Grand National 2009 – Best Bets
Posted on March 15th, 2009 in Grand National 2009
Aintree is less than three weeks away and with the Cheltenham form now done and dusted most of the Grand National cards have been played and its time to start making your final selections.
Were you impressed with My Will in the Gold Cup?
Did Butlers Cabin take your eye in the Kim Muir?
Did Character Building do enough to silence his doubters (like me!)
Is Comply Or Die coming back to form?
Or is Rambling Minster’s pre Cheltenham form still the strongest?
Please start bringing all your final thoughts and tips together on this page in the run up to the big race on Saturday 4th April.
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This post has 2214 comments
#1
March 15th, 2009 15:39
My Will. Good if you have backed him at long odds as I think he has a great chance of a place especially off 10-10. Has run well in the long distance chases he’s contested, 2×3rds at 30f and a win at 28f. Could he win? Well no top4 chase finish this season which is a strong stat, though Hennessey 5th a big positive, and the last three GN winners with less than four prep runs, Aldaniti, Last Suspect and Minnehoma and had all won a race that season.
#2
March 15th, 2009 16:10
nothing i saw at cheltenham has made me change my mind or views.the horses that are stand out for me and have been for a while are in order : 1) RAMBLING MINSTER
2) STATE OF PLAY
3) GARDE CHAMPETRE
4) CORNISH SETT
still got interest and watching for DARKNESS and KILLBEGGAN BLADE for place monies.
#3
March 15th, 2009 16:57
Ones that qualify as bets for me based on my ratings are:
BLACK APALACHI
Will back nearer the time if weights don’t go up too much and especially if there’s some give in the ground – with all the hysteria around other horses I can see this one drifting in price nearer the time
RAMBLING MINSTER
Nothing more to say and have lots on plus doubles and trebles accumulating up – fingers crossed
NOTRE PERE
Possibly has too much weight already (I allow up to 11′5 if all other factors are strong) and bypassed Cheltenham – so no bet unless market speaks strongly (which I doubt)
SOUTHERN VIC
Unlike many I have found encouragement from his last four runs and am over the Strong Gale phobia on the dam side (GVA Ireland won the Midlands National) – have had a little on and will top up if there’s rain around
WAR OF ATTRITION
Wouldn’t qualify ordinarily because of the run within 50 days indicator – exception made however because this horse won the Gold cup after a 79 day lay-off and has performed very well on slower ground than ideal this season – on watered good ground he could go very well if weights don’t rise (different class to My Will) – have a little on and will go in guns blazing if Exotic Dancer turns up
STATE OF PLAY
Again hasn’t had a recent run but won Hennessy after 6-month break and has won at Aintree before after 3 months off – already had some good bets on this at some nice prices
Additional saver:
SNOWY MORNING
Will put more on if Exotic turns up and if good ground – his run behind Neptune Collonges on fast ground last April better than anything My Will has ever produced in my opinion (Neptune Collonges is better away from Cheltenham on quicker ground)
Ones that just miss out:
MY WILL
GARDE CHAMPETRE
KILBEGGAN BLADE
#4
March 15th, 2009 17:53
1. rambling minster
2. butlers cabin
3.state of play
alot of people like character building but only 23 days between last run and gn same with butlers now?? a question mark. and he’s grey and the last grey i backed in the national fell over and died sadly so not done it since.
#5
March 15th, 2009 18:33
and the kids have a pinstickers tenner on snowy morning and black apalachi …. which i have said they can blow in toysrus if they win ….. so first weekend in april may well go horribly wrong !!!
#6
March 15th, 2009 18:39
News…
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP third Exotic Dancer is heading to Aintree where the chance of recording a second win in the totesport Bowl could prove a more attractive option than the John Smith’s Grand National.
Owner Sir Robert Ogden’s racing manager Barry Simpson said: “Why take on horses where everyone theoretically has got a chance, against putting him in a race where very few have got a chance? It’s a big prize but we haven’t made any firm decisions.
“He seems to have come out of his race reasonably well. He ran near to his form, might not have been his best form, but we’ve no excuse to offer. A P [McCoy] did put it to me that he felt he was a Ryanair horse rather than a Gold Cup horse.”
Please see sense and go for the Bowl, take your prize money home and leave the National to the ones that actually have a chance.
#7
March 15th, 2009 18:45
What a great week of racing we just had. All eyes forward to Aintree now. If it’s half as good as Cheltenham it will be fantastic.
Nothing much that I saw last week changed my opinions regarding the National. Rambo is still my idea of the winner and serious consideration should be given to State of Play and Butler’s Cabin. My Will did run a very good race at Cheltenham but my worry is Paul Nicholl’s dire record in the race. Southern Vic was a horse that I was keen on and though he ran well yesterday and jumped much better than the last time, he looked to have a hard race and the National is less than 3 weeks away.
#8
March 15th, 2009 19:10
Working on my final list – there will be no big surprises. Will post up results fo all to see but need another 48 hours to do some serious work (it make or brake time now for serious trends study). Looks like I will be sending some time in the library tomorrow for me and you all.
You can only back so many runners and my list is already long enougth. Two I cannot make my mind up on are Cornish Sett (ran last year but good trends)and L’Ami (the same. Wasted money on hm last year)are they saver material or the real deal (both a bit big in the odds at hstage for my liking)? Your views on these two would be appreciated – tell me why they cant win as well as why they could.
Best weeks investing for two months (but not on the festival!!)and I still have all my bets running in the GN at good prices (however had to take 14/1 on CB as a saver!!).
I still think we can all get the family holiday in the sun so lets pull together – we have almost cracked it!
Come on Rambooooooo! Bring it on.
#9
March 15th, 2009 19:15
Agreed if weights don’t alter too much Black Apalachi is in the mix though no Becher winner has won GN in same season. Unsure about Southern Vic, haven’t backed it, though you could still argue it’s case that if it stays it is a C1 winner. Have looked again and again at Darkness and beginning to think this could be real e/w value at 40/1.
#10
March 15th, 2009 19:48
Crisp – take your point about Becher winners – although Clan Royal and Amberleigh House came first and second in the Becher and again in the GN in same year
Difficult to assess the form of the Becher in such atrocious conditions – heavy and strong wind and rain – but it did prove that Black Apalachi can jump the fences well with some give in the ground
As for Darkness – pros and cons – for me the cons outweigh the pros but I can see why some make a case for it
#11
March 15th, 2009 19:58
Reasons why I won’t be backing Darkness:
1. Never won a chase with more than 9 runners
2. Only won chases in Beginners, Novices or Veterans company – no all aged handicap wins
3. Record in 20+ fields reads P, P (in Scottish and Welsh Nationals)
4. No form in key races
#12
March 15th, 2009 19:58
…and 5. Best form for A P McCoy
#13
March 15th, 2009 20:10
Here are my thoughts at this stage based on the following trends…
* Age 8 to 12
* Won one or more 3m+ Chase
* Run in 10+ Chases
* Won Class 2 or better Chase
* Won Chase worth over £17,000
* Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight on the day
* Top 3 finish in Class 1 Chase over 3m+
* Top 3 finish in any of last 3 runs
* Last run no greater than 50 days
* No more than one none finish that season
* Topspeed of 128+
* RPR of 144+
* Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh/Irish/Scots National, Top 2 in race over National fences or 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+
Using the trends above I come up with…
Madison Du Berlais(11-8)
Notre Pere(11-4)
Chelsea Harbour(11-0)
Knowhere(10-13)
Black Apalachi(10-11)
My Will(10-10)
Mon Mome(10-6)
L’Ami(10-3)
Cornish Sett(10-2)
Rambling Minster(10-1)
Character Building(9-12)
Weight on the day will play a huge factor in any final list. But a 5lb or 8lb rise would probably rule out My Will upwards. This leaves me with five. Mon Mome, Cornish Sett and L’Ami have all tried and finished unplaced. Which leads me back to Rambo and Character!
My Will and Black Apalachi are dangers should the weights allow them to be.
So to sum up for this stage with 3 weeks to go…
RECOMMENDED WIN BETS
Rambling Minster (16/1)
Character Building (16/1)
RECOMMENDED EACH WAY BETS
State Of Play (25/1)
Garde Champetre (25/1)
Butler’s Cabin (When he was 20/1; not now)
#14
March 15th, 2009 21:19
Why no mention of Brooklyn Brownie guys? I think you’re overlooking this one!
Aside from the fact it hasn’t won a chase worth £17k+ does it fall down on any other trends?
Ran well over the National fences in the Grand Sefton so only doubt I can see is doubts over the trip. But until they run over 4.5 miles who knows what will stay!
#15
March 15th, 2009 21:25
Stephen very good and I dont dsagree.
For the record the following are in the Pre-Christmas GN winners profile list (based on OR 136 to 146 only (two points above the last ten years winners OR trend to play safe).
Every GN winner for the last ten years had this profile before Christmas in GN winning year.
The Pre- Christmas GN winners trends were:
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (11/11)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
12 runners passed all nine trends with TS 111 (to play safe, TS 128 best)min by Christmas.
In no order
1. Rambling Minster
2. Butlers Cabin
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Black Apalachi
5. Darkness
6. Garde Champetre
7. Parsons Legacy
8. King Harold
9. Kilbeggan Blade
10. Chelsea Harbour
11. Southern Vic O
12. L’Ami
So Stephen using your short list we have left:
Chelsea Harbour(11-0)
Black Apalachi(10-11)
L’Ami(10-3)
Rambling Minster(10-1)
In my book it leaves Rambo as the outstanding bet by far!!!
Note: CB did not qualify at Christams but has passed the trends test now and to play safe should be included (also in stephens list).
RECOMMENDED WIN BETS (look its the same as Stephen!!!)
Rambling Minster (16/1 – get on and on and on!!)
Character Building (16/1)(i dont fancy it but cannot leave it out – towards the bottom end of all trends required)
Others worth a full bet
State Of Play (25/1)(if 11.01 or under). So much class I could at sleep at night without something on this one.
Garde Champetre (25/1)(no 1/2/3 class1 but I do think it could be the one alongside Rambo)
Savers (1/3 – 1/2 – 3/4 normal bet)- but this savers list may get revised.
Black Apalachi (if 11.01 or under)
Kilbeggan Blade (no 1/2/3 Class1)
Himalayan Trail
Darkness
And this is without my final work over the next two days but the top 4 recommendation stands.
#16
March 15th, 2009 21:48
I should add by way of explanation that Cornish Sett meets the Pre-Chritmas trends but I excluded all GN runners that were placed last year from the list (when was the last time a GN placed horse won the following year?).
But its why C Sett and L’Ami worry me like hell – help please. Stephen excluded them both and I am inclined to do so but should we? (I think I will have some sort of saver on both, CS especiely with his 3rd in the Welsh Nat and Claas 1 win this year).
#17
March 15th, 2009 22:14
I Roll Along still an intended runner? Thought he ran a good race in the GC but, whereas My Will’s price has come in his hasn’t.
#18
March 15th, 2009 22:19
Loving the list Systemsman!
It is always a worry to exclude horses such as Cornish Sett and L’Ami when they meet a lot of the trends. I excluded them on the basis that if they weren’t good enough to be up there at the finish before then my thinking is why should they suddenly burst through to win now? They finished miles behind and unplaced, so they didn’t fall or unseat. It is something that rarely happens and I don’t see it happening this year.
But I will carry out the trends checklist again once we know the final field of 40 runners and a more accurate decision can be made.
#19
March 15th, 2009 22:43
Systemsman Says:
March 15th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
“I should add by way of explanation that Cornish Sett meets the Pre-Christmas trends but I excluded all GN runners that were placed last year from the list (when was the last time a GN placed horse won the following year?).”
That could prove a dangerous assumption, Systems. You may not get your fingers burnt this year, but I would be wary of having it as a general rule.
In the 1970s (using this principle) you would never have backed L’Escargot (1975) at 13/2 and Rag Trade (1976) at 14/1, not to mention Red Rum (1974 & 1977) at 11/1 and 9/1.
Just a few years later Hallo Dandy (1984) won at 13/1. That’s five horses to buck the trend over ten runnings!!
More recently, of course, you would have missed Amberleigh House (2004) at 16/1 and, had Hedgehunter not leglessly stumbled over the last in that race and staggered on to finish, you would have missed the following year’s 7/1 winner.
There is some foundation to the theory (especially over recent years) but I think it could be a weakness in an otherwise formidable approach, Systemsman.
#20
March 15th, 2009 23:17
Johnny Valentine you make a fair point and one I have wrestled with for the last three months (I did make a case for L’Ami last year and wasted money on him). Its why i will have a good saver on Cornish Sett whoes form looks very good this year (and recommended by many on this site – I would add however his price profile is a little high for this close to the GN but makes saver investment cheap though).
At some point you do have to make difficult decisions (and put your real money where you mouth is) like BC and SV cant win (my opinion) otherwise the number of runners you back gets too large.
However the recent trends say a placed horse does not win the next year. I would have only missed Amberleigh House (2004)in recent years according to your study Johnny – 1984 was your other nearest date. So in the last 24 years Johnny (unless I am wrong) I would have missed two winners – a price I would pay to have a shorter short list (you cant back all 40 runners can you?).
I have always accepted I cant win every year but I will have a bloody good try!!!!!
#21
March 15th, 2009 23:31
Interesting posts, thanks. I’m not the biggest punter in the world, but have the occasional couple of quid here and there. Would be interested in knowing your thoughts on the liklihood of Nine de Sivola making the cut. I don’t really know how to find this out.
Thanks in advance
#22
March 15th, 2009 23:47
Regarding Cornish Sett and L’Ami, I think it is safe to exclude them. Neither have showed enough in their previous Grand National running to convince me that they could turn it around. Mon Mome actually ran much better than them both in the National and would have probably finished 5th or 6th he hadn’t been hampered twice at key times. Having said this, I will not be backing Mon Mome either as is in poor form; would have liked to have seen a top 4 placing (despite top weight) in Midlands National but he failed to do this
Incidentally, when Simon had a shocker at Cheltenham he drifted initially to around 60s on Betfair. However he his now 230 and has been put bottom of the Betfair list. Have we heard that he isn’t running? Apologies if this has already been discussed!
Regarding Brooklyn Brownie, stamina is unproven at the marathon distances but I quite fancy him for a place.
#23
March 15th, 2009 23:59
There are possibly 20 horses in with a chance but I have narrowed it down to 2 strong bets (RM & SOP) and will have 2 to 4 savers (depending on ground etc), along with the results of some trading on Betfair over the past few months
I cannot back Cornish Sett because:
1) He was beaten 62L in last year’s race (“Cornish Sett ran really well until weakening over the last few fences” – a common remark for non-stayers) and is 4lb higher this year
2) This year’s race looks like being much better in terms of quality
L’Ami was beaten almost 100L when he completed in 10th and is now worse off for losing consistently to Garde Champetre than he was at Cheltenham
Returning winners Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House, Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter have all got closer than L’Ami off their revised winner’s marks
Big Fella Thanks worries me much more than these two and he’s a 7 years old novice
#24
March 16th, 2009 00:00
Pablo, Pablo, whats a foot, a U-turn on the strong gale horses. I wrote off Southern Vic and Darkness because of your many posts – that strong gale horses don’t win the GN. or even get placed – silly me. Mind you I have wondered would T. Walsh and C. Egerton take a horse with only 32f. of petrol in the tank to a 36f. race. God knows ?.
By the way, there are lots of stats and trends flying around but one of the basic stats is – A C1 or C2 chase win worth £17+.
#25
March 16th, 2009 00:17
miinnehoma – Strong Gale as a sire was rubbish in GN (but he’s not around anymore so no more Strong Gale-sired horses about) but GVA Ireland has Strong Gale as dam sire and won the Midlands National which gives some encouragement
I’m still not convinced that Southern Vic, Darkness etc will get 4m 4f because this marathon is unique (and noone really knows), and that is why the runners are strung out like the washing at the end of the National, but equally I’m not ruling anything out for one reason alone
My top horses are rated at the top because to me they have more positives than the others (every single one has negatives – weight or class or form or lack of a recent run or something else)
#26
March 16th, 2009 00:43
Anyone interested in Southern Vic or Darkness re: strong gale stamina influence, read on –
I have looked at all runners in the last 15 GN’s. For those that want a short answer – the jury is still out. The details –
17 strong gale horses have made 24 attempts in 13/15 GN’s. Thats only 1 or 2 per race. Now, unfortunately for our purposes 18 either F7,UR6,PU4 or BD1. The other 6 attempts finished 6th,7th,2×14tn,15tn and 16tn. Prices 7/1f – 150/1. Wts. 10.00-11.12, Age 8-12. Not much help then.
If we look at the life runs of the 17 that tried, none had won a 32f. or 33f. race but had won 28f. and 30f. Both Ad Hoc and Shotgun Willy were 2nd in a 33f. race – both at Ayr. Beaten 5L and 1/2L. wt.10-13 and 11-6.
P.S. none of the above 17 have the same exact parent mix as Southern Vic or Darkness.
#27
March 16th, 2009 01:44
I have had the winner for the last 6 years using the age, weight, runs over 3.5 miles and last run between 25-50 days and must be running into form on last run, add to this the prefered going for the horse and usually you are left with only two on the day. This years winner can only come from (in order of preferance) Rambling minster, Garde champetre, Darkness,Lami and kilbeggan blade also Black apalachi could run into a minor place.Rule out all the rest but bear in mind the final equation on the day relating to the going.Good luck and if you pick one of these e/w you are sure of a return.I will also be placing a tri cast combo using these selections.
#28
March 16th, 2009 01:51
I think if the Wts. go up 5Lbs. or more, then it now boils down to a 2 horse race.
Character Building
Rambling Minster
But if Southern Vic and Darknesst have the right parent mix and going on the day, then I would also give them a chance.
If the Wts. don’t go up, then I would advise you to sell the house, the neighbours house and back Snowy Morning – 3 bedrooms e.w.. The true winner last year, casey had him all over the shop, he must have covered 5 mls. to COD’s 4 and 1/2. Bless him.
#29
March 16th, 2009 02:04
Well Minnie if you are to select 2 dont look any further than Rambling and Garde both available at 20s or more so solid e/w for your house.
#30
March 16th, 2009 09:57
Gaz, where are you getting 20s Rambling Minster? I can’t find better than 16s. Only 17s on Betfair.
#31
March 16th, 2009 10:16
http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/owners-trainers-and-jockeys/
I posted this link on the Cheltenham Entries thread but it should be on here. If you follow the link there are further links to the Met Office for Aintree weather and the Turftrax going report for the course. The latter is not being updated as yet but will be closer to the meeting. Both links are very useful tools for making those final selections.
#32
March 16th, 2009 10:39
I notice Simon has been withdrawn from almost all bookies betting so I’m guessing he has pulled out or will be soon as has L’Antartique and Lothian Falcon. Hope no one got too stung on Simon.
Following are available to back on betfair at much higher odds than the bookies so should be considered possible non-runners:
Notre Pere, Star de Mohaison, Madison du burlais, Cant Buy Time, Imperial Commander, Afistfullofdollars, Opera Mundi.
#33
March 16th, 2009 11:16
gaz7753 Says:
March 16th, 2009 at 1:44 am
I have had the winner for the last 6 years using the age, weight, runs over 3.5 miles and last run between 25-50 days and must be running into form on last run, add to this the prefered going for the horse and usually you are left with only two on the day. This years winner can only come from (in order of preferance) Rambling minster, Garde champetre, Darkness,Lami and kilbeggan blade also Black apalachi could run into a minor place.Rule out all the rest but bear in mind the final equation on the day relating to the going.Good luck and if you pick one of these e/w you are sure of a return.I will also be placing a tri cast combo using these selections.
Gaz you have already put this on the cheltenham blog but it was a slightly different method you used and as someone else pointed out on there you would of only got 2 out of the last 6 winners.
#34
March 16th, 2009 11:19
Brody,
I agree that they look unlikely runners. I wonder what has happened to Simon then? Interestingly his run at Cheltenham was the first time that he’s ever been pulled-up in a race in around 30 starts so possibly something was amiss with him.
As well as your possible non-runners there are others I would consider unlikely runners and they include Ballyfitz, Gwanako, Monkerhostin and One Cool Cookie.
#35
March 16th, 2009 11:43
Please can someone tell me when the final Dec date is? Thanks
#36
March 16th, 2009 11:43
I think its safe to say that gwanako is a non runner. He pulled out at the first decalaration stage
Speaking of unlikely runners is Character building in danger of not making the final cut or do you think there will be enough withdrawals to get him in?
#37
March 16th, 2009 11:59
Brody, I think it is safe to assume that the horses you mention above will be withdrawn. With Exotic Dancer having the option of running in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree (a race he won last year),I am now confident he will not line-up for the National despite the initial remarks from his trainer following the Gold Cup.
With this in mind, Snoopy Loopy, Norzic or Cloudy Lane look set to go off as top-weight, and we are, therefore, looking at a minimum weight rise of 5lb, with the possibility of 7lb or 8lb.
As a 7lb increase would exclude State Of Play and My Will on most peoples calculations, has anybody any feedback on the possible participation of Snoopy Loopy, as his participation or possible withdrawal could have a considerable impact on the outcome.
#38
March 16th, 2009 12:04
“miinnehoma Says:
March 16th, 2009 at 1:51 am
I think if the Wts. go up 5Lbs. or more, then it now boils down to a 2 horse race.
Reply:
100% corrcet Miinnehoma but these are the stand out selctions weight rise OR NO weight rise.
If you want the best trends runners it just has to be
Rambling Minster
OR143
Weight 10.01
or
Character Building
OR 140
Weight 9.12
with RB looking the best by far.
Cornish Sett (OR 144, Weight 10.02) also qualifies if you ignore his place run in the GN last year and I am coming to the conclusion that if would be daft to ignore him alogether due to the GN place last yearwhen he qualifies on all other grounds.
These two have the classic OR 137 to 144. RPR 144min TS 128min, won Class 1 chase etc etc and have shown form this season. They also fit Stepehns GN winners Profile, Score 3stars in my “Black Book” ratings and RM also qulaifies in the my Pre-GN winners profile, CB did not but he has got the neccessary qualifications now (but the last ten winners had them at or around Chritmas!).
The only negatives are:
RM – 40% strike rate (42% min – but how good is this trend? – its not one I have used before. Its only means a drop by two points for the new trend if RM wins.
CB – won at Cheltenham. Only complies with trends late and at the lower end.
Of those with only a Grade 2 win but still within OR 137 to Or 144 the best are:
Garde Champetre
OR 142
Weight 10.00
Kilbeggan Blade
OR 141
Weight 9.13
Himalayan Trail
OR 140
Weight 9.12
As you know if the winner is above OR144 the profile I like the most is (if and a big if 11.01 or less:
State Of Play
OR150
Weight 10.08
So I am going to be brave and state again that the 2009 GN winner will have a OR of 137 to 144!! (brave or fooish?)
Come on Rambo!! (would make a good tea shirt)
#39
March 16th, 2009 12:12
Brian,
Sorry I meant Silverburn who has “Doubtful” by his name on the RP site.
CB needs 18 to come out I think and the unlikely runners ahead of him in the handicap seem to be: Simon, L’Antartique, Notre Pere, Star de Mohaison, Madison du Berlais, Cant Buy Time, Imperial Commander, Afistfullofdollars, Opera Mundi, Ballyfitz, Monkerhostin and One Cool Cookie. That’s 12 so he still needs a few more. There are usually a few that drop out late in the day so he has a good chance of getting in though you can’t be totaly confident.
#40
March 16th, 2009 12:13
And I forgot Exotic Dancer….
#41
March 16th, 2009 12:19
Just searched for info on Snoopy Loopy and cannot find any significant quote in respect. However, he currently quoted at 400/1 on betfair as agsinst 50/1 by Ladbrokes. This may indicate he is a likely non-runner also, which would give a likely weight rise of 7/8 lb.
On that basis, My Will and State Of Play would certainly have too much weight for my liking, as I consider the 11-01 stat to be the strongest stat available.
It is very much looking like RAMBLING MINSTER or CHARACTER BUILDING at this stage, with GARDE CHAMPETRE and DARKNESS also high oon my list of others to consider.
#42
March 16th, 2009 12:21
Systems
Is it possible to confirm the horses that were in your “pre Christmas trends” list
Thank you
#43
March 16th, 2009 12:22
Sorry systems, just seen this posted above!
#44
March 16th, 2009 12:33
Character Building best priced at 14/1 now; in from 16/1.
Hopefully he should sneak in at the bottom of the field. It’s promising that there are 13 runners that look very unlikely to run, meaning only a handful more would need to drop out for him to get in.
#45
March 16th, 2009 12:33
John Spearing has confirmed that SIMON will not run again this season after running disappointingly at Cheltenham.
#46
March 16th, 2009 12:39
Confirmation of above post by The Stayer:
SIMON has been scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National and Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup following a disappointing display at Cheltenham.
The 10-year-old, owned and bred by former trainer Mercy Rimell, will not run again this season after being pulled up before the third-last fence in the William Hill Trophy won by Wichita Lineman.
Trainer John Spearing said:”He’s all right but we decided he hasn’t had a very good year.
“We couldn’t get him quite as we wanted him so we are going to leave him off untilnext year.”
Simon, winner of the 2007 Racing Post Chase, has exited at Valentines on the second circuit in the last two runnings of the Grand National.
He had been a 25-1 chance to make it third time lucky at Aintree next month.
#47
March 16th, 2009 12:45
Can anybody confirm if a stat exists in respect of “price on the day”, as most winners are usually fancied horses, ie in top 8-10 in betting.
Do we have any information of the last ten winners place in the market?
#48
March 16th, 2009 13:08
2008 Comply or Die 7-1F
2007 Silver Birch 33/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 Hedgehunter 7/1 F
2004 Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 Bindaree 20/1
2001 Red Marauder 33/1
2000 Papillon 10/1
1999 Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 Earth Summit 7/1F
1997 Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 Rough Quest 7/1F
1995 Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 Void Race
1992 Party Politics 14/1
1991 Seagram 12/1
1990 Mr Frisk 16/1
Just plucked this from the Aintree website. Looking at that odds I would suggest most winners were in the top 8-10 in the betting with the exception of Silver Birch, Red Marauder and Royal Athlete.
#49
March 16th, 2009 13:24
Forgot to add Darkness also needs to be considered in the “other to consider” list along with GC etc
Darkness
OR 143
Weight 10.01
RPR 156
TS 150
Won Class 1 Nov Ch
Won Class 2 this year with 11.12
3yd in Sun allianc Chase 2006
Similar to COD in 2008 (coming back after a long brake)
Negative
Price a bit high at this stage.
PU in twice in last four runs in Scots (2006) and Welsh Nat (2008) – now that dont look good.
#50
March 16th, 2009 13:42
I reckon that the bottom entries will indeed come down to the 9-12 bunch. I understand that, if not all horses on same weight can make the cut, then the handicapper re-ranks the form since the weights were announced and decides on a new pecking order. I can see no reason why Brooklyn Brownie and Character Building wouldn’t remain the top 2 but, if it happens to come down to just one of them getting in, it will be fascinating to see which he ranks highest. I for one hope that it would be Brooklyn Brownie as have him e/w but I don’t currently have CB who I now rate a serious danger!
Are we going to be doing a new post-Cheltenham league table with 6 selections each? can’t remember who organised the last one?
#51
March 16th, 2009 13:50
From SLife:
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE is to be aimed at the Coral Scottish Grand National rather than the Aintree equivalent.
Last season’s Welsh National hero was taken out of the John Smith’s Grand National today on the eve of the latest forfeit stage.
He has, however, been put in the Ayr feature, entries for which close at noon tomorrow.
#52
March 16th, 2009 13:51
“GRASSISGREEN Says:
March 16th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Please can someone tell me when the final Dec date is? Thanks”
Grassisgreen – have a look at this earlier thread – all the relevant dates are on there
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2009/grand-national-entries-2009/
#53
March 16th, 2009 14:08
Regarding State of Play and the “it having to much weight to carry if/when the weights rise” debate.
I would still be happy if this horse has to carry 11:03, as someone has already pointed out (think it was Crisp who first mentioned it) all winners have carried upto 11lbs more than the bottom weight which would mean that the lowest entry at the current weights would be zabenz on 9-11 and i dont personnelly believe horses this far down will get in.
I think Character Building is going to either just scrape in or just miss out so State of Play’s weight is not an issue to me regardless of the weights rising.
#54
March 16th, 2009 14:13
Thanks admin
#55
March 16th, 2009 16:48
Brian, intersting point. If Cloudy Lane ends up being top weight, I can see bottom weight being 10_5 or even 10_6. I can’t imagine we’ve had such a compressed field before, just 18 or 19lb covering the whole field. Therefore, if a horse is carrying 11_2 for example, it won’t be giving more than 11lb to any other horse.
Assuming weights go up 8lb, I’d consider anything from S.O.P. downwards and would still be a little concerned about My Will.
#56
March 16th, 2009 17:00
I’m not sure that the extra weight over 11st is totally due to how much more weight they are carrying than horses further down the handicap; look at the stats for Cheltenham handicap winners where hardly any horse carrying over 11st has won a handicap chase.
#57
March 16th, 2009 17:11
If higher weighted horses aren’t beaten because of the weight they’re giving away then what is the cause?
#58
March 16th, 2009 17:23
Just seeing the updated posts – just recovering from a heavy week at Cheltenham!
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, who produced the best performance of his career when thwarting Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham last week, has been ruled out of the John Smith’s Grand National.
The Ryanair Chase winner, successful earlier in the season in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, will still head to Aintree but not for the Grand National, for which he was as short as 16-1 with Boylesports, Totesport and William Hill.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said: “Imperial Commander will not be going for the National. I have spoken with the owners and the group decision is that we will wait another year. He will run in either the Melling Chase or the Totesport Bowl at Aintree.”
All looking very good for Rambo but I agree it will close for CB. Simon is out of the race and it looks like Exotic Dancer won’t be running either. Roll Along is looking unlikely too (Racing Post story today) – COD looking a very likely runner for Pipe.
#59
March 16th, 2009 17:25
ADD NOTRE PERE to that list. He has been officially scrtached from the National.
#60
March 16th, 2009 17:26
They are dropping like flies now
“IMPERIAL COMMANDER, who produced the best performance of his career when thwarting Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham last week, has been ruled out of the John Smith’s Grand National.”
“NOTRE PERE, winner of the Welsh National, has been officially scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree next month.”
“MIKO DE BEAUCHENE is to be aimed at the Coral Scottish Grand National rather than the Aintree equivalent.”
“SIMON has been scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National and Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup following a disappointing display at Cheltenham.”
Plus Monkerhostin, L’Antartique and Silverburn all down as doubtful on the Racing Post entry list.
So that’s 7 now out that were above Character in the list. Hopefully all the top weights above Cloudy Lane will follow suit and it’s starting to take shape.
#61
March 16th, 2009 18:24
well all my betting for the race is all but done i think ?? or is it?
1. Rambling minster – family holiday to disney land if it wins
2. character building – family holiday to disney land if it wins (although ive backed it on you guys knowlege and it will probably trip over the starting tape as the last grey i backed ….. dark ivy !!!!)
3. state of play – a week in a caravan at hunstanton if it wins
4. butlers cabin – a week in a caravan at hunstanton if it wins (backed early in the year)
5. Garde champetre – weekend away with the mrs. maybe catch a show if it wins
6. Hot weld – fancied the name ….. thats what the nationals all about isnt it?
the horses i dont want to win ……..
snowy morning and black apalachi as i will have to take my kids to a toy shop on the sunday and watch them spend over 100 quid there !!!!
I do have 25 quid left in the war chest now …………… any ideas chaps?
#62
March 17th, 2009 10:03
good day for the hobbs yard yesterday …… anyone fancying a flutter on parsons legacy???
#63
March 17th, 2009 10:06
I’ve been contemplating a flutter on Parson’s legacy for some time now but think i will hold back and leave it til the day to decide now if i have a little bit or not on him (Dont want my fingers being burned like last year)
#64
March 17th, 2009 10:16
At last, we can reply again!
#65
March 17th, 2009 10:24
just found this on rp website…
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/nozic-aintree-grand-national-grand-national-weights-could-go-up-by-7lb/170709/top/
#66
March 17th, 2009 10:41
Yes I noticed this last night but couldn’t post anything on here. Looks likely that Nozic will be the top weight with the weights going up by 7lbs. If you’ve already backed a horse set to carry 10-10 or more that’s a bit of a blow.
#67
March 17th, 2009 11:01
Yes so did i but the story goes on to say that the connections of Madison Du Berlais share the same sentiment as the weights will only rise by 2lbs so he could be running after all.
Would still be happy if Nozic was top weight but would prefer Madison Du berlais to be it
#68
March 17th, 2009 11:10
Can’t see Madison running myself. Badly weighted with My Will on Gold Cup form and they tried last year with him and failed.
Nozic top weight for me.
#69
March 17th, 2009 11:16
After last years debacle couldn’t recommend anyone backing Parson’s before the day, don’t trust the yard.
Always thought Cloudy would end up being top weight looks to be coming closer and closer to reality every day. Don’t believe Pipe will run Maddy no matter what he tells the media, Nicholls might well run Nozic as he has history of running top weights with no chance. Not too unhappy happy with that though as only 1lb higher than I thought for mine and puts SoP on a very tough weight to win off imo.
#70
March 17th, 2009 11:18
More good news…
THE Sir Robert Ogden owned duo of Exotic Dancer and Star De Mohaison have been taken out of the John Smith’s Grand National at Tuesday’s latest forfeit stage.
#71
March 17th, 2009 11:27
If anyone fancies State Of Play he has been clipped in to 20s from 25s with several firms this morning and is around 24s on Betfair so the rest of the 25s might disappear soon. I’ve had a nibble myself.
#72
March 17th, 2009 11:37
What time are the withdrawals officially announced.
The reason im asking is because Betfair normally suspend the market on the day of the announcement but it is still trading at the moment which is strange if it is due shortly after 12 clock
#73
March 17th, 2009 11:37
Something interesting I have noticed is that Dougie Costello is the regular jock for Character Buidling and has ridden Brooklyn Brownie on its last two starts. Both are on 9-12 in the weights list but I assume that Character Building would be given preference above Brooklyn based on his win the the Kim Muir. If both horses got into the race then it would be interesting to see who he rides.
Also, Dougie Costello on Brooklyn Brownie finished second to Endless Power ridden by James Reveley in the Grand Sefton back in November. Could these two jocks fill the first two places again on April 4th
#74
March 17th, 2009 11:49
If anyone wants to try and recoup any money on Butler’s Cabin (thats if you believe he doesn’t have a chance anymore) then Skybet have put up a market for who will start the favourite.
BC and My Will are the current favourites to be favourite at 10/3.
#75
March 17th, 2009 11:58
That “Name the Favourite” market looks interesting. I wonder what price C.o.D. was this time last year? Rambo 16/1. Could we see a similar move on the trend horse?
#76
March 17th, 2009 12:01
hey we are back up! and with no photo icons, thought we were going to have to sign up t something and give a photo!! no offense everyone but I think mug shots of us all would scew things and we’d base peoples opinions in part on how they look! so don’t ever do it admin!
I was going to say last night it looked very much like ED would go for the bowl and others would drop out, so cool early feelings of 7/8lb rise look on! this for me rules out almost certainly SOP, My Will, COD, snowy, mon mome.
Rambo will get in, so will Him Trail I think… he still worries me slightly as a spring horse and sound jumper on low weight.
but what will be no.40?
is there a chance Brooklyn will get in?
#77
March 17th, 2009 12:13
If Nina Carberry is on Garde Champetre (99%) the weight of money
on her will force her to be favourite or very near IMVHO.
There will be so much hype about her being the 1st female winner.
#78
March 17th, 2009 12:16
Surely people back with their heads and see this as a negative? I can’t see Garde being tipped whereas I can see Big Mac screaming and waving his arms about, as he does, about the trends and getting over excited about Rambo.
#79
March 17th, 2009 12:17
They do not list GC so it comes under Any other horse which is 20/1.
#80
March 17th, 2009 12:18
Comply or Die i was thinking the very same and the 20-1 for any other horse is tempting.
But then i thought after Ruby’s winners at cheltenham then his horse will prob start as favourite especially if on either My will or BFT. Suppose if you think about that market too hard you could end up with viable reasons as to why a number of horses will start off fav so its maybe more of a minefield book to work out than the winner of the race itself.
#81
March 17th, 2009 12:20
Don’t think it’s any great surprise that Exotic has been taken out. That 7lb potential rise would certainly make it a lot easier to knock a good few out of the reckoning (for me anyway). I really wouldn’t back anything carrying over 11-1 regardless of what the bottom weight is. My theory is that 11 stone is just too much for any horse to be carrying comfortably over 4m4f. Something further down the handicap will always have a far better chance (IMHO).
I think I’ve done all my Ante Post betting now and any further bets will be very close to day of the race when we can assess the going etc.
RM is my biggest backed to return around £1200
I’ve also covered my RM stake to return at least double the RM bet on the following horses.
State of Play
Garde Champetre
Himalayan Trail
Kilbeggan Blade
I’m willing to risk not backing Character Building and Butlers Cabin based on their Cheltenham runs (didn’t see anything from BC and I’ll not back a Cheltenham winner in the National).
The countdown begins!
#82
March 17th, 2009 12:21
Notelppa,95% of people who back in the national are once a year punters and
are not like us who study the Trends,etc.
IF Nina is on GC on the day the bookies will not be wanting her to win thats for sure.
#83
March 17th, 2009 12:21
Did this last night my best guess at weights and top 40 on the day barring injuries, think Brooklyn Him and co are all shoe ins to make the cut if Nicholls is true to his word about running Nozic add 1lb to all weights:
1 Cloudy Lane 9 11-10
2 War Of Attrition (IRE) 10 11-9
3 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 9 11-8
4 Snowy Morning (IRE) 9 11-8
5 Knowhere (IRE) 11 11-7
6 Comply Or Die (IRE) 10 11-6
7 Black Apalachi (IRE) 10 11-5
8 Hear The Echo (IRE) 8 11-5
9 One Cool Cookie (IRE) 8 11-5
10 Preists Leap (IRE) 9 11-5
11 King Johns Castle (IRE) 10 11-4
12 My Will (FR) 9 11-4
13 Eurotrek (IRE) 13 11-3
14 State of Play 9 11-2
15 Big Fella Thanks 7 11-1
16 Mon Mome (FR) 9 11-0
17 Silver Birch (IRE) 12 11-0
18 Butler’s Cabin (FR) 9 10-13
19 Offshore Account (IRE) 9 10-13
20 Reveillez 10 10-12
21 Golden Flight (FR) 10 10-11
22 L’ami (FR) 10 10-11
23 Battlecry 8 10-10
24 Cornish Sett (IRE) 10 10-10
25 Darkness 10 10-9
26 Irish Invader (IRE) 8 10-9
27 Rambling Minster 11 10-9
28 Southern Vic (IRE) 10 10-9
29 Always Waining (IRE) 8 10-8
30 Garde Champetre (FR) 10 10-8
31 Hot Weld 10 10-7
32 Kilbeggan Blade 10 10-7
33 Brooklyn Brownie (IRE) 10 10-6
34 Character Building (IRE) 9 10-6
35 Conna Castle (IRE) 10 10-6
36 Himalayan Trail 10 10-6
37 Tumbling Dice (IRE) 10 10-6
38 Arteea (IRE) 10 10-5
39 Cerium (FR) 8 10-5
40 Idle Talk (IRE) 10 10-5
#84
March 17th, 2009 12:21
At last the system sorted out and back to the easy old format – thank you Admin.
Racing Post says 7lbs weight rise likely.
So dont back anything currently on 10.09 or more which would carry 11.02. State Of Play is just in there on 10.08 and would carry 11.01 (just possible) but we may still and probably will get a 8lb rise in Cloudy Lane is top as we have all suspected and it will be the axe for SOP and many others.
So as I stated yesterday the winner is more and more likley in the good old trends of OR 137 to 144 (with a possibility of up to OR 146)
So back:
OR 144 – 10.02(currently)down to
OR 137 – 9.09
Of those price under 40/1 with Betfair today (at 11/40am)the GN 2009 winner is in this list (lowest price first):
Character Building OR140 weight 9.12 (15/1 Betfair prices)
Rambling Minster OR 143 weight 10.01 (33/2)
Garde Champetre OR 142 weight 10.00 (24/1)
Southern Vic OR 143 weight 10.01 (26/1)
Kilbeggan Blade OR 141 weight 9.13 (39/1)
Others to consider but a bit high in price profile:
Irish Invader (not won over 3m and nine runs this season – a big no to both). OR 143 weight 10.01 (39/1)
Himalayan Or 140 weight 9.12 (45/1)
Darkness OR 143 weight 10.01 (45/1 – the best of the bigger price runners and a real, dangerous “dark horse”)
Parsons Legacy OR 146 (a bit high) weight 10.04 (47/1). May never run like last year, price still too high so wait and see on this one.
Cornish Sett OR 144 weight 10.02 (64/1). Placed last year but very good trends.
Hot Weld OR 141 weight 9.13 (64/1).PU twice this season and TS best of 114 – will he even run (no 1/2/3 this season)? Cant recommend at all.
L’Ami Or 145 weight 10.03 (84/1). Price too high. Has had two chances and failed. In form so small saver could be considered, place possibilities.
“Now I am 98% confident the winner lies in this list and probably the main list of five with Darkness being to one we cant asses very well but a danger” (you can quote this if you like after the race)
The above list is a price order list and does not reflect my own preferences which i will post later (for what is worth a make it nine possible winners at most).
What do you think? Its getting easier now to sort the wheat from the chaff dont you think?
#85
March 17th, 2009 12:26
Notelppa Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Surely people back with their heads and see this as a negative?
Not the once a year backers who will look for a horse with a certain jockey on or has a name that reminds them of something.
take forest gunner for example that went off at 8-1 with only hedgehunter just pipping it to favourite at 7-1. the reason was Carrie ford was riding it to try and create history just like nina will be trying this year. Garde might not get tipped by many but it will certainly be getting all the headlines in the run up to the race.
#86
March 17th, 2009 12:30
Don’t know if we’re re-doing this League table, but my current top 6 are:
1: Rambo
2: Character Building
3: State of Play
4: My Will
5: Himalayan Trail
6: Kilbeggan Blade
This is to win, but my other recomendation is back Comply or Die to place.
#87
March 17th, 2009 12:31
Hope you’re right Brian, because I’ll be opposing GC.
#88
March 17th, 2009 12:33
Brody Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Did this last night my best guess at weights and top 40 on the day barring injuries, think Brooklyn Him and co are all shoe ins to make the cut if Nicholls is true to his word about running Nozic add 1lb to all weights:
Surely if Nozic runs then you need to take away 1lb from the weights.
Also there is a few horses above Idle talk that i think will still run that you have not included in your list.
#89
March 17th, 2009 12:35
1 Rambo
2 Garde Champetre
3 Character Building
4 Southern Vic
Strggling from here
5 Kilbeggan Blade
6 Parsons Legacy (I know I am going against common sense
here but just have put it in).
#90
March 17th, 2009 12:36
Just a note.
Being made the Fav for the GN this year is the “kiss of death”. We had a JFAV win last year with COD and no consecutive Fav has won the GN for over 100 years so I’am very happy if My Will is Fav (whatever happens we dont want Rambo as Fav!!).
#91
March 17th, 2009 12:45
One thing that is puzzling me is people posting that Character can’t win because he won his race at Cheltenham, did these people actually watch the race? Now I can understand why lots of Cheltenham winners flop at Aintree and have used opposing them in all the support races as a very profitable betting route for a couple of seasons and will do again this year.
The reason most Chelts winners bounce on return is they are still suffering from their all out exertions of getting up the hill in tough top class races run at a flat out gallop. Character Building (and to a certain extent Garde) on the other hand cruised easily within himself off the pace for a circuit glided up the inside rail at the top of the hill moving into a prime position without effort whilst at the same time the leaders including Butler’s came off the bridle and under heavy pressure. He then sailed up the hill under no pressure and was eased out to win by a comfortable length by the jockey with a little hands and heels, didn’t get down in the saddle or raise his whip once. I can’t remember a staying chase won at Chelts with so much seemingly in hand and he did all that with 11′12 on his back. At Aintree he will be at the bottom of the handicap receiving lumps from all the main players and yet he has no chance, I must be barking and better give the game up then as he looks a monster chance to me… After Rambo of course!
#92
March 17th, 2009 12:57
Brian says:
March 17, 2009 at 12:33 PM
Surely if Nozic runs then you need to take away 1lb from the weights.
Also there is a few horses above Idle talk that i think will still run that you have not included in your list.
Of course you’re right, should have said take away not add!
Be interested to hear who you would have as runners who I’ve missed, don’t doubt I will have misjudged a few. Still this time tomorrow should have a clearer picture as the official withdrawls should be out.
#93
March 17th, 2009 12:59
systems you have a special black square on my screen and the rest of us have cluedo icons?!?
oh dear
Interesting list Notelppa, my Will and Him Trail creeping back in. Think your list/thinking like me,..just when I’d ruled those 2 out they made me think again. With a poss 8lb rise think My Will may stay off my top6.
Brodys list is for 8lb rise Cloudy top weight, like Brian said take away 1lb if Nozic runs.
#94
March 17th, 2009 13:00
Excellent post Systemsman. Hopefully the winner is in that list.
I’ve just had a quick look at Brooklyn Brownie and he does meet quite a few trends…
* Age 8 to 12 (Age 10)
* Won one or more 3m+ Chase (Yes)
* Run in 10+ Chases (Yes)
* Won Class 2 or better Chase (Yes)
* Won Chase worth over £17,000 (No, won £16,262)
* Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight on the day (Yes)
* Top 3 finish in Class 1 Chase over 3m+ (No, was 2m 7f)
* Top 3 finish in any of last 3 runs (Yes)
* Last run no greater than 50 days (Yes)
* No more than one none finish that season (Yes)
* Topspeed of 128+ (Yes)
* RPR of 144+ (No, 143)
* Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh/Irish/Scots National, Top 2 in race over National fences or 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+ (Yes, 2nd in Sefton)
Obviously I don’t see him winning the race, but the fact that he is a whisker away from matching all of the above means to me that Paddy Power offering 66/1 for 5 places about him could be a nice Each Way bet. Especially with his form over the fences.
I usually have a big priced Each Way bet on the day just for a laugh. He could be the one.
#95
March 17th, 2009 13:00
My top 3 ante post bets
1 Garde Champetre(Seychelles for the summer)
2 Rambling Minster(fortnight in Florida)
3 State of Play(week in Scarborough)
I’m also on Revillez and Battlecry for a few quid but i doubt they’ll take part or if they do won’t win.
Gonna have a saver on the day-probably Character Building !
#96
March 17th, 2009 13:04
With you Brody, can’t write off CB. He’s currently my number 2. The other factor to take in to account is the fact that his performance pays great respect to Rambo’s recent victories over CB.
There have been discussions re the relative strengths of these two horses and I’m happy that Rambo has the beating of CB. The fact that many will have CB in their to 3 or 4 is making me more and more confident about Rambo with CB requiring a definite saver.
#97
March 17th, 2009 13:08
Testing … testing …. Val, Noakesy … anybody there
#98
March 17th, 2009 13:14
systems are you our dark horse?!;)
I haven’t gone for CB because just don’t fancy him, that may change, I read race in two minds, firstly as Brody wrote and also as a lazy win, as in who he beat, his demeanernearing end as in not concentrating, but could have been enjoying himself which is good. But he has disappointed b4 that race, not sure he will perform and he is a grey!!! ha ha. Can’t back em all etc simple as that.
Gotta go now, wanna chat and sort through, but not back til tmw, so keep up good banter post cheltenham, see you soon
by the way, Showlad started the top6 thing and seems to be away, but no reason why if anyone is ready you can’t kick it off! same styley!
#99
March 17th, 2009 13:16
Cover bets on WOA and Snowy probably worthless now in light of expected 7lb weights rise, but I am happy with my three:
RAMBLING MINSTER
STATE OF PLAY
SOUTHERN VIC (RPR of 157 on Saturday – 2 lb below his Grade 1-winning best – he might not get his ground (but would well watered ground not suit? Remember the animal rights brigade are high profile at this time of year and so ground must be comfortable for the horses) – but hats off to his trainer for making this one one of the best handicapped runners I can remember – Ruby very pleased with him on Saturday – another Old Vic sharpened up in blinkers – Emma Jane is a good Irish handicapper and has some fair scalps this season – all systems go with this one – totally different class to Character Building IF it stays)
#100
March 17th, 2009 13:16
So many stats hold up surrounding the GN. I posted a long time back that, read it somewhere, one of the top 6 in the weights on weights day have lined up in the last 11 GN’s. Nozic was number six and is a definite runner according to Nicholls- so we knew on weights day that there was a very good chance that weights would rise 7lbs at the most. Also the average cut off point in recent times is somewhere around the eighty mark- no 73 last year- so again we knew on weights that there was a very good chance that a bet on something in the top 70 would get a run(provided they didn’t drop out!) Great stats for ante post betting!
Have looked at weights/age of last 18 GN’s 90-08(since fence modification) and the previous 18 GN’s 72-89. Will post shortly.
#101
March 17th, 2009 13:28
I see My Will is now 10/1 fave on Betfair,
I also see I backed him at 330/1 last summer,
I also see I laid off practically all of my winnings on him before weights day….
ARRRGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
#102
March 17th, 2009 13:29
OK, new league table. 6 points for 1st choice, down to 1 for 6th. Putting mine and Comply’s lists above, the standings look like this….
Rambo 12
Character Building 9
Garde Champetre 5
State of Play 4
My Will 3
Southern Vic 3
Kilbeggan Blade 3
Himalayan Trail 2
Parsons Legacy 1
This is to win, but my other recomendation is back Comply or Die to place.
#103
March 17th, 2009 13:32
Pablo, I can see your point re Southern Vic, but I think people are being a bit ungenerous towards Character Building.
2nd to Butlers over 33f at Cheltenham just a month before Butlers wins Irish National, beaten less than 3 lengths by the Rumbling Monster giving him 4lbs over 27f at Cheltenham and a 3rd in the Hennessey. The two times he’s failed at 28f or more seems to have been due to extremes in going- good to firm/heavy.
Southern Vic has raced twice at 25f or more and finished 4/5 and unseated.
#104
March 17th, 2009 13:54
Can someone tell me why Grand National betting is suspended on Betfair at the moment?
#105
March 17th, 2009 13:56
Forfeit Stage today. The market will be suspended until the announcement of which horses have been forfeited is made. This will probably take a while. Maybe not til tomorrow.
#106
March 17th, 2009 14:01
Nice to see the support for Character Crisp
His form looks great to me too. That 27f race at Cheltenham was run on Good to Soft ground which would suit them both and Rambling won fair and square by 2 and 3/4 lengths receiving 4lbs in weight from Character. In the National Character receives 3lbs in weight from Rambling. So that’s a 7lb swing for a 2 and 3/4 length defeat. Based on that I see them as very closely matched.
Can’t have Southern Vic as the winner myself as he doesn’t meet the key trend that Crisp started and I finished regarding Top 5 Hennessey etc.
#107
March 17th, 2009 14:01
Crisp
I can’t disagree with the facts that you put forward but I interpret them in a different way with regard to future performance.
There appears to be a concensus on here that a lowly-weighted horse (orginal weights) will likely win and BC, CB, RM, SV, GC, Darkness, CS, KB all crop up on someone’s list (several on most people’s lists).
At some point I have to judge which ones I think give me the best chance of winning me a really decent amount of money. Although I have had a couple of savers (still to win a respectable amount) on classy horses, I’m not so interested in making a small profit whatever wins as making a killing if one of my selections prevails.
The kudos of backing the National winner is not important either – it’s a high profit on the race over the long term so that 1 winner in 3 will leave me very happy, 2 delirious and 3 working part time.
Rambling Minster – most of us have made a good case for this one
State Of Play – Hennessy winner carrying less weight
Southern Vic – well-weighted Grade 1-winning chaser
Each one, in a different way, looks very attractive to me.
This is how I see Southern Vic’s two attempts that you refer to:
4/5 = level weights with Black Apalachi and getting into the race when jumping error cost him chance of being much closer – jumped much better in blinkers last time out
U = have you seen a softer unseating? Jockey error not horse’s fault
Character Building has strong credentials – I just feel that he lacks something compared with my three and therefore, to me, does not rate a decent bet
But that’s my opinion
#108
March 17th, 2009 14:15
Only race that has changed my opinions from pre-fest list is the Kim Muir, selections remain unchanged just the order
Rambo 6
Character Building 5
Garde Champetre 4
Southern Vic 3
Himalayan Trail 2
Butler’s Cabin 1
Running total
Rambo 18
Character Building 14
Garde Champetre 9
Southern Vic 6
State of Play 4
My Will 3
Himalayan Trail 4
Kilbeggan Blade 3
Parsons Legacy 1
Butler’s Cabin 1
#109
March 17th, 2009 14:16
Hi Notelppa and Comply.
As previously posted new GRAND NATIONAL TIPS LEAGUE is launched tomorrow AFTER next forfeit has ben announced.
Tonight I’ll be posting up my analysis of previous table and looking to new one
If your Top 6’s haven’t changed after forfeit stage – no worries just both of you post up same list again.
We’re starting it 2mo to give us all chance to reflect on latest withdrawals.
#110
March 17th, 2009 14:19
Having said all that – as advised by the legend that is Systemsman – I will be saving a bet for the day and CB might be that bet if nothing else dramatic occurs in the meantime
#111
March 17th, 2009 14:22
Just to say GN is defo Brooklyn’s aim – he’s only entered in Tpham (or wateva it is) in case he doesn’t make cut – from trainer.
Nice outsider
#112
March 17th, 2009 14:25
nice 1 showlad. Cheers.
#113
March 17th, 2009 14:27
Pablo, I must admit I’ve looked at Southern Vic a lot due to many glowing reports here, everything seems in place for a GN winner to emerge but he hasn’t quite performed or are the signs there, just me looking to hard. If Walsh rides it must be a huge plus.
So State Of Play to carry 11-1? Williams the horse is confident, can’t fail to place can it? Compensation for missed Grand Slam!
#114
March 17th, 2009 14:35
Garde Champetre seems to be the ‘marmite’ this year. Half for, half against- I’m against as it fails on top3 C1 chase, a 23/23 stat. I suppose to be fair hasn’t ran in any top races for ages! Perhaps that is a clue, surely Bolger would have chanced his arm somewhere just to gauge the horses true strength or is he just being canny.
#115
March 17th, 2009 14:41
Taking from the sportinglife website RE: State of Play
State Of Play is on course for the John Smith’s Grand National after pleasing connections in a piece of work on Tuesday.
This season’s Charlie Hall Chase winner seems to have benefited from a mid-winter break since finishing fourth in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
“State Of Play will go to the Grand National. He worked this morning on grass and worked very well,” said trainer Evan Williams.
“He’s fresh, he’s well and the National is where he’ll go.”
State Of Play, whose finest hour came when winning the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury in 2006, is a 20-1 chance with Sky Bet for the Aintree marathon on April 4.
#116
March 17th, 2009 14:45
crisp 73 Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:35 PM
Garde Champetre seems to be the ‘marmite’ this year. Half for, half against- I’m against as it fails on top3 C1 chase, a 23/23 stat. I suppose to be fair hasn’t ran in any top races for ages! Perhaps that is a clue, surely Bolger would have chanced his arm somewhere just to gauge the horses true strength or is he just being canny.
I hope it is him being canny. Garde Champetre cost over half a million so not running in Grade 1’s smells of a plot to me as surely you woul dbe running it in grade 1’s if you have forked out that much for it but maybe thats just me being overly hopeful as i’ve a nice decent wedge of my cash on this horse.
#117
March 17th, 2009 15:14
Crisp
“If Walsh rides it must be a huge plus.”
Would be ideal.
#118
March 17th, 2009 15:23
if im reading this right then Rambling minster just has to turn up to win-ive backed Garde as well but after cheltenham and watching last years race ive a sneaky that butlers might well hack up-Ruby won Cheltenham by a mile thats gotta have wound a.p up !!
#119
March 17th, 2009 15:26
But will Ruby be allowed to ride for his dad? As someone who has money down on SV I’d take it as a great omen to have the winning combination reunited but I can’t see it, I know Mullins gets first call in Ireland and Paul has him as retained rider in England, but not sure if he is allowed a free choice in a special one off race like the GN. If Nicholls had no real chances I’m sure he happily let Ruby ride for his Dad but with My Will at the head of the betting surely Nicholls will pull rank and demand him jocking up his best shot?
Have to admit my biggest concern re Character Building is the jockey just don’t rate Costello that highly and hope they can find a better rider who can get the best out of him as he is not the easiest ride. An over-aggressive jock like Thornton or McCoy would be the worst possible choice imo.
#120
March 17th, 2009 16:28
Tote have taken Garde Champetre out their betting for the National.Is this anything to worry about?
#121
March 17th, 2009 16:40
Further info on today’s forfeit stage from the Aintree site:
“The second scratchings deadline for the John Smith’s Grand National is at noon on Tuesday, March 17, details of which will be announced at Aintree’s Northern Media event the following day.”.
#122
March 17th, 2009 16:42
Texas Pete,
Not necessarily as they could just be re-pricing (Hills did the same with Rambo a couple of weeks back). However, what does look worring is that he’s been taken out of their betting with the likes of ED, SDM, Snoopy Loopy and a few others that look unlikely runners, so perhaps they know something. His price is holding up on Betfair though so I wouldn’t worry unless it drifts or other bookies take the horse out.
#123
March 17th, 2009 16:43
Stayer – Betfair’s suspended.
#124
March 17th, 2009 16:46
Yes you’re right Notelppa. I just flashed up Oddschecker and the last Betfair prices are still on there.
#125
March 17th, 2009 16:47
Thanks Stayer as Notelppa said Betfair is suspended which is the best guide on the horses intentions,its got me worried but hopefully your right and they are just re-pricing!
#126
March 17th, 2009 16:56
Don’t you just love Aintree? Midday’s the deadline and they don’t release the details until tomorrow. Hate to say it, but I’m hoping GC’s withdrawn. I can’t see it winning but given the good things said on this site, I’d kick myself if he won. Same thing goes for Southern Vic.
#127
March 17th, 2009 17:11
I phoned the tote and told them i was thinking about opening an account and asked about Garde the girl went away and then came back and said she’s got it down as a non-runner.I hope to god she’s wrong!
#128
March 17th, 2009 17:24
Well it looks like the Tote have got a scoop on the withdrawals for today
They confirmed to me also that the trainer had withdrawn the horse at todays forfeit stage.
#129
March 17th, 2009 17:25
Got a bad feeling about this as every other horse Totesport have removed I would guess is a def NR tomorrow including Madison. Bloody McManus more money than sense, horse would definitely be in the top 4.
#130
March 17th, 2009 17:28
An aperitif to Showlad’s Grand National League table.
A look at weights as we get our final selections together.
Comparing the 18 GN’s since the fences have been modified, 90-08, to the previous 18 GN’s and the 18 before that.
54-71; six winners carried 11st or more /11-5 in 1965 but bottom weight was 10-13.
72-89; six winners carried 11st or more /including super horse Rummy’s 74/77 wins.
90-08; one winner carried 11st, Hedgehunter 11st 1lb, or more to victory and bottom weight was 10st 5lbs.
54-71; 13 placed with 11st or more though two carried only 9lbs/6lbs more than bottom weight.
72-89; 17 placed with 11st or more.
90-08; 12 placed with 11st or more though last year Snowy Morning 11-0, and Slim Pickings 11-3 only carried 7lbs and 10lbs more than bottom weight.
#131
March 17th, 2009 17:35
The ‘pennies’ are really trickling in now for the Cornish Pastie!
#132
March 17th, 2009 17:42
I think it is safe to say that the Tote have got some inside information and the horses that they don’t offer prices on today will indeed form the list of withdrawals.
Garde Champetre
Exotic dancer
Madison du berlais
Star de mohaison
opera mundi
one cool cookie
snoopy loopy
monkerhostin
ballyfitz
l’antartique
silverburn
piraya
lothian falcon
hoopy
oulart
Simon
Notre pere
imperial commander
Miko de beauchene.
So i suspect that this will be the official withdrawals released at Noon tomorrow.
#133
March 17th, 2009 17:52
if this list is correct then rambo and southern vic scrape in and hot weld brings up the rear at number 40
leaving Kilbeggan blade, Character building and Brooklyn brownie at 41,42 and 43.
#134
March 17th, 2009 17:55
On no not that new blog system again (no way of going direct to a page of 50 posts without going through every page of 50 posts!!) – Admin bring back the old simple one we had this morning – please.
#135
March 17th, 2009 17:58
slight amendment not sure who will be in 40th position as both Kilbeggan blane and hot weld have both the same weight and same OR…not too sure what happens in the event of a double tie, maybe they have a dead heat
#136
March 17th, 2009 18:27
Well it looks certain that RAMBO will get in now so its all systems go for Aintree.I’ve been backing Rambo since the beginning of feb and can’t find any other horse to beat it.So looks like my eggs will be in one basket this year, so i hope to win enough money to buy a Harley Davidson to go with my Leather Jacket!!cheers ian beale
#137
March 17th, 2009 19:10
One Cool Cookie booked his ticket for the Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National with victory at Down Royal.
Charlie Swan’s runner was sent off a 5-2 shot under Davy Russell despite being saddled with top weight in the Guinness Chase.
He made light work of his burden though, racing prominently before taking over at the last and staying on to hold Selection Box by a length and a half with disappointing 4-5 favourite Arbor Supreme only third.
William Hill cut One Cool Cookie to 33-1 from 50s for the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree but Swan is planning a crack at the Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse on April 13 instead.
He said: “He is a 149-rated horse and it is grand to have won two races with him this year. He has that Grade One penalty that doesn’t make life easy for him.
“He’ll go now for the Irish Grand National. He is a grand horse and I wouldn’t mind having a few more like him.”
#138
March 17th, 2009 19:35
Just got this reply from tote
Hello Chris.
Thank you for your email.
I can confirm that Garde Champetre has become a non runner in the Grand National.
Kind Regards
Angela Brennan
Customer Care Advisor
#139
March 17th, 2009 19:38
Re Character Building getting in to the National, I don’t think the ORs for Cheltenham have been updated as CB is still quoted at 139. I would guess this will happen any day now as there’s a story on the RP site that Kauto is the highest rated horse in the country ahead of Master Minded. I’d guess when this is done, CB will be first in line of the 9-12 brigade thus needing 2 to withdraw.
Great news about GC. Just need CB to miss the cut now (though that’s unlikely). Rambo all the way….
#140
March 17th, 2009 20:09
Notelppa,
A bit mean-spirited celebrating the ‘great news’ the GC won’t be running, as posters on here have backed it. I didn’t fancy the horse myself but some people had invested their hard-earned and as a punter I don’t rejoice in the fact they won’t get a run for their money. It could happen to any one of us so lets hope Rambo makes the start.
#141
March 17th, 2009 20:09
That’s great news if those are indeed the withdrawals. Such a shame about Garde as he seemed to have a nice each way shout.
Just need two more no hopers to pull out now for Character to secure his place in the line up. Come on trainers, get the rags out of the field please.
#142
March 17th, 2009 20:15
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
#143
March 17th, 2009 20:28
Money lost on Garde but I always suspected he was not the NO 1 best bet wihout a place in a Class 1 chase. Lossing the bet is compensated by knowng there is less competition for Rambo.
#144
March 17th, 2009 20:54
That’s the gamble with ante posting betting ladies and gents. Only had a small amount on it (compared to Rambo), so no great loss. Hope no-ones been too badly hit.
#145
March 17th, 2009 21:08
Hi Speedyseagull it was me.
The final GRAND NATIONAL LEAGUE TABLE is getting posted up along with my analysis in a few minutes.
Then new table opens up tomorrow, after the next forfeit stage news has been released for us all to evaluate, and the table is put back to Zero and we start from scratch again.
#146
March 17th, 2009 21:12
I just read speedy’s post about next Top 6 table and posted up accordingly my reply. Then when I refreshed all these latest posts appeared…sorry guys…this thread’s playin up again
#147
March 17th, 2009 21:31
Come on then Showlad. Let’s see the analysis
#148
March 17th, 2009 21:58
FINAL STAGE 1 PLACINGS
GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPS LEAGUE:
Rambling Minster 172
State Of Play 103
Butler’s Cabin 53
Garde Champetre 53
Darkness 41
Black Apalachi 37
Cornish Sett 30
Southern Vic 21
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 17
L’Ami 15
Himalayan Trail 10
Comply or Die 9
Hear The Echo 7
Snowy Morning 7
War Of Attrition 5
My Will 5
Chelsea Harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Hot Weld 3
Preists Leap 2
Fundamentalist 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
Snowy Morning 1
ANALYSIS SUMMARY:
Well it’s Rambo all the way – according to our Expert Bloggers on this site!! RAMBLING MINISTER soars ahead of the competition, nearly 70 points ahead of his nearest rival. His worthy and proven stamina credentials, recent Class 1 win and the style in which he did it at Haydock, have him massively tipped to be Comply or Die’s successor on April 4th. On top of that is his allocation of a feather weight and you (nearly) all found awarding him the maximum 6 points irresistable.
STATE OF PLAY seems to have won over many by the sheer class of this horse, convincing many that his longer than preferred last run stat actually may be for the best for this class act. The emphatic gap he has made between him and the 3rd favoured horse is just as impressive as Rambo’s lead over him – these two are WAY AHEAD of the chasing pack. STATE OF PLAY has garnered nearly double the points of his nearest rivals.
Worries over Garde’s lack of Class 1 pedigree and Butler’s Cabin’s form famine haven’t done them too much damage – as we rated them equal third for the big one.
They are closely followed by the cracking form of DARKNESS. Just behind him is BLACK APALACHI who is still seen as a force by many -this faith would have been much re-inforced had it not been for his punishing weight.
Those that have faith that a resurgent CORNISH SETT can turn around last year’s 10th placing voice this well, as his turn comes next and he is placed a creditable 7th.
SOUTHERN VIC has appeared to be losing faith in many quarters and he does his best to stay in touch and appears next in the pecking order.
Kilbeggan Blade’s unkown quantities, the mysteriousness of Parson’s Legacy, French new found cross country star (and much lighter weighted) L’Ami and the hopelessly out of form Himalayan Trail get a few shouts in, before we drop to totals of only single figures.
Astonishinlgy in the ’single figures’ club are the well-in-on-the-weights-super-5th-Gold Cup-new-favourite My Will and the hugely returned to form Character Building. But me thinks that will all change in our new League Table and these two will be the highest climbers. But just how high will they climb?
Well Stage 1 Table showed the findings with us all looking through the glass pretty dimly..I wonder what our new Table will tell us from tomorrow when the picture is becoming ever so much clearer…
In the new table can we all make an effort to update any errors, tables not totalled up etc, ta much.
STAGE 2 OPENS TOMORROW (FOLLOWING NEXT FORFEIT STAGE INFO RELEASED)
FINAL AND LAST STAGE (3) WILL BE ON MARCH 31ST FOLLOWING THE 5/6 DAY CONFIRMATION ANNOUNCEMENTS ON MARCH 30.
Best, Showlad
#149
March 17th, 2009 21:59
Certainly not gloating about Garde Champetre, hope that bloggers can recoup. Going back some weeks though I’m sure the feeling here was that Cheltenham was his number one aim and it is very rare that a horse wins the National as an afterthought- I can remember Rough Quest being very doubtful but his Gold Cup 2nd persuaded connections to run it on 10-7 – and whoever has decided has decided in the best interests of Garde Champetre.
#150
March 17th, 2009 22:16
Yes, a shame about GC for those who backed him. I had him in the no chance whatsoever category but would sooner have seen him have a run and see if I was right – or others on here were. The same goes for L’Ami.
I also agree with others that CB is a saver bet only – I don’t see him as win material but have to have a bet on him now to cover some stake money. Indeed I am sure someone like McCoy said he was a GN winner in waiting a couple of years ago. in my own mind, his run and that of My Will at Cheltenham just helps set up a fairly soft couple of favourites for the day.
#151
March 17th, 2009 22:22
What do people make of Brooklyn Brownie? He only got 2pts in the last table but with the weights possibly going up 7lbs and the chance of him getting in looking quite good, I have taken more interest. I think he has a chance. He meets a lot of the major stats in terms of age, experience, winner over 3m and has also had a good spin over the fences when second to Endless Power in the Grand Sefton. That’s experience which many of the principals don’t have. He’s also got quite a good pedigree in that his dam’s sire Lafontaine sired Papillon and other decent stayers like Ever Blessed and Spot Thedifference. I think there are worse 66/1 shots.
#152
March 17th, 2009 22:37
I rate him rather highly Stayer.
Unknown at GN distance, but to me he has a last year’s KJC about him..
#153
March 18th, 2009 01:53
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@!
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more came back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Ells
1
#154
March 18th, 2009 01:56
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@! Backed at 42s which is frustrating aswell as I could have layed out. Unlucky for those who backed ‘any other’ on Sky Bet for favourite for the GN – Gutted for Nina. Had a real live chance ther imo.
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more came back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Ells
1
#155
March 18th, 2009 02:11
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many, many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Plus the likes of Cornish Sett?
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@! Backed at 42s which is frustrating aswell as I could have layed out. Unlucky for those who backed ‘any other’ on Sky Bet for favourite for the GN – Gutted for Nina. Had a real live chance ther imo.
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more coming back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Ells
1
#156
March 18th, 2009 02:14
For those still into BC. Comments from today/yesterday.
McCoy’s employer, JP McManus, also has Garde Champetre, but another cross-country success at the Festival reiterated how sweetly that horse goes for Nina Carberry. “I haven’t spoken to JP yet but King Johns Castle and Butler’s Cabin are the obvious ones,” McCoy confirmed. “Butler’s ran OK at Cheltenham, though I’m wondering whether he should have been winning that if he’s going to have a chance in the National. It wouldn’t put me off that he fell with me last year – he just knuckled over at Becher’s, and he’d jumped as well as anything up to then. I suppose Garde Champetre might come into the thinking, but we’ll see what the boss says.”
Couldn’t agree more McCoy, couldn’t agree more.
Ells
1
#157
March 18th, 2009 03:45
Stephen,
Mums the word but I make it a 10LB. swing between CB and RM. The wee jockey was -3Lb.
Crisp 73,
Maybe Bolger is being canny about L’Ami ?.
#158
March 18th, 2009 06:22
Miinnehoma,
The jocks allowance was already taken into account when it shows the weight carried on the Racing Post website.
On the day Character was rated 136 carrying 11-12 and Rambling was rated 135 carrying 11-8 (should be 11-11 withought jock). So therefore it is indeed a 7lbs swing.
New ratings are out and Character is best rated of the 9-12 bunch on 145. So finger crossed he makes it.
I notice the Racing Post making a big deal about My Will being 8lbs well in for the National. They didn’t mention that Rambling Minster is 6lbs well in and Character Building now 5lbs well in though.
#159
March 18th, 2009 08:20
Hi people,
First time I’ve posted on here but read a lot – lots of useful info. There are a couple of horses on befair that seem to have been reduced in odds and I haven’t seen any discussion about – notably:
Offshore account (50/1)
Irish Invader (40/1)
Roll Along (70/1)
I was wondering if anyone had anything on these horses; are they all entered, and have any of them got a chance? I like the look of offshore account even if hasnt raised much recently, Irish Invader doesn’t look like he will stay, and I’m thinking Roll Along is likely to be withdrawn given the odds, and the fact that only finished a neck behind My Will at the gold cup and My Will is 10/1 fav!
For what its worth my money is on Rambo, Butlers Cabin and State of Play at present (in that order)and have a couple of others that I am considering a smaller bet on.
#160
March 18th, 2009 10:14
For final anlaysis can anyone list up of the races run at Aintree throughout the year, which are run over the GN fences/course and which are not? Would be a great help for past form.
#161
March 18th, 2009 10:15
Thank God back to usual thread – Thanks Admin
#162
March 18th, 2009 10:27
No, now it’s reverted to new 50-a-page system again lol
#163
March 18th, 2009 10:36
Showlad – I can oblige. The races run over the national fences are:
Topham Chase (formerly John Hughes)
Fox Hunters Chase
Grand Sefton Handicap Chase
Becher Handicap Chase
#164
March 18th, 2009 11:46
For what is worth I am in the middle of my final “Black Book” asssessment (this is a basic trends profile that highlights the likely winners and found CoD last year)- I always use it as a final check to see if it confirms our other short lists/winners profiles.
You need 3 stars to be in the short lit of possible winners.
My Will cuurent weight 10.10. OR 152
11.03 if 7lb rise in weights 2 stars+
11.04 if 8lb rise in weights (most likely) 1 star+
So in my humble opinion My Will cnanot win the 2009 GN! He has also only had two prep races and not the 3 min that is in the usual GN winners profile (I dont regard this factor as an elimination issue just another negative) .
Full results coming soon (I cant wait myself even as this final check will resolve lots of issues outstanding)
#165
March 18th, 2009 12:01
Can I make a request?
After the great race, win or lose can we all post up what we have learnt from this year’s ante-post betting?
However obvious they may appear – a list of dos and don’ts will be invaluable in the build up to next year’s race.
Personally I have bet on far too many horses on Betfair and traded well on some but poorly on others (admittedly to smallish stakes) – sometimes I find it too easy to overreact to events on Betfair (going green on Garde Champetre and Character Building for example immediately after their wins), whereas my bets at the bookies are better considered because I am handing over real cash!
#166
March 18th, 2009 12:11
STAR chaser Madison Du Berlais is the latest high-profile Grand National entry to have been taken out of the Aintree showpiece, for which the weights have been raised 5lbs.
Betfair Chase winner Snoopy Loopy heads the 88 runners left in the Grand National on 11st 10lb with Nozic, one of five possible starters for Paul Nicholls, next best on 11st 8lb.
Following the raising of the weights, favourite My Will is pegged on 11st 1lb, Butler’s Cabin has 10st 10lb and last year’s hero Comply Or Die is on 11st 3lb.
Among the other 17 scratchings are Cheltenham winner Imperial Commander and Garde Champetre, Exotic Dancer and Notre Pere.
#167
March 18th, 2009 12:12
Trainer Peter Bowen said of Snoopy Loopy, who was pulled up in the Gold Cup: “He doesn’t run in the Grand National. If he did run again he would go in the Betfair Bowl at Aintree.”
“I don’t know what went wrong [in the Gold Cup], whether he got a knock or something. But he’s fine now. We’ve no real plans. The Grand National entry was precautionary.”
#168
March 18th, 2009 12:14
Make your mind up Bowen…
Trainer Peter Bowen said of Snoopy Loopy, who was pulled up in the Gold Cup: “He doesn’t run in the Grand National. If he did run again he would go in the Betfair Bowl at Aintree.”
“I don’t know what went wrong [in the Gold Cup], whether he got a knock or something. But he’s fine now. We’ve no real plans. The Grand National entry was precautionary.”
#169
March 18th, 2009 12:15
Which horses have now officially moved up into the top 40 does anyone know?
#170
March 18th, 2009 12:35
I make it Rambling is in at number 38.
41. Kilbeggan Blade
42. Hot Weld
43. Character Building
44. Brooklyn Brownie
#171
March 18th, 2009 12:46
41 always waining
42 Kilbeggan blade
43 hot weld
44 character building
45 brooklyn brownie
#172
March 18th, 2009 12:51
checked racing post website racing card for the national snoppy loopy top weight.
Whats does everyone think of irish invader
#173
March 18th, 2009 12:54
I think mine is correct puzzled. Always waining is in at number 40.
#174
March 18th, 2009 12:56
SYSTEMSMAN
please could i trouble you for the information of how accurate the pre xmas trends are as a stat in the winner being in the list,as x ref with other stats leaves me with an interesting list of 6,which may be reduced to 4 depending where i decide to draw the line on weight carried.
#175
March 18th, 2009 12:57
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Well I have to day thats an absolute shocker if garde doesnt turn up . i couldnt see that coming and im amazed that hes been scratched unless hes injured…
Anyway after todays forfeits – surely it’s a four horse race now as the horses previously carring 10- 8 – 11-0 are as good as cooked
SHORT LIST of 4
Rambling Minster
Character Building
Southern Vic
Darkness
OUTSIDE CHANCES
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Certainly not! Surely… ‘in your opinion’. As I’ve said on many, many occassions I had Southern Vic picked out a couple of years ago. But he is a firmly crossed out horse on my list now. Silver Birch had an excuse for not winning for ages as he had been injured, whats Southern Vics excuse? Not won since March 06, forced to get a decent prep run (after Cheltenham) into him which will have taken something out of him, never even ran on ground close to good – will he get the ground? Not to mention he doesn’t fit the Hennessy etc trend. Oh, and he unseated rider last time he jumped National fences. So many unknowns with this horse that I can name plenty that would get in my list over him. I’d much rather take a horse like L’ami who’s only negative is that he has ran and failed before – carrying 11st 8lb. Really chuffed he appears to still be entered.
Plus the likes of Cornish Sett?
Really disappointed with GC. Nice of them to let us know isn’t it
. I expected there was a chance L’ami would be withdrawn as they metioned the National was an after thought, but it was all systems go for GC after Cheltenham. Been stung again on that one. Parsons Legacy all over again :@! Backed at 42s which is frustrating aswell as I could have layed out. Unlucky for those who backed ‘any other’ on Sky Bet for favourite for the GN – Gutted for Nina. Had a real live chance ther imo.
Ah well, in a week were I started to panic that weights would stay the same and therefore lots more coming back into contention I have to take one defeat. Plus L’ami is still in which pleases me. Might have to look at Brooklyn Brownie and Parsons Legacy now that they both appear to remain entered.
Also, for those who still support Butlers Cabin, Mccoy said this the other day:
“I haven’t spoken to JP yet but King Johns Castle and Butler’s Cabin are the obvious ones,” McCoy confirmed. “Butler’s ran OK at Cheltenham, though I’m wondering whether he should have been winning that if he’s going to have a chance in the National.
Couldn’t agree more AP, couldn’t agree more.
Ells
1
#176
March 18th, 2009 13:00
stephen i have checked again and i still make always waining at 41 and Southern vic at 40, (snoopy loopy as not been withdrawn)any one else confirm the bottom 2 places please
#177
March 18th, 2009 13:01
“johnny says:
March 18, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Whats does everyone think of irish invader”
No Chase win at 3m rules him out for me.
#178
March 18th, 2009 13:03
checked the racimg post website and it says he does
#179
March 18th, 2009 13:05
Count it on the Racing Post card Puzzled. Still comes out like I said. I’ve checked three times now lol.
#180
March 18th, 2009 13:06
half day harry.
At the time I looked at about 120 runners so it was easy to make the odd mistake (like I forgot to assess Rambling Minster who does qualify). All I can say is that all the last ten winners had achieved the requirements by Christmas or shortly after (its an amazing fact but true).
You can see the full post dated 17th December under “Grand Natonal 2009 ante-post”. I am using the list myself (more useful if combined with Stephens GN winners profile) to refine my short list – you might like to wait for my “Black Book” assesment which i hope to have out tonight.
#181
March 18th, 2009 13:07
“johnny says:
March 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM
checked the racimg post website and it says he does”
He has a 3m Hurdle win Johnny. Furthest Chase win is at 2m 2f.
#182
March 18th, 2009 13:17
“johnny says:
March 18, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Whats does everyone think of irish invader”
On the face of it you would say no chance,would not fit the profile of a Grand National winner on previous trends,however in a similar way to King John’s Castle last year this horse could be a plotted sleeper as certainly looking Irish Invader’s pedigree you would give him a chance.last win shows he has speed to win at shorter distance from front, and Trainer certainly knows time of day concerning whats needed to win a National,as he showed with Hedgehunter,also how about Training performance with Cooldine in R S A chase at chelt.
#183
March 18th, 2009 13:17
I have Always Waining at 40, not 41.
I think anything outside the top 50 is dodgy now, but does anybody have any stats on this? I seem to remember Dun Doire being number 40 last year. What number was he on 2nd forfeit stage?
#184
March 18th, 2009 13:20
Thanks Systemsman, will wait for final assesment from you tonight and then collate with my own list, things certainly getting clearer now
#185
March 18th, 2009 13:30
Sorry Stephen you are quite right Always waining no 40…..ok so i did not go to school and i cannot count very well
I printed my list from the rp web site and it lists Monkerhostin i refreshed and he has gone, error solved.
#186
March 18th, 2009 13:30
Please see the quote in respect of Snoopy Loopy in my previous post. Although he has not been withdrawn, the trainer has confirmed he will not run in the National.
With this in mind, the weights will rise a minimum of 7lb, 8lb if Norzic doesn’t run and Cloudy Lane becomes top-weight.
This makes the picture much clearer, and I think things are now really taking shape.
On the above basis, State Of Play would be carrying too much weight for my liking as I will work on the basis that the winner will not carry more than 11-1. This also takes My Will out of consideration.
#187
March 18th, 2009 13:39
Go Rambo! Today: “Keith Reveley described Rambling Minster as being “in the form of his life” ahead Aintree.
Reveley said: “He has come out of Haydock smashing and is in great form. Everything has gone well since and I just hope that I can keep him as he is now until the race.”
#188
March 18th, 2009 13:53
Weights and entries as it stands. Hope this is of use to someone. Can’t wait to get home from work and factor this into my calculations.
1 SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-10 Peter Bowen
2 NOZIC (FR) 8-11-08 Paul Nicholls
3 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-07 Donald McCain Jnr
4 AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-06 Noel Meade IRE
5 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-06 Mouse Morris IRE
6 CHELSEA HARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-05 Tom Mullins IRE
7 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-05 Willie Mullins IRE
8 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-04 Nigel Twiston-Davies
9 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-11-04 Carl Llewellyn
10 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-03 Pipe
11 OLLIE MAGERN 11-11-03 Nigel Twiston-Davies
12 STAN (NZ) 10-11-03 VenetiaWilliams
13 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-02 Dessie Hughes IRE
14 HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-02 Mouse Morris IRE
15 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-02 Tom O’Leary IRE
16 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-11-01 Arthur Moore IRE
17 MY WILL (FR) 9-11-01 Paul Nicholls
18 EUROTREK (IRE) 13-11-00 Paul Nicholls
19 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-13 Evan Williams
20 BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-12 Nicholls
21 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-11 VenetiaWilliams
22 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
23 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-10 Jonjo O’Neill
24 HOBBS HILL 10-10-10 Charles Egerton
25 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-10 Charlie Swan IRE
26 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-09 Philip Hobbs
27 REVEILLEZ 10-10-09 Jonjo O’Neill
28 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-08 Nigel Twiston-Davies
29 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-08 Nicky Henderson
30 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-08 Enda Bolger IRE
31 BATTLECRY 8-10-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies
32 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-07 Paul Nicholls
33 FLEET STREET 10-10-07 Nicky Henderson
34 MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-07 Francois Cottin FR
35 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-06 Jonjo O’Neill
36 DARKNESS 10-10-06 Charles Egerton
37 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-06 Willie Mullins IRE
38 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-06 Keith Reveley
39 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-06 Ted Walsh IRE
40 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-05 Peter Bowen
41 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-04 Tom George
42 HOT WELD 10-10-04 Ferdy Murphy
43 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-03 John Quinn
44 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-03 Malcolm Jefferson
45 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
46 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
47 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-10-03 Tom Taaffe IRE
48 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-02 David Pipe
49 CERIUM (FR) 8-10-02 Paul Murphy
50 IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-10-02 Donald McCain Jnr
51 KELAMI (FR) 11-10-02 Lisa Williamson
52 ZABENZ (NZ) 12-10-02 Philip Hobbs
53 ICE TEA (IRE) 9-10-01 Donald McCain Jnr
54 MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-10-01 Nick Williams
55 COMPANERO (IRE) 9-10-00 Johnson Howard Johnson
56 IRON MAN (FR) 8-10-00Peter Bowen
57 MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-10-00 Noel Meade IRE
58 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-10-00 Bob Buckler
59 POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-10-00 Willie Mullins IRE
60 BAGAN (FR) 10-9-13 Martin Todhunter
61 BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies
62 BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-13 Andrew Turnell
63 DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-13 Paul Nolan IRE
64 FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-13 VenetiaWilliams
65 PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-13 Tony MartinIRE
66 IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-12 Roy Wilson IRE
67 KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-12 Pie Mark Bradstock
68 NADOVER (FR) 8-9-12 Charlie Mann
69 PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-12 Richard Phillips
70 SEYMOUR WELD 9-9-12 Charles Pogson
71 NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-11 Ferdy Murphy
72 TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-11 Philip Hobbs
73 OODACHEE 10-9-09 Charlie Swan IRE
74 KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-08 Tom Taaffe IRE
75 DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-07 Tony Martin IRE
76 LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-07 David Pipe
77 OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-07 Philip Hobbs
78 PUNTAL (FR) 13-9-07 David Pipe
79 WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-07 Carl Llewellyn
80 YOU’RE SPECIAL (USA) 12-9-06 Ferdy Murphy
81 ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-05 VenetiaWilliams
82 MILAN DEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-05 David Pipe
83 SANDHURST(IRE) 9-9-02 Edgar Byrne IRE
84 LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-9-02 Colin Tizzard
85 LYSANDER (GER) 10-9-02 Ian Williams
86 MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-9-02 Alan Brown
87 PASS ME BY 10-8-13 Suzy Smith
88 MONT MISERE (FR) 13-8-12 Paul Murphy
#189
March 18th, 2009 13:56
Additional withdrawals – is everyone aware of these.
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-10 David Pipe
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-13 Charlie Swan IRE
BALLYFITZ 9-10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies
OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-08 Paul Nicholls
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-02 J Enda Bolger IRE
PIRAYA (FR) 6-10-10 David Pipe
LOTHIAN FALCON 10-9-09 Peter Maddison
OULART 10-9-09 Dessie Hughes IRE
HOOPY (IRE) 7-9-08 Gordon Elliott IRE
#190
March 18th, 2009 13:57
Well done you ‘lil rascal
#191
March 18th, 2009 13:58
Advance notice that KILBEGGAN BLADE is topping my list at the moment (work still to do tonight). Reassuring words from the Sporting Life site.
Tom George is looking forward to running Kilbeggan Blade, winner of three of his four starts this season.
“I see that Kilbeggan Blade is now set to carry 10st 4lb and it looks like we will definitely get into the National,” said George.
“The race has been the plan since he won his second London National (at Sandown) in December.
“That was his only start over fences this term and we not only did this to protect his mark, but also because he seems to run better over fences after a spin over hurdles.
“His two victories at Sandown came on the back of hurdle appearances and he really enjoys a bit of a change.
“His run at Warwick should have put him just right for Aintree and it was a matter of getting a run into him rather than expecting him to win.
“He’s only had four starts all season and he’ll be going into the National a fresh horse which is the key to him.”
#192
March 18th, 2009 13:59
Hehe – thanks Showlad!
#193
March 18th, 2009 14:06
Ardaghey was the bottom runner last year and he was 54th in the list at the 2nd declaration stage. However, there were 115 left in at this stage last year and so more opportunity for more horses to drop out
If you’ve backed Character or Brooklyn, I think they should be fine for a run, as will the rest of the 10′3 brigade in all probability. If you’ve backed something below that then I would be nervous
#194
March 18th, 2009 14:10
GRAND NATIONAL TOP6 TIPS LEAGUE STAGE 2:
NOW OPEN!!!!
Okay Guys and Gals the next forfeit stage has now been posted up and the next stage of our Top 6 Tips Grand National League is now open!
Newcomers: You rate your TOP 6 horses for the big one and award them points as follows:
Your top horse – 6 points awarded, right down to down to your 6th choice – 1 point awarded.
You adjust the table adding in your points and then post up the newly adjusted table (along with your Top 6 selections for us all to see).
The table is re-set to zero from today (all horses have ZERO points), so all of us will have to adjust and add their points awarded into the overall table in the usual way, except of course the very first ‘expert’ to go today -as they will be kicking off with the first set of points on the new table.
At the end of this Stage 2 table (Closes midnight 29th March) I will analyse the changes in comparison to the Stage 1 table and the final table, Stage 3, will open on March 31st (following 5/6 confirmation stage).
Okay me Heartys who’s gonna post up the Virgin Top 6 Tips to kick off the new Table…
#195
March 18th, 2009 14:13
The Top 70 listed at the outset are usually sfae to get in. The 70th horse on the original list was Arteea, who is sitting now at 48th position, so 48th to 41st should safely make it through – bringing in the following:
41 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-04 Tom George
42 HOT WELD 10-10-04 Ferdy Murphy
43 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-03 John Quinn
44 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-03 Mal Jefferson
45 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
46 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-03 Jimmy Mangan IRE
47 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-10-03 Tom Taaffe IRE
48 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-02 David Pipe
#196
March 18th, 2009 14:47
1. Rambling Minister
2. Kilbeggan Blade
3. Character Building
4. Darkness
5. State of Play
6. War of Attrition
#197
March 18th, 2009 16:00
Can’t have KB due to lack of form in Class 1 chases.
My top 6 as it stands :-
1. Ramling Minster
2. State of Play
3. Character Building
4. Butler’s Cabin (not backed yet)
5. Black Apalachi
6. Darkness (cover bet only)
#198
March 18th, 2009 16:07
My Bets are looking like:
1. Rambling Minster
2. Character Building
3. Kilbeggan Blade
4. Irish Invader / Cornish Sett
struggle to see the winner coming from anyone other than my top 3 with the way the weights are looking.. may have another look at southern vic..
#199
March 18th, 2009 17:49
My top 6 remain almost the same as before, though I reluctantly have to add in Character Building. The weights going up sees Black Apalachi jettisoned.
1. Rambling Minster (backed heavily)
2. State of Play (backed)
3. Kilbeggan Blade (backed)
4. Southern Vic (backed)
5. Character Building (will back as a saver)
6. Darkness (saver)
#200
March 18th, 2009 18:14
I’ll combine the above 2 top 6s along with mine…
1. Rambo
2. Character Building
3. State of Play
4. My Will
5. Himalayan Trail
6. Butler’s Cabin
Rambo 18
State of Play 14
Character Building 11
Butler’s Cabin 4
Kilbeggan Blade 4
My Will 3
Southern Vic 3
Black Apalachi 2
Darkness 2
Himalayan Trail 2
#201
March 18th, 2009 18:44
I’am not sue I can get the Black Book asssmenst up tonight (but will try)igf not it will be up tomorrow as early as possible. Internet Cafe was not onlinethis aftrenoon nera the bookies and I spent all afternon making loads of dosh and then losing some still waiting for the 7.20 at Kempton with Dunes Queen to win with some saver on Peninsuler War.
I can tell you now that Rambling Minster is the oustanding bet for the 2009 GN but there is a surprise for the very short list – all will be revealed later.
Please not that SOP is likely to be weighted out of any winning chance with a 7lb or more likely 8lbs rise even if he is a great horse and one I had to have a very big saver on (it would be foolish to just repost the old scores – lets completly reassess).
#202
March 18th, 2009 18:53
gutted to hear Garde Champetre doesn’t run, only had my old skool few quid e/w on, really in on Rambo! but just thought it would run well (esp. after cheltenham!) and always like to see the 3 1/2mile mark when the non stayers fall away and its 3 of mine against the 3 or so I didn’t back!!! Garde woulda been thereabouts, as we collectively assessed 3rd on top6….oh well.
#203
March 18th, 2009 19:13
rambling minster 6
Character building 5
State of play 4
darkness 3
brooklyn brownie 2
southern vic 1
Rambo 24
State of Play 18
Character Building 16
darkness 5
Butler’s Cabin 4
Kilbeggan Blade 4
Southern Vic 4
my will 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
#204
March 18th, 2009 19:22
Southern Vic 6
Rambling Minster 5
Character Building 4
State of Play 3
Darkness 2
Kilbeggan Blade 1
Rambo 29
State of Play 21
Character Building 20
darkness 7
Butler’s Cabin 4
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Southern Vic 10
my will 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
#205
March 18th, 2009 19:24
Rambo 29
State of Play 21
Character Building 20
Southern Vic 10
darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Butler’s Cabin 4
my will 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
#206
March 18th, 2009 19:26
Rambling Minsyer 6
Character Building 5
Stae of Play 4
Comply or Die 3
Butlers Cabin 2
Irish Invader 1
Rambo 30
State of Play 22
Character Building 21
darkness 5
Butler’s Cabin 6
Kilbeggan Blade 4
Southern Vic 4
my will 3
Comply or Die 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
Irish Invader 1
Not sure if Brooklyn Brownie is to run, think he might be heading for another race at Aintree
#207
March 18th, 2009 19:31
TC Brooklyn is a defo for GN – he is only entered in other race too, in case he misses cut.
#208
March 18th, 2009 19:55
I’ll correct that silver Birch got in before me
Rambo 35
State of Play 25
Character Building 25
Southern Vic 10
darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Butler’s Cabin 6
my will 3
Comply or Die 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Brooklyn brownie 2
Irish Invader 1
#209
March 18th, 2009 20:10
Rambo – 6
Butler’s Cabin – 5
State of Play – 4
Southern Vic – 3
Brooklyn Brownie – 2
Kilbeggan Blade – 1
New totals:
Rambo 41
State of Play 29
Character Building 25
Southern Vic 13
Butler’s Cabin 11
darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Brooklyn brownie 4
my will 3
Comply or Die 3
Black Apalachi 2
Himalayan Trail 2
Irish Invader 1
#210
March 18th, 2009 20:18
From RP:
RUBY WALSH plans to delay a decision on his John Smith’s Grand National mount until much nearer the race – but a betting move on Wednesday suggested that the jockey could optto keep it in the family at Aintree next month.
Walsh, who set a new Cheltenham Festival record when riding seven winners at last week’s meeting, has been expected to partner Grand National favourite My Will or Paul Nicholls-trained stablemate Big Fella Thanks.
However, Skybet, who believe Walsh is 10-11 to select My Will and 11-8 to opt for Big Fella Thanks, have halved the odds about Walsh instead preferring the claims of his father Ted’s Aintree hopeful Southern Vic, now a 20-1 shot from 25-1 with the firm to triumph.”
I hope he opts for Southern Vic. Would be a massive +.
#211
March 18th, 2009 21:57
Himalayan Trail back on my radar – I know the form this season is poor but should Barry Geraghty ride I will have to back this one – he is a class act round Aintree and the horse might rekindle his form in the Spring (Geraghty down to ride Golden Flight according to Henderson but not definite)
Rambo – 6
State Of Play – 5
Southern Vic – 4
Himalayan Trail – 3
Black Apalachi – 2
Irish Invader – 1
New totals:
Rambo 47
State of Play 34
Character Building 25
Southern Vic 17
Butler’s Cabin 11
Darkness 7
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Himalayan Trail 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
#212
March 18th, 2009 22:41
Ok here its is. Systemsman’s final “Black Book” ratings for the GN short list.
All 28 listed in order of price on Oddschecker.con were assessed We are down to a short list of EIGHT but really SIX srong contenders.
Its a basic trends system that is very accurate after the last prep runs and sorts the wheat from the chaff.
Ratings:
Three stars are needed for the serious short list (+ and – also possible)
A – also fits Systemsman pre-christmas GN winners trends
B – also fits Stephens GN winners profile (1/2/3 Scots Nat, Welsh Nat etc etc).
So the highest possible marks are *** (3 stars – with a possible+)plus A and or B
Results – the 3 star short list and the winner of the GN 2009 (in the full 3 star list that is):
One horse stands out clar and sharp – get on!
OR 137 to 144 and Class1 chase winner listed first:
1. Rambling Minster *** A B
2. Darkness *** B
Note: 3 stars only if 33/1 and under on the day (very, very likely). I did say there was a surpise and this is it – Darkness 2nd best if 33/1 or less. I suggest you invest now as 33/1 or under very likely (currently 33/1-40/1[x3].
3. Cornish Sett *** B
Note: 3 stars only if 33/1 or less on the day (curently 40-50/1[x5]. I suggest we wait and see as this one needs price drop. Placed last year will put many of.
4. Parsons Legacy *** A B
Note. 3 stars only if 33/1 or less on the day (curently 33/1 – 40/1{x7). Will he even run? Another wait and see. Needs price drop and we need to know he is running this year.
Or 137 to 144 Class 2 Chase winners.
5. Kilbeggan Blade *** A B
Nore: Pobably a better bet than CS or PL at this stage and in my mind should be third in order.
6. Character Building *** B
Best above OR 144:
7. State of Play *** B
Note: best if 11.01 or less (11.02 possible)
8. Black Apalachi *** A B
Not: Likley to have far too much weight (11.04 or 11.05)
So only EIGHT runners score 3 stars
3 against the field at this stage – back all three:
1. Rambling Minster (16/1 still available!!)
2. Darkness
2. Kilbeggan Blade
Others scored two stars or less or were eliminated for very good resons (above 11.05 in weight, PU twice this season etc).
This result has surprisd me as much as you as I expected to have CB clear second but it only confirms my own serous doubts about CB being quite good enougth to win (but could be placed). However each of the eight has a chance of winning accordng to the 3 star rating.
Now what do you think??? There is little more I can do other than watch the price profile which I will report on from time to time (the eve of the GN and again the morning of the GN is best).
#213
March 18th, 2009 22:47
Looked again at My Will
This must be the bookies’ favourite horse
Only wins in small fields but always seems to run a nice race and leaves the impression that there is more to come next time
His only win in a double-figure field was a joke of a race where half the field jumped like novices and made terrible mistakes
Flatters to deceive
Come on Ruby – keep it in the family son
#214
March 18th, 2009 22:50
Correction
Change:
“2. Darkness *** B (?)”
Note: The B for Stephens GN winners profile was missed by 1f (2×3 wins at 3miles including one at 28f. Darknesss won at 27f so I gave it the benefit of the doubt – have now added the (?). Technically he does not qualify for the “B”. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance chase however and its my gut feeling he has neen laid out for the GN 2009 but can he beat Rambo?
Change:
“7. State of Play ***(+) B”
#215
March 18th, 2009 22:54
Cornish sett is missing from your lists. What is wrong with you?!
#216
March 18th, 2009 22:59
Systemsman,
Excellent stuff and i’m sure we’ll all be glad that Rambo came out top of the pile!!
My comments for what they’re worth: The form-book suggests that Darkness may not enjoy the Grand National experience as he has been dire in very big fields. I can’t back him because of that. I know he has had a wind op but history shows that there’s not much money to be made by backing also-rans from previous years so I can’t have Cornish Sett either. Black Apalachi probably requires testing ground to be at his best and Aintree issued a report today saying that the going is on the slow side of good. The long range forecast suggests that it’s going to be largely dry over the next few weeks so he probably won’t get his ground.
So of your list I would avoid those three and focus on Rambo, State Of Play and Parsons Legacy I’ve backed the first two but will only back Parsons Legacy once it’s NRNB.
#217
March 18th, 2009 23:01
Systemsman
“Laid out for the GN 2009″
Surely the following horses have been too:
Cloudy Lane
Snowy Morning
Comply Or Die
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
King Johns Castle
My Will
State Of Play
Silver Birch
Cornish Sett
Irish Invader
Rambling Minster
Southern Vic
Hot Weld
Kilbeggan Blade
Brooklyn Brownie
Character Building
Himalayan Trail?
#218
March 18th, 2009 23:31
My current top 6. Cornish sett rates highly for me as it fits the stats and am not bothered about it finishing down the field last year. Horse had breathing problem and to me if Hedgehunter hadnt fallen right near the end the year before it won he would have broken this stat.
Rambling Minster 6
Cornish Sett 5
Character Building 4
State of Play 3
Darkness 2
Parsons Legacy 2
New totals:
Rambo 53
State of Play 37
Character Building 29
Southern Vic 17
Butler’s Cabin 11
Darkness 9
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Himalayan Trail 5
Cornish Sett 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
Parsons Legacy 2
#219
March 18th, 2009 23:44
very interesting, been busy and my thoughts are all over the place with regard to
“winner if not Rambo”
weights rise of 7/8lb makes things clearer.. yet I feel more confused about these similarly low weighters in terms of their consistancy, jumping ability and stamina.
Getting down to it now, discussing jockeys, interesting points earlier here about CBs jockey maybe not necessarily getting the right tune out of the horse?! another reason to hold out on final bets!
Suprises on your list systems, great work
I only see Rambo winning in that really, more worried (slightly), about SV which suprises me as not a fan, but blinkers!+ Ruby = maybe… Brooklyn Brownie looks like the one I shoulda bet on earlier now best 40s. Still can’t see past Rambo
#220
March 18th, 2009 23:47
Further correction (I was rushing it out a bit):
“Change:
“2. Darkness *** A B (?)”
Pablo
I never suggested other horses were not laid out for the GN just that Darkness who I make 2nd best was. Up untill recently he hardly got a serious mention by most.
#221
March 19th, 2009 00:47
Herewith my top 6 at this stage:
RAMBLING MINSTER – 6
STATE OF PLAY – 5
CHARACTER BUILDING – 4
DARKNESS – 3
PARSONS LEGACY – 2
SOUTHERN VIC – 1
New totals:
Rambo 53
State of Play 39
Character Building 29
Southern Vic 18
Butler’s Cabin 11
Darkness 10
Kilbeggan Blade 6
Himalayan Trail 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#222
March 19th, 2009 00:59
My list has changed quite a lot. Here you go:
KILBEGGAN BLADE – 6 POINTS
RAMBLING MINSTER – 5 POINTS
BUTLER’S CABIN – 4 POINTS
DARKNESS – 3 POINTS
SOUTHERN VIC – 2 POINTS
CHARACTER BUILDING – 1 POINTS
New totals:
Rambo 58
State of Play 39
Character Building 30
Southern Vic 20
Butler’s Cabin 15
Darkness 13
Kilbeggan Blade 12
Himalayan Trail 5
Brooklyn Brownie 4
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#223
March 19th, 2009 03:27
Systemsman,
What do I think.. Apart from Rambling Minster, I think you are over worked and have gone mad. Darkness,Cornish,Parsons,State O.P. and forget the last one.
Remember last year, you and wako insisted 4 prep runs at least.
Won a chase with 13 runners or more and lets write off any horse that finished in the GN. Those 3 rules gave us a list of 5 which included COD.
Now you also want to write off the 49 day rule for 2 horses with only 2 prep runs, that haven’t run in 99 & 113 days and are about to run in the race of their lives. One of which P.U. in his last race.
I don’t know what to say. I don’t have a crystal ball, so maybe your spot on but I thought we worked with the stats, instead of predicting when they would bite us in the ass.
#224
March 19th, 2009 06:57
My top 6 are…
Rambling Minster 6
Character Building 5
State Of Play 4
Brooklyn Brownie 3
Kilbeggan Blade 2
Southern Vic 1
New totals:
Rambo 64
State of Play 43
Character Building 35
Southern Vic 21
Butler’s Cabin 15
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Brooklyn Brownie 7
Himalayan Trail 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#225
March 19th, 2009 08:18
Just a quick question given Southern Vic’s 4th place in the league table. Are we sure he’ll run if the going’s good?
Another point – CB’s OR is now 145 following his Cheltenham win.
#226
March 19th, 2009 09:09
My top 6:
Rambling Minster 6
Character Building 5
Southern Vic 4
Himalayan Trail 3
Butler’s Cabin 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
New totals:
Rambo 70
State of Play 43
Character Building 40
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Brooklyn Brownie 8
Himalayan Trail 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#227
March 19th, 2009 09:12
Whoops didn’t fully update totals, these are correct:
New totals:
Rambo 70
State of Play 43
Character Building 40
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Brooklyn Brownie 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#228
March 19th, 2009 09:21
My poorold Cornish Sett went missing again.
New totals:
Rambo 70
State of Play 43
Character Building 40
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Brooklyn Brownie 8
Cornish Sett 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
#229
March 19th, 2009 09:29
Doesn’t meet lots of trends but beware of writing off Irish Invader as a non-stayer
This one has Busted as its damsire and jumps very well
Busted is also the Dad of Bustino – the damsire of Russian Trigger who stays all day
Not saying it’ll win but could be an Irish springer in the market over the next couple of weeks with Snowy Morning and possibly Black Apalachi and Hear The Echo having too much weight now
#230
March 19th, 2009 09:38
It’s happened again. Points for Cornish Sett have disappeared! This wouldn’t have happened on Magpie with Jenny Handley.
6-Cornish Sett
5-Rambling Minster
4-Character Building
3-Brooklyn Brownie
2-State Of Play
1-L’Ami
I think any of the top 3 can win on the trends/GN winner profile. Brooklyn for a place could be the one to slightly alter things, hasn’t had a 17k win. For me State Of Play is also running for a place – and I hope it gets one too because I backed it at 33/1 – as no GN winner, I think since the second world war, has had such a long break, since it’s last run.
scoreboard;
Rambling Minster 69
State of Play 45
Character Building 39
Southern Vic 21
Butler’s Cabin 15
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Cornish Sett 11
Brooklyn Brownie 10
Himalayan Trail 5
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
L’Ami 1
#231
March 19th, 2009 09:40
I think in the last 10 yrs+ the highest recorded RPR of a GN winner is 170. Would it be safe then to rule out all horses with an RPR 170+???? Would mean scratching quite a few if so.
#232
March 19th, 2009 09:42
New Scoreboard;
Rambling Minster 75
State of Play 45
Character Building 44
Southern Vic 25
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Darkness 13
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Cornish Sett 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 2
parsons legacy 2
L’Ami 1
#233
March 19th, 2009 10:07
Prices dropping across the board now!
Looks like the build up to the race is gathering pace.
#234
March 19th, 2009 10:30
Stan James had My Will at 8-1 the other day – madness – not much value around now – apart from Rambo at 16’s – tempted to have some more as I’m pretty sure he will be down to nearer 10’s on the day – Whilst Black Apalachi may now have too much weight, I am convinced that he may be one of the best horses to lay in running -backed him early at 20-1 – he led all the way round in the Becher and jumped well – feel he will be standing well after the first circuit and will probably trade short in running – he is a definite front runner – this is always and advantage in the big race as you generall stay out of trouble (falling, refuding horses etc) – that is a slight worry for Rambo – I reckon he will come from off the pace and may be hampered by other horses – hopefully the boy Reveley will give him a COD-Murphy ride around the outside – much less trouble than travelling around the inner
#235
March 19th, 2009 10:44
Stumbled across this blog whilst surfing for the GN weights – great work everyone !!
I always back 2 in the big race – we all know so much can happen / go wrong if you just lump on only one – and am now very happy that a split stake each way punt on BC & CB is the way to go – it also helps that they’re roughly the same price.
Reasons ? (here goes) : have slowly whittled the field down to 4 and it’s with a heavy heart that I’m discarding the 2 other strong trends horses – SOP & Rambo.
Firstly SOP……as a Hennessy winner with previous Aintree form he was the one for me initially. BUT. When Snoopy comes out he’ll be left on 11-1. Is he a potential Hedgehunter ? (one of the best winners of the race I ever saw and backed his performance up with a superb 2nd in the Gold Cup a year on). Sadly, I think not. Closer inspection of his Hennessy form leaves me with the impression that it was a fairly weak race…..as, arguably, was this year’s Charlie Hall. Yes he’s been deliberately kept fresh but when was the last time a horse overcame such an absence to gain glory at Aintree ?…..now if he were trained by Charlie E of course……!!
Now on to Rambo – a COMBINATION of all the stats point to him as THE ONE…..but several things put me off. 1) I feel he may have peaked too early (not many have triumphed in April off the back of back to back wins – who was the last ?…..help please fellas) 2)No winner of the RedSquare has every gone on to win the GN (no reason I can see why this should be……but a stat all the same) and 3) I can’t be placing an 11YO Aintree virgin in front of 2 9YOs with equally persuasive profiles – the last 2 “vets” to triumph were the vastly experienced Amberleigh House and Red Marauder !! – nuff said about that particular trendbuster (the race shouldn’t have even been run in my opinion – it was only cos it was the National……and has nothing to do with the fact that I backed him the year before !!)
And so to the bet / recommendations. Incidentally I had neither BC or CB down initially – usually a good sign for me ! – as I was purely focused on the “mustn’t back a Cheltenham horse at Aintree / must back one that’s been laid out”. I do agree that, overall – and certainly, recently – it’s better to favour this type of build up……but it should NEVER be the b-all and end-all.
BC – Firstly then, the 2 negatives (3 if you include McCoy in the National as a negative – and you shouldn’t be reading this if you do – he is the KING) He ran at Cheltenham and he’s French Bred. Go on admit it – they’re the only reasons aren’t they ??
On to the positives then : proven in large field handicaps, a touch of class (won Irish National), proven stamina (won the NH Chase), running into form / a “spring” horse, proven over the National fences (well…..21 of them anyway !!) and a fairly good/knowledgeable owner, trainer, jockey combination. IF he stands up I cannot see him being out of the frame.
CB – Negatives ? – Ran (and won !! – worse statistically, far, far worse) at Cheltenham…….oh – and he’s a grey. As for the comments about the jockey ? – yes I’d love him to be ridden by Ruby or someone but go back through the records and you’ll find some pretty “average” types have triumphed…..i.e. Costello ? – not a problem (not as good as McCoy but you can’t have everything can you……well – not at 14/1 you can’t)
Positives – just watch the Kim Muir again……how many horses win handicaps at Cheltenham like that……ok a few but not many (and certainly not National contenders). I just feel that they’ve finally got him worked out – he’s always had the talent. Allied to this he’s got terrifically consistent form (just twice out of the money – valid reasons both times ?) His form ties in very closely with BC & Rambo and we KNOW he’s in great form – unlike Rambo.
As I’m splitting my stakes equally on the 2 of them I also like the fact that I’ve got one running over the fences for the first time and the other one trying his hand again after falling when going well the year before – therefore “covering” myself against the first timer vs previous experience argument….of which there is no clear leader (or is there ?)
And a final thought…….how many times have we looked at a big race result and subsequently discovered that it was the same 1-2 as in another race / big race…….lots ?…….well I’m just hoping that the race turns out to be the 2007 NH Chase !!
I’ve got a grand in my pocket – £200EW on the both of them (any advice on now or when NRNB comes in would be appreciated) and £200 to be used on the day (probably in combination Exactas & Trifectas)
Thanks again for all the helpful hints guys…..and Good Luck !!
#236
March 19th, 2009 10:46
Just about recovered from the awful Garde withdrawel news,my “Seychelles for the summer” dream is now over,its always the danger with ante-post betting but still a sore one to take at this late stage and one i couldn’t see coming as his price was solid on Betfair
Thats me firmly in the Rambo camp now and his price is dropping.
Hope 16s holds out til payday so i can have another plunge!
#237
March 19th, 2009 10:47
“miinnehoma Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 3:27 AM
Systemsman,
What do I think.. Apart from Rambling Minster, I think you are over worked and have gone mad. Darkness,Cornish,Parsons,State O.P. and forget the last one.
Remember last year, you and wako insisted 4 prep runs at least.
Won a chase with 13 runners or more and lets write off any horse that finished in the GN. Those 3 rules gave us a list of 5 which included COD.”
Reply:
Wrong: I have never used the four prep runs or argued for it. Three is the norm but this year a number of people have made a case for two being possible due to all the bad weather.
The Black Book ratings are a guide for the final short list and have to be used with common sence and other trends as you point out. For what its worth of the eight with three stars I dont fancy SOP, BA due to weight and PL is too big in price and may not run. My own selections in order will be posted next.
So use the lsit of eight and take out any that dont fit your own best trends (that how it was designed to work).
#238
March 19th, 2009 11:07
My top 6 based on yesterdays announcements and performances since weights day;
1) Rambling Minster – 6 points
2) Character Building – 5 points
3) Darkness – 4 points
4) Southern Vic – 3 points
5) Parsons Legacy – 2 points
6) Irish Invader – 1 point
Revised leaderboard;
Rambling Minster 81
Character Building 49
State of Play 45
Southern Vic 28
Butler’s Cabin 17
Darkness 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Cornish Sett 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
parsons legacy 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#239
March 19th, 2009 11:17
Way, way back on the old thread I posted about horses who were ‘well in’ at the weights and those who had been clobbered by the handicapper. Given that most have had their final prep run by now, I thought it might be useful to update the current position based on the new ORs from yesterday vs GN OR:
Horses well in:
Darkness 8 lbs
My Will 8 lbs
Rambling Minster 6 lbs
Character Building 5 lbs
Roll Along 5 lbs
Snoopy Loopy 4 lbs
Irish Invader 2 lbs
Offshore Account 2 lbs
Southern Vic 1 lb
Big Fella Thanks 1 lb
Horses clobbered:
Butlers Cabin 13 lbs
Chelsea HArbour 8 lbs
Hear The Echo 8 lbs
Priests Leap 7 lbs
Stan 6 lbs
Hot Weld 6 lbs
Tumbling Dice 6 lbs
Reveillez 4 lbs
Golden Flight 4 lbs
L’ami 4 lbs
Horses carrying between 1-3 lbs more than current mark; Snowy Morning, Ollie Magern, Comply or Die, Mon Mome, Hobbs Hill, Fundamentalist, Battlecry, Fleet Street, Can’t Buy Time, Always Waining, Himalayan Trail.
Please Note: This analysis only covers the top 47 horses in the revised list of 88.
#240
March 19th, 2009 11:23
Get a grip miinnehoma and check your facts. I have now just spent ten minutes rechecking all eight listed in the “Black Book” short list and I see no problem at all.
3 prep runs (we never ever used 4!!)
RM
DARK
KB
CS
CB
SOP
BA
PL
So I make that 8 form 8!
Won a Cahse with 13 runnners or more:
RM
KB
CB
SOP
BA
PL
Darkness has been placed twice in races with 13 runners or more (3/15 and 3/16) and won with 12 so gets the benefit of the doubt.
So I make that 7 from 8 and 8 from 8 if we include Darkness.
Placed in GN
Cornish Sett.
Yes and very good reasons to consider this one exception for the short list. Meets almost all the main trends. Won Class 1 chase this season and 2nd in the Welsh Nat this season – you could not ask for more and if he was not placed last year would be in the top three of everybodys list (many still rate him highly).
I have already stated I dont trust PS to run (too high in price)but he does meet all rends and was also supported by many (and me) last year.
So Mini who needs the tablets now?
#241
March 19th, 2009 11:28
My list:
1. Rambling Minster – 6pts
2. Darkness – 5pts
3. Kilbeggan Blade – 4pts
4. Character Building – 3pts
5. Cronish Sett – 2pts
6. Parsons Legacy – 1pts
Revised leaderboard:
Rambling Minster 87
Character Building 52
State of Play 45
Southern Vic 28
Darkness 22
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 18
Cornish Sett 13
Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
Parsons legacy 5
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#242
March 19th, 2009 11:32
My top 6 (I am scoring them as in if the GN was run today therefore i am only looking at the current top 40 as these at the moment are the only ones guaranteed a race)
1) Rambling Minster – 6 points
2) State of Play – 5 points
3) Darkness – 4 points
4) Parsons Legacy – 3 points
5) Southern Vic – 2 points
6) Cornish Sett – 1 point
Revised leaderboard;
Rambling Minster 87
State of Play 50
Character Building 49
Southern Vic 30
Darkness 21
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 14
Cornish Sett 12
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Parsons Legacy 7
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#243
March 19th, 2009 11:36
Systemsman beat me to it so with both scores included the Revised leaderboard is:
Rambling Minster 93
Character Building 52
State of Play 50
Southern Vic 30
Darkness 26
Butler’s Cabin 17
Kilbeggan Blade 18
Cornish Sett 14
Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
Parsons legacy 8
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#244
March 19th, 2009 11:49
Just a point on Cornish Sett. I know some people are excluding him as he ran down the field in last years race. But he was running really well until weakening 2 out and he just seemed to run out of puff.
He has had a wind operation since and this has shown an improved horse I think.
So he may well not run out of puff at the business end this year.
So I think this is a good reason to forgive that stat and included Cornish Sett on your short lists.
#245
March 19th, 2009 11:53
“Slim Pickings (beaten 21 1/2 L), who travelled strongly again off his 7lb higher mark but finished tired in fourth and DIDN’T GET HOME THIS TIME, and Bewleys Berry (beaten 29 1/2 L), who has a great record round here but was FOUND WANTING FOR STAMINA in the end”
“Cloudy Lane (beaten 32 1/2 L)…NEVER really looked like being a major player”
“Cornish Sett(beaten 62L)…ran really well until WEAKENING over the last few fences”
Given that Cornish Sett had his wind operation before last year’s National how will he win this year? Am I missing something?
#246
March 19th, 2009 12:01
Found this quote from Nicholls re Cornish Sett after Wincanton race
“He was struggling with his breathing last season, ” Nicholls said. “I gave him an operation before the National [in which he finish 12th] and maybe that has just helped him a bit. Ruby thought he might have picked the wrong one, but I am pleased for Nick as he has done a lot of work on him.”
#247
March 19th, 2009 12:06
Boyles rep on At the Races says Rambo their biggest loser followed by BC.
#248
March 19th, 2009 12:07
Cornish Sett
Why he should be put out to grass: Operation to cure wind problems since his last race in December may bring improvement, but needs to. Best qualification is that he is related to two National winners. Odds: 150-1
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/whos-hot-and-whos-not-in-todays-big-race-804957.html
#249
March 19th, 2009 12:25
1 – Rambling Minster – 6 Pts
2 – Butlers Cabin – 5
3 – State of Play – 4
4 – Cornish Sett -3
5 – Character Building – 2
6 – Parsons Legacy – 1
Making the table;
1st Rambling Minster 99
=2nd Character Building 54
=2nd State of Play 54
4th Southern Vic 30
5th Darkness 26
Butler’s Cabin 22
Kilbeggan Blade 18
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Parsons legacy 9
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
#250
March 19th, 2009 12:30
Why are people uptight about Cornish Sett? I you don’t fancy him, don’t bet on him. Won Badger Ales and 2nd Welsh GN this season. Couldn’t have done that with a head start last season.
Why did Rag Trade finish tenth/last in 75, get a hike of 10lbs and then win Welsh National and GN, the only horse to beat Red Rum at Aintree on his favoured favoured good ground, in 76? Why did Little Polveir come 9/17 in 86, fall in 87, ur in 88 and then win relatively easily in 89?
#251
March 19th, 2009 12:33
Hi
Darkness should be on 28 – 2 higher. Performance Factor only added 1 even though he scored him 3 points – quite a way back up the table, but not been allowing me to leave any messages for a few days :@
Ells
1
#252
March 19th, 2009 12:37
Well after taking a massive hit due to Garde Champetre im now looking to find a suitable replacement and after looking through the list over and over again i just cant see past Rambo and SoP.
I know people are championing Character Building but the way i look at it is that horses that win the national are normally in the frame (stats / trends wise) well before there final prep runs and the final prep run just confirms what we already know about the horse i.e. Rambo, CoD last year, SilverBirch etc.
Character Building needing that win to even be considered by many, myself included so on that basis i have seen sense (or not as the case may be) and decided against Character Building and am now going back to the list of horses just after the weights were announced and looking at the form of horses on that list since then to find a suitable replacement for Garde Champetre.
#253
March 19th, 2009 12:40
I know people are championing Character Building but the way i look at it is that horses that win the national are normally in the frame (stats / trends wise) well before there final prep runs and the final prep run just confirms what we already know about the horse i.e. Rambo, CoD last year, SilverBirch etc.
Sorry, I dont agree. Comply or Die was by no means in the frame before his Eider run, and Rambling Minster, whilst being mentioned by a few on here, had not run well enough at C1 level to convince most that he could actually win. He was 20/1 for his last race remember…
Character Building met the stats before that race, I think he did anyway. I am more put off by his attitude, or lack of fight more accurately, in a tight finish.
#254
March 19th, 2009 12:44
like Denman and people!!! maybe it takes a while to get the benefits from an operation, so the fact that Cornish had his wind op b4 last years GN is excusable. He is a better horse now and deserves consideration, think there may be a couple better on the day but thats racing, still going to be thereabouts, still on my list which I’ll get round to soon, only have enough time at moment to get up to date with all your posts!!!
What does worry me tho is him going back out to 50s again and way out on betfair, has he had a setback or are all his fans here?!
#255
March 19th, 2009 13:01
Daniel Edwards Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 12:40 PM
I know people are championing Character Building but the way i look at it is that horses that win the national are normally in the frame (stats / trends wise) well before there final prep runs and the final prep run just confirms what we already know about the horse i.e. Rambo, CoD last year, SilverBirch etc.
Sorry, I dont agree. Comply or Die was by no means in the frame before his Eider run, and Rambling Minster, whilst being mentioned by a few on here, had not run well enough at C1 level to convince most that he could actually win. He was 20/1 for his last race remember…
Character Building met the stats before that race, I think he did anyway. I am more put off by his attitude, or lack of fight more accurately, in a tight finish.
Comply or Die last year and Rambling Minster this year (albeit missed off Systemsman early list as an oversight) had met certain trends of other winners prior to there last race before the national.
Character Building met the trends with his last race prior to the cheltenham so the race at cheltenham does not in my opinion reinforce how good a horse he is.
At the end of the day im just explaining as to why i wont be backing him and im not trying to put anyone off backing him or criticising people that already have.
#256
March 19th, 2009 13:06
At the end of the day im just explaining as to why i wont be backing him and im not trying to put anyone off backing him or criticising people that already have.
Me too!
#257
March 19th, 2009 13:07
As long as you get to the winner, that’s the important thing. But I find it interesting that people are disregarding certain trends to suit some horses by saying you should take each horse on it’s merit which in many ways I think is a fair point and good advice. Then they lump a load of horses together by saying unplaced horses have a poor record!
Days since last run; 16-52 days 36/36 (two winners in this period were previously unplaced)
Now sit back and watch State Of Play/Parsons/War Of Attrition bolt up ….!
#258
March 19th, 2009 13:21
Saw the final three/four fences of Character’s win at Cheltenham for the first time today. I thought he won easily. After his second behind Butlers Cabin in 07 at 33f at Cheltenham I bet his connections hope that the GN will be moved to Prestbury Park.
I watched Butlers performance in same recent race at Cheltenham with interest. And you know what, I think he he ran well at a distance obviously too short for him, and with luck in running might go close at Aintree. 9 yr old CB’s still looks like a jaunty youngster but Butlers, who I know is also a 9yr old but may be due to past exertions, looks like an older horse, say an 11 yr old who needs four miles just to get going. And I haven’t backed him!
#259
March 19th, 2009 13:25
As the race nears the tension is obvious on the blog
Just to throw my little bit in the ring if i may……
We all know the stats and facts by now and at the end of the day it comes down to personal preference, come 4th April some would have got it right, and some not.
Personally i apply trends, facts, my own oppinion, then more importantly the hard core form facts, there is no better guide than your eyes.
Lets take Character building for instance…..sure his win in the Kim Muir did indeed see him meet all trends(or there abouts) but to watch the race he was on the bridle 2 from home carrying top weight and beat the likes of Butlers cabin giving him 4 lb in the process, now when i watch this race again i can see that he is a real contender based on this race and the style of his win.
Now if we go onto Butlers cabin who lets not forget is a 134 rated chaser going of 147 in the national(he is hardly thrown in) with a 5 lb (could be as much as 7or8 lb on the day)weight rise, and will be giving for the pleasure of his beating Character building 7 lb for his 4 lb beating so in theory he has to turn around 11 lb with form figures this season of 8-0-8-5.
So no amount of trends Butlers might meet or the fact that he was running well last year, before he fell can convince me that he will finish in front of Character building…..logically it is just not feasible.
So my advice would be to go back to basics and let your eyes be the untimate guide.
#260
March 19th, 2009 13:27
The days since last run stat is very strong crisp 73 – I’m just struggling to logically see why a horse that goes best fresh can’t win a National?
#261
March 19th, 2009 13:46
Character Building reminds me of that old hurdler who whenever he hit the front would pull himself up and so the jock was forced to keep him on the bridle right until the dying strides and because of it could never time the run quite right.
Character Building won on the bridle at Cheltenham. I dont think he would have won if he was off the bridle.
I cant see him running the entire GN on the bridle.
Therefore I cant see him winning the GN.
#262
March 19th, 2009 14:09
I cant see him running the entire GN on the bridle.
Breed by Roselier, high cruising speed, I can. Well upto the Elbow anyway when they’re all knackered and with my lumpy EW bet on him I’ll be happy even if he is nudged out in a battle. That bet was placed 11 months ago though so the value on that has long since gone, hard to recommend him as value at the current 14/1 prices available.
#263
March 19th, 2009 14:13
Plus all Character Building’s wins have come on undulating courses Daniel.
#264
March 19th, 2009 14:14
To think that CB was trading at around 90 on betfair shortly before Cheltenham – hope some of you guys had a bit of that.
#265
March 19th, 2009 14:23
I thought horses that ran in the Cheltenham Festival were a ‘no go’ when considering potential winners for the GN???
My two are: Rambo, Killbeggin Blade with a third yet to be decided. Surely with 19 horses (at the mo) running on 11st or close to the 11st mark some of these need to be considered??? Last year I think only a couple of horses carried 11st+ with Comply just above the 11st mark.
#266
March 19th, 2009 14:26
Cornish Sett hard to fancy for me because P last time out, doesn’t look well-handicapped and didn’t get home last year
Character Building hard to fancy for me because his two best performances have come in Class 2 Amateur events, in some races he has declined the battle, has been beaten twice by Rambling Minster this season, for a so-called out-and-out stayer he has yet to win over more than 26f and he doesn’t look as well-handicapped as others (compared with best RPR)
#267
March 19th, 2009 14:28
I should also say, the 19 horses that are above (my cut off of 10st 12lb)State of Play and above and maybe up to and including Chelsea Habour.
#268
March 19th, 2009 14:29
Cornish Sett beaten 92L not P
#269
March 19th, 2009 15:04
Tony Blair was still popular when Southern Vic last won a race.
#270
March 19th, 2009 15:15
Hi Folks – back after a break and enjoying the new thread. I wanted to comment on the prep races thing that seems to be overlooked this year. Systemsman – last year you definitely were an advocate of minimum 4 prep races. To confirm I’ve dug up (and updated) some of your comments from last year.
……..”Here are the runs/results prior to their GN win for the last ten years from August preceeding the year of their win in April.
2008 1 (race before GN) 2.PU.16 =4 runs
2007 2.4.2.8 = 4
2006 3.4.4.BD.4.8 = 6
2005 1.6.10.4.2.9. = 6
2004 5.PU.2.4.3 = 5
2003 4.6.3.1.3 = 5
2002 7.6.3.3.5.7 = 6
2001 F.2.5.5.4.1 = 6
2000 3.9.4.5.7.8 = 6
1999 1.4.5.13.8.5 = 6
1998 5.6.1.5.5 = 5
So you see every winner for the last ten years has had between 4 and 6 prep races. So allowing for a possible miner change in the trends we should exclude any horse with less than 3 prep races.”
State of Play would not be included & Darkness/Parsons look weak on 3 runs a piece.
#271
March 19th, 2009 15:17
I didn’t realise Tony Blair was ever popular.
#272
March 19th, 2009 15:18
Think Systemsman advised earlier that this year may be different due to the bad weather – possibility of those with 3 prep runs prior to the race running well
#273
March 19th, 2009 15:19
Southern Vic beat Chelsea Harbour and Preists Leap last time out – he’s been running against Class 1 horses at or near level weights and is way better off in the National
He is handicapped to win a race
#274
March 19th, 2009 15:28
Well after going back to basics to search for any other decent value bets (not including Rambo and SoP as i already have moeny on these from earlier in year) the only one that i could consider at this time of putting any money on is Darkness at 40-1.
So at the moment my three against the field are Rambo
State of Play
Darkness
I will add one more at the 5 day dec stage but at the moment i aint a clue who this will be as none are appealling to me.
#275
March 19th, 2009 15:29
Indeed Pablo and let’s not forget that the horse was off the course from January 07 to October 08 so in those 21 months couldn’t have won a race.
#276
March 19th, 2009 16:28
When im considering marginal horses or more accurately ones that are splitting opinion, like Southern Vic appears to be, I like to look back through the form COMPLETELY ignoring any stats.
If we did not know about the stats, can anybody honestly put their hands on their heart and say Southern Vic has any chance? let alone a 20/1 chance? I would be very surprised if anybody could.
He has a history of jumping mistakes,
He has been found wanting at the top level numerous times,
In his only run beyond 25f he didnt complete the course (Becher 2008)
So he doesnt look as though he is good enough, we dont know if he will stay, and there is a fair chance he will not even get round. Ignoring the stats for a moment, do people agree with this or not?
I appreciate he ‘meets the stats’ but there’s a few horses that do each year (See D’argent last year) but ignoring them, I cant see how anybody would want to back him on examing his form.
I am getting more and more confident on Rambo, although I have today re-considered Darkness’ runs in the Scottish and Welsh National and had a small saver bet on him. I dont like making excuses for horses, but in the absence of many other leading contenders and with good enough ground at Aintree, I would not be at all surprised to seem him run a decent race and at 33/1 he is a good ew price.
#277
March 19th, 2009 16:34
What does everyone think of Brooklyn Brownie? I’ve been hearing some people talking this up recently but don’t know alot about it to be honest.
#278
March 19th, 2009 16:40
Agree 100% Daniel, I’ve been opposing SV from day 1. The aim now seems to be to find an alternative and it’s getting more and more difficult so I suppose the temptation is to clutch at straws. Let’s face it, Rambo could be brought down or not be right on the day. Anything could happen. In this case, who’s going to win? State of Play and Character Building seem the most likely with BC being the unknown quantity. Can he produce the goods? I can’t escape the thought that Hear the Echo could also be good enough at his best to lug round 11-04 in what could otherwise be a poor field. See, clutching at straws!!!
#279
March 19th, 2009 16:42
DomiDarko says:
March 19, 2009 at 4:34 PM
What does everyone think of Brooklyn Brownie? I’ve been hearing some people talking this up recently but don’t know alot about it to be honest.
He was one I was keeping an eye on back in Dec/Jan time hoping he would prove himself at the top level. Unfortunately he hasn’t run in a decent race for a while, so I think if you are backing him you are taking a big leap of faith and will need to see a dramatic improvment.
He did beat Snoopy Loopy in June however, but I dont think his could do worse than have a small speculative ew bet on him at big odds, but I cant see him winning.
#280
March 19th, 2009 16:42
Sorry, that last paragraph should say;
…but I dont think his last 3 runs have screamed out Grand National winner, but you could do worse…
#281
March 19th, 2009 16:48
Notelppa, ref: HTE apparently Mouse Morris has finally chucked the toys out of the pram saying he is going to the Irish national as he is better handicapped there. Hope you didn’t have anything on Ante-post, more free money for the bloody bookies following Garde yesterday.
#282
March 19th, 2009 16:51
Is that a definite Brody? Was it in the Racing Post today?
#283
March 19th, 2009 16:58
Darkness just can’t see it winning or finishing tbh. A horse that’s only run well for Tony McCoy, has never won in a big field (max 9 runners), Scottish PU Welsh PU, far from a sure jumper, only thing that screams dark horse to me is the name and its not even dark
#284
March 19th, 2009 16:59
Daniel,
I appreciate that we don’t know that Southern Vic will stay but we can’t be sure that many of the field will get 4m4f.
I think to say he has been “found wanting at the top level numerous times” is somewhat unfair as he has only run in 8 chases outside of novice company and one of those 8 runs brought Grade 3 success. Other runs outside of novice company include a race when he was giving a horse like Cane Brake over 20lbs, a race where he was taking on the likes of the Listener, Beef or Salmon and WOA at levels and a 2m4f chase where he was up against Mansony and Thyne Again. He was not disgraced in any of those races and just the other day finished ahead of Chelsea Harbour and Preists Leap on much worse terms than he meets them at Aintree. Whether 20/1 is a great price is questionable but i’m happy enough with my 33s.
#285
March 19th, 2009 17:01
Stephen Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Is that a definite Brody? Was it in the Racing Post today?
Not definite but very likely, would hold any bets.
#286
March 19th, 2009 17:06
tnanks to everybody for making this a brilliant place to build up to the big race, your expertise and dedication is very impressive. having considered everything that has been written (or as much as possible!)and applied my own judgement i give you the winchester scores:
Rambling Minster – 6
State of Play……5
Killbegan Blade….4
Darkness………..3
Parsons Legacy…..2
Hot Weld………..1
Running Totals:
1st Rambling Minster 105
2nd State of Play 59
3rd Character Building 54
4th Southern Vic 30
5th Darkness 29
Butler’s Cabin 22
Kilbeggan Blade 22
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Parsons legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
L’Ami 1
Hot Weld 1
#287
March 19th, 2009 17:09
I appreciate we dont know if most of them will stay 4m4f, but we do know that quite a few of them will stay 4 miles or thereabouts, and we do know if even more of them stay 3m4f….We dont even know if Southern Vic stays that far, that was my point.
Yes, ok, in some of his C1 races he was running off levels as you say, but the Bobbyjo run I cannot forgive I am afraid and by not completing in both the Becher and the Thystes Chase he has big doubts in my mind. Couple this with a history of bad jumping, and IMO there are 10 or more with better chances. (Granted though his jumping seemed a lot better in his last run with cheekpieces)
#288
March 19th, 2009 17:28
RAMBO – 6
CHARACTER BULDING – 5
STATE OF PLAY – 4
BUTLERS CABIN – 3
PARSONS LEGACY – 2
HOT WELD – 1
1st Rambling Minster 111
2nd State of Play 63
3rd Character Building 59
4th Southern Vic 30
5th Darkness 29
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 22
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 11
Himalayan Trail 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Irish Invader 3
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#289
March 19th, 2009 17:53
Exact quote from today’s RP ref HTE “WoA is fine and the plan is to run in the national. If he goes to Aintree, then the likelihood is that HTE will miss the national and go for the Irish Grand National instead.”
Definitely one to swerve.
#290
March 19th, 2009 17:59
Just been down to W. Hill to place a stonking big bet on Darkness and Cornish Sett to back up the big bets on Rambo and KB – yes my own money is where my mouth is (also got CB and a few others now to high in the weights). Waiting on PL who no doubt will let us down again and head for the Scots Nat or something (it will be my last bet if needed).
If you want to bet on the “Dark One – he who is to be feared” or CS get on at WHill NOW (CS 50/1, 40/1 the Dark one)will be all gone very, very soon.
Dont get me wrong I am a Rambo fan 100% but we do need a few others to cheer on on the day dont we? It wooudnt be fair to let Rambo win too easily would it?
Going on holiday for a week to Bournemouth so will not post much for the next 7 days (I’am spending some of the winnings early!!!!).
#291
March 19th, 2009 18:03
Admin plase can we have the old blog system back so we dont have to click through every page of 50 post to get this far.
#292
March 19th, 2009 18:21
ThaiMark
Cant you read I stated last year
“So allowing for a possible miner change in the trends we should exclude any horse with less than 3 prep races.”
So the trends stated 4 prep races but I advised three (not four!!) So please stop playing with words out there.
#293
March 19th, 2009 18:26
Thiking of the Aintree meeting itself – going to back STARLUCK who will run at the meeting – was impressed with the way he travelled in the Triumph and his form on flatter tracks with the emphasis on speed this season as been first class – beat Silk Affair convincingly at Kempton who went on to win at Cheltenahm – profits onto Rambo – he is so far ahead in the table – imagine this blog on 5th April if he does the biz!
#294
March 19th, 2009 20:00
Steady Systemsman steady. You did ask what do you think. Sorry if it sounded a bit rough. Bless you and all your work.
#295
March 19th, 2009 20:21
Admin, If you build it right they will come, if you don’t, it’s the start of the end.
Crisp 73
Love your work and Stephens, showing the profile of the last 30 odd winners. Now I am not knocking Cornish, infact I see a few reasons why he could win but I have 11 horses that I think could win and I need to cut the list.
#296
March 19th, 2009 20:54
J Rambo says:
March 19, 2009 at 6:26 PM
Imagine this blog on 5th April if he does the biz!
I just keep having a terrible thought of, imagine this blog if he didn’t do the biz.
Think the pre-race nerves have well and truly kicked in on me which is a lot earlier than normal but think thats got a lot to do wit GC being withdrawan and now hastily doing all my research again to find a back up.
The news about HTE isn’t too bad for me as i had already given up on the money i had put on him earlier in the year so hopefully no-one has been to badly burnt if it is the case he will be withdrawan.
#297
March 19th, 2009 21:41
i have backed rambling minstrel state of play, hot weld, cornish sett, darkness, chelsea harbour, hear the echo, kilgeggan blade,
any more i should really consider as you guys seem to know your stuff, do you think i will get a winner out of any of these
#298
March 19th, 2009 22:05
I know he needs a few to come out (probably too many) so probably won’t get a run but what do people make of Maljimar as one to keep an eye on should a lot drop out? To be honest I always considered him a 2m4/2m5f horse but he ran really well in the William Hill to go down to Wichita Lineman by just a neck. I know that he has not won over 3m but that that was only his second try at the distance. His pedigree suggests that he should get further than the distances that he’s been running over – his sire Un Desperado has sired class acts like Best Mate but also thorough stayers and proven Aintree performers like Nil Desperendum and Philson Run. His dam’s sire, Mister Lord, has also produced horses with plenty of stamina, including National 3rd Lord Atterbury and other stayers of note such as Earthmover and Lord of Illusion.
#299
March 19th, 2009 22:22
now theres a thing won a right wack on nil desperandum and philson run in the past so i might if he gets in have alittle dabble on Maljimar
#300
March 19th, 2009 22:25
Corals have just snipped Rambling Minster to 14s, leaving just Totesport and Victor Chandler with 16s. If you’re going to top up chaps, now is the hour.
I was at Aintree over the last few days and the place is already dressed up and looking great – it was bathed in spring sunshine, the spruce fences are ready and waiting. Roll on April 4. Roll on Rambo.
The ground is almost certainly ‘good’ and I think ground staff are even doing selective watering. Without a bit of sprinkling the natural going may even be on the firm side, which will not be allowed.
The track dries pretty quickly at Aintree (the Grand National course less so than the Mildmay, especially towards the Canal Turn) and there’s no rain forecast for the next few days so I think further watering between now and the meeting is a cert.
Softer going is really dependant on significant rain during GN week itself, but for it to be ‘heavy’ going I think we would need several deluges in the short-term run-up to the race like in 2001, 1998 or 1994 or a prolonged downpour overnight on the day itself.
The Met Office is forecasting showers for the Liverpool area between now and April 4, but there’s no heavy rain on the horizon at the moment. Things can change, of course. Ask Michael Fish.
The clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch will give the official line in the next few days but I’d be amazed if he’s currently expecting anything other than good going.
It was interesting to hear trainer George Reveley’s comments about how Rambling Minster is at its peak of fitness and how he is desperately hoping to keep him on the boil until the big day.
Like a previous poster I do have slight fears that Rambo may have peaked a few weeks early – it is so difficult to retain a horse’s fitness and enthusiasm over several months and, yes, I do believe a horse can be too much in form to win a GN.
Has anyone as yet named the last horse to win a GN after back-to-back wins?
I have faith in Rambo though – he looks an outstanding choice. After Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy’s mounts, I can see him going off third favourite at 9s, 10s or possibly 12s.
The 16s still available are delicious, even for those of us lucky enough to have snapped him up much bigger prices. Tuck in.
#301
March 19th, 2009 23:31
1. Rambling Minster
2. Irish Invader
3. Character Building
4. Darkness
5. Brooklyn Brownie
6. Kilbeggan Blade
Running Totals:
Rambling Minster 105
Character Building 58
State of Play 54
Southern Vic 30
Darkness 29
Butler’s Cabin 22
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Cornish Sett 17
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Parsons legacy 9
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
L’Ami 1
#302
March 19th, 2009 23:33
Sorry, those tables were all wrong! Here goes:
Rambling Minster 117
State of Play 63
Character Building 63
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 23
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#303
March 20th, 2009 00:03
Of the leading fancies (see below)in the blogger voting list which prefer Good and Good/Soft (and have won on it)? And which only win on Soft Soft/Heavy? I’am sure someone’s has got these facts to hand to post up for us all saving us all some more work.
Rambling Minster 117
State of Play 63
Character Building 63
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 23
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
#304
March 20th, 2009 00:09
Just noticed the “Dark one” now 4th and creeping up that table.
Amazed SOP still so high with the big weight he will carry (and I also love the horse but that weight a big no for a top 3 position in the short list in my book. I’am fairly sure it will be plus 8lb by GN day))- but we all have our opinions and thats the fun of the table – a great resource.
16/1 on Rambo at this stage amazing – get stuck in while you can wont last more than a day or two more. I’ll even take 14/1 when it occurs.
#305
March 20th, 2009 01:28
I’ve seen hardly a mention of King Johns Castle. I can’t believe, as a relatively unexposed runner, this is still available to back on the exchanges at 28s. 2nd last year when the trends didn’t give it an earthly’s. This year the only trend it appears to miss out on is the 2 runs in a season minimum. It had its prep over hurdles just the other day, and ran well enough according to the RP. It appears in Mordin’s list as joint top, and most of the others in his shortlist have serious negatives against them or won’t run (which really is a serious negative). Ah,I hear you cry, it will be carrying over 11st. Well, rather than stick rigidly to that barrier, why not use the (in my view) better trend that EVERY recent winner has been within 12lbs of the bottom weight? That will apply to KJC, regardless of whether Snoopy Loopy, Nozic or Cloudy Lane is top weight. I’m on.
#306
March 20th, 2009 01:31
i am on rambling minster @25/1. there will be at least another 2lb rise leaving me with about 17 horses. the only ones i might fancy over 11st are priests leap and state of play but 11st is a pretty big negative. form wise i lose reviellez, always waining and hot weld. I strongly believe cornish sett wont stay or improve on last year. so i am left with silver birch who i only didnt back when it won as it was so slow i couldnt see it winning on good ground, parsons legacy who some people say might not run, fleet street, killbeggan blade, brooklyn brownie, character building, himalayan trail and of course rambling minster.
my selections
1. rambling minster
2. priests leap
3. state of play
4. character building
5. silver birch
6. fleet street
#307
March 20th, 2009 01:35
OK Guys I’ve freshly evaluated the runners and here is my Top 6 …there’s quite a change from my last Top 6 during Stage 1’s voting…
1st – RAMBLING MINISTER – 6 POINTS
2nd – DARKNESS – 5 POINTS
3rd – BROOKLYN BROWNIE – 4 POINTS
4th – STATE OF PLAY – 3 POINTS
5th – CHARACTER BUILDING- 2 POINTS
6th – HOT WELD – 1 POINT
New Table:
Rambling Minster 123
State of Play 66
Character Building 65
Darkness 37
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 23
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#308
March 20th, 2009 02:11
Systems – I wasn’t trying to be confrontational and did copy your “should accept 3 prep runs” comment. None of us want to accept that only 1 horse can win it so some trends get stretched
My top 6
1. Rambling Minster
2. Character Building
3. Darkness
4. State of Play
5. Himalayan Trail
6. Kilbeggan Blade
New Totals
Rambling Minster 129
Character Building 70
State of Play 69
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 25
Kilbeggan Blade 24
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Himalayan Trail 10
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#309
March 20th, 2009 02:27
I suppose what I’m getting at is that, weights wise, people are shifting from “it must carry less than 11st” to “it must carry less than 11st 1lb” after Hedgehunters win. Either that or ignore Hedgehunter entirely. Well, what greater merit, if any, does that approach carry than mine (and others) that says the weights issue should say look at any horse that carries no more than 12lbs above the bottom weight? After all, in my view, the closer the bottom weight gets to 11st, the more you are going to have to factor the over-11stoners into your calculations.
And I speak as someone who has had not insubstantial wagers on CB, KB, HT and RM.
But if KJC does the business, I can afford to vote “No” to my next pay rise offer and man the picket lines for a few months!
#310
March 20th, 2009 09:11
Well the last two bookies caved in. It’s 14/1 across the board now on Rambo!
Looks like everyone else that isn’t on this blog has finally cottoned on
#311
March 20th, 2009 09:39
Morning all
I’d like to start the day with a quiz (I’m not looking for all correct answers…..just the ones you know would be helpful) :
Q1 – Who was the last French bred to win ?
Q2 – Who was the last winner who started the race coming off back-to-back wins ?
Q3 – Who was the last horse to win carrying over 11-1 ?
Q4 – Who was the last winner not to have run in the calendar year ?
Q5 – Who was the last winner to have won at the preceeding Cheltenham Festival ?
Q6 – Who was the last winner older than 10 not to have run over the Aintree fences before ?
Q7 – Who was the last winner younger than 8 ?
Q8 – Who was the last grey to win ? (you know this – I know this…. but I’ve spotted something……the answer is Nicolaus Silver 1961…..off the back of his win in the…….Kim Muir !!……interesting……don’t know if this answers Q5)
Getting increasingly sweet on BC……I know he’s 13lb “wrong” but I can’t help making comparisons between this year and 2007 (his best ever performance, in the Irish National, coming 3 weeks after a hard race at Cheltenham, in the NH Chase)……just feel he’s a horse that is a) best in the spring and b) thrives on being “hard raced”
I’m not too worried about him being wrong at the weights……I’d far rather have a horse that appears to like the place (through the years how many horses that are apparently out of form everywhere else they run, then “come alive once they spot the spruce”) than an untested one that may end up hating the place.
But to completely contradict myself there are also the types that are soured by the whole experience (I bloody well would be after being asked to jump Becher’s twice) and spit their dummy out when they return…….at the end of the day you just hope yours is not one of ‘em !!
And as for my other one (CB) ? – I watched the Kim Muir again yesterday……..WOW !!…….sometimes you just have to go with what you see with your own eyes……11st 12lb and never had a race……admittedly the bottom weight one only had 10-13 but even so…….he’ll feel as free as a bird going round Aintree with 10-5 on his back, won’t he ?
*NB* Something else about these 2 not mentioned in my earlier post – they’ve both ran over hurdles this season…..a HUGE plus (stats wise)
As they say, it’s all about opinions – and these are mine (certainly wouldn’t want to put anyone off their own carefully hatched plans/coups and everyone seems to make a persuasive case for their own)
So when BC falls and brings down CB the first thing I’ll do is get back on the blog and see who was right !!
Answers to the Qs then chaps please ?
#312
March 20th, 2009 09:57
Q1 – I think it was Lutteur III in 1909. With the number of French breds in training one will win sooner or later. Encore En Pieu, Royal Auclair and Clan Royal have gone close recently.
Q2 – No idea.
Q3 – Corbiere 1983
Q4 – No idea
Q5 – Seagram 1991
Q6 – Guess at Minnehoma 1994
Q7 – Bogskar 1940
#313
March 20th, 2009 10:49
am i being a pessimist” only the way all firms are laying
it looks like to me the GRAND NATIONAL will go “off” with 8(eight)
equal 6/1 FAVOURITES!!!!
MY SMALL ANTE POST PORTFOLIO,,
MY WILL @34/1,36/1, 40/1, 42/1 20/1, 14/1
BIG FELLA THANKS, 40/1, 16/1
KING JOHNS CASTLE, 170/1,65/1,
CONNA CASTLE, 65/1,340/1 300/1
WELL BEST OF LUCK TO ONE AND ALL,
#314
March 20th, 2009 11:28
anyone with suppersoccer account rambling still 18/1 there
#315
March 20th, 2009 11:32
Ground Dependent;
Q2, Highland Wedding ‘69 was the last winner to come here on back to back wins, was actually on a four timer.
Q4, Since 1960, and possibly since the second world war, only Specify, 84 days has not race within 8 weeks of the GN. Aldaniti raced 52 days before his win. 46/48 have raced between 10-49 days of the GN. No horse since the mid 60’s has raced less than 2 weeks before.
Q6, Recent stats are not good for 11 yr olds taking part in the GN for the first time. However this may be just an ‘occurence’ as in the last 25 years Last Suspect, Maori Venture, Mr Frisk and Seagram all won GN in their first appearance as 11yr olds.
#316
March 20th, 2009 11:41
Crisp,
I think Minnehoma also won the race as an 11yo debutant.
#317
March 20th, 2009 11:44
Hi Admin, just a request if possible. Any chance of Making the newer comments >> link take you right to the end of the blog as most people using this site are all doing just that because we are on it so often, i.e going to the end log and then tracking back to the last read log and then reading the rest ?
#318
March 20th, 2009 11:51
My Top Six
Rambling Minster 6pts (seems in a league of his own)
Parson’s Legacy 5pts (only neg days since last run)
Black Apalachi 4pts (needs sft & sl high in weights)
Butlers Cabin 3pts (needs gd but prom run L T O )
Himalayan Trail 2pts (fits trends needs to improve)
State of Play 1pt (hard desiscion between SOP & Character Building picked SOP because of memory of 2 wins after lay off 1 at Aintree & other at Newbury plus think Rambling Minster has beating of Character Building .Thanks to all contributors,really enjoying the debate.
The scores now are
Rambling Minster 135
Character Building 70
State of Play 70
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 28
Kilbeggan Blade 24
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 18
Himalayan Trail 12
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 7
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#319
March 20th, 2009 11:58
What do the forumites think about the fitting of a first time tongue tie to Character Building in the Kim Muir?
#320
March 20th, 2009 12:03
Stayer- you’re right about Miinnehoma. I only mentioned the others purely as extra information for Ground Dependent.
#321
March 20th, 2009 12:05
Thanks Crisp.
It has been a little while since an 11yo triumphed so we must be due another one!
#322
March 20th, 2009 12:13
Sorry correction to Black Apalchi’s score it should be 8 not 7.
The scores now are
Rambling Minster 135
Character Building 70
State of Play 70
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 28
Kilbeggan Blade 24
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 18
Himalayan Trail 12
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 8
My Will 3
Comply or Die 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#323
March 20th, 2009 12:32
just one thing on “the dark one” looking at the form on rp website he does seem to fall out with jockey that don’t carry the last name mccoy?? most of his places or pus not all but most are when AP is not on board?
#324
March 20th, 2009 12:47
My top 6 is as follows:
1 Rambling Minster 6
2 Butlers cabin 5
3 Kilbeggan Blade 4
4 Offshore account 3
5 State of play 2
6 Comply or die 1
Running totals:
Rambling Minster 123
State of Play 65
Character Building 63
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 30
Kilbeggan Blade 27
Cornish Sett 17
Parsons legacy 13
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 4
My Will 3
Offshore account 3
Comply or Die 4
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#325
March 20th, 2009 13:02
Rambo now into 12’s with bet 365, and yesterday all the 16’s dried up mainly 14’s now……this could be the steady constant flow of money for him that i expected…..whats the odds of co favourites of 3 or 4?
Well i guess all my bets have been placed now i looked through them all this morning, Rambo obviously being my main gamble i counted them up all those spare 10 and 20’s that i have been placing soon amount up, it’s surprising….lets just hope he does the business.
#326
March 20th, 2009 13:03
Those aren’t the updated totals I’m afraid ChoccaBloc
#327
March 20th, 2009 13:07
1 Cornish Sett 6
2 Rambo 5
3 Character Building 4
4 State of Play 3
5 Parsons 2
6 Black Apalachi 1
Running totals:
Rambling Minster 128
State of Play 68
Character Building 67
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 30
Kilbeggan Blade 27
Cornish Sett 23
Parsons legacy 15
Brooklyn Brownie 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Irish Invader 8
Black Apalachi 5
My Will 3
Offshore account 3
Comply or Die 4
Hot Weld 2
L’Ami 1
#328
March 20th, 2009 13:11
Added my scores to ChoccaBloc so must be wrong, will update shortly.
#329
March 20th, 2009 13:19
ChoccaBloc’s score
1 Rambling Minster 6
2 Butlers cabin 5
3 Kilbeggan Blade 4
4 Offshore account 3
5 State of play 2
6 Comply or die 1
My scores
1 Cornish Sett 6
2 Rambo 5
3 Character Building 4
4 State of Play 3
5 Parsons 2
6 Black Apalachi 1
Updated scores-hope they are correct.
Rambling Minster 146
State of Play 75
Character Building 74
Darkness 41
Southern Vic 30
Butler’s Cabin 33
Kilbeggan Blade 28
Cornish Sett 23
Parsons legacy 20
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Himalayan Trail 12
Black Apalachi 9
Irish Invader 8
Comply or Die 4
My Will 3
Offshore account 3
Hot Weld 3
L’Ami 1
#330
March 20th, 2009 13:21
Puzzled – it’s just the fact that you can less than 16/1 on Betfair now. No bookies have any bollocks any more, they just follow the machine. If they did have any balls they’d probably be trading themselves on Betfair rather than sitting in an office in Stoke working for Bet £3.65!
#331
March 20th, 2009 13:26
That’s spot on Jack. I regularly check the Betfair AP market as you know when Betfair price is trading < the bookies price the bookies price isn’t going to last much longer. SOP is currently around 19s on Betfair so the 20s available with most bookies will start disappearing. Anyone who wants to get on @20s best do so soon.
#332
March 20th, 2009 14:15
Totally agree on the bookies. Bunch of cowards. I can’t imagine they have taken much at all on Black Apalachi from any serious punter for weeks and until we see what ground conditions will be like and yet he is 12’s across the Board. You would think one would offer a 14’s or 16’s and try making a book!
I have just had a last £30 e/w on Rambo and like many others on here stand to win a lot of cash if he comes up trumps. As others have said, he could fall, be brought down, get carried out or anything and so I do hope everyone in the Rambo camp is having stake money savers on another few runners that meet the trends and their trends.
I KNOW I stand to be shot down (no need for replies!) but I don’t at all fancy My Will or Butlers Cabin. Their being French Bred is part of it but far from all. So, I think we have a couple of soft favourites there and I won’t be backing either of them at all. I am not convinced that CB has the resolution to win the race but have had a saver on him, as I felt that I had to.
All of the 16’s on Rambo has now gone. Last night I seen that Coral, Tote and Chandler were 16’s on Rambo – but when I went to back him this morning with all 3 it had disappeared (literally overnight!). My own opinion is that Rambo will not start any less than 8/1 and more like 10/1 and so we are reaching the point soon (perhaps already) where it is not worth backing him ante post. No point risking losing your ante post cash for the sake of a couple of points.
Interesting post on the possible runners thread (by Puzzler or Stayer I think) that Nichols is classing Nozic as 50/50 and so we may see another 3lb hike in the weights if he and Snoopy Loopy don’t run. In that eventuality and as the weights would be compressed like never before, I would certainly not discount horses due to carry up to 11st 2lbs, which meet trends, are in decent form and get their ground.
#333
March 20th, 2009 14:27
I agree your sentiments re: having a saver bet Whiterab.
At the moment, I cannot see past Rambling Minster. BUT if something did happen to him, im covered on some other stats horses, mainly Butlers Cabin but also Cornish Sett and Character Building (cant see them winning, but just in case) and Darkness (Darkness for a very small amount) and a couple of non-stats ones in State of Play and Parsons Legacy.
Still should have a ‘green book’ on Betfair by the off though. Worst result is a £20 loss at the mo, but should be able to lay off some Rambo soon and turn that into win-win across the board.
Think I might switch off for a day or two now; I woke up thinking about Butlers Cabin this morning!! How sad…
#334
March 20th, 2009 17:52
Thanks for answering the Qs, Stayer & Crisp (bonus titbits from the both of you too – Ta) Jonny V ? – we have our answer !
I bid everyone a relaxing weekend – but doubt the blog will get much sleep……until next week then fellas.
#335
March 20th, 2009 18:18
Daniel thats really funny what you said about waking up thinking about BC…..for the last 3 weeks or so the first thing i do when i get up is put the RP web site on and hope their is no bad news…..lol.
I was only thinking today what with all the sorting through over 100 horses and looking back through past form and stuff i must have spent time every day over the last 3 months on this one race in some way or another…..3 months for something that will all be over in around 10 minutes
#336
March 20th, 2009 18:19
……and as for you Daniel, you should be ashamed of yourself – but it did make me laugh as I TOTALLY know where you’re coming from cos I WENT TO BED thinking about Butler’s Cabin. I’m better than this……I want the days back when I used to go to bed thinking about what I was going to do to those two 6ft Swedish Blondes rather than how I feel about two 16 Hand Irish horses.
Must be getting old……
#337
March 20th, 2009 19:18
Swedish? forget about it they have a terrible record in the race, haven’t won for over a hundred years
#338
March 20th, 2009 19:47
snoopy loopy out ……. on rp website weights to rise a further 3 pounds and nozic doubtful due to this.
#339
March 20th, 2009 19:54
help please – narrowing down nicely now with weight increase, stumbling over a few so some advice would be useful; silver birch (am i just being loyal after having him at 33s) and offshore account.
#340
March 20th, 2009 20:34
I wonder if Donald McCain is saying to Mr Hemmings, ‘Why the hell should we let Cloudy Lane take the strain of top weight. Let’s go for something else!’ Who wants to be top weight!
#341
March 20th, 2009 20:41
Cloudy will definitely run in my opinion. Trevor loves the race and the plan will have to been to come back this year all along.
#342
March 20th, 2009 21:32
Can you see Donald McCain pursuading any owner to scratch a horse from the National? Who was the last horse to win with topweight? His Dad’s pride & joy.
#343
March 20th, 2009 23:20
so if the weights go up another 3 lb i wonder how many of us will still include State of play in our final 6? 11-4 if far to much for my liking.
#344
March 20th, 2009 23:25
correction 11-2 for state of play
#345
March 21st, 2009 00:08
11′2 winnable weight for State Of Play if it stays
Achieved more by this stage of his career than Hedgehunter in my opinion
Can he win without a recent run? Well he sure as hell cannot with a recent run.
But as advised previously I tipped a 167-1 double running on to Rambling Minster at 20-1 so I am biased towards the Reveley runner although State Of Play and Southern Vic will be included in my Aintree yankees
#346
March 21st, 2009 00:55
Hi all
.
Just discovered a very small something whilst looking at recent winners experience of good ground (as SV’s lack of it worries me). Anyways I stumbled across Number6ValVerde and noticed that he didnt come top 3 in a chase in winning season. I believed this was a 19/20 stat. With only Papillon not doing (but he came 3rd in a hurdles race). Number 6 also came 3rd in hurdles race that year but just seemed odd as I have this stat written down. Could anybody confirm or deny this for me please
Almost finished my final analysis with some very interesting results. SV’s recent third had made me think Im going to have to have a saver bet on him – to cover my stake. Still totally uninterested in BC as I have been since he won Irish Nat. But some of my more fancied runners have become a little more doubtful. Will reveal all in next few days.
Keep up the good work all
Ells
1
#347
March 21st, 2009 01:19
Lough Derg
Look at Silver Birch form – all wins on Soft or worse – Aintree is genuinely Good ground these days – ok for horses that like a bit of give. Think about it – why do Irish horses that run on bad ground do so well at Aintree? Traditionally fast track but no longer fast for GN because of Animal Rights. Hurdles races are run on a different course.
Last ten years:
Bobbyjo
Papillon
Monty’s Pass
Hedgehunter
Numbersixvalverde
Silver Birch (racing in UK primarily)
Also explains why some Irish runners do well running over shorter distances and can stay the National trip – because of heavy ground at home and better ground (still with some give at Aintree)
There are lots of examples of Irish runners winning at Cheltenham at longer trips than they are used to in Ireland (Ninetieth Minute a good recent example, thankfully)
Stayers have to stay the distance – obvious but often overlooked
#348
March 21st, 2009 01:49
Put it this way – I do not believe we would have seen so many recent Irish GN winners if the ground was faster than good over the past ten years – and would want a horse carrying my money to be able to act on slower ground
#349
March 21st, 2009 02:30
Hi Pablo
That wasn’t really the question I wanted the answer to lol. I was hoping someone could tell me about the 19/20 stat when Number6 doesn’t seem to meet it either.
With regards to SV I was merely checking as he appears to be at his best on heavy. I was only saying how I came across the question I asked. Had I bothered to post my findings I would have stated that on findings I decided SV’s form on soft/heavy ground makes his form on good unkown, but not necessarily unbackable. But I didn’t bother to post these findings as this wasn’t the reason for my post. I agree with your response tho, altho I would still prefer a horse who runs well on good and has proven it.
All this being said, I have gone back to square 1 with SV. I don’t think he will win. I’m going to have literally enough to cover my stake and that will be it. Here’s why:
Negatives (imo):
- No proof he will get thr ground
- Ran last race quite soon to GN and appeared to be knackered and all out at the end of it.
- Already fallen over GN fences
- Not won since 06
- Never ran further than 25f
- Until LTO has been a very dodgy jumper at times
- Doesn’t meet the top 5 Hennessy trend etc
*All negatives which on their own wouldn’t be enough to put you off whatsoever but when put together make other horse’s profiles much more attractive imo*
Positives:
- Appeared to jump superbly well when wearing blinkers for first time LTO.
- Had him down as a National winner 2 years ago. Backed him accordingly. Was rumours that he would be aimed at GN in future.
They are my findings on SV and I was worried for a while that I may have come round to this horse. Unlike BC I’ve decided he is worth having an extremely small wager on, but purely to cover myself.
Ells
1
#350
March 21st, 2009 02:31
Top 6 -
Character Building 6
Rambling Minster 5
L’Ami 4
Butler’s cabin 3
Darkness 2
Southern Vic 1
New Totals -
Rambling Minster 146
Character Building 76
State Of Play 72
Darkness 43
Butler’s Cabin 36
Southern Vic 31
Kilbeggan Blade 28
Parsons Legacy 18
Brooklyn Brownie 17
Cornish Sett 17
Himalayan Trail 12
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
L’Ami 5
Comply Or Die 4
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
#351
March 21st, 2009 04:18
Right, finally finished my final analysis. Surprised myself with some things.
Even without weight rise was really starting to doubt SOP. As I’ve said before, main positive for me is the trainers confidence. Without that I wouldn’t be too sure. Plus appears to be too high in the weights now come race day. Not saying a horse can’t win from that mark, (If it was Rambo I would reconsider) but if there’s enough questions you can ask about a horse when hes carrying that sorta weight then I’m happy to cross off list.I have a fair wedge on this horse as I knew it would run and thats its odds would shorten, will lay out both stake and some profit closer to the time (put on my preferred horses)
My Will and Butlers Cabin firmly crossed out. Did quite like My Will long before Cheltenham but again too many question marks for a horse carrying that sort of weight, plus looked to have a tough race in GC.
The major worry for me was unlike Systems I seemed to have gone the other way with Darkness. As you all know I’ve been a huge ambassador for this horce. Picked it out in early analysis and had small wager with a view to piling on if it ran well next time out. Which it did. However on looking from scratch little worried. Obviously the two PU’s in Nationals are a worry. Altho I thought jumping was fine in last race, is known to be poor at times, and as many have mentioned, need a decent jumping round at Aintree to win. Have come back around slightly on looking again, but won’t feature as highly in my rankings as previously. Again I’ve backed heavily on this 1, will lay out stake on the day.
Also realised the strength of CB’s profile. Liked him long before Cheltenham run. Backed him last year for GN but didn’t run after Hennessy
. However wanted to see more this season. Like Darkness had small wager at longer odds with a view to placing more with a better run. Very impressed with performance at Cheltenham and as Ive said on many many occassions… A trend is a trend, but we have to use our common sense. I would much rather have a horse win easily at Cheltenham and not have to work very hard, than have a horse place off the bridle and all out. I don’t care whether Cheltenham winners don’t win or not. The point is My Will and Butlers Cabin are the 2 current favourites and both undoubtedly had tougher races than Character Building. It doesn’t matter about their position. Same goes for SV’s final prep race on 14th. Look at him at the end – knackered. Has some very classy form – 3rd in quality Hennessy and I love horses that have already proven they can stay. My top two being Rambo and CB. CB was 2nd to BC over 33f and Rambo won over 33f. Gets rid of the ‘will they stay’ question that most other horses carry. 1 less thing to worry about. Only negative with this 1 is whether it will find anything off the bridle? But everthing else is there and happy to have wedge on it.
Finally, with L’ami. Still really really like. Great profile and seems to be enjoying himself for first time in yonks. Looks to be 10lb better off than when carrying 11-8 round 2 years ago when only 8. Think it has class that most others don’t and can honestly imagine hearing his name being called coming up the straight.
Anyways enough of my ramblings, here’s my top 6 – assuming weights go up 2-3lb, doesn’t make any difference.(no bias, doesn’t matter what money I have on, just purely based on my final analysis):
1.) RAMBLING MINSTER – 6
2.) CHARACTER BUILDING – 5
3.) L’ami – 4
4.) Cornish Sett – 3
5.) Brooklyn Brownie – 2
6.) Parsons Legacy – 1
Darkness just misses out. He is the only other 1 I might have profit on. Only other backable is SV – literally just to cover stake. If the winner is outside those 8 I’ll be amazed.
Current Table:
Rambling Minster 152
Character Building 81
State Of Play 72
Darkness 45 – (Been waiting to do this for ages – Back on March 19th, Performance Factore only added 1 even though he scored him 3. I believe this hasn’t been rectified).
Butler’s Cabin 36
Southern Vic 31
Kilbeggan Blade 28
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Brooklyn Brownie 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 4
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
#352
March 21st, 2009 05:57
Nice post Lough. In complete agreement on your top 2 and Betfair seem to be taking a similar line. Only horses currently under 20s (apart from RM & CB) are My Will, BA, BC, & BFT. Only 3 under 27s – SV, HTE & SOP.
I’m stressed this year as Rambo is the clear stats horse and I worry the trends are going to be re-written.
#353
March 21st, 2009 06:36
“Lough ‘ So Tough’ Derg says:
”
March 21, 2009 at 12:55 AM
Hi all
Just discovered a very small something whilst looking at recent winners experience of good ground (as SV’s lack of it worries me). Anyways I stumbled across Number6ValVerde and noticed that he didnt come top 3 in a chase in winning season. I believed this was a 19/20 stat. With only Papillon not doing (but he came 3rd in a hurdles race). Number 6 also came 3rd in hurdles race that year but just seemed odd as I have this stat written down. Could anybody confirm or deny this for me please
You are indeed correct Lough. Number6 ran in two chases in the season of his GN win. He was brought down in the Paddy Power Chase and came 4th in the Pierse Chase. I don’t use the Chase stat myself. I prefer the “top 3 finish in ANY of the previous 3 races” stat.
#354
March 21st, 2009 09:31
Silver Birch won the grand national on good ground, bordering on fast – hence why i backed mckelvey that year. not sure about the only soft ground comment. not sure whether it can win again with prep it has had but i reckon it could go well.
#355
March 21st, 2009 09:36
Lough Derg “1 less thing to worry about. Only negative with this 1 is whether it will find anything off the bridle?”
Have a look at Rambos new year run – he flew home and last time out he didnt even have to shake the reigns he simply cruised home
#356
March 21st, 2009 10:35
TC Lough was talking about CB not Rambling, CB has form of not finding much if he hits the front too early.
Nice post btw Lough can’t disagree with any of that. Do rate SV a bit more than you, but the jockey choice on that will tells us everything we need to know about his chances I think.
#357
March 21st, 2009 11:09
Well boys.. 2 weeks to the Big Day
Let’s hope collectively we can all do really well.
See Rambo is into 12s with 4 bookies online inc Paddy Power. Also into 14s on betfair.
Can anyone provide the most recent word on Parson’s, please?
Is this actually going to be the year he shows, lol
#358
March 21st, 2009 11:19
Showlad Says:
March 21st, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Can anyone provide the most recent word on Parson’s, please?
Is this actually going to be the year he shows, lol
Dave Mitchell of Daily Mirror quotes in his column this morning that all so far is well.
#359
March 21st, 2009 11:42
“SILVER BIRCH won the 2004 Becher Chase, but was a faller at the Chair in last year’s Grand National, having previously spent time on the sidelines with a leg problem. It may have been felt by some that conditions would prove too lively for Silver Birch, but on watered ground, which produced a carpet-like surface, he appeared to be in his element throughout…”
It was not fast ground…
…and very unlikely to be this year either.
#360
March 21st, 2009 11:42
Thanks Half Day
Anyone know the last word from his camp – from the horses mouth – so to speak, or does this article quote his camp Harry?
Like a lot on here frightened to bet on him in case he doesn’t show again..
#361
March 21st, 2009 11:55
Was looking for another horse to have a dabble on and i am drawn to KILBREGGAN BLADE who fits most of the trends and is actually 6lbs better off with rambo who he beat by 4 1/2 lengths at sandown in december over 30f.At 33s, is this a value bet? Any pos or neg feedback on this.
#362
March 21st, 2009 12:02
Showlad Says:
March 21st, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Anyone know the last word from his camp – from the horses mouth – so to speak, or does this article quote his camp Harry?
Like a lot on here frightened to bet on him in case he doesn’t show again..
Reply
It seems to be from horses mouth,Dave Mitchell also suggests backing a horse today and investing winnings on parsons @ 40s
#363
March 21st, 2009 12:36
Hi
Think I might have a small bet now. Still not too much until nearer day.
That’s the link I presume Harry is referring to
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/racing/2009/03/winner-machine-hobbs-plays-his.html
Ells
1
#364
March 21st, 2009 12:44
Cheers Lough.
If my memory serves me right, The 5 Day Declaration Stage on 30th – that’s when the final 40 are confirmed and I think 3 horses are named as official spares/next in line – is that right?
Just wondering, as like many of you, that will be the day when any of my horses that didn’t make cut, get refunded
Can someone confirm that the 40 and the cpl spares are announced on the 30th..
#365
March 21st, 2009 12:46
Also on searching for any news I found this.
McManus has six horses still entered in this year’s National and a decision as to which will carry McCoy will be left until nearer the time. Many feel the decision is a foregone conclusion, as Butler’s Cabin is by far the shortest in the betting at 12-1, but the jockey has an open mind.
“I haven’t spoken to JP about it yet and you have to look at all the pros and cons. King Johns Castle was second last year, and you’d have to think about L’Ami as well.”
In last year’s National, an early fall from L’Ami ended the career of Mick Fitzgerald, who suffered spinal injuries. McCoy, however, seems impervious to such an ill omen. “Fitzy’s one of my best friends, but what happened last year doesn’t make me think, I’m not riding L’Ami. If L’Ami’s the one, then L’Ami’s the one.”
Don’t know whether McCoy being on board would be a good thing or not lol. He’s finished the GN with him before tho and will know tactics as how to ride him this year based on that run. Still think he will take BC tho. Just an interesting quote, and the fact he mentions him in detail reinforces my belief that this horse has a chance.
Ells
1
#366
March 21st, 2009 12:52
I know we’d mentioned this on site earlier, but here is the full info on Snoops and Nozic withdrawals.
That’ll have Kilbeggan in and prob Character, with the well thought of on this site, Brooklyn Brownie, prob next and chomping at bit.
‘WEIGHTS for the John Smith’s Grand National on April 4 will rise by a further 3lb after current 11st 10lb top weight Snoopy Loopy was confirmed a non-runner on Friday and Paul Nicholls announced that Nozic, next in the handicap on 11st 8lb, is also doubtful.
Peter Bowen, Snoopy Loopy’s trainer, said his 11-year-old will run instead in the Totesport Bowlat Aintree, leaving Nozic as the new top weight.
But Nicholls revealed that burden would rule out his 66-1 outsider from the £900,000 chase, saying: “If Nozic ends up with top weight, he’d be a doubtful runner.”
Should Nozic, who also holds entries in the Topham Chase at Aintree and the Scottish National later in the year, not run Cloudy Lane, one of the joint-favourites for last year’s race, could end up at the head of the list.’
#367
March 21st, 2009 13:49
Did anyone see the full-page GN analysis in the latest Weekender?
‘Systems analyst’ Nick Mordin applied 13 golden rules to the 128 remaining entries (written some days ago) and came up with a shortlist of 12 horses:
1 – Hear The Echo.
T2 – Chelsea Harbour, Himalayan Trail, King Johns Castle, Silver Birch.
T6 – Mattock Ranger, Miko de Beauchene, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Snowy Morning and State of Play.
While urging punters to cash in on the 20s available for Hear the Echo, he claims 8 out of the last 11 GN winners could have been identified from using his system.
Curiously Mordin penalises any horse that has won more than once in their last six runs and equally rewards any horse that has taken part in a hurdles race this season – regardless of its finishing position.
His list of 12 next best runners features Black Apalachi, Butler’s Cabin, Cornish Sett, Fleet Street, Flintoff, Hot Weld, Idle Talk, Lysander, Ollie Magern, Preists Leap, Southern Vic…….oh, and Rambling Minster.
Could it be that on April 4 we will be scratching our heads and wondering how we got it so wrong and how this guy got it so right? I think not.
P.S. Is someone now going to ask me to type up details of the 13 ‘golden rules’ he applied? Let me have a cup of tea first…eh?
#368
March 21st, 2009 15:00
haha firstly isnt mouse seriously considering pulling HTE?? in favour of running only WOA and secondly is HTE now not carrying a small bungalow on his back for 4 miles???
#369
March 21st, 2009 15:06
Nick Mordin’s 13 ‘golden rules’:
1, Award 5 points to entries who raced off a handicap mark of at least 137 that season (including in this race).
2, 5 points if they had previously reached the first three in a chase with at least 13 runners.
3, 5 points if they had won over at least 3m.
4, Another 5 points if they’ve won over 3m3f+ or reached the first three in one of the big five Nationals (Aintree, Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Midlands).
5, 5 points if they did not race as a novice chase in the previous season.
6, 5 points if they had completed the course in a field of 18 or more on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the past decade.
7, 5 points if they are set to carry less than 11st 2lb.
8, 5 points if they ran over hurdles this season.
9, 5 points if they’ve won no more than once in their last six runs.
10, 5 points if they are NOT French bred.
11, 5 points if they’ve earned a Racing Post handicap rating higher than 145.
12, 5 points if they haven’t worn blinkers or visor this season.
13, 5 points if they’ve had 14 or fewer starts over fences.
He awarded Hear the Echo 65 points, the next batch 60, Mattock Ranger & Co 55 points and his 12 ‘next best’ with 50 points each.
Ten of the last 11 GN winners, he claims, have racked up 50 points or more on his ratings system. Therefore his 24-horse hitlist for the 2009 Grand National may have a 91% chance of containing the name of the winner!
I suppose the most interesting aspect of his analysis is that he reckons this year’s winner is likely to be Irish. Please not. I generally don’t trust the Irish horses to run to form or to comply with trends. There’s been rogue aspects to a few of our Irish winners recently, but that’s perhaps for another discussion.
At least our Grand National expert Nick Mordin is honest enough to admit that one of his systems for Cheltenham led him to striking a line through Kauto Star!! Whoops!
#370
March 21st, 2009 15:27
Stumbled across this blog this is how i narrow down the winner.
previous national winners
3 1 8 5 7 4 12 0.56 12 14 20
4 4 5 6 9 8 15 0.59 13 15 20
5 6 1 9 5 11 14 0.85 12 16 15
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18
5 2 3 7 7 7 14 0.63 10 12 17
4 3 10 2 10 7 12 0.66 17 15 22
4 2 4 8 4 6 12 0.70 10 14 16
0 6 3 9 7 6 16 0.35 9 18 19
7 2 2 4 10 9 14 0.69 11 8 16
4 2 6 6 7 6 13 0.62 12 14 19
3 1 4 8 8 4 16 0.39 8 13 20
1 4 5 9 8 5 17 0.37 10 18 22
4 3 10 4 7 7 11 0.75 17 17 21
4 4 4 8 6 8 14 0.67 12 16 18
This year’s fancy’s
2 4 5 12 4 6 16 0.52 11 21 21 state of pla
4 3 2 14 3 7 17 0.59 9 19 19 rambo
5 7 5 6 2 12 8 1.47 17 18 13 darkness
5 8 1 4 8 13 12 0.90 14 13 13 c sett
6 3 4 7 7 9 14 0.76 13 14 18 p legacy
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18 k blade
6 6 5 6 6 12 12 1 17 17 17 c building
3 6 4 8 6 9 14 0.67 13 18 18 butlers ca
1 9 5 10 3 10 13 0.76 15 24 18 s vic
This is not the dodage index it is based on the female side of the pedigree and previous national winners show strong patterns.
summing up darness c sett char build and s vic
can’t and won’t win quote me on this after race.
state of play and rambo would have more classic points than the last 17 winner’s.
on these figures i like butlers cabin and kil blade.
if there are any other horses you would like me to profile let me know.
#371
March 21st, 2009 16:02
well if you look at those and leave out the names of those who carry over 11.2 you get:
silver birch
mattock ranger
Miko de Beauchene
mon mome
parsons legacy
reveillez
state of play
#372
March 21st, 2009 16:21
i think it would be a good idea if we could come up with our own rules and ignore some of feeble ones such as blinkers + hurdles. i also some would need to be worth 10 points such as an OR Between 036 and 144 – so i will start with that + obviously add 10 points for the obvious one of a winner of 3 mile race.
Can you add your own thoughts, suggestions and we will finally end up with the realistiic list which will hopefully incude the winner.
#373
March 21st, 2009 16:41
Not that its going to make much different but just thought I’d report. Both Kelami and Ice Tea ran shockers in C2 3m race at Bangor just now. Pretty sure both were PU.
Ells
1
#374
March 21st, 2009 17:02
He sounds a good tipster this guy….. a hit list of 24 horses i am sure if i told you my 24 against the field then i would get the winner also…..i am happy with my 2 against the field at this stage
#375
March 21st, 2009 17:22
Hello chaps. Here is my top 6…
1. Rambo 6
2. Kilbeggan Blade 5
3. Character Building 4
4. Butlers Cabin 3
5. Comply or Die 2
6. Big Fella Thanks 1
#376
March 21st, 2009 18:18
I’ll give you some help with this table Showlad!
Update table after DomiDarkos rankings :
Rambling Minster 158
Character Building 85
State Of Play 72
Darkness 45
Butler’s Cabin 39
Southern Vic 31
Kilbeggan Blade 33
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Brooklyn Brownie 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 6
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
Big Fella Thanks – 1
Ells
1
#377
March 21st, 2009 20:59
Good one Lough
#378
March 21st, 2009 21:18
I think you have all just woke up and had a smell of the coffee!!I read the article about the 13 golden rules to finding the national winner as my work mate said he had backed hear the echo because of this.He asked his bro to put the bet on the next day at 20/1 and the price had gone and that is why all our talking up of rambo’s chances has affected its current price.We can affect the price of any horse in the race if enough of us agree about its chances on this blog.Still its not all bad as will be able to lay of some of my 40’s at 10’s on betfair and still have a 30/1 winner for no bet.Oh and for anyone reading that doesn’t comment RAMBO is a racing certainty!!!!!!!!!!
#379
March 21st, 2009 21:26
Hi,I call this site marmite! I love it, she hates it.
Anyway my top 6 (with thanks to all of the regulars input on here)
Rambo 6
S.O.P 5
Kilbeggan Blade 4
Brooklyn Brownie 3
Darkness 2
C.O.D 1 (CANT TURN MY BACK ON A PREVIOUS WINNER)
NEW TOTALS
Rambling Minster 164
Character Building 85
State Of Play 77
Darkness 47
Butler’s Cabin 39
Kilbeggan Blade 37
Southern Vic 31
Brooklyn Brownie 22
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 7
Hot Weld 3
My Will 3
Offshore Account 3
Big Fella Thanks – 1
#380
March 21st, 2009 22:07
Rambling Minster and Character Building wouldn’t win the National between them even if they were the only two running. Forget all your stats and points systems, you’re all starting to belive your own communal destiny. It comes as no surprise to me that Hot Weld was schooling at Aintree the other day. Anyone who backed Your Special at 40/1 a few years ago at Cheltenham (with no previous form) know that some yards are quiet about things. And that’s the way these things happen. Ferdy has won enough Nationals to know how to train one for the day…..
#381
March 22nd, 2009 10:53
Who invited that bloke “Rambling Minster and Character Building wouldn’t win the National between them even if they were the only two running”
The stats have led me to the winner for the past 4 years, so i see no reason for it to change again!
#382
March 22nd, 2009 11:06
“REDRUM says:
March 21, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Stumbled across this blog this is how i narrow down the winner.
previous national winners
3 1 8 5 7 4 12 0.56 12 14 20
4 4 5 6 9 8 15 0.59 13 15 20
5 6 1 9 5 11 14 0.85 12 16 15
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18
5 2 3 7 7 7 14 0.63 10 12 17
4 3 10 2 10 7 12 0.66 17 15 22
4 2 4 8 4 6 12 0.70 10 14 16
0 6 3 9 7 6 16 0.35 9 18 19
7 2 2 4 10 9 14 0.69 11 8 16
4 2 6 6 7 6 13 0.62 12 14 19
3 1 4 8 8 4 16 0.39 8 13 20
1 4 5 9 8 5 17 0.37 10 18 22
4 3 10 4 7 7 11 0.75 17 17 21
4 4 4 8 6 8 14 0.67 12 16 18
This year’s fancy’s
2 4 5 12 4 6 16 0.52 11 21 21 state of pla
4 3 2 14 3 7 17 0.59 9 19 19 rambo
5 7 5 6 2 12 8 1.47 17 18 13 darkness
5 8 1 4 8 13 12 0.90 14 13 13 c sett
6 3 4 7 7 9 14 0.76 13 14 18 p legacy
6 1 7 7 4 7 11 0.91 14 15 18 k blade
6 6 5 6 6 12 12 1 17 17 17 c building
3 6 4 8 6 9 14 0.67 13 18 18 butlers ca
1 9 5 10 3 10 13 0.76 15 24 18 s vic
This is not the dodage index it is based on the female side of the pedigree and previous national winners show strong patterns.
summing up darness c sett char build and s vic
can’t and won’t win quote me on this after race.
state of play and rambo would have more classic points than the last 17 winner’s.
on these figures i like butlers cabin and kil blade.
if there are any other horses you would like me to profile let me know.”
I think it would help if you explained what all these numbers mean!
#383
March 22nd, 2009 11:10
Hi TC,Don’t worry about TTM just lay Hot Weld and sit back and draw your money.We all can’t agree on the nat winner as RAMBO would go off at odds on!!!Bring it on!!
#384
March 22nd, 2009 11:11
Guys,
I like to allow the posts on here to flow without too much intervention but I’m becoming concerned at a few of the posts we’ve had in the last few days and I would ask you all to think about the tone and content of your posts as we run up to the big race.
I’ve deleted one post where a journalist was labelled “an idiot” for his views – we simply can’t have stuff like that on here. People are entitled to their opinions but we have to be very careful with regards to lible laws etc so I would ask that you continue with the reasoned arguments but try not to get too emotive.
Also, I’m concerned about comments such as:
RAMBO is a racing certainty
Rambling Minster and Character Building wouldn’t win the National between them even if they were the only two running
I’ve left these comments on the site for the time being but they aren’t the kind of comments we want to encourage.
This is the Grand National we are talking about and whilst we are encouraging people to be confident about their selections and to tell us the reasons why they are confident you cannot be “a racing certainty” in any race let alone the Grand National. This is a race over 4 and a half miles with a huge field and enormous fences – please be realistic. The majority of us using this site may be able to discern what is meant by these comments but we are also trying to appeal to the novice punter, the once a year Grand National gambler and we don’t want to suggest to them that it is simply a case of putting your money on Rambo and then waiting to get paid out.
Conversely, we don’t want the type of negativity displayed in the second comment either – you cannot be 100% sure that those two horses won’t be involved in the finish of the National, you may not fancy them and please tell us why not but please keep the language objective.
We are immensely appreciative of the amount of work put in by our contributors – I’m just asking that new people to the site would continue to be impressed by the reasoned arguments that have been a feature of the site since we first went on line.
Thanks a lot
Admin
#385
March 22nd, 2009 11:35
re: The Turf Mould – Hot Weld and stablemate Nine de Sivola were at Aintree this week for a photocall to coincide with a lunch thrown by sponsors John Smith’s for members of the media covering the event. To describe it as ’schooling’ is pushing it. Gentle workout up and down the home strait more like.
He may have sniffed a spruce fence or two, but he didn’t jump any.
A couple of horses are wheeled out each year for the same event – usually from Northern stables such as Ferdy Murphy’s in North Yorkshire. For instance, Carrie and Richard Ford brought along Forest Gunner in 2005 from their Cheshire stables.
It gives the press an opportunity to take a few snaps of horses cantering past the grandstands while journalists interview trainers, etc. Ferdy is a regular at the event along with Donald McCain.
It’s a way of creating a news angle for the assembled journalists and giving the publicity a lift. Read nothing into it.
But, Turf Mould, if you believe Hold Weld will win the GN 2009 and you’ve backed up your belief with hard cash, good luck to you. I don’t.
#386
March 22nd, 2009 11:39
My bad admin. Apologies for the ‘idiot’ comment. Wouldn’t do it at anybody on this site, was merely at a tipster making people pay for his tips when in my opinion and most others on here he is going the total wrong way about it. But I understand your concern
Ells
1
#387
March 22nd, 2009 12:46
I’d just like to add that i found this website last year and have enjoyed the banter and analysis and the characters posting on it ever since.
This is the best website on the net and i hope that it continues for many years to come.
Thanks to All contributers and lets keep this site Fun !!!
Above all lets pool our knowledge and hopefully have the winner come April 4th.
Cheers Mike
#388
March 22nd, 2009 13:26
now that graham lee has been declared the jockey for killebeggan blade i feel more than ever he will be a very strong candidate for the frame.possibly 3rd behind rambling and sop.
#389
March 22nd, 2009 13:58
Has anyone bothered to do the winner predictor on here, every time i do it i cannot place State of Play, so i thought i’d look into him in a bit more detail, i know he runs best fresh but the last horse to be placed with a lay off as close to his was Kingsmark in 2002, who hadn’t raced for 111 days (the next being Philson Run in 2007 with 55 days), thats as far back as i bothered to research, it seems horses with long lay offs don’t get placed that often, with his weight rising as well. Most horses that have been placed in recent history have recent within 4-5 weeks of the GN. I’m beginning to go off him NOW and think Kilbeggan may be worth a place in top four
#390
March 22nd, 2009 14:57
Somebody put up a post on horses who are well in compared to there current ratings but i can’t seem to find it. Could they please post it again. Was just reading how cod was 11ib better of than his rating after the eider. So it would be interesting to know which are horses are better off if in the weights with their current rating.
Thanks in advance
#391
March 22nd, 2009 15:03
agreed tc – the winner predictor tool is very informative and narrows it down using the main trends to – character building,rambling minster,darkness ,kilbeggan blade , southern vic and lami
#392
March 22nd, 2009 15:57
Gammers Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 11:17 AM
Way, way back on the old thread I posted about horses who were ‘well in’ at the weights and those who had been clobbered by the handicapper. Given that most have had their final prep run by now, I thought it might be useful to update the current position based on the new ORs from yesterday vs GN OR:
Horses well in:
Darkness 8 lbs
My Will 8 lbs
Rambling Minster 6 lbs
Character Building 5 lbs
Roll Along 5 lbs
Snoopy Loopy 4 lbs
Irish Invader 2 lbs
Offshore Account 2 lbs
Southern Vic 1 lb
Big Fella Thanks 1 lb
Horses clobbered:
Butlers Cabin 13 lbs
Chelsea HArbour 8 lbs
Hear The Echo 8 lbs
Priests Leap 7 lbs
Stan 6 lbs
Hot Weld 6 lbs
Tumbling Dice 6 lbs
Reveillez 4 lbs
Golden Flight 4 lbs
L’ami 4 lbs
Horses carrying between 1-3 lbs more than current mark; Snowy Morning, Ollie Magern, Comply or Die, Mon Mome, Hobbs Hill, Fundamentalist, Battlecry, Fleet Street, Can’t Buy Time, Always Waining, Himalayan Trail.
Please Note: This analysis only covers the top 47 horses in the revised list of 88.
That was the list Johnny. I’ve used this too. Nice work Gammers.
Ells
1
#393
March 22nd, 2009 16:14
“TC says:
March 22, 2009 at 1:58 PM
Has anyone bothered to do the winner predictor on here, every time i do it i cannot place State of Play, so i thought i’d look into him in a bit more detail, i know he runs best fresh but the last horse to be placed with a lay off as close to his was Kingsmark in 2002, who hadn’t raced for 111 days (the next being Philson Run in 2007 with 55 days), thats as far back as i bothered to research, it seems horses with long lay offs don’t get placed that often,”
Last ten years:
Mely Moss, 2000 (2nd) – over 300 days
Kingsmark, 2002 (4th) – over 100 days
Clan Royal, 2004 (2nd & unlucky loser) – over 100 days
#394
March 22nd, 2009 16:23
So that’s 3 horses in the last ten years that have been placed after more than 99 days off the track
During that period 30 horses have run in the race without a run in the previous 99 days
That’s a 1 in 10 conversion rate, which is no different to the the number of places up for grabs (4) divided by the number of runners (40 in the average year)
But the last 10 winners had all run within 42 days of the race
#395
March 22nd, 2009 16:32
hi guys, been reading this thread with interest, some great info posted which is very much appreciated! just a quick question regarding betfair – on the GN NTF market i’m guessing that NTF means not to finish?
#396
March 22nd, 2009 17:02
Excellent research Pablo. So it would appear what is against State of Play is the weight rather than the days off the track.
#397
March 22nd, 2009 17:34
Interesting comment about days since last run. But days since last run is a stronger trend than weight carried. Only one horse since 1960, (Specify 71, 12 weeks) has won the GN who has not raced within 8 weeks of the race while in the same time there has been eight winners who have carried 11 stone or more to victory. The point has been made time and time again about lots of different horses who have won 3 miles chases fresh but try and find a winner of 4 mile chase who hasn’t ran for more than, say, 60 days.
#398
March 22nd, 2009 18:08
Three horses i haven’t backed are My Will , killbeggan Blade and Southern Vic. Would be interested in comments on these three horses, to complete my Grand National selections. Keep reading how This has been My Wills target all season. can he win ?
#399
March 22nd, 2009 18:18
haha exactly the same as me Superswinger. Altho my unbacked list also contains Butlers Cabin. For my 2 cents I would say My Will is too high and ran a tiring race at Cheltenham. Kilbeggan Blade I fear just won’t be good enough, but could place. And Southern Vic does worry me only slightly and I do plan to have a little saver just to cover my stake. But if you watch him at the end of his last run – all out, pretty much walks over the line.
Ells
1
#400
March 22nd, 2009 18:24
All Kilbeggan Blade’s best form on right handed tracks as well.
#401
March 22nd, 2009 18:25
I thought it would be great having 1 or two outstanding horses in the field, but then you find yourself putting cover bets on half a dozen more because it seems too easy to only have one or two against the field. Clutching at straws to cover my backside i think !!!
need to keep the faith and stop betting on half chances/not quite fit the stats horses !!!
#402
March 22nd, 2009 18:30
KB is the one that concerns me as its name seems to be getting chucked around alot not just here?? i have a small bet on him main ones being
rambo , character building , darkness and butlers cabin (backed early on)
im sure in the next two weeks fear will get the better of me and an extra few quid will go his way.
#403
March 22nd, 2009 18:34
bet365 now non runner no bet on the grand national !!
#404
March 22nd, 2009 18:47
Thanks for putting that up Superswinger. Time for some risk-free topping up!!!
#405
March 22nd, 2009 18:52
Thanks for putting that up Superswinger. Time for some risk-free topping up!!!
that extra s you put in my name completely changes the context The Stayer, hope the wifes not reading this lol.
#406
March 22nd, 2009 19:26
Ha Ha. Just something i’d heard on the grapevine mate.
#407
March 22nd, 2009 20:01
Just been watching replays of Rambling Minsters races.
The Horse oozes class.
Does anyone know where to watch these races for free getting fed up of paying 20p a time on racing post.
#408
March 22nd, 2009 20:05
TOM GEORGE has booked Graham Lee to ride Kilbeggan Blade in the Grand National. Lee tasted National success on Amberleigh House in 2004 and George said:”The National has always been the plan since he won at Sandown in December,” said George.”He runs best over fences when he is fresh on the back of a hurdle run. He’s a great jumper and a run over hurdles just gets him fresh and buzzed up for it. Graham Lee will ride him and he has won the race before and knows his way around there.”
#409
March 22nd, 2009 20:05
For what its worth my imput-
rambo 6 (enough said)
my will 5 (my class horse)
killy blade 4 (dark horse)
character building 3 (wife,s horse,got winner last 2 years)
chelsea harbour 2 (beer goggles)
offshore account 1 (outsider)
NEW TOTALS
Rambling Minster 170
Character Building 88
State Of Play 77
Darkness 47
Butler’s Cabin 39
Kilbeggan Blade 41
Southern Vic 31
Brooklyn Brownie 22
Cornish Sett 20
Parsons Legacy 19
Himalayan Trail 12
L’Ami 9
Black Apalachi 8
Irish Invader 8
Comply Or Die 7
Hot Weld 3
My Will 8
Offshore Account 4
chelsae harbour 2
Big Fella Thanks -1
Still reckon too many are writing off MY WILL too soon,was not even 100% for the gold cup.Ideal result for me would be rambo from my will. I really need to put my wife in her place.
#410
March 22nd, 2009 20:13
its the weight for my will now if snoopy loopy and nozic drop out plus he’s french !!!
2 strikes against it
#411
March 22nd, 2009 20:35
Hi Admin,Im very sorry for my message on the blog saying that RAMBO is a cert as it was meant as a joke and im sure that most people that read my full message would have realised this.Im deeply sorry but ‘I WIll Be BACk’ Keep up the good work ADMIN.
#412
March 22nd, 2009 20:56
Hi all. Great blog many thanks to all for all hard work. I justwonder about excluding a horse because it has previously completed in the race (but not if it has fallen). Im thinking here of cornish sett.Last year i believe he would not have fitted stats as no top 5 hennessy etc. but now he does apart from having finished in last years race(when he didnt fit stats). Some would say hes had his chance but I think theres little doubt that hes much improved this season and it would seem rash to discount him just for being a better horse than he was last year.
#413
March 22nd, 2009 21:40
I find this all a little bit strange…..
Wacky calls his horse that he fancies a dead cert and admin pulls him over the coals for it, i for one am not offended in the slighest, dead cert is a racing term.
We are all over 18 we have our own opinions on this race and the fact that Wacky makes his known very strongly is fine in my book.
If a blogger calls the horse that he fancies a dead cert would it make me believe him and go and put my house on it ….er…well know i have been betting many years like us all and i don’t think this would be the case with anyone.
Wacky has contributed to this thread and many others not only this year but last year also and is a lively contributor and has made the French debate and others very funny and humorous…..
I find it very sad that he feels the need to apologise for his comment which i feel is no way offensive or misleading either way to anyone of us.
We are adults here and comments like dead cert are not going to make anyone go and bet on a horse based on the comment…..in a round about way we have all been saying what a good thing Rambo is just look at the poll we have all been adding our fancies too Rambo has not been out the 1st 2 either 5 or 6 points every time he is so far ahead in the poll that we have all made him look a dead cert, should we all apologise?
Don’t want to hark on about it but it is folk like Wacky,systems,pablo,stephen and all the others that are on the endless list that make this forum and this site what it is and i just think it is plain wrong for such a trivial thing to have even been brought up.
If anyone was offended or misled by Wackys comment and placed money on his dead cert then he i am sure will refund all losing bets after the race
#414
March 22nd, 2009 21:54
Hopefully there won’t be any refunded bets needs when Rambo Romps Home
I agree with your point Puzzled but I can understand admins reason for bringing it up. Don’t think they were intending to ‘tell anybody off’ or expecting apologies lol. Its fine for us, we all know about racing and we know Wacky. But for novice punters using this site, phrases like that might mislead them into backing a horse they wouldn’t otherwise back (I think this is the point admin are trying to make).
Lets keep it all friendly guys
Thanks admin for having this site and providing the environment for such discussion. And thanks bloggers for making it a lively environment.
Getting a little nervous now. Really hope Rambo does the business.
Ells
1
#415
March 22nd, 2009 22:29
MY WILL has now dropped to 8s with ladbrokes and more important has has shortened to 4/7 with skybet for ruby walsh to ride.I would be thrilled if he was to ride because he has gotta be worth that extra few pounds that he is over that 11st mark.
#416
March 22nd, 2009 22:34
pablo to try and explain the figures i would have to write a book.
All i can say is that one of the final qualifiers in the last 20 years have won the race.
The stats are based on breeding 1900 and before.
I no it sounds crazy but it does narrow down the field.
This years qualifiers best chance top to bottom are
kilbeggan blade
brooklyn brownie
butlers cabin
Himalayan trail
rambling minster also qualifies but you would have to go back 17 years for a winner to have his profile.
#417
March 22nd, 2009 22:41
Are those the only 5 qualifiers?
Why don’t Comply Or Die and Silver Birch qualify as previous winners of the race?
#418
March 22nd, 2009 22:53
REDRUM – where did you get those numbers from, i’d love to have a crack at working it out. More than happy that Rambo has the same profile as Party Politics
Where did previous winners come on that
#419
March 22nd, 2009 23:02
Rambo would have an excellent chance in a two horse race although I wouldn’t agree he’d be a dead cert, though.
To give due credit to Admin, the site is deserving of critical and useful debate, so although my earlier comments were a little ‘tongue in cheek,’ they were designed to challenge what seems to have become a done deal.
The stistical analysis carried out is very commendable and I am genuinely impressed with the thought processes and dedication. The potential risk with it becoming the key focus is that a number of factors have recently altered the importance of longer term statistics and these main factors are as follows.
1 The modification of fences to reduce falls.
2 The increase in prize money way above the Gold Cup prize
3 The current era of such great Gold Cup horses.
4 The “concertinaring” of the weights over the past three years to encourage class horses to run.
5 The aim for ground on the easy side of good and no firmer.
I should imagine that if an owner and/or trainer has a horse that is just short on the class required to reach Gold Cup level, they are likley to aim that horses entire career towards a shot at the National, now that the factors as aforementioned encourage their participation.
Given this approach, horses like Darkness and Offshore Account might have a great deal up their sleeve, despite their coming back from injuries. Form is important, but class and unexposure are even greater weapons. Comply or Die is a classic example of this.
Also, I think most of us would not give Rambo nor CB much of a chance against a very fit War of Attrition, given the stone or so difference in weight, if the race was over three miles two. If CB couldn’t get near Denman in the Hennessy when 2 stone lighter on soft ground, it brings WofA into the picture if he can stay and he gets good ground.
As for Hot Weld, well he’s not weighted much differently to Rambo on HW’s Scottish National win. He’s a year younger and may have improved. If Ferdy Murphy runs him, he would have a chance.
I would welcome people’s thoughts….
#420
March 22nd, 2009 23:08
I quite like Kilbeggan Blade as a horse and he does meet a lot of stats, but a few things worry me with regards to the National.
- All bar one of his 8 career wins had the word “soft” in the going description. His one win on good ground was a poor novice hurdle race.
- Quite possibly related to this is the fact that all bar one of his 8 wins have come in the months October, November, December and January. His best form seems to be in the winter when there is juice in the ground. He’s never won a race in March or April and the race he won in May was on soft ground.
- He has been pulled up in all three of the Class 1 races that he is contested.
Unless the ground comes up with some serious give in it, I just don’t think he will be quite good enough.
#421
March 22nd, 2009 23:22
The Turf Mould,
Interesting comments. I doubt any of us sees Rambo winning as “a done deal”. Even previous National winners can come to grief over those fences (Hallo Dandy and Corbiere for example) and horses can be brought down or carried-out by loose horses. But even if you push the stats aside he does seem appear to be a very likely winner of the race. He jumps well, has won over 4m, appears to be in the form of is life and is 6lbs well-in as a result. He goes there with a fighting chance. Instead of posting things like “he would have a great chance in a two horse race”, it would be more useful to state why you think he can’t win, or why other horses are preferred – we might all learn something that way.
With regards to Hot Weld, looks like Graham Lee has passed the horse over and he could well be heading to Ayr instead of Aintree. He’s a decent horse but hasn’t really showed much on his two comeback starts – PU, PU. The comments in running from those races highlight jumping errors and him not travelling well. He can’t be backed with any confidence.
Further up we debated Darkness. Again, another decent horse and some people are quite keen on him. Some of us weren’t too keen given his very poor shows in big fields and he also has the tendancy to hit one, though to his credit he’s never fallen.
Hope this helps.
#422
March 22nd, 2009 23:40
War Of Attrition is a Gold Cup winner. Fair play to him. I don’t think RM or CB could win a Gold Cup. But the two races are totally different. The National is a stamina test and plenty of classy horses have tried to win it and failed. I personally believe that RM and CB are horses that have more going for them in this race than an ex Gold Cup winner coming back from injury with more weight and being unproven at the distance. Run a race over 3m 2f at Cheltenham and yes, WOA would more than likely be the pick. Run a race over 4m 4f at Aintree and I’d go for RM and CB every time.
And with regards Hot Weld he is a hard one to make a judgement on. Based on his best form he obviously comes into it. But coming back after such a long lay off with two pulled up performances isn’t the ideal prep for a National. Systemsman put up the useful stat about a horse having two or more no finishes next to his name in the season of the National is a no go. You have to take an awful lot on faith with him and from my point of view I cannot put either of these horses above two bang on form proven stayers on low weights.
Hence why I assume the bookies rate CB and RM ahead of WOA and HW.
#423
March 22nd, 2009 23:48
“1 The modification of fences to reduce falls.
2 The increase in prize money way above the Gold Cup prize
3 The current era of such great Gold Cup horses.
4 The “concertinaring” of the weights over the past three years to encourage class horses to run.
5 The aim for ground on the easy side of good and no firmer.”
These all have some logic to them but can they be proved?
Last 10 years = 391 runners of which 132 finishers (34%)
Runners with OR of 150+ over last 10 years = 47 runners of which 15 finishers = 32%
Runners with OR of 150+ over last 3 years = 20 runners of which 5 finished = 25% (Hedgehunter came second, no other placed runners)
Would not suggest that horses are finding the National easier or that so-called class horses are doing better
The record of staying chasers carrying >11 stone at GN is still pretty dire