Grand National 2018 – The final countdown

We are into the last few days before the 2018 Grand National.

Please add your thoughts, tip and trends to this page

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897 Responses to Grand National 2018 – The final countdown

  1. Kevski111 says:

    One I will be backing for next year will be Children’s List, ran a cracker for one so inexperienced.

  2. kj says:

    Yes its great news Mo, after looking at the replay on utube, yes the one with RUK where all the horses are mentioned in commentary.. satisfaction ;) an image of a horse apparently dead 2018 GN comes up on screen as up next (didn’t watch whatever it was) comments section under GN video says ‘dead horses’ even ‘oh god Rachel Blackmores a goner’ or something along those lines, so there you go people speaking before they know, but just making stuff up!!!! and people actively getting into ‘fake news’ popping up lies about the race even though everyone is ok. Disgraceful behaviour.

    Can I just mention Total Recall er yes… all over, he even gets bumped round bechers second time by loose horse, ah dear.
    Raz to his credit hung onto coat tails, excellent canal turn, jockey placed him to make progress but they all just went away, completely unable to do the dazzle dance, 100% proof it turned out not really soft after that sunny day. Lovely horses.

    Mo, we have alot of donkeys in scrubby ‘garrigue’ countryside down here, they are lovely not seen transporting kids on hot beaches, petted some in the middle of knowhere 2wks ago…. and my partner said the marvelous line ‘ but what are donkeys for’

  3. Systemsman says:

    One comment i never wont to hear again.

    Small horses cant win the Grand National!!!!

    Key stats for next year Team?

  4. TC says:

    Ballyoptic would be the second season chaser i’d be considering for next year. He’s a very good horse when he gets a flat galloping track – his cheltenham form is shocking, given he’s trained by NTD, i’d be very surprised if he isnt already considering the race. Might just be one last chance for Old Vic.

  5. crisp73 says:

    Russell getting his irons back before the twentieth! Alpha flipping to his left at the chair, nearly took out Warriors, if he had flipped to his right could have been curtains for Tiger.

    Timeform’s sectionals will be interesting – my very amateur timings had Tiger only a second or so faster than Miinnehoma at the water jump. About 8 seconds slower than Rule The World but then just about the same timing as RTW from water to the finish.

    Pleasant Company relished that pace/going, he was involved in the race last year until the finish.

  6. kj says:

    Agree TC there are a few contenders to look at a yr ahead, possibly more than it felt like last yr! trawlers? any ‘evidence’ ;) and Crisp I saw that in replay, quite a few went over that fall (inc Raz at the back) Davy is a legend and its why in the end I thought Tiger would stay standing. Ucello seemed to fall because the horse infront flipped up some birch, he doesn’t like a horse infront of him here, puts him off his stride, pressumaby part of the reason he went to the front. Daryl knew.

  7. kj says:

    Can’t think of any great staying 12yr olds (atleast not right now from memory) that will be 13 making up the places next yr ;) maybe next yr won’t be softish! ok the following yr maybe Milansbar can come back and do the same thing if he can keep his OR up. But is he like a late developer and who will comeback who knows….Bless was brilliant yesterday, didn’t get a mention til late on ITV commentary? Gas Line old Boy again ran on the same as before. It seems those in early or late in their careers is where its at. Agree Anibale with compression would of helped, only 8 too,.. but are the days of compression over? or will the new guy want to tempt the Gold Cuppers? Native River team could switch eventually…. oh happy day, future looks interesting with Percy too, have a great digestion of past future and enjoy yesterday! :D

  8. Mike N says:

    Systemsman says:
    April 15, 2018 at 11:42 am
    One comment i never wont to hear again.
    Small horses cant win the Grand National!!!!
    Key stats for next year Team?
    ———————————————————————————

    last 4 winners aged 8,9,8,8. Nearly if not all of the last 10 winners were debutants.
    The other key stats are the usual I guess.

  9. The Stayer says:

    Glad to hear that’s Saint Are is ok.

    With regards next year, a few years ago I had high hopes that Killultagh Vic would make a National horse. But he’s had problems and will probably not go down the National route, which is a shame as love Old Vic and there aren’t many of his progeny left.

  10. Sambo says:

    Sambo says:
    April 6, 2018 at 11:42 am
    Good research and tips in here. I prefer using more recent trends since the course changes in 2013 and managed to dig this out

    5/5 C1 Chase top 3 27f +
    5/5 at least 3 season runs
    5/5 between 10 – 24 chase runs
    5/5 at least 7 3m+ chase/hurdles runs
    5/5 a Racing post rating of 171 +
    4/5 under 11st

    Taking systemsmans / Lucky Vane2 / miinnehoma combined list

    1. Tiger Roll. 171 – OK. A. *
    2. Rathvinden. 175 – OK (if he runs). A.
    3. Milansbar. 174 – OK. A. *
    4. Houblon Des Obeaux. 172 – OK. A. *
    5. Vincente. 174 – OK. A
    6. Final nudge. 171 – OK. A
    7. Vintage clouds. 174 – OK. A
    8. Blaklion. 171. OK. A

    It leaves

    1. Tiger Roll. 171 – OK. A. *
    2. Milansbar. 174 – OK. A. *
    3. Vintage clouds. 174 – OK. A

    £10 E/W Tiger Roll @14 Milansbar @40

    2 selections 1st and 5th by using all that info. Will do the same next year

  11. crisp73 says:

    I dont know if some well known pedigree sites are 100% but I’m sure it was duscussed here last year, Pleasant from the same family as COD? B27? Lady Flame 1955? Cant be many from that family that have had a go at the GN- 1st/2nd for COD; 6th/2nd for Pleasant.

    I’m sure damsire Alderbrook has sired a long distance chase winners, soft ground winners.

  12. pablo says:

    Apologies to Irish Raider and Gallileo if they read my post as trying to claim first post about Tiger Roll to win in 2018 – I did not say that and it would never have been my intention

    Well done both hope you enjoy your winnings

  13. pablo says:

    Crisp – yes Racing Post states that Pleasant Company is from the family of Comply Or Die

    According to pedigree query (caveats about accuracy of the info noted from post by red flash) they both have
    LADY FLAME (IRE) b. 1955 in the tail line of the dam

    Using the same source, Tiger Roll appears to have NADIKA (FR) b. 1948 in the tail of his dam as does Young Driver who was second to West Tip

    And Road To Riches appears to have MRS MUSTANG (GB) ch. 1950 in the tail of his dam as does Alvarado (twice fourth in the race) and Alvarado’s brother Character Building (best-placed 7th)

    That’s if the data is correct in pedigreequery!

  14. pablo says:

    * from the further family of Comply Or Die

  15. crisp73 says:

    Pablo, or anyone, Tiger and Native River family 31?

    Thanks Pablo.

    Tiger Roll RPR>GNOR5? last 8 chases

  16. crisp73 says:

    11 runs for Tiger in last two seasons. Isnt that 10 or more for GN winners in these post 2012 GNs?

  17. Pollyowls says:

    10 first-timers I’d love to see in next year’s race..
    Our Duke… Presenting Percy… Bellshill… Whisper… Minella Rocco… Abolitionist… Black Corton… Missed Approach… Vintage Clouds…
    Thomas Patrick
    I can think of a few more besides.. but with those in, One For Arthur back and some of yesterday’s heroes returning, it would be a race I’d go a long way to see. .

  18. pablo says:

    Tiger Roll RPR>GNOR5? last 8 chases

    Yes – last twice at the Cheltenham Festival RPR 155

  19. Lescargot says:

    TC I think you are right, Ballyoptic is a good call.
    Won a 3mptp
    Won the sefton grade 1 3m hurdle against Bellshill
    As you say will be second season chaser
    5 chases so far with a grade 2, 3m chase, but no h/c experience
    RPR chase 157
    DI ? CMP?

    OR currently 150, so hasn’t got a lot of wiggle room and needs 4+ chases
    Is in the Scottish.

  20. Seven Towers says:

    Ms Parfois is the only UK staying novice that has served it up to the Irish but still came up just short. Elegant Escape visually looks as though marathon trips are going to suit in time.

    Wouldn’t be taking too much notice of Monbeg Notorious’ IN run either.

  21. Lescargot says:

    As do many, I thought Anibale Fly’s run was tremendous.I didn’t think he would run that well with the weight in that ground. I know its the wrong thread, but I was and am keen on Disko for the Gold Cup and he previously gave a sound beating to AF in last years Punchestown 3 m nov gold cup, he won very easily. He’s in the Puncheston Gold cup on the 25/4 but won’t have run for 172 days following a injury/lay off which prevented him from running in the Chelt GC ( maybe a blessing in disguise). He is not quoted for the 2019 GC but I have asked Bet365 for a price, will post on general horse racing and betting tips.

  22. Seven Towers says:

    Just had a thought about RUK. As much as I loved their coverage, not sure what they are going to do next year what with the Irish racing moving over as the GN will now clash with the Ballysax meeting.

  23. Irish Raider says:

    Never crossed my mind Pablo and I probably wasn’t the first. Lucky enough to have followed him from the Triumph Hurdle win. Also have a good connection at Gigginstown who gave me updates. Between his 3 Cheltenham victories and Munster national he made me a pretty penny and yesterday was the icing on the cake! To be lucky enough to be so confident of a horse like that is rare and hugely enjoyable when it happens. I tipped him to anyone who would listen and got photos last night of multiple betting slips.
    I’m not too knowledgeable when it comes to racing but the guys and gals on here rubber stamped what I thought with unbelievable study into stats and trends. Like so many I have loved the National since I was a small boy and yesterday was something special. My favourite trainer, hockey and horse. Might never see it again.
    Thank you so much to all on here your contributions are fantastic.

    It was a fantastic team effort!!

  24. Systemsman says:

    Heavy ground Grand Nationals.
    If we ever get one again we must expect the unexpected I think. Lucky for us the right horse won but a 13 year old came 3rd, and horse with RPR 167 cane 2nd (just lost), while Anibale Fly came a wonderful 4th with 11.08 (what a great achievement).

    Don’t like heavy GN’s but i have won twice with my first choice on heavy so i should not complain.

  25. Corbiere says:

    Throw a couple more names into the hat for next year.
    Gold Present
    Baywing

  26. Systemsman says:

    2019 Grand National.

    Fact to file away.

    Adjusted best RPR in the 12months preceding GN win of the last seven GN winners and the month they achieved it in from April 1st.

    2018. Tiger Roll 170 (March) .Shown as 171 most of the time on Racing Post.
    2017. One For Arthur 173 (January).
    2016. Rule The World 174 (twice in September and December).
    2015. Many Clouds 171 (January)
    2014. Pineau De Re 173 (April also 171 in January)
    2013 Auroras Encore 173 (twice in April).
    2012. Neptune Collonges 178 (February. Also 174 in January).

    Team anyone know why Tiger Roll is now has adjusted170 for the GN when he has been 171 and was changed to 170 Friday morning but went 171 Friday evening and now 170 again!! Just don’t get it.

  27. Alesia says:

    Can anyone advise me how I access the CMP data for myself?

  28. Systemsman says:

    File way for 2019.

    6/6 C1 Chase top 3 27f +
    6/6 at least 3 season runs
    6/6 between 10 – 24 chase runs
    6/6 at least 7 3m+ chase/hurdles runs
    6/6 a Racing post rating of 171 + (Racing Post gave TR 171 on day of race – now down as 170)
    5/6 under 11st

    To be 100% correct unless Racing Post makes an amendment once again we would have.
    6/6 a Racing post rating of 170 or more,

    If the Racing Post man or people see this please sort out the RPR for Tiger roll please once and for all.

  29. Seven Towers says:

    Early look at some that may turn up in 2019, so obviously next seasons runs not yet known, deductions for weight not yet known but you can see the sort of horse that is already scoring over the 72.5 or getting near.

    Horse Score
    General Principle 85
    Anibale Fly 82.5
    Baywing 80
    Blaklion 77.5
    Tiger Roll 77.5
    Missed Approach 75
    Bellshill 67.5
    Regal Flow 65
    Minella Rocco 60
    Gold Present 60
    Rathvinden 60
    Ms Parfois 57.5
    Gas Line Boy 57.5
    Pleasant Company 57.5
    Total Recall 55
    Sizing Tennessee 55
    Thomas Patrick 47.5
    The Dutchman 47.5
    Monbeg Notorious 45
    Ballyoptic 42.5
    Big River 40
    Elegant Escape 37.5
    Mall Dini 35
    Alpha Des Obeaux 25
    Isleofhopendreams 25
    Dounikos 15

  30. Systemsman says:

    2019 possible:

    Tiger Roll – if not top weight and Good/Soft
    Bellshill
    Rathvinden
    Cogry – needs a good win.

    Going to be the best GN ever in 2019.

    Memo to me.

    Back more anti post bets just after weights day but nothing over 11.00 (heavier weighted runners more likely to get pulled out).
    Last minute bets must get NRMB so don’t use William Hill !!!
    Any runner must have RPR 170 or better from April !st.
    + these six stats.
    6/6 C1 Chase top 3 27f + (or C1 Chase win at 26f)
    6/6 at least 3 season runs
    6/6 between 10 – 24 chase runs
    6/6 at least 7 3m+ chase/hurdles runs
    6/6 a Racing post rating of 171 + (Racing Post gave TR 171 on day of race – now down as 170). Play safe and use 170 for now.

  31. Lucky Vane2 says:

    Alesia says:
    April 15, 2018 at 3:38 pm
    Can anyone advise me how I access the CMP data for myself?

    Hi Alesia, I access the CMP data via pedigreequiry.com , the are other sites which you could use. However the Conduit Mare Profile unlike the Dosage Profile is only accessible through subscription. For example I paid $80 dollars for their services (whatever that is at current exchange rate, at the time of subscribing).

  32. Alesia says:

    Thanks Lucky Vane. Probably a little bit steep for me!

  33. Pollyowls says:

    Dubacilla…
    Sorry missed your post in all the post-race excitement.
    My ‘Top 15′ races are:-
    Ladbroke Trophy (formerly the Hennessy) – Newbury, late Nov
    Becher Chase – Aintree, early Dec
    Welsh National – Chepstow, late Dec
    Classic Chase – Warwick, mid Jan
    Grand National Trial – Haydock, late Feb
    Cross Country Chase, Fulke Walwyn / Kim Muir, Gold Cup – all Cheltenham, mid Mar
    Midlands National – Uttoxeter, mid Mar
    Irish National – Fairyhouse, Easter Monday
    Topham Trophy, Betway Handicap Chase, Grand National – all Aintree, early Apr
    Scottish National – Ayr, mid Apr
    Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread) – Sandown, late Apr

    To qualify, finish in Top 6 in National, Top 4 in all others…

  34. moreen says:

    I don’t understand these things much but just read an article that said Tiger Roll had Saddlers Wells on both sides of his pedigree [didn't realise that Character Building and Alvarado were brothers btw...].

  35. moreen says:

    Irish R; a preview I watched prior to Cheltenham said that, when asked about all of his runners the one that Gordon Elliott was raving about was Tiger Roll.

  36. pablo says:

    Systemsman says:
    April 15, 2018 at 3:35 pm
    2019 Grand National.
    Fact to file away.
    Adjusted best RPR in the 12months preceding GN win of the last seven GN winners and the month they achieved it in from April 1st.

    ——————————-

    Systemsman,

    2018. Tiger Roll 170 (March) .Shown as 171 most of the time on Racing Post.
    2017. One For Arthur 173 (January).
    2016. Rule The World 174 (twice in September and December).
    2015. Many Clouds 171 (January)
    2014. Pineau De Re 173 (April also 171 in January)
    2013 Auroras Encore 173 (twice in April).
    2012. Neptune Collonges 178 (February. Also 174 in January).

    May be because Minella Rocco was withdrawn and therefore top weight moved from 162 to 161
    Tiger was RPR – GN OR of 155 – 150 = 5
    Add four pounds (difference from 12’0 to top weight) to 5 makes 9
    Add this to Minella Rocco as top weight = 162 + 9 = 171
    Add this top Blaklion as top weight = 162 + 8 = 170

    Top weight is variable so rather than have an absolute adjusted RPR as a trend maybe you need to make an adjustment to the top weight to set your target each year (and every time the weights change)

    For example:
    First calculate the minimum RPR – GN OR you are comfortable with…
    2018. Tiger Roll 170 (RPR – GN OR = 5)
    2017. One For Arthur (RPR – GN OR = 8)
    2016. Rule The World 174 (RPR – GN OR = 5)
    2015. Many Clouds 171 (RPR – GN OR = 6)
    2014. Pineau De Re 173 (RPR – GN OR = 8)
    2013 Auroras Encore 173 (RPR – GN OR = 11)

    Say it’s RPR – GN OR of 5 (6/6)

    Add 5 to 4 (difference between 12’0 and top weight which is 11’10 these days) equals 9

    This is your adjustment to top weight GN OR

    So for:
    2018 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170 target for adjusted RPRs
    2017 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170
    2016 top weight 165 plus 9 = 174
    2015 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170
    2014 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170
    2013 top weight 158 plus 9 = 167

    If top weight is 163 next year then your target would be 172 etc.

  37. pablo says:

    Realised a mistake so posting again…

    Systemsman,
    2018. Tiger Roll 170 (March) .Shown as 171 most of the time on Racing Post.
    2017. One For Arthur 173 (January).
    2016. Rule The World 174 (twice in September and December).
    2015. Many Clouds 171 (January)
    2014. Pineau De Re 173 (April also 171 in January)
    2013 Auroras Encore 173 (twice in April).
    2012. Neptune Collonges 178 (February. Also 174 in January).

    May be because Minella Rocco was withdrawn and therefore top weight moved from 162 to 161
    Tiger was RPR – GN OR of 155 – 150 = 5
    Add four pounds (difference from 12’0 to top weight) to 5 makes 9
    Add this to Minella Rocco as top weight = 162 + 9 = 171
    Add this top Blaklion as top weight = 161 + 9 = 170

    Top weight is variable so rather than have an absolute adjusted RPR as a trend maybe you need to make an adjustment to the top weight to set your target each year (and every time the weights change)

    For example:

    First calculate the minimum RPR – GN OR you are comfortable with…
    2018. Tiger Roll 170 (RPR – GN OR = 5)
    2017. One For Arthur (RPR – GN OR = 8)
    2016. Rule The World 174 (RPR – GN OR = 5)
    2015. Many Clouds 171 (RPR – GN OR = 6)
    2014. Pineau De Re 173 (RPR – GN OR = 8)
    2013 Auroras Encore 173 (RPR – GN OR = 11)

    Say it’s RPR – GN OR of 5 (6/6)

    Add 5 to 4 (difference between 12’0 and top weight which is 11’10 these days) equals 9

    This is your adjustment to top weight GN OR

    So for:
    2018 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170 target for adjusted RPRs
    2017 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170
    2016 top weight 165 plus 9 = 174
    2015 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170
    2014 top weight 161 plus 9 = 170
    2013 top weight 158 plus 9 = 167

    If top weight is 163 next year then your target would be 172 etc.

  38. GreenGoddess says:

    Pollyowls – thoughts on adding the BobbyJo?

  39. Irish Raider says:

    And Munster National?

  40. Irish Raider says:

    Back him now for the Cross Country!

  41. Systemsman says:

    pablo wonderful work – thank you. I will certainly use that – its a clear way forward. I am going to have to read your post many times when i have more time to full get my head around it but it all made good sense to me.

  42. Pollyowls says:

    GG / IR
    I think if I was to add a race in Ireland it would probably be the Thyestes before the Bobbyjo… I have a slight preference for the Thyestes as it tends to be a good sized field, where the Bobbyjo has had only 6 or 7 runners in most of the last few years. They have also downgraded the Bobbyjo to a Grade 3 this year.
    However, if you look at the stats only Pleasant Company would not have made it onto the list by not including the Bobbyjo… horses like Hedgehunter, Black Apalachi, Oscar Time and Snowy Morning would all have made it onto the qualifiers list from other races.
    As for the satellite Nationals in Ireland, if you included one, you’d probably have to include them all… taking everything into account I’m happy to leave the list as it is for the moment. Will keep it under review though…

  43. Alesia says:

    The first and second had both run in the NH Chase. It’s produced the Gold Cup and GN winner this year.

    Also 9 out of the last ten winners (Rule The World the exception) had all run at Aintree before.

  44. Seven Towers says:

    Ms Parfois it is then!

  45. GreenGoddess says:

    Has anyone ever expanded the stats to the top 4 from each year?

  46. GreenGoddess says:

    Polly – makes sense

  47. Supersub says:

    pablo,

    Great piece earlier regarding the RPRs.

    Would I be over simplifying it by suggesting all you need is a horse whose RPR is 5lbs higher than its official GN mark in order to meet the trend?

  48. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    Had a fantastic day yesterday,first 2 winners on card,and GN winner very profitable,

    Thanks MANDIE,PABLO,
    It doesn’t really matter when we tipped TIGER ROLL up,whether it was last year or the friday before the GN,
    The main objective was as a whole to come up with the GN 2018 winner,and as a TEAM we came up with
    TIGER ROLL,everybody contributes to this forum,we are ONE FAMILY,well done bloggers,enjoy your winnings.

  49. pablo says:

    Supersub, exactly just look for 5 pounds above GN OR to meet the trend Sysyemsman uses

    I was just showing the example in terms of adjusted RPRs which can be sorted on the RP racecard when that’s out next year

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