Top Grand National Trends

Hopefully we will be getting a number of new visitors to the site over the next few weeks so I thought it would be a good idea to have a readily available reference point for the best trends to use for the Grand National.

I saw that Grand National Blog contributor Lucky Vane had added the following and they look a great starting point:

  • 1 Ran within 49 days
    2 Must have at least 3 runs in current season.
    3 Must have a top 3 place in any of last 3 runs.
    4 Must have at least 10 chase runs experience
    5 Must have at least 19 National hunt runs experience.
    6 Must have a career best RPR in chases in any of last 2 starts, or won on with same or better OR than their Grand National OR.
    7 Must have a top 2 placing in a race at Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown Festival or a top 3 placing in any National.
    8 Must have won a chase over 3 miles 2 furlongs.
    9 Must have a top 2 position in a chase with 16 or more runners.
    10 Must have a top 3 position in a class 1 chase.
    11 Must have a top 3 position in any national hunt race ran in either March or April.
  • It would be great if our readers could add their favourite trends to this page and we could come up with a definitive list for readers old and new.

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    35 Responses to Top Grand National Trends

    1. Lucky Vane says:

      I’m honoured Darren, forgot to add

      12 A top 2 position in any chase at the Cheltenham , Aintree or Punchestown Festival or a top 3 position in any National

      13 Must be trying the race for the first or second time.

      14 Must have a top 3 placings in a chase of 28 furlongs or greater.

      This will leave you with Cause O Causes and Bless The Wing.

      But I also like from years ago Nick Morden style where he allows one trend to be broken, in the middle of working out who passes 13 of the 14 trends.

      P.S. 19 national hunt trend was Ben’s (Aitken) idea check his site Narrowing The Field out!

      trend number 12 came from our own Crisp 73

      trend number 14 came from our own Miinnehoma

      I think that’s everything :)

    2. Lucky Vane says:

      Sorry should read before responding, you already had ” A top 2 position in any chase at the Cheltenham , Aintree or Punchestown Festival or a top 3 position in any National”

      The one trend missing is a run in January. Or between Christmas to early February most winners has this, but don’t know the reason. Could be concidence or are they important Grand National trial races run in this period, like the Welsh National and Cotswold Chase for example.

    3. Lucky Vane says:

      The reason I excluded May from the spring Months was that the competitive racing is over after April, unless you included Irish racing and that’s covered in my opinion by the Punchestown Festival

    4. Lucky Vane says:

      Found an interesting site with more trends. Some on simular lines to my stats, but as far as I know developed separately. http://grandnationaltrends.co.uk/stamina-grand-national-stats/

    5. Systemsman says:

      Lucky Vane in your opinion who fits the key trends best at this point. Thanks for your work. I am still sticking with main trends myself despite my poor record for a while.

    6. Lucky Vane says:

      Just to recap the trends in full

      1 Days since last ran 49 days
      2 Minimum of 3 runs in season
      3 Best to have a top 3 place in any of last 3 runs.
      4 Best to have a run between Boxing Day and Weights Day (Valentine’s Day this year)
      5 Best to have a win at 26 furlongs or more
      6 Best to have at least 10 chase run experiences
      7 Best to have at least 19 runs of any sort in National Hunt racing
      8 Best to have a career best in chasing in any of last 2 races, or a winning chase official ratings equal to or better than it’s Grand National official rating
      9 Best to have a top 2 placings in chase fields of 16 or more runners
      10 Best to have a top 3 placings in a class 1 chase
      11 Best to have a top 3 placings in any National Hunt race in the months of March or April.
      12 Best to have a top 2 placings at Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown Festival or a top 3 placings in any National
      13 Most winners are trying the race for the first time, but the are a few who has 1 previous run. Only Amberleigh House ran more than once before success in recent times.
      14 Best with a top 3 placings in distances of 28 furlongs or longer.

      The site which I left a link to provides the reason for some of my stats especially 28 furlongs and large fields.

      Now the conclusion

      Only a maximum of forty can run and some of these are currently outside that forty.

      Those which have passed at least 13 of the 14 trends are:

      The Last Samuri : Failed on 19 National Hunt Races, he has 18.

      Wonderful Charm : Failed on top 3 placings at 28 furlongs he pulled up in both races longer than this the 2015 Bet 365 Gold Cup, won by Just A Par and the 2016 Grand National won by Rule The World.

      Cause Of Causes : Stat perfect, but has only won at Cheltenham in March.

      Just A Par: Poor form at Aintree finishing 15th behind Rule The World some 147 lengths adrift but was heavily eased off. Also weakened at Foinavon (13th) in Oscar Time Bechers before pulling up. Also had outings on Mildmay course and Cheltenham Festival without success.

      Raz De Maree currently outside the 40 : Failed on Career best Chase RPR, and not won on a mark which equals or better his Grand National mark, but did get a Chase RPR of 149, best at 153, on penultimate run, last run being a hurdle race.

      Thunder And Roses also outside the 40 :Failed on same stat as Raz De Maree but like Raz De Maree put up a Chase RPR 146 in the Bobbyjo race, penultimate start. Career best set at 150.

      Goodtoknow again not guarantee a run, and only breaks stat 12 no form in any of the Festivals or Nationals but only because he’s never raced at them venues.

      Bless The Wing currently number 60 is stat perfect, but unsure to get in.

    7. Systemsman says:

      Lucky Vane do you have the scores from 14 for these runners. I would expect the winner to have 11 or more but not necessarily all 14. Thanks.

      21 pts Blaklion (5 votes 1 Nap)
      20 pts Cause Of Causes (4 votes 3 Naps)
      17 pts Vicente (4 votes 1 Nap)
      15 pts Minella Rocco (3 votes 1 Nap)
      11 pts Vieux Lion Rouge (3 votes)
      9 pts Definitely Red (2 votes 1 nap)
      9 pts One For Arthur ( 2 votes)
      8 pts Ucello Conti (2 votes)
      8 pts Thunder And Roses (2 votes)
      7 pts The Last Samuri (3 votes)
      4 pts The Young Master (3 votes)
      4 pts Pendra
      3 pts Raz De Maree

      I have backed Cause of Causes on top of a few others based on your stats.Keen to know the score for Blaklion and Vieux Lion Rouge.

    8. Lucky Vane says:

      Score for the following were

      The Last Samuri 13/14

      He only had 18 National Hunt races instead of 19.

      However 13 is considered to be a pass, techincally and only 1 run short I’m prepare to give him a pass in the spirit of the trends.

      Minella Rocco (pulled out today ) scored 12/14

      He had lack of experience in both Chases 9 and National Hunt races in general with 11. Maybe it was that lack of experience which caused him to fall against Many Clouds.

      Blacklion scored 12/14

      No wins at 26 furlongs, he did win at 25.5 furlongs so maybe a bit cruel there, but he’s also not got a top 2 placings in a chase with 16 or more runners. This is my biggest worry about Blaklion.

      The Young Master scored 12/14

      No top 3 placings in any of last 3 runs only Auroras Encore has won this century without a top 3 placings in any of last 3 runs it a visual sign of form. Also we can take this trend further all bar Papillon (2000) Numbersix (2006) & Auroras Encore (2013) had been a top 3 finish at least twice in the season from beginning of August.
      The Young Master not only fails this he also fails the extended trend. He also has no top 2 at the festivals but did finish 3rd in the 2016 Ultima some 9 lengths behind Holywell. I did last year added on a extra place to Crisp’s stat meaning it would have pass this, but decided to keep to the letter this time.

      Cause Of Causes scored 14/14

      The are only minor worries about him. Can he only act on one track, my opinion was that Aintree 2 years ago was an afterthought. This time round it’s been planned (probably from last year when he missed the cut).

      Vieux Lion Rouge scored 10/14

      The New Fav doesn’t come out well.

      Only 2 runs in season although they are winning ones (one on the National course itself).
      No run between Boxing Day and Weights day. Only a minor worry but they add up.
      Lack of Chase experience with only 9 chases, he does have 21 National hunt races of any kind though.
      No form at the three festivals or Nationals. He did finish 48 lengths in 7th behind Rule The World. (The rain didn’t help )

      Definitly Red scored 10/14

      Lack of chase experiences with 9 runs in chases, but he does have 19 runs in any National Hunt race.
      No top 2 positions in chases with 16 or more runners. The only race with that many runners was against Minella Rocco in the 2016 National Hunt Chase of last seaon. The was 20 runners to be exact and he fell.
      No festival form or National form see above.
      No form at 28 furlongs or longer, again see above.

      Ucello Conti scored 10/14

      No win at 26 furlongs, longest win is 21 furlongs also no top 3 at 28 furlongs , longest here is 25 furlongs suggesting lack of stamina.
      No ratings in last 2 races, maybe because they were run at foreign tracks, but career best either in last 2 with ratings although they came close.No festival form or National form either.

      Will give you the rest tomorrow at sometime.

    9. Lucky Vane says:

      Hi systems going to try and answer the rest of those in your list.

      Just a reminder for myself, left with

      17 pts Vicente (4 votes 1 Nap)
      9 pts One For Arthur ( 2 votes)
      8 pts Thunder And Roses (2 vote)
      4 pts Pendra
      3 pts Raz De Maree

    10. Mike N says:

      That’s good news for me. As Vicente has been my no 1 pick and One For Arthur my no 2. :)

    11. Walsh81 says:

      How many of the last 10 grand national winners ran in the race in previous years? I don’t think it’s any is it? Seems that quite a few on the trends shortlist have run in the race before.
      Last Samurai,Raz de MAREE and Cause of Causes.
      Can we eliminate horses on the fact they have run in the race before? I understand previous runners have won the national but is it generally seen as a negative if they have? Has anyone looked at this angle?
      I understand Raz de MAREE ran as a 9 yr old and finished 8th and Causes of Causes the same position as a 7 year old.
      Could argue Cause of Causes was too young the but not sure I could argue a case for Raz.

    12. Pollyowls says:

      Walsh 81,
      Mon Mome had definitely run in the previous year’s race (finished 10th)… going back a little further so had both Hedgehunter and Amberleigh House

    13. Walsh81 says:

      Yeah your right Pollyowls Mon mome is the only one in the last 10 years. I wonder what percentage that is from horses that have tried it a few times and failed. I’ll have a look.

    14. Lucky Vane says:

      I’ve looked at my trends for the National and tweak it a bit.

      1 Days since last ran 56
      2 4 runs from August 1st
      3 Top 3 in any of last 3 runs.
      4a Career best RPR in chasing in any of last 3 chases (provided they’re in same season).
      4b Must have a winning OR in chasing that equals or betters it’s Grand National OR
      5a Minimum of 10 chases
      5b Minimum of 19 National hunt races of any type.
      6 Top 2 in chases with 16 or more runners, favour those with a top 2 in chases with 20 or more runners.
      7 Top 3 in any National Hunt race ran in March or April with 8 or more runners.
      8a Top 3 in chases with 8 or more runners that’s over 28 furlongs or longer
      8b Top 3 in chases with 8 or more runners that’s over 26 furlongs or longer providing it’s a class 1 chase.
      9a Top 2 at a chase ran over the Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown Festival
      9b Top 3 in any class 1 National.
      10a Top 3 in any class 1 chase that has 8 or more runners
      10b Won a class 2 or class 1 chase.
      11 First time or second attempt at race.
      12 Ran between Boxing Day to just before the weights are revealed.

      Ran these trends over the last 10 winners and it got 7/10 with 11 or more trends fitting.

      This year’s field sees

      Wonderful Charm only 3 runs
      Blaklion no top 2 in chases with chases of 16 plus runners
      Cause Of Causes
      Houblon Des Obeaux no top 3 position in any of last 3 runs
      Raz De Maree no best RPR within last 3 runs, nor winning OR at or equalling his GNOR
      Thunder And Roses (see RDM above)
      Goodtoknow no festival or national form
      Bless The Wings

      Those trends with an “a” and “b” condition you can take either.

    15. Walsh81 says:

      Lucky Vane good work.Im confused as to the conclusion though,which horses fit the trends?

    16. Bobs Worth says:

      I’m assuming it’s the 8 horses listed:

      Wonderful Charm only 3 runs
      Blaklion no top 2 in chases with chases of 16 plus runners
      Cause Of Causes
      Houblon Des Obeaux no top 3 position in any of last 3 runs
      Raz De Maree no best RPR within last 3 runs, nor winning OR at or equalling his GNOR
      Thunder And Roses (see RDM above)
      Goodtoknow no festival or national form
      Bless The Wings

    17. Lucky Vane says:

      All eight indeed fit’s my list but the cut off is those in the final 40. Only Cause Of Causes fit perfectly in the 40. But in Nick Mordin style I’m allowing one trend to be broken. I’m also giving each horse the best chance to pass each stat, without loosing sight of that stat purpose.

      7 winners in the past decade passed 11 out of the 12 trends which is 70%.

      I think the are some good chances here, but it’s all about opinions.

      These stats were developed mostly on what I’ve read on here, and a few other site and also what I’ve pondered on in the year’s since I’ve joined and numerous losers backed before Many Clouds and the reason why I failed.

    18. Lucky Vane says:

      How I came about my stats.

      1 Days since last ran why 56 and not 49.

      Years ago I had a computer program for the Spectrum it was by Brimadon, (before the internet days) I had to key in the data so was slow, they did provide a booklet laying down their ideas and they suggest that a flat horse could have a maximum of 28 days off before their fitness lost it’s edge, and national hunt horses double that. I’ve no idea on the merit of that, but Neptune Collonges did demonstrate that in the most exciting Grand National finish ever.

      2 Minimum of 4 runs from August 1st. Fits most Grand National winners.

      3 Top 3 placings in any of last 3 runs again fits most winners, I’ve read some statisticians suggest no more than 1 win in the season. Thinking behind this is a horse has to be brought to it’s best for the target race. This has never been favoured by me, because some wins could be easier than others.

      4a Best Chase RPR in any of last 3 chases providing they in same season.
      This is looking at improvers, and also current form.

      4b Winning chase official ratings better than or equal to it Grand National official ratings. This allows those don’t fit 4a but has shown he can win on or above that mark to get in. This allowed Neptune Collonges and Auroras Encore to pass the stat. The reason behind it was the Grand National is still a handicap and like all handicaps it is sometimes reported that such and such is back on a winning mark. I’ve no idea on how to compile handicaps so leave that to Phil and his cronies :D

      5 Minimum of 10 chases or 19 National hunt races of any type. The reasoning here is experience gained by the horse. The two can be independent of each other.

      6 Top 2 in a chase of 16 or more runners, favour those that got top 2 in 20 plus runners.
      The National has 40 runners or close to that number at best, these days. You want a horse who shown it can handle megafields. [the term megafield is a phrase I made up to summon 16 plus fields]. Why 16 and not 15 or 14. My research showed that 17 was the minimum number of runners each one past, and a top 2 placings was a very strong connection between those. Only 2 had top 4, one untried. [Lord Gyllene from memory] and one in hurdle race. So 16 out of the past 20 runners was 1st or 2nd in fields of 17 upwards. I decided to lower the field size to 16 as that pays out 4 places in handicaps.

      7 Top 3 in any national hunt races with 8 or more runners in the months of March or April. It is said that some horses are spring horses, and this stat is design to sort them out. I want the races to be meaningful so 8 or more is my personal benchmark on competitive racing.
      Also why not May?
      May starts the beginning of the new season in the UK and the top horses are generally put in a field to relax after a busy season. The Irish does have Punchestown, but in general national hunt racing is winding down. March and April are usually the most competitive racing with Cheltenham and Aintree and Ayr and Fairyhouse Festivals to aim for.

      8 Top 3 in chases of 28 furlongs plus or in 26 furlongs plus if class 1 [again 8 or more runners]
      This is to test stamina and was developed from Miinnehoma’s idea and observation and partly from a site I visited and liked.a link provided here http://grandnationaltrends.co.uk/stamina-grand-national-stats/

      9 Top 2 in any chase at Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown festival or any top 3 in any class 1 National.
      Developed from an idea from Crisp 73. Added the class 1 part, so you’re looking at long distance races with strong form [in theory anyway] :P

      10 Won a class 2 or class 1 chase, or top 3 in a class 1 race with 8 or more runners.

      The first part is generally good, but doesn’t give maidens like Rule The World a chance. Although it was over a century before Rule The World that the last maiden won it, and it might be another century for the next one, I think we shouldn’t dismiss them too easily.

      11 First or Second time triers.

      Most winners are trying the race for the first time, but the are a few who have tried before and come back to win. Amberleigh House is the only horse in the 21st Century to have ran more than once before winning, but then Ginger was a bit of a bullhead, and I mean that in the nicest way since Red Rum and Amberleigh House was both backed by me.

      12 Ran between Boxing Day to early Feb.

      This may just be coincidence but most winners have ran in this period, some have multiple runnings in this period. Don’t know why, maybe the are key races like the Welsh National and Cotswold ran in this period, or maybe it represent a perfect “stepping stone” [for want of a better word] in form to the National and other big races.

    19. Pollyowls says:

      Evening all…
      So, to try and help my own thinking regarding this year’s race, I have looked up my old elimination trends from previous years. My trends try and help me find the winner – placed horses may come from outside this group.
      Not had much luck the last couple of years… but I have tweaked the system a little this year to come to a more meaningful solution.
      I have a set of 8 trends I look at – a version of Lucky Vane’s trends but (being a bear of not much brain!!) a simpler version. In previous years, I’ve eliminated horses that fail one trend – this year I’ve checked them all, and will rank each horse out of a total of 8.

      The trends are:-
      1. Weight – on only three occasions since 1960 has the winner carried more than 11st 7lbs – the incomparable Red Rum twice (1974 & 1977) and the gallant Many Clouds (2015). Since 1980 only Bobbyjo has carried more than its allocated long handicap weight to victory.
      Therefore, Trend 1 says ‘Must carry less than 11st 7lbs or more than 10st’ – success rate 93% (52 out of 56)

      2. Age – no 7-y-o has won since 1940, no 13-y-o since 1923. I have seriously considered eliminating any 12-y-o, since they have won only once in the last 20 years (Amberleigh House). However, this age group were reasonably successful during the 70s & 80s…
      …so for the moment Trend 2 says ‘Must be aged between 8 & 12 years inclusive’ – success rate 100% (56/56)

      3. Distance – since 1970, every National winner had previously won a chase over 3 miles or further. Rule The World knocked this one for six last year… but only him and Gay Trip buck that trend in the last 50 runnings. I still think it’s valid.
      So Trend 3 says ‘must have previously won a chase over 3 miles or further’ – success rate 96% (48/50)

      4. Runs during season – since 1968, only Aldaniti had raced once that season before winning, only Miinnehoma had run twice, and only Last Suspect & Ballabriggs had run three times. The most was Lucius, who was making his 10th appearance of the season when winning in 1978. Being a cautious sort, I’ve allowed three runs in
      So Trend 4 says ‘Must have run three or more times since 1st September’ – success rate 96% (46/48)

      5. Chasing Experience – only Miinnehoma in recent history had not run in at least 10 chases previously.. and he’d run in 9!! Previous experience over fences appears to be crucial
      So Trend 5 says ‘must have started at least 10 chases previously’ – success rate 96% (26/27)

      6. Last run – in recent history, only Specify has his last run more than 10 weeks before the GN. The timing of Easter can affect the actual number of days, but the race calendar remains constant
      So Trend 6 says ‘Must have run last between the day of the Haydock GN Trial and the day of the Midlands GN’ – success rate 96% (44/46)

      7. Top Class Form – previous form in a top quality race has proved vital. The ‘Big 12′ includes Scottish, Welsh, Irish & Midlands Nationals: the Hennessy at Newbury; the Gold Cup, Kim Muir & Festival (Ultima) at the Cheltenham Festival; the Topham & Becher Chases at Aintree, the Sandown GC and the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. Top 4 form in these races show the skill, class and bravery needed to succeed in the National.
      So Trend 7 says ‘Must have top 4 placing in a ‘Big 12′ chase’ – success rate 85% (23/27)

      8. Form LTO – most National winners showed decent form in their last prep run, though winning form is not essential. A few, such as Don’t Push It & Red Marauder bucked this trend, but the majority did
      So Trend 8 says ‘Must have finished in top 5 on last run’ – success rate 75% (33/44)

      Have applied these to the top 50 in this year’s race… can’t see any others getting in
      Results coming up..

    20. Pollyowls says:

      This year’s trend results…

      8/8 – Cause Of Causes, Houblon Des Obeaux, Saint Are, Just A Par, Raz De Maree, Bless The Wings
      7/8 – The Last Samuri, Saphir Du Rheu, Roi Des Francs, Foxrock, Wonderful Charm, Tenor Nivernais, Blaklion, The Young Master, Ucello Conti, Lord Windermere, Vicente, Pendra, Rogue Angel, Thunder And Roses, Gas Line Boy
      —————–
      6/8 – Shantou Flyer, Perfect Candidate, Wounded Warrior, Definitly Red, Double Shuffle, Pleasant Company, One For Arthur, Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Ziga Boy, The Romford Pele, Goodtoknow, La Vaticane, Knock House
      5/8 – Carlingford Lough, Drop Out Joe, Le Mercurey, Maggio, Regal Encore, Vieux Lion Rouge, O’Faolains Boy, Vics Canvas, Stellar Notion, Cocktails At Dawn
      4/8 – Alelchi Inois, More Of That, Ballynagour, Measureofmydreams, Doctor Harper

      To be a winner, I think you have to have a score of at least 7… so there are a few highly fancied candidates who I don’t believe can win
      Hope that gives some food for thought…

    21. Mike N says:

      Good work Pollyowls.
      I’d be interested in what the scores would be if you did just trends 1 to 7.

    22. Pollyowls says:

      Mike,
      If Trend 8 was taken out, scores would be…

      7/7 – Cause Of Causes, Houblon Des Obeaux, Saint Are, Just A Par, Raz De Maree, Bless The Wings, The Young Master, Lord Windermere, Vicente, Thunder And Roses
      6/7 – The Last Samuri, Saphir Du Rheu, Roi Des Francs, Foxrock, Wonderful Charm, Tenor Nivernais, Blaklion, Ucello Conti, Pendra, Rogue Angel, Gas Line Boy, Wounded Warrior, The Romford Pele, Goodtoknow, La Vaticane, Knock House
      ———————–
      5/7 – Shantou Flyer, Perfect Candidate, Definitly Red, Double Shuffle, Pleasant Company, One For Arthur, Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Ziga Boy, Maggio, Regal Encore, O’Faolains Boy, Cocktails At Dawn
      4/7 – Carlingford Lough, Drop Out Joe, Le Mercurey, Vieux Lion Rouge, Vics Canvas, Stellar Notion, Alelchi Inois, More Of That, Ballynagour, Measureofmydreams, Doctor Harper

    23. moari says:

      Does any one think lord windermere might be well handicapped?After all he is a former cheltenham gold cup winner and he had to carry 11-10 in the mud last year .10-9 seems light enough to give him chance if he has been trained for this all season.He is still only 11 yr old to boot.

    24. Systemsman says:

      Lucky Vane and Pollyowls great work both and very interesting. Nice to see some of my selections in there. If one or both give us the winner we can sue in again in 2018 (adjusted).

    25. Mike N says:

      cheers Pollyowls. I have one in the 7/7, one in the 6/7, and one in the 5/7 categories.

    26. Lucky Vane says:

      A fun way to pick your horses from Racing Post website by (Arthur) :P I mean Peter Scargill [memories of the 80's there]

      The National is the one race of the year you want to back the winner of so you can brag to your friends for the next 12 months about how shrewd you are. You could just pull out a pin or pick your favourite number, but would it not be better to have put a little thought in so you can wow everyone with your skills? With that in mind, here are a few places to look to help you unearth the winner

      Weight

      No race in Britain or Ireland is run over further than the Grand National’s 4m2½f trip. So it takes a talented horse to lump a big weight around to victory.

      That is borne out in the stats, with only two of the last ten winners carrying more than 11st to glory, so out go the top ten in the weights for this year’s race.

      One potential spoiler, the two horses to carry more than 11st to victory have come in the last five years.

      Betting

      Is it just easiest to back the favourite or leading fancies in the betting? Well, no actually. There have been two joint-favourites win in the last ten years but on the whole it has been a race in which big prices have ruled.

      The average SP of the winner in the last ten years is nearly 35-1 and we have had winners at 100-1 and 66-1. So if an outsider in the betting appeals, do not be put off by the price.

      Country

      England has been the dominant country in recent years in terms of where the Grand National winner is trained, albeit most runners in the race are from there.

      Last year’s winner Rule The World was the first from Ireland for ten years while Scotland (1979) and Wales (1905) have even worse records in supplying the victor.

      Colours

      Yes, people do pick their Grand National bets on the colours the horse carries. So is one colour more popular than others? Sort of.

      Runners with colours that are mainly green, mainly yellow or mainly green and yellow have been successful in five of the last ten Grand Nationals (Don’t Push It, Many Clouds, Neptune Collonges, Ballabriggs and Mon Mome). Just something to bear in mind.

      The jockey

      Leighton Aspell has been the main man with two wins in the last three years. He rides Lord Windermere this time around.

      Historically, however, any rider whose name begins with ‘R’ has a better chance than the average of riding the winner. Good news for the likes of Ruby Walsh, Richard Johnson and Robbie Power

    27. Lucky Vane says:

      I think the basics of my system worked

      Best Chase RPR in any of last 3 chases providing they in same season or winning chase official ratings better than or equal to it Grand National official ratings.

      Top 2 in a chase of 16 or more runners, favour those that got top 2 in 20 plus runners.

      Top 3 in chases of 28 furlongs plus or in 26 furlongs plus if class 1 [8 or more runners]

      Trouble is how many of the field past all three trends.

    28. Systemsman says:

      Many of the key trends did stand up – i always expected the winner to miss one or two but always like the “Top 3 in chases of 28 furlongs plus or in 26 furlongs plus if class 1 [again 8 or more runners] trend”. Have to say i was always happy for 3 runs or more that season for the winner rather than 4.

      Lucky Vane and Pollyowls – good work. Are you now able to refine your trends for 2018 at this stage?

      Looks like we still have 6/7 or so important trends to me.

    29. Lucky Vane says:

      Decided to strip my trends to their bare elements and reexamine them.

      So here are the basics trends from my point of view.

      1 Chase experience between 10 to 16 runs in chases.
      2 Top 3 in chases at 25 furlongs or longer (with 8+ runners in)
      3 Top 3 in chases with 16 or more runners in.
      4 Best chase RPR in last 12 months (April to April) or Highest winning official ratings is same as or better than it’s Grand National official rating
      5 Chase RPR is at 145 or more in last 12 months (April to April)

      This would have got you 6 winners in the last decade.

      Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges & Auroras Encore would be eliminated because of too many chase runs, while Ballabriggs had 2 hurdle races and one chase. The hurdle race produce a highest RPR in hurdles and the chase produce a RPR over 145 but not a career best.

      Going to study these trends further to see how many runners you’ve backed in the last 10 years and if they can be improved without loosing their purpose.

    30. Lucky Vane says:

      Taking these 5 trends further in the past 10 years you would have only 6 nominees in 2008.

      They are

      1 Comply Or Die 7/1 winner
      2 Slim Pickings 10/1 fourth
      3 Bewleys Berry 12/1 fifth
      4 Bulter’s Cabin 10/1 fell
      5 Knowhere 66/1 Unseated Rider
      6 McKelvey 25/1 Unseated Rider

      2009 race to follow

    31. Lucky Vane says:

      Mon Mome in 2009 would have been eliminated with these trends, but how many would have passed and just how many of the 5 basic trends did he fail?

      First trend is 10 to 16 runs in chases.

      I must admit that a top limit bothers me a little as it implies a small window of opportunities to win the national and even smaller chance of a repeat win. The are some winners who had between 23 to 27 runs previously before winning and Mon Mome is one of those. I suspect that the will be future winners which falls in neither, but for now recent winners have fallen in either 10 to 16 and 23 to 27. Logic says to me that the gap 17 to 22 must also be taken into consideration if including 23 to 27 and since the purpose of a trend is to reduce the number of runners to a manageable quantity, then win or lose (because only hindsight would tell us if we were right or wrong) I feel we must only let those with 10 to 16 through this section.

      Those are

      1 STATE OF PLAY (4TH)
      2 CERIUM (5TH)
      3 BUTLER’S CABIN (7TH)
      4 SOUTHERN VIC (8TH)
      5 SNOWY MORNING (9TH)
      6 ARTEEA (10TH)
      7 IRISH INVADER (11TH)
      8 DARKNESS (13TH)
      9 BATTLECRY (16TH)
      10 REVEILLEZ (BD)
      11 SILVER BIRCH (FELL)
      12 ZABENZ (FELL)
      13 HEAR THE ECHO 1 (FELL)
      14 RAMBLING MINISTER (FELL)
      15 KILBEGGAN BLADE (FELL)

      Our first trend has reduced a field of 40 to 15. But for a betting proposition this is still too many.

    32. Lucky Vane says:

      Trend 2 is about stamina. We know that Mon Mone had got placed in a previous welsh national and also won a listed race at Cheltenham in December of 2008, at 25.5 furlongs so maybe was worth a little more consideration, but for now let’s return to our 15 selections. For stamina test I’ve gone back to 25 furlongs just a little more than the required 24 furlongs, so those serious about the National would have sent their horses at least this far. My own view is fields of 8 or more are a bit more competitive so the trend is a top 3 placing at 25 furlongs with 8 or more runners.

      Our 15 now looks like this

      1 STATE OF PLAY (4TH)
      2 BUTLER’S CABIN (7TH)
      3 SNOWY MORNING (9TH)
      4 DARKNESS (13TH)
      5 BATTLECRY (16TH)
      6 REVEILLEZ (BD)
      7 SILVER BIRCH (FELL)
      8 ZABENZ (FELL)
      9 HEAR THE ECHO 1 (FELL)
      10 RAMBLING MINISTER (FELL)
      11 KILBEGGAN BLADE (FELL)

    33. Lucky Vane says:

      Trend 3 is about how they handle very large fields of 16 plus runners in chases. The National has the best part 40 runners, and to negotiate it a little bit of luck is needed, but also skill. A horse who has experience these kinds of fields successfully before is more likely to win than those which haven’t (IMHO). The Welsh National in which Mon Mome was second in had 18 runners and so qualified as such a field.

      My findings said first or second had a real strong chance, I’m willing to extend that to a third place for trend purposes.

      Our 11 now becomes ….10

      1 STATE OF PLAY (4TH)
      2 BUTLER’S CABIN (7TH)
      3 SNOWY MORNING (9TH)
      4 DARKNESS (13TH)
      5 REVEILLEZ (BD)
      6 SILVER BIRCH (FELL)
      7 ZABENZ (FELL)
      8 HEAR THE ECHO 1 (FELL)
      9 RAMBLING MINISTER (FELL)
      10 KILBEGGAN BLADE (FELL)

    34. Lucky Vane says:

      Trend 4 & 5 are designed to look for current form. A best RPR in chasing in the last 12 months should see if anything is showing improvement while a RPR of 145 minimum sets a decent benchmark. Mon Mome did this on 12th December 2008 at Cheltenham with a rating of 155 (4 runs before his National win).

      Our 10 now becomes 3

      1 SNOWY MORNING (9TH)
      2 DARKNESS (13TH)
      3 RAMBLING MINISTER (FELL)

      Conclusion : While not getting even a place our selections are only 3 so very exceptable. The winner only failing with too many runs may re-exam this trend later.

      2010 race analysis will follow…..

    35. Lucky Vane says:

      Before moving on to 2010 race, I forgot to check the official ratings of the candidates and their highest winning ratings before the 2009 race. Only 1 additional to add which was State Of Play. His National ratings was 142 in 2009, while he won on 152 at Wetherby 1st November 2008 (according to RP).

      So in 2009 I had four running for me and got fourth at best priced 14/1 which would get £4.50 for £8 (£1 EW times 4) a loss of £3.50

      In 2008 I would have staked £12 (same £1 EW per candidate) and returned £14.25 (profit of £2.25)

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