Cheltenham Festival 2018

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62 Responses to Cheltenham Festival 2018

  1. Mike N says:

    Willoughby Court v Yanworth part 2 today.
    Will be an interesting watch.

  2. Lescargot says:

    My feeling regarding the Gold Cup, given the outcome of the Christmas racing, that apart from Might Bite, the best progressive form on offer is from last seasons crop of Irish novices. In particular I took an early view about Disko and took 33/1 and put him in a couple of accs. Overall his form through Anibale fly is working out well. However, I am getting worried that all is not well but cant find any quotes about his no show. I am hoping he will be entered for the Irish Gold cup on the 4/2/18. Has anyone got any info?

  3. Lescargot says:

    As Mike C posted on the G/N thread Blacklion is now on or161, this puts him theoretically 5 lbs behind Native River 8/1, and 8 lbs behind Might Bite 11/4. Blaklion is 33/1 A post with BV and 20/1 nrnb with others. In a year where the race is possibly falling apart, Blaklion an RSA chase winner, will stay and will get up that hill. I’m going to take the 33/1 ew. Any views?

  4. Mike N says:

    Disko would be Gigginstowns best chance in the Ryanair I expect and they have Road to Respect for the Gold Cup.

    Re Gold Cup I have a 12-1 ticket on Might Bite to win king george/gold cup so hoping that comes off. He’s a lot better on good ground as well. He won the King George not enjoying the ground and class got him through. I may add another pick we will see.

    Blaklion i can’t see him getting close at the business end unless a few underperform.
    He’s basically a handicapper who’s lofty rating means he has to aim high now.

  5. Lescargot says:

    I have Might Bite at 8/1 for the gold cup and Disko in both the GC and win any race at Cheltenham market. You may well be right abut the Ryan Air, but I am hoping they plump for the GC, because Noel M after his November run was quoted as saying his best trip is 3 miles. On Blaklion though, I can see your point, but the GC often throws up a winner or big priced placed horse in the Blacklion mould. I still think the most likely winner is Might Bite.

  6. Corbiere says:

    I also have a King George & Gold Cup bet on Might Bite at 10/1 , so Mike N I was thinking along same lines re better ground, fingers crossed.
    I also have in my portfolio:
    Triumph – Apple’s Shakira
    Arkle – Footpad
    Stayers – Sam Spinner
    Champion Chase – Politilogue
    Supreme Novices – Mengli Khan
    all at better prices than they are now as I backed then all weeks ago.
    With the Supreme Getabird all the rave today after Saturday but he beat Mengli by approx 6 lengths with Mengli giving 6lb, so I still hold some hope .

  7. Lescargot says:

    Many are not interested in the CC, but I think it is a good betting medium. I know on the site there is a lot of support for Cause of Causes , but there was an interesting quote the other day from E Bolger when he said Josies Orders was proving harder to get fit this year. I watched Nina Carberry give him far too much to do in the cross country in 2016 when JO should have won the CC. Missed last CC through injury, has returned this year and has been beaten in 2 two CC chases. The last one being beaten 6+ lengths by Bless the Wings and went out in the betting as a result. Looking at it I thought initially JO had deteriorated, but given the trainers comments, maybe not,I think JO is a good ew bet, for the CHELT CC, so took 10/1, still on offer at 8/1..

  8. pablo says:

    Singlefarmpayment for the Ultima on Day 1 NRNB my only ante post bet. He won’t be double figures on the day were he to line up.

  9. Seven Towers says:

    Just back most of those that won at Kempton on Saturday once target is known. That was the best group of trials I have seen all season, with some fantastic statements made. William Henry is still unexposed as far as my eye told me, Redicean was superb, Chef Des Obeaux looks an absolute grinder of a horse, please God they decide the Ryanair is the right race for Waiting Patiently and Fountains Windfall can win whatever race he wants.

  10. Mike N says:

    I don’t think many will win at the Festival myself ST. Mainly because Tom Segal said exactly the same thing as you and he talks b******* a lot of the time lol. I’m not saying you do most of the time by the way ;)

  11. Seven Towers says:

    I lay claim to it over him. I said it on the day on the other thread.

    Jenkins didn’t do too bad today though did he?

  12. Lescargot says:

    I side with ST on this notion. That Kempton meeting winner”s do reasonably well at Cheltenham.Regarding Jenkins, I was heavily influenced last year with NH’s opinion of him, lost money, but this year I kept the faith and have nearly got it all back. Given the ground it was a good run and he was determined.I would back him at Chelts.

    RE: The stayers, early on I took a fancy to Supasundea and have backed him from prices from 20/1 down to 7/1 ew. If you have a look at him, he came out of a race 29/4/15 at Punchestown which has produced a lot of winners and he has good Cheltenham form in the bumper, the supreme and a winner of the Coral Cup, his form against Apples Jade I think is the best staying form on offer and the trainer and the jockey having been making confident comments. The more I look at him I think I am going to back him again. Any views on him/race.

  13. Seven Towers says:

    Was doing a bit of digging after the convincing win of Dortmund Park a moment ago. I see he was owned (not trained) by trainer Richard Hobson while the horse was running in France (he who found Hurricane Fly) before he sold him to Gigginstown for a huge amount of money. Hobson must be absolutely minted. Anyway, was going through the French form that you can link with Dortmund Park through a horses called Deese Du Seuil and Demey and found some footage too and I see there is a 5 year old that won a G1 bumper eased down and looked a bit special. Little did I know that he has been snapped up by McManus and sent to Pipe and is entered in the Supreme. DELIRANT could be the proverbial anything. Interesting horse. Looking forward to seeing him.

  14. Mike N says:

    Lescargot your Supersundae bet is OK. However as I am on Sam Spinner at 20s also we will agree to disagree on who has the best stayer form.

  15. Lescargot says:

    We will ST, because I think Apples Jade has the edge over L’ami Serge, however, I like Sam but I missed the price. I backed him at Ascot and he was impressive and I agree he is a big danger. I think he may well drift on the day and I would have a saver win bet. Do you think he will shorten?

  16. Lescargot says:

    Oops meant Mike N, thanks for the info on Delirant ST

  17. Mike N says:

    No idea. Depends who else turns up.

  18. Lescargot says:

    I have been looking at the triumph for something with a price. W Mullins record in the TH is weak. But he has a horse, Stormy Ireland who transferred from France late in 12/December 2017, they ran him 4 days later in a Fairyhouse maiden where he slaughtered a small field and achieved an RPR or 139. The post race comments were: “That was a good performance. I don’t know how much strength in depth there was in the race but you can’t take anything away from her. She’s very professional, jumped, traveled and for a small filly she handled that ground with fierce ease. We’ll stay dreaming” – Danny Mullins, rider of Stormy Ireland. He is entered for the grade 1 juvenile at the weekend in Ireland. he is 12/1 NRNB BOG with bet365.

  19. pablo says:

    Had some Finian’s Oscar for the Stayers’ NRNB

    Looks a pretty winnable renewal of the Cleeve and, if he can regain last season’s hurdles form and he stays, he should win tomorrow. If he doesn’t, connections might change their mind about the Stayers’

  20. Lescargot says:

    Some info on Disko good and bad, in a stable tour in the Weekender N Meade states that Disko is being aimed at the GC, but basically although his setback was minor – ” he is fine now and we are going to try and get him ready for the GC” . Good luck with Finians Oscar today Pablo.

  21. pablo says:

    Hopefully they give the Stayers’ a miss and I get my dosh back!

  22. Lescargot says:

    RE; GC there is a stat which originated from the Weatherby’s Cheltenham guide that no horse has won the GC this century having run on heavy ground that season. That would rule out Sizing John, Blaklion and Definitly Red.Haven’t checked the others. The Gault stats site also states that 14/16 winners were rated 166+ before their win. So far this means that you have:

    Double Shuffle 166
    Cue card 166
    Native River 166
    Bristol 167
    Whisper 167
    Might Bite 169

    Of the Irish Road to Respect was or 163 on its last run in Eirland
    Our Duke raised to 167 following win but beaten 51 lgths LTO
    Coney island 158
    Total Recall 156
    Disko 164 seems the most likely to improve if it runs.

    I have also looked at the ( I am not sure but I believe they
    are unadjusted) RPR’s achieved at the end of the previous season and the penultimate rating before the Gold Cup apart from 2 or three shocks, since 1995 you need to be looking at mid to late 170+

    So at the moment I think its Might Bites to loose, (of course he could decide to go walk about up the hill), with Road To Respect and if he gets there Disko in the frame, because looking at MB’s Dosage and pedigree Montjeu on the sires side and Busted on the dams, he will stay until the cows come home- DP = 1-0-7-8-0 (16) DI = 0.39 CD = -0.38 -.Any views?

  23. TC says:

    can’t have Disko, given how much he’s missed this season – think it would be a bit unfair to chuck him straight at the gold cup, which such an interrupted prep

    Two horses worth taking a chance on with the bookies being NRNB; Simpy the Betts – supreme, his first start over hurdles at newbury was very quick on the clock, where he tanked through it, before not lasting home
    the other Reigning Supreme in the 4 miler, was the horse i was most excited to see over a fence this season. NH has kept him away from winter ground and he’s missed a number of targets, but i think he’s got a lot of ability
    both horses need to show up well on their next starts if they are to go to cheltenham, but definitely two horses to follow

  24. Lescargot says:

    TC thanks for that I’ll have a look at both.

  25. Seven Towers says:

    Quite interested in Delta Work for the Albert Bartlett if he goes. 33/1 looks quite a juicy price given his fine effort on Sunday. Giving Total Recall weight and finishing 19 lengths in front of anything else looks a damn good run from the promising five year old. Being by Network he should appreciate better ground too. One to keep a very close eye on.

  26. Lescargot says:

    I agree backed him ew on Sunday, but GE has Cracking Smart and Dortmund and Blow by Blow all entered for the AB, I notice that DW is as short as 12/1 for the Martin Pipe.

  27. Seven Towers says:

    He looks a stayer though. By Network out of a Video Rock mare, he should stay four miles plus when you consider Saint Are is by the same sire and has the same damsire.

    Maybe the Sefton Novices Hurdle will be right up his straza. Still think On The Blind Side will be going for that too.

  28. Seven Towers says:

    Saying that I can’t not back him in whatever he goes for.

  29. Lescargot says:

    GE won the MP last year with Champagne Classic 6yold, or pre race was 136, who is out of Stowaway. CC had also run in 3m prior to the MP. The 12/1 is NRNB with Bet365.

  30. Seven Towers says:

    On.

  31. Lescargot says:

    Ditto.

  32. Seven Towers says:

    It really does all boil down to Henderson v Ireland now it seems.

  33. Lescargot says:

    It looks that way ST, what a laugh, he ought to be draped in the flag! but what about Wales and Maria’s Benefit, possibly the Twister might help out and Harry Fry with if the Cap Fits and if its soft Malcolm Jeffersons daughter and Waiting Patiently, can you count Movewiththetimes and P Nichols ? as its owned by the great JPM

  34. Seven Towers says:

    Jed O’Keefe possibly but Harrington seems to think she has the one to beat his horse.

  35. pablo says:

    Had some double figure NRNB on Coney Island to win the Ryanair

    Looking forward to seeing him at Ascot next weekend – and Top Notch and Waiting Patiently – some race if they all line up…

  36. Lescargot says:

    ST we have had that debate before, I like SS but I think the big ice cream will beat him.

  37. Lescargot says:

    There are some interesting jockey stats on the ATR website. In particular Davy Russell

    16 Winners-117rides +69.00
    8-37 non h/cap
    8-44 h/c

    If you havent seen them they are worth a look.

  38. Mike N says:

    Been cashing out some of my bets as targets are changing. Yanworth off to either the RSA or the Stayers now rather than JLT. So switched accordingly. His form with Supersundae puts him in the mix for the hurdle race form wise.

  39. Mike N says:

    That should’ve said more likely to win the RSA or Stayers than the JLT. ;)

  40. Corbiere says:

    Special Offer Bet 25 on today’s Special Horse Racing Betting Slip (Today only) in Hills
    Getabird
    Buveur D’air
    Apple’s Jade
    Might Bite
    all must win is 28/1

  41. Mike N says:

    I’ll put my AP portfolio up soon, just gotta do some last minute tweaks. ;)

  42. Mike N says:

    Feel free to put up your AP picks for the festival. :)

  43. Mike N says:

    I guessed right, cashed out my Yanworth chase bets over the weekend, and backed him for the Stayers instead. ;)

  44. Lescargot says:

    Had 6ew at 20/1 on Chris’s Dream nrnb for the Albert Bartlett.

  45. Lescargot says:

    will post AP portfolio soon.

  46. Seven Towers says:

    Supreme – Kalashnikov 14/1 NRNB
    Ankle – Petit Mouchoir 12-1
    Champion Hurdle – My Tent Or Yours @ 11/1 NRNB
    National Hunt Chase – Shattered Love @ 33/1
    Coral Cup – William Henry @ 16/1 NRNB
    RSA – Presenting Percy @ 8/1 NRNB
    Ryanair – Waiting Patiently @ 10/1 NRNB
    Kim Muir – Squouateur @ 10/1 NRNB
    Triumph – Redicean @ 14/1 NRNB
    Albert Bartlett – Chef Des Obeaux @ 20/1 NRNB
    Martin Pipe – Delta Work @ 12/1 NRNB
    Gold Cup – Our Duke @ 14/1 NRNB and Native River @ 7/1 NRNB

    Next Destination to win any race @ 10/1

  47. Seven Towers says:

    Looking forward to watching the ‘Ankle’! ^^^

  48. Seven Towers says:

    Waiting to see where Jenkins and Mercian Prince turn up and that will be all the Kempton winners backed which makes it even more sad that FountaIns Windfall isn’t with us anymore.

  49. Lescargot says:

    4.45 Punchestown to day Delta is running against Eagle Lion.

  50. Seven Towers says:

    Yes, and his price for the Martin Pipe has gone out to 16/1 now too. Another target maybe.

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