Grand National 2017 – Weights Revealed

I am setting this thread up in anticipation of the upcoming announcement of the Grand National weights for 2017.

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946 Responses to Grand National 2017 – Weights Revealed

  1. kj says:

    Crikey Red Flash thats an effort! the crossing of families is interesting too I hope your conclusions shed light on why Wild Risk is such a factor!
    Thing about big hearts is I believe when the theory started, normal heart sizes were smaller and have grown with the general effect of breeding big hearts extensively. I think the low end was 5lb and now its 8 or so… the gap narrowing. Identifying double big hearted xx females with the easier to trace males with big hearts,..which bred together give 100% female big hearts is all I can really do… the others its complicated or near impossible,. hopefully your study will uncover some new pointers!
    With less raced females and broodmares to the layperson like me, its just too unknown. Any less than the 3 big heart chromosomes out of 4 meeting is uncertain anyway and unknown unraced often female horses make offspring on paper look weaker, the dams dams dam side often looks on face value the weakest part to me, its probably not true.

  2. kj says:

    Miinehoma… Definitly Red this yrs Last Samuri and Raz as Goony…
    ‘could be!’ was it Scooby who used to say that.
    In terms of breeding Red not exactly got obvious names in his pedigree, where Samuri does. I am therefore going to twin Samuri with Double Shuffle in my head, good /inevitable game.
    I have a feeling about Red too, but is it red by name or red by nature! ;)

    Ucello not really inspiring, popping close at a few fences, I like to see mine going long! ran down the last when Daryl was asking for a better effort, popped over loosing several lengths there, he was on 11-10 with Thunder and he’s not one for that! seemed to find it hard to jump out of the ground at times, then right there, then nothing at crucial end point.
    One thing, it is striking how much heavy ground Ucello has run on and at a glance, his record in France on g/s looks his best. I still think he and VLR could do better than last yr, but the real question is obviously can they win! Ucellos runs have looked stealthy preps of a horse that could go further, but for today! which made him look like all those other horses that I’ve thought that of before and when asked can’t go on, or should I say catch up near the end first!….VLR looked to have the more desired showy brilliance in his last prep but its alot further home and he didn’t shine in GN last yr, barely noticed him, yep, last yr said otherwise but looks a better horse so aghhh!! forget last yrs horses is probably the best line of enquiry! I am now going to cling to Saint Are (only) on good ground I think. Just looked (if anyone can confirm) he seems to have one of the big four Blue Larkspur through his dam sire! (8 gens) didn’t see that 2yrs ago.

  3. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    Got to say, that was a poor showing from UCELLO CONTI,this horse hasn’t had it’s head in front for a couple of years and at the moment it is just making the numbers up in it’s races,always of the pace and then taking no part in it,not great prep for upcoming GN,I’m beginning to think this horse is the ARSENAL of the horse racing world………..very disappointed with that performance………..

  4. Seven Towers says:

    Yes, agree re Ucello’s jumping. It’s another placed effort in a 19+ runner field, its undoubtedly a wonderful record but ultimately a frustrating one. That said I do wonder how fully tuned up he was today but in a way he is becoming a horse that is fast running out of excuses.

  5. Mike N says:

    I must be in the minority as I thought Ucello ran a perfectly sound race off top weight.

  6. Seven Towers says:

    It was a bit ‘meh’. He didn’t look like a GN winner in waiting put it that way.

  7. galileo says:

    Hi gang,
    MIKE N,but somewhere along the line you’ve got to be looking as if your going to win a race and advertise your credentials,at the moment this horse looks as if it’s just making the numbers up in its races…..

  8. Mike N says:

    Rule The World never won in the season last year so can be done. Its all about peaking on the big day. Don’t get me wrong he still has to prove his stamina but I’ve liked his runs this season. Can still make the frame.

  9. Seven Towers says:

    I like playing Devils Advocate quite a bit on here and I would like to do so again but with regards the whole concept of horse pedigrees and chromosomes etc. It can be all very well having a horse that is the son of this or the grandson of that but sometimes it is the ‘coach’ or in this case the trainer that can be the arbiter of whether the horse sprints or stays. Breeding does of course play its part, its a multi billion pound business after all, so you would hope it has some bearing but look at someone like Dermot Weld on the level. He trains and I can’t emphasise this enough, he trains his horses to stay no matter what their pedigree is. Some have more conventional staying pedigrees but some do not and these latter ones seem to get further than their pedigree would otherwise have you believe. Jonjo in NH is another that concentrates on training stamina into his horses and the best example I can remember of him doing this was in a horse from a few years back called Legal Right, who although decent looked as though he couldn’t go beyond 10f on the Flat. Goes to Jonjo and after some hard conditioning and stamina based training, hey presto he had himself a £30k winning three mile chaser. So the horse may have the all singing, all dancing, staying, potential GN winning pedigree that has some of us salivating at what might be, but in the wrong hands it could mean absolutely **** all.

  10. Seven Towers says:

    I think what I have done there is talk myself out of backing Double Shuffle this year as Tom George doesn’t train National types.

  11. Seven Towers says:

    But have added a bit more to my two Jonjo runners for the GC and GN!

  12. kj says:

    Haha Seven yes just getting into an angle.
    I think Tom Georges effort with Saint Are should make you rethink that one.

    Ucellos run today was the least encouraging run he’s had for me esp as the end echoed last yrs GN, yes the going and the weight and the peaking at right time, but looking elsewhere at mo… just realised our vote closes tonight!.. doesn’t it? cr**! off to do some juggling.

    Back to breeding then,..Its known on here pedigree query is unreliable, so would be handy if anyone with access could confirm any likely big hearts they know of, looking again at Blaklion, having backed him in races last season (oh no not another one to miss feeling) ….looks like he actually has War Admiral coming through a mare called The Lark only 1 male in the line! (and Man o war on that horses other side of family) The one male by the way Never say Die it says produced ‘stock with soft bones’ but was noted as a leading sire of broodmares. He lived til 24 which would suggest he had inherited a reasonable heart. Maybe 4m will bring something out in him and overide the Kayf Tara ‘nearly’ brigade with the crazy Twisters!. Carrying 11-12 last time and only 3.5l down isn’t bad for the little guy.

  13. pablo says:

    I can see the logic in looking for patterns of families in horses that have run well in the GN provided that the study looks at every single horse in the race

    They’re handicappers and they take it in turns to beat one another so for me it’s a bit fanciful to think that each year there is one horse among the GN field with a magic staying pedigree and a massive heart.

    And does this amazing influence only reveal itself on GN day?

    Surely form over 28f or 26f provides a pretty good clue 90%+ of the time these days

  14. miinnehoma says:

    Top 10 –
    Cause, Saphir & Houblon should run this week.

    10, OR156, 5——–3F21 Saphir Du Rheu,51, age 8, 11-04
    19, OR152, 3——–4532 Blaklion,49, age 8, 11-00
    24, OR150, P——-5P05 Cause Of Causes,70, age 9, 10-12
    28, OR149, 6——74724 Ucello Conti,27, age 9, 10-11
    30, OR149, 1P——-348 Houblon Des Obeaux,49, age 10, 10-11
    44, OR146, 02——-4P1 Just A Par,35, age 10, 10-08
    45, OR146, U—–21722 Raz De Maree,30, age 12, 10-08
    48, OR145, ——-80095 Rogue Angel,72, age 9, 10-07
    55, OR144, -P0207226 Thunder And Roses,27, age 9, 10-06
    57, OR144, ——8521P Goodtoknow,49, age 9, 10-06

  15. kj says:

    It is a bit fanciful and yes proof over 28 or 26f is a reliable guide, but I am struggling to see the horse that will win…. since the winner died beating that bloomin fanciful horse ;) this year is rather painful really.
    I am fascinated by the breeding aspect and whether something can really turn up trained for it but rather fresh one day in another shocker.

  16. Corbiere says:

    Well I for on have never considered Ucello Conti as I think he is at best a place proposition and won’t back a horse on that basis in the GN as I strive to find the winner. Personally not sure he will even place, but only my humble opinion.
    Presuming now that Foxrock will go for Irish GN and if he doesn’t get in Thunder as well. Personally I would probably run Ucello in that as well, was he listed for Irish GN ?

  17. Mike N says:

    It was the weight that done Ucello at the end.

    Comments in running….
    Going well after 3 out, ridden in 3rd far side after 2 out and no extra from last, one pace run-in and dropped to moderate 4th.

    First 2 in the race pulled away carrying 10 12 and 10 5. The 3rd on 11 3 and he was only 3 and a half lengths off him.

    Not a bad run at all. People expect too much sometimes from horses with lots of weight and a bigger target still to go for.

  18. Mike N says:

    And by the way TLS was beaten around the same distance off top weight in his prep and some people have praised his effort.

    Ucello still a player off a lighter weight in the big one for me.

  19. Seven Towers says:

    I agree with one of the above posts about whether the Irish National would be more up his street. That said they are persevering with the National, so connections must think he will stay even if the evidence suggests otherwise. It could be a case like Imperial Commander and Irish Cavalier inasmuch they were both persevered with over trips that seemed, at first, beyond them but eventually that belief in their ability to stay plus a good deal of training paid off in the end.

  20. GreenGoddess says:

    I think that was a perfectly good prep run from Ucello Conti. Did he blow me away…..no. Do I think he’ll win the national……maybe, maybe not.

    Let’s not forget Gordon Elliott, only 3/4 weeks ago, said Ucello was probably going straight to the GN. This race was not his target.

  21. pablo says:

    Agree if I were a backer of Ucello Conti the last thing I’d want is for him to be all out winning in that ground

    The race was a slowboat’s paradise run 69 seconds above standard time (according to RP) whereas the Thyestes was 26 seconds above standard time

    Last year’s GN was around 30 seconds above standard time

    It was Eider chase ground not GN ground

    I’d say mission accomplished for Gordon Elliott if the race doesn’t leave a mark

  22. kj says:

    I agree with everyones Ucello thoughts and yes its still a maybe /maybe not situation.
    Like Raz’ last run, not sure what it showed us, at least some wellbeing sure… took Raz de as positive, but could argue he is in top form right now and could go over by time of race! it was a hurdle race against nothing, run in a slow style like yesterday horses keep bunching up I felt. Ucello had his moments down the inside looking a GN barrel in a noseband! inside job looks a certainty!!
    Last preps don’t have to be inspiring we’ve seen that plenty of times recently, esp with top weight!
    What are the stats around last runs esp pre blog anyone looked at that?
    DPI -PU, MM top weight Midlands finished fading 6th or 8th.. that most here took as poor effort.
    ‘Staying on’ Top4 always helps with confidence, or not pushing at the end after a good performance I think, thats where he lost me yesterday really the last jump and run in, he was pushed to do better and didn’t, his will was there, the weight told. GN will have much less weight thats important, the ground also as said its not for him, good ground will help (but it will help some others) he is a careful jumper that can mean two things really. Last yrs slow race and fast finish is not typical and a few would benefit from it that way again, but is it likely? Whats the weather forecast? …Jury is still out ;)

  23. BL says:

    Having given it a bit more thought, probably not a bad run from Ucello. Why woud Gordon leave a half million prize in a 50k slop at Naas? On the daily page I postyed that I thought he’d run ok without being too close and I guess he has done that. The bit I can’t fathom is why Dazzler was so harsh on him form 2 out when obv he was not going to win? Hit him at least 7 times and he was out of shot after that so it could have been more – and they weren’t light taps either. I’m not sure that’s just blowing the cobwebs off? I’m not sure what that means. Strange beast but it is Gordon and he is a master.

    I think he’s still a player.

  24. red flash says:

    seven
    i do agree that when it comes to families,dosage,triads etc if you take each on its own it will only paint the cracks, it is subjective, but when you add them all together along with other things like the really strong stats it paints the whole picture so to speak.
    I do believe that all really strong stats combined with dosage triads families etc it will narrow the field down to a small handful of possible winners.
    Anything that helps so to speak lol
    On families not so long ago anything without native dancer/nearco/northen dancer within its first 5 generations was a big negative, but with the heavily concentrated in- breeding to the above horses breeders started looking for fresh blood so to speak, hence the high numbers of french bred winners in all forms of racing in the last few years,

  25. pablo says:

    http://www.tbheritage.com/Breeders/FR/Boussac/Boussac.html

    “His [Marcel Boussac's] successes in England literally changed the General Stud Book, particularly those with horses carrying the blood of his prize stallion Tourbillon. Tourbillon was technically a “half-bred” by English standards, since he carried some dubious American blood (through the “tainted” blood of the great American stallions Hanover and Lexington). But after two decades of Tourbillon offspring kicking the daylights out of proper English thoroughbreds, along with the success of American breeder William Woodward, who also used a combination of American and French blood, the notorious Jersey Act of 1913 was repealed in 1949.”

    Lexington ran over 4 miles
    My understanding is that Roselier was inbred to Tourbillon
    And that Ballabriggs’ dam has four incidences of Tourbillon in her pedigree

    But then plenty of GN winners don’t have this

    It’s interesting but more of an art than a science – perhaps have a stronger bet if you like the pedigree, but racecourse evidence is preferable to a pretty page I’d say

  26. pablo says:

    …for the GN that is

  27. kj says:

    Its like Crufts hoping for some good inbreeding ;)
    I had noticed multiples is unfortunately a good pointer and yes makes a good ‘painting’ overall.
    Was Black beauty based on St.Simons looks I have often wondered ;) what a horse he looked!

    Last yr I still think poor old Vics Canvas,. can you believe an Old Vic not getting many supporters! going off at 66-1. Good Old Vic!
    Seasonal runs or actually runs over 2 seasons looking a newer credential leaves horses like Highland Lodge in a dodgy position I know,.. always on the cusp of my top6 tho with obvious claims, breeding could help decide the distance experience but maybe not the seasonal fitness, still never say never.
    I have a few without enough preps still hanging in or around my top6, possibly the most solid stat for the winner! without backing Vics for a place last yr tho I wouldn’t have won some money! so its a two pronged attack for me. This time I also voted for 2 Kayf Taras… dear oh dear, hope we won’t be repeating ourselves after the race again!

  28. Pollyowls says:

    I thought Ucello’s prep run was reasonable… however the words ‘kept on at one pace..’ appear far too often in his form history for my liking. Truth is he appears to be able to get himself into contention, but then doesn’t have the finishing speed to get his head in front.
    If the ground turns fast, I can’t see him being able to lay up with the pace.
    The one to take out of that race (for 2018) was Abolitionist… the assistant trainer said before the race he was worried the ground was too deep for him, and he’d be a better horse on better ground – looking at Fairyhouse next (if he can get in).
    Could be a real chance for a female jockey to win a GN if Rachel Blackmore keeps the ride…

  29. Seven Towers says:

    She is absolute mustard. Best female jock I have seen and a hell of a lot better than some of the male dross we have on this side of the pond – naming no names of course.

  30. miinnehoma says:

    Top wt 11-10, s/heavy & the bare 24f.

    Good or Bad, time will tell.

    Stat wise the race was a cracker for Ucello.

    LTO 27 days – Last year 79 days.
    5 Prep runs – Last year only 3 runs.
    7 Runs @ 24f+ – Last year only 2 in his career before GN.
    Finished 4th – 20/26 top 5 finish in last prep race.

    From early doors I have been thinking Gordon will win again – 10 yrs on from Silver Birch.
    If it’s not this lad then maybe Cause Of Causes will be the one.

  31. Kevski111 says:

    I am zooming in on Rogue Angel if it has another run but not entered for anything yet before the national…patience dear boy, patience :)

  32. Corbiere says:

    Cheltenham Champion Tipster Competition starts tomorrow, just a bit of fun, bragging rights only at stake.
    Entries in by 12 noon please.
    On Cheltenham Thread please.

  33. miinnehoma says:

    Mouse said last week he would find him another wee race before the GN.

    Hard one to leave out.

    Last yrs Irish National winner.
    Age 9 on 10-07.
    Sire Presenting with Busted DNA.
    CMP perfect.
    5 or more prep runs.

    Apart from current form the only other thing I can see is his strike rate of 1st & 2nd’s

    Chase – 32 -4-3 very low.
    Life – 38 -5-5 very low.

    But then Rule T.W. had yet to win a chase never mind 3 which the last 26 or more GN winners had.
    Some Basic stats have let us down over the last few years so you just don’t know.
    Also the problem is that many of them fit a basic profile and many have a touch of Wild Risk.

  34. Mike N says:

    For those who want to enter the Cheltenham forum comp then hop along to the Cheltenham thread.

  35. Mike N says:

    Oops sorry Corbs you sent reminder already didn’t see that.

  36. Mike N says:

    No way is Rachel Blackmore better than Nina Carberry has been ST.

  37. Kevski111 says:

    Thanks for the Minnie regarding Rogue Angel, if entered for a run before the National I am going in big time!

  38. miinnehoma says:

    Go on Rogue Angel.
    **********************
    Just noticed that 5 of the first 7 in the betting are 8 yr olds – whats afoot.
    Blimey, we usually get one every 10 yrs or so and we had one 2 yrs ago – Many Clouds.
    But we are overdue a 12 yr old winner, Amberleigh House was the last one in 2003 & after Vics Canvas mighty run last year it could happen – Go on Raz De Maree.

  39. GreenGoddess says:

    I’m expecting a decent run from The Young Master today….should see a contraction I in his GN price.

  40. Lucky Vane says:

    Today’s National entries are Junction Fourteen, Measureofmydreams & The Young Master in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2.50) over 3 miles1 furlongs.

    This race (or the equivalent) was used by Bindaree in 2002 he finished 7th nearly 33 lengths back

  41. Kevski111 says:

    Everyday the feeling is getting stronger that Rogue Angel has been wrapped up in cotton wool since the Irish national win, just been going through the motions so to speak.

  42. Mike N says:

    are you sure about that Kev. what happened in the Becher? ;) How often do trainers win grand nationals in consecutive years? I think Red Rum was the last time ;)

  43. Kevski111 says:

    Not sure what happened in the Becher Mike N but then again horses are not machines, as for the same trainer is it of consequence? When you are backed by Gigginstown and basically following the same pattern as last years winner anything is possible. Big player for me :)

  44. kj says:

    Rogue could do anything I feel… if the right horse turns up!… to whichever national ;) (same for Thunder) the horses Gigginstown pick seem one of two types physically, fluid free runners like Rogue and sturdy barrels like Thunder, makes all the maroons even harder to seperate.
    Rogue was going very well in the becher til 4 out I thought, where something happened,. if theres a secret wind op there I might throttle someone if I don’t back him! someone get some inside info ;) he is one I think can win too and One for Arthur who I can’t shake looks good on the rewatching! Now feel alot in that race could do it, more so than when it was run in december. I think VLR and Ucello get low to some and Ucello really likes to put the extra step in, where Highland stands right off, even at bechers brook! he so loves it!

  45. Lucky Vane says:

    Sporting Life seems to have solved their problem with their video form. Replayed the Ultima to see how the young master fared. I think to watch it you need to be a member of Sky Bet, but don’t need to deposit any money, unless it’s live racing you want to watch.

    The Young Master is Orange and Brown colours and ran a bit better than I give him credit for, loosing touch with the leading 5 but clear of The Druid’s Nephew in 7th. The Racing Post says he ran a really nice Grand National trial and will be of obvious interest at Aintree next month. Also Measureofmydreams another one with National interest was describe as having a big prize in him (National, probably ) :? Anyway MOMD finished in 13th spot some 27 1/2 lengths behind TYM. Junction Fourteen was never travelling, and pulled up at the 15th. I lay money on him coming out at the next elimination stage, but just my opinion.

    Today keep an eye on these Grand National hopefuls.

    The Romford Pele (2.50 Cheltenham)
    Alelchi Inois (4.10 Cheltenham)
    Bless The Wings (4.10 Cheltenham)
    Cause Of Causes (4.10 Cheltenham)
    Sausalito Sunrise (4.10 Cheltenham)

  46. Kevski111 says:

    Hey all systems go for my nap Cause Of Causes :) :) What a machine…

  47. pablo says:

    For the first time for ages (ever?) the Irish National might have a higher OR bottom weight than the GN – big increase in prize money

    I won’t carry on about over-rated horses…

  48. Lucky Vane says:

    My next vote will be interesting but going to wait at least to next elimination stage. Got a lot to take in with Cause Of Causes and Bless The Wings.

    The are more National hopefuls out tomorrow.

    Alary goes in the 2.50 Cheltenham
    Cocktail At Dawn in the 4.10 Cheltenham
    Doctor Harper in the 5.30 Cheltenham
    Hadrian’s Approach in the 5.30 Cheltenham
    La Vaticane in the 5.30 Cheltenham
    Pendra in the 5.30 Cheltenham

  49. Lucky Vane says:

    Those which ran today Sausalito Sunrise finished last and also lame. IMO could be pulled out at next stage. Alelchi Inois pulled up on the run in, not good and could also go. The Romford Pele will have to do a Don’t Push It, question is does lightning strike in the same place twice. :?

  50. ESB says:

    Sadly, we have lost Hadrian’s Approach from the field.

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