Grand National 2018: Early thoughts

One For Arthur was an impressive winner of the 2017 Grand National but will have to overcome a likely hefty rise in the weights if he is to become the first horse since Red Rum to defend his crown in 2018.

Do you think he can do it? Or can one of the beaten horses comeback and take next year’s race? Cause Of Causes would almost certainly be campaigned with Aintree in mind next year and the third horse, Saint Are, looks set to be running in hunter chases next year so could he finally win the Grand National. Could Blaklion find the extra stamina he seems to need with another year on his back?

Some of the horses that failed to get round this such as The Young Master, Vicente, Saphir Du Rheu and Ucello Conti could also train again in 2018. Could any of them have a say in next year’s finish?

The bookies are putting forward the likes of Minella Rocco, Don Poli, Noble Endeavour and Our Duke as the horses likely to be involved for the first time in 2018.

Please add your early thoughts and selections for 2018 to this thread.

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101 Responses to Grand National 2018: Early thoughts

  1. Supersub says:

    I’ll kick-off the thoughts for next year by asking how we think One For Arthur will get on next year considering how easily he ended up winning Saturday’s race?

    Clearly it will be tough as he won off a mark of 148 on Saturday and given the facile nature of the victory, he is going to be put up 14-16lbs if we’re using TLS as a guide. He went up 12lbs for finishing second last year, so I suspect OFA will be rated around 165 next year and will almost certainly carry top weight.

    He defied a rise of 11lbs from Warwick at the weekend and absolutely hacked up so he clearly had plenty in hand. It would be some feat if he could do it and what a great story that would be.

    I felt quite optimistic about Many Clouds chances of becoming a duel winner as he carried 11-09 to victory so could only carry one extra pound on his back the following year no matter what Phil did with his rating. OFA carried 10-11 on Saturday so is likely to carry an extra 13lbs on his back next year. It is hard to carry the same optimism forward even though he was an easier and more impressive winner than MC.

    It will certainly be interesting to see how he is campaigned next season. Given the speed and class he showed, as well as his ability to handle a decent surface at Class 1 level, you would have to say that he wouldn’t look out of place in a Gold Cup. That said, if their priority is to try and win the National again next year then Cheltenham would not be the best route to take.

  2. pablo says:

    To continue the chat from the previous thread…

    I think Daniel’s point is well made…
    “Some solid stats for you there if you can accept that you won’t get the winner every year but in the long run it will do you pretty darn well…”

    Lower the expectations a little and there might be a really strong profile that gets the winner more often than not from very few runners – and at decent prices!

    Trying to retro-fit a system to cover every single winner of the past 10 or 20 GNs is just asking for trouble isn’t it?

  3. daniel edwards says:

    In a word… I think so yes

  4. Lucky Vane says:

    Can One For Arthur become a dual winner :?

    “Supersub says:
    April 11, 2017 at 4:14 pm
    I felt quite optimistic about Many Clouds chances of becoming a duel winner as he carried 11-09 to victory so could only carry one extra pound on his back the following year no matter what Phil did with his rating. OFA carried 10-11 on Saturday so is likely to carry an extra 13lbs on his back next year. It is hard to carry the same optimism forward even though he was an easier and more impressive winner than MC.”

    If he does it won’t be the first time, may I remind you that Red Rum had 23 pounds more in 74 than his victory in 73, which Sir Peter O Sullivan’s commentary at the time points out. Of course it’s only my opinion that out of his three wins, the 74 win was the best. He went on to win the Scottish National that year and is the only horse to win both Nationals in the same season. Ginger was quite keen on the Whitbread at Sandown but according to him said the mrs wasn’t happy about it. Rummy had beaten the first past the post of the Whitbread that year when winning the Scottish National.

    The thing about One For Arthur was he wasn’t considered a national type by me anyway until that Warwick win, although the may have been an inkling with his Becher’s run. His Warwick run was first time with a tongue strap, and the National was his second.

    One question open to anyone, if you don’t use stats to find your winner , then how do you find them?

    From Grand National 2017 Declaration thread

    daniel edwards says:
    April 11, 2017 at 3:04 pm
    I have been looking at the system I have for trying to find the “perfect” horse each year and what returns that would make over the past 8 years (which is all the data I have at the minute).

    To recap, it selects horses which;

    1. Have placed in a C1 chase over 27f or more;

    2. Are aged 8-11;

    3. Have run in 4 or more chases that season;

    4. Have won a chase over 3 miles or more;

    5. Have a post weights run; and

    6. Have 9-17 chase runs.

    In the past 8 years it has thrown up 22 horses (so less than 3 a year on average) as follows:

    2010 – 2 horses

    2011 – 1 horse

    2012 – 2

    2013 – 2

    2014 – 4

    2015 – 6

    2016 – 3

    2017 – 2

    In those years it has produced the following results (where placed means a top 4 finish – there is at least one perfect horse that finished 5th too which would get you paid e/w most places, but I’ve stuck with 4 places for the sake of ease)

    2010 – Winner

    2011 – Placed

    2012 – Placed

    2013 – Placed

    2014 – Winner

    2015 – Winner AND placed

    2016 – Nothing

    2017 – Placed

    If you had £10 e/w on every horse that met the system in that time period, you would have generated the following returns/profits (based on the final SPs, which are of course subject to some upward or downward flux depending on when you back, who with etc.)

    2010 – £40 staked, returns £145 (£105 PROFIT)

    2011 – £20 staked, returns £32.50 (£12.50 PROFIT)

    2012 – £40 staked, returns £50 (£10 PROFIT)

    2013 – £40 staked, returns £35 (£5 LOSS)

    2014 – £80 staked, returns £332.50 (£252.50 PROFIT)

    2015 – £120 staked, returns £442.50 (£322.50 PROFIT)

    2016 – £60 staked, returns £0 (£60 LOSS)

    2017 – £40 staked, returns £50 (£10 PROFIT)

    Totals – £440 staked – £1087.50 returned – £647.50 Profit

    (Yearly Average – £55 staked – £136 returned – £81 Profit)

    So basically, in the years where you get one placed, you roughly break even. Where you get the winner, you are quids in (without needing to back heaps of horses) and where you get nothing (unsurprisingly) you lose out (but for small amounts).

    Challenge for the summer – Can anybody else devise a system using entirely objective stats that can better those returns to level stakes?

    I hope so!

    I not sure what Supersubs wants but I think these are fantastic stats. Every year I think I will develop a system to try and help me at least have a decent chance of picking the winner. I think 3 out of 8 is quite realistic. My record is three in a decade. The 1980′s had Grittar, Hallo Dandy & West Tip. This present decade had Many Clouds, Rule The World & One For Arthur, backed after his Warwick win. Sadly I had more bets than I said I would.

    I’m going to try and develop a system over the year to try and give me the winner barring flukes.

    Getting back to One For Arthur, how many of us could predict he would have won a National a year out?

  5. daniel edwards says:

    Not one, even if you gave people 50 guesses!

  6. pablo says:

    This race at the Scottish GN meeting is worth looking out for. A top two finish has been desirable in years gone by – OFA was well beaten last year so perhaps it’s the taking part in some of these races that counts towards the experience but also gives a clue about what the trainers think of their charges’ long-term prospects.

    “pablo
    Submitted on 2016/04/14 at 11:21 am
    Fine Rightly was pulled out of the Novices’ Handicap Chase last April at Ayr due to the drying ground.

    Incidentally that renewal of the Novices’ Handicap Chase one again showed what a good pointer it is to Nationals – not always the winner of the race.

    2nd The Last Samuri – 2nd in GN
    1st Merigo – 2x Scottish GN
    2nd Ballabriggs (to Merigo) – won GN
    1st Aurora’s Encore – 1 x GN, 2nd in Scottish GN (to Merigo!)
    Also won by On His Own – 2 x Thyestes etc.

    This year’s entries – could be a GN winner lurking in there…

    1 113145 Vicente32 7 11-8 Paul Nicholls38 146 135 164
    2 2P-151 Vivaldi Collonges63 7 11-5 Paul Nicholls38 143 60 160
    3 9221U Doctor Harper30 8 11-3 David Pipe48 141 122 158
    4 1-2413 Double Shuffle32 6 11-3 Tom George50 141 104 156
    5 14410 Killala Quay32 9 11-1 Charlie Longsdon42 139 133 164
    6 5-1U1U Javert32 7 11-1 Emma Lavelle50 139 134 158
    7 644111 Berea Boru19 8 11-0 Peter Bowen44 138 101 159
    8 2122F Definitly Red32 7 10-13 Brian Ellison Danny Cook 137 128 165
    9 0-1198 On Tour32 8 10-13 Evan Williams23 137 129 160
    10 1-153P Capard King30 7 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill48 136 118 156
    11 1-3221 Three Faces West25 8 10-11 Philip Hobbs46 135 128 156
    12 3121P Subtle Grey28 7 10-11 Donald McCain37 135 110 161
    13 1123P1 Waldorf Salad7 8 10-11 Venetia Williams28 135 136 157
    14 2721FP Cultram Abbey28 9 10-8 Nicky Richards43 132 72 160
    15 441383 Cadoudoff15 6 10-6 Charlie Longsdon42 130 149 159
    16 21F323 Smooth Stepper28 7 10-5 Sue Smith20 129 131 158
    17 133524 One For Arthur35 7 10-5 Lucinda Russell36 Peter Buchanan 129 133 165
    18 122U1U Sandy Beach19 6 10-3 Colin Tizzard90 127 145 156
    19 1-1263 7Top Billing21 7 10-3 Nicky Richards43 Ryan Day5 127 127 155
    20 332311 6Jennys Surprise36 8 10-3 Fergal O´Brien29 127 106 157
    21 12P3P5 5Wizards Bridge25 7 10-3 Colin Tizzard90 127 128 161
    22 6/2221 4Kilbree Chief47 8 10-1 Lucinda Russell36 Peter Buchanan 125 124 156
    23 61-412 3Midnight Monty19 6 9-11 Keith Reveley 121 116 148
    24 2-F134 2Wild Bill49 7 9-11 Evan Williams23 121 118 154
    25 P/023- 1Wicklow Gold521 8 9-2 N W Alexander40 112 — —
    26 1115P1 Kilfinichen Bay14 8 Charlie Longsdon42 140 121 146
    27 21-8P3 Wicked Spice78 7 Nicky Richards43 124 47 98″

  7. Supersub says:

    I think my comment has been misinterpreted as a criticism from the other thread where I said it ‘only’ found 3/8 winners. I was not being critical because any system that provides a consistent profit is a good one.

    I’ve been used to a system that did shortlist the winner every year until 2013. I still had a mediocre record of backing the winner because I didn’t back every horse on the list because backing eight or nine is too many.

    I fell down when deciding which three or four horses to back on the list when I had to apply form, going preferences and personal opinion.

    I know we are not going to return to the good old days and I do think daniel’s system is a great place to start as I said on the other thread because it does provide a genuine shortlist.

    I apologise if my comment appeared critical and just want to clarify that was not what I meant.

  8. Lucky Vane says:

    Thing about stats that fail, is to question why they failed and examine it. If the principal of the system is sound, I would be inclined to keep it. Not every stat will have a 100% record. Take the 8 to 12 year old , which I dropped in the trends published by Darren, it’s stood since 1940, but just like the french bred which stood for nearly a century something will come along and break it. When it does I think we need to examine why ? Is the horse in question setting a new trend, or is it exceptional, or is it a fluke.

    In 2001 when Red Marauder won, I think it was one of those years that anything could have won because it was a mud bath and the race turned out to be a question of survival. It was just plain luck that he might have fitted any trends at the time.

  9. daniel edwards says:

    Don’t worry Supersub, I knew what you meant

    :)

    As you say, you can have a system that gives you lots of horses, and more chance of getting winner, or a smaller number and less chance

  10. daniel edwards says:

    So you found the winner a year ago pablo!?!

    5 entrants in this year’s GN I’m that list

    Will be watching this year’s race case carefully!

  11. pablo says:

    Hardly found him – he was one of plenty of entrants!

  12. daniel edwards says:

    Slap yourself on the back and claim credit with a huge amount of hindsight Pablo – that’s what most would do!!

    ;)

  13. daniel edwards says:

    Re: Supersub’s stat about winners nearly always having placed in their previous 4 chases, my gut instinct, having thought on it, is that it is a bit like the “top 3 in the season” stat.

    My research showed that top 3 in the season stat was in fact a total red herring – the horses who didn’t meet that stat were few and far between, and actually they performed pretty much as you would expect, with the odd place (and even the odd winner) every now and then.

    This variation on that stat looks preferable in some respect; rather than giving the horse the benefit of a whole season to put in just one good run, you want them to have done it in the past 4 runs. That seems good.

    The slight problem is though with horses who only run, say, twice a year, actually have the benefit of 2 years or thereabouts to meet the stat!

    Also, I am not sure you can get away from being subjective with form, rather than simply looking at the numbers. What about a horse who in their last 4 runs has had 4th place finishes in races like the Hennessy, and/or another competitive handicap, and have then fallen early doors in another one, and then have run in a 2m4f hurdle race, for instance? They could easily not meet the stat, but you couldn’t necessarily say they weren’t in form. Conversely you could have one who has finished 3rd in a race where only 3 finished, then run like a drain in his other 3 recent races, yet he would meet the stat.

    Anyway, I’ll crunch the numbers and see how the stat holds up.

    In 2017, 23 had 5 horses who failed to meet Supersub’s stat. None of them finished, which seems positive.

    BUT in 2013 (the only other year I have looked at so far) we had 7 runners, two of which placed.

    I’ll need to do (at least) years 2014 to 2016 to see what the numbers say though.

    Stay tuned….

  14. daniel edwards says:

    Vics Canvas was placed last year and he didn’t meet the stat.

    Think those 3 (Aurora’s Encore, Oscar Time, Vics Canvas) are the only 3 in the last 5 years to do it.

    Don’t know how many runners there have been yet, but for that performance to be “par” there would need to have been about 6 runners a year that fail to meet this stat.

    If the numbers from 2017 and 2013 hold up that would be about right. Need to check though.

  15. daniel edwards says:

    Which recent winners do people think had the worst form (or the worst piece of best form if you like) in the season if their victory at Aintree?

    And is there a way we can work that into a stat?

    My gut feeling is the answer is ‘probably not’ but I’d love to find out!

  16. daniel edwards says:

    PDR or Auroras Encore maybe?

  17. daniel edwards says:

    Don’t Push It failed to meet Supersub’s stat the year he was third

    So I’ve got 4 placed in 8 years not meeting the stat. For that to be right we would want about 40 runners in those 8 years to have not met it, so about 5 a year

  18. Pollyowls says:

    Daniel,
    Don’t think you have to look too far back for that…
    Best form that season – 2015 Many Clouds, winning the Hennessy
    Worst form that season – 2013 Aurora’s Encore, had done very little (4th in Rowland Meyrick, 5th in Classic Chase)
    Not sure how you would quantify PDR’s close up 3rd in the Pertemps Final… part of the debate over hurdles form

  19. Pollyowls says:

    Pollyowls – Submitted on 2017/04/10 at 2:57 pm
    Interesting to note… there was much discussion on here before the race about how relevant form LTO is…
    This year’s top 6 LTO form was… 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 1st…
    Maybe it’s more relevant than we thought..?

    Pollyowls – Submitted on 2017/04/10 at 3:22 pm
    To open up that debate a little bit, since the changes were made to the National after 2012, the LTO form of the top 6 can be summarised as follows:
    2017: 1,1,2,2,4,1
    2016: 4,1,L,5,2,3
    2015: 6,1,0,5,1,2
    2014: 3,1,6,P,2,4
    2013: 5,2,0,0,3,0
    In summary: 30 placings – 7 x 1st, 6 x 2nd, 3 x 3rd, 3 x 4th – 19 placed in first four, only 1 DNF

    My conclusion would be that form LTO is certainly more desirable than not…
    _________________________________________________________________

    Daniel,
    Just re-posted these as I thought they might be relevant to the form debate..

  20. daniel edwards says:

    Thanks, very relevant I think

    Now we just need to see what the LTO form of all the runners was!

    Re Auroras Encore, he was beaten a heck of a long way in those races too.

    Not sure that helps us much from a stats perspective. It is just too subjective

  21. Pollyowls says:

    Looking at those figures again, it’s making me think that recent form is becoming more relevant in recent times than it used to be…

    The other issue we need to look at are the races that we include in Class C1 form. I did a list in January that we worked to, which included these races:-
    Summer Cup (Uttoxeter), BetVictor H’cap (Chelt-Open), Hennessy GC (Newbury), Becher Chase (Aintree), December H’cap (Chelt-Dec), Welsh GN (Chepstow), Classic Chase (Warwick), GN Trial Chase (Haydock), National Hunt Chase (Chelt-Fest), Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase (Chelt-Fest), Cheltenham Gold Cup, Midlands GN (Uttoxeter), Grand National, Scottish GN (Ayr), Bet365 GC (Sandown)
    However, several of those are only 26f or 26.5f races now – should they be in or not…?

    I also identified the 27f+ races in Ireland…
    Cork National – Cork: 28f, early Nov; Porterstown Chase – Fairyhouse: 29f early Dec; Grand National Trial – Punchestown: 30f, end Jan; Ulster National – Downpatrick: 28f, mid-March; Irish Grand National – Fairyhouse: 29f, Easter Monday; Madra Foods Chase – Punchestown Festival: 30f, late April
    However, I believe the only Grade A race is the Irish GN – not sure if we should be including anything else

    If we can agree on what to include, that would give us a better starting point,…

  22. harjake says:

    As a newcomer, I am a complete amateur compared to most of you on this site. And I love the discussion taking place here. I for one will be using Daniel’s system next year. Unfortunately I have a tendency to back a few more horses so would probably dilute the returns.

    I was going back through my notes to see what worked and what didn’t and actually found a list of 9 horses which I made and those 9 horses finished 1,2,3,5,7,10,13,14, F. (Technically when I made the list there were eleven horses but Pendra and Romford didn’t run). Because I am an amateur and don’t have the detailed stats (yet) my source for this list was your very own Grand National Form tab on the Grand National Guide. I just went back to try to recreate my inputs but I think it’s been changed so I can’t do it. But I think it was as simple as Chase Wins over 3 miles at least one, Chase Runs at least 10, Age 8-11, LTO less than 90 days, weight less than 11 stone. Falls as per the preset. Unfortunately for me, I ruled out One For Arthur because of the predicted going, (as I did with Houblon and Thunder)!

    And for those that like spooky, when I go back to the Runners tab now, the first four names are Blaklion, Minella Rocco, One for Arthur and Cause of Causes. (I think that’s a version of the site pre weights).

    Minella for 2018 anyone?

  23. Pollyowls says:

    BHA/IHA revised ratings following Aintree:
    One For Arthur – up 8 to 156
    Cause Of Causes – up 4 to 152
    Blakion – unchanged at 156
    Saint Are – unchanged at 147
    Tea For Two – up 8 to 166
    Cue Card – down 1 to 169
    Smad Place – down 2 to 159
    Bristol De Mai – down 2 to 160
    Might Bite – unchanged at 161
    Whisper – up 2 at 157

  24. daniel edwards says:

    Any chance of the figures for the first 4 home in 2010 to 2012 Pollyowls

    ?

  25. daniel edwards says:

    ‘only’ 8lb for the winner!

    Makes next year interesting

    Very interesting

  26. daniel edwards says:

    Don’t worry Pollyowls, got it now

  27. Pollyowls says:

    Daniel… first six in GN 2010 to 2012 – LTO form

    2012: 2, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4
    2011: 2, 3, 0, 3, 0, 1
    2010: P, 2, P, 1, 0, 3

  28. Pollyowls says:

    2010 to 2012 LTO form:
    18 placings – 4 x 1st, 3 x 2nd, 5 x 3rd, 1 x 4th –
    13 had placings in first four – 2 x DNF

    Overall, from 2010
    48 placings – 11 x 1st, 9 x 2nd, 8 x 3rd, 4 x 4th – 32 placed in first four (67%)
    Only 3 x DNF

    A bit more of an exercise to go through the entire field in each race – but it’s Easter weekend, what else would I be doing…??!!

  29. daniel edwards says:

    I’ve done 2015 to 2017 but if you can manage 13 and 14 that should give us a decent average

  30. Pollyowls says:

    LTO form
    2013 – 7 x 1st, 5 x 2nd, 4 x 3rd, 3 x 4th,
    19 placed, 16 unplaced, 5 DNF

    2014 – 5 x 1st, 4 x 2nd, 6 x 3rd, 5 x 4th
    20 placed, 12 unplaced, 8 DNF

  31. daniel edwards says:

    Will post in full when I get a chance but it looks like a strong stat to me. Definite preference for a top 3 LTO and 2st or 3nd even better

    Will be interested to see how many of my 22 perfect horses in the last 8 years it gets rid of!

  32. pablo says:

    Too subjective for stats but say Phil has already overdone it on ratings for many of these then the progressive horses that win to get in the race and those that do well after weights out might have the edge anyway – i.e. handicapper hasn’t got to the bottom of the progressive types and trainers have held back on their horses until after weights out to start to show their true form

    All of which should reinforce the last time out success

    A horse like Auroras off 137 is unlikely in the foreseeable future given the way things are now – unless Phil retires???

  33. Corbiere says:

    Guys and Gals you are doing an amazing amount of work on here, thank you all.
    I watch and read all your posts with interest.
    I am thinking for the first time ever of doing a stats system.
    I will look back at the winners for the last few years since fences altered.
    Can anybody remind me which was the first year after Beecher’s Brook etc were altered ?
    Then I will concoct a system and let you know, in time.

  34. pablo says:

    Corbs, after Neptune (2012) so from Auroras onwards (2013 onwards)

  35. daniel edwards says:

    So by far the strongest stat I have is the 27f plus C1 chase place

    Those for this year were

    The Last Samurai
    Blaklion
    The Young Master
    Cause of Causes
    Vieux Lion Rouge

    Houblon Des Obeaux
    One for Arthur
    Bishops Road
    Lord Windemere
    Saint Are

    Vicente
    Just a Par
    Measureofmydreams
    Raz De Maree
    Rogue Angel

    Thunder & Roses
    Goodtoknow

    Age was my second best stat. 8 to 11 years old. So scrub Raz from that list.

    How many others could we scratch for not being top 3 last time out?

    The Young Master
    Houblon Des Obeaux
    Lord Windemere
    Vicente
    Just a Par
    Measureofmydreams

    …. Off the top of my head

    Which others?

  36. daniel edwards says:

    Scratch the bottom three on that list too

    So just those 3 stats leave you with

    The Last Samurai
    Blaklion
    Cause of Causes
    Vieux Lion Rouge
    One for Arthur
    Bishops Road
    Saint Are

    7 horses, first 4 home.

    Wont be that good in other years I’m sure but will have a look

  37. pablo says:

    Just A Par – aged 10, last time out winner, 1st and 2nd in Whitbread (Sandown Gold Cup)

  38. daniel edwards says:

    Of those 7, 4 were in my sweet spot of 9 to 17 chase runs. This included the winner and 4th

    So 4 horses there getting 2 placed, including the winner, from the 4 strongest stats I can find

    Will compare with other years

  39. daniel edwards says:

    Apologies

    Just a Par not in the chase run sweet spot.

    So still 4 from this year

    Better than my previous system I think. Less stats being applied and less of the less reliable ones

  40. Seven Towers says:

    daniel edwards says:

    April 12, 2017 at 7:32 am

    Slap yourself on the back and claim credit with a huge amount of hindsight Pablo – that’s what most would do!!

    ——————————————————————————————————————

    Daniel! How could you? And naming no names.

    Never let it be said that ‘creeping determinism’ is not the birth mother of Grand National statistics!

  41. Seven Towers says:

    Remember that this year’s winner also had a ‘u’ in its name. That’s now 5 out of 5 since the changes. There it was, between the ‘h’ and the ‘r’. Don’t know how I missed it. It was the 30th day of wearing the then current set of lenses, so that may well have been a contributing factor. Since changing to my new pair, I can see that damn ‘u’ clear as day now.

  42. Seven Towers says:

    I am definitely having Minella For-U and The T-U-llow Tank on side again next year, just in case.

  43. Seven Towers says:

    And did you see that the owner of Noble Endeavor has ruined his horses chances of winning the GN? Should have stuck the ‘u’ back in there.

  44. Pollyowls says:

    Seven,
    On those grounds, C-U-At Midnight should be a certainty!!! :-)

  45. Seven Towers says:

    Well, roughly 15% of Our Duke’s name contains the blessed things. Talk about flaunting it.

  46. Corbiere says:

    Daniel re. your 2.42pm post of those 7 I would have scratched TLS for being Top weight, Rummy last to do it.
    Also personally Bishops Road, clearly looking at his form he was NOT LIKELY to like the ground we got.
    Leaving the other 5 very interesting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 6th
    Well I for one will be applying those stats next year.

  47. Corbiere says:

    My early thoughts fancies for next year
    With a run
    Mysteree – Fancy to do well in Scottish GN ?
    Our Duke – Will look good after winning Irish GN ?
    Tiger Roll – Does he not qualify already, won 4 miler ?
    Also certain Saint Are will give it another go.
    Cause of Causes ?
    Blaklion ?
    Definitly Red ? (most unlucky horse this year, had no chance with The Young Master falling right in front of him, when he was going very well)
    One For Arthur – Will almost certainly be handicapped out of it, but we’ll see.
    Double Shuffle – A year older maybe ?

  48. Pollyowls says:

    Yes, I’ve seen people talking about Our Duke. … the poor thing’s only run 3 times over fences, and he’s already being tipped up as a National winner!! Give the lad a chance…

  49. Corbiere says:

    Yikes Cause of Causes got a U in name as well, scary !!!!!

  50. Seven Towers says:

    Haymount will be aimed at it I am sure. Will be interesting to see if Missed Approach can back up that NH Chase run too. Minella Foru has looked like a stayer and winning that large field handicap chase has been a good stepping stone for other Irish horses. Abolitionist has been making waves and shapes like further could suit and The Tullow Tank is a half brother to Many Clouds and is a horse I have liked from day one. Noble endeavour and Singlefarmpayment will surely be going the GN route and Bowen will probably try and aim Minella Daddy at it but does he go that way round quite as well? Sizing Codelco will surely be aimed at it but has that win scuppered any chance he had? And whoever wins the Scottish I suppose. Heist is a horse I do like for Griffin, who generally does well with his raiders. With a win somewhere he could get in the race. Plenty to ponder anyway.

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