Grand National 2018: Early thoughts

One For Arthur was an impressive winner of the 2017 Grand National but will have to overcome a likely hefty rise in the weights if he is to become the first horse since Red Rum to defend his crown in 2018.

Do you think he can do it? Or can one of the beaten horses comeback and take next year’s race? Cause Of Causes would almost certainly be campaigned with Aintree in mind next year and the third horse, Saint Are, looks set to be running in hunter chases next year so could he finally win the Grand National. Could Blaklion find the extra stamina he seems to need with another year on his back?

Some of the horses that failed to get round this such as The Young Master, Vicente, Saphir Du Rheu and Ucello Conti could also train again in 2018. Could any of them have a say in next year’s finish?

The bookies are putting forward the likes of Minella Rocco, Don Poli, Noble Endeavour and Our Duke as the horses likely to be involved for the first time in 2018.

Please add your early thoughts and selections for 2018 to this thread.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

217 Responses to Grand National 2018: Early thoughts

  1. hallio1 says:

    Sorry if this has already been posted but this is what Colin Tizzard said about Native River in his RP stable tour re the National…

    Native River
    7g Indian River – Native Mo
    Brocade Racing
    1/21113-
    RPR 171 OR 166
    Jarred himself a little bit in the Gold Cup, came back with a bit of ligament trouble, so he’s been late coming back in and is just cantering now. The plan is to give him a race over hurdles around Christmas and then go for the Denman Chase at Newbury, which he won last season, before having another try at the Gold Cup. He won the Hennessy and the Welsh National, but the yard was slightly out of form by Cheltenham and he had the run of the race but was beaten only two lengths. If he has an easier time of it through the season he might just win a Gold Cup. People talk about the Grand National but the owners aren’t keen, and he’d have top weight or thereabouts, but he’d have a favourite’s chance, wouldn’t he? He’ll have an entry, but the Gold Cup has to come first.

  2. Seven Towers says:

    I keep saying it year after year but Brocade haven’t had a runner over the National fences let alone the National itself.

  3. Systemsman says:

    miinnehoma many thanks for those great pre 31st Dec stats. Gong to allocate them points and see how the top of the market look when i get time. Interesting to note last six years the GN winner had a top 4 (and 2 or more races) from Sept to Dec 31st.

  4. Systemsman says:

    Interesting to note last six years the GN winner had a top 4 (and 2 or more races) from Sept to Dec 31st.
    Its also a 15/16 stat – well worth taking note off – comments anyone.

  5. Seven Towers says:

    Returning to the question of Go Conquer again, if you do like him for the GN then you must bring Singlefarmpayment and Noble Endeavor into the equation who, as things currently stand, will be much better off with him following their Cheltenham meeting. I’m not certain about Noble Endeavor’s current wellbeing but he faced 100 opponents in his final four races of last season and very few finished in front of him.

  6. Systemsman says:

    Just had a look at the top ten list on oddschecker.com against some pre Dec 31st trends. Only Blaklion look about right, has one run this season (2nd) but entered for Becher Chase. Can he make those last three fences this year?? Views.

    A number of others have a too high an OR in my opinion.

    GN winner 10.03 to 11.01 14/17 (and if we go down to 10.00 its even longer). Clearly the 11.02 or more winner are a now and again result which was my view when it last happened in 2015. Views.

    Weight for GN. for the last 5 years top weight has been 11.10 given for an OR of 158 to 165. I think if we use OR 161 (3/5) we wont be far wrong for working out some very rough possible weights. On that basis 11.01 (likely winner being 11.01 or less) would be around an OR of around 152. VIews

  7. Seven Towers says:

    The winners of all the ‘new’ Nationals have had an adjusted RPR of 171 or above and you can foresee which horses are going to achieve this. Singlefarmpayment’s highest RPR is now 153 and off his current OR he is likely to be 14-18lbs off top weight. If the weights are compressed so that the top weight goes off 161 then Singlefarmpayment would race off 10-10ish. The way the adjusted RPR’s are calculated means that off 10-10 he is 18lbs off 12st (I know the top weight only carries 11-10 now but this is still how the RP calculates). Add the 18lbs to his highest achieved RPR of 153 and he will have an adjusted figure of 171.

    Mall Dini just fails TS stat if Smith doesn’t tamper too much with the Irish brigade. He achieved his highest RPR over fences over the furthest distance he has run over. For him to meet the requisite adjusted RPR he would need the top weight to run off 163 and for Smith to leave him on his current OR. That said he has plenty of time to rectify this by running a screamer somewhere between now and then. Abolitionist is exactly the same as Mall Dini. Highest chase RPR over furthest distance raced but top weight would need to be 163 to meet the new adjusted RPR trend.

    Both Tiger Roll and Noble Endeavor would have an RPR of 171 if running off their current OR’s. Native River and Minella Rocco would most likely be running off an adjusted figure of 175 if turning up.

    A horse like Rock The Kasbah however has a highest RPR of 152 (one below SFP) and yet his OR is now higher than SFP which would temper my enthusiasm for him. If the top weight was off an OR of 161 then he would have an RPR of only 167. Go Conquer by comparison would currently be racing off of around 172 and Present Man only 169.

    One horse that hasn’t been mentioned on here (that I can see) who has posted an RPR of 160 in 3 of his last 4 races and would most likely have an adjusted RPR of 172 is Theatre Guide. The caveat with him however being that Mrs Bishop may not let her horse go for the race but he is entered for the Becher. Interesting horse.

  8. Systemsman says:

    “Seven Towers says:
    November 17, 2017 at 12:00 pm
    The winners of all the ‘new’ Nationals have had an adjusted RPR of 171 or above and you can foresee which horses are going to achieve this.”

    Many thanks fr that info Seven Towers and how it is worked out – will take note. Which year are you starting from for the “new Nationals”?

  9. Seven Towers says:

    2013

  10. Seven Towers says:

    When it’s soft or heavy there is a really good method regarding RPR’s. If you take the horse in question, check their best RPR’s in a chase over three miles either side of the going. For instance: if the ground is soft then disregard all RPR’s on good or good to firm only taking into account RPR’s on GtoS, the said going and Heavy. If the ground is GtoS then only consider RPR’s on good, the said ground and Soft. If it’s Heavy, then only take into account Soft and the said ground (the other side of Heavy is abandoned!). Not sure if I have explained that well!

    Take Rule The World. Ground was soft when he won. Best RPR prior to GN was 153 (twice) on heavy ground. The Last Samuri’s best RPR prior was 159 which was on soft. Vics Canvas best prior chase RPR was 151 on soft. Gilgamboa’s best chase RPR over three miles was 155, this time on heavy. Goonyella’s was 152 on heavy too.

    Their respective adjusted Chase RPR’s for the race were

    174
    179
    173
    168 (not ideal)
    172

    A soft ground National would be ideal for making dough!

  11. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    Another disappointing performance from MINELLA ROCCO,what are people’s views on this under performing horse,can’t see him making th GN…..

  12. Mike N says:

    The irony is if he continues to underperform he could end up running in the GN by default as the plan was the Gold Cup.
    His jumping is too guessy for me in a race like that.

  13. mike campo says:

    Hi Mike.
    As I stated before the race, this was a prep run that Minella Rocco was unlikely to win and according to my conversation during the summer, the GN is very much part of the plan with a campaign in the odd handicap to get the weight down.

  14. Systemsman says:

    Minella Rocco,

    Even if MR lost a few pounds it would still likely be top weight on 11.10 so its a no for me for a short list at this stage. Only two Handicap Chases i believe (am i right?) rather than the three i would like to see.

  15. miinnehoma says:

    Minella’s CMP would put me off.
    4,19,0.29,8-22-23
    Same for Native River
    10,13,0.95,14-17-17
    Mall Dini – no chase wins
    7 chases 0-1-4

    Top 10 from Oddschecker 20/1 – 33/1

    OR153 -2 Blaklion, 9 yrs
    OR166 — Native River, 8 yrs
    OR151 -2 Vincente, 9 yrs
    OR152 -NR Cause Of Causes, 10 yrs
    OR164 -4PU Minella Rocco, 8 yrs
    OR167 -7 Our Duke, 8 yrs
    OR158 -3 Definitly Red, 9 yrs
    OR143 -5 Mall Dini, 8 yrs
    OR166 -61 Outlander, 10 yrs
    OR146 — Ucello Conti, 10 yrs

  16. miinnehoma says:

    Like to keep these handy.
    ( cod & amb house CMP numbers are from the poster REDRUM)

    one for Arthur-10 16 0.73 12 13 18
    rule the world-10 15 0.76 14 18 19
    many clouds –-9 15 0.60 14 15 20
    pineau de re —6 13 0.76 11 16 18
    auroras enc ––9 16 0.67 14 20 21
    neptune coll —2 12 0.44 09 13 19
    ballabriggs –—5 13 0.62 14 21 22
    dont push it —-9 16 0.52 11 15 18
    mon mome —-10 16 0.71 14 23 20
    comply or d —10 16 0.68 15 18 21
    silver birch —–4 15 0.44 11 13 20
    numbersix ——8 15 0.60 13 13 20
    hedgehunter –11 15 0.77 12 16 16
    amb house —–7 16 0.57 14 12 23
    monty’s pass –7 16 0.54 09 12 18
    bindaree —–—7 14 0.61 16 16 23
    red marauder -6 15 0.54 10 14 19
    papillon —–—-6 16 0.33 09 17 19
    bobbyjo ——–9 15 0.66 12 09 18
    earth summit –6 16 0.47 12 12 22
    lord gyllene —-4 14 0.43 10 11 20
    rough quest ––5 15 0.43 12 18 22
    royal athlete —7 13 0.69 16 18 22
    miinnehoma —7 15 0.55 13 14 21
    party pol ——–4 15 0.36 09 15 20
    seagram ——–3 15 0.30 08 16 20

  17. miinnehoma says:

    from last year -
    (Left out Lord G. cause he won chases in NZ).

    15/23 GN winners had run in 9 – 17 chases.

    other 8 had 2×23, 2×24, 25, 27, 37, & 41 chases.

    Number of chase runs with 1+2+3
    14; Party Politics———-5-3-0
    09; Miinnehoma———–—-4-2-1
    16; Royal Athlete———–6-1-1
    23; Rough Quest————-5-9-2
    25; Earth Summit————7-5-1
    17; Bobbyjo—————–—–5-3-0
    24; Papillon—————–—-6-3-1
    13; Red Marauder——–—5-1-0
    15; Bindaree——————–3-2-3
    41; Monty’s Pass————7-11-9
    37; Amberleigh House—-5-7-5
    11; Hedgehunter———–—3-3-2
    10; Numbersixvalverde–3-1-2
    13; Silver Birch————–4-3-1
    14; Comply Or Die——––4-3-0
    24; Mon Mome——————5-6-1
    12; Don’t Push It———–-4-2-1
    12; Ballabriggs—————4-5-0
    27; Neptune Collonges–11-3-2
    23; Auroras Encore——–5-2-1
    14; Pineau De Re————3-2-1
    10; Many Clouds———–—5-2-0
    13; Rule The World—-0-7-1

    ***************
    10; One For Arthur—3-1-3

Leave a Reply