Grand National 2012: Countdown To April!
Posted on December 15th, 2011 in Uncategorized
Hi everyone,
Please can we make this the main thread for all your comments, suggestions and trends for the Grand National 2012.
Some new names have sprung up over the last few weeks as contenders for the Grand National in the likes of Galaxy Rock, Shakalakaboomboom and Planet Of Sound but the horses with the strongest market support continue to be Beshabar, Becher Chase winner West End Rocker and David Pipe’s Kim Muir winner from last season, Junior.
Thanks to everyone who has contributed recently and we would love to continue hearing your thoughts on what might win the Grand National 2012
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This post has 595 comments
#1
December 15th, 2011 20:19
Would be interested to know what everyone’s take is on the number of entries you think we will have for 2012.
Now the minimum OR permitted has risen to 120 do you think we will see the entries struggle to reach say 80?
Looking at the current OR’s you have to say that most of the 160 and above rated chasers won’t be making an appearance with a few notable exceptions including two winners, so the majority of the entries will come from the 150′s & 140′s horses. That looks good on paper in terms of quality.
However, do you think we will see a paucity of 120′s rated horses and even some 130′s with connections believing they won’t get a run? I hope not. If this happens then with injury, changes in plan and even cold feet there is the very real possibility we could end up with less than 40 runners.
Having quality horses being entered for the National is, on the face of it, a good thing but with that comes a caveat. Are owners less likely to risk a quality horse? Why risk a horse for one big day at the expense of potentially several?
And finally there is an unpalatable adjunct to the above; we could conceivably see JP, Hemmings, Wylie and Gigginstown start to take over this race as they can afford that risk.
Would like to hear what your opinions are.
#2
December 15th, 2011 21:39
There were 102 entries last year. There were no 6 year olds that I can spot. The bottom weight (Regal Heights)had an OR of 123, at the time, as I recall.
I would guess that a few entries would have failed the “first four” qualification – Quolibet for one.
Overall, I would be surprised if the new conditions have a material impact on numbers of entries. The prize money and entry fees are a different matter.Does anyone know when these will be announced?
#3
December 15th, 2011 21:59
Well, Ballvesey is the obvious 120′s horse I was thinking of. Has run creditably over the fences twice and is from the family of both West Tip and Royal Athlete.
However, will connections even bother entering him and is there any point?
There were 150 entries in 2008, 123 in 2009, 112 for 2010. This went down to 102 in 2011.
Will connections/trainers see that 138 was the cut off last year and start planning alternatives instead if a horse falls below that?
I see Any Currency’s OR has now gone down to 133. Based on previous years he needs to win a race and win one soon but I’m not so certain he does have to. With the fall in entries I think there is a real posibility he could get in off his current mark.
We shall see but the trend of falling entry numbers in plain and for all to see.
#4
December 15th, 2011 22:41
As things stand we could see the following entered and without Phil Smith’s feckless tinkering the weights would be,
What A Friend 11-10
Midnight Chase 11-2
Neptune Collonges 11-2
Ballabriggs 11-1
Don’t Push It 11-1
Planet Of Sound 11-0
Alfa Beat 10-13
Benny Be Good 10-12
Hey Big Spender 10-11
Uncle Junior 10-11
Synchronised 10-10
Deep Purple 10-9
Scotsirish 10-8
Carruthers 10-7
I’msingingtheblues 10-7
Bostons Angel 10-7
Mossey Joe 10-6
Rare Bob 10-6
Master Of The Hall 10-5
Beshabar 10-5
Chicago Grey 10-5
Aiteen Thirtythree 10-5
The Minack 10-5
Fair Along 10-5
Blazing Bailey 10-5
Oscar Time 10-5
West End Rocker 10-4
Knockara Beau 10-3
Always Right 10-3
Sa Suffit 10-3
Wymott 10-3
Tamarinbleu 10-2
Cappa Bleu 10-2
Crescent Island 10-2
Whatuthink 10-2
Holmwood Legend 10-2
Notre Pere 10-2
Galaxy Rock 10-2
Coolcashin 10-0
Fistral Beach 10-0
Organisedconfusion 10-0
Skippers Brig 10-0
Calgary Bay 10-0
Arbor Supreme 10-0
Ad Idem 9-13
Shakalakaboomboom 9-13
Finger On The Pulse 9-13
Exmoor Ranger 9-13
Vic Venturi 9-13
Prince De Beauchene 9-12
Western Charmer 9-12
Quiscover Fontaine 9-12
Razor Royale 9-12
Sunnyhillboy 9-11
Head Of The Posse 9-11
Killyglen 9-11
Stewarts House 9-11
Niche Market 9-11
Chief Dan George 9-11
Swing Bill 9-10
Becauseicouldntsee 9-10
Apt Approach 9-9
Tharawaat 9-9
Lenabane 9-9
Fiendish Flame 9-9
Gullible Gordon 9-9
Ouzbeck 9-9
Meanus Dandy 9-9
Sonny Mullen 9-9
Gone To Lunch 9-9
Below this you find the likes of Ballyvesey, Any Currency, The Holinwell, Merigo and Triggerman.
#5
December 15th, 2011 23:46
Off those weights – and they will be more compressed surely – Junior would be 10’8!
#6
December 15th, 2011 23:46
If you’re weights are correct ,7, then the weight will rise by 8 pounds but more likely 9 pounds on race day to leave either midnight chase or Ballabriggs top weight, as What A Friend in my opinion will not be aimed at the national this year.
#7
December 16th, 2011 03:27
Think top of the weights will be 160 or less therefore Junior would be 11’3 or higher
#8
December 16th, 2011 03:29
Also if What A Friend ran I would be astonished – he hated it last year
#9
December 16th, 2011 08:23
Nicholls has said what a friend won’t run, only ran him last year coz he was so well in on official figures.
#10
December 16th, 2011 08:56
Tidal Bay may end up as top weight – Paul Nicholls has flagged this as being his target. Also, Donald McCain has mention the GN as a possible for Weird Al on at least two occasions.
It is true that entries have fallen in the last 4 years although 2008 was a peak year and 2007 had 119 entries.
We have to go back to 1999 for the last time that less than 40 ran.
It may be that the compression of the weights and the size of the prize is encouraging more good class runners and pushing the cut-off up. The fact that we are debating whether the race will “fill” indicates the uncertainties which may encourage owners of more lowly rated horses to enter. There is also the possibility that bouts of illness or a very wet spring may increase the numbers falling out at the forfeit stages.
Owners will not want to hold back from entering and then find that they could have got in. If they are balloted out, they get their money back.
#11
December 16th, 2011 09:01
Correction – 39 ran in 2004, when Tyneandthyneagain withdrew just before the start.
#12
December 16th, 2011 17:24
Rises of winners during Phil handicapper’s time
(was his first ’99 or ’00?)
Bobbyjo 10-0/OR142 – won by 10 lengths
following year 11-6/OR147
Papillon 10-12/OR139 – 1.25 lengths
11-5/OR148
Bindaree 10-4/OR136 – 1.75 lengths
10-11/OR143
Monty’s Pass 10-7/OR139 – 12 lengths
11-10/OR153
Amberleigh House 10-10/OR139 – 3 lengths
11-3/OR146
Hedgehunter 11-1/OR144 – 14 lengths
11-12/OR156
Numbersixvalverde 10-8/OR138 – 6 lengths
11-3/OR149
Comply Or Die 10-9/OR139 – 4 lengths
11-6/OR154
Mon Mome 11-0/OR148 – 12 lengths
11-7/OR155
Dont Push It 11-5/OR153 – 5 lengths
11-10/OR160
Ballabriggs 11-0/OR150 – 2.25 lengths
?????
Average rise is about 9lbs.
Ballabriggs 11-10/OR159? Will Ballabriggs be top weight?
#13
December 16th, 2011 23:26
If it was next Saturday I would guess –
11.10 Ballabriggs 160
11.09 Tidal Bay
11.09 Neptune Collonges
11.09 Midnight Chase
11.08 Planet Of Sound
11.08 Don’t Push It
11.07 Alfa Beat
11.05 Synchronised 155
11.04 Deep Purple 154
11.03 Junior 153
11.00/11.03 Oscar Time
11.01 Rare Bob 151
11.00 Beshabar/Chicago/ 150
10.13/11.02 West End Rocker
10.12 Always Right 148
10.08 ShakaBB 144
10.07 Prince De Beauchene 143
10.06 Niche Market 142
#14
December 17th, 2011 16:50
Not too bad a return from Mon Mome over hurdles, heavy ground, and too short a trip. Came 5th, way behind leader, but ahead of a few much younger types. Plugged on fairly well
#15
December 17th, 2011 18:32
Yeah, worth keeping Mon Mome in mind.
Wymott didnt look happy at all today. The ground shouldnt have been a problem.
The Minack looked good and has a good staying pedigree (Roselier and Ebony Jane). He will be aimed at the Welsh National apparently but Nicholls likes a “bulk” Aintree National entry so it would surprise me if he entered that one.
#16
December 18th, 2011 06:30
Last 10 years – OR and Weight range.
2011 – 160 – 138, 11.10 – 10.02
2010 – 158 – 139, 11.10 – 10.05
2009 – 158 – 139, 11.10 – 10.05
2008 – 156 – 137, 11.12 – 10.07
2007 – 158 – 134, 11.12 – 10.02
2006 – 156 – 134, 11.12 – 10.04
2005 – 155 – 134, 11.12 – 10.05
2004 – 155 – 129, 11.12 – 10.00
2003 – 158 – 132, 11.12 – 10.00
2002 – 158 – 132, 11.12 – 10.00
#17
December 18th, 2011 15:55
Thought that I bring forth our table for easy reference (from early thoughts thread).
Miinnehoma
6pts Oscar Time, 5pts Carruthers, 4pts West End Rocker, 3pts Sychronised, 2pts Always Right, 1pt Baby Run.
Speedyseagull
6pts Beshabar, 5pts Any Currency, 4pts Junior, 3pts Sunnyhill Boy, 2pts Always Right, 1pt Chicago Grey.
Galileo
6pts Junior, 5pts Alpha Beat, 4pts Beshabar, 3pts Any Currency, 2pts Always Right, 1pt West End Rocker.
Aldaniti&Spartan Missile
6pts Planet Of Sound, 5pts Don’t Push It, 4pts West End Rocker, 3pts Niche Market, 2pts Beshabar, 1pt Alpha Beat.
Matriarch
6pts Beshabar, 5pts West End Rocker, 4pts Don’t Push It, 3pts Niche Market, 2pts Any Currency, 1pt Killglen.
Seven Towers
6pts Always Right, 5pts Poker De Sivola, 4pts Beshabar, 3pts Le Beau Bai, 2pts Oscar Time, 1pt Giles Cross.
Crisp73
6pts Sychronised, 5pts West End Rocker, 4pts Ballabriggs, 3pts Prince De Beauchene, 2pts Junior, 1pt Don’t Push It.
Rhino (* NEW POST)
6pt Knockera Beau, 5pts Western Charmer, 4pts Galaxy Rock, 3pts Oscar Time, 2pts The Midnight Club, 1pt Becauseicouldntsee.
Irish Raider
6pts Always Right, 5pts Alpha Beat, 4pts West End Rocker, 3pts Shakalakaboomboom, 2pts Planet Of Sound, 1pt State Of Play.
#18
December 18th, 2011 16:03
Table updated
23 West End Rocker (6 votes)
22 Beshabar (5 votes/2 NAPS)
18 Always Right (5 votes/2 NAPS)
12 Junior (3 votes/1 NAP)
11 Alpha Beat (3 votes)
11 Oscar Time (3 votes/1 NAP)
10 Any Currency (3 votes)
10 Don’t Push It (3 votes)
9 Synchronised (2 votes/1 NAP)
8 Planet Of Sound (2 votes/1 NAP)
6 Knockera Beau (1 vote/1 NAP)
6 Niche Market (2 votes)
5 Carruthers (1 vote)
5 Poker De Sivola (1 vote)
5 Western Charmer (1 vote)
4 Ballabriggs (1 vote)
4 Galaxy Rock (1 vote)
3 Sunnyhill Boy (1 vote)
3 Le Beau Bai (1 vote)
3 Prince De Beauchene (1 vote)
3 Shakalakaboomboom (1 vote)
2 The Midnight Club (1 vote)
1 Chicago Grey (1 vote)
1 Baby Run (1 vote)
1 Killyglen (1 vote)
1 Giles Cross (1 vote)
1 State of Play (1 vote)
1 Becauseicouldntsee (1 vote)
#19
December 18th, 2011 18:15
Low DP since 1969 -
DP 4 – 2/42 winners – 1975 L’Escargot, 2009 Mon Mome.
Always Right has DP 4 – slight worry.
DP 6 – 1/42 winners – 2001 Red Marauder.
This year ?
DP 8 – 4/42 winners – 1971 Specify, 1980 Ben Nevis, 1983 Corbiere, 1990 Mr Frisk.
Chicago Grey has DP 8 – might be due one.
DP 10 – 8/42 winners – 1969 Highland Wedding, 1970, Gay Trip, 1972 Well To Do, 1978 Lucius, 1988 Rhyme n Reason, 2002 Bindaree, 2006 Numbersixvalverde, 2011 Ballabriggs.
West End Rocker has DP 10 – Two in a row, why not (‘69/’70).
Not sure if the DP matters as long as the DI & CD are good.
#20
December 18th, 2011 19:22
Miinnehoma what about Royal Athlete whose dosage profile is zero. Highest in the period you mentioned is 28. To go higher you have to look at 1963 at least.
#21
December 18th, 2011 19:35
When I class them in my table, which I’ll be doing when we know the official entries
, I go by their dosage index (DI ) and centre of distribution (CD ) first. So I’d say yes their DI and CD are more important than their dosage profile. However I must stress that dosage is only an indicator to how far a horse gets by their bloodlines, it is not a rating like you use in racing post or timeform. I also think you should look at their practical form at long distances.
Now every entry must have achieved a fourth place or better over 3 miles or further in a chase. So would this make it harder or easier for us?
#22
December 18th, 2011 20:13
Yes ASM, didn’t like to mention RA with his zero. I’m just looking for another angle. Not sure really if any of it matters but I see patterns in all the stats and even though we know Always Right can get 4 mls. on dry tyres his DP 4 is very odd. So is Junior’s 32 and Synchronised’s 38. Yet I like Chicago Grey’s 8 – over due one I think. If he runs well in the Welsh Nat. he would be on the hot list again.
#23
December 18th, 2011 23:53
I notice that a lot of dosage-weak steeplechasers are French-bred (especially from the AQPS lines) or German-bred. Is this just an artefact of the dosage system, which was originally devised for American dirt racing?
#24
December 19th, 2011 11:57
Hope to post my points over christmas after Welsh National.
#25
December 19th, 2011 13:14
Nicholls wants to enter The Minack in the Grand National but said he needs to speak to the owners forst. Given that the owners entered the ill-equipped TheTotherOne last year, that should be a formality.
#26
December 19th, 2011 13:43
hi merry christmas everyone,SEVEN TOWERS in post 452 you say ALPHA BEAT ticks all the right boxes but doesn’t make your TOP 6 ,do you think we look to much in to STATS and DP,DI,CD. STATS can be made to look anything you want,FORM and STAMINA should take more preference,doesn’t have to be the greatest form but more often than not the GN WINNER has run in TOP 3M+ CHASERS.
#27
December 19th, 2011 19:12
Always Right is popular. Shame hes going to Ayr instead lol.
#28
December 19th, 2011 22:55
Do we know which Gigginstown horses are definites? I think we will see them target this race in a big way sooner rather than later.
I know THARAWAAT has already been confirmed as a definite entry by Elliott. Other than him I am in the dark. Haven’t heard what the plan is with BEAUTIFUL SOUND.
Probably too soon for MAGNANIMITY but he looks an ideal candidate for the future given he is so closely related to Amberleigh House.
I’ve had to have a few quid on Western Charmer today after his hurdle performance, which I thought was very encouraging.
Did a bit of delving beforehand and the fact that he is from the family of King Harald, a four mile winner himself, kind of sealed it for me. He’s also related to Vamizi who has run well over 31f. That confirms to me that his run at Fairyhouse was no fluke and stamina is intrinsic within the whole family thanks mainly to the influence of Gala Perfromance (West Tip, Monksfield and Greasepaint).
#29
December 19th, 2011 23:26
POST 84
Billymag
September 21st, 2011 16:38
Gordon Elliott’s comments
BEAUTIFUL SOUND “His big target this season is the Grand National. He stays well and handles most types of ground and I think he is a well handicapped horse who is capable of winning a big pot this season. He is a lovely horse”
CHICAGO GREY “His target is the Grand National and, in all likelihood, he will run in the Becher Chase at Aintree in early December”
JESSIES DREAM “We wont be over racing him before Christmas and then we will enter him in races like the Gold Cup and Grand National”
Alan King’s comments
WEST END ROCKER “We have hobdayed him during the summer and he will be aimed at the Becher Chase, which will give us an indication over whether to target him at the Grand National again. He appeared to love it last time until being brought down at Bechers first time”
David Pipe’s comments
FAASEL “I would imagine he will follow a similar programme and we will probably give him an entry in the Grand National. He does seem to go well fresh”
JUNIOR “The Grand National is his target and he will be having a quiet season in the meantime. We have the option of running him over hurdles”
#30
December 20th, 2011 00:29
Sporting Life -
Becauseicouldntsee will aim to go one better in this year’s Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on December 27.
His ultimate destination is AINTREE for the GRAND NATIONAL in which he was quietly fancied last season only to fall at the second.
#31
December 20th, 2011 03:41
Fair Along’s price is down to 46 with Betfair. His Hennessy 3rd was amazing, led over the first then last over the second and for most of the race and then came with a wet sail.
If Giles Cross or Any Currency or Le Beau Bai wins the Welsh Nat. then they will match all the 31st Dec. stats for GN. Two of them would need a very wet April to have a chance.
Strange that Le Beau Bai is not in the GN betting since his trainer said last Jan. –
“(Part-owner) Lord Daresbury is very keen for Le Beau Bai to be entered in this year’s (2011) Grand National. The horse is very short on experience but he is the sort that would jump around there. For all he is only little, he is very careful and clever as a cat”.
#32
December 20th, 2011 09:01
Giles Cross is my fancy for the Welsh as long as the usual mud is flying.
#33
December 20th, 2011 21:11
Can you give me your best stats in order to help me build my spreadsheet?! Ideally these will be since 2002.
As far as I can see the best are thus
10+ Chase Runs (10/10 although I believe this could read 20/20 if going back further).
Have won over 24f (10/10)
Won/placed over 3.5+ (8/10)
Have won/placed in a chase with 17+ runners (10/10)
Have won or been placed in 4+ races going left handed (8/10). This can be problematic with Irish runners given that there are more right handed courses than left.
Won a handicap chase (9/10).
2+ wins over 3m+ (8/10)
Two or less career falls/UR’s to their name (10/10) and of these Numbersixvalverde was the only one to have never come down or unshipped.
#34
December 21st, 2011 02:47
“Have won or been placed in 4+ races going left handed (8/10).”
Interesting new angle and good point about Irish horses – still need to have some left-handed form to be worthy of a good wager, but not essential if have Irish National form and on a good weight with a nice pedigree
#35
December 21st, 2011 08:11
Seven Towers I think these could be included too:
SR in chases of 40% plus (1/2/3 in all chase runs) – I think this is a 20/20 stat
Have won a race worth at least 17k which I think is also a 20/20 stat.
#36
December 21st, 2011 18:21
Further to sevenTowers post 28 these are the Irish runners that I have info on which features in “Talking Irish Horses” by Ray Rose and Timmy Donovan, which is compiled after interviews with the relevant trainers, hope this is of some use I know that some aren’t gigginstown horses but thought id include for info purposes
Alfa Beat “He will have one or two prep races before his main aim this season which will be to with the English Grand National. He now has no ground worries and has to be fancied to run a big race at Aintree”
In Compliance “If he appears this season he will run again in the Grand National at Aintree. He was unlucky in the National as he was interfered with and would have finished closer to Ballabriggs.”
MAGNANIMITY “He is a nice horse who might make into a Gold Cup horse”
SIEGEMASTER”This season his main target will be the Grand National. He will have the usual couple of prep races and Dessie will be keen to keep him at his current handicap mark as he prepares Siegemaster for the big race”
Vic Venturi “Will be back in October and with all going well he will head back for the National 2012″
Saddlers Storm”He has had a rest and the break will have freshened him up and so it is hoped that he will be good enough to run again in the National at Fairyhouse in 2012. If he returns to form and his handicap mark goes up he might have a go at the English National”
#37
December 21st, 2011 19:26
Thanks for the info and new stats.
Hedgehunter hadn’t won left handed but had been placed a few times most notably in the Hennessy & Welsh National prior to victory. Numbersix had won once going left handed.
Dessie Hughes could have quite a few at this rate none of which can be discounted confidently.
#38
December 21st, 2011 20:10
As a follow on I would be really interested in how you sort out your Irish “wheat from chaff”. What stats do you use for them?
#39
December 21st, 2011 21:23
Just to clarify the Grand National Top six Round 1 ends on “Part 1 to close at midnight Jan 3rd”. There was no desent at the time to this suggestion which allows new year races to be taken into account.
We still need to fix dates for Round 2/3 etc -any suggestion? (obviously Roind 2 starts Jan 4th but ends ??).
#40
December 22nd, 2011 09:34
Interesting quotes from ireland there – Dessie Hughes could be running 4 then! Western Charmenr, Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi and Siegemaster.
I dont recall In Compliance being particularly unlucky last year but I could be wrong….
#41
December 22nd, 2011 10:20
Not looking good for Beshabar now….http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/tim-vaughan-grand-national-national-fancy-beshabar-could-be-out-for-season/965867/
#42
December 22nd, 2011 13:10
I didn’t like the situation when Graham said he was reported lame after the Hennessy. However at the time I thought it was just a minor setback. This was why he scored two on my six.
#43
December 22nd, 2011 13:50
Sad news on Beshabar.
I know there are a few keen on Any Curreny (myself included) just read the following on ATR website
“Cracking run at Sandown, travelled and jumped well and had a good blow turning in. He’s been off for a long time and I’d expect him to come on from that. I just hope he gets into the Welsh National. He stays really well as he showed over four miles at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010. He’d have been closer than the four lengths he was beaten but for a mistake two out. He’ll love heavy ground at Chepstow and would have 10st. He’d been off with a leg since he was second to Midnight Chase. If he doesn’t get into the Welsh National he’ll run in the three mile two handicap at Cheltenham. I hope to get him to the Grand National.”
Hopefully he will get his win and then should get into the National and hit a few more stats!
#44
December 22nd, 2011 15:28
Beshabar had a tough few races in the lead up to this injury, thought it would be something that would take a while to get over, but he has time on his side, so maybe its for the best to get a rest this yr and he can comeback as strong next.
Any Currency is one I’ve also kept a keen eye on, hope he gets in the welsh national but it looks a very tough competitive race with a few I really like in the mud and he is in a dodgey position where he needs to go up in the ORs to get in the GN,… but he is only 8 so always next yr again.
So, I assume admin is on an extended holiday in the south pacific
so lets discuss the Welsh National quick on the other new thread ‘dec n jan’ ???
All I can fathom is its a really tastey christmas pickle with alot of good ingredients
#45
December 22nd, 2011 22:40
Winning the Scottish National seems to put a jinx on horses these days.
#46
December 23rd, 2011 08:42
Interesting that James reveley has jumped off diamond Harry in king George to go to Wetherby, I’m assuming he’s going there to ride Always Right, can’t imagine he has ridden in too many king georges in past.
#47
December 24th, 2011 21:36
Interesting that not one Bookie, including Betfair, has odds for Mon Mome. I’m aware that we can get them added to Betfair but I am suprised that it has not been done already.
Does anyone know if Venetia has ruled him out of Aintree?
#48
December 24th, 2011 23:01
Mon mome back to a similar mark to when it won, interesting
#49
December 27th, 2011 16:50
I was looking forward to seeing Mon Mome run in the Welsh today but nevermind.
Cappa Bleu is firmly on my radar after staying on in 3rd. Would have liked better ground too.
#50
December 27th, 2011 16:53
Didnt look good for Any Currency. He needs to get his mark up from 133 somehow but if anything, his mark will be going south after today.
#51
December 27th, 2011 17:26
hi everyone, couldn’t agree more EWOK, but he’s not the only one, that performance from MERIGO was poor to say the least,even his his most staunch supporter would be hard pushed to put up a good case for him, his OR will be to low to get in now.ANYBODY got an alternative view.
#52
December 27th, 2011 17:44
Yeah agree about Merigo too.
Aintree on the agenda for Cappa Bleu. Interesting:
——————————
Trainer Evan Williams: “Paul [Moloney] said that Cappa Bleu hated the ground and under the circumstances he has run a terrific race. The Grand National springs to mind as an obvious target. He jumps and he stays and the Aintree ground will be more to his liking.”
#53
December 27th, 2011 21:10
Cappa Bleu hasnt had enough chase experience to win a national if the stats are anything to go by.
#54
December 27th, 2011 21:12
Nothing standing out so far over Christmas from the Rowland Merrick, Welsh National or the Paddy Power.
West end rocker, Giles cross and le beau bai crying out for a bottomless ground National. what chance of that on recent Nationals ?
You still need to look for a class animal for the race and nothing over Christmas has ticked that box for me.
#55
December 27th, 2011 22:47
your right there graham,nothing is shouting 2012 GN back me at the moment,we all know the top trainers are protecting there horses OR until the weights are revealed but sooner or later they will get a run out and the 2012 GN jigsaw will fall into place……………..I HOPE.
#56
December 28th, 2011 00:05
Would agree Graham. I really got convinced on West End Rocker in this yrs national and although brought down, ( also had silver by nature ) I am retistant to get carried away with a mud lover that had a good early season win n wet & heacy conditions, when the head says the last few yrs the weather has been getting warmer and the conditions to maybe suit the heavy weighted classy horses over 11 stone.
I may get blasted for saying it, but would it not be wiser to look at the national stats over say The last 5 yrs as so much has changed on the national course, since the red marauders triumph in the mud in 2001 ( can’t see their only being 4 finishers like that again ) their has been big changes fence wise as well as weather wise.
You could argue ( and we all like a good debate on this blog ) that we all expected snow or a cold blast this Xmas which never came , so maybe the weather will change for April, but if I was to predict on recent yrs it would be for an even dryer course this yr and sunshine on the day. Either way I want to keep the old biscuit tin full to nearer the big race and have no big bets until at least March ( like last yr the one person who probably won’t follow these wise words is myself !!)
#57
December 28th, 2011 12:07
usually the hennessy and welsh are won by unexposed horses but this year they have been won by horses coming back for a second shot from a much lower mark having lost their form . einer whether it’ll be the same in the national itself
#58
December 28th, 2011 12:08
* einer should be wonder (swype function on my phone playing games again)
#59
December 28th, 2011 12:51
I’m confused about the new eligibility rules for the Grand National 2012. As I understand it, a horse has to be 7 years old to take part.
Why then, has 6 yo Promising Anshan, been available to back at 999/1 on betfair, whereas another 6 yo Organisedconfusion is available to back at only 60.0. As I understand it OC wont be eligible for the race, yet the stable have nominated it as a spring target?? (Promising Anshan was this price before he fell yesterday, before anyone mentions that
Can anyone shed any light please?
#60
December 28th, 2011 13:02
I’m confused about the new eligibility rules for the Grand National 2012. As I understand it, a horse has to be 7 years old to take part.
Why then, has 6 yo Promising Anshan, been available to back at 999/1 on betfair, whereas another 6 yo Organisedconfusion is available to back at only 60.0. As I understand it OC wont be eligible for the race, yet the stable have nominated it as a spring target?? (Promising Anshan was this price before he fell yesterday, before anyone mentions that
Can anyone shed any light please?
#61
December 28th, 2011 15:55
ewok
both Promising Anshan & Organisedconfusion will be 7 on New Years Day, which is the official birthday for horses irrespective of their actual birthday – so both should be eligible for GN 2012
#62
December 28th, 2011 17:01
Thanks Pablo. That explains OC’s price but some poor layer has got the wrong end of the stick with PA i think! He was 999/1 even before he fell yesterday.
#63
December 28th, 2011 18:13
cracking win today from Synchronised
#64
December 28th, 2011 18:14
hip! hip!?
#65
December 28th, 2011 18:34
hooray!… backed Sync in the lexus and glad I went in with a lower offer of 75-1 when the 100s+ disappeared for the GN. However! JP is now entering him for the Gold Cup too!!!
RE age- I thought it was being raised next yr,…but that could just be because I moved on to calling next yr THIS Yr before their announcement!?! think Organisedconfusion could be taken on as our new team mascot
however backing 7yr olds to win the GN is not something I am going to take up in the new yr.
#66
December 28th, 2011 18:40
cant believe Becauseicouldntsee fell yesterday. Only good thing is he remains on OR 141 and has had his 10 chase starts. Probably needs to win a good hcap next time as he has only won one chase up to now and that was an egg and spoon one.
Hopefully he can pick something up after the weights are announced.
Not going to throw my ticket away just yet. lol
#67
December 28th, 2011 18:49
theres no way Synchronised can win the national now. He will be in the mid 160s, it was going to be hard enough on 155.
They should go for the gold cup then punchestown grade 1.
#68
December 28th, 2011 19:27
read above Mike,… gold cup is their plan.
Still, going to enjoy holding my ticket for a while too, my winnings today leave me in the clear with him regardless ;D
#69
December 28th, 2011 21:44
Agree with Mike N “theres no way Synchronised can win the national now”. Wonderful win today but with it has blown his chance of winning the GN in 2012. Likely to be top weight or near it??? And if hes in the Gold Cup even less chance i think should he run. Views?
Its does go to show however that it is possible to win with going just outside the best perfered by a runner as many GN winners have done (Sychronised did not need heavy to win today).
#70
December 28th, 2011 22:39
Just done a few sectional times looking at the Last Instalment race and the Synchronised race and obviously these are done with a stop watch as accurately as I can, but the first obvious thing to note is that the novice 3m was completed from the first jump to the line in 5.58 where as the Lexus was a couple of seconds slower 6.00.
The most impressive part of the lexus seems to be where the race hots up from the second last ditch to the second last jump where the lexus was run a full 3 seconds faster than the novice race. This seems to be where Synchronised excelled with a burst of pace that appeared to brake the other runners.
I read James Pymans piece in the RP today where if memory serves me he said that Synchronised’s finish in the Welsh National was one the fastest he has ever recorded in the race.
As a number have said on this site it has become more important than ever to have that burst of speed at the end and it appears Synchronised posses exactly that.
Unfortunately i think his task of winning the National if they decide to go for it has just got about 8-10lbs harder now.
#71
December 29th, 2011 01:16
From crisp -
stats for Grand National winners 31st December(mid season);
20/20 ran in 7 chases or more
20/20 ran in 3 handicap chases or more
20/20 won a race at 24f or more
20/20 won 1 of last 10 chases
19/20 won 17k or more chase – prize money seasonally adjusted
(Lord Gyllene)
18/20 won 3 or more chases
(Lord Gyllene, Hedgehunter)
19/19 chase win place strike rate(1st,2nd,3rd)
45% or more
18/19 top 3 in a C1 chase (Ballabriggs)
15/15 career win place strike rate (1st,2nd,3rd) 42% or more
#72
December 29th, 2011 02:23
Night guys PS just watched the Lexus and ON GOOD GROUND!!!! Synchronised was AMAZING – gosh that accelaration after the last fence…
Defo head and shoulders for me above the rest of the cast of 2012 and with 29 days after the Gold Cup I, for one, won’t be ‘relying/hoping’ he won’t run – I have got him whilst 25/1 (Paddy Power) remains.
#73
December 29th, 2011 08:21
Likely to be McCoys mounts now too Showlad. Will be favourite on the day if so.
#74
December 29th, 2011 15:15
Anyone got to hand the GN winners and their ‘falls’ record? Really like BecauseIcouldn’tsee – but ANOTHER fall..
#75
December 29th, 2011 15:22
hi gang,nice run fron SYNCHRONISED in the LEXUS but can’t have him for GN too much weight, plus extra 1M 4F to carry it, also pace will be fast. PS. what a shambles from BETFAIR, why not pay punters who had 29s before problem arose,that way it becomes a good PR exercise.
#76
December 29th, 2011 15:23
hi gang,nice run fron SYNCHRONISED in the LEXUS but can’t have him for GN too much weight, plus extra 1M 4F to carry it, also pace will be fast.
#77
December 29th, 2011 18:50
If only CAPPA BLEU didn’t have Strong Gale in him. He could’ve been a player. But another we can strike off the list with some confidence.
#78
December 29th, 2011 19:55
I know Strong Gale has a poor record in the National, but werent we saying the same about Presenting before last year’s race?
#79
December 29th, 2011 20:00
I think the Strong Gale stats go back a lot further than the Presenting ones. However, are they getting to be second and third generation, now, and could that make a difference?
#80
December 29th, 2011 21:34
Strong Gale was enough to do for Offshore Account, Hear The Echo, Darkness, Southern Vic, Joe Lively, Idle Talk, Fundamentalist, Shotgun Willy, Silver By Nature and Golden Kite as a damsire. Most of these mentioned did not have their races ended by falls/UR’s but instead conked out and didn’t get near a place. The 2009 race was all the evidence you need with many of those mentioned above still in contention three out and look where they all finished. If last year reaffirmed anything to me it is this, stamina is mainly derived from the dam and not the sire. Of course nothing is bred to stay four miles, they must be trained to do so but that must have something intrinsic within them that allows all the training to have an impact. Strong Gale certainly ain’t it!
#81
December 30th, 2011 13:10
Looking at the Crisp’s pre Jan 1st stats (post 71)i can only see a few (who are aat the top of the Team voting list) who currently look good with the possible right OR.
Anyone done a full study with these stats (or any others) yet and has a short list. Just working on mine and will post later along with my top six.
Some good runnesr with good stats clearly going to carry too much weight (like SYNCHRONISED if he’s entered now that is) – might just help Oscar Time a bit.
#82
December 30th, 2011 14:35
Oscar Time will still have to be adjusted by the English handicapper and then get his National weight on top of that again. He could go up by as much as 10lbs !!!!
Lots of good horses going to have to carry lumps of weight round Aintree in April.
#83
December 30th, 2011 16:24
hi graham,do you really feel that NICHE MARKET has a fighters chance in 2012 GN, looking at last years race he jumped great,was up with the pace but I just don’t think he saw the trip out,if he was going to win the GN last year was his year…you don’t get too many chances to win this UNIQUE race, when the moment arrives you have to take it……same goes for OSCAR TIME this year will be harder with carrying more weight.ANY VIEWS
#84
December 30th, 2011 16:56
Using Crisp stats – pre Jan 1st. Those with 2pts or more in team table who score 9pts from 9 (see post 71) – my own top six reflect this:
9/9 on Crisp Pre Jan 1st Stats.
West End Rocker
Always Right
Junior
Ballabriggs
Synchronised
Shakalakaboomboom
Dont Push It
Chicago Grey
Killyglen
Oscar Time has 8 (only two chase wins)
My slections where (and all at 25/1 or less with Betfred):
6pts Junior NAP
5pts West End Rocker
4pts Shakalakaboomboom
3pts Killyglen
2pts Always Right
1pt Chicago Grey
The bookies give nothing away on this race these days. Will reassess Oscar Time later but he needs another win and a winnablle weight which i doubt he will be allocated.
#85
December 30th, 2011 22:02
Ballabriggs gave Oscar 5 lbs and beat him 2 ¼ lengths so surely the diff. this year will be at least 7 lbs. His trainer said a few weeks ago that he will run in another hurdle and then back to the Bobbyjo chase. So he has only one chance of gaining his third chase win and I wouldn’t back him without it. Hedgehunter gained his third chase win in the same race – last prep before GN, I wonder will history be repeated.
#86
December 31st, 2011 00:33
Would love to hear from red rum (the poster) about his fancies – the more I look at it the more Planet Of Sound appeals but would like the red rum seal of approval for his stamina – for me his class is a given and weight immaterial
#87
December 31st, 2011 10:11
Galileo,
Do I think The Niche has a chance in the National ?
If you’re not in you can’t win !!
I think The Niche has proven himself around Aintree and we know he lights up with this particular course. We need to hold him up a bit more and save a bit for the end of the race. The Niche has been dropped 7lbs this season and has come second in a Becher on ground he hated, that gives him a chance in The National.
I think The Niche will always be in danger from a horse with a turn of foot. But apart from Sycronised, who will carry a lot of weight, I haven’t seen anything yet this season that stands out.
Every talked about horse has flopped so far and if you are looking for a national horse “pulled up” or “fell” isn’t a confidence enhancer.
Only time will tell, but it’s a great event to own a horse to be good enough to be part of it.
#88
December 31st, 2011 11:33
Pablo
From memory I think there have been four horses by Kayf Tara to have tried four miles plus. They are Alfie Sherrin, Kornati Kid, The Package and Tarateeno. Don’t quote me on this, I am only working on memory. All have failed nonetheless. I believe, and again don’t quote me, Dermatologiste is the Kayf Tara to have won over the furthest distance thus far in a Class 4 affair over 3m 6f. His dam is Poor Skin a mare I once fancied at long odds in the Scottish National but she ultimately unseated in that race.
Planet Of Sound therefore probably has a stout enough sire. His dam is by Dubassoff, the sire of past Grand National favourites Double Thriller and Double Silk (both fell) but more importantly National fourth but running on mare Dubacilla who was given far too much to do by her crap jockey.
Dubassoff was not a prolific sire but he did produce Dubious Jake who won two four milers in 1992 although the quality of these is questionable with Strong Gale producing a 10st runner up in one of these.
However, what I like most about Planet Of Sound is one generation back. It is the influence of Space King the sire of 1981 pillar to post Scottish National hero Astral Charmer (if you never saw this race you must watch it on Youtube). Space King is a very rare influence but a good one as has been seen in dual Scottish National runner up Gone To Lunch and to a lesser extent Pearlysteps.
My worry is the weight.
#89
December 31st, 2011 12:59
Have we agreed list closes tonight?!
well I was …
Systemsman set up the first top6 deadline this yr as Showlad wasn’t around, with deadline 3rd jan.
Then Showlad went and set another deadline on his return, the traditional one
Think we going to have to accept voters upto midnight 3 jan, as it was already out there and people could still be working to this schedule, or maybe theres noone out there
anyway I am going to get it in, undercooked maybe… today.
#90
December 31st, 2011 13:50
Happy New year in advance to all the team.
Remember this IS the year the Team will crack the Grand National – roll on 2012!!
“Have we agreed list closes tonight?!”
Yes midnight tonight (for Round 1)! This has been posted a few times now after the showlad amendment as the Welsh National was before Jan 1st.
#91
December 31st, 2011 13:52
Showlad my friend can you confirm dates for round 2 top six GN table tomorrow?
#92
December 31st, 2011 14:02
I’ve been thinking about some new bloods!
Planet Of Sound, Always Right and Deep Purple spring to mind as impressing this term.
Theres been alot of Kayf Tara horses I’ve liked recently, Carruthers came good, but for the GN I’m starting to worry others are right and his size is not going to help.
and he is related to Rhyme n Reason through his dam sire.
Not that things are bred for 4m4 but Kayf Taras don’t seem too strong and non of the above are on the dam sire front either and that does seem important I agree 7T.
On paper Always Right is the only one of this lot I should consider, no Kayf Tara
However, I still find myself drawn to the shock of the bunch Deep Purple another Kayf Tara who barely got going to when he ran last time! What did people make of that win,…. even the trainer was shocked!
Which leads me to my final point for now State of Play with no weight a better bet? anyone
#93
December 31st, 2011 14:08
Yes Systems, posted but noone else confirmed til now!
11 hrs t go.
#94
December 31st, 2011 15:31
Well least I’ve got little else to do then spend new yrs eve trying to sort this out!… got new yr sickness from the train, again!
…We have the same problem every yr,..
or like that little Beau a special case that is suprisingly young and been out of sorts.
those possibly weighted out of it appeal, those trying to get their OR up to get in appeal but often are just a distraction,… those in the middle seem sparce with issues, but mainly everything is too young or old
I could easily form a list of six out of those that have reliably run well here, won or placed but 11 or 12years old, done! …Only one will have less than 11st with a finish, bless him, still deserves a place. I think I am definately leaning to the old crew and few newbies will make my list here…
But, its the newbies and previous fallers/ BDs that are the real problem/interest as newbies usually WIN, we should have a new table and discussion for these ponies ONO at some point soon after this round, it would be most helpful to us to take out the ‘oldies- been there done that group’ thoughts please???
#95
December 31st, 2011 15:38
Hello my friends Systemsman and KJ
Round 2 of the Top 6 vote will open when the weights have been announced for the Grand National 2012 and will stay open for 1 week.
No point in having Round 2 at the entries announced stage as the weights come out only 2 weeks later and all could change with your picks if given too much weight or a horse you dismissed as you thought would get killer weight is treated lightly.
So round 2 when weights announced in mid-Feb (only 6 weeks away).
Finish deadline for vote 1 is tonight at 11.59pm (and 59 seconds ha ha).
Anyone who is away and was going to 3rd Jan deadline can of course post up by then.
I will do an analysis on Round 1 of the Top 6 Vote shortly after Jan 3rd in case there are any late voters
#96
December 31st, 2011 15:43
Me putting the jigsaw together today KJ too
#97
December 31st, 2011 16:06
I was looking for the original top6 posts/ votes this yr when I found this
#575
Seven Towers
December 10th, 2011 18:37The following have an Irish bred sire (not a good thing if trying to find the winner!)
Always Right
Ballyfitz
Galaxy Rock
Giles Cross
Junior
Oscar Time
Stewarts House
The Minack
Uncle Junior
now that is interesting!
Hey Showlad, glad you could join the party!
see above 
thanks for stepping in, up and sideways
hope you and a few of the crew got the time to comeback on a few of my rushed thoughts today
Anyone know if Midnight Club ok after that pile up the other day? he is still firmly on my peripheries…
#98
December 31st, 2011 16:14
#575
Seven Towers
December 10th, 2011 18:37The following have an Irish bred sire (not a good thing if trying to find the winner!)
What exactly is 7T meaning here – could take several different meanings form his words lol??
#99
December 31st, 2011 17:15
#87 thanks graham,point taken it must be a great buzz to have a horse good enough to run in GN….US mere mortals will never know,keep up the good work graham,thanks
#100
December 31st, 2011 17:32
#92
kj, I agree about Deep Purple. the manner of his victory at Sandown was impressive. He looked as though he could stay on a lot further.
#101
December 31st, 2011 17:39
#97
kj, The Midnight Club is declared to run in the 2.15 at Tramore tomorrow.
#102
December 31st, 2011 17:40
I don’t think Niche is without a chance again, as Graham says you gotta be in it to win it!
If luck is on your side and all the cards fall right for him well, you can’t rule him out of being thereabouts. All the best to him and Graham ofcourse!
ESB- see my silly psychic edge angle I tripped over as I wrote, just posted on votes page
well it has worked for me in the past, lucky lucky.
#103
December 31st, 2011 18:55
Hey I don’t want to get on James Reveleys case again, but I notice he fell at bechers in the becher this time. Has he completed the course on any horse yet?
He is Always Rights jockey and I certainly wouldn’t see that as a bonus at this early stage of his career, I know it was his first attempt but I’ll never forget the overwelming fear he felt with our rambo episode… nearly ready to post my top6
#104
December 31st, 2011 19:05
can I just say before you all go out…
***
***Happy New Year all blogsters here
have fun, take a brolly, don’t catch anything
stay fit and well for 2012, and lets hope our winning start to the season continues and we make more than a few quid with a 1,2,3,4 in the GN!…. I raise my glass
#105
December 31st, 2011 19:28
VOTE VOTE VOTE ALL on GN Votes thread – Round 1 closes midnight!!
#106
December 31st, 2011 19:35
Sorry is it just me – I don’t think James Reveley really takes to the GN course..Rambo’s run V poor imho..big minus for me with Always Right.
#107
December 31st, 2011 20:20
He was very young and under an awful lot of pressure that year, Showlad; also very much influenced by his mother who never liked the National in her training days, I believe. Anyways; Happy New Year to everyone; happy birthday to all the horses [et moi; I'm officially old tomorrow!]. Group hug!!! xxx
#108
December 31st, 2011 20:59
happy birthday for tmw Maureen
I know what you mean about master reveley, and the beeb doing that piece on him and rambo that yr did not help either.
But fact is I think he has yet to complete the course, maybe this horse can just carry him. It has to go down as a negative.
Have you got a new yrs top6 for us Mo? would like to know your current birthday thinking!
#109
December 31st, 2011 22:38
Totally confused about the race these days, kj. I’d think that West End Rocker is very sound, but his trainer isn’t a ‘National’ trainer. If I could have a birthday wish it would be for the ground to be soft and for Giles Cross to win. Fast becoming one of my favourite horses and so deserves to win something like the National. As for Synchronised; what a horse! Probably jumps better out of firmer ground as well? Keeping a bit more detatched from racing these days, so hope that, when the weights come out, I might be able to look at the race in the way I used to. It’s a cunning plan and it might just work!
#110
January 1st, 2012 14:29
Mon Mome up next…
#111
January 1st, 2012 14:46
A valiant effort from Mome Mome – wonderful to see
#112
January 1st, 2012 14:48
just turned on the tv to see some horses cross the line………..mon mome bloody hell!
#113
January 1st, 2012 14:53
Mon Mome staying on really well defying age and weight. Hello Bud’s retirement race?
#114
January 1st, 2012 14:58
Still no bookies offering any odds on Mon Mome for the big one…
Yes, i worry for Hello Bud. He only stayed at the front very briefly and just didn’t have the pace to stay there. Was impressed by The Sawyer staying on again – wonderful jumper! Would never get 4m4f in a horsebox though!
#115
January 1st, 2012 16:03
I didn’t see the race today, but having seen Buds last several races I would say he deserves a happy retirement.
#116
January 1st, 2012 17:04
Prices up for Mon Mome now, between 25 and 50-1
any news from Venetia?
I would guess after today this has got to be the target and why not, looked great today. So happy to see him back after all this time, serious care taken, well done to all his team.
#117
January 1st, 2012 17:43
Happy Birthday Maureen
#118
January 1st, 2012 18:16
PS All – is ASM Neil? (keep asking this, asked a few days ago lol and no-one answers)
#119
January 1st, 2012 19:17
nice run from MON MONE today but can’t have it for GN age is definitely against it,can’t remember last 12yr old to win national,probably before my time……………anyone got any news when JUNIOR or ALPHA BEAT are due out,think trainers are keeping their powder dry until the weights come out.
#120
January 1st, 2012 19:23
Mon Mome and Calgary Bay both have the National confirmed as their targets after today’s runs.
#121
January 1st, 2012 20:58
…. last 3 12 year olds were Amberleigh House, Royal Athlete, and Little Polveir, I believe.
#122
January 1st, 2012 21:31
#120
Ewok
January 1st, 2012 19:23
Mon Mome and Calgary Bay both have the National confirmed as their targets after today’s runs.
Can you post up a link Ewok thanks
#123
January 1st, 2012 22:52
Mr. Showlad, all back from their extended summer pastures green…….
ASM is the artist formally known as Neil
#124
January 1st, 2012 22:54
I’d give 12 yr olds a chance,… esp if they are classy former winners.
#125
January 1st, 2012 23:06
Showlad, this link covers both:
http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/Cheltenham-Racing-Champion-Court-win-Martin/story-14295396-detail/story.html
#126
January 2nd, 2012 00:09
Mon Mome jumped beautifully. Perhaps not likely to win the National again, but definate place claims; and whatever his age now he has had a a year out which must make a bit of a difference.
#127
January 2nd, 2012 02:16
TOP 10 with Betfair –
18 Junior
21 West End Rocker
22 Ballabriggs
22 Oscar Time
27 Synchronised
27 Always Right
27 Cappa Bleu
28 The Midnight Club
28 ShakalakaBB
36 Niche Market
#128
January 2nd, 2012 02:53
Thanks ESB
#129
January 2nd, 2012 02:55
kj
January 1st, 2012 22:52
Mr. Showlad, all back from their extended summer pastures green…….
ASM is the artist formally known as Neil
Christmas Gold Star KJ
Thanks!
Hey Howdy Neil – great to have you on board in 2012
#130
January 2nd, 2012 10:45
Hi team can anyone remember off top of head what the stat is for number of runs that season before 31st dec for previous winners. Many thanks
#131
January 2nd, 2012 11:36
Does anyone know if Evan Williams has said if Deep Purple is an intended runner in the National?
Also is there anything lurking in his profile/breeding that I’ve missed that would make him a big negative or indeed a positive?
I realise that he has only run in 1 handicap chase (but did win LTO and went up 6 lbs to 154) so could be well treated, and at 11 years old not the perfect age but certainly not enough to rule out.
#132
January 2nd, 2012 11:45
Just found this on sky sports website from 20th Dec 2011, so answered my own question!!!
“Deep Purple is set for a winter lay-off following his game effort under top weight in the London National at Sandown.
Trainer Evan Williams admitted being surprised at the 10-year-old’s performance in giving Do It For Dalkey 26lb and a three-length beating over three miles and five and a half furlongs.
“It was brilliant and completely out of the blue,” said the Llancarfan handler.
“In my heart of hearts I didn’t think he could stay that far. It was great, a bit unexpected but nice to see him back in the winner’s enclosure.
“There’s no point messing about with him in the depths of winter. We’ll see what happens when the better weather comes along and see where we go towards the spring.
“I really don’t know quite what to do with him. We entered him in the Grand National last year and I suppose we’ll have a look at it again, but how we set about getting there I don’t know.
Spectacular
“We might put him over hurdles for something different. There are plenty of places he can go. We’ll go quietly and see how we get on.”
#133
January 2nd, 2012 12:19
Prep runs of the last 22 GN winners from 1st Sept. – 31st Dec.
19/22 had 2 – 4 preps.
BB —–
DPI.- 423
M.M.- 218
COD.- 0P2
S.B.- 38
No6.- 84B
H.H.- 9240
A.H.- 342
M.P.- 13
Bin.- 7533
R.M.- 1455
Pap.- 87
B.J.- 580
E.S.- 551
L.G.- 231
R.Q.- F22
R.A.- —
Min.- —
P.P.- 22
S.G.- 3292
M.F.- 4133
L.P.- 1524
#134
January 2nd, 2012 12:32
#575
Seven Towers
December 10th, 2011 18:37The following have an Irish bred sire (not a good thing if trying to find the winner!)
What I meant by this is that there has been no winner with an Irish bred sire since year dot.
I only highlighted this last year because as stats go, it is quite revealing. I was just trying to point out that there are any number of stats that can be used but some are worthless, probably much like this one.
Presenting (GB), Old Vic (GB), Passing Sale (FR), Roselier (FR), Montelimar (USA), Clearly Bust (GB), Lafontaine (USA), Celtic Cone (GB), Gunner B (GB), Bustineto (GB), Ring The Bell (NZ), Crash Course (GB), Kambalda (GB), Broken Hearted (GB), Buckskin (FR) and the list goes on.
Some people on here use Pedigreequery to argue against the above but that site is a bit like wikipedia. It’s good to a point but not all the info is correct I’m afraid and to highlight this I always tell people to look at McKelvey on there and look at his damside which is completley wrong.
#135
January 2nd, 2012 14:21
Showlad-
Ha ha, you know I’m a sucker for gold stars
Billy/ Miine
I was thinking about runs before 31 dec stat and thinking several have not been out to my knowledge, or have only had one run- only half looked into it… so anyone made a list?
Evan Williams quote on Deep P made my lip curl!
“I really don’t know quite what to do with him. We entered him in the Grand National last year and I suppose we’ll have a look at it again, but how we set about getting there I don’t know.
Seven Towers- can I ask on behalf of the team, your opinion on Deep Purple breeding wise?
His unexpected long distance win was SO easy, although when I looked into it it was 10/15 secs slower than tip top performances at that distance, he looked like he could go much further.
#136
January 2nd, 2012 18:05
Thanks for prep run info miinie
#137
January 2nd, 2012 19:52
Halling hasn’t really had that many run over a “trip” before. In fact the only other Halling horse that I know to have run in excess of 3.5m is Constantius who didn’t stay.
Halling was himself by Diesis who is responsible for the enigmatic Flintoff, a dual placed horse over four miles.
The thing that helped Deep Purple stay the 3m 5f, in my opinion, is the influence of another USA bred horse Glenstal – his damsire. Glenstal had very few runners (literally less than a handful) that went over fences but he did have one, Commander Glen that won some tiny races over 3 miles.
Glenstal, however, can be found in NH Chase, Scottish National and Sandown Gold Cup winner Hot Weld also as a damsire.
Anyhow the form of the Sandown race is not exactly working out that well plus he hasn’t proved himself in a large runner field as yet.
#138
January 2nd, 2012 20:35
There is one horse, not even yet mentioned as a possible, that is beginning to intrigue me.
He’s run in 14 Class 1 chases having won two, has never run in a handicap let alone win one. At first glance he appears to be on a downward spiral but he probably won the most singlemost brutal Cheltenham Festival race I have seen in recent years in terms of unabated suicidal pace.
The handicap mark, as pointless as it has been thus far, is starting to drop and can only sink further after his latest effort and could conceivably be around 144 or even 140 come February.
The Cheltenham race has probably left its mark given that he hasn’t won since but I think the time may be arriving soon where we see COOLDINE in a handicap.
#139
January 2nd, 2012 20:57
Can I add my thanks for the info too miinne
We have 8 of the last 10 winners having run over hurdles during the victorious season too.
#140
January 2nd, 2012 22:06
I’m sure I’ve read somewhere that Mullins is considering cooldine for national, sorry can’t think where I’ve read/heard but it was prior to this national hunt season starting proper. Interesting comments 7T I’ll have a look through my records see if I can dig out the info.
#141
January 2nd, 2012 23:09
Does anyone know if Carruthers is going for the GN??
#142
January 3rd, 2012 00:14
CARRUTHERS -
After winning the Hennessy -
Carruthers is 50-1 with Coral for the Gold Cup, bigger than the 25-1 to 33-1 odds on offer for him for the Grand National,
but Bradstock warned the eight-year-old was “very unlikely” to be entered for the Aintree marathon.
After Welsh Nat. -
Carruthers will be given some time to recover after requiring some stitches following Tuesday’s Coral Welsh National.
“He got struck into very badly behind and he needed six or seven stitches in his back leg,” said Bradstock.
“He seems fine, but I don’t think that gluey ground helped in any case. Luckily he was pulled-up early.
“There’s not a lot of options for him at the moment – there’s the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January but that’s going to come too soon.
“He’s going to need a bit of TLC first anyway.”
Matriarch, I would say maybe the Aon chase, then the Gold Cup and you never know maybe the GN. He did win the Hennessy on GOOD ground and John was second to Ayala in ’63 – he might like to win it as an owner.
#143
January 3rd, 2012 00:28
Alas,I don’t the Noble Lord knows where his horse is running these days. One thing that has crossed my mind, though, is that I feel Nicky Henderson really wants the trainers championship this year, and Shakalaka…..might help him achieve that goal. Wouldn’t think of him as a National trainer usually.
#144
January 3rd, 2012 00:35
That’s a cracker – Bless him.
Racing Post -
Ballabriggs: could have his first run of the season at Kelso in March.
#145
January 3rd, 2012 00:41
Same race as last year? May try to get to that.
#146
January 3rd, 2012 00:57
Ballabriggs might end up with only 1 prep run – Aldaniti had only one prep which he won.
Sporting Life -
AIR FORCE ONE is to be campaigned in long-distance chases following his first win for more than three and a half years at Doncaster last week.
Can you believe it, this horse was on OR160 after his second in the Hennessy to Madison and is now on OR120 – only 10 yrs. old.
#147
January 3rd, 2012 01:24
Shakalakaboomboom -
He does tick all of crisp’s 1 yr before and 31st Dec stats but he is only 8 yrs old. He has only 2 runs @ 24f+ and 1 @ 25f+ 1 yr before (maybe no big deal). He has won a Pun. 25k hcap and recently a C1 20K Hcap but is that good enough compared to other 8 yr old GN winners.
From crisp – recent 8yr old GN winners -
’02 Bindaree –
5th Hennessy, 3rd Welsh National
’92 Party Politics –
2nd Hennessy, 2nd Welsh National
’83 Corbiere –
5th Hennessy, won Welsh National
’73 Red Rum –
won four 3mile chases in GN winning season
’70 Gay Trip –
won Mackeson/Paddy Power, 4th King George, 6th Gold Cup
’65 Jay Trump – won two Maryland Hunt Cups in USA(was, may be still is most sought after jumps prize in USA), 2nd King George
#148
January 3rd, 2012 02:27
Welcome back me….!
Good to see the same quality names here …as in respected views and comments!
I have had so many contrary views (of possible runners who have appeared so far) that will try and sum up inas few words as I can:
I know the stats boys will still claim Hennessy/Welsh Nat etc etc has some/more/lots of influence but my view is that most races run on proper jumping ground have little resemblence to Aintree in April.
The last 10 to 12 years am I right in saying (from Bobbyjo onwards) that a hurdles spin has been part of the prep of 8/11 and my old point (still hammering at it) that SAME SEASON Welsh Nat form is dire in the GN but 15/16 months later stands up…(beware Syncronized but he has just gone and got another 10lbs on his back with the win in Ireland!).
Have the days gone where a Giles Cross might sneak in near the bottom and get ground (and weight from all) where he can just stay and stay…I think sadly they have…
With all the great minds and input here I havent seen the winner mentioned in any seriousness for the last 3 years and I think its because we are looking at the National as still part of the jumps season when due to its date now and Aintree drainage… and dont even get me started on the brush hurdles (very simple..give a horse a challenge and he accepts it…give him something he can kick a good foot out of the top of and he and the jock go way too quick/take too many risks..hence more not less injuries/fatalities)…then we are getting almost a summer national…and most of what has gone before (season wise) has little/no bearing…unless we can find horses who can sustain a gallop on good to firm ground for 4 1/2 miles and is an average jumper…
Anyhow, I will nod to Mr Niche (be good to cross swords again!)and say yes in the Becher your lad didnt get his ground and not get carried away with West End Rocker as the ground come middle of April will not be the same…
#149
January 3rd, 2012 09:16
What can be said about the ground is that it will not be firmer than good. Their watering policy will ensure that. I rather liked Planet Of Sound running in the Hennessy but must admit not done a detail study yet.
Cappa Bleu also reported to prefer better ground than what he met on Welsh National day.
If you want to vote in round 1 Bovril III you have up to tonight.
#150
January 3rd, 2012 13:54
Welcome back Bovril III
Echoing ASM – get your votes up on the thread
Synchronised up to 168 – seems a bit OTT to me…won’t get any better for him tho..so maybe GN after all…Gold Cup I think will try for sure…
#151
January 3rd, 2012 13:55
Happy New Yr Miinehomma!
Air Force One was talked about a bit last yr, but OR120 cripes! only 10yr old cripes! really!….
I thought I was interested in the young Shakalakaboomboom until I saw him run last time, he would have to convince me alot now, certainly this yr.
Welcome back Bovril! hope you are well and ready to vote on our top6 which closes at midnight!
…. last night I noticed a hoverfly on my kitchen ceiling!?! on boxing day I saw a bumble bee in the wirral!?! seasons? What seasons!! 
Yes as Neil/ ASM says, it shouldn’t get better than good ground anymore,…. but it might be a bog
#152
January 3rd, 2012 14:56
Sync 155-168! are you serious!
as you say seems a bit OTT Showlad, but some called the over reaction, I suspect someone here is Phil or certainly has the measure of him ay….
I think Syncs a nice Gold Cup ride for Tony and theres a nice other ride for Tony in the GN -I say with a golden Sync GN ticket,.. am I too loyal to DPI? yes! maybe
– I say as a previously convinced ‘Tony will never win GN’ supporter, hee hee…
What will Tony do!? how will either horse do without him!
Lets say its regular g/s with Sync 11-10 and DPI 11-5 -ooh! (he is 12 for god sake I hope for 11-2! after today I think I can go whistle!) …well things just got a whole lot harder.
Poor Tony in hospital for new yr, really unlucky to fall under your horse like that bringing it down ontop of you, nasty.
Ok, back to discussion, DPI seems in good nick, and is a big, classy beast. 12 yes, but compared to Sync overall a better jumper, rangier stature, now with less weight. If he turns up in good order has a chance.
I think Jonjo may be tempted to remember Syncs previous dodgey jumps being a risk and the fact that he could be useful elsewhere while DPI is still about…. and problem of ‘theres only one Tony McCoy’
#153
January 3rd, 2012 15:19
ASM/anyone – any info handy re top weighted wins/places in GN?
#154
January 3rd, 2012 16:21
Got a feeling Synch’s 168 will be treated in a rather compressing manner by Phil tho…
#155
January 3rd, 2012 18:09
Thanks for the welcome back! I posted the rest of my ah hem rant and it hasn’t shown up so will finish off accordingly…
I do think (especially with this years date) that GN is run almost on another surface to most of the prep races (ie on proper jumping ground) through the winter. Maybe the trainers have got canny and this fewer prep races inc. a hurdles spin is the way to go…and to be honest apart from Amb House (who had more of an old fashioned prep) and Hedgehunter (both who can have been fancied on prev GN form) I couldnt have seen any of the winners since 2000…without the benefit of hindsight ie they fit this and that trend we found after the event…although havent some of those been busted wide open last 3 or 4 winners?
The race itself will even be ridden differently now they bypass a fence (managed fine till 2010 as course wide enough to avoid prone horses…) as I defy anyone to tell me trainers wont say:
‘On second circuit you must go middle to outer as if you have to by pass a fence you will save loads/lose least ground’
All well and good. So say 30 set off 2nd time round…all in the same 1/3 or 1/4 of the course tiring and race riding…can we not see the train crash about to happen rather than if they spread across the course?
In evidence m’lud I give you Big Fella Thanks. 2 attempts made his stamina for the trip questionable even tho placed twice. So a new trainer and canny jock had him scraping the paint to save every yard. Of course he then had to run the width of the course after the 19th to by pass the 20th. G Lee rightly then came across to the inner only to have to do it all again at Bechers. So thats 3 x width of course further…shall we say a consevative 40-50 lengths as Aintree is wide…and go check what he got beat by….
No am not flagging him as a potential winner this year…but making a point…
The damn fool thing is the GN meet is only wher eit is as to give Chelt. horses cchance to run there…not in the GN as such (we have long seen very very few do a Chelt/GN double…I know DPI did but he had a spin round mid div in a hurdle race…and S.Birch bumbled around the Cross Country)so the feature race (ie the best race in the world) is put back so horses can run in the supporting card as well as Chelt….umm if you pardon the pun…thats cart before the horse no??
I accept it has always been the case that certain horses need certain conditions but these days, as mentioned, Aintree gives no clues as it is so different/summer ground. Perhaps the wonderful Nina C (and have heard her dissed on here too) and her great win on near firm ground in the Irish National could do the double but I think said horse is too young… You only get a comparative clue if Ayr has a dry spell for Scots National so Beshabar has to be considered. Then again Poker de Sivola did something similar from the clouds in the Whitbred…
I had 66/1 on Junior (check my posts lasrt year!) just before Chelt for 2012 GN (it may get burnt with the Silver By Nature 66/1 I was waving around this time last year…but that underlines the proper horse for proper ground but wont get it in the National dilemma) and he has to be in with a big shout.
I am impressed with old Mon Mome at Chelt too esp as it may get in with 10-8ish…and have taken a little bit of 50′s ew.
Other than that …Carruthers way too inconsistent…WN winners and placed are better 15/16 months later…Always Right (SN 3rd) ran a stinker on Boxing Day…
I might just bypass this round of voting as am clueless….so no change there then!!!
#156
January 3rd, 2012 18:27
You are anything but clueless Bovril and 1st round of voting is for us all to throw in our early, approximate and ‘gut’ thoughts – so on yer go
#157
January 3rd, 2012 18:33
Of others mentioned: Shakalaka ran an average 7th in the Topham last year not staying on…so he jumps the fances..
Always Waining ran poorish in Becher and stuffed Shaka in Topham….
The Midnight Club only got round as had Ruby W on board last year…jumped v poor..
Ballab. I reckon with do a Comply OD and DontPI and run a place under big weight but too short to back ew
Oscar Time might well be the one from last year…light prep…depends on the weight…
DPI could still get a place or top 8 but age might catch him up if the weight doesnt. He actually ran a better race than 2010 re time and weight carried yet it seemed not to have been noted…
SofP. surely will have tumbled down the weights now and not get in…remarkable horse that runs 1 race a year and places in the GN!! I still think with a prep (even hurdles) it coulda/woulda/shoulda…but hey ho.
I will still keep a watching brief on Skippers Brig. Yes soft/er ground horse but he beat Ballab. going away at Kelso before last years race. Got run off his feet on unsuitable ground and was still a creditable 9th..(Mon Mome country the year before he won…)so if (a big if) it rains…
I think that sums up those on my personal radar and underlines my indecision!!
All views welcome to either agree or differ!!
#158
January 3rd, 2012 18:34
Oh go on then Showlad…I’ll vote…as long as nobody laughs!!
#159
January 3rd, 2012 18:52
Can’t wait for the weights (excuse the pun).
29 whole days between Gold Cup and GN this year. Think Synchro could well run in both if GC not too taxing for him and Aintree has at least ‘soft’ in the going description (which it has for the last few years).
Could see him getting the 11’10 in GN and possibly a horse on OR 161/160 etc being closer on say 11’04 or 11’05.
Whatever way you shake it can see Synchro having a horse or horses (maybe Ballabriggs punished a lil as 2011 winner) who may be 7 or 8 knots away on OR but Phil having them 2 or 3lbs closer to him.
Fascinating
#160
January 3rd, 2012 19:00
PS is Phil only going to the 11’10 in his compression style or could he well revert to the 12’00 of old if he needs it?
Merigo fans: he drops to OR 133 today – why oh why run him with 3 crap runs when he was sitting nicely on the GN get-in-able OR of 141 after his valiant 2nd in Ayr.
Sorry guys but this is a potential winner of the Grand National and his team are desperate to run him – so WHY THE GORMLESS PLAN OF 3 DUFF RUNS PRIOR TO THE WEIGHTS????!!!!
#161
January 3rd, 2012 19:11
I agree Showlad but will mention that 1 prob with GN weights is that they are set in stone after publication.It works for people who want to preserve a mark (but maybe not giving the horse sufficient prep) and against those who want to run a horse Oct-Jan…
I think there should be ‘penalties’ so anything on a low weight can get a penalty if it runs well/wins after publication so promoting ‘form horses’ in to the 40 and relegating those only there on a preserved out of date mark…
I know…it means those higher up will be put off running as if they run well they may get to GN with 4 or 5lbs more…but then againthey have run well so form horses so deserve the penalty….zzzzzzzzzzzzz
#162
January 3rd, 2012 19:51
What a difference 8 weeks makes in this game!!!
At the end of November I had Neptune Collonges as top weight on 168, now he has been dropped to 159 and if Synchronised runs off 168, I accept Mr Smith will probably compress him 3lbs or so, now Neptune will run off about 11st 4- 11st 1. Gonna bang my head against a wall for a bit now!!!
#163
January 3rd, 2012 20:46
Can somebody talk me through Junior and what he brings to the race, please.
#164
January 3rd, 2012 21:45
Junior plus points – Cheltenham Festival winner. From a top stable. Trained for the race. OR 153 is fair.
Junior minus points – only had 7 chases. Dont know of many National winners who had won at Royal Ascot before. Winning a National after potentially just 1 prep run is rare in recent years.
#165
January 3rd, 2012 21:51
I have already mentioned that Synchronised wont win the GN now so I can only assume there are some fanboys who had an ante-post bet before his last win who are still dreaming. lol
#166
January 3rd, 2012 21:54
ha ha Graham, I do kinda of wonder myself
last yr so obviously he has potential and some credentials to step up and certainly in distance! I think, but he is in the large inexperienced group of decent horses the right age, OR etc interestingly is one who has not been out this term yet!
I think suprisingly its going to be a good traditional race, with a good show from experienced oldies (12yr olds) in the top10 and ofcourse young Niche!/// a couple of these upstarts will be in there I’m sure for good measure, just not sure which ones.
I am on the fence with this horse, so I’m sure a major fan could try persuade better, but the way I see it, the main comparisons people are stuck on is that he beat Faasel by 24l at cheltenham whereas Ballabriggs only beat Faasel half a length in a similar race. This could turn out to be the danger of comparisons, only time will tell.
He also was 3rd in the morson- servo/DPIs race
He is a firm favourite here and generally, but has yet to make it onto my final cut,.. possibly cause I’m a sucker for 12yr old former winners and runners up…. come on back Mon Mome!!! seriously OR144! couldn’t rule him out being thereabouts if he can keep up
#167
January 3rd, 2012 21:56
Shakalakaboomboom is interesting, but hes a bit gangly looking which worries me a bit. Bit annoying that N Henderson pulled him out of the Becher as I wouldve liked to see how he got on there.
#168
January 3rd, 2012 21:59
yes Mik I thought he a bit gangly too. Junior does atleast look solid.
#169
January 3rd, 2012 22:05
Mike- this ‘fanboy’ and a few others here, have already had a few Synchronised payouts!
so holding an anti post GN ticket at 75-1 is not a bad thing at all. I have already won as far as I’m concerned. If you had read anything anyone has said you would not need to assume us fanboys are still dreaming hey
#170
January 3rd, 2012 22:39
Ah ha! becauseicouldn’tsee how appropriate, seems to be your fav Mike, although not exactly nailed your top 6 to the board again…. give it a bash! go on!.. do it! hello Mike!? Mike!! ….I won’t bash you for it even if you have a habit of rubbing people up the wrong way occasionally
I like a few firm opinions but afraid your only pick is about the only horse Ican’tsee at all!… much prefer holding my anti post ticket than yours lad hey.
#171
January 3rd, 2012 22:59
Mike think it would be helpful not to be so dogmatic in your opinions.
Could Synchro win GN with top weight – for me absolutely YES and if he did run, even as top weight, for me he would defo finish Top 4/5.
Did I have a large ante post bet on him before his Lexus win – answer NO.
Unlike many top weighted at the GN this stamina king with great finishing gears is strongly suited to the GN and its demands.
Be great if he was weighted at OR 160 but agree with Billymag that he will probably be weighted as if OR 165. Could he give Balabriggs 5lb and beat him? ABSOLUTELY. I don’t mind at all anyone with differing views but won’t deign to call them ‘fanboys dreaming’. It’s exactly this tone that doesn’t sit well with the friendly banter on here and encourages arguments rather than discussion.
#172
January 3rd, 2012 23:05
Yes Mike where is your Top 6 o wise one ha ha
C’mon Mikey – nail ‘em!! 
#173
January 3rd, 2012 23:06
Team: spoke to stables today and Beshabar “almost certainly out – but look out 2013!”.
#174
January 3rd, 2012 23:12
Hi Graham – still find the 4m4f the sticking point for me with Niche (whom I adore as a horse) but must say that 7lbs off this time round and that nice Becher prep could REALLY come in handy
#175
January 3rd, 2012 23:22
thanks Showlad- wonder if I could borrow Long Runs ear plugs….do you know if Skippers Brigg is out for season by any chance too?
I thought he was, so did Maureen, Bovril just put him in his top6, maybe it was a wait n see injury I forget, be nice if I could remember…
#176
January 3rd, 2012 23:29
Happy New Year kj and everyone.
JUNIOR – queue PABLO – all your doubles on him must be the reason for his price.
BOVRIL III – BESHABAR is out ‘til 2013 GN unless the MAYAN Calendar is correct and so the 2012 GN will be the last one ever. I wonder will Betfair give a price on that and more importantly will they do a Paddy Power and pay out early.
SYNCHRONISED – Go Racing.ie have him on OR163 – up 8 lbs.
#177
January 4th, 2012 01:13
Sort of raised this before, but we have seen 2 Saturday handicaps and the Welsh National this season go the way of horses that have been dropped quite a way in the weights for running badly – which is unusual for high profile races over fences (especially the GN itself where winner’s OR has usually only fallen significantly prior to GN win as a result of time out through injury)
Carruthers – highest OR 156, won Hennessy off 146
Deep Purple – highest OR 166, won London National off 149
Le Beau Bai – highest OR 148, won Welsh off 131
Not sure what this means.
The races were crap?
The handicapper has changed his ways?
There are no decent younger unexposed handicappers coming through?
The prize money, prestige and opportunities are greater at the Spring Festivals (GN worth £500k to the winner, Hennesy & Welsh only £51k a piece)?
Trainers don’t like running/ruining their best handicappers on likely crap winter ground unless they are out-and-out slowboats like Silver By Nature and Giles Cross?
If some of those reasons are valid then it wouldn’t surprise me should the winner of GN 2012 have run in fewer than 4 prep races (even 1 or 2) and have been at least placed in a previous Spring Festival race – either in a Championship Novice event or in a decent handicap – i.e. campaigned as a Spring ground horse but still relatively unexposed and open to further improvement over a trip over fences.
For me Junior would fit that bill perfectly.
The weights will be very informative this year I think – maybe Phil has a few tricks up his sleeve yet…
#178
January 4th, 2012 02:06
Synchronised – Racing Post have him on OR168
Le Bau Bai – OR140
Giles Cross – OR138
#179
January 4th, 2012 02:13
PABLO –
Can you help us with the old R.P.R.
I know that West End Rocker scored 155 for his Becher win, can you tell us what Carruthers scored in the Hennessy please.
SYNCHRONISED – everything that A.P. and J.J. have said over the last 12 months would give the impression that he is a very slow, small horse and is not an Aintree type horse. Small horse they say but he did win the W.N. with 11.06 and he almost got away with top wt. 11.12 in the Utt 34f G/S. Top wt would obviously be a problem over 36f but I think the real problem is his lack of a high cruising speed on better ground. The Lexus/Irish chase was perfect for him, over here they go slow, slow, then sprint from 2 out and so even on the better ground he had no problem staying with the pack. The GN on better ground will be a totally different story, lickity – split from start to finish, I think he’ll be jumping the canal turn when the rest are at the elbow. I had a nice GN pot built up on him over the last few months but when he jumped the last in the Lexus I pressed the Gordon Greco, quick sticks button and sold my GN shares. Thinking if I wait any longer no one will want them – silly me – a few hours later I could have made double the price – strange how others think. Time will tell if I have made a huge mistake or not.
#180
January 4th, 2012 03:36
Right, just for the Craic -
Will use those under 100/1 with Betfair at the moment and apply 4 (20/20) 1 yr before stats (leaving out Lord G.) and 3 (20/20) 31st Dec stats.
1 yr. before stats –
20/20 ran in 7 chases or more.
20/20 won 17k or more chase – prize money seasonally adjusted.
20/20 chase win place strike rate (1st,2nd,3rd) 47%+
20/20 career win place strike rate (1st,2nd,3rd) 47%+
And these 31st Dec. stats –
20/20 ran in 3 handicap chases or more
20/20 won a race at 24f or more
20/20 won 1 of last 10 chases
Leaves a list of 14 –
Current OR / Age / Odds.
168 Synchronised 9 34/1
160 Ballabriggs 11 21/1
160 Don’t Push It 12 55/1
158 Midnight Chase 10 42/1
153 Junior 9 18/1
150 Oscar Time 11 22/1 (2 chase wins)
150 Big Fella Thanks 10 90/1 (2 chase wins)
150 Chicago Grey 9 44/1
149 West End Rocker 10 21/1
148 The Midnight Club 11 27/1 (2 chase wins)
147 Always Right 10 34/1
144? Mon Mome 12 90/1
144 ShakaBB 8 27/1
143 Prince De Beauchene 9 46/1
#181
January 4th, 2012 13:10
Thanks Miinne.
Can anyone remember Irish horse protocol – using Irish OR or UK OR? 163 seems right to me – 168n excessive – what yard stick would Phil use?
#182
January 4th, 2012 13:46
Miinnehoma – Carruthers 157 RPR in Hennessy
Showlad – pretty sure Phil would use 168, the UK OR, but would probably compress that by at least 4lbs – so may well end up 163 anyway (or less if he’s feeling generous – basically his next mission is to get top weight to win the GN)
#183
January 4th, 2012 15:12
Thanks Pablo
Happy New Year my friend.
Pablo any link re ‘his next mission is to get top weight to win the GN’. Fascinating.
#184
January 4th, 2012 15:15
Miinehomma Pablo, happy new yr!
enjoying the good banter, some nails hit square on here, kinda.
but not with top weight so far!
‘Oh-we’ as John Travolta said in that terrible film Face Off
Pablo #177- I think all of those points are involved.
I do think Carruthers, Le BB and Deep Purple won from a significantly dropped mark because they are better than that (as previously thought) had an off yr, for Carruthers inparticular and the young unexposed group either haven’t got their act together yet or aren’t that good.
Synchronised however til now has slipped through the net, he can win any season as long as its a bit wet and long
Maybe little legs will wait til he drops back a few pounds by punching above his weight!?
Certainly picking a few of these winners this season past, has been pretty easy with pretty good odds!!? Syncronised 18-1 Giles 7-1? both had little competition really, youngsters were not able to breach the gap.
Carruthers atleast had competition, but if back to full health still looked good for his henessey and a push from Miine helped me go for it
But yes, two little horses, a lovely slowboat, a Purple suprise and as the Lexus showed a moderately run race with a sprint finish played into Syncs hands,.. but still the best horse to me.
Miine summed up the problems for him GNwise well #179.
As for the list of 14 qualifiers- I can only have Junior out of the new kids! annoyingly
really like Always Right as I said before, his jockey is a real sticking point.
I was keen on Midnights for last yr,…
was Club flattered by Ruby in the race? certainly had traffic issues and ran on, but Ruby was worryingly scathing about him!… My Will part deux?
Chase has had some shine rubbed off, but finding his level, which is quite high, Hard yrs racing last year now having a quieter yr? aiming for the race?
#185
January 4th, 2012 15:29
Yes indeed HAPPY NEW YEAR All
#186
January 4th, 2012 16:06
I am hoping that this year Mr Mullins consents to running two that were entered for last year.
I believe if “plot horse” is used to describe any horse this year then it must be Quiscover Fontaine.
A very good hurdle prep last time out had been preceded by an entry last year and although I am not in the know once can summise from this that he could well have run had other JP entrants fallen by the wayside.
He certainly confirmed his trainer’s belief that he would stay and this belief may well have stemmed from the fact that Mullins had also been in possession of another gelding by Antarctique that had taken the 3m 6f Punchestown race for the stable.
He would certainly become an irrevocable stat buster if he were to prevail but he commands some respect.
However, I keep coming back to Scotsirish. The analysis of his last run does not tell the full story. He was storming home against quality two milers last time out. He has experience of the fences, he’s by a good staying sire that has produced a NH Chase winner and would arguably have produced the 2001 Grand National winner had things not gone awry.
He would also, in my opinion, have won the X Country race that descended into farce and in all honesty at the age of 11 he looks the finished article and in tip top form. Early on in his chasing career he had some problems but he looks a completley safe conveyance nowadays and has learned well.
Is anyone in the know with regards Scotsirish’s participation? If he’s an intended then I will be all over him like the proverbial rash.
#187
January 4th, 2012 16:59
anyone know about tail of the bank if entered really liked this horse last year and sure to improve when stepped up in trip
#188
January 4th, 2012 18:17
Does Scotsirish have the necessary class to win now I wonder. Best years appear to be behind him. Having said that if a few fancied ones fall then you never know.
#189
January 4th, 2012 19:58
Er, yes he does.
#190
January 4th, 2012 20:09
Aha; that answers my question about Antarctique. I’m sure Ferdy has a few of his horses. I know when I first saw Quiscover I was very impressed by his jumping. As for Scotsirish, he seems to have ben around forever, doesn’t he, and horses like that sometimes slip under the net. Mullins has obviously got a plan for him; if only we knew what it was!
#191
January 4th, 2012 20:16
Hi 7T funny you mentyion re ScotsIrish I was thinking the same thing…
In his great £44k Guiness chase win over 20f and then his chase win over 24f in Nov he was keeping on. Don’t know if XC at Chelts was to test his stamina…
3rd in Topham last year and though a classy beast unless he is planning otherwise obv Willie doesn’t think he’s got a 36f in him. Also at 11 you’d think he would have tried by now.
Still form with him as his best win only 8 months ago and and his longest distance win only 6 weeks ago..
#192
January 4th, 2012 20:20
KJ re Synchro and winning with top weight previously: near top weight at 11’6 and 11’5 in his Welsh and Midlands National wins over 30f and 34f.
#193
January 4th, 2012 20:21
He’s in the form of his life, has finished runner up over the fences twice carrying 11-10 and 11-12, currently rated 154, has won a Handicap Chase off a mark of 150, has a fantastic record in massive runner fields, finsished only 7 lengths behind a Champion Chase winner and 5 behind the current Jewson holder over an inadequate trip and was staying on powerfully. He has only once carried a weight below 11st in his career (at Auteuil) which highlights the tasks he has been set, in fact the lowest weight he has ever carried in a handicap chase is 11-7. He would have less than this on current ratings. He hasn’t been parted from his jockey since November 2008, a total of 28 chases and boasts 37 chases in total. He can certainly handle himself. He’s a player.
#194
January 4th, 2012 20:36
Agree with Quiscover Fontaine – very interesting contender – unexposed over a trip but with great prospects of staying, twice ran RPR 150+ at Spring Festivals – plus pace to be competitive over 2m and 2m4f
Only 3 horses interest me:
1. Planet Of Sound (all-in if 11’5 or less)
2. Quiscover Fontaine (all-in if he runs well in chase prep – Bobbyjo usually Mullins option for best GN contenders – and AP on board)
3. Junior (all-in if vibes are right during race week)
#195
January 4th, 2012 22:27
Ta Miinehomma
From your list I’m less keen on Synchronised given the additional weight and now interested in Midnight Chase given he’s down 3lbs for finishing 3rd 16 lengths giving lumps of weight away to the first 2.
Also interested in Always Right and West End Rocker.
#196
January 4th, 2012 23:51
Info on Scotirish…
“19Nov11 Punchestown ( 24 Sft ,RPR146 )
He actually didn´t jump as well here as he has jumped at home, but it´s nice to have races like this for a horse like him after going around for two years trying to win a race. He´ll probably stick to these races – Willie Mullins”
#197
January 5th, 2012 00:53
Does anyone know what price Quiscover is at the moment [oddschecker keeps crashing on me]? Could be the next Slim Pickings, though; not quite good enough to win [but had some nice ew bets on him].
#198
January 5th, 2012 01:24
Maureen with tradional bookmakers he’s best price of 40/1 with Vc and Stan James. However with Betfair he’s trading at 65 or 64/1.
#199
January 5th, 2012 02:39
Thanks!
#200
January 5th, 2012 05:02
Pablo – many thanks for RPR info.
Planet Of Sound, Deep Purple and Baby Run only fail the Hcap stat.
Tail Of The Bank is a new one on me. I see he has only run in 4 chases with 1 win (C4 worth 2K) – no runs @ 24+.
Remember when Party Politics won the GN there was a general election at the time, I wonder would the 2012 Olympics point the way – SYNCHRONISED swimming at wet Aintree or West End Rocking.
#201
January 5th, 2012 05:35
From Crisp -
Someone asked about prep runs/ last prep run / days since last time out. The biggest gap I found over last 50 years or so was Specify’71, 12 weeks, 84 days since last run. Aldaniti’81, 52 days since last run. Apart from those all the winners since 1970 ran within 49 days. Several winners in the 1960′s ran within between 10-14 days before.
Number of preps. Five winners since 1960 ran less than four prep runs;
Ayala ’63, extremely bad winter and had injuries, 3 preps.
Aldaniti,came back from injury, 1 prep.
Last Suspect’85, 3 preps.
Miinnehoma’94, came back from injury, 2 preps.
Ballabriggs had 3 preps.
They all won at least one of their preps.
Over the last 30 years only Aldaniti (1), Grittar (4), Miinnehoma (2), Royal Athlete (4) and Ballabriggs (3) didn’t run a prep until January 1st or later.
#202
January 5th, 2012 05:38
Prep runs of the Top 20 on our Table.
From 1st Sept -
Junior –
West End Rocker – P1
Oscar Time – 4
Synchronised – 731
Always Right – 1P
Ballabriggs –
Shakalakaboomboom – 1
Planet Of Sound – 2
Niche Market – 92
The Midnight Club – BD4
Don’t Push It – 6
Any Currency – 3P
Chicago Grey – UR37
Western Charmer – 30
Killyglen – 3034
Knockara Beau – 026
Alfa Beat – 1
Midnight Chase – F3
Prince De Beauchene – 5
Deep Purple – 1
#203
January 5th, 2012 06:57
I just noticed the yrs of the 5 GN winners in the last 30 yrs that didn’t have a prep before Xmas.
’81
’82
’94
’95
’11
‘ ?
If the pattern continues this yr then it would point to Junior/Ballabriggs/Big Fella Thanks from the list of 14.
Strange that the Big Fella has not been out yet. Always up with the pace, looking great, from 4 out ’til he jumps the last and then nothing. Ferdy must have a secret plan this yr to get him to stay the extra 200 yds – fourth time lucky maybe.
#204
January 5th, 2012 07:12
Tail Of The Bank no runs at 3 miles. Unlikely he’ll get in, along with Mad Max who also needs to fulfill that condition. Remember all runners need at least a fourth place or better in a three mile or further chase. It’s a new condition they brought in during the summer to try and keep out non stayers.
#205
January 5th, 2012 10:48
Scotsirish is favourite for (and, if taking the correct route, likely winner of) the X Country at the Festival so with the break between Chelts & Aintree could still run in GN (Silver Birch had 32-day gap between the two races)
Mullins ran him 13 times during 2011, which is fine if his target is the X Country because it’s a weak race and he’d be the classiest horse in the race, but that sort of programme is surely not ideal for GN?
Surely at this point, of those at odds against, he’s simply the banker of the Festival in the X Country?
#206
January 5th, 2012 13:01
Like Pablo i like Junior and am warming to Planet of Sound. POS didnt make my short list of six due to:
Negative
1. Only two handicap chases.
2. OR 159 (a major negative)
3. Longest win 25f – can he do 4.5 miles? (but record at 24f or more is 1st and 2nd so not so bad)
Positive
But on all other fronts he looks the part. He has run in 10 C1 chases (six were G1 and three G2)- does this make up for that missing handicap chase??
Won Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1) 119k in April 2010.
2nd (“key race” trend) in this years Hennessy Gold Cup Chase with comment ” Chased leaders, driven to challenge 4 out, dropped to close 3rd 2 out, rallied to chase winner again run-in but no impression” on 11.02 (winner on 10.04).
TS159, RPR165
OR/RPR +6
Has the class for sure, has the speed for sure but will he get a winnable weight?
With a decent weight he is likely to come into my top six but off OR159 i cant seee this happening?
Lets remember that in the last twenty years (since 1991) the highest weight carried by a GN winner was 11.05 by Dont Push it in 2010 (but only OR153).
Have to say i will also lump on along with Pablo if 11.05 or less.
What is the likely top and bottom weight for POS? Views team.
#207
January 5th, 2012 14:57
POS has been one in the wings for me, since showing his form this season with a stone more than the winner in the Hennessey.
far from it. He has credentials to prove it. True he hasn’t exactly run the distance but does look like he could.
He looks the type, big and ‘lollupy’ and thats not to say by that I mean slow and stupid
I have teamed him in my head with distance proven Always Right in terms of his size and shape, both have that long lowly slung neck and sturdy looks, that helps with balance and momentum in the national. An interesting case for sure, but OR 159 could really test him getting 4m4 better than others.
Scotsirish has always seemed a rather confusing horse, probably because he’s often a bridesmaid and also because back in 2009 he was seemingly heading for longer trips that suited but since then has been back at 17f/20f alot. A thick irish stew perhaps!
Really looked to be coming strongly to win the x country last time!
Can this race hatch another GN plan?
I am not sure, with most x country contenders think they’re just having fun and keeping the horse interested. I couldn’t rule him out because of his run there, not that its helped me in the past…but this horse has serious mileage with 37 chases, I think that is unheard of in terms of winning the national. This kind of plot if it is one, is a frustrating one
#208
January 5th, 2012 16:27
Scotsirish interests me as well. Was slightly suprised that he appeared to be staying on at the end of the X-Country but I suppose that course takes a lot less out of a horse than Aintree.
Although, I actually he think he would have finished 2nd in that race, not 1st
#209
January 5th, 2012 16:31
Pablo
January 5th, 2012 10:48
Scotsirish is favourite for (and, if taking the correct route, likely winner of) the X Country at the Festival so with the break between Chelts & Aintree could still run in GN (Silver Birch had 32-day gap between the two races)
Mullins ran him 13 times during 2011, which is fine if his target is the X Country because it’s a weak race and he’d be the classiest horse in the race, but that sort of programme is surely not ideal for GN?
Surely at this point, of those at odds against, he’s simply the banker of the Festival in the X Country?
———————————-
Dangerous! In a previous year Garde Champetre was my banker and didn’t even place (the year that A New Story won). It’s often difficult to predict what other horses will do over those fences. I agree that Scotsirish is a worthy favourite, but I really liked the way Balthazar King took to those obstacles. Havings said that, I can’t see any odds for Balthazar for Cheltenham
For me, at current price of 6/4, Quevega is tha banker. Rarely runs, always wins!
#210
January 5th, 2012 19:14
Miine-
hopefully Sync can double up in a less embarressing fashion?!
was in the pub for a late late liquid lunch,… and picked up The Times there to see they had a Synchronised story! …they have sold double the number of tickets to the synchronised swimming than actually existed, in an ‘embarrassing administrative…’ not sure what we can read from this
#211
January 5th, 2012 21:16
What about the financial crisis in the Eurozone surely you would want “Any Currency ” other than the Euro. Ok may be taking it a bit too far!
#212
January 5th, 2012 21:50
I quietly fancied Killyglen last year and got a great run for my money. he absolutely loved it and whilst people may doubt he will stay the jockey said he had loads of horse left under him.
Only had one chase and i havent seen the race but probably would/should have won. 1st (cappa bleu 3rd WN), 2nd (tamarinbleu won veterans) have franked form and being kept fit over hurdles. if you check out his form in the 2010 grimthorpe he beat some good horses giving weight (merigo, cloudy lane, rambo). since his novice year won 3/4 he has thankless tasks facing denman or lumping 11st12lb round.
he has obviously been trained with this race in mind again and will probably get an even better racing weight the 10st10 last year.
#213
January 5th, 2012 21:59
Indeed Billy, it looked like we may take any currency, until a couple of credible runs failed to get an increase in his rating and a poor show at christmas means he’s been slightly downgraded!
don’t want to write this one off completely, but its not looking good …. he’s too safe in style unlike the bankers playing with our money. Ha ha.
#214
January 5th, 2012 22:51
Seems ages to GN weights let alone the race so have started the Cheltenham betting…
Backed Scotsirish for X Country and had a cheeky treble on these three:
Scotsirish (X Country)
Noble Prince (Ryanair)
Bobs Worth (RSA)
#215
January 5th, 2012 22:56
Hi there everyone avid follower of this forum for many years and glad to be here again , im not a pro at the racing game by any stretch but love it , and this year got tickets for aintree for christmas so would be amazing to find the winner.
re Ballabriggs this was on the racing post website a few days ago:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/newspaper_archive.sd
#216
January 5th, 2012 23:00
sorry that article didnt come up in the link but if you put ballabriggs in the search box an article from 2nd of jan appears where the quote
“”We are working back from Aintree with Ballabriggs and he will probably go to Kelso again,” McCain said.”
Kelso is March
#217
January 5th, 2012 23:06
Hi Dragonman welcome and hope to hear from you in the weeks leading up to April 14 and this season’s grand national.
I’m no pro myself
just a dedicated amateur who likes to share his views on the big race.
Last year I got second, third, fourth & fifth but if I’m honest there is no substitute for picking the winner which I hope most of us (if not all of us) will be on.
#218
January 5th, 2012 23:21
Article on racing post today about Al Ferof also confirmed Calgary Bay’s intentions this year:
Like Somersby, Calgary Bay is owned by Tim and Camilla Radford and Knight confirmed another crack at the John Smith’s Grand National is on his agenda.
He won a Grade 3 handicap over 2m5f at Cheltenham this month, but fell at the fourth in last year’s Aintree marathon.
“He’s always been a good horse,” Knight added on At The Races.
“He’s just been a bit unlucky, we’ve never found the right race. He’s not an easy horse to place at distances either, a bit like Somersby.
“I don’t really know what his distance is, but he’s going to be entered in the National. I’m told by all these experts that two-and-a-half-mile horses are good horses for the National.”
Calgary Bay is 40-1 with William Hill for the National.
#219
January 6th, 2012 03:29
Hi
Thanks for the updates and info and differing opinions. Shame about Beshabar.
Miinne..did you see my comments re Big FT? He did 3 widths of the course extra (40-50 lengths) last year as G Lee had him on the inner to save ground so when he ducked back to the inner after the 20th he had to do it all again at Bechers….He got beat by 40 odd lengths…
I personally dont think he does quite get home but he has run 3 crackers and is a hero regardless…
Killyglen is interesting. Watched a re run of 80′s Nationals and Little Polviers fall the year before he won was virtually exact same ie up near the front and going well after Valentines… Not 100% convinced by how he matches up on other stats but his form so far is quite solid if not spectacular…
Intersesting stat about horses who havent run before Jan and GN winners. I think the more solid stat is the 49(?)days ie no horse in last 20 (and more years ) has won without a run in the previous 49 days (ie 7 weeks)…thats 25th of Feb this year…!!
#220
January 6th, 2012 05:11
Yes Bov, I did read your post. Have a look at this one from ASM back in Nov.
POST 272
Aldaniti&Spartan Missile
November 9th, 2011 13:41
Maureen I reported that post 120. What surprise me though is Big Fella Thanks (BGT).
Big Fella Thanks-
Graham Lee, rider of Big Fella Thanks (7th), said: “He gave me an absolutely magnificent ride, but he didn’t stay.”
Graham Lee said he doesn’t stay, reported by minnehoma, and also my conclusion yet in this week’s Weekender I read the following.
Ferdy Murphy Straight from the stable.
“He ran a huge race in the Grand National last season and for a long way I thought he was going to win it. However, he had a hiccup after the last and stopped very quickly. He was distressed after the race so we sent him to Liverpool university for a thorough set of tests and they found a few little things which we can turn around. The big plan is the same as last season with all roads leading to the Grand National. He could run in the Becher Chase on December 3 first. He needs good ground. “
#221
January 6th, 2012 15:37
Malcolm Jefferson is eyeing a potential Grand National bid with According To Pete following his Rowland Meyrick Chase victory at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
The 11-year-old was a big outsider for the West Yorkshire feature and 8lb out of the handicap, but produced a fine performance to grab the Grade Three prize.
A trip to Doncaster on January 28 is next on the veteran’s agenda, after which he could be prepared for the world’s most famous steeplechase at Aintree.
“He’s grand and the handicapper has had his say, putting him up 15lb,” said Jefferson.
“He said I put him up 8lb myself and he’s put him up another 7lb!
“He seems in good form anyway and I’d imagine he’ll go to Doncaster now for the Sky Bet Chase.
“We’ll see how he gets on there, but he’ll definitely have an entry for the Grand National. He’d get in that with a lovely weight.”
#222
January 6th, 2012 16:57
Martin Keighley’s stayer Any Currency has won and been placed at the track, but needs to bounce back following a no-show in the Welsh National.
Keighley said: “He’s very talented and he’s got some cracking form in the book. He finished fourth at the Festival and would have been closer but for making a mistake. Before that he finished second to Midnight Chase who was fifth in the Gold Cup.
“His first run this season was great, but for some reason he just didn’t fire in the Welsh National. Out of 20 runners only eight finished so it wasn’t just him. He loves Sandown and we’ve found nothing wrong with him so we’ll let him take his chance.”
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#223
January 6th, 2012 19:05
this reported on sky sports today re: westend rocker.
http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/news/12426/7415377/Rocker-to-swerve-Warwick-run
#224
January 6th, 2012 20:00
Sounds like he’s serious with this one, if he wants to protect West End Rocker’s handicap mark.
Most usually run their fancies over hurdles, to do this.
#225
January 6th, 2012 20:28
Thanks dragon man,
after running/winning the becher!? better late than never I suppose. The only reason I could see for running the becher was to see if he had developed a fear of the course, connections said it was to see if he liked it!? thing is I thought he liked it for a few fences anyway, why didn’t they? well, I suppose he is atleast 100% proven now to all that he definately likes it for our money which is nice, if not to go punished come feb.
protect his mark, ha
#226
January 6th, 2012 20:47
Nice spot drangonman re WER – thanks.
#227
January 6th, 2012 20:50
hi gang, could we be looking at no outstanding performances before the GN, up to now we’ve had SYNCHRO, WER,CARRUTHERS,what we need is a performance like COMPLY OR DIE in 2008 EIDER CHASE to really get the ball rollin,one CLASSY horse.
#228
January 6th, 2012 21:18
I find it difficult to evaluate WER, as all his best performances have come with soft/heavy. I accept that he has won on decent ground but they weren’t when recording his best RPRs and as such I’m a bit scared not to have a saver on him but can’t justify a win bet. In fact if I was pushed Id say that the raise in weights he got for the Beecher might have ruled out his winning chance. Unless of course we get a wet one… right got some xmas JD to finish
#229
January 6th, 2012 21:49
Does anyone know when the race conditions (including entry fees, forfeit dates and prize money) are likely to be published? It may be my memory but they seem to be much later than last year in publishing them.
#230
January 6th, 2012 22:34
ESB – if not on http://www.aintree.co.uk/ then I don’t know where to find the race conditions etc
#231
January 7th, 2012 03:56
Anyone else going to watch Exmoor Rangers run at Sandown today with a bit of interest?
After all (sorry GR) he stuffed Niche (and others) at Ascot and might just get my attention with a good run today…
WER: IMO too inconsistent. I remember last year people talking him up after a win at Warwick (on v soft) then trying to excuse the stuffing he got at Haydock by SBN and others as ‘not his ground’ …umm it was v.soft.
He got it again for the Becher…fair enough.
My view is if (big big if these days) comes up soft at Aintree he is too in and out …even on ‘his ground’ and if it is summer/Aintree ground… he wont be in the calculations.
Of course I could be wrong !
TY Miinne re BFT. Not sure I could really really fancy him but think he had every excuse last year for maybe not being a close 3rd…
On the plus side he knows his way round and without looking back (I will if anyone wants them…) I did some stats last year about placed horses/winners ‘re-placing’ (last 40 years) in future nationals and it was about 3.5/1 so (at 1/4 the odds a place) at 14/1 or bigger you should always back them.
To offer proof: Last year DPI was 9/1 (too short so no bet) SOP 28/1 so a 1 unit ew gave 6 units profit – 2 units lost on BFT (18/1 generally).
#232
January 7th, 2012 08:04
Any Currency is in that race but no one seems to fancy him. He’s on OR132 at present so needs a win asap before the GN wts come out.
Horses that placed second in the GN in consecutive years –
1925/26 – Old Tay Bridge
1939/40 – Mac Moffat
1954/55 – Tudor Line
1965/66 – Freddiez
1975/76 – Red Rum
1983/84 – Greasepaint
1997/98 – Suny Bay
The next one is overdue and I’m getting a strong feeling that Oscar could be in the frame.
#233
January 7th, 2012 11:03
Today’s Sandown 3:10 race has:
Neptune Collonges 11-12
Master of The Hall 11-3
Wymott 10-11
Exmoor Ranger 10-11
others +
Any Currency 10-0
Racing Post on Any Currency performance in Welsh National: “Chased leaders until 15th, soon toiling and dropped to rear, tailed off when pulled up 18th”
I guess the lack of interest in Any Currency stems from his ‘P’ in Welsh National, but that was heavy ground and the first time he’d run on heavy ground since a maiden hurdle 3 years ago.
So, could possibly be excused that performance if his usual liking for GS ground comes to the fore today.
I’m hoping for a big run as it will ‘frank’ his form earlier in the season when 2nd to Midnight Chase and 3rd to Deep Purple.
#234
January 7th, 2012 11:31
According to Keighley Any Currency trainer he didn’t act on the heavy ground at Chepstow last time, but has a live chance on his third in the London national the race before. In Keighley’s words he was bouncing at home on Tuesday and will run if working well on Wednesday.
Agreed Bovril III that on my first impressions about West End Rocker that he does love softish kinds of going. However in the official report last summer (2011) while ground firmer than good is to be avoided they are aiming at good to soft for what they call perfect jumping ground.
#235
January 7th, 2012 12:09
I am happy to forgive Any Currency’s run in the Welsh National and still fancy him for Aintree.
However, I do not fancy him at all for today and so that could pose a problem
#236
January 7th, 2012 12:12
I can’t be having Big Fella at all. He has shown that he maybe stays until 4m but repeatedly does not stay that final half a mile. I have a friend Craig who has put large bets on him (and him only) each year and kept the faith but even he turned round to me after the race last year and said “I don’t think he stays”!
#237
January 7th, 2012 12:48
Any Currencys price will come in after today if he does well; think someone mentioned him on The Morning Line and said he could run a big race.
#238
January 7th, 2012 14:28
The 3.10 at Sandown is of big interest for some bigger priced possibles.
Neptune Collonges – A staying on top 4 finish without winning would be ideal here and should see his mark drop a couple of lb’s. If he can get into the GN off something like or155 then he could be of interest.
Any Currency – Desperately needs a win if he is going to make the cut. I think he has a decent chance after his Welsh National flop. I’m willing to excuse that on account of the boggy ground and will probably back him each way today.
Exmoor Ranger – A place would be ideal here with a subsequent quote from connections that they will enter him in the Grand National. Dartnall said in the RFO he would consider an Grand National entry for him but i would like to hear something concrete. My hunch is that he will get an entry and i had a cheeky few pounds at 300/1+ on betfair in the hope i can lay it off at a later date.
Wymott – Has been disappointing so far this season but if he shows some spark tomorrow i will probably back him for the National, if i can get an attractive price. McCain sees him as a “future” National horse but given the way this season has panned out he may be tempted to enter him this year.
#239
January 7th, 2012 14:32
I have taken Any Currency
…. to bounce back for today, if he wins he will be back on target OR wise, but I think he is a bit slow because he is so careful at his fences and this is a problem,…unless all challengers make errors or fall. This looks a desent race, I also will be watching out for Exmoor Ranger, who would be of interest if he could prove he has eliminated jumping errors.
Paddypower giving stake back if Master of the Hall beats your horse by the way.
Bovril- re WER I was not convinced last yr even with the well of support here. Now I think it is true he certainly needs a certain type of soft to run well, much like Currency perhaps?! Think that bottomless race that SBN won left its mark on alot of horses last yr. 4/14 finished, all known to act in the mud. Not sure its his form thats in and out inconsistant, rather the ground! think he is a real aintree horse and ruling him out is not on my cards
Soft is likely to be in the description there remember.
As for Oscar, I was unconvinced he could win but would probably place last yr,… which came true, feel the same this yr even with weight penalty, because of his lack of will or notion to stick his head infront I doubt the win, but if everything else infront falters,… he could well do it.
God I can’t wait for weights day!…who will be given a boost!?
#240
January 7th, 2012 14:40
Just checked the prices on betfair – Beautiful Sound, who was previously 40-45/1 has halved in price the last couple of days. Off a mark of 129, he is nowhere near getting into the National at the moment so it seems strange – any ideas why?
#241
January 7th, 2012 15:16
Ewok
Beautiful sound is off 134 – he went up from 129 after his short-head defeat by SLBB back in May.
There was some money a couple of weeks ago he was 25-1 with at least 1 of the big bookkies.
Cheers, PeterThePig
#242
January 7th, 2012 15:19
Racing post has his OR at 134 Ewok, but still its odd. Maybe the bookies will have everything on 20/25-1 very very soon
#243
January 7th, 2012 15:27
Racing Post web-site crashed…
#244
January 7th, 2012 15:29
… and you’re back in the room. Welcome back Racing Post web-site.
#245
January 7th, 2012 15:30
Thanks chaps, yes I was looking at his last run, rather than his current mark. 134 is still too low to get in though.
#246
January 7th, 2012 15:31
Seems to be okay now!
#247
January 7th, 2012 16:22
Thought Any Currency kept on fairly nicely there, as did Neptune. Not bad.
#248
January 7th, 2012 16:24
The 3.10 at Sandown is of big interest for some bigger priced possibles.
Neptune Collonges – A staying on top 4 finish without winning would be ideal here and should see his mark drop a couple of lb’s. If he can get into the GN off something like or155 then he could be of interest.
Any Currency – Desperately needs a win if he is going to make the cut. I think he has a decent chance after his Welsh National flop. I’m willing to excuse that on account of the boggy ground and will probably back him each way today.
Exmoor Ranger – A place would be ideal here with a subsequent quote from connections that they will enter him in the Grand National. Dartnall said in the RFO he would consider an Grand National entry for him but i would like to hear something concrete. My hunch is that he will get an entry and i had a cheeky few pounds at 300/1+ on betfair in the hope i can lay it off at a later date.
Wymott – Has been disappointing so far this season but if he shows some spark tomorrow i will probably back him for the National, if i can get an attractive price. McCain sees him as a “future” National horse but given the way this season has panned out he may be tempted to enter him this year.
—————————————-
All 4 ran decent races there but particularly Neptune Collonges, staying on into 2nd! If anything it was a bit too good as i dont think hi smark will be going down much after that.
Any Currency ran ok in 4th but unlikely to be good enough to get his mark up.
Exmoor Ranger stayed on well in 5th i think? I reckon he’ll get an entry now.
Wymott was the only slightly disappointing one. he hasnt lived up to expectations this season.
#249
January 7th, 2012 18:16
I wouldn’t give up on Wymott yet (you probably can for this year’s National). I suspect that like a lot of Witness Box’s progeny he will be seen in a better light on better ground. Seems strange to say given he has won on soft and heavy but I will definitely be interested if he turns up in the William Hill on genuinely good ground at Cheltenham (not sure they will let him have a go in the Kim Muir).
#250
January 7th, 2012 21:16
McCain has said a few times that he sees Wymott as a National horse so definitely one for the notebook next year. I wouldnt totally rule out an entry this year but he needs to start showing some sparkle.
#251
January 7th, 2012 23:09
My Bet is going to be on Chigago Grey as I like the greys and this one will definately finish well if it gets round. Neptune Equester also looks favourable if he is to run and should be involved near the finish. Not so sure why Ballabriggs has got so much support at 16-1 as he surely can not win at 5lb heavier than last year. My prediction for top five will be: 1.Syncrhonised 20-1, 2.Oscar Time 20-1, 3.Chigago Grey 33-1, 4.Neptune Equester 33-1, 5. Silver By Nature 40-1. If anyone bets on these and win then remember that you owe me.
#252
January 7th, 2012 23:11
Oh yeh and who does everyone think that AP McCoy, Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty are going to ride this year?
#253
January 7th, 2012 23:15
Killglen is a certainty to do well IF he gets round the jumps without any problems. You dont always see a horse travel as well as he did last year and it isdefinately odd that he was able to travel so well that close to the end.My bets on him not completing again this year though.
#254
January 8th, 2012 11:54
Wymott didn’t get much in the way of meaningful experience in his novice season, so his handicap chase runs this year are probably doing him good as well as doing his handicap mark no harm. Given his lack of experience it would be an odd decision to run him this year (though I note the owner has made an even odder decision recently – employing Peter Ridsdale).
#255
January 8th, 2012 12:33
Thought that was a cracking run from Neptune Collonges yesterday re GN. He’s a definite runner isn’t he – Graham Regan said connections were more than keen.
I backed Synchronised witha liitle bit at 50-1 but probably wouldn’t back him again unless he’s thrown in on OR160 or something and it’s at least soft at Aintree.
Re Kedi Dangalak; Long Run, why not? I too can see Long Run in the GN. The handicapper has been giving those at the top of the weights a chance and 29 days between the races.
Mon Mome; if he runs off OR144, I reckon that would be 10st 10lbs at the most, what a chance to pull of the double!!
Looking at the prep situation. 36/41 had completed at least 24f by 31st December, 34/41 had completed at least 44f. In all those years I still think only Grittar and Ballabriggs had been actively trained not to run until they did. Aldaniti, Royal Athlete and Miinnehoma all came back from injuries.
Perhaps something to look at when we know the final 40;
average OR of the field;winner’s OR;winner’s highest RPR in last 8 chases;
(average is a combined mean/median average)
151; 155; 163; Royal Athlete
150; 149; 157; Lord Gyllene
148; 153; 158; Party Politics
148; 148; 155; Mon Mome
147; 153; 160; Miinnehoma
147; 153; 159; Don’t Push It
147; 152; 170; Rough Quest
145; 150; 154; Ballabriggs
145; 149; 156; Mr Frisk
145; 148; 160; Seagram
144; 142; 153; Bobbyjo
144; 139; 155; Comply Or Die
143; 147; 157; Earth Summit
141; 138; 150; Silver Birch
141; 138; 146; Numbersixvalverde
140; 144; 156; Hedgehunter
138; 139; 148; Monty’s Pass
138; 136; 144; Bindaree
137; 139; 154; Amberleigh House
134; 140; 152; Red Marauder
134; 140; 150; Papillon
#256
January 8th, 2012 14:34
“Re Kedi Dangalak; Long Run, why not? I too can see Long Run in the GN.”
Course he wont be in the GN this year, wake up people. Nicky Henderson has already stated that Shakalakboomboom is his no 1 GN hope.
#257
January 8th, 2012 14:56
Article on Mon Mome. Factually incorrect though!
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/01/08/RACING_Mome.html&BID=465
#258
January 8th, 2012 15:44
“galileo
January 6th, 2012 20:50
hi gang, could we be looking at no outstanding performances before the GN, up to now we’ve had SYNCHRO, WER,CARRUTHERS,what we need is a performance like COMPLY OR DIE in 2008 EIDER CHASE to really get the ball rollin,one CLASSY horse.”
Think Beautiful Sound might be the one for that – needs to win to get in though
#259
January 8th, 2012 16:30
Here’s one to study. Thought I’d read Neptune Equester could be aimed at grand national.
#260
January 8th, 2012 17:55
Top 10 + winner when the wts came out last year with GNOR on left and true OR at the time on the right. Phil can do anything -
1) GNOR160 – DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 11-11-10 (OR164)
GNOR156 – VIC VENTURI (IRE) 11-11-06 (OR155)
2) NR – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 10-11-10 (OR168)
3) GNOR159 – TIDAL BAY (IRE) 10-11-09 (OR166)
4) NR – MIDNIGHT CHASE 9-11-08 (OR163)
5) NR – DEEP PURPLE 10-11-07 (OR160)
6) NR – TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 9-11-07 ( OR159)
7) NR – SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 8-11-06 (OR159)
9) GNOR156 – WHAT A FRIEND 8-11-06 (OR159)
10) GNOR155 – MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE) 8-11-05 (OR155)
16) GNOR150 – BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 10-11-00 (OR150?)
#261
January 9th, 2012 11:21
aldaniti spartan neil thanks for your comments re tail of the bank can you tell me if this requirement of 4th in a 3m chase would have to be before weights announced etc thanks what is the full rule or where could i find it would a rating of 136 get in
#262
January 9th, 2012 13:07
As far as I know they have until that’s particular year official entry stage, usually early February.
Here are the what the review board recommended after 2011
1 Several changes relating to the structure of and groundwork around fences in the race.
2 Minimum age to be 7 not 6 and all horses to have previously finished 4th or better in a steeplechase under rules of 3 miles or further.
3 Various elements of pre and post race procedures to be reviewed and enhanced, including arrangements at the pull up area.
4 Bypassing of fences to continue, with customized equipment.
5 Improved processes for identifying and responding to weather related risks.
6 More targeted suitability criteria for the race’s participants and increased membership for the existing Authority Panel which reviews the suitability of those horses entered in all races over the grand national fences.
7 Existing raceday veterinary inspections of all horses running in the grand national to be extended to all races over the grand national fences. By authority veterinarians.
8 Minimum official rating (OR) now 120 and not 110 as before.
#263
January 9th, 2012 13:26
Entries close 31st January, weights announced 14th of Feb.
#264
January 9th, 2012 13:38
I would like to ask, what do people think the handicap cut off mark will be for this year’s National.
There are alot of highly handicapped horses being spoken about to run in the race and wanted to gauge what people thought on here.
#265
January 9th, 2012 14:18
143
hehe not really. When looking at potential antepost bets, i work to a minimum OR of 140, which tends to be safe.
I’m sure Niche will be fine.
#266
January 9th, 2012 14:19
Confirmed by Graham, thanks.
end of the month is when they need to. fulfill that condition for this year.
The spirit of the rule is to eliminate non stayers but the are loopholes. For instance a horse finishing a well fifth in the Hennessy like Beshabar did and Niche Market last season can’t get in, if that’s their only trip at 3′miles or over. Where a horse who finished a bad fourth in a weak 3 miles race can.
Usually the cut off point is 135, but with upping the minimum OR by 10 I think 140 give or take a pound could be a realistic cut off point this year.
#267
January 9th, 2012 14:59
I would guess OR137/OR140, 10.01/10.04 if OR160 is top weight 11.10. Usually the cut off is around No. 70/80 on the list – Skippers Brig 10.02 was No. 71.
Last year there were 101 entries with 19 horses on OR150+ but only 10 ran. The year before, not sure how many 150+ horses were entered, but 15 ran.
Last 5 years – OR and Weight range.
2011 – 160 – 138, 11.10 – 10.02
2010 – 158 – 139, 11.10 – 10.05
2009 – 158 – 139, 11.10 – 10.05
2008 – 156 – 137, 11.12 – 10.07
2007 – 158 – 134, 11.12 – 10.02
#268
January 9th, 2012 15:02
Just a footnote to add to those rules. In 2011 we saw them bypass fences 20 and 22 (Bechers) whereas a horse each had come down on the previous circuit. This had actually been possible to do from the 2010 running but wasn’t needed that year.
#269
January 9th, 2012 15:22
Graham,
I know you’re going the GN route but did you ever think of running the Niche in the old April Sandown Gold Cup – 3m5f, good ground, right-hand track and if the OR was too high you could always use a claimer.
#270
January 9th, 2012 17:13
19 possible OR150+ horses – maybe loads more.
168-Synchronised
166-Tidal Bay
160-Don’t Push It
160-Ballabriggs
159-Neptune Collonges
159-Planet Of Sound
158-Alfa Beat
158-Midnight Chase
156-Uncle Junior ?
156-Hey Big Spender ?
154-Deep Purple
154-Scotsirish ?
153-Junior
153-Majestic Concorde
152-Carruthers ?
151-Rare Bob
150-Chicago Grey
150-Oscar Time
150-Big Fella Thanks
#271
January 9th, 2012 18:52
Won’t this 3 mile rule rule out a lot of top class horses that have been running in non handicaps or Irish horses that tend to be campaigned over 2 1/2 miles [I believe a lot of Irish races are over that distance]?
#272
January 9th, 2012 19:33
Miinnehoma,
The Niche has been entered for the last two years for that race so it is something that has always been considered.
There is only one Grand National and we are very confident of a big run this year off a potentially very light weight compared to the 150+ handicap list above.
#273
January 9th, 2012 19:35
It could do, but to my understanding it only has to have one in it’s lifetime. I’m sure that under rules will also include Irish races like Irish national. However those 2 1/2 milers like Mad Max who’d Admin said was been aimed for this year’s race need to fulfill this condition or they won’t get in.
Mon Parrain also eliminated this year because of age. If he goes for next year, wonder if he’ll be a good thing.
#274
January 9th, 2012 19:47
Maureen running in non handicaps will not in itself stop a horse running in the grand national. Only the distance, place and if it’s under rules steeplechase. In other words a chase ran on a track in Great Britain (and Ireland, possibly.
) That is at least 24 furlongs in distance (officially ) and it must have finished fourth or better regardless of number of runners.
#275
January 9th, 2012 20:10
What I meant was horses that, because they had been campaigned at the highest level may have finished further down the field in top class races, and had only just started running in handicaps. However, I’m sure it won’t apply to many horses. And, it did used to annoy me years ago when trainers like Martin Pipe used to run several [many?]horses in the race that wouldn’t stay, thereby preventing other horses from running. It’ll be very interesting to see which horses do have an entry, won’t it. My gut feeling with Quiscover is that he will be aimed at the Irish National after his pleasing run last year, with the Grand National the following year.
#276
January 9th, 2012 21:40
Not hugely impressed by the new rules – should eliminate a few good horses one way or another.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the winners and runners-up of the major trial races given a Grand National spot regardless of handicap rating. This would qualify the occasional horse deserving of a run who misses out to possibly inferior candidates – Merigo last year a good example.
#277
January 10th, 2012 06:09
Graham,
I fancy Niche’s chances this year if he gets in off OR 140-142 & to answer your earlier question, I would be very surprised if you failed to make the cut off 140 ( probably 138). Last year was only 3rd time in 40 yrs that horse won with only 3 preps. Need 4 to 6 runs for ideal national prep with last within 42 daYS OF RACE EVEN IF HURDLES. Must not win befor 14th Feb as weight will shoot back up.
Good Luck
#278
January 10th, 2012 10:28
I’m sure people will spot this soon enough (from the Racing Post website) – bit of a shame but doesn’t owe anyone anything…
Grand National winner Don’t Push It retired
By Andrew King 7:45AM 10 JAN 2012 DON’T PUSH IT, the horse who finally realised Tony McCoy’s dream of winning the Grand National, has run his last race and is set to enjoy his retirement at owner JP McManus’s Martinstown Stud in Ireland.
Jonjo O’Neill’s 12-year-old famously landed the National atAintree in 2010 to provide the trainer, McManus and champion jockey McCoy with their first victory in the world’s greatest chase.
Don’t Push It returned to Aintree last April and finished a gallant third behind Ballabriggs. He looked to be all set for a third run in the John Smith’s-sponsored showpiece this spring when running well on his seasonal comeback to finish sixth in a Listed handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in November.
However, the decision to retire him was made on Monday and O’Neill explained: “Don’t Push It remains in good heart and looks a picture out in his field at the bottom of the gallops where he has lived with the sheep who have kept him company for a few years now.
“But he had not really been sparkling in his recent homework and the last thing we wanted to do was make him carry on doing something he was not really happy with.
“After speaking with JP and his racing manager Frank Berry we all decided the best thing to do was call it a day as he owes nobody anything after what he has done. He’ll now be off to JP’s stud for a long retirement.”
Don’t Push It ran 29 times in a career spanning seven years. He landed eight races and produced many notable placed efforts in top races, amassing more than £750,000 in prize-money.
O’Neill added: “I think we’ll always remember the magical day he won the Grand National as it was one of the greatest afternoons in the life of myself, JP and AP as we had all been trying to win the race for so many years.
“But the old horse will want for nothing in retirement at JP’s. However it will be not be easy to replace him in the yard and he’ll be missed by everyone at Jackdaws Castle and, I am sure, the jump racing world as a whole.”
#279
January 10th, 2012 10:32
Looks like McCoy will ride Synchronised then….
#280
January 10th, 2012 11:28
Graham,
Fair dinkum.
Before the rains came I thought he was a dead cert in the Becher. Last year he ran a cracker for you in the GN and now with 7 lbs less he must have a mighty chance.
#281
January 10th, 2012 11:48
I thought he was a dead cert for the Becher too until it poured down.
I think he has a great chance this year,
Last year’s fifth and second in the Becher, dropped 7lbs and potentially running off 9lb less then last year. he must have a chance.
if Synchronised does run and Phil compresses the weights by his usual 5lbs my lad is looking at 10st 4 maybe 10st 5.
Everything else heading in the opposite direction in the weights, and let’s be honest there have been very few horses who have lived up to their “national hype” so far this season some may not even get into the race.
if your not in you can’t win !!
#282
January 10th, 2012 12:11
Niche’s record in handicaps off 10’5 or less
OR 132 1st £39k Ascot Listed Handicap Chase
OR 136 1st £134k Irish National
OR 148 3rd £114k Hennessy
OR 156 5th £99k Hennessy
#283
January 10th, 2012 13:13
PABLO,
that’s why i love this blog site !!
#284
January 10th, 2012 13:25
Niche does look each way banker material
#285
January 10th, 2012 14:51
Pablo, very very interesting RE Niche!
#286
January 10th, 2012 15:20
Gutted! DPI retired in some ways.
‘notfair’- retired should equal moneyback not daylight robbery!
I really fancied him as better than last yr.
My betfair unmatched bets have been snuffled up by some bottom burp
My top6 6pointer has gone before we started
in earnest. Now I’m left with WER my top marker, which feels slightly disappointing actually.
Anyway, boo hoo! my last near winner has been retired, can’t get excited for him, as he hates people and is a gelding. Hope he gets to take his sheepy friends to his new patch. I’m sure it will be arranged. Its rare that owner trainer and jockey are so soft on a horse, and gosh they are. I think its a very early call and has something to do with Synchronised intentions. Least Tony is free to look after him now and DPI well hope he enjoys something.
#287
January 10th, 2012 20:42
hi pablo, I think BEAUTIFUL SOUND will have to win a 3M+ chase to stand any chance of getting in GN, he needs to up his OR,he also tends to idle when he gets in front,also he’s inexperienced with about 5 or 6 chases to his name something you can’t take into the rough and tumble of THE WORLD’S GREATEST STEEPLE CHASE………..A CASE OF WAIT AND SEE.
#288
January 10th, 2012 22:54
Galileo
Share your doubts about Beautiful Sound
Another Elliot horse with only 6 chases under his belt is Jessies Dream – last year’s Novices haven’t exactly set the world alight but he’s a Grade 1 winner and runner up in RSA – on the downside 150+ is a huge rating for a first attempt at a handicap chase (I know Deep Purple won off a high mark but that race was very poor) – also David Johnson owns
Maybe one for next year too…
#289
January 11th, 2012 09:11
Hi Graham.
Re my earlier post, could you tell us how many more times you intend to run the Niche prior to this year’s national? Even if running plans are still a little fluid, this would help with our anti post value assessment.
Many Thanks
#290
January 11th, 2012 09:19
Crisp has this already covered under best RPR in last 8 chases.
(I have updated an old RPR post of Pablo’s).
Best RPR should be RECENT or in a TOP RACE -
16/21 GN winners achieved their best chase RPR during the season of their win.
The other 5 posted their best in a very competitive race:
Royal Athlete – 163 – season before (1st Servo with Top Wt.)
Bobbyjo – 153 – season before (1st Irish Nat) – subsequently posted nothing of note before GN except best ever hurdles RPR
Hedgehunter – 156 – season before (1st Thyestes) – subsequently posted 150 in only chase start season of National win (1st Bobbyjo Chase)
Ballabriggs – 154 – season before (1st Kim Muir with Top Wt.)
Papillon – 164 – two seasons before (2nd Irish Nat with Top Wt.) – subsequently posted RPR 150 following season but nothing major in GN winning season except best ever hurdles RPR run before GN win.
#291
January 11th, 2012 11:01
Mike,
The plan at the moment is to run The Niche at Exeter on the 12th of Feb in a 3 mile Graduation Chase. And depending on what happens there maybe head to Newbury on the 4th of March for the Vetereans chase over 3 mile 2.
I hope this helps you.
#292
January 11th, 2012 12:26
Graham,
That is very helpful. Thankyou and THE VERY BEST OF LUCK !
#293
January 11th, 2012 12:37
The weights are out on the 14th, would a run on the 12th be taken into account.
#294
January 11th, 2012 13:09
Yes i think so. Wasnt there a similar scenario with Tricky Trickster when he won a couple of days before the weights were announced and it ruined his mark?
#295
January 11th, 2012 13:44
Tricky beat The Niche by a short nose in the Aon. both horses went up 2lbs.
#296
January 11th, 2012 14:43
A below average run could see the handicapper being extra lenient and drop him 1 or 2lbs to maybe 140 (ideal) but a win or close place would have the opposite effect. The handicapper (Phil smith?) seems to still work to 1lbs per lenghth where as in the national I believe the true effect of weight is closer to 1lbs for 3 lengths making every pound so important. This is why most recent national winners had shown only moderate form that season prior to the weights being fixed. One exception was Mon Mome who had to run from a 7lbs higher mark for winning the listed boylespoker.com chase than his mark the previous year when he was beaten 60+ lengths. However, that year he only had three prep runs against six the winning year!
#297
January 11th, 2012 16:43
RPR’s. Spreadsheet let me down a while ago. Could anyone verify/check these figures? Thank you.
Mr Frisk RPR156(that season) in last 4 chases
Seagram RPR160 (that season) in last chase
Party Politics RPR158(that season) in last 4 chases
Miinnehoma RPR160 (that season) in last chase
Royal Athlete RPR163 (16 months before) in last 4 chases *what did he post that season?*
Rough Quest RPR170 (that season) in last chase
Lord Gyllene RPR157 (that season) in last 2 chases
Earth Summit RPR157 (that season) in last 3 chases
Bobbyjo RPR153 (12 months before) in last 6 chases *what did he post that season?*
Papillon RPR150 (14 months before) in last 8 chases *what did he post that season?*
Red Marauder RPR152 *when?*
Bindaree RPR144 (that season) in last 3 chases
Monty’s Pass RPR148 (that season) in last 2 chases
Amberleigh House RPR154 (that season) in last 2 chases
Hedgehunter RPR156 (15 months before, RPR150 that season) in last 3 chases
Numbersixvalverde RPR146 *when?*
Silver Birch RPR150 (that season) in last chase
Comply Or Die RPR155 (that season) in last chase
Mon Mome RPR155 (that season) in last 4 chases
Dont Push It RPR159 (that season) in last 2 chases
Ballabriggs RPR154 (13 months before) in last 2 chases *what did he post that season?*
I’m thinking, confirmed by Miinnehoma, that Red Marauder posted best RPR in that season. So it’s 17/21 (including Hedge’s 150) that GN winners post an RPR>OR4 or more that season. This was 5 until Ballabriggs lowered it. The three lowest RPR>OR figures have been posted by winners in the OR150> bracket. Party Politics 5, Dont Push It 6, Ballabriggs 4.
#298
January 11th, 2012 16:48
Correction, including Hedgehunter’s 150, it would be 3/4 lowest RPR>OR figures had been posted by winners in the OR150> bracket.
#299
January 11th, 2012 17:59
crisp,
From looking at Pablo’s old post your figures are perfect except he had RPR145 for Red Marauder.
Maybe Pablo will help you with the *when* & *what*
#300
January 11th, 2012 18:16
Ewarwoowa
post 251/253
your posts must have been held up.
I would guess Ballabriggs might get more than 5lbs.
Silver By Nature is out injured.
A.P. I’m sure will be on Synchronised if he runs, don’t know about the other 2 lads.
#301
January 11th, 2012 19:13
Crisp
DPI was 160 not 159 – so he was +7 not +6 (it was revised)
Red Marauder – was 145 that season (2 chases before) and 152 10 chases before (but it was a freak race his GN win)
Numbersixvalverde’s 146 was in last race
Bobbyjo was 123 2 chases before
Papillon was 115 in final chase before GN
Royal Athlete was 141 in final chase
Ballabriggs was in final chase 149
#302
January 11th, 2012 19:19
hello everyone,
I’ve had trouble posting today and last weekend, anyone else had a problem?
#303
January 11th, 2012 19:47
Would think BJG would be on Shakalakaboomboom
Ruby – not sure
AP – hopefully on Quiscover Fontaine (or perhaps Ruby will ride!) – don’t fancy Synchronised myself off that weight and hopefully AP won’t either
#304
January 11th, 2012 20:14
now i think I’m invisible too!
I think they won’t run Sync if AP doesn’t ride.
If Bazza rides Shaka I’ll have to reconsider him.
If Ruby rides Midnight Club again, which by his comments last yr I seriously doubt, I will back it!
I won’t bother writing anymore as it may disappear again, but its tempting.
Graham you know what I think about niche, new chances and new tactics
#305
January 11th, 2012 20:43
I can see you.
I had a problem with posting during Becher week. Held up for 5 days – thought I was barred.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Sync does not run in GN.
#306
January 11th, 2012 20:45
Highest chase winning OR V GNOR
146; V 148; Seagram = +2
149; V 153; Party Politics = +4
152; V 153; Miinnehoma = +1
161; V 155; Royal Athlete = -6
151; V 152; Rough Quest = +1
139; V 149; Lord Gyllene = +10
157; V 147; Earth Summit = -10
122; V 142; Bobbyjo = +20
140; V 139; Papillon = -1
135; V 140; Red Marauder = +5
137; V 136; Bindaree = -1
130; V 139; Monty’s Pass = +9
131; V 139; Amberleigh House = +8
142; V 144; Hedgehunter = +2
126; V 138; Numbersixvalverde = +12
132; V 138; Silver Birch = +6
139; V 139; Comply Or Die = 0
140; V 148; Mon Mome = +8
147; V 153; Don’t Push It = +6
140; V 150; Ballabriggs = +10
#307
January 11th, 2012 22:44
Not great for Junior that stat, Miinnehoma
#308
January 11th, 2012 23:02
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Sync does not run in GN”
Agreed and would be happy to have a small wager on that. Every chance he will have a hard run in the Gold Cup.
#309
January 11th, 2012 23:15
“Highest chase winning OR V GNOR”
Fascinating new info – many thanks miinnehoma.
Last 15 years bar Earth Summit on 157 (one of my biggest GN wins in the mud)HIGHEST chase winning OR has been:
122 to 147 (its that top figure i find interesting).
Last 15 years bar Bobbyjo on 122 (one of my biggest GN wins in the mud)LOWEST chase winning OR has been:
126 to 157
130 to 157 (if we exclude both Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde).
Worth checking a few runnesr against these scores.
#310
January 11th, 2012 23:26
Hi Systemsman,
I don’t have the information to hand but would be very surprised if a statistically significant number of horses have run off 157+ in the past 15 years. The very classy types don’t seem to line up these days – a number of the 1990s Gold Cup winners ran at Aintree. Who was the last Gold Cup winner to do so?
Bobbyjo ought to have been rated 7-10lbs higher than he was, as the British and Irish weights were out of kilter at the time, Irish chasers being raised across the board a month or two after his National.
#311
January 11th, 2012 23:31
Sorry misread the post – 147 not 157 was your cut-off point.
#312
January 11th, 2012 23:37
Mike Campo
“This is why most recent national winners had shown only moderate form that season prior to the weights being fixed.”
Dont think thats right. Ballabriggs was on a roll during the season and went from OR140 to OR150 and won the national.
#313
January 11th, 2012 23:39
Thanks for all the info Miinne and Pablo.
I was wondering what Mon Mome’s RPR was in his last race? His OR is 145. Doesn’t look like he’ll run until after weights are out now. I would have thought he’ll carry 10-11 or may be less now unless the handicapper has an Aintree factor present for him.
KJ, you’re definitely not invisible. I can see your posts.
Big races coming up for Blazing Bailey and Prince De Beauchene in the next couple of weeks. Both have very good GN stats.
#314
January 12th, 2012 00:08
Mon Mome rpr 151 in last race
Pretty sure Balabriggs didn’t run in a chase until after the GN weights were out – he was OR 150 after winning the Kim Muir
#315
January 12th, 2012 00:39
Mike N,
I understand what you mean but he only won two class 4 nov hurdles that season prior to the weights being puplished and his chase handicap mark was unaffected. That had been unchanged since his win at cheltenham at the previous festival.
#316
January 12th, 2012 08:41
Horses from voting page
Highest handicap-winning OR; Horse
161; Neptune Collonges
155; Midnight Chase
152; Notre Pere
152; Planet Of Sound
150; Ballabriggs
150; Synchronised
150; The Minack
149; Deep Purple
148; Alfa Beat
148; Mon Mome
146; Beshabar
146; Carruthers
145; Siegemaster
145; State Of Play
140; Always Right
140; Cappa Bleu
140; Shakalakaboomboom
139; Le Beau Bai
138; Prince De Beauchene
137; West End Rocker
136; Niche Market
136; Poker De Sivola
135; Galaxy Rock
135; Skippers Brig
134; Junior
132; Giles Cross
132; Organised Confusion
130; Fine Parchment
130; Uncle Junior
127; Any Currency
127; Merigo
127; Sunnyhillboy
124; Oscar Time
116; Beautiful Sound
—; Baby Run
—; Becauseicouldntsee
—; Chicago Grey
—; Fair Along
—; Killyglen
—; Knockara Beau
—; Long Run
—; Quiscover Fontaine
—; Tail Of The Bank
—; The Midnight Club
—; Tidal Bay
—; Western Charmer
#317
January 12th, 2012 08:56
Hi Kj.
Very interested in your ‘The midnight club’ Ruby walsh statement after last year. Can you remember what he said? I dismissed his chances last year and thought he was very bad value because: only two prep runs, only 8 carreer chase runs, only second season chaser and raised 9lbs for second in Thyestes chase that year.
However, despite this I thought he ran a good race after two major spates of interference. His handicap mark should come back down this year, he’ll have the right level of experience this time and if they get 2+ more runs into him (not confident) coukld be a major contender!
#318
January 12th, 2012 10:16
I agree with this about TMC and is still my no.1 choice with no alternatives emerging so far this season. I’d be interested in the Ruby quote too!
#319
January 12th, 2012 11:05
Pablo,
Yes, Junior at the moment is up against it with a diff of +19 unless he wins a chase before GN. Bobbyjo had +20 but then he was in the lower OR140’s bracket. It seems +10 or +12 should be ok up to around the 150 mark but I think many had run well off their new higher mark before GN.
WER has a +12 diff at present and has yet to run off his new mark. So, I think he needs to prove himself (top 4) before GN, not only off the 149 but on better ground in a valuable race – he has won a 5K & 3k chase on good.
#320
January 12th, 2012 11:50
“Highest chase winning OR”
miinnehoma can you confirm your stats relate to ANY highest case winning OR prior to GN win? Or do you mean only HANDICAP Chase winning OR? prior to GN win? Keen for a fast reply if possible – thanks.
Using highest chase win OR (any type):
This means that Junior is safe as his highest chase winning OR so far was 134.
Highest chase winning OR V GN OR varies between -10 and +20 (so Junior on +19 is still safe – just). If we subtract the bottom and top figure we would be left with -1 and +12 (13/15 trend and looks safer to me. So excludes Junior so far on +19).
I am looking for runners with have 130 (13/15 trend) and 147 (14/15 trend).
#321
January 12th, 2012 11:55
Should say:
“I am looking for runners with have a highest winning chase OR of 130 (13/15 trend) to 147 (14/15 trend AND preferably a Highest chase winning OR V GNOR of -1 to +12 (but -2 to -10 and +13 to +20 not totely excluded but a negative all the same). Now who in the top 20 or so does that leave?
#322
January 12th, 2012 12:09
Using Pablos list (for Highest handicap-winning OR) the GN winner would into this list.
Highest handicap-winning OR 122 to 147 (14/15 trend):
146; Beshabar
146; Carruthers
145; Siegemaster
145; State Of Play
140; Always Right
140; Cappa Bleu
140; Shakalakaboomboom
139; Le Beau Bai
138; Prince De Beauchene
137; West End Rocker
136; Niche Market
136; Poker De Sivola
135; Galaxy Rock
135; Skippers Brig
134; Junior
132; Giles Cross
132; Organised Confusion
130; Fine Parchment
130; Uncle Junior
127; Any Currency
127; Merigo
127; Sunnyhillboy
124; Oscar Time
Just need to now look at these in relation to “Highest chase winning OR V GN OR varies between -10 and +20″ (with -2 to -10 and +13 to +20 being a negative but still considered at this stage).
#323
January 12th, 2012 12:44
Systems,
I used highest chase winning OR. Pablo used Hcaps.
To be honest it’s not really much help, most of the fancied runners are between -3 and +12 except Oscar +26 and Junior +19 but if they win a chase before GN then they will be 0.
#324
January 12th, 2012 13:34
Highest chase winning OR V GN OR
++ = Highest handicap-winning OR 122 to 147 plus -1 to +12 (Highest chase winning OR V GN OR – using current allocated OR).
+- = Highest handicap-winning OR 122 to 147 plus -2 to -10 and +13 to +20 (Highest chase winning OR V GN OR – using current allocated OR).
Highest handicap-winning OR V cuurent OR
146/150 +4; Beshabar ++
(not running)
146/152 +6; Carruthers ++
145/155 +10; Siegemaster ++
145/140 -5; State Of Play +-
140/147 +7; Always Right ++
140/147 +7; Cappa Bleu ++
140/144 +4; Shakalakaboomboom ++
139/140 +1; Le Beau Bai ++
138/143 +5; Prince De Beauchene ++
137/149 +12; West End Rocker +-
136/142 +6; Niche Market ++
136/141 +5; Poker De Sivola ++
135/144 +9; Galaxy Rock ++
135/144 +9; Skippers Brig ++
134/153 +19; Junior +-
132/138 +6; Giles Cross ++
132/145 +13; Organised Confusion +-
130/135 +5; Fine Parchment ++
130/156 +26; Uncle Junior +-
127/131 +3; Any Currency ++
(wont get in race off 131)
127/133 +6; Merigo ++
(wont get in race off 133)
127/142 +15; Sunnyhillboy +-
124/150 +26; Oscar Time +-
So some team top runners no looking so good Junior/West End Rocker and Oscar Time – teams top 3!!!!(and i have backed two anti post!!). On curent OR the following are also unlikley to get into the race Fine Parchment,Any Currency and Merigo and are therefore excluded.
So that leaves us with this short list for the Grand National winner 2012 in Team voting order with Ladbrooks curent price.
The GN winner should be in this short list below with current Ladbrokes price:
33 Always Right (9 votes, 4 Naps)++ 33/1
22 Shakalakaboomboom (6 votes)++ ?(Coral 25/1)
17 Niche Market (6 Votes, 1 Nap)++ 33/1
9 Prince De Beauchene (2 votes)++ ?(Coral 33/1)
6 Siegemaster (2 votes)++ not quoted
6 Carruthers (2 votes) ++ ? (Bet365 33/1)
4 Le Beau Bai (2 votes)++ ? (Coral 33/1)
4 Galaxy Rock (1 vote)++ ? (Betfred 25/1)
3 Skippers Brig (2 vote)++ ?(40/1 where lsited)
2 Cappa Bleu (1 vote)++ 33/1
1 Giles Cross (1 vote)++ 33/1 wher lsited
(will he get in of OR138)
I have excluded in the lsit above those with a +- score(like Junior)but i will post a seperate list of these later as they cannot be totely excluded.
Points to note:
The Grand National handicpper may allocate a higher or lower OR than the current OR so we need to reasses after weights out.
The is still time for a runner to win a Handicap Chase and ipprove his winning Han Chase OR (Junior maybe?)but not many will do this now.
Have to say my list dosnt look right to me so i will do the post a longer list which includes those with +- and well as thsoe with ++ seen above.
Anyone know the plans for Carruthers a top class runner (won Hennesy 2012/4th Gold Cup 2010) and running off just OR 152 – one to consider striongly if hes in? views team (can he do 4.4f?)??
#325
January 12th, 2012 14:45
Re:Carruthers after his Hennessy win.
“Sara Bradstock, Oaksey’s daughter and wife and assistant to Carruthers’ trainer Mark Bradstock, said: “He’s absolutely full of himself and doesn’t seem to have had a race. The Welsh National would be the plan.
“On soft ground he’d have a shout [in the Gold Cup], but you do not often get it. However, there is not much else for him at that time of year.”
Carruthers is 50-1 with Coral for the Gold Cup, bigger than the 25-1 to 33-1 odds on offer for him for the Grand National, but Bradstock warned the eight-year-oldwas “very unlikely” to be entered for the Aintree marathon.”
What is odd about this statement is that his form is by far better on Good ground than on Sft or Heavy – check the record. I hope he is at least entered so we can see what weight he is allocated. Has a good profile for the race if he lasts the distance and in my opinion will be better on Good ground. His best chance is this year running off OR152 making him at least 14lbs lighter than Synchronised if the handicapper is kind to him that is. A very, very progressive runner (season before last)who is returning to his top form this season just the type to win a GN.
Messaage to owner/trainer – GO FOR IT!!
#326
January 12th, 2012 15:24
Didn’t he pick up a slight injury in his last race? Or was found to be not 100% afterwards. He’s also quite a small horse. Perhaps they meant that, on good ground he would just tear off and burn himself out?
#327
January 12th, 2012 15:38
Systems,
If ++ = Highest handicap-winning OR 122 to 147 plus -1 to +12
Then West End Rocker should be on your final list.
OR137 Hcap win & +12 diff.
#328
January 12th, 2012 15:44
POST 142
CARRUTHERS will be given some time to recover after requiring some stitches following Tuesday’s Coral Welsh National.
“He got struck into very badly behind and he needed six or seven stitches in his back leg,” said Bradstock.
“He seems fine, but I don’t think that gluey ground helped in any case. Luckily he was pulled-up early.
“There’s not a lot of options for him at the moment – there’s the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January but that’s going to come too soon.
“He’s going to need a bit of TLC first anyway.”
#329
January 12th, 2012 16:08
mick campo re;317,
ruby said something like “he didnt take to it or really enjoyed it” and that it was hard work or something very similar to that effect.hope this helps.
#330
January 12th, 2012 16:17
Ruby said The Midnight Club put his leg in the first ditch and scared himself he was never going or comfortable after that and nearly got brought down by Killyglen on the second circuit.He never enjoyed any of it.
#331
January 12th, 2012 16:49
Just going through some info now on GN.
…..
no. of chases/ % which were h’caps
Party Politics 14/50%
Minnehoma 9/44%
Royal Athlete 16/44%
Rough Quest 23/70%
Lord Gyllene 10/70%
Earth Summit 25/64%
Bobbyjo 17/71%
Papillon 24/63%
Red Marauder 14/86%
Bindaree 15/40%
Monty’s Pass 41/76%
Amberleigh House 37/65%
Hedgehunter 11/55%
Numbersixvalverde 10/60%
Silver Birch 13/62%
Comply Or Die 14/57%
Mon Mome 24/88%
Don’t Push It 12/42%
Ballabriggs 12/58%
………….
no. h’cap chases / wins
Mr Frisk 13 – 4 (incomplete)
Seagram 26 – 9 (incomplete)
Party Politics 7 – 2
Minnehoma 4 – 1
Royal Athlete 6 – 1
Rough Quest 16 – 3
Lord Gyllene 7 – 3
Earth Summit 16 – 4
Bobbyjo 12 – 4
Papillon 15 – 4
Red Marauder 12 – 4
Bindaree 6 – 0
Monty’s Pass 31 – 6
Amberleigh House 24 – 3
Hedgehunter 6 – 2
Numbersixvalverde 6 – 3
Silver Birch 8 – 3
Comply Or Die 8 – 1
Mon Mome 21 – 3
Dont Push It 5 – 1
Ballabriggs 7-3
(Only Grittar-2- ran in less than 4 h’caps since 1970)
……………….
no. of runs at 25f or more/ wins
Mr Frisk 7 – 2 (incomplete)
Seagram 15 – 4 (incomplete)
Party Politics 8 – 3
Minnehoma 8 – 3
Royal Athlete 14 – 5
Rough Quest 8 – 2
Lord Gyllene 6 – 2
Earth Summit 18 – 3
Bobbyjo 6 – 3
Papillon 8 – 1
Red Marauder 3-0(5th in Hennessy 27f)
Bindaree 8 – 2
Monty’s Pass 3 – 0( 4th in 25f hunter chase, never ran beyond 25f)
Amberleigh House 8 – 2
Hedgehunter 7 – 2
Numbersixvalverde 2 – 1
Silver Birch 15 – 5
Comply Or Die 10 – 3
Mon Mome 18 – 3
Dont Push It 5 – 1
Ballabriggs 5 – 4
(38/42 won at 25f or more)
#332
January 12th, 2012 17:07
Hi all. Just seen this on RP regarding JUNIOR’s GN prep and BACKSTAGE.
David Pipe’s Junior is building up towards a racecourse return as connections plot a route towards the Grand National at Aintree in April.
The classy nine-year-old has completed a rare double during his career by winning the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival.
He was last seen finishing down the field in the same Royal Ascot prize last June and is set for a return to the track in the near future.
Although he has been given an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Tim Palin, racing manager for owners Middleham Park Racing, does not expect him to line up if Long Run and Kauto Star are in the field.
“We gave him the Gold Cup entry mainly in case something happens to one or both of the big two. If that were to happen, the race would obviously be thrown wide open,” said Palin.
“Junior is in good form. We gave him a super-long break after Royal Ascot, where he was a bit disappointing, but we felt he was maybe a bit over the top having had a hard race in the Kim Muir.
“Hopefully he’s going to come back fresh and well and David feels he is physically much better now than when he went out into the field.
“We have a few options for a comeback run. There is the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock on February 18.
“He wouldn’t want very testing ground but if it happened to come up good to soft, he could well run in that.
“If we miss that there is the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which is after the weights for the National are out.
“There is also the option of running in a race at Kelso that Ballabriggs ran in last year before he won the National, so we have options.
“If for some reason none of those races were suitable, I suppose he could have a spin round in the Gold Cup as there is an extra week between Cheltenham and the National this year.”
Another potential National contender for Middleham Park is Gordon Elliott’s Backstage, who was well beaten in the race when well fancied last year.
“He has been point-to-pointing and the plan is for him to run the Foxhunter at Cheltenham,” Palin added.
“He might have one more run in a point-to-point between now and then and we’ll see how he gets on.
“I’d imagine he’ll run in the Grand National again, but I think the days of us getting excited about Backstage running at Aintree are behind us.
“My gut feeling he is he just isn’t quite classy enough for the race, but hopefully he might get in with a decent weight.”
#333
January 12th, 2012 17:44
crisp
That first one is a cracker since the race is the mother of all Hcaps.
no. of chases/ % which were h’caps
Lowest – Bindaree with 40%
That blows out Deep Purple with 6% and Planet Of Sound with 15%
#334
January 12th, 2012 18:04
Mandie and Graham.
Thanks for the response. It will be interesting to see if they enter him for a second bite of the cherry this year!
#335
January 12th, 2012 18:06
crisp,
If your figures are 100% correct then it’s bye, bye, Oscar and Chicago.
#336
January 12th, 2012 20:05
Anyone else having a problem with the RP website on iphone4? When I go to look at the website it now downloads the phone APP not the full site. The app is crap.
#337
January 12th, 2012 21:01
HI GANG,looking forward to JUNIOR’S prep run,david pipe is a top trainer who know’s how to train a GN winner,he has had the GN earmarked since JUNIOR galloped them in to the ground in the KIM MUIR, david pipe is one shrewd cookie….C’MON JUNIOR..
#338
January 12th, 2012 21:14
I still cant get my head round a royal ascot winner winning a GN lol. He may not stay 4m 4f. Interesting that when he ran over 28f he weakened but in the kim muir he had them beat a long way out with his superior speed and was able to take it easy in the home straight.
#339
January 12th, 2012 21:19
Despite your stats Systemsman I like Oscar Time and West End Rocker at this point.
Always Right is top of votes when the Scottish National is his target lol.
And forget Carruthers, hes a pony!
#340
January 12th, 2012 21:44
I heard John Wade say other day that he might only get one crack at winning the National so is seriously considering it Mike.
However more worrying for Always Rights supporters (of which I am one) was his stinker of a run he through in at Wetherby
#341
January 12th, 2012 21:57
“miinnehoma
January 12th, 2012 15:38
Systems,
If ++ = Highest handicap-winning OR 122 to 147 plus -1 to +12
Then West End Rocker should be on your final list.
OR137 Hcap win & +12 diff.”
My mistake WER should have been on that final list with +12diff. Now that list looks a bit better!!
Will update the list soon including both ++ and +- and also listing those in the list who meet the Pre Jan 1st trends.
#342
January 12th, 2012 22:10
Post 331 once gain great stats (lots to work on) and new thinking from Crisp 73.
no. of chases/ % which were h’caps
So MINIMUM required for last 15 years is:
Chase runs 10 (so around 7/8 chase runs would be the minimum now ONLY if two/three more runs planned)
% of chase runs that were handicaps: 40%
Remember these are minimum requirements! This will rule a few out for sure.
#343
January 12th, 2012 22:12
Thanks for that valuable piece of information on TMC, Graham, a horse’s mental state is every bit as important as his physical and if he didn’t like the experience then just might remember and not give his true running.
Unlike the Niche who loves Aintree (and it shows ) however his best run according to the RPR figures was when he was second to TT in the Aon. My conclusion is a horse needs to be at his best for a national, hope he can find that improvement for you.
#344
January 13th, 2012 00:57
Mike N see post 341 on WER (i like him too and he is one of my three anti post bets so far).
“And forget Carruthers, hes a pony!”
Does a pony win the Hennessy in 2012 and come 4th in the Gold Cup in 2010? I think not and an OR of only 152!! (also meets all the pre Jan 1st stats).
#345
January 13th, 2012 08:12
Hi Systemsman.
Re Carruthers being a pony; is Mike N referring to the size of the horse?
I backed him for a few pounds at 300-1 this time last year but he wasn’t entered. I wouldn’t eliminate on size alone as he is a good, nimble jumper. I’m more worried that Phil Smith will add extra weight for his Hennessy win and wouldn’t back him until I know he will be entered. Otherwise, he has strong Form and statisticss profile
#346
January 13th, 2012 09:05
West End Rocker to me seems to do well in the mud. Is there any decent form without those conditions by him as the probability of those conditions on April 14 is slim to none in my humble opinion.
#347
January 13th, 2012 09:31
Hi Aldaniti&Spartan missile.
W.e.r beat cornish sett over 27F at Newbury on Good together with second to Shining Gale at warwick over 25F on Good. I think Phil smith may give him extra weight for winning The Bechers chase and therefor making him badly handicapped with The Niche for the National.
I still think The Niche is one of the best current antipost options but I’m very worried about the effect on its handicap mark for a good run at Exeter two days prior to the weights being framed.
#348
January 13th, 2012 09:57
Thanks for bringing that form to my attention Mike C will evaluate it in my quest for this year’s winner
#349
January 13th, 2012 11:30
The smallest horse to win the GN was – 1938 Battleship – 15h & 1 inch.
There’s nothing really new in this race, everything has been done before, FR, Age, Wt, etc it just a question of time when it will happen again. Last year Ballabriggs busted our wonderful C1 chase Top 3 stat that lasted many years by pulling a fast one in not ever running in a C1 chase or even hurdle.
So, this year %Hcap wise I do hope we don’t have a ’82 Grittar type on board because that 40%+ stat looks a cracker – time will tell.
#350
January 13th, 2012 11:42
Re: Carruthers
“Mike Campo
I’m more worried that Phil Smith will add extra weight for his Hennessy win and wouldn’t back him until I know he will be entered. Otherwise, he has strong Form and statisticss profile”
Fair point, cant back him until i know hes entered and his allocated weight. He does have great stats/trends though as you agree. So we will have to sit on this one a little longer i think.
#351
January 13th, 2012 12:27
Hi Miinnehoma.
Absolutely right, exceptions to every rule!
I’ve had a lot of success over the years by following approx half a dozen Key stats including placed efforts in Key pointer races: Hennessy, Irish & welsh nationals and efforts over National fences but this let me down in last two years. I had a saver on Dont push it as JJ o’neil had come close before with horses that hadn’t contested these but Ballabrigs caught me out completely. I had majored on Character building who jumped into fallen horses at Bechers first time around and came to a standstill, & Oscar time at 40-1 & 33-1.
#352
January 13th, 2012 12:29
Cont: I just hope that non participation in these races to protect handicap marks isn’t becoming a new trend!
#353
January 13th, 2012 12:54
I remember last year when Graham announced that Niche Market was to run in that seasons Hennessy and we warned him that the Hennessy winner had a poor record in the national. Placed horses are another matter. Although statistics are made to be broken surely this is a statistical minus point for Carruthers (if he’s entered at all, which I doubt it
) . He is in my humble opinion more of a Cheltenham horse.
Mike C Character Building is sired by Accordion who has not yet sired a stayer, or at least one that can stay 4 miles. Me6 (Gerrard) brought this to my attention last year, and I know the same was said of Presenting but I found evidence that he did have a few stayers at that distance (including Niche Market in his early days at Cheltenham festival ). Presenting dosage also indicated staying possibilities as Busted is his grand sire and a excellent sire for stayers himself.
#354
January 13th, 2012 13:17
Very interesting on Accordion. I wish I had seen that last year. Re carruthers; The problem is in the past,Phil smith has massively overreacted to horses winning the Hennessy and the Becher chase and the weight per distance ratio is magnified over the gruelling national compared to standard 3 mile chases. I think that is the reason behind the stat. Who knows what Phil will do this year!
#355
January 13th, 2012 13:51
I’ve turned my router off and on again
lets hope its that simple and I’m allowed back in the room…
Character Building was definately a 4-5mile horse and that makes him a stayer in my book.
Had ‘bad luck’ in the race last yr when brought to a standstill stepping over fallen horses. Maybe he wouldn’t have won, as he was too slow to start with and being anywhere back from mid division is a serious problem if you don’t have a turn of foot and even if you do its unlikely as seen with SOP… Graham take note!….
but I don’t think what we saw in CB was easily dismissable because of his sire, I think this was just a consideration and you have to ask why he can’t win a staying race, the answer is between having too low a cruising speed and consequently higher likelyhood of bad luck in running a race like the GN not of his own making.
Having said that I do like a good staying sire and the one that concerns me with all his progeny this yr over 4m4f is Kayf Tara.
#356
January 13th, 2012 15:36
According to Gerald Accordion offspring was the first ones he crossed off his list. although I must admit that this he told me on the Racing Forum website.
While this can always be broken, I think I’d want to factor in a good price for this disadvantage.
First glance at RPR the a lot to like about Synchronised although will know more when the official entry list is known.
#357
January 13th, 2012 21:21
West End Rockers career form on good or faster is 212P1B. The P was when it got Firm ay Ayr and that wont happen at Aintree because they water like mad.
#358
January 13th, 2012 21:30
Carruthers may have the stats but mark my words when I say that he wont get round (IF he runs). He just isnt the right type for Aintree because of his size coupled with his free going nature, hopefully John Oaksey and co. will look after the horse. I got nothing against the horse and i’d like him to stay in one piece, I backed him in last years hennessey and a couple of other races last year when he was clearly not right.
#359
January 13th, 2012 22:18
Handicap chase runs at 24f or more; wins
Party Politics 7 – 2
Miinnehoma 3 – 0 (3rd Welsh National)
Royal Athlete 6 – 1
Rough Quest 9 – 3
Lord Gyllene 6 – 3
Earth Summit 16 – 4
Bobbyjo 10 – 3
Papillon 8 – 1
Red Marauder 3 – 0 (5th Hennessy)
Bindaree 5 – 0 (3rd Welsh Nat, 5th Hennessy)
Monty’s Pass 7 – 1, won 51k h’cap chase
Amberleigh House 13 – 2, won 29k h’cap chase
Hedgehunter 5 – 2, won 34k h’cap chase
Numbersixvalverde 6 – 3, won 100k h’cap chase
Silver Birch 8 – 3, won 58k h’cap chase
Comply Or Die 7 – 1, won 30k h’cap chase
Mon Mome 18 – 2, won 57k h’cap chase
Dont Push It 2 – 1, won 43k h’cap chase
Ballabriggs 5 – 3, won 33k h’cap chase
#360
January 13th, 2012 23:13
going to be difficult to predict who’ll be top weight and what top weight will be because synchronised is trained by jonjo and much as I like him his comments about future targets should be treated with caution – makes ap betting v difficult imo
#361
January 13th, 2012 23:33
One race one bet for me tomoz….Neptune Equester in the classic chase. Fits all the stats and looking forward to seeing him run a big race.
Trainer wants to go to Aintree this year, hes currently 40/1 for the GN. Really like his profile for the GN. Needs to win this I feel for that big chase win and get his OR up.
Heres what his trainer says about tomoz and GN….
Neptune in Classic frame
(UKPA) – 4 days ago
Grand National hope Neptune Equester could take his chance in the Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick on Saturday.
The nine-year-old showed stamina in abundance when winning an attritional contest at Haydock on his penultimate start and he was not disgraced when fifth in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
Trainer Brian Ellison is keen for his charge to increase his rating to enhance his chances of getting a run at Aintree and a good showing at Warwick would aid his cause.
“We’ve put him in there and we’ll have a look at the race and make a decision later in the week. There aren’t that many options for him,” said Ellison.
“He ran well enough at Wetherby. They just went too slow for him and all he does is stay. Ideally he could do with a bit further as well.
“He’s won over three and a half miles at Haydock, so you’d think the trip on Saturday would suit him well.
“He’s rated 136 at the moment and we’d like him to go up a bit as the race we really want to go for is the Grand National. We have the option of the Scottish National as well, but we’d like to go to Aintree.”
Neptune Equester is one of 17 entries for this weekend’s Grade Three handicap, with last year’s winner West End Rocker an absentee as expected.
David Pipe has Faasel, Shaking Hands and Sona Sasta all engaged, while other interesting contenders include potential top-weight Hey Big Spender, Key Cutter, Blazing Bailey and the 14-year-old Hello Bud.
#362
January 14th, 2012 14:54
i suppose the run of major malarkey in the classic today will put deep purple’s victory into perspective. a lot of people saying it was a poor race but only time will tell.
#363
January 14th, 2012 18:10
Didn’t think much of Neptune Equester, but Tommo (like he does) was trying to chalk up Hey Big Spender for the Grand National, so how does he stack up?
#364
January 14th, 2012 18:18
Colin Tizzard has already said he won’t be in the national off his expected new handicap mark of 160.
Some of these talked about horses looking more unlikely to get in the race now, any currency, Neptunes Equseter and beautiful sound, they need to win something in the next two weeks.
#365
January 14th, 2012 19:12
Graham
The Aintree press release on the conditions covers the main terms only. Are the entry fees and forfeit dates similar to 2011?
#366
January 14th, 2012 19:51
ESB
Something similar to last year.
31st Jan. Entries
14th Feb. Weights announced
28th Feb. Forfeit date
20th Mar. Forfeit date
9th April Forfeit date
12th April Decs.
#367
January 14th, 2012 20:31
Thanks Graham – a much bigger gap between second forfeit and confirmation this year. Is the fee structure the same – £800; £1000; £1100; £1600?
#368
January 14th, 2012 23:28
hi gang,anybody got any news when ALPHA BEAT is due out, also what do the natives think his chances are for 2012 GN……on my shortlist been nibbling at the 33′s…….any views people.
#369
January 15th, 2012 02:09
Hello Graham. I’m actually getting very excited about Niche’s run this year
For the first time with hopefully a mark 7lbs lower I see him as a genuine threat. I have loved your horse since his Irish win, but have had this mental block with him not seeming to get those extra GN 4 or 5 furlongs. But this weight shed could hold the key. You deserve it with your (and his) dedication to the greatest race on earth.
Couple Q’s Graham:
1- Are you worried with a nice run on the 12th that it could put up Niche’s ratings?
2- Obviously there may be those with potentially more firepower at the GN finish – with Niche’s (hopefully) 7lbs lighter this year is the plan to grind down the firepower in the hot competitors so that it is nullified when the end comes in sight?
#370
January 15th, 2012 11:07
Showlad,
Just to answer your questions.
Firstly, we will have a look at what is entered up in the Exeter race before deciding whether to run or not. It’s not set in stone so can be bypassed if needs be.
Secondly, we all know The Niche is’nt blessed with a finishing burst so he will have to try and grind away in the race. we have a good idea of what way we would like to approach the way he runs but I doubt he will be hanging around from the start. His record in big handicaps off light weights is great and we know he jumps around Aintree. With a bit of luck he could be there or there abouts.
It is a real privilege to own a horse like him as he has brought us so much pleasure and enjoyment. But to be even involved in a race like The Grand National is an unreal experience for a one horse owner.
#371
January 15th, 2012 11:27
Hey folks thought i’d just drop in. I see you havent given this years winner a vote on the table
haha
have to admit the GN is a race i’m beginning to ‘fall out of love’ with, especially now these changes have come in. I’ve written a few times to the BHA with very little response (they seem completely clueless) The lowering of the fences seems completely daft and will create even more carnage! Also imagine if last years gold cup winner wouldnt have been allowed to run. i wont even go into the whip changes, wont be any jockeys left to ride at aintree after what i suspect may happen at the festival
hi Graham, once again best of luck with the Niche, he ran a blinder last year. Whats your take on the changes?
FWIW i think willie mullins has an incredibly strong hand for aintree
TC
#372
January 15th, 2012 12:45
TC – which of Mullins’ horses do you like best?
#373
January 15th, 2012 13:00
Graham – thanks for the replies. If you don’t mind me saying please watch Niche doesn’t ruin that lovely 7lb drop in weight – would be crazy if he runs a blinder at Exeter and has that advantaged halved.
Re pleasure and unreal excitement you hit the nail on the head. This amazing race steeped in history is the one event that virtually every human drops all for 10 minutes and has everything from a work’s sweep ticket to a keen interest in. It really is such a wonderful iconic ocassion full of nostalgia, epic stories and emotion. We’re lucky to have you on here – thanks for sharing
I’ve always been honest re Niche and that extra trip, but this drop in weight could just be the KEY. I’m going to be wear broody mother hat now – please just go for a race AFTER the weights come out
Team – heading out now – but could anyone throw up accounts of winning GN horses like that of Niche’s profile – who ground down the field to win – as they knew they wouldn’t have the firepower of some at the finish.
Would make interesting reading.
Have a lovely day all
Hey TC
Spill the beans – who’s your GN winner?? Re fences – changes SO minimal won’t make any real difference imho. Just safer take-offs and safer landings which is good for all. Keep your GN faith my friend 
#374
January 15th, 2012 13:48
Fancied him for the race last year, was really surprised he got pulled out in favour of stablemate Our Monty. This time around he’s been campaigned over much further, getting plenty of mileage into him. I can accept he wouldnt be a typical GN profile, but the horse is a model of consistency over a variety of trips and has proven himself at Aintree. It’s Scotsirish, this fella should take his chance although trying to second guess Willie Mullins is impossible!
He’s also got another couple, Cooldine, who has shown very little this year, but is incredibly well handicapped due to not running in ‘suitable’ races this year, an end to end gallop over the GN trip, should really suit. I was getting ready to load up on Prince de Beauchene at Chepstow, and Quiscover Fontaine would have to be of interest if its not a year too soon for him. Fair to say he’s got a decent hand!
Are they making the fences safer by making them smaller and raising the landings? They’ll be going even quicker
#375
January 15th, 2012 14:33
Galileo, re Alfa Beat, I was looking at his profile the other day. Started the season on a handy OR 148, trainer shouldve kept it over hurdles, ran in the Kerry National and won it. OR 158 will make it tough.
#376
January 15th, 2012 14:34
TC – have backed Scotsirish for X Country and had small bet on Quiscover Fontaine for GN
Cooldine is interesting but I’d need to see some enthusiasm for the game first
#377
January 15th, 2012 14:35
A lot of Niche Market fans about lol. I think getting placed is a possibility, maybe top 5. Cant see him winning as he doesnt get home after the last.
#378
January 15th, 2012 14:36
I think Shakalakaboomboom is interesting on proper good ground:
+ GN confirmed as target by trainer
+ Weight will be no problem
+ Handicapper who’s won every time he’s been 3m+
+ Big-field handicap win
+ Sighter round the course
+ Improving all the time
+ BJG likely to be on board
- Nagging doubt is – is he classy enough?
Any thoughts about Shaka out there?
#379
January 15th, 2012 14:49
pablo – Agree about Cooldine needing to show something, but i doubt he’ll do that in Ireland on heavy ground, or being held-up off the pace in slowly run affairs. Perhaps could come over for the billyhill on the first day of the festival.
theres one horse to take out of Shakas cheltenham race, I’m not sure where he goes next or what the im is, but it might be touch and go whether or not Knockara Beau will get into the race. Also might want to try a proper jock on him!
#380
January 15th, 2012 14:59
TC – Knockara Beau is frustrating – always stays on well at end of his races – and let’s face it his RSA form is not to be sniffed at – but hasn’t won for more than 2 years which is a problem for me – can see him placing after being outpaced
#381
January 15th, 2012 15:33
Hmm – Just being doing some more studying and one horse I left out my voting which seems to have been a faux pas is Midnight Chase . Anyone else like this one ?. He’s got an awful lot going for him . Won over 3m 3.5 f , won / placed in class 1 chase , won oodles of handicap chases in fields of 16 or more. A likely handy runner . If synchronised runs sureley this fella will have a weight under 11-5 and deserves a crack at the race. I just hope he doesnt go and win the argento.
#382
January 15th, 2012 16:00
Stayer – one to watch out for on weights day for sure – soft ground Argento and he could be dropped a couple of pounds too
#383
January 15th, 2012 18:17
I think you mean Silver not Stayer
seven towers is dead keen on Scotsirish, I prefer no comment for now hee hee, as I confuse Scotsirish with er Siegemaster for some reason?!
Good to see you and good to have you back TC
just testing to see if this posts and the next saved one from a few days ago.
#384
January 15th, 2012 18:21
oh! well don’t want to get too excited, I’ve been allowed to post one before on this thread,… so I’ll try another. No point in me going into Scots if it just disappears after writing you understand
#385
January 15th, 2012 18:39
well that reworking of something I wrote earlier failed to post …..testing testing
#386
January 15th, 2012 20:57
TC – KJ and I fans of ScotsIrish…buiggets problem would seem to be Willie lettiung him run…
Silver Birch – I am a big fan of Midnight Chase – 2nd top of my Round 1 votes:
“5 points goes to MIDNIGHT CHASE
A TOTAL CLASS ACT who clobbered Junior in the Morson chase at Chelts last Nov by 9 lengths giving him 12lbs and will only give him 8lbs this time round”.
#387
January 15th, 2012 21:38
* sorry Silver Birch – wasn’t paying attention
#388
January 15th, 2012 21:42
no worries pablo –
. Yeah TC I watched his Cheltenham victories again this afternoon and I love the way he grinded the rest of them into submission from the front and beat Junior fair and square, I may have it wrong but I think as you say TC hes likely to be even better off again against Junior if they run off their current marks . V interesting high class chaser whose a tad under the radar at the mo . Deserves a whole lot of respect although I wouldnt b surprised if they go down the Gold cup route again fishing for place money
#389
January 15th, 2012 21:45
Sorry It was Showlad
Sorry Showlad its been a long weekend 
I’ll b keeping an eye on this fella in the Argento ..I agree with you . Great chance.
#390
January 15th, 2012 23:35
MIDNIGHT CHASE does look interesting (another Gold Cup runner like Carruthers [who appears snot to be heading for the GN from the looks of the GN anti post market)) but current OR 158 is a bit high but like others have stated i guess it all depends on his allocted weight -one to keep an eye on for sure (the right weight and i would be on).
#391
January 16th, 2012 17:48
hello
#392
January 16th, 2012 18:28
synchronised heading for the Hennesy in Ireland on feb 12th ………….. 5 weeks after that is the gold cup or 9 weeks after the hennesey is the national ………… the hennesey is thereabouts 9 weeks after the Hennesesy .so maybe a gold cup tilt would come to soon?
#393
January 16th, 2012 18:28
hennesey is thereabouts 9 weeks after the lexus sorry.
#394
January 16th, 2012 18:32
Shakala is in my top 6 profile wise only concern is the trip and whether he will act round aintree when the going gets tough as he’s a bit gangly looking.
#395
January 16th, 2012 18:33
Shakala is in my top 6 profile wise only concern is the trip and whether he will act round aintree when the going gets tough as he’s a bit gangly looking..
#396
January 16th, 2012 21:01
His 1 yr before & Xmas stats looked good, his run in the Hennessy wasn’t that bad but that was a woeful run by Blazing Bailey on Saturday, he should have managed a top 3 place at least. I think this lad has spent too much of his career over hurdles, which would be a little bit odd for a GN winner – it takes a hatter to make a hat.
What weight will Phil give Ballabriggs OR160.
I doubt if he can change the 11.10 back to 11.12 without 12 months notice so Sync OR168 will carry no more than 11.10 but on what OR. The last 2 years Phil has taken 8 lbs off the top OR horse – Neptune 168-160 and Exotic 174-166 – which at present would leave Sync on OR160. But what if Sync wins the Hennessy on Feb 12th, he will then be in the 170 bracket and Ballabriggs could then be on 11.08 or less which would make him more dangerous to leave out. I was hoping that both would be on 11.10 and could write them off. On the other hand JP rarely has a Gold Cup (wide open this yr) class horse so if Sync wins or goes close at Cheltenham then there’s no way he will run in the GN and I reckon Ballabriggs & Tidal Bay should end up with Top Wt. on 11.10 – mighty.
#397
January 16th, 2012 21:55
hi all love this site just wonderin what ye think about vic venturi former course winner grade 1 placed and winner of an irish point to point yesterday
#398
January 16th, 2012 23:23
Hi aj new to this site.
VV was well liked by me and from the impression given a lot. 2 years ago a lot thought that he had too much weight, I thought he had a real chance, though. Not heard much since and don’t know if he’s entered this year, but one not to dismiss lightly if he was.
#399
January 17th, 2012 00:49
Vic Venturi had OR156 in last year’s GN and is now down to OR144 which should help – not one for me.
Mon Mome
THE 2009 John Smith’s Grand National winner Mon Mome could continue his preparation for this year’s race in Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock after featuring among 18 entries for the race on Monday.
Shakalakaboomboom also down for the race.
#400
January 17th, 2012 16:52
Highest ever chase OR V GNOR
Range -10 to +13
-10 Earth Summit, +13 Bobbyjo.
154; 152; = -2 Mr Frisk
154; 148; = – 6 Seagram
153; 153; = 0 Party Politics
157; 153; = – 4 Miinnehoma
163; 155; = – 8 Royal Athlete
151; 152; = + 1 Rough Quest
148; 149; = + 1 Lord Gyllene
157; 147; = – 10 Earth Summit (won Welsh Nat that season)
129; 142; = + 13 Bobbyjo
145; 139; = – 6 Papillon
143; 140; = – 3 Red Marauder
140; 136; = – 4 Bindaree
137; 139; = + 2 Monty’s Pass
139; 139; = 0 Amberleigh House
142; 144; = + 2 Hedgehunter
135; 138; = + 3 Numbersixvalverde
142; 138; = – 4 Silver Birch
148; 139; = – 9 Comply Or Die (won Eider that season)
148; 148; = 0 Mon Mome
155; 153; = – 2 Dont Push It
150; 150; = 0 Ballabriggs
Mon Mome at present 161 – 145 = -16
Mon Mome’s last race was a cracker – 2nd with top wt 11.12 @ 27f C2 chase worth 12K – posted RPR151 (best RPR162, 3 seasons back but out injured for 18 months).
#401
January 17th, 2012 17:45
on sky website : http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/news/12426/7439072/Weird-Al-given-National-entry
#402
January 17th, 2012 18:31
Hi all
been a week or so but thats due to the fact that chemo is still sh*te lol
Lots happened. DPI retires. Have a long and happy one. I feel people didnt give credit that his run last year( faster time and under bigger weight) was prob.better than his win.
Conditions for the race published: Would love to get some opinions on now giving prize money down to 10th(was 8th). Surely this would encourage jocks (under instruction) to keep well beaten and prob. exhausted/hurting horses going to maybe get the owners their entry fees back. Surely flies in the face of making it safer. The days where an exhausted horse was kept going for the glory of getting round should be firmly in the bin.
D.Pipe has mapped out Juniors campaign. I am holding 66/1. No bias here then!
Saturdays chase at Warwick was no pointer as the winner wont be entered and Faasel and Blazing Bailey proved to be the donks we suspected. And NTD dont you think Hello Bud has done enough and deserves to chew the grass with DPI?
I am hoping to be at Haydock on Sat so will report back. Do think Mon Mome is looking a good ew bet for GN. Shakalaka has been taken out(Sat race) but rewatched last years Topham and nothing there to inspire apart from fact he got round….He wasn’t staying on at all…going backwards if anything.
Noted VV and his Pointing successes. Also that Backstage has run up a 5 timer in same. But he disappointed badly in GN last year. Can’t see it changing.
Anyone got a date for when entries are closed/published?
For fun the 1993 Foxhunters in on Youtube. One D Pipe, D McCain and Alice Plunkett (of Ch 4 racing) all take part and the gallant Alice does best with a mid div 11th!!
Keep em all coming folks. Always a pleasure.
#403
January 17th, 2012 18:41
Actually Graham if you have time what would be your take (as an owner) knowing that the money goes down to 10th? Would you want your lad to be ‘punished’ to get home 9th or pulled up at Valentines if all chance of winning/place had gone?
I think I know your answer (good man!) but they may not all be like you…
Noted 31st Jan for entries. Thanks for the info.
#404
January 17th, 2012 18:51
None of the six winners aged 11 or 12 from 1990 onwards recorded a GN-winning RPR above their previous best RPR – which makes sense because they’re probably too old to improve much beyond their best (Seagram was born in August in NZ so was a younger 11yo than most)
Only one of the past 15 winners has recorded a GN-winning RPR less than 12lb above its GN-winning OR and that was Red Marauder in the joke race (how do you possibly judge form in that ground when only 4 finished!?!)
Putting those two together means that the following horses aged 11+ from our voting list would appear to have it all to do… (unless they run a blinder before GN)
Ballabriggs
Oscar Time
Siegemaster
Skippers Brig
The Midnight Club
Tidal Bay
Uncle Junior
#405
January 17th, 2012 20:23
PABLO,
Maybe you could help me with this. For highest ever chase OR I was using the winners profile on the Racing Post but I’ve just noticed that Earth Summit won a chase Off OR157 in Jan ’95 but in his next race instead of having a higher OR he ran Off OR154 – what’s afoot.
Would you know if he ever had a higher OR than 157 before winning the GN.
04Feb95 San 25Sft C1HcChG2 19K 11-9 PU/11 (Deep Bramble 11-10) b 9/2 Jamie Osborne OR154 * *
21Jan95 Hay 24Hy C1HcChG2 15K 10-4 1/4 (1¼L Chatam 10-7) b 7/1 T Jenks OR157
#406
January 17th, 2012 20:30
Miinnehoma
From what I can gather he was 11lb out of the handicap with a 3lb claimer on board – so bottom weight was 10’7. However only 4 horses ran in the race and the only horse in the handicap proper ran off 10’8. Bizarre.
#407
January 17th, 2012 20:46
Thanks Pablo, strange one.
#408
January 17th, 2012 21:00
#375…THANKS MIKE,it is going to be tough off OR 158,ALPHA BEAT has earned it and the handicapper wants to keep on the right side of him,he stays forever,runs up with the pace,only negative I can see is he wears blinkers,his first KERRY NATIONAL win was excellant but his second KERRY NATIONAL win with an 11LBS rise has to bring him in to the equation……Is KERRY NATIONAL a valid national trial,BOBBYJO won it before his GN win or was it MONTY’S PASS?
#409
January 17th, 2012 21:09
Monty
Ballabriggs -
The 11-year-old’s trainer Donald McCain has pinpointed Kelso’s Premier Chase on March 3 as Ballabriggs’ last run before his April 14 date at Aintree, as it was ahead of his 2011 National triumph under Jason Maguire.
But Haydock’s Rendlesham Hurdle could precede that if McCain feels two runs are necessary for Ballabriggs to be at his absolute peak as he tries to become only the eighth horse in history to win the National on more than one occasion.
The gelding carried 11st to his superb victory over Oscar Time last year and McCain realises he will probably be lumbered with second top weight for his repeat bid should Synchronised be entered.
He said: “I would be fine with Ballabriggs being top weight. My father always told me that having top weight in the Grand National means you’ve got the best horse, and to just make sure that you get him spot-on for the big day.
#410
January 17th, 2012 21:21
HEMMINGS HOLDS BALLABRIGGS BELIEF
pointed to the fact that the gelding has few miles on the clock in terms of the amount of actual races he has contested.
“In order to counter the extra weight he’ll be given to carry, he will need to improve, but I would say there is definitely some improvement in him,” said Hemmings.
Last year’s winning time is also giving Hemmings further hope that Ballabriggs will put up another bold showing.
He added: “It was the second-fastest time in the 164-year history of the race.
“Realistically though, I think April 14 will be the day when maybe I hand the trophy over to somebody else.”
#411
January 17th, 2012 21:39
McCain
He said: “I always presumed that we would be top weight for the Grand National this year but when I spoke to Phil Smith [BHA handicapper] the other day he said that Synchronised would be if he turned up for the race.
#412
January 17th, 2012 21:50
folks, not sure its been mentioned here, but Meanus Dandy has died. Just in case anyone is tempted by fancy prices anywhere as he has been entered previously
#413
January 17th, 2012 21:53
I do like Vic Venturi, but I’ve always been of the opinion that a National winner is either a horse that has never ran in it before, or has ran the previous year and fallen/been brought down, but shown that he took to the fences. I thought Backstages’ connections had ruled out the race [or maybe they're just trying to get a better price?]. Either way, I think I’d have to have a small ew on Vic; I’m sure Seven Towers has always been sweet on him from a breeding point of view. Wonder how the whip rules could/will change the result? Winning horse will have to stay the trip. Other than Vic, I’ll have an ew on West End Rocker; very much aimed at the race. Worried that a lot of horses are having races that could ruin their handicap mark. Need to watch out for the shrewd trainers that are doing the opposite. Bovril; agree about Hello Bud; was surprised to see him in another race..the thing is, he runs and jumps his heart out still. By the way, has anyone heard how Ollie Magern is now, after his injury last year? Do hope he’s on the mend.
#414
January 17th, 2012 23:33
Hello Bovril
Keep up the good work 
Think this year there will be a much smaller list of real contenders for the GN crown whereas last year there were many possibles. Think this year is much clearer
#415
January 18th, 2012 05:54
I see Don Mc is going to give Weird Al an entry then….
Interesting…..
Thoughts anyone or do we assume weight will be against?
#416
January 18th, 2012 08:05
Pablo I wudnt trust RPR when disecting the GN field. Stick to the OR stats. Oscar Time could easily do an Amberleigh House this year and win after being placed. And totally agree with Maureens post – horses tend to win the race on either their 1st or 2nd runs so all you vic venturi, niche market,Mon mome and state of play fans….don’t spend too much lol.
#417
January 18th, 2012 09:08
Mike N, I think the reason we use RPR so much is because we want a reliable yardstick to measure the ability of the runners. Other than that you have to make up your own ratings. Which probably might be more accurate if you get it right, or misleading if you’re no good at making ratings.
OR is related to their weights.
At least that’s the way I see it.
#418
January 18th, 2012 09:17
Hi Mike N.
Amberleigh House won on 3rd attempt. On second attempt, after being brought down in 2001, he tried to win after running 14 days previously. History says need to have last run between 4 to seven weeks prior to GN. Winning year was simply better preperation as was case for Mon Mome and Hedgehunter who had less than 4 runs the previous, non winning years. Last year, most of field with other stats, had less than 4 runs, presumably due to bad weather. Niche with 4 or 5 runs this campaign & less weight, should improve on last year!
#419
January 18th, 2012 09:38
Hi Graham.
Re previous post. Footballers say that no amount of high tech training can compensate for the fitness levels and automatic mental reaction time/ agility attained through playing regularly. I suspect this is true for horses attempting the GN, with loose horses and fences offering different individual challenges together with different stamina challenges. Regular monthly racing, including hurdles seems to benefit horses markedly. Any Thoughts?
#420
January 18th, 2012 10:15
To some extent you are right, but proper National horses are like human marathon runners. you can’t go to the well too often or you will wreck them.
some horses love jumping and others adapt to it as best they can. but in the National it’s the culimination of everything, stamina, ability, bravery and the will to win.
#421
January 18th, 2012 10:32
Amberleigh House was fortunate that Clan Royal’s jock ballsed it up at the elbow
#422
January 18th, 2012 10:58
Thanks Graham. Interesting that no horse has won with more than six prep runs! I fully accept your point on the need for stamina, ability, bravery and the will to win. However,I believe that ‘match sharpness’ improves the horses ability to handle the unexpected in the GN, like a striker reacting quickly to an unexpected ball. I always try to find the reason behind such a strong statistic. I think The Niche has all the right credentials to win this year with the 4 runs and the lower weight. He is currently my No1 hope. I greatly appreciate your interaction and your willingness to keep us informed. Very best of luck.
#423
January 18th, 2012 11:30
Not a problem,
I personally think The Niche is always prone to be beaten by a horse who has a kick in the finish. But The Niche has a great record in big handicaps off a low weight. Whether he gets tired after the last is another question which needs to be answered but we have a very good idea of which way we want him ridden this year which may work.
we live in hope !!!
#424
January 18th, 2012 11:44
I always believed that the best prepared and best handicapped chasers who didn’t idle through hitting the front too soon, usually had that extra effort up their sleeves at the end of long distance chases and that the turn of foot at the end was because they hadn’t used up all their reserves by then. Weight/ Prep is key?
#425
January 18th, 2012 11:51
Think prep is specific to the horse – some horses win first time up or after a lengthy break and others need longer – Clan Royal almost won after 3 months off – if his jock had watched a few more videos and realised where the winning post was he would have done
Judging by his form Niche Market always needs his first run back after a break so I wouldn’t be too disheartened should he run down the field in his next race – you may get a better price for GN on Betfair after the race!
#426
January 18th, 2012 12:12
Hi Pablo.
I partly agree in that some horses run best fresh but I think this disadvanteges them when trying to win the GN. If clann royal, state of play etc had not needed to be kept fresh,would they have won? I think 37 out of last 40 GN winners had 4 to 6 prep runs since end August. One exception over half the field ran from out of the handicap, another nothing with a better profile finished in the heavy ground. Also the improved showing of horses like Hedgehunter,Mon Mome,amberleigh house etc with the better prep their winning year. My slight concern with Niche, out of Presenting is if he doesn’t truelly stay but I’m with Mcoy that they have to be ridden as if they will. I guess we’ll find out this year!
#427
January 18th, 2012 13:16
Mike; I agree totally with what you say..the problem with a horse like Vic is that, when you’ve backed a horse year after year you worry that the year you miss is the one that he wins! He’s also getting abit old now and, as for being unlucky in the race, I guess that true ‘National’ types [eg Rummy] make their own luck! Vic’s also getting a bit old now, but it’s taken a long time for the handicapper to give him a chance, having clobbered him a few years back. However, I’m not sure that he was ever as good as his stablemate, Black Apalachi, and he wasn’t quite good enough. But, I do think the new whip rules mean we ned to look for a horse that will stay forever [or a jockey that will risk a ban and, given that the race is after Cheltenham, they probably will!
#428
January 18th, 2012 13:18
Days since last run; number of preps(1st September, not inclu point2points)
Gay Trip 16 ; 6
Specify 84 ; 5
Well To Do 36 ; 5
Red Rum 28 ; 8
Red Rum 28 ; 7
L’escargot 42 ; 4
RagTrade 42 ; 5
Red Rum 28 ; 7
Lucius 28 ; 9
Rubstic 18 ; 7
Ben Nevis 33 ; 5
Aldaniti 52 ; 1
Grittar 16 ; 4
Corbiere 23 ; 8
Hallo Dandy 21 ; 4
Last Suspect 25 ; 3
West Tip 23 ; 4
Maori Venture 22 ; 5
Rhyme N Reason 23 ; 8
Little Polveir 29 ; 8
Mr Frisk 25 ; 6
Seagram 23 ; 7
Party Politics 35 ; 4
Miinnehoma 23 ; 2
Royal Athlete 35 ; 4
Rough Quest 16 ; 6
Lord Gyllene 23 ; 6
Earth Summit 35 ; 5
Bobbyjo 24 ; 6
Papillon 20 ; 6
Red Marauder 42 ; 6
Bindaree 25 ; 6
Monty’s Pass 20 ; 4
Amberleigh House 28 ; 5
Hedgehunter 49 ; 6
Numbersixvalverde 27 ; 6
Silver Birch 32 ; 4
Comply Or Die 42 ; 4
Mon Mome 20 ; 6
Don’t Push It 23 ; 4
Ballabriggs 35 ; 3
#429
January 18th, 2012 14:01
Thanks Crisp73
My memory bank must be curupted!
#430
January 18th, 2012 15:02
Look how many prep runs Rummy used to have! Cast in granite, he was.
#431
January 18th, 2012 15:11
So 13 from 41 winners (or 31%) have been outside the 4 to 6 runs band
#432
January 18th, 2012 15:14
Team Spirit and Little Polvier both won on their 4th attempt.
I know, I know 2 in the last 48 years not a great stat but not too many run in a 4th GN….unless a previous winner.
GRAHAM: Can I ask your opinion on the prize money now going down to 10th? As in if all chance of a win/place gone for your lad say 2nd Canal would you want him kept going for a legless 9th or PU and looked after?
I personally think its a bonkers move…and many a horse who should have been PU will be kept going…
#433
January 18th, 2012 15:33
No thoughts on Weird Al then?? Anybody…??
How about Hold On Julio for 2013??
I think I asked this last year, but has is The Great Yorkshire (now the Skybet at Donny)been a decent pointer in the past?
Fairly certain Nicolaus Silver won it in his GN year (when the GN was run 3rd Sat in March so ‘proper’ jumping ground…sigh…) but yep thats ancient history…
#434
January 18th, 2012 15:56
re Strong Gale
Brendan Powell mentioned on The Morning Line last weekend that down the years Strong Gales have often had breathing problems and such problems can be hereditary. Perhaps this accounts for Strong Gales weakening with a few fences to jump in GN
He also mentioned the breathing op that a couple of Henderson’s Cheltenham horses had recently (cauterised palate) and said that these ops normally work quite well but sometimes the effects only last for a few months
#435
January 18th, 2012 17:53
Bovril, all bloggers. It’s a bit of a hobby horse of mine but there a re big differences pre 1990 GN to post 1989 GN. I think it’s all to do with the general lowering of the fences
after 1989.
Take that won GN at 4th or more attempt. In the 21 GN before 1990, L’Escargot, Red Rum twice, Little Polveir won at 4th attempt or more while West Tip twice, The Pilgarlic, Red Rum got into the frame. 1990-2011 no horse has got in to the frame at it’s 4th or more attempt.
Extend that to 3rd or more GN attempt. Something like 17 horses, 5 won, 1968-1989 got into the frame at their 3rd or more attempt, 1990-2011 that figure drops to 8, 1 won, and that’s including Party Politics lining up in a void GN.
I think nine 12 yr olds made the frame 68-89, just four from 1990-2011.
The times of the GN post 1989 are something like 15-20 seconds quicker on average. I still think a relatively lightly raced 11 or 12 yr old can take the spoils but I reckon, generally, and especially if the going is good, we are looking for a horse, say, that could win a very average ‘Hennessy Gold Cup’. A very classy handicapper, good strike rates, can win a top handicap at 24f-25f and probably won a few bob along the way.
(The alternative to that is the Welsh/Irish National type who gets lucky with the handicap and is carrying 10-5 or thereabouts; Bindaree, Numbersixvalverde)
Irish trained. Looking at the last 21 GN’s in terms of average OR of the field, there was no Irish trained winner when the average OR was 145 or higher. Bobbyjo’s was 144 (over half the field were out of the handicap that day?) and that GN was the 11th out of the 21 in terms of highest average OR. But looking at the eight GN’s with the lowest average OR, the Irish won five of those.
#436
January 18th, 2012 19:15
You are not wrong Crisp and I agree pre 1990 is ancient history… Didnt Brave Highlander run 4th at his 4th attempt in early 2000′s… I could be wrong….
Cant seee Carruthers doing the business tho….and it was an average Hennesey… and think Syncronised will have lumps put on his back now…
Junior will have a very Ballabriggs profile…Chelt the year before and light prep for GN…
Looking back at horses like Wyndburgh (late 50′s early 60′s) 2nd 3 times 4th twice and fell once… when the course had to be jumped and on proper ground that took some staying…knocks a lot of recent winners in to a cocked hat really…
#437
January 18th, 2012 19:19
Which brings me back to Weird Al….nobody offering any opinions now Don Mc has said he will enter him as big gap between Gold Cup and GN….??
#438
January 18th, 2012 19:21
hi bovril 111 i have backed weird al at very nice prices on betfair not sure if i should lay now or wait till after gold cup
#439
January 18th, 2012 19:50
Bovril,
I would want The Niche pulled up and to be looked after if the other runners had vanished into the distance and I would expect whoever rode the horse to always look after him regardless of how low the prize money went to.
This great race has been tampered with, altered and adjusted. Can it just be left alone and let it settle down again. They are’nt going to slow down this year with the fences been lowered but drowning the ground may do it. I personally can’t see the going being any better then good to soft.
#440
January 18th, 2012 20:52
Maureen I think the year that Vic Venturi got brought down was the year he couldve won it. He probably isnt destined to win it, a bit like Clan Royal.
Looking at Crisp’s prep runs list my theory that you need minimum 3 prep runs and a race in the same year holds up pretty well as only 1 has broken the rule of thumb in the last 20 years.
Having said that times might be changing. Horses are just being kept in their boxes now more than ever until the weights come out so getting 3 runs into them after would take some doing. It’ll be interesting to see what the prep run stats end up being in the next 20 years.
#441
January 18th, 2012 22:43
Hi Bovril III you’re asking for opinions about Weird Al. I think apart from his novice hurdling days he is untried in large fields so might not like/ be used to the large grand national field that you get.
Some horses only show their form in small fields while others nurture on huge fields.
Synchronised might be a gold cup horse now instead of grand national.
#442
January 18th, 2012 22:45
crisp; hasn’t the handicapper got wise to the Irish horses now, and seems to be giving them more weight? I’m thinking of the last few years.
#443
January 18th, 2012 23:10
Back to the future ….
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 136 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under (OR155 as a guide for now?)
won over at least three miles
run in at least nine chases
won a chase worth at least £20K (29k is 9/9 but prizes have dropped last 18 months)
Deep Purple
Scotsirish
Majestic Concorde
Carruthers
Calgary Bay
Chicago Grey
West End Rocker
The Midnight Club
Always Right
Mon Mome
Arbor Supreme
Prince De Beauchene
Exmoor Ranger
Always Waining
Fair Along
Killyglen
State Of Play
Le Beau Bai
Backstage
Bluesea Cracker
Baby Run
… anymore?
#444
January 18th, 2012 23:15
Update ..
Deep Purple
Scotsirish
Majestic Concorde
Carruthers
Calgary Bay
Oscar Time
Big Fella Thanks
Chicago Grey
West End Rocker
The Midnight Club
Always Right
Mon Mome
Arbor Supreme
Prince De Beauchene
Exmoor Ranger
Always Waining
Niche Market
Fair Along
Killyglen
State Of Play
Le Beau Bai
Backstage
Bluesea Cracker
Baby Run
… anymore?
#445
January 18th, 2012 23:32
Thanks Graham. Could have done with you shouting for that ground for Silver By Nature last year!!
I actually think you boy is a good thing for decent place money and will cross everything on the day for him.
Good to know you see it as all but pointless to extend the prize money so far down. Hope all other owners/jocks are as objective as you.
AJ and Neil(A&SM):
Comments appreciated. Don Mc seemed quite keen on him doing the GC GN double. Might take a lb or 2 off Balla as even with Phil S. tinkering he would have to rate Weird Al above Balla.
Landed a nice touch on Glens Boy today and a young progressive staying chaser (tho idles infront!) worth keeping an eye on for 2013…
Means I can go to Haydock Saturday on a freebie!!
#446
January 19th, 2012 00:18
crisp73 just love your stats – keep um coming!
West End Rocker – now if the handicapper gives the Becher Chase winner half a chance for once (and why not) he must have a chance if he runs to his best on the day. At this point in time he looks every bit as good as Junior/Oscar Time or Synchronised (in fact he looks better this side of the weights coming out) – meets many if not all the key stats. Views team? What are his week points?
#447
January 19th, 2012 02:43
His dire run at Haydock last year off low weight in ground he is supposed to enjoy.
Plus with it being a summer National this year cant see him getting his ground.
Other than that….:)
#448
January 19th, 2012 11:00
Forget his Haydock run last season…..he’s just won the BEACHER CHASE this season by 22 lengths, was enjoying the GN last year before being BD, he has his best RPR of 155 not only on a left handed track but at Aintree and all his wins have come left handed, not to mention he fits pretty much all the stats!!! He has the class needed to win the GN. CURRENTLY there is no better qualifyed horse for this years race, he must be in everyone’s top 6?! I think West End Rocker (at this stage) will win the GN 2012 btw!!!! My colours nailed firmly to the mast!!
Junior interesting but worried about lack of runs. Always Right, has a great chance but is Scot Nash his aim? Sync, will not win as he’ll be too heavy and GC is more for him. ScotsIrish, Beautiful Sound, not for me.
#449
January 19th, 2012 11:12
WER… And provided Phil don’t take the micky when allocating his weight! Currently 149. Be kind Phil!
#450
January 19th, 2012 12:01
last year my thoughts were (re WER)
West end rocker – just cant get my head round this one. Only one piece of class A form, PU in Scottish national, not obviously trained for the race. Just don’t get it.
following the Becher he must be on the shortlist. my only thought would be he does seem to throw the odd poor run in for no reason.
#451
January 19th, 2012 12:10
chicago grey,one of my early fancies plus a few others due to run at gowran park next thurs. 26th 3m grade a.one of them is becauseicouldntsee, who i am watching with a degree of interest.
#452
January 19th, 2012 12:14
Steady Matriarch, steady, we don’t want the price to go through the floor – we could have a rambo run on our hands.
#453
January 19th, 2012 12:37
More thoughts on West End Rocker.
He ran the becher Chaes on OR 137 and is now OR 149 so thers is no reason for Phil to penalsie him more and Synchronised being in (If he is) can only help his GN weight. It looks a real posability he could get 11.00 (with Synchronised 11.10 being allowed to run of OR 163 [-5]and WER would be on nor more than 11.00 [on OR 153 +4] or possibly even less!! Howver WRR ran in alst years GN on OR141/10.05 so a lot more work to do.
On 11.00 or less he must be to 3 material on any short list.
He does throw the odd bad set of races but he can also do the oppsosite see:
Bad:
PU/BD/PU 19.02.2010 to 12.11.2010 but note he had wins both before and after this bad run.
Good:
2/1/2/2/3/2/1/2 19.02.2008 to 18.08.2009
Won over 27f and 29f and won C1 56k chase (Becher Chase at Aintree)- a GN key race.Has a 1/2/3 this season (unlike Junior so far). It would be hard to find a better profile. The key must be the weight he runs off on GN day (lets hope Synchronised stays in).
Note he has won on Good ground(twice) and i dont think he will have a problem with Gd/Sft which is what i am expecting.
Until Junior gets a 1/2/3 (which i think he wil)WER has to be my NO1.
#454
January 19th, 2012 12:38
I need that spell checker!!
#455
January 19th, 2012 14:14
WER = potential day of the race bet for me
West End Rocker has won on good ground but a 3-runner race where the RP report states “The form is meaningless” and a Class 3 handicap where the only danger fell 5 out
However, West End Rocker on rain-softened ground (like No6 or Mon Mome had) would interest me
Otherwise I think on good ground off GN OR 149+ he might find at least one or two too good – by my calculations he’ll have to run RPR 161+ to win (that would be 20lb+ better than he’s ever run on good ground before, but only 6lb+ better than he’s managed with rain in the ground)
#456
January 19th, 2012 15:38
Hey Mandie
WER definitely is scraping, hook or by crook lol, up my estimations. Has more makings of a gritty place for me than win but defo has to be considered.
The main stat to change for me this year is WEIGHT. A cracking low weight could see this instrumental to Niche Market doing well, which is in keeping with stats. However, and the stats are moving this way the last couple of years, the main change will be the top weights doing INCREASINGLY BETTER.
Mark my words a top weight 11’10 or near top weight 11’8 or so in Synchronised, Midnight Chase or Ballabriggs could EASILY win the Grand National 2012
#457
January 19th, 2012 15:47
Never understand people conveniently ignoring bad runs. At Haydock (forget SBN) Carruthers has the beating of WER although as has now won Hen. Carruthers will be burdened by weight….if he runs….
Also we so rarely have proper jumping ground, let alone soft with heavy patches then the Becher Chase form (apart from proving he jumps the course) is a hill of beans. On good ground even The Niche will reverse that and as much as I can see The Niche running 4th-6th ish then that leaves WER for the minor minor money.
If it rains can see the reasons for backing him.. but if it rains could be prohib. short so you would have to risk a/p now and isnt ‘long’ enough for me….
#458
January 19th, 2012 15:57
Mandie:
Noted. One of interest currently down the weights in that race but has turned form around recently is Treacle. Def. a race to watch.
#459
January 19th, 2012 17:54
Some good points of WER Team – plenty for me to think about.
#460
January 19th, 2012 18:18
WER will be fine on the watered ground come April. I’ve backed him and Oscar time. Had a bet on becauseicouldntsee before the season started and hoping he does something good on the track soon. I doubt I will have any more punts on the race. That’s a 9 yr old, a 10 yr old, and 11 yr old rated 150, 149 and 140. Just need to get to the race fit and well and we will see.
#461
January 19th, 2012 18:34
My mistake Mandie:
I was looking at the Leopardstown Chase on 28/1/12 re Treacle. BecauseICouldn’t is entered in that race also.
#462
January 19th, 2012 18:36
Pretty sure that they watered last year but it was clearly good to firm by the off (although they daren’t say it for PR reasons – same as at Cheltenham when Long Run won on really fast ground but the going is still down as ‘good’)
A lot depends on temperatures on the day and whether there’s any rain about – the course dries so quickly at that time of year
#463
January 19th, 2012 18:38
GL Mike.
That was the point made about SBN last year but softer ground horses cant go the pace the GN seems to be run at now esp. as the fences dont stop horses these days…. so there will always be 5 or 6 too quick.
Oscar Time depends on the weight for me. As the team knows I had a cheeky double on amature winning GC and GN last year and Sam W C was a couple of lengths off winning me a fortune!!
My view on Because is he runs for Nina C…..but they have taken the ride off her…
#464
January 19th, 2012 18:56
In the Theystes week today keep an eye on Ted Walshes horse (Seabass). Has run up a five timer (inc a P2P) and sounds a very improving sort….
No idea if he plans to run it in GN (or if it will get in on current rating) but one to note…
#465
January 19th, 2012 19:44
I could see with the weights that Synchronised will get 11 10, Ballabriggs 11 7, Oscar Time 10 11, WER 10 10, Becauseicudntsee 10 1. Then once the weights go up after Synchronised taken out they will go up 3 lbs.
Weird Al wont run the GN as he will run in the GC and will run pretty well in it I reckon.
#466
January 19th, 2012 20:20
Sad news. Beautiful Sound has had to be put down due to a cancerous growth in its leg.
#467
January 19th, 2012 20:48
becauseicouldtsee is running in the thyestes on the 26th
#468
January 19th, 2012 20:52
sad news about BEAUTIFUL SOUND and ALPHA RIDGE RIP you’ll be missed.
#469
January 19th, 2012 21:08
Don Mc quoted earlier this week that Weird Al will be in both because there is 4 weeks gap.
If you are right with the weights then no contest Oscar v WER unless wet.
Slingshot…Because also has entry 2days later at Leopardstown.
#470
January 19th, 2012 21:47
Bovril last gold cup winner going on to grand national glory is Golden Miller, I think
, same season.
L’Escargot won a few years after his dual gold cup wins.
#471
January 19th, 2012 22:02
Bovril
Just back Weird Al on March 16th
I’m trying to get some firms to price up doing the double
#472
January 19th, 2012 22:14
some great opinions would love to see oscar time with 10 11 anything under 11 stone would be a bonus also really hope weird al makes both races remember rough quest and he had only 16 days between both races
#473
January 19th, 2012 22:19
sorry meant great opinions in previous comments not mine
#474
January 19th, 2012 22:59
Rough Quest was second in his gold cup behind Imperial Commander, before he won his grand national. While Garrison Savannah just lost out to Seagram after winning his Gold Cup, so beware of history on this with Weird Al.
Talking of history been reading about Golden Miller win in 1934 as a 7 year old. He had useful form at park courses , so maybe if we could draw some parallels there it could help if we like any 7 year olds.
#475
January 19th, 2012 23:34
Golden Miller won the Gold Cup aged 5 – not too many do that these days…
I notice a few people have followed me over the edge with Shakalakaboomboom, but I’m beginning to have second thoughts. At the end of last season, he looked like a nice National type in the making, but has not been gathering the experience in the first half of this season I hoped he would – one run round Cheltenham in a small field will not have taught him much, and he is now beginning to look like he will be a bit inexperienced come April.
#476
January 20th, 2012 00:03
yes saw that bovirl i like prince de beauchene for the thyestes chase
#477
January 20th, 2012 00:04
On handicapping alone (OR 140) Knockara Beau appears to be the standout on his Novice form (RPR 158 in very strong RSA) and placed form in handicaps plus he’s won a handicap hurdle over 25f off 148
Also charges up that Cheltenham hill and stays on in majority of his races
Worrying things for me are that he doesn’t travel consistently well throughout his races (gets outpaced once the race starts in earnest and then runs on), he hits the odd one, don’t know anything about his trainer and his jockey is 0/49 this season! Also not sure whether he’s going to GN.
Still have taken some 90+ on Betfair for an interest
#478
January 20th, 2012 01:13
OR149 down to OR140, good overall strike rates, 14 chases with 3 wins but only 4 Hcaps. Good novice runs, 2nd to all the big names – Diamond Harry, Weird Al, Burton Port and 4th to Weapon’s Amnesty in RSA. But needs a 24f+ Hcap chase win worth 20K+ ASAP. Biggest chase win a C2 worth 13K @ 20f and last chase win off OR147 12K @ 23f back in Dec ’09 but only 4 rns. – 11 chases ago. Trainer had 1 chase win last 2 seasons, 8 in the last 5 years.
#479
January 20th, 2012 01:28
got a profile that matches knockara beau with garrison savannah 2nd, miinnehoma 1st, comply or die 1st, snowy morning 3rd (same race as cod) the only qualifiers. also dpi v similar. thats why I had to back him
#480
January 20th, 2012 03:20
Thanks for comments:
I dont actually fancy Weird Al for GC but he might be an interesting GN horse and I have a feeling this year is longest gap ever between the 2 races. Do have a suspicion he might be there to keep Balla down a lb or 2…
Think Miinnehoma ran 7th in GC before GN win too.
Nobody heard anything about Skippers Brig?
Really like the horse and with a bit of give in the ground he could run a big race.
He beat Balla and According To Pete last year and has had a spin just behind Always Right (ScGN 3rd) at Kelso over 22f.
#481
January 20th, 2012 04:16
Skippers Brigg out injured Bovril….
http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/news/12426/7357605/Skippers-Brig-out-for-season
#482
January 20th, 2012 08:12
big shame about beautiful sound so many times if a horse can show strength of character to overcome such adversity they make worthy champions in the big races.
#483
January 20th, 2012 10:24
Weird Al has come into the saddling enclosure distressed before and needed oxygen after a race. He maybe over his problems but he’s shown no form against decent horses in a big field.
Year in year out these GC types with no handicap form are touted for the GN off >11’5 – bookies paradise imo.
Can’t have him at all for the National off a large weight. He’d have to give Knockara Beau 20lb or so for a start…
Lovely horse though and hope he runs well in GC.
#484
January 20th, 2012 13:38
hiya showaddywaddy, how’s it going?
could not agree more showlad, about weight’s/winner. in my opion, and what i am now using is stats adjustments to what we have been using the last is it 4 year’s on here.the race make-up has changed, and think stats back as far as the year 2000 say, read a more up to date picture. mon mome and the niche for instance have a great e/w chance if weighted as being estimated.still think killyglen is my no1 at the mo though.
#485
January 20th, 2012 13:59
Oddshecker site crashes on me all the time, but think I’m going to have an ew on West End Rocker. The only horse so far that I know I intend to back. Think he’s@ 20/1? Should be getting my Jumping Prospects book soon [just a bit late getting it this year!] so I can read up on all the horses. Knockara Beau a strange horse to fathom out; not sure if his problems are in his body or his head.
#486
January 20th, 2012 14:39
Hi everyone.
The problem I’m having in betting antipost at this time is that my six horses together only give me approx 5-1 odds if backed evenly & we don’t know who’s running yet. The layers on betfair seem over cautious and tends not to change much until around Chelt time. Is it just me or has backing antipost for large handicaps thoughout the last flat & into the new jumps season been folly. in 90% of cases where I’ve backed horses weeks in advance I could have backed them at as good or better prices & terms on the day, despite fancied horses not lining up.
#487
January 20th, 2012 15:35
WER it up! … or not to WER it up….;)
its tough to see the value in going for it now AP. Likewise quite a few.
I seem to think he was 33s from the get go?! He is not a horse that I would wait for 5 places for however, I think he will do well or bomb. I think I’ll wait to see the becher penalty and if they run him in a bottomless ground race like last yr, I will be very tentative, he ain’t no Mon Mome 
like Mike says with a horse like WER currently trading at best 20-1 before weights out, before he survives the build up and if it rains too much or too little for him not factored in
Can’t be sure what he was trading at november time, don’t think he had the value ever of… say Synchronized
#488
January 20th, 2012 15:59
Mike Campo
Agree on AP bets the past year – day of the race appears to be the way to go – and predicting the going in advance is almost impossible with clerks acting like a bunch of muppets
#489
January 20th, 2012 16:07
I’ve been thinking about WER a long time now, since jumping the fence about him. Last yr I was unconvinced but he is a proven aintree loving horse now and they will water the course whatever.
When it rained before the becher, I kinda knew Niche would be beaten by him. Fair play to Niche there and agree he is great e/w I just don’t want either of them riden too far back. Odds are far better for front runners aren’t they
As you say Maureen as you say… I will probably back them anyway….. so why didn’t I mid way through the becher then! grrr
#490
January 20th, 2012 16:28
Mon Mome 8-1 tmw,… OR145 if he wins or comes second that will be a negative for the GN in terms of weight but it means he will have won since his GN and make the winning in last 10races stat more upto date. He is tough, but he is 12 now.
Won GN with OR 148 11-0, I am really wondering about him now my top pick 12yr old DPI has been retired. StanJ 50-1, betfair 60s to win. Anyone else wondering before tmw?
#491
January 20th, 2012 17:17
Well, I will always keep faith with Mon Mome. can see him getting placed in National but maybe not winning.
Regarding tomorrow, i think 3m may be on the short side and don’t think he will like heavy going. Maybe a staying on 3rd or 4th tomorrow
#492
January 20th, 2012 17:19
Again, thanks for comments/answers.
I am usually anti GC/GN double …even for GC ‘good prep’ 7th a la Miinnehomma as the races are too close. The thing about Miinne and Rough Quest were that they were ‘thrown in’ after their GC’s and others of more recent vintage (remember the fuss over Fergies horse last year after GC)are burdened…as Pablo pointed out.
I will say that Mon Mome (after an admittedly distant but staying on 3rd in GC) was running a probable 4th-6th in DPI’s GN before it came down after Valentines. Will also say now hope it runs a good prep tomorrow and think Venitia has done a marvellous job to have the old boy running well again and have taken some 50′s e/w. Shame she didnt leave this run till the Haydock GN trial after the weights…grr!!
TY re Skippers: Had found the article last night on Sporting Life.
Mandie: Am with you re Killyglen. As 2 of my 6 in last round of votes are out for season he is creeping up my list. He won a £51k Nv Ch at Aintree a few years back and he took to the course last year. A low weight and cant be dismissed!
As an aside people GET ON Chapoturgeon for Chelt/Aint. Foxhunters (either or both!).You read it here first!
#493
January 20th, 2012 17:25
Knew there was something. Does anyone know if Baby Run is going to stay Htr Chasing or if NTD is aiming him at GN?
Also, any news/sign of Poker De Sivola??
#494
January 20th, 2012 17:31
Poker de Sivola out for the season Bovril.
#495
January 20th, 2012 18:08
Looking extremely doubtful for Haydock tomoz. Really fancied According To Pete tomorrow in the PM.
#496
January 21st, 2012 00:15
KJ I backed WER at 20s. Its near enough 20-1 the field at the moment and its obvious all the fancied horses will be shorter on the day when they come out and run well. You just gotta decide if WER is one of those.
Cant have Mon Mome, hes had his day. Wouldnt put anyone off Niche as a sporting each way. Killyglen is interesting, and if i hadnt already placed my bets he would be one I wouldve considered.
#497
January 21st, 2012 12:45
I really fancied Killyglen last year and he was running a monster of a race at 66/1. The jockey claimed he still had a “lot of horse left”. Clearly been trained for the race again this year and if you check the form of his runs it isnt particularly bad either. I can see him running a big race and is my only bet so far.
#498
January 21st, 2012 14:19
He certainly has the right dosage for the race + the Busted/ Vimy thing on the Da’s side.
KILLYGLEN (IRE) DP = 0-1-3-4-2 (10) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.70
#499
January 21st, 2012 15:50
Good ground is key to Killyglen – if it rains he’s no chance
#500
January 21st, 2012 21:11
Killyglen was No.6 on my voting list but moves up now Beshabar and DPI out. Still worried that he hasn’t won a HCP Chase tho BUT can’t ignore his run in the GN and his jockeys comments afterwards. It did look like a tired fall tho. Tough one.
#501
January 22nd, 2012 12:05
Think seven towers had raised the strong gale issue a few times which wud be a worry for Killyglen
#502
January 22nd, 2012 12:54
Interesting comments by Paul nicholls on twitter about a certain owner promising to ride a certain niche Market naked into winners enclosure if he wins the GN. lol love it Graham
#503
January 22nd, 2012 13:01
Several of us thought Killyglen had a tired fall, but that view completely contradicts the jockeys view.
In a similar way Rubys comments on what I saw as the unlucky yet ‘running on’ TMC may deserve further thought, I have not been able to post the essay I wrote on this due to technical probs
tried to post just the quote… for the ten billionth time… failed again.
#504
January 22nd, 2012 13:03
Lady Godiva style please, Graham …. I wanna see that on the telly
#505
January 22nd, 2012 13:09
haha saw that too Billymag – any comment Graham
How does According to Pete measure up on the stats? His win yesterday would have got his rating up to get him into the GN and I reckon he will take his chance now.
Shame we didnt get a proper run from Mon Mome yesterday but good that no harm done. They are clearly traeting him with kid gloves and he remains firmly on the radar.
#506
January 22nd, 2012 13:12
JEFFERSON DREAMING OF NATIONAL SERVICE
Malcolm Jefferson intends to have According To Pete in top form for a tilt at the John Smith’s Grand National after he showed the right qualities for Aintree with a game win in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock.
The 11-year-old is already enjoying a fine season as he was following up his success in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
Leading a mile out under 3lb claimer Harry Haynes, According To Pete (9-1) got home in determined fashion by three and a half lengths from Pearlysteps with Consigliere third.
“I’ll give him an entry in the Grand National but I don’t know if I’ll bring him back here next month (for the Grand National Trial),” said Malton-based Jefferson.
“He had a hard-enough race here and I want him fresh and well. If he does have one more run before Aintree it might be in an easier race. We’ll see.”
#507
January 22nd, 2012 13:17
Think he’s wanted the horse to run in the race for ages, and it’s all systems go, now. Very impressive.
#508
January 22nd, 2012 13:18
He is Accordian, though….
#509
January 22nd, 2012 15:13
First ever post just got my own laptop.Massive fan of blog have followed for last few years without being able to take part. Live only 4 miles from course. Big thanks first of all to all of you for amazing info.I give away my first winner in name, always spend months studying this amazing race.
#510
January 22nd, 2012 15:38
hello
#511
January 22nd, 2012 15:56
If the GN was tomorrow and judging by what you have seen so far this season, who would your No.1 pick be? (For arguements sake the ground is the usual Good Gd/Sft)
No suprise for me…West End Rocker!
#512
January 22nd, 2012 16:05
Early thoughts on top six 1.Junior 2.Killyglen 3.West End Rocker 4.Oscar Time 5.Always Right 6.Chicago Grey
#513
January 22nd, 2012 16:10
Just seen Gary Nutting in Sunday Mirror tips Cappa Bleu for National am I right in thinking this has Strong Gale in Pedigree ? What do you think of its chances 33/1 Lads today.
#514
January 22nd, 2012 16:46
oscar time
#515
January 22nd, 2012 17:15
always right
#516
January 22nd, 2012 17:18
I really cant decide, its very very open this year. At a push, Western Charmer.
#517
January 22nd, 2012 17:21
Midnight Chase . Remember he was only about 16 lengths behind According to Pete at Wetherby trying to give him 2 stone! . On grand national day ull be lucky if its 7lbs.
#518
January 22nd, 2012 18:19
All these wins over the winter are fine, and the nothing wrong with them as Grand National trials go, but they all on Heavy or Soft ground. The going is likely to be very different in April.
#519
January 22nd, 2012 19:26
If race was tomorrow then the going would be soft or heavy and my number 1 choice on that going is West End Rocker, however the race is in April (just after Easter ) and very likely the going would very likely be good or good to soft (if they water
) my number 1 choice is Planet Of Sound who I think OR is being protected for a tilt at the national.
#520
January 22nd, 2012 19:36
RE, The ground. I know Neil! Thats why I said for “arguements sake” Good/Gd-Sft if ran tomorrow. ;0)
#521
January 22nd, 2012 19:36
Interesting selections tho!
#522
January 22nd, 2012 20:13
However its tempting to trip everyone up (but not fatally ) so Niche can win, so Graham can do his lady Godiva act.
#523
January 22nd, 2012 20:29
Matriarch my observations since joining this site (2 maybe 3 years ago) is that according to their RPR they put in their best work, POS has fulfilled that condition but with not knowing the full list of runners I’m unable to be totally confident about it.
#524
January 22nd, 2012 21:43
I think that I would make Oscar Time my first choice.
#525
January 22nd, 2012 22:07
I think the best horse from last year is probably Niche Market and with the right tactical race could win it. He’s not going to win many races but could still win the right race.
Hedgehunter fell at the last the year before he won and I felt he reached the end of his stamina so missed him when he won. The same thing might happen with NM
#526
January 22nd, 2012 22:37
See my note on Synchronised on the Dec/Jan thred. Time to make some seriuos dosh i think.
#527
January 22nd, 2012 22:49
“If the GN was tomorrow and judging by what you have seen so far this season, who would your No.1 pick be?”
Junior!!!!
Been laid out for this since Cheltenham and has done nothing wrong so far (!!!!!). Still i need to see a 1/2/3 in that fisrt/second race (no 1/2/3 before GN forget it) and would like to see at least 2 prep runs. Otherwise its WER but will he get his ground (but see no problems with Gd/Sft)?
Still need to see the weights to refine my list. Prepared to look at some of the higher OR’s this year as i am ruling nothing out.
#528
January 22nd, 2012 23:42
“Systemsman
January 22nd, 2012 22:37
See my note on Synchronised on the Dec/Jan thred. Time to make some seriuos dosh i think.”
Systems – it’s a level weights Grade 1 race not a handicap for Synch so OR is meaningless in terms of weight carried – his OR could be 145 or 185 and he’d still be carrying the same weight as the other entries
#529
January 23rd, 2012 10:16
killyglen, but would loved to have backed unlikely entrant any currency as he aint going to get in by the looks of things.
#530
January 23rd, 2012 12:30
Thanks Pablo (silly me)but still think Diamond Harry could be a big big danger on the day depending on going etc.
#531
January 23rd, 2012 14:13
BABY RUN –
OR136 (Grittar type + only 2 Hcap runs)
Another one of my early bets that seems to have gone astray. No prep runs yet and still on OR136 so very unlikely to get in unless you know who helps out.
After his 3rd in the Bet365 Gold Cup last year the trainer said –
“It depends on the boy (Willy Twiston-Davies). If he turns pro there will be no point in having a hunter chaser so we might go for the Hennessy”.
#532
January 23rd, 2012 14:18
I understand the thought about protecting your handicap mark but has anyone else noticed how few of the favourites are likely to meet the minimum 4 starts stat. Last Season the weather was awful and so I allowed three starts but I would be loathe to go lower than this. either a big stat will be broken or we might be able to count a few horses out and make it easier for ourselves.
#533
January 23rd, 2012 14:53
I wonder if its the ballabriggs/state of play effect!
Ballabriggs was not out til jan last yr and has only just started doing proper work as I understand this yr. SOP well unbe…bloomin…leivable! any other horse being made to run and jump 4m4f once a yr we would be up in arms over. Training training
Certainly GN takes alot out of a horse and I think being in no rush to push them back into it could be a good thing.
However I do still like to see a pattern such as Niches, getting a couple under his belt by jan, showing no sign of last yrs race having a negative effect.
#534
January 23rd, 2012 17:28
Baggy that’s usually my criteria too having min 3 runs. I’ll be ok with WER and Bcauseicudntsee but concerned Oscar time only had 1 so far.
#535
January 23rd, 2012 17:40
Niche the best horse from last year? What race were you watching? Lol
#536
January 23rd, 2012 17:46
Mike, are you worried about what BICS has shown in his runs this year, or more to the point, what he hasnt shown? I am on at 75/1 ish but am tempted to lay it off. Another below par effort in the Thyestes could see his already vulnerable mark (140) fall again and not get a run at all.
#537
January 23rd, 2012 17:54
Mike I seem to remember you were one of those insisting Niche didn’t like aintree before last yr… er I think you were proved wrong already.
I would also be concerned about Becauseicouldn’tsee not Oscar only having one leg stretch….or are you trying to get a better price for contenders!
#538
January 23rd, 2012 17:58
Rofl!!!
Still having probs posting, just wrote a big piece leading on from everyones top pick if run on good to soft,… but lets get straight to the question
what is everyones top good ground horse?
#539
January 23rd, 2012 18:21
I’m happy enough now DPI retired…not
WER is left top of my top6 with Synchronised behind that, but if mid april is like mid summer again, it could be ‘good’ however much they water!?
DPI woulda done for me on good but now,…. oh.
Others too that like good ground are mostly going to be carrying alot of weight, should we be as concerned about the weight in the heat???
Last yr, Ballabriggs had 11st known weight bearer, DPI a brave 3rd 11st10 known weight bearer! BFT 11st1 fading 7th and that was all that finished over 11st.
#540
January 23rd, 2012 19:27
Mike N,” Niche the best horse from last year? What race was you watching?”
Ballabriggs will be hit by loads of weight and would need McCain Jr to repeat his father if he was to win.
Oscar Time likewise.
Don’t Push It retired
State Of Play will lightning strike twice with him, doubt it.
Niche Market dropped in OR and ran well, got his head in front too soon and like I’d said might have thought done enough. He strikes me as come late and fast and you shouldn’t be challenging until the elbow with him.
However its the new lot I think will hold the key.
#541
January 23rd, 2012 19:46
Also from last year’s race:
West End Rocker – jockey reckons he was jumping like a stag – yes, but, he was brought down 4 miles out!?! Won Becher in bad ground, won poor handicap on good ground – needs a bit of rain imo
Killyglen – travelled and jumped really well until falling 3 out – was it a tired fall or was he full of running as jock states? Needs fast ground
The Midnight Club – hampered and stayed on to finish respectable 6th – lightly raced so may improve – jock said he didn’t like it
According to jockeys WER and Killyglen would have won and TMC hated it
Not sure I believe jocks every time…
#542
January 23rd, 2012 20:28
Maybe Killyglen’s jock was misquoted – he had a load of horse over him when he fell instead of under him.
A few GN horses down for Argento -
/32-3P4 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 21 9 Keighley 131
211-1U3 Captain Chris (IRE) 33 8 Hobbs 164
640-31P CARRUTHERS 32 9 Bradstock 152
11P/1-4 Diamond Harry 70 9 Williams 166
22-6111 Grands Crus (FR) 33 7 Pipe 159
145-026 KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE) 33 9 Charlton 140
6/1155- Little Josh (IRE) 364 10 Twiston-D. 154
116F-1R Master Of The Hall (IRE) 21 8 Henderson 148
1115-F3 MIDNIGHT CHASE 33 10 Mulholland 158
113P-11 The Minack (IRE) 42 8 Nicholls 159
R-45534 The Sawyer (BEL) 7 12 Buckler 131
3226U-3 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 27 11 Nicholls 166
115-251 Time For Rupert (IRE) 45 8 Webber 156
#543
January 23rd, 2012 20:37
“Mike I seem to remember you were one of those insisting Niche didn’t like aintree before last year I think you were proved wrong already.”
I didnt say that KJ, I didnt have an opinion on Niche last year. And this year I could see him being placed again but probably will be outstayed like he was last year.
Aldaniti you say Oscar Time will be hit with loads of weight but I dont think that will be the case. Niche was beaten 21 lengths by Oscar Time last year and has a 12 pound pull this year. That wouldnt normally be enough to turn things around.
And with Ballabriggs on OR160 and Oscar Time on OR150 then the handicapper would have to give 11 stone if Ballabriggs is indeed top weight on 11 10 if he keeps it fair. Oscar Time turning up in the same mood this year has to be on any shortlist.
#544
January 23rd, 2012 20:47
Ewok its an interesting point about BICS. But he has a lovely OR of 140. Its lovely because he would get in with a light weight in the national. If he had been running blinders all season he’d probably be in the 150s and we’d all be saying hes got too much weight.
What i’d like in the Thyestes Chase is for him to finish a running on 3rd or 4th. That would be ideal as it will be an eyecatching run and he wont bit hit by a much higher handicap mark.
Interestingly before he fell last time he had crept into the top 10 or so after being at the back end most of the way.
Im not losing faith yet. Even if things dont go to plan in the Thyestes Chase, he could still have 1 more run before the national after the weights come out.
#545
January 23rd, 2012 21:00
I’m still not convinced that WER needs it soft. He was a pretty decent novice on good ground. In 1 race he split Wichita Lineman and Big Fella Thanks. In another race he was second to Shining Gale and only a second and a half off the course record.
Thats why ive backed him, a watered aintree course shouldnt hold no fears, its whether hes still well handicapped.
#546
January 23rd, 2012 21:06
BICS – wouldn’t there be three big trends to overcome. no 3m win, no class 1 win, 3 career falls. i wrote this one off in my first run through the card last year.
i re-watched last years race this weekend. Indeed, unlike I remember it, Killyglen’s fall followed a mistake at the fence before and indicates tiredness.
Big Fella Thanks looked even more like the winner than the previous year and got to one out but stopped dead. I saw other posts that he lost 50 lengths due to roped off fences but how many lengths is it from the last to the finish? would it really have made a huge heap of difference? or he would have just stopped nearer the line and got a place.
niche ran a great race and this year stands a great chance of a place.
would oscar time have won with a professional jockey on board? perhaps. i’d like to see a couple more runs but imagine he will get a nice weight for a repeat bid. You would have to give him a chance off 11st.
#547
January 23rd, 2012 21:22
and i also thought the niche might not like aintree, something i took back after last years run.
#548
January 23rd, 2012 21:25
Re WER’s Novice form – based on their form I reckon OR 149 in a handicap would be just too much for Shining Gale, Wichita Lineman or Big Fella Thanks
Maybe different on soft ground where WER is proven on the course under such conditions and may end up carrying <11'0 (main reason why I backed him in Becher was he seemed the best horse under 11'0)
#549
January 23rd, 2012 21:28
Big Fella Thanks hiccupped and became distressed, at least that’s what I’d read from his connections
It’s up to you whether you believe that, or that if he’d hadn’t hiccupped he would have troubled Ballabriggs and Oscar Time, but the year before without such excuses he didn’t seem to stay to me. 
#550
January 23rd, 2012 21:32
Mike N, Oscar Time travelled just as well as the winner (Ballabriggs). From past experience doesn’t Phil just lumps loads of weight on them.
Come to think about it, State Of Play finished best of all, so might be also loaded with weight.
These are just opinions though, that Phil will side on the side of caution.
#551
January 23rd, 2012 21:35
Shining Gale won off 145 then got injured so inconclusive.
Wichita Lineman was fancied for the Irish National off 149 but he died so we will never know.
Big Fella Thanks won off 146 and WER beat him.
So theres a chance hes still on a mark to be competitive.
#552
January 23rd, 2012 21:41
Aldaniti i’d be gutted if Phil takes that view. lol
#553
January 23rd, 2012 21:47
Difference of opinion Mike N, that’s all
#554
January 23rd, 2012 22:14
The form with Big Fella Thanks and WER I was referring to was over 3m. Even I know BFT doesnt stay 4 and a half miles lol, I backed him the year he was 4th around this time that year at 25-1 e.w. shouting off the rooftops that he was gonna run a big un in the GN. Jumped the last 2nd last bang there and then…. petrol gauge zero.
#555
January 23rd, 2012 22:23
Crisp’s list from post 444 based on -
1 – 8 to 12 years old
2 – handicap rating above 136 on the day
3 – weight of 11 stone 5lb or under (OR155 as a guide for now?)
4 – won over at least three miles
5 – run in at least nine chases
6 – won a chase worth at least £20K (29k is 9/9 but prizes have dropped last 18 months).
+ a few others
+ prep runs from 1st Sept.
154 Deep Purple – 1
154 Scotsirish – 63144
153 Majestic Concorde –
152 Carruthers – 31P
151 Calgary Bay – 851
150 Oscar Time – 4
150 Big Fella Thanks –
150 Chicago Grey – U37
149 Rare Bob – 45
149 West End Rocker – P1
148 The Midnight Club – BD4
147 Always Right – 1P
145 Mon Mome – 52P
145 Arbor Supreme – 60
143 Prince De Beauchene – 5
143 Exmoor Ranger – 15
142? According To Pete – 11
142 Niche Market – 92
142 Fair Along – 2634
141 Killyglen – 3034
140 Always Waining – 844
140 State Of Play –
140 Le Beau Bai – 0P711
140 Backstage – 11111 (all ptp)
140 Bluesea Cracker –
136 Baby Run –
144 Shaka – 1 (on 8 chases)
144 Galaxy Rock – 31P (on 8 chases)
153 Junior – (on 7 chases)
#556
January 23rd, 2012 22:54
Where is Big Fella Thanks by the way?? Has usually had a couple of runs by now.
Strange to see Any Currency in the Argento. Not sure what they are trying to do there – surely won’t be competitive?
Also a shame to see Exmoor Ranger and Galaxy Rock pulled from the Skybet Chase – I was going to keep an eye on them.
Mike – yes a staying on 3rd/4th would be ideal for BICS! I actually fancy the Mullins pair Prince de Beauchene and Some Target to run big races. The latter could be this year’s Ballytrim.
#557
January 23rd, 2012 23:04
Sorry, my mistake
OR142? According To Pete should be -3711
#558
January 24th, 2012 00:23
Hi guys
Time to jump in and start off with my wise words of last year ” don’t get too carried away in the betting early doors ” they werent then followed very wisely and soon got very carried away with piling on west end rocker and tidal bay at. Over 60′s
With the weights not even out yet, their are too many horses that might not even be in the mix 3 weeks before the race let alone on the day. I am trying to be reserved as I have learnt over the last couple of yrs trying to catch those early high odds, can mean ending up with about ten horses as you change your mind and a fair few no runners.
#559
January 24th, 2012 00:46
With that in mind I have had a small win only on Oscar time as was really impressed with him last yr and place only on the Niche as another fine ride and a place is on the cards.
I think the weather and the weights being announced will have a big bearing on my picks so will try and stay strong and not go too early ( he says with more confidence en last yr! )
Wer at 20/1 doesn’t hold much value if as I beleive will be another fine summers day not giving him the soft and I don’t want to fall for the silver by nature trap I jumped into last yr and although the horse gave a credible ride he didn’t get his ground so was more money donated and tagged my selections on betfair as a layers dream!
Killyglen does sound a possible contender but at 33/1 , half the odds of last yr also a very possible tired faller sound good value a few months before the race?not for me at the moment. The Minack I would put an early bet on as he has looked impressive, but the odds of over 100 ‘s on betfair don’t make him look like he will be eir on the day ( any views on this? )
Good news is I am going to enjoy the build up, the teams views and the banter and like a coiled snake take my time for a winning pick this year
#560
January 24th, 2012 01:06
One final thought, Always Waining?
Looked a very good national sort after winning at aintree last yr, with a fine horse like shakAlakaboomboom and mon Parrin Behind.
Admittedly Got put in his place by WER before Christmas ( dont think we will have the same conditions in a few months time ) but at around 3 times higher the odds, Would you rather have a horse that fell at Aintree ( bit harsh as brought down ) or one that has won well at aintree over course and distance?
#561
January 24th, 2012 02:59
Mike N- fair enough
just thought it might have been you, amongst others. My mistake.
I think from last yr in terms of probable weight and form this term, Niche is, as always a good e/w bet who I’d expect something will beat, as he doesn’t have a finish.. as much as doesn’t see it out as well as others possibly, or a combination of.
Maybe its partly this breathing problem and Graham did say he wasn’t necessarily fully recovered from that or something to that effect for last year. Wonder if they actually make a permanent differnce anyway. But, I think he could go closer.
Good on you NP! you can pick up as many dud bets with non entries, non runners a plenty and conditions unknown til race week, weights day is going to be tough,… I was ‘totally betfaired’ when DPI was retired grrrr! notfair.
WER certainly before weights out at best 20-1 doesn’t seem great. I would/should have taken 33s before the becher. I know he’ll be 12s best maybe in the build up regardless of the weight I’d imagine,.. so maybe I’m wrong if you fancy him regardless of weight and conditions you should go for it now, god! I can’t decide….week of race usually worked for me, year on year….
#562
January 24th, 2012 03:01
stick to yer guns NP
#563
January 24th, 2012 03:46
Red Alligator
Post 513
Yes, Cappa Bleu has Strong Gale on the Mum’s side but has Vimy on the Da’s side. He beat Killyglen after being off the track for 600 days or so and then was a nice 3rd in the Welsh Nat but the obvious problem with him, apart from the Strong Gale thing, is the fact that at this stage he has only run in 5 chases – 7 life runs in total.
#564
January 24th, 2012 06:59
NP
Post 560
I am surprised at Always Waining’s popularity. As his owner has said, “anything over three miles and two, he doesn’t get home.” He was exhausted at the end of the Becher (I admit his disliking of soft ground is on record). He must stand a great chance in the Topham again and they don’t have to spend the best part of 5 grand to enter.
#565
January 24th, 2012 10:26
Cheers KJ I will try.
Thanks for the info on always waining ESB it confirms two things
1. Why this blog is so good and vital to read in the build up, as I didn’t see the trainers comments
2. Why I am trying not to get sucked in on early bets as if always waining is pretty much not going to enter and not had good form this yr either? 55′s on betfair is giving away your money.
We should do a list of all the horses you would say are 99% up for the national and in our opinion will be their on the day if rain or as i favour on a nice dry day with a bit of watering e.g blog favourite the niche
Probably the best way to win money on the national is to have a big betfair balance and lay all the horses that are unlikely of a run, but where’s the fun in that eh!!
#566
January 24th, 2012 13:27
NP
The trainer is keen enough – it’s the owner, Peter Douglas, who reckons he doesn’t get a trip. If you look at his form, you can understand why. Here is a link to the article: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sports/racing-news/2010/04/10/horse-racing-always-waining-scores-at-aintree-for-peter-bowen-91466-26213012/
#567
January 24th, 2012 16:40
Starting to really warm to Midnight Chase. First of all do you all think he will run? Second what weight do you think he would get if Synchronised and Ballabriggs line up ?. What do others think, he has class Gold Cup 5th, a brilliant jumper and tends to front run best place to keep out of danger!
#568
January 24th, 2012 17:04
HOT OFF THE PRESS:
OSCAR TIME out for year with leg injury.
Thats just 3 of my 6 in last vote out! Am a jinx!!!
#569
January 24th, 2012 17:16
Was at Haydock Saturday.
Not too sure about According To Pete as the ground was dead rather than heavy and 100% certain NOT to get that at Aintree and he didnt beat much.
Had a pat of Mon Mome and Aiden C. said he was fine just hated the dead ground and saving the old boy for GN.
#570
January 24th, 2012 17:33
Disaster re Oscar Time. Only leaves 2 for me now.
#571
January 24th, 2012 17:40
Mine are dropping like ‘injured horses’ too Mike!!
#572
January 24th, 2012 18:19
shit
#573
January 24th, 2012 18:37
With a lot of injuries still yet to come and some of the classier horses still not sure to be entered I keep coming back to Scotsirish & Cooldine (price has come right down from my first mention in this thread).
#574
January 24th, 2012 19:10
That could be very astute Seven T.
Might learn something from the 2 chases in Ireland (thurs and sat) and The Great Yorkshire (not its fancy new name) on Sat at Donny before I review the scene…
#575
January 24th, 2012 19:18
Hi team can anyone tell me if a horse has won at the festival then gone on to win the grand national in same season?
#576
January 24th, 2012 19:19
re Always Waining:
It might have been the ground but he also jumped really badly in the Becher. I know he has done the business in Topham but I cant be persuaded.
#577
January 24th, 2012 19:42
I won a few bob on Always Waining in last years Topham. but it worries me that the owner was quoted as saying he cannot get further than 3M 2F. What do team think of that comment?
#578
January 24th, 2012 19:47
Forget Always Waining. Will not stay.
#579
January 24th, 2012 19:53
Nicky Henderson confuses himself and me. After Shakalakaboomboom won last time he said his next run would probably be over hurdles because its his no 1 national hope. So why is he running at Doncaster on Saturday for? OR144 is fine, why ruin it by going in and running a blinder at Doncaster???
#580
January 24th, 2012 20:29
oscar time, nooooooooooo
Just goes to backup my opinion of early doors bets normally bite you in the ass, feels like I tucked a granny smith in my back pocket last night after my comments and Oscar time just had rather a big bite!,
Good to be reminded as I could have quite easily wavered over the coming weeks. Let’s see how it unfolds a couple of weeks after the weights are announced. Hope not too many were affected by the withdrawal
#581
January 24th, 2012 21:02
Billymag
Seagram in 1991 the last to win at Festival and then GN
Otherwise:
Silver Birch runner up in the X-Country in 2007 before his win
Rough Quest runner up in Gold Cup before his win in 1996
#582
January 24th, 2012 21:14
Thanks pablo
#583
January 24th, 2012 21:36
(red alligator re midnight chase) i am not sure they are serious about mounting a national challenge. i love this horse and i think his real target might be saturday’s argento chase before taking his chance in the gold cup. he will have his fair share of weight and if all goes to plan i am not sure he will run. if he were to fall saturday, miss the GC or alternatively finish close in top 3 and look well in they may change but i dont think they are training him for it.
#584
January 24th, 2012 21:39
Hi Pablo, so in, say, last 20yrs. How Many horses have ran at the Chelt festival then gone on to win the GN?
#585
January 24th, 2012 21:49
I like Midnight chase as well (Red Alligator) , However I think Baggys spot on that Argento and Gold cup are priority and then maybe Grand National . Possibly looking to fish place money in the Gold Cup . Personally I think theyd be better going for the National as he has all the right credentials for it. If he wins on Sat or finishes close to Diamond Harry or Time for Rupert the danger will be his OR will go up again
#586
January 24th, 2012 22:07
Matriarch
In the past 21 runnings (since 1990 race) the three I mentioned above plus:
Mr Frisk 4th Kim Muir
Miinnehoma 7th Gold Cup
Bindaree 7th William Hill Trophy (no idea what’s it’s called now – Bensalem won it last year)
Don’t Push It – pulled up in Pertemps Final (hurdles)
So 7/21 and 3/10
#587
January 24th, 2012 22:19
Cheers for the info Pablo.
#588
January 24th, 2012 22:23
Agree with comments on Midnight Chase
Knockara Beau is also going for Argento & Gold Cup (no chance) but has a mark of 140 which I think is there to be exploited in a decent handicap – all the other horses around him in the RSA are now rated in the 160s or above (Weapon’s Amnesty would be if it wasn’t for his injury)
Should definitely stop this graded nonsense and go for Festival Handicap Chase (William Hill Trophy) off 140 (all winners below 143 recently) and then GN
But I suppose the trainer wants to go for glory in Gold Cup and like’s been said above the horse has to be trained for the GN – no afterthoughts
Or maybe they should go for gold and then get real and go for GN next year – proper campaign all season
#589
January 24th, 2012 22:37
I like Prince de Beauchene for the Thystes on Thursday
Any thoughts?
#590
January 24th, 2012 23:09
Hi everyone,
Please bring your comments on this thread to a close and move over to Grand National 2012 – Initial Entry Stage
Thanks
#591
January 24th, 2012 23:14
speedyseagull – i think he would be the highest OR winner in a while (think 135 or below is the trend). also wait for jockey bookings.
#592
January 25th, 2012 00:21
Shame about Oscar out injured, looks like his chance has gone…I say occasionally backing 12yr olds that have done well before
This makes me lean further toward those that have been out and about a few times this season again and away from early bets.
My two early doors bets made in november, were DPI and Synchronised, currently left hoping Sync will run but probably with a big weight
Bovril- glad you had a pat of Mon Mome
#593
January 29th, 2012 21:10
Good run from Knockara at the weekend. He didn’t jump great, but he doesn’t clatter them, he brushes through the tops of them, meaning Aintree’s fences could even suit him better?
They gotta aim him here, he appears to be gagging for the trip.
#594
January 30th, 2012 12:50
Rhino
In total agreement – Festival handicap at Chelts then GN
We’re on ‘Grand National 2012 – Initial Entries Stage’ thread now.
#595
February 6th, 2012 00:12
my sister put money on west end rocker last year, only because she lives up the west end and goes to see all the old rock and rollers, anyway he was brought down, but got a good feeling about him this year
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