Scottish Grand National 2009
The Scottish Grand National is run at Ayr on Saturday 18th April and currently has 96 horses engaged, although a number of the Paul Nicholls engaged runners have been listed as doubtful runners.
The Scottish National can prove to be a useful guide to winners at Aintree with Comply Or Die, Earth Summit and Little Polveir all previous runners in the Scottish National (although not necessarily the year before winning at Aintree). The fact that both races are usually run on good ground gives a really clear indication of the type of horse that will stay extreme distances on that type of underfoot conditions.
Here are the current top fancies and their best odds at time of writing:
Chief Dan George 7/1 Bet365 Click here for £100 of free bets Bet365
Tricky Trickster 8/1 Coral. Click here for £20 free bet Coral.
Nine De Sivola 9/1 Boylesports Click here for £200 of free bets Boylesports
West End Rocker 12/1 VCBet Click here for £50 free bet VCBet
Merigo 12/1 Paddy Power Click here for Bet £10 Get £20 Free Paddy Power
Russian Trigger 12/1 Stan James. Click here for £25 free bet Stan James.
This post has 219 comments
#1
April 6th, 2009 13:59
Here are some key stats for the Scottish Grand National:
Run within 60 days (11/12)
Top 5 Place LTO (11/12)
Won Class 1 or 2 Chase (10/12)
Won race 3m+ (11/12)
6 or less seasonal runs (11/12)
OR 132 – 143 (10/12)
8 – 10 year Old (11/12)
This should give us a basic starting point!
#2
April 6th, 2009 18:52
I don’t know the scottish national statistic as well as Aintree’s but you say Official Ratings 132 to 143.Meaning the winner should come from Southern Vic to Leading Contender (included).What was Grey Abbey OR who led from start to finish 2 years ago.
#3
April 6th, 2009 19:35
Studing these horses I’d see that Flintoff has not won since 17/1/07 were he won a class 3 race by 14l in heavy,but last time out beaten by 2.75 lengths by Russian Trigger in a class 2.Russian Trigger now 2 pounds worst off and also 7 year old.
Chief Dan George who won a class 2 race over 22.5f last time (kelso)out and 25.5f before that(catterick).He’s also a novice,from what little I know no disadvantage(Earth Summit and Little Polvier) was both Novices when winning this,unless I’am mistaken.
Nine De Sivola who didn’t make the cut for Aintree,you won’t have picked him for Aintree anyway he’s french (just joking).Seriously not won since 14/1/06 was third behind Tricky trickster at Cheltenham festival beaten 10 lengths and a neck.Yet to win a chase but has won a class 2 hurdle race.
#4
April 6th, 2009 19:46
I think the one horse that stands out to me is Merigo
#5
April 6th, 2009 20:05
According to John who last win 03/12/06 in a class 3 shorter than 3 miles.He has won a class 2 race at Ayr over 3 miles and 1 furlong.Last race was at Aintree in a class 2 race over 3 miles 1 furlong where he finished 28l 4th to Don’t Push It.
#6
April 6th, 2009 20:08
Hennessy who totally outclassed,not winning in anything over a class 4 race(expect an hurdle race where he came 2nd in a class 2)
#7
April 6th, 2009 20:23
Last but not least Leading Contender fit primary stats.
Won a class 1 bumper,class 2 hurdle and class 4 chase (only 4 runners and was 1 to 4 so might not been so hard).Last time out was second to Don’t Push It at aintree 3.5 lengths away.
These runners all fit the stats provided by performance factor.
Merigo does indeed looks intering and total missed by me. Thanks for pointing that out. He looks a prime candidate and if lining up I too might have a flutter,for third win in a row.
#8
April 6th, 2009 20:54
I’m not sure if I like Merigo..backed him to win the Eider but I thought it was a very poor Eider..he stays forever but not sure how much class he has..just looking at those listed at Ladbrokes, i’ll take a look at Halcon Generlardais, Sea Diva and Companero
#9
April 6th, 2009 21:49
I think the fact Merigo has proven he’ll stay and his record at Ayr is pretty good, should mean he will go close, he has got form on good ground as well. He’s the one that really stands out for me
#10
April 7th, 2009 10:07
Thanks for all you research Neil
I will be adding mine over the next few days.
#11
April 7th, 2009 10:15
Neil
Grey Abbey was one of the two runners outside the official rating quoted, which was a 10/12 stat. He raced off 148.
I forgot to mention that Ferdy Murphy is the trainer to follow in the race, having sent out three winners from ten runners.
#12
April 7th, 2009 19:24
Just to Correct myself I’d said that Grey Abbey Won 2 years ago.He in fact won the 2004 Scottish National 5 years ago.
I’ve a book on How To Find The National Winner (brought just before the void national)and one of the pointers is offical ratings (OR).The Author says Ratings between 157 to 140,but says Hello Dandy was an exception on 136.So I’ve always used Rating of 136 as my cut off point.
The point is you say Grey Abbey was an exception on rating 148 why not use that for your upper limit.
#13
April 8th, 2009 08:32
Neil
You will always get horses outside the main stats. If you were to include the full OR scale for the last 12 years you would also have to include Belmont King who won in 1997 off a mark of 150. The object of the stats is to reduce the field to a workable short-list.
What we can say is; using the OR 132-143 scale, we have an 83% chance of finding the winner based on the 10/12 stats.
#14
April 8th, 2009 10:16
Timmy Murphy has twice this season beaten a horse that I’ve backed when riding for his in laws so I’ll have to have a small bet on Merigo.
#15
April 8th, 2009 13:50
Is Sea Diva definately running in the Scottish National? I backed her for the Midlands as I really fancied her to be placed, and annoyingly she came fourth after the withdrawal of Companero, which meant I missed out. prior to that I checked out her previous races..she’s a good jumper who stays all day at one pace, and I resolved to back her ew in any future races.
#16
April 8th, 2009 14:47
I think Sea Diva needs a real test of stamina. As you say, she just isnt quick enough. I also backed in the Midlands, but was trading on Betfair so managed to recover my stake.
#17
April 8th, 2009 23:01
For me the ones that PF stats point to is Chief Dan George 8/1jf at ladbrokes and merigo at 10/1.Does anyone fancies any outsiders like Iris de Balme was last year.
#18
April 9th, 2009 18:10
From the work I done on this race last year a RPR best in last or second last race is very important (I think someone said this also applies to Irish National).
#19
April 9th, 2009 18:35
Just a further correction about According To John.I said that he won 3miles 1furlong in a class 2 race at Ayr.I ommitted to say it was a novice handicap hurdle.
#20
April 10th, 2009 10:26
5 for the race at the moment –
Russian Trigger
West End Rocker
—————
Coe
—————
Idle Talk
Bible Lord
Analysis at an early stage however……
#21
April 11th, 2009 17:25
Money starting to go on Flintoff after stable mate success in National .
#22
April 11th, 2009 23:59
My short-list – depending on final weights and ground:
Russian Trigger
Companero
Merigo
Leading Contender
That’s Rhythm
#23
April 12th, 2009 22:41
Not going to have a bet until the day of the race because of the ground
Cheltenham and Aintree National always on slow side of good these days (regardless of what official going says) and now Irish GN following suit – watering because trainers having a moan
Ayr has been GF recently for Scottish GN – will we ever see that again for a major race in March or April?
#24
April 13th, 2009 11:53
i’ve come up with these but you might want to check them before applying them.
between 7&10 yrs old(10/10)
won or placed over 25f(10/10)
won a chase worth at least £10,000(10/10)
run in at least 10 chases(10/10)
finished in first 6 last out(10/10)
won a class 1 or 2 (9/10)
at least 2 chase wins(9/10)
1st,2nd or 3rd that season(9/10)
won a chase with 10 or more runners(9/10)
won over at least 24f(9/10)
won over at least 25f(8/10)
won that season(7/10)
finished in first 3 that season(7/10)
won or placed over 27f(7/10)
#25
April 13th, 2009 12:21
Anyone fancy Chiaro, he hasn’t won a class 1 or 2 chase but stepped up in trip and won over 31f LTO carrying top weight and beating a couple of good horses along the way. He’s the only real value i see in the market. I can’t rule out Tricky Trickster either purely cause he is a 6 year old. NTD sent out a decent 6 year old in ‘94 to go on and win the Scottish national, and went on to win another couple of big prizes, the only problem is i think tricky may be carrying a tad too much weight
#26
April 13th, 2009 12:31
Notre Pere top weight for this set to carry 11′11 – 37 acceptors at 5 day stage – can’t find them yet but Mike De Beauchene next highest weight on 11′1 (according to RP)
Clearly NP might not run due to fast ground therefore weights might rise 10lb or so
Therefore I will not be having any ante-post bets on this market
Beginning to think ante-post bets are a complete waste of time unless I can get >100/1 for a few quid on Betfair – 3 reasons:
1. GN – ended up Good to Soft (effectivelty ruling out some Good ground horses)
2. Irish GN – p*ssing around with weights until 11am morning of the race
3. Same horse top weight (likes Soft going) for Ayr (often fast ground) – likely weight rise if as I expect same trainer pulls him out morning of the race
What’s the benefit of going in early?
#27
April 13th, 2009 16:49
Thanks for all the info.Got these stats from last year so they need double checking-if I’m wrong please let me know.
Male 20/20
24 chase runs or less 19/20 -Willsford
Running from highest hcap mark 14/20-others within 6lb
Best RR in last year last 3 chase runs 19/20 -Take Control
Top 6 last completed 18/20 Earth Summit 7th +Willsford 8th
Won 2+ chases 18/20 other 2 second 1/4 L +3/4L
Won 3 chases +17/20 +Captain Dibble
Won no more than & chases 19/20-Willsford
Won no more than 3 hcap chases 18/20-Willsford Roll a joint
Fell or UR more than twice 18/20
Placed 25F + -20/20
Placed 27F + -16/20
Won a chase 3M + 19/20-Joes Edge
Ran last 49 days 18/20 -Gingembre +Run for Paddy
Out of hcap 6/20
All bar one who completed an Ayr chase were top two
#28
April 13th, 2009 16:52
Sorry-Won no more than 7 chases 19/20
NOT fell or UR more than twice 18/20-Gingembre and Grey Abbey 3 times.
#29
April 13th, 2009 17:59
Have some important news if like me you fancy Merigo.Sporting Life site reports his trainer as saying he doesn’t want it fast.Says that its got to be safe ground.I guess that if the word Firm appears in the going then he would not run.
#30
April 13th, 2009 19:09
Stats seem a little better for this than the Irish national, my four are
Merigo
Russian Trigger
Dear Villez
Chiaro
The bottom 2 seem to be great value, Chiaro winning over 31f LTO carrying top weight and Dear Villez claimed a 4th in the Hennessy behind Madison du Berlais – think he will be my main bet as long as weights don’t rise too much
#31
April 14th, 2009 12:05
I’ll be going through the trends for this race either tonight or tomoro and will post up my selections then.
#32
April 14th, 2009 12:20
One that nobody has mentioned yet is Out The Black. Ticks a lot of the right boxes:
OR 133 with 2 highest RPR in last 2 runs.
Winner over 26f (Class 2 Grimthorpe Chase in Feb ‘09)
Won 2 Class 2 chases and been placed in both Class 1 chases contested
Won 2 chases where > 10 runners
2nd last time out (Class 2 Chase Ascot)
6 seasonal runs with last run <60 days ago
Placed over 33f (2nd in Uttoxeter Summer National June ‘08)
Slight negative is that he’s an 11yo, but having posted his highest RPR’s in his last 2 runs he can hardly be described as being on the decline. The ground is key to this horse as all of his wins have come on good ground, so he should appreciate the likely going at Ayr. He is 4lbs out of the handicap right now but if Notre Pere defects (likely) he will be in the handciap proper. I think 20/1 is a fair enough price.
#33
April 14th, 2009 12:53
One I like is LACDOUDAL
Has shown glimpses of his old form this season and is very well weighted indeed if he gets a true staying test on good fast ground
Notre Pere would come out if it was good so he would be running off 10′13 – which for a 10 year old that was rated in the 150+ bracket before his injury is nothing to fear – won the Betfred carrying 11′5
However Miko De Beauchene’s best form is on softer ground so he might come out too (pulled up on good ground in last year’s race) to leave Dear Villez with top weight and mean a 13lb rise in the weights – which would make IRISH RAPTOR very interesting
Too tricky with all these permutations so my not so shortlist is:
Russian Trigger
Gone To Lunch
Lacdoudal
Companero
Coe
Merigo
That’s Rhythm
Chiaro
Sea Diva
Irish Raptor
#34
April 14th, 2009 13:30
as pablo say’s too tricky,even with all these trends.
the more i look , the more i change my mind.
so these are my 4.
1 nine de sivola
2 russian trigger
3 merigo
4 chiaro
surely with a eider & a midland winner & and with one that as threatend to win a big race for some time, i have half a chance.
#35
April 14th, 2009 13:54
what about l’aventure? similar profile to willsford in that he’d ran twice in scottish gn and finishing.winning another big race the eider& midland(willsford),welsh g.n,3rd &4th in midland(l’aventure).recent form not too bad.
i’m clutching a bit?
#36
April 14th, 2009 13:56
probably won’t get in anyway.
back to the drawing board!
#37
April 14th, 2009 14:52
I agree with you on Out the Black (Stayer) – I give him an excellent each-way chance at a good value each way price. Given what is said in today’s Racing Post about Notre Pere and Mike being ground dependent – I fully expect the weights to go up 13lbs. That brings a lot of horses into calculations you would otherwise ignore as being too far out of the handicap (accepting last year’s winner won from miles out of the handicap!).
#38
April 14th, 2009 15:13
just applied these 10 trends,know there not perfect but just trying to establish a shortlist through stamina,form and class.
1 7-10 yrs (10/10)
2 won a class 1 or 2 chase (10/12)
3 won over at least 3 miles (19/20)
4 finished in first 3 that season (9/10)
5 or 132-143 (10/12)
6 won that season (7/10)
7 finished in first 3 last out (7/10)
8 won or placed over at least 25f (20/20)
9 best rpr in last 3 runs (19/20)
10 won over 25f (8/10)
so far only checked down to chiaro ,not included notre & miko.
only 3 horses met all 10: russian trigger,chief dan george& merigo.
out the black 9/10-(no1),gypsy george & brooklyn 9/10-(no7).will look at others tomorrow.
#39
April 14th, 2009 15:49
Thanks Whitearab, glad i’m not the only one!
I just think that many of those at the head of the market make little appeal at the current prices. Chief Dan George was a good hurdler but has only contested pretty modest novice chases so far. This is a big step up and 7s looks skinny. Tricky Trickster won well at Cheltenham but is only 6 and hasn’t encountered ground as quick as this. If Notre Pere doesn’t run he could also end up with 11-10. Nine De Sivola has had many chances to get his head in front over fences but hasn’t. He doesn’t look as good as he was yet he’s running off a higher mark than when he was 2nd a few years ago. The top 3 in the betting look very poor value to me.
#40
April 14th, 2009 15:55
Thanks all for trends/stats.
19/19 1st,2nd,3rd,4th over 27f or more/ or furthest distance raced.
19/19 40% place strike rate in chases/ 70% if contested less than 9 or less chases.
#41
April 14th, 2009 16:52
“19/19 1st,2nd,3rd,4th over 27f or more/ or furthest distance raced.
19/19 40% place strike rate in chases/ 70% if contested less than 9 or less chases.”
Out The Black hits both of those: 2nd over 33f (furthest raced) and won or placed in over half his chases
#42
April 14th, 2009 17:14
nice spot on Out The Black, overlooked him despite being in terrific form. Looks even better with the fact he finished 6 lengths of Niche Market just before Christmas giving him 5lbs.
Off to Cheltenham tomorrow to see a mates horse run, anyone got any fancies
#43
April 14th, 2009 17:57
Thanks for work crisp 73-Are those stats for all chases or all completed chases?
Also got Russian Trigger and Tricky Trickster on my list but have only ran 4 chases -ran six chases + 19/20,Paris Pike 5.
Have too long a list at moment but Out the Black stands out-not worried about age as it satisfies chase runs stat.
I have also got Gone To Lunch and Teeming Rain at different ends of the handicap.Also Notre Pere if it runs -I backed him in WGN but he’s annoying me now.
#44
April 14th, 2009 18:22
Re earlier stats re AYR CHASES should have said excluding runs in SGN.
#45
April 14th, 2009 18:42
After going through the list of horses and allowing a My four against the field are
Russian Trigger
Merigo
Out the black
Chiaro
Not 100% about russian trigger so holding off putting that bet on at the moment to see if there is a better value horse that i have overlooked.
King Barry keeps screaming off the page everytime i look at it but dont know what to make of its form as i read into it differently everytime i read it.
#46
April 14th, 2009 18:49
Brian -got King Barry too .He only fails on one stat and likes Ayr.I’m not a form man so would appreciate any info.33/1 looks too big.
#47
April 14th, 2009 19:51
See Timmy Murphy picked Merigo over King Barry -both owned by the in -laws.
Anyone know the forecast weatherwise?
#48
April 14th, 2009 20:48
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/366?&search=ayr&pageSize=10®ion=uk
Looks like mostly dry and sunny apart from one overnight shower tonight
Watering ground to maintain good
#49
April 14th, 2009 20:58
st peter says:
April 14, 2009 at 6:49 PM
Brian -got King Barry too .He only fails on one stat and likes Ayr.I’m not a form man so would appreciate any info.33/1 looks too big.
All i do St peter is look at which races the horse has run in and see what it beat or what beat it and then have a look at what them horses have done since and just before the original race.
i.e. King barry was in a race recently with church island so i looked at what church island had done in a few races before and then looked at the races its run in since i.e. irish national.
Hope that explains it for you but im sure other people will look at the form of horses differently and i dont claim to be an expert in it, just more of a reassurance of the horses i pick that best fit trends
#50
April 14th, 2009 21:14
Thanks Pablo.Agree with your earlier posts-Hard to go in early now in these races.Watering and weight issues means only worth getting involved at big prices on exchanges or at bookies N/R no bet at which point the overound is about 140% which is useless.Niche Market was worth waiting for as had it at 70 on day so I will wait for Saturday to get on for this.
The decs will be out Thursday?
Hopefully we can get shortlists down.
#51
April 14th, 2009 21:16
Thanks Brian.
#52
April 15th, 2009 07:48
19/19 Scottish National winners won 1 of their last 9 chases.
winners 89-08; 20/20; won/placed at 27f or more- or won/placed at furthest distance ran. *Placed is 2nd,3rd,4th.
Roll A Joint- won at 30f
Four Trix- won at 24f, placed at 33f
Killone Abbey- won at 33f
Captain Dibble- won at 24f, placed at 25f(furthest distance ran)
Run For Free- won at 30f,
Earth Summit- won at 24f, placed at 27f
Willsford- won at 36f
Moorcroft Boy – won at 33f
Belmont King- won at 24f, placed at 27f
Baronet – won at 24f, placed at 33f
Young Kenny – won at 34f
Paris Pike – won at 26f (furthest distance ran)
Gingembre- won at 24f, placed at 27f
Take Control – won at 27f
Ryalux- won at 25f (furthest distance ran)
Grey Abbey – won at 26f, placed at 33f
Joes Edge- won at 20f, placed at 25f(furthest distance ran)
Run For Paddy- won at 25f, placed at 29f
Hot Weld- won at 33f
Iris De Balme- won at 31f
#53
April 15th, 2009 08:31
TC,
Which horse running at Cheltenham is owned by your mate? Should we be lumping on?!
One bet for me today is Alexanderthegreat in the 2:45. Backed him for the Kim Muir, (one of my bigger bets at The Festival) but he was unluckily brought down when going well. I backed him on account that his last 4 runs at Cheltenham read as 2,4,2,1 so clearly loves the course. Ran a shocker at Aintree on National Day, which was only 10 days ago, but that was a funny race with very few getting involved and only 5 finishers from 17 starters. If he’s recovered from that I would expect better today and Venetia Williams is still sending out winners. 10/1 seems a fair enough price.
#54
April 15th, 2009 10:50
Hi all, sorry for my long absence. I’ve been working on my website and the Scottish National for some time and my final analysis is now posted at http://www.racingrascal.com – please take a read and post your comments here. It’s a bit too long to post in one thread.
To give you a taster here’s the conclusion –
The Rascal has taken a look at the RPR’s of his last six horses in their preceding three races and although he has failed to win any of three tough challenges The Rascal’s selection has secured the best RPR of any of the remaining candidates. The Rascal believes also that his selection is the most favourably handicapped of the final six. He has won over 30 furlongs on fast ground but also has career form on heavy, soft and good ground. His last and only fall was in 2003 and his spring form has always been respectable. What’s more he keeps in touch with the leaders so you should get a run for your money and he has placed in two thirds of his 27 chases. The last win was in the Betfred Gold Cup in 2006 but The Rascal believes the 10 year old can add another notch to that bedpost at Ayr. He is sixth in The Rascal’s overall league table (MON MOME was seventh in The Rascal’s Aintree equivalent!) and best of all you can currently get 33-1 at most bookmakers and around 40-1 at Betfair (sign up now!).
The Rascal’s each-way selection for the 2009 Scottish National is…
1st LACDOUDAL
Feedback please…
#55
April 15th, 2009 10:53
For me 2 horses stand out at Cheltenham today as being very well handicapped compared with everything else in their races
Le Duc – lower mark than when winning this race under Ruby Walsh last year and has done ok in last 2 runs under amateur riders
Private Be – well in on C&D form with Imperial Commander (despite the odd error) and ran a decent race in Topham last time out
Bad news is both are prone to errors and available at 5/1 or 9/2
Win on Le Duc and win double (saver on Private Be if necessary)
#56
April 15th, 2009 10:56
Totally agree Rascal – see my post from the other day – my main fancy too
Are we sure that Lacdoudal will run in this and not the Bet365 at Sandown? Looks like he will get his ground (firm in places today)
I have taken some of the 40+ available on Betfair but want to be sure he’s taking part before I pile in further – final declarations tomorrow I guess
#57
April 15th, 2009 11:02
Not vey scientific but the main Nationals cant all fall to outsiders can they?
Based on the excellent work by many so far and the fact that the GN and IN went to outsiders (and this race last year – Iris de Balme 66/1 and French! [Wacky they do win they really do])i think the winner looks likely to be a good trends horse in the top 7 of the betting list so we have (this is not based on any major work just a hunge and the posts so far):
Chief Dan George 7/1
Merigo 12/1
Russian Trigger 12/1
Any good trends reasons why any of the three cant win? Any others?
For Info – bets via RP site so far:
851 bets Chief Dan George
529 bets Nine De Sivola
322 bets Merigo
322 bets Tricky Trickster
253 bets Character Building
207 bets Russian Trigger
184 bets According To John
161 bets Flintoff
161 bets Hello Bud
115 bets Companero
#58
April 15th, 2009 11:18
RE Lacdoudal, i’ve got a feeling that he will run in the Bet365 the following week as Hobbs also has Chiaro and Out The Black engaged at Ayr. I would be suprised if he ran all 3. Ladcoudal has won the Sandown race previously (his last win) and I think he will go there for a repeat bid.
Systemsman,
Chief Dan George and Russian Trigger have contested 5 and 4 chases respectively, which I think breaks the experience stat. Russian Trigger has at least won a competitive handicap chase though, and over 4m+ too. The ground will be faster than he’s raced on before though. Chief Dan George has contested much more modest contests and this looks a step up. 7/1 looks like poor value to me. I think he’s been priced up on his high-class hurdles form rather than on what he has accomplished over fences. Merigo does fit the stats but might be a bit of a plodder.
Maybe i’m trying to pick holes that aren’t there but I can’t get too enthusiastic about those three.
#59
April 15th, 2009 11:22
Glad you’re with me Pablo – I’ve only had small bets so far. I hope LACDOUDAL runs at Ayr rather than Sandown and if it stays reasonably dry I think the chance should be taken. 9/1 second favourite for the BET365 Gold Cup however and should he withdraw I guess I’m with Systemsman and will aim to win my Aintree stake back on CHIEF DAN GEORGE.
#60
April 15th, 2009 11:22
Horss is called Silver Spinner, in the 4.30, don’t fancy it myself. Think there are a few posibilities in the 2.45 though, do like Alexanderthegreat at bigger odds. will be on private be though. Best value could be Callisto Moon in the 3.20 going back to hurdles after a poor spell on the AW, could be an interesting outsider
#61
April 15th, 2009 11:40
Contested less than 5 chases would be a new low in recent times, probably all time. Earth Summit won it as a 6yr old though had contested ten chases. Paris Pike only contested five chases but was an 8 yr old. Not finalised a short list yet but Hello Bud is beginning to interest me. Has won on good to firm, 28f, and has won at 32f. Steady increase on RPR postings over past 13 months, could be the surprise here.
#62
April 15th, 2009 13:10
There was a lot to like about the way Hello Bud won the other day, though that was literally just the other day and though he didn’t look to have a hard race this is a big test so soon after going 28f. Also, he’s never run in a Class 1 chase and his form in Class 2 contests reads as 6, P. The stable was in dire form when he pulled up at Doncaster so that run can be forgiven, but the Sandown run where he finished behind the likes of Kilbeggan, Rambo and L’Aventure might just be as good as he is.
#63
April 15th, 2009 13:31
It takes a Mon Mome type leap of faith but COE may be an interesting one too. His last run at Cheltenham was not great but in his previous race in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock (Class 1, £115k race), he was 2nd of 16 to RAMBLING MINSTER (our would be hero!) and was 9/2 FAV. He beat the likes of CHARACTER BUILDING and others out of sight. He has also won over 28f (£17.5k race carrying 11st 9lbs). He has won or been placed in 8 of his 16 runs. My main worries with him are that he ran poorly at Cheltenham (the second time he had ran poorly there) last time (but Mon More did too in the Midlands National) and the ground may be on the quick side for him. But he is weighted to carry 9st 13lbs (no doubt + 13lbs) and at 25/1 (he was at Hills at lunchtime), I think there are worse bets than him.
#64
April 15th, 2009 15:11
Not finished yet but Sound Accord, Hello Bud, Merigo, Out The Black seem the pick at the moment.
#65
April 15th, 2009 15:18
LACDOUDAL was thought of as a proper GN horse by Hobbs but owners didn’t want him to run at Aintree at that stage of his career
I have a feeling that maybe, as he’s a 10 year old now and has been given a great chance by the handicapper on ideal ground at the right time of year, the Scottish GN might be the race for him if Hobbs has him right
Consider the horses above him in the handicap:
Notre Pere – 30f G pulled up – wants soft
Miko De Beauchene – 33f G pulled up in this race before
Dear Villez – never raced on a sound surface – conceeding 10lb (5lb with Skelton’s claim) – likely topweight with 11′12
Tricky Trickster – unexposed Novice has never run over fences on faster ground, 20lb higher than for Cheltenham win and conceeding 9lb – would be some performance of 11′11
Gone To Lunch – decent Novice and only 5lb higher than winning hat-trick of races but still might have to carry 11′10 and has to concede 8lb to Lacdoudal
The Market Man – not sure what to make of this one or why it’s in the race but has to concede 6lb – anybody fancy this?
Golden Flight – nothing in two runs to suggest this will be winning and has to concede 1 lb
Russian Trigger – done nothing wrong in last 2 runs (winning Kent National – same as Iris De Balme – and Midlands – same as Young Kenny) – never raced on faster ground but sire Double Trigger won Ascot Gold Cup on GF and also RT has stamina-packed Busted genes – definitely one for the short-list but, although unexposed, is still on SAME weight as Lacdoudal
Brooklyn Brownie – has snippets of form that could be interpreted as good and not a bad pedigree but does not look well-handicapped on known form and carries same weight as Lacdoudal (who is proven in the Class)
Sure there might be one or two unexposed Novices below Lacdoudal in the weights or ones that stay the trip well
But 33/1 is great each-way value about a horse that on known form will get the trip, love the ground, is potentially well-handicapped and was used to running and performing well against the likes of My Will and State Of Play in good-class chases at this time of the year
Provided of course it runs – but we’ll find out within the next 24 hours…
#66
April 15th, 2009 15:50
Does anyone fancy High Chimes? Rather a delicate horse but trainer thinks better ground could suit him; seems to be a spring horse as well and State of Play showed the stable to be in good form.
#67
April 15th, 2009 17:09
Cracking little race this year and lets hope they dont over water…!!!
my early fancies
out the black
hello bud
coe
chiaro
high chimes
looks like their could be a few withdrawals because of the fast ground so id hold on to your pursestrings unless u know ur fancy will go on the quick ground . lacdoudal and gyspsy george look like non runners and poss companero as well .does anybody know the final decs stage – is it tomorrow or fri ?
#68
April 15th, 2009 17:11
My final four – I think!
LACDOUDAL – first choice – see above
HIGH CHIMES – equalled best performance in Hennessy running on late just outside the places (Run for Paddy also ran on and Gingembre came second – both in same season as winning SGN) – stamina should not be a problem as The Parson is on dam’s side of the family (Young Kenny too) and that one’s most famous progeny Danoli and Large Action both won Grade 1 races on GF (Parson’s Legacy also likes faster ground) – perhaps unexposed at longer trip
IRISH RAPTOR – not sure whether this will stay but is very well weighted only going up 4lbs for easy win at Aintree and was going very well against Darkness at Newbury – both left handed tracks – and has been thought of as National horse but has never got in
RUSSIAN TRIGGER – won two races that have produced two previous winners and sire went on the ground – possibly dodgy jumper but should stay very well if gets round
#69
April 15th, 2009 17:16
Looking at Chiaros last race he could be better for going left handed [so had tiny ew]. High Chimes price coming in so going to have a small ew at WH where he still seems to be 20/1 [watch him be withdrawn now].
#70
April 15th, 2009 17:19
Silver Birch – where is info for possible withdrawal of Lacdoudal from?
#71
April 15th, 2009 17:34
Silver Birch,
I think the final decs coould be 48hrs for this so tomorrow some time hopefully.
Pablo,
Yeah, High Chimes is a decent horse and maybe 20/1 is a good price. However, I backed this horse for the Welsh National when Evan Williams was confident of a big run – he stated that his Hennessy run was a great pipe-opener for it etc. He was very bullish but the horse ran like a drain. He ran better at Cheltenham but if you look through his form he has thrown in a couple of shockers over the years.
#72
April 15th, 2009 17:39
Pablo,
Not heard anything about Lacdoudal not running, but just a gut feeling given Hobbs has two other entries and Lacdoudal has won the big Sandown race before and could go there again. Just a gut feeling that could well be wrong.
Looking on Betfair the fancied ones that are trading much bigger than with the high street bookies, so may be doubtful runners, are: According To John, Notre Pere, Newbay Prop (ran Monday), Companero and Miko De Beauchene.
#73
April 15th, 2009 17:53
Hi Pablo – an extract from the sporting life from today – just fyi . you might want to tread carefully until tomorrow at least ..
(reopens) Outlining his running plans for the race, Philip Hobbs, speaking at Cheltenham, said: “Probably Chiaro and Out The Black will run. I’d say Lacdoudal won’t, as the ground will probably be very quick. He has had his problems and might wait for the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.”
#74
April 15th, 2009 17:55
its under the headline or section about the martin todhunter horse – ryhtym or something or other .. hope this helps
#75
April 15th, 2009 18:03
thanks – save my money i think
#76
April 15th, 2009 18:06
Ran in a hcap chase -18/20.
The other two were novices .
1994 Earth Summit 7th RSA chase,pu Reynoldstown on soft,10 chase runs won 3 close 2nd twice.
1992 Captain Dibble 5th RSA chase,won G2 novice,2nd Feltham.
Can’t have Chief Dan-sorry.
I’ve got Russian and Tricky on my list still because even though they fail the 6 chase runs + stat they have good hcap form.
Merigo has won 4 hcap chases-18/20 won 3 or less.Also hasn’t ran last 49 days but Timmy up and fancied on here.
Lacdoudal-27 chase runs?Also racing from a mark 16lb lower than its highest.
#77
April 15th, 2009 18:50
Hello there.
Got some facts and figures which might help to come to a conclusion.
In the past decade four winners have come into this on a win;one on a second;two on a third and the rest was fourth;fifth and sixth.
8 year olds have 6 wins from 59 entries and 10 year olds 3 from 41.
Anything from 12 upwards have only a few tries.
Like I said in an earlier comment not a disadvantage to be a novice.
5 out the last 15 winners were novicest.They were:
Iris De Balme,Joes Edge,Earth Summit,Captain Dribble and Paris Pike.
Nigel Twisten Davis trained 2.Beware though that in the last 30 years the National Hunt Chase winners have failed to follow up.
In the past decade only 2 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (Joes Edge & Take Control)
Ratings and I’ve discussed this with Performance Factor and at the time agreed with his answer.Only 1 winner was rated higher than 150 in the past quarter of a century.
Finally in the past decade 6 of the winners came into the race with their best form in the last race,while 2 had 1 and 2 runs since.
#78
April 15th, 2009 19:19
Thanks for the info Neil-good work.
Let us know your shortlist when decs are out.
Teeming Rain with Robbie Mac claiming 5lb if weights rise anyone?Fits all my stats apart from OR122 ,but 6/20 have been out of handicap and guessing that good pace on fastish ground favours featherweights- 10/20 carried 10-2 or less.
I’m not a big fan of Jonjo but he’s handy at laying one out and if this doesn’t bounce could be value at nice price.
#79
April 15th, 2009 19:51
What OR are we working from fellas???Last year was 117 and 1997 was 150! Whats everyone working from?
Need to narrow this field, Merigo, Out the Black, Teeming rain…..L’Adventure???? Feather weight I know….
#80
April 15th, 2009 20:07
Im working down to an OR of 130 and upto 146 to allow for a slight shift in the normal range. so at the moment it includes The market man down to King Barry
#81
April 15th, 2009 20:31
Matriarch I know what you mean.
Most are working from OR on the day which is useless as 6/20 were out of hcap and it depends on the OR of the topweight e.g. in the GN no winner carried more than 12lb higher than bottom weight since Rhyme or Reason[off the top of my head will confirm].
As I said before 10/20 carried 10-2 or less and 4/20 carried 11-10 +.
Ryalux 10-5 fits all my trends.
Take Control 10-6 Pipe horse failed 4 trends {they always do]
Gingembre-only had not ran last 49 days.
Paris Pike -only 5 Ch runs
Willsford-10-12 -broke loads of trends.
All I’m trying to say is looking out for class horses at the the top of the handicap and keen on anything carrying 10-2 or less .The OR rating is irrelevant in terms of this race and be aware of claimers which skew any OR rating.
Hopefully things will become cleare when decs are out and thankfully no Irish alternative hcap rules.
Good Luck to everyone and hope you get the double up in-form Maureen.
#82
April 15th, 2009 20:39
Brian -are you still with King Barry?
Won 4 hcap chases is only fail on my trends.
Was with you on Niche and Bazza’s a nice price.
#83
April 15th, 2009 20:47
Not yet worked anything out, but Nigel Twisten Davis runners look interesting. Will sleep on it and see if I can find an alternative to fav who i’am still keen on.
#84
April 15th, 2009 21:15
Is Tricky up for it Neil or will the weight cop for him on the day if weights rise?
The Twister is a man to keep onside in these big races and no better man than Paddy B if he’s on board.
#85
April 15th, 2009 21:25
The figures are good for tricky but like I said the race he ran in is poor for form, although he won by 10 lengths. I’d think his others at much better prices look interesting.
#86
April 15th, 2009 21:39
I think that if you respect Twisten Davis then Irish Raptor in both form and price looks good, will study the field to see if the are any others.
#87
April 15th, 2009 22:03
So, we’ve got a race that may be won by a horse from the bottom of the handicap, or the top, or possibly from out of the handicap; it could be a novice or a seasoned handicapper; it could have been laid out for the race by Jonjo, Ferdy or NTD. The only certainties to me are that Notre Pere will not run [oh yes he will, oh no he won't....] and that West End Rocker will only win if they remove most of the fences [I watched his last race on ATR]…and I’ve just remembered that L’Aventure won the Welsh National years ago, and seems very happy at her new stable. The word nightmare springs to mind!
#88
April 15th, 2009 22:13
What we want is a horse in form. Winning form last time out looks strongest. Placed looks next best.
#89
April 15th, 2009 22:15
I think thr form of Chiaro looks pretty strong considering it carried top weight and beating l’aventure back in 3rd giving him 12lbs. Proven he will get trip as well, very good place claims for this one at a big price
#90
April 15th, 2009 22:24
and jumping very much to the left as well; 33/1 looks good value to me.
#91
April 15th, 2009 23:23
If we don’t like form and want to go for a Novice then That’s Rhythm makes most sense to me
To be honest this is by far the weakest of the 3 main Nationals and that’s why I looked at Lacdoudal so strongly
Trying to pick from the unexposed horses is hard work – small bets for me until Derby meeting in June
#92
April 15th, 2009 23:28
Sorry meant 4 main Nationals
#93
April 15th, 2009 23:36
Looking at The Weekender (thats were I got my other info from).The past decade the winning RPR as been Top,Top,-1lb,-7lb,-2lb,-21lb,-9lb,-6lb,-6lb,-30lb.I think that apart from the 21 pounds and 30 pounds you can see that you looking at RPR of single figures from the Top.
Notre Pere is Top on 174 and his best is also his latest.However I don’t think he’ll run.
Here’s an extensive list of RPR that within 9 pounds of NP with last time out no worse than 3rd.
Tricky Trickster 166 at 32f on good to soft.
Russian Trigger 171 at 33f on soft.
Chief Dan George 169 at 22f on good.
West End Rocker 169 at 24f on good.
Companero 169 at 24f on good to soft (latest was 163 at 25f on soft)
Nine De Sivola 165 at 32f on good to soft.
Sound Accord 168 at 24f on good.
Merigo 171 at 33f on heavy.
Out The Black 168 at 24f on good.
Hello Bud 168 at 27f on good to firm.
That’s Rhythm 167 at 24f on good.
King Barry 165 at 24f on good to soft(latest was 163 at 28f on good.)
Irish Raptor 173 at 21f on good.
Hopefully the winner should be in this list.If not then I’am flummoxed.
#94
April 16th, 2009 06:38
I am not as well informed on horses as many of you on here but only bet on the national runs and so far this year got 2nd at aintree and 1st at fairyhouse. Up untill today was completely perplexed about irish raptures odds and lack of supporters (really glad to see some of you are now on board). I tend to apply common sense approach as oppossed to trends but use trends to reach common sense. You lot on this site are invaluable to that end. So to that end irish rapture ran a blinder at cheltnam is obviously in great form nicely weighted and rated as one of the fav for aintree 2010. Think the 28/1 offered by some bookies is a steal. Good luck
#95
April 16th, 2009 07:25
Looking at last 10 years it appears that this race goes to either a lightweight or a horse that is well in according to RPR – OR if carrying 11′0 or over
Winning horses carrying 11′0 or over in last 10 years:
Young Kenny 11′10 5/2F 17lb well in after winning Midlands National previous run and got his preferred Soft ground
Paris Pike 11′0 5/1JF 10lb well in after winning Uttoxeter Novices’ Handicap Chase – his 4th win from 5 chase starts (other came second) – clearly progressive type – chase RPRs read 110, 125, 138, 140, 153 before the race
Gingembre 11′2 12/1 14lb well in on 2nd in Hennessy on Heavy although SGN was run on GF (longest lay off before win – 84 days)
Grey Abbey 11′12 12/1 15lb well in after winning Grimthorpe at Doncaster (4th in race the previous year)
Assuming Notre Pere, Miko DB and Lacdoudal do not run I cannot find anything from Chief Dan George or above that has such a profile – nearest would be Russian Trigger +6lb but concerns over going (although Dad won Ascot Gold Cup on GF)
Makes me think that a lighter weighted horse might win
#96
April 16th, 2009 08:22
Not sure about Irish Raptor. I think he could be a bit of an Aintree specialist these days. He obviously has a few quirks as he ran out when leading in the race won by Darkness a few months ago and I think he could be a bit of an Aintree specialist these days. He also looks a bit exposed and has had quite a few cracks at Class 1 chases but has never landed one. Despite his breeding I would also question his stamina and given his trainer loves the National, I think it’s telling that the horse wasn’t entered this year. Apparently he’s being aimed at the Topham again next year and not the National itself.
#97
April 16th, 2009 08:23
IRISH RAPTOR for me – in form , well in, light weight, goes very well left-handed on galloping courses on good ground, jumps for fun…trainer thinks it will stay the Grand National trip
Would really like Brennan on board but worried he might go for TT instead
Race looks tricky though – L’Aventure on best form? Chiaro? Merigo? Out The Black? Nine De Sivola? That’s Rhythm? And I probably haven’t even mentioned the winner
#98
April 16th, 2009 08:26
“He loves it here. He eats the fences for breakfast, they are no problem to him, he is a great big horse, a great big galloper. I am sure they will allow him into the National next year, that is obviously his race. He keeps slipping down the handicap because there is no other racecourses like this to bring out his best. He will be back for the Becher Chase, provided the ground is good, and the National. He has won round Cheltenham over 3m2f and staying is not a problem – Nigel Twiston-Davies”
If Irish Raptor acts at Ayr he wins I think
#99
April 16th, 2009 08:40
Ok different to something I read but there you go. Still interesting that they didn’t enter him for the National this year and it’s also interesting that NTD says that “there is no other racecourse like this to bring out his best.”
As I said, 8 Class 1 chases and no wins is a worry and they weren’t all on bad ground either so that can’t be an excuse. He’s won on soft ground anyway.
#100
April 16th, 2009 09:09
All bar 3 of the bookies have suspended betting on the race. Final decs must be imminent.
#101
April 16th, 2009 09:55
I’m not making any excuses for Irish Raptor – just thinks he’s a reasonable bet at a fair price if he runs
Trip: Trainer thinks no problem
Going: Best two performances this season on Good ground
Track: Prefers Aintree but ran very well until inexplicably running out at Newbury – both left-handed flat galloping tracks – Ayr is also left-handed and pretty flat and galloping except for undulations down the far side
Form: Arguably in best form of career at present – certainly right up there
Weight: Low and 16lb well in RPR – OR
Class: Won £68k Class 2 last time out (more valuable race over fences than any other horse has won in the line up apart from Golden Flight on Soft ground in France and Newbay Prop winning the Paddy Power Chase – assuming NP, MDB and Lacdoudal don’t run) – all Class 1 races run have been with Soft in description – this horse is clearly at its best on Good ground as stated by Trainer – some horses need everything in place to win, others are more versatile
There are question marks besides Irish Raptor but 25/1+ about this one seems a decent price to me taking eveything into consideration
#102
April 16th, 2009 10:03
Fair enough Pablo. It may be academic because SkyBet have just re-priced the race and there are gaps in the field. Looks like the following have NOT been declared:
Russian Trigger
Irish Raptor
High Chimes
Lacdoudal
Newbay Prop
Notre Pere
Companero
The Market Man
Miko De Beauchene
Teeming Rain
Gypsy George
Sherwoods Folly
Golden Flight
Wild Cane Ridge
Milan Deux Mille
Panama At Once
They all look like being non-runners according to SkyBet. Looks like the weights will go up a fair bit and Dear Villez is the new top one.
#103
April 16th, 2009 10:09
Just seen that too Stayer – +13lb
Well that’s 2 horses I really fancied out of the race
Plus Russian Trigger and High Chimes
Back to the drawing board
Cracking card at Ayr on Saturday – really looking forward to it
#104
April 16th, 2009 10:13
DEAR VILLEZ has been allotted top weight of 11st 12lb in Saturday’s Coral Scottish National at Ayr as the two above him in the handicap, Notre Pere and Miko De Beauchene, were not declared at the 48 hour stage on Thursday.
As Dear Villez will be ridden by Irish National-winning jockey Harry Skelton, who claims a valuable 5lb, and Tricky Trickster, next in the weights on 11st 11lb, by 7lb claiming amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, Gone To Lunch will in fact carry top weight of 11st 10lb under Tony McCoy.
Ante-post favourite Chief Dan George carries 11st 1lb following the 13lb rise in the weights and a prominent absence in the 21 declarations is the Victor Dartnall-trained Russian Trigger, a 10-1 chance with the race sponsors.
Sea Diva is the only Irish representative from the Dessie Hughes stable, while L’Aventure, ridden by last year’s winning jockey Charlie Huxley, completes the line-up.
#105
April 16th, 2009 10:35
Full card. Some interesting jockey bookings:
1 U2-1454 Dear Villez (FR) 39 7 11-12 P F Nicholls Harry Skelton (5)
2 422121 Tricky Trickster (IRE) 38 6 11-11 N A Twiston-Davies Mr S Waley-Cohen (7)
3 32111P Gone To Lunch (IRE) 38 9 11-10 J Scott A P McCoy 148
4 24921F Brooklyn Brownie (IRE) 14 10 11-2 J M Jefferson P Kinsella 140
5 7-32211 Chief Dan George (IRE) 29 9 11-1 p James Moffatt P Aspell 139
6 2-23212 West End Rocker (IRE) 31 7 10-13 A King R Thornton 137
7 2/22P43 Nine De Sivola (FR) 38 8 10-11 p1 Ferdy Murphy G Lee 135
8 318213 Sound Accord (IRE) 31 8 10-11 D W P Arbuthnot B J Geraghty 135
9 53412F Coe (IRE) 38 7 10-11 Mrs S J Smith R McGrath 135
10 561721 Merigo (FR) 56 8 10-9 A Parker T J Murphy 133
11 443/5-44 According To John (IRE) 14 9 10-9 N G Richards 132
12 8017-00 Arteea (IRE) 14 10 10-9 D Pipe T Scudamore 133
13 525412 Out The Black (IRE) 22 11 10-9 P J Hobbs T J O’Brien 137
14 P-116P1 Hello Bud (IRE) (ex4) 9 11 10-9 t N A Twiston-Davies P J Brennan
15 1P-2221 That’s Rhythm (FR) 28 9 10-7 M Todhunter N Fehily 131
16 225341 Chiaro (FR) 33 7 10-6 b P J Hobbs R Flint (5) 130
17 354974 Sea Diva (IRE) 35 9 10-6 pt D T Hughes R Loughran
18 461123 King Barry (FR) 29 10 10-6 Miss P Robson P Buchanan
19 P-P4F00 Le Toscan (FR) 15 9 10-1 p D Pipe S P Jones (3) 123
20 114-F23 Native Coral (IRE) 84 11 10-0 N G Richards D J Condon 121
21 8-32F53 L’Aventure (FR) 33 10 10-0 Nick Williams Charlie Huxley (5) 120
#106
April 16th, 2009 11:07
Final selections:
Sound Accord
Merigo
That’s Rhythm
#107
April 16th, 2009 11:25
Irish Raptor might be out but what about Hello Bud for those who think NTD. Will give my full attention later.
#108
April 16th, 2009 11:50
I think i’m going to stick with Out The Black and leave it at that. Recouped my Aintree losses with Niche Market the other day and don’t want to be handing much of it back to the bookies so soon!
Lots seem to have a good chance but you can pick holes in a fair few of them as well. Out The Black ticks a lot of the right boxes with his age being the only real negative. The Hobbs string seem to be in fine form as he had a double and a second from his 4 runners at Cheltenham yesterday. Tom O’Brien has been booked and he rides very well and has won on the horse so i’m happy enough with that. Had a small bet earlier in the week so will top up a bit now that it’s NRNB. Bet365 are still going 18s, which seems a decent enough e/w price. Just hope it stays dry up at Ayr.
#109
April 16th, 2009 12:17
hey guys n gals,
not glad all the value has dried up already tho! no chance of 50-1 fun here! my thoughts at mo are
glad in some ways I didn’t go in early here, but actually changes nothing of my thoughts, which I am glad to see are echoed here
Out the Black- I woulda fancied e/w for the GN after recent form, but had no chance of gettin in.
Merigo- nice win last time I seem to remember but will it run, is ground still heading for good to firm!!??
Brooklyn Brownie- had in GN fell early so like to see it run a big race for me. Wishful thinking?
#110
April 16th, 2009 12:24
One thing is for sure, it’s going to be a cracking race! Starting to think now that Dear Villez- excellent so far on 2010 GN stats, good to see him get a 3rd or better- might run a very good race though doesn’t seem to want it any better than good/soft but if they are watering it won’t be will it? Like the look of Geraghty on Sound Accord, don’t think Out The Black’s age is of any consequence/hasn’t been over raced for an 11 yr old and these long distance chases seem to be for young horses with relatively plenty of experience or lightly raced older horses.
#111
April 16th, 2009 13:42
A bet on Niche Market for the irish after he let me down at Cheltenham, then bet on him for the GN at 400’s and he didn’t run so lost the bet as well as my other 8 horses that came knowhere or nibbled the aintree fences as they collided through them, but gave him one final chance at 60’s for the Irish and he came up trumps, so have reinvested some of the winning on out the black 20’s and 27 & Chairo & 40’s
#112
April 16th, 2009 15:24
Disappointed about High Chimes, especially as the trainer seemed quite bullish about him; have ended up with Sea Diva, Chiaro [ridden, I see by Rhys Flint who I said I would follow off the edge of a cliff even though I didn't back his two winners at Market Rasen on Tuesday], Gone to Lunch, because I really like the trainer [wish it had a different jockey, however]and Nine de Sivola [right age, trainer,jockey, will stay etc etc]. Worried about Merigo, L’Aventure and Tricky Trickster.
#113
April 16th, 2009 17:31
3 out of my 4 picks still in,so it’s either l’aventure or out the black as my 4th.
1 nine de sivola
2 merigo
3 chiaro
4 l’aventure
e/w me thinks, very little confidence after recent perfomances in irish & english.
good luck to one & all.
#114
April 16th, 2009 17:49
st peter says:
April 15, 2009 at 8:39 PM
Brian -are you still with King Barry?
Won 4 hcap chases is only fail on my trends.
Was with you on Niche and Bazza’s a nice price.
I certainly am St Peter and with Russian Trigger not declaring that made my mind up.
Cant split my final four any further down so going in hard on them all with the winnings from Niche.
My four are:
Merigo,
Chiaro,
Out the black
King Barry
#115
April 16th, 2009 18:19
Well with the final declarations being a bit of a nuisance I have updated my analysis and league table accordingly – you can view both at http://www.racingrascal.com
I also have it down to four now:
1. OUT THE BLACK
2. CHIEF DAN GEORGE
3. MERIGO
4. NINE DE SIVOLA
Have backed my top two.
#116
April 16th, 2009 18:19
good signs – my selections are looking pretty similar
Out The Black
Chiaro
Merigo
I think the ground will be too quick for l’aventure, if there is plenty of rain around he could well make the frame though
#117
April 16th, 2009 18:42
This race was so much easier for me last year.Picked 3 2 fell or something and the third was Iris De Balme which I took 100/1 about.
I personally don’t think this year’s winner will be anywhere as big.
I don’t think that it’ll match Iris De Balme sp of 66/1.
I took Performance Factor’s stat and they could have led me anywhere from fav to rank outsider.I see that Dan Chief George keeps popping up and is the only horse to match the stats exactly,but thats okay because in 1998 I used stats to work out that years GN when weights came out and Earth Summit was my only candidate which I took 25/1.So don’t think you need half a dozen selections if you trust yor stats.
Back to this years SN.Like I said earlier I like CDG and Merigo but going to try and find an outsider.
Rating used will be 132-143 quoting PF this range as a 83% chance
Won or Placed last time with a decent RPR this means the horse is in good form.
A light campaign means its be targeted at a spring race.
The ability to see out the trip.I think 3 miles in decent company will cover this
#118
April 16th, 2009 19:01
Thanks to everyone for their work.
OUT THE BLACK
KING BARRY
DEAR VILLEZ
GONE TO LUNCH
I will go e/w if the odds allow and I’m keen to keep Tricky onside if the odds work out I’ll have to back it just to cover my stakes.
This is harder than this seasons other Nationals and I haven’t got a couple of big price horses to make backing them all viable.
GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL.
#119
April 16th, 2009 19:02
Initial thoughts about tomorrow’s racing:
2:20 – Curragower
4:00 – Mister McGoldrick (!)
4:35 – Soliya
5:45 – The Shy Man
Anyone have any views on these races?
#120
April 16th, 2009 19:50
In race card order we have:
Brooklyn Brownie who fell at the second fence in the GN.I feel that this is really an after thought,but is a best price of 25/1 with hills.
Chief Dan George in my opinion the one to beat,best price of 7/1 with ladbrokes,blue square, sporting bet and betfred.
West End Rocker who is a 7 year old so didn’t come into my original calculations but also looks ideal,his best price is 10/1 with many bookies.
Nine De Silva would worry me slightly that he’s never won a chase but my earlier research suggest he was a top class hurdler.Cheltenham might have been his main target but the trainer as a good record in this race.Best Price of 8/1 with everyone.
Sound Accord jumps to the right and might not be use to large fields as many of his races are in small fields.22/1 at Hills.
Merigo who also is a likely candidate,if he lines up(trainer wants safe ground) his price is 11/1 with bet 365.
Out The Black is an 11 year old,but at 18/1 with bet 365 looks an interesting runner.
Hello Bud on the main looks another interesting one.One bad run but his overall form looks good and a 25/1 with ladbrokes looks tempting.
My selections if I can get decent odds on them is
Chief Dan George
Merigo
Best Outsiders are
Hello Bud
Out The Black
Good luck everyone will let you know how I did.
#121
April 16th, 2009 21:00
Great work Neil from day one. -appreciate it.
Good luck .
#122
April 16th, 2009 21:03
Rascal i Like your website and will be using it to hopefully find lots of winners. Grand National Winners going on to win the scottish version in the same year. Only one springs to mind RED RUM in 1974
#123
April 16th, 2009 21:06
Brian -thanks and good luck.
#124
April 16th, 2009 21:34
Mind you Rummy was an exceptional horse. Ps I was too young to back him in 74 but he was the first horse I backed when he ran in 77 race. Still relive the memories when I see a replay. Must have been beginners luck.
#125
April 16th, 2009 22:00
Rascal also I think that little polvier only got as far as the chair in the grand national in the same year he won the scottish version (1987) but my facts are fuzzy on that. Maybe someone else would have a better idea.
#126
April 16th, 2009 22:20
Rascal just to let you know that I’ve checked my facts on the free encyclopedia and Little Polveir did run in the 87 national. Doesn’t say where it came down, but I remember it was the chair. Hope these facts are of use to you.
#127
April 16th, 2009 22:34
This fact might be a crumb of comfort if you fancy Brooklyn Brownie
#128
April 16th, 2009 22:41
After so much posting in this Grand National forum I’m just simply posting my selections today. There is no real logic behind these:
Brooklyn Brownie e/w – because I had a lot of money on him in the national and he owes me!
L’Aventure e/w – quite simply, because he is my favourite ever horse!
I’ll probably do a win bet on Betfair on the day and will post my arguments for that one
#129
April 17th, 2009 06:04
With Irish Rapture pulling out of race my main fancy as gone, again thanks to this site i waited till after declorations so have not lost my stake. Although lost heavilly on Rambo backed Comply or Die £100 e/w so made a couple of hundred. Thanks again to this sites hard work put £30 e/w on Market Niche returned £1,205 so with this is mind i have staked £100 to win on out the black at 18/1 with 365 bet. This is my only bet regardless of outcome many thanks to Rascal great annalysis, on my reconing you are due an outright winner and this is the best supported horse here.
#130
April 17th, 2009 08:56
After further studying my three against the field for tomorrow are
1. Dear Villez
Classy horse who gave 3 pounds and finished in front of my will in the henessey . harry skeltons 5lb claim could be crucial . Hennessy runners seem to have a good record in this … gingembre,take control,run for paddy
2. Out the Black – been running in some very classy races this season and comes into this on the top of his game and loves fast ground . reunited with Tom O’Brien who partnered him to Grimthorpe glory – like to back a horse who has ran well in one of those big 3m doncaster chases … ryalux and grey abbey are good examples
3. Hello Bud – gutsy tough little customer who jumps for fun . guaranteed to stay and will bounce off the ground …only question is can he last out in front till the winning post!
If there is any of the novices who are going to prove troublesome i suspect it will be chief dan george whos been aimed for this race and comes into this a relatively fresh horse and looks like a paris pike type of novice…
Anyway good luck all – cant wait till tomorrow . i love this race even though i would argue its one of the hardest nationals to pick the winner of… ill play up some of my niche market winnings…
lets hope its the end of the grand national shocks.. i think weve already had more than a bellyful ..
good luck all
#131
April 17th, 2009 10:22
Immense thanks Neil – that is a huge help and I will try to update my site later today to reflect that statistic (won’t change my outcome but the info is very useful). Thanks also to bobby jo – really pleased you are both enjoying the site. I’ve got loads of exciting plans for it but your support at this early stage is very much appreciated and makes all the work worthwhile.
#132
April 17th, 2009 10:35
Rascal – just to add – had a look at your site and the work thats gone into the scottish national analysis is outstanding ..a very interesting read …faboulous work and well appreciated and im very glad to see your top tip is in my 3 as well …!
#133
April 17th, 2009 10:47
Got my three for the race: Out The Black, L’ Adventure and Merigo.
Think I’ve got a wide spectrum of outcomes covered. L’ Adventure fits all bar one of my stats, good age, goes on the ground, distance, top 5 last time out, won class 1/2 chase, 6 less/than 6 runs this season, ran within last 60 days, won chase over 10k, run in 10+ chases, run a chase with 10+ horses, has come in top three this season – his only failing is not recording his best RPR in last/second to last race. He has a low OR but I think setting a limit/bracket is to risky judging by what’s happened in recent yrs.He also seem s to be coming back into some crediable form.
Out The Black only slips up on age (11yrs) last 11yr to win was 1997 I think?!! But as per an earlier post – he has ran in some quality races this term and loves the ground!) and, therfore, I think, has an excellent chance with a good price.
Merigo – Again fits all above stats apart from not having run in 10+ chases. He has a win on good ground so shouldn’t be a problem.
I’ve swerved CDG as he’s only had five chase runs and has not won a CHASE with 10+ runners (5 novice only). He’s also the FAV!!!
#134
April 17th, 2009 10:49
*blushing* thanks silver birch. i’ll get a big head if you’re not careful
let’s hope out the black comes good or at least one of my top few. otherwise i will be blushing lol
#135
April 17th, 2009 11:20
Rascal another tit bit about National winners going on to win other big races that season. MR FRISK and DURHAM EDITION the first 2 in 1990 was the first 2 (same order) in the Whitbread (aka Bet 365). I know that these facts are ancient history in racing terms but just thought you would like to know.
#136
April 17th, 2009 11:38
Rascal – great work on your site
Be interested to compare notes on Derby shortlist after the trials
#137
April 17th, 2009 12:49
seems to be a lot of money going on to Hello Bud, but I’ve decided that I’m going to avoid ‘improving 11 year olds’ this time!….may top up my bets by having small ew on L’Aventure.
#138
April 17th, 2009 13:01
So Mauren….Hello Bud or Out The Black???
#139
April 17th, 2009 13:03
The more I look at this race the worse it looks in terms of quality
Dear Villez has a reasonable chance off top weight
But I’m going to stick with a Novice – That’s Rhythm – should have plenty of improvement at the trip, loves the ground, has jumped well, has some nice form with According To Pete (subsequently won a couple of races) and has been aimed at the race
Sure it has no form in big fields but then it has never run badly in a big field either
Merigo (if trainer runs) and Sound Accord as savers
#140
April 17th, 2009 13:11
So Maureen….Hello Bud or Out The Black???
#141
April 17th, 2009 13:37
Hello Bud is the one I’m tempted to back, but hopefully am going to stick with my original ones [may not bother with L'Aventure either]. I don’t think I’ve ever had a bet in this race before, but I know I’ve always thought of it as being won by an improving novice. Tend to forget that Nine de Sivola is a novice, because he seems to have been around for ages. Get the feeling that Merigo won’t run; they seem to think a lot of this horse and won’t risk him if the ground isn’t right for him. Brooklyn Brownie would really annoy me because of backing him in the National. Sea Diva would be my best result, but to be honest, I really haven’t got a clue with this race!
#142
April 17th, 2009 13:42
One of the horses in the first race at ayr broke down when challenging for the lead at the last – i dont think that’ll do much for those trainers who r pondering whether to run their horses or not 2moro – the suns out and theres a drying wind and it looked pretty fast enough in the 1st race..
#143
April 17th, 2009 13:46
…might overdo the watering tonight which will in turn disadvantage those that like to bounce off the ground
lose lose situation really
#144
April 17th, 2009 13:48
…another reason to keep antepost bets sensible because these last minute changes to the going can literally render months of studying useless as well as cost punters dearly
#145
April 17th, 2009 13:53
OK guys n gal..
Of the ‘form’ horses it’s got to be Merigo and Out The Black.
Also in there are Brooklyn Brownie and L’Aventure.
If Brooklyn is unscathed from his early Aintree fail he is a huge danger. Former Welsh winner L’Aventure turns it on with any notice at the drop of a hat and therefore is dismissded at peril.
Arteea’s great GN effort would have him right in the mix, but surely too tired from GN – though to be on safe side is worth a flutter at the long odds.
#146
April 17th, 2009 13:58
this whole watering malarkey causes mayhem… 2 horses killed in the 1st race today and another slipped up on the bend into the home straight . whats the betting now they put half of loch ness on the course overnight and end up with false dead ground tomorrow …
#147
April 17th, 2009 14:02
backed l’aventure each way at 50/1 cos she’s only carrying 9-9 and won the welsh national before.. hoping she can find something. im loving claimers after church island each way in the irish anyway
also backed Out The Black black win only at 25/1 thanks to you guys advice
will this be on at the races like the irish national was? if not where can i find it. thanks
#148
April 17th, 2009 14:19
Zapperx,
Ayr is a RacingUK course but the big race will be on Channel 4.
#149
April 17th, 2009 14:22
Whats happening at Ayr; there are no results coming up..are they still looking at the track? What a fiasco.
#150
April 17th, 2009 14:25
Racing has been delayed by around 30mins because officials and jockeys have been examining the bend where the horse slipped up.
#151
April 17th, 2009 14:31
5 for the race at the moment (without checking ground/track/class performance)
Merigo
———
Out the Black
L’aventure
———
Nine de Sivola
King Barry
Seems to be similar to you guys. Must be question marks over Merigo turning up.
Cheers
#152
April 17th, 2009 14:34
or Nine de Sivola with Ferdy just losing one of his horses.
#153
April 17th, 2009 14:37
another win for Kim Bailey; his horses are flying at the moment..really pleased for him; how long before he has a really high profile horse again. Will be interesting to see what he says about the ground at Ayr on his website.
#154
April 17th, 2009 14:44
Cant see Ferdy taking his horses out as he targets this meeting every year. Ground at this meeting is 9 x out of 10 on the fast side so people should not be surprised by the conditions. While it is never good to loose a horse the ground can not be soley responsible, although this would not be the 1st time Ayr had problems with the ground……
#155
April 17th, 2009 14:56
I agree about Ferdy. He has got a good record at this meeting and in the Scottish National itself so can’t see him pulling his horses out. Could have some non-runners tomorrow though:
Nicky Richards has warned that both his runners, According To John and Native Coral are doubtful for tomorrow’s Scottish Grand National, unless there is appreciable rain, which is not forecast.
Richards said: “It is very possible that neither of mine will run.”
#156
April 17th, 2009 15:51
A low price winner in this GN I think. A fun bet +.
Two against the field who meet the trends and are in the top six in the betting (where I think the winner will be):
Chief Dan George
Merigo
Chief Dan George looks very good to me. Both runners have their best RPR in their last race.
#157
April 17th, 2009 21:48
Here’s something considered (including myself.) Nine De Sivola has been here before. Two years ago, that time only finding Hot Weld too good by half a length. If Merigo gets pulled out then might do Nine instead. He is knocking at the door.
#158
April 17th, 2009 23:39
I started this trend by posting the basic stats, and have read with interest the comments since and additional stats. Great work once again.
My two main bets are as follows:
MERIGO
CHIEF DAN GEORGE
I will also be having a saver on NINE DE SIVOLA.
HOwever, the best stats bet on the card tomorrow is undoubtedly MEDERMIT in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2.50. Alan Kings runner has a perfect “profile” and looks cracking value at around 3/1.
#159
April 18th, 2009 01:42
Glad you come to the same conclusion as me PF. I hope its a case of “GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE.” and not “FOOLS RARELY DIFFER.” we will see.
#160
April 18th, 2009 04:21
Thats Rhythm,Out The Black or Hello Bud? cant choose between the 3
#161
April 18th, 2009 09:02
out the black all the way, still get over 20’s on betfair and is a lively outsider
#162
April 18th, 2009 09:46
There was a lot to like about Out The Black’s win at Doncaster in February and I am delighted he’s getting a chance in one of the Nationals. Should love the ground and if he doesn’t unseat O’Brien then I think it’s a smart bet in a very difficult race to be confident about.
#163
April 18th, 2009 09:53
Just watched morning line and using past info & Tanya tit bits King Barry looks to be screaming out. One problem his rating is 130. Rascal also gives him a red mark; but he is third in rascal table. Rascal if you can reply before the race what do you make of King Barry?
#164
April 18th, 2009 11:00
New infomation and this changes everything for me,better late than never.Reading Timeform Chief Dan George is unreliable and has hinted at temperament more than once.
Merigo can stay the distance but even if he lines up (doubtful in my mind)he jumps to the right,not a good sign.
Hello bud acts on Heavy
West End Rocker raced lazily on his second/third starts.
This means my selections are now
Nine De Silva because of his trainers excellent record in this race,also finishing a close second 2 years ago.
Out The Black is a consistent type
Finally King Barry because his weight is ideal
Sorry to have misled anyone to Chief Dan George but I was really keen on him and I might still have a wager on him because of an important lesson I learned some years ago.NEVER CHANGE YOUR MIND!!!
#165
April 18th, 2009 11:02
Hello to All, does anyone know if any ‘firms’ are going 5 places?
Thanx
#166
April 18th, 2009 11:13
Have had small ew’s on Merigo [in case he runs] and L’Aventure [she is so consistent and rarely doesn't get placed]; so it’s Nine de Sivola [main bet] Sea Diva, Chiaro and Gone to Lunch. I know Nine de Sivola has seconditis, but coming second in two nationals as a novice can’t be too bad.Still worried about the cheekpieces but they may just work. Good luck everybody!
#167
April 18th, 2009 11:18
A literal interpretation of King Barry’s form against Church Island would give him a reasonable chance off a low weight in a pretty shocking race (although you could argue that Church Island improved for the blinkers in the IGN)
I’d be concerned though that King Barry has never run in a decent race – consider the other recent 10 year old winners who had been pitched in better company:
Ryalux – placed in Racing Post Chase
Grey Abbey – 4th in the SGN year before
Run For Paddy – 7th in Hennessy
Would be a bit disappointing if at least one of the improving Novices couldn’t beat this one
#168
April 18th, 2009 11:30
If King Barry does run well then the Church Island form will take a boost and make the Irish Raptor and Darkness form at Newbury look very strong – on good ground DARKNESS might be the one for next week’s slog at Sandown – especially if a certain AP McCoy takes the ride
#169
April 18th, 2009 11:33
Neil
KING BARRY is one of the horses I fear most this afternoon but I will stick to my guns and say that he will find the ground too fast (his Ayr win came on heavy ground), the Class 2 win came back in 2006 and his official rating is now fifteen pounds higher than the Ayr win. His best Topspeed Rating is 112 (again in 2006) and that earned the red mark in my analysis. Can see KING BARRY staying the trip but others will be too fast for him, I fear, and with a 62.5% strike rate there are other outsiders with better place claims – THAT’S RHYTHM for example who should like the surface.
Hope that helps.
#170
April 18th, 2009 11:35
Out The Black still seems the all round good choice. Placed over 33f/2nd in C1, likes good ground, won a 32k C2. Form with Niche Market at 24f, beaten 6 lengths and giving Irish Nat winner 5lbs, two best RPR postings in last two runs. Will Merigo run?. If not Out The Black, Hello Bud, Sound Accord, Brooklyn Brownie.
#171
April 18th, 2009 11:52
Just thought I would pass on some stats information for the flat today.
Based on trends, the following horses qualify in their respective races at Newbury:
2.05 – John Porter Stakes
ROYAL AND REGAL
CENTENNIAL
2.35 – Spring Cup
MIA’S BOY
ZAAHID
HUZZAH
3.10 – Fred Darling
BAILEYS CACAO
INFAMOUS ANGEL
LASSARINA
SARISKA
3.45 – Greenham
SHAWEEL
VOCALISED
Although I don’t personally get involved on the flat until May, SHAWEEL would be the trend horse with the best chance based on RPR ratings.
#172
April 18th, 2009 11:58
Thanks for the advice rascal. You start off your advice to me by saying you fear him. If you were a bookmaker what price would you chalk him up at.
#173
April 18th, 2009 12:20
Merigo’s out.
#174
April 18th, 2009 12:20
My short list for my main bet is down to:
That’s Rhythm
West End Rocker
Out the Black
Very tempted to lay Tricky Trickster
#175
April 18th, 2009 12:52
phew! glad I managed to hold back on Merigo, my main fancy other than Out the Black, its nice when trainers give real assessments of whether their horse will even line up, its so considerate to us lot and the horse, would have hated to see them risk it and come to grief, which seems to have happened too frequently in recent weeks.
good luck everyone
My main hope is for safe racing today, and the only black mark is Out The Blacks victory! with the Brownie.. who owes some of us some faithful payback somewhere nearby
#176
April 18th, 2009 13:00
Jockey change King Barry now ridden by Timmy Murphy
#177
April 18th, 2009 13:05
As for Merigo I did warn you in an earlier comment. Hope none on here went on too heavily and if you did I hope you got non runner no bet.
#178
April 18th, 2009 13:07
Good question – I am not a bookmaker but if I were I’d have the following odds up:
CHIEF DAN GEORGE 6/1
OUT THE BLACK 10/1
TRICKY TRICKSTER 10/1
NINE DE SIVOLA 10/1
TRICKY TRICKSTER 12/1
THAT’S RHYTHM 14/1
HELLO BUD 14/1
KING BARRY 16/1
BROOKLYN BROWNIE 16/1
GONE TO LUNCH 16/1
SOUND ACCORD 18/1
CHIARO 18/1
L’AVENTURE 25/1
DEAR VILLEZ 30/1
COE 30/1
ARTEEA 30/1
SEA DIVA 50/1
LE TOSCAN 66/1
So the bookies have it about right with KING BARRY I think.
#179
April 18th, 2009 13:21
Thanks rascal
#180
April 18th, 2009 13:34
Sorry, had TT in twice – should have been west end rocker at 12s.
CHIEF DAN GEORGE 6/1
OUT THE BLACK 10/1
NINE DE SIVOLA 10/1
TRICKY TRICKSTER 10/1
WEST END ROCKER 12/1
THAT’S RHYTHM 14/1
HELLO BUD 14/1
KING BARRY 16/1
BROOKLYN BROWNIE 16/1
GONE TO LUNCH 16/1
SOUND ACCORD 18/1
CHIARO 18/1
L’AVENTURE 25/1
DEAR VILLEZ 30/1
COE 30/1
ARTEEA 30/1
SEA DIVA 50/1
LE TOSCAN 66/1
#181
April 18th, 2009 13:47
Tricky Trickster OUT – N/R
#182
April 18th, 2009 13:48
nice to see your site taking shape Rascal, good work! Glad to see Gone to lunch came second on your points system, so why is he not in your top4? I was just about to post how little this horse has been noticed here. I assume its the weight and not run more than 25f. I think this race is wide open the more I look at it, but me bets is on, lets go!
#183
April 18th, 2009 13:58
With the withdrawal of MERIGO then GONE TO LUNCH would now make my top four – OTB,CDG,NDS,GTL. Will in effect be carrying top weight and the Cheltenham run (pulled up) is a big negative for me. Another very good each way bet though.
#184
April 18th, 2009 14:03
Supposedly he banged his nose quite badly at Cheltenham and finished distressed; hopeully it hasn’t affected his confidence too much.
#185
April 18th, 2009 14:11
Just to let you know that my bets are on. Many thanks to the people on here who helped me formulate my opinions on the race. In case I loose the final decision in my bets were mine. I gone win on Chief Dan George & Nine De Silvola and each way on Out The Black (price taken of 16) & King Barry (same price).
#186
April 18th, 2009 14:47
1st Hello Bud(MADE ALL!! 11yr old also), 2nd Gone to Lunch, 3rd Out the Black, 4th Chiaro
#187
April 18th, 2009 14:47
Well done Hello Bud backers
The key this week at Ayr seems to be horses that have produced one of their best performances on GF
With that in mind I’ll be backing Caracciola and Beggar’s Cap
#188
April 18th, 2009 14:50
And Halla San
#189
April 18th, 2009 14:51
Hello bud pillar to post victory. I think someone on here said about putting half loch ness on it, as I concluded it needed heavy. Thanks for those who helped me picked Black. Full Return is Winner Hello Bud 12, second is Gone To Lunch 12, third is Out The Black 12, fourth is Chiaro 10 don’t know fifth. Was fun trying to work this out. Thanks for everyones input.
#190
April 18th, 2009 14:56
Hey
Thanks all for the stats. Not had time to get involved in conversation for this National but have followed the discussion and noted all the trends. On looking through them all the key trends I used were…
1. Won 24+ 19/20
2. Won 25f+ 8/10
3. Placed 25f+ 20/20
4. Placed 27f+ 16/20
5. Won 1 of last 9 chases. 19/19
6. Won or placed at 27f+ or at furthest distance run. 20/20
7. Won 2 chases 18/20
8. Won 3 chases 17/20
9. Run in 10 chases.
There were 3 horses which met all these key trends. They were:
1. Out the Black
2. Hello Bud
3. King Barry
Backed all 3 e/w. Used my free bet with Stan James for first 2 e/w’s which I had from backing Character Building for the GN
.
Couldn’t believe my luck when I had the 1st 3 throughout most of the race and even turning into the straight had a 1,2,3 with most of the leading fancies off the bridle and struggling. 1st and 3rd and a lovely payout. Least Character Building money was good for something ay
Thanks everyone, and hope you all won something.
Ells
1
#191
April 18th, 2009 15:03
well done all that went for Bud, we all coulda had any of those 4 ey. but I just had Blacky, didn’t back last minute thought in Gone to lunch but hey he didn’t win, so pocket money. Great to watch 1st 4 most the way round HB, KB, OTB and BB jumped a perfect round, BB does not stay does he.
#192
April 18th, 2009 15:11
Lough, snap! Church Island and Niche Market, thanks Brian, and now Hello Bud and Out The Black. Faith and sanity restored, got a list now for GN 2010. Will post soon on GN analysis thread.
#193
April 18th, 2009 15:13
Channel 4 commentary mentioned an 11 yr old winner against the stats? Why? In the past 14 years there was an 11 and 12 yr old.
#194
April 18th, 2009 15:15
bit of ew money back. What an impressive finish from Gone to Lunch. Got a nice little shortist for the main GN now. Think i’ll be getting on Dear Villez early, who looks to have gone a similar route to CoD who had a good run in the Hennessy and a poor one in the SN
#195
April 18th, 2009 15:18
…of course The Polomoche had winning form on GF too!
#196
April 18th, 2009 15:34
Crisp – Channel 4 probably scan the RP trends last 10 years for their ’stats’ – not as diligent as you – well done on successive National wins
From a pure gut instinct I can’t see any of the top 3 three winning the GN next year – I had it down as a poor race and that’s why I went for Novices because nothing with experience really stood out
Also the ground (must be slightly firmer than good with all the sunshine and virtually all the winners of the handicaps with strong GF form) will be very different because we know that Aintree will be watered and the other side of good
#197
April 18th, 2009 15:37
Can’t wait crisp 73 but personally I start studying National when weights come out next feb. It’s the one race a year I go nuts on. Still it won’t arm me to start with a few ideas
#198
April 18th, 2009 15:47
Pablo, you may be right about Scots Nat. HB and OTB both 12 next year- I can’t find a 12 yr old winner of the GN who hadn’t raced in it before, strange but true. Having said that I think we may be due a veteran win, lots of 11,12yr olds on the list.
#199
April 18th, 2009 15:59
“I can’t find a 12 yr old winner of the GN who hadn’t raced in it before, strange but true.”
I guess the trainer really should have figured out if the horse was a National type by the age of 11
Gone To Lunch will probably have OR over 150 – great effort off effectively top weight (and has some decent form) – but maybe too high in the weights for GN next year – unless Denman runs
Will go on my ‘with Denman’ shortlist
#200
April 18th, 2009 16:04
It was funny after the race when Hello Bud’s owner is talking about conquering the world and Twiston Davies is all, ‘yeah today is a good win but..’
#201
April 18th, 2009 16:16
Amazing performance by Hello Bud [and his trainer!]. Bitterly disappointed with Nine de Sivola’s performance; was obvious by half way that he wasn’t going anywhere. Chief Dan George ran in snatches; I would have loved to have seen him run a big race. Did McCoy leave it a bit late with Gone to Lunch, or would another jockey have not even got second? Sea Diva and L’Aventure staying on as usual but not good enough [as usual!]. Congratulations to Buddy backers!
#202
April 18th, 2009 16:21
He mentioned Irish Raptor too, though he couldn’t remember the Topham – er er at Liverpool
Well he’ll be back at Liverpool next April NTD and I hope you have him fit, well and with Paddy Brennan in the saddle
#203
April 18th, 2009 16:37
Congratulations to all who went with Hello Bud.
Hopefully the Irish and Scots natioanls have replenished most peoples pockets after teh english version and roll on 2010 when we can start our assault on the bookies again.
Lots of hard work to be done before then tho and hopefully there will be people using this site all year long.
But for those that wont pop by til next year then thanks a lot for the crack, tips & stats and look forward to hearing from you all next year.
#204
April 18th, 2009 16:44
I’am off to the “Poor House” now with the kids and the wife, I’am told you have to eat porridge for every meal and make mail bags for 12hours, still better than starving in the streets.
And in the real world …..
At this rate we will all end up there! Its the last time I ever invest (fun bet or not)on the IN or SN, so many chnages in ground conditions, late withdrawals et etc and so very few posts with any mention of the winners (lets be honest about it). Thank God I only had fun bets on both and my big gamble is still on to recoup the GN money (i hope to post the datails later this week when all my own money is on).
Will be able to post the best OR/RPR lists soon (on GN Final analayis thread)when the SN RPR’s are out – this should give us some pointers to next years GN. Any early suggestions anyone? – one or two good profiles already mentioned. For me the work for the GN 2010 starts the day after the GN 2009! (and the same each yar).
#205
April 18th, 2009 17:11
Everyone the still the bet 365 at sandown for us to lose our shirts on. Brrr its cold without my shirt. Only joking remember keep with in your budget and don’t give them anything back.
#206
April 18th, 2009 17:42
Too right Neil, they took enough off us on April 4th!
Systemsman, are old ‘friends’ Parsons Legacy and Character Building are ticking all the 2010 GN boxes at the moment. Full observations/ thoughts after Sandown- lets get winner next Saturday!
#207
April 18th, 2009 17:47
Will Snoopy Loopy be top weight for next week’s race with Order of Merit points up for grabs?
#208
April 18th, 2009 18:45
Yeehah .. what a day
– I went down to Ayr and watched in the glorious sunshine as the brave little Hello Bud led from start to finish and held of the late challenge of the great a.p . great stuff. i managed to get a fiver on betfair at 130 /1 on Monday night . between that and niche market its been a fab week and has helped heal some of the aintree wounds …. i hope some of the regulars and others alike managed to catch the buddy…. as I said tough and gutsy customer ….! thats three nationals now . the southern , tne somerset and the scottish..:-)
#209
April 18th, 2009 19:18
129/1 sounds like a good bet (i think you mean). Sounds like a good bet. Were you tempted to lay off for a guarantee profit or were you sweating and hoping. I think I’d have laid off personally.
#210
April 18th, 2009 19:44
Neil , i was sweating and hoping and nearly passed out when gone to lunch swooped after the last … either incredibly brave or incredibly stupid . still .. it was only a fiver … hopefully a few others on at fancy prices as well.. time to take stock now and begin the long road to aintree in 2010 . ill have a little dabble on the whitbread next and then confess all to the missus who will earmark my winnings towards a holiday at some point this year…
#211
April 18th, 2009 20:06
Congrats to all who made a profit today.
Got the 2nd and third so showed a small profit but not good enough.
Neil-you had Buddy earlier on and then went off it.Looking forward to your input for next Saturdays race and thanks for your work.
Backfitting is pointless-I like this site because the vast majority are honest and willing to share their considered views to try and make a few bob.
Buddy failed two of my main trends-not won at least C2 chase or even come close.
Won no more than 3 hcap chases 18/20-Buddy had won six.As Maureen said earlier backing an improving 11YO sounds mad but the Twister has pulled it off and Paddy B rode it with total confidence.
The other 11YO,s to win had graded form .
Thaks to crisp 73,Brian and Pablo for invaluable stats.Any layers out there would have sussed CDG as a big negative.
#212
April 18th, 2009 21:59
Story of my life. Fancied Party Politics for 92 grand national then went off him and did Romany King instead. In case some of you don’t know Pp won and Rk was second which is why I said never change your mind.
#213
April 18th, 2009 22:38
As soon as I got something to input to any race I will pass it on. Hopefully it will be invaluable to someone. For example I said for this race something in form won last time out or placed.
#214
April 18th, 2009 23:13
I just followed Performance Factor stats overlaid the factors I thought appropriate and prices at the time and try to work out value for money at the time.
#215
April 19th, 2009 09:17
Sandown Gold Cup.
16/19 recorded their best ever RPR that season. The three that didn’t had all recorded their best in previous seasons… at Sandown!
18/19, 11/11 recorded an RPR of 137 or more.
17/19 had a chase strike rate of 40% or more- the two that didn’t had placed at 29f or more and carried 10st on the day.
17/19 won/placed at 25f or more.
14/19 10-10 or less to victory.
Four of the five that carried 10-13 or more had;
RPR 163 plus/ TS 156 plus.
OR 152 TO 165
(Puntal odd one out, RPR 149, TS 126 carried 11-4/OR 142,and curiously is only winner not to win/place at 24f)
11/11 top 3 in C1 chase.
#216
April 19th, 2009 13:13
Wing Commander Showlad reporting in! Sir!
The Welsh for me is now by FAR the most important and greatest yard stick for the GN.
Well Glad I kepot my head and more or less recouped on EW bets on Curch I sland and Out The Black.
Looking forward to the real deals keeping going on the Grand National Analysis thread, of whom I can hopefully be lucky enough to count myself amongst.. Let’s get the core trends agreed, keep the fringe ones to ourselves and move forward. The most impressive for me from the 2 national Nationals were Church Island and of course Hello Bud with Out The Black showing potential.
Best to All – let’s keept it going through the Summer and Autumn – bfeore you know it, lol, God blessing us, we’ll all be escaping the commercialism of Christmas and looking to the Welsh National
#217
April 19th, 2009 13:14
Admin can we get a thread please posted up for the Sandown Gold Cup?
#218
April 19th, 2009 15:12
Showlad the already a thread on the Sandown Gold Cup in place.
#219
April 19th, 2009 17:47
crisp 73 great facts again on the Sandown Gold Cup hepefully a small bet will pay off this time – I am going to do some study myself on this one, given time, rather than just look at others posts.
Silver Birch use your winnings and take the wife and family on holiday! Now if only I can get one of those on investmesnts next Saturday – come on people help me out and I will see what i can do also. Anymore trends for Sandown Gold Cup anyone?
It will help if people can post their top 3 against the field from now to Friday as by Saturday the value will be all gone (but dont get me wrong better Saturday morning than Saturday night!!)
Anyone know the expected going?
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