Irish Grand National 2009
The Irish Grand National has proved to be one of the most interesting races of the whole year when it comes to looking for future Aintree Grand National runners/winners.
Recent winners at Fairyhouse Butlers Cabin and Hear The Echo have gone on to be well supported at Aintree and Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde have managed to win both races.
Even though Fairyhouse is a right handed track the test of stamina and the extremely testing fences ensure that it compares favourably with any of the other races seen as a “prep” race for future Aintree winners.
This year the race at Fairyhouse in on Monday 13th April and currently there are 73 runners engaged with bookmakers showing a variety of horses at the top of a very open market. A number of the currently fancied runners include: Witchita Lineman, Emma Jane, Royal County Star and Welsh National hero Notre Pere.
By the sounds of things you are keen just to get a thread up and running on this race so I’ll leave it there for the time being.
Good luck.
This post has 186 comments
#1
April 6th, 2009 11:58
pablo posted this in the other thread:
- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
#2
April 6th, 2009 12:16
i like the look of arbor supreme and drumconvis but they both break the OR stat
badgerlaw who finished 2nd in the midlands national to HT (who he gave a stone to) looks good to me on 9-3 but he’s 90/1 on betfair so guess he wont run?
take my predictions with a pinch of salt, i only started checking horses form when i was watching you guys trying to get the GN winner. lost a fair bit (to me) on rambo so want to try and get it back with the irish/scottish
#3
April 6th, 2009 12:51
Emma Jane is the one I like going forward to next year’s GN. Not sure if he (she?) meets the stats for the Irish version though.
#4
April 6th, 2009 13:19
I’d be worried about following the OR stat this year as you would have to exclude the top 25 horses in the field. Also, if Notre Pere runs, only two horses rated 125-136 are set to carry more than 10st (Himalayan Trail and Niche Market). What’s the minium weight that they have to carry over there?
#5
April 6th, 2009 15:12
At this stage Parson’s Pistol is my main fancy provided a few at the top come out
But haven’t really looked at the race properly yet
#6
April 6th, 2009 15:26
Niche Market is one of those that meets most of the above stats. Seen that he was a general 33/1 shot with bookies but much shorter on Betfair so have had a little bit on him just now.
#7
April 6th, 2009 15:39
max weight 11-10 min 9-12 for first time this year
#8
April 6th, 2009 15:53
emma jane will love the good ground and trip and off a light weight will be thereabouts… ebony jane last mare to win !!
#9
April 6th, 2009 16:48
This is as far as i’ve got guys, rules out about half the field. This is based on last 20 years. Hear the Echo seemed to be an odd one out last year. They are not completely precise but not far off, so you may need to check it, unfortunately only rules out about half the field. Let me know what other stats you want.
7-11
3m win
3-8 runs in season
LTO top 7 unless F
LESS THAN 50 DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
4-22 CHASES
COMPLETED 3M 4 TIMES unless a good winning performance LTO eg. Butlers Cabin
Majority placed in C1-2 In season
I like Arbor Supreme and Niche Market, does seem to be a lot of good horses in the race tho and maybe a potential Grand National winner
#10
April 6th, 2009 16:51
pretty sure bar hear the echo, the last 20 were placed in class 1-2 in season
#11
April 6th, 2009 17:10
15 of last 19 winners ran in a graded chase-all top 4
#12
April 6th, 2009 17:11
3of other 4 novices plus Timbera
#13
April 6th, 2009 17:17
sorry – 16 of last 19 ran graded chase -all top 4
#14
April 6th, 2009 17:20
also 17 of last nineteen had 16 chase runs or less.The other two Feathered[22] and Ebony Jane[19] ran in race last year.
#15
April 6th, 2009 17:41
carried 10-12 or less 15/19- two others classy top weights plus Commanche court and Bobbyjo.The Irish handicapper is trying to do a Phil Smith this year-compressing the weights.Didnt work in this years GN did it!
#16
April 6th, 2009 18:26
Hi-new on here.Been doing stats for IGN.
16 chase runs or less-17/19-feathered[22] and ebony jane19] ran in race last year.
#17
April 6th, 2009 19:50
Just looking at the horses listed at Ladbrokes, I think i’ll take a look at Dear Villez, A New Story and Reveillez
#18
April 7th, 2009 08:38
TC,
Arbor Supreme does look like he could go very close in this. He caught my attention when running out a facile winner over 3m6f at Punchestown last season. Being only a 6yo novice at the rime, my immediate thought was “Grand National 2010.” He’s since won another long-distance chase (3m5f). I don’t think he was entered for Aintree this season so this is presumably the target. My worry is that he’s now rated 140 and Hear The Echo was harshly treated by Phil Smith after winning the race last year. If Arbor Supreme won the Irish National I could see him having to run from somewhere in the mid-high 150s at Aintree next year, which would probably too high a mark to defy. If JP thinks this is a genuine National horse I would definitely not want it to win the Irish National. Similar comments would apply to Wichita Lineman (149) who looks like a Marathon would suit but maybe not a natural over fences, so it will be interesting to see which of JP’s horses line up on the day.
#19
April 7th, 2009 09:32
Some of this is recap of the trends above, but I’m using:
1) Age 7-11 20/20 10/10
2) Weight max 11.04 17/20 10/10
3) 24f+wins min 1 18/20 9/10
4) Best win min 6k 17/20 9/10
5) OR 121-138 17/20 9/10
6) RPR 133-158 17/20 9/10
7) Min 2 chase wins 19/20 9/10
9) Max 4 F / UR 20/20 10/10
10) 3-8 prep runs 19/20 10/10
11) Last race 14-90 days 18/20 8/10
12) Best chase RPR in last chase run 17/20 8/10
Within the above, preference for:
1) 7-9 yo
2) In handicap proper, under 11.00
#20
April 7th, 2009 09:58
Using some of the trends above and focusing on horses with winning form over 3m, wins in good contests and at the right end of the handicap, I’ve shortlisted the following.
40/1 Bella Mana Mou (promising novice)
40/1 Church Island (4th in 2007)
10/1 Emma Jane (recent winner of Leinster National at Naas)
25/1 Newbay Prop (recent 3rd in Kim Muir)
25/1 Parsons Pistol (grade 2 winning novice, fell in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham)
HTH
#21
April 7th, 2009 10:00
I had a list of 8 others who are either doubtful runners or possibly too high in the weights.
Arbor Supreme
Dear Villez
Hoo La Baloo
Niche Market
One Cool Cookie
Royal County Star
Ungaro
Wichita Lineman
#22
April 7th, 2009 10:11
Good ground expected for Irish National
Fairyhouse officials expect the ground to be good or close to that for their Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National meeting next weekend.
The County Meath track stages racing on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with the National staged on the middle day.
“It’s good to yielding at the moment and we’re doing updates each day,” a track spokeswoman told setanta.com.
“A bit of rain is forecast but nothing too bad. We had 5.3mm of rain yesterday and we’re expecting a little more, but for the festival, the weather is expected to be dry.
“As it is good to yielding at the moment, we’re expecting it to be like that for the festival.”
#23
April 7th, 2009 10:26
Thanks for posting up those stats. Had a quick look taking most of those into consideration including wins over 3m+ and min 2 chase wins and have a short(ish) list of the following:
Arbor Supreme
Rare Bob
Niche Market
Patsy Hall
Emma Jane
Pomme Tiepy
Parsons Pistol
Newbay Prop
Bella Mana Mou
Ballytrim
Well Run
#24
April 7th, 2009 12:14
This comment from the trainer of Bella Mana Mou.
“We will give her an entry in the Irish National. If it remains soft, she’ll run but if not, she won’t go,” said Cullen.
“She loves the ground when it is almost unraceable.”
I’d say she is doubtful.
#25
April 7th, 2009 16:34
stayer, regarding Arbor supreme’s OR nest year i would not be worried too much as long as he meets the 11 stone and under for GN, i really believe The GN will be Denman’s target
#26
April 7th, 2009 17:47
If and its a big if Denman does run in the GN (injury could easily take him out) it will be next year or never but I am very happy to take him on as Fav and it should help keep the price higher on a few others we fancy for a while.
#27
April 7th, 2009 17:54
Re: Irish National
Arbor Supreme
Rare Bob
Niche Market
Patsy Hall
Emma Jane
Pomme Tiepy
Parsons Pistol
Newbay Prop
Bella Mana Mou
Ballytrim
Well Run
Church Island (posted by Oedipe)
Oedipe, The Stayer, Gammers and others. Can we get this list down to a more managable four or so using the key trends (taking into aaccount that Bella Mana Mou may be a doubful runner if its not soft)?
Does anyone know the likely ground conditions? If its Good (and Good/Soft)who likes it best?
#28
April 7th, 2009 18:07
Ruling out Bella-4 runs since Jan and only 5th Fairyhouse.
#29
April 7th, 2009 18:31
Systemsman,
Quote fom Oedipe suggests that the going will be good-yielding next weekend.
Looking at the above shortlist the ones to me that would enjoy the ground would be:
Emma Jane – 1 win and 2 places from 3 starts on good ground
Arbor Supreme – 1/1 on good and finished 4/15 on only start on good-yielding
Newbay Prop – Biggest win (Paddy Power) came on good-yielding and other career best efforts have been on good (5th in this last year) and good-soft (3rd in Kim Muir this season).
Those three stand out as horses that would seem to appreciate the likely ground. The others either haven’t had much experience on good ground or their form on it is inconclusive. However, the following do appear to be mudlarks:
Pomme Tiepy
Bella Mana Mou
Ballytrim
#30
April 7th, 2009 19:49
Parsons Pistol – OR136
17 Jan 2009 Naas Grade 2 Novice Chase 24f Sft/Hy 31K (OR122 RPR149)
“Stamina was really at a premium here and considering that they went off at quite a gallop it wasn’t surprising that so few finished. PARSONS PISTOL stayed on better than anything, and it was a good performance for a horse that probably would appreciate better ground. He tracked the clear leader but jumped away at his own pace and he arrived travelling best of all early in the straight. Adequate jumps at the final two fences were all that he needed to produce in the end as he kept on better than his main challenger.”
His best performances have come on soft. Had 2 runs at the Cheltenham Festival on G/S, beaten 49L and fell. Could be the ground, could be the course, could be the travelling, could be the class of opposition. Only other competitive race on Gd/Y was at Punchestown Festival last year, when beaten 58L in a novice hurdle.
Looks opposable.
#31
April 7th, 2009 20:01
Newbay Prop – OR134
27 Dec 2007 Leopardstown Grade B Handicap Chase 24f Gd/Yl 73K (OR117 RRP134)
“A typically open renewal of this valuable handicap saw NEWBAY PROP, blinkered for the first time, leave a dismal effort at Fairyhouse on his previous start behind him as he recovered from an early mistake and came from well off the pace to snatch the verdict in the last few strides.
A winner over 3m5f on soft ground last season, his win resulted in trainer Tony Martin being asked to explain the winner’s improvement in form. No clinical reason was found for his display at Fairyhouse where he was pulled up and Martin’s explanation that the horse had ‘become detached, jumped terribly and lost interest’ and that on this occasion he had ‘jumped and travelled well and wore blinkers for the first time’ was accepted.”
“The person I feel sorry for most of all is Robbie Colgan, but Ross gave this horse a peach of a ride. He was unlucky in this race last year when tipping up at the second last, and I was afraid the ground was too quick for us. I don’t know – you would just have to draw a line through his last run as we found no reason why he ran so bad. This horse needs a slower surface. We’ll look at the likes of the Midlands National at Uttoxeter again.” – Tony Martin, trainer
The suggestion is this horse would appreciate a slower surface, but he ran his career best on Good/Yielding. The forecast good ground at Fairyhouse might even see the trainer withdraw the horse. Has to be respected if lining up but others must be preferred?
#32
April 7th, 2009 20:14
Church Island – OR136
18 Feb 2009 Doncaster Class 2 Veterans Handicap Chase 24f GS 16K (OR128 RPR142)
CHURCH ISLAND looked the most interesting runner to take his place in the line-up. A very promising novice chaser a few years ago, he had failed to live up to expectations in the main but is capable of running well on the odd occasion. The cheekpieces he wore last time were removed and he travelled ominously throughout this race. He hit the front turning in and looked sure to win easily, but he never quickened again and was sometimes sloppy at the fences. However, to his credit, he kept plugging away and did enough for victory. He could follow this victory up if his confidence has been sufficiently boosted and may come into contention for something at the Cheltenham festival. Connections mentioned that he could be turned out fairly quickly for a similar race at Newbury.
28 Feb 2009 Newbury Class 2 Veterans Handicap Chase 27f Gd 15K (OR136 RPR142)
Church Island, raised 7lb for his recent victory in a veterans’ chase at Doncaster, was under pressure with over a circuit to run. He did not give in however, closing down the back, and he ran on well down the straight for a clear second.
His best form has come in this season in two veterans races. Connections probably feel he has a better chance by avoiding the younger horses who may be better handicapped. Indeed, he race in a 3rd veterans chase at Ascot in March; “Mistake 1st, chased leaders, 4th when blundered 11th, not recover, pulled up before 13th”
He was 4th to Butler’s Cabin in the race 2 years ago. I don’t think he will have any ground worries. Would need another career best to win and the way he’s been campaigned suggests he’s been entered in the veterans races to win them, and he therefore looks exposed. However, based on his RPR he’s still just ahead of the handicapper.
#33
April 7th, 2009 20:22
Emma Jane – OR133
14 March 2009 Naas Leinster National 24 Sft 31K (OR126 RPR148)
EMMA JANE, a staying on fourth in the Thyestes Chase on her previous start, got up in the last stride to land the inaugural running of this race introduced as a suitable opportunity for horses being aimed at the John Smith’s Grand National or the Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National.
The winner reversed placings with the Thyestes winner, Preists Leap, and runner-up Chelsea Harbour both of whom are likely to be Aintree bound.
After racing in mid-division Emma Jane lost her place at the ninth fence before making steady progress from 4 out. She went third 2 out and stayed on for pressure on the climb from the final fence to just about shade the verdict.
“One of the options will be the Irish National and she battled well there for Paul to win her fifth race. She has proved a good servant to her owners.” – Harold Kirk, stable spokesman
In this race, she had Southern Vic, Chelsea Harbour and Preists Leap all in behind. Maybe some of those GN runners were not given a hard race. Emma Jane won a 25f chase at the Punchestown Festival last year on good ground.
Has to be a leading player.
#34
April 7th, 2009 20:37
Arbor Supreme – OR140
29 Nov 2008 Fairyhouse Grade C Handicap Chase 29f Sft £19K (OR125 RPR146)
As was the case with all seven races on the card, very little of the proceedings could be seen with any clarity. But there was no denying the superiority of ARBOR SUPREME on his first start since April, when he won over a slightly longer trip at the Punchestown festival.
Trainer Willie Mullins’s fears that the six-year-old might not have been ready enough to do himself justice proved wide of the mark, but plans are now uncertain, with Mullins commenting: “The way he won would suggest he is going to get a hike, which would rule out the Paddy Power at Leopardstown. We might look at either the Grand National or the Irish National later in the season and, if he doesn’t have too much weight, the Thyestes could be a race for him.”
He did indeed take his chance in the Thyestes Chase, finishing 3rd (10L) behind Priests Leap. He was up 15lb since the win at Fairyhouse, but finished one place ahead of Emma Jane who was getting a stone in weight, and Newbay Prop who was a further place and 2 lengths behind and getting 12lbs from Arbor Supreme.
The form of Arbor Supreme, Emma Jane and Newbay Prop is therefore well linked in and looks solid in the context of the Thyestes Chase. On the bare form there is nothing to suggest places could be reversed, but the Irish National is run over 5f further than the Thyestes Chase.
No ground worries for Arbor Supreme, but will be running off a higher mark than any of the placed horses from the last 4 runnings of the race.
#35
April 7th, 2009 22:05
“stayer, regarding Arbor supreme’s OR nest year i would not be worried too much as long as he meets the 11 stone and under for GN, i really believe The GN will be Denman’s target”
If that’s the case – just back Madison Du Berlais – job done
#36
April 8th, 2009 07:57
Thanks for posting that info up Oedipe. My worry about Newbay Prop is that he is 10 and looks exposed compared to some of the others. He has pulled-up twice on good ground as well so might not want it any quicker than good-yielding.
#37
April 8th, 2009 08:07
I agree with you Stayer that Newbay Prop’s best form is probably already in the book. His best RPR figures have been 136, 134, 134, 133, 131, 129, 127. And he’s been tried on all ground and distances, in tongue-ties and blinkers. Really hard to see where any improvement is going to come. Knowing the way the trainer operates, he must be due some poor runs to get his handicap mark down again!
#38
April 8th, 2009 09:44
Oedipe great work. From your info I presume Emma Jane has to be in any short list of 4 against the field, anyone disagree? Now for the other three.
#39
April 8th, 2009 10:02
Emma Jane definitely looks to be the stats pick and has to be on the shortlist.
I’m a bit uneasy about the OR stat here as ruling out horses over 138 puts a line through the top 24 in the handicap. Those include Arbor Supreme (140), Casey Jones (145) and Wichita Lineman (149) who all merit consideration I think.
#40
April 8th, 2009 10:10
The Irish handicapper has made a few changes this year.
“Top weight of 11st 12lb is a departure from the past where the top-weight allotted was 12st and the last five top weights have all been pulled up.
I have dropped a number of horses 1lb or 2lb because historically the extreme distance of the race and the pressure that this puts on the top horses makes the concession to the lower weighted horses that much more difficult.”
Full story here http://tinyurl.com/dko7×9
#41
April 8th, 2009 10:22
Thanks Oedipe. With the first four horses at Aintree all carrying 11st and above and boasting OR’s higher than in recent times, I was reluctant to write off all those rated >138 in this and the fact that the top weight has been dropped by 2lbs only adds to my caution.
#42
April 8th, 2009 10:34
Top rated runners in last ten Irish Grand Nationals
2008 160 Beef Or Salmon PU (12-0)
2007 153 Juveigneur PU (11-8)
2006 143 Our Ben PU (11-12)
2005 153 Le Coudray PU (12-0
2004 149 Artic Jack PU (12-0)
2003 146 Davids Lad 4th (12-0)
2002 164 Commanche Court PU (12-0)
2001 157 Commanche Court 4th (12-0)
2000 144 Bobbyjo PU (12-0)
1999 143 Papillon 10th and last (12-0)
The only 2 that ran with top weight and finished since 2000 are Commanche Court and Davids Lad. And both had won the race in the year before they placed 4th.
Notre Pere looks like he will run, provided the ground is ’safe’. That would keep a lot of them out of the handicap. Emma Jane, for example, would be 2lbs out of the handicap (not insurmountable). Can Ruby do 10st ?
Note Pere article here http://tinyurl.com/ct7v3n
#43
April 8th, 2009 10:46
Not based on going yet (remember everyone who thought it would be good for GN?) but my shortlist so far:
PARSON’S PISTOL
POMME TIEPY
Plus have rated ARBOR SUPREME highly for a while and he is likely to get his ground so might have a bet on this one even though it doesn’t meet some trends
Need to put some more work in when I get some time
#44
April 8th, 2009 10:48
Should have added that Notre Pere’s OR is 163, and he has been given 11-10.
Emma Jane’s OR is 133 and she has 9-12.
So 30lbs difference on official ratings, but Emma Jane would have to race of 10st, and only receive 24lbs.
However, given Notre Pere’s trainer comments and the stats for top weights, he looks an unlikely winner in my opinion.
Hard to see anything below Emma Jane in the handicap capable of improving at a faster rate than this mare.
I would give a slight squeak to Mullins’ other mare in the race, Pomme Tiepy, who has earnt decent prize money without being a prolific winner. Hasn’t progressed at the same rate as her novice contemporaries Albertas Run and Roll Along. Also been off the track 54 days, and Ruby can only ride one of them.
Anyone looking at the form of Emma Jane, please note that she moved stables to Mullins between Feb/Mar 2008, and it’s since then her form has really improved.
#45
April 8th, 2009 10:52
Left EMMA JANE of the list because ARBOR SUPREME should take care of her again – especially on better ground
#46
April 8th, 2009 12:25
Agree the OR stat may go. Having Notre Pere in at the top of the handicap means that OR 138 will be carrying less weight in 2009 than in previous years.
Without having looked in any depth as yet agree Emma Jane should be on the shortlist.
Declarations today – not seen anything official but from Oddschecker looks like the following leading fancies not declared:
Character Building
Patsy Hall
Butlers Cabin
Dear Villez
Offshore Account
Parsons Pistol
According to John
Don’t Push It
Idle Talk
These are the top of the market withdrawals – looks like 47 left in.
#47
April 8th, 2009 13:15
I just wish Emma Jane was on the GN market available at the moment! meets all the stats for that one too, and a bet now could result in a quick lay at less than half the price if she can win the Irish GN
#48
April 8th, 2009 13:25
“Notre Pere looks like he will run, provided the ground is ’safe’. That would keep a lot of them out of the handicap. Emma Jane, for example, would be 2lbs out of the handicap (not insurmountable). Can Ruby do 10st ?”
what is “out of the handicap”? thanks
#49
April 8th, 2009 13:30
That’s right Gammers, 47 left in.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd?race_id=477316&r_date=2009-04-13
#50
April 8th, 2009 13:35
Zapper, there is a minimum weight that must be carried of 10st.
If Notre Pere runs, then Emma Jane has been given 9st 12lbs.
But as it’s a minimum of 10st, she would be 2lbs out of the handicap, i.e. 2lbs more weight than she should be carrying in relation to the top weight.
A most famous recent example was the Hennessy in 2007, when Denman had most of the field running from out of the handicap. (and to think he still had a stone and half in hand!)
#51
April 8th, 2009 13:53
ah right cos i was gonna bet on badgerlaw, but if he’s gotta carry 10 he aint got a chance has he. just makes me wanna back arbor supreme even more.
#52
April 8th, 2009 14:00
In my opinion Badgerlaw will need a few to come out before he gets into the handicap proper. He’s rated 39lbs inferior to Notre Pere and the handicap spread from top to bottom (11-10 to 10-0) is only 24lbs.
I wouldn’t be rushing to back Badgerlaw at this stage. I would advise you wait until the final decs to see if he makes it in and what weight he gets. For sure he won’t be 109/1 on Betfair at that stage, but at least you’ll know he’s taking part.
#53
April 8th, 2009 14:01
Zapper,
You say that but over extreme distances and on extreme ground horses do win from out of the handcap. Last year Hear The Echo won this from 7lbs out of the handicap and Iris De Balme won the Scottish version from over 20lbs outside. Some of the horses in the handicap proper won’t see out 3m5f and some might not go on the ground so if you see a horse out of the handicap that will go on the ground and will stay then they might have a chance, espeically if you think they are open to improvement.
As an example, Emma Jane is going to be 2lbs out of the handicap but I think she is more than 2lbs ahead of the handicapper so it doesn’t worry me.
#54
April 8th, 2009 14:15
Very good point Stayer, last year 9 of the 23 runners were out of the handicap.
Quite a lot of those lower weights also had claimers on board, so the lowest weight carried on the day was 9st 9lbs.
Hear The Echo was ridden by Paddy Flood so he carried the 10st minimum, and as Stayer has said, was 7lbs out of the handicap. Ran off an OR132 and posted a RPR158 – plenty in hand!
#55
April 8th, 2009 14:29
Exactly Oedipe. If this was an competitive 2m handicap chase I would be much more dismissive of any horses running from outiside the handicap. 2m isn’t going to bring stamina into play and so horses at a weights disadavantage are likely to find it difficult to get involved.
But this is over 3m5f and the stamina test will be a leveller as there will be those in the handicap proper that will not get the trip. The existence of Notre Pere will keep a fair few out of the handicap and if they stay/look like appreicating the trip, are suited by the going and perhaps have something in hand of the handicapper, they should be given consideration.
Badgerlaw wouldn’t be my idea of one of them actually. I’m not sure if he is really progressing having finished 5th in the Midlands National from a 3lb lower mark than when 2nd in the race last year. It might have been a better renewal this year though.
#56
April 8th, 2009 15:03
Unfortunately we know that Notre Pere gets the trip so he’s a better top weight than say Beef of Salmon was – howevere he’s off a much higher mark than last year though, tough season, had a setback and might not get ground preference – so one from OOH could win
Making a note of Parson’s Pistol – this one’s going places I think – Aintree material
#57
April 8th, 2009 17:47
Isnt the minimum weight 9-10?Top weight 11-12.
Out of handicap 4/20-7lb twice +3lb and 1lb .
#58
April 8th, 2009 18:01
Also i’m keen on Fairyhouse form.13 of 15 non GB trained runners were top three Fairy.Commanche did not run Fairy + Hear the echo who broke many trends.
My shortlist-
Emma Jane
Newbay Prop
Niche Market
Skip Two
Washington Lad
Arbor Supreme
#59
April 8th, 2009 19:05
I got my Grand National stake money back from Niche Market today because he was ballotted out, and put it straight back on him for the Irish National.
#60
April 8th, 2009 19:24
Good luck to ya Maureen-What price did you get?
#61
April 8th, 2009 22:09
what do we think of one cool cookie?
#62
April 8th, 2009 22:31
Niche Market 33/1 at Laddies [our main office is where the bookies are; I went in today to pick up some stuff for work tomorrow, and as I left my Grand National betting slips blew away, so I ended up running along the road stopping the traffic so I could catch them!]
#63
April 8th, 2009 23:11
Almost completed my study (but Racing Post site down for maintenance!) and this race looks really trappy – just don’t like the look of it at all – plenty in with chances and going will be crucial – hopefully should be some useful pointers to the future – but smallish stakes only for me
Just been on the BBC website and Dublin International Airport has light to heavy rain everyday and most nights until Monday – also the European forecast map has blue all over Eastern Ireland
If this is correct I expect the going to be softer than anticipated – therefore have taken the 40+ available on Bella Mana Mou
If the rains come – this one’s price drops considerably
And it has a good chance too
Also have Skip Two at 50+
Can’t play anything at 10/1 – Mullins has too many and as I said whole shape of the race very trappy with so many unexposed horses
I’ve concentrated on two that should have plenty of stamina at a nice price
#64
April 9th, 2009 07:16
One Cool Cookie – OR147
17 Mar 2009 Down Royal Guiness Chase 26f Yd/Sft 12K (OR149 RPR145)
A good performance from ONE COOL COOKIE, who showed that he stayed this trip and was given an excellent ride to enable him to do so. He set off in front but was happy to take a lead when Giolla An Bhaird wanted to go a couple of strides too quick. He was ridden quite handy before closing up at the second-last and after leading at the last he found enough to hold off his two main rivals, who were probably superior in the staying department. He is likely to head to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday.
“He`s a 149-rated horse and it`s great to have been able to win two races with him this year. He`s a grand horse and I just wish I had a couple more like him, we`ll go for the Irish National probably. Maybe they`ll bring Denman over to keep the weights down.” – Charlie Swan
21 Feb 2009 Fairyhouse Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase 25f Sft 28K (OR149 RPR154)
One Cool Cookie had quite a task at the weights but acquitted himself with plenty of credit. It was the usual sound jumping display from close to the pace but he was being pushed along and apparently struggling before the straight. He did stick to his task well though and was only seen off by the winner between the final two flights. A good run by a horse that´s just becoming one of those that´s difficult to place.
The Bobbyjo Chase was a hot contest, won by Black Apalachi from Snowy Morning, One Cool Cookie in third and Southern Vic and Forget The Past in behind. This would be very much a case of running against his peers, and he did ok but was no match for the winner. The most trainer comments following his last run and win suggest he was worried about the weights, but the inclusion of Notre Pere puts him on a good weight of 10-12. He’s got ability but is yet to prove it over long distances in top class races, and has gone up in the handicap through some good placed runs against better opposition. Some rain will help his chances, but I expect there are some more progessive types off lower weights.
#65
April 9th, 2009 08:50
very interesting…thank you
#66
April 9th, 2009 09:40
Hi All. Are we all discounting Garde?
#67
April 9th, 2009 09:58
Im not Showlad he his on my shortlist of:
Arbour Supreme
Emma Jane
Garde Champetre
Newbay Prop
Niche Market
Skip Two
Bella Mana Mou
One Cool Cookie
Will be studying in more detail tomorrow when i have a bit more time to try and get this list down to about 3.
#68
April 9th, 2009 10:25
Is Garde Champetre a likely runner? I would have thought his target would be the La Touche Cup or one of the other Banks races at Punchestown, which is only a few weeks away.
#69
April 9th, 2009 10:30
brian, can you give your reasons for the ones you discount from your shortlist if you get time?
#70
April 9th, 2009 10:49
Bella Mana Mou is being backed this morning. Decided to take a bit of 40s just now. Ground has to get softer for her= but as Pablo said, there seems to be a lot of rain in the area over the next few days. She’s no 40/1 shot on soft ground.
#71
April 9th, 2009 13:59
This could put a spanner in the works:
“Jim Dreaper has all but ruled top-weight Notre Pere out of Monday’s Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
Winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow earlier in the season, he arguably produced a career-best in the Irish Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup when beaten only five lengths by Neptune Collonges.
Dreaper had to skip Cheltenham with the eight-year-old as he was not quite 100% and fast ground looks like forcing him to miss the Easter weekend showpiece.
“He had a minor problem just before Cheltenham and ever since the day at Chepstow he has had a tiny piece of birch embedded in his stifle area and it just flared up a fortnight before the Gold Cup,” said Dreaper.
“He would have had very little chance on that ground anyway.
“I’m afraid it is looking pretty unlikely he’ll run at Fairyhouse, the forecast rain hasn’t come, it is good ground and the worrying thing is that it will be dry through to Monday which I would think will rule him out.
“He does go on nice ground but it’s just that he is more effective when there is plenty of cut.
“He’s only eight and I would hope the best is yet to come, so for that reason I don’t think we’ll take a chance.
“It is amazing the number of horses you go through before you come up with a proper horse so there is no need for us to take a chance with him,” he told At The Races.”
Anyone know if Airforce One is a likely runner? If he and Notre Pere don’t run the weights would go up by 12lbs.
#72
April 9th, 2009 14:11
Rare Bob – OR140
28 Feb 2009 Navan Novice Chase 24f Sft/Hy 15K (OR- RPR140)
A second win over fences for RARE BOB, who had finished fourth in the Grade 1 2m5f event won by Cooldine at Leopardstown on his previous start. His trainer´s belief that 3m would suit the winner well was born out here and after jumping well throughout, he went to the front 2 out and stayed on well for a decisive victory.
The winner holds a few engagements at Cheltenham but Dessie Hughes´s immediate reaction was to talk more in terms of Fairyhouse and Punchestown with the Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National among the races to be considered.
All of Rare Bob’s best performances have come this season on soft/heavy ground. His RPR chase figures have been very consistent, the last 6 reading back 140,142,141,142,125,142. Is certainly a progressive horse and is in the handicap proper, but more needed this time. Was rated a stone below Cooldine when they met over 2m5f, so needs a similar level of improvement to what the RSA Chase winner delivered at Cheltenham (in my opinion).
Drumconvis – OR139
11 Mar 2009 Cheltenham National Hunt Chase 32f GS 45K (OR139 RPR145)
Drumconvis was found wanting behind Casey Jones in a Leopardstown Grade 1 before finding Clonmel´s 2m1f far too sharp next time, when the testing ground was also against him. He was given a very patient ride and his jockey did not panic when his mount blundered at the final ditch when just beginning to pick up the leaders. He improved to dispute second place on the home turn and was in there fighting going to the last, but nodded on landing at that fence and could produce no extra up the hill.
Second behind Tricky Trickster at Cheltenham represents the best of his career form to date. Ran to an RPR 12lbs higher than anything previous. Unlikely he can make a similar big leap forward in his very next run.
Drumconvis and Rare Bob met over hurdles in March last year, over 3m at Fairyhouse. Drumconvis, running off 109, was the winner with Rare Bob (116) 4.5lengths back in third.
These two are fairly evenly matched, but I think Rare Bob’s chase form is very consistent and if he only runs to his normal level, Drumconvis has some improvement to find in order to finish ahead.
#73
April 9th, 2009 14:12
Stayer – that news re. Notre Pere changes things dramatically.
Interesting also to hear the trainers comments about the forecast rain (or lack of it). That seemed to be at odds with what people were forecasting on this blog.
#74
April 9th, 2009 14:20
My own view, regarding Air Force One, is that he’ll go to Punchestown, complete with headgear.
Wichita Lineman looks a definite runner, so prepare for the weights to go up 12lbs.
#75
April 9th, 2009 14:48
I agree Oedipe. AFO seems to have lost his way a bit and if he runs anywhere I think Mann will send him to Punchestown as he won there last year. Looks like WL could be top weight then. If the weights went up by 12lbs, all those above and including Drumconvis would have more than 11st and only a few horses at the bottom would be left out of the handicap proper. That would make BADGERLAW, BALLYTRIM and WELL RUN potentially interesting.
#76
April 9th, 2009 15:49
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2231?&search=dublin%20international&pageSize=10®ion=world
…was the link I used – heavy rain was forecast for today but hasn’t materialised – but heavy rain also forecast for Sun night / Monday day
Clearly forecasting the weather in April is a dodgy business but I wouln’t like to bet which way it will go
#77
April 9th, 2009 17:45
Mattzz says:
April 9, 2009 at 10:30 AM
brian, can you give your reasons for the ones you discount from your shortlist if you get time?
Will do Mattzz.
#78
April 9th, 2009 17:52
Where’s showlad! – who fancies the top 6 league table to come back
#79
April 9th, 2009 19:32
If the weights go up 12lb then we have to revise.
Carried 11-4 or less 17/20-2 others classy top weight.
10-12 or less 15/20 +commanche 11-4 bobbyjo 11-3 maid of money 11-6.
Ran in a hcap chase-17/20.
Won hcap chase 14 of 17.
I’m always wary of horses who haven’t proved themselves in a hcap.
#80
April 9th, 2009 19:37
Another stat-winers won RH-19/20 Omerta.
#81
April 9th, 2009 19:53
Weights will go up .Beware.Air Force and Notre out so Wichita top weight 11-7 according to RPost.Same crack as Pierse Hurdle.Irish handicap rules.
#82
April 9th, 2009 20:04
Oedipe and The stayer-are you aware this.Would appreciate any input. of
#83
April 9th, 2009 20:34
Got my origanal post wrong-I meant topweight 11-12 botto 9-10.
#84
April 9th, 2009 20:37
Washing Lad 100/1 anyone?
#85
April 9th, 2009 22:21
Thanks St Peter, I wasn’t aware of this Irish alternative handicap rule. The racing post article does a fair job of explaining how it works.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/fairyhouse-irish-national-weights-hinge-on-notre-pere-run/177382/top/
“…the amount which the weights will rise will depend on the original weight allotted to the lowest-weighted horse after final declarations on Friday.”
So things will become a bit clearer in the next 24 hours.
#86
April 10th, 2009 03:46
forest leaves or well run???
just looking for a decent outsider bet.
#87
April 10th, 2009 12:04
Got my shortlist down a little bit now
Arbour Supreme – Too high an OR
Emma Jane – Stays in
Garde Champetre – Too high an OR
Newbay Prop – Stays in
Niche Market – Stays in
Skip Two – Stays in
Bella Mana Mou – Stays in
One Cool Cookie – Too high an OR
So it leaves me with:
Emma Jane
Newbay Prop
Niche Market
Skip Two
Bella Mana Mou
Bella Mana Mou will depend on the ground and Newbay prop im just not keen on but dont know why.
So my three against the field are Emma Jane, Nice Market & Skip two with the possibility of adding Bella Mana Mou if the ground comes right.
#88
April 10th, 2009 12:06
If Notre Pere is scratched Wichita will carry 11-7.This puts every
horse in the handicap proper.
Skip one into 20s in places from 50s and Ruby’s pick Pomme Tiepy shortening.
Stat-14/1 or less 17/20.
Top six betting 17/20
Ran last 49 days 19/20
3 chase runs or less since Jan 1-20/20
Won 2+ chases 19/20
top 4 finish last 2 runs-18/20
#89
April 10th, 2009 12:36
Doesn’t look like the rain will come for BMM:
Skip Two (main bet – on at 50+ and have gone in again at 25s and 25s E/W)
Bella Mana Mou (small bet on at 40+ and will lay off if possible when market re-opens – will go in again if somehow the going gets to be Soft)
Pomme Tiepy (considering a saver on the day to cover stakes – especially if Ruby rides – which I think he is)
#90
April 10th, 2009 14:13
Thanks bloggers for Irish National input. Only just looking at some stats, runners. As far as I can make out, the last 9 winners were placed 1,2,3 at the furthest distance they had ran, jumps or hurdles. Haven’t looked back beyond 10 years yet.
#91
April 10th, 2009 14:50
Just had a quick look at form and have a few fancies. So many people were raving about Garde Champetre for Aintree but are suddenly ruling him out of this. Why? Yes, he may be over 11 stone if NP comes out, but still a good chance imo.
Similar story for Casey Jones. This is a class animal who would have got placed at Cheltenham if Carberry had ridden it properly.
Emma Jane has an obvious chance, and Rare Bob and Arbor Supreme are interesting. Bella Mana Mou is miles out of the handicap and I can’t fancy unless it pours down
I reckon e/w I will go for 2 of the following. Can’t decide!
Garde Champetre 16/1
Emma Jane 12/1
Casey Jones 14/1
Rare Bob 16/1
#92
April 10th, 2009 15:18
On text Nore Petre and Garde both confirmed as runners
#93
April 10th, 2009 15:23
5 places non runner no bet on PADDYPOWER
#94
April 10th, 2009 15:32
Got Garde EW 5 places NRNB @ 14s on PP.
This horse was hugely rated by our team at Aintree and if Notre Petre still runs as indicated, must hace a great chance. Still off a good weight (1 and half stone less than used to) and over these easier fences and less quality field, our GN evaluations of him seem pretty pointless to then not rate him in turn here.
Enda reports horse in great shapr and race ‘at right time’.
Either way I am happy to follow the Garde chase Q one more time to see where it leads…
#95
April 10th, 2009 15:44
I see a few people on here fancy Skip Two. He hasn’t won over 3m+ and he’s had a couple of cracks at the trip. Looking through his profile gives the impression he wants 2m4f/2m6f on good or faster ground. Not too sure if he will see out the extra mile here.
#96
April 10th, 2009 16:05
Racing UK are showing Festival re-run and i’ve just seen the William Hill. Wichita Lineman is a bone idle horse that travels badly in his races and he made two serious mistakes as well. AP will earn his riding fee if he gets that one up. The extra distance will help though and any rain would also be of assistance.
#97
April 10th, 2009 16:32
You could be right Stayer re Skip Two.
However he finished 2nd btn 1/4 L over 3 miles [17/20 won a 3M+ race]
He also has no Fairy form[13/15 Irish trained were top 3 Fairy]
Only fails these on my trends and was 50/1 when shortlisted so was worth a shot though value may now be gone.. .
I haven’t played yet because of the weight and ground issues.
Oh-won a 3M+ chase 14/20-5 of other 6 won 2m5f + chase.Skippy has won 2M6F chase.
So what I am saying Stayer is that at 50/1 i’d pay to find out if he stayed.Not so sure at odds now but I’ll stand by my shortlist.
Thanks for your input Stayer.
#98
April 10th, 2009 16:53
Hi Crisp 73.Sorry if I have misunderstood you but Heartheecho and PointBarrow fail that stat-only checked last three years.Probably got it wrong.
Still got Washington Lad onside-only fails the 3M stat but won 2M6F Ch.Im not a form man but it was a very useful hurdler though has had injuries.Won blinkered first time last and has a 7lb claimer on board so feather weight-cant let it go at 100′1.
#99
April 10th, 2009 17:39
Ive got my 4…
Emma Jane -Even though Ruby picked Pomme Tiepy still like the look of her.
Arbor Supreme-Always there or thereabouts at the finish.
Garde Champetre- Nina Carberry, has a good record with this horse.
Forest leaves-Outsider thats had some decent finishes in rescent HcpCh.
#100
April 10th, 2009 17:58
The favourite is 1/17 so you could say its time one won.However it may be Pomme because Ruby is jocked up which means a better price for Emma-would be around 6/1 if Ruby was on board.Happy with Paul Townend anyway and fancied by nearly all on here.
#101
April 10th, 2009 18:57
Hello guys, Irish National is not my luckest race.Think I only got Dessie up in it.Ruby was on fire after the Cheltenham Festival getting loads of winners in Ireland,as well as National Third (My Will).This time he gone for Pomme Tiepy forecast of 10/1.
Wondering any feed back on his mount Positive or negative.
Plus can someone please update me with stats for this race and which horses fill them/or come close.
Ps I know you probably gone over these many times and I’am sorry to have trouble you but the is a lot of mail to read and I just want to claify thinks.THANK YOU.
#102
April 10th, 2009 19:36
Hi Neil.
6YO-0′20. Not ran last 49 days. 8{th last chase run{17/20 top 4}.No handicap form{17/20 ran hcap chase – won 14/17}.
Rules her out on my stats but looks like a plot horse having been run over hurdles to protect mark.
Good Luck Neil-we all have different views and its good to share info.
#103
April 10th, 2009 20:59
Commanche Court – 7yo; 41 days since last run; BD last chase run; no handicap form; never run or placed over 3m in a chase; only won or placed once from 4 attempts at 3m+ hurdles races
This race is VERY different to the Grand National where experience counts – if anything the last 7 years have shown that being unexposed is more of a benefit than experience in Irish GN
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Pomme Tiepy because of Irish GN ‘trends’
#104
April 10th, 2009 21:00
Oh and CC won by 10L
#105
April 10th, 2009 21:02
I really rate Garde Champetre but i just think there is something with a lower weight that will beat it.
At aintree it was the other way round, the ones that i rated that could beat GC had a higher weight so i favoured GC. All to no avail as i got my fingers burned when it was declared a non-runner tho
As for Notre Pere staying in i thought it had been stated that he would be declared to see what the ground would turn out to be like but it was looking likely he would not run so it almost certain, in my opinion, that the weights will rise.
#106
April 10th, 2009 21:25
I have to agree with pablo regarding pomme tiepy. Its obviously been his target for some time and clearly shows you how highly willie mullins rates the horse, a 6 year old hasn’t won for some time though. At the moment, If the weights stay the same i have to favour Arbor Supreme although all three of his horses stand a big chance, surely one of them will win
#107
April 10th, 2009 21:27
really could do with a final decision on Notre Pere before any bets are placed. Think we can bring the top 6 league table back then and make amends after the GN
#108
April 11th, 2009 02:41
is selection box worth a bet?
or would he only come into contention if notre pere dropped out and weights changed?
#109
April 11th, 2009 08:35
Correction. 1,2,3 on furthest distance ran, 8/10 (Hear the Echo did win at 24f as a 4 yr old, NHflat race?) Point Barrow was 5th at 33f.
10/10 top 5 at furthest distance ran- a guide perhaps to find the winner from the shortlist.
#110
April 11th, 2009 16:00
Any more short lists of 3 against the field? – time is running out for the analysis – we need to get those bets on!
Listening to all the debate I have plumpted on Emma Jane for a small fun bet. I’am not going to go into the IN and SN in a big way as I have a “gamble” lined up in the next two months to recoup that lost GN money and i can say its not on a racecourse (I’ll let you know when my own money is all on).
#111
April 11th, 2009 17:21
out of interest does anyone know what channel the race will be on?
#112
April 11th, 2009 17:31
Mattzz,
It will be on ATR.
Systemsman,
I have had e/w bets at long odds on Niche Market and Bella Mana Mou.
My idea of the winner would be Arbor Supreme, Rare Bob, Casey Jones or Emma Jane. The participation of Notre Pere is very important for those three especially Casey Jones, as if the weights go up by 7lbs he would have 11-3. Emma Jane would be the safest bet right now but i’m going to wait until closer before getting involved.
#113
April 11th, 2009 17:37
Systemsman, I haven’t got a shortlist as such, like you and many others this seems a difficult race to get in to. I think Church Island has a chance, each way, form with Southern Vic, good place strike rate in chases, 4th behind Butlers in 07, good RPR postings, nice low weight and a 7lb claimer on board.
#114
April 11th, 2009 17:45
Thanks for info crisp 73.
#115
April 11th, 2009 18:02
Cant narrow it down to three but assuming yielding ground at worst-
Emma Jane win
Arbor Supreme win
Newbay Prop Niche Market Washington Lad e/w.
Hopefully PP will be going e/w top five.
Skip Two is still shortening -missed the price but because of the weight and ground issues this race has been tough to call.
#116
April 11th, 2009 21:00
Hi Guys,it me again.
Just been reading Zapper comments letter number 1.In which he quotes Pablo.
Looking at the winning age group I see that Ruby mount is too young,you’ve got to go a long way back for a winning six year old,but he says that 6 and 7 are quite good for win and place percentage wise.
Still respect for Ruby but what do you make of Washington Lad at 66/1 is he value for money,or just another donkey.Thank you for your input.
#117
April 11th, 2009 22:14
Thanks Crisp – Saved me the bother of typing in exactly what I thought. Hadn’t noticed the claimer though – Not necessarily a good thing but as Hourigan has aimed CI at this I take it he’s sure enough about him.
#118
April 12th, 2009 07:36
Just to make it clear – these are not my trends:
“Some pointers to the Irish National (haven’t checked them out – just found on another site)
- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.”
#119
April 12th, 2009 09:46
Using the trends i’m left with, couple of these are near top weight and are hard to fancy. From this i only really like Arbor Supreme and Emma Jane. Not sure what to make on Ruby’s choico on pomme tiepy, think it is a year to early for the horse.
Arbor Supreme
Casey Jones
Emma Jane
Garde Champetre
Newbay Prop
One Cool Cookie
Wichita Lineman.
#120
April 12th, 2009 11:13
hi guys,very trappy affair but my list of 3 are
arbor supreme
rare bob
drumconvis
backed first 2 but have a sneak for drumconvis.
#121
April 12th, 2009 12:21
My 4 against the field are:
Casey Jones
Garde Champetre
Rare Bob
Emma Jane
Not staked much though as poor track record in this race
#122
April 12th, 2009 14:08
Just to mention-watering tonight and heavy rain forecast.Some trainers unhappy with the ground today.
#123
April 12th, 2009 15:45
has the market on betfair been suspended for everyone for the last few days :s
i just wanna get some on arbor supreme
#124
April 12th, 2009 15:56
St Peter what is the state of the ground?
Rp website says that its good with patchy light rain and drizzle.
Been having a look at Timeform and they fancy Garde Champetere they say its act on heavy and can stay the distance.
Miss Nina Carberry also knows the horse winning on him at Cheltenham.So for me it Nina and Rubys mount.Good luck everybody.
#125
April 12th, 2009 16:09
I like:
Forest Leaves
A New Story
Chelsea Harbour
Arbor Supreme
Can anyone give me more confidence regarding Forest Leaves and A New Story pls?
#126
April 12th, 2009 16:38
Hi Neil-ground described as ‘good’ for todays racing.The problem has been that the heavy rain forecast the last two nights has missed Fairyhouse.I believe they will water after racing today but the rain could come tonight.So what the ground will be tommorrow is anyones guess.
Garde wont mind a bit of juice,but theres still the weight conundrum.I reckon they will pour the water on so that Notre Pere runs and save the embarressment of explaining the handicap rules to the once a year punters and everybody else{including myself]who was confused.The average punter will be unaware that the horse picked out in the morning paper could be carrying half a stone more at the off.
Personally I hope Notre is withdrawn as the ones on my shortlist will still carry 10-12 or less.However,I assumed going no worse than yielding so will wait until the first few races are run.
#127
April 12th, 2009 16:50
what about drumconvis?, quite fancied on racing post
#128
April 12th, 2009 17:02
Hi Michael.Both those horses hard to win with New story 2/41 chases and Forest 1/22.Newstory 3rd 06 and 4th 08 . If the ground turned soft both would be still going while plenty others would have pulled up.See what the place odds are.
I need some confidence myself-trying to get back GN losses and had a nice touch with Butlers in this but this year is tough.
#129
April 12th, 2009 17:11
Thanks for the info St Peter.
If Notre Pere runs then my bets is as described,if not half a stone is a huge rise and things need to be re-thought.
Mattzz Tf says drumconvis stays 4m acts on soft usually held up but sometimes idles in front.Jockey is B.J.Geragthy should know how the horse is ridden.
Michael a new story looks a good choice but forest leaves has got the squiggle meaning its untrustworthy.However it might put it all together on the day.Good luck with your bets,personally out of your 4 I’d pick A New Story but thats just me
#130
April 12th, 2009 17:48
Do horses (who are running in first time handicaps) often/ever win the Irish National?? Quite a few are doing this tomoz. Cheers!
#131
April 12th, 2009 18:55
Running in a handicap chase for first time -3/20.1/16.
14 of the other 17 had won a hcap chase.
Commanche Vanton Maid of Money were all good novices and Commanche and Maid broke the 10-12 mark which is 15/20 {2 of others classy topweghts].
Matriarch-I prefer horses with hcap form but Casey,Drumconvis and Rare Bob could be anything.
Good luck to you all.
#132
April 12th, 2009 19:21
Novices have a good record in recent years-5/11.
#133
April 12th, 2009 19:26
Hi guys i was just reading the spotlights on the RP web site and it said the following about Ruby’s mount tomorrow.
“Talented novice chaser last season who has had an Aintree-style preparation this term, being campaigned solely over hurdles since a poor run at Clonmel in November; won over hurdles at this venue later that month, though subsequent form has been disappointing; apparent stable selected, but needs Notre Pere to come out for his rider to make the weight”
So have i read this correctly? if Notre Pere runs ruby won’t ride Pomme tipey, if this is so then he cannot ride Emma Jane as she has the same weight so will it mean that he rides Arbor supreme or will it mean that he just won’t have a ride in the race?
#134
April 12th, 2009 20:05
Puzzled,
I think it just means that Ruby will be putting up overweight on Pomme Tiepy if Notre Pere runs. The horse is set to carry 9-12 and I have no idea what Ruby’s lowest riding weight is. He might be in the sauna all night!
#135
April 12th, 2009 20:18
Ruby is quoted “living on fresh air for the weekend”to get the weight down.He rarely wastes so is well keen on Pomme.If weights go up he will be in neareast Abrakebabra to Ratoath tommorow lunchtime for the crack.
Paul Townend and Slippers Madden are top class so no worries for Emma and Arbor.
#136
April 13th, 2009 01:40
Thanks for the comments..i really like Arbor Supreme / Forest Leaves and A New Story so i’ll back those.
#137
April 13th, 2009 03:57
Hi Guys been reading a few comments and 1 or 2 people have talked about skip two, i own 25% of skip two he came second last time out we were to be honest expecting him to win however tomorrow or today as its 5.00am we are expecting a very good each way chance he has a really nice weight is going to love the step up in trip and we think 22/1 (ladbrokes) is very generous however as always there are dangers for me the three dangers age one cool cookie arbor supreme and garde champetre best of luck guys and gals
#138
April 13th, 2009 09:05
If notre pere gets withdrawn today at 12.00pm the weights will go up half a stone.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/apr/13/horse-racing
#139
April 13th, 2009 09:48
Why does no-one fancy Garde?
#140
April 13th, 2009 10:20
NOTRE PERE out – weights rise by 7lb – see RP
Also not amused that Pricewise has tipped my one Skip Two but what can I do?
Also will have a little on Artiste Bay in 5:40
Otherwise it’s on to Ayr…
#141
April 13th, 2009 10:47
How come Ruby picked Pomme over Arbor?
#142
April 13th, 2009 10:53
Well all weights rise 7ibs, so apart from putting some horses out of the usual weights range for winner, it’s a 7lb spread across the board.
Garde still looking very good at 10′ 13″ – still a stone less than usual.
Will post up my tips later when done full re-assessment.
But Garde to show great transition to fences will be at the fore for me and see him landing today’s Big prize.
#143
April 13th, 2009 12:06
Is it any wonder I can’t pick the winner (expect for Dessie,who had top weight anyway and also give you a decent run for your money;win or lose).
Top weight goes out at the eleventh hour and weights go up by half a stone.If for arguement sake Cloudy Lane came out of the main National so late and the weights went up like this,what an uproar they will be.
Small stakes only but Pomme Tiepy will be my bet.
As for Garde Champetre ran well at Cheltenham,TF difference in rating remain virtually the same,but 10 stone 13 pounds is a ittle on the high side.(Sod law it will probably win).Just can’t have GC.
Good luck everyone!
#144
April 13th, 2009 12:11
backed these on sat
garde champetre
arbor supreme
drumconvis
casey jones
not really a good national for trends
#145
April 13th, 2009 12:38
Hello my ‘lil Pop Pickers ‘ere we go:
.
OK..if Garde can translate all to fences and the field at hand, then he will have bags of class to prevail. That’s the Big If – but I for one am in.
NEWBAY PROP is progressive, good staying 3rd at Kim Muir behind Character and was 5th in the Irish Nat last year. GREAT EW value.
Church Island 5th here 2 years ago is silly odds @66/1 and with several bookmakers paying 5 places again could sneak a place.
Progressive and the Big DARK HORSE is Skip Two who cannot be left out.
THAT’S MY 4 AGAINST THE 30
#146
April 13th, 2009 14:08
took you up on church island and backed it at 120
lets have another mon mome 
#147
April 13th, 2009 15:05
Well got some back with A NEW STORY but what a peculiar race..did almost all the jockeys decide that they wouldn’t put their horses in the race?
#148
April 13th, 2009 15:07
thanks for church island showlad, made my grand national money back
#149
April 13th, 2009 15:11
did niche market win? if so I won my GN money back and some! had a quick peak in on this thread and I have to say listened to Maureens tip, took a look and put some on late last night at 40s. result not comin in… radio cut out but mentioned Niche??!!
#150
April 13th, 2009 15:12
yeh niche market won, then church island, a new story, rare bob and pomme tiepy
#151
April 13th, 2009 15:13
how did garde do? I had a little on him too, after he pulled out of the GN. didn’t hear any mention b4 radio cut out.
#152
April 13th, 2009 15:14
Yes
#153
April 13th, 2009 15:15
i dont know im afraid. i was trying to watch it on paddy power and it all went pear shaped, so i only got the result
won a bit back on rare bob though, not a bad result
#154
April 13th, 2009 15:15
Well I think Garde answered our GN Qs and the answer is emphatically – STICK TO CROSS COUNTRY LOL!
Hope you all got on my recommendation of Church Island @66s. Did well on that EW return.
What a bizzare race that is though, eh?
Roll on Scottish Next Week, that’s all I can say
#155
April 13th, 2009 15:17
Oh! thanks Mattzz, great… this is not usually my race makes up for Rambo stake leftover even with my COD second saver. thanks for the pointer Maureen great outsider… like me
#156
April 13th, 2009 15:17
congratulations to maureen,nice one.
#157
April 13th, 2009 15:21
8 out of last 9 winners have been rated 125-136, did’nt someone post.
so why did i back 4 horses above that?.
#158
April 13th, 2009 15:24
Niche market &Rare Bob are young enough to make an impact on next year’s GN. However everyone will be on NM and he might get lubbered with a huge weight.
#159
April 13th, 2009 15:25
give up! had mon mome on 8 horse shortlist put over £100 on 5 of them(not mon mome)instead of sticking a tenner on all 8.
and now did’nt stick to what few trends there was for irish.
#160
April 13th, 2009 15:39
Haven’t seen the race. Niche Market would need to improve 1st, 2nd, 3rd strike rate in chases as it is low for GN winners.
Church Island at this moment in time has a perfect profile; 11 yr old next year, RPR 148, left handed 148, TS 139, won a C1/C2 chase 17k, top 3 in a C1 chase-2nd in Irish National, 50% strike rate in chases, at least 3 chase wins, won at 25f, placed at 29f(furthest he’s ever ran)
#161
April 13th, 2009 15:40
Thanks guys, all my GN losses and more recouped on Niche Market.
Had the 1-2-3 but win only, should have taken the tasty enough place money on A New Story but thats racing I guess!
Onto the Scottish now I guess… after staying on from another parish at Cheltenham and a proven stayer, i’m backing Nine De Sivola to finally break his chase duck
#162
April 13th, 2009 15:42
‘top 5 place in furthest distance raced’ looks quite good in Irish National now- Niche Market had been 4th at 32f.
#163
April 13th, 2009 15:46
Well done Maureen and also The Stayer,Brian and TC who shortlisted Niche Market.It was 70 0n Betfair at midday.
#164
April 13th, 2009 15:49
staff, MM was on my and a few others jan/feb shortlist of 7/8. none of us backed him early, then, and although I didn’t think his last few races were as poor as some were making out, I and the nation couldn’t back him after the midlands nat. it looked too much too close, gutted as I had a sentimental few quid on him there with 11-12, but happy for the horse etc. a proper national horse.
Here I kinda stuck to my own thoughts, stayed away from confusion and over study, but nice to find a smallish thread to scan here, followed the few stats… and I like Maureens thinking, so looked into that tip, liked it, and the price so went for it! You are right Staff shoulda stuck with the few stats, better luck next time, going to look at scottish thread soon, but off for some belated national bubbly. Heres to you Maureen!
#165
April 13th, 2009 15:55
oh, is Brian back! rambo was gutting but this made up for it, Brian, my first go at the Irish…. shame I didn’t see it and then didn’t hear it!!! probably never will so if anyone can run through it for my pleasure I’d be grateful, well done everyone who had this one.
#166
April 13th, 2009 15:57
Niche only failed two of my stats-
Top 4 last completed chase now 17/21.Was 8th last run Cheltenham .Mudahim also trained GB was 6th Cheltenham +Point Barrow and Echo who both broke 8 trends.
Won 2 chases + now 19/21,though Niche was 2nd beaten head.
Scottish National anyone?
#167
April 13th, 2009 16:01
33-1, 50-1 and another 50-1, 1st 2nd and 3rd……… dis aint racing its a con
#168
April 13th, 2009 16:34
Both Wichita Lineman and Drumcovis lost their lives in the race.
Wichita and Exotic dancer such a blow to the jonjo team in the spate of a few weeks.
#169
April 13th, 2009 16:43
oh dear thats awful news, wichita won so well at cheltenham and then this, its a tragic turnaround.
#170
April 13th, 2009 16:45
not much pleasure out of that win after the fatalities, I’m afraid…so sorry for connections of both horses….
#171
April 13th, 2009 16:48
After the shock of the Grand National I decided to have a go on the Irish National, but rather than spend aeons going through the stats I just read the last 3 pages on here to see what everyone was going for. Thanks guys, won a tenner on Niche Market! Doesn’t claim back my GN losses but it’s a start
#172
April 13th, 2009 17:52
By some minor miracle of fate – i stuck 3 quid on Niche Market at 80 /1 on betfair as i suspected another shock here .. any time there is a big race where the ground has been watered id treat all previous form with caution… yet another big race where watered ground and big priced winners go hand in hand… least it helped heal the mon mome wounds a little . i see ayr are planning to water next week as well so the merry go round or circus may go on for a while yet ..!
#173
April 13th, 2009 18:20
I had a gut feeling its was not a race to get stuck into too hard (only had a fun bet which I made on Saturday so it was free)- nice for those few that won though – well done. Now thats 2/2 to big price winners – now the Scots Nat just cant go that way can it? Lets all work on it and get it down to a list of three if possible.
Crisp 73 thanks for your note 5 above – yes Church Island has to be considered for the GN 2010 short list if it enters it that is.
#174
April 13th, 2009 18:28
Didn’t win,but all I ask for is a decent run for my money and Ruby give me that at least.Maybe next year if his form holds out.
Sad about the two horses dieing,I hoped they didn’t suffer.
#175
April 13th, 2009 19:46
apparently emma jane is in a bit of trouble after the race as well…not good at all
#176
April 13th, 2009 20:13
Many many thanks to you all on this site, i lost £300 on Rambling Minister but recouped my bet with a £100 e/w on Comply or Die. As i took up offers from several bookies to get the best value for my bets i had a remaining free bet to use of £35 that i could only use after the grand national. Again i took advise from this site and found several of you fancied niche market for the irish national as an each way bet,but i used my free bet on the horse to win at 33/1. May i say thankyou £1,100 times.
Thankyou Thankyou Thankyou
#177
April 13th, 2009 20:18
Only just noticed the fatalities does take the shine of win sorry if sounded heartless, been out all day a theme park only just come in and read telly text.
#178
April 13th, 2009 21:20
Management @ the course should be ashamed re todays race. Not only because two horses died in the race – one well fancied went at the first fence – but that 2 circuits later as the winners are on the final run in – the downed horse can still be seen struggling to get up with not much attention being paid to him behind a half erected screen! I am not anti racing but I feel strongly that standards must be set – and adhered to – at a high level to insure the welfare of the horses. The third horse that was mentioned – Emma Jane I think, lost the rider early on and continued on loose for most of the race – weaving in and out dangerously across the course – the use of outriders would help prevent loose horses injuring themselves or interfering with other runners and shouldn’t be that difficult to organise. What I saw today made me questions if any standards were in place at Fairyhouse – a real disgrace! I was watching on TV – I can’t imagine what a grim specticle this was for people at the course to have to watch the distress of this animal. I will be complaining to the racecourse directly and if I can find any other official routes too.
#179
April 13th, 2009 21:27
One to take out of the race for next years National is One Cool Cookie; was pointed out to me a while ago that this one is bred to stay and will be the magic age of 9 next year. Know what you mean, bobbyjo; I saw the result before I was able to watch the race and felt that someone had thrown a bucket of cold water over me. Terribly sad.
#180
April 13th, 2009 22:11
I agree with One Cool Cookie – I would have had a few quid on him if he’d lined up at Aintree.
Maureen hats off again – win or lose I think your contributions are top notch and very well considered
#181
April 13th, 2009 22:45
am I right in thinking that the claiming jockeys were able to use their claim? if they did, most of the placed horses were ridden by claimers..worth noting for next year.
#182
April 13th, 2009 23:05
Emma Jane has gone to veterinary hospital but they think she’s going to be ok.
#183
April 13th, 2009 23:14
think the bunny boiler was the last to win the Irish GN with claimer in 2002
coincidence and perhaps a non-staying bunch of novices and youngsters this year (a new story was too close?) – although i still want to be proved that skip two would not have stayed – i believe that he would on that ground
#184
April 14th, 2009 00:30
is there any where you can watch a replay of the race? i never actually got to see it
#185
April 14th, 2009 01:03
nevermind, i watched the replay on ATR, what exactly happened with witchita?, it looked like he fell and then got up and collapsed, but jonjo seems to think he was hit by the horse behind…looked awful
#186
April 17th, 2009 11:20
Niche Market & Church Island very good RPRs in Irish National – 154 & 150
Should they match those numbers next season both would be of real interest at Aintree next April but my feeling is that the handicapper might put them up a fair bit on weights day
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