Grand National 2019 – Early Thoughts

Please add your early ideas for the 2019 Grand National to this page

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35 Responses to Grand National 2019 – Early Thoughts

  1. Supersub says:

    Looking forward to next year I have concluded that these are the key things to look for when trying to pinpoint next year’s winner. I am only using the last six years since the modifications were made.

    1) 6/6 – At least 3 prep runs.
    2) 6/6 – Age 8-11.
    3) 6/6 – Placed in a chase contested by at least 18 runners.
    4) 6/6 – RPR at least 5lbs higher than official GN mark.
    5) 6/6 – Top 3 finish in a Class 1 chase over 27f+
    6) 5/6 – 3m chase win (missed by RTW but this was a freak as far as I’m concerned)
    7) 6/6 – Ran within last 91 days
    8) 5/6 – Second season chaser (missed by AE – so that’s now five in a row)
    9) 6/6 – At least 10 chase starts (this is vulnerable due to above stat I feel)
    10) 6/6 – CMP stamina figure 13-16
    11) 6/6 – CMP speed figure 6-10

    Applying these to next year’s field and dismissing anything that fails two or more of the above should give us a very short list from which to work and hopefully will hit the winner.

    In fact, just applying stats 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8 gave us a shortlist of Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly and Final Nudge in this year’s race (see my post from 26 March @1.04pm).

    Fingers crossed there are some solid trends starting to emerge from this modified National that we will be able to apply with confidence going forward as the transitional years became very frustrating for us trends followers.

  2. Maj says:

    On 10) I have it down that OFA had a rating of 17?

  3. daniel edwards says:

    POTTERS POINT another one I’m keeping a keen eye on next season

    Was only a novice this season but got within 10l of Anibale Fly off level weights in the Paddy Power. Won the Kerry National nicely too.

    Currently on 147. I’m predicting a campaign to protect that mark and then a tilt at either the Irish or Aintree

  4. Supersub says:

    Maj.

    These are the figures I was working from.

    2017 winner One For Arthur
    Conduit Mare Profile = 7-3-2-8-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.73 Triads = 12-13-18
    DP 4-0-9-4-1 (18) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.11

    Someone will hopefully correct me if they are wrong.

  5. Alesia says:

    Would it be possible to post some of the CMP/Triad figures of the possible entries for next year? In particular the probable first time runners being mentioned and especially the second season chasers? I think this would be really useful.

  6. Party Politics says:

    I’ll be watching these horses with an eye on Aintree 2019. There may be a couple more to add after the Scottish GN and Whitbread.

    Josies Orders – At first look he’s had an awful season but it’s just been too wet for him, he’s a proper good ground horse. The only time this season he had anything like his ground he ran an RPR of 150 behind Bless The Wings at Cheltenham. He’s dropped down the handicap due to the soft ground so will need a win or two to get into next years National but is more than capable given a dryish autumn.

    Urgent De Gregaine – Hopefully his French trainer will enter him at Aintree next year. He finished second in the Velka Pardubicka, the ‘Czech Grand National’ and filled the same position behind Tiger Roll at the Cheltenham Festival with an excellent RPR of 154.

    Baywing – Won the Eider at Newcastle posting an excellent RPR of 154. Possibly only a candidate next year if we get another soft/heavy ground race. The best ground he’s ever raced on is G/S beaten 35 and 26 lengths on each occasion. His trainer says “he’s a big, heavy-shouldered horse and he needs it soft.”

  7. Mike N says:

    For 2019 got these 2 so far who also did me a good turn at Cheltenham this year.

    Rathvinden 33s
    Missed Approach 40s

  8. Seven Towers says:

    I’m a little surprised more wasn’t made of Gerraghty’s ride on Anibale Fly. Nearly got brought down at the first so did well to avoid that but surely Anibale Fly nearly ran the old distance!

  9. The Stayer says:

    I don’t think Anibale Fly ran as far as Morning Assembly did a few years ago!

  10. Seven Towers says:

    Yeah, and what’s that jockey ever done since?!

  11. kj says:

    I didn’t see the milling around/ start so no idea if that was Barrys plan. Be so nice if some kind of replay of pre race too was available if anyone sees one… All I can remember is TLS team seemingly carrying out the plan of taking him back to the stables to avoid extra stress (didn’t help tho) Obviously going on the inside would of been a good idea with the distance and weight for Anibale, but wonder if with frequent bypassing of fences, they are starting to think the inside could be pretty much the same, some yrs its completely clear down the inside sometimes not, but the canal turn squash seems to be becoming a greater problem on both laps doesn’t it?, maybe they should put a ‘divider’ like that cheltenham cross country fence there? that way those on the complete outside could be instructed to stay out?? hmm I don’t know, could result in those turning infront of those landing on the inside part… soften the corner? Anyway, I believe Barry would of wanted Anibale to keep sight of the fences after his last irish run/ wipeout fall, atleast he did that well. Can’t win from there with that weight maybe? DPI second time and Clouds first time when they had top weights went up the inner didn’t they? COD when weighted second time?

  12. Seven Towers says:

    He will have more weight next year so he may be out by the wire fence in 2019!

    Following on from what Mike N said on the other page, it did get me thinking about what horses in the high 120′s/low 130′s horse could potentially shape into a GN horse. The only two that really immediately sprang to mind were the Elliott duo of Out Sam and Poormans Hill.

    There must be a reason why Elliott bought Out Sam and I did see an interview with Elliott saying he was embarrassed about not having won a race with him. I may be wrong but the owner may have something to do with Jamie Codd and his family, so plot alarm bells ring! For who knows what though?!

    If Elliott could get Poormans Hill in a National that would be an achievement in itself considering his first winning mark over fences was 88! Wasn’t stopping over 3m 4f although Out Sam probably would have won that but for being carried wide by a loose horse.

  13. Supersub says:

    I’d be amazed if Anibale Fly ran next year. He’s surely going to be aimed at the Gold Cup?

    Off his new rating he is certain to be top weight and without compression could be giving upwards of 7lbs away to the entire field.

    I’m certainly not considering him as a potential winner next year.

  14. Lescargot says:

    For those interested in the following:Bet365 came back to me and have now quoted Final Nudge and Disko for the GN- GC, there respectively up at 66/1 and 40/1. I have had ew singles and an ew double!

  15. kj says:

    The more weight he has the further they go out hoping to harness some kind of effect of course gravity and sling shot speed back in?? lol.
    I agree its likely GC is Anibales target atleast next yr (as per) and his chance may have gone, but he is an 8yr old and he can carry! he has time to have desert conditions either on courses or in his recovery from these efforts, he might comeback not top weight, comeback as a 10/ 11yr old. Some horse could do 11-6 again I am sure, its rare but the right horse can do it.
    DPI having won with 11-5, with a poor season by his standards, then came 3rd with 11-10 (beaten 14.5l) Anibale 11-8 came 4th from deep space (beaten 11.5l ) I don’t really believe in compression making too much difference, 11-10 is 11-10 over this distance,..but do people think its finished with now? when it seems most GC contenders struggle with the weight /distance combo?

  16. kj says:

    *poor season when he had 11-10 its meant to read.

  17. daniel edwards says:

    Not convinced there’s any value in backing this far out.

    For one prices will be the same cone October anyway!

    For another, how many horses will be 33s or less on weights day?10 maybe? If you take that prices about a horse now there has to be very little chance his price will be much lower on weights day, and every chance it will have gone in the other direction.

    So it’s up there as a reference come next year, here’s the current top nine on Oddschecker

    Tiger Roll 20s

    Bellshill 25s

    Pleasant company
    Blaklion
    One for Arthur
    General Principle
    Gold present
    Terrefort
    Presenting Percy

    All 33s

    40s bar

    Will be interesting to see what price they all are come February

  18. Lucky Vane2 says:

    The seemed by some an idea to automatically drop mares like Baie Des Iles and Ms Parfois from ever winning the Grand National, which is fine if you come to the conclusion of they are not good enough, but to drop them because they are female horses is ludicrous. So far the as been 13 winning mares in the race since Lottery won the first in 1839 (or The Duke in 1836, some think this was actually the first winner).

    They are :
    Charity (1841)
    Miss Mowbray (1852)
    Anatis (1860)
    Jealousy (1861)
    Emblem (1863)
    Emblematic (1864)
    Casse Tete (1872)
    Empress (1880)
    Zoedone (1883)
    Frigate (1889)
    Shannon Lass (1902)
    Sheila’s Cottage (1948)
    Nickel Coin (1951)

    However this from Paul Kealy in last week’s Weekender says not to dismiss mares automatically, I will now summarise what he wrote.

    “The pool of mares available to run in the GN is very small, and those which achieved the necessary level will have been sent to the paddock. I don’t have the data concerning mares running since 1951, but 6 have tried this century, none shorter than 25/1 and 3 of those were total no-hopers), which means they were responsible for less than 1% of the runners.

    Liberthine , who clearly did not stay, finished 5th in 2007 and is one of 3 mares to have won over the National fences (2 Tophams and a dual Foxhunters’ winner), this century, so it’s not like the course is an issue.

    Incidentally Cue Card’s mum ran in the National in 2002 Wicked Crack where she led until falling at the first. 4 years later she give birth to Cue Card.

  19. The Stayer says:

    Good post regarding mares. I for one would not put a line through a mare based on sex. Like you said very few have taken part over the years, and the only ones I could remember off the top of my head were Liberthine and Bluesea Cracker. Mares have stud value where geldings don’t so, a lot of owners retire them earlier in their career as they don’t want to risk them, especially if they have won a “black type” race.

  20. Mike N says:

    I didn’t say mares can’t win I merely asked if any had won. ;)

  21. Lucky Vane2 says:

    It wasn’t a personal attack, Mike N and if it seemed that way then I apologise unreservedly. It’s more about a train of thought. If I recall someone said she can’t win she’s a filly. A better reason came a few post later saying “The mud needs to be flying.

    Anyway I digress the was a post just before Neptune Collonges victory about excluding greys. Not one of the regulars but a late comer. I remember reading it and thought it was absurd to exclude a horse because of colour or sex, nevertheless this bias exists in a few fellow punters.

    Just to finish my post, the was some saying negative things about Tiger Roll too, but I think what was really being said was he was temperamental and if he was to win, it would have to be a “going day” for him. Which it was. Wasn’t here when Rambo ran (Rambling Minister), but my impression was the was some healthy caution about him.

  22. kedi dangalak says:

    Geraghty/Anibale Fly – There is actually a slight dog-leg on the run back from the Canal Turn to the Anchor Bridge Road, so the wide course they went may have actually saved a little ground. They will not have lost as much as it may have appeared.

    Mares – the 7yo mare Sandy Sprite was very unlucky not to win in the early 1970s, when the fences were real fences…had that happened, the stats would look very different, as very few mares have run since.

  23. Tomboy says:

    200/1 tiger roll can win 3 nationals. Thoughts?

  24. Pollyowls says:

    Ah.. Sandy Sprite… what a lovely mare – she was desperately unlucky in 1971… led over the last but broke down on the run-in and finished fifth. Only 7… don’t think she ever ran again.
    For the number of mares that have run, a lot have done well. I can think of Eyecatcher, Auntie Dot, Ebony Jane, Dubacilla and Liberthine who all finished in the first five. Can’t actually think of many more who have tried..

  25. Lucky Vane2 says:

    Tiger Roll or even One For Arthur may yet do the treble, like Rummy did in the 70′s. However Rummy had luck in running.

    Let me elaborate.

    Red Rum was the villain in 1973, beating Crisp when receiving 23 pounds and running down Crisp from 15 lengths down jumping the last, to get up close to the line.

    His win in 1974 was in my humble opinion the best, winning with top weight 12 stone (not allowed in present Nationals). He also ran a fine second to Red Candle in the Hennessy earlier in season and went on to win the Ayr National. The only horse to win both versions in same season. Incidentally in Ayr National he beat the horse who finished first past the line in the Whitbread, and I had a tape with Ginger McCain saying that he was keen on Rummy going for the Whitbread too. However in his words his wife said if you run him, I’m leaving you. So he never did.

    In 1975 L’Escargot was on better terms than when they met in 1973 & 1974 (L’Escargot finished third and second in the respective years). Red Rum also hated the ground, so to finish second was quite some doing. L’Escargot did nearly fell early on, but found a leg and the rest is history as they say.

    In 1976 a new jockey (Tommy Stack) was onboard. He had previously been connected to Rummy before Noel Le Mare had Ginger bought him for the 73 National. The is a train of thought that Tommy should have gone for home sooner and would have had the beating of Rag Trade, but Ginger backed Tommy saying he made a decision in running and shouldn’t be criticised for it.

    Then in 1977 when he won his third and historic National, I remember Boom Docker leading on first circuit, which didn’t bother me then, nor now. He refused at the seventeenth but my opinion was even without that refusal he’d have come back to his field. The one who looked dangerous to me was Andy Pandy quickly getting ten lengths lead on the field, after Boom Docker’s refusal. Andy Pandy fell at Becher’s where Rummy took up the running. Churchill Boy was closing towards the final fence but a serious mistake put paid to his challenge.

    Andy Pandy was my late dad’s bet that year.

    Red Rum was set to go in 1978 but was pulled out rather late.

  26. daniel edwards says:

    Thanks LV for that lovely little write up.

  27. Alesia says:

    Bit the bullet and subscribed LV.

    BALLYOPTIC
    Conduit Mare Profile = 4-6-2-9-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.59 Triads = 12-17-19

    BELLSHILL
    Conduit Mare Profile = 6-7-4-9-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-20-16

    BLACK CORTON
    Conduit Mare Profile = 3-2-5-7-8 Speed = 5 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.46 Triads = 10-14-20

    ELEGANT ESCAPE
    Conduit Mare Profile = 4-6-5-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.63 Triads = 15-16-20

    FOLSOM BLUE
    Conduit Mare Profile = 5-6-4-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 15-18-19

    GENERAL PRINCIPLE
    Conduit Mare Profile = 5-5-3-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.75 Triads = 13-17-18

    ISLEOFHOPENDREAMS
    Conduit Mare Profile = 5-5-5-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.80 Triads = 15-16-18

    MALL DINI
    Conduit Mare Profile = 6-5-3-10-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.87 Triads = 14-18-18

    MISSED APPROACH
    Conduit Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 17-20-21

    MONBEG NOTORIOUS
    Conduit Mare Profile = 6-2-4-11-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.72 Triads = 12-17-20

    MS PARFOIS
    Conduit Mare Profile = 4-5-3-9-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.50 Triads = 12-17-22

    OUT SAM
    Conduit Mare Profile = 1-7-3-12-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.48 Triads = 11-22-20

    PAIROFBROWNEYES
    Conduit Mare Profile = 2-8-2-9-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.52 Triads = 12-19-19

    PRESENTING PERCY
    Conduit Mare Profile = 7-3-3-7-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.71 Triads = 13-13-19

    RATHVINDEN
    Conduit Mare Profile = 4-3-4-10-7 Speed = 7 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.54 Triads = 11-17-21

    REGAL FLOW
    Conduit Mare Profile = 8-2-5-8-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-15-19

    SILSOL
    Conduit Mare Profile = 4-10-1-10-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-21-18

    SIZING TENNESSEE
    Conduit Mare Profile = 6-4-3-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.76 Triads = 13-13-17

    SQUOUATEUR
    Conduit Mare Profile = 3-6-5-9-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.57 Triads = 14-20-22

    From just a glance at these figures of possible first time runners next year the ones that look ideal to me are Elegant Escape (will only be 7) General Principle, Isleofhopendreams, Monbeg Notorious, Regal Flow and Sizing Tennessee.

    Presenting Percy is the stand out though but I would imagine is unlikely to line up.

  28. Systemsman says:

    Just re watched the Grand National even now it brings tears to the eye.
    Trainers to watch next year and keep an eye on all runners.

    Gordon Elliot – Can Tiger Roll do the double? its is possible in my opinion (but very very hard) if he is not top weight and better ground such as Good/Soft.
    Best hope at this stage for 2019 Team??? Tiger Roll + ?
    General Principle – won Irish National. OR 143, 14 runs, 3 wins.looking good.
    Folsom Blue. 4th in Irish national. will be 12 next year. 4 wins, 12 runs. OR 144.

    Willie Mullins 2nd this year and surely will want to win in 2019.

    Best hope at this stage for 2019 Team????
    Rathvinden – fairly sure he was withdrawn to keep for 2019 (would help if he lost a lb or two).
    Bellshill (OR 160 somewhat high)
    Isleofhopendreams 2nd Irish National. OR 143, wins 1. Will be 12 next year but only 4 chase runs.
    Cant see Total Recall trying again (but he can still win other races) RP comments “Mistakes, tracked leaders, hit 1st, blundered badly 3rd and lost place, towards rear when blundered badly 9th, beaten when mistake 4 out, eased after 3 out and pulled up before next (op 8/1)”

    Very surprised if we did not get a top three place in 2019 out of the above if they run.

  29. The Stayer says:

    WHISPER put up one of the best handicap performances of the season when trying to give Totall Recall a stone in the Ladbroke Trophy (Hennessy). His novice chase form at the end of last season was outstanding having gone down narrowly at Cheltenham and Aintree to Might Bite. This is seriously good form. The wheels came off the wagon in the King George and he’s not been out since so something must be troubling him, but if he comes back he would be of interest. He’s got great form at the National meeting having won the Grade 1 stayers hurdle a few times. His rating and lack of chase runs would be the concern.

  30. Supersub says:

    Terrible news about Our Duke!!

    That’s another one to remove from the potential shortlist.

  31. JJ says:

    Sad news. RIP.

  32. daniel edwards says:

    Good shout with Whisper

    With Tiger Roll now having won his last two races, and the dreaded ‘Aintree factor’ my guess is he will be weighted up with the Gold Cup calibre horses next season.

  33. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    THE STAYER,
    That would be the one thing that would put me off him,his rating is too high,he would probably be carring about
    11-10,11-8,if he was to turn up,the one i’ve gone in early on and I think CORBS mentioned it the other day is BALLYOPTIC,seems to have the right credentials and one to keep an eye on,lets see how he goes in SGN..

  34. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    Think that might be a sighter for GN 2019…..

  35. crisp73 says:

    Timeform ratings 2018 GN:

    top6 in caps,

    179 Total Recall
    177 ANIBALE FLY
    176 Shantou Flyer, Seeyouatmidnight, Ucello Conti
    175 Alpha Des Obeaux
    174 Blaklion, The Last Samuri, Vieux Lion Rouge, Gas Line Boy, Virgilio
    173 The Dutchman, Raz De Maree, Childrens List, Delusionofgrandeur
    172 Warriors Tale, Baie Des Iles, Captain Redbeard, MILANSBAR
    171 Perfect Candidate, TIGER ROLL, Saint Are, Pendra, Buywise, Lord Windermere
    170 Houblon Des Obeaux, Final Nudge, Double Ross
    169 Carlingford Lough, PLEASANT COMPANY
    168 Chase The Spud, BLESS THE WINGS
    167 I Just Know
    166 Thunder And Roses
    no rating- Valseur Lido, Tenor Nivernais, Maggio, ROAD TO RICHES

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