Apologies everyone but responsibilities elsewhere have not left me as much time as I would like to devote to the blog in recent weeks – I hope things will improve after Xmas.
The Welsh National is fast approaching and I see that you have all started work on this excellent race so I will keep things relatively brief. I can pass on that the Jonjo O’Neill team are very keen on the chance of Synchronised and whilst this is no great surprise given his market position, I was lucky enough to attend a recent media day at the stables and the O’Neill team suggested a quiet confidence that Synchronised could match Bonanza Boy in the 80s and win back to back Welsh Nationals. There was no mention of the possibility of the Lexus chase that I heard on that stable visit but obviously plans can change but I would still be surprised if connections elect to travel to Ireland.

I have also added some basic stats for the Welsh National which I have amended from last year which are outlined below:

Trainers

Trainers to look out for here are Paul Nicholls (two wins and five placed including a famous 1-2-3 in 2005), Jonjo O’Neill two wins, Alan King one win and three placed and Venetia Williams one win and three placed in the last ten years.
Trainers with a disappointing record include Nicky Henderson and David Pipe who have had just one placed horse in the last ten years. However Pipe jnr will undoubtedly be keen to put that record right given that his father won this race five times in six years back in the 90s.
Irish trainers have had a poor record in this race with the exception of Jim Dreaper who won this race in 2008 with Notre Pere.

Age

None of the last ten winners were aged older than nine so any of this year’s representatives in double figures will have to buck a trend that stretches back to the ten-year-old Riverside Boy in 1993. There have only been three ten-year-old winners since 1976 and no winner over that age.

Recent Form

Nine of the last ten winners had finished in the first four on their most recent start (Synchronised the exception) so coming into this race in decent form seems a big plus given the extreme competitive nature of the race and the inevitable soft conditions also means that fitness is usually at a premium.

Stamina

All ten recent winners had won over at least three miles with six winners having winning form over further. This doesn’t appear a race to take a chance on your selection getting home.

Avoid Over Raced Horses

All of the last ten winners had only run twice in that season at most. It would seem that any horse that has been busy by the time of this race is at a disadvantage.

Course Form

Course experience is always a bonus but this seems to be quite pronounced at Chepstow with seven out of the last ten winners already a winner at the track.

Please now add your thoughts and tips for the 2011 Welsh National to this page