Grand National 2017 – Weights Revealed

I am setting this thread up in anticipation of the upcoming announcement of the Grand National weights for 2017.

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946 Responses to Grand National 2017 – Weights Revealed

  1. kj says:

    Oh boo.

  2. moreen says:

    Always a dodgy jumper but he’d got to the stage in his career where I thought he’d carry on getting away with it. Shame. RIP

  3. crisp73 says:

    RIP Hadrians Approach. It’s been entertaining if not always profitable watching him and Lord W, Unioniste, Goulanes, Houblon – class of ’13 RSA in the long distance chases – may be Lord W or Houblon can give him a nod at Aintree.

    Cracking run from Pendra in the Kim Muir after 11 months off. Finished way down the field last year but a GN pedigree- family 1, sire is Old Vic, damsire is Over The River (sired GN placers Over The Deel and Over The Road at big prices)

    I’m not sure how good the good at the festival is today but the King George was quick and I think there is still plenty of improvement in Tea For Two (Kayf Tara theme!) and a nice price.

  4. Mike N says:

    I remember Hadrians Approach as a Novice, he was one my favourites. Sad news.

  5. pablo says:

    Can see on the day bets with all bookmakers offering Minella Rocco with fallers’ insurance

  6. Seven Towers says:

    It’s a moot point but how many of us would have money on Native River if he were entered?

  7. Mike N says:

    Not me.

  8. crisp73 says:

    RPRs for GC (provisional?) ;
    Minella Rocco 171 (highest chase RPR) GNOR158/ 11-6
    Saphir Du Rheu 168 (equalled highest chase RPR) GNOR156 / 11-4
    More Of That 165 (highest chase RPR) GNOR157/ 11-5

    …. GN bottom weight probably no lower than OR142/ 10-4 … could be OR144/ 10-6.

    I hope these horses are looked after … but purely from a selfish personal point of view I hope they all run!! What a cracker.

  9. Lucky Vane says:

    7T he was my number one in the mini vote just after Christmas. Minella Rocco was also in my list, Last Samuri and the Old Red Lion.

    Was working today, but managed to catch Gold Cup on my break. Picture was blotchy (always is in bad weather) so had to wait until I came home. Minella Rocco turn of foot at the end really impressed me. That’s your winner here. He’s been shortened into 10/1 at best. Grab some even if it’s just a saver.

    Yes he’s a seven year old, but last year we did get a thirteen year old third, strange times :P

  10. Lucky Vane says:

    Here’s how I voted so far

    Lucky Vane says:
    December 28, 2016 at 4:16 pm
    My selection are very tricky and could (must likely change) as more data becomes available.

    Native River is my best selection, but connections could have other plans IE Gold Cup. 6 points
    Caroles Destrier 5 points (Welsh National might have come too early after Hennessy)
    Vieux Lion Rouge 4 points (Bechers Victory must put him on everyone’s short list)
    Minella Rocco 3 points (Been running well in my opinion)
    The Last Samuri 2 points (Yes, I wrote him off, after all last year’s National was the slowest in at least a decade. However his third to Vieux Lion Rouge does show improvement so might give him one more try. For now he meets my criteria)

    Lucky Vane says:
    February 15, 2017 at 11:58 am
    My early vote is

    1 point Vic Canvas

    Vic Canvas last season was the oldest placed horse since 1969. He overcome a near fall at Becher’s first time in Rhyme N’ Reason style to a least have a chance of winng. The race was the slowest in recent history but he did recall a personal best RPR, so has to be respected.

    2 points Minella Rocco

    Minella Rocco is the opposite end of the age scale to VC. Shaped as if could be dangerous to Many Clouds on his preultimate run, and also the run before that put him on my radar. Last run was dissappointing but I fell a big race is likely to be landed by him.

    3 points The Last Samuri

    Because last season’s race was slow TLS was quickly passed over, however his run in the Becher’s made me reconsider him. A personal best RPR is always a plus and it shows a liking to the course. However might be top weight come race day.

    4 points Vicente

    On my list because of his Scottish National win. He also shows his best in the spring month

    5 points The Young Master

    On my list because of his Sandown Gold Cup win, where it was revealed by his trainer that this race is his season’s target. On 10-8 (when weights was revealed it’s a nice weight and he’s given every chance.
    His runs this season lack form but one was a hurdle race.

    6 points and Nap Carole’s Destrier

    His Hennessy second was impressive behind Native River and could have had an effect in his run behind the same horse in the Welsh National.

    Lucky Vane says:
    February 15, 2017 at 11:58 am
    My early vote is

    1 point Vic Canvas

    Vic Canvas last season was the oldest placed horse since 1969. He overcome a near fall at Becher’s first time in Rhyme N’ Reason style to a least have a chance of winng. The race was the slowest in recent history but he did recall a personal best RPR, so has to be respected.

    2 points Minella Rocco

    Minella Rocco is the opposite end of the age scale to VC. Shaped as if could be dangerous to Many Clouds on his preultimate run, and also the run before that put him on my radar. Last run was dissappointing but I fell a big race is likely to be landed by him.

    3 points The Last Samuri

    Because last season’s race was slow TLS was quickly passed over, however his run in the Becher’s made me reconsider him. A personal best RPR is always a plus and it shows a liking to the course. However might be top weight come race day.

    4 points Vicente

    On my list because of his Scottish National win. He also shows his best in the spring month

    5 points The Young Master

    On my list because of his Sandown Gold Cup win, where it was revealed by his trainer that this race is his season’s target. On 10-8 (when weights was revealed it’s a nice weight and he’s given every chance.
    His runs this season lack form but one was a hurdle race.

    6 points and Nap Carole’s Destrier

    His Hennessy second was impressive behind Native River and could have had an effect in his run behind the same horse in the Welsh National.

    Altered to

    Lucky Vane says:
    March 5, 2017 at 11:06 am

    After yesterday’s performance I feel I must amend my vote so here is my old vote for this round.

    On the bases that he’ll be given another run somewhere, and providing it’s reasonable I’m giving Carole’s Destrier my 6 points, so no change there from me :P . The rest of the votes have changed from the last time.
    Raz De Maree gets 5 points, while Houblon Des Obeaux gets 4 points. These 3 have a good chance of lining up on April 8th. The next 2 have only a slim to none chance but at the moment my points are based on theory so I’m awarding my 3 points to Thunder And Roses and 2 points to Bless The Wings. My 1 point at the moment goes unclaimed.

    Recap of points awarded

    6 points Carole’s Destrier (Nap)
    5 points Raz De Maree
    4 points Houblon Des Obeaux
    3 points Thunder And Roses
    2 points Bless The Wings

    I still see Carole’s Destrier as a solid chance in the National but I always thought that this year’s winner will be a more fancied runner (one nearer favourite than recent attempts). I saw and heard enough to make The Last Samuri my new Nap. The rest goes down in order by 1 point. So my new vote looks like this

    6 points The Last Samuri (Nap)
    5 points Carole’s Destrier
    4 points Raz De Maree
    3 points Houblon Des Obeaux
    2 points Thunder And Roses
    1 point Bless The Wings

    As you can see from these previous posts that Minella Rocco has been in my mind from the very start. I did go off him slightly last vote, because others was performing better and those last two runs of his was putting me off, however my heart says he’ll win a big race. I think he deserves it. I hope it’s The National!

  11. Lucky Vane says:

    Question

    Which performance at Cheltenham was the best for the National?

  12. mike campo says:

    Minella Rocco is a very short price now, given that he is a relatively inexperienced Seven year old who has fallen/unseated in Two of his last Four races over conventional fences and is also declared for the Irish National which JJ has favoured as a stepping stone in the past with the likes of Shutthefrontdoor and Sunnyhill Boy.
    Connections have already lost a couple of Gold Cup horses ( eg Synchronised ) by over reaching them in the GN straight after and therefor may feel that this is a year too early for his age, experience and potential.
    I never thought that he would go for the GN this year but they may now be tempted to risk it off his current handicap mark since that GC performance.
    The stable say they don’t know yet so isn’t it a risky betting proposition at such a short price ?

  13. ESB says:

    I agree with you Mike

    A 7yo with an iffy jumping record, which has never jumped the national fences but which loves Cheltenham, has to be taken care of.

    JP has 7 in the race – all likely to make the cut. Fairyhouse and Ayr follow on the next two weekends. I would be looking at the weights for all 3 races and planning my resources if I were Frank Berry.

  14. Pollyowls says:

    I can’t see Minella Rocco going to Aintree… they have time on their side to sort out his jumping. He’d be an accident waiting to happen this year…
    I know many on here don’t like the Cross-country race, but I thought Cause of Causes run was the best GN trial of the week. I think he’s JP’s best chance… still not convinced he’s the winner, though..

  15. Patsy2 says:

    I agree with you Polly, they have lots of time on their side with Minella and would probably fancy another tilt at next years gold cup, JP can be very patient.
    I have nothing against the cross country race, it has thrown up one winner and a few places so Cause of Causes goes on my short list, but like you I don’t think he’s the winner, I feel that something with a bit more toe might just nab him, if I only knew which that one was !

  16. Mr frisk says:

    I think wonderful charm was the best at Cheltenham for the national,
    He was running 3m 2f like Minello Rocco (who is now favourite for the national)
    he was finishing like a train in the foxhunters,and is carry considerably less weight in the national!!

  17. Seven Towers says:

    One of the better judged performances of Cheltenham week was Carlingford Lough staying in his box.

  18. Seven Towers says:

    Mr Frisk

    I can’t disagree that Wonderful Charm was carrying a lot of weight on his back last year. Most of it dead weight!

  19. Lucky Vane says:

    Besides Minella Rocco, I think Bless The Wing and Cause Of Cause. Trouble with COC is all his form been in the Cheltenham Festival. Can he reproduce it elsewhere. I agree on Wonderful Charm too, stayed on well and might be better value than MR.

  20. miinnehoma says:

    7 yr. old Gold Cup horses don’t grow on trees.
    I would hope the connections learnt their lesson with Synchronised.
    Since then I have no time for AP, JP or JJ.
    I have their names in my book and a line across them.
    8/1 GN fav – are they having a laugh.

  21. Seven Towers says:

    i would be interested to hear bloggers thoughts on what horses you feel are absolutely nailed on to jump round safely, no matter of where you think they will finish. Give me four each.

  22. sampy says:

    You’ve already said one :
    VLR.
    The Last Samuri, foot perfect over 51 (?) National fences so far.
    Highland Lodge
    Shutthefrontdoor

  23. Patsy2 says:

    Hi 7T my four to get round would be;
    The Last Samuri
    V L R
    Just A Par
    Saint Are
    I also think Tenor Nivernais will surprise a few

  24. majorattraction says:

    My four to get round would be…

    One For Arthur
    The Last Samuri
    Vieux Lion Rouge
    Pendra – if making the cut

  25. miinnehoma says:

    from Racing Post-
    Andy Stewart said “Saphir Du Rheu will definitely go for the GN”.
    Reckons he’ll stay the distance no problem.

    Looks like Pendra will also run in the GN.

  26. kj says:

    I concur Pollyowls and Mike Campo.
    As said it yesterday re GC if Minella stayed standing…. a contender.
    Like Native tho always to one side of my top6 because I didn’t see them running, maybe yesterday would persuade them otherwise, think Irish a better choice because of his jumping.

  27. Seven Towers says:

    The Last Samuri, Highland Lodge and VLR would definitely be my ‘mortgage’ horses to get round too. I would actually throw Rogue Angel in there as my fourth. And I only have one of them in my last named top six!

  28. kj says:

    oops, I pressed something there… I wrote that earlier this afternoon ;)
    I would choose the extra week and IN for Minella frankly.

    There were a few surprise runs or maybe not thinking about it, some respectable cheltenham form from COC but is he just for cheltenham always the question I was however impressed he looked really well. Pendra jumped out. Any horse running well in the GC is always a worry, same goes for the slog of the MN! Houblon ran well but would I take him forward, maybe not… I’m rather confused by this yr right now, will have to take a closer look but if Pushed I would pick COC ;)

    4 to get round,
    TLS
    One for Arthur
    Carlingford Lough
    COC

  29. kj says:

    sorry took me a while… could of easily choosen Highland Lodge actually and he is closest to my top6 of those.
    Actually I may have voted for him once… only one in that list in my top6 I think, everything up in the air for me!

  30. Seven Towers says:

    Yes, I am still mindful what Ruby said on RUK when he analysed the Becher Chase just after it. He did say of those that ran in it, Highland Lodge was the one he would take out of the race. At least it was an unbiased opinion and he is a pretty good judge!

  31. kj says:

    oh did he! I didn’t know that.

  32. kj says:

    Love the way he jumps and loves it, forget the name oh was it Always Waining, I think, a one lapper stepping up he did better than I thought personally, I didn’t fancy the distance for him at all, Highland Lodge I feel could get it.
    A worthy comparison of the two stat wise maybe team?

  33. Lucky Vane says:

    I’ve been dabbling with some stats, just to see what came out. These are not necessary my pick.
    I went through the entire field with these.

    Stats used were

    1 Ran within 49 days
    2 Must have at least 3 runs in current season.
    3 Must have a top 3 place in any of last 3 runs.
    4 Must have at least 10 chase runs experience
    5 Must have at least 19 National hunt runs experience.
    6 Must have a career best RPR in chases in any of last 2 starts, or won on with same or better OR than their Grand National OR.
    7 Must have a top 2 placing in a race at Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown Festival or a top 3 placing in any National.
    8 Must have won a chase over 3 miles 2 furlongs.
    9 Must have a top 2 position in a chase with 16 or more runners.
    10 Must have a top 3 position in a class 1 chase.
    11 Must have a top 3 position in any national hunt race ran in either March or April.

    Yes I know a few been broken, Rule The World was a maiden, Neptune Collonge was 56 days since last ran before his National victory, and Auroras Encore didn’t have a top 3 placings in any of his last 3 runnings. I will examine the stats later with one trend allowed to be broken to see what that picks.

    As I said these are not picks (yet) just suggestions on what to consider.

    Wonderful Charm, Cause Of Causes & Bless The Wings.

  34. Mike N says:

    My 4 just to get round…

    VLR
    Ucello Conti
    The Last Samurai
    Rogue Angel

  35. Pollyowls says:

    4 newcomers to jump round…
    Carlingford Lough
    Caroles Destrier
    Foxrock
    Blaklion

  36. sampy says:

    Bet 365 are NRNB

  37. Seven Towers says:

    From what I have seen perhaps the best jumper from the newcomers is Perfect Candidate. He jumps impeccably. Same can be said of Wonderful Charm.

  38. Seven Towers says:

    Wonderful Charm ? I’m an idiot! Not a newcomer.

  39. mike campo says:

    Hi Miinne
    Obviously a little concerned that my VLR Nap is on your dodgy CMP list but so is Minello Rocco who beat Naive River over 4 miles.
    Any thoughts as this was a major reason for not backing VLR as an EW good thing ?

  40. Pollyowls says:

    Agreed Seven… don’t know why I didn’t include Perfect Candidate as he seems a very tidy jumper. Just worried he’ll struggle to go the gallop and might get too far behind.

  41. Mike N says:

    Picking 4 to get round isn’t just about jumping, it’s about keeping up over 4 miles 3 and not be in danger of pulling up either by not going the gallop or not staying.
    Which is why I picked the 4 that I have.

  42. Pollyowls says:

    Exactly my point Mike… I just concentrated on newcomers in my list as I thought it might be a bit more interesting than picking those that have got round before.

  43. Kevski111 says:

    I am quite happy with the horses I have backed so far which are:

    Cause Of Cause 33/1 twice and 20/1

    Rogue Angel 33/1 (needs another run though)

    Vicente 33/1 (simply as it won the Scottish national but not sure if the form is solid as a lot of good horses pulled up so maybe ground was tacky)

    Houblon 50/1 (I think this one will relish the national and when I have looked back through previous winners, a lot have contested the Hennessy then gone onto win the national on a reduced official rating.)

    Ballynagour 50/1 (decent outsider who was half a length behind Rule the world when coming to grief last year and was running well at the time)

    Regal Encore 33/1 (needs another run badly and looking back shouldn’t have backed him so early so not so sure about this one at all)

    Wonderful charm 50/1 (Could get placed).

    The danger horse for me is Highland Lodge and could buck the trend of not enough prep runs as runs well fresh.

  44. admin says:

    Hi,

    Please bring this thread to a close.

    I have just opened a new Grand National thread

  45. moari says:

    Got to be said houblon looks thrown in at the current weights especially after that finish yesterday.Venetia stated a after he won the denman at newbury that he prefers flat tracks and that aintree should.50/1 is looking to tempting to ignore

  46. Denman says:

    Good morning folks the day is here !!! Following on from my story/fate post yesterday ……. 50 years since FOINAVON dodged a 29 horse pile up to win …….. number 29 today I believe is VICENTE!!

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