Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

Please add your GN thoughts post the announcements of the weights

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1,156 Responses to Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

  1. Mike N says:

    Gold Present after Cheltenham will have only had 8 chase runs by the way.

  2. JJ says:

    Systemsman, Tomboy,
    Perfect Candidate had a poor prep last year according to his trainer, had a knock in the build up, and also said that the 6lb he got raised for winning at Exeter didn’t help.
    Even more poignant though are his trainer’s comments about him running in small fields… suits him and he is able to dictate….something he obviously couldn’t do in the GN. And if you look at his record in small vs larger fields, this is certainly true.

  3. Lucky Vane2 says:

    ESB says:
    March 5, 2018 at 3:55 pm
    The Premier Chase is back on at Kelso on Sunday so, weather willing, Seeyouatmidnight won’t need to get down to Cheltenham after all…..

    SYAM doesn’t have an entry for Kelso this Sunday, Cheltenham is his only race before National. The plan may have been go straight to the National, but this new rule may have made then rethink.

    Just like SA trainer was going to use a hunter chaser on route to National, now using a veteran’s race for same purpose.

  4. Lucky Vane2 says:

    SA is entered in Cross Country race and Midlands National. Thought I read trainer was thinking about a veteran’s race.

    P.S. Is a veteran’s race same as a hunter chaser or are they different?

  5. JJ says:

    Veterans races are just normal races but horses have to be over a certain age to enter.
    Hunter’s chases are only open to horses that have been hunted with during the season, and amateur jockeys only.

  6. JJ says:

    Veterans races may be set by number of career runs also, but not too sure on that one.

  7. Seven Towers says:

    Had a little revamp of my scoring system to take into account a 17/19 stat that still seems a little unconsidered (it’s not my stat so can’t lay claim to it but someone did post it last year for the first time when it was an 8/8 (now 9/9). Apologies I cannot remember who). I think when a trend like that begins to build, it probably is worth taking note of. So if they don’t meet the trend I’m deducting 10 points, as it does seem quite significant, the trend being having had 10 runs during this season and last. Even though Silver Birch and Comply Or Die didn’t meet this, they both still scored over 72.5+. The horses that have fallen off this list are The Last Samuri, Carole’s Destrier and Vieux Lion Rouge.

    That leaves the following horses currently scoring enough prior to the Festival

    Horse Score

    Blaklion 81.5 (good, good to soft)
    Tiger Roll 77.5 (good, good to soft)
    Houblon Des Obeaux 77.5 (soft)
    Cause Of Causes 75 (good, good to soft)
    Chase The Spud 75 (soft)
    Buywise 75 (good, good to soft)
    Milansbar 75 (soft)
    Regal Encore 72.5 (good, good to soft)
    Vicente 72.5 (good, good to soft)
    Baie Des Iles 72.5 (good to soft, soft)
    As De Mee 72.5 (good, good to soft)
    Bless The Wings 72.5 (good, good to soft)

  8. daniel edwards says:

    Interesting stat, missed that one

  9. majorattraction says:

    Hi LV2, according to ‘The Scotsman’ the entries for the SYAM Kelso race (re-opened) were due on Tuesday and the decs announced this Friday, have you seen a list of decs somewhere?

  10. NTS says:

    Lucky Vane2
    Might be wrong but the reason no entry shown for SYAM is that the race he was aiming for the Premier Chase has been reopened, so RP not showing entries for that race against each horse. Blaklion was also originally entered for the race but again he is not shown as an entry, at the first closing 10 entrants so hoping it will become clear later this week.

  11. NTS says:

    Sorry majorattraction sent my response to Lucy Vane2 before refreshing!

  12. NTS says:

    Lucky not Lucy apologies!!!!

  13. Lucky Vane2 says:

    Thanks JJ for the clarification between Hunter Chases and Veteran Chases.

    Majorattraction & NTS I was using Racing Post to see if he was declared.

  14. Kevski111 says:

    Perfect Candidate, Seeyouatmidnight, American, I just know and Virgilio all down to run at Kelso Sunday. Actually just looked at Virgilio, is it beyond the realms of possibility that this one could spring a surprise? Certainly likes the Aintree fences, and is on a racing mark for what he has achieved, if it lines up at Kelso I shall take some of the 100/1 on offer for the big one as an outside chance because if it wins at Kelso then who knows!

  15. daniel edwards says:


    I mentioned him a little while ago as being one would might (big might) be the best handicapped horse in the race. After the weekend we’ll have an idea

    By the way, you’d be better to back him for the win at Kelso then use any winnings to back him at a smaller price

    For instance:

    5 quid now at 100 returns 500

    5 quid now for the weekend at, what, 5s returns 25 profit. Then back him at 25s with your 25 quid to return 625 (and you’d have your original stake back and he could be bigger than 25s for the GN even if he won…. And bigger than 5s at the weekend)

  16. JJ says:

    Virgilio has only raced over the Mildmay course Kevski, so has not tackled the GN fences as yet, though granted he does have a very good record at the track.
    His stand out piece of form to me is his 20l 3rd to Might Bite. If that had been a handicap he would have been getting 17lb. That 3rd will look even better if Might Bite wins the gold cup.

  17. kj says:

    Looked at Virgilio myself when you mentioned him before Daniel, not beyond realms, feels quite a few like that this yr having said that, but aintree form points! How does course form hold up as opposed to actual GN course form? taken it on faith I feel, but thats what you hear, ANY course form important, but how true is it?
    Regal Encore agree Daniel he would seem to want 5miles, whoever posted not one for over 3m or so, quite the opposite, seems a stalker, whether he’s got enough finishing gears and indeed lung capacity for a tiny horse who knows. (back to old keyboard for now) hope this posts I dithered and its way past lunchtime lul.

  18. Kevski111 says:

    Sorry Daniel didn’t know you had already flagged it up. 50% strike rate at the course, class 2 winner over both obstacles.. question is stamina of course but what a price for a place if goes to post.

  19. JJ says:

    The fences are the biggest difference, and the mildmay track is a bit sharper than the national course if I’m not mistaken. Not as strong as ‘actual’ course form, but left handed, flat, general ground conditions, sights/sounds/smells all positives though.

  20. daniel edwards says:

    Don’t apologise kevski. I’m not suggesting because somebody has mentioned a horse before nobody could mention it again!!

    We wouldn’t get far then would we!?


  21. Corbiere says:

    GN horses TAKEN OUT OF Ultima at 6 days entry stage.
    Mala Beach
    Alpha Des Obeaux
    Go Conquer
    Final Nudge

  22. Lucky Vane2 says:

    Seeyouatmidnight now holds an entry for the Kelso race, another one needing a chase outing is Cause Of Causes so very likely to head for the festival.

  23. Corbiere says:

    He’s in the X Country at Chelts Lucky.

  24. Seven Towers says:

    Have added number 4 to the list and have joined some of you with Seeyouatmidnight @ 25/1 NRNB and a little bit of 33/1 without NRNB as 25′s is the best you can get with the NRNB firms now. I’d kick myself if a Sandy horse won and I wasn’t on and best to get on now I reckon just in case he runs well. If he doesn’t run well then maybe he will keep him for Ayr and not bother with the GN this year as he is somewhat of a pet. I back almost everything else he sends out blind anyway. I did note that both times he has been able to run with less than 11st on his back, he won albeit both were a long, long time ago.

  25. JJ says:

    It really surprised me that Seeyouatmidnight finished so high up in the last round of voting. I get his credentials, but with just 5 weeks before the GN, how anyone can back a horse that has been sidelined with injury and hasn’t seen a fence for 14 months, is beyond me.

  26. Mike N says:

    Addition to that JJ is that backers believe there will be Scottish trained winners 2 years in a row.

  27. Mike N says:

    Plus there’s the bounce factor as well after a potentially good run.

  28. daniel edwards says:

    Each to their own of course but at 33s I’ve got no interest in backing him at the minute

    Surely better to back him at 20s or even 16s with a good run than have a slip at 33s on the day that is worth nothing?

  29. rough and tumble says:

    Also, SYAM connections need to hope Kelso doesn’t get the snow that’s just fallen in Yorkshire overnight. Four inches and counting here in Leeds!

  30. Systemsman says:

    Looking at those who have the best weight adjusted (adjusted to 12 stone) RPR since April 1st at 3 miles or more i make it.

    1. Total Recall 179
    1. Vincente 177
    3. The Last Samuri 178
    3. Blaklion 178
    5. Prefect Candidate 176
    5. Regal Encore 170
    5. Go Conquer 172
    8. Gold Present 170
    All of the above also pass the TS test of 97 minimum this season and a career best of 128 minimum (4/5).

    We then get:

    Raz De Maree 172 aged 13 so i am going to discount.
    Cause Of Causes 173 – needs a TS of 97 this season (currently 55)
    Rock The Kabish 172 – needs a TS of 97 this season (currently 95)
    The Dutchman 175 – needs a career best TS of 128 (currently 115)

    There are a few on top weights we need to see if they run such as:
    Minella Rocco 164 (TS OK)
    Outlander 172 (TS OK)
    Definitly Red 180 (TS OK).

    If your selection is not in the list i can tell you why if you give me a name.
    The Team have Tiger Roll as 2nd and Final Nudge as 4th

    Tiger Roll 155 (since April 1st). TS career best 126. All too low.
    Final Nudge 165 (TS OK) – may not get in on 10.02 – for longer list.

  31. Systemsman says:

    Interesting of my top 8 using weight adjusted RPR’s 7 are in the current teams top 17 – only Perfect Candidate is missing.

  32. Mike N says:

    now that I’ve seen the votes 6 non nap votes isn’t that large for SYAM. I just got the impression from JJ comments SYAM was top 3 or something without looking ;)
    There’s 5 horses that are clear the rest is just odds and sods.

  33. JJ says:

    Still top 6 though Mike…

  34. daniel edwards says:

    I really really wish they were running Go Conquer in something like the Kim Muir at Cheltenham

    I want to see him either stay beyond 3 miles or categorically not.

    As it stands I think he’s going to have to be a saver bet for me. No more, but also no less!

  35. daniel edwards says:

    On the ‘better take the price now in case he runs well’ this past 6 weeks alone I’ve seen Betfair prices plummet on:

    Silsol (fell at the first)
    Missed Approach (twice he failed to get the win he needed to even qualify)
    The Dutchman (pulled up as he bled)

    Probably more that don’t come to mind right now.

    In none of those cases has going for the big price been worth it. And in one of them it’s backfired and you’re left with a worthless bet you can’t lay off as the price has gone for a walk

  36. JJ says:

    Regal Encore would be an exception Daniel.
    And to be fair, The Dutchman was being backed the week the weights were published as he was probably a bit overpriced in some people’s eyes, not necessarily in case he ran well next time out. Having said that, you can still get 50s about him.
    Can see your point though.

  37. daniel edwards says:

    Regal Encore you’re right

    He’s now settled at 40s on the exchanges

    Can’t be sure what price he was immediately before the run but I know I had backed him at 55 and then again when he went to 70

    Good example of the other point I make along these lines:

    Have a tener on him at 70s’ just in case’. Win 700 if he wins the GN.

    Have a tener on him for the race itself at 6s, get 70 back……then stick that 70 on him at 40s after the win, win 2800 if he wins the GN

    (or cash in half the winnings from the initial race, have 35 at 40s and get 1400 back if he wins the GN….. Even if he fell to 20s you’d still be no worse off)

  38. JJ says:

    He was pretty much 66/1 across the board before his win, now he’s pretty much 33/1 across the board.
    I wanted to see him back up that Hennessey run and show form post-weights before making my mind up. So I’m on at 33s now.
    Completely understand your logic, and it’s a good approach to take.
    I suppose the only negative would be if you backed a horse to win and it lost by a head, the price may still come in and you’ll have missed the boat.

  39. daniel edwards says:

    Quite right you are with that.

    Let’s make a list of how often that happens this year….

    And a list of how many times the price doesn’t change or goes out


    I’m labouring my point, I know ;)

  40. JJ says:

    I should have inserted ‘potential’ before ‘negative’ and emphasised the ‘may’ there

  41. Seven Towers says:

    New Nationals

    2013 (Going: GOOD TO SOFT) 9m 12s

    Auroras Encore (UK trained)
    Cappa Bleu (UK trained)
    Teaforthree (UK trained)
    Oscar Time (IRE trained)

    2014 (Going: GOOD TO SOFT) 9m 10s

    Pineau De Re (UK trained)
    Balthazar King (UK trained)
    Double Seven (IRE trained)
    Alvarado (UK trained)

    2015 (Going: GOOD TO SOFT) 8m 56s

    Many Clouds (UK trained)
    Saint Are (UK trained)
    Monbeg Dude (UK trained)
    Alvarado (UK trained)

    2016 (SOFT) 9m 29s

    Rule The World (IRE trained)
    The Last Samuri (UK trained)
    Vics Canvas (IRE trained)
    Gilgamboa (IRE trained)

    2017 (GOOD TO SOFT) 9m 03s

    One For Arthur (UK trained)
    Cause Of Causes (IRE trained)
    Saint Are (UK trained)
    Blaklion (UK trained)

    Make of that what you will but it suggests the slower the ground the better the Irish horses perform.

  42. Seven Towers says:

    Always thought the Irish on bad ground held the key. Not many Irish come over for the Welsh and Scottish Nationals but the ones that do have developed a much better record in the Welsh version than they have in the Scottish. Goonyella coming closest at Ayr but they do fare much better at Chepstow by and large, when the mud is flying.

  43. Corbiere says:

    Phil Smith says ew double
    Definitly Red – Gold Cup
    Definitly Red – Grand National

  44. Systemsman says:

    Good and interesting post Seven Towers.

    I would not rule out Definitly Red – he has the form and RPR’s and TS ratings but on top weight on 11.12?? The record doe snot look good until a new top weight wins again. Probably would only back if NOT top weight.

    Higher weights that have won GN (not necessarily top weight).
    2015 11.09 Many Clouds
    1977 11.08 Red Rum
    1974 12.00 Red Rum
    1937 11.13 Royal Mail

  45. Systemsman says:

    Trends / stats / systems.

    This year we seem to have only a few people posting their GN score list and method but i guess 100′s are looking in!!!! Well if you have any, lets have them, as we can all learn from each other. The point for me was to uncover a possible GN winner in a small list of possible runners as soon as possible to get say 25/1 or better when there are 100 + possible runners. Its seems many want to play it safe now and only post the night before or even worse after the race saying something like (you know what i mean) ” I didn’t post it up but had a last minute wager on the winner and won xxx thounds and am now off to Australia for a months holiday!! (a slight exaggeration but still somewhat true).

    OK moan over – but i am really interested in any new ideas. stats / trends anyone may have however odd or different. Come on team lets have your best shot!

  46. Systemsman says:

    My eight against the field (90 still left on the Racing Post GN card) which i think is a reasonable combination of 3m+ progressives, 27,5f tried and tested and all doing well since April 1st (and OK TS score)

    What i need now is to make up a list of eleven. I need three further runners who:

    Have come 1/2/3 at 27.5f or over.
    Have a good adjusted RPR score since April 1st
    Have a minimum TS score of 97 this season.
    Not in my list of seven below.
    Will not be top weight.

    So team this is the task – give me your best selection to add to my team (i need three more) using the above criteria. Now it would be easy to put up a suggestion list but it is more important for me to know what the team thinks at this stage.

    My current list of eight.
    1. Total Recall 179
    1. Vincente 177
    3. The Last Samuri 178
    3. Blaklion 178
    5. Prefect Candidate 176
    5. Regal Encore 170
    5. Go Conquer 172
    8. Gold Present 170

  47. Patsy2 says:

    I’m going to put I Just Know forward, ok so it doesn’t quite fill your criteria, but as a long shot I think he’s worth taking a chance on.
    Negatives, no C1 win, low TS this year, and rpr could do with being a point higher.
    Positives, jumps well, looks as honest as the day is long and trained by someone who knows how to ready one. Over 2m 4f at Carlisle, he finished 34l behind Waiting Patiently, so what? you might say, well he was within 3/4length of Baywing, now to me that doesn’t seem so bad, as 2m4f would be too sharp for both IJK and Baywing, of course Baywing went on to win the Eider.
    Have I put my money here my mouth is yes got a small investment at150/1 ew

  48. Tomboy says:

    systemsman – one thought I had was to take each heavy GN stats out of the equation. I recall last year someone mentioned about 20% of nationals are heavy. Potentially trends for heavy GN winners are being over valued when applied to the average g/s national and undervalued when it’s a heavy GN?

  49. Lucky Vane2 says:

    My main concern about Definitly Red was they was skipping the National in favour of the Bowl. I think the media are suggesting the National. I also think DR would struggle in a large field, top weight or no top weight.

    Anyway Cheltenham’s round the corner so thought I’d prepay for Timeform and out of curiosity looked at their figures for National (at present weights)

    Top 10 are

    Gold Present 181+ (kr)
    Bellshill 181 (kj) & Seeyouatmidinight 181 (2kx)
    Regal Encore 180 (4)
    Total Recall 179p (K)
    Pendra 179 (kj) & Vieux Lion Rouge 179 (2)
    Definitly Red 178 (jR), Bless The Wings 178 (4) Acapella Bourgeois (f) & Outlander 178 (2)

    The are actually 11 as I didn’t want to miss any on same ratings. Those with a symbol after their rating get a higher position in the order.

    the letters and numbers in the brackets refer to timeform’s in play symbols

    1 = led/ dispute led
    2= prominent/close up
    3= mid division
    4= towards rear

    s or S slowly away or very slowy away
    k or K travelled comfortably or travelled notably strongly
    o or O outpaced or badly outpaced
    r or R responded to pressure or responded to pressure very well
    i or I idled or markly
    f or F found less than seemed likely or found nothing
    p or P pulled hard or pulled very hard
    l or L raced lazily or raced very lazily
    $ or $$ signs of temperament or marked reluctance
    j or J jumped well or jumped very well
    x or X made mistakes or made numerous mistakes

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