Bet365 Gold Cup 2010
Sadly the 09/10 NH Season is drawing to a close and Saturday sees the traditional last big race of the year now called the Bet365
Gold Cup.
To those of us of a certain age this race will always be ‘The Whitbread’ irrespective of new sponsors but whoever has been paying the prizemoney it has always been an ultra-competitive handicap.
In the last ten years the race has been won twice by horses trained by Martin Pipe, Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs with the last named supplying a number of placed horses as well.
Paul Nicholls has six horses left in Saturday’s race at this stage including Grand National runners Nozic and My Will, who was third in the corresponding race in 2007.
Philip Hobbs won the 2006 and 2008 versions of this race with Lacdoudal and Monkerhostin who both could run again and he is also represented with the well backed Fairoak Lad who is a best priced 12/1 with Bet365
Grand National fifth Hello Bud is also a possible runner as is David Pipe’s The Package who will be bidding to put a disappointing run at Aintree behind him.
Let us know who you fancy.








This post has 309 comments
#1
April 19th, 2010 20:00
#215
crisp 73
April 19th, 2009 09:17
Sandown Gold Cup.
16/19 recorded their best ever RPR that season. The three that didn’t had all recorded their best in previous seasons… at Sandown!
18/19, 11/11 recorded an RPR of 137 or more.
17/19 had a chase strike rate of 40% or more- the two that didn’t had placed at 29f or more and carried 10st on the day.
17/19 won/placed at 25f or more.
14/19 10-10 or less to victory.
Four of the five that carried 10-13 or more had;
RPR 163 plus/ TS 156 plus.
OR 152 TO 165
(Puntal odd one out, RPR 149, TS 126 carried 11-4/OR 142,and curiously is only winner not to win/place at 24f)
11/11 top 3 in C1 chase.
#2
April 19th, 2010 20:04
crisp 73
April 20th, 2009 11:00
20/21 winners had a top 2 chase place that season, Monkerhostin didn’t- had a top 3.
20/21 had won 1 of their previous 10 chases, Monkerhostin didn’t so either an anomaly or a slight change in trends.
#3
April 19th, 2010 20:15
Here is a little snippet from the Evening Standard today.”Meanwhile,Williams has ruled Grand National third State Of Play out of Saturday’s Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown.He said:”He’ll have a long break and don’t be surprised if we head straight to Aintree without a prep run with him next year.He goes much better as a fresh horse.”
#4
April 19th, 2010 20:16
Bet365 Gold Cup
AGE
Age 7 to 11 19/20
Age 6 1/20
PRICE
Price 6/1-25/1 20/20
6/1-16/1 18/20
6/1-14/1 17/20
WEIGHT
17/20 10.13 or less
PLACED OR 1ST
1/2/3 in one of last three races 9/10
1/2/3/4 in one of last four races 10/10
#5
April 19th, 2010 20:20
1. Aged 7-11 19/20
2. Carried <11’05 19/20
3. OR 129+ 20/20
4. TS 126+ 17/20
5. RPR 137+ 19/20
6. LTO RPR of 132 if finished 14/20
7. Best RPR in one of last 4 chases 17/20
8. RPR 132+ This season 20/20
9. Season TS of 118+ 16/20
10. Within 5lb of best OR 18/20
11. Top 3 in one of last 3 runs 18/20
12. <46 days since last run 20/20
13. Top 3 finish at Sandown 10/20
14. 11+ chases 15/20
15. 40% place s/r 19/20
16. Class 1 top 3 18/20
17. Won a chase with 10+ runners 17/20
lovin the percentage system
1st Can't Buy Time
2nd Church Island
3rd Palypso de Creek
#6
April 19th, 2010 21:04
Does anyone fancy Air Force One for this.
#7
April 19th, 2010 21:11
I was just about to ask the same thing. Last of the 20s available on AFO…
#8
April 19th, 2010 21:48
TC haven’t considered this one heavily yet..wait a bit til field whittled down a bit..but as with you CAN’T BUY TIME is my initial big fancy..only conern is he’s 11-03 already..
TC, Systems, Miinnehoma thanks for research..
#9
April 19th, 2010 21:50
Think Churchy could put in a good run and he’s due an ‘inny’ lol again as had a cpl ‘outy’s’ recently..
He’s a big fancy too for me..
Systems – GN ante-post withdrawal payback time??
#10
April 19th, 2010 21:58
How important is course form? A few of the horses running at the bottom of the handicap have bits of form at the track without actually winning.
#11
April 19th, 2010 22:17
Don’t know yet, how the field would thin out but I keep away from those who had a hard season.
#12
April 19th, 2010 22:34
For what its worth these are my selections.Its too late to do so now but I will post the whys and wherefores tomorrow:
1. Massasoit
2. The Tother one
3. Kilcrea Castle
4. Erics Charm
5. Lacdoudal
#13
April 20th, 2010 00:02
Corum – Air Force One is totally chucked in on his Hennessy form and probably wins half the track if keeping his jockey on board
#14
April 20th, 2010 00:35
17/21 won at least 1 prep race.
15/21 top 2 in last 3 races.
19/21 top 3 in last 3 races.
02/21 top 3 in last 4 races (had 1st/2nd).
Life Chases 4 – 40.
16/21 had 11+. others 5,4,9,7,5.
Life Chase wins 1 – 10,
17/21 won 3+ chases. others 1,2,1,2.
Prep runs 2 – 11
17/21 had 4+ prep runs. others 3,3,2,3,
Last prep run finish -
5,P,1,2,2,U,U,6,2,2,0,3,2,7,1,U,1,1,1,F(2),3.
#15
April 20th, 2010 01:07
Anyone know what is the max field that will run on Sat?
#16
April 20th, 2010 06:51
Hi,
Not sure how reliable the source is uk-betting-tips.co.uk/showthread.php/27371-bet365-Gold-Cup,but it seems to suggest a maximun of 20 runners,hope this helps.
Monkerhostin, winner of the bet365 Gold Cup two years ago, is among 38 confirmations for Saturday’s Sandown feature.
The veteran is one of five possibles from the Philip Hobbs stable that also includes the 2006 winner Lacdoudal, who was third 12 months ago.
The Minehead handler has also left in Fairoak Lad, Templer and Boychuk.
There were no surprise withdrawals from those at the top of the ante-post market, including The Package. David Pipe’s promising chaser unseated his rider in the Grand National. The Nicholashayne trainer also has Tamarinbleu and Piraya in the prestigious staying handicap chase.
Paul Nicholls has a strong team consisting of The Tother One, My Will, Nozic, Massasoit, Just Amazing and Hoo La Baloo, who was third two years ago.
Other possibles include Sandown specialist Eric’s Charm from Oliver Sherwood’s stable, Jonjo O’Neill’s Can’t Buy Time, the Emma Lavelle-trained Kilcrea Castle and Hello Bud and Irish Raptor from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard.
The final two are among those that need several horses to come out to get in a maximum 20-strong field.
#17
April 20th, 2010 07:22
Showlad…think it’s 20 max….
#18
April 20th, 2010 12:03
Hopefully Nostringsattached will get in the race – McCoy could starve himself and ride instead of Can’t Buy Time – won a Cl chase, will love the ground, got the right rating and placed in a 26f race.
#19
April 20th, 2010 12:16
Any thoughts on Nostringsattached? Looks as though he’ll love the ground and has had a rest, may be waiting for the ground; could he step up in class? Has won 25f with more weight and second to Backstage.
Thoughts?
#20
April 20th, 2010 12:17
J Rambo we must have been writing and reading at the same time!!!! Think he’s nice EW anyway.
#21
April 20th, 2010 12:34
Thanks guys ye 20 max field.
Waiting a bit just now til next decs stage or line-up becomes clearer.
Hopefully we’ll get 5 places with bookies too.
Anyone remember if they offered 5 places last year?
#22
April 20th, 2010 12:47
Not sure whether they did offer 5 last year. If anyone does it will be Bet 365 – yes Jackie, I like this one but fear he won’t get into the race, also, I think we would be taking a bit of a leap of faith on him running well right handed.
#23
April 20th, 2010 12:57
CBT is a likely runner though right?
Also, do you think AFO will get in?
#24
April 20th, 2010 13:03
Hi Brokie. Cant Buy Time (as req lets try and stop letter naming lol)is likley yes and Air Force is in top 20 at weights already.
#25
April 20th, 2010 13:23
Sorry! The letter naming can be quite hard to understand!
Thanks for the info!
#26
April 20th, 2010 14:56
That will be a shame if he (nostringsattached) doesn’t get in, I would have given him an ew chance for the reasons suggested.
#27
April 20th, 2010 22:34
There’s just to much uncertainty for me at the moment.Ive read today in Sportinglife that Palypso De Creek is likely to be withdrawn as a result of the fast drying ground,i just wonder how many others that are currently in,will drop out and also does anyone know when the final decs are ?
#28
April 21st, 2010 08:24
What are people’s views on Fairoak Lad.
Some trends suggest for the bet 365 are:
13 out of 18 ran at cheltenham,
4 out of 10 were novices,
8 out of 10 had won no more than twice all season,
Grand National runners need to be treated with caution,
Favorites have poor records.
Horses with more than 11 stone struggle with only Life of a Lord, Puntal and Lacdoudal succeeded since Dessie. Although only 1 winner has been rated lower than 131 in the last 16 winners.
#29
April 21st, 2010 10:02
Thought it was a field of 30 so have wasted my time looking at the horses at the bottom of the handicap [with Sandown form] so now need to concentrate on horses more likely to get a run. All a bit up in the air at the moment. Fairoak Lad was thew first horse I took an interest in. Like the Scottish last week [although it didn't work out there] I’m keeping an eye on Hobb’s horses, especially if Planet of Sound runs a big race in Ireland. Noticed that Hoo La Baloo [how much promise did that horse show in his novice days] has got a claimer booked already to get his weight down.
#30
April 21st, 2010 10:34
Disappointed to see that Hoo La Baloo is only 14/1; was expecting a bigger price than that. Still might risk an ew, although can’t see him winning at this distance. Less weight than he’s had for years, though.
#31
April 21st, 2010 10:37
Quick ground set to scupper Creek
(UKPA) – 18 hours ago
Palypso De Creek is unlikely to take his chance in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday due to the dry conditions.
Trainer Charlie Longsdon is praying the forecast is wrong and that it does rain, but expects the seven-year-old to be starting his summer break early instead.
Longsdon admitted the ground was too quick for Palypso De Creek in the John Smith’s Grand National, in which the horse fell at the fourth-last fence.
“If it rained he’d go to Sandown, but I don’t think it is going to. There’s none forecast,” said the Chipping Norton handler.
“He’s absolutely fine. It’s just frustrating as we need some rain. If there’s no rain he’ll be out in the field next week to begin a good holiday.
“I was disappointed he came down at Aintree. The ground was too quick, which we knew, but I was pleased with him up to that point.
“He’ll go for staying handicap chases next season on softer ground. He’s ideal for that and there should be plenty of races for him.”
#32
April 21st, 2010 11:46
Yes VERY poor odds across the board at mo – vastly poorer than Scots Nat last week – will have to select with caution and place those lil biscuits wisely lol…
#33
April 21st, 2010 14:47
No one has mentioned Lothian Falcon’s chances? Does no one out there expect a performance?
#34
April 21st, 2010 15:06
Doesn’t look like there is going to be any rain before Saturday. Is it likely that Oliver Sherwood will decide not to run Sandown King Eric??
#35
April 21st, 2010 17:41
There seems to be money going on Lothian Falcon; they were obviously expecting a big run from him last week. Has got a Class 1 place as well, going back a bit. Not guaranteed a run yet though?
#36
April 21st, 2010 18:11
In fact, he’s the only horse being backed at the moment, and William Hills, who usually have the best prices are going 16′s whereas L’s and Corals are 20.
#37
April 21st, 2010 18:15
It’s been over 3 years since his last win though. Any signs he may be coming back into some kind of form?
#38
April 21st, 2010 18:24
Thoughts about Church Island turning his recent form around.
#39
April 21st, 2010 18:28
Didn’t get far enough on Saturday to find out!
#40
April 21st, 2010 18:31
Nothing wrong with Church Island’s form, he’s just poor over hurdles. He’ll be very fresh, put in some great runs in the autumn. Initially thought the GN was the target!! but he’ll definitely be ready to run a big race. The quicker the ground the better and he might be very hard to catch
#41
April 21st, 2010 18:44
I do have him in my top 4, just think he’s not consistant
#42
April 21st, 2010 19:09
Jackie – every time Church Island has been put into a top race he has delivered. He’s performed very well in every major class 1 handicap that he’s taken part in. Wonder if Mr Hourigan will put his young apprentice up
#43
April 21st, 2010 19:16
Intresting to see Planet of Sound won over in Punchestown leaving Denman trailing back in 4th.I’ll probably now take a Hobb’s horse and Fairoak Lad would be the one.Will also look for two more runners but will hang fire until the field has been narrowed,Nostrings may not get in (needs a few to drop out) if not Church Island E/W at 33′s with Bet 365 looks tempting.
#44
April 21st, 2010 19:46
We need a runner with bags of speed <11.05 and who loves Good/Firm or Good, RPR 137+ and probably top 3 in one of last three runs – now who does that fit?
#45
April 21st, 2010 19:58
Cant Buy Time is 16/1 at VC but should the 11.03 put me off,as everything else says BACK ME ??
#46
April 22nd, 2010 09:10
does anyone know when the final decs are?
#47
April 22nd, 2010 09:14
Betfair frozen Brokie so supsect decs are this morn.
Mark Can’t Buy v enticing weight is only neg.
Systems we bothe better be on Churchy (He’s due a good run) – we need to claw back that ante-post loss lol. Oslo stuff coming 2nite.
#48
April 22nd, 2010 10:48
#13
Bauer
Thanks for your thoughts on Air Force One.
#49
April 22nd, 2010 11:47
Showlad looks like Church Island has been laid out for this one. May not win but will give it his all i think (4th last year)- good EW bet.
#50
April 22nd, 2010 11:48
No probs, having asked the question I’m sure I haven’t told you anything you didn’t already know! Just wish he’d completed in Ireland, as he’d have won easy, for his confidence as much as mine!
#51
April 22nd, 2010 11:57
Just wondering if any of you fine people could suggest some decent links with details on this race, the decs, who will run, etc
Thanks in advance!
#52
April 22nd, 2010 12:07
Brokie, RP and attheraces still ahve 38 declared.
#53
April 22nd, 2010 13:26
Theracingpost is good for RPR’S etc; Attheraces show archive races for free and Oddschecker show racecards, somtimes show old races and are quick to get onto, with not having to join or log on etc.
#54
April 22nd, 2010 13:30
Thanks Jackie and Maureen. I check RP and oddschecker regularly, will have another look at attheraces.
Thanks again
#55
April 22nd, 2010 16:13
Eric’s Charm, The Tother one and Massasoit not running.Dec’s to be made tomoz.
#56
April 22nd, 2010 16:14
Eric’s Charm, Massasoit and The T’Other One, non runners.
#57
April 22nd, 2010 16:14
I’m too slow
#58
April 22nd, 2010 16:19
You got RP website on the go with ATR on TV in the background to then Bauer??!!
;0)
#59
April 22nd, 2010 16:25
That’s the one!! haha
#60
April 22nd, 2010 17:46
Cheers Showlad
I think at 14/1 its worth a risk,especially on good to firm ground.
Also with Erics Charm,Massasoit,T’Other One being withdrawn and probably Palypso De Creek to follow,Nostringsattached may yet sneak in.Will hang fire until the final decs,before picking my 3rd and final horse.
#61
April 22nd, 2010 17:51
Keeping my fingers crossed for Nostringsattached.
#62
April 23rd, 2010 05:33
So…only one day to go! Who’s in everyones top 3?
1. Can’t Buy Time
2. Church Island
3. Fairoak Lad
#63
April 23rd, 2010 06:48
1) Can’t Buy Time
2) Fairoak Lad
3) Kilcrea Castle
Im still not sure why Kilcrea Castle is in my top 3,its done nothing special,i guess its just a gut feeling…lol
#64
April 23rd, 2010 07:59
Its between Church Island and Can’t Buy Time for me. Want to add a cover bet – may be lacdoudal after his x-country effort. Church Island really deserves a big win, and being fresh he could really run away with the race
#65
April 23rd, 2010 08:42
Betting suspended on a few of the sites…Final Decs going on now?
#66
April 23rd, 2010 08:53
TC you and I seem to be hitting same note again – let’s hope we have the success of Always Waining again
Doing my indepth study when I get decs.
Brokie yes final decs being announced this morn.
TC – do we know if Churchy is an intended runner?
Brokie/TC my initial Top 3 which could well change after decs and my indepth studying is…
Can’t Buy Time
Church Island
Templer (may well not get in)
#67
April 23rd, 2010 09:10
Showlad – another Always Waining result would really cap off a great season for me
Looking through the RP site, it would seem McCoy has already opted to ride Cant Buy Time. Although not hearing any news, I’d think Church Island is a definite runner. Taken out of the Irish nat and has got his ground tomorrow. Will be very fresh in comparison to most others. Dont be put off if Hourigan puts his young apprentice on top – he’s a top jock claiming 7lb
Hows the Eurovision work going
#68
April 23rd, 2010 09:14
Thanks TC Churchy is place/winner defo if on form. Big if lol.
Re Euro very well. You got a link to an email for you?
#69
April 23rd, 2010 09:40
My top 3 at the mo.
Can’t buy time
Curch Island
Nostringsattached. (If he gets in)
Maybe Air force one.
#70
April 23rd, 2010 09:45
showlad – Churchy always on song for his big targets
Dont think i can provide an e-mail link, lets hope the old one is safe enough on here!! topcat_1087@~~~~~.
#71
April 23rd, 2010 09:46
yahhhhoooooooooooo
#72
April 23rd, 2010 09:51
Cant buy time isnt running
#73
April 23rd, 2010 09:57
OC has listed the following 20 runners:
Just Amazing
Fairoak Lad
The Package
Kilcrea Castle
Lacdoudal
Hoo La Baloo
Air Force One
Hello Bud
Lothian Falcon
Nostringsattached
Tamarinbleu
Monkerhostin
Killyglen
Alderburn
Irish Raptor
Nozic
Church Island
Piraya
My Will
Martys Mission
#74
April 23rd, 2010 09:57
Skybet go:
6.00 Fairoak Lad
7.00 Just Amazing
10.00 The Package
10.00 Kilcrea Castle
12.00 Lacdoudal
13.00 Hoo La Baloo
13.00 Hello Bud
15.00 Air Force One
15.00 Lothian Falcon
17.00 Nostringsattached
17.00 Tamarinbleu
21.00 Monkerhostin
26.00 Alderburn
26.00 Irish Raptor
26.00 Killyglen
29.00 Nozic
34.00 Church Island
34.00 Piraya
34.00 My Will
34.00 Martys Mission
Early bet on Nostringsattached @ 33/1
Will take best price today too
Plus savers on Tamarinbleu & Alderburn
Good luck with bets
#75
April 23rd, 2010 09:57
I think Just Amazing will like the ground, however he has no C1 1/2/3. Same concern with Fairiak Lad. He was 4th, but was left 4th in Cls 1.
Prob wrong!! : )
#76
April 23rd, 2010 10:09
Crikey..no CAN’T BUY TIME??
Thanks for SKYBET info Pablo – have just lumped on Churchy ew
#77
April 23rd, 2010 10:12
Crikey can’t believe Churchy Island Irish Nat runner-up, 4th in this last year, stamina king, loves ground is at 33s still with Sky..
#78
April 23rd, 2010 10:15
done the same Showlad, AP Heskin takes off 7lb as well
Nostringsattached jumps to 2nd choice
#79
April 23rd, 2010 10:20
Yer special agent TC, I don’t think there will be any middle ground – he’ll steam ahead and either break them down or at least be guaranteed a place or he’s gonna put in a stinker – but,as he’s SURELY been laid out for this one – no English or Irish Nat this year and hurdles preps – I believe and hope it’s the latter.
#80
April 23rd, 2010 10:29
Aaaaaah..Churchy into 25s now
#81
April 23rd, 2010 10:35
Can’t believe Can’t Buy Time has been omitted! Church Island into 25′s…
#82
April 23rd, 2010 10:38
Will McCoy run on Nostringsattached then??
#83
April 23rd, 2010 10:39
I’ve been following Martys Mission for a while now. Owner said he was his best bet of the meeting at Cheltenham, only for him to PU. No chance on paper but the trainer has won this race before. At least it looks as if he’ll run; backed him when I thought there were 30 horses in the race! [idiot..]
#84
April 23rd, 2010 10:41
showlad – did you get my e-mail add?
Can’t McCoy do the weight for NSA?
#85
April 23rd, 2010 10:46
Great early price on Nostrings Pablo. Half that price now. Maureen, I can’t remenber why, but Martys mission got in my last 6 too along with Boychuck (non runner)
#86
April 23rd, 2010 10:48
50/1 at 365 NRNB.
#87
April 23rd, 2010 10:57
Gonna try now TC – .com or .uk?
#88
April 23rd, 2010 11:02
cheers mr showlad – uk
#89
April 23rd, 2010 11:09
Jackie, guess we are both sitting pretty on nostrings now?!
#90
April 23rd, 2010 11:17
Looks like its just amazing to me, however not done a proper study yet!
#91
April 23rd, 2010 11:19
My three are: Air force One ,Church Island and Nostringsattached.
#92
April 23rd, 2010 11:43
J Rambo, let’s hope he does the job, got Church Island, Air Force One ew. Also tiny ew on Martys Mission, can’t remember why I liked him, just know he’s not been scratched out on my list! No real reasons as Maureen has.
#93
April 23rd, 2010 12:08
Tamarinbleu has high class form in the book and ran well lto. Should be considered if he hasn’t been mentioned already.
#94
April 23rd, 2010 12:17
Bauer, Pablo said he has saver on him. : )
#95
April 23rd, 2010 12:19
I’ve backed, The Package (wgt 11-3 but he’s class) Also backed Piraya at a nice price along with Nostringsattached. The Package my no.1 tho.
#96
April 23rd, 2010 12:34
Bauer – agree about Tamarinbleu – thrown in on very best form – slight doubts about whether he will see out the trip but normally a reliable jumper, which helps at Sandown, and D.E. Pipe helps too – looks like a plot
Also and admittedly not anywhere near the same league I have thrown a small win saver at Alderburn who likes fast ground and is below his last winning mark and could be there or thereabouts – doubts about trip though, but trainer back among winners recently
Nostringsattached main bet for me – obvious claims off a low weight – unexposed horse, likes fast ground, won right-handed, Jonjo etc
#97
April 23rd, 2010 13:36
I’m having an ew on Alderburn as well. The sort of ‘nearly’ horse that I always felt would win something one day. I think Henry Daly is having a few winners at the moment as well. I’ve missed the price on Nostringsattached, but I’m really pleased for those who backed him before today! Still can’t see Hoo La Baloo getting this trip, but his owner has flown in to watch his horses [although maybe he's come to see Martys Mission win!!].
#98
April 23rd, 2010 15:20
Does anyone know what excuses were given for Hoo La Baloo in last year’s renewal when it was PU bf please? Did connections offer any explanation?
#99
April 23rd, 2010 15:29
Hey Team.
Showlad’s Fan 4 against the field:
THE PACKAGE
Hottest package in the field – stamina, class and would be worthy winner of this tradition steeped race.
CHURCH ISLAND
This has obviosuly been the target super weight and 7lb claimant on board. Will love the ground, the distance, the course. IF not on an off day and has his big race face on – he is guaranteed a place and could pummel them down into submission with relentless front running. Time for the Irish National silver medallist to step up a place on the podium.
NO STRINGS ATTACHED
Has to be progressive to win this. Needs more conviction in the closing stages over these long distances for me but he will love the ground and this race could just be the making of him.
LACDOUDAL
Previous winner is in good form and cannot be discounted. Class act and will loev ALL about tomorrow’s race.
#100
April 23rd, 2010 16:21
Im gutted to come home and find out Can’t Buy Time is not running
Ive had to switch to plan B and ive taken Fairoak Lad,No Strings Attached,Kilcrea Castle and Church Island who is out at 33′s with Vic Chandler.
Good Luck to you all for Tomorrow
#101
April 23rd, 2010 16:43
Two against the field
The Package – has it all.
Church Island – EW (probably wont win but excellent EW bet)
Showlad we seem to be using the same data again!!!
Air Force One also possible – a big one due sometime (same with CH)
#102
April 23rd, 2010 17:21
Thedeed is done; the moneys down. Martys Mission [rubbish, won't stay, not good enough]; Hoo La Balloo [good enough but won't stay]; Church Island [will stay and good enough but not in very good form this year]; Alderburn [might just stay and might be good enough at the weight], and Nostringsattached [bit worried about why he's run badly the last 2 times, but he's been running in Class 1 and 2's and I don't understand why he's got so little weight]. Really hope that those on Nostringsattached at amazing prices can collect or that people can get their ante post National money back on Church Island. Good luck everybody!
#103
April 23rd, 2010 17:26
Hope you dont mind me changing the subject very briefly…has any read the following book….. The New Complete Manual of Racing and Betting Systems ??,is it worth buying as im thinking of purchasing it in order to pick up some more knowledge about horseracing and betting
#104
April 23rd, 2010 17:27
Good Luck Maureen…i only managed 14′s on Nostrings,but to be honest i didnt think he’d get in.
#105
April 23rd, 2010 17:48
Same here Mark, didn’t want to lose money on another ante post bet. Have 14′s now though.
#106
April 23rd, 2010 17:48
For anyone who is waiting I do have a selection for this race but I am travelling at the moment and trying to get the write up done. It will be posted here either later tonight or asap tomorrow.
#107
April 23rd, 2010 17:49
really do like Church Island for the race – he’s a cracking each way bet. very close 4th last year after having his irish national exploits and continued the improvement last autumn
Not sure about The Package, and whether he will have recovered from his grand national experience although his only run at sandown, he came 2nd to a pretty decent hurdler!!
Mark B – dont know anything about the book, but all i can say about racing and betting in general is that it is like most things. The more homework put in, the more rewarding it becomes
#108
April 23rd, 2010 18:09
Alright lets take a proper look,
Age nothing older than 11 has won in the entire history of the race,
so out goes Monkerhostin & Hello Bud.
Those aged 11 have only an 8% chance in 50 years worth of data, (on average 1 a decade, apart from the 1960′s).
Caution is adviced on Church Island (who runs well in Ireland, but when he came over to Ffos Las ran a stinker, he has ran in 2 hurdle races probabaly to sharpen him up and before that was Halloween so might be fresh).
Lacdoudal seems to like Sandown, but age could be catching him, put an effort in last year but was just not enough. Trying to follow Larbawn (1968, 1969), Diamond Edge (1979, 1981), Topsham Bay (1992, 1993*) and Ad Hoc (2001, 2003) in becoming a dual winner, although Topsham Bay second win was through the stewards when Givus a Buck was demoted.
Lothian Falcon unseated early in scottish national, so might still be a relative fresh horse.
Alderburn & Irish Raptor make up the 11 year olds.
Weight only 3 have succeeded with 11 stone plus since Dessie in 1988 they were Life Of A Lord in 1996 carrying 11-10, Puntal in 2004 carrying 11-04 and Lacdoudal in 2006 carrying 11-05.
So its most likely the heavy weights will fall (not literatly).
So that takes out Killyglen, My Will, Nozic, Tamarinbleu, The Package and Air Force One out of the remaining horse.
Out of the last 10, 8 had no more than 2 wins this stat will see off Just Amazing (quite keen on that one), Fairoak Boy,
Novices have won 4 from the last ten.
Marty Mission, meets all these stats and at 33/1 with Ladbrokes and VC must be an each way bet.
My other two are Just Amazing and Church Island if he puts his best (hoof) forward.
#109
April 23rd, 2010 18:28
Yet again weight used as a huge black mark regardless of the quality of the horse.
Remember Aintree?
#110
April 23rd, 2010 18:30
1.church island
2.nostringsattached
3.tamarinbleu
4.my will
i think my will is due a good run
#111
April 23rd, 2010 18:32
My Will’s knackered and going hunter chasing after this race?
#112
April 23rd, 2010 18:38
What if the only Andy Stewart horse that I’ve not backed wins; My Will? Having said that, the poor horse had a torrid time in the National, and I always thought of him as a soft ground horse [certainly when he was younger]. Maybe Mr Stewart HAS flown in to watch MM. My 50 pence ew is looking better by the minute!
#113
April 23rd, 2010 18:44
oh yer ps ….. happy ST GEORGES day everyone, well whats left of it…. good luck for tommorrow , ill be interested to see who you flag up tommorrow rascal.
#114
April 23rd, 2010 19:02
Showla, what’s all the talk about Eurovision? Is there a separate thread, are there trends, a good bet to be had?? : )
#115
April 23rd, 2010 19:16
Jackie; Eurovision was brilliant last year. The winner was tipped on here ages before the contest! I have never been interested in Eurovision before, but watched all the run up to it last year and was glued to the telly on the night. My rank outsider, Iceland, came second, but I didn’t have a bet on.
#116
April 23rd, 2010 19:25
Thanks I’ll keep my eyes peeled for the action then! Thanks
#117
April 23rd, 2010 19:42
Bauer, this is literally the end of the season race. A lot of the top weights have been aimed at Aintree and Air Force One just not good enough and Monkerhostin who won for me a few runs ago is just too old.
At Aintree the was those over 11 stone had quality and picking the right one was tough, this race the top weight apart from The package doesn’t look good enough and he might have left his race at Aintree.
#118
April 23rd, 2010 19:45
14′s isnt that bad is it Jackie,especially if it wins
)
Cheers TC im prepared to watch,read,listen and learn.Glad i stumbled across this blog as well,as its proving to be a goldmine of helpful advice.
#119
April 23rd, 2010 19:53
Happy enough, Mark : )
#120
April 23rd, 2010 20:05
Good posting as always , awaiting the Rascals tip with baited breath , good luck all for tomorrow . Im already on NSA , Church I & MM. Hoping the Rascal goes for 1 of them !
#121
April 23rd, 2010 21:44
Okay apologies for any glaring errors. Need to get this up and any errors made don’t affect the selection. Sorry this write-up has had to be done at speed but I hope it serves. Good luck.
#122
April 23rd, 2010 22:02
DAYS SINCE LAST RUN – TOO LONG AWAY
As The Rascal looks at the stats and data for the last fifteen winners of the Bet365 Gold Cup the most striking trend is that relating to the amount of days since the winner was last seen. No winner has lingered from the race track for more than seven weeks which should make the race impossible to win for TAMARINBLEU, KILCREA CASTLE and HOO LA BALOO. Does that stand up to scrutiny, however?
TAMARINBLEU – second to CHIEF DAN GEORGE back in February but has been conspicuous in his absence since and it may be he is not the great staying chaser he once shaped up to be. Has not won for over two years and The Rascal doesn’t fancy him to amend that here.
KILCREA CASTLE – a few months ago The Rascal was touting KILCREA CASTLE as being a possible contender for the Aintree Grand National but the horse has since swerved not only Aintree but Fairyhouse and Ayr as well and The Rascal has serious questions over his ability to stay.
HOO LA BALOO – a cracking horse and lively at Sandown but pulled up in this last year . The last fifteen winners had all won this race at the first time of asking and with such a lengthy lay off there are too many question marks to support a breach in that argument.
DAYS SINCE LAST RUN – TOO MUCH TOO SOON
HOT WELD had raced in, and won, the Scottish National a week previous to winning at Sandown. AD HOC had also ventured to Ayr, seven days before, and finished second.
Returners from the Scottish National featured in this year’s card did not fare so well, however, and face elimination here.
KILLYGLEN – needs to come down in the ratings much further before he has a real chance of winning again.
LOTHIAN FALCON – five pounds lighter than when fifth last year but this season has not gone well. Unseated early at Ayr and it’s probably best to see how he turns out next term than take a punt on LOTHIAN FALCON winning the last big race of the season.
SEASON FORM
This race has proved to be very much a last chance saloon for winners, with many having calamitous season form before winning in their last race of the season – MONKERHOSTIN (2008), AD HOC (2001), EULOGY (1999) and CALL IT A DAY (1998) all went into this race without a season victory.
The trick here, though, is to look for some small evidence of ability or willing (since all fifteen had found enough to place at least third in the previous year).
This leaves The Rascal unable to back NOZIC or IRISH RAPTOR.
NOZIC – is starting to fall down the ratings and will win again one day but would want some cut in the ground to compete and is probably still too high in the weights for this.
IRISH RAPTOR – back on a more hospitable rating after being hiked up for the Grand National but there are doubts over his jumping and ability to stay this far.
OFFICIAL RATING
The OR of the last fifteen winners has ranged from JACK HIGH’s 129 right up to LIFE OF A LORD’s 165. Ignoring those extremes gives us a range of 131 to 153 which neatly eliminates MONKERHOSTIN (156).
MONKERHOSTIN – The 2008 winner has only won once since, albeit at Sandown, and will be carrying almost a stone more than when victorious two years ago. This race is still awaiting a twelve year old winner, let alone a thirteen year old, and this is too much of an ask at this stage in the horse’s career.
THE AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL
Four of our remaining hopefuls raced in the Aintree Grand National but doing so would not normally mean automatic disqualification for this race. A run in the big one has been true of three previous winners in the last fifteen years.
PUNTAL and AD HOC both unseated at the nineteenth at Aintree whilst LIFE OF A LORD went on to finish seventh before following up with a win in the Sandown Gold Cup.
The two main facts are that all three made the second circuit and, most importantly, they all got at least a three week break before turning up and winning at Sandown.
This combination of history puts The Rascal off all – yes, ALL – of this year’s Sandown entries that also lined up for the Aintree Grand National .
MY WILL – didn’t get much of the race at Aintree, falling at the fourth, and hasn’t won for four years now so probably needs a few more pounds to come off before being able to get competitive at the front again.
THE PACKAGE – unseated at the 19th as PUNTAL and AD HOC have before him. Could this be an omen? The Rascal feels that THE PACKAGE ran his heart out at Cheltenham and Aintree and Sandown has come a week too soon for him to land another much deserved win.
PIRAYA – has a lot to prove following his Warwick win in February, completed the Grand National although always behind and is another The Rascal feels would have benefitted from an extra week off.
HELLO BUD – HELLO BUD ran an absolute blinder to finish fifth in the Grand National, with the ground so fast he is likely to fade late on in this, however, and a longer break is needed.
GOING
Sandown looks like being on the good to good to firm this Saturday and The Rascal prefers to swerve from another who might not suit the fast conditions.
CHURCH ISLAND – much has been expected of this eleven year old this season but he has surprisingly stayed away from all the major nationals. The Rascal has stated previously that this race has often proved a last chance saloon but CHURCH ISLAND has not done enough to merit support and a win would be a major shock now.
So The Rascal’s view is that the only possible winners of the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown are JUST AMAZING, FAIROAK LAD, KILLYGLEN, AIR FORCE ONE, MARTYS MISSION, NOSTRINGSATTACHED, LACDOUDAL, LOTHIAN FALCON and ALDERBURN.
The latter stage of this analysis involves comparing our remaining hopefuls’ achievements with those of a similar age that have won this race in the last fifteen years.
SIX AND SEVEN YEAR OLD’s
The 2002 victor BOUNCE BACK is included in this profile despite the lack of a six year old entrant in this year’s race.
The seven year olds that concluded their season with a win in this race at Sandown are LACDOUDAL (2006), AD HOC (2001) and BEAU (2000).
The Rascal’s two remaining contenders, within the age range, who seek to emulate them are the two favorites JUST AMAZING and FAIROAK LAD.
The Criteria
Chase Wins – the previous four winners in this category had all scored between 1 and 4 chase victories but, notably, the three seven year olds had either three or four. A definite positive for JUST AMAZING who already has four chase wins compared to FAIROAK LAD’s two.
Chase Runs – again six year old BOUNCE BACK is the exception from the 7-17 chase runs experience of the seven year old winners, BOUNCE BACK had four which puts him on a par with FAIROAK LAD. JUST AMAZING is within the preferred bracket, with eight.
Other factors – FAIROAK LAD needs a nine pound improvement on his best OR win and JUST AMAZING looks the best proposition of the two and makes the final shortlist.
EIGHT YEAR OLD’S
Eight year olds have had the best of this race in the last decade and a half, with five winners – HENNESSY (2009), HOT WELD (2007), PUNTAL (2004), CALL IT A DAY (1998) and HARWELL LAD (1997). According to this analysis only three can add further strength to the majority – KILLYGLEN, AIR FORCE ONE and MARTY’S MISSION
The Criteria
Longest Distance Chase Win – all previous eight year old victors in the period had enjoyed success in a chase at 21 furlongs or more. MARTY’S MISSION is lacking here.
Season Form – all the eight year old winners had achieved at least a second in the season of their victory so AIR FORCE ONE is guilty on this account.
Other Factors – KILLYGLEN is carrying too much weight and is not fancied after pulling up at Ayr a week ago.
The Rascal suggests that an eight year old will not win this year’s renewal.
NINE YEAR OLD’s
AD HOC (2003), EULOGY (1999) and CACHE FLEUR (1995) all won at nine years of age and NOSTRINGSATTACHED is the only remaining entry left in this category.
Where does he fall down?
Chase Wins – 2 compared to a 3 minimum for the age group.
All Wins – 3 compared to a four minimum.
Longest Chase Win – 23 furlongs compared to a 25 furlong minimum.
Chase Runs – 8 compared to an 11 minimum.
Chase Places – 3 compared to a 6 minimum.
Right Handed – just one win on a right handed circuit when all other nine year old winners of this race had secured three.
It doesn’t look good, does it, so let’s move on.
TEN YEAR OLD’s
No ten year olds have progressed to this stage of The Rascal’s analysis but the relevant previous winners are JACK HIGH (2005) and LIFE OF A LORD (1996)
ELEVEN YEAR OLD’s
With only MONKERHOSTIN (2008) to compare against this is a difficult bracket and is restrictive. Maybe LACDOUDAL, LOTHIAN FALCON and ALDERBURN can fill that out for next year. Can they?
The Criteria
Chase Wins – LOTHIAN FALCON has three whereas MONKERHOSTIN had four.
All Wins – None of the three match up to MONKERHOSTIN’s ten wins prior to victory.
Class – ALDERBURN has only secured a Class 3 victory, MONKERHOSTIN had a Class 1 and so do the other two.
Since Last Run – MONKERHOSTIN needed a 46 day lay-off before winning this so maybe two weeks for LOTHIAN FALCON and just one for ALDERBURN is not enough.
Strike Rate – ALDERBURN’s strike rate in chases is just 47.6% compared to MONKERHOSTIN’s 61.5% at the time.
Season Form – MONKERHOSTIN had placed third twice in his season races before winning at Sandown in his fourth race of the season, LOTHIAN FALCON’s form is a dismal unplaced, unseated.
Little to lust about amongst the eleven year olds then.
THE SHORTLIST
Laughably The Rascal has a shortlist of one and it is JUST AMAZING…
He means to say that the selection is called JUST AMAZING and he hopes it will prove just that.
The only chink is a lack of a chase victory on a right-handed track (12 from 15 can boast this) but the ability to act on the faster ground outweighs this (plus a right handed hurdles win at Exeter).
The Rascal does not feel entitled to give further selections for each way bets when there are about fourteen that can go well here.
If an each way bet on JUST AMAZING is affordable at the price then hope that the 87.5% chase strike rate will make a small profit.
If not then consider that the easy victory ten days ago may well have been a strategic warm up for the next Bet365 Gold Cup Winner and don’t quarter your stake.
And if you hold to the favorites not doing so well?
JUST AMAZING may not be favorite tomorrow morning.
#123
April 23rd, 2010 22:19
O well….thanks Rascal for an indepth analysis …. ; )
#124
April 23rd, 2010 23:44
As with Meanus Dandy at Ayr, if Just Amazing was trained by anyone else he’d be 20/1.
#125
April 24th, 2010 05:44
Thanks for write up Rascal , sticking with my 3 , but will also have a saver on this to cover my other bets , good luck to all
#126
April 24th, 2010 06:13
A great write up Rascal and interesting reading to a novice like myself.Unfortunately my bets are already on…but good luck one and all.
#127
April 24th, 2010 07:38
Hi Guys & girls,Very hard call today so i’ve split my stake on NOSTRINGSATTACHED & AIR FORCE ONE.My stand out bet on trends today is PACO BOY 3-40 SANDOWN and 6-4 looks a steal.Good luck all
#128
April 24th, 2010 08:54
Thanks to everyone thats posted their thoughts on this one.Good luck to all.Time will tell.
#129
April 24th, 2010 09:05
killyglen had a good second recently if he is having a positive ride today worth a nibble each way at 40/1 i think !!
#130
April 24th, 2010 09:10
TC’S selections;
Church Island E/W
Nostringsattached
small savers on The Package and Lacdoudal
Most fearful of Tamarinbleu
g/l all
#131
April 24th, 2010 09:12
i had a double with merigo and erics charm for today have i lost my money or do i still get money from merigo back ??
#132
April 24th, 2010 10:31
GOODLUCK today everyone!!! Then we can sit back and retire…until next season
#133
April 24th, 2010 10:46
The Package is jumping out at me and i’ve taken the plunge at 9-1!!!
#134
April 24th, 2010 11:17
Get yourself on Church Island Whacky – today’s OUTSTANDING ew bet
#135
April 24th, 2010 11:27
mr.frisk
i think im right in saying because you had a double and one was a non runner im sure the other will go down as a single bet
#136
April 24th, 2010 11:29
Rather tempted to top up my bet on Church Island. Horse seems to have been ignored everywhere except here.
#137
April 24th, 2010 11:35
Many contestants vying for our pennies today team.
The odds on offer are much poorer on a race that doesn’t test as far as the Scots and therefore leaves the wide door open.
Value is thin on the ground. Place only bets may be value in prev champ Monkerhostin who’s had a good season and My Will, twice third, may be fired up with this his last main run today – despite a very poor season.
Church Island though is hugely sticking out like a sore thumb and his ew value is totally out of synch with the poor odds on offer as the Irish Nat runner-up will love the ground, the stamina, is on a featherweight (with 7lb claimer on board) and was 4th here last year.
Hello Bud has all the creds for a win here but his GN 5th maybe will have taken its toll on the gallant 12 year old.
Good Luck all!!
#138
April 24th, 2010 11:36
just thinking the same maureen
#139
April 24th, 2010 11:40
Maureen, the reason a lot pick Church Island on here,is probably for sentimental reasons.
#140
April 24th, 2010 11:41
with you on my will.showlad just think he will sneak a place gut feeling
#141
April 24th, 2010 11:49
Neil I do not pick Church Island at all for sentimental reasons whatsoever.
In the last 13 months he has been the Irish National runner-up, the Kerry National runner-up and he was 4th here last year.
Hurdles prep some would argue to get weight and mark down – which it is and you could view he has been laid out for this one.
#142
April 24th, 2010 11:58
Yes Sling a good 2nd in the down raoyal at start of season, then a decent enough 7th to Denman in the Hennessy and the his season has just gone a bit tits up lol from then on in.
However his class cannot be discounted and he is my tip for value ew bet of the day along with Church Island. Twice 3rd in his outings in this one and it could be the case of a plcae again and at lovely ew odds.
#143
April 24th, 2010 11:59
no sentimental reasons for Church Island with me
proven stamina
wants quick ground
better horse than last year
fresh
performed well in every classs 1 event
great claimer on board
massive e/w shout
#144
April 24th, 2010 12:02
Jackie Eurovision link request:
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=29193&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
#145
April 24th, 2010 12:04
TC what do we amke of Church’s jockey?
2 poorish previous runs but hopefully is getting to know the horse now…
#146
April 24th, 2010 12:13
showlad – Blinkers are always left off for Churchy over hurdles, back on today
. Not worried about those hurdle performances whatsoever – they’re just for fitness
As for the jock, i think he’s going a long way, taking a lot of rides for mr hourigan now, fantastic performane on A New Story in the x-country and well worth his claim. Hopefully he increases his reputation today
#147
April 24th, 2010 12:14
I don’t think Church Island is a sentimental bet for most. I tend to [stupidly] look at a 3m7f race as closer to 3m than 4 and, because of this have actually backed some doubtful stayers. Any horse with guaranteed stamina has to be in with a shout. Wishing I’d backed Lacdoudal as well, but I’ve got to draw the line somewhere. Seeing the closing stages of last previous races, horses were just running out of gas in the closing stages.
#148
April 24th, 2010 12:25
Yer Mo – hope you don’t mind me calling you Mo
-it’s gonna be the class horse today or the stamina horse who will pummel the opposition over the long treck.
Gonna be a fast one today and stamina is KEY!
Thanks for info TC.
#149
April 24th, 2010 12:27
Admin: would be great if you post up a ‘Grand National Blog touch base’ thread etc for us to check in with each other over the months whilst we await the jumps to kick again after today.
#150
April 24th, 2010 12:39
We’ve still got all the ‘Summer’ Nationals as well. [oh, and I also love the Ebor. We went to it last year so I followed all the horses in the run up to it, thankfully backing Sesenta on the day].
#151
April 24th, 2010 12:47
[perhaps Admin needs a holiday, though!]
#152
April 24th, 2010 12:52
admin do you do a world cup thread .for the football and what about you guys and girls ?
#153
April 24th, 2010 13:01
package fav ?
#154
April 24th, 2010 13:10
Thanks Showlad. J
#155
April 24th, 2010 13:13
The Pipes are winning everything this afternoon…..
#156
April 24th, 2010 13:36
You’re right Maureen, Pipe again.
#157
April 24th, 2010 13:38
loving the drifting price on just amazing but copped out and took 10/1 at will hills, hope i did right. now at an each way price so get on the one who’ll love this ground if u can.
#158
April 24th, 2010 13:39
pipe to make it 4/4, surely not…
proper gamble on tamarinbleu!
#159
April 24th, 2010 13:49
Of the standing dishes my preference would be Hello Bud. Off a 6lb lower mark than in the GN and with Sam TD now able to claim the 7lb, he’s nearly a stone better off!
I expect all of Air Force One, Fairoak Lad, Just Amazing, Kilcrea Castle and Marty’s Mission to improve for the step up in trip.
However, with Hello Bud and Church Island setting a likely strong gallop a few of those improvers might find their jumping exposed.
I’m most interested in Kilcrea Castle but see very little value in the market so it’s probably a ‘no-bet’ for me. Maybe Marty’s Mission a place.
#160
April 24th, 2010 14:06
Churchy into 16s and 18s !!
#161
April 24th, 2010 14:08
Okay my bets are on:
Just Amazing, win.
Marty Mission Ew ,
Church Island Ew, sentimental reasons, lol.
#162
April 24th, 2010 14:17
GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#163
April 24th, 2010 14:17
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#164
April 24th, 2010 14:18
#40
TC
April 21st, 2010 18:31
Nothing wrong with Church Island’s form, he’s just poor over hurdles. He’ll be very fresh, put in some great runs in the autumn. Initially thought the GN was the target!! but he’ll definitely be ready to run a big race. The quicker the ground the better and he might be very hard to catch
#165
April 24th, 2010 14:19
Here’s to sentiments, and he won it well.
#166
April 24th, 2010 14:19
GET IN !!!!!! Churchy,what a fantastic run he put in.Honestly i would not of picked him other,than reading posts from Showlad & TC and others…Just want to say BIG BIG thanks to you all
#167
April 24th, 2010 14:19
Go on Churchy….wooooooop wooooop
#168
April 24th, 2010 14:20
Thanks to all.
#169
April 24th, 2010 14:20
I hope you’re all sentimental now Neil
Systemsman 1 month later – BUT WE WERE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well done other main tipper TC
#170
April 24th, 2010 14:21
Showlad a legend well done fella , great tipping , only had small bit on it e/w but none the less happy days
#171
April 24th, 2010 14:21
CHURCHY!!!!!!!! Get in there!!
#172
April 24th, 2010 14:21
Well done lads, hope you got your national stakes back. Looked like a plot that came good that one
#173
April 24th, 2010 14:23
Now, what price for the Grand National 2011? hehe
#174
April 24th, 2010 14:23
Well done to all those that backed and thanks to everyone on this site
#175
April 24th, 2010 14:23
His form at Ffos Las at start of season was hardly encouraging, lucky he didn’t turn up, it was the church island who was second to Niche Market.
#176
April 24th, 2010 14:23
Wow wow and wow again! Congratulations guys and gals.
#177
April 24th, 2010 14:24
Guys the Showlad takes his hat off today – hope you were all on.
My 4 against field 1st and 3rd and my value place only tip in Monkerhostin – 4th.
Cracking main race conclusion to the jumps season.
#178
April 24th, 2010 14:25
lets get the beers out well done guys
#179
April 24th, 2010 14:25
Can we win it? Yes we can!
#180
April 24th, 2010 14:26
Well done team.
#181
April 24th, 2010 14:26
Yes Ewok, but will watch my ante-post fingers – I was burned on him at this year’s GN. Nice to get a lil penny back.
Well done the team – we get there together, don’t we??
#182
April 24th, 2010 14:27
OK guys that’s the team cracked the Irish, Scots, now Bet365 – let’s try GN 2011 shall we?
#183
April 24th, 2010 14:28
Why o why has he not been aimed at the Grand national!!
#184
April 24th, 2010 14:29
What you mean we need to wait until Dec for all this banter and tipping again ??? BOOOOOOOOOOOO ! Until then be safe , healthy and lucky and happy moderate punting till then .
#185
April 24th, 2010 14:29
Beats me TC but mind you if this was hedged at as the best plan then hats off they were right
#186
April 24th, 2010 14:30
Thanks again to all contributors. Backed 3including Church Island! Nice one!
#187
April 24th, 2010 14:30
Woo hoooooo, thank you everyone. I had him down in my last 4 but wasn’t confident untill everyone said he’d be fine, so many, many, thanks. You don’t know how much that meant to me, thanks all.
#188
April 24th, 2010 14:33
Thanks so much to all on here great guys n gals and very talented ‘lil bunch to boot, aren’t we?
All parts make us one great ‘lil Grand National body.
Let’s keep checkin in and not be a ‘fair weather team’ lol.
GO THE TEAM FOR GRAND NATIONAL 2011!
#189
April 24th, 2010 14:37
Showlad,nice one mate.
#190
April 24th, 2010 14:38
I must swallow my pride and say that the last two weeks tipping on this blog has been nothing short of remarkable…My sincerest apologies to anyone I caused offence to in the last few weeks…Was going through personal stuff…Guess what im having for dinner?????….MY WORDS!!!:)Well done everyone!
#191
April 24th, 2010 14:39
Nice to have you back in the fold Mike – hope all better now. U on winner today?
#192
April 24th, 2010 14:41
Respect.
#193
April 24th, 2010 14:43
Must say Air Force One surely was never 2nd in a Hennessy, he can’t physically organise his legs! Awful.
Well done Church lovers and backers, super run, excellent stuff
#194
April 24th, 2010 14:43
Just a note to take forward to next year everyone; 3 out of the first 4 had good claiming jockeys on board. These lads are getting better and better
#195
April 24th, 2010 14:46
Sorry folks, I bodged it on this one, but big shout to showlad and apologies to anyone who backed the ‘i’m just here to have a good time’ just amazing. funny old game. taking a holiday now and well up so a very happy year. thank you all. x
#196
April 24th, 2010 14:51
Showlad- Yes it is thanks…No real excuse for what I said though….Ya I was on Churchie today (also had Lacdoudal for the forecast…How close was that:(..) and was on Merigo last week…A very good week…I owe this forum alot of thanks and gratitude!
#197
April 24th, 2010 14:54
We all get there on here through all our combined tips and research and info.
Glad all back on an even keel Mike and the bets are that ‘lil icing on the cake
#198
April 24th, 2010 14:55
#199
April 24th, 2010 14:59
Hey Wacky.Well done on Paco Boy.
#200
April 24th, 2010 15:01
think we should rename the blog and just ignore the grand national for next season! lol
If theres any flat fans around – i might have a small interest in the derby but thats the jumps season over for me apart from a couple of sunny nights at Stratford. Season will probably begin with the melbourne cup with me
will post a list of early fancies for next seasons major races later on
#201
April 24th, 2010 15:05
Rascal; Just Amazing came 6th; considering only 8 horses finished he’s definately one to look at next year if PN keeps an eye on his handicap weight. By the way, will there be a deduction because of the non runner and if so does it affect bets that were placed before today?
#202
April 24th, 2010 15:06
I was going to have a bit on it after your tip, since you’ve got such a good strike rate.But I was to busy feeling good about winning on Church Island.I only remembered at 3.45. Oh well.You have done well today then.Many thanks anyway.
#203
April 24th, 2010 15:08
I enjoy any racing, just much, much prefer the jumps. Only have tiny wagers on flat. Hope to be chatting with some of you throughout the following months. Or is there somewhere else you all go?? : ))
#204
April 24th, 2010 15:09
I agree TC
#205
April 24th, 2010 15:11
Working on the 2011 National, even now. Nice day with forecast in first two races at Ripon, topped off with a bit on Churchy.
Sound’s like that ad with the bulldog, lol. Oh, yes.
#206
April 24th, 2010 15:23
Well I for one will keep popping on the blog.I must say it is a pleasure to read and reply to people on here.So thank you to everyone for your thoughts and discusion.Its been great and I hope to chat to you all over the coming months.I feel a real sense of solidarity with you all.
#207
April 24th, 2010 15:31
Jackie;not sure if we are we allowed to mention other forums [admin?]. I spent so many years having no friends or family interested in racing that I feel as if I’ve died and gone to heaven these days.
#208
April 24th, 2010 15:37
Ah, no problem, thanks for the answer, I know it’s hard to chat about racing with the ‘guys down the bookies’ Given up in fact! Glad I found this forum too. : )
#209
April 24th, 2010 15:47
I backed church island for the grand national at 80 to 1 and lost £60 due to it being pulled out. But kept the faith had £30 each way at 33-1 thanks to you guys but a special thankyou her goes to maureen who as been a big supporter of this horse for along time now and that stuck in my mind when convinced to make the bet. Cheers all a good spring betting outcome after all
#210
April 24th, 2010 15:48
TC post #200 and Corum post #206 ditto
What with the Wacky’s tip too, I think the best term could be’good day at the office’ for the team
Jackie this is the main blog for most I think, maybe some go onto other racing forums abd blogs etc and some I imagine some go onto the flat (not a big fav for me except Derby a lil).
I like TV specials markets too Eurovision, Big Brother, Strictly, Xfactor etc and other sports markets – mainly tennis.
As I said tho, hopefully admin will have a ‘touch base’ thread etc and then before we know it, it will be December again, lol, ha ha.
Crikey!!
#211
April 24th, 2010 16:03
I did well at Wimbledon last year! Never tried the others you mentioned, maybe larger football matches, but only as an interest bet as I’m watching.
#212
April 24th, 2010 16:06
I really loved the trainer of Church Island and his humility. He said it is expensive to come over from Ireland – but obviously it had all worked out.
I love these humble hard working trainers, having to budget where they can afford to go next and working (and hoping) really hard – for me it’s what true racing is all about.
#213
April 24th, 2010 16:07
thanks maureen, he did well to come home sixth but wanted to go his own way throughout the race and not one to have confidence in. think connections were hoping for a much smaller field but you take your chances. c’est la vis.
#214
April 24th, 2010 16:11
Very disappointed in Nostringsattached, thought his form etc was very good.
#215
April 24th, 2010 16:19
Im Hooked…a lucky 15 at Ludlow for me tomorrow.Here [admin] can we have a thread for the Ludlow meeting tomorrow…only joking
.
I’ll be popping in and out of here throughout the summer,although im not really a fan of Flat,i prefer curves,sorry i mean jumps…lol.
Just before i go,can anyone give me any form tips for the following numbers 1-49 in tonights lottery,i have a sneaking feeling number 37 is finally going to come good…lol.
Bye for Now
#216
April 24th, 2010 16:45
Just indulge me for just a second:
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees!!!!!!!
25/1!
Now you know why some of us were so keen to take 100/1 or better on CH for the GN just the wrong race and a bit later but still a BIG winner! GN 2011 kitty now almost full what with the Sots Nat win and this.
Great team effort so many were on CH.
Now all those doubters of trends and stats where are you???(so quiet now eh). Many in the team got the Irish Nat, Scots Nat and bet 365 and more and these were posted for all to see. You cant get them all right and this year it was the GN we could get but all the others easy!!.
I hear Showlad going on a round the world cruise right now after all his many wins and top prices – Showlad, I salute you!(and the many other top people on here) – now a nice “fun win bet” on the Eurovision to round off now the pressures off.
#217
April 24th, 2010 16:57
..and these races, no matter how big and important they are, are still handicaps with trainers plotting their races with half an eye on their handicap weight. The fun is trying to work out what they’re up to. Nice little 2 mile race today with a few Ebor horses in…..
#218
April 24th, 2010 17:06
May I just thank the site owner and everyone who contributed to the threads on THE GN, SGN and today’s big race.
Weighing up all the info on here, and picking 4, 4 and 3 got the winner and fifth, winner and winner. I only had a couple of quid or less on each winner, so nothing to brag about, I’m just delighted that three big puzzles were solved in succession thanks to the analysis here. The rush I got today when Church Island turned for home, and I knew he was guaranteed to stay, was absolutley fantastic.
Great discussions, and many people obviously put in a lot of effort. Sincere thanks again to all, I’m looking forward to reading more great posts, and maybe even contributing in the future.
#219
April 24th, 2010 17:21
Mark B
Have you tried the “Hot” and “Cold” numbers for the lottery its the “trend/stat” way to win the lottery!!! Personely I prefer Hot Picks for a lower prize but where I can use combinations of numbers. Thre are loads of bad and the odd good lottery sites out there – have a look.
#220
April 24th, 2010 17:23
Thanks Wacky for that “bonus” tip! It was a nice end to the day.
#221
April 24th, 2010 17:30
Forgot this one:
Can we do it?
YES WE DID!!!!!!
On to 2011 GN:
Can we do it?
You know the answer!!
#222
April 24th, 2010 18:45
Jackie; check out Scottish National thread #187.
#223
April 24th, 2010 18:47
Systems , I did the hot/cold number in the lottery early days got four numbers and a few three number wins on draw 19. Won nearly couple hundred quid.
Took note on how the numbers was in draw order.
#224
April 24th, 2010 18:49
well guys the jumps season comes to an end, and thats me done till the Autumn i guess, i do bet on the flat but not like i do on the jumps
Churchy has filled most of our pockets for the 2011 GN, so win, lose or draw, i will be playing with their money next year
Nice group of guys and gals this year, i hope it keeps this way for next year, sure we are not going to be able to pull it off every year but the fun we have along the way working out the puzzle that is the handicap, is well worth the time invested.
It would be nice if there was a place for us to keep in touch on this site, for flat chat and comming jumps season and stuff…..admin is this something you could sort for us?
Well the sun will be out tomorrow so go out and enjoy all those churchy pounds we won today!!!
#225
April 24th, 2010 20:06
Thanks Systemsman
) I will give it a look,i feel my luck is in at the moment.If it wasnt for Can’t Buy Time being withdrawn i wouldn’t of been on Churchy,but coming back here and reading the posts there was only ever going to be one replacement.Although i was a bit worried when he hit the front so soon and then Irish Raptor pulled alongside,i neednt of worried though.Of my other selections Fairoak Lad and Nostrings never got into the race but for a brief moment i thought Kilcrea Castle was also getting me a place as it looked to be travelling quite well in 3rd,but then just pulled up at the 19th,still a cracking race and cheers to all the churchy backers \_/
#226
April 24th, 2010 20:40
Thanks Maureen.
#227
April 24th, 2010 21:36
I’m hoping that Kilcrea Castle is ok; pulled up suddenly but the jockey didn’t seem to jump off straight away. Haven’t heard anything from anyone.
#228
April 24th, 2010 21:39
I know Maureen…i watched the replay and Kilcrea certainly looked very distressed.
#229
April 24th, 2010 23:42
Showlad, TC, Maureen et al,
Many many thanx to ALL. I initially had ‘Tother One, Lacdoudal and Kilcrea Castle at big prices then, because of this ‘TEAM’ got on ‘Churchy’ at 33s AND 20s! What with the ‘Irish’ Scottish and now this, I have had a very profitable journey…Thankyou
ps: Does anyone know what happend to ‘Kilcrea’ as he was ‘flying’ and then stopped most ubruptly?
#230
April 25th, 2010 00:08
I’m still trying to find out. I think they said he made a mistake at one fence and then pulled up a couple of fences later. The jockey was trying to pull him up for a while, and managed to stop before the fence. He seemed to be looking down but didn’t jump off immediately.
#231
April 25th, 2010 10:46
Major respect to all those that tipped church island and was wandering if SHOWLAD wanted to buy my CAFE of me!!!Made my 6-4 bet on Paco Boy look like small frys from my Chippie!!!Im getting some good info at the moment and will post it if i get time in the future.Have a good summer everyone.
#232
April 25th, 2010 12:45
Well done to all winners and especially TC – you have been very consistent in your support for Church Island
Hourigan has a nice young horse in Mr Cracker for chases next season
Amazing run from some of you guys on here that backed all four big priced winners – Bluesea Cracker, Always Waining, Merigo & Church Island
Top tipping – Showlad, TC etc etc
Personally I’ve done my proverbials this April!
Time to take a break & recharge the batteries for Epsom
Keep up the excellent work next jumps season!
#233
April 25th, 2010 12:48
admin is there any chance you can keep a thread going for general betting on like the flat and the world cup, i do quite well in football betting and any of you guys and girls on here , it would interesting to hear from you if admin allows
#234
April 25th, 2010 12:57
Admin: re Sling-shot #233 – just a ‘touch base thread’ would be good for us bloggers to say hi and bloggers can post up wateva in their posts in touching base until we kick off in the autumn again.
Pablo – been a great pleasure as usual – you’re a gent – thanks so much for your posts and great research insights. Keep in touch.
Mo – when is the summer Nat?
#235
April 25th, 2010 12:58
Admin
Agree with Sling Shot 01
Maybe we should put it to a vote for threads such as:
Guineas meeting
Derby meeting
Royal Ascot
World Cup
Summer jumps
Ebor meeting
Some of these guys are on a hot streak and there are lots of Facebook followers too?
#236
April 25th, 2010 13:01
Showlad – happy to do more research and then you and TC can tell me what to back on the basis of it!
#237
April 25th, 2010 13:07
Puzzled thanks for all your valuable input on here.
Admin re Puzzled #224 looks like a lot of favour for a ‘keep in touch’ thread hope you can post up.
#238
April 25th, 2010 13:08
Pablo lol
That’s exactly what I was saying yesterday – together all our areas of expertise and talent make us combine as a great WHOLE.
Go GN 2011
#239
April 25th, 2010 13:15
Re Pablo #235 – yes admin if a ‘one size fits all thread’ is easiest for you eg a ‘GN Bloggers touch base/hot tips’ thread would be great.
Unrealistic to expect the bloogers to got to a myriad of other links and I think it is good for the GN community on here for such a ‘fun’ thread to be in place until we get gpoing again.
This won’t diverge or compromise the GN blog – it could be a ‘fun keep in touch’ thread and also have little tips to view from time to time eg fun events such as Eurovision and sporting greats such as the World Cup and The Derby.
I think the fabulous team on here merit it
and it would keep the community spirit on here, that you’ve proudly commented on going until we kick off again, with, what – the Kerry National at end of September?
#240
April 25th, 2010 13:40
As Crisp pointed out after GN the archives on here can be very useful (and painful!)
Selection from 2009…
ALWAYS WAINING
Pablo
October 17th, 2009 11:14
I thought Always Waining was quite impressive until he fell. The fast ground suited AW. His trainer seems intent on sending him to the National. He’s very well-handicapped on his best form – so worth looking out for on good ground – but I very much doubt he’s classy enough to win the GN.
TC
October 17th, 2009 11:38
I agree, Always Waining would have won, his form over the longer distances is very poor though. might be a national contender though
…or you might back him to win the Topham TC!
MERIGO
TC
April 6th, 2009 19:46
I think the one horse that stands out to me is Merigo
Neil
April 6th, 2009 20:23
Merigo does indeed looks interesting
maureen
April 8th, 2009 10:16
Timmy Murphy has twice this season beaten a horse that I’ve backed when riding for his in laws so I’ll have to have a small bet on Merigo.
crisp 73
April 15th, 2009 15:11
Not finished yet but Sound Accord, Hello Bud, Merigo, Out The Black seem the pick at the moment.
Ok, Merigo a non-runner last year but waltzed in this year
CHURCH ISLAND
Silver Birch
April 19th, 2009 09:44
my own early fancies against the field
Church Island – ran a blinder in the irish national and seems to be at the top of his game at the moment and deserves plenty of respect
Pablo
April 20th, 2009 14:01
I hope that this isn’t Rambo all over again – but this horse is too good to be true!!!
CHURCH ISLAND is my main fancy – really like the look of this one – especially if ridden by 7lb claimer again
TC
April 20th, 2009 19:11
Is Gone to Lunch likely to go to Sandown because i think it will be interesting to see AP’s choice between Darkness and GTL, both hit the stats – have to say Church Island is my number one choice though at the moment, lacdoudal and erics charm should go well again
crisp 73
April 24th, 2009 13:15
Lacdoudal/Church Island, backed, are the trend horses for me.
Systemsman
April 25th, 2009 11:28
Based on the trends and posts so far I make it:
CHURCH ISLAND
Showlad
April 25th, 2009 14:01
CHURCH ISLAND Feel he could go either way after Irish National efforts, so can’t ignore today if he can maintain that form.
Brian
April 20th, 2009 12:46
Last night i Studied the stats that have already been listed and came up with a shortlist of five.
They were:
Church island
etc
And loads more KJ, Neil etc etc (apologies for any I missed)
CI 4th last year and wins this year…
Let’s keep up the observations on horses as the season unfolds and refer back to the archives in the Spring
#241
April 25th, 2010 15:09
On the subject of the World Cup.I think looking at group B odds for group winner
Argentina
1.51
Nigeria
6
Greece
9
South Korea
12.5
Argentina look a good bet at approx 8/1 to win the world cup. Back at 8/1 wait for them to get out their group and their odds will drop and then lay them.
#242
April 25th, 2010 15:32
What is your major bet for the World Cup sling-shot01?
#243
April 25th, 2010 17:59
at the moment i like the 80/1 top goal scorer peter crouch at william hill, each way top four. i havn’t looked at what his odds are at other bookies yet. but 80/1 is too big, i think im write in saying that every game he has started in he has scored in for england, with a bit of uncertainty with rooney injury wise at the moment he could end up starting in many games.but i will start studying over the next few weeks, i’m waiting for the footy season to end regarding injurys etc. i will be doing a lot of trixie bets especially in the first round of matches, i think argentina like you they are a big price, i know they scrape through but if they can get there act together with messi playing the way he is sergio aguero and teves just to mention a few but again i will wait and see injury wise, if torres is fit for spain they are a different team and him and villa link up but one without the other they arent quite the same.
#244
April 25th, 2010 18:48
Interesting mate.Peter is 80/1 with betfair to.
#245
April 25th, 2010 19:07
Im on Argentina at 10′s and Messi top goalscorer at 20′s.Oh and my lay on betfair is England at 6-1 as thats a false price on our recent record in world football.If any of you fancy Chelsea to win the league don’t back them at odds on in the outright market as they have to win at Liverpool and will be odds against to win there. good luck all.
#246
April 25th, 2010 19:24
Admin – Sorry to disturb you but Where is my post, Sent at 11.59pm?
Short version;
A BIG THANK TO EVERYONE ON HERE.
#247
April 25th, 2010 19:25
Also Admin if the post time is an hour or so behind?
#248
April 25th, 2010 19:38
cheers pablo – absolute loved Church Island yesterday and had such a good couple of months. I do have to wonder how much chance he would have in a grand national. might be another performance in him yet as well
Might well have a small go at the flat, the trends and analysis on here is superb and i think between us, we might be able to pull some of the classics off. So will investigate…
#249
April 25th, 2010 19:45
Admin-thanks for a great site.Just thought I should mention that you have Silver by Nature down as the Welsh National winner.
#250
April 25th, 2010 19:45
xtension looks good for the 2000 guineas ew 16/1 at the moment clive cox reported him to be in cracking form .any one with any fancys
#251
April 25th, 2010 19:48
Wacky,I can only agree with you on those bets.I also think that England is a sure lay.I am just waiting for them to get out of their group and then I might lay them.Regards Corum.
#252
April 25th, 2010 21:25
I too would like a new thread Admin if at all possible. It’s been fun throughout the autumn and winter, and it would be nice to continue throughout the year for the classics.
#253
April 25th, 2010 22:10
pablo any fancys on the guineas meetings
#254
April 26th, 2010 09:40
thanks for the great tips guys!
I think the grand national has fundamentally changed as a race, but your stats are great for the rest..
cheers
J
#255
April 26th, 2010 11:03
Agree Jackie – perhaps a new thread for the 1,000.00 and 2,000.00 guineas?
#256
April 26th, 2010 11:25
Made a start on the 2000:-
Previous winners
08 – Henrythenavigator, Murtagh/O’Brien, 11/1
07 – Cockney Rebel, Peslier/Huffer, 25/1
06 – George Washington (RIP), Fallon/O’Brien, 6/4 fav
05 – Footstespinthesand, Fallon/O’Brien, 13/2
04 – Haafhd, R.Hills/B.Hills, 10/3
03 – Refuse to Bend, Smullen/Weld, 9/2
02 – Rock of Gibraltar, Muragh/O’Brien, 9/1
01 – Golan, Fallon/Stoute, 11/1
00 – King’s Best, Fallon/Stoute, 13/2
99 – Island sands, Dettori/bin Suroor, 10/1
Trends
8/10 making seasonal debut
10/10 won over 7f+
10/10 by a stallion with stamina index of 8.0f+
10/10 finished in top three last time out (6/10 1st)
#257
April 26th, 2010 12:13
To add to J Rambo above
09 – Sea The Stars, Kinane/Oxx, 8/1
Best RPR 112 – won Group 2 Beresford Stakes 8f (£59k) last run as 2yo, 3 runs (2 wins, longest win 8f), unraced at 3 beforehand
08 – Henrythenavigator, Murtagh/O’Brien, 11/1
Best RPR 115 – 3rd Group 2 Futurity Stakes 7f (£52k) last run as 2yo, 4 runs (2 wins, longest win 7f), unraced at 3 beforehand
07 – Cockney Rebel, Peslier/Huffer, 25/1
Best RPR 111 – 3rd Group 2 Champagne Stakes 7f (£56k) last run as 2yo, 3 runs (1 win, longest win 6f), unraced at 3 beforehand
06 – George Washington (RIP), Fallon/O’Brien, 6/4 fav
Best RPR 121 – won Group 1 Phoenix Stakes 6f (£125k) penultimate run as 2yo, 5 runs (4 wins, longest win 7f), unraced at 3 beforehand
05 – Footstepsinthesand, Fallon/O’Brien, 13/2
Best RPR 112 – won Group 3 Kilavullan Stakes 7f (£32k) last run as 2yo, 2 runs (2 wins, longest win 7f), unraced at 3 beforehand
04 – Haafhd, R.Hills/B.Hills, 10/3
Best RPR 121 – won Group 3 Craven Stakes 8f (£29k) as 3yo, 5 runs (3 wins, longest win 8f) – won only race at 3
03 – Refuse to Bend, Smullen/Weld, 9/2
Best RPR 113 – won Group 1 National Stakes 7f (£118k) last run as 2yo, 3 runs (3 wins, longest win 8f) – won only race at 3
02 – Rock of Gibraltar, Muragh/O’Brien, 9/1
Best RPR 121 – won Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes 7f (£116k) last run as 2yo, 7 runs (5 wins, longest win 7f), unraced at 3 beforehand
01 – Golan, Fallon/Stoute, 11/1
Best RPR 94 – won Chepstow Maiden 7f (£3k) last run as 2yo, 1 run (1 win, longest win 7f), unraced at 3 beforehand
00 – King’s Best, Fallon/Stoute, 13/2
Best RPR 117 – won Group 2 Acomb Stakes 7f (£20k) penultimate run as 2yo, 4 runs (2 wins, longest win 7f), 2nd in only race at 3
99 – Island Sands, Dettori/bin Suroor, 10/1
Best RPR 107 – won Conditions Stakes 6f (£4k) last run as 2yo, 2 runs (2 wins, longest win 6f), unraced at 3 beforehand
Looks tricky…
#258
April 26th, 2010 12:38
10/10 born before 7 April. I guess most will have been born before that date, but I have a feeling that a month or so means a lot of physical development in young horses. 10/10 Last run August or later. 8/10 won first race as a 2 year old. Had 3 plus runs. [not sure where I got these figures from so don't take them as gospel].
#259
April 26th, 2010 12:41
Shortlist at the moment – St Nicholas Abbey (11.6f), Elusive Pimpernel (although sire index 7.8f – most recent winners had a site index of 8.0f plus) Fencing Master (9.1f) and Al Zir (9.7f).
#260
April 26th, 2010 13:55
i like the look of puff in the 1000 guinas had him in a double with merigo the other week
#261
April 26th, 2010 19:45
2,000.00 guineas a very hard race which the Fav does not often win but ALWAYS looks unbeatable at this stage
Would suggest just a small bet on this. Is St Nicholas Abbey beatable (and for the Derby) – is he another Sea The Stars?
Now the gound will play a part (just like the GN!!)
“GOING: GOOD (Good to firm in places; will water as necessary.”
And lost of sun due.
So we need a speed horse (very high TS who loves Good/Firm and if St Nicholas Abbey takes to this ground he will be hard to peg back and CAN win but it may also be his one week point???). There is no value in St Nick at 6/4 or so. These are only inital thoughts and will confirm on Friday night(and I need to do more work) but would provisionaly suggest:
Awzaan 2points to win at 8/1 Ladbrookes/Coral (109/10 at betfair)
St Nicholas Abbey 1point to win (cover bet) at 13/8 Tote (79/50 betfair).
Both have speed
Both are unbeaten
Awzaan loves Gd/Firm
Both won C1/G1
Both in the best price range 6/4 to 11/1 = 10/11
AND
8/10 making seasonal debut. Both
10/10 won over 7f+ BOTH
10/10 by a stallion with stamina index of 8.0f+ ST Nick (dont know figure for
Awzaan)
10/10 finished in top three last time out (6/10 1st) Both and 1st Both
On price alone we can look at these four (BUT prices will change before the off so you need to keep monitoring)- consider anything at 11/1 or lower (and watch where the money has gone in the last 2minutes befor the off). Best price given.
St Nicholas Abbey 13/8
Elusive Pimpernel 5/1
Awzaan 8/1
Canford Cliffs 8/1
Others 14/1 bar
Any other views out there?
#262
April 26th, 2010 20:04
backed well on elusive pimpernel at 11/2 and got a cracking bet if he runs on dick turpin e/w at 66′s.there is alot of negative views on st.nich abb. style of running and the unsuitability to the expected going.walter swinburn has very strong views for concern and even jockey kieran fallen has doubts.
#263
April 26th, 2010 21:16
Yes I now agree Mandie Elusive Pimpernel should also be on the list as it ran very well both times on Gd/Firm and may be able to get the better of St Nick on that sort of surface – he certainly wont be far away.
Three against the field – note change
So we have
Awzaan 2points to win at 8/1 Ladbrookes/Coral (109/10 at betfair).
Elusive Pimpernel 3points at 5/1 at Ladbrookes
St Nicholas Abbey 4points (now changed) to win (cover bet) at 13/8 Tote (79/50 betfair).
7 points staked
Returns
if Awzaan wins +9points
if Elusive Pimpernel wins +9points
if St Nicholas Abbey wins +1.5points
#264
April 26th, 2010 21:57
will, admit to being quite limited in knowledge of the flat due to the fact i’m never around to take too much interest during summer weekends – but we’ll have a go.
Firstly why isnt Buzzword entered for the guineas?
Secondly, the stats i have come up with suggest that on pedigree St Nicholas Abbey does not look great with far too much stamina (too much made of his RP win on rain-softened ground where his stamina came into play?)
Used the same system as i’ve been using for the NH and the best trends are probably Dosage/pedigree related
The two that head the system
Fencing Master clear followed by Xtension and Elusive Pimpernel. Have to say i really do like the former for the race and think i’ll have a small dabble!! No substitute for course experience
#265
April 26th, 2010 23:09
tc i think buzzword is .i cant see no n/r down on atr
#266
April 26th, 2010 23:17
i read in the paper the other day that dunlop said elusive pimpernel wil like the ground better and get closer to st nicholas abbey but obrian stated that the faster ground wont be no problem for his mount, st nicholas . as for canford i think his more of a sprinter myself. xtention looks a value each way bet for me especially as clive cox is saying good things about him at the moment. i think he fits a few of your stats as well….any thoughts ..
#267
April 27th, 2010 06:15
^oops, must have meant beethoven
i’ll put the stats i’ve used up later, but they are quite pedigree related
#268
April 27th, 2010 12:41
Systems, Awzaan’s sire has an index of 10.2f – similar to St Nicholas in that he may probe to be better over further?
#269
April 27th, 2010 12:43
Sorrym shoudl say “prove”
#270
April 27th, 2010 13:40
Who are everyone’s top 3 so far?
1. Awzaan
2. Elusive Pimpernel
3. Fencing Master
#271
April 27th, 2010 14:08
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2010/2010_2000_guineas_preview.htm
for those that like dosage-related stuff
…and non- dosage-related conclusions
#272
April 27th, 2010 15:02
Msybe the fav will win easily but not for me @ 13/8 so top 3:
1. Awzaan
2. Xtension
3. Elusive Pimpernel
#273
April 27th, 2010 17:55
right here goes…
finding it difficult to find many trends
firstly pedigree;
Dosage Points 16+ 19/20
DI 1.05+ 17/20
CD 0.25+ 17/20
Sire index 8.7-11.7 18/20
Mare index of 8.3 – 11.9 15/19
any queries over dosage figures, then the best place for them is Ben Aitken’s blog, if he’s doing a piece on the race
Recorded TS of 95+ 16/20
Recorded RPR of 103+ 18/19
BST RPR In a graded race 15/20
Best RPR recorded at the Curragh or Newmarket 13/20
Career runs 3-7 16/20
Won at 7f+ 18/20
Placed at Newmarket 12/20
taken a percentage for each trend and added the figures together for each runner
1. Fencing Master
=3. Elusive Pimpernel
=3. Xtension
#274
April 27th, 2010 18:30
Interesting approach TC – what are the precentages for your top 3?
i.e. how do they compare with the odds offered by bookies?
#275
April 27th, 2010 18:45
1.st nicholas abbey
2.elusive pimpernel
3.xtension
#276
April 27th, 2010 19:37
pablo
Think it was Dan Edwards that originally came up with the system, but the idea of it was not to rule a horse out just on one trend. applied it to both the scottish national and the bet 365 last weekend successfully, however this is very much a trial run for the flat
Firstly pedigree looks very key for the flat, and the only flat race i take an interest in is the melbourne cup which always leaves 3-4 horses each year for the race based upon a couple of trends and Dosage figures
the percentages
Dosage Points 16+ 19/20 (19 divide 20 is 0.95)
used for every trend and added together giving a total number for each runner
DI 1.05+ 17/20 (0.85)
CD 0.25+ 17/20 (0.85)
Sire index 8.7-11.7 18/20 (0.90)
Mare index of 8.3 – 11.9 15/19 (0.79)
to start off with the pedigree figures suggest St Nicholas Abbey doesnt look great
same percentages apply
Recorded TS of 95+ 16/20
Recorded RPR of 103+ 18/19
BST RPR In a graded race 15/20
Best RPR recorded at the Curragh or Newmarket 13/20
Career runs 3-7 16/20
Won at 7f+ 18/20
Placed at Newmarket 12/20
total at the end, leave a top 3 of;
1. Fencing Master 8.89
=3. Elusive Pimpernel 8.79
=3. Xtension 8.79
St Nicholas Abbey 7.09!! main reason is that he is too stoutly breAd
Might be completely out however…but we’ve had a go
#277
April 27th, 2010 19:37
1 elusive pimp
2 canford cliffs
3 dick turpin
#278
April 27th, 2010 19:58
TC – thanks – I use (used to use?) a similar points system for GN but not based on percentages – instead I used a sliding scale with a bit of leeway either side
Challenge for me now is to award points for things that make sense and keep it simple – I went into far too much detail for GN and lost the plot!
#279
April 27th, 2010 20:10
Pablo – really like the system, perhaps a little leeway could be used for certain things, but in the past i have just ignored a horse just because he misses out on one trend. A lot of the horses pedigree is used, along with ratings and course experience and helps identify which horses are aimed for the race at an early stage
Its very simple and have to say there are way too many negatives on st. nicholas abbey even if a bit of leeway is used. Any views on his stablemate, Fencing Master. From what i’ve read/heard is that he ran very ‘green’ at Newmarket the end of last year, yet still ran very close
#280
April 27th, 2010 21:01
good stuff tc what do you think on al zir, looks like it can get his fast ground, he has been up against the favourite on softer ground a few lengths back mind, i think he could possibly get in the mix and he has got dettori on board it is quite a hard nut to crack though, especially as you know what its like you dont always get a two year old transcend into a good three year old , especially as quite a few of these will be running first time out.
#281
April 27th, 2010 21:07
Like Fencing Master – just not sure whether this is his big target
He was green and on that basis must have a good chance of improving on that bare form, but is still too inexperienced for me – prefer a Group winner ideally
Fencing Master is definitely one to follow but I prefer Awzaan for the Guineas because he’s unbeaten and although he has only raced at sprint trips he settles and travels well and has a great turn of foot. Plus his pedigree (but not perhaps dosage) suggests that a mile may bring about further improvement.
Also Xtension has been aimed at this race specifically and I’d kick myself for not backing a Clive Cox-trained Classic winner so he’ll be the saver I think
But the fav could bolt up – who knows?
#282
April 27th, 2010 21:20
yer pablo i do like the look of xtension, ive been keeping a close eye on any news on him, but im hearing good things from clive cox’s stable, i might double him up with puff in the 1000 guineas
#283
April 27th, 2010 22:13
cheers pablo – have to admit there isnt a lot to go on in terms of trends
i’ve got that 7/20 hadnt won a graded race. In terms of Fencing Master’s target – the fact that he raced in the Dewhurst gives me the indication that surely this is the target
He posted an RPR higher than any other horse with 2 runs or less and must be open to improvement.
Sling-shot – I’m a complete flat novice, but to me it seems a risk in backing any runner as you have no idea what performance they are likely to put in. Wont be able to watch the race, so it’s very much a small fun bet with a bit of research
#284
April 28th, 2010 09:57
Hi Gang.
Take it this is the ‘touch base and tipping’ thread for now til Admin throws one up lol.
Not a big flat fan. So much less excitement, exhiliration and drama than the jumps.
For Sat’s big race though the value seems to be with Fencing Master and Xtension and will limit myself to ew on these two.
Hope you all well
#285
April 28th, 2010 13:49
Not a bad shout on Xtension and Puff Sling-Shot. Fencing Master and Puff is another to consider.
If both place on an EW Double, do you still get quarter odds?
#286
April 28th, 2010 17:19
Hi All
)
More fantastic research thanks TC,Slingshot,Pablo,Systems and all.I dont normally bet on the flat,BUT owning to the last couple of weeks worth of winnings im going to have a quick e/w on either xtension or fencing master and back against St Nicholas Abbey on Betfair as a covering bet.
#287
April 28th, 2010 17:29
Have plumped for Xtension at 16′s in the 2000
and
Puff at 20′s in the 1000
and also layed St Nicks Abbey.
Also noted Fencing Master has been cut from 16′s to 10′s with Bet 365 in the last 24 hours.
Good Luck All
#288
April 28th, 2010 20:39
Have had an ew on the French horse, Makfi [no idea what he's like], Pat Edderys horse [because the trainer says he's very calm and bomb proof, and I figured some of them might get a bit buzzed up beforehand] and Al Zir because he’s supposed to be working quite well. No expectations of winning anything.
#289
April 28th, 2010 21:19
brokie if you place a each way double you get, quater the odds if both place, i had puff the other day when he won at seven furlongs, he looked like he should get the extra furlong , im looking at the value in the each way money more so, but with three year olds you never know, it depends on how good they come through the winter,i will be having a small bet on both and an each way double. and might put a bit more on, on the day once i see him go round the parade ring. best pointer for me is a nice shiny coat, the shinier the better.
#290
April 29th, 2010 11:21
Xtension drifting to 20′s, Fencing Master shortening to 9′s…
#291
April 29th, 2010 12:55
#257
Maureen with ref to your post on the age of the horse,the three oldest horses are Fairtrade 2 Feb,Xtension 2 Feb and Inler 7 Feb,followed by Canford Cliffs and Awzaan on 8 Feb.
#292
April 29th, 2010 13:02
That is if you ignore any horse past Fairtrade in the odds.
#293
April 29th, 2010 13:57
Rain forecast so I’m holding bets until we know what ground will be like – wouldn’t want too much rain for Awzaan
If it chucks it down then Pipette will be a bet for me in the 1,000 otherwise Devoted To You is a big price for an AOB-trained runner with a run under her belt
#294
April 29th, 2010 16:31
Hey Showlad…What are your bets for the Eurovision??I am almost certain now that il go big on Azerbaijzn e/w 3/1 first 3 places with Boyles and savers on Israel and Armenia/Denmark with PP 4places…What are your thoughts??
#Thanks
#295
April 29th, 2010 19:00
Sorry for the diversion folks.
Mike check out:
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=29193&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=60
Where you will find comments from me and Showlad on Eurovision. For what its worth I think you have the correct bet other than some sort of bet/saver on Germany. Personely I would rather bet to win rather tha EW unless you can get big odds.
It will all become a lot clearer at the rehersal stage but by then the 3/1 will be all gone. and both Azerbaijzn and Germany could be 2/1 or less, but Israel is a real danger to both (but my opinion is that it wont win). There are still some real EW gems hidden out there if you look hard but I’am not sure we would all agree on which are the best long shots.
For all those interested I will post my views on hear at the semi final stage (around 23rd May) for all to see like last year. Who am I backing?
#296
April 29th, 2010 19:41
Hi I see that you’re trying to crack the classics,
Caution on betting on the leading fancies is adviced.
I think Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin, Makfi and St Nicholas Abbey because they all have the word quickened in the comments, a very useful ability in top class field.
However St Nicholas Abbey looks one that will improve over middle distance, his physique, pedigee and records suggest this.
So my three would be :
Dick Turpin,
Canford Cliffs,
Makfi
#297
April 29th, 2010 19:57
Can anyone tell me anything about Makfi? No info on ATR. I do know he’s won of soft, but the trainer thinks he’s be as good on firmer ground. I always used to follow the French horses when they came over here [and then when they went home] because they tended to be ignored in the betting here. I followed Bago one year up until his Arc win, when everyone assumed the British horse would win.
#298
April 29th, 2010 20:07
19 declared for the 2000 guineas , theres some interesting draws, elusive pimpernal drawn in one, canford cliffs drawn in four, i can see elusive running a big race running on the shoulder of cc, but i still think cc is more a sprinter, i can see elusive pimpernal taking over on the seven furlong pole, especially as he is a course and distance winner and drawn in the same stall as sea the stars
#299
April 29th, 2010 20:11
Maureen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o41UKUXz4e4
Makfi = Noseband and orange cap, held up initially
#300
April 29th, 2010 20:22
hi maureen i typed in makfi horse on google and it came up with quite a few different links that might be worth a read
#301
April 29th, 2010 20:31
Downside is he’s only had 2 runs. Don’t know much about Dubawi either as a sire. Still 40/1 is a good price for a ‘lucky dip’ sort of bet! Not sure if I’ve mentioned this but we spoke to someone from Richard Hannons yard a few weeks ago and they voiced concerns about CC ‘getting the trip’ in his last race [7f?]. As he’s down for a 6f race later in the season I can’t see him winning on Saturday. As for the favourite, I can’t see a horse doing the Guineas/Derby double two years running. Having said that I don’t really follow flat racing and am only having a bet out of interest; really haven’t got a clue what I’m talking about!
#302
April 29th, 2010 20:37
Oh; Richard Hughes now saying CC will stay and he’s improved for last run. Still; money seems to be going on Makfi from somewhere, and it’s not my 25 pence ew thats caused it….
#303
April 29th, 2010 20:39
I also think Duty Sentry for the 1000 guineas.
#304
April 29th, 2010 20:44
cant see Duty Sentry winning, lol
very much a fuu bet for me in the guineas and will likely be Fencing Master and xtension
anyone got stats on the best draw?
#305
April 29th, 2010 21:06
Dubawi very much a soft ground horse; at least it’s raining now. Large field of 19 runners. Could there be an advantage to horses that have had more runs? My racecourses book says ‘The Rowley Mile course, on which the only draw advantage involves low drawn horses in races from 5 to 8f when the ground is soft’.
#306
April 29th, 2010 21:36
The guineases are run on the straight mile and I don’t think the is any advantage.
One interesting fact about the 2000 guineas is that its open to colts & fillies, were fillies get a sex allowance. The are no fillies in this years line up,but if one were to line up then the connection must think it very special. Were the 1000 guineas is fillies only.
#307
April 29th, 2010 21:44
Looks tougher every time I look at the 2,000 Guineas – especially with the weather
And the 1,000 too
Maybe a no bet double and save the cash!
#308
April 29th, 2010 23:38
The no chance of a colt triple crown, (2000 guineas, Derby & St Leger ) because the St Leger hurts stud value too much. The last one to do this was Nijinkski in 1970. However a fillies triple crown (1000 guineas, oaks & St Leger) is entirely feasible, the last one was Oh So Sharp in 1985.
Does anyone think that any of this years field will go on to the triple crown.
#309
April 30th, 2010 09:00
Hi everyone,
After taking everyones comments on board we have decided to open up a few flat based threads so that all our regulars can continue with the analysis and chat through the summer. I realise this goes against what was stated last year where we were worried about losing the Grand National focus but as we feel we’ve gained such a loyal band of contributors it seems only right to allow some flat racing threads – I realise there isn’t much time before the guineas meeting starts but I’ll get one opened up later this morning so perhaps you could move anything related to that meeting over to there.
Thanks