Scottish National 2018

Please add your thoughts for the 2018 Scottish Grand National to this page

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122 Responses to Scottish National 2018

  1. Seven Towers says:

    Why hasn’t Regal Flow passed your stats Systems. Looks like another Seven Towers to me. Made for this distance on all types of ground.

  2. Seven Towers says:

    Trouble is, he is by a Derby winning stallion. Who was the last one of those to win a ‘National’?!

  3. moari says:

    Walsh 81….. I’ve already put the kiss of death on Silsol,Mysteree and also Glencairn view.Backed this morning so they have an extra challenge in proving me right.

  4. Systemsman says:

    Just the one more only.

    Ballyoptic

    Fails on:
    17/17 top2 at 25f+
    16/17 5+ h’cap chase runs or won a h’cap
    17/17 OR150 or less.
    16/17 3 or more runs at 25f+
    16/17 biggest £ chase win in last 9 chases.

    Makes 15. OUT

    Also
    12/14 RPR>OR 6+, not snor.- not this season.

  5. Walsh81 says:

    Been looking at the year Al co won it and any pointers as to why that horse would win.
    Low weight for one also I remember on the day seeing it’s price crash on Ladbrokes from 100-1 And shorten dramatically.
    What is distinctive about that horse is it ran over hurdles twice before it’s Scottish national win, evidently to keep it’s mark down maybe.

    Been through this year’s field in an attempt to find an ‘ Al Co or the ugly duckling in the race and the one I have found that has run two hurdles preps and the only one I can see is

    WORK DE BRETEAU

    Other interesting thing about this horse is it’s had two Wind ops.
    Odds 66-1 Also.

    Not saying back it but just looking at a differant angle.

  6. moari says:

    I backed alcohol purely because he was a Dom alcohol after Neptune had won at aintree

  7. moari says:

    Alco

  8. moari says:

    Auto correct!!!!!

  9. JJ says:

    Walsh81,
    It’s the ground with Silsol. Soft/heavy ground horse when it comes to chasing according to his trainer.

  10. moari says:

    Watched a few interviews on you tube where Paul Nicholas says Silsol goes ok on soft ground but I haven’t seen an interview where he says he prefers it to good ground or doesn’t like good ground.He has had a tendon problem in the past though and I imagine good or firm ground can cause problems?

  11. Dubacilla says:

    Couldn’t decide in the end so just backed Ballyoptic. Probably has the beating of a lot of these. Will probably back Benbens ew. Don’t really care that much for stats in this race.

  12. Systemsman says:

    Price.

    Well whatever stats you use you take a chance but:

    2017 9/1
    2016 14/1
    2015 25/1
    2014 40/1
    2013 12/1
    2012 15/2
    2010 18/1
    2009 12/1
    2008 66/1
    2007 14/1

    So 16/1 or less is 6/10
    20/1 or less is 7/10
    25/1 or less is 8/10

    On reflection price is not such a key stat.

  13. Walsh81 says:

    Scottish national for Dummies lol

    7/10 winners have carried 10 st 9 or less- that’s a pretty good stat in my opinion and eliminates half the field.

    8/10 winners have been priced 25/1 or less. Good stat and again shortens the field.

    9/10 winners raced in last 42 days or less

    This leaves us with 3

    COGRY
    GLENCAIRN VIEW
    THE YOUNG MASTER

    We could extend that to 6 if we relax the last run rule including

    LOOKING WELL
    MYSTEREE
    DOING FINE (133 DAYS since last run but 10/1)

  14. Corbiere says:

    Systems I respect you and the amazing amount of work you do on here.
    BUT seriously are you looking at the price as a means to selecting a horse in any race. Surely every race is different and whether a horse wins it’s price can’t be relevant can it, I only mean stats wise ?
    I mean I didn’t see Mon Mome winning GN at 100/1. But afterwards people refer to a piece of form that makes you think.
    Lots of the work you do is very relevant I personally think you are over thinking this (please don’t be offended I am trying to help you not get sidetracked by something I think isn’t important.)
    This race is not very stats driven!.
    For example if you read anything into the stats I have completely wasted my money on Gold Present & Vicente.
    But I didn’t back Many Clouds or Don’t Push It simply on weights grounds.
    I didn’t back Vicente last year on weights grounds.
    So I try to look at every horse on it’s merits and I personally think Ground & Distance are extremely relevant not the price.
    I welcome your response as I say we have known each other on here for years and as I have said before often picked same horses in GN because we obviously placed importance on similar stats.
    Incidentally I personally think Gold Present MAY be the class improving horse in this race on it’s ground.
    If it’s not I got it wrong. But if it is and it wins I got 25/1 and bloggers on here will say wow thought that horse was good, but thought he had too much weight.
    After all it’s all about our indivudual thoughts, opinions, reading of the race etc.

  15. Corbiere says:

    Again Walsh81 I get that’s what the stats tell you, but is that really more relevant than whether a horse likes the ground or other important factors like it’s well handicapped ?

  16. Walsh81 says:

    Add REGAL FLOW to the shortlist due to 5lb claimer

  17. Walsh81 says:

    Corbiere your right. That’s why I put Dummies guide at the top of my post lol

  18. kj says:

    Walsh 81 Mysteree scoped bad at the WN for your info.
    I totally forgot who Regal Flow was,. has to be a contender if he overcomes his win in MN with claimer, not that I’ve checked his ground suitability.. but seems from here (just in after a fair bit of sun) 20-1 e/w not bad.

  19. Corbiere says:

    Fair One Walshy !

  20. Corbiere says:

    KJ
    I had Regal Flow, Sizing Tennessee & Ballyoptic on my original short list and having reviewed the ground they Have Won in, Run in, I have taken a view that Good (Good to Soft in places) (current ground) , with a sunny forecast (Likely to go off Good) is not their ground, If I am wrong I have made a big booby, in ruling all 3 out on that basis.
    Will look at RP Trainer’s comments tomorrow to see what they say about horses liking/disliking likely ground. If they say they will love it then maybe a last minute bet on one or more of them.
    As I say I am basing my choices on what they have Won on/Run on in the past, if Trainer says I have been waiting for his ground forever then that’s different.
    Let’s face it we haven’t had GOOD ground for so long and that is why I have selected thoses horses I have.
    Theoretically all love the ground forecast
    Vicente
    Gold Present
    Cogry
    Doing Fine

  21. Corbiere says:

    Off to bed chaps, tomorrow.

  22. moari says:

    One I’ve just had another look at is Joe Farrell and his win at Newbury last time out was only a second slower than Native Rivers time earlier in the season,same course,distance and ground and carrying only 4lbs less than NR.He has old Vic as dam sire so could be an improving horse for the step up in trip????Lots of question marks this race

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