How To Narrow Down The GN Field
February 11th, 2008Thanks to all of you who have contributed to the GN Weights thread and suggested ideas as to how we can cut the runners down.
Now that there are a few of us on the site I thought it would be nice to try and work together to see if we can form a small field from which the 2008 GN Winner should come from.
I’ll kick off with some pretty safe trends and then if we agree on some more we can narrow it down further.
On the main Grand National Guide Trends Page it shows that each of the last ten winners had these stats in common and if you look back further you will see that many more winners had the same common stats.
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
At this stage we dont know the last 40 runners of course but my opinion is that those below 10st 5lb might struggle to get in the race. I certainly wouldnt want to be backing any below 10st 5lb right now anyway… so if we agree then we will call that the cut off point?
Ok the above basic trends narrow down the 150 entries to just 29. NB Ive included a couple on 9 runs as they are due to have prep runs
So I make the 29…
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,
Have I missed any out which you wouldnt want to exclude?
What next?
Ive heard shouts for experience over the GN fences (but just 6 of last winners 10 meet that criteria)
Exclude all french breds? (are you telling me that L’Ami and Kelami dont stay?)
Several recent winners have won or finished closed in another “national” (is that stat strong enough?)
Any others?
wacky Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
French breds may get placed, but don’t win. Horses that have not run twice before the weights come out must be left of the short list.Horses placed the year before have a poor record.
Systems Man Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
More 10/10 trends
Won class 1 or 2 chase 10/10
Pre race RPR of at last 144 10/10
……..
Also worth taking into account 9/10 trends(but be careful, you may still wish to include a horse that meets all other essential good trends).
Recorded a Topspeed figure of at least 128 9/10
Three to five outings since start of August 9/10
OR rating of 136 to 147 9/10 {the odd one out was OR 128]- now this is a very interesting trend for narrowing down the field so lets allow some allowance and say OR 135 to 149.
trevor Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 3:00 am
6 out of the last 10 with experience of the fences !,i would say thats a strong trend as long as theyre meeting the other criteria.French breds do not stay ?yes,the last french bred to win the national was lutheur 3rd in 1909.Having run in another national prior to winning at aintree produces some interesting stats,Silver birch,won 2004 welsh.Numbersixvalverde,won 2005 irish.Bindaree,3rd in 2001 welsh.Red marauder,10th in 2000 irish and fell at aintree 2000.Papillon,4th in irish 97,2nd in irish 98,10th in irish 99.Bobbyjo,won irish98.Earth summit,won welsh 97.Royal athlete,fell irish 93.So using the other national,french bred and aintree fences factors i think its safe to reduce the probables even futher,here,s the list,Simon,Butlers cabin,Slim pickings,Chelsea harbour,Bewleys berry,Mckelvey,Point barrow,Sir rembrandt,Cornish rebel,cloudy lane,Cornish sett,Naunton brook,Comply or die,Billyvodan,Philson run,Black apalachi,Homer wells.Thats reduced the list to 17 and its fair to say that a couple of those loook extremely dubious stayers.
Systems Man Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Trevor big mistake to look only at Grand National fences. It would make more sence to look at Grand National and other Nationals in which case you must include one of my top two tips (the other being Point Barrow at this stage): Parsons Legacy (3rd in the Scottish National (21.04.2007)
Steve Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
When looking at trends I think we need to be careful and make sure that each trend makes clear sense as to why a Grand National winner needs to adhere to it.
Looking at the Racing Posts excellant Trends column in last weeks grand national pull out it mentions things like three to five outings since start of August (9/10) as systems man also identifies above… But is there a sound reason why a horse who has run twice sinc the start of August cant win the grand national. Has a horse which has run 6 times got no hope at all..
Another one racing post trends had was yet to win that season (8/10) - so why should we avoid horses that have won in the season?
French Breds makes sound sense.
Another national run makes sense to me as if their trainer thinks the horse good enough to win THE national then they may well run them in another on route. Or if they run well in another national then they are likely to be aimed at THE national.
Having run over national fences before makes sense also as the fences are so different to others of course. A horse seeing them for the first time could/should be a bit worried and put off. Although 6/10 were having their first GN run so that kind of contradicts it a bit. I guess the stats say that a horse should have experience of fences but if they have run in a GN befoer they might be too highly rated by the handicapper.
All in all I’m pretty happy with those 17 though - as I do agree they are probably the 17 most likely to win at this stage. Just struggling to think of sound ways to cut the list down further.
trevor Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Ok systems man,we,ll let that one in,the reason i,de left it out was because of the high volume of winners that had been associated with either the the welsh or irish nationals or had form over the national fences,in fact coupled with the list of stats regarding age,weight,etc,its frightening.Heres another stat,look at how many horses in have fallen in the national and come back to win it another year,silver birch(won 07)fell06,hedgehunter(won 05)fell 04,amberleigh house(won03)fell01,red marauder(won 01)fell 2000.If you read my various posts throughout this blog its fair to say i have,nt got tunnel vision,i,me very open minded so don,t be throwing your toys out of your pram because i did,nt include your horse in the list,i,me just trying to find the strongest trends to try and find the winner.
Steve Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Ok so if a horse falls in the national then why is it a good thing to win a future national?
Maybe…
Connections are dissapointed so aim at a future national combined with handicapper not penalising it for having grand national form?
Point Barrow looks strong on those assumptions after falling at 1st last year when very well fancied
wacky Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
THE WINNER MUST HAVE HAD 4 RUNS THIS SEASON.I’M NOT SURE IF ANYONE HAS MENTIONED THIS,BUT ITS ONLY 3 WEEKS BETWEEN CHELT AND AINTREE SO THINK HORSES WONT RECOVER IN TIME IF THEY GO TO CHELT.ONLY SILVER BIRCH AND BINDEREE HAVE GONE AND WON IN THE LAST TEN YEARS.
trevor Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Yes steve,this is the point i,me making about having fallen in a previous national,hedgehunter fell at the last when in contention,its no so much that connections are dissapointed,the horses are gaining valuable experience of these unique fences,in some cases the ones that fell were unlucky,Point barrow does fit into the list of possibles but hardly learnt much about aintree falling at the 1st,where as hedgehunter fell at the last the previous year,amberleigh house was badly hampered and brought down at the 8th,silver birch was in touch until badly hampered and falling at the 15th.When we are using these stats we must decide how significant are they,its true no horse has had less then 4 runs in that season prior to winning the national in the last 20 years,but does that mean anything ?,it proves the well being and fitness of the horse,but go back to 2000 and mely moss,first time out that season it finished 2nd to papillon in the national,only beaten 1 1/4 lths,we,de have to say it does,nt necessarily mean something,its all dependant on the type of horse you have.As regards horses running at cheltenham and winning the national thats more obvious,you will from time to time get an animal that will go there but the majority of national winners will take a more conventional route,we want the horses that fit the strongest stats but also fit in with some of the less obvious ones.ps don,t slate me to much for that mely moss 2nd(french bred)i,me sure one will win it again one day but as far as stats go its strongly suggesting that one won,t.
wacky Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
IM LOOKING FOR THE WINNER WITH THE STATS THAT WE HAVE A HAND FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.I KNOW THAT HORSES THAT ARE FRENCH BRED,CARRYING OVER 11ST WITH LESS THAN 4 RUNS WILL BE PLACED.BUT THEY WILL NOT EFFECT ME LAYING THESE HORSES NOT TO WIN.
trevor Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 12:54 am
Someone once told me its all in thr breeding and i must admit when i have the time i do go through it.I was told the class and speed comes from the sires side(normally) and the stamina from the dams side.Silver birch,s dams sire had sired Last of the brownies(5th 1990 grand national,4th 1989 national)and Numbersixvalverdes dams sire had sired kildimo(winner 1992 becher)belmont captain(6th 92 welsh national)barney burnett(2nd 90,4th 89 irish national)Keep talking(winner 4 mile am chase chel 92)Bartres(8th 1990 national),whilst Hedgehunters sire had already produced a national winner in montys pass the previous year,so this is going to require some serious research of the runners in our list.
wacky Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
I have looked into this in the past for the cheltenham festival.I have a form book that told me the top bred winners over a few years.horse that had won at over 3miles up to the 4 mile races were-Be my native,Supreme leader,Montelimar,Un desperado and Strong gale.But i think you will find the winner without this as all the other stats will help pinpoint the final 4 that we will have to back.My shortlist is only 8.Think that saturday will help us in our quest as well.
Systems Man Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Go on Wacky tell me your short list of 8 and I will give you mine in the next 24hours.
wacky Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Sorry systems man i can’t let you know yet as this would help people that can’t be bothered to study stats. I want the biggest prices i can possibly get nearer the race, as there is a important stat that will help us nearer the time.I can tell you that point barrow is a definite for the short list on all stats.plus after saturday it will be half the price that i’ve taken and will be able to lay some of bet of on betfair.
TREVOR Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
One of these days wacky might actually agree with me but the likelyhood of that is about the same as a french bred winner.THE POINT THAT WAS BEING MADE WAS THAT IF YOU DON,T COME FROM THE RIGHT FAMILY,IE STAYING CHASE WINNERS(WELSH,IRISH,AINTREE,SCOTTISH NATIONAL OR ANY OTHER LONG DISTANCE WINNERS),YOUR NOT GOING TO WIN THE NATIONAL,DOH(WAS THAT HOMER?).CHRIST SOME PEOPLE ARE HARD WORK,I,ME TRYING TO HELP READERS AND MYSELF,I,ME TRYING TO MAKE RATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS BASED ON FACT,THE ORIGINAL SUGGESTION WAS DOES ANYONE ELSE HAVE ANY IDEAS NOT WHAT IS WACKYS ESTEEMED OPINION!!!
TREVOR Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
SYSTEMS MAN,I LIKE WACKYS LAST POST(NOT)SORRY I CAN,T TELL YOU MY LIST(ME)BUT GOES ON TO SAY THERES AN IMPORTANT STAT THAT WILL HELP US(ALL OF YOU,YEH RIGHT)HELP YOURSELF TO ALL THE FREE INFO ON THIS SITE MORE LIKE,BECAUSE YOUR INPUT IS ABOUT AS MUCH USE AS A CHOCALATE FIREGUARD,IME OUTTA HERE
wacky Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Trevor Please don’t take what i am saying the wrong way.In your last post you have solved your own question, as the winner of the national will have ran at least 1 good race in a national or another long distance race.How else can they get there RPR and have won a grade 1 chase worth £17,000? Plus if everyone gets our knowledge what will we have to look forward to? I don’t want a 2/1 FAV in the national!!! Do you
wacky Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Sorry that you don’t like my input trevor. Im trying to help you and System man without naming my shortlist.I wont send anymore comments.
Steve Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Come on guys - lets try and work together here… Im not sure that putting your list up here will effect the price - there dont seem to be that many people around here… but if you dont want to then fine.
But please dont stop posting everyone - I cant find any other decent GN blogs/sites and my list is still 17 long…. Does anyone know any other sites like this one?
bob vipers Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
hey lads call a truce i enjoy your comments as i am down to 8 selections as well and it would be a shame if we could’nt compare our choices a bit later . after we all got our bets on.so please keep talking to each other ok? still cant get my head round where this snowy mountain is coming from 6/1 favourite i dont think so? any body got any opinions about mckelveys chances? keep posting your comments..
Stephen Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I had Point Barrow last year. £50EW at 14/1 and as we all know he came crashing down at the first. I felt like crying. That being said, he has an excellent chance once again and I have had a small wager at 25/1 this time around. He is very much a spring horse and this is probably his last chance to win the famous race and buck the trend of the Irish in recent years. A promising fourth last time out in Ireland, this classy individual ticks all the boxes of a National winner.
Bewley’s Berry at 16/1 has also been an ante-post bet of mine as he has a lovely record over the fences. Bowling along infront when falling at Becher’s last year, he was pinging the fences until that point and a more patient ride this time around could see him settle better and have more stamina for the second circuit. My only concern is the fact he has had one run this season. But you get your money back at 16s if he places so a nice bet all in all.
Those two against the field for now I’d say and reserve judgement until on the day for the rest. I tend to have four in the National and hope for a 1-2-3-4 finish ha! We can dream.
wacky Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Im thick skinned so not going to let anyone put me off helping.Last year my final short list was 4 horse which were Point Barrow,Mckelvey,homer wells and silver birch.They all had at least 4 runs,under 11st,non french bred that had won a £17′000 chase over 3mile 2f.Hedgehunter won carrying 11st 1lb, but was allocated 10.12 before the top weight was taken out. so that will be the only way i will back any horse carrying over 11st.
Brian Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Hi All,
Fascinated by all the posts. I like horse racing but know very little about to be honest (form etc). I became interested as my mate took me to the Grand National several years ago - its a great day out. We’ve been back every year, so thats probably around 7 years. Unfortunately, my mate,Simon, sadly passed away (aged 36!) last year. I’m still going this year with some of my other mates & I really hope that it is written in the Stars that “Simon” wins. It would be rather fitting to say the least. Has it any chance - it was going well last year from what I remember. I don’t understand weights, so I’ve no idea whether his proposed weight is good or bad. Could anyone comment? I’ll be backing him regardless for obvious reasons.
Thanks.
wacky Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
HI Brian,Im sorry to read about the passing of your freind SIMON.If you have been reading these posts you will have read that only 1 horse in the last 22yrs has carried over 11st to victory.Simon has been given 11st 4lbs,so a major stat will have to be broken.I will give you a short list of my stat fancys closer to the race.
Brian Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Oh well, i’ll still be having a bet on him. (its in the stars I tell you!). Otherwise, I will be backing Bewleys Berry which I backed last year too. Much like Simon that was going well too last year. Obviously I ended up with a nil return (as has been the case since i’ve been going to Aintree!!). As you can probably tell, i go more for the fun of a day out at the races rather than anything too serious, so I guess the serious punters will be thinking i’ve got no right to be on this blog! I look forward to reading more “tips” nearer the time. Thanks
wacky Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Brian the more input the better, as for all we know you may have posted the 1st two home in the national. STATS are there to be broken, but i can assure you that up to know this is the biggest stat race in our racing calendar. The DERBY is a very close 2nd and i’ve made good profits on both since finding these stats.good luck
wacky Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
I’ve got 1 question for you all to sleep on.HAs any horse pulled-up in the national and then gone on to win it? The reason i ask is that Naunton Brook pulled up last year and its form this year looks very promising.If it had fallen last year i would be filling my BOOTS!!!
Brody Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Hi guys
At the risk of them all plummeting in the betting to 2/1 LOL here are my four against the field, they’re in order the first two I’m more confident of than the last two. All done E/W at decent odds from 25-33’s. Came to these four by first running thru the normal trends (likely weight, age, RPR etc) Then picked them out according to their previous form and runs I’d watched. I tend to go for horses with previous form on the fences where possible:
1. Point Barrow
Looks a classic national horse and has all the trends in his favour and at 25’s is simply too good value to turn down, if he jumps it clear no way he finishes outside he top 4. Obvious doubt on his fall last year, gambling it was a one off due to over eagerness/bad luck, normally a very sound jumper.
2. Slim Pickings
Laid out for this race again exactly like last year, only race he will be trying in all season. Will be in the frame again if he has a clear round probably not got the toe to win it though.
3. Parson’s Legacy
Silly price currently just far too much value to not be on E/W worth a small punt in anyone’s book.
4. Bewley’s Berry
Was on last year and was looking good till he overjumped a bit at beecher’s. Backed him again after a beautifully run Beecher chase behind Mr P. Stamina is still a serious question mark will the tank empty again? If it doesn’t could well be in the winners circle in april.
My only winner from last year McKelvey nearly made the list but just misses out unless he runs before Aintree due to having no proof of his full recovery some horses never recover from an injury like that. Don’t trust horse trainers as far as I can throw em been burnt like that before.
Finally will be advising all the one race a year £2E/W friends and family to have a cheeky punt on Naunton Brook on the day if he is 50+ cos he’s been very profitable for me this season and you always get a great run for your money from him.
Best of luck all and play nice.
Ian
Systems Man Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Wacky - we think alike - i too do very well on the Derby as the scond best trends race.
I may not have won the GN the last two years but I did get the winner in the Derby both times. Another good trend - as this is strange and outside of horse racing is the ….. Euorovision Song Contest. Won the last two years at a good prce. The reason - well you can look up lots of European Polls on the Net and listen to every tune before the event - its now down to about four choices at most each year to win but the GN is the best all all trend bets at BIG prices - paid for at least a large part of one family cruise in the past and my sons computer for university some years ago and .. well I could go on but with any luck we can all share in the good times this year. I will come back with my short list in the next few days (I am down to 11 after a very quick review).
wacky Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Hi System man,Is your short list~Chelsea Harbour,point barrow,sir rembrandt,cornish rebel,d’argent,cloudy lane,naunton brook,parsons legacy,comply or die,black apalachi and homer wells? maybe now trevor will realise that im not trying to pick other peoples brains to find the winner!!!!
Systems Man Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Wacky that is a very good list and probably has the winner in it. But to do justice to everyone I need until Monday evening to finalise my own list.
Will come back when I have time to do a little bit more research that is needed.
wacky Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Hi systems man,I wouldn’t worry about cutting the short list down to much as 2mrw has alot of nat fancys running.Plus we must wait to see what happens at cheltenham.The only thing you can do is try and take prices about any horse you fancy or think you can lay at shorter prices on the day.As i’ve said b4 i fancy point barrow at the moment but think i will be able to lay off at alot shorter price.You cant beat a no lose gamble!!
Stephen Says:
February 16th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Hmmm….
Not really sure what to make of today’s trial. Point Barrow looked to be travelling superbly until the last 4 furlongs and then just hit a wall. Bewley’s Berry was never travelling and duely pulled up and Irish Raptor was probably the best of the bunch finishing 6th. The National is a different race though and I’m sure they will be back.
wacky Says:
February 16th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Lets get one thing straight bewley’s berry won’t be winning the national.I can’t believe how many people rate this horse!! 1 good run over the nat fences i suppose!! Shall be laying this horse big STYLE.
Systems Man Says:
February 17th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Wacky said “Lets get one thing straight bewley’s berry won’t be winning the national”
100% correct Wacky (even if I did have a small ‘insurance bet’ pre weights based on his performance last year - having looked at the trends this was a complete waste of money).
Why?
His only chase win was a Class 4 £3k race!
Look at these GN trends (for reducing the list):
9 out of the last ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Handicap Chase prior to wining the National (in 2002 Bindraee won a Nov Chase).
9 out of ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Chase with 13 or more runners competing (7/10 were in Han Chases. two were Nov Chases and again in 2002 Bindaree had only won in a Chase with 8 runners.)
Now Bewleys Berry has not won a Handicap Race or won in a any sort of Chase with 13 or more runners. Dont waste your money - he will not win and is a overhyped horse.
P.S. Did anyone get Bindaree in 2002?
wacky Says:
February 17th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Hi Systems man,What did you make of the red square vodka hcap at Haydock? I think that D’Argent was the only horse to come out of the race with ant credit.I was very disappointed with Point Barrow and unless the trainer said he has left alot of work to do with P Barrow i think i will have to lay my bet off!I see that Beef or Salmon is doubtful for the race so the weights will go up 2lbs so i think that from Ungaro upwards have to be scrubbed from the shortlist.Snowy Morning will be over 11st so cant see a Novice carrying that weight.Think this is looking like a poor quality national!Does anyone agree?
Stephen Says:
February 17th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
I am starting to agree with you two lads.
I also had a small bet pre weights on Bewleys but it’s now looking like money down the drain.
I was gutted about Point Barrow on Saturday. He was pinging the fences and the jockey hadnt moved and then they turned for home and he just went up and down on the spot. Very odd indeed. I just hope he is ripe and ready come April. He is an ideal Aintree horse trend wise. But the form hasn’t been great this season.
I can’t bring myself to think that Cloudy Lane and Snowy Morning will win being only 8 year olds. But the waters have been muddied further this weekend and I’m now not sure what’s gonna win. I was confident in 2005 about Hedgehunter and in 2006 at Numbersixvalverde, both duely obliging.
It will be an interesting race come April 5th.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 17th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Hello Guys , reading ur comments on Grand Nat . i would agree that point barrow would be the number 1 pick trendwise . What a nightmare yesterdsy however . he went from cruise control to full scale distress in a matter of strides . i reckon he needs another prep race before aintree or its game over. I just have a sneaky feeling that Old Royal Auclair if he stands on his feet could sneak in and win this on the blindside with 10-7 on his back . french bred however. bit of a risk
Systems Man Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 12:45 am
Dont throw those anti post bets on Point Barrow away yet - he still looks good to me!
Not winning prior to the GN is almost not a problem. Check out the form .
Results from Jan 1st in year of Grand National Win.
Pre win form of the winners for the last ten years.
2007: 2 (the race position prior to winning GN).4.4.2
2006: 3.4.4
2005: 1.6
2004: 5.PU
2003: 4.6
2002: 7.6
2001: F.2
2000: 3.9.4.5
1999: 1.4.4.5
1998: 5.6
So you see not winning is the trend! Pity I missed the race on Saturday but will watch a vdeo replay tomorow. My one concern about Point Barrow is that he has now had six races prior to the GN which is already a new record (all previous winners for the last five years have had only up to five prep races since August (but its only a miner blip)
Systems Man Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 12:46 am
It should say:
“all previous winners for the last TEN years have had only up to five prep races since August (but its only a miner blip)
Brody Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Lets not push any panic buttons on Point Barrow yet. It’s still 7 weeks till the national! If he came to Haydock bouncing and on top of his form I’d have seen that as a HUGE negative as he’ll be well over cooked come Aintree time. He’s my main bet this year and I saw nothing in that race to dampen my enthusiasm for him or run to betfair and lay off, his jumping was sound he travelled with ease but was unable to respond when they kicked for home off the final bend, I’ve no problem with that they weren’t actually aiming him to win that race and I’d expect him to still be way underdone at this early stage.
I’ve also got a small bet on Bewley’s as well and for me he ran little more than a public schooling session, why run a hold up style race for a horse that loves to front run? I think he hated Haydock but we all know he’s loves the national fences. I think come National day he’ll be bouncing once again and given a clear round with his front running style he won’t be out of the frame. Whilst stats and trends are a good guide and help narrow down a large field, they shouldn’t be doggedly followed with zero regard to your own eyes and judgment on a horses ability.
Did any major bookmaker length the odds on either of these two after Saturday? I don’t think so which tells you what they thought of the trials.
Regarding BoS I’d say he’s more than doubtful I’m 99% sure he’ll go to the Irish national (never run a good race in his life this side of the water anyway) not even sure why they bothered entering him. I think poor Hedgehunter ends up top weight again meaning a hike for everyone on current weights.
Does anyone know if Parson’s Legacy and Slim Pickings (my other two fancies) have any runs planned between now and Aintree? Would be interested to check on their progress.
Regards
Ian
Texas Pete Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Does anyone know anything about over the creek?
I done him at 80s on betfair and thought i was doing well but he’s 150s now, does that mean he’s a non-runner?.Also 28s is still available for point barrow on skybet,can’t see that lasting long!
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
I am on Parsons Legacy at 33’s (wish I’d got 40’s when it was available), and I know that it won’t be running before the National. I like to think it is being geared towards the race.
I spoke to a friend and he told me it can’t win because it’s form is exposed. He claimed a winner like last year’s (Silver Birch) would not happen again, but I say don’t be so sure.
Parson’s is a National type. It fits many of the trends required, and I think an E/W (although I’ve gone for the win thus far) for anyone could be of interest
wacky Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Hi Everyone,Parson’s Legacy is running at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir with top weight.I have been looking for possible horses that could run in the national that would fit the stats and parson’s was on top of my shortlist.But as a follower of stats i’ve had to put a line thru it winning as its not going to have run 4 times.I know you all may think im being fussy? But as long as the stats hold up im sticking with it big STYLE.
Systems Man Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
The short list Part 1
Looking at Wacky’s short list of 11, who can win and who cant? (in Part 2 I will review any horse Wacky left out form the origional 18 just to be sure we miss nothing):
Chelsea Harbour,point barrow,sir rembrandt,cornish rebel,d’argent,cloudy lane,naunton brook,parsons legacy,comply or die,black apalachi and homer wells
5 * possibilities - meet almost ALL trends
point barrow
d’argent
parsons legacy
naunton brook
cornish rebel
comply or die
3* possibilities
sir rembrandt - Age 12(getting on a bit). Not won in chase with 12 or more runners.
cloudy lane - won twice this year (maybe peaking to early. Only run in 6 Han chases - is this enough experiance?)
2* possibilies
homer wells RPR 144 (bare min) TS best 119 (needs 128 min)
WONT WIN
Chelsea Harbour - RPR best 141 (needs 144 min)TS best 122 (needs 128 min). Nov last session (does not help)
black apalachi - RPR best 133, TS best 119. Will he stay? (only won over 24F).
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Hmm very interesting systems man . the more i look at it i reckon its a two horse race between point barrow and dargent. did u know that 12 of the last 24 nationals have been won by horses that contested that years hennessy. both these lads were on duty that day as was sir rembrandt . my only nagging doubt on parsons legacy is whether a 3rd in a scottish national is good enough . i dont remember any horse ever being beaten in a scottish national going on to aintree glory. still i reckon hes a top ew bet. i dont think cornish rebel ,naunton brook or comply or die are good enough …think il just keep backing point barrow and dargent right up until the day now and a couple of interesting outsiders
my top 6 - all carrying less than 11 stone
point barrow win
dargent win
parsons legacy ew
royal auclair ew
baron windrush ew
kilbeggan blade ew
wacky Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
This is getting trickier by the day as there are holes appearing in everyone on our shortlists form.I’ve saved the last 2yrs racing post and im going to turn them out 2mrw as im sure we can get to the bottom of this.I have 2 horses that fit the stats that aren’t spring chickens anymore.Think i may wait til the next cut off as that will get rid of some dead wood!
wacky Says:
February 18th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
System man,Can you tell me please if the RPR of 144 must have been done on the horses last run or at any time that season/career? Think i might have got a very shortlist!!
Systems Man Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 12:08 am
Wacky.
To win a horse needs to have gained a RPR figure of 144 or better at anytime of the racing career 10/10 trend.
TS figure of 128 or better at any time - a 9/10 trend
Dan Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Wacky - you mention that Parsons Legacy is running at Cheltenham and has top weight. However, if you look at the entries it has on the Racing Post website the only entry is Aintree?
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
After Wacky mentioned this I have been looking frantically to find out if Parsons is racing or not.
I have been on attheraces and it claims it’s next race is at Aintree.
Also, after going on the Cheltenham website it doesn’t have any info about the Kim Muir (which it ran last year and came 2nd), or Parsons Legacy running at Cheltenham.
However, Parsons Pistol will be running at Cheltenham.
I’m not calling you a liar wacky, but I can’t find it listed for Cheltenham.
Dan Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
The onlt thing about Parsons Legacy is that it has only had 2 runs so far this season which slightly breaks the trends.
I was on Point Barrow last season and was gutted when it fell. I did back Silber Birch but on a place only and was even more gutted about that!!
No idea at the moment who to back but rating this blog.
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
You and I have a bit in common Dan.
Last year I also backed Point Barrow, and the only solace I can take out of it was that I didn’r watch the race live as I was at Arsenal watching us play Bolton, and found out the result before watching it.
The year before I was going to back Silver Birch, but it got injured before Aintree, and I just left it alone last year.
You’ve got to hate it when you pick a future winner early (makes me fret about Point Barrow for this year’s. Although, the run on Saturday wasn’t pretty).
True, Parsons Legacy has only had a couple of outings, but it has finished reasonably well in many of it’s races, and you have to feel it’s being geared up for this.
I’m happy to be on Parsons @ 33’s though. That’s an interesting bit of value and still available with Will Hill I believe, but it’s come down to 25’s with many bookies.
Come on Dan. Seems it’s fate we’ll be on the same horse
sticky99 Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Yeah Racing Post won’t have the declarations for the Kim Muir yet because it’s a handicap.
Parsons Legacy is intended to run on the 13th March in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Phillip Hobbs is running it ad top-weight in the amateurs race it contested last year when second.
Quote from the Racing Post Newspaper (not online) on February 6th when weights were released:
“I think Parsons Legacy will be my main one. He will run in the Kim Muir under top weight. He had a great spring last year, he was placed in the Scottish Grand National and he is the right age and has the right weight.”
Steve Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Im still a bit dubious about some of these trends, but one I would like to throw which hasnt been mentioned yet is the headgear one. Those blinkered or visored shoule be excluded from your lists.
If a horse isnt completely genuine and is easily put off by other horses then what hope has it in a Grand National with horses running all over the place?
Also surely it helps if you can see what you are doing with those fences and be able to avoied the trouble.
In the last 30 years only Earth Summit has won the race with headgear and over 130 have tried and failed. In fact I cant see any others who have come close recently. Earth Summit almost ran a different course to the others as he was so wide so maybe thats why he got away with it.
So who does this rule out this year? We wont know for a while for sure but point barrow looks liklely to wear blinkers, as could Black apalachi, D’argent, baily breeze, comply or die and homer wells.
So some intersting runners there who have wonr blinkers in recent races and would be a worry to me should their trainers decide to fit them wit headgear for the national.
Dan Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
I can get 33’s still with Paddy Power so might put a bit each way on tonight as it is good value.
Not too sure about Point Barrow after Saturday and now it has raced 6 times this season and Top Speed is only 120. I may have to swerve this one.
Have you any thought on any of the others?
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
I’d like to apologise to Wacky for doubting him, and thanks sticky for those quotes.
Not sure how I feel about it running Cheltenham, but I guess the result of the race will have more of a baring on that in the future.
Can’t say I’ve thought about too many others Dan.
What does everyone think of Character Building?
It’s an interesting horse, although only been in 10 jump races, which is something to consider, but has won 3 of them, including one over 3m 2f
Also, it performed well at Cheltenham last year, bar the end of the race, which you can read about in the summaries.
It’s carrying 10-5 and is 8 years old
wacky Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
I was wandering how long it would be before blinkers were mentioned.I have to admit that i hope the shortlist doesn’t include any horses with headgear.But we must remember that 1 horse has won with blinkers so its not out of the question.The thing is worrying me the most is that horses that look certain to fit the stats are going out in price on betfair every day.Also at the moment there isn’t a horse in the front 15 in the betting that i wouldn’t be happy to lay!That doesn’t seem right.
wacky Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Oh dear,Just looked up Paddy Powers prices and they have pushed Point Barrow out to 33/1.I smell a rat and think that all is not well with the horse.They wouldn’t offer prices on a horse from there own emerald isle without a good reason!! Hope im wrong.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Wacky - are u sure ? - point barrow still trading at 20s from what i can see on pps website
wacky Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
I looked it up on readabet.com.sorry if its wrong guys.
Brody Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
You’re both right, they pulled it out to 33-1 from 20-1 trying to take a view, punters have obviously taken them on and they have instantly clipped it straight back in to 20-1 with their tail between their legs haha.
I’d take that as a positive personally.
Regards
Ian
Stephen Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Wacky is right.
It did go to 33/1 for a brief period but it’s now back to 20/1.
Paddy didn’t wanna risk it for too long ha ha!
Stats Man Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Parsons Legacy is the one, I’m sure. I’ll forgive him for only having the 2 runs. I have picked the national winner in 97,98,99,02,06,07 based on the stats.
My only issue is that for some reason Parsons Legacy is not listed on the racing post betting guide. Not sure why this is (but I’m worried!). Anyway, I’ve backed Parsons at 33/1 and had my max stake of £10! Here’s hoping for a repeat of last yr when Silver Birch did the business…
wacky Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Hi System man,I think you have nailed your sails to the mast to soon.Parson’s is running at the festival and will only have 3 weeks to recover from that this year.Also i think you should look back thru your records and let us know when the last winner was that only had 3 runs? But all that aside i think it has the class to be placed.
Oormarlon Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Does anyone know if Character Building has been ruled out now? I can’t find it on any bookmakers now, he was down to 20-1 on Coral too?
Dan Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Can someone clarify the Top Speed requirements. Is it what they have recorded that season or in the career?
wacky Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Character building is 25/1 with only 3 bookmakers and 269/1 on betfair so i would say that its a doubtful runner.As lays go this would have been the easiest lay ever!!!
Brody Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 11:47 am
Character Building is injured and out till next season.
Dan Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Sticky 99 - if you go onto the racing post website and look at cornish rebel and the entries it has the Kim Muir is an intented target. Yet Parsons Legacy does not have an entry for the Kim Muir. I note what you said earlier but check the entries each horse has on their profile?? Does this now mean that Parsons is going straight to Aintree?
Dan Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Systems Man - you mention that Black Apalchi has only won over 2m4 but on 27.12.05 it won a 3m race - the Paddy Power Chase??
Systems Man Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Dan -this is what I said
“black apalachi - RPR best 133, TS best 119. Will he stay? (only won over 24F)”.
The RPR and TS are all wrong and he may not stay having won only once at 24F. Current price Cor 50/1, Lad 60/1 (way to high for the right profile).
HE WONT WON!
sticky99 Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 4:14 pm
According to the Racing Post Website Parsons Legacy is entered for:
11 Mar 2008 4:00 (Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3
13 Mar 2008 4:40 (Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
5 Apr 2008 4:15 (Five Day) at AINTREE, John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3
sticky99 Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 4:23 pm
If you search for Cornish Rebel on RP then look at the entries it has the Kim Muir as one. If you click on the race it then shows the entries of which Parsons Legacy is one of them. If you then click on the horse and then its entries it shows those three as the entries.
If you search for Parsons Legacy straght away it doesn’t show them for a strange reason. But I think he is an intended runner on the 13th ahead of the 11th.
Dan Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Thanks Sticky99 - can see that now and must say now put off Parsons Legacy. Horses that run at Cheltenham dont have a great record in the National. The exception Bindaree and Silver Birch
Dan Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Beef or Salmon not running in the National - weights will go up - how will this affect everyones choices?
Systems Man Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:52 pm
So lets have a little review at this tricky stage:
What was the OR and weight of the last ten GN winners? (and you will see why the OR is SO important)
2007 138(OR) 10.06(weight) 33/1 price
2006 138 10.08 11/1
2005 144 11.01 7/1F
2004 139 10.10 16/1
2003 139 10.07 16/1
2002 136 10.04 20/1
2001 140 10.11 33/1
2000 139 10.12 10/1
1999 142 10.00 10/1
1998 147 10.05 7/1
So every GN winner for th last five years has had a OR of 138 to 144 (5/5) and every GN winner for the last 10 years has had a OR of 136 to 147 (10/10, excluding 1998 it would be 136 to 144!).
So how do we find the winner?
Take basic trends (ONE)
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
AND ADD (TWO)
RPR of 144 or above (in any tye of Chase during racing career) - this is a 10/10 trend
TS of 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) - this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
AND ADD (THREE)
exclude any horse who has a OR above 145 = 10.12 (which will go up ow to at last 11.00)
Who does that leave from the origional list 0f 29 who met the basic trend ONE above.
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,
The Shorter list: 29 down to 13
McKelvey
Cloudy Lane
Mon Mome
Cornish Sett
Royal Auclair
Kelami
Point Barrow
Sir Rembrandt
Cornish Rebel
d’Argent
Naunton Brook
Parsons Legacy
Comply or Die
So lets be a bit more risky and exclude any horse who has completed the Grand National but not won and any horse currently priced at 50/1 by either Corals or Ladrookes.
This leaves us with: 7 (in no order) + one possible
Cloudy Lane OR 141
Point Barrow OR 143
d’Argent OR 142
Naunton Brook OR 140
Parsons Legacy OR 140
Comply or Die OR 139
Mon Mome (cant find a Coral’s price, 25/1 with Lad) OR 141
Bewleys Berry OR 144 - can only be included if we accept his 18K C1 G2 Nov Hurd race instead of a Chase
We can review this list nearer the time.
Any better ideas on the winner?
Dan Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:03 pm
You could be even more riskier and exclude any horses running at cheltenham. The last 10 winners only 2 have ran at the festival and gone onto win the big one. This would leave us with;
Point Barrow (doubt as 6 runs this season and too many ‘0′ against name)
D’Argent (French but meets all of the trends)
Naunton Brook (
Bewleys Berry
Dan Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
…..Naunton Brook (Not won a Class 1 or 2 race)
Bewleys Berry (Only 2 runs so far )
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
So after all that we’ve been left with 0?
You’ve got to laugh.
In truth though, you can find positives and negatives for every horse in the race. I think we should stick to the 7(or
Systems Man has come up with after his extensive research and maybe discuss those.
He’s done all the work for us. Well done mate
Brian Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Why rule out horses that are currently at 50/1 or more.
This time last year i got on Silver birch when it was 100/1 and then after the first non runner declarations it dropped to 50/1.
It wasn’t until after it run at cheltenham that its price dropped down to 28/1 and then drifted back to 33/1 prior to the race starting.
I agree 50/1 or bigger winners rarely win but the trend is for the SP and not Ante post prices.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Hi Dan - sorry to be a nitpicker but r u sure dargent is french . he has a french name but im sure he s an irish bred. i surely hope so as ive been lumping on under the assumption hes not a french bred. his biggest drawback is that he is a grey ! last grey to win was nicklaus silver when i was a mere glint in my fathers eye. hoever surely the colur of a horse makes no difference as to whwther it can win the national. i remember suny bay performing miracles round here with nearly twelve stone on his back and only being outpointed by that old mud lover earth summit… can anyone confirm dargents nationality ….! ?? please say he is irish
sticky99 Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
D’Argent is Irish accoding to RP
Dan Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Sorry I wasnt sure just looked at the name! This is what is under its name on the racing post website;
Trainer: A King Owner: Nigel Bunter
Breeder: Navan Stables
Roselier(FR) (16.0f) - Money Galore(IRE) (Monksfield(13.0f))
Dan Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:31 pm
D’Argent is surely the one then!
wacky Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Hi system man,I think your 7 that you narrowed it down will have our national winner.I’ve stepped in on betfair and i’ve backed D’ARGENT at 94/1.I’ve just sent a text to a mate who knows someone that has a horse with alan king,asking him to tell them to leave the BLINKERS OFF on the 5th april.Will let you know if i get any success!!I know what you are all thinking,but he who dares WINS!!!!
Systems Man Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:07 pm
d’Argnet is listed as Irish as others also confirm. Yes he is a cracking bet if his price comes down a bit nearer to the race (but get the 40/1 now) and must be in any short list along with Point Barrow (clearly aimed at the National) and Parsons Legacy (got all the right trends).
I will post on the positives and negatives of my 7 against the field later. The question is have I got the right 7?
The one key factor that I am going to stick with is the OR rating. The winner will be between OR 136 and 144!
Stephen Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Some great narrowing down there Systems Man - I like your style!
I can’t see D’Argent winning the National. It is a very very tricky year to choose a winner. I have been hugely confident the past three years and that has produced two out of three winners. But this year I am in a quandry.
Stats Man Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Very dissapointing to see that Parsons Legacy may run at Cheltenham. I think last yr there was a bigger gap between Cheltenham and Aintree which would have helped Silver Birch. My other big hopes were Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry but they didn’t run well last week. I’m thinking of disregarding a few of the ‘lesser’ trends now in the hope something else will jump out at me from the list!
wacky Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
System man,I can’t have Mon Mome on the account of only having 1 run so far and i think you will find that in recent years the winner has run before christmas.I see Comply or die is running at the weekend so lets see what happens there.Still a novice so not so sure it will stay on my list.Does anyone know if Sir Rembrandt is running before the big day?Still on my shortlist if it runs again!
Stephen Says:
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:48 pm
Interesting to note the Point Barrow is now back in to 20/1 from 28/1 with Skybet. Paddy Power had it at 33/1 earlier in the week and had to drop it back to 20/1 aswell. Maybe all hope is not lost on him yet!
I’m dying to hear your positives and negatives on your top 7 Systems man.
Showlad Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 12:28 am
I really can’t help but feel, if back to full fitness, that McKelvey has to be there at the finish in the frame. I notice his odds are shortening today - I wonder if positive news has filtered through re his recovery?
Miinnehoma Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 5:24 am
This is the vote from the Irish jury on the magniicent 7+1
Cloudy Lane - ok
Point Barrow - 2 slow, would need a motor bike under his barrow.
D’Argent - 2 Warwick, 5 chase wins - 4 at Warwick. Mr. King said on Jan.’05 and march ‘07 “He’s not an Aintree horse.”
Naunton Brook - 2 low class and pu last yr.
Parsons Legacy - ok
Comply or Die - ok
Mon Mome - 2 French
Bewleys Berry - 2 poor a strike rate in chases.
p.s. Last 17 winners all had won at least 3 chases and ran 2-7 prep races.
Systems Man Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Part 3.
Lets prick that red cherry that Point Barrow has had too many runs to win.
Here are the runs/results prior to their GN win for the last ten years from August preceeding the year of their win in April.
2007 2 (the race before the GN win).4.2.8 = 4 runs
2006 3.4.4.BD.4.8 = 6 runs
2005 1.6.10.4.2.9. = 6 runs
2004 5.PU.2.4.3 = 5 runs
2003 4.6.3.1.3 = 5 runs
2002 7.6.3.3.5.7 = 6 runs
2001 F.2.5.5.4.1 = 6 runs
2000 3.9.4.5.7.8 = 6 runs
1999 1.4.5.13.8.5 = 6 runs
1998 5.6.1.5.5 = 5 runs
So you see every winner for the last ten years the winner has had between 4 and 6 prep races. So allowing for a possible miner change in the trends we should exclude any horse with less than 3 prep races or more than 7 (there is probably only time for one more prep race)
Every winner has had a prep race coming either 1, 2nd or 3rd. Again allowing for a miner change in this trend we should exclude any hosre who has not come 4th in a prep race since August (be careful as there still still time for another prep race, so recheck in the week before the race.
Now lets turn to my final 7 against the field.
CLOUDY LANE OR 141.
POSITIVE: Meets almost all trends. Has class(PRP:156 and TS:143)
NEGATIVE: Two wins this season (no other winner in 10 years has has 2 wins in prep races).
Verdict: Keep on reserve list - review later
POINT BARROW OR 143
POSITIVE: Almost perfect profile. Clearly aimed at National (Note: 6 prep runs - spot on!). Winner of the Irish National.
NEGATIVE: best prep race result 4th (but its only a very miner blemish, he was 2nd in April ‘07.
Low TS rating of 129 (but two winners have had less!)
VERDICT: A must for any short list - take a price now!
D’ARGENT: OR 142 (IRISH!!)
POSITIVE: Perfect profile. 2nd in Midlands National March ‘07
NEGATIVE: Cant find any
VERDICT: A must for any short list at big price now (but not so big as to rule him out)
NAUNTON BROOK: OR 140
POSITIVE: Good profile
NEGATIVE: Not won a class 1 or two chase. PU in GN last year. 66/1 with Lad - exclude
VERDICT: Exclude
PARSONS LEGACY: OR 140
POSITIVE:3rd in Scottish National
NEGATIVE: Only two prep runs!! Will run at Cheltenham? (3 weeks prior to GN)giving him 3 prep runs (one short is only a miner blemish)
VERDICT: I still like this horse despite the lack of prep runs. He has a good alround profile.
COMPLY OR DIE: OR 139
POSITIVE: Good profile
NEGATIVE: Only won Claas1 Nov Chase.
VERDICT; Stays on short list.
Mon Mome: or 141
POSITIVE: 2nd in Welsh Nat.
NEGATIVE: French! Only one prep run!!!
VERDICT: Exclude. One prep run and PU!
FINAL VERDICT: (In Order)
D’ARGENT
POINT BARROW
COMPLY OR DIE
PARSONS LEGACY
RESERVE
CLOUDY LANE
EXCLUDE
Mon Mome
NAUNTON BROOK
WARNING: We must review this list and any you have at each stage and again in race week. We may still need to add or subtract runners. This list is for an eary price.
Now I have given you my four against the field - who are yours and why?
kj Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
I have not backed alot antepost because it often seems to doom them even surviving to start! I backed nil desperandum last year, bad experience and it was the first year in 8 I haven’t won. Two of those years I’d backed 3 of the 4 places! and last year all 4 places were on my shortlist of 10,I backed all 6 of the rest in a desperate attempt to keep what I think must be a record (brag,brag)I knew I’d loose, why, I felt it and too much study! Although I do analyse weight,age,jumping ability,staying power recent performances and going! I also include topical/news tendancies and current lucky numbers and letters eg.numbersixvalverde won in 2006 and six did seem lucky plus it was irish and what about point to point racing ey nobody has mentioned it!? Anyway,I should have picked out silver birch. After seeing it in cheltenham cross country it was on my shortlist and 2007 felt just like 2006 failed to link up feelings! another lucky number, not 6 but 3! usually 2 3’s.lots of news stories involved 33people or people who were 33etc second half of year was very unlucky for this no.by the way!silver birch was for a long time 33-1 and on the day wore 30.This year form and fondness points to D’argent jumps,stays negatives aintree and grey
topical wand!!! is positive silver(argent)as a metal is having a renaissance apparently and silver birch won last year! or was that it. My unknown horse technique, bought up kilbeggan blade, horses and sports people with names starting with a k then b have won or scored.Sensible analysis makes you think place at best, but hey my feelings have won the race 7 times in a row, bindaree was just a feeling.I also feel McKelvey may have a prominent couple of letters.Will think/feel further ey
Systems Man Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Sorry my mistake the final order (subject to review) is:
FINAL VERDICT: (In Order)
D’ARGENT
POINT BARROW
PARSONS LEGACY
COMPLY OR DIE
Stephen Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Loving your work Systems Man and I am in agreement with you on so many issues.
I would love Point Barrow to win after crashing out at the first last year. He fills so many of the trends and I’m hoping his best this year has been saved for Aintree by his shrewd irish trainer. The Irish have made this race their own recently winning 6 of the last 9 and I hope that trend continues. He has been my main hope since last year.
D’Argent is looking more appealing by the second and still available at 40/1 with some bookies. It should be worth a small EW bet. He has stamina on his side after coming second in the Midlands National. Small negative is that he is a grey and they rarely win the National. Although that could be because they aren’t many around! Solid chance.
I can’t see Parsons Legacy winning due to not having the right number of prep runs and the fact he will run at Cheltenham only having three weeks to recover for Aintree. I’ve never liked Cheltenham runners in the National.
Comply Or Die ran a blinder today to win the Eider under a huge weight. I’m hoping he doesn’t run at Cheltenham and heads straight to Aintree as he will have had five prep runs and has the class to do well there. But you think he might of had his day today and you have to remember he was a few lengths down on Cloudy Lane at the start of the season so this pays a huge compliment to his chances.
Cloudy Lane looks a very worthy favourite at this stage and will probably start that on the day itself with the McCain factor. The two wins do worry me and I’m hoping he runs next weekend in the Grimthorpe as opposed to at Cheltenham. He is 10/1 now so if he wins next weekend he could be a very short price for the big one. Excellent claims.
What a race this is shaping up to be.
SIKVER BIRCH Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Great final 4 systems man - i reckon most of us are coming to a similar conclusion as the weeks go by …
THE TOP 4 have to be
Dargent
point barrow
comply or die
cloudy lane
with saver on
parsons legacy
Although the subject has already been touched upon i cant ever remember my key fancies all having such a preponderance to wearing blinkers although it didnt seem to affect mckelvey or whats up boys too much nor deny earth summit. i loved comply or dies jumping yest but the nagging doubt is that he has his day in the sun yesterday.Nevertheless it would be folly to rule him out…will be interesting to watch cloudy lane in the grimthorpe next week. !
wacky Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Hi Guys,Got some bad news about D’argent from my sorce in alan kings stable.The word is that D’argent will go for the Midlands National. I have 1 question before i go~has any horse won the Eider chase and gone on to win the national? My shortlist is down to 4 but im not feeling confident about any of them!! CLOUDY LANE,POINT BARROW<SIR REMBRANDT AND NAUNTON BROOK (not on stats just have a feeling about it)
kj Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
oh bother,
put some money on D’argent last night my antepost record sucks! will back him in the midlands then.I’ve also backed Comply or Die, even though with a name like that I’d rather not, he impressed yesterday and in the past.When Hedgehunter debuted in the GN I said, with a name like that it’ll either fall and die at the first or win! as we all know he fell at the last then won the next, a better outcome than my prediction and what a great national horse why hasn’t the handicapper given him a fair chance since? does anyone know where I can bet on horses you know will finish?
Systems Man Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
We dont wat to waste money at this stage so all the information on D’Argent we can get the better (anyone know any more?). If he is heading for the Midlands National (and this would be a very logical choice for him)we should hold fire on an anti post bet for a while (drat and there was I looking forward to holding 40/1 on him!).
The whole exercise will be a lot easier when we get closer to the GN and we know who is running.
Just hold on to these key trends and use them closer to the race date.
ONE
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
TWO
RPR of 144 or above
TS of 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) - this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
THREE
Include only runners with three or more Chase wins (any type, Nov, Han, Non Han)
FOUR
Exclude any horse who has a OR above 145
FIVE
Exclude any horse who has not completed at least 3 prep runs (we are making some allowance here) since August 2007 by the beginning of April.
And you should have a small short list with the winner!
Systems Man Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
“we should hold fire on an anti post bet for a while” - I meant D’Argent only until we know a little more, from all those in the know out there.
You must take an anti post bet on Point Barrow now as his price can only drop and he will be in any short list of 4 against the field (and is aimed at the GN).
Stephen Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Great knowledge and work once again Systems Man.
I’d suggest forgetting anything from 11st 2lbs and up as Hedgehunter with 11st 1lbs has carried the highest weight recently and he was a high class horse. It’s very tricky to win with a lot of weight.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Thats a bit of a bummer about dargent. i thot he would have had a massive chance . is it outwith the realms of possibility that he could potantially go for both ?… i know its asking a lot but if my memory serves me correct Lord Gylene finished 2nd in the midlands national before prevailing at aintree a few weeks later.. maybe all is not lost yet…lets keep our fingers xd…
Systems Man Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Just one more trend for everyone to consider (should help on the day of the race and in race week if we make some small allowances for some change in price):
“Despite its reputation as being a lottery for punters, 13 of the last 16 winners of the race were in the first eight in the betting”-starting price. (I think that excludes 2007 so its 13 from 17).
Systems Man Says:
February 24th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Revised list as a result of Comply or Die’s win on over 33F on Saturday.
1. Comply or Die - class and sped to win
2. POINT BARROW
3. PARSONS LEGACY
4. D’ARGENT - awaiting more info - will he run in GN? Hold your bets for a while.
RESERVE
CLOUDY LANE
kj Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 1:14 am
There are quite a few GN winners sired by Roselier aren’t there, guess what D’argent is too!
so he didn’t have a good time the only time he’s been to aintree, but sometimes he doesn’t run a good race, doesn’t mean he hates it there, hope they reconsider with that weight and breeding. Comply or die looks like a good ticket to have though. Going to wait now see if it rains
Dan Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 11:32 am
I note what everyone is saying about Point Barrow as I would love him to win and have already put a few quid on 25/1. However, If you look at his form there are too many ‘0′ next to his name. Look at all the other winners;
2007 2 4.2.8
2006 3.4.4.BD.4.8
2005 1.6.10.4.2.9.
2004 5.PU.2.4.3
2003 4.6.3.1.3
2002 7.6.3.3.5.7
2001 F.2.5.5.4.1
2000 3.9.4.5.7.8
1999 1.4.5.13.8.5
1998 5.6.1.5.5
Point Barrow 008040
I dont mean to be picky here but clearly Point Barrow has not been in great form this season and not other profile has as many ‘0′
Brian Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
My four horses at the moment are:
Bewleys Berry,
Point Barrow,
Parsons Legacy &
Kelami.
3 other horses i am mulling over are D’Argent, Baily Breeze and Cornish Rebel.
Dan Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
My four horses at present are;
1. COMPLY OR DIE (took 95’s on betfair before sat)
2. POINT BARROW
3. CLOUDY LANE
4. D’Argent but if doesnt run then would have to be
PARSOSN LEGACY
Brian Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Would you be put off a horse just because it has run at the cheltenham festival?
Stats show that 5 out of the last 6 winners had there final prep race in march.
Dan Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Hmmmm I think I would be put off. Only Bindaree and Silver Birch in the last 10 years have ran at the festival and go onto win the National. I think a prep race in March is a stroll in the park compared to running in a big race at Cheltenham
Andrew Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
I think you can eliminate any 10yos.
Its been about 60 years since the same age won 3 years in a row and they have won the last 2.
Brian Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Has any other horse apart from Numbersixvalverde won the national without ever running at Aintree before?
If not would you class this as strong enough trend to look at while compiling your shortlist?
Brian Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Hmm forget last question. Just found the answer and it nots a big enough trend to consider
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Andrew, if you go on Previous Winners on this very website you will see that the winners in ‘99, ‘00 and ‘01 were all 9 year olds.
Andrew Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Jimmy, I think they have got the 2001 result wrong. According to the racing post site Red Marauder was born 1990 which means he would have been an 11yo when he won.
Jimmy Boy Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Controversial… someone will be checking Red Marauder’s birthday next
Stats Man Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
It seems pretty clear that no one horse fits the bill perfectly. Which stats should we DEFINITELY go with and which ones should we make allowances for? I still like Parsons Legacy and if he had a prep run in the next couple of weeks at somewhere other than Cheltenham I reckon most people would be on!
Systems Man Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Well my money went on COMPLY OR DIE today and he must have a fantastic chance with only 10.06 (will to be 10.08 at least). Has all the right trends (after his Sat win) with real class and speed.
I noticed that POINT BARROW was down to 20/1 at Ladbrooks.
Both these horses are now in the rigt price bracket and I suspect will drop even further.
Miinnehoma Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Dan,Dan, your the man. Thank you for saving my sanity with your note on Point Barrow’s form figures v the last 10 winners.
Every so often we punters fall into the old trap, if the horse does not quite fit the trend we tweak the trend to fit the horse.
For all those that are on Point Barrow I do hope he wins by 10 lengths and if he does I will say, I knew he was a cracker.But for now I have to look at the facts.
His TS rating for chases is 105 not 129. the 129 is for hurdles and he won’t see many of those at Aintree. Monty’s Pass had the lowest TS of 111 and the second lowest was HedgeHunter at 126 not 128 as stated.
Some might point to his shocking form before winning the Irish National. In those 5 prep races for the Irish National he was beaten 84 lengths in total. In his last prep race (if it is his last) for the Aintree National he was beaten 83 lengths, thats 83 lengths in 1 race.In his 6 prep races this year he has been beaten 251 lengths. What more can I say, after that rant he must be a dead cert.
Stephen Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 9:35 am
So what is your tip Miinnehoma?
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 11:30 am
to all us point barrow fans out there maybe all is not lost … amberleigh house finished a gallant third in the national behind montys pass in 2003 i think….he ran a great race that day and wasnt far away from winning the thing… his final prep race before aintree…. the red square vodka gold cup …where he finished plum last !! there were 15 finishers that day and he was beaten by about 60 lengths … so lets hang on to those ante post vouchers for just a little while on pb .. maybe he wont win it but a bad run in the red square at haydock doesnt seem to stop horses coming on and performing well at aintree.the dream lives on
Brian Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
“Andrew Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Jimmy, I think they have got the 2001 result wrong. According to the racing post site Red Marauder was born 1990 which means he would have been an 11yo when he won.”
Red Marauder was indeed an 11 year old when he won but i still wouldn’t be ruling out any 10 year olds based on that trend. Otherwise the trends you could find would be endless i.e the winner wont have a SP of a odd/1 (eg 7/1, 9/1, 11/1 etc) as this has never happened 4 times in a row before. The last time two 10 year olds won it in a row this was followed up by a 7 year old winning it.
admin Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Hi everyone,
Apologies for the problems re Red Marauder’s age - we are sorting things out but it takes a little while to update.
Thanks
Systems Man Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Miinnehoma said “Point Barrow - TS rating for chases is 105 not 129″
Looks like a bad mistake on my part all to do with rushing to get it on this Blog. Yes Point Barrow would be stting a new trend with a TS of 105 (does not loook good does it?).
I stand by Comply or Die as the No1 outstanding bet at this stage.
and
Parsons Legacy
and
D’Argent - if he runs (but wait before you put any money on him)
For my sins I am goig to relook at all the runners over the next few days to see what I can come up with.
wacky Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Hi Systems Man,I have to ask you what your reasoning behind backing Comply or Die? As most horses dont win a race after the weights are declared+ I cant remember a horse winning over 4 miles before the big day.Also i have grave doubts about the quality of the field it beat,would you back elvis returns in a grade 1 chase? I think you will find that very few (if any)horses have won over 4 miles in the same year.Hedgehunter,numbersix and silver birch all won over a longer distance at least 1 season before. Sorry mate only trying to help.Good news thou they are having a rethink about D’argent running, but hold your bets until i get the green light.
Stephen Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
There are holes to be picked in everything if we try hard enough. There will never be a way to pick the ‘perfect’ National horse. The main factors are there for all to see and I think we all agree on.
I don’t think factors like ‘not having the same age win three times in a row’ or ‘horses winning over 4 miles in the same year’, should count. They are too ambiguous. Otherwise we could be here forever….. ‘horse number 23 has never won, or whatever’
I have to say I am loving this blog though and debating the candidates for the big day in April!
wacky Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Hi S Man,Could you tell us why Sir Rembrandt isn’t on the shortlist? I realised it pulled up last time,but it is running again on the 1st of march.So providing it runs a good race it will fit all the stats.RPR & TS,4 runs this season,won welsh national,won £18,000 grade 1 chase,under 11st and run a fair race in the hennessy.I know its 12yrs old but how many times in the last 3yrs has this horse had to lumber top weight? When it went to chelt with 10st 2lb at the start of the season it had Simon, L’ami,D’argent and Comply or die well in arrears!!!Look out everyone!!!
Miinnehoma Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 5:44 am
To Systems Man, Fair dinkum, keep up the good work.
TO Stephen,
For what it’s worth I still have 8 in the mix. A few might surprise you, as they do me but each 1 fits my idea of the winning trend.
Butler’s Cabin, Snowy Morning, Sir Rembrant, Cornish Rebel, Cloudy Lane, Cornish Sett, Parsons Legacy and Comply or Die.
My No.1 Parsons Legacy - home and hosed - maybe.
The cheltenham factor not a problem if you look at the bigger picture. 6 out of the last 17 winners ran at cheltenham, with a gap of 16 - 31 days. 1/16, 2/23, 2/25 and 1/31. Parsons should have 23 days rest. I think thats why his last 2 races were 18 days apart, the quick 1-2, then 2 months off and then the quick 1-2 again. He will need to be 3rd. at least at cheltenham and will need good ground at aintree.
The class horse in the race at the wts. and who is head and shoulders above everyone else has to be Sir Rembrant - 2nd., 3rd. and 7th. in the gold cup. New trainer, new lease on life, ok - last race not good but if he takes to the track and keeps up close to the pace,
He Will Destroy Them All.
On the other hand if he gets 2 far behind early on, he will spit out the dummy and pu. bless him.
Brian Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 11:00 am
What are peoples views of Dun Doire, presuming he gets in that is?
As i have a feeling that if he does get in then he could be the dark horse this year
Systems Man Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
I am working on a complete re review (due to my mistake about Point Barow and his low TS rating)of all the original 29 horses that met this original minimum trends:
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
The horses were (one of them will win the 2008 GN!):
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run
All will be explained when I post the results and why each is excluded or included. Will take a day or two yet.
Dan Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
I cant help thinking that we might be missing a few horses at the lower end of the weights. At present and looking at the list above the lowest weight would be Philson Run who would carry 10st 7 (as BOS now out). I cant see the lowest weight being 10st 7. Here are some horses currently alloted 10st 5 or less (will be 2lb higher on the day so bear that in mind;
4-55P5 Ursumman 9 10-5
166P0 Ardaghey 9 10-4
11-7PP Baron Windrush 10 10-4
55734 Boychuk 7 10-4
51P-06 Dun Doire 9 10-4
/781P Joes Edge 11 10-4
31P32 Kilbeggan Blade 9 10-4
Any of the above worth a shout? What about Kilbeggan Blade?
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Dan - I agree with your Kilbeggan blade shout -he won a 3m 6f race at sandown earlier on this season worth 20k and he fits systems mans base trends above - he might not win but wouldnt put u off backing him for a place… i still reckon we are all making a huge error in dissing the french breds ….i reckon both royal auclair and mon mome must have a massive shout….mon mome bounced back to form today - he could yet be the big springer in the market
Systems Man Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Who will run?
These are the key dates supplied by the Aintree racecourse:
Weights revealed February 5
First forfeit stage March 4
Second forfeit stage March 18
Five/six-day confirmation stage March 31,
Final declaration stage 10.00am, April 3.
wacky Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
I can cut systems mans list very easily 1/ Knock out all french bred. 2/ Knock out any horse allocated 11st plus 3/Knock out any horse that wont have had 4 runs this season.That leaves a shortlist of 10 and even if the horse allocated 10st 4lb get in the race they wont fit enough stats.As it stands i believe that only 3 horses will fit the stats come the big day.I will post my 3 on sunday and would be good if anyone could guess my picks before then?
kj Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
hey you guys are considering my funny feelin horse kilbeggan blade, he does have several tangeable factors suggesting he could be thereabouts. I am enjoying the recent reassessment and expansion of this argument because for all the amazing statistical analysis people like systems man do, he hasn’t won thing thing as often as I have;7 of last 8 adding funny feelings etc!!
I agree with Dan about Kilbeggan, the french Royal Auclair who will run on at the end on a very low weight! and Mon Mome, Kelami?
I also agree with Miinehomma about Sir
Rembrandts chances.Baron Windrush has also already been noted he is still only 10! I fancied Philson Run the year before last when he didn’t get in, would back in the mud! Worried these three get my attention because they have been around so long and I am being sentimental.
Starting to get intersted in lookin at Parsons Legacy whom I have wierdly ignored as I have never followed him as he has never impressed me. BUT,the cheltenham racing facts holding up and the fact he is running 23 days later, the spookiest magic number has now been noted,also topical name, remember the Archbishop of Canterburys recent comments! will watch him and see.
Great to hear D’argents camp are reconsidering thanks for the update Wacky! blinkers do worry me though,I think alot on my current list are regular wearers what happens when they take them back off a horse for one race?
To recap I am already on D’argent and Comply or die.
Definate maybe- Kilbeggan,Mckelvey,Royal Auclair Kelami,
Considering Sir Remb,Baron Windrush,Black apalachi,Joes edge,Naunton Brook,Cloudy lane,Cornish,and how about old Longshanks can any horse win fresh?
Favs on this blog I wouldn’t consider are Point barrow,bewleys berry,dun doire
sticky99 Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
wacky,
i reckon your 3 against the field are:
Comply Or Die
D’Argent
Black Appalachi
was I close??
My fancy would be Parsons Legacy:
10 years old (right age)
10st 7lb at least (correct weight)
had 19 runs over fences (over 10)
has won a class 1 race over 3m
has won a race worth over £17,000 (£39,000)
his RPs are increasing showing he is improving
has been placed once in his last 3 runs (would need to place in the Kim Muir to keep trend)
has had more than two years experience in chases
has come 5th in a Hennessy
has come 3rd in a Scots National
is Hobbs’ 1st choice so likely to have Jonhson on board
Dan Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Wacky - your top 3 are (in no order);
Sir Rembrandt
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
If i’m not right how many did I get?
bob Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Hey we getting some interesting comments but all it does is confuse me but its all good fun. My 3 against the field are. CLOUDY LANE. PARSONS LEGACY AND GOOD OLD POINT BARROW Not giving up on him yet. Got 25s 33s and 25s so quite happy.
wacky Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Hi Guys,If you haven’t had a bet yet i would advise waiting until the 4th march now,as this is the next chance of any horses being withdrawn.If you fancy Cloudy Lane,Mr Pointment or Sir Rembrandt it maybe best to take a price as if they run ok on saturday the bookies are bound to cut there prices.
Showlad Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Hi All. Systems man - lovin’ your work. Could you possibly (or anyone) list some of the irregular traits/winners from the recent past eg horses that won that had traits definitely not fitting stats - too old, too heavy a weight, never won over 3miles, low handicap rating etc etc.
Would be good as these rarities can still crop up!
wacky Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Hi Showlad,If you buy a racing post on grand national day you will find a page that gives trends on the national for the last 10yrs.I know that it is hard to believe that the winner will fit around 7/8 stats but it has for a long time.Silver Birch fitted all the stats last year but i didn’t put much money on it because of the going on the day.My shortlist wont change now and if the stats hold up,one of my 3 that are left will win!!Just have to PRAY the trends aren’t broken this YEAR!!
Johnny Valentine Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
I’ve been reading the blog with interest over the last few days. Fascinating stuff. Thanks to everyone who’s chipped in with expert analysis.
I’ve had my bet already, though I’m no expert. Point Barrow. Cards on the table. Looks like an identikit Grand National winner and his preparation is not dissimilar to last year, although (like many of you) I would have prefered a better run last time out.
Having said that, I remember watching Earth Summit (another plodder who relished heavy conditions) tootle round at Haydock, failing to inspire confidence, before winning the Grand National in 1998.
Point Barrow has got a cracking weight again this year and the Irish trainers are canny when it comes to keeping the spotlight off their horses in the run-up to the National. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Hughes throws him into a hurdle race in Ireland over the next three weeks to freshen him up.
It will mean a lot of races for the horse over the last few months, but it has not been a gruelling schedule. In many races he’s hardly been tested.
The reason I’m posting is… D’Argent has caught my eye, but I’m puzzled by a couple of trainer Alan King’s comments.
‘He’s not an Aintree horse,’ after coming 2nd to Baron Windrush in the Midlands National (March 2007) and ‘he’s not a Grand National horse’ after again coming 2nd to Baron Windrush, this time at Warwick (January 2005).
The stats add up. But the trainer’s not keen. Can anyone explain…?
Systems Man Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Re: Point Barrow (who I like but we must not get attached to any one horse when using trends)
Learn from my mistake. Point Barrow does not have the all important TS rating of 128! (i.e. has not got the speed to win and most of his races have been measured))
My earlier note:
Must (9/10) have 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) - this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
Now this should help you all:
In the last ten years other than the 10th year 1998 (which was OR 147)all winners had a OR of 136 to 144 (such a short range is it not!).
So we are looking for a horse who meets all the key trends and has a current weight between 10.05 and 10.11(i am assuming at this stage that OR 136 and 137, 10.03 and 10.04 will not make the cut - if any do we will need to assess them later.
So its easy for anyone to find the winner now is it not! So lets have your predictions based on the key trends please (or do i have to do all the work?).
These are:
A
1. 8 to 12 years old
2. handicap rating above 135 on the day
3. weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
4. won over at least three miles
5. run in at least ten chases
6. won a chase worth at least £17,000
Gives us these 29
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,
B
7. OR 136 to 144(will give a cut off point of 10.13 when at least 2 lbs are added to all weights)
8. TS 128 (in a case during racing career)
C
9. Won at least three Chase races (any kind)
10. Has now had at least 3 prep runs (still time for one more).
11. Has run in at least 9 chases (any kind. Need 10 but there is still time fo another prep race)
12. Won class 1 or 2 chase 10/10
Stop here if you can and are down to 4 or less.
Now if your short list is still too long (more than 4)you may want to take a litle risk and use these two factors.
13. 9 out of the last ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Handicap Chase prior to wining the National (in 2002 Bindraee won a Nov Chase).
14. 9 out of ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Chase with 13 or more runners competing (7/10 were in Han Chases. two were Nov Chases and again in 2002 Bindaree had only won in a Chase with 8 runners.)
wacky Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Hi SYstems Man,I have noticed that the last 3 winners of the national have won a race over 3m 4f.Do you think that this is another trend forming? My final 3 are between 10st 7lb & 10st 10lb in the current weights and im fairly sure that won’t change!
Showlad Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Hi Wacky. Thanks for the advice but my bets will all be on well ahead of the Big Day
I’d been following Silver Birch from his Welsh National win, then his year out and then gradually coming back into form last year. I saw him being hardly tipped at all, but stuck to my guns none the less and got him at very long odds on betfair for last years race. Let’s just say I did rather well.
Wonder when we’ll get any news re McKelvey? Sir Remabrandt looks very interesting too and at a great weight and I also think Billyvoddan (though carrying a bit too much weight, but massive odds on betfair) and D’Argent are worth a look. Dunbrody Millar would be a bit of a dark horse and Longshanks too, but they may not make the cut.
Miinnehoma Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 9:37 am
This might be of some interest to any Sir Rembrandt fans that like coincidence.
2003 Welsh National
1st. Bindaree 9 10-9 10/1
2nd. Sir Rembrandt 7 11-4 2/1f.
3rd. Hedgehunter 7 10-2 7/2
dist. 1/2L.and 22L.
They say things happen in 3’s.
Miinnehoma Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 10:33 am
To Systems Man,
Based solely on those facts and rules and only looking for the winner - anything can be placed and thats another days work.
My 4 would be and not in any order -
Sir Rembrandt, Cloudy Lane, Cornish Sett, and Comply Or Die.
Andrew Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Of the last 16 winners 14 had previously run in a national ( grand,welsh,scottish,irish,kerry or midlands) with 12 of them placing.
Of the 2 that ran unplaced Red Marauder had a 5th place in the Hennessey and Royal Athlete had a 3rd in the gold cup.
Of the two not to have run in a National, Rough Quest ran 2nd in the gold cup which just leaves Seagram who won a 14 runner chase at Cheltenham in his prep run.
I havent gone through all the runners yet but I will be looking for a horse with a previous place in a national or top 6 in the gold cup or Hennessey and then keep an eye on anything that wins at Cheltenham. This should narrow the field down before applying any other trends.
Stats Man Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Last year I was convinced Ossmoses was going to win and had £20 on, but then he got injured. I ended up backing Silver Birch so more than got my money back on Ossmoses. Does anyone think Ossmoses can win it this yr? I’ve reluctantly ruled him out as it seems he doesn’t meet enough of the trends this year.
Systems Man Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Ossmoses
OR 136 curently 10.03 (unlikley to make the cut and you will lose your money - if you do want to back him wait till you know if he is in or out).
Only one race this year March ‘07 a Nov Hurdle (race prior to this was Dec 2006)! No chance (has some nice trends otherwise). Sorry
Stats Man Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
thanks Systems Man - I’ll stick to Parsons Legacy for this yr. Do you go on the racing post website? Parsons Legacy is never shown on the antepost betting list for the GN…..seems a bit odd. But he is proced up on all the bookies own websites and I got 35/1 on betfair when the weights were announced.
wacky Says:
February 29th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Just to add another small twist to the race,it looks like Turpin Green is out for the season.That means if Hedgehunter stands its ground there will be a 3lb rise in the weights.I think 2mrws racing will help me decide my main bet for this year,so i will post my final 3 on sunday.I will add 2 that i think have place claims as well!
Dan Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 10:53 am
Based on Systems Mans Trends of;
1. 8 to 12 years old
2. handicap rating above 135 on the day
3. weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
4. won over at least three miles
5. run in at least ten chases
6. won a chase worth at least £17,000
AND
7. OR 136 to 144(will give a cut off point of 10.13 when at least 2 lbs are added to all weights)
8. TS 128 (in a case during racing career)
9. Won at least three Chase races (any kind)
10. Has now had at least 3 prep runs (still time for one more).
11. Won class 1 or 2 chase 10/10
I have come up with the following table;
OR 136-144 TS 128 3+Runs Won 3 chases Won Class 1/2
Rule Surpeme, 152 161 2 Yes Yes
Billyvodden, 151 128 2 Yes Yes
Knight Legend, 151 135 6 Yes No
Simon, 151 161 3 Yes Yes
Ungaro, 150 154 4 Yes Yes
Butlers Cabin, 147 131 3 Yes Yes
Slim Pickings, 147 159 3 No No
Chelsea Harbour,146 127 6 Yes No
Vodka Bleu, 146 141 5 Yes Yes
L’Ami, 145 155 4 Yes Yes
Bewleys Berry, 144 136 2 No No
McKelvey, 144 159 0 Yes Yes
Point Barrow, 143 105 6 Yes Yes
Sir Rembrandt, 143 130 4 Yes Yes
Cornish Rebel, 142 151 2 Yes Yes
D’Argent, 142 167 4 Yes Yes
Baily Breeze, 141 113 5 Yes No
Cloudy Lane, 141 163 4 Yes Yes
Mon Mome, 141 142 1 Yes Yes
Cornish Sett, 140 137 3 Yes Yes
Naunton Brook, 140 167 5 Yes No
Parsons Legacy, 140 162 2 Yes Yes
Royal Auclair, 140 164 5 Yes Yes
Royal County St 140 130 2 Yes Yes
Comply or Die, 139 165 3 Yes Yes
Kelami, 139 155 5 Yes Yes
Black Apalachi, 138 131 5 No Yes
Homer Wells, 138 124 3 Yes Yes
Philson Run, 138 163 2 Yes Yes
The Horses that meet these trends are;
Sir Rembrandt
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
Cornish Sett
Royal Auclair
Comply or Die
Kelami
Some horses could still make this list as another run is schedules, for example Parsons Legacy is running at Cheltenham and tha would make 3 runs.
Dan Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 10:55 am
Also Wacky you mention that ss Turpin Green is out weights will go up by 1lb but if Celestial Gold runs they won’t or is Celestial Gold out?
Stephen Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Some lovely work there Dan/Systems Man.
I am pleased that two of my Ante Post bets are in the 7 that meet the trends.
Comply Or Die and Cloudy Lane all the way!
wacky Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Im fairly sure that Cel gold is a non runner.Like your shortlist Dan but there is 2 french breds on it so your down to 5 in my books.Be ready to see prices being slashed by those tight bookies if any of the nat entrys run a good race!!
Showlad Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Hi All, who’s running today of the Grand Nat front runners?
Dan Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Even though Cloudy Lane won today - that is 3 wins in the last 3 runs, no other profile has this kind of form. Should we be put off by this??
wacky Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 6:05 pm
I must admit Dan that i dont like the form figures of Cloudy lane.I’ve backed it at 20/1 but i will be laying off on the day as with form figures like that its bound to be backed to around 4/1.I must say that i was far from impressed with Sir Rembrandt and as for Mr Pointment you can forget that one for sure!
Dan Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I agree. Wacky what is your list then?
wacky Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Hi Dan,I want to see what comments have been made by the trainers in the racing post 2mrw before i commit myself.But if the stats are upheld its got to be D’ARGENT,SIR REMBRANDT,POINT BARROW and CLOUDY LANE as the final 4.Do you agree?
Systems Man Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
“Even though Cloudy Lane won today - that is 3 wins in the last 3 runs, no other profile has this kind of form”
Correct even though he meets all the other trends this is a very odd profile and I will not back him (but dont let me put you off. No other GN winner in the last ten years has won 2 or three times in ts prep races (he peaked too early - 4 in a row??).
We should also resume Parsons Legacy will run between now and the GN (most likely at Cheltenham) ad is therefore on the short list.
Thanks Dan you saved me a lot of work.
SHORT LIST - in no order
Sir Rembrandt
D’Argent (is he running in GN?)
Cornish Sett
Royal Auclair
Comply or Die
Kelami
Parsons Legacy (to run at Cheltenham)
Cloud