he fell – plus he is better than Vic Venturi who has done well recently. Obvious downside is that he hasn’t run yet.
Also think that Snowy Morning ran a great race in the Hennessy (he’s better in the Spring) and might be a nice price if another of the Mullins horses (Arbor Supreme?) is better backed. He’s entered on NY’s Day over 2m 5f at Tramore.
Haven’t had a proper bet yet and will keep powder dry until as late as possible – went almost all in on Rambo too soon last year
Like you say Neil once you’ve had a few bets it can cloud your judgement because your book is too full
I still believe that there is value to be had on the day
#216
December 29th, 2009 23:00
What I try to do in the past (not with any great success I might add) is back ante post to cover all types of going. Its early days and the list might change but on heavy or soft its got to be Dream Alliance. On yielding or good ground its got to be Niche Market. On good to firm or firm its got to be Hello Bud or Mr Pointment if he entered.
#217
December 29th, 2009 23:06
RE: number of GN bets.
I normely have 4 good anti post bets at 100% to would pay for bloody good foreign holiday for me and the wife and at least 2 more anti post bets that would pay for a good holiday in the UK. That way if I win we all have some fun and something to remember. I see it as a winter savings plan (and this year all paid for by the winnings on the Eurovision Song Contest which was saved for this purpose – so no cost to me, it was my recocery bet from losing on the GN 2009)
My first 4 big bets are on but not all to 100% yet. I am happy to take the risk that one /two of these early bets but dont run but dont place the bet unless 3 from 4 of the top High Stree bookies give a quote (WH, Cor, Lad, Tote).
This year I want that ho in the sun and a new wide screen TV so lets go for it people – bring it on!
#218
December 29th, 2009 23:28
Agree – 3/4/5 bets to win is the way forward
So much effort needs to be rewarded – each way can mean profit but as far as the GN is concerned win only rules
I’d rather make a bumper profit one year than a small one every year
We can do it!
#219
December 29th, 2009 23:37
Did get carried away a little with Rambo last year. With AP bets though, i tend to back a horse based on trends, dosage figures and whether i know for sure that it’s the intended race.
The GN should be perfect for a punter as you know which horses are being targeted at the race from an early stage in the season and which horses are there, just because its a day out for the owners who have a horse in a major race which tends to happen in the bigger races
As far as current bets for the national goes, Niche Market, Church Island and Hello Bud look ideal AP bets, as we know they are heading for Aintree, hit all the trends and can be layed on the day as the price will be much shorter
#220
December 30th, 2009 00:43
I’m not going to post a top 6 at this stage as haven’t looked at it enough yet. However, does anyone have any opinion on the following:
Siegemaster
Merigo
Casey Jones
I’m a big Casey Jones fan but is a quirky character and no-one here has ranked him at all
#221
December 30th, 2009 07:24
We did earlier but my post on trainer comments further up said he got travel sickness and is out to Feb.
#222
December 30th, 2009 08:36
I have a question TC – you sent an e-mail to Michael Hourigan and he said “Yes the plan for Church Island this year is the National”.
The horse still isn’t quoted by most main stream bookies. Did you specifically mention the Grand National as of course last year he went to Fairyhouse. Thanks.
#223
December 30th, 2009 09:07
I’d like to put forward my current top 6 even though OR revisions may change things. There’s very little to split the top 4.
Church Island 6 points
Niche Market 5 points
Gone To Lunch 4 points
Mico De Beauchene 3 points
Dream Alliance 2 points
My Will 1 point
And the revised table.
31.Niche Market
20.Dream Alliance
19.Hello Bud
17.Church Island
13. Gone To Lunch
9. Blach Apalachi
7. Snowy Morning
7. My Will
6. Mico De Beauchene
6. Trabolgan
5. Big Fella Thanks
5. Parsons Legacy
5. Character Building
4. Arbor Supreme
3. Comply Or Die
3. Possol
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
1. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
Happy New Year to all here.
#224
December 30th, 2009 09:12
Thaimark – it wasnt too much of a response but, i said the Aintree grand national
#225
December 30th, 2009 11:36
Morning troops!! Yes agree with Pablo, for me, win only is preferred bet method. My recent wins would have been much diminished if split over an EW strategy (though at NRNB stage I will have a place only on a few I feel superb chance to be in frame). I tend to take a strong backing over my top 4 – 6 ante-post and also take odds on horses who maybe aren’t in my top list, but on whom I will lay off odds nearer time so my remaining bet is then free. Main change for me this year is I WON’T BE THROWING IN ALL OF THE KITCHEN SINK ON A HORSE THAT HASN’T EARNED IT’S PLACE BY WINNING/BEING PLACED IN OUR AGREED CLASSIC LIST (morning Rambo lol). I’m also not going the other short sighted way – if they did enter him next year again I for one would be happy to place a couple of squid on silly odds (eg just now 200/1).
Hi Speedyseagull – the current table’s purpose is mainly to get a general consencus of the fancied, not your absolute final 6 – there are 4 stages to the table and your final vote isn’t ’til 7 day dec stage – that’s the final vote that will count. Post the current table, we have the various important and crucial stages: entries to be declared, the weights, then Chelts, then the last min withdrawals which leaves us at the 7 day dec stage. Be nice to see your vague thoughts just now, so do post up your current Top 6 for us all Speedy.
#226
December 30th, 2009 11:46
ADMIN: Could you please post up a ‘GN entrants running this week’ thread, so we can all keep a breast when our fancies are out racing (and be ready to back or lay those odds). Each week we can post up when various GN entrants are running and where. Thanks
#227
December 30th, 2009 12:32
Showlad
http://www.irishracing.com/v5tracker
is a free service that informs you by email when a horse is declared to run in UK or Ireland
It lets you enter up to 150 horses I think – just need to register and enter the horses that are of interest
#228
December 30th, 2009 12:47
Thanks Pablo – what a great service!
#229
December 30th, 2009 16:26
Tell me what are peoples thoughts on Big Fella Thanks.
I didn’t see his first run yesterday, which described him finishing tired.
Although still on young side, he is quite interesting after his effort last year is he not?
8 chases, just short of 9 required, but all around 24f of which 3 were wins +
no 29f win -
RPR ? please enlighten me & remind me of that RPR/OR stat.
OR 150
*please can a few more people ask for a special stats only page, we need a few more votes admin said*
40% strike rate 1,2,or 3rd +
3rd in Racing Post Chase last year behind Nacarat and Possol, is that a key race? its a C1.
#230
December 30th, 2009 17:03
6 Church Island
5 Dream Alliance
4 Trabolgan
3 Gone To Lunch
2 Snowy Morning
1 Possol
update
31.Niche Market
25.Dream Alliance
23.Church Island
19.Hello Bud
16.Gone To Lunch
10. Trabolgan
9. Black Apalachi
9. Snowy Morning
7. My Will
6. Mico De Beauchene
5. Big Fella Thanks
5. Parsons Legacy
5. Character Building
4. Arbor Supreme
4. Possol
3. Comply Or Die
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
1. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
#231
December 30th, 2009 17:10
A sole stats page for the GN is a great idea!
#232
December 30th, 2009 17:25
Crisp – Out of Interest, why haven’t you included Niche Market in your top 6. Would love to hear your views. Personally i’m not convinced he’ll get the national trip.
#233
December 30th, 2009 17:41
Niche won Irish GN over 29f and placed at Chelt over 32f what makes you think he won’t get trip TC?
#234
December 30th, 2009 18:12
Hello id like to see a stats page as well…think it would be handy to recheck selections and a good tool as a sanity check on the actual big day itself ..
#235
December 30th, 2009 18:28
Showlad – Its the record of Presenting horses in longer distance races. Their best seems to be around 21f-27f on GS ground. You could argue there havent been too many entered in nationals, but there must be a reason for that.
How strong a renewal was that 4-miler at Cheltenham in comparison to this years’. Stamina should surely have played into Niche Market’s favour yesterday. i’m personally not covinced they would want much more than 27f. The Irish national was on better ground, but over 7f further, i would have taken Church Island to have beaten him
#236
December 30th, 2009 18:41
Funny how we all interpret differently. Church hasn’t actually won over 25f before and it seemed fairly easy for Niche to reel him in that day in the Irish GN.
#237
December 30th, 2009 18:53
Yeah, he won the Irish national well, but on slightly softer ground, i dont think it will be as easy. If the ground is Gd at Aintree in April then i think he should be the one to beat
Church Island hasnt won over 25f, but the 2 runs in the Irish nat, and the betfred suggested that he definitely wants even further.
Have to say the list looks just a little stronger than the final list last year!! The top 5 all finished 1st or 2nd in a national
#238
December 30th, 2009 19:21
Very, very difficult at tis atge to seperate the top 8 or so I cna find a afult with almost all of them.
But hre goes:
6 Church Island
5 Hello Bud
4 Niche Market (only 2 chase wins)
3 Dream Alliance (if OR150 or less)
2 Arbor Supreme (needs another win at 28F but hopeful, and could become nO1))
1 Parsons Legacy
Others not counted:
Gone To Lunch(needs a 1/2/3 this season)
My Will (what OR will he be assessed at for GN?)
Update:
35.Niche Market
28.Dream Alliance
29.Church Island
24.Hello Bud
16.Gone To Lunch
10. Trabolgan
9. Black Apalachi
9. Snowy Morning
7. My Will
6. Mico De Beauchene
6. Parsons Legacy
6. Arbor Supreme
5. Big Fella Thanks
5. Character Building
4. Possol
3. Comply Or Die
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
1. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
#239
December 30th, 2009 19:26
Revised as Crisp got in fisrt – this is now correct:
6 Church Island
5 Hello Bud
4 Niche Market (only 2 chase wins)
3 Dream Alliance (if OR150 or less)
2 Arbor Supreme (needs another win at 28F but hopeful, and could become nO1))
1 Parsons Legacy
Others not counted:
Gone To Lunch(needs a 1/2/3 this season)
My Will (what OR will he be assessed at for GN?)
update
35.Niche Market
29.Church Island
28.Dream Alliance
24.Hello Bud
16.Gone To Lunch
10. Trabolgan
9. Black Apalachi
9. Snowy Morning
7. My Will
6. Mico De Beauchene
6. Parsons Legacy
6. Arbor Supreme
5. Big Fella Thanks
5. Character Building
4. Possol
3. Comply Or Die
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
1. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
#240
December 30th, 2009 19:47
Church Island looks like he may be one of my top 3 on trends by race day – he does look good on paper
The ones I chose for my list were ones that I thought could win – so CI was not on that list
I think Church Island is honest but he will be 11 and has only won one race since 2006 – a class 2 Veterans’ chase – so he has gone up in the ratings without winning – I’ll defer to Crisp on this one but that does not look like the way to get well-handicapped for the National
Also he tends to get his best RPRs when allowed to run from the front
I don’t think that he will be able to live with the pace that Black Apalachi will set – very few could last year and the pace of the race seemed to slow once BA departed last year (a welcome breather after the 2 false starts and perhaps why a dozen or so horses were grouped so closely coming to 2 out with MM winning the sprint to the line)
If CI isn’t allowed to dominate he invariably runs badly
So while I respect him – and will back him if he’s in my top 3 by race week – I can see at least one younger or better-rated horse being too classy for him – he invariably loses out to at least one younger, more progressive rival
Think it’s important to discuss the shortcomings of each horse – we don’t want another Rambo (bless him)
#241
December 30th, 2009 20:38
Apologies for veering off the subject but this is a heart warming new years story!!
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/12/30/vets-said-an-operation-would-cost-a-lot-and-grand-national-winner-would-probably-not-race-again-91466-25491995/
#242
December 30th, 2009 21:10
Thanks for that link Matriarch, did read something similar in the papers (racing pages) the express, but I think every paper also ran it.
A fairytale national just like Aldanti got to keep that in mind.
Got some more trainers comments this time the spotlight on Sue Smith.
Coe (age 8 in the new year).
A lovely staying chaser owned by Trevor Hemmings. He has always looked a proper chaser and last year he started to fulfil that potential with victory in the Tim Moloney Handicap Chase at Haydock. That was over 3 miles 4 furlongs which is ideal for him.
He has had a couple of good runs this season at Haydock and Newcastle, finishing second on each occasion, before running in the Welsh National on Monday. He made most of the running until turning for home when he looked like being swamped, but he stayed on really well to finish sixth. I don’t tend to look too far down the road, but he currently has a rating of 139 which would be worth considering for the Grand National in April. If we decide to go down that route I wouldn’t envisage too many other races before Aintree as Chepstow was pretty arduous.
Another Grand National star of Sue is Himalayan Trail who would be 11 at the weekend.
A real star for us when winning the 2008 Midlands National. He then left us and went to Ireland before being brought back to us by Mark Gittings. He ran a nice race last month when third to Huka Lodge over 3 miles i furlong. He has come on for that and the big target will be Uttoxeter again in the spring. He has improved steadily this season and I hope to run him in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen, but the weather claimed that, so again we are just waiting for the weather to provide us with an opening.
#243
December 30th, 2009 21:21
Pablo, you took the words out of my mouth – re Church Island. But he’s a good AP bet at a big price and should give you a good run for your money.
Pablo, Pablo, Black Apalachi are you sure. After all the stats crisp ’73 has given us, no prep runs and high OR155. Is this a Ben Hutton thing or are you keeping your best horse close to your chest.
#244
December 30th, 2009 21:22
hi all, my dad always said only back a 9 or in exceptional cases a 10 year old in the national. I have found over the years that, on the whole, this has been profitable advice and remains my strongest trend. Would it be possible to put the age of the horse when making the selection lists. I agree with previous contributers who suggest that we were fixated on one horse last year and i was swayed, (my dad is still rolling!)Anyway, thankyou for a brilliant site and i look forward to GN10 when a 9yo will win, ( i just dont know which one yet!. Happy new year and happy hunting.
#245
December 30th, 2009 21:36
Dave on the subject of age the booklet I bought on How To Win The Grand National has this to say about age stat. Eight to twelve years olds are within the stats, but take heart if your selection is a nine year old.
#246
December 30th, 2009 21:45
Right, here is my list and updated table
6. Siegemaster
5. Gone to Lunch
4. Casey Jones
3. Backstage
2. Jass
1. Over the Creek
35.Niche Market
29.Church Island
28.Dream Alliance
24.Hello Bud
21.Gone To Lunch
10. Trabolgan
9. Black Apalachi
9. Snowy Morning
7. My Will
6. Siegemaster
6. Mico De Beauchene
6. Parsons Legacy
6. Arbor Supreme
5. Big Fella Thanks
5. Character Building
4. Possol
4. Casey Jones
3. Comply Or Die
3. Backstage
2. War Of Attrition
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
2. Jass
2. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
#247
December 30th, 2009 21:58
Speedy I see you’re keeping faith with Casey Jones, after my report. If he runs he’ll have to be sent early. He was meant to run in the Hennessy but got pulled out due to travel sickness and is off until Feb.
#248
December 30th, 2009 22:14
Hi Neil
Yep, saw your report – thanks for that, hadn’t heard it before.
If the trainer fancies him, i’m sure he’ll find a way to send him. After all, he sent him over for Cheltenham and he ran well, finishing like a train
#249
December 30th, 2009 22:29
Miinnehoma
Agree Black Apalachi doesn’t have the stats as at 31st December:
NO – 16/16 GN winners had a 45% win/ place s/r or more on this date in there GN winning season
YES – 16/16 had ran in at least 7 chases
YES – 16/16 had won 1 of their last 10 chases
YES – 16/16 had won/placed in C1 chase 20f or more
YES – 15/16 had won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more
(Lord Gyllene didn’t)
YES – 15/16 had won chase at 24f or more
(Red Marauder hadn’t and never did)
YES – 14/16 had won 3 chases or more
(Lord Gyllene, Hedgehunter hadn’t)
NO – 14/16 had ran at least two prep runs
(Miinnehoma/Royal Athlete came back from lengthy absences in the New Year)
YES – Key race = Becher win
YES – RPR-OR = +9
YES – RPR = 164
YES – Topspeed = 138
YES – Won over GN fences (bonus)
YES – Breeding; half-brother to COD
Ticks almost all boxes apart from strike rate and # runs
Since GN 2008, BA has:
5 L 2nd to Arbor Supreme giving over a stone on faster ground than ideal
PU in Cork National after a break
74 L victory in Becher Chase (albeit in heavy ground)
13 L 5th over hurdles
17 L victory in Bobbyjo Chase
UR in GN 2009 having led going well
2 falls in GN is offputting but over the past 18 months or so when he gets it right he is very good and looks to be improving if anything – I was really impressed with him until he unshipped O’Regan at 2nd Becher’s
RPRs in completed chases 147 (Punchestown), 158 (Aintree), 164 (Fairyhouse)
I am disappointed that he hasn’t been out yet but if he’s fit and well he has every chance on his best form if Mon Mome is off 161
But will wait until race week to place my bets – too much can happen between now and then
#250
December 30th, 2009 22:36
I saw the Ben Hutton thing on RPTV and agree with most of what he said
#251
December 30th, 2009 23:32
Why hasnt BA been out yet this year? Looks as if he just has the national to target. I agree that he has a lot of good form in the book, winning some major races and was going well this year, i think the strong pace he went off at also may have been part of his downfall.
The most notable stat that he falls down on is that he has only been placed in 7/23 chases
Speedyseagull – Is Siegemaster likely to go to Aintree, with the same owners having War of Attrition
Good race at Cheltenham new years day, with King Johns Castle entered
#252
December 30th, 2009 23:38
Pablo, nice one, thanks for the answer. As you say, early days yet.
I wonder are French winners of the GN like buses – you wait 100 yrs. for one and then etc. etc.
I suppose Halcon, My Will, Miko and Butlers would have the best chance. Any others or can we write the French off this year.
#253
December 30th, 2009 23:49
Possol
Iris De Balme
Backstage
Also French breds
#254
December 30th, 2009 23:52
What mark has Halcon Genelardais been dropped down to, personally i don’t think he will head to Aintree and will probably head to the scottish national again
My Will falls down on the won 1 chase in last 10 starts stat, if he wins before weights are released his rating will be ruined and i would think he will run in the Gold Cup as a prep race again like last year
Miko de Beauchene looks the most interesting as it seems he’s had a return to a bit of form. One again he falls down on the place percentage stat in chases. He was entered into the 2nd declaration phase last year
#255
December 31st, 2009 00:09
Miko might have had a chance with another trainer but Venetia to win the GN again with another French horse is pushing it. What are the odds on that.
#256
December 31st, 2009 00:21
I’d have thought that being trained by last years winning trainer would be an advantage, not a reason to write him off
I fancy Miko as one to go well this year, should he line up.
Interesting quotes today about COE – how does he stack up on the stats? He could go well.
#257
December 31st, 2009 00:46
Ewok,
Any other race I would say yes but this is the Grand National, a once in a life time thing.
Not sure about Coe, depends on what stats you work with. He has only 1 chase win, has not won a C1/C2 race worth 17K+ and no 5th. Hennessy etc. stat. Maybe next year.
#258
December 31st, 2009 11:30
Niche Market. Looking at the stats I’m using suggests to me that at at this stage he’s a very unlikely winner. 16/16 had a win place s/r 47% or more on April 30th- 1 year before their win(NM 38%) 16/16 had a win place s/r 45% or more on 31st December(NM 38%). 14/16 had won 3 chases by 31st December, Lord Gyllene and Hedgehunter hadn’t but their win place s/r were 86% and 70% respectively. I accept that Niche Market has consistently ran in top chases for most of his racing career but, I’m guessing, so must have other GN winners. There is also the ‘Presenting’ issue (I admit I wouldn’t rule him out on just this though his Irish Nat win was 14 seconds slower than standard despite it being run on good ground) and all of thess things together just doesn’t add up to GN winner for me personally but when all is said and done he has won an Irish Nat and come 3rd in a Hennessy.
Church Island. He isn’t without doubts of course but he appears to meet all the stats I’m using. His last win came off an OR of only 128 in an ordinary race but since he’s had a close 4th to Butlers Cabin in Irish Nat, 135, 2nd to Niche Market in Irish Nat, 134, close 4th at Sandown 30f last April, 136, and 2nd in a Kerry National, 140. Perhaps he’s been knocking on the door or has ran the best he can who knows, but 16/18 GN winners won at Aintree off the same or a higher OR than their previous win.
Just noticed that Dream Alliance has a new RPR 157 but is still on an OR142. Does anyone know if his OR has been ammended yet?
#259
December 31st, 2009 12:12
Church Island’s new OR128. That is bad news!
#260
December 31st, 2009 12:30
that isn’t good nes at all, needs to find 11 pounds somewhere, unless the handicapper takes into account the ‘Irish’ factor for Aintree
Doesnt look as if Dream Alliance has been adjusted yet
#261
December 31st, 2009 12:42
Hi All. Really proud of the team as the TOP 6 tips roll in. Agree with Systemsman very little to separate my Top 6 entered (and depending on which angle I assessed it my Top 6 could have been turned on its head).
Dream Alliance to me may well be my main hope as the weeks come in. Pre-injury brilliant 2nd to Denman in Newbury Hennessy, class 1 wins, won on G/S (most likely going), great strike rate (50% +). Church Island is horse I can see most likely of all getting a place, but the class to win remains the question. With Dream though I won’t me making that Ramboesque mistake.
The Table is once again serving its great purpose – at this first stage we are really looking at drawing up some kind of longish short list. Table closes at midnight tonight and I’ll post up analysis before midnight tomorrow.
Is Butler dead in the water – still only 10 at GN and OR down to 135 – could get nice weight (maybe miss cut) – but hasn’t raced since the GN?
#262
December 31st, 2009 12:44
I think the BHA usually update the ratings on a Tuesday (so probably Weds this week) but that’s for the previous week’s racing (Sun through Sat).
So the ratings should be up on Tuesday for horses that ran in Welsh GN
More info at:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/media/ratings.asp
#263
December 31st, 2009 12:53
I’m not sure if Siegemaster will run but thought I would throw it in at this early stage as a wildcard. In fact, I’m not sure any of my 6 will actually run as there are reasons for all of them why they may well not! Fun and games at this stage!
Over the Creek has been definitely declared for the hurdles run at Cheltenham tomorrow. Hoping for a good run as he is on my list but not put any money on him yet for the National so hopefully price doesn’t shorten too much. A ‘staying on’ 4th or 5th would be lovely!!
#264
December 31st, 2009 13:01
Southern Vic runs on favoured ground at 1.40 Punchestown. Nice odds…
#265
December 31st, 2009 13:06
Church Island 128? But his last run was off 139, why has he been dropped so much?
Thanks for your thoughts on Coe, minnehoma
#266
December 31st, 2009 13:30
Church Island’s OR 128 in RP – can this be right? Has been beaten out of sight last 2 runs in UK but even so that’s a dramatic fall – can’t find it on BHA site – so might be an error, who knows?
If it is true he will be well-in next time they decide to run in a Veterans’ race in UK
#267
December 31st, 2009 13:49
Hope its not true for GN purposes but like Pablo says, it looks very lenient for wherever he runs next….
#268
December 31st, 2009 13:51
If it is right, i think he will definitely backed next time he runs.
Were his 2 last runs in the UK without the blinkers? – I know Ffos Las was, not sure about the Charlie Hall. They seemed to have made a fair bit of difference.
#269
December 31st, 2009 14:03
RP suggests both runs were with blinkers
#270
December 31st, 2009 14:07
Hey, are you guys all paying customers to RP info, I can’t see even CIslands new OR let alone other vital statistics, RPRs and TSs! Are us poor amateurs relying on others good will now?
#271
December 31st, 2009 14:16
KJ simply got to racing post home page eneter horse name in search box and all info come up.
#272
December 31st, 2009 14:22
Now, Church Island’s OR is back to 143! (Is this his Irish rating because that was higher wasn’t it?)
KJ, OR and best RPR is on the main page of a horse’s details. I’m not a signed up member myself.
This is like Wall Street. Buy, buy, sell, sell! Is someone having a good laugh in an office somewhere on a slow day!?
I meant OR128 was bad news because nothing got a run in the GN last year under OR139 and I don’t think he’ll race again until weights are out.
#273
December 31st, 2009 14:31
Glad it’s been put back up!!
His Irish rating was lower than the UK one, which probably means it won’t be adjusted like most Irish horses in the national
#274
December 31st, 2009 14:44
thanks, yeah still got the main details for free, CIs OR only just changed back here. Got to say I don’t think he could win anyway, still its nice to see all our main considerations line up.
I see noone has posted any views on Big Fella Thanks, wondering how I should read that, as I try to get my 6 up today. Also looking at Don’t Push It again in a vague way, as I have misplaced my notebook started last year on jan 1,… that says Mon Mome on top of 1st page of 6 fancies, most of home didn’t line up, with side note COD has the beating of them all! yes its painfully imprinted in my brain, only because of the ramboesque syndrome we developed,. it pains me to read his name or see him nervously popping over fences in the background of a race….agghhhh! poor fella.
#275
December 31st, 2009 14:54
so now he is up 4lbs for a 56 length beating? very confusing!! I’m going to call it a day and come back next year hehe
happy new year everyone.
#276
December 31st, 2009 14:54
should read ‘whom’ not home. Anyway I must get over it, but mustn’t forget ey.
BFT has OR 150 upper limits regarding weight, but I’m bogged down in what Ruby will get on, whatever it is I will back. Can I have Ruby on my list?
#277
December 31st, 2009 15:15
kj, i have big fella as my 5 pointer (posted list}.thought he ran a blinder last year,but probually a little young and inexperienced.interesting to see PN plot for him this year and as his jockey stated after getting off last year another year on and who knows.OR does not want to rise anymore,and also you have that stat. about finishing the previous year and being able to win the following,which in my opion is not one of the ones that could be flexed and broken.
#278
December 31st, 2009 15:31
CI’s Irish rating is 143 – guess we’ll have to wait until weights day to find out
Done some work on the movement in odds on oddschecker after Becher, Hennessy & Welsh
To be honest there has been very little movement in bookies best prices for most horses – obviously more movement in Betfair but that’s often to tiny stakes
And of course they are far too tight to lay anything over 66/1 – when they have 68 in the current list (how did the fat one off Channel 4 fail as a bookie!?!)
NA = not available (not quoted in oddschecker lists)
Pre Becher – Post Becher – Post Hennessy – Post Welsh – Horse
20 – 20 – NA – NA – Denman
20 – 20 – 20 – 20 – Tricky Trickster
25 – 25 – 25 – 25 – Backstage
25 – 25 – 25 – 25 – Black Apalachi
NA – NA – NA – 25 – Carruthers
25 – 25 – 25 – 25 – Comply Or Die
NA – NA – NA – 25 – The Package
NA – 25 – 25 – 25 – Vic Venturi
25 – 25 – 25 – 33 – State Of Play
33 – 33 – 33 – 25 – Big Fella Thanks
33 – 33 – 33 – 25 – Niche Market
33 – 33 – 33 – 25 – Possol
25 – 25 – 25 – 50 – Galant Nuit
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Arbor Supreme
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Ballytrim
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Character Building
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Companero
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Dont Push It
NA – NA – NA – 33 – Dream Alliance
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Hello Bud
33 – 33 – 33 – NA – Killyglen
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Mon Mome
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Nine De Sivola
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Northern Alliance
33 – 33 – 33 – 33 – Notre Pere
NA – NA – NA – 33 – Oscar Time
NA – NA – NA – 33 – Silver By Nature
33 – 33 – NA – NA – The Last Derby
33 – 33 – 33 – 40 – Garde Champetre
33 – 33 – 33 – 40 – My Will
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – According To John
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Butlers Cabin
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Cane Brake
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Cant Buy Time
40 – 40 – 40 – NA – Finger Onthe Pulse
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Gone To Lunch
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Hennessy
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Irish Raptor
NA – NA – NA – 40 – Miko De Beauchene
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Parsons Legacy
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Rambling Minster
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – Snowy Morning
40 – 40 – 40 – 40 – War Of Attrition
40 – 40 – 40 – 50 – King Johns Castle
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – According To Pete
NA – 50 – 50 – 50 – Beroni
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Casey Jones
NA – NA – NA – 50 – Cloudy Lane
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Cooldine
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Golden Flight
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Irish Invader
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Kilbeggan Blade
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Lami
NA – NA – NA – 50 – Offshore Account
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Oodachee
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Pomme Tiepy
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Roll Along
NA – NA – 50 – 50 – Royal Rosa
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Russian Trigger
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Siegemaster
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Silver Birch
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Southern Vic
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Treacle
50 – 50 – 50 – 50 – Valley Ride
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Abbeybraney
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Cerium
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Lysander
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Merigo
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Morgan Be
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Old Benny
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – One Cool Cookie
66 – 66 – 66 – 66 – Palypso De Creek
#279
December 31st, 2009 15:32
How fit does a national winner need to be? looks at the last 19 winners
Horse Season runs distance season runs last run
(furlongs)
Mr Frisk 148 6 Chl
Seagram 181 7 Chl
Party Politics 113 4 Hay
Miinnehoma 47 2 Chl
Royal Athlete 178 7 Don
Rough Quest 165 6 Chl
Lord Gyllene 166 6 Utt
Earth Summit 131 5 Hay
Bobbyjo 136 6 Dro
Papillon 125 6 Leo
Red Marauder 134 6 Hay
Bindaree 151 6 Chl
Montys Pass 152 9 Pun
Amberleigh House 120 5 Don
Hedgehunter 144 6 Fai
Numbersixvalverde135 6 Naa
Silver Birch 130 5 Chl
Comply or Die 106 4 Ncs
Mon Mome 176 6 Utt
I’ve put this up as a few national hopefuls are yet to run this season and Find this quite interesting, the left column shows the total mileage added together (hope the maths is still good!!) of all the races that the horse has taken part in during the season prior to the national. A couple didnt quite complete their races – includes CoD, which goes to show how remarkable the training performance by David Pipe was. It also shows running 3-4 races over shorter distances is no preparation for a national. If a national horse is yet to run this year, then they have got quite a bit of a mileage to do, only minnehoma, who came back from injury is the exception and we know what a trend buster Martin Pipe was. Minnehoma did have form in some key races though
The right hand column is where the horse ran prior to the national, all of the English based horses ran LH. Does this mean The Racing Post chase at Kempton a race that is not ideal before the national? If so i would expect both Big Fella Thanks and Possol to line up in it again. It also shows that a horse that has form at Haydock, Doncaster, Uttoxeter and Cheltenham is very useful
Can Miko de Beauchene return to winning form in the Blue Square Gold Gup, before a prep in the midlands national like Mon Mome?
Admin – Think a stats page is needed
#280
December 31st, 2009 15:34
the table didnt come out quite right. The left hand figure is the total furlongs ran during the season by the horse, the middle one is season runs
#281
December 31st, 2009 15:42
TC – good stats
I think Royal Athlete should be 98 (furlongs) 4 (runs)
Depends on trainer – Pipe doesn’t necessarily run his much but NTD and Venetia Williams tend to run theirs more
Also those running over hurdles will tend to run at less than 3 miles more than in chases (especially in Ireland)
But it does look as though anything running less than 100f in season needs to be looked at carefully – has it been running over hurdles a lot, can the trainer get them fit at home?
#282
December 31st, 2009 15:53
yes Mandie, that getting placed before in the GN stat is solid and rather worrying as my current thoughts include COD 2nd and My Will 3rd, but I don’t really think they can win, just place again. Not sure what the stats are for placers placing again!
Oh course BFT didn’t place! came 6th, can’t remember unplaced stat, think its better and can be down to analysis of an individuals passage in the race, like MMs race history.
#283
December 31st, 2009 16:06
TC – looking at top 10 from last year it appears that fitness, as measured by furlongs run in public, may have been a key factor in determining the final positions
Of those that ran >100f – Mon Mome a clear winner, BFT a Novice and Southern Vic on unsuitable ground
Furlongs – Runs – Horse
176 – 6 – Mon Mome
79 – 3 – Comply Or Die
54 – 2 – My Will
50 – 2 – State Of Play
27 – 1 – Cerium
145 – 6 – Big Fella Thanks
98 – 4 – Butler´s Cabin
132 – 6 – Southern Vic
89 – 4 – Snowy Morning
26 – 1 – Arteea
Clearly this is in only one year’s worth of data and doesn’t prove much, but might explain partly why Mon Mome won so easily – he was that much fitter (had the race-fit edge)
And of course hindsight is wonderful
#284
December 31st, 2009 16:09
Yeah, Royal Athlete should be 98f and Montys Pass 172f. Most of the Irish horses tend to run in 3m hurdles and run just as often. It does show that a horse that hasnt run yet though would have to be a very classy horse to win
I do think the run prior to the national is interesting, with no UK runner going RH before the national itself. Dream Alliance is yet to have form on any of those tracks i’ve put up either
#285
December 31st, 2009 16:48
that is very interesting.
BFT had run 4 times by end of year last yr, only 1 this time.
MM 3 times last yr, 2 this yr (withdrawn from welsh)
SV 3 times last yr, 2 this year.
any horses ran 3 times this year?
#286
December 31st, 2009 16:50
hello bud has 4
#287
December 31st, 2009 16:51
gone to lunch 3
#288
December 31st, 2009 16:54
These have run 3 times or more since 1 Sept – of the more fancied runners on oddschecker:
Miko De Beauchene
Gone To Lunch
Cane Brake
Niche Market
Church Island
Hello Bud
Irish Raptor
Vic Venturi
My Will
Dont Push It
#289
December 31st, 2009 17:06
good work pablo, its funny how this list comprises of several I have tried to write off, probably due to the number of races they’ve been in to access. I think all in this list have a mixed bag of results, but more chance of being match fit come the big one perhaps. Don’t Push It has a fantastic set so far this year too, suprised no points on our top6.
#290
December 31st, 2009 17:07
assess i mean
#291
December 31st, 2009 17:14
oh his OR has gone up to 155! yikes
although this yr with MM 161 could be better off than most yrs
#292
December 31st, 2009 17:22
RPR +9 / OR to WIN right?
is this a 18/18 stat or something?
sorry to ask but I have lost my notebook and its impossible to trawl through this site.
Hopefully Admin will see the several recent new requests for a stats only page.
#293
December 31st, 2009 17:32
Think we could be on to something with the fitness of a national winner. Looking through ’08 as well despite CoD not having done too much mileage in the season, only Snowy Morning and Nadover had done more in the first 7 – both were 2nd season chasers
RPR best of 7 more than the horse’s OR
#294
December 31st, 2009 17:41
WOA has 4 runs this yr, could get offered a kind weight and has been running better this term. Is out of Presenting tho.
look, I can’t study enough today (or possibly ever) its new yr! Happy New Year everyone!
I know more study never won ME this great stats race anyway! I’d need a table of complete stats qualifiers with the right RPR OR ratio etc etc, just gonna stick some up, that are getting sidelined maybe (worried about the bandwagon rolling on again) some double letters or maybe all doublle letters
now wheres the last top6 posting!
#295
December 31st, 2009 17:42
Taking into account Snowy Morning’s and Hedgehunter’s preparation for the nationals in ’05 and ’08, i would think that Arbor Supreme could skip the national this time around
#296
December 31st, 2009 17:52
I guess that the 4-6 runs kind of takes care of the fitness angle – assuming that each race is around 24-25f or more – that would make around 100+f in a season – especially if one 28f+ race is included
Agree with KJ – time to get ready for NYE’s excesses
HNY all!
#297
December 31st, 2009 18:25
Right, my list..before its too late
6 Don’t Push It
5 Big Fella Thanks
4 Comply or Die
3 War of Attrition
2 Black Apalachi
1 Possol
I’ve kinda played the ‘my others have too many points already’ system. I also fancy to name but a few… win or place mostly,
Dream Alliance -23strong syndicate too
Niche Market
Gone to Lunch
My Will
Ruby
35.Niche Market
29.Church Island
28.Dream Alliance
24.Hello Bud
21.Gone To Lunch
11.Black Apalachi
10. Trabolgan
10.Big Fella Thanks
9. Snowy Morning
7. Comply or Die
7. My Will
6. Don’t Push It
6. Siegemaster
6. Mico De Beauchene
6. Parsons Legacy
6. Arbor Supreme
5. War of Attrition
5. Character Building
5. Possol
4. Casey Jones
3. Backstage
2. Cane Brake
2. State Of Play
2. Jass
2. Over The Creek
1. Mr. Pointment
#298
December 31st, 2009 18:42
Hi Kj – dare i say it – might you have the wrong mcmanus oneill horse ! whats your thoughts on Can’t buy time – i think he could be this years king johns castle ….
Runs tomoro at cheltenham
Mr Jonjos comments
Although Can’t Buy Time is a big horse, the key to him is good ground. He improved enormously over the course of the season before not getting home over four miles at Cheltenham and then coming to grief in the National. Under normal conditions, three miles is his ideal trip but as he is such a good jumper Jonjo believes he is a National horse and will more than likely be his main challenger for the unique race this season. He will likely start off his season at Ascot at the end of the month.
Silver Birchs comments
The big question mark is over whether he can truly stay . !! but this fellas some price on betfair… theres always one surprise package each year and i think this could be the one . i cant get out my head how easily he won at sandown last year and then ran well in the four miler at chelts behind tricky trickster . if the ground reamins goodish or slightly on the soft side of good he could surprise – if its dream alliance type of going i think his goose will be well and truly cooked..
#299
December 31st, 2009 19:23
doh! could be, haven’t even looked at this one, sorry gettin on the New Year vibe here now, couldn’t resist looking back for a little feedback tho, its whats great about this place in my opinion, so thanks Birchy and all the best for the new year.
GN is an all or nothing game, I’m somewhere in the middle, worst place to be?! don’t want to be blinkered by popular choices, would like to leave the pure stats to the stats maestros, get a ‘complete qualifiers list’ by the milk of human kindness, and zone out to my lucky feelings (and feelings from watching a horses movement etc) see if I can get another winner, ahh. Sorry dreaming, seriously I think ground is very important and would tend toward good ground horses these days as you know, this new fitness levels stat seems interesting.
#300
December 31st, 2009 19:39
what do you think McCoy will get on, because I generally can’t have him in this race! sorry, he should win it one day, but he’s not a good bet in this race, but this year I’m willing to risk it, he’s got a great chance on Gone to Lunch or Don’t Push It… surely.
#301
December 31st, 2009 20:24
My you lot been busy! I noticed Black Apalachi has now 11pts (3 of them from me). Well first of all I’ve some news of the Des Hughes pair (Black Apalachi & Vic Ventui) from the Daily Express racing section this New Year’s Eve!
Black Apalachi who was travelling like the winner before unseating his rider in last season’s John Smith’s Grand National, returns to action at Leopardstown on January 10.
“There’s been nothing wrong with him,” said trainer Dessie Hughes yesterday. ” I can see no point in running him unless he has a chance of winning.
And of course, I have to look after his rating regarding the weights for the National.”
Protecting a horse’s handicap has now become common practise for fancied National runners before the weights are announced in February. ” I don’t want his weight to go up from last season’s race.” said Hughes the father of leading Flat Jockey, Richard.
” Another 7 pounds on his back would finish him.
Last season Black Apalachi had 11-5 on his back before Denis O’ Regan fell off at Becher’s Brook the second time round.
He will make his appearance over hurdles in a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier,” said Hughes. ” Depending when the National weights come out, we could again go for the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse.
We won that last season.”
Hughes also has another serious contender for the Aintree marathon in Vic Venturi. Both horses have a similar profile and like Black Apalachi, Hughes is also protecting his handicap mark.
” I was very pleased with his recent run over hurdles the other day at Leopardstown where he was fifth.
Hopefully both horses go to the National with a really good chance.
It’s a difficult choice between the two as to which has the best chance. Both are by Our Vic, both go on any ground and they both won the Becher Chase, run over a circuit of the Grand National course.
Now all we need is some luck.”
#302
December 31st, 2009 20:26
He he he … yes indeed kj – no matter what all our anorak stats say theres always a copule that tug on our heartstrings and we need to have a bet on those becuase they are straight from the heart .. think mines might be cant buy time .. ive no idea what mcoy will ride – thats a v good question , anybody any ideas ? id better go now and get into this new year eves malarkey . ill be back for duty tomorrow ha ha .. happy new year all and very best wishes for 2010 when it comes…
#303
December 31st, 2009 21:03
Last year you lot became fascinated with a horse called Rambling Minster (aka Rambo). I had just found this site (actually between weights published and race day) on google and only looked at the main site (the one with the trends by the Admin), but was unaware of this blog section.
Since the discovery of this blog I come to discover the likemindedness of my fellow bloggers. I have to tell you it’s my personal opinion that you got another Rambo on your hands in the form of Church Isand. Let me explain myself then if you still fancy it, so be it.
He had five runs this season and I think his jumping is letting him down (although he hasn’t fallen, yet.)
Wetherby 31 Oct ( Prominent, oupaced 7th, reminders after 9th, lost touch 12, took distant 4th 4 out, eventually completed.)
Limerick 11 Oct ( Led, not fluent 6 out, headed next, 5th and ridden 3 out, 7th before 2 out, stayed on from last)
Listowel 16 Sep ( Chase leader in 2nd, led 3rd, ridden and headed 2 out, kept on same pace to go 2nd run-in.)
Ffos Las 28 Aug ( Soon struggling in rear, tailed off from 13th.)
Killarney 15 Jul ( Led mistake 8th, headed from 4 out, soon lost place and weakened.)
#304
December 31st, 2009 21:52
“crisp 73 says:
December 31, 2009 at 11:30 AM
Niche Market. Looking at the stats I’m using suggests to me that at at this stage he’s a very unlikely winner. 16/16 had a win place s/r 47% or more on April 30th- 1 year before their win(NM 38%) 16/16 had a win place s/r 45% or more on 31st December(NM 38%). 14/16 had won 3 chases by 31st December, Lord Gyllene and Hedgehunter hadn’t but their win place s/r were 86% and 70% respectively.”
Many thanks Crisp for that. I too have grave doubts about Niche Market on trends. Only two chase wins (needs another) and no 45% strike rate (a key factor) so he cant be NO 1 in any list but his run against Denman cant be dismisssed but he just dosnt add up so far for me, but being a coward I have a 50% bet on him at this stage.
Re: Dream Alliance if over OR 150 you can forget him as far as I am conerned – I’am waiting before placing a bet (if OR 150 or under).
Still leaves us with Hello Bud (will he bloom in Spring!!), Church Island (great trends but no quote so far other than betfair). Gone To Lunch (but will he be go to lunch at the Scottish GN or The GN?), Parsons Legacy (great trends) but what has he achieved?
A real puzzle is it not? – hopefully the weights will help us out a bit.
I’am going to do a little more research and look very hard again at all possibles on OR 137 to 150 (137 to 148 best)assuuming Mon Mome is OR 161 on the day on 11.10
#305
December 31st, 2009 22:42
just time to give top 6.please ad to list.
black appalachi
niche mkt
c.o.d
my will
hello bud
m.d.beuchene.
thanks and happy new year to all.
#306
December 31st, 2009 23:01
Happy New year to everyone – the year we all win £££££££00000000′s on the GN!
I have spent most of the evening doing some research for us all – to be posted very soon – how sad is that?
#307
December 31st, 2009 23:04
Thanks for your list Green St.
The list now looks like this :-
40 Niche Market
29 Church Island
28 Dream Alliance
26 Hello Bud
21 Gone To Lunch
17 Black Apalachi
11 Comply Or Die
10 Trabolgan
10 Big Fella Thanks
10 My Will
9 Snowy Morning
8 Miko De Beauchene
6 Don’t Push It
6 Siegemaster
6 Parson’s Legacy
6 Arbor Supreme
5 War Of Attrition
5 Character Building
5 Possol
4 Casey Jones
3 Backstage
2 Cane Brake
2 Jass
2 Over The Creek
1 Mr Pointment
This if I’ve made no errors is how the table stands at this moment in time.
#308
December 31st, 2009 23:05
Systemsman if it leads to a profitable Year for you, then you will have the last laugh.
#309
December 31st, 2009 23:30
The last 5 Welsh National winners were raised 6lb; 9lb; 9lb; 10lb; and 11lbs.
If Dream Alliance OR142 is given 6lbs. that would be a cracker, 9lbs. would be borderline but he could always run a stinker in Jan. and drop a pound or two.
I think without doubt he has the best form in the best 2 races and at the right time. His WN win has solved his top speed fault, 125 to 142. It has also given him that important 3rd. chase win at the right time.
Earth Summit ’98 was the last horse to win the WN and GN in the same season. If Dream Alliance wins the GN, he would be the first horse in 6 or 7 years to show top form in one of the two top races in the winning season.
#310
January 1st, 2010 09:24
Yip agreed Minnehoma – i think it would be madness to leave this horse out of peoples equations – 2nd in a henessy, 1st in a welsh national – thats exactly what we want to see on a national winners cv . even if he goes up 11 lbs ill still be backing him … then he could be carrying 11-2 . is that really so bad given hedgehunter and mon mome won off 11-1 and 11-0 respectively … even if hes not most peoples top pick he surely is a must for peoples extended list of 6-8 horses.. will be facinating to see where he goes next…
#311
January 1st, 2010 12:45
Yesterday, Church Island kept changing from OR 128 to 143 but not to day. He seems fixed on OR 128, if this is the case, it surely blows him out of GN. I think 4 or 5 had him as their no.1 choice, so should we have a new vote. yes/no
#312
January 1st, 2010 13:34
Miinne, I think the real yes/no answer would be, are you prepared to place so cash on him. Myself I was not impressed with his two trips over the Irish Sea, this season.
I was also not impressed with his jumping. I think the bookies would lay odds on him getting round, never mind winning.
The time however for me to be persuaded to change my mind, just like I did with Niche Market. However it’ll have to be something special.
#313
January 1st, 2010 14:07
awful run from Jass today.
Over the Creek now a non-runner today. Annoying.
#314
January 1st, 2010 14:27
Morning all, loving the sun…from indoors!
things are cookin ey, some firm opinion on why Church Island won’t be in the frame Neil S, I agree. Also feel that way about Hello Bud, 2nd and 4th on our new year list. I understand they must meet alot of stats to be so popular, what are they failing on? its certainly not the new distance=fitness theory!
looked at oddschecker just now and we have movement! some I put up have really come in, BA is as short as 16s!
shame Over the creek doesn’t come out to play speedy. Did someone say KJC was supposed to run today?
#315
January 1st, 2010 14:32
NM,BFT and VV all have 1 price at 16s now. Shall we wait or start playing guess what weight they’ll get and get some money down!
#316
January 1st, 2010 14:40
Church Island back to 128! and no quotes on oddschecker?! the mystery continues
#317
January 1st, 2010 15:01
hope you had Can’t buy time today Silver.
#318
January 1st, 2010 15:05
Kj in mine list I did give Hello Bud only two. I think he’ll run out of petrol on normal ground the national encounters. However lets look back (in anger) sorry in history.
1989 Little Polveir race. (I was there) the going was heavy that day. (As I discovered when walking the ground from entrance to grandstand).
1990 Mr Frisk race.(What a difference a year makes, the last time the race had the description of firm in it.)
I noticed looking through some old post.(Not too old that someone like Turpin Green. Sorry about this should have posted this earlier. Still better late than never.)
Trainer Sue Smith’s comments to the weekender about Turpin Green.
He is another horse Trevor Hemmings has sent us, this time from Nicky Richards, who did very well with him. Mr Hemmings believes that a change of scenery could help to rekindle the form he showed when third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is another who has had a wind operation and I can report that he is working well at this moment. His only run for us was in November when fourth in a handicap chase over 3 miles and that was a fair effort. He has relatively few miles on the clock and he is definitely coming to hand now. I had hoped to run in the Rowland Meyrick at the weekend but the weather foiled us, so we will look for a similar target.
Turpin Green is 11 today.
#319
January 1st, 2010 15:12
Hey KJ i didnt back him today but my dad was on
.. i did however help myself to some ridiculous odds on betfair last night for the national so the next few months will be really exciting . he doesnt pass all the stats but hes a lovely exciting bet now to have on the big day if he manages to turn up . I hope I at least pointed u in the right direction and you managed to have a few quid on today or had a small tickle for the national – ive heard hes been quoted at 25s now for the nat .. another interesting contender.
#320
January 1st, 2010 15:35
No, I failed to take the hint, too busy getting smashed! I haven’t put my hand in my pocket for anything yet, but thinking I should if things are contracting up, just gotta work out weight potentials ha! how will BA be treated?? oh dear today is not the day.
Neil, got to say I much prefer Hello Bud to Church Island, just drawing parallels with Church island because of their style and the fact I think if they are still infront after say the chair, several younger and or faster will overtake them. I think HB can win if he runs them in to the ground and thinking you can hold him up ( did just changed this wording from hold em, who has sadly been destroyed) and pass others at the end of the race is a nonsense.
#321
January 1st, 2010 16:29
I remember in the 1991 welsh national a horse called Carvill’s Hill and how impressive its victory over Party Politics. At the time everyone was talking about it winning the Gold Cup. I however saw one or two minor errors in its jumping. Considering it was already clear of the next horse. I thought that its jumping should have been like a show jumping horse because the jockey had time to measure his stride. So when Golden Freeze happened in the Gold cup it was no shock to me. This is my experience and my reason against Church Island in the Grand National. To put it in a cliche, the name of the game is jumping.
#322
January 1st, 2010 17:18
Can’t Buy Time is a smart looking animal, liked his jumping from what I noticed,..to be honest forgot he was in the race til 3/4 the way round, new year brained! He is definately sitting in my box named McCoy. Doing that thing I did last yr, with MM and L’Ami, pairing horses up, picking the wrong one, then discarding the other one anyway.
#323
January 1st, 2010 17:35
Can’t buy time has a nice topical apocalytic link too
a bit like the state of my home right now, Can’t Push It back any further,. cleaning up,. Here I come!
#324
January 1st, 2010 17:43
For all you revellers out there I hope everyone’s hangover is clearing…
I have been studying the best RPRs achieved by winners since 1990
With the exception of Rough Quest all winners achieved their best RPR in a handicap rather than in a conditions chase. (Rough Quest achieved a best handicap RPR of 162, still 10lb ahead of his GN-winning mark – his best of 170 was achieved in the Gold Cup a couple of weeks before the race).
Taking best handicap RPR – OR then the following horses at the top of the market do not look to be well-handicapped on handicap form (if that makes sense):
Horse; handicap RPR; OR; difference
TT = 144 – 149 = -5
BA = 158 – 155 = +3
Possol = 151 – 151 = 0
VV = 158 – 154 = 4
Should we dismiss consitions chase RPRs and concentrate on handicap RPRs only? Be interested in your thoughts…
#325
January 1st, 2010 17:45
*conditions not consitions
#326
January 1st, 2010 18:43
HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL and Hello to all the team
Well here is the result and the first (of four) standings of our league table for the TOP 6 TIPSTERS COMPETITION. The second stage opens on Monday 16 February upon the allocation of the GN weights.
40 Niche Market
29 Church Island
28 Dream Alliance
26 Hello Bud
21 Gone To Lunch
17 Black Apalachi
11 Comply Or Die
10 Trabolgan
10 Big Fella Thanks
10 My Will
9 Snowy Morning
8 Miko De Beauchene
6 Don’t Push It
6 Siegemaster
6 Parson’s Legacy
6 Arbor Supreme
5 War Of Attrition
5 Character Building
5 Possol
4 Casey Jones
3 Backstage
2 Cane Brake
2 Jass
2 Over The Creek
1 Mr Pointment
Whilst 25 horses feature from our collective tips and fancies. The Top 10 are the only horses to break into double figures – so let’s look closer at those.
The Top 10 is a veritable feast of horses with great credentials for staking their claim for our considertaions this year’s GN. NICHE MARKET certainly is a ‘now’ horse – having added a brilliant third in the Hennessy to Denman 5 weeks ago, to his already suoperb securing of last year’s Irish National. A real progressive but only 2 career chase wins may cause some concern. Silver medal spot goes to CHURCH ISLAND – though seemingly no direct or obvious claims, many seem to feel this horse will be there or thereabouts, with 2 placings in the Irish GN and many good long distance showings. Still only 1 win in Bronze position we possibly have what many may see as a real threat this year, a class act returning to hot form just at the right time and winner of last week’s gruelling Welsh GN – the appropraitelt titked DREAM ALLIANCE. He also brings to the table a runner up showing to Denman in the Hennessy and a high strike rate. The Scottish GN winner and runner up HELLO BUD and GONE TO LUNCH are then very close in 4th and 5th place. HELLO BUD goes on any ground and although showing no great shakes since his big win, many feel he is protecting his OR and brings us a plus in that he goes on any ground. GONE TO LUNCH promises much and his 5th to Denman in the HENNESSY has stood him well. Many though are not sure of his Aintree intentions. The hugely talented BLACK APALACHI is the last horse that has garnered a substantial number of votes and comes in at 6th place – his class cannot be denied but no runs since last years GN fall must be a concern. In 7th is another class act COMPLY OR DIE – who surely must be in with a shout again this year. However once the weights have been published many may like to see some form and a really good work out before this year’s race. In joint 10th place come 3 horses with very different stories to tell: MY WILL ran very creditably last year – but many feel his chronically low strike rate (1 win in last 5 years) displays a total void of killer instinct and may view him as an excellent ‘place only’ bet again this year. BIG FELLA THANKS is seen by many as super progressive and tipped to improve on his excellent debut of 6th place last year. HENNESSY winner in 2005 TRABOLGAN is making his way back to form and some view this brilliant class act as a real threat this year, if his return to form continues to pick up steam.
Mon Mome still hasn’t picked up a point (that’ll be consistent with last year) as obviously his OR and weight allocation we seem to view as one ask too far. So, who will be topping the League in 6 weeks time? Today’s winner Can’t Buy Time should enter the table by then (has AP got his winner at last) and things could be turned literally upside down following that monumental event – The GN weights allocation – let’s hope it’s a fair deal for all this year.
#327
January 1st, 2010 19:19
Happy new year to all!!
What a farce Cheltenham became today!
It looks a very strong top 10, especially in comparison to the list last year. Eight of them with a key race to their name and a previous winner. I think the list i put up a few posts back with the ‘fitness of a national winner’ would probably give CoD, BA, BFT and Trabolgan a slim chance in April. I do think the current top 5 are looking very strong candidates. I am starting to have doubts as to whether Arbor Supreme will go to Aintree, with JP having both Don’t Push It and Can’t Buy Time.
Not too sure what’s going on with Church Island’s rating but surely the handicapper will take into account his Kerry National 2nd amongst some poor results and i’d be surprised if he doesnt get in at Aintree. If we don’t see him before weights are announced then i think the handicapper will have assured them he’ll have a place at Aintree. I really can’t see his jumping as a major problem with the way he performed last spring – especially the run in the Betfred at Sandown.
Both My Will and Miko de Beauchene i would expect to move up the table next time. Both fall down on the lack of a win in their last 10 chases. Miko de Beauchene could be the one to correct that in the Blue Square Gold Cup off a much lower mark
#328
January 1st, 2010 20:04
720 horses have run since 1990
232 with 3 runs or fewer in season – 1 win & 19 places
488 with 4 or more runs in season – 18 wins & 38 places
So the place rate is almost identical at around 8%
But the win rate for horses is very poor with fewer than 4 runs (0.4%) as against 4 or more runs (3.7%)
#329
January 1st, 2010 20:07
Interesting showlad the top 10 all seemed have got my votes.
Don’t know how the table went this time last year, but without my vote you would be looking at
40 Niche Market (-6) 34
28 Dream Alliance (-5) 23
21 Gone To Lunch (-4) 17
17 Black Apalachi (-3) 14
26 Hello Bud (-2) 24
10 My Will (-1) 9
The table would have looked like
34 Niche Market
29 Church Island
24 Hello Bud
23 Dream Alliance
17 Gone To Lunch
14 Black Apalachi
11 Comply Or Die
10 Trabolgan
10 Big Fella Thanks
09 My will
09 Snowy Morning
08 Miko De Beauchene
06 Don’t Push It
06 Siegemaster
06 Parson’s Legacy
06 Arbor Supreme
05 War Of Attrition
05 Possol
05 Character Building
04 Casey Jones
03 Backstage
02 Cane Brake
02 Jass
02 Over The Creek
01 Mr Pointment
To help form this as been a collective effort of TC (Top Horse Church Island), Siver Birch (Top Horse Niche Market), Myself (Top Horse Niche Market), Pablo (Top Horse Black Apalachi), Showlad (Top Horse Hello Bud), Miinnehoma (Top Horse Trabolgan), Mandie (Top Horse Hello Bud), Thai Mark (Top Horse Church Island), Crisp 73 (Top Horse Church Island), Systemsman (Top Horse Church Island), Speedyseagull (Top Horse Siegemaster), KJ (Top horse Don’t Push It) and last but not least Green St (Top Horse Black Apalachi)
Impressive and my first thought was if you took one person’s vote out of the list would it make a difference. ANSWER NO!!!
#330
January 1st, 2010 20:12
Interesting that Church Island has the most top votes, yet even without my votes he comes second to Niche Market.
Just thought I point this out.
#331
January 1st, 2010 21:08
Pablo:
“Horse; handicap RPR; OR; difference
TT = 144 – 149 = -5
BA = 158 – 155 = +3
Possol = 151 – 151 = 0
VV = 158 – 154 = 4″
Yes I do find it strange that these horses are at the head of the market as none are in my top list for very good reasons. I’am gald you have found other good reasons for suggesting they are not what they seem and are in fact not a god bet.
I hope to post my New Year Eve reseach, I burnt the “midnight candle” for you all and never toached a drop of acholchol (cant spell can I). I cant post it however till we have the new OR’s for the xmas runs for DA and others as this will strongly affect the chart (cant wait for DA new OR). It will be a “probability chart” (or thats what I am calling it”) that will pin point the likely GN 2010 winner!!!!
Probably have to wait till Wednesday (when new OR’s come out I am told). Cant wait to see the final results myself – could be a surprise or two!! (but i can say now it would have shown that the four hosres listed by Pablo were not good bets)
#332
January 1st, 2010 21:13
If Church Island is OR 128 then he will not even get in the GN (the RP web site doe shave him on 128)! Something is odd about that OR – anyone able to check this up more (any cantact at RP or BHRB)?
I have held back my bet on CI as so far he is not listed by and High Street bookies and will not place a bet untill he has an OR of 137 to 150 and is listed by at least some of the High Street bookies.
#333
January 1st, 2010 21:16
The thing with Church Island is the fact he wouldnt be a particular ‘fashionable’ horse to back at Aintree because of the fact he hasnt won any major races. I know he’s been pipped at the line a few times, but would that happen in a trip even further?
Also, I doubt that he’s well known to most in comparison to Niche Market. Take NM out of the Irish nat, then in CI you would have been looking at a very easy Irish national winner off a very low weight that would be currently close to favouritism. I dont think there is much to split them and they will be both strong contenders in April. Personally with NM its the ‘Presenting’ factor that worries me slightly
#334
January 1st, 2010 21:17
Showladi can almost gurantee that Church Island will drop like a stone for the next chart starting on 16th Feb unless the RP has got his OR wrong.
#335
January 1st, 2010 21:18
systems – i would think the handicapper will go with CI’s Irish rating for the national. He’s been competitive enough off 143 in his last 2 runs in Ireland
#336
January 1st, 2010 21:23
Church Island’s Irish rating is 143 and he’s not listed on the BHA list
http://www.itm.ie/Content/ITM/SubData/subratingsearch.aspx
…for Irish ratings
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/media/ratings/
…for UK ratings
#337
January 1st, 2010 21:33
A little appetiser to wet the appetite for my “probablity chart” to follow on Wednesday.
Black Apalachi – why he is a bad bet for the GN
OR 155 – probable weight is 11.04 (if MM is OR161 on 11.10). To high.
No horse has won with 11.04 in the last 15 years (top was 11.01)
1/2/3 Strike rate is 30.43% – needs 45%. Strike rate too low.
No run this season (has not run 2 prep race by 1st jan) – far to late for first run.
No 1/2/3 this season so far.
Pablos Handicap issue (since 1990 – With the exception of Rough Quest all winners achieved their best RPR in a handicap rather than in a conditions chase).
Horse; handicap RPR; OR; difference
BA = 158 – 155 = +3
So not so good is he?
Cant win with aproble weight of 11.04 or an OR of 155 this year I am afraid!
Anyone agree or disagree and why?
#338
January 1st, 2010 21:43
Agree with systems, i do think that was his best chance was last year, and he was in great form. Having just a couple of runs before the national is not enough preparation in my opinion. I’m going to firmly stick with the stats and BA doesnt look great.
Would like to have seen him run this year at least over hurdles.
#339
January 1st, 2010 22:09
Some more basic research to add to Pablo’s.
Last 15 years.
12/15 have had a 1/2 or 3rd place (from August to December)in any type (hurdle or Chase any kind) of race by Dec 31st. The other three all achieved it in March (2006, 2000 and 1999).
So you need to suspect any horse without a 1/2/3 so far – BA,GTL,COD,Trabolgan,SM [does May 17th count as last season or this seson?] supporters take note!! – but take into account there is still time especiely in March. It does help a lot however to pinpoint a few good anti post bets dont you think? (no anti post bet unless 1/2/3 so far perhaps)
#340
January 1st, 2010 22:14
Snowy Morning came 3rd today Systemsman staying on well at the end of his race
#341
January 1st, 2010 22:21
Is the start of the season not May 1st?
I do expect a bit more of SM in this years national off a lower mark
#342
January 1st, 2010 22:33
I think 1st May is the official start of the season for the jockey’s championship etc
I use 1st September for my GN stats – # runs etc
Most GN horses don’t bother with summer jumping – prize money generally low and quality of racing largely poor
#343
January 1st, 2010 22:39
I’m agree too systems, I gave BA a couple of points in my top6, which was underehersed and naughty as I voted for horses that hadn’t appeared on the list yet or to close the gap on the groups top5, I also voted for most likely placing horses, not fully investigated and sentimentality tends to creep in there (not the case for COD). I think BAs best chance has gone, with no prep runs, a high OR and having fallen twice before in this race, I’d need to hear that he’s been improving his upper body strength with press ups before I back him.
#344
January 1st, 2010 22:53
My list was loosely based on stat. More on what race reader of R P would benefit from the trial races. Topped up by a couple from last year’s race. Apart from the top two the little to separate the next four.
#345
January 1st, 2010 23:19
Another runner I have been keeping an eye on is Ponmeoath. However he is 1000/1 on Betfair and trainer said a couple of years ago that he may be too small to be an Aintree horse
#346
January 1st, 2010 23:46
So far on performances this season I have narrowed it down to these 9 – I have doubts about all of them and others may come into the picture:
Cane Brake: Needs a decent chase performance this season to confirm well-being
Can’t Buy Time: No key race & doubts about trip
Church Island: Doubts about being too exposed – always seems to run out of gas towards the end of his races
Dream Alliance: Doubts about good ground, needs to miss Cheltenham as best fresh
Gone To Lunch: Disappointingly pulled up in Welsh National; hopefully it was ground but had a hard race in Hennessy too; not a certain runner
Miko De Beauchene: Low strike-rate and high number of falls
My Will: Hasn’t won for ages
Niche Market: Probably needs a break
Snowy Morning: Needs a better chase performance this season to confirm well-being
#347
January 2nd, 2010 00:04
Re- the top 5 horses on our list.
Has anyone got any new stats, they would like to share with us, that would boost or find fault with any or all of our top 5 horses.
Niche Market, Church Island, Dream Alliance, Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch.
#348
January 2nd, 2010 00:30
I’m sure Crisp will have plenty more stats
On a pedigree point of view Hello Bud has a little too much pace
Having Busted, Montelimar and Roselier in the horse’s pedigree has to be a big plus. Both CI and NM both have Busted in their profile which has covered quite a few winners in recent years. Has anyone else got views on Presenting horses, i wouldn’t rule NM out on that but is a little concern for me
#349
January 2nd, 2010 11:10
Pablo, I like the idea of using best ‘handicap chase’ RPR.
Those Win/place strike rates of last 16 winners.
first column;April 30th 1 year before win
second column; 31st December that season
third column; raceday
Miinnehoma 86% 86% 78%
Royal Athlete 54% 54% 50%
Rough Quest 71% 70% 70%
Lord Gyllene 75% 86% 90%
Earth Summit 60% 57% 54%
Bobbyjo 75% 53% 47%
Papillon 53% 48% 42%
Red Marauder 63% 45% 46%
Bindaree 66% 62% 53%
Montys Pass 66% 66% 66%
Amberleigh House 47% 47% 46%
Hedgehunter 70% 70% 73%
Numbersixvalverde75% 67% 60%
Silver Birch 60% 55% 62%
Comply Or Die 50% 46% 50%
Mon Mome 53% 55% 50%
#350
January 2nd, 2010 11:29
Thanks Crisp. So its clear fom the last 16 years stats that you must have 45% strike rate by now (Dec 31st) so how many on our leaders board of 25 horses are knocked out by this?
Nich Market for one!! A 37.5% strike rate yet we have him as NO 1 in the list – come on people lets look into him bit more.
Black Apalachi 30.43%
How many others?
We need to look at the top ten or so a lot harder I think.
#351
January 2nd, 2010 11:49
thats a neat table Crisp, with Lord Gyllene the main exception as usual. Amazing how clear it is that horses don’t improve from the year before necessarily, probably as they have the GN in mind. Their strike rate can even go down, but 13/16 have less than 8%, most are pretty consistant. It is time to analsye this and look for any horses we may have overlooked.
#352
January 2nd, 2010 11:51
Looking at the top 12 on our table
First 2 figures are the place percentage at April 30th 2008, the other is of 31st Dec 2009
Niche Market 6/13 46% 7/16 44%
Church Island 13/25 52% 14/29 48%
Dream Alliance 5/10 50% 6/11 54%
Hello Bud 8/17 47% 9/21 43%
Gone To Lunch 7/9 78% 7/12 58%
Black Apalchi 8/23 35%
Trabolgan 5/7 71% 5/8 63%
Comply or Die 9/19 47%
Big Fella Thanks 5/7 71% 6/8 75%
My Will 20/28 71% 21/31 68%
Miko de Beauchene 5/12 42% 6/15 40%
Snowy Morning 10/18 56% 11/19 58%
#353
January 2nd, 2010 11:56
systems – I’ve got NM and BA slightly higher, i think you’re missing a couple of 4ths in 17+ runners races.
From the list though it will be interesting to see what weight SM and My Will get for Aintree. I wrote a few weeks back how similar Church Island’s profile was to Papillon and the place % also confirm that. Trabolgan could still be a dark horse though i feel
#354
January 2nd, 2010 11:57
Gone to lunch is the boobyjo, i mean bobbyjo of this group
#355
January 2nd, 2010 13:09
Win/place strike rates of last 16 runners up. Columns as previous post(sorry it’s 09-94 rather than the other way as in previous post)
Comply Or Die 53 47 44
King Johns Castle 50 56 64
McKelvey 67 54 54
Hedgehunter 75 69 73
Royal Auclair 41 50 52
Clan Royal 77 79 79
Supreme Glory 56 50 45
Whats Up Boys 83 75 60
Smarty 57 67 64
Mely Moss 78 78 78
Blue Charm 79 75 74
Suny Bay 70 69 64
Suny Bay 71 63 67
Encore Un Peu 40 40 63
Party Politics 48 57 54
Just So 34 34 38
Well, it’s only Just So that stands out here as hitting none of the % the winners achieved. For the record Just So had already been 6th in GN, placed five times at 32f or more(albeit mostly in not very high class races though was second in Eider)and unplaced in a couple of Midlands Nationals, a Welsh and a Scots Nat. Only Encore Un Peu and Royal Auclair of the rest failed to achieve all the % targets of the winners. Perhaps of interest they were trained by Martin Pipe and Paul Nicholls.
#356
January 2nd, 2010 13:32
Showlad reporting in – Sah!! Before I had to focus on other things, at the point I went off we were defining the general concensus ‘check list’ to find the 2010 winner. Can someone post up that list please. I knew we were aiming to leaving no creditable stone unturned but leaving out silly personal prefs eg French breds, Greys, unplaced but finished last time etc. leaving those to add incorporate into our own prefs.
So if someone could please post me up the team’s definitive check list. Thanks. PS if we haven’t defined this absolutely yet then high time we got on with it and did so on here. Over and out – Sah!
#357
January 2nd, 2010 13:54
TC, all win/place strike rates quoted by me are 1st,2nd,3rd.
Don’t want this to turn into an X v Y scenario on our leader board. What I want to do is identify is, say, 3 or 4 with strong trends/stats by Saturday March 27th(no GN winner has ran within 2 weeks of the race since the 60′s) and then maybe throw in 1 with a bit of class who maybe doesn’t quite meet all of the stats.
I haven’t had a bet yet. Might have a dabble before weights day though I agree with Pablo there is value even right up to the day of the race. Church Island is No1 on my list but only because if GN was tomorrow he hits the bullseye. OR128 would finish it for me, well he wouldn’t make the cut anyway, 143 is probably his Irish rating is it not so may be handicapper might nudge him up to say OR139/140 to get him in the race?
Shame Sandown was abandoned today. Was looking forward to seeing Trabolgan. So Snowy (there is a ‘Tin Tin’ film in production for 2010!) Morning has his top4 chase place this season. Could Mr Mullins tempt Mr Walsh?
#358
January 2nd, 2010 14:11
I’ve got a feeling that something will appear from somewhere and surprise us all. Also feel that Snowy Morning could do really well again; horse that was once thought of as Gold Cup class, coming down the weights because his jumping lets him down, but manages to negotiate the Aintree fences. Very enigmatic. Also the Gordon Elliott factor. Gungadu anyone?
#359
January 2nd, 2010 15:02
So, no new stats then.
What can I say, what a difference a year makes, we are all now s/r mad, well maybe not all.
This is the first stat I use when looking at National runners but like all stats – wt; age or 49 days last prep run etc – you never know when they will let you down. Last years donkey wasn’t much of a test but Niche Market with his CV will be a cracker of a test. As I said before it would take a brave man not to back him.
Crisp ’73, re:Church Island.
Check out his L/S/R – say no more.
#360
January 2nd, 2010 15:08
Bindaree is the only winner since 1990 not to have won a handicap chase (top 5 Hennessy and 3rd in Welsh National during winning season; 4th in Topham year before)
Horse; handicap chase runs; handicap chase wins; best h’cap chase prize won (according to RP records)
Mr Frisk – 13 – 4 – £13K
Seagram – 26 – 9 – £29K
Party Politics – 7 – 2 – £7K
Miinnehoma – 4 – 1 – £5K
Royal Athlete – 7 – 1 – £7K
Rough Quest – 16 – 3 – £32K
Lord Gyllene – 7 – 3 – £24K
Earth Summit – 15 – 4 – £30K
Bobbyjo – 12 – 4 – £68K
Papillon – 14 – 4 – £17K
Red Marauder – 12 – 4 – £29K
Bindaree – 6 – 0 –
Monty’s Pass – 31 – 6 – £51K
Amberleigh House – 24 – 3 – £29K
Hedgehunter – 6 – 2 – £34K
Numbersixvalverde – 6 – 3 – £100K
Silver Birch – 8 – 3 – £58K
Comply Or Die – 8 – 1 – £30K
Mon Mome – 21 – 3 – £57K
Here’s how our list compares – haven’t drawn any conclusions yet:
Score & horse; handicap chase runs; handicap chase wins; best h’cap chase prize won; best h’cap chase class win
40 Niche Market – 6 – 2 – £136k – 1
29 Church Island – 15 – 1 – £16k – 2
28 Dream Alliance – 6 – 2 – £57k – 1
26 Hello Bud – 17 – 7 – £114k – 1
21 Gone To Lunch – 4 – 0 – –
17 Black Apalachi – 19 – 2 – £77k – 1
11 Comply Or Die – 13 – 2 – £450k – 2
10 Trabolgan – 3 – 1 – £71k – 1
10 Big Fella Thanks – 4 – 1 – £48k – 1
10 My Will – 12 – 1 – £34k – 1
9 Snowy Morning – 4 – 0 – –
8 Miko De Beauchene – 8 – 2 – £71k – 1
6 Don’t Push It – 5 – 1 – £43k – 2
6 Siegemaster – 1 – 0 – –
6 Parson’s Legacy – 22 – 3 – £39k – 1
6 Arbor Supreme – 8 – 2 – £23k – 1
5 War Of Attrition – 1 – 0 – –
5 Character Building – 8 – 1 – £36k – 2
5 Possol – 5 – 1 – £31k – 2
4 Casey Jones – 0 – 0 – –
3 Backstage – 3 – 2 – £31k – 2
2 Cane Brake – 9 – 2 – £74k – 1
2 Jass – 8 – 2 – £15k – 2
2 Over The Creek – 2 – 1 – £57k – 1
1 Mr Pointment – 6 – 1 – £57k – 1
#361
January 2nd, 2010 15:45
COD should be Class 1 not Class 2
#362
January 2nd, 2010 15:48
…in second list as he has obviously won the GN
#363
January 2nd, 2010 16:26
Looks like Notre Pere is going to be entered for the National .. does anyone know his OR and could that potentially change a few things ?.. looks like he ran off 167 in Ireland last time out – if he runs would he possibly given say the same weight as Mon Mome ? compressed from 167 to 161 ? any more and it might help the likes of dream alliance and niche market who could be hovering on the 11 stone marker
#364
January 2nd, 2010 16:32
Notre Pere is now rated 158 i think, another poor run in the irish hennessy could see him drop to a nice mark, with the hope he returns to some form in April
#365
January 2nd, 2010 16:33
Total class act though soft or at very least good/soft a must.
OR is down to 157. TS is a whacking 172 with RPR way up at 173. Stable not worried about weight and says he will relish long trip…
#366
January 2nd, 2010 17:11
Notre Pere’s Irish OR is down by 4lb to 163
He won Welsh off 152 last season
His GN mark last year was to have been 160
His Irish National mark was to have been 161
His Scottish National mark was to have been 163
RP says 158 but BHA do not give a rating
Beware because his trainer has a habit of pulling this horse out at the last minute (AP punter’s nightmare) – which might have an impact on the whole shape of the race
#367
January 2nd, 2010 18:23
“crisp 73 says:
January 2, 2010 at 1:54 PM
TC, all win/place strike rates quoted by me are 1st,2nd,3rd”
For my reserch and future study is the 1/2/3 the offcial strike rate for the trend we are using (which I have been using in my own charts)or do we count 4th place sometimes?
#368
January 2nd, 2010 18:36
If you go down that road of fourth in handicaps of sixteen or more then you also be looking at first two in fields of less than eight. A flat three is constant.
#369
January 2nd, 2010 18:53
I did use 4ths as place material for the stats i put up in 17+ runner contests. Both CI and NM have done that in pretty major races (NH chase and Irish Nat). I didnt however looked at the chases, where there was less than 8 runners so they might be slightly out. Probably best stick with first 3. If we use just first 3 in all contests then NM would look quite weak on that stat
#370
January 2nd, 2010 19:59
Of the more exposed handicappers to have won GN since 1990 (run in 12 handicaps or more) each and every winner has won at least 3 handicap chases
Horses in our list with 12 or more handicap runs:
Score & horse; handicap chase runs; handicap chase wins
29 Church Island – 15 – 1
26 Hello Bud – 17 – 7
17 Black Apalachi – 19 – 2
11 Comply Or Die – 13 – 2
10 My Will – 12 – 1
6 Parson’s Legacy – 22 – 3
On this statistic only Hello Bud & Parson’s Legacy from the our list would match previous winners
#371
January 2nd, 2010 20:24
Back to basics. I did this list a few weeks ago, so I might have a few wrong and some horses might still make the list (3×24+ with 1/28+)
Using oddschecker’s GN betting list and the 30/30 stat – 5th Hennessy etc. If the stat holds then the winner should be on the list.
Niche Market
Blach Apalachi
Comply Or Die
Vic Venturi
State Of Play
Hello Bud
Dream Alliance
Mon Mome
Character Building
Notre Pere
Nine De Sivola
Garde Champetre
Silver By Nature
Gone To Lunch
My Will
Irish Raptor
Butlers Cabin
Rambling Minster
Parsons Legacy
Oodachee
Silver Birch
Kilbeggan Blade
L’ami
Merigo
Miko De Beauchene
Trabolgan
Over The Creek
Church Island
Flintoff
Iris De Balme
Cornish Sett
L’Aventure
Himalayan Trail
Air Force One
Mr Pointment
Brooklyn Brownie
#372
January 2nd, 2010 20:39
Wonder how much more there is to come from a back in form L’Aventure. Been put back up to a mark of 131
#373
January 2nd, 2010 20:47
Every winner since 1990 had run in at least 6 handicap chases prior to victory except Miinnehoma (4 including one victory and a 3rd in Welsh National)
The following horses from our list have less than 6 runs in handicaps to date (can change):
Score & horse; handicap chase runs; handicap chase wins
21 Gone To Lunch – 4 – 0
10 Trabolgan – 3 – 1
10 Big Fella Thanks – 4 – 1
9 Snowy Morning – 4 – 0
6 Don’t Push It – 5 – 1
6 Siegemaster – 1 – 0
5 War Of Attrition – 1 – 0
5 Possol – 5 – 1
4 Casey Jones – 0 – 0
3 Backstage – 3 – 2
2 Over The Creek – 2 – 1
This stat would not favour Siegemaster, War Of Attrition or Casey Jones in particular
#374
January 2nd, 2010 20:53
miinnehoma great llst and i am also sure the 2010 winner is there. So we have a starting list of 0f 36.
Now what happens if we take out all on a OR of 152 (the likely 11.01 if MM is OR 161 on 11.10. 11.01 was the top weight for the last 15 years)and all under OR 136 (in the last 15 years Bindaree was the lowest OR on 136 – this year wold likly give you 9.13 so will carry 10.00). Who is left and how many now?
I could work it out but I know one or two have spred sheets out there that may be able to help faster than I can. I am working on something similar but different for my “probability chart/forcast” when the new post xmas OR’s are out.
#375
January 2nd, 2010 20:57
I don’t think L’aventure will get in. He didn’t cover himself in glory the only other time he ran in the National but, if he did get in, I believe he could go well if conditions were testing.
#376
January 2nd, 2010 21:01
Fabuolous bit of work Minnehoma . To be honesat the top5 henessy ete etc stat is the strongest of them all – heres my own thoughts assuming mon mome runs
Niche Market – ok
Blach Apalachi – remove will carry more than 11-1
Comply Or Die – remove will carry more than 11-1
Vic Venturi – remove will carry more than 11-1
State Of Play – wil prob not get to 4-6 runs
Hello Bud – ok
Dream Alliance -ok
Mon Mome – remove will carry more than 11-1
Character Building – not ran yet – wont have enough runs
Notre Pere – remove will carry more than 11-1
Nine De Sivola – not ran yet
Garde Champetre – probably wont run
Silver By Nature – unlikely to run fairyhouse bound
Gone To Lunch – ok
My Will – ok
Irish Raptor – wont stay
Butlers Cabin – not ran yet
Rambling Minster – hated it last year . wont run
Parsons Legacy – ok
Oodachee – probably wont get in
Silver Birch – too old now
Kilbeggan Blade – not good enough
L’ami – fell and pulled up so far in nat – doesnt look good enough
Merigo – not good enough
Miko De Beauchene – ok
Trabolgan – ok
Over The Creek – ok
Church Island -ok
Flintoff – ?? – i cant work this horse out
Iris De Balme – not ran yet
Cornish Sett – not good enough
L’Aventure – not good enough
Himalayan Trail – not good enough
Air Force One – remove will carry more than 11-1
Mr Pointment – not ran yet
Brooklyn Brownie – not good enough
This would leave
Niche Market – ok – 3 runs
Hello Bud – ok – 4 runs
Dream Alliance -ok – 2 runs
Gone To Lunch – ok – 3 runs
My Will – ok – 3 runs
Parsons Legacy – ok – 2 runs
Miko De Beauchene – ok
Trabolgan – ok – 1 run
Over The Creek – ok – 1 run
Church Island – 5 runs
If we then remove those horses with only run so far as its highly unlikely they;ll get to the magic 4-6 runs , especially with the weather being as it has .. that leaves
I would suggest that theres a very high likelihood the winner of the 2010 aintree national will come from one of the final 8 below
Niche Market – ok – 3 runs
Hello Bud – ok – 4 runs
Dream Alliance -ok – 2 runs
Gone To Lunch – ok – 3 runs
My Will – ok – 3 runs
Parsons Legacy – ok – 2 runs
Miko De Beauchene – ok – 4 runs
Church Island – 5 runs
#377
January 2nd, 2010 21:10
Nice list Pablo and wonderful work.
So those with 4/5 handicap chases may (or may not) still get to the target of six handicap chase runs.
6 Don’t Push It – 5 – 1
21 Gone To Lunch – 4 – 0 (another worrying factor)
10 Big Fella Thanks – 4 – 1
9 Snowy Morning – 4 – 0
Those on 3 will find it a lot harder (but still just possible):
10 Trabolgan – 3 – 1
3 Backstage – 3 – 2
Those on 0 to 2 you can forget – they wont win the GN 2010!
2 Over The Creek – 2 – 1
6 Siegemaster – 1 – 0
5 War Of Attrition – 1 – 0
4 Casey Jones – 0 – 0 (Casey Jones fans take note)
Anyway thats how I see it.
Pablo: Has anyone won the GN in the last 20/15 years without winning a handicap Chase (you gave the figure for those with 12 runs or more but what about the others)?
Hello Bud looking better every day (26 Hello Bud – 17 – 7). I think he’s my No 1 now and secretly always has been – the Church Island fans won me over for a while (but still looks OK if running of OR143 or threabouts but 29 Church Island – 15 – 1 (not 3 wins) rings a small warning bell for me).
#378
January 2nd, 2010 21:16
Systemsman
Bindaree is the only winner since 1990 not to have won a handicap chase (top 5 Hennessy and 3rd in Welsh National during winning season; 4th in Topham year before)
Full list in post number 6 on this page
#379
January 2nd, 2010 21:23
Silver Birch I totely concur:
The winner of the 2010 GN is probaly in your short list of only 8:
Niche Market – ok – 3 runs
Hello Bud – ok – 4 runs
Dream Alliance -ok – 2 runs
Gone To Lunch – ok – 3 runs
My Will – ok – 3 runs
Parsons Legacy – ok – 2 runs
Miko De Beauchene – ok – 4 runs
Church Island – 5 runs
The work I have done so far on my probabilty chart/forcast will also confirm this and reaches the same conclusion subject to new post xmas OR’s not changing too much. I would also allow for the odd winner of a big race to come into the reckoning (probably no more than one).
I think I have 5 from your six in my own fisrt short list of six so I am happy (if we are right that is). I had Arbor Supreme instead of Miko De Beauchene for the Jan 1st list(but MDB deserves to be there now)
#380
January 2nd, 2010 21:23
Win/place strike rates of last 16 ’3rd placed’ in GN
My Will 76 73 70
Snowy Morning 83 71 78
Slim Pickings 67 70 54
Clan Royal 75 75 75
Simply Gifted 67 59 58
Lord Atterbury 100 100 75
Amberleigh House 39 48 45
Blowing Wind 69 69 63
Blowing Wind 57 56 75
Niki Dee 75 73 73
Call It A Day 74 68 68
Samlee 73 75 76
Camelot Knight 58 58 55
Superior Finish 55 59 58
Over The Road 53 55 51
Moorcroft Boy 50 75 73
#381
January 2nd, 2010 21:24
systems – from that 8, a few faults with some statswise
Niche Market – place % too low
Hello Bud – needs to correct his RPR-OR which is +3 at the moment
Dream Alliance
Gone To Lunch – doubt he’ll head to the national
My Will – no win in last 10 runs
Parsons Legacy – doubt he’ll head to the national
Miko De Beauchene – Place % too low
Church Island
Dont want to sound biased, at the moment CI is my number one if he gets there. I can’t see any fault with him stats wise, other than the statistics just been put up. Not too sure thats a worry as he consistently performed well in the major races he’s taken part in last year. HB needs to put in another career best before the national, has Twister held him back slightly? Worth keeping an eye on Trabolgan also i think
#382
January 2nd, 2010 21:29
Looking at these win place s/r % figures the chances of horses such as Niche Market,38%, Black Apalachi,30%, Miko De Beauchene,34% of even making even the first three, never mind winning, seem remote.
#383
January 2nd, 2010 21:31
I don’t personally believe that the contenders need to have run in a set number of handicap chases. However, from Silver Birch’s shortlist of 8 I’ve looked at how many times each of them have being doing good work at the end (ran on/stayed on etc) of each of their chases at 3m+:
Niche Market: 6/15 (40%)
Hello Bud: 7/14 (50%)
Dream Alliance: 4/10 (40%)
Gone to Lunch: 7/11 (64%)
My Will: 6/17 (35%)
Parsons Legacy: 9/19 (47%)
Miko de Beauchene: 6/15 (40%)
Church Island: 6/20 (30%)
#384
January 2nd, 2010 21:42
Crisp you are aware that when blowing wind was third in red marauder/mely moss year, he was actually renounted and blowing wind and Papillon kept each other company. Only racing after they both jumped the last. This probably wont effect your overall picture but thought I just mention it.
#385
January 2nd, 2010 21:47
Pablo, Systemsman. Don’t forget we’ve had 5/30 GN winners in the last 30 years with a number of prep runs- 1st September to GN day- outside the most common 4-6 prep runs; Aldaniti 11 yr old/ 1 prep, Last Suspect 11/ 3 preps, Little Polveir 12/ 8 preps, Seagram 11/ 7 preps, Miinnehoma 11/ 2 preps. 4-6 is highly probable, not 100%.
#386
January 2nd, 2010 21:52
My shortlist of 4 (alphabetical order) if the race was run tomorrow:
Cane Brake (potentially thrown in off 150 on handicap form winning Troytown & Paddy Power and his Gold Cup run – needs a good run over fences first)
Dream Alliance (looks too good to be true on Welsh & Hennessy form but what will his OR be? Needs a hurdles prep or ideally two – pretty much has to be on shortlist if weight is right)
Niche Market (looks too good to leave off the short-list after Irish & Hennessy runs but what will his OR be – will the handicapper mess him about? Needs a break and then a prep or two and all systems go – excellent recent handicap form)
Miko De Beauchene (encouraging run in Welsh National (and previous winner of Welsh and Haydock GN Trial) and his very best form is on GS – so not the soft-ground slow boat I though he was – and with one of the best trainers around)
All are winners of at least two major handicaps (or one National and top 5 Hennessy)
The weights will play a big part…
#387
January 2nd, 2010 22:08
Anyone got any thoughts on Northern Alliance?
#388
January 2nd, 2010 22:31
Questions about Northern Alliance’s stamina.
#389
January 2nd, 2010 22:33
Crisp – point taken about # runs from 1st September
I don’t rule a horse out for any trend or stat missed – will just add up points awarded and back top 3 (or equal) – then also back the one I fancy most strongly (if not on top 3 list)
#390
January 2nd, 2010 22:33
Yep, but then again he’s only run once at 3m and won, staying on to beach Church Island. Won’t be backing him now but may take notice nearer the time if trainer enters him
#391
January 2nd, 2010 22:39
TC I agree there are faults with the short list of 8 but so are they with almost all others (no Rambo factor this year!). Of all the key trends I suspect the OR/RPR gap is the most suspect so I am not too worried about Hello Bud who does have time to show us what he is made off after the weights are out.
For me rather than the OR/RPR gap of at least 5 I would rather rely on a 1/2/3 in any type of race this season (15/15 at least). Most should already have this by Jan 1st (12/15)
So these need 1/2/3 by GN day.
Gone To Lunch
Parsons Legacy
Miko de Beauchene
The other five are stronger bets at this stage:
Niche Market – ok – 3 runs
Hello Bud – ok – 4 runs
Dream Alliance -ok – 2 runs
My Will – ok – 3 runs
Church Island – 5 runs
#392
January 2nd, 2010 22:39
I used to count 24 furlongs too as minimum distance required but now take 26 furlongs. Ps also better if in top class company.
#393
January 2nd, 2010 23:08
Tony Martin ruled out the national for Northern Alliance straight after his Kerry National win saying that 3 miles is the furthest he will get
#394
January 2nd, 2010 23:23
Well done everybody, some mighty new work, now we are cooking.
#395
January 2nd, 2010 23:46
Great work team. Think we really need to steer away from too much dogmatism – let’s keep open mind.
Number of prep runs is a big one to have some flexibility on – the prep runs across the board will be down because of the weather.
#396
January 2nd, 2010 23:56
how strongly are we looking at Dosage figures. I’m not too sure of them for the national, but if they are to be followed, it would give these not much of a chance as they would have too much pace in their profile
Hello Bud
Parsons Legacy
Trabolgan – borderline
Character Building
Big Fella Thanks
Don’t Push It
Flintoff – borderline
#397
January 3rd, 2010 02:07
was just wondering if anyone could explain the 30/30 stat to me – what exactly is this stat guys??
#398
January 3rd, 2010 12:09
“Speedyseagull – I don’t personally believe that the contenders need to have run in a set number of handicap chases.”
It’s not the # runs I’m interested in but the level of performance – it may be a coincidence that 18/19 have run in at least 6 handicap chases
Take the past 7 winners, for example, who had shown at least 2 pieces of very good handicap form:
2003 Monty’s Pass – won Kerry National, 2nd Topham
2004 Amberleigh House – won Becher, 2nd Becher, 3rd GN
2005 Hedgehunter – won Thyestes, 4th Hennessy, 3rd Welsh
2006 Numbersixvalverde – won Thyestes, won Irish National
2007 Silver Birch – won Welsh National, won Becher
2008 Comply Or Die – won Eider, 4th Hennessy
2009 Mon Mome – won Cheltenham Listed (£57k) Handicap, 2nd Welsh
Bindaree was 0/7 in handicaps but was never worse than 7th and 6 of his handicaps runs were in famous races in the 12 months prior to his victory:
4th Topham
7th Paddy Power
5th Hennessy
3rd Tommy Whittle
3rd Welsh National
7th William Hill
For me, evidence of handicap form is very important – this is partly taken care of by the “key race” stat – and the last 7 GN winners had won at least one big handicap
It wouldn’t call this a core stat but I will use to influence my stakes come race day
#399
January 3rd, 2010 12:30
Miinnehoma had only run in 4 handicaps (might not mean anything – I’m not sure) but was a winner of the RSA for Novices at the Cheltenham festival
The only two horses to have won the Hennessy since 1989 without a run in a handicap were Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) – both were winners of the RSA and won the Hennessy off top weight
The RSA is an example of a championship conditions race that is usually very competitive and run at an honest pace (the Gold Cup is usually similar) – so perhaps form in the RSA can be translated to handicaps – generally form in conditions races needs to be scrutinised more carefully (small fields, tactical races, inexperienced Novices, horses running 20lb wrong compared with handicap marks etc)
COD came 2nd to Trabolgan in the RSA and 4th behind him in the Hennessy
Might be something there – just throwing it in for discussion…
#400
January 3rd, 2010 13:19
You make a good argument Pablo! I guess we can also include McKelvey, who probably would have won if hadn’t gone lame. He had won a listed Summer National and ran well in Becher Chase, staying on at the end
Oh, Leeds have just scored – Amusing!
#401
January 3rd, 2010 14:27
Yes Pablo, your research confirms the fact that we’re looking for a classy animal that performs to his best in handicap company. There’s bags of class in Systems 8 but I too can’t discount Trabolgan. Was running off OR 151 in 2005 before taking 06, 07 & most of 08 off (anyone know why?). Now off a mark of 138 so may be thrown in if returning to any kind of form. However, reading the comments on his last run, hit & blundered were used several times so jumping will need to improve. Very lightly raced for a 12 year old.
#402
January 3rd, 2010 14:34
By the way Pablo, I remember your list last year (every winner had 31 points minimum since 1990) and like most it didn’t include Mon Mome. Was MM discounted because of the crazy odds?
#403
January 3rd, 2010 14:36
I thought it was a good effort from Trabolgan at Cheltenham considering his long absence. He did shape up well coming down the hill and looked as if he could win, he just lacked the fitness maybe, of the front 3. If he can return to any sort of form in his next couple of runs, he could have a good chance.
Anyone see the Sussex national – looks as if Master Overseer is improving all the time under David Pipe, still only 7.
#404
January 3rd, 2010 15:07
I agree Trabolgan ran well last time, seems to be on course as the classy comeback one to watch. Can’t remember the blunder in last race, would be interesting to view, if you look at his record the words hit and blundered are regularly there, but often didn’t stop him pulling away to win beating good company! will aintree fences be a different matter tho?
#405
January 3rd, 2010 15:15
ThaiMark – yes I have amended my points to exclude points for price (I don’t know why I used it last year – I never use price as a reason not to back a horse in any other handicap).
Also I give the benefit of the doubt on breeding to anything with under 10 dosage points (Mr Frisk, Royal Athlete, Red Marauder, Bindaree & Mon Mome all had < 10 dosage points – which I believe is inconclusive).
Apart from that I award 2 points for matching a key trend (1 point for a near miss on something like # runs) and 0 points for missing a trend completely.
Then add up and back top 3 (or equal 3rd).
I think we all agree on most of the trends/stats but I don’t think we will ever get agreement on a points system or indeed on all the trends/stats.
#406
January 3rd, 2010 15:36
TC it shocks me that Hello Bud has too much speed in his dosage, doesn’t seem to have converted this into a kick of speed at the end of his races, like the other horses in your speedy dosage list above, that is interesting. HB is a headache for me such a national type, finishing speed not enough, recent results tailing off a worry? but its what he did last term right! he’s definately up there, like I said could win if he runs them into the ground.
#407
January 3rd, 2010 15:55
i Wouldnt rule HB on his dosage pedigree yet, although it would suggest he’ll need ground similar to the Scottish national to win. There is every chance Twister could have left a bit more to work on with him, but he would have to put in a very good performance after weights are out to push his RPR up
#408
January 3rd, 2010 17:17
Pablo are you able to tell us what key trends you use for your scores?
Re: Mon Mome we have to remember he was 33/1 on weights day so looking at the price on weights day its still worth while (I will post on this the day after weights day). Its unlikely the winner will be priced over 40/1 (or 50/1 if you want to play ultra safe)in the bookies list (they dont list them all) quoted by the RP on weights day.
#409
January 3rd, 2010 17:20
TC: Re: HB
“but he would have to put in a very good performance after weights are out to push his RPR up”
While I am is biggest fan I agree that I would like to see a very good run after weights are oout and a new higher RPR for the run.
#410
January 3rd, 2010 17:55
How good a trial is the Scottish national for the Grand national?
Using the top 3 statistic from 1991-2008, there are 54 potential national candidates. Only 23 have ran in the national after finishing in the top 3 at Ayr though
The 23 runners have had a combined 34 attempts at the Grand national
21/34 did not complete the national
Of the 13 completed runs only 5 of them finished in the first 4 at Aintree
4/5 already had form in a key race before the grand national though (Earth summit & Supreme Glory won welsh nat, samlee & over the road were 3rd in welsh nat) – the one that didn’t was Superior Finish in ’94 who was quite a distant 3rd
This doesn’t bode well for Hello Bud or Gone To Lunch. It looks as if the quickness of the ground at Ayr in recent years does not suit a potential national winner
#411
January 3rd, 2010 18:14
This was my question not long after scottish national. Don’t know any which won scottish first then won Aintree without a number of seasons passing between the two events. However Gone To Lunch Hennessy run was very encouraging. His run in the welsh national can be forgiven as he didn’t like the going.
#412
January 3rd, 2010 18:32
Hello Bud. Just to recap. He has good stats/key race profile. Has achieved win-place s/r % of previous winners, also scores well on Pablo’s handicap chase runs-wins profile. Seems to have two negatives.
His best RPR145 > OR142 figure, which of course is only 3. (16/16 RPR > OR has been 7 or more. The last winner to have less than 7 was Party Politics who had an OR in the 150′s) Unless his OR drops considerably he needs to run a RPR 149. (The only recent winners who had best RPR’s in the 140′s were racing off OR’s in the 130′s) Is he capable of running RPR149?
Second negative is his dosage. It’s 60% speed -40% stamina. Post 1989 no horse had more than 54% speed (Hedgehunter, 54-46) with the only other winner with more speed than stamina was Earth Summit (53-47). Hello Bud’s Scots Nat win, 33f where he dictated the pace on good ground was 13 seconds slower than standard; 28f Wincanton win (prior to Scots Nat) dictated the pace, good to firm, 22 seconds slower than standard; 28f win at Fontwell a year ago, good to soft, dictated the pace was 30 seconds slower than standard; 31f at Hexham 21 months ago, soft, 99 seconds slower than standard. If Hello Bud was to win GN I reckon he would need either need soft or worse going (which he has won on) or a slowish run race on good ground as not to expose his top heavy speed-stamina ratio.
#413
January 3rd, 2010 19:06
Scots National runners from TC’s stats = 21/34 did not complete, which means that 13/34 did = 38%
37% of all runners have completed since 1990
No matter how good a horse is he/she can get hampered (Mon Mome), brought down, carried out (Clan Royal), unseat its rider, hate the track, fall (Hedgehunter) etc – so that 38% is fine and in line
Of the 269 finishers since 1990 76 filled the top 4 in those 19 GNs = 28%
19/269 GN finishers won = 7%
5/13 Scots Nat 1/2/3 placed top 4 = 38%
1/13 Scots Nat 1/2/3 won = 8%
So on the face of it the Scots Nat is not a ‘negative’ trial – same finishers as average, more places, same win ratio …but clearly not a ‘good’ trial either
Would be interesting to compare the other trials – but quite time-consuming I would imagine
#414
January 3rd, 2010 19:20
Was a little time consuming, but the point i was trying to make is that only one horse in the last 18 years to finish top 3 in the Scottish national also finished in the top 4 at Aintree. Of the other 4 that also placed at Aintree and Scottish national, they all had another of the key race stats to their names. So only 1/23 placed at Aintree which is not a great strike rate.
I’m not going to dismiss the Scottish national as a key race but the problem for me in more recent years is the ground, is a national winner suited to the firmer ground in the scottish national?
#415
January 3rd, 2010 19:38
crisp 73
Re: HB “Second negative is his dosage. It’s 60% speed -40% stamina. Post 1989 no horse had more than 54% speed (Hedgehunter, 54-46) with the only other winner with more speed than stamina was Earth Summit (53-47).”
I no nothing about how to assess dosage. Has anyone got the Speed/stamina % for the 25 horses on our hit list – i would find it very useful in sorting out some sort of order for my top ten.
#416
January 3rd, 2010 20:00
systems – best way to look at that, is to go to pedigreequery.com and look at previous national winner profiles and compare this years national hopefuls
I would put a table up, but can’t seem to do that on here
#417
January 3rd, 2010 20:05
TC – I have done the same for Hennessy
47 horses since 1989 top 5 in Hennessy have run in GN
77 runs in GN
37 finishers = 48% (vs 38% completions SN; 37% completions all runners)
20 placed in top 4 / 37 finishers = 52% (vs 38% SN; 28% all runners)
8 winners / 37 finishers = 22% (vs 8% SN; 7% all runners)
Or even if keep it simple:
Group; # runners; % placed top4; % wins
All runners since 1990; 720; 11%; 3 %
SN top 3 since 1991; 34; 15%; 3%
Hennessy since 1989; 77; 26%; 10%
Hennessy looks a significantly better trial than SN – but we kind of knew that anyway – better horses (more RSA runners) etc
Don’t have time to do Welsh National – might do later in the week
#418
January 3rd, 2010 20:13
it does look as if the horses to have run well in the Scottish national also performed well in the welsh national later in the year. I know HB was unlucky to unseat in the welsh national but he was going backwards at that time. I suspect that the best trials are the welsh/Irish national, hennessy and the becher.
Stats page please
#419
January 3rd, 2010 20:34
When looking at Irish form, is there any direct comparison between Irish race gradings and those in the UK? For example, does a 20k at Punchestown equate to a class 2 or class 3 race in UK?
#420
January 3rd, 2010 20:39
Sorry to say but Hello Bud’s s/r up to 31st. Dec. is below the min. 45%.
#421
January 3rd, 2010 23:00
Group; # runners; % placed top 4; % wins
All runners since 1990; 720; 11%; 3 %
SN top 3 since 1991; 34; 15%; 3%
Hennessy since 1989; 76; 26%; 11%
Welsh since 1989; 52; 23%; 13%
6 horses have top 5 Hennessy AND top 3 Welsh (not necessarily in same seaon or GN winning season):
Party Politics (both in GN winning season)
Earth Summit (top 5 Hennessy; injured then won Welsh before GN)
Fiddling The Facts
Earthmover
Bindaree (both in GN winning season)
Hedgehunter (both season before won GN)
4/6 have won the GN!!
This year we have one I think with both and a similar pattern to Earth Summit… perhaps softish ground would help?
#422
January 3rd, 2010 23:19
TC took your advise to look up pedigreequery.com
But what does all this (below)mean in relation to speed/stamina %. I take it DI is something to do with it?
Dosage index speed/stamina
Dream Alliance
DREAM ALLIANCE (GB) ch. G, 2001 DP = 1-1-8-3-3 (16) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.38 – 21 Starts, 5 Wins, 4 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: £ 138,646
#423
January 3rd, 2010 23:38
DP = Dosage Profile
5 categories of influence from breeding: Brilliant (most speed), Intermediate (speedy), Classic (balanced), Solid (stamina) and Professional (most stamina)
For Dream Alliance 1 (Brilliant), 1 (Intermediate), 8 (Classic), 3 (Solid) and 3 (Professional)
Dosage Index = DI = 0.60 for Dream Alliance
A dosage index of 1 is the ideal balance of speed and stamina for a flat horse going for classics. For GN a DI of 1 or less is desirable.
CD = -.38 (Centre of Distribution) – this tells you where the balance lies between speed and stamina
Generally for GN purposes this is between 0 and -1 or in other words more stamina than speed. Speed is >0 and stamina is <0.
I think Crisp adds up Brilliant & Intermediate points to get speed points and Solid and Professional points to get stamina points.
In Dream Alliance’s case this is 2 speed and 6 stamina points or a ratio of 25% speed 75% stamina – or 25:75.
#424
January 3rd, 2010 23:40
Systemsman his Di and Cd are his speed to stamina ratio. If he was perfectly balanced then he have a Di of 1.00 and a Cd of 0.00 what your figures tell me is got more stamina than speed.
#425
January 3rd, 2010 23:44
DP = 1-1-8-3-3 (16)
The 16 is the number of dosage points (1+1+8+3+3)
I give any horse with <10 dosage points the benefit of the doubt and assume it will stay.
#426
January 3rd, 2010 23:45
Many thanks Pablo and Neil S it was so very helpful. I shall now g oaway and look up the last ten GN winners and compare with our top 25 (a whole new world has opened up for my research!). Looking at one or two already I think NM,GTL and DA look good while HB not so but I need to make up a table and report back – more work, its never ending but inteersting to say the least.
#427
January 3rd, 2010 23:46
Cheers Pablo, think i would have struggled to explain all that
Hopefully this link is useful also
http://www.thoroughbredchampions.com/dosage/index.htm
Using the figures since 1990, i’d suggest that any horse with less than dosage 10 points is inconclusive and shouldn’t be ruled out. That 3 of the last 19 winners
Looing at the other 16 who all have 10+ points, the following figures would cover the national winners
DI = 0.13-1.15
CD = -1.08-0.25
Hello Bud, Character Building and Parsons Legacy do not look good based on that
I prefer the trends for the national, but this is also another useful method
#428
January 3rd, 2010 23:53
Pablo, don’t you split the points in C in half and add to both sides that makes speed 1+1+4=6 and stamina 3+3+4=10. Making a speed to stamina ratio of
#429
January 3rd, 2010 23:57
30/30 stat 5th. Hen. etc.
Form Horse Age OR-RPR-T/S
-P3 Mon Mome10 160-166-155
-F54 Notre Pere9 158-173-172
- Air Force One8 158-165-155
-611 Garde Champetre10 156-160-144
- Black Apalachi11 155-164-138
-0 Comply Or Die11 154-160-157
-275 My Will10 150-166-157
-85P Gone To Lunch10 149-159-154
-P44 Miko De Beauch10 149-161-153
-835 Niche Market9 148-154-149
-115 Vic Venturi10 ?145-158-150
-P State Of Play10 145-165-160
- Character Build10 145-150-130
-735U Hello Bud12 142-145-129
-21 Dream Alliance9 142-157-142
- Iris De Balme10 141-154-115
-PC8 Cornish Sett11 141-150-145
- Mr Pointment11 141-163-124
-P Flintoff9 140-146-145
-6P9 Rambling Minst12 140-155-144
-50 Parsons Legacy12 139-153-141
-6C Silver Birch13 138-150-144
-53P Kilbeggan Blade11 137-145-124
-316 L’ami11 137-163-165
-4 Trabolgan12 137-168-157
-9 Brooklyn Brown11 137-143-140
-512 Silver By Nature8 136-149-136
- Nine De Sivola9 135-146-131
-4U5 Irish Raptor11 135-145-144
- Butlers Cabin10 135-147-139
- Oodachee11 135-142-141
-8 Over The Creek11 134-143-140
-7 Merigo9 131-143-133
-721 L’Aventure11 131-151-150
-254 Church Island11 128-150-148
-053 Himalayan Trail11 120-145-140
#430
January 3rd, 2010 23:59
Systemsman – to save you the trouble
Year ; Horse ; Brilliant ; Intermediate ; Classic ; Solid ; Professional ; Dosage Points ; DI ; CD
1990 ; Mr Frisk ; 1 ; 4 ; 3 ; 0 ; 0 ; 8 ; 4.33 ; 0.75
1991 ; Seagram ; 2 ; 0 ; 2 ; 12 ; 10 ; 26 ; 0.13 ; -1.08
1992 ; Party Politics ; 3 ; 2 ; 1 ; 12 ; 0 ; 18 ; 0.44 ; -0.22
1994 ; Miinnehoma ; 3 ; 2 ; 7 ; 8 ; 0 ; 20 ; 0.74 ; 0
1995 ; Royal Athlete ; ; ; ; ; ; 0 ; Inf ; Inf
1996 ; Rough Quest ; 0 ; 0 ; 6 ; 8 ; 6 ; 20 ; 0.18 ; -1
1997 ; Lord Gyllene ; 2 ; 0 ; 2 ; 4 ; 6 ; 14 ; 0.27 ; -0.86
1998 ; Earth Summit ; 3 ; 0 ; 11 ; 2 ; 0 ; 16 ; 1.13 ; 0.25
1999 ; Bobbyjo ; 5 ; 1 ; 4 ; 6 ; 4 ; 20 ; 0.67 ; -0.15
2000 ; Papillon ; 0 ; 1 ; 4 ; 1 ; 6 ; 12 ; 0.33 ; -1
2001 ; Red Marauder ; 5 ; 0 ; 1 ; 0 ; 0 ; 6 ; 11 ; 1.67
2002 ; Bindaree ; 1 ; 1 ; 3 ; 4 ; 1 ; 10 ; 0.54 ; -0.3
2003 ; Monty’s Pass ; 3 ; 4 ; 6 ; 0 ; 7 ; 20 ; 1 ; -0.2
2004 ; Amberleigh House ; 5 ; 1 ; 8 ; 2 ; 4 ; 20 ; 1 ; 0.05
2005 ; Hedgehunter ; 8 ; 3 ; 8 ; 2 ; 7 ; 28 ; 1.15 ; 0.11
2006 ; Numbersixvalverde ; 2 ; 0 ; 0 ; 6 ; 2 ; 10 ; 0.25 ; -0.6
2007 ; Silver Birch ; 2 ; 0 ; 4 ; 8 ; 6 ; 20 ; 0.25 ; -0.8
2008 ; Comply Or Die ; 2 ; 0 ; 6 ; 4 ; 0 ; 12 ; 0.71 ; 0
2009 ; Mon Mome ; 1 ; 1 ; 2 ; 0 ; 0 ; 4 ; 3 ; 0.75
#431
January 4th, 2010 00:06
37.5 to 62.5 ratio of speed to stamina (continuing my last post). Ben’s Book has the fifteen winners dosage although not an exact science he says 83 percent of winners fall in the range of 0.18 to 1.00 with their DI and 75 percent of winners fall in the range of -1.00 and 0.00 with their CD. More details can be found in his book or his web site.
#432
January 4th, 2010 06:29
Helohelo you’re quite right. Form is important and that’s why my horse is Niche Market. Look what’s come out from the Hennessy so far. Third in the King George (the only horse to have a chance with Kauto Star) and the winner of the Lexus. Plus the likeness of one of the Gold Cup first two.
#433
January 4th, 2010 07:46
SPs of last 3 winners?
100/1
7/1 fav
33/1
Good luck with backing everything below 20/1!
#434
January 4th, 2010 08:51
Helo Helo. So, Backstage. Wasn’t he beaten by nearly 30 lengths in that ‘top class’ Hunter chase over the GN fences last April? His dosage is 71% speed- 29% stamina. Are you making comparisons with Mon Mome, as he has the same sire? Well Mon Mome came 2nd in a Welsh National, 3rd in a Blue Square chase at Haydock, 4th in a William Hill Trophy chase at Chelt.Fest., 2nd in 29f C1 chase at Warwick and won a 57k C1 chase at Cheltenham but then again Backstage did destroy that C2 field at Ffos las in August.
#435
January 4th, 2010 09:04
Miinnehoma, you’re right of course. Hello Bud’s s/r is now 43%.
#436
January 4th, 2010 09:44
Not been about much the last week or so but it’s been very busy in my absence!
Not much that has happened over the Festive season has changed my opinions regarding the National so my top 6 list as as follows.
Niche Market – 6
Church Island – 5
War of Attrition – 4
Gone To Lunch – 3
Over The Creek – 2
Arbor Supreme – 1
Just a couple of observations: Dream Alliance has become popular after his gutsy Welsh National win. I have my concerns about his jumping as he seems to get very low over the obstacles. I can see him hitting the deck at Aintree.
Gone To Lunch did run a shocker in the Welsh National which is a bit of a concern but that run was too bad to be true and can be forgotten about I think. He either really didn’t act on the heavy ground or something was wrong with him.
Seigemaster ran a blinder in the Paddy Power and long term I do see him as a National horse. However, Dessie Hughes already has Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi that would be Aintree bound and as Seigemaster is only a second season chaser I think he could go for the Irish National this time around.
Can’t Buy Time walked up the hill in the 4-miler at Cheltenham and simply does not get the trip. Even Jonjo O’Neill said that he does not see him as a National horse.
#437
January 4th, 2010 09:59
How the form of previous 20 GN winners looked coming in to the New Year, top 4 chase, top3 hurdles/point to points, 0 unplaced. (hurdles/point to points in brackets)from 1st September;
Little Polveir, 1 0 2 4
Mr Frisk, 4 1 3 3
Seagram, 3 2 0 2
Party Politics, 2 2
Miinnehoma
Royal Athlete
Rough Quest, f 2 2
Lord Gyllene, 2 3 1
Earth Summit, 0 0 1
Bobbyjo, 0 0 0
Papillon, 0 0
Red Marauder, (1) 4 0 0
Bindaree, 0 0 3 3
Montys Pass, 1 3
Amberleigh House, (3) 0 2
Hedgehunter, (0 2 0 0)
Numbersixvalverde, (0 0) b
Silver Birch, (3)0
Comply Or Die, 0 p 2
Mon Mome, 2 1 0
It’s noticeable how all British trained winners had a top4 chase by 31st December but only 1, Monty’s, out of 6 Irish trained(Hedgehunter didn’t even run in a chase until weights were out). It has been mentioned on here before of course that those trainers of the Irish winners were targeting GN and conciously trying to keep OR’s down.
#438
January 4th, 2010 10:01
I’m also beginning to like DA, but i can’t see the handicapper letting him off lightly. He’s had 18 months where he hasnt seen a fence and goes on to win the welsh national. His RPR is now 157, but i wouldnt be surprised if he goes up 7lb+ for the WN win. I would like to see another couple of runs over fences also.
Quick question, Which national horse in the last 30 years has had so few completed chase starts (DA currently 8)?
I know Hedgehunter had 10 but he fell the previous year and turned out to be an incredible horse. I get the feeling the same thing could happen with DA
#439
January 4th, 2010 11:49
Who is this clown?
#440
January 4th, 2010 12:23
Backstage not ran since August and George Elliot has confirmed that he won’t go chasing until the Grand National its self! Elliot states that he will run him twice over hurdles before then.
Backstage has finished 9th at Aintree in the National meeting last year and third of three prior to that.
http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12426_5575704,00.html
#441
January 4th, 2010 12:32
Sorry I meant 8th not 9th
#442
January 4th, 2010 13:01
Backstage has been raised to a mark of 148 for winning that race at Ffos Las and putting in a couple of other decent efforts during the summer. There is little strength in depth in summer jumping in this country. Most horses running throughout the summer are doing so because they either want to hear their hooves rattle, or more often aren’t good enough to earn their keep during the winter when the “proper” NH season is in full flow. Getting a mark of 148 for beating a bunch of second-rate chasers and fast ground lovers looks a little harsh to me!
#443
January 4th, 2010 13:02
Pablo,TC,miinnehoma,Neil S, crisp 73 thanks for your recent work it has saved me hours of resaerch. And what a team a “GN 2010 winning team”!!
helohelo you