Grand National 2017 Declarations

Pendra has been take out of the Grand National this morning which brings Doctor Harper into the current final 40.

Please add your tips and comments for the Grand National to this thread

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423 Responses to Grand National 2017 Declarations

  1. red flash says:

    Daniel,
    whilst i fully agree with regarding knocking horses out without a post weights run, could there be an argument for keeping in the odd horse without a post weights run, horses like one for arthur who really do seem to be more prolific and seem to run better when kept fresh?

  2. PenguinKeeper says:

    Kj, Thanks for the reminder!!
    I was just saying he was too short at the time( still think he was!)
    Certainly jumped better than I thought he would, and showed his timeform p pre race to be totally justified.

    I still think I prefer a prominent racer, but as virtually nothing fell( bar most of mine by Valentines!), there was little to no carnage for those held up to avoid. Moving forward I guess this could become more of a trend with the easier fences.

    Surely it won’t happen again that a horse jumps The Canal Turn outside 20th place and wins!?

  3. daniel edwards says:

    Red flash

    People can do as they like. Each has to their own, but I’ll keep avoiding them myself!

    I don’t think there was many screaming that One For Arthur was crying out to run fresh either. I don’t think his bare form proves that either

  4. red flash says:

    daniel
    iam with 100% i was just putting the question out there about “are” there the odd horse who genuinely run far better fresh

  5. daniel edwards says:

    For sure

    Look at State of Play and alvarado. Placed 5 times between them. State of play ran in three consecutive nationals without seeing a racecourse in between those runs!

  6. Supersub says:

    Been at work today so a bit late with this, but as promised, here are the results of the blog’s race for the title of 2017′s King of the National.

    There was a total of 69 runners competing for this year’s title which included defending champion super keno and 2015′s maiden King, Bobs Worth.

    I will publish the top 6 in the next post but here is how the “also-rans” fared working through from the back of the field.

    69) 65 – J.Rambo
    68) 71 – Showlad
    67) 96 – Thrillofthechase
    66) 120 – moari
    65) 124 – PenguinKeeper
    64) 133 – Wayward Lad
    63) 135 – buffalotom
    62) 137 – moreen
    61) 146 – rough and tumble
    60) 155 – aj2k77
    59) 160 – fatspanner
    58) 162 – daniel edwards
    57) 163 – Earthstopper
    56) 165 – Tomboy
    54) 169 – Lescargot & ewok
    53) 176 – Mark
    52) 181 – Just So
    51) 184 – TC
    50) 186 – marko
    49) 194 – Walsh81
    48) 198 – billymag
    46) 201 – Irish Raider & sampy
    45) 203 – Bobs Worth
    43) 205 – Mister H & Amberlee
    42) 206 – Corbiere
    41) 208 – Guru8
    40) 213 – peterthepig
    39) 215 – Jackie
    38) 217 – Seven Towers
    37) 221 – Kevski111
    36) 222 – Mr frisk
    35) 223 – Lucky Vane
    32) 224 – Mike N, daveyboy & Rocky_Road
    31) 225 – Patsy2
    30) 227 – mandie
    29) 228 – hellodandy
    28) 229 – coate_rj
    27) 230 – Pollyowls
    26) 233 – mike campo
    25) 234 – quazeehorses
    24) 238 – simon6
    23) 243 – kj
    21) 244 – elliekak & Green Goddess
    19) 249 – JJ & Louis
    18) 253 – Guru9
    17) 255 – kedi dangalak
    15) 257 – welshpip & sling-shot03
    14) 264 – Golano
    13) 265 – State of Play
    11) 266 – super keno & Oscar
    10) 267 – harjake
    09) 270 – Party Politics
    08) 274 – galileo
    07) 287 – National Punter

    Top 6 to follow shortly.

  7. Supersub says:

    So here are this year’s top 6 in reverse order:-

    6th place – 290pts – speedyseagull
    5th place – 291pts – maj
    4th place – 306pts – red flash
    3rd place – 311pts – Supersub
    2nd place – 333pts – majorattraction

    But this year’s King with an impressive score of 360pts is Out Cider who managed to include the top 4 finishers within their 6 selections. Here is the winning post:-

    Out Cider says:
    April 3, 2017 at 10:54 pm

    6 Points Just A Par
    5 Points Cause of Causes
    4 Points Blacklion
    3 Points The Last Samuri
    2 points One For Arthur
    1 Point Saint Are

    So congratulations go to Out Cider who is the blog’s deserved 2017 KING OF THE NATIONAL.

  8. daniel edwards says:

    Great work to our champion and our organiser. A lot of time went into that I’m sure!

    I lost most of mine as fallers in the first circuit!

  9. daniel edwards says:

    Let’s just hope Showlad doesn’t see that table

    ;)

  10. Pollyowls says:

    Evening all…
    Reflections on another great race
    1. Aintree, take a bow: I think there were a number of us who were slightly worried by what might happen welfare-wise, but Aintree did a magnificent job in getting assistance to the horses immediately after the race. Obviously it wasn’t quite the same not having the winner come into the enclosure after the race… but the safety of the horses was paramount and it avoided any problems post-race. They also got the level of watering just right. We have to accept that fast ground Nationals may now be a thing of the past… but if it avoids the sort of safety debates we’ve had far too many of in the last 20 years, then it will have been worth it…
    2. Derek Fox – brilliant judgement or plain lucky..? A stunning performance by One For Arthur… in my nearly 40 years of watching Nationals I’ve never seen a horse win from being 18th or 19th at the Canal Turn 2nd time round. Many of us thought the horse was either a soft ground specialist (by the sound of it, connections weren’t sure, either) or would be found out by the lack of a recent run, or the hold-up tactics wouldn’t be successful. In the end, he almost got there too soon. However, in my opinion, the technique worked only because it was the most trouble-free National I can ever remember… 13 of the 21 non-finishers pulled up, a proportion we’ve never seen before. Hardly any fallers to be hampered by, no pile-ups to avoid – you don’t have a safety net if you come from that far behind, everything has to fall into place perfectly. It did… and good luck to them, but it’s still not the ideal way to win a National…and it’s certainly not going to work every year.
    3. Hard luck stories – a few.. but too few to mention: I thought there were two. Thunder And Roses being knocked out by a loose horse, and Definitly Red’s saddle slipping. The rest went in the sort of incidents that are ten-a-penny in the National every year.

    So, where does that leave us in terms of finding the winner. Well, we were more successful as a group this year.. but still One For Arthur barely made our Top 10 in the final vote.
    Personally, my top six were 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 10th, plus two fallers.. not bad but not brilliant either. I hoped The Young Master might be the one.. but the antics at the start probably got him too wound up and I didn’t feel comfortable about his chance even before he fell.
    Before Ruby’s rodeo ride at 2nd Valentines, I thought Pleasant Company was travelling like a winner. In truth, I think the petrol would have run out anyway, but he’d have finished a lot closer. Houblon could never go with the pace.. he just kept on past a lot of non-stayers.

    The way forward for next year… well there’s plenty of time to look at that!! Form over 3m4f+ looks to be paramount now, so I think that should be the main focus.
    I just hope next year will be the year..!!

  11. Supersub says:

    Thanks daniel.

    It’s only a bit of fun. The standard was good this year. super keno won with 277pts last year so it goes to show what a great effort it was from Out Cider.

  12. super keno says:

    Well done Out Cider, I’m more than happy to hand over the crown!! Just hope you backed your top 6, you’ll be quids in if you did!!

    Good work LV for sorting out the vote and Supersub for sorting the King of the National comp :)

  13. daniel edwards says:

    Good write up

    One For Arthur 15th on our table

    Interesting to note his only two naps came after the original voting deadline!!

    Without those he would have been well done the list

  14. Supersub says:

    I watched the race back again earlier on and I knew the winner had made up lot of ground from the second canal turn but the speed with which he did it was incredible. He’s certainly no soft ground plodder and you need a lot of class to do what he did.

    There is no doubt he is a far better horse than any of us realised and he’s totally hacked up in the end.

    Will be interesting to see what Phil does now. TLS got 12lbs for coming second last year so Arthur looks like getting clobbered by at least a stone.

    Will be tough for him to follow up next year but he appears to have the speed, class and stamina to give it a damn good go.

  15. mandie says:

    mike.n hi,and yes I backed Arthur in jan at hills for 33s. I actually backed all my six.
    also got blaklion JUST as again backed early and only got the 4 places on offer at the time.
    was abit worried when vicente went down and then the unlucky thunder and deff.red but good result in the end.
    l.v once again thanks very much for all your work, it has been enjoyable.

  16. daniel edwards says:

    That jump when Arthur knocked Blaklion…. Woof!

    He made about 3 lengths, and Blaklion jumped it well!

  17. Lucky Vane says:

    It was a real pleasure to keep everyone’s score in the final round. A few newcomers joining and I was keeping tags on any post pending. Some posted in wrong thread, make sure you put your vote in the voting page please.
    The was a few voting for Bless The Wings and his fate wasn’t to be known until Thursday Lunch. I followed the instructions as close as I could, but felt people needed to be more decisive. The was also a lot of votes changed. I don’t mind people changing their minds, but please help me out by putting the old vote up as well, so I can make comparisons. My vote was a little long winded but felt it was needed to explain how my vote came about, because someone might say that because I was keeping score that the table would influence my voting. Believe me the was no table until Thursday night, the was however notes on bits of card.

    Not sure whether to do a vote after Welsh National next season, Darren didn’t seem to put one up this year. I must say I enjoy an early vote before we know whose running. It the time to put who you think could make the Grand National, not who would which was why Native River appeared in my early vote.

  18. Out Cider says:

    Firstly I’d like to thank Lucky Vane for running the GN vote, without whom I would not have the pleasure of being crowned the 2017 king of the national. I did back them & I did celebrate (too much) and I most definitely did suffer, that’s why only now I’m ready to accept the crown from Super Keno.
    I spend hours working on my selections, the race fascinates me, it really is quite satisfying when those hours get paid off.
    1977 was the 1st one I remember Peter O Sullivan calling home Red Rum, from that moment I was hooked.
    I first went to the National in 2004 watched Amberliegh house finish like a train & I don’t think I’ve seen any horse since finish as strongly, until Saturday One for Arthur wasn’t even mentioned in commentary until almost the 2nd last, where he announced his intentions to Blacklion to move over and gallop to victory. I went to every National from 2004 to 2015, I intend to be there again in 2018 to defend my crown.
    Had to watch the race at work this year, i was on a day shift with my firefighter colleagues, thank god we didn’t get any calls during the race, although the picture on the TV kept freezing thanks to one of my workmates covering the satalite dish, yeah really funny!
    Of my selections & how I chose them, One for Arthur, I just thought he improved each time for distance and staying on comments.
    Cause of causes – his 27 lengths defeat in 2015 as a 7 yr old and recent form

    Saint Are – It was easy to forgive his 2016 result, his 2nd in 2015, the groind and Jockey were all positives & Aintree form, brilliant effort.

    Blacklion- always had this one down as tough & gritty who had the minerals to mix it up at the sharp end.

    I will forgive TLS I think it’s far too early to write this one off and could well see a top six finish next year if the prep goes well.
    Disappointed with JAP, I doubt he will line up next year if he does I shall put a line through him 1st.
    I love reading the thoughts on here of people who clearly get it, I look forward to defending my crown in 2018 & I shall wear it with pride for the next 12 months

  19. majorattraction says:

    Congratulations Out Cider, well done, a very gracious speech with thanks all going in the right directions.

    Have thoroughly enjoyed the blog this year thanks again to all contributors especially L.V. and Supersub for all the hard work with the table and competition etc, lets hope the votes table is as informative and successful next year!

  20. daniel edwards says:

    Re the stats approach, I still think it is best to increase your chances of finding the winner by looking at the horses that meet the strongest stats.

    The placed in a C1 chase over 27f or more looks even stronger given the first four home (and 6th and 7th) all met it, despite under half the field meeting it

    Previous years back this up too. I have looked and looked, but I cannot find another stat that is as strong (when you take into account the number of runners that meet it each year)

    Maybe that can be our job for the summer?! Try and find a better stat. ..

  21. majorattraction says:

    I realize that this is hardly a tried and tested stat and more of a coincidence ( aren’t all stats?) and I cannot recall where I picked up the information but I noted it 21/03/2017, it may even been on this site!

    Since 2006 there have now been six winners that have been allotted 10st 6lb on the initial post entry weights list, this includes One For Arthur. It is only 50%, but for a quick scatter gun approach it is not a bad guide.

  22. daniel edwards says:

    As you say, a coincidence surely, but interesting nonetheless!

  23. Seven Towers says:

    Funnily enough the winner would have scored 80 points using my old ‘consigned to the bin’ system that failed miserably in the last two years but a fair few of them would have scored above the 72.5 points I would have used including the 2nd, 3rd, 5th. Blaklion and Vieux Lion Rouge failed because one of the criteria in that scoring system was won/placed in 3m 4f+ chase with 14+ runners and of course the GN Trial had 13. Harsh but that’s how it would have been scored.

    Have checked and the horses that scored 72.5 or above were

    One For Arthur
    The Last Samuri
    Cause of Causes
    Saint Are
    Gas Line Boy
    Just A Par
    Houblon Des Obeaux
    Goodtoknow
    Thunder & Roses
    Rogue Angel
    Raz De Maree
    Vicente
    The Young Master

    Not that helpful in the grand scheme of things when there is that many i.e.35% of the field. May wheel it out next year just in case the race is settling down to something more predictable.

    I am the best tipster in the world when hindsight is on my side.

    The horses in the first five are almost certain to score enough already for next year, that much I do know but number of runs will still be important as it will for all of them. Tiger Roll will almost certainly be up there too as probably will Mysteree.

    Native River I am pretty certain will be top however. But is very unlikely to run.

  24. pablo says:

    Well done winners!

    Missed the race live unfortunately and didn’t even get round to having a bet in the race – circumstances out of my control

    Winner was mightily impressive

    For me the single most important contribution to this blog has been speedyseagull’s ‘stayed on’ analysis

  25. pablo says:

    The problem with ‘stats’ is that their purpose appears to be to shortcut form analysis and watching videos

  26. Pollyowls says:

    Pollyowls – Submitted on 2017/04/03 at 1:39 pm
    Here’s a stat for you…
    Of the last 28 winners, 25 had their first run of their National winning season on or before Hennessy GC day… that’s an 89% strike-rate!!
    The three exceptions are Miinnehoma (1994), Royal Athlete (1995) and Ballabriggs (2011) – the first two had both had 14 months off before their comeback runs…

    So, these are this year’s horses that would not qualify under this stat…
    Shantou Flyer, Wonderful Charm, Tenor Nivernais, The Young Master, Vieux Lion Rouge, Houblon Des Obeaux, Pleasant Company, O’Faolains Boy, Highland Lodge, Just A Par, Measureofmydreams, Pendra, Cocktails At Dawn, Knock House
    _____________________________________

    Make it 26 out of 29… that’s now nearly 90%, and every year since 2011
    One For Arthur’s first run of the season was on 22nd October… some five weeks before the Hennessy

  27. pablo says:

    The other problem being that it’s difficult not to read/contribute to this blog and not get involved with stats!

  28. daniel edwards says:

    Nice one Pollyowls

    Would be interested to know how many places horses in recent years met that stat

  29. Showlad says:

    Oh Daniel you are awful ;) You weren’t far ahead of me ha ha :)

    As a team though with some bookies paying 6 places we did provide 3 ew returns (Blaklion, Cause and Vieux) so you would have still have made a small profit from our tips top 6 table.

    I would like to contribute one very valid point. I do think out table reflects the ‘latest runs’ quite heavily. Apart from the length of his last run Arthur did feature in more Top 6′s early doors and I think the distance in memory of his last run did affect his placing and that we award points more on those current runs and those who have fared well more recently.

    Still…3 runs in the frame again and the time since last run…this is more becoming a ‘gut’ pick than a stats pick which is what you are left with anyway once applying the stats.

  30. pablo says:

    From spreadsheet…

    Year; Number without a run on or before Hennessy Day; Positions in top 4 without a run on or before Hennessy Day
    2007; 10; 4th
    2008; 12; 2nd
    2009; 10;
    2010; 13; 2nd, 4th
    2011; 12; 1st, 3rd, 4th
    2012; 16;
    2013; 12;
    2014; 10;
    2015; 14;
    2016; 12; 4th

  31. Lucky Vane says:

    Can I just add that Green Goddess and Corbiere did an excellent job keeping us appraised of the weather affecting the going on the day, so that anyone who reads our so called blog can make their own minds up, with the full facts.

  32. daniel edwards says:

    So 121 runners in those 10 years

    8 placed in that time

    From that many runners it should be 12

    And none to add this year so yes, they do seem to struggle as a whole

    Maybe because if you haven’t got them on the track by then something tends to have gone wrong with the prep?

  33. daniel edwards says:

    Tell me about it Showlad

    ;)

    If someone has time why not add together the past 2 years (I don’t think it was run before then) to see which of us who entered both times is top (and bottom)

    ?!

  34. Mike N says:

    daniel edwards says:
    April 10, 2017 at 9:22 am
    The placed in a C1 chase over 27f or more looks even stronger given the first four home (and 6th and 7th) all met it, despite under half the field meeting it
    Previous years back this up too. I have looked and looked, but I cannot find another stat that is as strong (when you take into account the number of runners that meet it each year)
    Maybe that can be our job for the summer?! Try and find a better stat. ..

    ——————————————————–

    ran in 10 or more chases? ;)

  35. Pollyowls says:

    Interesting to note… there was much discussion on here before the race about how relevant form LTO is…
    This year’s top 6 LTO form was… 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 1st…
    Maybe it’s more relevant than we thought..?

  36. Pollyowls says:

    To open up that debate a little bit, since the changes were made to the National after 2012, the LTO form of the top 6 can be summarised as follows:
    2017: 1,1,2,2,4,1
    2016: 4,1,L,5,2,3
    2015: 6,1,0,5,1,2
    2014: 3,1,6,P,2,4
    2013: 5,2,0,0,3,0
    In summary: 30 placings – 7 x 1st, 6 x 2nd, 3 x 3rd, 3 x 4th – 19 placed in first four, only 1 DNF

    My conclusion would be that form LTO is certainly more desirable than not…

  37. Corbiere says:

    Hi one and all, sorry it’s taken so long to contribute since last posted thursday I think.
    Had grand kids for weekend and so haven’t even had time to read any posts, until now and just caught up on them all.
    Firstly the most important thing first . A huge thank you to all contributors on here this year, it has as always been most informative, enjoyable, a great read, a great crack. brilliant work from lots of different people.
    Special thanks to Darren without whom we wouldn’t have a blog.
    Special thanks to those who keep and update the table.
    Special well done to Out Cider
    A big well done to all of you who backed the winner & placed horses.

    Well onto my good news,believe it or not after all the pontificating after all those months and despite never mentioning the winner in my top six. I ended up backing the first 4 for the first time ever.
    Cause of Causes, Saint Are & Blaklion all feautured in my final top six. BUT and here is my good news, is if you refer back to my final deliberations about wednesday/thursday last week I think. I posted 4 posts
    Those I didn’t think could win
    Those I wasn’t backing but was a little concerned about (of which there were many)
    Those I was still considering backing (A list comprising of just 2 horses One For Arthur & Ballynagour)
    Those I had backed (far too many, this year)
    Anyway on the day I waited and when Ballynagour touched 100/1 I backed £1 ew
    One For Arthur 14/1 opening show in my bookies didn’t tempt me as it had been this price for ages.
    Anyway when it drifted to 16/1 I was in with a tenner on the nose.
    Then left that bookies and on the way back home I popped in to Hills as they have 4 different enhanced bets every 15 minutes on the race day between 12 noon – 1pm.
    So imagine when I popped in at 12,45pm to see One For Arthur as their last price boost of 20/1, I just had to go in again as I was a bit miffed at not getting best last day price, so another tenner.
    Long and short best GN result EVER for me.
    Then finished weekend off with another great win on Garcia in US Masters.

  38. Lucky Vane says:

    That’s great news Corbs ;)

    Pity you didn’t double your national bet with the golf bet, as the owners was “two golf widows”. Maybe stretching your luck a little.

    Out cider well done in our fun competition King or Queen of the top six votes league. Hope you had a profitable national, I certainly had ;) and keep yourself safe in your important job mate. :D

  39. Corbiere says:

    Daniel
    I am mystified !
    As I said at the time I found your early work on here an extremely intelligent and interesting way of approaching HOW TO PICK THE WINNER. I noted down your POST on my worksheet, timed 3.48pm on Feb 16
    Which even though I don’t think you gave your work that title, that’s what I took it to be.
    After you posted numerous times I wrote down on a sheet of paper your (in my opinion) most important points I gleaned from your work. If I misquote you I apologise in advance.
    The sweet spot is horses that run between 9-19 times
    Don’t ignore those with 8
    9-14 chase runs is perfect (ONE FOR ARTHUR had 10)
    Age 8-11 is best (ONE FOR ARTHUR aged 8)
    4 or more runs is a bonus but NOT ESSENTIAL (ONE FOR ARTHUR had 3)
    MOST IMPORTANT STAT:
    Chase place over 27f or more in Class 1 (ONE FOR ARTHUR qualified ) 8/10 stat for Winners, 16/20 if you go back further.
    Probably best if run once after weights issued, but NOT ESSENTIAL IF HORSE PROVEN TO RUN WELL FRESH.
    I took notice of all of the above and I narrowed it down to approx 6 horses , sorry can’t find my list now, but ONE FOR ARTHUR qualified.
    So a big thank you for pointing me in right direction.

  40. Corbiere says:

    Sorry one error I made in last post was, you said look for a horse that has run between
    9-19 times (THE SWEET SPOT IS BETWEEN 9-14 TIMES)

  41. daniel edwards says:

    Minimum of 10 chase runs is good BUT

    1. It is less than 5 horses a year that fail to meet this stat, so it isn’t surprising they don’t crop up often

    2. We have had a fair few winners on 10 or 11 and an increasing number of second season chasers are winning. Can we be confident this will hold up? I reckon it’s the next stat to go myself

    In the meantime though;

    Before this year, in the last 7 years those with 10 chase runs or more accounted for 245 of the 278 runners

    This ought to have produced around 24 to 25 placed horses.

    In fact they have produced 26. So in other words their performance is less than 10 percent above average

    Note though, 7 of the last 10 winners have had 9 to 14 chase runs, despite them only producing 37 percent of the runners

  42. daniel edwards says:

    Corbiere

    See my post at the weekend. I make the sweet spot 9 to 17

    But yeah, either way horses with high teens into the twenties are starting to look exposed in this race

  43. daniel edwards says:

    Happy to have helped someone if not myself but I dare say those rules would have thrown up a dozen or so!

    My perfect horse system did OK though. Only 2 horses met it one of which placed if you’d backed both you would have broken even or made an almost non existent profit

    I will be interested to see how it holds up next year

  44. Systemsman says:

    Well done Team. I did not post much this year but did look in from time to time as i have down graded this as a serious investment to a great fun investment. Manged to put on the odd £5 her there and everywhere from declarations on and no non runners. Managed to get the winner due to the teams high placing of One For Arthur after declarations (at each stage alter the team dropped him lower) and as he had done well (won) in a 28f+ race i was happy to back him. He was also in my own top 6 first vote.

    So on reflection i think the Team did do well this year and some key trend still stand.

    Loved the race!!!

  45. daniel edwards says:

    Corbiere

    Here is the list of my 27f plus horses I put up before the race:

    The Last Samurai
    Blaklion
    The Young Master
    Cause of Causes
    Vieux Lion Rouge

    Houblon Des Obeaux
    One for Arthur
    Bishops Road
    Lord Windemere
    Saint Are

    Vicente
    Just a Par
    Measureofmydreams
    Raz De Maree
    Rogue Angel

    Thunder & Roses
    Goodtoknow

    I don’t have all the data in front of me but how many of those get a black line through them for failing one of the other criteria you quote above

    ?

    Measureofmydreams for only 6 chase runs I guess. Who else?

  46. daniel edwards says:

    Raz da Maree for being 12

  47. Systemsman says:

    This was my last vote which appears to be not counted in the votes as it appear i was not aware there was one last points counting vote

    Can someone tell me (just for my own interest) what total points would i have got had i voted one last time.

    Systemsman says:
    March 23, 2017 at 10:36 am
    Systemsmans vote:

    6pts Blaklion 4th
    5pts Vieux Lion Rouge 6th
    4pts Cause Of Causes 2nd
    3pts One For Arthur 1st
    2pts The Last Samuri 16th
    1pt Ucello Conti UR

  48. Lucky Vane says:

    Sorry for missing your vote Systemman, thought it was for the second stage elimination round, not the 5 day declaration round. Too be honest I thought that for Walsh81 too. His had Maggio who became a non runner after the 5 day stage.

    Just to clarify we have because sometimes I get into a muddle about it myself. :?

    Round one : After christmas
    Round two: After Weights published
    Round three: After first stage elimination
    Round four :After Cheltenham Festival which includes second stage elimination
    Final Round After 5 day declaration, but before the final 40 and 4 reserves are known.

  49. Supersub says:

    Systemsman, you would have scored 346pts in my King of the National competition if they had been your final choices, so you would have finished second.

  50. Supersub says:

    Given how easy OFA ended up winning Saturday’s race what do we think of his chances of a follow up next year?

    Clearly it will be tough as he won off a mark of 148 on Saturday and given the facile nature of the victory, he is going to be put up 14-16lbs if we’re using TLS as a guide. He went up 12lbs for finishing second last year, so I suspect OFA will be rated around 165 next year and will almost certainly carry top weight.

    He defied a rise of 11lbs from Warwick at the weekend and absolutely hacked up so he clearly had plenty in hand. It would be some feat if he could do it and what a great story that would be.

    I felt quite optimistic about Many Clouds chances of becoming a duel winner as he carried 11-09 to victory so could only carry one extra pound on his back the following year no matter what Phil did with his rating. OFA carried 10-11 on Saturday so is likely to carry an extra 13lbs on his back next year. It is hard to carry the same optimism forward even though he was an easier and more impressive winner than MC.

    It will certainly be interesting to see how he is campaigned next season. Given the speed and class he showed, as well as his ability to handle a decent surface at Class 1 level, you would have to say that he wouldn’t look out of place in a Gold Cup. That said, if their priority is to try and win the National again next year then Cheltenham would not be the best route to take.

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