The Summer National at Uttoxeter is an oasis for jumps fans in a sea of flat racing and, more importantly for us, it is an early indication of some of the horses that might end up at Aintree if not this year then certainly at some point in the future.

Previous winners in the Grand National

Previous winners of the Summer National Mckelvey, Take The Stand and Jurancon have all been well fancied for the Grand National itself predominantly as they had proved their stamina in this race. As we all know Mckelvey ran a huge race in 2007 with injury possibly preventing him for getting up to beat Silver Birch.

So, let’s look at the previous winners at Uttoxeter:

2000 Berlin Blue OR110 7-10-5 11/2 13 ran 26k - value of race

2002 Stormez OR133 5-11-8 11/2 14 ran 32k

2003 Jurancon OR122 6-10-10 9/1 13 ran 35k

2004 Take The Stand OR138 8-11-12 14/1 16 ran 44k

2005 Rheindross OR117 10-10-3 25/1 16 ran 44k

2006 Mckelvey OR130 7-10-10 11/2 15 ran 45k

2007 Kock De La Vesvre OR123 9-10-9 5/1J 11ran 40k

Who will win at Uttoxeter in 2008?

With only seven years to go on we need to be a bit creative with our interpretation of any prospective trends so I will suggest that for various reasons the wins of Berlin Blue and Take The Stand could be left out of the equation when considering the qualities required for the winner in 2008.

The win of Berlin Blue in 2000 was when the race was worth much less than its value today and in the intervening years and is probably not a true reflection of the quality of horse that runs in the race. Take The Stand’s win off 138 and with 11st 12lb was probably a bit of a freak. Given that he ended up running second in the Gold Cup he was entitled to win even with the big weight but as a rule I would be doubtful about big weights in marathon chases. If we do leave these horses out of the equation then the remaining four winners have had an official rating of between 117 and 133.

This only really gets rid of the top four in the weights but with no horse winning older than 10 years old we could also eliminate Philson Run, Chabrimal Minster, Harlov and Take The Stand.

Our Selection

So from an original 16 we have 8 left to consider and out of those the one that interests me the most is Mr Ed. I have long thought that this former good flat horse is capable of winning a decentish handicap over fences but the main requirement for him appears to be good to firm ground and he has received these underfoot conditions very rarely in his career over fences. He has tons of weight in hand on better fancied horses such as Forty Acers and Rackalackey from previous defeats where they have since gone up in the weights and whilst he may appear the least fancied of the Bowen quartet I think he looks a nice each way bet.

Let us know who you fancy and we will come back on after the race and have a look at it from an Aintree perspective as well as discuss where the money went!

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 7 Comments »

In the latest of our looks at the early betting for the 2009 Grand National I thought we’d change the format slightly and rather than work through the remaining horses in the betting, we would highlight a few of the remaining interesting runners or suggestions from other posts.

In one of the earlier posts Pav asks about Hot Weld and Kings Advocate so let’s take a look at those:

Hot Weld: One of the ante post favourites for last years race until ruled out in January with a haematoma on his leg. Trainer Ferdy Murphy reported at the time that the horse would be aimed at the National again in 2009.

Hot Weld certainly ticks all the right boxes for the National having won Cheltenham’s NH Chase, the Irish National and the BetFred Gold Cup but I just have reservations about horses coming back from injury and if they can reach the same level of form after being off for a year or more. Granted there are the exceptions (Comply Or Die for one) but in general I believe it is rare for horses to surpass their form levels after a stopping injury. Added to this is the amount of getting fit that Hot Weld seems to need.  In his last two full seasons of racing he needed three and then four races before showing any worthwhile form and I’m not sure that this trait will improve after an injury. Therefore we are unlikely to get an idea on his retained ability for some time and, as such, I would want to wait and see with Hot Weld and in all probability would give him a miss.

Kings Advocate: Similar comments apply to the Tom Taaffe trained 8 year old Kings Advocate as he hasn’t run since finishing 6th to Butlers Cabin in the 2007 Irish National. A horse of some promise he was sent off favourite that day and he ran well to finish 6 lengths behind the winner. I can’t find anything to say what has been wrong with him but he doesn’t have much experience over fences for a horse to be aimed at a Grand National (6 races over fences) but he does have a nice staying pedigree and if you can get a big price on the exchanges and he is a horse you like then he could spring a surprise. But, I’d want to see him fit and well and back on the track before making a decision.

Finally, one from fairly high up in the betting that has been attracting some interest in the betting, Old Benny.

Old Benny: I can see why this horse would appeal to a lot of people - trained by Alan King, might be ridden by Choc Thornton, a young horse, plenty of stamina and a mark in the low 140s but I have major doubts about his jumping as the race he won at Cheltenham was the first time I’d seen him jump ok in his outings over fences (which haven’t been many). I would think he would have to get more experience over larger obstacles and that would run the risk of increasing his handicap mark to a point where he would have too much weight? What does anyone else think? Do you fancy Old Benny’s chances at Aintree?

Let us know about him or any other horse you would like see discusssed.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 2 Comments »

Here is the second part of the initial look at the early prices for the 2009 Grand National. We’ve already had a quick scout through the following: Denman, Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin, Snowy Morning, Iris De Balme and Hear The Echo.

Next up is:

King John’s Castle. Arthur Moore’s house was considered a doubtful stayer in some quarters as he had mainly contested over much shorter distances during his short career over fences. These doubts were in some ways put to bed by the horse finishing a gallant second to Comply Or Die, giving the winner 2lb. Time may show that to be a very useful performance but I just felt that Paul Carberry coaxed every ounce of stamina from King’s John’s Castle and I doubt that he will be able to get any closer to winning as he will undoubtedly be carrying more weight next year.

Miko De Beauchene will undoubtedly have his supporters. However, I am concerned about his chances on a number of points. Firstly, he had a very, very hard season in 07/08 with gruelling victories at Chepstow and Haydock as well as three other runs and such a hard season may take some recovering from. Secondly, he ran off a mark of 153 in the Scottish National (when pulled up) which would have given him 11st 9lb in this year’s National. Anything like that sort of weight in 2009 would surely be too heavy a burden to carry?

He is also obviously French bred and this is a bone of contention with stats followers given the poor record of French bred horses in the National. I see the poor record of his compatriots but doubt that I would be put off by a lack of stamina in a Welsh National winner. Far more worrying to me would be the amount of weight he would be likely to carry.

Next in the betting in some places is Himalayan Trail. A very interesting potential contender from the Sue Smith yard, much would depend how he shapes in the early part of the season as he is relarively inexperienced for a horse campaigning over marathon distances. A winner of three of his five races to date over fences, including the four mile + Midlands Grand National, Himalayan Trail would need to gain some extra experience for me to be very interested in him but without wrecking his current handicap mark of 141.  If he were to jump well in a couple of decent three mile handicaps in the early part of the season I would defintely have him on my shortlist.

Finally for today is Gwanako. Paul Nicholls’ young chaser ran a fine race to win the Topham in April ‘08 at the tender age of five years old. That win pushes him up to 151 and a six year old winning the National of a mark in the 150’s would require a herculean effort. Also, his stamina seemed to be nearing the end of its tether in the Topham and he would appear to have too much against him at this point.

Do you agree or disagree? Give us your thoughts on the above or any of the horses in the early betting for the 2009 Grand National.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 1 Comment »

The dust has settled after the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown and the early market for the 2009 Grand National is starting to take shape with some National favourites and some new names for us all to ponder their suitability for the great race next April.

Over the next few days I’ll have a quick run through the runners in the betting and just outline my initial thoughts on them (plenty of time for trends analysis later on) and why not come back on and just let us all know what your initial feelings are about the prices for the 2009 race?

Denman heads the betting with a number of firms but connections have stated that 2010 is a more likely National target for the Gold Cup winner so it may be wise to exclude him from our early scan of the prices.

Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin and Snowy Morning come next in the betting at 20/1 and, for me, the only one that would have any appeal here would be Snowy Morning. Comply Or Die was a brilliant winner but will be punished severely by the handicapper and he has always been a rather fragile horse so any long term punts would be pretty hazardous. Butler’s Cabin looked to be going well when coming to grief at Bechers second time around but I didn’t like the look of him in some of his runs last year and I fear there may be more than a touch of temperament about him which may get worse. I wouldn’t want to be involved with him ante-post.

Snowy Morning really surprised me in the National as I thought he would struggle to get round. Bar his mistake at the last he performed really well for a young horse and with a programme mapped out for the National he could find the necessary improvement to offset any rise in the weights he may incur. 20/1 isn’t particularly generous but he must have a chance.

Iris De Balme wouldn’t interest me at all. I’m always very suspicious of the likelihood of horses who win from miles out of the handicap maintaining that level of form when they return to their true mark. I’d have to see more from him before I’d make him a serious National candidate.

Hear The Echo won the Irish National well and that race is one I like as a long term indicator for the National itself but I have big doubts about his jumping. He has already hit the deck four times in his eighteen starts over obstacles and that is too many in my book for a potential National winner. That said Fairyhouse is a really hard track to jump round so it may be that this area of his game is improving. I didn’t like his performance in the race before the Irish National when he looked to be travelling well and went out very quickly. He wouldn’t be carrying my money.

So that’s the first half dozen in the betting. Of those the only one of interest to me would be Snowy Morning and I’m not sure I would be tempted by the prices on offer. How about you?

Let us know your thoughts and check back in the next few days when we will be looking at the next six horses in the current betting.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 3 Comments »

The Scottish National 2008 will be the first in our series of races where we will open up a thread for all to discuss the the individual merits of the race itself and any potential bearing it may have on the 2009 Grand National

Previous Winners

A good place to start is to look at the basic details of the last ten previous winners:

Scottish National Winners/Age/Weight/SP/Official Rating

2007 Hot Weld 8-9-9 14/1 124

2006 Run For Paddy 10-10-2 33/1 135

2005 Joe’s Edge 8-10-0 (5oh) 20/1 132

2004 Grey Abbey 10-11-12 12/1 148

2003 Ryalux 10-10-5 15/2 140

2002 Take Control 8-10-6 20/1 140

2001 Gingembre 7-11-2 12/1 137

2000 Paris Pike 8-11-0 5/1JF 143

1999 Young Kenny 8-11-10 5/2F 140

1998 Baronet 8-10-0 (3oh) 7/1 133

Analysis

The victory of Hot Weld was something of a trend breaker last year in that he did not have a top five finish last time out and had a low official rating. If we look upon Hot Weld as a one off it leaves these basic requirements:

Aged 7-10 (10/10)
Official Rating 132-148 (9/10)
Finished in top 5 on last outing (9/10)

In addition no horse that has run in that seasons Grand National has gone on to win the Scottish National so it would appear we can discount any horse who lines up after a trip round the Grand National fences. We can also discount those horses with a poor jumping record as only 2001 winner Gingembre had a record that included more than two falls or unseats.

Stamina will also be a huge consideration and nine out of the last ten winners had demonstrated winning form over at least 3 miles.

So add in:

No more than two falls or unseats (9/10)
Stamina proven at three miles (9/10)

And it looks also safe to remove any horse following on from Aintree.By my reckoning this leaves a shortlist of:

Himalayan Trail
Old Benny
Royal County Star
Boychuk
Newbay Prop

The two that appeal to me most out of those are Midlands Grand National winner Himalayan Trail who would be aiming to complete the same double as Young Kenny and Philip Hobbs’ Boychuk. The former’s claims are more obvious but Boychuk’s recent run at Aintree could be misleading as I thought he was staying on again at the finish whereas the RP comment is ‘weakened after three out’.

Hobbs has obviously targeted this race in recent years with Parsons Legacy 3rd in 2007, Double Honour 4th in 2005 and Gunther McBride favourite for the race and booked for a place at least when falling in 2003. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boychuk puts in an improved performance in the Scottish National.

Are there any trends that you would add or take away from this list?

We will be looking at how the Scottish National has effected the Grand National over the years and how the 2008 may have a bearing on the Aintree race for 2009 in the days to come. Keep an eye out for those posts and keep us updated on your ideas on the Scottish National.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 58 Comments »

Hi everyone and thanks again for all your comments and input over the last few months.

We’ve been chatting behind the scenes here at Grand National Blog and we’ve decided that we will have an analysis page on all the races we think that might have some relevance to future Grand Nationals, starting with the Scottish National on the 19th April. I’ll start a page up with the basic trends in the next couple of days and we can start cracking away at that race as soon as possible, although I see some of you have beaten me to it!
A number of people have mentioned the possibility of analyzing the Derby, Leger, Guineas etc but, at the moment, we are focusing primarily on races that have a bearing on the Grand National and, as such, we won’t be focusing on any flat races.
There is a flourishing horseracing forum on the OLBG site (see link below) and this would be a good place to start any trend based discussion on the Flat Classics.

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/

We will be looking to build up a list of races to focus on throughout the season that has a bearing on the National such as The Becher Chase, Irish National, William Hill Handicap, Eider Chase (Now that Comply Or Die has broken the bad record!), etc etc. Give us your thoughts on the races you would like to see included and we’ll come back with a list in the not too distant future.
Hope to see you all back as regular contributors throughout 2008 and into 2009.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 7 Comments »

Do you know who will win the 2009 Grand National?

Following a suggestion on one of the threads on this blog, we would like to let everyone know that we will be running a £100 tipster competition for the 2009 Grand National. Full details will follow next week but it will involve registering your selections for the race at various stages throughout the year – possibly in May, December, February and just before the race.
Complete details of entries requirements, dates and prizes will be available on this site in the near future so keep checking back for information on how to register.

We Never Close!

I plan to be posting throughout the year on all topics Grand National related and it would be great it if as many of the users would stick around as possible as we really appreciate your thoughts and contributions.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 7 Comments »

The various connections of 2008 Gold Cup winner have been suggesting (and then changing their minds) that Denman will take part in the Grand National at some stage in his career, possibly as soon as 2009.

Part owner Harry Findlay has stated he thinks the horse’s top class jumping would be a big asset in a race like the Grand National and this prompted Coral to quote Denman as short as 10/1 favourite for the 2009 National.

It looks as though the owner might now be having second thoughts and the trainer doesn’t seem too keen at this point either but it’s safe to say that the possibility of this top class horse running in the National does get the imagination whirring.

How much weight would he have to give away if he were to run? How many horses would be out of the handicap? Could he possibly win?

It would be a great sight to see but I have a feeling that Paul Nicholls might just win this argument and the Gold Cup will remain the focus of this horse’s attention.

Would you like to see Denman in the National? Give us your insight into the idea of a Gold Cup winner heading the weights and let us know if you think he could possibly pull off a famous double.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 3 Comments »