Grand National 2009 – Best Bets
Posted on March 15th, 2009 in Grand National 2009
Aintree is less than three weeks away and with the Cheltenham form now done and dusted most of the Grand National cards have been played and its time to start making your final selections.
Were you impressed with My Will in the Gold Cup?
Did Butlers Cabin take your eye in the Kim Muir?
Did Character Building do enough to silence his doubters (like me!)
Is Comply Or Die coming back to form?
Or is Rambling Minster’s pre Cheltenham form still the strongest?
Please start bringing all your final thoughts and tips together on this page in the run up to the big race on Saturday 4th April.
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This post has 2215 comments
#1
March 15th, 2009 15:39
My Will. Good if you have backed him at long odds as I think he has a great chance of a place especially off 10-10. Has run well in the long distance chases he’s contested, 2x3rds at 30f and a win at 28f. Could he win? Well no top4 chase finish this season which is a strong stat, though Hennessey 5th a big positive, and the last three GN winners with less than four prep runs, Aldaniti, Last Suspect and Minnehoma and had all won a race that season.
#2
March 15th, 2009 16:10
nothing i saw at cheltenham has made me change my mind or views.the horses that are stand out for me and have been for a while are in order : 1) RAMBLING MINSTER
2) STATE OF PLAY
3) GARDE CHAMPETRE
4) CORNISH SETT
still got interest and watching for DARKNESS and KILLBEGGAN BLADE for place monies.
#3
March 15th, 2009 16:57
Ones that qualify as bets for me based on my ratings are:
BLACK APALACHI
Will back nearer the time if weights don’t go up too much and especially if there’s some give in the ground – with all the hysteria around other horses I can see this one drifting in price nearer the time
RAMBLING MINSTER
Nothing more to say and have lots on plus doubles and trebles accumulating up – fingers crossed
NOTRE PERE
Possibly has too much weight already (I allow up to 11’5 if all other factors are strong) and bypassed Cheltenham – so no bet unless market speaks strongly (which I doubt)
SOUTHERN VIC
Unlike many I have found encouragement from his last four runs and am over the Strong Gale phobia on the dam side (GVA Ireland won the Midlands National) – have had a little on and will top up if there’s rain around
WAR OF ATTRITION
Wouldn’t qualify ordinarily because of the run within 50 days indicator – exception made however because this horse won the Gold cup after a 79 day lay-off and has performed very well on slower ground than ideal this season – on watered good ground he could go very well if weights don’t rise (different class to My Will) – have a little on and will go in guns blazing if Exotic Dancer turns up
STATE OF PLAY
Again hasn’t had a recent run but won Hennessy after 6-month break and has won at Aintree before after 3 months off – already had some good bets on this at some nice prices
Additional saver:
SNOWY MORNING
Will put more on if Exotic turns up and if good ground – his run behind Neptune Collonges on fast ground last April better than anything My Will has ever produced in my opinion (Neptune Collonges is better away from Cheltenham on quicker ground)
Ones that just miss out:
MY WILL
GARDE CHAMPETRE
KILBEGGAN BLADE
#4
March 15th, 2009 17:53
1. rambling minster
2. butlers cabin
3.state of play
alot of people like character building but only 23 days between last run and gn same with butlers now?? a question mark. and he’s grey and the last grey i backed in the national fell over and died sadly so not done it since.
#5
March 15th, 2009 18:33
and the kids have a pinstickers tenner on snowy morning and black apalachi …. which i have said they can blow in toysrus if they win ….. so first weekend in april may well go horribly wrong !!!
#6
March 15th, 2009 18:39
News…
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP third Exotic Dancer is heading to Aintree where the chance of recording a second win in the totesport Bowl could prove a more attractive option than the John Smith’s Grand National.
Owner Sir Robert Ogden’s racing manager Barry Simpson said: “Why take on horses where everyone theoretically has got a chance, against putting him in a race where very few have got a chance? It’s a big prize but we haven’t made any firm decisions.
“He seems to have come out of his race reasonably well. He ran near to his form, might not have been his best form, but we’ve no excuse to offer. A P [McCoy] did put it to me that he felt he was a Ryanair horse rather than a Gold Cup horse.”
Please see sense and go for the Bowl, take your prize money home and leave the National to the ones that actually have a chance.
#7
March 15th, 2009 18:45
What a great week of racing we just had. All eyes forward to Aintree now. If it’s half as good as Cheltenham it will be fantastic.
Nothing much that I saw last week changed my opinions regarding the National. Rambo is still my idea of the winner and serious consideration should be given to State of Play and Butler’s Cabin. My Will did run a very good race at Cheltenham but my worry is Paul Nicholl’s dire record in the race. Southern Vic was a horse that I was keen on and though he ran well yesterday and jumped much better than the last time, he looked to have a hard race and the National is less than 3 weeks away.
#8
March 15th, 2009 19:10
Working on my final list – there will be no big surprises. Will post up results fo all to see but need another 48 hours to do some serious work (it make or brake time now for serious trends study). Looks like I will be sending some time in the library tomorrow for me and you all.
You can only back so many runners and my list is already long enougth. Two I cannot make my mind up on are Cornish Sett (ran last year but good trends)and L’Ami (the same. Wasted money on hm last year)are they saver material or the real deal (both a bit big in the odds at hstage for my liking)? Your views on these two would be appreciated – tell me why they cant win as well as why they could.
Best weeks investing for two months (but not on the festival!!)and I still have all my bets running in the GN at good prices (however had to take 14/1 on CB as a saver!!).
I still think we can all get the family holiday in the sun so lets pull together – we have almost cracked it!
Come on Rambooooooo! Bring it on.
#9
March 15th, 2009 19:15
Agreed if weights don’t alter too much Black Apalachi is in the mix though no Becher winner has won GN in same season. Unsure about Southern Vic, haven’t backed it, though you could still argue it’s case that if it stays it is a C1 winner. Have looked again and again at Darkness and beginning to think this could be real e/w value at 40/1.
#10
March 15th, 2009 19:48
Crisp – take your point about Becher winners – although Clan Royal and Amberleigh House came first and second in the Becher and again in the GN in same year
Difficult to assess the form of the Becher in such atrocious conditions – heavy and strong wind and rain – but it did prove that Black Apalachi can jump the fences well with some give in the ground
As for Darkness – pros and cons – for me the cons outweigh the pros but I can see why some make a case for it
#11
March 15th, 2009 19:58
Reasons why I won’t be backing Darkness:
1. Never won a chase with more than 9 runners
2. Only won chases in Beginners, Novices or Veterans company – no all aged handicap wins
3. Record in 20+ fields reads P, P (in Scottish and Welsh Nationals)
4. No form in key races
#12
March 15th, 2009 19:58
…and 5. Best form for A P McCoy
#13
March 15th, 2009 20:10
Here are my thoughts at this stage based on the following trends…
* Age 8 to 12
* Won one or more 3m+ Chase
* Run in 10+ Chases
* Won Class 2 or better Chase
* Won Chase worth over £17,000
* Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight on the day
* Top 3 finish in Class 1 Chase over 3m+
* Top 3 finish in any of last 3 runs
* Last run no greater than 50 days
* No more than one none finish that season
* Topspeed of 128+
* RPR of 144+
* Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh/Irish/Scots National, Top 2 in race over National fences or 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+
Using the trends above I come up with…
Madison Du Berlais(11-8)
Notre Pere(11-4)
Chelsea Harbour(11-0)
Knowhere(10-13)
Black Apalachi(10-11)
My Will(10-10)
Mon Mome(10-6)
L’Ami(10-3)
Cornish Sett(10-2)
Rambling Minster(10-1)
Character Building(9-12)
Weight on the day will play a huge factor in any final list. But a 5lb or 8lb rise would probably rule out My Will upwards. This leaves me with five. Mon Mome, Cornish Sett and L’Ami have all tried and finished unplaced. Which leads me back to Rambo and Character!
My Will and Black Apalachi are dangers should the weights allow them to be.
So to sum up for this stage with 3 weeks to go…
RECOMMENDED WIN BETS
Rambling Minster (16/1)
Character Building (16/1)
RECOMMENDED EACH WAY BETS
State Of Play (25/1)
Garde Champetre (25/1)
Butler’s Cabin (When he was 20/1; not now)
#14
March 15th, 2009 21:19
Why no mention of Brooklyn Brownie guys? I think you’re overlooking this one!
Aside from the fact it hasn’t won a chase worth £17k+ does it fall down on any other trends?
Ran well over the National fences in the Grand Sefton so only doubt I can see is doubts over the trip. But until they run over 4.5 miles who knows what will stay!
#15
March 15th, 2009 21:25
Stephen very good and I dont dsagree.
For the record the following are in the Pre-Christmas GN winners profile list (based on OR 136 to 146 only (two points above the last ten years winners OR trend to play safe).
Every GN winner for the last ten years had this profile before Christmas in GN winning year.
The Pre- Christmas GN winners trends were:
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (11/11)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
12 runners passed all nine trends with TS 111 (to play safe, TS 128 best)min by Christmas.
In no order
1. Rambling Minster
2. Butlers Cabin
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Black Apalachi
5. Darkness
6. Garde Champetre
7. Parsons Legacy
8. King Harold
9. Kilbeggan Blade
10. Chelsea Harbour
11. Southern Vic O
12. L’Ami
So Stephen using your short list we have left:
Chelsea Harbour(11-0)
Black Apalachi(10-11)
L’Ami(10-3)
Rambling Minster(10-1)
In my book it leaves Rambo as the outstanding bet by far!!!
Note: CB did not qualify at Christams but has passed the trends test now and to play safe should be included (also in stephens list).
RECOMMENDED WIN BETS (look its the same as Stephen!!!)
Rambling Minster (16/1 – get on and on and on!!)
Character Building (16/1)(i dont fancy it but cannot leave it out – towards the bottom end of all trends required)
Others worth a full bet
State Of Play (25/1)(if 11.01 or under). So much class I could at sleep at night without something on this one.
Garde Champetre (25/1)(no 1/2/3 class1 but I do think it could be the one alongside Rambo)
Savers (1/3 – 1/2 – 3/4 normal bet)- but this savers list may get revised.
Black Apalachi (if 11.01 or under)
Kilbeggan Blade (no 1/2/3 Class1)
Himalayan Trail
Darkness
And this is without my final work over the next two days but the top 4 recommendation stands.
#16
March 15th, 2009 21:48
I should add by way of explanation that Cornish Sett meets the Pre-Chritmas trends but I excluded all GN runners that were placed last year from the list (when was the last time a GN placed horse won the following year?).
But its why C Sett and L’Ami worry me like hell – help please. Stephen excluded them both and I am inclined to do so but should we? (I think I will have some sort of saver on both, CS especiely with his 3rd in the Welsh Nat and Claas 1 win this year).
#17
March 15th, 2009 22:14
I Roll Along still an intended runner? Thought he ran a good race in the GC but, whereas My Will’s price has come in his hasn’t.
#18
March 15th, 2009 22:19
Loving the list Systemsman!
It is always a worry to exclude horses such as Cornish Sett and L’Ami when they meet a lot of the trends. I excluded them on the basis that if they weren’t good enough to be up there at the finish before then my thinking is why should they suddenly burst through to win now? They finished miles behind and unplaced, so they didn’t fall or unseat. It is something that rarely happens and I don’t see it happening this year.
But I will carry out the trends checklist again once we know the final field of 40 runners and a more accurate decision can be made.
#19
March 15th, 2009 22:43
Systemsman Says:
March 15th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
“I should add by way of explanation that Cornish Sett meets the Pre-Christmas trends but I excluded all GN runners that were placed last year from the list (when was the last time a GN placed horse won the following year?).”
That could prove a dangerous assumption, Systems. You may not get your fingers burnt this year, but I would be wary of having it as a general rule.
In the 1970s (using this principle) you would never have backed L’Escargot (1975) at 13/2 and Rag Trade (1976) at 14/1, not to mention Red Rum (1974 & 1977) at 11/1 and 9/1.
Just a few years later Hallo Dandy (1984) won at 13/1. That’s five horses to buck the trend over ten runnings!!
More recently, of course, you would have missed Amberleigh House (2004) at 16/1 and, had Hedgehunter not leglessly stumbled over the last in that race and staggered on to finish, you would have missed the following year’s 7/1 winner.
There is some foundation to the theory (especially over recent years) but I think it could be a weakness in an otherwise formidable approach, Systemsman.
#20
March 15th, 2009 23:17
Johnny Valentine you make a fair point and one I have wrestled with for the last three months (I did make a case for L’Ami last year and wasted money on him). Its why i will have a good saver on Cornish Sett whoes form looks very good this year (and recommended by many on this site – I would add however his price profile is a little high for this close to the GN but makes saver investment cheap though).
At some point you do have to make difficult decisions (and put your real money where you mouth is) like BC and SV cant win (my opinion) otherwise the number of runners you back gets too large.
However the recent trends say a placed horse does not win the next year. I would have only missed Amberleigh House (2004)in recent years according to your study Johnny – 1984 was your other nearest date. So in the last 24 years Johnny (unless I am wrong) I would have missed two winners – a price I would pay to have a shorter short list (you cant back all 40 runners can you?).
I have always accepted I cant win every year but I will have a bloody good try!!!!!
#21
March 15th, 2009 23:31
Interesting posts, thanks. I’m not the biggest punter in the world, but have the occasional couple of quid here and there. Would be interested in knowing your thoughts on the liklihood of Nine de Sivola making the cut. I don’t really know how to find this out.
Thanks in advance
#22
March 15th, 2009 23:47
Regarding Cornish Sett and L’Ami, I think it is safe to exclude them. Neither have showed enough in their previous Grand National running to convince me that they could turn it around. Mon Mome actually ran much better than them both in the National and would have probably finished 5th or 6th he hadn’t been hampered twice at key times. Having said this, I will not be backing Mon Mome either as is in poor form; would have liked to have seen a top 4 placing (despite top weight) in Midlands National but he failed to do this
Incidentally, when Simon had a shocker at Cheltenham he drifted initially to around 60s on Betfair. However he his now 230 and has been put bottom of the Betfair list. Have we heard that he isn’t running? Apologies if this has already been discussed!
Regarding Brooklyn Brownie, stamina is unproven at the marathon distances but I quite fancy him for a place.
#23
March 15th, 2009 23:59
There are possibly 20 horses in with a chance but I have narrowed it down to 2 strong bets (RM & SOP) and will have 2 to 4 savers (depending on ground etc), along with the results of some trading on Betfair over the past few months
I cannot back Cornish Sett because:
1) He was beaten 62L in last year’s race (“Cornish Sett ran really well until weakening over the last few fences” – a common remark for non-stayers) and is 4lb higher this year
2) This year’s race looks like being much better in terms of quality
L’Ami was beaten almost 100L when he completed in 10th and is now worse off for losing consistently to Garde Champetre than he was at Cheltenham
Returning winners Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House, Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter have all got closer than L’Ami off their revised winner’s marks
Big Fella Thanks worries me much more than these two and he’s a 7 years old novice
#24
March 16th, 2009 00:00
Pablo, Pablo, whats a foot, a U-turn on the strong gale horses. I wrote off Southern Vic and Darkness because of your many posts – that strong gale horses don’t win the GN. or even get placed – silly me. Mind you I have wondered would T. Walsh and C. Egerton take a horse with only 32f. of petrol in the tank to a 36f. race. God knows ?.
By the way, there are lots of stats and trends flying around but one of the basic stats is – A C1 or C2 chase win worth £17+.
#25
March 16th, 2009 00:17
miinnehoma – Strong Gale as a sire was rubbish in GN (but he’s not around anymore so no more Strong Gale-sired horses about) but GVA Ireland has Strong Gale as dam sire and won the Midlands National which gives some encouragement
I’m still not convinced that Southern Vic, Darkness etc will get 4m 4f because this marathon is unique (and noone really knows), and that is why the runners are strung out like the washing at the end of the National, but equally I’m not ruling anything out for one reason alone
My top horses are rated at the top because to me they have more positives than the others (every single one has negatives – weight or class or form or lack of a recent run or something else)
#26
March 16th, 2009 00:43
Anyone interested in Southern Vic or Darkness re: strong gale stamina influence, read on –
I have looked at all runners in the last 15 GN’s. For those that want a short answer – the jury is still out. The details –
17 strong gale horses have made 24 attempts in 13/15 GN’s. Thats only 1 or 2 per race. Now, unfortunately for our purposes 18 either F7,UR6,PU4 or BD1. The other 6 attempts finished 6th,7th,2x14tn,15tn and 16tn. Prices 7/1f – 150/1. Wts. 10.00-11.12, Age 8-12. Not much help then.
If we look at the life runs of the 17 that tried, none had won a 32f. or 33f. race but had won 28f. and 30f. Both Ad Hoc and Shotgun Willy were 2nd in a 33f. race – both at Ayr. Beaten 5L and 1/2L. wt.10-13 and 11-6.
P.S. none of the above 17 have the same exact parent mix as Southern Vic or Darkness.
#27
March 16th, 2009 01:44
I have had the winner for the last 6 years using the age, weight, runs over 3.5 miles and last run between 25-50 days and must be running into form on last run, add to this the prefered going for the horse and usually you are left with only two on the day. This years winner can only come from (in order of preferance) Rambling minster, Garde champetre, Darkness,Lami and kilbeggan blade also Black apalachi could run into a minor place.Rule out all the rest but bear in mind the final equation on the day relating to the going.Good luck and if you pick one of these e/w you are sure of a return.I will also be placing a tri cast combo using these selections.
#28
March 16th, 2009 01:51
I think if the Wts. go up 5Lbs. or more, then it now boils down to a 2 horse race.
Character Building
Rambling Minster
But if Southern Vic and Darknesst have the right parent mix and going on the day, then I would also give them a chance.
If the Wts. don’t go up, then I would advise you to sell the house, the neighbours house and back Snowy Morning – 3 bedrooms e.w.. The true winner last year, casey had him all over the shop, he must have covered 5 mls. to COD’s 4 and 1/2. Bless him.
#29
March 16th, 2009 02:04
Well Minnie if you are to select 2 dont look any further than Rambling and Garde both available at 20s or more so solid e/w for your house.
#30
March 16th, 2009 09:57
Gaz, where are you getting 20s Rambling Minster? I can’t find better than 16s. Only 17s on Betfair.
#31
March 16th, 2009 10:16
http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/owners-trainers-and-jockeys/
I posted this link on the Cheltenham Entries thread but it should be on here. If you follow the link there are further links to the Met Office for Aintree weather and the Turftrax going report for the course. The latter is not being updated as yet but will be closer to the meeting. Both links are very useful tools for making those final selections.
#32
March 16th, 2009 10:39
I notice Simon has been withdrawn from almost all bookies betting so I’m guessing he has pulled out or will be soon as has L’Antartique and Lothian Falcon. Hope no one got too stung on Simon.
Following are available to back on betfair at much higher odds than the bookies so should be considered possible non-runners:
Notre Pere, Star de Mohaison, Madison du burlais, Cant Buy Time, Imperial Commander, Afistfullofdollars, Opera Mundi.
#33
March 16th, 2009 11:16
gaz7753 Says:
March 16th, 2009 at 1:44 am
I have had the winner for the last 6 years using the age, weight, runs over 3.5 miles and last run between 25-50 days and must be running into form on last run, add to this the prefered going for the horse and usually you are left with only two on the day. This years winner can only come from (in order of preferance) Rambling minster, Garde champetre, Darkness,Lami and kilbeggan blade also Black apalachi could run into a minor place.Rule out all the rest but bear in mind the final equation on the day relating to the going.Good luck and if you pick one of these e/w you are sure of a return.I will also be placing a tri cast combo using these selections.
Gaz you have already put this on the cheltenham blog but it was a slightly different method you used and as someone else pointed out on there you would of only got 2 out of the last 6 winners.
#34
March 16th, 2009 11:19
Brody,
I agree that they look unlikely runners. I wonder what has happened to Simon then? Interestingly his run at Cheltenham was the first time that he’s ever been pulled-up in a race in around 30 starts so possibly something was amiss with him.
As well as your possible non-runners there are others I would consider unlikely runners and they include Ballyfitz, Gwanako, Monkerhostin and One Cool Cookie.
#35
March 16th, 2009 11:43
Please can someone tell me when the final Dec date is? Thanks
#36
March 16th, 2009 11:43
I think its safe to say that gwanako is a non runner. He pulled out at the first decalaration stage
Speaking of unlikely runners is Character building in danger of not making the final cut or do you think there will be enough withdrawals to get him in?
#37
March 16th, 2009 11:59
Brody, I think it is safe to assume that the horses you mention above will be withdrawn. With Exotic Dancer having the option of running in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree (a race he won last year),I am now confident he will not line-up for the National despite the initial remarks from his trainer following the Gold Cup.
With this in mind, Snoopy Loopy, Norzic or Cloudy Lane look set to go off as top-weight, and we are, therefore, looking at a minimum weight rise of 5lb, with the possibility of 7lb or 8lb.
As a 7lb increase would exclude State Of Play and My Will on most peoples calculations, has anybody any feedback on the possible participation of Snoopy Loopy, as his participation or possible withdrawal could have a considerable impact on the outcome.
#38
March 16th, 2009 12:04
“miinnehoma Says:
March 16th, 2009 at 1:51 am
I think if the Wts. go up 5Lbs. or more, then it now boils down to a 2 horse race.
Reply:
100% corrcet Miinnehoma but these are the stand out selctions weight rise OR NO weight rise.
If you want the best trends runners it just has to be
Rambling Minster
OR143
Weight 10.01
or
Character Building
OR 140
Weight 9.12
with RB looking the best by far.
Cornish Sett (OR 144, Weight 10.02) also qualifies if you ignore his place run in the GN last year and I am coming to the conclusion that if would be daft to ignore him alogether due to the GN place last yearwhen he qualifies on all other grounds.
These two have the classic OR 137 to 144. RPR 144min TS 128min, won Class 1 chase etc etc and have shown form this season. They also fit Stepehns GN winners Profile, Score 3stars in my “Black Book” ratings and RM also qulaifies in the my Pre-GN winners profile, CB did not but he has got the neccessary qualifications now (but the last ten winners had them at or around Chritmas!).
The only negatives are:
RM – 40% strike rate (42% min – but how good is this trend? – its not one I have used before. Its only means a drop by two points for the new trend if RM wins.
CB – won at Cheltenham. Only complies with trends late and at the lower end.
Of those with only a Grade 2 win but still within OR 137 to Or 144 the best are:
Garde Champetre
OR 142
Weight 10.00
Kilbeggan Blade
OR 141
Weight 9.13
Himalayan Trail
OR 140
Weight 9.12
As you know if the winner is above OR144 the profile I like the most is (if and a big if 11.01 or less:
State Of Play
OR150
Weight 10.08
So I am going to be brave and state again that the 2009 GN winner will have a OR of 137 to 144!! (brave or fooish?)
Come on Rambo!! (would make a good tea shirt)
#39
March 16th, 2009 12:12
Brian,
Sorry I meant Silverburn who has “Doubtful” by his name on the RP site.
CB needs 18 to come out I think and the unlikely runners ahead of him in the handicap seem to be: Simon, L’Antartique, Notre Pere, Star de Mohaison, Madison du Berlais, Cant Buy Time, Imperial Commander, Afistfullofdollars, Opera Mundi, Ballyfitz, Monkerhostin and One Cool Cookie. That’s 12 so he still needs a few more. There are usually a few that drop out late in the day so he has a good chance of getting in though you can’t be totaly confident.
#40
March 16th, 2009 12:13
And I forgot Exotic Dancer….
#41
March 16th, 2009 12:19
Just searched for info on Snoopy Loopy and cannot find any significant quote in respect. However, he currently quoted at 400/1 on betfair as agsinst 50/1 by Ladbrokes. This may indicate he is a likely non-runner also, which would give a likely weight rise of 7/8 lb.
On that basis, My Will and State Of Play would certainly have too much weight for my liking, as I consider the 11-01 stat to be the strongest stat available.
It is very much looking like RAMBLING MINSTER or CHARACTER BUILDING at this stage, with GARDE CHAMPETRE and DARKNESS also high oon my list of others to consider.
#42
March 16th, 2009 12:21
Systems
Is it possible to confirm the horses that were in your “pre Christmas trends” list
Thank you
#43
March 16th, 2009 12:22
Sorry systems, just seen this posted above!
#44
March 16th, 2009 12:33
Character Building best priced at 14/1 now; in from 16/1.
Hopefully he should sneak in at the bottom of the field. It’s promising that there are 13 runners that look very unlikely to run, meaning only a handful more would need to drop out for him to get in.
#45
March 16th, 2009 12:33
John Spearing has confirmed that SIMON will not run again this season after running disappointingly at Cheltenham.
#46
March 16th, 2009 12:39
Confirmation of above post by The Stayer:
SIMON has been scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National and Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup following a disappointing display at Cheltenham.
The 10-year-old, owned and bred by former trainer Mercy Rimell, will not run again this season after being pulled up before the third-last fence in the William Hill Trophy won by Wichita Lineman.
Trainer John Spearing said:”He’s all right but we decided he hasn’t had a very good year.
“We couldn’t get him quite as we wanted him so we are going to leave him off untilnext year.”
Simon, winner of the 2007 Racing Post Chase, has exited at Valentines on the second circuit in the last two runnings of the Grand National.
He had been a 25-1 chance to make it third time lucky at Aintree next month.
#47
March 16th, 2009 12:45
Can anybody confirm if a stat exists in respect of “price on the day”, as most winners are usually fancied horses, ie in top 8-10 in betting.
Do we have any information of the last ten winners place in the market?
#48
March 16th, 2009 13:08
2008 Comply or Die 7-1F
2007 Silver Birch 33/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 Hedgehunter 7/1 F
2004 Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 Bindaree 20/1
2001 Red Marauder 33/1
2000 Papillon 10/1
1999 Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 Earth Summit 7/1F
1997 Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 Rough Quest 7/1F
1995 Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 Void Race
1992 Party Politics 14/1
1991 Seagram 12/1
1990 Mr Frisk 16/1
Just plucked this from the Aintree website. Looking at that odds I would suggest most winners were in the top 8-10 in the betting with the exception of Silver Birch, Red Marauder and Royal Athlete.
#49
March 16th, 2009 13:24
Forgot to add Darkness also needs to be considered in the “other to consider” list along with GC etc
Darkness
OR 143
Weight 10.01
RPR 156
TS 150
Won Class 1 Nov Ch
Won Class 2 this year with 11.12
3yd in Sun allianc Chase 2006
Similar to COD in 2008 (coming back after a long brake)
Negative
Price a bit high at this stage.
PU in twice in last four runs in Scots (2006) and Welsh Nat (2008) – now that dont look good.
#50
March 16th, 2009 13:42
I reckon that the bottom entries will indeed come down to the 9-12 bunch. I understand that, if not all horses on same weight can make the cut, then the handicapper re-ranks the form since the weights were announced and decides on a new pecking order. I can see no reason why Brooklyn Brownie and Character Building wouldn’t remain the top 2 but, if it happens to come down to just one of them getting in, it will be fascinating to see which he ranks highest. I for one hope that it would be Brooklyn Brownie as have him e/w but I don’t currently have CB who I now rate a serious danger!
Are we going to be doing a new post-Cheltenham league table with 6 selections each? can’t remember who organised the last one?
#51
March 16th, 2009 13:50
From SLife:
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE is to be aimed at the Coral Scottish Grand National rather than the Aintree equivalent.
Last season’s Welsh National hero was taken out of the John Smith’s Grand National today on the eve of the latest forfeit stage.
He has, however, been put in the Ayr feature, entries for which close at noon tomorrow.
#52
March 16th, 2009 13:51
“GRASSISGREEN Says:
March 16th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Please can someone tell me when the final Dec date is? Thanks”
Grassisgreen – have a look at this earlier thread – all the relevant dates are on there
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2009/grand-national-entries-2009/
#53
March 16th, 2009 14:08
Regarding State of Play and the “it having to much weight to carry if/when the weights rise” debate.
I would still be happy if this horse has to carry 11:03, as someone has already pointed out (think it was Crisp who first mentioned it) all winners have carried upto 11lbs more than the bottom weight which would mean that the lowest entry at the current weights would be zabenz on 9-11 and i dont personnelly believe horses this far down will get in.
I think Character Building is going to either just scrape in or just miss out so State of Play’s weight is not an issue to me regardless of the weights rising.
#54
March 16th, 2009 14:13
Thanks admin
#55
March 16th, 2009 16:48
Brian, intersting point. If Cloudy Lane ends up being top weight, I can see bottom weight being 10_5 or even 10_6. I can’t imagine we’ve had such a compressed field before, just 18 or 19lb covering the whole field. Therefore, if a horse is carrying 11_2 for example, it won’t be giving more than 11lb to any other horse.
Assuming weights go up 8lb, I’d consider anything from S.O.P. downwards and would still be a little concerned about My Will.
#56
March 16th, 2009 17:00
I’m not sure that the extra weight over 11st is totally due to how much more weight they are carrying than horses further down the handicap; look at the stats for Cheltenham handicap winners where hardly any horse carrying over 11st has won a handicap chase.
#57
March 16th, 2009 17:11
If higher weighted horses aren’t beaten because of the weight they’re giving away then what is the cause?
#58
March 16th, 2009 17:23
Just seeing the updated posts – just recovering from a heavy week at Cheltenham!
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, who produced the best performance of his career when thwarting Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham last week, has been ruled out of the John Smith’s Grand National.
The Ryanair Chase winner, successful earlier in the season in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, will still head to Aintree but not for the Grand National, for which he was as short as 16-1 with Boylesports, Totesport and William Hill.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said: “Imperial Commander will not be going for the National. I have spoken with the owners and the group decision is that we will wait another year. He will run in either the Melling Chase or the Totesport Bowl at Aintree.”
All looking very good for Rambo but I agree it will close for CB. Simon is out of the race and it looks like Exotic Dancer won’t be running either. Roll Along is looking unlikely too (Racing Post story today) – COD looking a very likely runner for Pipe.
#59
March 16th, 2009 17:25
ADD NOTRE PERE to that list. He has been officially scrtached from the National.
#60
March 16th, 2009 17:26
They are dropping like flies now
“IMPERIAL COMMANDER, who produced the best performance of his career when thwarting Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham last week, has been ruled out of the John Smith’s Grand National.”
“NOTRE PERE, winner of the Welsh National, has been officially scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree next month.”
“MIKO DE BEAUCHENE is to be aimed at the Coral Scottish Grand National rather than the Aintree equivalent.”
“SIMON has been scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National and Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup following a disappointing display at Cheltenham.”
Plus Monkerhostin, L’Antartique and Silverburn all down as doubtful on the Racing Post entry list.
So that’s 7 now out that were above Character in the list. Hopefully all the top weights above Cloudy Lane will follow suit and it’s starting to take shape.
#61
March 16th, 2009 18:24
well all my betting for the race is all but done i think ?? or is it?
1. Rambling minster – family holiday to disney land if it wins
2. character building – family holiday to disney land if it wins (although ive backed it on you guys knowlege and it will probably trip over the starting tape as the last grey i backed ….. dark ivy !!!!)
3. state of play – a week in a caravan at hunstanton if it wins
4. butlers cabin – a week in a caravan at hunstanton if it wins (backed early in the year)
5. Garde champetre – weekend away with the mrs. maybe catch a show if it wins
6. Hot weld – fancied the name ….. thats what the nationals all about isnt it?
the horses i dont want to win ……..
snowy morning and black apalachi as i will have to take my kids to a toy shop on the sunday and watch them spend over 100 quid there !!!!
I do have 25 quid left in the war chest now …………… any ideas chaps?
#62
March 17th, 2009 10:03
good day for the hobbs yard yesterday …… anyone fancying a flutter on parsons legacy???
#63
March 17th, 2009 10:06
I’ve been contemplating a flutter on Parson’s legacy for some time now but think i will hold back and leave it til the day to decide now if i have a little bit or not on him (Dont want my fingers being burned like last year)
#64
March 17th, 2009 10:16
At last, we can reply again!
#65
March 17th, 2009 10:24
just found this on rp website…
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/nozic-aintree-grand-national-grand-national-weights-could-go-up-by-7lb/170709/top/
#66
March 17th, 2009 10:41
Yes I noticed this last night but couldn’t post anything on here. Looks likely that Nozic will be the top weight with the weights going up by 7lbs. If you’ve already backed a horse set to carry 10-10 or more that’s a bit of a blow.
#67
March 17th, 2009 11:01
Yes so did i but the story goes on to say that the connections of Madison Du Berlais share the same sentiment as the weights will only rise by 2lbs so he could be running after all.
Would still be happy if Nozic was top weight but would prefer Madison Du berlais to be it
#68
March 17th, 2009 11:10
Can’t see Madison running myself. Badly weighted with My Will on Gold Cup form and they tried last year with him and failed.
Nozic top weight for me.
#69
March 17th, 2009 11:16
After last years debacle couldn’t recommend anyone backing Parson’s before the day, don’t trust the yard.
Always thought Cloudy would end up being top weight looks to be coming closer and closer to reality every day. Don’t believe Pipe will run Maddy no matter what he tells the media, Nicholls might well run Nozic as he has history of running top weights with no chance. Not too unhappy happy with that though as only 1lb higher than I thought for mine and puts SoP on a very tough weight to win off imo.
#70
March 17th, 2009 11:18
More good news…
THE Sir Robert Ogden owned duo of Exotic Dancer and Star De Mohaison have been taken out of the John Smith’s Grand National at Tuesday’s latest forfeit stage.
#71
March 17th, 2009 11:27
If anyone fancies State Of Play he has been clipped in to 20s from 25s with several firms this morning and is around 24s on Betfair so the rest of the 25s might disappear soon. I’ve had a nibble myself.
#72
March 17th, 2009 11:37
What time are the withdrawals officially announced.
The reason im asking is because Betfair normally suspend the market on the day of the announcement but it is still trading at the moment which is strange if it is due shortly after 12 clock
#73
March 17th, 2009 11:37
Something interesting I have noticed is that Dougie Costello is the regular jock for Character Buidling and has ridden Brooklyn Brownie on its last two starts. Both are on 9-12 in the weights list but I assume that Character Building would be given preference above Brooklyn based on his win the the Kim Muir. If both horses got into the race then it would be interesting to see who he rides.
Also, Dougie Costello on Brooklyn Brownie finished second to Endless Power ridden by James Reveley in the Grand Sefton back in November. Could these two jocks fill the first two places again on April 4th
#74
March 17th, 2009 11:49
If anyone wants to try and recoup any money on Butler’s Cabin (thats if you believe he doesn’t have a chance anymore) then Skybet have put up a market for who will start the favourite.
BC and My Will are the current favourites to be favourite at 10/3.
#75
March 17th, 2009 11:58
That “Name the Favourite” market looks interesting. I wonder what price C.o.D. was this time last year? Rambo 16/1. Could we see a similar move on the trend horse?
#76
March 17th, 2009 12:01
hey we are back up! and with no photo icons, thought we were going to have to sign up t something and give a photo!! no offense everyone but I think mug shots of us all would scew things and we’d base peoples opinions in part on how they look! so don’t ever do it admin!
I was going to say last night it looked very much like ED would go for the bowl and others would drop out, so cool early feelings of 7/8lb rise look on! this for me rules out almost certainly SOP, My Will, COD, snowy, mon mome.
Rambo will get in, so will Him Trail I think… he still worries me slightly as a spring horse and sound jumper on low weight.
but what will be no.40?
is there a chance Brooklyn will get in?
#77
March 17th, 2009 12:13
If Nina Carberry is on Garde Champetre (99%) the weight of money
on her will force her to be favourite or very near IMVHO.
There will be so much hype about her being the 1st female winner.
#78
March 17th, 2009 12:16
Surely people back with their heads and see this as a negative? I can’t see Garde being tipped whereas I can see Big Mac screaming and waving his arms about, as he does, about the trends and getting over excited about Rambo.
#79
March 17th, 2009 12:17
They do not list GC so it comes under Any other horse which is 20/1.
#80
March 17th, 2009 12:18
Comply or Die i was thinking the very same and the 20-1 for any other horse is tempting.
But then i thought after Ruby’s winners at cheltenham then his horse will prob start as favourite especially if on either My will or BFT. Suppose if you think about that market too hard you could end up with viable reasons as to why a number of horses will start off fav so its maybe more of a minefield book to work out than the winner of the race itself.
#81
March 17th, 2009 12:20
Don’t think it’s any great surprise that Exotic has been taken out. That 7lb potential rise would certainly make it a lot easier to knock a good few out of the reckoning (for me anyway). I really wouldn’t back anything carrying over 11-1 regardless of what the bottom weight is. My theory is that 11 stone is just too much for any horse to be carrying comfortably over 4m4f. Something further down the handicap will always have a far better chance (IMHO).
I think I’ve done all my Ante Post betting now and any further bets will be very close to day of the race when we can assess the going etc.
RM is my biggest backed to return around £1200
I’ve also covered my RM stake to return at least double the RM bet on the following horses.
State of Play
Garde Champetre
Himalayan Trail
Kilbeggan Blade
I’m willing to risk not backing Character Building and Butlers Cabin based on their Cheltenham runs (didn’t see anything from BC and I’ll not back a Cheltenham winner in the National).
The countdown begins!
#82
March 17th, 2009 12:21
Notelppa,95% of people who back in the national are once a year punters and
are not like us who study the Trends,etc.
IF Nina is on GC on the day the bookies will not be wanting her to win thats for sure.
#83
March 17th, 2009 12:21
Did this last night my best guess at weights and top 40 on the day barring injuries, think Brooklyn Him and co are all shoe ins to make the cut if Nicholls is true to his word about running Nozic add 1lb to all weights:
1 Cloudy Lane 9 11-10
2 War Of Attrition (IRE) 10 11-9
3 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 9 11-8
4 Snowy Morning (IRE) 9 11-8
5 Knowhere (IRE) 11 11-7
6 Comply Or Die (IRE) 10 11-6
7 Black Apalachi (IRE) 10 11-5
8 Hear The Echo (IRE) 8 11-5
9 One Cool Cookie (IRE) 8 11-5
10 Preists Leap (IRE) 9 11-5
11 King Johns Castle (IRE) 10 11-4
12 My Will (FR) 9 11-4
13 Eurotrek (IRE) 13 11-3
14 State of Play 9 11-2
15 Big Fella Thanks 7 11-1
16 Mon Mome (FR) 9 11-0
17 Silver Birch (IRE) 12 11-0
18 Butler’s Cabin (FR) 9 10-13
19 Offshore Account (IRE) 9 10-13
20 Reveillez 10 10-12
21 Golden Flight (FR) 10 10-11
22 L’ami (FR) 10 10-11
23 Battlecry 8 10-10
24 Cornish Sett (IRE) 10 10-10
25 Darkness 10 10-9
26 Irish Invader (IRE) 8 10-9
27 Rambling Minster 11 10-9
28 Southern Vic (IRE) 10 10-9
29 Always Waining (IRE) 8 10-8
30 Garde Champetre (FR) 10 10-8
31 Hot Weld 10 10-7
32 Kilbeggan Blade 10 10-7
33 Brooklyn Brownie (IRE) 10 10-6
34 Character Building (IRE) 9 10-6
35 Conna Castle (IRE) 10 10-6
36 Himalayan Trail 10 10-6
37 Tumbling Dice (IRE) 10 10-6
38 Arteea (IRE) 10 10-5
39 Cerium (FR) 8 10-5
40 Idle Talk (IRE) 10 10-5
#84
March 17th, 2009 12:21
At last the system sorted out and back to the easy old format – thank you Admin.
Racing Post says 7lbs weight rise likely.
So dont back anything currently on 10.09 or more which would carry 11.02. State Of Play is just in there on 10.08 and would carry 11.01 (just possible) but we may still and probably will get a 8lb rise in Cloudy Lane is top as we have all suspected and it will be the axe for SOP and many others.
So as I stated yesterday the winner is more and more likley in the good old trends of OR 137 to 144 (with a possibility of up to OR 146)
So back:
OR 144 – 10.02(currently)down to
OR 137 – 9.09
Of those price under 40/1 with Betfair today (at 11/40am)the GN 2009 winner is in this list (lowest price first):
Character Building OR140 weight 9.12 (15/1 Betfair prices)
Rambling Minster OR 143 weight 10.01 (33/2)
Garde Champetre OR 142 weight 10.00 (24/1)
Southern Vic OR 143 weight 10.01 (26/1)
Kilbeggan Blade OR 141 weight 9.13 (39/1)
Others to consider but a bit high in price profile:
Irish Invader (not won over 3m and nine runs this season – a big no to both). OR 143 weight 10.01 (39/1)
Himalayan Or 140 weight 9.12 (45/1)
Darkness OR 143 weight 10.01 (45/1 – the best of the bigger price runners and a real, dangerous “dark horse”)
Parsons Legacy OR 146 (a bit high) weight 10.04 (47/1). May never run like last year, price still too high so wait and see on this one.
Cornish Sett OR 144 weight 10.02 (64/1). Placed last year but very good trends.
Hot Weld OR 141 weight 9.13 (64/1).PU twice this season and TS best of 114 – will he even run (no 1/2/3 this season)? Cant recommend at all.
L’Ami Or 145 weight 10.03 (84/1). Price too high. Has had two chances and failed. In form so small saver could be considered, place possibilities.
“Now I am 98% confident the winner lies in this list and probably the main list of five with Darkness being to one we cant asses very well but a danger” (you can quote this if you like after the race)
The above list is a price order list and does not reflect my own preferences which i will post later (for what is worth a make it nine possible winners at most).
What do you think? Its getting easier now to sort the wheat from the chaff dont you think?
#85
March 17th, 2009 12:26
Notelppa Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Surely people back with their heads and see this as a negative?
Not the once a year backers who will look for a horse with a certain jockey on or has a name that reminds them of something.
take forest gunner for example that went off at 8-1 with only hedgehunter just pipping it to favourite at 7-1. the reason was Carrie ford was riding it to try and create history just like nina will be trying this year. Garde might not get tipped by many but it will certainly be getting all the headlines in the run up to the race.
#86
March 17th, 2009 12:30
Don’t know if we’re re-doing this League table, but my current top 6 are:
1: Rambo
2: Character Building
3: State of Play
4: My Will
5: Himalayan Trail
6: Kilbeggan Blade
This is to win, but my other recomendation is back Comply or Die to place.
#87
March 17th, 2009 12:31
Hope you’re right Brian, because I’ll be opposing GC.
#88
March 17th, 2009 12:33
Brody Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Did this last night my best guess at weights and top 40 on the day barring injuries, think Brooklyn Him and co are all shoe ins to make the cut if Nicholls is true to his word about running Nozic add 1lb to all weights:
Surely if Nozic runs then you need to take away 1lb from the weights.
Also there is a few horses above Idle talk that i think will still run that you have not included in your list.
#89
March 17th, 2009 12:35
1 Rambo
2 Garde Champetre
3 Character Building
4 Southern Vic
Strggling from here
5 Kilbeggan Blade
6 Parsons Legacy (I know I am going against common sense
here but just have put it in).
#90
March 17th, 2009 12:36
Just a note.
Being made the Fav for the GN this year is the “kiss of death”. We had a JFAV win last year with COD and no consecutive Fav has won the GN for over 100 years so I’am very happy if My Will is Fav (whatever happens we dont want Rambo as Fav!!).
#91
March 17th, 2009 12:45
One thing that is puzzling me is people posting that Character can’t win because he won his race at Cheltenham, did these people actually watch the race? Now I can understand why lots of Cheltenham winners flop at Aintree and have used opposing them in all the support races as a very profitable betting route for a couple of seasons and will do again this year.
The reason most Chelts winners bounce on return is they are still suffering from their all out exertions of getting up the hill in tough top class races run at a flat out gallop. Character Building (and to a certain extent Garde) on the other hand cruised easily within himself off the pace for a circuit glided up the inside rail at the top of the hill moving into a prime position without effort whilst at the same time the leaders including Butler’s came off the bridle and under heavy pressure. He then sailed up the hill under no pressure and was eased out to win by a comfortable length by the jockey with a little hands and heels, didn’t get down in the saddle or raise his whip once. I can’t remember a staying chase won at Chelts with so much seemingly in hand and he did all that with 11’12 on his back. At Aintree he will be at the bottom of the handicap receiving lumps from all the main players and yet he has no chance, I must be barking and better give the game up then as he looks a monster chance to me… After Rambo of course!
#92
March 17th, 2009 12:57
Brian says:
March 17, 2009 at 12:33 PM
Surely if Nozic runs then you need to take away 1lb from the weights.
Also there is a few horses above Idle talk that i think will still run that you have not included in your list.
Of course you’re right, should have said take away not add!
Be interested to hear who you would have as runners who I’ve missed, don’t doubt I will have misjudged a few. Still this time tomorrow should have a clearer picture as the official withdrawls should be out.
#93
March 17th, 2009 12:59
systems you have a special black square on my screen and the rest of us have cluedo icons?!?
oh dear
Interesting list Notelppa, my Will and Him Trail creeping back in. Think your list/thinking like me,..just when I’d ruled those 2 out they made me think again. With a poss 8lb rise think My Will may stay off my top6.
Brodys list is for 8lb rise Cloudy top weight, like Brian said take away 1lb if Nozic runs.
#94
March 17th, 2009 13:00
Excellent post Systemsman. Hopefully the winner is in that list.
I’ve just had a quick look at Brooklyn Brownie and he does meet quite a few trends…
* Age 8 to 12 (Age 10)
* Won one or more 3m+ Chase (Yes)
* Run in 10+ Chases (Yes)
* Won Class 2 or better Chase (Yes)
* Won Chase worth over £17,000 (No, won £16,262)
* Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight on the day (Yes)
* Top 3 finish in Class 1 Chase over 3m+ (No, was 2m 7f)
* Top 3 finish in any of last 3 runs (Yes)
* Last run no greater than 50 days (Yes)
* No more than one none finish that season (Yes)
* Topspeed of 128+ (Yes)
* RPR of 144+ (No, 143)
* Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh/Irish/Scots National, Top 2 in race over National fences or 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+ (Yes, 2nd in Sefton)
Obviously I don’t see him winning the race, but the fact that he is a whisker away from matching all of the above means to me that Paddy Power offering 66/1 for 5 places about him could be a nice Each Way bet. Especially with his form over the fences.
I usually have a big priced Each Way bet on the day just for a laugh. He could be the one.
#95
March 17th, 2009 13:00
My top 3 ante post bets
1 Garde Champetre(Seychelles for the summer)
2 Rambling Minster(fortnight in Florida)
3 State of Play(week in Scarborough)
I’m also on Revillez and Battlecry for a few quid but i doubt they’ll take part or if they do won’t win.
Gonna have a saver on the day-probably Character Building !
#96
March 17th, 2009 13:04
With you Brody, can’t write off CB. He’s currently my number 2. The other factor to take in to account is the fact that his performance pays great respect to Rambo’s recent victories over CB.
There have been discussions re the relative strengths of these two horses and I’m happy that Rambo has the beating of CB. The fact that many will have CB in their to 3 or 4 is making me more and more confident about Rambo with CB requiring a definite saver.
#97
March 17th, 2009 13:08
Testing … testing …. Val, Noakesy … anybody there
#98
March 17th, 2009 13:14
systems are you our dark horse?!;)
I haven’t gone for CB because just don’t fancy him, that may change, I read race in two minds, firstly as Brody wrote and also as a lazy win, as in who he beat, his demeanernearing end as in not concentrating, but could have been enjoying himself which is good. But he has disappointed b4 that race, not sure he will perform and he is a grey!!! ha ha. Can’t back em all etc simple as that.
Gotta go now, wanna chat and sort through, but not back til tmw, so keep up good banter post cheltenham, see you soon
by the way, Showlad started the top6 thing and seems to be away, but no reason why if anyone is ready you can’t kick it off! same styley!
#99
March 17th, 2009 13:16
Cover bets on WOA and Snowy probably worthless now in light of expected 7lb weights rise, but I am happy with my three:
RAMBLING MINSTER
STATE OF PLAY
SOUTHERN VIC (RPR of 157 on Saturday – 2 lb below his Grade 1-winning best – he might not get his ground (but would well watered ground not suit? Remember the animal rights brigade are high profile at this time of year and so ground must be comfortable for the horses) – but hats off to his trainer for making this one one of the best handicapped runners I can remember – Ruby very pleased with him on Saturday – another Old Vic sharpened up in blinkers – Emma Jane is a good Irish handicapper and has some fair scalps this season – all systems go with this one – totally different class to Character Building IF it stays)
#100
March 17th, 2009 13:16
So many stats hold up surrounding the GN. I posted a long time back that, read it somewhere, one of the top 6 in the weights on weights day have lined up in the last 11 GN’s. Nozic was number six and is a definite runner according to Nicholls- so we knew on weights day that there was a very good chance that weights would rise 7lbs at the most. Also the average cut off point in recent times is somewhere around the eighty mark- no 73 last year- so again we knew on weights that there was a very good chance that a bet on something in the top 70 would get a run(provided they didn’t drop out!) Great stats for ante post betting!
Have looked at weights/age of last 18 GN’s 90-08(since fence modification) and the previous 18 GN’s 72-89. Will post shortly.
#101
March 17th, 2009 13:28
I see My Will is now 10/1 fave on Betfair,
I also see I backed him at 330/1 last summer,
I also see I laid off practically all of my winnings on him before weights day….
ARRRGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
#102
March 17th, 2009 13:29
OK, new league table. 6 points for 1st choice, down to 1 for 6th. Putting mine and Comply’s lists above, the standings look like this….
Rambo 12
Character Building 9
Garde Champetre 5
State of Play 4
My Will 3
Southern Vic 3
Kilbeggan Blade 3
Himalayan Trail 2
Parsons Legacy 1
This is to win, but my other recomendation is back Comply or Die to place.
#103
March 17th, 2009 13:32
Pablo, I can see your point re Southern Vic, but I think people are being a bit ungenerous towards Character Building.
2nd to Butlers over 33f at Cheltenham just a month before Butlers wins Irish National, beaten less than 3 lengths by the Rumbling Monster giving him 4lbs over 27f at Cheltenham and a 3rd in the Hennessey. The two times he’s failed at 28f or more seems to have been due to extremes in going- good to firm/heavy.
Southern Vic has raced twice at 25f or more and finished 4/5 and unseated.
#104
March 17th, 2009 13:54
Can someone tell me why Grand National betting is suspended on Betfair at the moment?
#105
March 17th, 2009 13:56
Forfeit Stage today. The market will be suspended until the announcement of which horses have been forfeited is made. This will probably take a while. Maybe not til tomorrow.
#106
March 17th, 2009 14:01
Nice to see the support for Character Crisp
His form looks great to me too. That 27f race at Cheltenham was run on Good to Soft ground which would suit them both and Rambling won fair and square by 2 and 3/4 lengths receiving 4lbs in weight from Character. In the National Character receives 3lbs in weight from Rambling. So that’s a 7lb swing for a 2 and 3/4 length defeat. Based on that I see them as very closely matched.
Can’t have Southern Vic as the winner myself as he doesn’t meet the key trend that Crisp started and I finished regarding Top 5 Hennessey etc.
#107
March 17th, 2009 14:01
Crisp
I can’t disagree with the facts that you put forward but I interpret them in a different way with regard to future performance.
There appears to be a concensus on here that a lowly-weighted horse (orginal weights) will likely win and BC, CB, RM, SV, GC, Darkness, CS, KB all crop up on someone’s list (several on most people’s lists).
At some point I have to judge which ones I think give me the best chance of winning me a really decent amount of money. Although I have had a couple of savers (still to win a respectable amount) on classy horses, I’m not so interested in making a small profit whatever wins as making a killing if one of my selections prevails.
The kudos of backing the National winner is not important either – it’s a high profit on the race over the long term so that 1 winner in 3 will leave me very happy, 2 delirious and 3 working part time.
Rambling Minster – most of us have made a good case for this one
State Of Play – Hennessy winner carrying less weight
Southern Vic – well-weighted Grade 1-winning chaser
Each one, in a different way, looks very attractive to me.
This is how I see Southern Vic’s two attempts that you refer to:
4/5 = level weights with Black Apalachi and getting into the race when jumping error cost him chance of being much closer – jumped much better in blinkers last time out
U = have you seen a softer unseating? Jockey error not horse’s fault
Character Building has strong credentials – I just feel that he lacks something compared with my three and therefore, to me, does not rate a decent bet
But that’s my opinion
#108
March 17th, 2009 14:15
Only race that has changed my opinions from pre-fest list is the Kim Muir, selections remain unchanged just the order
Rambo 6
Character Building 5
Garde Champetre 4
Southern Vic 3
Himalayan Trail 2
Butler’s Cabin 1
Running total
Rambo 18
Character Building 14
Garde Champetre 9
Southern Vic 6
State of Play 4
My Will 3
Himalayan Trail 4
Kilbeggan Blade 3
Parsons Legacy 1
Butler’s Cabin 1
#109
March 17th, 2009 14:16
Hi Notelppa and Comply.
As previously posted new GRAND NATIONAL TIPS LEAGUE is launched tomorrow AFTER next forfeit has ben announced.
Tonight I’ll be posting up my analysis of previous table and looking to new one
If your Top 6′s haven’t changed after forfeit stage – no worries just both of you post up same list again.
We’re starting it 2mo to give us all chance to reflect on latest withdrawals.
#110
March 17th, 2009 14:19
Having said all that – as advised by the legend that is Systemsman – I will be saving a bet for the day and CB might be that bet if nothing else dramatic occurs in the meantime
#111
March 17th, 2009 14:22
Just to say GN is defo Brooklyn’s aim – he’s only entered in Tpham (or wateva it is) in case he doesn’t make cut – from trainer.
Nice outsider
#112
March 17th, 2009 14:25
nice 1 showlad. Cheers.
#113
March 17th, 2009 14:27
Pablo, I must admit I’ve looked at Southern Vic a lot due to many glowing reports here, everything seems in place for a GN winner to emerge but he hasn’t quite performed or are the signs there, just me looking to hard. If Walsh rides it must be a huge plus.
So State Of Play to carry 11-1? Williams the horse is confident, can’t fail to place can it? Compensation for missed Grand Slam!
#114
March 17th, 2009 14:35
Garde Champetre seems to be the ‘marmite’ this year. Half for, half against- I’m against as it fails on top3 C1 chase, a 23/23 stat. I suppose to be fair hasn’t ran in any top races for ages! Perhaps that is a clue, surely Bolger would have chanced his arm somewhere just to gauge the horses true strength or is he just being canny.
#115
March 17th, 2009 14:41
Taking from the sportinglife website RE: State of Play
State Of Play is on course for the John Smith’s Grand National after pleasing connections in a piece of work on Tuesday.
This season’s Charlie Hall Chase winner seems to have benefited from a mid-winter break since finishing fourth in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
“State Of Play will go to the Grand National. He worked this morning on grass and worked very well,” said trainer Evan Williams.
“He’s fresh, he’s well and the National is where he’ll go.”
State Of Play, whose finest hour came when winning the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury in 2006, is a 20-1 chance with Sky Bet for the Aintree marathon on April 4.
#116
March 17th, 2009 14:45
crisp 73 Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:35 PM
Garde Champetre seems to be the ‘marmite’ this year. Half for, half against- I’m against as it fails on top3 C1 chase, a 23/23 stat. I suppose to be fair hasn’t ran in any top races for ages! Perhaps that is a clue, surely Bolger would have chanced his arm somewhere just to gauge the horses true strength or is he just being canny.
I hope it is him being canny. Garde Champetre cost over half a million so not running in Grade 1′s smells of a plot to me as surely you woul dbe running it in grade 1′s if you have forked out that much for it but maybe thats just me being overly hopeful as i’ve a nice decent wedge of my cash on this horse.
#117
March 17th, 2009 15:14
Crisp
“If Walsh rides it must be a huge plus.”
Would be ideal.
#118
March 17th, 2009 15:23
if im reading this right then Rambling minster just has to turn up to win-ive backed Garde as well but after cheltenham and watching last years race ive a sneaky that butlers might well hack up-Ruby won Cheltenham by a mile thats gotta have wound a.p up !!
#119
March 17th, 2009 15:26
But will Ruby be allowed to ride for his dad? As someone who has money down on SV I’d take it as a great omen to have the winning combination reunited but I can’t see it, I know Mullins gets first call in Ireland and Paul has him as retained rider in England, but not sure if he is allowed a free choice in a special one off race like the GN. If Nicholls had no real chances I’m sure he happily let Ruby ride for his Dad but with My Will at the head of the betting surely Nicholls will pull rank and demand him jocking up his best shot?
Have to admit my biggest concern re Character Building is the jockey just don’t rate Costello that highly and hope they can find a better rider who can get the best out of him as he is not the easiest ride. An over-aggressive jock like Thornton or McCoy would be the worst possible choice imo.
#120
March 17th, 2009 16:28
Tote have taken Garde Champetre out their betting for the National.Is this anything to worry about?
#121
March 17th, 2009 16:40
Further info on today’s forfeit stage from the Aintree site:
“The second scratchings deadline for the John Smith’s Grand National is at noon on Tuesday, March 17, details of which will be announced at Aintree’s Northern Media event the following day.”.
#122
March 17th, 2009 16:42
Texas Pete,
Not necessarily as they could just be re-pricing (Hills did the same with Rambo a couple of weeks back). However, what does look worring is that he’s been taken out of their betting with the likes of ED, SDM, Snoopy Loopy and a few others that look unlikely runners, so perhaps they know something. His price is holding up on Betfair though so I wouldn’t worry unless it drifts or other bookies take the horse out.
#123
March 17th, 2009 16:43
Stayer – Betfair’s suspended.
#124
March 17th, 2009 16:46
Yes you’re right Notelppa. I just flashed up Oddschecker and the last Betfair prices are still on there.
#125
March 17th, 2009 16:47
Thanks Stayer as Notelppa said Betfair is suspended which is the best guide on the horses intentions,its got me worried but hopefully your right and they are just re-pricing!
#126
March 17th, 2009 16:56
Don’t you just love Aintree? Midday’s the deadline and they don’t release the details until tomorrow. Hate to say it, but I’m hoping GC’s withdrawn. I can’t see it winning but given the good things said on this site, I’d kick myself if he won. Same thing goes for Southern Vic.
#127
March 17th, 2009 17:11
I phoned the tote and told them i was thinking about opening an account and asked about Garde the girl went away and then came back and said she’s got it down as a non-runner.I hope to god she’s wrong!
#128
March 17th, 2009 17:24
Well it looks like the Tote have got a scoop on the withdrawals for today
They confirmed to me also that the trainer had withdrawn the horse at todays forfeit stage.
#129
March 17th, 2009 17:25
Got a bad feeling about this as every other horse Totesport have removed I would guess is a def NR tomorrow including Madison. Bloody McManus more money than sense, horse would definitely be in the top 4.
#130
March 17th, 2009 17:28
An aperitif to Showlad’s Grand National League table.
A look at weights as we get our final selections together.
Comparing the 18 GN’s since the fences have been modified, 90-08, to the previous 18 GN’s and the 18 before that.
54-71; six winners carried 11st or more /11-5 in 1965 but bottom weight was 10-13.
72-89; six winners carried 11st or more /including super horse Rummy’s 74/77 wins.
90-08; one winner carried 11st, Hedgehunter 11st 1lb, or more to victory and bottom weight was 10st 5lbs.
54-71; 13 placed with 11st or more though two carried only 9lbs/6lbs more than bottom weight.
72-89; 17 placed with 11st or more.
90-08; 12 placed with 11st or more though last year Snowy Morning 11-0, and Slim Pickings 11-3 only carried 7lbs and 10lbs more than bottom weight.
#131
March 17th, 2009 17:35
The ‘pennies’ are really trickling in now for the Cornish Pastie!
#132
March 17th, 2009 17:42
I think it is safe to say that the Tote have got some inside information and the horses that they don’t offer prices on today will indeed form the list of withdrawals.
Garde Champetre
Exotic dancer
Madison du berlais
Star de mohaison
opera mundi
one cool cookie
snoopy loopy
monkerhostin
ballyfitz
l’antartique
silverburn
piraya
lothian falcon
hoopy
oulart
Simon
Notre pere
imperial commander
Miko de beauchene.
So i suspect that this will be the official withdrawals released at Noon tomorrow.
#133
March 17th, 2009 17:52
if this list is correct then rambo and southern vic scrape in and hot weld brings up the rear at number 40
leaving Kilbeggan blade, Character building and Brooklyn brownie at 41,42 and 43.
#134
March 17th, 2009 17:55
On no not that new blog system again (no way of going direct to a page of 50 posts without going through every page of 50 posts!!) – Admin bring back the old simple one we had this morning – please.
#135
March 17th, 2009 17:58
slight amendment not sure who will be in 40th position as both Kilbeggan blane and hot weld have both the same weight and same OR…not too sure what happens in the event of a double tie, maybe they have a dead heat
#136
March 17th, 2009 18:27
Well it looks certain that RAMBO will get in now so its all systems go for Aintree.I’ve been backing Rambo since the beginning of feb and can’t find any other horse to beat it.So looks like my eggs will be in one basket this year, so i hope to win enough money to buy a Harley Davidson to go with my Leather Jacket!!cheers ian beale
#137
March 17th, 2009 19:10
One Cool Cookie booked his ticket for the Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National with victory at Down Royal.
Charlie Swan’s runner was sent off a 5-2 shot under Davy Russell despite being saddled with top weight in the Guinness Chase.
He made light work of his burden though, racing prominently before taking over at the last and staying on to hold Selection Box by a length and a half with disappointing 4-5 favourite Arbor Supreme only third.
William Hill cut One Cool Cookie to 33-1 from 50s for the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree but Swan is planning a crack at the Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse on April 13 instead.
He said: “He is a 149-rated horse and it is grand to have won two races with him this year. He has that Grade One penalty that doesn’t make life easy for him.
“He’ll go now for the Irish Grand National. He is a grand horse and I wouldn’t mind having a few more like him.”
#138
March 17th, 2009 19:35
Just got this reply from tote
Hello Chris.
Thank you for your email.
I can confirm that Garde Champetre has become a non runner in the Grand National.
Kind Regards
Angela Brennan
Customer Care Advisor
#139
March 17th, 2009 19:38
Re Character Building getting in to the National, I don’t think the ORs for Cheltenham have been updated as CB is still quoted at 139. I would guess this will happen any day now as there’s a story on the RP site that Kauto is the highest rated horse in the country ahead of Master Minded. I’d guess when this is done, CB will be first in line of the 9-12 brigade thus needing 2 to withdraw.
Great news about GC. Just need CB to miss the cut now (though that’s unlikely). Rambo all the way….
#140
March 17th, 2009 20:09
Notelppa,
A bit mean-spirited celebrating the ‘great news’ the GC won’t be running, as posters on here have backed it. I didn’t fancy the horse myself but some people had invested their hard-earned and as a punter I don’t rejoice in the fact they won’t get a run for their money. It could happen to any one of us so lets hope Rambo makes the start.
#141
March 17th, 2009 20:09
That’s great news if those are indeed the withdrawals. Such a shame about Garde as he seemed to have a nice each way shout.
Just need two more no hopers to pull out now for Character to secure his place in the line up. Come on trainers, get the rags out of the field please.
#142
March 17th, 2009 20:15
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
#143
March 17th, 2009 20:28
Money lost on Garde but I always suspected he was not the NO 1 best bet wihout a place in a Class 1 chase. Lossing the bet is compensated by knowng there is less competition for Rambo.
#144
March 17th, 2009 20:54
That’s the gamble with ante posting betting ladies and gents. Only had a small amount on it (compared to Rambo), so no great loss. Hope no-ones been too badly hit.
#145
March 17th, 2009 21:08
Hi Speedyseagull it was me.
The final GRAND NATIONAL LEAGUE TABLE is getting posted up along with my analysis in a few minutes.
Then new table opens up tomorrow, after the next forfeit stage news has been released for us all to evaluate, and the table is put back to Zero and we start from scratch again.
#146
March 17th, 2009 21:12
I just read speedy’s post about next Top 6 table and posted up accordingly my reply. Then when I refreshed all these latest posts appeared…sorry guys…this thread’s playin up again
#147
March 17th, 2009 21:31
Come on then Showlad. Let’s see the analysis
#148
March 17th, 2009 21:58
FINAL STAGE 1 PLACINGS
GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPS LEAGUE:
Rambling Minster 172
State Of Play 103
Butler’s Cabin 53
Garde Champetre 53
Darkness 41
Black Apalachi 37
Cornish Sett 30
Southern Vic 21
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 17
L’Ami 15
Himalayan Trail 10
Comply or Die 9
Hear The Echo 7
Snowy Morning 7
War Of Attrition 5
My Will 5
Chelsea Harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Hot Weld 3
Preists Leap 2
Fundamentalist 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
Snowy Morning 1
ANALYSIS SUMMARY:
Well it’s Rambo all the way – according to our Expert Bloggers on this site!! RAMBLING MINISTER soars ahead of the competition, nearly 70 points ahead of his nearest rival. His worthy and proven stamina credentials, recent Class 1 win and the style in which he did it at Haydock, have him massively tipped to be Comply or Die’s successor on April 4th. On top of that is his allocation of a feather weight and you (nearly) all found awarding him the maximum 6 points irresistable.
STATE OF PLAY seems to have won over many by the sheer class of this horse, convincing many that his longer than preferred last run stat actually may be for the best for this class act. The emphatic gap he has made between him and the 3rd favoured horse is just as impressive as Rambo’s lead over him – these two are WAY AHEAD of the chasing pack. STATE OF PLAY has garnered nearly double the points of his nearest rivals.
Worries over Garde’s lack of Class 1 pedigree and Butler’s Cabin’s form famine haven’t done them too much damage – as we rated them equal third for the big one.
They are closely followed by the cracking form of DARKNESS. Just behind him is BLACK APALACHI who is still seen as a force by many -this faith would have been much re-inforced had it not been for his punishing weight.
Those that have faith that a resurgent CORNISH SETT can turn around last year’s 10th placing voice this well, as his turn comes next and he is placed a creditable 7th.
SOUTHERN VIC has appeared to be losing faith in many quarters and he does his best to stay in touch and appears next in the pecking order.
Kilbeggan Blade’s unkown quantities, the mysteriousness of Parson’s Legacy, French new found cross country star (and much lighter weighted) L’Ami and the hopelessly out of form Himalayan Trail get a few shouts in, before we drop to totals of only single figures.
Astonishinlgy in the ‘single figures’ club are the well-in-on-the-weights-super-5th-Gold Cup-new-favourite My Will and the hugely returned to form Character Building. But me thinks that will all change in our new League Table and these two will be the highest climbers. But just how high will they climb?
Well Stage 1 Table showed the findings with us all looking through the glass pretty dimly..I wonder what our new Table will tell us from tomorrow when the picture is becoming ever so much clearer…
In the new table can we all make an effort to update any errors, tables not totalled up etc, ta much.
STAGE 2 OPENS TOMORROW (FOLLOWING NEXT FORFEIT STAGE INFO RELEASED)
FINAL AND LAST STAGE (3) WILL BE ON MARCH 31ST FOLLOWING THE 5/6 DAY CONFIRMATION ANNOUNCEMENTS ON MARCH 30.
Best, Showlad
#149
March 17th, 2009 21:59
Certainly not gloating about Garde Champetre, hope that bloggers can recoup. Going back some weeks though I’m sure the feeling here was that Cheltenham was his number one aim and it is very rare that a horse wins the National as an afterthought- I can remember Rough Quest being very doubtful but his Gold Cup 2nd persuaded connections to run it on 10-7 – and whoever has decided has decided in the best interests of Garde Champetre.
#150
March 17th, 2009 22:16
Yes, a shame about GC for those who backed him. I had him in the no chance whatsoever category but would sooner have seen him have a run and see if I was right – or others on here were. The same goes for L’Ami.
I also agree with others that CB is a saver bet only – I don’t see him as win material but have to have a bet on him now to cover some stake money. Indeed I am sure someone like McCoy said he was a GN winner in waiting a couple of years ago. in my own mind, his run and that of My Will at Cheltenham just helps set up a fairly soft couple of favourites for the day.
#151
March 17th, 2009 22:22
What do people make of Brooklyn Brownie? He only got 2pts in the last table but with the weights possibly going up 7lbs and the chance of him getting in looking quite good, I have taken more interest. I think he has a chance. He meets a lot of the major stats in terms of age, experience, winner over 3m and has also had a good spin over the fences when second to Endless Power in the Grand Sefton. That’s experience which many of the principals don’t have. He’s also got quite a good pedigree in that his dam’s sire Lafontaine sired Papillon and other decent stayers like Ever Blessed and Spot Thedifference. I think there are worse 66/1 shots.
#152
March 17th, 2009 22:37
I rate him rather highly Stayer.
Unknown at GN distance, but to me he has a last year’s KJC about him..
#153
March 18th, 2009 01:53
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@!
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more came back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Ells
1
#154
March 18th, 2009 01:56
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@! Backed at 42s which is frustrating aswell as I could have layed out. Unlucky for those who backed ‘any other’ on Sky Bet for favourite for the GN – Gutted for Nina. Had a real live chance ther imo.
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more came back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Ells
1
#155
March 18th, 2009 02:11
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many, many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Plus the likes of Cornish Sett?
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@! Backed at 42s which is frustrating aswell as I could have layed out. Unlucky for those who backed ‘any other’ on Sky Bet for favourite for the GN – Gutted for Nina. Had a real live chance ther imo.
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more coming back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Ells
1
#156
March 18th, 2009 02:14
For those still into BC. Comments from today/yesterday.
McCoy’s employer, JP McManus, also has Garde Champetre, but another cross-country success at the Festival reiterated how sweetly that horse goes for Nina Carberry. “I haven’t spoken to JP yet but King Johns Castle and Butler’s Cabin are the obvious ones,” McCoy confirmed. “Butler’s ran OK at Cheltenham, though I’m wondering whether he should have been winning that if he’s going to have a chance in the National. It wouldn’t put me off that he fell with me last year – he just knuckled over at Becher’s, and he’d jumped as well as anything up to then. I suppose Garde Champetre might come into the thinking, but we’ll see what the boss says.”
Couldn’t agree more McCoy, couldn’t agree more.
Ells
1
#157
March 18th, 2009 03:45
Stephen,
Mums the word but I make it a 10LB. swing between CB and RM. The wee jockey was -3Lb.
Crisp 73,
Maybe Bolger is being canny about L’Ami ?.
#158
March 18th, 2009 06:22
Miinnehoma,
The jocks allowance was already taken into account when it shows the weight carried on the Racing Post website.
On the day Character was rated 136 carrying 11-12 and Rambling was rated 135 carrying 11-8 (should be 11-11 withought jock). So therefore it is indeed a 7lbs swing.
New ratings are out and Character is best rated of the 9-12 bunch on 145. So finger crossed he makes it.
I notice the Racing Post making a big deal about My Will being 8lbs well in for the National. They didn’t mention that Rambling Minster is 6lbs well in and Character Building now 5lbs well in though.
#159
March 18th, 2009 08:20
Hi people,
First time I’ve posted on here but read a lot – lots of useful info. There are a couple of horses on befair that seem to have been reduced in odds and I haven’t seen any discussion about – notably:
Offshore account (50/1)
Irish Invader (40/1)
Roll Along (70/1)
I was wondering if anyone had anything on these horses; are they all entered, and have any of them got a chance? I like the look of offshore account even if hasnt raised much recently, Irish Invader doesn’t look like he will stay, and I’m thinking Roll Along is likely to be withdrawn given the odds, and the fact that only finished a neck behind My Will at the gold cup and My Will is 10/1 fav!
For what its worth my money is on Rambo, Butlers Cabin and State of Play at present (in that order)and have a couple of others that I am considering a smaller bet on.
#160
March 18th, 2009 10:14
For final anlaysis can anyone list up of the races run at Aintree throughout the year, which are run over the GN fences/course and which are not? Would be a great help for past form.
#161
March 18th, 2009 10:15
Thank God back to usual thread – Thanks Admin
#162
March 18th, 2009 10:27
No, now it’s reverted to new 50-a-page system again lol
#163
March 18th, 2009 10:36
Showlad – I can oblige. The races run over the national fences are:
Topham Chase (formerly John Hughes)
Fox Hunters Chase
Grand Sefton Handicap Chase
Becher Handicap Chase
#164
March 18th, 2009 11:46
For what is worth I am in the middle of my final “Black Book” asssessment (this is a basic trends profile that highlights the likely winners and found CoD last year)- I always use it as a final check to see if it confirms our other short lists/winners profiles.
You need 3 stars to be in the short lit of possible winners.
My Will cuurent weight 10.10. OR 152
11.03 if 7lb rise in weights 2 stars+
11.04 if 8lb rise in weights (most likely) 1 star+
So in my humble opinion My Will cnanot win the 2009 GN! He has also only had two prep races and not the 3 min that is in the usual GN winners profile (I dont regard this factor as an elimination issue just another negative) .
Full results coming soon (I cant wait myself even as this final check will resolve lots of issues outstanding)
#165
March 18th, 2009 12:01
Can I make a request?
After the great race, win or lose can we all post up what we have learnt from this year’s ante-post betting?
However obvious they may appear – a list of dos and don’ts will be invaluable in the build up to next year’s race.
Personally I have bet on far too many horses on Betfair and traded well on some but poorly on others (admittedly to smallish stakes) – sometimes I find it too easy to overreact to events on Betfair (going green on Garde Champetre and Character Building for example immediately after their wins), whereas my bets at the bookies are better considered because I am handing over real cash!
#166
March 18th, 2009 12:11
STAR chaser Madison Du Berlais is the latest high-profile Grand National entry to have been taken out of the Aintree showpiece, for which the weights have been raised 5lbs.
Betfair Chase winner Snoopy Loopy heads the 88 runners left in the Grand National on 11st 10lb with Nozic, one of five possible starters for Paul Nicholls, next best on 11st 8lb.
Following the raising of the weights, favourite My Will is pegged on 11st 1lb, Butler’s Cabin has 10st 10lb and last year’s hero Comply Or Die is on 11st 3lb.
Among the other 17 scratchings are Cheltenham winner Imperial Commander and Garde Champetre, Exotic Dancer and Notre Pere.
#167
March 18th, 2009 12:12
Trainer Peter Bowen said of Snoopy Loopy, who was pulled up in the Gold Cup: “He doesn’t run in the Grand National. If he did run again he would go in the Betfair Bowl at Aintree.”
“I don’t know what went wrong [in the Gold Cup], whether he got a knock or something. But he’s fine now. We’ve no real plans. The Grand National entry was precautionary.”
#168
March 18th, 2009 12:14
Make your mind up Bowen…
Trainer Peter Bowen said of Snoopy Loopy, who was pulled up in the Gold Cup: “He doesn’t run in the Grand National. If he did run again he would go in the Betfair Bowl at Aintree.”
“I don’t know what went wrong [in the Gold Cup], whether he got a knock or something. But he’s fine now. We’ve no real plans. The Grand National entry was precautionary.”
#169
March 18th, 2009 12:15
Which horses have now officially moved up into the top 40 does anyone know?
#170
March 18th, 2009 12:35
I make it Rambling is in at number 38.
41. Kilbeggan Blade
42. Hot Weld
43. Character Building
44. Brooklyn Brownie
#171
March 18th, 2009 12:46
41 always waining
42 Kilbeggan blade
43 hot weld
44 character building
45 brooklyn brownie
#172
March 18th, 2009 12:51
checked racing post website racing card for the national snoppy loopy top weight.
Whats does everyone think of irish invader
#173
March 18th, 2009 12:54
I think mine is correct puzzled. Always waining is in at number 40.
#174
March 18th, 2009 12:56
SYSTEMSMAN
please could i trouble you for the information of how accurate the pre xmas trends are as a stat in the winner being in the list,as x ref with other stats leaves me with an interesting list of 6,which may be reduced to 4 depending where i decide to draw the line on weight carried.
#175
March 18th, 2009 12:57
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many, many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Plus the likes of Cornish Sett?
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@! Backed at 42s which is frustrating aswell as I could have layed out. Unlucky for those who backed ‘any other’ on Sky Bet for favourite for the GN – Gutted for Nina. Had a real live chance ther imo.
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more coming back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Also, for those who still support Butlers Cabin, Mccoy said this the other day:
“I haven’t spoken to JP yet but King Johns Castle and Butler’s Cabin are the obvious ones,” McCoy confirmed. “Butler’s ran OK at Cheltenham, though I’m wondering whether he should have been winning that if he’s going to have a chance in the National.
Couldn’t agree more AP, couldn’t agree more.
Ells
1
#176
March 18th, 2009 13:00
stephen i have checked again and i still make always waining at 41 and Southern vic at 40, (snoopy loopy as not been withdrawn)any one else confirm the bottom 2 places please
#177
March 18th, 2009 13:01
“johnny says:
March 18, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Whats does everyone think of irish invader”
No Chase win at 3m rules him out for me.
#178
March 18th, 2009 13:03
checked the racimg post website and it says he does
#179
March 18th, 2009 13:05
Count it on the Racing Post card Puzzled. Still comes out like I said. I’ve checked three times now lol.
#180
March 18th, 2009 13:06
half day harry.
At the time I looked at about 120 runners so it was easy to make the odd mistake (like I forgot to assess Rambling Minster who does qualify). All I can say is that all the last ten winners had achieved the requirements by Christmas or shortly after (its an amazing fact but true).
You can see the full post dated 17th December under “Grand Natonal 2009 ante-post”. I am using the list myself (more useful if combined with Stephens GN winners profile) to refine my short list – you might like to wait for my “Black Book” assesment which i hope to have out tonight.
#181
March 18th, 2009 13:07
“johnny says:
March 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM
checked the racimg post website and it says he does”
He has a 3m Hurdle win Johnny. Furthest Chase win is at 2m 2f.
#182
March 18th, 2009 13:17
“johnny says:
March 18, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Whats does everyone think of irish invader”
On the face of it you would say no chance,would not fit the profile of a Grand National winner on previous trends,however in a similar way to King John’s Castle last year this horse could be a plotted sleeper as certainly looking Irish Invader’s pedigree you would give him a chance.last win shows he has speed to win at shorter distance from front, and Trainer certainly knows time of day concerning whats needed to win a National,as he showed with Hedgehunter,also how about Training performance with Cooldine in R S A chase at chelt.
#183
March 18th, 2009 13:17
I have Always Waining at 40, not 41.
I think anything outside the top 50 is dodgy now, but does anybody have any stats on this? I seem to remember Dun Doire being number 40 last year. What number was he on 2nd forfeit stage?
#184
March 18th, 2009 13:20
Thanks Systemsman, will wait for final assesment from you tonight and then collate with my own list, things certainly getting clearer now
#185
March 18th, 2009 13:30
Sorry Stephen you are quite right Always waining no 40…..ok so i did not go to school and i cannot count very well
I printed my list from the rp web site and it lists Monkerhostin i refreshed and he has gone, error solved.
#186
March 18th, 2009 13:30
Please see the quote in respect of Snoopy Loopy in my previous post. Although he has not been withdrawn, the trainer has confirmed he will not run in the National.
With this in mind, the weights will rise a minimum of 7lb, 8lb if Norzic doesn’t run and Cloudy Lane becomes top-weight.
This makes the picture much clearer, and I think things are now really taking shape.
On the above basis, State Of Play would be carrying too much weight for my liking as I will work on the basis that the winner will not carry more than 11-1. This also takes My Will out of consideration.
#187
March 18th, 2009 13:39
Go Rambo! Today: “Keith Reveley described Rambling Minster as being “in the form of his life” ahead Aintree.
Reveley said: “He has come out of Haydock smashing and is in great form. Everything has gone well since and I just hope that I can keep him as he is now until the race.”
#188
March 18th, 2009 13:53
Weights and entries as it stands. Hope this is of use to someone. Can’t wait to get home from work and factor this into my calculations.
1 SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-10 Peter Bowen
2 NOZIC (FR) 8-11-08 Paul Nicholls
3 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-07 Donald McCain Jnr
4 AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-06 Noel Meade IRE
5 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-06 Mouse Morris IRE
6 CHELSEA HARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-05 Tom Mullins IRE
7 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-05 Willie Mullins IRE
8 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-04 Nigel Twiston-Davies
9 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-11-04 Carl Llewellyn
10 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-03 Pipe
11 OLLIE MAGERN 11-11-03 Nigel Twiston-Davies
12 STAN (NZ) 10-11-03 VenetiaWilliams
13 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-02 Dessie Hughes IRE
14 HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-02 Mouse Morris IRE
15 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-02 Tom O’Leary IRE
16 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-11-01 Arthur Moore IRE
17 MY WILL (FR) 9-11-01 Paul Nicholls
18 EUROTREK (IRE) 13-11-00 Paul Nicholls
19 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-13 Evan Williams
20 BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-12 Nicholls
21 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-11 VenetiaWilliams
22 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
23 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-10 Jonjo O’Neill
24 HOBBS HILL 10-10-10 Charles Egerton
25 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-10 Charlie Swan IRE
26 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-09 Philip Hobbs
27 REVEILLEZ 10-10-09 Jonjo O’Neill
28 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-08 Nigel Twiston-Davies
29 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-08 Nicky Henderson
30 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-08 Enda Bolger IRE
31 BATTLECRY 8-10-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies
32 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-07 Paul Nicholls
33 FLEET STREET 10-10-07 Nicky Henderson
34 MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-07 Francois Cottin FR
35 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-06 Jonjo O’Neill
36 DARKNESS 10-10-06 Charles Egerton
37 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-06 Willie Mullins IRE
38 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-06 Keith Reveley
39 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-06 Ted Walsh IRE
40 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-05 Peter Bowen
41 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-04 Tom George
42 HOT WELD 10-10-04 Ferdy Murphy
43 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-03 John Quinn
44 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-03 Malcolm Jefferson
45 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
46 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
47 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-10-03 Tom Taaffe IRE
48 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-02 David Pipe
49 CERIUM (FR) 8-10-02 Paul Murphy
50 IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-10-02 Donald McCain Jnr
51 KELAMI (FR) 11-10-02 Lisa Williamson
52 ZABENZ (NZ) 12-10-02 Philip Hobbs
53 ICE TEA (IRE) 9-10-01 Donald McCain Jnr
54 MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-10-01 Nick Williams
55 COMPANERO (IRE) 9-10-00 Johnson Howard Johnson
56 IRON MAN (FR) 8-10-00Peter Bowen
57 MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-10-00 Noel Meade IRE
58 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-10-00 Bob Buckler
59 POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-10-00 Willie Mullins IRE
60 BAGAN (FR) 10-9-13 Martin Todhunter
61 BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies
62 BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-13 Andrew Turnell
63 DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-13 Paul Nolan IRE
64 FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-13 VenetiaWilliams
65 PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-13 Tony MartinIRE
66 IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-12 Roy Wilson IRE
67 KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-12 Pie Mark Bradstock
68 NADOVER (FR) 8-9-12 Charlie Mann
69 PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-12 Richard Phillips
70 SEYMOUR WELD 9-9-12 Charles Pogson
71 NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-11 Ferdy Murphy
72 TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-11 Philip Hobbs
73 OODACHEE 10-9-09 Charlie Swan IRE
74 KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-08 Tom Taaffe IRE
75 DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-07 Tony Martin IRE
76 LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-07 David Pipe
77 OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-07 Philip Hobbs
78 PUNTAL (FR) 13-9-07 David Pipe
79 WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-07 Carl Llewellyn
80 YOU’RE SPECIAL (USA) 12-9-06 Ferdy Murphy
81 ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-05 VenetiaWilliams
82 MILAN DEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-05 David Pipe
83 SANDHURST(IRE) 9-9-02 Edgar Byrne IRE
84 LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-9-02 Colin Tizzard
85 LYSANDER (GER) 10-9-02 Ian Williams
86 MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-9-02 Alan Brown
87 PASS ME BY 10-8-13 Suzy Smith
88 MONT MISERE (FR) 13-8-12 Paul Murphy
#189
March 18th, 2009 13:56
Additional withdrawals – is everyone aware of these.
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-10 David Pipe
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-13 Charlie Swan IRE
BALLYFITZ 9-10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies
OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-08 Paul Nicholls
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-02 J Enda Bolger IRE
PIRAYA (FR) 6-10-10 David Pipe
LOTHIAN FALCON 10-9-09 Peter Maddison
OULART 10-9-09 Dessie Hughes IRE
HOOPY (IRE) 7-9-08 Gordon Elliott IRE
#190
March 18th, 2009 13:57
Well done you ‘lil rascal
#191
March 18th, 2009 13:58
Advance notice that KILBEGGAN BLADE is topping my list at the moment (work still to do tonight). Reassuring words from the Sporting Life site.
Tom George is looking forward to running Kilbeggan Blade, winner of three of his four starts this season.
“I see that Kilbeggan Blade is now set to carry 10st 4lb and it looks like we will definitely get into the National,” said George.
“The race has been the plan since he won his second London National (at Sandown) in December.
“That was his only start over fences this term and we not only did this to protect his mark, but also because he seems to run better over fences after a spin over hurdles.
“His two victories at Sandown came on the back of hurdle appearances and he really enjoys a bit of a change.
“His run at Warwick should have put him just right for Aintree and it was a matter of getting a run into him rather than expecting him to win.
“He’s only had four starts all season and he’ll be going into the National a fresh horse which is the key to him.”
#192
March 18th, 2009 13:59
Hehe – thanks Showlad!
#193
March 18th, 2009 14:06
Ardaghey was the bottom runner last year and he was 54th in the list at the 2nd declaration stage. However, there were 115 left in at this stage last year and so more opportunity for more horses to drop out
If you’ve backed Character or Brooklyn, I think they should be fine for a run, as will the rest of the 10’3 brigade in all probability. If you’ve backed something below that then I would be nervous
#194
March 18th, 2009 14:10
GRAND NATIONAL TOP6 TIPS LEAGUE STAGE 2:
NOW OPEN!!!!
Okay Guys and Gals the next forfeit stage has now been posted up and the next stage of our Top 6 Tips Grand National League is now open!
Newcomers: You rate your TOP 6 horses for the big one and award them points as follows:
Your top horse – 6 points awarded, right down to down to your 6th choice – 1 point awarded.
You adjust the table adding in your points and then post up the newly adjusted table (along with your Top 6 selections for us all to see).
The table is re-set to zero from today (all horses have ZERO points), so all of us will have to adjust and add their points awarded into the overall table in the usual way, except of course the very first ‘expert’ to go today -as they will be kicking off with the first set of points on the new table.
At the end of this Stage 2 table (Closes midnight 29th March) I will analyse the changes in comparison to the Stage 1 table and the final table, Stage 3, will open on March 31st (following 5/6 confirmation stage).
Okay me Heartys who’s gonna post up the Virgin Top 6 Tips to kick off the new Table…
#195
March 18th, 2009 14:13
The Top 70 listed at the outset are usually sfae to get in. The 70th horse on the original list was Arteea, who is sitting now at 48th position, so 48th to 41st should safely make it through – bringing in the following:
41 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-04 Tom George
42 HOT WELD 10-10-04 Ferdy Murphy
43 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-03 John Quinn
44 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-03 Mal Jefferson
45 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
46 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
47 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-10-03 Tom Taaffe IRE
48 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-02 David Pipe
#196
March 18th, 2009 14:47
1. Rambling Minister
2. Kilbeggan Blade
3. Character Building
4. Darkness
5. State of Play
6. War of Attrition
#197
March 18th, 2009 16:00
Can’t have KB due to lack of form in Class 1 chases.
My top 6 as it stands :-
1. Ramling Minster
2. State of Play
3. Character Building
4. Butler’s Cabin (not backed yet)
5. Black Apalachi
6. Darkness (cover bet only)
#198
March 18th, 2009 16:07
My Bets are looking like:
1. Rambling Minster
2. Character Building
3. Kilbeggan Blade
4. Irish Invader / Cornish Sett
struggle to see the winner coming from anyone other than my top 3 with the way the weights are looking.. may have another look at southern vic..
#199
March 18th, 2009 17:49
My top 6 remain almost the same as before, though I reluctantly have to add in Character Building. The weights going up sees Black Apalachi jettisoned.
1. Rambling Minster (backed heavily)
2. State of Play (backed)
3. Kilbeggan Blade (backed)
4. Southern Vic (backed)
5. Character Building (will back as a saver)
6. Darkness (saver)
#200
March 18th, 2009 18:14
I’ll combine the above 2 top 6s along with mine…
1. Rambo
2. Character Building
3. State of Play
4. My Will
5. Himalayan Trail
6. Butler’s Cabin
Rambo 18
State of Play 14
Character Building 11
Butler’s Cabin 4
Kilbeggan Blade 4
My Will 3
Southern Vic 3
Black Apalachi 2
Darkness 2
Himalayan Trail 2
#201
March 18th, 2009 18:44
I’am not sue I can get the Black Book asssmenst up tonight (but will try)igf not it will be up tomorrow as early as possible. Internet Cafe was not onlinethis aftrenoon nera the bookies and I spent all afternon making loads of dosh and then losing some still waiting for the 7.20 at Kempton with Dunes Queen to win with some saver on Peninsuler War.
I can tell you now that Rambling Minster is the oustanding bet for the 2009 GN but there is a surprise for the very short list – all will be revealed later.
Please not that SOP is likely to be weighted out of any winning chance with a 7lb or more likely 8lbs rise even if he is a great horse and one I had to have a very big saver on (it would be foolish to just repost the old scores – lets completly reassess).
#202
March 18th, 2009 18:53
gutted to hear Garde Champetre doesn’t run, only had my old skool few quid e/w on, really in on Rambo! but just thought it would run well (esp. after cheltenham!) and always like to see the 3 1/2mile mark when the non stayers fall away and its 3 of mine against the 3 or so I didn’t back!!! Garde woulda been thereabouts, as we collectively assessed 3rd on top6….oh well.
#203
March 18th, 2009 19:13
rambling minster 6
Character building 5
State of play 4
darkness 3
brooklyn brownie 2
southern vic 1
Rambo 24
State of Play 18
Character Building 16
darkness 5
Butler’s Cabin 4
Kilbeggan Blade 4
Southern Vic 4
my will 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
#204
March 18th, 2009 19:22
Southern Vic 6
Rambling Minster 5
Character Building 4
State of Play 3
Darkness 2
Kilbeggan Blade 1
Rambo 29
State of Play 21
Character Building 20
darkness 7
Butler’s Cabin 4
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Southern Vic 10
my will 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
#205
March 18th, 2009 19:24
Rambo 29
State of Play 21
Character Building 20
Southern Vic 10
darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Butler’s Cabin 4
my will 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
#206
March 18th, 2009 19:26
Rambling Minsyer 6
Character Building 5
Stae of Play 4
Comply or Die 3
Butlers Cabin 2
Irish Invader 1
Rambo 30
State of Play 22
Character Building 21
darkness 5
Butler’s Cabin 6
Kilbeggan Blade 4
Southern Vic 4
my will 3
Comply or Die 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
Irish Invader 1
Not sure if Brooklyn Brownie is to run, think he might be heading for another race at Aintree
#207
March 18th, 2009 19:31
TC Brooklyn is a defo for GN – he is only entered in other race too, in case he misses cut.
#208
March 18th, 2009 19:55
I’ll correct that silver Birch got in before me
Rambo 35
State of Play 25
Character Building 25
Southern Vic 10
darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Butler’s Cabin 6
my will 3
Comply or Die 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
Irish Invader 1
#209
March 18th, 2009 20:10
Rambo – 6
Butler’s Cabin – 5
State of Play – 4
Southern Vic – 3
Brooklyn Brownie – 2
Kilbeggan Blade – 1
New totals:
Rambo 41
State of Play 29
Character Building 25
Southern Vic 13
Butler’s Cabin 11
darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Brooklyn brownie 4
my will 3
Comply or Die 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Irish Invader 1
#210
March 18th, 2009 20:18
From RP:
RUBY WALSH plans to delay a decision on his John Smith’s Grand National mount until much nearer the race – but a betting move on Wednesday suggested that the jockey could optto keep it in the family at Aintree next month.
Walsh, who set a new Cheltenham Festival record when riding seven winners at last week’s meeting, has been expected to partner Grand National favourite My Will or Paul Nicholls-trained stablemate Big Fella Thanks.
However, Skybet, who believe Walsh is 10-11 to select My Will and 11-8 to opt for Big Fella Thanks, have halved the odds about Walsh instead preferring the claims of his father Ted’s Aintree hopeful Southern Vic, now a 20-1 shot from 25-1 with the firm to triumph.”
I hope he opts for Southern Vic. Would be a massive +.
#211
March 18th, 2009 21:57
Himalayan Trail back on my radar – I know the form this season is poor but should Barry Geraghty ride I will have to back this one – he is a class act round Aintree and the horse might rekindle his form in the Spring (Geraghty down to ride Golden Flight according to Henderson but not definite)
Rambo – 6
State Of Play – 5
Southern Vic – 4
Himalayan Trail – 3
Black Apalachi – 2
Irish Invader – 1
New totals:
Rambo 47
State of Play 34
Character Building 25
Southern Vic 17
Butler’s Cabin 11
Darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Himalayan Trail 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
#212
March 18th, 2009 22:41
Ok here its is. Systemsman’s final “Black Book” ratings for the GN short list.
All 28 listed in order of price on Oddschecker.con were assessed We are down to a short list of EIGHT but really SIX srong contenders.
Its a basic trends system that is very accurate after the last prep runs and sorts the wheat from the chaff.
Ratings:
Three stars are needed for the serious short list (+ and – also possible)
A – also fits Systemsman pre-christmas GN winners trends
B – also fits Stephens GN winners profile (1/2/3 Scots Nat, Welsh Nat etc etc).
So the highest possible marks are *** (3 stars – with a possible+)plus A and or B
Results – the 3 star short list and the winner of the GN 2009 (in the full 3 star list that is):
One horse stands out clar and sharp – get on!
OR 137 to 144 and Class1 chase winner listed first:
1. Rambling Minster *** A B
2. Darkness *** B
Note: 3 stars only if 33/1 and under on the day (very, very likely). I did say there was a surpise and this is it – Darkness 2nd best if 33/1 or less. I suggest you invest now as 33/1 or under very likely (currently 33/1-40/1[x3].
3. Cornish Sett *** B
Note: 3 stars only if 33/1 or less on the day (curently 40-50/1[x5]. I suggest we wait and see as this one needs price drop. Placed last year will put many of.
4. Parsons Legacy *** A B
Note. 3 stars only if 33/1 or less on the day (curently 33/1 – 40/1{x7). Will he even run? Another wait and see. Needs price drop and we need to know he is running this year.
Or 137 to 144 Class 2 Chase winners.
5. Kilbeggan Blade *** A B
Nore: Pobably a better bet than CS or PL at this stage and in my mind should be third in order.
6. Character Building *** B
Best above OR 144:
7. State of Play *** B
Note: best if 11.01 or less (11.02 possible)
8. Black Apalachi *** A B
Not: Likley to have far too much weight (11.04 or 11.05)
So only EIGHT runners score 3 stars
3 against the field at this stage – back all three:
1. Rambling Minster (16/1 still available!!)
2. Darkness
2. Kilbeggan Blade
Others scored two stars or less or were eliminated for very good resons (above 11.05 in weight, PU twice this season etc).
This result has surprisd me as much as you as I expected to have CB clear second but it only confirms my own serous doubts about CB being quite good enougth to win (but could be placed). However each of the eight has a chance of winning accordng to the 3 star rating.
Now what do you think??? There is little more I can do other than watch the price profile which I will report on from time to time (the eve of the GN and again the morning of the GN is best).
#213
March 18th, 2009 22:47
Looked again at My Will
This must be the bookies’ favourite horse
Only wins in small fields but always seems to run a nice race and leaves the impression that there is more to come next time
His only win in a double-figure field was a joke of a race where half the field jumped like novices and made terrible mistakes
Flatters to deceive
Come on Ruby – keep it in the family son
#214
March 18th, 2009 22:50
Correction
Change:
“2. Darkness *** B (?)”
Note: The B for Stephens GN winners profile was missed by 1f (2×3 wins at 3miles including one at 28f. Darknesss won at 27f so I gave it the benefit of the doubt – have now added the (?). Technically he does not qualify for the “B”. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance chase however and its my gut feeling he has neen laid out for the GN 2009 but can he beat Rambo?
Change:
“7. State of Play ***(+) B”
#215
March 18th, 2009 22:54
Cornish sett is missing from your lists. What is wrong with you?!
#216
March 18th, 2009 22:59
Systemsman,
Excellent stuff and i’m sure we’ll all be glad that Rambo came out top of the pile!!
My comments for what they’re worth: The form-book suggests that Darkness may not enjoy the Grand National experience as he has been dire in very big fields. I can’t back him because of that. I know he has had a wind op but history shows that there’s not much money to be made by backing also-rans from previous years so I can’t have Cornish Sett either. Black Apalachi probably requires testing ground to be at his best and Aintree issued a report today saying that the going is on the slow side of good. The long range forecast suggests that it’s going to be largely dry over the next few weeks so he probably won’t get his ground.
So of your list I would avoid those three and focus on Rambo, State Of Play and Parsons Legacy I’ve backed the first two but will only back Parsons Legacy once it’s NRNB.
#217
March 18th, 2009 23:01
Systemsman
“Laid out for the GN 2009″
Surely the following horses have been too:
Cloudy Lane
Snowy Morning
Comply Or Die
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
King Johns Castle
My Will
State Of Play
Silver Birch
Cornish Sett
Irish Invader
Rambling Minster
Southern Vic
Hot Weld
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Character Building
Himalayan Trail?
#218
March 18th, 2009 23:31
My current top 6. Cornish sett rates highly for me as it fits the stats and am not bothered about it finishing down the field last year. Horse had breathing problem and to me if Hedgehunter hadnt fallen right near the end the year before it won he would have broken this stat.
Rambling Minster 6
Cornish Sett 5
Character Building 4
State of Play 3
Darkness 2
Parsons Legacy 2
New totals:
Rambo 53
State of Play 37
Character Building 29
Southern Vic 17
Butler’s Cabin 11
Darkness 9
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Himalayan Trail 5
Cornish Sett 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
Parsons Legacy 2
#219
March 18th, 2009 23:44
very interesting, been busy and my thoughts are all over the place with regard to
“winner if not Rambo”
weights rise of 7/8lb makes things clearer.. yet I feel more confused about these similarly low weighters in terms of their consistancy, jumping ability and stamina.
Getting down to it now, discussing jockeys, interesting points earlier here about CBs jockey maybe not necessarily getting the right tune out of the horse?! another reason to hold out on final bets!
Suprises on your list systems, great work
I only see Rambo winning in that really, more worried (slightly), about SV which suprises me as not a fan, but blinkers!+ Ruby = maybe… Brooklyn Brownie looks like the one I shoulda bet on earlier now best 40s. Still can’t see past Rambo
#220
March 18th, 2009 23:47
Further correction (I was rushing it out a bit):
“Change:
“2. Darkness *** A B (?)”
Pablo
I never suggested other horses were not laid out for the GN just that Darkness who I make 2nd best was. Up untill recently he hardly got a serious mention by most.
#221
March 19th, 2009 00:47
Herewith my top 6 at this stage:
RAMBLING MINSTER – 6
STATE OF PLAY – 5
CHARACTER BUILDING – 4
DARKNESS – 3
PARSONS LEGACY – 2
SOUTHERN VIC – 1
New totals:
Rambo 53
State of Play 39
Character Building 29
Southern Vic 18
Butler’s Cabin 11
Darkness 10
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Himalayan Trail 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#222
March 19th, 2009 00:59
My list has changed quite a lot. Here you go:
KILBEGGAN BLADE – 6 POINTS
RAMBLING MINSTER – 5 POINTS
BUTLER’S CABIN – 4 POINTS
DARKNESS – 3 POINTS
SOUTHERN VIC – 2 POINTS
CHARACTER BUILDING – 1 POINTS
New totals:
Rambo 58
State of Play 39
Character Building 30
Southern Vic 20
Butler’s Cabin 15
Darkness 13
Kilbeggan Blade 12
Himalayan Trail 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#223
March 19th, 2009 03:27
Systemsman,
What do I think.. Apart from Rambling Minster, I think you are over worked and have gone mad. Darkness,Cornish,Parsons,State O.P. and forget the last one.
Remember last year, you and wako insisted 4 prep runs at least.
Won a chase with 13 runners or more and lets write off any horse that finished in the GN. Those 3 rules gave us a list of 5 which included COD.
Now you also want to write off the 49 day rule for 2 horses with only 2 prep runs, that haven’t run in 99 & 113 days and are about to run in the race of their lives. One of which P.U. in his last race.
I don’t know what to say. I don’t have a crystal ball, so maybe your spot on but I thought we worked with the stats, instead of predicting when they would bite us in the ass.
#224
March 19th, 2009 06:57
My top 6 are…
Rambling Minster 6
Character Building 5
State Of Play 4
Brooklyn Brownie 3
Kilbeggan Blade 2
Southern Vic 1
New totals:
Rambo 64
State of Play 43
Character Building 35
Southern Vic 21
Butler’s Cabin 15
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Brooklyn Brownie 7
Himalayan Trail 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#225
March 19th, 2009 08:18
Just a quick question given Southern Vic’s 4th place in the league table. Are we sure he’ll run if the going’s good?
Another point – CB’s OR is now 145 following his Cheltenham win.
#226
March 19th, 2009 09:09
My top 6:
Rambling Minster 6
Character Building 5
Southern Vic 4
Himalayan Trail 3
Butler’s Cabin 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
New totals:
Rambo 70
State of Play 43
Character Building 40
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Brooklyn Brownie 8
Himalayan Trail 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#227
March 19th, 2009 09:12
Whoops didn’t fully update totals, these are correct:
New totals:
Rambo 70
State of Play 43
Character Building 40
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Brooklyn Brownie 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#228
March 19th, 2009 09:21
My poorold Cornish Sett went missing again.
New totals:
Rambo 70
State of Play 43
Character Building 40
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Brooklyn Brownie 8
Cornish Sett 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#229
March 19th, 2009 09:29
Doesn’t meet lots of trends but beware of writing off Irish Invader as a non-stayer
This one has Busted as its damsire and jumps very well
Busted is also the Dad of Bustino – the damsire of Russian Trigger who stays all day
Not saying it’ll win but could be an Irish springer in the market over the next couple of weeks with Snowy Morning and possibly Black Apalachi and Hear The Echo having too much weight now
#230
March 19th, 2009 09:38
It’s happened again. Points for Cornish Sett have disappeared! This wouldn’t have happened on Magpie with Jenny Handley.
6-Cornish Sett
5-Rambling Minster
4-Character Building
3-Brooklyn Brownie
2-State Of Play
1-L’Ami
I think any of the top 3 can win on the trends/GN winner profile. Brooklyn for a place could be the one to slightly alter things, hasn’t had a 17k win. For me State Of Play is also running for a place – and I hope it gets one too because I backed it at 33/1 – as no GN winner, I think since the second world war, has had such a long break, since it’s last run.
scoreboard;
Rambling Minster 69
State of Play 45
Character Building 39
Southern Vic 21
Butler’s Cabin 15
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Cornish Sett 11
Brooklyn Brownie 10
Himalayan Trail 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
L’Ami 1
#231
March 19th, 2009 09:40
I think in the last 10 yrs+ the highest recorded RPR of a GN winner is 170. Would it be safe then to rule out all horses with an RPR 170+???? Would mean scratching quite a few if so.
#232
March 19th, 2009 09:42
New Scoreboard;
Rambling Minster 75
State of Play 45
Character Building 44
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Cornish Sett 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
L’Ami 1
#233
March 19th, 2009 10:07
Prices dropping across the board now!
Looks like the build up to the race is gathering pace.
#234
March 19th, 2009 10:30
Stan James had My Will at 8-1 the other day – madness – not much value around now – apart from Rambo at 16′s – tempted to have some more as I’m pretty sure he will be down to nearer 10′s on the day – Whilst Black Apalachi may now have too much weight, I am convinced that he may be one of the best horses to lay in running -backed him early at 20-1 – he led all the way round in the Becher and jumped well – feel he will be standing well after the first circuit and will probably trade short in running – he is a definite front runner – this is always and advantage in the big race as you generall stay out of trouble (falling, refuding horses etc) – that is a slight worry for Rambo – I reckon he will come from off the pace and may be hampered by other horses – hopefully the boy Reveley will give him a COD-Murphy ride around the outside – much less trouble than travelling around the inner
#235
March 19th, 2009 10:44
Stumbled across this blog whilst surfing for the GN weights – great work everyone !!
I always back 2 in the big race – we all know so much can happen / go wrong if you just lump on only one – and am now very happy that a split stake each way punt on BC & CB is the way to go – it also helps that they’re roughly the same price.
Reasons ? (here goes) : have slowly whittled the field down to 4 and it’s with a heavy heart that I’m discarding the 2 other strong trends horses – SOP & Rambo.
Firstly SOP……as a Hennessy winner with previous Aintree form he was the one for me initially. BUT. When Snoopy comes out he’ll be left on 11-1. Is he a potential Hedgehunter ? (one of the best winners of the race I ever saw and backed his performance up with a superb 2nd in the Gold Cup a year on). Sadly, I think not. Closer inspection of his Hennessy form leaves me with the impression that it was a fairly weak race…..as, arguably, was this year’s Charlie Hall. Yes he’s been deliberately kept fresh but when was the last time a horse overcame such an absence to gain glory at Aintree ?…..now if he were trained by Charlie E of course……!!
Now on to Rambo – a COMBINATION of all the stats point to him as THE ONE…..but several things put me off. 1) I feel he may have peaked too early (not many have triumphed in April off the back of back to back wins – who was the last ?…..help please fellas) 2)No winner of the RedSquare has every gone on to win the GN (no reason I can see why this should be……but a stat all the same) and 3) I can’t be placing an 11YO Aintree virgin in front of 2 9YOs with equally persuasive profiles – the last 2 “vets” to triumph were the vastly experienced Amberleigh House and Red Marauder !! – nuff said about that particular trendbuster (the race shouldn’t have even been run in my opinion – it was only cos it was the National……and has nothing to do with the fact that I backed him the year before !!)
And so to the bet / recommendations. Incidentally I had neither BC or CB down initially – usually a good sign for me ! – as I was purely focused on the “mustn’t back a Cheltenham horse at Aintree / must back one that’s been laid out”. I do agree that, overall – and certainly, recently – it’s better to favour this type of build up……but it should NEVER be the b-all and end-all.
BC – Firstly then, the 2 negatives (3 if you include McCoy in the National as a negative – and you shouldn’t be reading this if you do – he is the KING) He ran at Cheltenham and he’s French Bred. Go on admit it – they’re the only reasons aren’t they ??
On to the positives then : proven in large field handicaps, a touch of class (won Irish National), proven stamina (won the NH Chase), running into form / a “spring” horse, proven over the National fences (well…..21 of them anyway !!) and a fairly good/knowledgeable owner, trainer, jockey combination. IF he stands up I cannot see him being out of the frame.
CB – Negatives ? – Ran (and won !! – worse statistically, far, far worse) at Cheltenham…….oh – and he’s a grey. As for the comments about the jockey ? – yes I’d love him to be ridden by Ruby or someone but go back through the records and you’ll find some pretty “average” types have triumphed…..i.e. Costello ? – not a problem (not as good as McCoy but you can’t have everything can you……well – not at 14/1 you can’t)
Positives – just watch the Kim Muir again……how many horses win handicaps at Cheltenham like that……ok a few but not many (and certainly not National contenders). I just feel that they’ve finally got him worked out – he’s always had the talent. Allied to this he’s got terrifically consistent form (just twice out of the money – valid reasons both times ?) His form ties in very closely with BC & Rambo and we KNOW he’s in great form – unlike Rambo.
As I’m splitting my stakes equally on the 2 of them I also like the fact that I’ve got one running over the fences for the first time and the other one trying his hand again after falling when going well the year before – therefore “covering” myself against the first timer vs previous experience argument….of which there is no clear leader (or is there ?)
And a final thought…….how many times have we looked at a big race result and subsequently discovered that it was the same 1-2 as in another race / big race…….lots ?…….well I’m just hoping that the race turns out to be the 2007 NH Chase !!
I’ve got a grand in my pocket – £200EW on the both of them (any advice on now or when NRNB comes in would be appreciated) and £200 to be used on the day (probably in combination Exactas & Trifectas)
Thanks again for all the helpful hints guys…..and Good Luck !!
#236
March 19th, 2009 10:46
Just about recovered from the awful Garde withdrawel news,my “Seychelles for the summer” dream is now over,its always the danger with ante-post betting but still a sore one to take at this late stage and one i couldn’t see coming as his price was solid on Betfair
Thats me firmly in the Rambo camp now and his price is dropping.
Hope 16s holds out til payday so i can have another plunge!
#237
March 19th, 2009 10:47
“miinnehoma Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 3:27 AM
Systemsman,
What do I think.. Apart from Rambling Minster, I think you are over worked and have gone mad. Darkness,Cornish,Parsons,State O.P. and forget the last one.
Remember last year, you and wako insisted 4 prep runs at least.
Won a chase with 13 runners or more and lets write off any horse that finished in the GN. Those 3 rules gave us a list of 5 which included COD.”
Reply:
Wrong: I have never used the four prep runs or argued for it. Three is the norm but this year a number of people have made a case for two being possible due to all the bad weather.
The Black Book ratings are a guide for the final short list and have to be used with common sence and other trends as you point out. For what its worth of the eight with three stars I dont fancy SOP, BA due to weight and PL is too big in price and may not run. My own selections in order will be posted next.
So use the lsit of eight and take out any that dont fit your own best trends (that how it was designed to work).
#238
March 19th, 2009 11:07
My top 6 based on yesterdays announcements and performances since weights day;
1) Rambling Minster – 6 points
2) Character Building – 5 points
3) Darkness – 4 points
4) Southern Vic – 3 points
5) Parsons Legacy – 2 points
6) Irish Invader – 1 point
Revised leaderboard;
Rambling Minster 81
Character Building 49
State of Play 45
Southern Vic 28
Butler’s Cabin 17
Darkness 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Cornish Sett 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
parsons legacy 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#239
March 19th, 2009 11:17
Way, way back on the old thread I posted about horses who were ‘well in’ at the weights and those who had been clobbered by the handicapper. Given that most have had their final prep run by now, I thought it might be useful to update the current position based on the new ORs from yesterday vs GN OR:
Horses well in:
Darkness 8 lbs
My Will 8 lbs
Rambling Minster 6 lbs
Character Building 5 lbs
Roll Along 5 lbs
Snoopy Loopy 4 lbs
Irish Invader 2 lbs
Offshore Account 2 lbs
Southern Vic 1 lb
Big Fella Thanks 1 lb
Horses clobbered:
Butlers Cabin 13 lbs
Chelsea HArbour 8 lbs
Hear The Echo 8 lbs
Priests Leap 7 lbs
Stan 6 lbs
Hot Weld 6 lbs
Tumbling Dice 6 lbs
Reveillez 4 lbs
Golden Flight 4 lbs
L’ami 4 lbs
Horses carrying between 1-3 lbs more than current mark; Snowy Morning, Ollie Magern, Comply or Die, Mon Mome, Hobbs Hill, Fundamentalist, Battlecry, Fleet Street, Can’t Buy Time, Always Waining, Himalayan Trail.
Please Note: This analysis only covers the top 47 horses in the revised list of 88.
#240
March 19th, 2009 11:23
Get a grip miinnehoma and check your facts. I have now just spent ten minutes rechecking all eight listed in the “Black Book” short list and I see no problem at all.
3 prep runs (we never ever used 4!!)
RM
DARK
KB
CS
CB
SOP
BA
PL
So I make that 8 form 8!
Won a Cahse with 13 runnners or more:
RM
KB
CB
SOP
BA
PL
Darkness has been placed twice in races with 13 runners or more (3/15 and 3/16) and won with 12 so gets the benefit of the doubt.
So I make that 7 from 8 and 8 from 8 if we include Darkness.
Placed in GN
Cornish Sett.
Yes and very good reasons to consider this one exception for the short list. Meets almost all the main trends. Won Class 1 chase this season and 2nd in the Welsh Nat this season – you could not ask for more and if he was not placed last year would be in the top three of everybodys list (many still rate him highly).
I have already stated I dont trust PS to run (too high in price)but he does meet all rends and was also supported by many (and me) last year.
So Mini who needs the tablets now?
#241
March 19th, 2009 11:28
My list:
1. Rambling Minster – 6pts
2. Darkness – 5pts
3. Kilbeggan Blade – 4pts
4. Character Building – 3pts
5. Cronish Sett – 2pts
6. Parsons Legacy – 1pts
Revised leaderboard:
Rambling Minster 87
Character Building 52
State of Play 45
Southern Vic 28
Darkness 22
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 18
Cornish Sett 13
Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
Parsons legacy 5
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#242
March 19th, 2009 11:32
My top 6 (I am scoring them as in if the GN was run today therefore i am only looking at the current top 40 as these at the moment are the only ones guaranteed a race)
1) Rambling Minster – 6 points
2) State of Play – 5 points
3) Darkness – 4 points
4) Parsons Legacy – 3 points
5) Southern Vic – 2 points
6) Cornish Sett – 1 point
Revised leaderboard;
Rambling Minster 87
State of Play 50
Character Building 49
Southern Vic 30
Darkness 21
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Cornish Sett 12
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Parsons Legacy 7
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#243
March 19th, 2009 11:36
Systemsman beat me to it so with both scores included the Revised leaderboard is:
Rambling Minster 93
Character Building 52
State of Play 50
Southern Vic 30
Darkness 26
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 18
Cornish Sett 14
Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
Parsons legacy 8
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#244
March 19th, 2009 11:49
Just a point on Cornish Sett. I know some people are excluding him as he ran down the field in last years race. But he was running really well until weakening 2 out and he just seemed to run out of puff.
He has had a wind operation since and this has shown an improved horse I think.
So he may well not run out of puff at the business end this year.
So I think this is a good reason to forgive that stat and included Cornish Sett on your short lists.
#245
March 19th, 2009 11:53
“Slim Pickings (beaten 21 1/2 L), who travelled strongly again off his 7lb higher mark but finished tired in fourth and DIDN’T GET HOME THIS TIME, and Bewleys Berry (beaten 29 1/2 L), who has a great record round here but was FOUND WANTING FOR STAMINA in the end”
“Cloudy Lane (beaten 32 1/2 L)…NEVER really looked like being a major player”
“Cornish Sett(beaten 62L)…ran really well until WEAKENING over the last few fences”
Given that Cornish Sett had his wind operation before last year’s National how will he win this year? Am I missing something?
#246
March 19th, 2009 12:01
Found this quote from Nicholls re Cornish Sett after Wincanton race
“He was struggling with his breathing last season, ” Nicholls said. “I gave him an operation before the National [in which he finish 12th] and maybe that has just helped him a bit. Ruby thought he might have picked the wrong one, but I am pleased for Nick as he has done a lot of work on him.”
#247
March 19th, 2009 12:06
Boyles rep on At the Races says Rambo their biggest loser followed by BC.
#248
March 19th, 2009 12:07
Cornish Sett
Why he should be put out to grass: Operation to cure wind problems since his last race in December may bring improvement, but needs to. Best qualification is that he is related to two National winners. Odds: 150-1
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/whos-hot-and-whos-not-in-todays-big-race-804957.html
#249
March 19th, 2009 12:25
1 – Rambling Minster – 6 Pts
2 – Butlers Cabin – 5
3 – State of Play – 4
4 – Cornish Sett -3
5 – Character Building – 2
6 – Parsons Legacy – 1
Making the table;
1st Rambling Minster 99
=2nd Character Building 54
=2nd State of Play 54
4th Southern Vic 30
5th Darkness 26
Butler’s Cabin 22
Kilbeggan Blade 18
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Parsons legacy 9
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#250
March 19th, 2009 12:30
Why are people uptight about Cornish Sett? I you don’t fancy him, don’t bet on him. Won Badger Ales and 2nd Welsh GN this season. Couldn’t have done that with a head start last season.
Why did Rag Trade finish tenth/last in 75, get a hike of 10lbs and then win Welsh National and GN, the only horse to beat Red Rum at Aintree on his favoured favoured good ground, in 76? Why did Little Polveir come 9/17 in 86, fall in 87, ur in 88 and then win relatively easily in 89?
#251
March 19th, 2009 12:33
Hi
Darkness should be on 28 – 2 higher. Performance Factor only added 1 even though he scored him 3 points – quite a way back up the table, but not been allowing me to leave any messages for a few days :@
Ells
1
#252
March 19th, 2009 12:37
Well after taking a massive hit due to Garde Champetre im now looking to find a suitable replacement and after looking through the list over and over again i just cant see past Rambo and SoP.
I know people are championing Character Building but the way i look at it is that horses that win the national are normally in the frame (stats / trends wise) well before there final prep runs and the final prep run just confirms what we already know about the horse i.e. Rambo, CoD last year, SilverBirch etc.
Character Building needing that win to even be considered by many, myself included so on that basis i have seen sense (or not as the case may be) and decided against Character Building and am now going back to the list of horses just after the weights were announced and looking at the form of horses on that list since then to find a suitable replacement for Garde Champetre.
#253
March 19th, 2009 12:40
I know people are championing Character Building but the way i look at it is that horses that win the national are normally in the frame (stats / trends wise) well before there final prep runs and the final prep run just confirms what we already know about the horse i.e. Rambo, CoD last year, SilverBirch etc.
Sorry, I dont agree. Comply or Die was by no means in the frame before his Eider run, and Rambling Minster, whilst being mentioned by a few on here, had not run well enough at C1 level to convince most that he could actually win. He was 20/1 for his last race remember…
Character Building met the stats before that race, I think he did anyway. I am more put off by his attitude, or lack of fight more accurately, in a tight finish.
#254
March 19th, 2009 12:44
like Denman and people!!! maybe it takes a while to get the benefits from an operation, so the fact that Cornish had his wind op b4 last years GN is excusable. He is a better horse now and deserves consideration, think there may be a couple better on the day but thats racing, still going to be thereabouts, still on my list which I’ll get round to soon, only have enough time at moment to get up to date with all your posts!!!
What does worry me tho is him going back out to 50s again and way out on betfair, has he had a setback or are all his fans here?!
#255
March 19th, 2009 13:01
Daniel Edwards Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 12:40 PM
I know people are championing Character Building but the way i look at it is that horses that win the national are normally in the frame (stats / trends wise) well before there final prep runs and the final prep run just confirms what we already know about the horse i.e. Rambo, CoD last year, SilverBirch etc.
Sorry, I dont agree. Comply or Die was by no means in the frame before his Eider run, and Rambling Minster, whilst being mentioned by a few on here, had not run well enough at C1 level to convince most that he could actually win. He was 20/1 for his last race remember…
Character Building met the stats before that race, I think he did anyway. I am more put off by his attitude, or lack of fight more accurately, in a tight finish.
Comply or Die last year and Rambling Minster this year (albeit missed off Systemsman early list as an oversight) had met certain trends of other winners prior to there last race before the national.
Character Building met the trends with his last race prior to the cheltenham so the race at cheltenham does not in my opinion reinforce how good a horse he is.
At the end of the day im just explaining as to why i wont be backing him and im not trying to put anyone off backing him or criticising people that already have.
#256
March 19th, 2009 13:06
At the end of the day im just explaining as to why i wont be backing him and im not trying to put anyone off backing him or criticising people that already have.
Me too!
#257
March 19th, 2009 13:07
As long as you get to the winner, that’s the important thing. But I find it interesting that people are disregarding certain trends to suit some horses by saying you should take each horse on it’s merit which in many ways I think is a fair point and good advice. Then they lump a load of horses together by saying unplaced horses have a poor record!
Days since last run; 16-52 days 36/36 (two winners in this period were previously unplaced)
Now sit back and watch State Of Play/Parsons/War Of Attrition bolt up ….!
#258
March 19th, 2009 13:21
Saw the final three/four fences of Character’s win at Cheltenham for the first time today. I thought he won easily. After his second behind Butlers Cabin in 07 at 33f at Cheltenham I bet his connections hope that the GN will be moved to Prestbury Park.
I watched Butlers performance in same recent race at Cheltenham with interest. And you know what, I think he he ran well at a distance obviously too short for him, and with luck in running might go close at Aintree. 9 yr old CB’s still looks like a jaunty youngster but Butlers, who I know is also a 9yr old but may be due to past exertions, looks like an older horse, say an 11 yr old who needs four miles just to get going. And I haven’t backed him!
#259
March 19th, 2009 13:25
As the race nears the tension is obvious on the blog
Just to throw my little bit in the ring if i may……
We all know the stats and facts by now and at the end of the day it comes down to personal preference, come 4th April some would have got it right, and some not.
Personally i apply trends, facts, my own oppinion, then more importantly the hard core form facts, there is no better guide than your eyes.
Lets take Character building for instance…..sure his win in the Kim Muir did indeed see him meet all trends(or there abouts) but to watch the race he was on the bridle 2 from home carrying top weight and beat the likes of Butlers cabin giving him 4 lb in the process, now when i watch this race again i can see that he is a real contender based on this race and the style of his win.
Now if we go onto Butlers cabin who lets not forget is a 134 rated chaser going of 147 in the national(he is hardly thrown in) with a 5 lb (could be as much as 7or8 lb on the day)weight rise, and will be giving for the pleasure of his beating Character building 7 lb for his 4 lb beating so in theory he has to turn around 11 lb with form figures this season of 8-0-8-5.
So no amount of trends Butlers might meet or the fact that he was running well last year, before he fell can convince me that he will finish in front of Character building…..logically it is just not feasible.
So my advice would be to go back to basics and let your eyes be the untimate guide.
#260
March 19th, 2009 13:27
The days since last run stat is very strong crisp 73 – I’m just struggling to logically see why a horse that goes best fresh can’t win a National?
#261
March 19th, 2009 13:46
Character Building reminds me of that old hurdler who whenever he hit the front would pull himself up and so the jock was forced to keep him on the bridle right until the dying strides and because of it could never time the run quite right.
Character Building won on the bridle at Cheltenham. I dont think he would have won if he was off the bridle.
I cant see him running the entire GN on the bridle.
Therefore I cant see him winning the GN.
#262
March 19th, 2009 14:09
I cant see him running the entire GN on the bridle.
Breed by Roselier, high cruising speed, I can. Well upto the Elbow anyway when they’re all knackered and with my lumpy EW bet on him I’ll be happy even if he is nudged out in a battle. That bet was placed 11 months ago though so the value on that has long since gone, hard to recommend him as value at the current 14/1 prices available.
#263
March 19th, 2009 14:13
Plus all Character Building’s wins have come on undulating courses Daniel.
#264
March 19th, 2009 14:14
To think that CB was trading at around 90 on betfair shortly before Cheltenham – hope some of you guys had a bit of that.
#265
March 19th, 2009 14:23
I thought horses that ran in the Cheltenham Festival were a ‘no go’ when considering potential winners for the GN???
My two are: Rambo, Killbeggin Blade with a third yet to be decided. Surely with 19 horses (at the mo) running on 11st or close to the 11st mark some of these need to be considered??? Last year I think only a couple of horses carried 11st+ with Comply just above the 11st mark.
#266
March 19th, 2009 14:26
Cornish Sett hard to fancy for me because P last time out, doesn’t look well-handicapped and didn’t get home last year
Character Building hard to fancy for me because his two best performances have come in Class 2 Amateur events, in some races he has declined the battle, has been beaten twice by Rambling Minster this season, for a so-called out-and-out stayer he has yet to win over more than 26f and he doesn’t look as well-handicapped as others (compared with best RPR)
#267
March 19th, 2009 14:28
I should also say, the 19 horses that are above (my cut off of 10st 12lb)State of Play and above and maybe up to and including Chelsea Habour.
#268
March 19th, 2009 14:29
Cornish Sett beaten 92L not P
#269
March 19th, 2009 15:04
Tony Blair was still popular when Southern Vic last won a race.
#270
March 19th, 2009 15:15
Hi Folks – back after a break and enjoying the new thread. I wanted to comment on the prep races thing that seems to be overlooked this year. Systemsman – last year you definitely were an advocate of minimum 4 prep races. To confirm I’ve dug up (and updated) some of your comments from last year.
……..”Here are the runs/results prior to their GN win for the last ten years from August preceeding the year of their win in April.
2008 1 (race before GN) 2.PU.16 =4 runs
2007 2.4.2.8 = 4
2006 3.4.4.BD.4.8 = 6
2005 1.6.10.4.2.9. = 6
2004 5.PU.2.4.3 = 5
2003 4.6.3.1.3 = 5
2002 7.6.3.3.5.7 = 6
2001 F.2.5.5.4.1 = 6
2000 3.9.4.5.7.8 = 6
1999 1.4.5.13.8.5 = 6
1998 5.6.1.5.5 = 5
So you see every winner for the last ten years has had between 4 and 6 prep races. So allowing for a possible miner change in the trends we should exclude any horse with less than 3 prep races.”
State of Play would not be included & Darkness/Parsons look weak on 3 runs a piece.
#271
March 19th, 2009 15:17
I didn’t realise Tony Blair was ever popular.
#272
March 19th, 2009 15:18
Think Systemsman advised earlier that this year may be different due to the bad weather – possibility of those with 3 prep runs prior to the race running well
#273
March 19th, 2009 15:19
Southern Vic beat Chelsea Harbour and Preists Leap last time out – he’s been running against Class 1 horses at or near level weights and is way better off in the National
He is handicapped to win a race
#274
March 19th, 2009 15:28
Well after going back to basics to search for any other decent value bets (not including Rambo and SoP as i already have moeny on these from earlier in year) the only one that i could consider at this time of putting any money on is Darkness at 40-1.
So at the moment my three against the field are Rambo
State of Play
Darkness
I will add one more at the 5 day dec stage but at the moment i aint a clue who this will be as none are appealling to me.
#275
March 19th, 2009 15:29
Indeed Pablo and let’s not forget that the horse was off the course from January 07 to October 08 so in those 21 months couldn’t have won a race.
#276
March 19th, 2009 16:28
When im considering marginal horses or more accurately ones that are splitting opinion, like Southern Vic appears to be, I like to look back through the form COMPLETELY ignoring any stats.
If we did not know about the stats, can anybody honestly put their hands on their heart and say Southern Vic has any chance? let alone a 20/1 chance? I would be very surprised if anybody could.
He has a history of jumping mistakes,
He has been found wanting at the top level numerous times,
In his only run beyond 25f he didnt complete the course (Becher 2008)
So he doesnt look as though he is good enough, we dont know if he will stay, and there is a fair chance he will not even get round. Ignoring the stats for a moment, do people agree with this or not?
I appreciate he ‘meets the stats’ but there’s a few horses that do each year (See D’argent last year) but ignoring them, I cant see how anybody would want to back him on examing his form.
I am getting more and more confident on Rambo, although I have today re-considered Darkness’ runs in the Scottish and Welsh National and had a small saver bet on him. I dont like making excuses for horses, but in the absence of many other leading contenders and with good enough ground at Aintree, I would not be at all surprised to seem him run a decent race and at 33/1 he is a good ew price.
#277
March 19th, 2009 16:34
What does everyone think of Brooklyn Brownie? I’ve been hearing some people talking this up recently but don’t know alot about it to be honest.
#278
March 19th, 2009 16:40
Agree 100% Daniel, I’ve been opposing SV from day 1. The aim now seems to be to find an alternative and it’s getting more and more difficult so I suppose the temptation is to clutch at straws. Let’s face it, Rambo could be brought down or not be right on the day. Anything could happen. In this case, who’s going to win? State of Play and Character Building seem the most likely with BC being the unknown quantity. Can he produce the goods? I can’t escape the thought that Hear the Echo could also be good enough at his best to lug round 11-04 in what could otherwise be a poor field. See, clutching at straws!!!
#279
March 19th, 2009 16:42
DomiDarko says:
March 19, 2009 at 4:34 PM
What does everyone think of Brooklyn Brownie? I’ve been hearing some people talking this up recently but don’t know alot about it to be honest.
He was one I was keeping an eye on back in Dec/Jan time hoping he would prove himself at the top level. Unfortunately he hasn’t run in a decent race for a while, so I think if you are backing him you are taking a big leap of faith and will need to see a dramatic improvment.
He did beat Snoopy Loopy in June however, but I dont think his could do worse than have a small speculative ew bet on him at big odds, but I cant see him winning.
#280
March 19th, 2009 16:42
Sorry, that last paragraph should say;
…but I dont think his last 3 runs have screamed out Grand National winner, but you could do worse…
#281
March 19th, 2009 16:48
Notelppa, ref: HTE apparently Mouse Morris has finally chucked the toys out of the pram saying he is going to the Irish national as he is better handicapped there. Hope you didn’t have anything on Ante-post, more free money for the bloody bookies following Garde yesterday.
#282
March 19th, 2009 16:51
Is that a definite Brody? Was it in the Racing Post today?
#283
March 19th, 2009 16:58
Darkness just can’t see it winning or finishing tbh. A horse that’s only run well for Tony McCoy, has never won in a big field (max 9 runners), Scottish PU Welsh PU, far from a sure jumper, only thing that screams dark horse to me is the name and its not even dark
#284
March 19th, 2009 16:59
Daniel,
I appreciate that we don’t know that Southern Vic will stay but we can’t be sure that many of the field will get 4m4f.
I think to say he has been “found wanting at the top level numerous times” is somewhat unfair as he has only run in 8 chases outside of novice company and one of those 8 runs brought Grade 3 success. Other runs outside of novice company include a race when he was giving a horse like Cane Brake over 20lbs, a race where he was taking on the likes of the Listener, Beef or Salmon and WOA at levels and a 2m4f chase where he was up against Mansony and Thyne Again. He was not disgraced in any of those races and just the other day finished ahead of Chelsea Harbour and Preists Leap on much worse terms than he meets them at Aintree. Whether 20/1 is a great price is questionable but i’m happy enough with my 33s.
#285
March 19th, 2009 17:01
Stephen Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Is that a definite Brody? Was it in the Racing Post today?
Not definite but very likely, would hold any bets.
#286
March 19th, 2009 17:06
tnanks to everybody for making this a brilliant place to build up to the big race, your expertise and dedication is very impressive. having considered everything that has been written (or as much as possible!)and applied my own judgement i give you the winchester scores:
Rambling Minster – 6
State of Play……5
Killbegan Blade….4
Darkness………..3
Parsons Legacy…..2
Hot Weld………..1
Running Totals:
1st Rambling Minster 105
2nd State of Play 59
3rd Character Building 54
4th Southern Vic 30
5th Darkness 29
Butler’s Cabin 22
Kilbeggan Blade 22
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Parsons legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
Hot Weld 1
#287
March 19th, 2009 17:09
I appreciate we dont know if most of them will stay 4m4f, but we do know that quite a few of them will stay 4 miles or thereabouts, and we do know if even more of them stay 3m4f….We dont even know if Southern Vic stays that far, that was my point.
Yes, ok, in some of his C1 races he was running off levels as you say, but the Bobbyjo run I cannot forgive I am afraid and by not completing in both the Becher and the Thystes Chase he has big doubts in my mind. Couple this with a history of bad jumping, and IMO there are 10 or more with better chances. (Granted though his jumping seemed a lot better in his last run with cheekpieces)
#288
March 19th, 2009 17:28
RAMBO – 6
CHARACTER BULDING – 5
STATE OF PLAY – 4
BUTLERS CABIN – 3
PARSONS LEGACY – 2
HOT WELD – 1
1st Rambling Minster 111
2nd State of Play 63
3rd Character Building 59
4th Southern Vic 30
5th Darkness 29
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 22
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#289
March 19th, 2009 17:53
Exact quote from today’s RP ref HTE “WoA is fine and the plan is to run in the national. If he goes to Aintree, then the likelihood is that HTE will miss the national and go for the Irish Grand National instead.”
Definitely one to swerve.
#290
March 19th, 2009 17:59
Just been down to W. Hill to place a stonking big bet on Darkness and Cornish Sett to back up the big bets on Rambo and KB – yes my own money is where my mouth is (also got CB and a few others now to high in the weights). Waiting on PL who no doubt will let us down again and head for the Scots Nat or something (it will be my last bet if needed).
If you want to bet on the “Dark One – he who is to be feared” or CS get on at WHill NOW (CS 50/1, 40/1 the Dark one)will be all gone very, very soon.
Dont get me wrong I am a Rambo fan 100% but we do need a few others to cheer on on the day dont we? It wooudnt be fair to let Rambo win too easily would it?
Going on holiday for a week to Bournemouth so will not post much for the next 7 days (I’am spending some of the winnings early!!!!).
#291
March 19th, 2009 18:03
Admin plase can we have the old blog system back so we dont have to click through every page of 50 post to get this far.
#292
March 19th, 2009 18:21
ThaiMark
Cant you read I stated last year
“So allowing for a possible miner change in the trends we should exclude any horse with less than 3 prep races.”
So the trends stated 4 prep races but I advised three (not four!!) So please stop playing with words out there.
#293
March 19th, 2009 18:26
Thiking of the Aintree meeting itself – going to back STARLUCK who will run at the meeting – was impressed with the way he travelled in the Triumph and his form on flatter tracks with the emphasis on speed this season as been first class – beat Silk Affair convincingly at Kempton who went on to win at Cheltenahm – profits onto Rambo – he is so far ahead in the table – imagine this blog on 5th April if he does the biz!
#294
March 19th, 2009 20:00
Steady Systemsman steady. You did ask what do you think. Sorry if it sounded a bit rough. Bless you and all your work.
#295
March 19th, 2009 20:21
Admin, If you build it right they will come, if you don’t, it’s the start of the end.
Crisp 73
Love your work and Stephens, showing the profile of the last 30 odd winners. Now I am not knocking Cornish, infact I see a few reasons why he could win but I have 11 horses that I think could win and I need to cut the list.
#296
March 19th, 2009 20:54
J Rambo says:
March 19, 2009 at 6:26 PM
Imagine this blog on 5th April if he does the biz!
I just keep having a terrible thought of, imagine this blog if he didn’t do the biz.
Think the pre-race nerves have well and truly kicked in on me which is a lot earlier than normal but think thats got a lot to do wit GC being withdrawan and now hastily doing all my research again to find a back up.
The news about HTE isn’t too bad for me as i had already given up on the money i had put on him earlier in the year so hopefully no-one has been to badly burnt if it is the case he will be withdrawan.
#297
March 19th, 2009 21:41
i have backed rambling minstrel state of play, hot weld, cornish sett, darkness, chelsea harbour, hear the echo, kilgeggan blade,
any more i should really consider as you guys seem to know your stuff, do you think i will get a winner out of any of these
#298
March 19th, 2009 22:05
I know he needs a few to come out (probably too many) so probably won’t get a run but what do people make of Maljimar as one to keep an eye on should a lot drop out? To be honest I always considered him a 2m4/2m5f horse but he ran really well in the William Hill to go down to Wichita Lineman by just a neck. I know that he has not won over 3m but that that was only his second try at the distance. His pedigree suggests that he should get further than the distances that he’s been running over – his sire Un Desperado has sired class acts like Best Mate but also thorough stayers and proven Aintree performers like Nil Desperendum and Philson Run. His dam’s sire, Mister Lord, has also produced horses with plenty of stamina, including National 3rd Lord Atterbury and other stayers of note such as Earthmover and Lord of Illusion.
#299
March 19th, 2009 22:22
now theres a thing won a right wack on nil desperandum and philson run in the past so i might if he gets in have alittle dabble on Maljimar
#300
March 19th, 2009 22:25
Corals have just snipped Rambling Minster to 14s, leaving just Totesport and Victor Chandler with 16s. If you’re going to top up chaps, now is the hour.
I was at Aintree over the last few days and the place is already dressed up and looking great – it was bathed in spring sunshine, the spruce fences are ready and waiting. Roll on April 4. Roll on Rambo.
The ground is almost certainly ‘good’ and I think ground staff are even doing selective watering. Without a bit of sprinkling the natural going may even be on the firm side, which will not be allowed.
The track dries pretty quickly at Aintree (the Grand National course less so than the Mildmay, especially towards the Canal Turn) and there’s no rain forecast for the next few days so I think further watering between now and the meeting is a cert.
Softer going is really dependant on significant rain during GN week itself, but for it to be ‘heavy’ going I think we would need several deluges in the short-term run-up to the race like in 2001, 1998 or 1994 or a prolonged downpour overnight on the day itself.
The Met Office is forecasting showers for the Liverpool area between now and April 4, but there’s no heavy rain on the horizon at the moment. Things can change, of course. Ask Michael Fish.
The clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch will give the official line in the next few days but I’d be amazed if he’s currently expecting anything other than good going.
It was interesting to hear trainer George Reveley’s comments about how Rambling Minster is at its peak of fitness and how he is desperately hoping to keep him on the boil until the big day.
Like a previous poster I do have slight fears that Rambo may have peaked a few weeks early – it is so difficult to retain a horse’s fitness and enthusiasm over several months and, yes, I do believe a horse can be too much in form to win a GN.
Has anyone as yet named the last horse to win a GN after back-to-back wins?
I have faith in Rambo though – he looks an outstanding choice. After Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy’s mounts, I can see him going off third favourite at 9s, 10s or possibly 12s.
The 16s still available are delicious, even for those of us lucky enough to have snapped him up much bigger prices. Tuck in.
#301
March 19th, 2009 23:31
1. Rambling Minster
2. Irish Invader
3. Character Building
4. Darkness
5. Brooklyn Brownie
6. Kilbeggan Blade
Running Totals:
Rambling Minster 105
Character Building 58
State of Play 54
Southern Vic 30
Darkness 29
Butler’s Cabin 22
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Parsons legacy 9
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
L’Ami 1
#302
March 19th, 2009 23:33
Sorry, those tables were all wrong! Here goes:
Rambling Minster 117
State of Play 63
Character Building 63
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 23
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#303
March 20th, 2009 00:03
Of the leading fancies (see below)in the blogger voting list which prefer Good and Good/Soft (and have won on it)? And which only win on Soft Soft/Heavy? I’am sure someone’s has got these facts to hand to post up for us all saving us all some more work.
Rambling Minster 117
State of Play 63
Character Building 63
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 23
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
#304
March 20th, 2009 00:09
Just noticed the “Dark one” now 4th and creeping up that table.
Amazed SOP still so high with the big weight he will carry (and I also love the horse but that weight a big no for a top 3 position in the short list in my book. I’am fairly sure it will be plus 8lb by GN day))- but we all have our opinions and thats the fun of the table – a great resource.
16/1 on Rambo at this stage amazing – get stuck in while you can wont last more than a day or two more. I’ll even take 14/1 when it occurs.
#305
March 20th, 2009 01:28
I’ve seen hardly a mention of King Johns Castle. I can’t believe, as a relatively unexposed runner, this is still available to back on the exchanges at 28s. 2nd last year when the trends didn’t give it an earthly’s. This year the only trend it appears to miss out on is the 2 runs in a season minimum. It had its prep over hurdles just the other day, and ran well enough according to the RP. It appears in Mordin’s list as joint top, and most of the others in his shortlist have serious negatives against them or won’t run (which really is a serious negative). Ah,I hear you cry, it will be carrying over 11st. Well, rather than stick rigidly to that barrier, why not use the (in my view) better trend that EVERY recent winner has been within 12lbs of the bottom weight? That will apply to KJC, regardless of whether Snoopy Loopy, Nozic or Cloudy Lane is top weight. I’m on.
#306
March 20th, 2009 01:31
i am on rambling minster @25/1. there will be at least another 2lb rise leaving me with about 17 horses. the only ones i might fancy over 11st are priests leap and state of play but 11st is a pretty big negative. form wise i lose reviellez, always waining and hot weld. I strongly believe cornish sett wont stay or improve on last year. so i am left with silver birch who i only didnt back when it won as it was so slow i couldnt see it winning on good ground, parsons legacy who some people say might not run, fleet street, killbeggan blade, brooklyn brownie, character building, himalayan trail and of course rambling minster.
my selections
1. rambling minster
2. priests leap
3. state of play
4. character building
5. silver birch
6. fleet street
#307
March 20th, 2009 01:35
OK Guys I’ve freshly evaluated the runners and here is my Top 6 …there’s quite a change from my last Top 6 during Stage 1′s voting…
1st – RAMBLING MINISTER – 6 POINTS
2nd – DARKNESS – 5 POINTS
3rd – BROOKLYN BROWNIE – 4 POINTS
4th – STATE OF PLAY – 3 POINTS
5th – CHARACTER BUILDING- 2 POINTS
6th – HOT WELD – 1 POINT
New Table:
Rambling Minster 123
State of Play 66
Character Building 65
Darkness 37
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 23
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#308
March 20th, 2009 02:11
Systems – I wasn’t trying to be confrontational and did copy your “should accept 3 prep runs” comment. None of us want to accept that only 1 horse can win it so some trends get stretched
My top 6
1. Rambling Minster
2. Character Building
3. Darkness
4. State of Play
5. Himalayan Trail
6. Kilbeggan Blade
New Totals
Rambling Minster 129
Character Building 70
State of Play 69
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 24
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Himalayan Trail 10
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#309
March 20th, 2009 02:27
I suppose what I’m getting at is that, weights wise, people are shifting from “it must carry less than 11st” to “it must carry less than 11st 1lb” after Hedgehunters win. Either that or ignore Hedgehunter entirely. Well, what greater merit, if any, does that approach carry than mine (and others) that says the weights issue should say look at any horse that carries no more than 12lbs above the bottom weight? After all, in my view, the closer the bottom weight gets to 11st, the more you are going to have to factor the over-11stoners into your calculations.
And I speak as someone who has had not insubstantial wagers on CB, KB, HT and RM.
But if KJC does the business, I can afford to vote “No” to my next pay rise offer and man the picket lines for a few months!
#310
March 20th, 2009 09:11
Well the last two bookies caved in. It’s 14/1 across the board now on Rambo!
Looks like everyone else that isn’t on this blog has finally cottoned on
#311
March 20th, 2009 09:39
Morning all
I’d like to start the day with a quiz (I’m not looking for all correct answers…..just the ones you know would be helpful) :
Q1 – Who was the last French bred to win ?
Q2 – Who was the last winner who started the race coming off back-to-back wins ?
Q3 – Who was the last horse to win carrying over 11-1 ?
Q4 – Who was the last winner not to have run in the calendar year ?
Q5 – Who was the last winner to have won at the preceeding Cheltenham Festival ?
Q6 – Who was the last winner older than 10 not to have run over the Aintree fences before ?
Q7 – Who was the last winner younger than 8 ?
Q8 – Who was the last grey to win ? (you know this – I know this…. but I’ve spotted something……the answer is Nicolaus Silver 1961…..off the back of his win in the…….Kim Muir !!……interesting……don’t know if this answers Q5)
Getting increasingly sweet on BC……I know he’s 13lb “wrong” but I can’t help making comparisons between this year and 2007 (his best ever performance, in the Irish National, coming 3 weeks after a hard race at Cheltenham, in the NH Chase)……just feel he’s a horse that is a) best in the spring and b) thrives on being “hard raced”
I’m not too worried about him being wrong at the weights……I’d far rather have a horse that appears to like the place (through the years how many horses that are apparently out of form everywhere else they run, then “come alive once they spot the spruce”) than an untested one that may end up hating the place.
But to completely contradict myself there are also the types that are soured by the whole experience (I bloody well would be after being asked to jump Becher’s twice) and spit their dummy out when they return…….at the end of the day you just hope yours is not one of ‘em !!
And as for my other one (CB) ? – I watched the Kim Muir again yesterday……..WOW !!…….sometimes you just have to go with what you see with your own eyes……11st 12lb and never had a race……admittedly the bottom weight one only had 10-13 but even so…….he’ll feel as free as a bird going round Aintree with 10-5 on his back, won’t he ?
*NB* Something else about these 2 not mentioned in my earlier post – they’ve both ran over hurdles this season…..a HUGE plus (stats wise)
As they say, it’s all about opinions – and these are mine (certainly wouldn’t want to put anyone off their own carefully hatched plans/coups and everyone seems to make a persuasive case for their own)
So when BC falls and brings down CB the first thing I’ll do is get back on the blog and see who was right !!
Answers to the Qs then chaps please ?
#312
March 20th, 2009 09:57
Q1 – I think it was Lutteur III in 1909. With the number of French breds in training one will win sooner or later. Encore En Pieu, Royal Auclair and Clan Royal have gone close recently.
Q2 – No idea.
Q3 – Corbiere 1983
Q4 – No idea
Q5 – Seagram 1991
Q6 – Guess at Minnehoma 1994
Q7 – Bogskar 1940
#313
March 20th, 2009 10:49
am i being a pessimist” only the way all firms are laying
it looks like to me the GRAND NATIONAL will go “off” with 8(eight)
equal 6/1 FAVOURITES!!!!
MY SMALL ANTE POST PORTFOLIO,,
MY WILL @34/1,36/1, 40/1, 42/1 20/1, 14/1
BIG FELLA THANKS, 40/1, 16/1
KING JOHNS CASTLE, 170/1,65/1,
CONNA CASTLE, 65/1,340/1 300/1
WELL BEST OF LUCK TO ONE AND ALL,
#314
March 20th, 2009 11:28
anyone with suppersoccer account rambling still 18/1 there
#315
March 20th, 2009 11:32
Ground Dependent;
Q2, Highland Wedding ’69 was the last winner to come here on back to back wins, was actually on a four timer.
Q4, Since 1960, and possibly since the second world war, only Specify, 84 days has not race within 8 weeks of the GN. Aldaniti raced 52 days before his win. 46/48 have raced between 10-49 days of the GN. No horse since the mid 60′s has raced less than 2 weeks before.
Q6, Recent stats are not good for 11 yr olds taking part in the GN for the first time. However this may be just an ‘occurence’ as in the last 25 years Last Suspect, Maori Venture, Mr Frisk and Seagram all won GN in their first appearance as 11yr olds.
#316
March 20th, 2009 11:41
Crisp,
I think Minnehoma also won the race as an 11yo debutant.
#317
March 20th, 2009 11:44
Hi Admin, just a request if possible. Any chance of Making the newer comments >> link take you right to the end of the blog as most people using this site are all doing just that because we are on it so often, i.e going to the end log and then tracking back to the last read log and then reading the rest ?
#318
March 20th, 2009 11:51
My Top Six
Rambling Minster 6pts (seems in a league of his own)
Parson’s Legacy 5pts (only neg days since last run)
Black Apalachi 4pts (needs sft & sl high in weights)
Butlers Cabin 3pts (needs gd but prom run L T O )
Himalayan Trail 2pts (fits trends needs to improve)
State of Play 1pt (hard desiscion between SOP & Character Building picked SOP because of memory of 2 wins after lay off 1 at Aintree & other at Newbury plus think Rambling Minster has beating of Character Building .Thanks to all contributors,really enjoying the debate.
The scores now are
Rambling Minster 135
Character Building 70
State of Play 70
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 28
Kilbeggan Blade 24
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 18
Himalayan Trail 12
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 7
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#319
March 20th, 2009 11:58
What do the forumites think about the fitting of a first time tongue tie to Character Building in the Kim Muir?
#320
March 20th, 2009 12:03
Stayer- you’re right about Miinnehoma. I only mentioned the others purely as extra information for Ground Dependent.
#321
March 20th, 2009 12:05
Thanks Crisp.
It has been a little while since an 11yo triumphed so we must be due another one!
#322
March 20th, 2009 12:13
Sorry correction to Black Apalchi’s score it should be 8 not 7.
The scores now are
Rambling Minster 135
Character Building 70
State of Play 70
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 28
Kilbeggan Blade 24
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 18
Himalayan Trail 12
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 8
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#323
March 20th, 2009 12:32
just one thing on “the dark one” looking at the form on rp website he does seem to fall out with jockey that don’t carry the last name mccoy?? most of his places or pus not all but most are when AP is not on board?
#324
March 20th, 2009 12:47
My top 6 is as follows:
1 Rambling Minster 6
2 Butlers cabin 5
3 Kilbeggan Blade 4
4 Offshore account 3
5 State of play 2
6 Comply or die 1
Running totals:
Rambling Minster 123
State of Play 65
Character Building 63
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 30
Kilbeggan Blade 27
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Offshore account 3
Comply or Die 4
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#325
March 20th, 2009 13:02
Rambo now into 12′s with bet 365, and yesterday all the 16′s dried up mainly 14′s now……this could be the steady constant flow of money for him that i expected…..whats the odds of co favourites of 3 or 4?
Well i guess all my bets have been placed now i looked through them all this morning, Rambo obviously being my main gamble i counted them up all those spare 10 and 20′s that i have been placing soon amount up, it’s surprising….lets just hope he does the business.
#326
March 20th, 2009 13:03
Those aren’t the updated totals I’m afraid ChoccaBloc
#327
March 20th, 2009 13:07
1 Cornish Sett 6
2 Rambo 5
3 Character Building 4
4 State of Play 3
5 Parsons 2
6 Black Apalachi 1
Running totals:
Rambling Minster 128
State of Play 68
Character Building 67
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 30
Kilbeggan Blade 27
Cornish Sett 23
Parsons legacy 15
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 5
My Will 3
Offshore account 3
Comply or Die 4
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#328
March 20th, 2009 13:11
Added my scores to ChoccaBloc so must be wrong, will update shortly.
#329
March 20th, 2009 13:19
ChoccaBloc’s score
1 Rambling Minster 6
2 Butlers cabin 5
3 Kilbeggan Blade 4
4 Offshore account 3
5 State of play 2
6 Comply or die 1
My scores
1 Cornish Sett 6
2 Rambo 5
3 Character Building 4
4 State of Play 3
5 Parsons 2
6 Black Apalachi 1
Updated scores-hope they are correct.
Rambling Minster 146
State of Play 75
Character Building 74
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 33
Kilbeggan Blade 28
Cornish Sett 23
Parsons legacy 20
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Himalayan Trail 12
Black Apalachi 9
Irish Invader 8
Comply or Die 4
My Will 3
Offshore account 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#330
March 20th, 2009 13:21
Puzzled – it’s just the fact that you can less than 16/1 on Betfair now. No bookies have any bollocks any more, they just follow the machine. If they did have any balls they’d probably be trading themselves on Betfair rather than sitting in an office in Stoke working for Bet £3.65!
#331
March 20th, 2009 13:26
That’s spot on Jack. I regularly check the Betfair AP market as you know when Betfair price is trading < the bookies price the bookies price isn’t going to last much longer. SOP is currently around 19s on Betfair so the 20s available with most bookies will start disappearing. Anyone who wants to get on @20s best do so soon.
#332
March 20th, 2009 14:15
Totally agree on the bookies. Bunch of cowards. I can’t imagine they have taken much at all on Black Apalachi from any serious punter for weeks and until we see what ground conditions will be like and yet he is 12′s across the Board. You would think one would offer a 14′s or 16′s and try making a book!
I have just had a last £30 e/w on Rambo and like many others on here stand to win a lot of cash if he comes up trumps. As others have said, he could fall, be brought down, get carried out or anything and so I do hope everyone in the Rambo camp is having stake money savers on another few runners that meet the trends and their trends.
I KNOW I stand to be shot down (no need for replies!) but I don’t at all fancy My Will or Butlers Cabin. Their being French Bred is part of it but far from all. So, I think we have a couple of soft favourites there and I won’t be backing either of them at all. I am not convinced that CB has the resolution to win the race but have had a saver on him, as I felt that I had to.
All of the 16′s on Rambo has now gone. Last night I seen that Coral, Tote and Chandler were 16′s on Rambo – but when I went to back him this morning with all 3 it had disappeared (literally overnight!). My own opinion is that Rambo will not start any less than 8/1 and more like 10/1 and so we are reaching the point soon (perhaps already) where it is not worth backing him ante post. No point risking losing your ante post cash for the sake of a couple of points.
Interesting post on the possible runners thread (by Puzzler or Stayer I think) that Nichols is classing Nozic as 50/50 and so we may see another 3lb hike in the weights if he and Snoopy Loopy don’t run. In that eventuality and as the weights would be compressed like never before, I would certainly not discount horses due to carry up to 11st 2lbs, which meet trends, are in decent form and get their ground.
#333
March 20th, 2009 14:27
I agree your sentiments re: having a saver bet Whiterab.
At the moment, I cannot see past Rambling Minster. BUT if something did happen to him, im covered on some other stats horses, mainly Butlers Cabin but also Cornish Sett and Character Building (cant see them winning, but just in case) and Darkness (Darkness for a very small amount) and a couple of non-stats ones in State of Play and Parsons Legacy.
Still should have a ‘green book’ on Betfair by the off though. Worst result is a £20 loss at the mo, but should be able to lay off some Rambo soon and turn that into win-win across the board.
Think I might switch off for a day or two now; I woke up thinking about Butlers Cabin this morning!! How sad…
#334
March 20th, 2009 17:52
Thanks for answering the Qs, Stayer & Crisp (bonus titbits from the both of you too – Ta) Jonny V ? – we have our answer !
I bid everyone a relaxing weekend – but doubt the blog will get much sleep……until next week then fellas.
#335
March 20th, 2009 18:18
Daniel thats really funny what you said about waking up thinking about BC…..for the last 3 weeks or so the first thing i do when i get up is put the RP web site on and hope their is no bad news…..lol.
I was only thinking today what with all the sorting through over 100 horses and looking back through past form and stuff i must have spent time every day over the last 3 months on this one race in some way or another…..3 months for something that will all be over in around 10 minutes
#336
March 20th, 2009 18:19
……and as for you Daniel, you should be ashamed of yourself – but it did make me laugh as I TOTALLY know where you’re coming from cos I WENT TO BED thinking about Butler’s Cabin. I’m better than this……I want the days back when I used to go to bed thinking about what I was going to do to those two 6ft Swedish Blondes rather than how I feel about two 16 Hand Irish horses.
Must be getting old……
#337
March 20th, 2009 19:18
Swedish? forget about it they have a terrible record in the race, haven’t won for over a hundred years
#338
March 20th, 2009 19:47
snoopy loopy out ……. on rp website weights to rise a further 3 pounds and nozic doubtful due to this.
#339
March 20th, 2009 19:54
help please – narrowing down nicely now with weight increase, stumbling over a few so some advice would be useful; silver birch (am i just being loyal after having him at 33s) and offshore account.
#340
March 20th, 2009 20:34
I wonder if Donald McCain is saying to Mr Hemmings, ‘Why the hell should we let Cloudy Lane take the strain of top weight. Let’s go for something else!’ Who wants to be top weight!
#341
March 20th, 2009 20:41
Cloudy will definitely run in my opinion. Trevor loves the race and the plan will have to been to come back this year all along.
#342
March 20th, 2009 21:32
Can you see Donald McCain pursuading any owner to scratch a horse from the National? Who was the last horse to win with topweight? His Dad’s pride & joy.
#343
March 20th, 2009 23:20
so if the weights go up another 3 lb i wonder how many of us will still include State of play in our final 6? 11-4 if far to much for my liking.
#344
March 20th, 2009 23:25
correction 11-2 for state of play
#345
March 21st, 2009 00:08
11’2 winnable weight for State Of Play if it stays
Achieved more by this stage of his career than Hedgehunter in my opinion
Can he win without a recent run? Well he sure as hell cannot with a recent run.
But as advised previously I tipped a 167-1 double running on to Rambling Minster at 20-1 so I am biased towards the Reveley runner although State Of Play and Southern Vic will be included in my Aintree yankees
#346
March 21st, 2009 00:55
Hi all
.
Just discovered a very small something whilst looking at recent winners experience of good ground (as SV’s lack of it worries me). Anyways I stumbled across Number6ValVerde and noticed that he didnt come top 3 in a chase in winning season. I believed this was a 19/20 stat. With only Papillon not doing (but he came 3rd in a hurdles race). Number 6 also came 3rd in hurdles race that year but just seemed odd as I have this stat written down. Could anybody confirm or deny this for me please
Almost finished my final analysis with some very interesting results. SV’s recent third had made me think Im going to have to have a saver bet on him – to cover my stake. Still totally uninterested in BC as I have been since he won Irish Nat. But some of my more fancied runners have become a little more doubtful. Will reveal all in next few days.
Keep up the good work all
Ells
1
#347
March 21st, 2009 01:19
Lough Derg
Look at Silver Birch form – all wins on Soft or worse – Aintree is genuinely Good ground these days – ok for horses that like a bit of give. Think about it – why do Irish horses that run on bad ground do so well at Aintree? Traditionally fast track but no longer fast for GN because of Animal Rights. Hurdles races are run on a different course.
Last ten years:
Bobbyjo
Papillon
Monty’s Pass
Hedgehunter
Numbersixvalverde
Silver Birch (racing in UK primarily)
Also explains why some Irish runners do well running over shorter distances and can stay the National trip – because of heavy ground at home and better ground (still with some give at Aintree)
There are lots of examples of Irish runners winning at Cheltenham at longer trips than they are used to in Ireland (Ninetieth Minute a good recent example, thankfully)
Stayers have to stay the distance – obvious but often overlooked
#348
March 21st, 2009 01:49
Put it this way – I do not believe we would have seen so many recent Irish GN winners if the ground was faster than good over the past ten years – and would want a horse carrying my money to be able to act on slower ground
#349
March 21st, 2009 02:30
Hi Pablo
That wasn’t really the question I wanted the answer to lol. I was hoping someone could tell me about the 19/20 stat when Number6 doesn’t seem to meet it either.
With regards to SV I was merely checking as he appears to be at his best on heavy. I was only saying how I came across the question I asked. Had I bothered to post my findings I would have stated that on findings I decided SV’s form on soft/heavy ground makes his form on good unkown, but not necessarily unbackable. But I didn’t bother to post these findings as this wasn’t the reason for my post. I agree with your response tho, altho I would still prefer a horse who runs well on good and has proven it.
All this being said, I have gone back to square 1 with SV. I don’t think he will win. I’m going to have literally enough to cover my stake and that will be it. Here’s why:
Negatives (imo):
- No proof he will get thr ground
- Ran last race quite soon to GN and appeared to be knackered and all out at the end of it.
- Already fallen over GN fences
- Not won since 06
- Never ran further than 25f
- Until LTO has been a very dodgy jumper at times
- Doesn’t meet the top 5 Hennessy trend etc
*All negatives which on their own wouldn’t be enough to put you off whatsoever but when put together make other horse’s profiles much more attractive imo*
Positives:
- Appeared to jump superbly well when wearing blinkers for first time LTO.
- Had him down as a National winner 2 years ago. Backed him accordingly. Was rumours that he would be aimed at GN in future.
They are my findings on SV and I was worried for a while that I may have come round to this horse. Unlike BC I’ve decided he is worth having an extremely small wager on, but purely to cover myself.
Ells
1
#350
March 21st, 2009 02:31
Top 6 -
Character Building 6
Rambling Minster 5
L’Ami 4
Butler’s cabin 3
Darkness 2
Southern Vic 1
New Totals -
Rambling Minster 146
Character Building 76
State Of Play 72
Darkness 43
Butler’s Cabin 36
Southern Vic 31
Kilbeggan Blade 28
Parsons Legacy 18
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Himalayan Trail 12
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
L’Ami 5
Comply Or Die 4
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
#351
March 21st, 2009 04:18
Right, finally finished my final analysis. Surprised myself with some things.
Even without weight rise was really starting to doubt SOP. As I’ve said before, main positive for me is the trainers confidence. Without that I wouldn’t be too sure. Plus appears to be too high in the weights now come race day. Not saying a horse can’t win from that mark, (If it was Rambo I would reconsider) but if there’s enough questions you can ask about a horse when hes carrying that sorta weight then I’m happy to cross off list.I have a fair wedge on this horse as I knew it would run and thats its odds would shorten, will lay out both stake and some profit closer to the time (put on my preferred horses)
My Will and Butlers Cabin firmly crossed out. Did quite like My Will long before Cheltenham but again too many question marks for a horse carrying that sort of weight, plus looked to have a tough race in GC.
The major worry for me was unlike Systems I seemed to have gone the other way with Darkness. As you all know I’ve been a huge ambassador for this horce. Picked it out in early analysis and had small wager with a view to piling on if it ran well next time out. Which it did. However on looking from scratch little worried. Obviously the two PU’s in Nationals are a worry. Altho I thought jumping was fine in last race, is known to be poor at times, and as many have mentioned, need a decent jumping round at Aintree to win. Have come back around slightly on looking again, but won’t feature as highly in my rankings as previously. Again I’ve backed heavily on this 1, will lay out stake on the day.
Also realised the strength of CB’s profile. Liked him long before Cheltenham run. Backed him last year for GN but didn’t run after Hennessy
. However wanted to see more this season. Like Darkness had small wager at longer odds with a view to placing more with a better run. Very impressed with performance at Cheltenham and as Ive said on many many occassions… A trend is a trend, but we have to use our common sense. I would much rather have a horse win easily at Cheltenham and not have to work very hard, than have a horse place off the bridle and all out. I don’t care whether Cheltenham winners don’t win or not. The point is My Will and Butlers Cabin are the 2 current favourites and both undoubtedly had tougher races than Character Building. It doesn’t matter about their position. Same goes for SV’s final prep race on 14th. Look at him at the end – knackered. Has some very classy form – 3rd in quality Hennessy and I love horses that have already proven they can stay. My top two being Rambo and CB. CB was 2nd to BC over 33f and Rambo won over 33f. Gets rid of the ‘will they stay’ question that most other horses carry. 1 less thing to worry about. Only negative with this 1 is whether it will find anything off the bridle? But everthing else is there and happy to have wedge on it.
Finally, with L’ami. Still really really like. Great profile and seems to be enjoying himself for first time in yonks. Looks to be 10lb better off than when carrying 11-8 round 2 years ago when only 8. Think it has class that most others don’t and can honestly imagine hearing his name being called coming up the straight.
Anyways enough of my ramblings, here’s my top 6 – assuming weights go up 2-3lb, doesn’t make any difference.(no bias, doesn’t matter what money I have on, just purely based on my final analysis):
1.) RAMBLING MINSTER – 6
2.) CHARACTER BUILDING – 5
3.) L’ami – 4
4.) Cornish Sett – 3
5.) Brooklyn Brownie – 2
6.) Parsons Legacy – 1
Darkness just misses out. He is the only other 1 I might have profit on. Only other backable is SV – literally just to cover stake. If the winner is outside those 8 I’ll be amazed.
Current Table:
Rambling Minster 152
Character Building 81
State Of Play 72
Darkness 45 – (Been waiting to do this for ages – Back on March 19th, Performance Factore only added 1 even though he scored him 3. I believe this hasn’t been rectified).
Butler’s Cabin 36
Southern Vic 31
Kilbeggan Blade 28
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Brooklyn Brownie 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 4
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
#352
March 21st, 2009 05:57
Nice post Lough. In complete agreement on your top 2 and Betfair seem to be taking a similar line. Only horses currently under 20s (apart from RM & CB) are My Will, BA, BC, & BFT. Only 3 under 27s – SV, HTE & SOP.
I’m stressed this year as Rambo is the clear stats horse and I worry the trends are going to be re-written.
#353
March 21st, 2009 06:36
“Lough ‘ So Tough’ Derg says:
”
March 21, 2009 at 12:55 AM
Hi all
Just discovered a very small something whilst looking at recent winners experience of good ground (as SV’s lack of it worries me). Anyways I stumbled across Number6ValVerde and noticed that he didnt come top 3 in a chase in winning season. I believed this was a 19/20 stat. With only Papillon not doing (but he came 3rd in a hurdles race). Number 6 also came 3rd in hurdles race that year but just seemed odd as I have this stat written down. Could anybody confirm or deny this for me please
You are indeed correct Lough. Number6 ran in two chases in the season of his GN win. He was brought down in the Paddy Power Chase and came 4th in the Pierse Chase. I don’t use the Chase stat myself. I prefer the “top 3 finish in ANY of the previous 3 races” stat.
#354
March 21st, 2009 09:31
Silver Birch won the grand national on good ground, bordering on fast – hence why i backed mckelvey that year. not sure about the only soft ground comment. not sure whether it can win again with prep it has had but i reckon it could go well.
#355
March 21st, 2009 09:36
Lough Derg “1 less thing to worry about. Only negative with this 1 is whether it will find anything off the bridle?”
Have a look at Rambos new year run – he flew home and last time out he didnt even have to shake the reigns he simply cruised home
#356
March 21st, 2009 10:35
TC Lough was talking about CB not Rambling, CB has form of not finding much if he hits the front too early.
Nice post btw Lough can’t disagree with any of that. Do rate SV a bit more than you, but the jockey choice on that will tells us everything we need to know about his chances I think.
#357
March 21st, 2009 11:09
Well boys.. 2 weeks to the Big Day
Let’s hope collectively we can all do really well.
See Rambo is into 12s with 4 bookies online inc Paddy Power. Also into 14s on betfair.
Can anyone provide the most recent word on Parson’s, please?
Is this actually going to be the year he shows, lol
#358
March 21st, 2009 11:19
Showlad Says:
March 21st, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Can anyone provide the most recent word on Parson’s, please?
Is this actually going to be the year he shows, lol
Dave Mitchell of Daily Mirror quotes in his column this morning that all so far is well.
#359
March 21st, 2009 11:42
“SILVER BIRCH won the 2004 Becher Chase, but was a faller at the Chair in last year’s Grand National, having previously spent time on the sidelines with a leg problem. It may have been felt by some that conditions would prove too lively for Silver Birch, but on watered ground, which produced a carpet-like surface, he appeared to be in his element throughout…”
It was not fast ground…
…and very unlikely to be this year either.
#360
March 21st, 2009 11:42
Thanks Half Day
Anyone know the last word from his camp – from the horses mouth – so to speak, or does this article quote his camp Harry?
Like a lot on here frightened to bet on him in case he doesn’t show again..
#361
March 21st, 2009 11:55
Was looking for another horse to have a dabble on and i am drawn to KILBREGGAN BLADE who fits most of the trends and is actually 6lbs better off with rambo who he beat by 4 1/2 lengths at sandown in december over 30f.At 33s, is this a value bet? Any pos or neg feedback on this.
#362
March 21st, 2009 12:02
Showlad Says:
March 21st, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Anyone know the last word from his camp – from the horses mouth – so to speak, or does this article quote his camp Harry?
Like a lot on here frightened to bet on him in case he doesn’t show again..
Reply
It seems to be from horses mouth,Dave Mitchell also suggests backing a horse today and investing winnings on parsons @ 40s
#363
March 21st, 2009 12:36
Hi
Think I might have a small bet now. Still not too much until nearer day.
That’s the link I presume Harry is referring to
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/racing/2009/03/winner-machine-hobbs-plays-his.html
Ells
1
#364
March 21st, 2009 12:44
Cheers Lough.
If my memory serves me right, The 5 Day Declaration Stage on 30th – that’s when the final 40 are confirmed and I think 3 horses are named as official spares/next in line – is that right?
Just wondering, as like many of you, that will be the day when any of my horses that didn’t make cut, get refunded
Can someone confirm that the 40 and the cpl spares are announced on the 30th..
#365
March 21st, 2009 12:46
Also on searching for any news I found this.
McManus has six horses still entered in this year’s National and a decision as to which will carry McCoy will be left until nearer the time. Many feel the decision is a foregone conclusion, as Butler’s Cabin is by far the shortest in the betting at 12-1, but the jockey has an open mind.
“I haven’t spoken to JP about it yet and you have to look at all the pros and cons. King Johns Castle was second last year, and you’d have to think about L’Ami as well.”
In last year’s National, an early fall from L’Ami ended the career of Mick Fitzgerald, who suffered spinal injuries. McCoy, however, seems impervious to such an ill omen. “Fitzy’s one of my best friends, but what happened last year doesn’t make me think, I’m not riding L’Ami. If L’Ami’s the one, then L’Ami’s the one.”
Don’t know whether McCoy being on board would be a good thing or not lol. He’s finished the GN with him before tho and will know tactics as how to ride him this year based on that run. Still think he will take BC tho. Just an interesting quote, and the fact he mentions him in detail reinforces my belief that this horse has a chance.
Ells
1
#366
March 21st, 2009 12:52
I know we’d mentioned this on site earlier, but here is the full info on Snoops and Nozic withdrawals.
That’ll have Kilbeggan in and prob Character, with the well thought of on this site, Brooklyn Brownie, prob next and chomping at bit.
‘WEIGHTS for the John Smith’s Grand National on April 4 will rise by a further 3lb after current 11st 10lb top weight Snoopy Loopy was confirmed a non-runner on Friday and Paul Nicholls announced that Nozic, next in the handicap on 11st 8lb, is also doubtful.
Peter Bowen, Snoopy Loopy’s trainer, said his 11-year-old will run instead in the Totesport Bowlat Aintree, leaving Nozic as the new top weight.
But Nicholls revealed that burden would rule out his 66-1 outsider from the £900,000 chase, saying: “If Nozic ends up with top weight, he’d be a doubtful runner.”
Should Nozic, who also holds entries in the Topham Chase at Aintree and the Scottish National later in the year, not run Cloudy Lane, one of the joint-favourites for last year’s race, could end up at the head of the list.’
#367
March 21st, 2009 13:49
Did anyone see the full-page GN analysis in the latest Weekender?
‘Systems analyst’ Nick Mordin applied 13 golden rules to the 128 remaining entries (written some days ago) and came up with a shortlist of 12 horses:
1 – Hear The Echo.
T2 – Chelsea Harbour, Himalayan Trail, King Johns Castle, Silver Birch.
T6 – Mattock Ranger, Miko de Beauchene, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Snowy Morning and State of Play.
While urging punters to cash in on the 20s available for Hear the Echo, he claims 8 out of the last 11 GN winners could have been identified from using his system.
Curiously Mordin penalises any horse that has won more than once in their last six runs and equally rewards any horse that has taken part in a hurdles race this season – regardless of its finishing position.
His list of 12 next best runners features Black Apalachi, Butler’s Cabin, Cornish Sett, Fleet Street, Flintoff, Hot Weld, Idle Talk, Lysander, Ollie Magern, Preists Leap, Southern Vic…….oh, and Rambling Minster.
Could it be that on April 4 we will be scratching our heads and wondering how we got it so wrong and how this guy got it so right? I think not.
P.S. Is someone now going to ask me to type up details of the 13 ‘golden rules’ he applied? Let me have a cup of tea first…eh?
#368
March 21st, 2009 15:00
haha firstly isnt mouse seriously considering pulling HTE?? in favour of running only WOA and secondly is HTE now not carrying a small bungalow on his back for 4 miles???
#369
March 21st, 2009 15:06
Nick Mordin’s 13 ‘golden rules’:
1, Award 5 points to entries who raced off a handicap mark of at least 137 that season (including in this race).
2, 5 points if they had previously reached the first three in a chase with at least 13 runners.
3, 5 points if they had won over at least 3m.
4, Another 5 points if they’ve won over 3m3f+ or reached the first three in one of the big five Nationals (Aintree, Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Midlands).
5, 5 points if they did not race as a novice chase in the previous season.
6, 5 points if they had completed the course in a field of 18 or more on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the past decade.
7, 5 points if they are set to carry less than 11st 2lb.
8, 5 points if they ran over hurdles this season.
9, 5 points if they’ve won no more than once in their last six runs.
10, 5 points if they are NOT French bred.
11, 5 points if they’ve earned a Racing Post handicap rating higher than 145.
12, 5 points if they haven’t worn blinkers or visor this season.
13, 5 points if they’ve had 14 or fewer starts over fences.
He awarded Hear the Echo 65 points, the next batch 60, Mattock Ranger & Co 55 points and his 12 ‘next best’ with 50 points each.
Ten of the last 11 GN winners, he claims, have racked up 50 points or more on his ratings system. Therefore his 24-horse hitlist for the 2009 Grand National may have a 91% chance of containing the name of the winner!
I suppose the most interesting aspect of his analysis is that he reckons this year’s winner is likely to be Irish. Please not. I generally don’t trust the Irish horses to run to form or to comply with trends. There’s been rogue aspects to a few of our Irish winners recently, but that’s perhaps for another discussion.
At least our Grand National expert Nick Mordin is honest enough to admit that one of his systems for Cheltenham led him to striking a line through Kauto Star!! Whoops!
#370
March 21st, 2009 15:27
Stumbled across this blog this is how i narrow down the winner.
previous national winners
3 1 8 5 7 4 12 0.56 12 14 20
4 4 5 6 9 8 15 0.59 13 15 20
5 6 1 9 5 11 14 0.85 12 16 15
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18
5 2 3 7 7 7 14 0.63 10 12 17
4 3 10 2 10 7 12 0.66 17 15 22
4 2 4 8 4 6 12 0.70 10 14 16
0 6 3 9 7 6 16 0.35 9 18 19
7 2 2 4 10 9 14 0.69 11 8 16
4 2 6 6 7 6 13 0.62 12 14 19
3 1 4 8 8 4 16 0.39 8 13 20
1 4 5 9 8 5 17 0.37 10 18 22
4 3 10 4 7 7 11 0.75 17 17 21
4 4 4 8 6 8 14 0.67 12 16 18
This year’s fancy’s
2 4 5 12 4 6 16 0.52 11 21 21 state of pla
4 3 2 14 3 7 17 0.59 9 19 19 rambo
5 7 5 6 2 12 8 1.47 17 18 13 darkness
5 8 1 4 8 13 12 0.90 14 13 13 c sett
6 3 4 7 7 9 14 0.76 13 14 18 p legacy
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18 k blade
6 6 5 6 6 12 12 1 17 17 17 c building
3 6 4 8 6 9 14 0.67 13 18 18 butlers ca
1 9 5 10 3 10 13 0.76 15 24 18 s vic
This is not the dodage index it is based on the female side of the pedigree and previous national winners show strong patterns.
summing up darness c sett char build and s vic
can’t and won’t win quote me on this after race.
state of play and rambo would have more classic points than the last 17 winner’s.
on these figures i like butlers cabin and kil blade.
if there are any other horses you would like me to profile let me know.
#371
March 21st, 2009 16:02
well if you look at those and leave out the names of those who carry over 11.2 you get:
silver birch
mattock ranger
Miko de Beauchene
mon mome
parsons legacy
reveillez
state of play
#372
March 21st, 2009 16:21
i think it would be a good idea if we could come up with our own rules and ignore some of feeble ones such as blinkers + hurdles. i also some would need to be worth 10 points such as an OR Between 036 and 144 – so i will start with that + obviously add 10 points for the obvious one of a winner of 3 mile race.
Can you add your own thoughts, suggestions and we will finally end up with the realistiic list which will hopefully incude the winner.
#373
March 21st, 2009 16:41
Not that its going to make much different but just thought I’d report. Both Kelami and Ice Tea ran shockers in C2 3m race at Bangor just now. Pretty sure both were PU.
Ells
1
#374
March 21st, 2009 17:02
He sounds a good tipster this guy….. a hit list of 24 horses i am sure if i told you my 24 against the field then i would get the winner also…..i am happy with my 2 against the field at this stage
#375
March 21st, 2009 17:22
Hello chaps. Here is my top 6…
1. Rambo 6
2. Kilbeggan Blade 5
3. Character Building 4
4. Butlers Cabin 3
5. Comply or Die 2
6. Big Fella Thanks 1
#376
March 21st, 2009 18:18
I’ll give you some help with this table Showlad!
Update table after DomiDarkos rankings :
Rambling Minster 158
Character Building 85
State Of Play 72
Darkness 45
Butler’s Cabin 39
Southern Vic 31
Kilbeggan Blade 33
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Brooklyn Brownie 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 6
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
Big Fella Thanks – 1
Ells
1
#377
March 21st, 2009 20:59
Good one Lough
#378
March 21st, 2009 21:18
I think you have all just woke up and had a smell of the coffee!!I read the article about the 13 golden rules to finding the national winner as my work mate said he had backed hear the echo because of this.He asked his bro to put the bet on the next day at 20/1 and the price had gone and that is why all our talking up of rambo’s chances has affected its current price.We can affect the price of any horse in the race if enough of us agree about its chances on this blog.Still its not all bad as will be able to lay of some of my 40′s at 10′s on betfair and still have a 30/1 winner for no bet.Oh and for anyone reading that doesn’t comment RAMBO is a racing certainty!!!!!!!!!!
#379
March 21st, 2009 21:26
Hi,I call this site marmite! I love it, she hates it.
Anyway my top 6 (with thanks to all of the regulars input on here)
Rambo 6
S.O.P 5
Kilbeggan Blade 4
Brooklyn Brownie 3
Darkness 2
C.O.D 1 (CANT TURN MY BACK ON A PREVIOUS WINNER)
NEW TOTALS
Rambling Minster 164
Character Building 85
State Of Play 77
Darkness 47
Butler’s Cabin 39
Kilbeggan Blade 37
Southern Vic 31
Brooklyn Brownie 22
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 7
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
Big Fella Thanks – 1
#380
March 21st, 2009 22:07
Rambling Minster and Character Building wouldn’t win the National between them even if they were the only two running. Forget all your stats and points systems, you’re all starting to belive your own communal destiny. It comes as no surprise to me that Hot Weld was schooling at Aintree the other day. Anyone who backed Your Special at 40/1 a few years ago at Cheltenham (with no previous form) know that some yards are quiet about things. And that’s the way these things happen. Ferdy has won enough Nationals to know how to train one for the day…..
#381
March 22nd, 2009 10:53
Who invited that bloke “Rambling Minster and Character Building wouldn’t win the National between them even if they were the only two running”
The stats have led me to the winner for the past 4 years, so i see no reason for it to change again!
#382
March 22nd, 2009 11:06
“REDRUM says:
March 21, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Stumbled across this blog this is how i narrow down the winner.
previous national winners
3 1 8 5 7 4 12 0.56 12 14 20
4 4 5 6 9 8 15 0.59 13 15 20
5 6 1 9 5 11 14 0.85 12 16 15
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18
5 2 3 7 7 7 14 0.63 10 12 17
4 3 10 2 10 7 12 0.66 17 15 22
4 2 4 8 4 6 12 0.70 10 14 16
0 6 3 9 7 6 16 0.35 9 18 19
7 2 2 4 10 9 14 0.69 11 8 16
4 2 6 6 7 6 13 0.62 12 14 19
3 1 4 8 8 4 16 0.39 8 13 20
1 4 5 9 8 5 17 0.37 10 18 22
4 3 10 4 7 7 11 0.75 17 17 21
4 4 4 8 6 8 14 0.67 12 16 18
This year’s fancy’s
2 4 5 12 4 6 16 0.52 11 21 21 state of pla
4 3 2 14 3 7 17 0.59 9 19 19 rambo
5 7 5 6 2 12 8 1.47 17 18 13 darkness
5 8 1 4 8 13 12 0.90 14 13 13 c sett
6 3 4 7 7 9 14 0.76 13 14 18 p legacy
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18 k blade
6 6 5 6 6 12 12 1 17 17 17 c building
3 6 4 8 6 9 14 0.67 13 18 18 butlers ca
1 9 5 10 3 10 13 0.76 15 24 18 s vic
This is not the dodage index it is based on the female side of the pedigree and previous national winners show strong patterns.
summing up darness c sett char build and s vic
can’t and won’t win quote me on this after race.
state of play and rambo would have more classic points than the last 17 winner’s.
on these figures i like butlers cabin and kil blade.
if there are any other horses you would like me to profile let me know.”
I think it would help if you explained what all these numbers mean!
#383
March 22nd, 2009 11:10
Hi TC,Don’t worry about TTM just lay Hot Weld and sit back and draw your money.We all can’t agree on the nat winner as RAMBO would go off at odds on!!!Bring it on!!
#384
March 22nd, 2009 11:11
Guys,
I like to allow the posts on here to flow without too much intervention but I’m becoming concerned at a few of the posts we’ve had in the last few days and I would ask you all to think about the tone and content of your posts as we run up to the big race.
I’ve deleted one post where a journalist was labelled “an idiot” for his views – we simply can’t have stuff like that on here. People are entitled to their opinions but we have to be very careful with regards to lible laws etc so I would ask that you continue with the reasoned arguments but try not to get too emotive.
Also, I’m concerned about comments such as:
RAMBO is a racing certainty
Rambling Minster and Character Building wouldn’t win the National between them even if they were the only two running
I’ve left these comments on the site for the time being but they aren’t the kind of comments we want to encourage.
This is the Grand National we are talking about and whilst we are encouraging people to be confident about their selections and to tell us the reasons why they are confident you cannot be “a racing certainty” in any race let alone the Grand National. This is a race over 4 and a half miles with a huge field and enormous fences – please be realistic. The majority of us using this site may be able to discern what is meant by these comments but we are also trying to appeal to the novice punter, the once a year Grand National gambler and we don’t want to suggest to them that it is simply a case of putting your money on Rambo and then waiting to get paid out.
Conversely, we don’t want the type of negativity displayed in the second comment either – you cannot be 100% sure that those two horses won’t be involved in the finish of the National, you may not fancy them and please tell us why not but please keep the language objective.
We are immensely appreciative of the amount of work put in by our contributors – I’m just asking that new people to the site would continue to be impressed by the reasoned arguments that have been a feature of the site since we first went on line.
Thanks a lot
Admin
#385
March 22nd, 2009 11:35
re: The Turf Mould – Hot Weld and stablemate Nine de Sivola were at Aintree this week for a photocall to coincide with a lunch thrown by sponsors John Smith’s for members of the media covering the event. To describe it as ‘schooling’ is pushing it. Gentle workout up and down the home strait more like.
He may have sniffed a spruce fence or two, but he didn’t jump any.
A couple of horses are wheeled out each year for the same event – usually from Northern stables such as Ferdy Murphy’s in North Yorkshire. For instance, Carrie and Richard Ford brought along Forest Gunner in 2005 from their Cheshire stables.
It gives the press an opportunity to take a few snaps of horses cantering past the grandstands while journalists interview trainers, etc. Ferdy is a regular at the event along with Donald McCain.
It’s a way of creating a news angle for the assembled journalists and giving the publicity a lift. Read nothing into it.
But, Turf Mould, if you believe Hold Weld will win the GN 2009 and you’ve backed up your belief with hard cash, good luck to you. I don’t.
#386
March 22nd, 2009 11:39
My bad admin. Apologies for the ‘idiot’ comment. Wouldn’t do it at anybody on this site, was merely at a tipster making people pay for his tips when in my opinion and most others on here he is going the total wrong way about it. But I understand your concern
Ells
1
#387
March 22nd, 2009 12:46
I’d just like to add that i found this website last year and have enjoyed the banter and analysis and the characters posting on it ever since.
This is the best website on the net and i hope that it continues for many years to come.
Thanks to All contributers and lets keep this site Fun !!!
Above all lets pool our knowledge and hopefully have the winner come April 4th.
Cheers Mike
#388
March 22nd, 2009 13:26
now that graham lee has been declared the jockey for killebeggan blade i feel more than ever he will be a very strong candidate for the frame.possibly 3rd behind rambling and sop.
#389
March 22nd, 2009 13:58
Has anyone bothered to do the winner predictor on here, every time i do it i cannot place State of Play, so i thought i’d look into him in a bit more detail, i know he runs best fresh but the last horse to be placed with a lay off as close to his was Kingsmark in 2002, who hadn’t raced for 111 days (the next being Philson Run in 2007 with 55 days), thats as far back as i bothered to research, it seems horses with long lay offs don’t get placed that often, with his weight rising as well. Most horses that have been placed in recent history have recent within 4-5 weeks of the GN. I’m beginning to go off him NOW and think Kilbeggan may be worth a place in top four
#390
March 22nd, 2009 14:57
Somebody put up a post on horses who are well in compared to there current ratings but i can’t seem to find it. Could they please post it again. Was just reading how cod was 11ib better of than his rating after the eider. So it would be interesting to know which are horses are better off if in the weights with their current rating.
Thanks in advance
#391
March 22nd, 2009 15:03
agreed tc – the winner predictor tool is very informative and narrows it down using the main trends to – character building,rambling minster,darkness ,kilbeggan blade , southern vic and lami
#392
March 22nd, 2009 15:57
Gammers Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 11:17 AM
Way, way back on the old thread I posted about horses who were ‘well in’ at the weights and those who had been clobbered by the handicapper. Given that most have had their final prep run by now, I thought it might be useful to update the current position based on the new ORs from yesterday vs GN OR:
Horses well in:
Darkness 8 lbs
My Will 8 lbs
Rambling Minster 6 lbs
Character Building 5 lbs
Roll Along 5 lbs
Snoopy Loopy 4 lbs
Irish Invader 2 lbs
Offshore Account 2 lbs
Southern Vic 1 lb
Big Fella Thanks 1 lb
Horses clobbered:
Butlers Cabin 13 lbs
Chelsea HArbour 8 lbs
Hear The Echo 8 lbs
Priests Leap 7 lbs
Stan 6 lbs
Hot Weld 6 lbs
Tumbling Dice 6 lbs
Reveillez 4 lbs
Golden Flight 4 lbs
L’ami 4 lbs
Horses carrying between 1-3 lbs more than current mark; Snowy Morning, Ollie Magern, Comply or Die, Mon Mome, Hobbs Hill, Fundamentalist, Battlecry, Fleet Street, Can’t Buy Time, Always Waining, Himalayan Trail.
Please Note: This analysis only covers the top 47 horses in the revised list of 88.
That was the list Johnny. I’ve used this too. Nice work Gammers.
Ells
1
#393
March 22nd, 2009 16:14
“TC says:
March 22, 2009 at 1:58 PM
Has anyone bothered to do the winner predictor on here, every time i do it i cannot place State of Play, so i thought i’d look into him in a bit more detail, i know he runs best fresh but the last horse to be placed with a lay off as close to his was Kingsmark in 2002, who hadn’t raced for 111 days (the next being Philson Run in 2007 with 55 days), thats as far back as i bothered to research, it seems horses with long lay offs don’t get placed that often,”
Last ten years:
Mely Moss, 2000 (2nd) – over 300 days
Kingsmark, 2002 (4th) – over 100 days
Clan Royal, 2004 (2nd & unlucky loser) – over 100 days
#394
March 22nd, 2009 16:23
So that’s 3 horses in the last ten years that have been placed after more than 99 days off the track
During that period 30 horses have run in the race without a run in the previous 99 days
That’s a 1 in 10 conversion rate, which is no different to the the number of places up for grabs (4) divided by the number of runners (40 in the average year)
But the last 10 winners had all run within 42 days of the race
#395
March 22nd, 2009 16:32
hi guys, been reading this thread with interest, some great info posted which is very much appreciated! just a quick question regarding betfair – on the GN NTF market i’m guessing that NTF means not to finish?
#396
March 22nd, 2009 17:02
Excellent research Pablo. So it would appear what is against State of Play is the weight rather than the days off the track.
#397
March 22nd, 2009 17:34
Interesting comment about days since last run. But days since last run is a stronger trend than weight carried. Only one horse since 1960, (Specify 71, 12 weeks) has won the GN who has not raced within 8 weeks of the race while in the same time there has been eight winners who have carried 11 stone or more to victory. The point has been made time and time again about lots of different horses who have won 3 miles chases fresh but try and find a winner of 4 mile chase who hasn’t ran for more than, say, 60 days.
#398
March 22nd, 2009 18:08
Three horses i haven’t backed are My Will , killbeggan Blade and Southern Vic. Would be interested in comments on these three horses, to complete my Grand National selections. Keep reading how This has been My Wills target all season. can he win ?
#399
March 22nd, 2009 18:18
haha exactly the same as me Superswinger. Altho my unbacked list also contains Butlers Cabin. For my 2 cents I would say My Will is too high and ran a tiring race at Cheltenham. Kilbeggan Blade I fear just won’t be good enough, but could place. And Southern Vic does worry me only slightly and I do plan to have a little saver just to cover my stake. But if you watch him at the end of his last run – all out, pretty much walks over the line.
Ells
1
#400
March 22nd, 2009 18:24
All Kilbeggan Blade’s best form on right handed tracks as well.
#401
March 22nd, 2009 18:25
I thought it would be great having 1 or two outstanding horses in the field, but then you find yourself putting cover bets on half a dozen more because it seems too easy to only have one or two against the field. Clutching at straws to cover my backside i think !!!
need to keep the faith and stop betting on half chances/not quite fit the stats horses !!!
#402
March 22nd, 2009 18:30
KB is the one that concerns me as its name seems to be getting chucked around alot not just here?? i have a small bet on him main ones being
rambo , character building , darkness and butlers cabin (backed early on)
im sure in the next two weeks fear will get the better of me and an extra few quid will go his way.
#403
March 22nd, 2009 18:34
bet365 now non runner no bet on the grand national !!
#404
March 22nd, 2009 18:47
Thanks for putting that up Superswinger. Time for some risk-free topping up!!!
#405
March 22nd, 2009 18:52
Thanks for putting that up Superswinger. Time for some risk-free topping up!!!
that extra s you put in my name completely changes the context The Stayer, hope the wifes not reading this lol.
#406
March 22nd, 2009 19:26
Ha Ha. Just something i’d heard on the grapevine mate.
#407
March 22nd, 2009 20:01
Just been watching replays of Rambling Minsters races.
The Horse oozes class.
Does anyone know where to watch these races for free getting fed up of paying 20p a time on racing post.
#408
March 22nd, 2009 20:05
TOM GEORGE has booked Graham Lee to ride Kilbeggan Blade in the Grand National. Lee tasted National success on Amberleigh House in 2004 and George said:”The National has always been the plan since he won at Sandown in December,” said George.”He runs best over fences when he is fresh on the back of a hurdle run. He’s a great jumper and a run over hurdles just gets him fresh and buzzed up for it. Graham Lee will ride him and he has won the race before and knows his way around there.”
#409
March 22nd, 2009 20:05
For what its worth my imput-
rambo 6 (enough said)
my will 5 (my class horse)
killy blade 4 (dark horse)
character building 3 (wife,s horse,got winner last 2 years)
chelsea harbour 2 (beer goggles)
offshore account 1 (outsider)
NEW TOTALS
Rambling Minster 170
Character Building 88
State Of Play 77
Darkness 47
Butler’s Cabin 39
Kilbeggan Blade 41
Southern Vic 31
Brooklyn Brownie 22
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 7
Hot Weld 3
My Will 8
Offshore Account 4
chelsae harbour 2
Big Fella Thanks -1
Still reckon too many are writing off MY WILL too soon,was not even 100% for the gold cup.Ideal result for me would be rambo from my will. I really need to put my wife in her place.
#410
March 22nd, 2009 20:13
its the weight for my will now if snoopy loopy and nozic drop out plus he’s french !!!
2 strikes against it
#411
March 22nd, 2009 20:35
Hi Admin,Im very sorry for my message on the blog saying that RAMBO is a cert as it was meant as a joke and im sure that most people that read my full message would have realised this.Im deeply sorry but ‘I WIll Be BACk’ Keep up the good work ADMIN.
#412
March 22nd, 2009 20:56
Hi all. Great blog many thanks to all for all hard work. I justwonder about excluding a horse because it has previously completed in the race (but not if it has fallen). Im thinking here of cornish sett.Last year i believe he would not have fitted stats as no top 5 hennessy etc. but now he does apart from having finished in last years race(when he didnt fit stats). Some would say hes had his chance but I think theres little doubt that hes much improved this season and it would seem rash to discount him just for being a better horse than he was last year.
#413
March 22nd, 2009 21:40
I find this all a little bit strange…..
Wacky calls his horse that he fancies a dead cert and admin pulls him over the coals for it, i for one am not offended in the slighest, dead cert is a racing term.
We are all over 18 we have our own opinions on this race and the fact that Wacky makes his known very strongly is fine in my book.
If a blogger calls the horse that he fancies a dead cert would it make me believe him and go and put my house on it ….er…well know i have been betting many years like us all and i don’t think this would be the case with anyone.
Wacky has contributed to this thread and many others not only this year but last year also and is a lively contributor and has made the French debate and others very funny and humorous…..
I find it very sad that he feels the need to apologise for his comment which i feel is no way offensive or misleading either way to anyone of us.
We are adults here and comments like dead cert are not going to make anyone go and bet on a horse based on the comment…..in a round about way we have all been saying what a good thing Rambo is just look at the poll we have all been adding our fancies too Rambo has not been out the 1st 2 either 5 or 6 points every time he is so far ahead in the poll that we have all made him look a dead cert, should we all apologise?
Don’t want to hark on about it but it is folk like Wacky,systems,pablo,stephen and all the others that are on the endless list that make this forum and this site what it is and i just think it is plain wrong for such a trivial thing to have even been brought up.
If anyone was offended or misled by Wackys comment and placed money on his dead cert then he i am sure will refund all losing bets after the race
#414
March 22nd, 2009 21:54
Hopefully there won’t be any refunded bets needs when Rambo Romps Home
I agree with your point Puzzled but I can understand admins reason for bringing it up. Don’t think they were intending to ‘tell anybody off’ or expecting apologies lol. Its fine for us, we all know about racing and we know Wacky. But for novice punters using this site, phrases like that might mislead them into backing a horse they wouldn’t otherwise back (I think this is the point admin are trying to make).
Lets keep it all friendly guys
Thanks admin for having this site and providing the environment for such discussion. And thanks bloggers for making it a lively environment.
Getting a little nervous now. Really hope Rambo does the business.
Ells
1
#415
March 22nd, 2009 22:29
MY WILL has now dropped to 8s with ladbrokes and more important has has shortened to 4/7 with skybet for ruby walsh to ride.I would be thrilled if he was to ride because he has gotta be worth that extra few pounds that he is over that 11st mark.
#416
March 22nd, 2009 22:34
pablo to try and explain the figures i would have to write a book.
All i can say is that one of the final qualifiers in the last 20 years have won the race.
The stats are based on breeding 1900 and before.
I no it sounds crazy but it does narrow down the field.
This years qualifiers best chance top to bottom are
kilbeggan blade
brooklyn brownie
butlers cabin
Himalayan trail
rambling minster also qualifies but you would have to go back 17 years for a winner to have his profile.
#417
March 22nd, 2009 22:41
Are those the only 5 qualifiers?
Why don’t Comply Or Die and Silver Birch qualify as previous winners of the race?
#418
March 22nd, 2009 22:53
REDRUM – where did you get those numbers from, i’d love to have a crack at working it out. More than happy that Rambo has the same profile as Party Politics
Where did previous winners come on that
#419
March 22nd, 2009 23:02
Rambo would have an excellent chance in a two horse race although I wouldn’t agree he’d be a dead cert, though.
To give due credit to Admin, the site is deserving of critical and useful debate, so although my earlier comments were a little ‘tongue in cheek,’ they were designed to challenge what seems to have become a done deal.
The stistical analysis carried out is very commendable and I am genuinely impressed with the thought processes and dedication. The potential risk with it becoming the key focus is that a number of factors have recently altered the importance of longer term statistics and these main factors are as follows.
1 The modification of fences to reduce falls.
2 The increase in prize money way above the Gold Cup prize
3 The current era of such great Gold Cup horses.
4 The “concertinaring” of the weights over the past three years to encourage class horses to run.
5 The aim for ground on the easy side of good and no firmer.
I should imagine that if an owner and/or trainer has a horse that is just short on the class required to reach Gold Cup level, they are likley to aim that horses entire career towards a shot at the National, now that the factors as aforementioned encourage their participation.
Given this approach, horses like Darkness and Offshore Account might have a great deal up their sleeve, despite their coming back from injuries. Form is important, but class and unexposure are even greater weapons. Comply or Die is a classic example of this.
Also, I think most of us would not give Rambo nor CB much of a chance against a very fit War of Attrition, given the stone or so difference in weight, if the race was over three miles two. If CB couldn’t get near Denman in the Hennessy when 2 stone lighter on soft ground, it brings WofA into the picture if he can stay and he gets good ground.
As for Hot Weld, well he’s not weighted much differently to Rambo on HW’s Scottish National win. He’s a year younger and may have improved. If Ferdy Murphy runs him, he would have a chance.
I would welcome people’s thoughts….
#420
March 22nd, 2009 23:08
I quite like Kilbeggan Blade as a horse and he does meet a lot of stats, but a few things worry me with regards to the National.
- All bar one of his 8 career wins had the word “soft” in the going description. His one win on good ground was a poor novice hurdle race.
- Quite possibly related to this is the fact that all bar one of his 8 wins have come in the months October, November, December and January. His best form seems to be in the winter when there is juice in the ground. He’s never won a race in March or April and the race he won in May was on soft ground.
- He has been pulled up in all three of the Class 1 races that he is contested.
Unless the ground comes up with some serious give in it, I just don’t think he will be quite good enough.
#421
March 22nd, 2009 23:22
The Turf Mould,
Interesting comments. I doubt any of us sees Rambo winning as “a done deal”. Even previous National winners can come to grief over those fences (Hallo Dandy and Corbiere for example) and horses can be brought down or carried-out by loose horses. But even if you push the stats aside he does seem appear to be a very likely winner of the race. He jumps well, has won over 4m, appears to be in the form of is life and is 6lbs well-in as a result. He goes there with a fighting chance. Instead of posting things like “he would have a great chance in a two horse race”, it would be more useful to state why you think he can’t win, or why other horses are preferred – we might all learn something that way.
With regards to Hot Weld, looks like Graham Lee has passed the horse over and he could well be heading to Ayr instead of Aintree. He’s a decent horse but hasn’t really showed much on his two comeback starts – PU, PU. The comments in running from those races highlight jumping errors and him not travelling well. He can’t be backed with any confidence.
Further up we debated Darkness. Again, another decent horse and some people are quite keen on him. Some of us weren’t too keen given his very poor shows in big fields and he also has the tendancy to hit one, though to his credit he’s never fallen.
Hope this helps.
#422
March 22nd, 2009 23:40
War Of Attrition is a Gold Cup winner. Fair play to him. I don’t think RM or CB could win a Gold Cup. But the two races are totally different. The National is a stamina test and plenty of classy horses have tried to win it and failed. I personally believe that RM and CB are horses that have more going for them in this race than an ex Gold Cup winner coming back from injury with more weight and being unproven at the distance. Run a race over 3m 2f at Cheltenham and yes, WOA would more than likely be the pick. Run a race over 4m 4f at Aintree and I’d go for RM and CB every time.
And with regards Hot Weld he is a hard one to make a judgement on. Based on his best form he obviously comes into it. But coming back after such a long lay off with two pulled up performances isn’t the ideal prep for a National. Systemsman put up the useful stat about a horse having two or more no finishes next to his name in the season of the National is a no go. You have to take an awful lot on faith with him and from my point of view I cannot put either of these horses above two bang on form proven stayers on low weights.
Hence why I assume the bookies rate CB and RM ahead of WOA and HW.
#423
March 22nd, 2009 23:48
“1 The modification of fences to reduce falls.
2 The increase in prize money way above the Gold Cup prize
3 The current era of such great Gold Cup horses.
4 The “concertinaring” of the weights over the past three years to encourage class horses to run.
5 The aim for ground on the easy side of good and no firmer.”
These all have some logic to them but can they be proved?
Last 10 years = 391 runners of which 132 finishers (34%)
Runners with OR of 150+ over last 10 years = 47 runners of which 15 finishers = 32%
Runners with OR of 150+ over last 3 years = 20 runners of which 5 finished = 25% (Hedgehunter came second, no other placed runners)
Would not suggest that horses are finding the National easier or that so-called class horses are doing better
The record of staying chasers carrying >11 stone at GN is still pretty dire
#424
March 23rd, 2009 04:13
Falls ( only )- Last 18 winners,
6 x 0 Falls
9 x 1
1 x 2 – Red M.
1 x 3 – Royal A.
1 x 5 – Rough Q.
Admin have put UR’s in as falls in the Analysis Tool, so the above would now read -
4 x 0 Falls
8 x 1
4 x 2
1 x 3
1 x 5
Only 4 winners had UR’s. 3 had 1 and 1 had 2.
#425
March 23rd, 2009 04:55
REDRUM – I’m intrigued by your numbers and like the look of the list which holds my 3 current GN bets. But your comment “The stats are based on breeding 1900 and before” sounds a little out of date! Can you not give us a more rounded explanation on what the figures relate to? Any numbers with a 20/20 stat need to be understood further.
#426
March 23rd, 2009 08:41
Red Rum
Would be interested to know where the Strong Gale horses rank in your list:
War Of Attrition
Hear The Echo
Offshore Account
Fundamentalist
Darkness
Southern Vic
Also one with Strong Gale that won over 4 miles (but clearly not entered this year):
GVA Ireland
And ones for the future:
Russian Trigger
Hold The Pin
Any feedback gratefully received.
#427
March 23rd, 2009 09:16
Let’s not lose sight of the fact this is a handicap.
Ideally, all of the horses would be weighted such that they will finish in a dead heat.
In a typical National Hunt Chase run with a small field, it’s possible horses fail to run to their best ability and therefore results are unpredictable. But in the Grand National, with 40 runners, you are more likely to get horses running to their best ability than in any other contest. This is because the prize is so large and there is a maximum size field taking part. Be in no doubt, they are all trying.
The winner is going to have to run better than their handicap. If any of you play golf, it is the equivalent of 40 amateur golfers taking part in an 18 hole stableford competition. The winner is almost certainly going to score more than 36 points.
What we are looking for, are horses who are capable of running above their handicap mark.
Someone made the point in an earlier post about Character Building being unable to beat Denman in the Hennessy when in receipt of 26 lbs. Don’t forget, Denman finished the season on a handicap mark 21 lbs higher than his Newbury run, so he was arguably a good stone well in at the time of the Hennessy.
Gammers posted a list of the horses with big handicap variances between their GN weights and their current ratings. This is an extremely valuable piece of information. Do you really think Butlers Cabin is capable of turning around a 13 lbs deficit against 39 other runners?
Last year’s winner Comply Or Die, was a horse that had been rated as high as 148 after finishing placed in the Hennessy of 2005, before being dropped to 139 after missing a season. After his Aintree win, he was revised to a rating of 154, so clearly he was ahead of the handicap.
So for anyone looking at the form, keep asking yourself the question “Is this horse capable of running better than the handicap it’s been given for this race?”
On a final note, thank you and well done to everyone who contributes to the forum. I have found the posts objective, the reasoning substantive and the debate healthy. One small criticism however; I feel the continual update of a league table that shows Rambling Minster the runaway leading fancy of the forumites has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And for the record, yes I have backed him!
#428
March 23rd, 2009 09:38
I have studied the winners since Mr Frisk in 1990 and scored each runner since 1999 on 20 attributes (breeding, class, season’s form, best form, weight, handicap, number of falls, wins, distance, days since last run, performance last time out etc etc).
Each attribute is scored on a sliding scale – so, for example, for class of race – winners of a Class 1 race get 2 points, winners at Class 2 level get 1 point and horses that haven’t won at Class 1 or Class 2 level score 0.
A horse can still make it to the top of the ratings set to carry 11’10 or not having had a run for over 100 days – nothing is ruled out on the basis of one indicator.
All winners since 1990 scored at least 31 points (and since 1999 have at least 33 points) – with the exception of Red Marauder, who scored 29 points – hopefully this will be the exception that proves the rule!
Produces a list of around 6 runners per year. This year’s qualifiers:
2009
37 Rambling Minster
36 Black Apalachi
34 Southern Vic
32 Kilbeggan Blade
31 State Of Play
31 My Will
Thinking about adding Kilbeggan Blade to my bets – but I still have my doubts about this one. My Will and Black Apalachi probably have too much weight now, possibly State Of Play too (might lay off some and stick on Kilbeggan).
Also Gingembre won the Scottish National after 84 days off – so perhaps not looking so bad for SOP and Parson’s Legacy backers after all.
#429
March 23rd, 2009 09:49
Oedipe
Totally agree – one of the best pieces of information for me is Best RPR – GN rating. This shows how far ahead of the handicap a horse is if it were to run to its best.
Allied with the information about when this best performance occurred (ideally within the last 12 months, expecially if within the past three months – although Papillon produced his two years earlier) and you can see who is likely to run to their best.
But have to take into account ability to get trip, safeness of jumping and going etc etc.
#430
March 23rd, 2009 09:50
Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but Bet365 have gone NRNB
#431
March 23rd, 2009 09:52
MY 6 SELECTIONS FOR 2009 JOHN SMITHS NATIONAL
1 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
2 SOUTHERN VIC
3 RAMBLING MINSTER
4 HOT WELD
5 KILBEGGAN BLADE
6 DARKNESS
#432
March 23rd, 2009 09:54
I agree with Pablo about higher rated/big weight carrying horses and, for what it’s worth, in my opinion it is because of the modification to the fences that was made after 1989. I think this has hindered big weights and not helped them because the National, on comparative going pre 1990, is now run, on average, something like 15/20 seconds faster thus making it, even more than it already was, a test of stamina.
Pre 1989 big weights occasionally won/ since 1990 they don’t. Pre ’89 only three GN’s were ever run under 9 minutes 20 seconds. Since ’90- Mr Frisk, Party Politics, Esha Ness in void, Royal Athlete, Rough Quest,Lord Gyllene, Bobbyjo, Papillon, Silver Birch, Comply Or Die have all won in a time of less than 9 minutes 20 seconds.
#433
March 23rd, 2009 10:03
To last post I meant to say that a relatively high cruising speed, as has been mentioned here before, is as vital as the stamina aspect.
#434
March 23rd, 2009 10:05
been looking and looking at kb as deep inside i know full well this is the one thats gonna sting me if i dont back it ………… just looking at his past runs on rp website he seems to run out of fuel at 4 miles??
#435
March 23rd, 2009 10:10
hi guys, amazing site. Have been checking in each day since before xmas and thanks to Silver Birch I think, I got on Rambo at 150s on Betfair, only a small bet though. Backed CB too at good odds as was mentioned by the girl on the ‘morning line’ last year. WoA I saw was tipped in a sunday paper and I would have in previous years backed this but thanks to everyones opinions on here I now have an understanding of all the factors involved in racing.
PS my birthday on the 4th so hopefully will be a good night!
#436
March 23rd, 2009 10:10
Hi Admin – thanks for the continual great work
How about setting up a GN 2009 Champion Tipster competition – possibly next week sometime / nearer the time of the race ? – where all of the contributors are given a 100 point bank to distribute across 4 horses on the race (4 “bets” – 1 40 Pt, 1 30 Pt, 1 20 Pt, 1 10 Pt……win or each way……with the odds determined, like the 10 to Follow, by the SP)
Nothing financial……just bragging rights for a year and the title of “WHO’S THE DADDY ?!”
Rules : Simple – 1 entry each (and we’d have to trust each other not to enter more than one) – biggest combined SP return wins.
*NB* The reason for the split of the stake across the 4 horses is because we don’t want a load of 100 Pt Win, Rambo entries do we – that would defeat the object of the proposed comp.
What does everyone think ? After all, how much of the fun of following racing/punting is having one’s judgment proved correct (usually, of course, against the “enemy” bookies !!) against others rather than purely for financial reasons ?
If anyone thinks this is a good idea or want to suggest a few “tweeks” to the basic concept above, please respond / feel free.
#437
March 23rd, 2009 10:30
Red Rum
Also would be interested in Irish Invader
This one appears to have a high cruising speed (see Crisp’s post)and a stamina-related (Busted) pedigree
How does this one rate using your mysterious Victorian breeding formula?
#438
March 23rd, 2009 11:32
PABLO WITH REGARDS TO COMPLY AND DIE AND SILVER BIRCH. THE GENERAL STUD BOOK FOR THEIR DISTANT DAM LINES ARE MISSING.
I MUST ADMIT THAT I HAD NOT BACKED EITHER OF THOSE HORSES DUE TO THAT FACT.
I HAD THEM DOWN HAS A QUESTION MARK BECAUSE IT WOULD BE DOWN TO GUESS WORK FOR THEM TO QUALIFY.
BUT HAS PREVIOUS NATIONAL WINNERS YOUR RIGHT TO INCLUDE THEM IF YOU WISH.
MARK I WILL TRY AND EXPLAIN THE FIGURES WHEN I GET MORE TIME.
#439
March 23rd, 2009 11:39
Sorry if already posted, but for info the following enetered in the Topham;
Character Building – Definite GN
Brooklyn Brownie – Trainer says GN bound
Stan – Could go for Nakayama Grand Jump
Always Waining – Can see this going for the Topham
Nozic – Could be the alternative if weights going up
#440
March 23rd, 2009 11:40
PABLO WILL ALSO GET BACK TO YOU REGARDING STRONG GALE HORSES
#441
March 23rd, 2009 11:41
REDRUM, Which of this years horses have got a question mark against them?
#442
March 23rd, 2009 12:10
In relation to Southern Vic acouple of points.
I have previously written that Ted Walshe in 2006 said that some day sv would be a national horse.
So I think this race has been the plan for the last few years.
As I said, at his second last run at Fairyhouse he looked big before the race and running left handed did not suit him. – rarely runs in this direction and continuously jumping to the left.
His last run was very good giving a lot weight to Emma Jane – who willie mullins had said would win a big pot this year. He got tired after running slightly free but jumped very well, and was beated 8 lengths.
That run should bring him spot on for Aintree.
TW Papilion in the year he won the race ran
24 Furlongs – 8th
Then 28F – 7th
16F – 5th
17F – 4th
25F – 9
and Finally 24F 3rd. where he ran three weeks before the national.
As you can see it is pretty similiar to SV using short distances to build up speed – which you need to hold a position early in the GN and stamina in the longer races.
He meets nearly all trends and blinkers seem to have had a good effect.
Also Papilon won the national on genuine good groung which he had never won on before.
If TW wants ruby to ride SV, he will be on him. I know one thing for sure Ruby wont go against his old man if Ted thinks that SV has a good chence of winning -they are a very close family.
#443
March 23rd, 2009 12:18
Johnny M,
Think you meant to say
As I said, at his second last run at Fairyhouse he looked big before the race and running RIGHT handed did not suit him.
If running left handed doesn’t suit him then he got no chance at aintree
#444
March 23rd, 2009 12:25
Thanks Brian
sorry for the error
#445
March 23rd, 2009 12:37
I live in the North West and the weather forecast for this week at least looks bleak – rain given everyday for the next 5 – been sleating up here today continuously – know that Aintree does dry out quickly but this sort of weather next week could have an impact on the going – likely to be Good to Soft or worse – will keep you all updated with the local conditions!!
#446
March 23rd, 2009 12:53
There is some comparison of sorts between Papillon and Southern Vic/same trainer, build up granted but don’t forget that Papillon had finished 4th in 97 Irish National as a 6yrold, 2nd in the 98 Irish National and beaten by another GN winner Bobbyjo. Also unplaced in 99 Irish National.
#447
March 23rd, 2009 13:00
For longer range weather forecasts i use http://www.netweather.tv
#448
March 23rd, 2009 13:43
Hi crisp 73,
Papillion was rated 139 when he ran in the grand national. I take your point that his rating was built up over a few years running in big handicaps.
Southern Vic had a rating of 138 after three runs as a novice/6 year old and 147 after 4 runs, with wins in two three mile grade 1 and 2′s.
So going the handicap route was taken from him early – given he would have be lumping huge weights.
I think they have been getting his handicap down since, as they realised SV was never going to be gold cup material.
#449
March 23rd, 2009 13:44
@Ground Dependent: Nice idea, but those of us who have started out on the first stage of GRAND NATIONAL Top 6 TIPS LEAGUE, are now on stage 2 anmd will move to final stage 3 following 5 day dec stage on Tuesday.
I think to run another comp will get us into competition overload, lol.
This has been a great table and it is fascinating to see the changes and developments already from Stage 1 Tips to Stage 2.
At end of Stage 2 (finishes midnight 29th March) I will be posting up analaysis and new table opens up at midnight 30th March.
The final table will have 250 points up for grabs. You will be allocated 100 points for getting the winner and then 50 points for 2nd down to 10 points for 6th place.
ADMIN if you want award a chocolate watch for the Top 6 Tipsters winner that would be great
#450
March 23rd, 2009 13:50
Weather is forecast around 85% – 100% chance of rain ALL WEEK next week in GN……
Kilbeggan Blade…mmmm….
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk714day3;page=6;type=free;ct=17702~Liverpool;sess=
#451
March 23rd, 2009 14:04
2 out of 3 bookies online have now slashed RAMBO to 12s inc William Hill.
He’s edging ahead of CB now into 3rd fav
Think 8s on MW is ridic.
#452
March 23rd, 2009 14:22
OK Showlad – ta for the reply……didn’t want to hijack anything you’re all obviously happy with.
Can you a) tell me where the “rules” are explained ? and b) advise if there’s any chance of an unraced novice hurdler entering or is it a competition for the more experienced handicap chaser ?
#453
March 23rd, 2009 15:10
Can’t have KB because of lack of form in class 1 chases
#454
March 23rd, 2009 15:27
Not too sure what to make of the forecast for next week.
Does the more rain mean i should be happy because it should take Character Building out of the equation?
Or should i be sad because it puts the likes of BA, and KB into the equation?
I haven’t a bet on any of these three as have little niggling doubts about them all.
The joys of the Grand National. The only time of the year i like getting a bad head because it means it so dam close to the off
#455
March 23rd, 2009 15:51
With doubts about the ground…
Anyone considering backing Hot Weld or Parson’s Legacy should do so non runner no bet because you will not get your money back if they don’t run otherwise (including Betfair etc)
Both prefer faster ground and their participation is, for me, in doubt if it carries on raining
#456
March 23rd, 2009 15:59
just looked at the 10 day forecast the one i looked at said for liverpool rain until next monday then the temps increase and tues wed should be dry .
#457
March 23rd, 2009 16:05
Showlad Says:
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:44 PM
“ADMIN if you want award a chocolate watch for the Top 6 Tipsters winner that would be great”
Ground Dependent Says:
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:10 AM
“Hi Admin – thanks for the continual great work
How about setting up a GN 2009 Champion Tipster competition – possibly next week sometime / nearer the time of the race ? – where all of the contributors are given a 100 point bank to distribute across 4 horses on the race (4 “bets” – 1 40 Pt, 1 30 Pt, 1 20 Pt, 1 10 Pt……win or each way……with the odds determined, like the 10 to Follow, by the SP)
Nothing financial……just bragging rights for a year and the title of “WHO’S THE DADDY ?!”
Showlad + Ground Dependent- keep your eyes peeled as we will be running a GN Tipster Competition the week before the big race. I’ll set up a dedicated thread next Monday as no point getting people to give their selections too early. Watch this space……
#458
March 23rd, 2009 16:30
Cheers Admin – look forward to reading all about it
#459
March 23rd, 2009 16:58
Cool
#460
March 23rd, 2009 17:08
Ground Dependent – Just back in and read your post…of course Grand National Top 6 Tipster is open for all on site to enjoy
Here are the rules:
You list your top 6 from 1st to 6th for us all to enjoy and see. Then you award your points – your 1st choice receives 6 points down to 6th choice getting 1 point etc.
Then you add them in and amend the overall table.
Then you post up your results along with new rolling amended table
Here is the updated table with Piking Pirates Top 6 incorporated.
NEW TOTALS
Rambling Minster 174
Character Building 88
State Of Play 77
Darkness 48
Kilbeggan Blade 43
Butler’s Cabin 39
Southern Vic 36
Brooklyn Brownie 22
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Himalayan Trail 12
Offshore Account 10
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 7
Hot Weld 6
My Will 8
chelsae harbour 2
Big Fella Thanks -1
#461
March 23rd, 2009 17:11
Dragonman can you post up link for weather, my link posted up implied wet all way, whereas your says clearing.. Sounds like last year – lotsa rain week before and then it stated to dry out…
btw Anyone know of a REALY reliable weather prediction site, lol?
#462
March 23rd, 2009 17:18
General p[icture seems to be bett,er next week as week goes on (BBC) so me says we’ll end up back at ‘good’ going on the day again.
#463
March 23rd, 2009 17:25
Character could have new rider in National
LEADING Grand National hope Character Building could have a new jockey when he lines up at Aintree a week on Saturday.
Several potential buyers have expressed an interest in the grey since his smooth victory in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham and John Quinn admits that a sale could threaten stable-jockey Dougie Costello’s place in the saddle.
“Dougie rides all my jumpers and I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be riding him, but a lot of things are out of my hands,” the trainer said.
“Dougie rides him if it is left to me, but there are people trying to buy him left, right and centre. He is an obvious contender – I know it is very difficult to win but he has got the credentials.
“If someone buys him and their stipulation is they want someone else then my hands are completely tied. But, to be fair, the current owners’ one stipulation is that he stays here.”
#464
March 23rd, 2009 17:26
If you want a decent weather forecast, surely you cant do better than the Met Office website! Just google Met Office. Surely all the others get most of their info from there.
I wouldnt take too much notice of the 90% chance of rain thing. Whilst it is useful to know, if we only get 2mm on each day for 5 days, then it wont make too much difference. In fact, it would probably just replace the watering. Unless we have a 5 day downpour, I cant see us having another Red Marauder type year.
I am still working on the basis of perfect racing ground, or thereabouts, like we had at Cheltenham. I dont consider many of the leading players to be too dependant anyway.
#465
March 23rd, 2009 18:05
I wonder who the potential buyers are for Character building?
How ironic it would be if JP McManus ended up with him and AP McCoy choosing to ride him.
Do you think given the choice he would choose Character over Butlers? if you are a supporter of Character would you want the champ on him even?
#466
March 23rd, 2009 18:15
I Think weather will come good too.
Anyone fancy compiling a list from out of the main fancies who would love it soft/heavy…?
Post it up then…
#467
March 23rd, 2009 18:23
From memory these wouldn’t mind it soft:
Black Apalachi
Big Fella Thanks
Southern Vic
Rambling Minster (has form although trainer says he prefers better ground)
Chelsea Harbour
Preists Leap
State Of Play (won Hennessy on Soft)
Kilbeggan Blade
#468
March 23rd, 2009 18:29
My Will has form on Soft too
#469
March 23rd, 2009 18:34
has anybody got strong thoughts on irish invader,i have backed him weeks ago at 50s,just as a chancer bet e/w but i am told that paddy from (paddy power is a very close freind of trainer wp.mullins and surprise they are offering very skinny odds now comparesd to the rest bar 1.
#470
March 23rd, 2009 18:39
Good List Pablo.
On a fly weight on that list are SV and KB.
KB would seem to be more of a real threat – with form a definite big question re SV on current runs.
#471
March 23rd, 2009 18:51
Disagree Showlad
Southern Vic almost back to his best form (well handicapped on Grade 1 winning novice form)and jumped well last time out – 3rd with RPR of 157 last time in first time blinkers and more to come – been running pretty well against Black Ap, CH, PL and SM when badly off against them (not uncommon for Old Vics to do well in headgear – COD, BA etc)
Big question mark – will he stay?
If he does stay and the ground is genuinely Good or softer then I really believe he has as much of a chance as anything
#472
March 23rd, 2009 19:34
Hi all, Been lurking for a while and decided to post.
Some extremely interesting posts on here.
For me, the horse that sticks out is Irish Invader. We all know that one of the key stats is that the winner must have won a 3m chase. Well, to my mind, he would have won the Kerry National but for uncharacteristically tipping up 5 out when looking all over the winner.
Grade 3 winner over 2m 2f, has won a 3m hurdle, settles well and generally jumps well too.
Quite happy with the 40′s on offer.
Of the others…Big Fella is only 7, but maybe this is a year too soon. Comply ran his best race since Aintree at Cheltenham. Add Butlers Cabin, Character Building and Rambo to get my top 6
#473
March 23rd, 2009 19:40
REDRUM – Got so many questions to ask over those figures you posted, but obviously they would take a long time to explain, just wondering if there is a website or anything where that info can be obtained. Who was in the top 5 last year and where was CoD on last years list, and whether or not these figures work for other nationals. Think i’ll keep it at that, enough Qs there!
#474
March 23rd, 2009 19:53
dear sir,admin andall respected contributers to this site.
i feel obliged to reply to the turf moulds comments,i have followed this site for sometime now and feel we are working together to help each other,which these days i feel is very rare.
if ttm wants to slate work,isuggest they go to somewhere that may appreciate negative imput.
keep up good work people,
the ends will see who is correct.
communication and debate is the way to go.
any way thatsfar to much effort waisted on that.
roll on sat wk.
happy swatin
#475
March 23rd, 2009 19:56
Pablo, SV’s last run can be described as encouraging from previous very poor recent outings, but I don’t agree it was nearly as sunny as you’re post would suggest. Also that tired but good 3rd placing can’t really see him ‘nearly back to best’ IMHO.
But I do agree he’s going in the right direction, though on evidence of last outing, I would be afraid of the GN 4 1/2 mile marathon in store for him stamina wise – would you?
KB lacking in C1 class, but with soft ground, Graham Lee at the helm, I would fear him more…
But all in the name of friendly banter and good to see many view points…
#476
March 23rd, 2009 19:58
My fancy is Parsons Legacy, fits with a number of the stats.
Any thoughts
#477
March 23rd, 2009 20:00
Nice post Green St
Well said. Happy swattin’ too to yuo.
So interesting now, ain’t it
For me, like many of you I would imagine, it’s topping up on my final top choices, making the savers at a level I’m happy with – and to enable doing all this – laying off a little where I see appropriate.
btw: 5 day decs stage on Monday leaves us with the Top 40 plus the cpl official spares, that’s right ain’t it?
#478
March 23rd, 2009 20:05
yes showlad,afew hoverin on the 40 plus mark.sure to be waitng with bated breath come monday.keep throwin the stats lads.
#479
March 23rd, 2009 20:16
So here’s a good one to throw in to the ring:
War of Attrition being slashed across the bookies board – what do we really make of his chances?
#480
March 23rd, 2009 20:18
for what its worth my dosh is on
rambling minster
kilbeggan blade
darkness
southern vic
butlers cabin
character building,
state of play and black apalachi worry me,toooo
much wait i think/hope
parsons legs prob too dodgy
and hope my will,wont.
so a few there to take off list.
please god i hope will do the job
#481
March 23rd, 2009 20:28
My big wins will come with Rambling Minster, Cornish Sett, State of Play
good savers on Character Building Killbeggan Blade, Darkness, Southern Vic.
#482
March 23rd, 2009 20:29
MY APOLOGIES …. HEREIS WHERE I LOOKED AT A 14 DAY FORECAST
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=LIVERPOOL
#483
March 23rd, 2009 20:30
i liked war of attrition before the weights went up so much and due to go up even more probably will give W O A too much to do methinks !!!
#484
March 23rd, 2009 20:33
We have all been working on this site looking for the winner. Would be interested in horses people strongly believe can get a place at good odds.
For what its worth i reckon Irish Invader.
#485
March 23rd, 2009 20:37
Parsons Legacy!
#486
March 23rd, 2009 20:48
puzzled Says:
March 23rd, 2009 at 6:05 PM
I wonder who the potential buyers are for Character building?
How ironic it would be if JP McManus ended up with him and AP McCoy choosing to ride him.
Do you think given the choice he would choose Character over Butlers? if you are a supporter of Character would you want the champ on him even?
God no, they didn’t seem to get on at all at Haydock, though the ground was probably most to blame. Just don’t think McCoy would get on with the horse don’t think he would respond to McCoy’s physical and aggressive style that well personally. Paul Carberry would be the man to have given the choice, pity he’s still laid up in hospital. Funnily enough I was also wondering today whether it was JP trying to buy a GN winner too. Funnier things have happened.
#487
March 23rd, 2009 20:51
Also forgot to add I don’t see the point of Jocking off Costello he’s a decent jock and seems to get on well with the horse. Nina would also be great jock for CB too.
#488
March 23rd, 2009 21:03
Great Site guys,
My top 4:
1) Rambling Minster
2) State Of Play
3) Kilbeggan Blade
4) Darkness
#489
March 23rd, 2009 21:26
Regarding long shots we think have a chance, I took 170s on Brooklyn Brownie a few weeks ago and am very happy with that, especially as he is now as low as 25/1 with Blue Sq. Having said this, I watched the Grand Sefton again last night and didn’t actually think he jumped the fences that well. It was bottomless though from what I remember so hopefully that is an excuse!
Irish Invader worries me. My head says that I should not back it due to completely unproven lack of stamina. However, there is something niggling away at me…
This site is fantastic and I’ve contributed a few times now but not nearly as often as many of you. The only problem I’ve got is that I’m a man of poor willpower! There is one horse that has been mentioned a lot on here and I’ve always thought it had just a slim chance, but am now almost persuading myself to have a dabble due to favourable posts. That horse is State of Play. Even worse, there is one horse that I didn’t think had a hope in hell but, again, several comments here are turning my head. That horse is Southern Vic
Nightmare. Someone start the race before I back any more. Incidentally the horses I’ve backed are, in order of biggest win downwards are:
Rambling Minster
Brooklyn Brownie
Knowhere
Fleet Street
Always Waining
Kilbeggan Blade
Darkness
Mon Mome
Parsons Legacy
The Fleet Street & Always Waining are wasted bets but are misleading as were only about £4 at huge odds. Mon Mome and Knowhere may seem wasted bets but they are 2 of my favourite horses so had to back them!
You may or not remember, but a few weeks ago I posted a list showing the percentage of 3m2f+ races where each horse had ‘stayed on’ or basically done best work at the finish according to RP comments. Someone asked If i could update it post-Cheltenham and so that is my next task. May or may not be useful to anyone but will do no harm!
#490
March 23rd, 2009 21:34
biggest win down for me :
rambo
character building
darkness
parsons legacy
kilbeggan blade (yes my concience mugged me)
butlers cabin
state of play
#491
March 23rd, 2009 21:38
Dear Green Street,
given your comments this evening, can I refer you back to my comments dated 22nd March at 11.02pm.
Can you let me know, after reading my comments (22/03), whether you still feel I have nothing positive to contribute to this site.
Thanks….
#492
March 23rd, 2009 21:41
Showlad – agree to differ
I use RPR as my guide not OR – think RPR is more realiable and RPR suggests that SV is very close to best form (3rd in a handicap giving plenty of weight away) – plus positive reaction from arguably the best big race jockey
#493
March 23rd, 2009 21:57
i will try and explain how the figures work that come up with a shortlist for the winner every time. If you go back to the chart i posted you will see what i mean.
Years ago i read a book that suggested the most important part of the pedigree was the female side.The reason being that the female carries the mitochondrial dna.
The author said the dosage index was flawed because of the above.
So he set about analyzing the results of thousands of top class races.
For the winner of every race he noted the female in the pedigree closest to the year 1900.
He then put them into categories of sprinters milers classicwinners stayers and plodders.
a july cup winner would be put into the sprinters category etc etc.
He then had a large list of females from around 1900 that were labeled into the various categories.
So he then knew what distance a horse was likely to acheive.
i will give you an example kilbeggan blade
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18
the six would be sprinter elements
the 1 milers
the 7 classic
the 7 stayers
and the 4 plodders.
the 0.91 is obtained by doubling the sprinters and adding milers and classic =20/by doubling plodders and adding stayers and classic 20/22.
the 14 is total of sprin milers and classic
the 15 is total of milers classic and stayers
the 18 is total of classic stayers and plodders.
the lower the index the more the horse will be a stayer the higher a sprinter.
going back over 20 years i cannot find a national winner with a higher index of 0.91.
most national winners rise eg k blade 14 15 18
You need to look at the figures and exclude horses you don’t think fit the bill.
i will give you the averages for every category and this years runners figures and we can work out who we think best qualifies.
i usually use the figures to concentrate on horses carrying 11-0 stone and below.
averages
3 3 5 7 7 6 14 0.59 11 15 19
this years top 40
nozic 3 2 9 5 4 5 9 0.77 14 14 18
c lane 8 3 4 7 7 11 14 0.92 15 14 18
afist 5 4 4 6 6 9 12 0.82 13 14 16
war of a 5 2 7 9 5 7 14 0.73 14 18 21
chelsea 2 6 4 10 4 8 14 0.64 12 20 18
s morning 4 7 1 7 6 11 13 0.80 12 15 14
knowhere 4 3 4 6 8 7 14 0.58 11 13 18
roll along 6 3 2 6 6 9 12 0.85 11 11 14
c or die not suff info
ollie 3 3 6 5 8 6 13 0.56 12 14 19
stan 6 1 5 9 4 7 13 0.82 12 15 18
black app 4 6 8 5 4 10 9 1.05 18 19 17
hear the echo 0 9 4 8 6 9 14 0.54 13 21 18
priests leap 3 7 3 7 8 10 15 0.62 13 17 18
king johns 5 2 8 5 5 7 10 0.87 15 15 18
my will not suff info
eurotrek 3 4 5 9 7 7 16 0.54 12 18 21
state of play 2 4 5 12 4 6 16 0.52 11 21 21
t dice 3 7 4 8 3 10 11 0.94 14 19 15
big fella 9 2 3 6 5 11 11 1.21 14 11 14
m mome 3 5 8 8 3 8 11 0.86 16 21 19
s birch not suff info
b cabin 3 6 4 8 6 9 14 0.67 13 18 18
hobbs hill 2 3 7 9 5 5 14 0.54 12 19 21
off account 2 4 8 6 5 6 11 0.67 14 18 19
p legacy 6 3 4 7 7 9 14 0.76 13 14 18
reveillez 0 4 5 10 7 4 17 0.31 9 19 22
fundamen 5 2 2 8 8 7 16 0.54 9 12 18
g flight 7 4 2 8 7 11 15 0.83 13 14 17
lami 5 2 6 8 5 7 13 0.75 13 16 19
battlecry 5 6 4 8 2 11 10 1.25 15 18 14
c sett 5 8 1 4 8 13 12 0.90 14 13 13
fleet 6 4 2 8 7 10 15 0.75 12 14 17
musica 6 3 4 9 6 9 15 0.76 13 16 19
can,t buy ti 7 2 4 6 8 9 14 0.77 13 12 18
darkness 5 7 5 6 2 12 8 1.47 17 18 13
irish 4 0 4 5 10 4 15 0.41 8 9 19
r minster 4 3 2 14 3 7 17 0.59 9 19 19
s vic 1 9 5 10 3 10 13 0.76 15 24 18
a waining 9 5 3 4 9 14 13 1.04 17 12 16
hot weld 6 2 4 8 6 8 14 0.75 12 14 18
k blade 6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18
b brownie 3 3 5 12 3 6 15 0.61 11 20 20
c building 6 6 5 6 6 12 12 1.00 17 17 17
c castle 4 3 2 9 7 7 16 0.52 9 14 18
h trail 3 3 9 7 5 6 12 0.69 15 19 21
#494
March 23rd, 2009 22:21
Someone start the race before I back any more – Speedy Seagull. That has to be the most hilarious line this year
‘Staying’ list would be great speedy – please post asap
Pablo I see your point, I just think he hasn’t shown neither the form or stamina to warrant top rating from me yet. But I shall study away…
Last time out 3rd was impressive on fine anlaysis, but would still be worried too much too soon as in proximity to Big Day. However, I have and always will have, a decent saver on SV.
#495
March 23rd, 2009 22:24
Thx for weather link dragonman – it shows NO rain from the Tuesday onwards – should start as prob Good going or at worst (depending what ground you’re hoping for lol) Good/Soft going.
All well for majority of runners then.
#496
March 23rd, 2009 23:01
That’s unbelievable redrum, fair play! Can’t help but notice that there’s 3 horses with not sufficient info though – Silver Birch, COD and….. My Will. 2 of those have something in common, maybe MW about to join them?
Yes I know there’s no basis to that just found it interestin to say the least!!!
#497
March 23rd, 2009 23:06
Red Rum
Difficult to interpret but it appears my main three picks – Rambling Minster, State Of Play and Southern Vic all have double-digit stayer figures – which on the face of it sounds quite good
But maybe not high enough plodder numbers?
Would be interesting to see the figures for previous winners too as a guide
#498
March 23rd, 2009 23:19
RedRum- i Find this intriguing, think i’ve just about got my head around that but where did you get hold of those figures in first place, would you be able to show previous winners as a guide tho.
#499
March 23rd, 2009 23:35
i am not saying silver birch will win but it is possible it will run well. and i still dispute the comments about never having won on anything less than soft (or was it good to soft). I am not sure what a carpet like surface is but if i check the winning times of the last three nationals it certainly doesnt indicate a soft ground win (officially good).
#500
March 23rd, 2009 23:41
i will call my mum tomorrow as she lives there and ask her what the weather has been like. certainly when i called her yesterday to find out her card never arrived she didnt mention any bad weather.
#501
March 24th, 2009 00:01
After much deliberation:
1: Rambling Minster
2: Southern Vic
3: Offshore Account
4: Golden Flight
#502
March 24th, 2009 00:07
what does everyone think of himalayan trail? bought after midlands national win and sent to trainer who won with montys pass. only run either chases on heavy ground or hurdles. looks a decent ew bet for me.
#503
March 24th, 2009 00:22
As promised, here is a rundown of the performance of the horses when racing over 3m2f+ (chases). The figure relates to the % of races run over that distance where the horse has ‘ran on’, ‘stayed on’, ‘good late headway’, ‘ridden out’ etc etc. I have not included horses that have won but have been ‘all out’ but have included them if they have ‘held on well’. If a horse has fallen the figure may or may not have been included dependant on whether or not they were in contention at the time. Obviously this is quite a crude figure as depends how you interpret the write up and pays no attention to class of race, but I see it as a good indicater. I have not listed horses with under 33% and have not listed horses with just one run over the required distance. I would have included any horses with 2/2 but there weren’t any:
1. Hot Weld 100% 4/4
2. Rambling Minster 71% 5/7
3. Eurotrek 60% 3/5
4. My Will 50% 4/8
5= State of Play 50% 2/4
5= Darkness 50% 2/4
5= Himalayan Trail 50% 2/4
8. Silver Birch 45% 5/11
9. L’Ami 40% 4/10
10. Character Building 38% 3/8
11. Kilbeggan Blade 33% 4/12
12. Comply or Die 33% 3/9
13= Snoopy Loopy 33% 2/6
13= Knowhere 33% 2/6
13= Black Apalachi 33% 2/6
16. Chelsea Harbour 33% 1/3
Make of that what you will! You will note that several of these qualifiers are either woefully out of form or have a high weight. Annoyingly one of my ‘worry horses’ is placed quite highly. I WILL RESIST!!
#504
March 24th, 2009 08:05
Brilliant stuff Redrum. Always good to get a different perspective. Too often, when looking at breeding, we look at the parents and little further or even just look for a famous name like Roselier. Perhaps this analysis will give Wacky some ammunition in the (FR) debate? Certainly seems to rule out Black Apalachi, though not Butler’s Cabin.
#505
March 24th, 2009 08:30
Good stuff from everyone. Well done for their posts.
What is interesting to see is that whatever you believe and whatever stats or trends or breeding or performance over 3m 2f+ you look at; Rambling Minster is always there near the top of the pile. So whichever you care to use he is always up there. Which must be a good thing with regards his chances.
#506
March 24th, 2009 09:22
indeed superb posts as usual from everyone involved …. im getting excited now … 11 days to go ……… just hope rambo stands up on the day half of me wants to go to aintree and piggy back him round myself …. wish there was more build up in the media , guess i’ll have to wait till next week for that
#507
March 24th, 2009 09:32
I agree with posts about the Turf Mould. Best we iignore him totally and don’t dignify his first silly post with a reply. We have all worked hard together and been collegiate – but there have been plenty of disagreements. So it is not anything like a self fulfilling prophecy. Personally I have posted at least twice that folks must back a few horses to cover stakes as Rambling Minster could easily be brought down, fall etc. The Turf Mould’s post about Hot Weld on the very day that Graham Lee was booked up to ride Kilbeggan Blade shows just how much he is in the know. My top in order of winning cash are:
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Souther Vic + State of Play (done the same on both every time I backed them)
Darkness
Small covers on Character Building and Reveillez (most likely got little chance but done yonks ago at 300/1 on Betfair)
#508
March 24th, 2009 09:39
intriguing RedRum, thanks.
Speedy – BRILLIANT list. Rambo up there or thereabouts again and also pays tributer to those doing well on Top 6 League – esp those on great weights – KB and Darkness. Also two great long ditsnacers looking to return to form Hot Weld and HT both in list.
byw Conna Castle doubtful but contrastingly Himalayan Trail is reported as his ‘magic returning’ and all systems go for Big Day. Also Golden Flight’s team see GN fences no probs in comparision to his work in le France.
#509
March 24th, 2009 09:47
Are there some people in the know about Southern Vic? Can’t believe how well the horse has been backed over the last week. 16/1 across the board and Hills go as low as 14s. I’m happy enough with my 33s but even as a fan of the horse I think 16s/14s is short enough?
#510
March 24th, 2009 09:55
Totally agree Stayer.
Some nice wins 3 years ago, lots of promise but not proven over distance – now how many horses can we say that about – rather a lot!!! But NONE at 14s. I read through his form time and again and cannot see the justification.
#511
March 24th, 2009 09:58
I think some people may be latching on to the possibility of Ruby riding SV – also the improved performance in blinkers last time out may have increased confidence in the horse. Have read bits and pieces about him preferring soft going – not sure if he will get this but he seems to be well handicapped on his old Class 1 form – I’ve had a saver on him at 22′s – you can still get 18.5-1 on betfair
#512
March 24th, 2009 10:02
Darkness. I haven’t backed it yet seems to be the stand out that goes against the ‘winner profile’ that I’m following. Anyway, it’s been said that he hasn’t won a race in a big field but Bindaree only won a hurdle with 11 runners and Darkness has won two hurdle races with 11/12 runners respectively.
#513
March 24th, 2009 10:12
I am on Southern Vic at 33/1 too Stayer and don’t really fancy it either! It should never be that sort of price and I’d be inclined not to get sucked into it.
#514
March 24th, 2009 10:29
Another one just gone 14s (Betfred)!!
Don’t get me wrong, I do like the horse and thought 33/1 was a decent enough price when the weights came out. I was also encouraged by his last run but he’s no 16s/14s shot on the back of that and I don’t think 20s would be overly generous either. Surely this isn’t real money but the bookies running sh1t-scared of a possible plunge if Ruby were to team up with father Ted, and are shortening in advance?
Crisp,
Fair enough point about Bindaree but he had run well (4th) in the Topham previously and that had 20+ runners. There’s little encouragement to be gained from looking at Darkness’ runs when there have been 20+ runners.
#515
March 24th, 2009 10:52
Stayer, Comply Or Die pulled up in the only race that he contested that had a field of 20 plus runners. Rambling Minster has ran in five races with 20 plus runners and hasn’t been placed in any of them.
#516
March 24th, 2009 11:13
CoD and Rambo may not have done well in large fields previously but it’s probably been down to not being good enough on the day. My worry with Darknees is that once or twice he has appeared to spit the dummy out when things don’t go his way and i’m not sure he’ll enjoy being crowded by 39 other runners. But I accept your point Crisp. At the end of the day he a horse that could win the race but there are a fair few of those and you can’t back them all. This is a possible chink in his armour so I have looked elsewhere.
#517
March 24th, 2009 11:21
Any thoughts on Offshore Account? Seems to be a spring horse for me and living in the Isle of Man I’ll have to be onboard! Should I take 50s now?
#518
March 24th, 2009 11:37
Offshore Account has only had 6 chase runs, which would have to be a big worry, although as I have said before, I think the 9 chase runs stat could be the next to tumble.
Been off the course for nearly 2 years before his recent hurdles run though. Only run of the season that, so it would require a big leap of faith to be expecting him to even run into a place.
I think there are better longshots around this year.
#519
March 24th, 2009 11:41
Does anyone reckon that Rambling Minster has struggled in big fields? Just a coincidence? He’s only finished out of the top 7 four times in his whole career under NH rules. Three of those have been in fields of 20 runners or more.
Darkness has won a 21 runner NH flat race.
#520
March 24th, 2009 11:42
Sorry, correction, Darkness was 3rd in a 21 runner NH flat race.
#521
March 24th, 2009 11:43
I think it’s easy to pick one or two holes in any of the runners and each has its pros and cons
Sure Bindaree didn’t win in a big field but in the run up to his victory he came 5th in the Hennessy and 3rd in the Welsh National
Rambling Minster is an 11 year old which has never placed in 20+ fields – yet he has produced his best performance this year trouncing a 16-strong field in a Class 1 race
Opinions differ and we’ll all have to wait and see
I can’t see Darkness winning for a variety of reasons which I have posted before but many give him a decent chance and he is well handicapped
#522
March 24th, 2009 11:52
Crisp,
May well be a coincidence as might Darkness’ performances in the big fields as well. But he can race lazily and a be a bit temperamental but I don’t think Rambo can be acccused of this. I suppose in general all horses would have a worse record in big fields as the races have more runners and are more competitive than 5-runner novice chases. Maybe we’re looking into this too much?
Cornish Sett,
Daniel’s comments re: Offshore Account are spot-on. His lack of experience (6 chases, most recent of which was UR) is a worry, as is his long break. Not jumped a fence in a race since unseating in Nov ’07 and Could bounce next time.
#523
March 24th, 2009 11:55
CORNISH SETT ID TAKE THE 50′S WITH WILLIAM HILL IF YOU ARE GOING TO BACK IT. APPRECIATE WHAT DANIEL SAYS BUT I BELIEVE ITS WORTH A PUNT RATHER THAN BE DISSAPOINTED IF IT GOT PLACED AND YOU’VE LOOKED AT IT. I TOOK 66′S WITH SKYBET THEY ARE NOW 25′S TAKE THE 50′S WITH HILLS WOULD BE MY ADVISE BEFORE APRIL 4TH PUNTERS JUMP ON THE IRISH HORSES.
#524
March 24th, 2009 11:56
Rambling Minster runs in chases in fields over 20 – is it that bad?
26Jan08 Don 24Gd C1HcChL42K 11-3 6/20 19L, An Accordion[18/1]
Rambling Minster came into the race in decent form, but he�s up in the weights, and this trip on good ground seemed an insufficient test. A race like the Scottish National would play to his strengths better.
21Apr07 Ayr 33GF C1HcChG396K 10-8 PU/23 Hot Weld[8/1]
Rambling Minster was a big disappointment after his earlier exploits this term. Always towards the rear he was pulled up at the 19th.
13Mar07 Chl 25GS C1HcChG348K 10-8 9/23 18½L, Joes Edge[8/1
Also hampered was Rambling Minster, who had never been closer than when stopped in his tracks. The Agfa Diamond winner merits being rated considerably better than the bare form, as he made a mistake at the first fence and then found himself in the rear with his confidence damaged.
The Ayr run was disappointing but maybe an off day or didn’t like the ground – otherwise insufficient test or hampered at vital stage
All other 20+ fields in NH flat races or hurdles
#525
March 24th, 2009 12:00
Just because a horse has not run on particular going or over a particular distance, doesn’t mean it will not perform on it. Look at Mickael D’Haguenet at Cheltenham for example. The trainer was convinced this was a soft ground horse, and was concerned about him coming down the hill on quicker ground. The horse proved everyone wrong. Not only did he handle it well, the trainer even remarked the horse adapted it’s running style to suit conditions. Smart animal!
When a horse encounters going conditions or distance that it has tackled before with a successful outcome, it gives strong reason to believe those factors will not be an inconvenience.
Running a horse over a trip or going that it has consistently failed at before is a negative, whereas trying it for the first time is simply an unknown.
#526
March 24th, 2009 12:21
For those looking for a more positive assessment of Offshore Account, I offer the following.
In his novice chasing season, this horse was on a par with Snowy Morning. He finished that season with a 4-timer, culminating in the Novice Champion Chase at Punchestown, with SM 34 lengths back in 4th.
Connections clearly had high hopes for him, as he started the next season in the Betfair Chase (against the very best 3m chasers in training) although he unseated at the 11th.
His next run was over hurdles at the Leapordstown Christmas Meeting. An interesting choice and signs maybe they were already contemplating a Grand National entry (pure speculation on my part).
He’s missed a season (I would assume due to injury) and on his return over hurdles finished
a decent enough 2nd.
He comes into this race on a similar mark to Snowy Morning last season. In 2008, SM ran off a mark of 145. Offshore Account runs this year off 147.
In his next race after the 2008 GN, Snowy went on to reach an OR of 162. Backers of Offshore Account will be hoping there is similar improvement to come.
#527
March 24th, 2009 12:26
crikey whitearab ,, your winning cash bets are frighteningly similar to my own .. we’re either gonna be in seventh heaven shortly after 4 a week on sat or we’ll be crying into our pints in the broken dream arms on sat night
i think himalayan trail is my other big one . he could surprise a few people on the day methinks . whether he will actually win is another question
#528
March 24th, 2009 13:17
Baggy352 says “what does everyone think of himalayan trail? bought after midlands national win and sent to trainer who won with montys pass. only run either chases on heavy ground or hurdles. looks a decent ew bet for me.”
Baggy – I had a bet on HIMALAYAN TRAIL the day the weights were published. I then went off him a bit after a moderate/poor run over hurdles, but I am now prepared to forgive him that (and also overlook the fact that he has pulled up twice this season). Reason being he is considered a ‘spring horse’ and the trainer reports him coming into very good order now.
Other positives:-
Won over 4m2f
In the right range in terms of Official Rating
Perfect weight
Right age
Never fallen
There are probably other good reasons but I’m at work and haven’t got all my info to hand!
In my opinion, there are a lot worse each way shots out there, and I put some more money on a couple of days ago (49/1 on betfair).
#529
March 24th, 2009 13:19
“MONEY continues to pour in for War Of Attrition in the Grand National market, with one leading bookmaker admitting the monster gamble “shows no sign of subsiding”.
The 2006 Gold Cup winner, who has never raced beyond 3m2½f, was widely available at 33-1 for the 4m4f marathon over the weekend but after three days of support is now just 16-1 with William Hill after the firm trimmed him from 20-1 on Tuesday morning.
Kate Miller, spokeswoman for William Hill, said: “Be under no illusions, this isn’t just patriotic money for War Of Attrition as punters are backing him from both sides of the Irish sea.
“He now rates as the second-biggest loser in the book behind favourite My Will, and the gamble shows no sign of subsiding.”
War Of Attrition, currently allotted 11st 6lb, has only six horses ahead of him in the betting for the famous handicap including ante-post favourite My Will, and fellow Irish raiders Southern Vic and Black Apalachi.”
Not really sure why all the money is coming for this one. He will have 11-9 when the top two come out. It seems an awful lot of weight for a horse to cart around Aintree. He obviously has class but it seems a tad ambitious to ask him to win the National. What do others think?
#530
March 24th, 2009 13:32
Hopefully we will be celebrating Silver Birch! I am going to the race and so may not even make the Broken Dream Arms for a pint if Rambling does not at least give us a run for our money! Depression may have set in by then and the wife will be sent out for a take away meal and not the fancy restaurant do I promised her..
As regards War of Attrition – I simply cannot see it at all. As you say Stephen, he will be carrying 11st 8lbs, possibly 11st 9lbs and in my own humble opinion cannot win. He is a classy horse but was off a long time injured after his Gold Cup win and frankly does not look anywhere near as good as he was back then. But I am glad we are hearing positive news about him running as I don’t want the weights to go up much more!
#531
March 24th, 2009 13:36
War of Attrition also won the worst Gold Cup I can remember, so he makes no appeal at 33/1 to me off 11_09, let alone at 16/1!
#532
March 24th, 2009 13:40
“He will have a hell of a lot of weight at Aintree, 11st 6lb probably, and not many win with that weight. He is not a big horse to carry a lot of weight round there.”
No that comment isn’t attributed to War Of Attrition, but Roll Along, by trainer Carl Llewellyn.
In WOA you have a horse running off a mark 17lbs below his Gold Cup winning form two seasons ago. Still only 10 years old with 19 chase starts. How much ability does he have to retain to be one of the best handicapped horses in the field?
#533
March 24th, 2009 13:41
That’s Roll Along out now..
Anyone got data on list so far of all out/doubtful…pls post up
I know that’s Snoopy out, Roll Along.
Stan doubtful, Nozic too etc
#534
March 24th, 2009 13:49
So the weights have gone up another 2lb, which puts My Will above the 11-1 barrier, and State Of Play now sits on that mark.
With Paul Nicholls also not keen on running Norzic off top-weight, it looks likely Cloudy Lane will head the weights as prediected when they were first announced. This would put State Of Play on 11-2, which to me, although I have backed the horse, would be too much!
The other interesting development is the weight of money for War Of Attrition. Undoubtedly he is potentially well handicapped, but can he carry 11-8 or 11-9 over 4m4f and win the National. The answer is no!
#535
March 24th, 2009 13:55
As written earlier
“WAR OF ATTRITION
Wouldn’t qualify ordinarily because of the run within 50 days indicator – exception made however because this horse won the Gold cup after a 79 day lay-off and has performed very well on slower ground than ideal this season – on watered good ground he could go very well if weights don’t rise (different class to My Will) – have a little on and will go in guns blazing if Exotic Dancer turns up”
Unfortunately Exotic not turning up and this has at least 11’8 to carry – well handicapped but too much weight – glad I had a small saver at the time just in case but not interested at these current short prices
#536
March 24th, 2009 13:58
Back to Himalayan Trail – I think the other reason why a case can be made is that it jumped the national fences well in the Becher having been ridden sympathetically by Geraghty – think he finished a respectable 5th on unsuitable heavy going – think he would prefer better ground and does seem to have some similar credentials as Monty’s Pass who won the big race for his trainer – I think Geraghty will ride HT – can’t see anything in Henderson’s bunch – anyone agree?
#537
March 24th, 2009 14:17
Hedgehunter was runner up in 2006, carrying 11st 12lbs.
He ran off a mark of 156, and was only denied by Numbersixvalverde, who was in receipt of 18lbs.
At their best WOA was rated 8lbs superior to Hedgehunter.
Could WOA have reversed a 6 length defeat over 4.5 miles carrying Hedgehunters welter-burden to victory off 156 that year?
#538
March 24th, 2009 14:21
kilbeggan blade is 33′s with VC if anybody wants to back him.
20′s to 25′s with everybody else and 27 on betfair
#539
March 24th, 2009 14:33
as per usual all the horses tightening up in price.
it would be nice to see some of ours drifting
like that will happen lol
#540
March 24th, 2009 14:33
I’ve got everything crossed that BG chooses Himalayan Trail over Golden Flight, as in my opinion there isn’t a better national jockey than Barry. Really hoping for a big run from Himalayan as he’s my biggest winner along with Rambo, at 40/1 just the place money would even be very nice.
Despite his lack of form he seems to come into himself in spring and better ground at Aintree would definitely improve on his Beecher run, and we at least know he can jump round Aintree and likes the place which we can’t say about a few of the other leading candidates.
Mangan is a serious trainer who wouldn’t run a no hoper, he hasn’t been seen with a quality national runner since Monty’s. Of course now I’ve said all this he is going to pull up tailed off after the first circuit
#541
March 24th, 2009 14:36
Oedipe Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Hedgehunter was runner up in 2006, carrying 11st 12lbs.
He ran off a mark of 156, and was only denied by Numbersixvalverde, who was in receipt of 18lbs.
The National is full of these ‘only beaten by one horse’ tales. There is always something lurking lower down the weights to pip a class horse carrying too much weight.
It happens again and again and again. WOA makes ZERO appeal to me. I really thinking people are talking themselves into a hole trying to convince themselves and others that he is a good bet.
#542
March 24th, 2009 14:39
I can see where you are coming from Brody – think BG will take the ride – he rides the coures so well – Slim Pickings runs on top of Monty’s performance spring to mind.
On prices, I have some memories of all horses shortening the week before and then on the morning of the race, the bookies increase the prices to be more competitive, mind you they don’t hold them for very long and before the off, everything has shortened considerably!!
Surprised that the exchange market has been so close with regard to prices at the bookies’ markets over the last few weeks.
#543
March 24th, 2009 14:44
Pure conjecture, but what weight and what handicap mark would a fully fit Denman require before you could say he was a justifiable favourite for this race?
#544
March 24th, 2009 15:13
I agree Daniel that the Gold Cup that WOA won was possibly the worst one in a long time. Especially with Hedgehunter coming 2nd in it. How many National winners have gone on to finish 2nd in a Gold Cup the next year? Not many I imagine.
For me he will have too much weight and may not even last the distance.
#545
March 24th, 2009 15:14
REDRUM – on 21st March you posted your figures for previous GN winners. That was most recent top to bottom right?
And you said no winner has had a higher rating than 0.91 – Hedgehunter?
Lowest rated winner is 0.35. Is it possible to have a rating too low?
Revillez seems to have a great profile but isn’t mentioned in your top 6? Have I missed something?
Sorry for all these questions but these numbers have got me drooling.
#546
March 24th, 2009 15:24
ThaiMark / Red Rum
Must have missed the previous GN winners – will look at it
I also had Reveillez down, plus Eurotrek and Ollie Magern – perhaps I have misinterpreted the numbers – or could be in for a shock
Still I would have thought that this is something else to take into consideration but should not be used at the expense of watching races and form study – would be interesting to see Red Rum’s figures (not the poster the horse) as he was out of a sprinter I believe
Perhaps more useful as a tool to rule out horses than as guide to who has the best figures = therefore who is most likely to win?
#547
March 24th, 2009 15:26
Didn’t mean rule out on the basis of these figures alone – but if there are other reasons too, could be the final nail in the coffin
#548
March 24th, 2009 15:33
You have to laugh you really do……..
Pipe announces that Puntal has been retired and therefore is withdrawn from the national.
As a result Bet365 cut his price and bring him in to 100/1
what can you say?
#549
March 24th, 2009 15:48
What are the bookies doing? Kilbeggan Blade now 25-1 from 33s. Topped up over the weekend so got the bigger price but seems like the value is being ripped out of everything. 8-1 for My Will is lunacy!
#550
March 24th, 2009 15:57
Interesting. The French mare Musica Bella, who I had down as an unlikely runner, looks like taking her chance.
“Musica Bella will touch down in the north-west early next week in her bid to become the first French-trained winner of the John Smith’s Grand National since 1867.
It does not look incredibly likely with Musica Bella’s price ranging from 50-1 to 100-1, but with a current weight of 10st 7lb, her supporters are guaranteed a run for their money.
The nine-year-old has won around Auteuil and Enghien and was teed up for the race by handler Francois Cottin in a valuable hurdle at the start of the month.
“We’re still on target. Obviously things have to go to plan but she will go over to Haydock at the start of next week and travel to Aintree on the day,” said Cottin.
“There are a few more pieces of work for her to do first. We don’t know anything about the trip in the National but she doesn’t lack in stamina and has run over more than three miles before.”
Philip Carberry rides many of Cottin’s horses and asked if the Irishman would be on board, the trainer said: “Possibly. I have been asked about this before and there is an English interest in the horse, so we will just have to see.”"
#551
March 24th, 2009 16:04
Had a look at last year’s race and 20 of the 40 runners were 33/1 or smaller at SP (7/1 co favs)
That takes you down to Brooklyn Brownie on Oddschecker – so it’s not that unrealistic – just seems a bit crazy
#552
March 24th, 2009 17:33
Kilbeggan Blade and War of Attrition both 20/1 now on Coral from 33′s. That is some dramatic fallage. Talk about slice and dice.
#553
March 24th, 2009 18:03
Dear Mr White Arab,
who exactly gave you authority to create a little gang to control who says what on this site. The Administrator had his say on the matter and I have abided by his/her rules since. You may quite legitimately put down Hot Welds chances and I have no problem with that. But since you, Green site and Showlad have backed about 25 horses for the race, you don’t exactly seem sure whats going to win it yourself. You’ve only got 15 horses left to back to make sure you get the winner. How about just making your own comments without getting little gangs behind you and let Admin decide on which content is acceptable.
By the way, Keith Mercer is a very good rider. I do believe he won the Scottish National on Hot Weld!
#554
March 24th, 2009 18:15
Just been catching up with all the poots (so many) while I am on holiday in sunny Bornemouth (sunny every day since Friday).
My advise for whats its worth is:
“Dont panic”
So many people clutching at last minute straws.
I am convinced we have got it right, the winner will comply with the main trends and will be UNDER 11.00. I also think (as I have always done) that the GN winner will be OR 137 to OR 144 (with up OR 146 as a possibility),.
So dont panic I think the top six chart is correct-just pick those that comply with the the above listed below (Rambo down to SV look best, a short list of 6, if you exclude SOP (I do have a saver bet however placed some time ago) will be carying too much weight to win [place possible].
Piking Pirates Top 6 incorporated.
NEW TOTALS
Rambling Minster 174
Character Building 88
State Of Play 77
Darkness 48
Kilbeggan Blade 43
Butler’s Cabin 39
Southern Vic 36
.
.
Brooklyn Brownie 22
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Himalayan Trail 12
#555
March 24th, 2009 18:48
I give up!
Have been getting very confused trying to come up with an alternative to Rambling Minster so have had a day trading on Betfair and now all green on the race rather than covering on a, b or c because of x, y or z
Convinced Rambling Minster available at 40 odd on Betfair before, and at Ladbrokes at 25/1 after, the Haydock race was the best value obtainable on the race this year (some Cheltenham winnings re-invested too)
Sticking with State Of Play and Southern Vic as I think they have the best credentials of the rest, but with reduced positions
Black Apalachi in reserve for the day in case the heavens open – price becoming more attractive on Betfair
Time to sit back and enjoy the build-up to the race and study for the rest of the Aintree races knowing I’ve done my best to find this year’s winner and the result won’t cost me a penny – otherwise going round in circles getting caught up in the media hype and betting circus
Thanks to all for debate, insight etc
Much better to share thoughts on races and be challenged by others than keep them to yourself I think
What I really like about this site is that people share their reasons rather than merely state their opinions, which promotes a genuine debate and has led to some quality research
Good luck with your selections!
#556
March 24th, 2009 18:55
Does anyone know off the top of their head if any bookies are currently going top 5 for a place?
#557
March 24th, 2009 18:56
Paddy Power – but odds a bit skinny in places as a result
#558
March 24th, 2009 18:57
Also Bet365 with non runner no bet
#559
March 24th, 2009 18:59
Thanks Pablo
#560
March 24th, 2009 19:14
WoA was tipped in the ‘News of the World’ at the weekend, think a lot of yearly punters will take note of the tip.
#561
March 24th, 2009 19:26
KJC out….another one bites the dust. See Racing Post online.
#562
March 24th, 2009 19:46
King johns castle also out of the race now, personally I think you have got to be brave and rule out horses carrying over 11st my top six are.
KILBEGGAN BLADE needs cut in the ground
RAMBLING MINSTER solid
CHARACTER BUILDING must have good ground
SOUTHERN VIC interesting
HIMALAYAN TRAIL best on good ground
BROOKLYNN BROWNIE wouldnt want it heavy
as you can see the ground conditons are as ever vital but I think on good/good to soft these horses have the best chances, as I said steer clear of over 11st
#563
March 24th, 2009 20:20
Did anyone manage to take note of the dosage index posted by redrum. Still trying to get my head around head, still trying to find out all the details i need to work a horse’s index out. Did manage to find that Rambo has a number of successful sprint horses in its history, including being distantly related to Curlin. He’s proved he can stay, shouldnt be any problem with him kicking on in th straight – well i hope so anyway
#564
March 24th, 2009 20:21
Systemsman – Just wanted to say how nice it is to hear from you! Really do appreciate all your comments (as well as those by Pablo, Showlad, Crisp, and Wacky et al.) Hope you enjoy the sunshine in Bournemouth.
If it helps anyone at all, I live 10 minutes from Aintree and it has been raining heavily all day.
#565
March 24th, 2009 20:25
Can anyone make a ‘lil sense on Hot Weld?
Cpl days ago trainer reports magic coming back on run around Aintree..now it’s maybe Scottish GN IF magic not back…can anyone make ANY sense of this?
I actually think it all depends on what came from the source in WHAT ORDER. Could have given green light to Graham Lee to ride KB then magic returns AFTER doing so, then goes with his Scottish National winning jockey on Hot Weld…
#566
March 24th, 2009 20:31
ADMIN: Love the site but can you PLEASE make threads open on MOST RECENT page.
Just now on this thread you have to wade through about 16 pages to get to most recent page.
Ta much in advance (if pos), if not no worries.
#567
March 24th, 2009 20:38
btw Anyone with info to hand could you please post up list now as it stands for defo Non-RUNNERS and probable NON-RUNNERS – would be great to have to hand for reference.
#568
March 24th, 2009 20:46
“TC Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Did anyone manage to take note of the dosage index posted by redrum. Still trying to get my head around head, still trying to find out all the details i need to work a horse’s index out. Did manage to find that Rambo has a number of successful sprint horses in its history, including being distantly related to Curlin. He’s proved he can stay, shouldnt be any problem with him kicking on in th straight – well i hope so anyway”
TC – I had a look at it and could see no obvious pattern even amongst the winners – not that would excite the 10/10 or 9/10 trends spotters anyway
The race is over 36f – it is a unique staying challenge and form over 27f or even 30f does not guarantee success at 36f
I guess if a horse has a profile geared more towards the shorter distances it might be seen as a negative, but I’m not sure how to rank horses either way on these measures
#569
March 24th, 2009 20:50
I agree can we ahave a current list of top 40 runners all sites i go to still have horses listed that i know have pulled out
many thanks by the way
i do hope rambling minster comes in been following your ideas of the horse to be on. hope to pick up a tidy sum hope for a new car out of it
many thanks
#570
March 24th, 2009 20:56
Well, off the top of my head…
Non Runners
Snoopy Loopy
Roll Along
King Johns Castle
Probable Non Runners
Nozic
Stan
Maybe Non Runners
Chelsea Harbour (weight?)
Hear The Echo (weight?)
Afistfullofdollars (weight?)
Hot Weld (fitness?)
Any others you guys can think of?
#571
March 24th, 2009 21:12
with them all dropping out due to weight the whole field is wide open again the bottom ones now come into play
#572
March 24th, 2009 21:31
hi all message from wife can anyone enlighten us to which horses thata re left in are GREY i know kjc was so whos left she only backs grey horses (its her money lol)
#573
March 24th, 2009 21:50
Very relieved about KING JOHN’S CASTLE. Don’t want to put a dampener on proceedings but it rang of MCKELVEY last year for me so I’m glad it isn’t going to happen.
#574
March 24th, 2009 21:56
Stephen – I’d take a bet on REVELLEIZ being a non-runner though that only comes from the fact that form was being looked for and never came. CAN’T BUY TIME will surely pull out too. It’s a stuggle for CHARACTER BUILDING as I see it. I hope not though – we have a proper race on our hands if the leading chances are in the race.
#575
March 24th, 2009 22:22
It really wouldn’t suprise me if a lot came out. There are a few out already, a few rumours, and always a couple of unexpected ones next week.
Might even go down as far as Maljimar! Any thoughts on his chances?
#576
March 24th, 2009 22:24
Why do you make it a struggle for Character Building Rascal? Surely if only those three come out – SL, KJC and RA he will still get in won’t he? Or have I counted wrong?
Ells
1
#577
March 24th, 2009 22:26
These are my final bets:
Main bets: £80
£50 win RAMBLING MINSTER 20/1 – Stand to win £1000
£15 win KILBEGGAN BLADE 33/1 – Stand to win £500
£15 win IRISH INVADER 33/1 – Stand to win £500
Savers: £21
£5 win DARKNESS 40/1 – Stand to win £200
£6 win BUTLERS CABIN 16/1 – Stand to win £100
£5 win CHARACTER BUILDING 20/1 – Stand to win £100
£3 win HIMALAYAN TRAIL 33/1 – Stand to win £100
£2 win CORNINSH SETT 50/1 – Stand to win £100
Total: £101
All my main picks are fresh as daisies, are bang in form, have low weights, are great jumpers and the top 2 have massive stamina. IRISH INVADER’S stamina is suspect on paper but i just have a feeling that the trainer is being wiley and this is going to be the dark horse this year(so it will probably fall at the first now).
What are everyone elses bets?
Good luck to everyone.
#578
March 24th, 2009 22:48
P McDonald rode Hot Weld in Scottish GN and not Keith Mercer according to RP website – is this correct?
Mercer has ridden HW 4 times with record of 5153 but not been on board since November 2005.
#579
March 24th, 2009 22:51
You’re right LOUGH. Don’t know where that came from so apologies. Don’t fancy CB though but he will get in. I know not everyone agrees with me but KILBEGGAN BLADE was 33-1 at Corals yesterday and 20-1 today. What’s going on? It’s the one I’m backing now but sick at the price and think we’re all being suckered at the moment. Really cross with the bookies – this is the people’s race and none of the real money is there yet. There are going to be non-runners less than 20-1. Stupid and wrong. Grrrr.
#580
March 24th, 2009 23:04
What surprises me the most is the amount of horses backed here. Savers? No, it’s easy to pick the winner if you back a quarter of the field. I am on KILBEGGAN BLADE, RAMBLING MINSTER and BUTLER’S CABIN. Will have money on SOUTHERN VIC on the day for my girlfriend’s sake (if you can’t guess her name you have no chance). I always back four but KB is my big tip, everyone should have money on RM and beyond that it’s a lose this year. That’s my truth. I’m confident enough to feel I’ved named the winner here.
#581
March 24th, 2009 23:21
p smith Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 9:31 PM
“hi all message from wife can anyone enlighten us to which horses thata re left in are GREY i know kjc was so whos left she only backs grey horses (its her money lol)”
Hi there –
full details re grand national greys on this page on Grand National Guide
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-greys.php
good luck to your wife!
#582
March 24th, 2009 23:27
Had a look at the form for the Gold Cup that War of Attrition won and it was indeed a shocker. It was the year Beef or Salmon was 4/1 favourite and had the likes of Forget the Past placed – was the year Hedgehunter was second though. We do hear what you are saying Oedipe but not managing to convince many – or possibly any of us! But I am sure you will back WOA using your own judgement. I am happy to stand up and be counted and say that in my opinion, he won’t be in the first 4. He can join My will and Butlers Cabin at the front rank of the betting anytime.
#583
March 24th, 2009 23:40
Got my money on Rambo and State Of Play to win but just wonderin what horses people would pick for an eachway Yankee?
#584
March 24th, 2009 23:52
Himalayan Trail @ 40/1 with Hills
Should get the trip, has jumped the fences, will probably get ground to suit
Decent 10/1 shot for a place in my book
#585
March 25th, 2009 00:16
i just took a bit of the 40/1 you talk about. it’s about all the real value I could find left. that’ll be me done betting till the day when i think about the forecast / tricast.
#586
March 25th, 2009 08:24
Whitearab, I’m sorry if my earlier posts gave you the impression that I had backed War Of Attrition. I was merely making the case for why he might win.
I’m sure we’ve all scatched our heads after backing a loser, taken another look at the form of the winner and thought “Yeah…I can see now how that had a chance.”
For the record, the horses I have backed are;
Rambling Minster – obvious stats pick but I am concerned that he doesn’t have as much in hand as some of his rivals. Think he has to run a career best to win. (Avg prices 22/1)
Offshore Account – mentioned in a previous post that he is potentially as good or better than Snowy Morning was going into last year’s race. A Class 1 Novice winner, unexposed and could be anything. But his absence from the track is a concern. Hence the price (59/1 on Betfair).
Brooklyn Brownie – solid jumper who has never fallen in 38 starts over hurdles and fences and finished 2nd in the Becher Chase over the National fences this season. Think he is capable of running a few pounds ahead of his handicap mark, and could snatch a place. (Backed e/w at 66/1 5 places)
Kilbeggan Blade – Impossible to fancy Rambling Minster and not this one, who beat him fair and square at Sandown. However he also needs to put in a career best run to win. (Some e/w at 28/1 5 places and small win at 35/1 Betfair)
Darkness – Another formerly classy novice (Feltham winner) who has had an interrupted career due to injury. Showed he retains his ability on recent win against the Veterans at Newbury. If he puts up a career best effort, that would be almost a stone better than his racing mark! Really is the dark horse. (saver at 40/1)
Character Building – Personally a very frustrating horse who has flattered to deceive on all his runs this season prior to the Kim Muir. If that race has not left a mark, and the tongue tie is the answer, I could see this horse still travelling sweetly coming to the last. How much he will find after the elbow is anyone’s guess. The value has probably gone now. (saver at 14/1)
#587
March 25th, 2009 08:42
A nice book of bets there Oedipe. I would be happy going into the race with those.
I try and have around 4/5/6 running for me too and at the moment I have got 5 in my book. I could possibly be tempted into that 6th one though as it is getting more exciting by the day!
#588
March 25th, 2009 09:20
Oedipe – you make a good case for your bets but I have a different take on Kilbeggan Blade vs Rambling Minster
I don’t think Kilbeggan Blade will be good enough at Aintree because having watched some of his races (in particular the Sandown contest) I don’t think he travels well enough to last the trip on what will likely be good or good to soft ground (and didn’t stay in the Borders National either)
AP McCoy gave him a terrific ride at Sandown and that race was his primary target of the season at that stage – but how many horses win the GN these days that have been pushed and niggled along for the last mile and a half of the race?
Rambling Minster was outpaced a little around the Pond fences at Sandown but he stayed on well up the hill and was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths in the end in a bunched finish. Over another 6 1/2 furlongs I would have fancied him much more than Kilbeggan Blade.
I think Rambling Minster is crying out for the National trip (he might even improve again as he has with every run this season), travels very well and is a sound jumper and a reproduction of his Haydock form would see him win the race for me – watered or good to soft ground would mean that he is less likely to get outpaced early in the race too
That’s my reading of the situation anyway
#589
March 25th, 2009 09:31
Anybody noticed State of Play’s drift on Betfair, now out to 30′s from 19′s. A bit worrying maybe, any thoughts?
#590
March 25th, 2009 09:35
With news of a couple of more non-runners/doubtful runners Volty, the market will be just refelcting a little more weight going onto him – taking him slightly over most people’s ideal weight limit. Nothing else to worry about.
#591
March 25th, 2009 09:41
mornin all.
dear t.t.m.sorry didnt reply earlier mate.
just stating we are all in this together,i dont presume to know any more than anyone else.debate
is healthy and in end our money goes where mouth is.so close to race now,different angle always welcome.
so if you know more than i then respect is due to you,just dont dissmiss other ideas from people stickin in months of time and effort.good luck to all mate.enough of this,mi fingers worn out.
long aswe all come out ahead itsworth bit of banter.
#592
March 25th, 2009 09:48
Showlad, I’m not so sure about the Betfair move on SoP. If it were just the weight, we’d be seeing the same for My Will etc. If this were the case, would we have seen the move on WoA? I’m mainly concerned as I was offering to lay off for profit at 22! Have to change my strategy and maybe take less profit!
#593
March 25th, 2009 09:50
Pablo – the form of Kilbeggan Blade suggests he is at his best in the first half of the season and with some give in the ground. He has won the Sandwon race for two years, each time putting up a career best effort.
In his earlier career he was run during the summer months, invariably on ground that is good or good to firm, and although he chalked up some wins the signs are that soft ground and longer trips are his forte.
Am I right to think he was aimed at the GN last year, but failed to make the cut? Was the Scottish National an after-thought? In any event he ran a disappointing race to be pulled up at Ayr. The ground was officially good, but a proven mud-lark, Halcon Genelardais, finished second so I wouldn’t want to blame the ground alone for his poor run.
If the race was being run in early December on soft ground, then Kilbeggan Blade would be amongst the favourites. But it’s not, and that’s why he’s twice the price.
He may not be entitled to win a match bet against Rambling Minster, but if the form lines of the two are strong then they should both be in the mix at the finish.
#594
March 25th, 2009 09:50
Nice post Oedipe and I do understand what you say. If a Gold Cup winner wins the National, you are right – some will say ‘how did I miss that!?’. As regards what I have backed (and not every horse in the race!), I am happy to be open and say that my book is:
Rambling Minster to win me £4k+ if he wins – I’ll get about £1k if he places – having backed him at 40′s and early on Betfair.
Kilbeggan Blade to win will get me a return of £1500 and about £400 if he places. Backed very early.
Southern Vic or State of Play winning will give me a return of £800+ and about £200 each if placed.
Character Building I had a saver on and if he wins, I’ll get back £440 and £100 if he places.
Darkness and Reveileez I have backed to win only and to small stakes on Betfair. Darkness £10 at 80 and Reveillez £10 at 300.
In total I have staked about £400 but feel happy enough with my lot. There have been some posts that are tempting as regards Himalayan Trail and Irish Invader but I have finished with my wagering until the day. I will look at doing a forecast on the day and a perm tricast with the 4 or 5 I think are strongest.
I might win a few quid, I might break even or I might lose the lot. But that’s racing! Betting a little bet on a regular basis and early does not seem as bad as lumping £400 in cash on at once.
#595
March 25th, 2009 09:58
In an article written 2 days ago by Charlie McCann (one time Talksport betting advisor and now employed by Stan James)…..
“Evan Williams agreed State Of Play looked attractively weighted but the owners didn’t want to run in the race.”
Full article here
http://www.oddspreview.com/category/Grand-National/Grand-National-Leading-Contenders-200903230010/
Also worth noting the price of Southern Vic is drifting slightly on Betfair. This could be sparked by the comments of Paul Nicholl’s about jockey bookings; he gave no mention to the fact Ruby might be riding his dad’s horse.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/big-fella-thanks-c-williams-aintree-grand-national-williams-to-ride-big-fella-if-walsh-picks-my-will/173117/latest/
#596
March 25th, 2009 10:28
Oedipe – for me the bigger concerns are that, away from Sandown in December, KB’s Class 1 and 2 form is pretty dire and he doesn’t appear to be well-handicapped on his best form
Whereas RM has won a Class 1 and ran well in December 2007 giving weight away to two horses who were very well-in for last year’s GN (Cloudy Lane +20 lb on OR and RPR, COD +ll lb on OR and +16 lb on RPR) – RM around a stone or more better off with the pair for 6 1/2 lengths
Clearly over 3 miles rather than 4 1/2 (and all three have improved to varying degrees since), but a useful form line I feel
#597
March 25th, 2009 10:33
Just taken from Racing Post site story about Ruby and his ride. At the bottom read;
‘In further jockey news, Noel Fehily and Robert Thornton have been lined up to partner whichever JP McManus-owned horses Tony McCoy – who can pick from Butler’s Cabin, L’Ami and Can’t Buy Time- rejects’
Hope this doesn’t mean Reveillez doesn’t run
#598
March 25th, 2009 10:54
king john castle out of GN
Comments from W mullins on his runners
Willie Mullins has two live contenders for the John Smith’s Grand National in last year’s third Snowy Morning and Irish Invader, who has won his last three starts.
“Both horses worked this morning and both worked well,” said Mullins.
“I think with Irish Invader, even though he has done most of his winning over two miles and two and a quarter, he has won a three-mile hurdle and his pedigree suggests he will stay.
“He’s a very relaxed horse and that is why we were getting beaten earlier on this season, we weren’t making enough use of him.
“Since we’ve changed tactics he’s been a lot better so whoever rides him will have to put him to sleep for the first two and a half miles and then maybe ride a race.
“He has a tremendous way of jumping, I think he’ll love the ground and it’s all to play for.
“Snowy ran OK in the Bobbyjo but he was beaten plenty. He wouldn’t have liked the ground on the day.
“With the sun on his back in the last few days and the drying ground I’m hoping he will improve immensely,” he told At The Races.
The horse for money in the race continues to be 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition with William Hill cutting him to 16-1 from 20s, despite his welter burden.
Hills’ spokeswoman Kate Miller said: “Be under no illusions, this isn’t just patriotic money for War of Attrition as punters are backing him from both sides of the Irish Sea.
“He now rates as the second-biggest loser in the book behind favourite My Will and the gamble shows no sign of subsiding.”
#599
March 25th, 2009 10:55
Turftrax are now doing updates on the Aintree going so this link is now invaluable for our Aintree betting.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
#600
March 25th, 2009 11:03
does anyone rate offshore account …. bit bored and going over selections again come up with the usual
rambo , darkness , kb etc. but cant get offshore account off the list?
#601
March 25th, 2009 11:05
The form of Kilbeggan Blade’s 7 runs in Class1 or Class2 handicap chase company reads P41P0P1. The two wins came at Sandown over 3m6f.
I admit, you are looking to excuse 5 bad runs!
So maybe he just loves Sandown, as his poor runs don’t appear related to distance, going, jockey or field size?
Or maybe he just goes better in the early part of the season, because the 5 defeats all came in the months after Christmas?
Or if you really want to clutch at straws, you can argue his case as follows;
He came into the Sandown ’07 race on the back of a season debut over hurdles 2 weeks previous, and won nicely off a mark of 129. He was hit with a 12lb hike, and bounced next time at Warwick. He had two further runs over hurdles in the next 5 weeks before going off at 10/1 in the Festival Cross Country race. He bombed again, but it’s a race for course specialists so you would be prepared to ignore that run. Barely 6 weeks later and he runs in the Scottish Grand National off a mark of 143. He’s pulled up, and no surprise as the poor preparation and weight combined to beat him. Starts off the following season with the same schedule as last year, and scores on his hurdle prep and then at Sandown – where he’s back to a more manageable mark of 137. He’s since had another 2 prep runs over timber but comes to Aintree a fresher horse than the same time last year, and is running off 141, down a couple of pound from a year ago.
I still think he has to run a career best to feature, but if he can run to a high 140s then he could be in the frame.
#602
March 25th, 2009 11:08
Dragonman, Offshore Account has been discussed earlier in the thread, so to save copy/pasting it again please search back.
It was only in the last 1 or 2 days.
#603
March 25th, 2009 11:11
Notellpa no worries re state of play – he was many’s Top Tip (2nd in our League) and now he’ll get a bit more weight, he’s just drifting a bit. Yesterday 25s was on betfair now he’s back into 26s.
Oedipe – wouldn’t read too much into Scottish GN form, some horses don’t seem to to take to course/race etc. Maybe time of year at end of season? Rambo pulled up in it, I think COD had pulled up at Ayr too hadn’t he?
#604
March 25th, 2009 11:28
Showlad, a quick check back in the form book confirms what you said about Rambling Minster and Comply Or Die being pulled up in the Scottish National.
You can add Character Building to that list as well.
#605
March 25th, 2009 12:04
LOL we should make that a new stat requirement
Must have been pulled in Scottish Nat.
Well let’s hope Rambo, CB or KB make that a 2/2 stat! Would suit me fine.
#606
March 25th, 2009 12:04
Im exactly the same Notelppa. I planned to lay out my entire stake on SOP as it got closer to the day. Expected him to be around 16/1. Gutted that he has started drifting again
Hope it shortens up again. Was below 20s less than a week ago. Suppose somethins gotta give way tho as everybody else appears to be shortening. CB stays the same and BA has been drifting slightly.
Ells
1
#607
March 25th, 2009 12:42
Notelppa/Lough. Hold tight (unless he withdraws lol) I reckon he will go up nearer the day around 16s
#608
March 25th, 2009 12:45
Must confess that I’ve never really got involved in laying horses that I’ve already backed. I assume that your initial back price has to be much much bigger than your lay price in order to make it work? Let’s take an example:
I backed Knowhere months ago for £5 at 130/1 to win £650
I now don’t fancy Knowhere. Let’s say the lay price is 100/1 (fictional as I can’t check Betfair at work!) and I layed it for £6.50.
If knowhere wins the national I get £650 for my early backed price but I lose £650 for my lay, meaning I break even. However, if Knowhere does not win, I obviously don’t win anything from backing it but win a paltry £6.50 for the lay. However, my backing stake was £10 so I’ve actually lost £3.50
Is that all correct? Seems like a lot of hassle for limited rewards?!
#609
March 25th, 2009 12:46
Norzic has been confirmed as a non-runner in the National so Cloudy Lane now becomes top-weight, meaning an 8lb rise since weights announced. Details as follows:
NOZIC heads six possible runners for champion trainer Paul Nicholls in the Topham Chase at Aintree next month for which the weights were revealed on Wednesday.
The Rowland Meyrick Chase winner will carry top weight of 11st12lb if running and could be joined by Gwanako (11st7lb), New Little Bric (10st9lb) and Mr Pointment (10st10lb) but stablemates Herecomesthetruth and Osako D’Airy are unlikely according to Nicholls.
He said: “Nozic will probably run in the John Smith’s Topham Chase because he won’t run in the National under top weight. Harry Skelton will claim off him.
#610
March 25th, 2009 12:52
Speedyseagull – I am not a fan of laying off before the race and I empathise with your point on this – however, there could be some value in laying off in running during the race. I am loaded up on Black Apalachi at big prices but now don’t think he will win as too much weight and probably won’t get his round. However, he is a front runner and is likely to trade short in running, especially if surviving the first circuit unscaved – if he gets to around the 4-1 mark for example, that would be a tasy price to lay off on if you have a profit pool to do this from.
#611
March 25th, 2009 12:53
sorry “round” should read “ground” – my typing is shocking
#612
March 25th, 2009 13:06
Speedyseagull, in your example, you would win £1.50 if knowhere fails to win. £1.50 from your £5 bet which is a 30% return which can’t be bad for a free bet when you consider knowhere’s chances. Admittedly, £1.50 seems paltry but working with bigger stakes makes good money. The way I’m working Betfair this year is that the profit I make is paying for the bets I’ve already had with the bookies. Basically, I’ve got about £400 of free bets which will make 20 grand if Rambo wins (as had him in some tasty doubles and at 40s and 25s) and 2 to 3 grand if BC or Hear the Echo win (backed before the weights announced).
For example, I’ve backed HtE at 25ish and layed at less than 20 (a 20% profit) then reinvested on BC at 22 and laid at 18 (too early), reinvested again on Rambo and so on. I’m now looking to make profit on State of Play and will probably lay off around 22. The danger is backing non runners and I’ve lost a small amount on High Chimes but have made money on other NRs. Work it right and it can be profitable and it’s nice to know when watching the race that all your bets are free!
#613
March 25th, 2009 13:07
Speedyseagull – Knowhere is 110 to lay on Betfair. If you can lay £6.50 at 100 you will be £1.50 up on every runner, apart from the aforementioned Knowwhere, where you are level.
That will give you £1.50 to re-invest on the market. And although it’s below the minimum £2 stake, there are ways to get around that.
Hope that helps.
#614
March 25th, 2009 13:08
Is it my computer or does this site sometimes require you to click “Newer comments” and sometimes it just one long list?
#615
March 25th, 2009 13:09
J Rambo. You do know that the Ante-Post Market and “Day of Race” are different and you won’t be able to lay off any Ante-Post bets from potential payout, you’d have to stump up the potential payout in running from your Betfair account, though the commission is calculated over net profit of the 2 markets. Does this make sense?
#616
March 25th, 2009 13:17
GRASSISGREEN – I have the same issue.
It must be a testament to the quality of the posts that we’re all prepared to tolerate it
#617
March 25th, 2009 13:21
State Of Play now out to 33′s on betfair? What is going on?!!?
#618
March 25th, 2009 13:27
SoP being laid left right and centre! If you want to lay now, it’s at 48!! Must be something up. Last matched price is 40.
#619
March 25th, 2009 13:46
philip hobbs on ATR :
“If the ground is good or good to soft Parsons legacy WILL run if it is soft or worse Parsons Legacy will NOT run”
#620
March 25th, 2009 13:50
Now back into 35s. Maybe his extra weight=lots trying to lay off now…
#621
March 25th, 2009 13:51
Well dragonman, sounds good for Parsons –
I can’t see it being worse than good to soft
#622
March 25th, 2009 14:30
Notelppa – that’s what I’m planning to do – stump up the money from my betfair account – I stand to win 5K on RM – if he trades at around 2-1 in running, will lay off on the exchange and guarantee protif between just below 1K and 3K, spineless I know, but free money none the less
#623
March 25th, 2009 14:35
Hi Dragonman can you post up link to Parsons/ATR – just been on site couldn’t see.
#624
March 25th, 2009 14:37
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/25/manual_120623.html
#625
March 25th, 2009 14:38
above link to same story but on sporting life
#626
March 25th, 2009 14:38
GRASSISGREEN says:
March 25, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Is it my computer or does this site sometimes require you to click “Newer comments” and sometimes it just one long list?
Oedipe says:
March 25, 2009 at 1:17 PM
GRASSISGREEN – I have the same issue.
It must be a testament to the quality of the posts that we’re all prepared to tolerate it
once this thread gets to 650 posts thats 12 pages of 50 to scroll through until you get to the one you want…..tolerate it for now yes but it is becoming a pain
I note that many have asked why this is happening without explination…..Admin?
#627
March 25th, 2009 14:45
showlad … philip hobbs was interviewed today on “get on” on the ATR channel and was asked about parsons.
#628
March 25th, 2009 14:46
Just been reading the following on sporting life.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/25/manual_105817.html
#629
March 25th, 2009 14:52
Thanks Brian
#630
March 25th, 2009 14:54
Just going back to the trends for a minute.
Could someone please confirm to me what the trend is for the OR on RACEDAY.
I know it is different to the trend regarding the OR for weights day but for the life of me i cant find the exact trend for the OR on Race day. Off the top of my head its an OR of 155 or below on race day can someone confirm if this is correct?
#631
March 25th, 2009 15:03
SoP’s price seems to have settled at 32. That’s a relief. In fact, I managed to top up at 42 upping my average odds.
#632
March 25th, 2009 15:15
Brian, the OR on raceday from the last 14 runnings.
2008 139 Comply Or Die
2007 138 Silver Birch
2006 138 Numbersixvalverde
2005 144 Hedgehunter
2004 139 Amberleigh House
2003 139 Monty’s Pass
2002 136 Bindaree
2001 140 Red Marauder
2000 139 Papillon
1999 142 Bobbyjo
1998 147 Earth Summit
1997 149 Lord Gyllene
1996 152 Rough Quest
1995 155 Royal Athlete
Hope that helps.
#633
March 25th, 2009 15:35
Thanks Oedipe
Thats a great help and confirms the 155 i had sailing round in my head
#634
March 25th, 2009 19:44
Just noticed on the or ratings of the winners
hedgehunter OR 144 Carrying 11st 1
Rambling OR 143 Carrying 10st 9lb
approx.
Perhaps further evidence of how well in Rambling is. I HOPE !
#635
March 25th, 2009 19:47
Plus Rambling Minster OR higher than what Comply or Die’s was last year at same weight.
C.O.D OR 139
Just trying to convince myself on Rambling and Keep my money in my pocket and not panic bet on Himalayan Trail
#636
March 25th, 2009 19:50
OK GUYS
stop messing about i have my money to put on 5 horses which are going (to hopefully ) bring me a return.
so which 5 should i back tomorrow morning at the bookies
#637
March 25th, 2009 20:07
Rambling Minster
Cornish Sett
Darkness
my current top 3
#638
March 25th, 2009 20:09
thanks superswinger
rambling minster i feel will be in everyones so thats a deffo just 4 to get now
#639
March 25th, 2009 20:22
p.smith my other 4 would be
1 kilbeggan blade
2 himalayan trail
3 irish invader
4 state of play
all e/w and at good odds and all in my opion and thats all it is a good chance of a placing.
#640
March 25th, 2009 20:28
p smith – If you are not on already then some of the value has gone.
You will have to back RM regardless, as I don’t think anyone visiting this forum is allowed not to! haha
Have something on Character Building because he will be easy to spot in the race. He’ll be the grey horse travelling on the bridle throughout!
One still at big prices that is a good jumper and likely to get round is Brooklyn Brownie @ 40/1.
Cornish Sett @ 50/1 is another who looks overpriced and could make the frame.
And for a 5th and final selection at this late stage, take a chance on Southern Vic @ 16/1, because if Ruby does choose him then he’s value at that price.
That’s not necessarily what I’ve backed, but my thoughts based upon current prices. If you wanted to see my selections you will have to search back through the thread.
Hope that helps.
#641
March 25th, 2009 20:49
My suggestions based on choosing the WINNER. Not ew bets or ‘good run for your money’ bets, but win bets, based on all my analysis and trends etc are:
1.) Rambling Minster
2.) Character Building
3.) L’ami
4.) Parsons Legacy (I would wait till the ground is confirmed – as will be withdrawn if ground goes soft).
5.) Cornish Sett
If you don’t like a couple of those and fancy substituting in others I would suggest:
Brooklyn Brownie and/or Darkness
If you are looking for e/w bets etc then I could give you different horses. However, assuming you were having 5 win bets those would be my recommendations.
You may find it difficult to get a default 5 from us all though as we all have varying opinions about the best outside of Rambo. I would suggest looking at the results of our tipping table – as this will give you the overall scores for each horse, based on all our input.
Hope this helps.
Ells
1
#642
March 25th, 2009 20:58
Best get on Rambo soon as there are more firms going 12s than 14s now!!
The money continues to pour on for WOA as he’s as low as 14s now. Where’s this money coming from? I know people knock his Gold Cup win it was a very fast race (over 10 secs faster than the Gold Cups won by Kauto Star and Denman) and I think Hedgehunter was a better horse than many give him credit for. However, even if he is well handicapped on his previous form, he hasn’t looked quite the same force since coming back from injury, and he will still have the welter burden of 11-09 to lump around. Either the money coming for him is somewhat misplaced or a lot of people on here (me included) are going to feel pretty stupid come 4:30 on the 4th.
#643
March 25th, 2009 21:25
top 5 monsieur smith get these ones on and ull be smiling on the day – whatever u do dont delay as theyll be half the price in a weeks time
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Darkness
Southern Vic
Kilbeggan Blade or Himalayan Trail
#644
March 25th, 2009 21:28
hi all some interesting comments let u all into a secret got rambling minstrel, darkness and kilbeggan blade 3 weeks ago just wanted to make sure so im sure ill be very happy!!!!!!
keep hearing now about himalayan trail why wheres this sprung from
#645
March 25th, 2009 21:36
previous winners
4 4 5 6 9 8 15 0.59 13 15 20 numbersix
5 6 1 9 5 11 14 0.85 12 16 15 hedgehunter
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18 a house
5 2 3 7 7 7 14 0.63 10 12 17 m pass
4 3 10 2 10 7 12 0.66 17 15 22 bindaree
4 2 4 8 4 6 12 0.70 10 14 16 red mar
0 6 3 9 7 6 16 0.35 9 18 19 papillon
7 2 4 4 10 9 14 0.69 11 8 16 bobbyjo
4 2 6 6 7 6 13 0.62 12 14 19 e summit
3 1 4 8 8 4 16 0.39 8 13 20 l gyllene
1 4 5 9 8 5 17 0.37 10 18 22 r quest
4 3 10 4 7 7 11 0.75 17 17 21 r athlete
4 4 4 8 6 8 14 0.67 12 16 18 minne
1 3 4 7 9 4 16 0.31 8 14 20 p politics
0 3 5 8 7 3 15 0.30 8 16 20 seagram
3 5 7 8 6 8 14 0.67 15 20 21 mr frisk
All the above horses ran within 50 days and carried less than 11stone 1ib.
only 2 from 16 had more sprinter miler pts than 9 this would get rid of
parsons
g flight
battle
c sett
fleet
musica
cb time
darkness
s vic
a waining
c building
b cabin
h trail has not run for 72 days
This leaves
fundamentalist 0.54
lami 0.75
irish invader 0.41
r minster 0.59
k blade 0.91
b brownie 0.61
To win this years grand national !
#646
March 25th, 2009 21:39
Think evryone waking up to the fact that hes a horse very attractively weighted who will also stay all day and have no problem with the 4m 4f – he already jumped round the fences before on ground he would not have liked and assuming the ground is not too testing could easily bounce back to form . when so much of the value has been squeezed out of character building, rambling minster , southern vic etc hes one of the few left whos still available at a sporting price 33/1 . if b geraghty rides that would be even better although barry looks like he will ride the n henderson horse golden something or other instead… i think hes worth adding to your collection and could be a another springer in the market in the next few days
#647
March 25th, 2009 21:40
p smith: re HT – he’s got class, won midlands national over 4m and is a spring horse. Poor cpl recent runs, but reported to be firing on all cylinders now coming into GN.
CB drifted out to 17s on Befair…
#648
March 25th, 2009 21:44
Could not be having Himalayan Trail at all! Yes he has been geared towards the National by the look of his hurdles preps. However, like Butlers Cabin, he has ben in appaling form all season. I know people say he hasn’t got the ground, or he is a spring horse. But its a big leap of faith to think he can turn up after a terrible season and win one of the hardest races there is. Not saying he won’t win, just saying ther are much much much less riskier bets out there than this one. Last two races they have put cheekpieces on for the first time, and then tongue strap on for the first time, which might indicate they haven’t been entirely happy with him either. Im 98% sure this horse won’t win. Bold words I know, and you know im a fan of horses who have proven stamina – he’s won over four miles. But for me he just doesn’t look like a horse that can win the Grand National based on this years performance. Same goes for BC.
P.S I do know he had terrible form before his Bangor win and then Midlands National win last year. Still don’t see him doing it. Isn’t it something like 38/40 or 18/20 have been top 3 in a chase in winning season. With Number6 and Papillon both coming top 3 in hurdle races.
Ells
1
#649
March 25th, 2009 21:45
Rummy – think you need to put himalayan trail back into your fab bit of work as his last run was 32 days ago not 72 . i think thats a glitch on the winner predictor tool
#650
March 25th, 2009 21:50
Chuffed L’ami still in there RedRum
Seems to be on the shortlist for virtually every shortlist and trend there is, yet chosen by so few. Other than being french, and unplacing 2 years ago when 8 years old carryin 11-8 he seems perfect. Ah well, I’m happy with him, that’s main thing lol.
Ells
1
#651
March 25th, 2009 21:52
Virtually rain free from Weds 1st – to race day of Sat, should ensure good ground, what do we think?
#652
March 25th, 2009 22:08
Showlad,
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/liverpool_forecast_weather.html
All you need to know about the ground and weather. I strongly suggest you make good use of these.
#653
March 25th, 2009 22:09
Hi Admin,Sorry but i have to ask this question.How come you pull me up for saying a certain horse is a cert to win the race and not others for saying they will win 4k on this horse?Won’t new people on the blog think it must be a cert if guys are putting so much on a horse in the race that is meant to be the hardest in the world!!At the end of the day my message was only tongue in cheek!! .-)
#654
March 25th, 2009 22:20
Good point Whacky.
I knew your point when you were pulled up was only using a fun racing term anyway.
However, I do think you’ve raised a really good point here.
I think it’s fine to say ‘I’ll make a mint’ or, lol, ‘that’s the holiday in the Seychelles if my ship comes in’ – but I was finding it a bit setting the entirely wrong tone with ‘I’ll win 10 k’ or ‘I’ll win 30k’ etc.
Whatever we could each win (good luck all) on whatever horse I don’t think we need to make this blog into a blance sheet or encourage heavy gambling by some, who may mistakenly think big bucks returns is a cert by following tips here on this blog.
#655
March 25th, 2009 22:49
Agreed, Showlad – I think it would be prudent to keep cash sums off the blog.
For me the challenge here is to crack the code and find the winner – we all know that if we do that it will bring a windfall which could be anything from a few quid for a night out up to mega bucks for something on a grander scale, but I don’t think it helps anyone to reveal our liabilities and it also runs the risk of encouraging others to bet.
I reckon most of us know the dangers of gambling because we’ve had our fingers burned at some stage. Fact is, gambling can ruin lives and destroy families.
I do not give tips – if people ask I will just be telling them that this year I expect to lose money on Rambling Minister and State of Play. If they are daft enough to follow me, good luck to them.
I would rather glorify the Grand National than glorify gambling.
Plus…I don’t want the missus knowing how much I could lose or how much I may win!!!!
#656
March 25th, 2009 23:04
My 5 for the race:
Cornish Sett – finished like an absolute train at the Welsh National, backed it as soon as race had finished.
Rambling Minster – can’t not back it after the last 2,000 or so posts! But agree with all the comments here, an excellent chance based on the trends.
Darkness – the Dark One had to be backed after Newbury lto, still think it would have beaten Irish Raptor despite the latter’s misfortune and nicely weighted for the big race
Black Apalachi – on strength of brilliant Becher Chase performance back in October. Probably needs a drop of rain but proven on course.
Offshore Account – initially going to be a fun bet being from the IOM, it beat Snowy Morning 34l in April 2007 and very similar profile – encouraging comeback over hurdles and more that a fun bet now!
Have tatts tickets for the Friday and County Roof tickets for the Saturday so will inevitably have a couple of ‘hunch’ bets on course – Hot Weld won me a packet on the Scottish National so i’ll probably be on regardless despite poor comeback runs.
Good luck whatever you back guys and girls…
#657
March 25th, 2009 23:12
Agreed, all I would say is that there is a lot less gambling going on here than there is in just whacking a tenner on a random horse at your local bookies. I am in no way encouraging people to spend money they don’t have or place more money than they can afford to lose but… gamblers be they amateur or serious could do much worse than take information from this blog. I research cards intensely each time I bet, but not to the extent that all us bloggers do for this race inparticular.
When I am giving information or my own tips I don’t expect to have to put a disclaimer at the bottom each time. As far as I am aware this site has been made to help everyone discuss, debate and eventually find the winner. We all seem like sensible people and if anybody’s willing to think that any horse is 100% to win a race, let alone the Grand National then they are likely to lose their money elsewhere anyway.
However I do agree with all your sentiments and it doesn’t matter how much you win, just that you enjoy yourself (and hopefully earn some winnings, however small).
Ells
1
#658
March 25th, 2009 23:17
there is no code to break but the stats can point you in the right direction. based on the last posting does anyone have the record of horses sired by strong gale (darkness / offshore account). i dont know how many have tried and been placed but none have won and its a winner i am after so i couldnt have them. i actually quite like darkness but i backed it in the RSA and its jumping was so bad i wouldnt back him going round aintree – unless he’s been to yogi breisner and i dont know about it!
re cornish sett – finishing like a train over 3m5f is all well and good but he didnt stay last year so i so no reason why he will stay this.
black apalachi is improved but i just think he might have been found out by the weights rise.
a lot is still open to debate as, i am sure most will agree. the 3 most importants factors are not your sire, your country of origin and when you last run but going, distance and jumping. and we dont know what the going will be.
that’s why I had rambling minster in the first place as i think ground isnt an issue and he has stamina and jumping ability – then hits no negative trends and all positive trends. i took the value and am happy.
#659
March 25th, 2009 23:19
Oh grow up Wacky and Showlad. We are all adults on here and bet what we can afford. In my case, I was responding to a challenge that I had backed every horse in the race and could not be winning much. Have a word with yourselves.
#660
March 25th, 2009 23:21
I might also add I personally have no problem with people posting their stakes and potential winnings. I find it interesting to see who does what. However I understand people’s points
Ells
1
#661
March 25th, 2009 23:27
anyone know how may horses have finished the grand national course and NOT placed then gone on to win in a later year? think Amberleigh House did it and red rum ? just looking at cornish sett and lami?
#662
March 25th, 2009 23:30
Let’s argue about who won what when something actually won. i am looking for anyone to give me a good reason to take the value that I still see available for
Parsons Legacy
State of Play
Lami
Silver Birch
these are the 4 i am thinking of backing each way despite weight and french breeding (parsons excepted)
#663
March 25th, 2009 23:33
Not going to get into playing any silly games Whitearab. Point me Johnny V and Whacky are making is no need to list up multi-k win sums on site. Simple.
Not entering into any debate with you.
If anyone wants to post up stakes and projected wins, then fine.
I for one am not for it, so won’t do it, but that’s my call.
#664
March 25th, 2009 23:37
dragonman – i worry about something not good enough to even place in a previous year and if you look at your examples both where aintree specialists. + amberleigh appears to have been brought down which was hardly his fault. someone persuaded me in an earlier post about lami as he shouldered 11st 8lbs but you have just put me back on the right track. dont back anything that didnt run well (or not finish either early or because it was brought down) in a previous national.
#665
March 25th, 2009 23:44
Amberleigh House was placed i.e. top 4 – Cornish Sett was 12th and beaten a long way – I think Cornish could place but it would take someting special for him to win and I do not feel is well-handicapped enough to do so
#666
March 26th, 2009 00:02
re: p smith
For value at this stage i would suggest Irish Invader, think it is mullins first choice, and nicely weighted, lots of horses have hurdles runs before the race to protect there mark and at around 40-1 still value!
Himalayan Trail, just liked the way he won the midlands national, had “future national winner” written all over him!
i am also on COD won me loads last year!(heart or head choice) i dont know? but still cant see it being out of the top 5 places!, so a bet to nothing.
RM, not sure???? has he the class? plenty on here think so !!!
luv the race, won big many times starting off with rummy 50p ew, am i really that old!
#667
March 26th, 2009 00:06
Hi Baggy
I can give you my input on these four for what its worth. You have picked two of my favoued horses there in Parsons and L’ami.
Reason I like L’ami is because when you look back at everyone’s stats, trends, breeding etc he always comes up trumps. He is always there or thereabouts, yet for some reason he seems absent from so many’s list. Reasons why I like him:
He has had a very good season under new trainer and really seems to be enjoying himself again. He has been much lighter raced (both numerically and class wise) this year than in previous build ups. Ran a nice race behind Garde Champetre at Cheltenham and neither seemed to have lost too much when crossing the finish. Has proven stamina both this year over cross country fences (which include so called Aintree fences) and 2 years ago when completing the Grand National. That year he was hampered twice and was only 8 years old. He was carrying 11-8 which is a tough task for any horse, never mind an 8 year old. Before the race McCoy described it as his best ever chance of a winner. Anyway, he has more class than most of these in the race, has a nice weight, has jumped superbly all season and will get the distance. Therefore I rate him as much less of a risky bet than many other ‘more fancied’ horses. Especially if betting each way. Moreover the fact that McCoy told reporters not to forget about L’ami when discussing his potential rides for the National indicates to me that he is still held in some regard by JP.
Negatives:
French
Ran at Cheltenham
Unplaced in previous GN
Owners said that x-country at Cheltenham was main aim.
Reasons I like Parsons: I backed him last year before the race, only to be stung by very strange withdrawal. This year trainer has finally given us punters some feedback. He will run providing there is the word good in the going description. He generally appears to be there or thereabouts. The National has been the aim for this horse for a couple of years I believe. He has won a listed chase and Wincanton and then went on to come 5th in a Hennessy (behind SOP). Came 2nd in Kim Muir at Cheltenham Festival in 07 carrying 6lb more than Cloudy Lane and only losing by 3/4l when staying on extremely strongly at the end. THEN went on to take a very very close third behind Hot Weld the Scottish National. Finally he won in a class 2 in October this season when staying on beating no less than Joe Lively on his favourite course (look how that form turned out)
Negatives:
Only two runs this season (altho im sure this could be the trend thats broken this year, things aren’t how they used to be. The prize pool is so big these days, trainers can afford to lay there horses entire season out for this 1 race, if that means being lightly raced then so be it).
Not run for a long time.
Still might not run if the ground comes soft
I have c+p’d my thoughts on SOP from my final analysis post a few days ago.
Even without weight rise was really starting to doubt SOP. As I’ve said before, main positive for me is the trainers confidence. Without that I wouldn’t be too sure. Plus appears to be too high in the weights now come race day. Not saying a horse can’t win from that mark, (If it was Rambo I would reconsider) but if there’s enough questions you can ask about a horse when hes carrying that sorta weight then I’m happy to cross off list.I have a fair wedge on this horse as I knew it would run and thats its odds would shorten, will lay out both stake and some profit closer to the time (put on my preferred horses)
As for Silver Birch there are much much worse bets for each way/place money. Previous winners have an excellent record at completing/placing in Grand Nationals after there win – and most of these don’t have the kind of weight that Silver Birch (very light for a previous winner). I backed him when I heard he was on the come back trail and layed out after his point to point win. However his form since then doesn’t inspire and its hard to see him winning. Was at his prime when winning 2 years ago and had had a very nice season. Can’t see him doing it this year off a higher mark
Hope this helps
Ells
1
#668
March 26th, 2009 00:15
may have missed but wot about “Cant Buy Time” must be good EW or Lay material!!
#669
March 26th, 2009 00:24
so what’s the negatives on parsons legacy. 2 runs? goes well when fresh. if they are running it then they are for a reason. it should stay, jumps and may get the good ground it needs. anyone any reason it isnt good for a place @44/1
#670
March 26th, 2009 00:25
I take the point about L’Ami being older and stronger but he was beaten 97L in Silver Birch’s National (weakened 3 out)
In terms of handicapping carrying several pounds less does not give him a chance of reversing that form – if a horse is there or thereabouts and fails for carrying too much weight – fair enough – but expecting a horse to improve that much is asking a lot in my opinion
#671
March 26th, 2009 00:26
Quite correct baggy. I could give you no reason at those odds.
Ells
1
#672
March 26th, 2009 00:38
my portfolio to cover rambling minster falling at the first takes shape then (ignore me i am a scouser so i am always pessimistic no matter what till i have actually won)i always have a big bet early and usually have another big bet once i dont fancy it or it is withdrawn. with this year being an exception i now have himalayan trail and parsons for e/w.
anyone any more value ew bets and reasons?
#673
March 26th, 2009 01:04
what is everyone’s best bet in previous nationals and does anyone have a good record recently? mine has dipped since the ealry 80s / 90s when i was on a roll. in hedgehunters year i backed the 4th it takes time @ 33/1 for a place (190 for the win). montys pass was actually my most recent winner though i am sick i missed comply or die (blinkers) numbersixvalverde (cos it was a protugese name and not spanish), hedgehunter (1lb)and amberleigh house (had run in national even though placed and won and trained by mccain) for really rubbish reasons. i counted out silver birch because i thought it was too slow and backed mckelvey. i think look at the trends and discount if they meet 2 negatives but if only 1 and positive dont be put off.
#674
March 26th, 2009 01:28
1994 Miinnehoma
2004 Amberleigh House
Basically i should wait until 2014 for another 16/1 shot to get home!
#675
March 26th, 2009 05:31
Red Rum – in actual fact your figures suggest that only 1 out of the last 16 GN winners had a sprint/miler figure more than 9. Hedgie was the exeption. Now that is a strong stat and could be worth following earlier on next year (if it holds).
Kilbeggan seems to have a high rating at 0.91 – only 1 out of the last 16 had that figure.
I like your numbers but they loose something by not picking the last 2 winners. Why is it that stats for COD, Silver Birch & My Will are unavailable. Is somebody on a “stitch up”?
As Pablo said, they are excellent for elimination purposes and I reckon we need a year or two to follow them before we’re able to convert serious trend followers. They are a refreshing change to the normal “red pen” treatment on this site.
Do these work well for the Derby!?
#676
March 26th, 2009 07:27
COD was definitely my biggest winner @ 25/1 Ante Post. Clan Royal would have been my biggest winner as I had him @ 33/1 Ante Post. Imagine if Liam Cooper still had the whip and gone straight!
I’ve managed 4 out of the last 6 winners and the years I didn’t win I got the 2nd. So I’m on a decent run for me. Having atleast one of the first two guarentees you jumping up and shouting at the tv screen anyway, ha ha.
#677
March 26th, 2009 08:54
Stephen you are quite right…….i know we mainly want to find the winner to win a bit of cash but on the whole for me its the challenge of after 3 months of hard work saying that out of a possible 150 odd runners back in january, come April my selection lines up and is there abouts near the end (hopefully in front) and gives me something to shout home on the tv……magic.
Don’t know about you guys but having your horse up there 5 from home is a buzz nothing can match…….or maybe i need to get out more
#678
March 26th, 2009 09:06
also . does anyone have any stats as to how many of the past winners were competeing in the grand national for their first time when they won it? just wondered.
#679
March 26th, 2009 09:17
thai mark comply or die and silver birch distant dam lines are missing in general stud book has are my wills.
This leaves guess work to work out their figures.
These figures work best with staying races such has the melbourne cup ebor and grand national all true stamina tests run at a good clip.
Best result i’ve had is mudawin 100/1 winner of the ebor a few years back.
He was shortlisted with 2 others.
Have not tryed derby or st leger but will back track and check out the stats.
#680
March 26th, 2009 09:25
Dragonman,
On the last thread I posted some stuff about Grand National also-runs coming back to have another crack at the race. In a nutshell Since Red Rum won his third National in 1977, I think only 3 horses that have completed the course have gone on to win in future years. Two of those were placed (Hallo Dandy 4th 1983, won in 1984, and Amberleigh House 3rd in 2003, won in 2004). The other horse was Little Polvier in 1989, who won at the 4th attempt with previous form reading 9, U, U. So only 3 horses to complete have gone on to win in the last 30 years and only 1 of those finished unplaced.
In the same period 6 horses (Silver Birch, Hedgehunter, Red Marauder, Royal Athlete, Little Polveir and West Tip) have fallen or unseated before going on to win the following year and Ben Nevis was brought down the year before he won.
All the other Nationals since 1977 were one by horses having their first shot at the race.
#681
March 26th, 2009 09:31
thanks very much stayer much appreciated
#682
March 26th, 2009 09:34
q for the Stayer? Can you put up the current Turftrax going report please – can’t seem to find it. Cheers
#683
March 26th, 2009 09:41
This any use J Rambo?…
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
#684
March 26th, 2009 09:48
Rambo,
Stephen has posted up the correct link (as found on the Aintree website). It’s still saying that the last report was done Tuesday @ 4:45pm so they either didn’t do one yesterday or will put up yesterday’s report this morning. I would expect that from tomorrow or Saturday they will be checking the going on a daily basis.
#685
March 26th, 2009 09:48
Thanks Stephen – this one goes back to Tuesday – wondering whether there is an updated link – there has been quite a bit of rain over the last few days up here – agree with the others however, that the forecast seems to be that it will be dry during National week probably leading to good ground on the day. Have you got an account with extrabet? They double your stake on your first bet. Just had a bit more on Rambo at the equivalent of 22-1
#686
March 26th, 2009 10:21
Guys,
Ok, a few issues to address.
Display problems:
We’ve recently swapped to a new version of the software for the blog and its proving a bit tempremental when it comes to maintaining a consistent format for the display. We are working on it so all I can do is ask you to persist with things and hopefully things will be more “user friendly” in the near future.
Wacky
I think I alluded to the fact that those of us with a decent knowledge of racing would appreciate that your comments were probably tongue in cheek but as I also said this blog isn’t all about people with an extensive knowledge and I want to keep down the “this can’t get beat” “this is a cert” statements as I don’t think they are helpful, particularly as we are keen to attract novice gamblers.
With regard to people stating how much they are going to win, I’m not particulalrly keen on this aspect and I appreciate it won’t be everyones cup of tea but, as some people have suggested, some are interested in stakings etc so I’m prepared to let it go.
I’ve been proud of how pleasant the tone of this blog has been throughout the time its been online but I’m just starting to get a little concerned that occasionally things are getting a little argumentative and I’d ask that we all try and get back to concentrating on keeping things pleasant.
Thanks a lot
#687
March 26th, 2009 10:33
CHEERS SILVER BIRCH THAT COULD OF BEEN A COSTLY ERROR !
#688
March 26th, 2009 10:45
Thanks for addressing the issues Admin. You are doing a very good job.
J Rambo, that link will be updated whenever Aintree decided to take a look at the going. Just keep checking back there and you will find it updates every so often.
#689
March 26th, 2009 10:59
top 4 -
rambo
character building
black apalachi
butlers cabin
outside fancies -
kilbeggan blade
darkness
brooklyn brownie
irish invader
#690
March 26th, 2009 10:59
Nice one admin. Good points well made. We all appreciate the work that has gone in to what has become a fantastic site.
#691
March 26th, 2009 11:03
now ………….. group hug ……. and lets be as sure as history will allow that in our list of 6 is something to make us shout and wave our arms at the tv next saturday !!
#692
March 26th, 2009 11:09
just been on william hill website and cannot place a bet on kilbeggan blade??? can on paddy power so may be a glitch?
#693
March 26th, 2009 11:14
dragonman – they may be re-pricing KB – they have done this quite a few times recently. Note that the 33s will Victor Chandler went yesterday – now best priced 26-1 on Betfair – still think this horse is ground dependent like BA – would need it soft, don’t you agree?
#694
March 26th, 2009 12:27
Hi,
Hopefully display problems should now be rectified and pages will open with the newest posts on the front page.
#695
March 26th, 2009 12:31
Cornish Sett/other Cornish fans. I still think 50/1 for a Welsh National runner up is fantastic value at Aintree. Here’s why.
Negatives; 12th of 15 finishers in GN, 36f, last year. Did run out of puff between the last two fences, just as he seemed to run out of puff in last years Welsh National,30f, and Sandown Gold Cup, 29f in 07. Only Highland Wedding,Rag Trade and Little Polveir have come back to win GN after being unplaced in the last 38 GN. Finished 8th last time out, 3 career falls/ur. On ten year basic stats/ trends, Rambling Minster, Character Building, Darkness, Southern Vic, Kilbeggan Blade and Butlers Cabin all ahead of him.
Positives; Jumped the GN fences really well last year, look at the video if you can, stayed in touch with leaders until approaching two out through his jumping on second circuit.
Finished 51 lenghts 8th behind Miko De Beauchene in 07 Welsh National, but this season finished 7 lengths 2nd behind Notre Pere in Welsh National on exactly the same going, soft, on exactly the same OR 144 but in race ran 7 seconds quicker.
Before this season he’d won at 25f, this season he’s won C1 at 26f, before this season he’d placed at 28f, this season he’s placed at 30f. His run last time out in that very competitive race at Haydock, which Rambling Minster won of course, was on ground he’s not is best on. In my humble it was a mixture of the ground and the fact that he had probably ran a career best in Welsh National.
Last time out stats point to 7th or better in last race as the optimum but 3/23 didn’t, his 3 career falls,ur is outside stats optimum of 2 or less but 2/14 GN winners had 3 or more.
But on long term 100% stats he’s spot on- age, weight, top3 C1 chase, 3 chase wins, won one of his last ten chases, top 4 in a chase this season, won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k and, from my own personal view shares the GN winners profile – top 5 Hennessey, top3 Irish, Scots, Welsh National, top2 in race over GN fences/ or 3 chase wins at 24f+ including 1 at 28f+; 36/38, 29/29.
Admin; we do need to watch what has been said and to give equally, I think, positives and negatives on selections. I personally am not concerned by what’s been said by Wacky- he’s speaking up for some very, very strong trends, or whitearab- at least he’s being honest about his bets and putting some serious money next to his selections and after all we all take notice when big bets go down with bookies after all. Well done all.
#696
March 26th, 2009 12:50
As race day approaches the prices surrounding the fancied runners are starting to shorten up. It’s called price discovery folks!
I thought it might of help to post the total SP% from previous runnings, along with the current book percentages of the leading bookmakers on the current top 40 runners (I’ve used 40 shortest priced runners on betfair as the guide).
2008 40runners 146%
2007 40runners 152%
2006 40runners 147%
2005 40runners 139%
2004 39runners 133%
2003 40runners 143%
2002 40runners 143%
2001 40runners 142%
2000 40runners 138%
1999 32runners 133%
1998 37runners 132%
1997 45runners 132%
1996 27runners 131%
1995 35runners 140%
Current Book %ages
888sport 143%
Bet365 154%
Betfred 157%
BlueSq 143%
Boylesports 155%
Coral 152%
Ladbrokes 147%
PaddyPower 164%
Skybet 147%
StanJames 146%
Totesport 152%
VictorChandler 146%
WilliamHill 144%
And finally
Betfair 102%
#697
March 26th, 2009 12:55
crisp 73, cracking post about Cornish Sett. He & Ramling Minster my 2 biggest winners. Backed Cornish at Av odds of 84 & Rambo at 58′s. Generally horses that run in National for a 2nd time that run poorly 1st time don’t do well. However if you look back most had not improved in form since 1st run where as Cornish has had a better season this year except last run which was on ground he did not like. If you check the RP website & look at horses that have run a 2nd time in the National most if not all are on the downgrade or have stayed the same & are not improved horses. I will be doing a R/Forecast bet with Rambling & R/Tricast with Character Building added. Hopefully a cracking payday!!! Roll on next Saturday!! Good luck everyone!!
#698
March 26th, 2009 13:10
Re. Cornish Sett, I believe this horse had a breathing operation in the summer, and this might explain his improved efforts at Wincanton and Chepstow.
You need to excuse his last run behind Rambling Minster at Haydock, but is a genuine reason to believe he might be a better horse than last year.
However, he still has 60 lengths to make up on last year to feature, and is up 4lbs in the handicap.
#699
March 26th, 2009 13:11
Crisp i do not disagree fully with you regarding cornish sett but the one thing i did notice is that you are comparing the 2 welsh nationals where he ran off the same mark off 144 and that he was 7 seconds quicker which is correct but he was 6lb lighter so i would of expected him to run quicker.
Cornish Sett has come on in form since last seasons run but too me he just hasnt come on enough for him to get a place this year.
#700
March 26th, 2009 13:20
I don’t want to be accused of putting anyone away, so must own up that I’ve just read a comment from Paul Nicholl’s re. Cornish Sett PRIOR to LAST YEAR’s GN, stating the horse had a breathing operation since his last run.
So maybe what you saw from him last year was as good as he’s going get!?
http://www.metro.co.uk/sport/extra/article.html?in_article_id=132535
#701
March 26th, 2009 13:24
I couldn’t be having Cornish Sett although I have had a look. Many of you make a very good point regarding why it can turn round last year’s form, and whilst I believe he will get closer, I can’t see it being enough.
You can make similar points about Mon Mome if you really wanted to. Poor in most recent outing and in the RM race before, was staying on at the end and finished ahead of Cornish Sett (although both ran poorly). Apart from these outings, he has also been in much better form than last year (like Cornish Sett) and he finished ahead of Cornish Sett in last year’s National despite being badly hampered twice.
Do I fancy Mon Mome because of this? No, I don’t, although is one of my favourite horses. I just think you could put some sort of a case forward for most horses if you wanted to.
I won’t be backing either although, at the prices, I would be more inclided to go for Mon Mome.
Good luck to the Sett backers though!
#702
March 26th, 2009 13:30
Oedipe, I know Cornish Sett had his breathing operation done before last year’s National.
Brian, I meant that the race time was 7 seconds quicker this year making it even more a test of stamina. I don’t know how much quicker Cornish ran.
#703
March 26th, 2009 13:43
For all those worried yesterday about State Of Play drifting, worry no more!
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/aintree-grand-national-state-of-play-given-grand-national-go-ahead/173472/
#704
March 26th, 2009 13:44
Yeah i meant to put IT was 7 seconds quicker and not HE was 7 seconds quicker.
Going by the distances he was behind the leader on both occassions i think its fair enough to say he was a lot quicker 2nd time around but to me i would expect him to be and on that i just dont think he has improved enough for me to back him.
Agree with speedyseagull in wishing his backers good luck and i certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing him as he does fit nearly all the trends but he just isn’t my cup of tea this year.
#705
March 26th, 2009 13:57
OK, which one horse would you least like to see win the National and why? Just one
Mine would be Big Fella Thanks:
1. He would break many stats and lead to us questioning whether to use this forum next year!
2. I will be watching this years national on a stag do in a pub in Nottingham whilst dressed as Bananaman. My mate Craig who is also attending the festivities stands to win over £3k if the Big Fella wins and keeps banging on about him and refuses to listen to my arguments against it, and so I just could not bear the gloating if he did manage to win!!
Couldn’t bear it…
Graham
#706
March 26th, 2009 14:10
Apart from Big Fella thanks for the reasons you stated (breaking trends that is and not your mate winning money lol)
I would have to say Character Building for the simple reason that i have ummed and arrghed about this horse and listened to everybodies opinions both good and bad and just really cant make my mind up but being the stubborn fool i am (but hopefully the wise man that i am) i have decided not to stake a single penny on it.
Now watch it romp home by 20 lengths
#707
March 26th, 2009 14:40
Butlers Cabin – but I very much doubt he will!
French Bred. Help dismiss the view that he might have won the race when he came down before the 22nd last year. My own private suspicion is that McCoy would sooner ride Kilbeggan Blade than any of the McManus horses – but that would be the only ray of light if BC did win it. Would love to see McCoy win this race – just not this year!
Don’t think your mate will be winning much at your stag do speedy!
#708
March 26th, 2009 14:57
I think the below explains yesterday’s fluctuation in SoPs price on Betfair (taken from RP)… Good news.
EVAN WILLIAMS confirmed on Thursday that State Of Play is almost certain to take his chance in the John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday week.
The trainer had said on Wednesday that he was due to speak to State Of Play’s owners about the horse’s Aintree participation that evening, and when asked what the outcome was, Williams told racingpost.com: “I had a long chat with the owners on Wednesday evening and we all agreed that he should take his chance in the National.
#709
March 26th, 2009 15:06
I would least like to see Kilbeggan blade and big fella thanks win the national, the latter for the reasons already posted,if i were not a stats man then i guess he would be firmly on my list and Kilbeggan blade because i have wrestled with this one for weeks now part of me says he does not have the class and part of me says if he can beat rambo a few runs back then he must be in the thick of things…….i have not staked a penny on either horse, i just hope my better judgement is right.
#710
March 26th, 2009 15:07
Interview with McCoy on Racing Post audio – not sure if anyone has mentioned it but he doesn’t sound very enthusiastic about any of his prospects nor committed to any one horse in particular
Fancy a spin round on Southern Vic or State Of Play, Tony? RM jockey tops so you can’t jock him off
On another note and don’t really want to prompt a general discussion about it because Admin might not approve and it’s more than 2 months away but I thought I’d throw this in for future reference…
Regarding the Derby – I was told many moons ago that a horse needed to be able to ‘quicken’ to win the Derby and this has helped me pick the winner on many occassions
Since 1990:
Year Horse Indicator
1990 Quest For Fame quickened
1991 Generous quickened
1992 Dr Devious quickened
1993 Commander In Chief quickened
1994 Erhaab quickened
1995 Lammtarra no prep run at 3
1996 Shaamit no prep run at 3
1997 Benny The Dip quickened
1998 High Rise quickened
1999 Oath quickened
2000 Sinndar won Ballysax & Derrinstown
2001 Galileo won Ballysax & Derrinstown
2002 High Chaparral won Ballysax & Derrinstown
2003 Kris Kin quickened
2004 North Light quickened
2005 Motivator quickened
2006 Sir Percy 2nd Guineas
2007 Authorized quickened
2008 New Approach 2nd Guineas
Most of the above have ‘quickened’ in the ‘comments in running’ description in the Racing Post write up for one of their races at 2 or 3 before the Derby itself
This can count against Irish horses running on softer ground and you will see that from 2000 – 2002 the Ballysax & Derrinstown Derby Trial double at Leopardstown was done by three Irish horses en route to Epsom success
Lammtarra (one race) and Shaamit (two races) did not quicken but a small sample of races for each and both were unraced at 3 prior to their Derby win
Sir Percy and New Approach both placed in the Guineas (Group 1 Classic form)
Not a ‘must-have’ trend but some useful pointers nonetheless I hope
(Although Commander In Chief, Motivator and New Approach actually ‘quickened’ in the Derby itself – strange but true)
#711
March 26th, 2009 15:21
Pablo i have been trying to listen to it but my computer wont let me.
Without going into too much detail what does AP say in the interview.
Mostly interested in hearing what he’s leaning towards riding and which horse he would prefer to be on if he had the pick of all of them.
I have heard interviews in the past on the lead up to the national with AP and i think its something like 5 out of the last 6 he has mentioned the winner in his list of horses he would prefer to be on if he had free pick of the 40 runners.
Never use this as a stat but its good for reassurance as the leading jockeys know which horses will go close on the day barring incidents but not many of them give an insight into what they are as they have to/like to build up there own horse.
#712
March 26th, 2009 15:23
You have to love people’s sense of humour.
Just spotted this on Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_National
Scroll to the results and look who the winner is in 2009 lmao
#713
March 26th, 2009 15:33
VC are the only ones left offering 14′s for Rambo
#714
March 26th, 2009 15:36
Brian
High profile sporting event – would consider it a failure if I didn’t win it at some stage
Genuinely don’t know what I’ll be riding yet – need to weigh up pros and cons
BC
+ best race for ages at Cheltenham
+ won over 4m
+ Irish GN
- no real spark since Irish GN
CBT
+ progessive, jumps well
- run at Cheltenham
L’Ami
+ ran ok at Cheltenham
+ less weight
- fell before and came 10th
Didn’t mention any other fancies in the race
#715
March 26th, 2009 15:48
Keeping in mind rambling minsters last performance on heavy ground and the fact that his trainer says that he will be better on better ground……. for those of us on Rambo.
Keeping in mind what ground might suit his rivals, what ground would you like to see him race on on the day?
For me i think i would like it good/soft but on the soft side, i am concerned that if it were too good he might get run off his feet, purely because of the way the race is normally run.
#716
March 26th, 2009 15:48
Cheers Pablo.
He is normally interviewed by hells bells on Soccer AM on sky on the morning of the race and thats where i hear him say what he prefers he was on.
#717
March 26th, 2009 15:58
Nice link Brian – here’s some historic GN moments, trends wise and otherwise from years gone by………
• 1961 – The most recent grey horse to win the race – Nicolaus Silver. The only previous grey to win was The Lamb (1868 and 1871).
• 1967 – A pile up at the 23rd fence held up many horses in the race, allowing 100-1 outsider, Foinavon, to win.
• 1975 – The second Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to win the Grand National – L’Escargot.
• 1981 – Bob Champion, who had been diagnosed with cancer and told he only had months to live in 1979, was the winning jockey on Aldaniti, who had almost been retired because of leg trouble. A film was made of their story entitled Champions.
• 1982 – The first female jockey to complete the race – Geraldine Rees, finished 8th (last) on 66-1 outsider Cheers.
• 1997 – The delayed race (rescheduled 48 hours later after a suspected IRA bomb threat) was the last of 50 Nationals (including the void race of 1993) to be commentated on by Peter O’Sullevan.
You’ve got to miss old Pete!
#718
March 26th, 2009 16:05
“You’ve got to miss old Pete!”
Indeed. Now we have to put up with that buffoon Jim McGrath who’s always on about horses getting “a nice pozzie”, being “home for all money” or “pulling it out of the fire”!!
#719
March 26th, 2009 16:13
…yes but thankfully it’s not on Channel 4!
#720
March 26th, 2009 16:25
“…yes but thankfully it’s not on Channel 4!”
I suppose so. If it were on Channel 4 they would probably cut to a class 6 handicap at Southwell at 4:05 then pick the National up as they’re on the way to the first. I guess RacingUK is an alternative but the Beeb generally have better camera angles.
#721
March 26th, 2009 16:30
I’ll bet the beeb don’t have the GN on HD. They’re rubbish. C4 would!
#722
March 26th, 2009 16:37
Love it, hate it or feel indifferent towards it but at least the BBC’s coverage is dedicated to the top-class racing at Aintree – no adverts and other meetings getting in the way – Thursday and Friday off and cannot wait!!!!
Wish Cheltenham and York’s Ebor Meeting would have as many dedicated hours of coverage without the juvenile banter, constant tipping up of favourites and dubious titbits – which really spoils the coverage for me – I can put up with the odd fashion piece on the Beeb
Only bet at a few select meetings a year so don’t want a subscription to Racing UK, but they do analyse races very well
#723
March 26th, 2009 16:59
Just a hunch, but Himalayan Trail could be the next horse to shortened up following some positive comments from the trainer.
Plenty of 33/1 available with the bookmakers and solid on that mark on betfair.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/26/manual_154319.html
#724
March 26th, 2009 17:21
Rambling Minster 12/1 across the board now!!
I was looking forward to topping up at 14′s when i get paid tomorrow
Grrrrr
#725
March 26th, 2009 17:25
Puzzled. I am with you, I would prefer the ground to be good to soft for Rambo – think he may come off the pace and this ground will help – catching the front runners on firmer going may prove difficuilt – my concern is that if he does travel off the pace he may be hampered by other horses falling in front of him – watched main fancies over many years being ridden along the outside and hope James goes for this route rather thann taking risks down the inner – I also think that going wiht more give in it will place a greater emphasis on stamina and we all know he has this in abundance – here’s hoping……
#726
March 26th, 2009 17:42
Rambo fans may be interested in this article.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/26/RACING_National_Nightlead.html
#727
March 26th, 2009 17:45
when will we see an updated list of runners on this site without snoopy loopy and stan etc want to see maljimar what current number he is
#728
March 26th, 2009 18:18
Character Building drifting on Betfair. Anyone with news?
#729
March 26th, 2009 18:21
character building out to 18.5s on bf a bit alarming – also was trading higher than this in the last hour between 25s and 30s….hmmm
#730
March 26th, 2009 18:28
Jack Frost says:
March 26, 2009 at 5:42 PM
Rambo fans may be interested in this article.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/26/RACING_National_Nightlead.html
Just reading the above article……how old is this jockey he looks about 10, will he need an afternoon nap and his wind brought up before the race…he he he.
#731
March 26th, 2009 18:35
p smith says:
March 26, 2009 at 5:45 PM
when will we see an updated list of runners on this site without snoopy loopy and stan etc want to see maljimar what current number he is
I was wondering how long it would be before someone mentioned Maljimar, his 2nd at Cheltenham was quite a good run, thats when he was on my radar but to be honest i never gave him another thought as i did not think that he would get in ……well now i guess he might have a chance of getting in, he might be around 46-47th place with some to be withdrawn that we don’t know of yet, all will be revealed midday Tuesday.
#732
March 26th, 2009 18:36
I came on here to find out about CB as when I got in about an hour ago he was 28s on Betfair.. and 40s to lay. Shortened back in to 17.5s now but still seemed strange. Especially when Coral came into 12s as well and there have been a few articles today where Quinn has talked positively about CB. What the hell happened. Doubled in price?
Ells
1
#733
March 26th, 2009 18:37
Darkness fans may be interested in the following
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/26/manual_155717.html
#734
March 26th, 2009 18:40
Puzzled,
I already did ask people’s opinions of Maljimar but got no feedback so presumed nobody thought that highly of him!
This is what I wrote last week:
“I know he needs a few to come out (probably too many) so probably won’t get a run but what do people make of Maljimar as one to keep an eye on should a lot drop out? To be honest I always considered him a 2m4/2m5f horse but he ran really well in the William Hill to go down to Wichita Lineman by just a neck. I know that he has not won over 3m but that that was only his second try at the distance. His pedigree suggests that he should get further than the distances that he’s been running over – his sire Un Desperado has sired class acts like Best Mate but also thorough stayers and proven Aintree performers like Nil Desperendum and Philson Run. His dam’s sire, Mister Lord, has also produced horses with plenty of stamina, including National 3rd Lord Atterbury and other stayers of note such as Earthmover and Lord of Illusion.”
He looks more likely to get in now and I think he’s quite interesting.
#735
March 26th, 2009 19:06
Darkness WILL run in next weeks national ………… providing it still has 4 legs on the day
#736
March 26th, 2009 19:17
Re. Maljimar, I always thought of him as a 2m4f – 3m horse. Fancied him for the Paddy Power earlier in the season and it’s incredible to think he might be running in the National next weekend.
I think it’s owned by the trainer’s wife? They must have known all along that a rating of 138 was always speculative and they made no attempt to run him again to get his mark up.
On breeding he is related to Best Mate and Philson Run as you said, so there is reason to suggest he will get the trip. The run at Cheltenham was very promising (and unlucky), but has it left a mark?
Reading his race comments I would have some reservations about his jumping. Aside from 2 unseatings and a fall over fences, there are lots of “hit” and “blundered” comments in there.
He’s handicapped to run well, but I think you take a chance on his jumping and stamina.
On Betfair, if he is balloted out then all bets are void so at 89/1 I can see how some might be tempted.
#737
March 26th, 2009 19:27
Cant help thinking that we could see a plunge developing on Himlayan trail over the next week …
Its now patently obvious that not only is he a spring horse but is also better on goodish ground
if you look thru his form below hes spent all of the winter running in bog like conditions which does not suit him. I cant help feeling that this horse is going to show massive improvement for the better ground , guaranteed to stay , and a lovely racing weight and already jumped round at aintree i cant pretend that i can defend him fully from a trends perspective which i myself put so much trust in , but if there has to be a hunch horse for next weekend i really think this fella could be the one and the vibes for him get stronger as the raceday gets nearer
22Feb09 Naa 24Sft HcH9K 22Jan09 Gow 24Hy HcCh63K 28Dec08 Lim 21Sft HcH5K 27Dec08 Lim 22Sft HcH5K 23Nov08 Ain 26Hy C1HcChL67K 02Nov08 Cor 28Hy HcCh23K
#738
March 26th, 2009 19:46
CB still 20/1-21/1 on Betfair. Extabet only firm to drift today – 16s. Would love to know whats goin on. Took 14s with Stan James the other day as he was shortenin up 2 12s and was worse off on Betfair with commission. So tempted to have more on him at this price now as he is INSANE value – but.. need to know what the hells happened. State of Play was 1 thing, but the 3rd favourite :S Wats gone on?
Ells
1
#739
March 26th, 2009 19:50
Got £20quid left for one each way bet so far i have
Rambo
State of Play
Kilbeggan Blade
Himalyan Trail
Can’t decide upon either, l’Ami, Cornish Sett, Irish Native. Anyone any thoughts
#740
March 26th, 2009 20:00
you can get 24/1 on betfair tonight for character building . either the price of a lifetime for anyone interested and wanting to take the chance or signs of something ominous…i remember a few months back black apalchi drifting to 70s for no real reason and nothing coming to light ..
#741
March 26th, 2009 20:02
johnny says:
March 26, 2009 at 7:50 PM
Got £20quid left for one each way bet so far i have
Rambo
State of Play
Kilbeggan Blade
Himalyan Trail
Can’t decide upon either, l’Ami, Cornish Sett, Irish Native. Anyone any thoughts
Irish Native?? if you mean irish invader i have heard he could be the dark horse that is usually sent over from the emerald isle each year and that the price will plumme on the day but cant really get my head around him,
Cornish sett im not a big fan but others are and have made some valid points as to why he can improve on last year its just a matter of how much he can improve.
L’ami has been spoken about by very few on here and in my opinion although he has a lighter weight i dont think he can improve from when he was 8 year old and i think he may be on the decline although again im sure some will give a more in depth rating on him.
I would suggest Darkness or Brooklyn Brownie as an outsider and possibly parsons legacy depending if you can let go of the fact he hasn’t run for a while.
#742
March 26th, 2009 20:04
surely the only thing that could be affecting CB’s price is if he has been sold and taken to another trainer although it had been stated that the current owners would insist he stayed where he was.
I think its very unlikely he has been sold but i cant think of any other reason as to why the price on him would drift. it all seemed to happen around half 5ish today
#743
March 26th, 2009 20:06
jhonny go for irish invader and you mirror exactly my own bets.what a morale booster lol.make sure its invader not native!!!
#744
March 26th, 2009 20:06
It seems today we found out why SOP’s price drifted the other day. After being very positive originaly the owners decided to have a talk with Williams about running him with more than 11st. However they have decided to run him and hence his odds have shortened again. Severely worried about CB. I really want to have more on but I cant imagine this is based on nothin. Jus prayin its not an injury or anythin. I have a decent wedge on this, my 2nd highest bet. I dont see how he cud be injured tho, as there was an article published only 4 hours ago on Sporting Life detaling how happy he was with CB – http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/26/RACING_National_Building.html
How can he have got injured this afternoon/evening?
Really worried, SOP I was only annoyed cos I thought I wouldnt be able to lay out, but this is my 2nd choice and quite a lot of cash.
Dont do this to me! lol
Ells
1
#745
March 26th, 2009 20:08
Now personally Jonny Id say the opposite lol. Id got L’ami or Cornish Sett if ur backin ew, with preference going to L’ami. Altho hes finally beginnin to shorten now.
Ells
1
#746
March 26th, 2009 20:15
re: cb … and im just speculating there was rumour of a sale , if this has gone through and the powers that be are unsure of his participation until a new owner verifys this could trigger a drift??
#747
March 26th, 2009 20:17
or to be more accurate rumours of several people interested in buying him.
#748
March 26th, 2009 20:22
Dragonman are you that kid that use to sit behind me at school repeating stuff i use to say all day
#749
March 26th, 2009 21:03
Rambo 12s across the board now, chaps.
For P Smith, eeeh..I just don’t know, he clicks his fingers and… lol… there’s a dedicated thread for non runners on this site, but here is pasted for you:
Snoopy Loopy (IRE) 11 11-10 P Bowen 165 – OUT
Nozic (FR) 8 11-8 P F Nicholls 159 – OUT
Conna Castle (IRE) 10 10-3 James Joseph Mangan 140 – OUT
Roll Along (IRE) 9 11-4 C Llewellyn 160 – OUT
Stan (NZ) 10 11-3 Miss Venetia Williams 148 – OUT
King Johns Castle (IRE) 10 11-1 A L T Moore 151 – OUT
Hear The Echo (IRE) 8 11-2 M F Morris 149 – Very doubtful runner, going to fairyhouse
Afistfullofdollars (IRE) 11 11-9 N Meade 16 – Doubtful runner, trainer not keen to run with big weight
Ollie Magern 11 11-3 N A Twiston-Davies 151 – Doubtful runner, entered in other races at Aintree
Hot Weld 10 10-4 Ferdy Murphy 135 – Doubtful runner, off to Ayr
Parsons Legacy (IRE) 11 10-9 P J Hobbs 146 – Possible non-runner
Reveillez 10 10-9 Jonjo O’Neill 142 – Possible non-runner
Fleet Street 10 10-7 N J Henderson 142 – Possible non-runner
Can’t Buy Time (IRE) 7 10-6 Jonjo O’Neill 142 – Possible non-runner
#750
March 26th, 2009 21:04
Latest Aintree weather at 4pm today from racecourse, still ‘good to soft’…I think will turn out Good/Good to soft after drying out from WEds…Wot do u lot fink?
#751
March 26th, 2009 21:31
Nice one Jonny…I am on KB and SOP E/W.
I might have a bit on Character Building although not a fancy price now
#752
March 26th, 2009 21:59
you are all too kind and shame i dont now you all but i think we should all pool our winnings then split it as everyone has helped everyone what u think
#753
March 26th, 2009 22:18
ME AGAIN
having joined these cosy little chats this year i cant help thinking what was the outcome last year of all the chat, obviusly this years hot horse is RM but what was the talk last year was it COD or something else just curious as to see what the record is on this site
many thanks to all
#754
March 26th, 2009 22:21
last years was comply or die and d’argent top two horses i think ?
#755
March 26th, 2009 22:22
on the whole it was COD in our top 3 with most of us if i remember rightly.
#756
March 26th, 2009 22:25
what about the year before your not telling me that you all tipped silver birch at 33`s
#757
March 26th, 2009 22:29
I was on Silver Birch at 110s on Betfair when he won
#758
March 26th, 2009 22:36
Early indications of weather for next week -
Saturday – much colder winds coming from the north – possibility of rain/snow on east coast but probably not too much around Aintree.
Sunday,Monday,Tuesday – settled weather possibly warm for time of year so long as sun gets through early cloud.
Wednesday,Thursday,Friday – lower pressure areas moving in, increased winds – possibility of rain dificult to say exactly how much – highest possibility Friday.
Grand National Day – wind going round into the North and coming down from the artic again – turning much colder but probably no rain/snow around Aintree.
Looking this far out is distinctly iffy but thats what it looks like at the moment.
#759
March 26th, 2009 22:36
Latest TurfTrax going report suggests that the ground has got softer since Tuesday. On Tuesday it was good with a couple of good-soft patches and now it looks more like a 50:50 split. Next couple of days look unsettled so it could ease a little more over the weekend before drying out again in the early part of next week if the weather forecast is correct.
#760
March 26th, 2009 22:38
Been on last 4 GN winners, since i could legally bet. Anyone got any fancies for Scottish AND Irish GN. So i can but some doubles on with Rambo, havent seen Irish GN card yet – anyone know if Arbor Supreme is running. Or should we just focus on the GN for now!
#761
March 26th, 2009 22:41
Agree Stayer – will veer more to soft over next 4/5 days then will come back in again.
so they don’t go off TOO fast).
I think going will be Good/Good to Soft on the Big Day – perfect all round (good for Rambo too
#762
March 26th, 2009 23:22
puzzled says:
March 26, 2009 at 10:22 PM
on the whole it was COD in our top 3 with most of us if i remember rightly.
Bit of rewriting history there, some of the squeekeist wheels where going over cliffs on D’Argent, a few of us knew better. But yeah I think hardly anyone missed CoD near all had something on him. Think I was the only championing SP and Silver Birch (the poster not horse) championed Snowy Morning, everyone missed KJC, not that surprisingly! There is a thread still visable that admin put up before the race for everyones final selections if you search the archieves.
Fingers crossed this year is as profitable for everyone, hope people have been sensible and backed Rambling E/W as he might find one or two too good but fully confident that if he jumps he finishes top 4 can’t see it any other way, felt the same about Slim last year and was right!
#763
March 26th, 2009 23:36
Brody says:
March 26, 2009 at 11:22 PM
puzzled says:
March 26, 2009 at 10:22 PM
on the whole it was COD in our top 3 with most of us if i remember rightly.
Bit of rewriting history there, some of the squeekeist wheels where going over cliffs on D’Argent, a few of us knew better. But yeah I think hardly anyone missed CoD near all had something on him.
If hardly anyone missed and all had something on him then like you say….. then he must have been up there high on our lists, like top 3 with D’Argent and one or 2 others…..last years threads are there to be seen in the archives….may i suggest you look over them, i would hardly say i was re-writing history
#764
March 27th, 2009 00:14
Of those looking to lay horses my analysis says the following of the favourites cannot win as they have two big negatives each.
my will – french bred, weight
war of attrition – days since last run, weight
big fella thanks – 7 yr old novice, weight
hear the echo -strong gale, weight
#765
March 27th, 2009 00:20
surely people are only using these trends to find the likely winner. using these trends would probably make it nigh on impossible to predict the forecast / tricasts. does anyone have a process for this or any tips yet. i will be waiting for the withdrawals and lose anything with 2 major or minor negatives. it still makes it hard but i then whittle it down based on what i think are strong trends. never get it right though.
king johns castle blew me out last year as i had 1,3,5,13, PU.
#766
March 27th, 2009 00:26
FOR EVERYONE WHO IS ON OFFSHORE ACCOUNT THIS THREAD SHOULD GIVE YOU A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE FOR YOUR EACH WAY VALUE http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/5056816/Charlie-Swan-has-eyes-on-opening-Grand-National-account.html PLUS REPORTS FROM OTHER IRISH TRAINED HORSES.
#767
March 27th, 2009 00:53
let me bore you about french breds…..
in the last 10 years the only french bred to carry over 11st and get close, finishing 2nd, was Royal Auclair in 2005. most people recognise this as a strange national where no-one took and lead and there were about 15 in with a chance at the 3rd last. forget french breds over 11st.
under 11st they are getting close but aside from royal auclair look at the following
1999 – not relevant only 1 french bred runner
2000 – mely moss 2nd – 1st start of season misses all the stats. in my defence it was a hunter chases who had run at aintree
2001 – blowing wind 3rd. no form but obviously took a liking to aintree – and i saw it win before this at aintree and it was a huge horse with a huge arse. un-french like
2002 – blowing wind – had already run 3rd in a national
2003 – montifault 5th – had already run well round the fences
2004 – clan royal 2nd – aintree specialist already
2005 – royal auclair
2006 – clan royal 3rd – as above
2007 – liberthine 5th – already run well over fences
2008 – nadover 7th
i think you seriously have to believe in a frebch bred horse if it has never run around the national course before if you think it will finish 1st three
#768
March 27th, 2009 01:01
puzzled says:
March 26, 2009 at 11:36 PM
If hardly anyone missed and all had something on him then like you say….. then he must have been up there high on our lists, like top 3 with D’Argent and one or 2 others…..last years threads are there to be seen in the archives….may i suggest you look over them, i would hardly say i was re-writing history
OK rewriting history maybe slightly strong but I’m sure looking back at the archieves more was said about D’Argent that COD on balance and some were convinced into backing him due to the bigger odds available. Just think that mentioning the winner was widely tipped and not mentioning the widely tipped losers is teh kind of thing all the dodgy tipping line adverts in the RP do, highlight all their winners and keep hush-hush and their huge streaks of losers. A bit of balance never goes amiss.
#769
March 27th, 2009 01:05
Hi
Brody I haven’t backed any horses each way this year. I have done in previous 2 years and have had the winner both times. All the stats and trends show us the winner’s profile. Therefore I am choosing horses to win. Therefore this year I have decided to back to win only. Can’t be bothered faffing about. If I’d had just win bets on in previous years I’d be much richer. Not saying anybody is wrong for backing each way, just it would mean my win bets were halved.
Furthermore, I usually leave myself all green before the race. However this year I’m leaving my bets. I have a liability I can afford to lose, and im confident in one of my shortlist winning.
Much more ruthless betting from me this year. But I can stand the amount I’m liable to lose and I’d rather have much higher winnings for backing the winner. I’m going to have a tricast and forecast on the day as the horses with the best winners profile must therefore have a good chance of placing. I had Mckelvey and Silver Birch as my ante-post bets 2 years ago, with them being my 2 highest ranked on initial analysis. But yes you are right, Rambo has an outstanding chance of at least placing providing he doesn’t get unlucky in running.
P.S CB has shortened back up again now thankfully. Wonder what it was all about. Just annoyed I didnt put more on when he was 25s and higher. Couldnt risk it lol. Ah well.
Ells
1
#770
March 27th, 2009 01:05
btw, has anyone mentioned the similarity between Bewley’s Berry GN runs and Butler’s Cabin last GN run? Look at BB’s run in 2007 and then BC’s in 2008 near identical and then in 2008 I backed BB on the strength of his strong showing upto beechers second time in 2007 only to find out he tanked out after the second last, again I’ve backed BC on the strength of last years run… I wonder if history will repeat itself again and we see BC tank after the second last!
#771
March 27th, 2009 01:16
@Lough: Actually its not quite double as you still get paid out on the place stake at 1/4, but I take the point that £20 on the nose pays much more handsomely than £10 E/W/
E/W v WIN only is a thorny one and I don’t think there is a correct answer. I’ve not the courage to stick out the long losing streaks and near misses that Win only betting produces so generally am happier to take more frequent and smaller pay outs than the less frequent but bigger pay outs. And I think for any less serious once a year pnuter E/W is definitely the way to go as its nice to have a winner even if you don’t maximise the return.
One day I will get more disciplined at this game and keep comprehensive spreadsheets and will be able to compare my results if I’d backed win V EW and I think you might well be right that in the long run win could be more profitable. But then you also have to take it on a horse by horse basis as a sound horse like CB who finishes top 3 in 3/4 of his runs but sometimes edged out in a finish is clearly a EW for me whereas a dodgy jumper with class is W/O all the way eg Butlers.
#772
March 27th, 2009 03:35
Yer sorry, almost double. I don’t think one is more suitable than the other. Its merely my personal preference for this race this year. In many of my other betting exploits I do bet e/w. However with the amount of research I put into this race and the fact that all my research is aimed at finding the winner I see no point anymore in backing each way, other to give myself some excitement on the day. Plus, in normal races I’m only going to have 1 maybe 2 horses. In the National Im going to have around 6 running for me. If I lose I won’t be too bad. I’ll only be more gutted if I have nothin to cheer home come the last couple of fences – never had that feeling lol. This is my absolute favourite race and its as much (well, more) about the excitement than it is the money.
If one of my 6-7 comes 2nd I can’t see myself whining over not backing e/w as I’d be unlikely to be getting any profit anyways – if I was backing all of them e/w (Unless 2 or 3 placed). Id rather back win on my main bets and maybe a couple of savers on potential outside winners i.e. Southern Vic or Darkness (I mean outside chances in my eyes, not odds-wise).
In conclusion I’m pretty sure I can pick around 8 out of the field that can win it. I have win bets on 6. And thens saver bets to cover my stake on a couple of upsets. Id rather this than have mayb 4 e/w and still not get my money back if one places.
But yes I agree, there is no right or wrong, merely a preference. And I would advise all novice/fun gamblers to bet e/w. Its a 40 horse field after all lol.
Getting really excited now. Watched all the archives on BBC tonight
Ells
1
#773
March 27th, 2009 05:09
Southern Vic – Just a thought
I have him in my top 6 but for ages I have been trying to get a handle on him. He doesn’t match Crisp 73/ Stephens profile of the last 30 winners, yet now I think he could be the new improved Slim Pickings of this race. Slim 2nd. by 2L. with 10.08 in ’07 almost broke the stats. Only 2 chase wins, with 1 at 24f. and a low £17K. chase win to his name. His 4th. last yr. with 11.03 proved how good he was. Now SV may not take to the 36f. as good as Slim but if he does he should go close. SV beat Slim in 4 chases in ’05/’06,- Slim was 2nd.,F., 4th.,and PU. SV’s profile going into this race looks better than Slims did. He fits 11 of Stephens 12 main stats but as I said, not the last one – 5th Hen etc. So maybe 30 yrs. is long enough and it’s time for a change.
#774
March 27th, 2009 05:39
Sorry.. Slim was 3rd. by 2L. in 2007 GN.
#775
March 27th, 2009 06:22
never posted on this site before only bet on national but love the race, got 5 out of last 10 winners think it all started with bobby jo this as left me 6 grand in profit only bet to win love the odds available on race. This year put my bet on COD again believing he would run off 10 stone 10lbs and bet early, you lot were spot on with weight rises. Switched support to Rambo now you have convinced me stand to win 7 grand if he wins will lose £250 if he doesnt would say on balance is worth the risk. Last bet took 12/1 at boyles sport placed £50 to win bet got free £50 bet for openning account so still able to get 24/1 at this late stage, but for win only.
#776
March 27th, 2009 07:11
On the win versus each way debate…
Depending on how many horses you are backing you don’t have to put the same amount each way
For example if you have £10 to bet and like a horse at 20/1 rather than £5 each way you could bet on a ratio of 3:1
So 3:1 would be £7.50 to win and £2.50 to place (or £5 to win and £2.50 each way on the same horse)
If it gets placed you make a £5 profit (£15 back) but if it wins you make a £162.50 profit (£172.50 back)
Putting £5 each way would make a £20 profit on a place and a £125 profit on a win.
So the 3:1 gives you greater rewards for a win, whilst still provides adequate cover for your stake should it be placed.
The ratio to which you bet can be determined by the price (bigger ratios for larger prices)
This type of strategy is normally only advisable if you have one or two bets because otherwise it can be difficult to cover your stakes
But worthwhile to play around with the numbers first rather than blindly lumping the same amount on to win as to place
Especialy as the trends for places are… well there are no trends for placed horses!
#777
March 27th, 2009 07:35
Of the 40 horses to have won or been placed in the last 10 years only 3 have done so at 50/1 or bigger
Philson Run 4th @ 100/1 (2007)
Simply Gifted 3rd @ 66/1 (2005)
Brave Highlander 4th @ 50/1 (2000)
So while many do not comply with trends they are generally not no-hopers in the market
#778
March 27th, 2009 07:53
Interesting to note when making one’s Exacta and Tricast bets. Good work Pablo!
#779
March 27th, 2009 08:07
With the e.w/win debate for me i guess it all depends on what price your horse is. I managed to get some bets struck at 40′s for Rambo well to me 10/1 place money is very good, £10e.w returns £110 for a place.
I also got special combined odds of 300/1 for Character building for the kim Muir and national double, only had £5 e.w but 75/1 place money is great for a horse currently 12-14/1 so is guess e.w betting for me is only worth while in an antipost market where big prices are freely available.
#780
March 27th, 2009 08:33
Re win or e/w : I suppose it depends on whether you are trying to make a profit or just find the winner. For me, it’s all about getting the winner so I’m not fussed about e/w bets, have always backed 3 or 4 to win. Have got 7 out of last 11 winners, but i admit i was cursing a bit when the jockey lost the whip (and lost 1st place) on clan royal. Especially when i also backed him the yr he got carried out when clear of the field! So i can understand people wanting to do e/w bets if profit margins are important.
#781
March 27th, 2009 08:46
Normally just try to find the winner myself but thought that Rambling Minster a cracking each way bet to cover stakes at 25/1
4 pts win 1pt place
But would advise only betting each way if you think a horse has a REALISTIC CHANCE OF WINNING – otherwise bet more on the Tote to place (or Betfair etc) and have a little on to win just in case (because you will kick yourself if it does)
#782
March 27th, 2009 08:49
Looking for some help on the likely runners, I did sneak £5 on WOA when he was 65 and now looking to back some lively outsiders as the odds now on the favourites are quite low, Silver Birch and Chelsea Harbour appear to be drifting the same with Conna Castle, is it likely any of these 3 will race?
Or Niche market, musicalbella or hobbs hill
Not sure with the weights if anyone has an idea what outsiders may sneak in?
#783
March 27th, 2009 08:50
Clearly the above does not apply to ante-post bets struck at long odds ages ago
#784
March 27th, 2009 09:11
I read with great interest last year without contributing and this site was all over CoD. It certainly lead me to back CoD and made me do my own homework for this year. There were shouts for D’Argent but concensus was that all trends pointed to these two but CoD was the choice as D’Argent wasn’t proven over the trip. The whole thread is available for anyone to see in “How to narrow down the GN field”.
#785
March 27th, 2009 09:20
National Punter,
The interesting one that’s lurking in that “might get in, might not get in” area is Maljimar, who has been mentioned by myself and Dragonman. He’s the one that could be worth a look if he gets in.
#786
March 27th, 2009 09:24
Miinnehoma. I think there are two with major chances of upsetting ‘winner profile’, top5 hennessey etc.
Southern Vic and Darkness.
Interestingly Darkness shares a profile similar to Red Rum ’73 and Lucius ’78, the last two winners not to share ‘winner profile’. These two had both won a handful of chases at 24f/27f- Darkness has won four- and Rummy had ran in a Scots National(that race again, does seem to be a plus to fail!)
I did mention on earlier post that Southern Vic bears more than a passing resemblance to Specify ’71 who didn’t have winner profile. Specify fell in previous National- SV had aintree experience in Becher- and both had only won at 24f but had regularly competed in top class races.
#787
March 27th, 2009 09:25
national punter says:
March 27, 2009 at 8:49 AM
Looking for some help on the likely runners, I did sneak £5 on WOA when he was 65 and now looking to back some lively outsiders as the odds now on the favourites are quite low, Silver Birch and Chelsea Harbour appear to be drifting the same with Conna Castle, is it likely any of these 3 will race?
Or Niche market, musicalbella or hobbs hill
Not sure with the weights if anyone has an idea what outsiders may sneak in?
Silver Birch and Musica Bella should run barring injury, Conna Castle is a bit doubtful as the trainer was quite negative about his chances of seeing out the trip after the last run, also last run must be too close to the big race really. Not heard anything at all on the other three which you could take as a positive or a negative. As for who will get in I think down to Idle Talk is pretty safe to get a run and possibly even to Maljimar. Niche Market looks very doubtful to get in but stranger things have happened, if he is balloted out or you bet with someone NRNB you should get your stakes back anyway.
#788
March 27th, 2009 09:25
Change in the weather
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp
Instead of raining until clearing from next Weds onwards, there is now only sporadic rain today & 2mo and virtually none from Sun onwards – yipee (for me a Parson’s lover lol) so looks like hopefully Good on the day – Good to Soft at worst.
#789
March 27th, 2009 09:42
hi this is the 1st year ive really studied the horses for the grand national but really getting into it.. this site hasreally helped.
Ive Done
Rambing Minster
Character Building
Irish Invader
Kilbeggan Blade
Cornish Sett
looking for one or two more with big odds.. liked the look of niche market if he managed to get in.. if he dosent get in can anyone suggest another horse?
#790
March 27th, 2009 09:42
Adding to weather info – both Weds and Thurs are mainly sunny 14degrees, Fri 11degrees and race day is back up to 14degrees.
Lookin’ good for GOOD
#791
March 27th, 2009 10:15
Character Building is off on another walk!
#792
March 27th, 2009 10:17
Admin,
How come my posts from yesterday afternoon have been taking off?
Gazza85,
I would suggest looking at Darkness, Himalayan trail, Parsons Legacy and Brooklyn Brownie
#793
March 27th, 2009 10:19
I’ve got a spreadsheet which I do every year. Scores points for loads of factors (distance won, class won, form, consistency, stayed on etc etc) and deducts points for many factors such as weight, age etc etc (basically the main trends). Won’t bore you with the details but just to say that in the last 15 years the winner has never been out of the top 6 on my scores (In 2007 Silver Birch and Mckelvey came 2nd and 3rd in the list) This year I’ve done it down to Niche Market and co which is about 60 runners (off the top of my head as sheet is at home)
regarding the runners at the bottom of the weights the only 2 which even cross my radar are Maljimar and Niche Market. However, Maljimar is only 17th and Niche Market is 21st so am not that worried about them
Suprisingly, Conna Castle came 6th but probably won’t be running!!
#794
March 27th, 2009 10:21
btw Is it the Five/six-day confirmation stage on March 30 or the final declaration stage at 10.00am, April 2 that the final 40 are declared along with the 2 or 3 official stand-bys?
I think it’s on the 2nd April isn’t it?.
#795
March 27th, 2009 10:29
Does anyone know where I can view older Grand Nationals? I specifically want to watch two of them:
1. Red Marauder race because it was very entertaining with all the fallers
2. Race where Clan Royal was taken out by the loose horse (Run for Paddy I believe?!)
I don’t mind paying 20p to watch on Racing Post but they don’t seem to go back that far. they used to be on YouTube but can’t find them now
#796
March 27th, 2009 10:32
It was stated earlier in the week that mouse morris looked likely to send only one of his two horses and he was favouring towards WoA but having read the following link
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/war-of-attrition-d-n-russell-aintree-grand-national-russell-hoping-for-first-grand-national-with-war/173699/grandnationalmeeting/
And reading between the lines towards the end of the story Morris is quoted as saying that if he was still riding he wouldn’t mind being on either of the horses!!!
Am i reading to much into this or is it looking like he really is sending both to line up on the day.
Hope so at least i’ll get a bit of run for my very early punt on HTE
#797
March 27th, 2009 10:33
Speedyseagull, whats your top 6 this year?
#798
March 27th, 2009 10:35
Speedyseagull if you look on the bbc archive pages they have some old videos on there of the grand national.
Easiest way to find them is to google ‘grand national xxxx bbc video’ where xxxx is the year you want.
Please dont put xxxx video in google as i will not be held responsible for the sites that come up
#799
March 27th, 2009 10:38
The 2005 race is on here speedyseagull
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/4428315.stm
#800
March 27th, 2009 10:39
and 2001 race is here
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/in_depth/2001/grand_national/1265836.stm
#801
March 27th, 2009 10:39
Cheers Brian
Top 6 this year on the sheet:
1. Rambling Minster
2. Darkness
3. Irish Invader
4. Character Building
5. Southern Vic
6. Conna Castle (likely NR)
7. Kilbeggan Blade
This is from memory but think it is right. Loads of points are taken off for not having won chase over 3m so it is surprising that Irish Invader is still right up there!
#802
March 27th, 2009 10:45
Yes Showlad – 2 April.
Couple of other comments having read back over what I’ve missed in the last couple of days;
1) How many horses do people usually have running for them on the day? It seems from comments on this thread, mostly between 4-6. Unsurprising then that everyone seemingly has a good track record of backing GN winners as you cover 10-15% of the entire field and probably upwards of 25% once the no-hopers are ruled out!
2) Horses of interest that may sneak in at the bottom of the weights – anyone fancy Kelami? I know he’s a dreaded FR bred, but a proven stayer…
Looking forward to the big day now, I have ante-post bets on Rambo and Darkness both EW at 40/1, and will probably have another bet on the day once the final runners and ground are known
#803
March 27th, 2009 10:50
If you back horses at big enought prices early doors, you can afford to have 4-6 selections as you know Gammers
#804
March 27th, 2009 10:53
Gemmers,
I normally have 5-7 running for me on the day, the majority of which have been backed at long odds well in advance. You only need one to win to make a very handsome profit.
Kelami is not a proven stayer. Mick Fitz stated that the horse didn’t stay after pulling him up in the 2007 race. He’s also been in poor form since switching stables though they were hurdle races admittedly.
#805
March 27th, 2009 10:58
Speedyseagull cAN YOU POST IN FULL YOUR TOP 10 WITH TOTaL POINTS GIVEN? Your spredsheet seeems to have good results -I must use one next year.
I agree with your list other than Irish Invader who i will have to review again as its in your top six.
#806
March 27th, 2009 10:59
Im hoping Kelami doesn’t get in as every year he has run i have had a bet on him as i really thought he would turn into a national horse and every year i have been disappointed by his runs.
So knowing my luck he will get in and i will be firm and say enough is enough and wont back him and then he’ll jump round blindfolded and walk over the line with a glass of wine in hand smoking a cigar asking why no other horses couldn’t keep up with him.
#807
March 27th, 2009 11:00
Brian says:
March 27, 2009 at 10:32 AM
And reading between the lines towards the end of the story Morris is quoted as saying that if he was still riding he wouldn’t mind being on either of the horses!!!
Am i reading to much into this or is it looking like he really is sending both to line up on the day.
Hope so at least i’ll get a bit of run for my very early punt on HTE
Brian the one thing that is a major positive for HTE running is his price hasn’t taken a huge walk in the market on betfair, usually someone in the know will be forcing the price out on all NRs before it is confirmed in the press and doesn’t seem to have happened with HTE, although he is a bit longer than he was. So hopes definitely not dead I’d say Mouse Morris doesn’t seem that straightforward with the press so anything he says should be taken with a huge handful of salt. Having said that still think he is off to Fairyhouse and if I was a dodgy type would place lay him.
#808
March 27th, 2009 11:02
Character building has drifted out with sky bet now.
They have put him to 16′s.
Small movement i agree but still unusual
#809
March 27th, 2009 11:09
Oedipe says:
March 27, 2009 at 10:15 AM
Character Building is off on another walk!
Currently £11 available at 17/1 best price being laid? Is that a walk!
#810
March 27th, 2009 11:10
Systemsman – yep, will do later when I get home. Unfortunately my my Home Office computer system doesn’t allow me to access external spreadsheets here’! In fact I’m suprised I can get on this site as nothing else remotely racing or betting related is allowed!
Obviously the spreadsheet is fairly crude as is just my choice as to how many points to allocate for each aspect, but seems to work
Comply or Die only came 3rd last year but still good enough!
#811
March 27th, 2009 11:12
Hi all,
Just like to say a quick thank you for all the hugely valuable info on the site, much appreciated. I’ve followed the general consensus and had a fair bet on Rambo as well as savers on Kilbeggan Blade and Himalayan Trail. Never had the GN winner despite being at Aintree the past few years so would love to get it this year! I normally do very well at Cheltenham but just can’t seem to get the form right for the GN so hopefully you’ll have all helped me out!
I just wondered if anyone has any opinions on where the value still is in the back to lay market? I’ve just spread stakes on Parsons Legacy (50), Brooklyn Brownie (48), Cornish Sett (75) and Maljimar (75) as I’m fairly hopeful that they’ll shorten up at some point and leave me green for the race. Any thoughts?
#812
March 27th, 2009 11:14
thinking of adding irish invader to the army ….but…… no wins over 3 miles …… and …… 7 runs this season?
#813
March 27th, 2009 11:26
L’ami odds are droppin grapidly this morning.
Any news there? has AP chosen his horse?
#814
March 27th, 2009 11:32
mcmanus has reported that he intends to run all four remaining entries in the national.
#815
March 27th, 2009 11:36
This morning Frank Berry has basically said that Butler’s Cabin, Can’t Buy Time, L’Ami and Reveillez are all very likely to take their chance next week. I guess the market is reacting to this, as with the withdrawal of GC there was previously a doubt over L’Ami’s participation.
#816
March 27th, 2009 11:37
Where is the link for JP’s comments please?
#817
March 27th, 2009 11:41
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/butler-s-cabin-can-t-buy-time-l-ami-j-p-mc-manus-aintree-grand-national-mcmanus-four-in-good-form-ahead-of-grand-national/173701/top/
there you go.
#818
March 27th, 2009 11:50
Still worried Frank Berry never mentioned Reveillez in his summing up.
My 5 at the moment;
Rambling Minster 4pts win
State Of Play 2pts win
Southern Vic 1pt win
Darkness 1pt e/w
Reveillez 2pts e/w
#819
March 27th, 2009 11:50
I’d controversially suggest Reveillez has the best chance of the 4 McManus runners. I just can’t have Irish Invader at all based on the no win over 3 miles stat. That might come come back to haunt me though!
#820
March 27th, 2009 11:57
Hi all
Woke up this mornin to find L’ami has shortened across the board, both on Betfair and with bookies. Yep, read the article on Racing Post
With regards to Gammers comments about number of runners I have to agree with the others. Can easily afford to have 6 or so running for you when your only backing to win and you’re getting good ante-post prices.
Oh and with regards to Kelami. Had him penned down last year, was my 2nd favourite bet outside of Comply and Die. When friends asked me what they should bet on I woulf say Cod or Kelami as your outsider. Wasn’t he 2nd or 3rd in Racing Post Chase. Really fancied him. Anyways was very interested in his performances this year with new stable, but has been poor and can’t be having any of it. Much less chance than previous years.
Ells
1
#821
March 27th, 2009 11:59
Oh, and you have to laugh at some of the comments you see on other sites and stuff. So many comments about how War of Attrition’s weight doesn’t matter and how he will hammer normal horses like Rambo lol. It does make me chuckle. (Admin this wasn’t insulting anyone just so you know
just a light hearted comment).
Ells
1
#822
March 27th, 2009 12:02
I too have a spreadsheet which goes back 10 years
Used to use more basic system but let the odd one through like COD (blinkers) last year – so decided to award points for positive traits common to most National winners since 1990 rather than applying the red line treatment (there are 20 in all and each horse scores 0, 1 or 2 points depending how near they are to meeting the trend – i.e. before recent Cheltenham victory Character Building got 1 point for RPR of 143, but now gets 2 because RPR is 150)
All National winners since 1990 (with the exception of Red Marauder have won with 31 points or more) – many appear in the top two – but as many people are aware with recent performance of Pension funds in the financial markets – historical performance is not necessarily a predictor of future outcomes
And of course with any trends system there is an element of back-fitting and the exception that hopefully proves the rule in Red Marauder
Results:
1999
35 BOBBYJO – 1
31 Call It A Day – 3
31 Earth Summit – 8
31 Nahthen Lad – 11
31 Eudipe – F
31 Fiddling The Facts – F
31 Double Thriller – F
2000
34 PAPILLON – 1
34 Micko’s Dream – F
32 Hollybank Buck – 10
31 Bobbyjo – 11
31 Kendal Cavalier – 12
2001
32 Papillon – 4
32 Hollybank Buck – F
(29 RED MARAUDER – 1)
2002
33 BINDAREE – 1
32 David’s Lad – F
31 Samuel Wilderspin – F
2003
36 MONTY’S PASS – 1
33 Supreme Glory – 2
33 Youlneverwalkalone – P
31 Gunner Welburn – 4
2004
35 AMBERLEIGH HOUSE – 1
35 Jurancon II – F
33 Hedgehunter – F
32 Joss Naylor – P
32 Bindaree – U
31 Clan Royal – 2
31 Monty’s Pass – 4
31 Gunner Welburn – P
2005
34 HEDGEHUNTER – 1
34 It Takes Time – 4
34 Marcus Du Berlais – U
32 Forest Gunner – 5
32 Nil Desperandum – 6
32 Spot Thedifference – 18
31 Amberleigh House – 10
31 Take The Stand – U
2006
37 NUMBERSIXVALVERDE – 1
34 Silver Birch – F
32 Hedgehunter – 2
32 Nil Desperandum – 4
31 Innox – F
31 Jack High – U
2007
36 Simon – F
34 SILVER BIRCH – 1
32 Numbersixvalverde – 6
31 Jack High – F
31 Joes Edge – P
31 Eurotrek – P
2008
37 COMPLY OR DIE – 1
32 Cloudy Lane – 6
32 Chelsea Harbour – 9
32 Mr Pointment – P
32 Simon – U
31 Kelami – U
2009 top 11
37 Rambling Minster
36 Black Apalachi
34 Southern Vic
31 Kilbeggan Blade
31 State Of Play
31 My Will
31 War Of Attrition
30 Himalayan Trail
30 Character Building
29 Darkness
29 Cornish Sett
Because there are 6 points up for grabs for breeding the system can be unkind to French sires (who have no great record in the race), but there are some French Breds in the list most years
Please don’t ask me to list all the attributes because a lot of work has gone into this
#823
March 27th, 2009 12:03
“Lough ‘ So Tough’ Derg says:
March 27, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Oh, and you have to laugh at some of the comments you see on other sites and stuff. So many comments about how War of Attrition’s weight doesn’t matter and how he will hammer normal horses like Rambo lol. It does make me chuckle. (Admin this wasn’t insulting anyone just so you know just a light hearted comment). ”
Indeed and a site tipping slim pickings for … THIS YEARS NATIONAL !!!
#824
March 27th, 2009 12:04
Not that I’ve backed him but Irish Invader has won a 3m race over hurdles
#825
March 27th, 2009 12:15
Nice post Pablo. Very interesting and informative. Are your scorings for 2009 subject to any further change depending on final weights or ground?
#826
March 27th, 2009 12:21
Great post pablo very interesting stats if you take the top 6 from each year …. ominously MY WILL is still hanging around for this year.
#827
March 27th, 2009 12:22
Other bookies crumbled. Lami 33s with all bookies now. 16s with and 18s with Sky Bet Coral
. Surely that’s more than just McManus’ comments on Racing Post this site this morning, you would expect Betfair maybe to react to that a bit but not every single bookies? Also the McCoy’s mount market has disappeared.
I think McCoy’s chosen L’ami. Get on Betfair at 39/1 while you can lads
Ells
1
#828
March 27th, 2009 12:23
Whitearab – not ground – I think that is best tackled on the day – for example I haven’t had a penny on Black Apalachi and would only do so if the heavens opened
However weight and position in the betting market are updated – as was each horse’s performance at Cheltenham or wherever else it ran
Clearly the betting market can go crazy on the day and would echo Systemsman’s advice to keep some money back for a plunge horse on the day (if you remotely fancy it of course)
#829
March 27th, 2009 12:27
2009 top 12
37 Rambling Minster
36 Black Apalachi
34 Southern Vic
31 Kilbeggan Blade
31 State Of Play
31 My Will
31 War Of Attrition
30 Himalayan Trail
30 Character Building
30 L’Ami
29 Darkness
29 Cornish Sett
Sorry missed L’Ami – not aftertiming after Lough Derg’s post honestly! Interesting market move – would get to the 31 points if it continues
#830
March 27th, 2009 12:28
Good post Pablo. Encouraging to see that the two previous times that a horse scored 37 they went on to win!
#831
March 27th, 2009 12:30
Thanks Pablo. I have not backed Black Apalachi either but he was always going to be an on the day investment for me – if at all. I think he may be weighted out of it now. Interestingly, he is the only one of your top 5 I have not already backed and I use a similar analysis system. I may be wrong but I won’t be having a penny on My Will, WOA or L’Ami – regardless of what happens!
#832
March 27th, 2009 12:35
God, my ‘worry horse’ State of Play seems to be popular with most people on here! Is there anyone apart from me who hasn’t backed it?! Might have to have a cheeky small stakes bet on the day!
#833
March 27th, 2009 12:37
I was gonna say Pablo, he fits pretty much every trend, was surprised he wasnt on the list. I honestly think McCoy’s chosen him. Every single bookie has shortened, with 2 coming in to 16s and 18s? Plus the McCoy ride market disappears off Oddschecker? Im gonna get a bit more on Betfair with a view to laying out. No way McCoys ride will be over 20/1 on the day of the race.
Ells
1
#834
March 27th, 2009 12:45
I had a sizeable bet on it seagull but that was with a view to laying some off closer to the time as at the time we were led to believe he was a gtd runner (turns out that wasn’t necessarily true, although it is now) and I knew his price would shorten. However I now don’t think he will win it and he doesn’t make my shortlist. Therefore I will be laying out my stake plus some profit providing his price continus to contract.
Ells
1
#835
March 27th, 2009 12:47
Whitearab – agreed about My Will and WOA (would have backed at 11’0 but too high)
L’Ami – my head says non-stayer (tailed off behind Silver Birch) but a nagging doubt that maybe he’s more stamina now he’s older
However, I am happy with RM, SV and SOP
#836
March 27th, 2009 12:49
Just read in te racing post in the bookies where they state Mccoy riding Butlers Cabin again. not sure if this is official. Its with the artical on how Ramblings in top form for a national run ?
#837
March 27th, 2009 12:49
Character Building ruled out of Grand National:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/character-building-ruled-out-of-grand-national/173757/
#838
March 27th, 2009 12:53
CHARACTER BUILDING, one of the favourites for the John Smith’s Grand National, is set to miss the race.
The John Quinn-trained grey, winner of the Kim Muir Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, has succumbed to lameness in a foot and, having been unable to exercise fully since Tuesday, will not be ready for Aintree. He is now to be aimed at the Irish Grand National.
Quinn said: “We had a press day on Monday and he was absolutely fine, but we weren’t altogether happy with him the following morning and he hasn’t cantered since.
“He may be able to start cantering again on Monday, but by then he’d have missed a vital week’s work, and it wouldn’t be fair to the horse to run him in the National, after that sort of preparation. It’s best if everyone knows now that he won’t be running.”
Quinn added: “Obviously, it is very disappointing for me and everybody in the yard, and particularly for the owners, but these things happen with horses.
“It’s nothing major – it’s in his foot – and if he comes right, and I’m happy with him, he’ll go for the Irish National. And, if not, and we need a bit more time, then we’ll look at the Scottish Grand National.”
#839
March 27th, 2009 12:56
Right, CB was in my top 6 list and one which I had not backed. Will adjust and post top 6 in my sheet this evening
#840
March 27th, 2009 13:01
Lost a bit of anti-post money on that but look on the bright side its one less serious threat for Rambling !!!
#841
March 27th, 2009 13:01
Hard luck to all the Character Building backers. I had a small saver on him myself.
The vibes didn’t look good on Betfair the last 2 days, so at least this puts it to bed.
With a fancied runner comming out that will also lead to some shortening in other places.
Separate topic – much has been made about Black Apalachi needing soft ground, but isn’t this even more the case for Southern Vic? Has this horse ever been run on anything approaching good ground?
#842
March 27th, 2009 13:06
I too had a small saver on CB but I am disappointed for those like Stephen, who I know quite fancied him and backed him.
#843
March 27th, 2009 13:09
Ouch. That’s all I’ve got to say. GC was annoyin cos I fancied it and had had some reasonable money on. But that hurt
2nd ranked horse out the race. 2nd biggest bet! Rambo better do this on Saturday or I’m not gonna be a happy bunny 
Ells
1
#844
March 27th, 2009 13:12
Character Building once again proves the dangers of getting your fingers burned Ante Post.
On a side note, I’ve just been up to Aintree to pick my tickets up for the Thursday. Saturday has now fully sold out for the main part of the course. You can still get in the enclosure in the centre of the course for £17 though.
The credit crunch certainly isn’t affecting us Scouse race goers!
If I have a good day on Thursday, I’ll have to pick some tickets up on Ebay now for the Saturday! BRING IT ON!!!
#845
March 27th, 2009 13:12
Speaking from a personal point of view, and I feel for all those connected with CB, but he is the one I just could not figure out.
Had the tiniest of saver bets, so im not too disappointed he’s out as he was the one I feared the most.
Makes picking 5 horses for a trifecta easier though!
I would pick;
Rambling Minster
Butlers Cabin
State of Play
Cornish Sett
Darkness
….but ill probably change my mind tomorrow.
10p trifecta on 5 horses costs £6. I think I am right in thinking that in the past 5 years that would pay out a minimum of £45 (ish) and max of £2,200!
#846
March 27th, 2009 13:13
Someone on the Betfair forum posted up a link to this site http://www.freewebs.com/grandnationalanorak/
At first glance it looks very informative and maybe worth a link from the homepage, admin?
#847
March 27th, 2009 13:15
I’m about 90% sure that McCoy has chosen L’ami by the way. Bet365 gone from 33s to 25s to 18s in less than an hour. Only 4 bookies still at 33s now.
Ells
1
#848
March 27th, 2009 13:18
Make that 3 – Tote into 20s. What a hectic day we’re having.
Ells
1
#849
March 27th, 2009 13:20
Thing is today the sun runs a story saying that the trainer is trying to be the first trainer to win the Lincoln (blythe knight) and the National (Character building)and that it is a 400/1 win double.
I wonder how many folk went out this morning and took this double?
If the trainer knew from Tuesday that all was not well then why did he leave it till Friday to say so, or rather why did he leave it to the exchanges to make us aware all was not well.
So to move on……. what with all these horses now dropping like flies, others are now going to enter the picture that maybe 3 weeks ago we had not looked at because at the time they were to far down the packing order and could not get in for a run.
Any ideas on who we might now have to consider?
#850
March 27th, 2009 13:22
AS MY previous link i don’t know if anyone has got todays racing post but it read to me like he’d chosen Butlers Cabin ?
#851
March 27th, 2009 13:30
Grrr, signed up to Will Hills moments too late to get the lat of the 33s available. Having an absolute mare today. First CB gets withdrawn – big loss. Then miss out on decent bet on L’ami by seconds lol. I’m about 98% sure by the way now. There is no other explanation for the sudden drop.
Ells
1
#852
March 27th, 2009 13:32
if mccoy has chosen lami though how come butlers is still short odds??
#853
March 27th, 2009 13:37
Because people still feel he has a chance. If you look on Betfair tho, his are the only odds to have stayed the same following CB’s withdrawal. To be honest I think its a certainty. There’s no way the bookis would have reacted like unless it was something major. I’ll be astounded if its not the reason.
Ells
1
#854
March 27th, 2009 13:47
Or maybe L’Ami has grown a pair of wings overnight?
Be a surprising decision from AP to get off Butlers Cabin. The horse was travelling well last year before exiting at Bechers on the 2nd circuit. He hasn’t shone since, but there was nothing flashy in his build-up last season either.
I don’t see how L’Ami can be a better horse than last year. He’s competed in a handful of cross country races since he fell in last year’s race, and he’s only managed a solitary win in those when sent off at 1/2 for an £8k contest.
All makes for better prices about the others.
#855
March 27th, 2009 13:48
Just for arguments sake lets say AP has choosen L’ami.
Now for all those that have got some money on BC (me included) does it increase or decrease BC’s chances of winning / placing?
DISCLAIMER: I DO NOT KNOW FOR CERTAIN THAT MCCOY HAS CHOOSEN L’AMI SO PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE ME ON THAT ALTHOUGH AS I WAS THE FIRST TO POINT OUT THAT IT LOOKS THAT WAY THEN I WILL TAKE FULL CREDIT OF BEING THE FIRST TO REPORT IT ON HERE IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE HA HA
#856
March 27th, 2009 13:49
I think you’re right Lough. The thing is Butlers Cabin is 13 lbs wrong in the handicap is he not? Horses win the National by being a few pounds well in, I can’t remember one whp has been so badly handicapped. L’Ami has great trends, good e/w shout, can he win, who knows!
#857
March 27th, 2009 13:51
Just been to newsagents and read article again.
the article read as follows.
Corals have reported support for Tony McCoys Mount Butlers Cabin for the Grand National as he bids again to win the national.
Not saying this articles right or anyone else is wrong just pointing out that quite a few of us have had our fingers burnt today and i for one am going to exercise some caution for once lol !!!
#858
March 27th, 2009 13:54
I did think there was a chance the other day when I posted interview with McCoy. He had told the journalist not to forget about L’ami:
“I haven’t spoken to JP about it yet and you have to look at all the pros and cons. King Johns Castle was second last year, and you’d have to think about L’Ami as well.”
In last year’s National, an early fall from L’Ami ended the career of Mick Fitzgerald, who suffered spinal injuries. McCoy, however, seems impervious to such an ill omen. “Fitzy’s one of my best friends, but what happened last year doesn’t make me think, I’m not riding L’Ami. If L’Ami’s the one, then L’Ami’s the one.”
Good for those of us on L’ami as it proves that there is confidence in him and doesn’t look good for Butlers Cabin supporters. McCoy chose a relative outsider who has already failed twice over him. Ive not liked BC since day 1 tho, so on a personal level – Im happy about it.
Ells
1
#859
March 27th, 2009 13:59
Could have all been sparked off by the piece on the RP site this morning http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/butler-s-cabin-can-t-buy-time-l-ami-j-p-mc-manus-aintree-grand-national-mcmanus-four-in-good-form-ahead-of-grand-national/173701/grandnationalmeeting/
If you were to read into JP’s managers comments there it would come accross that Lami was the most fancied.
#860
March 27th, 2009 14:08
gosh! just checking in for the first time in 5 days although it feels longer! been too busy, but actually needed a break as it was sending me crazy thinking I’ve backed the wrong 5 from my list of 10.
Well its lucky for me I didn’t put any on CB, had such mixed feelings about this one, but I was very worried I wasn’t on it!
bad luck for all of you who went for CB.
I am still gutted with GC not running! and think the only reason he isn’t is because he is such a sure bet in his own field, think it is a real missed opportunity, but a risk too far for his connections.
L’Ami has come right in!.. and I am not on! even though I have been interested in this one this year… damn!? but still concerned he won’t stay, made no move after he ran at cheltenham as I thought he was really puffing after the finish, even tho he looked like he could give more, I think he is a nervous thinker too, so unsure what Tony will get out of him. Could go either way? May be his ideal jockey?
#861
March 27th, 2009 14:12
Absolutely and completely gutted about Character Building more for connections and the horse rather than my own financial loss. After last years disappointment nobody deserved it more than they did. Feel sick
#862
March 27th, 2009 14:19
Well said Brody. He was toe to toe with Rambling on stats, I think he had a massive chance. Such a shame for the Quinn yard. Third time lucky 2010.
#863
March 27th, 2009 14:22
I saw that article when I got up this morning shark, and thought there was a slight chance. But I’ve never seen such a market move based on a small article. When a mainstream tipster tips something up on the day of the race then yes. But this was purely an article over-viewing JP’s horses. Furthemore the bookies actually reacted before Betfair which would indicate it even more. Some of the bookies withdrew GC the day before any of us knew he had been withdrawn, but Betfair’s market didn’t move too much. Someone could do with ringing up one of the bookies and asking for a price on L’ami, then asking who the jockey is.
Ells
1
#864
March 27th, 2009 14:23
Crikey WOA too! but he has alot of weight.
but movers at this stage give you that special feeling. When you champion a horses chances for months and then don’t get on you are gutted, as you imagine it winning! L’Ami and My Will would be my main gutters at the moment. That reminds me last time I had a quick look here someone said ‘run the race now! or I’ll back em all!’ very funny 
I added to my anteposts after GCs withdrawl with outsider, unknown and unseen by me, Brooklyn Brownie, just missed 66s and got 40s but it hasn’t moved, got that feelin of wishing I was on a real inward mover right now. Greedy as my others have come right in, except Cornish
#865
March 27th, 2009 14:45
Wow! Best price 20s on L’ami now at bookies lol. So wish id managed to get more on earlier on. Ah well. Got 85s on Betfair about a month ago so can’t complain I guess.
Ells
1
#866
March 27th, 2009 14:52
must be the tony effect! although he has no magic powers in this race!?
#867
March 27th, 2009 15:28
Absolutely gutted
I can’t believe CB is out. What a sight it would have been to see him jump those fences. Both he and RM were the top two trends picks and now look what has happened. A crying shame.
I hope RM hacks up next Saturday as those two were my biggest wins. It’s slightly taken the fun out of the race now for me
#868
March 27th, 2009 15:42
well for me ….. Rambo and the dark one now have it all to do
wont be too upset tho if KB or PL do the job either.
#869
March 27th, 2009 15:42
Bad luck to all those who had backed CB. I hope you recoup your losses elsewhere in the race.
I’m suprised about the money for L’Ami to be honest. This is the second mini “plunge” of the week with WOA’s price collapsing a few days ago. L’Ami looks a highly dubious stayer to me. It looked like he didn’t get home in 2007 (admittedly with more weight), but his full brother (Kelami) and half brother (Innox) have both shown that 4m4f stretches their stamina too far.
#870
March 27th, 2009 15:53
indeed stayer which brings me back to my , how many horses have previously finished ie got round in one piece the grand national UNPLACED and then come back to win it?
LAMI FOR ME :
too french
too run before unsuccessfully
too placed in a big race at this years cheltenham.
#871
March 27th, 2009 15:54
Im in exactly the same boat Stephen. Far and away my 2 biggest bets. Rambo almost 50% of my overall stake. And CB over 25% of my overall stake. Gutted
That’s one of the worst I can think of in recent history. Happy if someone can prove me wrong. I no CB and PL were withdrawn last year – but they were’nt 14/1 or less shots and not within a week of the race. Terrible news.
I think the move on L’ami is more than just a ‘mini plunge’ as was the one for WOA. I would say L’ami’s is bigger tho. The horse has gone from 50s with some bookmakers into 18s and 20s within the space of a few hours. Unbelievable move. Like I say, I believe its because of McCoy. I am hoping he will stay but agree there are doubts purely cos of his run 2 years ago. However as Ive said before, McCoy said before the race that it was his best ever chance of a winner in the GN and he has been running at almost 4m all year over big fences and up and down banks, wedges etc, they do take some stamina. Need him to run well now tho lol, with CB out
Ells
1
#872
March 27th, 2009 15:58
some forecast and tricast information :
out of the last 9 seasons only 5 horses have been placed not having won over 3 miles including king johns castle who you could argue had won a 3 mile point to point. in six of these races completely ignoring horses who havent won over 3 miles would have shortlisted the forecast / tricast.
as per my earlier post drop french breds who havent run well over national fences unless you really fancy them.
out of the last 9 seasons only 4 horses have placed not having won a minimum class 2 chase. and in the last 7 years only the fly in my ointment, kings john castle, has been the only one. do not include anything that hasnt won at least class 2 in your selections.
only one horse placed has improved its position over the last nine seasons, amberleigh house, a proven aintree specialist. a few have come back to be placed again but not better (hedgehunter, blowing wind, clan royal to name a few). bear this in mind when looking at horses previously placed. of the 6 winners to return 3 have been placed. I cant find any horse that’s get better by the time it has its third run in the race.
all the last nine winners are in a small range of 135-142 on last race OR. I can only find 3 horses rated below 130 placed in 9 years and only 6 rated above 150 based on last chase OR.
I have yet to apply these stats to this years race and will wait until the final decs to do the analysis but thought it might be useful
#873
March 27th, 2009 16:07
on the mccoy thing cant find anyone taking bets on what he’s riding now …. im sure sky bet were but just ruby now??
#874
March 27th, 2009 16:09
Yer that was what made me come out and say it this morning. I looked on oddschecker and L’ami was shortening all over the show, coupled with the fact that there was no longer a ‘What will McCoy ride’ market. I knew he must have chosen L’ami.
Ells
1
#875
March 27th, 2009 16:11
yep your right lough just googled it and the sky bet page is there but just a “this event is no longer available for betting” message.
#876
March 27th, 2009 16:19
I just don’t see it with L’Ami. I don’t have a penny on him and neither to I intend to have. He is basically regressive – almost entirely running in cross-country races these days where the standard is very average (whereas he once gave Kauto Star a race of it). He had a very hard race at Cheltenham, fell at the 2nd in the National last year and was beaten a country mile into tenth the year before (I know he carried 11-8 but would not have mattered if he carried 10st abnd he was in his ‘prime’ then). Quite simply I don’t think he is good enough, in my opinion. Just thought I’d try counterbalance those who may be tempting others into having an interest in him.
#877
March 27th, 2009 16:27
agree whitearab personally not for me … and ….. at the risk of being dragged into the carpark and beaten with sticks heres one for discussion …
Tony Mccoy 14th attempt at the Grand National never a winner yet over 3000 winners ridden and however many times champion jockey he is ….. so for this particular race …. is it a good or bad thing he rides your horse in the big one?
#878
March 27th, 2009 16:32
baggy352 – very informative post.
One question, do you include novice form when you say minimum of class 2 win?
#879
March 27th, 2009 16:33
Yer, I’m in no way trying to tempt people into betting on him. I am unsure of whether hes good enough of not myself. But hes 1 of the top trend horses and Ive been impressed with his season. I challenge your views that he is regressive though. I just think new yard have taken a different approach with himself, and he seems a much better horse to me this season than last season. I also challenge your view that he had a ‘very hard’ race at Cheltenham. Both Garde Champetre and himself had it all to themselves and were only ridden out up the hill. Couldn’t have had an easier race imo, unless GC had fallen. But yes I wouldnt suggest anybody backs him at his current value, well not too much anyways. Now 2nd in my rankings tho now CB’s been taken out. And it does say something if McCoy has chosen him over Butlers Cabin – joint 2nd favourite and unlike Rubys dilemma with My Will – he isnt even highly weighted.
Ells
1
#880
March 27th, 2009 16:36
Its a good thing that hes chosen to ride L’ami. Whether you want him on your horse or not, you want him to want to be (if that makes sense lol). And I don’t think anyone would suggest AP hasn’t won it cos hes not very good in it. He’s merely just not had a horse that has won. As I said L’ami was running well before being hampered twice 2 years ago.
Ells
1
#881
March 27th, 2009 16:40
Is L’ami ground dependent?
#882
March 27th, 2009 17:05
evening to all sorry to those who backed character building but im not sorry to see him go less of a threat,
one question whats a trifecta????
also dreamt about the national the other night (gotta get a life)
the winner was kilbeggan blade, 2nd was rambo 3rd was hot weld, 4th darkness??? i wonder
#883
March 27th, 2009 17:07
In your dream P Smith the ground must have been soft
#884
March 27th, 2009 17:32
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/lami-grand-national-odds-tumble-to-20-1-from-50-1/173847/
on the lami story …
#885
March 27th, 2009 17:34
Point noted Lough Derg. I appreciate your challenge. My point is that L’Ami was fourth in a Gold Cup, beaten ten lengths. In February 2007, he was beaten a neck by Kauto Star over 3 miles in soft ground at Sandown. In November 2007, he was third in a race at Cheltenham’s November meeting, giving 21lbs to the winner, and a stone to the second (Cornish Sett!). Since that time his official rating has gradually reduced and I doubt because McManus is saving him for a handicap coup! To my mind, he was ridden vigorously at Cheltenham (well backed 7/4 fav and you know whose money that was!) and in a race over the cross country course, carrying 11st 8lbs over 3m 7f – he had to have a hard race. I know that he was not badly knocked about but not my idea of preparation for the National. It is on those grounds that I just can’t have L’Ami as the winner of the 2009 National.
#886
March 27th, 2009 17:42
couple of other things to note on lami
4 wins from 46 starts … not an awe inspiring strike rate and with mccoy onboard 0 from 9 starts.
#887
March 27th, 2009 17:52
dragonman says:
March 27, 2009 at 5:42 PM
couple of other things to note on lami
4 wins from 46 starts … not an awe inspiring strike rate and with mccoy onboard 0 from 9 starts.
To be fair his earlier career he was taking on Kauto Star and the other best chasers around and he didn’t disgrace himself in that company. Certainly hasn’t been picking off substandard grade 3 stuff at places like Taunton like KB.
#888
March 27th, 2009 18:00
I’m still coming to terms with Character Building being taken out
It really has taken the shine off the race this year for me. I was tracking him all season. Put a bet on him back in November and watched him progress to be 4th fav for the race. Then with a week to go he is denied the chance to run. In my opinion he would have been in the top 4 with a clear round and it would have been great to see him jump those fences.
Rambling needs to do the business to hold the trends up now. I’m still somewhat flat though about it all
#889
March 27th, 2009 18:03
@Stephen:
Ne’r mind re CB, come on shake a tail feather and get happy for your bets on Rambo
Majority bookies got Rambo now @10s across board – you must be well in there – even covering your CB bets in the event you layed off (which of course you won’t).
Imagine you’d come to the market today – no bets on CB cause you’ve found out he’s a NR, but you heap on Rambo – this would prob cost you now a lot more than your two early investments on Rambo and CB.
I lost out a considerable amount on CB too but Rambo’s still in there
I would re-invest on HT and PL if I were you
Future’s so brought you gotta wear shades…lol
#890
March 27th, 2009 18:17
I think the point isn’t all financial. He’s in same boat as me in that we had two stand out horses. If Rambo falls now then something’s gonna get broken, and that worries me. I’ve now got 1 fully confident horse running for me rather than 2. I know minor trends will be upset regardless (2 consec wins or win at Chelt) but they were the 2 I felt most confident in. Feels like I’m down 2 1 major runner now and not 2
Ells
1
#891
March 27th, 2009 18:28
Yeh I suppose Rambo is still there. But like Lough says it was the fact that two stand out horses were in there to watch and see them battle it out over those famous fences. With the two being so closely matched it would have been such a duel. I feel that has now been taken away and the spectacle has been dealt a blow in that respect.
Obviously it’s always exciting to watch. But with just a week to go the excitement was building and now it’s just a bit deflated. Rambo vs Character was the race I wanted to see. It feels like Rambo vs everthing else now!
#892
March 27th, 2009 18:37
More comments coming out about L’ami now. Surprising to see Bolger say he didn’t yet know who would be riding L’ami. I could swear that that’s the reason for todays move. A horse doesn’t more than half in odds on a couple of hourse just down to ‘excitment over who he might ride’ surely?
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/27/RACING_National_Nightlead.html
There’s the article for those interested.
Ells
1
#893
March 27th, 2009 18:41
Dont worry about CB (who cost me a full half bet) it gives Rambo even more chance!!
Hour by hour the Pre-Christamd GN winners profile (posted 17th December)looks better:
The short list was (in my current order):
TOP FOUR
1. Rambling Minster
2. Darkness
..
..
..
3. Southern Vic (no 1/2/3 at 25f or more in prep race)
3. Kilbeggan Blade (not won or placed in Class 1)
TOP 5 to 8
5. Parsons Legacy (but will he run???)
6. Butlers Cabin (no prep form)
6. Himalayan Trail (failed to finish twice in preps)
7 L’Ami (flattered by McCoy money)
8. Black Apalachi (too much weight)
Too big in price or non runers
King Harold
Chelsea Harbour
Garde Champetre
Rambo and the Dark One by far the best bets.
#894
March 27th, 2009 18:55
latest from the RP web site.
CONNECTIONS were quick to quash rumours that Tony McCoy has chosen to ride L’Ami in the Grand National next Saturday after the J P McManus-owned ten-year-old was on Friday slashed to 20-1 for the race.
#895
March 27th, 2009 18:56
p smith says:
March 27, 2009 at 5:05 PM
evening to all sorry to those who backed character building but im not sorry to see him go less of a threat,
one question whats a trifecta????
also dreamt about the national the other night (gotta get a life)
the winner was kilbeggan blade, 2nd was rambo 3rd was hot weld, 4th darkness??? i wonder
Are you sure Darkness was 4th in that dream? its just that had it come in 3rd the tricast would be complete and I would be living the dream for many years to come, just check the result.
What chance of either of the previous 2 winners C.O.D & Silver Birch of a decent performance in this years spectacle, surely they must be in with a shout to place? 4th & 5th of course behind the 3 in the dream!
Just want to say a big thanks to all the regulars on here, the depth of knowledge and dedication is superb, well done. Good luck all next week (1st time in 6 years that we wont be going). For what its worth I have given the following my kiss of death, sorry.
1 Rambo
2 The Blade
3 Darkness
4.State of Play
5 C.O.D
6 Brooklyn Brownie
#896
March 27th, 2009 19:05
Yep, I’ll be adding COD and Silver Birch to my tricast on top of my front 4 probably. Previous winners usually always do really well and often finish. In this situation COD and especially Silver Birch seem to better off than other previous winners coming back.
If McCoy isn’t riding L’ami I’ll be immensely surprised. Someones leeked something for sure. I’ve been tipping him up for last 2 months as top trend matcher but nothing until today. There’s definately something else happened.
And if he does ride L’ami I’ll be annoyed at them not confirming it today and actually having the cheek to quash the rumours.
We shall see, but the fact that Sky Bet closed their Who Will McCoy ride market early this morning severely indicates he has chosen. Very, very strange day lol.
Ells
1
#897
March 27th, 2009 19:05
Top 4 according to Mystic Meg.
1. Rambo
2. Kilbeggan Blade
3. Irish Invader
4. Darkness
Now thats a bet…
#898
March 27th, 2009 19:18
rambo
darkness
kilbeggan blade
parsons legacy
southern vic
#899
March 27th, 2009 19:21
this now on the rp website …
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/aintree-grand-national-mccoy-lami-link-quashed-after-national-support/173847/top/
#900
March 27th, 2009 19:30
I mentioned earlier that my spreadsheet with scores added and deducted for loads of weird and wonderful factors is good at finding the winner, if it appears in the top 6. Following the withdrawal of CB, the top 10 is as follows. This was produced by guessing that the ground will be good to soft. Conna Castle probably won’t run but I’ve left him there anyway
1. Rambling Minster 28
2. Darkness 24
3. Irish Invader 23
4. Brooklyn Brownie 20
5. Conna Castle 16
6. Southern Vic 15
7. Kilbeggan Blade 13
8. Black Apalachi 12
9. Cornish Sett 10
10. Offshore Account 9
Out of others near the top of the market, we have:
12. Comoply or Die 8
12. L’Ami 8
14. Snowy Morning 7
14. War of Attrition 7
20. My Will 5
21. Butler’s Cabin 4
23. Big Fella Thanks 3
28. State of Play 2
37. Hear the Echo -3
Rank outsiders are:
48. Tumbling Dice -10
49. Kelami -13
50. Ice Tea -14
51. Cerium -16
52. Arteea -18
53. Eurotrek -22
#901
March 27th, 2009 19:41
Everybody is ruling out comply or die but he does have the extra weight but i believe he has the class and stamina to make it double.
1.Comply or die
2.Butlers Cabin
3.Rambling minster
4.king johns castle
5kilbeggan blade
#902
March 27th, 2009 19:54
just listened to tom segal interview on rp website
he’s liking
my will
big fella thanks
also talks about KB (NEEDS RAIN)
himalayan trail – trained for the race and in with a chance
IRISH INVADER – if it stays
comply or die – improved run at cheltenham
doesnt fancy -
black apalachi- needs a monsoon
rambling minster – haydock was a one off performance ….shock horror!!!!
#903
March 27th, 2009 20:06
just like to say a big thankyou to all who’ve contributed so much to this site, and long may it continue.
1, Rambo
2, Killbeggan blade
3, Himalayan trail
4, War of Attrition
5, Silver Birch
6, My Wil or Darkness(not sure yet)
#904
March 27th, 2009 20:14
It’d be interesting to see what he fancied last year.
#905
March 27th, 2009 20:23
funnily enough ….. Chelsea Harbour
#906
March 27th, 2009 20:24
Mon Mome drifting very heavily. Any news from trainer?
#907
March 27th, 2009 20:41
Yer I was gonna mention that earlier on today Speedy, but got caught up in the whole L’ami and CB situations. On the basis of dragons summing up I was gonna say, wow another top tipster so far off. But actually listening to it, he’s more pecimistic about BFT, saying he fancied him at the time of weights bt wasnt to impressed with his RP Chase run and with My Will he says he is Ruby dependent and isn’t 100% sure. As for Rambo he says that if he was to reproduce recent form then would have great chance but he just doesn’t see him doing it again. We clearly all do lol. To be honest its not a very informative piece, he says a lot that he doesn’t like and then the horses he does like he places huge disclaimers on them lol.
Ells
1
#908
March 27th, 2009 20:45
I remember from last year he was strongly suggesting that we get on CLOUDY LANE at 12/1 after the weights came out. Hence he was backed in to 6/1 fav… So i would take his comments about MY WILL and BFT with a pinch of salt.
As for his comment on RAMBO… only time will tell…
#909
March 27th, 2009 21:29
Just a note on Pablo’s excellent spred sheet results.
Did you notice that the GN winner on his sheet scored 33 points or more since 1999 (10 years) other than RED MARAUDER on 29 points.
And to add Pablo states “All National winners since 1990 (with the exception of Red Marauder have won with 31 points or more) – many appear in the top two – but as many people are aware with recent performance of Pension funds in the financial markets – historical performance is not necessarily a predictor of future outcomes”
And this is his list for those with 33 and more:
37 Rambling Minster
36 Black Apalachi
34 Southern Vic
..
..
..
31 Kilbeggan Blade
31 State Of Play
31 My Will
31 War Of Attrition
Great work Pablo.
Confirms my supprt for Rambo with SV and KB as possibles (the “Dark One” is on 29). Maybe according to Pablo its not so much the “Dark One” to challange Rambo but the “Black One” (very strange – is there something in this?). Ofcourse it does depend on Pablo giving the correct scores.
#910
March 27th, 2009 21:34
Blue Square will be going 5 places and NRNB from tomorrow.
Still can’t comprehend the madness we saw today with L’Ami. He’s trading at 33s on Betfair now but some of the bookies are going 16s. Crazy price.
#911
March 27th, 2009 21:37
oedipe – it does include Novice chase form in the analysis posted earlier.
#912
March 27th, 2009 21:39
PS I rang my mum today and no rain today, just very windy (will this dry the course out??). In fact she says they have had very litte rain this week. oh btw she lives about 8 miles from the course!
#913
March 27th, 2009 21:46
Baggy,
Wind does indeed dry the course out. Today’s Turftrax report was very similar to the report from yesterday (Good-Soft, Good in places). I think the forecast is for a bit more rain tonight and tomorrow before improving next week. If that forecast is correct the ground next Saturday will probably be Good, or Good with Good-Soft patches.
#914
March 27th, 2009 21:53
From Aintree site:
Course Aintree (Grand National)
Next Race Thursday 2nd April
Report Date Friday 27th March; 4:00 pm
Going Good to Soft (Good in places)
So dries out leading up to Big Day, think we’ll be looking at Good or Good/Soft
#915
March 27th, 2009 21:54
Crikey Stayer, we were like bloody psychic twins there lol…
#916
March 27th, 2009 21:57
I think generally it is a poor preview of the Grand National by Tom Segal (Pricewise) – very little reasoned argument for or against the leading contenders.
In particular, I am surprised by his dismissal of Rambling Minster’s Haydock win on February 14 as a freak (my word not his) success ‘when everything went in the horse’s favour.’
There are contributors to this site who have provided more detailed and persuasive analysis of the 2009 Grand National than that, in my opinion.
Racing journalists often follow the story rather than the facts or the logic, and I think Rambling Minster is regarded as an unfashionable horse, not a horse which many racing hacks would consider a popular winner.
No flashy owner, no establishment trainer, no spotlight-grabbing jockey, no prestige race already under its saddle belt (certainly not a Gold Cup horse), no compelling background story – overall not many ‘buzz’ terms to draw admirers from the press pack. That’s not a criticism, by the way.
The poor horse is so anonymous that the BBC commentator repeatedly got his name wrong at Haydock.
The best the media will squeeze out of the story if he wins is a ‘Rambo romps to National glory’ headline and some attention for baby-faced James Reveley. After all, he looks younger than the horse!
Journalists want big stories from their week-long jolly to Liverpool, something to bang on about to cronies, and from a media perspective Rambo is a fairly dull commodity at the moment.
Eight days from now – when we finally discover who’s right, who’s wrong – and Rambling Minster may (or may not) be crowned this year’s King of Aintree, the press will inevitably and quite rightly be all over him and his jockey in a matter of strides. (I’d tidy up your Facebook now, young James).
Meanwhile, he’s just boring old Rambo, which is how followers like me want it….if it means he’s out of the heat and his price remains artificially high. Bore your way to victory, old boy!!!
#917
March 27th, 2009 21:57
Speedyseagull says:
March 27, 2009 at 7:30 PM
I mentioned earlier that my spreadsheet with scores added and deducted for loads of weird and wonderful factors is good at finding the winner, if it appears in the top 6. Following the withdrawal of CB, the top 10 is as follows. This was produced by guessing that the ground will be good to soft. Conna Castle probably won’t run but I’ve left him there anyway
reply
Interesting work speedyseagull,could i please ask is there a minimum score that the winner attains within your top six,also was Brooklyn Brownie always in the top six as he wasn’t in this morning or is he in because Character Building is out
#918
March 27th, 2009 21:58
should we include horses carrying over 11st for forecasts and tricasts? i think so only once in the last 9 years has a horse carrying over 11st not finished in the 1st 6. 9 horses in this time have been placed in the 1st four which is 25%, enough to leave them in. However the 9 are split as follows :
2 were placed carrying 11st 1lb and a 3rd finished 4th with 11st 3lbs.
3 horses carrying over 11st 3lbs were previous grand national winners
3 anomalies are kingsmark, whats up boys and royal auclair. good news for my will fans is that 2 of these previously finished 4ht and 5th in the gold cup before the national. kingsmark is the fly in the ointment but that is now 1 out of 36 win and place positions if you use the following strategy :
nothing over 11st 3lb unless a previous winner or decent gold cup run (ie my will)
#919
March 27th, 2009 21:58
Showlad I’m checking the Turftrax link very regularly at the moment!! I kind of wish the race was tomorrow, as that should be pretty fair ground for all the ones that i’ve backed! Wouldn’t really want it much softer than that but wouldn’t want it too quick either.
#920
March 27th, 2009 22:01
To Stephen and any other CB fans – the rest may scroll on.
With just a week to go, I can’t adam and eve it. This really does take the shine of the race for me. Thank god I only had the neighbours house on him. But for me this race is about more than just money. I really wanted to see the big 2, neck and neck, fighting it out. The only 2 horses that needed no bending of the stats. I think it’s time now for some of those tablets that Systemsman kindly advised me to take. Bless him.
#921
March 27th, 2009 22:02
The weather around Liverpool today has been very very windy. I will post a daily update regarding the weather every day until the big race.
RAMBO is the biggest winner for me at the moment.
My shortlist;
1. RAMBO
2. SOUTHERN VIC
3. KILBEGGAN BLADE
4. DARKNESS
5. HIMILAYAN TRAIL
6. PARSONS LEGACY
I have been worried about the name IRISH INVADER as this one seems to appeared in quite a few lists. I have looked through its form and it does appear to be a front runner in the 2m Chases it has contested with great success. It fell in the Kerry Grand National and it on the RP website the comments are ‘The still in touch Irish Invader, who was in the process of running a big race, fell’.
It doesnt meet the trend of ‘Won a Chase over 3m’ but has won a hurdle rae over 3m. Perhaps this is another KJC.
Anyway, no rain yet tonight….
#922
March 27th, 2009 22:04
its taken me best part of the day to catch up here, commitment to the cause ey! well I obviously do it for the love of the race and this blog oh course, certainly don’t stand to win 4 or 20k! but alot for me, come on Rambo!
Its so hard this year, still! have several runners and still worrying about others. For me CB is one less worry, others concerning me in the ‘if not Rambo search’ and its nothin new around here! are
SV based on last run, possibility of Ruby
HT spring horse who has run on bottomless all winter and has positive vibes.
Interesting analysis Pablo, as you may not know 33 is the magic number in my book
SV is up there, think its going to be hard to resist one or tother,(SV,HT) or its both or nothing! already got 5!
shall I get value now, bet on one more on the day? ‘savers’ really… nothing has changed but prices will!
#923
March 27th, 2009 22:07
Johnny,
Good post. You’re spot on about Rambo. If he was trained by Nicholls, Pipe, O’Neill etc he would have been made a 10/1 shot right after the Haydock race. Tom Segal’s two picks are Big Fella Thanks (a 7yo novice!!) and My Will, both trained by none other than Mr. P. Nicholls. How many National winners has he sent out?! From how many runners?! The other ones that got a favourable mention were Butler’s Cabin (may be ridden by AP) and Irish Invader trained by a certain well-known Irish trainer. It’s just easy “tipping” for the masses.
#924
March 27th, 2009 22:11
Half Day Harry – the list I posted this morning was from memory when I was at work and it turns out my memory was affected by my stinking hangover and so I got it slightly wrong (apologies to everyone for that, I shouldn’t have posted it without checking)
Alas, I haven’t saved the history of all scores unlike more organised people. However I do recall that Comply or Die scored 24 points last year (was ranked 3rd) and in 2007 Silver Birch was ranked 5th with about 18. Interestingly, McKelvey was ranked 1st that year with 26 and he should really have won
#925
March 27th, 2009 22:18
Pablo RE: your great work on your spreadsheet am i correct in thinking that you award points in line with current odds as well in your spreadsheet.
If so how far does Darkness have to drop in price to hit a score of 31 or more?
#926
March 27th, 2009 22:19
I should also add that the correlation against last couple of years is not exact. The reason for this is that, because of the good work on this site, I’ve added a couple more factors for deductions (pulled up twice in season & no top 3 last 3 races) as I wasn’t aware of these trends until now! I guess this makes Rambling’s score even more impressive!
Please treat it with caution though. In 2006 I had a horse so far above the others in my ratings that I lumped on and did not cover it with anything. It was Innox I think. It subsequently fell at the first and game over. Numbersixvalverde was listed in my top 6 though
#927
March 27th, 2009 22:25
more forecast / tricast info i am afriad. regarding fallers.
1. forget having fallen in the grand national unless they have fallen there twice – and if they have ditch them
2. no horse in the last 9 years has finished in the 1st 4 having fallen more than twice (national excluded as one finished 4th)
3. of the 9 winners only one winner had fallen more than once (national excluded) – bindaree.
4. I probably might have even left out any horse which had fallen twice (national excluded) as before 2007 only two had finished in the money – bindaree and royal auclair. however 4 of the places in the last two nationals 1st 4 where filled by horses who had fallen twice. I’ll leave it to you but if in doubt and needing some persuading i would count out horses who have fallen more than once (national excluded)
#928
March 27th, 2009 22:26
I agree Stayer. Just checked long range, it’s virtually rain free until some rain Fri aft. One thing you will have noticed Stayer – the forecast changes SO much daily – it’s amazing that even today, they can hardly give any reliable forecast picture for a few days ahead.
Still Good/Good to Soft I think would give most of our hopes a decent chance.
#929
March 27th, 2009 22:30
How do you calculate your winnings for a tricast never done one.
Say if i have three horses at 10s is the accumulate odds = 1000 =10 x 10 x 10
or is it
= 10 x 10/4 x 10/4 = 62.5 assuming a place is 1/4odds
#930
March 27th, 2009 22:36
Great post Johnny re Rambo not playing the ‘fame game’.
So funny ain’t it – in this celeb obsessed world – even a GN horse has got to have an angle/story/trendy reason to be popular.
#931
March 27th, 2009 22:40
Thanks very much Speedyseagull much appreciated,
When taking into account all contributors efforts were winner is said to be within lists they provide(no reasons not to believe anybody)there is only one horse who consistently appears.Is it really that simple or are we missing something,could this be the proverbial gift horse,i actually believed when i started out that at least 3 or 4 horses would still be there after x referencing everybodies stats,while we all have our fancies only Rambling Minster ticks the lot,Black Apalachi seems to be next closest being just outside speedyseagulls top six and seeming to need heavy ground,while realising there are no certanties does anyone think this is one of those years when a horse just screams good thing or should we always be cautious,any replies greatly appreciated.
#932
March 27th, 2009 22:42
just spotted this on another website there top 3
KILBEGGAN BLADE
WEIGHT (10-04) | AGE (10) | NATIONALITY (GB)TRAINER (T R George) | JOCKEY (Graham Lee)LATEST FORM (0P-1112) | NUMBER ()
Kilbeggan Blade is sitting pretty on 10-04 which is just about the perfect weight for horse in the Grand National. He is also mature enough at 10 years old and now that Tom George has secured the services of Grand National-winning jockey Graham Lee to ride him, he’s looking like a fantastic e/w bet at 20/1 with Paddy Power.
Upside: His current form is encouraging with three 1st places and a second from his last four. It should also be noted that in each of these races he carried over 10-09, which is 5lbs more than his current Grand National weight.
Downside:He appears to be more comfortable when running around 3m races, as this is where most of his wins come from so Lee will have to get him to dig deep if he hopes to get him around the course in a good finishing position.
At 20/1 an each way bet of £5 is probably worth it to find out!
WAR OF ATTRITION
WEIGHT (11-06) | AGE (10) | NATIONALITY (IRE)TRAINER (M F Morris) | JOCKEY ()LATEST FORM (23/1132) | NUMBER ()
War of Attrition has been reduced by the bookies twice now – from 33/1 to 25/1 to 18/1 and now at 16/1 so obviously somebody knows something we don’t know!
Upside: Good age, great trainer and consistently in the top 3 in all the races that he runs – in fact, the last time he finished outside of the top three was back in 2005!
Downside: Heavily weighted for the race at 11-06 which is slightly above optimal, however, he has only ever carried less than 11 stone once, six years ago, so he is used to this weight.
I will definitely be putting an e/w bet on this horse!
RAMBLING MINSTER
WEIGHT (10-06) | AGE (11) | NATIONALITY (GB)TRAINER (K G Reveley) | JOCKEY ()LATEST FORM (-56511) | NUMBER ()
Rambling Minster has been racing up the bookies polls over the last few days and is now as short as 11/1 with Paddy Power from a previous 14/1 but does he really have a shot at the Grand National?
Upside: Good weight at 10-06 and two back to back wins under his belt. He has previously run and won a four miler so he definitely has the stamina. Also, though he’s down as being 11 years old, he doesn’t turn 11 until May, which, if we’re being technical, actually makes him 10 on the day of the race!
Downside: He appears more comfortable running the 3-milers and though he has had recent back-to-back wins, his form shortly before that is pretty miserable so you just have to hope that he continues with his winning form!
so not just us that think rmbos in there
#933
March 27th, 2009 22:46
How about offshore account the GN has history things happen so charlie swann is having his first ever GN horse quote THE TELEGRAPH
Charlie Swan has eyes on opening Grand National account
Charlie Swan, the 10-times Irish Champion jump jockey, is set to break new ground as a trainer when he sends out his first John Smith’s Grand National runner next week. SO HOW ABOUT THAT FOR HISTORY????
#934
March 27th, 2009 22:57
Lots of talk about exactas and trifectas. I’m planning on using 5 horses, so that’s 20 bets on the exacta and 60 on the trifecta.
At this moment, my 5 short-listed are…
Rambling Minster
State Of Play
My Will
Comply Or Die
Brooklyn Brownie
When was the last time there were no Irish horses in the first three?!
#935
March 27th, 2009 23:03
Johnny, forecast and tricasts are calculated by the bookmakers. I’m not sure what forumla they use. I always bet on the tote, so you are betting against the public.
If the favourite is out of the frame and/or a big priced horse makes the frame, then it follows there will be a bigger payout as fewer people will have those winning combinations. Just becomes a trade-off between what you think will happen and what you would like to happen!
HTH
#936
March 27th, 2009 23:06
Johnny, this link can explain it better http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/ExactasAndCombinations.asp
#937
March 27th, 2009 23:16
oedipe thanks for that found this link which explains the lot, basically doesn’t matter what the odds are
http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/ExactasAndCombinations.asp
#938
March 27th, 2009 23:16
sorry oedipe cheers for that lol
#939
March 27th, 2009 23:19
I’ve had a word that WAR OF ATTRITION is a VERY good bet for this years National, and the word is that the ‘right people’ in the know have quietly been getting their money on in the last few days, it is now 14/1 fom 25/1 today. Also, this guy that comes into my local bookies mentioned it to me as well and he is very rarely wrong, he’s a BIG gambler and has lumped on it.
Just thought I’d share this info with you all.
#940
March 27th, 2009 23:50
Shame that Barry Geraghty seems to be getting tied to Golden Flight by Nicky Henderson instead of freeing him up to ride Himlayan Trail.
Think HT could be HUGE danger next week. Anyone know his connections – who’s likely to be in running to ride him?
#941
March 27th, 2009 23:53
btw when I say getting tied, I mean Nicky’s seems v keen on him riding Golden Flight and he reports that Barry is too.
Just can’t believe he’d pass over HT for GF..still it is BG’s choice at the end of the day.
#942
March 28th, 2009 00:44
I have just completed my final analysis for the 2009 GN, and like Pablo I’ve got a massive spreadsheet with numerous trends across it. I am completely happy with my final 3 selections, as follows:-
* Rambling Minster (backed at 40/1, 25/1, 20/1 !!!) — can hardly fault him. Would prefer if he was a 9 or 10 y-o and he has unusual recent form for a potential GN winner (ie 2 recent wins) but that’s being pernickity!
* Himalayan Trail (backed at 45/1 several times!) — yes, only had 8 chases (bit worrying) and yes you have to forgive some of his runs this season, but as highlighted previously he has been running on bottomless ground. Trainer says he is a spring horse and is coming on nicely. I add in a few quirky trends late in the day to try and sort out my 1/2/3 order and HT is looking good – he is threatening Rambo for my No 1 spot! .
* Kilbeggan Blade (this one somehow escaped my radar when the weights were announced, but I’m now on at 25/1). — like Rambo, recent form looks almost too good in terms of form figures, but can’t really hold that against him. Has beaten Rambo, and I wish I had backed this one a few wks ago!
Have also backed State of Play previously, but bit high in weights now.
Good luck all, only 1 week to go now…..!
#943
March 28th, 2009 00:58
well Im finally down to Rambo(main bet), Cornish Sett. Brooklyn, parsons in that order. Fingers crossed
#944
March 28th, 2009 01:41
To Crisp 73
Yes, I hear what your saying, if that 30 yr. stat is to be broken then those 2 – SV. & Dark. are in pole position. Remember last yr. most people thought a 9/10 stat was magic. Blimey what next, a french winner, only joking – french lovers.
Other Stat Breakers -
KB. – top 3 in C1 chase. 23/23
SOP. – 2-8 weeks since last run. 36/36
PL. – the same again + PU in last race.
BC. – Like it or not – French + Top 3 finish in last 3 runs. 18/18, + 1st.,2nd.,3rd.or 4th. in any prep run 40/40.
L’Ami – French + the little polveir stat 19/19.
MM. – the same again.
CS. – The little Polveir stat 19/19 + the fact he was 8th. in last prep race – minor thing. 1st. – 7th. 17/18, the other one fell.( MM. 8th. also )
So if Rambling falls or is not good enough, which stat will break ?
#945
March 28th, 2009 02:35
Wasn’t Little Polvier’s year one for the chaos theory results? i.e. VERY HEAVY ground where only those TOTAL stayers win and the result seems to be a freak one?
#946
March 28th, 2009 08:32
what next a french winner? at least they place. I cannot find a horse sired by strong gale that has even finished in the 1st 4. southern vic / darkness???? anyone have any stats to back this up. do many run – i seem to remember there being a few each year in the race. is there any proven strong gale stayers that have won over 4 miles or further.
#947
March 28th, 2009 08:38
been so many posts recently wonderedif it might be a good idea to post our top 3 at the moment so that anyone new joining the site can pick up at where we are right now ?
My 3 at the moment
1. Rambling Minster
2. Cornish Sett
3. Darkness
#948
March 28th, 2009 09:00
obviously there are quite a few horses to analyse re strong gale connection but i have been through the top 60 in terms of money won and as we say you need some class to win the national what i have found will do for now. i found risk of thunder who won between 31-35f and one finished 2nd over 32f. Only 2 i can find (life of a lord 7th and ad hoc BD,UR, F) who won over 30f.
there is actually quite a lot of fallers / URs in previous nationals but every one that did finish has remarsk like faded 4 out, in front to 3 out then faded. stayers sired by strong gale appears to have a profiles of 24/25f wins but failures at 4m+. scottish national kept popping up in results with poor finishes. darkness has been pulled up on both attempts over 30f. southern vin yet to complete past 3 miles.
#949
March 28th, 2009 09:13
just got my aintree betting guide through and the trends man has tipped up rambling minster and southern vic – conveniently forgetting his top stat in previous years to avoid strong gale.
#950
March 28th, 2009 09:13
Well one week to go lads and lasses and u can feel the buzz beginning to increase ….the greatest show on earth is nearly upon us and we can finally find out if our dreams are gonna come true . just to say before we get there, thanks to evbody on blog for the incredible amount of detail and analysis that has been performed – its been a joy to behold and great to see so many other people passionate about the grand national – systems man, crisp , pablo , showlad and about 30 others i could name … the work uve put in and sharing that with other people has been outstanding…! – anyway – one week to go and heres my top 6 – ive now got a surprise no 1 . but to be honest its splitting hairs betwen all 6 as i think any of them could go close….
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Rambling Minster
3. Darkness
4. Southern Vic
5. Kilbeggan Blade
6. State of Play
I may have a a couple of quid on Irish Invader for a bit of fun as well this week. Ive just got a niggling feeling that this guy could run a decent race and give you a run for your money , but he may run out of petrol between the last two fences .
As Dan says he looks like a King Johns Castle, Slim Pickings type of horse to me and i think hes one of the best outsiders and for ew backers he could be the one to run into a place …
#951
March 28th, 2009 09:14
1.Rambling minster
2.Kilbeggan blade
3.Himalayan Trail
4.Southern vic
5.Darkness
6.Parsons legacy
#952
March 28th, 2009 09:19
My top 3 winners as it stands.
1. Rambling Minster
2. Offshore Account
3. Brooklyn Brownie
#953
March 28th, 2009 09:28
You guys arnt the only ones tipping Rambling Minster.
grandnationalodds web page.
2009 Grand National Tips – The Best Tip
Rambling Minster
#954
March 28th, 2009 09:36
Silver Birch what makes you put Himalayan Trail no1,i’ve fancied this horse for ages,however things haven’t seemed to go to plan so far this season and i am now not as confident as i was,whereas Rambling Minster seems to obvious a winner.
#955
March 28th, 2009 09:49
with regards to the strong gale rule this might not be so relevant as they were not directly sired by strong gale, just through bloodline / dam. i am going to leave strong gale horses in this year. SV’s father was old vic who sired COD so I suppose that is good enough to not discount. not sure about darkness though – poor runs over 3m, jumping was terrible in RSA, only won in small fields.
#956
March 28th, 2009 09:50
Harry – i think ur right that his last couple of runs have not been inspiring . however im convinced the key to this horse is decent ground….. hes had to drag himself through bogs and quaqmires in every single race hes ran this winter , soft and heavy going in every single race . hell finaly get his preferred ground next sat assuming the rains stay away . He is now a stone better off with black apalachi on their becher running when the ground was like a swamp , he jumped the fences perfectly and now finds himself in the race with 10- 6 on his back and unlike some other fancied horses where there is still conjecture as to whether they will see out the trip , this guys already won over 4m 2f … the trainer knows what is required to win this having landed a gamble prev with Montys pass. im not going to be able to defend him from some elements from a trends angle , but guranteed stayer over 4m , class 1 winner and 10 – 6 on his back …im afraid he cant be ignored . barry geraghty would have been the icing on the cake but andrew mcnamara would be fine by me
#957
March 28th, 2009 10:16
Help, are the tricast & trifecta payouts for last years G.N, I have some question & would be grateful if as i’m fairly sure the experts on here will be able to answer.
TRICAST £2268.11Pool: £79,485.23, 12.10 w/u TRIFECTA £4664.00 Pool: £79,485.23, 12.10 w/u
Ok, so how come the trifecta pays more than the tricast?
Is the figure’s £2268.11 & £4664 the amount you would win back with a £1 stake.
What does the 12.10 w/u mean.
I have 5 selections lined up for the 123, now whats the better bet a combiation tricast,or trifecta?
Thanks in advance
#958
March 28th, 2009 10:16
THE GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPS LEAGUE – FINAL STAGE IS NOW OPEN!!
OK Lads n Lasses!! The opening of the final stage of our wonderful rolling table was going to be on Tuesday, but I figure 2 things:
1 – We can all pretty much figure out who the NON-RUNEERS and DOUBTFUL RUNNERS are anyway and horses can drop out right up until the Big Day, so no point in delaying.
2 – The rolling table has the great gift of accumulating everyone’s top tips as it goes along, giving an UP TO THE MINUTE take on our forecasts – and I figure NOW MORE THAN EVER we need to see our collective thought gathered and to hand RIGHT NOW, rather than going back over reams and rems of tips and evaluations.
SO HERE WE GO!
Right, first let’s bring ourselves up to date by comparing the results of Stage 2 with the opening set of Top 6 Tips on Stage 1.
Character Building and Garde Champetre have both been removed from both previous tables when making up the Chart below.
Positions are from the latest set of votes in Stage 2 with the previous position held in Stage 1 shown in brackets.
Admin – I know you are planning a prize for your own tips comp but we have been at this Top 6 Tips League for weeks – now in Stage 3 – so it would be wonderful even if you could allocate a token gift to the winner – just for the fun.
Winner: Winner is the Top 6 Tipster who gathers most points.
The points will be allocated as follows:
Tipping 1st place – 100 points
Tipping 2nd place – 50 points
Tipping 3rd place – 40 points
Tipping 4th place – 30 points
Tipping 5th place – 20 points
Tipping 6th place – 10 points
May the BEST TIPSTER WIN!!!!
OKAY the current table…
1 (1) Rambling Minster 174
2 (2) State Of Play 77
3 (4) Darkness 48
4 (8) Kilbeggan Blade 43
5 (3) Butler’s Cabin 39
6 (7) Southern Vic 36
7 (-) Brooklyn Brownie 22
8 (6) Cornish Sett 20
9 (9) Parsons Legacy 19
10 (11) Himalayan Trail 12
11 (-) Offshore Account 10
12 (10) L’Ami 9
13 (5) Black Apalachi 8
14 (-) Irish Invader 8
15 (12) Comply Or Die 7
16 (19) Hot Weld 6
17 (16) My Will 8
18 (17) Chelsae harbour 2
19 (-) Big Fella Thanks -1
Table summary: RAMBLING MINISTER holds strong atop the merry tree of tips. Biggest surge in the Top 10 is from KILBEGGAN BLADE who climbs from 4 to 8. Other moves of note: tipsters lose some faith on BLACK APALACHI – as the Big Guns withdrew and weights go up we seem to feel it’s an ask too far. Surprisingly MY WILL gains NO ground – despite now being the bookies hot favourite and his staying 5th in the Gold Cup. The main ‘New Kids on the Block’ are OFFSHORE ACCOUNT coming in at a new entry of number 11 and IRISH INVADER who makes a debut at number 14.
RIGHT TIPSTERS LET’S HAVE YOUR FINAL TOP 6 TIPS!!!!!
Remember all to incorporate your Top 6 into the Rolling Table.
New Table starts now and is set back to ZERO (eg all horses have NO points).
#959
March 28th, 2009 10:18
Thanks Silver Birch i too thought that Becher Chase run was most eye catching,hoping for a good run on saturday as it is the most rewarding feeling when a plan comes to fruition.
#960
March 28th, 2009 10:20
Highest entry of course to new chart is BROOKLYN BROWNIE.
Forgot to mention him in summary – he rockets in at NUMBER 7!!
#961
March 28th, 2009 10:25
Weather update: virtually NO rain now forecast between now and the Big Day.
Great link here:
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp
It’s lookin like GOOD on the day me reckkons..
#962
March 28th, 2009 11:01
hi showlad here are my top 6 for it is worth.
1 rambling minster
2 state of play
3 killbeggan blade
4 himalayan trail
5 irish invader
6 cornish sett
thats it all backed and waiting.
#963
March 28th, 2009 11:03
sorry 1-6 means reverse for points, 6 rambo etc lol
#964
March 28th, 2009 11:16
Is anyone worried how Rambo will take to the national fences?? His trainer has opted not to build national fences at home incase he gets ‘spooked’ by them?? He obviously fits the trends in pretty much all aspects. I suppose we’ll know after the first fence…?!! My biggest bet ison him. Will have cash on Kil, Sett and Dark.
#965
March 28th, 2009 11:16
OK Lads, MINTY opens the Final Table:
Rambling Minster 6 Points
State Of Play 5 Points
Kilbeggan Blade 4 Points
Himalayan Trail 3 Points
Irish Invader 2 Points
Cornish Sett 1 Points
#966
March 28th, 2009 11:20
Himalayan Trail 6
Rambo 5
Darkness 4
S Vic 3
K Blde 2
Sop 1
Rambling Minster 11 Points
Himalayan Trail 9 Points
State Of Play 6 Points
Kilbeggan Blade 6 Points
Darkness 4 points
Souther Vic 3 pts
Irish Invader 2 Points
Cornish Sett 1 Points
#967
March 28th, 2009 11:31
Rambo 6
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Himalayan Trail 4
Silver Birch 3
Parson’s Legacy 2
Comply or Die 1
Running total:
Rambling Minster 17
Himalayan Trail 13
Kilbeggan Blade 11
State of Play 6
Darkness 4
Southern Vic 3
Silver Birch 3
Irish Invader 2
Parson’s Legacy 2
Cornish Sett 1
Comply or Die 1
#968
March 28th, 2009 11:38
Hey
My only problem with a tipping competition based on these rankings is I’m picking the 6 I think are most likely to win. If I was predicting the top 6 places I would have COD and Silver Birch in there. No problem though…
Top 6:
)
1. Rambo – 6
2. Character Building
2. L’ami – 5 (cannot believe he’s now my second
3. Parsons Legacy – 4
4. Cornish Sett – 3
5. Brooklyn Brownie – 2
6. Darkness – 1
New Totals:
Rambling Minster 23
Himalayan Trail 13
Kilbeggan Blade 11
State of Play 6
Parson’s Legacy 6
L’ami – 5
Darkness 5
Cornish Sett 4
Southern Vic 3
Silver Birch 3
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Irish Invader 2
Comply or Die 1
Ells
1
#969
March 28th, 2009 11:42
TOP SIX FOR ME IS
RAMBLING MINSTER.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL.
KILBEGGAN BLADE.
DARKNESS.
STATE OF PLAY.
SOUTHERN VIC.
GOOD LUCK ALL.BIN GOOD BANTER THROUGH WINTER.
HOPE BE TOASTIN WITH CHAMPERS NOT BEER.
ENJOY.
#970
March 28th, 2009 11:47
lol..not getting you Lough..you have to tip who you think will finish 1st down to 6th on the Big Day..
Not your favourite 6 horses, as in how highly you regards a horse, but who you think will actually finish the 6 first past the post next Sat and in what order.
There can only be one prediction of First down to Sixth for everyone at the end of the day, so I’m not at all getting you…
This league is for nailing your Top 6.
#971
March 28th, 2009 11:49
Updated Table for you Green St…
Rambling Minster 29
Himalayan Trail 18
Kilbeggan Blade 15
State of Play 8
Darkness 8
Parson’s Legacy 6
L’ami – 5
Cornish Sett 4
Southern Vic 4
Silver Birch 3
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Irish Invader 2
Comply or Die 1
#972
March 28th, 2009 12:00
1. Rambling Minster 6pts
2. Darkness 5pts
3. Irish Invader 4pts
4. Brooklyn Brownie 3pts
5. Southern Vic 2pts
6. Kilbeggan Blade 1pt
Running Totals:
Rambling Minster 35
Himalayan Trail 18
Kilbeggan Blade 16
Darkness 13
State of Play 8
Irish Invader 6
Parson’s Legacy 6
Southern Vic 6
Brooklyn Brownie 5
L’ami 5
Cornish Sett 4
Silver Birch 3
Comply or Die 1
#973
March 28th, 2009 12:03
6 Rambo
5 State of Play
4 Kilbeggan Blade
3 Comply or Die
2 Himalayan Trail
1 My Will
Table:
Rambling Minster 35
Himalayan Trail 20
Kilbeggan Blade 19
State of Play 13
Darkness 8
Parson’s Legacy 6
L’ami – 5
Comply or Die 4
Cornish Sett 4
Southern Vic 4
Silver Birch 3
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Irish Invader 2
My Will 1
#974
March 28th, 2009 12:07
rambling minster 6
parsons legacy 5
himalayan trail 4
kilbeggan blade 3
brooklyn brownie 2
fleet street 1
Table :
Rambling Minster 41
Himalayan Trail 24
Kilbeggan Blade 22
State of Play 13
Parson’s Legacy 11
Darkness 8
L’ami – 5
Comply or Die 4
Cornish Sett 4
Southern Vic 4
Silver Birch 3
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Irish Invader 2
My Will 1
Fleet Street 1
#975
March 28th, 2009 12:09
CHEERS MATE.GOODLUCK
#976
March 28th, 2009 12:12
Oh, well in that case I’ve been getting it wrong throughout. As I guess some others might have. I always assumed we were listing our best 6 horses in the race. There’s no way I think Silver Birch will win, but I think he has a decent chance of snatching a place. I thought the table was for us to produce the most likely winners. Ah well no problem – I’ll deduct my totals from the list for now.
Regressed Total:
Rambling Minster 29
Himalayan Trail 20
Kilbeggan Blade 19
State of Play 13
Darkness 7
Parson’s Legacy 2
Comply or Die 4
Southern Vic 4
Silver Birch 3
Irish Invader 2
Cornish Sett 1
My Will 1
Ells
1
#977
March 28th, 2009 12:12
No rain yet today but quite overcast.
1. RAMBLING MINSTER 6 Points
2. SOUTHERN VIC 5 Points
3. KILBEGGAN BLADE 4 Points
4. DARKNESS 3 Points
5. HIMILAYAN TRAIL 2 Points
6. PARSONS LEGACY 1 Point
UPDATED TABLE
Rambling Minster 47
Himalayan Trail 26
Kilbeggan Blade 26
State of Play 13
Parson’s Legacy 12
Darkness 11
Southern Vic 9
L’ami – 5
Comply or Die 4
Cornish Sett 4
Silver Birch 3
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Irish Invader 2
My Will 1
Fleet Street 1
#978
March 28th, 2009 12:15
This table needs sorting! Notellpa and Baggy’s scores weren’t added to mine as probably posted at same time, Lough Derg has since taken back his scores and Dan’s added his. WIll leave it to you Showlad!!
Don’t fancy Himalayan Trail but may be the one I have a token e/w bet on on the day
#979
March 28th, 2009 12:16
irish invader should read 6pts after incld.note’s
#980
March 28th, 2009 12:22
RIGHT – NO-ONE POST TOP 6 FOR NOW. I’LL SORT IT OUT, INCLUDING DEDUCTING LOUGH DERG’S
#981
March 28th, 2009 12:29
Up to date list after all the supplemented runners and rule 4 deductions is:
Rambling Minster 47
Kilbeggan Blade 27
Himalayan Trail 26
Darkness 15
State of Play 13
Southern Vic 11
Parsons Legacy 8
Irish Invader 6
Brooklyn Brownie 5
Comply or Die 4
Silver Birch 3
Cornish Sett 1
My Will 1
Fleet Street 1
#982
March 28th, 2009 12:31
6/ Kilbeggan Blade
5/ Southern Vic
4/ Himalayan Trail
3/ Hear The Echo
2/ Rambling Minster
1/ Darkness
hope this doesnt mess things up
#983
March 28th, 2009 12:41
anyone noticed lack of support for bc.
ooohhh i ate you butler ooohhh get that bus out.
#984
March 28th, 2009 12:41
I’m thinking that Mon Mome must be another doubtful runner. I know that he isn’t really fancied but 190 on Betfair is an ridiculously high price for a horse that was favourite for Welsh National this year
#985
March 28th, 2009 12:43
Some info, to the best of my knowledge, on last 30 GN winners, furthest distance won at and furthest distance 1st,2nd,3rd(if longer)- plus some info on those who hadn’t won or placed at 28f.
Lucius – won at 24f / placed at 27f, furthest he ran
Rubstic – won at 29f / placed at 33f
Ben Nevis – won at 33f
Aldaniti – won at 24f/ placed at 33f
Grittar – won at 26f, think this was furthest he ran
Corbiere – won at 30f
Hallo Dandy – won at 28f
Last Suspect – won at 29f
West Tip – won at 29f
Maori Venture – won at 27f /think he only ran further once, 29f/P
Rhyme N Reason – won at 29f / placed at 30f
Little Polveir – won at 33f
Mr Frisk – won at 29f
Seagram – won at 32f
Party Politics – won at 26f / placed at 30f
Miinnehoma – won at 26f / placed at 30f
Royal Athlete – won at 28f
Rough Quest – won at 26f/ placed at 27f, only ran further once, 28f/ fell
Lord Gyllene – won at 34f
Earth Summit – won at 33f
Bobbyjo – won at 29f
Papillon – won at 24f / placed at 29f
Red Marauder – won at 24f /ran further three times, 27f,29f,36f/5th,O,fell
Bindaree – won at 25f/ placed at 30f
Montys Pass – won at 24f, furthest he ran
Amberleigh House – won at 27f / placed at 36f
Hedgehunter – won at 28f / placed at 30f
Numbersixvalverde – won at 29f
Silver Birch – won at 29f / placed at 31f
Comply Or Die – won at 33f
#986
March 28th, 2009 12:46
Minty- and poor ole Reg Varney died at Christmas didn’t he. Well, and there is a STAN on the racecard!!! Stan,Stan, leave poor Olive alone …
#987
March 28th, 2009 12:48
Speedyseagull wings his way in to save the League Table!
Thanks Speedy
Lough. Table is clearly ‘Top 6 Tips’ not ‘Top 6 Quality horses’ lol. Look forward to seeing yours when your tips when you do post it up
L’ami surge seems to be going back in a bit again. Don’t think his chances were much increased by AP anyway. AP’s an amazing jockey, but he wants this one SO SO bad. I’m sure any other quality jock, following trainers instructions will do just as well.
What d’you reckon Lough?
#988
March 28th, 2009 12:48
Noticing how high up himalayan trail is on the new scorechart.
One of the big stats is ran in 10 or more chases.
HT has only run in 8
this is a vital stat for me and rules out himalayan trail for me.
#989
March 28th, 2009 12:52
Crisp lol…”Arfa, Arfa!”
btw I wonder how long Monday’s confirmation will take to surface from the tortoise pace taken in notifying from Aintree?
Monday next week…lol
#990
March 28th, 2009 12:53
It was so long ago Can anyone actually remember by just using the main stats which horses were left in the running ?
#991
March 28th, 2009 12:55
HT is WAY UP in my final Top 6…to be posted up soon…
Unless Rambo romps home me-thinks this year could see a cpol trends broken. But (to me anyway) not HUGELY important stats
eg HT ticks big trends for me: won class 1, won over 4m, 5th over GN fences in terrible ground, FEATHER weight, pattern of poor winter runs and then SPRINGing into form (excuse the pun)…
#992
March 28th, 2009 12:55
Good read in the Yorkshire Post yesterday about our Rambo…
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/highlights/Family-dares-to-dream-of.5115994.jp
#993
March 28th, 2009 13:14
Showlad, I’m also thinking a lot more of Himalayan Trail. The only stat that really, really worries me is that he hasn’t got the top 4 in a chase this season, I dont know how long this trend is but it’s long, long, long- even Foinavon managed a 4th! – only 8 chases but he is a ten year old after all and his two non finishes is a strong trend but at the end of the day it has been done twice in the past 20 years, Rhyme N Reason,Rough Quest, so not 100%. All permutations, calculations.
I think a negative is Barry Geraghty- he could get Dobbin from Rentaghost in to the top 6 at aintree- choosing the frenchie at Hendersons but perhaps he didn’t have a lot of choice, really, in any walk of life you don’t want to upset your guvnor, even if it’s Blakey!
#994
March 28th, 2009 13:15
Do you think that with only eight chases under his belt himalayan trail is ready for what he’s attempting.
For me its like the novice/7 year old stat. These horses are not ready or mature enough to handle the extremes of aintree.
I would not be surprised if he runs well but for me i have got to stick to my main stats.
#995
March 28th, 2009 13:15
I have just been looking up Kilbeggan Blade(again) as this is a horse i am still very unsure about, i don’t have a farthing on and just cannot decide if i should…..anyway…
Back in December last year (6th) when he won(and beat Rambo amongst others) the RP report that this is “his time of year”, when i looked in more detail in his races from Feb to April the form reads as such.
2005 10-5
2006 no runs in these months
2007 pu-4-4
2008 2-11-pu
2009 2(turned over at odds of 2-5)
So would it be correct to say that maybe he is not a spring/early summer horse, or would it be right to say that he runs well at the start of his season. His start of season form reads….
2006/07 2-1-3-4-1-1-1
2007/08 3-1-pu-3
2008/09 1-1-1
Well for me this is pretty conclusive over a 4 year period this horse is a different animal come late Feb early march.
When you look at the 2 different forms examples, early and late season, can he really be up there next saturday?
#996
March 28th, 2009 13:18
that was my only worry about kilbeggan but then i reckon that after his chase win they put him away for the national and ran him in a couple of hurdle races to keep him going. unlike other years he will have been specifically trained for this once race so even though i am unsure i have had a little saver (about 5 mins before your posting)
#997
March 28th, 2009 13:19
I’m shocked HT is so far up the list!! Even taken into account the fact that he has raced on unfavoured ground, his record this season is:
PU
Beaten 98 lengths
Beaten 37 lengths
Beaten 19 lengths
PU
Beaten 27 lengths
If he had shown be something I would have been up for it, but he hasn’t!
#998
March 28th, 2009 13:22
I agree with the Kilbeggan Blade comments but, to be fair, there is not one horse that I am very confident on. This includes Rambo, due to the fact that is record in class 1 races is:
Ran 7
Won 1
2nd 0
3rd 0
Got to choose some of them though!
#999
March 28th, 2009 13:25
Ha ha Crips.
Just think with HT his preps have been on his hated heavy ground and he is a PROVEN sping horse. Mid Nat win, 5th in Bechers over again his hated ground, feather weight, trainer reports ‘turned inside out’ since spring came. If he had to break the Top 3/4 stat then so be it. Everyone hates ‘placed before but not won’ on this site, But Amber did just that.
I think it’s one where you go with your conviction over stat.
For me, at any rate, i CAN’T leave him out
#1000
March 28th, 2009 13:26
speedy seagull is right. in the last 3 comments you have pulled apart why 3 of the 4 horses i have backed cant win. i wonder if all the work since mid-feb is now worth it. parsons legacy anyone?
you can find something about all the horses but as long as they dont hit the major negatives they have a chance. then you take the value as i have done with 3 and then cover your bets with other fancies that come to light nearer the time, as i have just done with kilbeggan
#1001
March 28th, 2009 13:27
Kilbeggan has had 3 class 1 runs and unplaced in them all. Rambo might only have 1 win in 7 runs but he does meet that stat unlike Kilbeggan Blade.
#1002
March 28th, 2009 13:27
Hear Hear Showlad .. I agree
… but good point ,its conviction over stats on this one…
#1003
March 28th, 2009 13:30
The fun and games of the National!
If all horses raced off level weight, who would you pick?
#1004
March 28th, 2009 13:32
possibly cloudly lane
#1005
March 28th, 2009 13:33
actually snowy morning
#1006
March 28th, 2009 13:33
comply or die
#1007
March 28th, 2009 13:45
I agree the the comments regarding HT and KB. They do meet a lot of the stats but aspects of their profile/form gives me serious cause for concern.
HT has not really run a good race for his new stable since transferring from Sue Smith. There have been plenty of excuses regarding the ground, but he has won on soft and heavy so I don’t totally buy it. I also don’t think his Midlands National was a particularly strong renewal. The renewal this year was run 5 seconds faster and on slower going. I don’t think he’s good enough and the handicapper may have him.
KB does seem to be best in the autumn/winter and when the word ‘soft’ appears in the going description. Unless it rains I don’t think he’ll be quick enough.
#1008
March 28th, 2009 14:22
“Good read in the Yorkshire Post yesterday about our Rambo…
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/highlights/Family-dares-to-dream-of.5115994.jp”
JV – interesting to know that the National has been the plan all year – makes his progressive RPR stats all the more interesting this season – 113, 128, 138, 147, 155
Also that he doesn’t act on extremes of going – Scottish National run on Good to Firm
“Speedyseagull says:
March 28, 2009 at 1:22 PM
I agree with the Kilbeggan Blade comments but, to be fair, there is not one horse that I am very confident on. This includes Rambo, due to the fact that is record in class 1 races is:
Ran 7
Won 1
2nd 0
3rd 0
Got to choose some of them though!”
I would discard Class 1 hurdles races and focus on the chases instead – anything he did over hurdles was a bonus as Mary Reveley said “He’s going to be a good chaser”:
Cheltenham: 9th – hampered – “The Agfa Diamond winner merits being rated considerably better than the bare form”
Ayr: pulled up – Good to Firm (see above)
Doncaster: 6th – “this trip on good ground seemed an insufficient test”
Haydock: 1st – the Rolls Royce purred to victory
Sometimes need to look behind the bare numbers I think
#1009
March 28th, 2009 14:25
“Speedyseagull says:
March 28, 2009 at 1:30 PM
The fun and games of the National!
If all horses raced off level weight, who would you pick?”
Snowy Morning on good ground – would win cosily in my opinion, unless WOA really saw out the trip
#1010
March 28th, 2009 15:04
Rambling Minster 6pts
Himalayan Trail 5pts
Kilbeggan Blade 4pts
State of Play 3pts
Parsons Legacy 2pts
Hot Weld 1pt
Revised table:-
Rambling Minster 53
Kilbeggan Blade 31
Himalayan Trail 31
Darkness 15
State of Play 16
Southern Vic 11
Parsons Legacy 10
Irish Invader 6
Brooklyn Brownie 5
Comply or Die 4
Silver Birch 3
Cornish Sett 1
My Will 1
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1011
March 28th, 2009 15:11
Lots of people’s tips on here don’t seem to tie in with the OR trend of 136-144. What do you make of this trend? – is it likely to be broken this yr?
#1012
March 28th, 2009 15:34
I hope the OR trend won’t be broken because I’ve just checked and all of my top 6 are in that bracket!
#1013
March 28th, 2009 15:37
Hi Showlad
With regards to question about L’ami I would say, I’m not quite sure if McCoy is the best jockey with this 1. Although he was running a very nice race under him 2 years ago before being hampered.
That being said it was more the fact that McCoy might have chosen him over 2nd favourite that was the big boost. I still think he will. He was a little negative about BC’s chances after the Kim Muir and has been quick to ensure journalists debating his rides don’t forget L’ami. I’m virtually convinved he’s choosing this 1. I’d rather he was on Darkness tho lol.
I’m glad to see that there are still people opposing Himalayan Trail and to a lesser extent Kilbeggan Blade.
As I’ve said before I cannot be having HT full stop. I do not believe that any horse can be so so bad in the build up and then go on and win the biggest race of their career. I just can’t be having it. Whether he gets the ground, is a spring horse etc I don’t care. He has got to show me something. As with BC in the Irish National I think he might have hit his peak back in the Midlands National and neither have shown me anything to tell me they’re back in form since. If I’m wrong so be it, but I won’t be having a penny on this horse.
With regards to KB his current level of form does worry me. He’s obviously a horse on the up. However his 3 PU’s in all C1′s make me think he’s probably not going to be good enough. Therefore no money on him.
Starting to like Parsons more and more. Loved him last year and with CB dropping out and many unlikely winners (sorry guys) being tipped up, I have to think this 1 has a real chance. Unbelievable value on Betfair.
Its a case of which trend do I think’s more important. A horse with every stat met other than the fact he has only ran 2 prep runs – *he is a horse who likes to run fresh, and its been a difficult season to find runs with the weather.*
or
HT – Only ran in 8 chases and terrible form with no top 3 in winning season – *10 years old and spring horse, ran on unliking ground during bad runs.
or KB – No C1 place and poor form in big races – *ran very well in lesser races*.
I’ll take the top 1 anyday thanks. But its up to u what u choose
That’s the beauty of the National. Ht a Big Big no no for me, KB has a chance but would take severe step up.
Ells
1
#1014
March 28th, 2009 15:43
Also with HT people seem to be forgetting his terrible hurdle race at the end of Feb. Hardly winter and only soft and was 11th out of 17. Also worn cheekpieces 1st time in race before last and then tongue strap for 1st time in last race. Screams out desperation for me. I just don’t think this horse is getting on too well at his new home. Cannot believe this horse is shorter than 50/1 to be honest. He’s the opposite of L’ami – horse that has lost form since joining new stable.
Ells
1
#1015
March 28th, 2009 15:54
Plus with the race as class as it is these days, lets look at the last few winners:
Comply or Die – Won the Eider and 2nd in C2 at Cheltenham
Silver Birch – 2nd in 2 decent cross country races including one at Cheltenham Festival.
NumberSixValVerde – Ran in hurdles virtually all year – so clearly aimed at the National and ran well in a couple of really decent hurdle races
HedgeHunter – Won the BobbyJo chase.
Amberleigh House – 2nd in Bechers by a s.h.
I cannot believe that all these horses were getting their ideal ground or time of the year when doing this but their class still shone through and they managed to knock up good results in winning season. If HT was capable of winning GN I’m pretty sure we would have seen jus a sparkle of something even on unfavourable ground and at unfavourable times of the year.
Ells
1
#1016
March 28th, 2009 16:27
Stats Man says:
March 28, 2009 at 3:11 PM
Lots of people’s tips on here don’t seem to tie in with the OR trend of 136-144. What do you make of this trend? – is it likely to be broken this yr?
Reply.
NO!(but to be on the safe side consider runners up to to OR 146)
I have been looking and looking and looking for something to beat Rambo and I just cant find it other than Darkness being in with a possible good chance. All others fail on so many important trends. KB and HT (failed to finish twice this season a big NO for trends!!) both not placed at Class 1 would be a big upset but they are in my short list as they meet many other trends.
No its RAMBO all the way for me. Bring it on!!
#1017
March 28th, 2009 16:52
It is hard to see beyond Rambo I agree. Now that Character Buidling is out
He is the one stand out horse above all others. It is very, very hard to find a chink in his armour.
Let’s hope he does the business next Saturday and restores my faith in the great race after what has been a deflating week.
#1018
March 28th, 2009 17:00
l s t d could you let me know your opion on him.trail as i know you have touched on the subject but would really like to know in depth what you really think !!!! lol youre like my mrs. a dog with a bone.do you think you might back it then.will have a side bet with you for charity that he will finish higher than your parsons legacy which i got stung on last year,but thats what he was last years chip paper.
#1019
March 28th, 2009 17:12
Hi Minty
Yer I apologise for going on lol. Can’t help myself.
Ells
1
#1020
March 28th, 2009 17:47
“Stats Man says:
March 28, 2009 at 3:11 PM
Lots of people’s tips on here don’t seem to tie in with the OR trend of 136-144. What do you make of this trend? – is it likely to be broken this yr?”
Not sure whether it will be broken this year but I am sure that it will rise slightly in the future (the trend is slighty upwards from a few years ago)
Getting much harder for Irish National winners to win now that Hear The Echo etc have been clobbered with extra weight (although the handicapper has been more lenient to the original 11’0+ brigade in order to bring the horses together – personally I wish he would stop messing about with this great race – the whole Denman thing was a complete farce.
As punters do we really want special treatment for Denman and his like – they’re supposed to be the best horses – let them prove it under handicap conditions!!!
Also those with previous Aintree experience are being hammered – Butler’s Cabin for example. Undisputed course specialist Amberleigh House was raised 6lb for a short head second in the Becher 5 years ago and BC gets 12lb for falling miles from home when going far too quickly to win – a serious misjudgement surely.
Therefore it is skilfully placed horses, injured horses making a comeback from a lower handicap mark or older horses trained by the non-fashionable trainers (or a combination of more than one factor)that the handicapper seems to overlook that will stand a chance in future – the mid-range handicappers that have a touch of class and that have done well recently will be weighted out of the race for one semi-decent run and the superior horses will be allowed to get in lightly…
…until eventually a Gold Cup winner is allowed to run off <11’0 and we can all give up and find something else to do
Might as well run it over 6f at Goodwood on heavy ground!
#1021
March 28th, 2009 18:21
Anyone got any Thouughts on war of Attrition, his price has really come down in the past week. Obviously there are question marks over whether or not hehas the stamina with a lot of weight on his back. He’s come straight back to form since returning and i wouldn’t be surprised to see him out of the top 4. A lot of people say that 2006 Gold cup was relatively week but he beat Hedgehunter and ran very close to a record Gold Cup time. If the ground is good i think he may well be in the frame
#1022
March 28th, 2009 19:20
I think quite a few people got their fingers burned with Parsons Legacy last yr – hope the same doesn’t happen again…..
#1023
March 28th, 2009 20:11
Hello to All.
Rambo 6
Killy Blade5
Himalayan Trail4
War O A 3
Darkness 2
My Will 1
Why are there no positives for ‘Hear The Echo’? We (the majority on here) wont have ‘Rambo’ beaten, but if he doesnt get a clean round or falls etc, I keep getting a niggling in the pit of my stomach saying that ‘Hear the Echo’ was the OBVIOUS alternative…..Sorry if this has already been dealt with but i can find nothing substantial re him, Good posts, Good luck, and may we all be smiling come this time next week….
#1024
March 28th, 2009 20:29
Updated Table for you lukiman…
Revised table:-
Rambling Minster 59
Kilbeggan Blade 36
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 17
State of Play 16
Southern Vic 11
Parsons Legacy 10
Irish Invader 6
Brooklyn Brownie 5
Comply or Die 4
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 3
Cornish Sett 1
My Will 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1025
March 28th, 2009 20:35
Systemsman Himalayan Trail not only placed in Class 1 but won it – the Midlands National over 4 miles!
#1026
March 28th, 2009 20:51
Darkness has been taken out of William Hills betting,they might just be re-pricing it,but maybe not!
#1027
March 28th, 2009 20:57
they will be repricing …. 20-1 with paddy now
#1028
March 28th, 2009 20:59
Totally with much of your viewpoint Lough. Except HT. 3 very poor runs before landing Bangor victory (in spring) and then the huge C1 Midlands Nat win 13 days later. This year an excellent 5th in the Becher in heavy ground and a 4th in Limerick have been his best in prep runs – not ideal, but I couldn’t be as dogmatic as you in your dismissal of him.
TOTALLY agree with you on Parsons – MASSIVE ODDS – and trainer said a defo runner if good or good-soft ground which we will DEFINITELY be getting next Sat. C1 winner 3rd (giving Hot Weld nearly a stone) by less than 2 lengths in Scot Nat. Great win earlier in season “PARSONS LEGACY has often run well when fresh and showed battling qualities to open his account for the season at the first time of asking”. Then a dud last run but comes into GN fresh again.
Will most likely carry 10’12″ on big day – so that’s fine for him used to lugging around 11′+. He along with SOP makes the 2 class acts in with a shout this year. SOP likely to carry 11’02″ – a hefty weight, but trainer said not worried – he won Hennessy with 11’03″.
#1029
March 28th, 2009 21:01
Showlad says:
March 28, 2009 at 8:35 PM
Systemsman Himalayan Trail not only placed in Class 1 but won it – the Midlands National over 4 miles!
running at 9st 9 pounds?
#1030
March 28th, 2009 21:04
lies, lies and damn statistics. there is always a way of interpreting them.
if like me you have decided to back HT you have decided as he fits the winners trends.
last year after a spell in the doldrums he came to life and won 2 races including the class 1, 4m+ midlands national.
he was then bought out of the stable specifically for the national this year so why would i worry about winning anything so long as he gets in and is fit.
ok the 1st run is a bad one but on heavy ground but he then goes to aintree and faces the fences with no problems. the run isnt bad over an inadequate trip on bad ground.
i then run him over hurdles to preserve his rating and his runs are about all he ever achieved over hurdles.
however when the irish handicapper issues weights for the theystes he has me on the same rating as chelsea harbour and 4lb superior to preists leap. the ground is again wrong but i run him anyway and he gets rightly stuffed.
when the weights for the national come out i am rated by the handicapper 13lb inferior to preists leap and 16lbs inferior to chelsea harbour.
i know who got the good deal
i give him one more spin over hurdles to keep him used to the racetrack then put him away for the national
spring arrives and he does what he did last year and gets himself superfit at home and i arrive at aintree with a plotted up, low weighted, specifically trained, super fit horse ready to cause an upset no-one has seen till its too late.
or there’s the other option if you dont fancy him – he’s run so badly this season he cant win the national.
#1031
March 28th, 2009 21:06
Parson’s fans you can get 33/1 non-runner no bet, best price guaranteed, each way for 5 places at Bet 365
Bit of insurance if the trainer pulls him out at the last minute or if the price drifts to 40/1 at the off or if Rambo and 3 others beat him!
#1032
March 28th, 2009 21:09
can you really make excuses for HT on heavy ground as 2 of his 4 wins have bee on said HEAVY ground?
#1033
March 28th, 2009 21:16
my latest picks
6 – rambo
5 – darkness
4 – parsons legacy
3 – southern vic
2 – state of play
1 – butlers cabin
Rambling Minster 65
Kilbeggan Blade 36
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 22
State of Play 18
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 14
Irish Invader 6
Brooklyn Brownie 5
Comply or Die 4
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 3
Cornish Sett 1
My Will 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
#1034
March 28th, 2009 21:16
ha ha baggy . indeed
i guess thats where a lot of us HT Fans are coming from . he reminds me of mckelvey a bit …. mckelvey won the summer NationaL at uttoxeter over 4m 1f in the summer before the national . he then went to the becher and finished a staying on 6th before being Put away for the spring and winning a small hurdle race at bangor a few weeks before the nat – he was 33s-40s 7-14 days before the race before being the subject of a massive plunge the week of the race into 12s on the day .. he was a guaranteed stayer on a low weight who would not be inconvenienced by the better ground.. HT has also won a 4m class 1 chase at uttox , ran 5th in the becher and a recent run over hurdles will have brought him on and he will love the better ground.. i cant see him being out of the 1st 4 if he stays out of trouble
#1035
March 28th, 2009 21:17
the heavy hurdle win was described as a very weak event. the chase win says soft and possible the other 2 didnt run to form. do i think HT will win? NO – RM will win. did i think ew was good value for a midlands national winner trained specifically for the race by a shrewd trainer when he fitted all the trends. YES – and i still do. whether either interpretation will be proved right we will only know on the day – he will probably be brought down 8 out whilst just off the leaders but still attached and we can carry this on all year. i have no insider information but i thought it was a good bet.
#1036
March 28th, 2009 21:25
“Showlad says:
March 28, 2009 at 8:35 PM
Systemsman Himalayan Trail not only placed in Class 1 but won it – the Midlands National over 4 miles!2
Reply:
Sorry my mistake (its so easy to make with so much changing, thanks for pointing it out however – must keep that spred sheet next year) – yes he won a Class one but the Midlands National is in the lower end of the Grand National trials.
More importantly he failed to finish twice this season – a big NO in trends and has only had 8 prep runs (two big negatives).
His best RPR is 145 (in the Midlands National back in March 2008 and nothing near this since).
Best RPR since March 2008 is only 110 and best TS since March 2008 is 52 – not good enougth is it?
I just cant see HT or KB winning.
Just done a quick review due to pre race nerves (they get worse by the day)and I am now very confident with three against the field – all Class one winners with good RPR this season (around RPR 150 or more is what we are looking for idealy).
1. Rambling Minister RPR 155 in last race.
2. Darkness RPR 156 in last race and RPR 151 in third last race (this season).
2. Southern Vic RPR 157 in last race.
All three have raced within 50 days with RPR over 150 and all are Class one winners. All three are in the Pre- Christmas GN winners profile!!
Rambo OR 143
Darknes OR 143
SV OR 143
A stange pattern dont you think – all three in the all important OR 136 to 144 range
It will do for me as the top three – get on – I think the winner is in there (put your mums £1 on each one).
If all goes well one week from now we will all be able to pay for a holiday in the sun for the whole family.
Not sure who to place 4, 5 and 6th in my list now but I’am confident in the real world we probably dont need them!!!
#1037
March 28th, 2009 21:35
My top 6:
Cornish Sett 6
Offshore Account 5
Rambo 4
Black Apalachi 3
Darkness 2
SOP 1
Updated totals (i think):
Rambling Minster 69
Kilbeggan Blade 36
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 24
State of Play 19
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 14
Cornish Sett 7
Irish Invader 6
Brooklyn Brownie 5
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 4
Black Apalachi 3
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 3
My Will 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
Quick question re laying off – had a piece of L’Ami at 25s on betfair in the knowledge that, if McCoy confirms and the price tumbles, i can lay it off. If i put £20 on at 25s and then laid £21 at 16s, i have effectively got a free bet on the horse. Can i access the amount laid off though before the race though or will i need to reinvest to back another horses?
Is this even sensible/logical?
#1038
March 28th, 2009 21:43
If Rambling Minster doesn’t win the National I think we are all going to be pretty annoyed, ha ha!!
After all the months of planning and looking at the form, trends, breeding etc; he has been up there near the top of everybody’s lists for so long now.
After the disappointment of Character Building I would love to see Rambling Minster win this race on Saturday and we can all celebrate, the trends will be correct again and we can come back next year for another assault on the race.
#1039
March 28th, 2009 21:47
Weather forecast update (quite a big change on early indications):
Monday-Friday changed now to persistant high pressure region leading to a warmer more settled still dry spell of weather. Temperarture will depend on how quickly the sun can break through possible overnight fog and cloud. Ground likely to change to Good rather than Good to Soft
Grand National Day – possible change to less settled weather but still a little early to tell.
#1040
March 28th, 2009 21:55
having got over my strong gale rejection mechanism i have just looked at darkness and SV again. here’s why I didn’t include them when I came to my final analysis, though of course I am not saying they dont have chances.
darkness last 5 runs. watch a re-run of the RSA and tell me he would get round aintree, then read the comments on his subsequent national runs (never happy, didnt like the big field), then read the comments on the latest win in a soft veterans race he was gifted (the word hit is mentioned 3 times). is he in form? i wouldnt say so. will he suddenly enjoy a big field? i wouldnt be sure. will he get round? not if he hits 3 fences at aintree unless its on the way down to the start. if you think you can be a bad jumper round aintree then think again. in his defence he is quirky and you might catch him on a good day.
southern vic – HT our of form. SV hasnt won since 2006. all wins on min of soft. last 2 wins over 16f/17f. has it been plotted up by ted walsh? probably. will ruby be on? i think he will be on my will and if he thought it would beat my will he would be on it. nicholls wouldnt stand in his way. will it stay? i seriously have my reservations. so both SV and HT may have been plotted out for this race – would i rather my small ew wager on a proven stayer at double odds?
#1041
March 28th, 2009 21:58
Found some form readers notes on Darkness running lto at Newbury:
Tracked leaders, hit 10th and 12th, went 2nd 15th, hit next and 17th, 2 lengths 2nd when hampered and left in clear lead after 17th, hit 2 out, edged left run-in, comfortably …
How can anyone have confidence in such a sticky jumper over the national fences?
#1042
March 28th, 2009 22:02
it can hit as many as it likes lol as long as it doesnt fall over …. which it hasnt lol
#1043
March 28th, 2009 22:03
a story re bad jumpers. i backed a horse called ushers island when i saw charlie swan was on having his only ride of the day in the whitbread (now betfred) at sandown. he duly won, having put in an appalling round of jumping and losing lengths at each fence. subseqeuntly i read charlie did it as a favour and not out of choice. but he got round a difficult course and won a grade 1 race.
his previous run was in minnehomas national where he fell, not once but three times. after getting rid of tony dobbin he carried on displaying his enthusiasm for racing but he fell again twice more riderless.
will darkness be able to HIT 3 fences like last time in the National? aintree is unforgiveable.
#1044
March 28th, 2009 22:13
dragonman says:
March 28, 2009 at 10:02 PM
it can hit as many as it likes lol as long as it doesnt fall over …. which it hasnt lol
You can hit fences round Newbury and stay upright, try that at Beechers or the chair…
#1045
March 28th, 2009 22:14
i think texas pete could be right – darkness has now been taken out of the betting on oddschecker by three diff bookmakers … sounds ominous
#1046
March 28th, 2009 22:20
FFS this is getting silly now, haven’t a penny on the horse but hope for all Darkness backers sake on here he isn’t another withdrawal.
#1047
March 28th, 2009 22:22
O god no, I can’t afford another hit. Garde Champetre then Character Building and now Darkness! Surely not. Really tempted to lay out my stake on Betfair now. I got 100s n 55s. Do I be greedy or not? Any1 any info?
Re HT vs Mckelvey – Difference being, Mckelveys win was in Jul that season, not March the previous 1. Plus he was only beaten 18l by Eurotrek, not 58l. Plus Mckelvey was staying on behind Eurotrek, HT was weakening. Finally.. like you said, Mckelvey won a hurdles race, showin us he still had it. HT came out end of Feb and ran a shocker. I understand the comparison but in my eyes theres a major difference.
To Cornish Sett – yes if you lay on the same market on the same betting exchange site then your stake will be credited back to your account immediately. You wont get the extra £1, but you will get your £20 stake back.
Hope this helps
Ells
1
#1048
March 28th, 2009 22:36
Any chance somebody could ring one of the bookies who’ve taken him out and find out if he’s a non-runner, like with Garde Champetre.
Thanks
Ells
1
#1049
March 28th, 2009 22:41
Ladbooks have Darkness down to 25/1 (must be reding this blog). I think one or two bookies are just repricing (downwards I would suspect) as he’s still in there with most bookies.
Would like to know though.
#1050
March 28th, 2009 22:42
dont think you have to worry about darkness on the racing post site latest odds william hill only have odds for 9 horses no odds available for the others, anyway thats what i hope got £30 e/w on darkness
#1051
March 28th, 2009 22:43
I would usually agree, but with what happened on Garde Champetre. -Tote took it off and u think hmm, whats happeneing, then gradually they all began to. If 1 bookie takes it off – u think their just repricing. Even if 2 do, you think, well they might have seen some money and need to reprice. But 4 bookies simulataneously, looks ominous to me – Gutted. Price beginnin to drift on Betfair now (may just be a reaction) I’ve layed out most of my stake, didn’t want to, but been forced to lol, can’t afford a 3rd hit.
Ells
1
#1052
March 28th, 2009 22:44
dont know thow you go on william hill site and darkness odds are frozen
#1053
March 28th, 2009 22:45
paddy power are only 20s. i reckon everyone is taking the value based on my amateur dismiss of his chances and bookies are re-pricing.
#1054
March 28th, 2009 22:48
on 888 sport .com it has darkness as betting suspended looks doomed to me
#1055
March 28th, 2009 22:55
Yer Will Hills have everyone listed apart from Darkness. I’ve sent them an email asking why, but no idea how long it will take for a response. I’m begging anybody with a live account with any of these bookies to give em a ring lol. I’m desperate here now. This would be the worst ante-post market ever if 3 live wires were withdrawn less than a month before the race (two within a week)
Ells
1
#1056
March 28th, 2009 22:56
Cornish, the £20 will be available for you to reinvest in whatever market you choose or withdraw. The extra quid will be shown as a potential profit if any other horse wins.
Be aware though that the Ante-Post market closes 10am on 2 April. Also, there’s likely to be minimal action near the end of this market. Hope this helps.
#1057
March 28th, 2009 22:59
Ok guys no panic…..i just spoke to blue sq and they tell me that it is a mistake and it will become available within the next 5 minutes at 33/1
#1058
March 28th, 2009 23:02
888 sport seems to be a sister partnership with blue sq as they follow prices and movements, they have also just re introduced at 33/1….we can all sleep tight now…he he he.
#1059
March 28th, 2009 23:03
blu sq now back up at 33-1
#1060
March 28th, 2009 23:04
33/1 on one of the three best ruuners – now thats value – get a bit while you can (if Blue Sq are corrcet that is).
If Darkness does run as we all hope I cant see his price being better than 20/1 by Friday.
#1061
March 28th, 2009 23:04
can we have a vote on who is the most nervous poster on this site? maybe have a table like the horses? FYI i had a dream last night that 9 fences out the kid reveley decides he is going too well and just goes for it taking off too early and losing the race and all our money. sorry to be doom and gloom but it shows how nervous i am asleep never mind whilst i am awake
#1062
March 28th, 2009 23:04
omg omg omg ………….. im gonna sit in my wardrobe until 3.30pm next saturday i canne take it capn.
#1063
March 28th, 2009 23:05
hooray – theyre back on oddschecker apart from one bookmaker – i can go to bed now nd remove my head from the gas oven and extinguish the match..:-)
#1064
March 28th, 2009 23:05
hopefully my children can eat now????
#1065
March 28th, 2009 23:08
Its looking OK the “Darkone” missing from only three bookies out of 18 on Oddschecker.com – back up on Blue SQ. Must be repricing. God we are all getting so nervous!
#1066
March 28th, 2009 23:08
imagine if the suspended rambo by mistake haha ………… all our pcs would just melt before us.
#1067
March 28th, 2009 23:09
I’ve put the loaded gun back in the box now!!
#1068
March 28th, 2009 23:19
I think I might have a heart attack dragon lol. Just hope I can get my stake back on Darkness. Didn’t plan on laying out whilst hes still at 40s but couldn’t afford another one.
Ells
1
#1069
March 28th, 2009 23:29
RP: Drying week could spell watering at Aintree By Tony Elves4.55PM 28 MAR 2009
THE ground at the Grand National meeting was described as good, good to soft in places on the Mildmay course and good to soft on the National course on Saturday, with the possibility that there may be somewatering of the course.
The showers for Aintree on Friday evening had not arrived in the quantities expected by the clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch, who will monitor the situation before making any decision on whether to water.
He said: “On the Mildmay course and hurdles course it is good, good to soft in places and on the National course it is good to soft, good in places. The forecast was for 4-6mm of rain on Friday but we only had 0.4mm. At the moment there are showers around and the temperatures are expected to rise as the week progresses.
“It depends on whether the showers reach us and if we need to water selectively we will.”
WithBritish summer time beginning on Sunday, the immediate forecast was not in keeping with that designated day but the Met Office confirmed that racegoers should not be in need of the thermals when the Grand National meeting rolls into action on Thursday.
A Met Office spokesman said: “There maybe some showers in Liverpool on Saturday evening and there will be a heavy frost on Saturday night with temperatures getting down to -1C.
“Sunday will be a dry day with plenty of sunshine and light breezes and temperatures rising to 10C and temperatures that evening dropping to 2C.
“On Monday it will, basically, be a dry day and temperatures going up to 11C and it will be much the same on Tuesday with temperatures rising to 13C.
“Wednesday will be dry with light winds and going up to 14C and Thursday there will some sunshine with with temperatures again up to 14C and Friday and Saturday will be much the same. All in allit is going to be a dry week with just the odds few showers.”
Going’s looking almost a cert to be GOOD!
#1070
March 28th, 2009 23:33
anyone know the bookies offering non runner money back?
#1071
March 28th, 2009 23:38
no worries. ignore last question. i will use oddschecker.
#1072
March 29th, 2009 00:05
Systemsman: Southern Vic won a 3M Class 1 race in Dec 05.
Since then following his next 3m win, Chelts speculation was put a damper “His performance here prompted widespread price cuts for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase but trainer Ted Walsh poured cold water on that idea and only very soft ground at Cheltenham would see him take his chance there”.
So one Class 1 win 3 and a half years ago. In ’06 two wins on soft/heavy ground at 2miles. 08 UR at Bechers. This year eventually gets in Top 3 last time out 3 WEEKS before GN and tired with it too. Loves soft would seem to hate good ground. This year GN is nearly a cert now, with weather forecast, to be GOOD.
I genuinley mean it, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE show me where on earth you can think this soft/heavy loving, 3M winner from over 3 years ago, GN type stamina unproven horse, ends up 2nd equal in your FINAL list.
I really respect your views Systems, so I am waiting with an open mind – BECAUSE I JUST CAN’T SEE IT.
Top 20, yes, Top 10 possibly – in the frame – NO WAY.
Being genuine though that I am open to persuasion.
How on earth SV rates higher with you than Parson’s Legacy for example totally beats me.
Are your toughts through rose specs cause you have agood wdge on him, lol?
Now SV will win GN by a country mile!
#1073
March 29th, 2009 00:14
Showlad, I remember a couple of years back in 2007 a friend asked me what I thought of the chances of a certain horse, knowing that horse quite well as I’d backed it the year before I told em that unfortunately it couldn’t win as it was a soft ground specialist and the ground for today’s national was far too fast.
The name of that horse Silver Birch! Morale of the story the national course generally rides a bit softer than the official going, and watering always deadens any ground more than natural rain.
#1074
March 29th, 2009 00:16
I was on McKelvey btw sick as a parrot
#1075
March 29th, 2009 00:23
i already posted about this as i didnt think Silver Birch would win either even thought it was in my shortlist. the time was faster than the other 2 most recent “good” ground nationals and the becher was won by a good/fast ground horse that year. it aint gonna be soft based on current forecasts even if they water. good luck if you back a horse that NEEDS give.
#1076
March 29th, 2009 00:24
i was on mckelvey though it didnt touch my radar till the week as i got my weather forecasts and looked at the other results.
#1077
March 29th, 2009 00:27
Official going can be wide of the truth at big meetings where watering has taken place
But the ground it produces suits most NH horses
Topham should be informative the day before
#1078
March 29th, 2009 00:31
so did silver birch win because
a) the ground was not as the official going – in which case how did mcklevey get so close, why was the time in line with the going and why did other results at aintree go the way of good ground horses.
b) mckelvey lost ground at the start and broke down at the end. ground wasnt a factor in his defeat
c) we were wrong in thinking silver birch was now a plodder because he had left paul nicholl’s when in fact these previous aintree and other national winner who had decent form in recent races and he actually ran a great race whilst getting lucky (in my opinion)i think he was ante post fav the prev year before missing the race.
#1079
March 29th, 2009 00:37
DARKNESS has a lot in his favour and can conceivably stumble his way to a place at a profitable price, but can a truly dodgy jumper win a Grand National? No.
I believed D’ARGENT could win last year IF his jumping held up. His jumping was generally better than I could have expected but mistakes still took too much out of him, and with a mile and a few fences to go and he was heading one way when he clattered out of the race at the 27th.
Darkness is this year’s D’Argent in my opinion. No outright falls to his name, but there’s rarely a race which escapes criticism of his jumping. Too dodgy to win, in my view.
With some uncharacteristic good jumping he could sneak a place so he may still be worth an each way punt at 33/1. Not a winner for me though, especially in a big field which he clearly hates.
#1080
March 29th, 2009 00:47
All I would say with Silver Birch is that he had run on good ground before – and had done rather well. 2nd by half a length in a poor race at Wincanton and more encouragingly a decent 4th at the Cheltenham festival out of 22 runners. The reason I backed it is cos I thought it had one of the best profiles and I didn’t feel was an exclusive ground horse, bit like Rambo – he won on heavy, even tho hes a good ground horse.
With Southern Vic, he does worry me slightly hence why hes my only saver saver. However I think those supporting him are takin a big chance on a few questions:
1. Will he go on the ground
2. Never ran further than 25f – no proof he will stay
3. All out in last race, finished knackered, not so long b4 National.
4. Already fallen over National fences
5. Not won since 06
6. Doesn’t meet the top 5 hennessy trend
Like I’ve said plenty of times before I backed him 2 years ago ante post as I really thought he was a decent National horse. But at this point in time I don’t see it.
Ells
1
#1081
March 29th, 2009 00:58
just realised that liverpool play fulham @ 5.30 on saturday. ramblig minster win followed by top of the table? or 1st fence faller and title challenge over? either way i think i will see you the monday after the race.
#1082
March 29th, 2009 00:59
Ill take Rambo win, Liverpool lose! Im a United man
Ells
1
#1083
March 29th, 2009 01:43
damn. check loughs selections. man u are on a bad run.
#1084
March 29th, 2009 01:52
Hi guys,
Great website being female this is my 1st attempt at betting
Character Building is a non runner have I lost my £15 bet I placed in shop?
My top 5 are:
1. Rambling Minster
2. Darkness
3. Irish Invader
4. Character Building (non runner)
5. Southern Vic
thanks guys
#1085
March 29th, 2009 07:20
Well let me be the first…HAPPY BRITISH SUMMER TIME TO YOU ALL!!
GOOD LUCK TO US ALL THIS WEEK (6 DAYS TO GO!! – LESS THAN A WEEK). MAY THE HORSES AND RIDERS COME BACK SAFE AND MAY THE BEST HORSE WIN!!
Good Morning Systems the SOUTHERN VIC jury is sitting today and, bad news, I am the QC, I await your case for the accused
#1086
March 29th, 2009 07:22
HA HA thought the clock would be right now – it’s still a bloody hour too fast – Admin can you fix please, lol.
#1087
March 29th, 2009 08:41
I’m still worried about Darkness; price not on a couple of others now..hope they’re just re pricing him.
#1088
March 29th, 2009 08:47
I was searching for Grand National Guides on Google to see if any of the press has written summaries of the contenders yet and stumbled across this page… We are famous
http://www.responsesource.com/releases/rel_display.php?relid=46547&hilite=
Incidently, Marcus Armytage in the Telegraph has Rambo as his number one pick.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/5066678/Guide-to-the-Grand-National-Horse-Racing.html
And this guide from The Times has Rambo as a definite shortlisted horse.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/sports_book/2009/03/guide-to-grand.html
#1089
March 29th, 2009 09:03
10am and darkness has gone for another walk with the same bookies as last night??
#1090
March 29th, 2009 09:05
I have posted something but it says it’s waiting for moderation
#1091
March 29th, 2009 09:13
I reckon were not out the woods on this one yet ? something stinks
#1092
March 29th, 2009 09:14
indeed silver birch rarely smoke without fire
#1093
March 29th, 2009 09:15
stephen ta for your efforts mate
#1094
March 29th, 2009 09:18
A few price quotes missing for Darkness now… oh. what a circus oh what a show, aintree has gone to town, over the price of a horse called Darkness….
as for ante post and as for fame, I never invited them in….
how do we solve a problem like the dark one …..Cornish Sett has lost three points on the league table …. spooks, gooks and gobbledygooks … it must be Timothy Claypole at the Meekers
Well,here’s the Crisp jury.
6.Cornish Sett
5.Rambling Minster
4.Brooklyn Brownie
3.State Of Play
2.Darkness
1.L’Ami
Rambling Minster 74
Kilbeggan Blade 36
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 26
State of Play 22
Cornish Sett 16
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 14
Brooklyn Brownie 9
Irish Invader 6
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 4
Black Apalachi 3
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 3
My Will 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
L’Ami 1
#1095
March 29th, 2009 09:21
id like a bowl full of what crisp has had for breakfast please
#1096
March 29th, 2009 09:24
Sorry Showlad, just re-read that Lough posted non runners. Deducting points..
Rambling Minster 74
Kilbeggan Blade 36
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 26
State of Play 22
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 14
Cornish Sett 13
Brooklyn Brownie 9
Irish Invader 6
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 4
Black Apalachi 3
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 3
My Will 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
L’Ami 1
#1097
March 29th, 2009 09:27
Another tipster goes for Rambo…
Eddie ‘the Shoe’ Fremantle in the Observer (although for some reason he was first taken in by Character Building’s winning-on-the-bridal performance in an amateur event) – still he’s come to his senses now
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/mar/29/horse-racing-sport-grand-national
Interesting what he says about Darkness and his RSA form – I have looked it up and 4 horses have run in the RSA in the last 15 years and won the National:
Miinneehoma (1st in RSA), subsequently 3rd in Welsh National and 7th in Gold Cup
Rough Quest (4th to Miinnehoma), subsequently 2nd in Hennessy, won Racing Post Chase and 2nd in Gold Cup
Earth Summit (7th in RSA), subsequently won Scottish National, 2nd and won Welsh National, 5th in Hennessy
Comply Or Die (2nd in RSA), subsequently 4th in Hennessy, won over 33f
Darkness (3rd in RSA), subsequently PU in Welsh National and won Class 2 Veterans’ race when likely winner ran into railings
Not convinced that Darkness is the real deal – the rest had proved themselves in proper, key handicap races (or even the Gold Cup) before the National or over won over 4m+
But then it’s all about opinions now – the facts are written after the race
#1098
March 29th, 2009 09:32
an update lads – 2 of the bookies who had taken him out of the betting have now put him back in and cut him to 25s … !
#1099
March 29th, 2009 09:41
Interesting read there in the Guardian Pablo. It seems a lot of tipsters are going for Rambo. They must have read this blog
I have posted articles in the Telegraph and Times aswell but for some reason it says the post is awaiting moderation! Not sure for what exactly.
#1100
March 29th, 2009 09:52
Rambling trying for a hat trick of wins next weekend.. his great granddaddy pulled of his own hat trick of course in 1970.. Nijinsky
#1101
March 29th, 2009 09:55
A different take from The Independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/my-will-offers-nicholls-a-way-to-grand-day-out-1656616.html
#1102
March 29th, 2009 10:52
Cards now up for thursday and Friday – anyone have any fancies or do we need a new thread for them?
#1103
March 29th, 2009 11:04
Darkness disappeared again from 3 bookies. What the hell’s going on
Wish they would make up their minds. I put my stake back on again last night. Can’t be dealing with this lol.
Ells
1
#1104
March 29th, 2009 11:06
Puzzled if you’re there. Any chance you could talk to Blue Square again. Got me worried this. Surely can’t have a third non-runner. I’m gonna have none running for me by Saturday.
Ells
1
#1105
March 29th, 2009 11:10
Then again, I received an email early this morning from William Hills stating that the staking limit had been reached and that he was now available to back a 33s. The fact that its the same 3 bookies again makes me think they’re probably just having trouble pricing him. Surely the others would have caught wind by now, seeing as 3 took him off last nite. Should be fine ells stop panicing
lol.
Ells
1
#1106
March 29th, 2009 11:10
lough don’t worry theyve just realised that youve put your stake back on so are all shortening to 15s hahaha
#1107
March 29th, 2009 11:36
Is anyone putting on a tricast or similar type of bet?
What would you pick as the top three?
I’m thinking.
1. Rambo
2. Butlers Cabin
Not sure about number three.
3. Irish Invader(stamina?), Himalayan(form?), Darkness(jumping?), K’Blade(ground?)
Any thoughts…
#1108
March 29th, 2009 11:37
Crisp – the problem is Lough Derg (the horse not the nervous ante-post punter!) being topweight all over the place – means I have to analyse about twice as many horses in the handicap hurdles – want some nice e/w doubles and trebles for my GN bets
#1109
March 29th, 2009 11:39
Sorry should say Cornish Sett not Crisp in post above
#1110
March 29th, 2009 11:40
Guys I’ve just seen this on the Betfair forum – not good news!
Phoned Hills who were next to useless, but Blue Square have him suspended in their betting as they have him as a “very possible non-runner”. If that is the case then shame on the firms who have shortened him in to 25s. I have no vested interest in the horse financially, having retrieved my stake last night, but clearly there are some negative vibes/rumours.
Gonna have to lay back out again asap.
Ells
1
#1111
March 29th, 2009 11:56
Also haven’t seen anyone post this yer from Racing Post confirming that only one of Mouse’s horses will run:
Russell is due to ride either War Of Attrition or Hear The Echo for Mouse Morris and Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown House Stud in the John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday.
Morris said on Sunday: ” One of them will be getting on the boat on Wednesday or Thursday and while we won’t make a final decision for a few days, it looks as if War Of Attrition will be the one we will run.”
Ells
1
#1112
March 29th, 2009 11:59
God I know I’m posting a lot today – but positive article on Kilbeggan Blade today too:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/connections-delighted-with-kilbeggan-blade/174481/top/
Ells
1
#1113
March 29th, 2009 12:19
Just to add to your newspaper round up for Rambo 2 page spread in Sunday Mail, forecasts from 3 prominant observers;
Bob Champion
1/Rambling Minister
2/Butlers Cabin
3/Black Apalache
4/War of Attrition
Jonathan Powell
1/Rambling Minister
2/State of Play
3/War of Attrition
4/My Will
Laurie Brannan
1/My Will
2/Rambling Minister
3/Kilbeggan Blade
4/Black Apalachi
#1114
March 29th, 2009 12:19
Found these articles, not sure if they already posted or not.
Rambo.
http://www.grandnationalpro.com/category/Grand-National-News/Minster-Going-Great-Guns-200903270004/
Darkness.
http://www.grandnationalpro.com/category/Grand-National-News/Darkness-in-Contention-for-National-200903270007/
#1115
March 29th, 2009 12:23
Had another £25 win and £20 EW on the Invader at 33′s yesterday.
Quite pleased with the 33′s at Hills, and pleased with the pundits generally avoiding it.
Especially pleased the forecast for Saturday rain never materialised.
#1116
March 29th, 2009 12:28
Lough don’t worry i have just spoken to blue sq and they assure both me and you that it is an in house problem and as far as they know there is nothing wrong with the horse and he is sound…….they are going to offer 25/1 on him in the next few minutes
So you can stop laying out now…he he he.
#1117
March 29th, 2009 12:29
darkness back with everyone except WH ???? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If the bookies could stop monkeying around with one of my 2 remaining holiday in florida fancies it would really really be appreciated !!
#1118
March 29th, 2009 12:32
Blue sq has some connection with sport 888 because when something changes or goes wrong with B/SQ the same follows suit at sport 888, maybe it is a sister company they offer same prices and stuff.
#1119
March 29th, 2009 12:33
now hes back with all 3 !…
#1120
March 29th, 2009 12:34
this is physchological torture !!
#1121
March 29th, 2009 12:39
silver birch i’m going back to my wardrobe idea until next saturday …… with the dark one blipping on and off like a dodgey tv and the emergance of people talking up HT again who i really really dont fancy at all fancy irish invader more but know my luck very well and can see a HT RAMBO DARKNESS 1,2,3 HAHA.
#1122
March 29th, 2009 12:40
Here is my first six
this is the top 6 order of finishing
1st Rambling Minster 6
2nd Darkness 5
3rd Irish Invader 4
4th My Will 3
5th Cornish sett 2
6th Kilbeggan Blade 1
Rambling Minster 80
Kilbeggan Blade 37
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 31
State of Play 22
Cornish Sett 15
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 14
Irish Invader 10
Brooklyn Brownie 9
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 4
Black Apalachi 3
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
L’Ami 1
#1123
March 29th, 2009 12:44
About time the table came back
Heres mine
6 Rambling Minster
5 Irish Invader (really can see this one being last years King Johns castle)
4 War of Attrition
3 Parsons Legacy
2 State of Play
1 Comply or Die
Rambling Minster 86
Kilbeggan Blade 37
Himalayan Trail 35
Darkness 31
State of Play 24
Cornish Sett 15
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 17
Irish Invader 15
Brooklyn Brownie 9
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Black Apalachi 3
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 7
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
L’Ami 1
#1124
March 29th, 2009 12:45
ok dragonman –
me too , my nerves are shredded and still 6 days to go .. i promise i wont mention anything more on himalayan trail to help your well being… irish invader is indeed a quality live outsider .. but every time i go to press the button to put a couple of fun quid on , the barriers from my innermost physche come up and tell me not to because hes never won any chase races beyond 2m .. anybody who can convince me why hes worth a couple of bob as a fun bet on the day ?. my fun bet was reveillez but i havent a clue whether hes running or not…
#1125
March 29th, 2009 12:51
Right, decided on doing two tricasts with,
Rambo – K’Blade – Darkness/I’Invader.
I forgot that Butlers is not very well-in, is this correct?
#1126
March 29th, 2009 12:58
Domi . re butlers – i think he ran of a mark of 134 – 135 at cheltenham and finished 5th .. now he has to run off a mark of 147 … !!! so in a normal race that would be like being raised 12lbs or so by the handicapper for finishing 5th which of course would be ccompletely outrageous . guess you need to decide whether returning to aintree is going to help him find 12lbs on form from his last race …
#1127
March 29th, 2009 13:04
Just to throw up something I found a little interesting on watching L’ami in the Silver Birch race just now. People say he didn’t appear to stay, which I can’t necessarily disagree with, altho like I say, hampered twice, 11-8 and only 8 years old, plus a tough season against the top competition would make a big difference. Anyways, in that race, Numbersixvalverde came 6th, 43l behind the winner carrying only 11-3, age 11. Hedgehunter came 9th, 59l behind the winner carrying 11-12 (a weight he carried only 12months before into second), age 11. Clan Royal came 11th, 102l behind the winner, carrying only 10-9, age 12.
I wouldn’t call any of these non-stayers. Two are previous National winners and one is a 2nd and 3rd and should have won at least once. I know they aren’t in their prime at 11 and 12 years of age. But it can hardly be said that a horse at only 8 years is old is in prime age for the Grand National. What’s the verdict on 11 yr olds vs 8 yr olds in previous winners?
L’ami finished 89l behind the winner, carrying 11-8, age 8.
I’m in no way saying this is proof he will stay, or he might do better. He may not. However I just find this information quite interesting. He had ran 3 times against Kauto that season including a very hard race in the Gold Cup less than a month before. After this season, he was asked to go out lugging round 11-8, over 4.5 miles at only 8 years of age. He also wore first time cheekpieces in the race which I find quite odd.
This year he has had a much easier season. Raced over long distances against reasonably average fields and a very good stable mate. Jumping Aintree style fences. Imo ran a very easy race comparitvely in the Cheltenham Festival and is now being asked to carry 10-11 round.
Like I say, in no way trying to alter anyone’s views. But I was starting to wonder whether I really believed he could win it, or whether he was just a great each way bet. I now once again think he can win it.
Any comments are welcome. Bring on the criticisms lol.
Ells
1
#1128
March 29th, 2009 13:09
Systems
Any chance you could post once agin (sorry) your pre Christmas trend qualifiers.
Thank you
#1129
March 29th, 2009 14:02
Lough Derg – regarding your post – I think these horses had lost their ability to sustain the tactical speed to get round with the leaders, almost regardless of the weight they carried (weight normally only comes into the equation in the last quarter or so of the race) – L’Ami had that tactical speed at 8
It takes a special horse to do much after its National win – not many have even won another race – which makes Hedgehunter’s performance in the Gold Cup all the more remarkable
#1130
March 29th, 2009 14:07
butlers cabin in to single figures now with some bookmakers and rambo into 10s with a fair few
#1131
March 29th, 2009 14:13
All three gone again now. This is very strange :s The fact that Blue Square are giving out conflicting messages aswell. Wish they would stop this lol. Not doing much for my health.
Ells
1
#1132
March 29th, 2009 14:16
can i just throw something out there…
isnt 11 a bit old for a national winner (9 & 10 being mostly the age of winners in recent years) – assuming we’re talking trends here.
Also hasnt Rambo’s form been pretty average at best until his 2 most recent performances – if this very recent glittering form is not maintained to the highest level it could spell disaster.
Im backing the horse myself and if you havent already guessed im not quite an ‘expert’ gambler but these are potentially big faults for this horse.
thoughts welcome…
#1133
March 29th, 2009 14:17
Have also had the same worries as shamus despite having backed it reasonably heavily.
I was wondering if there are any forum users who haven’t backed Rambo??
#1134
March 29th, 2009 14:25
hey dragonman move over in that wardrobe and find space for me will you.
that bloody lstd is driving me mad LOL.
i keep thinking there all sorted and he keeps sewing doubts and after thoughts in my mind.
roll on sat.and we can all start this all over again.
#1135
March 29th, 2009 14:26
the way ive just worked it out since 1990
age 9 – 5 winners
age 10 – 5 winners
age 11 – 4 winners
the others 8 or 12
must be due an 11 year old to make it 5 , 5 , 5 lol.
#1136
March 29th, 2009 14:34
while looking up the ages also came across …. 4 single figure odds winners since 1990 …………….. all 7-1 might just be how the odds are worked out i have no idea but if the favourite is 7-1 on the day might be worth a fun few quid.
#1137
March 29th, 2009 14:36
thanks to stephen for the following nicked it off his post on another thread on age last 30 runs
Here are the records for age in the last 30 runnings of the race…
8 Year Olds – 3 wins
9 Year Olds – 9 wins
10 Year Olds – 7 wins
11 Year Olds – 7 wins
12 Year Olds – 4 wins
#1138
March 29th, 2009 14:39
Sorry minty, if I’m going down you lot are going down with me lol. I’m only informing people when there’s a change with the bookies. I don’t like it anymore than you do but its happening. Just praying its some cock up and all is good. Blue Square and 888 back now. Just wish Hills wud come back and stay.
Ells
1
#1139
March 29th, 2009 14:42
Whats the views on Parsons Legacy. He’s not run much. Not backed him but was tipped up in the NOTW along with Cornish Sett, WOA and Priests leap! Is it worth a couple of quid as a back-up. Also Brooklyn Brownie seems to be getting some tips but hasn’t won a grade 1?
#1140
March 29th, 2009 14:50
Re Darkness – the thing that puts me off this one, despite a good profile, is that it pulled up in both the Scottish National and Welsh National! It may have won recently over 27f but that was just in a modest veterans race. I’m afraid I can’t have him in my shortlist.
#1141
March 29th, 2009 14:50
Parsons legacy for me is the nearly horse…he nearly meets all trends and nearly gets to the starting line then is withdrawn, this year i am going to wait till tuesday when we get the list of runners before i back him…..just in case i nearly get my fingers burnt again this year.
Brooklyn i have a small e.w bet on as a saver.
#1142
March 29th, 2009 14:53
Amyone heard any news on Hear the Echo? I see he’s drifting badly on Betfair. Looks like he’s been traded at 50 today.
#1143
March 29th, 2009 14:55
Mouse Morris said he’s take only one horse to Aintree and that looked like being WOA so maybe HTE a non-runner
#1144
March 29th, 2009 14:56
Parsons: Total class act; C1 winner; stamina proven; 2nd last run was v impressive win over 3m followed by a PU on poor ground for him. Runs best fresh, 3rd by less than 2 lengths to Hot Weld in Scots National – giving him nearly a stone.
Reportedly if good/good-soft ground a definite runner – which it will be.
In a few words TOTAL CLASS ACT, HUGE THREAT, DISCOUNT AT YOUR PERIL.
#1145
March 29th, 2009 15:00
To be honest could never understand why Hear the Echo was shortening back up again anyway. Weights have gone up and Mouse said he was a likely non runner not so long ago. Reason for drift today is probably because of comments made on RP today by jockey Russell today on Racing Post. See post earlier today. He states that only 1 will be travelling over and at the moment it looks like WOA.
RE- Parsons Legacy – probably second best chance of winning in my book, behind Rambo. Great profile and placed half stake on him after trainer’s comments indicating he would run providing ‘good’ was in the going description. Other half will go on very close to race day, once I know he’s running.
Broklyn Brownie is 5th on my list.
Ells
1
#1146
March 29th, 2009 15:01
Cheers Pablo. Too late for me as HtE was the first horse I backed but there you go. I discounted him though when Mr Smith ruled him out of contention on weights day!
#1147
March 29th, 2009 15:02
Hi Lough, was wanting to read that Parsons article again can’t it find anywhere. Can u remember where link was, think someone posted it up on here before…
BTW I feel Irish Invader is total speculation re getting distance and taken on trust but it seems to be taking hold…
#1148
March 29th, 2009 15:08
I’ll look for that link Showlad.
RE – Irish Invader, it is total speculation and had KJC not come 2nd last year, would we be giving him a chance? Possibly not. But I believe its due to his pedigree (though I’m not an expect in this field).
Bit of good news for Minty and other Darkness backers (I think). Post on Betfair in last 20 minutes -
An email from Hills earlier today:
“The reason you are unable to place a bet on Darkness in the Grand National, is because the online limit has been reached in regards to liabilities.
This will be revised after 10 am this morning by the relevant department, and the market made available to bet on.
A further Email @ 12:29
“The selections are now available on the site.”
I got a similar email this morning, but they took it off again. I guess they’re just having problems. That post from a guy who had been told by Blue Square that it had been withdrawn cos it was a very likely non-runner is what scared me tho. Unless he was ramping, but he didn’t seem the type.
Ells
1
#1149
March 29th, 2009 15:12
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/25032009/4/strong-hobbs-team-aintree.html
There’s a copy of the article Showlad. Not sure whether its the original article though.
Ells
1
#1150
March 29th, 2009 15:18
Thx for chekin out that Parson rare article Lough.
Darkness fans IMO – totally chill.
Rambo was getting repriced a few weeks ago and I totally laid a brick as Hill’s told me on phone ‘likley non-runner’ – thankfully I took it further, demanding (not that I was sweating or anything lol) that I got a quote from team actually compiling odds for GN market – the answer eventually came back ‘just re-pricing’ and the previous info, from a telephonist TOTALLY NOT in the know, but still happy to have me crapping my pants lol, was 100% wrong.
I think Betfair is best indicator though.
Bar an injury he is reported as ‘running if still has 4 legs’ I have good money on him too (quirky, classy, don’t think he will, but can’t ignore) and I’m cool. Chill
#1151
March 29th, 2009 15:21
Lough and silverbirch
have emailed hills again and asked what the craic is re: darkness, waiting on a reply.
and thanks showlad for bigging up parsons another of my main fancies , maybe have got something of a race to look forward to after all haha
#1152
March 29th, 2009 15:21
That was brill, thx Lough.
The very quote indeed: “The in-form handler runs Parsons Legacy in the John Smith’s Grand National – ground permitting.
“The National has always been the aim for him and he hasn’t run for a while because he is better fresh. He wants good ground, good to soft would be OK, but if it’s soft he won’t run,” he told At The Races”.
I cannot tell you all HOW PEEVED I will be if, on good ground looking almost a cert now, they then don’t run him.
Still GN is the biggie and they say the race was always aim – so looks fine.
#1153
March 29th, 2009 15:29
I will have another look at Parson’s because I don’t mind relatively unexposed Irish horses in my portfolio but prefer the British-trained ones to have been round the block a few times and he was never worth a bet until the week of the race because of last year’s antics
Good run first time out but need to see how well-handicapped this beast is before he gets my cash…
#1154
March 29th, 2009 15:30
regarding Rambling Minsters age it said in the newspaper article that he is still technically a 10 year old, being a May foal [most foals being born as close to New Years Day as possible, usually].
#1155
March 29th, 2009 15:31
Yep, I’ve emailed Hills for a second time earlier today. Also waiting on a reply. Took around 3 hours for a reply last night.
Ells
1
#1156
March 29th, 2009 15:44
Darkness shortened by 3 bookies to 25s – looks like a re-pricing at Hills.
Parsons now starting to come in…
#1157
March 29th, 2009 15:44
just had another look at irish invaders form on rp site …… he has only run 2-2.5 miles and more concerning and i maybe wrong but he doesnt really appear to have taken much on with a bit of class??
#1158
March 29th, 2009 15:51
Totally dragonman…it’s a TOTAL leap of faith that he will get distance – but some fear another KJC. Also, sounds crazy, but the forceful nature of his name gets a few nervous, as we get to that final few days jittery stage.
For outsiders I rate Offshore Account much more highly and Brooklyn Brownie (whose odds are surprisingly taking a long while to shorten).
…and there’s just that horse called..er..whats his name…o ye…Parsons Legacy sitting at massive 40s..
#1159
March 29th, 2009 15:59
I don’t know if anyone saw this before as for some reason it said it was being moderated. But here goes incase you missed it…
I was searching for Grand National Guides on Google to see if any of the press has written summaries of the contenders yet and stumbled across this page… We are famous
http://www.responsesource.com/releases/rel_display.php?relid=46547&hilite=
Incidently, Marcus Armytage in the Telegraph has Rambo as his number one pick.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/5066678/Guide-to-the-Grand-National-Horse-Racing.html
And this guide from The Times has Rambo as a definite shortlisted horse.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/sports_book/2009/03/guide-to-grand.html
#1160
March 29th, 2009 16:39
Hi Elliott,
Thank you for your email.
We are writing to inform you that due to a system error there was a problem with the Darkness coupon, this error has now been rectified so you should be able to place your bet.
We hope this has solved your query and we would like to apologise for the delay.
Regards,
Alexander
Customer Services
William Hill plc
He’s back on Hills at 33s. What are the chancs of 3 bookies having problems at the same time (or 2 if 888 and Blue Square are linked). Ah well, it all looks good.
Ells
1
#1161
March 29th, 2009 16:51
Had a look at Parson’s Legacy and for me the positives are:
1) Loves a really strong pace – two best performances have seen a really good gallop maintained throughout the race
2) Had good form 2 seasons ago and came back to form first time out after a break this year
3) Is a nice price at this stage – 40/1
But:
1) All his winning form has been in the Autumn when he is clearly fresh and wound up and others are perhaps just at the start of their season and finding their form (RM was not as wound up for London National as KB for example) – whereas about half the field of GN has been ‘trained for the race’
2) He will not get the really good ground he wants – it will be watered
3) I have my doubts that he will truly stay the 4m 4f enough to win the race (he may well prove me wrong)
On balance I think he’s a great place bet but just feel he will find one or two too good
#1162
March 29th, 2009 17:31
re PL:
Only 3 spring outings was 2nd in a chase at Chelts, then 2nd in Kim Muir at Chelts again to Cloudy by less than a length and gave him 6lbs and then a brilliant 3rd in Scottish Nat to Hot Weld by less than 2 lengths and giving HW 15lbs and second placed Nine De Sivola 9lbs. All over 3m. Scot Nat over 4m.
Going should be good which will be fine (won on good in Oct past).
Staying a prob – Top 3 in TEN 3m or more races. Come on…
#1163
March 29th, 2009 17:37
AINTREE GOING REPORT:
Course Aintree (Grand National)
Next Race Thursday 2nd April
Report Date Sunday 29th March; 4:30 pm
Going Good (Good to Soft in places) watering to maintain
#1164
March 29th, 2009 17:37
Omg guys shock horror just found out rambo is a possible non runner due to injury
#1165
March 29th, 2009 17:38
So do we all agree that the weather this should ensure quick going?
Think I remember when Silver Birch won that they watered, and was on the soft side of good Is that right?
#1166
March 29th, 2009 17:41
Should be GOOD. They will water it to keep it no faster than good.
#1167
March 29th, 2009 17:44
dont start that argument again. the ground was officially good, a good (and firm) ground horse called mckelvey would have won, and the time was faster than the last two other good ground nationals. the ground was watered so as not to have fast ground. if you remember the weather that year it was hot and sunny and no rain at all. if you want my view they will aim to produce ground between good and good to soft, but NOT SOFT.
#1168
March 29th, 2009 17:45
Did make softer that it should have been if I remember (i was happy as i’d backed SB!!)
Never know until the day what effect it has…….
#1169
March 29th, 2009 17:49
My top 6
1. Rambling Minster 6
2. Himalayan Trail 5
3. State of Play 4
4. Black Apalachi 3
5. Irish Invader 2
6. Cornish Sett 1
Rambling Minster 92
Himalayan Trail 40
Kilbeggan Blade 37
Darkness 31
State of Play 28
Cornish Sett 16
Southern Vic 14
Parsons Legacy 17
Irish Invader 17
Brooklyn Brownie 9
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
War of Attrition 7
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
L’Ami 1
#1170
March 29th, 2009 17:49
Good balanced comments about Parsons Legacy, Hennessey and Scots Nat form, should be my best friend and about 10/1! But there are ground issues and a long time since last run. Didn’t need to spend much at all on Darkness at 40/1 to cover so far so maybe Parsons next if we get confirmation and Aintree forget to pay their water bills!
Talking about long time since last run … Evan Williams – State Of Play- was born on the day that Specify won his National the horse that boasts the longest lay off, 84 days, in modern times before winning the GN. How strange is that!?
#1171
March 29th, 2009 17:56
Cornish Sett’s price dropping! Seems to be a genuine 40/1 chance now.
#1172
March 29th, 2009 17:59
Baggy don’t know who you’re thinking of but I haven’t had an ‘argument’ with ANYONE re going.
While we’re on that subject I’m not going in for conspiracy theories either. If they water to keep no more than ‘Good’ that’s fine for me. If Good was really ‘Good/Soft’ I’m sure much of the racing fraternity would have much to say about that being a fallacy..
Crisp trainer is delib leaving Parsons for long gap since last run…they feel much better fresh..suppose we’ll just have to trust their judgement..
Catch 22 with PL price though, if still in, price will half or more..I’m on now, if it goes t*** up, then so be it, life’s too short
#1173
March 29th, 2009 18:07
All but 4 bookies now got Rambo @10s..
#1174
March 29th, 2009 18:08
That’s the spirit Showlad, – Mick Robinson and the gang on Magpie didn’t give up when they were getting beaten in the ratings by Val and Noakesy- felt the same about SOP when I backed it at 33/1, will it run, will it end up with too much weight … really like Parsons, won money on it before. It’s odd that this year there are two horses with high GN prospects who are both tryng to go against this days since last run stat, a stat which has been much discussed this year.
#1175
March 29th, 2009 18:08
Hi
If anybody has the time could they provide me with a list of any winners who PU in a previous Grand National before going on to win it. And if possible reasons for pulling up. Weakening, hit a fence, hampered etc.
Thanks a lot
Ells
1
#1176
March 29th, 2009 18:13
i refer to previous posting that paddy (p.pow)is best of mates with a certain mr.mullins.
seen price on IRISH INVADER.backed him at 50′s weeks ago,maybe its bo—-ks but as showlad says life’s too short and its a good e/w gamble.
#1177
March 29th, 2009 18:16
Well Crisp, I was out shopping the other day – piles of sticky back plastic were on sale at half price. So thought ‘I’ll just take these tins of chappie back to the studio for Shep’s grandson’s tea first..’ and well, you know, when I got back..the whole display had sold out. Cheeky bloody shopkeeper then put the price back up to full (and then some) for the amount he had on display behind the counter…
Live for now that’s what I say. I would be sriously gutted if Rambo pulled out, but with it all it’s what they call ANTE-POST – HUGE early bird prices that even with some call-offs hopefully you’re still left quids in..
#1178
March 29th, 2009 18:20
Darkness well in across the boards now – I told yer not to worry my luvlies
27s on Betfair and only 3 bookies remain at 33s and as low as 20s with PP.
#1179
March 29th, 2009 18:26
“Staying a prob – Top 3 in TEN 3m or more races. Come on…”
National is an extreme distance not a bog standard stayers’ race – I think Parson’s will struggle to win on watered ground – that’s my opinion – take it or leave it
We know he stayed 33f on Good to Firm ground off a lightning pace but will he stay 36f on watered ground?
Noone knows but we’ll find out next week
Or would you rather I said Parson’s is the outstanding National bet of the year and that’s why he’s 40/1 for the National with 6 days to go?
#1180
March 29th, 2009 18:30
Lough, this came up last year, I think Wacky was asking… think this is comprehensive list since ’46;
Early Mist- previously fell; ESB- fell; Royal Tan- 2nd, fell;
Sundew- fell twice; Kilmore- 5th;
Team Spirit- fell, 9th, fell, 4th; Red Alligator- fell;
Highland Wedding- 8th,7th; Specify-fell; Red Rum- 1st;
Lescargot- knocked over, 3rd, 2nd, 1st; Rag Trade- 10th;
Red Rum- 1st,1st, 2nd, 2nd;
Ben Nevis- brought down, remounted and pulled up before next fence; Hallo Dandy- 4th; West Tip – fell;
Little Polveir- 9th, ur, ur; Royal Athlete- fell in void GN;
Red Marauder-fell; Amberleigh House- brought down, 3rd;
Hedgehunter- fell; Silver Birch- fell.
#1181
March 29th, 2009 18:38
Just done a review of the top 8 in the blog list and suitability for Good and Good/Soft ground in the GN. These are the results (5 stars best down to 0 stars worse)
Rambling Minster
Good: ***** (5 stars)
Good/Soft ***** (5 stars)
Kilbeggan Blade
Good: **** (4 Stars)
Good/Soft: ***** (5 Stars)
Himalayan Trail
Good: **** (4 Stars)
Good/Soft: **** (4 Stars)
Darkness
Good: ***** (5 Stars)
Good/Soft: ***** (5 Stars)
State of Play
Good: ***** (5 Stars)
Good/Soft: ***** (5 Stars)
Cornish Sett
Good: **** (4 Stars)
God/Soft: ***** (5 Stars)
Southern Vic
Good: – (No Stars)
Good/Soft: * (1 Star)
Parsons Legacy
Good: ***** (5 Stars)
Good/Soft: ***** (5 Stars)
Amazing of the top eight selectios all are safe on Good or Good/Soft ground other than Southern Vic. And no problem for Rambo at all he loves it all!!
#1182
March 29th, 2009 18:41
Oh now Pablo, we’re a bit touchy tonight, lol…
No Pablo I genuinely respect your opinion and stating mine was not meant as dogmatic as it maybe came across.
Lol – any more misunderstndings on this blog and admin will have to set up a confessional thread lol
#1183
March 29th, 2009 18:44
Hi Systemsman still waitin on your info/view re SV.
Pls do post up as am lookin forward to reading – as I just don’t get him at all to same extent, but am open to others views (concerned I’m missing something vital on him)..
#1184
March 29th, 2009 18:47
My final selections:
Rambling Minster 6
Darkness 5
now it gets hard
Southern Vic 4 (ground problems!)
Kilbeggan Blade 3 (no class 1 place)
Butlers Cabin 2 (no prep form)
Himalayan Trail 1 (failed to finish twice)
Rambling Minster 98
Himalayan Trail 41
Kilbeggan Blade 40
Darkness 36
State of Play 28
Southern Vic 18
Parsons Legacy 17
Irish Invader 17
Cornish Sett 16
Brooklyn Brownie 9
War of Attrition 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Butlers Cabin 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
butlers cabin 1
L’Ami 1
#1185
March 29th, 2009 18:47
Systems, I like the ‘god’ next to Cornish- who is now 33/1 with Coral and Stan James!
Does anybody want to discuss Kilbeggan Blade. I’ve completely written him winning- which he will probably do now- because of his lack of success in C1 chases. (I know I’ve listed Brooklyn Brownie but he’s been competitive in C1′s and has got a top 3 place in one)
#1186
March 29th, 2009 18:48
Delete the line “butlers cabin 1″
#1187
March 29th, 2009 18:48
OK guys is there any ideas of how to get 5 Day Dec info speedily 2mo?
SERIOUS re this post – we cannot wait over a day again.
1st forfeit stage was posted up a lot earlier on Aintree site as LOTS of us called asking when their web updated.
An idea for tomorrow?
No harm us askin the source of the race when info will be released..
#1188
March 29th, 2009 18:49
above post should be written him off winning
#1189
March 29th, 2009 18:50
Typos galore – gosh we’re all gettin’ the jitters..
#1190
March 29th, 2009 18:53
Showlad, last year I think the 5 day decs went on immediate press release by mid day wasn’t it? We can always relax and make a tracy island out of some old washing up bottles while we wait.
#1191
March 29th, 2009 18:58
Crisp
“Does anybody want to discuss Kilbeggan Blade. I’ve completely written him winning- which he will probably do now- because of his lack of success in C1 chases”
Well I completely agree with you Crisp. He’s in my short list as he does have other trends and i am a coward following the herd like others and he also comes into my Pre-Christmas GN winners profile. Not placed in a Class 1 further than 3 miles(think its a 19/20 trend Montys Pass being the exception)- just cannot be ignored (but so many of you have).
Likewise for Himalayan Trail – only 8 prep runs and two failed to finish twice this season(but also in my Pre-Christmas GN winners profile list). Yet KB and HT are 2nd and 3rd in the list!! I think it time for the supporters of these two to speak out and tell us why they are such a good thing despite the negatives.
#1192
March 29th, 2009 19:01
Are you going to do the same then with SV who is 3rd on your list?
#1193
March 29th, 2009 19:12
Totally with yo there, Systems. There doesn’t seem to be a lot about Kilbeggan, low TS- still not quite sure topspeed is is to be honest what do the figures represent- and ok his Scots Nat flop is not uncommon but other C1 races have been on heavy which I thought he preferred.
#1194
March 29th, 2009 19:12
“Showlad says:
March 29, 2009 at 6:20 PM
Darkness well in across the boards now – I told yer not to worry my luvlies
27s on Betfair and only 3 bookies remain at 33s and as low as 20s with PP.”
Reply
Agreed Showland Darkness will have the correct price profile for GN day (33/1 or under and preferably 20/1 or under). I think he will be one of the runneers that will contract the most between now and the off – get on now if you want to be on the 2nd best horse for the GN!
I am keeping a price movement record started yesterday an will post the results on Friday evening along with my usual eve of GN price review (follow the money to find the winner which got CoD last year – an alternative to trends).
#1195
March 29th, 2009 19:16
“Showlad says:
March 29, 2009 at 7:01 PM
Are you going to do the same then with SV who is 3rd on your list?”
Reply
I have rereviewed SV (in view of his 3rd in his last prep race) in the last 24 hours and as you can see he is 3rd on my list. Now very worried about the ground as you can see by my review (but I think he could manage G/S). Will post reasons why he is the third best bet very soon (tonight if possible). However you should know that Rambo and the Dark One stand out by far as the best trends bets.
#1196
March 29th, 2009 19:35
Thomas says:
March 29, 2009 at 5:37 PM
Omg guys shock horror just found out rambo is a possible non runner due to injury
This is posted this afternoon and no-one mentions it??????? have we all missed it or is it a sick joke or something?
#1197
March 29th, 2009 19:39
Thanks Systemsman…really feel you’ve overlooked the Big One in Parson’s…
#1198
March 29th, 2009 19:52
RAMBO injury – Think we all missed it – Thomas where r u?…has ‘Thomas’ posted up here much or 1st post?
If 1st post then it’s a sicko joko…
#1199
March 29th, 2009 19:58
Pretty sure its not true. He’s still holding strong on Betfair. If he knows it then surely somebody else would know it and therefore his price would have drifted.
Systemsman – I thought after your final analysis Cornish Sett came out a very good 3rd? How has he now dropped out of your 6? Or am I wrong?
Stick my neck out and say I’ll be very surprised if SV, KB or BC win and HT won’t win.
Ells
1
#1200
March 29th, 2009 20:06
An injury wouldn’t stop Rambo – haven’t you seen the movie?
#1201
March 29th, 2009 20:08
think the amount of lists he tops on here , he would be stretchered round in the event of an injury.
#1202
March 29th, 2009 20:11
Admin: can u do anything about such posts if they are a deliberate lie to cause us all heart failure lol?
#1203
March 29th, 2009 20:11
I’ve not backed DARKNESS and probably won’t. As I posted last night, he may stagger on for a place but I think his jumping will let him down at some stage and cost him any chance of victory.
A chaser can get away with a few mistakes over 3m in a smaller field, but in the Grand National poor jumping takes an increased physical toll and sees a horse plummet faster than the Dow Jones. You only have to study D’ARGENT last year. (My top pick in 2008 by the way so I’ve learned from his mistakes.)
He was ticking over OK, up with the pace, out of trouble. As soon as he caught a few fences on the second circuit, he lost ground quickly and tumbled out of the race. Better jumping would have kept him in the pack and obviously kept him stronger for the all-important run-in.
Some horses have got away with a single bad jump and gone on to win the GN – Red Rum and Miinnehoma included. Most winners pick off the fences without fuss though and conserve their energy.
No matter how good Darkness is, if he whacks two or three fences in the hurly-burly or breaks his rhythm on landing his chance will be gone. I suppose you have to consider how likely it is that Darkness will successfully jump 30 big fences without serious mishap?
On the evidence of the accounts of his runs to date, it is arguably very unlikely. He will therefore need a few better horses to be taken out during running to win, and with good or good/soft going expected and the number of finishers shaping up as 12+ accordingly, that probably won’t happen.
I also suspect Darkness’s poor record in big fields is down to his nervy jumping.
From 17 races (hurdles and chases) he’s not won in a race of 14 runners or more. In fact his record in bigger contests is poor.
13 runners or less – 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
14 runners or more – 3 0 3 PU 3 PU
To grossly misquote Oscar Wilde, to blunder once is unfortunate (but not catastrophic), to blunder twice or more is curtains!
That’s my view – but as always good luck to those who have backed him. I’m merely explaining why he’s off my list after serious consideration.
#1204
March 29th, 2009 20:17
Here’s one for KB fans….
TOM GEORGE on Sunday said that Kilbeggan Blade had enjoyed an ideal preparation for Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National.
A general 25-1 chance for the race,the ten-year-old has won three of his last four starts, including landing the Grade 3 London National at Sandown in December.
“He’s been out in the paddock today and I actually rode him myself this morning. He’ll just do one faster piece of work next week.”
#1205
March 29th, 2009 20:17
Has Ruby Walsh chosen Irish Invader?
#1206
March 29th, 2009 20:21
I’m not Darkness’ biggest fan by a long way but he has never fallen. I remember Snowy Morning being labelled, pre race as cert to falll last year.
#1207
March 29th, 2009 20:24
Am I mistaken, or has KB won a decent race (Class 2?) at Sandown recently???
I think with KB and HT we backers are making a few allowances for sure. But same must be true for virtually all, apart from Rambo!
Southern Vic (lacks quality) and Darkness (PU in 2 “Nationals”) are out of the equation for me.
I AM DESPERATE FOR RAMBO TO WIN THIS YR TO KEEP THE TRENDS WELL AND TRULY ALIVE!
#1208
March 29th, 2009 20:27
Darkness may well get round, but I think his jumping will ruin any chance he’s got of being first past the post. Blunders take their toll.
In my view, he’s effectively giving the more reliable jumpers a head start of maybe 10 or 20 lengths (who knows?).
#1209
March 29th, 2009 20:27
Stats Man,
Interesting you say that Southern Vic lacks quality given that he’s won a couple of Grade One events. I can see why people may say that he lacks stamina, but not quality.
#1210
March 29th, 2009 20:28
My Will, Southern Vic, BFT in the pink, Irish Invader is sky blue across the board, it’s like a Coventry City convention.
#1211
March 29th, 2009 20:28
Weather today in Liverpool – Sunshine all day with not a cloud in the sky.
#1212
March 29th, 2009 20:31
Rambo is 21/2 with Betfair, lowest price to date. How long before he heads the market?
#1213
March 29th, 2009 20:35
Hi Admin,If THOMAS the TANK ENGINE has sent that post about RAMBO being injured in as a joke i think he should be sent across the road to play with the traffic!!We may get a little heated on here at times but its only because we want to help everyone back the national winner!!This is my last post this year and if the stats hold up this year Rambling Minster will be the Grand National winner for 2009.”I’LL BE BACK”
#1214
March 29th, 2009 20:35
Fair point about Darkness but I can recall a few winners who hit a few but things fell right for them on the day- Rhyme N Reason was on the floor at 1st Bechers, Seagram hit two or three really hard but luckily only had to chase a completely knackered gold cup winner, Garrison Savannah, past the elbow and look at Hedgehunter he made two blunders early on in his year. Who’s to say Darkness won’t be chasing an 11st plus horse at the elbow on Saturday.
#1215
March 29th, 2009 20:43
“Who’s to say Darkness won’t be chasing an 11st plus horse at the elbow on Saturday.”
He’ll be chasing State of Play. In vain.
#1216
March 29th, 2009 20:49
Can’t be having State of Play at all but appreciate he’s popular. A touch too much weight and he was very poor in most recent race when I backed him. Very one paced. Could scrape a place but not to win for me
Please can someone clarify something. Am I correct in thinking that Conna Castle is a probable non runner?
#1217
March 29th, 2009 20:53
Yer Speedy
#1218
March 29th, 2009 20:59
I put Darkness right down on my list but think he might move back up a little as I I’m not too worried about his jumping now.
Read this article today in Irish Independent:
Furthermore, I am far from convinced Ruby Walsh won’t discover blood thicker than water and opt to ride Southern Vic, in which case his odds will tumble even faster than Papillon’s did on National day 2000.
Softer ground would have made him the selection but with present conditions marginal preference is for Darkness. Formerly one of the best of his generation as a novice (won Grade 1 Feltham and third in SunAlliance), he made an excellent return from the sidelines when third off top-weight in a fiercely competitive handicap at Haydock in November.
In light of that run where he had Rambling Minster (already with the benefit of a run) 20 lengths behind, yet is 7lbs better off — it gives Darkness a compelling chance and quite why he is three times the price of the fancied Reveley runner is perplexing to me. It may be linked to his miserable run second time in the Welsh National which itself is easily explained with the ‘bounce’ factor. His only other race (which he had sown up at half-way and couldn’t have won more easily) came after the National weights had been framed — so he is technically 8lbs well-in.
AP McCoy has ridden Darkness in his last three wins and were he available to partner the Egerton runner, he would be a fraction of the 33s now on offer. My sense is that an extreme trip will bring about even further improvement. I will never forget how many fences he uprooted on his way round Cheltenham in the SunAlliance, was last turning downhill, yet still had enough stamina to stay on past horse after horse to finish third.
And therein lies the caveat. His jumping has improved markedly since his return and, like many attempting Aintree for the first time, he will either love it or hate it.
At 33/1, it is worth the risk and if he gets into a rhythm on the first circuit, he has a superb chance
In light of this I decided to watch both races back. Imo jumped superbly well in his 2 finished races this year. Didn’t make a mistake until the final fence at Haydock and in his last race I thought he jumped really well. Maybe the reason he made such novicey jumps before his break is because he was just that.. a novice.
Haydock – held up in touch, chased leaders approaching 4 out, every chance approaching last, weakening when mistake last opened 18/1 touched 20/1
Newbury – chased leaders, hit 10th, went 2nd 15th, left in clean led to bend after 17th, unchallenged after, eased flat opened 11/4 touched 11/4
Hardly the comments we used to see from him before his injury (hit 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th etc).
Can understand people’s reason for dismissing him, but one of the best on the trends and in really good form. Plus fits the trend of the last 2 winners, of winning the Grand National in 1st season after coming back from long-term injury.
Only thing that worries me now is his two PU’s in Scots and Welsh Nationals.
Ells
1
#1219
March 29th, 2009 21:00
can some advise how to know what races outside of the UK are classed as. for example if you check irish invaders wins on RP website only one has a note about class. I am assuming the grade 3 is a class 1 event but what about the others?
#1220
March 29th, 2009 21:06
Yer, grades are C1. I tend to look at prize money and the other horses. Sure somebody could give you a better way though.
Ells
1
#1221
March 29th, 2009 21:12
Say Rambo was to end up favourite for the race, would this be a big trends no-no? I seem to remember Systemsman suggesting that this would not be a good thing?
#1222
March 29th, 2009 21:17
To be honest (unsure if people are joking with these things, so sorry if I’ve misunderstood), but things like that don’t mean anything. Patterns. There’s no reason why he’s any less likely to win if he’s favourite than if he is 2nd favourite lol. If the last 5 winners went, not grey, grey, not grey, grey, not grey… doesn’t mean we will have a grey horse win this year lol.
Ells
1
#1223
March 29th, 2009 21:30
Rambo reported on 4 text as ‘on fire’.
btw did you know James rode Endless Power, God rest his soul, to victory over GN fences in the Grand Sefton in Nov? Major plus for me. Gran Mary says James has really ‘gelled’ with Rambo
#1224
March 29th, 2009 21:49
Rambo reported on 4 text as ‘on fire’.
btw did you know James rode Endless Power, God rest his soul, to victory over GN fences in the Grand Sefton in Nov? Major plus for me. Gran Mary says James has really ‘gelled’ with Rambo
firstly for gods sake someone fetch the fire brigade ….. he’s got to win us all some money next weekend
on the second point i read that tonight on c4 text too got to be a big plus that the jockey at least has survived the fences before.
#1225
March 29th, 2009 22:14
Hey guys, not new to the website as such, this is my 3rd year reading the blog, but now my first ever blog itself! Backed COD last year, thanks to the hard work and dedication of many on here, so a big thank you! Consequently I’m sure you won’t be surprised to hear I have a small amount on Rambo this time around!
I revisited the website about 6 weeks ago and have been hooked and reading everybody’s comments ever since (I really don’t know how I’ve managed to contain myself up until now!) But personally, pointless and unsubstantiated comments like Thomas’s really wind me up! If he’d have waited and posted it up on Wednesday April 1st then I could have at least half understood the reasoning behind that!
Lol anyway, my top 6 is as follows:-
1. Rambo=6
2. Brooklyn Brownie=5
3. Darkness=4
4. Parsons Legacy=3
5. Kilbeggan Blade=2
6. Cornish Sett=1
New Totals
Rambling Minster 104
Kilbeggan Blade 42
Himalayan Trail 41
Darkness 40
State of Play 28
Parsons Legacy 20
Southern Vic 18
Irish Invader 17
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 14
War of Attrition 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Butlers Cabin 4
Silver Birch 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1226
March 29th, 2009 22:19
Here is my list of top 6 horses…
Rambling Minster – 6
State Of Play – 5
Irish Invader – 4
Darkness – 3
Brooklyn Brownie – 2
Parsons Legacy – 1
New table…
Rambling Minster 104
Himalayan Trail 41
Kilbeggan Blade 40
Darkness 39
State of Play 33
Irish Invader 21
Southern Vic 18
Parsons Legacy 18
Cornish Sett 16
Brooklyn Brownie 11
War of Attrition 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Butlers Cabin 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1227
March 29th, 2009 22:25
i think we should speak to the press complaints commission about the irish independent article on darkness.
His only other race (which he had sown up at half-way and couldn’t have won more easily) – in fact he was second 5 out and having watched the race no sure thing to beat irish raptor. and what did he beat in this race? check out the others and their form.
His jumping has improved markedly since his return – the newbury quote Newbury – chased leaders, hit 10th, went 2nd 15th, left in clean led to bend after 17th, unchallenged after, eased flat opened 11/4 touched 11/4 actually reads like this on the RP website.
tracked leaders HIT 10th and 12th, went 2nd 15th HIT next and 17th, 2L 2nd whjen hampered and left in clear lead after 17th, HIT 2 out, edged left run in, comfortably.
#1228
March 29th, 2009 22:27
Hi everyone,
sorry if this has been covered earlier. Can someone tell me how many career falls we can allow??
Huge thanks to all who’ve contributed. It’s been great fun again this year.
#1229
March 29th, 2009 22:29
Nice one, Stephen. That 1-2 will suit me, sir.
I’m still mulling over the remainder of my top six before posting, although I’m struggling to get enthused about any except Rambo and SOP. Darkness for a place with COD maybe?
#1230
March 29th, 2009 22:32
neil off the top of my head i think it was 3
#1231
March 29th, 2009 22:34
Sorry posted same time as Stephen,
New Totals
Rambling Minster 110
Kilbeggan Blade 42
Himalayan Trail 41
Darkness 43
State of Play 33
Parsons Legacy 21
Irish Invader 21
Southern Vic 18
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 16
War of Attrition 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Butlers Cabin 3
Silver Birch 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1232
March 29th, 2009 22:34
discount any horse who has fallen more than twice, national excluded, as none has been placed in the first 4 in the last 9 renewals.
only 1 winner during this time (bindaree i think) has fallen more than once (again national not included).
#1233
March 29th, 2009 22:34
It’s Rambo vs all the others now for me, since Character Building was taken out. He stands out as the number one chance in the race.
Irish Invader could be this years KJC for me. Mullins seems pretty keen on this one and the price in now collapsing everywhere. He would blow the trends out of the water should he win but I can see him running very well into a place, like KJC. I managed to get a small each way on at 40/1 so we’ll see how he goes.
#1234
March 29th, 2009 22:39
looks like the three horses being shortened are darkness, irish invader and cornish sett. i cant have the last two as neither will stay well enough to win for sure but after todays readings i am wondering whether to just have a saver on darkness and hope a) he suddenly likes lots of company b) he doesnt hit the fences too hard and c) he stays unlike most related in anyway to strong gale.
#1235
March 29th, 2009 23:03
Yes I agree the bit about the ‘winning easily’ part. I think he would have got the better of Irish Raptor for sure, but it was far from ‘sewn up half way out’ However I whole heartedly diasgree with RP’s judgement of the race, they must’ve been wtchin the wrong race. I watched the race with eager eyes live as I had already had a bet on Darkness for the National. Thought he ran very well. Then I watched it again after people had mentioned his jumping and saw him hit 1 fence, and that was hardly bone shattering, landed fine and took nothing from his pace. Then tonight after reading that comment I watched it AGAIN and thought his jumping was pretty faultless. I’ve been putting Darkness down of late and demoted him to the bottom of my shortlist. So was going into it with negative eyes if anything. But how they can say he hit more than 1 fence, and possibly brushed the last 1 I do no know.
Ells
1
#1236
March 29th, 2009 23:06
I for one won’t back anything thats not
either – in the form of its life
or – coming back into the form
of its life.
out of form horses don’t win the National do they ?.
For me they have to have recently put up a career best or near best performance.
#1237
March 29th, 2009 23:07
cheers lough. i dont remember any jumping problems to be honest at the time either, except irish raptor running into the fence!
#1238
March 29th, 2009 23:09
I Have a good size bet on Darkness and draw comfort from the fact that in the past he has hit fences and not fallen.
To me this shows an intelligent horse who can correct himself when making mistakes, just the kind of horse you would need round Aintree !
#1239
March 29th, 2009 23:19
i had 8 horses left last night for my tricasts and darkness was still in. 33/1 on darkness is a value bet given what is left – VC going 20/1 cornish sett anyone? -. i would still be watching through my fingers but good luck to everyone. for sure it has a chance but it could be a bumpy ride.
#1240
March 29th, 2009 23:48
now i’m beginning to worry about state of play.
#1241
March 30th, 2009 00:19
Coral now NRNB for National, thinking about taking their offer on 33/1 on Parson’s to replace Character Building. Hopefully this might incourage the other big firms to follow suit.
#1242
March 30th, 2009 01:12
http://www.acapela.tv/Cartoon-bcf6076cfbe5-bcf607bb0688-bcf6071181817-3-5-6
Although for some reason I put shoulder not elbow :s.
That’s my dream scenario anyway lol.
Ells
1
#1243
March 30th, 2009 01:15
the analysis so far
the most likely – rambling minster
the plotted up – himalayan trail
the one that might not even run – parsons legacy
the plodder – kilneggan blade
the enigma – darkness
the class act – state of play
watch my will win.
#1244
March 30th, 2009 01:44
there was a question earlier whether a similar list will be opened re the meeting in general so we can swap our ideas for the 3 days. anyone any input?
#1245
March 30th, 2009 07:00
baggy352 says:
March 30, 2009 at 1:44 AM
there was a question earlier whether a similar list will be opened re the meeting in general so we can swap our ideas for the 3 days. anyone any input?
Admin has opened a new thread – not many contributions yet but i’m sure these will come as the week progresses.
Roll on 12pm – should make the picture much clearer when the 5 day confirmations are announced!
#1246
March 30th, 2009 07:19
I thought it was 1st April when I first read this!!!
History could be made at Aintree where each fence can now be bypassed should there be an obstruction – equine or human – on the landing side.
In the past fences 13, 14, The Chair (15) and the water (16) have been passable, but now that has been extended to the rest of the course including the line of fences down to Becher’s, the Brook itself, Foinavon and the Canal Turn. Fibresand has been laid on an old service track to the outside, which allows horses to use that as a means of missing a fence.
Last year paramedics and doctors had roughly four-and-a-half minutes to make a potentially life or death call about whether they moved Mick Fitzgerald, who had broken his neck and was lying on the landing side of the second fence. Should more time be required to tend an injured jockey or horse, signs will be placed in the fence sending the remaining runners on the second circuit to the right of the fence.
“We thought it might be a bit tight initially, but it looks a bit like a lay-by beside each fence,” explained clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch. “If there was a problem before we put orange discs opposite in the fence to try and keep riders and, importantly, loose horses away. Ultimately, it’s not about lessening the test, it’s about improving the safety.”
#1247
March 30th, 2009 07:38
TRAINER Ted Walsh believes his son, Ruby, is likely to ride Paul Nicholls’ My Will in the John Smith’s Grand National.
Walshs’ first ride in the £900,000 marathon was a successful one on Walsh senior’s Papillon, and his first for trainer Willie Mullins in 2005 went the same way when Hedgehunter proved victorious, but his first and only ride for Nicholls on Shotgun Willy in 2003 ended at the 21st obstacle.
This year the Irish champion jockey has a choice of partnering contenders from all three camps at Aintree on Saturday, however, unless there is an unexpected deluge of rain in the next few days,Walsh senior expects his son to team up with My Will, the general ante-post favourite.
“I’m praying for rain,” Ted Walsh said. “If it gets heavy, Ruby will be on mine, but if not, he’ll probably ride one of Paul Nicholls’ runners.
“I don’t know for sure, and he’ll have to talk to Paul, but I’d say he’ll probably go for experience and ride My Will.”
#1248
March 30th, 2009 07:46
i have always thought walsh would be on my will, whihc is why i fear it most. and he also would have had the choice of irish invader. SV and irish invader – not for me. also not a good quote for those on SV indicating it needs a lot of give in the ground.
i have also had no doubt mccoy will be on butlers cabin. i think they really believe he was unlucky last year and whilst l’ami may have a squeak again this should give you a pointer about whether they think it can win.
#1249
March 30th, 2009 08:15
Hi all. I’ve been away for a while but just thought I’d drop by and let you know that I’ve set up my own site for the National to spell out my selection process. It’s not all uploaded yet but should be by the end of today and further revisions will be made throughout the week. I’d love your feedback if you get chance to check it out – the site is http://www.racingrascal.com and my e-mail is called_andryka@yahoo.co.uk if you can send me your thoughts. My stats analysis is now complete and my list is down to 7 – in this order KILBEGGAN BLADE, RAMBLING MINSTER, DARKNESS, BUTLER’S CABIN, IRISH INVADER, SOUTHERN VIC and ALWAYS WAINING.
KB and RM are well ahead but I am encouraged by market support for Butler’s Cabin who I was backing heavily in January. My recent bets have all been for the first two however.
Good luck everyone – just days to go!
#1250
March 30th, 2009 08:21
“TRAINER Ted Walsh believes his son, Ruby, is likely to ride Paul Nicholls’ My Will in the John Smith’s Grand National.”
Ramping?
#1251
March 30th, 2009 08:29
Hi, read somewhere last night on the site someone posted that
Cornish Sett would not stay the distance.
Imagine my surpirise on reading an article in the news of the world on Cornish Sett stating how he is related to two national winners
Rhyme and Reason & Hello Dandy.
Come on Cornish Sett !!!. I know i’m in a Minority but i just have such a strong feeling about this one.
#1252
March 30th, 2009 08:42
i dont believe cornish sett stayed the distance last year and see no reason why it will this. previous national finishers do not have records of improving from 9th to win the following year.
#1253
March 30th, 2009 08:45
Superwinger, right on, Cornish Sett has placed at 30f, stamina doubts are laughable. I think the big question is perhaps the quick flat track at Aintree may be doesn’t suit him, it didn’t last year but I think he’s improving all round. At the end of the day I think 50/1 for a Welsh Nat 2nd was value.
#1254
March 30th, 2009 08:53
Alistair Down, top bloke! says; Last year he was 12th under Nick Scholfield and, as a rule, that sort of down-the-field run puts you off. But is good reason for thinking Cornish Sett is capable of far better.
Not long before last year’s National, the Paul Nicholls team decided he needed a minor wind operation because his breathing was simply not right when push came to shove. The trouble was that the op meant Cornish Sett’s preparation for the National was a bit rushed and he couldn’t do himself full justice.
This season it has been different story. He really put his head down and battled when winning the valuable Badger Ales at Wincanton in November before going on to run a massive race, sticking on gutsily, when second to Notre Pere in the Welsh National at Christmas.
That run, in what is always a gruelling race over 3m 6f, spoke volumes for his attitude.
And having been one of those who thought he had become a bit of a monkey it convinced me that the breathing procedure had done the job. Nicholls has given him one run since on unsuitable heavy ground in mid-February and you can ignore that splosh about at Haydock.
#1255
March 30th, 2009 08:54
Does anyone fancy KNOWHERE? what sort of weight will it carry? i was watching last years race last night and it was tanking along when it went over-also paddy brennan rides this time.
#1256
March 30th, 2009 09:02
Anyone know when/best source for finding 5 day dec release?
Apart from obvious sources eg Aintree
#1257
March 30th, 2009 09:09
Called Aintree info should be available by 11am
#1258
March 30th, 2009 09:12
That’s dedication Showlad!!
#1259
March 30th, 2009 09:14
What are you waiting on Stayer?
Me: waiting to hear prob HW and HTE NRs and hoping that Parson’s is still in…
#1260
March 30th, 2009 09:23
Well i’ve had most of my bets to be honest so i’m just hoping they all get to the start. I backed Parsons Legacy NRNB yesterday so if he doesn’t turn up i’ll get my money back. The others I just have to sit back, suffer and hope nothing goes wrong in the next 5 days. Am interested in seeing if MALJIMAR gets in the race though. I know he hasn’t won over 3m but has only had two attempts at the distance the first being a fall on chase debut and the other being a 2nd at The Festival.
His pedigree is with stamina though, as he’s related to Philson Run, Cornish Rebel and Nil Desperandum through his sire (Un Desperado) and Lord Atterbury, Lord of Illusion and Earthmover through his dam’s sire.
#1261
March 30th, 2009 09:26
Ye me too on Malji. Got him at long odds when the chance of him getting in seemed to increase. Will get money back if he is out due to missing cut. V impressive at Chelts though.
#1262
March 30th, 2009 09:34
Eddie Fremantle;
1.Rambling Minster
also mentions
Darkness
Kilbeggan Blade
My Will
Black Apalachi
Battlecry
Alistair Down;
1.Cornish Sett
2. War Of Attrition
3.Parsons Legacy
4.Priests Leap
Pegasus;
1. Parsons Legacy
Gary Nutting;
1.State Of Play
2.Irish Invader
3.Snowy Morning
4.Parsons Legacy
anymore?
#1263
March 30th, 2009 09:34
Well I haven’t backed him yet but i’m considering it. I didn’t even consider him before that Cheltenham race but that was a very good run. I do have a slight nagging doubt with regards his jumping as he has unseated twice and fallen once in his 12 chases thus far. That is a concern. But he does look unexposed over 3m+ and his pedigree suggests he could do well in that sphere. He’s got no weight and seems to go on any ground. It’s tempting.
#1264
March 30th, 2009 09:53
“RUBY WALSH on Monday morning confirmed that he will partner My Will in Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on Saturday.
Trainer Paul Nicholls, whose Andy Stewart-owned horse is favourite at a general 8-1, said: “Ruby rang me at 10.15am to confirm he will be riding My Will, so now it’s all systems go for Saturday.”
F**k!!
#1265
March 30th, 2009 09:54
Got saver on My Will, but think weight, distance and too close to good GC run makes him not a major threat.
#1266
March 30th, 2009 09:55
Southern Vic – no Ruby no soft/heavy ground – will now drift out to the land of mid-field fancies I predict..
#1267
March 30th, 2009 09:57
My Will now sure to be favourite on Saturday. Still think he has too much weight – can’t back him.
#1268
March 30th, 2009 09:57
How many is the field cut down too today? And will they be posted up here?
#1269
March 30th, 2009 10:01
Ladbrokes don’t want to lay My Will…already into 7s.
#1270
March 30th, 2009 10:02
SV out to 24s on bf..ta ta..
#1271
March 30th, 2009 10:08
Never mind the Willocks …. Cornish is a genuine 33/1 now. Last box ticked?
#1272
March 30th, 2009 10:17
Hi Sammo,
The full field will be posted as a new thread as soon as I have it – if someone else finds it before me please let me know where it is available
#1273
March 30th, 2009 10:18
Thank God My Will now clear Fav and likely to be on Saturday – all R Walsh money. So much the better for Rambo and Darkness – thank you Ruby.
Why? Well the last time a consecutive Fav or JT Fav won the GN was in 1893 and 1894!!(113 years ago) and before that it was in 1890 and 1891. Being Fav this year is the “Kiss of Death” as I have stated before and Rambo almost got there but not anymore – huraaa – pay day here we come!
Yes due to views on this blog I am going to review Southern Vic once more as my 3rd choice due to the ground conditions. I am happy with my top two – Rambo and the Dark One but would be stupid not to have a portfolio of six on the day (if fact i have more backed very early (I see it as winters savings plan).
#1274
March 30th, 2009 10:22
P.S Darkness now attracting support all across the board as predicted now under 30/1 with all bookies (and meets the price profile for te GN winner). This one will be under 20/1 on the day I am sure.
Parsons Legacy stiill too high in price for me unless he drops well under 30/1 or under (will he run?).
#1275
March 30th, 2009 10:23
@ Admin – are we getting chocolate watch for fun Top 6 Tipsters comp?
Know ur giving prize for other comp, but a ‘lil thing for Top 6 winner would be really appreciated..we’ve all been at it hard for weeks
#1276
March 30th, 2009 10:23
superwinger says:
March 29, 2009 at 11:06 PM
I for one won’t back anything thats not
either – in the form of its life
or – coming back into the form
of its life.
out of form horses don’t win the National do they ?.
For me they have to have recently put up a career best or near best performance.
Isnt this a stat that holds up for recent winners.
I.E they all ran either a lifetime or very close to there lifetime best within the last 2 prep runs prior to the national they won?
#1277
March 30th, 2009 10:25
Very very good Q Brian – anyone have the stats on that?
#1278
March 30th, 2009 10:31
Cheers Admin
#1279
March 30th, 2009 10:31
HTE out to 50-1 on betfair – surely he will be out of the race at today’s 5 day dec stage
#1280
March 30th, 2009 10:33
Sorry Showlad I’ve been told that all comps are to be for fun only at this time.
I’ll be posting details of the comp we want to run once the runners are known later on today and we hope to run that comp annually and keep details of the winners on the site so it will be something that people do want to win.
#1281
March 30th, 2009 10:34
Regarding My Will, I forgot how seasoned a campaigner he was, having run in 27 chases already.
He has won 6 of those 27 chases, but interestingly he has only won once outside of novice company. Since graduating from the novice ranks he has won just once in 17 starts.
Should a horse that doesn’t exactly have the winning habit be 7/1fav for a National where he has to beat 39 others?
#1282
March 30th, 2009 10:36
I know 14/17 winners had an equalling or higher National OR than their last winning OR – indicating they were on the up.
#1283
March 30th, 2009 10:40
Hi Rascal,
I’ve allowed your links to your own site etc as you are such a frequent poster on GNG – I hope you will reciprocate by adding a link for us on your site!
#1284
March 30th, 2009 10:40
In a word Stayer – no.
If we had to rate on class then near top.
But prob 11′ 4″ over 4 and half miles after GC, over GN fences – no ta.
Ooh la la and he’s also French ha ha!
#1285
March 30th, 2009 10:47
indeed stayer and showlad i think though the fact is that some people really honestly believe that ruby walsh could guide a 3 legged asmatic one eyed badger to victory.
#1286
March 30th, 2009 10:49
Using the RPR then the results for the last 6 winners are:
C or D equalled Personnel Best on last run
Silverbirch ran a personnel best on last run
No.6 ran personnel best 3 races prior to national
Hedgehunter ran a personnel best on last run
Amberleigh house ran a personnel best 2 races prior to the national
Monty’s Pass ran a personnel best 4 races prior to the national.
Using just that small section it does appear to me that it is a definite positive but not sure i would use it to rule out any horses.
#1287
March 30th, 2009 10:51
No reason to suggest My Will won’t place- the last two GN’s with such narrow handicaps between top and bottom saw two horses in each of them with 11st or more place; Hedgehunter and Royal Auclair in 05, top 11-12, bottom 10-5; and Snowy Morning and Slim Pickings last year, top 11-12 and bottom 10-6. Can’t see My Will actually winning though.
#1288
March 30th, 2009 10:52
The once a year backers dont really know a lot about horses to be honest tho so they will just look for the one with a jockey they have heard / Fav colour / Lady jockey etc.
So in fairness the bookies are just pricing it up to protect them incase it does happen and they dont have to pay out a fortune to the once a year punters.
#1289
March 30th, 2009 10:53
Brian if you get chance would be great to provide list going even further back.
Does look good for RAMBO based on your recent findings…
What was Darkness last run – anywhere near pb?
Hey – would be great if anyone can list horses at this years GN with a recent pb.
#1290
March 30th, 2009 10:55
Darkness ran a pb according to RPR on last run.
Will try to go further back later today and post up. Just waiting for national decs to be announced at moment so will start after that
#1291
March 30th, 2009 10:57
Good stuff, Brian. So GN winner would need to at least equal all time best current season. Actually, I think someone has said that most recent winners had apart from Papillon. Yes Papillon’s best RPR- 164, was two years before.
#1292
March 30th, 2009 10:58
Gr8 Brian, also be gr8 to compliment your findings if coupled with runners with recent pb.
Thanks in advance
#1293
March 30th, 2009 11:03
Thumbs down for Irish Invader also, although Ruby may be influenced by having other rides for My Wills’ connections. Surely he will start favourite, as so many once a year punters will latch onto the name. I so want the Reveleys to win this race; they deserve it so much. Maljimar is interesting, but he did have a very hard race at Cheltenham.
#1294
March 30th, 2009 11:04
Rambling Minster ran his best RPR in his last run, Darkness equalled his best in his last run, Cornish Sett equalled his best this season, State Of Play is some way short of his best this season, Brooklyn Brownie has his two best ever this season but a little low- 143, ummm ..My Will also equalled his best in the Gold Cup.
#1295
March 30th, 2009 11:04
I am on Darkness at 100 on Betfair but not to much of a stake. I agree that his price will contract and so am contemplating another small each way on him. As I have no access to betting sites at work, can someone please tell me where he is best priced at the moment with a high street bookie. Thanks.
#1296
March 30th, 2009 11:07
28s with SkyBet Whitearab…
#1297
March 30th, 2009 11:08
Aaah Betfair suspended …. 5 day decs shortly (well let’s hope so)…
#1298
March 30th, 2009 11:11
Good luck finding a Skybet shop on the High Street!
But he’s generally a 25/1 chance everywhere.
#1299
March 30th, 2009 11:11
I don’t understand why it always takes so long to put the decs out. What can they possibly be doing?
#1300
March 30th, 2009 11:13
Thanks Showlad and Oedipe – much appreciated guys.
#1301
March 30th, 2009 11:14
Re pb’s this season..Parson’s equalled best RPR at start of this season too…
#1302
March 30th, 2009 11:15
Admin – I will indeed be adding a link to here from my site. That part of the process is being worked on today and the Grand National Guide will top the list. Thank you for allowing my link.
#1303
March 30th, 2009 11:15
Gave u SkyBet Whitearab as thot maybe mate will put on for you, Oedipe…cheeky…
#1304
March 30th, 2009 11:17
RPR Personnel best continued:
Bindaree equalled his PB 4 races prior to national
Red Marauder equalled his SECOND best 2 races prior
Papillon ran a Personnel Best for HURDLES in his last run
Bobbyjo ran a personnel Best for HURDLES in his last run.
(Interestingly Papillon recorded his best topspeed in hurdles in his last prep race and BobbyJo had recorded his best Chase topspeed in his last chase run prior to him winning the national)
So not as conclusive as first appears but it is looking like a great positive for your horse if it has run to a personnel best within the current season.
#1305
March 30th, 2009 11:26
Does anyone know where you can see the racecards of Nationals before 1989? The Racing Post only shows the card back to that year.
#1306
March 30th, 2009 11:27
Hot weld is a non runner
#1307
March 30th, 2009 11:28
where is list Brian?
#1308
March 30th, 2009 11:28
Full story here
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/hot-weld-will-not-run-in-national-says-murphy/174800/top/
#1309
March 30th, 2009 11:28
where is full list Brian?
#1310
March 30th, 2009 11:29
cheers
#1311
March 30th, 2009 11:30
Full list not out yet Showlad
#1312
March 30th, 2009 11:39
The list must be out there somewhere as Betfair have got there list down to 77 runners and its still get lower each time i hit refresh
#1313
March 30th, 2009 11:42
ALL the leading John Smith’s Grand National fancies have been left in the world’s greatest jumps race following a five-day declaration stage that produced just nine new defections.
With Snoopy Loopy and Nozic having already been scratched, last year’s sixth Cloudy Lane will head the weights with 11st 10lb on his back.
Afistfullofdollars,who would have been burdened with 11st 9lb, was one of the nine horses taken out of the race on Monday. The others, in handicap order, were Roll Along, Hobbs Hill, Always Waining, Hot Weld, Conna Castle, Tumbling Dice, Ice Tea and King Harald.
#1314
March 30th, 2009 11:43
Betfair reopened with 74 runners.
#1315
March 30th, 2009 11:46
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cloudy-lane-tops-national-weights-as-nine-defect/174806/
#1316
March 30th, 2009 11:47
link Conduit?
#1317
March 30th, 2009 11:47
Cheers Brian
#1318
March 30th, 2009 11:48
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cloudy-lane-tops-grand-national-weights-as-nine-defect/174806/top/
#1319
March 30th, 2009 11:48
by my reckoning Kelami is the last one in.
#1320
March 30th, 2009 11:49
So how many more we expecting to lose today, sorry for the naivity or is it now just over the course of the week??
#1321
March 30th, 2009 11:49
Thx Conduit too
HTE left in zzzz will Mouse make his mind up…
#1322
March 30th, 2009 11:50
Final dec is 10am Thurs morn Sammo.
There they will give final 40 runners with 2 or 3 as official spares.
#1323
March 30th, 2009 11:50
Baggy, correct Kelami is at no. 40 at the mo.. which is good as all my picks are in the national.. cant see many others in top 40 dropping now.. maybe the odd 2 or 3.
#1324
March 30th, 2009 11:52
Think HTE is a cert to drop out – now out to 80-1 on betfair – someone knows
#1325
March 30th, 2009 11:54
Cheers Showlad appreciated
#1326
March 30th, 2009 11:57
If HTE has drifted so much and is a certainty to come out, I don’t understand why hee wasn’t taken out at this stage?!
#1327
March 30th, 2009 11:58
Where’s KJ at?
He has No. 33 as his magical mystical number for the grand national at at moment that is Southern Vic and if HTE does drop out then it makes Kilbeggan Blade number 33.
The two horses most talked about on here that i haven’t backed.
Please tell me you ain’t getting any vibes for your magical number this year KJ lol
#1328
March 30th, 2009 11:59
Is Parsons Legacy in or out? Will only place a stakes saver bet (as he meets many trends) with with a run gurantee (not run for a very long time well past te 50 day limit, 19/20 trend I believe.
#1329
March 30th, 2009 12:02
Parson’s is IN
#1330
March 30th, 2009 12:02
Systemsman – may be worth your saver bet anyway. get better odds now than on day. on bet365 NRNB and also best odds garenteeed now or SP.
#1331
March 30th, 2009 12:03
Maljimar should get in now…
Could someone post up full amended list – I make Kelami at no.41 (obv have 1 left in too many on my list) Ta much
#1332
March 30th, 2009 12:04
Pasons dropping across boards now, into best of 33s at bookies and 37s on betfair..
#1333
March 30th, 2009 12:05
Sorry PL still 40s at VC (last one)
#1334
March 30th, 2009 12:10
Yep, Kelami scrapes in at the mo on no. 40.#
Maljimar is no 42, so needs two above him to come out. He needs Stan and HTE not to run.
#1335
March 30th, 2009 12:11
If anyone has a VC account then he is doing a “Beat Victor” comp where you have to pick three horses and have a mythical £1 e/w on each. If your return is bigger than his return then you get some free bets and if you are the winner out of everyone you win £1000 of free bets. Worth a go I think.
His three are…
My Will
Big Fella Thanks
Parsons Legacy
In addition, Brooklyn Brownie is now a massive 66/1 with VC. Huge price. You are getting 16.5/1 for the place with those odds! It could easily finish in the first 4.
#1336
March 30th, 2009 12:13
Cheers Stephen. Think I’ll take Victor on. Can’t be difficult.
#1337
March 30th, 2009 12:15
Showlad which order do you have Kelami and zabenz in?
Kelami should be 40 and zabenz 41.
Also have you remebered to take out KJC?
#1338
March 30th, 2009 12:21
Be wary that VC seem to be the only bookie not yet offering NRNB. Not going 5 places either so they can afford to be more ‘generous’.
#1339
March 30th, 2009 12:24
you can still get 40′s on parsons at stan james and no runner no bet and guaranteed best odds plus e/w first 5. just filled my boots.
#1340
March 30th, 2009 12:33
been on VC he is nrnb and doing the refund on a faller in Nat as well !!!
#1341
March 30th, 2009 12:39
My top 6:-
6pts = Rambo
5pts = Kilbeggan Blade
4pts = Himalayan Trail
3pts = State of Play
2pts = Parsons Legacy
1pt = Brooklyn Brownie
New Totals
Rambling Minster 116
Kilbeggan Blade 47
Himalayan Trail 45
Darkness 43
State of Play 36
Parsons Legacy 23
Irish Invader 21
Southern Vic 18
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 17
War of Attrition 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Butlers Cabin 3
Silver Birch 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1342
March 30th, 2009 12:42
Can anyone help me out and give me some strong reasons for ignoring Brooklyn Brownie? Seems to be the dark horse of the race and well worth an each way bet? I’ve just had a few quid e/w so far but am tempted to do more…..
#1343
March 30th, 2009 12:46
All sorted Brian, thanks:
Kelami at no.40
#1344
March 30th, 2009 12:46
My top 6:-
6pts = Rambo
5pts = Himalayan Trail
4pts = Southern Vic
3pts = Parsons Legacy
2pts = Butlers Cabin
1pt = War of Attrition
New Totals
Rambling Minster 122
Himalayan Trail 50
Kilbeggan Blade 47
Darkness 43
State of Play 36
Parsons Legacy 26
Irish Invader 21
Southern Vic 22
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 17
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Butlers Cabin 5
Silver Birch 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1345
March 30th, 2009 12:49
Full list now posted up at Aintree:
http://www.aintree.co.uk/news/grand-national-five-day-confirmations/
#1346
March 30th, 2009 12:50
Stats Man – I’m very keen on Brooklyn Brownie particularly because I got him at 130s and have topped up at lower prices since
But you asked for reasons not to back him? Because he has run a chase of less than 17k and may lack the class to win. Also because his stamina at much over 3m is unproven. I would imagine those are the reasons why people aren’t backing him
#1347
March 30th, 2009 12:59
Himalayan Trail number two on the charts. I can see plenty of attributes, 4m C1 win, jumped fences well in Becher chase, trainer James Mangan plotted Monty’s victory but … apart from the long distance win, jumping well at Aintree and his trainer…. what’s Himalayan Trail ever done for us!!!
His last winning mark was 124, he’s raced in three chases since with a higher OR and not got within 50 lengths of the winner. He must be a cert!
#1348
March 30th, 2009 13:00
Here’s how I make the new list of entries with weights adjusted.
1 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-10 Donald McCain Jnr
2 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-09 Mouse Morris IRE
3 CHELSEA HARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-08 Tom Mullins IRE
4 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-08 Willie Mullins IRE
5 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies
6 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-06 Pipe
7 OLLIE MAGERN 11-11-06 Nigel Twiston-Davies
8 STAN (NZ) 10-11-06 VenetiaWilliams
9 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-05 Dessie Hughes IRE
10 HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-05 Mouse Morris IRE
11 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-05 Tom O’Leary IRE
12 MY WILL (FR) 9-11-04 Paul Nicholls
13 EUROTREK (IRE) 13-11-03 Paul Nicholls
14 STATE OF PLAY 9-11-02 Evan Williams
15 BIG FELLA THANKS 7-11-01 Nicholls
16 MON MOME (FR) 9-11-00 Venetia Williams
17 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-11-00 Gordon Elliott IRE
18 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-13 Jonjo O’Neill
19 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-13 Charlie Swan IRE
20 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-12 Philip Hobbs
21 REVEILLEZ 10-10-12 Jonjo O’Neill
22 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-11 Nigel Twiston-Davies
23 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-11 Nicky Henderson
24 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-11 Enda Bolger IRE
25 BATTLECRY 8-10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies
26 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-10 Paul Nicholls
27 FLEET STREET 10-10-10 Nicky Henderson
28 MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-10 Francois Cottin FR
29 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-09 Jonjo O’Neill
30 DARKNESS 10-10-09 Charles Egerton
31 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-09 Willie Mullins IRE
32 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-09 Keith Reveley
33 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-09 Ted Walsh IRE
34 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-07 Tom George
35 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-06 Malcolm Jefferson
36 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-06 Jimmy Mangan IRE
37 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-05 David Pipe
38 CERIUM (FR) 8-10-05 Paul Murphy
39 IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-10-05 Donald McCain Jnr
40 KELAMI (FR) 11-10-05 Lisa Williamson
41 ZABENZ (NZ) 12-10-05 Philip Hobbs
42 MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-10-04 Nick Williams
43 COMPANERO (IRE) 9-10-03 Johnson Howard Johnson
44 IRON MAN (FR) 8-10-03 Peter Bowen
45 MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-10-03 Noel Meade IRE
46 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-10-03 Bob Buckler
47 POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-10-03 Willie Mullins IRE
48 BAGAN (FR) 10-10-02 Martin Todhunter
49 BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-10-02 Nigel Twiston-Davies
50 BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-10-02 Andrew Turnell
51 DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-10-02 Paul Nolan IRE
52 FLINTOFF (USA) 8-10-02 Venetia Williams
53 PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-10-02 Tony MartinIRE
54 IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-10-02 Roy Wilson IRE
55 NADOVER (FR) 8-10-02 Charlie Mann
56 PAK JACK (FR) 9-10-02 Richard Phillips
57 SEYMOUR WELD 9-10-02 Charles Pogson
58 NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-10-00 Ferdy Murphy
59 TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-10-00 Philip Hobbs
60 OODACHEE 10-9-12 Charlie Swan IRE
61 KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-11 Tom Taaffe IRE
62 DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-10 Tony Martin IRE
63 LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-10 David Pipe
64 OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-10 Philip Hobbs
65 PUNTAL 13-9-10 David Pipe
65 WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-10 Carl Llewellyn
66 ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-08 VenetiaWilliams
67 MILAN DEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-08 David Pipe
68 SANDHURST(IRE) 9-9-05 Edgar Byrne IRE
69 LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-9-05 Colin Tizzard
70 LYSANDER (GER) 10-9-05 Ian Williams
71 MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-9-05 Alan Brown
72 PASS ME BY 10-9-02 Suzy Smith
73 MONT MISERE (FR) 13-9-01 Paul Murphy
#1349
March 30th, 2009 13:03
Brooklyn Brownie has won at 25f, the furthest he has ever raced which is a big plus.
#1350
March 30th, 2009 13:05
“Stats Man says:
March 30, 2009 at 12:42 PM
Can anyone help me out and give me some strong reasons for ignoring Brooklyn Brownie? Seems to be the dark horse of the race and well worth an each way bet? I’ve just had a few quid e/w so far but am tempted to do more…..”
I think he is a cracking each way bet too. Especially now he is 66/1 with VC. He seems to be just shy of one or two trends by a whisker and has of course finished a staying on 2nd over the National fences this year.
Age 9
Won a Chase over 3m
Run in 10+ Chases
Won a Class 2+ Chase
Won a race worth £16,262 (Fails on the £17k trend, just)
Weight will be 10-6
Finished 2nd in a C1 Chase
Finished top 3 in any of last three starts
Finished 2nd over National fences
Topspeed of 139
RPR of 143 (Fails on 144+, just)
Four runs between Aug and now
Ran within 50 days of National
70% top 4 strike rate in Chases
So I think considering all those factors you could do worse than have some e/w money at 16.5/1 the place.
#1351
March 30th, 2009 13:05
Of those in the top 40 I expect STAN and REVEILLEZ to withdraw on Thursday, possibly less likely are HEAR THE ECHO and CANT’T BUY TIME and less likely still CHELSEA HARBOUR, SNOWY MORNING, KNOWHERE, OLLIE MAGERN and EUROTREK so everyone down as far as BEAT THE BOYS stands a chance and I’d be very excited if NICHE MARKET got in.
#1352
March 30th, 2009 13:06
I cant see Kelami running as he was out last weekend
#1353
March 30th, 2009 13:07
And just as I write that VC shorten him in to 40/1 again, ha ha!
Still think 10/1 a place is value too though
#1354
March 30th, 2009 13:09
Brooklyn Brownie is also by Presenting which is fine but even more encouraging is that his dam’s sire is Lafontaine. Lafontaine sired Papillion and other notable stayers including Ever Blessed and Spotthedifference.
#1355
March 30th, 2009 13:11
My top 6:-
6pts = Rambling Minster
5pts = State of Play
4pts = Parsons Legacy
3pts = Darkness
2pts = Himalayan Trail
1pt = Brooklyn Brownie
New Totals
Rambling Minster 128
Himalayan Trail 52
Kilbeggan Blade 47
Darkness 46
State of Play 41
Parsons Legacy 30
Irish Invader 21
Southern Vic 22
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 18
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 5
Comply or Die 5
Butlers Cabin 5
Silver Birch 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1356
March 30th, 2009 13:14
Yep, as I say I’m keen on the Brownie but just trying to play Devil’s Advocate. Having watched his Aintree race again, I wasn’t overly impressed with his jumping over the fences but, to be fair, he didn’t fall so this is just nit picking!!
#1357
March 30th, 2009 13:18
Any thoughts on why they would withdraw Reveillez? Keeping him for Sandown perhaps?
Hope they don’t as I have a decent e/way bet on him!
#1358
March 30th, 2009 13:19
I TELL YOU ONE TO WATCH FOR 47 IN LIST POMME TIEPY VERY WELL THOUGHT OF BY MR MULLINS BUT NOBODY EVER THOUGHT HE WOULD GET IN.PROBUALY WONT BUT KEEP EYE ON HIM.
#1359
March 30th, 2009 13:22
Minty he is a 6 year old. I wouldn’t even put my mother in laws money on a 6 year old
#1360
March 30th, 2009 13:25
Pomme Tiepy is also a ‘she’ not a ‘he’.
#1361
March 30th, 2009 13:25
BRIAN YOU HAVE JUST BEAT ME TO IT.SORRY GUYS WOULD NOT GET MY CASH EITHER ON THAT BASIS.
#1362
March 30th, 2009 13:29
Right ive just studied the form-im normally pretty good at getting the winner of this -i have narrowed it down to 1-KILLBEGGAN BLADE will hose up-
correct weight
correct ground
correct jockey (won it before)
trainer in form
ran over hurdles this year.
GET ON !!!
#1363
March 30th, 2009 13:29
AND RACES UP WITH THE PACE!!
#1364
March 30th, 2009 13:32
The Stayer says:
March 30, 2009 at 1:25 PM
Pomme Tiepy is also a ’she’ not a ‘he’.
Just one more reason not to be interested then
#1365
March 30th, 2009 13:34
rockpr says:
March 30, 2009 at 1:29 PM
Right ive just studied the form-im normally pretty good at getting the winner of this -i have narrowed it down to 1-KILLBEGGAN BLADE will hose up-
correct weight
correct ground
correct jockey (won it before)
trainer in form
ran over hurdles this year.
GET ON !!!
CORRECT GROUND???? Where did you ge that nugget of a gem from.
Also is there such a thing as a correct jockey?
#1366
March 30th, 2009 13:34
“Right ive just studied the form-im normally pretty good at getting the winner of this -i have narrowed it down to 1-KILLBEGGAN BLADE will hose up”
“correct ground”
Correct ground? It’s likely to be genuinely good ground on Saturday. 7 of his 8 wins have come on good/soft or worse. His one win on good ground was a weak novice hurdle when he scraped home by 1l at odds-on.
#1367
March 30th, 2009 13:38
I’ll tell you summit with all the recent posts on here i think i’ll be selling my tickets to go and see Al Murray and just carry on reading this instead.
This is Comedy Gold.
#1368
March 30th, 2009 13:47
NO NEED TO GET ALL SHIRTY NOW IS THERE!!!
ILL CHANGE MY CORRECT GROUND TO-DOESNT MIND THE GROUND-NOT CHANGING THE JOCKEY THO HE IS GOOD AT THESE FENCES!!
SO BRIAN AND STAYER WHAT ARE YOUR NAPS AND PLEASE GIVE ME ONE SELECTIONS NOT IVE BACKED THE FOLLOWING 5!!
#1369
March 30th, 2009 13:59
KILBEGGAN BLADE is also my tip for the National (alongside RAMBLING MINSTER) but there are negatives. He does make mistakes when jumping and wouldn’t want the ground too fast. His form in big fields is not too hot either but I really feel KILBEGGAN is arriving right for this one and, along with RAMBLING MINSTER, has a great chance. Hope it rains though!
#1370
March 30th, 2009 14:14
The following quote is taken from BBC sport
As expected, Roll Along, King Johns Castle and Character Building were among the absentees and Ladbrokes have made My Will their 7-1 favourite.
Spokesman David Williams said: “As soon as Ruby made his mind up we knew we’d have to shorten the odds. Precisely how much faith the public now put in the King of Cheltenham remains to be seen.
“We’re now waiting to hear confirmation of Tony McCoy’s plans for the National. The same thing will happen to the odds of his mount as soon as the news breaks.”
It makes me wonder why did L’ami’s odds shorten so much if they are still waiting for AP’s ride to be confirmed.
ROCKPR I didnt say that the jockey was good or bad. I asked is there such a good thing as the CORRECT JOCKEY!! and the fact that you qualify the correct jockey to be the one that has won it before then quite a few will qualify and ruby must be the corrector jockey as he has won it twice before!!!
So like i said is there such a thing as a correct jockey as if there is then he isn’t riding KB he is on My Will.
My tip is Rambling minster and if you look through the posts you will see everyones tip for the race. it will be the one that people have given 6 points to in the top 6 tipping table (thought that would be obvious though)
For the record i think KB could be there abouts it just isn’t the horse for me and i wish you all the best for saturday.
#1371
March 30th, 2009 14:23
ohh!!! Brian you beat me too it!
worried about so many, I am not on some of which I championed early on,. L’Ami, My Will, but I have my reasons for choosing others, I can’t back more as I can’t seperate them, trying to hold out til the day see the weather and the horses themselves.
no.33- Southern Vic nnnnnnnnnnnoooooooooo
but could easily be The Killy plough!! (even HT I think, noooooooooooo)
like you I am not on either, they’ve been on my mind continually, esp SV after recent improvement and he has a topical name.. American president southern victory! tenuously?! clutchin at straws ey.
I think KB has less chance, many negs, but came up when my radar still worked last year, so I am worried and yes more worrying is the feeling my powers have left me
Tell me guys, if weather is fair til friday, then it rains alot and all night, what going would you expect?
#1372
March 30th, 2009 14:24
good luck to you brian i also think RM has a great chance -worries me he doesnt race up with the pace though
what are your thoughts re knowhere? i watched last years race last night and he was running a cracker with 11.9 last year-this time has paddy brennan
#1373
March 30th, 2009 14:27
ok for what its worth
1-Killbeggan Blade
2-Rambling minster
3-Butlers cabin
4-Knowhere
5-My Will
6-State of play
apologies for not reading the whole blog!!
#1374
March 30th, 2009 14:32
KJ You beat me on the weather question.
When i looked at weather forecast last night it said Fine all week, moderate rain starting at 10:00 am on saturday and stopping at 14:00 so four hours of rain at moderate level which is about 3mm and hour on the forecast site i looked at. What are the expectations of the going.
ROCKPR: Knowhere will have 11:07 to carry round therefore too much weight in my opinion.
#1375
March 30th, 2009 14:44
some of the longest surviving stats;
62/62- age 8-12
48/48- since last race, 10-84 days
41/41- top 4 in a chase this season*
(with more chasers running in hurdles now a top 3 in hurdle/chase would be 41/41)
40/40- ran in at least 9 chases*
37/37- win at 24f,hurdle/chase
30/30- weight 11-5 or less
(only Rummy’s carried more since the 1950′s)
27/27- win in last ten chases
(American Ben Nevis was last not to, he came over to Europe for two years to try and win GN, 39/39 not including him)
26/26- 2-8 prep runs
23/23- top 3 in a C1 chase(vast majority seem to have won C1)
*probably longer
#1376
March 30th, 2009 14:55
I think Knowhere is a but unlucky with the weights. Went really well last year.
Sam Waley Cohen, a good judge of these Aintree fences, rides Ollie Magern. I think Ollie, former Hennessey 2nd remember, will love it around Aintree. I’ve seen his last few starts and the old boy seems to want a longer distance these days. Still scored a good 158 RPR in Racing Post and wasn’t far off his all time best earlier in the season. Connections were quite bullish about his chances last year but he went lame. I wouldn’t be suprised to see him in the first six.
#1377
March 30th, 2009 14:58
I was guessing the weather! which is as good a job as the weathermen do!! if it just rains in the morning that will make it slippy, not sure what the going will be, but in my dream the other day the race was muddy mayhem! and all the horses I’m not on were up there,… thought it was an anxiety dream, we will see.
who is at no22 and 23? or 11 for that matter!
as I’m on the funny numbers thing,
technically Rambo is 10 not 11, born in may. which statistically one can say is better! but the only funny feeling I’ve had this year is that the horse would be 11. The other lucky thing thats been about is same starting letters and I’ve been wondering for some time that I should back Irish Invader… II…11..similar ey
didn’t post this b4 as I think this is a bit ‘cuckoo’ myself, people don’t like it, but I do win repeatedly… until I don’t ha, ha! not trying to brag but I’ve won every time since Papillion except the year that wasn’t, Red Marauder,thats 8/9, just restating this to show my extra methods aren’t totally wack!
please don’t build me a bonfire!!!
Anyway, back to II,.interest has grown in him which gives me more confidence, but I went and backed the other double same letter horse Brooklyn Brownie, ha, haaa!!!
#1378
March 30th, 2009 15:00
I think that the ground will be good to soft at worst but probably will be on the soft side of good – when like this, the clerk usually describes it as “perfect racing ground”
#1379
March 30th, 2009 15:00
KJ, what about Cornish and his 10.10-10?
#1380
March 30th, 2009 15:05
Crips..even when I’m at work…’Down shep’…
OK guees I’ll update table for you rockpr..
Rambling Minster 133
Kilbeggan Blade 53
Himalayan Trail 52
Darkness 46
State of Play 42
Parsons Legacy 30
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 21
Brooklyn Brownie 18
Cornish Sett 17
Butlers Cabin 9
War of Attrition 8
My Will 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1381
March 30th, 2009 15:08
I have added rockprs scores to the top6 list,
and hope to get ontop of my top 6 today as its closing today right? nice Rambo is on 133 and SV is on 22! lucky lucky can I resist SV now.
Oh yes good numbers for Cornish too Crispy
Rambling Minster 133
Himalayan Trail 52
Kilbeggan Blade 53
Darkness 46
State of Play 42
Parsons Legacy 30
Irish Invader 21
Southern Vic 22
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 18
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
My Will 7
Comply or Die 5
Butlers Cabin 9
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1382
March 30th, 2009 15:09
hey showlad was trying to save you the bother,
am I right, is the deadline tonight?
#1383
March 30th, 2009 15:13
Anyone else getting vibes about anything, lucky numbers, colours etc.
#1384
March 30th, 2009 15:16
Nope open now ’til Thursday midnight, will post up my comments late Thursday night
Posted here again as it’s in scores order.
Rambling Minster 133
Kilbeggan Blade 53
Himalayan Trail 52
Darkness 46
State of Play 42
Parsons Legacy 30
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 21
Brooklyn Brownie 18
Cornish Sett 17
Butlers Cabin 9
War of Attrition 8
My Will 7
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1385
March 30th, 2009 15:17
I have to say WELL DONE ALL I think the top 6 is ABSOLUTELY SPOT ON – winner will be in there
#1386
March 30th, 2009 15:24
“When i looked at weather forecast last night it said Fine all week, moderate rain starting at 10:00 am on saturday and stopping at 14:00 so four hours of rain at moderate level which is about 3mm and hour on the forecast site i looked at. What are the expectations of the going.”
Brian,
I wouldn’t take this forecast too literally. It’s difficult to accurately predict exactly when rainfall will occur within a 24hr period, yet alone in 5 days time.
#1387
March 30th, 2009 15:27
I agree Showlad. The winner is in there. He’s called Rambling Minster lol. Can’t see KB or HT winning it myself and SOP’s doubtful.
Must say the blogs going a bit crazy of late. We’ve gone from reasoned debate and thought, to colours, names and “feelings”. We’re turning into the average punter lol.
Ells
1
#1388
March 30th, 2009 15:28
Doubtful to win or doubtful runner lol?
#1389
March 30th, 2009 15:30
crisp 73 says:
March 30, 2009 at 2:44 PM
some of the longest surviving stats;
62/62- age 8-12
48/48- since last race, 10-84 days
41/41- top 4 in a chase this season*
(with more chasers running in hurdles now a top 3 in hurdle/chase would be 41/41)
40/40- ran in at least 9 chases*
37/37- win at 24f,hurdle/chase
30/30- weight 11-5 or less
(only Rummy’s carried more since the 1950’s)
27/27- win in last ten chases
(American Ben Nevis was last not to, he came over to Europe for two years to try and win GN, 39/39 not including him)
26/26- 2-8 prep runs
23/23- top 3 in a C1 chase(vast majority seem to have won C1)
I work out that the following horses meet the above stats;
Mon Mome
Fundamentalist
L’Ami
Cornish Sett
Darkness
Irish Invader
Rambling Minster
Southern Vic
Brooklyn Brownie
I am at work so did this very quickly but think I am right – if I ma not then apologies!
#1390
March 30th, 2009 15:32
Think ‘days since last run’ may be the stat (if any) to go this year.
Superb horses best when fresh are SOP and PL – 2 of the biggest threats in my book to the Rambling one.
#1391
March 30th, 2009 15:33
Lough re SOP: Doubtful to win or doubtful runner lol?
#1392
March 30th, 2009 15:38
Hi Crisp,I love your stat that for the last 41yrs the winner has had a top 4 finish in a chase this season.So thats made my mind up im laying My Will and Butlers Cabin til the cows come home and even if RAMBO doesn’t win i will have made some easy money.cheers wacky
#1393
March 30th, 2009 15:55
Guys, a Winslet moment, no worries. Enjoying this immensely.
Wacky,it’s good to hear from you. You laying boys, urrgh, you’ll make more than me even if I win! I suppose you’re still not interested in the Cornish Pastie?
Dan that’s about what I make it. I like the ‘winner profile’ so I’m reasonably confident about Cornish, Welsh Nat 2nd, and Rambling, 3 chase wins 24f or more including 1 at 28f or more. I’ve had a small win bet on Darkness though at 40/1 just in case.
Lough,feelings, colours.. it’s burn out. I’ve just put nine long standing trends on the table! Do you know how many man hours that took!! Defintely broken the 48 week rule.. what’s that number in Brussels ….
#1394
March 30th, 2009 15:56
i been reading through all your blogs for last few days, fascinating taking on board all your informed and intelligent comments !! need some advice picked 3 horses for national rambo £10 at 20/1 KB £5 at 33 and parsons legacy £5 at 40/1 cant see any more that take my fancy ,want to put another £20 on one of them which shall i choose ?? or is there a dark horse ??
#1395
March 30th, 2009 16:01
See .. I even missed out ‘hour’ after 48
#1396
March 30th, 2009 16:01
First time poster but have been reading this blog avidly now for weeks – some top notch analysis along the way though i think we’re all starting to get a bit twitchy in anticipation for Saturday. The more and more you pour over the stats the more confused you become. The one consistency seems to have been RM all the way…Anyhow my 2 question are these.
1) For weeks now i’ve been backing and laying horses on betfair. Dos anyone know when the cut off point is when they reform the market and you can’t lay something on the strength of already having backed it at bigger odds. Hope that makes sense.
2) Anyone any info regarding Reveillez? Is he a doubtful runner? Whilst i can’t see him winning he’s a huge price at 350/1 on betfair if he retains any of his old ability. Two years ago he finished 6 lengths ahead of My Will in the Whitbread at Sandown over 3m5f and he’s still only 10. You’re taking a leap of faith backing him but i presumed the huge price was as a result of doubtful participation.
Thanks in advance.
#1397
March 30th, 2009 16:09
Well with all the nerves took that saver on Parsons Legacy at 33/1 with NRMB gurantee. I really dont think he will win with so long to his last race but he is in my pre-christmas GN winners profile so I am taking no chances.
Other than 1 and 2 Rambo and the Dark One I am somewhat confused as to who is third and fourth best with the ground going against SV and his price slipping. Maybe this is a good omen as perhaps we only need two!!!
I still feel that both KB and HT have so many negatives that I cant see them winning (but both have the pre-christmas GN winners profile)- backed them both very early so not worried.
I hope that Rambo wins for all us trends fans – he so fits the winners profile like COD last year and Darkness is only just outside an excellent profile (a 27f win rather than 28f, such a small difference).
I shall be screaming at the TV “Come on Rambo” for the whole race! – the whole family will be there doing the same so if we all join in who knows it may just do the trick. You can tell I getting nervous cant you?
#1398
March 30th, 2009 16:18
Does anyone on here know the last time the race was won in consecutive years by horses who won last time out. There have only been 4 last time out winners since 1990 I think. I normally rule them out as being bad value ( I know I’ve lost out in 2 of the last 3 !)
#1399
March 30th, 2009 16:19
so WILL we be singing ‘Ruby, Ruby, Ruby Ruby!’ well course we won’t and its a horse I’ve followed, so will have mixed feelings if he does win or even place, but like Pablo said I think, my Will such a nearly horse that makes you think next time could be his,. safe jumper and Will get round. But for me its just a case of Willing Rambo to ‘ramble on…sing my song…on my way!’
Love yer hard stats Crisp and the fact that there are three double letter names in the shortlist that meet these! grrr Mon Mome took me ages to rule out in favour of his similar GN friend L’Ami, then I didn’t back either!
this year is a nightmare, blanket finish anyone!?
I wasn’t disappointed with MMs last run with 11-12 at all, thought he was staying on well under that weight near the end, more conviction to him than L’Ami too.
While I remember some people have been mentioning Reveillez, after his cheltenham race you could see him stumbling around with jelly legs, behind McCoy being interviewed, I took this as not good 4m4 prospect, but I remember running 1500m for my school team doing quite well (3rd) and having jelly legs but I could run further without that effect
#1400
March 30th, 2009 16:40
Crisp thansk for the surviving stats -excellent work which will go into my GN “Black Book” for reference.
23/23- top 3 in a C1 chase(vast majority seem to have won C1)
40/40- ran in at least 9 chases
Takes out both KB (TS 124 [good ground on Saturday where speed will matter], not placed or won class1) and HT (only 8 Chase runs, PU twice this season and no 3rd this season!!)- see why i have a problem in finding a good third and fourth for the short list? Now come on lads/ladies if you think these two can win start to tell me and others why they can defy these clear trends!! – I notice a big silence on this issue out there.
Cornish Sett looks a better bet than KB and HT for the short list other than his 12th place in the GN last year. Best RPR 150 and TS 141 when winning Class 1 this season, 2nd in Welsh National. Would upset the trends far less than KB or HT (placed 12th in last years GN – I would be happy to settle for this trends change – which would say include any runner who finished in the first 13 (added extra position to play safe)in the GN and finished with the pace [ie. did not walk over the line 100L behind].
If CS had not been placed last year he would be in the top 3 for our pole would he not?
#1401
March 30th, 2009 16:43
oh Cornish is finally on the move blues across the board!!! not sure in the carnage and blanket finish I am imagining he can get there.
Just umming and erring over Irish Invader seems to have been on the move odds wise recently too. Don’t know why I choose BB over II!??! zoning out to zone in hasn’t worked, going to have to look at the figures and ask you my friends why/why not Irish I?
I know its final build up jitters, but have to look again and gotta post my top6!
#1402
March 30th, 2009 16:44
Re Showlad – I meant a doubtful winner, not doubtful runner.
RE Crisp – well its nice to see some people are keeping their heads. Nice to see the biggest trends again and would say that the winner IS in Dans list based on your post. 5 of my 6 are in that 9 with only Parsons missing, and as far as I know the only trend he fails on is the ‘days since last run’ one, which seeing as he likes to run fresh shouldn’t 100% count him out. Mon Mome and Fundementalist massive odds so unlikely winners. Which means if the key stats hold up, the only 2 I need to be afraid of are SV and Irish Invader. Rubys chosen against SV and he won’t get his ground so not sure he can do it which leaves Irish Invader – the unknown entity. Cannot bring myself to even have a saver on a horse that has never won a chase over 24f. Plus hes only 8 which makes me think it might me too much for him so early on, he’s not used to these kinda distances at all. Which means I surely have the winner
No point in even watching 
lol. I wish..
RE Systems. I swear when I was making a huge case for Darkness and listed the trends he met and didn’t meet it was you who commented. I said that he pretty much met every stat apart from Top 5 Hennessy 1 where I said he was only a furlong away. And I believe your comment was something along the lines of.. “It doesnt matter whether he nearly does or not, the point is he fails on it” How the times change ay..
Feeling a lot better today now that the Darkness affair has finished. Tempted to lay out some of my bets now as they are all shortening. L’ami, SOP, Darknes and Cornish all big shorteners in past few days. Im confident this year tho so think Ill leave em.
Ells
1
#1403
March 30th, 2009 16:45
Amendment:
Re Cornish Sett. If he won the new trends would read:
Do no exclude any runner who finished in the first 13 (added extra position to play safe)in last years GN and finished with the pace [ie. did not walk over the line 100L behind] provide thet meet the other key trends.
#1404
March 30th, 2009 16:48
Have you been on the beer today KJ?
#1405
March 30th, 2009 16:53
Lough ‘ So Tough’ Derg says:
Plase dont make it up about Darkness – I along with about one other person have pushed this horse since before Christmas 2008 when no one wanted to know. Just check out my pre-christmas GN winner profile dated 17th December when he was im my short list of 11 aainst the field (then about 140 strong!!). You are being most unkind.
Give us a brake!!
#1406
March 30th, 2009 16:58
Totally agree systems, although I think had L’ami not placed 2 years ago he would possibly be our number 1, and for sure our number 2. He is the ultimate trends fitter. Fits everything I believe. Even beats Rambo on the ’2 wins in a row’ or ‘won in decent races before last’ trends. Its the fact that they did both finish unplaced in previous Nationals that worries me and everyone else. There has to be a serious turn-around for a horse to be so far behind and then make it another year.
But I dont think this stat can be applied whole-heartedly. Horses do come back after finishing and win. I would say the other trends are more important than this one. Surely it is pheasable that a horse can just decide they don’t wanna run on the day, they get to a point and decide they can’t be bothered anymore.
In both their cases they have excuses.
L’ami had an extremely tough season incuding running in the GC at Cheltenham that year, then at only 8 was asked to carry 11-8 over 4.5 miles. He was going well until being hampered twice and after that hit a couple. Surely its pheasable that after such a tough season, with such a big weight and then losing rhythm after being hampered and hittin a couple as a consequence that he just thought “you know what, I dont wanna do this anymore” and stopped respondin. Not definite, but pheaseable. Plus he has been running at 4m all season.
With Cornish Sett he just couldn’t keep up with the pace last season. Was always behind. Reported that he was struggling with his breathing (even after the op) though and now the breathing operation has kicked in he has been on top form. Was staying on very strongly in Welsh National so can hardly be said he doesn’t stay. Just whether he has the speed to stay with em.
Not saying either will win, but I agree these horses are far better options as they break a trend that in my eyes, is less respected than some of the key trends that horses like BC, KB or HT would break if they won.
Ells
1
#1407
March 30th, 2009 17:00
I do aplogise if I have the wrong man systems. I too have fancied Darkness for a long time and went in heavy after his last win only to see the price remain stagnent for ages. I can only say sorry if it was somebody else.
Ells
1
#1408
March 30th, 2009 17:00
Come on CS!!! Backed it for perhaps the wrong reasons but like that it meets the surviving trends and nobody will be cheering it more at the course than me. Oh, and Rambo of course!!!
Happy with my portfolio now, will have one or two small cash bets on the day but probably just topping up on what I already have. Oh and number 24 will be one if we’re going for hunches, anyone guess what that is likely to be please??
#1409
March 30th, 2009 17:05
Golden Flight is number 24 at the moment I think – but it could be Cornish Sett come the day
#1410
March 30th, 2009 17:06
Hate to say it systems but I knew I was right.
Systemsman says:
March 1, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Re: Drakness:
“Lough ’so tough’ Derg
Tope 5 in Hennessy/top 3 in a National/Top 2 in race over GN fences/won 2×24f 1×28f”
Reply
No (you can be as close as you like but he FAILS to met the trend)
And i undertand this trend goes back a long way – time for Stephen to speak up on this.
I can tell you that Darkness does fit the Pre-chritmas winners profile and would fit my “Secret Black Book” profile but only if his price is 33/1 on the day (will it be?).
I have an early part bet on Darkness and may have a bit more only if it is 33/1 or lower on the day as an insurance policy (this is in the light on the many trends he does meet). I honestly think he will fall if he runs but I hope I am wrong.
Ells
1
#1411
March 30th, 2009 17:07
The biggest trend breaker would be My Will surely… French, favourite (based on no consecutive faves for 120 years almost) and weight.
#1412
March 30th, 2009 17:13
There’s much worse than My Will. The favourite issue has no basis whatsoever other than coincidence. Big Fella Thanks would be pretty awful to be honest. I for one, want to see the French bred trend broken anyways. I don’t think it is a legitimate trend anymore and therefore hope it is broken so we can stop the petty arguments over its implementation.
Ells
1
#1413
March 30th, 2009 17:22
War Of Attrition ruled out of Grand National
WAR OF ATTRITION will miss Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National after trainer Mouse Morris described himself “not entirely happy ” with the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
The star Irish chaser had been the subject of a major gamble for the Aintree highlight, but Morris, owner Michael O’Ryan and jockey Davy Russell will now be represented by Hear The Echo.
Morris said: “We weren’t 100 per cent happy with War Of Attrition this morning and we’ve decided against sending him to Aintree. Hear The Echo is 110 per cent and he will be our runner in the National.”
War Of Attrition, who missed the Cheltenham Gold Cup this month due to being slightly jarred, is likely to head for the Guinness Gold Cup at the Punchestown festival.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/war-of-attrition-ruled-out-of-grand-national/174926/
Bookies must be delighted after that plunge last week. Good news for Maljimar supporters though.
#1414
March 30th, 2009 17:36
Just want to clear something up for anyone new to this blog:
In the National the term PLACED means finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th
L’Ami has NEVER placed in the National
He COMPLETED the 2007 National finishing 10th (beaten 97L)
Last year, apart from the winner Comply Or Die:
Snowy Morning placed in 3rd (beaten 5 1/2L)
Cloudy Lane completed in 6th (beaten 32 1/2L)
Chelsea Harbour completed in 9th
Mon Mome completed in 10th
Cornish Sett completed in 12th
Idle Talk was 14th of the 15 to complete the race
Sorry to be pernickity but people might misread the term ‘placed’
#1415
March 30th, 2009 17:37
Good point Pablo
#1416
March 30th, 2009 17:41
Yipee. Looks like Echo’s going to make it after all.
#1417
March 30th, 2009 17:42
Lough ‘ So Tough’ Derg says:
“Hate to say it systems but I knew I was right.”
You are taking things out of context as others have done (makes me wonder why I share my info with people snipping out there).
When producing a short list it is a “Work in Progress” and has to be ameneded and changed as results adn information occcurs – this is still happening this week as you can see from my uncertaintly about SV and the ground (you could easily pull me up with a quote I may have made about SV being the best 3rd choice).
Darknesw as spoted by me on Dec 17th and posted for all to see. I have also posted to the effect that I was giving him the “benefit of the doubt” being only 1F of short of Stephens GN winners profle (I cant be bothered to dig it out but it is on record, I think its in the post where I did for the “black book” star ratings).
You will note that I thought it important for Darkness to be under 33/1 – which he now is. His main weekness is his jumping as many have commentated on and if he fails it will be due to a fall. Rambo (and earlier with BC) have always been my NO 1 and Darkness has grown – “evolved” into my N0 2 – its what looking at trends and stats is all about – being willing to amend and modify opinions based on new information – its why I had to accept BC could not win (but you could if you like drag up a very old quote out of context to show I thought he could win).
No Drakness has always been in my short list but not my NO 1 and I shared my concerns about his week point with all (even Rambo has a 40% for place which is 2% less than the norm).
So other than point scoring I see nothing valed in your comments.
#1418
March 30th, 2009 17:44
Yer sorry
Should have read: “although I think had L’ami not finished unplaced 2 years ago”.
Point well made. Crazy crazy news about WOA and I thought I was unlucky with CB. Must feel sick if you had backed him last few days so close to the race only to be told that he wasn’t running. 14 and 12/1 around the show recently. Terrible news for punters. Got to be honest I think Mouse has been well outta order ever since weights day. Certainly not “punter friendly trainer”. Moans and moans about HTE’s weight. But then leaves him in forfeit stage after forfeit stage. Then he bigs up WOA’s chances on the run up. Tells punters that HTE is an unlikely runner and WOA is the preference. Then at last minute just decides he’s actually not happy with WOA so HTW can go instead. Least Quinn had a legitimate excuse for taking CB out, and Mcmanus and Bolger took GC out a long time before.
Ells
1
#1419
March 30th, 2009 17:48
Couldn’t agree more about Mouse the past few days. Reminscent of Bolger with New Approach for the Derby last season except messing about with punters with 2 horses. While I don’t generally like it when punters moan about being misled by trainers, think WoA fans and those who’ve avoided backing HTE because of his comments have real cause for complaint here.
But, then, I’ve backed Maljimar so looking better for me!
#1420
March 30th, 2009 17:49
Let’s keep it all positive guys
Let our debates be too build us all up and onto the winner – not to pull us down.
#1421
March 30th, 2009 17:56
WELL SAID SYSTEMS.I FOR ONE REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR INPUT AND AM ALOT MORE CLUED UP THAN WHAT I WAS BEFORE LAST YEAR AND YES IT WAS DUE TO THE INVALUBLE IMFO. OFF THIS SITE OFF MAINLY YOU AND A FEW MORE THAT WON ME ALOT OF MONEY.PLEASE TAKE IT IN YOUR STRIDE THERE ARE AND ALWAYS HAVE BEEN A FEW AND IT IS A FEW THAT TRY AND PICK FAULT AND ARGUEMENTS.MY LIST HAS CHANGED ALOT AS I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT WOULD BE OBVIOUS AS WE GET NEARER AND MORE DETAILS TO WORK WITH.BUTLERS WAS HIGH ON MY LIST BUT NOW NOT IN TOP 6.KEEP IT UP SYSTEMS AND THANKS FOR YOUR HELP THIS YEAR.
#1422
March 30th, 2009 17:57
I think you were missing the post of my original comment also. I totally understand that people change their minds about horses. Like you say it is all part of the analysis. I wasn’t even saying you didn’t fancy Darkness or that you have changed your mind on it. My point was that not so long ago I was picked up for saying that he was a top top trend matched, and only appeared to miss out on Stephen’s Top 5 Hennessy.. profile. Your response was that it doesn’t matter how close they are, they either fail or they don’t. I agree we can change our minds on horses, but to thn comment only weeks later that Darkness only just misses out on a big trend when you had pulled me up for saying exactly that only weeks is early was something I thought id comment on.
With regards to Butlers Cabin you had done a similar thing with regards to your view on the stats. Before Cheltenham you said if he didn’t get a top 3. He would be out, no questions asked. Yet after the festival you wer slightly lenient towards him, saying he was not of your list. It was myself that picked you up on this and after a little persuading (I think it was Crisp who reinforced the point) you stuck by your word and withdrawn him.
Was in no way meant as a ‘dig’ and was merely sightly light hearted comment about how you repeating something you had dismissed only weeks earlier.
Your input is very worthy on this site and I for one am glad you do share it with us. Please don’t be offended.
But I thought I had a genuine point with Darkness being not far away only to be told that it didn’t matter. You surely have to be open to being picked up on too. You must see the slight hypocracy of the situation. Was in no way criticising your analysis, merely the way in which you analyse being slightly fickle.
Wasn’t supposed to be a major post tho so please let us move on.
Ells
1
#1423
March 30th, 2009 18:00
Gosh betfair…1 horse withdraws…pls unsuspend..zzz…lol
#1424
March 30th, 2009 18:03
Think its out of order that they suspend when WOA is withdrawn but now when CB is. Allowing those in the know to lay out and cost innocent punters hard earned cash. Surely its rule for one = rule for all.
Ells
1
#1425
March 30th, 2009 18:08
to be fair I think I have it correct when I say Silver Birch spotted Darkness systems, but you have been championing him since spotting you’d missed him with your analysis ages ago!
think its really silly to bicker as I think this horse is just as likely to fall as win!! no but seriously, we all love this site and the huge amount of work people put in and share, so stop it!
Good point about this placing thing! I’m afraid systemsman I remember you have done it several times talking about Cornish, Mon MOme and L’Ami placing in the GN when you mean unplaced but finished, but I let it go as it is obviously a miss wiring firing
#1426
March 30th, 2009 18:09
Re: Darkness and selective quotes:
Lough ‘ So Tough’ Derg – I think you forget to post these quotes on Darkness by me (you comments need to ne put into the context below and as you can see I have always supported Darkness from Dec 17th 2008!!):
“Systemsman says:
December 18, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Grand National Ante-Post 2009
Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can! Part 2.
RESULTS
Now how many pass all nine trends (with TS set at the lower 111) and are the most likely winner of the Grand national 2009?
4. Darkness OR 143. RPR 156, TS 133 *** (if he runs)”
“Systemsman says:
March 18, 2009 at 10:41 PM
Ok here its is. Systemsman’s final “Black Book” ratings for the GN short list.
All 28 listed in order of price on Oddschecker.con were assessed We are down to a short list of EIGHT but really SIX srong contenders.
Its a basic trends system that is very accurate after the last prep runs and sorts the wheat from the chaff.
Ratings:
Three stars are needed for the serious short list (+ and – also possible)
A – also fits Systemsman pre-christmas GN winners trends
B – also fits Stephens GN winners profile (1/2/3 Scots Nat, Welsh Nat etc etc).
So the highest possible marks are *** (3 stars – with a possible+)plus A and or B
Results – the 3 star short list and the winner of the GN 2009 (in the full 3 star list that is):
One horse stands out clar and sharp – get on!
OR 137 to 144 and Class1 chase winner listed first:
1. Rambling Minster *** A B
2. Darkness *** B
Note: 3 stars only if 33/1 and under on the day (very, very likely). I did say there was a surpise and this is it – Darkness 2nd best if 33/1 or less. I suggest you invest now as 33/1 or under very likely (currently 33/1-40/1[x3].”
“Systemsman says:
March 18, 2009 at 10:50 PM
Correction
Change:
“2. Darkness *** B (?)”
Note: The B for Stephens GN winners profile was missed by 1f (2×3 wins at 3miles including one at 28f. Darknesss won at 27f so I gave it the benefit of the doubt – have now added the (?). Technically he does not qualify for the “B”. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance chase however and its my gut feeling he has neen laid out for the GN 2009 but can he beat Rambo?”
“Systemsman says:
March 19, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Just been down to W. Hill to place a stonking big bet on Darkness and Cornish Sett to back up the big bets on Rambo and KB – yes my own money is where my mouth is (also got CB and a few others now to high in the weights). Waiting on PL who no doubt will let us down again and head for the Scots Nat or something (it will be my last bet if needed).
If you want to bet on the “Dark One – he who is to be feared” or CS get on at WHill NOW (CS 50/1, 40/1 the Dark one)will be all gone very, very soon.”
“Systemsman says:
March 28, 2009 at 11:04 PM
33/1 on one of the three best ruuners – now thats value – get a bit while you can (if Blue Sq are corrcet that is).
If Darkness does run as we all hope I cant see his price being better than 20/1 by Friday.”
“Systemsman says:
March 29, 2009 at 6:47 PM
My final selections:
Rambling Minster 6
Darkness 5″
“Systemsman says:
March 29, 2009 at 6:38 PM
Just done a review of the top 8 in the blog list and suitability for Good and Good/Soft ground in the GN.
Darkness
Good: ***** (5 Stars)
Good/Soft: ***** (5 Stars)”
“Systemsman says:
March 30, 2009 at 10:22 AM
P.S Darkness now attracting support all across the board as predicted now under 30/1 with all bookies (and meets the price profile for te GN winner). This one will be under 20/1 on the day I am sure”.
These are just some of my many positive comments on Darkness – point made I think!!
#1427
March 30th, 2009 18:18
Once again I refer you to my earlier post regarding the point of my message. I was in no way denying your support for Darkness, nor condemning it. Has absolutely nothing to do with your liking for him. My original comment was..
“RE Systems. I swear when I was making a huge case for Darkness and listed the trends he met and didn’t meet it was you who commented. I said that he pretty much met every stat apart from Top 5 Hennessy 1 where I said he was only a furlong away. And I believe your comment was something along the lines of.. “It doesnt matter whether he nearly does or not, the point is he fails on it” How the times change ay..”
I think it is you who is taking what I have said out of context. If someone changes their mind on a horse I have no problem. I will never condemn someone for changin their minds on a horse. I may add my argument as to whether it can or can’t win but will never condemn someone for an opinion. As I just posted: I was also a supporter of Darkness and made a detailed post about his chances and his trend matching. I said that he failed on Stephen’s trend but was only 1f away. To which you replied that it had no bearing as to how close he was. Yet in a post today you say that he meets most trends but misses out on Stephens by inches. That is my point. Has nothing to do with your selections.
And I resent being told I have taken your words out of context. I said he was close, you said it didn’t matter, a trend is a trend, and today you post that he misses it but only just. There bare facts.
As I said I highly respect your analysis and it helps me so lets let this petty argument go, but you must see my point. I have not taken anything out of context and I believe I am entirely right in what I was saying. Christ, was hardly worth mentioning now.
Ells
1
#1428
March 30th, 2009 18:21
Systemsman/wacky et al
Really enjoying the various posts and hope the trends remain intact.
I remember last year one of you indicated that other than the GN, the next best trends race was the Epsom Derby. I know it is very early days yet but could you post the trends needed to win the ED?
Would be well appreciated.
#1429
March 30th, 2009 18:22
oh im so happy not for the ones who bet but war of attrition out im so glad maljimar will get run yippeeeee
#1430
March 30th, 2009 18:23
Come on guys. we could pick faults with most of the posts if we go back far enough.
What matters now is that we stick together and work together to find the most LIKELY winner.
There isnt one person on here who can predict the future and say that Rambo will win (Well KJ maybe but he’s excused cos he’s a nutter
)
Now let bygones be bygones and carry on finding the extra value from the bookies for the likely winner and horses to be most likely placed as thats what were all on here for.
#1431
March 30th, 2009 18:26
Please…. I’ve wasted too much of my life reading people’s arguements. I’m sure we can all see what you’re both saying and there are more important things in life. I think we’ve all said as much as there is to be said and as we get nearer the day, all the preparations done, everyone’s got their shortlist and it’s case of checking the markets for value. We’ve all said good and bad things about most of the field so let’s just chill and think about what to spend the money on. I for one have my eyes on an HD camcorder and save the rest.
#1432
March 30th, 2009 18:26
Has anyone used the trend tool on the main page.
I’ve just used it now using the trends i strictly follow and then putting a few others in and it gave me Rambo, Southern Vic and L’ami.
I hope its Rambo out of them 3 as i haven’t put any money on the others.
#1433
March 30th, 2009 18:36
Well WOA out, surely now Maljimar in (at 41 now) – what do we make of his chances?
#1434
March 30th, 2009 18:52
1. kilbeggan blade
2. himalayan trail
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
5. my will
6. lami
come on the blade
#1435
March 30th, 2009 18:56
One thing I’ve noticed over the past few weeks. People seem to be in one of two camps. We all agree on Rambo (pretty much) but then people either seem to side with 1 of 2 groups. You’re either with Kilbeggan Blade, Southern Vic and Himalayan Trail to name the main ones, or.. you’re with Parsons Legacy, Darkness, Brooklyn Brownie and to a lesser extent Cornish Sett. There doesn’t seem to be much crossover. Just something that I was thinking about today and amused me. KB and HT seem to go hand in hand (see post above).
Ells
1
#1436
March 30th, 2009 19:00
looked at IrishI again looks like doesn’t stay, lots of.. going well in 3rd, hit 4 out,. in 7th no extra finished 10th. Looked at few distance outings over 2m2f! seems his distance and is a clean jumper at this distance so its a no from me. Happy with Brooklyn Brownie there.
#1437
March 30th, 2009 19:00
MY WILL-6
RAMBO -5
KILLY BLADE-4
PARSONS LEGACY-3
BUTLERS CABIN-2
IRISH INVADER-1
Rambling Minster 138
Kilbeggan Blade 57
Himalayan Trail 52
Darkness 46
State of Play 42
Parsons Legacy 33
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 22
Brooklyn Brownie 18
Cornish Sett 17
my will 13
Butlers Cabin 11
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1438
March 30th, 2009 19:08
indeed Lough, thats the problem as last minute jeebees set in (think there are 2 camps there too, the firm opinionateurs! and the infirm
hee hee) as soon as SV comes back into my mind I do think well why not HT then, haaha. I am firmly in the 2nd camp though not confidently!
#1439
March 30th, 2009 19:09
HI KJ, JUST REFERING TO RACING POST EXTRA PULLOUT ON FEB 11TH QUOTING W MULLINS THAT IRISH INVADER NO PROBLEM WITH DISTANCE.
#1440
March 30th, 2009 19:12
err alanham did not add previous naughty unadder ‘dc’ marks
so it should look like this
Rambling Minster 141
Kilbeggan Blade 63
Himalayan Trail 57
Darkness 46
State of Play 46
Parsons Legacy 33
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 22
Brooklyn Brownie 18
Cornish Sett 17
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 11
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 5
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 2
#1441
March 30th, 2009 19:19
Rambling Minster = 6
Kilbeggan Blade = 5
Parsons Legacy = 4
Cornish Sett = 3
Brooklyn Brownie = 2
Offshore Account = 1
#1442
March 30th, 2009 19:21
Rambling Minster 147
Kilbeggan Blade 68
Himalayan Trail 57
Darkness 46
State of Play 46
Parsons Legacy 37
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 22
Brooklyn Brownie 20
Cornish Sett 20
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 11
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 6
Comply or Die 5
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 2
#1443
March 30th, 2009 19:26
Evening All,
Not sure if I should have added my list a little earlier, but here it is anyway.
1st – Himalayan Trail
2nd – Darkness
3rd – State of Play
4th – Knowhere
5th – Cornish Sett
6th – Comply or Die
Also think Killbeggan Blade and My Will should be on the premises as well. Im probably the only one, but I just cant have Rambling Minster, ( does this mean im nuts? ) ive watched it run and it just didnt strike me as a National winner. I think Knowhere would have an outstanding chance if it had a lower racing weight but he is very classy. Fell twice before after long seasons ( 7-8 runs ) but was travelling ominously well last year carrying top weight, has less weight this year and will be much fresher. Himalayan Trail has been running at unsuitable trips on unsuitable ground for the last 13 months with one aim, to protect his h’cap mark solely for this race. Watched ( and backed ) Darkness when he won at Newbury and just had to get stuck in again. Was on at huge odds beforehand and still cant see why he is such a big price now ( 25s ).
Shoot me down !!!
#1444
March 30th, 2009 19:31
BANG! BANG! foxes can u add your scores, or remember when you posted before to see if some kind chap added them for you already?
minty
the figures don’t seem to back this up,
I am aware of the trainers comments and some of our irish friends have suggested the trainer really fancies him, I think he seems a sound jumper at 2m2f but anything above that seems to have him hitting one in the back straight and having nothing left and that was still under 3m. He has run a few at 3m and 3m1, best result 3rd with Ruby on heavy aged 6. I think he is improving and he is only 8, no ground preference, so early antepost next year maybe?
#1445
March 30th, 2009 19:33
Updated List
Rambling Minster 147
Kilbeggan Blade 68
Himalayan Trail 63
Darkness 51
State of Play 50
Parsons Legacy 37
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 22
Brooklyn Brownie 20
Cornish Sett 22
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 11
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Offshore Account 6
Comply or Die 6
Silver Birch 3
Knowhere 6
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 2
#1446
March 30th, 2009 19:36
however minty, you could read something into the wacky 11 or II theory I posted earlier today
.. could place along with 10 others!!! but hard facts say not likely, sorry.
#1447
March 30th, 2009 19:42
3 times in 1 night, wow
KJ, sorry, not getting u right now, who’s an 8yo?
#1448
March 30th, 2009 19:46
he was talking to minty I believe.
Ells
1
#1449
March 30th, 2009 19:48
Foxesfan – I was delighted to read your post. About time we had someone on the forum to argue the case against Rambling Minster!
After finding this site, despite having shortlisted RM earlier, I always felt the constant tipping of the horse was in danger of becoming blinkered. It felt as though you weren’t allowed to post on here unless you fancied Rambo! lol
However, in fairness I think just about every contender has been debated over the last few weeks, and all it’s really done is left me convinced that RM is entitled to be in the shake up. And if the stats are right he should be the one!
I would be interested to hear your reasoning for your selections.
#1450
March 30th, 2009 19:54
Sorry for anyone who backed War Of Attrition. I would concede the trainer hasn’t covered himself in glory with his comments to the media throughout, but this appears a genuine injury/setback that could happen to any horse at any time.
There but for the grace of god…
Having recovered from the initial reaction of seeing him trading at 300 on Betfair this evening, my thoughts are that Hear The Echo would run, and therefore he keeps his word and only one of his two are withdrawn.
So how does this benefit Maljimar?
#1451
March 30th, 2009 19:56
Crisp re your stats below
some of the longest surviving stats;
62/62- age 8-12
48/48- since last race, 10-84 days
41/41- top 4 in a chase this season*
(with more chasers running in hurdles now a top 3 in hurdle/chase would be 41/41)
40/40- ran in at least 9 chases*
37/37- win at 24f,hurdle/chase
30/30- weight 11-5 or less
(only Rummy’s carried more since the 1950’s)
27/27- win in last ten chases
(American Ben Nevis was last not to, he came over to Europe for two years to try and win GN, 39/39 not including him)
26/26- 2-8 prep runs
23/23- top 3 in a C1 chase(vast majority seem to have won C1)
Given that these particular stats have stood the test of time i think im right in saying that there are only a handful of qualifiers ( SIX ACTUALLY)carrying less than eleven stone.
LAMI
CORNISH SETT
DARKNESS
RAMBLING MINSTER
SOUTHERN VIC
BROOKLYN BROWNIE
Quite interesting that the number is so small
#1452
March 30th, 2009 19:57
3 times in 1 night! fox by name foxy by nature? was it the Ruby on heavy bit
I was talking to this cockney called Minty! ;0 about Irish Invader. lol
#1453
March 30th, 2009 20:00
Another day of twists and turns leading up to what has been one of the most unstable Ante Post markets for the National in my opinion. The race has cut up quite badly and it seems to be Rambling Minster’s for the taking. Whether he does win or not is a fact that remains in limbo until 4:30pm on Saturday, but I believe when the race card of 40 runners and riders is laid out in magnificent colour that he will be the one stand out individual.
Rambling Minster remains a solid 10/1 2nd/3rd fav across the board. Still value really.
There has been quite a move for State Of Play today. Now a general 14/1 chance with bookmakers. It makes the 25/1 that was available some weeks ago seems quite nice now. If the bottom weight on the day is 10-4 then he is at the very top of the “12lbs above” marker. Ideally you would like 11-0 or less, but he does have class in a field that seems to be losing it’s class horses by the day.
I think King Johns Castle running so well last year was a shock to the system in terms of that he was so far away from a National type. Irish Invader could run very well for another shrewd Irish trainer in Willie Mullins, a winning GN trainer no less. His form screams no chance, but then again so did KJC. He has also come in for market support and is as low as 14/1 in some corners. The irish could latch on to him and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run well and fall just short.
#1454
March 30th, 2009 20:13
silver Birch
Fundamentalist, Irish Invader!! both under 11st too with Mon Mome on 11st so also technically meets Crisps ‘test of time’ stats, as I understand it from Dan.
#1455
March 30th, 2009 20:19
If Maljimar gets in – needs just one more to drop out – he will be on an awesome mark for a very classy performer. He fits the long-term winners trend of being lightly raced this season and travels so well i think he has every chance of getting the trip despite getting caught on the line at Cheltenham. I don’t think the jockey will hit the front quite so soon on Saturday. He’s certainly the dark horse of the race and it’s amazing he’s been virtually unconsidered until today. You can almost certainly rule out anything carrying more than 10st 9lbs – that makes it a 12 or 13 horse race. And if Maljimar stands up he’s got to be in anyone’s top four. Time for a rethink lads.
#1456
March 30th, 2009 20:19
As I was stating when Dan deduced 9 horses from crisps trends. I have 5
. I’m clearly a man of trends and stats. After all my research, debating and analysis, I have 5 of the remaining 6 under 11 st which comply with the major, long lasting trends. The only other 1 from my shortlist of 6 missing is.. Parsons Legacy and as he only fails on the ‘time since last run’ stat when we know he runs fresh I am willing to forgive this. Southern Vic the only horse I’ve had a saver on. Don’t why I bother doing all my research lol. Just apply these main trends and I could have saved myself the bother. Providing they stand up at worst I’ve covered my stake in Southern Vic and if any others do it – big cash payout 
Nice little reassurance only a few days before the race 
Slightly worried about L’ami’s odds at the moment tho. On the drit quite a bit with 44s being matched not so long ago. Obviously no one has heard anythin major or he would be drifting much quicker than this, but maybe a few murmerings have been heard?
Ells
1
#1457
March 30th, 2009 20:23
hi kj , ok I wont argue as i did it in a bit of a rush . nevertheless its a surprisingly short list and a good quick guide to help folks … im going to make sure im on the 6 mentioned and then its time to sit back and let the good lord decide
#1458
March 30th, 2009 20:24
What do people make of the WOA withdrawal? Funny that until yesterday Mouse Morris has been banging on about WOA running and HTE missing out and now WOA doesn’t go. Coincidence or ramping?
#1459
March 30th, 2009 20:31
Ratings after WOA withdrawal and other market movements according to my indicators (which might be different from the trends – not quite sure what ‘the trends’ are – everyone seems to apply their own – which is as it should be – otherwise no need for forum)
Rambling Minster 37
Black Apalachi 36
Southern Vic 34
Kilbeggan Blade 31
L’Ami 31
State Of Play 31
My Will 31
Himalayan Trail 30
Cornish Sett 30
Darkness 29
#1460
March 30th, 2009 20:34
KJ I AGREE HIS FORM DOES NOT SUGGEST II CAN DO THE DISTANCE BUT JUST WANTED TO BRING YOUR ATTENTION TO THE REPORT OF THE TRAINER.
BY THE WAY I AINT NO COCKNEY. RIGHT I’M OFF UP THE APPLE AND PEARS TO WASH MY BOAT AND CALL MY TIN LID ON THE DOG.
#1461
March 30th, 2009 20:36
everyone hold your bets! i have just taken the 5 day declarations (with colours for obvious reasons) to show my wife and in a couple of minutes name and colour studying she has given me
darkness
brooklyn brownie
the oracle has spoken. dont say i didnt warn you all.
#1462
March 30th, 2009 20:40
this is the winner history states that horse weigh about 10-6 – 11-1 age 9-11 with the jockey on board of graham lee kilbeggan blade is the one to beat, what about that
#1463
March 30th, 2009 20:51
is mon mome a runner? it is missing from the sporting life list but on RP?
#1464
March 30th, 2009 20:52
sure thing Silver, sounds like a good idea, kinda wishing I was a novice on this blog and had come along at this late stage without all the stressing, and backed them there Crispy6! if I do I’ll be on an outragous 8 horses, am I happy just to have rambo, cornish and BB on this ole list? its got alot of those i been ummin about, for years I backed 1, then 2,3,4,5 and 6 for a couple yrs. currently I have 5, having started my collection 6mths back thats ok but if I have just 1 more which 1 should you have?
I already have BA oldest bet, hmmm
rrrrrrrrrambo biggest,
cornish longest odds,
COD come on! er place littlest odds bet.
and all the Bs BB!
me is thinkin maybe the Dark one even though he is a dangerous jumper and grey, but the wise ones know
#1465
March 30th, 2009 20:56
Applying what I consider to be the most talked about trends over the past few months to top 20 in the betting on Oddschecker, with first reason why OUT I can think of:
Snowy Morning – OUT weight
Comply Or Die – OUT weight
Black Apalachi – OUT weight
Hear The Echo – OUT weight
My Will – OUT weight
State Of Play – OUT days since last run
Big Fella Thanks – OUT 7 years old
Butler´s Cabin – OUT No top 3
Parsons Legacy – OUT days since last run
L’Ami – OUT French
Cornish Sett
Darkness – OUT no 28f win, no key race form
Irish Invader – OUT no 28f win, no key race form
Rambling Minster
Southern Vic – OUT no 28f win, no key race form
Kilbeggan Blade – OUT no Class 1 form
Brooklyn Brownie – OUT no 28f win, no key race form
Himalayan Trail – OUT no top 3
Maljimar – OUT no 28f win, no key race form
Leaves Cornish Sett and Rambling Minster
Red pen treatment is brutal – I guess that’s why we are all being a bit more lenient this year
Coming round to the idea that the bunch below 11’0 are not that likely this year so that the 11’1 statistic might go
#1466
March 30th, 2009 20:59
Irish Invader KJ, you know you want to
#1467
March 30th, 2009 21:00
…what…keep WOA in to see if high weighted fancies are encouraged to stay in also and if they do it will help HTE’s weight…
#1468
March 30th, 2009 21:02
There’s radio interview with Keith Reveley on the RP site about Rambo. His biggest concern is that the horse will get a bit buzzed up with the preliminaries.
#1469
March 30th, 2009 21:05
Ooedipe + KJ
I think most of my selections go against the alot of the stats. State of Play has too much weight and has been off the track for too long, Knowhere has too much weight, Himalayan Trail is not in good enough form, and Darkness has no form in large fields I believe. When I started backing my National horses my first horses on the list were Himalayan Trail, Black Apalachi, State of Play, Darkness, and Knowhere. I backed all on Betfair at big prices, but layed off on Black Apalachi. Nothing has really put me off since, only Knowhere seems to have a few lbs too much. I didnt expect HT to show any sort of form. Ive backed and layed quite a few over the last 4 months with the intention of making a little, er over 30 in fact but the only 4 ive not laid off are HT,Darkness,SOP,and Knowhere. So they win me lots. Fundamentalist has just been mentioned. He has been trading in the 300′s – 500′s for a couple of weeks. Think this isnt the worst bet ever for a small stake. Asked how Ive come to my conclusions,ive watched these horses and I just liked them for the national. Whereas when i saw RM i wasnt compelled to back him at all.
#1470
March 30th, 2009 21:06
Is there any chance that Cloudy Lane could run into a place, even with his huge weight? At least we know that the trainer will definately run him; I know he didn’t really get home last year but I do believe that there’s a big difference between a horse being an 8 year old and 9 year old [eg Hedgehunter]. At 40/1 I may have a small ew on him.
#1471
March 30th, 2009 21:08
…what…keep WOA in to see if high weighted fancies are encouraged to stay in also and if they do it will help HTE’s weight…
Something like that. Or say that WOA will run and HTE won’t so that HTE drifts and we can get on at a better price before we announce that HTE will run.
#1472
March 30th, 2009 21:12
Re RAMBO – not a serious concern, nothing threatening, no…
Not that I’m AT ALL worried you understand, lol
#1473
March 30th, 2009 21:22
trying to be a crafty mouse me thinks!
foxesfan
all I can say really is if I was coming into this fresh myself as I did for years and won, I would go the traditional route, nice light weight 10-06 say, a good stayer , good jumper with form, simple. God and do you see the list on 10-06!
#1474
March 30th, 2009 21:27
I like how that interview shows the ends of Rambo’s races for free lol. Got his Gold Cup win was impressive. The fact that CB won so easily at Cheltenham is just even more testament to his chances. Also I watched Matt Williams’ tips. You have to love some of these:
His top 2 bets
Butlers Cabin
Big Fella Thanks
One horse totally out of form and severely out of the handicap and the other a 7 yr old novice.
However his third shout goes to Rambling Minster so we can let him off a little I suppose.
Ells
1
#1475
March 30th, 2009 21:36
I have applied the last seasons 9 trends as i see them for the forecast / tricast market
no 3 mile form
french breds with no form over aintree fences – or a good gold cup run
minimum class 2 victory
previous completed run round national finishing worse than 2nd
over 11st 3lb unless winner – or a good gold cup run
more than 2 falls (national excluded)
seven or younger
twelve or older – unless previous national form
i am afraid i still have 16 left inc mattock ranger and niche market not yet confirmed but likely. the winner should for sure come from these which doesnt include from the top 10
black apalachi
hear the echo
big fella thanks
l’ami
i suggest laying these 4
of the others
my will is in because of his gold cup 5th – otherwise he fails two stats but he is not included as a winner
butlers cabin – very tentative as french bred and not placed over fences. left in as he was going well at the time but you really have to take on trust whether would have been placed.
of our list i would be taking on
Irish Invader 22
Cornish Sett 17
War of Attrition 8
Black Apalachi 6
Knowhere 3
Hot Weld 1
L’Ami 1
#1476
March 30th, 2009 21:40
how have i missed offshore account? i think i struck him off for the strong gale connection but he is suddenly staring at me in my list. anyone any thoughts?
#1477
March 30th, 2009 21:42
regarding fleet street – is he still officially a novice? wonder why paddy power have him half the odds of everyone else @ 33/1
#1478
March 30th, 2009 21:51
Foxesfan,
Fair play….as they always say, trust your eyes.
#1479
March 30th, 2009 21:55
having said that Fox I do think a 11stoner could get in the mix this year, with good ground and have had a saver on COD sentimental it could be, but he won easily last year and is classy jumper, not saying he can win with 11-03 and has lack of proper runs but hey, its money he earnt for me anyway!
and good luck to everyone here charging down the motorway for the meeting, as for everyone else I’ll see you soon, hope I’ve entertained you today atleast amongst all the nervous tension! I was supposed to be working today not messin about well it was a much needed warm up and wash down for saturday, aaaaaaagggggghhhhhhh!!!!
good luck in playing the layin game Fox still haven’t tried it too scared
#1480
March 30th, 2009 22:05
Which horse are you most worried about?
For me it’s Black Apalachi. There seems to be a common belief this horse needs soft ground to win and has too much weight.
That is opinion.
The facts are that he won the Becher Chase by 74 lengths and has progressed throughout the season culminating in a career best RPR of 164 LTO.
In spite of all this evidence I have not backed him.
He is the one horse I fear.
Am I the only one?
#1481
March 30th, 2009 22:06
The remarkable back-from-the-dead revival of Hear the Echo leaves a bad taste, in my opinion. I hope the great race is not facing another surprise winner from Ireland.
What price was he trading at after effectively being ruled out?
The War of Attrition betting coup (or was it a stampede?) which deflected the spotlight from Hear the Echo could have leapt from the pages of a Dick Francis novel.
Some opportunists will have cashed in, while most punters lost out.
#1482
March 30th, 2009 22:07
for the actual winner i have been left with the following
mattock ranger and reveillez – totally out of form
himalayan trail – specifically trained but probably hopelessly out of form
state of play – just over 11st.
parsons legacy – ground not lively enough
darkness – jumping? and more
rambling minster
and then the following (thought the odds would presumably actually give you an idea of their chance.
offshore account
niche market
i would say back one of the above four for a win.
#1483
March 30th, 2009 22:09
in case you need some help sleeping here is the tricast analysis
out of the last 9 seasons only 5 horses have been placed not having won over 3 miles including king johns castle who you could argue had won a 3 mile point to point. in six of these races completely ignoring horses who havent won over 3 miles would have shortlisted the forecast / tricast.
Stan
Battlecry
Musica bella
Irish invader
Arteea
Cerium
Maljimar
Iron man
as per my earlier post drop french breds who havent run well over national fences unless you really fancy them.
Mon mome
Butlers cabin
Golden flight
L’ami
Kelami
Pomme tiepy
out of the last 9 seasons only 4 horses have placed not having won a minimum class 2 chase. and in the last 7 years only the fly in my ointment, kings john castle, has been the only one. do not include anything that hasnt won at least class 2 in your selections.
Companero
Zabenz
Idle talk
only one horse placed has improved its position over the last nine seasons, amberleigh house, a proven aintree specialist. a few have come back to be placed again but not better (hedgehunter, blowing wind, clan royal to name a few). bear this in mind when looking at horses previously placed. of the 6 winners to return 3 have been placed. I cant find any horse that’s get better by the time it has its third run in the race.
Cloudy lane
Chelsea harbour
Eurotrek
Cornish sett
nothing over 11st 3lb unless a previous winner or decent gold cup run (ie my will)
snowy morning
knowhere
ollie magern
black apalachi
hear the echo
priests leap
1. forget having fallen in the grand national unless they have fallen there twice – and if they have ditch them
2. no horse in the last 9 years has finished in the 1st 4 having fallen more than twice (national excluded as one finished 4th)
3. of the 9 winners only one winner had fallen more than once (national excluded) – bindaree.
4. I probably might have even left out any horse which had fallen twice (national excluded) as before 2007 only two had finished in the money – bindaree and royal auclair. however 4 of the places in the last two nationals 1st 4 where filled by horses who had fallen twice. I’ll leave it to you but if in doubt and needing some persuading i would count out horses who have fallen more than once (national excluded)
fundamentalist
Age
7 and under – nothing
big fella thanks
cant buy time
#1484
March 30th, 2009 22:12
ref above post – i added butlers cabin back in for a place position as he was running a good race and did not complete. i lose him for other reasons to win but for the tricast he would be left in for further analysis
#1485
March 30th, 2009 22:47
I took a afternoon/evening off Grand National swatting in order to do a bit of (successful) US racing betting and all hell has broken out; WOA out, HTE in, heated debates/arguments on this site, and some new contributers to the forum. God bless the National. I’ve spotted a couple of earlier questions which I think have gone unanswered:
Baggy – you’re right that Mon Mome does not appear on Sporting Life list. Very strange has doesn’t seem to be affected on Betfair. Does anyone have any info? I know he isn’t popular here but I had a sneaky £4 on him as he’s my second favourite horse!
Maureen – don’t sue me if I’m wrong, but I can’t see Cloudy Lane getting anywhere near a place. Far too much weight, doesn’t stay this far and form not as good as last year
Can someone give me 4 reasons why I should back State of Play and 4 why I should not. I’ve left it unbacked, but it remains my ‘worry horse’!
#1486
March 30th, 2009 22:47
RE Offshore Account. He looks really good till you look at the dates of his runs. He’s had 1 run since Winter 07 which was in a hurdles rac on 15th March. Literally just come back from injury and would take major upset for him to bounce out and win the Grand National. Plus he has only ran in 6 chases I think.
Yer I agree I’m not too happy with the old Hear the Echo thing either. Imo Mouse playing a very twisted game which is wholly unfair on us punters tryin to make a fair buck. Thankfully I haven’t had any money on either but I think there’s clearly something gone on. If they had come out and said WOA was lame or injured I would have been suspicious, but the fact that “they were’nt 100% happy with him and therefore would run HTW instead sounds like absolute tripe to me’. He was their major preference only days ago. The whole “we will send 1 of the other over” didn’t strike me as reasonable either. If you think they both have a chance then send them both. If you think one has a chance, then send that 1. But don’t say we are only sending 1 but we’re not sure which 1. What you couldn’t find a big enough ferry Mouse?
I didn’t fancy HTE before, when I thought he was running and therefore don’t fancy him now. But something tells me mr morris hasn’t been untirely honest with us. Moans on weights day more than anyone else – price drifts a little, not happy with that he plants another indicator that HTE won’t run, price still somehow remains pretty solid, finally says he’s very unlikely as they are only taking 1 and preferenc is WOA. HTE’s price rockets. Next day WOA is taken out and HTE is running. Price shortest its been. hmmmmmm
Ells
1
#1487
March 30th, 2009 22:56
Won’t post what I think about Mouse Morris and a syndicate that owns two horses with him as it’d prolly get admin in trouble… anyway crimewatch was good tonight wasn’t it? Not that police and crime have anything to do with the discuss at hand mind, we’re talking about horse racing not fraud.
#1488
March 30th, 2009 22:58
“Hear The Echo is 110 per cent and he will be our runner in the National.”
I’m not going to swear on this site as it isn’t appropriate but bullflip. What, he’s 110% now but he wasn’t even worthy of taking to Aintree yesterday was he not Mouse? Last years Irish National winner is 110% today but wasn’t likely to compete yesterday?
Literally the only way all this is legit and true is if he just wants to have a runner in the National and as WOA has not been great today he is sending HTE instead, even though he isn’t happy with the weight. That would make some sense of his comments about only 1 travelling and what has happened today. Still.. all very fishy to me. But still don’t think he can win.
Also Ruby says the reason for picking My Will is cos the ground is likely to be good. He knows the stats, yet he would still rather ride My Will off 11-4 than Southern Vic on good. Doesn’t say much for SV’s chances on goodish ground, combined with Ted Walsh’s comments not so long ago.
Ells
1
#1489
March 30th, 2009 23:05
SOP
my positives are actually the reverse of my negatives
over 11st – but only just
hasnt run for 90 days – but goes well when fresh
might not stay – but then trainer bullish about distance
flat track prob a bonus
seems to go on any ground
#1490
March 30th, 2009 23:15
Also Ruby says the reason for picking My Will is cos the ground is likely to be good. He knows the stats, yet he would still rather ride My Will off 11-4 than Southern Vic on good. Doesn’t say much for SV’s chances on goodish ground, combined with Ted Walsh’s comments not so long ago.
To be fair he’s ditched SV for a hot fav not a 100/1 rag.
#1491
March 30th, 2009 23:28
my current 3 for the fc/tc bets are
state of play
my will
rambling minster
then i think i will perm 3 others with them
anyone else any ideas?
#1492
March 31st, 2009 06:55
I like those 3 baggy. Would also add in Comply Or Die and Brooklyn Brownie as another two that will hopefully jump round.
Surprised that COD isn’t being talked about more on this forum. I think he is the benchmark horse. Work out where he finishes and you should be able to place everything else on a strict line of form.
#1493
March 31st, 2009 07:12
Its not just the people who backed WOA you have to feel sorry for but HTE had a major walk in the market the last couple of days or so and there’ll be 1 or 2 people having laid it at big odds who won’t be too happy with Mr Morris either.
Squeaky bum time!!
#1494
March 31st, 2009 07:26
just been looking at trends in the racing post-9 out of the last 20 winners have carried between 10 6 and 10 8-this year the bracket is 3 horses-KILBEGGAN BLADE (MY TIP) PLUS BROOKLYN BROWNIE AND HIMALAYAN TRAIL-Dont know much about the other 2 but they do have course form BROOKLYN ON HEAVY GROUND which looking at his form he doesnt like much-thoughts ?
#1495
March 31st, 2009 07:32
That stat also means that 11 out of the last 20 winners didn’t carry between 10-6 and 10-8. Seems a bit false that one for me. Any low weight would be good enough. Doesn’t have to be specifically between those weights.
Here is the Sportinglife guide to the National…
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/31/RACING_National_Pinstickers_S.html
Another Rambo pick by the journos.
#1496
March 31st, 2009 07:47
yes i agree that that means 11 out of 20 didnt but my point is there are only 3 horses in that bracket out of 40
#1497
March 31st, 2009 07:53
Well it’s a nice little fact but meaningless to me. 9 out of the last 12 winners didn’t carry between 10-6 and 10-8. Including last year’s winner. As I said, a low weight, whatever that may be, is fine.
#1498
March 31st, 2009 08:09
I’m finding it hard to keep up with all the posts now (and disagreements) and have to go to the big City Thursday (BKK, not LON) so am bowing out until next year. Thanks to Admin, Systems, Pablo, Stephen, Crisp, Showlad, KJ, Notellpa, Lough etc etc who I remember from the start and have made it a really enjoyable occasion this year. Rambo has actually made it difficult due to being the only real trends horse. I hope he backs up the stats. Good luck everybody.
#1499
March 31st, 2009 08:12
I agree with everyone else’s comments re Mouse Morris. I’m smelling a plot. However, I don’t agree with views that HtE can’t win. I had been going on about him but was silenced by the weights. Perhaps there is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel (could be different class on his day – but would need to be). My 3, Rambo, BC and HtE are looking better by the day. I’m confident the winner is in there. Still a couple that bug me and I’ll be using some more of my betfair profit to cover Darkness and Parsons Legacy. If a heavyweight is ever going to win, surely this could be the year.
#1500
March 31st, 2009 08:14
Have a good trick Thaimark and enjoy the race (and your winnings – let’s hope)!
#1501
March 31st, 2009 08:20
Good trick???? TRIP!
I think I’d better go now.
#1502
March 31st, 2009 08:57
Why is everyone surprised about WOA and HTE.
Prior to the weights we all said it would happen and that it was a good thing for HTE.
It was only when we seen the weights that we said Oh well there goes that theory.
It was only last week that Mouse said he would be happy to ride either horse so he hasn’t been totally shunning HTE.
I think if we look at the situation then can any of us actually say we are surprised.
Dont get me wrong i do feel sorry for the punters who have been stung by this but i also blame the tipsters who were bigging WOA chances up.
If we thought it was going to happen back in January then surely they should of known it may happen and hold back tipping it until it was a confirmed runner.
And yes i did put a bet on HTE prior to weights although i had given up on it and now wish i had put more on when the odds drifted but i didn’t and now its too late to top up as the value is all but gone.
SPEEDYSEAGULL in reply to SOP i don think i can give you any other reasons as to what has been stated above as to why he can win.
Although i would say he is carrying maybe a touch more weight than i would of hoped for but i got him at 33′s which i thought was excellent value to find out if he could cope with a couple of pounds on the wrong side of 11 stone.
If he can cope with the weight (and its a big if) in the company of some of the unexposed horses lower down then he will be in the mix at the end.
If the unexposed horses have been weighted favourably then im afraid SOP wont be there at the end.
The decision left to make is, is the price big enough to carry some of your money to find out.
For me at the time the price was right, If it was now i’d be undecided, but if it dropped any lower then i’d keep my money as i would need value to find out the answers to all the questions.
#1503
March 31st, 2009 09:03
to confirm who was left in after elimination for tricast.
silver birch was eliminated as a 12 year old as although a former winner does not fit the same bill as amberleigh house and is actually on his third attempt now.
reveillez and mattock range were eliminated as woefully out of form
comply or die
my will
state of play
butler’s cabin
offshore account
parsons legacy
fleet street
darkness
rambling minster
southern vic
kilbeggan blade
brooklyn brownie
himalayan trail
niche market
for the winner
state of play
parsons legacy
darkness
rambling minster
#1504
March 31st, 2009 09:08
Safe journey ThaiMark! Thx 4 ur contributions
#1505
March 31st, 2009 09:13
Baggy i appreciate your hard work in the F/C T/C but is it really something you can narrow down using trends?
I.e. is there a trend for finding runners up and third place horses in the national?
My advice would be to work out which horses have the best chances of winning (maybe a list of 2 or 3) and then add in another couple who only just miss out on the trends and then if you think CorD can go well again put him in.
You will end up with a list of 6 horses who you can use for your F/C and T/C’s instead of a list of 14 horses which would cost a fortune to cover all permatations.
#1506
March 31st, 2009 09:14
Happy journeys ThaiMark.
Good luck for saturday and look forward to your input again soon.
#1507
March 31st, 2009 09:29
Have Rambo, SOP & SV but looking for one more and it’s that pesky horse again that’s bothering me:
Kilbeggan Blade:
-ve
No Class 1 win – goes back to at least Mr Frisk in 1990
Does not look well handicapped and this is a handicap
No A P McCoy to ride
Other than it beat RM at Sandown (I think RM would have beaten it if they’d gone another 6f) – can anyone give me a good reason why I should back this?
#1508
March 31st, 2009 09:41
Thanks for the SOP feedback. I’ve decided that it will be the horse I have a cheeky e/w bet on in the shops on the day. No more than that, just so I can get something back if it wins. I can’t see it shortening that much before the day?!
My favourite jockey will be on the Big Fella. However, I will resist the temptation to back an anti-trends horse because of that!
#1509
March 31st, 2009 09:50
Bets struck on the Racing Post site
L’Ai most popular Rambo third (there’s still hope then!!)
13248 bets L’ami
4347 bets My Will
3864 bets Rambling Minster
3772 bets Butler’s Cabin
3358 bets Comply Or Die
2921 bets Black Apalachi
2921 bets Hear The Echo
2622 bets War Of Attrition
2507 bets Cloudy Lane
2254 betsBig Fella Thanks
#1510
March 31st, 2009 09:52
SportingBet have clearly just gone through a re-pricing and have pushed many of the top horses out by a pt or two. They are the only bookies going 11s about Rambo and Butlers Cabin so if you fancy them best have a bet now before they are clipped back in.
#1511
March 31st, 2009 09:54
“13248 bets L’ami
4347 bets My Will”
3 times as many bets on L’Ami as on any other horse?! That surely can’t be right?
#1512
March 31st, 2009 10:05
Now either thats a typing error and the 1 should not be there or all racing post readers were led to believe McCoy was on L’ami.
Either way i like that for Rambo as i wouldn’t expect him to get as many bets as Ruby’s or McCoys rides. Take them 2 out (Or what was percieved to be there rides in the case of McCoy) and you have the best trends horse there.
#1513
March 31st, 2009 10:13
Double checked with RP site – its correct if RP is correct that is:
13593 bets L’ami (a few more wagers now on)
#1514
March 31st, 2009 10:23
Yeah i meant RP had made the typing error not you systemsman
It has to be down to the McCoy factor, wether its true or not only time will tell, as this would also explain the huge drop in price as well.
Looking through that list again i cant really see any surprises on it (BFT will be down to it being tipped in Racing post) as i would expect most of the horses to get decent amount of bets (previous winner, Irish winner, McCain’s horse, Beecher winner, Gold cup winner, and Ruby’s & McCoys horses) the only exception is Rambling Minster, Why bet on this horse above all others???
The only answer leads back to trends which backs up everyone’s hard work on here over these months.
#1515
March 31st, 2009 10:34
Racing Post card for GN can be found at:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd?race_id=473559&r_date=2009-4-4
GN Winner as I have believed all along is between:
OR 146 (max)Parsons Legacy
down to
OR 138 (min)Maljimar
There is nothing decent on OR 136 to 137 (all 66/1 or more in price).
OR 144 down to 138 best which would be:
OR 144 Battlecry
down to
OR 138 Maljimar
Of those between 138 to 144 mentioned as good bets/trends on this site the folowing look good (in no order)
OR 144 CORNISH SETT
OR 143 DARKNESS
OR 143 IRISH INVADER
OR 143 RAMBLING MINSTER
OR 143 SOUTHERN VIC
OR 141 KILBEGGAN BLADE
OR 140 BROOKLYN BROWNIE
OR 140 HIMALAYAN TRAIL
OR 138 MALJIMAR
If the trend stand up you should fin dthewinner in the baove list
At OR 145 to 146 the following alos have to be considered as possible winners (in no order).
OR 146 PARSONS LEGACY
OR 145 L´AMI
Thats it the 2009 winner is up there somewhere – just use your own trends/stats etc and you should have a good short list of 4-6 (from the total of 11) with the winner in it. Of course Rambo must be in any short list.
#1516
March 31st, 2009 10:38
The tricast information was based on an analysis of the last 9 runnings and the horses finishing 1st to 4th. An example would be only one horse finishing in the 1st four in the last 9 years who hadnt won in minimum class 2 race. there is one additional stat to use on the day in that only one horse has placed in the last 9 years at bigger than 40/1. 2 others were 4th.
#1517
March 31st, 2009 10:55
I wasn’t having a go Baggy but i think its not in the best interest of puttin gstats up like that as this close to the national once a year punters will stumble across this site and see stats like that and think i might have a go at not realising the cost it will be to cover all permetations of such a long list of horses.
E.G the under 40/1 trend you have just stated will no doubt be more than half the field included and probably 2/3 of the field come the off.
Anyway like i said i didn’t mean to sound like i was having a go and if you have found a way of working out the tricast then good luck to you.
#1518
March 31st, 2009 10:56
Parsons Legacy coming in now across the board on oddschecker.
#1519
March 31st, 2009 11:09
Bookies are taking few chances this week. Boylesports have just clipped My Will into 6/1
#1520
March 31st, 2009 11:21
Is there anyone out there who can give a good example of what a penalised horse is please???
#1521
March 31st, 2009 11:34
Top 3 in C1 chase- well, looking at this stat, following on Pablo’s piece about 18/18 have won a C1 won( is that right, Pablo)
West Tip won Mildmay Cazalet, 29f then and Ritz Club chase at Cheltenham Festival in 85, Maori Venture won Mandarin chase ’84(think that’s something else now) Little Polveir won Scots National ’87. I make it that a definite 29/36 25/30, 22/22 have won C1 chase. (Some of the others in late 70′s, early 80′s may have but not sure)
Of those 22/22 I think only Red Marauder and Montys Pass didn’t win one at 25f or further and Monty dudn’t race any further than 24f.
#1522
March 31st, 2009 11:42
SystemsMan says:-
OR 144 CORNISH SETT
OR 143 DARKNESS
OR 143 IRISH INVADER
OR 143 RAMBLING MINSTER
OR 143 SOUTHERN VIC
OR 141 KILBEGGAN BLADE
OR 140 BROOKLYN BROWNIE
OR 140 HIMALAYAN TRAIL
OR 138 MALJIMAR
If the trend stand up you should find the winner in the above list.
NICE POST SYSTEMS – THINK YOU’RE RIGHT THERE.
RE HT AND KB – I THINK THOSE OF US THAT HAVE BACKED THESE 2 ARE FULLY AWARE THAT THEY DON’T MEET ALL THE KEY TRENDS (WHO DOES APART FROM RAMBO?!). I PERSONALLY JUST THINK EITHER OR BOTH OF THEM COULD COME GOOD ON THE DAY AND THEY DO AT LEAST MEET MOST OF THE STATS. BUT WHEN IT COMES TO BETS/RETURNS, RAMBO IS UP THERE TOP OF MY LIST.
BROOKLYN BROWNIE IS MY EACH WAY BET (MY ONLY E/W BET ON THE RACE, AS I USUALLY STICK TO WIN ONLY)
#1523
March 31st, 2009 12:03
1st Parsons Legacy
2nd Black Apalachi
3rd Himaliyian trail
4th Battlecry
5th Killbeggan Blade
6th Rambling Minster
I really like the value with Parsons Legacy ,i had taken the 40/1 available only a week ago,hope you can all get some of the 33/1 avaiable in ladbrokes this morning, be quick though as his price has dropped on betfair just now to 29/1,
Good luck all
#1524
March 31st, 2009 12:09
Cornish Sett’s vital statistics.
long term stats; aged between 8-12, won one of last ten chases, won C1 chase at 26f, (2nd in one at 30f), 10st 10lbs, 49 days since last run, 4 prep runs, ran in at least 9 chases.
now Systemsman analysis;
won 3 chases of any kind, one chase win at 17k or more, TS-145(best ever this season and in Welsh Nat at 30f)
RPR- 150(equalled this best ever mark this season, won C1 26f chase) OR 144, sure to be lower than 33/1 on Saturday.
Slightly outside the ‘zone’ on 3 career falls/ur-
12/14 2 or less,
8th last time out- 19/22 7th or better
#1525
March 31st, 2009 12:18
Hi Guys busy at work, can someone update table for mkane.
Ta in advance
#1526
March 31st, 2009 12:19
Black Apalachi also 100% on those long term stats posted yesterday. A bit worried about him. Also figures on ‘winner profile’ and great trends as far as I can see. Dessie Hughes(I’ve got an uncle Dessie and I’m getting windy) has maintained since Becher chase day that BA doesn’t need heavy ground.
#1527
March 31st, 2009 12:19
Crisp
Great analysis on Cornish Sett.
Can anyone confirm the stat on horses unplaced and returning, as Cornish Sett was unplaced last year. I appreciate he has had a wind operation (carried out prior to last seasons race), but if this is a strong stat, which I believe it is, surely this would be a major negative?
Your feedback is appreciated.
#1528
March 31st, 2009 12:27
RE: Cornish Sett
I have used them last 2 trends to eliminate him from my final list of four (although to be honest i just needed an excuse to narrow it down so picked that and ignored the ones that Parsons Legacy didn’t meet as i prefered PL over CS)
Which think goes to show just how close the next group of runners are behind Rambling Minster and were all interepting the trends slightly differently / ignoring some to get our favourite in our list etc etc.
Having used the trends predictor again and being a bit more stricter it came up with Rambling Minster, Southern Vic, Kilbeggan Blade & Darkness.
Which looking back through all the posts SV & KB were the only ones highlighted back in Febraury as the ones that met the trends (Rambling Minster had been overlooked at first but would of been in the list) along with Garde Champetre.
#1529
March 31st, 2009 12:29
GN table
Rambling Minster 148
Kilbeggan Blade 70
Himalayan Trail 67
Darkness 51
State of Play 50
Parsons Legacy 43
Cornish Sett 22
Southern Vic 22
Irish Invader 22
Brooklyn Brownie 20
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 11
Black Apalachi 11
War of Attrition 8
Offshore Account 6
Comply or Die 6
Knowhere 6
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
L’Ami 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1530
March 31st, 2009 12:33
For all KB fans there is a video with Tom George on RP site now.
Cant tell you whats in it yet tho as comp at work won tlet me access it
#1531
March 31st, 2009 12:38
Crisp: Top 3 in C1 chase- well, looking at this stat, following on Pablo’s piece about 18/18 have won a C1 won( is that right, Pablo)
Well kind of – but this is Class not Distance and there is one exception – 2 if you’re unkind:
Mr Frisk: 29f Listed H’cap
Seagram: 25f Grade 3 National Hunt Chase
Party Politics: NO; 2nd Hennessy & Welsh Nationla season of GN win
Miinnehoma: 24f Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase
Royal Athlete: 24f Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase
Rough Quest: 24f Grade 3 Racing Post Chase
Lord Gyllene: 34f Grade 3 Midlands Grand National
Earth Summit: 30f Grade 3 Welsh National
Bobbyjo: 29f Grade A Irish Grand National
Papillon: 16f Grade 2 Newlands Chase
Red Marauder: 20f Grade 2 Ascot Gold Cup Chase
Bindaree: 20f Grade 2 Novices’ Chase
Monty’s Pass: 24f Grade A Kerry National
Amberleigh House: NO; 27f Class 2 Becher Chase (now 26f Listed Class 1 race) – 2nd in Becher season of GN win
Hedgehunter: 25f Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase
Numbersixvalverde: 29f Grade A Irish Grand National
Silver Birch: 30f Grade 3 Welsh National
Comply Or Die: 21f Grade 2 Novices’ Chase
Party Poltics I got wrong – he didn’t win a Class 1 before his National win (he won the race Rambo won at haydock AFTER hos National victory – must have been a late night!) BUT he came 2nd in Hennessy and Welsh GN the season of his win
Being harsh you might say that Amberleigh House’s Becher Chase was strictly speaking a Class 2 when he won it but it is now a Class 1 race – and he was second in Becher the year of his GN win
So maybe stat should say Class 1 winner or placed in recognised Grand National key race (Hennessy, Gold Cup, main Nationals, Becher) in current season if no Class 1 wins
#1532
March 31st, 2009 12:43
Good thoughts Brian. I hope I’ve succeeded in highlighting those trends, 12/14 2 career falls or less for example, just to show to those who want to use stats that there are some longer 100% and some that are 80% to say 90%. I like Himalayan Trail but he would break two long term stats. I hope I’ve given fair reflection on Cornish Sett’s chances. I do think people are hung up on his 12th last year when for whatever reason he’s virtually a different propositon this year. Well, that’s my opinion. Look at how he jumped, if he’d fallen at the last big ditch when in touch with the leaders he’d be 14/1 now. Alistair Down’s comments that I posted were interesting and he seemed to suggest that CS’s preparations were badly affected by his op last year which of coourse they probably would have been (looked what happened to Hedgehunter in 07). I presume he’s spoken to Nicholls or connections.
#1533
March 31st, 2009 12:51
Cheers, Pablo.
#1534
March 31st, 2009 12:58
Well, we’ve got Ollie and Stan running ….
#1535
March 31st, 2009 12:59
I can see why people are tempted to back Cornish Sett for many reasons but you have to remember that he weakened badly last year near the end. Can the operation explain all of the lengths that he was beaten? Yes, he finished strongly in Welsh National this year but that race is a fair bit shorter
It also needs to be remembered that he finished ”tailed off” behind Rambling Minster in his last outing. He also finished quite a way behind Mon Mome who didn’t run a great race himself. In fact, although I can’t check this at work, I would imagine that if you added the combined distances beaten of Welsh National and Haydock race for both Mon Mome and Cornish Sett they would be pretty similar, as were the finishing positions in last year’s national. I don’t advocate backing either but the odds discrepancy between the two is huge!
Just my opinion! I don’t like to see my horses tailed off in their last run before the national!
#1536
March 31st, 2009 13:03
Expansion of what Crisp has just posted:
“Connections of enigmatic steeplechaser Stan have elected to stay closer to home and tackle the John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday, rather than take up a possible alternative engagement in the Far East.
The 10-year-old was handed an invitation to take part in the Grand Nakayama Jump, a valuable international Grade One contest run over 4,250 metres at Nakayama racecourse in Japan, later this month.
However, Stan’s owner Paul Beck and trainer Venetia Williams have instead decided that the horse should take his chance in the world’s most famous steeplechase, which this year boasts a record £900,000 in prize money.
“We’ve turned down the Japanese invitation and we’re 100 per cent set for Aintree,” Beck said on Tuesday.”
Will Maljimar get in now? Are Arteea and Zabenz going to run?
#1537
March 31st, 2009 13:06
See now i got doubts about having disregarded Cornish Sett in favour of Parsons Legacy.
Damn you Crisp lol.
On a more serious note there are some trends out there that should be strictly applied to get a shortlist the rest is individual preference on how to shorten that list down to a more manageable one, if it wasn’t this way then life would be boring and there would be no such thing as betting on the national as everyone would pick the same horses.
and before all these posts quickly get buried with the hundreds of posts that will no doubt arrive over the next few days i would just like to pass my thanks onto Systems, Crisp, Pablo, Stephen, Notellpa, showlad, stats, Wacky, and KJ (who surely is the real wacky one) and all the rest of folk that i’ve forgot to mention but have put in the hardwork.
But especially to Admin for setting up this great blog where folk like us can discuss, think aloud, argue, swear at, and even shed tears with each other.
Now that my OSCAR speech is over (I can hear you all shouting thank god for that) lets hope that all forty horses & riders return safe and the best horse wins and its the one carrying most of my money on
#1538
March 31st, 2009 13:13
1. Rambling Minster
2. Kilbeggan Blade
3. Irish Invader (worried about this one)
4. Snowy Morning (on good ground surely a good bet for a place)
5. Parson’s Legacy
6. Brooklyn Brownie
Why has parson’s legacy’s price shortened so rapidly? also has anyone heard of a reason for his poor run last time out?
#1539
March 31st, 2009 13:14
I will just throw in a negative about a few horses recently mentioned:-
Black apalachi – too much weight according to the trends
Cornish Sett – ran and completed prev Grand National which isn’t a good sign, especially as he was well adrift – look at the stats of previous runners that did not fall
Darkness – pulled up in two “nationals” which may not be a trend buster but certainly puts me off.
Not saying that they can’t win, of course, but if people are happy to knock the likes of Kilbeggan Blade and Himalayan Trail then you have to accept the above are also far from ideal.
Most of us are being nothing more than ‘hopeful’ with our alternative selections to Rambo, hence the variances evident on this site.
My top 3 match with the overall standings on this site, which I’m pretty happy about! However whilst I would be happy to see HT or KB win, I admit it would be a bit dissapointing re the trends.
#1540
March 31st, 2009 13:19
Amberleigh House was 3rd to Monty of course in 03 GN,
22/22 top 3 in C1, 21/22 top 2 in C1 chase
#1541
March 31st, 2009 13:22
Parsons Legacy has been hammered today. Skybet are the only ones still going 25s and I can’t see that lasting too much longer.
#1542
March 31st, 2009 13:24
Stats Man, 3/39 unplaced one year, won the next! In the same amount of time; 3/39 Irish national winners won, 3/39 wearing blinkers; it all stats and good fun!
#1543
March 31st, 2009 13:52
Jst one last thing about Cornish Sett.
Yes he finished tired last year.
But Hedgehunter was so tired he nearly sat on the last fence when falling and came back the next year and won.
In my warped mind tha makes Cornish better as at last he finished the race.
Just me and you then Crisp to te end
Come on Cornish
#1544
March 31st, 2009 14:03
Just found this trend and although i don tknow how accurate it is yet or how far back it goes it is very interesting one (providin gits correct of course )
Ratings on left-handed racecourses: 141+ Racing Post Ratings (RPR)
All achieved a minimum rating of 141 on left – handed tracks such as Aintree, Cheltenham or Leopardstown or any other left handed track.
#1545
March 31st, 2009 14:10
Why is there/has never been any money for Brooklyn Brownie? I’ve backed him twice at 40/1 expecting his price to come down at some point, but he is totoally ignored in the market.
#1546
March 31st, 2009 14:11
Brooklyn Brownie – Could be forgotten horse!
#1547
March 31st, 2009 14:17
superwinger you can add me to your club.
previously (mths ago)posted i had backed cornish e/w at 100′s with hills last year.to be honest i thought at one time it was a bad bet but now very happy and although don’t think he can win i do think a place is well reachable in this unusual year which will see the stat book and trends broken,for that i am sure.
#1548
March 31st, 2009 14:29
I am also in the Cornish Sett club if you hadn’t already guessed!!!
#1549
March 31st, 2009 14:31
I am completing my final piece of work and hope to have it up tonight (or tomorrow morning at latest). It will be followed by a price reveiw about Wednesday updated on the GN eve and updated again on saturday morning (for that last minute bet and to spot any gambles going on). I really want everyone to win and stuff those rich bookies (just like the bloody bankers!!) – we all deserve that holiday in the sun with the family dont we!!
Note:
There will be shock change in my 3rd and below choice (can you guess who is now my 3rd choice?)- come back later for full details.
Now must get on and complete that final review for you all.
#1550
March 31st, 2009 14:35
Maureen and Amy I am in agreement with you. I have a small e/w bet on Brooklyn Brownie and he has all the hallmarks of a decent chance. Probably one for the minor placings as opposed to the winner but a very nice each way return none the less.
#1551
March 31st, 2009 14:39
Brian, sounds bloody interesting.
#1552
March 31st, 2009 14:40
My top 5 in order are:
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Cornish Sett
Brooklyn Brownie
Himalayan Trail
Not sure of Southern Vic (don’t know about the ground conditions on the day)
#1553
March 31st, 2009 14:41
Also e/w on Brooklyn Brownie.
#1554
March 31st, 2009 14:42
Well having checked the stats back til 1996 (Rough Quest year) the minimum of 141 RPR achieved on a left handed track certainly holds up so that is a 13/13 stat so far.
Not looking good for Kilbeggan Blade as his best RPR on a left handed track is 134. (he has achieved above 141 on two occasions but both were at sandown which is right handed)
#1555
March 31st, 2009 14:43
Brian, keep us posted with this left handed business, I’m sure you’re on the right track.
#1556
March 31st, 2009 14:45
Hope not Crisp. Want to be on the left track
#1557
March 31st, 2009 14:47
Apart from, obviously the canal turn, does the National favour horses with a marked preference less than sharper tracks?
#1558
March 31st, 2009 14:48
Admin – what has happended to the blog on Jockey bookings?
#1559
March 31st, 2009 14:48
Good work Brian. If you have time, are you able to post best left handed ratings for each horse on our combined list so far, even the ones with just one point such as Fleet Street?!
#1560
March 31st, 2009 14:50
The last horse not to obtain a RPR above 141 on a left handed track was Little Polveir.
Now im using this trend as its too strong to ignore.
Later on tonight i will go even further back and report back.
#1561
March 31st, 2009 14:51
Will do that later on as well Speedyseagull.
Have checked my own horses and can confrim that Rambo, Darkness, SOP and PArsons legacy all pass.
Will do full list for you all tho
#1562
March 31st, 2009 14:52
parsons now 20-1 across the board and still falling
#1563
March 31st, 2009 14:57
Yep. I think because of what happened last year, a lot of people were waiting on the likely ground and for the bookies to go NRNB before backing PL. Now that time has arrived people (like me) have been getting stuck in.
#1564
March 31st, 2009 14:57
Brian very intersting and exciting work – please continue so that it can be added into my GN Black Book of facts.
Can you give us a short list of the six best left handed with OR 138 to OR 144 (possibly up to OR 146)?
#1565
March 31st, 2009 14:58
bet its driving you around the bend bri.lol
#1566
March 31st, 2009 15:10
Brian, got on info on straight lines and horse who prefer elbows!!!
#1567
March 31st, 2009 15:11
Little Polveir did win Scots Nat didn’t he, thought he would have had a decent RPR for that.
#1568
March 31st, 2009 15:14
heres one for KB fans
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/g-lee-aintree-grand-national-injured-lee-taken-to-hospital-after-wetherby-fall/175182/
#1569
March 31st, 2009 15:14
Worrying news for Kilbeggan Blade supporters
“GRAHAM LEE has been taken to hospital after falling from Wee Forbees in the 2m41/2f handicap chase at Wetherby on Tuesday afternoon.
The jockey is due to ride Kilbeggan Blade in the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, as well as Tidal Bay in the Grade 1 Melling Chase on Friday.”
Let’s hope Graham is ok. We’ve already got one jockey in a very bad way in hospital.
#1570
March 31st, 2009 15:35
systems man
i reckon No. 3 is finally Cornish Sett.
have we finally convinced you lol ?
#1571
March 31st, 2009 15:41
Is it time to reopen the x-files on Parsons Legacy?
113 days since last run, I know he’s best fresh but …
Likes ‘fast’ good ground, he won’t get that, watering to keep it soft side of good(which they did in Silver Birch’s year and three of the top four had form at 31f or more)
on the plus side Hennessey and Scots Nat form.
is this Systemsman steamer
the truth is out there ….
#1572
March 31st, 2009 15:45
Parsons has only recorded RPR 141 plus left handed…
#1573
March 31st, 2009 15:57
Crisp, Parsons has recorded 141+ at least 4 times. Just checked RP website. Looking good for him now, glad i’ve not got to much on Kilbeggan or is it one of those stats to be broke!!!!
#1574
March 31st, 2009 15:59
Sorry Crisp, just realised what you meant.
#1575
March 31st, 2009 16:11
Someone asked a while back why I thought REVEILLEZ would withdraw – it was based on a comment made by Jonjo back on weights day when he said REVEILLEZ would need to show some form if he was to run. Nothing I have read or heard indicates this has happened but I could be wrong so it certainly isn’t as certain as I made it sound but the odds of nearly 300-1 available on Betfair are extremely generous IMHO.
#1576
March 31st, 2009 16:19
fascinating blog.
Here’s another top 6
1. Rambling Minster
2. Kilbeggan Blade
3. Irish Invader
4. Parson’s Legacy
5. Snowy Morning
6. Brooklyn Brownie
2 I’m worried about: Black Apalachi and State of Play
A few questions: anyone have a reason for Parson’s Legacy’s poor run last time out? (and why has he plunged in the betting?)
also, are we right to discount Black Apalachi on good ground. I know he’s high in the weights, but he destroyed the field in the becher, and he did come a good second on good ground in a race in Ireland last year. His form all season has been impressive. thoughts?
#1577
March 31st, 2009 16:25
rambo drifting on sporting bet now 11s
#1578
March 31st, 2009 16:29
having said a few posts up about backing cornish,now i have just listened to video on racing post web-site about his runners and he was about as excited about his chances as me having a boyle lanced on my ar-e.outside chance waqs all he could muster.
#1579
March 31st, 2009 16:30
sorry paul nichols that was.
#1580
March 31st, 2009 16:33
What does he know !!! lol
#1581
March 31st, 2009 16:34
Error earlier on regarding Little Poveir. I was using racing post site and hadn’t realised that the data only went back to 1988 so idont have the figures too hand for his erlier runs but agree its more than likely he did achieve higher than 141 on a left handed track although i cant say for definite without seeing it in black and white.
Just about to start the research into this years runners. May take a while as i’ve decided to do all of the top 50. Will post the top 20 in the betting on here if you all like that way you can look for your own on the list. Give me a bit of time tho please as dont want to miss any out.
#1582
March 31st, 2009 16:43
Ryme- if Nicholls said he’s got outside chance he’s must be in the first three!!
#1583
March 31st, 2009 16:45
Brian
I can tell you off the top of my head that the following have posted RPR of 141+ on left handed tracks
Snowy Morning (GN)
Comply Or Die (GN)
Ollie Magern (Wetherby)
Black Apalachi (Becher)
My Will (Cheltenham)
State Of Play (Lots of places)
Silver Birch (GN)
Parsons Legacy (Chelts)
L’Ami (Chelts)
Darkness (Newbury)
Rambling Minster (Haydock, Chelts)
Southern Vic (Naas)
#1584
March 31st, 2009 16:52
Looking and most bets table for GN … we’re either on the ball, or we’ve got it very wrong! I think this could be a bit like ’03 in that there were some very heavily punted on, I seem to remember, on 11st upwards (Shotgun Willy, Chives, Ad Hoc, Gingembre, Iris Bleu) and it seemed as though a lot of stats were going to go.
#1585
March 31st, 2009 16:54
Hi I’m a new poster here but I’ve found your information really interesting the past few wekks. I just wanted to know all your thoughts on Eurotrek. I don’t know why but he stands out to me. Everything I know about him says stay way but I’m intrigued. Otherwise I’ve got my money on Hear The Echo, Parson’s Legacy, Brooklyn Brownie and Kilbeggan Blade. Cheers.
#1586
March 31st, 2009 16:56
I hope it’s like 2003 because I backed Monty’s Pass that year and remember that Eddie The Shoe Fremantle also tipped it in The Observer – this year he has gone for…
Rambling Minster
#1587
March 31st, 2009 16:56
just like to say to everyone really enjoyed everyone’s comments,thoughts&tips over last 2 yrs.it’s a great site admin.
i hope everyone wins something(especially me),there’s no surprise’s in my top 6
1rambling minster
2parsons legacy
3state of play
4kilbeggan blade
5darkness
6himalayan trail
best race in the world!
#1588
March 31st, 2009 16:58
Of course, he did! Eddie’s selections always seem to be there or thereabouts.
#1589
March 31st, 2009 17:04
that ugly geaser couch winstanley or what ever is name is has tipped cornish. good or bad you decide
#1590
March 31st, 2009 17:19
In race card order the best RPR horses have achieved on left handed courses are:
Cloudy Lane 165
Chelsea Harbour 156
Snowy Morning 159
Knowhere 165
comply or Die 158
Ollie Magern 165
Stan 158
Black apalchi 158
Hear the Echo 139
Priests Leap 138
My Will 166
Eurotrek 167
State of Play 165
Big Fella Thanks 153
Mon Mome 155
SilverBirch 150
Butlers Cabin 137
Offshore Account 140
Parsons Legacy 153
Reviellez 160
Fundamentalist 163
Golden flight 146 (AT AUTEILL – NOT SURE WHAT HANDED TRACK THIS IS)
L’Ami 163
Battlecry 154
Cornish Sett 150
fleet Street 145
Musica Bella 144 (AT AUTEILL – NOT SURE WHAT HANDED TRACK THIS IS)
Cant Buy Time 139
Darkness 156
Irish Invader 143
Rambling Minster 155
Southern Vic 159
Kilbeggan blade 134
Brooklyn Brownie 143
Himalayan Trail 145
Arteea 154
Cerium 137
Idle Talk 155
Kelami 143
Zabenz 143
Maljimar 151
Companero 135 (HOWEVER ACHIEVED 148 IN A HURDLE RACE LEFT HANDED)
Pomme Tiepy 135
Niche Market 132
Mattock Ranger 146 (AT CORK NOT SURE HANDING, If cork is R/H then best L/H is 140)
Iron Man 152
Flintoff 146
Patsy Hall 151
Bible Lord 144
Dix Villez 136
#1591
March 31st, 2009 17:23
Wow, Brian. Hear The Echo, Butlers Cabin and Kilbeggan Blade get a family fortunes X….
An 18/18 trend isn’t it.
#1592
March 31st, 2009 17:29
So out of the leading fancies then this trend would rule out
Hear the Echo
Priests Leap
Butlers Cabin
& Kilbeggan Blade.
SystemsMan The top 6 between Maljimar and Parsons Legacy are:
Fundamentalist 163
L’Ami 163
Reviellez 160
Southern Vic 159
Rambling Minster 155
& Idle Talk 155
So rambling is in that list as well but it doesn’t work like that its just a trend that they have to be above 141 going left handed and not who is rated the highest.
#1593
March 31st, 2009 17:33
I’m quite sure the winner is, on everything we’ve looked at,
Rambling Minster
Darkness
Southern Vic
Cornish Sett
#1594
March 31st, 2009 17:34
crisp 73 says:
March 31, 2009 at 5:23 PM
Wow, Brian. Hear The Echo, Butlers Cabin and Kilbeggan Blade get a family fortunes X….
An 18/18 trend isn’t it.
It is Crisp. Mr Frisk onwards have all achieved it prior to winning the national. Little Polveir probably did but i cant say for certain as there no details on the racing post site so it will stay as an 18/18 stat
#1595
March 31st, 2009 17:36
Oh and not that it can count for anything but Esha Ness also achieved it
#1596
March 31st, 2009 17:37
You couldn’t post those RPR’s could you Brian? Much appreciated. So the lowest is 141 are the others a lot higher? Do many/most reach 150 plus?
#1597
March 31st, 2009 17:40
Great detective work, Brian. Even Inspector Morse might break into a smile with that sort of breakthrough.
P.S. They do have left-handed chase tracks in Ireland, don’t they?
#1598
March 31st, 2009 17:40
Riverside Boy, Captain Dibble, Zetas Lad or Wont Be Gone Long would have won in 93! (not that I’ve looked at iy much!!) What
about those?
#1599
March 31st, 2009 17:52
Riverside boy 142
Captain dibble 145
Zetas Lad 136
Wont be gone long 135
So it would of been Riverside boy or Captain dibble.
#1600
March 31st, 2009 18:11
Previous winners best RPR’s left handed prior to winning the national:
Mr Frisk 156
Seagram 160
Party Politics 158
Miinnehoma 160
Royal Athlete 163
Rough quest 170
Lord Gyllene 157
Earth Summit 157
BobbyJo 141
Papillon 150
Red Marauder 145
Bindaree 149 (IN A HURDLE 144 IN A CHASE)
Monty’s Pass 148
Amberleigh house 154
Hedgehunter 148
Numbersixvalverde 146
SilverBirch 150
Comply or Die 155
#1601
March 31st, 2009 18:14
After that hammer blow trend from Brian, better news for us KB fans:
Lee stood down for rest of day after Wetherby fall
GRAHAM LEE was stood down for the rest of the day after falling from Wee Forbees in the 2m41/2f handicap chase at Wetherby on Tuesday afternoon.
The jockey, who is due to ride Kilbeggan Blade in the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, was taken back to the medical room by ambulance and was reported to be bruised and sore, but otherwise none the worse.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/g-lee-aintree-grand-national-lee-stood-down-for-rest-of-day-after-wetherby-fall/175182/latest/
So hopefully he’s ok for the ride on Saturday. Even if KB isn’t great left handed! Can’t believe I didn’t spot that…
#1602
March 31st, 2009 18:28
Parsons legacy is as low as 14/1 with a couple of bookies although you can still get 20′s.
If anyone wants a bet on this i suggest do it now but make sure you get NRNB as all other horses that have plunged this quick have been withdrawan, not that im suggesting anything there tho
Apparently the reason its dropping is because some tipping service is giving it out as the winner.
#1603
March 31st, 2009 18:36
so using Brians superb piece of investigatory work and my own bits and bobs from the stats my own opinion is the most likely winner is from….
Southern Vic
Darkness
Rambling Minster
Parsons Legacy
with Brooklyn Brownie also a possibility.
#1604
March 31st, 2009 18:40
In looking at the final short list have only consudered those on OR 146 down to OR 138 that meet the trends and supported on this blog.
I make the assumption that other good trend runners such as BA, SOP are weighted out of a winning chance ( I do have early best on them though).
The possible winnesr were I have also added battlecry as he is mentioned by a few on here)
OR 146 PARSONS LEGACY
OR 145 L´AMI
OR 144 BATTLECRY
OR 144 CORNISH SETT
OR 143 DARKNESS
OR 143 IRISH INVADER
OR 143 RAMBLING MINSTER
OR 143 SOUTHERN VIC
OR 141 KILBEGGAN BLADE
OR 140 BROOKLYN BROWNIE
OR 140 HIMALAYAN TRAIL
OR 138 MALJIMAR
Conclusion.
The best bet is easy but after that it has been a difficult year with my second and third choices changing more than once. It all points to a Rambo win for me.
After Rambo you either have to go down the HT and KB route or look at btter trend runners who have been placed in the GN last year – the latter is my choice based on the results below.
3 Stars (top in my “Black Book” rating) – 3 needed to win.
A – in my pre-christmas winner profile list (there were 12 in the final short list)
B – comlies with Stephens GN winners profile (placed in Welsh, Scots National etc etc or 3 wins at 24f (or more) which includes one at 28f or more).
1. Rambling Minster 3 stars A + B
OR 143 10.09 RPR155 TS144 Won at 32f
2. Darkness 3 stars A (missed B by 1F)
OR 143 10.09 RPR156 TS150 Won at 27f
2. L’Ami 3 stars A + B Won at 25f 2nd at 31f x2
OR 145 10.11 RPR163 TS165
Now it gets hard
4. Cornish Sett 3 stars B
OR 144 10.10 RPR150 TS145 Won at 26f 2nd at 3of
4. Parsons Legacy 3 stars A + B
(not run since 12th Dec)
OR 146 (at the top end)10.12 RPR153 TS141 Won at 26f
6. Kilbeggan Blade 3 stars A
Or 141 10.07 RPR145 TS124 (low) Won at 30f
7. Southern Vic 2 Stars B (just fails to get the third by 1F)
OR 143 10.09 RPR159 TS146 Won at 24f (low)
Two stars or eliminated were:
Irish Invader
Himalayan Trail
Maljimar
Brooklyn Brownie
Battlecry
Ofshore Account
Matlock Ranger
So there we have it L’Ami (like last year) along with CS get into the short list of 7 with SV demoted to last of 7 (it even surprises me). I just cant see HT winning failing so many important trends.
Rambo by far the best bet on all counts.
#1605
March 31st, 2009 18:48
Parsons major flaw is the days since his last race thoug -119 days – I just can’t see this stat being ovrturned on Sat.Not to say he won’t place though.
#1606
March 31st, 2009 19:02
systemsman what was number 8 on your list if i can ask?
#1607
March 31st, 2009 19:04
scratch that just re read and you have cleverly done an either or for the 2 i doubt . ta
#1608
March 31st, 2009 19:22
evening all! nice to come home and see 2 of my picks being up there in the conversations and the stats!- Cornish and Brooklyn Brownie
Cornish seems to have gained support in last day at the bookies! and like Crisp I think he is a different horse, given a chance to get over his op! but he WILL come from behind and if post rain conditions are slippery as I foresee, this could be big trouble.
Opinion looks very divided for BB,
I am not concerned by this, he is a bit of an unknown at the distance but his breeding would suggest he will get the trip, he has the solid experience of aintree fences! and could be the KJC this year.
#1609
March 31st, 2009 19:22
Reveillez attracting support on Betfair…I mopped up a bit of 350s yesterday and in the last hour top price to back 100s…Surely Mr McCoy hasn’t thought about riding this one…Surely..Seems strange why prices would suddenly dry up to 100s…
#1610
March 31st, 2009 19:29
Reveillez attracting support on Betfair…I mopped up a bit of 350s yesterday and in the last hour top price to back 100s…Surely Mr McCoy hasn’t thought about riding this one…Surely..Seems strange why prices would suddenly dry up to 100s…
A cynic would say cos its going to be withdrawn!!!!
But im not a cynic and wouldn’t suggest that the honest folk that run the bookies do things like that.
#1611
March 31st, 2009 19:33
Back to 150s…Jesus i have to stop this there are 4 days to go before the race and the slightest market move and i’m getting a sweat on!! God knows what i’ll be like during the race…Think i need some of those Kalms tablets :O) Anyone else having the same problem?
#1612
March 31st, 2009 20:09
just how many horses are people on?
re reveillez, as posted yesterday I saw he was stumbling around like a drunk after his cheltenham race can’t see any returns there!
#1613
March 31st, 2009 20:11
Not a French horse and previous runner in the national in your Top 3 Systems Man. I thought we were narrowing down the field.
L’ami strikes me as the nearly horse, one of those horses your not sure what his best distance is as he always seems to find one horse better. Especially over extreme distances he seems to run out of steam.
I hope i am right because he’s not getting any of my money.
#1614
March 31st, 2009 20:16
Rambling Minster
Cornish Sett
State of Play
Darkness
These are the four carrying my hopes for another year.
Couple of others done at long odds a while ago that will win me my money back.
Going to London with wife and Kids Easter Monday for a few days.
Hoping to buy Mayfair if Rambling wins Old Kent road if it doesn’t. !!!
#1615
March 31st, 2009 20:18
kj says:
March 31, 2009 at 8:09 PM
just how many horses are people on?
My serious bets are on 4 horses.
I do have early small ante post bets that i have given up on and the way i have worked my stakes they will only serve as returning my full stakes if any should win.
I will make money if either Rambling Minster, State of Play, Darkness or Parsons Legacy wins.
Or if 2 or more of the above four get placed.
If i am in profit after thursday and friday i usually put that profit on another horse picked out on race day and treat it as a free bet.
#1616
March 31st, 2009 20:22
IRISH INVADER is the one lads.
sorry the best odds are gone but thats the way it was played so it was.listen get on still profit to be won.
#1617
March 31st, 2009 20:31
i’m also on 4 with a couple of small bets made early on that ive since thought better of
#1618
March 31st, 2009 20:40
I can also confirm that McKelvey, the rightful winner (?!) in 2007, had a RPR of 146 on left handed tracks
#1619
March 31st, 2009 20:41
parsons legacy back on the drift. numerous firms now at 20/1
#1620
March 31st, 2009 20:45
I have most of my eggs in one basket – Rambling Minster
Laid off more of State Of Play and Southern Vic over the past few days – but will still be happy if either wins
Looking to have a bet on Black Apalachi if the price is right – getting to be a value bet for me now compared with the 12/1 available a week or so ago
4 decent handicaps (plus the National) to get stuck into over the 3 days – I can see a Super Yankee or two on the horizon
#1621
March 31st, 2009 20:47
Baggy,
He’s not on the drift. Some firms have slashed him into 16s or 14s but others have never gone lower than 20s.
#1622
March 31st, 2009 20:48
Is the Foxhunters chase on Thursday over the national fences?
#1623
March 31st, 2009 20:53
Yes as is Topham
#1624
March 31st, 2009 20:56
Excellent! Good viewing!
#1625
March 31st, 2009 20:56
apologies for the parsons scare then. my eyes are done for with all this computer staring and trends / form studying. i thought there were only 2 when i got in and now 6. my mistake.
#1626
March 31st, 2009 21:00
KJ
Being as you like to use psychic powers or quirky reasons for picking a horse what about this
All the worlds leaders meeting this week in London for G20 to discuss the worlds finances an to assess the current STATE OF PLAY
is this an omen ?
#1627
March 31st, 2009 21:04
Baggy,
Here where you coming from. I’ve had enough of form, trends, stats, opinions etc. I just want to get on with the action now! I’ve backed the ones i’m going for, but I might top-up one or two over the next few days.
#1628
March 31st, 2009 21:05
“Here where you coming from” Goodness me. Don’t even know my “here” from my “hear” anymore. Enough.
#1629
March 31st, 2009 21:14
Updated list as there are a couple which haven’t been added
Rambling Minster 160
Kilbeggan Blade 80
Himalayan Trail 69
Darkness 51
State of Play 50
Parsons Legacy 46
Cornish Sett 26
Irish Invader 26
Brooklyn Brownie 24
Southern Vic 23
Irish Invader 26
Brooklyn Brownie 24
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 11
Black Apalachi 11
War of Attrition 8
Offshore Account 6
Comply or Die 6
Knowhere 6
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
L’Ami 2
Snowy Morning 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1630
March 31st, 2009 21:15
Talking about omens i’ve just been reading that some folk are set to lose out seeing the big race itself as some company has went bust, it was som ecompany that deals with the hospitality part of it and 100′s of folk are to be left without there amazing suites that they had booked.
Now if it wasn’t so serious i would suggest that they all go and stick a tenna on ‘Hear the Echo’ as thats all that will be heard in them suites but guess its not funy really and i would hate it happen to me especially this close to the day.
Lets hope they get summit sorted in time for them.
#1631
March 31st, 2009 21:25
Just added mine. A bit suprised that KB is 2nd and even more that HT is 3rd.
1- Rambo (6)
2- State of Play (5)
3- Butler’s Cabin (4)
4- Parsons Legacy (3)
5- Irish Invader (2)
6- Brooklyn Brownie (1)
Rambling Minster 166
Kilbeggan Blade 80
Himalayan Trail 69
State of Play 55
Darkness 51
Parsons Legacy 49
Irish Invader 28
Cornish Sett 26
Irish Invader 26
Brooklyn Brownie 25
Southern Vic 23
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 15
Black Apalachi 11
War of Attrition 8
Offshore Account 6
Comply or Die 6
Knowhere 6
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
L’Ami 2
Snowy Morning 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1632
March 31st, 2009 21:29
Glad to say I have virtually the same top 7 as Systems after his new and final line-up. Only difference with mine is no KB and in comes Brooklyn Brownie.
Top 6:
Rambo
L’ami
Parsons
Cornish
Darkness
Brooklyn Brownie
and lagging behind in 7th
Southern Vic.
Only 1 difference systems
Thank you for reinforcing my confidence in my shortlist. Is always nice at this stage in proceedings.
I’m pretty sure L’ami meets the ‘B’ stat anyways systsems. I believe he finished 2nd in the Hennessy behind Trabolgan by 2.5l back in Nov 05.
RE horses that I have running for me – ‘a lot’ in little words as possible. Lot of wheeler deeling over the past few months means I actually have quite a few running for me.
Rambo – backed (25s and 19s)
L’ami – Backed (84s)
Parsons – Backed (41s and 23s)
Cornish – Backed (63s)
Darkness – Backed (99s, 54s, 41s, 39s,) layed out entire stake (39s 23s)
Brooklyn Brownie – Backed (45s)
Southern Vic – Not backed, I’m going to take the 35s/37s available any minute as want to just about cover my stake with this 1. Don’t think it will win, but only other possible winner (from my deductions) that I don’t have running for me.
Other bets (don’t fancy)
State of Play – Backed (37s, 33s) layed out entire stake (15.5s). Was gonna lay out more but didn’t think it was worth it in the end.
Silver Birch – Backed (149s) layed out stake and more (74s) – Still some profit if it wins.
Eurotrek – backed (379s layed out stake and more (249s, 139s). Marginal profit if it wins.
Milan Deux Mille – backed (999s)layed for stake and more (719s). Don’t think this will get in though so won’t make anything from this, will just receive stake back I believe.
Money lost on:
Character Building (severely)
Garde Champetre
A New Story.
There’s my entire list of bets, both running and N/R’s. Due to the CB withdrawal my situation isn’t half as good as it would have been but still with a good win if any of the top 6 win. Not bad if SOP or SB win either. Rambo wins then huge winnings
Ells
1
#1633
March 31st, 2009 21:34
Hi Guys,Before i post my lays for the race could someone please tell me the last horse to win the race after pulling up on its last start?I’ve already collected laying Denman,Character Building and WOA,so i will post 6 LAYS OF THE DAY with reasons to do so nearer the day!!
#1634
March 31st, 2009 21:34
My big winner is Rambo with BC and Echo making me good money. 35 of the others make a small profit with only 2 losers (out of principle)! These are the big fella and Cloudy Lane. I’m done now and will try to sit back and enjoy it. May have a litlle combi tricast on the day. I can’t help myself.
#1635
March 31st, 2009 21:38
Here you go…the results of the Valentine jury:
1, Rambling Minster.
2, State of Play.
3, Darkness.
4, Hear the Echo.
5, Cornish Sett.
6, Comply or Die.
If either of the top two get round I cannot see any other horse winning. I hope that doesn’t sound arrogant…I just see a clear gap between my top two and the rest, so much so that I’ve only backed these two.
Updated list:
Rambling Minster 172
Kilbeggan Blade 80
Himalayan Trail 69
State of Play 60
Darkness 55
Parsons Legacy 49
Irish Invader 28
Cornish Sett 28
Irish Invader 26
Brooklyn Brownie 25
Southern Vic 23
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 15
Black Apalachi 11
War of Attrition 8
Comply or Die 7
Offshore Account 6
Knowhere 6
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
Hear the Echo 3
L’Ami 2
Snowy Morning 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
I notice that Irish Invader is appearing twice and I can’t believe Hear the Echo has not been rated top six previously. Anyway, I’ll not meddle. I’ll leave any tidying up to someone who knows what they’re doing, if that’s OK?
#1636
March 31st, 2009 21:46
The last piece of the jigsaw puzzle is to now looks at where the money is going (and most important on the eve of the race). This is an alternative meathod to trends but can work just as well and or confrim current selections.
Prices taken from Oddsckecker.com
Over the last four days best blues (going down in price with the most money backed)
Blues:
Darkness 29 (in top 3 for last four days)
Pasons Legacy 27 (mainly last two days)
Cornish Sett 24 (only 2pts today)
Irish Invader 24 (only 2pts today)
Hear the Echo 21 (mainly last two days)
State of Play 21
My Will 20 (R Walsh money)
Maljimar 18 (only 3pts today)
Kilbeggan Blade 15
Butlers Cabin 14
Comply or Die 11
Battlecry 11
Rambling Minister 11
Reds (going out in price over last two days)
Big Fella Thanks 19
Southern Vic 17
Silver Birch 13
Cloudy Lane 11
Will update Thursday
Be careful with this info – if a runner is very low in price it cant change much in Blue other than go out in Red.
Conclusion:
Looking Good
Darkness
Parsons Legacy
Cornish Sett
Hear The Echo!
Irish Invader (has gamble now ended though?)
State Of Play
Rambo OK and taking money but hasnt got much room to drop much further until Friday/Saturday.
I am pleased that the moeny supports my top selections on my short list.
Looking Bad
Big Fella Thanks (at last the penny dropped)
Southern Vic (the ground)
Silver birch (had his day)
#1637
March 31st, 2009 21:55
superwinger
Got some other presidential tenuous links too but they could be deemed politically incorrect so.. anyway I wish I had an Offshore account!
I had noticed the State of Play! hee, hee
and I was going to tell an old friend of mine who has turned out to be a banker! that he should get on character building!
I’m counting on Rambo to win the fight!
#1638
March 31st, 2009 22:00
nearly went for darkness last night, as it did win well if a little dodgy at jumpin, meets alot of trends and has the dark future we’ve all got to look forward to, thanks to Gordon…
but can’t bare to back a Lloyd Webber musical horse!
#1639
March 31st, 2009 22:11
my bets
big winners
rambling minster 25/1
Parsons Legacy 40/1
smaller wins but wins all the same
darkness
state of play
other bets (as above) but not really fancying to win
himalayan trail
kilbeggan blade
not sure where I am coming from either? just sharing information and opinions like everyone else I thought.
#1640
March 31st, 2009 22:46
Hi all,
I’ve been reading this forum for a couple of weeks now – letting the missus go to be bed first of course!
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed reading through everyone’s post and can’t emphasise enough the gratitude for you guys putting in a lot of hard work with trends etc.
My top six is as follows:
6pt: The Rambler
5pt: Parsons Legacy
4pt: State of Play
3pt: Kilbeggan Blade
2pt: Black Apalachi
1pt: Comply or Die
I’ve included BA and COD as I’ve had them from the very start along with SOP and PL. I know there are weight issues with BA and COD but I just think weight may not play such a big factor with the good ground and the fact that both horses have loads of stamina.
Anyway, thanks for providing such an entertaining way to build up to the big one. If any of them come in I’ll be happy.
#1641
March 31st, 2009 22:51
Re above:
My alternative top six based on my random trend that a healthy percentage of previous winners have had 11 letters in their names is:
State of Play
Comply or Die
Cornish Sett
Hear the Echo
Southern Vic
Silver Birch
Note that two of them, COD and SB, are are on this year’s table too…!!
#1642
April 1st, 2009 00:26
Top 5 – win only.
Darkness
Silver Birch
Rambling Minster
Southern Vic
Kilbeggan Blade
#1643
April 1st, 2009 05:31
If people looking for omens, RAMBO showing on Sky this week, or new film out later in April, STATE OF PLAY!
I hoping I celebrate my birthday on Saturday with either of these 2 horses winning.
#1644
April 1st, 2009 06:36
Noticed previously that someone had posted the exacta and trifecta payouts for the last ten years of the national
does anyone know how much the s/f and tricast paid fo the same years.
Just tocompare which way to go ?
#1645
April 1st, 2009 08:10
Has anyone heard anymore news on Lee after he went to hospital last night?
#1646
April 1st, 2009 08:23
Nothing I can see as of yet Sammo. I’m sure they will update us when they know more.
Ok guys and gals. A bit of help needed. I’m looking into doing some Exacta and Trifecta bets for the race on Saturday. But is it only Totesport that allows you to place the bet? Or do any other bookmakers have it? Having looked at previous National payouts it seems the Exacta and Trifecta is far more profitable than the Forecast and Tricast.
#1647
April 1st, 2009 08:32
Has anubody seen the advert for the NAtional on BBC1 yet??? Talk about goose pimples!! I’m trying the Earl of Derby stand this year – Tatts were terrible last year. Come on Rambo lad!!!!!
#1648
April 1st, 2009 08:39
GRAHAM LEE is expected to be fit for the Grand National meeting despite being unseated from Wee Forbees at Wetherby on Tuesday.
The jockey, who is attached to the Ferdy Murphy yard, was stood down for the rest of the day, but Murphy is optimistic the 2004 Grand National winning rider will return soon.
Speaking to the Independent, Murphy said: “He’s fine. He’ll go down to Middlesbrough to have some physiotherapy at the football club, and that will set him right.”
Lee is booked to ride 20-1 chance Kilbeggan Blade of Tom George’s in Saturday’s race.
#1649
April 1st, 2009 08:46
I logged on to my PC at work this morning and the same message came up as usual. Only just noticed it:
‘Please ensure you comply with the Security Operation Procedure (SOP) when dealing with any sensitive information’
SOP = State of Play. NOOOOO!!! Can’t have this winning. It’s a sign telling me to back it!
#1650
April 1st, 2009 08:52
Just reading the headline in todays Racing Post about the plunge on Parsons Legacy into 14/1. Took me a few moments to realise it is April fool’s day after all!
#1651
April 1st, 2009 08:58
Hi all, been reading this blog everyday since the end of last year, aswell as last year. Not posted before as not had anything good to add. Just like to say thanks for everyones hard work and comments, especially the legend that is systemsman, pablo, brian, stephen etc…
Anyway my top 6 are
1 Rambling Minster (6)
2 Parsons Legacy (5)
3 Darkness (4)
4 Himalayan Trail (3)
5 Cornish Sett (2)
6 Kilbeggan Blade (1)
Rambling Minster 178
Kilbeggan Blade 81
Himalayan Trail 72
State of Play 60
Darkness 59
Parsons Legacy 54
Cornish Sett 30
Irish Invader 28
Irish Invader 26
Brooklyn Brownie 25
Southern Vic 23
my will 15
Butlers Cabin 15
Black Apalachi 11
War of Attrition 8
Comply or Die 7
Offshore Account 6
Knowhere 6
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
Hear the Echo 3
L’Ami 2
Snowy Morning 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
Oh and Stephen you can place an exacta/trifecta from any shop they have special slips, I do mine in laddies.
#1652
April 1st, 2009 09:00
Whitearab,
That bulletin was there yesterday though it is a bit misleading. Some bookies are going as low as 14s, but 20s is still avialable with others.
#1653
April 1st, 2009 09:13
Is it me or have there been a disproportionately high number of headlines about plunges on the National this year? (Some haven’t been reciprocated by vast sums on Betfair either)
Is this all a plot to drum up business in a weak economy? A better way in my humble opinion might be to stand some acceptable prices and take a view rather than follow Betfair like small-brained sheep
If you think the ground is against Black Apalachi give me 20/1 to decent money and I’ll take you up on it Mr High Street
#1654
April 1st, 2009 09:15
1, Rambo(thanx to you lot!)big money on this
2, Killbeggan B (my initial top)big on this
3, Parsons Legacy(I look after retired Clergy!)big on this @33s
4, Himmalayan T(just like it)half above stakes
5, Butlers Cabin..half above stakes
6, My Will (Class horse, now worried about weight)big at 20s
Lost BIG on Character Building(was, in my opinion, main threat to my top two)
Lost small to ‘War o attrition
Once again THANX to all contributors and Staff @OLBG..Lets all have a great few days eh..P.S, ‘Quality Road for the’ for the Kentucky Derby, take the 6s now! (sorry Admin as know its not the place..
#1655
April 1st, 2009 09:23
Always watch the money in the last week but beware false gambles connected to favorite jocks or tainers (like My Will).
Todays Racing post bets on GN
15709 bets L’ami
5313 bets My Will (R Walsh money)
4462 bets Rambling Minster
4186 bets Butler’s Cabin
3956 bets Comply Or Die
3496 bets Black Apalachi
3450 bets Hear The Echo
3036 bets Big Fella Thanks
2737 bets Irish Invader
2714 bets State Of Play
Last updated 10.16am
So Rambo holding up very well with a big gamble on L’Ami (did they read my short list?)
#1656
April 1st, 2009 09:37
I still don’t see how L’Ami has got around 3x as many bets as My Will and Rambo!! I can’t see him even placing.
#1657
April 1st, 2009 09:40
Also, there has been a plunge on Parson’s Legacy but he’s not on the list and the big fella seems friendless so I’m not sure how much credence I’d place in this list, also I’d rather see how much cash has been placed rather than nr of bets.
#1658
April 1st, 2009 09:43
Thankfully G. Lee has been given the green light to ride at aintree.
Full story here
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/04/01/RACING_Lee.html
#1659
April 1st, 2009 09:48
In the above list systemsman do you know how they count the number of bets.
i.e. is it number of bets placed at a certain high street bookie or is it readers just saying where they have placed there bet?
#1660
April 1st, 2009 10:12
SystemsMan – surprised by some of your selections, given the trend about french horses and horses that have ran and got round in previous grand nationals.
But good luck to you. I can’t really talk, as I have got HT and KB in my shortlist!!!
“COME ON RAMBO” will be the cry from most of us bloggers come Saturday….
#1661
April 1st, 2009 10:17
Brain I dont know I’ve just cut and paste.
An alternative list from our friends at OLBG – from the serious punters – take heed! (beware non runners in this list, there are more than listed))
647 tips totaling £174,729 in stakes
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/blogs/event_184869
Name: %Tips % Cash
King Johns Castle 2.1% 1.7%
Denman 4% 3.4% (Non runner)
Snowy Morning 2.1% 1.9%
Mr Pointment 0.7% 0.6%
Comply Or Die 8.1% 8.3%
Miko De Beauchene 0.6% 0.7%
Cloudy Lane 2.7% 2.8%
Hear The Echo 2.6% 2.5%
Iris De Balme 0.1% 0%
Old Benny 1% 0.6%
Gwanako 0.1% 0%
Chelsea Harbour 1.2% 1.4%
Irish Raptor 0.4% 0.4%
Parsons Legacy 3% 2.6%
Simon 0.9% 0.7%
Joe Lively 0.6% 0.1%
Character Building 4.4% 4.4% (Non runner)
Nine De Sivola 0.3% 0.1%
Hot Weld 1.3% 1.4% (Non runner)
Turko 0.3% 0.4%
Black Apalachi 6.8% 7.8%
Himalayan Trail 1% 1%
Madison Du Berlais 0.4% 0.3%
Butlers Cabin 4.3% 4.2%
Halcon Genelardais 0.1% 0%
Snoopy Loopy 0.3% 0.3%
Notre Pere 1.2% 1.1%
Battlecry 0.4% 0.4%
Arbor Supreme 0.1% 0%
Dear Villez 0.1% 0%
Big Fella Thanks 3.2% 3.7%
Kilbeggan Blade 4% 3.9%
Exotic Dancer 1% 1.3%
Garde Champetre 1% 1.5%
Abbeybraney 0.1% 0%
Roll Along 0.1% 0%
Irish Invader 2.7% 2.4%
Darkness 1.5% 1.2%
War Of Attrition 5.1% 5.8%
Cant Buy Time 0.6% 0.6%
Silver Birch 0.9% 0.7%
State Of Play 2.4% 2.4%
My Will 4.1% 4.6%
Emma Jane 0.1% 0%
Rambling Minster 9.8% 9.9%
Pomme Tiepy 0.1% 0.1%
Without A Doubt 0.3% 0.5%
Cornish Sett 0.4% 0.4%
Piraya 0.1% 0%
Monkerhostin 0.1% 0%
Southern Vic 1.7% 1.8%
Imperial Commander 0.3% 0.5%
Lami 1.5% 1.4%
Preists Leap 0.7% 0.7%
Knowhere 0.4% 0.6%
Arteea 0.1% 0.2%
Brooklyn Brownie 0.7% 1%
Golden Flight 0.3% 0.3%
Conna Castle 0.1% 0%
Puntal 0.1% 0.2%
Reveillez 0.3% 0.5%
Eurotrek 0.3% 0.1%
Mon Mome 0.1% 0.1%
Offshore Account 0.3% 0.3%
Always Waining 0.1% 0.1%
King Harald 0.1% 0.2%
Maljimar 0.1% 0%
Nadover 0.1% 0%
Idle Talk 0.1% 0.2%
Beat The Boys 0.1% 0%
Dun Doire 0.1% 0.2%
Milan Deux Mille 0.1% 0%
So for the leader board we have:
Rambling Minster 9.8% 9.9%
Comply Or Die 8.1% 8.3%
Black Apalachi 6.8% 7.8%
Butlers Cabin 4.3% 4.2%
My Will 4.1% 4.6%
Worth looking at again on Friday.
So Rambo the Fav with those in the know!!
#1662
April 1st, 2009 10:18
“The Stayer says:
April 1, 2009 at 9:37 AM
I still don’t see how L’Ami has got around 3x as many bets as My Will and Rambo!! I can’t see him even placing.”
Have to say I agree even with potential mccoy mania of his 8 billion or so starts none of the 4 wins he’s had have come with ole Tone onboard
#1663
April 1st, 2009 10:28
Stats Man
I too have big early bets on HT and KB so I wouldbe happy if they did win). But at this stage for 3rd and below in any short list you have to decide HT/KB with their many negative trends (and they are BIG are they not?) or the many positive trends of L’Ami/CS who just happened to run in last years GN.
Plase note that L’Ami does qualify in full as he fell last year (being placed the year before can count as a positive). The French think i never bought into – so poor old Wacky – i start with Butlers Cabin as my NO 2 (French) and end up with L’Ami as my joint No 2 (French!!)- its going to happen one day you just know it is – maybe not this year but some time soon.
But in all honesty its Rambo all the way for me – if he dosnt fall or get brought down (hope he takes the outside route and says in the middle rather than the back with the ground good or so – speed needed on Saturday) I can see him cruising in that pack of eight or so in the last mile or so.
Come on Rambooooooooooo – bring it on!!
#1664
April 1st, 2009 10:41
The reason i asked systemsman is because all of the figures for the number of bets are all multiples of 23 which i find quite odd!!!
The only way the L’ami figure makes sense to me is if it isn’t really L’ami’s number of bets but the total of all the other horses bets and for some reason it has been labelled up wrong.
#1665
April 1st, 2009 10:42
Prime number – spooky
#1666
April 1st, 2009 10:46
Plus it is L’ami’s current number
#1667
April 1st, 2009 10:56
Going by Betfair If you add up the money staked on the horses that are on the RP market watch list (excluding L’ami) and then take that figure away from all money staked it gives approximately 3 times as much as what has been staked on My Will.
So going by that i think its safe to say there is an error on the RP site and number of bets for L’ami should read number of bets for all other horses
#1668
April 1st, 2009 10:57
I can’t make sense of it either. L’Ami may tick a lot of right boxes but he looks a very doubtful stayer to me. He appeared not to get the trip in ’07 and his brothers Kelami and Innox both had their stamina limitations exposed in the race.
Some say that him appearing to see out the 3m7f over the X-Country course is evidence that he stays but i’m not sure it’s a sufficient test of stamina, as it’s run at a slow pace. The X-Country this year was won in 8m47s but the 4-miler the next day, which is a furlong further, was run a full 22s faster. If the ground is riding good on Saturday (looking very likely) they will probably run the National in around 9m10-9m20s, roughly. So L’Ami will have to run much faster than he has been doing of late and I don’t think he has the stamina to go 4m4f at that speed.
#1669
April 1st, 2009 11:01
Does Miinnehoma’s 1st, 2nd or 3rd strike rate in chases change anything? 18/18 at 40% plus isn’t it?
Irish or GB bred. I’m sure Brian remarked about this re ‘FR’ breds.
Since Earth Summit the only GB bred has been Red Marauder.
Pablo, noticed you’re remark about possible bet on Black Apalachi. Me too. Could be fly in the ointment! He’s s few pounds well in isn’t he? He went up for his Becher win but he won again of course after weights came out.
Hear The Echo attracting support. Isn’t he 8lbs wrong in the weights?
Lots of questions!
But I do have one answer for Wacky. Last Suspect was the last winner to pull up in his last race. Some of his profile was 3 preps- 12P; 25 days since last run. Won at 29f and twice 3rd in Irish National(how the hell was he 50/1!!)
Just for you Wacky, others that didn’t complete in last forty years;
Red Rum UR in last prep in 74
Rhyme N Reason F in 88
Red Marauder F in 01
#1670
April 1st, 2009 11:05
State Of Play has the mythical 13, Papillon! Cornish 25, Darkness 29, Rambling 31. The odds have it!
#1671
April 1st, 2009 11:15
Good afternoon my brethren.
I was just watching Racing News at work, and shortly after they mention they will have an interview with Keith Reveley I get called into a meeting (words can’t describe how gutted I was).
Anyway, I was just wondering if anyone watched it and could relay any quotes. If not, it might be put up on the ATR website later today.
Speaking of ATR, their new tipster (who I must say so far has been quite a shrewd judge) has picked out Rambo as his main bet for the National.
Come on Rambo!!!
#1672
April 1st, 2009 11:16
Brian! L’Ami at no23! no of bets all multiples of 23! when I told my partner just now, they were looking at frame 23!!!
#1673
April 1st, 2009 11:24
So with all this talk about number 23 im going to stop off at the bookies tonight and place a bet on L’ami as i find it all too much of a coincidence………….
My bet is that L’ami will not go any further than fence number 23.
#1674
April 1st, 2009 11:25
“My bet is that L’ami will not go any further than fence number 23.”
He’ll be sending out distress signals after going 23f.
#1675
April 1st, 2009 11:33
Think you are right,I am not betting on L’Ami, after fancying his chances early, this year only incidently, something has always worried me enough to hold out, I waited til his cheltenham run and went against him there, backed GC, and as I have said before its weird he looks like he could give more in the end of the race, but GC breezes past and after the finish GC is breathing normally like he could go round again! and L’Ami is puffing away. He has his own mind about jumping occasionally, always runs with his head back never seems to know where the finish is, jockey not in control?….probably win now…must resist…
#1676
April 1st, 2009 11:39
Germany/ France refusing to agree more money for banks in G20(too right in my book, something like £23,000 a-head now for pop. of GB given to banks) State Of Play is German/French! Bloody hell 23 again!
#1677
April 1st, 2009 11:41
Crisp regarding the GB v’s Ire v’s Fr bred the study i done was on how often they all got placed and not won.
I started it from 2000 as that is when believe the french had started taking trying to win the national that bit more serious (although depending on your outlook that year could be different as they would of needed to start a lot earlier than the year they were due to race, if that makes sense, so further study would need to be done)
But in short i found our that the irish were the most succesfull in getting a horse placed (1,2,3 or 4th) then the french followed closely by the british bred horses.
Haven’t got the exact figures on me although they are on the other blog but it worked out that irish bred horses were twice as succesfull to get a place based on the number of runners they had and that the french bred horses were slightly better than the british.
I dont use this stat to rule any horses out i use this stat for the exact opposite reason to keep them in.
I see no logic in the french bred argument and this fact proves it too me.
People bang on about the french breds but no-one is saying state of play wont win because its welsh.
The reason they dont win is for other reasons and not because they dont chase leprechauns around fields all day or sit on the ar5e5 watching Jeremy Kyle.
(if that causes offence to any irish or english people then i do apologise but im just trying to get the point across that its now’t to do with where they are born its to do with how they are trained)
p.s. im english and no i dont watch Jeremy Kyle.
Oh and i know you weren’t knocking the french breds there Crisp im just stopping the argument before someone tries to start it
#1678
April 1st, 2009 11:50
HTE started the day at around 18s on Betfair and has been pushed out to 24s. I’ll be keeping an eye on that.
#1679
April 1st, 2009 11:51
Cheers, Brian. I recently read somewhere that a lot of people in the horse breeding/trainer business bemoaning the lack in class of staying GB chasers. The GN results of the past ten years seem to confirm that. I think there getting the FR bred mix right and after all Iris De Balme FR won Scots Nat, 33f. I we’re all sitting here in ten years time I think GB could be a negative!
#1680
April 1st, 2009 11:55
I take note of the french bred stats but it is one of my lesser ones. No-one can tell me that L’Aventure does not stay!
#1681
April 1st, 2009 12:02
Speedyseagull says:
April 1, 2009 at 11:55 AM
I take note of the french bred stats but it is one of my lesser ones. No-one can tell me that L’Aventure does not stay!
Without getting into a big debate about it speedy but i cant help wonder if thats how you feel then why do you take any note of it?
#1682
April 1st, 2009 12:14
brooklyn all 33s now, was just going to top up on 40s, hmm
The horses I keep coming back to while considering my final bet are Darkness and II have some value still too. Think I got to jump in now certainly with the dark one as all in the blue. Who loves the good ground?
#1683
April 1st, 2009 12:16
maybe I should ignore the value and find any winners left!
#1684
April 1st, 2009 12:19
I wonder if you guys could be of assistance i am looking to have one final EW bet to cover my more favour bets, i am down to SOP, Darkness and Southern Vic and am struggling on which one to choose! Any thoughts?
#1685
April 1st, 2009 12:20
And by the way guys just read Graham Lee should be fine for Saturday, Come On KB!!
#1686
April 1st, 2009 12:24
can’t write off those 3, same problem as me its lucky dip time really. If you can’t seperate them at this stage you have to go with final factor… weather… and thats all up in the air! looks like Good now, but how much rain going to fall on course friday night? if its prolonged til 3pm? how much difference will that make???
#1687
April 1st, 2009 12:28
I think the ground is favouring SOP or Darkness! But if we get some rain and i think we will the Southern Vic has a great shout! Saying that they are watering the track! Might have to just do the old pick one out of a hat trick!
#1688
April 1st, 2009 12:32
Sammo if it was a level headed EW I’d go for SOP. A little extra weight, but a total class act and runs best fresh. Darko tons potential but not as reliable or proven class as SOP in big race field. SV not in greatest form and ground is now a no no.
#1689
April 1st, 2009 12:37
I think it will be on the soft side of good and will be described as “perfect, save racing ground” during the morning of the race. With the watering, I think this will favour Rambo and could go against real fast ground lovers such as Parsons. Does anyone agree that the quicker the ground is, the more likely the 11st 1 stat could go this year?
#1690
April 1st, 2009 12:42
General impression for weather seems to be foggy but sunny on Fri, light rain during night and Sat morn. Think this will just keep course to current Good/Good to soft prob need no watering on Fri night/Sat.
Thurs is a sunny scorcher
#1691
April 1st, 2009 12:43
Think SOP it is then, i was siding with him anyway but just needed some confirmation! Cheers and good luck everyone! Im gonna try and relax till sat now feel like my heads gonna explode with all the information!
#1692
April 1st, 2009 12:49
Brian – I take a slight bit of notice of it as most of these stats tend to be consistent year on year. It would not put me off backing a horse as such but if, for example, I had 2 horses which I just could not seperate and only wanted to back one, the french bred stat could be the deciding vote
#1693
April 1st, 2009 12:50
GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPS LEAGUE CLOSES TONIGHT!!
Think we would all agree it would be great to have our final table and analysis to hand tomorrow, rather than to hand on Friday when we’re all running about like headless chickens (as if). So final table and analysis will be posted up tonight shortly after midnight.
The table will close tonight at 12 midnight!
Cast your final votes my luvlies!
Tonight of course I will be posting up my Top 6 before deadline too
#1694
April 1st, 2009 13:17
Weight. 11-4 or less 25/25.
Since ’90 (when fences were modified)no horse has carried more than 12lbs more than bottom weight/ 11lbs less than top weight
Mr Frisk -6 lbs more than bottom weight/ 17 less than top
Seagram – 6 more than b/w /18 less than top
Party Politics – 7 more / 14 less
Miinnehoma – 8 more / 16 less
Royal Athlete – 6 more / 18 less
Rough Quest – 7 more / 14 less
Lord Gyllene – technically bottom weight/ 22 less
Earth Summit – 6 more /22 less
Bobbyjo – tech. bottom weight/ 23 less
Papillon – 12 more / 16 less
Red Maruader – 11 more / 13 less
Bindaree – 4 more / 22 less
Montys Pass – 7 more / 19 less
Amberleigh House- 10 more / 16 less
Hedgehunter – 10 more / 11 less
Numbersixvalverde – 4 more / 18 less
Silver Birch – 4 more/ 20 less
Comply Or Die – 2 more / 17 less
So if 10-5 is bottom weight then 11-3 would fit in parameters of last 18 GN but 11-10 is top and no GN winner has given less than 11lbs to top weight since 90, 18/18.
25/25 the GN will carry 11-4 or less
18/18 the GN winner will carry 10-13 or less
#1695
April 1st, 2009 13:18
Weather and Going.
Ok people. I’m going to stick my neck out and suggest that the ground come 4:15 saturday will be soft (or very close). No rain due Thursday/Friday but they’ll be watering. We then have what looks like a seriously heavy downpour heading in Friday night into Saturday morning.
My main bet (like the majority here) is on Rambo who shouldn’t be put off by the going. I will now be dedicating my remaining stat checking time to finding a lightweight soft ground lover. Any spring immediately to mind?
#1696
April 1st, 2009 13:19
Lots of bottoms and tops in above post hope everything makes sense.
#1697
April 1st, 2009 13:21
Phil P weather suggest light rain not downpour (sites I read anyway), then they won’t need to do watering. After 7 /8 days of dry, good weather I cannot see going to be soft.
I think will Good/Good to Soft.
#1698
April 1st, 2009 13:23
Ahh right speedy. got you.
You dont use it to narrow the field down just as a way of flipping a coin between two horses who are equally the same apart from breeding.
You racist Basta…. lol only joking.
That does lead to an interesting question tho how do people decide on which horse to pick if they can only choose one more but cant decide between 2?
I normally go for the one with the bigger odds as the way i look at it is if its a straight forward 50/50 split between them i want more value on the times i choose correct to cover the times when i choose wrong.
If there both the same odds i choose the one that has travelled the furthest. No real reason behind it apart from it takes the decision out of my hands, its just the way i have always done it. saves getting the pin out and jabbing it into a paper.
and before some smart ar53 comes on then no it has never happened and i doubt that i will ever have to choose between 2 horses who are equally the same, from the same stable and who have the exact same odds
#1699
April 1st, 2009 13:28
re the breeding aspect, wasn’t Roselier French but stood in Ireland, so his progeny were classed as Irish bred?
#1700
April 1st, 2009 13:36
maureen says:
April 1, 2009 at 1:28 PM
re the breeding aspect, wasn’t Roselier French but stood in Ireland, so his progeny were classed as Irish bred?
Theres a lot like that Maureen. 5 out of the past 10 winners have got french blood in them if you only go back as far as there grandparents and 20% of the winners have at least 1 french parent.
Butlers cabin has no french parents but is classed as french as thats where he was born.
But the non-frenchies brigade overlook them facts to make it easier for them to narrow down the field. Its was a bit like when someone said last year a 10 year old wouldn’t win as there has never been 3 ten year olds win it in a row.
They fail to mention that the last time two ten year olds won it back to back it was followed up by a 7 year old winning.
Right im having a bad day as it is please can we not get started back on the french / non-french debate. God I hope a french one wins this year, it will be worth losing the cash just for it too happen
#1701
April 1st, 2009 13:47
It’ll be interesting to see how the stats add up after Saturday; this race used to be so easy to narrow down the field, even easier with once a year punters backing horses with nice names.it’s getting harder and harder each year. I find that I use the stats when it suits me and find ways to ignore them when they don’t say what I want them to! At the moment I can’t see the wood for the trees.
#1702
April 1st, 2009 13:53
Someone mentioned it earlier in the blog about there is now provision to bypass fences 1-12/17-28 if need be. I think the accident to Mick Fitzgerald this year has brought this about. The paramedics had to make a choice within four minutes whether to move him or not a decision which could have, potentially, paralysed him. Sounds like a great idea ….
except this is Britain. We like to make things difficult for ourselves.
Do you remember how they tried to ‘bollard off’ the chair in 93 to stop the race? The jockeys kept on going. They had to, it’s the GN! In the past they’ve blocked off half a fence and it seems to work. A jockey can work with that, happens all the time. Block a fence off and what do you do then? Do you go round it and then get disqualified? I presume they will have a ‘coded’ system , red bollards miss the fence completely; yellow stick to this side of the bollards.
(Feel free to use this system Aintree, by the way, a free ticket to get in next year will suffice!)
Where was I … yes, you can imagine what’ll happen. Wrong bollards will go down… chaos. VOID.
#1703
April 1st, 2009 13:59
i think a french bred will win fairly soon and i didnt realise butlers cabin isnt french sired. it does show you can take stats too literally and i may re-think him for a place only.
#1704
April 1st, 2009 14:04
nice work KcrispY i bet your head is about to snap crackle and pop lol.
what that shows is the average less than top weight is 17-18lbs,for the last 18 years.this year being 11.10 that would make the ideal of 10.6 – 10.7 which is about what you would want and expect would’nt you say.
#1705
April 1st, 2009 14:08
WHAT A LOAD OF BOLLARDS CRISP.
#1706
April 1st, 2009 14:13
Exactly.
#1707
April 1st, 2009 14:17
Anyone priced up for a false start this year?
#1708
April 1st, 2009 14:22
The bypassing of fences is a good idea on paper with respect to loose horses as in theory the loose horses should go around the fence and not try to jump, although the realistic side of it is just wait and see how many horses get carried out by a loose horse suddenly spotting that they dont need to jump as there’s a nice easy path around the side and change direction right in front of a horse.
So to me the sensible idea would be too have moveable barriers and if a jockey goes down move it to an angle so it filters the horses into the bypass section and if there is no jockey down then move it so it filters horses into the fence.
#1709
April 1st, 2009 14:24
Hi All.
Posted this up on new thread page also, to ensure our ‘lil tipsters are in the loop.
May the best Top 6 Tipster win
GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPS LEAGUE CLOSES TONIGHT!!
Think we would all agree it would be great to have our final table and analysis to hand tomorrow, rather than to hand on Friday when we’re all running about like headless chickens (as if). So final table and analysis will be posted up tonight shortly after midnight.
The table will close tonight at 12 midnight!
Cast your final votes my luvlies!
Tonight of course I will be posting up my Top 6 before deadline too
#1710
April 1st, 2009 14:36
Bollards if you do.. bollards if you don’t
#1711
April 1st, 2009 14:46
Brian, I like the filtering idea. Probably still go wrong though! I can just hear the unlucky McCoy being interviewed next year; Yeah, Butlers was tanking along and then we got filtered out three from home …
#1712
April 1st, 2009 14:54
I’m sure trainer Nick Williams is a top bloke but listen to what his wife said about Maljimar;
‘… not to put too a fine a point on it, he went absolutely nuts in the build-up to the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham….’
and they want this down at the starting line on Saturday!
#1713
April 1st, 2009 14:59
Crisp,
To be fair she does go on to say that he coped much better at The Festival and he ran a great race there. Having backed him it is a bit of a worry though.
#1714
April 1st, 2009 15:26
Crisp – Thanks for the weights table. Really interesting and may save
me putting some last minute panic money on State of Play. Don’t
worry, I won’t in any way blame you if he does run up!
#1715
April 1st, 2009 15:35
OK apart from the heavy weight issue (as we’ve all said, good going may see that stat go this year), that aside (whether we agree or not), what do we all make of that late entrant into the frame – the one we all thought at issue of weights would not go forward into the Big Race – HEAR THE ECHO.
Some edited, short, summarised thoughts would be helpful. Ta in adavance
#1716
April 1st, 2009 15:47
have been watching atr today interviews with silver birches trainer and rambos trainer . also black apalachis trainer
lots of plusses on the rambo front from various people today.
#1717
April 1st, 2009 15:57
Hear The Echo – from a trends point of view apart from the weight he has fell/UR 3 times. there’s only one bit of form at any sort of distance – albeit a pretty good one – and that off 10st. Having now had 3 hurdle races and one uncompleted chase where has enough improvement come from to win the Grand National with 11st 5lb. if i had been on my list for further consideration i might have questioned the longer 4m+ trip and whether the ground is ideal.
#1718
April 1st, 2009 16:03
Excellent work on that weights table Crisp. I still think that the relevant stat to use from that is the lbs above bottom weight and to ignore the lbs below top weight. As, if you think about it, say that nothing has won carrying lower than 11lbs below top weight is the same as saying that nothing has won carrying over 11st 1lb; as the top weight is a constant (before this year). It’s the bottom weight that fluctuates and changes each year, it isn’t fixed. So to me that is the more useful tool. That’s how I see it anyway.
Incidently, does anyone know if Totesport is the only online bookie that you can do the Exacta and Trifecta with?
#1719
April 1st, 2009 16:10
I haven’t seen anything about the fences. Surely if horses can run round the fences loose horses will do so but then veer left after the fence to rejoin the other horses [as horses tend to do] and then veer to the right so as not to jump the next fence.
#1720
April 1st, 2009 16:16
RE – x-country races. It annoys me how people compare them to other races and say how slow they are. Yes they aren’t the quality of the other races. But have you seen what they’re jumping? They got wedges and mounds and double fences etc. Its not a normal race, their stopping and starting all the time. So saying its 22 secs slower to me doesn’t really have much bearing. We are all aware that they aren’t the same quality but its difficult to base two entirely different races on times. You wouldn’t compare a hurdles race times with a chase race times. Or a flat race times with a hurdles race.
Ells
1
#1721
April 1st, 2009 16:39
Last bets went on today. Still managed to get 22/1 on L’Ami with WH amazing.
Now its the quiet before the storm and what a strom it will be when Rambo “storms” up the finishing straight to win the 2009 GN (or Darkness or L’Ami).
I just hope its a trends horse that wins and Rambo for us all.
Getting nervous now – you can tell.
#1722
April 1st, 2009 16:44
ive been on the kalms since xmas …. i hope i dont boli over before the big race on sat …!
#1723
April 1st, 2009 16:44
Systems what’s your thoughts on HTE?
Didn’t give much attention, except early on, then with Mouse’s negative comments after weights, thought like many that HTE was a likley NR.
What do you make of him? Know you have him on an early bet. Weight and form an obv no no, but what’s the rest of your viewpoint?
#1724
April 1st, 2009 16:45
Any word on Kelami sb? Haven’t heard a dickie..
#1725
April 1st, 2009 16:50
does anybody know how heavy this shower will be on fri – ?the banana skin is all the money just now coming for good ground horses – if this rainfall is heavy then could it be that the southern vics and kilbeggan blades of this world are now overpriced and theres value to be had because the ground turns soft because of the watering and the shower .? – and conversely parsons legacy and darkness could find themselves stuck in a splodge on sat ?
#1726
April 1st, 2009 16:57
Here you go Silver Birch…
FRIDAY
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=L9&day=2
SATURDAY
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=L9&day=3
#1727
April 1st, 2009 16:59
bet365 let you do exacta and trifectas on the tote
can’t remember who was asking.
#1728
April 1st, 2009 17:03
For what its worth and its only my personal opinion I will be very surprised if the GN ground was not Good (with some Gd/Sft patches due to watering)- it will not be Gd/Sft or Soft or Heavy – stop dreamimg you SV lovers and pinpickers!!
Just look out the window sun, sun and more sun and more tomorrow!
The winner wil be a class horse with plenty of speed (TS 130++ or more) thats likes/can handle Good ground (just like Rambo, Darkness and L’Ami).
#1729
April 1st, 2009 17:04
Systems your view on HTE?
#1730
April 1st, 2009 17:12
Hi Systems man – as you know im a big fan of your work but ive a question to ask on southern vic … how do know for sure this horse wont go on good to soft ..simply because ted and ruby think so . but given hes never run on anything other than soft or heavy , how on earth can anyone be categorically sure . this has similarities with silver birch . a lot of people put their red pen through him because they thought the ground was too fast for him … so im not fully convinced that southern vic is a lost cause here .. there doesnt seem to be much tangible evidence , seems to be more based on peoples opinions …im not giving up on him yet unless father teds dcides not to run him in which case that may make things a bit harder…!
#1731
April 1st, 2009 17:24
According to my ratings Locksmith is no 33/1 for Red Rum Handicap tomorrow
Time to get stuck into a tasty price!
#1732
April 1st, 2009 17:58
Also fancy Whinstone Boy and Sunnyhillboy (saver) in the Handicap Hurdle
#1733
April 1st, 2009 18:02
Locksmith was tipped at a preview I went to last night.
#1734
April 1st, 2009 18:22
Views on HtE? Before the weights, I thought he was a great bet. I think he’s over his jumping issues and has been really aimed at saturday’s race. Even with the hike in weight, he was given less than Notre Pere who he beat 16l in the Irish GN. Everything going for him and if he had 11-0, he’d be my nr 1 choice by a distance. By the way, the “only carrying 10 stone in the Irish National” is wrong. He carried 7lb overweight so was running on level terms with Notre Pere at 10-7. He gave Priests Leap 3lb and a 50l beating. Sure, the Irish National is his only real piece of form, but surely, it’s the most relevant to the Aintree race and he’s been covered up since. Anyway, I put across the above arguements before the weights and have been a bit quiet since because 11-5 is always going to be a tough ask but if a heavyweight’s going to win, why not him? Hope so as he’s my second biggest winner after Rambo!
#1735
April 1st, 2009 18:54
To be fair Notelppa – Notre Pere’s very best form is on softer ground – as he proved convincingly at Welsh GN off 11’0 (giving Cornish Sett almost a stone in weight) as a 7 year old and then followed up only 5L behind Neptune Collonges at levels – he was a seriously good handicapper – difficult to see where he goes next really
#1736
April 1st, 2009 18:55
But HTE wouldn’t be a shock winner – not as much of a shock as Darkness or L’Ami in my book
#1737
April 1st, 2009 19:45
I see Ruby has chosen to ride to Star De Mohaison instead of Denman??? Whas all that about??
#1738
April 1st, 2009 19:57
maureen says:
April 1, 2009 at 6:02 PM
Locksmith was tipped at a preview I went to last night.
Positive vibes – sounds good to me
#1739
April 1st, 2009 20:13
Laying My Will at 9.4 on Betfair – Yay or nay?
#1740
April 1st, 2009 20:30
“silver birch says:
April 1, 2009 at 5:12 PM
Hi Systems man – as you know im a big fan of your work but ive a question to ask on southern vic … how do know for sure this horse wont go on good to soft ..simply because ted and ruby think so . but given hes never run on anything other than soft or heavy , how on earth can anyone be categorically sure .”
Reply:
Well I ran a complete record of all the leading runners and then gave them a score for Good and Good/Soft from 0 to 5 stars.
You are right SV has not run on Good but why? Probably beacuse it likes Soft and Heavy! – its what his record clearly tells us – we cant just ignore it can we? He does however have one race (just one)that indicates he may be able to handle Gd/Sft which is why i gave him a star for this.
Take note Southern Vic is the second highest in the Red on Oddschecker.com and his price has dropped for the last three nights. He is on 24pts only Big Fella Thanks has a higher Red score on 25! NOw I think that is trying to tell us something dont you?
Still Number 7 in my short list with possible place prospects if he can handle the ground a bit but that still leaves 6 with better chances!! (and there are bound to be one or two on 11.00ish with good place propects also)
#1741
April 1st, 2009 20:31
Matriarch says:
April 1, 2009 at 7:45 PM
I see Ruby has chosen to ride to Star De Mohaison instead of Denman??? Whas all that about??
Owners staying loyal to Sam after the GC, Sam has a pretty good record on the horse.
#1742
April 1st, 2009 20:38
Systemsman says:
April 1, 2009 at 8:30 PM
Take note Southern Vic is the second highest in the Red on Oddschecker.com and his price has dropped for the last three nights. He is on 24pts only Big Fella Thanks has a higher Red score on 25! NOw I think that is trying to tell us something dont you?
That Ruby chose MW? Jockeys don’t always get these things right though, ie. Gold Cup last year. As SB says his namesake never struggled in Good’ish ground at Aintree and he was a reported soft ground specialist.
Just watched Darkness at Newbury again on RuK crashing through some of the easy fences their, can’t help feeling he is going to give his supporters some really nervous moments on Saturday gets so low over them, still Snowy brushed up on his dodgy jumping so some horses do seem to rise to the challenge of the national fences.
#1743
April 1st, 2009 21:03
Follow the money – an alternative to trends:
Blue – going down in price (positve trend)
Red – going up in price (negative trend)
From Oddschecker.com
Last nights leading scores:
Blues – Positive: Top Six
1. Darkness 29 (in top 3 for last four days)
2. Pasons Legacy 27 (mainly last two days)
3. Cornish Sett 24 (only 2pts today)
4. Irish Invader 24 (only 2pts today)
5. Hear the Echo 21 (mainly last two days)
6. State of Play 21
Reds- Negative; Top 4
Big Fella Thanks 19
Southern Vic 17
Silver Birch 13
Cloudy Lane 11
TONIGHT
Blues – Positive: Top Six
1. Parsons Legacy 37pts – up 1 placement
2. Darkness 34pts – down 1 placement
3. Irish Invader 28pts – up 1
4. Cornish Sett 25pts – down 1
5. Maljimar 23pts – new entry
6. Hear the Echo 21pts – down 1 (no pts today)
6. Brooklyn Brownie 21pts – new entry
For info:
Rambling Minister 11pts – no change from yesterday (but note not one Red in last 3 days)
Reds – Negative: Top 4
1. Big fella Thanks 25pts – no change
2. Southern Vic 24pts – no change
3. Silver Birch 15pts – no change
4. Cloudy Lane 13pts – no change
Red notes on some fancied runners:
My Will 3pts (first reds!)
Cornish Sett 6pts
Himalayan Trail 9pts
Black Apalachi 12pts
L’Ami 9pts
Conclusion:
Pasons Legacy (over last three days) and Darkness (over last four days) continue to attract support as does Irish Invader (mainly three and four days ago).
Rambo continues to hold its own with no reds over the last three days (I woud expect to see more blue Friday evenng/Saturday morning).
Himalayan Trail (9pts) and Cornish Sett (6pts) have now picked up a few Red points. Both BFT and Southern Vic are friendless!! (take note).
#1744
April 1st, 2009 21:19
I still remember the huge overnight punt on Papillon a few years ago, and am keeping an eye on Irish Invader!
#1745
April 1st, 2009 21:22
This is the last top6 list I can find posted yesterday @9.38 by Johnny Valentine, there is a further top6 posted @9.15 by lukiman was not added, correct me if I am wrong but I can’t find anything after that.
Thought I’d like to contribute, been holding off as need a top 11 really! still!
have a runner loyalty issue here too I think, but for what its worth heres 6 of em, Rambo!
Rambo
Brooklyn Brownie
Black Apalachi
Comply or Die
Cornish
State of Play
Rambling Minster 184
Kilbeggan Blade 85
Himalayan Trail 72
State of Play 61
Darkness 55
Parsons Legacy 53
Irish Invader 28
Cornish Sett 30
Irish Invader 26
Brooklyn Brownie 29
Southern Vic 23
my will 16
Butlers Cabin 17
Black Apalachi 15
War of Attrition 8
Comply or Die 10
Offshore Account 6
Knowhere 6
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
Hear the Echo 3
L’Ami 2
Snowy Morning 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
hope this is right now, interesting how Irish Invader has II scores!?!
#1746
April 1st, 2009 21:23
“Showlad says:
April 1, 2009 at 5:04 PM
Systems your view on HTE?”
Reply
OR 153 – too much weight
PRP 158 – good
TS 133 – OK but from Dec2006 (not good)
Good ground – no problem
Best RPR this season 131 in Hurdle.
No 1/2/3 in Chase at 25f or more (or even 24f)
3 wins from 14 (just good enought).
Conclusion:
Too much weight. No form this season. NO 1/2/3 this season. Best TS 133 was from Dec 2006!
Not in my Pre-Christams winners profile list (too high OR)
Wont win – sorry (yes i do have a very early bet on him)
#1747
April 1st, 2009 21:29
I see you are selective as ever with those that you ‘deign’ to give a reply to Systemsman. No worries I won’t pose you another Q this year.
#1748
April 1st, 2009 21:31
I added lukimans scores too by the way!
changed my mind already on my top6, the horses the order, aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh!
#1749
April 1st, 2009 21:34
Rambling Minster 6
State Of Play 5
Black Apalachi 4
Snowy Morning 3
Comply Or Die 2
Southern Vic 1
Rambling Minster 190
Kilbeggan Blade 85
Himalayan Trail 72
State of Play 66
Darkness 55
Parsons Legacy 53
Irish Invader 28
Cornish Sett 30
Brooklyn Brownie 29
Irish Invader 26
Southern Vic 24
Black Apalachi 19
Butlers Cabin 17
My Will 16
Comply or Die 12
War of Attrition 8
Offshore Account 6
Knowhere 6
Snowy Morning 5
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
Hear the Echo 3
L’Ami 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1750
April 1st, 2009 21:41
I’am only human Showlad – I do have to eat and go to the poo sometimes even if the GN is 24/7 at the moment. The reply is higher up. Hope you win.
#1751
April 1st, 2009 21:44
As I remember Maureen, Papillon, was available at 33s on the morning of the race in 2000 – yet went off at 10s.
Re: Darkness – this horse could run through 30 brick walls and still finish, but surely it will take its toll? That’s why I think he’ll fade just as Rambling Minster is getting down to business. The horse will be punch drunk!!
With a couple of fences to go though it could be Rambo v The Terminator…
P.S. Not a sniff of rain at Aintree today or forecast for the next few days. You can expect a band of rain passing over Liverpool quickly early on Saturday. However, unless it rains within a few hours of ‘off time’ then I think it will remain good overall and good/soft on a couple of stretches of the course.
#1752
April 1st, 2009 21:45
Back to the weight, something very interesting. Is it how much more they carry than bottom weight or how much less they carry than top? I think both matter.
Since the modification of fences all winners have been in the bottom half of the handicap! which this year, if bottom weight is 10-5, would be 11-0 or less- 9lbs more than bottom/10lbs less than top.
#1753
April 1st, 2009 22:03
I asked before, isn’t Hear The Echo 8lbs wrong in the handicap? Was 145 but Phil Smith put him in on 153, is that right?
#1754
April 1st, 2009 22:05
KJ thanks for kicking Top 6 Tips League into touch!
Final table, analysis and new chart with comparison to last stage of League posted up tonight after midnight
#1755
April 1st, 2009 22:13
Admin – now have a link to here from my site racingrascal.com as promised. It’s a very new site but updated today and your feedback as well as everyone’s here is much desired. Currently have my city visiting but would like you there too. If you’ve recently visited then the fence by fence is now updated and so have my runners and riders comments. A sweepstake kit will hopefully be available tommorrow or now by e-mail – called_andryka@yahoo.co.uk.
Will post my final thoughts here before Saturday.
#1756
April 1st, 2009 22:23
Hi ‘lil rascal went to racingrascal.com and took me to a site that’s not your one, unless I’m mistaken….
#1757
April 1st, 2009 22:24
Rambling Minster 6
State of Play 5
Cornish Sett 4
Comply or Die 3
Parsons Legacy 2
Himalayan Trail 1
Rambling Minster 196
Kilbeggan Blade 85
Himalayan Trail 73
State of Play 71
Darkness 55
Parsons Legacy 55
Cornish Sett 34
Irish Invader 28
Brooklyn Brownie 29
Irish Invader 26
Southern Vic 24
Black Apalachi 19
Butlers Cabin 17
My Will 16
Comply or Die 15
War of Attrition 8
Offshore Account 6
Knowhere 6
Snowy Morning 5
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
Hear the Echo 3
L’Ami 2
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
#1758
April 1st, 2009 22:26
i went on it, looks like its the right one, nice site fella
#1759
April 1st, 2009 22:32
betfair banner at the top, bit of an intro and links across the top? should take you there if you click on my name here.
#1760
April 1st, 2009 22:33
thank you matt!
#1761
April 1st, 2009 22:37
Yer… got it now ‘lil rascal
Congratulations 
I typed in address w/o the www. which normally still takes you to the site anyway, but racingrascal.com alone goes to somewhere else entirely.
With the full http://www.racingrascal.com I got there to your site.
Well done Rascal! Lovely ‘lil site. Logo is cool, can’t wait to explore more fully
#1762
April 1st, 2009 22:44
can i just confirm the negatives of SOP, im torn to be honest
#1763
April 1st, 2009 22:51
Right, I’ll finally post my top 6. Not gonna make many changes from my top 6 to win as if they have a good chance of winning then suurely they have a good chance of placing. However I have some – eg. COD that I think are faves for a place but wont win and then others – eg. Darkness which I feel will either be top 2 or be miles behind. Hence why I’ve had trouble selecting a top 6. Anyways here it is, based on predictions for the top 6 to finish:
1. Rambling Minster – 6
2. L’ami – 5
3. Parsons Legacy – 4
4. Comply or Die – 3 (wont win but has to be up there for a place)
5. Cornish Sett – 2
6. Brooklyn Brownie – 1
Darkness misses out due to unlikelihood of placing if not winning. However he would be in top 3 or 4 to win.
Current Table:
Rambling Minster 196 <—wow!
Kilbeggan Blade 85 <—–boooo
Himalayan Trail 72 <—–boooo
State of Play 66
Parsons Legacy 57
Darkness 55
Irish Invader 28 <—- boooo
Cornish Sett 32
Brooklyn Brownie 30
Irish Invader 26 <—- Two appearances? Someone’s already flagged this, which 1 to take out though?
Southern Vic 24
Black Apalachi 19
Butlers Cabin 17 <—- boooo
My Will 16
Comply or Die 15
War of Attrition 8 <—- He will have a job.
L’Ami 7
Offshore Account 6
Knowhere 6
Snowy Morning 5
Silver Birch 3
Battlecry 3
Hear the Echo 3
Fleet Street 1
Hot Weld 1
Ells
1
#1764
April 1st, 2009 22:54
most of us are – state of play has not been seen since boxing day when finishing fourth of eight, was behind cloudy lane in third though on better terms now. Weight and time out are main negatives but my main worry is that he can run too freely and won’t see the distance ultimately. Big threat to main selections though.
#1765
April 1st, 2009 22:58
cheers rascal, still not sure if i want to give him my money or not
#1766
April 1st, 2009 22:58
Well what could be the final posting up of our Top 6 Tips…
Here goes..
Summary: For me this year RAMBLING MINISTER may not have a bag load of tricks when it comes to performances in the traditional Nationals (eg Aintree, Irish, Scots, Welsh etc) or Henenessy’s etc, but his recent Class 1 wins, stamina, feather weight and progressive form leaves me totally unable to deny him Top Spot.
Good ground, best when fresh and TONS of class, see him most threatened for me by STATE OF PLAY and PARSON’S LEGACY. The class of DARKNESS cannot be denied, but his jumping will have to fall fortunately in all the right places (and a good bit of luck too) I feel for him to be crowned champion. However, he has to be in my 6. HIMALAYAN TRAIL still has to be considered if he catapults back into great form – being as he is the classic Spring horse. I can’t omit KILBEGGAN BLADE but feel he is more likely to run into a place, as he continues to improve, but not enough class to grab the victory.
RAMBLING MINISTER 6 POINTS
STATE OF PLAY 5 POINTS
PARSON’S LEGACY 4 POINTS
DARKNESS 3 POINTS
HIMALAYN TRAIL 2 POINTS
KILBEGGAN BLADE 1 POINT
#1767
April 1st, 2009 22:59
Will post up final table, chart changes and analysis shortly
#1768
April 1st, 2009 23:01
Great site Rascal
#1769
April 1st, 2009 23:03
showlad – you picked my 6 bets.
#1770
April 1st, 2009 23:03
Ha ha Baggy – in same order???!!!
#1771
April 1st, 2009 23:08
cant remember now but they are my only 6 bets. i am lucky they all look like runners and i sympathise with everyone who suffered a non-runner. i think in terms of winnings
rambling minster
parsons legacy
and then £20 between the rest
i dont really fancy HT or KB to win though
#1772
April 1st, 2009 23:41
OK All!!
Well after weeks of voting and changing our minds as the pieces of the puzzle fell(we hope)nicely into place, here is our collective mosaic on how it’s all going to pan out on Saturday.
We all know the reasonings only too well re our personal plusses and minuses for the horses placed in our chart.
The main changes of note are an extreme rise for HIMALAYAN TRAIL, PARSON’S LEGACY and IRISH INVADER.
Likewise it’s a similar drop in fortunes for SOUTHERN VIC, BUTLER’S CABIN and OFFSHORE ACCOUNT.
But whatever way we slice out Top 6 Tipsters Pie, his name runs through EVERY slice – WE PREDICT A HUGE WIN FOR RAMBLING MINISTER ON SATURDAY!!!! Rambling Minister has more than double the points of his nearest rival, the steadily rising KILBEGGAN BLADE.
Chart shows Final Points Standings as voted for in Stage 3, with the previous Stage 2 positions then shown in brackets, finally followed by next in brackets the horses’s original place in the chart in Stage 1 – voted for all those many weeks ago.
May the best tipster win!
I shall allocate the points to each blogger and post up the winner after the Big Race
Thanks to all – what a great combined colection of Tips we now have to refer to for the BIG DAY.
THE GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPS LEAGUE FINAL PLACINGS 2009
1. Rambling Minster 201 (1) (1)
2. Kilbeggan Blade 86 (4) (8)
3. Himalayan Trail 74 (10) (11)
4. State of Play 71 (2) (2)
5. Parsons Legacy 61 (9) (9)
6. Darkness 58 (3) (4)
7. Cornish Sett 32 (8) (6)
8. Brooklyn Brownie 30 (7) (-)
9. Irish Invader 28 (14) (-)
10. Southern Vic 24 (6) (7)
11. Black Apalachi 19 (13) (5)
12. Butlers Cabin 17 (5) (3)
13. My Will 16 (17) (16)
14. Comply or Die 15 (15) (12)
15. L’Ami 7 (12) (10)
16. Offshore Account 6 (11) (-)
17. Knowhere 6 (-) (-)
18. Snowy Morning 5 (-) (14)
19. Silver Birch 3 (-) (-)
20. Battlecry 3 (-) (-)
21. Hear the Echo 3 (-) (14)
22. Fleet Street 1 (-) (-)
#1773
April 1st, 2009 23:48
There was an interesting comment from last year where someone said after the race that they regretted not paying enough attention to current form; good for me to read it at a time when I’m trying to stop myself from having bets on Butlers Cabin, Southern Vic and Himalayan Trail [although, by Saturday I may have capitulated].By the way, I won’t put my six choices on here because I’m paranoid about bringing them bad luck if I do so.
#1774
April 1st, 2009 23:58
No worries Maureen
I know what you mean though being brave to not back horses that were strong fancies of yours initially, before they then proceeded to put in a terrible season of current form…
Be strong, be strong!!
#1775
April 2nd, 2009 00:31
Showlad,
think I’ve missed this “comp” somehow. I’d just like to record my top 6 anyway—
RAMBLING MINSTER
DARKNESS
CORNISH SETT
KILBEGGAN BLADE
BLACK APALACHI
SILVER BIRCH
#1776
April 2nd, 2009 00:53
Few anagrams for ya…
State Of Play – Fat Toy Leaps
Rambling Minster – Mint Nag Brr Smiles
Cornish Sett – Richest Tons
Kilbeggan Blade – Kebab Gelding, La
L’Ami – A Mil
Parsons Legacy – Pony Scares Gal
Irish Invader – I Vanish Rider
Comply Or Die – Poorly Medic
Himalayan Trail – Malarial Hay Nit
Others on request hehe…
#1777
April 2nd, 2009 08:01
Only an hour till the final decs now!
HTE continues to trade much bigger on Betfair than the best bookie price (26.0 compared to 16s). Something amiss?
#1778
April 2nd, 2009 08:05
What time is the final declaration today is it 9am when do you think we will get wind of the runners?
#1779
April 2nd, 2009 08:20
10am mate. The clock on this site is an hour behind.
#1780
April 2nd, 2009 08:21
What an idiot!! I had noticed that the other day as well!
#1781
April 2nd, 2009 08:49
TONY McCOY will stick with his 2008 ride Butler’s Cabin in Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree.
The 13-times champion jockey had a choice of four JP McManus-owned mounts and made his decision after a discussion with the owner’s racing manager Frank Berry on Wednesday evening.
McCoy’s rejects will be ridden as follows: Robert Thornton on L’Ami, Noel Fehily on Can’t Buy Time and Mark Walsh on Reveillez.
Dominic Elsworth, due to ride Darkness, expected to be back riding on Friday but is yet to pass the doctor.
#1782
April 2nd, 2009 08:52
LOL Staye, I’m sure this clock being an hour behind is to test our alcohol levels!!
They’re fine just now, but if Rambo comes home on Saturday, well…by around 5pm they may not be
#1783
April 2nd, 2009 08:55
Link below – great site. Now virtually NO rain forecast at all!
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp
#1784
April 2nd, 2009 08:59
If you think this clock is wrong go to the aintree website.
There’s is showing that the national starts in exactly 1 day 0 hours?????????
Suppose its one way of stopping the horses breaking the tape but really thought they could come up with a better system than that
#1785
April 2nd, 2009 09:01
Hi Brian. How are you feeling 2 days to go – Happy with your selections?
#1786
April 2nd, 2009 09:05
Has anyone seen the pictures of the “laybys” they have inserted by each fence.
All i can say is “There maybe trouble ahead” or even “i Predict a Riot”
If they honestly think 40 horses charging towards the fences and then all of a sudden have to be diverted through that gap there gonna be mayhem.
I dont think any bets are safe anymore as if a loose horse spots that and takes a few with it, God its not even worth thinking about as it will be carnage.
#1787
April 2nd, 2009 09:07
No im not happy with them. But for me thats a good thing if you know what i mean.
I usual feel that if im happy with them this close to the day then i’ve missed something as i should never be calm 2 days before the greatest day in the world.
#1788
April 2nd, 2009 09:10
Brian, Anarchy at Aintree, coming some time may be.. from the album ‘never mind the bollards’
‘Laybys’!! wacky races, catch the pigeon …
#1789
April 2nd, 2009 09:12
Nothing stressing me too much.
I’m in the same boat as Maureen though, in that there are horses I rate very highly, but who for one reason or another are hugely out on the stats (not just 1 niggly stat, but many). On these horses I will have to be strong and not place my money, believing that they will not deliver on Saturday.
As for me I’m very happy. My Top 6 (not in same order) contains the Top 6 we’ve collectively come to conclude and I REALLY believe the winner is in there.
But now you’ve got me worried that it’s not good to not be worried!!!!
#1790
April 2nd, 2009 09:14
Good Morning me Crisp – all good in the Blue Peter Garden?
2 days to go until one of those lovely 4 legged creatures gets their well deserved Blue Peter badge awarded
#1791
April 2nd, 2009 09:15
All we can hope for is that all horses, jockeys and crowd come away from it safe and well if things do go wrong.
I can understand what they were trying to do as it would help in making life changing decisions if a jockey or indeed a horse needed help. But too me it just stinks of oh! sugar we haven’t put in a system to help the injured and there’s only a couple of week to go. Lets find out if this will work.
And the short answer to that is…….
I very much doubt it but i bloody hope it does.
#1792
April 2nd, 2009 09:20
Showlad, great analysis of the table, didn’t expect anything less. Still suprised about the Blade, struggling to give him a chance but Lee is safe pair of hands. I remember Amberleigh’s National,
#1793
April 2nd, 2009 09:25
I keep dreaming about the national and every time i wake up with 5 left to jump so never get to find out who wins.
The strange apart about it is that apart from Rambling Minster i ain’t a scooby doo who the other horses are who are up there near the front.
#1794
April 2nd, 2009 09:27
Yeah excellent stuff Showlad. the only other surprise for me was L’ami being so far down.
I dont think L’ami has a chance but others obviously on here do so couldn’t work out why he was so far down.
Apart from Kilbeggan Blade i would be happy with any of the top 6 winning but obviously happiest with Rambling Minster.
#1795
April 2nd, 2009 09:28
not sure what haoppened there … anyway yeah, McGrath said something like there’s three in with a chance, but Lee kept going for it to be fair, if he’d settled for a place two out that’s all he would have got. Doesn’t seem to be much about the National on TV, I don’t know may be I’ve missed it, we used to have a ‘Sportsnight’ Special the Wednesday before, Jockeys used to turn up on Wogan’s chat show, Thursday/Friday, Blue Peter of course/I’m sure Val used to get involved, even ITV’s Jenny Handley on ‘Magpie’,I remember a programmme called ‘Splash’? and they had about six teenagers riding these Shetland Ponies with names like Grittar and Red Rum having their own little GN,’Swap Shop’ would talk about it on the Saturday morning. Come on beeb it’s the greatest horse race in the world.
#1796
April 2nd, 2009 09:29
I personally feel KB is so well supported as many feel he at least he will run into a place. He’s been super consistent. However I think it’s more an accumulation of being placed somewhere in most people’s Top 6, rather than many of us having the conviction that he will win.
HT is completely different – we either have a conviction he will spring back on Saturday and leave the opposition miles behind or we don’t rate him at all.
Weather I feel REALLY playing well now for class acts such as SOP and PL.
#1797
April 2nd, 2009 09:31
Have a look at this from the racing post. Should give you a chuckle while we ait the final forty
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/council-mispell-tribute-road-to-nijinskys-owner/175570/latest/
#1798
April 2nd, 2009 09:35
While we WAIT the final forty of course and not Ait the final forty as that would be cruel
#1799
April 2nd, 2009 09:39
That’s good Brian. And Nijinsky’s is Rambling’s great granddaddy of course.
#1800
April 2nd, 2009 09:43
Funny Brian. Lami’s support I feel was a bit like Eurovision – where only 40% of the countries get awarded the sets of points. Those that fall in the 10% below those 40% who get the votes, are very well thought of, but do not go high enough in anyone’s estimations to get any of the points awarded.
Hence L’ami I think is well thought of on this blog, but his 15th place in the table I think is made up of most people feeling he will get round and acquit himself well, but not enough to win.
#1801
April 2nd, 2009 09:44
Just read article Brian. LOL!! Lady Beaverbrook pic is bloody hilarious…’We are NOT amused’
#1802
April 2nd, 2009 09:50
Blow for Darkness backers, know nothing about this new jockey how experienced is he?:
DOMINIC ELSWORTH lost the Grand National ride on Darkness on Thursday morning after trainer Charles Egerton handed the mount to Wayne Hutchinson.
Elsworth, who suffered severe bruising in a fall last week, had been confident of being fit for the race but, having not been able to school the horse for the trainer this week, Egerton replaced him with Hutchinson.
“Sometimes you have to make a decision that may not suit everyone,” Egerton explained. “Dominic was to come into school Darkness last Saturday but wasn’t fit enough to do it. I postponed the schooling until Tuesday morning and he still wasn’t fit and was hoping rather than a definite to ride on Saturday.
“I had to make a decision that was in the best interests of the horse’s owners bearing in mind he has only one ride on Friday and not had a chance to sit on the horse, so I decided to go for Wayne.
He added: “I feel terribly sorry for Dominic but I am afraid it is one of those things. He was not fit to ride at declaration time and not riding today. He had a severe shoulder injury and has not passed the doctor yet. I could be hung out to dry.
“He’s been very genuine and honest but there is only one Grand National and I had to make a decision that was in the best interests of the horse and owner.”
#1803
April 2nd, 2009 09:56
The best part of the story is that the Racing post had Misspelled Engelhard as well in the original story.
It has been changed now due to the comments at the bottom of the story.
Oh and they had misspelled misspell
#1804
April 2nd, 2009 10:14
Paddy Power decides to push some prices out and goes 12/1 against Rambo! Could be costly for him.
#1805
April 2nd, 2009 10:24
Reveillez ridden by Mark Walsh. Obvious question, but is he related to Ruby? Has ridden quite a few winners in Ireland
#1806
April 2nd, 2009 10:39
Maljimar 1st reserve
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,294298,00.html
#1807
April 2nd, 2009 10:40
Nobody withdrawn this morning! Shocker!
MALJIMAR’S connections face an anxious wait to discover whether their nine-year-old will get a run in Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National, as the 40 horses above him in the handicap were all declared on Thursday morning.
LINKS
»Full 40 plus reserves declared for Grand National
Behind bottom-weight Zabenz, the other three reserves, in priority order, are Companero, Iron Man and Patsy Hall, and Cloudy Lane remains at the head of the weights on 11st 10lb. Narrowly missing the reserves were Niche Market, Mattock Ranger, Dix Villez and Bible Lord.
More to follow . . .
#1808
April 2nd, 2009 10:56
WHAT! Are the rules been made up as they go along.
How can Patsy Hall be above Mattock Ranger and Niche Market????
#1809
April 2nd, 2009 11:05
My top 6 in order that I’ll win a few bob (similar to Baggy and Showlad.
1. RAMBLING MINSTER (by a distance!)
2. KILBEGGAN BLADE
3. DARKNESS (decided to back this again since a previous post)
4/5. STATE OF PLAY + SOUTHER VIC
6. HIMALAYAN TRAIL
Strangely enough, my biggest winner would be Reveillez who I had £20 on at 300+ on Betfair yonks ago but I’m not expecting him to win!
After a good hard think about it, I am taking everything out above STATE OF PLAY on weight grounds. So MY WILL and everything else in that bracket are out of win bets. By the time I work through all of the other trends, not won over 3 miles, days since last rune etc. – RAMBLING MINSTER still looks the one!
#1810
April 2nd, 2009 11:11
Pleased to see that 5 of the top 6 in the final league table matched my selections.
Ground coming good for PL it seems. Price could crash on the day for this one. Would be nice to get some money back on him after last year!
#1811
April 2nd, 2009 11:19
city affair has been withdrawn from the foxhunters! and trust fund could go off favourite
if trust fund wins i may have SOP as my final pick of the many I think.
#1812
April 2nd, 2009 11:20
Right im maybe looking at this totally wrong (and hopefully so) but nerves are really setting in now so go easy on me if i have got it wrong.
I have just printed out a race card for saturday and on it has the OR’s.
Rambling Minster’s OR on the racecard i have is 149 which is too high according to the stats is it not?
I know he is weighted as OR 143 but his actual OR is 149 which would be a trend breaker would it not?
Like i say i hope i have got this wrong but could someone please let me know as the prozac has not kicked in yet and i need to calm myself down.
#1813
April 2nd, 2009 11:31
Thank you Showlad and Seagull for complimenting my site. I’ve really got into the race this year through the comments of everyone on this blog so, before we get to discover who was nearest, I would just like to a say a huge thank you to everyone who has posted here and especially the regulars. Saturday is going to be such an amazing day!
#1814
April 2nd, 2009 12:02
come on rambo,
2nd dark one
3rd k.blade
4th black ap.
5th s.o.p.
6th him.trail.
cheers and good luck to all.
roll on sat.
job done.
#1815
April 2nd, 2009 12:04
Nice list Whitearab.
I too have a massive odds small bet on Reveillez.
Was this your Top 6 tips list or a new listing?
#1816
April 2nd, 2009 12:11
Brian – I think you have nothing ro worry about on Rambling Minsters OR. The strong trend is all around OR at date the weights are published.
Showlad – that is my final list and so my top 6 too! Let’s hope Reveilez wins then!!
More seriously, I’d get more pleasure from Rambling winning than Reveillez, despite the obvious monetary difference!
#1817
April 2nd, 2009 12:18
Now the dust has settled on the ante-post market and as others are posting their final books, I shall do mine, but on a points basis.
Figures are Total Net Profit for the win;
10pts Rambling Minster
2pts Butlers Cabin
1pt Himalayan Trail (although I now think that cant win)
1pt Cornish Sett
1pt Darkness
pennies on My Will (wont win, I think) State of Play (ditto) and Parsons Legacy (ditto)
AN Other 1/2pt LOSS
No I am not picking 8 horses to win, my 4 picks are at the top (RM, BC, Darkness, CS) the others are merely historical bets. I would have laid off HT but his price is too big.
#1818
April 2nd, 2009 12:19
I got the total eebie jeebies now, think you are right Brian, not sure if the stat is relevant to weights day rather than race day, SOP is 150! Darkness is 151, BA is 153.. hope, think its weights day related as alot of us have thrown this one out the window otherwise! Try and relax Brian its not a good year for the old nerves, why is it not saturday yet!?!!! ;0
and good luck my bloggin chums!
gotta go to work..boo! so will miss the openers today, got a few runners, hope to get out of everything and run off in time for Denman, not that I’m on him, just like him, and will be a good race, enjoy today everyone!
#1819
April 2nd, 2009 12:22
Brody- jockey change could be good omen, obviously shame for Elsworth, but GN history is littered by jock taking over at last minute and winning. In recent times Bob Davies on Lucius and Carl Llewellyn on Party Politics and Earth Summit. Go the Hutch!
Brian it’s good news, Rambling is 6lbs well in, would carry 11-1 if weights were reframed counting form since weights were alloted!
#1820
April 2nd, 2009 12:24
Brian, think about those ‘laybys’ and have a good chuckle.
#1821
April 2nd, 2009 12:26
Phew, Cheers WhiteArab.
Right im off to lock myself in a cupboard til saturday dinner time as my head is spinning (but like i said earlier thats a good thing for usually)
Like the old saying goes,
Those that sit there keeping calm while others lose there heads probably dont understand the seriousness of it all
#1822
April 2nd, 2009 12:30
Having thought a lot about the horses carrying over 11st [and I'm still having a small ew on Cloudy Lane!] I think that a lot depends on the size of the horse..SoP, Ollie Magern and Cloudy lane are [I think]quite tiny, whereas horses like Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi and Hedgehunter are/were big chasing types that could carry the weight better. I can only form an opinion from seeing them on the telly and hearing the odd comment from connections. I wish, when they give the details of the horses they would give their size as well; it would, however probably only confuse me even more!I’m not happy about this business with the fences [I thought it was an April fool at first] As I said earlier, I can see loose horses diving in and out of main group, or if several go for the same gap going through the rails; I hope I’m wrong.
#1823
April 2nd, 2009 12:35
Maureen, let’s just hope that they know what they’re doing with their bypasses!
#1824
April 2nd, 2009 12:36
Don’t Panic Don’t Panic and dont tell him your name Pike.
Just as i had finished thanking WhiteArab (and the rest since then, Ta) when i got some info through regarding it.
“The 136-144 OR is for weights day, on the day itself the OR can be as high as 157 ones that are higher on weights day show that the horse is well in and the ones that are lower show that the horse is hard done by.
The ones that haven’t altered either haven’t run since weights or have just run to there current ability.”
Hope this is correct and makes sense to you all.
Well i’ve knocked the gas off and taking my head out of the oven but incase of any more scares think i’ll leave the door open ajar
Crisp dont get me started on those laybys again. I keep picturing the decision makers saying next year ‘Right chaps we have far too many pile ups at the canal turn, Who’s for a roundabout?
#1825
April 2nd, 2009 12:39
Red Rum was a tiny horse as was Bobbyjo and many other national winners, its not the size of the dog in the fight its the size of the fight in the dog! Its more to do with their attitude in a big field and getting jostled for position you see alot of horses don’t like it at Cheltenham in the novice races as its the first time they’ve run in a big field and been bumped around. Any horse with good form in bigger fields should be fine regardless of size, don’t thing it’ll be a problem for Ollie either as he’ll be 5 lengths clear of everyone… for the first circuit anyway
#1826
April 2nd, 2009 12:43
”Barking-based bookmakers Coral believe the huge punter and public popularity of Walsh could see My Will start the most heavily-backed favourite in the history of the race.
Spokesman Simon Clare said: “Ruby Walsh will be the name on every punter’s lips this weekend and his huge public support could see My Will’s odds start 5-1 or even shorter.”
Wacky, a frenchie with only two prep runs, no top 4 chase/top 3 hurdle finish this season, it must feel like Christmas to you!
#1827
April 2nd, 2009 12:46
They said the same about cloudy lane last year.
This year i think there’s more chance of it happening due to his exploits at cheltenham but i dont think it will happen.
I believe it will only ever happen if there is a stand out market leader rather than 3 or 4 jostling for top place.
#1828
April 2nd, 2009 12:54
Rambling 12/1 at WH!
#1829
April 2nd, 2009 13:00
Nice large horses possibly jump a ‘lil easier Maureen, but smaller horses, like SOP, can stay out of trouble easier too.
Small ‘ins have won the big one too
#1830
April 2nd, 2009 13:10
I can see Parsons going off 2nd Fav behind My Will.
I’m getting keener by the day again on him.
#1831
April 2nd, 2009 13:43
I don’t give Parsions much of a winning chance and so I am happy to see his odds keep tumbling. And My Will’s and Butler’s Cabins for that matter. Had to take have another small interest in Rambling at WH when I was in getting a few placepots on at lunchtime. Wish they would stop tempting us!
#1832
April 2nd, 2009 13:48
quote from choc thornton “lovely ground, steady side of good”
#1833
April 2nd, 2009 13:56
Him and about 30 other jockeys!
#1834
April 2nd, 2009 14:01
Parson’s is looking good Stats Man
#1835
April 2nd, 2009 14:21
Slow side of good today
Rain forecast for Friday night
Black Apalachi the danger…
Will Parson’s & Darkness get their ground?
#1836
April 2nd, 2009 14:22
The way they are getting strung out does not suggest good ground at all
#1837
April 2nd, 2009 14:34
The RP Sweepstake Kit is available now to download.
http://images.racingpost.com/pdfs/RacingPost_Sweepstake.pdf
The 3rd page lists the top trends of the last 10 years.
Age of a horse – 10/10 horses aged between eight and 12 have won the last ten runnings
Stamina – 10/10 horses have won over three miles previous to winning the National. You can look at how far your chosen horse has won over in all the racecards on RACINGPOST.com
Weight – 10/10 winning horses carried no more than 11st 1lb, so look at the weight your horse is carrying. History has shown that horses carrying big weights struggle to win.
Experience 10/10 – Horses have run at least ten times over fences when winning
Official Rating 10/10 – Horses need an OR (Official Rating) of between 136 – 147. You can find full OR’s on all the cards at RACINGPOST.com
One win 10/10 – Horses have not won more than one race during the season. So you’re looking for horses who have not won more than one race from April 2008.
Ability 9/10 – Horses had won a Class 1 Chase. And if they didn’t win, they finished second at this level, so you’re looking for a horse of a high standard.
First-timers 6/10 – Horses have won on their first run in the race. However, the other four to have run had fallen previously. So if you choose a horse who fell on his first run, and is returning for a crack at the race, the stats are fairly positive.
Good Racing Post Rating 10/10 – Horses achieved a chase Racing Post Rating of at least 144. You can find the current and historic RPRs of all horses in the form on RACINGPOST.com.
#1838
April 2nd, 2009 14:35
Hi Pablo
Virtually no rain forecast now (just a sprinkle Sat morn btwn 7am – 10am, just 2mm).
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp
#1839
April 2nd, 2009 14:36
No sign of Parsons on your 31 points list Pablo and taken at face value (which i have done!), that is probably the single most convincing piece of evidence posted on this website. You have pinpointed a short list of every National winner since 1990 (excepting Red Marauder) – and so I think there is a good chance the winner is on your shortlist.
Would you mind posting that again please Pablo?
#1840
April 2nd, 2009 14:37
Brian, laybys, chequered flags, keep left signs…
#1841
April 2nd, 2009 14:38
If it’s good ground all the better for Al Eile
If it’s like today the 4m 4f will take some getting
#1842
April 2nd, 2009 14:55
Heavy rain forecast on Saturday for Liverpool on the BBC website.
#1843
April 2nd, 2009 15:02
I hate all of the time I waste having another 3-4 odd bets. Last year I did the same and wish I’d just stuck with my instinct and put it all on COD in the first place. So why can’t I do that this year and see its Rambo all the way :p
#1844
April 2nd, 2009 15:05
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Liverpool&day=2
Again this one shows just a little rain for Saturday lol
#1845
April 2nd, 2009 15:09
BBC site shows rain btwn 3am – 6am Sast then clearing
#1846
April 2nd, 2009 15:09
Good job Rambo appears to like any ground
#1847
April 2nd, 2009 15:11
Yeah Pablo
Generally though, overall, on different sites looks great weather but some rain early part Sat, finishing at 1pm latest and then sunny again.
#1848
April 2nd, 2009 15:13
I note the stat where none of the last 10 winners has won more than once this season. Would this not eliminate many of the leading fancies? Eg Rambo.
#1849
April 2nd, 2009 15:15
Yes JJ, Rambling Minster does indeed fail that stat.
#1850
April 2nd, 2009 15:17
KB fans: Graham Lee given up last ride at Aintree today.
Let’s hope he recovers OK from fall other day fully for Sat.
#1851
April 2nd, 2009 15:18
MInd you didn’t COD faill a cpl stats last year inc winning race directly before GN and Eider/GN double…
#1852
April 2nd, 2009 15:19
RE the above nerves are most certainly not causing me to make typos lol
#1853
April 2nd, 2009 15:21
Is the fact that a horse is in good form with over 2 or more wins a failure of a stat….personally i would sooner see 2 1st’s rather than 2 duck eggs.
I think it is more of a coincidence rather than a stat.
#1854
April 2nd, 2009 15:30
sad day for racing exotic dancer sadly put down and denman injured
#1855
April 2nd, 2009 15:37
Seagram won at Cheltenham
Bobbyjo won a hurdles race I think before his win
Hedgehunter won Bobbyjo Chase
COD won Eider at a canter after
All after weights out
Rambo might not have got into the race if he hadn’t won at Cheltenham and he hosed up at Haydock after weights out
I don’t see what the problem is
#1856
April 2nd, 2009 15:54
Maybe someone can confirm, but following my quick analysis, the horses that fit every one of the RP Ten Year Trends are
Mon Mome
Butler´s Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Reveillez
Golden Flight
L´Ami
Cornish Sett
Kelami
#1857
April 2nd, 2009 16:00
Totally agree Pablo.
Recent form as long as is good is good. Problem stat I feel is a horse is hopelessly OUT of form. Again, I think it’s a case of each of us deciding which stats matter to us individually.
Rambo’s two wins – Chelts a nice return to form and Haydock best form of his life (a position in training he has maintained his connections say) – suits me absolutely fine.
Dunno ’bout you lot – (shame for today’s fatalities, thoughts with all) – but I’m actually finding today’s Aintree card just turning the screw even more – get me to 4.15pm Saturday
#1858
April 2nd, 2009 16:00
But did Bobbyjo, Papillon and Red Marauder fit the ten year trends before they won?
#1859
April 2nd, 2009 17:36
Price update and review at 10pm tonight.
#1860
April 2nd, 2009 17:43
“Oedipe says:
April 2, 2009 at 3:54 PM
Maybe someone can confirm, but following my quick analysis, the horses that fit every one of the RP Ten Year Trends are”
Reply:
Oedpe I think you will be better off looking at the trend advise on this site that often go back much more than ten years.
Rambo would have to be on any sensible trends list, if he is not on the RP list then there trends list is crap (as is the Pricewise advice to bet BFT [a 7 year old])! There list looks poor to me – this sites computer selections are much better (how do they sell this sort of rubbish in the RP)!!
#1861
April 2nd, 2009 17:49
Got a friend to record Bowl and Foxhunters, cheeky.
Bowl was great to watch until Denmans fall, he was being pushed and Madison always looked the winner anyway, but that is jockeys job I suppose, anyway I would want Ruby onboard from now on, but to be fair to Sam the horse ran in snatches, considering what happened to Exotic Dancer that would worry me. I’d be no good as a owner, trainer, jockey.. too kind and considerate to animals.
I would not want Tony on my horses either, Exotic Dancer ran its heart out for him as it always did! and god does Tony ask for that.
Rest in peace brave horse.
#1862
April 2nd, 2009 18:05
Re: Racing Post trend:
“One win 10/10 – Horses have not won more than one race during the season. So you’re looking for horses who have not won more than one race from April 2008.”
Reply: Bollocks!
Now we have discussed this before on this site and my conclusion remains the same. Winning can only be seen as a positive never a negative (yes it looks odd and is different but only in a positive way). I must admit it caused me some concern at first (and I raised it myself) but when you think about you can only come to a positive conclusion.
Not winning is a negative if you dont place 1/2/3 in a Chase in the GN year (preferably at 25f or more)
#1863
April 2nd, 2009 18:08
All this talk of bollards resulting in mayhem and carnage is worrying. I didn’t notice any bollards today? too busy watchin the normal mayhem and carnage!!
foxhunters involved one horse doing a complete circle but was ok? the other was bad, you could even hear its neck break as it fell at beachers, not as bad as broken legs etc in terms of the distress for the horse and me frankly! but not good, so why do I like the GN and other jump racing.. habit? and horses are amazing creatures that humans have a long history of working with. Horses love it too! most of the time. You can’t prevent accidents thats life, but filtering bollards??!! sounds like it could create problems!
#1864
April 2nd, 2009 18:18
I think you have to keep on eye on longer term stats to take in slight variances, those systems people are using giving points for various trends seem sensible, grading the length of the stat, the longer the stat the more important it is. I think Red Marauder would have met all 20/20 at the time and most if not all 10/10′s.
#1865
April 2nd, 2009 18:33
Fair enough about Red Marauder but am sure the Post 10 year trends would have said put a line through Irish runners before Bobbyjo won
#1866
April 2nd, 2009 18:43
1, Rambblin Min’
2, Kibeggan B
3, Parsons L
4, Butlers C
s, Comply or die(omitted ‘My Will’ but so far no stakes on COD)
6, Himalayan Trail
Hey, ‘Rascal’, I really enjoyed yr site, thanx….
So sad about Exotic Dancer.
#1867
April 2nd, 2009 18:47
Right now that ive calmed myself down over the OR stat the RP has gone and put it back in doubt. They hve stated that a OR of between 136-147 is a 10/10 stat.
Now having looked for myself this afternoon and checked and rechecked til my eyes hurt i can confrim this is right but if you go back just that little further you get to a horse on a OR 155 on raceday so dont take there trends that serious cos some of them are not the same as last year and surely its better to have a constant trend each year to take note of than one that changes each year to fit the winner.
i.e if a 10 year old does not win for 10 years then the racing post will advise ruling out all 10 year olds as it will be a 10/10 stat. But would you honestly rule them out. Some stats are coincidence and some are not. Look for the exception that proves the rule is my advice for the day.
Did anyone else notice the little laybys today? Im sure there was a copper in one with a speed gun
#1868
April 2nd, 2009 18:48
Oh and i’ve just been reading that the owner of My Will is shocked at the bookies and thinks his horse should be 7/1 just to get round!
#1869
April 2nd, 2009 18:55
Pablo, probably right about RP’s 10/10-Bobbyjo. Looking solely at last ten years is russian roulette.
#1870
April 2nd, 2009 20:01
Oedipe wrote
Maybe someone can confirm, but following my quick analysis, the horses that fit every one of the RP Ten Year Trends are
Mon Mome
Butler´s Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Reveillez
Golden Flight
L´Ami
Cornish Sett
Kelami
None of them are on my shortlist Oedipe and I am a serious trends follower! Parsons Legacy is the only one with any sort of a chance to my mind – but not enough to persuade me to have a bet on him. He has not run for 113 days and that is a VERY big negative on the trends and so I’d question those trends. And I also speak as someone who has a bet on Reveillez.
#1871
April 2nd, 2009 20:06
just noticed clare baldings tips….
Clare Balding (Channel 4 Racing) – BBC Interview March 31st
* Southern Vic
* Rambling Minster
* State of Play
* Black Apalachi
#1872
April 2nd, 2009 20:24
Brian where did you read that re My Will?
#1873
April 2nd, 2009 20:47
Here you go Showlad.
http://www.ireland.com/sport/gaelicfootball/Stewart_wild_price/maxiview.ie?mx_fast_NEWS_365sports_uuid=TTMGracingnews5134211_irnews
#1874
April 2nd, 2009 21:09
Hi guys
Can anyone tell me where I can find the RPR/BRB/OR for each horse? And where to find them for each National runner or if they are available. I believe there is an RPR trend of winners having no less than 145 but what is the upper limit? Do RPRs fluctuate in the lead up to races?
I had a shortlist of 9 but knocked out Irish Invader as he has no victory in a race of over 3 miles (a requirement of National winners since 1970), and also Parsons Legacy and Himalayan trail as their last races were over 50 days ago, which leaves
Cornish Sett
Southern Vic
Rambling Minster
Darkness
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
All these horses fit the trends nicely but I’d like to know if thoses ratings I mentioned about come into play…
Andrew
#1875
April 2nd, 2009 21:18
well the time is nearly here all i say is thanks for all the tips have taken on board and placed my bets
so good luck to everybody hope we take tons offthe bookies, but with the death of exotic dancer lets hope all the horses and jockeys have a safe ride.
may the best horse win????
#1876
April 2nd, 2009 21:40
Sorry for changing subjects here but just gotta say how sad and shocked I was after hearing about Exotic Dancer. I’ve only been into racing a few years and it was around 2006 I noticed Exotic, I think it was Nov06 and he was 16/1 in a race – he was my first big winner. Loved his battles with Kauto, he was an absolute tryer who always gave 110%, head down and got on with the job in hand, maybe if he was around a few years earlier he might have won the bigger prizes. Nice little tribute on RP website from O’neil and AP. Not a great, great horse but an absolute trooper, he was the bridesmaid on alot of occasions but I didn’t mind coz he never gave up – even when deep down you knew he was beaten!
#1877
April 2nd, 2009 21:54
mattzz says:
April 2, 2009 at 8:06 PM
just noticed clare baldings tips….
Clare Balding (Channel 4 Racing) – BBC Interview March 31st
* Southern Vic
* Rambling Minster
* State of Play
* Black Apalachi
Oh no… she’s utterly hopeless tipster and has two of mine SV and RM, that is it then RM can’t win. Sorry guys all the work has been for nothing.
No really she is that bad just check out the BBC teams tips from last year not 1 CoD from 4 goes each:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7325484.stm
#1878
April 2nd, 2009 22:00
Matriarch big thumbs up, absolutely agree was gutted to hear about Exotic today, really feel for Tony, Jonjo, Sir Robert and all connections a huge loss to racing in general. RIP Exotic Dancer.
KJ, personally I think you shouldn’t have said that about AP, he loved that horse and he must be completely cut up right now, he wouldn’t do anything to hurt it, you don’t dedicate your life to racing horses otherwise.
#1879
April 2nd, 2009 22:08
Follow the money – an alternative to trends – Thursday Update:
Blue – Positive
Red – Negative
Lsst Night:
Blues – Positive: Top Six
1. Parsons Legacy 37pts – up 1 placement
2. Darkness 34pts – down 1 placement
3. Irish Invader 28pts – up 1
4. State Of Play 27pts (amended entry, left out last night)
5. Cornish Sett 25pts – down 2
6. Maljimar 23pts – new entry
Reds – Negative: Top 4
1. Big fella Thanks 25pts – no change
2. Southern Vic 24pts – no change
3. Silver Birch 15pts – no change
4. Cloudy Lane 13pts – no change
TONIGHT:
BLUE – Positive (over 5 days)
1. Parsons Lagacy 38pts – no change (only 1pt today)
2. Darkness 37 pts – no change (closing the gap on NO1 – very consistent all week)a danger to all.
3. State of Play 35pts – up 1 placement
4. Butlers Cabin 31pts new top 6 entry! (all McCoy money!)
5. Irish Invader 29pts (only 1pt today)- down 2 placements
6. Cornish Sett 26 pts (only 1pt today)- down 1 place
Red – Negative (over 4 days)
1. Big Fella Thanks 33pts – no change (friendless)
1. Southern Vic 33pts – up 1 (friendless)- cant win I’am afraid.
3. Cloudy Lane 19pts – up 1 (too much weight)
4. Silver birch 18pts – down 1
Conclusion.
With McCoy riding Bulers Cabin all the money went on BC resulting in many others going out slightly. Rambo got his first three Reds as did many others. Even My Will now has six Reds. State Of Play still has considerable support for a heavy weight.
Darkness is the real success story, Blue all week and no Reds he must be seen as a real danger to Rambo now(confirms my own assessment).
On the negative side all hope looks gone for BFT and SV (sorry – I have him early to), Cloudy Lane and Silver Birch. Surprises are that popular selections Black Apalachi has 16 Reds (over four days), L’Ami 16 Reds, Himalayan Trail 12 Reds and Irish Invader 12 Reds.
And Rambo for information:
Blue 12pts
Red 3 pts
Holding up (lets hope for some “Blue” on Friday evening/Saturday morning).
Recommendation:
Make sure you have some cover on Darkness – he may give Rambo a run and even win! (at least have a “saver” bet even if you think it wont win)
I now make it:
1. Rambling Minister
2. Darkness (clear 2nd best again)
Big Gap
3. L’Ami (but getting weeker as a bet – jury out on this).
3. Kilbeggan Blade
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Cornish Sett
6. Himalayan Trail
It once again looks like two good selections against the field with about five others with a lesser chance(L’Ami, KB,CS,HT, PL)
Next update GN eve – this one will be very important as last year we were able to confirm the winner – wil be up by about 1pm Friday.
#1880
April 2nd, 2009 22:11
Should say:
“Will be up by about 10pm Friday”.
Cant wait myself included at the eve of GN betting is so important for clues.
#1881
April 2nd, 2009 22:13
Will be posting a complete guide of Blues and Reds for all leading runners and my final selections for what there worth.
We will also take a look at other betting markets. 10pm Friday!
#1882
April 2nd, 2009 22:15
If the ground is soft, which horses might this bring into the equation? Black Apalachi? Southern Vic?
#1883
April 2nd, 2009 22:17
Can anyone tell me the breeding of Parsons Legacy?
#1884
April 2nd, 2009 22:35
Good work Systemsman. I was looking back on last year’s blog today on the days before the race and the “Where the money’s going” feature you did had the 1,2,3 in it. So it’s informative for everyone doing the Exacta and Trifecta I would say!
#1885
April 2nd, 2009 23:11
Admin,
Thanks for that. I should have known you’d have a day off – especially at this point in the proceedings!!!
Ta again.
Onry
#1886
April 2nd, 2009 23:23
Hi all,
I’ve been watching and listnening for a couple of weeks now and have thoroughly enjoyed myself. Everyone’s views and opinions have been amazing and I’d like to thank everyone for their hard work.
My top six is:
1) Rambo
2) Parson’s Leagacy
3) Kilbreggan Blade
4) State of Play
5) Black Aplachi
6) Butler’s Cabin
Haven’t got any money on BC and it’s too late now but think he definitely has a chance now McCoy’s on board. He rode his 3000th winner this year and it’ll be typical that he tops that with a GN that he’s never won!
RIP Exotic…
#1887
April 3rd, 2009 06:34
Thanks for that system don’t think Darkness will win but have put a saver on anyone based on that info. Thinks its not necessarily right but sensible advice.
Of to liverpool now thanks for everyones comments been very usefull. Come on Rambo.
#1888
April 3rd, 2009 07:09
mcririck just tipped up RAMBO and SOP .
#1889
April 3rd, 2009 07:52
Anyone heard any whispers about non-runners in the top 40? Doesn’t look like Maljimar is going to get a run
#1890
April 3rd, 2009 08:09
Re Claire Balding tips.
I’ve only ever listened to her once when she was asked to give a big priced horse to place in the National. She tipped up Lord Atterbury which we all backed on the Tote just to place. Returned around 15-1 just for the place.
She can’t be all bad!
#1891
April 3rd, 2009 08:25
I think its unfair saying Claire Balding is a bad tipper based on just last years results.
Having looked at a lot of last years tipsters selections there wasn’t many that had picked out CoD.
#1892
April 3rd, 2009 08:36
rain forecast for tomorrow from the morning …… should we start to sweat???
#1893
April 3rd, 2009 08:43
“NONE of the reserves for Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National will go in the 4m4f marathon showpiece, as the original 40 declarations will now be the final field for the race.
The Nick Williams-trained Maljimar was first reserve, but he along with Companero, Iron Man and Patsy Hall have all failed to gain a berth.”
Need to re-invest my Maljimar stake somewhere. Not sure whether to add another horse or top up the ones I have already.
#1894
April 3rd, 2009 08:45
“rain forecast for tomorrow from the morning …… should we start to sweat???”
No – dont panic it would take a monsoon to change the Good going!!
#1895
April 3rd, 2009 08:47
sytems man thanks very much for your swift reply much appreciated.
if rambo or the dark one win i will owe you several pints.
#1896
April 3rd, 2009 08:50
I agree Dragonman. Aintree were planning watering each night anyway (watered last night) so presumably they will hold off on that tonight and let nature take its course. Looks like light rain/showers anyway and nothing too heavy.
#1897
April 3rd, 2009 08:52
Think Companero is worth watching for the future – has already beaten Nine De Sivola and is bred to stay all day
Not disappointed that Clare Balding has tipped my four – RM, SOP, SV and BA
BUT McCririck has gone for RM and SOP – wtf!
Fair play to him he did tip up the best bit of value ever – Zafonic at 5/2 after he was beaten in his Guineas prep on soft ground but that was years ago and I don’t follow the flat racing these days
#1898
April 3rd, 2009 09:05
i had a look at companero a while back and it was gonna be my fun fiver outsider if it got in indeed looks good for the future.
#1899
April 3rd, 2009 09:08
Tomorrow’s weather in detail. Bit of rain is nearly all in the 4am – 7am window. This will not affect going which will be as they have maintained it to be – Good/Good to soft in places
#1900
April 3rd, 2009 09:09
Here’s link:
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?day=1&zipcode=Liverpool
#1901
April 3rd, 2009 09:16
To be fair, McCririck tipped up CoD last year. Maybe he’s amongst us on this site!
#1902
April 3rd, 2009 09:19
The Statistician on the Sporting Life website picked out Cornish Sett on 10/10 trends(but Silver Birch is 2nd!). Interesting because Cornish’s 18/18 stats and longer are much stronger.
#1903
April 3rd, 2009 09:21
Stayer where did you get info re stand-by horses?
Isn’t the door open ’til tomorrow morn?
#1904
April 3rd, 2009 09:29
Anybody reckon Idle Talk has an e/w shout? 4th in 06 Scots Nat, Jumping seems to have been sorted,(5 career falls /ur but Rough Quest had 5 so in the stat parameters there) has had a good season, 4th in Becher chase and will prefer the ground tomorrow.
#1905
April 3rd, 2009 09:29
I think that reserves had to find their place this morning, and all top 40 stood their ground so even if tonight one pulled out then maljimar would not be put in as it’s too late.
#1906
April 3rd, 2009 09:49
No reserves gain placein Grand National
By Racing Post Staff9.20AM 3 APR 2009
NONE of the reserves for Saturday’s John Smith’s Grand National will go in the 4m4f marathon showpiece, as the original 40 declarations will now be the final field for the race.
The Nick Williams-trained Maljimar was first reserve, but he along with Companero, Iron Man and Patsy Hall have all
#1907
April 3rd, 2009 09:49
I thought it interesting that Aidan Coleman has chosen Stan over Mon Mome, former Welsh Nat 2nd who didn’t have much luck in running last year.
#1908
April 3rd, 2009 10:05
Just to let you know there hasnt been any rain overnight and no rain so far today. Very cloudy but this is what is was like yesterday morning until lunchtime and then the sun started to come out.
#1909
April 3rd, 2009 10:08
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=betting/09/04/02/manual_180534.html
Check the link, interesting analysis of trends. Like the fact Cornish Sett is the one it picks, my biggest winner. Rambo 5pts behind in there scoring.
#1910
April 3rd, 2009 10:20
Brian says:
April 3, 2009 at 8:25 AM
I think its unfair saying Claire Balding is a bad tipper based on just last years results.
Having looked at a lot of last years tipsters selections there wasn’t many that had picked out CoD.
So be fair she been just as woeful whenever I’ve watched any racing on the BBC, yet to see her tip a winner.
#1911
April 3rd, 2009 10:48
Thanks to all contributors to this site. I have been following with interest over past few months. Become an obsession of sorts if i’m being honest.
Anyway, my 3 biggest winners will be in order;
Rambling M
Darkness
State of Play
My only lingering doubt with Rambo is the ground – could it be too lively for him? I appreciate that he has run on such ground in his early days but all recent form has been on pretty soft going. Sometimes a horse’s preference for going changes as they get older.
Anyway – thanks again to all and fingers crossed.
#1912
April 3rd, 2009 10:48
The Sporting Life trends analayis is cheap twaddle, in my opinion. If only they had looked at this site for 20 minutes they could have conjured up something far more credible.
#1913
April 3rd, 2009 10:48
Indeed, not to have Clare tipping RM at all, but maybe shes been dropping in here for her tips lately
Brody re your feedback yesterday, I wasn’t suggesting that McCoy would willfully ‘hurt’ a horse, just that his style of ‘all out’ riding coupled with a horse that gives a jockey, as someone said 110%
is the most likely combination to result in something bad happening usually to the horse!
#1914
April 3rd, 2009 10:50
correction: not too happy to have… Clare tipping RM it should read
#1915
April 3rd, 2009 10:58
Well in 2006 Claire Balding had Both Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde in her top 4 so i guess you didnt watch that year then brody!
Honestly dont see how you can complain if someone tips your horse. Do you really believe that it will affect the chances of that horse winning.
I can just see it now. Day 2 at the Aintree paddock, And Rambo has just heard the news Claire Balding has tipped him to win. He is now desperatley trying to pull his shoes off so he doesn’t run to his best.
As Darkness comes out of the Diary room he heres that BBC pinsticker has got him down as there number 1 choice so he is frantically running around to find out if this is a good omen or not so he knows wether to fall at the canal turn on the second circuit whilst leading.
#1916
April 3rd, 2009 11:12
I think Claire Balding gives a real insight to the Beeb’s coverage-giving information to know-alls and the know ****-alls alike. Claire if you’re reading this, you’re great.
#1917
April 3rd, 2009 11:18
you can just tell people try to avoid her when shes in the paddock trotting about sticking the microphone up everyones nose, would get on my nerves…i think there were are some even worse tipsters out there though…E.g Katie PRice AKA Jordan, who tipped afistfullofdollas who isnt even running…i hope she put her savings on it
#1918
April 3rd, 2009 11:21
that was in the horse and hound by the way
#1919
April 3rd, 2009 11:32
What has Mike Torpey in the Liverpool Echo tipped [or will it be in tomorrows paper]? I understand he’s got a pretty good record in the race. Have to agree that it’s great to find so many people as obsessed with the great race as me!
#1920
April 3rd, 2009 11:34
haa, haa to be fair Clare is knowledgable about horses and that can be good, but the ‘if you are not talking its dead air’ philosophy is rather annoying, as she is quite hard to ignore. I went off her when she was rude about Amberleigh House before he won the GN and after!!! They really tried to get some finishing speed out of Amberleigh in his preps and it worked, it was obvious he would go close I thought, he wasn’t a no hoper and far from deserving being called a donkey!
#1921
April 3rd, 2009 11:36
wonder if she likes KB!!
#1922
April 3rd, 2009 11:42
Mike Torpey’s view…
“By 4.30pm tomorrow I firmly believe another family pairing will have been added to that list in the shape of Keith and James Reveley with their talented gelding Rambling Minster”.
Anyone disagree?
#1923
April 3rd, 2009 12:08
Was that not the year that she was sticking up for Women jockeys cos Ginger Mccain said they would never win the national and he would bare his arse if one did.
Cant really blame her for having a pop at his horse for saying that.
Plus she did stick to her guns and tip forest gunner who finished a very creditable 5th
#1924
April 3rd, 2009 12:09
Had;
Rambo
State of Play
Butlers Cabin
Cornish Sett &
Darkness
In 60 tricast combos. 10p on each. Lets see how we get on! Low risk, big reward!!
#1925
April 3rd, 2009 12:38
Ruby Walsh says “Looking at the others I have thought about it all week but there’s nothing you’d stick your neck out for. There’s a few with light weights – Kilbeggan Blade, Southern Vic and Brooklyn Brownie. They have nice weights but it’s a wide-open race.”
#1926
April 3rd, 2009 12:39
Well in 2006 Claire Balding had Both Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde in her top 4 so i guess you didnt watch that year then brody!
Honestly dont see how you can complain if someone tips your horse. Do you really believe that it will affect the chances of that horse winning.
________________________________________________________
Obviously I wasn’t listening to her tips Brian, that’s for sure
Quick check back thru the bbc archives:
2008 4 chances didn’t pick the winner
2007 4 chances didn’t pick the winner
2006 4 chances picked the winner with last choice of 4!
2005 4 chances didn’t pick the winner
2004 4 chances picked the winner with last choice of 4!
2003 4 chances didn’t pick the winner
I’ve never considered myself a tipster or the shrewdest judge but my record pees all over that as I’m sure 99% of the regulars on here do too. For an expert she comes across as more of a guesser to me. However I will conceed her knowledge of racing is miles better than Rishi who tipped Madison Du Berlais last year complete pin sticker!!!
It’d be nice if they actually got some knowledgable trends folk on there for once rather than trying to find a human interest story to rabbit on about. I reckon we should start a petition to get Systemsman on there as their racing/trends tip expert be good to education the public for once rather than treat them all like idiots who only pick horses by silk colours or names.
Of course it doesn’t hurt RM’s chances but it definitely doesn’t enhance them at all. There are certain tipsters I do respect though I only buy the Observer once a year and was well chuffed to see Eddie the shoe tip RM this year.
#1927
April 3rd, 2009 12:51
At the end of the day Brody it doesn’t matter how many folk tip or not tip a horse it wont affect any of there chances.
The horse wont win just cos Systemsman, Clare Balding, Eddie the shoe, or frank the tramp in my local bookies tells me it will.
The horse will win cos it was the best horse to get a bit of luck in running.
If clare Balding tells me she has put money on it then so what i wont be goin gout and backing another in the same way i wont be going out and backing whatever Eddie the shoe says.
I have backed my horses and thats that. No doubt this time on Sunday we’ll have a load of ponced up idiots coming on here saying SEE i told you it would win. Bet your glad you listened to me eh!
Instead of coming on here and saying well done guys and gals, between us we managed to get there.
(or obviously the other side where it doesn’t win and the ponced up idiots will be nowhere to be seen and it will be down to the rest of us to pick through the bones to see what went wrong)
#1928
April 3rd, 2009 12:52
Daniel Edwards says:
April 3, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Had;
Rambo
State of Play
Butlers Cabin
Cornish Sett &
Darkness
In 60 tricast combos. 10p on each. Lets see how we get on! Low risk, big reward!!
Nice choice Daniel but think i would swap Cornish Sett for Comply or Die.
#1929
April 3rd, 2009 13:03
Anyone got the link to the BBC live racing stream? TIA
#1930
April 3rd, 2009 13:11
Just watched first race at Aintree – was funny to see winning jocky Dominic Elsworth celebrate his win by crossing the line and pointing at his left shoulder….who was that meant at then??? A certain trainer of Darkness maybe??? Quality.
#1931
April 3rd, 2009 13:22
this is all helpfully distracting me from my nervousness about tmw!!!! I’m so tired and haven’t even looked at todays card, got the day off but feeling rubbish, still haven’t gone over things for tmw with regards to my final bet, had enough now, hope I’m on form tmw least I’m not running!
most importantly I’m hoping all horses and jockeys come back safely, and we get a fair fight.
Damn, missed that race was going to go for el dancer too, failed to get my money on sunnyhill boy yesterday too so not too lucky at moment better get on the case today. Shame for jockey missing Darkness tmw, he is so gutted. Crikey Clare is backing KB!
How do trifectas work? might go for some of that do you name a bunch of horses in any order or what?
#1932
April 3rd, 2009 13:25
Whilst we’re talking of the BBC there is a National preview show on tonight 7.00pm BBC2.
#1933
April 3rd, 2009 13:33
so many horses I’m not on still worry me even knowing the probable ground… darkness, Irish Invader are the main two really, why should I back them?
my long standing bets are BA, Cornish, Rambo, COD, Brooklyn by the way…….. Aaaggggggghhhhh!….. help I’m not going to see this out!
#1934
April 3rd, 2009 13:53
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7833395.stm
Political Pop, Live racing as requested!
#1935
April 3rd, 2009 13:58
mattzz says:
April 2, 2009 at 8:06 PM
just noticed clare baldings tips….
Clare Balding (Channel 4 Racing) – BBC Interview March 31st
* Southern Vic
* Rambling Minster
* State of Play
* Black Apalachi
and yet the first words out of her mouth today when told someone was going to ask her about the national horses …..
“have a look at Kilbeggan Blade?????”
#1936
April 3rd, 2009 14:01
kj i know what you mean got my six horses all neat and bets on but just have this evil feeling in my stomach that tomorrow it will be
1. black apalachi – not backed
2. Cornish sett – not backed
3. lami – not backed
4. my will – not backed
#1937
April 3rd, 2009 14:08
for the tricast with rambling minster
butlers cabin, southern vic, kilbeggan blade, brooklyn brownie and himalayan trail
#1938
April 3rd, 2009 14:28
Paddy’s have gone 250/1 on Kelami.
Now I know this isn’t at the top of anyones list for finding the winner, but its by no means the worst horse in the race and given they’re paying 5 places, I’ve had the obligatory pound or two EW.
(Yes, I know the odds on Betfair are much higher, but I’m strictly a ‘high street’ man
)
#1939
April 3rd, 2009 14:50
boylesports paying first six past the post
#1940
April 3rd, 2009 15:03
I’m going to top up my small ew on Battlecry now that NTD’S horses are running so well.
#1941
April 3rd, 2009 15:06
just watched the topham over the national fences back irish raptor for national 2010 you heard it he first
#1942
April 3rd, 2009 15:16
some good news where it counts got Irish Rapter over those fences, hooray! thats made me feel alot better.
Interesting to hear Nigel fancies all his GN entries! esp. Ollie Magern!?!
Still got trouble picking last GN horse between Irish Invader, Darkness and SOP. Tried lucky name association to pick it for me hasn’t worked,,. told myself yesterday if Trust Fund wins I’ll go for SOP.. haven’t, told myself if Irish Rapter won I’d back Irish Invader! hmmm
#1943
April 3rd, 2009 15:34
Thanks for the link Volty. Wasn’t showing a link on bbc webpage. But proved useful (backed Alway Waining e/way)
Come on Rambo tomorrow!!
#1944
April 3rd, 2009 15:36
Howdi folks – well after posting on this blog for the past 6 months now and a lot of huffing and puffing – here are Birchys final selcetions for the great race!!
1. Darkness
2. Rambling Minster
3. State of Play
4. Himalayan Trail
5. Southern Vic
6. Brooklyn Brownie
Ive switched the order of my horses on my list based on the forecast goodish ground and also monitoring how the market has been moving today . Ive backed them all and i wish everyone else the best of luck … cant wait for your final list systems man, hoping at least a few of mine are on your final list.. very best of luck all….:-)
#1945
April 3rd, 2009 16:48
Good luck Silver!
Irish Invaders rider is 18 and never riden over these fences. Too late now, but James Reveley has right? just not the GN?
#1946
April 3rd, 2009 17:00
Admin: I take it you’ll be running a thread for the Scottish and Irish GN’s will you?
#1947
April 3rd, 2009 17:25
KJ, I think Nick Scholfield is 19, he’s on Cornish Sett. Last teenager to win was Brian Fletcher on Red Alligator, and he rode the same horse the year before!
#1948
April 3rd, 2009 17:26
Just a quick word before the 10pm “Follow The Money” review tonight that I will post.
Thought all the trends fans might like to know that as of 18.15 today the following are looking good (lets hope it stays that way when i do the official reveiw later):
In NO Order
Butlers Cabin
Rambling Minster at last the “blues” are arriving (as predicted)
State Of Play
Darkness (more to say on this one tonight – get on)
Kilbeggan Blade
Offshore Account
You do need to look at this with the overall weeks review which I will post at 10pm.
Getting excited and very confident!!!! Wont sleep tonight.
#1949
April 3rd, 2009 17:31
Money coming in for Rambo on Betfair. Fascinated to see who’ll go off fav. I think AP might be on another losing favourite. The confidence behind My Will is rightly fading. I may be another insomniac tonight. I think a few drinks might help. Just watched the GN phone-in on ATR. Rambo tipped up once by some nutter who couldn’t even get his name right!!!
#1950
April 3rd, 2009 17:46
My final personal selections will also be posted at 10pm and there may be surprises in store!
Please dont chew my head of if we lose as i have done my best along with many ohers to find the winner based on the best trends backed by real money.
We will never get it right every single year and this could be one of them, who knows. I am very confident however and this has grown in the last 24 hours when you see my final list (anyone guess my final 1/2 3?).
If a non trends horse wins then I wont be in the money and thats a risk I am willing to take.
I hope we all get that holiday in the sun for the family and hammer those rich bookies good and hard!!!!
#1951
April 3rd, 2009 17:54
KJ, I wouldn’t worry about Paul Townend’s age. Superb young jockey.
Go on ATR and watch the way he rode it previously at Thurles.
#1952
April 3rd, 2009 18:00
Thanks Steve
trifectas or tricasts? same thing? they are on totesport right? but under what guise I can’t find it!.. excuse my if I’m being rubbish in advance.
BBC2 preview on now folks
#1953
April 3rd, 2009 18:09
Just for the record my final 5 that I’ve backed:
1. Rambling 20/1 E/W 16pts
2. Himalayan Trail 40/1 E/W 12pts
3. Southern Vic 33/1 E/W 8pts
4. Butler’s Cabin 20/1 WIN 8pts
5. Parson’s Legacy 33/1 E/W 6pts
Lost bets, Character Building 8pts and Garde Champetre 8pts
Best of luck to everyone tomorrow so looking forward to the big day already and thanks to everyone who has contributed to this blog in a positive way its good to hear all the opinions and thoughts to keep perspective on your own views at least. Lets hope they all get back safely and its a profitable day for everyone.
Particular thanks go to Pablo, Lough, Systems and Silver Birch particularly enjoyed your intelligent, well thought out contributions to this site hope to see you all back for another assualt in 2010.
#1954
April 3rd, 2009 18:12
its been an absolute pleasure to read this blog as i did last year and whacked my wife family and car on COD and Dargent. Regardless if the top tips win i think we should all give a big shout and thx to the likes of systems, brian, brody , crisp, pablo etc etc sorry if i havent mentioned the others. Your knowledge and research makes this the most interesting pre-national blog on earth and i am sure and hope the winner is RAMBO if not i will be looking for a new wife car house etc. good luck all. PS my EW tip has to be the Legacy
#1955
April 3rd, 2009 18:30
Do jockey ages come into the national winners trends too? Reveley is only 20! Who was the last 20 yr old to win a national?? And do they win often?? Got a big stake on Rambo and hope he takes to the fences!!
#1956
April 3rd, 2009 18:33
Hi Showlad,
I’ll probably have to go and lie down in a darkened room for a couple of days once they cross the line on Saturday afternoon but, yes, we will defintely be having threads for those two big races – anything that has a Grand National connotation will have a thread posted.
I would have had a Topham thread but just too busy with the rest of Grand National Guide – we will definitely have a look at that race with a view to 2010 though!
#1957
April 3rd, 2009 18:47
not often no Matriarch, Crisp just said last teenager was on red alligator and he’d been round before, I think that was a long time ago, certainly before my time. It could go either way I think, the brave of youth v the lack of experience. Suprised noone has made the slightest mention of it before really.
***Clare on the beeb just said HEAVY rain tonight***
certainly looks like a band of intense weather on website, from midnight to 6am! as if we needed the soft extras we aren’t on back in contention.
#1958
April 3rd, 2009 18:49
admin get involved with all the biggies i reckon. The knowlege that people of on horse racing is brilliant especially when you compare it to other blogs like the BBC. Regardless whether or not Rambo wins tomorrow i have enjoyed this blog and stats on races more often than not throw up the winner. Kalahari King, Rambo double for tomorrow me thinks
Come on Rambo
#1959
April 3rd, 2009 18:49
well my final 6 bets are on no going back everything crossed and probably wont sleep at all tonight .
1 – RAMBO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2 – Darkness
3 – parsons legacy
4 – Brooklyn Brownie (late arrival on the list after another look and a little advice)
5 – State of Play
6 – Kilbeggan Blade
i’m just praying cornish sett and black apalachi wont bite me in the butt.
#1960
April 3rd, 2009 18:55
I’m Praying My Will or Butlers Cabin don’t bite me in the butt !!!
#1961
April 3rd, 2009 18:59
Top 6 in order of return
1. Rambling Minster
2. Offshore Account
3. Brooklyn Brownie
4. State Of Play
5. Kilbeggan Blade
6. Parsons Legacy
Saver Darkness
Combination exacta/trifectas from
Rambling Minster
State Of Play
Offshore Account
Darkness
Comply Or Die
#1962
April 3rd, 2009 19:03
those of you lucky enough to be going tomorrow i fully expect to see you on the tv with combat trousers camouflage vests and a mullet wig with a tie round it and a water pistol with mud smeared across your faces supporting your choice.
#1963
April 3rd, 2009 19:09
#1964
April 3rd, 2009 19:21
For all those worried about the age of the jocks it is worth pointing out the Slippers Madden was only 20 when he won on Numbersixvalverde and that was his first ride over the fences. James Reveley is the same age and has already had a winner over the fences with Endless Power. So I wouldn’t be worried about that.
#1965
April 3rd, 2009 19:35
thats reassuring Stephen, I forgot about slippers! thanks for that. I seem to have forgotten everything at this stage, total info overload this year, I peaked in January I think, just hope my selections didn’t.
#1966
April 3rd, 2009 20:58
Evenin’ All:)
tHE niGHT beFORE!! Typos again, lol
Admin, thanks for confirming that after we’ve ALL laid down in a dark room for a couple of days, that we can all share and return again to threads on the next two Scottish and Irish Nationals.
Weather: Latest on BBC is LIGHT rain during night, clearing around 6/7am and then dry except for the odd light shower. So looks not enough to unsettle ‘Good’ status but may see them now not going off too fast, which for Rmabo fans will suit him
Dunno ’bout you lot, but I am that weird stage of satisfied with my bets and selections – but sick to the pit of my tum – if something absolutely turns TONS of stats on their heads 2mo …oh well…
Wouldn’t mind if PL or SOP do indeed run best fresh and romp home – at least we all agree on their quality and their qualifying on so many other stats – but more worried if some horse MILES out of forms and stats just turns up and takes the race…it be the stuff that nightmares are made o’ Jethro..:)
#1967
April 3rd, 2009 20:58
Well it looks like everyone is getting pre race night jitters as no one is posting!
What a brilliant 5 or 6 months it’s been leading up to the big day itself. A fabulous effort by the Admin team and all the regulars. It seems like we have welcomed some new faces into the family and that can only help for 2010 when we try and narrow down the field once more.
A huge disappointment that Character Building didn’t make it. What a race it would have been. But I’m sure it will still be as tense and nerve wrecking as ever.
Here’s to a great race tomorrow and hopefully we all have the winner
#1968
April 3rd, 2009 21:07
So glad I found this site; so relieved to know there are other people out there as nervous as I am..Good Luck everybody, and safe journey horses and jockeys.
#1969
April 3rd, 2009 21:10
GOOD LUCK,
WONT BE THROUGH LACK OF EFFORT ON THIS SITE A SYSTEMSMAN AND ALL WHO HAVE,CONTRIBUTED.
STAY POSITIVE AND WE WILL HAVE IT DONE TOMORROW.
TILL NEXT YEAR,
COME ON RAMBO.
#1970
April 3rd, 2009 21:14
Yes a toast to all who have been on this site for the past few months and all the hard work and info thats been shared . for those who have a dicky tummy and wont get a wink of sleep tonight …. for those that’ll catapult out of bed at 7am tomorrow morning and run down to the paper shop for the racing post and run on adrenaline for the rest of the day … good luck lads and lasses
#1971
April 3rd, 2009 21:15
Well guys…..it’s the night before the National, and i am like a kid on xmas eve, only difference is i won’t be up at 5am opening presents i will be up at 5am reading the racing post.
Well it has been a great 4 months….win lose or draw, the whole thrill of the elimination process, and getting the anti post value and finding on national day that the horses you picked out of the 130 or so that you started with in December are lining up with odds 4 times as less as you got makes us all winners really.
I was telling my Mum today if rambo wins the National i will be able to buy a house….she was so pleased then i said but if he loses i will have to sell the house….her mood kinda changed…..he he he.
What ever you are on good luck and may the best tipster win!!!
#1972
April 3rd, 2009 21:15
Speaking of Systemsman, I’m waiting on the 10pm odds check here :p
It is a very useful tool for Exacta and Tricasts (or was last year anyway).
#1973
April 3rd, 2009 21:18
Rambo now 17/2 with Vc bet, thats a shed load of money to force a cut like that.
#1974
April 3rd, 2009 21:21
Incidently, the Racing Post’s race verdict has Rambling Minster (nap).
#1975
April 3rd, 2009 21:22
systemsman – where are you lad? I am waiting with baited breath for your final calculations!
#1976
April 3rd, 2009 21:22
Hi Admin,With one day to go can i ask who you have backed and why? Thanks again for all your hard work and i hope that you do find the winner.
And last but not least sleep well RAMBO as 2mrw you have a date with destiny!!
#1977
April 3rd, 2009 21:22
Cornish Sett or Rambling Minster to win for me. Have backed Darkness, when it was at 40/1, but thinking about it’s ‘Strong Gale’ connection now and thinking it won’t get anywhere – going off it when the country seems to be getting on it! But I suppose it’s still the one on the stats that could shoot down the ‘winner profile’. Interestingly McCoy mentioned he’d ridden Darkness and mentioned it’s error prone ways (this evening on Radio 5 programme from a pub in the Cavern) and seemed to prefer Southern Vic, whatever the ground. Saw Rambling Minster trying to chew Keith Reveley on BBC preview programme!
#1978
April 3rd, 2009 21:24
Now don’t you all get givin’ toasts and thanks an all…get me blubberin’ at this end and I NEED to make it through to tomorrow lol.
Will extend all my MANY thanks tomorrow.
Last ‘lil pieces of analysing now…
#1979
April 3rd, 2009 21:36
just a quickie which horse has connections with Philson run and nil desperandum who both finished 4th at big odds
#1980
April 3rd, 2009 21:46
No time for quizzes Phil just tell us the answer so we can back the horse now before the masses arrive .
#1981
April 3rd, 2009 21:46
Follow The Money – An alterantive to trends. Eve of GN report.
Where to begin. Well lets start by saying things look good for trends fans.
I have monitored GN prices at 18.06, 20.15 and 21.20 tonight. Lets start by giving the result of the final price check at 21.20 (using Odds checker.com)
Blue – positive
Red – negative
Top six tonight at 21.20
BLUE – Positive
1. Offshore Account 14pts
2. Kilbeggan Blade 9pts
3. Rambling minister 8pts
3. Black Apalachi 8pts
3. Darkness 8pts
RED – Negative top six tonight
1. Hear The Echo 11pts
2. Southern Vic 10pts
2. Snowy Morning 10pts
4. My Will (!!) 9pts
4. Cloudy Lane 9pts
4. Chelsea Harbour 9pts
4. Silver Birch 9pts
Top six tonight using scores for all three assements (at 18.06, 20.15 and 21.20)
Combined scores tonight
BLUE – Positive (+ Red score for same runners)
1. Offshore Account 35 Blue 0 Red (not a trend hosre at all)
2. Darkness 23 Blue 0 Red (!!)
3. Rambling Minster 21 Blue 2 Red (late surge as predicted)
4. Kilbeggan Blade 26 Blue 4 Red
5. State of Play 21 Blue 3 Red
6. Butlers Cabin 24 Blue 6 Red
RED (cant win)
1. Snowy Morning 30 Red
2. Cloudy Lane 28 Red
3. Hear The Echo 29 Red
4. My Will 27 Red (amazing!!)
5. Chelsea Harbour 26 Red
5. Silver Birch 26 Red
6. Southern Vic 25 Red
7. Golden Flight 23 Red
8. Himalayan Trail 22 Red (amazing!)
Now the all important weekly totals
BLUE – Positive
1. Darkness 45 Blue 0 Red (!!)- get on!
2. Parsons Legacy 44 Blue 3 Red
3. State Of Play 43 Blue 1 Red
4. Butlers Cabin 38 Blue 7 Red
5. Irish Invader 34 Blue 18 Red(careful!)
6. Offshore Account 33 Blue 3 Red
and for info
Rambling Minister 18 Blue 4 Red
RED – Negative (cant win)
1. Southern Vic 43 Blue (shame)
2. Big Fella Thanks 38 Blue
3. Silver Birch 27 Blue
4. L’Ami 23 Blue (no!)
5. Black Apalachi 21 Blue (amazing)
6. Himalayan Trail 20 (never!!)
Conclusion.
You need to be careful with some of the scores which represent a one or two day gamble (i.e. My Will was all the rage for a day or two but losing support by the hour). There is a late gamble on Offshore Account but he does not meet the trends at all.
Day after day there has been one runner who got support with no negatives and that is Darkness.
Rambling Minister is making a big late surge as expected as will gain support tomorrow no doubt as will Darkness. Kilbeggan Blade and State Of Play also well spported (trends fans can sleep well tonight).
So for “Follow The Money” taking into account all polls the top in my opinion are:
1. Darkness (consisent support all week – no negatives
2. State Of Play
2. Rambling Minster (big late surge)
4. Parsons Lagacy
5. Kilbaggan Blade
5 Butlers Cabin
7. Offshore Account (for a place- late big surge but why??)
Now my own final selctions are:
1. Darkness !!!
1. Rambling Minster
Big Gap
2. Kilbeggan Blade (no Class 1 place)
2. Parsons Lagacy (too many days off?)
2. State Of Play (too heavy?)
6. Butlers Cabin (if he gets round this time – good place propects but no form this season!)
I really am happy with the two best – The Dark One and Rambo against the field.
Good luck everyone (but I dont think we will nedd it. There will be a short price update at about 12.30 tomorrow morning.
P.S Did you know that Darkness won four of his five Chases on Good ground? (and I doubt the ground wll change rain or no rain). I think he will be one of the late gambles tomorrow.
#1982
April 3rd, 2009 21:50
Amendment (confused Blue with Red in one chart)
Should read
“and for info
Rambling Minister 18 Blue 4 Red
RED – Negative (cant win)
1. Southern Vic 43 Red (shame)
2. Big Fella Thanks 38 Red
3. Silver Birch 27 Red
4. L’Ami 23 Red (no!)
5. Black Apalachi 21 Red (amazing)
6. Himalayan Trail 20 Red(never!!)
#1983
April 3rd, 2009 21:51
Systemsman – Thank you! I can sleep easy tonight then, knowing that I got my big Darkness bet in absolutely ages ago. I have a bit of a soft spot for him.
Good luck to everyone. Safe journeys.
#1984
April 3rd, 2009 21:52
Its not a quiz i want to know i heard something about it but missed the name of the horse so someone must now?????
#1985
April 3rd, 2009 21:54
well I am on 5 of those 7 – only HT missing from my 6 bets. luckily all of mine have made it there on the day.
#1986
April 3rd, 2009 21:58
great that someones keepin it real!
great work systems, just confirms my thoughts regarding who can win that I am not on! if Rambo doesn’t win I and many I think loose, unless I get 2 places,
great to see some of my favourite bloggers finally tonight!
good luck
#1987
April 3rd, 2009 21:59
Note that Darkness, Rambo, KB, PL, and BC were all in my pre-christmas GN winners profile posted on Dec 17th (SOP OR was too high).
#1988
April 3rd, 2009 22:05
bit more to the question the sire to PHILSON RUN AND NIL DESPERANDUM was UN DESPERADO this was also linked with best mate im sure i saw something on the blogs a while ago so come on which is the horse thats linked to these famous horses
#1989
April 3rd, 2009 22:07
Systemsman, are you fudging it or are you are predicting a dead heat?
I agree with you largely, but common sense tells me Darkness will struggle to win in a big field over 30 fences over 4.5 miles because his jumping record is poor.
In my opinion, two of the more likely trends to be bucked (or rather amended) are the ‘days since last run’ and ‘weight’ which would give State of Play a cracking chance.
Horses rely less on race fitness compared to 10 or 20 years ago because of the improvements in training facilities. SOP is also a rare beast that prefers to run fresh so this rule arguably does not apply to him, i.e. it may actually have been a handicap if he had raced in the last ten weeks or so.
Also, the increasingly compressed nature of Phil Smith’s handicap is encouraging a higher weighted horses to succeed and it will be relatively easier to cart 11+ stone round Aintree on good going, as expected this year.
Either this year or over the next few years I am sure the weights trend will change by a few pounds.
I’m sticking with Rambo to win it though – by a good margin if he wants to.
1, RAMBLING MINSTER. 2, STATE OF PLAY. 3, DARKNESS (if he gets round).
Good luck, Systemsman, you are the backbone of this blog and I am extremely grateful for your expertise, good nature and willingness to share.
#1990
April 3rd, 2009 22:10
Well done chaps as with nearly everybody else i’m rooting for Rambo and my saver bet on the day must be Darkness now,took a massive hit on Garde Champetre but reinvested on Minster.Can’t wait now !!!!!
#1991
April 3rd, 2009 22:17
hi guys found it the horse in question who is related to BEST MATE , PHILSON RUN, AND NIL DESPERANDUM IS MALJIMAR, , so it wont run this year but remeber the name for next year
#1992
April 3rd, 2009 22:23
well said johnny.
I am stll so stuck on my final bet, but as I cross off one I add Parsons Legacy! a horse I’ve never gone for, Darkness could get my last coppers but oooH that jumping!!! at aintree!!?! still can’t do it, tmw will be too late for this one too, anyone else trying to hold out on the dark tide!
#1993
April 3rd, 2009 22:31
Philson Run and Nil Desperandum (UN DESPARADO) the only connection I can find is with MALJIMAR(runs tomorrow in fact)who was entered in the National but goes in the race before the big one .
#1994
April 3rd, 2009 22:34
Its getting late, I know, but thanx to you all as you have made this years ‘national’ even more special than it is…
Stephen,(or anyone who can reply), how do i do a ‘Tricast’ and ‘Exacta, and how much will it cost?….
Have thoroughly enjoyed these past weeks, and feel that have started to know you and i for one will have a little void come 430pm tomorrow…Rambo all the way!!!!!!!!!!! bye
#1995
April 3rd, 2009 22:35
As for Darkness, by tomorrow we’ll all be saying either ‘why did we back a horse that can’t jump’ or ‘how did a horse with such class get such a low weight’ ?
#1996
April 3rd, 2009 22:37
Maureen, I really think you are right!
#1997
April 3rd, 2009 22:58
Is anyone tempted by the place only option on bluesq (and possibly others) like I am. it makes sense to me to cover off those iffy bets you think you’d regret not betting on…
#1998
April 3rd, 2009 23:02
Maureen – I wouldn’t back Darkness if my life depended on him but stranger things have happened – if he wins fair play but I’d like to think he has little chance
#1999
April 3rd, 2009 23:02
i’m all done on the national and just cant wait till tomorrow. got paid on thursday on walkon and sunnyhill boy and around evens today. my extra money wont go on the national now. i’d be getting on three mirrors and fairyland either side of the national. good luck to everyone, including the jockeys and horses. if they cant all finish then let them not finish safely.
#2000
April 3rd, 2009 23:04
” Johnny Valentine says:
April 3, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Systemsman, are you fudging it or are you are predicting a dead heat?”
Reply:
Honestly Johnny I cant separate them . If and its a BIG if Darkness gets round (remember he has never fallen and loves Good ground)he will give Rambo a serious challange. He has a very similar profle to COD last year.
Both Rambo and Darkness are attracting late money. Darkness has ben supported each day this week with no Reds (not even one!) so there is plenty of confidence in the money market. His speed rating is slighly better than Rambo and both meet all the key trends. Wouldnt it be great to see them in a neck and neck finish? I have had Darkness a clear 2nd then joint second but he now deserve joint first with Rambo on all counts – I will be cheering them both on (still tryng to work out the late gamble on Offshore Account – can anyone help on this?)
Butlers Cabin may go of Fav (the “kiss of Death”). Please dont let Rambo be Fav on the day!
#2001
April 3rd, 2009 23:12
Darkness also has the dreaded Strong Gale link as well; however, something that is really worrying me is that the Reveleys are driving from Saltburn early tomorrow [oops today]; what if they break down on the way…this has been bothering me since I read that they want to keep to a normal routine.
#2002
April 3rd, 2009 23:13
Systemsman why does Offshore Acccount not fit the trends? Won a couple of races over 3 miles this year, good weight, age, not French, only 19 days since last race, all the qualities of a National winner
#2003
April 3rd, 2009 23:41
maureen says:
April 3, 2009 at 10:35 PM
As for Darkness, by tomorrow we’ll all be saying either ‘why did we back a horse that can’t jump’ or ‘how did a horse with such class get such a low weight’ ?
I think you have it on the nose there maureen, he either jumps it and the non-backers like me look like fools or he falls and we (the non-backers) can say told you so.
Darkness the most dangerous horse I haven’t backed for sure, but still will not back such a bad jumper ever.
#2004
April 3rd, 2009 23:43
i agree that he fits the trends and i posted earlier that i missed him (not sure of the replies. he hasnt completed a chase for 2 years and 1 hurdle prep race was my negatives.
#2005
April 3rd, 2009 23:44
Systems you bowed to the weight of D’ARgent pressure last year don’t you think darkness is the same?
I certainly hope so.
#2006
April 3rd, 2009 23:45
Offshore Account won a really good race at Punchestown; he’s by Oscar..do they generally need soft ground? Is he the sneaky Irish horse that has sneaked under the radar? There seems to be money going on him.
#2007
April 3rd, 2009 23:47
have a saver bet on darkness. if the only worry is that he may or may not jump round and you think if he hits a good day then back him. if you think there’s a chance then you cant rule it out. that’s why i backed him but i cant believe he will get round. on the reverse i cant have cornish sett whatever anyone tells me as he didnt stay last year and he wont improve enough this year to win.
#2008
April 3rd, 2009 23:50
systems has narrowed my combination bets down to 4. i am on butlers cabin, rambling minster, brooklyn brownie and kilbeggan blade. as i have never won either i think you have saved me money not having 6 in the combo. thanks for the analysis.
#2009
April 4th, 2009 00:38
Hi Wacky,
Like many people I’ve been impressed by the weight of support for Rambo and I have my fingers crossed for everyone who has backed it.
I’ve just backed Butlers Cabin which I know will amuse you as you aren’t keen on that horse. I’m not particularly confident though but I think he fits a lot of what you would generally look for in a National winner and I’m a big fan of Irish National form, even though it is getting a bit old now.
The more I watch last year’s race the more I’m convinced he would have gone very, very close and I thought there was a lot of the old sparkle at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir.
As I say, hopeful rather than confident!
Good luck to you and everyone else – I’ll do a proper post thanking everyone after the race tomorrow.
#2010
April 4th, 2009 01:21
Well i for one cant sleep at the moment but in a way thats a good thin as i’ve just be re-reareading the posts from earlier and Brody if your still reading then i do apologise as i may of been a bit snapp in my replies to you but please understand it was pre race nerves as i really do suffer them badly (but as said earlier that is a good sign for me)
Anyway after looking through all stats, trends, off the cuff comments, wacky systems, KJ’s systems and even lucky systems/numbers/magic potions with leprechauns symbols then i am still sticking with my selections (dont ask me if im happy with them as someone has mentioned the dreaded Kelami word to me!!) but my final four have not changed and remain Rambling Minster, State of Play, Darkness & Parsons Legacy (for the record our lass has just picked out Cant buy time and she normally picks a top 6 horse) anyway lets hope all horses jockeys and all involved/watching return safely and may the winnner revel(ery) in the great grand national history.
If on this journey i have upset anyone i do apologise, if on this journey anyone feels like thanking me then dont just return soon so we can try again, if anyone wants thanks off me then you sod off cos the real thanks goes to those people who dont ask for it and pour there hard work inbto this site for no return. They are the ones that make this site the one it is today. (yeah admin that includes you too
)
Good luck all for tomorrow catch you all on sunday hopefully with a bad head
#2011
April 4th, 2009 02:58
So Brian, ” a load of ponced up idiots ” is what you think of some of your fellow bloggers. Would that be a small load or a big load.
#2012
April 4th, 2009 03:55
Its 4:55am and I can’t sleep. Whoever mentioned it being like xmas eve is so right lol.I feel like a child again. Not bothering with the racing post tomorrow as all it will do is worry me. Will get up an watch morning line tho. Just submitting tips to the OLBG blog thing now and beating Victor which should be easy as per.
Tempted to stay up and watch GP Practice now, not bother sleeping. This is possibly not a good idea. Although think I’ll be awake on pure adrenaline later today. Watched back Rambo’s last 2 performances this hour and I have to say that Blue SQ Gold Cup win was very impressive. Made me a lot more confident, especially when I forget just how well in he is on the handicap, I’m following all the other trends so much that I keep forgetting this major point. I think he has an outstanding chance today.
Shame to see L’ami drop out of your list entirely systems but ah well. To be fair his price has stayed constant on Betfair for 2 days now. Ah well, lets hope Rambo wins ay? I will honestly think about you all if he crosses the line. Cheering myself and thinking, gosh I wonder what each one of them is doing right now
At this point in time I will say until tomorrow, (who knows I might post again in an hour lol) goodnight to all and let us have a winner later today.
Ells
1
#2013
April 4th, 2009 03:56
GP Qualifying I should say!
Ells
1
#2014
April 4th, 2009 05:01
Good Luck to all, off to work now
but my final selections are
Rambling Minster
Darkness
Cornish Sett.
S.O.P
the rest will be competing for a place i.e
My will (no money on)
Butlers Cabin (no money on)
Brooklyn Brownie
Kilbeggan Blade (no money on)
Good luck to all, and thanks
been great again, hope were all celebrating at 16:30
#2015
April 4th, 2009 05:49
Anyone know why My Will has taken such a big walk ou to 11 on betfair?? Been trading in the 9s all week – not that i have anything on i really don’t want this to win its the ultimate trends breaker….
Reports are it is raining in Liverpool – won’t hurt rambling any. Could we see drifts in the prices of SOP or Parsons legacy though?? Clearly there’ll be a weight of money around Irish Invader and Offshore account today
#2016
April 4th, 2009 06:21
Am I the first one up then?!
#2017
April 4th, 2009 06:27
Systemsman says:
December 18, 2008 at 9:51 PM
Grand National Ante-Post 2009
Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can! Part 2.
Well I have now completed a review of all potential GN runners listed on Odds Checker.com up to 200/1 and a number of other horses suggested by contributers to this web site. …..
…
RESULTS
There are 34 possible runners with a OR of 136 to 146 (I extended it a little to cover one or two good runners we could miss)
Of these 34 runners there are 22 possible runners with a OR of 136 to 146 AND a RRR minimum rating of 144.
Of these possible 22 runners there are 14 who also have won a Chase worth 17K or more.
The 14 are (and the very possible Grand National Winner 2009) – listed by lowest odds first, highest last
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
Now how many pass all nine trends (with TS set at the lower 111) and are the most likely winner of the Grand national 2009?
ELEVEN!
These are in my order of merit with Star rating:
1. Butlers Cabin OR 138 (joint top). RPR 150, TS 131 *****
1. Himalayan Trail OR (joint top). RPR 145, TS 140 *****
3. Black Apalachi OR 146. RPR 158, TS 138 **** (Beecher Chase winners winning GN in same year? But its time they did!)
4. Darkness OR 143. RPR 156, TS 133 *** (if he runs)
4. Garde Champetre OR 144. RPR 154, TS 143 *** (won Class 2 only but good TS rating of 143)
4. Parsons Legacy OR 146. RPR 153, TS 141 (is this the year?) ***
7. King Harold OR 136. RPR 145, TS 140 (keep an eye on this one! Good 140 TS rating) ***
8. Kilbeggan Blade OR 141. RPR 145, TS 124 (low) *** (progressive but can he carry the extra weight?)
9. Chelsea Harbour OR 138. RPR 152, TS 122 (low). (TS 122, 9th last year!) **
10. Southern Vic OR 143. PRP 159, TS 146 (good) ** (last win Oct ‘06, only won at up to 24f)
11. L Ami OR 140. RPR 163, TS 165 (had his chance twice?) *
SORRY Systemsman, great work and we all appreciate it massively, but lets not go re-writing history. Rambling Minster IS NOT in there.
#2018
April 4th, 2009 06:37
Somebody asked why Offshore Account doesnt meet the trends.
Just the ONE run this season, and only 6 chase runs, although he has won 4 of those. Would be taking a big leap of faith to think he can win this one.
#2019
April 4th, 2009 07:24
Morning Y’all!! Cheers to all the GN bloggers that have shared your knowledge,opinions and general snippets of info. Excellent work. Think I’m the only one who isnt on Rambo tho, I can almost hear the commentator now… and it’s Rambling Minster at the Elbow, he’s 12 to 15 in front, full of running and going further clear…. DOH!!! Oh well, got to stick to my guns and leave him alone. Is anyone worried that they didnt want to ‘spook’ him by trying him over national type jumps at home? oops, sorry if thats just made any old doubts resurface, lol. I think most Bloggers have included Darkness to uphold the trends, so we could still all be celebrating later on. Good luck to all, cheers!!!!
#2020
April 4th, 2009 07:31
Please don’t anyone get carried away by talk of rain overnight. It will have taken the edge off the ground but nothing else.
It’s a beautiful spring morning here in Liverpool. The heat between now and race time will put the ground back to good in my opinion.
No need to be compiling a list of mudlarks!!
#2021
April 4th, 2009 07:45
Brian, absolutely no need to apologise for anything, best of luck with your selections today.
#2022
April 4th, 2009 07:46
The pre-race nerves are getting to me now! Still regard Rambo as my clear No 1 but I must say I think my 2nd choice, Kilbeggan Blade, could run him close. Watched the race again this morning when KB beat RM earlier in season, and I think i’m right in saying that KB would come very close to upholding all the trends (i’m ignoring the fact he hasnt met the Class trend!).
Good luck everyone.
Here’s hoping Rambo wins, and if not then somehting that fits most of the trends!
#2023
April 4th, 2009 07:47
Rambling challenging for favouritism!
#2024
April 4th, 2009 07:56
Let’s hope Rambo gets no further than JF !!
#2025
April 4th, 2009 07:57
The money’s puring on Rambo on Betfair. Can’t be haing the “back to back favourites” trend, especially as I’ve backed Rambo to be favourite at 16s.
#2026
April 4th, 2009 08:10
rambo challenging for favourite … dont worry its only 9am the housewives and pinstickers are still in bed and the whos mccoy and walsh riding contingent .
#2027
April 4th, 2009 08:14
channel 4 team tip – Kilbeggan Blade
titan on channel four text tip – state of play
#2028
April 4th, 2009 08:17
Morning All, Thanks for all contributions and advice it’s been fantastic. Am a Rambo fan along with Darkness and Kilbeggan Blade. Think Comply is an excellent place bet.
Anyone any thoughts on 7′s for Rambo insurebet 4 with Paddy’s
Cheers
G
#2029
April 4th, 2009 08:19
just been looking at the topham result yesterday (one circuit of the gn course i believe) firstly all 3 carrying 10 stone and secondly first home with 11 stone or more
11th and 12th place
#2030
April 4th, 2009 08:23
Oh no the entire Ch4 team were going for Rambo, I want out!!
I have 10 pts Rambo, 5 pts Darkness and 1 pt Cornish Sett. I’d like a bigger price 4th choice for a place bet now that you can get 1-6. Any worth a try?
#2031
April 4th, 2009 08:26
a few people seem to be talking up battlecry chris.
#2032
April 4th, 2009 08:31
I’am monitorig prices hour by hour and will update 12.30 to 1pm (the later the better really). Nothing will escape our watch. Very quiet right now (the “calm before the strom” – the “eye of the hurricane”!!)
#2033
April 4th, 2009 08:35
Himalayan Trail seems to be heavily tipped in newspapers etc.
#2034
April 4th, 2009 08:37
“The Last Fling says:
April 4, 2009 at 5:49 AM
SORRY Systemsman, great work and we all appreciate it massively, but lets not go re-writing history. Rambling Minster IS NOT in there.”
Please dont insult my intelligence. Rambo was inserted many many times after the 17th Dec as he was accidently left off the list as at the time there were about 140 runers to check and Rambo was about 100/1 or something (I checked by price order). Check the figures- he fits and I ammended the post many times (just back check – others can confrim this). I think an apology is in order.
Nxt year I will use a spred sheet so accidents dont happen.
#2035
April 4th, 2009 08:53
Yeah thanks dragonman, only 1-4 on the exchanges but I think 12 is worth a place for Battlecry
#2036
April 4th, 2009 09:00
systemsman awesome work and a very good morning to you … if any of the selections you made win i shall be a superbly happy individual as my list is identical with the addition of brooklyn brownie.
#2037
April 4th, 2009 09:06
john Francombe is a shrewd tipster and he tips state of play, rambo and KB, with battlecry snatching a place…do we need to worry about battlecry?
#2038
April 4th, 2009 09:11
Don’t have to worry about Battlecry nicking a place if you’re betting to win! Can’t see him doing better than 3rd so might be worth a place only be but on current conditions, you’d expect quite a few finishers so I won’t be backing him.
#2039
April 4th, 2009 09:14
Big 2 are looking pretty red on oddschecker. Neither to place I reckon.
#2040
April 4th, 2009 09:16
dragonman if it helps I have a small saver on Brooklyn B (RPR 143 1pt too low) so we are indentical twins now.
#2041
April 4th, 2009 09:16
What your views will the winner come from between 11-3 and 10-9
if the stats one blogger has said that winner won’t carry 11Ibs lower than top weight and 12 Ibs above bottom weight am I right in my way of thinking if so Rambling,State of Play,Butlers,Parsons,Darkness,Irish invader all in that bracket its quite fascinating the amount of fancied horses maybe the stats do count for a lot next step pick the winner.
#2042
April 4th, 2009 09:21
Just doing some checks Rambling is 2/1 Fav now to go off favourite is that good or bad news for us here on this my personel opinion is that he will not go off as most if not all first time gamblers or once a year will be looking for a 20/1 or 33/1 dream winner to tell the mates Monday morning but we know it aint going to happen IS IT?
#2043
April 4th, 2009 09:22
Regarding the research and tips on this site: a big thanks to all.
Daniel Edwards in depth analysis has been amazing this year and so has the stats from Crips, Silver Birch, Pablo, Brian, Speedyseagull, Wacky and Systemsman and many more. The research has taken great time nad has been really appreciated.
To be frank, some info is presented by the giver as if they are orcale with lots of shouting. But it is to the others who humbly and quietly present your equally important findings that I especially take a bow to. You are the real stars of this blog.
I sometimes feel a little on this site there can be a little sheep following and bowing – I for one always try to maintain a little degree of honesty and independence.
No one on this site is a means of main support to the rest, ALL the hardworking statisticians are of EQUAL worth and are a priceless piece of this chain. Thanks
#2044
April 4th, 2009 09:24
FYI Boylesports are paying top 6 for phone and internet customers only so be wary if going in to a boyles shop
#2045
April 4th, 2009 09:27
Thabks to you as well showlad with setting up the league table, showed who was really fancied at an early stage. Good luck to all today
#2046
April 4th, 2009 09:29
“The Last Fling says:
April 4, 2009 at 5:49 AM
SORRY Systemsman, great work and we all appreciate it massively, but lets not go re-writing history. Rambling Minster IS NOT in there.”
Please dont insult my intelligence. Rambo was inserted many many times after the 17th Dec as he was accidently left off the list as at the time there were about 140 runers to check and Rambo was about 100/1 or something (I checked by price order). Check the figures- he fits and I ammended the post many times (just back check – others can confrim this). I think an apology is in order.
Nxt year I will use a spred sheet so accidents dont happen.
Woaaaah there fella don’t go misquoting me i think you quoted the wrong poster – i’m very appreciative of all the hard work you’ve put into this forum again this year – win or lose…
#2047
April 4th, 2009 09:30
You are very welcome TC
Just to say re the Top 6 Table, it looks like a few of us may have missed the deadline being brought forward, so I will be including all Top 6′s submitted up to midnight last night (we are all busy and quite a few posted up their Top 6 and seemed quite oblivious lol that that deadline had been brought forward).
#2048
April 4th, 2009 09:42
Quick price update:
Rambo looking very godd (please not the FAV!)
Darkness losing ground.
My Will looking negative.
OffShore Account both positive and negative.
Battecry negative.
Black Apalachi both positive and negative.
More later – the market has only just woken so lots more chane possible in next three hours.
Rambo fans – its looking good!!
#2049
April 4th, 2009 09:42
Dark Horse:
Make no mistake an improver this year in Class 1 company; a nice prep win carrying 11′ 12″ and second over these fences this season to Endless Power on unsuitably soft ground. Feather weight.
To me the progressive horse totally overlooked in the betting has to be BROOKLYN BROWNIE. Unlike many shortening fancies based on hopes, tips and rumours he is SOLIDLY PROGRESSIVE and meets many though not all stats. His style in coming secong in the Grand Sefton over the GN fences this season really impressed me: “was still a remote sixth turning for home. He then began to stay on past tiring opponents and, moving into second at the Elbow, looked a threat to the tired winner, but could not claw him back. He may come back for the Grand National if he gets in and better ground ed than he encountered here would help him”
Just thought I’d alert all to a no fuss simple progressive type with BAGS of potential going into tody’s Big Race.
#2050
April 4th, 2009 09:47
Sorry “Last Fling” and sincere apologies. My comments were direct at Daniel Edwards. Its one of those days and my nerves are on edge (you can tell by the many mistakes in typing).
Come on Rambooooooo
Come on the Dark One
Bring it on!!!!!
#2051
April 4th, 2009 09:49
Hi
New to all this – altho have been reading the blog for the last few weeks – and also picked up on it late in the day last year (altho using the “blinkers” stat, I had red-lined COD).
Anyway – interesting question – why is Butlers Cabin rated 147 on the GN weights and at Chelt and future races is rated only 135??? Surely his “Aintree” form cannot be that good – after all he was 147 last year too…..
I was about to have a saver on him (already done Rambo and Darkness) as I have this thing about horses falling at Beechers 2nd time and then winning (West Tip – ok many years ago!!) – but it’d hurt so bad if BC won and I was not on – but “-13″ on future Hcaps is worrying – and also the fact I thought he ran a fair prep at Chelt – but 13lbs lower – worrying…..off his proper mark he would not even be in the field!!!
#2052
April 4th, 2009 09:56
Going still GOOD, even with overnight rain:
From Aintree site:
Course Aintree (Grand National)
Next Race Saturday 4th April
Report Date Saturday 4th April; 8:15 am
Going Good (Good to Soft in places)
GoingStick
Additional Information 5mm of rain overnight
#2053
April 4th, 2009 10:07
Sorry “Last Fling” and sincere apologies. My comments were direct at Daniel Edwards. Its one of those days and my nerves are on edge (you can tell by the many mistakes in typing).
Come on Rambooooooo
Come on the Dark One
Bring it on!!!!!
no worries – genuine mistake just didn’t want you thinking it was me trying to pick people’s work to pieces…
) Not that i’ll care if Rambo or Darkness romp home…
Why can’t they run the National at 10am?? It sure would help with nerves – 4.15′s a long time to wait till!!!
#2054
April 4th, 2009 10:12
Waiting for the Racing Channel update on Sky at 11.30 – what no Morning Line on GN day!! BBC 1/2 ITV and Channel 4 -nothing this morning !!!! And we pay a licence for this!
#2055
April 4th, 2009 10:18
Racing Post bets so far:
12650 bets My Will
11730 bets Rambling Minster
10350 bets Butler’s Cabin
9384 bets Black Apalachi
7889 bets Comply Or Die
7774 bets Darkness
7107 bets Kilbeggan Blade
6739 bets Big Fella Thanks
6187 bets State Of Play
5934 bets Irish Invader
Can you feel the tension building?
So the serious punters like Rambo – is the winner in this list of 10?
#2056
April 4th, 2009 10:21
Rambo on ATR channel just now
#2057
April 4th, 2009 10:22
ooooohhhh i hope so !!! backed a few in there with a couple i have not ….. makes the race a bit more exciting that way dont you think?
#2058
April 4th, 2009 10:23
Reveley says todays Good/Good to Soft ‘perfect’ !!
#2059
April 4th, 2009 10:25
The Racing post internet verdict on the GN at:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd#top
“Having exceeded expectations in the Gold Cup in his preparation for this race, probable favourite My Will is clearly well handicapped, as well as likely to stay, but he’s not the only one. RAMBLING MINSTER (nap), in particular, looks to have what is required, having put up an improved display since the weights were published and one confirming earlier evidence that he comes into his own as an out-and-out stayer. Comply Or Die can figure again but has been hit with a big rise in the weights and Black Apalachi may prove better handicapped. Darkness is not the most solid option but arguably brings the most scope for improvement with this step up in trip and would be a huge danger to all if he copes with all the rough and tumble. Brooklyn Brownie has potential among the outsiders.[RA]
Just love it Rambo Nap and the Dark One a danger (agrees with me in full – IF he jumps and does not fall he is a danger to all!! – but will he get round?)
#2060
April 4th, 2009 10:29
RE my dark horse BB, Racing Post has him as ‘potential among outsiders’
One to watch and have in your final calculations today.
Best value today. Still at 39s on betfair
#2061
April 4th, 2009 10:36
ANYONE HEARD ANY NEWS ON G LEES FITNESS FOR TODAY?
#2062
April 4th, 2009 10:40
God I am tense now. Come on rambo.
#2063
April 4th, 2009 16:08
so whos pin sticking next year lol?
#2064
April 4th, 2009 16:11
what happened there then, did Rambo get a knock at the 18th by a faller, altho he did look well behind at that stage, think we need to work a bit harder next year! Anyone got the Irish national stats
#2065
April 4th, 2009 16:13
all i got was state of play, very bad
#2066
April 4th, 2009 16:13
The Kid won. Winner profile reigns, 30/30, picked wrong welsh Nat 2nd!!, State of Play, e/w 33/1, just about saved the money.
#2067
April 4th, 2009 16:14
frnch stat blown , odds stat blown
#2068
April 4th, 2009 16:14
I bet none of us feel as bad as Aidan Coleman, rode Stan instead!
#2069
April 4th, 2009 16:15
Extremely annoyed with myself. Well chuffed this at the winner cos pretty much meets all the stats. Just gutted I dismissed it for a reason I then disobeyed later on. Had it down as a good chance with class and distance but then dismissed for finishing unplaced last year. Other reason was the price.
However, extremely happy the french trend has been broken, and very happy a horse who has been unplaced in a previous year won. The two trends I majorly broke have been broken so I’m happy about that.
Very disappointed and felt flat after the race but starting to take the positives from the race now. I haven’t checked them all, but he meets almost all the trends. At least we all have a job next year but need to pay less attention to the market me thinks.
Was Mon Mome in your pre-christmas trends systems – bet he was.
Must say fair play to I think it was Pablo and possibly 1 other who said that Mon Mome was badly hampered last year and therefore can’t be dismissed.
Sorry to all and thanks for a great run up. I don’t think any major stats have been broken. Quite worring that the top 4 all carried 11st+ tho.
Ells
1
#2070
April 4th, 2009 16:16
To think that Mon Mome came out on the winner predictor tool on this site – overlooked completely – gutted
#2071
April 4th, 2009 16:17
ALL the stats I and a lot of others used remain though. He was on my longlist, but that list is so long it has to be narrowed down, and personally, I just could not have him winning, having gone up in weights from last year, and seemingly being a worse horse!!!
Oh well, here’s to next year. Who do we fancy?
Flintoff must be good value. Anybody find a market yet?
Out of interest, can all those with their profiles say why Mon Mome wasnt on there lists? What it just the price?
#2072
April 4th, 2009 16:21
Think it was Daniel, the SP, and I’d followed Mon Mome and he seemed to have had such a hard season.
#2073
April 4th, 2009 16:26
god im gutted a 9yr old at 11.0 who would have thought congrats to those who had mon mone least saved my bacon with a decent eachway punt on state of play
sad news for hear the echo rip
heres to next year any ideas????????
#2074
April 4th, 2009 16:27
guys, altho putting a lot on rambo i’m glad the french stat is broken, i guess a lot of us were swayed by the prices, not a lot of stas broken and the main ones are still in tact
#2075
April 4th, 2009 16:28
Regarding next year, i’m going to start taking a look at ARBOR SUPREME, only a young horse but fits the bill at the moment
#2076
April 4th, 2009 16:31
MY WILL ran a superb race for me. Big pay out on the e w money. Sad about rambo but thats racing for you.
#2077
April 4th, 2009 16:34
Reasons I didn’t back:
Had him on my shortlist of around 8 horses until we discovered the Top 5 Hennessy trend: didn’t think he met it – noticed he actually came 2nd in Welsh National – dunno how I missed that (Didn’t bother to check again with horses over like 50/1).
- So (in my eyes at the time) didn’t meet that trend (wasn’t upholding this stat as be all and end all)
- Still at this point I had “Like! – Big weight if wights go up. But good stamina and class. Reasonable form. But NO! Finished 10th last year – not good enough.”
- From then on he still hadn’t been red penned but was finally crossed out on final analysis as poor form and ran a hard race AFTER Cheltenham in Midlands National.
I broke that trend with L’ami and Cornish Sett anyways. Wish I’d watched his race too like I did Lami’s and watch his hampering.
But price drift on Betfair and Aiden Coleman’s selection finally finished him off for me. In hindsight wish I’d had a saver bet but ah well. Probably the best possible winner I hadn’t backed I would say. Worried about the 11st thing tho – look at the top 4. Lessons for next year:
- Horses over 11st must be given a shout if meet trends and looking class.
- French Horses CAN win the National (as I said)
- Unplaced horses can come back and win if there is reason for their unplacing (as I said).
- Any price horse can win providing they meet the stats (all the better really, means we can get good value).
I think that’s about it really
Ells
1
#2078
April 4th, 2009 16:40
i think the lesson i’ve learnt from this, is to try and avoid looking at odds before backing horses, hopefully we can bounce back with the scots and Irish nationals
#2079
April 4th, 2009 16:43
Cmon Wacky (and the rest of you, you know who you are) we all told you a french bred would win this year, we just didn’t get the right one!
Re: Next year, I dont think any of the ones in the shake up this year will be involved next year; too much weight for most of them. I like Flintoff, Character Building, and possibly Nadover. Will probably have a bet on Flintoff, as I can see him running a massive race at Ayr in two weeks in the Scottish National.
I am slightly concerned that there were 15 within 6-7l two fences out and 7-8 going over the last with a chance. I wonder if they went a tad slow and this is why theres been a bit of a funny result. He went away like a train from the elbow. Has anybody seen the time yet?
#2080
April 4th, 2009 16:47
wow! Think we all still have plenty to talk about, in fact will probably take us till next years grand national to go through everything. But that’s the magic of the national, isn’t it?
Hope no-one lost too much. Sad about Hear the Echo.
#2081
April 4th, 2009 16:47
Mon Mome was the first horse I backed when the weights came out; then, when the weights started to go up and he seemed to sulk a bit in some of his races I thought he might not run anyway. Every other horse that I have backed I have doubled up on when the price has gone out..except Mon Mome. I backed him at 33/1, so I feel as if I’ve lost a £20 note and found a fiver!Strangely, he follows the unusual trend of a horse improving it’s position from the previous year; Nil Desperandum who was sadly killed in the run up to last years race when trained by Venetia. For a small horse carrying a fair bit of weight he ran up the inside and jumped superbly. Interesting that classy horses with a lot of weight filled the minor places..perhaps the day of the old plodding types is well and truly over, and yet we had rank outsiders in 5th and 12th[?]. Definately the race is changing with the compression of the handicap. A lot to think about. My overall profit on the race is the princely sum of….£1.25. Back to the drawing board.
#2082
April 4th, 2009 16:54
Well I said double same letters was a bit of a lucky thing this year!
wished I’d listened to myself and backed all 3 of those in the race and be done with it!!! Gutted. only went for BB and umming and erring about II til the off, agggghhh
MM_On Crisps longest standing stats list! with 8 others,
In my tiny notesbook of january feelings with 7 others.
Ruled against because of lack of support from here and in market and also ran recently in big race which was a suprise and not noted by anyone else. I thought this was a long hard race with 11-12! too close to the GN and they may as well not turn up for this HA! but noted in my book though as staying on!! but wouldn’t have picked in end over studied!!! think I should go back more to my own thoughts next year, too confusing here, although the fact that we were all big on Rambo and scared in the end it wouldn’t happen I think was born out. No confidence after seeing reveley family interviews at all here! thats where the bags of nerves were coming from, never got into it.
Had COD!!!
saved me some moneyback but not enough 
new he wouldn’t win but would place. Fairytale replica of last year nearly happened but I knew one would beat him atleast!
I knew this site would crash before the race too, ashame.
Failed to back SOP in the end even tho in my top6, he did well fresh at 4m4 and well done supporters. Hope you all atleast made most of yer moneyback with two places.
#2083
April 4th, 2009 16:56
Spent £99 overall, eliminated Mon Mome from my shortlist because of the odds and being French, however I did put 25p e/w on the outsiders and £5 e/w on State of Play so I got 43 quid back. Overall loss £56.
As Maureen says, back to the drawing board!
#2084
April 4th, 2009 16:57
I lost 1/2 point overall, inc. Betfair commission. I can live with that!
On to next year.
Echo comments re Hear The Echo. I thought I had posted that already but it must have been on a different site. Real downer.
#2085
April 4th, 2009 17:01
well i had £5 e.w on the winner but took 33/1 back in feb, after 2 bad runs i took it as dead money, and never looked at the horse again. ok i recovered some losses but 33/1 for a 100/1 shot
Maybe on Monday we should set out early and buy some shares in the big 3 they must be rolling in it now.
I think we need a few days to reflect then maybe post what we have learnt this year, i think there might be some lessons to be learnt from all this.
Well won’t be long now only 365 days to go
#2086
April 4th, 2009 17:20
Maureen your £1.25 win made me smile probably would have been prices I’d got if I’d backed him in jan. His price was the most disturbing drifter in last week for me, I thought he was going to be pulled out! ‘must be whispers coming out about him,’ I thought?! it was noted he hadn’t come thro in his coat on course more negatives, if you’d listened to that bookie on the beeb you’d never have got it.
Interesting how both MM and COD had relatively hard races before this and came on for it. Now thats another thing we don’t like to see!
Gutted about BA too, horses rarely lead whole of 1st circuit and finish! so thought it was coming.
Main stat that holds up all the time is you need a good jumper that stays!
simple.
#2087
April 4th, 2009 17:28
Gutted – did anyone win?
French bred cant win trend goes out the window (but i did suggest it would except I had L’Ami on my list at the time).
The trends were not that far out you know except for the bloody price 100/1.
Pre-Christmas winners profile only 2pts out!! Stephens trends stand (Mon Mome was 2nd in Welsh National Dec 2006)
Now for revenge in 2010:
New Pre-Christmas trends are (only one small change):
1. OR 136 to OR 148 11/12 trend (we used a max of OR 146 this year – bloody hell) – change + 2pts
2. PRR 144 minimum – stands (11/11 by 15th Jan)
3. Won Chase whoes value is £17,000 or more 12/12 – stands
4. 3 Chase wins 10/11(11/11 by 19th Feb) – stands
5. Age 8 to 12 13/13 – stands
6. Completed in 10 Chases or more (10/11, 11/11 by 15th Jan) – stands
7. TS raing minimum 111 (13/13, 128 best 8/12)- stands
So just the 2pts out – shit!
I also think the 1/2/3 in a Class one chase stands – not sure how long this goes back (a long way i think and confirmed this year).
This should all help find the winner by Xmas this year!! (only about 150 runners to assess in DEC!)
Sorry most of us did not win but we bloody tried did we not? Useing trends every 12/15 years we are going to lose one and this year is one of them. On to 2010!!
#2088
April 4th, 2009 17:33
Forgot to mention as others have stated being placed in the GN does not stop you winning next year (except I had Cornish Sett as a saver and not Mon Mome). State Of Play my best result but I only backed winners.
Licking my wounds now and God I have plenty!!
#2089
April 4th, 2009 17:33
Oedipe says:
April 2, 2009 at 3:54 PM
Maybe someone can confirm, but following my quick analysis, the horses that fit every one of the RP Ten Year Trends are
Mon Mome
Butler´s Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Reveillez
Golden Flight
L´Ami
Cornish Sett
Kelami
Just stick to the RP next year
#2090
April 4th, 2009 17:33
Got any early fancies systems
Have u got any stats for the Irish Nat?
#2091
April 4th, 2009 17:35
Last 3 winners on the card at Aintree….100/1, 66/1 and 66/1.
That’ll never happen again!
#2092
April 4th, 2009 17:42
I think the time was 9m 35sec, slowish but the ground was good to soft.
#2093
April 4th, 2009 17:43
Too right Systems, look out next year, it’s going to be a Venetia Willimas double- Flintoff 2010!
#2094
April 4th, 2009 17:44
Will look at more lessions from this race in a few days when i have got over it. But as for the trends most of them stand (the good news)but forget the price and French can win (bet next year its 20/1 or under having said that!!!)
#2095
April 4th, 2009 18:05
What an awful race that was.
A shocking start to the race with the three false ones. By the time he did let them go Rambling Minster was miles behind. Yet to see what went wrong with him but something was amiss. Again, I wonder what would have happened had Character Building been in there?
It didn’t feel like the National to me at any stage. A terrible end to months of planning. This was as much of a race as the void one was in my eyes. A 100/1 winner, Cerium in 5th?!?! Cerium, you have to laugh. A poor race with a poor winner. Mon Mome is down as a National winner but the name looks very out of place in the roll of honour.
The whole aura around the Ante Post market and race itself had been a strange one this year. Let’s hope for a better race next year because this was awful.
I did manage to gain back half of my outlay from State Of Play’s 4th.
#2096
April 4th, 2009 18:07
A loser on the day. I backed Mon Mome on Betfair when weights came out and gradually layed off to leave a break even if it won – due to some poor runs and The French thing. i had other bets with bookies which did not include mon more so down overall.
i had pondered over a couple of factors in the run up to the race – one was the won more than 1 race in the season issue.
Last year i deleted all those who had won more than the 1 race and this year changed my mind and left in quite afew horses who had won 2 or 3 races – possibly shows horses who dont get involved too much at the winning end are the ones to look out for.
i have already made my rules for next year
which are
Delete horses who are given more than 10.13 in original weights.
Delete those who have not won over 3 miles
delete those with less than 10 previous chase runs.
delete those who fell in the season
delete those with more than 3 career falls.
delete those under 9 and over 11.
delete those with less than 4 runs in season
delete those who had not won race of more than £20000.
All i need to do is copy this and put in a safe place – The National is the only race i look forward to so ony 364 more days for a chance to get my money back
#2097
April 4th, 2009 18:17
Has anyone found out any reports into Rmbo’s disappointment, think he might have been hampered at the 18th cause his jumping seemed to be fine
#2098
April 4th, 2009 18:27
According to a friend who was watching it on Turf TV or something, he made a massive mistake at the 18th, of his own doing, and was therefore pulled up shortly afterwards.
I think its a bit harsh to say it wasnt a proper National etc as Stephen says. No need to be bitter about it. Im gutted I didnt get the winner, but I still loved every second of it (or at least up until they jumped the last and it was obvious Butlers Cabin wasn’t going to find enough in the tank!)
#2099
April 4th, 2009 18:30
Oh, and Re: the time. 9.35s is slow. I think the ground was good to soft, good in places, but drying all the time and looking at the other races, I would say it on the fast side of good to soft.
Looking back through my A-Z, im struggling to find a race run on this sort of ground that slow.
Only times slower I can find are the 2 years in the past 10 or so where it chucked it down, and then Numbersixvalverde’s win, where it was gd-sft but raining at the time/before the race, which obviously deadened the ground somewhat.
The way Mon Mome pulled away and the fact there were so many in it going over the last…..it was certainly a strange one.
Can anybody else recall such an open national? Personally I cant remember more than 4 going over the last in with a chance, so to see 7-8 of them was pretty incredible!
#2100
April 4th, 2009 18:40
it was one of the strangest nationals i have ever seen.
I must admit i never even looked at Mon Mome out of form frenchie
or so i thought
le bo***cks
#2101
April 4th, 2009 18:51
It really was a poor National in my eyes. I do have reasons for this theory. As I said above, when you get a 100/1 winner and the rank outsider in 5th at 100/1 you have to question it a little bit. Not just any outsider either, Cerium.
Couple this with the fact that, as you point out, there were a whole host of horses still there jumping the last. The start was poor too.
Something just didn’t add up to me about the whole thing. Not just on the day. The build up with so many things going wrong was also a strange one.
I think we will find that this race will become an oddity rather than the norm, in time.
A very strange race all round. It was over before it began really.
I’m not bitter as I got some nice each way money back on the 4th. But it was such an odd little race.
#2102
April 4th, 2009 19:09
Oh joy!
Is this thread due to return next year? With the same sages? Can’t wait
#2103
April 4th, 2009 19:22
As many have said the winner did pretty much follow a lot of trends so its very annoying to have missed such a price. I never discounted it because of form or the poor result last year or even its odds. I’m ashamed to admit it was the FR for me, I have to wipe out the biggest trends in this game.
#2104
April 4th, 2009 19:22
professor waffle we may not have backed the winner and neither did anyone at 100-1 but what we have done is enjoyed the last few months talking about the race and studying the form, during that time we have become quite friendly and have becomea little chat family.
so yes we are all sore about the result, but i for one will be back here next year to hook up again with all the old crew
#2105
April 4th, 2009 19:25
Take no notice of mr waffle, the fact is we have used the stats here to find the winner and if it wasn’t french then the majority of us would have backed it, i think we need to bounce back and look at the irish national
#2106
April 4th, 2009 19:42
This is the first time i have looked at a site like this and have been very impressed by your knowledge and really enjoyed the build up. Before i became influenced by your annalysis i took a £100 e/w bet on comply or die so having put £200 on Rambo to win at 20/1 i am still in profit. Was and have only ever been concerned on how easily complys chances where dismissed by your system even after a supper run at Cheltnam which did put him in the frame. But in fairness his name was mentioned for a place as race got closer.
To recap many thanks will make appointment next year
#2107
April 4th, 2009 19:43
Professor Waffle: but for teh sake of just 2pts my Pre-Christmas winners profile would have found the winner at 100+++++/1 for us all and will find the winner next year very early (there are some other big trends that stand to back up any possible selections).
For all the faint hearts, for all who were afraid and for Profesor Waffle you missed the fun the joy and yes the pain.
But for the many brave and hearty men and women who did take the risk in 2009 I dedecate these line too you:
(From Braveheart the movie)
“I see a whole ARMY of my countrymen here to do battle in the English Grand National. Ay, fight and you may die, run and you’ll live. At least a while. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here in April 2010 and tell our enemies that they may take our lives…. but they’ll never take our chance to win!!’
We lost most of us but by God it was fun was it not (even if it hurts right now)!
We will find the winner in 2010 and I agree this years winner was an “odd one out” unlikely to be repeated for some time.
Twice the winnings next year – bring it on!!
#2108
April 4th, 2009 19:49
MM had little very recent form yes, but not awful! had very good season earlier from nov- jan, and 2nd in welsh national year before too! You could say he went off the boil a bit but therefore saved something. I wasn’t disappointed with his race in feb behind Rambo at all, had a hard winning season! thought they looked after him there, and his staying on under 11-12 last time out can’t be called bad at all! just sorry I let this one slip as he was friendless!
He was hardly a 100-1 shot! be fair
when I was choosing between pairs, as it seemed right thro the card this year…weird, MM and L’Ami were 33s, they went flying in opposite directions in price very recently, infact SOP and My Will were the 2 in the top10 with nearly all reds before the off!?! weird!!
I really thought something must be amiss with MM to go out that far, close to the race, but bookies patterns have changed, they seem to stitch it up!! tight and early! nasty taste there!
Also think the rain got in alot more than most people thought and there were clues earlier in the day it was going to take a real stayer. All fears came true except the carnage! see Tony pushed his horse too far again! the will to win ey!
The horses with a real chance were up there and weighted as such, the challengers with questionable class or jumping skill! and stamina were not.
Watched all race again, it does seem Rambo was in thick of it down the middle and just started going backwards, little traffic probs, or jumping probs, nothing… as nervous as the rest of his family reveley!!?! YES I think so, one fell infront but little interferance and he may have clipped that fence slightly but it was already over
Crisp, we got the wrong one! Cornish just did his best to keep the deja vu theme going really real!
and weird
#2109
April 4th, 2009 20:00
Yes, a flat feeling overall. I’m tempted to dismiss it as a poor National too but that may be unfair on Mon Mome. He was never on my list. In fact, I’m not sure he would have been in my top 10!!!
I know he got a few mentions in passing on this blog but I would be surprised if any of us hit the bookies hard, based on what was written.
Well done if you did.
I think we may have got distracted by what appeared to be an identikit winner in RAMBLING MINSTER? He seemed almost too good to be true. I remember saying a few weeks ago after Cheltenham that things appeared to be becoming clearer but that I hoped we were facing the right way when the fog fully cleared. We weren’t.
Mon Mome offered decent clues to form part of Plan B just in case Rambo didn’t deliver, although realistically was he ever going to make us a profit or at best just cover our stakes if things went wrong?
Rambo was ticking along OK today I thought in around 15th or 20th place after the first circuit, but he was hampered by Fleet Street falling and he veered sharply to the right to avoid being brought down.
He was pulled up before the next fence. Perhaps he suffered an injury? Having said that I thought he would be ridden nearer the pace so there may have been an early problem and young Reveley may have decided enough was enough after losing impetus by taking evasive action.
Did the horse get giddy pre-race like George Reveley feared? The false starts would not have helped. He was certainly on tip toes as he paraded past the grandstand.
STATE OF PLAY saved my blushes and he actually gave me a decent profit thanks to the 33s on offer a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, he whacked a couple of fences which set him back. If he returns to Aintree at a similar weight next year I think he could improve on his 4th place.
2009 will go down as a rogue Grand National for punters and we can’t even blame the crafty Irish trainers or the weather this time.
There will be some nuggets to pick out of the ruins which may help us find the winner next year. The fight goes on. I’m certainly up for it.
#2110
April 4th, 2009 20:14
What a let down. Have a good record in the national before today. Had 8 horses and none got home. Just goes to show how random it can be. Lost alot of money. Sticking to 1 or 2 horses in the future. To make it worse, a friend who had a random bet on the day, won a grand. I had been studying the race for months. Sick as a parrott.
#2111
April 4th, 2009 20:15
What long term trends still stand? I think it will help us all to know for the early bets next year before we all disappear till next year.
How about the 1/2 or 3rd in a Class 1 Chase – 20/21 I think.
Its now OR 136 to OR 148 for the winner by the way 11/12). And i think the 11.01 is still the max top weight on the day (last 11 years I think).
Ran in at least 10 chases I think its a 39 year trend.
I’am going to try not to be distracted by all the small saver bets next year due to last minute nerves.
#2112
April 4th, 2009 20:16
feel a bit gutted as have backed just about everything else v williams has turned out as shes been on fire this term will not be swayed by mccoy mania next year
he is just not going to win the race
#2113
April 4th, 2009 20:21
and 5 of the first 6 11st plus this stat will be next to go.
#2114
April 4th, 2009 20:30
Hi guys,
Sorry for everyones loss, I agree was a very poor race.
I was following your system & thought it was great.
I had:
Rambo
State of play
My will
Comply or die
This morning I thought to myself why the girlfriend was placing a bet why not put afew £’s on afew outsiders best thing I ever did as I had £££’s on rambo & £3 on the winner as well as afew others, Luck has it made a small profit.
Here’s to next year
#2115
April 4th, 2009 20:35
I wonder if Rambo just didn’t take to the fences from the start. Disappointed with Brooklyn Brownie and Kilbeggan Blade. Also would have liked to know which horses were wearing cheek pieces for the race, as was surprised to see Darkness wearing them [don't think he's worn them before]. And, yes, last minute top up bets to be avoided in future [I say this every year!]. Also, knew this already but, Venetia Williams; very good at putting horses in handicaps….the Mark Prescott or Luca Cumani of NH racing. Very shrewd lady.
#2116
April 4th, 2009 20:41
Rambo seemed to jump fine until 18th when he looked a little hampered but he was a long way back then. I think he found the ground too quick, something didn’t appear to be right tho, have the Revelys said anything regarding rambos run
#2117
April 4th, 2009 20:46
What a massive shame. Luckily I had Comply or Die and State of Play so managed to break even – plus I had an evens bet on the going which won, and the winner to win by more than five lengths! so not bad overall.
utterly disappointed that COD didn’t win – i love that horse. I had a friend that won £1000 on MM when he put a hungover bet on – gutted as i had put so much work in!
Oh well. My Will, Offshore Account or Battlecry next year (if they race).
Thanks everyone and good luck!
Onry
#2118
April 4th, 2009 20:46
bobby jo, you are right only very few of us had COD as a place, well DEFINATE as you can be place! didn’t meet the stats and 11-6! but stand out chance after comeback at cheltenham I thought. Stats aren’t everything!! IMO
FR stat was an obviously outdated relic I thought we’d managed to overcome mostly! think the next gen of Strong Gales will finsh that stat security too, SV did quite well!
and several others but MM was a cool customer and nearly noone went down the inside!!! happy to see a good national type win myself, not a no hoper at all, one of only 9 that met longest stats too!!! sad to loose sure, but wouldn’t if I’d spread evenly, got carried away just a little with xxxxx can’t bring myself to write his name 
but my heart goes out to all the big time punters here
I find it hard to keep my own thoughts with such strong characters telling me X can’t win! but other times find it and certain, kind people extremely helpful and supportive.
Together we are as knowledgable as the best of them! we can still say that and get a head start on the field! but the bookies were ahead of us even! short odds early and lengthen them out later when we’ve all gone off em! GGGRRRRrrr…. yes bad 3x starter certainly bad for xxxxx
#2119
April 4th, 2009 21:04
BFT next year?
#2120
April 4th, 2009 21:07
KJ
take a look at Arbor Supreme, really like the horse, he’s entered in the Irish nat
BFT will surely be near top of weights
#2121
April 4th, 2009 21:16
agree kj.positives i pick out of today is possibly
bft,sv(IF SOFTISH)thought he ran well on unsuitable ground and also black app. thought he was brilliant till fall.all these 3 i think on list for next year with maybe irish rapter after winning topham.
#2122
April 4th, 2009 21:20
yeah its definately proven that the handicapper will punish!.. shame, great performance by a 7yr old, maybe he’ll escape either the handicapper or the bookies one year in the future when he’s 9 or 10, he didn’t place and had 11st+ anyway tho!? I do like Arbor will take a look at that and for next Aintree nat Abbeybraney could be my early outsider.
#2123
April 4th, 2009 21:26
Well, what about that? Can’t believe MM was 100/1 shot. Didn’t fancy it but still had to be a decent proposition at those odd. Can’t believe I didn’t pick it. Still, made some decent money on my Betfair lays and am nicely ahead so can’t complain. Fhe (FR) voodoo had to go, though I’d rather it was BC who’d done it.
Think the thing to learn for next year is not to “follow the money” and also to wait for the weights to be announced. A good old fashioned renewal where any of a number could have won.
Til Next year, really enjoyed the ride and let’s get it right next time.
Final thought for the year is with Hear the Echo’s connections. Lovely horse who literally left everything out there. Would have loved to see what he was capable of going on to do.
#2124
April 4th, 2009 21:28
I had Irish Rapter! but its not the same as winning this obviously. Can he do another lap tho? Gutted BA fell he was loving it, I was loving it, even tho I couldn’t see my biggest worrying bet xxxxx for love nor money! I still loved it, but can we run it again, restart?
#2125
April 4th, 2009 21:30
Indeed Notelppa.
#2126
April 4th, 2009 21:52
looks like war of attrition may have been the better bet…
#2127
April 4th, 2009 22:07
Systemsman says:
April 4, 2009 at 7:43 PM
Professor Waffle: but for teh sake of just 2pts my Pre-Christmas winners profile would have found the winner at 100+++++/1 for us all and will find the winner next year very early (there are some other big trends that stand to back up any possible selections).
For all the faint hearts, for all who were afraid and for Profesor Waffle you missed the fun the joy and yes the pain.
But for the many brave and hearty men and women who did take the risk in 2009 I dedecate these line too you:
(From Braveheart the movie)
“I see a whole ARMY of my countrymen here to do battle in the English Grand National. Ay, fight and you may die, run and you’ll live. At least a while. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here in April 2010 and tell our enemies that they may take our lives…. but they’ll never take our chance to win!!’
We lost most of us but by God it was fun was it not (even if it hurts right now)!
We will find the winner in 2010 and I agree this years winner was an “odd one out” unlikely to be repeated for some time.
Twice the winnings next year – bring it on!!
IVE FELT PRETTY DOWN since about 4.30 or so, but that’s cheered me up no end Systemsman!! Well said!
Im not convinced on Arbor Supreme (only 8yo next year, already with an OR of 140) BUT that said he is better than a lot of others and it would only take one decent run for him to come into contention.
Ive been through recent Becher, Hennessy and Welsh & Irish National runnings, as they are the best trials for the big one. From them I havent been able to find anything other than Royal County Star with the right sort of profile, although I wont be backing that one because he wasnt even entered this season!!
Character Building and Flintoff for me for 2010. Dont forget, the last 20 winners (except for Red Maurader) had all placed in a C1 chase over at least 3 miles IN THE SEASON BEFORE their National win. So, next years winner has already done this, in theory. Should help narrow things down a bit.
BUT THAT SAID I think I am going to take a little break from this site and the GN in general. I dont think I enjoyed it as much this year as i have in previous years. Perhaps I was a little over saturated with the GN and all its trappings today. I want to get that sick feeling in my stomach for those 10 minutes or so again next year. I think over preparation this year took that away….
Shine on guys and girls….Shine on.
#2128
April 4th, 2009 22:58
Not really posted here but thanks all for your contributions – really enjoyed the discussion and information passed on this forum. I didn’t even have Mon Mome in my top 10 so no complaints about the winner, though roll on next year!
#2129
April 4th, 2009 23:18
Daniel for any early work whenever you decide to start (mine starts in ernest in Dec 2009 and will be posted here before Christmas)as you say you need to back check at least the last two years of the Becher (top 2), Hennessy (top 5), Welsh, Irish and Scots National runnings (top 3).
Like you i need to rest now and get the whole think out my system (I no doubt will have a fun bet on the Derby). That placed in a Class 1 chase at at least 3miles (24f) is so vital for next years short list and will help in shorting the wheat from the chaf(its why I couldnt support KB this year).
On reflection having lost I still have confidence in the main trends but just a bit annoyed with myself that I set the limit on OR at 146 (+2 more than the previous norm) and not 148 but thats life.
364 days from tomorrow – so long.
#2130
April 5th, 2009 01:54
IT ANNOYS ME WHEN PUNTERS COMPLAIN THIS WAS A POOR RACE BECAUSE THEY GOT IT WRONG. THIS WAS A TOP RACE ,9 HORSES IN WITH A CHANCE TWO FROM HOME
#2131
April 5th, 2009 03:27
Now last year I put my foot in my mouth with C.O.D. This year I did not have M.M. in my top 5 list but he did show up in the top 8, using 3 falls in the analysis tool. The 3 I left out were L’Ami, Mon Mome and Cornish Sett because of the FR. and little polveir stat. But thanks to Crisp ’73 and pure, pure luck I did a small bet on M.M. with Betfair. Silly, Silly price on a horse that was 9/2 Fav. for the Welsh Nat. He should have been 33/1 or 40 max. Now Crisp ’73 I hope you don’t mind me using this. I was looking over last years posts and you said at 1.50pm on race day – “Mon Mome – placed in Welsh National and I live close to the trainer ( it will deliver at a good price one day if not today keep it in mind for next season )” – spooky. Well that made my mind up, FR. or not. You must have a crystal ball in you house.
#2132
April 5th, 2009 07:10
“alanham says:
April 5, 2009 at 1:54 AM
IT ANNOYS ME WHEN PUNTERS COMPLAIN THIS WAS A POOR RACE BECAUSE THEY GOT IT WRONG. THIS WAS A TOP RACE ,9 HORSES IN WITH A CHANCE TWO FROM HOME”
That’s why it was a poor race. Take out the betting and the money aspect and just look at the race. The fun runner (Cerium) was 5th. That’s what leads me to believe it was poor, plus the start and the fact there were so many in with a chance turning for home.
#2133
April 5th, 2009 07:47
miinnehoma says:
April 5, 2009 at 3:27 AM
Now last year I put my foot in my mouth with C.O.D. This year I did not have M.M. in my top 5 list but he did show up in the top 8, using 3 falls in the analysis tool. The 3 I left out were L’Ami, Mon Mome and Cornish Sett because of the FR. and little polveir stat. But thanks to Crisp ‘73 and pure, pure luck I did a small bet on M.M. with Betfair. Silly, Silly price on a horse that was 9/2 Fav. for the Welsh Nat. He should have been 33/1 or 40 max. Now Crisp ‘73 I hope you don’t mind me using this. I was looking over last years posts and you said at 1.50pm on race day – “Mon Mome – placed in Welsh National and I live close to the trainer ( it will deliver at a good price one day if not today keep it in mind for next season )” – spooky. Well that made my mind up, FR. or not. You must have a crystal ball in you house.
WOW! that is spooky!! As you say Miinnehoma, no way a Welsh National fave should have been 100/1. Problem was, I didnt know he was 100/1!! Even Jim McGrath didnt as he called them home; you could hear his shock when the price flashed up on the screen after he had called them home – “100/1! A 100/1 winner!”
#2134
April 5th, 2009 07:57
What a fool I have been. I posted this back in February…
“Stephen says:
February 18, 2009 at 9:40 PM
The stats I shall be using to narrow down the field come race day will be as follows (thanks to great work by everyone on this site)…
1. Age 8 to 12
2. Won 1+ Chases over 3m+
3. Run in 10+ Chases
4. Won a Class 2+ Chase
5. Won a Chase worth £17,000+
6. Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight
7. Top 3 finish in a Class 1 Chase over 3m+
8. Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
9. TS of 128+
10. RPR of 144+
11. Last run no greater than 50 days
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)
Maybe they should change the Christmas song to “The 12 trends of Aintree” ”
If I had indeed used those trends above once the field was known it would have left me with…
Rambling Minster
L’Ami
Cornish Sett
Silver Birch
Mon Mome
I think next year I WILL stick with the 12 Trends Of Aintree and see where it gets me.
#2135
April 5th, 2009 08:07
Well guys and girls – im sure were are all feeling a bit down this morning and most of us probably woke up thinking did that really hapen yesterday ??…what we have learned from yesterday is that horse racing can still make fools of us all and there really isnt anything such as a dead cert . however in the same vein as systems man and others , this great race has been very kind to us down the years and we need to just take this on on the chin and be brave…it prob more galling that if you tap in the main trends in the winner predictor tool , mon mome is in there..!! however ill put my hand up and say a french bred horse who finished 8th in a midlands national just didnt look good enough . my lesson learned for next year and maybe we should all take note – is just to back the horses on the predictor tool just for a few quid no matter what odds just to cover ourselves. anyway i pay tribute to the brave men and women who graced this site and tried their best for everybody … weve had one bad result and were feeling the pain at the moment but lets rise up and be strong again for next year
lets take some inspiration from rudyard kipling:
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream – and not make dreams your master,
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ‘em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings – nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a Man, my son!
Rudyard Kipling (1865-1936)
#2136
April 5th, 2009 08:25
Miinnehoma- thanks but I didn’t back it this year!
Lots of nonsense about unplaced horses not winning, glad that’s been done. So much can go wrong, as I’ve said before, in these long distance chases and if a horse is 5% below his best the result can vastly change. Mon Mome had finished 10th last year. Didn’t have a good preparation. 2nd in a Welsh Nat but had also finished 8th. UR and 9th in Scots Nationals. 2,3,8 in 29f chases. For future reference a good performance at 28f/29f+ is always in the form book and worth noting. I hold my hand up to most of you who have far more knowledge about the day to day racing-horses,trainers, form – but in my opinion, when looking at the National I don’t think it’s worth wasting to much time trying to explain, compare, or analyse why so and so, got beaten by, this and that, on a particular day at Fontwell. And no more distraction about ‘FR’s!
Really pleased that the winner profile; top 5 in Hennessey, top 3 in Irish, Scots, Welsh Nat/ top 2 in race over GN fences/ 3 wins at 24f including 1 at 28f won through.
*The 2009 Grand National Winner*
MON MOME, 100-1, breaking FR bred 100 year stat.
aged 9. 61/61, age trend.
form; 218278
top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 42/42
won 1 of last 10 chases, 28/28
6 prep runs. 2-8 prep runs 27/27
days since last run, 20, 2-8 weeks 48/49, 2-7 weeks 27/27
weight,11-0, less than 11-4, 26/26, bottom half of handicap, 20/20
top 3 C1 chase, 24/24
won at 27f (won at 24f or more, 38/38)
placed at 30f (31/38 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didn’t race beyond 27f)
155 RPR, 144 or more 19/19
155 RPR left handed, 141 or more 19/19
career best RPR 155 posted this season
150 TS
Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 16/16
3 career falls/ur, 2 or less 12/15
8th last time out, 7th or better 20/24
2nd in Welsh Nat,
A -top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B -3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more – 30/30
(A is 16/19, 12/12)
100% trends met. Not a bad profile is it.
#2137
April 5th, 2009 08:52
A poor race?
I think a hell of a lot of the fancies just weren’t up to it, the hurly burly, the distance, the fences etc. But we had Hennessey winners and placers, Gold Cup fifths and a previous winner in the frame and the highest rated OR winner since Lord Gyllene. Lots were in with a chance but it was the same in Hedgehunter’s year.
PS,Mon Mome also had a 50% 1st,2nd,3rd strike rate over fences.
PPS, how did Mon Mome fare on RedRum’s horsey,’who do you think you are’ breeding list?
#2138
April 5th, 2009 08:56
Maybe poor race is the wrong word. I think it was a strange race. Especially with Cerium finishing 5th. It was all just a bit of an oddity it seemed. But Mon Mome was in the 5 that were shortlisted using my 12 trends so I’m gutted I didn’t follow them now!
#2139
April 5th, 2009 09:24
Hi everyone,
Thanks a million for all your work on this thread and all the others throughout the year. Please see my latest thread about moving on to there with your posts from now on as this thread is getting a bit too big!
Thanks again
#2140
April 5th, 2009 09:31
There was a shortlist posted on this blog that produced a 93pt profit at SP to level stakes. But I doubt anyone saw it.
Well done to those brave enough to speak out against “Rambo” and voice their own opinion.
The aim should always be to seek out the value. The value in Rambling Minster was there when he was priced at 20/1 or more, but it was gone in the weeks leading up to the race. I was on at average prices of 33/1. Still a loser, but more potential reward for my risk.
The French stat seems to have been the main reason for bloggers dismissing the winner.
I would suggest for next year, you keep a more open mind, avoid putting a red line through horses and discuss the chances of ALL horses.
Admin – something you might consider is creating a permanent blog topic for the discussion of EACH horse. Having a general discussion thread has proved difficult to navigate and locate pertinent information.
This might encourage bloggers to debate the chances of each runner on their merits and not simply put a red line through them because they fail on one or two long standing stats.
#2141
April 5th, 2009 09:55
Well I am conducting my own reveiw of why i lost and will add it to my knowledge for next year.
The good news is that the key long term trends do stand.
MY own excuse is that I looked in detail at OR136 to OR144 with up to OR146 as a possiblity (ofcousre with a 2lb drop in weights I should have made this 148! – easy after is it not?)- I always expected using this sort of meathod I would lose one every now and again (about 1 in 10/12)and this year was one of them. For those looking at OR147 and above the winner was findable.
My sincere aplogies if i let some of you down and you lost – all I can say is that I tried my very best and lost my own money as did my adult son. It was freak year for the starting price (or was it? – see below).
Now some have said that the price made this winner unpickable so dont follow the money. Wrong.
On weights day MM was priced at 25/1 to 40/1 in the Racing Post list and I drew a line under all the runners more than 40/1 (Rambo was last on the list) – i even put a dot next to Mon Mome (and six others on weights day but not sure why now)- goes to show that some times a quick asessment can get better results than 3 months hard work! So on the whole (if you used 50/1 this year a extra 12 runners would have been included down to Conna Castle) the winner will be 40/1 or less on weights day in the RP list (they used 11 bookies for their list).
I also know that we can get it down to a resonable short list at Christmas with a very strog possibility it includes the winner.
I dont think it will be a 100/1 winner next year do you?
Now i’am going to crawl back into my cave and lick those wounds!!
#2142
April 5th, 2009 10:07
Stephen great trends which i will also use. Loved your work this year – really good – thank you.
Your key trend (1/2/3 Welsh, Scots Nat etc etc was accurate as were 8 of my 9 Pre-Christmas winners trends [only the OR was wrong]).
When you use 3m + do you mean 25f and more or 24 and more? – just to clarify.
I will be using your work and my own to get that short list at Chritmas
Double winnings next year, so we wont lose this year will we? We just have to wait 364 days to get our hands on the blood sucking bookies money.
#2143
April 5th, 2009 10:12
You’ve let no-one down, Systemsman. Far from it. Take a break and come back stronger, eh?
If it is another 100/1 winner in 2010 we’ll have it!!!
P.S. I hope Admin can arrange a thread for those who want to pitch in some observations between now and Christmas? It would be a shame to lose continuity.
#2144
April 5th, 2009 10:27
Oh my god what a boil over for all who do the stats and trends keep up the good work and do not let the fools who come on and knock you .
My wife has picked the winner for the last 3 years including Mon Mome I do not know how she does it and she will not tell me I am only jealous only human nature 5 E/W she had yesterday and I won’t see a penny of it so until next year folks ADIOS
#2145
April 5th, 2009 10:50
Hope this makes it better guys as i did think Rambo was travelling well until 18th and who knows what could have happened from there
“Rambling Minster was wellfancied for this on the strength of his success in the Blue Square Gold Cup. However, he was baulked on the first circuit and was in the rear when badly hampered by the fall of Can�t Buy Time at the 18th, being pulled upbefore the next”
Think he may have also picked up an injury from this
But oh well onto next year, i think offshore account ran a cracker just needed a few prep runs behind him
#2146
April 5th, 2009 10:56
Hello to ALL.
re ‘Proff Waffle’, what price is friendship? You have obviously missed the point. No, we didnt find the winner and quite a lot of us(me included)have lost money but, for me at least, the whole experience of coming to this site has been a GREAT JOY and PRICELESS.
re Stephen. Yes, you’re right, it was’nt a poor race but it was indeed strange;two false starts,so many jumping the last together, two 100/1s top six etc but, in hindsight, I think the stats that this site provided still hold strong, and I for one cant wait til next year…
Thanx to everyone,Proff’ Waffle included, Bye for now…
#2147
April 5th, 2009 11:08
Ok guys well it’s the morning after the day before and a little time for reflection.
Firstly Rambo…..i am still confident that he was the right choice, and if i were to do it all again i would still come out with the same opinion…..what went wrong?
When i look back over his races he starts from behind and then creeps forward but never really shows that well and seems to be left with to much to do……his last 2 races he ran much closer to the pace and took it up sooner and seemed to enjoy it much more being in the thick of it from mid race. This i believe is the key to this horse and the explanation of his recent improvement in from, from the start yesterday it was obvious that they went back to the old style of riding him and he never really looked happy and hit 1 or 2 then had Fleet Street fall in front of him, and from that point it was all over.
So to recap i don’t think that we should think that we chose the wrong horse(of course it proved we did) i just think that jockey trainer did not run the race to suit the horse.
Ok now on to stats……
After going through the initial 136 or so runners in December i was left with 12 which included the 1st 4 home, before the Welsh national i had £5e.w at 33/1 on Mon Mome for the national (how sick am i today taking a 3rd of the sp) because of him not showing there and his next 3 runs were not so good either i discounted him because i go on what i see if i am not impressed with a horses performance then i won’t back it irrespective if it meets the trends or not, good performances win nationals not stats or trends.
I think that i have learnt the following from this year.
Personally i think that i started looking at the race far too early, next year i won’t even start till late January.
I will stick to the basic trends and stats next year, this year i think we all got carried away with looking for far to many new trends which only clouded things, also we need to apply common sense to the trends all this cannot win because it’s got head gear last year and cannot win because it is French this year have cost us dear…when you think about it does what the horse have on it’s head and where it comes from really indicate that it does not have the ability to win this race? some were talking of Butlers cabin not being able to win because he was French, even though he had never even raced in France, personally i would have liked a more constructive approach like he cannot win because he is a 135 rated chaser off 147.
Also next year i will not be taking any notice of the odds of horses, this year we were looking at horses priced below 33/1 but when i give it some thought if a horse meets the trends/stats, and i am impressed with it’s latest form and think it could run a good race in the national then does it make sense to eliminate it because the bookies disagree with me price wise, the more i think about it the sillier it is…..but in saying all of the above i still would not have fancied the winner, even though i backed it at 33′s purely because i was not impressed with it’s last 2/3 runs.
I know this is a long post but finally i think that it is very ungracious to say that this was a poor national.
Mon Mome look back over his form the 9/2 Fav for the Welsh National, look at his last 10 races and look at some of the names that have finished behind him, he was never a no hoper and the bookies got it wrong with his price.
Comply or die…it says it all last years winner good classy chaser, great performance this year with a stone more on his back.
My will Once again great form, 5th in the gold cup look at his form has raced against the good and the great of this game and finished in front of many.
State of play charlie hall winner, Hennesy winner, another who has real solid form raced with the great horses and has many behind him in previous races.
when you look into this years national result it is as solid as form as we have seen in many a year, sure might be a 100/1 winner but it was the bookies who got it wrong not us.
Just 1 thing that alarms me is top 4 all 11st or over, maybe in his quest to get the good horses to run the handicapper is compressing the field just that little bit too much?
#2148
April 5th, 2009 11:23
Systems, your work as usual, was superb.
Can you please post the pre-Christmas trends you use.
Thank you once again
#2149
April 5th, 2009 11:44
You can take most things into account, but sometimes a horse simply gets spooked by the grand scale of Aintree. George Reveley feared as much in his pre-race interviews when he explained that Rambo could be a temperamental so-and-so.
The parade and false starts will have added to his anxiety.
I watched the race again this morning and Rambo was lucky to survive hitting the 10th (I think), and after that he gradually eased off before Fleet Street’s fall in front of him at the 18th made the decision for young Reveley.
Real shame, but I don’t think we’ll see Rambling Minster come back next year.
James Reveley (Rambling Minster, pulled up 19th): “He didn’t take to it and just didn’t like it. He jumped OK until he made a mistake down the back and he was looking after himself after that so I pulled up going down the back on the second circuit.”
#2150
April 5th, 2009 11:55
Good Morning all, on the morning after the day that was.
Firstly let me say that for the general member of the public yesterday was a great reace – full of excitement and I can never remember a National with so many with a chance at the last. To suggest a poor race because we, in the main, got our top selections wrong is utter folly.
Also I have one HUGE point to make – if we bury heads in the sand as if yesterday’s result was a blip and all will be fine next year – “it’s business as usual” – then it is UTTERLY DISASTROUS and means we have learnt NOTHING.
I think we have learned a CRUCIAL need to adopt CORE trends and then have optional add ons SEPARATELY, that we can stylise INDIVIDUALLY.
How many of us rated Mon Mome, but were put off by such stats as French bred and the Odds etc etc etc?
These 2 stats for me have never and NEVER will be CORE STATS.
C’mon we got Silver Birch as a lesson ONLY 2 YEARS AGO – though I did thank God win on him too because I REFUSED to discount him because of his odds)have never and NEVER will be CORE STATS.
I did well yesterday, through my regard of Mon Mome on my core stats and my belief that a National placer can never be discounted wholly. Recent poor form and hugely drifting odds on betfair made me think there was possibly current trouble at mill and I didn’t fill up my boots latterly on the horse. However, I rated him his as between a definite to saver must bet. His previous Welsh nat 2nd and early season form had him right up there for me. Subsequently his poor form then relegated him for me to same status as Cornish Sett: Demands respect but not my first tier of choices. I didn’t top up late huge odds, not because the odds put me off but I was afraid that the inexplicable huge drift on betfair signalled trouble or possible NR. At the same time I resisted taking a top quarter or so off my bet on him to lay, as I deemed the poor return for the lay not nearly enough for still a possible winner.
So for me it was a case of a decent/saver bet coming to my rescue – as like most of you my top tier selections had gone t*** up (I bet this year on win only).
I am SO sorry for those who suffered a big financial loss.
For this year we MUST learn from how, collectively, we did not have a Welsh National runner-up displaying great early season form in AT LEAST a saver/can’t-be-discounted reserve bet list.
But PLEASE let’s learn. We MUST!! Please no “well that’s why that happened this year, a one-off!, now back to normal analysing as usual” etc etc – NO!
For me if we can – and I KNOW we can, let’s work on together creating, as I say, A KEY STATS consensus, which does not take into our own particulart thoughts on breeding, odds, blinkers etc.
I TRULY TRULY believe we will learn and be even bigger winners if like all GREAT animals in the evolution chain – WE CHANGE, ADAPT and therefore become STRONGER and WISER.
#2151
April 5th, 2009 12:12
Thanks…
Now some of you will know my Dad was a big fan of this site and got all the info filtered through myself. The beloved man passed away before Christmas and I would really like to thank you all for the wonderful friendship, laughs and gripping reading on this site this year, that keep me going through some difficult times.
I hate to mention any names, so if you’re not below – you KNOW you are just as important to me.
Wacky for your wonderful humour and great distinctive views (and cheek!).
Crisps great stats and what a laugh.
KJ you are a one-off but what can I say ha ha…
Silver Birch, Daniel, Pablo great stats guys.
Brian you are so funny.
Brody our ‘lil devil’s advocate (we need one).
Rascal for being rascalish.
Maureen a fresh off the cuff breath of fresh air.
Speedyseagull really unusual and great research.
Systemsman wonderful reasearch and although you may rub me up the wrong way sometimes lol, never doubt that your work andvery presence is highly valued.
Stayer an acquired taste but I’ll have a double!
Stephen – great guy – loved that Rudyard post!
Logh and Whitearab our ‘lil fighters lol.
To ALL OF YOU thanks so much.
Let’s make this a little community and now go forward with NEVER DONE BEFORE research on the Scottish and Irish Nats – let’s claw a little pennies and respect back, ye?
Scottish a week on Sat – Admin please post up a thread – let’s bounce back!
I also hope admin put up a ‘checking in/keeping in touch’ thread today/tomorrow to encourage us all to keep in touch.
Shall we have a little meet up day one time?
To all of you dreading losing this wonderful contact then let’s not – let’s keep checking in
Thanks to admin who make it all possible.
Best, Showlad
#2152
April 5th, 2009 12:57
Some pointers to the Irish National (haven’t checked them out – just found on another site)
- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
#2153
April 5th, 2009 13:59
I know we want the winner but is there any system for selecting a horse to be placed or am I just losing the point as I was after watching in horror as my picks were letting me down but must say it’s STILL GREATEST RACE IN THE WORLD and DO NOT let anybody convince you otherwise .Any stats for the Guineas and Derby(maybe Admin might start up a post for this.
I have become a stats and trends fan on discovering this site keep up the great work ALL contibuters.
#2154
April 5th, 2009 14:23
Thanks for the praise Systemsman. I have enjoyed all your posts and everyone else that has contributed.
When I say 3m+ in my trends I do infact mean 24f+, but that’s just me.
I did look at the shortlist of 5 that those trends left and rules out Mon Mome on the fact that he finished miles behind in 10th last year and was 7lb higher in the weights
Maybe next year I will try blindly following the stats on the day of the race and betting on all horses in the shortlist to add to any I have done Ante Post.
#2155
April 5th, 2009 14:32
thanks for the mention Showlad, ha, ha
glad that someone like you appreciates me, its great to have a few kind and reasonable people who break up the fights and are truly friendly
Wish I’d fully gone with my instincts- lucky double same letter theory! and not just backed BB and pondered MM early and II late, shoulda backed em all…only 3! but glad it was third time lucky for MM a nice genuine type, like yourself
It may make people uncomfortable but weird feelings, numbers and letters can help, and like someone said earlier about their wife often winning but not sharing her methods, bet its because shes a bit psyhic! together with LONG standing stats and not forgeting the ability to jump well, it works year on year, I should have a psychic page, no the pressure would be too much and I’d be shunned, if I’m not already. I’m intellegent too Brody! but with an extra dimension
Disclaimer: my powers are only strong on this race.
Muppet, picking places is the same as picking the winner, only one can win out of those that CAN win! less of a stayer may place but it is still unlikely as we saw yesterday, they fell away towards the last couple of fences. Horses out of Strong Gale are very good but not over 29f, SV and HTE both up there looking good until 2 out.
New thread has begun guys! if u got the stamina
#2156
April 5th, 2009 14:59
Have got my ratings sorted to exclude breeding & price.
Over the last 11 years the winner has been in the top 3 (haven’t studied before then)
Bobbyjo – 3rd (3 horses qualified)
Papillon – 1st (3 horses qualified)
Red Marauder – 1st (5 horses qualified)
Bindaree – Joint 3rd (4 horses qualified)
Monty’s Pass – Joint 1st (3 horses qualified)
Amberleigh House – Joint 3rd (5 horses qualified)
Hedgehunter – 2nd (3 horses qualified)
Numbersixvalverde – 1st (6 horses qualified)
Silver Birch – Joint 2nd (3 horses qualified)
Comply Or Die – 1st (3 horses qualified)
Mon Mome – Joint 2nd (3 horses qualified)
Criteria:
Weight
Age
Last time out
Runs
Days since last run
RPR season
RPR best
When RPR best
RPR best – OR for Grand National
Number of chase wins 3m+
Furthest win
Class
Key Race
Chase falls
Hurdle run
Cheltenham festival
I’m going to stick with system and ensure that I cover the top 3 (or any joint 3rd) before the off in 2010 – regardless of price, Strong Gale, recent form etc
Normally 3 horses – one year it was 6
#2157
April 5th, 2009 15:14
Pablo, using your system, how early can you rate the horse are there any that would qualify now, already got a shortlist of about 15 for next year
#2158
April 5th, 2009 15:46
All of the last 20 winners (Red Mauarder aside) had ALREADY by this stage placed in a C1 chase over 3miles or further. Should narrow things down a bit!
#2159
April 5th, 2009 15:50
Daniel Edwards says:
April 5, 2009 at 3:46 PM
All of the last 20 winners (Red Mauarder aside) had ALREADY by this stage placed in a C1 chase over 3miles or further. Should narrow things down a bit!
do you mean now or by end of season, as there are a couple of nationals coming up
#2160
April 5th, 2009 19:33
A bit premature perhaps, but are there any markets open for next years National yet?
Like many others I’ve really enjoyed this thread, as I did last year. I’d say that we kept it going all year, because I will miss the banter, but to be honest I think Systemsman, pablo, Stephen, crisp et al, must all be totally exhausted from all their hard work!
Systemsman – I hated reading ‘ sorry if I let anyone down’. I love reading your system. I will definately be back in December to read your thoughts. And until then, stay safe and happy racing to you all. Elle.
#2161
April 5th, 2009 19:33
God Bless you Showlad. Your Dad brought up a cracking son.
Like you, I have really loved this site and the friendships made through a common interest. Even though I could have had a week long bonfire with my Rambling Minster betting tickets, I don’t at all regret following the trends and backing him. State of Play each way was my only return and only to about half of what I put on in total.
Thanks to Pablo, yourself Showlad, Stephen, Systemsman, KJ and others for making this a great site.
And I know that I have to eat a huge slice of humble pie as regards a French Bred winning the race!! I could have seen it being MY WILL but not bl**dy MON MOME!!
All the best until next year. If anyone can tip me the Scottish National winner that would be appreciated.
All the best.
#2162
April 5th, 2009 19:34
PS I should have said that I had a tenner on Culcabock on the Tote at the racing and got £900 quid back! So, it wasn’t a total wipeout of a day!
#2163
April 5th, 2009 21:16
crisp
mon mome stats were
3 5 8 8 3 8 11 0.86 16 21 19
mon mome passed all previous tests but only one other horse in the last 20 yrs had a higher mark than 0.86.
This stopped me from backing the horse has there were better qualifiers that either fell or did not take to the race.
All in all it was a bad year for me has my will and comply or die have data missing to get a proper reading.
State of play was a big qualifier but was not backed either due to wait carried.
I think on good decent ground perhaps weight should not be an issue with the first 4 home carrying 11 stone plus .
#2164
April 6th, 2009 13:58
To all those who feel hurt by this years national take heart from a story from a friend of mine. He put £10 e/w on Cerium at 500/1, unfortunately for him his bet was with ladbrooks who only pay out on first 4 places, he said he could here staff laughing as he left the bookies on trying to claim winnings. He thought all bookies paid on first 5 places. When i asked what on earth made him bet on the highest price horse in the race he said he liked the way it stood after seeing it on tv.
#2165
April 21st, 2009 19:12
Not sure where to put this but I’ve been through the key races for past few years and come up with these for next year (RP Chase & Midlands top 3 included too):
Church Island
Flintoff
Hello Bud
Iris De Balme
Irish Raptor
King Johns Castle
Lacdoudal
Miko De Beauchene
Niche Market
Oodachee
Russian Trigger
Simon
Trabolgan
#2166
April 22nd, 2009 09:05
Add Dear Villez too
#2167
April 22nd, 2009 09:19
Church Island
Dear Villez
Flintoff
Hello Bud
Iris De Balme
Irish Raptor
King Johns Castle
Lacdoudal
Miko De Beauchene
Niche Market
Oodachee
Russian Trigger
Simon
Trabolgan
#2168
April 22nd, 2009 10:00
Didn’t realise this thread was still going, thanks Pablo.
Pablo, with regards next years race, I agree with what you posted on the other thread in that there’s little value getting bogged down with the stats now as the race is a year away and horses have time to get their ‘profile’ up to scratch – there are many races throughout the autumn/winter for horses to prove their National credentials.
However, based on what I have seen this season, these horses interest me for the race next year and I will be following their progress closely:
Hot Weld
Iris De Balme
Niche Market
Church Island
Arbor Supreme
Oodachee
Russian Trigger
Out The Black
Gone To Lunch
Flintoff
Seigemaster
Mods/Admin: I know we have a threads on Niche Market and Mon Mome but I think we should have a more general thread to discuss horses that we should keep an eye on for the 2010 National.
#2169
April 22nd, 2009 12:39
5 high % trends for April 30th 2009 for GN 2010;
1. 18/19 had ran in at least 7 chases-
Lord Gyllene odd one out.
2. 17/19 won at 24f or more.
Lord Gyllene,Red Marauder are odd ones out.
3. 17/19 had recorded a left handed RPR 141.
Lord Gyllene, Numbersixvalverde odd ones out.
4. 17/19 won 3 chases.
Lord Gyllene, Hedgehunter odd ones out.
5. 15/16 won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more.
Lord Gyllene is the odd won out.
#2170
April 22nd, 2009 13:03
6. 16/16 GN winners has a top3 in a C1 chase a year before their National win.
#2171
April 22nd, 2009 13:33
Crisp – good stats
What all your exceptions had was a strike rate of 70%+ by end of April season before – so exceptions must have good strike rate
17/19 strike rate of 50%+ by end April season before
Exceptions Papillon (Trainer does things his way – running over 2 miles etc) and Amberleigh House (confirmed Aintree specialist with only once race on his Trainer’s mind for years) – both 47%
19/19 strike rate 46%+
This indicates that every winner since Mr Frisk was highly successful at the beginning of its career
The strike rates might have fallen away in the season leading up to the race – perhaps because the Trainer was keeping a favourable handicap mark (exception Lord Gyllene who was clearly progressive in his winning season – started with OR 125 in winning season and ran off 149 in GN)
#2172
April 22nd, 2009 14:13
My assessment so far – irrespective of ground requirements, trainer’s comments, breeding etc
OR Age Horse : Comments
153 9 Miko De Beauchene : 4 chase falls
153 9 Gone To Lunch
152 10 King Johns Castle : No win 3m+; no Class 1 win
148 7 Dear Villez : Needs to maintain strike rate at 40%
146 8 Niche Market : Needs to improve strike rate
146 11 Parsons Legacy
145 9 Character Building : No Class 1 win
144 9 Iris De Balme : Needs to come back from absence with one good RPR performance
143 11 Trabolgan : Needs to come back from absence with one good RPR performance
143 10 Simon : 3 chase falls; needs a good RPR performance
141 11 Hello Bud : OR has gone up so needs a better RPR performance
141 10 Church Island
140 10 Lacdoudal
140 7 Russian Trigger
140 8 Flintoff : No Class 1 win
139 7 Arbor Supreme : No key race
138 10 Irish Raptor : No Class 1 win; poor strike rate; 5 chase falls
137 11 Out The Black : Needs better RPR best; no Class 1 win; 3 chase falls
137 8 Seigemaster : No key race
135 10 Hot Weld : Needs good RPR performance
All will still need 4 – 6 runs, decent RPR ideally 5lb ahead of OR on the day, run within 50 days, not pulled up in last race, no hard race at Cheltenham, hurdles run a bonus
#2173
April 22nd, 2009 14:18
Missed this one:
OR Age Horse : Comments
130 10 Oodachee : Needs better RPR
#2174
April 22nd, 2009 14:28
Pablo,
I would suggest that all those on 140 or below could do with notching up their OR’s by a few lbs to guarantee a run. Cut-off this year was 139 so those lower than 140 could miss out. Oodachee (130) really needs to win a big one to have any chance of getting in next year.
#2175
April 22nd, 2009 16:22
Fair point Stayer – nothing really stands out to me at the moment
Probably just as well!
#2176
April 22nd, 2009 17:02
got a very silmilar list, the 2 that stand out for me are Dear Villez and Flintoff, once again Character Building coming up. Next 2 for me to keep an eye on are rare bob and church island and i don’t think hello bud should be written off either. However i do think Denman will have a huge bearing on the race, if he shows the form he did last season then i can’t look past him regardless of the weight he carries, a horse of that class hasnt run in the GN for years. I think GN 2010 is going to be hard work on the antepost.
i’ll put up a full list up once a new thread is started
#2177
April 22nd, 2009 17:30
TC – I would love Denman to turn up because then I could back Madison Du Berlais who has thrashed Denman the last twice they’ve met
In my opinion (and I know many will not agree) it would take the mother-of-all-training-performances for Denman to beat MDB on a flat track ever again
MDB just doesn’t act at Cheltenham
Also very unlikely that Denman will ever scale the heights he did
He didn’t go on in the Gold Cup because they were worried about his health which set up the race for Kauto Star to finish so impressively off a moderate first lap pace
Then he went to Aintree and all the hype was that the horse was back to his best – turned out he couldn’t live with MDB
MDB has done nothing but improve all season on flat tracks – Hennessy, Kempton and Aintree
Would love to lump on for GN
But can’t see it happening – surely if the owners really care about the horse they will not stretch its stamina over a trip too far against a horse too good?
#2178
April 22nd, 2009 17:31
Denman’s owners not MDB’s!
#2179
April 22nd, 2009 17:50
Fair point there Pablo based on this season i would go along with MDB, but there is no way we saw Denman anywhere near his best this season. Obviously very early days still but i believe if he is targeted for the GN he will have a great chance
#2180
April 22nd, 2009 23:06
I think that Denman would have loved the National,had £50 on him before weights were annouced then the owners got cold feet,ouch!
Denman not the horse he was when winning the Gold cup or the Hennessy with top weight.
I thought that they were bending over backwards for Denman anyway.
Let me explain myself,I remember Jenny Pitman’s Burrough Hill Lad.A gold cup winner himself,although not as classy as Denman.BHL was given a weight of 12 stone 7,of course he never turned up;Denman they only give 11 stone 10 and he never turned up.
I notice at least one name missing from your list,so let me toss this in and see what you think of it.
Mon Mome won this year’s national and he was second in the 2006 welsh national so what about the winner of that national
HALCON GENELARDAIS.
Don’t forget he was also second to Iris De Balme in the 2008 scottish national.
#2181
April 22nd, 2009 23:13
Nothing to do with stats or anything just probably being silly but I love a grey horse to win,even better I want to have backed it.Over the years I backed quite a few;Suny Bay,Whats Up Boys.Missed King John Castle, but have a good feeling for Character building.
#2182
April 23rd, 2009 08:43
The problem with Halcon Genelardais, and to a lesser extent Dear Villez is that they both appear to love the mud. Backing them AP for the National could be very expensive. I can see Dear Villez coming out and winning something like the Becher Chase, which would raise his already lofty rating (150) even higher. I’m sure I read somewhere that Halcon Genelardais’ owners aren’t keen on the National hence he has not run it so far. They may change their mind as the horse is 9 now and hasn’t got his head in front since his Welsh National win.
#2183
April 23rd, 2009 11:32
I don’t think Alan King is too keen on the National either. He also seemed pretty sure that D’Argent wouldn’t like Aintree, and was proved right last year. I’ve got a bad feeling that Character Building is never going to make it to the race, but will still back him as soon as the weights come out next year. At least we know that he is an definite intended runner. When they asked NTD about Hello Bud for next years race he looked a bit flustered and mentioned Irish Raptor; wondered if connections of the horse were under the impression that next year the race was at his mercy.
#2184
April 23rd, 2009 11:48
So IF the connections change their minds and IF its muddy like in 2001 then HG would have a chance. TOO MANY IF’s for my liking.
#2185
April 23rd, 2009 12:42
I didn’t realise that NTD has only had Hello Bud this season and his form figures read 116P11 during which time his rating has gone up 30lb (the P was when the stable was under a cloud after which two great victories in the Spring on decent ground)
#2186
April 23rd, 2009 17:16
Amin can we have a new thred after Betfred 365 Gold Cup on Sauturdy (say for Monday) “Grand National 2010 early views” or something to take us up to Jan 1st 2010?
Can now post my OR V RPR list for 2009/2008/2007 for all the big races relevent for the GN but will wait for new thred or post Monday. I will them and add my own “shot in the dark” short list for GN 2010 but my own real first short list will be out about Dec 17th.
I promised I would reveal my “GN loses catch up bet” so forgive this little diversion. Its Norway to win the Eurovison Song Contest this year at 6/4 (sorry it not a huge price but it will win with Turkey [best e/w bet by far at 9/1-10/1]and possibly Greece also doing well) – a win is a win afterall. The lowest price ESC Fav for many a year and deseradly so. Get on its free money! The new 50/50 (50% expert panel and 50% voting) voting system can only help Norway who wre 5th last year.
I have used the ESC for a few years now as an extra or recovery bet after the GN (used to use the Greyhound Derby but its started to get hard about six years ago). Like the GN its one of the best bets in the whole year if you use the information available out there. Won 4 from last 6 years.
You can see my view on the ESC etc on OLBG at:
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic20_24565.html
#2187
April 23rd, 2009 18:48
Systemsman – the Guardian tipped up the Heavy Metal Finns back in 2006 – the only time I’ve watched the show in many a year – fascinating watching the price tumble from 16/1 – unfortunately I didn’t have that much on! Couldn’t watch the show without having a bet now – perhaps I will go for the Punk Finns this time round if I don’t get the winner of the Betfred – saver on Norway of course
#2188
April 23rd, 2009 19:42
Personally I always regarded Mr Pointment as a Grand National type.
Seeing him jump when he was in it,(the year he won the Bechers),I could see he was enjoying himself.He jumped better than Red Rum in my opinion and Red Rum liked Aintree himself.
However his stamina give out and that was that.I still thought maybe if the ground was riding fast like in MR FRISK’s year that would help him.
Maybe with age he’ll get the stamina,because rummy needed extreme distances in the end.If he does get the stamina then put him on your short list,because he run the competition silly.
#2189
April 24th, 2009 10:13
Big Fella Thanks is probably worth adding to the list – only 7 and a Novice this year and if decent horses run might have a nice weight next year
#2190
April 24th, 2009 13:29
Pablo, great strike rate stat one year before GN win. For me that’s
that’s already a big negative for;
Dear Villez
State Of Play
Black Apalachi
Hot Weld
Royal County Star
Himalayan Trail
Irish Raptor
Niche Market
Interesting look at Butlers Cabin, yes he’s still 100% on stats!!, 147 RPR for GN run, equalling his all time best(when he won Irish Nat). As he only finished 7th, 24 lengths, is this proof that he can’t win the GN or proof that the handicapper scuppered his chances and with 7-8lbs less next year, providing of course he shows some something on the track, he would have a chance? Questions for next Spring perhaps.
#2191
April 24th, 2009 17:16
Have to agree with Neil that Mr Pointment looks a good prospect for next year, clearly carried too much in 2007 but his OR has gone down and fits all the stats, good work by Mr. Nicholls who entered him in a 2m 4f last time out to get him down to a good mark. Obviously there are question marks over his stamina but Old Vic has sired a lot of winners over the years.
#2192
April 24th, 2009 18:21
Tc Connections don’t think he says and they have the say on him.
However if they change their minds then watch out.
I also like the way he ran against Black Apalache,on ground he clearly hated.The form book might say he was beaten by 74 lengths but that’s not the whole story,because he was right there jumping the last.
Conclusion Keep on the right side of Mr Pointment when he goes over the national fences and the going is not a bog.
#2193
April 24th, 2009 18:22
SOrry that should read Connections don’t think he stays.
#2194
April 24th, 2009 18:37
Neil i think he will be targeted for the GN next year. Paul Nicholls has been racing him over inadequate distances this season to get his OR down. He was travelling well in 2008 till the weight had it’s say. Who wrote that the horse won’t stay. i think he could have been in better races towards the end of this season. To me it seems like the plan was to get the OR down for next years GN
#2195
April 24th, 2009 19:12
Hope so.In the category Grand National histoy sub category Red Rum is he over rated.I mention about Red Rum’s defeat to L’Escargot having a video on rummy(yes a video not a dvd it’s that old.)Ginger said that rummy hated the ground that year.Now any horse who can put up a good performance on ground they don’t like clearly demands respect(even if you pass them over.)
I feel the same about Mr Pointment.
#2196
April 25th, 2009 11:27
Mr Pointment also has Ardross as dam sire – a positive staying influence as well as Old Vic as sire
Winning the National from the front is very difficult – has been done before but doesn’t happen that often – particularly humping a big weight around
Next year there will probably be Irish Raptor, Black Apalachi and Mr Pointment all vying for the lead – and all who love the track and the fences
But agree until Mr Pointment proves he doesn’t stay the distance he is one to keep on the right side of – now 12lb lower than when falling behind Comply Or Die – although handicapper might adjust that upwards when he applies the Aintree factor
#2197
April 25th, 2009 11:27
Pulling up rather than falling behind COD I meant
#2198
April 26th, 2009 07:34
Systemsman please could i ask when do you apply your stats for the derby,on the day or ante-post like Grand National,and would you be willing to share your thoughts. many thanks in advance.
#2199
April 26th, 2009 10:21
Thinking about Mr Pointment maybe a jockey like Ruby or Sam would get the best out of him. Thinking about Hedgehunter first time he tried to make all and fell at the last, he was a spent force. Next year they restrained him a bit. Result a win. Mr Pointment might need similar tactics.
#2200
April 26th, 2009 20:44
My list in alphabetical order of ones to watch for GN 2010:
Arbor Supreme
Big Fella Thanks
Butlers Cabin
Church Island
Finger Onthe Pulse
Gone To Lunch
Iris De Balme
Miko De Beauchene
Mr Pointment
One Cool Cookie
Oodachee
Parsons Legacy
Parsons Pistol
Russian Trigger
Seigemaster
Trabolgan
#2201
April 27th, 2009 10:50
GN 2010. Chase place strike rate seems the most important stat 1 year before; 47% or more.
(Pablo, I made Papillon 53% 1 year before? Great list by the way.)
Winner profile(hennessey,Nationals, races over GN fences etc)followers 23/30,about 72%,had achieved this 1 year before their win so Hennessey/Welsh National 2009 could still produce the winner.
I make Lacdoudal/Gone To Lunch very good on the stats though both connections have said that Sandown/Ayr are targets next Spring, though I will watch with interest. Also like Flintoff but a few negatives for him already.
‘Best’ 2010 possibles at moment;
Arbor Supreme
Butlers Cabin
Casey Jones
Character Building
Church Island
Hello Bud
Iris De Balme
Mr Pointment
One Cool Cookie
Parsons Legacy
Russian Trigger
Seigemaster
Trabolgan
#2202
April 27th, 2009 13:48
Crisp – you’re right I missed one of Papillon’s wins (53%)
Also added Casey Jones to my list – good horse & trainer – maybe Carberry on board if they run next year
Hennessy and Welsh National will be big races next season – also will be watching all 3m + Cheltenham handicaps before Christmas and other other famous staying chases
Reckon we should have a decent list available day after Welsh GN – including the winner!
I’ll be looking at any runs after the weights out in February only from the point of view of confirming a horse’s wellbeing (like COD and Hedgehunter getting good RPRs for the season) not winning first Class 1 race or putting up best ever RPR first time
Need to tick virtually all boxes before the turn of the year I think
#2203
April 27th, 2009 14:40
Yes, as Systemsman says we should have our winner by Christmas. In recent times I think only Hedgehunter ‘fitted’ the main trends quite late. He only had 2 chase wins- need 3- and he won a chase in his last prep run in February I think it was.
#2204
April 27th, 2009 14:41
That should be Hedgehunter and the ‘unusual profile’, Lord Gyllene.
#2205
April 27th, 2009 18:19
Anyone fancying a punt in the punchestown gold cup, looks an absolute cracker. Think i may do as i can watch when i come back from work. Think there are question marks over whether some of the horses will get the trip. Think gungadu is in with a great chance at a big price, one horse that will definitely get trip and has decent form against roll along who he gave a lot of weight to earlier in the season, altough it is very hard to oppose Cooldine as i think this horse has a great chance in next years cheltenham gold cup. Won’t have a bet on till weds, a lot depends on the going and obviously Ruby’s choice
#2206
April 27th, 2009 19:20
Whom do you fancy TC
Barber shop and Roll along meet again(providing Roll along turns up)and Albertas Run from the Gold cup.Roll along miss the bet365 for this so that could be significant providing the goings right for him.Myself I’ve not thought much about it,but I backed Barber Shop in the Gold Cup so I might do that if having bet.
The real fancy for me is the aptly name Punchestown running at Punchestown but now at Evens so value might have gone,but I saw him run and was impressed.Didn’t think Big Bucks would win as Punchestown trainer said the was still some improvement in him.
#2207
April 27th, 2009 19:48
Not going to put huge stakes on it, but i think gungadu has a great chance, i think his last 4 runs runs can be excused due to the weight carried against some top horses who have gone on to achieve very good results this year, the race prior to that he conceded best part of a stone to roll along and came 3rd at Ascot. Plus all of gungadu’s best form seems to be right handed. I’m not convinced the likes of Imperial commander and Schindlers hunt will stay the trip.
The going will be a huge factor though, i think if the going is gd-soft or better then fully expect a good run from the war and, really is a tricky one won’t be putting much on it, looks like cooldine is running tomorrow, would have been great to have seen him in this race.
#2208
April 27th, 2009 21:11
Hi, I am new to this site,I found you after GN. I have used stats for major races for last 7 years, however I didn’t get Mon Mome. Was on Hello Bud though, so that helped abit.
Could I ask you how/where you get the names of the horses that you have listed as maybe runners in the GN? This is puzzling me.
Thanks.
#2209
April 29th, 2009 17:28
I believe our old friend NP won. Thought he might when I saw what’s the going was like. I didn’t back anything in the end, but hoped you were on Tc.
#2210
April 29th, 2009 17:37
nope wasnt on, fancied roll along in the end, good run from gungadu though i thought, he just found the ground a little too heavy in the end. More impressed with Schindlers Hunt to potentially go well in the Cheltenham Gold cup, dont think Imperial Commander will be running in it though after being pulled up – didnt think he’d stay.
Admin-lets get the early thoughts of GN 2010 up and running
For anyone who likes a punt on the Melbourne cup in November, i see Profound Beauty currently trading at 32-1 on betfair, Dermot Weld took the horse over last year admitting it was probably a year too early for the horse but it still ran great to come 5th. If the horse goes for it again the horse will have a great chance. Dermot Weld’s record in the race is brilliant. I will probably back it in the upcoming weeks – definitely one to keep an eye on though
#2211
April 29th, 2009 18:27
Don’t forget today going was soft to heavy. Cheltenham would be firmer, but it worth keeping an eye on schindler hunt. I don’t know if you keeping an eye on the other threads but the a few ideas forming on the Bet 365 thread about the national. Until admin puts us a new thread up for it.
#2212
August 3rd, 2009 18:50
Share the doubts that Hello Bud might not be good enough
However I am interested in how he fares next season because The Twister has only had him for 6 runs (4 wins), he’s improved him by 30lbs in that time and the horse has won on all types of going – and has only run in 17 chases aged 11
I believe that NTD has won the National twice with Earth Summit (won Welsh National) and Bindaree (3rd in Welsh National before GN win)
Should Hello Bud have a Welsh National entry it would be a very good sign – placed effort there and a decent RPR and he becomes very interesting as we know NTD can get them ready for the big day and the Welsh National is one of the better trials
From memory NTD was really beaming after Hello Bud won the Scottish National – he mentioned Irish Raptor (“eats those (Aintree) fences for breakfast”) & Tricky Trickster (now with Nicholls) but I had the feeling that Hello Bud was really his number one GN hope for next year
He might just be an older version of Lord Gyllene
#2213
August 3rd, 2009 18:52
Doh! Meant to put post above on “Hello Bud” page
#2214
September 8th, 2009 08:44
Kerry National at Listowel next Wednesday and those entered at the moment include possible National candidates:
Church Island
Casey Jones
Bothar Na
Himalayan Trail
Royal County Star
Also of interest is that Hoo La Baloo, Backstage and Star of Germany have all been entered. They all opposed in a decent race won by the latter at Newton Abbot a few weeks ago and Backstage and Hoo La Baloo then raced each other again at Ffos Las. At Newton Abbot the horses were running off marks as follows: Hoo La Baloo (143), Backstage (137), Star of Germany (129), but revised marks are as follows: Backstage (148), Hoo La Baloo (143) and Star of Germany (137). If they all turn up it should be an interesting contest as Backstage is the highest rated entry so would have top weight.
#2215
May 17th, 2010 16:58
Hi
I keenly read this blog but don’t quite yet have the indepth knowledge to be confident in trying to tip, ( with Showlad’s record, its a tough one to try and compete! ) but after a sucesfull bet on the cricket world cup, would anyone be interested in a Football world cup thread?
As I would love England to win but realize you don’t bet with your heart and England are always poor value.
Won’t go into too much depth unless interest ?but fancying Holand at 12/1 and Van Persie at 26/1 to be top scorer