We are into the last few days before the 2018 Grand National.
Please add your thoughts, tip and trends to this page
January 1, 2018 at 12:25 pm
Xmas vote -
Tiger Roll 11 pts 1 nap 6 votes
Total Recall 8 pts 2 nap 3 votes
Present Man 5 pts 1 nap 2 votes
January 31, 2018 at 1:45 pm
TABLE 1 -
48 points TIGER ROLL (13 VOTES 3 NAPS)
39 points TOTAL RECALL (8 VOTES 4 NAPS)
26 points FINAL NUDGE (6 VOTES 3 NAPS)
February 19, 2018 at 8:02 am
Table 2 -
98 points Total Recall (22 Votes, 9 Naps)
60 points Tiger Roll (17 Votes, 1 Nap)
57 points Cause Of Causes (12 Votes, 4 Naps)
March 5, 2018 at 9:12 am
Table 3 -
86 points Total Recall 10 naps, 19 votes
56 points Tiger Roll 2 naps, 14 votes
52 points Cause Of Causes 3 naps, 11 votes
March 26, 2018 at 11:12 am
Table 4 -
100 points Tiger Roll 21 votes 6 naps
77 points Total Recall 17 votes 7 naps
53 points Regal Encore 14 votes
April 13, 2018 at 11:38 pm
Table 5 -
188 pts Tiger Roll 40 votes 16 Naps
129 pts Milansbar 36 votes 7 Naps
94 pts Final Nudge 24 votes 5 Naps
87 pts Regal Encore 24 votes 2 Naps
87 pts Seeyouatmidnight 22 votes 3 Naps
78 pts Total Recall 17 votes 6 Naps
71 pts Anibale Fly 17 votes 4 Naps
off we go. backed missed approach at 50′s using skybet new customer £40 free bets. luvley jublee
Looking forward to next year I have concluded that these are the key things to look for when trying to pinpoint next year’s winner. I am only using the last six years since the modifications were made.
1) 6/6 – At least 3 prep runs.
2) 6/6 – Age 8-11.
3) 6/6 – Placed in a chase contested by at least 18 runners.
4) 6/6 – RPR at least 5lbs higher than official GN mark.
5) 6/6 – Top 3 finish in a Class 1 chase over 27f+
6) 5/6 – 3m chase win (missed by RTW but this was a freak as far as I’m concerned)
7) 6/6 – Ran within last 91 days
8) 5/6 – Second season chaser (missed by AE – so that’s now five in a row)
9) 6/6 – At least 10 chase starts (this is vulnerable due to above stat I feel)
10) 6/6 – CMP stamina figure 13-16
11) 6/6 – CMP speed figure 6-10
Applying these to next year’s field and dismissing anything that fails two or more of the above should give us a very short list from which to work and hopefully will hit the winner.
In fact, just applying stats 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8 gave us a shortlist of Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly and Final Nudge in this year’s race (see my post from 26 March @1.04pm).
Fingers crossed there are some solid trends starting to emerge from this modified National that we will be able to apply with confidence going forward as the transitional years became very frustrating for us trends followers.
Yes mandie, I have done the same. Smaller stakes for me though! Going to be little and often bets for the next 52 weeks!
Early 2019 picks
Missed Approach @ 50/1
Ms Parfois @ 40/1
Rathvinden @ 33/1
I see Pairofbrowneyes has been entered for the Punchestown Gold Cup which suggests connections rate him a fair bit higher than his current mark.
Before I ditch paper, just found Racing & Football Outlook for Feb 20-26th with the headline
“National win a noble ambition”
Nick Watts in his ANTE-POST column gave Noble Endeavour, Pleasant Company and Genie In A Bottle
Re. Pleasant Company he said “The Willie Mullins 10 year old disappointed in the Thyestes last time out, but the ground was exceedingly testing and I think he’s just had enough of that. Although he won the Bobbyjo Chase last season, it was only yielding for his previous victory at the Punchestown Festival when beating Regal Encoreand that is more like his conditions. He was running a tremendous race last season until making a bad mistake at Valentine’s second time and he was sent off that day at 11/1 , he’s 40/1 now “.
You may be right about the stable view of Pairofbrowneyes but Mullins is still fighting (probably a losing battle) for the trainers championship, so he will be throwing everything he can at Punchestown.
Assuming there’s some cut in the ground I’d make a case for FOLSOM BLUE at Ayr this weekend.
Interesting this would be only the third time he’s raced outside Ireland, one of the others being in this same race in 2016.
He was 137 that day and ran well before being brought down.
That was on the back of his fourth in the Irish National off 134.
Given he was an unlucky second in the Irish this year off 142 he’s undoubtedly a better horse now than in 2016, so I’d be expecting a big run here.
Sorry, unlucky fourth of course I meant
I would recommend using the general racing tips page for Scottish national thoughts until admin sort it out.
Interesting piece on the RP about the BHA looking at the reserves system.
I think in Ireland the system does allow for on-the-day reserves to get a run in the big handicaps so it could work here. At someone pointed out earlier, the current system meant that we had 38 go to post in a race which is massively oversubscribed, and that should not be the case.
Daniel quite agree about Folsom Blue I backed him on Saturday after GN .
Think he’s got a great chance, backed him in Irish GN and he looked like he would have won if not for the appaling interference he suffered at the last, almost brought to a standstill, then recovered and only lost by a couple of lengths.
Well done all who backed Tiger Roll, in the end a 10/1 joint second favourite. But he was fancied on here as miinnehomma pointed out since the New Year, either top or second top of our polls when he was a much more tastier 50/1. I think we can all “pat ourselves on the back”. However it was nearly a different story with Pleasant Company who went unconsidered in the final round.
No idea personally for next year, but plenty of time to start looking.
Supersub love those stats and will be using them myself next year.
Going to revert back to my old way of backing. Lost more small anti post a lot earlier for key stats runners where the aim is the GN (if confirmed by trainers or owner). No doubt i will lose 25-30% of bets but it may be worth it instead of all those stupid last minute panic bets. I used to see it as a form of winter savings will do again.
Apart from the likes of Rathvinden and Ms Parfois already mentioned, I will be keeping an eye on Black Corton for next year. Was beating the likes of Ms Parfois and Elegant Escape earlier in the season but having run so many times during the season was understandably over the top for the spring festivals. After running moderately at Aintree should in theory drop to around 150. With a much lighter campaign next season and hopefully 1 bad run during the season, to drop the rating a bit more (!), he will potentially be a player if they target him for it. And one would expect Bryony to ride. 8 wins from 13 is an excellent strike rate including a grade 1.
Don’t know too much about the stamina yet, the damsire side had Nine De Sivola I noticed who stayed 4 miles.
seven towers that is good to know you are on board with missed approach, I do sit up and read your posts.
systems that is exactly what I noticed this year, people having late bets on horses we would not have considered
the previous 4 months weather that be panic or hype not sure.
Looking at RPR – GN OR from April 1st AND life time best (prior to winning GN)
Tiger Roll had a + 5 from April 1st but also a + 7 in October 2016 for Munster National so those figures may help us a little more.
RPR – GN OR
2018. Tiger Roll 170 (RPR – GN OR = 5)
2017. One For Arthur (RPR – GN OR = 8)
2016. Rule The World 174 (RPR – GN OR = 5)
2015. Many Clouds 171 (RPR – GN OR = 6)
2014. Pineau De Re 173 (RPR – GN OR = 8)
2013 Auroras Encore 173 (RPR – GN OR = 11)
So from April 1st its + 5 we are looking for but how will this look when comparing lifetime best prior to winning GN?
For Tiger Roll it would look like this – chase only..
First figure from April 1st. Second figure lifetime best prior to winning GN.
+5 / +7
In most cases but not all the best figure since April 1st is also the lifetime best.
2018 +5 / +7
2017 + 8 / +8
2016 +5 / + 5
2015 +6 / +6
2014 + 8 / +8
2013 + 11 / + 13
Its still + 5 we are looking for from April 1st 6/6.
Lifetime best before winning GN is also +5 which is 6/6 and + 6 which is 5/6.
Play safe and look for RPR – GN OR + 5 from April 1st.
Somebody mentioned BAYWING for next year.
He’s one I’ve followed closely since his Towton win. I’m absolutely convinced he’s not quick enough for the National, even with a bit of cut. It would have to be Red marauder year for him to get involved.
Look at this year’s race. Officially heavy, even if it was drying out a bit it was still very soft at least. Yet horses like Milansbar and Raz da Maree were still getting outpaced.
Even in a slower national you’re gonna need a fair turn of foot to win or get close
Saint Are “Arnie” has arrived back home safe and sound and the decision has been made in the horses’s interest to retire him.
Thanks Arnie for the pleasure you gave us.
I am sure all on here would induct you into our Blog’s AINTREE HALL OF FAME !
Yes I just read this Corbiere, (theres pics and a little video that won’t load for me on Tom Georges tweeted) great he made it to his much deserved planned active retirement
They said that, because there were so few problems he had 10 vets attending him at one point; bet he wondered what on earth was going on!
My immediate reaction when Tiger Roll won the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Chase was. “Yes, this looks good for the National”. The RPR figures for that race said lifetime best, until they got tweeked and just went one or two pounds below lifetime best. I remember when Rule The World won, I was quite keen on Many Clouds and the RPR figures was quite good but not an improvement on his best, which at the time was his victory in the 15 National. I remember not being comfortable in the allowance of a few pounds and in the end he ran a fine race, but a second victory was just beyond him. Reason I’m looking for a best RPR by the way is something I read from Nick Mordin a few years back, that Grand National winners peak at their victories and that’s probably why you have no champions defending their “crown”.
However Pineau De Re (I think) and Neptune Collonges didn’t post a lifetime best RPR in their years, but I did notice their winning official ratings better than what they had in their Nationals. First unless they running in a handicap, their official ratings is only a guide to their ability, but the official handicapper is a much better judge than me, so I use them at face value. If I find it to be better or at least equal then they should be up to the task of winning on that mark.
Tiger Roll was on a mark of 150 in the National, which from his victories in the Cross Country Chase this year and the 4 miler from last year’s festival I’d judged he was capable of winning from.
It’s not an exact science, but for me it’s the best way for judging “out of form” contenders.
Gordon Elliott has nailed it on getting a horse well enough handicapped for the big one. With both Cause of Causes and Tiger Roll they ran moderately either by running at the wrong trips or ‘being unfit’ up until weights day then picked up the form afterwards.
Its quite easy for others to follow suit to keep their horses around the 148-150 mark if they want them ‘trained for the race’.
Vicente did it last year started the season on 151 ran on ground he hates, (whether that was on purpose or by design only the trainer knows), went down to 146 and won the Scottish National again.
Rathvinden needs to do something similar next season where he is ‘out of his comfort zone’ shall we say or he will be too high in the weights.
Of course you have the other side of the coin whereby we don’t know who the winner yet, like One For Arthur, in other words currently in the 120s/130s and gets some hot form during the season and gets in.
But in essence that’s the 2 scenarios where the winner will come in many cases going forward I think.
*winner is yet
Firstly thanks again for all the comments.
When Tiger Roll jumped the chair things started to get exciting for our group, when he jumped the last and got to the elbow we celebrated, then silence, for what seemed like hours until “winner number 13…” we went crazy!!
The guy next to one of my mates said, look at them, they know what they are doing, they have won big. If it wasn’t for all you guys we wouldn’t have a clue what we were doing and for that I thank you so much. The money is nice but on Saturday I had one of the best days of my life with my best mates of 25 years.
I took all your stats and put them into a google doc which I shared around the group and my family. I added two more, number of chase runs over 3 miles. Last 6 winners now have had 7+. The second was only stated a couple of times which was 10 runs in last two years which is now a 6/6 stat. This gave me 3 horses, Tiger Roll, Final Nudge And Milansbar.
These were the only horses all my mates backed for the max bet365 offer. Plus I had tiger roll at 50/1 and 40/1 too and then my crazy £5 e/w double.
I’m still buzzing. Thanks so much everyone
Let me know what your system throws up next year please!
Really: Pleasant company. Think someone mentioned the RFO ante post tip. Didn’t Ruby ride him last year? Might explain the price differential. Not much has been mentioned on here about the virtual GN on ITV. Ok, it’s a bit silly, but it seems pretty good. Last year it had COC winning – wasn’t COC the blog top vote last year? Then this year, it was Tiger, prompting Skybet to offer enhanced 16/1 which I snapped up! Anyway, I was looking for a YouTube replay if the virtual GN, but alas 2018 is not there, so I watched a quick rerun of 2017, and guess who was a fast finishing 2nd to COC? Only Pleasant Company…..
The most striking thing with Rathvinden is how he travels. The concern for me is that although he is a novice he is that much older than Ms Parfois and therefore fully developed and of the two it is the mare who is entitled to improve at eight rather than Rathvinden at eleven. But couldn’t ignore the smooth travelly thing and therefore have small stakes on both already!
I’m on Rathvinden 33s at this stage.
Is Ms Parfois ground dependant ie needs it soft?
Do mares win Grand Nationals?
And will she run with the mares allowance still?
From before Aintree about ground…
Anthony Honeyball will continue to monitor conditions ahead of Ms Parfois’ possible tilt at the Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree.
The Dorset handler is hoping the ground stays on the soft side to persuade him to run the seven-year-old mare against the geldings in the Grade One over three miles and one furlong on the second day of the big meeting.
Ms Parfois was beaten half a length by Rathvinden in the four-mile National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase at Cheltenham on her latest start.
“We might run Ms Parfois in the three-mile Grade One novice chase. It’s worth £100,000,” said Honeyball.
“In case it’s soft ground, she’s going to keep that option open.
Barafear funny they had this yrs 2nd last yr!
Some of our group had this winner in April last yr tho, I know some people are saying christmas or one person who managed to write it first on here, which is also silly. I know several put up one or a few horses we fancied after last yrs race, which everyone is rushing to claim now lol… anyway our collective pick which several wrote then, unless I imagined it,.. was way superior prediction abilities than the Virtual National which was programmed with declared 40 runners silks way after Tigers cheltnham cross x country win last month, when the price had collapsed. Its great that a stats horse won and placed teh real thing and they had virtual success (who/how did they do with the places?? I was distracted by uninterested loud people and was barely able to hear it til the final jump) its definately fun and great that you snapped up a good offer thanks to it! mention it before the race next yr, cause you’ll remember it.
Many on here like the long game betting wise it can pay and they had 40/ 50-1. I like the even longer game so Tiger was a great winner in that sense, Saint Are tho, I had down as the potential winner after his appearance in GN aged 7, only beaten by an incredible horse who I thought was perfect for the race so I’ll take that 1,2 even though I only ended up backing Arnie. 3rd last yr too. I wonder if any 7 yr olds from last few runnings can come back and atleast loose by a nostril any nominations? can’t think right now… surely Baie needs it soft, I did notice in rerun she got taken right off course by a loose horse. Not seeing her win though.
Anyway its great the virtual version found the winner, its got a long way to go in terms of how things run, where they run etc. from what I saw, but result is going to get them recomissioned! hope 2018 appears on utube, I’d like a rerun of the races important actual bits too late evening (or on utube)…the build up when the horses are coming out on course and Davys interview which I missed with the unbelievable result.
Ms Parfois looks so Bindaree ( as said before or was that another horse Seven )
I rewatched TML and Ruby definitely said that Pleasant Company had no chance this year. Not that I pay attention to jockeys but he must have know how well in himself the horse was.
Sorry when I say ‘ everyone rushing to claim’ I am worried about this comment someone put up post race infecting the way we operate here which is about sharing in open friendly discussion, stats, ‘feel’ and choosing to value which ever opinion(s). People I hope are still simply proposing horses they like for next yrs race, which we nailed this past yr! I remember posting around cheltenham time, that we should give up ‘finding the winner’ cause wouldn’t it be funny if we already had it last April! I hate to think people feel the need to post the winner first on here to ‘claim it’ next yr, it changes the mood. We have some great horses nominated potentially for next yr, like a list of ten, which if I remember is about six more than this time last yr
Some awful points from jockeys this yr, AP said Milansbar the worst ladies ride, he only had 3 horses to choose from.
Seven you pointed me to Total Recalls jumping and I reassessed and agreed, what do you think of his result! We didn’t expect him to go round clouting every other fence did we! immediate comment I read after race I am sure said something like ‘we’ll try again’. This may be in my mind I’ll have to watch again, but I think atleast he improved after some awful early jumping.
Can someone put up any jockeys/ trainers comments as usual please. So potentially someone can find them for next yr.
Paddy P are offering Rathvinden at 40/1.
2019 winner has probably by April 30th;
ran at least 12 chases/hurdles
won at least 3 chases/hurdles
at least 6 chases
top3 28f or not contested/completed any such race
I’m a little bit uncomfortable in the aftermath of Saturday’s wonderful result for the blog, that there seems to be this unhealthy need to identify who tipped it first and when. I don’t personally think it is in keeping with the spirit and comeraderie that makes this blog such a wonderful forum to contribute to and be a part of. It has taken some of the gloss off the result for me.
As Tiger Roll won last year’s four miler at Cheltenham you didn’t need to be a rocket scientist or an amazing formbook student to mark it down in your notebook as a potential National winner of the future. In fact, with the emergence of second season chasers in recent years I’d say it was the first place to look.
Quite frankly, I don’t care who said it first or who will say next year’s winner first. I just want to take time to analyse information and make a considered judgement before staking cash or making suggestions on a public forum. I don’t start placing any serious bets until the weights are published. Some years I will have a throwaway ante-post bet on the following year once a market is formed in the aftermath of the current year. That is only if I see a price that looks attractive. Nothing stands out to me at this point so I certainly won’t be mentioning next year’s winner first especially as I will be focussing my attention on second season chasers.
I prefer to celebrate the fact that this year was a great result which saw the vast majority of the regular contributors on here make a handsome profit and I just hope we can follow it up again next year.
Fair do’s Richard Pitman. Had a massive input in virtual GN – named Blaklion, Wonderful Charm, Cause of Causes and OFA last year, stated though that going was probably too fast for OFA – Scudamore said he would have put OFA back in his box on the Saturday morning if it had been up to him. Pitman very keen on Tiger this year.
Supersub thanks for collating the last 6 nationals winning stats. I am with you, I think the last 6 years are key to the future. I am going to use them along with “sweet spot” etc stats to enhance a runners profile/suitability for the race. So, I am going to add/consider:
4+ preps for fitness
DSLR 21- 42 days
Within 5 – 8lbs of the bottom weight
Evidence of Spring form
Class 1/2 hurdle form ( + keep an eye on bumper form)
Evidence of a strong finisher
This year AF with a big weight 11.8 was in the frame, so big weights can’t be struck out with confidence ( except maybe for win purposes) if they have Gold Cup standard form. The, second Pleasant Company ( I had a few quid each way at 66/1 on PC the day after the weights, because at that time P, Mullins was quoted as saying that ”PC was running well in last years, was unlucky, but was out of form this year but we hope he is a spring horse” with only 2 preps he nearly won it, so striking out on only 2 preps is a risky business, and I have a strong belief in 4+ preps. When I started reading this blog especially after AE and PDR won there were a lot of posts which placed great importance on a horse showing spring form, I remembered that and hence my dabble on PC, hence why I am retaining it for the profile.
I like others have also posted thoughts on the importance of top hurdle form. I backed RTW mainly on the basis of his hurdle from and Irish GN place. So far it has been an impression that hurdle form since 2013 is an important factor. So I have had a brief look at the last 6 winners to see how far they share top class hurdle form and to give me more confidence about retaining it as part of my profile factors.
I am not suggesting top hurdle form is crucial but It shows that apart from OFA the winners had grade1,2, and class 1 h/c hurdle form. OFA was campaigned in class 4 hurdles but connections must have believed they had a top quality horse on their hands as they then pitched him into the Sefton where was pulled up. The Sefton, as has been posted by others, looks an important race for future top chasers over the last few years. MC is a bit weak in hurdle form, but was 2nd in a top handicap and ran well in the bumper.
2018 Tiger Roll hurdle form
Class 1, 2m Triumph hurdle winner
Class 1, 2m beaten twice by Hurricane Fly 18.5 and 19 lengths
Class 1, stayers 3m hurdle beaten 39 lengths by Cole Harden
Was beaten twice 18.5 and 19 lengths in 2m grade 1 hurdles by Hurricane Fly and numerous other grade 1 hurdle runs.
Anibale fly – 3rd to Bellshill grade 1 2.4f hurdle 2016
Won the 44k 2.4 coral h/c hurdle punches town 2016
Class 1, 3m Aintree Sefton nov hurdle PU behind Thistlecrack ( same race Blaklion 4th and final Nudge PU also)
Won a grade 2 hurdle over 2.4F
2nd to the New One in the class1 Neptune 2.5F
4th to Jezki in a class1 2.4 F
2nd in a grade1 3m to Zaidpour
6th beaten 14 lengths by More Of That in the stayers
Beaten 15 lengths by Champagne Fever in the Champion bumper
2nd in a C1NvHcHG3 34K over 2.4f
2nd in the GN was Saint Are who won the class 1 Aintree Sefton nov hurdle in 2011
he also won the 2011 may Punchestown 3m Nov Hurdle
2nd in the class 1, 2m royal Bond
2nd in a grade 2, 2.4f in Ireland
14th in 3 mile Pertemps
Won the class1 h/c John Smiths aintree 2.4f 2008
3rd that year was Tea For Three beaten 24 lengths by Bobsworth in 2011 3m Albert Bartlet
Just a final comment on Final Nudge. I wouldn’t give up on him for next year. The jockey’s comments say he had taken to the fences and was Brought down. His hurdle form
Class 1 bumper was beaten 15 lengths by Supasundea
Class 1, bumper, Newbury Feb 2015
He was beaten 7 and 3/4 lengths into 4th by Barters Hill, with Buveur D” air and Altior 2nd and 3rd.
Albert Bartlet trial Dec 2015, 3m soft
He was 2nd beaten 1.5 lengths by Uknowhatimeanharry
He is not yet quoted for 2019, but I am going to ask for a price.
Correction on Saint Are he did not win!!! the Punchestown 3mile novice he was 11th.
Lescargot that is a very interesting piece as I’ve never considered hurdle form before.
I think having high class hurdle form suggests you have the class and natural cruising speed that is required now to be competitive in the National.
I used to find having a hurdle run was useful in Irish trained runners as a means of disguising their handicap mark but never took into account its back form in that sphere.
It really is a totally different race now, isn’t it. I do wish they would reduce the pre race stuff, for the sake of the horses and also dismount immediately after the race and hose the horses down as in eventing. So many horses overheat these days [don't recall that happening in the past, although if I remember right Ballyhane died of a heart attack the year that there was a lot of anti racing stuff going on prior to the race; I still feel it contributed to his death]. Although I’m a bit of a purist when it comes to the National I’ve accepted that it has had to change to survive [and, good on you lot on here in the way you've adapted to the changes and worked out how to find the winner!].
I like alot of whats already been mentioned a few times since cheltenham, I especially liked Presenting Percy, before thinking he would be stolen from us for Gold Cup duty, as seems to be the modern development there are a few we have discussed winning or not winning and hurdling like a future GN winner this term on the general thread, maybe someone kept a note? can’t remember the horses names, but hopefully like RTW I won’t completely forget when they pop back up!
Maybe a complete list of the teams early picks would be helpful, as we approach sundown at sandown!? keep it fresh in our minds, posted up list for when we come back, or if anyone wants to think about next yr.
Agree for GN good hurdle speed and travelling post 2012 changes continues, I’d keep the longer stats and newer ones defined to keep a bigger picture atleast in part.
I think there are fighting similarities between many weight bearing top5 GN performances and Many Clouds was just exceptional. It would take something like him to win, I thought Anibale would either not complete or place well, but little chance of winning whereas I thought if Tiger could be steered round he could win. As I said before backing Anibale, he really loved the Gold Cup and I felt that made him. He loves being in the thick of it and looked to be coming in to himself there, completely the opposite of his last run where he lost sight of the fence anyway. Some of the team liked him earlier I remember quite a few ‘what about Anibale’ posts. He was pretty good supporters.
Just seen Cue Card has been retired, that is IMO and as other yrs, on the back of a scare and that scare was darling Saint Are well done to Cue Card tho shame they didn’t bypass cheltenham (and subsequent planned Sandown finale) and go for Aintree! nevermind. Not sure I like the idea of him being promised living by silage fumes for the rest of his life tho send him on a holiday! …. its summer here as I hear it is there after predicted downpour yesterday at aintree so what happened to spring?
Spring has sprung here today kj, but I’m sure it won’t last….they’re looking for a home for Saint Are, I believe, but I don’t think he’ll fit in my garden….
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