Grand National 2012 – Initial Entry Stage Page Three
Posted on February 21st, 2012 in Uncategorized
Please add all your thoughts/trends and tips to this page for the Grand National 2012
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This post has 793 comments
#1
February 21st, 2012 10:52
Hi RA.
Massini’s maguire ran off its GN OR of 148
#2
February 21st, 2012 11:11
Thought you would all like to know I have as promised started the long haul of reading every blog again, in case I have forgotten an important point, up to Blog 200 at present,on Initial Blog. VERY INTERESTING READING.
Notice early on some interest in Scotsirish & Quiscover Fontaine can’t remember by whom, but wondered if interest still there?
Post 88 Big Up from Seven Towers re.Space King in pedigree of Planet of Sound.
Taking a break for an hour,getting square eyes.
#3
February 21st, 2012 11:41
Yes I liked and still do like Scotsirish. There have been many decent bits of form but I loved his run behind Big Zeb & Noble Prince. He retains so much class. The obvious unknown is his stamina but I’ve watched his two Tophams and have been very impressed with how he has tackled the fences on both ocassions carrying lumps. I’ve had my £5 at Fancy Dan prices and I’m pleased I have. I want him with me rather than against and the same applies to Uncle Junior. I back about 10 – 12 in the build up when I think something is overpriced and then begin to get really serious once I’ve watched Countryfile on the Sunday before!!! I’ve had my three bigger bets already on TMC, PDB and Cooldine – note the connection!
#4
February 21st, 2012 11:52
Anyone would think you think Willie is going to win the Big One!!
#5
February 21st, 2012 12:15
Anyone have any views on Arbor Supreme? Meets five of my six basic trends… 8-12 y.o., 9+ chase runs, 3+ chase wins, won 3m+, and assuming he goes for the Eider on Saturday he’ll have satisfied the 2-7 weeks prep run stat too. Only thing he’s missing is a top 3 this season but he has a chance of ticking that box too if returning to his old self.
The other angle I was thinking about was the fact he’s now moved to Jonjo O’Neill. Jonjo only has three runners entered this year, and if Synchronised has a hard race in the Gold Cup and Sunnyhillboy doesn’t go then is there any chance AP might take the ride?
All highly speculative I know, but thinking of having a few quid on Betfair (currently 150s) and hoping everything else falls into place – i’ve seen much worse 150/1 chances at this stage!
#6
February 21st, 2012 12:42
Just decided to do the same thing, having backed him every year up until now. Still concerns about his jumping, but Jonjo is brilliant with this type of horse. Only a 10 year old, as well, which surprised me. Also can’t ignore Calgary Bay. Not sure what sort of weight Arbor Supreme has had in previous years. Must be going down, surely. You never know, AP might ride my Smoking Aces for JP!!
#7
February 21st, 2012 12:50
Maureen ARBOR SUPREME 2010 – 10,8 2011- 10,3
#8
February 21st, 2012 12:54
Only carried 10st 3ib last year “mistakes,mid-division, behind from 19th,fell 3 out”.
Previous year 10st 81b “mid-division,blundered and unseated rider 15th”.
Jonjo would indeed have to turn around his fortunes.
#9
February 21st, 2012 12:55
RE: ARBOR SUPREME ,surely he’s run in the national under 10,8 and 10,3 and not got round either time??? now off 10,7 ? and to boot hasn’t won a race since 2008 .
#10
February 21st, 2012 13:27
You would think Mullins surely got the best out of him. He’s a trend fitter, there’s no doubt but he’s building a Can’t Buy Time style record! Am I right in thinking he will have top weight in the Eider? It’s been done a few times in recent years but by better horses it has to be said. I can never write Jonjo off though. I backed Alfie Sherrin for the Paddy Power because I thought he fitted the Jonjo profile perfectly i.e. run a few shockers, then bolt in but he came down unfortuantely. Teeming Rain was another I was fortunate enough to back in the Devon National with form figures of PP0PPFP!
#11
February 21st, 2012 13:56
Shhhhhh! Dont get Bovril started on Arbor Supreme again!!!
#12
February 21st, 2012 14:04
The quality of the race has gone up as far as average OR goes so should we really be looking at cross country horses to win a GN. I’m saying no. Re Armor Supreme he doesn’t act over the fences I backed him one year and he wasn’t enjoying himself.
#13
February 21st, 2012 14:45
I think to label Scotsirish & Uncle Junior as XCounrty horses is not wholly accurate.
#14
February 21st, 2012 14:56
As is calling them XCounrty rather than XCountry!
#15
February 21st, 2012 17:51
Re Arbor Supreme:
2 years ago it was all the rage and both Ruby W (via then trainer) and AP via owner never gave it a second glance which was all that you/we needed to know! Same last year…
Run twice in race and shown zero.
That should do it…:)
#16
February 21st, 2012 17:56
too late ewok!!
#17
February 21st, 2012 18:48
haha
#18
February 21st, 2012 19:18
Hi everyone,
I’m hopeful we may now have cured the problems we have been having with posting – please do let me know on the TECHNICAL PROBLEMS thread if you still are having difficulties after 6pm today (21/2)
Thanks
#19
February 21st, 2012 20:17
Hi maureen.
I would like to air caution with JJ massively improving his horses. As a jockey he had a reputation among my circle, valid or not, for riding winners that had suddenly and unexpectedly been backed off the boards just before race time. As a trainer he does seem to have quite a few in and out performers which often win when well handicapped. I had a small saver on Don’t Push it just two weeks before the race at 65-1 on Betfair. On the day I was stunned at the amount of money for it and it being backed down to 7-1 favourite.
I know this is very contentious but I would rather take a punt on a horse he has had for a while and showed litle so far.
#20
February 21st, 2012 21:14
interesting to read ted walsh stating seabass might not come over because of the potential good ground, even though they will water. will he get HIS ground come National day?
#21
February 21st, 2012 21:22
thanks for the “strong gale” note about portrait king in the eider. I will be very interested to see how it goes having a similar killyglen pedigree. however eyre square looks a good thing to me.
#22
February 21st, 2012 21:31
the bobbyjo chase is a funny old race being a conditions race rather than a handicap. looking at the national weights alpha beat should really win but he may not be the horse to take out even if he does. i think the adjustments from the National weights are as below. oscar time and the midnight club finished 1st and 3rd last year pretty much to form I think. I will be watching this with interest.
alpha beat
black apalachi +1
psycho -3
seabass -7
on his own -8
rare bob -7
the midnight club -13
prince de beauchene -10
quiscover fontaine -12
#23
February 21st, 2012 21:43
does any1 know any places who do 5 places? i no bet365 do. just checked william hill and that does not. or ladbrokes dont. :/ hmmm
#24
February 21st, 2012 21:49
Just Bet365 for top 5
#25
February 21st, 2012 21:57
thort so. cheers. no wonder there prices are skinny. however id rather have money for 5th lol
#26
February 21st, 2012 22:30
Systems, do I have a long list on NM system? Question from page 2. Yes in fact I’ve done all 82 runners. Not gone into great detail with french bred, just what I see on racing post website.
1 Ballabriggs (weight & hurdles)
2 Black Apalachi (weight & hurdles)
3 Junior (not won over 27 furlongs or more or top 3 in any of the 5 major nationals & worn headgear this season)
4 Psycho (not won over 3 miles or more& not won over 27 furlongs or more or top 3 in any of 5 major nationals)
5 Cappa Bleu (novice within last 2 seasons & hurdles)
6 Treacle (not won at 27 furlongs or more or top 3 in any of the 5 major nationals & hurdles)
7 Roulez Cool (not finished in chase with at least 18 runners in & hurdles)
8 Uncle Junior (novice within last 2 seasons & won more than once this season)
9 Killyglen (not won over 27 furlongs or top 3 in any of the 5 major nationals & not finished in a chase with at least 18 runners in.)
10 Always Waining (not won over 27 furlongs or top 3 in any of the 5 major nationals & worn headgear this season)
11 Becauseicouldntsee (not won over 3 miles or more and not won over 27 furlongs or top 3 in any of the 5 major nationals)
12 Giles Cross (hurdles & won more than once in season)
13 Hello Bud (hurdles and RPR below 145)
14 Northern Alliance (not won at 27 furlongs or more or top 3 in any of the 5 major nationals & hurdles)
#27
February 21st, 2012 22:41
lets be honest.. some stats are just pure rubbish .. i.e top 3 in the season or 2 or more p/u etc. or french bred. or trainers and jocks having poor records. basic stats surely are:
stay?
jump?
class?
the horse does not know its age or where it was born or who its dad was etc. but a win a 3m will guide you to if it stays and placed at 3m4 or 4m is a good clue.
career falls tell u if it jumps well and its recent form or its rating or how it runs in other company tells u its class.
im sure we all look to deep for the stats lol.
#28
February 21st, 2012 22:48
paddy power use to only doing 4 now as far as i know .
#29
February 21st, 2012 22:55
killer stats….
http://www.grandnational.org.uk/trends.php
I have gone through the field and the results have produced the following shortlist…
Planet Of Sound
Chicago Grey
According To Pete
West End Rocker
Always Right
Rare Bob
The Midnight Club
Treacle
Niche Market
Killyglen
Always Waining
Backstage
Giles Cross
Vic Venturi
57 days since last run rule will be applied nearer the time.
#30
February 21st, 2012 23:07
David Pipe update…
“Junior ran well over hurdles the other day at Newbury, he got tired up the home straight and obviously everything leads to the Grand National. We’re hoping to run him before and that will be in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster or the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase or the Cheltenham Gold Cup.”
Interesting if he lines up in the Grimthorpe as thats where West End Rocker and Killyglen are declared too.
#31
February 21st, 2012 23:09
“grand national addict
February 21st, 2012 22:41
lets be honest.. some stats are just pure rubbish .. i.e top 3 in the season or 2 or more p/u etc. or french bred. or trainers and jocks having poor records. basic stats surely are:”
Sorry cant agree failed to finish twice in GN season is a clear stat as is 3 chase wins so far(I think someone said earlier that only one GN winner is ages [ a very very long time] has this profile). You have to use some stats or your short list will be just too long (and some of us are looking for early big price anti post bets). I am happy to use my more basic GN system this year which has a 8/10 record (and possibly 9/10 but i havnt got time to explain this bit). I dont expect to win evry year but bloody hell i deserve a win this year as does the Team!!
Failed to finsish twice means there may be somethiing wrong or the horse is very inconsistent etc etc. Clearly we all have to find our own prefered stats but this year i will have that winner!!
#32
February 21st, 2012 23:11
Mike N many thanks for the news on Junior.
#33
February 21st, 2012 23:12
Systemsman you will win this year, just back WER. lol
#34
February 21st, 2012 23:26
#27 GNA I could not agree more, the only STATS we need are STAMINA, will it see out the 4M 4F,can it JUMP those huge obstacles,also does it posess that Little bit of class to stay out of trouble…….the majority of bloggers on here look far,far,far to deep into STATS when the GN WINNER is stairing us right in the face.
#35
February 21st, 2012 23:34
…and, just as important, is the horse well-handicapped?
#36
February 21st, 2012 23:44
Some stats are rubbish, but if they have sound logic behind them then they’re not.
Take speedy’s strong finishes stat (a unique stat as far as I’m concerned) but I can see the logic in it. How many nationals have been won or lost on the elbow. A good finisher after a staying distance, speedy uses 3 miles plus, can be essential.
Age to the best age is 9. Through out history 9 years old have done better than any other age. This I think is because chasers are at the maximum development at 9.
While stats which include price are ludicrous.
#37
February 21st, 2012 23:49
money down so far on synchronised calgary bay and prince de beauchene and wer two or three more nearer the time me thinks
#38
February 21st, 2012 23:51
You’ve got to be aware though that not all stats will apply even with good logic behind them, you can get the odd year where certain stats can be broken, but I don’t see this as a reason to ditch them if the others apply. Nick’s approach made me think that we don’t need to have all the stats apply just most of them.
#39
February 22nd, 2012 00:19
I know some people are concerned about horses bred in France, but for a moment let’s consider another breeding angle. Horses breed in Germany. Which according to Racing Post data is Fair Along.
According to Nick (on the flat at least) horse’s breed in Germany are better than most other countries in europe. Take this year’s arc de triumph winner Danedream who was also breed in Germany as an example.
#40
February 22nd, 2012 00:38
I have never paid attention to the french bred stat. Purely because, when looking in previous years, one french name kept popping along into my head – L’Aventure. That thing stayed longer than the mother in law – albeit after being tailed off for a long part of most of her races! She did actually stay on in her grand national – although was a fence behind for most of it!
#41
February 22nd, 2012 00:45
I think my new system will be the most comprehensive system ever undertaken, which has taken into account every single stat ever thought of, I have spent days on it and so far each horse of the 27 I had on my short list + 8 other main fancies of Vote Blog 21 different stats for/against and I am still working on it.I have been back through all of Initial Blog (1) and re-read all 567 posts and taken every single stat, you guys have given and applied it to the horses. I still have all of Initial Blog (2) I think 800 odd posts to re-read and when I am finished I will give you my findings, if it doesn’t short list the winner I don’t know what will.
One of the stats I want to add in is Topspeed ratings which I have already asked you guys for, does nobody know where to find them. As I don’t?
#42
February 22nd, 2012 00:50
Incidentally my aim is to find the horses that have the most postive stats or the most negative against their name then one stat doesn’t become as important as the whole, thought it was funny when I posted I couldn’t see your last few posts arguing about whether a stat was important or not. Oh well it’s a lot of work but I am enjoying it.
#43
February 22nd, 2012 02:13
What is this country like…swimming in the bl**dy stuff up here (rain) and they are watering at Kempton and Chelt???lol
And u can betcha life come Aintree we will have had 3 weeks of no rain and fllod darn sarf….
Sheesh!!
Still at least Seabass has alternate engagements but if it doesnt want good ground the plot might fall apart…but its been fun (and correct re the info have imparted) so far…
#44
February 22nd, 2012 02:20
Re stats and trends:
Well they become stats and trends as they hold up over the years but it has to be said we didnt find the last 3 winners on here….
I think form is ignored as people still stick with a horse when it has been a parish and a half behind other GN entries in preps and quote wins of this value and that grade from 18 and 24 months ago….
I know form doesnt always hold up and GN is a different test but by enlarge you dont get big reversals…but I would far rather have a horse showing form and a promising staying on 5th (for example) than something out the back/PU in its last few preps…
#45
February 22nd, 2012 08:30
Red Alligator when I’ve time I will post top speed for you, as I subscribe to racing post. All the top speed will be unadjusted ones not adjusted to the weight, as I assume this is what you mean. They will also be the animal’s best.
#46
February 22nd, 2012 09:09
The stats I’ve been putting up they had the 1st and 2nd last year on the shortlist. So its just to see if they get the winner this time as well.
#47
February 22nd, 2012 09:10
RA
The Racing Post website shows each horse’s best TS (Topspeed rating) for free.
1. Click on ‘Cards’
2. Then ‘Big Race Entries’
3. Then ‘John Smiths GN’
4. Then select any horse and its career-best topspeed figure will be on the right hand side of the pop-up box (which will open once you’ve clicked the horse’s name) above the form in the ‘Race Record’ tab (for example Synchronised’s is 151 and Ballabriggs’ is 155).
When you select a horse through the racecard you’ll have access to all other entries through the drop-down box beside the horse’s name in the pop-up box
This is far easier than having to type each horse’s name in the ‘Search’ facility
#48
February 22nd, 2012 09:11
In Grand National terms I reckon Seabass might, just might be Ted Walsh’s new Roc de Prince!
#49
February 22nd, 2012 09:22
Like a couple of others, i’m keeping it simple this year with regards my selections. I am using form, breeding and basic information about previous winners to find horses that answer ‘yes’ to all or most of the following questions:
Do they show an overall level of form that indicates that they are good enough to win a National?
Can they be competitive in a handicap chase of their mark?
Will they get the trip?
Will they take to the fences/get round?
Are they mature enough for the National?
Are they experienced enough for the National?
Will they cope with the massive field?
Will they handle the likely going on the day (slow side of good)?
I know some of this is subjective but if I can get a shortlist of 8-10 that answer ‘yes’ to all or most of the above, then I think the winner will be on it.
#50
February 22nd, 2012 09:44
I wasn’t a stat person when I arrived on the GN blog scene bit I have to a certain extent been converted. I can see its merits. There are certain trends that simply cannot be ignored. However, it should be a union of several factors i.e. trends, form (incorporating ground preferences), pedigree and good old gut instinct.
#51
February 22nd, 2012 09:44
but not bit!
#52
February 22nd, 2012 10:00
The problem with stats is that to a certain extent thay can be subjective i.e. one person can place more emphasis on one stat than the next person. This is why WER comes out on top of some lists whilst Rare Bob comes out on top of mine. The truth is I probably would not have considered Rare Bob had he not scored so well in what I perceive to be important criteria. We shall see.
#53
February 22nd, 2012 11:00
I am about to start on a mamouth 2nd check of all main runners against the “Basic GN System” and a few other key trends. Will report back in two/three days i hope. I’am sure WER will be in there whatever!
I will probably need to cut the list of 11/12 to a more managable 6 with perhaps a couple of stakes savers thrown in. Which key trends to keep and which to discard for this shorter list?? (a 1//2/3 this season must stay in as must 3 chase wins thats for sure).
#54
February 22nd, 2012 11:14
Hi A&SM
I like Fair along as a 66/1 shot. I;ve backed & on my Top 6. Hasn’t won a 3 mile chase but Highly tried, Great hurdle & flat form & was still in mix when U/R at last in 30F chase at Pnch last Yr won by Uncle Junior. Its now 11 lbs better off. I think there are worse bets!
#55
February 22nd, 2012 11:16
P.S. Hobbs hasn’t confirmed as a runner & wants to wait till after its next race.
#56
February 22nd, 2012 11:35
Guys still wading through Initial Blog 2 up to Post 350.
Loads of interesting facts learnt and this time noted and being added to my system.
By the way YCROATIA Post 320 you thought Hold On Julio or Prince De Beachene would be favourite after the weights whereas I said Junior. One to me
Also around the 350 post I found a link somebody gave for Sportinglife.com and entered it this morning to see what blogger wanted us to read, only to find it is updated and some INTERESTING things on there go in today and have a look. David Pipe seems to be considering a Gold Cup bid for Junior and thinks the 4 week gap enough for main target GN or is that me reading to much into his interview. Seabass comments from Willie Mullins in his interview. Also guys Dessie Hughes talking about his talking horse hurdler MINSK first hurle race looming this weekend.
I have already availed myself of the 7/1 Triumph price as I have been told he is very special the best Dessie has ever had, and if he romps home on Saturday he will be a short priced fav. for Triumph.
Thanks Aldaniti & Pablo re.Topspeed figures will have a look later,trying to finish Blog 2.
#57
February 22nd, 2012 11:37
I think that You guys that are questioning how deep we look into the stats have a valid point i have long thought that some look too deeply, it’s one of the reasons that i have started late this year and have taken it back to basics……i remember a time i was shouted down when i said that comply or die had a great chance in the year that he won his national, i was told that horses that wear blinkers don’t win nationals and horses that had good form ( he had just won the eider) don’t fair well in the national either, which is plain crazy, blinkers are there to help not hinder and i would sooner my national selection be in good form rather than bad.
With the french bred thing, i can understand that being french bred could have its dissadvantages in life
but Mon mome put this theory to bed, it’s the very reason some of us crossed Mon mome off our lists and missed out on a 100/1 winner (we should not forget that mon mome was a perfect stats horse beside the French bred thing) and a poor last run at Haydock which threw us off the scent.
And the pre xmas odds or odds when weights are announced stat,what bearing does that have on a horses ability, it’s very true that come weights day the winner might have been 33/1 or less or whatever the criteria is but this is as a result of the winner having to have a bit of class so it’s price will be within this bracket and as a result of the bookies being tight with their odds, sure it’s a stat, but a stat that has no real sway on the ability of the winner it’s a man made stat,realistically a horse has no sense of it’s price, man makes it’s price in what he judges it’s ability to be.
So i think back to basics, keep it simple and we should have a small list with hopefully the winner upon it.
Oh….. and by the way did you guys know that the last 15 winners of the national were in their horse box and fast asleep by 11pm the night before? Ballagriggs being the exception he went to sleep at 11.15pm
#58
February 22nd, 2012 11:38
when i looked at stats some fitted certain horses and others didnt , some negated others for example (and this didnt happen) you may come across a french bred horse that has won over say 3m 2f so for me the latter would put a red pen through the first , it is subjective not as to the stats as they are clearly there but as to which order of importance you rank them.
and on subjectivity i choose to follow 2 or 3 people on blogs that I look at otherwise you can end up backing every runner in a race! i have done this since 2008 when i found this blog and come up with 2 winners and 2 places in 4 years thanks to those that know a lot more than i do lol.
#59
February 22nd, 2012 12:02
What did they have for breakfast, puzzled?
#60
February 22nd, 2012 12:05
Mike; I would never ignore Fair Along! Never ceases to surprise him and missed him winning a hurdle race at Wetherby when we were there the other year. Was staying on really well in a chase in Ireland [I think] when he had a fall. Quirky little guy who could really take to the place [and is always in bed by 10 O'clock...]
#61
February 22nd, 2012 12:05
…surprise me not him!
#62
February 22nd, 2012 12:07
#55; just read. Hmmm. Think will still have a small ew now just in case. I really must get my ante post bets in this week before all the weekend races.
#63
February 22nd, 2012 12:34
Maureen. Victor chandler & Stan James offering the 66-1.
The Punch race was his first chase outside Class 1. He may not have won over 3 miles yet BUT highly tried, low weight & 3rd in Hennessy – not bad!
#64
February 22nd, 2012 12:49
Re #58
I’m the same. As much as I sometimes bicker with him I rather enjoy reading pablo’s comments. I think his posts are always worth a read. There’s quite a bit of donkey work that goes on unheralded here – so I offer my thanks to all those that shed new light, add and subtract scores and help make the journey an enjoyable and informative one.
#65
February 22nd, 2012 13:50
Massini’s Maguire 6lb well in for GN if he takes his chance, RPR158, RPR>GNOR10. Does anyone know his best left handed RPR? Thanks in advance.
Giles Cross also 6lb well in,RPR149,RPR>GNOR11
Been looking at non finishes in chases, falls/ur’s/p-ups(taken out slipped ups/brought downs etc from %) think Miinnehoma might have done this at some point, (where for art thou?)
and completed chases and wins.
Party Politics 3 nonfin/ 11 comp.ch/ 5 wins
non fin 23% / comp.ch wins 45%
Miinnehoma 1 / 8 / 4 / 11% / 50%
Royal Athlete 3 / 12 / 6 / 34% / 50%
Rough Quest 4 / 19 / 5 / 17% / 26%
Lord Gyllene 0 / 10 / 3 / 0% / 30%
Earth Summit 4 / 21 / 7 / 12% / 34%
Bobbyjo 1 / 15 / 5 / 6% / 34%
Papillon 0 / 24 / 6 / 0% / 25%
Red Marauder 2 / 11 / 5 / 15% / 45%
Bindaree 2 / 13 / 3 / 13% / 23%
Monty’s Pass 3 / 38 / 7 / 7% / 18%
Amberleigh House 2 / 34 / 5 / 5% / 15%
Hedgehunter 1 / 10 / 3 / 9% / 30%
Numbersixvalverde 0 / 9 / 3 / 0% / 34%
Silver Birch 3 / 10 / 4 / 23% / 40%
Comply Or Die 4 / 10 / 4 / 29% / 40%
Mon Mome 3 / 21 / 5 / 13% / 24%
Dont Push It 3 / 9 / 4 / 25% / 44%
Ballabriggs 1 / 11 / 4 / 8% / 36%
#66
February 22nd, 2012 13:53
does any1 know why all the runners / entries are not on the runners list on the site? or on the grand national form page.
#67
February 22nd, 2012 14:00
Roc DP??
see no sense in the comment…it was one of Martin Pipes mob handed entries in the 90′s…had no form coming in to the race (if it ever had) and ran accordingly and somehow managed to stay on its feet in ground that would actually suit Seabass to a tee…..so absolutely zero to compare…
No sense at all there…;)
#68
February 22nd, 2012 14:17
He was Ted Walsh’s first National runner and had won the Thyestes. Thought you would know that given your connections!
#69
February 22nd, 2012 14:17
re: #59
Well Maureen i know Ballagriggs last year had oven chips…..and obviously they were McCains
#70
February 22nd, 2012 14:55
Roc Du Prince was with Martin Pipe when I remember it in Minnehommas GN and also ran in the void GN I think…..
I must ask the connection but as his g/f (who works there) is only 19 and worked there 2 years dont think she would have been born then….ho hum…
So still making no sense …I mean why not compare to Papillon who was Ted W’s other ‘plot’ horse….?
Of course very selective ….figures….
#71
February 22nd, 2012 14:57
So if we make comparisons with all the duffers trainers have sent to the GN then Paul N and Alan K’s (for instance) fancies this year can be compared to …..feel free to choose from any old rubbish they have sent out before and come no where….
Nope still making zero sense….
#72
February 22nd, 2012 14:59
And it isnt rocket science but the best way to get up to date info from a yard is not asking a trainer about a horse he sent out nearly 20 years ago….doh!!
#73
February 22nd, 2012 15:01
Up to 500 ON blOG 2. Exhausted!! but will pough on. Anyway I diverted to see if any interesting blogs on (3) since am. Beginning to think some of you are losing it with recent blogs.
Just read Racing & Football Outlook
Aintree ante-post by Nick Watts he tips Cappa Bleu ,West End Rocker & e.w.Fair along.
Trainer File Philip Hobbs – Fair Along fairly exposed but he might go for the 3m handicap chase on the first day of festival, a race in which he was fourth last year. “He’s so consistent around Cheltenham he loves it but will probably find one or two a bit better. He’s also in GN 10st 4lb but will decide after next run, which will be the Veteran’s handicap chase at Newbury”. (HOLD YOUR ANTE-POST BETS FOLKS NOT A CERTAIN RUNNER).
Planet Of Sound – “He’s in really good nick, the plan with him for some time has been the National ans he has 11st 5lb which was to be expected. He could go for The Racing Post Chase at Kempton but it depends on the ground. He’s a better horse on better ground and it’s all about Aintree at the moment. Punchestown is in the back of our minds as he’s won there before, but it obviously depends on what happens at Aintree first.”
I think that sounds EXTREMELY POSITIVE FOR GN main aim,in form,likes better ground,not concerned re.weight.
Very tempted to get on at 33/1 with Lads as this one at no.3 on my top six list
#74
February 22nd, 2012 15:03
If Massinis Maguire is up for sale and has had training problems, I do wonder if Saturday’s race was his ‘National’? Still remember the National preview the night before the race, when Papillon’s price started coming in like a tsunami. The whole of Ireland was on him!
#75
February 22nd, 2012 15:59
The Veterens chase next week will be interesting with The Niche & Fair Along. I fancy both for GN.
Fingers crossed for Fair Along taking part in GN.
Surprised Hobbs wants to run him twice in a couple of weeks ie veterens & Family at Chelt.
#76
February 22nd, 2012 16:16
Bovril, no need to be too defensive. Right now, I don’t like Seabass, that’s all. However, I may change my opinion if Our Island runs a decent race in the NH Chase. Turtle Island, in my opinion, does not strike me as a stallion that can produce the requisite robustness of a true marathon staying chaser. There’s no doubt he’s produced some decent types some of which have won over three and slightly further but I’ve yet to see anything from any of them to suggest that the most extreme test is within this progeny’s grasp. You only have to look at the statistics of Turtle Island over fences (if you are willing to go through them all or pay Weatherby’s to do it for you) that they, by and large, excel between 2m – 2m6f. The odd one goes in over 3 miles such as Dance Island, Bensalem & Glenquest (who I thought would be the one if any were to get further) but it doesn’t follow that the further they go the better they are. I put this down to Turtle Island not truly staying a mile on the Flat (I have already mentioned his 2000 Guineaus triumph on here).
#77
February 22nd, 2012 16:18
Testing
#78
February 22nd, 2012 16:23
Hi RA.
I think Fair Along with 10-4 & 5/6 prep runs would have a much better chance in the GN than Planet of sound with 11-5 % 2 prep runs. i’m not convinced this is good value at allat 33/1 & he would be carrying over the 12lbs stat ceiling above bottom weight. Hope Hobbs makes the right decision to run Fair along!
#79
February 22nd, 2012 16:30
Fair Along is very tiny, though. I’d've thought Ireland would have been better for Planet of Sound [the only time I've ever had a winning bet whilst watching a race in a bookies; Denman's race if I remember right, which is why I was at the bookies watching it].
#80
February 22nd, 2012 16:38
just out of curiosity for myself anyone know where i can find out :
A. the size of past winners ie. how many hands etc.
and
B. the same info for this years runners?
thanks kindly.
#81
February 22nd, 2012 16:49
Fair along is quite small. Battleship was apparently the smallest winner; we went through this a couple of months ago when dicussing Carruthers. He is a good jumper, quite nimble & size isn’t everything so they tell me!
He made a couple of mistakes early on in the Hennessy & dropped to last for the first circuit. Progress 5 out he was the strongest finisher in the field, 8 to 10 lengths behind POS coming to the last & would have passed it in another few strides. If it could have held its place early on I’m sure it would have won this.
#82
February 22nd, 2012 16:49
psycho an unseated in a 2m 4 at punchestown
#83
February 22nd, 2012 16:58
Finished re-reading all of Initial Blog (2) all 858 messages and now have all material I need to add stats I have written down to my main list for each horse.That’s over a 1,000 posts I have re-read this week I must be totally potty. Onwards & Upwards ! Still a lot of hard work to do to bring together all stats collected.Even I can’t wait to see who comes out on top.
#84
February 22nd, 2012 17:01
Fair Along looks like a 3m 4f horse rather than a 4m 4f horse to me. He looks good when staying on past beaten horses but not sure he will see the maximum trip out.
Having said that I do like a bit of German influence. Can everyone remember Sudden Shock winning the NH Chase?
#85
February 22nd, 2012 17:19
ST.
In the Hennessy it was racing past horses trying to challenge. Normally it races prominantly but with Nina carberry on for the first time it seemed happy to lose its prominant position & hunt round at the back for well over a circuit.
For most of its carreer they would appear to have thought it was a 2 mile horse so who knows re 4.5 miles round Aintree!
#86
February 22nd, 2012 18:27
HARD TO IGNORE RECENT STAT:
8 out of 12 (first 4 home last 3 years) were over 11st.
WOW !!
#87
February 22nd, 2012 18:42
11st 6lbs + is the key stat now. That will be broken for sure but until it is like the 11st stat was you will have to give it credence. If you are going to suddenly consider french breds to win just because a 100/1 shot won once then you have to ditch 11st as a mark. For my mind a french bred needs either course form or class. Has there been any placed who have not either run round the course (clan royal won topham and becher) or ran to gold cup level (mon mome, my will). I would be interested if anyone can give me examples of french breds not fitting this bill who placed or came near. Maybe a french bred who has won over 3m or is 7-8 years old? l’aventure stayed forever as a french bred but he was far too slow to even consider for the national.
#88
February 22nd, 2012 18:45
RA.
Good point. Personally I look at how well handicapped I think they are & try to find form lines via horses they’ve raced against that have lines of form to others in the race. Its not precise but gives me a feel for its chances. I’ve stated before that I believe the weight per distance ratio is exagerated in a race like the GN and therefore when the handicapper increases a horses weight by 5lbs for winning 5 lengths the 5lbs has a much greater effect. In the last two years I don’t think the horses lower in the weights were that WELL HANDICAPPED & both Ballabriggs & Don’t push it clearly were. Hiding there lights under a bushel prior to GN?
#89
February 22nd, 2012 18:49
Sorry – their lights…
please forgive typos & !spelling
#90
February 22nd, 2012 18:49
Pablo : Re.your stats on Dosage I can’t go back to find your post again. was the Extremely Positive dosage eg.Killyglen the best to have or the worst.
Likewise Extremely Negative eg.Chicago Grey
best to have or worst to have ?
Sorry to be a pain but I have listed all on a sheet of paper, but forgot to write down which was good from Grand National winner point of view. Ta!
#91
February 22nd, 2012 18:53
RA Killyglen WAS BEST
#92
February 22nd, 2012 19:03
Yes, so Extremely Positive is what you want.
Your mention of Chicago Grey RA brings up my problem with him. His dosage figures of 1-2-5-0-0 don’t shout Stayer and TS of 132 don’t yell Speed. But it has won over 32f and had good performances at Cheltenham – often a clue on whether they’ll handle Aintree.
Another negative – his three HCAP races have yielded results of 8/UR/7 so a zero% success rate to date. But I can’t bring myself to red pen him. Any clarifying thoughts on Chicago Grey anybody?
#93
February 22nd, 2012 19:05
Like Mike a try to look at how well handicapped a horse is relative to others and their general level of form rather than on the actual weight they are carrying. Light weight does not necessarily mean well handicapped and big weight does not necessarily mean badly handicapped. That said, over marathon trips I think absolute weight does become more of an issue. It’s one thing fora horse to shoulder 11-10 and give weight all round in a 2m handicap hurdle, but doing the same in a 4m4f race where the horse has to leave the ground 30 times is another matter. The further they go and the more they have to jump the more difficult it becomes to carry and concede the weight.
#94
February 22nd, 2012 19:09
RA not my dosage posts – that’s be AS&M
#95
February 22nd, 2012 19:23
“dragonman
February 22nd, 2012 16:38
just out of curiosity for myself anyone know where i can find out :
A. the size of past winners ie. how many hands etc.
and
B. the same info for this years runners?
thanks kindly.”
Me too – be very useful as would the weight of the horse each time it ran and a proper assessment of going (i.e. Good to Firm for Long Run’s Gold Cup!!)
Some of that data is available in countries like Australia I think
Sadly in this country racing is all about ‘personality’ so we up with endless drivel, puerile presenters and little meaningful information
#96
February 22nd, 2012 19:38
Aldaniti & Spartan Missile
Please read Post 89 sent it to Pablo by mistake.
Apologies, suffering from very acute bloggitis!!
#97
February 22nd, 2012 19:42
Lets look at Fair Along mentioned by a few today):
Positive:
OR141 Ok but low
GN Weight 10.04 OK
OR/RPR +19 very good
3 chase wins – good
3rd at 27f this season in key race – very very good.
Placed won chases 9/15 – good
Chase/Hurdle 24/41 – good
TS155 – very good
Negative:
Last chase win Dec 2006 – very very bad
Longest chase win 19f – very very bad
Over 30f “challenged 2 out, ridden and headed approaching last where mistake and unseated rider”, over 28f “soon weakened” over 26f “weakened last”.
High milage 26x hurdle, 15xchase + others
Conclusion;
A well tried runner (over tried?)who has no win at 20f or more in a chase. Good hurdler but may not make 4.5 miles on current evidence aginst the big boys. Likes Newbury/Cheltenham and fair form at Aintree. A profile for the winner that dosnt quite fit however long i look at it. Looks attractive on the surface but dig a little deeper and i cant see him staying all the 4.5 miles (a bit like Niche Market)at the speed the best runners will go.
On my GN system Fair Along has 2 stars – his price is currrently too big (as was on weights day)at 40/1-66/1, no current quote of 33/1 or less (a big negative).
Views?
#98
February 22nd, 2012 20:01
Hi Systemsman.
Good analysis. However, I backed him at Punches & he didn’t look beaten or tiring to me when he fell. I’ve seen him headed and fight back to win before. Bar that race all his other 3 ml+ races were class 1 & if he had won any he would be in the 11 st bracket. He jumped the last like a stag in the Hennessy & finished very strongly 27F. Only 15 chase runs & only the last 6 at 3 miles says could be unexposed at longer distances. plenty of top class form at 3 miles over hurdles. I’m not sure they realised what they had initially re handling long distance races & had been plenty successful over shorter. Ran well in camridgeshire 2.2mls flat behind leg spinner.
No 66/1 shot if he runs and handles Aintree & maybe that bit of class at bottom of weights!
Views?
#99
February 22nd, 2012 20:10
Ps. If he were to win the Veterens he would hit all my trends & I don’t see price as an issue. I backed Silver Birch at 300/1 (admitadly) on Betfair & it didn’t stop him! If he won at newbury his price would quickly tumble
#100
February 22nd, 2012 20:12
Systemsman I think that profile of Fair Along was the best I have seen on this Blog in terms of all the info.a person would need if they were considering a bet on him. Go and have a large glass of wine you deserve it. I for one agree with you and will not be backing him.
#101
February 22nd, 2012 20:27
RA
All about opinions.
Latest Chewlt 26F Beaten 12.5 lengths by Shake-10lbs better off.
Chelt 28F beaten 37 lengths- first run of season, Hobbs stables hopelessly out of form.
Chelt 25F Didn’t enjoy, tailed off. staying on at finish to finish fourth
N/bury 24F 1 length second to Noland level weights.
Hennessy & punches already covered.
Not that shabby I think
#102
February 22nd, 2012 20:34
Final point on Fair along – Beat don’t push it 6 lengths giving away 12lbs in 3ml hcap hurdle at chelt.
#103
February 22nd, 2012 20:48
Thanks for the reply Pablo shame we cant get that info.
#104
February 22nd, 2012 20:52
Sorry final, final on this.
B/bury 24F Was 1 length third to Noland. 3/4 length behind What a Friend in second
#105
February 22nd, 2012 21:20
mike campo, i like him as a decent e/w 66′s bet, you could do alot worse of a few quid gamble at this stage. by the way mike, i own a commercial vehicle retail outlet, do you want a salesman job.
#106
February 22nd, 2012 21:22
Fair Along looks ok on 10-4 I agree. The most telling piece of form is his attempt over 3m 6f at Punchestown. He’d had a good break before that race and was fresh. He was bang there at the last but had relinquished his lead (one he had held for some time and cut out a lot of the late donkey work) and would still have been beaten by Uncle Junior but by how far we will never know. Whether it would have been by the 10lbs between them who knows. On 10-4 will he feel he has been let loose? Maybe. On his three runs over fences carrying below 11st he has form figures of 113 the latter being the Hennessy. He seems to like Aintree as well as Wetherby another flat track. You must factor in his jockey. Who will it be? Johnson or Flint? Looks like Flint to me. Is that a negative? Not sure.
#107
February 22nd, 2012 21:24
I like Fair Along as a horse. Love my horses who come from the clouds. I can’t see him winning at all. However, if he does run, I will be snapping up any bookies offering top 5 on him!
#108
February 22nd, 2012 21:26
I know he is not popular for the national at all on this blog, but I have availed myself of a bit of the 50/1 available on The Package. One of my favourites anyway and, contrary to majority belief on here, i thought he was running OK in 2010 national after a few early errors.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/02/22/manual_115008.html&BID=465
#109
February 22nd, 2012 21:42
R.A I categories the dosage into 9 groups to make things easier. From Extremely Positive (the best, in theory) to Extremely Negative (the worst).
I must add that any which are dosage weak automatically get put in Extremely Negative but dosage can be overcome.
The way I used dosage is after every other possible statistic or way of looking at the race.
Those in extremely positive area might not be best suited in other areas.
#110
February 22nd, 2012 21:51
Hi Mandie.
Very percepive!
I’ve held several positions in IT companies as sales execs, sales managers & sales directors including some big names like GE. These days I operate as a consulting sales strategist to assess & improve sales effectiveness; when I’m not blogging that is!
Sorry about this inappropriate advertising from me everyone.
#111
February 22nd, 2012 22:03
Hi team, just a quick note I’m lucky enough to be going down to Paul Nichols stable on Sunday for an open day (despite the well publicised problems this week). Is there anything that anyone wants me to ask him (if I get the opportunity). He is going to do a Chelt preview hour for us so hopefully i might get the chance to ask him some Grand National info if anyone has anything pressing you want to know.
#112
February 22nd, 2012 22:07
RA Here are some speed rating figures which are not adjusted to the weight.
Abbeybraney 143
According To Pete 139
Alfa Beat 148
Always Right 138
Always waining 149
Another Palm 100
Any Currency 113
Apt Approach 125
Arbor Supreme 145
BackStage 117
Ballabriggs 155
Ballyvesey 95
#113
February 22nd, 2012 22:18
Some more speed figures.
Becauseicouldntsee 122
Black Apalachi 161
Blazing Tempo 147
Burton Port 168
Calgary Bay 148
Cappa Bleu 142
Chicago Grey 132
Cooldine 149
Cresent Island 149
Deep Purple 153
Fair Along 155
Giles Cross 131
Hector’s Choice 116
Hello Bud 129
Hold On Julio 119
In Compliance 167
#114
February 22nd, 2012 22:35
Speed figures. Waste of time.
#115
February 22nd, 2012 22:40
You lot must be rich. The number of times I’ve read “can’t see him winning” followed by ” I’ve got to bet on it” is scary. Lol
#116
February 22nd, 2012 22:42
Billymag
Yes I have. Can you ask what has happened to Valentine Vic? Plus how good is Rocky Creek?
#117
February 22nd, 2012 22:45
Billymag – Can you ask Mr Nicholls if Crack Away Jack is heading for the Grand Annual?
Ta very much
#118
February 22nd, 2012 22:49
#86 baggy352
… If you are going to suddenly consider french breds to win just because a 100/1 shot won once then you have to ditch 11st as a mark. For my mind a french bred needs either course form or class. Has there been any placed who have not either run round the course (clan royal won topham and becher) or ran to gold cup level (mon mome, my will). I would be interested if anyone can give me examples of french breds not fitting this bill who placed or came near.
Encore un Peu, Mely Moss, Blowing Wind, Royal Auclair. Daresay there might be a few others if you look back far enough.
#119
February 22nd, 2012 22:50
Ask Mr Nicholls to give you a list off all the horses with the virus and then let us know.
#120
February 22nd, 2012 23:04
No National questions for Mr Nicholls Billymag, but can you ask him I should put on e/w on an Al Ferof & Zarkandar e/w double!
#121
February 22nd, 2012 23:11
mely moss had run well over national fences, royal auclair in the gold cup. so that is two places out of how many runners?? i’ll take on any french bred with one of the following as well : 11st 6 or more, 13, no class 1 win, no 3m win, a novice! just like I did with backstage last year.
#122
February 22nd, 2012 23:22
mon mome (no chance on current form and never fancied it to place this year) and le beau bai (needs heavy) i would also take on leaving only prince de beauchene to uphold the french breds. it is actually pretty easy to write most of them off it seems.
#123
February 22nd, 2012 23:30
#113
Mike N
February 22nd, 2012 22:35
Speed figures. Waste of time.
Hi Mike, all I’m doing is what Red Alligator requested. Nothing more.
#124
February 22nd, 2012 23:32
Must admit now we have had a French bred winner(and i did say it was possible at the time) as someone who looks at trends (not as a slave but to assist)i doubt we will have another one so soon.The trends say no. I would be happy to have a small wager on this with any high street bookie offering odds.
#125
February 22nd, 2012 23:45
More speed ratings
Junior 152
Killyglen 155
King Fontaine 110
Le Beau Bai 138
Little Josh 143
Massini’s Maguire 150
Midnight Chase 153
Midnight Haze 111
Minella Theatre 105
Mon Mome 155
Neptune Collonges 173
Neptune Equester 116
Niche Market 155
Northern Alliance 146
On His Own 122
Organisedconfusion 114
#126
February 22nd, 2012 23:47
Systems how would you or anyone feel about a seven year old winner, considering we’ve not had one since 1940
#127
February 22nd, 2012 23:57
More speed ratings
Our Island 129
Pearlysteps 121
Planet Of Sound 159
Postmaster 135
Prince De Beauchene 145
Psycho 135
Qhilimar 128
Quaintitativeeasing 152
Quel Esprit 114
Quiscover Fontaine 150
Rare Bob 156
Roberto Goldback 140
Roulez Cool 120
Saddlers Storm 115
Schindler’s Gold 120
Scotsirish 162
#128
February 23rd, 2012 00:09
More speed ratings
Seabass 110
Shakalackaboomboom 122
Shakervilz 113
Smoking Aces 116
Some Target 106
State Of Play 160
Stewarts House 136
Sunnyhillboy 145
Swing Bill 142
Synchronised 151
Tartak 154
Tatenen 153
Tharawaat 121
The Midnight Club 138
The Package 143
#129
February 23rd, 2012 00:14
Final lot
Treacle 135
Uncle Junior 132
Vic Venturi 150
Viking Blond 125
Weird Al 150
West End Rocker 146
Wymott 142
Hope this is the data you require Red Alligator.
#130
February 23rd, 2012 00:25
Thank you very much Aldaniti for all that work very much appreciated.
Shame on you Mike!
#131
February 23rd, 2012 01:34
Systemsman #123
Just tried some statistical analysis for French-breds in the National between 1994 and 2011 – 1994 marks a convenient cut-off point before which French-bred runners at Aintree were few and far between (only 2 in the 1980s as far as I know – Royal Exile and Jivago de Neuvy).
682 runners of which 126 are French-bred, 556 not. 9 French-bred and 63 others have won or placed. You would expect 13 French-breds, 59 others to have won or placed over this period – the difference is well within the range that could be expected by chance.
(Can’t comment on the likelihood of French-breds winning, essentially as not enough races have been run during this period for the statistical test I was using.)
#132
February 23rd, 2012 01:35
mon mone might have been french bred but he was trained over here, a french bred horse and a french trained horse over there is a different story, not trained for extreme distances..
#133
February 23rd, 2012 02:20
Speed ratings may be unconvincing on their own but coupled with dosage (stamina ratings) they help highlight the leading contenders.
But I am with Systems in saying the 10 chase requirement is a dangerous trend to follow. With trainers protecting marks these days I would think a minimum of 8 should be allowed (with half being handicaps) or for allowances to be made as per the animal involved.
On that, Hold On Julio is holding a very low profile on here, esp as he was highlighted as a danger by a well known race horse owner.
#134
February 23rd, 2012 07:30
Hi KD.
Re your French bred stats.
Many of those French breds were to the fore in the market due to their excellent 3-3.5 mile form, & therefor making them poor value over the years
#135
February 23rd, 2012 07:41
French breds – I am not saying immediately discount them but check out any 2m trend races. trends will tell you to take a second look at french breds because “they are bred for speed”. Use it in combination with the profile of those previously placed or won and you have from the 9 between 1994 and 2011 the following (in fact it is 7 really)
2009 mon mome – class to run in GC
2009 my will – class for GC
2006 clan royal – aintree specialist. previously placed in GN
2005 royal auclair – GC
2004 clan royal – experience of fences
2002 blowing wind – previously placed in GN
2001 blowing win – this one hadnt won over 3 miles before so would have failed.
2000 – mely moss – experience of fences
1996 – encore un peu – would have missed this one.
so you would have missed two places in 18 years and none since 2001 after which the race has become classier.
#136
February 23rd, 2012 08:01
Notice all the 25-1 being cut by bookies, only boyles left, on Cappa Bleu. Presumably because it was tipped on Betfair site from some wizzkid from timeform. Seems to have ignored form; 15 lengths behind Giles cross in WN & only 1 lbs better off,beaten 4 lengths by Massini’s the other day & no better off. Only six chase starts & by Strong Gale – now there is value!
#137
February 23rd, 2012 09:44
That hard to ignore stat, 8 of the first four home in the last three years- needs a bit of balance I reckon;
In Mon Mome’s year, bottom weight was 10-5, so Mon Mome 11-0,carried 9lbs more than b/w
Comply Or Die 11-6,15lbs
My Will 11-4, 13lbs
State Of Play 11-2, 11lbs
-16 horses carried 11st+ that day, average OR/weight(mean,median) was 148/11-0
In Dont Push It’s year b/w was 10-5,
Don’t Push It 11-5,14bs more than b/w
Black Apalachi 11-6, 15lbs
State Of Play 10-11, 6lbs
Big Fella Thanks 10-12, 7lbs
-19 horses carried 11st+ that day, average OR/weight was 147/10-13
In Ballabriggs year b/w was 10-2
Ballabriggs 11-0, 12lbs more than b/w
Oscar Time 10-9, 7lbs
Don’t Push It 11-10, 22lbs
State Of Play 10-6, 4lbs
-10 horses carried 11st+ that day, average OR/weight was 145/10-9
No horse since Sundew 1957, other than Rummy, has carried greater than 19lbs more than bottom weight.. if b/w this year is 10-0 that would be 11-5.
No horse since Corbiere 1983, has carried greater than 14lbs more than bottom weight .. if b/w this year is 10-0 that would be 11-0
Only Rhyme N Reason/Dont Push It in the last 27 GN’s have carried greater than 12lbs more than bottom weight.
None of these stats mean that the winner will not carry a big weight this year of course but it does offer some perspective I reckon.
#138
February 23rd, 2012 10:02
Kedi intereting re.French Breds. Out of interest if info to hand, of the 9 winners what were their ages?
If info.not to hand don’t bother.
Mike not saying it’s a contributing factor to Cappa Bleu price but don’t forget that Nick Watts tipped it up as well so any people who follow him blindly may have gone out and backed it yesterday.
#139
February 23rd, 2012 10:51
For all thsoe doing research these are the pages you need with the direct links on one page:
Racing Post GN Card:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546536&r_date=2012-04-14&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_
Wiki – past winners (with direct racing post links):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Grand_National_winners
The more we have working on this the better but remember not to overwork it (those that have done this like me know what i mean).
#140
February 23rd, 2012 11:03
Testing – problems yet again.
#141
February 23rd, 2012 11:07
We’ve had French bred winners of all the major Nationals now and most of the satellite ones too. My personal opinion, and that’s all it is so please note -it’s been a bit fractious on here is that I don’t think this one should be rearing its head again.
#142
February 23rd, 2012 11:08
I have read the theories regarding French horses being bred for speed rather than stamina but given the viscid nature of French conditions I’m not really buying into this notion. Having the likes of the three new kids on the French stallion block ie Saint Des Saints, Martaline and Kapgarde suggests to me that stamina still remains an integral part of French NH bloodstock.
#143
February 23rd, 2012 11:09
I’ve seen the theories re speed over stamina and it doesn’t wash given the viscid nature of their ground.
#144
February 23rd, 2012 11:10
Sorry – I tried several attempts to post – they didn’t appear and now they have. Once again sorry everyone.
#145
February 23rd, 2012 11:15
In my new double check just fond a small negative in the almost perfect stats of West End Rocker. No 1/2/3 in a chase with 17 or more runners – believe it or not its a 10/10 stat (posted on an earler page – which i have re read – well worth quickly doing by the way). He does have a 1st with 15 runners – should we be worried about the “perfect one” (now not so perfect?
Now this main seem a fuuny stat but it does look interesting or what? Going to do a list of the teams top 20 and who has a 1/2/3 in a chase with 17 or more runners.
Views on this issue? – keen for quick replies.
The origional post was by Seven Tower dated 20th December post no33 on the thred started on 15th December.
#146
February 23rd, 2012 11:34
Systemsman; not sure about that, WER has run well in big fields. P,10/18,BD in fields of 17 runners or more, form figures for OR140+;P,BD,P?
It’s been mentioned here before, how many times can these horses go to the well before it’s empty? 17/19 GN winners completed 12 or less chases at 24f+, the two that didn’t were aged 9 and 10.
Completed chases – wins
Party Politics 9-4
Miinnehoma 7-3
Royal Athlete 11-6
Rough Quest 9-3
Lord Gyllene 7-3
Earth Summit 21-6
Bobbyjo 12-3
Papillon 11-1
Red Marauder 2-0
Bindaree 8-1
Monty’s Pass 12-2
Amberleigh House 11-2
Hedgehunter 7-3
Numbersixvalverde 6-3
Silver Birch 10-4
Comply Or Die 7-2
Mon Mome 18-4
Dont Push It 3-1
Ballabriggs 6-4
#147
February 23rd, 2012 11:40
correction to completed chases 24f+,
Red Marauder 3-0
#148
February 23rd, 2012 11:44
Lets look at Cappa Bleu refered to this morning:
Postiive:
Or 147: good
GN weight: 10.10: very good
1/2/3 this seson over 25f or more – Yes: very good
3rd over 30f in key race – very very good
Or/RPR + 5: good
Highest Chase win OR/GN OR 140/147 – +7: Good
1/2/3 win 17 or more runner chase – yes: very very good
TS142: Good
Negative:
Six chase runs – very very bad (max now liley to be 7 at most).
Only 8 rules runs in total – very bad
Only 2 chase wins: very very bad
Novic elast racing seson (no runs
Only 4 Han cahses: low
Conclusion:
Another that looks attractive at fisrt glance. A progressive profile but lacks milage. Dosnt have a classic GN winners profile however you look at it. 6 chase runs and 2 wins does just not cut the ice for a Gn winner (too much a “late starter”). Too few runs for a 10 year old (appears to have missed a season missed May 2010 to April 2011(and a Novice in his last racing season [but not last seson]). Too little too late in carear for me.
Has 3 stars in my GN Basic System but is elimianted at this stage due to only 2 chase wins so far (anther win and he’s back in the list)
#149
February 23rd, 2012 11:50
What do people make of STEWARTS HOUSE?
I gave him 4pts on the voting page but only 1 other person has selected him.
He ticks many of the right boxes in terms of age, experience, class 1 win, big field form, Aintree form etc but the 3m+ win is not on his CV. I watched his win in the Sefton again last night and I thought it was very impressive. The others that were up with the early pace and those carrying more than 11st were nowhere come the finish. The second and third came from way off the pace and had pretty light weights, so for him to hold them off with 11-8 after being up there throughout was a serious run. Ok so the race was only 21f, but to stay-on through the mud under 11-8 after being up with the pace suggests that he doesn’t lack for stamina. He jumped the fences very well in the main and this has clearly been the target since. Gets in off 142 which is probably stiff enough but Tim Vaughan (and previous trainer Arthur Moore) both state he’s a better horse on decent ground. I think he’s one of the more interestng of the big (50/1+) outsiders.
#150
February 23rd, 2012 11:56
“No horse since Corbiere 1983, has carried greater than 14lbs more than bottom weight .. if b/w this year is 10-0 that would be 11-02″
Love that stat: its another reason for me being unsure about Planet of Sound (11.05)as good as he may be. Winner most likely to be 10.06 to 11.02 but that depends on what bottom weight is (WER, ATP, CGrey, Shaka [Junior on the border line but may be OK] etc looking good).
#151
February 23rd, 2012 12:06
“Now this main seem a fuuny stat but it does look interesting or what? Going to do a list of the teams top 20 and who has a 1/2/3 in a chase with 17 or more runners.”
Agree that it is important to look at whether or not a horse copes with big fields. However, 1-2-3 in 17+ runner chases seems a bit inflexible and I would just look through a horse’s form to see if it has run well in races with big (15/16+) fields and I would not limit it to chases.
#152
February 23rd, 2012 12:38
seebass pulled from the racing post chase
#153
February 23rd, 2012 12:45
10 runners declared for the R+ Chase. Shocking turnout for a £100k race (£57k for the winner).
#154
February 23rd, 2012 12:49
Rechecked 17 or more runners 1/2 3 (Seven Towers made one mistake in 2002 Bindaree)
1/2/3 in chase with 17 or more runners prior to GN win.
2011 1/17, 1/24 =2 also +1/15
2010 1/17 =1 + 2/16,1/14
2009 2/21 =1 + 1/15, 2/16, 3/16, 1/14
2008 1/18 =1, +4/19, 4/15
2007 2/23, 1/17 =2 + 2/16, 4/16, 1/14, 1/14
2006 1/26, 1/18, 2/17 =3 + 3/14, 4/23
2005 2/18, 2/18 =2, + 4/17, 3/14, 4/21, 1/14, 2/15
2004 3/40, 2/18 =2 + 2/15, 2/15, 1/15, 1/15
2003 1/18, 2/28, 2/22, 1/18 1/20 (Hunter Chase)=5 + 1/15, 4/16(Hunter Chase)
2002 = 0, + 4/24, 3/13, 5/14
Conclusion:
(A)In last nine years every GN winner has had at least one 1st/2nd/3rd in a chase with 17 runners or more AND another 1/2/3/4 with 15 or more runners.
(B)In the last ten years all GN winners have had a 1/2/3/4 in a chase with 17 or more runners.
So lets check the teams cuurent top 20 against the (A) and (B). Coming up as soon as i can get it done.
#155
February 23rd, 2012 12:54
Couldn’t agree more Stayer. Not sure what’s happened this weekend. An absolute shocker of an Eider and RP.
Perhaps NTD should have stopped bemoaning this new qualifying rule for Little Josh and run him at Kempton.
#156
February 23rd, 2012 12:54
crisp post 145
good stat – likely to be poorly handicapped as well as over the hill
#157
February 23rd, 2012 12:55
or exposed
#158
February 23rd, 2012 12:56
Hi Systemsman
I think I was working on the basis that Bindaree was 4th out of 24 in a handicap and therefore technically was placed. But yes, he does miss the 1/2/3.
#159
February 23rd, 2012 12:58
re crisp’s post 145 – both earth summit and mon mome were fairly precocious handicappers both won or placed in a national aged 6 I think
#160
February 23rd, 2012 13:10
In Racing Post & Football Outlook
The West (Hastings)
Do Not Miss – Planet of Sound
This smart chaser can plunder a valuable prize for Hobbs. In April 2010 he revealed his class when pulling away from War Of Attrition to win a Grade 1 at Punchestown.
He hasn’t seen much action since then but clearly showed the benefit of a breathing operation when returning with an excellent second to Carruthers of his current mark of 158 in the Hennesey at Newbury in November.
He goes well fresh and, with a souns surface likely, there won’t be any excuses at Kempton.
#161
February 23rd, 2012 13:13
Seven Towers,
Beggars belief really. There are 9 runners contesting a Class 4 3m Hcap Chase at Huntingdon today chasing a winning prize of under £4k. We have a Class 1 3m Hcap Chase on Sunday with a winning prize of £57k and there are only 10 set to turn up. Prize Money goes down to 6th so if we have fallers and PUs virtually every horse that gets round will collect something. What are the trainers (who often whinge about the lack of prize money in racing) playing at?
#162
February 23rd, 2012 13:14
**Last post should say “Saturday” on 3rd line**
#163
February 23rd, 2012 13:39
“(A)In last nine years every GN winner has had at least one 1st/2nd/3rd in a chase with 17 runners or more AND another 1/2/3/4 with 15 or more runners.”
Just ckecked the teams top 20
82 POINTS: WEST END ROCKER, 19 VOTES, 7 NAPS
72 POINTS: PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE, 18 VOTES, 3 NAPS
60 POINTS: SHAKALACKABOOMBOOM, 19 VOTES, 2 NAPS
54 POINTS: THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, 11 VOTES, 6 NAPS
49 POINTS: JUNIOR, 10 VOTES, 4 NAPS
48 POINTS: NICHE MARKET, 14 VOTES, 3 NAPS
46 POINTS: ALWAYS RIGHT, 11 VOTES, 3 NAPS
44 POINTS: PLANET OF SOUND, 13 VOTES
34 POINTS: KILLYGLEN, 9 VOTES, 2 NAPS
29 POINTS: BALLABRIGGS, 9 VOTES, 1 NAP
29 POINTS: CHICAGO GREY, 9 VOTES, 1 NAP
23 POINTS: ACCORDING TO PETE, 6 VOTES
20 POINTS: MON MOME, 6 VOTES, 2 NAPS
20 POINTS: SYNCHRONISED, 5 VOTES, 2 NAPS
18 POINTS: TREACLE, 6 VOTES
18 POINTS: LE BEAU BAI, 6 VOTES
15 POINTS: HOLD ON JULIO, 4 VOTES
15 POINTS: RARE BOB, 5 VOTES
15 POINTS: SEABASS, 5 VOTES, 1 NAP
12 POINTS: ALFA BEAT, 4 VOTES
Those that dont qualify (first figure is for a 1/2/3 in a chase with 17 or more runners):
WEST END ROCKER (!!! Noooo):0 + 1/14, 1/15, 1/13
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (Nooooooo!)0 + 1/15, 5/25
ALWAYS RIGHT 3/28 + 0 (no other)
KILLYGLEN 0 + 3/14, 2/14
ACCORDING TO PETE 0 + 1/13, 2/14
HOLD ON JULIO 0 + 0 (very bad!! no chance)
RARE BOB 0 + 5/14, 3/16, 4/28, 1/15, 4/16
So a few surprises ther thats for sure the Teams 1 and 2 out. Looks bad for WER but good for Junior if he gets that 1/2/3.
I’am going to take a long lie down now as my head is hurting with all these figures and a danger over over working it i think, but the facts above are what they are and i cant change them.
Views?
#164
February 23rd, 2012 13:47
Rare Bob 4th in an Irish National with 28 runners. This is not a horse that has a problem with big fields. Always Right 3rd in a Scottish National with 28 runners so big fields not a problem.
#165
February 23rd, 2012 13:49
Stayer
I agree – v disappointing. Maybe the Spring Festivals are so important now that other races are falling by the wayside.
The Whitbread is a shadow of the race it once was – truly appalling renewals recently.
Mind you the Friday’s flat card at that meeting is usually good for on-the-day gambles. May go this year again. Usual suspects like Gosden normally in great form at that time of the year.
#166
February 23rd, 2012 13:57
Carrying on from last weeks post.
Starting with the 45 that were left and applying the following then the field is now currently whittled down to 33.
At this stage i use the following: All horses must have raced in at least 8 chases (allow for 2 more races between now and big day) and they must have won a 3m+ race.
#167
February 23rd, 2012 13:58
interesting stat for sure systems, but one that i would not let put me off my selections, except maybe H O J. does another 2-3 horses running in the pack really make that much difference to the horse, or would they even notice. this is where the individual has to decide which stats are important to them and which ones not so — french,odds price etc. etc.my killyglen and p d b in there and not worried at all.
#168
February 23rd, 2012 14:06
Also in Racing Post & Football Outlook
WHY JUNIOR HAS TO BE THE BEST BET
Talking about Cross Country race at Cheltenham Nick Watts says “Scotsirish has the most class and if this was run at 3m he would be a certainty, but stamina isn’t his strongest suit and he might find a couple too good”.
He then goes on to say he thinks Uncle Junior is the bet as he has a touch of class.
So foR the National a big NO NO for Scotsirish but could Uncle Junior do a Silver Birch ?? One thing I do know is if you think he may do, you will need to avail yourself of a price before the Cross Country because if he wins it his price will plummet, you know what the bookies are like.
#169
February 23rd, 2012 14:08
See that Backstage isn’t eligible for the Foxhunters after all [G Elliott said he knew that but nothing has been said till today, even though he was favourite] so the National is probably back on the agenda.
#170
February 23rd, 2012 14:23
GN weather in London today – not good for WER and his fellow mudlarks Le Slow Bai and Miles (Slower) Cross
#171
February 23rd, 2012 14:51
Just had a first look at the Eider Fancy Mister Marker (8/1 ?) & Drybrook Bedouin (14/1)
put off Eyre Square James Reveley in saddle (6 or 7/1) won a 4m at Kelso bt Mister Marker by +2L and now better off by another 5lb figure that ? What do u think guys ?
#172
February 23rd, 2012 14:51
Just had a first look at the Eider Fancy Mister Marker (8/1 ?) & Drybrook Bedouin (14/1)
put off Eyre Square James Reveley in saddle (6 or 7/1) won a 4m at Kelso bt Mister Marker by +2L and now better off by another 5lb figure that ? What do u think guys ?
#173
February 23rd, 2012 14:51
Just had a first look at the Eider Fancy Mister Marker (8/1 ?) & Drybrook Bedouin (14/1)
put off Eyre Square James Reveley in saddle (6 or 7/1) won a 4m at Kelso bt Mister Marker by +2L and now better off by another 5lb figure that ? What do u think guys ?
#174
February 23rd, 2012 14:52
Just had a first look at the Eider Fancy Mister Marker (8/1 ?) & Drybrook Bedouin (14/1)
put off Eyre Square James Reveley in saddle (6 or 7/1) won a 4m at Kelso bt Mister Marker by +2L and now better off by another 5lb figure that ? What do u think guys ?
#175
February 23rd, 2012 15:03
Posting acting up, apologies!
#176
February 23rd, 2012 15:13
Read that Morgan B is in the race. Having a senior moment about this, as I thought he was no longer with us! Also raed that Mister Marker runs very well at Newcastle.
#177
February 23rd, 2012 15:40
Someone said you need a strike rate in excess of 40% in H’CAP chases.
Has anybody got a list of horses that qualify ?
Is there an easy way to find this out ?
#178
February 23rd, 2012 15:42
Someone said of 14 recent winners
8 won 1st h’cap chase
3 came 2nd in 1st h’cap chase
again has anybody got a list of horses that qualify?
Or does anyone know an easy way to find this out?
#179
February 23rd, 2012 15:47
God its gone manic on here!
Pablo #168 that made me choke
nearly to death,.. healthy bean salad ain’t so good in the wind pipe!
#180
February 23rd, 2012 16:02
I had a burger royale with cheese yesterday
don’t want you all thinking I am usually a healthy bean salad sort, infact I rarely burger it up either 
but I am rather into food…
Interesting that Massini for sale, not that I want to taste horse! I am not french! any futher info on that, is it true? if so what of it. Like Mo said, maybe that was his BIG race right there, but considering ‘his probs’- did that not involve injuries??? it makes business sense to sell on a high.
Been trying to read all posts,… worn out and have to go digest…
#181
February 23rd, 2012 16:15
Pablo- agree london is balmy, but its been rubbish and freezing cold til today.
and will anyway what with the panic.
Have to remember Aintree is up north, near Wales- a very wet place and April was known for its ‘showers’ anything could happen come mid april. I’ve given up guessing and will have to have a bet race week if weather is not sufficiently covered
#182
February 23rd, 2012 16:19
Left Handed RPR 12/13 – 154 or higher
Did anyone post the horses that fit this profile?
#183
February 23rd, 2012 16:21
Costa Del Merseyside up here today, warmest day of the year!
#184
February 23rd, 2012 16:31
I think bookies Victor and Paddy had 5 places cheltenham time by the way, can’t remember who asked….. ooh, just checked I had my bet last yr on Niche with 5 places 12th Feb! not sure which bookie, can’ t find it…too many accounts?
Nobody has posted LH RPRs as far as I can see Red , not sure of the stat actually need to revise, I was one of those who already asked.
#185
February 23rd, 2012 17:21
The Big Stat as I am calling it, is almost finished I am waiting on answers to Posts 175/176/180
Then later on I will add:
Prep runs
Days since last Run
This Big Stat has taken into account every single stat on this blog (don’t know how much use it will be, but will publish findings when I have totted up all the POSITIVES minus NEGATIVES for each horse.
I have only done this for the 27 horses I still had on my list + 8 other fancied horses on the Blog. If by doing this I have missed the winner I will probably cry.
List of Horses to follow:
#186
February 23rd, 2012 17:26
West End Rocker
Junior
Prince De Beauchene
Planet Of Sound
State Of Play
Massini’s Maguire
Synchronised
Ballabriggs
Niche Market
Deep Purple
Shakalakaboomboom
Seabass
Midnight Chase
Weird Al
Burton Port
Calgary Bay
Always Right
According To Pete
Chicago Grey
Roberto Goldback
Hold On Julio
Treacle
Neptune Collonges
Killyglen
Le Beau Bai
Giles Cross
Uncle Junior
Roulez Cool
The Midnight Club
Mon Mome
Rare Bob
Alfa Beat
Stewarts House
Scotsirish
Cappa Bleu
#187
February 23rd, 2012 17:38
As I have them year of GN, RPR, and track they achieved this at, except for the two RH ones. Think it’s right.
2011 154 Chl
2010 160 War
2009 155 Chl
2008 155 Ncs
2007 150 Chl
2006 146 Leo
2005 156 RIGHT HANDED
2004 154 Ain
2003 148 RIGHT HANDED
2002 153 Chl
#188
February 23rd, 2012 18:03
Completed handicap chases 24f+;
Party Politics 7-2
Miinnehoma 3-0
Royal Athlete 4-1
Rough Quest 6-3
Lord Gyllene 6-3
Earth Summit 13-4
Bobbyjo 10-3
Papillon 8-1
Red Marauder 3-0
Bindaree 4-0
Monty’s Pass 5-1
Amberleigh House 7-2
Hedgehunter 5-2
Numbersixvalverde 5-3
Silver Birch 5-3
Comply Or Die 4-1
Mon Mome 16-3
Dont Push It 2-1
Ballabriggs 5-3
The 8 yr olds had at least four, the 12 yr olds had seven or less.
Those last 19 GN’s winners- % of 24f chases completed that were h’cap chases;
Party Politics 78%
Miinnehoma 43%
Royal Athlete 36%
Rough Quest 67%
Lord Gyllene 86%
Earth Summit 62%
Bobbyjo 83%
Papillon 73%
Red Marauder 100%
Bindaree 50%
Monty’s Pass 42%
Amberleigh House 64%
Hedgehunter 71%
Numbersixvalverde 83%
Silver Birch 50%
Comply Or Die 57%
Mon Mome 89%
Dont Push It 67%
Ballabriggs 83%
These figures seem to suggest the GN is still a handicappers race, handicap form and experience over 24f+ looks vital to me but not too much exposure! –
Monty’s Pass figure is low due to hunter chases. Royal Athlete and Miinnehoma were defintite Gold Cup horses earlier in their careers and both were only asked to carry relatively light weights in their GN’s – 10-6 & 10-8. Monty’s only carried 10-7.
#189
February 23rd, 2012 18:22
So Ballabrigs best RPR LH WAS 154 at Chl.
#190
February 23rd, 2012 18:36
Completed 24f handicap chases:
Party Politics 7-2
Miinnehoma 3-0
Royal Athlete 4-1
Rough Quest 6-3
Lord Gyllene 6-3
Earth Summit 13-4
Bobbyjo 10-3
Papillon 8-1
Red Marauder 3-0
Bindaree 4-0
Monty’s Pass 5-1
Amberleigh House 7-2
Hedgehunter 5-2
Numbersixvalverde 5-3
Silver Birch 5-3
Comply Or Die 4-1
Mon Mome 16-3
Don’t Push It 2-1
Ballabriggs 5-3
Interesting for me the two 8 yr olds at least four, the two 12 yr olds seven or less.
#191
February 23rd, 2012 18:37
That should be runs-wins.
#192
February 23rd, 2012 18:49
looks to me as though killyglen will just get in at number 40. anything below will struggle. been down the list and i have been generous in taking 10 out to allow killyglen a run. touch and go for me. unless any1 knows more info? bottom weight of 10-4.
#193
February 23rd, 2012 19:21
Systemsman
February 23rd, 2012 11:56
“No horse since Corbiere 1983, has carried greater than 14lbs more than bottom weight .. if b/w this year is 10-0 that would be 11-02″
Love that stat: its another reason for me being unsure about Planet of Sound (11.05)as good as he may be. Winner most likely to be 10.06 to 11.02 but that depends on what bottom weight is (WER, ATP, CGrey, Shaka [Junior on the border line but may be OK] etc looking good).
———
surely if bottom weight is 10’0′, 14 pounds above that would be 11’0′?
#194
February 23rd, 2012 19:30
Matriarch
Monty’s Pass’s 148 was at Listowel (Kerry National) which is left-handed
So exception on your list is Hedgehunter, who had already run a 148 in previous year’s GN when falling at the last
In general many fewer opportunities for Irish horses to run in 3m+ chases left-handed than British-trained horses
#195
February 23rd, 2012 19:35
crisp73 stated:
So here we go again 9/10 completed in at least 4 handicap chases at 24f or more and 9/10 (not the same nine) won at least one of them. Will check teams top 20 again in morning against this stat.
crisp73 love your stats every year. Which of your many unique stats would you think are the key stats and that you wiuld use yourself?
#196
February 23rd, 2012 19:35
KJ ur post about tasting horse gave me the chuckles lol
#197
February 23rd, 2012 19:38
“surely if bottom weight is 10’0′, 14 pounds above that would be 11’0′?”
Correct which is why Junior is “iffy” as we dont know yet bottom weight (it could be 10.02 in which case Junior would be OK with no weight rise).
#198
February 23rd, 2012 19:40
Red I think eider chase tips go on other page. This is GN blog.
#199
February 23rd, 2012 19:45
Any thoughts on Deep Purple? I am warming to his chances. Trainer says he is not sure he will stay but, then again, he didn’t think he would stay 3m5f in his last race.
#200
February 23rd, 2012 20:04
Deep Purple won’t stay GN distance. Too far.
#201
February 23rd, 2012 20:09
kj; I think I read a quote on here about Massini; hope I’m right and I’m not getting him mixed up with another horse.
#202
February 23rd, 2012 20:23
I have a soft spot for Deep Purple having won at Sandown and I have backed him EW this saturday. I was at sandown and he won nicely, dropped back to 5th before turning for home but never in trouble and easily won. No worry about staying that distance but it appeared a soft race to me and nothing of the speed or quality he will have to go in the GN. if the trainer was worried about 3m5 i wouldnt have thought he had a cat in hell’s chance of staying 4.5 but if he turns over planet of sound on saturday i might be tempted to go for the treble.
#203
February 23rd, 2012 20:56
Mike n have you any concerns regarding west end rocker staying 4.5 miles.
#204
February 23rd, 2012 20:58
testing
#205
February 23rd, 2012 20:59
Can you adam and eve it, after studying the race since sept, on the day the entries were published I suffered a stroke. Right arm, leg and speech effected but thank God the laptop and tablet are ok.
Left hosp. Yesterday to find I’m 1400 posts behind. Prince de beauchene 14/1 – must be a ruby thing.
#206
February 23rd, 2012 21:07
I thought that I’d mark your card on a few runners.
Prince De Beauchene: Willie Mullins is quite bullish about him. “He will love it round here. I haven’t got the best from him yet and know there’s more to come.
He runs in the Bobbyjo now a significant national trial for irish horse and a race the stable’s Hedgehunter won en route to Aintree glory in 2005. Ruby Walsh won’t be aboard him this weekend but I fancy he might be on the 2nd Saturday of April.”
#207
February 23rd, 2012 21:09
Hi miinnehoma. Sorry to hear about your stroke, don’t overdo things will you.
#208
February 23rd, 2012 21:22
Donald McCain (jnr) has 3 entries Ballabriggs (last year’s winner), Weird Al (Sired by Accordion [oh dear
]) and Wymott.
Wymott looks doubtful
For a horse who was renowned for consistency this season he has been a bit disappointing. Last term he completed a 4X but this season he has failed to make the frame, although his at Doncaster when 6th to Hold On Julio was much more encouraging. He is in grand form at home and the plan is the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. I have given him an entry in the Grand National and I have to say he has a great racing weight, but the target is far from certain at this stage.
#209
February 23rd, 2012 21:40
it looks like killyglen will just squeeze in at number 40 i think. looking down the list i cant see more than 10 coming out and thats being generous. bottom weight 10-4. any views?
#210
February 23rd, 2012 21:42
take it easy miinnehoma
#211
February 23rd, 2012 21:44
Weird Al:
He has only been with us this season, but he had already done well for Ian Williams and is among the top staying chasers in Britain. He beat a good field on his first start for us in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and probably did even better in the Betfair Chase when 3rd to Kauto Star and Long Run at Haydock. We decided then that as he goes best when fresh he wouldn’t race again before the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I think he has done enough to justify his inclusion in the field. We know he loves Cheltenham having won twice there as a novice chaser. He is exactly where I would expect him to be at this moment and in a year with so many question marks over his rivals concerning jumping, stamina and age he goes there in grand order and must have an each way chance.
#212
February 23rd, 2012 22:03
Ballabriggs (defending champion)
What a superstar he has been for us, winning my 1st Grand National. It was terrific to win the great race, especially for Dad to be there to see it happen. We took a deliberate route last year when sending him over fences just once at Kelso and that will be the same plan of attack this spring. So far we have had no problems, everything has gone to plan and I am very happy with him. He did a swinging gallop over 2 miles at Haydock last Saturday which he seemed to really enjoy and now it is on to Kelso for the Premier Chase. Obviously he has a much harder task, this year,at Aintree as he has been raised 10 pound by the handicapper, resulting in a weight of 11-09, but I am not going to complain about it as he has earned that rise. Although he is 11, I believe he is still at the peak of his powers.
#213
February 23rd, 2012 22:14
#137 Red Alligator
…Kedi intereting re.French Breds. Out of interest if info to hand, of the 9 winners what were their ages?
Winners or placed horses – all 8 or 9 I think, except Clan Royal when he placed for the second time.
#141 Seven Towers
…I have read the theories regarding French horses being bred for speed rather than stamina but given the viscid nature of French conditions I’m not really buying into this notion. Having the likes of the three new kids on the French stallion block ie Saint Des Saints, Martaline and Kapgarde suggests to me that stamina still remains an integral part of French NH bloodstock.
It wouldn’t be a rational breeding strategy – there are only three Pattern chases in France run over less than 2m4f, and once a horse is 4 and a bit it is ineligible for them…
#214
February 23rd, 2012 22:16
Get well soon Miinne
#215
February 23rd, 2012 22:20
James i was waiting to see if Alan King mentioned the GN trip for WER at all this season. He hasn’t so fine by me.
#216
February 23rd, 2012 22:23
Welcome back Miinne.
#217
February 23rd, 2012 22:30
Mike N, Alan King been going on about WER for national in the WEEKENDER for ages. Hold On Julio depends on his next run.
Graham it’s do or die on a week on saturday for The Niche. I’m not bothered about his strike rate but according to his RPR he looks in decline. I think he should win a vetenary race if he’s to stand any chance on April 14.
Good Luck.
#218
February 23rd, 2012 22:40
Hi miinnehoma, take good care of yourself, take things easy, I wish you well.
#219
February 23rd, 2012 22:58
I don’t read weekender.
#220
February 23rd, 2012 23:10
Grand National Addict, how can you only see 10 coming out? I was under the impression there are 7 of the entries that arent even qualified to run yet! I reckon there will be a couple running from out the handicap this year. As for Killyglen, he will comfortably get in
#221
February 23rd, 2012 23:11
miinnehoma; good to have you back!
#222
February 23rd, 2012 23:11
Best wishes and take care of yourself Minnehoma . Take it easy buddy!
#223
February 23rd, 2012 23:13
How awful if State of Play doen’t get in.
#224
February 23rd, 2012 23:13
Welcome back Miinnehoma, I’m calm on WER now (moved onto Killyglen!) but still backed him! So I wont cause your pulse to raise by bangin on about him!
Hope your gettin on ok.
#225
February 23rd, 2012 23:19
the top 40 barring the unqualified ones and maybe 3 near the top which are gunning for chelt or gold cup, the rest look aintree bound with all the usual suspects taking part. and u never no.. sychronised,weird al midnight chase mayy even run at aintree. who knows. i think killyglen will get in but im not looking above number 50-54
#226
February 23rd, 2012 23:24
Mike n many thanks.
#227
February 23rd, 2012 23:48
Mike N
February 23rd, 2012 22:20
James i was waiting to see if Alan King mentioned the GN trip for WER at all this season. He hasn’t so fine by me.
Aldaniti&Spartan Missile
February 23rd, 2012 22:30
Mike N, Alan King been going on about WER for national in the WEEKENDER for ages. Hold On Julio depends on his next run.
Mike N
February 23rd, 2012 22:58
I don’t read weekender.
Mike N if you don’t read weekender, then what’s your source on Alan King seeing has he hasn’t made West End Rocker any secret and had the national sort of the plan depending on if he likes the fences, which is why he ran him in the Bechers then nothing until after the weights.
#228
February 24th, 2012 00:26
Don’t you trouble yourself Aldaniti The Niche will be trying Saturday week at Newbury. Jesus !!! he has to, to tick the necessary stats boxes on this blog !!!
What is the view if Ruby decides to ride The Niche in The National off 10 st 5lb ???
#229
February 24th, 2012 00:29
RA will try and help you with your figures but it will take time to compile, probably put up at weekend when more time.
#230
February 24th, 2012 00:36
Graham, while West End Rocker is my number 1 choice, your fella has to be respected too. It’s not a 1 horse race.
#231
February 24th, 2012 00:44
I totally understand that, but I do love reading these chats on here, because it’s all about opinion. There are horses who get 3 miles and 3 miles 2. But it takes a rare breed to get 4 miles 4 !!
It takes heart and bravery and guts. That’s why this race is considered the greatest steeple Chase race in the world.
#232
February 24th, 2012 00:47
Can I just ask what are people’s view on QUAINTITATIVEEASING
#233
February 24th, 2012 00:53
Miinne- Kimosabe!
I knew overworking the GN was bad for us!
seriously, I did wonder where you were. Glad you are ok and back home, being a nice fella and all
I will have to join with the friendly chant of ‘take it easy’ and suggest that edamame and aduki bean salads are quite tasty! *albeit not from tescos…. homemade tuna nicoise? mmmm
I need to get healthy this year I really do… GN bloggers fitness support club anyone?
ah.. yes I make myself laugh… But my local pool is more of a paddling pool slipway with wave machine! ah…i’m making excuses again already. Must do it tho, anything but a gym (or hospital) is my moto.
I’m aiming for a japanese and italian diet, more salads, fruit,.. less booze and cheese!
For exercise I choose getting on my bike and in the pool… although not at the same time
Minne- may I suggest not reading all the posts. Its very very long and I’m not sure I have benefited from reading it, been here since september this yr too
#234
February 24th, 2012 00:55
Miinne- Kimosabe!
I knew overworking the GN was bad for us!
seriously, I did wonder where you were. Glad you are ok and back home, being a nice fella and all
I will have to join with the friendly chant of ‘take it easy’
#235
February 24th, 2012 01:12
Graham- I do hope I am not repeating myself but also hope this posts now…
as in Niche has no problems in jumping the course and travelling, I think he can seriously help a horse in that way. Seeing out the 4m4 is harder to help with I think. I just hope he can improve on last yr as I don’t have 5th place cover this yr,… whats with that!.. bookies!
I think Ruby is obviously an asset, but think its more worrying who ELSE he can help rather than Niche
Oh, how about the coughing at yard?
#236
February 24th, 2012 07:17
Graham – If only I knew who Ruby would ride at the moment given the choice. Seabass – if so i would be on tomorrow and the National. Mullins’ pick – if say he said I would jump on The Midnight Club if it ran back to form in the Boobyjo I would probably jump on now for the National. In the same way if Ruby said he would pick Niche now as he thinks it has the most chance I would certainly take the chances a little more seriously as a winner than I do now. But I don’t know any of this. I wish they would say “if I had to make a choice today ….” as it would be valuable info for punters and not a commitment.
#237
February 24th, 2012 07:25
Graham – in reality I think the winners chance has gone. Niche will fit all the stats and make my shortlist as per the last two years. year 1 I wasnt sure about his experience and last year I needed to be convinced he liked aintree. obviously neither of those arguments stand but very few horses improve by their third run either if still high in the weights or on a falling mark. that would be my reason for omitting him as the winner in favour of horses with a better profile. However he has been banker EW material for me since day one. And it depends how you interpret becher form. For sure he stays that distance so I think he was just undone by the ground that day. He was 6l down at the last and has a 16lb pull with west end rocker who tops all my stats list. I think he came to win it last year and was outdone by better handicapped and better staying horses. I can see the same thing happening this year. But I hope he gives you a massive run and you get placed behind my picks!
#238
February 24th, 2012 07:32
I think Niche is overpriced still and feel the drop in weights this year could go some way to offsetting any stamina doubts
Speaking of stamina doubts, I notice PdB is favourite on betfair now.
#239
February 24th, 2012 07:37
third year improvers? amberleigh house, brave highlander. not sure there are any more. Mon Mome – four years after 1st appearance?? I was never buying that.
#240
February 24th, 2012 08:20
Baggy,
With regards Deep Purple, I too was at Sandown on Tingle Creek day. My observation at the time was that he basically outclassed inferior rivals in a race that was run at a steady pace and even though it was 3m6f it was not really a stamina test. Against better opposition and over 6f further in a race run at a strong pace, class alone will not suffice. I make him a doubtful stayer. The big field would also be a concern for me. Most of Deep Purple’s experience has been in fields of 10 or less.
#241
February 24th, 2012 08:44
Hi Ewok.
I agree. When I was running late % had to run to the nearest underground,I found it much easier without all my presentation equipment to carry.
Too much weight makes prominant runners look like they don’t stay at the end of a gruelling race. I havn’t touched The Niche in the last two years and I think this is its first real chance since its Irish National win. 16 lbs, over a stone, is a massive turnaround in the weights with this Bloggs favourite, WER, over 4 1/2 miles. WER will have to prove to be an Aintree specialist & over perform at the course & distance compared to what its shown so far.
Many think it will, but is a short price to do so!
#242
February 24th, 2012 08:48
Hi Admin Just lost my post
#243
February 24th, 2012 09:02
Just lost my Re post
#244
February 24th, 2012 09:40
Well folks here it is and it has taken in every stat so far as a plus or minus for each horse listed yesterday.As is the norm in cases like this to build the anticipation it will be in reverse order.
Don’t forget there are about 5 stats left to add, so it is not the FINAL list. Also plse bear in mind I will be taking into account any horses runs between now and the race as they may change a stat eg.if Seabass ran a 3 mile race he would not only gain a plus but he would lose a minus enhancing him by two. Anyway I have kept you all in suspense long enough. See next post for first batch of results.
P.S.Minnehoma I am new to the Blog this year as I now have my own laptop and can take part.
Hope you are on the mend,best wishes.
#245
February 24th, 2012 10:00
THE BIG STAT RESULTS:
35TH: Roberto Goldback +13 -12 = +1
34th: Neptune Collonges + 18 -11 = +7
33rd: Calgary Bay +19 -12 = +7
32nd: Burton Port +19 -11 = +8
31st: Stewarts House +17 -8 = +9
30th: Cappa Bleu +18 -9 = +9
28th=: Roulez Cool +18 -8 = +10
28th=: Scotsirish +18 -8 = +10
26th=: Alfa Beat +20 -9 = +11
26th=: Weird Al +20 -9 = +11
#246
February 24th, 2012 10:49
Hi Minnihoma
Sorry to hear the news, wishing you good health and glad your out of hospital and on the mend.
#247
February 24th, 2012 11:09
Hi Crisp 73.
I have winning the Becher Chase in the same season down as a Major negative stat due to the increased weight. I know Black Apalachi ran well but do you have a list of Any Becher winners that won the GN & off the same or higher OR mark.
Thanks
#248
February 24th, 2012 11:13
THE BIG STAT RESULTS:
25TH: Deep Purple +21 -10 = +11
24th: Seabass +19 -7 = +12
22nd=:Treacle +20 -8 = +12
22nd=:The Midnight Club +20 -8 = +12
20th=:Always Right +21 -9 = +12
20th=:Killyglen +21 -9 = +12
19th: Hold On Julio +20 -7 = +13
18th: Massini’s Maguire +21 -8 = +13
17th: Shakalakaboomboom +22 -8 = +14
#249
February 24th, 2012 11:37
Crisp I know silver Birch & Amberleigh Hse did a few years later. I meant Same season attempts in the past
#250
February 24th, 2012 11:39
THE BIG STATS RESULTS:
14TH= Midnight Chase +23 -7 = +16
14th= Uncle Junior +23 -7 = +16
14th= Niche Market +23 -7 = +16
12th= Synchronised +24 -8 = +16
12th= Chicago Grey +24 -8 = +16
11th Mon Mome +25 -9 = +16
Got to go out for the day Top ten to follow, tonight. It will give you all time to look back at the list and imagine who will be No.1
#251
February 24th, 2012 11:45
PS.
Inoticed Clan royal came close when second to Amberleigh off 12lbs worse terms(Like WER) but that was Clan Royals first chase at 3 miles+ so unexposed JJ horse!
#252
February 24th, 2012 12:02
Ok as promished i have checked the Team top 20 (listed bwlow)against:
A1: completed four or more handicap chase at 24f or more (9/10)AND (A2) won Han chase at 24f or more (9/10).
B:A RPR rating of at least 146(10/10) and 147 best (9/10).
Just ckecked the teams top 20
82 POINTS: WEST END ROCKER, 19 VOTES, 7 NAPS
72 POINTS: PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE, 18 VOTES, 3 NAPS
60 POINTS: SHAKALACKABOOMBOOM, 19 VOTES, 2 NAPS
54 POINTS: THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, 11 VOTES, 6 NAPS
49 POINTS: JUNIOR, 10 VOTES, 4 NAPS
48 POINTS: NICHE MARKET, 14 VOTES, 3 NAPS
46 POINTS: ALWAYS RIGHT, 11 VOTES, 3 NAPS
44 POINTS: PLANET OF SOUND, 13 VOTES
34 POINTS: KILLYGLEN, 9 VOTES, 2 NAPS
29 POINTS: BALLABRIGGS, 9 VOTES, 1 NAP
29 POINTS: CHICAGO GREY, 9 VOTES, 1 NAP
23 POINTS: ACCORDING TO PETE, 6 VOTES
20 POINTS: MON MOME, 6 VOTES, 2 NAPS
20 POINTS: SYNCHRONISED, 5 VOTES, 2 NAPS
18 POINTS: TREACLE, 6 VOTES
18 POINTS: LE BEAU BAI, 6 VOTES
15 POINTS: HOLD ON JULIO, 4 VOTES
15 POINTS: RARE BOB, 5 VOTES
15 POINTS: SEABASS, 5 VOTES, 1 NAP
12 POINTS: ALFA BEAT, 4 VOTES
NOne failed on (B) RPR all have RPR148 or better (Trecale wa slowest on best RPR148)
A1 and A2
Those who fail:
The Midnight Club A1 and A2
Junior (nooooo) A1
Planet of Sound A1
Killyglen A2
Chicargo Grey (noooo) A1 and A2!!!
Hold On Julio A!
Now i have to relegate CG to the bottom of my short list. Junior is more and more loking iffy (more in aninute). Hold On Julio should not be in anyone list now (fail sooo many stats)and Killyglen not in my list for sure (also failed on runs in cahse with 17 or more runners).
#253
February 24th, 2012 12:05
no seabass in the bobbyjo.
#254
February 24th, 2012 12:06
Mike Campo;no Becher-GN has been chieved in same season. Samlee might have been a bit unlucky. Had to run from 10lb out of the handicap in ’98 when coming 3rd.
Amberleigh House won Becher in only fourth chase, all h’caps, at 24f+(didn’t finish in two of those) on OR121, won GN off OR139, 3rd in ’03 GN 136, 2nd ’03 Becher OR133.
Silver Birch won Becher OR123 in seventh chase,
at 24f+, only two had been h’caps(only completed one of those), won GN OR138, 2nd in Cross Country prior to GN OR138.
Systemsman; will post some stats up soon.
#255
February 24th, 2012 12:08
Junior
Just what can you say. Having sleepness nights thinking about him. Looking very very iffy on some stats now. Fails on 4 handicap chases (but may get there) and no 1/2/3 yet this season.Only 7 chase runs (not the ten we need). At the limit of weights for this years winner i think and neeeds to be within 14lbs of bottom weight. Needs another handicap chase run and preferably a win or at least a good 1/2/3.
Going down right to the wire with this one i think – no way we are going to know till his next race (just hope its not the Gold Cup – unlikley).
Anyone still feeling brave about this one?
#256
February 24th, 2012 12:14
Thanks Crisp.
That’s Brilliant. You never fail to deliver!
#257
February 24th, 2012 12:17
“graham regan
February 24th, 2012 00:26
Don’t you trouble yourself Aldaniti The Niche will be trying Saturday week at Newbury. Jesus !!! he has to, to tick the necessary stats boxes on this blog !!!”
At last Graham is getting it together with the Teams “Master Plan” for the Niche after overtrying the Niche for so so long. I will be on him in his next race. Needs that win and deserves it thats for sure but it may be his last win – he owes nothing to anybody as a past Irish National winner (how many owners get any sort of “National” winner?). Good chance of a place in GN if he gets that win next and who knows if he can be close to the front BUT held up just that bit longer – if! (clearly he loves Aintree).
#258
February 24th, 2012 12:30
Red Alligator wonderful work – must have taken ages. How amany stats/trends were used – cna you explain your work a little more. Will look at top 8 as a perfect fit is not always best (I bet WER is in there!! [but no run 1/2/3 in a chase with 17 or more runners - its a big worry]).
“Got to go out for the day Top ten to follow, tonight. It will give you all time to look back at the list and imagine who will be No.1″
Noooooooooooooooo – leaves us hanging all day!!
#259
February 24th, 2012 12:34
crisp73 (NO 1 stats man for sure – alway origional)
“will post some stats up soon”
Cant wait as i am geting a little confused at times with some leading players – i think it will all be a lot clearer at the end of Cheltenham week. Reluctant to top up anti post bets currently.
#260
February 24th, 2012 13:07
Becher winners.
The Record of Becher chase winners attempting GN the same year in 11 attempts:
Winners – 0
2nd – 1 Clan Royal
3rd – 1 Samlee- beaten a distance
5th – 1 Young Hustler
9th – 1
14th – 1
PU – 3
UR – 3
#261
February 24th, 2012 13:20
Sorry crisp. Managed to find a list of Becher chase winners for above in the end.
Eleven is a smallish sample, particularly as 3 unseated but the near miss, Clan royal, and the two subsequent winners were all unexposed when winning the Becher. Is WER unexposed?
#262
February 24th, 2012 13:26
P.S
The two to win in subsequent years didn’t tackle the GN later that year after winning the Becher.
#263
February 24th, 2012 13:28
Miine- I voted for the littlest horse I could on your behalf
Burton Port.
Now I assume he got no other votes because of doubt he’s going to turn up as going to win the GC!?
plus 11-7 is over the winning threshold and for an 8yr old who is tiny and back from a yr off injury its a tall order, ha ha…. But he is really good!
With a turn of foot if he’s thereabouts second circuit could you bet against him?!
#264
February 24th, 2012 13:32
Yes this was the irony of winning the becher with the weights in the GN. This year although seemingly no becher penalty WER already slapped with 12lb. Definately a negatory for WER there,. still 10st12 is a good weight.
#265
February 24th, 2012 13:43
WER
“no becher penalty WER already slapped with 12lb. Definately a negatory for WER there2
That extra 12lb is a big worry as good as he looks on stats and may just find him out against a few others i cant help thinking.
#266
February 24th, 2012 13:50
Hi KJ.
Fair along is my Little horse!
Re WER. I would like WER in my portfolio, just in case he’s a ‘national type’ but I think the price is far too short & would take a substantial investmaent on a horse that I’m not convinced by. Many WER followers on here don’t rate The Niche but if the Becher were run tomorrow on any ground I would be stunned if it didn’t reverse the form with a 16 lbs turnaround in the weights!
#267
February 24th, 2012 14:01
Interesting veterans race I notice other day at Donny.
Faasel o Faasel…wins! Nikola 3rd.
A few of our horses can be measured up against them.
Junior,.. and Calgary.
Mike C- I like them both as horses for courses! Only Niches finish is the problem. I personally don’t want him to run his heart out in his next race to fit stats, as he has a chance. I would like WER to have another run, no entries! match fitness is key.
#268
February 24th, 2012 14:07
Good little horse by the way Mike C… but who is smaller?!
#269
February 24th, 2012 14:10
Not sure Kj, but more appropriate name re minni & our best wishes for him!
#270
February 24th, 2012 14:22
#271
February 24th, 2012 14:23
Sorry & please forgive me Miinni; another typo.
Kj, I think front/prominant runners with heart & gutts (As Graham puts it) give everything trying to keep up. They can then appear to fade badly just because they were carrying too much weight.
Was the distance really the problem last year;I didn’t think so as I thought it was badly handicapped befoehand.
#272
February 24th, 2012 14:24
Mike Campo- not totally sure the definition of exposed/unexposed in jump racing.
Handicap chases.
(posted this before) % of chases ran that were h’caps;
Party Politics 50%
Miinnehoma 44%
Royal Athlete 44%
Rough Quest 70%
Lord Gyllene 58%
Earth Summit 64%
Bobbyjo 71%
Papillon 63%
Red Marauder 86%
Bindaree 40%
Monty’s Pass 76%
Amberleigh House 65%
Hedgehunter 55%
Numbersixvalverde 60%
Silver Birch 62%
Comply Or Die 57%
Mon Mome 88%
Dont Push It 42%
Ballabriggs 58%
% of 24f+ chases that were h’caps
Party Politics 90%
Miinnehoma 38%
Royal Athlete 40%
Rough Quest 75%
Lord Gyllene 86%
Earth Summit 64%
Bobbyjo 83%
Papillon 73%
Red Marauder 100%
Bindaree 50%
Monty’s Pass 50%
Amberleigh House 75%
Hedgehunter 75%
Numbersixvalverde 83%
Silver Birch 62%
Comply Or Die 64%
Mon Mome 90%
Don’t Push It 67%
Ballabriggs 71%
#273
February 24th, 2012 14:35
Hi Crisp
My idea of exposed or unexposed is whether or not the handicapper has seen enough of a horses ability at a given distance to give a horse sufficient weight to match the horses true potential.
#274
February 24th, 2012 14:38
I understand that Northern Alliance has scratched.
#275
February 24th, 2012 14:44
PS In WER’ case the handicapper seemed fine with OR 137 – 140 until it won the Becher. It had quite a few races prior to that where OR137 seemed to be roughly its right handicap mark.
other past Becher chase winners were early in their 3 mile+ chase carreers & the handicapper hadn’t seen enough of their potential so the won off relatively low OR marks.
Is this clear as mud & am I missing the point?
#276
February 24th, 2012 14:56
fair along and rare bob are huge prices i think. not saying they tick all the stats etc but surely at 50-1 will be a good run for ur money n may nick a place. we no how skinny these bookies are so i think thats value. 14-1 prince de beachene now with bet365. shocking
#277
February 24th, 2012 15:18
The Greatest race on earth but where is the value and how to find the winner.
The Two Problems we punters face:
Will it take to the fences & the rough & tumble.
Will it excel at the distance.
The bookies are all at sea on this & react to every tip & article in the press, every win in the build up & every few hunred quid laid.
We have Great Stats, form information,handicap mark analysis at appropriate distances & Key race stats & analysis to give us the edge for once .
If we stake to a portfolio of the more likely winners based on out interpretations not bookies prices, we should have a good chance of profit.
#278
February 24th, 2012 15:37
It’s so hard to find any value anywhere these days, Mike, and with the small [and I mean small] bets I have value is everything.
#279
February 24th, 2012 15:46
Hi Maureen.
Hopefully we’ll get there if the winner is a decent price somewhere. I’ve noticed that,in the past, you tend to get better value on Betfair around Chelt time which is good as we have a clearer picture by then. As we get closer, most of the value is on the exchanges where different horses are drifting in & out every few weeks. eg dont push it drifted ou to 65-1 from 40-1 two weeks before the GN it won at 7-1.
Maybe we should all alert each other!
#280
February 24th, 2012 16:01
Hi Guys
Please take a look here about a forum we have launched to try to fix some of the recent problems
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/uncategorized/grand-national-forum/
Hope you like it
#281
February 24th, 2012 16:03
Just been reading about the GN on Wiki and noticed that the run in from the last fence to the post is actually 2.2f. It got me thinking and I’ve found some racecourses with similar distance finishes after the last fence. Some interesting courses and run ins.
Longest race course run ins:
Aintree GN (2.2f run in))
Carlise (3.5f Uphill)
Cartmel (4f flat)
Catterick (3f downhill)
Cheltenham: Old Course: 1.5f run in uphill
Cheltenham: New course: 1f run in uphill
Exeter: 1.3f uphill
Haydock: 4f flat run in??
Kelso (2f uphill. Hurdles esp)
Newcastle: 4f run in
Southall: 3f run in
Horses that have ran and won at these courses with ‘Staying on’ in the description would have a better chance in the finish in th GN (In theory) Cant find any info like this for Irish courses, particually, FairyHouse, Punchestown, Leopardstown, Gow ad Listowel.
Last 10 winners have all won and finished strongly at the above courses. Need info on Irish courses for Hedgehunter and Montys.
Can anyone add to this?? Thoughts?
#282
February 24th, 2012 16:08
Fair Along, if they decide to run, mainly falls down on not winning a 3 mile chase, which looks bad on the face of it. However its only run over 3 miles in its last six chases & clearly is capable. It probably needs another win anyay to get its chase to win ratio up but, like The Niche, if it won the veterens next week it would be my best stats fit in the field.
I know the risk is big but so is the price!
#283
February 24th, 2012 16:52
mike, like how you think and very similar views regarding fair along and your earlier thoughts on niche market in which i think is the e/w bet this year and has a better than ever chance to win with an 8lb reduction.watched last years race again and the niche ran a cracker and like i say 8lb over 4.4 miles will make a difference, especially if we get ruby on board.anyway both backed e/w and happy with the investment. job offer still open till end of month lol.
#284
February 24th, 2012 17:04
nina carberry is named to be the jockey on organisedconfusion in g.nat.
#285
February 24th, 2012 17:15
Admin (Darren) Can we still use the subforums here? Thanks
#286
February 24th, 2012 17:39
Hello. Anybody here? Anyone left? Lol
#287
February 24th, 2012 17:44
Mike C niche would be closer to WER but wudnt beat it on their becher form.
#288
February 24th, 2012 19:10
looks like seabass is running on sunday with ruby on board. in a 2m chase. baffled by that :s
#289
February 24th, 2012 19:20
do u think paul townend will ride treacle in the national?
#290
February 24th, 2012 19:31
Mike N. If I could be sure of that I’d add to my bets. Do you know where & when it runs next?
#291
February 24th, 2012 19:35
Hi Mandie. Very Kind.
Email me your telephone number & a time to call;Pref monday afternoon, Tues morning & we can have a chat.
campion56@hotmail.co.uk
#292
February 24th, 2012 19:42
Confused. Is the Forum an extra or do we stop using this page? Looks like the forum is an extra but needs conformation. Not keen on the idea of “double posting”. Unless i cant think i will stick with this blog for now.
#293
February 24th, 2012 19:44
Red Alligator: tick – tock, tick – tock. I’am waiting at the station for those top 10! (bet WER is No 1 but i have a feeling it just wont be that easy with that extra weight).
#294
February 24th, 2012 20:50
Bless you all.
This is not gn business but kj, i have the tiny one at 120/1 to win the gc and a unbelievable 50/1 for a place – hope he runs.
#295
February 24th, 2012 20:52
Prince de beauchene with only one run under his belt scored 9 points on our 31st dec table and now, without another run, has magically taken second place with 72 points. What’s afoot, have we all just discovered his potential at the same time or are some just following the bookies without any research. This i think makes the table very suspect – are we sheep or are we cute punters.
#296
February 24th, 2012 20:57
I napped him in round 1 so im pleading exemption from being a meeehhh … I think if he goes close tomorrow hes got a great chance of 10-6 . I do believe however he is plenty short enough based on what he has achieved . I believe the money for him is based on what he might yet be able to acheive.
#297
February 24th, 2012 21:14
Mike C; I don’t use Betfair but go to the bookies. I just wouldn’t trust myself if I could bet online [the guys on here know how many bets I end up having in the National and the, on the day itself I tend to have a few more!]. Anyways, tonight I finally got round to placing a few bets. Small ew’s WER; The Niche; Calgary Bay; Rare Bob;Fair Along; Roulez Cool;Killyglen; Quiscover Fonteyne and [this was a last minute impulse bet even tinier ew on Backstage, just in case Gordon Elliott has a ‘cunning plan’ about him. I like to think that most of them are pretty certain to run. Quiscover and dear little Fair Along are my ‘heart over head’ horses, and I’m not sure that I want to see Fair Along over those fences, and if he does I’ll be jumping each one with him!
#298
February 24th, 2012 21:15
#255 SYSTEMSMAN….JUNIOR since his win in the KIM MUIR last year DAVID PIPE has had a plan to arrive at the 2012GN in the best possible condition we have to trust DAVID PIPE he see’s the horse everyday in training,DAVID PIPE is not interested in running JUNIOR 4 or 5 times just so it fits into the STATS on this blog….as BON JOVI once said KEEP THE FAITH…………
#299
February 24th, 2012 21:26
WER is scheduled to run next in the Grimthorpe Chase next weekend, same as Killyglen (which should be interesting as Ive backed them both). Of course if they dont water and it ends up too fast they might go for an alternative.
#300
February 24th, 2012 21:27
I actually think Ruby Walsh will ride Prince De Beauchene. Thats why his odds are so low.
#301
February 24th, 2012 21:33
good one Miinne
Just checked the forum link here, seems like a few have had fun trying to sign up! the fun continues… may leave it a while, a splinter group has not yet formed.
Happy to continue posting here for now and agree no point in posting twice, but sounds good idea considering its not solved. Starting and joining conversations on topics one needs info on could be good as alot of interesting points get lost in the ruckus,… would be nice to get some answers to my questions too
#302
February 24th, 2012 21:37
Systemsman you say 12lb is harsh for WER, however he ran off 141 I think in the GN last year and started the race very nicely getting into a rhythm before being brought down.
So hes up 8lb from that winning by 22 lengths in the Becher up to this point. I still rate him highly even with the 8lb rise, just got this feeling the Aintree factor might swing it his way with a clean round. And when Alan King aims a horse for a race you have to take notice.
I had a similar feeling about Oscar Time this time last year, and he was loving it over those fences. Admittedly he didnt win but he was damn close!
#303
February 24th, 2012 21:39
THE BIG STAT RESULTS:
10TH : Prince De Beauchene +22 -5 = +17
9th : According To Pete +23 -6 = +17
8th : Junior +24 -7 = +17
7th : Rare Bob +23 -4 = +19
Very apparent that if he was in form at present he would be a real contender, only 3 negatives.
Top 6 to follow later, got to leave you in suspense a while.
#304
February 24th, 2012 21:42
interesting to see how ALPHA BEAT gets on in the BOBBYJO CHASE tomorrow,trainer SHARK HANLON not to happy with the heavy going, also the teams top tip PDB goes as well a couple of GN pointers me thinks not forgetting RARE BOB……ANY VIEWS
#305
February 24th, 2012 21:42
So WER does have an entry now,.. good.
Galileo- ‘as BON JOVI once said KEEP THE FAITH..’
its all a bit Spinal Tap isn’t it! I prefer a bit of Ron Burgandy jazz flute myself
#306
February 24th, 2012 21:44
Alan King said on weights day he was going for the Grimthorpe kj. Thats the last I heard.
#307
February 24th, 2012 21:46
Rare Bob needs to show more sparkle in his GN prep. If he does hes a contender for top 6 ‘cos he has the stats. Just need more spark from the old boy! lol
#308
February 24th, 2012 21:46
Oh Reds ‘BIG’ stats is happening…
Galileo- Bobbyjo is going to be telling again isn’t it! last yr it played out as I thought this yr… haven’t a clue… better look into it now.
Thanks Mike, I looked at his profile earlier and was worried to see no entries other than THE big one.
#309
February 24th, 2012 21:48
When Junior won the Kim Muir last year the first thing that came into my head was “2012 GN winner”. But as this season has gone on the less I fancy him. lol
#310
February 24th, 2012 21:49
Alan King better run him somewhere. A pony race in Brighton will do! lol
#311
February 24th, 2012 21:50
#280; can’t post on that one…
#312
February 24th, 2012 21:52
I hope WER ends up 2nd or 3rd in Red’s list. 1st will be the kiss of death! lol
#313
February 24th, 2012 22:14
THE BIG STAT TOP SIX:
5th= : Le Beau Bai +25 -6 = +19
5th= : Planet Of Sound +25 -6 = +19
The Final Four will be posted between 11pm-12pm midnight.
These are the 4 horses that should win you money.
#314
February 24th, 2012 22:19
Reading the sportinglife ..’a good run from Planet Of Sound on his first outing for nearly nine months.
A breathing problem seems to have been sorted out’
Not that it neccessarily makes a difference for now, but breathing problems are breathing problems. Its not a positive. I was unaware or forget this snippet for what its worth.
After the briefest of looks, I think he could win tmw.
As for the bobbyjo, I don’t fancy three of the first four in the betting, PDB aside. There is a handsome betting opportunity isn’t there!?!
Rare Bob needs to show us something a 1,2,3 really and I hope BA runs well after long lay off bless him. I thought TMC was running in this again?!
Red- you teaser you!
#315
February 24th, 2012 22:20
Mike N “A pony race in Brighton will do”. Hey if your gonna have a dig at a trainer’s prep, use your own home town as an example, not mine… anyway Fontwell on Sunday more likely than bumping around on the flat up on the downs at Brighton.
#316
February 24th, 2012 22:21
Nothing against Brighton mate, take it easy.
#317
February 24th, 2012 22:35
Come on Red – looks like I’m gonna miss the result tonight – it’s Friday night and the boozer’s calling.
#318
February 24th, 2012 22:40
But Red Alligator, Fair Along isn’t in your original list [or, if he is I can't see him]. However, don’t worry. After a few years one gets used to not finding the winner; trust me, I’m in the zone. T’is now a pleasant journey with good friends, but, alas, no crock of gold at the end of it these days.
#319
February 24th, 2012 23:11
RED I’AM TIRED ALREADY AND ITS ONLY 22.06. Midnight – it must be “star watching” for sure! WEA No 1?
#320
February 24th, 2012 23:44
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
#321
February 25th, 2012 00:00
One minute to go!
#322
February 25th, 2012 00:13
Wake up Red its gone 11pm!
#323
February 25th, 2012 00:23
im still here. just.
#324
February 25th, 2012 00:29
Me too….
#325
February 25th, 2012 00:32
Anyone think Rare Bob looks a decent EW @ 16/1 for the Bobbjo. 3 lbs better in with 2/1 fav PDB on GN OR’s.
#326
February 25th, 2012 00:35
i woudnt say a decent EW bet, not with the way he has been finishing his races of late. More like a sporting EW bet.
#327
February 25th, 2012 00:36
Mike, Thanks for the Grimthorpe info re WER’ next run.
#328
February 25th, 2012 00:37
Red’s probably gone to sleep. I will be before too long.
#329
February 25th, 2012 00:37
No worries Mike C. I hope he turns up.
#330
February 25th, 2012 00:38
True Mike. Tomorrow we’ll find out if they’ve been holding him back prior to weights day!
#331
February 25th, 2012 00:39
Tomorrow?
#332
February 25th, 2012 00:42
Pleased to see I have your attention, bet Peter The Pig logs when he comes back from the pub, no matter how may he has had. We are all obsessed!!
BIG STAT RESULT:
4TH Ballabriggs +26 – 6 = +20
3rd State Of Play +27 – 7 = +20
2nd Giles Cross +24 -3 = +21
1st West End Rocker +28 -7 = +21
Well thats it folks, or is it don’t forget I am waiting on some info. to add 3 more stats and then there is Prep runs to add nearer the time when State Of Play will loose a point as no 2-5 prep runs -1.
Also as horses run between now and the big race stats may change. I will update table after every horse runs, if a stat changes.
Also as horses run between now and the big race, quite a few this weekend I will be ch
#333
February 25th, 2012 00:43
oh no WER is top!! lol
#334
February 25th, 2012 00:55
One or two observations from the BIG STAT
I was a little shocked at how many positives there were for State Of Play (could he finally do it,who knows but certainly a good ew 40/1), also Ballabriggs despite the big weight, still has a lot in his favour, but again may lose a point on the prep runs stat.
Giles Cross (if soft and with a run) has to come into calculations, so few negatives.
Le Beau Bai (if soft, again few negatives,Prince De Beauchene few negatives, needs a few more positives, who knows he may get them yet.
Mon Mome had a lot of positives only 3 less than WER but a lot of negatives.
#335
February 25th, 2012 00:55
Thanks RA. I’ve backed & voted for 2 of top 4 & 3 of top 6 but still have reervations on all 3.
Giles cross
SOP
Le beau bai.
Interesting
#336
February 25th, 2012 00:59
“3rd State Of Play +27 – 7 = +20″
What that old donkey 3rd! OR 140 (will he get in even)?.
No runs again this season. Only four runs since April 2009 – your having a laugth! Age 12 should be collecting his old age pension for sure. Sorry but makes me suspicious of the whole scoring system.
Could be a case of overworking the stats.
Got to run before Red counter attacks.
#337
February 25th, 2012 01:15
No counter attack, to much respect for your knowledge and views. I admit to being surprised myself, still think not a bad e/w but admit I would be shocked if he won. One point I would make is and I havn’t watched it back from last year, but am I right in thinking he came from the clouds last year? If so what was his jockey doing so far back and could he stay closer up this year off what I Tthink would be his lowest weight, (assuming he gets in of course).
#338
February 25th, 2012 01:33
great work RA. my lack of backing WER looking legendary now! I have major issues with the next 4-5 winning for various reasons. if only it was this easy eh? But I have thought about it in lots of different ways and on trends alone WER is always there. He HAS to be the bet for me at 20/1! SO WHY HAVE I STILL NOT DONE IT!
#339
February 25th, 2012 01:43
looks like the bobbyjo chase has cut up and on ground that is officially soft but may be heavy i will probably be happy if PoB wins. his odds can tumble for all I care. alfa beat and rare bob wont be suited and BA off a 2 year absence. there is only one winner/loser in my mind to take out of this race.
#340
February 25th, 2012 01:50
hooray! you kept us hanging there,… for the inevitable WER outcome!
it was a bit like eurovision,… and 12 points goes to…… Greece! although maybe not after this yr.
Well done with your investigations so far RA
SOP may well not win, it would be astonishing to see a horse place 5 times! but he has a chance at a nice price. His problem certainly by last yr is he can’t go the early pace, but towards the tail end he looked like he was fired from a cannon!!!
Year on year a faster race recently, so he has arguably got better, certainly the finish rocked last yr! He’s had alot of luck to get through the mid field, but the front runners have had a few good yrs too. Can’t rule him out completely.
#341
February 25th, 2012 02:16
I’ve gone for POS tmw, probably throw some pennies at Rare Bob e/w in the bobbyjo tmw as will drift I hope, not on either for the GN.. eek
not been playing much, not familiar with most of the runners either, sorry I mean eider! not a hot race or am I too GN orientated?
Had a brief look at eider.. had no eidea it was on, I forgot, sorry ei forgot
Off to bed now,… thanks for setting me out on a late one REd! I need sleep and dreams.
#342
February 25th, 2012 07:51
KJ, Systemsman.
SOP proved he was a class horse when winning the Hennessy from Jevegneur carryinf 11-4 in a good time for the ground. He has been hugely handicapped for the GN by having to run fresh but his handicap mark was built in to tha by last year. SOP is at his best in soft ground. Last year I think it was riding G/F & he was caught for pace at a critical stage. My worry is all my 3 on top 6 list need soft conditions.
#343
February 25th, 2012 08:41
Mike C which 3
#344
February 25th, 2012 08:45
We Mike’s ever sleep. SOP,Giles Cross & Le Beau Bai. I think yours probably prefers soft too.
#345
February 25th, 2012 09:15
I only got WER in Red’s top 6
#346
February 25th, 2012 09:17
Sorry Ballabriggs too
#347
February 25th, 2012 09:37
Maybe someone can pop in & switch the sprinklers on for a week before the race. Actually, I think the gtoundsmen will do that for us this year!
Mike, 5 out of top 6 between is isn’t bad.
#348
February 25th, 2012 09:44
RA no I didn’t check back last night – the missus likes to stay at the boozer until the bitter end (well the bacardi and coke end to be accurate!) anyhows, I have only 1 of your top 6 … WER – mind you I still have the deeply unpopular always right in my top 6! Like yours, my stats can change right up to Chelts.
#349
February 25th, 2012 09:45
In case you have missed it Tharawaat is going at Fairyhouse 2m 4f hurdle race.
Ballyvesey ran yesterday in 3m 1/2f at Sandown came 7th hampered 1st ,chased leaders, ridden from 16th, 5th and struggling four out, weakened, tailed off.
#350
February 25th, 2012 09:52
Just for info.
2 Unfancied runners 3pm Fairyhouse today 2m 4f hurdle race Tharawaat.
Ballyvesey ran yesterday at Sandown over 3m, tailed off 7th.
#351
February 25th, 2012 11:19
The problem with checking past winners of the GN or past placers is that they will always look good if they have had little milage since that GN run (so be cautios when looking at them).This also applies to a runner who has a great run and then little milage (Junior is one example). Ballaggrigs, Mon Mome etc will always look good on stats as they fit the winning stats anyway as past winners but we have to ask what have they done since? For these type of runners its essential they show form THIS season which is why i look for a 1/2/3 in a chase preferably at 25f or more.
I have accepted that that we are unlikely to get to the bottom of our short list until the end of the cheltenham festival. POS may well get his 1/2/3 (could even win) today and will be even more populer but that 11.05 almost certainly means he will be more than 14lbs above botom weight and that puts me off – he is also at the very very top of an acceptable weight for a winner.
Just cant feel 100% about anything this year but do like WER (but no 1/2/3 with 17 runners or more and 12lbs extra for that last win)and Junior but he has yet to deliver this season but that is the master plan so we will wait and see (he has far more experiance than you first might think at very high levels in big fields). But as i say all my top runners have some sort of miner negative at best at this stage (i.e Shak, C.Grey both novice last season etc).
I think i need more help form our stats man crisp73.
crisp73 with so many stats/trends what are the key stats that you think we should look at say around about six/eight or so.
#352
February 25th, 2012 11:32
Prince De Beauchene entered for the Grand National & Irish National. My other leading fancies just going for Aintree.
With him running at Fairyhouse today should this be treated suspiciously?
#353
February 25th, 2012 12:01
Galileo Post 298
I for one have not lost the faith in Mr.Pipe or Junior, still think he could be the one.
Do think he must think a lot of his horse and the form it’s in/well being if he is considering Gold Cup that I must admit threw me a curve ball. Oh well all we can do is wait and see which race he goes for.
Thaimark Post 351
All you can think at moment is GN is his aim because he stated after weights that The Prince and On His Own were his best two. So he is probably keeping his options open with Irish and don’t forget he wouldn’t be the first to run him in the Irish after the GN if he came down early and was ok.
Systems Post 350
Totally agree your comments re.Ballabriggs & State Of Play in regard to them coming out well on a lot of stats.
Also agree all horses have negatives as well as positives.
Also agree some stats much more important than others.
Me personally I think a very important one was the stat “Good work at the finish over 3m 5f”.
Still think horses as far down as Niche Market 13th in THE BIG STAT but only 5 points behind the winner could catch up that deficit, so the top 13 in my stat interest me a lot. But saying that Seabass 24th may make up a lot of ground depending on what happens in the next few weeks.
#354
February 25th, 2012 13:52
Had the word/whisper…they took Seabass out of the Bobbyjo today not because worried about distance/opposition but are running it tomorrow at Nass so Ruby can ride it….which he would have done at Kempton if the ‘sarf’ hadn’t gone all early summer on us!!
No word on its next exact run but will be 3m (possibly+)…
The words ‘plot’ and ‘thickens’ spring to mind…
#355
February 25th, 2012 14:27
Systemsman the key stats aree here…
http://www.grandnational.org.uk/trends.php
I have gone through the field and the results have produced the following shortlist…
Planet Of Sound
Chicago Grey
According To Pete
West End Rocker
Always Right
Rare Bob
The Midnight Club
Treacle
Niche Market
Killyglen
Always Waining
Backstage
Giles Cross
Vic Venturi
57 (50+7 because National is a week later this year)days since last run rule will be applied nearer the time.
Obviously you dont have to go with the french bred or 8 yr old rule if you dont want to, but all the other stats are the killer ones.
#356
February 25th, 2012 14:30
folks….first official scratching is in
NORTHERN ALLIANCE scratched
looks like his heavy fall at Leopardstown may have proved a very sad one indeed
#357
February 25th, 2012 14:38
prince de beauchene 10-1 with bet 365. disgracefull considering how long till the national and b4 its even run today. my word if it wins today it could be 7-1 fav lol
#358
February 25th, 2012 15:00
Systemsman, I’m sure you’ll nail the winner with your system, at this stage we need a long list to
#359
February 25th, 2012 15:09
… to sift. I’ll have some time tomorrow hopefully if I can be of any use.
Prince De Beauchene- probably overhyped at the mo’, think he needs to win bobbyjo. If he does … that’ll be 4 wins from 13 chases, very good strike rates, won at 25f, seems to be ok on any surface, won a 34k h’cap with 15 runners, won a chase off OR143, would be probably at least 5lbs well in and have an RPR>GNOR at least 10 I would have thought and Ruby on board April 14th.
#360
February 25th, 2012 15:14
he has to win with authority to justify a GN price of 10-1.
#361
February 25th, 2012 15:16
Crisp73 look at my system. lol
#362
February 25th, 2012 15:19
ruby is a cert to ride if it gets a top 3 today. casey on on his own. 10-1 is still a disgrace tho. lucky i have 28s lol
#363
February 25th, 2012 15:37
I think the bobbyjo looks pretty weak, the market of drifters I completely agree with, only three in it!
I would have to see PDB and Rare Bob top3 or ‘very well schooled’ to be keen on either.
Have taken Rare Bob e/w in this, lets hope he comes out of hibernation like the rest of us today
Even ye olde Black Appalachi has a chance of top 3 in this…..I hope he shows them.
#364
February 25th, 2012 15:51
the GN market already thinks PDB has won the bobbyjo already! just incredible.
I am umming and erring over more AP value of POS that will dry up half way round the course today rofl!
#365
February 25th, 2012 15:57
if planet of sound wins expect him 2 b 16-1 or less in half an hour
#366
February 25th, 2012 15:58
Dont strike me as a 4m4 horse kj. keep yer money in your purse lol
#367
February 25th, 2012 16:13
POS ran ok. But I still dont think 4m4 is what he wants as i said 5 mins ago.
#368
February 25th, 2012 16:15
I am inclined to agree even tho he got into my top6 last time. Kayf Taras are nearly horses I keep thinking and as for getting the GN trip?! Seven Towers?
#369
February 25th, 2012 16:20
Thought POS ran quite well today considering Kempton isn’t his type of track and Hobbs is having a very poor season. Don’t think he’ll win GN but may place. Think Hobbs will have some very well-handicapped horses next season – going to lump on when his horses start to fire next season.
#370
February 25th, 2012 16:21
i think it needs further. got tired when they started going quick and thn ran on.
all about opinions this game lol
#371
February 25th, 2012 16:24
Is bobbyjo on tv? or shall I close oddschecker now
#372
February 25th, 2012 16:39
further than 3m maybe but 4m4f? you sure? lol
#373
February 25th, 2012 16:39
Wow, Prince de Beauchene absolutely hacked up. Good old Black Apalachi stayed on very nicely!
#374
February 25th, 2012 16:39
PdB detroys them. Never really asked a question
#375
February 25th, 2012 16:43
According to Seven Towers, who said Strong Gale horses dont have sufficient stamina, well Portrait King who ST said had a similar stamina pedigree to Killyglen has just stayed on over 4m1f and won the Eider. Im delighted as I am on Killyglen.
#376
February 25th, 2012 16:43
Prince de Beachene the one horse on my ante post list I didn’t bother to back yesterday! What price now?
#377
February 25th, 2012 16:44
wow Black Appalachi staying on second!
… Shame BA got 11-3, but might throw a few crumbs if price still good, as I did in this race 
however is that because it was a weak renewal.
PDB was obvious winner to all before he’d even stepped on the course, price crash continues? imagine so already 10s before
#378
February 25th, 2012 16:44
Did he win. Well he was about 6-4 today so no big surprise. He’s probably another Midnight Club. The short priced Walsh horse with all the hype. lol
#379
February 25th, 2012 16:46
Very nice Prince. Very Nice indeed …. getting exciting now .. He has to be on anyones list .. 10-6 ….!! ,,, Still one of many though who have a chance
#380
February 25th, 2012 16:48
hes as low as 7-1 now! lol
Wait til on the day if you fancy it. Get a run for your money.
As he’s french bred im probably gonna leave him alone.
#381
February 25th, 2012 16:57
Mike N- if TMC had taken to aintree or not scared himself putting his foot in a ditch early on,… I think he could well have won last yr to be fair.
Todays renewal as I said was weak affair. Everyone knew PDB should win, nothing proven really, but a nice prep, would like to know the time. No point in betting on him until week of race if your not already on. Has a good chance but 7-1!
#382
February 25th, 2012 17:00
thats the point though kj, you have to take to Aintree lol. And he didnt. So he didnt win.
Where did Rare Bob finish, was he far behind?
#383
February 25th, 2012 17:01
BA was 260-1 on betfair I think this morning… now 33. I have thrown nostalgic tiny biscuits (iced gems) at him at 50s e/w…. I had to Systemsman.
he owes me nothing.
28-1 e/w in bobbyjo today saved my skin
#384
February 25th, 2012 17:09
Hector’s Choice now qualifies……. leaving 6 not (yet) qualified.
#385
February 25th, 2012 17:18
Rare Bob looked good most of the way round I thought, jockey just sat, I was confident, then when race picked he fell back a bit and couldn’t go with it, not sure what to make of it. Other opinions wanted! Its not a 3m 1f race afterall.
so happy for him and my purse there.
In contrast Black Appalachi travelled well early then worryingly I thought, dropped to the back, but hung onto their coat tails adrift 6 lengths and as others weakened past all but one
Watching 4+1 apparently POS has been beaten off! err ok. Deep Purple ploughed thro the fence he fell at, red pen time. POS finished well enough but I am doubting his staying ability again.
Phil was maybe wise in terms of chances to keep a 13yr old who has been off course for 18mths+ on 11-3….. but still too cruel for me. Will they run after that encouraging run, I expect so.
#386
February 25th, 2012 17:23
Just seen the closing stages of the PDB race. Fair play to the horse, he had to do it with authority at 11-10 fav and thats what he did.
Might sneak into my top 6 after that.
#387
February 25th, 2012 17:24
PDB is obviously on good terms with himself but I would think that form is fairly worthless. What did he beat?
Black Apalachi a 13yo
Boston’s Angel, Magnanimity, Rare Bob – find me 3 horses in worse form if you can
Quarryvale – hopelessly outclassed
Roi Du Mee – no form over 3m whatsoever
Alfa Beat – wants good ground – Kerry National win on soft was a one-off
Not saying he won’t win the GN but I think his current price is a bit silly on the back of that race
#388
February 25th, 2012 17:36
Rare Bob finished about 13L behind PDB today at level weights. Looked like he couldve won another 10L if going flat out so make that 23L.
Rare Bob finiashed 59L behind WER in the Becher Chase giving 14lbs. Give Rare Bob 16L back for the weight concession which makes it 43L.
So as a WER fan, im not too worried.
#389
February 25th, 2012 17:45
If the right WER turns up on the right ground
#390
February 25th, 2012 17:47
Hopefully he wakes up on the right side of his barn on GN day, whilst the groundsmen put the expected taps on. lol
#391
February 25th, 2012 17:56
Do aintree have there own reservoirl ike everyone else wisely seem to have?.. they might need it.
Last yrs Bobbyjo was 6m47s this yr 7m05s.
#392
February 25th, 2012 17:57
My one worry with PdB is will he get 4m4f? Evidence is extremely limited
#393
February 25th, 2012 18:05
PDB being a half brother to Miko De Beauchene will get 4m i reckon. Its that last half mile I call no-mans-land that catches a lot of horses out.
#394
February 25th, 2012 18:28
now weve seen just about every horse out i can honestly say im happy with my 3 anti post bets.
which are : p d b 25/1
synchronised 40/1
calgary bay 33/1
i had a little it on wer a little while back @33/1
but my main 3 picks are above but will have 2 or 3 more, 1 of my own and 2 from the teams top 2 picks
#395
February 25th, 2012 18:31
Basic Grand National System update:
Prince De Beauchene now has full 3 stars and is in the likely winner catagory.
Negative: No 1/2/3 in chase with 17 or more runners. Now a silly price at 8/1 to 10/1 – whats up with the bookies this year?? (I think my decision to get on as early as possible this year is proving right have got PDB at 25/1).
No win at 26f or more
Positive: won at Aintrre last April.
Will post more on this one next week.
So glad Junior is not now Fav – its all down to his next race.
#396
February 25th, 2012 18:46
Prince De Beauchene hot Fav at a low price only did what was expected over 25f but he has never won at 26f or more and did not beat much today. To cap it all he is French Bred (Noooooo) and i already stated that i dont expect another French bred to win the GN so soon again. So while he is in my short list i am not getting too excited about my good anti post bet. Such a silly loooooooow price (due to the Ruby factor no doubt).
Now Junior is another matter – he IS exciting but MUST perform this season soon and will.
#397
February 25th, 2012 19:27
Just checked Betfair and Killyglen was available to back at 50.0! A bit of value there i think. There’s another fiver available if anyone is interested.
#398
February 25th, 2012 19:46
Good win by the prince. I agree with Pablo but from a stat point of view the win tick’s the last few boxes for him and so everything looks peachy, especially the 49 day stat and importantly he has won one of his 2 preps.
#399
February 25th, 2012 20:02
Wish I’d backed PDB at 28/1 on betfair when I considered it. I could lay it all off now for 150% profit. Crazy price for an overhyped, French bred with far worse credential than Le Beau Bai currently available at 70/1.
see post#277
#400
February 25th, 2012 20:07
surely it dont matter if its french bred? its only a stat. dont mean the horse is not quality. surely the main stats are if it jumps stays and has got good form.
#401
February 25th, 2012 20:09
i agree tho its a crazy price lol. bookies should be shot. any horse wins a race it goes to top 5 in betting lol
#402
February 25th, 2012 20:18
Hi GNA.
Its not a positive but my real point is what has PDB achieved. Its claim to fame was beating categorical at Aintree in the john smiths by 1 1/2 L.
Cat was beaten 15L by buffalo bob the other day who in turn was beaten 32L by Stewarts hse. With national course form should stewarts Hse be evens?
#403
February 25th, 2012 20:28
cheers Ewok, but im already on Killyglen.
#404
February 25th, 2012 20:32
Systemsman you say PDB is a silly low price and then mention Junior when Junior has been a silly low price all season lol, down as low at 12-1 before he had even run.
#405
February 25th, 2012 20:39
Any views on Hectors Choice? I was really impressed by today’s outing. I thought he was ridden to make the first four (rather than to win), to ensure qualification. Despite the tactics, and a bad mistake 3 out, he comfortably beat PoS by 6 lengths, getting 10lbs (he gets 8 lbs in the GN over a much longer distance.
The odds have barely budged but look too good to be true. Am I missing something?
#406
February 25th, 2012 20:40
Re post#277.
I think we should all be cautious about being influenced by positive statements from the trainers & jockeys. Most know less about their horses chances of winning the GN than we do. Venetia williams admitted she had no idea that Mon Mome would win & her stable jockey,Coleman chose to ride her other horse,Stan. I know some stables are canny but they don’t tell the press or their bookie contacts so everyone is in the dark until the day of the race eg Don’t push it.
Bookies often rely on their stable contacts so here again is where we have an advantage. We just have to use it and not fall into the hype traps!
#407
February 25th, 2012 20:45
ESB theres no way Hectors Choice is going to stay 4 and a half miles.
#408
February 25th, 2012 20:50
The french thing is a negative but in a much broader picture.
I am not knocking PDB potential but my main concern is what has he beaten! Only thing that stands out is the Peter Marsh he ran in aged 7, where he was beaten by alot of very good horses!
Could well be he will be better further and I think thats the real hope along with the nice 10-6. Certainly has form and jumping is fine, but missed the price anyway, I wasn’t convinced enough to go for it weights time, he was basically nailed on today and 10-1 before the off.. will see what happens now.
Certainly think the horse is glad to get a new life away from Howard Johnson ”retired” lol.
Not sure uber mentalist Tidal Bay is enjoying a change! ha, but what about the other fallout from Mr Johnsons yard? are they all doing well? how do you factor it in? has to be a positive on evidence for PDB today, but like I said no contest!
If he was still 25-1 I would still be thinking a bit.
#409
February 25th, 2012 20:53
Hectors jumping is a bit suspect isn’t it, lost him the race today. Francome said, if he jumps the first he’ll get in a rhythm and watch out for him. Then he fluffed the last
conclusion risky.
#410
February 25th, 2012 20:53
mike c.. i agree . it does not warrent to be fav. i dont care bout french bred but ur right. it has not done much to justify fav. its progressive thats all id say
#411
February 25th, 2012 21:03
Bookies prices seem determined to turn the GN into just another “big handicap” race and with the course changes it is slowly going that way even if its still a bit special being 4.5 miles. Expect the winner to be an aweful price in the top eight on the off and 20/1 or less (and no surpise if 16/1 or less).
#412
February 25th, 2012 21:05
Will try to work out THE BIG STAT changes asap, and comment on today’s runners. Sorry can’t bit busy this evening, may get half an hour at bedtime.
#413
February 25th, 2012 21:06
Some info on PDB
This from the RP Guide to The Jumps about PDB:
“Rounded off 2009-10 campaign with terrific win in heavy ground at Haydock and benefitted from step up to 3m 1f when back to winning ways at Aintree; expected to be even better back on more testing surface and sent to Ireland as a result.”
This from One Jump Ahead before last season (when trained by Howard Johnson):
“A very good horse who won a decent handicap at Haydock in the spring over two and a half miles. The key to him is heavy ground. We had been running him over 3 miles earlier in the season but he wasn’t quite getting home hence the decision to drop him back in trip. He is not short of speed and is one of our better chasers.”
And from today’s RP, Willie Mullins, trainer of Prince De Beauchene – “He’s in good form but probably likes better ground. He’ll love this trip, though, and should handle the track well.”
Seems opinion has been divided on PDB re ground and trip. But both trainers rate him highly though so 10’6 could be a great weight in GN.
#414
February 25th, 2012 21:07
Kj.
PDB was beaten 25+L by fellow 7 yr Palypso de creek in the Peter Marsh.
He was 66/1 off OR140 in the GN where he was well behind when falling 4 out.
That OR is exactly equivilent to PDP’ GN OR. So,on that form, if taken literally, PDB would finish 25L behind Palypso!
#415
February 25th, 2012 21:11
Quickie : Does anyone know how many career falls Deep Purple has now had ?
#416
February 25th, 2012 21:12
Pablo. They all rate him but I see no evidence on the form! Just opinion & Hype.
#417
February 25th, 2012 21:14
#213
miinnehoma
October 29th, 2011 01:38
Prince De Beauchene down to 75/1 from 200 odd on Betfair.
#325
miinnehoma
November 16th, 2011 17:43
Anybody have any news on Prince De Beauchene, what’s afoot, was over 200/1 at one stage now only 36/1 – yesterday he was as low as 20/1.
#418
February 25th, 2012 21:53
RA. Deep purple only unseated once before today’s fall.
#419
February 25th, 2012 22:20
all pdb could do was win it’s race but it was a poor race,a lot of the horses didn’t like the heavy going ALPHA BEAT was tailed off and pulled up,SHARK HANLON did say that he was worried about the going but needed to get a run into him,the horse needs good ground and if he get’s it at AINTREE he can be in the shake-up……….
#420
February 25th, 2012 22:44
Great to see PDB win today. Price now is very very skinny to say the least but not sure Mullins cud have wished for a better prep run, in all honesty. To say he is another midnight club, cud be taken as a compliment, but in reality it’s just a silly comment to make as there r huge differences between them. PDB is going to National on his own merit, with perfect prep, maybe the best jockey (in my opinion), and has a touch of class. Now can it stay? does it have a burst of speed at the end? and does it have a bit of “the luck of the Irish” in the race itself. All willbe revealed. I’m excitedly going to sleep in a Somerset hotel before my trip to ditcheat tomorrow to meet a couple of national hunt greats, hope I sleep fast.
#421
February 26th, 2012 00:43
Hi guys I was massively impressed with The Prince as soon as he crossed the line I asked for a price (in Corals at the time)topped up with another 20 quid at 16/1 only to here a tannoy announcement, ten minutes later that the price had gone down to 12/1, seriously guys can you believe it.
Anyway I here what some of you are saying, who did he beat etc. but I tell you he already had the third least negatives and now it is the second least after today. Amended table to follow.
Planet of Sound ok neither made me want to back or completely rule out.
Black Apalachi – Good run after so long out but did it compare to Burton Port’s ?
Deep Purple – Out of my top six and won’t be backing!
Rare Bob – Still not doing enough to make me want to back.
Alfa Beat – Don’t fancy anyway, but ok ground was not to his liking, do I see as the winner no!
After today will be surprised if The Prince is not in everybody’s next top six!
Is it just Seabass tomorrow ?
#422
February 26th, 2012 01:13
THE BIG STAT – AMENDED TABLE
1ST: West End Rocker +28 -7 = +21
2nd: Planet Of Sound +26 -5 = +21
3rd: Giles Cross +24 -3 = +21
4th: State Of Play +27 -7 = +20
5th: Ballabriggs +26 -6 = +20
6th: Le Beau Bai +25 -6 = +19
7th:= Prince De Beauchene +23 -4 = +19
7th:= Rare Bob +23 -4 = +19
9th:= Junior +24 -7 = +17
10th: According To Pete +23 -6 = +17
11th: Mon Mome +25 -9 = +16
12th:= Synchronised +24 -8 = +16
12th:= Chicago Grey +24 -8 = +16
14th:= Uncle Junior +23 -7 = +16
14th:= Niche Market +23 -7 = +16
14th:= Midnight Chase +23 -7 = +16
17th: Shakalakaboomboom +22 -8 = +14
18th: Massini’s Maguire +21 -8 = +13
19th: Hold On Julio +20 -7 = +13
20th: Deep Purple +22 -10= +12
21st:= Killyglen +21 -9 = +12
21st:= Always Right +21 -9 = +12
23rd:= The Midnight Club +20 -8 = +12
23rd:= Treacle +20 -9 = +12
25th: Seabass +19 -7 = +12
To be continued tomorrow.
#423
February 26th, 2012 09:33
More Great work Red.
Last point re PDB.
For me, it would take a leap of faith that Mullins had improved this horse, and/or PDB will improve for GN fences and distance. Form lines through Some Target give it 8L to find with Le Beau Bai for 1 lbs better & 20L with Giles Cross on 1 lbs. in heavy/soft. A line through Reve de Sivola gives PDB a 20L advantage over Fair Along in Good Ground but Fair along is 10 lbs better off. That was PDB’ best run at Aintree against Fair Alongs worst in a 3 ml+ chase. I refused to back Ballabriggs last year for the same reasons so !??
#424
February 26th, 2012 09:58
Mike post 423
Thanks, ever changing picture.
Ground – Very inlikely to be Firm or Heavy, would probabaly have to be extremely Hot & Sunny in the the few hours before the race or persisting down on the day. Either way I am sure we would all take a last minute view.
So we look at GOOD/GOOD TO SOFT/SOFT.
I would like to know first of all whether all would agree that in a SOFT ground GN we wold have a totally different TOP SIX.
Mine would be.
1.West End Rocker
2.Giles Cross
3.Prince De Beauchene
4.Le Beau Bai
5.Synchronised (With a run)
6.According To Pete or maybe Seabass depending on whether he proves himself over 3 miles.
Opinions guys. Think this is an important debate to have as I think in SOFT all our discussions up to the day would end up meaningless, so maybe we should take a vote, maybe one now, one after Cheltenham and last vote on the Thursday/Friday if SOFT looks likely/possible. What do you think guys?
#425
February 26th, 2012 10:18
Soft Nationals are the easiest [think Earth Summit] because it rules out so many horses; Red Marauder being the exception, being a completely freak race. I’d love to see a Giles Cross or a Le Beau Bai type win it again!
#426
February 26th, 2012 10:54
Can anyone help on the conditions of the Bobbyjo race? PDB won off an OR of 143 according to Racing Post, but does this count as a handicap race?
It wasn’t run off even weights, so I think it should be a handicap or am I missing something?
If it counts as a handicap win it gives PDB a big +ve on my stats for winning a handicap at an OR 139 or above. His previous highest OR for a chase win was 138 in the John Smiths last year.
Thanks to all who reply.
#427
February 26th, 2012 11:42
Just seen Midnight Chase @ 80′s with Unibet. Given all the lengthy chat on Mon Mome and Fair Along I can’t understand why a horse with such pedigree is such a long price. Thoughts?
#428
February 26th, 2012 11:43
PtP.
No, its not a handicap. Its a Class 1,Grade 2 chase.
#429
February 26th, 2012 11:53
Coatseylad.
A line through knockara Beau gives Midnight chase a 21.5L advantage over Fair Along who is 11 lbs better at the weights. Close, but Midnight Chase always runs to a much better mark at Chelt. Will he be as good around Aintree & 11-8 is a lot to carry.
#430
February 26th, 2012 12:04
MC. Its all about opinions and searching out some value! Personally I’m still keeping a close watch on two relative outsiders that still offer some value. Uncle Junior and Roulez Cool. Of the main protaganists, little mention is ever made of Hold on Julio but I definately think he’s one to watch.
#431
February 26th, 2012 12:08
Just seen that Minsk is now out of the Triumph Hurdle….damn it!
#432
February 26th, 2012 12:32
Red Alligator regarding your top 6 on soft ground. Agreed that the top 6 would be different overall, but 3 of those you mention according to their trainers wont be inconvenienced by good/good to soft – According To Pete, PDB and WER.
#433
February 26th, 2012 12:37
Coatseylad.
I’m not suggesting that I’m right or others are wrong;just delivering different angles/opinions for others to throw into the melting pot, if they wish, so collectively we can reach the most informed decisions. I recently used Fair Along as a yardstick to assess the chances of itself and others but I’m still not ‘sold’ on its chances myself, even if it runs. I am hopeful that there is still some good value out there & that the winner may not be in the first half dozen in the betting at the moment. Plenty more to unfold!
#434
February 26th, 2012 12:45
According to connections Silver By Nature would handle the ground at Aintree – possibly the biggest load of bs ever spouted by connections about the GN.
And as above Howard Johnson and Willie Mullins disagree about PDB’s best trip and ground.
Trainers often talk sh*te imo.
#435
February 26th, 2012 12:51
Thanks Coutseylad.
Minsk is a good example of an overhyped horse by trainer & media. 1-2 on antipost for yesterdays race but drifted on the day & lost. Was the e earlier info; best horse I’ve ever trained etc, all nonsense just to lure us in?
#436
February 26th, 2012 12:58
Pablo, Just so. Old adage – Don’t believe everything you read!
#437
February 26th, 2012 13:35
Careful Pablo, some people on this blog wouldn’t hear that type of talk last year about Silver by Nature !!
#438
February 26th, 2012 13:42
Mike I know 3 of them would probably not be inconvenienced, you missed my point, trying to open a SOFT debate.
Back to today just read Racing Post they seem to think Ruby will probably ride The Prince.
But he could still ride Seabass anybody who wants anything like a decent price on this horse, better do it right now this morning because if he beats Tranquil Sea today in a higher grade despite the fact it’s over a low distance, he’ll be vying for favouritsm just in case Ruby chooses him. I know it’s crazy because it would take some VERY LEFT FIELD THINKING to see him winning the BIG ONE but my advice to anyone even considering a saver, get on now as he will half in price if he wins easily today. I know it doesn’t make sense. Do you agree Bovril and have you a clue what Ted is playing at? I read today he has wona point to point over 3m is this true and what’ispers the wh
#439
February 26th, 2012 13:49
1 – 8 to 12 years old
2 – handicap rating above 136 on the day
3 – weight of 11 stone 5lb or under (OR156)
4 – won over at least three miles
5 – run in at least nine chases
6 – won a chase worth at least £20K (29k is 9/9 but prizes have dropped last 18 months).
+ prep runs from 1st Sept.
156 Alfa Beat – 1UP
156 Planet Of Sound – 23
155 Roberto Goldback – 39432
154 Deep Purple – 1F
153 Scotsirish – 63144
152 Apt Approach – 1113
150 Chicago Grey – U3732
149 Shaka – 12
149 West End Rocker – P1
149 According To Pete – 3711
148 Massini’s Maguire – P1
147 Always Right – 1PP
146 Rare Bob – 4505
145 The Midnight Club – BD43
145 Mon Mome – 52PP
145 Treacle – 1423
144 Arbor Supreme – 60
144 Cooldine – 2394
143 Prince De Beauchene – 51
142 Niche Market – 92
141 Fair Along – 2634
141 Killyglen – 3034
140 Always Waining – 844
140 State Of Play –
140 Le Beau Bai – 0P7113
139 The Package –
138 Backstage – 111111 (all ptp)
138 Giles Cross – 121
137 Vic Venturi – (11)0
136 Qhilimar – 12003P
#440
February 26th, 2012 13:53
Red, In my top 6 I went for 3 Soft ground horses:
Giles cross
Le BB
State of play (First two dead in water if not soft- excuse pun)
The Niche, The Mid Club,Fair Along- happy on Good.
#441
February 26th, 2012 15:21
I still like Planet Of Sound, good run in third on good going. Prince De Beauchene was on Soft to Heavy and looked slow.
#442
February 26th, 2012 15:23
Hold On Julio entry depends on his next run and could be pulled out, if he doesn’t please Mr King.
#443
February 26th, 2012 15:41
Minne- I like your plain stats for us all to look at. It gives me a bit of clarity after I get in another pickle!
Yesterday, I was thinking things are definately changing in my head, possibly because a few are slipping out of the picture from yesterdays runs and typically I start reconsidering others…. namely I am getting keen on According to Pete and keep wondering about the cross country route, my prefered one there being Scotsirish. They certainly have got match fit looking at Miine list.
#444
February 26th, 2012 15:46
Seabass swims today.
#445
February 26th, 2012 15:48
Red; it’s been bothering me all day that I only have another hour or so to get some money on Seebass, and, if I don’t will probably have not backed ante two horses that could vie for favouritism on National day, having been told about them for weeks/months.
#446
February 26th, 2012 16:03
Although I like seabass for dinner, I have little idea of the horses potential to bridge the gap and thought a TS of 110 was worryingly slow, says 84! on RP GN card?!
…. and general 25-1 for the GN doesn’t seem too reasonable, theres plenty to like at that price, whispers even from Trainers is not something I used to deal with 
Kind of been watching this too Maureen,… 6/4 today isn’t my bag as the kids say, or am I showing my age
#447
February 26th, 2012 16:09
RE Scotsirish
my main question with him is…has any horse won the GN after 38 chases?
22 1/2/3s ain’t bad strike rate
#448
February 26th, 2012 16:27
Kj, monty’s pass 41 chases with 7 wins and amberleigh house 37 chases with 5 wins.
scotsirish not for me, has run in too many c1 races.
#449
February 26th, 2012 16:27
I meant ante post for the National kj.25/1 is a good price for a horse that could be anything. 25 pence ew bets are no good at 6/4!
#450
February 26th, 2012 17:15
Oh heck; phone always rings when there’s an important race on. Guys from William Hill radio didn’t even know Seabass was in the National. What price now? Probably the most progressive horse in training at the moment.
#451
February 26th, 2012 17:33
Whats the situation with the threads now are we still on here or have most moved over to this forum thing?
#452
February 26th, 2012 17:50
I tried to sign up just now, looks like I would need a new username or something, like others reported, may wait and see what admin says. We all seem to be here still
Oddly I have had no trouble at all posting here all weekend!!?
#453
February 26th, 2012 18:13
Seabass won as I expected, just watched it on ATR. Nice little bonny horse, but this showed me little tho being 2m, popping the fences in a style incomparible to aintree demands,. really not sure as with any runs this weekend… except guttsy BA
PDB little opposition, others seemed to run out of puff.
#454
February 26th, 2012 18:17
I see good old whisper comes good again….what a horse…Seabass eh….??!! Am quids in hehe
Time to digest the w/end:
You can’t fail to be impressed by Prince De B yesterday…and it seems to be the Mullins steamer….but it was soft and not Aintree going. IMO old Black App. ran a great staying race and he will be my pick of the old timers (rather than Mon Mome or State Of Play) to maybe sneak a place.
Rare Bob well beat (but nowhere near as far as by Seabass) and Alpha Beat…v. poor.
Kempton: Thought both Hectors Choice and Planet Of S. ran fair to good preps on ground closer to Aintree and the winner is a v decent horse so no disgrace…
Deep Purple v. disappointing (not the same since Richie Blackmore left…) and best forgotten.
Today: It was only 2 miles but Seabass now has extended his sequence and won like a stayer (heeaded back to third between the last 2 and stayed on v. strongly) and what else can it do other than win??
It has an entry in the 3m handicap on Chelt first day (thinking is you get the softer going onthe Tue) but have heard they wont go across if no rain.
My worries are it needs a run over 3m (+) and that now Prince De B has shown itslf then Ruby might be required elsewhere.
I will re-emphasise that I bought you the whisper way before its last 2 runs and before GN entries published but AM STILL NOT tipping it as the GN winner…just informing you of good info and enjoying the ride (had 9/4 a.p. for today!!)
Enjoy!!!
#455
February 26th, 2012 18:23
Re Prince De B:
He would have to be the stats buster as only 2 runs…but if I have read the thread right people are more accepting that 1 stat wiill usually be bust wide open year on year as we have found last 3 or 4 years.
Also he beat Rare Bob by 15l…Seabass beat it by 55l (28/0)…..bald form comparison yes…but big difference…
#456
February 26th, 2012 18:24
Grrrr 28/01 that should have read….
#457
February 26th, 2012 18:31
Pablo: Re SBN
The statements re the ground were if it had been watered and a bit of rain. It was fast going.
The horse hasnt been out since as it injured itself (bit like N. Market in 2010…although that seems to be allowed as an ‘excuse’) during the race and came home where it did. Of course it wouldnt have won or prob. placed either on that ground but it wouldn’t have run the stinker it did….
As to PDB as said above it was impressive but we would have to take the trainers word it will go on Aintree ground. At least Ted W has shouted at us from the rooftops (as in taking Seabass out of Kempton race) that it needs soft/er ground and to hold fire till GN.
#458
February 26th, 2012 19:24
Seabass looks to me to be one of these 2 1/2 milers that trainers put in the race, year on year. Yes he was third in a poor 3 miles race at Thurles earning a rating from racing post of 114 but since then it’s all been 2 1/2 miles give or take a furlong.
Come Aintree Ruby will probably elect to ride Prince De Beauchene, who ran well yesterday but the going is my main concern, in fact most of the winter has been bad weather wise. Meaning all winter horses have ran on either soft going or heavy going. The going on April 14th will be Good to Soft, which is what the ground staff at Aintree have been told they got to produce. Since Aintree has it’s own water supply this will not be a problem.
Planet Of Sound Hennessy run and yesterday’s run in the Racing Post Chase was on good ground and I thought was solid runs.
#459
February 26th, 2012 20:15
ruby is quoted as 1/3 on to ride pdb.
#460
February 26th, 2012 20:16
Seabass won’t stay 4miles 4 furlongs in a million years ,still think ballabriggs will be the horse to beat along with Capps bleu chasing him home
#461
February 26th, 2012 20:20
Just updating my ‘staying on’ spreadsheet. Apart from the 4 in the Bobbyjo, have any other national entrants raced over 3m+ chase in the last few days?
#462
February 26th, 2012 21:17
Big Liverpool fan I know we were lucky today, had a few so won’t dwell, don’t laugh Bovril, but I just love u and you’re Seabass I won another 30 squid today. Bovril best tip ever I have now won a couple of ton thanks to u, If I ever meet u I owe u a very large one and a pint. Back to Seabass if it runs in GN I might have to not watch the race, still haven’t seen it run and it keeps winning. Being a complete tart can u describe it to me has it got four legs and is very attractive. Told u I’d had a few!
#463
February 26th, 2012 21:30
if dont push it can win it carrying 11 stone 5 buy five lengths as a ten year old and come third carrying 11 stone 10, 14 and a 1/4 lengths behind the winner as a 11 year old .. why cant synchronised win it carrying 11 stone 10 as a nine year the perfect grand national age.being that his got bags of stamina and is a very good weight carrier for me i think that its a stat that’s gonna go. i still stick by him as my no1 pick if he comes out of the gold cup well . im only bringing it up because i think a lot of the team are dismissing him too easily because of the weight he is carrying.. teams views if any.?
#464
February 26th, 2012 21:51
Sling-Shot01
I may be gauging this wrong, but I am a massive SYNCH. fan, just like everyone else bothered he is going for Gold Cup.
However 20/1 which u can get now may look a great price if he wins. Unfortunately if u like him for the win even with the weight, u will have to take advantage of the 20/1 because unlikely to get better and if he either does well or doesn’t have a hard Gold CUP he will end up 10/1.
He has proved he can carry the weight over a long distance!!
#465
February 26th, 2012 21:56
11.10 is a massive weight i think. dont push it won with 11-5 and most other class horses had simular or only a few pound better off. what did black apalachi carry for example? this year u have got so many top horses with less than 11stone. so the dif between prince de beachene for example is a massive 18lbs. 18lbs over 4m 4f especially on the run in is huge. not only prince de beachene there are at least 6 with a stone better off who can win this
#466
February 26th, 2012 22:02
Synchronised has top weight and jumps low. Not what you want. And he probably wont run anyway.
#467
February 26th, 2012 22:16
ive got lots of 40/1 so a place and i will be quids in .Still think he can win it
#468
February 26th, 2012 22:22
agree Mike N.. jumps too low. id be amazed if he made the 1st 3. as top weight horses go its 1 of the worst i think. when u think of hedgehunter and denman etc who have been entered and alloted top weight. it jumps far to low and wont have the speed to keep up for 4m 4f with top weight on good ground. i hope it runs tho
dont want the weights up another pound lol.
#469
February 26th, 2012 22:43
I would be interested to know what people make of STEWARTS HOUSE?
I gave him 4pts on the voting page but only 1 other person has selected him.
He ticks many of the right boxes in terms of age, experience, class 1 win, big field form, Aintree form etc but the 3m+ win is not on his CV. I watched his win in the Sefton again last night and I thought it was very impressive. The others that were up with the early pace and those carrying more than 11st were nowhere come the finish. The second and third came from way off the pace and had pretty light weights, so for him to hold them off with 11-8 after being up there throughout was a serious run. Ok so the race was only 21f, but to stay-on through the mud under 11-8 after being up with the pace suggests that he doesn’t lack for stamina. He jumped the fences very well in the main and this has clearly been the target since. Gets in off 142 which is probably stiff enough but Tim Vaughan (and previous trainer Arthur Moore) both state he’s a better horse on decent ground. I think he’s one of the more interestng of the big (50/1+) outsiders.
#470
February 26th, 2012 22:46
Seabass: now lets not carried away with another (like PDB) easy win by a clear Fav over 2miles (!!). Seabass was Novice last season and these type of runners (Shaka, C. Grey – but these two do look resonable) always look good as they are progressive until they take on the big boys over 26f or more in a Han chase. A Novice last season can win but it so much harder (when was the last one?) and i think you need to see some form over 26f or more.
Seebass has no form over 25f or more (especiely this season) a big no. Has only run in four races (chase + hurdles) of 24f or more. TS 110 unless its up after today (far too low unless its gone up). Has no key race 1/2/3 or 1/2/3 at Aintree which is a big +. He certainly in form thats for sure and a progresive ex Novice (but we have seen all that many times). A 11111 form line for a GN winner is very odd indeed!! (to say the least). Have no doubt this horse can manage 24f or maybe a bit longer but no evidence at all it can manage 28f or more against serious opposition.
Not for me but once gain his price will take the pressure of a few others (WER/Junior/ATP etc).
#471
February 26th, 2012 22:59
“Red Alligator
February 26th, 2012 01:13
THE BIG STAT – AMENDED TABLE
1ST: West End Rocker +28 -7 = +21
2nd: Planet Of Sound +26 -5 = +21
3rd: Giles Cross +24 -3 = +21
4th: State Of Play +27 -7 = +20
5th: Ballabriggs +26 -6 = +20
6th: Le Beau Bai +25 -6 = +19
7th:= Prince De Beauchene +23 -4 = +19
7th:= Rare Bob +23 -4 = +19
9th:= Junior +24 -7 = +17
10th: According To Pete +23 -6 = +17
11th: Mon Mome +25 -9 = +16
12th:= Synchronised +24 -8 = +16
12th:= Chicago Grey +24 -8 = +16″
Red my Basic GN System has 7 from your top 10 and 8 from your top 13 so i am hopefull (just need to wittle it down a little). It shows that if its a trends/stats winner we probably hav ethat runner in our lists.
However i amd still not happy with my short list almost every runner has something wrong including WER. It got me thinking today that we could be missing the obvious (I did say this year i would not exclude anything for consideration). The obvious was pointed out very early by my mate Showlad and that is Synchronised. If a stat is broken that stat may be the 11.05 barrier and Synchronsied meets every other test. If he misses the Gold Cup or has an easy run then hes the one big weight that would worry me every inch of the race. Its possible and we should consider it (but not if he has a very hard race in the Gold Cup). It goes aginst all my stats/trends but all thats stopping it being in my list is its over 11.05.
At this stage even if for a good “saver bet” i do need to think outside the box and think the unthinkable – a far better “safety bet” than PDB or Seabass for sure.
#472
February 26th, 2012 23:30
Systemsman stick with the stats ive been putting up. They are the tried and tested ones in the main. If you start thinking outside the box you describe your shortlist will be too big and you will be more confused.
#473
February 26th, 2012 23:44
systemsman i couldnt agree with showlad anymore, weve singing from the same hymn sheet, you can still get 25/1 from the main bookies and even more from others like betfair. i will be sticking with the main stats bar the weight one. for the last three years ive over worked the stats although ive had places each year, ive not had the winner, prior to that i had a five year win streak by following stats, but for the stats are starting to go by the way side the only three that will stay will be the age one, the chase one and the prize money one.
just my opinion
#474
February 27th, 2012 00:06
DPI broke a weight trend but he was still only 14lb above bottom weight, that stat has stood since Grittar in 1982 if I’m not mistaken?? Synch as good as Redrum??!
#475
February 27th, 2012 00:13
I think it’s a big ask, asking Synchronised to win both the Gold Cup and Grand National in same season, and the only horse to do it in history is Golden Miller.
To be honest, if you had to choose between the two, most people would choose Gold Cup, as I ass-u-me Graham does. This could see the weights rise by 1 pound as Ballabriggs has something to go for and is not quite in the same league as Gold Cup (no offence, meant). Plus a trainer who family has deep routes with Grand National.
#476
February 27th, 2012 00:30
I accept all that has been said re Seabass but its been a great and profitable ride so far!!
I just dont think the trainer would contemplate the plot if he didnt think the horse would get the trip. It isnt the owners who planned this , he has suggested it to them.
In his 3m runs he has beaten Becauseicouldnt…who we know gets 4m…and has a direct form line with Shaka via Chasing Cars (ie the beating of Shaka by 20+l)but I accept Shaka has improved a lot since last years Topham.
Irish P2P’s can be as good as a class3 chase over here and are way way ahead in class than a Brit P2P…so in my view its legit. form and very cleverly they ran Seabass in P2P to keep it ahead of handicapper as did its fall at the last when going away infront before his 7 timer.
Think the bookies are offering stupid prices on one level but my final point is A/P money (in any decent amount) mostly tends to be from people who have a clue (not the weight of money that brings a price in with the housewifes choice on the day) so the support it has had must indicate that enough people who have a clue think it may well stay! Personally my jury is out on that but it all still adds up so far re all have been whispered!
Red A; My man!! From the day I met Roger Hunt as a 4 year old (he was courting the daughter of the woman next door but 1 to my gran)I have been Liverpool through and through and it is my pure delight to have given you the Seabass info too!!
As we keep saying, Aintree may be its pratfall but at least you have listened and profited …rather than some of the cynical sneers we get…and hopefully you noted my Treacle info(way before it came in as I got 100′s) and hot tip/whisper of Chapoturgeon for Chelt/Aint Foxhunters (I have 20′s)and it is now generally 8/1 (I gave the thread the shout 18/01)….
Whatever happens to Seabass its been a great ride but my sneaking feeling is 2013 might be an even better bet….
#477
February 27th, 2012 00:35
Synchronised was one pace at Uttoxeter in his penultimate run.
This was just Synchronised´s second outing over fences since taking the race on desperate ground last term and a 9lb rise for winning the Welsh National took him to a 16lb higher mark for his repeat bid. He was very well backed earlier in the day, but the drying surface was a big concern and it no doubt cost him a follow-up success. He looked like he may pull up when getting so farbehind from halfway, but he showed tremendous courage to get back into contention from five out and emerges with a lot of credit.
#478
February 27th, 2012 00:50
On the bright side if you are a Synchronised fan with an EW bet at a decent price then 2nd,3rd,4th is always possible with a run as these positions can fall to any horse whether in the trends or not.
he just isnt for me as a win shortlist choice.
#479
February 27th, 2012 00:53
Thank you Red A!!
Glad you are not one of the half cynical sneerers who ignore a solid gold whisper! I keep saying am not tipping the horse for GN but it seems to be ignored!!
The horse (Seabass) also IS NOT an owners demanding a GN day out it is a trainer plot and he must think it will get the trip as why bother?? My personal jury is still very out on that but there are signs.
Irish P2P’s are as good as a Eng class 3 chase and Seabass has 3 runs over 3m in them with a 211 record. Also in filthy going (P2P courses dont have expensive drainage/ground keepers as proper courses.
It also ran 4 times in 22 days (total 85f) in mainly heavy going with a 3F(at last going away to win)11 record so the horse has stamina.
It ISNT enough to make it a GN winner but it suggests why this route has been taken.
It WONT run on good and better ground.
Ruby W has obligation to Willie M so now his steamer has emerged (PDB) then Seabass would need a jock. Katie is great but 2 falls over Aintree fences. Also with the best (with AP) rider ever on board dont people think he would say to dad ‘this nag wont ever get 28f let alone 36f’…if he thought that??? So game/plot over??
I re-emphasise AM NOT tipping the horse but underlining why this isnt a tilt at a windmill.
Also Red A…I go back as far as Hunt, St John, Yeats, Callaghan, Lawrence, Thompson etc etc re Liverpool so am with you on both counts!!
Cheers my friend and may Seabass keep is well in profit and actually see if you can get a price for 2013…that might be the one!!!
#480
February 27th, 2012 01:33
Watched the midlands grand national last year with synchronised and thought i was looking at 2012 national winner .He come third but winner mfs was carying 9-9 with a 5 pound claimer and second ballyfitz 10-0 synchronised 11-12
#481
February 27th, 2012 04:08
My pleasure Red A!!
Am a Liverpool fan too (since 1965 and meeting Roger Hunt who courted the girl next door but 1 to my gran) so not a bad day eh?;)
#482
February 27th, 2012 04:11
Seabass is in line for a crack at the John Smith’s Grand National after stretching his unbeaten run to seven in the paddypower.com Chase at Naas.
The four-and-a-half-mile spectacular at Aintree may be a totally different test to this Grade Two contest over two miles – but trainer Ted Walsh believes it is worth a try.
And Walsh knows what it takes, having tasted National glory in 2000 with Papillon, who had finished fourth in this race in his glory season.
“Seabass got under the last but was gutsy. He was out of his comfort zone over two miles and was going faster than he wanted to go, but battled well,” said the trainer.
“Maybe some of the other horses weren’t as good as they used to be, but he was won 120,00 euro since he won his point to point and that’s not bad!
“If he stays sound, we’ll go to Aintree for the Grand National.
“There’s no ideal type of horse for that race, you won’t know until you get there.
“Nobody knows if he’ll get the trip, he’s never been beyond three miles, but I imagine looking at him he is the right type.
“However, the biggest problem is keeping him sound – he has been on the ‘scrap heap’ three times already.”
Walsh acknowledged that his son might be committed to a horse at Aintree trained either by Willie Mullins or Paul Nicholls.
Should that be the case, Walsh senior would hand the ride to his daughter, Katie.
He added: “The choice will be be Ruby’s and he rides for Willie (Mullins) or Paul (Nicholls) but if for some reason they went by the wayside he might decide to ride this fellow. If he doesn’t, I have a very able substitute in Katie.”
#483
February 27th, 2012 04:23
Here is a poser:
How many horses who win at 4m and + go on to win again at 4m and + in recent years?
Comply or Die (Eider then GN) is only one can think of.
#484
February 27th, 2012 09:42
Is everyone going to migrate to the new forum?
It is far more dynamic than this as you can start your own threads and there is not the problem of posts disappearing/not posting.
#485
February 27th, 2012 10:58
I’m going to stay here, even if it means talking to myself.
#486
February 27th, 2012 11:04
Just to say that should this blog “go down” near to the time of the GN (and it has happened – it can get overwelmed with posts) then use the new Forum as a backup for posting until things gets sorted. So you need the save the Forum address in your Fav list on your computer or you will forget where it is. Hoepfully we will not have to do this but you never know.
I think the Forum will be useful early next season when we can create a page for each runner and all the facts/info etc will be on that one page for that one runnera swell as the more general chat on this blog (it could become our “information bank” which we refer to from this blog).
#487
February 27th, 2012 11:06
bad news
Chicago Grey will head straight for the John Smith’s Grand National after delighting connections in his final run before the Aintree spectacular.
49 days anyone?
#488
February 27th, 2012 11:12
I’am staying on this blog but am happy to take part in the forum. May post up a page on Junior soon but will repost here as well (see the problem?). As I say I think it will be very useful for an information bank (we can set up a “key stats” page for sure or even a pre xmas stats/by weight day stats/by GN race day stats pages. Am sure its going to come into its own but may take another year to get into full swing.
#489
February 27th, 2012 11:14
“baggy352
February 27th, 2012 11:06
bad news
Chicago Grey will head straight for the John Smith’s Grand National after delighting connections in his final run before the Aintree spectacular.
49 days anyone?”
A littel confused did CG run more than 50 days (i think its 50 is it not?) prior to GN?
#490
February 27th, 2012 11:14
Bovril,
One more that I can think of: Merigo won the Eider in 2009 and the Scottish National in 2010
#491
February 27th, 2012 11:22
Time to get back to basics for a week or two. Going to look once again at a few key stats and see if they add or deduct anyone from my short list which is too long.
Synchronised is a real dilemer. It you want a good price you need to take it now BUT he may not even run in the GN! A hard run in the GN and again he will find the 4.5 miles with 11.10 very very difficult against the likes of WER/Junior/ATP/Shaka/Giles C [if he runs/if he gets sft on a fetaher weight] etc. But he does worry me (but that 14lb above bottom weight is such a strong stat you cant ignore it). I think i will have to take the risk and wait until after the Gold Cup to see what results, just dont want to waste money having lost one anti post on Oscar time (but only one this year).
#492
February 27th, 2012 11:24
it will be 56 days since chicago grey has run which i think breaks the statistic for days since last run.
#493
February 27th, 2012 11:30
Admin – I have had no problem posting this weekend! which is very strange. You scared the blog straight
I am happy to stay here I like the continuous thread of thought, but also like the idea of some dedicated Q&A pages…if their are any answers. Couldn’t join with my current id as others have said,… please advise on forum link whether we need new ones.
#494
February 27th, 2012 11:33
COD won those two 4m+ races off 139
Merigo off 125 and 127. (Beware Merigo is back down to 129… Maybe another tilt at Scottish National?)
Synchronised off 143 and now it would be 161. Would make it the best achievement by a GN horse in the past 25 years or more. Is he really better than Hedgehunter and Don’t Push It? Take out Tricky Trickster (out of form), Le Beau Bai (ground against) and Companero (ground against, ultra hard race in Eider) and Synhc was racing trees in Midlands last year.
By contrast DPI almost gave a horse that subsequently placed at Cheltenham a similar amount of weight in the Cheltenham handicap over 28f. And he won GN off 153 not 161!
#495
February 27th, 2012 11:36
Agree with kj & Systemsman – maybe a combo of blog and forum would work
For instance that thread on the forum is 104 pages long!?!
#496
February 27th, 2012 11:41
“The Stayer
February 26th, 2012 22:43
I would be interested to know what people make of STEWARTS HOUSE?”
Stewarts House:
Positive
OR142 OK but a bit low for last few years
GN weight 10.05 OK
OR/RPR + 4 Ok but right at the lowest level.
Won C2 30K at Aintree – very very good
Won C1 Han chase – very very good
2nd over 25f this season – very very good
Won in chase with 18 runners (+ 3rd in another): very very good
TS 136: good
Negative:
Aug 2011 OR125 now OR142 + 17: not good.
Ran over 24f or more only 4 times: not good
Longest chase win 22f: very very bad (RP comments over 24/25f not so good)
Conclsuion.
That win at Aintee makes this runner look interesting but he looks much more like a 22f-24f runner. No evidence he can manage 28f or more, in fact the evidence is that he struggles at 24f (see RP commnets in racing).
probably does not have the class at the bigger distances to win the GN. Up in OR +17 since August which means a win in the Gn is unlikely. Had he a place or win at 26f or more he would be much more attractive with that win at Aintree.
#497
February 27th, 2012 11:43
Just lost a psot on Stewarts House (no doubt due to the cut and paste” – cant be bothered to do again (shuld have saved it). In short he does not look a winner over the lonegr distance of 4.4 mile on all current evidence.
#498
February 27th, 2012 11:54
I have been keen on Synchronised since his 3rd with 11-10 in the midlands, you know, almost everything else in that race has never run again or run well or refused to continue.
Unfortunately hesitation meant I missed out on over 100-1 in september, typical, he was my best AP bet nomination! but got the 75-1 ticket to win before his hen. However, since then the mythical weight has materialised and I don’t think he can win.
3rd like DPI with top weight even looks unlikely, because DPI was big and cleared his fences well, although less well with top weight!. Agree that little legs Sync. jumps low and it just seems possible he won’t get to finish. I say this as his original no.1 fan this year 2011 ono
His odds were pushed out to 25s this weekend and I was considering it a more reasonable e/w,… but for the weight, the jumping style and cheltenham.
#499
February 27th, 2012 11:58
“it will be 56 days since chicago grey has run which i think breaks the statistic for days since last run.”
I was always a little uncertian about CG being a Novice Last Season (NLS). He’s on my short list (3stars-[minus]) but now gets a big double – (minus)for NLS and 56 days since last run so does not look like the winner (but that still leaves Shaka as a NLS on the short list).
however good the NLS look they certainly have it all to do in the GN and almost all fail up against the big boys.
#500
February 27th, 2012 11:59
Gosh the Stewarts House post has now appeared!
#501
February 27th, 2012 12:05
scotsirish systems?
#502
February 27th, 2012 12:09
Systemsman,
I have been trying to post on here with regards Stewarts House for a week and I lost the post over and over again, which is why I stuck it up on the new forum (and why we should all abandon this ship and move over to the new forum).
Agree with the point about no 3m win but the manner of his Sefton win suggested to me that this horse does have plenty of stamina (up with the pace off a big weight in heavy ground). His dosage profile is very good and there is stamina on both sides of his pedigree (Ballyfitz and Simon share the same sire, and Sir Peter Lely who was 4th to Rough Quest has the same damsire).
#503
February 27th, 2012 12:09
I have been trying to post on here with regards Stewarts House for a week and I lost the post over and over again, which is why I stuck it up on the new forum (and why we should all abandon this ship and move over to the new forum).
Agree with the point about no 3m win but the manner of his Sefton win suggested to me that this horse does have plenty of stamina (up with the pace off a big weight in heavy ground). His dosage profile is very good and there is stamina on both sides of his pedigree (Ballyfitz and Simon share the same sire, and Sir Peter Lely who was 4th to Rough Quest has the same damsire).
#504
February 27th, 2012 12:11
Evans on SOP……
State Of Play is not guaranteed a place in the line-up but has finished in the first four in the last three Nationals.
His last two appearances have been his only runs of each season and Williams admitted it was hard getting the horse ready for the big day.
“He worked on Saturday. He has a few aches and pains and it’s always very difficult,” the Llanfarcan trainer went on.
“February is always a bad month for me with State Of Play because it’s difficult to get the work into him. Fingers crossed we are on track, but it’s going to be a tricky one.
“It’s going to be difficult to get him there as he’s a little bit older and it’s going to take a lot more work again this year.
“I’m on course with him, but it’s a tough course.”
#505
February 27th, 2012 12:14
Systems,
Tried to reply to your post but I cannot seem to post anything about this horse at all on here!! The original post on the new forum I tried to post many times last week. I replied to you on the new forum.
Please people can we leave this blog and migrate ASAP!!!
#506
February 27th, 2012 12:20
Hope to talk about According To Pete later today who has a clear 3stars in my GN system. A very underrated runner who hardly gets mentioned yet fits all the GN stats and really should be in any short list (a very good hurdler before chasing a C2 winner).
Anyone like him like me? The profile looks good for a winner – can anyone spot any week points?
#507
February 27th, 2012 12:22
State Of Play i would be very happy to take a a bet that he does not make top 4 this year.Time he retired!! (hope Niche Market does not get into this situation next year!).
#508
February 27th, 2012 12:23
Back from my sick bed – does anyone else know of a winter bug going around? It’s knocked me for six.
Mike N
re #375 not sure you need to sound so celebratory about Portrait King seemingly proving me wrong. Perhaps you should instead be thanking me for bringing this to your attention in the first place, not having done so yourself. Plus he hasn’t proved me wrong in terms of the National yet. I look forward to the day even more now!
#509
February 27th, 2012 12:28
oh, poor old SOP
If I didn’t respect Evan I would have called this cruelty two yrs ago! I know he must find it hard too and think he will make the best decision if he needs to.
Now he’s got little front legs too! shame they have always given him trouble, but what a solid jumper he is,… every time. Bless him.
#510
February 27th, 2012 12:30
You know systemsman, I was going to ask for your opinion on According to Pete,… but Scotsirish seemed more appropriate after your post lol!
#511
February 27th, 2012 12:34
According To Pete
11yo making debut in race & never ran in chase at Cheltenham Festival (think pretty much all the UK-trained horses have except Lord Gyllene, or they have previous experience of GN fences) – stinks of an afterthought to me
Probably bolt up now I’ve said that…
#512
February 27th, 2012 12:38
Seven Towers do you live in londinium
everyones always got something last couple of yrs. Background illness as I call it has been replaced by full on illness twice a winter 
Could be diluted swine flu from last yr or have you had any chicken liver pate recently???…report on countryfile last night said, apparently two thirds of chickens on shelves have ‘it’ and they carry this new thing unaffected while alive, but it can kill people! advice is no undercooked chicken and never wash your chicken! spreads in the kitchen like wildfire.
#513
February 27th, 2012 13:01
Just refound this post by Miinnehoma which is well worth looking at again and loking at these runners in detail (now also posted on the Forum under “key stats”:
“miinnehoma
January 4th, 2012 03:36
Right, just for the Craic -
Will use those under 100/1 with Betfair at the moment and apply 4 (20/20) 1 yr before stats (leaving out Lord G.) and 3 (20/20) 31st Dec stats.
1 yr. before stats –
20/20 ran in 7 chases or more.
20/20 won 17k or more chase – prize money seasonally adjusted.
20/20 chase win place strike rate (1st,2nd,3rd) 47%+
20/20 career win place strike rate (1st,2nd,3rd) 47%+
And these 31st Dec. stats –
20/20 ran in 3 handicap chases or more
20/20 won a race at 24f or more
20/20 won 1 of last 10 chases
Leaves a list of 14 –
Current OR / Age / Odds.
168 Synchronised 9 34/1
160 Ballabriggs 11 21/1
160 Don’t Push It 12 55/1
158 Midnight Chase 10 42/1
153 Junior 9 18/1
150 Oscar Time 11 22/1 (2 chase wins)
150 Big Fella Thanks 10 90/1 (2 chase wins)
150 Chicago Grey 9 44/1
149 West End Rocker 10 21/1
148 The Midnight Club 11 27/1 (2 chase wins)
147 Always Right 10 34/1
144? Mon Mome 12 90/1
144 ShakaBB 8 27/1
143 Prince De Beauchene 9 46/1 ”
I’am sure we can get that list down quite a bit – you can take out DPT, OT, BFT for starters.
#514
February 27th, 2012 13:05
Evan Williams said that Deep Purple bled during the race the other day and has bled before:
“He’s a bit battered and bruised and he did bleed as well during the race which he has done in the past,” said Williams.
Wouldn’t back this one with anyone’s money.
#515
February 27th, 2012 13:17
Afraid so.
I think out of the great unknown group, big group! I am still liking Calgary Bay most… who fortunately didn’t run in a mediocre race or style at the weekend
The weight is a concern, but looks one that can cope with 11-6 and its not 11-10. 9yr old improving big horse, but fell at 4th last yr..anyone got any comment on why? what happened?… must go watch how he took the first 3 and why he fell anyway sometime soon.
#516
February 27th, 2012 13:40
before ballabriggs won – from a post i did last yr.
Many GN winners as I expected had run at Aintree (12/19) over hurdles/chases/GN fences/GN but I noticed that 16/19 had run at Cheltenham (15 at the festival). The 3 that didn’t were No.6 valverde, Bobbyjo and the real odd one out Lord Gyllene – No.6 and BJ both won the Irish Nat. and did not run in the UK before their GN win.
Now back to the 16 that ran at the Cheltenham track, 10 had won a race (hurdle/chase) and the other 6 had finished 2nd, 3rd etc. but the strange thing about these 6 were – 3 had finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in the Welsh Nat. and the other 3 were 1st, 2nd over GN fences and Fell in GN. From another angle, 5 of these 6 were 1st, 2nd over GN fences (3) and Fell in GN (2).
#517
February 27th, 2012 13:48
re: Post 511
If we ignore those on 11.06 or more (for the moment at least) we have (prices as off Jan 4th):
153 Junior 9 18/1
150 Chicago Grey 9 44/1
Negative: NLS/No run last 50days before GN
149 West End Rocker 10 21/1
148 The Midnight Club 11 27/1
Negative 2 chase wins
147 Always Right 10 34/1
Negative: Two PU GN season – a big no in trends.
144? Mon Mome 12 90/1
Negative: a previous winner. Age 12. PU twice GN season – a big no.
144 ShakaBB 8 27/1
Negative. NLS (but otherwise OK)
143 Prince De Beauchene 9 46/1 ”
So the short short list would be (in some sort of order wit correct current OR’s for GN):
1. 153 Junior 9
1. 149 West End Rocker 10
3. 149 ShakaBB 8
3. 143 Prince De Beauchene 9
3. 149 According To Pete 11 (added by me)
6. 145 The Midnight Club 11
With CG in reserve but Ball and Syn would be just as good even at thier weights. MM and AR are eliminated due to two fail to finish in GN season.
Its the best i can do at the moment and other than TMC (only two wins and i’am not convinced) and MM all are in my Basic GN system (AR was eliminated in my system short list due to those two PU) with 3 stars or 3stars- (CG has 3stars–). According to Pete added to the list.
Now that feels a lot lot more positive to me other than an niggling doubt about Ball and Syn but the 14lbs above bottom weight cannt be ignored but we may need to come back to these two after Cheltenham.
#518
February 27th, 2012 13:55
I think its important to build in a degree of flexibility with the trends. With this in mind, should we be letting Chicago Grey off with 56 days since his last run given that the race is a week later this year?
I’d be reluctant to write a horse off for the sake of 6 days.
#519
February 27th, 2012 14:12
Smoking Aces beat Portrait King giving him a lot of weight, and is bred to win a National. I’m not giving up on him.
#520
February 27th, 2012 14:12
….albeit probably for next year…..
#521
February 27th, 2012 14:13
I think this year the 49 could be extended to 56.
#522
February 27th, 2012 14:17
aldaniti i think had 52 days.
#523
February 27th, 2012 14:38
kj
Thanks for the advice. I shall inform the cooks downstairs accordingly! No doubt this was one of John Craven’s “hard-hitting” reports all the while donning a cable knit jumper.
I note Dessie Hughes did have a winner at the weekend, his first this month but he’s now 11 winners from 224 runners since September and of these his chasers have posted 2 wins from 78 attempts.
I must admit any hope I had for Rare Bob is fast disappearing.
#524
February 27th, 2012 14:57
Yes, I watched the race the other day and was pleased at the way Rare Bob was jumping and travelling through the race. Didn’t find much at the end of the race though the comments are that he was “one paced” rather than “weakened”. I’m not sure really. Dessie Hughes says he was happy with the run and the cheekpieces were left off (presumably will re-apply them for Aintree). The stable form is a bit of a concern though.
#525
February 27th, 2012 14:57
miinnehoma why was According to Pete not included in your excellent Jan 20/20 list (i make him a fit)?
#526
February 27th, 2012 15:08
Afternoon all , just spent last half hour reading all the blogs from Sat onwards , some fascinating points on here and great debates as always , Minnehomma glad you are on the mend , seems a lot of us are sufferring from some sort of illness or another .
Anyway after a fascinating weekends racing , and some good runs from PDB & Seabass ( they can only beat whoever is against them ) , I still havent saw anything that worries me beating Ballabriggs at all . I agree with Butlers Cabin 2008 -post 460 , and as I always have been a big supporter of Ballabriggs will be topping up again on him today after I green out on both Seabass and PDB .
Thanks to Bovrill for heads up on Seabass profitable so far .
But for me still Ballabriggs is the one to beat , imho . Keep up the good work and keep the faith , God Bless all , JJF
#527
February 27th, 2012 15:15
systems, pete – no 17k+ chase win 1 yr before.
#528
February 27th, 2012 15:20
systems, re acp looks like soft needs to appear in going somewhere, is g/s at watered aintree good enough and would not bother me as we touched on this the other day the size of the winning field if i recall is 16 at best.
#529
February 27th, 2012 15:23
Seven Towers glad youre feeling better after your winter bug.
#530
February 27th, 2012 15:25
Mandie his trainer said he wont mind with good/good to soft for ATP
#531
February 27th, 2012 15:26
http://www.grandnational.org.uk/trends.php
I have gone through the field and the results have produced the following shortlist…
Planet Of Sound
Chicago Grey
According To Pete
West End Rocker
Always Right
Rare Bob
The Midnight Club
Treacle
Niche Market
Killyglen
Always Waining
Backstage
Giles Cross
Vic Venturi
57 (50+7 because National is a week later this year)days since last run rule will be applied nearer the time.
Obviously you dont have to go with the french bred or 8 yr old rule if you dont want to, but all the other stats are the killer ones.
#532
February 27th, 2012 15:27
thanks jjf.
#533
February 27th, 2012 15:27
thanks mike n. did not know that, intereresting.
#534
February 27th, 2012 15:30
I’d rather carry on posting on here too, when i tried to register on the new one it says it didnt recognise my name and mail. I dont want to be changing those details if i can help it.
#535
February 27th, 2012 15:34
quote from ATP trainer…
“He’s won on all types of ground and he goes on anything and everything. The Peter Marsh Chase was a bit of a slog through heavy ground but he has won on good going as well.
“I would think that the ground will be on the softer side of good this year for the John Smith’s Grand National.”
#536
February 27th, 2012 15:38
My own opinion is im not sure he’ll be good enough to win. His trainer said before the weights that he wouldnt run if he had 11st or more. His weight is 10 12 which isnt far off so he would have to improve again and aged 11 im not sure he will.
#537
February 27th, 2012 15:47
Mike N
“Seven Towers
re #375 not sure you need to sound so celebratory about Portrait King seemingly proving me wrong. Perhaps you should instead be thanking me for bringing this to your attention in the first place, not having done so yourself. Plus he hasn’t proved me wrong in terms of the National yet. I look forward to the day even more now!”
I was merely pointing out what you had said. And pointing out that I have a bit on Killyglen. Nothing more than that.
Like a lot of horses in the field the 4m isnt a problem its the extra half mile. You can have an opinion, however you wont know for sure until they have run it. Killyglen was bang there after about 3m6f last year, so we will see if he can kick on if in the same form, assuming he stands up this time.
#538
February 27th, 2012 16:43
ACCORDING TO PETE.
#66
miinnehoma
January 27th, 2012 23:15
Crisp,
I was wondering when you would get around to Pete. After his last win I was thinking here we have an improving 11 yr old who has won his last 2 races – that rings a bell I thought, not Rambo 2 is it.
After looking into his profile I reckon this lad is different, this lad has a chance. Mighty stats including SR’s, dosage as good as Hedgehunter, class and better ground might be doubtful, no key race form except do you remember a post you did a few years ago about the PP Chelt chase re GN winners. I think you found that 5 or 6 GN winners ran in the race and finished 1st, 3rd, 5th or so – Pete 9/1 was 5th in ’09 to Tranquil Sea.
The Peter Marsh C1 Hcap chase he won last week was worth 28k but when he was 3rd in the same race in ’10 it was worth 39k. The trainer is very keen to run in the GN as long as the wt is not over 11st, he said he might not bring him back for the GN trial slog on Feb 18th because he would prefer to keep him fresh and would consider instead a hurdle race sometime before GN.
Like many GN winners he has mixed chasing and hurdling over the last few seasons except he has run in slightly more hurdles than others (22), his last 4 races were all chases – I think Amberleigh House at 12 yrs old had run in 18 hurdles, No6 valverde 15 hurdles.
#539
February 27th, 2012 17:29
What are the team’s opinions on Calgary Bay? I haven’t seen much discussion about him, unless I have missed it.
I realise atm you are discussing ACP, but would appreciate your thoughts at some stage.
#540
February 27th, 2012 17:38
Miinnehoma, hope you are very well.
Weight- I think there are three solid handicappers at the top of the weights there,(Ballabriggs/Synchronised/Midnight Chase) and if a big weight is going to win I reckon it’ll be something with good handicapping form and a modicum of h’cap chase experience. I wouldn’t necessary rule out anything with just one bad stat/trend.
Quite sure that from 1960 onwards only Specify, Aldaniti and Hedgehunter have actually been of the track for more than 42 days.
It came up recently about non finishes in season. Rag Trade 1976, 5 preps, 2 non finishes. 2/41 had two non finishes since 1st September.
Some more stats for Systemsman and anyone else interested, think there are a couple more I’ve been looking at will post again. Going back to Red Alligator’s three strikes business, looks a good thing on these stats.
age 8-12 (Bogskar 1940)
weight 11-5 or less (Sundew 1957/Rummy 74,77)
0-14lbs more than bottom weight (Corbiere 1983)
top59 in weights,weights day (Rubstic 79?)
top half of weights,weights day (Rubstic 79?)
10 or more chases (Minnehoma 1994)
14+ chase/hurdle starts (?) 41/41
top3 chase/hurdle since 1st September(?)-51/51
*top3 chase 48/51, Bobbyjo,Papillon, Numbersixvalverde all top4 chase*
3-6 prep runs (Seagram 7,’91/Miinnehoma 2,’94)
14-42 days since last time out – 28/29
(a couple of winners in the 60′s less than 14 days, Hedgehunter 49, ’05)
won in last two seasons or in last 6 chases
(Ben Nevis ’80)
RPR>GNOR 5 or more (Ballabriggs 4, 2011)
4+ handicap chases (Grittar 2,1982)
won a h’cap chase (Grittar/Bindaree 2002)
40% of chases ran were h’cap chases – 21/21
top3 C1 chase(Hallo Dandy ’84/Ballabriggs)28-30
45% chase win place strike rate (Papillon 42%)
20/21, could be a 29/30 (not 100% though)
5 chase wins or a 27%+ chase win strike rate
(Bindaree) 20/21
#541
February 27th, 2012 17:59
“2/41 had two non finishes since 1st September.”
Happy with that stat – red line all who have two non finishes in GN season!(its in my GN system). happy to be wrong twice in evry 41 years!!
#542
February 27th, 2012 18:02
Once again gerat stats crisp73 i will put them in my little “GN black book” and better still on the Forum for all to see this year and next year.
#543
February 27th, 2012 18:08
Jackie
February 27th, 2012 17:29
What are the team’s opinions on Calgary Bay? I haven’t seen much discussion about him, unless I have missed it.
I realise atm you are discussing ACP, but would appreciate your thoughts at some stage
———–
I thik quite a few on this forum fancy Calgary. However, he isn’t for me. In his 7 races over 24f plus he has only done good late work in 2 of them, which is under my target of 33%. Now, he is only just under so he’s not the worst by any means. However, the combination of doubtful stayer + high weight of 11’6′ means that I have ruled him out personally
#544
February 27th, 2012 18:43
according to pete runs with ballabriggs at kelso on saturday
#545
February 27th, 2012 18:50
Mike N ur shortlist looks good to me. scratch off giles cross,viv venturi,always waining and backstage for me due to ground and maybe not get a run etc. others have solid claims and tick the boxes
#546
February 27th, 2012 19:42
mighty crisp.
nice wee race for pete.
west end rocker entered for 2 races -
3Mar12 2:55 (Five Day) at Doncaster, William Hill Grimthorpe Chase (Handicap Chase)
3Mar12 3:10 (Five Day) at Newbury, Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) Grade 3
#547
February 27th, 2012 19:53
Killyglen was meant to be going for the Grimthorpe according to his trainer but he’s not been entered. Hope he’s ok!!
#548
February 27th, 2012 19:59
Thanks Speedy.
#549
February 27th, 2012 20:24
so next scracthing stage tomorrow folks…. we know Northern Alliance is out, any other looking likely to go do we think?
I would like to know who Bovrill’s bookie is as he he seems to get quite bizarre prices out of step with the prices available at the time… Chapoturgeon for example was already 9/1 second fav when you mentioned him in January…never 20/1….. this must be the same bookie who gave him a huge price on Junior for this year’s National AFTER he won at Cheltenham last year…
I don’t think people are snearing Bovril, but a few things don’t seem to add up and do look a little like someone trying to look clever after the event.
Seabass was only tipped up after he was already well into his winning streak and the story given by you about him included some blantant untruths such as Ted Walsh ‘finding’ the horse for his owners when he won as a 4 year old…. at that point, the Gunners Syndicate already owned him!
Ted Walsh was clear yesterday in saying they may as well try and get Seabass to Aintree as he is hard to keep sound and they may never get another chance.
His price now looks utter madness and Katie on board would have me running for the hills!
Not trying to have a pop at someone, but the only person with any line to genuine info on a horse entered here is Graham as an owner.
I just worry people can be sucked into believing something which is then casually dismissed with ‘its not a tip but….’
#550
February 27th, 2012 20:28
having just mentioned that… I see Qhilimar has just been scratched too!…
80 and counting!
#551
February 27th, 2012 20:35
Jackie here for what’s its worth is my opinion of Calgary Bay.
He’s ran 3 times at Liverpool, with not the best results.
First time was in 2009 in the John Smith Manifesto novice chase where he finished 4th out of 5 finishers to Tartak and where 8 started and despite Tony McCoy on board ran like this:
Held up in touch, reminders after 10th, ridden and weakened approaching 3 out, tailed off.
The analyse of the run was:
It was another disappointing run from Calgary Bay, who was returning to a suitably longer distance. He came under pressure after a mistake at the tenth and his fate was sealed before three out. This effort leaves him with it all to prove.
Then almost a year later in the totesport bowl chase.
He finished 4th of 5 to What A Friend:
Held up in last, hit 11th, effort 15th, ridden and lost place after next.
The analyse was:
Calgary Bay, the Gold Cup sixth, moved nicely out the back but his response when asked to improve was a laboured one and perhaps this came a little too soon.
I admit that both these runs where on the Mildmay course, but a year later in the Grand National itself he fell when with the leaders at the 4th. (Very bad fence that, and one that’s been altered, since.)
I think Calgary Bay might not have too happy memories of Aintree.
#552
February 27th, 2012 20:41
Know what guys I am feeling like I’ve got that ‘Friedbrainitis’ bug. I am reading all the posts today and have reached a point were I don’t know what to say. Don’t want to slag off anybody’s choices, but in my own mind I know which horses I will not be backing, rather than certain which I will. So only my opinion but this is the way I am feeling.
Backstage/Killyglen/Treacle/The Midnight Club/Scotsirish/Alfa Beat/Calgary Bay/Neptune Collonges/Quantititaveasing/On His Own all attempted 3m 4f and did not finish in first 3. This puts me off backing any of these.
#553
February 27th, 2012 21:07
Also Fair Along and Always Waining attempted 3m 4f not in first 3.
At present gone off Deep Purple after fall the other day.
Gone off Always Right after 2 pulled up.
Rare Bob out of form not been in first 3 in last 3 starts.
Stewarts House couldn’t do not won over 3m.
Obviously if any of these horses have another run and remove the negative I would reconsider.
#554
February 27th, 2012 21:07
HI GANG,what we need to remember is we’ve had a bad winter with frost and plenty of rain, most of the fancied horses i.e.JUNIOR,BALLABRIGS,ALPHA BEAT all need good ground,if we’d had a mild winter those three would of had the necessary runs to fit the STATS,don’t be suprised to see BALLABRIGGS get turned over on saturday……….JUNIOR’S next run to be in GOLD CUP………..ANY VIEWS BLOGGERS
#555
February 27th, 2012 21:08
Had an unbelievable day on Sunday at Ditcheat, I was really surprised at how much access we were given to the horses, superstars and all (but no touching coz of the recent health problems).
I did manage to so the Niche in his box and he looked very well and relaxed. He was smaller in height than i imagined but wider than I realised , fantastic day out and the really well looked after.
I think 7T asked about Rocky Creek. PFN seems to hold him in high regard in fact his box is next to Master Mindeds old box which is in the courtyard with all the stars. He didn’t sound too bullish about his chances of winning at the festival but seemed to be looking forward more to next season.
#556
February 27th, 2012 21:18
I wonder what Ruby will make of The Niche when he rides him on Saturday at Newbury !!
#557
February 27th, 2012 21:21
Cheers Neil
#558
February 27th, 2012 21:22
looks like JUNIOR is being prepared to the minute,TIM PALIN reports that there looking at the GRIMETHORPE but don’t want to give him a hard race under a big weight on soft ground, the prefered option is CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP……..COMMENT…
#559
February 27th, 2012 21:25
RA- I’m not suprised!
if you keep with the programme, permanent fuzziness disorder could set in! Although I think from your recent conclusions your still doing fine.
you must have posted several hundred times in the last few weeks
I unfortunately have the full perenial fuzziness and I think it has led to a further complication ‘veryfewcanseeme’ virus which basically means I frequently rely on others to say what I said earlier in order to get answers. I’d like to thank my translator Jackie today
Galileo- I was thinking of the performances over the weekend of those that turned up! and how the weather may have contributed not just to preps, but also fear of running horses in the ground.
Billy- great to hear you had a good time!
#560
February 27th, 2012 21:35
Graham, a good run on Saturday will put you right in the picture again.
#561
February 27th, 2012 21:35
Interesting Graham. Pity there is no betting up on the race yet.
Hope he wins;should be interesting
#562
February 27th, 2012 21:37
OH! saturday at newbury Graham
How come everyone is so convinced this yr that Ruby will ride PDB already? What if Niche romps home and wins!
Is it because PDB is the most promising of the right age group with the right weight at said stable? God have I answered my own question again..
#563
February 27th, 2012 21:42
RA, Looking through the stats nothing can win the GN this year!
Fair Along did Unseat while still in contaention over 30F & had Chicago Grey & WER behind when failing in the 3 1/2 mile at Chelt!
#564
February 27th, 2012 21:52
Kj.
I see nothing in PDP’ form to support that statement
#565
February 27th, 2012 21:52
KJ How come everyone is so convinced this yr that Ruby will ride PDB already? What if Niche romps home and wins!
Is it because PDB is the most promising of the right age group with the right weight at said stable? God have I answered my own question again..
My source was what I read in my current weekender.
#566
February 27th, 2012 21:53
Mike Campo
February 27th, 2012 21:42
RA, Looking through the stats nothing can win the GN this year!
Does this mean another Esha Ness then
#567
February 27th, 2012 21:53
neptune collonges was 2nd @ 28f.
I think jenny pitman said some time ago that Calgary bay would be a cracker for the GN.
I don’t fancy him, too much wt and not really a 24f+ horse.
Seabass 14/1 with w.hill, i don’t know what to say.
#568
February 27th, 2012 21:57
I’d be happy if Niche had Harry in the GN anyway! Niche did not have a particularly good run when Ruby took the reins, getting over his wind op?.. anyway would like to see how they get on this time. When does betting open?!
Don’t think I would be so happy if I was on Seabass and Katie rides. No offence, I just don’t think its a ladies course, history proves it.
If Ruby rides PDB I will not be happy with the price, so whether I go through with my I’ll bet on anyting Ruby rides, statment … I’ll let people vote on it I think
#569
February 27th, 2012 22:14
Minnie ta re.Neptune Collonges back to my shortlonglist of 26.
#570
February 27th, 2012 22:25
The Niche looks a great bet next Saturday. I might top up my National bet in anticipation of a good run. If the last few days are anything to go by, he will be cut to evens favourite if he wins on Saturday! haha
#571
February 27th, 2012 22:40
I’m on Seabass at around 50s e/w
Happy with that – think he’s around a 28/1 shot – there’s some serious dross in this field imo – Katie Walsh wouldn’t worry me as much as some of the male jocks either (2 winners at Chelt Festival)
To be honest I cannot see another horse that is potentially as exciting – in my view there’s plenty of stamina on his dam’s side and, for the most part, he jumps and travels very nicely, is in very good form and trained by a GN-winning trainer
Could make a case for a few others, could make a stronger case against most of the runners
Anyway this race has lost its appeal as a strong betting medium for me – going to spend my time working on my Cheltenham portfolio – had a great week last year
#572
February 27th, 2012 22:44
Its only a veterans chase hes running it. Winning that isnt going to tell us anything new.
And that isnt guaranteed as he may end up with top weight.
#573
February 27th, 2012 23:00
Ewok- PDB price crash was the morning before the race!!! because he was obviously going to win that.
Competition atleast in this race! but veterans label is for some on a par with Cross country and he will be carrying and saving something maybe.. so who knows, to get the few 33s about I’d top up before.
Still no sign of the many offering 5 places then!
Pablo- have to agree to disagree about woman riding this course, although the sample is not great in number. Forest Gunner with Nina Carberry had the best chance and remember the hype there. 9th.
I do agree that some men aren’t favoured jocks instead but its not the case here.
I have nothing against the horse, the I told you whispers, I just think the big one is a stretch. One horse may bridge the gap, it might be him, but for me currently one under 16-1 is ruled out.
#574
February 27th, 2012 23:08
sorry correction, thought it was better than that,
yr before 2005 Carrie Ford! Forest Gunner 5th.
I’ll take 50s e/w 5 places Pablo
#575
February 27th, 2012 23:18
Hello All
Analysis and summary of Stage 2 of our vote is now posted up on the ‘Grand National Voting Page’ thread.
Stage 3 of the GRAND NATIONAL TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE vote opens TOMORROW following the first scratchings announcement from Aintree and will close at midnight Sunday night the 4th of March
Thank You
#576
February 27th, 2012 23:19
Hi Graham
Can you update us on Niche’s health and the coughing virus at Ditch Heat – has it abated?
Thanks in advance
#577
February 27th, 2012 23:25
Evening all , see the debates still raging , and Galileo , I have no issues if Ballabriggs gets beat on Sat whatsoever , If I am right prior to the National 2011 ran at Kelso and Skippers Brig beat him , and well we all know what happened on the big day . Keep the debates going great stuff all , God Bless
#578
February 28th, 2012 01:15
Have been studying my own stats a little more closely and amazed I hadn’t already red penned Roberto Goldback, if you look at my table he has only 13 positives and 12 negatives, sorry but any way yoy cut it that’s to many and some of them quite important ones.
Mon Mome is my next to be red penned sorry folks but a French 12 yr old (over the hill in French years,33 chases a long career,fallen 4 times,not won for 2 years,not great on dosage,2 PU’S & F in last 5 runs no way Hose.
23 Left!!
#579
February 28th, 2012 09:45
The Niche has been fine, the cough seemed to have been among some of the younger horses.But that appears to be all in hand now.
The Niche is very well and we have found a quieter race for him rather then heading for The Grimthorpe. It may be a veterans chase but it’s all about the 14th of April and the prepartion to get him there.
#580
February 28th, 2012 11:12
Agreed on those two red pens Red Alligator. Mon Mome no way – also off my short list for which he qualifies (but he would look good a aa previous GN winner anyway).
#581
February 28th, 2012 11:37
Looking at -
157 Neptune Collonges – P422
150 Chicago Grey – U3732
149 West End Rocker – P1
149 According To Pete – 3711
148 Massini’s Maguire – P1
143 Prince De Beauchene – 51
Maybe -
141 Fair Along – 2634
141 Killyglen – 3034
Only if Wet Wet Wet.
140 Le Beau Bai – 0P7113
138 Giles Cross – 121
#582
February 28th, 2012 12:21
Miinnehoma Post 579
All six of your Looking at I still have in my LongShortlist, have discarded Maybe’s and agree with your Wet Wet Wet.
I tried to start a SOFT debate to no avail. What I was trying to get to was what Miinnehoma has said I will only do Giles Cross & Le Beau Bai if SOFT and wonder do we all feel the same or would anybody consider doing them on GOOD OR GOOD TO SOFT?
#583
February 28th, 2012 12:32
My main reason for red penning both Fair Along and Killyglen revolve around the Attempted 3m 4f and not in first 3.
Also when weights published Fair ALong’s trainer Philip Hobbs said it depends on his next run whether he will go for GN, so I would caution an Ante Post bet.
We are looking for the winner here not a placed horse and as such cannot have Killyglen when he last won 3 years ago April. Ok if he won his next run fair enough, but otherwise NO!
These are just my thoughts, please no offence intended.
#584
February 28th, 2012 12:50
Hi Red. My main reason for defending Fair Along is for balance. I have a few reservations re its chances and have already flagged that its not a definate runner. I have been trying adress the counter form arguements to the Stat perspective. I don’t feel comfortable in risking larger sums without support from both the Stats & Form. I’ve always found this a better basis for sound judgement when ‘investing’ in horse racing. If Fair Along races against The Niche on Saturday,i’ll have a clearer picture.
#585
February 28th, 2012 12:59
Having had a quiet weekend just watching rather getting involved I still feel a lot of those horses near the summit of the betting have more holes in them than a Scandinavian crime thriller plot.
There may still be value to be had amongst more of those old fashioned staying chasers lurking.
Giles Cross has yet to finish outside the places in six attempts over 3m 4f+ (the Midnight Chase race was not over this distance). That’s a remarkable record. I’ve made the decision to definitely have him on board. He may conk out at the four mile mark but he will have been the cause for many more to do the same long before he does I suspect!
There will no doubt be an Irish horse or two to go past him at the death but hopefully I have these covered!
#586
February 28th, 2012 13:50
Giles Cross fans should wait til race week to have a bet. He won’t run unless its soft.
#587
February 28th, 2012 14:03
True Mike. I backed him before vthe welsh national at fancy prices but too short at moment giben the risks ie probably wont run again befoe GN which would make 3 prep runs & 8 weeks gap.
Also Giles Cross is essentially a front running bridle horse & I think MUST have soft conditions or he’ll expend too much energy early on trying to maintain the lead against faster horses. I would like his chances in a bog; maybe we’re due one!
#588
February 28th, 2012 14:08
Giles Cross with a run and ground soft cannot ne ignored to many positives, lowest negatives.
However may not get in (I think he will, but there is doubt) and may be pulled out especially if GOOD ground. It’s a wait and see I’m afraid.
#589
February 28th, 2012 14:11
Mike. Still torn on whether to have a saver on WER. If King treats the Gimthorpe as more of a schooling exercise & it dosen’t show too much, maybe it will drift a little on the exchanges. Of course, if it wins I’m really screwed! Any views?
#590
February 28th, 2012 14:14
I am so frustrated with bookies I have just checked out prices and they have nearly two thirds of the field at 33/1 or less.
Deep Purple fell at weekend and bled during the race, yet price held UNBELIEVABLE cannot imagine if he had gone out to 50/1 that many would want to chance now. What are they playing at.
Just imagine guys Ballabriggs runs at weekend regardless of how he runs they will note he has four legs and therefore price will drop.
Sorry to vent on here but they are driving me BONKERS!!!
#591
February 28th, 2012 14:19
Mike you posted whilst I was, comment stands they will notice WER and Niche have four legs and will lower price accordingly, I seriously think the days were they take a realistic view have long gone.I have already backed WER at 20/1 weeks ago and can’t believe you can still get that price at LADS I think, but think I will have to chance it and top up now, as can’t in a million years see that price holding, the way things have been going recently. Unless something serious happens I think it’s a given our blog will have him as one of top 3 tips.
#592
February 28th, 2012 14:20
Isn’t the whole concept of ante post betting a gamble upon a gamble?
#593
February 28th, 2012 14:30
RA
Value is another of those subjective notions I guess. For some all the value has gone because it so happens that the horses they rate are now at the head of the market. For others it is still obtainable because they don’t consider the horses at the head of market likely winners. It’s those blessed swings and roundabouts again.
However, I do agree in the main. Even the horses that have worthwhile bygone form but nothing recent are lower this year than in any I can remember.
#594
February 28th, 2012 14:33
ST. Absolutely. My point was what price a couple of days before the race if soft; 10-1 ? its about 30-1 on the exchanges when I looked this morning so 2-1 that we get soft ground. Just thought it was a little skinny.
#595
February 28th, 2012 14:36
PS
Anti post prices have been really desperate this year, much worse than previously. Often much better prices on the day & without the risk
#596
February 28th, 2012 14:38
I know my small bets don’t exactly have the bookies running for cover, but my enjoyment in betting on races has been looking for the big value horse that seems to have slipped through the net, and those value prices just aren’t there any more. I bet there won’t be many horses over 25/1 on National Day itself. Given that they make so much money from the once a year punters, I suppose it doesn’t matter to them. Just hoping that there is still value in the big flat handicaps this summer.
#597
February 28th, 2012 14:40
just found this on SOP
“State Of Play is not guaranteed a place in the line-up but has finished in the first four in the last three Nationals.
His last two appearances have been his only runs of each season and Williams admitted it was hard getting the horse ready for the big day.
“He worked on Saturday. He has a few aches and pains and it’s always very difficult,” the Llanfarcan trainer went on.
“February is always a bad month for me with State Of Play because it’s difficult to get the work into him. Fingers crossed we are on track, but it’s going to be a tricky one.
“It’s going to be difficult to get him there as he’s a little bit older and it’s going to take a lot more work again this year.
“I’m on course with him, but it’s a tough course.
#598
February 28th, 2012 14:44
They said last year they were going to retire him because the race knocked him about so much. I know if he has aches and pains the worst thing to do would be to just turn him out in a field, but is he really up to the rigours of training for a race like the National?
#599
February 28th, 2012 14:49
Maureen I would suggest not personally , from aches and pains to national winning performance in what 7 weeks? at age 12 i would say is a massive ask.
#600
February 28th, 2012 14:51
Maureen. Is this Agism?!!!
My wife reckons I should be put out to grass as well. There have been 6 x 12yr old winners in the last 35yrs; not impossible with such little racing on the clock!
#601
February 28th, 2012 14:52
such little racing indeed but is he the equine Ledley King???
#602
February 28th, 2012 14:53
PS. Ageism? Word didn’t exist when I was younger!
#603
February 28th, 2012 14:54
You mean only got one knee but better than John Te-erry!
#604
February 28th, 2012 14:55
Mike exactly what I mean lol !!
#605
February 28th, 2012 14:56
Red Alligator
February 28th, 2012 14:14
I am so frustrated with bookies I have just checked out prices and they have nearly two thirds of the field at 33/1 or less.
Deep Purple fell at weekend and bled during the race, yet price held UNBELIEVABLE cannot imagine if he had gone out to 50/1 that many would want to chance now. What are they playing at.
Just imagine guys Ballabriggs runs at weekend regardless of how he runs they will note he has four legs and therefore price will drop.
Sorry to vent on here but they are driving me BONKERS!!!
———————————–
Another reason to use Betfair, you get better (fairer) prices. Deep Purple drifted from 40/1ish to 85/1ish following the weekend.
#606
February 28th, 2012 14:58
Mike Campo (post 595)
Absolutely right about value. V. poor AP prices out there at the moment. I think on the day last year about 1/4 of the field could be backed at 100/1 or more (some 200/1) and bookies were all offering 5 places. Pays to wait for the day sometimes.
#607
February 28th, 2012 15:01
He’s had little racing because he’s a wreck! [I know how he feels......]
#608
February 28th, 2012 15:07
In addition to my comments about bookies, I was at Sandown on Tingle Creek day in December and they had a handicap hurdle with 19 or 20 runners, I think it was a Pertemps Qualifier. Bookies were offering 4 places but many at 1/5 odds and some even 1/6 odds!! 1/6 odds for a 20 runner handicap. Theiving b******s.
#609
February 28th, 2012 15:08
thats what i mean Maureen If you own a racehorse and it can run more than 4 miles a season surely most people would put it in a couple more races even what look like easy ones?
#610
February 28th, 2012 15:10
Ewok I don’t know how to, what’s involved?
#611
February 28th, 2012 15:19
RA.
Go to http://www.oddschecker.com ,click horseracing,click antipost,click Grand national,click on betfair column at top.
Get free £25 bet when you open the account/use credit/debir card to add subtract funds.etc Any problems ask again
#612
February 28th, 2012 15:23
Thanks Graham. Great news re Niche being in rude health
Really rooting for you both this year
Prep sounds ideal for him – saving plenty in the tank and getting him on course for the Big One.
#613
February 28th, 2012 15:29
I find betfair has good odds to win and thats it. E/w is poorer? does e/w on betfair include 1st by the way? never had the pleasure of finding out.
If your bets unmatched when you ask for better odds and then a horse is withdrawn some ‘b’ will snuffle up everyones cash,.. thats ‘un’ fair! and makes everyone a thief
#614
February 28th, 2012 15:35
welcome back Showlad!
How you feeling about Synchronised right now?
see Slingys post on feb thread
in a nutshell not many think he can win with top weight, even if he has more of a prep run in the GC.
#615
February 28th, 2012 15:38
KJ Yes. 1,2,3&4 in GN. Other point is,Bookies or Betfair, if horse doesn’t make the cut & isn’t physically withdrawn, then money back.This seems lost on some layers who offer bigger prices just because they don’t think they will get a run at the weights.
Apart from better odds,the real value fo me is in the flexibility to lay some or all the bet off again if circumstances change. eg you suddenly find out that the horse isn’t going to run again before GN.
#616
February 28th, 2012 16:04
Maybe SoP’s problem is that he needs genuine good ground. If he was a soft ground horse he wouldn’t knock himself about so much. Wonder what he’d be like in cross country races? Either way, whatever he does it seems to take nine months to patch him up again. Do hope he gets into the race, though, and runs well again.
#617
February 28th, 2012 16:36
or Maureen maybe his problem is that now sadly he is genuinly as a great woman once put it …….. “A wreck” ?? lots of ifs and buts to put your hard earned cash on a horse not seen since last april and the trainer has openly admitted is creaking and cracking a bit on having the dust covers taken off 7 weeks before asking it to race over 4 miles lol?
#618
February 28th, 2012 16:43
Hi KJ
Slingy thanks for your kind words 
Synchronised: In a nutshell, like WER, Junior, Prince De B, Ballabriggs it is down to your own judgement and gut feeling on a horse’s chance in the GN 2012.
The assessment of a horse and the projection into a future race of your assessment is entirely subjective.
Rather than the obsession with top weight, let’s look at Synchronised’s compression, he fares very very well being only 2lbs away from his 159 rating just after he won the Welsh National even though he is on an OR of 167 currently.
Since then his team have obviously tried to make some kind of transition from softer ground to firmer, giving him 5 outings on ground ranging from Good to Soft through to Good ground. He has PU once, placed 7th and then had two top 3 placings and the transition peaked at his excellent Lexus Class 1 win on good ground.
Although this journey has seen his OR rise by 8lbs since the aforementioned Welsh win, he comes into the GN 2012 only 2lbs worse off.
He has won a Midlands National over 34f, a Welsh National over 30f and is truly one of the very few class act marathon staying chasers around.
My gut says he will run and with AP on board he will remain my top pick for this race. Kept in touch enough by AP but leaving enough in the tank and then driving it home at the last
But, as I say, all of our opinions on each of our fancies is neither right or wrong – they are only our opinions – we will find out the answer 6 weeks on Saturday
6 weeks on Saturday!!!! Yipee
:
#619
February 28th, 2012 17:35
where will Killyglen go now as he isnt entered saturday and has no cheltenham entries. races will be few and far between to break the days absent stat.
#620
February 28th, 2012 17:44
Graham said a veterans chase, not sure when or where. If u read this Graham please enlighten ?. Ta
#621
February 28th, 2012 17:51
Hi RA
William Hill Veterans chase on Saturday.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=547818&r_date=2012-03-03#raceTabs=sc_
#622
February 28th, 2012 18:28
Baggy on this site ask and it shall be given.
Thanks Showlad!
Anyone know how/when entries for today’s stage are announced ?
#623
February 28th, 2012 18:47
Any of you guys on a Cheltenham Blog u can recomend ?
#624
February 28th, 2012 19:27
RA, pop over to the daily page here, (tips for Feb, which I’m assuming will go into March,)we all have good banter going when there’s Saturday or major racing during the week; our selections etc.
#625
February 28th, 2012 20:19
Mike C it may be that with a dry week expected across the country, unless they water the ground, it may be too firm for WER to run this weekend. Not sure where they will go after that for a prep.
#626
February 28th, 2012 20:21
Red,
The Niche will run this Saturday at Newbury in the 2.40, a 3 mile 2 veterans Chase. Ruby Walsh will take the ride.
#627
February 28th, 2012 21:01
Thanks Mike
#628
February 28th, 2012 21:36
http://www.grandnational.org.uk/trends.php
I have gone through the field and the results have produced the following shortlist…
Planet Of Sound
Chicago Grey
According To Pete
West End Rocker
Always Right
Rare Bob
The Midnight Club
Treacle
Niche Market
Killyglen
Always Waining
Backstage
Giles Cross
Vic Venturi.
57 (50+7 because National is a week later this year)days since last run rule will be applied nearer the time.
Obviously you dont have to go with the french bred or 8 yr old rule if you dont want to, but all the other stats are the killer ones.
#629
February 28th, 2012 21:56
Thanks Graham, I don’t know the etiquette in this situation. If you can tell us, do you think he has a good chance or will he need the run? If you don’t wish to answer, no problem I will understand.
#630
February 28th, 2012 22:16
Red; The Sun racecaller site is good for upcoming races.
#631
February 28th, 2012 22:18
Red Alligator (re post #623)
This is another racing forum I post on:
http://sportsbetting.myfreeforum.org/forum1.php
It’s a general sports forum but the racing section has most posters and there is a subsection dedicated to Cheltenham with most races having their own thread. I have been posting there (under a different name) for about 5-6 years. It’s an excellent forum with good friendly banter and some very clued-up people.
#632
February 28th, 2012 22:20
….Graham has kept us informed with The Niches’ plans for a couple of years now. Telling us of the injury he had in his first National, and informing us of the move to PN’s before most people knew. A few of us were on the Niche for the Irish National, so we’ve followed his career with great interest, and it’s wonderful that Graham shares it with us.
#633
February 29th, 2012 00:24
The Stayer thanks for info.
Do you have to sign on like this site ?
If I do, just so I know what’s your name on it ?
#634
February 29th, 2012 07:48
Red Alligator
OHRacing.net is another with cheltenham forum.
#635
February 29th, 2012 08:54
THAT’S A GOOD LOOKING HORSE ON THE FRONT OF THIS WEEK’S WEEKENDER !!!
#636
February 29th, 2012 09:13
Red Alligator,
You need to register on the site (basically set up a username and password and give an email address) but the only difference to here is that you only give your email address once when you register and then you use your username and password to login and post.
I basically post under my Christian name. Within the Cheltenham Festival sub-forum I started the thread on “Festival Handicaps” so you can see my username from there.
#637
February 29th, 2012 10:07
I am not too sure how reliable this early list is but i am told those scratched from the race yesterday were.
Qhilimar
northenr alliance
blazing tempo
little josh
cooldine
#638
February 29th, 2012 10:14
I hope you’re wrong re Cooldine! What time are they supposed to be announced?
#639
February 29th, 2012 10:23
They look correct. If you look at Oddschecker, ToteSport have not priced up those 5 horses so they must have been scratched. Shame about Cooldine but at least I haven’t done any money there.
#640
February 29th, 2012 10:24
Red; TheRacingForum has a very extensive Cheltenham section, including a TRF versus pricewise thread which is interesting. I guess there was always a doubt about Cooldine and I never thought they’d risk the mare. Pity about Cooldine, though. Looks like he’s going to become a ‘nearly’ horse.
#641
February 29th, 2012 10:29
Those five also missing from BetFred’s list – this year they are the official betting partner
#642
February 29th, 2012 11:26
Prince De Beauchene; new OR155, 12lbs well in for GN, RPR>GNOR 12.
#643
February 29th, 2012 11:28
just found this :
http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/news/12426/7553730/National-hope-runs-for-charity
so one will definately run and sounds to me like both are intended to line up.
#644
February 29th, 2012 11:59
See the handicappers are having a whinge on the RP site again. Can’t they just appreciate that, like economic forecasters, they are paid to get things wrong?
#645
February 29th, 2012 12:31
Just had a look at this very strong stat from crips73 (post 540).
“40% of chases ran were h’cap chases – 21/21″
In my won short list the following do not qualify:
Planet of Sound
Only 21.4% of chase runs were handicaps (very very low).
Other neagtives:
11.05 – at very top of winning weight range but most likely to be more than 14lb above bottom weight.
Only five runs Chase/Hurdle at 24f or more (8 needed so not even close)
Chicargo Grey
20% of chase runs were handicaps (very very low).
Other negatives:
Novice Last Season (not impossible but harder)
Only completed 3 Han Chases (needs 4, a 9/10 stat) and has not won even one of those three (a 9/10 stat)
So these two cannot be rocomended even if they do have 3 stars or 3stars- (minus) in my GN system. Too mnay important negatives.
Other notable runners (mentioned in this blog) who fail the “40% of chases ran were h’cap chases” star are:
Massini’s Maguire 33.3%
Rare Bob (sorry fans!) 34.7%
The Midnight Club 22.2%
Just cant understand all the blog support for TMC – OK he came a lucky 6th last year (“blundered 3rd, struggling when badly hampered 4 out, kept on from 2 out”) but this is grasping at straws surely?
All of the above look unlikely GN winners this year unless another run changes an important stat in their case.
#646
February 29th, 2012 12:38
Looks like i have lost another imprtant post – foolishly trusted the blog again and failed to save (hope it turns up). Cant do whole post again. But to say these look unlikey winners:
40% of chase runs wre h’cap chases 21/21 (crisp73 post 540)- avery strong trend – ignore at your peril.
Planet of Sound
Chicargo Grey
Both the above score well in my system but not now.
Also take out:
Massinia’s Maguire
Rare Bob
The midight Club (crazy support on this blog!!)
#647
February 29th, 2012 12:40
Perhaps one of the fans of TMC would like to stand up and say why he looks so good. I am happy to take on the anti position and tell you why i think he wont win.
#648
February 29th, 2012 12:55
I wasn’t massively keen on his chances last season. I thought he was a bit inexperienced for the race given he was a second-season novice with only 7 or 8 chases under his belt. After he won the Bobbyjo last season the value completely went and he was too short thereafter.
But now he’s been round there once and has got some more chase experience under his belt I do fancy him, especially given the price this year compared to last year. Aside from being brought-down in that hurdle race earlier in the season he looks to have had a perfect prep and the handicapper has dropped him a few lbs. He’s never won on good ground but looking at his form on a sound surface gives me a huge amount of confidence. A close-up 3rd behind class animals like Weapons Amnesty and Pride of Dulcote in an Albert Bartlett and another close-up third in a Jewson (old handicap version). He’s also been a close 3rd to Kempes and China Rock on good ground in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. That is really solid, high-class form and 145 in a handicap doesn’t look a bad mark to me.
It’s interesting that connections want to run him in the Gold Cup this year. If you look back at some of the form highlighted above he certainly would not be out of place in a Gold Cup. Over the last 2 seasons the National has been the plan so they have shielded him from such races in order to protect his handicap mark. Now he’s 11 and not getting younger they obviously feel like having a crack en route to Aintree. He will probably run much better than the 200/1 some bookies are offering.
#649
February 29th, 2012 13:28
Positive about TMC is he is a trend horse. Negative is that Ruby said he didn’t handle the course wasn’t enjoying the experience. So depends which side of the fence you are. Can’t have him myself but can understand the arguments for and against.
#650
February 29th, 2012 13:36
precisely Mike N. fits all the trends nicely and another year in the bag. no races to note this year but no worse form than my two thus far killyglen and chicago grey. i was put off by ruby’s comments about the experience but why enter him? that would just be plain cruel. arguments both ways as you say. he would make my shortlist on trends but then finer details would drop him out atm. mullins said he had a good chance if they could get him back, indicating he hasnt been right yet this Season. take the risk? or lose the value if he runs well in the Gold Cup. kept on is the comment so he will stay and encounter better ground this year.
#651
February 29th, 2012 13:40
I think Mike sums it up quite well in just a few short lines:
Pros: – trends pick (trained for the race, age, experience, form profile), spring/good ground form, bigger price than last year, been dropped a few lbs.
Cons: – ??? over whether or not he handled the course last time, possible ??? over current form, Ruby looks like passing him over this time.
#652
February 29th, 2012 13:40
am down to 7 now that i just cant shake,
1. ACCORDING TO PETE
2. ALWAYS WAINING
3. NICHE MARKET
4. PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
5. UNCLE JUNIOR
6. WEST END ROCKER
in no particular order above betting wise :
1. westend rocker
2. PDB
3. according to pete.
#653
February 29th, 2012 13:41
oops meant 6 not 7
#654
February 29th, 2012 13:46
I take your points Stayer but surely the attemmpted 3m 4f not in the first 3 is a more pertinent point, that’s my position anyway, I totally take your point he has the necessary class, but will he stay the distance. Also I think I am right in saying he’s not won a h’cap chase, correct me if I am wrong on this one. It’s all a matter of opinion I know, but for this reason not for me I’m with Systems on this one.
#655
February 29th, 2012 13:55
Baggy depends what u mean by a good run. I see him well beaten in that myself and then u will get the fanboys saying it was just a prep and the haters dismissing him even more.
#656
February 29th, 2012 14:00
Dragonman Always Waining will not stay. Uncle Junior is he not a cross country slowcoach? Can’t remember.
#657
February 29th, 2012 14:00
TMC was bought to win a National, that’s why they want to try again. Worth an ew for the GC though at that price. Often get a huge priced horse coming third [I usually back the wrong one, though].
#658
February 29th, 2012 14:03
dRAGONMAN
I will repeat myself for about the 3rd time on this blog re.Always Waining.
I am a big fan won lots of ackers on him twice winning the Topham. He jumped the course brilliantly both times. Unfortunately his own connections say he doesn’t get further than 3m 2f, not in first 3 in last 3 races, attempted 3m 6f FOUR times and PU on all four. So what is the reason you have him in your top six because the above is about as damming evidence as you can get that HE JUST WON’T STAY.
If you came onto blog late this year and haven’t read me already say this big APOLOGIES.
#659
February 29th, 2012 14:04
Thanks for the help on those two Mike
#660
February 29th, 2012 14:10
Don’t think Uncle Junior has won a 17k race has he guys ?
#661
February 29th, 2012 14:10
Red Alligator,
Those stats, whilst pertinent to yourself, are not two that I follow so to me they are irrelevant. I don’t care that he’s tried 3m4f (once in the National itself) and not finished in the top 3. He was 6th after meeting trouble in running and would have been closer if it were not for that. I’m also not concerned that he’s not won a handicap chase. He’s won a Gd2 and been placed in Gd1 races over fences and hurdles which to me show that he has a sufficient level of abilty and class to win a National.
#662
February 29th, 2012 14:11
I have been trying to devise a scoring system and have tested it on previous years and it’s looking pretty good.
I have a number of criteria where generally speaking the horse scores a positive number for meeting a particular criterion and zero if they do not. They can score a minus for certain things however.
I’ve used the following as my starting point,
Number of chase runs
Highest Hcap winning mark (if applicable)
Number of chase wins over 3 miles
Highest number of runners they have encountered when either won or placed
Number of left handed wins
Furthest distance won
Furthest distance placed
Age
Won or placed at Aintree before (incl. Mildmay)
Career chase falls/ur’s
Novice this season
Novice last season
Won a chase over 3.5m with 14 or more runners
Placed in a chase with 14 or more runners
Prior runs during season
Runs since Boxing Day
Have they hurdled during the season
Third or more attempt in the race
Days since last win
Days since last run
Lady jockey (minus)
Ran in a race at Cheltenham
Are they a previous winner of the race (minus)
Weight (minus i.e starting with -10 for 11st 10lbs, -9 for 11st 9lbs etc.)
Obviously this year’s cannot be completed until they have all had their preps etc.
Nevertheless, using my method the last eight National winners have scored 72.5 points or greater, with Hedgehunter the lowest of these scorers primarily because he had not won left handed prior to winning. Rather annoyingly the highest scorer was Mon Mome with 85 points.
I do understand that you don’t have the context of the scoring so this means nothing.
However my scores for the last eight winners are thus,
Ballbriggs 77.5
Don’t Push It 75.0
Mon Mome 85.0
Comply Or Die 82.5
Silver Birch 77.5
Numbersixvalverde 80.0
Hedgehunter 72.5
Amberleigh House 75.0
So I looked again at last year and thought – ok, what if I had just considered those horses that scored 72.5 and over and these are the horses in 2011 that did just that,
Don’t Push It 92.5
Ballabriggs 77.5
Silver By Nature 77.5
Niche Market 77.5
Vic Venturi 77.5
Bluesea Cracker 75.0
Oscar Time 72.5
State Of Play 72.5
West End Rocker 72.5
Arbor Supreme 72.5
That’s not bad I think! The fact that Silver By Nature was in there did make me want to tinker with this year’s one by putting in a minus 10 score for anything with Strong Gale in but I have resisted thus far!
So for this year’s race the following currently stand with 72.5 points or more but this can of course change between now and April.
Rare Bob 92.5
Always Right 85.0
Le Beau Bai 82.5
Uncle Junior 82.5
According To Pete 77.5
Giles Cross 77.5
Scotsirish 75.5
Some Target 75.0
Always Waining 72.5
Will no doubt let you know the final outcome sometime in March!
#663
February 29th, 2012 14:36
Stayer
I agree. Failure to place in one attempt over 3m 4f does not a non stayer make! Pretty sure I posted on here previously about this using Comply Or Die as an example.
Before his Eider win he was 0 from 4 over 3m 4f+.
#664
February 29th, 2012 14:39
King Fontaine now out as well, I believe.
#665
February 29th, 2012 14:45
Nick Mordin in Weekender “Since 1988 72 horses have run in the National with more than 11st 5lb – and they’ve all lost”. “In fact, since 1957 the only horse to carry more tha 11st 5lb and win the big race was the great Red Rum- a horse freakishly well suited to the conditions of the Grand National and could win despite burdens other horses have found impossible to win with.”
#666
February 29th, 2012 15:06
Interestingly with defections, only 2 out of top forty I wonder how many have realised newly installed favourite Prince De Beauchene and Pearlysteps now guaranteed a run!!
First reserve now The Niche.
Incidentally in the Weekender Paul Kealy 10 winning weeks from last 16 tips up Niche Market with 3 stars for the VETERANS RACE anybody not on you probably need to make a decision before the 33/1 goes.
#667
February 29th, 2012 15:50
West End Rocker – Alan King says “I have been very pleased with how things have gone since you last saw him and I am praying that the ground doesn’t dry up too much for him.” going for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster if ground dry’s up has other entries but really wants him to run in this as it is the perfect prep. Reading in between the lines he sounds more than a little hopeful for GN but not sure he would like GOOD ground.
#668
February 29th, 2012 16:01
I HOPE HE KEEPS HIS RUN UP !!!
We were hoping to have a few quid on this weekend and i got to the news-stand this morning and there’s The Niche stareing back at me !!!
Not quite under the radar now, it’ll be like a triathlon start on friday to get a few quid down !!!
#669
February 29th, 2012 16:15
Graham good luck on Sat. I have a large EW on your fella in the GN btw!
Just out of interest (not sure if you can help) but do you know the well being of Tricky Trickster, Master Minded and The Minnack? TT did something to his neck when falling in the Midland Nash in 2010 and looked a GN prospect.
Thanks
Sean
#670
February 29th, 2012 16:22
I’m on with you as well for The National have been chipping away since last August !! I feel he has a great chance of placing once again.
From what I can gather,
Tricky Trickster is going to be ok, I think there may be a plan to run him in hunter chases next season.
As regards, Master Minded and The Minack all I know is what has been in the press.
#671
February 29th, 2012 16:24
Strange but true Fair Along has only ever won between May – October.
#672
February 29th, 2012 16:25
How is Toby Lerone? I’ve seen him. Looked very impressive.
#673
February 29th, 2012 16:27
Toby Lerone is very well thanks, he has won two point to points now, a maiden and restricted, and will hopefully run in a bumper at Chepstow on the 22nd of March.
#674
February 29th, 2012 16:29
Interesting comment from Denis O’Regan when asked “If you were given £1,000 for an antepost charity bet, what would it be”.
He said Giles Cross e.w. for the IRISH NATIONAL.
“To my mind he is tailormade for the race, providing he gets his preferred soft ground”
INTERESTING !!
#675
February 29th, 2012 16:35
Cheers for info Graham. Good to see TT back soon.
Yeah Niche looks solid EW. The one I’ve backed since Oct is WER. Chipped away prob a bit too much at 33′s and 20′s.
I’ll chuck a bit on Niche on Sat too. If he comes out the GN fine are we gearing next season for 2012??? (Or you a take every race as it comes kinda guy?!)
#676
February 29th, 2012 16:36
RA.
Peter Hobbs tells me they’ve positioned the stable calender around the corner & out of site from him this year.
Actually its not true.
#677
February 29th, 2012 16:37
Oh, ok thanks. I will keep my eye out. I saw his sister ran a decent race in Ireland at the weekend. Looks a decent family.
#678
February 29th, 2012 16:43
Graham,
I might try a reverse forecast with The Niche & Fair Along on Saturday.
#679
February 29th, 2012 16:56
RA,
Fair Along has never been placed outside the top two finishers in any chase on 14th April !!!
#680
February 29th, 2012 17:13
Best RPR > GNOR of last 20 GN winners –
1 x 4(ballabriggs), 1 x 5, 3 x 7, 4 x 8, 1 x 9, 1 x 10, 1 x 11, 4 x 12, 1 x 15, 1 x 16, 1 x 18, and 1 x 25.
T/S, best RPR, GNOR, best RPR > GNOR.
—-154 150 04 ballabriggs.
—-160 153 07
150 155 148 07
150 155 139 16
130 150 138 12
138 146 138 08
126 156 144 12
136 154 139 15
111 148 139 09
143 144 136 08
155 152 140 12
159 164 139 25
142 153 142 11
151 157 147 10
148 157 149 08
167 170 152 18
165 163 155 08
156 160 153 07
145 158 153 05
147 160 148 12
#681
February 29th, 2012 17:33
Perhaps we shouldnt read too much into but Miko De Beauchene didn’t quite get home over 3m 7f in my local National just a few minutes ago when looking all over the winner.
His half brother Prince De Beauchene’s stamina is in no way guarenteed for Aintree. The more I see of this family the more I begin to doubt their ability to stay four miles plus.
The fact that he is so well in may help him see out the trip better but it is open to question.
#682
February 29th, 2012 17:45
Ok Mike I wasn’t being sarcastic,just telling what I read in the Weekender.
In same paper Ken Pitterson paddock expert said Planet Of Sound looked in reasonable shape considering he has been off since finishing second in the Hennessy at the end of Novemeber. His overall performance lacked a liitle zing, but hopefully this will have put him spot on for the Grand National.
That makes me personally a little happier, than the perhaps slightly negative view I had taken of his run.
Thoughts guys, did he just need the run and will come on for it?.
#683
February 29th, 2012 18:01
Red in reference to WER not wanting good ground I need to clear things up. On GN day they water a lot to avoid the wrath of the animal rights folk. So it ends up riding nearly or actually good to soft. Up at doncaster it may be genuinely fast hence A Kings concerns about doncaster and his zero concerns about Aintree.
#684
February 29th, 2012 18:03
TRAINER Victor Dartnall is increasingly tempted to run recent Haydock scorer Giles Cross in the John Smith’s Grand National on April 14.
RELATED LINKS
Grand National race card
Grand National betting
Free bets
Giles Cross form
After a brave effort to finish runner-up in the Coral Welsh National in December, Giles Cross went one better in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on his last start.
As the National weights had already been published prior to that race, Giles Cross would be able to run off his original handicap mark, a fact that has not escaped Dartnall.
“I was very pleased with his effort at Haydock,” he said. “They [the handicappers] have given him a 6lb rise, but he is in the Grand National off his old mark, which makes it even more tempting to run at Aintree.”
The ten-year-old, who has been allotted a weight of just 10st 1lb for the race, features among 77 horses going forward for the National following thisweek’s scratchings deadline.
Dartnall maintains that Giles Cross would only run at Aintree with some give in the ground. He added: “He’s in the Irish Grand National as well, but if it looked like it was going to come upsoft at Aintree we would be very tempted.
“Good to soft ground would probably be all right, though if we had a wet time we will definitely be there.”
Giles Cross is a 20-1 chance with Betfred for the National.
Just five horses – Blazing Tempo, Little Josh, Cooldine, Northern Alliance and Qhilimar – were taken out of the race on Wednesday.
#685
February 29th, 2012 18:12
ST I agree. I mentioned in an earlier post that the last half mile will be unknown territory for PDB
#686
February 29th, 2012 18:24
Topped up WER at 20/1 today – now that cant last much longer. Gonna be in any top 3 stats/trends list so might as well fill up now but still not sure about that extra 12lb though. If is was not for PDB and Seabass (silly prices)that price would be impossible to get.
#687
February 29th, 2012 18:34
Systemsman I talk about WERs chances you put more on. Hope u haven’t put your mortgage on it lol
#688
February 29th, 2012 18:39
Systemsman Post 684
Yet again great minds, is it Lads that has 20/1 because I need to top up before weekend, couldn’t agree more price only 20/1 because last run in dim and distant for bookies. But if he runs saturday sure to be slashed, to another joint fav.
#689
February 29th, 2012 18:58
Having reviewed the weekend racing a little more today I would say the horse that did best this weekend didn’t actually run – if that makes sense.
Using Magnanimity as a source you would have to say TREACLE is the one that should have plummetted in price once again.
PDB probably could have won further so say he could have added another 10 lengths to his winning margin. He would therefore have beaten Magnanimity by say 20 lengths although PDB was in receipt of 5lbs. However Treacle off levels beat the same horse by a country mile and although Magnanimity was heavily eased when beaten the distance between them would have nonetheless been much greater than that with PDB.
Treacle gives PDB 2lbs in the National and although he will be in receipt of 9lbs in future handicaps I think he has come out of Saturday better than the winner if taking form literally.
#690
February 29th, 2012 18:59
Anyone know of any entries for Shakalakaboomboom ?
#691
February 29th, 2012 19:06
Just out of interest who do people think SHOULD be favourite at this stage – who deserves to be at the head of the market on all known form this season?
PDB should probably be up there but more for his Troytown form given that Cape Cross and Groody Hill have franked this rather well since. But if I were a bookie I’d probably have Neptune Collonges a lot higher in the market.
#692
February 29th, 2012 19:06
ST I did a similar comparison between WER and PDB through Rare Bob and WER came out way ahead. PDB did what he had to do but nothing more.
#693
February 29th, 2012 19:46
Systemsman I love your posts with all positives and negatives.
Have you done According To Pete/Shakalakaboomboom or Treacle yet?
I ask re.Treacle because I don’t quite get it, but Pricewise tipped up and others keep mentioning so maybe we need a closer look.Don’t think he’s won a Class 1 or 2 has he?
#694
February 29th, 2012 19:50
ST.
I’m not convinced the Irish form is that strong. Do a line with Treacle through Some target to Giles Cross.
#695
February 29th, 2012 20:05
ST.
Also a line with PDB through some target with Giles Cross. I know it was PDB’ first run of season but even so it gives PDB 20 Lengths to find for a 1 lbs weght difference. As I have said before, I see the hype but not the form to substantiate it!
#696
February 29th, 2012 20:08
Changes to THE BIG STAT included the days before last run stat from last weekend, otherwise I may get confused.
1. Planet Of Sound +27 -5 = +22
2. West End Rocker +28 -7 = +21
3. Giles Cross +24 -3 = +21
4. Ballabriggs +26 -6 = +20
5=.Prince De Beauchene +24 -4 =+20
5=.Rare Bob +24 -4 = +20
7. State Of Play +27 -8 = +19
8. Le Beau Bai +25 -6 = +19
9. Junior +24 -7 = +17
10.According To Pete +23 -6 = +17
I will do a longer version after this weekend
Note I have deducted a point off State Of Play for no prep run, in the unlikely event he has one I will obviously put it back.
#697
February 29th, 2012 20:42
MC
Couldn’t agree more. Giles Cross is looking stronger each day. Just need him first to get in (should be ok) and second to run. Fortification franked the Fontwell form at the weekend as did Victor’s Serenade convincingly last week. The Welsh National form is now one of the most rock solid pieces of form this year. HAS to be on anyone’s shortlist. I can’t understand it if he’s not.
#698
February 29th, 2012 20:47
Mike N, WER (+ Junior)was my first anti post investment a long time ago just topped up a little bit more. I never invest what i cant afford to lose but the GN is my big investment of the year (other than ESContest)spred across the winter months as i have stated last year its a sort of savings plan when it all works out according to the plan that is – if i lose its still been a lot of fun.
#699
February 29th, 2012 20:50
Red Alligator – its Lads but dont tell anyone else!!(the bookies do monitor this site whatever others may think). It will look rather good six weeks from now.
#700
February 29th, 2012 20:56
“Red Alligator
February 29th, 2012 19:46
Systemsman I love your posts with all positives and negatives.
Have you done According To Pete/Shakalakaboomboom or Treacle yet?”
Just for you I will do all three tomorrow morning.
#701
February 29th, 2012 21:07
#646 SYSTEMSMAN got to agree TMC gets a lot of backing on this forum but I just don’t get it,last year ruby said he wasn’t travelling and didn’t like it at all,another horse who keeps getting tipped up on this forum is RARE BOB his last 4 RACES he’s been beaten 13L,56L,59L,69L hardly the form to get your juices flowing for the 2012GN, but hey that’s only my opinion……opinions are like backsides,everyone’s got one.
#702
February 29th, 2012 21:16
Seven Towers Giles Cross isnt on my shortlist im afraid. Love the hoese to bits, backed him the last twice. But I dont think it will be soft enough for him so they will then go to Ireland with him. Not sure he’ll get the trip either with his bold front running style. Both Simon Holt and myself think he struggles when he gets to 4m+
#703
February 29th, 2012 21:20
ALSO,while I’m on my soapbox why do people keep tipping up STATE OF PLAY,even with the strongest will in the world it surely can’t win the 2012GN with no prep runs,it hasn’t WON a race since NOV 2008 yet people still talk it up….frightening,RANT OVER.
#704
February 29th, 2012 21:45
Galileo I think the people you prefer to try to get a decent price EW hoping they can sneak a place. Otherwise youre right, i dont get it.
#705
February 29th, 2012 21:51
“#699
galileo
February 29th, 2012 21:07
#646 SYSTEMSMAN got to agree TMC gets a lot of backing on this forum but I just don’t get it,last year ruby said he wasn’t travelling and didn’t like it at all,another horse who keeps getting tipped up on this forum is RARE BOB his last 4 RACES he’s been beaten 13L,56L,59L,69L hardly the form to get your juices flowing for the 2012GN, but hey that’s only my opinion……opinions are like backsides,everyone’s got one.”
My backside says collateral form can be dodgy at the best of times (prep, going, distance, target etc not the same for all horses in every race) – especially through an out-of-form horse like Rare Bob.
#706
February 29th, 2012 22:18
Galileo I for one totally agree with regard to Rare Bob and I can honestly say if it wins I still didn’t fancy it at all. Form must count a lot and even though it comes in my Top Ten on stats, thats all that is a Top Ten on stats.
State Of Play – even though I don’t fancy it aother than ew, I would be very loathe to discount it completely, only in as much it has a great place record in the race, and it is on a lower weight again. Still say if you watch last year he came from the clouds, so IF FIT, which we probably won’t know he would be my choice as the best priced outsider at 40/1. My worry would be on GOOD TO SOFT which is likely ground he gets outpaced and then stays on late when others are tiring.So as a likely winner which is what we are trying to find, VERY VERY UNLIKELY.
#707
February 29th, 2012 22:30
Papillon’s form 99-00 season;
beaten 53 lengths,
beaten 44 lengths,
beaten 27 lengths,
beaten 20 lengths,
beaten 34 lengths,
then runs a decent hurdle race as trainer whips him in to ship for his seasons goal, the GN.
Rare Bob; Dessie Hughes,”I was pleased with Rare Bob(in the Bobbyjo chase). He ran a nice race. It’s quite a bit before the National, so he’ll probably have another run before then maybe in a hurdle race, too.”
A blog post-it. Look out for Rare Bob’s last prep before writing him off!!!
#708
February 29th, 2012 22:31
I think Ruby’s comments regarding TMC have been given The Daily Mail treatment! I don’t know where all this “the horse hated it” stuff has come from. What Ruby actually said (and this is on Willie’s website) is that the mistake he made early, which knocked his confidence and he jumped carefully thereafter. That’s not the same as hating it at all. If he really hated it, would Willie Mullins and the owners have spent this season gearing him up for another crack?
#709
February 29th, 2012 22:31
Update on the ground for WER this weekend. The going stick is 9.4 at Doncaster with a dry week ahead so unlikely to run there I would imagine.
The going stick at Newbury is 6.7 (Good, Good to soft) with some rain forecast Friday and Saturday, so he will probably run there over 2m4f and not in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster.
#710
February 29th, 2012 22:32
Watching last year’s Cheltenham Festival races while I’m decorating the living room. Listening to the races more than watching them [obviously] but hadn’t realised that Rare Bob pulled up in the handicap on the first day; went on to run at Aintree so not sure what the problem was. One thing that sticks in my mind is Simon Holt saying that Fair Along wasn’t jumping well but, at the end of the race he said ‘and it’s Fair Along staying on from the clouds’ [or something like that]. Need to sit down and watch the race properly and dig the weights out as well. Rare Bob was jumping incredibly well till he pulled up.
#711
February 29th, 2012 22:38
Maureen he mustve been ok after coz he then ran in the h’cap chase on GN day. (unseated rider).
#712
February 29th, 2012 22:39
oops sorry you had already mentioned that. lol
#713
February 29th, 2012 22:53
Maureen,
Funny you should mention that because I was watching the 2011 Festival replays in RUK over the weekend and paid particualr attention to that race. Rare Bob was jumping and travelling really well but as they made the turn out past the stands you see Paddy Flood look over to the jockey in second, say something and then pull Rare Bob up after the next fence when still leading. I remember at the time being puzzled and I have a dim recollection that that something went amiss with Paddy Flood and not the horse. Gold star for anyone that knows for sure!
#714
February 29th, 2012 22:58
The Midnight Club – I think it was the 3rd fence, the ditch, he stood off a long way and nearly landed on top of the fence. That’s what Ruby Walsh was talking about, I think, he mentioned it on TV when interviewed after the race.
#715
February 29th, 2012 23:03
Just found this comment ….. ” Rare bob was the leader on the second circuit but was pulled up lame.”
can be found here :
http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/festival-handicap-chase-results.php
#716
February 29th, 2012 23:03
testing testing
#717
February 29th, 2012 23:06
Stayer your right i think
Paddy Flood stood himself down straight after with a dislocated shoulder, which implies the horse was ok.
#718
February 29th, 2012 23:09
Might re watch it in a bit [when I've washed the paint brushes]. I’m going to try to watch all of last years races over the next week, as it’s our Cheltenham preview next Thursday. Always annoying when you realise you’ve actually seen a horse you’re now interested in, but didn’t notice it at the time [we always go on the Tuesday].
#719
February 29th, 2012 23:15
I think there is a forgotten horse on this year’s forum. That horse is Becauseicouldntsee.
And hes 40-1. As an EW bet?
#720
February 29th, 2012 23:25
testing
#721
February 29th, 2012 23:27
found a comment regarding paddy flood and rare bob but forum wont let me post its regarding his shoulder as already mentioned.
#722
February 29th, 2012 23:28
Rider Paddy Flood then pulled him up, reportedly with a breathing problem. That doesn’t sit comfortably with me and the fact that Flood stood himself down with a shoulder problem immediately afterwards suggests it was jockey and not horse who had an issue.
#723
February 29th, 2012 23:33
I think with TMC at aged 11 they might as well run in the GN. I still think he didnt like it last year. Arbor Supreme dont like it round there either he keeps falling but that hasnt stopped them having another go. Dont ask me why they enter these horses.
#724
February 29th, 2012 23:52
Thanks Mike and Dragonman for confirming that regarding Paddy Flood.
Mike,
With respect to TMC, I don’t think it’s a case of letting him have a go because he’s 11. According to Willie’s website this has been the plan all season and he has been campaigned accordingly. Given that he is 11 (as you stated) that must mean connections think he has a chance because if they didn’t they would sod the handicap mark and run him in anything and everything and try to win what they can before he’s past it. Clearly though this is his last shot because they are running him in the GC and a good run there could see hime ruin his mark for what’s left of his career.
#725
February 29th, 2012 23:57
Rare Bob –
23 chases with 4 wins = 17.39%
34 career runs with 4 wins – woeful.
#726
March 1st, 2012 00:38
I am finding sticking to my guns is difficult, given that every time you decide a horse is not for you or stats are against him somebody comes on with one you have red penned and tells you they may be on to something, so I have decided I will not be deflected in my thoughts re.horses I have already discounted unless somebody gives a very compelling reason or they do something pretty special in the next 3 weeks. My BIG STAT told me a lot and I am constantly referring back to the horses on it and making judgments which are the most important stats and which aren’t. For example if I fancy a horse enough a woman jockey will not put me off if she is a good jockey, sorry guys but the few at the top of their trade are
every bit as good and in some cases better than some of the men and I for one think the day will come given the right horse when we will see this happen.
#727
March 1st, 2012 00:39
Rare Bob had 11.10 in the Cheltenham race [he had a lot of weight at Aintree as well]. Seems to be a horse that, having won at Leopardstown [?] early in his career was well and truly clobbered by the handicapper. Mind you, he wears blinkers, sems to be a front runner and Ted Walsh eluded to him wanting the race to go his way [sounds like a sulker]. But, he does jump and his weight has come right down. Fair Along really did stay on well [11.7] but you’d have to say he’ll not cope with the Aintree fences.
#728
March 1st, 2012 00:52
An example of what I mean is The Gold Cup horses Apt Approach,Burton Port,Junior,Midnight Chase,Mon Mome,Quel Esprit,Synchronised,The Midnight Club and Weird Al 9 v.good horses and whilst only 4 really interest me, it is a waiting game for these horses.
Giles Cross (with a run) & Le Beau Bai almost certainly will not do unless SOFT but if it was, would back.
#729
March 1st, 2012 04:58
For the 3rd time, Always Waning is an Aintree Specialist and is entered by the trainer, not owner, and will win at 40/1
#730
March 1st, 2012 08:01
Maureen,
I noticed he was quite scrappy at some of the earlier fences in the Hennessy as well but improved his jumping fluency towards the end of the race. Perhaps his hurdling experience has taught him to jump just high enough & economically. The Aintree fences are a concern for all who havn’t experienced before but the loose birch on top may make them more forgiving for him. He’s small but has only failed to cope when unseating at last once in 15 chases. Don’t give up hope yet. Saturday against The Niche will be interesting & hopefully give us a clearer picture re his chances!
#731
March 1st, 2012 08:11
PS That was only his second chase run, back after a 3 year break.
#732
March 1st, 2012 09:02
Fair Along –
15 chases with 3 wins = 20%
Last chase win dec ’06, 13 chases ago.
Down for 2 chases – sat and chelt.
Needs a win to stay in the hunt.
#733
March 1st, 2012 09:03
TMC has divided opinions. Ur either with him or against him.
#734
March 1st, 2012 09:23
Red Alligator,
Sticking to my guns is my golden rule of betting. Never let anyone convince you to back a horse you can’t see winning or even worse NOT back a horse that you really like. I learnt this lesson some years ago. If you don’t know about a horse or a race then do seek and listen to advice, but if you have already formed an opinion about something that you are satisfied with, then don’t let what others say influence your conclusions.
#735
March 1st, 2012 09:26
There are hardly any negative trends with rare bob except his form and whether he is actually good enough. he ran 4th in irish national (beaten fair by niche market). only once run under 11st since and mostly graded races. had a run over national fences. likes good ground (though only won on soft and heavy). 17lb pull with WER with heavy ground as excuse, 20lb pull with seabass over shorter trip, 10lb pull with PdB on aintree form where he fell. There just seems a lot of excuses, you take it on trust that he will improve enough for distance (comments say kept on rather than stayed on well) and course and to be honest Niche Market is still better in on Irish National and Becher form and I only fancy him for ew. I was tempted but not on review.
#736
March 1st, 2012 09:43
The Stayer very sound advice, seems obvious but it can be easy to be swayed, will stay firm.
Rare Bob not for me but was does his Pedigree say, over to the experts?
#737
March 1st, 2012 09:50
I was watching some more of the Cheltenham 11 action last night and saw the Kim Muir. The run of pace-setter and eventual 3rd (Deal Done) really caught my eye. He was set alight too early on the second circut and blew-up 2-out but he travelled through the race like much the best horse. He had Junior pretty hard at work to keep up at one point and given that this horse was rated 136 at the time you have to wonder if Junior will have the tactical pace to keep up with better class horses he will be up against at Aintree.
#738
March 1st, 2012 10:06
Found this on Nick Mordin’s websiate…
“Prince De Beauchene (40) was impressive when winning the Grade 2 Bobby Jo Chase off a strong pace in fast time. He was always close up and going better than his rivals and powered away to win in good style.
However, there are a couple of things about PDB’s record that make him look a bad proposition for the GN – a race for which he is now clear favourite. First, only 1 of the last 21 GN winners (Bindaree) unseated its rider in one of their last 17 starts before the big race. If the same proportion of National runners has unseated that recently over the last 21 years as they have over the last 14 then 256 have done so for that single success.
The Grand National fences are taller than at other tracks and horses inevitably land more steeply – increasing the risk of them propelling their rider out of the saddle. It therefore makes sense that if a horse has unseated its rider at all recently it will be a poor risk to complete the course let alone win around Aintree.
Prince De Beauchene has unseated his rider not once but twice in his last 17 starts.
The other concern is that PDB may not be at his best around giant 2m oval tracks like Aintree. He’s lost all 3 times he’s raced around tracks that big but would have won 7 out of 8 times he’s run beyond 12f on smaller tracks off 10 weeks or less but for unseating once in France.
PDB is clearly much better than his OR of 143. However, there’s a big difference between being well handicapped and actually winning the GN.
Makes for very interesting reading….
#739
March 1st, 2012 10:23
Other valuable snippets of info…..
“Runner Up Planet of Sound (40 – same speed rating as PDB) went a long way to validating an odd theory i’ve had about him – the idea that he’s best on giant 2m tracks like Newbury.
If he hadn’t jumped poorly in one of his early starts and pulled hard in another when 2nd POS would probably have won all 8 times he ran on tracks 2m or more in circumference before this smart run. He’s lost all his other 11 starts.
The obvious explanation for this odd pattern in his form is that he has exhibited breathing problems in the past. Around tracks smaller than 2m in circumference the pace slows around the turns and then speeds up again on the straights. He probably prefers a steady, non varying demand on his breathing.
This being so, the suggested target of the GN looks like being a good one. The GN course is dead flat and 2m2f around. I can easily see him running a big race in the GN.”
If this theory is correct this would explain his 3rd at Kempton last weekend and under such circumstances he would have run a good race. It seems perfectly plausible to me.
PDB now 10/1 whilst POS can still be backed at 33/1. Doesn’t take a genius to work out where the value lies there.
I’ve been reading a lot of comments on here recently and again i think a lot of people get too carried away with stats. The nature of the race is obviously changing. The way i approach it is to apply 7 or 8 very basic stats which the last 20 winners have all conformed to and then try to apply some common sense. There are 28 possible winners on my shortlist so far but many which i don’t fancy at all. Factors such as a novice last season, pedigree and not placed at 3m4f+ i take into account but don’t necessarily rule horses out because of these.
#740
March 1st, 2012 10:45
The Stayer you got it wrong he’ll be leading them, I hope!!
#741
March 1st, 2012 11:23
Didn’t Deal Done then run in the Irish National and do exactly the same thing? I can’t remember for sure but I think he did.
#742
March 1st, 2012 11:35
For the form experts how do the likes of Quiscover Fontaine, Sunnyhillboy & Organisedconfusion compare with Junior through a line with Deal Done? I would hazard a guess at favourably for Sunnyhillboy & Quiscover.
#743
March 1st, 2012 12:05
If my crude calculations are correct then Deal Done was beaten 27.5l by Junior but DD was giving Junior 2lbs. That equates to 25.5l.
Using the same method i.e. coutning each pound either way as an additional length then Deal Done was beaten by the following and by the stated distance,
Junior 25.5
Organisedconfusion 23.0
Sunnyhillboy 23.5
Quiscover 22.0
Shakervilz 12.75
Therefore if Junior is on 153 the others on a strict formline with Deal Done should on the following
Junior 153
SHB 151
Organised 150
Qusicover 149
Shakervilz 140
What they are running off is (haven’t got OR’s to hand so guessed using weights),
Junior 153
SHB 140
Organised 145
Quiscover 141
Shakervilz 139
Not so good.
#744
March 1st, 2012 12:13
Seven Towers,
Not too sure how much should be read into this but for what it’s worth here is the info:
Deal Done was beaten 27l by Junior giving Junior 2lbs.
In the National this is how he fared against the horses you mentioned
Organisedconfusion – beaten by 23l off level weights.
Sunnyhillboy – beaten by 17l when getting 8lbs
Quiscover Fontaine – beaten by 12l when getting 11lbs
The ratings for the National are as follows:
Junior 153
Orgconf 145
Sunnyhillboy 142
Quiscover 141
If you take the form at face value and apply the revised ratings then yes, the three Irish National runners do look very well-in against Junior, particularly Sunnyhillboy and Quiscover Fontaine. They get a big pull in the weights (11lbs and 14lbs) against Organisedconfusion for only getting beat by 6l and 11l respectively.
#745
March 1st, 2012 12:16
ST,
Sorry I was obviously typing my post whilst you posted yours. We’re singing roughly from the same hymn-sheet.
#746
March 1st, 2012 12:24
Ah, that’s grand work Stayer. The upshot is what I thought all along i.e. he’s very badly handicapped.
#747
March 1st, 2012 13:13
Feeling really bad today – got some sort of winter bug. Still i will try to hav a go at
According To Pete/Shakalakaboomboom or Treacle as promised.
#748
March 1st, 2012 13:27
I’ve felt your pain Systemsman!
How do we feel about the form between Hold On Julio, Neptune Collonges & Deep Purple through Any Currency? Neptune looks to have 15lbs in hand of Deep Purple and I reckon NC has 4lbs in hand of HOJ. Thoughts? Agree?
#749
March 1st, 2012 13:34
ST,
Junior doesn’t look thrown-in that’s for sure. Have you got any thoughts on the Cheltenham 4-miler? I have heard some murmours for Teaforthree over the last few days. Pretty much the highest rated horse in the race and has good course form. By Oscar but out of a Strong Gale mare so presumably not on your shortlist?
#750
March 1st, 2012 13:39
Systems leave it until next week, if you are not so good. Get well soon.
Actually been studying a lot this am. and I am going off According To Pete quite a lot and will watch him this weekend with a red pen in my hand. Most interested in his last furlong as I am beginning to suspect he won’t stay.
His Good work at the finish stat of 0/6 has worried me since I saw it, haven’t totally discounted but getting close. Also concerned he won twice just before the weights, which would be an unusual profile for a winner, both of them being in Heavy and Soft which is what he seems to have won on in recent past. Beginning to need to be convinced.
#751
March 1st, 2012 13:42
not sure if this has been posted re Giles Cross:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/victor-dartnall-giles-cross-camp-tempted-by-grand-national-bid/993757/top/
#752
March 1st, 2012 13:45
Hold on Julio is too inexperienced, deep purple won’t stay. Neptune might give u a run but probably too high in the weights.
#753
March 1st, 2012 13:49
Powerful Ambition Post 738
Good news for The Prince fans!!
Nick Mordin Feb 2010 Racing Post Weekender just before Don’t Push It wins with 11st 5lb.
His column dedicated to telling you how every conceivable stat told him anything in excess of 11st 2lb has no chance.
Thanks a lot Nick that ensured I missed the winner that year after following your advice.
Pretty sure he made a Horlicks of it last year
as well!
#754
March 1st, 2012 13:49
ST is it right that strong gales stay 4 miles now after portrait kings win in the eider.
#755
March 1st, 2012 13:53
Teaforthree is the RFO ante post tip.
#756
March 1st, 2012 13:55
According To Pete
Postiive:
10.12 in GN: very good
OR 149: very good
1/2/3 at 25f or more in a chase this season: very very good (won at 25f)
Won two C1′s this seson: very good (in form)
13 chase runs. 5 wins: very good profile
OR/RPR +6: very good
Best RPR 153: Good
TS 139: Good
4 runs this season: a good profile
2nd over 30f “led last, kept on but headed near finish”: very good
10x Han Chase: good
Chase 1/2/3 = 61.5%: very good
Chase?Hurdle 1/2/3 + 44.4%: OK
Won C1 28K Han chase: very good
won C2 62K Han Hurdle: very good
Completed 10 Han chases (4 min needed)and won 2 (one needed): very very good
Best OR/GN OR +2: very good
Passes the 40% chase are han chase (10/12 = 76.9%): very very good
Negative:
Age 11 : OK but getting on high side.
No win from Dec 2008 until Dec 2011 (but two in a row!).
No 1/2/3 in acahse with 17 or more runners: not so good, bets is 1/13 but 3/22 in a C1 hurdle at Aintree!!: Could be better.
Price still 4 x 40/1 available (needs 33/1 or less)
No key race: could be better (but a 3rd in that C1 hurdle at Aintree)
Conclusion:
This one is in my short list with three stars in my GN system (provided price is 33/1 or less at the off – this is important). The sort to fly under the radar and not be noticed like last years winner. Has the stats to win the GN this year and is a progressive runner (again) for sure. Very few negatives. Still amazing value at 40/1 but unlikley to be on the day (only is my short list if he is 33/1 or less at the off which i am sure he willl be).
Get on! (but you need a short list including others ofcourse).
Red you may have to wiat for the other two as i feel really bad with this bug.
#757
March 1st, 2012 13:55
Portrait King is not by Strong Gale. Portait King has Srong Gale 3 generations back on the dam side which in human terms means basically one of his great grandfathers on his mother’s side.
#758
March 1st, 2012 13:57
Someone was asking about a decent Cheltenham forum yesterday. I have been posting on Punter’s Lounge (www.punterslounge.com/forum) for about 10 years now and there are some knowledgable racing guys on there (nearly as knowledgable as on here!)
There is a seperate Cheltenham forum and an Aintree forum too. In the latter, you might like the “All Green Grand National” threads, that i write as a hobby.
I wouldnt have been able to do it without some of the information and opinions i pick up from here so thank you
#759
March 1st, 2012 13:58
Mike N
March 1st, 2012 09:03
TMC has divided opinions. Ur either with him or against him.
——————————-
I’m undecided! ha
#760
March 1st, 2012 14:01
cant dismiss according to pete lol my new other half has turned out to be the ultimate pin sticker !!!! about 7 from 8 since we met just on names ……….. the 1 …… Hectors choice at the weekend ….2nd !!!! im not a superstitious man but its just mad.
#761
March 1st, 2012 14:04
Cheers Systems re.According To Pete, put red pen away for now, quite compelling on the + side.
Got to go out now for rest of day,happy blogging guys.
#762
March 1st, 2012 14:06
Stayer check out killyglen for me re strong gale
#763
March 1st, 2012 14:11
just looked up according to pete on RP website and says foaled 20th April 2001 so technically on national day ………… still a 10 year old lolol ………… ok im clutching at straws !!
#764
March 1st, 2012 14:15
Mike,
Killyglen is similar to PK in that Strong Gale is 3 generations back, so again not by Strong Gale but related.
#765
March 1st, 2012 14:19
I’m beginning to think that I got Massinis Maguire mixed up with another Pipe horse when I thought he was for sale [I can't find the post about it]. Having heard that he used to be with Hobbs [very high class profile] had injury problems and is now with the Pipes makes me wonder again about his chances. They are very good with this sort of horse.
#766
March 1st, 2012 14:22
I think it was Swing Bill, Maureen
#767
March 1st, 2012 14:59
more worried about killyglen’s next appearance. all three potential outings he hasnt been entered for. nothing on any racing sites. might have to email the owners/trainers????
#768
March 1st, 2012 15:00
Red Alligator post 753
I know what you’re saying but to be fair to Nick he did post this on his website the same year…
“DON’T PUSH IT A SERIOUS GRAND NATIONAL PROSPECT
I suggested after his seasonal debut that DON’T PUSH IT (39) would do much better over a longer trip. He proved me right by staying on tremendously well in the valuable Servo Trophy over nearly three and a half miles at Cheltenham’s Open meeting. He fairly stormed home from the last but couldn’t quite get here, losing by a rapidly diminishing half length.
Don’t Push It was hunted around by Tony McCoy in last place for most of the race but moved up smoothly coming down the hill approaching the third last. Unfortunately he collided in mid air with Russian Trigger jumping that fence and was turned sideways on landing. He had to get going again and did so in style. But for the mishap he would surely have won.
I liked the way Don’t Push It navigated his way through traffic, recovered so well from being hampered and stayed on strongly in what was a stamina-sapping race. I can easily picture him doing very well in the Grand National after this performance. Indeed I’d say he’s the best Grand National prospect we’ve seen so far this season.
Don’t Push It certainly looks the best Grand National prospect Jonjo O’Neill has had since Clan Royal who ran second and third in the Aintree marathon. Clan Royal was given a very light campaign both seasons he placed in the race and was switched back to hurdles to protect his handicap mark, just as many of the top Irish candidates for the big race are. So I’d bet on Jonjo going the same route with Don’t Push It who actually showed smart form over timber last term when he ran second to Fair Along and Big Buck’s, two of the top staying hurdlers.”
#769
March 1st, 2012 15:03
You’re right, ewok! MM is one hell of a class horse. I don’t think he’s been unplaced in any completed start [maybe one], He’s been 3rd in an RSA, and won at Aintree [hurdle]. Won on mostly good ground but did win on soft at Limerick in his youth. Taken a lot of scalps over the years. Got a feeling Dr Massini’s don’t stay sound [hence his problems perhaps] and on the damside he’s got Supreme Leader, which means his jumping is a bit suspect but he should stay. Guaranteed a run but is 50/1 [does someone know something that I don't?]. I’ve only just realised he was in the race that the Chief won at Aintree where the leaders cut their own throats by setting off far to fast and Chiefy outstayed them [I'll never forget that day, because I worked late and didn't have to time to put my bet on, and I've always backed the Chief]. Makes me think of past RSA horses that have come back from injury and done well and, as I said, the Pipes are brilliant at that.
#770
March 1st, 2012 15:11
past RSA horses that have come back from injury and done well and, as I said, the Pipes are brilliant at that.
———————–
Like comply or die for instance!
#771
March 1st, 2012 15:27
Royal Athlete; know he fell in the RSA but he was the favourite I believe. And he certainly came back from injury.
#772
March 1st, 2012 15:36
I have to say i like horses in the national that have come back from injury , shows an robustness that is needed to get round such a course. my all time fave party politics had a tracheotmy i think i read???
#773
March 1st, 2012 15:38
Well to say I’m gutted/worried is an understatement after reading thid about WER.
Straight to GN now…..
WEST END ROCKER, who is as short as 14-1 with BetVictor for the John Smith’s Grand National, is likely to go straight to Aintree on April 14 without a prep race.
The Alan King-trained ten-year-old has entries for both Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday, but with the ground expected to be too quick for him at both tracks he is likely to head to Aintree next.
King said: “Newbury is definitely out and while I would love to run him in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which has always been the target, I could not risk him on fast ground.
“We will probably declare and see how the ground rides on Town Moor tomorrow, but in all probability it will be Aintree next stop.
“There is nowhere else we can go. He does not like Cheltenham, so there is no point going to the festival and I couldn’t possibly run him over two and a half miles.”
West End Rocker was last seen when winning the Becher but King has no worries about the fact that he will go to Aintree having not run for more than four months.
“He is not a horse who has to have soft ground, but he would not want it too quick and I fear the ground has scuppered us for a prep race. However, he goes well fresh so I wouldn’t be too worried.”
#774
March 1st, 2012 15:41
Grimthorpe Chase Doncaster Saturday over 3m 2f
entered (Good ground so far)
Junior!
WER
Ballabriggs
Anyone know the plans for these three? The race will tell us a great deal if all three run. If Junior wins his price will drop drop drop (but would be happy with 1/2 or 3rd – the sole aim in the GN but he does need that place!!). WER does not need a 1/2/3 having already won this season and Balla needs a 1/2/3.
#775
March 1st, 2012 15:42
He has enough in his favour to offset any concerns about a longer thanusual lay-off. The last line in the key.
#776
March 1st, 2012 15:42
That was in reply to matriarch
#777
March 1st, 2012 15:43
Missed post 772 WER will miss if too Good. Looks like one for Junior to mop up (if he runs)!
#778
March 1st, 2012 15:44
I take it WER will miss the “50 day stat” if he does not run again before GN??
#779
March 1st, 2012 15:44
ballabriggs also entered at kelso on saturday where he ran in his prep last year which i read somewhere is the more likely .
#780
March 1st, 2012 15:50
dragonman; I was the only person in the country that didn’t back im that day, because I knew he had a breathing problem. Didn’t realise till after the race that he’d been tubed.
#781
March 1st, 2012 15:52
Systems, yes. He hasn’t ran since Dec so a 4 month days since last run stat to over come.
Hasn’t the 49 day stat been broken just three times in last 30 yrs or something….I’m sure this has been mentioned on previous posts?? Anyone?? Thanx.
On Balla, I read McCain Jr fancied Kelso over Donny.
#782
March 1st, 2012 16:36
Guys,
Please bring this thread to a close and please read the info on the new thread regarding posting problems and the new forum
Thanks
Darren
#783
March 1st, 2012 16:38
Grimthorpe Chase Doncaster
So WER and Ballabriggs chicken out leaving Junior to give us that win we have been waiting for (but i would be happy with a place if given an easy ride). If he does run that 14/1 will look very very attractive after the race.
Now if the Niche wins on Saturday and he could and should hes only shown us he’s still fit to win a “veterans race” so we will be none the wiser.
#784
March 1st, 2012 20:37
#707 CRISP73, if I gave you £100 now would you run out and put it all on RARE BOB I doubt it,for RARE BOB to take any part in the 2012GN it would have to change its name to PEGASUS and act like it.
#785
March 3rd, 2012 16:22
Just to say we’ve had incredible voting numbers for the first two stages of the Grand National Vote and we’ve extended the closing deadline for Stage 3 of the vote to next Sunday night at midnight (11 March) as think many of us have been focusing on many other factors and therefore need more time
So..in the words of Brucie..Get Voting!!!!
#786
March 3rd, 2012 16:23
The PREFECT GN prep run from Niche today Graham
Well done Niche, Graham, and all
Onwards and upwards for Aintree!!
#787
March 4th, 2012 09:59
I disagree with Niche having a good run! Never looked that comfy, was pushed along a long way out under top jocky, suspect jumping ohhhhhh a cross for me, that should have been an easy win….
#788
March 5th, 2012 16:59
HELLO ALL,
Just a small point to come out of the Veterans race on Saturday,
The race on saturday was run two seconds faster then The Hennessy last November which Carruthers won on the same going but The Niche carried 22lbs more then Carruthers and the run has been rated by Timeform as The Niche’s joint best ever run.
I for one can’t wait for Aintree now, and as Paul Nicholls said on Saturday he is going there a better horse then last year carrying 8lbs less.
he is an outstanding each way chance for this years race.
#789
March 5th, 2012 22:06
Just saw this post on Betfair Forum re National stats and was astounded !! Now I certainly dont claim any of these claims are true nor am I claiming credit for info if it is true , but if it is , quite astounding and some stuff that I never knew ! I decided to show them to the most knowledgable people I know re the National so have alook , Any one know if the stats are true ???
NO GRAND NATIONAL WINNER SINCE BINDAREE 2002 , HAS GONE ONTO WIN ANOTHER RACE UNDER RULES .
( Nigel T D did get 2 winners in Handicaps though Earth Summit – Beecher & Bindaree -Welsh National )
AND ALL THE HORSES THAT FINISHED 2ND IN THE NATIONAL SINCE 2002 , ONLY ROYAL AUCLAIR WON A RACE – 2 HUNTER CHASES 4 YEARS LATER .
So hows about that , now if true Im worried about Ballabriggs NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!
#790
March 6th, 2012 12:37
Each to their own badboy.
On the contrary Niche looked to me cruising and like 5th gear still in the bag for Aintree and untapped.
Great run Graham
Where have all the posters gone – on the forum – if so are we gonna lose the blog posts??
#791
March 7th, 2012 18:41
Just had e/w tickle on Killyglen 33/1 (got to be in the first 4 surely). Had another tickle on Roulez Cool 40/1, dark horse for me. Will look nearer the time for another runner I fancy but thats it so far. What’s peoples thoughts on Roulez cool??
#792
March 8th, 2012 22:45
Where has everyone gone ?? I just posted on new forum as well its like a ghost town !
#793
March 11th, 2012 14:27
Hey JJF
Exactly. Don’t know if it has been all the technical problems or the new forum giving a feeling of divided attentions and not knowing where to post to feel part of the action. Admin Darren thanks for all your great work but I do think that maybe the new forum should have waited til the new season.
Anyhoo
onwards and upwards!
Last day of votes for the current stage – could you get yours up today JJF please and I will too
Let’s get it up to 20 voters
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