Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

Please add your GN thoughts post the announcements of the weights

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1,238 Responses to Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

  1. MarkB says:

    No worries Daniel. :-)

  2. majorattraction says:

    Had a look at the Topham entries…
    Captain Redbeard
    Childrens List
    Gas Line Boy
    Go Conquer
    Pleasant Company
    Shantou Flyer

    and still down for I.G.N.
    Anibale Fly
    Total Recall
    Alpha des Obeaux
    Acapella Bourgois
    Bellshill
    Rathvinden
    Tiger Roll
    A Genie in a Bottle
    Ucello Conti
    Baie des Isles
    Pleasant Company
    Childrens List

    hope I got that lot right

  3. Lescargot says:

    Tend to agree On Genie, would only consider on the day if it came up very soft, as I think he would stay.

  4. Lucky Vane2 says:

    KJ my understanding of this new rule is that even if the run was in say “May” it still counts this season, and what you want is “Lined up, refused to race”. Like King John Castle did year after coming second :P . My understanding is that if he’s lined up then he’s counted as part of the race. Of cos I’m sorry here if I’d got it wrong. [Assume make an ASS out of yoU and ME]

    This year’s Foinavon (a horse I won’t back with a free bet) is I Just Know, never been placed in a class 1 race or won a class 2 race he lacks class in my opinion, but what do I know!

    Cause Of Causes is in my opinion 50-50 as they say. Golrdon is leaving it as late as he can before making the final decision, if he wasn’t to run then expect him coming out at 48 declaration stage, for a reserve to fill that place. [Remember this is only opinion]

    Looked at the first 60 [more than should run] and these are what I think should run well and probably win.

    1 The Last Samuri
    2 Total Recall
    3 Vicente
    4 Tiger Roll
    5 Rathvinden
    6 Chase The Spud
    7 Houblon Des Obeaux
    8 Milansbar
    9 Final Nudge
    10 Vintage Clouds
    11 Bonny Kate
    12 Cogry
    13 Mystree

    Backed some already, those which I haven’t will back on Day, if they line up. Don’t expect them all to line up.

    Add to that top of what makes the final list, excluding what I would back anyway.

  5. newtrends says:

    Hi,

    Is anyone running trends for the last 3/4 years only,
    Ie to a period when the race became “easier”? The corollary is which sacred trends have fallen by the wayside?

    I regularly tune into this forum and it has been a trove of deep research. Any help / views on the above would be bery interesting, otherwise hopefully useful food for thought.

    Cheers!

  6. Seven Towers says:

    I see Kealy has added Seeyouatmidnight to his I Just Know bet.

    The Sue Smith horses seem to have begun hitting walls recently including IJK over hurdles on Saturday. Maybe they haven’t been able to get as much work in to them due to the weather. Will be interesting to see if her horses that have been out in the last couple weeks fare better on the next runs.

  7. daniel edwards says:

    Yes, I Just Know has no C2 form never mind C1 form, but that’s because he hasn’t been given the opportunity.

    (others will plenty better chances though for sure).

    Chase the Spud is a frustrating one. Midlands National win but hard to make any excuse for his form this season. Only logical conclusion is he’s bang out of form and/or badly handicapped I think.

    Open to somebody correcting me of that view though…

  8. miinnehoma says:

    The 1 yr before stats have taken a battering from 2 of the last 3 winners but I think this yrs winner should even that out.
    *************
    If Many Clouds could win with 11-09 & if Hedgehunter (in his first GN) looked cream crackered at the last fence,
    then I reckon we can’t really wright off the chances of Blaklion with 15 chases or The Last Samuri with 16 chases – all their other numbers look good, best RPR’s etc.
    ***************
    We have 21 with a Top 3 @ 28f+ (down to 10-02).

    05 Minella Rocco 11-07
    06 Blaklion
    09 The Last Samuri
    17 Perfect Candidate
    19 Cause Of Causes
    26 Vicente
    28 Rathvinden
    30 Tiger Roll
    31 Vieux Lion Rouge
    34 Chase The Spud
    36 Seeyouatmidnight
    40 Gas Line Boy
    44 Saint Are
    47 Carole’s Destrier
    50 Raz De Maree
    52 Baie Des Iles
    55 I Just Know
    60 Houblon Des Obeaux
    66 Bless The Wings
    68 Final Nudge
    69 Milansbar 10-02

  9. Lucky Vane2 says:

    Been looking at my list which includes Chase The Spud, I think the handicapper has his measure at the moment. Not really encouraging for me as I have had a bet on him. I Just Know does have class 1 form, just it’s very poor. He pulled up against Sizing Codelco (April 8th 2016 ). Racing Post Analysis says ” I Just Know was struggling to hold his place when jumping errors started to creep in and his rider wisely pulled him up. He retains potential. [Mark Brown]“

  10. miinnehoma says:

    We have 21 with a top 3 @ 28f+ (down to org No.69 on 10-02).

    05 —4P4F Minella Rocco,69 days,8 yrs, 11-07

    06 —-212 Blaklion,56,9 11-06
    09 —2243 The Last Samuri,31,10 11-04
    17 —0105 Perfect Candidate,77,11 10-13
    19 —–-0P Cause Of Causes,31,10 10-12
    26 —-2UP Vicente,32,9 10-10
    28 -112BU1 Rathvinden,32,10-09
    30 —2P51 Tiger Roll,31,8 10-09
    31 —-474 Vieux Lion Rouge,56,9 10-09
    34 —-1PP Chase The Spud,49,10 10-08
    36 –—— Seeyouatmidnight,385,10 10-08
    40 —-F13 Gas Line Boy,98,12 10-07
    44 —–PP Saint Are,31,12 10-06
    47 —-8PP Carole’s Destrier,52,10 10-05
    50 —F221 Raz De Maree,98,13 10-05
    52 —-663 Baie Des Iles,62,7 10-04
    55 —3412 I Just Know,28,8 10-04
    60 –1663P Houblon Des Obeaux,49,11 10-03
    66 —PP1F Bless The Wings,31,13 10-02
    68 —2359 Final Nudge,30,9 10-02
    69 -63U152 Milansbar,28,11 10-02

  11. kj says:

    I think the clues in the answer you’ve already given Daniel with the career graveyard that is the MN…
    LV I don’t think I asked the question, nice of you to answer tho ;) not sure who you answering but it amusingly brings up my namesake KJC and now I’m staring at IJK it a similar style, there are plenty of dark or should I say ‘in the dark’ horses for me this yr, partly thanks to recent access even a bloody photo would be helpful you punter depriving sites! You feel one of these unknown less experienced sorts is going to pop up and go close, if not almost certainly top 5 or 6. I think all fear factors have been mentioned and I really know little about Rathvindon, Virgilio, IJK, Anibale Fly, Bellshill!
    Baie maybe the one I have a grip on, even then its tough, shes possibly too slow but shes a big experienced 7yr old who should atleast get round, not sure shes in it to win it,. but thats the thing, I couldn’t say absolutely no to this group aforementioned, esp on softer going which it could well be. As usual its probably best to rely on spotting non stayers first and non formers next. Someone mentioned Shantou Flyer I thought about him for last yrs race and ruled him out, he ran well if I remember for a circuit but didn’t stay as sire suggests. Good form good in the air, but again gotta rule out because he won’t stay. Young inexperienced horses that have never gone over 3m are extremely unlikely to win 4m4f from nowhere these days would we agree? If its soft it actually looks harder to call doesn’t it?

  12. miinnehoma says:

    20/24 had a Top 3 @ 28f+
    The odd 4 out had all won a big Hcap chase in the past 12 months which would let in -
    Anibale Fly, Total Recall + others.

  13. Seven Towers says:

    The first thing I thought when I first saw that list of 28f+ winners and placers was just how many were exposed either in terms of handicapping or over the trip. Now it all depends on how you personally define exposed and unexposed but my personal take is that there are certainly 6 but potentially 8 horses that I would be happy to describe as unexposed from that list.

    Perhaps it might be helpful to those that just view rather than post what each of you believe constitutes either an exposed or an unexposed horse.

  14. Lucky Vane2 says:

    KJ sorry it was 7T I was answering.

  15. pablo says:

    In my opinion, 20 plus chase runs is pretty exposed for a GN runner – although it also depends on handicap mark and number of runs over a marathon trip and possibly breeding, ground etc. but it’s also
    relative to the strength of the field given the conditions

    Like most things in racing it’s about opinions

  16. JJ says:

    Has anybody cast their eye over Delusionofgrandeur?
    8yr old 2nd season chaser, Sue Smith horse, has been running well this season carrying some big weights, although flopped last time out in the Edinburgh National.
    Half-length 3rd in a class 1 chase this season.
    Has placed over 29f.
    Beat Vintage Clouds as a novice.
    Goes on good-soft.
    Currently 49 on the list.

  17. JJ says:

    Miinnehoma,
    Carole’s Destrier has been scratched

  18. billymag says:

    7t I if more than 15 runs then I start to look at them as exposed and id want to see them coming down the hcp back to a winning mark.

  19. Seven Towers says:

    Yes I know a bit about Delsusionsofgrandeur. His great granddam was the dam of National Hunt Chase winner Sudden Shock, so there is four mile winning form in the family. This trip off a featherweight could bring out some improvement, the weight killed him at Musselburgh. Interesting to see what Smith does with her three if they were all to get in because she only has two jockeys!

  20. JJ says:

    One to keep an eye on perhaps Seven, if not this year, then next season.

    My view on exposed horses is that a horse is exposed once the handicapper has got the measure of it, an unexposed type is simply the opposite. This is evident in its form.
    A horse could be in the grip of the handicapper yet be unexposed when trying a new trip, as he/she may improve for it.

  21. baggy352 says:

    So there’s no more declarations till 5 day? And so trainers seemingly have to make a decision whether to go for the national or chance it. What do thunder and roses and road to riches do?

    Could go down as far as vintage clouds

  22. miinnehoma says:

    Forgot to leave out C.D. from above lists.
    47 —-8PP Carole’s Destrier,52,10 10-05
    *************************
    These 13 races cover the last 24 GN winners -

    1; x Top 3 Grand National.
    7; x Top 3 Welsh National.
    4; x Top 2 Irish National.
    1; x Top 2 Scottish National.
    1; x Top 2 Midland National.
    1; x Top 2 Haydock GNT 28f.
    2; x Top 2 Servo 28f.
    2; x Top 2 Hennessy.
    1; x 1st Ulster National 28f.
    1; x 1st Kerry National 24f.
    1; x 1st Eider 33f.
    1; x 1st Kim Muir 26f.
    1; x 1st Warwick GNT 29f.
    ************

    At this stage we have 13 that match -

    06, ——212 Blaklion,56———————–2nd Hay gnt
    09, —–-2243 The last samuri,31 —2nd GN
    13, —111F Total Recall,29——-1st Hennessy
    19, ——-0P Cause Of Causes,31 —1st Kim muir
    26, ——2UP Vicente, 32———————–1st Scottish nat
    31, ——–474 Vieux Lion Rouge,56—1st Hay gnt
    34, —-1PP Chase The Spud, 49—-1st Midlands GN
    44, ——-PP Saint Are, 31———–———2nd GN
    50, —–F221 Raz De Maree,98 ——–—–1st Welsh nat
    60, –1663P Houblon Des Obeaux,49-3rd Welsh nat
    66, ––PP1F Bless The Wings,31 ——-2nd Irish nat
    68, —2359 Final Nudge, 30——-3rd Welsh Nat
    69, -63U152 Milansbar,28 ———2nd Midlands GN

    We are overdue one from the Welsh Nat (7/24), Mon Mome the last one.

    Might have to add 1st Munster National next year ?

  23. rough and tumble says:

    Miinnehoma, and add to that, Thunder and Roses, when he sneaks in at number 40!!

  24. moari says:

    Twelve day gap between Irish and grand national.Some trainers may opt to leave their horses in at aintree if they don’t complete at fairy house.

  25. daniel edwards says:

    FINAL NUDGE
    MILANSBAR

    … Also make it from the current top 50 on to my list of horses that meet my 4 main stats.

    Has anybody got any trainer quotes regarding Final Nudge and his ground preference?

    Having previously had him down as a soft ground horse, looking closely his 6th in that hot novice chase at Ayr last season wasn’t that bad at all (12l down) and it doesn’t sound to me like he hated the ground. It was good that day too whereas it’s more likely to be good to soft at Aintree.

  26. baggy352 says:

    Accuweather seems to have forecast of rain, dry, rain in the 3 weeks leading up but only spatterings. Anyone know what the ground is like at the moment?

    Bryony has been confirmed for milansbar if he gets in

  27. Mike N says:

    Weather forecasts this far out are useless.
    Even Aintree’s clerk of the course says so.

  28. daniel edwards says:

    I’d agree

    If we had heavy ground 10 days before and then wind and sun, they’d be watering by the following Saturday anyway!

  29. admin says:

    Please bring this thread to a close, new thread now open.

  30. Systemsman says:

    My final list (subject to withdrawals).

    Best single weight adjusted RPR since April 1st
    Highest first.
    April // .(all others form Sept 1st).
    A = 1/2/3 at 27.5f or more
    B = won 26/27f C1 chase

    Total Recall 179 B
    Blaklion 178 A
    Vincente 177 A
    Perfect Candidate 176 A
    The Dutchman 175 (but best TS only 119)
    Anibale Fly 174
    Raz De Maree 174 (but aged 13) A
    Cause of Causes 173 A
    Go Conquer172
    Seeyouatmidnight 171 A
    Alpha Des Obeaux 171
    Gold Present 170
    Shantou Flyer 170
    Regal Encore 170
    Uncello Conti 168
    Bellshill 167
    Rathvindon 167 A
    The Last Samuri 166 A

    Any of the above could win.

    So my top 10 are (if i have to make a choice):

    Total Recall 179 B
    Blaklion 178 A
    Vincente 177 A
    Perfect Candidate 176 A
    Anibale Fly 174
    Cause of Causes 173 A
    Seeyouatmidnight 171 A
    Bellshill 167
    Rathvindon 167 A
    The Last Samuri 166 A

    Reserves:
    From the first list from highest score.

    I will post last five years GN figures soon.

    And Tiger Roll the teams current NO 1 you might ask. best since April 1st is 165 so cant be discounted but other look better (best TS this season is 99 which is low).

  31. Systemsman says:

    Should point out that Cause of Causes 173 was last April in GN and his best since Sept is 124! so probably the weakest in the ten

  32. Systemsman says:

    When i get time i will post all those who scored 165 to 166 who also have a chance and cant be discounted.

    No the explanation.
    This is the w eight adjusted (adjusted to 12 stone) best RPR from April 1st for the last five/six years (also a bit of info on TS)
    Key: April // After September 1st

    2017 173
    Best TS GN season (from Sept 1st) was 129 / career best TS was 129 (before winning GN)

    2016 174 // 165
    TS 109 (GN season) / 109 (career best prior to GN win)

    2015 170
    TS 145 – 145

    2014 166
    TS 111(Aug) – 121

    2013

    2012

  33. Systemsman says:

    When i get time i will post all those who scored 165 to 166 who also have a chance and cant be discounted.

    Now the explanation.
    This is the w eight adjusted (adjusted to 12 stone) best RPR from April 1st for the last five/six years (also a bit of info on TS)
    Key: April // After September 1st

    2017 173
    Best TS GN season (from Sept 1st) was 129 / career best TS was 129 (before winning GN)

    2016 174 // 165
    TS 109 (GN season) / 109 (career best prior to GN win)

    2015 170
    TS 145 – 145

    2014 166
    TS 111(Aug) – 121

    2013 165 //
    TS 112 – 131

    2012 180
    TS 137 – 173

    So adjusted RPR 165 from April 1st is 6/6
    Adjusted RPR of 170 or more from April 1st is 3/3 and 4/6
    TS minimum from Sept 1st is 109 6/6
    TS career best minimum is 109 6/6. 121 is 5/6. 129 is 4/6.

    GN winners minimum standards
    So we are looking for a GN winner with at least a weight adjusted figure of 165 or more with a TS figure from Sept 1st of 109 or more.

  34. Systemsman says:

    Looking at the list and a few other earlier years I think we have a trend for better class horses with better form winning the GN now. Its why i would be looking for an weight adjusted PRR of probably 170 or more or at worse 167 or more but the minimum has to be 165.

  35. Systemsman says:

    The lowest weight adjusted best RPR from April 1st in the last ten years was:

    2008 Comply or Die 157
    2011 Ballabriggs 161

    There has been a general trend upwards (not a straight line but an clear overall trend to higher RPR’s achieved since April 1st)

  36. Systemsman says:

    having had a hour or two to review my top 10 list i am now replacing Cause of Causes who has only a Ts rating this seson of 55 (minimum 109 is a 6/6 trend) and has achieved almost nothing this season with Tiger Roll who has done well this and last season.

    Sytemsman current top 10 with weight adjusyed RPR figures.
    Total Recall 179 B
    Blaklion 178 A
    Vincente 177 A
    Perfect Candidate 176 A
    Anibale Fly 174
    Seeyouatmidnight 171 A
    Bellshill 167
    Rathvindon 167 A
    The Last Samuri 166 A
    Tiger Roll 165 A

    We have 6 from the first 7 in the betting market as on Racing Post GN card and nine from the first 12 in the market. I would be very surprised indeed in the GN winner 2018 was not in that nine (Prefect Candidate is my long shot – got 66/1 today).

    Not sure there is much more to do other than wait for some to be sure they are in the GN and not another race.

    Anyone like my list now???. Its pure coincidence it supports the market a the figures are genuine and speak for themselves. The bookies are getting better at sizing the GN up due to it being a race for better runners now. I guess even now around every 10/12 years we will still get s surprise but happy to get the odd one in ten wrong!!

  37. Systemsman says:

    Oh dear made a mistake left Regal Encore out of my list.

    Sytemsman current top 10 + reserve with weight adjusted RPR figures.

    Total Recall 179 B
    Blaklion 178 A
    Vincente 177 A
    Perfect Candidate 176 A
    Anibale Fly 174
    Seeyouatmidnight 171 A
    Bellshill 167
    Rathvindon 167 A
    The Last Samuri 166 A
    Tiger Roll 165 A

    Reserve: Regal Encore 170 (only won C1 24f)

  38. Mike N says:

    With doubts about my Cause of Causes 33s pick I’ve backed The Dutchman 33s as a sub in case he don’t make it.
    Colin Tizzard said some interesting things about him this week so he’s just there in case.

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