Scottish Grand National 2010
Apologies for the delay in putting up the thread for The Scottish National 2010 but I wanted to wait until the declarations were released. I see you have been hard at work but please start using this thread for the Scottish National and the new Grand National 2011 thread for your thoughts on next year’s race.
As for the Scottish National I’ve adapted a post I made a couple of years ago which might be a starting point for finding the winner at Ayr :
Previous Winners
A good place to start is to look at the basic details of the last ten previous winners:
Scottish National Winners/Age/Weight/SP/Official Rating
2009 Hello Bud 11-10-9 12/1 133
2008 Iris De Balme 8-9-7(oh26!) 143?
2007 Hot Weld 8-9-9 14/1 124
2006 Run For Paddy 10-10-2 33/1 135
2005 Joe’s Edge 8-10-0 (5oh) 20/1 132
2004 Grey Abbey 10-11-12 12/1 148
2003 Ryalux 10-10-5 15/2 140
2002 Take Control 8-10-6 20/1 140
2001 Gingembre 7-11-2 12/1 137
2000 Paris Pike 8-11-0 5/1JF 143
Analysis
The victories of Hot Weld and Hello Bud were slight trends breakers in that Hot Weld did not have a top five finish last time out and had a low official rating. Iris De Balme also had an official rating much lower than 143 but ran from that mark so I think we can include him in the figures .Hello Bud was the first winner in the last decade to be over ten years old.
Aged 7-10 (9/10)
Official Rating 132-148 (9/10)
Finished in top 5 on last outing (9/10)
In addition no horse that has run in that seasons Grand National has gone on to win the Scottish National so it would appear we can discount any horse who lines up after a trip round the Grand National fences. We can also discount those horses with a poor jumping record as only 2001 winner Gingembre had a record that included more than two falls or unseats.
Stamina will also be a huge consideration and nine out of the last ten winners had demonstrated winning form over at least 3 miles.
So add in:
No more than two falls or unseats (9/10)
Stamina proven at three miles (9/10)
And it looks also safe to remove any horse following on from Aintree.By my reckoning this leaves a shortlist of:
Gone To Lunch
Mobaasher
Poker De Sivola
This has cut the field down dramatically and, of course, is only a suggestion as a starting point for analysis.
From the three left, preference would be for Poker De Sivola given the stables great record in the race, although his hard race at Cheltenham and an eleven pound hike by the handicapper tempers enthusiasm somewhat. Compare that to Hot Weld who was given a six pound rise for winning the NH Chase in 2006 and yet still failed to win on his next start at Punchestown. Poker De Sivola looks to have a serious chance but at odds of 6/1 perhaps we need to look deeper at the other runners.
Let us know who you fancy
This post has 226 comments
#1
April 12th, 2010 17:59
ran in last 60 days 15/15
Top 6 LTO 15/15
won c1/2 chase 10/13
won 3m+ 14/15
6 or less seasonal runs 12/13 3-8 15/15
OR 132-143 11/13
47% Place S/R 15/15 (might need checking)
aged 7-10 10/11
won or placed over 25f 11/11
won a chase worth at least 10k 11/11
at least 10 chases 11/11
top 3 during season 10/11
won a chase with 10 or more runners 10/11
running of highest hcap mark 15/21 others within 6lb
best RPR within last 3 starts 20/21
won 2+ chases 18/20
less than 3 F & UR 21/21
Didnt realise there was this many!! I guess Crisp must have put a fair few of these up!?!
Please be flexible in using the stats and i suggest giving every runner points for each stat passed. Hello Bud was a very good stats fit last year depite his age
#2
April 12th, 2010 18:17
TC – Gingembre (2001) won 84 days after his last run
#3
April 12th, 2010 18:20
Does anyone know where i can find a full race listing the the Scottish Grand National,id like to look at the weights and current form.Thanks
)
#4
April 12th, 2010 18:23
cheers Pablo, they may need checking a bit, feel free to update them
#5
April 12th, 2010 18:25
Just shows that you need to check everything!
Number of chases >10 looks wrong as well
Joe’s Edge = 6
Paris Pike = 5
Both trained by Ferdy Murphy
#6
April 12th, 2010 18:30
oops, was in a rush!! i’ll check them now
#7
April 12th, 2010 18:34
Where’s Crisp!!
#8
April 12th, 2010 18:37
TC thanks for stats up first post! and all yer input this yr.
Haven’t looked at this one yet and now I’m here know I’m not really upto it yet, heard the obvious pick Silver is injured, would have picked him regardless who else is running! subsequently only other runner I have heard entered Halcon seems a depleted force unfortunately and top weight won’t help and high weights don’t win do they?….ooooooooooh I’ll come back
#9
April 12th, 2010 19:37
Oh no, thought we had seen the last of Gone to Lunch!! One I will have to back just in case! I really like Mobaasher, was badly hampered at Cheltenham.
If anyone has a definite list of trends please post them now! In the meantime, I will go from some of TC’s
#10
April 12th, 2010 19:45
speedy – will update in an hour or so, but they’re not far out
#11
April 12th, 2010 19:57
Good man
#12
April 12th, 2010 20:02
Always interested to see a Nicky Henderson horse go oop north [Scots Dragoon].
#13
April 12th, 2010 20:04
List of Scottish National winners and their RPR and season form from start upto Scottish National.
2009 Hello Bud 11 10-09 N A Twiston Davies, Paddy Brennan RPR 145
FORM 1 RPR 140
P 000
6 134
P 000
1 136
2008 Iris De Balme 8 9-07 S Curran, Charlie Huxley RPR 154
FORM 3 RPR 121
1 124
3 119
P 000
2007 Hot Weld 8 9-09 Ferdy Murphy, Patrick Mc Donald RPR 144
FORM 6 RPR 121
P 000
P 000
P 000
2006 Run For Paddy 10 10-02 Carl Llewellyn, Carl Llewellyn RPR 147
FORM 2 RPR 143
8 132
4 141
7 143
1 140
2005 Joes Edge 8 9-11 Ferdy Murphy, Keith Mercer RPR 145
FORM 1 RPR 141
P 000
2 135
2 137
2 120
1 120
5 107
2004 Grey Abbey 10 11-12 J Howard Johnson, Graham Lee RPR 166
FORM 1 RPR 163
1 122
6 114
2003 Ryalux 10 10-05 A Crook, Richie McGrath RPR 150
FORM 3 RPR 146
2 146
2 141
1 139
3 134
2002 Take Contol 8 10-06 M C Pipe, R Walsh RPR 153
FORM 5 RPR 114
P 000
4 147
P 000
6 124
3 148
2001 Gingembre 7 11-02 Mrs L C Taylor, Andrew Thornton RPR 160
FORM 4 RPR 139
P 000
2 151
F 000
B 000
U 000
Hope this comes out, okay!
#14
April 12th, 2010 20:06
Racing Post or Sporting Life websites carry full card details. Mark B
#15
April 12th, 2010 20:08
ran in last 60 days 14/15
Top 6 LTO 14/15
won c1/2 chase 10/13
won 3m+ 14/15
6 or less seasonal runs 13/15 3-8 15/15
OR 132-143 13/15
47% Place S/R 15/15
aged 7-10 12/15
won or placed over 25f 15/15
won a chase worth at least 10k 10/11
at least 10 chases 13/15
top 3 during season 14/15
won a chase with 10 or more runners 13/15
running of highest hcap mark 15/21 others within 6lb
best RPR within last 3 starts 20/21
won 2+ chases 18/20
less than 3 F & UR 21/21
I hope these are right, really dont want to go through the winners again!! Dan E’s percentage system might be a good idea
#16
April 12th, 2010 20:13
Mark; Attheraces website shows old races for free as well.
#17
April 12th, 2010 20:17
Mark B;
Attheraces homepage….third line down…
click on Tomorrows cards then follow line to click on Sat 17th runners
(NB.Weights have gone up 29 LBS since yesterday)Simon
#18
April 12th, 2010 20:54
Thanks Maureen,Simon H and Niel S.Im still learning how to give myself the best possible chance and studying form is now getting almost as interesting as the race itself.
#19
April 12th, 2010 21:06
#27
st peter
April 13th, 2009 16:49
Thanks for all the info.Got these stats from last year so they need double checking-if I’m wrong please let me know.
Male 20/20
24 chase runs or less 19/20 -Willsford
Running from highest hcap mark 14/20-others within 6lb
Best RR in last year last 3 chase runs 19/20 -Take Control
Top 6 last completed 18/20 Earth Summit 7th +Willsford 8th
Won 2+ chases 18/20 other 2 second 1/4 L +3/4L
Won 3 chases +17/20 +Captain Dibble
Won no more than 7 chases 19/20-Willsford
Won no more than 3 hcap chases 18/20-Willsford Roll a joint
Not Fell or UR more than twice 18/20
-Gingembre and Grey Abbey 3 times.
Placed 25F + -20/20
Placed 27F + -16/20
Won a chase 3M + 19/20-Joes Edge
Ran last 49 days 18/20 -Gingembre +Run for Paddy
Out of hcap 6/20
All bar one who completed an Ayr chase were top two
#20
April 12th, 2010 21:08
#40
crisp 73
April 14th, 2009 15:55
Thanks all for trends/stats.
19/19 1st,2nd,3rd,4th over 27f or more/ or furthest distance raced.
19/19 40% place strike rate in chases/ 70% if contested less than 9 or less chases.
#21
April 12th, 2010 21:10
#52
crisp 73
April 15th, 2009 07:48
19/19 Scottish National winners won 1 of their last 9 chases.
winners 89-08; 20/20; won/placed at 27f or more- or won/placed at furthest distance ran. *Placed is 2nd,3rd,4th.
Roll A Joint- won at 30f
Four Trix- won at 24f, placed at 33f
Killone Abbey- won at 33f
Captain Dibble- won at 24f, placed at 25f(furthest distance ran)
Run For Free- won at 30f,
Earth Summit- won at 24f, placed at 27f
Willsford- won at 36f
Moorcroft Boy – won at 33f
Belmont King- won at 24f, placed at 27f
Baronet – won at 24f, placed at 33f
Young Kenny – won at 34f
Paris Pike – won at 26f (furthest distance ran)
Gingembre- won at 24f, placed at 27f
Take Control – won at 27f
Ryalux- won at 25f (furthest distance ran)
Grey Abbey – won at 26f, placed at 33f
Joes Edge- won at 20f, placed at 25f(furthest distance ran)
Run For Paddy- won at 25f, placed at 29f
Hot Weld- won at 33f
Iris De Balme- won at 31f
#22
April 12th, 2010 21:44
Matk; be warned, it’s highly addictive! But it’s fantastic to watch a race and know so much about all the horses running in it, even if you don’t pick the winner. I wanted to know all the horses in last years Ebor because we were going that day and I didn’t know much about flat racing. Luckily I backed Sesenta, but it was great to see in the flesh all the horses I’d been studying. I then saw a few of them go off to the Melbourne Cup and was given a link to Australian radio so I listened to the whole days racing. Oddschecker show a lot of races now, as well, and you can listen to the races on their racing radio [if you're not at work, that is!].
#23
April 12th, 2010 21:44
I seemed to come to the conclusion last year you want something hitting form, as my earlier post points out.
On a personal note had Grey Abbey, a pillar to post weight carrying performance, but he was in the form of his life and could be an exception to the statistics.
Also had Iris De Balme at 100/1 (early price)
Fancied Chief Dan George last year, but did find Hello Bud, but didn’t backed it.
#24
April 12th, 2010 23:02
Age: 8-10 (8/10), 7-11 (10/10)
Weight: Max 11.02 (9/10), Max 11.12 (10/10)
24f Ch wins: Min 1 (10/10)
Best win £: 15k (8/10), 7k (10/10)
Best win class: 2 (7/10), 3 (10/10)
Min TS: 133 (7/10), 114 (10/10)
Min RPR: 137 (9/10), 124 (10/10)
Chase runs: Min 10 (8/10), Min 5 (10/10)
Chase wins: Min 3 (7/10), Min 1 (10/10)
Best place distance: 27f (7/10), 25f (9/10)
F/UR: Max 3 (9/10), Max 4 (10/10)
Preps: 4-6 (9/10), 3-6 (10/10)
Days since last race: 14-63 (7/10), 7-84 (10/10)
Last win: Within last 10 races (10/10)
#25
April 12th, 2010 23:05
Awarding 1 point for meeting the first criteria, and 0.5 point for meeting second criteria gives a shortlist of:
1) Gone to Lunch
Killyglen
2) Merigo
3) Boychuk
4) Chief Dan George
5) Air Force One
6) Gidam Gidam
7) Himalayan Trail
9) Razor Royale
10)Nenuphar Collonges
11)Poker de Sivola
#26
April 12th, 2010 23:49
JUST REPOSTING SO IT’S ON THE RIGHT THREAD
The Rascal has mainly focussed on the profiles of the last fifteen winners of the Scottish Grand National in determining his selection for 2010 but there are some deviations. At this early stage there are still plenty of entries likely to defect so The Rascal has based his assessment on the top 40 in betting.
Age
In the last fifteen years WILLSFORD (1995) has been the only twelve year old winner and, indeed, has been the only twelve year old to triumph in this race in the 44 renewals that The Rascal has access to.
In the period from 1966 to the present day the age picture has looked like this:
6 YEAR OLDS – 1 WINNER
7 YEAR OLDS – 8 WINNERS
8 YEAR OLDS – 13 WINNERS
9 YEAR OLDS – 12 WINNERS
10 YEAR OLDS – 6 WINNERS
11 YEAR OLDS – 3 WINNERS
12 YEAR OLDS – 1 WINNER
It is perfectly sensible not to rule out any seven to ten year olds but the others that can potentially be ruled out here are FINE BY ME (11), HIMALAYAN TRAIL (11), HOLD THE PIN (11), IDLE TALK (11), LOTHIAN FALCON (11) and OUT THE BLACK (12). An eleven year old winner last year but history suggests it’s unlikely to be repeated.
Weight
6 winners have carried 11 stone 5 pounds or more to victory since 1966, including GREY ABBEY (11-12) in 2004 but The Rascal is looking for a winner with an official rating no less than 124 and with anything rated above 150 unlikely to run we’re left with HALCON GENELARDAIS, MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, RAZOR ROYALE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, AURORAS ENCORE, MOBAASHER, MONTERO, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, THEATRICAL MOMENT, BALLYFOY, POKER DE SIVOLA, THAT’S RHYTHM, FABALU, GIDAM GIDAM, SELECTION BOX, LOCHAN LACHA, SUPERIOR WISDOM, CHIARO, MA YAHAB, MEANUS DANDY, DOM D’ORGEVAL, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN, PRESENT M’LORD, HUKA LODGE and LORUM LEADER.
Season Runs
Less than three season runs in preparation for this race would defy a fifteen year trend, eleven from fifteen had between four and six preparation races and The Rascal has made this his range to eliminate HALCON GENELARDAIS, RAZOR ROYALE, MONTERO, THAT’S RHYTHM, GIDAM GIDAM, SELECTION BOX, SUPERIOR WISDOM, CHIARO and LORUM LEADER leaving nineteen potential winners of the Scottish National. Namely MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, AURORAS ENCORE, MOBAASHER, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, THEATRICAL MOMENT, BALLYFOY, POKER DE SIVOLA, FABALU, LOCHAN LACHA, MA YAHAB, MEANUS DANDY, DOM D’ORGEVAL, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN, PRESENT M’LORD and HUKA LODGE.
Career Wins
All but one of the last fifteen winners had a minimum of four career victories to their name (n.b. TYPE OF RACE UNDEFINED) so MEANUS DANDY and PRESENT M’LORD can be dismissed.
3 Mile + Wins
JOES EDGE was the only recent winner of the Scottish National not to have previously registered a win over three miles. IRIS DE BALME and GINGEMBRE had only done so once and RYALUX twice while the remaining 11 of our 15-winners sample had previously scored three or more victories over the three mile distance. Clearly an advantage then so the best looking contenders in this regard are MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, MOBAASHER, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, BALLYFOY, FABALU, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN and HUKA LODGE this year.
Strike Rate
With such a difficult race to judge and with some healthy odds on offer it seems prudent to The Rascal to make his wager on the Scottish National an each-way bet. He’s therefore following entries with an attractive strike rate – after all, the previous fifteen winners of the Scottish National had all placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in at least 40% of their chase runs.
This rules out MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, ACCORDING TO JOHN and HUKA LODGE.
Form in Big Fields
All fifteen of the last Scottish National winners had previously registered at least a sixth place finish in a field of 16 horses or more. Failure a few from home then for BALLYFOY who does not meet this requirement.
Form
11 out of the last fifteen winners all had a season win going into the Scottish National and three of the remaining four had at least a top three place to show off about. NENUPHAR COLLONGE looks the least likely of the remainder then.
The Shortlist
Red marks are plastered across The Rascal’s spreadsheet but some have avoided the stain and these make up The Rascal’s Scottish National shortlist of 6:
CHIEF DAN GEORGE
AIR FORCE ONE
GONE TO LUNCH
MOBAASHE
FABALU
MERIGO
Getting Brutal
The Rascal is not prepared to back all six of his selections so it’s time to get even more brutal with the stats and narrow the field down further.
The last 14 winners have all finished at least sixth in their most recent race – this would dismiss the chances of AIR FORCE ONE.
Winners with an inadequate five to nine chase runs have all registered strike rates of 70% or better – this rules out FABALU.
The final four all have a great chance of winning the Scottish National but The Rascal is going to plump for MERIGO who has winning form at Ayr and can return to winning form off his new chase mark.
1st) MERIGO
2nd) CHIEF DAN GEORGE
3rd) MOBAASHE
4th) GONE TO LUNCH
#27
April 13th, 2010 06:27
To do a full study, but using OR 143-132 or from Gone To Lunchto Himalayan Trail the likeliest winner seems to be Poker De Sivola, but that just a quick glance response.
Will do a full study later.
#28
April 13th, 2010 06:38
had a go at Dan E’s percentage system. Amazingly the 2 horses that came out on top had winning form at Ayr
Merigo (will he handle the ground?)
Aurora’s Encore
#29
April 13th, 2010 09:27
1k e/w on Aurora’s Encore
#30
April 13th, 2010 10:13
Merigo beat Ballabriggs in a novice chase at Ayr on good ground, his more noteworthy form has been with some cut but he looks plotted for this and his last 2 runs look handy enough in that context.
#31
April 13th, 2010 14:14
I very much appreciate – Rascal – that you’ve taken time to show how the application of your system pans out – ie which criteria eliminate which horses. So much more informative than those that just say here’s the criteria, here’s the selections they produce. So thanks for that.
Could you maybe help me a bit further by explaining what you mean by-
‘Winners with an inadequate five to nine chase runs have all registered strike rates of 70% or better’
That’s to say the ideal candidate has between 5 and 9 chase runs in what – their career or the current season? And if not? a strike rate of 70% plus in what – current season or career? Chases only?, all NH?, all races?
Thanks.
#32
April 13th, 2010 15:08
I see Timmy Murphy has been booked to ride Merigo. Here’s what he (and Andrew Parker) said of the horse’s Eider win -
“The ground was very tiring and we went a nice gallop.
“The second horse came by me, but luckily they came by me early enough, he was going a lot better than me at the time but four miles is a long way.
“He’s a funny sort of horse because even though he looks to be going in slow motion, when you get him into a rhythm and give him a couple of slaps he has actually quickened after the last. He’s very tough.”
Parker said: “The owner is a patriotic Scotsman so he will probably go up to Ayr for the Scottish Grand National but there is no reason why he shouldn’t be an Aintree horse next year.
“I thought he was beaten at the last and I was already looking in the racecard to see how much you got for second.
“But you can never give up on this horse as he just keeps galloping and I am chuffed to bits.”
—
I have some, admittedly dated, stats that suggest that Pistolet Bleu’s are not inconvenienced at all by racing on a sound surface.
But I read Murphy to be saying Merigo needed every yard of the 4 miles on heavy in the Eider to prevail. Had that race been run on good, one has to wonder if Merigo’s clearly abundant reserves of stamina would have come into play quite so much. Would it have pegged back the second again on good going? Probably not.
So perhaps not so much a concern over the going as such (Merigo will likely travel on it) but that with a sounder surface this race presents less of a stamina test than the Eider.
Perhaps why, in the same sentence as mentioning Ayr, Parker mentions Aintree. An out and out stayer who, even over 4 miles, could, on a faster surface, get tapped for toe although not, apparently, lacking at all in terms of heart and guts.
And the tartan army would clearly love to take the race for the first time since 1982. But what would a 20 year trend produce on stats for Scottish trained runners?
#33
April 13th, 2010 15:43
Vimto – the number of career chase runs from 1995 to 2009 for each winner has been 31-14-12–10-9-5-14-14-21-18-6-19-10-14-16. The career chase strike rates of those with less than ten career chase runs (ie. those winners lacking chase experience) have been 77.8% (YOUNG KENNY, also a class 1 winner and seven places from nine chases), 100% (PARIS PIKE, a class 2 winner, five places from five chases), 83.3% (JOES EDGE, a class 2 winner, five places from six chases).
The suggestion and implication used is that a horse without a decent amount of experience needs to have shown a bit more class and consistency than those with a few more career chases to their bow.
A class 3 win is generally required of all entrants and a srike rate above 40% so I think the assumption is as reasonable as this process can be.
FABALU has a career chase strike rate of 66.7% and a class 3 win. A non-runner now so I guess I was right, lol!
#34
April 13th, 2010 17:11
vimto I don’t think any trip in the region of 4m is a problem, it’s as you say whether something is effectively more classy/better treated given the ground conditions (goodish). Don’t forget the Eider he won was shocking – the 2nd has done nothing at all since, but Merigo has won a decent race over 3m so his jumping must be decent. He’ll be at the front end, and whilst others will undoubtedly travel better later on, they may not get past him.
That’s Rhythm was traveling strongly when coming down at the 20th last year, and is back for another pop. Interesting.
#35
April 13th, 2010 17:35
I’ve been looking at Phillip Hobbs’ horses, becasue he has such a good record in the race. They’ve all got entries at Cheltenham and Ascot as well, although Chiaro has a 3m4 one; Out the Black 3m and Boychuk 3m1. Chiaro seems to stay further [won over 31f on good ground]. Spring horse as well. Trainer seems to have got them all pretty well handicapped [no surprise there].
#36
April 13th, 2010 17:40
And also worth knowing – as far as Merigo and Timmy Murphy go – is that the owner (Raymond Green) is Timmy’s father-in-law! But equally, I know that the Scottish national has been the very definite long term plan for this horse for ages.
#37
April 13th, 2010 17:49
Thanks for clarifying Rascal. I understand it now.
Take another look at Hot Weld. In fact 4 chase runs; 2 at Cl3, 2 at Cl4; one win, one third?
So I think in the last 5 runnings your system would have missed Hello Bud, Iris de Balme, Hot Weld and Joe’s Edge?
It seems to have particular difficulty in bringing into the fray the less experienced unexposed types. And that type do win the race. Often.
The effect of the system seems to be to privelege experience. Your four picks all happen to have form at 4 miles plus. I know that isn’t an explicit criterion but they do.
In the last 20 years 7 winners had 4m+ form. 13 did not – they improved for a step up.
Just, for now, looking at the 29 runners in the handicap proper this year, 12 have 4m+ form. 17 do not.
I have broken the race into two accordingly. Of the proven experienced sorts, on an assessment of form, perhaps Merigo or Gone to Lunch come out best from that group. The group is vulnerable to an improver though isn’t it?
Because clearly unexposed types improving for a step up in trip do win the race. These are the factors I’ll be looking at to find the best improvers -
1. pedigree
2. evidence from style of running – running on, staying on, being outpaced, finishing strongly over shorter trips
3. record over time – horses who stayed a fairly long trip at a relatively young age, say staying 3m2f at 5 or 6 but who are now say 8 but haven’t yet been stepped up might be ripe to do so.
I’m fully open to scrutiny and suggestions for development. I seek to learn. Anyone else interested in seeking out the improvers? Any suggestions for candidates looking likely to improve for a step up in trip?
#38
April 13th, 2010 17:54
Thanks Maureen, with each passing year i get more involved.I just used to bet on the national,now its almost every week.Its nicer to be in the know as well,as when i go to my local course at Haydock over the summer i’ll hopefully be the one in the know and the one with the fat wallet at the end of the meeting.
Also have loved reading the comments and depth of research that the users of this blog go to in order to narrow down a race field.
So im plumping for Mobaasher at 25/1 with Coral and Merigo,and i’ll do them both each way as they represent good value.
#39
April 13th, 2010 18:04
HOT WELD’S chase career started in October 2005 and he ran in another two that year, five more in 2006 and two prior to his Scottish National win in 2007. That’s ten.
He hadn’t won a handicap chase but he had won two of his ten chases and placed in two which gives him a strike rate of exactly 40% (my minimum).
Was a class 2 novice chase winner at Cheltenham.
#40
April 13th, 2010 18:15
also my trends system isn’t as divisive as it might appear, I have merely illustrated the ones that justify my selection.
not that i have ignored other trends but there are some added or dismissed because they are not relevant (as all remaining selections from my eliminations meet them).
this is also not a race that is particularly strong on trends though they are useful and MOBAASHER (who I have placed third) has just the five chase runs so I don’t think I am guilty of dismissing the unexposed types. It was a very late tool used in finding my result and maybe my revision will make it clearer (if I get it finished!).
#41
April 13th, 2010 18:15
Vimto – agree with your approach.
Problem is it looks like an absolutely dreadful race! Especially with GTL in such poor form.
Hopefully there is an improver in there somewhere. Be extremely shocked if there is anything in there to trouble the judge at Aintree next April.
#42
April 13th, 2010 18:16
Didn’t Merigo come out on the day of the Scottish National last year due to the fast ground?
#43
April 13th, 2010 18:17
and i very much endorse each way bets in this race too
#44
April 13th, 2010 18:17
wish i had at aintree, lol, I’d be rich!
#45
April 13th, 2010 18:36
Bauer – I agree that That’s Rhythm is interesting.
We all know Pistolet Bleu can throw an extreme stayer (Merigo to name just one). I’m not sure That’s Rhythm has quite as much stamina on the dam’s side as Merigo but maybe it doesn’t need to for this race. I’d certainly prefer it’s chance of stepping up relative to some of the flat breds in the race. I’ll be doing a table of the horses I most expect to improve for a new trip. I’m including That’s Rhythm in the potentially unexposed group because whilst it’s started at 4m it hasn’t yet finished
. I’d expect it to be top 5 in this table or thereabouts.
Plenty of ‘stayed on well’ comments at shorter trips.
Stayed 3m1f as long ago as 2007 albeit over hurdles.
Remarkably few miles on the clock for a ten year old.
The fact that connections stepped up in this last year but then kept it to 3mish again suggests they may have been eyeing the race and preserving it’s rating since last year.
So I agree it’s interesting. There are others though. You do have to take a bit of a chance on it’s jumping but then you did with Don’t Push It too. I’ll be interested to see who rides it. Outside booking last year?
Was it backed last year? Does the Todhunter yard like landing a gamble? I’m rusty but I’ve a fuzzy recollection that they do?
#46
April 13th, 2010 18:49
agree vimto there are others, still working through it. He was gambled last year (I was on!) and I think his owner has helped him get some excellent jockeys on his back, although not sure who will be available for this one. I don’t follow the stable I’m afraid so not sure of betting patterns. Look forward to hearing your thoughts on the unexposed types.
#47
April 13th, 2010 19:23
Didn’t Merigo pull up lame in another race last year as well; I seem to remember being concerned for his welfare. Might have been another Timmy Murphy ride I’m thinking of, but it could be why they are concerned about the going for him.
#48
April 13th, 2010 19:30
Thats Rhythm; ‘during this race he jumped and travelled really well throughout the early stages,but, just as he made a move on the final circuit he took a heavy fall at the 20th. He was going so well at the time it was really disappointing’…..interesting, although it concerns me that his ideal trip seems to be down as 2m4f. Obviously very much aimed at the race, though.
#49
April 13th, 2010 19:30
I remember that I backed him when he won and noted him, but then he did nothing in his next runs.
#50
April 13th, 2010 20:24
My current 3;
Present M’Lord (only ‘Presenting’ 4 mile winner). Similar profile to Hello Bud last year – he could really come alive for a step up in company and a sounder surface
Merigo – as effective on quicker ground?
Auroras Encore – novice chase winner at this meeting last year over 25f
#51
April 13th, 2010 20:26
Maureen – you mentioned Philip Hobbs and yes he does seem adept at hitting the frame in this and maybe overdue a win.
I’ve been having a look at Boychuk. I can’t find any Insan’s who’ve won beyond 3m2f. I’m updating an old database of mine as I go. If anyone can find an Insan who’s a winning stayer up around 3m6f plus please let us know.
Not too convinced about the dam’s side either although the bottom line is a German family that’s unfamiliar to me and could maybe be a source of extreme stamina.
But at the moment, without more, Boychuk seems highly unlikely to stay 4 miles.
#52
April 13th, 2010 20:29
Boychuk runs tomorrow at chelts – won the same race last year
#53
April 13th, 2010 20:57
Chiaro is the one I’m most interested in; spring horse as well. 4th last year?
#54
April 13th, 2010 21:53
I guess we can rule Boychuk out then
Here’s a potential improver definitely to be at the top end of my list – Jamie Poulton’s Ballyfoy.
Yet to win beyond 3m it stayed on from 2 out when trying 3m6f in Dec 07, then one paced from 2 out 3m5f Feb 08. And take a look at the comments this season at around 3m such as ‘finished with flourish’; ‘rallied…stayed on well’; and ‘outpaced…stormed clear’ the last two in Irish mudbaths.
I have other Alderbrooks winning at 4m plus such as Naunton Brook (4m at 7), Baron Windrush (4m2f at 9).
For dosage fans it’s CD is -1.75. One of the highest I can remember. Baron Windrush -1.27, Naunton Brook -0.71.
I’m not a great fan of dosage but those that are would surely agree – this beast likely to get 4m? – is the Pope Catholic.
And Alderbrooks are certainly not reliant on soft ground to produce their best form.
#55
April 13th, 2010 22:35
Hmm Chiaro.
Just on last year’s SGN form in isolation Gone To Lunch looks best in at the weights having gone down 8lbs in the ratings. (Chiaro up 1lb).
Far be it for me to make your case for you Maureen – interested to hear your take – but I suppose we might say Chiaro might perhaps improve past Gone To Lunch etc because it’s now only 8 whereas the others reopposing are now 10 or 12.
We already knew before last year’s run that Chiaro stays 3m7f so we don’t need to consider breeding. Or do we.
I won’t say it’s totally a flat bred, there’s a bit of jumps style stamina on the dam’s side. And this is just an assertion, an impression, but the more flat bred the less I think a horse improves for finding it’s stamina as it ages.
So I think we’d need to be able to make a case that it’s improved since last year to actually win the race and personally I can’t find a reason to believe it has improved. Open to persuasion though.
#56
April 14th, 2010 01:41
Ok – perhaps the big ‘will it stay’ question of the race given there’s very little to go on in the formbook – Meanus Dandy.
Anshan tends not to throw National Types. The Anshan progeny book is massive so by no means an exhaustive update but, whilst generally Anshan’s don’t get beyond 3m, I’ve identified a few 3m3/3m4 winners and.. McKelvey. Winner of the 4m1f Summer National in 2006 and of course second in Silver Birch’s National the following year.
The damsire of Meanus Dandy is Roselier who of course appears in the National roster as sire of Bindaree and Royal Athlete. Also in this race’s history as sire of Take Control, Baronet and Moorcroft Boy. So an obvious influence for extreme stamina.
I found a couple of other Anshan Roselier crosses. The only one of note really is a horse called Time To Reflect (TTR). It didn’t win beyond 3m2f but it was 3rd in the 3m4f Durham National in 05.
I compared the grand dam lines. TTR had the odd National type bloodline (one quite similar to one Meanus Dandy has). But Meanus Dandy has more. Including a line running back to the numero uno influence for extreme stamina present in recent National history – Wild Risk.
I was going to say that at 7 you really need to have unquestionable stamina in all four corners of a pedigree so as there is a slight statistical question mark over Anshans…but scratch that –
Where Anshan’s do have extreme stamina in their make up they tend to produce it early!
McKelvey won the Summer National aged 6. And was second in Silver Birch’s National aged 7. Remember the stat about 7 year olds in the National? An Anshan nearly broke it.
Time To Reflect’s Durham National 3rd – it was a 6yo. Those that stayed 3m3 or4 often they did so early at 6 or 7. Same for those that would only get 3m – they’d commonly do so at 5, 6 or 7. Then not progress any further. They were as strong as they were going to get relatively young.
It’s almost like Anshan is, a bit like at school some pass through puberty early, an influence for early development.
So I have no worries about Meanus Dandy only being 7. If it has extreme stamina – and it looks like it might – then it seems unlikely it’s going to have to wait until it’s 10 to have that fully develop.
I don’t like backing media talking horses from big yards at the front end of the market. But I’ve learnt that sometimes my contrary pursuit of that which others can’t see can trip me up.
So even though I’ve not finished the race, I think I’ve persuaded myself. And I’d better get on before the price collapses. Meanus Dandy.
Same ownership as Denman isn’t it? I read a quote from Nicholls earlier saying something like – we’d have liked to have run Denman but not on this ground. Who’s leg are you pulling there guys – the ground is the same for this race every bloody year. You knew that. He’s also said that after Meanus won last time out he thought straight away of the Scottish National for it – if he could get it in! Use the Denman entry to hold whole the race to ransom for this beast if you needed to would you 2 Pauls and Harry.
Ah Racing
#57
April 14th, 2010 06:05
My three against the field, based on trends in the main are
mobassher
gidam gidam
poker de sivola (hoping the price drifts to 9′s)
#58
April 14th, 2010 09:03
Yes; but isn’t that the fun of it! Reading between the lines..looking for the plot horse etc etc. Love all this stuff about pedigrees; in fact it’s given me an interest in flat racing which I never had before. Where do you find out about it all?
#59
April 14th, 2010 09:17
Guess you saw that Brennan is on Meanus Dandy….Another plus
#60
April 14th, 2010 09:51
am loving your reasoning too vimto and will definitely be researching pedigree for next year’s races. MEANUS DANDY stands out a bit for me too so will take another look.
#61
April 14th, 2010 10:02
The problem with Meanus Dandy is that he is priced almost entirely on his connections. With a more low-profile trainer, he would be 20/1. But with any trainer he shouldn’t be 2nd fav on what he’s done on the track.
#62
April 14th, 2010 10:34
Chief Dan George finished for the season – bloods not right.
#63
April 14th, 2010 11:55
The Scottish National – Saturday 17th April (REVISED SELECTION)
The Rascal has mainly focussed on the profiles of the last fifteen winners of the Scottish Grand National in determining his selection for 2010 but there are some deviations. At this stage there are 40 entries remaining so The Rascal has based his assessment on these even though they won’t all feature in the race.
Age
In the last fifteen years WILLSFORD (1995) has been the only twelve year old winner and, indeed, has been the only twelve year old to triumph in this race in the 44 renewals that The Rascal has access to.
In the period from 1966 to the present day the age picture has looked like this:
6 YEAR OLDS – 1 WINNER
7 YEAR OLDS – 8 WINNERS
8 YEAR OLDS – 13 WINNERS
9 YEAR OLDS – 12 WINNERS
10 YEAR OLDS – 6 WINNERS
11 YEAR OLDS – 3 WINNERS
12 YEAR OLDS – 1 WINNER
It is perfectly sensible not to rule out any seven to ten year olds but the others that can potentially be ruled out here are QUATTROCENTO (6), FINE BY ME (11), HIMALAYAN TRAIL (11), HOLD THE PIN (11), IDLE TALK (11), LOTHIAN FALCON (11) and OUT THE BLACK (12). There was an eleven year old winner last year and The Rascal’s selection was eleven too but history suggests that’s unlikely to be repeated this year.
Any other reason to draw a line through these so early? Yes. The news in brief –
QUATTROCENTO – over exposed this season, ran in two chases over 24 furlongs and another over 27 furlongs in March alone! Would need a ten pound improvement on his last win and would need something extraordinary to beat this field home.
FINE BY ME – significantly outclassed here.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL – a recent return to winning form may attract support but this will be his tenth season run and he hasn’t achieved anything near what is being asked of him in this race.
HOLD THE PIN – has achieved more over hurdles in the last couple of years and inconsistent in chases, only one win from seventeen in his career.
IDLE TALK – unseated seven times in his career, hardly inspiring! An under-achiever.
LOTHIAN FALCON – no win since 2007 and just four runs since (only one chase). Could provide a shock with an impressive strike rate but that seems like forever ago now so best left.
OUT THE BLACK – his tip in 2009 came home third but has not been seen for 148 days and that causes concern for The Rascal.
Weight
6 winners have carried 11 stone 5 pounds or more to victory since 1966, including GREY ABBEY (11-12) in 2004 but The Rascal is looking for a winner with an official rating no less than 124 and below 150 which eliminates KILLYGLEN (153), SCOTS DRAGOON (123), CLENI BOY (122), WESTERN GALE (122), NO PANIC (120), LEAC AN SCAIL (118) and CRAIGLANDS (116).
The last ten winners have seen the winner officially rated between 124 and 148 so the range seems reasonable and looking at these eliminations the answer again seems to suggest The Rascal hasn’t lost the winner.
KILLYGLEN – top weight courtesy of his win in the Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree last year but had been falling down the ratings until finishing second to WOGAN last time out. Will not appreciate 11-12 on his back and has place claims at best.
SCOTS DRAGOON – has been showing progression and is a worry, but this could be a race too much after seven runs this term and season form might prove beguiling. Pulled up in his only class 2 outing and should be outshone here.
CLENI BOY – Has fallen twice this season and has no winning form at anywhere near the distance.
WESTERN GALE – not been seen since October and it would take inside or divine knowledge to predict WESTERN GALE as the winner.
NO PANIC – an extraordinary amount of runs this season and has showed no signs of winning in this kind of company. LEAC AN SCAIL – No chase wins from an inadequate eight chase runs makes LEAC AN SCAIL an unlikely successor to HELLO BUD.
CRAIGLANDS – Form has tapered off this season.
Season Runs
Less than three season runs in preparation for this race would defy a fifteen year trend, eleven from fifteen had between four and six preparation races and The Rascal has made this his range to eliminate HALCON GENELARDAIS, RAZOR ROYALE, FAASEL, MONTERO, THAT’S RHYTHM, GIDAM GIDAM, SUPERIOR WISDOM, CHIARO and LORUM LEADER leaving sixteen potential winners of the Scottish National (namely MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, MOBAASHER, THEATRICAL MOMENT, AURORAS ENCORE, BALLYFOY, POKER DE SIVOLA, BOYCHUK, LOCHAN LACHA, MA YAHAB, MEANUS DANDY, DOM D’ORGEVAL, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN and PRESENT M’LORD). Those ruled out here?
HALCON GENELARDAIS – difficult to get excited about following a very distant seventh in the Welsh National and no run since.
RAZOR ROYALE – a concern considering The Rascal fancied the Twiston-Davies trained gelding for the Aintree Grand National but avoided here on the basis of weight and his withdrawal from the Aintree version. If there is a late gamble could be worth following.
FAASEL – an encouraging second at Cheltenham suggests he may be going to Ayr just right but The Rascal has doubts whether he’ll outstay some of the others.
MONTERO – most recent form (P9) may be unflattering but could be deceptive since both races were over hurdles and MONTERO has only run twice since last August so the dismissal for having eight runs since the end of last April may be unreasonable. With a 100% chase strike rate from four races (three wins and one second) MONTERO could be a very live surprise but The Rascal takes him out as his quality is unproven and he may fail to make the distance. In the end, others are preferred.
THAT’S RHYTHM – held up in this race last year and fell at the 20th and doesn’t appear to like too much company.
GIDAM GIDAM –a grave danger to The Rascal’s eventual selection and a real worry, but does not have the consistency (a 33.3% strike rate) to get the tip. Again, look out for an on-the-day gamble on this one, if it comes it might prove wise to be on GIDAM GIDAM too.
SUPERIOR WISDOM – not up to standard and would be an entirely unpredictable shock to see him win. Don’t misread the recent form – the 1st place is from a field of 4 and the 2nd from a field of 2.
CHIARO – bogus results this season and very difficult to get excited about but fourth in this last year. A pound lighter in the ratings this time around but a rare winner.
LORUM LEADER – makes too many mistakes.
Career Wins
All but one of the last fifteen winners had a minimum of four career victories to their name (n.b. TYPE OF RACE UNDEFINED) so MEANUS DANDY and PRESENT M’LORD can be dismissed.
MEANUS DANDY – definitely a concern but currently priced at 8/1 which seems mean (bizarrely) and MEANUS DANDY may not take to the race.
PRESENT M’LORD – a rare winner and currently out of the handicap.
3 Mile + Wins
JOES EDGE was the only recent winner of the Scottish National not to have previously registered a win over three miles. IRIS DE BALME and GINGEMBRE had only done so once and RYALUX twice while the remaining 11 of The Rascal’s 15-winners sample had previously scored three or more victories over the three mile distance. Clearly an advantage so the best looking contenders in this regard are MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, MOBAASHER, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, BALLYFOY, BOYCHUK, MERIGO and ACCORDING TO JOHN this year.
The implication is the dismissals of:
THEATRICAL MOMENT – The Rascal has grave doubts he’ll stay and could get himself into trouble.
AURORAS ENCORE – will likely be at the front of the field but unlikely to stay with them all the way.
POKER DE SIVOLA – has come back into winning form very recently but the eleven pound hike in his rating following the Cheltenham win doesn’t warrant investment at 6/1.
BOYCHUK – too inconsistent to merit him above the others.
LOCHAN LACHA – one win and one place from eleven chases, not an option.
MA YAHAB – two chase wins have come in very small fields and may lose his way.
DOM D’ORGEVAL – ditto the above re the chase wins although more likely to be towards the head of the field. Others will stay better.
Strike Rate
With such a difficult race to judge and with some healthy odds on offer it seems prudent to The Rascal to make his wager on the Scottish National an each-way bet. He’s therefore following entries with an attractive strike rate – after all, the previous fifteen winners of the Scottish National had all placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in at least 40% of their chase runs. This rules out MIKO DE BEAUCHENE and ACCORDING TO JOHN.
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE – The Rascal had a tenner on him to win this year’s Aintree Grand National (a bet placed many, many months ago) but he withdrew very early and has looked out of sorts. Probably still rated too highly but an outing here should bring his mark down a bit.
ACCORDING TO JOHN – a dual winner at Ayr but has not progressed with age. No win since 2006.
Form in Big Fields
All fifteen of the last Scottish National winners had previously registered at least a sixth place finish in a field of 16 horses or more. Failure a few from home then for BALLYFOY who does not meet this requirement.
BALLYFOY – a two-time Lingfield winner this season but the improvement required looks insurmountable.
Form
11 out of the last fifteen winners all had a season win going into the Scottish National and three of the remaining four had at least a top three place to show off about. NENUPHAR COLLONGE looks the least likely of the remainder then.
NENUPHAR COLLONGES – will surely tire towards the end.
The Shortlist
Red marks are plastered across The Rascal’s spreadsheet but some have avoided the stain and these make up The Rascal’s Scottish National shortlist of 4:
AIR FORCE ONE
GONE TO LUNCH
MOBAASHER
MERIGO
The last 14 winners have all finished at least sixth in their most recent race – this would dismiss the chances of AIR FORCE ONE who has been withdrawn from the Aintree and Irish versions and this looks like a desperate hope now.
The final three, though, all have a great chance of winning the Scottish National and here’s how they finish for The Rascal:
3rd) MERIGO – needs this to be more of a slog than a truly run race so the ground won’t suit him. MERIGO was The Rascal’s early tip for this race and his money is already on but he is looking elsewhere now.
2nd) GONE TO LUNCH – has looked out of love with the game this season but it has been a harsh year weather-wise and back-to-back Scottish National seconds looks entirely possible on drier ground.
1st) MOBAASHER – Inexperienced in chases but has come home with two wins and two places from five outings over fences so it’s a tidy each-way selection at around 20-1. Last seen at Cheltenham and, in truth, disappointed but still came out fifth. Will be running this with less weight on his back than he’s used too and that will hopefully get him home (though the distance is the main concern). The Rascal is hopeful MOBASSHER can spring a spring surprise for those that follow his selection.
Disclaimer – as indicated the main concerns are RAZOR ROYALE, MONTERO, GIDAM GIDAM and MEANUS DANDY so look out for any late splurges for them on the day. Betfred looks to be the best option for MOBAASHER backers at present.
#64
April 14th, 2010 12:10
Vimto – interesting stuff
Of course it makes sense to look for abundant stamina but surely class also makes a difference?
In GN for example, Don’t Push It also had the class to travel off the pace and then challenge towards the end of the race (influence of Old Vic – multiple Derby winner & Alleged – double Arc winner, also in Hedgehunter & Monty’s Pass). I’d suggest that Black Apalachi was beaten by a better horse not necessarily a better stayer.
Only difficulty is I can’t find anything with much class in the SN! Possibly why very few placed horses in GN come from this race. The quality has been modest to say the least.
#65
April 14th, 2010 12:27
Mobaasher is extremely quirky – watch the way he wins his races in small fields – not one I’d want on my side in the heat of a big-field battle.
#66
April 14th, 2010 13:27
Had a look through this one today and have come to similar conclusions as Rascal via different routes and taken an EW punt at 20′s on Merigo and Mobaasher, thought Mobaasher ran well at Chelts and should come on for the run. Merigo has a lovely weight and proven stamina and also has a win on good ground so hopefully should handle the going.
Two dangers would be Gone to Lunch and Air Force One who on there very best form would take this easy as they have more class than most in this field but both hopelessly out of form and just as likely to be withdrawn so no way I can back either Ante Post. Halcon could be the other to run a big race and i might back on the day, has run well before in this off top weight and similar ground.
#67
April 14th, 2010 13:50
I think Air Force One’s target is Sandown. Wouldn’t say hopelessly out of form either, 3rd in the Aon when not asked to race and was traveling strongly when jumping ‘too well’ and coming down on landing 5 out lto. He’ll be chucked in if he can run to near his Hennessy form with jockey on board.
#68
April 14th, 2010 14:01
When your lucks out it really is out. Having had a disastrous National, I decided to put what little money I’d got for placed horses on Retainer at Newmarket, being pretty sure it was a nailed on certainty. Got to the bookies just as the race was over. Had forgotten to change the clock in the car and was an hour out.
#69
April 14th, 2010 15:55
Oh nooooooo. Do a couple of good ew bets this weekend in the SN.
#70
April 14th, 2010 17:19
hello again guys
please tell me ime dreaming ?is this a nightmare is erics charm running again ?/ lol
#71
April 14th, 2010 17:22
did your horses win though maureen ??
#72
April 14th, 2010 17:28
Ive read somewhere Erics Charm will run at its beloved Sandown in the Bet 365 Cup….unless the word “firm” is mentioned in the going.I guess the horse will be fresh and falling at the first hurdle at Aintree.
#73
April 14th, 2010 17:30
Hmmm that should say fresh after falling…..not fresh and falling.
#74
April 14th, 2010 19:35
Im a big fan of backing horses returning to races where they have run well before.
Gone To Lunch is 8lb lower than his 2nd last year. GTL was 5th in the Hennessy this season when 11lb higher too.
He WILL stay, he is very well handicapped and he is good enough to win.
How many others can we say that about?
Ok he’s been garbage since xmas, but ‘horses for courses’….
#75
April 14th, 2010 19:47
can GTL really be trusted? he looks totally out of love with the game. I’d be hoping the headgear was back on to spark some improvement
#76
April 14th, 2010 20:12
Retainer did win mr frisk; awful price, though!
#77
April 15th, 2010 00:55
I agree Daniel that, at the weights, Gone To Lunch looks like the one to take out of last year’s race.
Assuming a reproduction of last year’s run he forms a handicapping benchmark, a yardstick. We’d have to make a case that something else was plus of 8lb well in to beat GTL.
Making a comparison of Hennessy form and adjusting for current OR this is what I got
09 GTL 151 -13 1/4 140 [-2 1/4]
08 AF1 153 -3 146 [+4]
06 IT 144 -30 127 [-13]
So at the SN weights we might suggest Air Force One is better in.
Two points though. Whilst both 08 and 09 Hennessy’s were run on GS, the 09 time was 10 seconds or so faster suggesting it might have been a stronger renewal. And – as it does appear (from last years SN 2nd) that GTL gets 4m yes, a Hennessy 5th over an inadequate trip (‘outpaced from 3 out’)looks like very good form.
But – if Air Force One might also prove to be a 4 mile horse!?
It looks to me as if there’s a strong chance it is. But Bauer you say it’ll go to Sandown for the Bet365?
On your general point about class Bauer,I agree entirely. Of course in any handicap class is relativised by weight. So we’re not looking for class per se but for which horse is the best handicapped in the context of all the conditions of the race including rating and trip. And in extreme staying races, Nationals, for me, especially, but not exclusively – trip.
I know you know that – I’m just explaining that I do too
What I’m doing with the group of runners previously untried at 4m is assesing which might be well in given they look likely to improve for the step up. Any unlikely to stay 4m I can eliminate.
Do I think Meanus Dandy in excess of 8lb well in? I think I probably do. How much well in?, better in than Air Force One, if it shows up? Better in than the others at the top end of my ‘unexposed’ list? I don’t know yet. That’s the really difficult, and therefore fascinating, part of private handicapping.
By 3.25 on Saturday – well hopefully before – I’ll have decided.
—-
Does anyone know of a blog like this one for the flat? I do like the 2000 Guineas. This is my favourite time of the year racingwise.
#78
April 15th, 2010 06:46
I know Killyglen has top weight, but he looked like he was going to be very very classy last term.
Hasnt had his ground once yet this season (clearly NEEDS good ground) so could run well on Saturday.
What’s the record of second season chasers like?
#79
April 15th, 2010 12:17
At 48 hour stage
Killyglen
Halcon Genelardais
Razor Royale
Gone To Lunch
Mobaasher
Faasel
Montero
Theatrical Moment
Auroras Encore
Poker De Sivola
That´s Rhythm
Gidam Gidam
Out The Black
Himalayan Trail
Superior Wisdom
Chiaro
Ma Yahab
Meanus Dandy
Dom D´Orgeval
Merigo
Lothian Falcon
According To John
Present M´Lord
Idle Talk
Lorum Leader
Scots Dragoon
Cleni Boy
Western Gale
No Panic
Craiglands
Fine By Me
#80
April 15th, 2010 12:20
What are your thoughts on FASSEL? He’s run 3 times at Ayr. Nice Chel run on Gd. Will he stay?
#81
April 15th, 2010 12:25
FAASEL, sorry.
#82
April 15th, 2010 12:32
Hey Guys back on board! Just needed a bit of space from the blog after Sat. However am really pleased to GENUINELY report that Sat’s results has taught me so much and my approach for GN 2011 is totally rejigged and altered to go with the new flow but I am TOTALLY UNDAUNTED for 2011 – bring it on!!
Nice to see the loyal gang back on this thread trying to solve the Scottish puzzle. You’re all a great bunch and mean so much to me. Thanks to Admin too.
The thing I love about the Scottish is it really is a mixed bag of winners and placers, more like the GN,rather than the Irish.
Will post thoughts up soon.
#83
April 15th, 2010 12:58
Good to see you back Showlad.
#84
April 15th, 2010 13:20
I really liked the look of Faasel at first, but he was a 2 mile horse in his younger days. Was very eye catching at Cheltenham and I made a note to myself to watch out for him. Mind you, a certain Don’t Push It was a 2 mile horse in his younger days wasn’t he!?
#85
April 15th, 2010 13:35
Paddy and Bet 365 both paying 5 places now..
#86
April 15th, 2010 13:37
That was also his first time out after a 9 month lay off, so maybe not as good as I first thought. Good come back though all the same.
#87
April 15th, 2010 13:39
Hello Showlad,nice to see you back.
#88
April 15th, 2010 13:41
Thanks Whitearab and Corum
#89
April 15th, 2010 13:43
OK just as a little pointer..I’ll open up a Top 6 Tipster for the Scottish National.
Usual scenario: 6 points for your top rating and down to 1 point for 6th rated horse.
Will help maybe give us a collective picture.
Anyone is welcome to kick us off…
#90
April 15th, 2010 14:29
Thanks Showlad..Just waiting for the off!
Six Points :Ma Yahab (1/1)
Five Points:Gone to Lunch(1/1)
Four Points:According to John(1/1)
Three Points:Chiaro(1/1)
Two Points:Auroras Encore(1/1)
One Point:Scots Dragoon(1/1)
Think Ma Yahab has the ability to stay on past the speedier types.Gets away well from fences.
#91
April 15th, 2010 14:32
Gidam seems to be coming in on Betdaq and Betfair,compared to the bookies.Could be nothing.
#92
April 15th, 2010 14:39
OK Simon kicks off – thanks!
Showlad’s Top 6:
6 POINTS GIDAM GIDAM
5 POINTS GONE TO LUNCH
4 POINTS HIMALAYN TRAIL
3 POINTS POKER DI SIVOLA
2 POINTS MERIGO
1 POINT OUT THE BLACK
SCOTTISH NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE:
GONE TO LUNCH 10 POINTS (2/2)
GIDAM GIDAM 6 POINTS (1/2)
MA YAHAB 6 POINTS (1/2)
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 4 POINTS (1/2)
ACCORDING TO JOHN 4 POINTS (1/2)
POKER DI SIVOLA 3 POINTS (1/2)
CHIARO 3 POINTS (1/2)
MERIGO 2 POINTS (1/2)
AURORA’S ENCORE 2 POINTS(1/2)
OUT THE BLACK 1 POINT (1/2)
SCOTS DRAGOON 1 POINT (1/2)
#93
April 15th, 2010 15:17
This is the type of race full of higher weighted horses badly out of form and lower weighted slightly exposed horses that shouts out NO BET (NAP!).
However the jumps season will soon be over so I will wade in at some point.
At this stage these would be my four against the field – all with biggish question marks:
That’s Rhythm from last year (backed by me last year and ran well until falling, although seemed to be in better form coming into the race a year ago)
Dom D’Orgeval (thrown in on old form if he stays – not sure about dam’s side of the family – more research required)
Montero (potential improver over a trip – mark might be a little high but this is a terrible race)
Superior Wisdom (well-in on best of hurdles form but v inexperienced over fences)
#94
April 15th, 2010 16:05
I fail to see the point of asking everyone on here to give points to horses. Pick your likeliest winner(s) and explain why, that way the race is discussed, rather than endlessly posting up tables full of names and numbers that actually obscure the race discussion.
Pablo, Superior Wisdom I like also, his hurdles form was very decent in the context of this race, and seems to retain some ability, despite the mistake lto.
#95
April 15th, 2010 16:13
has to be faasel for me was steaming home last time and is carrying about 8lb less meanus dandy has only ever done well recently in less than 10k class 3 and 4 races cant see why the horse is vying for being favourite ??
#96
April 15th, 2010 17:31
Gidam Gidam because he stays and it’s good to see the trainer with possibly his best horse since Wigtown Bay. Chiaro because of the Hobb’s factor and the fact that he was placed last year and is now a year older [although I have taken on board the point about flat breds maturing early and then not improving; will watch out for that in future]. Merigo, again because he stays, has been aimed at the race and Timmy always rides even better than usual for his in laws! And Ma Yahab because we were standing next to Harry Challoners sister at Cheltenham and I thought at the time how nice it would be for him to win a big race. Difficult to ignore the Jonjo/Mccoy form at the moment but easier to ignore the Paul Nicholls short priced one [watch him hose up now!]. Would love to see Gone to Lunch win for connections [although would have loved even more to see The Chief win]. Can’t ignore a Nicky Henderson raid up north, but never think of him as a trainer of staying chasers. Can’t see Faasel staying. And as I have never had any luck whatsoever in this race I don’t expect to do anything but lose all my money on Saturday! It would be nice to go out with a bandg and not a whimper, though……My biggest tip would be for everyone to avoid like the plague the four horses I’ve backed…..
#97
April 15th, 2010 17:33
go out with a bandg [sp]; looks horribly like bandage..meant bang……
#98
April 15th, 2010 18:25
Hi gang.
Top six on trends-
AURORAS ENCORE
MERIGO
DOM DORGEVAL
LOTHIAN FALCON
SCOTS DRAGOON
NO PANIC
Good luck.
#99
April 15th, 2010 18:41
Amended
AURORAS ENCORE
MERIGO
LOTHIAN FALCON
MONTERO
SCOTS DRAGOON
NO PANIC
Good luck.
#100
April 15th, 2010 18:56
6 POINTS AURORAS ENCORE
5 POINTS PRESENT MLORD
4 POINTS KILLYGLEN
3 POINTS NO PANIC
2 POINTS YA MAHAB
1 POINT POKER DE SIVOLA
SCOTTISH NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE:
GONE TO LUNCH 10 POINTS (2/2)
MA YAHAB 8 POINTS (2/3)
AURORA’S ENCORE 8 POINTS(2/3)
GIDAM GIDAM 6 POINTS (1/2)
PRESENT MLORD 5 POINTS (1/3)
KILLYGLEN 4 POINTS (1/3)
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 4 POINTS (1/2)
ACCORDING TO JOHN 4 POINTS (1/2)
POKER DI SIVOLA 4 POINTS (2/3)
CHIARO 3 POINTS (1/2)
NO PANIC 3 POINTS (1/3)
MERIGO 2 POINTS (1/2)
OUT THE BLACK 1 POINT (1/2)
SCOTS DRAGOON 1 POINT (1/2)
#101
April 15th, 2010 19:49
Am I right in thinking that Peter Bowen is travelling all the way up there with just the one horse; No Panic?
#102
April 15th, 2010 20:01
Yes Maureen, just checked RP and the only runner he has on Saturday is No Panic.
#103
April 15th, 2010 20:07
July last year he beat over 2m 6f Always Waining. Always Waining gave him 12lbs though. He will go on the ground.
#104
April 15th, 2010 20:15
Hmmmmm……
#105
April 15th, 2010 20:21
Hang on though, the next time out Always Waining beat him, and No Panic PU. Since then he has been running in lower class races???
#106
April 15th, 2010 20:25
Right the scottish national, keep an eye on my selections, given my track record one will fall at the first, all bar one of the rest will come nowhere and the remaining one will win.
At least that’s what happened in Grey Abbey’s year backed two horses simply supreme (fell at 1st) and Grey Abbey (1st past post).
Then I did it again two years ago this time I’d backed three horses, first one was first ones to fall, I don’t know what happened to the other and of course Iris De Balme which I took an early morning price of 100/1. Had £2.50 each way on him. I can’t take the credit for finding that one though as it was a tip from my racing paper, Andrew Barr tipped it.
Right enough memory lane let crack this one will the RPR should give some clue most have the best RPR of the season the race before or the penultimate race before the scottish national.
This fact will see off Gone to Lunch who has deteriorate with each run (if the RPR figures are to be believed).
Mobaasher, Auroras Encore, That’s Rythmn, Out the Black, Chiaro, Ma Yahab, Merigo, Lothian Falcon , According To John, Lorum Leader, Western Gale & Craiglands must also go on same grounds.
On breeding ground any Presenting and Accordion prodigy must go because I’d don’t think they see out this trip in this company, desapite presenting only 4 miler in the race (Present M’ Lord, who won a class 3 at Exeter).
This see off Killyglen, Present M’ Lord, Fine By Me.
This leaves us with Halcon Genelardais, Razor Royale, Faasel, Montero, Theatical Moment, Poker De Sivola, Gidam Gidam, Himalayan Trail, Superior Wisdom, Meanus Dandy, Dom D’ Orgeval, Idle Talk, Scots Dragoon, Cleni Boy, No Panic.
Using Dosage to rank them I go for and my own opinions.
6 points Scots Dragoon
5 points Razor Royale
4 points Theatrical Moment
3 points Gidam Gidam
2 points Poker De Sivola
1 point Himalayan Trail.
Will add to table a little later on.
#107
April 15th, 2010 20:44
Auroras Encore is the one that keeps jumping out at me. Looked back at his win at the track on Grand national day last season and he had them beat a long way out, looked to enjoy the fences and his prominent racing style is always a bonus around Ayr.
One query – is he good enough?
Listed winner over hurdles at Aintree so he is obviously no mug but is he good enough for a race of this nature?
#108
April 15th, 2010 20:44
6 Poker De Sivola
5 Merigo
4 Mobaasher
3 Gone To Lunch
2 Theatrical Moment
1 Killyglen
Including everyone up to Neil:
14PTS AURORA’S ENCORE (3/6)
13PTS GONE TO LUNCH (3/6)
12PTS POKER DI SIVOLA (4/6)
12PTS MERIGO (3/6)
9PTS SCOTS DRAGOON (3/6)
9PTS GIDAM GIDAM (2/6)
8PTS MA YAHAB (2/6)
6PTS THEATRICAL MOMENT (2/6)
5PTS PRESENT MLORD (1/6)
5PTS RAZOR ROYALE (1/6)
5PTS HIMALAYAN TRAIL (2/6)
5PTS KILLYGLEN (2/6)
4PTS ACCORDING TO JOHN (1/6)
4PTS LOTHIAN FALCON (1/6)
4PTS NO PANIC (2/6)
4PTS MOBAASHER (1/6)
3PTS CHIARO (1/6)
1PTS OUT THE BLACK (1/6)
#109
April 15th, 2010 20:47
Thanks Irish Raider.
#110
April 15th, 2010 20:53
Mr Yahab 6pts
razor royal 5pts
scots dragoon 4pts
merigo 3pts
kilyglen 2pts
gidam gidam 1pt
#111
April 15th, 2010 21:19
I concur with what you say about Presentings Neil S.
Being a contrary sort I set out to find some Presentings that have won at 4m+ but I’m damned if I can find a single one.
Except Present M’Lord. So I had a look at it’s win. Sure enough it was a dour race. The 6 finishers had longest trip victories going into the race of 3m2f; 3m3f; no win; 2m6f; 3m4f and 3m. So a staying race with no proven stayers. Something had to win. Unlike this race where there are several proven 4m+ stayers so the winner can definitely said to be a proper National horse, you just can’t say that about Present M’Lord’s Exeter win. It’s an anomoly – a bum stat – a bad race.
Here’s why Presenting doesn’t get National types despite having Busted on the sire’s side.
It’s sire is Mtoto (by Busted) but Mtoto’s dam has only moderate stamina. Presenting’s dam is a Persian Bold/Riverman. A nice pedigree for a 1m/1m2f flat horse! And on the jumps side neither of those sires produce extreme stayers. So Presenting is one/ one and a half parts extreme stamina; two/two and a half parts a balance between speed and stamina.
To properly get 4m and be a National type you need more extreme stamina in your bloodline than that.
Hence why Presentings routinely get 3m2f, some up to 3m4f but usually not further.
So, with Neil S, I’ll just put a line through the 4 Presentings including Present M’Lord.
#112
April 15th, 2010 21:26
New table including old cider.
15 points Merigo 4 out of 7
14 points Aurora’s Encore 3 out of 7
14 points Ma Yahab 3 out of 7
13 points Gone To Lunch 3 out of 7
13 points Scots Dragoon 4 out of 7
12 points Poker De Sivola 4 out of 7
10 points Gidam Gidam 3 out of 7
10 points Razor Royale 2 out of 7
7 points Killyglen 3 out of 7
6 points Theatrical Moment 2 out of 7
5 points Present M’ Lord 1 out of 7
5 points Himalayan Trail 2 out 7
4 points According To John 1 out 7
4 points Lothian Falcon 1 out of 7
4 points No Panic 1 out of 7
4 points Mobaasher 1 out of 7
3 points Chairo 1 out of 7
1 point Out The Black 1 out of 7
#113
April 15th, 2010 21:29
I’m still trying to work out how trainers campaign horses in handicaps. It’s quite fascinating sometimes to dig out old racecards and see what happened to the younger horses in them. As I was attempting to tidy up my desk tonight I came across the 2008 Grand National. The race before that was the 3mile h’cap hurdle. In that race was Don’t Push It; Buena Vista;Henessy; Dream Alliance and….Auroras Encore. Given that since that race we have a Whitbread, Welsh National and Grand National winner, could it also contain a Scottish National winner also?
#114
April 15th, 2010 21:40
Vimto, on dosage presenting prodigies should stay, however since it was pointed out to me on the national blog somewhere I began to take notes on presenting prodigy and noticed the lack of stamina beyond 3.25 miles. Finally with the ill fated Coe and Niche Market I came to the conclusion they don’t stay a trip of 4 miles and beyond in a true run top class race.
I do know that Wogan is also a presenting prodigy that beat Coe in the race he died in and Denman.
In fact if Denman was entered in next years national and you’ve a betting exchange account I recommend laying it.
#115
April 15th, 2010 22:02
Vimto, since discovering Presenting I’d asked around and Accordion is another bad sire for stayers, since you explained presenting so well, what’s your opinion on Accordion
#116
April 15th, 2010 22:12
Auroras Encore people are saying.
Personally I can’t see that winning if it started now.
No Second Empire has won beyond 3m1f. There’s a bit of stamina in the dam’s sire Rainbow Quest. But it doesn’t appear in the roster of the GN or SN. No extreme stamina on the bottom line either. Decidely not a National type.
People have been looking at AE’s Ayr win over 3m1f last April. A sensible place to look as that’s it’s furthest tried. Run on good, the time was 18.5 secs slower than standard. The beaten horses – all 6 of them – were ‘outpaced’ 4 out. The time, the fact the leader was ‘not fluent’ and the outpacing all suggests a slow pace off which AE quickened winning the race with a burst of speed, the remainder being tapped for tactical toe.
Not, on my reading, evidence of stamina. But of speed.
Next time up AE refused. I don’t like horses that refuse. Then it was sent back hurdling. Ok Harvey Smith is as good as any at fixing a reluctant jumper but the fact remains – it’s being asked to do things it wasn’t born to do. Not really a chaser. Certainly not a 4 mile chaser.
#117
April 15th, 2010 22:39
I’m glad you’ve said that; I was talking myself into backing it until I saw quite a few f’s and the one r at the start of the year.
#118
April 15th, 2010 22:49
vimto, or anyone, thoughts on Razor Royale? He is by some way the best 3 miler on the field. With Sam on board he is running off a weight which arguably makes him the best weighted in the field. He was high on my list for THE grand national, in which he would have been the best handicapped in the field (on numbers), following his RP Chase win.
I’ve no idea if he’ll stay effectively, but carrying only 2lbs more weight than GTL – he’s a better horse than GTL – he’s handicapped to win this?
#119
April 15th, 2010 23:45
Taken 33s e/w with Magic Sign about Montero
Good ground essential & could improve considerably for the step up in trip, plus novices have a reasonable record in this & good trainer and jockey combo
#120
April 16th, 2010 00:29
Thanks Neil.
Yes, Accordion. I can’t find any 4m+ progeny. My data is by no means exhaustive so if anyone knows of any do please let us know.
There have been a few Accordions that connections figured might be extreme stayers but as of yet none have proved to be.
Cornish Sett was 2nd in the Welsh National then failed to stay in the GN. Other Accordions trying the GN unsuccessfully – Darkness, Billyvoddan, Character Building.
There is a National type bloodline on Accordion’s dam’s side but it’s sire is Saddlers Wells. Saddlers Wells doesn’t yet appear in the roster of SN or GN.
As many of you will know, Saddlers Wells is the major sire on the flat for imparting a combination of class and stamina. For flat horses. Possibly why Accordion can get classy jumpers like Dato Star or Flagship Uberalles.
I don’t think I absolutely rule out Accordion getting a National type but it’s perhaps unlikely. I’d need to see all the right type of lines on the dam’s side.
According to John has The Parson as dam’s sire (Damsire of Young Kenny 1999, Sire of Killone Abbey 1991) and Random Shot as granddam’s sire (granddam of Run For Paddy 2006). So I wouldn’t rule it out. I’ve not yet looked at it’s form but I will.
Fine By Me is an awful long way out of the handicap but on the dam’s side has Furry Glen (damsire of Comply Or Die)/ Tarqogan (damsire of RhymenReason, granddam sire of Belmont King 1997) / Arctic Time (common roots with Rough Quest, Miinnehoma, Take Control 2002, Moorcroft Boy 1996).
Of course whether they’ll stay or not isn’t the only factor.
Ah – we didn’t actually need to know about Fine By Me’s breeding – it has been 2nd over 3m7f. So I think we can say it stays an extreme trip. They you go – an Accordion stayer.
It’s form profile is a little bit unusual. OR of 109 in Apr 08, it slipped back to 94 by this December – a mark off which it’s set up a 3 from 4 winning sequence (including beating Scots Dragoon). It would need to find continued improvement to have any chance. And at 11? Wind op? Late developer? Probably it just became well handicapped but no longer is – even if it were running off it’s correct mark. So on balance I can’t fancy it at the weights.
#121
April 16th, 2010 01:13
Yes, According To John looks quite well handicapped to me.
It’s only one pound out of the handicap and after it’s Royal and Sun Alliance 3rd to Denman was rated 140.
Therafter I don’t get the impression of a horse in decline but one crying out for a step up in trip. Nearly always has outpaced or stayed on in it’s comments.
The question is how much further than 3 miles it needs. I think 3m4f/3m6 perhaps but my impression – it’s conjectural of course – is that 4 miles is just a bit too far for it.
#122
April 16th, 2010 02:40
Razor Royale is by Oscar.
Oscar is a little similar to Accordion in that it’s a Sadlers Wells with a bit of Grand National(ish) bloodline on the dam’s side.
The only 4m Oscar I’ve found is Tricky Trickster. Who’s damsire is Montelimar (Sire of Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass)
Razor Royale’s damsire is Strong Gale. Who doesn’t appear in the roster of GN or SN.
I found an Oscar/Strong Gale called Mattock Ranger that won at 3m4f. Just about the only 3m4f Oscar. The grand dam traces back to Right Royal (Grandsire of Party Politics and Miinnehoma and great grandsire of Lord Gyllene) and to Ballymoss (on the dam’s side of Seagram and Bindaree).
To get an extreme trip an Oscar needs to have some National Type bloodlines on the dam’s side.
Razor Royale – doesn’t.
#123
April 16th, 2010 03:52
To correct an error I made earlier – Sadlers Wells does of course appear on the GN roster. As sire of Old Vic.
The reason, for me, why Old Vic is proving to be an effective sire of extreme stayers (when bred with the right kind of broodmare) is that it has Vimy (the damsire of Busted)as it’s grand damsire.
Neither Accordion nor Oscar have anywhere near as strong an indication for extreme stamina on their dam’s side.
Consider Sadlers Wells on the flat. It throws classy 1m4f types by the bucketload. But not, typically, stayers. That moderate, middle distance stamina when translated into the jumps arena generally needs to be married to influences for extreme stamina in all remaining 3 corners of a pedigree to create a National type.
Unlike Old Vic, Oscar and Accordion’s dams aren’t laden with enough extreme stamina to compensate for Sadlers Wells’ lack of extreme stamina.
So even if you mate Oscar or Accordion to a mare with a perfect National type profile, the progeny will remain a short runner at 4m+.
#124
April 16th, 2010 06:36
Thanks for the information ,vimto. Plan to conduct my own investigation into positive and negative sires for extreme distances soon.
An idea which occurred to me when Admin put the thread up what sires we need to be looking for to win the national and I gave the reply Old Vic who sired Don’t Push It.
I said old Vic though because I’d fancied Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi & Comply Or Die in the race.
I know the Dam is also partly responsible for stamina ( or lack of it) but I want to keep my finding simple and group each runner by its sire.
#125
April 16th, 2010 09:25
Neil
Slightly out of date but some interesting background to Old Vic (by the way quite a few now wear headgear – COD, BA, VV, Our Vic – but not DPI)
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/racing-old-vic-keeps-sadlers-wells-in-the-hunt-465220.html
Old Vic offspring have recorded 2 wins and 2 seconds from 12 attempts in GN from only 7 horses (COD & BA have 6 of those attempts between them)
Comply Or Die 1st, 2nd, 12th
Chelsea Harbour 9th, F
Mr Pointment P
Black Apalachi F, U, 2nd
Southern Vic 8th
Don’t Push It 1st
Vic Venturi U
#126
April 16th, 2010 09:57
Vimto
“Neither Accordion nor Oscar have anywhere near as strong an indication for extreme stamina on their dam’s side.”
That would appear to be the case with Accordion but Oscar’s damsire is Reliance (Chef-de-Race for stayer and professional)
I think the jury is out on Oscar – Tricky Trickster won the 4-miler showing stamina and is still only 7, sadly we’ll never know about Casey Jones, although Oscar Time has Supreme Leader (Busted – legendary GN influence) and Menelek (GN sire of Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy) on his dam’s side
#127
April 16th, 2010 10:21
Vimto
I enjoy reading your analysis but I think you have to be careful making such generalisations that are potentially misleading:
“Consider Sadlers Wells on the flat. It throws classy 1m4f types by the bucketload (including Old Vic!). But not, typically, stayers.”
Kayf Tara 2 Ascot Gold Cups
Yeats 4 Ascot Gold Cups
Both sons of Saddler’s Wells and multiple Group 1 winners over 2 miles 4 furlongs
#128
April 16th, 2010 12:52
Excellent points well made Pablo and thanks for that most interesting link.
Your flat stayer examples are why I entered the caveat ‘typically’. Kayf Tara and Yeats will be getting their extreme stamina from the dam’s side.
Consider Sadlers Wells awd (average winning distance of sires progeny) on the flat – 11.3. Quite substantial but far from the biggest.
My point really is that when we’re looking for extreme stamina horses over the jumps Sadlers Wells, by itself, is not an influence for extreme stamina. It needs propping up on the dam’s side.
That seems borne out by Sadlers Wells itself as a jump’s sire. Typically got classy hurdlers such as Istabraq, Covent Garden. But not, I don’t think, any extreme stayers. I could be wrong about that as I’ve not updated my database.
On Oscar,I haven’t found any Reliance popping up in the pedigrees of GN winners. It’s dam – Relance is on the damside of Party Politics. And that one’s sire – Relic crops up on the damside of Royal Athlete, Earth Summit and Silver Birch.
That’s the sort of association I have in mind when I say ‘Grand National(ish) type bloodlines’.
So it seems to me that Oscar’s dam’s side has less claim than Old Vic’s to prop up the Sadlers Wells line in the way required to beget National types.
I don’t say Oscar could never sire a GNational winner but I’d need to see it mated to a very strong dam with all the right National bloodlines.
I think it’s a pity Tricky Trickster seemed scared to death over the whole National experience. I’d highlighted for myself the Montelimar (another who traces back to Wild Risk with the Busteds) cross with Menelek.
It was very interesting to read in the article you linked about how Old Vic imparts a strong, rugged temperament. But then we really are getting into detail.
Most enjoyable discussing with you.
I’d be interested to discuss dosage further on a theoretical level but here isn’t the place. We’d stray too far off topic. Is there a dosage forum? Just really briefly I think there’s a fundamental flaw in how the tool was put together. So far I’ve not found it any use in analysising the Derby or the St Leger. Which are the types of races you’d think it might help with.
#129
April 16th, 2010 13:05
Just realised I’ve contradicted myself between last night and today about Oscar
. So I guess I’m agreeing with you Pablo – that the jury is out. I guess on balance I’m slightly less hopeful for it than you are.
#130
April 16th, 2010 13:08
Vimto
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2010/grand-national-2010-sires-who-should-we-look-for/
I guess that would be the place to discuss dosage, breeding etc on this forum
I will put a post up there
And I agree we are straying off Scottish GN – apologies Admin
#131
April 16th, 2010 17:23
I’ve just had a bet on No Panic. After backing so many horses that I thought would win the Grand National it’s quite therapeutic[sp] to back one that has no chance whatsoever!
#132
April 16th, 2010 17:27
Maureen, the panal on the RP forum says he is an intersesting runner. Maybe ew, I had a very tiny ew on him : )
#133
April 16th, 2010 19:00
Superior Wisdom; the race I was talking about earlier at Aintree..this horse came second to Forest Pennant..beat Don’t Push It, Hennessy, Dream Alliance, Buena Vista, According to John and Auroras Encore that day. Has been off the track for two years. OK, most of them were giving him @ 5 lbs and I don’t know how far behind him they were. Don’t recognise any of the horses in his breeding. Re No Panic..has enough UR’s and PU’s this season to make me feel quietly confident of a good run!!!!
#134
April 16th, 2010 19:57
Maureen, good luck with your bet, feel you’re need it.
I feel that it has been over raced this season,
his season’s form reads:
9th May 4th RPR 123
26th May RO RPR —
7th June 2nd RPR 124
21st June 1st RPR 131
2nd July 3rd 3rd RPR 130
18th July 3rd RPR 131
22nd August PU RPR —
11th September 5th RPR 106
23rd October 2nd RPR 110
17th November 4th RPR 117
9th December PU RPR —
19th January 3rd RPR 122
29th January PU RPR —
15th March 1st RPR 124
26th March 3rd RPR RPR 117
something like 15 runs (unless I’ve miscounted) and his best RPR figures being June and July I think the price reflects his chance, if you can get it on at a bookies paying fifth place it might be worth each way, but not for me.
#135
April 16th, 2010 20:13
It will be interesting to see how that horse Western something or other does. Beautiful looking horse but by Presenting with Strong Gale as a damsire. One does wonder if trainers study pedigrees at all?
#136
April 16th, 2010 20:48
OK, best ew bets?
Mine Faasel and Meringo. Faasel for his last run and Meringo for his Ayr runs, time of year, jockey combination.
#137
April 16th, 2010 21:29
Apologies to Pablo and Bauer who mentioned Superior Wisdom earlier. I didn’t take in what you’d said about the horse until I looked into it myself.
#138
April 16th, 2010 22:23
I see they’re going to omit a few fences due to the dodgy ground. Which horses will that suit?
#139
April 16th, 2010 22:31
hey chums! just popping in to say hello
to enjoy aircraft free airspace! after a boeing free lie in! heres to volcanoes long may they continue to emit great power over those that think they run the show!
I’ve had a quick look at the card and on here.
I have gone for nothing unusual in a bid to win back some money, and like Mobaasher and Faasel. May have Merigo too by tmw, as he does like Ayr.
Not even going to see the race tmw as going out in the sun,
#140
April 16th, 2010 23:56
Maureen – don’t apologise – you gave your reasons and that’s the most important thing – I wish everyone else would rather than listing the points awarded and simply leaving it at that
#141
April 17th, 2010 01:38
With 19 of the 30 runners untried at 4 miles the ‘will it stay’ question is all over the race like a rash.
Using the factors I outlined earlier in the week, the following table is my assessment of the % chance of the untried runners staying 4 miles today.
It’s conjecture of course but that’s racing. The figures aren’t an exact science – if I had time to go through it again I would probably adjust the figures but the general gist would remain the same.
Personally I rule out anything with a figure under 50.
Whilst I do believe getting the trip is perhaps the most significant single factor, it’s not, of course, the only factor. There’s also weight, going, plotting, etc, etc, etc.
Meanus Dandy 80
That’s Rhythm 78
Dom D’Orgeval 76
Montero 70
Scots Dragoon 65
Lorum Leader 60
Craiglands 60
Lothian Falcon 50
Killyglen 46
Western Gale 46
According to John 45
Faasel 42
Cleni Boy 32
Ma Yahab 32
Razor Royale 32
No Panic 25
Superior Wisdom 24
Theatrical Moment 20
Auroras Encore 10
#142
April 17th, 2010 02:21
My Top 6 for the Scottish National are:
Dom Dorgeval 6pts
Merigo 5pts
Mobaasher 4pts
Gone to Lunch 3pts
Merigo 2pts
Himalayan Trail 1pt
New table including.
22 points Merigo 6 out of 8
14 points Aurora’s Encore 3 out of 8
14 points Ma Yahab 3 out of 8
16 points Gone To Lunch 4 out of 8
13 points Scots Dragoon 4 out of 8
12 points Poker De Sivola 4 out of 8
10 points Gidam Gidam 3 out of 8
10 points Razor Royale 2 out of 8
7 points Killyglen 3 out of 8
6 points Theatrical Moment 2 out of 8
6 Points Dom Dorgeval 1 out of 8
5 points Present M’ Lord 1 out of 8
6 points Himalayan Trail 3 out 8
4 points According To John 1 out 8
4 points Lothian Falcon 1 out of 8
4 points No Panic 1 out of 8
8 points Mobaasher 2 out of 8
3 points Chairo 1 out of 8
1 point Out The Black 1 out of 8
#143
April 17th, 2010 03:24
My six against the field -
Dom D’Orgeval
Meanus Dandy
That’s Rhythm
Poker De Sivola
Himalayan Trail
Gone To Lunch
#144
April 17th, 2010 06:39
Bri
recheck your your six Merigo twice!
#145
April 17th, 2010 09:11
faasal 6
chario 5pts
poker de silva 4pts
theatrical moments 3pts
himalayan trail 2 pts
merigo 1 pt
#146
April 17th, 2010 09:42
present mlord 6 pts
auroras encore 5 pts
ma yahab 4 pts
poker de silva 3 pts
mobasher 2 points
dom d’ogeaval 1 pt
#147
April 17th, 2010 10:27
Not interested in points but have backed
That’s Rhythm, Merigo and Razor Royale.
Looks just as hard as the Aintree one to me so good luck all.
#148
April 17th, 2010 10:42
Of my original four I’m dropping That’s Rhythm and Superior Wisdom
Already backed Montero and added Dom D’Orgeval in the hope that he stays.
He’s got a great sire in Belmez (incidently beat Old Vic in the King George fwiw) but a bit worried about the stamina on the dam’s side.
Should he get the trip he’s very well-handicapped on best form and ran a good race at Aintree – Hello Bud won this 9 days after his last race and Joe’s Edge 7 days after, so the recent run doesn’t bother me.
Good luck with your bets.
#149
April 17th, 2010 10:50
Updating and correcting the scores, so that Bri only gives 5 points not 7 to Merigo and include Urk and Mr Frisk and Vimto (in the order written).
22 points Poker De Sivola (7 from 10)
21 points Merigo (5 from 10)
19 points Aurora’s Encore (4 from 10)
18 points Ma Yahab (4 from 10)
17 points Gone To Lunch (5 from 10)
13 points Scots Dragoon (4 from 10)
11 points Present M’ Lord (2 from 10)
11 points Himalayan Trail (5 from 10)*
10 points Mobaasher (3 from 10)
10 points Gidam Gidam (2 from 10)
9 points Theatrical Moment (3 from 10)
8 Points Chairo (2 from 10)
7 points Killyglen (3 from 10)
7 points Dom D’ Orgeaval (2 from 10)
6 points Faasel (1 from 10)
5 points Meanus Dandy (1 from 10)
4 points That’s Rhythm (1 from 10)
4 points According To John (1 from 10)
4 points Lothian Falcon (1 from 10)
4 points No Panic (1 from 10)
1 point Out The Black (1 from 10)
#150
April 17th, 2010 10:53
I give trail an extra point because bri gave merigo 2 votes, so dropped the second one and give HT his place and votes.
#151
April 17th, 2010 10:55
The popular choice is Poker both in points and mass. Although 10 votes is hardly conclusive.
He is the stat horse in my opinion though.
Good Luck with todays bets!
#152
April 17th, 2010 11:32
Well thanks to all for our Top Six Votes for the Scottish National.
Where you’ve had enough time thanks for your in depth reasoning and where you’ve had time to simply cast your fancies (or have reasoned elsewhere on thread) again thanks.
The main picture is that without the gruelling jumping test that the Aintree fences present separating the wheat from the chaff – many horses have tugged at your sleeve as having merit and potential to triumph at Ayr’s challenge and take over the crown from Hello Bud.
Undoubtedly the class act is Gone To Lunch, last year’s silver medallist – but with him so badly out of form and the brilliant Silver by Nature and Denman and in-form Chief Dan George all missing, our votes have an even sporadic spread.
For consistency though Poker Di Sivola gets the rare nod here of appearing in 70% of our votes and therefore is our worthy winner both on points but esepcially on consistent voting which is part of what the Top 6 Table seeks to identify.
As Bauer quite rightly points out, it’s a real difficult one, and it seems a year to bet frugally and take advantage of the each way 5 places on offer at many of the bookies.
Thanks again Neil and Irish Raider with table help.
Will be opening a TOP 6 table to help us gauge our fancies for the big close next Sat of the jumps season – The Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown.
Closing it at this point with 3 hours to the big race though feel free to vote and amend table further if you wish.
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE FINAL TABLE SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL 2010
22 points Poker De Sivola (7 from 10)
21 points Merigo (5 from 10)
19 points Aurora’s Encore (4 from 10)
18 points Ma Yahab (4 from 10)
17 points Gone To Lunch (5 from 10)
13 points Scots Dragoon (4 from 10)
11 points Present M’ Lord (2 from 10)
11 points Himalayan Trail (5 from 10)*
10 points Mobaasher (3 from 10)
10 points Gidam Gidam (2 from 10)
9 points Theatrical Moment (3 from 10)
8 Points Chairo (2 from 10)
7 points Killyglen (3 from 10)
7 points Dom D’ Orgeaval (2 from 10)
6 points Faasel (1 from 10)
5 points Meanus Dandy (1 from 10)
4 points That’s Rhythm (1 from 10)
4 points According To John (1 from 10)
4 points Lothian Falcon (1 from 10)
4 points No Panic (1 from 10)
1 point Out The Black (1 from 10)
#153
April 17th, 2010 11:35
For me the class of Gone To Lunch cannot be discounted on ground and a course he loves, so in case all things click back into place at the end of the season I have backed him.
Himalayan Trail was a hottie on here for the 2008 GN and since then has gone off the boil, but the 2008 Midlands Nat winner will enjoy the ground enough, has bags of stamina and is coming right back into form and along with the very interesting staying qualities and progressive potential of Gidam Gidam – these are my three against the field.
#154
April 17th, 2010 11:44
..And not forgetting my original fancy for the race..lol, seems so long ago now..Merigo..my 4 against the field:
Merigo
Himalayan Trail
Gidam Gidam
Gone to Lunch
#155
April 17th, 2010 12:17
Merigo at 25′s will do for me.Good luck everyone.
#156
April 17th, 2010 12:22
With you on that the Wackstreto
#157
April 17th, 2010 12:38
Good Luck all on the last National of 2010
It’s been an unusual year for us all – many of us seemed hotter on the quirky Irish than the actual GN whose winner had had some class runs but no big race stat, PU last time out and threw many of us.
But major adjustments to my system, as I suspect has also happened for many of you on here, have been made by me for GN 2011 and I look forward to it all with renewed eagerness for the challenge of the Greatest Horse Race in the world.
Good Luck Today!!
#158
April 17th, 2010 13:45
Well those Flat jocks certainly showed us there why we prefer the jumps!
#159
April 17th, 2010 14:08
We are due a 9 year old winner.
Merigo
and if not-
Montero
Poker
G.T.L.
P.M’Lord
#160
April 17th, 2010 14:08
Lol Pablo
I know..we’ll be bored rigid..er..I mean lost after the Bet 365..
#161
April 17th, 2010 14:19
I know Showlad – I only really like the Derby and York’s Ebor meeting on the flat
So most of the summer off and then back to Cheltenham for Paddy Power in November!
I think I need the summer off after the GN really.
#162
April 17th, 2010 14:31
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssss.GET IN MERIGO!!!!!!!!!!
#163
April 17th, 2010 14:31
#164
April 17th, 2010 14:32
At last the stats have worked!!! Happy days!!!
#165
April 17th, 2010 14:33
Well done everyone on Merigo.
#166
April 17th, 2010 14:34
Get in there Merigo!!! Thats the Welsh, Irish and Sottish Nash all wrapped up for me!!!! A nice pick-me-up from last week.
#167
April 17th, 2010 14:35
I didn’t pick it with stats
but well done if you did, getttt innnnnnnnnn 
#168
April 17th, 2010 14:37
GO THE TEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMM!!
Our collective 2nd choice
Back on form!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SHOWLAD back on form
From my 4 horses against a field of 30…1st and 2nd :
Irish National 1st, 2nd and 4th..
I hope this is matched in the 2011 GN lol
Well done ALL on Merigo and on ew returns.
Maureen you were on Don’t Panic ew I hope?
#169
April 17th, 2010 14:38
What a horse Merigo is. He was flying all the way. Finally got my money back that I lost in the Grand National. Rascal, your a legend. Thanks to you all.
#170
April 17th, 2010 14:38
Bauer you would have had Razor ew though yes?
#171
April 17th, 2010 14:44
showlad correct, forgot he’d stayed on to place was punching the air about the winner!
well done all
#172
April 17th, 2010 14:45
Thank goodness my scattergun approach worked this time; 1st and 3rd. Disappointed with Superior Wisdom; did he get brought down? Lost all confidence after last week. Phew!
#173
April 17th, 2010 14:47
Sorry for cocking up the votes last night.
Scots Dragoon should of been the horse i put down for 2 points.
Not to worry tho as i had a 1st, 2nd and 5th which equals a nice little pay day for me
#174
April 17th, 2010 14:59
YEEEEEEEESSSSSS !! english and scottish wins for me ive doubled merigo up with guess who ?? yep erics charm in the bet 365 lol
#175
April 17th, 2010 14:59
Im so glad i found this Blog,THANKS everyone who posted helpful blogs.I took Mobaasher and Merigo (both at 25/s) after reading a few blogs on here and also my gut feeling,also took GTL as my free £10 bet with Paddy Power,shame it was a win only bet.Still cant complain,im going to really enjoy the beers tonight,before the hard work starts on Monday…choosing a winner for the Bet 365 Cup
#176
April 17th, 2010 15:00
Well done all…back on form. That’s made up for last week!!
#177
April 17th, 2010 15:00
Well done to all trends followers! And Bauer
Easy wasn’t it for Merigo? Well plotted as they said.
If only I’d listened to myself…
“Pablo
April 12th, 2010 10:09
Scots & Irish Nationals should continue to provide profits for trends followers.”
And my nightmare continued with Dom D’Orgeval being edged out for 4th!
They say you learn from your mistakes – well I must be learning a lot from this April!
#178
April 17th, 2010 15:20
Well done team,I was on Merigo to.
#179
April 17th, 2010 16:00
Much respect to Rascal,Showlad,Wacky and the rest of the team.Many thanks.
#180
April 17th, 2010 16:10
Well done guys. Was on Merigo and Gone to Lunch e/w. Topped up my account nicely
#181
April 17th, 2010 16:59
Well done team – the winner and 2nd on the list. No good at Scots National myself (lost last two yars but not seriously put the work into it)so had a last minute bet on the top 5 in the list and took 16/1 on Merigo. So thats paid for the first big bet on the GN 2011 – many tanks.
Who says stats/trends work? Both the Irish National and Scots National were found at great prices on this site by a number of people – well done all (Showlad are you retiring in the sun now with all your winnings?).
#182
April 17th, 2010 17:03
On to the bet 365 gold cup and thats ones really hard – can the team do it again?
#183
April 17th, 2010 17:42
Was on Merigo at 25s too!!!! Thanks Rascal!!!
#184
April 17th, 2010 18:25
I have just come in and my father left an urgent message on my mobile to check my slip against the result.
Merigo fantastic,Razor Royal fab and Dom D’orgeval my god, I dropped.
Family lunch out tomorrow now.
Thanks you to all the team and admin.
Sometimes we win,sometimes we lose.
VIMTO, a lot of what you put down was very, very useful to me and my father Thank you for the time in writing it up.
Maureen well done after you bad luck early (although I did not think this horse had a chance! – father did and his slip 4 out of 5 horses)
#185
April 17th, 2010 18:57
It was interesting that Peter Bowen said something to the effect of ‘well, he’s 7 lb out of the handicap but that won’t be a problem…’ I’m so chuffed for everyone today, because last week was such a downer. It’s also so good to see the smaller trainers do well in races like this.
#186
April 17th, 2010 19:05
1st @ 25s
2nd @ 20s
5th @ 25s
All at bet365 ew!
So, stats/trends DO help!
Well done TEAM…Eric for the ‘Bet365′ anyone?
#187
April 17th, 2010 19:11
Trying the bet 365 next week, then a small break away from this forum ( a little R & R needed), well I have been on for a year. Tend to be back for September time ( around my birthday ), good luck everyone.
Going to be putting in some serious work on sires and which ones are good or bad for extreme distances (4 miles).
You can follow my progress if you want on The Racing Forum my pseudo name Red Rum 77.
Don’t want to hog this site up because I don’t know how long the work going to take.
#188
April 17th, 2010 20:38
Last year i was told that a horse called Dangerous Midge was a class act and little did i know that it would be part of a lovely double today with Merigo.Happy days.Oh and watch Hannon’s 2yr olds they are flying and they love a gamble.
#189
April 17th, 2010 21:30
I know; that’s why I was going to put all meagre National place winnings on Retainer! I’ve got another one to watch out for but he doesn’t seem to be running yet.
#190
April 17th, 2010 22:31
Well done guys thing everyone had at least a place and loads got the winner.
My record this year on the big nationals:
Welsh National: 1 selection, returned 2nd place 25/1
Irish National: 2 selections, returned 1st place 25/1
Scottish National: 2 selections, returned 1st place 20/1
English National: 5 selections, returned SOD ALL
I think I know where my resourses should concentrate in the future, stupid grand national.
#191
April 17th, 2010 23:15
Brody my big race outcomes much like yours..
Welsh 1
Irish 1, 2 & 4
Scots 1, 2 & 4
Chelts – well in profit
Aintree (rest of) – well in profit (thanks to Always Waining in the main)
GN – SOD ALL (except lil saver) and WHY? Because I didn’t go EW – had 2nd and 5th and would have done well. That’s the big change in the GN for me – the classier horses and the weights compression and EW is now the name of the game – NOT win betting.
Systemsman – no retirement yet, lol, my good wins have only made up for a v poor GN.
But first there is a little matter of Oslo. Had break for few days, but that email will be coming soon..this week defo and what an email it will be
Bet 365 – Eric totally comes to mind – though will he not prefer it a little softer than it may well be?
#192
April 17th, 2010 23:54
ADMIN – could you please post up a thread for the Bet 365 Gold Cup? Thanks
#193
April 18th, 2010 01:55
Well done to the many who had Merigo.
I am kicking myself
In that great bringer of all learning, hindsight, I was guilty from the get go of wanting to find another Don’t Push It, something unexposed at the trip.
In returning to the group with form at 4m+ and having three of those in my 6 I was edging away from the untrieds but I refused to let go.
Earlier in the week I’d given Ballyfoy a 95. Nothing else came close to that sort of figure. At least I followed my instinct (lack of any real excitement) about any of the untrieds in only having two token bets.
Had I let go the quest for another DPI and realised that globally there wasn’t a great deal of stamina in the race, I might have got beyond what I’m really kicking myself about – thinking Merigo might have too much stamina!
You had it right Bauer when you said ‘He’ll be at the front end, and.. others.. may not get past him.’
I noticed how, of the past winners that didn’t make all, many took it up at the 14th or 15th.
Taking it up at the 12th, Merigo just galloped the rest into submission exposing their relative lack of stamina.
So I’ve learnt to check myself if in a 4m+ race I start to thinking something might have too much stamina.
These are extreme trips and horses that truly stay this far are rare commodities.
I don’t think there would be much doubt at all that Merigo has every chance of now proving he stays 4m4f. Whether he would take to the race, manage the obstacles, in the Grand National we don’t know but what I take from the Murphy/Parker quote I posted earlier in the week is that Merigo has a brave and resolute character and certainly that would be another factor in his favour round Aintree.
#194
April 18th, 2010 02:12
I think I’ll repost what the trainer said after the Eider
Parker said: “The owner is a patriotic Scotsman so he will probably go up to Ayr for the Scottish Grand National but there is no reason why he shouldn’t be an Aintree horse next year’.
I think that was part of what put me off for this race. I took Parker to be saying to the effect – we’ll go to Ayr because the owner wants to but I’m more interested in it’s prospects at Aintree.
#195
April 18th, 2010 08:09
wonder where all the critics are gone now!?! couldnt land the big one, but have had a very good couple of months. Bet365 gold cup to cap it off? Lacdoudal?
#196
April 18th, 2010 08:44
hello contributors!
This is my first posting but i have been following the posting for a couple of months now. I would like to thank everyone for excellent work, it has been great to read and you all have made my life easier in narrowing down all three nationals. managed 1st in Irish 3rd/4th/5th/6th in GN and 1st/2nd in Scottish, i just wish i had the time to look into the races with as much detail as some of you! Thank again to everyone!
#197
April 18th, 2010 09:04
When looking up the full result of the race, I noticed that it seemed to be @ fence 15 that the stamina gave out in horses such as Western Gale [one to be noted in shorter races imo]. I think it was mentioned elsewhere that 3/4 past winners had winning form over 3m7f. Perhaps this is a race that puts even more emphasis on stamina than the National and perhaps less on class?? Exciting prospect, seeing Merigo over the Aintree fences next year. At least we know he’ll be pretty much aimed for it. Interesting to see if they put him in The Becher to gain some experience. So much to look forward to.
#198
April 18th, 2010 09:31
maureen – I’m really looking forward to the Becher race next season, with Denman looking very likely to go for the grand national, there could be a lot of horses in the Becher. A win for any horse in the Becher really shouldnt have much bearing on what weight they carry in the GN – its going to be such a key race
#199
April 18th, 2010 09:50
Can’t see Merigo doing terribly well in the Becher as it wouldn’t bring his stamina into play, but he would get to know the fences. Seeing Merigo jumping like a stag yesterday reminded me of old Grey Abbey and made me realise what an amazing weight carrying performance it was to win the Scottish.
#200
April 18th, 2010 11:16
Yes Maureen lots to look forward to.
I hope Denman does go forward for the GN – hope connections find it too hard to resist the thought of a fairytale peak to his career..
Admin can you throw up a thread for Bet 365 – thanks.
Think we’ve all truly learned some great new and hugely neccessary changes to make and adjust our style and tactics for betting for the Big One – roll on 2011.
Yes Team let’s try and end on a high with the Bet 365 Gold Cup
#201
April 18th, 2010 11:49
Sensational News re Grand National Blog Team’s 2010 success!!!! TOTALLY TOTALLY OVERLOOKED.
Hi Team have done some research on how our collective Top 12 from the GRAND NATIONAL 2010 TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE FINAL TABLE fared.
We’ve obviously selected very well on Grand National type horses with only 50% of our Top 12 unseating, falling or being pulled up, whereas in the race as a whole 65% suffered that fate.
Of the 6 of remaining horses from our Top 12 who were still standing – NOW GET THIS!!! – our 6 horses then filled 6 OF THE TOP 7 PLACES!!
A quality non stats fitting horse ridden brilliantly by AP actually won, but as I’ve posted earlier – if we accept the classier line up now and effects of the weight compression does give other horses SO much more of a chance and that the best style of betting is each way – we would have returned 4 EACH WAY WINS on 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Incredibly bad luck that our TOP 12 predicted 6 OF THE TOP 7 PLACES but not the winner – BUT STILL INCREDIBLE GOING AND…WELL DONE TEAM ON A BRILLIANT OVERALL RESULT!!!!
102 points Snowy Morning 26/35 OVERALL POINTS 300
CAME 6TH
94 points Arbor Supreme 24/35 OVERALL POINTS 252
UR
85 points Hello Bud 21/35 OVERALL POINTS 224
CAME 5TH
58 points Big Fella Thanks 14/35 OVERALL POINTS 130
CAME 4TH
49 points Eric’s Charm 16/35 OVERALL POINTS 122
FELL
48 points Niche Market 20/35 OVERALL POINTS 132
PU
47 points State Of Play 18/35 OVERALL POINTS 116
CAME 3RD
37 points Dream Alliance 11/35 OVERALL POINTS 123
PU
35 points Mon Mome 10/35 OVERALL POINTS 60
FELL
21 points Character Building 6/35 OVERALL POINTS 65
CAME 7TH
18 points Backstage 3/35 OVERALL POINTS 37
UR
17 points Black Apalachi 5/35 OVERALL POINTS 62
CAME 2ND
#202
April 18th, 2010 12:19
What happened to Faasel? I was out all day yesterday and missed the race. Our internet connection is so bad that it plays replays really jerkily, with no quality, and my video refused to record it. I missed what happened to him.
Good times though, thanks for all advice and trends placed here : ))
#203
April 18th, 2010 13:39
Faasel was pulled up.
Race comments are:
Not fluent on occasions, midfield, ridden and outpaced 6 out, tailed off when pulled up before 2 out.
Ridden by Tom Scudamore, hope it helps you Jackie.
#204
April 18th, 2010 13:53
Thats great news, Showlad, obvious those doubters who came out of the woodwork after the race failed to see this.
Lets not forget the winner should have been in the list too, only lower down as I omitted it in the final table, not on purpose though.
Next year I’d intend to be ready and miss nothing.
#205
April 18th, 2010 14:05
Ye Neil. We missed the winner and I think the field is so much classier now and the weights compression I feel means the ‘handicap’ has so much less clout and effect.
I think there will be so many ‘capable’ horses in 2011 that maybe a winner could come from left field again (though this is unlikely, I think 2010 was very much subject to the AP factor and well done him) and that is why our stats should still give us a great ew return.
I, like many on here, was mainly a ‘win’ man having won very well on Silver, Comply and Mon Mome in the last 3 years.
But we have to accept and move with the changes in the race and the key fundamental changes as I say are the class across the board and the weakening of the effect of the handicap – after Don’t Push It winning on 11-05 why not top weight next year?
2011 should be great and I hope you will drop in from time to time Neil after Sandown. Thanks for all your invaluable help this year
#206
April 18th, 2010 14:22
Thanks Neil.
#207
April 18th, 2010 14:51
Just back from a wild weekend in Edinburgh , watched the race in pub and was whooping it up with rest of lads as Merigo and GTL , filled the 1st 2 places , had a ball at night all thanks to RASCAL and Showlad , and many others so fantastic stuff , roll on the Bet 365 Gold Cup , woo hooo to all !!!!
#208
April 18th, 2010 18:08
Well said above TC – don’t see much here from the trend skeptics. Looks like lots of us had a good win on MERIGO. And hats off to those who stuck with GONE TO LUNCH – I just could not have him after recent runs.
#209
April 18th, 2010 21:03
Admin Bet365 Gold Cup page while we catch some of the team members who are hot hot hot at the moment. Decided to help out with this one and have been doing a little research. Great if we could finish with another win.
#210
April 19th, 2010 07:38
Hi guys!
Just wondering if/when a Bet365 Gold Cup thread will be opened?
CONGRATS to all those who profited from the SGN!!
#211
April 19th, 2010 11:20
Admin we are all waiting “Just wondering if/when a Bet365 Gold Cup thread will be opened?”
Showlad if Denman does run in the 2011 GN will you be backing him with others or taking him on – any early views?
#212
April 19th, 2010 11:53
Who is everyone looking at for the Bet365 Cup this year? Eric??
#213
April 19th, 2010 12:08
Notice there has just been quite a heavy change in odds for the Bet365 Cup. Betting is just starting to recommence through out all of the sites…
#214
April 19th, 2010 12:31
Hi all,
I will definitely open up a b365 thread this afternoon – been on leave so a few things to sort and then I will open that up for everyone
Thanks again
#215
April 19th, 2010 12:50
Brodie – Eric defo ew calims but may be a lil fast for a win for him.
Systems – I cannot see Denman winning over 4m – can you? Not keeping on feet too much these days never mind the GN fences. No, will not bet him as my main strategy will now be ew for GN.
#216
April 19th, 2010 13:34
Anyone fancy Hello Bud EW for the Bet365?
#217
April 19th, 2010 16:22
THANKS by the way Admin-much appreciated
#218
April 19th, 2010 18:10
Much as I’d love Eric to win no 12 year old has ever done so. Looking at Martys Mission and Alderburn at the moment. All of Martys Missions’ races seem to say ‘staying on at the end’, his owner said he was his bet of the meeting at Cheltenham [pu], his trainer has won it before. As for Alderburn, he just seems like the sort of horse that should have won a decent race at some point in his career. Likes good ground, seems to go ok right handed and Henry Dalys’ horses are running well at the moment. Funny old race these days; seems to finish a lot of horses off career wise. Does anyone know how Grand National runners tend to fare in this race? Got a feeling they don’t do very well.
#219
April 19th, 2010 18:19
Until the Bet 365 thread is up and running let me break down the stats on age:
In fifty years the has been 1 winner at 6yo , 9 winners at 7yo, 15 winners at 8yr, 13 winners at 9yo, 8 winners at 10yr and 4 winners at 11yr.
Breakdown
1960-1969
6yo=0, 7yo=3, 8yo=3, 9yo=2, 10yo=2, 11yo=0
1970-1979
6yo=0, 7yo=1, 8yo=6, 9yo=2, 10yo=0, 11yo=1
1980-1989
6yo=0, 7yo=2, 8yo=0, 9yo=4, 10yo=2, 11yo=1
1990-1999
6yo=0, 7yo=0, 8yo=3, 9yo=4, 10yo=2, 11yo=1
2000-2009
6yo=1, 7yo=3, 8yo=3, 9yo=1, 10yo=1, 11yo=1
The one six year old was by Martin Pipe, however the are no six year olds running this year.
In the entire history of the Bet 365 (or its various names) the as never been a winner older than 11.
If this was to continue then you can say goodbye to :
Monkerhostin,
Eric’s Charm,
Hello Bud,
Also at the rate of one winner a decade, I’am going to be bold and put a line through any 11 year olds too which means;
Church Island,
Lacdoudal,
Lothian Falcon,
Alderburn,
Irish Raptor,
Mr Pointment,
Oscar Park
Must be elimated, on a stats point of view.
#220
April 19th, 2010 18:19
maureen – just been looking through profiles of previous whitbread winners (Will post up stats when a thread is started)A lot have a very good record at Cheltenham, most importantly, previous form at Sandown. Strongly like Cant Buy Time for the race
#221
April 19th, 2010 18:19
Any trends either for the race?
#222
April 19th, 2010 18:22
Too my knowledge only Mr Frisk won the national and this race, along with Durham Edition who filled the same spot at both venues.
#223
April 19th, 2010 19:03
Previous winners 2009-2000.
2009 Hennessy, season run 3 , OR 132.
2008 Monkerhostin, season runs 3, OR 153
2007 Hot Weld, season runs 5, OR 135
2006 Lacdoudal, season runs 8, OR 152
2005 Jack High, season runs 8, OR 129
2004 Puntal, seasons runs 9, OR 142
2003 Ad Hoc, season runs 5, OR, 145
2002 Bounce Back, seasons runs 9, OR 133
2001 Ad Hoc, season runs 5, OR 134
#224
April 19th, 2010 19:06
2000 Beau, season runs 13, OR 140
#225
April 19th, 2010 19:27
A further breakdown of runs from start of October reveals,
2009 Hennessy runs from 1 October=3
2008 Monkerhostin runs from 1 October=3
2007 Hot Weld runs from 1 October=5
2006 Lacdoudal runs from 1 October=8
2005 Jack High runs from 1 October=8
2004 Puntal runs from 1 October=9
2003 Ad Hoc runs from 1 October=6
2002 Bounce Back runs from 1 October=7
2001 Ad Hoc runs from 1 Octber=5
2000 Beau runs from 1 October=7
#226
April 19th, 2010 19:39
The Package looking hot to trot for me!!!