Grand National 2018 – March Forfeit Stage

The latest forfeit stage for the Grand National took place recently and horses such as Outlander, Edwulf and Bristol De Mai were taken out of the race. A total of 73 horses remain at this stage with, at the moment, Willie Mullins’ Childrens List the last horse guaranteed to make the race if connections so choose.

The bookies are currently struggling to split Blaklion and Total Recall for favouritsim, with Gordon Elliott’s Cheltenham Cross County winner, Tiger Roll, also attracting plenty of support.

Please add your thoughts, trends and tips for the 2018 Grand National to this page

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1,074 Responses to Grand National 2018 – March Forfeit Stage

  1. Seven Towers says:

    I think the last recorded Going Stick for Rule The World’s National was 4.7 but they obviously had more rain following that reading and therefore it would have been even lower come race time.

    Last recorded GS reading for 2015 and 2017 were both 6.6 although the times suggest it had quickened up more since that final reading in 2015.

    Was there rain on the morning/afternoon in 2014 as the GS reading was 6.7 but the winning time does not suggest this?

  2. scottyboy says:

    Looks like Vicente is a definite runner again. Nick Scholfield has had to get off Maggio and Brendan Powell now rides the 13 year old

  3. pablo says:

    There were showers around when Pineau won in 2014 – some water on the camera lens if I remember correctly

    Champion jockey Tony McCoy said: Double Seven ran great. The ground was probably a little dead for him and it caught him out a little bit. He is a very gutsy little horse and has been very well prepared by Martin Brassil.

  4. pablo says:

    ^ tv camera lens

  5. Seven Towers says:

    The most marked change was last year. On the Sunday the GS was 4.8 and soft. By Saturday at 11am it was 6.6. Did they water last year? Was it a completely dry build up in the week?

    On the Tuesday last year the GS was 5.7.

    Be interesting to see what yesterday’s reading was when it appears.

  6. Tomboy says:

    Last year the Friday was warm. We were in Liverpool in shirts and not at all cold. Saturday morning was very warm, I remember queuing in a cafe for a coffee and wanting to get outside. By the time we were at aintree it was hot. Won’t be the same this year

  7. pablo says:

    Combination of going stick and weather from say Thursday to Saturday

    Big difference between 12C on a damp track and 18-19C

    It’s not an exact science, but going stick of 6.6 or more and drying conditions seems to be the favourable formula for faster times

    Times also dependent on impact/strength of any headwind and tailwind – but that’s another matter!

  8. pablo says:

    Also the time (and date!) of the going stick reading

  9. Golano says:

    My thoughts for what they are worth……

    Minnella Rocco = Chance must have gone with the rain
    Black Lion = Gets a place with a better ride this year
    Anibale Fly = Looks better every time i watch GC replay , top 3
    TLS = Will handle soft better than most top 6
    Total Recall = 27lb higher than start of season, Heavy fall in GC and pos heavy going, cant have it PU or Fall
    Alpha des Obeaux = Backed this one but slightly disappointed with jockey booking (Big stat to bust) and also
    concerned the going may be softer than ideal.
    Gold Present = Stamina? Going? Trainer record? PU
    Vincente = Would fancy it on Good to Soft , withdrawn if Soft going?
    Tiger Roll = Cant see him getting round Faller
    Regal Encore = Plod around ,top 10
    Vieux Lion Rouge = Dont think he stays well enough especially if it comes up soft
    Warriors Tale = Must have been sold to Hemmings as a potential National type, how good a judge is Nicholls? top6
    Seeyouatmidnight = Would have liked to see a better prep but i have always liked this horse top 3
    Ucello Conti = Chance top6
    Raz De Maree = Might get his ground, shame hes not a couple of years younger top 10
    I Just Know = Form good enough? top10
    Virgillio = Had a bit eachway but ground may have gone against him
    Baie Des Iles = Could still be plodding on at the end top10
    Captain Redbeard = Can not see it staying PU
    Milansbar = Would need a easy lead, Wont get it PU
    Final Nudge = Will get round top10

    Really struggled this year, still not that confident with the weather as it is……………………………

  10. Corbiere says:

    Weather Watch:
    Update went out at 11.30am it had eased off considerably, went to dentist 5 min walk, took umbrella, but never put it up. Met Office prediction rain to stop at Noon, guess what rain completely stopped Noon.
    Scary stuff !
    Right now: Sky white all over, bit cool, bit gloomy,little windy (that’s just a little).

  11. Corbiere says:

    Kevski your prediction Good, Good to Soft
    Wow big call that, if you get it correct will recomend you get a job with Met Office.
    My opinion on your call OPTIMISTIC at best (no offence intended).

  12. Corbiere says:

    Aidan Coleman – Jockey for Pendra

  13. Corbiere says:

    Racing Post inside front page Weather Pictures for this week at Aintree
    9mm Rain today (likely to have been accurate)
    2mm Tomorrow (presume they mean showers in middle of night.
    0mm Thursday
    1mm Friday (Wow, hope they are right)
    0mm Saturday
    So another different opinion of week ahead.

  14. Corbiere says:

    One of experts in RP today (Sorry can’t remember which one) said attributes I look for when trying to find a GN Winner.
    Class, Stamina, Jumping ability, a horse whose handicap mark looks to have been protected and Trained for the race.
    Opinions guys who is best fit for the above ?

  15. kj says:

    Firm opinions Golano, was wondering who you were really going to fancy then…. yeah its tough.
    The other problem finding the winner in a (possibly) soft yr is if you prefer the chances of those working their way into it, they are the ones more likely to get traffic problems,. like Raz last yr.
    Thought maybe more traffic problems in soft? but now not so sure, the pace will slow as everyone looks to get home, but that will mean they are more tightly packed. Horses will empty quickly or if not just try to refuse like Bellshill recently at any time! I hope jockeys know their horses.

  16. Golano says:

    KJ , my plan is to lay off all those im showing a profit for on Betfair (SYaM, AdO, Baie d Illes, Ucello)
    keep Anibale Fly and then re invest Friday/Saturday morning once im more confident what the going will be…..

  17. Supersub says:

    kj, coming from off the pace didn’t stop Arthur last year. Given a near textbook ride by Fox.

    I would say you are less likely to encounter traffic problems if you are coming from the rear if the ground is soft as the field get more strung out.

    Problem is it takes more energy to get there in soft ground so it’s a difficult one to read. On balance I’d want a horse that is sitting fairly handy this year.

  18. billymag says:

    Not sure about it being good ground on Saturday but Id be pretty confident of G/S, remarkably even with all the rain it does look like we should get it.

  19. pablo says:

    Long post…

    Data from:
    - Racing Post for Thursday to Saturday each year
    - Turftrax for weather overnight and on the day

    RP data is from a consistent source but some of the going stick stuff is slightly different to Turftrax – time and date of readings is not always clear from either RP or Turftrax

    ———————————————————–
    2009
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: Mildmay/Hurdle course – GOOD; National course – GOOD (Good to soft in places) (Mildmay 7.6, Hurdle 7.7, National 7.5)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny
    Wind: light, half against

    Friday
    Going: Mildmay/Hurdle course – GOOD; National course – GOOD (Good to soft in places) (Mildmay 7.6, Hurdle 7.7, National 7.5)
    Weather conditions: Overcast, sunny spells
    Wind: Light half-against

    Saturday
    Going: GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; National 6.6, Mildmay/Hurdle 6.5)
    Weather conditions: Fine but very breezy
    Wind: Fresh, half-against

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    5mm of rain overnight
    Cloudy with outbreaks of rain first thing. Bright spells
    developing, a few light showers, but also some sunny spells, 12C

    ———————————————————–
    2010
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: Mildmay & Hurdle course – GOOD (Good to soft in places) National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places)
    Weather conditions: Fine
    Wind: Fresh across

    Friday
    Going: Mildmay & Hurdle course – GOOD; National course – GOOD TO SOFT (National; 5.8)
    Weather conditions: sunny
    Wind: almost nil

    Saturday
    Going: GOOD (Good to soft in places on National course; 6.4)
    Weather conditions: fine, sunny and warm
    Wind: light 1/2 against

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    Dry overnight
    Dry with plenty of sunshine, 16-18C

    ———————————————————–
    2011
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD TO SOFT changing to GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places) after Race 5 (4:15); Hurdle course – GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 7.1); National course – SOFT (Good to soft in places; 6.5)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny
    Wind: moderate 1/2 against

    Friday
    Going: GOOD (Good to soft in places on Grand National course; Mildmay 7.8 Hurdle 8.0 National 7.2)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny
    Wind: light across

    Saturday
    Going: GOOD (Good to soft in places on Grand National course; Mildmay 7.8 Hurdle 8.0 National 7.2)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny, warm
    Wind: light 1/2 against

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    Selective watering of the Mildmay course and parts of the National course overnight.
    Dry overnight, bright and sunny, warm 21C

    ———————————————————–
    2012
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: Mildmay & Hurdle courses – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places fences 13 & 14; Mildmay & Hurdle 6.7; National 6.4)

    Friday
    Going: GOOD (Good to soft in places; Mildmay 6.7; Hurdle 6.5 National 6.7)
    Weather conditions: Showers
    Wind: Light behind

    Saturday
    Going: GOOD (Good to soft in places on Grand National course)
    Weather conditions: Fine
    Wind: Moderate half-behind

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    Selectively watered overnight 3mm/5mm
    Dry overnight. Dry and sunny morning, possible light shower in the afternoon 10C

    ———————————————————–
    2013
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places); Mildmay & Hurdle courses – GOOD (Good to soft in places)
    Weather conditions: fine but breezy and cold
    Wind: fresh 1/2 behind

    Friday
    Going: National course & Hurdle course – GOOD TO SOFT; Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to soft in places); (National 6.2, Mildmay 6.4 & Hurdle 6.0)
    Weather conditions: overcast, breezy and cold
    Wind: fresh 1/2 behind

    Saturday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to soft in places); Hurdle course & National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; National 6.0, Mildmay 6.3 & Hurdle 6.0)
    Weather conditions: fine but breezy and cold
    Wind: fresh 1/2 behind

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    All courses selectively watered overnight
    Dry overnight
    Dry & bright day, sunny 8C.

    ———————————————————–
    2014
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD (7.1); Hurdle course – GOOD (Good to soft in places; 6.8); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.6)
    Weather conditions: fine
    Wind: light 1/2 against

    Friday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to soft in places; 7.1); Hurdle course – GOOD TO SOFT (6.8); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.6)
    Weather conditions: fine
    Wind: light 1/2 against

    Saturday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD; Hurdle course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; Mildmay 7.1, Hurdle 6.8, National 6.6)
    Weather conditions: overcast, breezy, light showers
    Wind: moderate 1/2 against

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    Grand National course – selective watered 3mm fences 13 and 14.
    Dry overnight.
    Cloudy with light patchy rain first thing with brighter spells, showers thro afternoon, some poss. heavy 4mm, 15C.

    ———————————————————–
    2015
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; Mildmay 6.8, Hurdle & National course 6.4)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny, warm
    Wind: light 1/2 against

    Friday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to Soft in places; 6.8); Hurdle & National courses – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.4)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny
    Wind: moderate 1/2 against

    Saturday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to soft in places; 6.7); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.6); Hurdle course – GOOD (Good to soft in places; 6.5)
    Weather conditions: fine but breezy and cool
    Wind: fresh 1/2 against

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    Friday evening – selective watered 2/3mm.
    Dry overnight. 2.5mm to 9am. Dry and sunny, cooler. Breezy 12C.

    ———————————————————–
    2016
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: National & Hurdle courses – SOFT (Good to soft in places; Nat 4.8; Hdl 5.3); Mildmay course – GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 5.3)
    Weather conditions: fine but breezy and cold, shower race 2
    Wind: fresh 1/2 behind

    Friday
    Going: Hurdle & National course – SOFT (Good to soft in places; Hdl 5.3, Ntl 4.8); Mildmay course – GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; Mmy 5.3)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny
    Wind: moderate 1/2 against

    Saturday
    Going: Hurdle & National course – SOFT (Good to soft in places) changing to SOFT (Heavy in places) after Race 5 (4.20); Mildmay course – GOOD TO SOFT changing to SOFT after Race 4 (3.40)
    Weather conditions: changeable, heavy showers
    Wind: light 1/2 behind

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    7mm overnight.
    Dry & bright start, cloudy with
    showers pm 2mm 10C

    ———————————————————–
    2017
    Racing Post:

    Thursday
    Going: Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to Soft in places; 6.7); Hurdle course – GOOD (7.0); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.2)
    Weather conditions: mainly fine
    Wind: moderate 1/2 against

    Friday
    Going: GOOD (Good to soft in places on National course; Mildmay 7.0, Hdl 7.1, National 6.5)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny
    Wind: almost nil

    Saturday
    Going: Hurdle course – GOOD (6.9); Mildmay course – GOOD (Good to Soft in places; 6.7); National course – GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.6)
    Weather conditions: fine and sunny; very warm
    Wind: light 1/2 against

    Turftrax for Saturday:
    All courses watered overnight Mildmay, Hurdle and Grand National 4mm
    Dry overnight.
    Dry, warm and sunny 17C

  20. Corbiere says:

    Corbs THE FINAL FRONTIER , ONE STEP BEYOND coming to a screen near you very soon.

  21. Kevski111 says:

    Would roll about on the floor pulling my hair out if Buywise wins so added him :)

  22. Corbiere says:

    Spooky that Kevski going through the field one last time for my FINAL ANALYSIS and guess what next horse I was on is Buywise.

  23. Seven Towers says:

    Venetia just keeps banging them in!

  24. admin says:

    Please bring this thread to a close. New thread now open

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