The weights for the 2016 Grand National were published last week.
Please add your thoughts and tips for the 2016 Grand National to this page.
So far very unlucky for Kerry Lee, Fergal O’Brien and Dr Richard Newland who all look like missing out with 2 horses each in the 14 immediately below cut off point.
Trainers will have to totally rethink way of approaching race in the future.
Not sure I can see any potential non runners now , unless through injury or sickness.
I think that is the argument for letting the Beecher winner and previous year’s GN 1-2-3-4 qualify automatically for the race. I’d even stretch that to the Topham, Foxhunters and the Grand Sefton too. That way, the Mcmanus’ of this world could do nothing to stop them from running. If say On The Fringe was then automatically qualified having won the Foxhunters then McManus could not leave him in the GN field as a ‘spoiler’ because if his intention was to run him in the Foxhunters once again, he would have to pull him out of the GN before the Friday cut off in order to run in it.
The difficult bit would be what mark they run off in the GN and how they would be campaigned. I certainly wouldn’t advocate any races away from Aintree being considered for auto qualification.
Now is the time to introduce both an aintree and a long distance factor here imo, if Phil could fiddle and compress for years to encourage class, surely he can do the same for these specialists and stayers at the other end. I thought he was going to a few years ago?? It could afterall help keep fallers and fatalities down even with course changes esp if the experience and distance bar was raised.
It is rather sad for national hunt season and trainers if horses that are still suited to this race can’t get in. Maybe limiting numbers with trainers is a way of keeping a balance and easier to justify as token fairness. Kerry Lee looking like not having a runner!? Horses slipping through the ranks often because of fragility or injury from reasonable success in this race or similar still remains…. Monbeg Dude not seen since his good effort! Double Seven has had his problems and misses out on lining up even though placed 2yrs ago. Its not looking too clever to me.
we used to have auto qualification regardless of mark for the first 4 in the Maryland Hunt Cup and Pardabika…. It’s A Snip took advantage and was guaranteed a place despite a very low weight in 1995…in the end there wasn’t a maximum field anyway that year…. I think the race needs the regulars…. but how we go about it needs long thought as if Pineau was 15 and in terrible form, we wouldn’t still be saying he should be running because he won some years before…. This isn’t new…>Silver Birch was eliminated as first reserve as a 13 year old too…..
I don’t have a particular problem with PDR or Double Seven not qualifying. Alvarado and Highland Lodge are the one’s I feel sorry for. I think only those that have won or placed (GN only) over the National fences in the previous calendar year should auto qualify. I don’t think you could stretch that any further.
If Mike C is thinking the why I am The Grand National is evolving no one can deny that The prize money is really good the course is so much safer now there has been no fatalities for the last three years I think I am right so trainers are starting to risk their group horses more and more.Look at some of the horses not making the cut these would have gotten in the last 10 Grand Nationals this is becoming a group/handicap race.
Agree Scotty. A horse like PDR could be akin to the old Open Champions being invited back year on year and allowed to hack their way through the course before inevitably fading away.
What makes this all doubly ridiculous is that we have a horse, commendable though he is, that hasn’t even won a chase running in the race. How the hell is that possible?
The problem with new rules is someone is always going to lose out.
Phil Smith is the problem here not the solution. Don’t want him tinkering with anything. Should be in the background not centre stage.
I think it’s time that Phil stopped playing God and did away with compression completely.
Also the idea of qualifiers depresses me – this isn’t the Pertemps Final ffs!
There’s no longer any need to provide an incentive for so-called better horses to run in the race.
The GN was still great with loads of horses running from out of the handicap. It still happens in the Scottish GN from time to time and no one complains about it.
Enter your horse and you’ll know the OR if GB-trained, or you’ll get your handicap OR if not GB-trained (as you would for any other GB handicap), and move on. If you get in good luck to you, if you don’t tough luck.
I think this year is exceptional with the number of runners for JP etc., this could be and probably is due to the face off between Mullins and Nicholls for the trainers championship, after-all if you throw enough mud some will stick.
Maybe if limiting the number of runners per owner is a no go, then the qualification of runners should be looked at, lets say have to have been placed in the first 3/4 of a 27f race?
7T, I less of an issue with RTW running after 13 chases and a 2nd in a Irish National than ONIV with just 4 chases….thats not on
The National does resemble the Pertemps Final a lot more than it use to, it has to be said!
I mean if the prize money and prestige isn’t enough for connections of higher-rated horses they can do one!
They don’t need any help from Phil Smith.
But without Phil Smith’s tinkering, there’d be no excuse for a nice lunch.
I hear the canapes were to die for this year.
I don’t believe there should be too much tinkering I just think that the Aintree factor should be taken into account with all horses on the same weight.
Let’s face it ORs weren’t stuck to religiously when the weights were originally framed so why should they be in this situation?
Not talking through my pocket as I haven’t backed any of the horses concerned but as a fan of the race I believe past efforts should count for something.
True – lunch is important
Prize money rewards good performances doesn’t it?
Alvarado has earned £100k from the race and two visits to the winner’s enclosure
Pineau £500k for winning
Plenty of reward – not good enough to get in this year is plain tough. Be thankful for what you’ve got.
I think the only way to make it fair and not tinker the handicapping going forward is…
(i) limit the owner to have no more than 2 in the race.
(ii) limit the trainer to have no more than 3 in the race.
That way you will continue to get a mix of big and smaller connections. How do I get this across to the BHA.
sory Mike, Thats a total non-starter…..not the way to go at all
But then one day Rich Ricci will have two runners, his missus will have two runners, the family wabbit will have two runners, the wabbit and the wife together will have two runners…………
everyone’s favourite jockey, James Reveley, nows ride Vieux Lion Rouge for David Pipe…..hmmm
………and eventually you will indubitably have lots of wabbits with runners.
oh…and David says Tom will now ride Ballynagour and Connor on Soll….a swap around.
well if my suggestion is a non starter then we best leave it alone.
Well, he was always ‘DP’ to me rather than David, that was until I typed his initials into Google one day and got more than I bargained for. I’m back to calling him David now too.
It’s not so much a ‘non starter’ Mike, it’s just an awful lot of wabbits.
I went for a drink lunchtime…………is it obvious?
Today after a cool , dry morning with a drying breeze, it has now given way to glorious sunshine and Many Clouds, big puffy ones.
Showlad, I managed to get a line full of bedding dry today. Tee Hee !!!
The only withdrawal I can see could be RTW.
can anyone explain why Katenko is in? – done nothing for the last 2 years. when Alvarado has 4th place in the last 2 nationals.
Butts, agreed Katenko is a stinker, but he has dropped a long way in the handicap already from his peak but was still rated high enough in February when the weights came out to merit his place….his current rating would not let him in…
RTW is very much an intended runner…..Katenko, Gilgamboa, Pendra or an injury is where I think out eyes need to be peeled if any might come out….Ballycasey a very remote chance (Sir des Champs even remoter) of switching to the Topham too
Please bring this thread to a close.
A new GN thread is now open
Thanks for all your analysis for the past number of months. I don’t think restricting the number of horses an owner or trainer has in race will work. However, I do think that a rule should be brought in that a horse wins a race in excess of 3 Miles. During the winter a few horses got in to the National for been placed in small fields.
Seven Towers, maybe you should have used reverse logic to Vic Campus, the fact he was still up there on 72.5 with reduced scoring for his age, must mean he score highly in other areas. The winner scored 40, I bet that’s because he was a maiden in chases.