Grand National 2010: Early Fancies
Posted on October 23rd, 2009 in Grand National 2010
Please give us your early views on the 2010 Grand National on this thread or if you have a strong view on a particular horse add the view to the thread for that horse.
(If the horse you want to discuss does not have a thread as yet please leave me a note and I will add as soon as I can – although with holidays etc this may take longer than normal)
Thank you
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This post has 294 comments
#1
June 8th, 2009 23:57
Thanks Admin for this page for early thoughts on the Grand National. Like I said about Tricky Trickster a bit young for the stats but what interested me was that Mc Cain was trying to purchase this horse as well as Nicholls. Dispite what Nicholls says I don’t think that he regards this as just another race.
#2
June 9th, 2009 14:54
For 2010 i like both Hello Bud and Irish Rapture both sure to be trained for the race, and trainer is N T Davis no stranger to Aintree sucess. I also like the early odds and have taken 50/1 on hello bud and 40s for irish rapture. Feel sure Black Apalache could be a big player in 2010 with very low odds on offer at present 25/1 is best available
#3
June 9th, 2009 16:40
would be surprised if Hello Bud runs in it, don’t fancy Irish Raptor until he proves a bit of stamina. The only 3 i would currently take on early would be the Irish National front two, and will also be keeping tabs on Mr Pointment
#4
June 9th, 2009 16:43
No horse stands out for me at the moment – list of about 30 possibilities – will wait for next season
#5
June 9th, 2009 18:06
southern vic
big fella thanks
flintoff
black app.
character building
are the ones for me at this early stage.
#6
June 10th, 2009 12:21
Hi folks – good to have a dedicated GN 2010 thread up and running for us to add our thoughts to.
As already noted by Pablo it’s far too early to have a reasoned assessment of the likely candidates, and picks at this point are little more than a bit of fun.
With horses returning from injury, early season performances, and potential weight increases from current marks to take into consideration huge amounts will change over the next 9 months.
That being said, some early contenders to be thrown into the ring (just for fun, mind):
Arbor Supreme, Russian Trigger, Niche Market, Character Building, Church Island, Irish Raptor, Trabolgan.
#7
June 10th, 2009 13:12
A New Story?
I fancied it for this year’s National about this time last year, but it didnt get entered in the end.
Seemed to be back to his best with his Irish National run. Definately a contender, if he lines up that is!!
#8
June 10th, 2009 14:10
I’d agree with all those Gammers
And one I like for the future (maybe 2010 GN at a big price) is Parson’s Pistol (too bad runs at Cheltenham but otherwise has some decent form against Irish Novices and a good handicap third to Arbor Supreme on only 4th chase start – should go on better ground too)
#9
June 10th, 2009 14:28
If National was tomorrow; Butler’s Cabin, Character Building, Church Island and Parsons Legacy fit all the stats apart from, obviously, what will be current form considerations next April.
Incidentally, good bets in other fields have been posted so here is another one that might be of interest.
I’ve seen Conservatives as much as 1/12 on to win next general election. So, what odds that they don’t get an overall majority or even Labour biggest party in hung parliament? The Conservatives only polled 36% in 2009 Europe elections just as they did in 2004. Labour had to come from a similar trailing position in 1997 and polled 44% in 1994 Europe elections.(Labour polled 37% in 1989 and lost general election in 1992)
#10
June 10th, 2009 18:30
Slight diversion but hope you dont mind me replying to Crips.
The Hung parliament bet looks very very tempting – not sure of the price. See my politics bets (investments) under “specials” on the OLBG web site (two bets so far suggested, one won and another also looks a sure winner).
Hope to post some early thoughts (just for fun)on the GN 2010 in the next ten days or so.
#11
June 10th, 2009 19:47
Good luck with politics bets
Didn’t fancy him for last year’s race at all but Butler’s Cabin is the only one that interests me at this stage
Former Irish National winner (Class 1 key race), won over 4m 1f too, 10 years old next year, but only lightly raced (16 chase starts), great strike rate in chases (5 wins and 4 thirds), only 1 chase fall, has GN experience and lots of big field experience at Grade 1 tracks (Aintree, Cheltenham and Fairyhouse)
Did really well to finish 7th (beaten 24 lengths) considering so badly out of form last year – hopefully handicapper will take the 24 lengths into account on weights day
Has the best profile of any contender I can find (ticks every box at this stage) and just needs to show that he’s in good form next Autumn – be watching this one very carefully
#12
June 10th, 2009 21:40
Interesting that Carl Llewellyn is going to work for NTD again [assistant trainer??]. A partnership to be taken very seriously imo. You’ve got to wonder, with Butlers Cabin needing oxygen all the time after races, how it’s going to affect him mentally [don't mean starved of oxygen, I mean phsychologically but can't spell it!].
#13
June 10th, 2009 22:48
Agree that Llewellyn & NTD will be ones to watch – but which horse? Butler’s always seems to need oxygen after long races – won the lrish National shortly after needing it at Cheltenham. Still plenty of time to change my mind…
#14
June 10th, 2009 23:19
One horse who won’t be there come April is Denman I’ve express what the connections could be feeling about the race on the bet 365 thread; but what about Madison Du Berlais the national could be right up his street, be on a flat track. Of course the owners and or trainer might not risk him. On the stats is he the correct age?
#15
June 11th, 2009 08:53
Hello all,
Good to see some NH discussion during the summer. This flat racing game just doesn’t do much for me.
As people have said, any talk of next April is speculative at the moment but in addition to those already mentioned, these are the ones i’ll be keeping an eye on:
Iris De Balme
Oodachee
Out The Black
Gone To Lunch
Seigemaster
I’m suprised that Gone To Lunch hasn’t been mentioned as yet. I know this will be his first season out of novice company but he already ticks a lot of the right boxes:
Won a class 1 chase (Gd2)
Won over 3m+
Form in key race and over 4m+ (1/2l 2nd in Scottish National under 11-10)
Won 3 of his 8 chases and placed in 4 of the others.
This horse has some top class form as well. He’s been 2nd in Grade One races over fences and hurdles.
#16
June 11th, 2009 09:53
Stayer – Gone to Lunch is on my list of horses that have placed in key races (RP Chase included) and tick most of the boxes at this stage (RPR 144+, won at 3m+, key race, 2 or less chase falls, strike rate >40%):
153: Gone To Lunch
151: Possol
150: Big Fella Thanks
146: Parsons Legacy
145: Character Building
144: Iris De Balme
143: Trabolgan
143: Lacdoudal
142: Cornish Sett
141: Church Island
141: Mr Pointment
140: Russian Trigger
140: Flintoff
135: Butlers Cabin (although GN rating was 147 last two GNs)
Thing that worries me about GTL is his rating of 153 – which would have meant carrying 11’5 last year (14lb above bottom weight)
A couple of others on my list have higher current ORs than Mon Mome (148) won with too – others will go higher if they win a race in the Autumn
Might be ok if better horses turn up and bottom OR is higher than last year though
Too many imponderables…
#17
June 11th, 2009 10:53
Hi everyone,
Great to see such a good response in the midst of all this flat racing – thanks very much for your continued support. Don’t forget, if you want a thread for any particular horse that we don’t have at the moment just give me a shout and we will see about putting something up. I am on leave next week so might be a delay if after the weekend.
I might open a thread up for Butlers Cabin as Crisp and Pablo have mentioned him as a horse they are potentially interested in – any thoughts?
#18
June 11th, 2009 16:07
Regarding Denman running. I genuinely think it’s a possibility depending on the form and rating of Big Fella Thanks. I feel Denman will run if Big Fella Thanks will be carrying a big weight around.
Gone off some of the good performers of the Scottish national due to the fact the ground there has been good-firm in recent times. Will still be watching them though. The welsh and Irish national top 3s have had most success in recent times
#19
June 11th, 2009 18:15
I’d really like Denman to show up because as I’ve stated before I’d like to see Madison Du Berlais cruise round Aintree again – this one could bust all the stats – and the potential line-up would be mouth-watering with COD and Mon Mome carrying < 11’0 – surely would take the race to a new dimension – a race to savour
#20
June 11th, 2009 18:32
Pablo this is assuming that Madison Du Berlais comes to the next season in the same form as the one just completed (touch wood).
I know that this season is already under way with summer jumps;but I still think that it doesn’t get interesting until around the Hennessy.
Looking for a summer star to emerge like Mckelvey did in 2007 but no luck yet
#21
June 11th, 2009 21:14
Interesting comments surrounding Butler’s. I’ll admit I’m not a big fan- as Maureen pointed out he seems to finish long distances distressed- but it’s not about personal preferences, he does fit stats and could well be on shortlist next April. As I noted earlier, on another thread, he did equal his best ever RPR in this year’s race and the handicapper had him 12lbs(OR 147) above his official rating.
#22
June 11th, 2009 21:21
NTD could have the 2010 in his yard- I think Hello Bud is the much, much the stronger ‘trend’ chance than poor win/place strike rate Irish Raptor. Good point made by TC about firm loving horses doing well at Ayr but very unlikely now to get that at Aintree. I believe Hello Bud is not ground dependent though I would like to see how he fares in another C1 chase before backing him.
#23
June 11th, 2009 22:41
I’d have to advice caution in backing anything yet. Even if the connections are seriously thinking of Aintree a lot can happen in the time frame. Usually though the best place to start is with last years hard luck stories. Was impress with Comply Or Die if he remained in good condition next april he might win with top weight.
#24
June 12th, 2009 09:56
I think I will have a cut off point for the pre Christmas short list of OR 150 (you do have to get down to a short list be excluding something at some stage)which is two points up on this years winner and 4 points above most winners for the last ten years (I was just two points out this year with my OR 148 cut off point – just my luck if the winner in 2010 was OR 151 or 152!! – I will ofcourse have a serious at these runners).
I should have this short list out by Dec 20th (or even a bit earlier – obviously we will need to adjust for the Welsh National later). No doubt Pablo/Crisp/The Stayer/Neil/Maureen and others will beat me to it this year as I can see that they are well on top of it and doing a great early job.
2010 is revenge year is it not – we want that money back dont we and we will have it back it we work together. Loved the voting chart last year hopes its back in 2010.
Hope to post some results about key races and OR v RPR’s some time soon.
#25
June 12th, 2009 10:31
Systemsman – agree the voting chart was an excellent idea (Showlad I think)
Definitely need one around Xmas – Rambo would not have been high on many people’s lists at Xmas last year – certainly not 6 points, 6 points, 6 points etc
Then another vote at weights day
Would be very interesting to see the differences and discuss the changes
#26
June 12th, 2009 13:16
Good to see you guys and Maureen are keeping this excellent website alive. The two that interest me most at this stage are Chacter Building and Gone to Lunch. I have a strong suspicion that Quinn might take the successful route of keeping CB to hurdle races for the majority of the season. If he starts out on that tack, I’ll be very interested in him. If the handicapper were to take 7lbs or more off of COMPLY OR DIE’S back, he would have to enter calculations too. He hardly went a yard all seasona nd then really lit up at Aintree but was unfairly weighted out of it (in my opinion). I did not fancy him at all this year but he ran an absolute blinder.
#27
June 12th, 2009 19:00
Before I discovered this site I use to look at Nick Morden ideas for the national(still do as I rate him excellent in what he does.)
In the Weekender (my weekly racing paper) around when the weights get publish (give or take a week) he brings out his formula for the national.(Mon Mome was in this year’s short list).
His formula is:-
1 5pts for mininum rating of 137.
2 5pts for reaching first 3 in a chase with 13 or more runners.
3 5pts for winning over 3 miles plus.
4 5pts for winning over 3 miles 3 furlongs or more or finishing in first 3 in the Grand/Welsh/Scottish/Irish or Midland National.
5 5pts for not being a novice for this or the previous season.
6 5pts for completing the course in a field of 18 or more runners or and this loses me a bit where 8.5% of runners have fallen in the past decade.
7 5pts for carring less than 11 stone 2 pounds.
8 5pts for going hurdling in the current season.
9 5pts if they won no more than once in their last six runs.
10 5pts for not being bred in France.
11 5pts for a RPR of 145 plus.
12 5ptS for no headgear this season.
Why 5 points per item on the list,just his preference.
Point 6 the 8.5 percent of fallers in the past decade loses me as I’ve no accurate data on this so I assume park courses are the courses being identified.(ie Sandown,Haydock,Ascot etc).
He says,and this point might help you lot in future research,that you don’t have to have a selection making all twelve points you could have a selection making just eleven of the twelve. You’re still get a high percentage of the winners.
Thanks systemman for the vote of confidence in me and any news in my paper on possible runners I will post on here in the hope that we can crack the 2010 running together
Ps don’t sell yourself short your list is just as likely to contain the winner as mine would.Looking forward to your list.
Just one thing about Big Fella Thanks,he first came to my attention when Tom Segal mentioned him as a possible 2009 candidate. So I backed him next run and noted how he did. He has possibilties but still has more to learn and got outpaced a bit.Maybe for 2011 if in good shape.(This is of course my personal opinion.)
#28
June 13th, 2009 00:22
My point in the last article is you don’t have to look for a perfect candidate, just something near to what you want. How many would have considered Mom mome if you adapted this approach, instead of dropping him because he was french bred. Of course I’am aware drop too many stats and you might as well take a pin and find your winner that way.
#29
June 13th, 2009 02:45
Hi all.
Reason I’m up so late is due to poker tournies which is what I do during the summer to pass the time while the boring flat season is on lol. Altho I did have a bet in the derby I must confess.
Glad to see a lot of people back and already posting. I haven’t really looked into anything yet and therefore won’t post anything major yet. I do have 2 post-it notes saying Milan Deux Mille and Herecomethetruth for 2010 GN. Not sure when they were written althouh I presume about 2 years ago. I think Herecomes.. would be too high OR anyways now, if they even went that route which I doubt. But he is the best jumper around.
Nice to see A New Story getting a mention. A horse I backed for the 2007 and 2008 Nationals, but never took his place
I believe he is getting on a bit now tho is he not? 11-12 now surely?
That also goes for Out The Black and Hello Bud if memory serves me right. I backed em both for the SN im proud to say – my biggest win this year. But if I remember rightly they were already 11 then. Would they not be 12 next year then?
As for Neil’s previous post. I have never implemented the french bred trend. Mon Mome was on my final 10. But due to recent form, including race within a month of National (Midlands I believe it was), plus jockey (Coleman) dismissing it, plus huge drift in price were all what put me off backing. In retrospect I shudve had £2 to cover myself, but seemed like a waste of money. I think they were the main reasons for people not backing it. No good noises from the stables, friendless and terrible recent form. Would most likely do the same thing this coming year I’m afraid to say.
Great to hear from u all again and thanks Admin for keeping this site going.
Ells
1
#30
June 13th, 2009 23:56
I used this website for first time last year and enjoyed it almost as much as the race. My initial gut feeling for 2009 was Comply or Die, struck me as a hedgehunter type who would do well for several years not sure about winning but great each way. Amazed how he was so easily dismissed even after a very good showing at cheltnam. Fast forward to 2010 for last years Scottish National 2009 Hello Bud was well supported on here i opted for out the black but terrific race. Looked back at S N postings words like jumps for fun, great heart, would put half of lock ness on him, and read before the race in sun newspaper comments dismiss this horse at your peril. If this horse runs it must be the best e/w bet of the race along with comply or die (how much weight this time). I feel at 12 years old next year this will be stables last chance to make a big return with this one, and do not forget the S National performance came 9 days after his last race not exactly fresh, he would be for aintree. Finally for those who watched the S N he showed a turn of foot after the last to lose out the black and responded again when asked a question by Gone to Lunch. This horse as a great heart, many thanks to maureen for bringing him back to my attention when i openned backing irish rapture.
#31
June 15th, 2009 18:55
Not sure if it’s already been covered- may be by Pablo- but I make it that 17/19; 16/16 GN winners had recorded an RPR of 7lbs, or more, higher than their National OR in one of their 8 chases before the big one. Interesting stat.
Haven’t backed anything yet but Church Island does seem a good thing at this very early stage.
#32
June 15th, 2009 22:50
I don’t know the stats for this horse but I’ve a feeling State Of Play could develop into an interesting contenter. He was the previous Hennessy winner before Denman (i think ) and unlike Denman I think he could turn up (if fit & well on the day.)
#33
June 15th, 2009 23:57
Just looked at State of Play was fourth last year, could carry a lot of weight as he had a rating of 150 last year, but was nine so the still a chance.
#34
June 16th, 2009 10:30
Thing that worries me about Church Island is that he seems to get beaten after about 28f and was a front-runner in both the big handicaps he ran in last season (Irish GN and Whitbread (Bet365)).
There will be plenty of others to take him on up front next year. Be interesting to see whether the noises are that he’s being trained for the race. If he is I hope they change tactics and let something else go on (Irish Raptor or Black Apalachi or Mr Pointment).
Other than that there’s not much wrong with him.
#35
June 17th, 2009 22:04
Not a huge flat racing fan, but getting into it more this year, through following the trends and backing a few winners this term. Has anyone got trends for races at royal Ascot. I like the look of Veracity tomorrow in the Gold cup
#36
June 17th, 2009 22:18
I asked that question on the Bet 365 thread and got the answer to go to the attheraces web site its full of useful info.
#37
June 17th, 2009 22:45
Some trends to help you TC Gold Cup. Nine of the last ten winners had triumphed over two miles. Henry II stakes has produced half of the last sixteen winners. Seven of the last ten had won earlier in the campaign. Age apart from Yeats last win you’re looking at four to six year old. No horse has won four times so Yeats is trying to make history. Trainers with good records in this race is A P O’ Brien three wins, no places, from six runners; Saeed Bin Suroor two wins, two places, from twenty runners; E Lellouche one win, one place, from two runners; A Fabre no wins, two places, from two runners; D K Weld no wins, two places from three runners; J A Osborne no wins, two places, from two runners; Sir Michael Stoute no wins, two places from five runners. I Hope this info is useful to you. I hope the rest of you didn’t mind this little diversion in our discussion.
#38
June 18th, 2009 08:23
“I hope the rest of you didn’t mind this little diversion in our discussion.”
Well at least the Gold Cup is a stayers race so we’re not going too far off track!
I only have a passing interest in flat racing but this looks a two horse race to me. Can’t see the winner not being Yeats or Geordieland to be honest, as the rest of the field look like non-stayers or just aren’t good enough. The Godolphin horses have been running poorly of late so may be best watched. I guess the question is are you happy to take the 9/4 about Yeats and forgive his last run or take the 3/1 on Geordieland who arrives here in great form? I won’t be having a bet myself!
#39
June 18th, 2009 11:06
Did have a special bet ages ago for Kasbah Bliss to win both Labrokes World Hurdle & Ascot Gold Cup with Labrokes at 12/1 but that fell through.
As it stands Yeats is the one to beat, but age and history is against him so I think Patkai could be the upset.
Nearly time for the summer national does anyone know some useful trends for that.
#40
June 18th, 2009 14:24
I notices that we have a new track Ffro Las in south wales. Wonder if it will have any bearings for the national or any other important jumping races.
#41
June 18th, 2009 14:46
Neil,
I think their biggest race is going to be The Welsh Campion Hurdle in Jan or Feb but I think they have a big handicap chase planned for later in the summer. I’m not totally sure about that though.
#42
June 18th, 2009 16:19
To The Stayer. You would know the characteristics of this new course. It says its like Newbury but appears tight on the bends. It also appears flat (even). Just asking so any horses who run on there can be properly assessed.
#43
June 19th, 2009 08:44
Neil,
The Racing Post website describes it as being “left-handed, flat, galloping.” From what I saw yesterday it does look very flat and the bends didn’t look too sharp. I think it was Nicky Henderson who compared it to Newbury so that’s good enough for me.
#44
June 19th, 2009 10:00
Getting back to the Grand National – i note the Hennessy and Welsh National have been mentioned as key races.
I have checked these races over the last 6/7 years and noticed that all National winners that came from these two races were aged 6/7 when they initially had placed in said races ( some had been also placed at a later age ) but all had shown quality at an early age to get involved in the finish in atop race.
Can anyone name the key irsih national races anfd the winners for the last three years.
thanks in advance
ken
#45
June 19th, 2009 10:19
Thanks Stayer would be interesting then for form if any horse who ran there comes to Aintree. Because I think Newbury and Aintree grand National course are very similar, both wide galloping courses, going left handed. I wonder what important chases they have planned. Time will tell.
#46
June 19th, 2009 10:38
Mc Coy seemed pleased with the new track and quoted as saying.
“According to the lads,these fences take a bit of jumping.”
So there another comparison to Aintree.I think results from this new track might be worth keeping an eye on.
#47
June 19th, 2009 23:35
Just been looking through the archives of the 2008 summer national where Surface to air won and was mentioned by Pav to be a possible candidate for the 2010 grand national. Does anyone have any idea what became of this horse or is he still a possibilty?
#48
June 23rd, 2009 08:39
Neil,
Surface To Air has not run since the Summer National last year so presumably something has gone wrong with him unfortunately.
The summer National is this Sunday and looking at the card i’m massively disappointed on two fronts. This is a class 1 chase and was worth £35k to the winner last year, but only 3-4 of the 39 entries are rated 130 or more. Most horses are in the mid 120s, which leaves them 15-20lbs from even getting in to the National. Very disappointing entry in terms of class.
Even more disappointing and indeed worrying is that they have reduced the distance from 4m1f to 3m4f. Clearly that diminishes the race as a National trial but the ramifications are greater than that. We are slowly losing our long distance chases. Go back 5-6 years and we had a 4m1f chase at Cheltenham’s New Year meeting and the Singer and Friedlander National Trial was a 3m4f slog around Uttoxeter. Both of those races have been reduced in distance. The 4m1f chase at Cheltenham is now around 3m2f (won by Rambo this year if i’m not mistaken) and the Singer and Friedlander is now contested over something like 2m5f/2m6f. Now the Summer National is being reduced in distance by over half a mile. These are three high-profile examples but there are probably plenty of other long distance chases that have either fallen from the racing calendar, or been reduced in distance that I don’t know about. After a couple of fatalities in the race a few seasons ago, the powers that be considered reducing the distance of the Cheltenham Festival 4-miler. It remained unaltered but i’m still a bit concerned for the long-term future of the race.
There was a piece in the RP a few weeks ago about the BHA considering to introduce 4f races as there are horses being bred that don’t stay 5f. Don’t stay 5f?!?!? What the f**k are the breeders doing?!?! This coupled with the reduction in long distance chases fills me with apprehension about the future of NH racing. With apparently less and less stamina in the thoroughbred breed and the removal of staying races, where are the stayers of future years going to come from? I can see me when i’m 70 watching a 1m6f hurdle race where half the field don’t get the trip! I know some trainers bang on about a classy 2m4f horse being ideal for a National because “they can hunt round the first circuit blah blah.” We know from the stats that this isn’t true but maybe in the future it will be.
#49
June 23rd, 2009 13:56
Thanks for the info on Surface To Air, did research the horse when no-one replied to my query.
The Summer National this Sunday I knew it was around the ending of June/beginning of July but it’s interesting you say they dropped the distance by half a mile (essentially making all stats worthless.)
On a greater note you say about dropping the distances of a lot more races than the summer national. This I’ve notice. For example the Scottish National was over 4 miles and 1 furlong now its over 4 miles and 1/2 furlong and the used to be a race as long as the Grand National itself (Midlands Grand National aka Jack Carter Gold Cup) they dropped 2 furlongs off that. The only reason they haven’t touched the Grand National is because of the “Once a year punters.”
Yes its only a matter of time before the 4 furlong sprint is introduced in the UK like it has been in the US and whle our attention is in the National Hunt game remember today’s flat horses are tomorrow’s national hunt contenders.
As for a 2 1/2 miler in the national, I’ve never believed that anyway but it was the 1970′s were that came from. On that point I noticed a lot of stayers when working out last years national,so maybe staying 3 miles needs updating,tried 3 1/2 miles a few years ago but not enough races with the right kind of class,my personal opinion is 3 miles 1 1/2 furlongs to 3 miles 2 furlongs are the distances that need to be achieved.
Of course my book which I bought in the early 90′s say that stat don’t find the winner all the time,so if this is not one of those years I would not be put off using them again.
Will post my summer national selections (if any) when studied the form and stats.
This will be first time on the summer jumping scene for me, not a fan because I always have the thought that the ground is too firm for jumping (a bit like when they tried All Weather jumping. Glad they got rid of that!)
#50
June 24th, 2009 16:31
This race looks tricky no real conclusion yet, but King Of Angels looks an interesting future grand national type trained by Jonjo O’Neill who’s not frighten to send horses there.
Looking at the quote on the RP website he says “Tony (McCoy) gave him a brilliant ride. He’s a big horse but he’s not really filled out yet and I think he could be the type to keep on improving. We be looking to win more races with him this summer(2007). Staying is his forte and he jumps well. If the weather turns we’ll give him a break because he needs a sound surface.” This quote was taken 08 sept 07 when he won at Stratford.
His OR was 124 then and on sunday it 127 so the some improvement needed I also know that he not won since 2007 but if he recapture his previous form he might have similarity to Party Politics.
His RPR is 159 on good ground at 3 miles, his latest is 143 at 2 miles 7 furlongs on good to firm ground. Might be an EW chance on sunday.
#51
June 24th, 2009 18:50
Hello!
Are there any stats for the Summer ‘National’ on Sunday?
Good to see folk still on here – its a bit like a pub on a holiday resort…. – the locals are still here but the holiday makers have all gone home (for the time being anyway!
#52
June 24th, 2009 22:16
My 3 against the field at this stage – need to wait for prices and going:
King Barry
Boychuk
The King Of Angels
#53
June 24th, 2009 22:24
Hi Matriarch welcome. Stats are thin on the ground but looking at the archives section of June 2008 they established OR of between 117 & 133 and no one beyond ten. However stayer and myself just been discussing about the endanger of the long distance races and the shortening of certain races including this race. So any stats might be invalid.
#54
June 25th, 2009 11:07
The King Of Angels needs to improve his jumping but if Jonjo can sort that out then could start being a future grand national star. However in the present like the look of Sandhurst, although Black Beauty beat him 2 runs ago.
#55
June 26th, 2009 10:44
Final decs for Summer National:
11 – 12 Seymour Weld (claimer 3lb)
11 – 11 Bothar Na (3lb)
11 – 7 King Barry
11 – 4 Rakalackey
11 – 4 Scalloway
11 – 3 Take The Stand (7lb)
11 – 3 Fire And Rain
11 – 2 Keenan’s Future (5lb)
11 – 1 Prestbury Knight
11 – 1 Victor Daly
11 – 1 The King Of Angels
11 – 1 Fourty Acers
11 – 1 Brotenstown
11 – 0 Freeze The Flame
10 – 13 Lukie Victor
10 – 11 Nudge And Nurdle
10 – 11 L’Aventure
10 – 11 Sea Wall
Very tight handicap only 15lb between top and bottom with several claimers being used
Keenan’s Future looks very interesting now
#56
June 26th, 2009 19:02
This needs a major rethink as my selections are not there.
My three against the field are Bother Na, King Barry & Rakalackey.
Bother Na looks to have no trouble with large fields and the trip. Now ten he has ran in all kinds of marathan races including Silver Birch’s Grand National where he blundered at the 11th, was behind at canal turn second circuit and pulled up 2 out. His OR was 138 then and now is 134 so he’s come down 4 pound.
King Barry ran well in the scottish national and his owner thinks 20b furlongs is his best trip, I’d have to say it’s border line and if the price is right might be prepared to gave him a second chance.
Rakalackey is eleven so goes against any stats for this race, but the way he won his last race, just getting up on line, suggest a strong pace might suit him. He was also third in last year’s race.
#57
June 27th, 2009 21:26
Looks like the rain has come for Keenan’s Future – 10/1 available with Paddy Power but hoping for larger price elsewhere
#58
June 27th, 2009 21:36
Take that back – still Good (Good to Firm in places) according to RP – hoping for overnight rain!
#59
June 27th, 2009 21:53
I backed Fourty Acers in this race last year; think he came 4th. Although he doesn’t seem to have done much recently, David Pipe seems to place the horse quite well.
#60
June 27th, 2009 22:06
Agree – if it doesn’t rain then Fourty Acers must have a big chance – has won first time out before
#61
June 28th, 2009 10:25
The King Of Angels main bet for me at 28/1 with Stan James and will add Keenan’s Future if going changes
#62
June 28th, 2009 15:39
Well done Fire And Rain, The King Of Angels ran better than I expected but a couple of jumping errors might have cost him the race.I don’t know if anything can go onto Aintree though. Will study the result to see.
Hope you had the conviction to back King Of Angels Each Way Pablo.
#63
June 29th, 2009 20:14
Does anyone know what happen to King Barry? He pulled up early on.
#64
July 1st, 2009 19:23
Does anyone know why Iris de Balme hasnt run since 2008? Has he been injured?
#65
July 1st, 2009 21:09
I still don’t know what happen to King Barry, pulling up at the 10th and dismounting,I hope that it’s not that serious.
The King of Angels made to many mistakes to be considered for Aintree and his rating needs to improve.
Fire and Rain the main point of this briefing. Rating of 126 so needs to improve 10 pound just to be in consideration. He’s a 6yo (7yo when the next national comes around), but the is a lot to like about him.
First he ran at Royal Ascot (Ascot Stakes (handicap 0-95)over 2 miles 4 furlongs where he finished 14 of 20 so we can presume he has class, I expect his OR over jumps to improve.
Secondly he was reported to relish every yard of this marathon trip, which should help if he turned up at Aintree.
Thirdly I think he’s a spring horse so the Grand National could be a possibilty.
#66
July 2nd, 2009 16:52
Think King Of Angels might struggle on watered ground on Grand National Day
Trainer thinks he’s best on top of the ground
He has a touch of class (ran in Group races for A P O’Brien as a 3-y-o – although well beaten each time)
Will only be 7 next year and didn’t really beat much last week in what was effectively a 0-135 handicap
Might be a Midlands National horse next year if the going is fast – definitely one to consider when he gets his fast ground – gets on well with the jockey too
#67
July 4th, 2009 00:30
sorry – last post should read Fire And Rain not King Of Angels
#68
July 4th, 2009 15:59
Been doing some work on St Leger
Last 12 years:
4 winners of Gordon Stakes trial (Nedawi, Millenary, Sixties Icon & Conduit)
3 winners of Great Voltigeur trial (Milan, Rule Of Law & Lucarno)
4 others (2nd, 3rd or 4th) in Great Voltigeur (Silver Patriarch, Mutafaweq, Bollin Eric & Brian Boru)
1 winner of French Group 1 before Leger (didn’t run in either GS or GV trial – Scorpion)
Other key races – top 5 finish in King Edward VII (6/12) and / or Irish Derby (5/12), run in the Epsom Derby (5/12)
The 2 winners in last 12 years that hadn’t run in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot or the Derby or the Irish Derby both won their trial
All winners had posted RPR 114+ going into the race
Golden Sword
Masterofthehorse
Mourayan
Father Time
…are the only current qualifiers
Market appears to be about right at the moment subject to outcome of the trials – the four horses named above are the first four in the market
However the trials will give a better idea (plus any other Group 1 or Group 2 form from now on)
#69
July 25th, 2009 18:04
Well I may not have got the 2009 GN winner but am having my best ever summer run – I just hope it cares on. This is on top of getting back my lost GN money in the Eurvision Song Contest (my GN bank is full and just waiting for action!). Hope some of you have been following my political investments (to build our GN fighting fund) on OLGB (see “special forum”) its now five wins from five recommended bets.
I can almost spell the GN 2010 now – cant wait to study that short list.
I will try to post that RPR/OR list soon as I keep getting distracted by day to day study of form/systems.
#70
August 6th, 2009 16:30
Re Flintoff (comments on Hello Bud thread)
I would guess that Venetia Williams will intensify her focus on the Grand National after last year’s success and Flintoff looks a likely candidate to make it into her team for Aintree so it is a bit surprising to not see him quoted by anyone other than Betfair.
As already highlighted he is without a win since early 2007 but seemed to spend most of that year in the doldrums after recording two wins in five days at Wetherby and Newbury. A great return turn round in form came about from the Andrew Flintoff and Paul Beck owned gelding when he nearly pulled off a huge shock at 66/1 in the 2008 Red Square Vodka Gold Cup, just being denied by the in-form Miko De Beauchene. Some may have questioned his resolution at the business end of the race that day and this doubt has been raised on a couple of occasions. Another possible negative is connections assertion that the horse needs really soft ground to be at his best as outlined here:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/22/RACING_Flintoff.html
The horse obviously does have some decent placed form (Scottish National) on good ground but if he does need really soft ground to be really effective he may find Aintree not to his liking as the Grand National tends not to favour mudlarks.
On the positive side of things, he seems to have improved for the step up in trip and it’s quite possible he is still handicapped to win a big race even though he is now rated 140 and his last win came at 122. He has youth and relative inexperience on his side to be able to find more improvement.
From a personal perspective, I’d be quite interested in him for something like the Welsh National rather than for Aintree, especially as that race is another that the Williams yard target and that was a race Mon Mome took in before going on to Aintree so perhaps Flintoff could be lined up for a similar double assault? But Chepstow would interest me rather than Aintree.
Other viewpoints on this horse would be good to hear.
#71
August 6th, 2009 19:01
Thanks for the clarification on Gone To Lunch over on the Hello Bud thread, Stayer,( sorry Admin on my part of the misuse of that thread.) Normally my guide is to take an experience handicapper (ie must have at least two full seasons amongst handicappers, but this is just a guide and if something comes along which justifies bending this rule I’am quite prepare to do this. After all every rule as its exception.
You say Bechers was not a class one event originally and this I’ve no reason to doubt but just to set the record straight on Earth Summit. Yes he did run in the Bechers but after his National victory. He repeated both races again the next year, without success. For me and though it was the Welsh National which first alerted me to Earth Summit and I took the 25/1.
I also did Suny Bay that year a horse who deserved to have won gave what Charlie Brook,(his trainer I think), did the previous year. He was second twice but I for one would say that he stayed the distance and just beaten by two well handicapped horses. The same arguement might just as well applied to Flintoff.
#72
August 6th, 2009 22:03
Ps I don’t think Suny Bay passed any stats. He certainly didn’t pass any of my stats. Weight for one was too high it was just a gut feeling after cheltenham that year.
#73
August 7th, 2009 08:31
I don’t know how Suny Bay didn’t pass any stats given he had won the Greenalls National Trial at Haydock (now the Red Square GC won by Rambo this year) going into the 1997 National, and in the autumn of 1997 added a Hennessy to his list of victories. I think he was just a bit unlucky to be honest. In 1997 he came up against a very well handicapped horse in the form of it’s life and in 1998 he was slogging 12-00 in heavy ground and giving over 20lbs to a Scottish and Welsh National winner. That was one of the greatest weight-carrying performances ever seen at Aintree.
Back to Flintoff. Good point about the Welsh National Admin. I can see Flintoff heading there as Venetia likes to have a runner in the race. Also agree that if you fancy the horse for Aintree you will have to back it before the week of the race as the media circus around the horse and his owner will drive the price down. Every cricket fan will back it!
#74
August 7th, 2009 08:47
My main fancy for the Welsh National is Companero, a 9-y-o
He was entered for GN this year but just missed the cut – probably a good thing
Loves the mud – 3 from 3 in Irish Points and 2 from 3 in chases for Howard Johnson – his only defeat over fences coming in a Grade 2 when the stable was under a cloud
Pedigree is packed with stamina – he’s by Supreme Leader (with the great Busted influence and dad of What’s Up Boys & Supreme Glory – both 2nd in GN) out of a Le Moss mare (winner of 2 Ascot Gold Cups)
OR 137 so he can win a race and still get in on a decent mark – probably won’t be out until November unless it’s a very wet Autumn
#75
August 7th, 2009 12:16
Stayer I think Suny Bay was too high in OR as well as weight, he was the original top weight when the weights were published, I think. Plus the trail races I were using at the time were Hennessy, Welsh National, what now called the london national (by admin), and what now is the william hill handicap at the cheltenham festival. Its only this site with similar views to mine which open up other trail races for me.
#76
August 7th, 2009 12:38
If flintoff does well in the welsh national then it has possibilties for Aintree. PS the last article I meant trial not trail (I Hope you forgive my poor spelling. )
#77
August 7th, 2009 14:42
Has Character Building been bounded around yet?
I dont want to go backing him with his all too well known injury problems and last minute withdrawls, but he is one of the few that ticks all the boxes for me at the moment.
If I knew he was in good health and the race was tomorrow, he would be my fave.
#78
August 7th, 2009 15:07
Don’t know which one I would make favourite – can’t find one that ticks all the boxes – but it is early August after all.
My long list of 30 is below – some are very unlikely runners, others possibly too inexperienced, a few very doubtful stayers, OR might be too high, some might be 2011 prospects, other reasons etc – but I will be keeping an eye on all of them over the coming months:
Ambobo
Arbor Supreme
Big Fella Thanks
Black Apalachi
Butlers Cabin
Casey Jones
Character Building
Church Island
Cornish Sett
Dear Villez
Emma Jane
Flintoff
Gone To Lunch
Hello Bud
Hot Weld
Iris De Balme
Lacdoudal
Miko De Beauchene
Mr Pointment
Niche Market
One Cool Cookie
Oodachee
Parsons Legacy
Parsons Pistol
Possol
Rambling Minster
Russian Trigger
Siegemaster
State Of Play
Trabolgan
#79
August 7th, 2009 18:27
Wow! That’s quite a list, Pablo, hopefully in the coming months as some will race you’ll be able to file down the numbers.
Myself I don’t have a list as I keep my mind open until the weights get published. Not to say though that I don’t keep my eyes open for probabilities, but nothing set until the weights.
#80
August 7th, 2009 19:51
Neil – only a list – looking for 100+ value on betfair else will wait for race week itself to make sure of going etc
#81
August 7th, 2009 20:43
If you’re looking for a 100+ on betfair then why don’t you enter that on betfair.
#82
August 7th, 2009 21:04
Pablo. What I meant was enter 100+ on betfair for those on your list in betfair list and see if anyone takes your offer. Reading the last article back it sounded to be disrespectful and I didn’t meant it to.
#83
August 10th, 2009 13:01
My long list (and it is a LONGlist) would be;
Black Apalchi
Butlers Cabin
PRIESTS LEAP
PARSONS LEGACY
CHARACTER BUILDING
Southern Vic
Hello Bud
Golden Flight
FLINTOFF
Himalayan Trail
BOTHAR NA
CAPS means I have preference in some way or another for those over the others.
#84
August 10th, 2009 17:55
I think Hot Weld has been retired.
#85
August 10th, 2009 18:01
I’ve been having a look at some of the horses on Pablo’s shortlist and a couple jumped out at me, one of which was LACDOUDAL. It’s easy to make a case for this one:
- will be 11 next April
- winner of a key race with 18 runners (hence a Class 1 Chase winner)
- winner of 4 chases total
- winner over 30f
- Top 3 finish in 20/28 chases including several in Class 1 races
- Only fallen once (In France in 2003 before he came to GB)
- OR 140
- RPR >145
Those are the stats but he’s also been placed at Aintree (Mildmay) a few times and likes good ground. He’s got a lot going for him. His highest rating was 156 and has won off 152 so now he’s down on 140 he could be well handicapped. Was off the course for over a year but after a pipe opener over hurdles last December put in 4 solid enough efforts over fences including a 6th in the William Hill at Cheltenham and 3rd in the Bet365. He’s very interesting.
#86
August 10th, 2009 20:02
Seems like we’re fancying more french horses, now one has won. Anyone know if Iris de Balme will be back this year.
I do think though, at this early stage we need to be focusing on the horses placed in Scot, Irish and Welsh nationals over tha past few years, along with top 2 in becher and top 5 in the hennessy. I’ll put up a shortlist soon.
No mention of War of Attrition anywhere, think he would be a very interesting candidate
#87
August 10th, 2009 21:46
I don’t know about what happen to Iris De Balme, but in general I don’t think its good news when they skip a season.
#88
August 11th, 2009 08:14
TC,
The French bred “stat” is not one that I have ever really bought into as the French breed has had an impact in the National over the last few years – Bindaree and Amberleigh House are sired by Roselier and Buckskin respectively and they are both French bred sires. Numbersixvalverde also has a French damsire (Le Bavard).
With regards WOA i’m not certain that this horse will still be in training next season. I think I may have read that he was retired after pulling up at Punchestown at the end of last season but I might be wrong.
#89
August 11th, 2009 11:53
“I do think though, at this early stage we need to be focusing on the horses placed in Scot, Irish and Welsh nationals over tha past few years, along with top 2 in becher and top 5 in the hennessy. I’ll put up a shortlist soon.”
Ive tried that myself, and havent found much!!!
An interesting well put case made for Lacdoudal; Lets keep an collective eye on him early next season hey.
#90
August 11th, 2009 14:53
Hi all,
I’ve been very interested in Pablo’s list and in particular some of the “darker” Irish horses such as:
Arbor Supreme
Casey Jones
Emma Jane
Siegemeaster
I haven’t had an in-depth look at these yet but its made me think it might be a good idea to open a thread with the idea of looking at the early Irish challenge. Particularly as the best placed Irish finisher in the National last year was surprisingly only in eighth place. This comes after a couple of years when the Irish raiders have filled most of the places so it made me wonder if Phil Smith might be overcooking the handicapping on our Irish friends for the National? It could, of course, just have been a one off in 2009 but it might be worth investigating. So, have a think about any Irish horses you want to look at (preferably not the most obvious ones such as Black Apalachi and Notre Pere as we are likely to have separate pages for them as we progress through the season.)
Also be ready with your thoughts on the general level of the Irish handicappers likely to contend the National. Look out for the new thread later today.
#91
August 11th, 2009 14:56
Hi Maureen,
re: Hot Weld
Do you have any further details? I can’t seem to find anything and I’d like to follow up as Hot Weld has been a favourite of mine.
Thanks
#92
August 13th, 2009 15:58
was in The Racing Post @ 27 June; must admit haven’t read it myself but someone posted it on theracingforum. Just double checked what I’d read because I must admit to getting Ferdys’ horses a bit mixed up sometimes.
#93
August 14th, 2009 10:23
Hi guys, see no mention of………..OFFSHORE ACCOUNT,ran a cracker last year,considering he was a run short,a lovely big horse who jumped the fences really well on the whole.He was given a typical positive ride by D Casey,he faded from 2 out,but up untill then was going very well,perhaps the lack of a run???????or stamina doubt??????not 100% sure about his breeding,but with better prep and more restraint he would be my No 1 Irish hope at this stage.LOL Steve.
#94
August 16th, 2009 11:23
Howdi folks – its great to be back .. refreshed and ready after a two week break in the sun – unfortunately this year Mr Ladbroke didnt pick up the tab … however lets all make sure he does next year
I agree with you Daniel – i think those old crisps stats seem to stand up year after year
Scot, Irish and Welsh national place over tha past few years, along with top 2 in becher or topham and top 5 in the hennessy
My early tips from those observings would be …
- Approx Nat weight based on top weight of 156
Black Apalachi 155 11-10
Miko De Beauchene 152 11-7
Dear Villez 148 11-3
Niche Market OR 145 11-0
Over the Creek 0R 140 10-9
Irish Raptor 138 10-7
Hmm.. not all that many .. still you have to start somewhere – this will be my starting list for 2010 … lets hope we are all smiling next april !
#95
August 17th, 2009 11:03
Silver Birch,
Thanks for throwing Over The Creek into the mix, I had completely forgotten about him.
He was a high class novice hurdler but his chasing career has never fully got going as he was off the course from March ’05 – Feb ’07 and has also been off the course since March ’08. However, despite his stop-start career, he does boast the following stats:
- Won a Class 1 chase (16 runners)
- Won over 26f (twice)
- Form in key race (3rd in Welsh National)
- 2nd over 4m (2008 NH Chase to Old Benny)
- Never fallen, one unseat (on chase debut)
- 9 chase starts, 2 wins and 4 other top 3 finishes – 66% top 3 SR
- OR 140
He has clearly had problems but the horse has in David Johnson an owner with patience, and in David Pipe a trainer with the ability to get a horse back, and the pair have done really well with problematic horses like Our Vic, Well Chief and Comply Or Die. I don’t know if the horse is still in training but if he is the National would be the obvious target. I will be keeping an eye out.
#96
August 17th, 2009 13:08
Over The Creek’s RPR is 143 which for some might be just a tad too low but, in all likelihood, his OR will be dropped a few pounds by the handicapper (Comply Or Die dropped 8 pounds for his lengthy absence) – so he will be reasonably well handicapped should be make a comeback
He won the same Cheltenham listed race at the 2007 December meeting in which Mon Mome beat Star De Mohaison late last year
Agree – definitely one to keep an eye on given staying form and connections
#97
August 17th, 2009 18:56
Over The Creek and Lacdoudal are horses to consider.
Over The Creek:-
Last entered the winners enclosure 14 Dec 07 where he beat Simon (another horse who I was quite keen on) by three quarters of a length. Over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs in a class 1 race, with 16 runners.
He ran third in a very excellent trial race the 07 Welsh National beaten only by Miko De Beauchene and Halcon Genelardais by sixteen lengths.
The only worry is he’s not been out since 13 Mar 08 where he finished second to Old Benny by seven lengths at Cheltenham, over 4 miles in a class 2 race.
Lacdoudal:-
Last entered the winners enclosure 29 Apr 06 where he won that years Sandown Gold Cup sponsored by Betfred. Not a usual route for the Grand National. His last run was in the same race in the 09 version where he finished third to Hennessy and Briery Fox.
A bit of a Sandown specialist he might show his best form there. Not really running well in any trial races to note. He did however finished sixth in the William hill trophy Chase of 09 in the Cheltenham festival.
Simon is another horse who I was keen on which I mentioned earlier on. In the 07 race I felt he came into that race in excellent form. He got no further than Valentines Brook, he got as far as that the next year when for me he seemed out of form. He’ll be eleven when the next national comes around. Perhaps this time he’ll finish the race. He won at just 3 miles in class 1 company but not since 24 Apr 07. He also has no trial races to speak of except this race last year.
#98
August 22nd, 2009 16:48
Over the Creek seems to get a National entry each year without running; think I’ve backed him ante post a couple of times. The race with Old Benny is one that throws up National horses on a regular basis. No one better than the Pipes for bringing horses back for the big occasion. Definately one to always keep an eye on. Think Simon has fallen out of love with the game, although with his weight dropping all the time if they can get his head right he might just run well. Pity, because I would love to see him run well for connections.
#99
August 22nd, 2009 19:42
After going against my better judgement in 09 focus on 2010 winners should be on 9 year olds, it is my understanding that those mentioned so far are at least 11 and it is clear that age is the most dominent stat, comments!
#100
August 22nd, 2009 20:59
Dave the booklet which I refer to, which I bought in the early 90′s say that nine year olds have the best age. Of course I don’t know the present stats, perhaps someone could enlighten us. Personally I don’t discard any age from eight to twelve, but nine and ten year olds I feel to have the best chance.
#101
August 24th, 2009 18:10
Hi Steve C Offshore Account gets a mention by Stayer on the Irish Challenge thread; http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2010-the-irish-challenge/
#102
August 27th, 2009 11:31
Pablo your comment dated july 4th about the St Leger you mention 4 horses with RPR of 114+ and said that this is a positive trend. I Currently only see Father Time from your list. I was just wondering if any more as been added or is Father Time your sole selection. Also I notice that at Ffos Las some grand national hopefuls running, namely Snoopy Loopy & Church Island. Might be their first step to victory at Liverpool.
#103
August 27th, 2009 14:40
Neil
Top 6 in the St Leger betting all have 114+ RPR
FATHER TIME: 12/1
+ RPR 114
+ won Group 2, King Edward VII at Royal Ascot (9/15 winners top 5 in race)
+ 3rd in Group 2, Great Voltigeur (9/19 top 4 in race, 11/12 ran in trial = Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes)
MOURAYAN: 12/1
+ RPR 116
+ 3rd Group 1, Irish Derby (6/14 top 5 Irish Derby)
- Beaten in Group 3 last time out
MONITOR CLOSELY: 8/1
+ RPR 117
+ Won Great Voltigeur (9/19 top 4 in race, 11/12 ran in trial = Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes)
CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD: 6/1
+ RPR 117
- Handicapper (20/20 top 3 in Group race at 3)
AGE OF AQUARIUS: 3/1
+ RPR 116
+ 2nd in French Group 1
KITE WOOD: 5/2
+ RPR 121
- Never placed in Group 2 or better (19/20)
Conclusion:
I don’t like the shape of the race at all
Horses at the top of the market have something to prove
If I had to have a bet I would have a small wager on Father Time to win because it was very impressive at Royal Ascot and nagging doubt that Monitor Closely stole the race last time at York
#104
August 27th, 2009 16:41
Thanks for that Pablo, think I’ll keep my stakes small and probably on Father Time. The national hopefuls are out tomorrow at 4.45 (I think). Its only a class 2 race but probably the best race at the moment until Hennessy.
#105
September 2nd, 2009 19:31
I’ve been studing Backstage, who won on Friday 28th August at Ffos Las.
In his favour I found his OR is 137 and his RPR is 148 within winning perimeters. He won a 17 runner race over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs so he ticks yes to stamina and a large field for me with the bonus of actually coming through the field. This I’am uncertain of but I think his novice days were in the 06/07 season, although he looks to still qualify for novice hurdles. His age is seven at the moment so next april he’ll be eight.
The negatives are he’s french bred, which didn’t stop Mon Mone and he hasn’t ran/won a recognised trial race and if Gordon Elliott is seriously thinking of the national for this one, then I think that’ll be put right asap.
#106
September 3rd, 2009 11:23
Backstage is now rated 148 by the Irish Handicapper (+13 lb)
Church Island has been dropped 1lb to 140 on Irish ratings
Both are entered for the Kerry National on 16th September
However, Backstage is down to run off top weight against some decent horses like Casey Jones (Grade 1 winner over 3 miles), Northern Alliance (Grade 2 winner) and Star Of Germany, who beat him convincingly over a shorter trip, but is now better off.
Also entered in the race are previous winners Ponmeoath (weight probably too high) and Bothar Na (could be of interest). Ballycullen Boy was second to Ponmeoath in 2007 yet is an incredible 19lb better off for only a one length defeat.
Therefore I’d suggest that Backstage has it all to do.
#107
September 10th, 2009 14:34
Hi Pablo. St leger has cut up to about 8 horses so i think Father Time around 5 to 1 is worth a small bet. As for national my current list starts with Backstage, but the might be better still to come.
#108
September 11th, 2009 19:38
The only thing I am worried about for Father Time is a lack of pace – if they go a decent pace I think he has a great chance on his win at Royal Ascot
#109
September 21st, 2009 14:02
I thought this might be of interest – a slightly different approach to solving the National conundrum
http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/the-aintree-grand-national-2009/
#110
September 21st, 2009 15:51
…and when he got it right in 2008
http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/the-aintree-grand-national-2008/
#111
September 24th, 2009 19:08
I have heard from the williams yard that state of play will be aimed at the 1010 GN although they are unsure of the route he will take. Admin, any chance of a thread on the 2010 winner (weights dependant). Many thanks and looking forward to getting my money back of those pesky bookies.
#112
September 29th, 2009 12:17
Hi Dave,
Due to space constraints as we get further into the season we have to try to make sure the threads we have don’t get too big but that we also don’t end up with too many different categories. I’m already slightly concerned that some of the horse threads are starting to not do the job they were designed for so I think we’ll carry on with our early fancies on this thread for the time being.
Can everyone try and use this as the main thread for their ideas, fancies etc and try and keep the horse threads for comments relating to that individual horse.
Thanks a lot
#113
September 29th, 2009 16:11
Admin,
Just a thought – this thread is not on the ‘Recent Posts’ list. Perhaps it would be more widely read and contributed to if it was to replace ‘Kerry National’ or something?
#114
September 30th, 2009 08:09
Pablo
Good idea. Being a relatively new member to this forum I was not aware of this thread. I am probably guilty of straying of topic on a few occasions.
Apologies Admin.
#115
September 30th, 2009 20:28
Ben your first item to this Blog was about Hello Bud, you were explaining his Dosage Profile and how on the Dosage figures he might not be suited to the national. This intrigue me and I asked you about Backstage and Fire and Rain. If I’d asked you on this thread chances are you won’t have seen them, so I asked you on the thread you first wrote on. To be fair Admin I know this thread can be accessed by both the June 2009 Archives and the Grand National 2010 Categories, but a new comer like Ben would look for something in plain sight, and to be honest I’d sort of thought this thread was finished. Pablo looked at your articles 9 and 10 the onlinebetting exposed articles and I think they might be some merit in it, can’t wait to try it out on the next 4 miler.
#116
September 30th, 2009 21:31
Fair point guys – I’ll look into getting the main thread bouncing up to near the top of ‘recent posts’
Thanks
#117
September 30th, 2009 21:36
Easier than I thought! From now on I’ll try and keep the main thread in the ‘recent posts’ list so anyone new to the blog should have no trouble finding where best to post.
Thanks again to all for your great input
#118
September 30th, 2009 21:44
Don’t want to downplay the dosage angle but in my opinion most of the horses lining up for the National pass most ‘staying tests’ by virtue of having run over and excelled at extreme distances – to me nurture must have a role to play as well as nature (don’t forget tha trainer needs to get the horse to jump fences too and over 30 fences any jumping inadequacies are likely to be magnified)
However as I think Ben’s book suggests it is a way of narrowing down the field – much like previous ‘key race’ experience (especially placed or top 5) of the Welsh, Irish, Scottish, GN, Hennessy etc, being well-handicapped (it is a handicap after all), ability to jump (not too many falls), preparation (enough runs depending on age), weight carried etc
I will only use the breeding angle to adjust my short list of horses where one horse has favourable staying stats against another with more dubious claims – in the case of the final 3 or 4 I will stake more on the one (or ones) with the better staying profile
I just don’t believe that many horses can be ruled out on breeding alone – or any one stat alone come to think of it
#119
September 30th, 2009 22:52
To be honest the system of breeding is not totally infallible, however you work it out. Both Dosage system and Pablo’s traditional way failed to pick Royal Athlete, but I’am guessing such misses are rare. Ben have you thought of advertising your book in the racing press.
#120
October 1st, 2009 00:26
To be fair not that many would have had Mon Mome on their betting slip to win any decent money either.
No system is completely robust of course.
The dosage thing kind of works for the National but only disadvantages about 25% of the field at best.
It is only a mathematical theory and is heavily based on a horse inheriting all its influences for speed and stamina from the male lines (and each exactly twice as potent as the previous generation).
This is clearly suspect as can be seen from Sea The Stars – Cape Cross has sired some middle distance operators such as Ouija Board but mostly milers, whereas the dam Urban Sea was an Arc winner and the dam of the great Galileo.
Urban Sea appears to have inherited most of her stamina from her mum Allegretta and not her dad Miswaki – whose offspring have been capable over a variety of distances – whereas Allegretta’s are all middle distance performers with the exception of King’s Best who won the 2,000 Guineas (and broke dwon in the Irish Derby) – Allegretta clearly has some remarkable genes to pass on although she wasn’t much on the track herself.
Yet the dosage gurus say that we can only use the influence of sires because they can sire 100s of foals whereas a dam can only produce 1 per year.
Take the example of One Cool Cookie and his full brother In Compliance – both are Grade 1 winners and possess exactly the same parents.
In Compliance was a better horse (rated 169 at peak)winner) and didn’t win at more than 21f (tried over 25f), whereas One Cool Cookie has won at 26f and looks also to have a very solid Grand National pedigree – but will he stay 4m 4f? I’d like to see him complete at 30f or 4 miles first before betting that he would (or in Hennessy or Gold Cup).
At least the form will be in the book (as it was with all but two of the past 19 National winners – Red Marauder & Monty’s Pass).
The dosage thing is based on selected Flat sires’ performances over the flat.
The likes of Montelimar, Last Of The Dandies, Roselier and other notable Grand National influences are ignored.
I’d be more interested in some research into the National Hunt sires and dams – not just the influences from the Flat.
#121
October 1st, 2009 09:22
Morning guys
I will try an answer your points above.
Pablo – You are indeed correct in your 1st post. I suggest using Dosage to “narrow the field”. It is by no means the only method I use when looking for the winner/looser of a race but a merely part of the process of form study I implement. How you use or indeed interpret the stats/trends in my book is up to you, it is not a system I am selling but an alternative angle for punters/bettors to analyse a race. The trends I have published were not readily available (without a great deal of research) and a lot of bettors would not have been aware of this angle. You are 100% correct in saying a horse cannot be ruled out on 1 stat alone, but I would never suggest using Dosage on its own or indeed any stat (no horse has ever regained the Gold Cup after loosing it crown….. step forward Sir Kauto Star!)
In your 2nd post, you may already be aware of this but Dosage does take in the Sires from the Dams side. Sea the Stars looks like he may be one of those rare freaks that out-performs it Breeding, the Arc will tell us more. The difference between him and his half sister Ouija Board is that Ouija Board gained some stamina influences from the sires on her Dams side, STS has no true stamina influences in his pedigree. If you visit my blog you will find my race preview on the Arc.
As for Onecoolcookie and InCompliance, I would argue InCompliance never really got the chance to show his worth over 3 miles.
I am glad you mentioned research into national Hunt sires as that is a project I will be looking into once Narrowing the Field is up and in full flow.
One last thing, it is not only distance I feel Dosage can determine, I take the view that it can also determine if a horse will be suited to certain track configurations i.e. Tight tracks, Galloping tracks etc.
Neil – As for advertising in the Racing Press, I would love that but that side of things will be in the hands of the Publishers, hopefully this is something they have looked into but if not I will be suggesting it.
P.S I do enjoy these conversations, let’s keep it up.
Regards
Ben Aitken
#122
October 1st, 2009 09:54
One more small point. One of the theories behind dosage is that the Sires on the ‘list’ have had a sustained & significant influence over the thoroughbred racehorse for a number of generations. The 3 you mentioned (Montelimar, Last Of The Dandies, Roselier) although having sired plenty of winners, I would not suggest that they have had a significant influence on the thoroughbred. However their bloodline is not ignored as, for example, any horse with Montelimar as a Sire will gain plenty of Dosage points from his 2nd and 3rd generation pedigree (which would become the foals 3rd & 4th generation pedigree).
Best regards
#123
October 1st, 2009 10:33
Ben
Points taken – I guess I’m just trying to point out that, as you say, there are no short cuts and that DI & CD are only indicators and must not always be taken at face value.
However there is clearly something in the breeding which can give the punter an edge. For example I backed Ninetieth Minute in the Coral Cup largely on the fact that he appeared to be the best handicapped horse in the field – being allowed to run off his Irish mark of 140. What made me bet more heavily was that his wins had been over 2 miles and his sire is Old Vic and damsire Le Bavard – so a step up in trip was very much likely to suit – and luckily it did.
On the subject of STS – Allegretta and Urban Sea (dam) both have a phenomenal strike rate of Group 1s per run – much more so than Miswaki (sire). Cape Cross sired Ouija Board, who ran a close 3rd in the Arc (some say unlucky not to win) – the dam Selecion Board produced a mixture of sprinters and stayers. On breeding STS would appear to have significantly more stamina from the dam’s side than Ouija Board did – the influence of Urban Sea.
I guess we’ll find out on Sunday. (Disclaimer: Of course some of the market principals have had the traditional summer break whereas STS hasn’t had that preparation and has been kept going all season winning a Group 1 every month since May.)
#124
October 1st, 2009 10:48
Roselier was never likely to have an influence over the thoroughbred on the Flat because <2% of his runners ran on the Flat. The ‘list’ is biased towards the Flat perhaps?
#125
October 1st, 2009 10:56
Pablo
Unfortunately there is a lot of aspects of racing/punting/form study that should not be taken at face value (maybe that’s why we love it so much?!?) however trends & stats can be a major advantage if used and viewed properly.
We are way off subject but what the hell (sorry admin), according to Dosage Ouija Board had a touch more inherited stamina than STS. Personally I don’t think the Arc is tailor made for STS, I am not saying that he isn’t a great horse however, that cannot be argued.
Cheers
Ben
#126
October 1st, 2009 11:05
Pablo
Not sure about biased towards the flat but I suppose you could look at it like; a vast majority of sires (especially the influential ones) never jumped a fence. Obviously most jumpers are gelded. Like a lot of race analysis or tools there are grey areas. Initial the Dosage system was created for the flat, but personally I saw no reason it could not be used for National Hunt analysis. The stats are there for all to see in my book.
Regards
Ben
#127
October 1st, 2009 11:32
Busted was not a particularly prominent sire of jumpers (compared with Roselier) but his influence going back a generation or as damsire has been very significant on The National (back on topic) especially.
Given that he was born a decade before Roselier, who was born a decade before Montelimar, it will be interesting to see whether the last two mentioned have as similar an impact on future jumpers.
I’m not sure what to call them as a group, but I have noticed that the following appear repeatedly on pedigree charts of National winners (Chef de Race*):
Busted* (Crepello*)
Vimy (Wild Risk*)
Wild Risk*
Vulgan
Montelimar
Roselier
Last Of The Dandies
Gala Performance
#128
October 1st, 2009 11:35
Ben I think pablo as a point. Roselier was the sire to Royal Athlete and if a small fraction went on the flat his influences might not be noticed. The was a similar debate over Sadler Well if memory serve me well as to include him in the Chef-de-race list.
#129
October 1st, 2009 12:01
Neil
Sadlers Wells is a Chef de race. Maybe I mis-read what you were getting at there?
I actually think comparing Roselier and Sadlers Wells may be a good example.
Sadlers Wells has had an undoubted influence over the thoroughbred race horse, not only has he produced numerous graded winners himself (over a number of years) so have his progeny. Roselier, although producing plenty of winners, has not had anywhere near the same effect on the thoroughbred, regardless whether this is jumps or flat.
Remember, the Chef de Race does not have to be a Sire to have an influence, they can appear anywhere in a horses 4 generation pedigree.
Ben
#130
October 1st, 2009 12:09
Don’t forget that the best Flat horses retire at 3 or 4 and therefore their impact can be felt within 15 years (Cape Cross). 15 years is not even 2 generations for National Hunt horses.
#131
October 1st, 2009 18:38
Ben what I meant with Sadler’s Wells was that he was not always considered to be a Chef-de-race. Using Nick’s book which was published in 1992 (1st reprint 1993) he lists the Chef-de-race at that time. He has under ‘s’ where Sadler’s Wells should be, Sardanapale, Sea-Bird, Seattle Slew, etc. He wrote articles on Sadler Wells should be included but at that time the was a debate. He included now and like you say his influence is obviously felt so that’s as it should be.
#132
October 1st, 2009 19:05
Pablo on the subject of National Hunt Sire’s my reply to The Stayer (see 1st page article 49 of this thread) applies.
Let me explain myself article 48 we were discussing the forth coming summer national (won by Fire and rain) and The Stayer mentioned it was av worrying fact that the summer national distance had dropped from 4m 1f to 3m 4f. He also mentioned that other long distance races were being affected. He also mentions an article he read in the RP of the possible introduction of 4f races because some horses couldn’t stay 5f.
I’ve also notice dropping in distances of a few races, maybe some could be put down to re measuring of distances. The Scottish National used to be half a furlong more (4m 1f) and the midlands national which was also known as the Jack Carter Gold Cup was the same distance as the Aintree Version, (at least it was when Lord Gyllene won, because a horse called Seven Towers beat LG and ST won the midlands.)
I also said that I felt it was only a matter of time the 4f sprint was introduced to the UK like I believe it has in the US and that todays flat horses are tomorrow’s national hunt stars.
This is true of breeding stock too, don’t forget though most national hunt horses are gelded.
#133
October 1st, 2009 22:11
Well if all these complications exist and will persist then perhaps we should carry on with our accepted (but individual) trends and forget about the breeding trends unless they make a difference at the final analysis – sort of what I said a while back
#134
October 1st, 2009 22:40
I have to agree, doesnt narrow the field down too much and there is no guarantee as to how far a horse will stay. The stats for the national have worked for a number of years. If it narrows it down to more than one then i think you could look at dosage figures to see which horse is likely to stay further
Does someone want to get the GN stats up, so we get an early shortlist of horses that hit the trends
#135
October 1st, 2009 23:24
Speaking of trends for the national the racing rascal who frequently visits these pages have some light hearted stats for the national. http://www.racingrascal.com/
#136
October 2nd, 2009 12:24
What’s been interesting me is the speed v stamina in the dosage of National winners. I’ve converted them in to an overall percentage of each winner, rounded up to the nearest 1%. Not an in depth study of breeding but just a basic look for any trends/patterns.
For example, Mr Frisk 6.5 speed points and 1.5 stamina points, so 81% speed, 19% stamina.
Mr Frisk 81 – 19
Seagram 12 – 88
Party Politics 31 – 69
Miinnehoma 42 – 58
Rough Quest 15 – 85
Lord Gyllene 21 – 79
Earth Summit 53 – 47
Bobbyjo 40 – 60
Papillon 25 – 75
Red Marauder 92 – 8
Bindaree 35 – 65
Monty’s Pass 50 – 50
Amberleigh House 50 – 50
Hedgehunter 54 – 46
Numbersixvalverde 20 – 80
Silver Birch 20 – 80
Comply Or Die 42 – 58
Mon Mome 75 – 25
This very raw, basic figures do throw up some patterns. Only 3/18 have a stamina % below 46% / a speed % above 54%.
(If you look at the figures for the 18 winners pre 1990, there has generally been a shift towards greater stamina since 1990)
Of the odd ones out Mr Frisk and Red Marauder won the quickest and slowest nationals in the two most extreme goings since 1990. For me breeding will play it’s part when I know the line up and the going.
Throwing a little bit of this speed v stamina in to the mix the top of my current shortlist, in alphabetical order, is heavily leaning towards Ireland and looks something like this;
Arbor Supreme
Casey Jones
Church Island
Iris De Balme
Offshore Account
One Cool Cookie
Over The Creek
And out of interest the last winner never to have won any kind of race at 3m or more, Gay Trip, 1970, had a % of 40 – 60.
#137
October 2nd, 2009 13:17
Some really intesting stuff on here with regards breeding and dosage.
Also of interest is the Irish racing this weekend, particularly tomorrow’s GD 2 Gowran Park Champion Chase over 2m4f. War of Attrition and One Cool Cookie are both amongst the final decs so it will be interesting to see how they go. You would think that the trip would suit One Cool Cookie and that he has a decent chance of winning this, and that makes me wonder how seriously connections are considering a tilt at the National.
#138
October 2nd, 2009 16:45
Here we go again then,
REVENGE YEAR
1. Age 8 to 12
2. Won 1+ Chases over 3m+
3. Run in 10+ Chases
4. Won a Class 2+ Chase
5. Won a Chase worth £17,000+
6. Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight
7. Top 3 finish in a Class 1 Chase over 3m+
8. Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
9. TS of 128+
10. RPR of 144+
11. Last run no greater than 50 days
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)
If anyone wants to add to the trends that i may have missed feel free to do so
#139
October 2nd, 2009 18:52
Shortly after the GN meeting Charlie Swan said that Offshore Account and (perhaps) Oodachee would be aimed at the race this year
Not sure what the plans are for One Cool Cookie but he was entered last year and given a mark of 153 (OR is now 143) – would be interested in him if he is entered again though
Cannot decide whether Offshore Account faded due to Strong Gale in breeding or whether preparation was inadequate (only one run over hurdles)
But if he has a better preparation (5 or 6 runs) and Evan Williams figures out how to prepare State Of Play better (now down to 145 from 150) – then they’d be my three against the field right now because topweight looks like being at least 161 (Mon Mome’s rating)
Got a feeling something will come out of the Hennessy or Welsh National this season – there are quite a few nice prospects that need some key race experience and form
#140
October 2nd, 2009 18:54
TC, hows about adding Pablo’s little discovery to our stats. Horses with 21 national hunt runs or more need at least 5 runs in the season, while horses with 13 to 20 need at least 3 runs.
Weight actually carried most not exceed 11 stone 5 pounds.
OR must be within the range of 136 to 157.
A run over hurdles these days seems to be a trend as well.
Must show good form in large fields, I usually say first or second in a field of twelve or more.
Lastly from me on the trends a win somewhere in the season is encourging.
#141
October 3rd, 2009 09:54
Crisp,
I think it has been mentioned before but your 3 exceptions with significantly more speed than stamina have another thing in common – fewer than 10 dosage points overall – think <10 points is said to be inconclusive.
The past 40 Nationals have thrown up 8 winners with <10 dosage points:
Specify
L’Escargot
Ben Nevis
Corbiere (same grandsire as Aldaniti)
Mr Frisk
Royal Athlete (sired by Roselier)
Red Marauder
Mon Mome
The last 3 all went in at big prices.
#142
October 7th, 2009 07:45
Hi guys
Sorry for my absence, I was in Paris attending the Arc. Longchamp certainly puts some of our racetracks to shame.
Anyway I’m glad the Dosage theme has been continued in my absence. One quick note to add, I have the cut off point at 8 total DP’s. Any horse holding less than this is not included in my Dosage analysis. Of recent winners both Mon Mome & Red Marauder fall into this category.
Regards
Ben Aitken
#143
October 7th, 2009 19:16
Hope LongChamp was profitable for you, Ben.
Around Feb I usually start working out the national, yes the stats are important, but so to are the trainer’s comments and now the flat (turf) is finishing and the national hunt game stepping up a gear I thought that I put up some trainers views on highly probable grand national contenders.
If the’s a thread up for that horse I’ll post the comments on the relative thread, if not I’ll post them on here.
STATE OF PLAY (trained by Evan Williams)
This fellow means the world to me. He has really put us on the map with wins in the Hennessy and Charlie Hall. Last season, after he won at Wetherby, we trained him for the Grand National and he ran a blinder to be fourth behind Mon Mome. I think if he hadn’t made an awful mistake, as he did at the one before Becher’s he would have been second, although he wouldn’t have troubled the winner. He won’t be ready for the Charlie Hall this time and I always think the Hennessy for a second-season chaser. Everything this term will be geared to the National again. As he will be ten next April, he will be at the peak of his powers and could take an even bigger hand in the finish.
#144
October 8th, 2009 08:24
State Of Play was the only horse I got a return on this year! He ran a perfectly sound race but I don’t know if I would back him again next year. He did actually make several mistakes on the way round and perhaps they took their toll, as he was bang there 2-out before fading at the very end. I’m not sure if he will fair much better in 2010.
#145
October 8th, 2009 10:56
If Mon Mome lines up off 161 then State Of Play will be running off <11 stone and should be there or thereabouts again
It’s a difficult one because he probably won’t run very often as the trainer is convinced he’s best when fresh so it’ll be hard to gauge his form and preparation
He’s on my shortlist but I tend to agree that he may find one or two too good again – although if he runs off his current mark of 145 (his Hennessy-winning mark) I’d have to back him
#146
October 8th, 2009 11:01
Interesting quotes from Charlie Swan a few days after last year’s race – no mention of One Cool Cookie – will he have three National runners with names all beginning with the same letter?
Apr 7 2009 Liverpool Echo
CHARLIE SWAN is already looking forward to next year’s John Smith’s Grand National when he could have two runners in Offshore Account and Oodachee.
Offshore Account ran well for a long way before fading into 15th place of the 17 finishers as Swan’s first runner in the Aintree showpiece on Saturday.
It was his second start since he recovered from a leg injury and his first outing over fences since the Betfair Chase in November 2007.
“Offshore Account is fine and his legs are great,” said the County Tipperary trainer.
“He’d had a bad preparation so he just got a bit tired unfortunately, but he ran really well and hopefully he’ll go for it again next year. I’m going to give him a break now and have a full campaign with him next season.”
Oodachee also took to the unique fences when second to Irish Raptor in the Topham Chase on Friday.
“He ran a great race in the Topham and he now could go for the old Whitbread (Bet365 Gold Cup) at Sandown or a three-mile handicap chase at Punchestown,” Swan went on.
“He could be a National possible next year as well.”
#147
October 8th, 2009 11:39
State of Play is an interesting, as well as complex, contender.
Very few national winners were off the track for longer than 50 days however this is at least the length of break that State of Play requires to be seen at his best.
This is probably the biggest single factor that is likely to prevent State of Play from becoming an Aintree National winner. Another bold show is highly likely but a win looks beyond him.
Welsh or Scottish Nationals may be a consideration for the Evan Williams trained Gelding.
Regards
Ben Aitken – Narrowing the Field
#148
October 8th, 2009 11:57
Neil
I did indeed have a profitable time at Longchamp. For a National Hunt boy like myself, I did pretty well. With very little study done (except for the Arc itself) I can only put this down to educated guesses/luck!?!
Roll on the jumps! Bangor & Chepstow this wkend….
#149
October 8th, 2009 18:43
Thanks for that piece of information on State Of Play, 7 weeks rest. Will bear that in mind. What I said on my article was exactly what Dave said on the 24th September.
With all due respect on the 50 day rest period, just because no horse in our data base has won the national with 50 plus days rest doesn’t mean its not possible.
For example before Red Rum no one dreamed of a triple winner, (well probably Mc Cain did.)
For me it would depend on the stats when I do them for this year’s national.
Ben, for me when I visit racecourses I’ve no luck. Visited Aintree for Little Polveir’s race, didn’t back it even though I backed it the year before, and worse still miss Beech Road winning at 10/1 the race before, when I backed it at 50/1 in the Champion Hurdle. Still enjoyed the visit though.
#150
October 8th, 2009 21:43
Neil
You are correct; just because no horse hasn’t done it before does not mean it can’t be done, every horse has to be treated as an individual. I do feel the 50 day break is an important stat however. Due to the extreme nature of the National it can only be a benefit to have the rough edges smoothed off with a prep run.
My days at the racetrack can be very hit or miss. I was surprised by my results at Longchamp as minimum study had been done. The most important rule I give myself is not to bet in every race. Gives you a fighting chance of turning a profit.
Ben Aitken
http://narrowingthefield.blogspot.com/
#151
October 9th, 2009 12:05
Some interesting videos on the ATR site where Nicholls is talking about his various prospects for the upcoming season.
He has confirmed that Tricky Trickster will go for the National this season. The horse will have 2-3 runs over hurdles before the weights come out, then have 1-2 runs over fences before Aintree. Looks like he will be lining up as a 7yo with a mere 5-6 chases under his belt.
He also said that Denman is likely to start off in the Hennessy next month. He’s rated 174 so if he were to run any horses rated <150 would be running from out of the handicap. That could obviously have an impact on the race as a National trial this season.
#152
October 9th, 2009 12:21
Now that the jumps season is about to get underway with the first Cheltenham meeting next Friday (including the race that Parson’s Legacy won last year) I thought I’d show how the GN might look if it were run now based on current OR, current betting lists, GN regulars and trainer intentions (based on what I have read – so excludes horses like Church Island & One Cool Cookie because I haven’t yet heard that they are to be aimed at the race).
The figures in brackets refer to last year’s GN rating for horses whose rating has subsequently dropped. For example Snowy Morning ran off 156 last year but is down to 151 now.
A horse like Irish Raptor will probably be subject to an ‘Aintree’ factor and go up a couple of pounds but a horse like Fire And Rain would probably need to win a race to get in (problem is this horse loves fast ground and would need to win by early Feb – maybe Scottish National would be a better option for F&R).
OR – Weight – Horse
161 – 11’10 – Mon Mome
160 – 11’9 – My Will
158 – 11’7 – Cloudy Lane
(156 – 11’5 – Snowy Morning GN ’09)
(156 – 11’5 – Chelsea Harbour GN ’09)
155 – 11’4 – Black Apalachi
154 – 11’3 – Comply Or Die
(153 – 11’2 – Preists Leap GN ’09)
152 – 11’1 – King Johns Castle
151 – 11’0 – Snowy Morning
150 – 10’13 – Big Fella Thanks
(150 – 10’13 – State Of Play GN ’09)
149 – 10’12 – Tricky Trickster
148 – 10’11 – Backstage
148 – 10’11 – Irish Invader
147 – 10’10 – Chelsea Harbour
(147 – 10’10 – Offshore Account GN ’09)
(147 – 10’10 – Butlers Cabin GN ’09)
146 – 10’9 – Parsons Legacy
146 – 10’9 – Preists Leap
145 – 10’8 – Niche Market
145 – 10’8 – State Of Play
145 – 10’8 – Character Building
144 – 10’7 – Southern Vic
(144 – 10’7 – Cornish Sett GN ’09)
(144 – 10’7 – Battlecry GN ’09)
143 – 10’6 – Offshore Account
142 – 10’5 – Cornish Sett
141 – 10’4 – Arbor Supreme
141 – 10’4 – Hello Bud
141 – 10’4 – Old Benny
(141 – 10’4 – Kilbeggan Blade GN ’09)
140 – 10’3 – Russian Trigger
140 – 10’3 – Kilbeggan Blade
(140 – 10’3 – Himalayan Trail GN ’09)
139 – 10’2 – Battlecry
(139 – 10’2 – Idle Talk GN ’09)
138 – 10’1 – Irish Raptor
136 – 10’0 – Oodachee
136 – 10’0 – Boychuk
135 – 10’0 – Butlers Cabin
135 – 10’0 – Fire And Rain
132 – 10’0 – Idle Talk
129 – 10’0 – Himalayan Trail
Horses in the 141-146 band look particularly strong at these weights, subject of course to the handicapper’s view.
#153
October 9th, 2009 16:26
Pretty good card at chepstow tomorrow as well as the munster national on sunday. Provided a lot of runners that ran well at the cheltenham festival.
The 3 mile chase looks very strong, will be keeping an eye on Philip Hobbs runners, could be a few horses with the welsh national in mind also
#154
October 12th, 2009 14:24
I think Paul Nicholls is aiming both Big Fella Thanks and Tricky Trickster at the National while Denman target is the Gold Cup. Ben how do these horses stand up on Dosage system?
#155
October 12th, 2009 17:26
Hi Neil
Big Fella Thanks – No.No.No.No a 100X NO! On Dosage figures anyway. Far too much speed influences for this ‘Fella’. Don’t have my notes at hand but I do remember flagging up somewhere that he might be better suited to one of the other races over the national fences (not Becher Chase) or one of the other nationals. Memory fails me at the moment.
Tricky Trickster – Much more like it. Dosage figures look good for this one; fear he may fall short on a number of other stats however? Ultimately he may prove better than a national horse anyway?
Cheers
Ben
#156
October 12th, 2009 17:52
yeah, completely agree, Tricky Trickster much better than a horse for the national. I think the owners and nicholls have completely underestimated his ability – look at the horses he beat at Cheltenham and what they have gone on to do. Should aim for the Gold cup with him in my opinion. Nicholls has said he will run him over hurdles till weights are out and then Gold cup, wouldnt be at all surprised to see him run close to be honest
#157
October 12th, 2009 18:06
In some weird way it is more important to have more race experience under your belt to succeed in the National than is needed to succeed in the Gold Cup (unique fences being the main reason). It is also much more likely that a 7 year old will win the Gold Cup rather than the National. I fear P Nicholls is going down the wrong path with this new recruit….then again he is the champion trainer, not me!
Regards
Ben
#158
October 12th, 2009 18:16
My gut reaction to Big Fella Thanks is the same as yours, Ben. As I reported earlier, (don’t know which thread, it might have been this one), Big Fella Thanks came to my attention when selected by Tom Segal. Studied it next run and thought not this year.
To be honest though Tom seems to be “anti-trend.*” In a race which the trends pick most of the winners because you got a very unique race; largest field (upto forty), running over the maximum distance (4 miles 4 furlongs), jumping the hardest fences (14 twice+ chair and water).
*(I know Anti-trend is not a word but I think you get my meaning).
As for Tricky Trickster I heard on here that Mc Cain was interested in him, probably a bit young yet.
#159
October 12th, 2009 19:04
Nicholls may be the champion trainer, but i’m not sure he knows what it takes to have a grand national winner. If the TT stayed with Twister then i think he would have been a winner in a couple of years time
#160
October 12th, 2009 19:25
For me TT is at least 10-14lb off being up to Gold Cup class after his first season
He has no Grade 1 experience either
I wouldn’t touch him with a bargepole for the Gold Cup
For me he’s no value whatsoever for the GN 2010 either until I’ve seen him run again – don’t like using one piece of form in an Amateur event as the basis for winning a tough test of endurance against horses with a more conventional preparation (RSA, Irish National, Hennessy or Welsh National better than National Hunt for a younger horse)
#161
October 12th, 2009 19:38
You are correct Pablo.
I think what I am trying to say is that Nicholls should forget about preserving TT’s handicap mark and stick him in races like the Charlie Hall, the Hennessey or the Cotswolds Chase. This way if he falls short of Gold Cup level he could prepare him for the National without too much damage to his hcp mark. If however he were to show good enough to take one of the previously mentioned races he could potentially have Kauto/Denman’s successor on his hands? All speculation of course and he may not be good enough for either.
What I can say is that on breeding, the Gold Cup and/or National should be no problem.
Regards
http://narrowingthefield.blogspot.com/
#162
October 12th, 2009 21:36
Just watched the Alan King stable tour on the RP, Ones to follow for me are mille chief for the triumph and medermit in the arkle.
Also mentioned Old Benny is back and already mentioned him as a horse that could possibly have aintree in mind
#163
October 13th, 2009 01:41
Didn’t Paul Nicholls say he thought the Gold Cup was a good prep race for the National? I think if I had a National horse he would be the last trainer I would send him to! Old Benny is interesting; wasn’t it the 4 miler he won at Cheltenham? What age is he now?
#164
October 13th, 2009 06:51
Old benny was foaled 18th May 2001 making him 8, he won the 4 miler in the 2008 Cheltenham Festival, but his last race was the 2008 Scottish National (won by Iris De Balme), he was 4th, with more than a year off the signs are not good.
#165
October 13th, 2009 07:06
King said that Old Benny would need a run or two to get fitter but he’s well
#166
October 13th, 2009 07:52
Old Benny had 15 runs in his lifetime so is under exposed and needs 3 runs to get fit for a 4 miler. According to your article, Pablo.
#167
October 13th, 2009 08:06
“I think what I am trying to say is that Nicholls should forget about preserving TT’s handicap mark and stick him in races like the Charlie Hall, the Hennessey or the Cotswolds Chase. This way if he falls short of Gold Cup level he could prepare him for the National without too much damage to his hcp mark.”
I’m not so sure about that Ben! He’s rated 148 now and if he were to win the Hennessy would go up 7-10lbs straight away. Similarly he could find himself creeping up the weights without winning if he finishes close-up to Grade 1 horses in races like the Charlie Hall or Cotswold Chase. I would be tempted to run him in a chase or two over 2m-2m4f to get some more experience over fences with less chance of him winning.
#168
October 13th, 2009 09:46
“Old Benny had 15 runs in his lifetime so is under exposed and needs 3 runs to get fit for a 4 miler. According to your article, Pablo.”
Neil – what I meant was that Alan King said that he’d need one or two runs to do himself justice and the Welsh National is a possible target – so the likelihood is he’ll have 4-6 runs over the season anyway before GN.
King waiting for jumping ground before running though – dry spell needs to end first. He might get dropped a few pounds for being off injured.
Not sure that I agree with everything in the article but I thought the point about older horses and more exposed horses needing more time to get fit makes sense.
#169
October 13th, 2009 09:59
Two recommendations:
1) One Jump Ahead by Mark Howard (£7.99)
Interviews with stables – Nicholls, Henderson, Hobbs, Jefferson, King, Lavelle, McCain, Willie Mullins, Richards
Plus Harry Findlay & Irish horses to follow
2) Horse tracker at http://www.irishracing.com
Let’s you select (I think) up to 150 horses (Irish and UK) and will email you links to entries, declarations & results for your selected horses…and all for free!
#170
October 13th, 2009 11:44
Pablo
I think TT is a ‘Tricky’ horse to assess. The horse needs more experience, this is fact. If he were to run in the Hennessey and win then yes he would rise in the weights and Mr Nicholls could consider a more high profile campaign. If he were to run in the Hennessey and finish down the field then his handicap mark would remain unchanged and he would have gained some top level experience in a competitive handicap.
If Nicholls thinks this is a serious national hope then he needs to get some top class experience into this gelding asap. Running it over hurdles is going to do nothing for it.
#171
October 13th, 2009 12:22
In handicapping terms TT has gone up 20lb for winning an amateur event
This new mark will be tough to overcome unless he is a very decent horse
He might turn out to be but it could be said that Drumconvis (made a few too many errors) and Can’t Buy Time (didn’t get the trip at Cheltenham) both travelled with much more class in the Cheltenham race
Drumconvis (RIP) was also a fair way off top class as a Novice last season
TT has it all to prove to me
#172
October 13th, 2009 12:41
I would totally agree with your last post Pablo.
Tricky Trickster looks to have been harshly treated having gone up 20lbs for winning a Class 2 novice chase. Ok he won by 10l but around 4m of Cheltenham some of the other horses clearly didn’t stay and others wouldn’t have coped with the unique challenge that the course provides. I think the margin of victory flattered Tricky Trickster who clearly did get the trip and handle the course well.
Clearly as a 6yo he’s open to improvement but he has no form in Class 1 races and no form in any kind of Graded contest. 148 puts only 5lbs below Gone To Lunch (another novice from last season), and Gone To Lunch has top class (Grade 1) hurdles and fences form in the book. It will be tough for TT to live up to his new rating I think.
#173
October 13th, 2009 16:51
I know the 4 miler at cheltenham may have been a novice race, but he won so convincingly, comfortably beating an irish grand national winner and the betfred winner. Nicholls should aim this one at the higher profile races, he’s still only 5-6. I think he is going to end up a horse rated 160 ish. Too high in weights for handicaps but not quite good enough at the top level.
I think they should aim for the big priaes and even he isnt good enough, they’ve got 2-3 years to bring his mark down
#174
October 13th, 2009 17:25
The Stayer/TC
You both make valid points there.
I’m slightly siding with you TC. It is his age that sways me towards the idea of aiming him at higher profile races. Putting him in this years national could ruin the horse. It is a daunting enough challenge for an experienced chaser yet alone a young chaser with little races under his belt.
As TC states, if he turns out not to be good enough for the Grade 1 races they have plenty of time to get his mark back down.
#175
October 13th, 2009 17:36
I don’t know what to make of Hennessy – thought that the BetFred was a really poor race this year (wrong time of year for the better horses these days) and AP MCcoy gave him an unbelievable ride (thankfully)
Niche Market’s best form is on flatter, galloping tracks – not an undulating track like Cheltenham and he was tested at a high level last season gaining valuable experience on the way
Hedgehunter was well beaten in the same race and Silver Birch came 4th in it – the difference being that they contested races like the Hennessy, Welsh National and Becher the next season – so the 4-miler was a stepping stone to better things and all part of the learning curve for a young horse
I agree that by keeping an inexperienced horse like TT to hurdles until after weights out seems to be depriving him of experience – maybe they are getting greedy by going too early for the race?
Or maybe he’s a monster… time will tell
#176
October 13th, 2009 19:16
Irish-racing.com an excellent site, Pablo, as well as keeping track of 150 horses per e-mail address, giving you five day declarers, on the day runners, results of your horses with a 3 day link. You can also put small notes against each horse and rate them.
Also gives you horses to watch out for and full cards for irish racing, thats how I knew the going for Kerry National.
As for one jump ahead an excellent read, was reading it myself in my local smiths. That how I knew about Paul Nicholls runs, but Timeform will always be mine number one.
Can’t wait for Ben’s Book (I apologist for sounding like an advert.)
#177
October 13th, 2009 19:19
Although the best buy in books was How To Win on the Grand National, a booklet I refer to on this site and cost me £2.95 but won hundreds of pounds from.
#178
October 13th, 2009 20:06
Neil
Dont worry, I have no problem with you sounding like an advert
Pablo
I’m also unsure of what to make of Hennessy. I dont think he will progress this season…. Is he now with N Twiston Davies?
#179
October 13th, 2009 20:18
No, but Roll Along is with NTD
But Hennessy and the other horses owned by Malcolm Denmark are now being trained by Warren Greatrex I think (at the stables where Llewellyn trained them)
#180
October 14th, 2009 07:57
Never been convinced by Roll Along. Looks like a horse that needs everything to fall into place. I know some people think he is a National type but on Dosage alone he is wide of the mark. If memory serves me correct he is also pretty high in the handicap for what he has achieved.
Regards
Ben Aitken
Narrowing the Field
#181
October 14th, 2009 08:21
Some great input everyone. Keep it up!
Pablo, thanks for listing current ‘weights’. It does clarify thoughts and hunches. The only two 100% at this stage I can find on that list, with a decent weight, are Cornish Sett and Comply Or Die.
Neil, I agree with you that things do seem to go in cycles in the National. We get an 8yr old/ 12 yr old winner at least once a decade and 11 yr olds, generally, have a good record, four since 1990 but none since 2001. The longest losing streak based on age.
#182
October 14th, 2009 16:45
In last post meant to say ‘the only two 100% trend horses at this stage’. Character Building also has 100% trends but his 56 – 44 speed to stamina percentage is not ideal. Church Island is another 100% trend horse but still no quotes for him at bookies.
Will we have a double winner in Comply Or Die? The leading fancy at this stage? And what with all four placed horses carrying 11st+ in 2009, first time since 1950, horses rated in the mid to high 160′s might be entered this year.
#183
October 15th, 2009 07:54
I know one or two posters on here like Surface to Air as a potential National candiate. Looks like he’s out for another season unfortunately.
SURFACE TO AIR, who has not raced since completing a hat-trick when landing the Britannia Building Soceity English Summer National at Uttoxeter in June 2008, will not return this term due to a recurrence of a tendon injury.
Surface To Air had been pin fired to mend the injury that was sustained after that Listed success, and trainer Chris Bealby was looking forward to campaigning him in major staying handicap chases this term, with the Coral Welsh National and John Smith’s Grand National as possible targets.
However, the long-term leg problem returned and connections have decided to give Surface To Air a year off.
“He came back to us in July looking magnificent,” said Bealby, “but then we were cantering him and the heat in his leg came back.
“He was never actually lame and the leg seems fine at the moment, but the scans showed a problem and so he’s having stem-cell treatment to try and get him back on the track next season.
“He’s got very patient owners and we’ll do everything we can.”
#184
October 15th, 2009 12:00
Worth mentioning that some possible National candidates will be on course over the next few days.
Today we have a 3m1f Gd 3 Chase at Punchestown featuring Casey Jones, One Cool Cookie, Chelsea Harbour and Royal County Star and tomorrow there is a 3m Class 2 Chase at Cheltenham with Parson’s Legacy, Always Waining, Maljimar and Boychuk among the final decs. Hopefully we will be able to learn something.
#185
October 15th, 2009 13:03
Crisp – two questions
I have Butlers Cabin down as a good prospect too – does he fall down on any of your stats?
Does Niche Market only fall down on strike rate? He has been highly tried (interesting choice of races) and had absolutely no chance on the book against Neptune Collonges or Madison Du Berlais – but I guess a stat is a stat
#186
October 15th, 2009 13:20
Stayer, I remember you talking well of Maljimar. Another chase win, at 3miles or more, would be his third and that would make him very nearly perfect on trends- Becher, Hennessey or Welsh Nat place this Autumn? His speed/stamina percentage in his dosage is 50 – 50 which very much fits the pattern of previous winners. Another positive is he has placed at the furthest distance he’s ran.
Casey Jones also needs another chase win.
#187
October 15th, 2009 13:51
Pablo, you’re right, Butlers is of course spot on. (think I actually wrote this after this year’s race!)
His speed/stamina percentage is 56-44 is not ideal, like Character Building, though not far from Hedgehunter’s 54-46.
Niche Market does fall down on that win/place strike rate
(also needs another chase win) as 19/19 GN winners have had a 47% s/r by the end of May the year before their win. I make his 38%.
In my ‘speed/stamina percentage’ profile though his is 38-62, perfect for 1990 – 2009 winning profiles.
#188
October 15th, 2009 14:24
Crisp,
Yes, Maljimar could potentially be interesting. He’s the right age, on the right sort of rating and does have a decent win and place s/r over fences. Most of his racing has been done over 2m4f/2m5f but stepped up to 3m1f well in the William Hill only being mugged on the line by Wichita Lineman. Not sure if he didn’t quite get up the hill or if he idled in front a bit but he travelled very well through the race that day. I think that bold show over 3m persuaded connections to let him go for the National but he just missed the cut and ran in the 3m chase on National day instead. He ran a bit of shocker there but in his defence only 5 horses completed that race with most horses pulling-up, so it was a strange contest. He’s worth another go over 3m and he loves Cheltenham so it will be interesting to see how he goes tomorrow.
#189
October 15th, 2009 15:42
Maljimar was not a horse I had considered for the national. His Dosage rating sits nicely alongside previous winners so on that front he is a positive. My one concern is that, similar to Character Building, he looks a tricky ride. He travelled like a dream in the William Hill only to idle in front (not advisable when A P McCoy is throwing everything AND the kitchen sink at his horse in behind!). As we know, its a long way from the last to the winning post in the National and Maljimar would have plenty of time to decide if he wanted to idle or not. I am not ruling him out of calculations however……….
#190
October 15th, 2009 16:27
Far too early to rule anything out (several ran poorly) but I was very impressed with Casey Jones today – interested to see his revised mark – gather he is to go to the Hennessy – a top 5 finish (without winning) and he’d probably be handicapped to play a big part in GN 2010
The ground was yielding today and will be watered at Aintree so going shouldn’t be a problem
#191
October 15th, 2009 17:11
Casey Jones ran very well. He jumped left-handed at a couple of fences so a course like Aintree should suit more than Punchestown. Offshore Account ran well for a long way but came to a virtual walk at the end. Maybe his stamina gave out or it could be that he needed the run. Another run will give us a better indication. Royal County Star ran a tame race. Another Tony Martin short-priced favourite to run like a drain. I can’t see this horse troubling the judge in a National. He still hits too many fences and at his age isn’t going to improve in that department.
#192
October 15th, 2009 19:41
Casey Jones (seemed to remember a TV series called that, showing my age there.) his rating is 145 will have his RPR probably after Wednesday.
Link here for Casey Jones story http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/10/15/_RACING_Punchestown.html
Just in case this link doesn’t work I will summarise it.
Noel Meade is now eyeing the Hennessy at Newbury after this win, winning a Grade 1 Novice race last year had something to prove when pulled up at Fairyhouse (Irish National). Here he was sent off at 7/2 and travelled zestfully thoughout. One Cool Cookie had a slight lead jumping the third last, but Paul (Carberry) was confident and sat motionless behind.
When ask to lengthen the response was impressive, forging clear between the final two obstacles. Beating Kilcrea Castle by one and half lengths.
Meade was delighted and quoted as saying.
“He jumped brilliant and I suppose we’ll go ahead with Plan A now and enter him for the Hennessy (Newbury).
Hopefully Denman runs so we get in sitting on the bottom.
It depends what way the weights work out but if he gets in with a reasonable racing weight we’d have to think about it.
He doesn’t like the ground too soft and he stays well. Some day he might be a NATIONAL horse and he’s a horse you could be thinking about AINTREE with. “
#193
October 15th, 2009 20:00
Casey Jones Doasge Profile 2-0-10-8-2 (22) DI=0.47 CD-0.36
Of of his great grandsire being Northern Dancer (grandsire Sadler’s Wells ) you know he has class, but Ben how does he stack up against other National winners?
#194
October 15th, 2009 20:02
Neil
Casey Jones is a Johnny Cash song. Dont remember a Tv Prog but think you have a few years on me
#195
October 15th, 2009 20:17
Neil
Casey Jones (the horse!) looks to have the right kind of Dosage Profile to be a national winner. Northern Dancer supplies the speed points in Casey Jones’ profile, a trait that looks important for national winners these days. I remember watching him win his bumper under Nina Carberry, always been a horse with potential.
#196
October 15th, 2009 20:36
Thanks Ben and thanks Stayer on the news about Surface To Air.
#197
October 15th, 2009 20:51
Neil, ‘Casey Jones, steaming and a rolling’, I remember watching that in the mid 70′s, staple summer holiday/ christmas holiday morning tv. Speed/ stamina percentage 32-68, suggests no trouble staying four and a half miles.
CJ’s trainer Noel Meade, “He doesn’t like the ground too soft and he stays well. Some day he might be a National horse and he’s a horse you could be thinking about Aintree with.”
CJ – ( I didnt’ get where I am today, Reggie) ticks all the boxes now apart from a win or place in a key race/Hennessey etc.
#198
October 15th, 2009 22:47
Ben, yes I’ve probably have left a summary of past winners I’ve backed on the “Grand National History” Category, thread “Favourite Grand National Heroes”, message 20 posted on April 24, 2009 at 9:45 PM. (NO IDEA WHO THE OTHER NEIL IS?)
Also on the “Red Rum-Is he over rated?” thread message 12 posted at April 17, 2009 at 7:06 PM and message 14 posted at April 26, 2009 at 11:59 AM (AGAIN NO IDEA WHO THE OTHER NEIL IS?)
Check them out if you like.
Crisp 73 (smashing, great, super.) Another reference to Fall And Rise Of Reginald Perrin starring the late great Leonard Rossiter,
but lets get back on track here, any once a year punters who makes a connection like that,( TV Series, Song, Name of Family, etc) is going to force the price down.
#199
October 16th, 2009 06:36
For me Casey Jones is not a perfect candidate, because of the fact that he was a novice last season, but sounds as if I should be making him an exception. Will keep an eye on him over the season.
#200
October 16th, 2009 09:08
Neil – I’m not worried about the fact that Casey Jones was a Novice last season
Bindaree (2002) was a Novice in 2001 & 4th in Topham (subsequently 5th in Hennessy & 3rd Welsh National)
Numbersixvalverde (2006) was a Novice in 2005 & won Irish National (subsequently campaigned to keep his mark at a reasonable level)
Casey Jones won a Grade 1 beating Trafford Lad last season and was a fast-finishing 5th in the RSA at the Festival.
With a strong performance in the Hennessy and given a reasonable handicap mark for GN 2010, he looks right up there for me as a very strong contender.
#201
October 16th, 2009 16:51
Neil “Casey Jones (seemed to remember a TV series called that, showing my age there.) his rating is 145 will have his RPR probably after Wednesday.”
Neil/others do we now have the RPR for Casey Jones(I dont have a subscription to RP site – they changed the rules this year, you now have to pay to see RPR’s!!)? Presumeably we dont want CJ’s rating to go up much if at all. Around 145 (10.08 if Mon Mome is 161 – 11′10 ) looks a winning OR to me (I’am looking at 138 to 148 [150 top]for the GN 2010 winner but will not exclude anything at this stage).
#202
October 16th, 2009 17:09
Systemsman neither do I, (have a subscription to racing post on line). I do however buy the racing post weekender mid week. If anyone wants to beat me to it your welcome.
#203
October 16th, 2009 18:34
I would like to know his RPR as well, does any one know of todays Grand National hopefuls. I know one came second but thats all I know. Thanking you in advance.
#204
October 16th, 2009 19:02
Maljimar caught up the Cheltenham hill in todays race, AGAIN by A P McCoy! Does he idle? Does he not like the hill? Whatever it is A P McCoy loves chasing him down after the last!
#205
October 16th, 2009 19:09
Just one point about Casey Jones his trainer was quoted as saying.
“He doesn’t like the ground too soft and he stays well.”
Well I looked over his racing record on sporting life site to discover that he has won on heavy over two and half miles at Punchestown, beating seventeen other horses with eleven stone twelve on his back (first time tongue tie), in a beginners chase.
#206
October 16th, 2009 21:48
Yeah, certainly looked like maljimar tired to me, i’m not convinced he would get the GN trip, although it was his first run of the season. Parsons Legacy, although finished 5th came home like a train, clearly needs a longer trip and i think he may go for the scots nat again next april.
Snap Tie didnt look too impressive either, Pigeon Island would have beat him had they not come together at the 3rd last
#207
October 17th, 2009 09:10
Yeah I like Maljimar but I think he looks an unlikely National winner. Still question marks over his stamina and he also clouts the odd one which he probably wouldn’t get away with at Aintree.
#208
October 17th, 2009 11:14
I thought Always Waining was quite impressive until he fell. The fast ground suited AW. His trainer seems intent on sending him to the National. He’s very well-handicapped on his best form – so worth looking out for on good ground – but I very much doubt he’s classy enough to win the GN.
#209
October 17th, 2009 11:38
I agree, Always Waining would have won, his form over the longer distances is very poor though. might be a national contender though, think he might be over raced though come april
#210
October 17th, 2009 13:14
Manage to get Casey jones rating for the Punchestown race it was 152
#211
October 17th, 2009 21:08
So far my list for horses on this year’s performance is Backstage and Casey Jones. Although I didn’t see CJ run I liked what I read and also a lot of you lot seemed really taken with what you saw. Also on last year’s performance I liked Comply Or Die and Irish National winner Niche Market must be followed closely this year. Keeping tabs on State of Play as well. Can’t wait for Hennessy and the Welsh National for more possibilties.
#212
October 18th, 2009 10:58
CJ has only upped his TS from 108 to 110. This figure is still low compared with previous winners. A question. What exactly do the figures in ‘top speed’ mean? Are they figures for ‘sprint / quickening up’ or ‘cruising speed’?
Church Island, Comply Or Die, Gone To Lunch, Casey Jones, Arbor Supreme, Butlers Cabin currently at the top of my list.
#213
October 18th, 2009 11:31
Crisp – I never use Topspeed because I don’t understand the basis of it – especially dodgy for races in Ireland I think. RPR is easier to comprehend.
Casey Jones’ time was 4 seconds faster than standard time.
For what it’s worth, Monty’s Pass had the lowest Topspeed going into the race of any National winner I think and yet won the race oh so easily.
#214
October 18th, 2009 21:16
Crisp I don’t know what Top Speed is but assumed it was overall time to run a race, expressed as a figure with going allowance and adjusted to weight of twelve stone. Rating are useful but race description also give useful as well. Racing Post ratings give a sense of class, just as Timeform ratings does. At least that’s what I assume; but to quote Stephen King. ” Assume makes an ass out of u and me.”
#215
October 19th, 2009 07:50
I’m not sure how the Topspeed figures are calculated either. I too noticed that the time was 4s faster than standard, and with 11-10 on his back that seems to be a decent time at face value.
#216
October 19th, 2009 09:37
What Casey Jones does lack is a decent performance in a big field handicap (or key race), which all other winners since 1990 had.
Should he achieve that then I think the Topspeed will take care of itself since the majority of handicaps are run at a fair pace.
But he needs to start running in handicaps – perhaps starting with the Hennessy.
#217
October 19th, 2009 20:03
Taking the lesson of Mon Mome and the fact it finished second in a welsh national a few years before winning the current english national, I taken a list of horses who since 2004 came in the top 5 of the Hennessy.
This list does not take into account their present handicap mark, or if they are still racing, or even if connections prefer the Grand National, its just a list so we might get a few ideas.
From 2008 we have Madison Du Berlais (9), Air Force One (8), Snoopy Loopy (12), Dear Villez (8), My Will (8).
From 2007 we have Denman (10), Dream Alliance (9), Character Building (10), Madison Du Berlais (9), Knowhere (12).
From 2006 we have State Of Play (10), Juveigneur (13), Precher Boy (11), Omni Cosmo Touch (14), Parson Legacy (12)
From 2005 we have Trabolgan (12), L’ Ami (11), Cornish Rebel (13), Comply Or Die (11), All In The Stars (12)
From 2004 we have Celestial Gold (12), Ollie Magern (12), Royal Auclair (13), Lord Transcend (13), Gunther McBride (15)
The figure in brackets is the age of the horse next Grand National meeting.
#218
October 19th, 2009 20:53
Can’t see a winner coming out of those hennessy placings. The only 2that might be worth considering is dear villez and Character Building
Has Dream Alliance been retired?
The welsh national placings is the one to follow i feel and the only one i can find in there would be Over the creek. Horses who run well in the Irish GN seemed know to be getting poorly handicapped.
Be interesting to see what mark Gone to Lunch will have in April although i think it will be too high.
All in all i think that Irish raiders are going to be very strong in the national, slightly gone of Arbor Supreme as he’s a very much a hold up horse and ran into a lot of Traffic in the Irish national, although i think Ruby will give us the answer to his national chances
#219
October 19th, 2009 21:37
Some in the list could be died. I assume that applies to L’ Ami while others are too old. Like I said its just a list to give us a few ideas.
#220
October 19th, 2009 21:48
L’ami has definitely not died!
Flintoff is going for the Welsh national according to Tim Vaughan
Has anyone got news on Iris De Balme?
#221
October 19th, 2009 23:08
Church Island, Comply Or Die, Gone To Lunch, Casey Jones, Arbor Supreme, Butlers Cabin
I would add Russian Trigger, Offshore Account, Old Benny & Over The Creek to Crisp’s list above to make 10 at this point in time
Also Chiaro mentioned on Philip Hobbs stable tour on RPTV – possibly going for a staying Cheltenham handicap in a few weeks
#222
October 20th, 2009 08:48
Hi!
Has anyone got any trends for the Aintree meeting this Sat???
Cheers!
#223
October 20th, 2009 09:01
Matriarch
I might have some stats on my blog this weekend for the Aintree meeting although the Old Roan Chase does not really give me enough renewals to apply Dosage stats, likewise with the 2 mile Novice Chase. A high % of horses will be running fresh this weekend so it is an idea to check their runs after a break/seasonal debut stats. This would have pointed you towards Knowhere last season in the Old Roan.
http://narrowingthefield.blogspot.com/
#224
October 21st, 2009 08:29
Slight correction to casey jones RPR its 155, TS is 110.
#225
October 22nd, 2009 15:41
Could be an interesting 25f C2 chase at Aintree Saturday.
Lacdoudal has a very good profile and looks very good, in my opinion on speed/stamina percentage, 44-56, in his dosage. For me he needs to win another 24f+ chase to meet my winner profile criteria, though he has won at 30f and has placed in the C1 Racing Post chase at Kempton which would surely merit him serious consideration anyway. The win though would however satisfy another strong trend, 39/40, 27/27, a win in one of it’s last ten chases. He has now gone ten without winning.
I’m sure that I read somewhere last April that connections were very unsure about Lacdoudal running in the National. May be frenchie Mon Mome’s victory has changed their mind.
#226
October 22nd, 2009 16:59
I’ve always liked Lacdoudal and have been surprised that the stable have seemed uncertain about the National in the past. I just wonder if the Hobbs yard is not a great fan of the National in general and sometimes that uncertainty filters through to the horse or jockey or both.
I’ve been doing some preliminary work on some info that will be available in the near future on GNG regarding trainer and jockey form in recent Nationals and since Whats Up Boys 2nd placing in 2002, Philip Hobbs has failed to have a horse complete the course in the National.
Would our readers find that surprising? Three of those years he was without a runner and the six horses he has run in the other years have failed to complete including the likes of the well fancied Parsons Legacy and Monkerhostin.
Also, for potential backers of Alan King’s Old Benny, that stable have also often seemed reluctant to focus their best chasers at the National and whilst Mr King has suggested Old Benny is heading to Aintree it seems odd that one of the highest ranking stables in the country has had only four runners in the National since 2002.
If a top class stable was having a bad run with its runners in the National would that be a consideration for you if you were intending to back one of their runners for the next Grand National?
#227
October 22nd, 2009 20:52
I posted this on page 1 of the thread:
“I’ve been having a look at some of the horses on Pablo’s shortlist and a couple jumped out at me, one of which was LACDOUDAL. It’s easy to make a case for this one:
- will be 11 next April
- winner of a key race with 18 runners (hence a Class 1 Chase winner)
- winner of 4 chases total
- winner over 30f
- Top 3 finish in 20/28 chases including several in Class 1 races
- Only fallen once (In France in 2003 before he came to GB)
- OR 140
- RPR >145
Those are the stats but he’s also been placed at Aintree (Mildmay) a few times and likes good ground. He’s got a lot going for him. His highest rating was 156 and has won off 152 so now he’s down on 140 he could be well handicapped. Was off the course for over a year but after a pipe opener over hurdles last December put in 4 solid enough efforts over fences including a 6th in the William Hill at Cheltenham and 3rd in the Bet365. He’s very interesting.”
I think the problem could be his owners. I’m pretty sure I have read in the past that they are not keen on the race. However, that sometimes changes as horses get older. Some owners aren’t keen on running young horses in the race but take the plunge when the horse is getting towards the end of it’s career. He looks ideally suited to the race to me so I hope he does take his chance.
#228
October 22nd, 2009 23:27
Crisp 73 I think Lacdoudal is a non-starter, at least in terms of the National. I think that his owner(s)/trainer is not just against Lacdoudal running in the National, but even running on the National course. Of course this is just my interpretation of his form so far.
He had three runs so far and they all been on the smaller, easier, mildmay course.
Race 1 with a rating of 146 was on the 8th of april 2005. He was 4th of 10 in the John Smith’s Mildmay Novice Chase, a grade 2 race over 3 miles 1 furlong, beaten 33 1/4 lengths by Like A Butterfly, See You Sometime & L’ Ami. The going was good & the race report went like:
“Held up, headway 12th, ridden to chase leaders 3 out, 2 after next, soon weakened.”
Race 2 with a rating of 152 was on the 7th of april 2006. This time finishing 2nd of 18 to State Of Play, beaten 16 lengths, same conditions as above, in the Betfair.com Handicap Chase. The going this time was good, good to soft in places. The race report was:
“Mid division, headway 13th, chased winner approaching 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, weakened last.”
Race 3 with a rating of 149 was on the 13th april 2007. Same race, same conditions as above, finishing 3rd of 18 to Reveillez & Lankawi by 9 1/2 lengths, going good. Race report reads as:
“Chased leaders, ridden approaching 3 out, kept on same pace.”
His highest winning mark being 152, which was also the last time he won in the Betfred Gold Cup of 2006, his present mark being 140 same race 2009 where he finished 3rd.
In my opinion he lacks a turn of foot at the end of his race.
#229
October 22nd, 2009 23:32
Although if I see a report from his trainer (P J Hobbs) in my racing paper I will post it on here (ASAP).
#230
October 23rd, 2009 07:34
Neil
I wouldnt class Lacdoudal as a non-stayer. In fact I’ve always thought the further the better for the Hobbs grey. He is also currently rated below his previous highest winning mark so is handicapped to win (in theory).
#231
October 23rd, 2009 09:25
this is straight from the racing post, quote regarding lacdoudal
24Feb07 Kempton (24Sft ,RPR156)
He tried his heart as always, and is a star. He is still in the William Hill but we will bypass the Grand National and run him again in the Betfred. – Sarah Hobbs, trainer’s wife
29Apr06 Sandown (30GF ,RPR164)
Mr Fluffy was one ofthe few horses I didn`t want to follow, but it was just one of those things. It was a very hairy moment, and it was touch and go if we stayed in the race, because my saddle slipped a bit and I nearly lost my balance. But all credit to Lacdoudal, who was very nimble in sidestepping him and jumped the next fence as if nothing had happened. It wasn`t ideal taking it up so early, but he`d done it before at Sandown and the more I asked the more he gave. He`s so genuine, and he deserved that after Cheltenham and Aintree. – Richard Johnson, jockey; I thought Richard was a bit brave going on when he did, as we didn`t know if he`d get the trip properly, but he stayed on very well. He would have been well handicapped in the National, but his owner Roger Skan didn`t want to run him and made me take him out at the first stage. He`s the sort of horse who could take to it next year though, as he jumps so well and he loves this ground. – Philip Hobbs, trainer
Connections have clearly thought about it and i wouldnt say it is a non starter, it may be that now he is older they may take more of a risk with hime. he’s also pretty well handicapped now
#232
October 23rd, 2009 11:37
Does anybody know if Over the Creek is in training for this years season. Hes my dark horse for the Nat . I dont see him however in the early betting exchanges on betfair for Aintree . Anybody got any contacts that could shed some light on this ?
My current shortlist albeit very early days
Niche Market
Over the Creek
Character Building
Dear Villez
#233
October 23rd, 2009 13:50
Thanks for comments guys. Stayer/Pablo I did read your previous comments I only mentioned Lacdoudal again purely because of his intended race on Saturday.
Neil, do you think Lacdoudal is not quite at his best racing left handed? If so you may have a point. I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he would stay 36f.
#234
October 23rd, 2009 14:39
Whilst his biggestu career win has come on a right handed track he has run some very good races at Cheltenham. Both courses have an uphill finish which gives further indication that this horse finishes his races well.
#235
October 23rd, 2009 18:43
Crisp 73 I don’t think left or right handed tracks matter, out of 35 runs he’s had 7 wins, 8 seconds and 7 thirds, his strike rate is 20 per cent and you be showing a profit of £12 against a £1 level stake. All this info and the previous info in my other post I found using the sporting life website.
Those 7 wins 2 have been at Kempton, 2 at Sandown, the rest at Cheltenham, Chepstow and Doncaster, so he won equally well going both ways. The main distance seems to be 2 1/2 miles give or take a furlong, the expections are a 2 mile novice hurdle at the start of his career, 3 miles and 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown.
The 3 mile race was a small field and the 3 mile 5 furlong race (the betfred gold cup) comes at the end of the season when everyone else has tried for Cheltenham or Aintree.
I think I have to agree with the stayer here, I think he probably better on an uphill finish, as I think he’s one pace. For the record I think the elbow might have helped him in the national.
#236
October 23rd, 2009 18:49
Hi Admin just thought I notify you to say our main thread is dropping again out of sight. I know now that its appeared on the popular section but I think if you keep it also in the recent post sections any new comers, or old friends returning would not be confused. THANK YOU!
#237
October 23rd, 2009 19:16
Silver Birch/ anyone else. If I see anything in my racing paper (Weekender) on any National hopefuls or any other runners you are interested in I will posted it on here (A.S.A.P.).
#238
October 23rd, 2009 19:28
Thanks Neil . much appreciated ….!
#239
October 23rd, 2009 19:39
Ben for the record I said non starter not non stayer, because I think Lacdoudal will by-pass the National. TC post confirms it, for me. The rest came from Sporting Life Website.
#240
October 24th, 2009 01:09
Beware of the horses quoted on Betfair for GN
I had a look at another site and someone there phoned or emailed Betfair and got horses added to the list (this lunatic has also bet on 20+ horses already)
So just because a horse is or is not currently quoted on Betfair is largely irrelevant – 40 horses will be lined up next April but remember that Betfair is increasingly used by bookies too
#241
October 24th, 2009 10:29
Good call Neil – I have bounced it to the top
Thanks
#242
October 24th, 2009 10:38
Sorry Neil
Need my eyes checked!
Will be interesting to see how Lacdou goes today. 10lbs claimed off his back will be a big advantage.
#243
October 24th, 2009 11:39
Whats interesting about Lacdoudal is why is his regular jockey not riding. Richard Johnson I assume? Is he hurt, or something.
#244
October 24th, 2009 12:17
hey everyone, I found you!
heard the magic word “aintree” and thought we’re off!
just looking back over recent posts, alot of chat about Casey Jones, did he win the other day?
I completely forgot to watch (or bet on) him.
#245
October 24th, 2009 12:19
You could say that.
#246
October 24th, 2009 12:29
Richie johnson isnt on lacdoudal today because he’s at chepstow. Notabotheronme must be the main fancy of the hobbs yard.
Giles Hawkins is more than capable of riding ladoudal to victoty though
#247
October 24th, 2009 12:37
Fundamentalist for me – looks well in and NTD in form
#248
October 24th, 2009 12:51
Winner did well – Fundamentalist jumped very poorly
Lacdoudal seems better with R Johnson on board but ran ok first time up
#249
October 24th, 2009 13:13
lacdoudal like you said Pablo did ok first time out,
emptied when asked to keep up with Lysander but still have hopes for longer distances, esp as he is apparently only 10 seems like he’s been around for ages.
Seemed quite small esp next to BBB didn’t he, I do prefer a big horse in the GN.
#250
October 24th, 2009 13:28
Unfortunately they’re not all as big as Party Politics, KJ!
#251
October 24th, 2009 17:48
Hi Ben, just placed an order for your book, looking forward to using it to crack The National and the other 142 races you say it could help me with.
Had a grey day today, by that I mean I backed Lacdoudal and Monet’s Garden. Pleased with Monet but like I said Lac was one pace. Still he looked to have a chance, but not today.
I just don’t see him winning at Liverpool, Maybe Sandown at the end of the season.
#252
October 25th, 2009 10:42
Many Thanks Neil
I hope you enjoy the stats available in my book. Any comments you have or improvements you think I could make to future issues please feel free to drop me an email.
Lacdoudal ran well for a long way yesterday but seemed to run out of puff over the last 2. Probably needs the 1st couple of runs these days. He is handicapped for a race somewhere, just not sure where? Welsh national? Aintree national? Scottish National? Whitbread?
Regards
#253
October 25th, 2009 19:59
Silver Birch – I’m a big fan of Over the Creek. He is still listed as in training on the Pipe web site but there is no mention of him over the last few months in Chester Barnes’ blog updates
I actually e-mailed the yard a few months ago and the reply I got was that they were hoping to get him fit for this campaign. Have heard nothing since though
#254
October 25th, 2009 20:27
Hi speedyseagull did they mention what races they were considering for Over The Creek. As this is a stable who is not afraid to send multiple entries for races like the national.
#255
October 25th, 2009 21:00
No they didn’t say Neil. Two years ago OTC was entered before the final declaration stage along with 6 or 7 other Johnson horses. They pulled OTC out which I guess was the right decision as COD won!
#256
October 26th, 2009 17:09
Interesting what admin said about the Hobbs stable not being too keen on the National, because I was about to say the same thing; a few years ago a horse of theirs that had I backed for the National ante post had been withdrawn for no reason and a friend of mine wrote to the stable and complained; the reply was that the owners didn’t want to run the horse, but if you didn’t enter you couldn’t run. I got the impression that they weren’t keen on the race, but perhaps some trainers are more persuasive than others? Over the years I’ve got quite good at knowing which horses are likely to run and which have been given an entry ‘just in case’. In those days I just assumed that, if a horse was down to run it was definate that it would run unless injury prevented it from doing so.
#257
October 26th, 2009 18:42
Maureen since I started betting in the early 80′s (National aside), the as been only one case, as far as I know, where the owners/trainer had been talked by the jockey into running a horse. The horse was Last Suspect who won the 1985 national at a tasty 50/1 ridden by Hywel Davies, trained by Tim Foster and owned by the Duchess of Westminster (and no I didn’t back it).
Learning what the trainer/owner thinks is just as important as any stats, Donald (Ginger) Mc Cain for instance is always keen to enter his horses and always think they have a chance.
Playing the Ante post game is wriggled with the possibility of the horse not making it through injury (or worse), unknownable goings, etc. Without the owner/trainer saying;
“I’am really not that keen on running my horse in the national, let’s pull him out.”
Still searching for any news on Over The Creek, as soon as I see anything I will posted it up.
#258
October 27th, 2009 13:22
Perhaps we should start a ‘which horses are actually going to run’ thread! imo Black Apalachi, State of Play and Character Building will be aimed at the race, whatever happens, so I may have a bet on them now. It’s stupid of me but I used to think how silly if was of people to back horses that were running from out of the handicap, but it never occurred to me that I was backing horses that were never going to run. However, these days I find that side of it as interesting as the race itself! I remember being at Cheltenham one year and heard Tony Dobbin say to connections [about signor El Betrutti who he had just ridden] ‘Grand National for this one’. Just goes to show what jockeys know! Didn’t the Duchess say that she only ran Last Suspect because she feared if she didn’t agree Hywel was going to burst into tears??
#259
October 27th, 2009 18:08
looks like willie mullins may have a huge year, after seeing his stable tour. Arbor supreme, ballytrim and Irish Invader are set to be aimed at the national.
Got a big chance in the arkle with kempes, and i think barker may prove to be too good for master minded in the champion chase
Anyone thinking that Big Bucks is the best antepost bet for the year had better have a rethink with fiveforthree staying over hurdles
On top of these, who all have great chances, i fully expect cooldine to take a lot of beating in the Gold Cup
#260
October 27th, 2009 18:33
oops, forgot to mention the fly
wonder what price you can get on willie mullins taking the big four at cheltenham and then the national
#261
October 27th, 2009 20:26
Hi Ben, Just thought I tell you that I’ve just recieved your book, can’t wait to try it out. Whose on the front?
Maureen I think that how Last Suspect got in, worked though. Although the duchess never ran a horse again in the national, or so I think, but could be wrong.
I find Pablo’s little piece interesting:
Beware of the horses quoted on Betfair for the GN
I had a look at another site and someone there phoned or emailed Betfair and got horses added to the list (this lunatic has bet 20+ horses already)
You learn something new everyday, thanks Pablo, I just thought that Betfair was more extensive than normal bookmakers.
#262
October 27th, 2009 21:38
From what I have read it sounds like Arbor Supreme will be the main Mullins contender – a horse I like – can’t see Irish Invader doing much better unless he is consistenly run over 3m+ rather than 2m+ – and I really don’t think that Ballytrim will be good enough – but ruling none of them out just yet
Interesting comeback run out for Cane Brake the other day – has some very decent form in Irish handicaps (winning Troytown & Paddy Power) and staying on never nearer 5th in Kauto Star’s first Gold Cup – could be one to keep an eye on (Taaffe got Slim Pickings placed twice two or three years ago)
#263
October 27th, 2009 21:45
Neil
Good Good. Royal Mail are back in business then!
Unbeleivably that is MASTER MINDED on the front cover! How the publishers got that I do not know.
Hope you enjoy it.
Pablo
On Dosage, Cane Brake is borderline. If he drops a few pounds he will be interesting (currently 150)from a handicap viewpoint.
http://narrowingthefield.blogspot.com/
#264
October 27th, 2009 22:38
Just to see if I got the hand of your book, Ben, I analysed the Persian War Novice Hurdle which ran at Chepstow on Saturday.
First DP 11/13 had 12 or more and 10/13 had 14 or more this elimates Bygones of Brid who has 6 and finished 4th.
DI 10/11 had 0.67 or better, 7/11 had 1.00 or better, none had a range between 1.11 and 1.79.
Majority Range between 0.67 to 1.80 (just over half).
This doesn’t seem to get rid of anything except Bygones of Brid
CD 10/11 had a CD of -0.15 or better, 8/11 had a CD of -0.05 or better, none had a CD of 0.19 to 0.49.
Majority Range -0.15 to 0.50.
This gets rid of Reve De Sivola (winner, boo hoo!), Bygones of Brid
(three strikes your out!!!), Pterodactyl
Leaving me with Frascati Park, Aiteen Thirythree, Dream Garden.
The winner seemed to be elimated, but with the exchanges these days a lay on Bygones of Brid could have been the best solution here after all you only give it two stars.
I know you add the running style and the sporting Life site (which is a free site) could be a useful alternative to RP.
#265
October 27th, 2009 23:58
Neil
As you mentioned, the Persian War Hurdle only gained a 2 star Dosage rating from me so it wasn’t the strongest race to start on. An early season novice hurdle with 6 runners on softening ground was not an ideal starting point unfortunately.
The main angle I took on this race revolved around running style & not Dosage (running style is mentioned in book for those of you that don’t have it). With 0/15 runnings going to front runners I did a small in-running lay of Frascati Park. I think he reached as low as 1.3 in running (I layed at 1.7). I did back Aiteen 13 as well as he passed Dosage stats but the less said about his run the better.
How you analysed the race above is indeed one way you could use the book and indeed probably the best way. You could of course narrow the field yourself using other methods and then use Dosage to split the runners you are left with.
The Wetherby races this weekend offer more solid stats to work with. Our old friend Church Island looks to be heading for the Charlie Hall.
#266
October 28th, 2009 00:13
I don’t know if anyone picked up the Racing Post today (Tuesday, October 27 ) but inside is an interesting guide for the Jumps. With some horses mentioned for the Grand National. Its too long here to go into. Will post soon. In the meantime I suggest either picking up a copy if you find it still on sale in a newsagent or ordering a back copy. The is news of Iris De Balme in it. Will post more later.
#267
October 28th, 2009 20:51
This post is for Ewok and TC who asked about Iris De Balme and anyone else who was wondering what had happen to the horse.
Hi guys, sorry it’s been so long but I bought the Racing Post yesterday from my local newsagent as I saw a jumps guide, in it the news of Iris De Balme.
Trained by Sean Curran Iris De Balme (Iris for short) is currently 9 would be 10 next national. Iris has been off the track since the Bet365 were he finished 4th. That was just after his victory in the Scottish National (SP 66/1) (I had him at 100/1, personally) his biggest win of his career.
To quote his trainer “He had just a touch of a ‘leg’ after Sandown and we didn’t want to any risks with him.
My vet, Michael O’ Gorman, said we should fire him and turn him away in the paddock for 12 months, and he’s had a nice relaxing time of it over the year.
He’s been back in work for 8 weeks now, roadwork & treadmill work and his legs feel good, EVERYTHING GOING THB WAY I LIKE. He quite lively when he’s out in the paddock and that’s a good sign.”
Curran won’t be risking iris on anything quicker than good going.
He’s hoping to get him racing around Mid-December, when he’ll probably aim for a hurdle race to help him get his eye in. Iris can still qualify for novice hurdle so the plenty of races for him, however for the chases all the big staying chases will be under consideration.
He says he might go for the Welsh National, but it not a definite target, other races are the Eider Chase, he says iris will have before that. His season target will be the Grand National.
With an OR of 144 Curran looks likely to make the cut, but the horse is not just about one race however prestigious.
Don’t know what Iris RPR is at the moment, maybe someone could enlighten us, but on the Dosage side DP=1,0,4,6,7 (18), DI=0.20 CD=-1.00 which if I not mistaken is within your winning perimeters, Ben.
#268
October 28th, 2009 21:32
Similar Dosage stats to Rough Quest and not far off Papillon, so yes he is in the mix.
I was at Ayr the day he won the Scottish National and you could have heard a pin drop when he stonked home in front.
As my mum texted me after the race “The winner fair took off at the end there”
#269
October 28th, 2009 21:46
That’s not the case at the bookmakers I was in (LADBROKES) When suddenly I realised that’s my horse taking the lead.
#270
October 28th, 2009 21:51
Got the tip off the weekender tipped by Andrew Barr.
#271
October 29th, 2009 20:02
Three from the Elliott yard (Silver Birch Trainer) who looks like being aimed at the National are, Silver Birch (himself), Gungadu (signed over from Paul Nicholls yard) and Backstage (an improving chaser who is owned by the staff at Elliot’s yard.
Elliot says
“He was brought by a businessman up in the north who had a few horses with us, and he gave him to the lads, so now I train him for the Capranny Staff Stable Syndicate. Touch wood, he’s an easy horse to train, very sound, clear-winded and never a day’s problem.
He was bought originally to go point to pointing and that worked out great – he won four and so we thought we’d have a crack at the Perth Gold Cup in the spring and he won that and then a novice hurdle at the same track in the summer.
The chase over two and three quarter miles in which he was third at Newton Abbot was a bit short for him, then he went back for the big race at Ffos Las in August and he hosed up in that.
He’s only seven, turning to eight, and he’s still improving horse, by the sire of this year’s Grand National winner. Talking to the english handicapper, he should get in under 11 stone, he’s jumped round the Foxhunters’ course already (8th in 2009) and we’re very happy with him.”
#272
October 29th, 2009 20:11
Elliot says about Silver Birch.
” Silver Birch is in good form, a lot better than he was this time last year. He looks better, feels better, his legs are good and he’s back in full work. With a bit of luck he’ll run a cross-country race at home on Sunday week and then come back to Cheltenham in November for their cross-country.
He hasn’t won for two years, so he could be well in, considering how well he ran in the National this year before falling and his second at Punchestown at the end of the season.”
#273
October 29th, 2009 20:18
Elliot says about Gungadu.
“I’d met Harry Findlay and Paul Barber at the races on and off and they were kind enough to send Gungadu to me for a change of scenery. Obviously he’s an exciting horse to have for two very high profile owners. He’ll probably reappesr in a couple of weeks and he looks to be going the right way.”
#274
October 29th, 2009 20:49
At the back of my guide the three possibles picked for National
Treacle, recommended 50/1 with william hills.
Nominated for the Hennessy and if he runs well, doesn’t have to win, his odds will tumble. His OR should be nudged upto 140 when the weights are published. Treacle is a improving sort on a steep upward curve.
Tricky Trickster
Looked a likely national candidate when he won the 4 miles national hunt chase at cheltenham and a lot of money was paid before switching him from Nigel Twiston-Davies to Paul Nicholls.
Nicholls wants to exploit a window of opportunity and will look to take advantage of a lenient handicap mark by protecting him.
He’s going to run him in hurdles until the weights are published.
This route is tried and tested by most successful Irish trainers and he only needs to stay healthy to be one of most talked about horses in February and March.
These two have already been discused elsewhere with exactly the same comments, warning about TT he can make the odd mistake at his obstacles, he got round in one piece in the four miler and Nicholls is a great man for getting his chasers to eliminate the silly mistakes from their game.
I don’t think he’s done much with Kauto’s Star. The horse still guesses at a least one, but has not fallen since falling in the Queen Mother Chase first year he went to the festival.
#275
October 29th, 2009 21:02
Last but not least Possol is recomended.
Young only seven, but with vast amount of experience over fences having had 15 starts. OR upto 151 following an impressive win at Perth on his final start last season, nearly gold cup standards (short by 10 pounds).
A chaser whose approaching his peak and if they shoot for gold in some early, better races, he will be weighted out of handicaps.
One possibility is to send him hurdling, but Daly (trainer) might take another way with him.
50/1 for Possol at Stan James and 25/1 about Tricky Trickster generally availible are recommeneded, however I don’t really know if I like to take any on.
#276
October 29th, 2009 23:02
Two from the McCain yard (who had Red Rum and Amberleigh House), well his father did.
Cloudy Lane will be 10
“What a star he has been for me. He won my first Cheltenham festival race, the Kim Muir, and has done me proud every season since. Last term he won the Peter Marsh before unseating in the Grand National. I’am not sure when he will be back, but he summered particularly well. We will wait until we know he is ready to run before making plans, but I’am sure he will be given a Grand National entry again as well as one in the Gold Cup.”
Idle Talk will be 11.
“Has won four times but never for me- in fact he hasn’t won since January 2006 and has never won a handicap chase. I think the handicapper has never really let him have a chance really. That said, he was second first time out last year at Carlisle when collared close home. As he appears to go best fresh I’am thinking of saving him for the Becher’s Chase (22 November) at Aintree. He needs good ground.
#277
October 30th, 2009 10:41
Some recent quotes from Venetia Williams, speaking about Mon Mome –
”I entered him in the Hennessy this morning,” she said. “He’s rated 161 so races are going to be a lot more limited for him this season and winning one is going to be a lot harder. I have had a conversation with the Handicapper Phil Smith and he has told me that is the minimum rating he will have for this season’s National. He said he will not go down whatever so there’s no point in trying to muck about trying to protect or reduce his mark. He’s in good form,” she added.
”He put up his career best last December but I think when people having a bet are faced with 40 horses in a race like the National you are looking for an excuse to put a line through all but three or four,” she explained. ”Because his two runs prior to Aintree weren’t that good they had the perfect excuse to cross him out. I had been very happy with his Welsh National run when he was beaten 17 lengths. He hit the second, lost his confidence and only really raced for the last mile. I thought that was a very reasonable performance.”
- So top weight for 2010 will be at least OR 161, OR 151 will carry no more than 11st.
- No horse has carried more than 11st 5lbs- apart from Rummy- since 1957. Those with an OR 156 will carry no more than 11st 5lbs in 2010.
- The lowest rated horses last year had on OR 139(top weight was OR 158)
#278
October 30th, 2009 12:35
Crisp – very interesting stuff
Another Hennessy runner, Killyglen, is due out on Sunday for his prep run – hopefully he’ll do well and Denman will make the market for him for the Hennessy
#279
October 30th, 2009 12:39
Crisp assuming MM runs with OR of 161 then you should be looking no lower than OR 149 according to the stats I learnt on this site just after last years race. Twelve pound below top weight.
#280
October 30th, 2009 13:01
Actually its twelve pound above bottom weight, so ignore last post from me.
#281
October 30th, 2009 14:07
Last year when discussing the likelihood of 7yr old Big Fella Thanks winning the National, I didn’t rate his chances because, aside from his age, his profile didn’t look that good. For instance he’d only ever won 1 chase and had only ran in six chases. Young horses, recent 8yr olds who have won,(Gay Trip, Red Rum, Corbiere, Party Politics, Bindaree) had ran in at least 14 chases so, perhaps, had gained experience which countered their physical immaturity(if that is what stops them winning).
Bogskar was the last 7yr old winner, 1940, but since then Royal Tan,51, Mont Tremblant FR,53(carried 12st 3lbs!),Wyndburgh,57, Carrickbeg,63(beaten by three quarters of a length) and Black Secret,71(11st 3lbs and beaten by a neck) have finished 2nd.
Could a 7yr old win in 2010?
Possol has already ran in 15 chases, winning 4, win/place strike rate is 87%, won C1/C2 worth 31k, 2nd in C1, won at 25f, placed at 26f(furthest he’s ran) has an OR 151, RPR 160. His dosage looks a bit peculiar but his speed and stamina percentage is 50-50.
#282
October 30th, 2009 14:49
Possol is an interesting horse. Ran away with the ‘Scottish’ Gold Cup at Perth on his last outing but still finds himself on a ‘workable’ handicap mark.
An interesting breeding, with his Grandsires being Cadoudal (sire of Big Bucks) and Un Desperado (sire of Best Mate). If he can build on his last run he may well be a force in the top handicaps/Listed races this season.
#283
October 30th, 2009 18:32
Possol has some decent form with Mon Mome from the start of last season too & better on flat tracks – very good run behind Nacarat & in front of BFT. Likely to be overbet as tipped up by Segal already. Might make my shortlist but I am not getting stuck in now as it’s debatable whether he will show up at all/off a winnable mark. BFT’s record on soft ground is v. good in h’caps.
#284
October 30th, 2009 19:03
Does anyone know anything about Surface to Air? I read something about him the other day, but can’t remember if it said he was back in training. Apologies if it has been mentioned here; I’ve gone back a couple of pages but can’t see anything about him.
#285
October 30th, 2009 19:53
pretty sure Surface of Air may be out for the season due to a recurrence of his previous injury
#286
October 30th, 2009 20:01
Thanks; that’s what I thought I read, that he was ready to come back this season but they found some heat in his leg..just couldn’t remember where I’d read it; on ceefax perhaps.
#287
October 30th, 2009 20:15
I will confirm TC last post SURFACE TO AIR is out for the season as stated by The Stayer on October 15.
Ben while working out the west yorkshire hurdle using the site Pedigreequery.com I notice the no figure for NO REFUGE (IRE), what do you do with those? Timeform gives it an X and says it not a fluent jumper, would I be best of ignoring the animal and just calculate the rest, (OR WHAT?)
While we are talking about seven year olds who might have a chance in the national. One of the first stats I apply is age 8-12 year old. I feel anything less than 8 would not have the experience, while older than 12 would not have the speed. So if anything would break or bend that rule it would have to show those qualities.
Possol has 15 runs (4 wins) so show experience, trouble is would you want to make an exception and include him in your bets, bearing in mind that a win is not guarantee, or would you have too many who fit in the stats your using anyway.
Just something to think and debate about.
#288
October 30th, 2009 21:28
Neil
You should find the Dosage figures for No Refuge in ‘Narrowing the Field’ as he has won the Ballymore Props Hurdle previously. Not sure why he doesn’t appear on pedigreequery.com, when that happens I usually add the horse myself.
#289
October 30th, 2009 21:32
Neil
Just added No Refuge to Pedigreequery. Unsure why they would have removed him….
#290
October 30th, 2009 21:48
Thanks Ben, come to my conclusion for tomorrow’s two races, thanks to your book and timeform. Will let you know how I got on.
#291
October 30th, 2009 22:21
Good stuff Neil
I’m always a bit wary of small fields. I was rather disappointed when only 5 were declared for the Charlie Hall. I’m hoping it will be a true run race with plenty of pace on.
#292
October 31st, 2009 09:44
Hi Guys,
I’ll be opening a new main thread later today as I don’t want to repeat the problems we had last year where some people couldn’t view the thread once it got to a certain size.
If you’d like to bring your ideas on here to a close and for openers on the new thread I’ll be asking for any reports you may have seen on horses who have the National as an intended target.
Thanks again for all the great input.
#293
November 13th, 2009 14:14
should be more blogs out there like this one
#294
December 7th, 2009 11:44
Interesting news regarding WOA”
“Mouse Morris is planning to give War Of Attrition a run over hurdles with a view to a crack at next year’s John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree.
The 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner travelled strongly for a long way in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last month but weakened from the halfway stage to finish 11th of the 18 runners.
Morris admits his charge is not the force of old, but could not be happier with the 10-year-old’s current condition.
“The plan at the moment is to give him a run over hurdles to freshen him up a bit,” said the County Tipperary handler.
“He’s in great fettle at the moment and I think the National would be his long-term target.
“He travelled well for a long way at Newbury but he is just getting a bit like myself now – age is catching up with him!
“I would think he’ll run over hurdles around Christmas time and after that we might look at something like the Thyestes Chase.
“This will be his last year and as he is in good fettle at the moment, why not keep him going?
“He’ll tell us when he’s had enough.”"
Looks like the National could be his swansong. Would be great to see the horse bow out in a blaze of glory.