Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

Please add your GN thoughts post the announcements of the weights

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410 Responses to Grand National 2018 – Weights Revealed

  1. Corbiere says:

    Well guys/girls back in after going out at lunchtime. Boy did my post earlier stir up a lot of posts.
    Personally I am a firm believer in the saying “It’s good to talk”
    If we get into discussion’s with each other about a subject all views are aired and opinions will be different, but I still believe by discussing a subject like “Ground” and it’s significance helps all on here.
    So glad I posted earlier.
    All on here who are working hard to produce lists of likely Winners, are to be praised, as this is what makes this blog so informative.
    Personally I agree with those of you who posted saying they are waiting until last minute to back horses they perceive as Soft/Heavy specialists, as that is an unlikely scenario, and whilst good prices can be obtained early, often the said party decides nearer the time that said horse is unlikely to Win/Place in Good/Soft if that’s what ground turns out to be.
    So I am of the opinion any horse who appears to have a preference for Soft/ Heavy or even Good/Firm or Firm ground I will be keeping powder dry on them until Grand National Meeting takes place.
    Good debate all !

  2. Corbiere says:

    Off out again, happy posting. Catch up tomorrow.

  3. Systemsman says:

    Now looking at some basic TS (speed) data to shorten down my my longer list of 23 to a safer shorter list as no one wants to back all 23 even if the winner is in there (and i do think it is).

    Speed:
    A TS rating this season of 97 minimum (10/10 trend). I will call this T1 (a must have)
    A TS rating any time in career of 128 (8/10 rating. I will call this T2) or at least 113 (9/10 rating. I will call this T3)

    Hoping to show weighted adjusted RPR’s (adjusted to 12stone) + one of two other careful stats are the way to go to finding the winner.

    If a runner has not got a TS rating of 97 this year (which is low) what chance has it really got? I would be happy to a a winning short list 80% of the time (8 out of 10 years)!!!

    Will report as soon as i can

  4. Systemsman says:

    Speed:
    TS rating – some interesting results turning up that confirm many of my short list but condemns others.

    Example: did you know Cause Of Causes has a best TS rating this season so far of only 55 (and that a minimum rating of 97 is a 10/10 trend). Will need better TS rating for sure this season.

  5. miinnehoma says:

    Good stuff LV and Systems, fair dinkum.
    ***************
    MC re -235 Final Nudge, 9 yrs old, 10-02

    crisp73 says:
    March 2, 2017 at 4:15 pm
    Kayf Tara- On paper it does look as though it could just be a matter a time before a 32f+ h’cap comes his way. And I suppose that is what he needs, a ‘well handicapped’ offspring. KT posted an RPR127 over 14f on the track which sits very well when looking at this jumping generation’s (current 7-12yrolds) sires and sires of recent 32f+ h’cap winners.
    His dosage looks just as good if not more favourable than that of some sires in producing a GN winner going on what we’ve seen over the past few years.
    ************
    His biggest chase win is only a C3 10k Hcap but this season he’s had a hd 2nd in a C1 34k Hcap & was 3rd in the Welsh Nat 85k.
    Mighty weight (10-02) if he gets in but it might be a year too early.

  6. rough and tumble says:

    My long short list, like many people on here, is still way too long. Who is your lay this year? Of the horses that have been suggested as a possible winner, who in your opinion is not going to win? I could do to get my long short list down so I can get betting!

  7. Systemsman says:

    Final Nudge.

    Best weight adjusted RPR so far at 27.5 f chase or over (or a C! chase win at 26f /27f if not run further) is 152 which is too low. 9/10 have a weight adjusted RPR best score of 157 or more (a minimum of 165 is a 5/6 trend).
    Has a best TS score of 132 which was achieved this season which is OK but on the lowish side.
    He may not get in.

    I would not dismiss him but would have to be a on a much longer list now (say top 35).

  8. daniel edwards says:

    My lay(s)

    Blaklion
    Ucello Conti
    Last Samuri
    Raz da maree
    Cause of Causes

    Can’t decide which yet!!

  9. JJ says:

    Out of the top 20 from last vote, my black list:

    Tiger Roll
    Cause of Causes
    The Last Samuri
    Final Nudge
    Raz De Mee
    Seeyouatmidnight
    Rock the Kasbah
    Gold Present
    Ucello Conti
    Abolitionist
    Carole’s Destrier (was keen until yesterday!)
    As De Mee

  10. mandie says:

    total recall. this years Rambo imo

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