Grand National 2012 – Initial Entry Stage
The initial entries for the Grand National 2012 will be made on Tuesday 31st January so the move towards finding out just who will be involved in the world’s biggest horse race will be that bit closer in just over a weeks time.
Some ante-post fingers have been burnt (including my own!) with the loss of the likes of Poker De Sivola, Beshabar, Don’t Push It and Oscar Time from the race already but the prospect is there for some exciting new faces to the race such as Junior, Synchronised, Cappa Bleu and Neptune Collonges to name but a few.
We are also likely to see Grand National stalwarts such as Niche Market, State Of Play and Big Fella Thanks entered again and there undoubtedly will be some surprise entries to get us all scrambling for the form books.
Are you any closer to narrowing down your selections for the race? Let us know who you are considering for the Grand National 2012.
PS Here are the details I have found for entries/weights etc but these aren’t from the Aintree site so not official. If anyone can confirm these please do:
12pm, 31st January – Initial Entry Stage
??pm 14th February – Weights
12pm 28th February – Forfeit Stage
12pm 20th March – Further Forfeit Stage
12pm, 9th April – Confirmation Of Entry Stage
This post has 562 comments
#1
January 25th, 2012 00:14
Off to Chelts Saturday for the Trials day including The Argento.
Mixed feelings re Midnight Chase, want him to stay on current mark , but will enjoy watching him win well and ruin his mark too!
#2
January 25th, 2012 01:09
For anyone interested a full ( I think ) profile of Mr Frisk.
A point to pointer until 86-87
Form 86-87; 11211101
The 0 was 5th place in RSA.
Form 87-88; 22f113
The fall was in servo/morson 28f h’cap chase at Cheltenham at November meeting(Dont Push It came 2nd) the 3rd was in Racing Post chase.
That leads on to 88-89 (available in RP)
Overall; 28 chases; 12 wins;
43% win s/r; 68% win place s/r;
21 h’cap chases; 8 wins;
28 chases; 75% h’caps
1 fall/ur
I think his biggest win was 13k, 29f Sandown Jan ’89, one of his last 9 chases.
#3
January 25th, 2012 01:16
Mr Frisk’s 1 year before stats;
22 chases; 11 chase wins; 50% win s/r;
73% win place s/r;15 h’caps-7 wins; won at 29f.
#4
January 25th, 2012 11:21
Good stats on Mr Frisk, Crisp – where did you find them?
Any idea whether Seagram ran in the RSA as a Novice?
#5
January 25th, 2012 13:37
From RP website….Hope West End Rocker runs a top 6 but doesnt win, Phil will clobber him for sure.
Will be very interesting to see Junior, never won first time out and seven months is his longest lay off to date.
JOHN SMITH’S Grand National fancy Junior could have his Aintree warm-up at Haydock next month after he featured among 47 entries for the Betfred Grand National Trial on Saturday, February 18.
Junior, who stormed to Cheltenham Festival success last March, is 14-1 favourite with Sportingbet for the Aintree marathon, while he is a top-priced 20-1 with Ladbrokes.
The David Pipe-trained nine-year-old could be joined in the line-up at Haydock by Betfred Becher Chase scorer West End Rocker, who is a general 16-1 chance for the National.
The recognised National trial, run over 3m4f, has also attracted the attentions of Willie Mullins, who is responsible for seven entries including last year’s beaten Aintree favourite The Midnight Club.
Willie Mullins: holds seven entries
PICTURE: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
Mon Mome, who ran in this race before he sprung a 100-1 shock in the National in 2009, could also run along with Coral Welsh National winner Le Beau Bai.
Dickon White, managing director at Haydock, said: “These are really excellent entries for the Betfred Grand National Trial. There are some serious horses here.
“What particularly delights us is the interest in the race from trainers in Ireland. It all adds up to what is set to be a superb day’s racing.”
The weights for the Grand National will be released on Tuesday, February 14.
Got a smartphone? Check out our new mobile web app – featuring cards, results, betting, tips and more – just type m.racingpost.com into your phone’s web browser
#6
January 25th, 2012 15:06
The Haydock race has proved an ok guide to also rans running a big race in GN.
The problem is (and Haydock is my local track!) the ground is always very soft to heavy (the local saying is ‘how can you tell they are racing at Haydock….because its raining’…) and am afraid the GN, now it is a spring going on summer race, just doesnt get that ground anymore.
So SBN won doing handstands last year but gets to Aintree on good – good to firm ground and its utterly different.
Thats why last years Irish and Scots nats form might be more interesting as the ground was very Aintree.
Keeping an eye on Always Right to see if he can put his dire last run behind him…as now half my top 6 are out am having to look elsewhere!
One for the regulars: (hope it raises a smile!)
For Xmas my partner got me this fantastic framed print of a painting of the 1927 GN. I was besides myself like a 6 year old with joy and excitement. She had even researched it was the race that my namesake finished second in!!
The picture is of the field coming over Bechers from the classic camera angle on the landing side where you can see the whole fence.
Partner: ‘So you must be amongst all those horses!’
Having watched the race on Pathe Newsreel dozens of times the scene is of first Bechers. The horse disputing the lead came down but the jock caught the reins and he is virtually stood in the middle of the pic as the mid div part of the field stream over and by him.
I just haven’t the heart to tell Partner that Bovril III has already ‘passed through’ the pic as he was in the leading dozen…..!!!
It sits nicely on the wall next to the signed print (by Lord Oaksey, then John Lawrence) of Carrickbeg(ridden by Lord O who was second) and Owens Sedge (gorgeous grey owned by Gregory Peck no less who finished 6th!) coming over Bechers upsides…the classic picture angle from the side of the fence!!
That one is artistic license though as have the race on dvd and Carrickbeg is always near the front and Owens comes from the clouds (a la Character Building in ’10) for his ‘place’.
Hope smiles are raised!!
#7
January 25th, 2012 15:22
I must admit that WER will be a big loser for me if he prevails.
For me, I can’t have him at any price and not just because his price is prohibitive now. I was against him last year too and much of what I thought then still holds now.
His chasing career has been littered with errors and I am not at all convinced about what he beat, albeit easily, at Aintree. Plus Alan King has never really taken to the National, I’m not sure he likes it that much and as such I’m not completely convinced he has it in him to train a National winner. Big statement I know.
It never does to show your hand over the fences during the same season. You have to be a bit more canny about it.
#8
January 25th, 2012 15:39
The Lord O/Carrickbeg race was 1963 and for anyone interested
http://www.britishpathe.com/video/the-grand-national-1927
for an amazing piece of history!!
For anyone new, Bovril was owned and ridden by a gentleman who had a stately pile in Cumbria but the family were skint. He had ridden the horse in a few P2P’s and the odd low grade chase (for hunters)as well as hunting with him but the horse had to also ‘earn its corn’ and was a working beast on the estate.
Add to that that Bovril only had 1 eye (his right) which as doesn’t take much working out to be a massive disadvantage on a left-hand course!!
Said gent had to borrow the race entry fee and Bovril actually ‘delivered the milk’ on Weds before embarking on the train journey to Aintree for Fridays race.
He started at 100/1 (no bigger prices in those days) but should have been 999/1 by the modern Exchange (the devils toy!) system!
What followed (IMO) was the greatest effort ever in GN history. As Pathe shows 60-70% of the race you see a very competent rider (horse jumps like a stag apart from slight error at 13th and more tellingly either 29th or 30th) having to go round the outside (think it through…Bovril would always pull that way a tad to his eye side) so doing 5 1/2 miles…and at both Canal Turns (1st time round 2nd -4th came down infront of him thus forcing him almost in to the canal and adding 30 lengths: 2nd time a loose horse refused in front of him so he had to go straight on rather than angle the fence thus adding another 15-20 lengths) getting in to grief…and he loses to the fav. by 3/4′s of a length…..!!!!
Beat that!!!
#9
January 25th, 2012 15:48
To more up to date matters:
As Hen Knight still has the magic (re Somersby) and her and Terry B are mad keen in thinking Calgary Bay is a real GN sort….(came down way to early to say last year but that by itself might be clue enough)…any thoughts team???
#10
January 25th, 2012 15:56
Hen appears to be the only person hanging on to the age old addage a good 2 and a half mile horse is a good grand national candidate. maybe in the past when they hunted for the first circuit but that day is long gone.
#11
January 25th, 2012 16:10
Calgary Bay reminds me a bit of Blue Charm. I remember it well at the time that Blue Charm was described as a two and half miler even though he’d won over three. Don’t have any facts and figures to hand but didn’t Monty’s Pass primarily run short of three miles. How many three milers did he win before victory?
I think he would need the ground no worse than good but Taipan has shown he can produce a stayer and Phardante has had a placed horse in the race (I think these are his sire/damsires). Not a forlorn hope and a touch of class.
#12
January 25th, 2012 16:17
The one I can’t fathom is why is Elliott is going to enter Backstage again? Continues to clean up in PTP’s as is his wont but patently looked out of his depth in this grade last year. Would need a Mon Mome/Lazarus style turn around to prevail.
Having said that he would be one of the easier ones to draw a line through and that’s always a blessing.
#13
January 25th, 2012 16:19
Too may “is’s” there!
#14
January 25th, 2012 16:23
Thanks Graham and 7T.
Wasn’t Blue Charm 2nd? And I know Montys didnt have many (1 or 2) runs over 3m + (but he did fit the stats the team hold up for wins over 3m) but am with Graham that shorter distance horses dont get an easy ride for a circuit these days as its foot to the floor from the get go and not even the fences slow em down (see link to clip above for what they should be like ie watch horses in 1927 attempt to ‘brush through’ rather than jump and see them with a ‘F’ in the form book!!).
The pace of the race these days also means a horse like Giles Cross isnt worth looking at. It isnt that long ago that a plodder(not a criticism…a good old staying chaser) like Just So almost did the business (2nd to Miinnehomma) but no more sadly…
#15
January 25th, 2012 16:23
And can’t spell many
#16
January 25th, 2012 16:40
Maybe with Backstage its worth an entry as we might be due a ‘proper going’ race one year soon! In 2010 Backstage was looking good when he came down at 20th but last year didnt he have Paul C on board and he unfortunately rides eveything ‘out the back/exaggerated hold up’ style (see King Johns Castle) and this only works on few horses.
Not one I will be looking for but if it isnt Paul C on board I might glance again!
#17
January 25th, 2012 17:06
Matriarch – post 5
January 25th, 2012 13:37
“Hope West End Rocker runs a top 6 but doesnt win, Phil will clobber him for sure”.
MATRIARCH, MATRIARCH, calm down, it’s only WER nerves. The GN wts are out on the 14th FEB and the said GN trial is on the 18th FEB – too late for Phil to clobber any runner – too late.
#18
January 25th, 2012 17:07
backstage – french bred with no class 1 form and not guaranteed to stay. not for me. he was my big lay last year.
calgary bay – was on my trends shortlist last year but fancied others much more due to lack of form over 3m of further. 6th in a gold cup was about where it should have finished. i will probably reach the same conclusion this year I imagine.
just so – i was in liverpool that year and it rained all week. we backed just so at 50/1 and continued to do so the more it rained. was sick when it got beat but still made a killing. a plodder yes, but a special plodder to me!
quite like the look of adams island is the thyestes tomorrow.
#19
January 25th, 2012 17:53
Pablo; Mr Frisk info from The Times archive.
Don’t think Seagram ran in RSA.
Profile of Seagram; (may be still not 100% accurate yet!!)
Hurdling 14 runs, 3 wins, 50% win place s/r.
86-87 Ran in four novice chases (all less than 3 miles), won 2, 3rd once, one fall. I think he missed a season then with leg trouble?? Rest of career available on RP website.
Ran in 32 chases/81% h’caps; 11 wins; 34% win s/r; 67% win place s/r; 26 h’caps, 9 wins.
Biggest chase prize win came in last chase before winning GN.
3 falls/ur
1 year before stats; 25 chases; 9 wins;
64% win place s/r; 20 h’caps-7 wins.
#20
January 25th, 2012 17:53
Interesting too see if junior can be competitive now he is in the 150s.
#21
January 25th, 2012 17:58
Calgary Bay done me a nice favour last time. Not sure he wants a trip like this though. Not well handicapped either compared to others now that he won last time.
#22
January 25th, 2012 18:01
My fingers are crossed for a 3rd or 4th from BCICS tomorrow if he runs.
#23
January 25th, 2012 18:07
“MATRIARCH, MATRIARCH, calm down, it’s only WER nerves. The GN wts are out on the 14th FEB and the said GN trial is on the 18th FEB – too late for Phil to clobber any runner – too late”
Haha! Chill-pill taken MiinneH! Never got on to that important detail!
Thyestes tomorrow, last night I backed Some Target @ 16′s and Start Me Up @ 12′s. Bishop Looney niggling away at me but finished 13th LTO.
#24
January 25th, 2012 18:08
Just had a look. Not running.
#25
January 25th, 2012 19:52
Keep an eye on Seabass at Leopardst. on Sat.
keep hearing whispers about it….
Not sure if Ted W has GN in mind this year but it has caught the eyes of some shrewd judges (yup family…lol) over there…
Not sure the Thyestes will give us any clues. Likely candidates have all seemingly given it a swerve…
#26
January 25th, 2012 23:01
Betfred Grand National Trial on Saturday, February 18.
Going to be some race – many of the key runners entered. Would love to see Junior win (or 1/2/3 at least)after which his price will drop drop drop. Will also be looking at WER and The Midnight Club. The price on Junior can only shorten from here on in i think.
At this point WER and Junior still look the stand outs for the GN 2012.
#27
January 25th, 2012 23:08
BOVRIL III Can you give any info or not on Seabass age,pedigree,if ok on stats? No good waiting for horse to have bolted if you are giving us a first class whisper.Thanks anyway will defo give it a look on the day
#28
January 25th, 2012 23:55
Have got Start Me Up (win) and Some Target (e/w) tomorrow.
#29
January 25th, 2012 23:57
Snap speedy. I’ve got win on both.
#30
January 26th, 2012 04:36
Seabass 9yo CR 131.
Has just run up a 5 timer over 2 years (since jan’10)inc a 22k chase last time out. Ruby has been back to ride him specially in 3 of those (1 of others was a P2P). Had near a year off during the 5 timer with minor niggle.
Keeps being put up in class keeps winning.
Only poor run in record is on Gd ground. Prefers it soft.
Actually out of Turtle Island and has a mixed pedigree (Irish Pointer and staying hurdler on other side).
Apparently improving hand over fist.
#31
January 26th, 2012 09:14
What do you think he will have to do in this race to get in ? Any idea if any firms quoting price for big one ? You now have me very interested.
#32
January 26th, 2012 10:53
Crisp – thanks
#33
January 26th, 2012 12:05
Profile of GN runners that ran well in a championship race for Novices at Festival…
Debut in GN (15/21)
Age 8-11 (haven’t had a 12yo winner in past 21 runnings that was making debut in race)
Weight 11’5 or less (goes back to Red Rum)
RPR 150+ in championship Novices race at Festival(i.e. RSA or Arkle) – i.e. classy juvenile
RPR 150+ in handicap chase – i.e. capable of showing decent form in handicaps
RPR 150+ in chase that season – i.e. in form
1991 2nd Garrison Savannah
1994 1st Miinnehoma
2008 1st Comply Or Die
2008 3rd Snowy Morning
2010 1st Don’t Push It
Possible qualifiers this year:
Planet Of Sound (trainer has said owner wants to go for GN)
Quiscover Fontaine (may go for GN next year?)
Knockara Beau (don’t know what plans are)
All three fall down on some stats mentioned on this blog – but for me Planet Of Sound would be very interesting off 11’5 or less and would be my no. 1 ahead of Junior – come on Phil pull your finget out
#34
January 26th, 2012 15:39
Crikey blink an eye and I’ve 8 million posts to catch up on lol
Nice no effert, keeping on at end 3rd of 5 from Chicago today
#35
January 26th, 2012 15:59
hiya showlad,
see you have chic.grey on your initial list of 6 as i do, that is good as a pricewise recommendation to me LOL shame about oscar pal, would like your thoughts on killyglen when you have time.
#36
January 26th, 2012 16:25
CHICAGO GREY
Trainer said -
“I think people know all about Chicago Grey at this stage. He’s back over hurdles for the Galmoy Hurdle this afternoon and even though there are only five runners, it’s a very tough race. It’d be nice if he could pick up some prize money in what will be his final race before the Aintree Grand National”.
#37
January 26th, 2012 16:27
MINI, thanks for that, interesting thought he might have one more outing. on your fancy list?
#38
January 26th, 2012 16:49
If that’s his last prep run then it’s bye, bye, Chicago.
#39
January 26th, 2012 17:17
what you base that broad comment on? the fact that would make i estimate 79 days since last race stat aint that bad, with 4 prep runs and fresh, i’ll take my chance.
#40
January 26th, 2012 17:37
Running off the same mark as beating Beshabar at the Festival last year, gives Chicago a huge chance. A definite player.
#41
January 26th, 2012 17:38
Fair dinkum Mandie.
from crisp -
The biggest gap I found over the last 50 years or so was Specify’71, 12 weeks, 84 days since last run.
#42
January 26th, 2012 17:49
The GN trial on Feb 18th this year is 56 days before the GN.
#43
January 26th, 2012 20:06
hi all still gutted over oscar time just wonder if any thoughts on rare bob think he has same rating as oscar (150) and he beat him 8 lenghts on the bridal in a novice chase all be it over 2 and 1/2 miles any thoughts ?
#44
January 26th, 2012 20:54
Some info on Killyglen and Alfa Beat’s intentions for GN.
KILLYGLEN & ALFA BEAT ON COURSE FOR AINTREE HIGHLIGHT
This year’s John Smith’s Grand National countdown steps up a gear next week with the entries for the world’s greatest chase closing at noon on Tuesday, January 31.
The famous contest, which takes place over four and a half miles and 30 fences at Aintree on Saturday, April 14, carries a record prize fund of £975,000, with prize money extends to horses finishing ninth and 10th for the first time.
Killyglen was still very much in contention in last year’s John Smith’s Grand National when falling four fences out and a return to Aintree is on the agenda for the chaser, who is trained in County Antrim, Northern Ireland, by Stuart Crawford. The 10-year-old is currently a 25/1 chance with Betfred for this year’s race.
Crawford revealed: “We are hoping to head to Aintree again with Killyglen. On the one hand, I was delighted with the way he jumped the fences last year but on the other, it was obviously a little disappointing because he was going so well before he fell and the John Smith’s Grand National is such a hard race to win.
“I hope that the experience will serve him well and, if we can get him back there in the same kind of form with the same conditions, I would be hopeful that he can run a big race again. He’s a 10-year-old now but he has been lightly-raced throughout his career.
“We will look to give him one more run before the John Smith’s Grand National, probably at the start of March. Doncaster suits him well, so the Grimthorpe Chase is a possibility again. He will also be entered in the Premier Chase at Kelso, where we could meet Ballabriggs, and he will be given an entry for Leopardstown (March 4).”
John “Shark” Hanlon has yet to have a runner in the John Smith’s Grand National but the trainer looks set to saddle a leading contender in the form of Alfa Beat (a 33/1 chance with Betfred), who will get his preparation for Aintree underway with an outing over hurdles at Leopardstown on Sunday.
The County Carlow handler is aiming to continue the remarkable recent record of Irish trainers winning the John Smith’s Grand National at the first attempt, with Jimmy Mangan (2003 Monty’s Pass), Martin Brassil (2006 Numbersixvalverde) and Gordon Elliott (2007 Silver Birch) all having captured the race with their debut runner.
Alfa Beat was purchased by leading American jump owner Irvin Naylor last year with the intention of winning the John Smith’s Grand National and the eight-year-old already boasts a National win, having won the Kerry equivalent at Listowel on September 14.
Hanlon commented: “Alfa Beat runs on Sunday in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown, which will be a stepping stone in his preparation for the John Smith’s Grand National.
“He is in great form and I have been delighted with him over the winter. We wanted to give him a run over hurdles to get a run into him before going back over fences and he could have his final prep run before Aintree at Down Royal on March 17.
“The ground when he won at Listowel in September was too soft for him – he got through it but he definitely wants better ground.
“The owner is very keen on the John Smith’s Grand National and it’s great to have a horse that is going to be competitive in such a big race.”
Ballabriggs is currently Betfred’s 16/1 joint favourite for the John Smith’s Grand National as he bids to become the first horse since Red Rum to win back-to-back renewals. The 11-year-old was reported to be in rude health at last week’s media day at trainer Donald McCain’s Bankhouse Stables arranged by Aintree Racecourse and John Smith’s.
David Pipe enjoyed success in the John Smith’s Grand National with Comply Or Die in 2008 and the trainer is set to this year be represented by Junior (16/1), who has been victorious at both the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot over the past 18 months and joins Ballabriggs at the head of Betfred’s market.
Other notable contenders include West End Rocker (20/1), successful in the Listed Betfred Becher Handicap Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree on December 3, last season’s Scottish Grand National hero Beshabar (20/1) and Shakalaboomboom (20/1), who is set to try and further his Aintree credentials at Doncaster on Saturday.
Entries for the 2012 John Smith’s Grand National will be announced on Wednesday, February 1, and changes to this year’s race conditions include the stipulation that horses entered must be aged seven or above and must have been placed first, second, third or fourth in a chase of three miles or more before March 20, 2012.
Weights for the 2012 John Smith’s Grand National will be announced on Tuesday, February 14.
The 2011 festival witnessed a sell out attendance on Grand National Day and was the first time the event completely sold out in 30 years. Aintree’s famous Ladies’ Day, staged on Friday of the meeting, also sold out beforehand, while Liverpool Day, which opens the meeting on Thursday, saw an increased attendance.
The 2011 Grand National achieved a TV viewing audience of 8.8 million viewers in the UK alone, more than the FA Cup Final and received a 63% audience share of the available viewing audience.
Since last year’s festival, the John Smith’s Grand National has won the coveted title of Tourism Event of the Year at the Mersey Partnership Tourism Awards.
Latest availability on ticket and dining package for the 2012 John Smith’s Grand meeting can be found at http://www.aintree.co.uk.
For further information, please contact Emma Owen, Aintree’s Marketing and PR Manager
#45
January 26th, 2012 22:54
Hi aj have some news on Rare Bob, and Vic Venturi will post them probably at weekend.
#46
January 26th, 2012 23:55
Rare Bob
He is a very useful chaser and even won a Grade 1 as a novice, but he is one of those who just falls short of top class while being very high in the handicap. His big target this year is the Grand National and he could be very interesting. On his most recent outing he ran in the Becher Chase and ran a terrific race to finish 5th to West End Rocker. The ground was far too heavy for him, but he still showed he could jump the fences well and he will be far more effective on quicker ground. He will run in the Bobbyjo Chase next month at Fairyhouse as I have used that before for National horses.
Vic Venturi
He has been a grand servant, winning 7 times. Last year we prepared him specifically for the Grand National, but luck wasn’t on his side as he was brought down at the 2nd. This season he won a point to point earlier this month at Kilfeacle and I have a hunter chase at Leopardstown next week in mind for him. We have the option of going to Cheltenham for the Foxhunters or having another crack at the Grand National. I won’t rush into a decision and I suspect his next run will tell us which way to go. He is in very good heart at the moment.
SOURCE DESSIE HUGHES INTERVIEW FROM STRAIGHT FROM THE STABLES, WEEKENDER 25/01/12-29/01/12
#47
January 27th, 2012 00:56
anything about western charmer in the paper, neil?
#48
January 27th, 2012 01:25
Yes, Pablo but nothing about him going for the national.
His last win at Thurles was over a year ago but he has run some huge races in defeat since then, notably when 2nd in a grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown.
This season he has had 2 runs, the 1st an encouraging 3rd over hurdles at Fairyhouse over 18f before he finished down the field at Leopardstown over Xmas when he was still in need of the race. Thursday Thyeste Chase is his next engagement, and he will be much straighter as well as being sure to handle his big weight.
Paper was out on Wednesday so he’s he finished 14th and last and comment says he was never a factor.
QUOTES Willie Mullins, trainer of On His Own, said: “He disappointed at Leopardstown and had to prove himself. He got a great ride from David Casey, and his jumping was excellent. He may have one more run before the Grand National”.
#49
January 27th, 2012 01:28
Analyse of Thyestes chase:
The season gets better and better for Willie Mullins who saddled four runners for the annual highlight at his local track and hit the target with ON HIS OWN. The former Howard Johnson-trained gelding, who started his career in Ireland with Oliver McKiernan, had been expected to make a triumphant return in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown, where he was sent off the 7-2 favourite in a field of 26, but failed to make the impression that was so widely anticipated and was eventually brought down two out.
Showing absolutely no ill-effects here under a positive ride from David Casey he jumped well through the race and was in command from a long way out, eased down on the run-in with his rivals toiling.
Though this may not have been a vintage edition of a race that enjoys an honourable history it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of a victory that marks On His Own down as a Grand National prospect in the making.
Tullintain got into the race as a reserve following the defection of Start Me Up who coincidentally had finished one place behind him when the pair were placed behind the much-improved Seabass over a shorter trip at Limerick after Christmas. He took advantage of the opportunity with a career-best effort.
Not much has gone right for Jadanli since he defied near-unraceable conditions to win the Powers Gold Cup in 2010. His jumping was not entirely fluent but he stuck to his task in game fashion, again coping well with testing ground. His showing will be a morale-boost for his trainer who has had a quiet spell.
Like the winner, former point-to-point scorer Adams Island has been repatriated this season. His first two starts after his return had been worryingly poor, but he showed definite signs of a revival when third in the Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Leopardstown, and attracted good support in the market here as a result. He was never too far from the pace and there are more races to be won with him on this evidence.
Last season´s Troytown winner Jack The Busran a sound race under the penalty picked up at Navan earlier in the month. The veteran ended up well clear of Some Target who was in turn clear of the remainder headed by Tharawaat.
The Bishop Looney had run a gutsy race up to the point of his exit three out, while Glam Gerry, raised 20lb for an easy win in as weak contest at Leopardstown in his first handicap chase, was out of contention when unseating his rider at the last. The winner´s stablemates Shakervilz and Quadrillon were both pulled up. [AS]
#50
January 27th, 2012 01:34
Interesting winner of Thyestes: On His Own
Won it easy but maybe didnt beat much? Willie M seemed surprised he beat his other 3 let alone the rest. Owner keen for tilt at GN!!
Jumped great but it seemed the type of going that will be alien come Aintree. In the notebook tho!
RED A: Ted W seems to be of the old fashioned opinion of good 2 1/2 miler for Aintree as Seabass only seems to run 19f to 21f races tho has been entered for longer if not turned up on day (was in the Thyestes today for instance).
Needs a 1-2-3 Sat to go up the ratings and be certain of a run. Might be being aimed at 2013.
Well worth a cheeky £5 ew on Sat!
Miinne: Interesting re days from Hay. race to GN but as we have seen in the past, the ground at Hay will be suited to totally diff horse than the Aintree ground in mid April.
#51
January 27th, 2012 10:40
Bovril – I don’t think Walsh believes a 2.5 miler wins the GN – Papillon ran over 3m+ 11 times before he won GN
But take your point any horse rattling up a five-timer (4 in handicaps) is interesting – the ground on Saturday is now yielding from good
Do agree with Walsh about the World Hurdle not being a championship race though – generally for horses that haven’t the speed for the Champion Hurdle nor the class for the Gold Cup – real shame that Big Buck’s hasn’t been put back over fences so we can actually judge how good he is (of course if Grand Crus wins the Gold Cup then we have the answer)
#52
January 27th, 2012 12:36
hi a&s thanks for that i have backed rare bob vic venturi black apalachi & weird al at big prices on betfair but only because i thought they were overpriced intended to lay them and have a good bet on oscar time after the weights out now dont know what to do
#53
January 27th, 2012 13:02
Correction to preps run and last time out;
Gay Trip 16 ; 6
Specify 84 ; 5
Well To Do 36 ; 5
Red Rum 28 ; 8
Red Rum 28 ; 7
L’escargot 42 ; 4
RagTrade 42 ; 5
Red Rum 28 ; 7
Lucius 28 ; 9
Rubstic 18 ; 7
Ben Nevis 33 ; 5
Aldaniti 52 ; 1
Grittar 16 ; 4
Corbiere 23 ; 8
Hallo Dandy 21 ; 4
Last Suspect 25 ; 3
West Tip 14 ; 7
(7th at CheltFest won chase 14 days before GN!)
Maori Venture 22 ; 8
Rhyme N Reason 23 ; 8
Little Polveir 29 ; 8
Mr Frisk 25 ; 6
Seagram 23 ; 7
Party Politics 35 ; 4
Miinnehoma 23 ; 2
Royal Athlete 35 ; 4
Rough Quest 16 ; 6
Lord Gyllene 23 ; 6
Earth Summit 35 ; 5
Bobbyjo 24 ; 6
Papillon 20 ; 6
Red Marauder 42 ; 6
Bindaree 25 ; 6
Monty’s Pass 20 ; 4
Amberleigh House 28 ; 5
Hedgehunter 49 ; 6
Numbersixvalverde 27 ; 6
Silver Birch 32 ; 4
Comply Or Die 42 ; 4
Mon Mome 20 ; 6
Don’t Push It 23 ; 4
Ballabriggs 35 ; 3
……………………
Quite sure Little Polveir had at least 47% chase win place s/r chase 1 year before GN (same as Amberleigh House) may have been as high as 50%; between 45%-50% on raceday. Ran in at least 48 chases, won 7.
Suprisingly, I make it that the very classy Rhyme N Reason had a 43% chase win place s/r 1 year before and had ran in 14 chases, winning 3. His win place s/r did rise to 59% by raceday. He had already won Irish Nat, came 5th in Hennessy and then in GN winning season came 2nd in Welsh National and won Racing Post.
He had won 6 of 22 chases by raceday, 9 of 28 over fences/hurdles by raceday.
………………..
Chicago Grey; rather than that last time out stat, I’m more concerned about his performance in h’cap chases.
#54
January 27th, 2012 14:00
Very disappointing from Western Charmer yesterday
#55
January 27th, 2012 14:42
Aww they have taken my 2013 hot tip (Hold On Julio) out of Great Yorkshire (Skybet for all you young shavers) tomorrow.
Hope its just a ground thing….
Am keeping an eye on Calgary Bay and 1 or 2 others re GN but think Fruity O Rooney is the ‘interesting’ one…
#56
January 27th, 2012 16:11
Crisp,
When you posted the hcap % stat, I said at the time, bye, bye, Oscar and Chicago. Yesterday’s news, if it’s true, just rubber stamps my decision on Chicago.
To be fair to Chicago, if we go back far enough, he doesn’t break any stats but then neither would a 5 yr old or a 15 yr old. This game is all about odds, what are the chances of this or that happening and especially in this very unique race over 4 ½ mls with unique fences. Many top trainers and jockeys have never won this race and yet we are expecting Chicago’s trainer to win his second GN in 5 years, with a GREY horse on a 79 day break, with only 3 chase hcaps (no wins) under his belt, with all of his 4 chase wins on undulating tracks. In fact, apart from his first hurdle win, 6 of his 7 career wins have been on undulating tracks and I won’t mention his, sit out the back and read the paper, jockey.
I reckon his current price, even with Betfair, does not reflect the above, I would much prefer 100/1+. Mind you, if he does win, then any price is good – say no more.
Rhyme N Reason had a 43% chase win place s/r 1 year before – that opens the door for KILLYGLEN with 42%.
#57
January 27th, 2012 19:20
Miinnehoma- agree with you re Chicago Grey. The only thing worrying me from a point of not backing him is that he’s a got a useful profile (apart from h’caps, it’s only 1 stat albeit it looks quite a prominent one) and he’ll be on less than 11-5.
Killyglen- well by GN day last year I really thought I’d found a long priced winner!! What a cracker he ran.
“”crisp 73
January 26th, 2011 19:20
…. Sods law. A ‘Presenting’ offspring will now surely win with all of us questioning their stamina! If this is the case, which one. Ballabriggs? Niche Market? Taking another old maxim, every dog has it’s day, what about Killyglen. Great stats apart from lack of key races but remember he won a 51k novice at Aintree.”"
Makes me laugh every time I read that because about five fences out it looked like a Presenting 1-2-3!!
Thinking that last year might have been the one for Killyglen. What was his RPR at Haydock when beaten by Cappa Bleu? Cappa Bleu (could be a good e/w shout in the GN) went to 3rd in Welsh National, Tamarinbleu and Mostly Bob have both won since that Haydock race. Killyglen would have to win a chase to get me to back him this year, last win April 09.
Have ruled out ‘Accordian’ horses? It might be time for my medication but like the look of According To Pete, very good stats, no key race but has probably dodged those handicapper bullets in the process. OR149,RPR153.
For those interested Little Polveir finished 5th in a Kim Muir and 2nd in a Servo/Morson 28f Cheltenham chase(Galaxy Rock 2011,Midnight Chase 2010, Dont Push It 2nd 2009)
#58
January 27th, 2012 20:41
4 days till entries published and where is the enthusiasm??? lol
I know we will all then debate the weights issue and likely runners on day re those near the top but am I the only one getting giddy?
I will just throw a thought spanner in to a good stat or two.
As this is prob.latest GN ever re date then will the ‘days since last run’ stat not matter as much and also as 4 weeks apart is Chelt run not the ‘anti’ it can be??
#59
January 27th, 2012 20:43
Keighley is getting desparate now with Any Currency. 20lbs+ inferior to most of his rivals he needs to be no more than 10 lengths off whoever wins at the very least. Could happen I suppose but to be honest I think this horse has been very poorly placed by his trainer this term.
#60
January 27th, 2012 21:02
Knockara Beau is such a decent horse but is with completely the wrong stable. It’s a real shame. So much potential wasted.
Jan Faltesjek has been banned twice for excessively hitting this horse, the same horse that has been his saviour and yet the BHA allow him to continue riding him.
Couple this with both the rider and trainer’s season thus far…..
…..not one winner between them for the entire season.
Bloody shame.
#61
January 27th, 2012 21:25
Re On His Own’s victory on Thursday. Very impressive but the one thing that stood out for me was the way he jumped the third & second last. You can’t be jumping fences like that at Aintree.
Also re Irish National form. This is all looking very strange. Of those that completed the race only two have won since and both are McManus horses in Quiscover Fontaine & Quantitativeeasing. It is in fact the horses that didn’t complete that have gone on to win more rules races i.e.
Synchronised (And how!)
See U Bob
Sebadee, and
Sarteano
All begin with “S”!!!
Backstage has won five more PTP’s since then but they don’t count for much it would seem.
#62
January 27th, 2012 22:01
this may be the drink speaking I am rather drunk,…but sounds like Thyestes not a pointer this term, again!? hav’ne seen it myself,…. but not been at all interested in western charmer or cicagho grey, however you spell it… Will watch tmw.
Killyglen, should be more interesting, looked like the sort last yr, but wasn’t convinced then!
looked like a tired fall after a mistake last yr, after a very good run, classic presenting?? as you say Crisp, not deja vu young hedgey when he fell at the last.
Knocara beau, Any Currency, Backstage… hear what you are saying 7T.
I’m more interested in Calgary Bay! pastures new are something we should definately double check here!
#63
January 27th, 2012 22:01
No 20/1 left on Junior (I missed a top up yesterday – will have to settle for 16/1 now)and thats even before he had a single run this season. Probably due to so few outstanding runners this year so far. Is he the real thing? – well we will know more when he has had a prep run or two.
Coming to the conclusion the winner will be in the top six in the betting on race day as this is now possibly just another top handicap chase even if very very special and at a marathon distance which still makes it that something extra special (and the anti post market). Many previous winners post war would not win today. But i do thing the bookies have the measure of this race. On the whole the winner needs class and speed with a winnable weight, so far 11.05 or less(a difficult combination).
So looking at top 17 (and top 7 look better)or so in the betting we should find the winner (baring a big win from now to GN day that will add to this list).
Top 17
Junior
Ballabriggs
West End Rocker
Synchronised
Beshabar
Shakalakaboomboom
The Midnight Club
On His Own
Chigago Grey
Niche Market
Cappa Bleu
Killyken
Always Right
Planet of Sound
Prince De Beauchene
Alfa beat
Midnight CHase
All 33/1 or less with main bookies. Now who fits the main trends best from this list? The winner is most likely to be 25/1 or less at the off.
#64
January 27th, 2012 22:18
entries…hahaa, indeed Bovril. I did enjoy watching pathe GNs the other day, inc Bovril at the canal turn and I remember a mare that one another seen on there, forget her name, making an extraordinary commitment to a total stand off jump! all or nothing right there!
I shall read all your finely considered points soon lol.
killyken?! systemsman alrming… gosh itscatching
#65
January 27th, 2012 23:13
Crisp,
I think Killyglen posted 146 in that race, maybe Pablo can confirm.
Chicago has been in my top 10 since Sept and apart from the 49/52 day stat and the hcap stat his other stats are very good. His chase win SR, which I think is important, is mighty @ 29% plus his chase place and life place SR are perfect. Wt. wise I reckon on OR150 he should end up with 11st and so would be dangerous to ignore. Perhaps as we get closer to the race things will become a little bit clearer.
The 2 horses that broke the above stats in the last 40 yrs had perhaps a better profile than Chicago – Specify ‘71 (84 days), I think you told us that he had 9 prep runs that season with a few wins and Grittar ‘82 (2 hcaps, no wins) had won the fox hunters over the GN fences the year before.
#66
January 27th, 2012 23:15
Crisp,
I was wondering when you would get around to Pete. After his last win I was thinking here we have an improving 11 yr old who has won his last 2 races – that rings a bell I thought, not Rambo part 2 is it. After looking into his profile I reckon this lad is different, this lad has a chance. Mighty stats including SR’s, dosage as good as Hedgehunter, class and better ground might be doubtful, no key race form except do you remember a post you did a few years ago about the PP Chelt chase re GN winners. I think you found that 5 or 6 GN winners ran in the race and finished 1st, 3rd, 5th or so – Pete 9/1 was 5th in ’09 to Tranquil Sea. The Peter Marsh C1 Hcap chase he won last week was worth 28k but when he was 3rd in the same race in ’10 it was worth 39k. The trainer is very keen to run in the GN as long as the wt is not over 11st, he said he might not bring him back for the GN trial slog on Feb 18th because he would prefer to keep him fresh and would consider instead a hurdle race sometime before GN. Like many GN winners he has mixed chasing and hurdling over the last few seasons except he has run in slightly more hurdles than others (22), his last 4 races were all chases – I think Amberleigh House at 12 yrs old had run in 18 hurdles, No6 valverde 15 hurdles.
#67
January 27th, 2012 23:38
Mon Mome -
Venetia Williams is on the lookout for a race next month for Mon Mome following his disappointing performance at Haydock last weekend.
“I think he’ll have one more race, maybe over hurdles, and then all roads lead to Aintree.”
#68
January 28th, 2012 00:04
HI GANG, interesting to see how ALPHA BEAT goes over the weekend, if he wins his OR will go through the roof…..he’s on my shortlist, also I asked on a previous post is KERRY NATIONAL a recognised national trial ANY VIEWS………
#69
January 28th, 2012 00:54
Nice drink KJ? lol
Systems: If you read back last year I took 66/1 Junior for 2012 BEFORE Chelt.
I know this is ‘folksy’ rather than stats based but Killyglen ran virtually the same race and fell at same fence as Little Polvier the year before he won.
Think Shakalaka needs to run big tomorrow to be a contender.
Miinne: re Specify. He was going as well as anything the year before he won when coming down at 2nd Bechers and that stood for plenty 40 years back ie he had taken to the course (he more slipped than fell) and proved he was a real Aintree sort with a gallant 6th under big weight the year after he won.
Some of us had 2/6 (half a crown…look it up!!) ew on him when he won!! At 28/1 that bought an 11 year old loads of Subbuteo teams!!
#70
January 28th, 2012 02:37
Bovril III,
Half a crown was a fortune in my day.
So, both Specify and Grittar had experience over the GN fences.
Galileo,
Kerry National – yes and no. Monty’s Pass won the KN worth 51K that season but he also had experience of the GN fences with his 2nd in the Topham April before.
It’s a pity Alfa Beat fell in the Topham last April.
Racing Post – In rear division, mistake 10th (Bechers), mid-division when fell 4 out (op 16-1).
#71
January 28th, 2012 07:42
Miinne:
Trivia time:
Specify was 5th jumping the last. Can anyone think of a horse coming from further back to win? (ok distance is a different question!)
Amb. House was 4th over the last thats for sure but apart from him any advances on 5th??
Now the bit that has got me awake so early!!!
Doing some research on my namesake, I discovered that his rider William Pennington (later Sir William Pennington-Ramsden) was of the family who owned the stately pile of Muncaster Castle. It is open to the public and has a web site.
I sent an email blagging any further information (the blag being that I was writing a book about the GN) and had an email back telling me he was the present Lady Penningtons Grandfather and they have some material and cuttings and photographs inc. his racing colours and pictures of Bovril working on the estate!
To cut a long story short I am off to Muncaster Castle for lunch at the invite of Lady Iona and Peter Frost-Pennington to ‘interview’ her and see the above stuff. Also Osprey Communications who do all the PR for the castle have asked me to write something (250 words) for their site/promotional material.
Yes I have got a tape recorder and note books (put Nick Mannion in to Amazon and see that I am a published writer!) but am pulling off a blag here and no longer have a forelock to tug in deference to my hosts!!
If anyone asks, the book has a working title of ‘Its The Taking Part That Counts…’
Now all I have to do is email the family of the Duke of Alburquerque and get an invite to Spain to interview them!!
#72
January 28th, 2012 16:02
Calgary Bay ain’t no 2.5 miler despite what Niche Market’s alleged owner says.
#73
January 28th, 2012 16:26
wish I’d put my money where my mouth was last night, brilliant from Calgary Bay.
Last yr, I was torn between the ‘Bays’ for GN consideration, and backed Tidal but can’t touch him anymore, as he is so frustrating. Annoyed me again today,… thought he might win
Calgary is lovely big horse who has matured, travels smoothly great jumper,… a keeper, with GN claims?
#74
January 28th, 2012 17:02
People will probably knock Calgary Bay’s run and it doesnt guarantee staying the national distance (also fruity o’rooney very unlucky) but on the trends you would have to consider him.
shakalaka and galaxy rock ran ok as well.
Midnight chase ran as expected as i thought it would be a target and cant believe i didnt back it in the end.
seebass won by 7.5 lengths!!! should we all get on now?
#75
January 28th, 2012 17:39
Knockara Beau an impressive 3rd in the Argento – anyone know his Aintree intentions?
#76
January 28th, 2012 17:40
Shakalakboomboom ran much better than I expected. You just couldn’t back this horse when going left handed until this season. They’ve really ironed out this problem.
Left rueing Knockara’s poor handling again. He should be a 150′s horse.
#77
January 28th, 2012 17:41
ewok
Read my earlier post on him. Both jockey and trainer without a win this season. He needs to change hands and get a new pilot first.
#78
January 28th, 2012 19:28
Entries will be announced this coming week. What is everyone’s guess as to how many there will be. (I am going LOW….,around 95, compared with 102 last year and the bumper 150 in 2008).
#79
January 28th, 2012 20:51
Hi Baggy Re Seabass and ‘getting on now’ is he defo GN bound?
Hi Mandy re Chicago – big fan of him – either bags of potential or Chelts win was his moment in the sun… Bodes really well beating Beshabar who went on to win the Scots. 4 runs already this season which is a big plus for me
#80
January 28th, 2012 20:57
Anyone know of GN aspirations for Midnight Chase – if any? Appreciated
#81
January 28th, 2012 21:11
Bovril III… just to let you that your name sake IS in the print you have been given! He’s in his owners chocolate silks right next to the fallen leader…you can recognise his owners unique style and the horses bold white socks
#82
January 28th, 2012 21:18
Bovril III – 1927 Grand National
A very interesting link! Thanks for that.
I notice how much more difficult the Canal Turn and water jump were then. Presumably this was in the last years when the Canal Turn was still an open ditch – the riders take it straight on as opposed to cutting the corner as they do now, I imagine because cutting the corner would have been too difficult then. On that site there is footage of the 1938 National, after the ditch had been filled in, and the fence is jumped as it is at present. Anyone know if the water jump was modified at any point? It would make sense as that is a dangerous kind of fall – I have seen too many similar at Auteuil.
On more recent topics…I am happy with Shakalakaboomboom’s run today; would just hope to see a good run round in something like the Racing Post Chase next. Galaxy Rock ran well in an understated way just in behind. At Cheltenham I noticed Time for Rupert staying on in the closing stages – he is overrated and not good enough for these Graded conditions chases but does appeal as a National 2013 runner – though he needs to brush up the jumping.
Finally does anyone know of a free site where Irish racing can be seen? I would like to check out the Thyestes and today’s Leopardstown race.
#83
January 28th, 2012 22:05
all irish racereplays can be watched free on attheraces membership required but no fee
#84
January 28th, 2012 23:00
Shakalakaboomboom looking good and must be climbing many a short list (and mine).
Think i’ll have a good look again at Chicago Grey (who has very good stats) and report back this week. Convinced GN winner will be in bookies top 10 at most.
#85
January 28th, 2012 23:51
Calgary Bay will be too high in the weights now. Shakalakaboom we will see what OR he ends up with. Still not sure about the national, is he still too gangly looking over his fences?
Knockara beau cant jump properly so the national would be a silly option. Midnight Chase forget it. He was too high at the weights before the Argento let alone now.
#86
January 28th, 2012 23:59
Blimey, the GN odds on Betfair are going down fast , even Beshabar is down to 85/1 and he’s out. I wonder who is backing Organisedconfusion – 25/1. The last time I looked, Le Beau Bai was over 200/1 now 80, even Pete has been nibbled at, must be a wts gamble.
#87
January 29th, 2012 00:32
Can’t see Calgary Bay staying 3m but you never know
I am a fan of Chicago Grey but worry about his style of racing in the National. I love watching horses come from the clouds but these days that doesn’t seem to suit the national.
They can get away with being mid division and gradually creeping through the field (such as McKelvey and Mon Mome) but not languishing right at the rear.
I’m rapidly going off Any Currency. He had no chance today but his jumping hasn’t impressed me.
There are none of the longer shots I fancy really apart from maybe Prince de Beauchene or Mon Mome
#88
January 29th, 2012 01:00
Last year, on the day if you had used Admin’s Predictor tool with the 7 basic stats –
Chase win at 24f+, Wt 11.05 or less, 9+ chase runs, 20K+ chase win, OR136+, Age 8-12 and 50 days or less since LTO, you would have been left with 11 horses.
If you then had used the 3 chase win stat and the top 3 place in the season stat, you would have been left with 6, 5 of these 6 had won a 29K+ chase (can’t remember the odd one out) – Ballabriggs, Chief Dan George, Killyglen, Silver By Nature and West End Rocker.
I reckon two of those should pop up again this year.
#89
January 29th, 2012 01:45
What a day!!! The drinks ar eon me!!!!
Posts #9 #25 #30 and #55!! Seabass, Calgary Bay and Fruity O Rooney
I will accept 10% gratuity on all winning bets!!
Seabass:
Had £5 ew at 17/2 and it ran like a horse that could stay further!!
You read it here first folks!!
I put money where mouth was and £10 on C Bay. Hard to tell re ground if he will get further but all he could do was win!!He ran like a stayer but not sure re GN but as said a wins a win!!
Fruity would have been closer as saddle slipped after 12th! Still £5 ew at 25/1 is nice!!
Not sure what it says about Shakalaka. I guess we will have to see how he is weighted re C Bay by Phil!
All that and lunch at Muncaster Castle with her ladyship!! Thats a tale for another day!!
I shall ask my Irish sources for more info and will pass it on!!
Night all
#90
January 29th, 2012 02:15
Oh and Post #50 too!!!
YCroatia: Thank you for that. Actually as had lunch today with Mr (Geoffrey) William Penningtons grand-daughter, the horse was actually registered as owned by the riders mother and the colours he wore were hers and not what he was painted in the pic which next to the footage is ‘artistic licence’.
The story is complicated but Bovril was ‘young’ Mr Penningtons horse (he was 23 at the time) but as the estate was skint (till 1980′s when W Penningtons daughter moved back after his death in 1986) and turned it around, he had to do everything for tax reasons (a’hem…cough) in his mothers name.
I cant say if it comes from a sense of entitlement but the family seemed non-plussed by his amazing achievement (but pleased that someone had taken an interest) although they were not aware of the Pathe footage and her ladyship watched it several times and conceded that the race was ’10 times harder than now’ and her g/father was a far braver man than she had realised. Also, as a horsewoman herself she said that a one right eyed horse on any left handed course (let alone jumping Aintree circa 1927)would have been a nightmare at racing pace.
To the best of her knowledge William was a ‘been there done that’ type of man and never considered doing anything similar again re racing(he still hunted and raced and P2P locally till in to his 50′s) and moved on to other challenges…she didnt specify what but how do you follow that??? lol
I might just have had one of the best days of my life….. tear rolls gently down….. and I reckon there might be a book in this….;)
#91
January 29th, 2012 02:43
C Bay: Hen K. said they may swerve Chelt now and go straight to Aintree. Nicolaus Silver won Gt Yorkshire the same year as his GN!!
M Chase: Seeing no further than G.Cup (no GN hint)
T Bay: Paul N says Martell Cup at Aintree so no GN then.
Time for Rupert; Said we accept not G Cup class but may give him GN entry.
Shakalaka: N Henderson pleased will be happy with 2lbs above his now 144. Will give him a novice hrdle spin as prep for Aintree.
Thats all I can find re GN.
2 days till entries!!
#92
January 29th, 2012 10:18
Bovril III as you can see fom post 31 re. very interested in Seabass (even sounds like a National winner). Didn’t move fast enough and missed the 10/1 on offer Thursday, by Friday miffed I couldn’t get it. Bumped into a friend at Hills and told him, (got him interested) Hills wouldn’t give me amy price, went back to Betfred who were the 10/1 on Thursday 7/1 now very miffed went a long walk to Ladbrokes no price till later same day. Gave up!!
Saturday early doors 7/1 best I could find. Put a tenner on which my mate gave me (he is now well pleased) will enjoy on your behalf the pint he owes me. Myself so miffed with missing the 10/1 decided I couldn’t win enough at 7/1 with what I could afford got a bout of the greedy ‘s ended up putting £20 win treble with Big Bucks (went in) and Hurricane Fly today. Now very nervous as £200 now going on to the Fly at 4/7. Hope I don’t get fingers burnt on supposed hotpot!!
#93
January 29th, 2012 10:24
A big fan of Midnight Chase with his class Gold Cup and even if he runs in it again and not too hard a race, 4 weeks gap and say 11st 10lbs his jumping excellent, possible front runner wondering if got the class to do a L’escargot. Thoughts guys would too much weight anchor him ??
#94
January 29th, 2012 10:36
I agree Red Alligator . I thought he was awesome yesterday. Quick nimble jumping from the front and courageously grinding the others into submission . I bet him yesterday as well as I dont think he got the credit he deserved for giving 2 stone to According to Pete at Wetherby. He’s my favourite horse in training at the mo for his never say die attitude. 11-10s a lot of weight , but theres been enough classy horses whove finished in the frame to at least consider him ew . At least u know he will be giving 100% and jumps like a stag .. I think hes tailor made for the place. I hope he takes his chance
#95
January 29th, 2012 10:57
Missed races yesterday, family down. Just watching attheraces repeats. Thought Calgary v.good wonder what weight now ? Shakalakaboomboom pretty good, Fruity O’Rooney saddle slipped. Not impressed with Wymott either hated ground or didn’t get trip. Merigo awful out back all the way around. Galaxy Rock never really in it but not too bad 5th I think.
#96
January 29th, 2012 13:30
Galaxy Rock finished 4th Red Alligator
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,479376,00.html
Hope this link will be helpful
#97
January 29th, 2012 15:31
Good tip on Seabass Bovrill, couldn’t remember who tipped that one, so thanks a cheeky fiver at 7.5/1 was gratefully accepted.
The odds on the national at the moment are crazy, you would think we are only a few weeks away , the weights have been announced and they are all nailed on to enter. I think a brave layer could clean up with all the uncertain short priced horses, they can’t all turn up.
#98
January 29th, 2012 16:16
My pleasure Red A and National Punter.
The other whisper am getting from Ireland is about Treacle.
Had ok to good form till 2010 then pu 3 times. Now has come back (5142) the second in the big grade B Leopardstown Chase an 27/12 (where he beat some decent horses).
He had an entry in Thyestes but didnt show. They have him in the Hennessey(2 weeks today) but think thats a slight over-reach. If he gets GN entry he needs a good run there to go up in ratings.
Re Seabass: Word is Ted W is aiming him at one of the 20-21f Chelt races (not Ryanair). I would get on now!!
Re Glens Boy (who I landed a touch on at Newbury last Sat and have touted as longshot for 2013 …see last thread!!). Hen. K has given him a very interesting entry in the Chelt 4 miler. Now if that doesnt shout ‘we see him as GN horse if he continues to go up the ratings’ then I dont know what does!!
#99
January 29th, 2012 16:31
Just had a look at the entries for the Haydock GN trial.
Reads a bit like a whos who!!!
Graham (Niche): After being less than flattering about the race and SBN last year….I see the Niche has an entry…?:)
#100
January 29th, 2012 16:54
Alfa Beat couldn’t even get over hurdles today can’t have him !
Nice one H Fly over the moon !!
Thank you very much Bovril III always interested in whispers from stables then up to individual whether they bet or not. Got a few bob now for ante post just put 20 squid on the nose on Boston Bob for Neptune he is down for two races at Cheltenham but just ran over 2m 4 of 5 not sure which and the other Cheltenham race is over 3m snapped up the 12/1 as it won with something in hand today, impressed!
#101
January 29th, 2012 17:08
Snippets from todays Racing Post the Clarke family don’t want Midnight Chase in National even though they won with Lord Gyleene. Tidal Bay almost certain to run in Totesport Bowl. Time for Rupert considering Grand National as not good enough for Gold Cup.Walsh confirmed Seabass will get an entry in GN (incidentally got £5 on the nose on for GN before yesterday’s win at a measlly 40/1 with Hills, who had to phone for a price and are still today not quoting in their list.Believe S.James have quoted 40/1. Calgary Bay 25/1 for GN Hen says “The National has always been his aim. We were thinking of Cheltenham but I think he will now go straight there, he deserves a rest. Trainer looking to run On is Own in THE BIG ONE at Aintree this year will prob.get one more run into him between now and then. What do u all think of that after Thytes win I know groung was totally different to what he will experience at Aintree. Quoted at a miserly 20/1 today by Hills for the National.
#102
January 29th, 2012 17:22
ON HIS OWN has Strong Gale in him. At least we can mark him off quite confidently.
I have laid claim to the Strong Gale thing since 1996 and was interested to hear Brendan Powell snr the other week talking about wind operations on horses.
His vet basically said that Strong Gale’s progeny kept him in business given that generally speaking they had terrible breathing problems. Kind of speaks volumes about why they never stayed extreme distances and it appears to be something that has still not been bred out entirely even two generations on.
#103
January 29th, 2012 17:37
It is interesting 7T -Did you see the thoroughbred horse disection programme, on C4 over the summer?
It was amazing. They showed on the ‘specimen’ what happens when some horses are really pushed to the tongue and palette and we saw a live horse running with a camera pointing down its throat. I seem to remember them saying these operations don’t really work long term?!
I just watched the Thyestes, agree I’m not sure the winners jumping style is going to translate to aintree. If he’s Strong Gale aswell, the extra mile is probably a problem. Happy there was little there, but elsewhere this weekend, some likeable horses have handicapped there GN chances by asking for more weight.
…Haydock trial is full of interest…
#104
January 29th, 2012 17:50
They did concur kj with you said with regards the operation only being a short fix.
#105
January 29th, 2012 18:18
I suppose its not suprising that a few stitches basically, after popping the rather large tongue back in place doesn’t work for a creature that is expected to regularly go 40mph plus.
For those interested who didn’t see the programme and as I understood it
-
The tongue basically can come out of position from under the palette and start choking the horse, thats often why it is accompanied by some noises. Alot of horses suffer this, but the better ones that get further on obviously have it to a lesser degree and only happens at top speed at the end of a run I think.
The amount of air horses need to intake to run fast, is something astonishing and is achieved not only by massive lungs, but a massive wind pipe and the whole gut being suspended so it acts like a piston, forcing air in and out with the movement of the legs and body.
#106
January 29th, 2012 18:30
It makes me wonder about all of Paul Nicholls horses and ofcourse Niche…. will his tongue stay the distance
Graham over to you…..
#107
January 29th, 2012 18:31
To be fair there might not be many horses with Strong Gale in them entered this year.
Golden Kite probably wouldn’t get in now and that leaves Killyglen, On His Own and Fine Parchment that I can think of.
#108
January 29th, 2012 18:50
Thank you Bovril, I’m glad you recognise I was correct about SBN last year.
and there are a few more like him being talked about on here this year too !!!
but that’s the great thing about this blog its all about different opinions.
#109
January 29th, 2012 19:10
No prob with the opinions Graham so the question remains why enter Niche for a race you put down (and SBN won in a canter and would have done at Aintree if sim. going) as the going will only be the same at Hay in Feb. and you said the form on that means nothing come GN?
You were corrct re going not about the horse but as said last year come GN day we are all correct about 38/40 minimum (ie if our main fancy doesnt win we are only wrong about that and the winner…the other 38 we got right…)…
So that contradiction re the Haydock race?? You diss it and its winner yet enter your horse?
#110
January 29th, 2012 19:16
Red A:
If Seabass gets a GN entry I can use some of yesterdays winnings for an a/p ew but might angle for 50′s at my local bookies (manager is a mate).
The word from family is it might go to Chelt too but with a 4 week gap that wouldnt worry me. If gets a GN entry would be interesting if Ruby likes the ride…as said he has been back specially for the ride in 3 of his 6 wins (1 was P2P and Katie rode the other twice). I rate Katie W but she has fallen in 2 rides over GN fences…
Now if Nina C was given the option….!!
#111
January 29th, 2012 19:17
Handicap chases;
Only Grittar and Bindaree, since 1970, hadn’t won a h’cap chase. Only Grittar hadn’t ran in at least 4.
Bindaree did finish 3rd and 5th in Welsh Nat and Hennessy respectively and ran in four other h’caps so there was plenty of h’cap experience there.
Grittar (not 100% on the figures maybe, but not far off) ran in 14 chases, 11 were hunter chases and he won 7 of those. 3rd carrying
11-10 in the first h’cap he ran, in GN winning season, beaten seven lengths and giving the winner 20lbs, ten runners. Then finished 2nd, nine runners, in the once popular Ascot Whitbread GN Trial(Aldaniti won it in 81). Overall Grittar had 50% win s/r in chases; 79% win place s/r. Had also ran in at least 14 times over hurdles, winning twice with a 50% win place s/r.
#112
January 29th, 2012 19:29
Grand National Trial at Haydock, 28f/29f, winners, since 1946, who ran in GN in same season;
‘53 Witty, ur
‘56 Sundew, fell
‘57 Goosander, 5th
‘62 Solfen, 12th
‘64 Reproduction, fell
‘67 Bassnet, fell
‘69 Game Purston, pulled up
’70 French Excuse, fell
’71 The Otter, fell
’73 Highland Seal, pulled up
’75 Red Rum, 2nd
’77 Andy Pandy, fell
’92 Cool Ground, 10th
’94 Master Oats, fell
’95 Nuaffe, fell
’97 Suny Bay, 2nd
’00 The Last Fling, 7th
’03 Shotgun Willy, pulled up
’04 Jurancon II, fell
’05 Forest Gunner, 5th
’09 Rambling Minster, pulled up
’11 Silver By Nature 13th
GN winners who ran in GN Trial at Haydock in same season;
‘55 Quare Times, 4th
’73 Red Rum, 2nd
’76 Rag Trade, fell
’77 Red Rum, 6th and last
’92 Party Politics, 5th
’98 Earth Summit, 5th
’09 Mon Mome, 7th
#113
January 29th, 2012 19:30
The Grand Nationl Trial is not on The Niche’s list of must run in races. The entry has been made purely as a reserve to options we have in mind.
It sometimes always good to have a plan d !!!
#114
January 29th, 2012 19:42
Was at Chelts Saturday to cheer Midnight Chase on. Fantastic performance, and probably put paid to his National Chances this year as Phil is likely to push the OR up to prohibitive levels. Still great to see and £10 win bet made me v.happy too!
#115
January 29th, 2012 19:48
Re Handicap Chases
I believe four of the first five home in 2008 had never won a handicap chase either, it just so happened that the winner had!
#116
January 29th, 2012 20:02
“Seven Towers
January 29th, 2012 19:48
Re Handicap Chases
I believe four of the first five home in 2008 had never won a handicap chase either, it just so happened that the winner had!”
Yes – the winner had recently won off the same mark he ran from in the GN!
#117
January 29th, 2012 22:20
#100 RED ALLIGATOR what race was you watching,ALPHA BEAT was prominent through out the race never touch a twig and only for slipping would of been in the shake-up….very harsh
#118
January 30th, 2012 00:41
I agree Graham and am sure Paul N. advises well!
But re SBN….now we all know he won the race pulling a cart….and stuffed the next Hennessey winner…and left an exhausted West End Rocker having to PU….
That would be the same WER who was disappearing in to the distance from the Niche over 27f…..
So if you dont rate SBN….you see the problem?
But if it is just down to ‘a going thing’ we were/are in agreement!!
#119
January 30th, 2012 00:48
Oh and SBN not run since as hurt himself in GN.
Not saying would have been closer but didnt the Niche hurt himself 2010 in the race?
So are plans A, B and C all post weights runs??
And what would be ideal weight for your fella next to Ballab (as he seems the only 1 ahead of you last year who will line up!!)?
#120
January 30th, 2012 07:49
Seven Towers the well fancied Cappa Bleu has Strong Gale
#121
January 30th, 2012 08:51
Billy
Yes, I realised that soon after I posted as I highlighted this in another thread. I’d be interested to know if any of those mentioned have had wind ops recently or indeed at any stage.
#122
January 30th, 2012 12:51
From ‘Countdown to April’ thread…
“Rhino
January 29th, 2012 21:10
Good run from Knockara at the weekend. He didn’t jump great, but he doesn’t clatter them, he brushes through the tops of them, meaning Aintree’s fences could even suit him better?
They gotta aim him here, he appears to be gagging for the trip.”
Totally agree. Festival handicap then GN…
#123
January 30th, 2012 13:48
From RP website. Confirms the inevitable…
Tendon strain rules Beshabar out of National
BY DAVID CARR 11:47AM 30 JAN 2012
LEADING fancy Beshabar will miss the John Smith’s Grand National.
The Scottish Grand National winner was a general 20-1 chance for the Aintree marathon but will not run again this season due to a small strain to his nearside tendon.
The setback emerged after Middleham Park Racing’s chaser had finished fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup in December and has now scuppered hopes for Aintree.
“He is not going to be entered,” trainer Tim Vaughan said on Monday.
“It is a heartbreaking scenario. After his run in the Hennessy we were obviously exceptionally excited as it was the perfect prep run.
“But he had a little problem afterwards, I spoke to Middleham Park Racing and in the best interests of the horse we felt we would leave it now.
“We are going to give him a complete rest until the autumn, bring him back in and probably go straight for a tilt at the National.”
#124
January 30th, 2012 13:52
But they can’t have that idiot on top. You should at least need to have won a race in the same season to be allowed to ride in the race.
I would be interested to see which jocks have ended up on the deck the most in the race that are still riding. I expect Choc may be up there. I definitely take this into consideration.
We can all wax lyrical about the likes of Geraghty & Walsh but the fact is they get horses around and that counts for a hell of a lot.
#125
January 30th, 2012 14:14
Aintree Jockey Statistics
The 2012 statistics will appear here nearer the time of the big meeting at Aintree.
In the meantime, in 2011 they were as follows – Over the last five seasons, the following jockeys have performed the best at Aintree Racecourse. (dates are up to April 2011)
Jockey Wins-Rides % Return
AP McCoy 20-133 15% -3.28
Ruby Walsh 19-88 22% -18.88
Paddy Brennan 16-123 13% -14.31
Robert Thornton 13-94 14% -28.82
Tom O’Brien 11-72 15% -8.24
The following jockey’s are always favourites with punters and the four will usually manage to get themselves one of the more fancied Grand National runners
#126
January 30th, 2012 15:02
From Sporting Life…
George Charlton said of Knockara Beau: “We’ll be back in March, probably for a handicap.”
#127
January 30th, 2012 18:48
Jockeys to avoid in the race in terms of literally ending up on their ar*e are,
Robert Thornton – ended up on the deck 4 times since 2005
Dominic Elsworth – 4 times since 2005
Aidan Coleman – three out of the last three!
Paddy Brennan – 3 times since 2007
Davy Russell – 3 times since 2007
#128
January 30th, 2012 21:23
lol@knockara beau winning GN
#129
January 30th, 2012 21:51
Seven Towers before Ballabriggs win you probably could add McCoy,
although he had achieved a few placing (one because of remounting in Red Maurader year).
Just for fun somebody asked how many initial entries the would be, my guess is 108
#130
January 30th, 2012 22:35
I was not in the least bit surprised by Rare Bob’s lacklustre run at the weekend. Should see him drop a couple of more lbs.
He does tick a lot of boxes and I have to admit he features at the very zenith of my personal scoresheet, so I’ve decided to dip in.
He’s won his Grade 1, he’s won left handed, he’s won his h’cap chase, he’s won over three miles, he’s been placed over 3.5miles, he’s finished placed in a chase with more than 24 runners, he’s run his 10 chases +, he’s at least a third season chaser, he’s won off a mark greater than 140, he’s only parted with his jockey once, there’s no Strong Gale, a USA bred sire, he’s had his sighter, his sire has had a four mile winner, he will have won within two years at the time of the race and he’s run since Boxing Day. Plus he has shown much of his best form in the spring and has always shown winning form after the turn of the year.
My main concern is his intended pilot. Bryan Cooper would not be ideal.
#131
January 30th, 2012 22:39
Hope you all still have Lyreen Legend in your notebook for the future too. Smashing run behind Boston Bob at the weekend. I really do think he could be a superstar over fences.
#132
January 30th, 2012 23:11
Perhaps the pedigree people could help me with this -
Sir Gaylord begat Lord Gayle who begat Strong Gale.
Right, we don’t want Strong Gale in the Pedigree but what about his Dad – Lord Gayle. Is he also a bad thing to have in the Pedigree.
I have looked at the 5 generations of each of the last 25 GN winners –
None had Strong Gale.
None had Lord Gayle.
2 had Sir Gaylord – Don’t Push It and Hedgehunter, both on the Mum’s side.
#133
January 31st, 2012 01:03
Hi Team
Analysis and an update of Stage 1 of our GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE is now posted up over on the Grand National Votes thread.
STAGE 2 of the Voting will open as soon as The Grand National 2012 Weights are announced on TUESDAY 14th FEBRUARY and this Stage 2 of the Voting will CLOSE at MIDNIGHT on SUNDAY, 19th FEBRUARY.
#134
January 31st, 2012 08:46
miinne
Yes, I thought about Lord Gayle too and this would preclude anything with Lord Americo in it too as I beleive his only four mile winner was Garryvoe in a low graded affair at Stratford. However, Lord Americo is also the damsire of Chicago Grey who got four miles very well last season. He’s also the damsire of WER.
Lord Gayle was also responsible for Arctic Lord. Again I can’t be 100% certain but I think he only had one winner over four miles but that horse won twice over the distance and that was Sir Frosty.
And then Lord Gayle was also responsible for Callernish sire of Call It A Day and Addington Boy, both of which didn’t quite see out the 4.5 miles.
I am very wary of anything with Lord Gayle in it but particularly Strong Gale.
#135
January 31st, 2012 11:04
Hello GN faithfuls. First post for me this term so thought I’d start with GN Betfair prices as they stood at 30/11/2011. I follow this because for the last 2 runnings the winner and at least three of the places have been here.
21 Beshabar
21 Junior
21 BallaBriggs
21 Oscar Time
26 The Midnight Club
26 Planet Of Sound
34 Beautiful Sound
34 Chicago Grey
34 West End Rocker
34 Alfa Beat
34 Dont Push It
Does anybody know the likely plans for Planet of Sound (currently 51/1)? Off a low OR this one looks interesting. Thanks.
#136
January 31st, 2012 11:50
So you only have 7 to choose from Thaimark having already lost 4 of the 11 listed. Easy for you. Not a bad 7 though I think we would all agree!
#137
January 31st, 2012 11:55
Even if in list today (getting excited) do we think Always Right trainer will target GN or go to Ayr again, any thoughts,hints,stable whispers,trainers comments?
#138
January 31st, 2012 12:59
I have a very good reason for suspecting Junior will NOT stay and is therefore IMO a very unworthy favourite, which I am very happy about.
Junior’s dam FOR MORE is related very closely to two very obvious non stayers, both of which actually ran in the National (one of them for Pipe) and they were half brothers Celtic Son & Sonevafushi.
Steer clear.
Genes can be important – A Piece Of Cake won over four miles and his brother Royal Emperor was a staying on third in the Scottish National. Royal Athlete won at Aintree and his brother Tipsy Mouse also won over four miles and both were from the family of West Tip. Rhyme N Reason & Hallo Dandy were from the same family too (Magnanimity is from the family of Amberleigh House so watch out for him).
Ignore this warning at your peril!!!
#139
January 31st, 2012 13:02
Total entry for The National this year is 81 horses !!
That must be the lowest entry for some time.
#140
January 31st, 2012 13:03
correction make that 82 !!
#141
January 31st, 2012 13:27
I did predict this in the first post of the Countdown to April thread. V.poor.
#142
January 31st, 2012 13:38
Thread 117 Galileo I think I owe you and Alpha Beat an apology I think I may have SLIPPED UP!!
#143
January 31st, 2012 13:38
Crikey, any idaes of the list graham?
This race is going to go soon, unless it starts to get handled correctly!
#144
January 31st, 2012 13:40
It will be out tomorrow or Thursday.
#145
January 31st, 2012 13:40
We’ll see when the entries are published but maybe there are fewer rated 135 or less that wouldn’t make the cut (why throw money away?) and maybe some horses that can’t enter now because they’re too young or haven’t got a place over 3 miles.
Maybe some owners and trainers were sick of the sight of last year’s race and thought sod this I don’t want my horse going through that on fast ground – especially with the lower fences.
#146
January 31st, 2012 14:02
How much does it cost to enter at this stage, and, do you get a refund if your horse doesn’t get into the race?
#147
January 31st, 2012 14:03
800 pounds for this stage, and you only get your money back if your horse is declared and does’nt get into the race.
#148
January 31st, 2012 14:07
Hello again Thaimark
started off with an interesting list there that reads,
injured
no sign of
no sign
injured
doesn’t like it??
could be the one!
injured?
not for me
could be
not for me
…… retired
reads like that Henry V wives rhyme
Planet of Sound does look rather good and rather jumps out on that list for me. A few of us have had their eye on him since his good run this season.
#149
January 31st, 2012 14:20
Graham thanks for the accurate info/ updates….
82 is ‘recessional’ God I wish Don’t Push It had been given more time, just given an entry
Graham can I ask you, whats your and Pauls take on wind ops long term?
I understand they don’t last, but if so what kind of time frame are we talking?
#150
January 31st, 2012 14:27
KJ,
I can’t really speak on Paul’s behave but i do know the gallop at ditcheat finds out most horses breathing.
if you have a tie back these can come undone after a while and return the horse to where he was previously. you can also quarterise the pallet which does seem to last longer.
but like most ops they are’nt all 100% successful.
#151
January 31st, 2012 14:43
Accoring to this morning’s Racing Post notable absentees will be Midnight Chase and Big Fella Thanks. Don’t know if Graham you have seen the list and confirm ? Or if you have seen the list and bloggers favourites not entered ?
#152
January 31st, 2012 14:48
Thanks Graham, so neither is permanent and I can see why after watching that insightful disection tv programme.
You say the latter seems to last longer,that would make sense, but are we talking say just a year or three? I know Paul has had quite a few done in the recent past, so was just thinking a pattern must be forming.
Oh, and did Niche have the latter op?
#153
January 31st, 2012 14:52
i have’nt seen the list, i just get a text from Weatherbys confirming an entry and the number of horses in the race.
#154
January 31st, 2012 14:55
Wouldn’t suprise me if those two weren’t entered, for different reasons.
Haven’t seen BFT since last yr have we? when he finished distressed and legless again, poor thing, I mean I think he’ll drop dead on the run in if they ask him to do it a forth time? I hope he is ok now!
#155
January 31st, 2012 15:03
Wouldn’t a National with less than 40 runners and 30 fences be brilliant?
#156
January 31st, 2012 15:06
just before betfair suspended i had the top 11 as
junior
west end rocker
ballabrigs
shakalakaboomboom
the midnight club
on his own
cappa bleu
synchronised
calgary bay
niche market
chicago bay
killyglen
planet of sound
#157
January 31st, 2012 15:11
I suspect Ireland will have the highest percentage of entries they have ever had this time around. You would think Hughes, Mullins & Elliott have a fair few between them.
#158
January 31st, 2012 15:20
Yes, and the strange thing is that the Irish only account for four of the first eleven in the betting. I have no idea why. They have a much stronger hand than that.
#159
January 31st, 2012 16:57
Seven Towers many thanks.
Call It A Day was a cracker, trained by – The Duke – maybe his young assistant will have better luck this year.
CALL IT A DAY DP = 3-3-2-2-2 (12) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.25
ADDINGTON BOY DP = 5-3-2-0-2 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Both ran in the ’99 GN and finished 3rd and 4th to Bobbyjo on good. Both had Lord Gayle on the Dad’s side.
#160
January 31st, 2012 18:03
Aintree news alert – entries released before 12 noon tomorrow
#161
January 31st, 2012 18:25
Are we expecting any suprise entries or even non entries???
#162
January 31st, 2012 18:49
Doesnt look good for Midnight Chase
Oh well .another one about to bite the dust methinks…
#163
January 31st, 2012 19:13
“Seven Towers
January 31st, 2012 12:59
I have a very good reason for suspecting Junior will NOT stay and is therefore IMO a very unworthy favourite, which I am very happy about.
Junior’s dam FOR MORE is related very closely to two very obvious non stayers, both of which actually ran in the National (one of them for Pipe) and they were half brothers Celtic Son & Sonevafushi.
Steer clear.”
You may well be right
However, you are comparing Junior with two horses that were on the downslide anyway and horribly out of form.
Celtic Son flopped at Cheltenham the year before his GN ‘attempt’ (beaten 90 lengths), came back after 11 months off for the RP Chase and was pulled up, then pulled up in GN
Sonevafushi also lost his form in 2006 and was relegated to running in hunter chases before the GN – sent off at 150/1 for the race
In most years 90%+ of the field has come home 25 or more lengths behind the winner, pulled up, fallen, been brought down etc. So any negative comments about a horse’s ability to stay are highly unlikely to be proven incorrect.
What’s of more interest to me is opinions research into the pedigree of in-form horses that didn’t stay.
#164
January 31st, 2012 19:15
Will Black Apalachi be there or is he retired now? Not that I rate his chances.
#165
January 31st, 2012 19:29
Pablo
Celtic Son was always a suspect stayer even in his prime, failing to find anything on more than once occasion at the business end of the race. In fact Junior’s run behind Midnight Chase was very reminiscent of what Celtic Son did at Cheltenham & Wincanton.
Sonevafushi had similar traits in his prime not always finding a great deal after travelling sweetly. I remember some of these to my cost especially one at Haydock.
I don’t think I am sticking my neck too far out by saying he won’t stay either. To do what he did at Cheltenham against better horses will be impossible.
#166
January 31st, 2012 19:38
Hi all,
reading with interest, as usual!
Not sure if Arbor Supreme is entered in GN, but he’s out tomorrow 3.30 Leicester.
#167
January 31st, 2012 19:56
ST
Yes that would be unlikely but he’s at an age and lightly raced enough over fences where he could be improving still.
Or he may have already reached the limit of his ability at Ascot and Cheltenham.
Not many non-stayers would win a 2m 4f handicap on the flat though would they?
#168
January 31st, 2012 20:03
I think Junior’s dosage and relatives says he has a good chance of staying but whether he will be first over the line is another matter.
JUNIOR DP = 5-1-18-7-1 (32) DI = 0.88 CD = 0.06
Sadlers Wells, Shirley Heights, Hail To Reason, Herbager, Mill Reef, Turn-To, Vandale, Irish River, High Top, Sir Gaylord, Riverman, Derring-Do and a cast of others.
#169
January 31st, 2012 20:28
I don’t think the low entry numbers are necessarily a worry i would think the field will still be in the mid 30′s .The race was undersubscribed for 6 years in the 90′s and apart from ’96 i don’t remember the race suffering.Lets just hope the judging committee don’t get too trigger happy though .
#170
January 31st, 2012 21:00
>>I can’t really speak on Paul’s behave but i do know the gallop at ditcheat finds out most horses breathing.
If it resembles the A37 at Wraxall just a mile or so along the ridge I am not surprised!
>>Wouldn’t a National with less than 40 runners and 30 fences be brilliant?
Can’t comment on reducing the number of fences, but some of the late 70s/early 80s Nationals had fields in the low 30s and made for good enjoyable races – these were the ones that got me hooked.
#171
January 31st, 2012 21:15
well, with just 82 entries this year, should still easily be a maximum field as we barely scratched 70th on the original list last year. Could be good news for some lower rated stayers….worth a good look down the very bottom of the ratings tomorrow …. exciting times!
#172
January 31st, 2012 21:42
The last 30 or so from 75/80 never get in anyway, no big deal. But to want less than 40 runners in the best race in the World would have Ginger turning in his grave. Blimey, no more changes for Ginger’s sake.
#173
January 31st, 2012 21:53
I was being facetious.
#174
January 31st, 2012 21:53
Could be all that silly placement by Keighley wasnt required.
#175
January 31st, 2012 21:58
I see quite a few people beginning to get sweet in Planet of Sound and certainly from a trends point of view it looks a decent wager. But what does everyone think of the Hennessy form? aside from The Giant Bolster nobody has franked the form at all. One run in what might to turn out a mediocre renewal???
#176
January 31st, 2012 22:01
I can’t believe everyone has ruined Killyglen for me. I have been a big opponent of strong gale offspring but I have only ever gone back 2 generations! to find out my fancy has my biggest negative in his genes has left me somewhat downhearted! oh well, one trend is always broken. I should just pretend I don’t know!
#177
January 31st, 2012 23:00
I really am starting to get very excited about Prince de Bauchene, the entries tomorrow could kill that however. ButI see its entered for the National trial at Haydock once the weights are out and this would suggest to me that Willie Mullins might be about to unleash it once its leanient handicap mark is protected. To add fuel to this I saw that he entered in the Welsh National but took it out, so fingers crossed its on the entry list tomorrow. And weve all seen how well the Wylie horses have been doing for Mullins!!
Does anyone know anything about his breeding that should worry me? 25f is the longest he’s run over?
#178
January 31st, 2012 23:09
Is it just me or is the staggering 19lb rise in Junior’s OR since his Cheltenahm win not his main barrier to GN success? OR 153 surely totally unchartered waters for him? Thoughts?
#179
January 31st, 2012 23:33
Does anyone know if there are any positives or negatives that are lurking in Prince De Beauchenes pedigree. If hes entered tomorrow he is fast becoming my number 1. Cheers
#180
February 1st, 2012 00:00
Tweet from Paul Nicholls: “Just made 2 entries for the Grand National. Neptune Collonges & Niche Market.”
#181
February 1st, 2012 01:54
Well I must say hats off to many if the trainers have left us with a lot less red herrings this year in horses that would never really line up on the day.
Midnight Chase a BIG fav of mine and if not entered makes my way forward much clearer
#182
February 1st, 2012 04:29
Calgary Bay now on OR159 from 151
Shakalakaboomboom OR149 from 144
#183
February 1st, 2012 04:58
Showlad – ref Junior, we won’t know until 18th Feb whether the horse has improved enough for OR153 but at present it is a negative. Of course his other trend breakers are the no show this season and his relative lack of chasing experience. For me there are prefered runners.
SevenT and Minne – are you agreeing in your conversation (132 & 134) that having Lord Americano is acceptable in a Grand National prospect or one to be avoided?
Can I also ask SevenT if for certain you give the red pen treatment to anything with Accordion in its pedigree?
Thanks
#184
February 1st, 2012 09:05
That’s staggering from Paul Nicholls. I at least expected a Graham Roach runner or even the likes of Promising Anshan or Tidal Bay.
#185
February 1st, 2012 09:23
“baggy352
January 31st, 2012 21:58
I see quite a few people beginning to get sweet in Planet of Sound and certainly from a trends point of view it looks a decent wager. But what does everyone think of the Hennessy form? aside from The Giant Bolster nobody has franked the form at all. One run in what might to turn out a mediocre renewal???”
very good point
#186
February 1st, 2012 09:33
Thaimark
You could argue that Character Building should have finished closer than he did in 2010 and he was clearly given too much to do. That said I don’t think he would ever have won the race but he did finish runner up in the NH Chase we musn’t forget. This was in no small measure down to his damsire – Roselier, emphasising how important the dam is.
Now, I suspect you are asking about Accordion because of Weird Al. I have done a bit of digging and if you go back a bit you will find that he is in fact from the family of none other than Black Apalachi. That can only be a positive but of course the latter was much more stoutly bred.
However, the only instance I can find of Accordion being in a four mile winner is The Risky Viking where Accordion was the damsire. This comes with an enormous caveat. The Devon Marathon he won was an abysmal race and all his subsequent outings over 3.5 – 4 miles (there were six) met with failure.
#187
February 1st, 2012 09:36
POS still no HCP win, all best form at Nby. Not trained with GN in mind, only considered a GN runner because of decent run in Hen. Gonna be high in wgts possibly??
#188
February 1st, 2012 10:21
POS won £42k handicap chase off 152, second off 158 in Hennessy, now 159 – unlikely but could be 11’5 (if they decide to run Synchronised)
#189
February 1st, 2012 10:47
Thanks for the reply SevenT. I was also interested in Accordion because of According To Pete, who I’m looking for an additional excuse to Red Pen.
Dosage numbers are one thing but breeding and analysing performances thereon are quite something different and I’m wanting to incorporate the latter more into my points system. So a requirement something like “Pedigree must be free of Strong Gale, Accordion and an Irish Sire”??? I’ve read about your mistrust of Pedigreequery but what site do you use to know that Clearly Bust, Broken Hearted & Bustino are NOT Irish?
Thanks again.
#190
February 1st, 2012 10:49
Sorry he has won a HCP! I’m goin back to sleep, doh.
#191
February 1st, 2012 11:22
Character Buildings year was the one where he was scratched a couple of days before the race. I was gutted when that happened. Perhaps he was never quite the same horse after injury.
#192
February 1st, 2012 11:31
Just thought i’d help out with the pedigree of Accordion. They seem to be better suited on good ground around 3m 3f at cheltenham
Would be amazed if According to Pete had the stamina for the GN tbh
#193
February 1st, 2012 12:02
…and Acc to Pete is off 149 – too high imo (Mon Mome won this off 148!)
#194
February 1st, 2012 12:08
plus Mon Mome would have hacked up last week
#195
February 1st, 2012 12:34
Are the GN entries definitely out today??? Nothing on RP and not a mention on ATR Racing News.
#196
February 1st, 2012 12:42
Should be released by 12 noon
#197
February 1st, 2012 12:47
Seven Towers
sorry to be a nuisance and ask this question,having fully understood your reasoning for putting a line through anything with Strong Gale in its pedigree,i find last thursdays Thystes chase winner On His Own fascinating,while he has Strong Gale in his pedigree,he also has Roselier as his Dam Sire,what a conflict for Grand National purposes,any opinions Seven Towers much appreciated.
#198
February 1st, 2012 12:48
West End Rocker is still top of my list with Oscar Time out of the way.
#199
February 1st, 2012 12:48
70 days, 21 hours and 12 mins to go…
#200
February 1st, 2012 12:50
Re On His Own hes gone up a massive 18 lbs so has to mix it with the big boys now on OR143. Plus inexperienced over fences. How is he going to win the national?
#201
February 1st, 2012 13:01
entries coming soon…
#202
February 1st, 2012 13:03
Mike N
well at least that gets him into the race,not that i have an opinion on whether he can win the race,beyond the fact he’s trained by Willie Mullins and seems to be taking the Hedgehunter route,only reason for question was the conflict in pedigree,Strong Gale non stayer and Roselier one of best Grand National Sires,any opinions welcome.
#203
February 1st, 2012 13:11
http://www.aintree.co.uk/news/entries_announced_for_national_full_of_quality/
#204
February 1st, 2012 13:13
No Galaxy Rock……
#205
February 1st, 2012 13:13
HERE THEY ARE!!!
http://www.aintree.co.uk/news/entries_announced_for_national_full_of_quality/
#206
February 1st, 2012 13:13
Here’s your 2012 GRAND NATIONAL ENTRIES
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
2/31P/-FP ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 11 Sue Johnson George Bewley
22-3011 ACCORDING TO PETE 11 Peter Nelson Malcolm Jefferson
F-6041U ALFA BEAT (IRE) 8 Irvin Naylor John Hanlon IRE
2113-1P ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 10 John Wade John Wade
041-044 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 11 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen
6-12026 ANOTHER PALM (IRE) 7 M J M Racing Syndicate Noel Meade IRE
32-3P40 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 9 Cash Is King Martin Keighley
2-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
0P2F-60 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
P/5000-P BACKSTAGE (FR) 10 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
11/1121- BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain
12-20P3 BALLYVESEY (IRE) 7 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen
42F-63F BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 9 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE
51U/022/- BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
11121/2- BURTON PORT (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson
2F-0511 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 9 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
3F2P/-13 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 10 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
10-U303 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 9 John Earls Gordon Elliott IRE
3/5P-230 COOLDINE (IRE) 10 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE
5U-P20P CRESCENT ISLAND (IRE) 9 Sarah Bays Jill Scott Sarah MacEchern Nigel Twiston-Davies
6/3U34-1 DEEP PURPLE 11 Paul Green Evan Williams
4-U2634 FAIR ALONG (GER) 10 Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs
3/P22-12 GILES CROSS (IRE) 10 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall
1P-1323 HECTOR’S CHOICE (FR) 8 James and Jean Potter Richard Lee
PP-5U65 HELLO BUD (IRE) 14 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies
PP//1-11 HOLD ON JULIO (IRE) 9 Mr & Mrs F Bell, N Farrell, A Marsh Alan King
431U0-P IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12 Dessie Hughes Dessie Hughes IRE
131/321- JUNIOR 9 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe
F-03034 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10 David McCammon Stuart Crawford IRE
50-PP0F KING FONTAINE (IRE) 9 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson
P-0P011 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 9 Glass Half Full Richard Lee
6/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
235/3/1-P MASSINI’S MAGUIRE (IRE) 11 Alan Peterson David Pipe
115-F31 MIDNIGHT CHASE 10 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland
21/10P-1 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10 Kim Bailey Racing Partnership Kim Bailey
0P3-5U2 MINELLA THEATRE (IRE) 9 Middleham Park Racing XXIV & Dan Gilbert Lawney Hill
63F/-52P MON MOME (FR) 12 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
106-P42 NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 11 John Hales Paul Nicholls
30-3150 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9 Koo’s Racing Club Brian Ellison
F505-02 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 11 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls
500423- NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 11 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin IRE
14P1-B1 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 8 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
12-133F ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 7 Grace Dunlop Arthur Moore IRE
0-42026 OUR ISLAND (IRE) 7 David Fox Tim Vaughan
2130-F2 PEARLYSTEPS 9 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly
F01/35-2 PLANET OF SOUND 10 Charles Lloyd-Baker Philip Hobbs
FP-2661 POSTMASTER 10 The Bill & Ben Partnership Tim Vaughan
U5351-5 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
0F2224 PSYCHO (IRE) 11 Exors of The Late C McClure Tony Martin IRE
R-120U3 QHILIMAR (FR) 8 Whites of Coventry & Stephen Dunn Charlie Longsdon
112-021 QUANTITATIVEEASING (IRE) 7 J P McManus Nicky Henderson
1FF-F11 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
2F-4010 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 8 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
PU-3450 RARE BOB (IRE) 10 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE
1U3043 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 10 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE
//U1/2B/1- ROULEZ COOL 9 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen
0/660-P4 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10 Billy Moffett, R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin IRE
11PPP0 SCHINDLER’S GOLD (IRE) 10 Dr Richard & Laura Newland Dr Richard Newland
363144 SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11 Double R Stables Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
F11/-111 SEABASS (IRE) 9 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE
000-112 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 8 Liam Breslin Nicky Henderson
30/-003P SHAKERVILZ (FR) 9 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE
05-3410 SMOKING ACES (IRE) 8 J P McManus Tom Taaffe IRE
PP24U6 SOME TARGET (IRE) 8 Captain Conflict Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
144/P3/4- STATE OF PLAY 12 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
P0-5121 STEWARTS HOUSE (IRE) 10 Double Trouble Partnership Tim Vaughan
03F-30P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 9 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
2313P2 SWING BILL (FR) 11 David Johnson David Pipe
13-P031 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
04-5060 TARTAK (FR) 9 David Fox Tim Vaughan
3100-01 TATENEN (FR) 8 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe
4-P1300 THARAWAAT (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
3/216-B4 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 11 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
312U5/5- THE PACKAGE 9 David Johnson David Pipe
P/P-5142 TREACLE (IRE) 11 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE
140310 UNCLE JUNIOR (IRE) 11 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE
0044B-2 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 12 J P Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE
00-143P VIKING BLOND (FR) 7 Caroline Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/10P-13 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9 Brannon, Dennis, Dick, Holden Donald McCain
11PB-P1 WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 10 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King
1P-6P60 WYMOTT (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain
#207
February 1st, 2012 13:15
Seabass entered
#208
February 1st, 2012 13:16
Posted up on here so we have it on this thread
GREAT to see Black Apalachi entered though what fettle is he in?
#209
February 1st, 2012 13:17
Glad to see:
Junior
POS
Quiscover Fontaine
entered
Winner is one of those three…
#210
February 1st, 2012 13:18
Re Roselier v Strong Gale and does the former “earth” the other, the answer is I don’t know. I personally won’t be backing him, that’s all I can say!
I always felt that we lost a fabulous opportunity in seing whether Roselier and Strong Gale were a good four mile combination when Rosslea was killed prior to the NH Chase for which he was favourite.
All I would say is that brothers Fork Lightning & The Listener never looked like four milers (and their half brother Offshore Account went out like a light in the National). Arnold Layne did stay 3m 5f in a lowlier grade and Hersov did win two four mile PTP’s but didn’t quite get home over the distance under rules.
#211
February 1st, 2012 13:19
WHAT a quality field this year
#212
February 1st, 2012 13:21
I stumbled across this site for the 1st time this time last year and was influenced by the ‘pedigree experts’ on this site who said avoid Presenting horses from a win perspective. So although on form Ballabriggs was nailed on to run a big race I was telling everyone that he wouldnt win ‘cos he was by Presenting. I have learnt my lesson lol. My advice would be go with the trusted stats such as age,weight,preps,form,OR, etc and ignore the pedigree stuff. Last year proved to me that pedigree is a dodgy road to go down.
#213
February 1st, 2012 13:21
Scotsirish & Rare Bob. Clap,clap,clap!
#214
February 1st, 2012 13:22
Wasn’t expecting Hold On Julio or Massini’s Maguire.
#215
February 1st, 2012 13:23
Blazing Tempo on the list. And Quel Esprit. Some very classy horses in this list. Have to say, it’s going to be very difficult to find the winner this year imo. Surprised to see Black Apalachi; thought he was retired.
#216
February 1st, 2012 13:23
maureen
I think we are nailed on to get the first four!
#217
February 1st, 2012 13:26
Western Charmer not entered?
#218
February 1st, 2012 13:27
Its like we put the list together ourselves!
#219
February 1st, 2012 13:32
Hello BUD! 14!
#220
February 1st, 2012 13:32
Actually taking a step back for a minute and really reading some of those names, I think for a smallish entry there is actually quite a bit of (for want of a better word) “dross” in there that can be easily discounted. I think we can narrow these down to 10-15 before the weights.
#221
February 1st, 2012 13:34
A lot of these horses have been entered ‘as a precaution’ and wont run. Such as Quantitativeasing. Cant see Quel Esprit running, the pace they go in the national he will come to grief.
#222
February 1st, 2012 13:34
Thanks for the reply Seven Towers,cant say i fully understand pedigree’s as in depth as you do,h’ever i do find them fascinating.
I thought Tom Segal made an interesting point the other day as he was trying to explain why irish trained horses {probably irish bred too}seem to win the speedier races like champion hurdles & chase and english trained win staying races,Nick Mordin once wrote an article about conditioning horses to stay distances,and as the Grand National is a long distance race usually run at a strong pace, perhaps this is why there is a distinction in the breeding of winners of the Grand National not being of Irish breeding, equally you could think this as aload of garbage either way opinions appreciated.
#223
February 1st, 2012 13:34
KJ if you did the list it would have 1 horse. Niche Market. lol
#224
February 1st, 2012 13:39
Must admit I’m glad the Presenting theory has been laid to rest – Busted influence has always been useful (in 6 or 7 GN winners since 1990) – so few of those Presentings good enough to win the GN ratings-wise had tried to go 4 miles and there are only one or two 4 mile races for quality horses – stuff the garbage at Kelso and Plumpton (generally speaking the 4 Novices miler at Festival attracts poorer horses than RSA too)
Also last year we had the ‘Montjeus don’t get up the Cheltenham hill’ and witnessed two winners including that electrifying performance from Hurricane Fly
I’m wary of Strong Gale horses but I’d still back one if all the other attributes were very good – noone has come up with a reasonable argument as to why Strong Gale’s influence should offset other positive influences for stamina
#225
February 1st, 2012 13:41
Am I right in thinking that Smoking Aces is a horse with ‘National’ breeding. Seem to remember having him on my ‘horses for the future’ list once.
#226
February 1st, 2012 13:42
…imo
#227
February 1st, 2012 13:47
Damn; stays forever but his OR is pretty low.
#228
February 1st, 2012 13:51
Must admit it was the Presenting theory that put me off Ballabriggs [combined with how tired he seemed to be after his win at Cheltenham]. A horse trained by the McCain dynasty who even looked a bit like Rummy. However, this year I am NOT going to look at iffy jumpers [the Darkness Syndrome] and, at least the non stayers have been ruled out by the new 3 mile rule.
#229
February 1st, 2012 13:58
Pablo
No one has come with an adequate explanation as to why Junior will stay.
#230
February 1st, 2012 14:01
He was outstayed by a veering Any Currency over almost three and a half and the latter is three times the price. I know which one of the two I fancy to see out 4.5 miles.
#231
February 1st, 2012 14:02
Re Junior, no one knows for sure his ability to see out the trip. He does like to front run though and with a few known front runners taking him on his stamina will surely be tested.
#232
February 1st, 2012 14:10
It just really annoys me that someone who needs an “argument” or evidence then goes and bases their selections without adhering to their own principles.
That’s me off.
#233
February 1st, 2012 14:11
Given that AP opted for Quantativeeasing in the Irish Grand national over Sunnhyhillboy and then Synchronised over him in the Betfair hurdle and then, becuase of a flu induced light weight, went back on him only to PU at Chelts – do we feel it increasingly likely that we will see him on Synchro in the GN?
Can’t see AP on Arbor..
Thoughts… (and this is a ‘will AP be on Synchro in the GN 2012 Q and not a, lol, can Synchro win the GN Q).
#234
February 1st, 2012 14:19
Mike Mike Mike…. Don’t Push It, the State of Play is not On His Own its Organisedconfusion!
Although I think Niche has a good e/w chance as I did last year and the year before that,…he’s not been in my top6… so what are you on about? Quel Esprit!?
#235
February 1st, 2012 14:19
Don’t know if anyone else has published the official list on here, but in the risk of duplicating it here goes.
http://www.aintree.co.uk/news/entries_announced_for_national_full_of_quality/
#236
February 1st, 2012 14:22
Now the real fun can begin, sorting out that winner.
#237
February 1st, 2012 14:25
KJ i’ve not voted my top 6 yet. When i do make sure you’re watching and take notes. lol
#238
February 1st, 2012 14:26
No one knows which horses will stay – less than half normally finish
But to win a handicap over 2m 4f on the flat suggests that Junior’s a stayer and he’s won over as far as BallaBriggs (Presenting!?! had ever done before his win)
He went toe to toe with Midnight Chase (Any Currency badly outpaced before running on) on ground that was softer than he’d like – since when it appears that Junior has improved while Any Currency has gone backwards
Junior may have reached his peak but like I said before the better ground will suit and his record under the Pipes is very encouraging – 2/2 on main targets and 1,2,3,2,1,9 overall
I reckon Junior will track the leaders as he did in the Kim Muir – not sure about Scudamore as a jockey though
#239
February 1st, 2012 14:31
Hi Mike vote opens for Stage 2 as soon as weights announced
#240
February 1st, 2012 14:39
County Clare handler Noel Glynn is hoping that Becauseicouldntsee, (33/1 with Betfred) who fell at the second fence in last year’s John Smith’s Grand National, can fare considerably better in the 2012 race over four and a half miles and 30 fences.
The nine-year-old is set to run in the National Trial at Punchestown on Sunday as a stepping stone to Aintree.
Glynn reported: “The John Smith’s Grand National is the plan again for Becauseicouldntsee and I hope that we get a bit further than last year! Hopefully, he will run in the National Trial at Punchestown on Sunday and we will take it from there.
“For such a good jumper, he had two nasty falls last year including at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he would have been there or thereabouts. He hurt his hip during that race but it’s all sorted now and he is moving good.
“I am just a little afraid that those falls might have affected him mentally, so I am just hoping that he can post a clear round on Sunday to get his confidence back.
“He had no sort of preparation for Aintree last season after suffering a cut leg and we would love to get him back there.”
#241
February 1st, 2012 14:43
Runners in OR order – I hope this looks like it should do. The Niche looks OK.
1 168 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9
2 164 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9
3 163 MIDNIGHT CHASE 10
4 160 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11
5 160 BURTON PORT (IRE) 8
6 159 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13
7 159 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 9
8 159 NEPTUNE COLLONGES(FR)11
9 159 PLANET OF SOUND 10
10 158 ALFA BEAT (IRE) 8
11 156 UNCLE JUNIOR (IRE) 11
12 154 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8
13 154 DEEP PURPLE 11
14 154 SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11
15 153 JUNIOR 9
16 153 QUANTITATIVEEASING(IRE7
17 153 TARTAK (FR) 9
18 152 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10
19 152 ROBERTO GOLDBACK(IRE)10
20 150 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9
21 150 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 9
22 150 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8
23 150 TATENEN (FR) 8
24 149 ACCORDING TO PETE 11
25 149 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE8
26 149 WEST END ROCKER (IRE)10
27 148 HECTOR’S CHOICE (FR) 8
28 148 MASSINI’S MAGUIR(IRE)11
29 148 PSYCHO (IRE) 11
30 148 ROULEZ COOL 9
31 148 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB(IRE11
32 147 ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 10
33 147 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10
34 147 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 10
35 147 COOLDINE (IRE) 10
36 147 CRESCENT ISLAND (IRE) 9
37 147 RARE BOB (IRE) 10
38 145 MON MOME (FR) 12
39 145 ORGANISEDCONFUSION(IRE7
40 144 HOLD ON JULIO (IRE) 9
41 144 SEABASS (IRE) 9
42 144 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 12
43 143 NORTHERN ALLIANCE(IRE11
44 143 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 8
45 143 PEARLYSTEPS 9
46 143 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE(FR9
47 143 QUISCOVER FONTAINE(FR)8
48 142 FAIR ALONG (GER) 10
49 142 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 11
50 142 STEWARTS HOUSE (IRE) 10
51 142 SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 9
52 141 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10
53 140 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 11
54 140 BACKSTAGE (FR) 10
55 140 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE(IRE9
56 140 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 9
57 140 STATE OF PLAY 12
58 140 SWING BILL (FR) 11
59 139 POSTMASTER 10
60 139 THARAWAAT (IRE) 7
61 139 THE PACKAGE 9
62 139 WYMOTT (IRE) 8
63 138 GILES CROSS (IRE) 10
64 137 IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12
65 137 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10
66 137 VIKING BLOND (FR) 7
67 136 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10
68 136 SHAKERVILZ (FR) 9
69 136 QHILIMAR (FR) 8
70 134 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9
71 132 SOME TARGET (IRE) 8
72 132 TREACLE (IRE) 11
73 131 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 9
74 130 HELLO BUD (IRE) 14
75 130 OUR ISLAND (IRE) 7
76 130 SCHINDLER’S GOLD(IRE)10
77 129 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 11
78 127 KING FONTAINE (IRE) 9
79 125 BALLYVESEY (IRE) 7
80 123 ANOTHER PALM (IRE) 7
81 123 MINELLA THEATRE (IRE) 9
82 123 SMOKING ACES (IRE) 8
#242
February 1st, 2012 14:46
The winner will come from these…
12 154 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8
13 154 DEEP PURPLE 11
14 154 SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11
15 153 JUNIOR 9
16 153 QUANTITATIVEEASING(IRE7
17 153 TARTAK (FR) 9
18 152 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10
19 152 ROBERTO GOLDBACK(IRE)10
20 150 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9
21 150 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 9
22 150 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8
23 150 TATENEN (FR) 8
24 149 ACCORDING TO PETE 11
25 149 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE8
26 149 WEST END ROCKER (IRE)10
27 148 HECTOR’S CHOICE (FR) 8
28 148 MASSINI’S MAGUIR(IRE)11
29 148 PSYCHO (IRE) 11
30 148 ROULEZ COOL 9
31 148 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB(IRE11
32 147 ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 10
33 147 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10
34 147 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 10
35 147 COOLDINE (IRE) 10
36 147 CRESCENT ISLAND (IRE) 9
37 147 RARE BOB (IRE) 10
38 145 MON MOME (FR) 12
39 145 ORGANISEDCONFUSION(IRE7
40 144 HOLD ON JULIO (IRE) 9
41 144 SEABASS (IRE) 9
42 144 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 12
43 143 NORTHERN ALLIANCE(IRE11
44 143 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 8
45 143 PEARLYSTEPS 9
46 143 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE(FR9
47 143 QUISCOVER FONTAINE(FR)8
48 142 FAIR ALONG (GER) 10
49 142 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 11
50 142 STEWARTS HOUSE (IRE) 10
51 142 SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 9
52 141 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10
53 140 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 11
54 140 BACKSTAGE (FR) 10
55 140 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE(IRE9
56 140 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 9
57 140 STATE OF PLAY 12
58 140 SWING BILL (FR) 11
59 139 POSTMASTER 10
60 139 THARAWAAT (IRE) 7
61 139 THE PACKAGE 9
62 139 WYMOTT (IRE) 8
63 138 GILES CROSS (IRE) 10
64 137 IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12
65 137 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10
66 137 VIKING BLOND (FR) 7
67 136 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10
68 136 SHAKERVILZ (FR) 9
69 136 QHILIMAR (FR) 8
#243
February 1st, 2012 15:05
Bovril III Starting to sense a plot horse with Seabass as he is likely to get 10 st 5 lb ish if he can get the distance he could hose up with Ruby on board. Graham can you tell us with Paul only have Neptune & Niche if Ruby would be promised the ride on the Niche because if anybody could get him around the best most expedient route Ruby could? If not anybody any better idea what he may be on?
#244
February 1st, 2012 15:05
ST
Junior won over 2m 4f on the flat at Royal Ascot which is about as far as flat horses run
He’s won over 26f and placed over 28f over fences
In my opinion he appears to be improving over fences and tracked the leaders in the Kim Muir rather than trying to keep up with Midnight Chase (in a race where the ground was on the soft side for him)
True Any Currency caught him but Junior subsequently seemed to improve for a slight change in tactics and better ground, whereas AC appears to have gone the other way since that run
I haven’t decided about Killyglen and his Strong Gale yet (can see both arguments – that he was fading or that he was unlucky) but he was my first choice a few weeks after last year’s race for this year’s GN (also based on the principle that the longer away from his former UK-based trainer the better and he may yet fulfil his potential) – think his jockey in last year’s GN is the best around apart from the big three
#245
February 1st, 2012 15:09
stick with him pablo, killy wont be far off.
#246
February 1st, 2012 15:09
It would be a major plus to Nicholls horses if Ruby chose one of them when Willie Mullins has 12 entered
And should he choose Seabass then that would be a tip in itself I would have thought – blanking 14 other possible runners
#247
February 1st, 2012 15:10
dig dig dig!
I remember Mike your favs BecauseIcouldn’tsee and now you said earlier WER was also your top horse, which coincidently is now left top of my top 6 from last yr.
As we all know, Mike, you never vote!
which is fine,….but you always start on peoples choices.
The inaccuracy of your…..’jibe’ is just annoying, intentional or not. All you need to know is you seem to like starting arguments, so don’t take offense if people respond.
#248
February 1st, 2012 15:10
Meant to do this posts ago – welcome aboard RED ALLIGATOR
#249
February 1st, 2012 15:19
Pablo- absolutely agree, Ruby is key, as usual.
so its a must.
Seabass is interesting, will obviously be on if Ruby picks him, tipped up on here aswell. I will watch some videos see what I think first. I just had a shopping delivery and my seabass was missing
#250
February 1st, 2012 15:23
Hopefully I’m not the only one to speak out on this Blog when needed (though sometimes it feels I’m in a small minority to do so)..
So here goes AGAIN!:
Can we quit the dogmatic, blinkered views on here and ABSOLUTELY STOP the slagging off and dismissing of others opinions on here too.
Friendly debate and even respectful diametrically opposed views YES – but smart ar**d putting down of others NO WAY!
It’s only a few years ago that FRENCH BREDS were the home of the ‘can’t win/dismissed!!’ brigade – it came to pass.
Then it was PRESENTING offspring – it came to pass.
Re doseage: it is only common sense that the habits and traits that gradually set a pattern can gradually be moved away from/changed too.
Let us all on here have our freely expressed opinions without fear of being stats or doseage bashed.
Thankyou.
#251
February 1st, 2012 15:28
Thanks Showlad ! Re. thread 244 KJ
Last year I seem to remember at one point as race nearing a few heated arguments started, without anybody taking offence I am sure I speak for the majority when I say please! please ! lets not go there this year and everybody enjoy this blog for what it is a wonderful site, to all debate, encourage opinions and learn from the most experienced bloggers things like dosage,pedigree etc. some of which I for one don’t understand fully and am very grateful to learn.
#252
February 1st, 2012 15:34
Has there been an admin error? Why is Hector’s Choice in there?
Am I correct in thinking that you had to finish in the top four in a three mile race in order to be allowed to enter?
#253
February 1st, 2012 15:37
Great minds think alike Showlad !
We must have been typing at same time.
Back to the race, Bovril III I seem to remember you mentioning Treacle can’t remember the context, see he is entered all be it would need a good run to move up likely weights ? Also remember you mentioned Hold on Julio for 2013 see he is entered and may have a chance of getting in. Can you respond with a much info. as you have please. Ta
#254
February 1st, 2012 15:40
Just eliminated the non entries from our first list and from the original 42 we guessed at, 29 are going for Aintree at this stage. I’d have to say well done to everyone will voted.
#255
February 1st, 2012 15:44
#248 Agreed RA. The trouble is when the joy of that sharing then allows the sharer to think of themselves as the GN oracle lol
Can anyone do me the honour of posting up a summary of the negatives being voiced re both Junior and Killylgen. Been so many tos and fros so a summarised version would be great.
Both horses have great merit in my eyes.
#256
February 1st, 2012 15:45
#251 Thanks as ever Neil
#257
February 1st, 2012 15:47
Apologies if I upset anyone – no offence meant – sometimes difficult to put across a point and be diplomatic at the same time – must try harder
#258
February 1st, 2012 15:59
Never upset me Pablo (only ever slightly have me gurning when you take a long long time to answer a Q I put to you, ha ha).
Pablo could you do the honour of posting a VERY BRIEF and bullet pointed summary of the for and against claims re Killyglen and Junior – since you seem to be in loop with it just now?
Thanks
#259
February 1st, 2012 16:04
Showlad – have to go out now – will do so later this evening unless anyone beats me to it…
#260
February 1st, 2012 16:07
Pablo- what are you appologising for!?
Who thinks they are the oracle….. Showlad?
And why single my post out Red Alligator, I didn’t start!… agree though its not worth trying to stop certain people having a dig at your choices even if they are incorrect, its just taking the bait of a now well known firestarter.
Just watched Seabass’ run the other day, pretty good, though tendancy to throw head back every other jump not a great easy style. What was most noticable in that race was how quickly Rare Bob stopped.
#261
February 1st, 2012 16:15
Delighted to see The Package entered!
#262
February 1st, 2012 16:15
Pablo – thanks look forward to reading it tonight
KJ: I posted today how we should relate politely, informatively and kindly on here. I did NOT in ANY FORM form WHATSOEVER blame any individual AT ALL. So your calling of ME the oracle (have to laugh as SO flabbergasted by your accusation) is well out of order.
Think I’ll follow 7T and head off for the rest of the aft.
Cheers all.
#263
February 1st, 2012 16:16
Showlad – I ran both Junior & Killyglen through my scoresheet earlier. Many positives for both but if you want negatives, here goes:-
Killyglen –
1) OR141, low for a GN winner
2) Not within 4 of best OR
3) 5 FUPUs (fallen/PU)
4) Strong Gale.
Junior –
1) Just 7 chases/3Hcaps
2) No Preps – will be below the norm
3) Not proven at racing weight.
A good run from either will help their case.
#264
February 1st, 2012 16:23
KJ I promise you I was not singling you out I did say to all please don’t take offence.You appeared to be responding to what you perceived as a jibe. All I asked for is that everybody plse have dialogue in a respectful way. Despite winning on Seabass I still didn’t see race so intrigued to know what site you watched it on and do you need to pay?
#265
February 1st, 2012 16:42
Reading Thaimark’s comment re.Junior 7 chases/3 hcaps No preps,expected to have only 1. Just wondering what all think in relation to race evolving every year,tendency now not to rule out over 11st after last couple of winners.Will some other stats change as trainers seek “Modern” ways of training a chaser. State of Play doesn’t seem to need a prep run and has run pretty well last few years or is he just an enigma and a GN horse. I admit I ask this question because I have already backed Junior and have ignored stats oops! hoping Pipe Junior knows this is best way for this horse. As for not proven at racing weight, this must apply to quite a few horses over the years and sometimes you never know you have to trust your instincts as to which ones you think will improve and which won’t. Sometimes you get it ALWAYS RIGHT and sometimes you don’t that’s the reason we all keep trying.
#266
February 1st, 2012 16:48
Showlad- What is going on? you have taken that the wrong way. I thought you were accusing me!
What everyone here surely knows is I never start anything, but will stand up for myself and defend others as you have done also Showlad over the years. We like this site for obvious reasons.
Not sure how to take Mike sometimes but he can seem offensive and I took offense and responded, sorry I shouldn’t have.
No idea what Pablo was apologising for, bizarre day,…this just shows how the written word can be taken in a number of ways. Anyway, one can’t help but feel mike is enjoying the fight, I could be wrong. I was not going to respond at all, wish I hadn’t. Was going to follow 7T off too! My sincere apologies for all this nonsense.
#267
February 1st, 2012 17:00
Thanks Red- I’m obviously taking things personally today and its catching. I watched the race on attheraces.com its free and you just have to sign up with your email ad. Would be interested what you thought of both Seabass jumping style and Rare bobs run.
#268
February 1st, 2012 17:10
#244
kj
February 1st, 2012 15:10
dig dig dig!
I remember Mike your favs BecauseIcouldn’tsee and now you said earlier WER was also your top horse, which coincidently is now left top of my top 6 from last yr.
As we all know, Mike, you never vote!
which is fine,….but you always start on peoples choices.
The inaccuracy of your…..’jibe’ is just annoying, intentional or not. All you need to know is you seem to like starting arguments, so don’t take offense if people respond.
KJ please do not take things personally, i actually enjoy reading your posts sometimes. It was just a case of identifying the wrong person in respect of Niche Market so apologies for that.
In relation to West End Rocker and BCIS I have backed them both so naturally they will be my top horses. And I will vote when it matters i.e. after the weights are published.
If I rub people the wrong way the problem lies with them not me. Im just giving my opinion at the time. At least i am giving reasons as to why horses might NOT win, might help reduce the field a bit for others. cheers.
#269
February 1st, 2012 17:21
Prince de beauchene entered. Great news, now my number 1 off down to the bookies for my first proper bet.
#270
February 1st, 2012 17:35
Is it too early to guess no. 40
Could be a lower than usual OR this year. Tracle maybe?
Dont rule out McCoy riding Sunnyhillboy after his run in the Irish National. Hopefully he O’Neill will favour Aintree for that one this year.
#271
February 1st, 2012 17:59
Right, I think we all know that people can read things differently from how they are intended. It’s the nature of the beast. But can we stop any more apologies etc because it’s getting in the way of reading more important stuff when scrolling down
-Mon Mome interests me
-Prince de Beauchene interests me
-The Package interests me if he is fit and gets a couple of runs under his belt. David Pipe has not responded to my tweet a few weeks ago
#272
February 1st, 2012 18:04
If we can all avoid the BLAZING TEMPO in the future we could all avoid going DEEP PURPLE.
Then we could adopt the APT APPROACH which would cut out the ORGANISEDCONFUSION caused by people thinking they are ALWAYS RIGHT, BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE what all the upset is all about. After all we have all been waiting to find out the STATE OF PLAY which horses had the National as SOME TARGET so that we can all decide ON HIS OWN so to speak how to use ANY CURRENCY on the horses we think are IN COMPLIANCE. We have HECTORS CHOICE, which is up to him, ACCORDING TO PETE its another horse, its RARE BOB gets it wrong, but its all about opinions. HOLD ON JULIO did KJ say the supermarket did not deliver his SEABASS maybe if he gone to a NICHE MARKET he would have found a winner. I went around to STEWARTS HOUSE,to speak to some of my mates WEIRD AL, VIC VENTURI,then canvassed my family UNCLE JUNIOR,LITTLE JOSH and JUNIOR and they all said we should get our opinions SYNCHRONISED because thats the aim of our blog!!
#273
February 1st, 2012 18:07
Sorry Speedy last post only a bit of fun!
#274
February 1st, 2012 18:18
Very witty Red Alligator
all done up in a nice neat PACKAGE did you ALFA BEAT your brains for that.
#275
February 1st, 2012 18:18
Amusing! I was hoping you would have found a clever way to get MON MOME in there!
#276
February 1st, 2012 18:21
Cooldine interesting. Out of form but if he can rekindle some enthusiasm he is of massive interest.
#277
February 1st, 2012 18:26
Thought The Package didn’t take to the race when he ran in it?
#278
February 1st, 2012 18:28
Midnight Chase is still in ! woohoo . Come on Lady Clarke – please please at least consider it !
#279
February 1st, 2012 18:28
Haha
I knew there was some fun to be had in that lot and don’t worry I’ve stopped MON MOME ing!
#280
February 1st, 2012 18:29
Seabass seems more of a 2 1/2 mile horse? [although campaigned over further earlier in his career? a plot horse??]. However, can I say that I do not want this horse to win as it’s got the horriblest name since Numbersixvalverde [who I didn't back because of his name; ooerrr.....]
#281
February 1st, 2012 18:46
Hi Ewok,
Cooldine is down to run against the midnight club tomorrow at Clonmel over 2.5 mls.
#282
February 1st, 2012 18:48
Good spot! Thanks Mike.
#283
February 1st, 2012 19:24
Not alot of confidence in the market for Midnight Chase running it would seem again Silver.
Just checked the odds-
Midnight Chase gone out with four bookies.
Killyglen has generally gone out to all round 33s so would seem little confidence in him, but in stark contrast Ladbrokes have him at 14-1!?
Mon Mome is a drifter too.
Junior is firming up as favourite, with Ballabriggs 2nd fav and we haven’t seen either of them jump a twig since april and june respectively.
Junior is due out after weights announced, in the Haydock GN trial on 18th feb and Ballabriggs has no other entries yet! I think there is hope for Black Apalachi!
There seems to be a reason to rule out everything this year, I think weights will help sort a little….if not some runs!
#284
February 1st, 2012 19:42
Hi all:
Very very interesting>
If you have followed my Irish whispers (before last Saturday and if you were not on Seabass then yah boo sucks!!) this has been toted since Jan by Ted W. and shrewdies have marked my (and by extension see posts above) yours!
Now before you get carried away…it hasn’t qualified! It has to be placed in a 3m chase BEFORE March 20th, Has entry in The Racing Post Chase (Kempton 3m) 25/02. It won its maiden P2P over 3 m and has won over 22f on heavy and on Saturday was going away from a good field over 20f (hehe 17/2 I got a/p!!)
Out of that have already had a cheeky £5 ew at 50′s as am convinced it will place at Kempton or am sure Ted will find another race if needs be.
Big if…but if Ruby fancies it…and I cant comment on how good some of Willie M’s are…and takes the ride then whoo hoo! If Katie does (and I really rate her) I would be worried as she has fallen on 2 attempts over the fences.
The other Irish horse have had whispered is Treacle (see post above) and my guess is the last 3 years its been #75-80 on original weights list that has got in so not worried by that and if can get 100′s or better I may have a nibble…
They said they would swerve it this year for Organisedcon. but havent….interesting…!!
Sorry NTD thats cruel re Hello Bud….if they upped it to 7yo’s they should surely cap it at 13yo’s tops….
Like the idea that some real bottom weights should get in and might spice it up….and give bigger weights spread…
Re comments on jocks and record: 2 years ago I did a Grand Prix thing giving them sim points for 1st down to 6th (and 1 pt for getting round) and AP McCoy was 3rd (to Ruby W and Barry G) BEFORE DPI’s year/s…..
My lala’s of top jocks are Tom Scu and Richard J for number of rides and poor record…
Phew….!!
#285
February 1st, 2012 19:48
Oh and some Seabass form that might count?
He beat Stewarts House (Gd Sefton winner) during his 6 timer….but I know everyone will harp on about a 2 and 1/2 miler…I would rather trust Ted W’s judgement ta!!
The/my real ‘didnt expect to see it there but v. interesting’ is ….Burton Port…and I am certain they will keep Hold On Julio for next year although in Jan I touted him…
#286
February 1st, 2012 19:55
I don’t see a problem with Hello Bud’s entry personally he is relatively lightly raced for a 14yo and Nigel T D does well with old stagers .Camelot Knight had a nice run round in 2000 at 14
#287
February 1st, 2012 19:55
Using Thaimarks post 238 runnners in OR order could one of you very wise men guess Phil’s weights using Synchronised as whatever u think he will give eg. 11st 10lbs and give yr best guesstimate what weights horses fancied on this site will get. I know its not going to be an exact science but it may give the less experienced of us an idea whether it may be worth taking a chance Ante Post price on favourite horses (at the moment) before bookies take a large scalpel to the prices after weights released. I know its a risk but may be worth a bob or two when you consider the way they will slash prices.
#288
February 1st, 2012 20:04
Disappointed not to see Long Run get an entry, but wasn’t really expecting it. Hey ho.
Speedyseagull
I daresay you’re as familiar with the footage of The Package blundering around in rear for a circuit in the 2010 race as I am…so what have you noticed about the beast that no-one else has picked up on?
#289
February 1st, 2012 20:11
Red Alligator: At The Races website for all Irish racing.
You have to register via an email addy and fill in info to confirm you are 18 but no fee/cost.
Trust me Seabass was ‘havin a laugh’ with them on Saturday and won going away…!!!
#290
February 1st, 2012 20:21
Pablo: re post over Ruby W’s choice:
2 years ago I tried every way possible to gently explain here that BOTH Ruby W and AP McCoy had not even glanced at Arbor S. (JP Mac owned Willie M trained) and that should have been screaming ‘not even with a 10ft pole’ with bells on!!
The thread basically slagged me for dissing their ‘precious’ and yet AP won the thing Ruby got injured but Barry G finished 4th on what Ruby was down to ride and Arbor S….well, the least said…!!!
As Harry Findlay (legendary punter and part owner of Denman) said…what counts is Information, Information and Information not form…and am sure he would have said the best two riders giving a ride a swerve was all the Information you needed!!!
Phew thats a 2 years monkey now off my back
#291
February 1st, 2012 20:23
yes of course Im buzzing…the entries are out but last post of the eve…
Neil (A&SM) are we having a pre weights top six vote???
#292
February 1st, 2012 20:26
Hi Bovril 111.
I think seabass came 3rd in a 3ml h/cap chase at Thurles in 2010. I would be worried that it has been raised 49lbs since then & will Phil take a cautious view of its last good win and raise it above OR144 ? Also only won at 3mls in Point to points and was beaten at 3 miles in only chase under rules. 40 or 50-1 just seems a bit short unless your inside information is strong. Any thoughts?
#293
February 1st, 2012 20:26
I see Paul Nicholls has gone for a ‘quality not quantity’ approach this year. Niche Market’s chance we know about, but Neptune Collonges has quite a nice profile for the race. Sure he is a bit on the small side, but that didn’t stop the likes of Seagram, Young Hustler and Docklands Express running decent races from high weights.
Willie Mullins and Dessie Hughes have getting on for a quarter of the entries between them. Surely they won’t all turn up?
#294
February 1st, 2012 20:58
Mike C:
The whisper re Seabass ia its a plot horse (does anyone remember how Papillon was backed in to fav. when ‘word’ got out…?) and it cant do anything more than
A) Run up a 6 timer (yes 1 P2P in that but Irish points are not far off Class 3 chases here)
B) Ruby has specially gone back to ride it 3 times
My concern is that all its form is on soft to heavy and it is unlikely to get that in April at Aintree but I have followed the plot so far and mentioned it last week and lets face it what more could the horse have done on Sat to convince its well worth going another chapter or two with…??;)
Plus am £50+ up on the beast so a cheeky £5 ew is not an issue!! I think it will come in to 33′s tops and prob 25′s before long…and less if it runs a big race at Kempton.
Out of interest (and am holding 66/1 on Junior from last year if anyone cares to check back…) Seabass beat Saddlers Storm in his P2P…the same Saddlers Storm who was 11th behind Juniour at Chelt….so it enhances my other main fancy!!
To conclude: Seabass may not tick a lot of boxes but its my ‘one to follow’ as things stand at the moment as th einfo I have had is top notch (and got me minted on Saturday!)
Treacle has won a Munster National (66k) but had a problem (3 x PU) and has been put right and as had gone down the ratings has started back at lower level and is on the rise again.
VG 2nd last time out and is moving in the right direction even at his age!!
If gets in with say 10-2 or less you have to have a look…is the info/whisper have had..and with only 82 entries and last few years it has been between #75-80 who have got in…then its looking good!
Alan K. has been a bit disingenuous with Hang On Julio. (doh ..trainer talks sh*te non-shock!) He said needs more experience and 2013 would be his GN year and I have 50′s a/p for that!! Wasnt expecting to see his name at all but wont be leaving alone if it does turn up on the day…
Thing is…several others have caught the eye too…but will mention tomorrow…!!
#295
February 1st, 2012 21:27
Have diverted some Betfair monies to Seabass at 50s – have to have him in my book
On reflection he’s by far the most interesting entry for me, especially should he win after weights out off 144 or more – of course it could go belly up
Very excited to see this one after weights out
#296
February 1st, 2012 21:32
Is there a page where you can discuss systems? I respect opinions but this page doesn’t seem to whittle the field down too much.
#297
February 1st, 2012 21:38
Bovril 111.
Many thanks & very useful. I was certainly impressed with its front running performance last saturday.
Good luck
#298
February 1st, 2012 21:39
Stats courtesy of Crisp73:
Since 1990 there have been 13 GN’s where bottom weight has been OR137 or higher and so the out and out ‘plodders’ are not getting lumps of weight of the classy types?
In those 13 GN’s the winners had;
13/13 posted RPR153 or higher
12/13 posted left handed RPR154 or higher
11/13 had won a chase off OR139 or higher (Bobbyjo hadn’t, not sure about Party Politics)
13/13 had won 1 of their last 6 chases
12/13 had won 4 or more chases
(Lord Gyllene 3 from 10)
12/13 had won 5 or more times over jumps or hurdles (Lord Gyllene 3 from 10)
So will the 2012 GN have;
1; posted an RPR153 or higher
2; posted a left handed RPR154 or higher
3; won a chase off OR139 or higher
4; won one of it’s last 6 chases
5; won 4 or more chases
6; won 5 or more times over fences/hurdles?
#299
February 1st, 2012 21:43
Isn’t it madness to part with money before the horse has actually qualified? If I have read these posts correctly there are a number entered that have still not yet qualified i.e Hector’s Choice, Seabass, Psycho, Little Josh & Quantitativeeasing.
Couple this with those that haven’t even won over three miles yet –
Another Palm
Becauseicouldntsee
Blazing Tempo
Crescent Island
Fair Along
Hectors Choice
In Compliance
Little Josh
Minella Theatre
Our Island
Psycho
Quantitativeeasing
Quel Esprit
Quiscover Fontaine
Schindlers Gold
Seabass
Shakervilz
Stewarts House
Sunnyhillboy
Tartak
Tatenen
and you’re looking at a whole host that on stats can be discounted.
#300
February 1st, 2012 21:49
Seabass has placed in a 3 mile handicap chase and is 9 years old – as I understand it he’s fine
#301
February 1st, 2012 21:52
You’re right! It was Shakervilz I was thinking of.
Still I think I’ve got it down to 61 on the 3 mile rule!
#302
February 1st, 2012 22:01
Thaimark did a great job bringing us the list in Official ratings order, although think there might be a few clangers with the Irish runners which I have tried to correct here. Assuming the usual compression, and a few extra pounds for Hello Bud and Ballyvesey for Aintree from, I reckon he will shoehorn 79/82 into the handicap
1 168 SYNCHRONISED 11 10
2 164 WEIRD AL 11 9
3 163 MIDNIGHT CHASE 11 9
4 160 BURTON PORT 11 8
5 160 BALLABRIGGS 11 8
6 159 PLANET OF SOUND 11 7
7 159 NEPTUNE COLLONGES 11 7
8 159 CALGARY BAY 11 7
9 156 APT APPROACH 11 6
10 155 ROBERTO GOLDBACK 11 6
11 155 ALFA BEAT 11 6
12 154 DEEP PURPLE 11 5
13 154 BLAZING TEMPO 11 5
14 153 QUANTITATIVEEASING 11 4
15 153 TARTAK 11 4
16 153 SCOTSIRISH 11 4
17 153 JUNIOR 11 4
18 153 QUEL ESPRIT 11 4
19 152 LITTLE JOSH 11 3
20 150 TATENEN 11 2
21 150 CHICAGO GREY 11 2
22 150 COOLDINE 11 2
23 149 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 11 1
24 149 WEST END ROCKER 11 1
25 149 ACCORDING TO PETE 11 1
26 148 ROULEZ COOL 11 0
27 148 PSYCHO 11 0
28 148 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 11 0
29 148 HECTOR’S CHOICE 11 0
30 148 ORGANISEDCONFUSION 11 0
31 148 MASSINI’S MAGUIRE 11 0
32 147 RARE BOB 10 13
33 147 CRESCENT ISLAND 10 13
34 147 CAPPA BLEU 10 13
35 147 ALWAYS RIGHT 10 13
36 147 ARBOR SUPREME 10 13
37 146 BLACK APALACHI 10 12
38 145 MON MOME 10 12
39 144 SEABASS 10 11
40 144 VIC VENTURI 10 11
41 144 HOLD ON JULIO 10 11
42 143 PEARLYSTEPS 10 10
43 143 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 10 10
44 143 THARAWAAT 10 10
45 143 NORTHERN ALLIANCE 10 10
46 143 ON HIS OWN 10 10
47 142 STEWARTS HOUSE 10 9
48 142 SUNNYHILLBOY 10 9
49 142 UNCLE JUNIOR 10 9
50 142 FAIR ALONG 10 9
51 142 NICHE MARKET 10 9
52 141 QUISCOVER FONTAINE 10 8
53 141 KILLYGLEN 10 8
54 140 STATE OF PLAY 10 7
55 140 SWING BILL 10 7
56 140 ALWAYS WAINING 10 7
57 140 BACKSTAGE 10 7
58 140 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 10 7
59 140 LE BEAU BAI 10 7
60 139 WYMOTT 10 6
61 139 SHAKERVILZ 10 6
62 139 POSTMASTER 10 6
63 139 THE PACKAGE 10 6
64 138 GILES CROSS 10 5
65 137 IN COMPLIANCE 10 5
66 137 VIKING BLOND 10 5
67 137 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10 5
68 136 QHILIMAR 10 4
69 135 HELLO BUD 10 4
70 134 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 10 3
71 133 SOME TARGET 10 3
72 132 TREACLE 10 3
73 131 SADDLERS STORM 10 2
74 131 ANY CURRENCY 10 2
75 130 BALLYVESEY 10 2
76 130 OUR ISLAND 10 2
77 130 SCHINDLER’S GOLD 10 2
78 129 ABBEYBRANEY 10 1
79 127 KING FONTAINE 10 0
80 126 ANOTHER PALM 9 13
81 125 SMOKING ACES 9 12
82 123 MINELLA THEATRE 9 11
#303
February 1st, 2012 22:05
Gone back to basics with a little GN system i have. Now have a good short list i will post tomorrow along with the system.
Its surprising how few runners in at the shorter prices (33/1 or less) have a good stats fit.
#304
February 1st, 2012 22:06
Thanks for that list TKC
Those horses have until March 20th (second forfeit stage) to comply with the terms of getting 4th place or better under rules in a 3 miles or further chase.
My point is this as time elapses they would have to find a weak race to qualify. Either by a race cutting up, or by sending them in as low grade race as they possibly can.
The question is then have they truly stayed or merely outclassed their opponets.
This list in my opinion will have a question mark against them and until they fulfill that condition will be treated as a non runner because they will be forced out at that point.
Bovril are we having a pre weight top 6 vote?
A fortnight will soon pass, however if you want one then how about a mini vote of 3 up to to the 12th (Sunday) before the weights get published.
IF IT’S ALRIGHT WITH THE OTHERS THOUGH!
JUST DONE THE DOSAGE AND WILL BE PRINTED PROBABLY AT WEEKEND.
#305
February 1st, 2012 22:12
“posted a left handed RPR154 or higher”
If any team member has the highest RPR Left Handed (so far)say for the teams top 20 list it would be useful to see. Anyone? (I dont have access to this info).
“So will the 2012 GN have;
1; posted an RPR153 or higher
2; posted a left handed RPR154 or higher
3; won a chase off OR139 or higher
4; won one of it’s last 6 chases
5; won 4 or more chases
6; won 5 or more times over fences/hurdles?”
Most probably 5 at least of these six if not all six.
#306
February 1st, 2012 22:27
They’ve got to retire Hello Bud. He runs his heart out still, but he’s too old. It’s not right.
#307
February 1st, 2012 22:49
Niche Market looks good on that low low OR (trainer done a great job!! and if he can just be held up just a little more to make that distance who knows?) but for me to even consider him for a win (not EW which may be a good bet) he needs a win this season (long long overdue and would do a world of good for his confidence – been crying out for this for some time, after weights out ofcourse). At this point others have a better profile.
#308
February 1st, 2012 22:53
Maureen
Remember Mac Vidi!
Systemsman
I am intrigued because my stats are telling me some very strange things too this year. I will look forward to your post.
I’ve tested my scoring based system for the last three renewals and the first four always come out in my top nine (I don’t have any issues with backing a 5th of the field) I did this primarily to see if Mon Mome was in the list and indeed Cerium and rather elatedly and belatedly they both were with Mon Mome actually coming out on top as did Ballabriggs last year!
My stats are not finished because they will take into account running in a chase at Cheltenham and all subsequent form between now and the race plus of course weight.
However, my nine as they currently stand are thus –
Le Beau Bai
According To Pete
Midnight Chase
Scotsirish
Rare Bob
Uncle Junior
Always Right
Giles Cross
Chicago Grey
I’d be interested to see if you have some of these less touted names high up on your list.
Conversely my bottom 20 are as follows,
Tharawaat
Abbeybraney
Minella Theatre
Burton Port
Hectors Choice
Vic Venturi
Wymott
Backstage
On His Own
Pearly Steps
Shakervilz
Quel Esprit
Schindlers Gold
Killyglen
In Compliance
Weird Al
Viking Blond
Another Palm
Quantitativeeasing
Our Island
These will have to do something amazing and unlikely to work they way into my top nine.
#309
February 1st, 2012 23:13
kedi dangalak
February 1st, 2012 20:04
Disappointed not to see Long Run get an entry, but wasn’t really expecting it. Hey ho.
Speedyseagull
I daresay you’re as familiar with the footage of The Package blundering around in rear for a circuit in the 2010 race as I am…so what have you noticed about the beast that no-one else has picked up on?
———————-
Just looked at the re-run again. He didn’t actually blunder many at all. He took the majority of the fences OK but landed very flat footed after most of them and lost momentum. That caused him to be outpaced early, but he had made decent headway into midfield before departing at the 19th. No idea where he would have finished but I would imagine he could have taken 4th or 5th judging by the way he usually stays on at the end of races.
Based on that, an unlikely winner. However he was 7 then and we know what a poor record 7 year olds have. However, this is irrelevant anyway as would need to see a couple of decent comeback runs before I would consider backing him e/w.
I hope he doesn’t end up like another Pipe runner – Over the Creek. A talented stayer who could injured for a year and a half and was useless when he did finally come back.
#310
February 1st, 2012 23:43
Number and best price of winners on weights day;
Mr Frisk no. 12 – 102 entries ; 40/1
Seagram 21 – 92 ; 25/1
Party Politics 13 – 110 ; 25/1
Miinnehoma 18 – 97 ; at least 33/1
Royal Athlete 14 – 80 ; at least 33/1
Rough Quest 19 – 75 ; 33/1
Lord Gyllene 22 – 99 ; 20/1
Earth Summit 15 – 104 ; 25/1
Bobbyjo 46 – 95 ; at least 33/1
Papillon 30 – 99 ; at least 40/1
Red Marauder 29 – 133 ; at least 40/1
Bindaree 35 – 139 ; 33/1
Monty’s Pass 44 – 148 ; at least 33/1
Amberleigh House 39 – 122 ; 25/1
Hedgehunter 33 – 152 ; 25/1
Numbersixvalverde 55 – 148 ; 25/1
Silver Birch ??????
Comply Or Die 59 – 150 ; 25/1?
Mon Mome 34 – 124 ; 50/1
Dont Push It 11 – 111 ; 25/1?
Ballabriggs 16 – 101 ; 16/1
#311
February 2nd, 2012 00:15
Just to clarify… the following are the horses not currently qualified to run as they have not placed in a Chase over 3 miles and over…
Hectors Choice
In Compliance
Little Josh
Minella Theatre
Psycho
Quantitativeeasing
Quel Esprit
Schindlers Gold
Shakervilz
as stated before, they have until after Cheltenham to run 1st, 2nd ,3rd or 4th in a qualifying Chase.
#312
February 2nd, 2012 00:19
Roberto Goldback is slightly interesting. Seems to have stayed on quite nicely at the end of his 3m+ races…
#313
February 2nd, 2012 00:28
#142 RED ALLIGATOR apology accepted……. #247 SHOWLAD well said,at the end of the day we are all on this forum for one thing and one thing only to find the 2012 GN WINNER,it doesn’t matter how we find it as long as we find it, everyone’s entitled to there opinion so come on bloggers BEHAVE………….
#314
February 2nd, 2012 00:40
Thanks for confirming non qualifiers YCroatia, this new criteria slipped my mind and thanks to all helpful contributers today that just got on with it. Apology accepted Mike N.
I’m glad in a way, the team so far think its a strange year in terms of horses that have the right profile on their systems and the top half of the betting market. I am finding it pretty unappealing myself. Like I said other than State of Play, I want to see some of the favourites in the betting run this term, just once before I will go near them. Ballabriggs could do it again if he is well and form does matter, well it does in my book.
#315
February 2nd, 2012 01:32
YCroatia good work but In Compliance and Shakervilz have been placed over 3 miles
#316
February 2nd, 2012 02:37
Kendal Cavalier- Your top9 I would agree is a little ‘strange’ some would need a slow race probably in heavier conditions or a jockey miracle! That list makes me think I should reconsider Giles Cross off a low weight.
I was hoping to see a good run from Rare Bob the other day, but after watching the race I am concerned how everything flew past him, having won at 21f, however he did continue and finish, it could be a real plot. He is a neat jumper and was fourth to niche in the Irish national aged 7. So jury still out here.
Its what leads me back to tried and tested horses, although we all now a first timer is far more likely to win than an old timer
Now, I don’t want to reignite Mikes mistaken opinion that I only like the Niche, but… he does in some ways seem to be in a better position than last year, even if he’s slapped with a few special becher pounds.
Systemsman I am not bothered if niche doesn’t win something before the race, he has proven his well being this term, likes the course and if the tongue stays in place has a great chance of coming second
Now lets find the winner!
#317
February 2nd, 2012 06:21
LEFT HANDED RPR 154+ – thanks Pablo, I think it was you who got me in to rolling averages. I believe the current 10 year LH RPR rolling average is 151.1 (and increasing every year). More stats on why this is important:-
In 2011 4 of the first 5 home had LH RPRs of 154+ (other was on 152).
First 4 in each of the last 3 GNs boasted a minimum LH RPR of 150.
I wouldn’t be having anything less than 152/153 this year. Can somebody provide that list of LH RPRs for this years entries??
#318
February 2nd, 2012 09:57
Even though he doesn’t figure on my list I had a crafty fiver on Cooldine two weeks ago when he was 280′s on Betfair. I have seen his price diminish day on day and will be interested if he shows any zest this afternoon.
#319
February 2nd, 2012 10:22
Thaimark/ all. Those high RPR’s will probably prevail but I think it will also be due to the overall standard of the race re; average OR of the field on the day.
An average OR of the field doesn’t completely indicate the class of the field but I reckon it’s a good indicator.
From 90-99 average OR of field was 143+, RPR’s of winners was 153+. From 2000 to 2007 average OR dipped to between 134 and 141 and we had RPR’S of winners as low as 144 and 146. From 2008 to 2011 the average OR back up to 144+ and RPR’s of winners have been 155 x2, 160 and 154.
#320
February 2nd, 2012 10:37
Found a quote from the handicapper back in 2000 saying that first he tries to level up the first six or seven home from the previous GN, if they run, and those that ran in the Becher. Perhaps West End Rocker might get ‘bechered’ on weights day?
#321
February 2nd, 2012 11:11
“crisp73
February 1st, 2012 23:43
Number and best price of winners on weights day”
Ofcourse that was best price. Most winners in the last 10 years or mote were 33/1 or less in the high street on weights day (Mon Mome was)- so its worth checking the Racing Post on weights day and looking at the high street prices ( i always draw a line under anything with more than one quote at 50/1). Its why i think the winner will be in the top 10 and probably top six in price on GN day.
Currently the winner should be lurking in this list somewhere: Betfair prices in order.
Junior
West End Rocker
Ballabriggs
Shakalakaboomboom
The Midnight Club
On His Own
Cappa Bleu
Synchronised
Calgary Bay
Always Right
Niche Market
Chicage Grey
Killyken
Prince De Beauchene
Planet Of Sound
Organisedconfusion
And some of thew can be disconted to to too high Or or too low.
#322
February 2nd, 2012 11:24
Ballabriggs – high in weights
On His Own – inexperienced over fences
Cappa Bleu – inexperienced over fences
Synchronised – high in weights
Always Right – may go to Ayr
Planet Of Sound – high in weights
That narrows it down a bit.
#323
February 2nd, 2012 11:35
According to something I read a while ago (maybe Mark Howard’s book?) Prince De Beauchene was sent to Mullins rather than Nicholls because it was felt he’d prefer the softer ground in Ireland
I know he’s won on good but that’s what I remeber reading – of course his prevuous trainer may have completely misjudged the horse – it wouldn’t be a first
#324
February 2nd, 2012 11:58
So here it is the “Basic GN System” (i will only post it this one time ever) that will produce a short list that on many occassions will include the winner. Youll be surprised how short a short list its produces (you do need to update it right up to final declarations). It comes from a raacing system book whose name i have forgotten. If you had just uesed this sytem over the last 15 years you would have got the winner many times in a very short list on race day.
2011 No (Ballabriggs had no 1/2/3 in a 25f chase current season)
2010 Yes Dont Push It 3stars (no negative)
2009 No Mon Mome 100/1 on day (but was 33/1 on weights day)
2008 Yes Comply or Die 3stars (no negative)
Rules (all rules apply to race day):
Rule 1 (one star).
Weight
11.05 down to 10.00 (long handicap 9.08 or above)
Rule 2 (one star)
Stamina
Include only horses which have been placed (won/2nd or 3rd) in a chase at 25f or further in the CURRENT season (would have missed winner in 2011).
Rule 3 (one star)
Odds
33/1 or less at the start of race.
Now we have a few + or minus points to take into account.
Positive (+)
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Placed 2nd to 8th and finsished with the field (not walked over finish line).
Negative (- AND -)
Eliminate any hosre which has complteed in a CHASE for NOVICES druring the CURRENT season. Also a negative point(-) if in the previous racing season (but its still possible to win so dont eliminate).
Negative (-)
Eliminate any horse that has failed to complete the course in a chase more than once in the current season.
Negative (-)
Eliominate any horse that has run more than six (i use 7) times in the current season.
Negative (-)
Eliminate horses that have not won 3 times over fences (Chase).
So there we have it.
Will post this years results so far in a minute (remember a runner can still qualify for three stars right up to the last week so you do need to review results as you go along).
We are loking for 3stars (or 3 stars +)and also consider 3 stars -.
#325
February 2nd, 2012 12:31
Basic Grand National System (see post 322).
So who looks good in 2012 with three stars? using the Betfair list (post 319) – the top 16 in price. You may even with the list want to add other filters to produce your own results (but you can be over complex and lead to you missing the winner as i have done the last three years, i had “overworked” the stats!! – keep it simple).
Looking at top 16 on Betfair only so far:
3 stars – looking like a winner (+ OR/RPR):
West End Rocker +6
Organised Confusion +5
3 stars with one minus (novice last seson)- could still be a winner:
Shakalakaboomboom +4
Chicargo Grey +5
2 Stars but who may get 3stars (if 1/2/3 at 25f or more chase this season)- could still get into 3star winner list):
Junior +4
On His Own +10
Killyken +14
Always Waining +9
Prince De Beauchene +9
Always Right +5
3 stars who need a chase win this season (do not have 3 chase win minimum so far)- eliminated if they dont get that win:
Cappa Bleu +4
Niche Market +12
Conclusion:
My top six at this stage has to be:
1.West End Rocker +6
3.Junior +4 (confident he will get that 1/2/3 at 25f or more – if not forget it!)
2.Organised Confusion +5
4.Shakalakaboomboom +4
5.Chicargo Grey +5
Will leave that six choice open at this point depending on future results.
This list could change due to future results but WER and Organised Confusion will still be in there having already got a their perfect 3 stars. Come on Junior get that race in after weights out!
Hope this helps a few.
Views????
#326
February 2nd, 2012 12:38
Amnedment to my short list.
I think we need to take Organised Confusion out of the 3 star list and put it into the 2 star list – waiting for a 1/2/3 at 25f or more this season. His Irish National win was on 25th April and is placed in this season on the Racing Post site. I think in the past we have only counted results from 1st September as this season and i shall stick to this.
So ONLY WER with a perfect 3 stsr score no far with no negative.
#327
February 2nd, 2012 13:19
Just popped into bookies Hills to check prices now we have a list of runners. Horrified slashed lots pre weights. According to todays Racing Post just to highlight three possible whisper horses from Bovril III Seabass best price 33/1,Hold on Julio best price 25/1,Treacle 40/1 unbelievable !! They must have at least half the field at less than 33/1.
#328
February 2nd, 2012 13:26
At this stage I reckon Prince De Beauchene is the pick of the Irish. He does need a top performance this season and he’s a bit light on runs at 24f+(in recent times only Red Marauder had ran less than 7 times over 24f or more)
Add to earlier post re average OR field. The winning OR has followed the average OR to a certain degree.
(A window of opportunity in each GN? No horse has carried more than 14lbs above bottom weight since ’83. Only RhymeNReason and Dont Push It have carried more than 12lbs)
From 1990 to 1999 the winning OR was between 149 and 155 except Bobbyjo 142. From 2000 to 2007 it was between 136 and 144. From 2008 to 2011 it has been between 148 and 153 except Comply Or Die 139.
Comply Or Die is interesting because I reckon he could be the lowest ranked horse in his GN at weights day to win. Of course he was a top novice, placed in RSA, who got injured and went down the handicap and won big time after weights day and was, in theory, something like a stone well in on race day? If there isn’t a COD lurking around this year I’m convinced the winner will be in the top 41 on weights day.
#329
February 2nd, 2012 13:32
Wonder whether they’ll stick with Wayne Hutchinson for WER or give the ride to stable jockey Choc Thornton – all his chase wins have been with Wayne in the saddle.
#330
February 2nd, 2012 13:42
Oh. I was hoping for something to concur with my list. That’s a blow.
Although my scoring system doesn’t use elimination I have tested it on the last three and it has worked for all three renewals, so I guess I have to stick by it.
And all my criteria has been inspired by the well informed stuff I find on here.
However, I have been a bit controversial with one criterion – that of a lady jockey. Organisedconfusion has scored minus points because Nina Carberry is the expected pilot and that is the cause for him to sit just outisde of the top nine I have. Am I sexist?!
#331
February 2nd, 2012 13:51
Crisp- I also think it could be a big chance for a horse in the 140s. There are quite a few to I like, new and old!
Even been reconsidering Giles Cross on lowly 138. He’s certainly the traditional type, put a line through him at the start, however give him credit, he has often been second to Synchronised and last time to a back to form Beau Bai, he will probably get a few more pounds from them both. In a wet april national scenario, he could be in the mix.
#332
February 2nd, 2012 13:55
I also believe – and I don’t have my scoresheet to hand – that not having won a race under rules for over 730 days (731 for a leap year) is a massive negative. I think there are quite a number that fall into this category as we speak one of whom runs later.
#333
February 2nd, 2012 14:05
Correction, 1990-98 OR was between 147 and 155.
#334
February 2nd, 2012 14:05
The more I look the more confused I get!
At the moment I think these three are the most solid:
Junior
West End Rocker
Shakalakaboomboom
But worried that all three may have too much weight – Junior OR 134 to 153 in one race, WER 140 to 149 this season and Shakalakaboomboom 140 to 149 too.
Very unusual for a UK-trained horse to be rated so high and never have had a run at the Festival – which puts me off WER slightly
(Lord Gyllene managed it but he was bought over from NZ and campaigned exclusively at his local track in GN year – excellent form too)
(Hedgehunter the highest Irish-trained horse to win off OR 144 – although Oscar came within a few lengths off 145)
Also Junior may have shown his hand already – really need to see him run this season
And Shaka’s form last season was pretty unspectacular until Punchestown – but his last 3 runs have been pretty decent – yet the last two 8 year-olds to win had serious form in lots of bigger races with better horses than Shaka has faced so far
Can’t see any other solid contenders, so that leaves some longshots which may have further improvement in them (and in all cases defy a few stats) such as:
Chicago Grey (4 mile Novice champ)
Cooldine (ex-RSA champ)
Killyglen (last year’s form)
Organisedconfusion (Irish champ)
Planet Of Sound (2nd Hennessy, Gr1 winner)
Prince De Beauchene (Mullins factor)
Quiscover Fontaine (unexposed over a trip, Irish placed, Mullins)
Seabass (on a roll and GN-winning trainer)
Barring unseasonal weather and genuine soft going, if the winner is not in that 11 above then I’m going to take 11 months off before I look at the 2013 race!!
#335
February 2nd, 2012 14:07
Since 1990 the winner has carried between 3lbs lower than the average weight/OR and 6lbs more, odd one out was Comply Or Die.
#336
February 2nd, 2012 14:12
Kendal- ‘not having won a race under rules for over 730 days’ do you mean Nina?
Last yr, I was not keen on Nina and was gutted when Dougie Costello broke his arm, maybe Nina woulda got the ride anyway but I thought they had been building there season together and that was that for Character Building.
I blamed her for being far too far out the back with Character Building (again) On rewatching the race, I could see how she was completely brought to a stand still by fallen horses, true she could be accused of being too far back before that definately, but if she had her charge further forwards, she could just as likely been in the pile up. Bad luck, but I want my odds improved with some brave runners. Jockeys and horses, prefably near the front half.
#337
February 2nd, 2012 14:34
Pablo I agree- 11 months grazing
As said before, I think WER will get becher pounds slapped on too. Inconsistancy and the right kind of wet makes me worry, the jockey point you made is a major worry factor I hadn’t thought of… but he loves the course
But this is why before he is revealled as carrying 11-6 I am looking at the better lower ORs that could hold on or are back on song. But too low are just too unclassy now, are we sure?
Surely as last several yrs have shown from sheer volume, something with 11stone plus will stay and out class the field, even on soft/heavy?
#338
February 2nd, 2012 14:55
Found this from my local paper (Liverpool Daily Post) from 27th Jan 2012 regarding KillyGlen….
KILLYGLEN will bid for John Smith’s Grand National glory once again this year.
The Simon Crawford-trained gelding was going well before falling at the fourth from home in last year’s Aintree marathon. But he is being aimed at a return to Aintree on April 14 and will be among this year’s entries which close at 12pm on Tuesday before being revealed on Wednesday.
County Antrim trainer Crawford said: “We are hoping to head to Aintree again with Killyglen. On the one hand, I was delighted with the way he jumped the fences last year but on the other, it was obviously a little disappointing because he was going so well before he fell and the John Smith’s Grand National is such a hard race to win.
“I hope that the experience will serve him well and, if we can get him back there in the same kind of form with the same conditions, I would be hopeful that he can run a big race again. He’s a 10-year-old now but he has been lightly-raced throughout his career.
“We will look to give him one more run before the John Smith’s Grand National, probably at the start of March. Doncaster suits him well, so the Grimthorpe Chase is a possibility again. He will also be entered in the Premier Chase at Kelso, where we could meet Ballabriggs, and he will be given an entry for Leopardstown (March 4).”
Read More http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/2012/01/27/killyglen-and-alfa-beat-gearing-up-for-bid-at-glory-in-the-john-smith-s-grand-national-at-aintree-100252-30208573/#ixzz1lET7NUgd
#339
February 2nd, 2012 15:12
Anyone any views on Prince de Beauchene.Noticed he has run twice in April and both times been victorious. He won the race Dont Push It won the year before his victory.Now trained by Willie Mullins for the Wylies. Any news on whether he is being aimed at the race. Watched his victory at Aintree back and he does seem to jump quite well.
#340
February 2nd, 2012 15:19
Hi All
As always some amazing views, opinions, stats , trends and so forth.
Yesterday I just gave you the info I had, and I know this will sound a bit soap opera but a fiance of a Mannion works in Ted W’s yard, and am sorry I hadnt mentioned Seabass when I was first told (which was before his win in Dec but I didnt rejoin the thread till Jan…call me Mr Predictable!)but I did mark your cards before Saturday!!
I also gave you my worries re the beast. I suggest its price is already coming in as the whisper is out across the water.
Treacle also and got in at 100/1 this morn.
Hold On Julio am miffed with Alan K. He was adamant 2013 would be the year. Same with Organisedcon. If you check back stories after his Irish GN win they said he was too young at 7 for Aintree 2012 so I dismissed from thoughts although as an IGN winner you couldnt have got a pretty price a/p.
I do give creedence to stats and trends…although I know the thread will agree the winners have bust some wide open last 3 years or so. My general thought on this year is the days since last run stat might get bust with it being such a late GN and also number of prep runs (but hopefully inc a hurdles spin!) will keep coming down in a longer term trend.
Have now digested the entries and (trends/stats aside) here are some that have caught my eye.
#341
February 2nd, 2012 15:22
Oh bugga the site is doing the ‘reject’ thing!!
Hi All
As always some great views, opinions, stats , trends and so forth.
Yesterday I just gave you the info I had, and I know this will sound a bit soap opera but a fiance of a Mannion works in Ted W’s yard, and I apologiseI hadnt mentioned Seabass when I was first told (which was before his win in Dec but I didnt rejoin the thread till Jan…call me Mr Predictable!)but I did mark your cards before Saturday!!
I also gave you my worries/concerns/down side re the beast. I suggest its price is already coming in as the whisper is out across the water.
Treacle also and got in at 100/1 this morn.
Hold On Julio am miffed with Alan K. He was adamant 2013 would be the year. Same with Organisedcon. If you check back stories after his Irish GN win they said he was too young at 7 for Aintree 2012 so I dismissed from thoughts although as an IGN winner you couldnt have got a pretty price a/p.
I do give creedence to stats and trends…although I know the thread will agree the winners have bust some wide open last 3 years or so. My general thought on this year is the days since last run stat might get bust with it being such a late GN and also number of prep runs (but hopefully inc a hurdles spin!) will keep coming down in a longer term trend.
Have now digested the entries and (trends/stats aside) here are some that have caught my eye.
#342
February 2nd, 2012 15:26
Is this working? Just done a long post and site hasnt shown it….grrrr!!
#343
February 2nd, 2012 15:28
Luckily I back paged so have cut n paste n kept and will come back later else the site will slap my wrist for ‘repetition’ (Am I on Just A Minute then…??).
Its not worth holding your breath for mind…;)
#344
February 2nd, 2012 15:36
If that doesn’t work Bovril- maybe post on a different thread and give a pointer to it here?
also Admin asked us to report such problems on the technical problems thread, which will hopefully result in this major software update happening sooner rather than later.
#345
February 2nd, 2012 15:58
Actually I’ll do the second bit so my later post will only make sense if you think of it as before this!!
Horses from the rest of the runners that have caught my eye:
Blazing Tempo: I think this could be the Willie M steamer. Won the Galway Plate with ease which was on going like Aintrees these days but has won in heavy and was a decent 4th (only beat 4 l) to Alpha Beat in Kerry National.
Roulez Cool: The Waley-Cohens are no mugs at all and wouldnt turn up for a day out. Yes it may be a knee jerk entry as Oscar has got a leg but I think we need to mind it. French horse (a la LongRun)and I suggest we keep watch…
Giles Cross: A real old fashioned stays for ever chaser. Will get in off a low weight and if a bit of rain (please…just for once…)then this one will still be going when most of the rest have been weighted down or given up the ghost…
State Of Play: Have given up dissing the trainer for not giving this fella preps etc. I wouldnt be in the least surprised if it rocked up on the day and finished in top 6!
Burton Port: Would want to see a run but it is a class horse and as weight hasnt been an issue last few years I am intrigued by it having an entry although owner (Trevor H.) likes to be mob handed.
Mon Mome: I just think the old boy will be given a nice weight and could run a place on strength of Chelt run. He did PU his run before his GN win. Think Venitia is looking for a hurdles spin as final prep.
On His Own: All he could do was win last Thurs. Wont be dismissing just yet.
Backstage: Any horse lugging 12 st round heavy Irish P2P tracks and winning pulling a cart 5 times on the bounce just has to catch your eye… Terrible run last year (hated ground and Paul C rubbish ‘lets hold him up miles behind’ typical non-ride) but I wont bin him unless comes up good ground.
Adding these to Junior and Killyglen (my one from the race last year) and the two Irish whisper horses(Seabass and Treacle) and th eone I didnt expect to show(Hold On Julio) then that will do….but Always Right and Organisedcon are pecking away at the back of my mind too…arghhhhhh!!!:)
#346
February 2nd, 2012 16:00
Cheers KJ
Its just done it again to me 2nd part of my long ‘thoughts on entries’ post sob sob!!
#347
February 2nd, 2012 16:01
And they say size shouldn’t matter!!!!
#348
February 2nd, 2012 16:20
Sadlers- I certainly think Prince is alright, purple rain and all that
no, seriously I am not as keen as others yet but I am interested.
I liked the last run because it was in a bigger field and he dealt with it well and with top weight it was a good enough first run. He does like to pop over fences rather than stand off and doesn’t seem to have a real finish. But he is a plugger.
I can’t remember the aintree run well and can’t see it on atheraces. But like then, he will be under 11stone which is a plus. Maybe further the better with him…. Is he related to Miko?
#349
February 2nd, 2012 16:24
Trying a smaller post after also experiencing a ‘failure to launch!’
Sadlers- I certainly think Prince is alright, purple rain and all that
no, seriously I am not as keen as others yet but I am interested.
I liked the last run because it was in a bigger field and he dealt with it well and with top weight it was a good enough first run. He will get under 11stone and maybe further the better with him…. Is he related to Miko?
#350
February 2nd, 2012 16:30
Hi Bovril/all,
As KJ says if you could add any problems you are experiencing to the dedicated problems thread that would be most helpful. I am trying to get somewhere with this issue but I am not having much luck at the moment. All I can suggest for now is to make sure you save your posts before entering and make sure you have regularly cleared your internet cache as this can sometimes clog up your system in circumstances such as this. Possibly also try using a different internet provider may help i.e. internet explorer if you usually use firefox etc.
I will keep you updated
Thanks
Darren
#351
February 2nd, 2012 16:30
Mike N
February 2nd, 2012 11:24
Ballabriggs – high in weights
On His Own – inexperienced over fences
Cappa Bleu – inexperienced over fences
Synchronised – high in weights
Always Right – may go to Ayr
Planet Of Sound – high in weights
Interesting that you’ve changed your opinion on Always Right now from is going to Ayr and mocking people for selecting him, maybe just maybe your not the “Grand National Oracle” although we will see when you put your top 6 down. lol.
Love the banter, I’ve always believed that if your gonna have an opinion make sure its a strong one, and theres certainly a few on here.
Keep up the good work everyone
#352
February 2nd, 2012 16:48
Some really interesting early opinions on here alot being made about horses who you would’nt give a second glance to.
I can only see 5 horses who would concern me, BALLABRIGGS, PLANET OF SOUND, HOLD ON JULIO, WEST END ROCKER and NEPTUNES COLLONGES (if he takes to the fences).
I have to say this, but i think The Niche has a proper chance off any weight under 10st 5lbs.
i can’t rate anything that has been injured in the last 18 months because this race will find out any chink in the armour.
#353
February 2nd, 2012 16:57
Hi Graham.
Great result at Clonmel with the midnight club being beeten as I’m sure Phil will give Niche a weight in proportion to that horse. Looking good for a nice weight.
#354
February 2nd, 2012 17:32
Hi all,
It seems that the comments in question are being filtered into a seperate spam area so I will try and make sure they get moved to the right place from now on. Please do remember though that I can’t access the site all the time so there may be some delay in moving these comments.
Also, if this doesn’t cover all the examples I will contact the people concerned and see if I can post from this side.
Darren
#355
February 2nd, 2012 18:01
Perfect from The Midnight Club – outpaced over 2m4f as expected but running satisfactorily apart from that. Like Mike says, should hopefully see a drop in OR. I was surprised to see him go off odds-on over that trip to be honest.
As for Cooldine, i too have backed him at big prices (£2!) however I think he is gone at the game unfortuantely.
#356
February 2nd, 2012 18:28
Agreed. The Midnight Club was entitled to get outpaced. However, there were the odd one or two sketchy leaps, which would concern. As for Cooldine, that looked like schooling in public for much of it. He jumped beautfully today. The fact he has left the O’Leary’s ownership suggests he’s going for the National.
#357
February 2nd, 2012 18:34
The Midnight Club did indeed race like a stayer but there were one or two sketchy jumps mid race. That must be a concern.
As for Cooldine – it looked like a schooling session for much of the race. I liked the way he jumped today. The fact he is no longer a Violet O’Leary horse suggests he is definitely set for the National.
Do we really believe these two Mullins giants couldn’t beat a 123 rated handicapper if they were tuned to the minute? Not having it.
#358
February 2nd, 2012 18:34
Any one else having trouble posting?
#359
February 2nd, 2012 18:36
Cooldine schooled today. Has left O’Leary’s ownership so looks set for Aintree now.
There is no way these two Mullins giants could be ebeate by a 123 handicapper if they were fully tuned up.
#360
February 2nd, 2012 19:06
On the positive side for Cooldine:
Jockey put up 2lb overweight and the horse needs better ground – and it was a poxy £10k 5-horse, 2m 4f conditions chase on heavy ground at a lesser, right-handed track – about as far away from the GN as you can imagine – chance to get him a bit fitter is all
Although surely he has to show much much more after weights out
#361
February 2nd, 2012 19:57
Cooldine is a beautiful jumper. I think he’ll get round and that’s half the battle I suppose.
#362
February 2nd, 2012 20:16
Ewok/All – My reading of todays GN race is that Cooldine, was just schooled around, no questions were asked of him. He jumped, travelled and didn’t finish too far behind Midnight Club, who was niggled along albeit far too short a distance for him. I thought they both had a good run.
#363
February 2nd, 2012 20:31
As much as I dislike them as a firm I do respect Ladbrokes’ odds compilers. The fact that Ladbrokes are currently offering both Killyglen & The Midnight Club at longer prices than Betfair doesn’t bode well for either.
#364
February 2nd, 2012 20:31
Hi All
As always some great views, opinions, stats , trends and so forth.
Yesterday I just gave you the info I had, and I know this will sound a bit soap opera but a fiance of a family member works in Ted W’s yard, and I apologise I hadnt mentioned Seabass when I was first told (which was before his win in Dec but I didnt rejoin the thread till Jan…call me Mr Predictable!)but I did mark your cards before Saturday!!
I also gave you my worries/concerns/down side re the beast. I suggest its price is already coming in as the whisper is out across the water.
Treacle also and got in at 100/1 this morn.
Hold On Julio am miffed with Alan K. He was adamant 2013 would be the year. Same with Organisedcon. If you check back stories after his Irish GN win they said he was too young at 7 for Aintree 2012 so I dismissed from thoughts although as an IGN winner you couldnt have got a pretty price a/p.
I do give creedence to stats and trends…although I know the thread will agree the winners have bust some wide open last 3 years or so. My general thought on this year is the days since last run stat might get bust with it being such a late GN and also number of prep runs (but hopefully inc a hurdles spin!) will keep coming down in a longer term trend.
Have now digested the entries and (trends/stats aside) here are some that have caught my eye.
#365
February 2nd, 2012 20:49
Unfortunately, the Betfair market is very weak at this stage. Eg, I have laid several horses including Niche market & rebacked them with bookmakers at better prices. Historically doesn’t tend to improve much until end Feb/ early March.
#366
February 2nd, 2012 20:53
Ah it did take the posts then!
Graham if we read back to last few years nobody gave more than a glance to Mon Mome, Dont Push It and Ballabriggs (even tho he was fav. when entries published last year)….
Of those 3 Mon Mome had struggled round the year before in 10th and the other 2 didnt meet many stats….
Yes there are about 25-30 of the entries we could bin at the moment but still leaves 50 with some merits…and a second third and fouth glance…
#367
February 2nd, 2012 21:09
WIlly What, #315
you are right as far as In Compliance goes…apologies there…I missed his Gd1 3rd, but Shakervilz place came in a hurdle and that does not count
#368
February 2nd, 2012 22:21
We’re starting to get busy, will catch up later with everyones post. Saw a racing post newspaper and front page is very interesting.
{Aintree managing director JULIAN THICK said the sharp fall in the number of horses being aimed at the John Smith’s Grand National is part of the natural evolution of the race and described the entries revealed yesterday as [top quality].
Since 2008, when 150 names were unveiled for the world’s most famous steeplechase, entries have shown a steep downward trend and this year’s total of 82 is 20 less than 12 months ago. It is the lowest figure since 1996, when the same number of entries were made and only 27 went to post.
Irish trainers are responsible for 31 of this year’s 82 entries and Willie Mullins, who won with HEDGEHUNTER in 2005, has the strongest hand numerically with 12 possibles. In contrast Paul Nicholls, who has yet to win the race has made just 2 entries – NEPTUNE COLLONGES & NICHE MARKET
. Last year he had 10.
Tighter entry rules are in place for the National following the review of last year’s controversial running, but both Aintree and the trainers involved put the fall down to the high class of horses now targeted at the race.
“The Grand National is a higher-quality race nowadays and trainers are far more selective about the horses they enter,” Thick said. “The race has been evolving and changing in recent years and, while the number of entries is down on last year, we believe this is a testament to the status of the race.”
Thick is confident the National can recover from last year’s controversy surrounding 2 equine deaths, winning jockey Jason Maguire use of the whip and the sight of horses being doused with water soon after crossing the line.
“The increasing quality of the runners we attract to the GN means lower rated horses no longer have any prospect of a run. That’s why the number has fallen in recent years,” Thick said.
“The list of horses this year reinforces that fact. It is a TOP QUALITY entry, with terrifio strength in depth, and we can look forward to a stunning renewal on April 14.”
Donald |McCain who has Ballabriggs, Weird Al & Wymott, says “Everbody targets the race with good horses these days and you’ve got to be rated at least 135 to have a realistic chance of getting in.” He concluded with “There is little point putting in horses lower than 135.”
Nigel Twiston Davies who represented by Cresent Island, Hello Bud, Little Josh & Viking Blond says “You have to be rated 140 at least to get in. The lower entry has nothing to do with the adverse publicity around last year’s race. It’s all about people realising some horses have no chance of getting in. NTD put it soley down to better prize money.
Tim Vaughan argeed with NTD hoping that 2 out of his 4 gets in. Our Island, Postmaster, Stewart’s House & Tartak.”
#369
February 2nd, 2012 22:24
Just post this chart with the article.
Entries made this at this stage between 2000 to 2012.
2000 105
2001 133
2002 144
2003 149
2004 122
2005 152
2006 148
2007 119
2008 150
2009 120
2010 112
2011 102
2012 82
#370
February 2nd, 2012 23:01
having had a quick look I came up with a shortlist of synchronised, neptune collonges and west end rocker. synchronised is used to carrying big weights over distances, is guaranteed to stay and prior to last run would have been looked to be mapped out for the national with a couple of hurdle spins. there were lots other in there and so i had to be extremely ruthless with my culling but i did have an outsider left. roberto goldback – just below top class novice, campaigned over shorter but then stepped up the back end of last season and may (i say may!) have won the guinness gold cup grade 1 last year. is there anything in the breeding to suggest this one might stay? i only throw it out there because of the paucity of decent odds on anything i fancy. 150/1 on betfair!
#371
February 2nd, 2012 23:03
anyone know if there is anything in the pedigree of roberto goldback to suggest he might stay?
#372
February 2nd, 2012 23:57
anyone able to comment on roberto goldback’s stamina potential? He appeared on a very ruthless and somewhat subjective shortlist for me.
#373
February 3rd, 2012 00:05
i think west end rocker appears a pretty good 20/1 ew bet to me at the moment. fits all the trends and i think people are “trying” to find holes in him. true, the becher effect might give him additional weight but if pushed now pre-weights he would be my favourite.
#374
February 3rd, 2012 00:27
WER
Time a Becher Chase winner won a Grand National – when was the last one?? Its also time the handicapper gave the Becher Chase winners half a chance in the GN – after all WER had his OR go up from OR137 to OR149 (+12)for winning, surely enougth is enougth!! Sychronised running may help keep WER weight down (and many others).
#375
February 3rd, 2012 01:05
The last two Becher Chase winners to win the big one were dear old Amberleigh House and Silver Birch….so to be fair its not a bad trial compared to many others!
Black Apalachi was only denied by one from making it 3 winners since 2000
#376
February 3rd, 2012 03:14
YCroatia my apologies you are correct regarding Shakervilz must have had my blurry glasses on LOL
#377
February 3rd, 2012 08:54
Hi Ycroatia/ systemsman.
Amberleigh hse,silver Birch, Black apalachi(2nd) all excelled in the GN in subsequent years to winning the Becher to get H/cap mark back down. I remember Paul Nichols stating on Channel 4 that he had been nieve with Mr Pointment after it recieved 11-11 in national (rise of 9lbs OR) for his victory that year which is why I was so surprised that he tried to win it again with the Niche this year!
I think WER is a ridiculously low price after winning this ‘Kiss of Death’ race!!!
#378
February 3rd, 2012 09:01
Sorry
NAIVE !!!
#379
February 3rd, 2012 11:28
Thing about WER is that OR149 is not a negative, recent winners have been around this sort of mark. Mr Pointment was high in the handicap before his Becher win so after it went up again it was never going to win a GN.
Alan King was going to run WER again after the Becher but is protecting his current mark.
His chance has to be taken seriously.
#380
February 3rd, 2012 11:31
I’ve watched yesterday’s Clonmel race a few times now.
My thoughts largely reamin unaltered in terms of The Midnight Club making too many silly, niggling little errors that will probably cost him again.
Cooldine’s jumping impressed me but my concern today is that he came within less than a length of The Midnight Club looking the stronger but still managed to finish four lengths behind at the end. What you can’t see is how much he was asked by Mullins because they both disappear from camera. He’s certainly not being rousted when the line comes.
#381
February 3rd, 2012 11:38
Billymag re Always Right there was a definite view a few months back by the owner that he was more likely to go to Ayr. As I have not read any updates since then that may still be the case. And i have never said i am the Grand National Oracle. cheers.
#382
February 3rd, 2012 11:42
I recall the owner of WER not being utterly convinced by sending his charge back for the GN straight after his win in the Beecher. I assume he is definitely going for it now but the owner and indeed the trainer do not seem completely enamored with the race.
#383
February 3rd, 2012 11:46
Hi Mike N.
I agree an OR of 149 is not a problem for a classy enough horse. My issue is the 12lbs Hike before the weights come out and the value it now represents. I had a small interest in WER in last years GN when running Off OR141 at 130-1 on Betfair. I also backed it to win the Becher as I thought it was the best handicapped. I don’t know whether connections have been clever and hidden its true potential before now, but winning that race has certainly impaired its chances of winning this year from a handicapping point of view.
#384
February 3rd, 2012 12:02
Hi MC
You also have to remember that OR137 isnt necessarily going to get a horse into the GN this year, OR140 seems to be what the trainers are saying that will more likely to get in. In which case WER has now got into the race for sure.
Ideally the jockey shouldve taken it a bit easy after the last in the Becher. I think his love for Aintree fences will negate the weight rise as we know half the field are not going to act round there.
#385
February 3rd, 2012 13:54
ALWAYS WAINING doesn’t seem to have got a mention. Form over the fences in chronological order reads as 4,F,1,6,1,4. Would have run in the race last year if he got in but he missed the cut and won the Topham instead. Rated 140 this year so should get in towards the bottom of the weights. Given his love for good ground and the course and the fact that he would be one of the most certain runners, 40/1 looks generous. His form beyond 3m gives the impression that he’s a non-stayer but I think they may be other excuses for at least some of those runs – he hates anything worse than good/soft so you can put a line through a few. Has he any chance of staying the trip?
#386
February 3rd, 2012 13:59
Everyone,
We have now had the software update so please let me know if that solves the ongoing problems. I’d be grateful if there are any further issues that they could be highlighted on the problem thread.
Thanks
Darren
#387
February 3rd, 2012 14:08
I cant see Always Waining staying to be honest.
I think the last time the entry was this low, there were only 27 runners on race day. Given that this could happen again (probably unlikely, i iknow), are we aiming a bit high when guessing the no. 40 horse’s OR? Maybe those rated in the mid 130′s have a squeak of getting in this year.
#388
February 3rd, 2012 15:24
With natural wastage i.e. injury, not qualified & other engagements I firmly believe Any Currency will get his run even off his lowly mark.
#389
February 3rd, 2012 15:25
I also can’t see Always Waining staying the trip. He has raced 7 times over 3m2f+ as follows:
26f HEAVY
weakend near finish, very tired (btn 55l)
30f GOOD
struggling after 17th, weakened 4 out, well behind when pulled up 3 out
34f SOFT
held up in touch, weakened 20th, tailed off when pulled up before last
30f SOFT
effort and hit 17th, soon weakened, tailed off when pulled up before 2 out
33f GOOD
pushed along 15th, no chance when stumbled 4 out, pulled up before next
27f GS
ridden and weakened 16th (69 lengths)
27f SOFT
staying on when blundered 3 out, never in contention after (11 lengths)
So, on only one of those runs was he making any sort of progress at the finished. 3 of those runs were on good or good to soft – PU, PU, 69l. Despite his brilliant course form, I will definitely be giving him the swerve
#390
February 3rd, 2012 15:27
Having detached myself from the race slighty so I could scan it and form an opinion, I’m more confused than I’ve ever been before. I shall, however, have a small ew on Fair Along [even thoguh I don't even want him to run in it] because he’s been part of my racing life for so long and always surprises me. Also Neptune Collonges, although he’s a small horse to carry so much weight. Going for the ‘tinies’ this year as opposed to the ‘can’t jump’ brigade. Also The Niche, because he’s the opposite; a fine big horse with less weight than before. As for the rest, I need to start looking at them properly. At least there aren’t so many to look at this year!
#391
February 3rd, 2012 15:41
#313 Gallilieo you’re welcome
KJ a crazy comedy of errors that we all got into because of the attitude and digs that had been being posted – we know only too well by whom. All good my bloggin’ mate
#392
February 3rd, 2012 15:50
Does anyone know off their top of their head how far back the ‘top 3 in one of last 3 races’ stat goes?
#393
February 3rd, 2012 15:56
Maureen, half the field is 25-1 or less and yet theres alot to like at generous prices. I can hardly see the point in backing anything at the moment, before weights atleast. I suppose half the field will be 10-1 by then tho!
now that would be magic!… I’ll give him some more crumbs then.
Had a crumb on Mon Mome the other day probably should’ve waited til he goes out to 100s again
Niche before the 33s go is looking a good idea for e/w fans, even if he gets some becher extras, I can only see him coming into 20s again. Clawed me some moneyback placing last yr and I can see it again. I do hope he has a safe course of action so we get to see a true result. Same goes for old SOP.
Its hard to say who is the best really long shot, but there are a few 40/ 50-1 shots I can see placing and a few 25s and under I can’t. A difficult year again.
#394
February 3rd, 2012 15:59
As we look intoi the GN 2012 it’s ver clear that each of us is going to have to take make a call on some key points and dilemma’s NO right or wrong just your OWN opinion.
A few for me…
WER performing on good ground DOES concern me a bit
SYNCHRO being top weight DOESN’T unduly concern me – marathon chasing class act who has ofet carried top/near top weight to victory and compression will take much of sting out of his OR rise. Lexus win on good ground excites me. I really hope he runs…
JUNIOR like him very much but no runs thus far REALLY DOES concern me
CALGARY BAY supreme last win and late masterful surge in doing so sees me rate him as a REAL contender now even with OR rise BIG BIG powerfful horse
#395
February 3rd, 2012 16:00
speedyseagull
February 3rd, 2012 15:50
Does anyone know off their top of their head how far back the ‘top 3 in one of last 3 races’ stat goes?
—————–
Just checked. This goes as far back as RP records allow. So this trend is valid for at least as far back as Little Polveir in 1989, and maybe more. Also it is valid for 2 unlucky horses over past few years that maybe should have won – McKelvey and Clan Royal
#396
February 3rd, 2012 16:03
Showlad-
Indeed, think a red mist descended that day 
got rather confused after that, definately a Deep Purple moment! Smoke on the water…..
…you had me worried there
So glad you are back
#397
February 3rd, 2012 16:13
Glad to be here
Not sure about the ‘red mist’ but turbulence and rocking of boat clearly came from one bad weather source lol.
All good
GN 2012 SO exciting MOST exciting in many a year I feel. Not worried re low entries some great horses entered and weights day is totally relished
#398
February 3rd, 2012 16:14
Darren/Admin if it is down to pennies could you get your software team to enquire how much the edit tools would be to add to the posting tools (well solitary tool of ‘submit’ just now lol) – maybe we could all chip in?
Would be great to have this option as on many sites nowadays
#399
February 3rd, 2012 16:15
Purple Haze?
Asolutely agree about Calgary Bay. As you say powerfful! I really like him.
It was funny how at the start of that last race, the horse seemed to me to be saying ‘but I just won a big race! you want me to go again!’ And boy did he go again! Glad they are giving him a rest.
There is alot to like about the 20/25-1 group alot of unknowns and inexperience too. I think I need to take a further look at Hold on Julio.
#400
February 3rd, 2012 16:31
Hello
#401
February 3rd, 2012 16:38
Darren and team, thanks for the update
…hope that ‘Hello’ doesn’t mean what I think it mean?!
Just been looking at the becher treatment area, well just BA and Vic so far. I thought they were treated hard at the time, but considering WER has already gone +12 for that win, well…
BA went from OR138 to OR 146 for his becher win +8
Then given GNOR 153 +7 so in total +15
Vic went from OR 148 to OR 154 for becher win +6 and no increase for GN.
As for Julio, not much to look at is there, 3 chases 3 wins! I did like his last run and I have a soft spot for Be my natives.
#402
February 3rd, 2012 16:40
Hello 7T
KJ – yes agreed – talk is talk..will he get 36f etc etc..but in his last race that masterful effortless accelaration into 5th gear and past the others spoke of LOTS and LOTS left in the tank at 24f – another 12f who knows – but he has gone way way up in my estimation and made me stand up and take notice
#403
February 3rd, 2012 16:45
Don’t know ’bout the rest of you but feeling very happy with my shortlist at this point which will be fully posted up and reasoned when Stage 2 of the vote opens a week Tues at the unveling of the weights on 14 Feb
#404
February 3rd, 2012 16:49
Showlad – I haven’t got a shortlist yet because don’t really fancy any of them!!
#405
February 3rd, 2012 16:51
I have been through a Road to Damascus style change to the way I think.
The vision that came to me was wearing pink sleeves and a silly light coloured hat and I said be away with you jockey of Shakervilz for your steed has not even yet qualified and more to the point I do not hold it in high regard.
And He said unto me ‘neither do I, he’s fecking useless, which is why I do not wear the hat of darkness but the hat of light’ then there was a little spell of incoherent wooing and whatnot and finally he said ‘Here is my steed, resplendent and fine, he will be your winner, his name is Cooldine’. And with that I awoke, had some All Bran – keeps you regular – and parted with another £20 on the big fellow.
#406
February 3rd, 2012 16:53
Lol 7T
#407
February 3rd, 2012 16:56
Seriously though when did he change ownership? I hope those colours erradicate the memory of last year’s race, I really do. It would be fitting.
#408
February 3rd, 2012 20:27
Minnehoma
Right, just for the Craic -
Will use those under 100/1 with Betfair at the moment and apply 4 (20/20) 1 yr before stats (leaving out Lord G.) and 3 (20/20) 31st Dec stats.
Minnehoma is it possible for you to tell us which horses entered for Grand National weren’t on the bet fair list you originally used so i can see if any more qualify,thank you.
#409
February 3rd, 2012 22:39
Those who have taken the plunge on Cooldine may get a clue as to his ability to stay the trip when his full brother Fists Of Fury lines up in the NH Chase a month before.
#410
February 3rd, 2012 22:44
Some initial thoughts – horses as per Thaimark’s list of runners in OR order. Very much a work in progress.
(part 1)
1 168 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9
Plenty of form in the right kind of competitive handicap chases off big weights, which is encouraging. However, I am not convinced he will enjoy the likely fast ground (if his Leopardstown win was on genuinely good ground, why was it 37.5 seconds below standard? His only run on faster ground than that was his disappointing run in the Irish National). His last winning OR was 18lb lower than his current mark, which is now within 7lb of three-time Gold Cup winner Best Mate at his peak. He is going to need that compression of the weights…
2 164 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9
Yet to place in a chase with more than 7 runners and beaten out of sight in his two attempts in larger fields (2010 Hennessy, 2011 Gold Cup); no chance at Aintree.
3 163 MIDNIGHT CHASE 10
Ticks most of the right boxes. Front-running style should suit the National. Has run well carrying big weights before. The compression of the weights means he should have a few pounds in hand of the handicapper, but would be vulnerable to something better-handicapped that enjoys the conditions of the race. A fine place prospect if he actually turns up, which is unlikely.
4 160 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11
Has a 10lb rise in the weights, more or less, to contend with, and something is going to beat him. Might not want it any softer than last year.
5 160 BURTON PORT (IRE) 8
Off the track for a long time and only one race out of novice company. Too inexperienced for the National.
6 159 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13
A 13yo rated 13lbs higher than his last winning mark is not going to win the National.
7 159 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 9
Has chosen to do his winning at the wrong time, resulting in him being another who needs to win off a substantially higher mark than he has managed so far. Could be open to improvement over the considerably longer distance, but on that I am not qualified to judge.
8 159 NEPTUNE COLLONGES(FR) 11
Interesting, another who ticks a good few of the right boxes, and could be argued to be well-handicapped. However, he appears to be on the downgrade and needs to run to the sort of level that saw him place in a couple of Gold Cups. He has had a few injuries and has been on the go at the top level for a very long time. Has not obviously excelled in high-class, long-distance handicaps to date; being on the small side, isn’t one who would obviously be good at giving weight to inferiors. On balance, respected but opposable.
9 159 PLANET OF SOUND 10
Feasibly-weighted. The trip is an unknown and I am not sure whether it will suit him or not. A slight worry that much of his best form is right-handed, but he evidently handles Newbury and on that basis the even more galloping National course ought not to inconvenience him. A few worries but has to make the shortlist.
10 158 ALFA BEAT (IRE) 8
He would probably need to run to a mark well into the 160s to win this. I doubt he is capable of it, particularly when viewing footage of him being taken off his feet and making mistakes in the 2011 Topham.
11 156 UNCLE JUNIOR (IRE) 11
Looks very harshly handicapped, based solely on a beating of a Garde Champetre who by all rights ought to be in decline by now. The rest of his form suggests he would struggle in a race of this competitiveness.
12 154 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8
Second-season novice, but some good competitive handicap form in there. Worrying that he has yet to win at 3 miles, but appeared to handle the trip well enough on his only attempt at it. One would want to see a bit more at something approaching the National distance between now and the race.
13 154 DEEP PURPLE 11
Has been rated rather higher than 154 in the past and appears to retain much of the ability, but most of his racing has been in small-field conditions chases and has never run in anything remotely like the size of field he will encounter at Aintree.
14 154 SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11
Likes the track. Rather like Papillon, plenty of good form in conditions chases at around 2m and a former Queen Mother Champion Chase runner. However, his form over regulation fences does not exactly suggest 4m4f will suit and I am unconvinced that cross-country racing provides an equivalent test of stamina. Opposable, but with a touch of wariness.
15 153 JUNIOR 9
Confidently opposed; very little in the way of meaningful chase experience and 19lb higher in the handicap than his last winning mark.
16 153 QUANTITATIVEEASING(IRE) 7
Unlikely stayer – faded quickly on his Irish National run and confidently opposed.
17 153 TARTAK (FR) 9
This has the look of an entry made in a desperate attempt to find something different for a horse who is not exactly threatening to win over the shorter trips he has done all his running over.
18 152 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10
Faded out of sight on his only two attempts at 3m+; no chance.
19 152 ROBERTO GOLDBACK(IRE) 10
Has only gone close in large fields in Navan beginners’ chases and would very much be taking a step into the unknown if he lines up.
20 150 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9
Another who is very short on experience in competitive handicap chases and easy to discount.
#411
February 3rd, 2012 23:57
Ready to post my dosage table on this year’s national.
Part one will be my usual explanation of dosage, mainly for those new comers or anyone who doesn’t understand dosage.
Part two will contain my sample, last year I went back the last 30 separate winners who DP was 8 or higher, this year I’m counting those who has a DP of 10 or higher.
Part three will be my list, now split into 9 different categories. Extremely Positive, Positive, Slightly Positive, Above Average, Averge, Below Average, Slightly Negative, Negative and Extremely Negative. Each category will have a previous winner for an example to help you gauge those in the category. For these winners I’ve only looked at post war winners.
#412
February 4th, 2012 00:01
Part One The explanation of Dosage.
If you go to the PEDIGREE ENQUIRE site and key in NICHE MARKET, careful of spelling and where necessary check parentage you will see a chart of his pedigree going back 5 generations. For dosage we only need to look at the first 4. You will also notice along the top just after his name DP=1-2-3-4-2 (12) DI= 0.60 CD= -0.33 but what does it mean and how do we get it?
The figures 1-2-3-4-2 are Niche Market’s dosage make-up figure and from left to right are called Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional, the other 3 figure are made up from these 5.
How do we get these 5 figures?
If we look at the first 15 sires of an animal we might see some letters in square brackets these correspond to the initial letter of the 5 make up numbers above.
So in Niche market’s case the 15 sires are:
1 Presenting (1st generation)
2 Mtoto (2nd generation)
3 Jurado (2nd generation)
4 Busted (3rd generation)
5 Persian Bold (3rd generation)
6 Alleged (3rd generation)
7 Le Prince (3rd generstion)
8 Crepello (4th generation)
9 Mincio (4th generation)
10 Bold Lad (4th generation)
11 Riverman (4th generation)
12 Hoist The Flag (4th generation)
13 L’Enjoleur (4th generation)
14 Prince Bio (4th generation)
15 Artist Son (4th generation)
The letters tell you which part of the make up figures get the points and the position in terms of which generation tells you how many to award.
1st Generation gets 16 points
2nd Generation gets 8 points
3rd Generation gets 4 points
4th Generation gets 2 points
If the are more than 1 letter for a sire then its split evenly between the two letters.
To show you what I mean let’s just work through Niche Market’s pedigree.
Busted is a 3rd generation so is awarded 4 points. His letter is S so 4 points to Solid.
Crepello is a 4th generation so is awarded 2 points. His letter is P so 2 points to Professional.
Riverman is a 4th generation so is awarded 2 points. His letters are I & C so that’s 1 point each to Intermediate & Classic.
Hoist The Flag is a 4th generation so is awarded 2 points. His letters are B & I so that’s 1 point each to Brilliant & Intermediate.
Prince Bio is a 4th generation so is awarded 2 points. His letter is C so that’s 2 points to Classic.
The other sires have no letters so score no points.
So looking at this we get
Brilliant 1
Intermediate 2
Classic 3
Solid 4
Professional 2
The figure after these first five is simply the product of these five. The higher the figure the more influence these special sires have. It will always be an even number between 0 and 64 and is called the Dosage Profile (DP)
The sixth figure is the Dosage Index (DI) and is got by adding up the speed side (Brilliant+Intermediate+50% of Classic) and adding up the stamina side (50% Classic+Solid+Professional) Then dividing the speed figure by the stamina figure.
0.60 shows more stamina than speed.
The last figure is Centre Of Distribution (CD)
Here on the speed side we double the Brilliant Points and add the Intermediate, while on the Stamina side we double the Professional points and add on the solid.
Then we subtract the stamina answer from the speed answer and finally divide the whole lot by the dosage profile. The answer will usually lie between +2.00 and -2.00
A negative number will show the animal breed to stay long distances, positive the opposite.
Both DI and CD are written to 2 decimal places unless the answer is inifinity which is caused generally by no points in DP and is ignored because it’s dosage weak.
#413
February 4th, 2012 01:00
I’m gradually working my way through the list of entries, and am now about halfway through. Looking at the Aintree press release posted up earlier, I do believe they have hired a spin-doctor. This may be the worst initial entry I can remember seeing, crammed full of horses barely out of the novice stage or in evident decline. Last year I had difficulty ruling anything out – this year I have found only a handful of serious propositions and a few where I am thinking “well…maybe…”. What has happened?
#414
February 4th, 2012 01:02
Showlad,
I will try to find out about the possibility of what you ask but I think we have discussed this before and at that time there was nothing we could do. I suspect as we are now completely up to date software wise that the only way to achieve what you are after would be to find a plugin to do the trick. This may be possible but unfortunately with a blog of this size plugins can cause more problems than they solve.
I don’t really understand why you can’t just edit your post in word and then cut and paste? Isn’t that a fairly straightforward option? Or am I misunderstanding your request?
#415
February 4th, 2012 01:12
Part two: My Sample, this takes in the dosage of past winners up to Gay Trip. Red Rum the only multiple winner is counted once. Horses with DP less than 10 are also shown for information purposes only.
1 Ballabriggs [1-1-2-4-2] DP 10 DI 0.43 CD -0.50
2 Don’t Push It [6-5-12-4-1] DP 28 DI 1.55 CD 0.39
- Mon Mome [1-1-2-0-0] DP 4 DI 3.00 CD 0.75
3 Comply Or Die [2-0-6-4-0] DP 12 DI 0.71 CD 0.00
4 Silver Birch [2-0-4-8-6] DP 20 DI 0.25 CD -0.80
5 Numbersixvalverde [2-0-0-6-2] DP 10 DI 0.25 CD -0.60
6 Hedgehunter [8-3-8-2-7] DP 28 DI 1.15 CD 0.11
7 Amberleigh House [5-1-8-2-4] DP 20 DI 1.00 CD 0.05
8 Monty’s Pass [3-4-6-0-7] DP 20 DI 1.00 CD -0.20
9 Bindaree [1-1-3-4-1] DP 10 DI 0.54 CD -0.30
- Red Marauder [5-0-1-0-0] DP 6 DI 11.00 CD 1,67
10 Papillon [0-1-4-1-6] DP 12 DI 0.33 CD -1.00
11 Bobbyjo [5-1-4-6-4] DP 20 DI 0.67 CD -0.15
12 Earth Summit [3-0-11-2-0] DP 16 DI 1.13 CD 0.25
13 Lord Gyllene [2-0-2-4-6] DP 14 DI 0.27 CD -0.86
14 Rough Quest [0-0-6-8-6] DP 20 DI 0.18 CD -1.00
- Royal Athlete [0-0-0-0-0] DP 0 DI INF CD INF
15 Miinnehoma [3-2-7-8-0] DP 20 DI 0.74 CD 0.00
16 Party Politics [3-2-1-12-0] DP 18 DI 0.44 CD -0.22
17 Seagram [2-0-2-12-10] DP 26 DI 0.13 CD -1.08
- Mr Frisk [1-4-3-0-0] DP 8 DI 4.33 CD 0.75
18 Little Polveir [3-4-3-0-2] DP 12 DI 2.43 CD 0.50
19 Rhyme N Reason [2-0-0-4-4] DP 10 DI 0.25 CD -0.80
20 Maori Venture [4-0-8-0-4] DP 16 DI 1.00 CD 0.00
21 West Tip [0-10-6-2-0] DP 18 CD 2.60 DI 0.44
22 Last Suspect [14-0-0-0-6] DP 20 DI 2.33 CD 0.80
23 Hallo Dandy [1-0-7-2-2] DP 12 DI 0.60 CD -0.33
- Corbiere [1-0-7-0-0] DP 8 DI 1.29 CD 0.25
24 Grittar [16-0-11-0-1] DP 28 DI 3.31 CD 1.07
25 Aldaniti [1-2-9-0-0] DP 12 DI 1.67 CD
- Ben Nevis [1-0-3-2-2] DP 8 DI 0.45 CD -0.50
26 Rubstic [2-2-4-0-4] DP 12 DI 1.00 CD -0.17
27 Red Rum [2-2-1-7-0] DP 12 DI 0.60 CD -0.08
28 Rag Trade [1-0-9-2-4] DP 16 DI 0.52 CD -0.50
- L’Escargot [0-0-2-0-2] DP 4 DI 0.33 CD -1.00
29 Well To Do [2-4-2-0-2] DP 10 DI 2.33 CD 0.40
- Specify [2-1-3-0-2] DP 8 DI 1.29 CD 0.13
30 Gay Trip [0-0-8-0-2] DP 10 DI 0.67 CD -0.40
PART THREE WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW!!
#416
February 4th, 2012 02:23
worth mentioning to anyone considering lumping on Cooldine that the Mullins took over ownership of the horse from Mrs O’Leary with a view to Patrick riding in the National…However, under the new rules, Paddy needs to ride 4 more chase winners or he won’t be qualified this time and I suspect Cooldine would run in the Topham instead…. 4 might not sound much between now and then, but he’s only ever won six chases in the last 5 years!
#417
February 4th, 2012 02:36
can i also just mention again that Uncle Junior is NOT rated 156…he’s rated 142…. the 156 is a X Country rating…it is not handicapped in the same way. He is entered in the Betfair GN Trail off 142 UK rating…. far more winable mark
#418
February 4th, 2012 02:52
Thanks. (I don’t think he’s got a snowball’s chance off 142, either).
#419
February 4th, 2012 03:15
Admin my lengthy post tonight must be in spam please re-post
#420
February 4th, 2012 10:34
Been busy last couple of days spent an hour last night and same this am. catching up on posts. Amazing amount of work some of you do for this blog, much appreciated. Read dosage post mind boggling !! Totally get it having read it, await with interest next post.
Post 385 The Stayer re Always Waining I have backed in both Topham’s and won a fair few quid on this horse so would love to be keen, but I read the owner saying last year when asked about the National that he doesn’t get home over 3m 2f so totally baffled with entry when he must stand an excellent chance again in the Topham or are they worried he would be handicapped out of it. Either way couldn’t have in GN.
#421
February 4th, 2012 10:47
Thanks for that RA about dosage, I have done previous explanations and they’ve probably been too techincal for some,so I’ve thought long and hard on how to try and explain it to the common person
The following dosage table league is a guide on how well based on dosage each horse should get the trip. I must stress that this is not a rating like you get in Racing Post or Timeform it is merely can they last the distance, but as Pablo has also said it’s also how they’ve been nurtured.
#422
February 4th, 2012 10:55
Before my table I just explain that they are divided first by their DI and CD values, then by if they have points in all 5 dosage make up figures, thats Brilliant, Intermediate , Classic , Solid and Professional these are known as points across the board, PATB, and Ben my tutor in how to use dosage in NH racing thinks these all rounders have a slight edge to those who are not. Finally by their DP value, the higher the DP value the more influence the special sires have and in theory that makes them more classier.
#423
February 4th, 2012 11:02
PART THREE: The dosage table
EXTREMELY POSITIVE
DI here have a value of 0.55 or below,
CD must also have a value of -0.58 or below
A previous winner who fitted these values was Silver Birch
1 Cresent Island [0-1-3-4-2] DP 10 DI 0.33 CD -0.70
1 Killyglen [0-1-3-4-2] DP 10 DI 0.33 CD -0.70
#424
February 4th, 2012 11:19
POSITIVE
2 conditions can be met here.
Condition 1 DI 0.55 or lower and CD -0.57 or higher.
Condition 2 DI 0.56 or higher and CD -0.58 or lower.
A previous winner who met one of these conditions was Ballabriggs (last year’s winner)
3 Ballabriggs [1-1-2-4-2] DP 10 [PATB] DI 0.43 CD -0.50
4 Northern Alliance [2-0-11-4-5] DP 22 DI 0.52 CD -0.45
4 The Package [2-0-11-4-5] DP 22 DI 0.52 CD -0.45
6 Uncle Junior [2-0-8-8-0] DP 18 DI 0.50 CD -0.22
7 Hold On Julio [0-0-8-4-2] DP 14 DI 0.40 CD -0.57
7 Stewarts House [1-1-4-8-0] DP 14 DI 0.40 CD -0.36
9 Abbeybraney [1-0-4-4-1] DP 10 DI 0.43 CD -0.40
#425
February 4th, 2012 11:23
Lsst time i read about Dosage on here was for the Hennessey Gold Cup. Carruthers wasnt favoured but won anyway. So i’ll give it a miss lol.
#426
February 4th, 2012 11:31
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
Here the value of the DI has to be from 0.56 to 1.00 while the value of the CD must be from -0.57 to -0.17.
A previous winner who met these values was Monty’s Pass.
10 Arbor Supreme [4-1-3-4-4] DP 16 [PATB] DI 0.68 CD -0.19
11 Niche Market [1-2-3-4-2] DP 12 [PATB] DI 0.60 CD -0.33
12 Swing Bill [1-1-4-2-2] DP 10 [PATB] DI 0.67 CD -0.30
13 Planet Of Sound [2-0-12-8-0] DP 22 DI 0.57 CD -0.18
14 State Of Play [2-0-11-2-5] DP 20 DI 0.60 CD -0.40
15 West End Rocker [0-2-5-1-2] DP 10 DI 0.82 CD -0.30
#427
February 4th, 2012 12:12
ABOVE AVERAGE
2 conditions again must be met to qualify for this category.
Condition 1 The DI has to be from 0.56 to 1.00 and the CD must be -0.16 or higher.
Condition 2 The DI must be 1.01 or higher and the CD must be from -0.57 to -0.17
A past winner who met one of these conditions was Amberleigh House.
16 Junior [5-1-18-7-1] DP 32 [PATB] DI 0.88 CD 0.06
17 Weird Al [5-1-6-8-2] DP 22 [PATB] DI 0.69 CD -0.05
18 Pearlysteps [4-1-8-2-5] DP 20 [PATB] DI 0.82 CD -0.15
19 In Compliance [3-1-6-4-2] DP 16 [PATB] DI 0.78 CD -0.06
19 Midnight Chase [3-1-7-4-1] DP 16 [PATB] DI 0.88 CD 0.06
19 Smoking Aces [3-1-6-4-2] DP 16 [PATB] DI 0.78 CD -0.06
19 Vic Venturi [2-1-8-4-1] DP 16 [PATB] DI 0.78 CD -0.06
23 Syncronised [5-1-24-8-0] DP 38 DI 0.90 CD 0.08
24 Wymott [4-0-13-4-3] DP 24 DI 0.78 CD -0.08
25 Alfa Beat [1-3-14-0-4] DP 22 DI 1.00 CD -0.14
25 Minella Theatre [6-0-9-7-0] DP 22 DI 0.91 CD 0.23
27 Massini’s Maguire [5-1-8-6-0] DP 20 DI 1.00 CD 0.25
27 Psycho [5-1-8-6-0] DP 20 DI 1.00 CD 0.25
29 King Fontaine [4-0-8-4-2] DP 18 DI 0.80 CD 0.00
29 Saddlers Storm [2-0-10-6-0] DP 18 DI 0.64 CD -0.11
31 Any Currency [3-1-8-4-0] DP 16 DI 1.00 CD 0.19
31 Seabass [3-0-9-4-0] DP 0.88 CD 0.13
33 Black Apalachi [2-0-8-4-0] DP 14 DI 0.75 CD 0.00
33 Midnight Haze [3-0-6-4-1] DP 14 DI 0.75 CD 0.00
33 Quiscover Fontaine [2-0-7-4-1] DP 14 DI 0.65 CD -0.14
33 Roulez Cool [1-0-11-2-0] DP 14 DI 0.87 CD 0.00
33 Sunnyhillboy [3-0-7-4-0] DP 14 DI 0.87 CD 0.14
38 Prince De Beauchene [2-0-6-4-0] DP 12 DI 0.71 CD 0.00
38 Quel Esprit [1-1-7-3-0] DP 12 DI 0.85 CD 0.00
40 Shakervilz [1-1-6-0-2] DP 10 DI 1.00 CD -0.10
#428
February 4th, 2012 12:21
AVERAGE
In this category the DI must be from 1.01 to 2.05 while at the same time the CD must be from -0.16 to 0.27
Our example who fell into this range is Hedgehunter
41 Apt Approach [1-3-14-1-1] DP 20 [PATB] DI 1.22 CD 0.10
42 Rare Bob [1-2-17-0-0] DP 20 DI 1.35 CD 0.20
43 Giles Cross [2-3-9-4-0] DP 18 DI 1.18 CD 0.17
#429
February 4th, 2012 12:49
BELOW AVERAGE
This categories has 2 conditions, either:
Condition 1 the DI must be from 1.01 to 2.05 and the CD must be 0.28 or higher.
Condition 2 the DI must be 2.06 or higher while the CD must be from -0.16 to 0.27
A previous winner who met one of these conditions was Don’t Push It
44 According To Pete [5-1-7-4-1] DP 18 [PATB] DI 1.12 CD 0.28
45 Deep Purple [5-1-7-2-1] DP 16 [PATB] DI 1.46 CD 0.44
46 Postmaster [3-2-23-0-0] DP 28 DI 1.43 CD 0.29
47 Blazing Tempo [7-1-6-6-0] DP 20 DI 1.22 CD 0.45
47 Burton Port [1-4-15-0-0] DP 20 DI 1.67 CD 0.30
49 Some Target [4-0-11-0-1] DP 16 DI 1.46 CD 0.38
50 Our Island [4-0-6-2-0] DP 12 DI 1.40 CD 0.50
50 Scotsirish [1-4-5-2-0] DP 12 DI 1.67 CD 0.33
50 Tatenen [3-1-7-1-0] DP 12 DI 1.67 CD 0.50
50 The Midnight Club [3-2-6-0-1] DP 12 DI 2.00 CD 0.50
50 Treacle [1-4-5-2-0] DP 12 DI 1.67 CD 0.33
55 Hello Bud [2-2-5-0-1] DP 10 DI 1.86 CD 0.40
55 Little Josh [3-0-7-0-0] DP 10 DI 1.86 CD 0.60
55 Tartak [2-0-8-0-0] DP 10 DI 1.50 CD 0.40
#430
February 4th, 2012 13:18
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
This will bring us to the range of the sample given. So the DI must have a value of 2.06 to 3.31 and the CD must have a value of 0.28 to 1.07
Just to remind you that Grittar is the one fits this category.
58 Always Waining [7-4-13-2-0] DP 26 DI 2.06 CD 0.62
58 Tharawaat [4-8-12-2-0] DP 26 DI 2.25 CD 0.54
60 Roberto Goldback [3-4-13-0-0] DP 20 DI 2.08 CD 0.50
61 Backstage [4-1-7-0-0] DP 12 DI 2.43 CD 0.75
#431
February 4th, 2012 13:23
NEGATIVE
This category has 2 conditions.
Condition 1 is DI 2.06 to 3.31 and CD 1.08 or higher or
Condition 2 is DI 3.32 or higher and CD 0.28 to 1.07
This takes us beyond the sample but Red Alligator is a prime example of this category.
62 Schindler’s Gold [8-4-4-2-0] DP 18 DI 3.50 CD 1.00
#432
February 4th, 2012 13:35
Someone asked what might get in, lowest OR, well the average in the last four GN’s has been number 74 I think.
Looking at early estimates on what the top OR, average OR and bottom OR might be. I reckon top 160, average will be about 145, bottom weight about 136 (with two or three running out the handicap which would be the first time since 2004). 21/21 winners have been in the top sixty (I think) in the weights, 27/27 carried up to 14lbs more than bottom weight. If all those trends stand the winner would be carrying between 142-150. Throwing in some more trends, age, strike rates, won a 20k+ chase, narrows it down to, using YCroatia’s list;
23 149 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 11 1
24 149 WEST END ROCKER 11 1
25 149 ACCORDING TO PETE 11 1
26 148 ROULEZ COOL 11 0
28 148 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 11 0
31 148 MASSINI’S MAGUIRE 11 0
32 147 RARE BOB 10 13
35 147 ALWAYS RIGHT 10 13
38 145 MON MOME 10 12
43 143 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 10 10
45 143 NORTHERN ALLIANCE 10 10
50 142 FAIR ALONG 10 9
#433
February 4th, 2012 14:01
Nearly done
This final Category is labelled EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.
The are 2 ways a horse can be labelled Extremely Negative first it can have a DI of 3.32 or above while having a CD of 1.08 or above, second it DP score can be 8 or less regardless of the value in DI and CD.
While I couldn’t find a horse who met the first way the second way known as DOSAGE WEAK [DW] I must remind you of Royal Athlete who was as weak as the get with no points.
63 Another Palm [1-0-5-0-2] DP 8 [DW] DI 0.78 CD -0.25
63 Cappa Bleu [0-1-7-0-0] DP 8 [DW] DI 1.29 CD 0.13
63 Chicago Grey [1-2-5-0-0] DP 8 [DW] 2.20 CD 0.50
63 Cooldine [0-0-5-3-0] DP 8 [DW] DI 0.45 CD -0.38
63 Hector’s Choice [0-3-1-2-2] DP 8 [DW] DI 0.78 CD -0.38
63 Le Beau Bai [1-0-4-3-0] DP 8 [DW] DI 0.60 CD -0.13
63 Neptune Equester [0-1-4-1-2] DP 8 [DW] DI 0.60 CD -0.50
63 On His Own [0-1-1-4-2] DP 8 [DW] DI 0.23 CD -0.88
63 Quantitativeeasing [3-2-1-2-0] DP 8 [DW] DI 2.20 CD 0.75
63 Shakalaboomboom [3-1-0-4-0] DP 8 [DW] DI 1.00 CD 0.38
63 Viking Blond [0-0-8-0-0] DP 8 [DW] DI 1.00 CD 0.00
74 Becauseicouldntsee [0-0-5-1-0] DP 6 [DW] DI 0.71 CD -0.17
74 Calgary Bay [1-0-4-1-0] DP 6 [DW] DI 1.00 CD 0.17
76 Always Right [1-1-0-2-0] DP 4 [DW] DI 1.00 CD 0.25
76 Ballyvesey [1-1-0-2-0] DP 4 [DW] DI 1.00 CD 0.25
76 Mon Mome [1-1-2-0-0] DP 4 [DW] DI 3.00 CD 0.75
76 Oranisedconfusion [0-0-0-4-0] DP 4 [DW] DI 0.00 CD -1.00
76 Qhilimar [1-0-1-0-2] DP 4 [DW] DI 0.60 CD -0.50
81 Fair Along [1-0-1-0-0] DP 2 [DW] 3.00 CD 1.00
81 Neptune Collonges [0-0-0-2-0] DP 2 [DW] DI 0.00 CD -1.00
#434
February 4th, 2012 14:02
Being rather vague here, cause I only vaguely remember reading somewhere in all these posts…..
Crisp! I think it was you ultimately
can you post a list of those that meet the old standard and the new higher one please. I think it interesting.
Did you make a list of left handed RPR qualifiers?
that fit the new higher figure of ??? sorry, I do like this stat as a guide, but haven’t taken notes, also I have no idea what/ where one would gain this information, so I am asking nicely
#435
February 4th, 2012 14:03
Mike N I’ve never claimed it has a pure rating system. The way I’ve used it is to first look at other trends then use dosage to sort out any you can’t separate under normal trends etc.
#436
February 4th, 2012 14:11
things here getting really interesting to read! i ususall pick a trends horse from reading this blog and all the great info from you guys and a “feeling” horse , this year however has a new added dimension for me in that im going on 14th of april earl of derby stand so excited !! tickets bought by my lovely girlfriend …. and heres the new dimension ……….. we have been racing a few times since we met and she is purely a “I like the name” punter on our racing days she has had 5 bets ……….. all 5 come in ???? on reading her this years list her words ” I like According to Pete”
keep up the epic work going on here and as im just out of hospital im really enjoying reading this daily .
#437
February 4th, 2012 14:33
Hope your keeping warm Dragonman!
Petes are likeable sorts, so I’d imagine his price will only go one way regardless. Like alot of horses this year, there is reason to like and reason to dismiss. Nothing is perfect. Feeling I might as well stick a pin in it, every other day….or better idea wait til week of race.
I found the posts I was talking about #317 and #319….apparently Thaimark already asked if anyone has the left handed RPR figures
so anyone anyone?
#438
February 4th, 2012 14:46
Great work ASM. Altho I’m having my concerns on dosage too. Last weeks skybet chase for example… Wasn’t Calgary Bay extremely neg on dosage but ended up winning quite comfortably?? Not sure what to make of it at all.
#439
February 4th, 2012 15:01
Just back from bookies Hills & Lads prices falling like the pile up in Foinavon’s year.
Synchronised & Junior roughly 12/1 fav.
Bovril’s whisper horses in Hills Seabass 40/1 the other day now 25/1 (can get 33/1 in Lads, just topped up), Hold On Julio now 3rd fav at 16/1 ?? and Treacle 40/1 now 25/1 what is happening this year,weights are not even out yet and we are close to a 10/1 fav.
#440
February 4th, 2012 15:16
crisp73
>>Someone asked what might get in, lowest OR, well the average in the last four GN’s has been number 74 I think.
I wonder if the requirement to qualify is going to change that? There are a few who need to get that sorted out soon and there cannot be many opportunities to do so. If the freezing weather continues there are going to be even less opportunities.
There must be a good chance that the race will be undersubscribed this year. Some serious rainfall in the week before the race and we could be looking at less than 30 starters (and perhaps 2-3 finishers).
#441
February 4th, 2012 15:37
Lol KJ “Petes are likeable sorts, so I’d imagine his price will only go one way regardless”.
Some would say I’m proof that this does not always hold!
#442
February 4th, 2012 15:38
I think everything will have a chance of getting in this year
If their owners really want it and they rate OR 120+ with a 4th or better over 24 furlongs or farther in a steeplechase under rules [PHEW, QUITE A MOUTHFUL 
].
Read in racing post earlier in week that the last time the initial entries was this low the number that went to post was 27.
So I think the number of final runners would be 30 [give or take a couple of runners].
#443
February 4th, 2012 15:42
or even no finishers ha haa.
I think they could all get in.
whats the fine print if that happens! race is void? moneyback?
Having said that I think there are enough mud lovers for them not all to falter. SBN would be nailed on
Oh the snow at wolverhampton!
we nearly had snow in GN the year I thought Snowy could do it,…. silly really, always bashed a few fences.
Prices for horses like Hold on Julio and Treacle aren’t exactly tempting.
#444
February 4th, 2012 16:28
For those of you that didn’t hear and want to go see it- In San Moritz, Switzerland they not only run horses in the snow, they ski behind/attached to them! I had no idea the swiss could be that fun,.. well I suppose it is skiing, bloomin dangerous spectacle!
#445
February 4th, 2012 16:40
I was checking my lottery tickets this morning (3 months backlog) and I had a winning ticket. So stuck some of it on a 40-1 shot for the national. might as well. free bet. lol
#446
February 4th, 2012 16:42
Good work Crisp. Happy to see WER appearing again.
#447
February 4th, 2012 17:32
SEABASS……………looking at his race history he has only ran 2 3m races out of 13,to go from 2.5miles to 4m 4f would be a big ask,the 2013GN might be the better option………..
#448
February 4th, 2012 17:34
Perhaps all the entries this year are horses that the owners/trainers intend to run if possible [unlike previous years], although I can’t believe that Willie Mullins would run Blazing Tempo. But maybe it is worth me having a bet on Smoking Aces after all! I still don’t understand this dosage business, especially as Mon Mome is ‘extremely weak’.dragonman; I wonder if you will be our only representative ‘on track’ along with graham?
#449
February 4th, 2012 17:40
Smoking Aces wont get in on OR123. He would have to cane the opposition tomorrow in the GN trial to get in.
#450
February 4th, 2012 17:56
Just read that Synchronised may not run in Ireland as it took him a while tp get oevr the Lexus. Would imagine that means that, if he runs in the Gold Cup even for place money there would be a doubt over him running in the National as well. Does he usually have a long gap between races?
#451
February 4th, 2012 18:06
Maureen I put the examples in to remind people that although the dosage could be against you it is still only one trend and shouldn’t be judged to be an absolute, one way or the other.
#452
February 4th, 2012 18:09
The dosage is set by birth, when the Sire and Mare mate. It will never change in a horses life, but it can be overcome. Grittar and Red Alligator are more built for speed rather than staying. However they were nurtured to stay.
#453
February 4th, 2012 18:11
I too have not found dosage helpful to my brain
but its nice for those that like to use it as a factor…. just hope it doesn’t put them off a winner too much 
Hard work much appreciated all the same ASM/Neil.
I think Graham and Dragonman better start looking for their ‘faux naked Lady Godiva suits’ I would love to see the team ‘representing’ in the enclosure… with some decorum
#454
February 4th, 2012 18:48
I’m really grateful for the dosage stats you put up, Neil [they seem to work particularly well for the flat handicaps] but I think it’s a ‘bloke thing’ in that, no matter how many times you explain it I just can’t get my head round it![a sort of offside rule for racing] It’s one of the factors that are an ‘additional tool’ rather than a ‘cast in stone’ stat [like the 'a National winner needs to be able to jump' stat, that I choose to ignore each year!]. Since we’ve had the dosage on here, I’d be lost without being able to read it. One day a little light will go on over my head and it will all become clear to me! I think…..
#455
February 4th, 2012 18:50
This year I’m trying to take a fresh route at looking at the field. Was thinking about a point system earlier in year, then certain conditions came out like the 3 mile or longer chase getting 4th or better in position and I’m wondering how to exploit it to pick the winner.
One thing I must stress I think it’ll be foolish to look at certain weights and saying too heavy. It might turn out that way for this year but I think this trend is being eroded.
#456
February 4th, 2012 18:51
.hadn’t noticed Smoking Aces was running in Ireland tomorrow till Mike mentioned it! He will win by a country mile, perhaps, at 14/1?!
#457
February 4th, 2012 18:54
Oh for the days when we could eliminate 3/4 of the field! Agree about the weight thing, Neil. i think, even before the compression of the weights, horses with over 11st had a good chance of placing albeit not winning. Would like to look at results for the past few years to see if that’s correct.
#458
February 4th, 2012 19:35
I see Rare Bob appears in Crisp’s list. That makes me happier.
My criteria this year take into account,
Chase runs 10+
Won/placed at Aintree previously (any race incl. Mildmay)
Won left handed
Won over 3m+
Placed over 3.5m+
Won/placed Grade 1/2
Won a handicap chase of OR of 140+
Won placed in chase with 20+ runners
Between the ages of 8-11
Less than three chase falls/UR’s
A third season chaser
A sire from anywhere but IRE
Has run since Boxing Day
A run over the National fences a bonus
Has won within the last two years
And Rare Bob fits rather well.
#459
February 4th, 2012 19:49
Actually just watching Niche Market’s Irish National just brought home the loss of four fantatic horses since that race – two of which we lost in the race itself. Witchita Lineman, Drumconvis, Casey Jones & One Cool Cookie. I suspect they would have bagged some top prizes had they still be with us.
#460
February 4th, 2012 20:04
does anybody know how many of the list have ran in at least 10 chases and which of them runners will be above 140OR and below 156OR? iv found a few good horses i fancy but some fall short on chase runs or wins over 3miles etc. thanks guys
#461
February 4th, 2012 20:06
Seven Towers -abso-blooming-lutely!
Have to say never watched that race back. I was keen on them all…. backed the Niche in that race at my favourite 33s….. nice
#462
February 4th, 2012 20:08
One Cool Cookie full brother is In Compliance and both were entered last year until One Cool Cookie fatal day.
In Compliance did run and finished 13th. Here to remind everyone is a report on last years race.
In Compliance 66-1 13th
Was badly hampered at Becher’s on the first circuit and can not be said to have truly stayed the trip, but decent effort from outsider nonetheless
#463
February 4th, 2012 20:12
Re the weights, horses 11 5 or less on the day are considered the likely winners according to the Grand National sites. In the old days under 11 stone used to be the stat and then Hedgehunter won just over the 11 stone mark.
#464
February 4th, 2012 20:39
Horses currently with less than 10 Chase runs
Another Palm 7
Burton Port 7
Cappa Bleu 5
Hectors Choice 7
Hold On Julio 3
Junior 7
Massini’s Maguire 8
Midnight Haze 9
On His Own 6
Our Island 5
Pearly Steps 7
Quantitativeeasing7
Quel Esprit 6
Quiscover Fontaine7
Shakalakaboomboom 9
Shakervilz 7
Synchronised 8
Viking Blond 4
Weird Al 8
Wymott 8
Horses that have won a handicap chase off 140 or more
According To Pete 142
Alfa Beat 148
Always Right 140
Ballabriggs 150
Calgary Bay 151
Cappa Bleu 140
Deep Purple 149
Little Josh 146
Massini’s Maguire 146
Midnight Chase 158
Mon Mome 148
Neptune Collonges 161
Northern Alliance 140
Planet Of Sound 152
Quantitativeeasing 145
Rare Bob 145
Scotsirish 150
Shakalakaboomboom 140
State Of Play 145
Synchronised 150
Tartak 149
Tatenen 143
Vic Venturi 148
Horses that have won or been placed in a chase with 20+ runners
Always Right
Always Waining
Another Palm
Arbor Supreme
Ballabriggs
Becauseicouldntsee
Black Apalachi
Blazing Tempo
Cappa Bleu
Crescent Island
Giles Cross
Junior
Le Beau Bai
Mon Mome
Niche Market
Northern Alliance
Organisedconfusion
Qhilimar
Quantitativeeasing
Quiscover Fontaine
Rare Bob
Saddlers Storm
Scotsirish
Seabass
Shakalakaboomboom
Some Target
State Of Play
Sunnyhillboy
The Midnight Club
The Package
Treacle
Uncle Junior
Vic Venturi
Horse that have not yet won under rules over 3 miles+
Another Palm
Becauseicouldntsee
Blazing Tempo
Crescent Island
Fair Along
Hectors Choice
In Compliance
Little Josh
Minella Theatre
Our Island
Psycho
Quantitativeeasing
Quel Esprit
Quiscover Fontaine
Schindlers Gold
Seabass
Shakervilz
Stewarts House
Sunnyhillboy
Tartak
Tatenen
Horses that have won or been placed in any race at Aintree
According To Pete
Always Waining
Ballabriggs
Ballyvesey
Black Apalachi
Burton Port
Deep Purple
Fair Along
Hectors Choice
Hello Bud
Killyglen
King Fontaine
Little Josh
Mon Mome
Neptune Collonges
Niche Market
Planet Of Sound
Prince De Beauchene
Rare Bob
Scotsirish
State Of Play
Stewarts House
Sunnyhillboy
Tartak
Tatenen
Vic Venturi
Westend Rocker
Horses by an Irish bred stallion
Abbeybraney
Always Right
Calgary Bay
Cappa Bleu
Giles Cross
Hold On Julio
Junior
King Fontaine
Massini’s Maguire
Minella Theatre
Our Island
Pearly Steps
Psycho
Quiscover Fontaine
Roulez Cool
Saddlers Storm
Schindlers Gold
Seabass
Stewarts House
Tatenen
Tharawaat
Uncle Junior
Westend Rocker
Horses that will not have won for over two years if they fail to win between now and the race
Abbeybraney
Any Currency
Arbor Supreme
Backstage
Becauseicouldntsee
Black Apalachi
Burton Port
Cooldine
Killyglen
Mon Mome
Niche Market
Northern Alliance
Saddlers Storm
Shakervilz
State Of Play
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Vic Venturi
Horse with three or more career chase falls/UR’s
Arbor Supreme
Becauseicouldntsee
Mon Mome
Neptune Collonges
Roberto Goldback
Tatenen
Horses with no career chase falls/UR’s
According To Pete
Another Palm
Any Currency
Ballyvesey
Blazing Tempo
Burton Port
Cooldine
Hectors Choice
Hold On Julio
Junior
Le Beau Bai
Massini’s Maguire
Midnight Haze
On His Own
Our Island
Schindlers Gold
Shakalakaboomboom
Shakervilz
Smoking Aces
State Of Play
Swing Bill
Synchronised
Tartak
Uncle Junior
Viking Blond
Weird Al
Westend Rocker
Wymott
Horses that are yet to win a handicap chase
Abbeybraney
Apt Approach
Becauseicouldntsee
Burton Port
Chicago Grey
Cooldine
Fair Along
In Compliance
Killyglen
Our Island
Pearly Steps
Quel Esprit
Quiscover Fontaine
Roberto Goldback
Shakervilz
The Midnight Club
Viking Blond
Weird Al
Wymott
Of course I may have got one or two things awry but as far as I am aware this is all correct and the work of a few hours!
#465
February 4th, 2012 21:07
If there was one stat that is absolutely cast in stone, which one is it?
#466
February 4th, 2012 21:08
Seven Towers..that would take me weeks, not hours!
#467
February 4th, 2012 21:11
Maureen is the one absolute chance cast in stone, yes 9 year olds have a better than 1 in 3 chance of coming up. 37 have won in 100 runnings more than double any other single age.
#468
February 4th, 2012 21:24
im really enjoying the look of always right and according to pete. are they preparing for a tilt at aintree?? i like on his own too but the non 10 chases is a worry.
#469
February 4th, 2012 21:26
Just lost a long post saying i am “posting too quickly”! First post today.
#470
February 4th, 2012 21:31
Nine year olds entered are:
Any Currency
Apt Approach
Becauseicouldn’tsee
Calgary Bay
Chicago Grey
Cresent Island
Hold On Julio
Junior
King Fontaine
Le Beau Bai
Minella Theatre
Neptune Equester
Pearlysteps
Prince De Beauchene
Seabass
Shakervilz
Sunnyhillboy
Synchronised
Tartak
The Package
Weird Al
#471
February 4th, 2012 21:38
On the other side of the coin are the teenagers, in my opinion if you got enough money in a betting exchange like Betfair & Betdaq then lay these to lose. You’re almost as sure if you lay these to even not get in the first four and your liability will be lower.
My evidence is in the past 100 runnings only 1 13 has won, no 13 year old or older has been placed (tradional placing) since 1969 and in the entire history of the national only 2 13 year olds have won and 1 15 year old.
I think as they get older they lose their speed, and I will predict that neither Black Apalachi or Hello Bud will win or get in the first 4 unless the are a few finishers (say 4
)
#472
February 5th, 2012 00:08
I always looked for a 9 or 10 year old with @ 10.7. Old enough to be experienced but with a possibility of more improvement [as a staying chaser, whereas round the point of equilibrium over shorter distances]. A formula that used to work in the past. Possibly need to re assess the weight.
#473
February 5th, 2012 00:11
Crescent Island looks interesting. Grand National winning trainer as well [although NTD seems to have lost his way a bit recently].
#474
February 5th, 2012 01:06
Post 470 I did as well Maureen but also agree weight issue going up, what I can’t workout is do we set limit of recent years as below 11st 5 lbs because if we do likely not able to look at Synchronised,Ballabriggs and with a run one I would do regardless, got a massive soft spot for and can see doing a Crisp is Midnight Chase leading from start to finish but without the Red Rum.
#475
February 5th, 2012 06:08
maureen
POST 464 “If there was one stat that is absolutely cast in stone, which one is it?”
Seeing as the GNat is the biggest HCAP Chase there is, it would make sense that performances under these rules would be the most important stat. Think Crisp may have done this but regardless, I’ve been through recent winners and heres how HCap chase strike rate stands:-
1sts Place Races PlaceStrikeR%
Balla 3 6 6 100.00
Dont 1 2 5 40.00
Mon M 2 9 19 47.37
Comply 1 3 8 37.50
Silver 3 4 7 57.14
No6 3 3 6 50.00
Hedgie 2 4 7 57.14
Amb H 3 11 21 52.38
Montys 3 11 18 61.11
Bind 0 2 6 33.33
Red M 4 5 12 41.67
Papi 4 6 15 40.00
Bobby 4 6 13 46.15
Earth 4 6 14 42.86
So a minimum HCap strike rate of 40% should have been attained by this years bunch.
#476
February 5th, 2012 06:13
Doesn’t look clear now I’ve posted it but hopefully good enough.
The other stat that stood out while reviewing this – of these 14 recent winners, 8 won on their first ccompleted HCap chase run and a further 3 came second. That’s 78% 1/2 so possibly another way of narrowing down the field.
#477
February 5th, 2012 06:58
Ballabriggs should read 3,6,7 and 85% S/R.
#478
February 5th, 2012 09:56
Hi Aldaniti & Spartan missile.
Very interested in your dosage perspective.
Do you have a full list of which of your categories, past winners fell into?
It would give us a clearer take on the significance but unfortunately I would be lost trying to calculate this myself.
#479
February 5th, 2012 11:02
KJ, sorry, I haven’t got up to date left handed RPR figures.
RPR figures; just to clarify for myself and others interested (are these correct?);
21/21 posted chase RPR>OR 4+
(Ballabriggs 4, 20/21 RPR>OR 5+)
18/21 posted RPR>OR 4+ in winning season or last 2 chases
(Royal Athlete in last 4 chases, Bobbyjo did in last 13 months-6 chases, Papillon in last 8 chases)
15/21 posted highest chase RPR in winning season
(Royal Athlete,Bobbyjo,Red Marauder,Papillon Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs)
20/21 posted highest ever left handed RPR in last 4 left handed chases (Papillon odd one out) Only Bobbyjo didnt post left handed RPR>OR 4+.
#480
February 5th, 2012 11:03
Hi Thaimark.
Re your win/place strike rate of 40 %.win/place in H/caps. This does not bode well for my current fancy Niche Market. Just 4 win/places from 15 H/cp chase starts; 25% approx.
Also not won for ages and only off OR 136.
Needs to show more, but after weights published.
Something of a concern!
#481
February 5th, 2012 11:26
9 and 10 yr olds have good strike rate. But its not a cast iron stat. 40% win/place strike rate? Not cast iron either.
Maureen – i beleive there is 1 cast iron stat of the laast 20 years. I will post it once i found out.
#482
February 5th, 2012 11:30
Here is the only cast iron stat…..
Every single winner of the Grand National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over three miles or further over fences.
#483
February 5th, 2012 12:06
Mike N
Nearly correct – Red Marauder hadn’t. He won a 3 mile hurdle race but like many I never take that race into account.
What is also becoming clear is that as well as the three mile chase rule highlighted by Mike N is that in addition to this nearly all have also won or placed over 28f.
The exceptions are (Red Marauder – forget him) Monty’s Pass and Ballabriggs who never attempted 28f or further prior to victory.
Now, by 28f I mean the Racing Post’s definition of 28f, so I am aware people will highlight Don’t Push It and Royal Athlete as winning over 3m 3.5f. However, I am sticking with the RP.
The one fly in my ointment is Rough Quest because for some reason his form has been deleted from the RP site. Therefore I do not know if he attempted 28f prior to winning.
#484
February 5th, 2012 12:09
I mean 28f or further not 28f exactly. Now that would be a stat!
#485
February 5th, 2012 12:14
As an adjunct my post above the horse that fit the three mile & won/placed over 28f or further rule are thus –
According To Pete
Always Right
Any Currency
Arbor Supreme
Ballabriggs
Ballyvesey
Black Apalachi
Cappa Bleu
Chicago Grey
Deep Purple
Giles Cross
Hello Bud
Junior
Le Beau Bai
Midnight Chase
Mon Mome
Neptune Equester
Niche Market
Organisedconfusion
Rare Bob
Roulez Cool
Smoking Aces
Some Target
State Of Play
Synchronised
Uncle Junior
Westend Rocker
That’s 33% of the entries!
#486
February 5th, 2012 12:17
And of course this list may well increase after the Haydock Trial and Eider. It’s quite a good base from which to begin however.
#487
February 5th, 2012 12:27
I like NH Chase participants also. It’s a wonderful source of subsequent “National” winners and placed horses. Not necessarily Aintree National winners although Silver Birch & Hedgehunter both ran in it in recent years.
Quite a few entered this year.
Chicago Grey
Pearlysteps
Le Beau Bai
Niche Market
Alfa Beat
Any Currency
Becauseicouldntsee
On His Own
Some Target
Abbeybraney
#488
February 5th, 2012 13:20
Here is the only cast iron stat…..
In every ‘normal’ GN, every single winner of the Grand National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over three miles or further over fences.
#489
February 5th, 2012 13:27
Is everyone out enjoying the snow? It’s all so quiet.
Again following on from the above I have listed all those horses that have attempted 28f or further and failed to achieve a win or placing.
Abbeybraney
Alfa Beat
Always Waining
Backstage
Calgary Bay
Deep Purple
Fair Along
In Compliance
Killyglen
King Fontaine
Neptune Collonges
On His Own
Our Island
Pearly Steps
Qhilimar
Quantitativeeasing
Saddlers Storm
Scotsirish
Shakervilz
The Midnight Club
The Package
Treacle
Vic Venturi
Viking Blond
This may seem harsh for some of these, in particular Scotsirish who took the incorrect course on his only attempt and Alfa Beat who was fourth in a 16 runner chase. Strictly this was a conditions race however.
The one who should worry any backers is Vic Venturi. How many times will his supporters forgive him? Even when he does consent to complete he is nowhere near the front!
#490
February 5th, 2012 13:51
I don’t think any horse with strong gale in its pedigree has ever even been placed. Not sure how many runners this equates to over how many years!
#491
February 5th, 2012 13:59
Using the following elimination process
Eliminate Horses that:-
Have not had 10+ chases
Have not won a handicap chase
Have not won over 3 miles or further
Have not won/placed in a chase with 17+ runners
Have not won left handed
Are aged 7, 12 or over
Have had 3 or more chase falls/UR’s
Were novices this season or last season
Not won for two years or more (at the time of the race)
Have run over 28f but have failed to win/place
Have an Irish bred stallion, and finally
Have Strong Gale in them
You are left with the following
Ballabriggs
Le Beau Bai
Midnight Chase
Planet Of Sound
Rare Bob
And when he has his 10th run Shakalakaboomboom will appear in the list.
Rare Bob just keeps on appearing.
#492
February 5th, 2012 14:00
Actually Shakalakaboomboom was a novice last season so he can wiped off too!
#493
February 5th, 2012 14:03
7T
Re your list of “Have run over 28f but have failed to win/place” Surely Deep Purple’s win over 30F keeps him out of your 28F “failures”?
Cheers.
PtP
#494
February 5th, 2012 14:37
PTP
Yes, human error that one. He’d still be eliminated from the above however because of his failure to be placed in a large runner field.
#495
February 5th, 2012 14:37
I also noticed Rare Bob
certainly jumps like him.
Quietly going about like Cooldine perhaps
Last run as I said before worries me- he dropped off like an anchor had been attached!? something wrong? racing over far too short a distance now…for some reason?
1 win in last year or two at 21f.
He had best season when he was a 7yr old, which I think isn’t a bad indicator in some ways, there are several GN winners that have shone as 7yr olds aren’t there???
certainly hasn’t sparkled tho recently and interestingly hasn’t tried anything as far as 28f+ since his 4th in Irish Nat!!???
He certainly is up there in the mileage among entries this yr, but having run 22 chases with a win/place strike rate 50% is amazing, as he hasn’t exactly done that in last couple of yrs.
A plot or not!?
#496
February 5th, 2012 14:50
RED PEN OUT TODAY
3 Strikes and you are out rule!!
Any 3 important enough stats and you are off my list, so far Quantitativeasing 7 too young,Not won over 3m & Attempted 3M 4F not in first 3.
Our Island : Same as above.
Only 80 left !!
Any help re.3 strike rule please help!!
#497
February 5th, 2012 15:32
Rare Bob has been running shocking this season despite the stats.
I wouldnt rule out second season novices either. Numbersixvalverde won it as a second season novice.
#498
February 5th, 2012 15:43
You’ve got to eliminate them somehow. Would you eliminate a second season chaser with less than 10 runs? That way Bindaree and Numbersix would be ok.
That would still eliminate Shakalaka as things stand but he’s bound to run over fences again between now and the race.
#499
February 5th, 2012 15:49
The thing with Rare Bob is that his best comes arguably in the spring.
#500
February 5th, 2012 15:56
Afternoon all
Lovely 28f Irish Grand National trial at Punches 3.20 inc Smoking Aces – a GN entry.
Posted up my tips and analysis on the Feb bets thread
#501
February 5th, 2012 15:59
Seven Towers – your short list is nice and er short! more ruthless than I could ever hope to be
Thanks for printing up your criteria/processing/extra effort! it will help people with a tendency to forgive some failures with their favourites.
I for one, am willing to forgive Mon Mome his 3rd F in the GN, cause he was knackered after a decent GC run. Remember how Imperial Commander jumped at aintree after his GC win….. ay caramba! MM did well enough for me.
Ballabriggs
Le Beau Bai
Midnight Chase
Planet Of Sound
Rare Bob
All of these are of interest to me and hard to rule in or out,…. real rib stickers!
Red- I’ve had the red pen out before, too early perhaps as I’ve started bringing some back in! Going to have to get it back out.
I like to see horses run well at 28f+ and ideally good spins over 24f, key race is nice 1st-4th.
The LH RPR I am hoping will help me and a few others out, but always get those RPR readings wrong or confused so hopefully one of our experts can come up trumps and shed light there soon. Please
But generally I like to see a good mix of all the stats, unfortunately this year alot are missing something atleast.
I am going to have to get over the 2012 winner DPI being retired
and have a new vision,…. other than Synchronised and WER, who have made their claims possibly too obvious to Phil.
momentum is key, Ballabriggs was built for this race, so any novicey types will have to have the look.
I want something else, traditionally weighted, with experience or not I can’t decide that!!! 9/10 preferably, big field experience preferably front runners aside, previous runners that have placed should be put aside ( a tough one) avoiding Strong Gale, Presenting? Kayf Tara maybe? looking for the perfect Flemensfirth perhaps again?
also I am going to avoid horses that can’t jump! high head carriage is a no no, small bottoms a negative
You see my problem clear as mud!
who is the Bindaree horse always seems the question! lots of newbies will fall short, but can we find the one that might come good? ramble done.
#502
February 5th, 2012 16:15
Yes I did mean to say 2012 winner DPI
correction Flemensfirth- so last yr. Oh Kayf Tara Kayf Taras???
Such a shame most of the last batch of Old Vics met their end.
Thanks for reminder Showlad.
#503
February 5th, 2012 16:18
KJ, take a look at Aiteenthirtythree’s breeding…..
#504
February 5th, 2012 16:37
Get in the Showlad!!!!
Top pick wins
Hope you all on
#505
February 5th, 2012 16:42
Well Portrait King may make some believe that Roselier does indeed counteract Strong Gale. It was 3m 4f however not 4m 4f.
#506
February 5th, 2012 16:43
failed to go thro yer tips in time Showlad,… and just went for the Old Vic runner/ fav, who wasn’t ‘smokin’ today.
#507
February 5th, 2012 16:47
Neil thanks for your great doseage efforts.
Indeed as you pointed out – just one of the many threads to consider – just as going prefs; distance; jockey; stable form; race experience; course experience; carryin weight and many many more – the kaleidoscsope that make up the wonderful art of finding the winner
But thanks for your tireless efforts – we all contribute so many different part that make up the whole on here
7T – some nice considerations to look at – thanks.
RA and your red pen lol – I think National Punter is most famous on here for it – love the image it projects – hilarious!
#508
February 5th, 2012 16:48
Le Bavard not Roselier – sorry!
#509
February 5th, 2012 16:49
…and that is the point tho isn’t it 7T. These sires are very good at 3m 4f.
Wasn’t D’Argent Roselier/ Strong Gale? he went well for a horse that didn’t like it apparently,….. until 2 out? when he fell.
#510
February 5th, 2012 17:03
Calling Neil/7T, all doseage kings: has anyone listed up those with Strong Gale influence in this year’s GN line-up?
It is Strong Gale esp on the sire side, yes or does either side still have a telling mark on a horse’s staying performance?
#511
February 5th, 2012 17:04
Meant to saying ‘breeding kings’ lol
#512
February 5th, 2012 17:11
d’Argent was out of a Monksfield mare. The Alan King Roselier/Strong Gale gelding was Fork Lightning.
#513
February 5th, 2012 17:24
Please correct where wrong, but I make it:
Direct Strong Gale:
Killyglen
Another Palm
Cappa Bleu
On His Own
Indirect through shared relative:
West End Rocker
Chicago Grey
Junior
Apt Approach
Masini’s Maguire
Psycho
#514
February 5th, 2012 17:57
Running quickly through my old stats,
8-12 year old;
OR 136-157 (using racing post figures);
not a novice this and previous seaseon;
won over 3 1/4 miles;
placed (1-2-3) in a field of 13 or more;
and most important to me, ran and finished in a recognised trial race, (see dates for diary thread).
I’ve come up with the following
1 Always Waining
2 Cappa Bleu
3 Fair Along
4 Giles Cross
5 Le Beau Bai
6 Niche Market
7 Qhilimar
8 Uncle Junior
9 West End Rocker
#515
February 5th, 2012 18:03
Out of this nine Uncle Junior win of firm going at cheltenham might mean the firmer going in the spring might suit him, views please
#516
February 5th, 2012 18:10
RP quote from Dessie Hughes after his Grade 1 win (which was on good ground NOT soft – this was highlighted to viewers in the documentary on Paul Nolan a couple of years back)
“He´s now won three chases and running in the Irish National made a man of him. He didn´t stay the three mile five furlong trip but that race taught him a lot.”
#517
February 5th, 2012 19:00
I like that list, Neil. My favoured horses are in it; Fair Along, Giles Cross [going for the Eider I believe], Le Beau Bai, West End Rocker and the Niche who, I hope the handicapper has finally given a chance. Mention on William Hill Radio today of Merigo, who still appears to be aimed at the Scottish National, although the doubt being that his abysmal performances this year might mean he won’t get into the race. I felt that retirement was beckoning for him.
#518
February 5th, 2012 19:07
Peter The Pig, Killyglen is by Presenting not Strong Gale. Some of the others arent right either.
#519
February 5th, 2012 19:12
Killyglen’s great damsire is Strong Gale.
#520
February 5th, 2012 19:14
>>The one fly in my ointment is Rough Quest because for some reason his form has been deleted from the RP site. Therefore I do not know if he attempted 28f prior to winning.
Pretty sure the furthest he attempted prior to his National win was the 3m3.5f chase at the Mackeson meeting, in which he fell when travelling well upsides the eventual winner. Of course he was runner-up in the Gold Cup and the Hennessy that year over 1f shorter.
He had at least three falls to his name by Grand National day, which unusual for a National winner surely.
#521
February 5th, 2012 19:16
7T
I think Henderson commented that Shakalakaboomboom’s Aintree prep was to be over hurdles, so he may not get another chase run before April.
#522
February 5th, 2012 19:16
However, you have Presenting who is now a 28 fence Grand National winning sire (had to have a little dig!) as his stallion.
His damsire is Phardante – stallion of GN 3rd Niki Dee.
His great damsire is Strong Gale – bad I tell you.
His great great damsire is Prince Hansel – damsire of Papillon
#523
February 5th, 2012 19:18
I would have been tempted to be the one deleting Rough Quest’s form. That horse cost me an absolute packet that season, one way or another.
#524
February 5th, 2012 19:21
Post 514 Whoa !
Always Waining even the owner doesn’t think it will get 3m 2f
Cappa Bleu – Strong Gale direct see thread 513
Fair Along & Qhilimar attempted 3m 4f and not in first 3.
Giles Cross would he want it soft ??
On normal good or good/soft that may help to narrow it down to 4 for you A & SM !!
Comments please good or bad on Le Beau Bai he seems to be figuring on a few stats short lists ??
#525
February 5th, 2012 19:49
Hi Red Alligator.
Re Le Beau Bai.
French Bred & seems to only excel in soft/heavy around Chepstow. Rated in Extremely negative bracket in the earlier Dosage catagories. Never tried Aintree course so who knows!
#526
February 5th, 2012 20:03
I’m on Le Beau Bai. Who knows whether it will be soft or not? I’d rather be on now than wait until a day before the race only to see it turn soft and see his odds plummet. Assume nothing at this stage especially concerning the weather.
Likeable horse, have a lot of time for his trainer a very amiable man and willing to talk to racegoers as he did to me half way through watching his Victory Gunner win the Kent National! LBB has yet to hit the deck and pray God he never does.
#527
February 5th, 2012 20:11
Le Beau Bai best chase RPRs:
Heavy 150
Soft 139
Good to soft 118
Good 112
#528
February 5th, 2012 20:23
I went to this seasons Southern National at Fontwell and backed Le Beau Bai – it ran like a donkey, never figured and was tailed off.
Before the off, my Mrs went to the paddock and liking the look of Giles Cross, backed it at small stakes – obviously it romped home.
LBB reversed the form at the Welsh Nat. and the rest is history – with LBB rated one of the top soft-ground horses entered in the GN.
But (big but!) if it is soft for the GN and GC gets in there is obvious form between the two.
#529
February 5th, 2012 21:05
RA you’re perfectly right Always Waining hasn’t won over 3 1/4 miles so I must have added him in due to human error.
#530
February 5th, 2012 21:17
Junior
Highest handicap winning mark: 134.
Current mark: 153.
Difference between current mark and last winning mark: 19
The biggest difference between GN winning mark and that of last handicap winning mark in last 10 years: 12 (Numbersixvalverde 126-138)
#531
February 5th, 2012 21:31
7 years ago, Hedgehunter won Thyestes off 129 and GN off 144 (difference of 15)
13 years ago, Bobbyjo won the Irish National off 122 and the GN off 142 (difference of 20)
Last year, Oscar Time won the Paddy Power off 124 and came second off 145 in GN (difference of 21)
#532
February 5th, 2012 22:19
Too easy.
#533
February 5th, 2012 22:35
So the first two had posted victories over 28f and further and the third one didn’t actually win?
#534
February 5th, 2012 22:45
“Seven Towers
February 5th, 2012 21:17
Junior
Highest handicap winning mark: 134.
Current mark: 153.
Difference between current mark and last winning mark: 19
The biggest difference between GN winning mark and that of last handicap winning mark in last 10 years: 12 (Numbersixvalverde 126-138)”
Fair point but those of us that have him in our short lists expect to see some form this season so his next two races (if two) are very important. For me a 1/2/3 at 25f or more is essential or you can right him off completely.
Junior could be anything, a “talking horse” or the real thing until his next race or two (after weights out, which has always been the plan) we will not know. Agreed the rise in OR is a worry but so it is for many of the better selections. Which is why WER has to be the best stats runner currently as he does have a win this season at 26f in a key race and has also won over 29f.
Alternatively you could have a selection on the way down, I would rather have a selection on the way up who may just may have a lot more to give (Synchronised was good example who improved again in his last run [if only he had keep it for the GN] but will now have top weight). The only exception to not selectioning a downward OR runner would be a horse recovering from injury who had taken time off to recover but showed some sort of form this season (1/2/3 at 25f oor more).
#535
February 5th, 2012 22:57
Seven Towers Post 491 – i think you are in danger of making my mistake over the last three years and overworking the stats (“trying too hard”). Far too many stats in that list – it would be more realistic if you also included at least for consideration (or a list B)those runners who failed to meet only one or even two of your stats – I think then your list would be more realistic if a lot longer.
Its why i am adopting a more basic approach this year with my “Basic GN system” but will still lokk at those who nearly fit.
#536
February 6th, 2012 02:51
I need to clear up this “Irish doesn’t breed a GN winner” as it’s conflicting and unclear. At present the facts point otherwise.
7T or anybody, below is a list from 7T and if in brackets, how they appear on Pedigree Query. It has been said Pedigreequery is not correct so this being the case (I don’t care who’s right or wrong), where do we do look for the real info????
• Seven Towers
April 6th, 2011 18:28
Here’s something a bit different for you. Forget where a horse is bred. Below is a list of the winning stallions of the last twenty years and where they themselves were bred.
Balak GB (IRE)
Politico USA
Kambalda GB
Roselier FR
Crash Course GB
Ring The Bell NZ
Celtic Cone GB
Bustineto GB (IRE)
Lafontaine USA
Gunner B GB
Roselier FR
Montelimar USA
Buckskin FR
Montelimar USA
Broken Hearted GB (IRE)
Clearly Bust GB (IRE)
Old Vic GB
Passing Sale FR
Old Vic GB
Below is the damsire of the winning horses of the last 20 years and where they were bred.
Bally Royal GB
Royalty GB
Choral Society GB
Darantus GB (IRE)
Private Walk GB
Crest Of The Wave GB
National Trust GB
Appiani II GB
Prince Hansel GB
Precipice Wood GB
Main Reef GB
Monksfield GB (IRE)
Al Sirat GB
Caerwent GB (IRE)
Le Bavard FR
Giolla Mear GB
Furry Glen GB (IRE)
New Target GB (IRE)
Alleged USA
#537
February 6th, 2012 08:48
Systemsman
I agree. I myself don’t use the elimination method at all. I put that there as an example of how one could bring about a ‘short shortlist’. Personally I like a scoring method. However, both methods seem to always bring up the names of Rare Bob & Le Beau Bai who are worth a couple of quid of anyone’s money given their current prices.
#538
February 6th, 2012 10:43
RARE BOB is one of the more interesting entries for sure. He went into a lot of our notebooks after his Irish National 4th when only a 7yo novice and being trained by Dessie Hughes it’s no real surprise that he has waited this long before a possible crack at Aintree (Dessie said last year that the National is not a race for young horses).
He’s been 4th in an Irish National, won a Grade 1 and finished a good 3rd in the 2010 John Smiths Hcap Chase over the Mildmay course and was still going ok in the 2011 race before unseating 2-out. His form at times over the last few years has drifted in and out a bit but he has back-class. If you look through his form a couple of things stand out. Firstly, despite all of his wins coming on soft/heavy ground his best form has arguably been in defeat in the races mentioned above, on good ground. Secondly, if you look at the handicap chases that he has run in (9 in total I think) he has carried top weight of 11-12 or 11-10 in 6 and carried 11st+ in a further two so he may have been anchored by big weights. His current rating is 147 which should get him in well below 11st. He’s had a spin over the National fences and jumped pretty well but got stuck in the mud under 11-10. He’s also won a handicap chase off 145 so will be running off a only a couple of lbs higher than his last winning one.
As someone else said, a lot of his best form is in the spring which coincides in part to a preference for good ground. He ticks a lot of the right boxes and is is in the hands of a very shrewd trainer who’s recent success over these fences warrants a lot of respect. He likes to be up with the pace which is a running style which suits the National and he jumps pretty well in the main. 50/1 looks big but will he see out 4m4f?
#539
February 6th, 2012 10:53
Dug out all of my stats info. and found my lists for last couple of years.Lists both had winner on in last 10 horses. However I didn’t end up backing either as I trimmed to 6 to back. Learning from this is that every year amore than one stat likely to get bust which causes the last minute hitch in final selection. Last year for example I gave a point for every good stat any horses with less than 6 instantly deleted. this worked well. However my highest number of plus points was 13 and the winner had 8 and the runner up 9 and I ended up backing the horses with 11 to 13 plus points.
How to solve this problem, don’t know HELP!! frightened of doing it again.
It seems to prove that most of what we talk about/discuss helps narrow field down to say a quarter of final 40 but how do we then ensure getting winner if system I have used very STATS based didn’t pinpoint ????
On the good news side I have won 5 out of last 10 but none of the last 3 probably due to the 11st + horses winning last 3 years. Will learn from that if nothing else.
#540
February 6th, 2012 11:43
Re Rare Bob. I don’t know if he’ll stay. Bob Back was a stallion that kept hitting the post in terms of four mile winners and then all of sudden up popped Synchronised with Bob Back as his damsire and then the ill fated Minella Four Star.
Minella Four Star did have the benefit of having Orchestra in him (Relaxation, Miss Orchestra) and Cantab (Little Polveir, The Thinker). Rare Bob doesn’t have this kind of staying pedigree and he is actually related closely to Tuitchev who ran so often over 2 -2.5 miles but always looked as though he would get three miles and did.
Rare Bob’s damsire Kalaglow is in a dual four mile winner. Kalaglow was the stallion of Weld – Hot Weld’s sire.
If I am honest he has never struck me as a thorough stayer but then neither did Ballabriggs, especially with the way he emptied when he won at Cheltenham. He fits so well that I have had to have a bit of him.
#541
February 6th, 2012 11:54
Stayer
I agree with your post about Rare Bob – he does prefer better ground and as I commented above his Grade 1 was on good rather than soft ground.
I don’t think there is anywhere else for Rare Bob to go but the National – he probably won’t get to run from under 11’0 in any other handicap and he won’t be winning a Hennessy or a Grade 1 at his age.
The key point for me is “50/1 looks big but will he see out 4m4f?”. Maybe he has more stamina as he has become more mature but the comment that Dessie said about him not staying in the Irish National as a 7yo would worry me (when it’s not uncommon for a 7yo horse to win the Irish National). Also Niche Market has comfortably beaten him at Fairyhouse and Aintree on contrasting surfaces.
His form this season has been very poor too – he’d have to have a very good preparation to be of interest to me.
#542
February 6th, 2012 12:08
rare bob – i agree that he would need to show some form or to have been laid out for the race (hurdles runs for example). i remember chief dan george hit all my trends and lists last year but i noted in my analysis that he hadnt shown much – and he didn’t plodding round in his own time. i have learned my lesson blindly applying the trends without worrying about form. but aside from that there is certainly a lot to like about the profile. and there isnt many out there at 50/1! good luck.
#543
February 6th, 2012 12:17
Neptune Equester going today think over 3m 4f favourite at 5/2, worth looking at.
Page 8 of today’s Racing Post ask’s about 5 experts for ante post fancy for National and two of them pick Burton Port surely likely big weight would anchor him I know he’s got a bit of class, thoughts.
#544
February 6th, 2012 12:41
Genes do play a part. I really believe that. As alluded to previously we know that Hallo Dandy & Rhyme N reason were very closely related (thus highlighting the importance of the dam over the stallion). Cornish Sett was from the same line but didn’t do it at Aintree.
Niche Market is from the same family as Amberleigh House and in truth his run last year was not all that disimilar to Amberleigh’s run when he was third. Of course Amberleigh won on his third attempt so the omens may be good.
Ballabriggs was/is from the same family as Out The Black – placed in a Scottish National. I’m still kicking myself about not picking that up until after the event.
Ballyvesey comes from the family that produced West Tip, Royal Athlete and Tipsy Mouse. He’s low down on everyone’s list no doubt but from a pedigree perspective you can’t get much better. It’s a shame he doesn’t have the class of the first two mentioned.
#545
February 6th, 2012 12:53
I wondered when Burton Port would come up. Not raced in ages so have to wonder about that. Also he’s gone down in my memory bank as the horse with the thinnest head in the world!
… I think he is tiny tiny and will carry alot of weight. I tend to dismiss tiny horses unless I really like. Same sire as Rare Bob hey, infact theres a few of his entered this year.
Good Rare Bob conversation… conclusion possibly best 50-1 horse on the block! but I agree I need to see something after last run really.
Intersesting Niche related to Amberleigh. Thanks for reminder 7T, don’t know if I am repeating myself but, think Graham/Paul should take note from that winning season and how they trained Amberleigh, to run on at the end of his races in his prep races,it was there for all to see and I saw it
…he was like a different horse that year, it bloody worked!
#546
February 6th, 2012 12:54
Red Alligator would love to see your list this year even at this early stage as we may be able to add or eliminate a few.
Yep the last three years also caught me out with those higher weight winners – its a chance i took and payed the price for getting it wrong (even if i got 2nd last year and was robbed of first – missing fence!). Will not exclude anything this year but still looking at the main trends and top weights dont win unless you are Red Rum (i guess it will happen again one day but maybe its a risk i will have to take)- 11.05 is my top (for a main bet)at this point until its broken in another GN.
#547
February 6th, 2012 13:24
i do believe the 2 main stats are.. 3mile victory and 10 chase runs. and dont look above 1 stone above bottom weight. even if u eliminate horses based on weight predictions and ratings i think u will find only about 15 horses are left. u then have to look at which horses have the best form and class for the weight they have. just because they fit the stats does not mean they have the recent form or class to win.
#548
February 6th, 2012 13:46
I had to feel sorry for Can’t Buy Time yesterday. It was much like watching The Sawyer’s visit to Auteuil.
You could almost sense the horse saying to himself, ‘what the %!$? are you trying to make me do here? I didn’t sign up for this’.
Scotsirish has adapted well to the banks. His worst jump came at the last regulation fence but he does still have that touch of class. I do hope they give Aintree a go whilst he still has ability.
#549
February 6th, 2012 13:54
I was trying to post regarding Rare Bob but it won’t let me.
Basically, thanks for the comments I agree with much of that. Recent form isn’t great but Dessie Hughes seemed please enough with the Becher run. He was giving 5lbs and up to his rivals and most 14lbs+ in very testing ground and gained a sighter over the fences. Apparently he’s running in the Bobbyjo next which is after the weights come out. Dessie Hughes uses this as a prep race for a lot of his National runners so hopefully we will see a better performance.
Agree about Scotsirish. Hope that they have a go at the National rather than the Topham again.
#550
February 6th, 2012 14:36
My post #536 ref supposed discrepencies on pedigreequery – anybody care to comment – Seven Towers, can you clear it up? I find it difficult to finalise a list with the Irish breeding thing hanging around. Thanks in anticipation……….
#551
February 6th, 2012 15:08
Mark,
I think what SevenTowers is trying to say is that whilst quite a few of the stallions and damsires of the last 20 national winners may be based/stand in Ireland, non of those horses were actually originally bred there.
Seven Towers’ post from last year was before Ballabriggs won the race. Ballabriggs is by Presenting, who stands in Ireland but is a British bred horse (Mtoto – D’Azy). His Damsire, Little Bighorn is also a Britsh bred horse according to the Racing Post but Pedigree Query has him as Irish bred as he stands in Ireland. Ballabriggs may be have been conceived and foaled in Ireland hence the (IRE) after his name but he is very much a horse bred from British bloodstock.
#552
February 6th, 2012 15:18
Thaimark
The Racing Post comes up with different places of origin for the likes of Clearly Bust and Broken Hearted. I suspect this is because their records only go back so far. Menelek, for instance was Irish but the RP comes back with GB I believe. However, I have checked online with Weatherby’s and Menelek was Irish, haven’t checked the others because it costs! However, I would still maintain a note of caution with pedigreequery as you would with wikipedia or any other site that relies on the accurateness of human input. So the Irish stallion myth that I instigated can be laid to rest. However, it did come with a massive caveat when I bought it up last year.
#553
February 6th, 2012 15:54
Seven Towers,
Thanks for clearing that up. There do appear to be some inconsistencies between various websites.
Burton Port and Little Josh both entered in the Denman (formerly Aon) Chase on Saturday (3m Gd2). Little Josh will need a 4th or better to qualify for Aintree. It will be interesting to see how Burton Port gets on after nearly 450 days off.
#554
February 6th, 2012 16:41
Yeah, I was surprised to see Burton Port entered for this, so assume this is his Gold Cup trial.
#555
February 6th, 2012 19:50
it seems we bang on about all the stats.. which is true for the winners. but what about e.w. you can still win big money with placed horses
#556
February 6th, 2012 20:36
GNA last year I backed, Oscar Time [betfair], Don’t Push It [Paddys], State Of Play [Don't Push It], Niche Market [betfair].
While the amount I collected was okay, that winner could have made a huge difference.
I didn’t collect on Niche Market, but if Niche Market had swopped places with State Of Play I could have collected on both.
I think that the recognised trial races are the best clues for not just Grand National, but any important race both jumps and flat.
By trial races I don’t just mean one or two races but a whole group of races like the list we put together on the diary thread.
Why? Because it shows a pattern of thinking amongst the trainers.
#557
February 6th, 2012 20:37
State Of Play was backed with Paddys whom paid 5 places.
#558
February 6th, 2012 20:42
Spam
#559
February 6th, 2012 20:45
Admin check your spam, posted 3 messages about today race
#560
February 6th, 2012 22:00
I agree GNA re ews; Neil, I also had 2/3/4/5 last year, would not have selected the winner at all, BUT my other half did 3 horses just by name …..and picked….yep, Ballabriggs.
This year I will be trying a CTC, and CFC with her selections and mine!
#561
February 7th, 2012 01:27
This blog is resolutely refusing to post my horse-by-horse analysis, so here is the summary:
Shortlist -
Planet of Sound
Shakalakaboomboom
Organisedconfusion
Prince de Beauchene
Fair Along
Le Beau Bai (if soft only)
Possibles, but not convincing me -
Midnight Chase
Massini’s Maguire
Always Right
The Midnight Club
Cappa Bleu
Mon Mome
Sunnyhillboy
Treacle
#562
February 7th, 2012 02:36
We are trying to solve the issue with posts not displaying properly so posts going to the spam file will have to be left there for the time being so we can try and work out why this is happening. I would hope the issue will be resolved in the next couple of days.
In the meantime, I will start a new general GN thread and hopefully that will help so please bring your comments on this thread to a close
Thanks
Darren
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