Grand National 2009: Early Betting (1)
May 8th, 2008The dust has settled after the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown and the early market for the 2009 Grand National is starting to take shape with some National favourites and some new names for us all to ponder their suitability for the great race next April.
Over the next few days I’ll have a quick run through the runners in the betting and just outline my initial thoughts on them (plenty of time for trends analysis later on) and why not come back on and just let us all know what your initial feelings are about the prices for the 2009 race?
Denman heads the betting with a number of firms but connections have stated that 2010 is a more likely National target for the Gold Cup winner so it may be wise to exclude him from our early scan of the prices.
Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin and Snowy Morning come next in the betting at 20/1 and, for me, the only one that would have any appeal here would be Snowy Morning. Comply Or Die was a brilliant winner but will be punished severely by the handicapper and he has always been a rather fragile horse so any long term punts would be pretty hazardous. Butler’s Cabin looked to be going well when coming to grief at Bechers second time around but I didn’t like the look of him in some of his runs last year and I fear there may be more than a touch of temperament about him which may get worse. I wouldn’t want to be involved with him ante-post.
Snowy Morning really surprised me in the National as I thought he would struggle to get round. Bar his mistake at the last he performed really well for a young horse and with a programme mapped out for the National he could find the necessary improvement to offset any rise in the weights he may incur. 20/1 isn’t particularly generous but he must have a chance.
Iris De Balme wouldn’t interest me at all. I’m always very suspicious of the likelihood of horses who win from miles out of the handicap maintaining that level of form when they return to their true mark. I’d have to see more from him before I’d make him a serious National candidate.
Hear The Echo won the Irish National well and that race is one I like as a long term indicator for the National itself but I have big doubts about his jumping. He has already hit the deck four times in his eighteen starts over obstacles and that is too many in my book for a potential National winner. That said Fairyhouse is a really hard track to jump round so it may be that this area of his game is improving. I didn’t like his performance in the race before the Irish National when he looked to be travelling well and went out very quickly. He wouldn’t be carrying my money.
So that’s the first half dozen in the betting. Of those the only one of interest to me would be Snowy Morning and I’m not sure I would be tempted by the prices on offer. How about you?
Let us know your thoughts and check back in the next few days when we will be looking at the next six horses in the current betting.
Systems Man Says:
May 9th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Yes we need to forget Comply Or Die for 2009 he will be carrying much to much weight to win (above 11.02 I’am sure).
rammy Says:
May 11th, 2008 at 11:33 am
i agree the first 3 home 2008 will have too much weight lumped on and have the stat. of finishing in frame etc.i feel if butlers cabin were to win then he had his chance.i have to tell you i totally disagree about iris d b and have already backed it at hills at 50/1 22/4/08 and the one i also have had a small e/w early punt on is cornish sett 100/1 again at hills.if you watch the recording of the race he ran a cracker and considering he had a wind op. previous and had not had time to have a prep race or run for 99 days i think it was i feel he has great e/w claims even at this early stage.with h.h now finished ruby could also end up with the ride which would be a bonus.
Pav Says:
June 4th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
I also disagree with the comments regarding Iris de Balme. I think it was a classic example of a progressive horse being below the handicapper’s radar. I’m not a great one with analysing stats but at the moment won’t he meet a lot of the necessary requirements? As you say, we will have to see how he comes on, but if he’s on the right mark at the moment, won’t the trainer be tempted to hide him away until Spring?
I thought I had already posted this comment but I must have put it somewhere else!