Epsom Derby Meeting 2010
2010 sees the 231st running of the Epsom Derby so there should be plenty of trends of us all to get our teeth into for this historic race!
Our team of tipsters have been in great form since the Grand National coming up with the winners galore in recent weeks so let’s hope we can find the winner of the most famous of the five Flat Classics.
The last ten winners of The Derby have seen two winners apiece for trainers Aidan O’Brien, Sir Michael Stoute and John Oxx, who trained the outstanding Sea The Stars to victory last year.
The current betting is dominated by stables that have had recent winners of The Derby with Aidan O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas disappointment St Nicholas Abbey the current 7/2 favourite with a number of bookmakers including with Ladbrokes
Next in the betting is Workforce, trained by Sir Michael Stoute for Khalid Abdullah. This horse won his maiden last year impressively at Goodwood and could make his reappearance in the Dante Stakes at York next week. Workforce is a best priced 9/1 with with Boylesports
Third in the betting in many bookmakers list is Coordianted Cut, trained by Michael Bell who won The Derby in 2005 with Motivator. This horse has had the benefit of a run this season, winning the valuable Timeform Trophy at Newmarket in April. He is 12/1 with with Bet365
Who do you fancy for The Derby? And what about The Oaks and The Coronation Cup?
Let us know your thoughts.
This post has 221 comments
#1
May 7th, 2010 11:46
Can anyone see past St Nic?
#2
May 9th, 2010 14:27
I was going to back Bullett Train before yesterdays race, thinking that his price would come in if he won, but then remembered Father Time and South Easter, both of which I backed for the Derby, only to see them not run. The Derby seems a bit of a muddling race this year.
#3
May 9th, 2010 22:48
The Dante is a good trial for Derby and looking at another site (Irish racing . com)
here is a report about Workforce.
“Workforce is reported to be in fine shape as he bids to book his place in the Investec Derby with a good run in the Totesport Dante Stakes at York on Thursday.”
“The Kings Best colt trained trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is 8/1 second favourite for the premier classic on june 5th even though he has just had the one run.”
“It was an impressive one as he romped home by six lengths from Oasis Dancer in a Goodwood Maiden in September.”
“The three year is owned by Prince Khalin Abdullah, who is lucky enough to be represented by impressive Lingfield Derby Trial winner Bullet Train.”
“”He’s going to put his creditials on the line this week,” said Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to the owner. “He has been working all the time and has done one or two serious pieces. He’s in good heart and Michael seems pleased with him, so it’s OKAY so far.”"
#4
May 10th, 2010 09:18
I’d like to see Aidan O’Brien’s horses in much better order before betting on the fav, they don’t appear to be quite right yet.
#5
May 13th, 2010 21:07
2.40 FRI – YORKSHIRE CUP 15f Group 2
———————————————–
14/14 had won at least 3 times in their career
14/14 had won at least at 12f
13/14 were 9/1 or under
13/14 were aged 4 – 7y-olds
13/14 were Southern trained
12/14 won at Listed level and above , 10were in GROUP campany
13/14 had finished 1st -4th LTO
12/13 were rated 109 +
7/14 had ran that season
leaving a 2 horse race…
1. Manifest (henry cecil’s stable is in great form)
2. Purple Moon
#6
May 17th, 2010 11:59
Hi All.
This is off topic but is for the team and for the guys in admin:
Will be posting up soon a full analysis, like Systemsman, but get on my HOT HOT Eurovision dark horse tip right now – odds dropping as I type!!
BELGIUM – get on them for:
To WIN in SEMI FINAL 1 of Eurovision (place ew bet – 1/4 ODDS first 3 places) you’ll see market on bestbetting and oddschecker.
In the Eurovision FINAL get on them in the win market and place an Each Way bet. Check bookie is giving 4 places 1/4 odds – as some aren’t.
Also good Belgium bets (you can see these markets on oddschecker) are solo bets for a Top 4 place in the final and a VERY good is a bet for a Top 10 place in the final.
Showlad lava hot tip – OVER AND OUT!!!!
#7
May 17th, 2010 17:06
Thanks for that Showlad, had a small interest for them to win the first semi final.
#8
May 20th, 2010 22:00
Epsom Derby Trends (past 10 years):
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-11-81
British bred: 2-6-47
American bred: 1-3-18
French bred: 0-0-2
German bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from approximately 54.4% of the total runners.
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 3 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season
8 of 10 winners won last time out (other 2 finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 115+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
6 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (other 4 didn’t run in a group 1 as a 2yo)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a group 1
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
10 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they’d run in
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+ as a 2yo
7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (all 3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas)
9 of 10 winners made their debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
Other Races
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Midas Touch): 111343032 (3-4-9)
Dante Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 2739110120 (3-3-10)
Ballysax Stakes winner (Puncher Clynch): 1152 (2-1-4)
Dee Stakes winners (Azmeel): 1508 (1-0-4)
Racing Post Trophy winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 07106116 (3-0-8)
Dewhurst winner (Beethoven): 311 (2-1-3)
Beresford Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 30201 (1-2-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 20P1 (1-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 14 (1-0-2)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Bullet Train): 680409367 (0-1-9)
Chester Vase winner (Ted Spread): 5660545 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ballysax Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Derrinstown Dtud Derby Trial, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
Trainers
British-trained runners: 5-11-98
Irish-trained runners: 5-8-46
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (2-6-37) had 7 runners in the race last year, saddling the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th home. He has not won the race since 2002. His first strings have a record: 1-3-10.
Michael Stoute (2-2-9) won back to back runnings of the race in 2003 and 2004. His first strings have a record of 2-2-5.
John Oxx (2-1-3) has saddled two winners and a third from his 3 runners in the race in the past decade. Any runner from his yard demands respect.
Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Michael Bell (1-0-2), Jim Bolger (1-0-2) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-13) and John Dunlop (0-2-4) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2000.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
All 10 winners went off at 7/1 or shorter in the past decade.
Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.38 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
· Born before 07/04/2007
· Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
· Had run in the past 35 days
· Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas)
· Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
· Won Dante, Derrinstown or placed in 2000 Guineas last time out
· Won a group race
· Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
· Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
· Trained by A O’Brien, M Stoute or J Oxx
· Priced 7/1 or below
#9
May 21st, 2010 09:16
B I C S P TP DI CD Horse
7 1 10 4 0 22 1.44 0.50 Workforce
4 5 8 2 1 20 1.86 0.45 Al Zir
7 0 13 4 0 24 1.29 0.42 Coordinated Cut
5 0 9 4 0 18 1.12 0.33 Chabal
3 2 9 4 0 18 1.12 0.22 Jan Vermeer
1 2 10 1 0 14 1.33 0.21 Rewilding
3 1 10 4 0 18 1.00 0.17 St Nicholas Abbey
5 1 10 4 2 22 1.00 0.14 Simon De Montfort
4 2 9 7 0 22 0.91 0.14 Ted Spread
7 3 26 11 1 48 0.92 0.08 Bullet Train
3 0 8 1 2 14 1.00 0.07 Azmeel
3 1 8 7 1 20 0.67 -0.10 Cape Blanco
3 0 12 5 2 22 0.69 -0.14 Midas Touch
3 0 16 8 3 30 0.58 -0.27 Zeitoper
#10
May 23rd, 2010 11:24
Time to do all that number crunching and name the names. Who fist the trends/dosage best? Will have a look at this from Monday.
#11
May 23rd, 2010 12:55
chinese white in foal in the 3.40 curragh
#12
May 23rd, 2010 21:04
Aidan is over due a Derby winner and we are due an unbeaten colt winner.
So it has to be Cape Blanco for me.
Derby sorted, now I have more time to sort out the wee girls race.
#13
May 23rd, 2010 21:17
Miinnehoma,that post is going to look like genius or under researched in a couple of weeks
#14
May 23rd, 2010 21:42
Corum, I’ll have a fiver on under researched. No, No, genius e.w.
#15
May 23rd, 2010 21:59
#16
May 25th, 2010 18:56
I like the look of Van Vermeer. Was going to back him the other day but he was withdrawn, then I missed his win
Might have a small ew on Ted Spread.
#17
May 26th, 2010 20:16
I did back him and then he was withdrawn,then I missed his win
If he runs in the English I will be backing him and Midas I think.
#18
May 26th, 2010 20:29
Me too, I came down to 4 but like Van and Midas.
#19
May 29th, 2010 12:58
Corum did you take Van at 6′s? I didn’t
Now he’s joint fav. Don’t believe it, missed the value AGAIN!!! GRRR….
#20
May 29th, 2010 13:48
No unfortunately,I looked at the 10/1 being offered directly after his win and decided to wait until closer to the event to see if he was going to run in England or France (having been burnt in the anti post market many times). Now as you say the value has gone (unless he is a certain winner).
#21
May 29th, 2010 13:50
The best result for me would be for him not to run in the derby.
#22
May 30th, 2010 14:09
Hi Guys looking forward to Derby thread now.
Nice to see you on here Corum and Jackie
It’s like the Wizard of Oz except we’ve returned from the land of Eurovision lol 
…and you were there, and you, and you ha ha!
Hope all Team did well on here with Eurovision (we’d put up link before to OLBG so hope you followed and were on my and Systems many tips that came home).
Now this blinkin’ Derby….
#23
May 30th, 2010 14:45
Is Jan Vermeer definitely running? I know his odds indicate he is.
#24
May 30th, 2010 14:46
Hey Showlad,”theres no place like home”.
#25
May 30th, 2010 15:10
Aidan o Brien is not giving much away on the subject,is he.
#26
May 30th, 2010 16:27
I thought Aidan o Brien,( being interveiwed on Racing Post tv)looked like a poker player trying not to give any tells.
#27
May 30th, 2010 17:24
I really can’t back him now, he way too short for me, need a good ew, or may go with my second choice Midas. Grrr
#28
May 30th, 2010 17:55
Hi showald and all others – back on this thred to crack the Derby now but that giant Grand National bank roll will stay where it is, ready and primed to win in 2011 (and guess who’s payed for that TV I will watch the GN in 2011 on??). Still with the pressure of now its time for some good fun bets and a few other winners here and there
Now just who is going to win the Derby???
Will put some work into it this week,
#29
May 31st, 2010 09:32
Brokie great work on the stats/trends and dosage – save me hours of work. Now I only need to work out the winner!!
#30
May 31st, 2010 09:52
A small contribution to the discussion.
Derby Winning System (from my “black book” – cant remember where it came from – possibly this bog even).
Can some one tell me if ths trends fitted Sea The Stars last year? (I dont have a subscription to Racing Post – some I have checkef that fit butI cant get RPR etc). It was 10/10 up until last year (may now be 11/11 if someone can check with a subscription to RPost)
1. 19/20 won last race except if ran as a 3 year old in Group 1 (a Guineas or kentucky Derby).
2. 10/10 (11/11?) RPR at 3 of 118+
3. 20/20 won over 10f as a 3 year old except if contested a Group/Grade 1 as a 3year old or unraced at 3.
Also:
4. Average best RPR pre-Derby at 3 (of those raced at 3) in last 20 years (possibly 21?) is 118
5. Average winning Derby RPR over last 20 years (21?) is 125.
Hope this helps a bit to sort the wheat from the chaff!
……………………………….
Sure we can improve on the above – its only a starting point. Brokie has already added some other great stats/trends.
Does anyone have the best RPR’s of the leading six/eight or so Derby runners?
#31
May 31st, 2010 10:21
a little tip for anyone that don’t know ive just downloaded google chrome, its a lot faster and its got the wikapedia box on it, its so much faster in finding any horse or meeting.
#32
May 31st, 2010 11:32
Because of the obsession with the O’Brien horses there’s usually good value to be found amongst the others. However, I find this years Derby rather a laclustre affair. Possibly a ‘Benny the Dip’ year?
#33
May 31st, 2010 12:44
are we going to do the oaks and derby,remember the oaks is on friday like the look of workforce for derby and remember when for the oaks
#34
May 31st, 2010 13:14
workforce is trying to break a statistic that says no horse beaten in the dante stakes has won the derby. however workforce lost any chance he had of lifting the derby trial when his bit slipped through his mouth causing him to hang badly this time you will see a different horse he will stay the trip.stoute is very happy with him as well
#35
May 31st, 2010 13:25
Anyone like Ted Spread ew? Still like the fav and Midas, just didn’t get on fav when I saw him at 6′s.
#36
May 31st, 2010 14:00
my mates boss has got horses with mark tompkins i quite often get tips from that neck of the woods, i will keep my ear to the ground on ted spread but at the moment he is going to run, but he would prefer good ground, but it looks like its going to be good to firm with the weather this week
#37
May 31st, 2010 16:14
Corum – Yes, indeed NO PLACE LIKE HOME though those bloody ruby slippers are killin’ my ankles. Yes..Systems was the lion, You were the tin man and Jackie the scarecrow (and anyone who pi**es me off on here I’m afraid will be nominated for the Wicked Witch of the West – though according to the musical Wicked – she was really a good. witch… There goes me and my showbiz trivia lol…).
Systemsman COULDN’T ECHO IT MORE IMPORTANLY – GN chest STAYS LOCKED
Fun money ONLY for Derby, Big Brother, World Cup and Wimbledon…
Now down to the job at hand – Brokie – sterling work – your table – does that work from top down eg Workforce the top pick?
#38
May 31st, 2010 16:15
Guys is there that one jumps race left – the Summer National?
If so, when is it and is that the very last jumps race til we kick off in the autumn?
#39
May 31st, 2010 17:57
Thanks sling-shot01. Will hold off ’till we know about the ground.
I’ve been called a few things, but never scarecrow Showlad!!
#40
May 31st, 2010 18:51
brokie/anyone you listed the dosage figures for the leading runners in the Derby. Do you have to hand the dosage stats for the last 10/15 winners – TP, DI, CD (so we can work out upper and lower levels for all three). It will save me lost of work – if not I’ll have a go soon.
Who can we safely elimiante at this stage on dosage figures and or stats? Views Team?
#41
May 31st, 2010 22:09
jan vermeer and cape blanco might go to french derby the next day.racing post interview clare balding and aidan o’brien have a watch interesting
#42
May 31st, 2010 22:19
1.workforce 3pts 1/1
2.bullet train 2pts 1/1
3.rewilding 1pts 1/1
i know its a bit early but the grounds only gonna get faster and i really like the look of these three, and i dont know how much time ill have at the end of the week, so here they are
#43
May 31st, 2010 23:29
Racing Post -
“On average, the Derby winner achieves an RPR of around 125, though there is quite a high deviation in those figures, with anything from 118 to 130 proving enough to secure the race in the last ten years.
The opposition to the Ballydoyle stars are all some way shy of that 125 level, with Chabal coming out next best on 116.
Workforce (114), Bullet Train (111) and Rewilding (114) rank amongst the less exposed challengers to the Irish domination, but the likes of Jan Vermeer and St Nicholas Abbey are just as likely to improve, and they from a much higher starting point.”
St.N. Abbey RPR – 123
Jan Vermeer RPR – 121
Cape Blanco RPR – 120
Midas Touch RPR – 116
#44
June 1st, 2010 09:09
Off topic update: re last big ju mps race of year: Uttoxeter’s Britannia Building Society English Summer National is on Sunday 27th June 2010
#45
June 1st, 2010 09:25
Brokie – sterling work – your table – does that work from top down eg Workforce the top pick? Can anyone advise – thanks.
#46
June 1st, 2010 09:41
I like the look of Midas Touch for The Derby. Apparently the time of The Derrinstown was very fast and compared to the distinctly average time of Jan Vermeer’s trial in The Gallinule perhaps people are getting a bit carried away with the favourite. It always looks more impressive to quicken up easily in a slow time but does it represent the better form, especially given the runner-up was a 102 rated 33/1 shot?
I think Midas Touch looks to the eye to have plenty of stamina and a pedigree of Galileo and a Darshaan mare would seem to underline that, although I haven’t got to grips with the stamina index system yet so maybe someone can let me know if he is likely to stay according to that? (I really must look into how that all works!)
I’ve been waiting for the best price about the horse to go NRNB but the withdrawl of St Nic this morning has rather messed things up on that score but I’d be disappointed if Midas Touch was out of the frame.
BTW, the latest trends book I have says a low draw is a distinct advantage in The Derby? Any thoughts anyone?
#47
June 1st, 2010 10:32
Hi Guys
St Nick Abbey N/R on Sat due to muscle injury!
Just seen it confirmed on Skysports News.
#48
June 1st, 2010 10:38
good stuff admin i hear your on midas touch, i could not make my mind up between midus touch and
rewilding, but at the end of the day i went with the last mentioned because they dont supplement horses unless they think they have a chance or i cant see any other reason for supplementing it.
ive read somewhere that a low draw at derby is a help, i’m with you admin on jan vemeer i think he is too short and a 33/1 shot behind him sends out alarm bells. turf trax forecast for today is 6 mils of rain, good, good to firm in places at the moment, with it getting very warm friday through to saturday.
#49
June 1st, 2010 12:09
Any reason why Cape Blanco drifting?
#50
June 1st, 2010 12:21
Yeah,he might be going to France instead.
#51
June 1st, 2010 13:03
Thanks Corum
#52
June 1st, 2010 13:17
On OR alone it certainly looks like one of these – but whcih will run??
St.N. Abbey RPR – 123
Jan Vermeer RPR – 121
Cape Blanco RPR – 120
Midas Touch RPR – 116
Probably worth an early bet on St. N Abbey as the most likley runner with the best OR starting point (but not checked other trends/stats yet). Would also like to be on Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco IF they run but need to work out the order of these three and it looks like its only possible to bet [for a profit] on one maybe two especiley if Jan Vermeer runs. If I trained these runners I would definetly send on to France.
#53
June 1st, 2010 13:20
St Nicholas abbey withdrawn
#54
June 1st, 2010 15:42
Hi guys!
Sorry really busy at work! will try to drop by as soon as i get some free time.
Started looking at the Oaks. Dunlop has supplemented Snow Fairy and has Ryan Moore is onboard. 14/1 EW looks a good shout especially considering how open this race is.
Also GERTRUDE BELL fits the trends and has a will to win. She’s at 14′s too
GL
#55
June 1st, 2010 15:52
I also like the look of Midas, i liked him and Van from the start, but Van too short for me.
#56
June 1st, 2010 15:55
Breaking news on RP
‘Cape Blanco could join Abbey in missing Derby.’
O’Brien favouring the French Derby for Dante winner.
#57
June 1st, 2010 18:02
Have had small ew on Coordinated Cut. I know he disappointed last time and doesn’t look like the winner, but I was very impressed the time before that when the fast finishing Godolphin horse knocked him out the way and he got his momentum back and fought like a tiger to win. With a lot of inexperienced horses in the Derby that sort of tenacity might just get him placed [although with Arazi floating around in his pedigree, I'm not holding my breath!]. Didn’t think after the Dante that he would run, but trainer said that they possibly used the wrong tactics,might need further [Arazi??] and seems hopeful of a decent run on Saturday. Also 20/1 my sort of price. Rewilding as well; didn’t see the race he won last time but sounds mighty impressive and Dettori is a good jockey. Bets just out of interest really; not a Derby to get terribly excited about [unless one of those two wins!].
#58
June 1st, 2010 19:08
Yes me too Maureen.
Had lil ew nibble on Co-Ordinated and Al Zir (whose trainers are very happy with the shape he’s in and now with Fallon aboard) before value goes when Capo Blanco (probably) withdraws and odds draw in.
Co-Ordinated, if team not happy with tactics in Dante and are changing them, could have a lil more in the tank to sneak a place.
I know it’s the name of the ante-post game, but I do feel sorry for the punters and the sitamted £3m loss.
#59
June 1st, 2010 19:20
Looking at Brokie’s stats profile for the Derby winner Jan Vermeer fits every stat I am able to check (but ofcourse there may be others. Brokie/others who do you think fits best??)). As its only possible to bet on one at such a low price hes probably the one for me with his high OR (and ST N.Abbye now out)- going to decide tonight and get on tomorrow with “no run money back”.
*****Jan Vermmeer is the only one left who fits my Derby winning system (post 30) now St.N.Abbey and Cape Blanco are out (RPR at 3 of 118+).*****
No money to be made on this at these prices – just a good fun bet.
Its Jan Vermmeer unless someone can come up with a good reason why he wont win whcih so far I have not heard.
showlad any thoughts?
#60
June 1st, 2010 19:26
If Cape Blanco is in (and not gone to France)? he would also qualify under my Derby system. So its
1. Jan Vermmeer
2. Cape Blanco (if running)
against the field.
Will do points tomorrow when I have completed my work.
#61
June 1st, 2010 19:32
Systems can you explain the gradings on Brokies table: Is it from top preference down eg Workforce 1st to Zeitoper last (thought I’d ask this for the 3rd time, maybe someone will actually answer me lol).
#62
June 1st, 2010 20:40
Oh yes please; I don’t understand it either. I know it’s been explained before but it still hasn’t sunk in.
#63
June 1st, 2010 20:52
Hello all!
Sorry been really busy at work! My table shows all the horses in the betfair market at 50 or less (at time of post)
Rough and ready dosage averages for an ideal Derby horse:
B I C S P TP DI CD
6 3 14 5 1 30 1.35 0.26
Rules a lot in and not many out! (Obv. Bullet Train looks good cos he’s the only Sadler’s Wells)
Note:
Sea The Stars’ pedigree:-
http://www.pedigreequery.com/sea+the+stars
Workforce’s pedigree:-
http://www.pedigreequery.com/workforce
They’ve both got Allegretta as a granddam. Her quarter of the pedigree doesn’t contribute any dosage points, and is therfore not represented in dosage, but it is stamina-laden.
#64
June 1st, 2010 20:53
Systems JV looks very strong on trends
#65
June 1st, 2010 20:56
Year; Horse; Best RPR 2; Best RPR 3; Best RPR run
1989; Nashwan; 113; 126; 1st Guineas
1990; Quest For Fame; N/A; 116; 2nd Chester Vase
1991; Generous; 121; 106; 1st Dewhurst
1992; Dr Devious; 119; 118; 1st Dewhurst
1993; Commander In Chief; N/A; 113; 1st Glasgow Stakes, York
1994; Erhaab; 109; 126; 1st Dante
1995; Lammtarra; 100; N/A; 1st Listed, Newbury
1996; Shaamit; 84; N/A; 1st Doncaster Maiden
1997; Benny The Dip; 112; 117; 1st Dante
1998; High-Rise; 82; 107; 1st Lingfield Derby Trial
1999; Oath; 87; 118; 1st Dee Stakes, Chester
2000; Sinndar; 104; 118; 2nd Ballysax
2001; Galileo; 113; 119; 1st Derrinstown
2002; High Chaparral; 116; 119; 1st Derrinstown
2003; Kris Kin; 82; 119; 1st Dee Stakes, Chester
2004; North Light; 88; 120; 1st Dante
2005; Motivator; 118; 119; 1st Dante
2006; Sir Percy; 119; 120; 2nd Guineas
2007; Authorized; 118; 121; 1st Dante
2008; New Approach; 125; 123; 1st Dewhurst
2009; Sea The Stars; 112; 124; 1st Guineas
Average best RPR pre-Derby in last 21 years = 117
#66
June 1st, 2010 20:58
systemsman check out admins thread #46, i think he made some valid points about jan vemeer
#67
June 1st, 2010 21:00
Cape Blanco fits the 118+ trend but looks a poor fit dosage wise.
#68
June 1st, 2010 21:01
#67 @ Systems
#69
June 1st, 2010 21:04
CB likely off to France anyway…
#70
June 1st, 2010 21:11
Sorry Showlad! Hopefully #63 answered your 3 questions!
CC and AZ look good on dosage
#71
June 1st, 2010 21:20
Eh?
Was asking you Brokie how to use info on your table you put up on post #9.
Your post #63 tells Systems that JV good on trends…so am doubly confused lol…
#72
June 1st, 2010 22:31
Sorry for the confusion!
#64 tells systems JV good on trends.
#63: Rough and ready dosage averages for an ideal Derby horse:
B I C S P TP DI CD
6 3 14 5 1 30 1.35 0.26
My table in #9 is categorized from top preference down (by dosage)
#73
June 1st, 2010 22:55
Hey
Thanks Brokie!
#74
June 2nd, 2010 09:48
Will be doing full review when this absolute NONSENSE of who’s running on Saturday is finalised. Is there no prestige left with racing in the Derby anymore?
At mo for me Co-ordinated Cut with reviewed tactics would seem to represent excellent claims, despite Dante non-winner never wins Derby tag.
#75
June 2nd, 2010 12:31
Cape Blanco defo out, confirmed by O’Brien – what a fiasco
#76
June 2nd, 2010 13:39
Cape Blanco will miss Epsom and go for the French Derby on Sunday instead. Murtagh will ride Jan Vermeer
#77
June 2nd, 2010 13:40
I agree with Showlad (#74) EW
#78
June 2nd, 2010 13:44
Easy money for the bookies.
#79
June 2nd, 2010 14:10
Yep ridiculous isn’t it!!
Is anyone brave enough to start a top 3 table? I would but I’m torn. So far I’m thinking
1. Midas Touch
2. Coordinated Cut/Rewilding
3. Jan Vermmeer
#80
June 2nd, 2010 14:13
Oh great.Mark Winstanley,(the couch)has tipped Midas Touch for the Derby.It gets worst.First I miss all the value on Jan Vermeer,and now my main position has been given the kiss of death.It is just as well I have not got much on this race.
#81
June 2nd, 2010 14:18
There is far more value in the World Cup than this race.
#82
June 2nd, 2010 14:23
My three are
Midas Touch
Rewilding
Buzzword ew
but I’m not at all confident.
#83
June 2nd, 2010 14:26
If I could still get 9/1 on Jan Vermeer my three would be
Midas Touch
Jan Vermeer
Rewilding
#84
June 2nd, 2010 14:48
Glad to see we’re on the same wave length Corum!
#85
June 2nd, 2010 14:56
There is nothing that shows real class like Sea the Stars did last year.What a horse.I even backed him heavily for the Arc,at evens!
#86
June 2nd, 2010 14:59
Wow could that horse accelerate!
#87
June 2nd, 2010 15:23
Sometimes it takes the passing of time to appreciate greatness. This horse took on the best over ALL trips and hammered them, especially O’Brien’s horses who pitifully followed him around trying to find an off day.
Breeders dream the horse must be producing some amazing animals in future over ALL trips.
Trained by a legend, ridden by a legend.
No hype, no nonsense.
Just simply the greatest horse in many years and the best i’ve ever seen.
#88
June 2nd, 2010 15:46
Hi, I’m going with
1. Midas Touch.
2. Jan Vermmeer.
3. Ted Spread.
#89
June 2nd, 2010 16:03
OK Team, your Showlad is back in da house and let’s get this Top 3 Tips Table a rockin’!!
Only clear vote so far is:
sling-shot01
May 31st, 2010 22:19
1.workforce 3pts 1/1
2.bullet train 2pts 1/1
3.rewilding 1pts 1/1
Corum, hi, not sure if your ‘three’ are in descending order, so will allow you to post up yourself.
Showlad overview: Jan Vermeer, sounds like a Dutch detective lol, is clearly ticking all the boxes, but as admin rightly points out there are chinks in his armour re times etc. So for me he is an unknown quantity representing NO value, and although he may ROMP IT come Saturday, my focus must go elsewhere.
Midas Touch, 3rd string for AP mm…and I also wasn’t wildly keen on his prev 4th to Holland’s answer to Taggart and his last excellent win was in a small field of 4. So he’s out for me…
Workforce for me too many excuses being made for last run with nothing much else concrete to go on.
Now my pick for the race is Rewilding, truly relishing the distance and progressive. Co-ordinated Cut will be in the mix too and though he could mount the winner’s rostrum, I do expect him to get a place. Other consideration goes to Ted Spread who seems truly progressive in the extra trip and could continue to come on.
Of any of the runners who I feel I don’t have enough clear info – well that would be Workforce – so a saver bet goes on him.
Showlad’s vote:
3 points REWILDING
2 points CO-ORDINATED CUT
1 point TED SPREAD.
Bringing our Master Table (inc sling) to:
4 POINTS REWILDING 2/2
3 POINTS WORKFORCE 1/2
2 POINTS CO-ORDINATED CUT 1/2
2 POINTS BULLET TRAIN 1/2
1 POINT TED SPREAD 1/2
#90
June 2nd, 2010 16:05
Now inc Jackie:
Bringing our Master Table (inc sling) to:
4 POINTS REWILDING 2/3
3 POINTS WORKFORCE 1/3
3 POINTS MIDAS TOUCH 1/3
2 POINTS CO-ORDINATED CUT 1/3
2 POINTS BULLET TRAIN 1/3
2 POINTS JAN VERMEER 1/3
2 POINTS TED SPREAD 2/3
#91
June 2nd, 2010 16:38
There is only one runner left who fits my simple Derby winners system in post 30 and also fits Brokie’s stats.The fact that he won in a slow time and beat nothing over speical (what more could he do??) but won easy does not mean he cant do it against better runners only that we cant be sure. His RPR (121) and OR (119) make hima stand out for this.
Now I am only going to have a fun bet and at these prices will only have one selection so its JAN VERMEER and nothing else for me but I will give a 1,2,3 for the Team table.
Some stats now overdue:
1. No Fav has won since 2007 – overdue
2. JOHNNY MURTAGH not won since 2005 – overdue
3. Aidan O’Brien not won since 2002 – overdue
Its a 5 star bet for me!
1. JAN VERMEER 3points
2. Workforce 2points
3. Midas Touch 1point
I hav’nt really work out that 2 and 3 just went of price profile (7/1 or under and winner in top 5 in betting) as I think we will only need Jan Vermeer!!!!
Team Points updtated:
5 POINTS JAN VERMEER 2/4
5 POINTS WORKFORCE 2/4
4 POINTS REWILDING 2/4
4 POINTS MIDAS TOUCH 2/4
2 POINTS TED SPREAD 2/4
2 POINTS CO-ORDINATED CUT 1/4
2 POINTS BULLET TRAIN 1/4
#92
June 2nd, 2010 18:35
“Sometimes it takes the passing of time to appreciate greatness”. Thats a profound statement Brokie,respect.
#93
June 2nd, 2010 18:47
Midas Touch 3
Rewilding 2
Buzzword 1
7 Points Midas Touch 3/5
6 Points Rewilding 3/5
5 Points Jan Vermeer 2/5
5 Points Workforce 2/5
2 Points Ted Spread
2 Points Co-ordinated Cut 1/5
2 Points Bullet Train 1/5
#94
June 2nd, 2010 18:50
Opps not forgetting 1 Point Buzzword 1/5
So
7 Points Midas Touch 3/5
6 Points Rewilding 3/5
5 Points Jan Vermeer 2/5
5 Points Workforce 2/5
2 Points Ted Spread
2 Points Co-ordinated Cut 1/5
2 Points Bullet Train 1/5
1 Point Buzzword 1/5
#95
June 2nd, 2010 21:15
heres my oaks top three .if anyone fancies doing it
1.remember when 1/1
2.champagnelifestyle 1/1
3.snow fariy 1/1
#96
June 2nd, 2010 21:19
Excellent write ups again all , I agree JV looks to have excellent chance , but I hate going for short price favs , so my top 3 are as follows ;
3 Points Al Zir
2 Points Rewilding
1 Point Ted Spread
Good luck all
#97
June 2nd, 2010 21:26
And just incase an Oaks top 3 get started
3 Points Gertrude Bell
2 Points Sajjhaa
1 Points Snow Fairy
#98
June 2nd, 2010 22:03
oats table with jjf
3pts remember when 1/2
3pts gertrude bell 1/2
2pts champagnelifestyle 1/2
2pts sajjhaa 1/2
2pts snow fairy 2/2
#99
June 2nd, 2010 22:26
8 Points Rewilding 3/6
7 Points Midas Touch 3/6
5 Points Jan Vermeer 2/6
5 Points Workforce 2/6
3 Points Ted Spread 3/6
3 Points Al Zir 1/6
2 Points Co-ordinated Cut 1/6
2 Points Bullet Train 1/6
1 Point Buzzword 1/6
#100
June 2nd, 2010 23:15
just read on racing post they are saveing a strip of track from 6f pole to winning line for saturday .i think the draw will pay a big part now
#101
June 3rd, 2010 08:52
When is Derby draw Slingy?
#102
June 3rd, 2010 10:00
Derby draw is out – Jan Vermeer 12 of 12 – could that be a problem?
Systems is very right in what he say that Jan Vermeer can only beat what is in front of him and the time may be immaterial if he turns out to be what people are expecting of him – he certainly quickened in the style of a good horse last time. He also has two career victories over Midas Touch (albeit with possible excuses both times) but my point was merely that I felt that Midas may have proved better e/w value at that point than a win bet on the favourite as I felt Midas looked certain to stay but we shall see. Also, quite happy with draw of 4 for him.
Aviate for me in the Oaks – quite impressed with her at York, she seems to have less question marks about her than the rest of the market leaders and drawn number one.
My understanding from a trends perpective is that you’d want to be coming into the race on the back of a win in a group or listed race or a good performace in the Guineas. Hard to see confidence in Sajjhaa on that basis as I don’t think there have been many straight from maiden winners of the Oaks. Also, not keen on Akdarena winning with a tongue tie and a visor – can’t imagine many oaks winners have had those accessories?
#103
June 3rd, 2010 11:55
Looks to be no value left in Derby, Vanmeer looks the best, Workforce ran green last time and might follow home in 2nd spot and Midas Touch is my third option. Will give my Oaks three later.
#104
June 3rd, 2010 12:02
Previously (#54) I mentioned GERTRUDE BELL and SNOW FAIRY for the OAKS.
Here are my final selections:
1. GERTRUDE BELL
2. AVIATE
3. TIMEPIECE
These 3 fare best on the trends. I like GERTRUDE BELL (you can still get on at 14s) she has a good atitude and a will to win. AVIATE is another with a will to win and will give my selection most to do.TIMEPIECE has only to do better than she did last time out to make the frame
Also don’t forget about Snow Fairy. Dunlop has supplemented this horse and has Ryan Moore is onboard…could sneak a place
GOODLUCK!
#105
June 3rd, 2010 12:09
GB available at 16s on William Hill!
#106
June 3rd, 2010 12:22
Is Buzzword the pacemaker for Rewilding or do the connections think he can win in his own right
#107
June 3rd, 2010 15:12
“Derby draw is out – Jan Vermeer 12 of 12 – could that be a problem?”
I guess in stall 12 you have nothing to lose and you know what you have to do to get on the rail and a chance of winning – get out bloody fast!!
#108
June 3rd, 2010 15:15
Rats; I was quite keen on Akdarina but that doesn’t sound good. Can’t remember an Oaks winner wearing blinkers[or even an Oaks runner for that matter]. Noticed that the trainer ran her at an undulating track, so you’d have to say she should handle Epsom. Is the tongue tie on for the first time, because if it is it means she’ll improve from her last run?? Do like the sound of Gertrude Bell, though.
#109
June 3rd, 2010 15:27
Brokie, we’re speaking from a similar page too
Gertrude Bell’s will to win could be the key and will be my only bet in the Oaks. Got on her at 16s at Willhill – thanks for heads up.
#110
June 3rd, 2010 15:34
No worries Showlad! I hope she pulls through for all the times you’ve helped me with your tipping!
I’ll be there on OLBG to help out with BB too!!
#111
June 3rd, 2010 15:37
Excellent Brokie
Does anyone have any draw info eg how much it impacts a horse’s chances?
#112
June 3rd, 2010 15:50
Showlad,
7 out of last 11 Oaks winners had a single figure draw, altho 2 out of last 3 have been drawn 11 and 13
6 out of last 10 Derby winners have had a single figure draw with only Sinndar and Authorized winning from a draw higher than 10 (i.e. two other winners were drawn 10 in that time)
Not sure how significant this is. Probably ideal to have a lower draw but if you are the best horse in the race I would imagine it wouldn’t be the difference between winning and losing.
#113
June 3rd, 2010 15:59
Thanks Admin
So 40% of last 10 winners have been drawn 10 or higher – not so much the death sentence then…
#114
June 3rd, 2010 16:10
Would there not usually be more runners in the Derby? Perhaps it won’t make such a difference with only 12 runners [must point out have got no idea how many horses usually run in it,just assume that 12 isn't very many].
#115
June 3rd, 2010 16:12
Sorry;I was just echoing what Showlad has just said but in a different way [end of a long day....]
#116
June 3rd, 2010 16:14
Yes good point Maureen – what is the average number of field – anyone know?
#117
June 3rd, 2010 16:19
Very true Showlad, Maureen
I’m not sure how important it will be. I think it might be that some of the races at Epsom (The Oaks in particular, I think) have been messy, tactical affairs in recent years and being near the rail could be an advantage if something like that happens again. Let’s just hope the best horses win and its not an issue. We don’t want another Guineas!
Anyone had a look at The Coronation Cup?
#118
June 3rd, 2010 17:08
Admin:
When the Derby is over can you open a page on:
The Britannia Building Society English Summer National Uttoxeter 27/06/2010.
We have lots of time to study this one properly and hopefully some good prices available unlike the Derby. We can use it as a Team training exercise!!
#119
June 3rd, 2010 17:26
Yes please admin – last big jumps race til the autumn
A page for sure, thanks in advance.
#120
June 3rd, 2010 17:32
Still think Cape Blanco was the one and Denmark had the best song.
Cape Blanco’s stamina idex says he would stay longer than the mother-in-law.
Steve Miller (dosage expert) said -
“The son of Galileo is on a negative CD near the head of our table and, contrary to the doubts of some, will have no problem seeing out the Derby trip”.
Everything now points to Jan Vermeer – OR, RPR, TS, G1 winner, Dosage, Sire, Form (411-1 same as Sea The Stars)), Price, Trainer, Jockey. Draw wise (12)- ’00 Sinndar won from stall 15 out of 15 Rns. If the horse is good enough the draw doesn’t matter.
But why tip the Fav. – no fun.
The ’98 winner High Rise won with a low best RPR of 107, so you never know.
3 points Bullet Train
2 points Azmeel
1 point Al Zir
The last 3 Derrinstown/Derby winners had also run in the Ballysax race – 1,1,2.
#121
June 3rd, 2010 20:14
miinnehoma right tip, wrong conclusuion but we will all see on Saturday.
Jan Vermeer, just because its a poor price and Fav dosnt mean its not going to win!! Its the best trends runner so for me it has to be the selection but as we know the best trends/stats runners dont always win (just so long as they do often enougth will do me). Fun bet only as I’am looking for a better price in the Summer National.
#122
June 3rd, 2010 21:40
As promised my opinion on the Oaks
3pts Rumoush
2pt Snow Fairy (supplemented for this race so connections think she must have a chance.)
1 pts Remember When
To recap my Derby hopes
3pts Jan Vermeer
2pts Workforce
1pt Midas Touch
Best Outsider Hot Prospect
Coronation Cup
3 pts Fame and Glory (last year’s Derby runner up, could win like Slip Anchor did.)
2pts Cavalryman
1pts Youmzain
#123
June 3rd, 2010 21:43
Systems,
I didn’t say he wouldn’t win, infact I said the opposite but I don’t back anything at that price, there is no fun in that for me. I only give the horses that I back and it’s usually an e.w. bet.
#124
June 3rd, 2010 22:14
in coronation cup i like
1.3pts sariska
2.2pts fame and glory
3.1pts jukebox jury
#125
June 3rd, 2010 22:42
oats table after jjf,brokie,neil s
6pts gertrude bell 2/4
4pts snow fairy 3/4
4pts remember when 2/4
3pts rumoush 1/4
2pts champagnelifestyle 1/4
2pts sajjhaa 1/4
2pts aviate 1/4
1pts time piece 1/4
#126
June 3rd, 2010 22:55
Derby Table -
8 Rewilding
8 Midas Touch
8 Jan Vermeer
7 Workforce
5 Bullet Train
4 Al Zir
3 Ted Spread
2 Co-ordinated Cut
2 Azmeel
1 Buzzword
#127
June 3rd, 2010 22:58
Thanks for that Sling, whats the Derby Picture like after the recent votes.
P.S already started on next year’s national after the visitation of Graham. I normally wait to February for any Ante post bets, but with just a little bit of blooming luck, he can win 2011. Go the Niche!
#128
June 3rd, 2010 23:01
And if by magic, sorry and thanks Miinnehoma for posting Derby table. Must have posted our last post together.
#129
June 4th, 2010 01:21
Oaks top 3 -
3 – Timepiece
2 – Akdarena
1 – Remember When
Oaks Table -
6pts gertrude bell 2/5
5pts remember when 3/5
4pts snow fairy 3/5
4pts timepiece 2/5
3pts rumoush 1/5
2pts champagnelifestyle 1/5
2pts sajjhaa 1/5
2pts aviate 1/5
2pts Akdarena 1/5
#130
June 4th, 2010 07:49
Hi all!
Does anyone the draw bias in the Oaks??? Its saying High on ATR? Is this correct? Thanks!
#131
June 4th, 2010 08:30
I find it hard to see Fame And Glory not winning this and Sariska should be 2nd. Both horses are proven group 1 performers who have good form over CD and are in good heart presently
Jukebox Jury at 12s looks the ew value after a good win in the group 2 Jockey Club LTO
Youmzain 2nd again?!!
Goodluck!
#132
June 4th, 2010 08:31
#131 RE. The Coronation Cup!
#133
June 4th, 2010 08:33
There’s not much value in any of these 3 races is there?!! Bar GB and SF in the Oaks…
Bring on the Summer National! Admin I’m with Showlad and System’s in the request for a separate thread. We would all much appreciate it!
#134
June 4th, 2010 08:48
Can’t see any reason why I can’t give my top 3 –
Oaks
3pts Aviate
2pts Remember When
1pt Rumoush
Derby
3pts Midas Touch
2pts Bullet Train
1pt Jan Vermeer
Good luck everyone – ps I will add a Summer National page in the near future. I just wish they hadn’t messed around with the distance – it was a much better race when it was 4m!
#135
June 4th, 2010 09:25
oats table jjf,brokie,neil s,miinnehoma,admin
7pts remember when 4/6
6pts gertrude bell 2/6
5pts aviate 2/6
4pts snow fairy 3/6
4pts rumoush 2/6
4pts timepiece 2/6
2pts champagnelifestyle 2/6
2pts sajjhaa 2/6
2pts aviate 2/6
2pts akdarena 2/6
#136
June 4th, 2010 09:30
ok cheers admin good luck too. no time to do derby table i will do later if need to
#137
June 4th, 2010 09:45
OAKS:
3 points GERTRUDE BELL
2 pints SNOW FAIRY
1 point CABARET
9pts gertrude bell 3/7
7pts remember when 4/7
6pts snow fairy 4/7
5pts aviate 2/7
4pts rumoush 2/7
4pts timepiece 2/7
2pts champagnelifestyle 2/7
2pts sajjhaa 2/7
2pts aviate 2/7
2pts akdarena 2/7
1 pt cabaret 1/7
Will check in later today guys
#138
June 4th, 2010 09:47
Passing shot for Admin: Any idea why they shortened Summer Nat distance?
#139
June 4th, 2010 09:48
Matriarch over C & D since 2000 stall 1 is 0-62 in double figure fields and stalls 1&2 are 1-123 over C & D since 2000 in double figure fields (aviate 1 and rumoush2)
#140
June 4th, 2010 10:16
Mine for Oaks are:
3 points Rushmore
2 points Gertrude Bell
1 point Champaynelifestyle.
I’ll up date table in a while. Need to look at RP for other races.
#141
June 4th, 2010 10:30
Showlad,
“Passing shot for Admin: Any idea why they shortened Summer Nat distance?”
I seem to remember something about trying to make the race more competitive but I’m not sure that will cut much mustard really. In the nine years it was run over the longer distance the field ranged between 11 and 16 and last year’s shortened distance attracted a field of seventeen. Hardly a massive improvement and looking at the quality of the runners I’m not sure that will necessarily improve as decent quality horses such as Stormez, Take The Stand and Mckelvey won the race when it was over four miles and I can’t see the real top three and half mile handicappers coming out for this whereas the race had some creedance at four miles as a National trial. So, they may get a bigger field now but I doubt it will (a) attract the same quality of runners or (b) have any effect on the Grand National at all.
It will be interesting to see how the race fares but fingers crossed the powers that be see sense and put the race back to four miles.
#142
June 4th, 2010 10:41
Up dated table with my points.
11 pts gertrude bell 4/8
7pts remember when 4/8
7 points rushmore 3/8
6pts snow fairy 4/8
5pts aviate 2/8
4pts timepiece 2/8
3pts champagnelifestyle 3/8
2pts sajjhaa 2/8
2pts aviate 2/8
2pts akdarena 2/8
1 pt cabaret 1/8
#143
June 4th, 2010 10:45
Derby Table – #126 + admin’s #134
11 Midas Touch
9 Jan Vermeer
8 Rewilding
7 Workforce
7 Bullet Train
4 Al Zir
3 Ted Spread
2 Co-ordinated Cut
2 Azmeel
1 Buzzword
#144
June 4th, 2010 10:45
RE #141
I’m not sure either why they shortened it. I’ve not checked the past winners of the race but maybe the ground comes into it? Maybe they thought it was too big a distance to run in the height of summer on good/firm ground??? Has there been many injuries/fatalities from this race??
Also, cheers Billymag for ur info.
#145
June 4th, 2010 11:28
Re. the OAKS:
Marie De Medici, won the Pretty Polly last time and should be suited by the longer trip. 66′s on Sportingbet
#146
June 4th, 2010 11:45
RE. the Coronation Cup:
Paddy Power go 7/2 on Youmzain w/o Fame And Glory…looks decent
#147
June 4th, 2010 12:12
Thanks Brokie put cpl bics ew on Marie
#148
June 4th, 2010 13:57
2nd and 3rd in Coronation..couldn’t touch fav! 1 other winner, good day so far
Covered the Oaks bet.
#149
June 4th, 2010 13:58
Quote: #31:
brokie
June 4th, 2010 08:30
I find it hard to see Fame And Glory not winning this and Sariska should be 2nd. Both horses are proven group 1 performers who have good form over CD and are in good heart presently
2:45 | Coronation Cup
1st – 4 Fame And Glory (J Murtagh, 5-6 fav)
2nd – 10 Sariska (J P Spencer, 5-2 2nd-fav)
3rd – 9 High Heeled (William Buick, 25-1 )
#150
June 4th, 2010 14:00
Get in fame and glory took 11/8 last weekend (#158 summer thread)
#151
June 4th, 2010 14:01
Good tipping Brokie and Jackie!!
#152
June 4th, 2010 14:08
Thanks
Off out, will watch Oaks at local bookies. Good luck everyone, see you all later, hopefully with pennies in your pockets 
#153
June 4th, 2010 14:09
Well done to all winners on Fame and Glory.
#154
June 4th, 2010 14:35
Well done Jackie, Marko and everyone else who backed F&G
Bring on the Oaks!!!
#155
June 4th, 2010 14:37
Still not sure about the Derby. Rewilding/Midas Touch are probably the 2 most solid outside the Fav.
I do have a gut feeling about Coordinated Cut and Al Zir though…
#156
June 4th, 2010 15:13
Did every one get on board Snow Fairy?!
#157
June 4th, 2010 15:21
got my derby and world cup money now snow fairy and remember when get in
#158
June 4th, 2010 15:23
YYYYYYYYYOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO – well done le Snow Fairy – DOUXE POINTS!!
Was on Feiry Lad earleir too so a good day at the office (sorry wasn’t on blog for Feiry tip).
#159
June 4th, 2010 15:31
Well done Sling-Shot and Showlad! Not a bad day for all of us!!
Fame And Glory, Sariska and Snow Fairy for me
#160
June 4th, 2010 15:36
Well done on your triple glory Brokie!
Liked Fame and Glory, I’m just a bit of a Minnehoma and like a bit more value
#161
June 4th, 2010 15:39
well done brokie, showlad and everyone else. brokie we must have been readingfrom the same page. same horses as you but i had sariska as my top choice. i did a win bet on fame and glory, and sariska each way @7/2 took 16/1 on snow fairy early, and 8/1 on remember when. is anyone fancys doing bullet train youll be better off getting on there early cause being a henry cecil horse there will be a lot of support for him tomorrow, and they move the rail back tomorrow and his drawn on the rail and has nice fresh ground.
#162
June 4th, 2010 15:44
Well done today Slingy
Good point re Bullet.
#163
June 4th, 2010 15:46
Yeah the value certainly wasn’t there on F&G.
If you like value Showlad, get on Al Zir for the Derby. I’ve decided to top up! AZ is a big, good looking colt who showed plenty of promise when winning first two starts, including 4L defeat of Awesome Act. Gives the impression of a likely stayer and has the assistance of Kieren Fallon in the saddle, who has won the race three times. Epsom may not be the ideal course to showcase his talents, but has more natural ability than most.
Another outsider with a decent chance is Buzzword – Has a Group 3 success to his name, with a further three placed efforts at Group level – once at the highest.
#164
June 4th, 2010 15:47
Nice one Sling-Shot! Our wallets are no doubt happy that we both share the same way of thinking!!
#165
June 4th, 2010 15:50
On Al Zir already when I heard good reports from his team and the Fallon on.
Thanks for Buzzword inf.
#166
June 4th, 2010 15:56
Well done to all who had winners today
#167
June 4th, 2010 16:09
Oh and don’t forget Coordinated Cut…you can get on at 20′s
#168
June 4th, 2010 16:12
on him from word go – my first bert on this year’s derby
#169
June 4th, 2010 16:30
Couldn’t resist having £1 ew on Snow Fairy at bookies after Ed Dunlop said hie piece on BBC2. Got 12′s, but happy none the less, good day for me too.
Well done to everyone today, sounds like a good day for all!
Not confident for derby tomorrow though. Think I have to have Fallon covered though after today’s rides, (apart from the first that I was on!)
#170
June 4th, 2010 18:30
Brokie well done mate.
#171
June 4th, 2010 19:49
Sorry everybody; things are a bit hectic on the home/work front at the moment. Backed Akdarena, Gertrude Bell and Meeznah today [seconditis again]. Wish I’d looked closer at Snow Fairy and congrats to all who backed her. So glad for Ed Dunlop to have the possibility of another Ouija Board on his hands [if there ever will be another..look forward to seeing Voodoo Prince running in the future]. Rewilding and Co-ordinated Cut for me tomorrow [Fallon put in a good word for the latter today]. Good luck, guys and gals!
#172
June 4th, 2010 21:17
The Derby looks substandard, at least from Timeform’s point of view.
The last five winners earned rating from timeform of:-
145
133
146
142
140
Makinhg an average of
141
Tomorrow’s ratings from timeform (which I got free) are
1 Al Zir 125
2 At First Sight 121
3 Azmeel 123p
4 Bullet Train 124p
5 Buzzword 123
6 Coordinated Cut 128
7 Hot Prospect 118
8 Jan Vermeer 137p
9 Midas Touch 132
10 Rewilding 133p
11 Ted Spread 122
12 Workforce 129p
The p means likely to improve.
You can see that top rated Jan Vermeer falls way short of the usual ratings of winners so I advice caution and not going for anything too short in price.
#173
June 5th, 2010 00:20
Red Cape looks a good EW in 5.15 Epsom at big odds dropping down the handicap with a claimer .Will be risking a few tokens
#174
June 5th, 2010 00:25
Sorry meant 5.20 the shiraz starting to kick in
#175
June 5th, 2010 07:19
Morning all , beautiful day here in Scotland , hope same for all . Thanks for those who pointed me in direction of Snow Fairy yesterday nice e/w landed at 20s . Hoping Keiran can get Al Zir up and first worried now about Frankies though . Like look of Dr Zhivago in first as well , any views would be welcome , gl to all today
#176
June 5th, 2010 08:37
Oh a bit of a night last night team.. If I just say the key words were: neighbour – hot tub – wine – empty stomach – Showlad laughing much, then I think you get the picture lol.
OK Team, today, as some would say, is the pinnacle of the animal we call ‘the flat’.
We’re ‘Jumpies’ on here not ‘Flatties’ – but we’ll give it a go.
Jumps: years of training and schooling over fences at the stable. Then hurdles. Ready for a steeplchase? 2 miles. Step up to even 3 miles? Ready yet for a gruelling stamina sapping 4 miles? Finally, can you handle the fences of the big one at Aintree? 6 years old, 7 years old..mmm..but we’ll get your best at 9, 10 or 11.All the blood, sweat, drama and action. THIS IS WHY WE LOVE IT.
Flat: the brilliance of running in a straight line as fast as you can. 3 year olds in their prime. 2 or 3 outings before the plum prizes are on the horizon. Did you hear the time he was reported to have recorded the other day? Doseage and promise.. Often your key runners’ in the big races, have only had outings in separate races – so much is left to guess work. Yes his time was slow, but he just beat who turned up. They say at home he’s faster than Shergar.
I know there’s so much to the flat but I think the above, perhaps crude comparison, shows why we love the jumps.
Point in case today. We just don’t know how good Jan Vermeer is. Quite what the potential Workforce has – he’s only had 2 runs and lost the bit last time out. Very few of the top contenders have run in the same race or are able to be gauged by the same yardstick.
So the value today…
Well for me it’s undoubtedly offered by the trio of:
Co-Ordinated Cut – much promise and yard says poor tactics led to his 3rd in the Dante, won by my fav for this race Cape Blanc. So hopefully will deliver today.
Ted Spread: Loving the distance and it’s a big ask today but he IS improving and at odds worth a healthy ew flutter.
Al Zir: Hasn’t fulfilled his early major potential but yard state very happy with him and Fallon in amazing form is on board.
Of the shorter odds it’s Rewilding who seems to be the stand-out for me showing a brilliance for the longer distance and could maybe just romp it today.
Jan for me is very poor value, has a lot of claims, but for me the fun has gone and I like a lil more ‘game’ and return for my stakes.
e
#177
June 5th, 2010 09:29
I’ve sent someone out to put a bet on Ted Spred for me, so have probably covered half the field now! Still hope to see Co-ordinated Cut’s big white face in front, though. Rumours of problems with Jan Vermeer, and Johnny Murtagh sounded a bit cagey on the morning line. Just hope I get to see the race, as it’s fascinating.
#178
June 5th, 2010 10:00
I liked the way Ted Spread won at Chester, think he’s a good ew. Good luck to everyone today. I have a few ew too, so don’t worry Maureen
#179
June 5th, 2010 10:08
Off topic, but more likely to be seen on here today rather than Summer thread:
Stosur is the hot surprise finalist in the French Open Tennis ladies final today (2pm). The other surprise finalist is Schiavone. On paper it’s Stosur’s title – but today it’s to lift the trophy and the nerves will be flying around aplenty for each of these newcomers first Grand Slam final.
Schiavone has been kissing the clay when winning and is SO passionate about this one. At 4/1 Schiavone is an outstanding price to steady here nerves the better and lift the prize.
Tennis is one of my other main specialities. Stosur has beaten the ‘big hitters’ Henin, Williams, Jankovic, whereas Schiavone is more of a chip and spin player and may well unsettle the ‘big target rhythm’ that the bigger stronger players have given Stosur.
#180
June 5th, 2010 10:46
Crikey..Derby day, lol, where’s the team gone?
#181
June 5th, 2010 11:56
Afternoon
#182
June 5th, 2010 11:56
Fancy Hot Prospect, each way, instead of my nominated 3, even if they have a better chance of winning the prices might be poor value & timeform suggests it looks substandard.
#183
June 5th, 2010 11:58
We’re ‘Jumpies’ on here not ‘Flatties’ . Good post Showlad.
#184
June 5th, 2010 12:01
Thanks Corum
Neil – why Hot Prospect – runner up to a cpl of runners in 2days race – any reason why you think he can turn it on today?
Look forward to your reply
#185
June 5th, 2010 12:09
Think ‘Thompson’ 1.55 Worcester good ew value.
#186
June 5th, 2010 14:54
Hope you all on Schiavone
Now for the Big One…
#187
June 5th, 2010 14:57
Nice call Showlad on Schiavone I had never heard of her before but saw her beat Kiriklova who i had a few pounds on and put a few quid on at 40/1 and in a final very good value at 4/1, lets hope your luck holds out for the derby
#188
June 5th, 2010 15:08
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As said with my Top 3 he was my saver as unkown quantity. But I put good few bics on At first sight ew as thought odds crazy!!!!
Got Rewilding ew too.
Workforce 4th in our table and Rewilding 3rd – good collective effort
Hope you all did well!!!!
GO TEAM
#189
June 5th, 2010 15:08
Go on At First Sight – blimey I thought he had it. Now that’s what I call value.
#190
June 5th, 2010 15:17
Exactly Miinnehoma
#191
June 5th, 2010 15:31
derby and oats double first and third today get in come on royal ascot
#192
June 5th, 2010 15:32
The couch didn’t let me down.
#193
June 5th, 2010 15:33
The kiss of death.
#194
June 5th, 2010 15:36
The other day he said Snow Fairy had no chance of winning.So I was quite confidant that he would.
#195
June 5th, 2010 15:52
The number of times I’ve backed a long priced O’Brien horse to place only for them to finish last, and today I missed a 150/1 second! And I’d decided this year to really pay attention to what trainers were saying. When they said on the BBC how excited Michael Stoute was about Workforce I should have listened [although even he wasn't sure how the horse would handle Epsom].He knows a bit about training Derby winners does Sir M!
#196
June 5th, 2010 16:00
could workforce be better then sea the stars we all thought it was a average derby but could we be seeing a great in the making
#197
June 5th, 2010 16:01
Well done all on here. Slingy (hope you don’t mind your nickname)you seem to be hot hot hot
Mo (hope you don’t mind your affectionate abbreviation) just one of those things. I put 2 bics on At First Sight ew just cos of those crazy odds and of course didn’t think the pace he’d set would hold and then pretty much forgot about it. Then my other half had gone for AFS too as a lucky ‘pinstick’ bet. I then topped up mine to same level. Do feel bring it on after GN dissapointment.
VERY satisfied with result, had my saver on WorkForce as, as I had said, his last run was inconclusive. My main hope Rewilding was ew, so all in all a good day at the races.
Stuck to my guns re Schiavone (couldn’t watch, lol, went out shopping). A mate to whom I’d given tip, never texted, so I thought she’d lost lol. 4/1 were great odds – taped match – but as I said I think nerves got to Stosur and Schiavone was SO passioante for a win for Italy – SUCH a fighter.
Glad with return but as Systems says wil still only put samall amounts on the flat
#198
June 5th, 2010 16:30
Showlad, sorry about the late reply been doing a spot of decorating.
You asked me why Hot Prospect, well its just on the sp factor. The race looked substandard that has been pointed out now with the pacemaker, At First Sight coming second.
Nick Mordin was impressed with its third at Newmarket and at 50/1 I thought might prove better value than the jolly (favorite ).
Good luck to Workforce for future races, but won’t be winning against the older horses later in the year.
I think Fame and Glory who was in See The Stars shadow last year will prove a real class act this year.
#199
June 5th, 2010 16:31
Nice one sling.
sling-shot01
May 31st, 2010 22:19
1.workforce 3pts 1/1
#200
June 5th, 2010 16:48
To make a comparison of 12 horses in the Derby its like 20 turning up for the National.
#201
June 5th, 2010 17:13
dont mind at all showlad. miinnehoma cheers looking forward to world cup and royal ascot and summer national. like the look of john terry most minutes played for england 4/1 w/h baring injury should play every minute with rio ferdinand out
#202
June 5th, 2010 18:05
Looks like I’ve started it now..sling..sling lol
Yes REALLY looking forward to Summer Nat.
#203
June 5th, 2010 19:00
Congrats to all winners today, none in Derby for me, (can’t believe I missed the pacemaker!!) never mind, 2 other winners and very good day yesterday
#204
June 5th, 2010 19:30
Jackie I never had the pacemaker too, never give it a second thought. However I thought a huge price would come in the 1-2-3s.
Both Oaks and Derby was my second choice in my list and Cornation Cup was my top choice, however didn’t backed them.
I am though backing Niche for the national, just a little something whenever I got the spare cash. Already got £10 on at 54/1 with betfair.
#205
June 5th, 2010 20:30
Mighty run by Workforce, what price Cape Blanco to-morrow but racing never that simple.
After spending hours on trends and dosage I noticed by chance last night that both Paddy/Lads were offering 125/1 & 100/1 e.w. on At First Sight w/o Jan Vermeer. Betfair were 220 win and 34 for 3 places – mighty value with only 12 Rns. and well worth a bet. To be honest up to then I hadn’t considered him.
But this lad was 2nd. in the Ballysax, 3rd. in a very fast Derrinstown and had a good sire/dosage. With such an open Derby you just never know, they might not catch him. For me it turned a poor race, without Cape Blanco & St. Nic, into a cracker to watch – look behind you.
#206
June 5th, 2010 20:38
Me too, just not him
#207
June 5th, 2010 22:07
I knew one of the horses had come second in the Ballysax, but I’ve just spent 2 days waiting for my second grandson to arrive and it’s been a nightmare..everything’s ok now! [phew...]. looking at the races took my mind off it a bit, but my judgement has been somewhat compromised. As ever, glad that some of you were on the winner and second. What a day! mo
#208
June 5th, 2010 22:20
Hi guys!
what a day hey?! Well done Slingy, miinnehoma and everyone else!! Must admit, I never even thought to look at ‘At First Sight’. CONGRATULATIONS all that were aboard…sterling work!
Rewilding EW and my double on Remember When & Rewilding were my savers
Bring on the Summer National…enough of this flat malarky
Any chance of a separate thread Admin? Would love start the hard work soon
#209
June 6th, 2010 08:03
Anyone fancy looking into the Royal Hunt Cup with me? looks like some decent prices available…
#210
June 6th, 2010 12:07
cheers brokie like the look of riggins and fareer both horses on my nag me both about 14/1 at momment its a big field though about 30 runners
#211
June 6th, 2010 12:21
i have watched workforce about 3 or four times now in the derby, and i am convinced this horse is gonna be massive , it broke the course record by a second nearly, and it won by seven lengths, and was still running on gamely and stouty still thinks its gonna improve, and willy carson thinks his gonna win everything this year. three horses to take out from this weekend workforce, fame and glory, and high heild run well in third, it was only his first run this season keep on side.
#212
June 6th, 2010 13:01
Hi Slingy can u post up where to find the Summer Nat runners, thanks
#213
June 6th, 2010 13:01
Admin yes please post up a thread for Summer Nat asap – Thanks
#214
June 6th, 2010 13:26
It’s no Zenyatta though.
#215
June 6th, 2010 14:06
hello Neil my friend – we seem to have been on te blog at opposite times of late lol
Hope you’re really well and looking forward to your essential part of team effort for Summer Nat 
#216
June 6th, 2010 14:37
i had a quick look showlad for summer national
couldn’t find nothing at the moment ill have a better look later , all that kept coming up was our blog, how mad was that.
#217
June 7th, 2010 09:50
Hi everyone,
Could I ask that if you are making multiple tips in a particular race that you acknowledge this when discussing your success in tipping a winner?
I think its only fair if you have spread your stakes over a number of horses and secured a profit in that manner that you mention your staking plan when nominating that you have tipped a winner. For example, if you have tipped a 5/1 winner but have also suggested a further three horses in the same race, at level stakes the profit is only 6/4 and should be acknowledged as such or it could look as if we are cooking the figures to anyone new joining the blog.
By all means let us know when you have backed a winner but quantify it by how you’ve done overall on the race with an idea of your staking plan, preferably given before the race.
Backing multiple runners to gain a profit can be a very shrewd way of gambling – let us know the details of how you are winning, we don’t need to know actual figures, a points system will do or at the very least please just acknowledge that you have spread your stakes in the race.
Thanks
#218
June 7th, 2010 11:58
Admin, when I usually back multiple selections in a race its to win a certain sum of money.
For example say I backed 2 horses to win £100 & they were 2/1 and 3/1.
I put £34 on the 2/1 winning £68 plus the £34 return making £102.
On the 3/1 I lay £25 winning £75 plus £25 return making £100.
My outlay being £59 in this example.
However last national my stakes were all to level stakes of £25. Meaning on some I backed nearer the event I could have lost, even with the winner.
Like showlad’s idea of using biscuits to represent your staking, probably fox’s biscuits are a high level stake and crumbs might be lose change.
#219
June 7th, 2010 13:34
and choco Hob-Nobs are???!
#220
June 7th, 2010 15:47
Cooking the books – good one.
Instead of a top 3 maybe we should have a top 7.
Cape Blanco poor yesterday.
#221
June 11th, 2010 20:30
Systemsman back on duty – been on hols for a week in the Cotswolds (nice but a little bit twee!).
Didnt get the winner but it was only a small fun bet so no harm done. Had I been at home and in the bookies I would have for sure had a “saver” bet on the winner but thats life you win some and you lose some and sometimes you cant even watch the race!