Grand National 2018: Early thoughts

One For Arthur was an impressive winner of the 2017 Grand National but will have to overcome a likely hefty rise in the weights if he is to become the first horse since Red Rum to defend his crown in 2018.

Do you think he can do it? Or can one of the beaten horses comeback and take next year’s race? Cause Of Causes would almost certainly be campaigned with Aintree in mind next year and the third horse, Saint Are, looks set to be running in hunter chases next year so could he finally win the Grand National. Could Blaklion find the extra stamina he seems to need with another year on his back?

Some of the horses that failed to get round this such as The Young Master, Vicente, Saphir Du Rheu and Ucello Conti could also train again in 2018. Could any of them have a say in next year’s finish?

The bookies are putting forward the likes of Minella Rocco, Don Poli, Noble Endeavour and Our Duke as the horses likely to be involved for the first time in 2018.

Please add your early thoughts and selections for 2018 to this thread.

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1,400 Responses to Grand National 2018: Early thoughts

  1. Mike N says:

    he’s 149 with 13 chase runs.

  2. ESB says:

    Todays press release from Aintree slips this in at the bottom:

    “On Tuesday, February 13, Racenews will send an embargoed release at 11am with reaction to the Randox Health Grand National weights from Phil Smith, John Baker (Regional Director North West, The Jockey Club) and a couple of trainers. This will have a STRICT EMBARGO FOR PUBLICATION of 7.30pm on Tuesday, February 13, when the Randox Health Grand National weights are made public”

  3. Corbiere says:

    Sound like the bookies will have us by the short & curlies !
    Still from 11am onwards we will start to glean what they think has been weighted well by prices on oddschecker starting to fall. Bet my bottom dollar anything with a high weight allocated, the price won’t go the other way.

  4. Corbiere says:

    My advice is if you fancy something that is currently a big price and you feel reasonably certain they are targetting GN and will get in weights, get on tomorrow before 11am.

  5. Corbiere says:

    Wonder if news is already leaking or somebody knows what pricewise is selecting.
    Just been on oddschecker and 4 horses are being backed.
    Gold Present
    Cause of Causes
    Abolitionist
    Seeyouatmidnight
    Check it out.

  6. daniel edwards says:

    Sorry thought I saw him on 147 for kempton

    Whatever he is he’ll run off it there I guess

  7. Mike N says:

    Just read an article published last week whereby Nicholls said that As De Mee was a definite and some of the rest might go other ways. So nothing definite about Warriors Tale at the moment.

  8. Corbiere says:

    Bristol De Mai to miss Gold Cup and GN and head for the Bowl at Aintree instead.

  9. daniel edwards says:

    Who wants a guess at

    Topweight (horse and mark)
    Blaklion weight
    Total Recall weight
    Tiger Roll weight

    Plus any other mystery ones you fancy

  10. Mike N says:

    We’ve been doing that for the last fortnight ;)
    Rather just wait and see now.

  11. miinnehoma says:

    Nicholls said that – get away.

    miinnehoma says:
    February 9, 2018 at 1:16 am

    from -THE GUARDIAN- by Chris Cook -

    Nicholls entered six in the Grand National this week and I asked if he had any of them in mind as a possible mount for Frost. “She rode Silsol in the Welsh National, she’s ridden Warrior’s Tale,” he said. “She’ll ride any of them if we need to. But I looked at those entries and thought a lot of them might go other ways.

    VICENTE – might be worth keeping for the Scottish National because he’s so good there and I’m not convinced about him round Aintree.”

    AS DE MEE – is the one of Nicholls’s six who is definitely bound for the Aintree race.

    But, as he pointed out, Sean Bowen is pretty well established as that one’s regular rider. So it might end up Nicholls doesn’t have a ride for Frost in the National. “I’m sure she’ll get a ride for somebody,” he added.
    ********************************
    I must stop using invisible ink.

  12. daniel edwards says:

    And I had quoted that article before you too!

  13. Corbiere says:

    C’mon now boys, be nice. nerves kicking in.
    Anybody having a last minute punt before weights out.
    I have taken the 50/1 on The Dutchman,seems to big a price for a possible player, just feel he’s had a good win this season, likely to get a lowish weight in the 40, not certain, but likely to get in on the day. Due to have a run in one of big Trials in next fortnight.
    Also think quite a few prices will go down after weights out.

  14. kj says:

    I think the Dutchman is a good one.

    Had I forgotten Big Fella Thanks was put down!? read something last night written by Chris Cook actually ;) in late October about his death after being 15yr old fav at cheltenham in May. Feels like news to me or I’ve wiped it.. just looking at RP site has it as ‘retired at home expecting recovery’ as their final article. Nothing on Tom Georges social media, except that lovely post GN photo of him and Saint Are chilling and gleaming 2015.
    Did racing in general really keep it to themselves all that time, cause it doesn’t help. Welfare groups when it ‘emerged’ (presumably october) up in arms it was age related. Most likely was completely random whatever age, RP article says BFT felt too well was showing off and basically overjumped. Don’t think there is any proof age is increased risk, only increased heartache for a grand older warrior. Plenty break something in retirement. Everyone would be gutted about it, the horse still loved to race, they continued, he had a great twilight career, just a shame he didn’t get his retirement or a bit of an honest update and obituary. RIP Big Fella.

  15. Seven Towers says:

    Chris Cook tried to make an issue out of older horses running writing that we must have a ‘debate’ about ‘older’ horses running and he spoke about this on attheraces too during the Sunday Forum. He did this just before two 13 year olds fought out the finish in the Welsh National making him look like the d!ckweed that he really is. Can’t stand the bloke. Apart from that I’ve got nothing against him.

  16. Seven Towers says:

    And that ‘thing’ on his top lip really winds me up too.

  17. Mike N says:

    Joe Tizzard wasn’t committing to The Dutchman for the national when asked yesterday. Said he would see, talk to the owners, etc.

  18. kj says:

    Sorry are we talking moustaches? ;) I don’t exactly follow/stalk him hehee.
    Plenty of 7,8 and even 9 yr olds to be more worried about jumping around, then you look at the worry jumps horses GN wise over the yrs, oh my god! I don’t know but surely a high % of the dodgy entrants pre 2012/13 caused or suffered injury or fatalities in the race or looked like they might. Frankly I take the tried and tested view, if a horse is still fit and alive and jumping aged 12-15 it says something about safety right there!
    A horse feeling too well in itself can be a problem whatever age, but thats horses, biggest reason to have a proper jockey that. Raz worries me not cause he is 13 but cause he seems more and more confident and keen at the start. He fell first fence beginning of season dashing there, wish Ger hadn’t got himself in a mess.

  19. Seven Towers says:

    2016/17

    Welsh National – Native River – 6 years old
    Edinburgh National – Dancing Shadow – 8 years old
    Grand National Trial Punchestown – Baie Des Iles – 6 years old
    Eider Chase – Mysteree – 9 years old
    Midlands National – Chase The Spud – 9 years old
    Grand National – One For Arthur – 8 years old
    Scottish National – Vicente – 8 years old
    Irish National – Our Duke – 7 years old

    2017/18 thus far

    Welsh National – Raz De Maree – 13 years old
    Edinburgh National – Full Jack – 11 years old
    Grand National Trial Punchestown – Folsom Blue – 11 years old

  20. Mike N says:

    Tom Segal has backed Gold Present so that’s one you can cross off your list. ;)

  21. kj says:

    Can forget about the matured but not too old current 10yr olds then, looks like could be keeping a few oldies on next couple of seasons.

  22. Lescargot says:

    Just checked the bet365 site, no movement out or in on anything as far as I can tell.

  23. Corbiere says:

    Blaklion drifted 2 points from 10/1 to 12/1 on Betfair. Also approx 7 outsiders drifted.

  24. Lescargot says:

    Blaklion on betfair exchange showing at 19/2.

  25. daniel edwards says:

    I am going to take a wild guess that top weight has a mark of 165

    Who is that most likely to be?

    Blaklion? Definitely Red? Somebody else?

  26. daniel edwards says:

    And I’m also going to guess Last Samurai is off 159, so 11 stone 4

  27. Pollyowls says:

    I’m guessing that Tinkerman Smith will want to make sure all those rated 140 are in the handicap proper.
    So that means top weight will be no more than 164…
    My guess would be at least two of Defintly Red, Blaklion & Edwulf as joint top weights… not long to wait!!

  28. Pollyowls says:

    I’m guessing that Tinkerman Smith will want to make sure all those rated 140 are in the handicap proper.
    So that means top weight will be no more than 164…
    My guess would be at least two of Defintly Red, Blaklion & Edwulf as joint top weights… not long to wait!!

  29. Corbiere says:

    Anybody interested in Cheltenham btting please take a look at Special Offer on Cheltenham Festival Blog in ten minutes, I will post right after this post.

  30. marko says:

    PP going 6 places already

  31. kj says:

    Sure…Definately or Blak or indeed both! and maybe Road to Respect.
    If I was Phil I would give top weight as a gift to all the maroons you know for the crack. No, jockeys carrying slightly oversized cabin luggage ;) Outlander could be tantrum touch paper.

    11-4 is what I guessed months ago would be an annoying figure for TLS to run with Daniel, seems too tough and thats if he doesn’t have a meltdown again, considering that side of it I’d give him a proper chance and 11-2. Backing something with 11-2 or more still something to consider seriously in terms of winning. Anything over 11-4 more so. I think 3 of front 5 will be 140s horses, quite likely the winner.

    What time is time!?

  32. marko says:

    Chancing a Total recall 16/1 ( 6pl ) & Killutough Vic (GC) ew double

  33. kj says:

    Good luck with that Marko, behind you in spirit there ;)
    apologies re previous post, too many Roads!… wearing maroon, not entered lol

  34. kj says:

    looked back..public weights announcement is 1930.

  35. mike campo says:

    Betfred, totesport & Bet365 reducing prices on several horses this afternoon.
    Suggests their acting on the advanced ‘embargoed’ information which is meant to be forbidden.
    Outrageous that bookmakers are openly afforded such an advantage over punters.
    What’s the justification for it ?

  36. Corbiere says:

    Marko PP 6 places is 1/5 odds
    Lads now 5 places 1/4 odds

  37. Corbiere says:

    Presume bookies must know weights by now, there is a lot of movement on oddschecker now.
    Loads of the big outsiders drifting, especially with Betfred. Fred must have insider information.
    Also noticeable with Betfair Blaklion, Definitly Red, The Last Samuri & Minella Rocco all drifting a little.
    Probably top 4 in weights.

  38. Corbiere says:

    Mike big boys lining their pockets as usual, that’s the justification. As we all learn the hard way in life, it’s not what you know but who you know that gets you on in life.

  39. kj says:

    Its the new world dark order. Everyone in a position of power under a veneer of rules of the realm openly breaking them, it seems to be the law! its like France, haha, if law is mentioned it really means everyone is flouting it! All these companies are on the take, liars and cheats just like government example hey. I saw upto about a wk ago on oddchecker one company was taking money for Raz de Mee ;) seriously no shame.
    You would expect that trying to hold onto information released hours ago, would be open to abuse, with shouts of embargoed information not having any value to it. No roads to respect ;)

  40. billymag says:

    Believe it or not ive got the weights anyone you want to know in particular?

  41. Seven Towers says:

    Paul Nicholls?

  42. Mike N says:

    Totally Recall and Ucello Conti ratings and weight please billymag

  43. billymag says:

    Total Recall 11-01 156
    Ucello Conti 10-06 147

  44. Mike N says:

    Happy with that :)

  45. Lescargot says:

    Whats Blaklion on please Billymag?

  46. billymag says:

    Blaklion 11-06 161

  47. Lescargot says:

    Cheers not too bad.

  48. Seven Towers says:

    Cause Of Causes and Noble Endeavor

  49. Seven Towers says:

    If only because Elliott’s carrots are laced with slightly superior ingredients than Mullins at the moment

  50. kj says:

    Ohhhh Billy. Raz, Rocco and Go Conquer?
    any suited to the task weight for poor little Vintage clouds?

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