Scottish National 2017

Please add your tips and trends for the Scottish National at Ayr on Saturday 22nd April.

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82 Responses to Scottish National 2017

  1. sampy says:

    Hoping Premier Bond is entered. He ran really well in Kim muir, keeping on.

  2. Lucky Vane says:

    All caught up. Been busy today and not just on this site, day that I donated blood (not to the bookmakers, that’ll probably happen on Saturday :P ) The are now 28 people casting their vote. A few regulars yet to cast theirs, Showlad always leaves it late, but no Systemsman too. I see that Daniel Edwards is compiling his thoughts, on the main thread. But it’s Walsh 81 vote I’m really keen on seeing. Come on as you requested the no table to sway your vote, so can you vote please. WITH HONESTY.

    One more piece before the thread police arrive (Mike N and 7T). If any newcomers want to vote I will check any post waiting for approval so you don’t miss out.

  3. Seven Towers says:

    Hello, hello, hello. What do we have ‘ere then?

  4. Walsh81 says:

    Lucky Vane read your post-What you going on about??? Different National this love.

  5. Lucky Vane says:

    Hi it’s just a reminder for people to vote, nothing else. I put one on every active post. And in past years we’ve had a mini vote of 3 Checkout the backlogs.

  6. Mike N says:

    my early pick for this is Arpege d’Alene 16-1

  7. Seven Towers says:

    Will be very interested if this HEIST turns up for this. His form prior to his break has produced a lot of subsequent winners and placed horses. Just wonder if the break was an enforced one. If not and it was just to keep him fresh, he does a an awful lot of staying on in most of his races. I like him.

  8. Mike N says:

    With 30 allowed to run my advice would be concentrate on the first 40 for now and decide if you like any of them. Anyone’s guess below that getting in at this stage.

  9. Party Politics says:

    I’m going to keep an eye on this group, if they run, with a view to next year’s Grand National, particularly the two I’ve starred:

    Another Hero*
    Looking Well
    Mysteree
    Seldom Inn*
    Warrantor

  10. Pollyowls says:

    Don’t know what everyone else thinks… but in terms of quality, this is the poorest field I can remember for a Scottish National for a long time. An awful lot of these are untried novices or the usual suspects seriously out of form…
    You would have to think Vicente has a major chance of repeating last year’s success (if he’s anywhere near last year’s form). I’m interested in Warrantor – that was a decent run in the Midlands Nat and he’s run consistently all season. Of the novices, Battle Of Shiloh could be anything, but he’s worth a look on the basis of that Uttoxeter hurdle he won. I’m sure old Portrait King will run his usual honest race, as long as the Topham didn’t take too much out of him.

  11. Corbiere says:

    Polly couldn’t agree more it’s a dreadful field, very poor quality. I backed Mysteree AP and it’s sadly pulled out of list, no idea what’s happened to him. actually put a tenner ew on him and was thinking of trebling it looking at this awful field until I noticed he wasn’t in latest betting.

  12. Mike N says:

    I’m sticking with the novices, Arpege and Premier.

  13. Seven Towers says:

    This year’s NH Chase form is already looking questionable. It certainly won’t produce the kind of horses that we saw in last year’s race. That said they are still novices so can improve next year but I think I will steer clear of them in this race. I just get the feeling that the race on Saturday is going to be set up for something with a bit more experience. Possibly even a previous winner. I will stick my neck out and say I don’t think Premier Bond will see this out as again that Kim Muir doesn’t look the strongest race and I think he was the best horse in that race and yet still didn’t win. It could be that this is a very poor SN though.

  14. Seven Towers says:

    If anything is going to be coming out of this with the GN in mind next year, I would want to see some big distances like that which Merigo and Auroras put between them and the rest of the field in their race.

  15. Mike N says:

    Re Premier Bond this was asked before Cheltenham…

    Q. How much of a racing certainty is Premier Bond in the 4 miler and who would ride him?
    A. I’m actually sitting here with his owner so perhaps I should ask him! He’s also in the Kim Muir as well as the 4 miler and we haven’t decided which he will run in yet.

  16. Mike N says:

    I think he will get the trip.

  17. Seven Towers says:

    I am most looking forward to Antarctica this weekend. Just to see if she is the real deal.

  18. mike campo says:

    Managed to get a little of the 16/1 with P.Power this morning once Southfield Royale was pulled out of tomorrow’s Chelt chase. Hopefully will go for the SN now. Looks on a good mark as long as he bounces back to last year’s form and would be my first SN winner since Merigo, who I backed for both his wins.

  19. Mike N says:

    I backed Southfield in the NH Chase Mike C and he didn’t quite stay then will be interesting to see if he does this time.

  20. mike campo says:

    A year older and stronger now Mike, and I’m not sure whether he really failed to stay or was simply a little outclassed at level weights. At OR141, he looks well weighted against Native & Minella and had Vicente a little behind.
    Worried about his three runs since, but hopeful re age, past form and great looking handicap mark.
    Mullholland not too bad at readying them in these type of long distance events either, ie Welsh Nat 2nd this season and 365 winner last season.
    Hopeful.

  21. mike campo says:

    ps
    Can’t believe that those bookie chappies have clipped his odds to 10/1 today. The overall market prices would be outrageous enough in a NRNB market. Everything will be available at approx 50% better price on Saturday together with more places and other incentives and money back if non runner.
    Why are they killing AP betting ?
    Perhaps there are enough mugs out there to bet AP at any price offered, no matter how ridiculously they price up the horses.!

  22. Mike N says:

    Mullholland had a winner today at Cheltenham a horse who was declared for Scottish National wasn’t going to get in. The horse won today which probably explains why some punters may have latched on to Southfield for Saturday resulting in shortening of odds.

  23. mandie says:

    my selections would be dancing shadow,arpege d’Alene and seldom inn all of which have an interest.
    missed approach,virak and kruzhlinin did make the short list. good luck all.

  24. Kevski111 says:

    Had a touch on man with van, big price obviously :))

  25. Party Politics says:

    I’m going to stick with SELDOM INN and ANOTHER HERO.

    SELDOM INN has great staying dosage figures 0-1-1-0-8 DI 0.18 CD -1.50 and his trainer, Sandy Thomson says “it’s all about staying – the further the better”. He also says he’s better on decent ground which is bourne out by the vast majority of his runs being in autumn and spring. I have a slight worry about his jumping, but at 20/1 I’ll take the risk.

    ANOTHER HERO is another who looks like he’ll stay on dosage 3-3-5-7-2 DI 0.74 CD -0.10. You can draw a line though his last run at the Festival where he was hampered and lost his chance. Before that, he ran two decent races in Class 1 ‘chases behind Ziga Boy and Regal Encore. 20/1 with Bet365 is worth taking as he’s 12′s in places elsewhere.

  26. moari says:

    Had a go with father ted just because i loved the programme and he has the same sire as beshebar,can’t really fancy him on form but the pipe stable can be quite canny in preparing horses for races like this

  27. JJ says:

    Hi all,
    My picks for the win:
    Arpege D’Alene
    Henri Parry Morgan
    Place punts:
    Blakemount
    Alvarado

  28. Kevski111 says:

    I will go for Arpege D’Alene.

  29. super keno says:

    Just the one for me, Arpege D’Alene

  30. sunnyhills nose hair says:

    spent 2 hours studying the trends and sticking strictly 10/10 9/10 to qualify, that leaves 2, HENRY PARRY MORGAN and PREMIER BOND, of those two I am sweet on HPM as to me he looks very well handicapped with some usual tell tale signs of a plot with a hurdles run in his prep etc and I can’t be betting the favourite in this, however I will cover with a small stakes on premier Bond just in case. The only slight concern is that Sean Bowen is on Arpege D’Alene? Is this a tip in itself for this one or is he just remaining faithful to Nichols??

    Any thoughts on this would be welcome

  31. Showlad says:

    Hi all my 4 against the field:
    MISSED APPROACH
    VICENTE
    DAWSON CITY
    BLAKEMONT

    Good Luck all :)

  32. Party Politics says:

    A little theory I have on marathon chases. The following won’t win. If I’m right I’ll elaborate further:

    Premier Bond, Battle Of Shiloh, Fine Rightly, Sugar Baron, Father Edward, Gone Too Far, Lessons In Milan & Vintage Clouds.

  33. marko says:

    My 2 are

    Vicente 10/1
    fine rightly 33/1

    Both 6 places

  34. Lucky Vane says:

    My 4 against the field are

    SOUTHFIELD ROYALE
    SUGAR BACON
    ARPEGE D’LENE
    SELDOM INN

  35. miinnehoma says:

    Blakemount
    Shotgun Paddy
    Cogry

  36. miinnehoma says:

    Weight wise 11-03 or less but some big weights have won.

    2004 Grey Abbey 11-12
    1999 Young Kenny 11-10
    1997 Belmont King 11-10
    1993 Run For Free 11-10

    Your man Crawford is a cute boy.
    So, I think a wee ew on Fine Rightly @ 33 would be no harm.

  37. Kevski111 says:

    Buzz horse of the day seems to be Henri Parry Morgan, you could well be right SNH, will have a few bob on.

  38. Kevski111 says:

    3 Bets today. Baby Bach in the first at Ayr, looks good value @ 25/1 e/w. 2 horses in the national: Arpege and Henri Parry Morgan. Good luck folks :)

  39. Mike N says:

    As a rule I never back horses in the Scottish National that have run at Aintree. I prefer horses targeted for this race, if the Aintree horse pops up and wins it now and again so be it, but I like to stick to my principles. ;)

  40. Mike N says:

    my other day selections are in the General January page.

  41. Showlad says:

    5 places being paid so Showlad’s 5 against the field for you all is:
    BENBENS (could run a very big race) get on @85s betfair ;)
    MISSED APPROACH
    VICENTE
    DAWSON CITY
    BLAKEMONT

    Good Luck all :)

  42. miinnehoma says:

    Henri Parry Morgan -
    His OR has dropped like a stone.
    He started this season on OR150 & is now on OR135.
    Last yr he was 2nd to Native River & then he was 5/1F for the Sandown GC.

  43. Mike N says:

    Agree that Harry is well handicapped at his best but his jumping has been dodgy at best this season, and if you don’t travel in this race you aint gonna win.

  44. Mike N says:

    Mike N says:
    April 22, 2017 at 10:53 am
    As a rule I never back horses in the Scottish National that have run at Aintree. I prefer horses targeted for this race, if the Aintree horse pops up and wins it now and again so be it, but I like to stick to my principles. ;)

    To elaborate, what I mean is that when horses run in the National and exit early I don’t know if they continue running or are caught early. So even though they might be quoted as not having a hard race do they continue running loose for an extended period of time? We just don’t know.

    Whats interesting is that Paul Nicholls said about Vicente, and I quote…

    “I was expecting much better from him in the Grand National earlier this month but he got no further than the first fence where he was brought down.
    Luckily he was caught quickly so didn’t waste much energy at Aintree.”

    So that leaves me with a bit of a dilemma about him. ;)

  45. National Punter says:

    Hi all,
    Seeing if I can rattle off my hatrick of 2 nd & 4th placed ( really I just want s winner )
    Gone kruzlinin 33/1
    Cogrey 33/1
    Taken showlads advice on benbens at 66/1 and 80/1 win only
    Will pick 2 more before the off.
    Did have Vicente in the national but like others say an afterthought and beaten by kruzlinin by 16 1/2 l at haydock, only a 1 lb swing , backed kruzlinin as he had won so well a few months prior , but was disappointed by his 6th at haydock, just looked at the result and he was behind vioux de rouge, black lion, gas line boy which all placed in the GN. So looks worth a shout
    Usually the Scottish national has less quality so liking kruzlinin with his front running style for at least a place.
    Thoughts anyone?

  46. Maj says:

    Not spent a great deal of time looking at the race, this morning but my 6 are:

    PREMIER BOND
    MISSED APPROACH
    TRUSTAN TIMES
    VINTAGE CLOUDS
    ALVARADO
    BENBENS

    BENBENS could surprise a few and I think TRUSTAN TIMES in unbelievably well handicapped and has shown promise on last 2 runs for new yard. ALVARADO for the nostalgia and VINTAGE CLOUDS looks nicely weighted if you can ignore his two recent falls.

    Poor quality field though!

    I will likely back VINTAGE CLOUDS, BENBENS and TRUSTAN TIMES

  47. National Punter says:

    I think last yrs field was pretty poor, apart from cause of causes who pu, which horse has kicked on and done anything this year?
    Top 5 haven’t done anything

  48. Seven Towers says:

    First of mine has got to be MISSED APPROACH now he has drifted to 22/1 with Bet 365. I’m hoping the absence of Sheehan again will be in his favour. Stable in great form and the first race winner has franked the form.

  49. Kevski111 says:

    ^^^^
    Also franked the form of Arpege…

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