Bet365 Gold Cup 2009
The traditional race to bring down the curtain on the big events of the current National Hunt season takes place at Sandown on Saturday 25th April. This race has had many incarnations over the years and is now in the hands of Bet365.
To those of a certain age it will probably always be “The Whitbread” as the race was run under that banner from its inception in 1957 until 2001, the longest running sponsorship in the sport.
There have been some top class winners of the Sandown race over the years including Arkle, Mill House, The Dikler and Desert Orchid.
This race also provided one of the best finishes ever seen in a National Hunt race when in 1984 Special Cargo was victorious in a heart-pumping, two short head victory from two-time winner Diamond Edge and Lettoch.
The 2009 version promises to be another thriller with a host of good horses entered at this stage including Grand National fourth State Of Play, Irish Grand National runner-up Church Island and Topham Chase runner-up Oodachee.
Current favourite is the Paul Nicholls’ trained Hoo Loo Baloo who is a best priced 7/1 with Stan James.
Check back later in the week when we will be looking at some more of the prices on offer but start giving us your idea of the winner of this wonderful old race.
This post has 327 comments
#1
April 19th, 2009 09:44
April has to be one of my favourite months , as theres a hint of summer in the air , the cherry trees are in bloom and the best long distance chases of the season are on the tv every sat ..
yet another race i love and weve seen some great horses take this prize over the years …
have to say though looking at the entries, next sats race looks far from a vintage renewal …
i reckon its always good to back a horse thats either run well in the irish or scottish nationals or has ran at the cheltenham festival . for all there have been some big price winners always seems a classy beast who collects this
my own early fancies against the field
Church Island – ran a blinder in the irish national and seems to be at the top of his game at the moment and deserves plenty of respect
Pretty Star – improving novice who just got touched off by Character Building at Cheltenham and could get in with a nice racing weight..
Gone to Lunch – ran a blinder yesterday so chance is obvious . will he turn up though?
Erics charm – been running some good races this season and loves sandown . been 2nd in this race previously and warrants respect
Lacdoudal – previous winner and this race has a history of providing dual winners
Parsons legacy – fell at bechers in the national but has the class to go well
Very early days and god only knows if the ones above will run but they all seem classy horses whove been running at the big mtgs this season and are guaranteed to stay and wont mind quick ground
Bring it on
#2
April 19th, 2009 10:00
Sorry , two others i forgot to mention
Hoo la Balloo – obvious chance – seems to be 10lbs lower than last year
Emma Jane – fell early in the Irish Nat but had previously ran well in the Thyestes
Thats eight ive mentioned now !, need to try and whittle down a little … hopefully tomorrows 5 day decs will tell us more..
#3
April 19th, 2009 11:31
Said in scot nat thread I add something when I got something. My research is still earlier but in the past 20 years you got 12 between 10 stone and 10 stone 6. (4 past decade) ,5 at 10 stone 7 to 10 stone 13 (4 past decade) and 3 at 11 stone plus (2 past decade). Age two 11 year olds, three 10 year olds, five 9 & 8 year olds each, four 7 year old and a six year old.
#4
April 19th, 2009 12:14
Thought i’d add to what crisp had wrote on the scot thread
Sandown bet365 gold cup
Nine out of the last eleven winners carried 10-10 or less
Seven out of the last eleven winners finished in the top 3 last time out
Nine out of the last eleven winners were trained in the UK
Top 3 in chase this season
24f+ win 17/19 other 2 previously raced at Sandown
16/19 were 10’13 and under 19/19 <11’5
39% place rate 19/19
7+ chases 19/19 11+ 16/19
OR 129+
<60 days since last run 19/19 <29 15/19
3-11 season runs
Sandown Gold Cup.
16/19 recorded their best ever RPR that season. The three that didn’t had all recorded their best in previous seasons… at Sandown!
18/19, 11/11 recorded an RPR of 137 or more.
17/19 had a chase strike rate of 40% or more- the two that didn’t had placed at 29f or more and carried 10st on the day.
14/19 10-10 or less to victory.
Four of the five that carried 10-13 or more had;
RPR 163 plus/ TS 156 plus.
OR 152 TO 165
(Puntal odd one out, RPR 149, TS 126 carried 11-4/OR 142,and curiously is only winner not to win/place at 24f)
11/11 top 3 in C1 chase.
#5
April 19th, 2009 12:51
Cheers TC.
Further observation; In last 21 runnings only Topsham Bay, his first win in 92, has carried more than 10st to victory without a 149 RPR, / nothing has carried more than 10st 1lb without a RPR 149.
#6
April 19th, 2009 13:19
Subject to withdrawals, RPRs from recent races and the ground my list is down to these:
Arbor Supreme
Church Island
Darkness
Emma Jane
Go For One
Gone To Lunch
Halcon Generlardais
Lacdoudal
Out The Black
Parsons Legacy
Roll Along
1) Ran in a race at the Cheltenham Festival or at one of the 3 big Spring Grand National meetings
2) Has been placed in a chase at over 25f or more (exceptions being the Martin Pipe trained winners – always a trends-buster!)
3) RPR-OR > 5lb or more
4) RPR best this season (exception being Ad Hoc, a previous winner)
5) Seasonal best performance top 3 in class 1 or 2 chase
6) Run within 50 days (run 7 days ago is ok)
7) Win strike rate >=15%
Have had a small wager on Go For One at 150 on Betfair (Venetia Williams one coming off the back of two poor runs with better form earlier in the season – sound familiar?)
#7
April 19th, 2009 13:20
Not sure where smiley came from but there we go – are you sure about RPR Crisp?
#8
April 19th, 2009 13:26
From the RP website the following had top chase RPR BEFORE their win below 149:
1999 Eulogy 137
2002 Bound Back 139
2005 Jack High 140
2007 Hot Weld 144
#9
April 19th, 2009 13:28
Bounce Back carried 10′9 I meant to add and had chase RPR of 141 (hurdles was better – but as in case of Chief Dan George hurdles form not always reliable – like flat form for hurdlers)
#10
April 19th, 2009 13:36
When will the weights be announced? I was watching Roll Along beating Air Force One just now, and seeing him running right handed at Ascot and going away from the field was pretty impressive. Out the Black was way out the back and RA was giving him a lot of weight. Backed him for the Gold Cup [and the National, unfortunately]; he wasn’t stopping at the end of the GC. Runs well fresh.
#11
April 19th, 2009 13:47
Pablo, good spot Bounce Back. It was over hurdles, though very high and he hadn’t ran many chases. Eulogy,(139 in chase at sandown feb 98) Jack High and Hot Weld all carried 10st. So only one winner carried more than 10st 1lb without 149 RPR.
#12
April 19th, 2009 13:54
Difficult with Martin Pipe horses – they always seemed to break the trends – both Bounce Back and Puntal had never placed in a chase at over 21f – all others over 25+ in past 10 years
New Little Bric is similar profile and might go close if he stays
#13
April 19th, 2009 14:10
List Of Winners,age,weight and official ratings;
OR 141
2008 Monkerhostin 11 10-13 OR 153
2007 Hot Weld 8 10-00(oh 11) OR 135
2006 Lacdoudal 7 11-05 OR 152
2005 Jack High 10 10-00(oh 5) OR 129
2004 Puntal 8 11-04 OR 142
2003 Ad Hoc 9 10-10 OR 145
2002 Bounce Back 6 10-09 OR 133
2001 Ad Hoc 7 10-04 OR 134
2000 Beau 7 10-09 OR 140
1999 Eulogy 9 10-00 (oh 5) OR 131
1998 Call It A Day 8 10-10 OR 141
1997 Harwell Lad 8 10-00(oh
1996 Life Of A Lord 10 11-10 OR 165
1995 Cache Fleur 9 10-01 (over weight 1 oh 4)OR 141
1994 Usher Island 8 10-00 (oh 10) OR 143
1993 Topsham Bay 10 10-01(over weight 1 oh 0)OR 150(Awarded race)
1993(FPP)Givus A Buck 10 10-0 (oh 14) OR 149
1992 Topsham Bay 9 10-01 (over weight 1 oh 4)OR 143
1991 Docklands Express 9 10-03 OR 146 (Awarded race)
1991(FPP) Cahervillahow 7 11-02 OR 159
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-05 OR 145
1989 Brown Windsor 7 10-00 (oh 0)OR 70
Brown Windsor year seems to be a poor quality nothing above OR 91 although Gold Cup Winner The Thinker lined up.
FPP Stands for First Past Post
The one six year old was trained by Martin Pipe an exceptional trainer and ridden by Tony McCoy.
#14
April 19th, 2009 14:15
Harwell Lad oh 8 (eight) sorry about smiley but still it brighten it up.
#15
April 19th, 2009 14:20
David Pipe is not his father Pablo (no disrespect).The Martin Pipe era could be over Nicholls now seem to be top dog.This might point to Kauto Star.Will know more later in week.
#16
April 19th, 2009 14:37
I know David Pipe is not his Father but he hasn’t done badly with Comply Or Die and Madison Du Berlais recently – still capable of producing decent horses on the day and handicap plots
And of course Martin is still passing on advice
#17
April 19th, 2009 14:50
I take your point.
#18
April 19th, 2009 14:58
If you look at my list above though he was the only trainer of a six year old winner in the past twenty years.
You have to go back to 1958 for another six year old when Taxidermist probably stuffed his opponents(sorry about the pun could resist it) and that was trained by the late great Fulke Walwyn.So I think that anythng younger than 7 or older than 11 are up against things here.
#19
April 19th, 2009 15:04
This means Eurotrek,Zabenz,Pomme Tiepy,Tana River,Zacharova,Mont Misere are out from a stats point of view.
#20
April 19th, 2009 15:25
Ps if you click my name where i give you the list i think you’re go to the site I used for info
#21
April 19th, 2009 16:33
Whats the record of horses that were placed in a National that year, eg State of Play?
#22
April 19th, 2009 17:50
As posted on IN thred and repeated here (didnt notice that it had already been set up – well done Ammin and for GN 2010 thred).
crisp 73 great facts again on the Sandown Gold Cup hopefully a small bet will pay off this time – I am going to do some study myself on this one, given time, rather than just look at others posts.
Silver Birch use your winnings and take the wife and family on holiday! Now if only I can get one of those on investmesnts next Saturday – come on people help me out and I will see what i can do also. Anymore trends for Sandown Gold Cup anyone?
Pablo, Neil, TC etc thanks for your input above this post.
It will help if people can post their top 3 against the field from now to Friday as by Saturday the value will be all gone (but dont get me wrong better Saturday morning than Saturday night!!)
Anyone know the expected going?
#23
April 19th, 2009 19:21
I think the key for me in this race is who Richie Johnson decides to ride, all 3 of Hobbs’ fit the stats nicely and in with a good chance
#24
April 20th, 2009 11:00
20/21 winners had a top 2 chase place that season, Monkerhostin didn’t- had a top 3.
(negative for me for fancies According To John, also a low place strike rate for a horse who’s only ran 8 chases /Hoo La Baloo)
20/21 had won 1 of their previous 10 chases, Monkerhostin didn’t so either an anomaly or a slight change in trends.
At the moment looking at Roll Along, Gone To Lunch, Parsons Legacy, Lacdoudal.
#25
April 20th, 2009 11:06
Looking into further detail at the recent 10 winners:
FORM FIGURES BEST SEASONAL RATING BEFORE SANDOWN RUN,RUNS SINCE THIS AND NUMBER OF DAYS REST BETWEEN SANDOWN AND LAST RUN.
33P MONKERHOSTIN (RPR 162 CHEL 26F GD RUNS SINCE 1)(46 DAYS )
PPP61 HOT WELD (RPR 144 AYR 33F GD RUNS SINCE 0)(7 DAYS)
16134722 LACDOUDAL (RPR 164 AINT 25F GD RUNS SINCE 0)(22 DAYS)
38148562 JACK HIGH (RPR 140 NAVA 24F HY RUNS SINCE 5)(26 DAYS)
1211415UU PUNTAL (RPR 149 ASCO 16F SFT RUNS SINCE 3)(24 DAYS)
51233U AD HOC (RPR 152 CHEL 25F GD RUNS SINCE 1)(21 DAYS)
232143356 BOUNCE BACK (RPR 153 24F GD RUNS SINCE 1)(21 DAYS)
FFP52 AD HOC (RPR 152 33F AYR GF RUNS SINCE 0)(7 DAYS)
2412112 BEAU (RPR 155 25F CHEL GD RUNS SINCE 0)(46 DAYS)
20 EULOGY (RPR 137 SAND 25 GD RUNS SINCE 1)(39 DAYS)
Looking at this table I conclude:
THAT 50% CAME INTO THE RACE WITH A PLACE
80% HAD THE SEASONAL BEST RPR WITH UPTO 1 RUN SINCE SO ITS NEAR FORM
90% PUT THE BEST RPR AT LEAST 3 MILES
SO WHAT YOU LOOKING FOR IS SOMETHING COMING INTO FORM THAT CAN LAST AT LEAST 3 MILES IN DECENT COMPANY.
#26
April 20th, 2009 12:46
Last night i Studied the stats that have already been listed and came up with a shortlist of five.
They were:
Church island, Emma Jane, Gone to lunch, Lacdoudal and Parsons Legacy.
After just checking on Oddschecker for prices i note that Emma Jane and arsons Legacy are not priced up so im guessing they have been withdrawn.
Which leaves my shortlist as Church Island, Gone to Lunch and Lacdoudal.
Looking through other peoples lists i note that Gone to Lunch & Lacdoudal are also on Silver Birch’s, Pablo’s and Crisps shortlist so think these are the 2 i willing be going for the win with and possibly using Church Island as a cover bet.
#27
April 20th, 2009 13:02
I was wondering whether he’d run, of course guys Church Island is spot on; best RPR this season, top 3 in a C1 chase, top 2 chase place this season, has won 1 of his last 10 chases, 50% place strike rate in chases.
#28
April 20th, 2009 13:07
Thanks Brian. Will be adding my list as soon as apply the stats I’ve discovered over the current field. ONE QUESTION OPEN TO ANYONE: In my research I.am confused about what range to use on my Official rating? Any suggestions anyone.
#29
April 20th, 2009 13:45
By the looks of it crisp Gone to lunch is very doubtful for running and has only been left in at this stage incase they change there mind so will look through the field again over the next day as weights are rising by at least 5lb’s.
Neil, I tend to not look too much at the OR as there is a very vast range in previous winners although Pablo has noted a quite handy trend in the relation between OR and RPR.
#30
April 20th, 2009 13:51
Yes that’s my conclusion too.OR range looks as clear as mud,because it’s looks to wide.Someone suggeest 129+.So I think I’ll use that.Not sure if I’ll end up with 99% of field though.
#31
April 20th, 2009 14:01
I hope that this isn’t Rambo all over again – but this horse is too good to be true!!!
CHURCH ISLAND is my main fancy – really like the look of this one – especially if ridden by 7lb claimer again (apologies Maureen I think I was a bit hasty in dismissing the claimers finishing in top positions in the Irish National as a coincidence)
Church Island fits the profiles of Mr Frisk, Call It A Day, Ad Hoc (first time), Jack High and Hot Weld perfectly in that they ALL:
1) Had recorded best, seasonal best AND right-handed best RPRs > their OR on the day
2) Win % > 15% (Jack High was 15%, Call It A Day was 22%, others were 33%, Church Island’s is 25%)
3) Place % > 40%
4) Placed in top 3 in a major Spring National that season (Grand, Irish, Scottish)
[Every winner bar one (Harwell Lad) in past 20 years has run at one of the 4 big festivals in March and April (above 3 plus Cheltenham) - this indicates that this race is generally very much of an afterthought with other winners having unseated or failed to stay at a longer trip - i.e. Docklands Express, Usher's Island, Life Of A Lord, Ad Hoc (second time) and Puntal all failing in the National for one of the above reasons]
5) By virtue of these exploits they had all placed in a Class 1 chase over the trip or further within the past 50 days – and it will come as no suprise that they all recorded their best RPR in their last race too
6) They all carried < 10′11 on the day and OR < 146
GONE TO LUNCH also achieves all that bar the best right-handed RPR and is OR 148, 11′0 – a touch quirky too
LACDOUDAL was my major fancy for the Scottish National so might have a saver on him as a previous well-weighted winner especially with PL and OTB coming out (other Hobbs horses) – concern that he might not be himself after injury but still saver material
Still need to know jockey bookings before I bet though – value has gone already and will probably end up playing on the day
Others on my shortlist to double-check and hopefully rule out:
Always Waining
Darkness
New Little Bric
Oodachee
Roll Along
Zacharova
But very excited about Church Island’s prospects with that extra 7 lb coming off!
#32
April 20th, 2009 14:23
Agree that most the value has already gone and i’ll be waiting til they go NRNB now before placing any bets and by then we should have a good idea of what the ground is going to be like as well.
I need to double check this but im sure that half of the previous 10 winners had run in the william hill trophy at the festival.
#33
April 20th, 2009 14:31
Brian – yes William Hill has also been a good guide
This year only Lacdoudal and Golden Flight ran in the race (Golden Flight also in GN)
#34
April 20th, 2009 14:34
Brian yes you run the risk of losing value,but if you bet on anything before you’ve weigh up the facts you might come to the wrong conclusion.Unless lady luck is smiling on you.
I know that even with the stats and figures and you still got a change of being wrong,but its a calculated risk rather than a pure gamble.
#35
April 20th, 2009 16:22
I think that Gone to Lunch had a desperately hard McCoy driven race at the weekend and I’ll be amazed if they run him. I’ve got to back Roll Along whatever happens; glad to see him in a couple of lists!
#36
April 20th, 2009 16:25
Looking beyond possibly the best bets.
New Little Bric’s basic stats are very good thought it has tried 22f or more four times and failed. Darkness, who knows? Perhaps it’ll just get 30f though had a hard race in GN. May be needs a break. Briery Fox could be interesting. Unproven in C1’s but beat Out The Black last time, joint best ever RPR at Sandown. Then there’s … Venetia Williams Zacharova. Won at 29f, won at Sandown, two best RPR’s in last three runs. Not raced in this class but will stay and not many of this field have won a long distance chase.
#37
April 20th, 2009 16:32
Zacharova isn’t running, one less for me to worry about!
#38
April 20th, 2009 17:06
Roll Along has far too much weight by the look of it. Interesting to see which horses actualy run at Perth this week. Erics Charm seems to love Sandown but goes best for McCoy [as does Darkness]. Lacdoudal loves Sandown also [is it a bit of a specialist track?]. Think jockey bookings are going to be very interesting, but then again prices will come in by then. A lot of fancied horses seem a bit iffy with their jumping. Roll Along needs jockey with superglue at times, seems to go better for the Timmy Murphy, Graham Lee type ride.
#39
April 20th, 2009 17:35
I’d be worried about Darkness jumping round – they missed the Pond Fence when he won his Novice there – and he has plenty of weight for what he has actually achieved – but with McCoy on board literally anything is possible
Lacdoudal, Eric’s Charm, Bowleaze and Kilbeggan Blade all Sandown specialists
Those Railway fences take some jumping to keep momentum for bigger horses as they are so close together – GN fences are nicely spaced out so I guess some horses just love it round there
Will Church Island???
#40
April 20th, 2009 17:37
Meant will Church Island love it at Sandown?
#41
April 20th, 2009 18:58
Study the Bet365 and got down to 3 with a possible other 2 to bear in mind.Although prices will be the deciding factor.They are as follows:
Gone To Lunch at 12/1 with skybet and Ladbrokes.
Church Island at 12/1 looks widely available.
Briery Fox at 25/1 at Bet365 and VC (I don’t have one of them bookies near me but if you do I advice you to take it because I don’t think it’ll last.)
(BF as not taken Cheltenham or one the National Festivals route.)
The 2 to bear in mind both pulled up last time,but came second on the last completed trips.Again price will be the deciding factor they are:
Kilbeggan Blade at 16/1 with bet 365 and ladbrokes
Eric Charm at 16/1 with VCBet (although Pablo says appr 7 weeks LTO and his is 10 weeks)
(EC also not taken Cheltenham or one of the National Festivals but has good form at this course.DISMISS AT YOUR PERIL.
Will try to loose a few more before Saturday,but at the moment these are what I’am keen on.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
#42
April 20th, 2009 19:11
Is Gone to Lunch likely to go to Sandown because i think it will be interesting to see AP’s choice between Darkness and GTL, both hit the stats – have to say Church Island is my number one choice though at the moment, lacdoudal and erics charm should go well again
Does anyone fancy oodachee to go well, good performance at Aintree, but maybe carrying too much this time?
Neil – a lot of talk about Kilbeggan blade before GN, decided he is not a spring horse as he clearly likes it soft and his record in C1 are PU everytime – not for me
#43
April 20th, 2009 19:14
It looks like, as someone already said ,that Church Island is the one that is catching everyones eye and hes quickly beconing the “rambling minster” of the bet 365 gold cup … it almost seems too good to be true as he is almost a perfect stats horse and everyone tipping him up. lets hope this time that what looks good on paper proves to be the real deal and he can give us something to shout about… hes my number 1 pick at the moment . however lets hope we have learned from aintree that there is no such thing as a good thing and we can be objective and spot some other viable contenders
I like the look of the following also
Hoo la baloo
Lacdoudal
Erics Charm
Pretty Star
Briery Fox
Zacharova
Hopefully we can pull together and get the winner on sat and round off april with a bang.. !
#44
April 20th, 2009 19:39
Well, Sporting life has Pretty Star and Zacharova as non runners but RP and Attheraces have them both down as runners. Cock up on the catering front Reggie ..
So Roll Along, Gone To Lunch, Lacdoudal, Church Island, Briery Fox, Zacharova.
Maureen, agreed it looks a lot of weight for Roll Along on paper but Llewellyn says he likes good ground, which is what he’s surely going to get, and his RPR and TS favour nicely with Life Of A Lord/Lacdoudal who carried weight.
#45
April 20th, 2009 19:50
100% agree about Church Island – stats all fit and it does seem too good to be true. Blade looking next best for me – only X he has next to him is not recording his best RPR this season. Ground no probs for either.
#46
April 20th, 2009 19:54
Silver Fox,Zacharova and Pretty Star are out I think and Zacharova is too young like I said 2 six old in 51 years speaks for itself.
Thanks for the information on KB,TC.Will look closer at it.
IMPORTANT NEWS ABOUT BET365.
Carl Llewellyn is concerned about the ground for Roll Along.
He says that RA needs good ground and might pull him out.
IF RA DOESN’T RUN THEN THE WEIGHTS GO UP BY 9 POUNDS AND DARKNESS IS THE NEW TOP WEIGHT.
He’s also considering Punchestown,but says if it rains there it might sway him towards Sandown.
Church Island has been revitalised this season.Seemingly suited by headgear.Quoting Hourigan,”I Will have to sit down and look at it,but the plan is to run and he should have a handy weight.Blinkers were the answer.He ran a blinder at Fairyhouse and he doesn’t get a penalty for the run.”
Hoo La Baloo is 6/1 fav with sponsors.Third last year and now 9 pound higher,might be returning to form after running over an inadequate trip,is the view of Pat Cooney Bet365 spokesman.
Lacdoudal has also been popular and has shown a real liking for this course.
This news was got from the Sporting Life site.
#47
April 20th, 2009 20:32
Planning on backing Church Island as everyone seem to agree that he’s one to consider and the news item I reported is positive.
#48
April 20th, 2009 20:53
Seems a definite runner; jumping doesn’t seem to be an issue…think will risk an ante post on Church Island. After that will see who rides what and will keep an eye on the course specialists [Erics Charm and Lacdoudal]. Wonder if there’s a chance of Rhys Flint riding Lacdoudal?Never before thought that so much hinged on jockey bookings, and of course P Nicholls might use Harry Skelton. Fascinating race, albeit not the race it used to be.
#49
April 20th, 2009 21:01
What does anyone know about Oscar Park; I’m sure he was well thought of a year or so ago. Wouldn’t surprise me if the race starts with less than 16 runners, but may have a small ew on Dunbrody Miller if he runs at a huge price! [this is known as desperation]
#50
April 20th, 2009 23:46
Oscar park pulled up last time. Not so bad alone but was his sole run this season. I know that i’ve picked 2 that pulled up as well but time before they were second. Oscar park not for me and if he was to win would not feel to bad myself. Good luck though if considering OP. TC KB does indeed wants a soft surface and if conditions go that way will bet on him.
#51
April 21st, 2009 09:10
Bet365 spokesman Pat Cooney said of Hoo La Baloo: “He was third in this race a year ago off a 9lb higher mark, and we feel he showed signs of a return to form over an inadequate trip last time.
“He comes here a fresh horse having been trained with this race in mind all season and missing the demands of Cheltenham and Aintree will be a big advantage.”
He added: “Lacdoudal has also proved popular recently from 12-1 to 7-1 , and has shown a real liking for Sandown, with two wins and three places from six races here.”
Bookies asking us to put our money on a horse who hasn’t run at a recent big meeting (19/20 past winners have – where’s the big advantage Pat?) and another one that’s back from injury and priced under 10/1 when the value’s gone.
Priceless.
#52
April 21st, 2009 09:10
This just isn’t the race that it used to be. Coming so close to Aintree, Fairyhouse and Ayr it’s a race that is contested by many also-rans from those meetings. I remember a couple of years ago that only 10 turned out for the race won by Hot Weld, a dire turnout for such a decent prize. Only 23 left in at the race at the 5-day stage so if you fancy something e/w it may be best to back now and get 4 places rather than wait as we could end up with <16 runners (already pointed out by Maureen).
After spending quite a bit of time studying for the Aintree, Irish and Scottish Nationals I can’t get that enthused about this so I’m either not going to bet or jump on the blog bandwagon!! Church Island does look good here. He stays, goes on good ground and has decent form going right-handed. My worry would be that he was lit up by the blinkers last time and they may not have the same affect next time. Probably worth the risk at 12/1 though.
The other one that interests me is Oodachee. He ran a great race in the Topham last time and has also been runner-up in a Galway plate. He also ran ok to be 8th in the Kim Muir behind Character Building. Looking through his form, he does a lot of his racing during the summer and presumably that’s because Charlie Swan knows the horse prefers fast ground. He’s won on the flat, over hurdles and is a Grade 3 winner (3m) over fences. I know he falls down on quite a few of the stats but it could be dangerous to dismiss him.
#53
April 21st, 2009 09:12
very trappy affair i feel,but the one i feel has a great chance and seems to be virtually unmentioned is bowleaze and have backed him already ap. does not fit all the stats perfectly agreed but think i have learned from recent history that no horse has to be “perfect” and as long as the main trends are in place then other less rigid can be bent or looked at from a different angle maybe.
#54
April 21st, 2009 09:27
Whats’ the trend for ‘runs in a season’??? More than/less than what??? Cheers!
#55
April 21st, 2009 09:37
No trends last 20 years – anything from 2 to 11 from 01/09 previous year
Which again indicates that this is generally an afterthought – whereas there is a very strong runs in a season trend for GN
13/20 5 to 8 runs since 1st September but I wouldn’t bother with number of runs – too dangerous to rule out anything
#56
April 21st, 2009 09:46
Cheers Pablo
Just another quick one… Is there a trend for how many mares or stallions/geldings have won the race?? Could this trend be applied to the GN??
#57
April 21st, 2009 09:52
Looking for negatives with CHURCH ISLAND:
1) I too have reservations about Church Island in second-time blinkers
2) Also that Church Island has shown better form from the front and might get into a fight with Eric’s Charm up front which would allow Lacdoudal (skinny price but likeliest winner?) or something from the back to come through – CI has been run out of it up the hill at Fairyhouse twice now too
3) Church Island is a big horse and how will he cope with jumping the 3 Railway fences in quick succession? He has hit quite a few fences this season – but then the blinkers might work again
Any thoughts?
#58
April 21st, 2009 10:13
pablo i think your issue 1 is the one most to worry about as we have witnessed this time and time again but also feel he has had a hard season especially last run where he ran a cracker and think there is going to be a fresher horse. bowleaze or erics charm for me.
#59
April 21st, 2009 10:13
Pablo,
I think they’re fair enough comments/worries. Church Island is a safe enough jumper but can hit the odd one. The blinkers helped in that department last time and though it is possible that they might not have the same affect again, they might just be the making of him. I wouldn’t be put off him on that count to be honest. You’re also right in that he could get taken on for the lead and set the race up for something else. That’s probably more of a concern than the blinkers actually.
#60
April 21st, 2009 10:25
What are peoples views on Kilbeggan Blade for this years?
#61
April 21st, 2009 10:39
Kilbeggan Blade is my second choice at the moment. (Church Island has ticks across the board and is first choice) Meets all the trends apart from recording his best RPR this season. I think he’s got a great chance – plus, he’s never fell…..hope I’ve not jinxed it now!
#62
April 21st, 2009 10:48
Yeah hope so just had a little punt on him this morning at 14/1, which i thought was pretty decent!
#63
April 21st, 2009 10:49
Just watched the 2006 renewal again – Lacdoudal very impressive in context of Scottish National last week but even more in context of this race – carried lumps of weight (11′5), almost fell and then almost unseated Johnson due to a faller in front, yet jumped superbly himself and regained composure to win very well (Johnson looking behind for dangers turning for home) – others well held up the hill
If he’s fit and well and vibes from Hobbs are good and Roll Along is topweight I will have to change my order:
1. Lacdoudal
2. Church Island
#64
April 21st, 2009 10:50
Not the value bet but I can’t see anything to beat Lacdoudal on fastish ground off 10′6
#65
April 21st, 2009 10:51
…which makes it the value bet perhaps!
#66
April 21st, 2009 11:07
Just having a look on the RP site at Chuch Islands form. What attracted me was the profile for next years GN (if he enters) which looks very good if the OR can rise a few pounds (curretly 135) in the Bet 365 Gold Cup and he can maintain form next season. A win or place will do nicely.
#67
April 21st, 2009 12:42
Is the ground going to be like the ground description at Ayr on Sat?? Firmer side of good?? Don’t think much if any rain is forecast for Sandown.
#68
April 21st, 2009 15:22
I thought Carl Llewellyn said they were watering already, which is why he wasn’t sure about Roll Along running;remember they want Master Minded to turn up!
#69
April 21st, 2009 15:59
Yes, but a lot also depends on Punchestown going.
#70
April 21st, 2009 18:15
Hello all.Thanks for all the info and views.
I have been looking at my stats for this race going back 20 years and realised the trends are favouring more lightly raced/unexposed horses in recent years-for example -
WON 4 CHASES OR LESS 12/13 13/20
WON 2HCAP CHASES OR LESS 12/13 13/20
RAN 18 CHASES OR LESS 11/12 15/20
WON NO MORE THAN 3 CHASES OVER 3MILES+ 12/13 14/20
So Church Island fits the recent trends more than Lacdoudal[who hasn't been top 3 last completed or top 2 this season either]
I will go through the whole field soon.
Sorry if I have got any details wrong but doing a 20 year plus a 12/13 year trends list is harder than usual.
#71
April 21st, 2009 18:18
Should be Lacdoudal not top three one of last two completed chases.
#72
April 21st, 2009 19:07
St Peter doing a twenty year trend is fine,but be aware that trends might change in that time.
For example the National is the strongest race for trends because its unique however in the 80’s and early 90’s the was a trend of anything in the handicap proper(ie nothing in the long handicap) now the entire field is in the handicap proper (Zabenz carried 10 stone 5 pounds).
When you come to the two that was awarded the race are you going to use them or the ones who was first past the post.
Also I think they was a change in scale on the OR which might explain the rating of 70 in 1989,(but i’am not 100% sure on that.)
Good luck with your findings and keep those aspirins handy.
#73
April 21st, 2009 19:43
Thanks Neil-I’m using the official winners at the mo but will check the other two as well.
I’m always aware of changing trends e.g the emergence of French breds and modern training methods which can skew old stats.
Therefore I’m inclined to go with 12 year trends with this race.
However I’ve still got -
WON CHASE ON GOOD OR FIRMER 18/20-OTHER 2 WITHIN 1 1/2 LENGTHS.
WON RIGHT HANDED-19/20 – USHERS 2ND
BLINKERS-1/20- 8 PLACED TOTAL 51 QUALIFIERS.
TRAINED IRELAND -2/20 – 17 RUNNERS + 2 PLACED.Not many runners for such a valuable chase-maybe most Irish trainers have already targeted Cheltenham and Aintree or waiting for Punchestown.OODACHEE is interesting -only fails on two of my stats-ran 21 chases and not won hcap[2nd 2 1/2 lengths]
I find the Guinness helps more than the pills Neil!
GOOD LUCK.
#74
April 21st, 2009 20:00
Just a small point-is Roll Along keeping the weight down for Hennessy?I see gee lee is already booked for Roll along so I’m assuming he’s an intended runner.I’ll be watching the market to see how it goes with the two Llewellyn horses-they are usually well supported.
#75
April 21st, 2009 20:13
To each his own. I prefer lager. I was also thinking of a 20 year trend which is why i went back 20 years with my record of winners. I think if the a link to the web page that I used if you go to the 20 year list and click neil. If the link not there then the site is the wikipedia subject Bet 365.
#76
April 21st, 2009 20:15
I think carl is in two minds about Roll along. Probably won’t run anywhere.
#77
April 21st, 2009 20:30
Good Man Neil!Thanks -I will post a shortlist when I’ve studied more.
#78
April 21st, 2009 20:55
Glad to help. I can remember some of them past winners. TOPSHAM BAY for example was in my opinion a spring horse. Question to anyone is the anything in the current field that as such a profile. This is something I’ve not thought of until now.
#79
April 21st, 2009 21:24
Bowleaze likes Sandown, seems to be a Spring horse; lots of money going on him..Kilbeggan Blade seems more of an Autumn horse. Beginning to wonder about Church Island and had thought myself that the blinkers might have conjured up a good performance that might not work next time. Hennessy supposedly lacked confidence last year; not sure how he’s been running this season.
#80
April 21st, 2009 21:31
Oodachee loves fast ground when its warmer – might not stay as well as others but has a nice weight if Roll Along pulls out and will go on the ground right-handed
Lacdoudal number one for me
Church Island or Oodachee next best
Probably won’t bet until Saturday
#81
April 21st, 2009 21:40
i agree with your 3 pablo, church island just being my number one though.
I like oodachee as well, only fails on one stat for me,he’s proven he’ll stay the trip with decent runs in the Irish nat without quite getting placed. He is in arguably the best form of his career and missed the Irish nat this year so this could well have been the plan to run at Sandown for a while
#82
April 22nd, 2009 08:13
Glad some people agree with me on Oodachee. After two decent runs in the Topham he’s on my “one to keep an eye on” list for the National next year. Stamina is the worry so I want to see him go close in this.
#83
April 22nd, 2009 09:17
Stayer – I’ve put a list of 14 up for next year on Best Bets thread – would be interested in input from you, TC, Crisp, Systemsman, Showlad etc (apologies to anyone I’ve missed out)
Perhaps we could just add to the list for now? That way we don’t leave anything out!
Always remembering that any horse still (probably) needs to put in one solid performance next year, run 4 to 6 times, last run within 50 days, meet the strike rate & number of chase runs, have the right weight etc etc
And other horses might come to the fore in the Becher, Hennessy or Welsh GN
Why do we bother!?!
#84
April 22nd, 2009 12:41
Pablo, I’ve posted some high % trends that the 2010 GN winner noe needs on best bets thread.
#85
April 22nd, 2009 18:23
nice and simple guys, lets see what the overall fancy is on here
3pts-1st 2pts-2nd 1pt-3rd, add your selection as we go along
3pts – Church Island
2pts – Oodachee
1pt – Lacdoudal
#86
April 22nd, 2009 19:09
Hi everyone- trying to get my shortlist down to four.
Would it be better to wait until the final decs?I’ve got ROLL ALONG onside -only fails two of my stats but they are big ones.
OR 160 and carrying 11-12.Could this horse be way ahead of the others in terms of class ,therefore the weight won’t be a
problem?
If he doesn’t run its a different ball game as weights will rise big time.
I’ve also got NEW LITTLE BRIC ,passed over by Ruby but only fails the 3Mile stat and he’s got the winkers on [which can be interpreted any way but the stats say 1/20 Cache Fleur-51 qualifiers]Hot Weld sported the pieces.
As I’ve said before not a form man so does anyone reckon the Bric won’t stay?
GOOD LUCK AND THANKS!
#87
April 22nd, 2009 20:24
Hi guys,interesting response about the spring horse.
This is also something to bear in mind for the Grand National(After all it is the second leg of the spring double.)
Bowleaze was passed over because it was unplaced last time out.
Well when I mean placed I generally mean first three,I know in some cases it’s first four and this is the case with Bowleaze.
Weight 11 stones seems difficult to pull off,and this doesn’t look a great field so anything over 11 stone must go in my book.Roll Along I think I’am going to count as a non-runner so the weights go up by at least 9 pound.
This leaves me with Laskari to Dunbrody millar.
Here some interesting facts which could be decisive
12 out of 17 ran at chelt.Although it placed horses rather than winners.
The William hill Trophy was responible for 6.
The Gold Cup is woeful though.
9 out 10 had contested no more than 17 chases and 5 out of 9 had fewer than 12.3 were novices.Best age is 7 to 9.
Decent form over at least 3 miles seems necessary.
#88
April 22nd, 2009 20:30
Taking these factors into consideration if I was doing a tricast it would be on these horses:
1=Church Island
2=Oodachee
3=Bowleaze
That’s my selection.In fact I might do it for real.Good Luck
#89
April 22nd, 2009 22:53
Ollie Magern should go well tomorrow – Twister in great form, Brennan back in saddle (absolutely loves the horse) and is greatly favoured by conditions of the race as a Grade 1 winner not having won since 2007 – although he did put up a great performance earlier in the season trying to give State Of Play 10lb on GF (effective on G and GS too) and ran well in RP Chase (significantly better off with Possol) – and has won right-handed on a flat track before
Money Trix the danger but 11/2 seems to me like good value on Ollie
#90
April 23rd, 2009 08:44
Surely Darkness has a chance? Only stat of mine he falls down on is the weight. But not sure what the record of horses that ran in the GN? He’s unexposed, recorded his best RPR this season – over 3miles, right age etc etc. If Roll Along drops out though I suppose his weight will rise?? Church Island looks good though, very good. Think he’s 7lb well in too. Only sticky point is he’s ran over 18 chases.
I also have Henessy in with a shout although he’s not been top three this season.
#91
April 23rd, 2009 08:54
Top 3 for Saturday:
1) Oodachee
2) Church Island
(Both backed @14s)
3) Bowleaze
#92
April 23rd, 2009 09:43
My top 3 for Saturday is providing Roll Along runs:
1. Lacdoudal
2. Church Island
3. Always Waining
(If Gone to Lunch runs then he would be number 3)
#93
April 23rd, 2009 09:59
I don’t know about a top 3 but have had a very small e/w on Dunbrody Millar 150/1!
#94
April 23rd, 2009 10:10
Brian,
I was very interested in Always Waining for the National but he ended up running in the Topham. He thrives on good ground so is very interesting here as well. However, if you fancy him you must also give serious consideration to Oodachee who finished 15l in front of him in the Topham and the two set to meet on the same terms here. I appreciate that Oodachee is currently 4lbs out of the handicap, but the weights were framed before Aintree and he’s set to go up 2lbs I think. I can’t see Always Waining reversing the placings to be honest.
#95
April 23rd, 2009 10:13
crisp 73 where do i find the “best bets” thread? I’ve been looking all over for it. Can you give me the www address? (is it on OLBG?)
#96
April 23rd, 2009 10:17
Systemsman
Under “Popular Posts” left hand side of screen
“Grand National 2009 – Best Bets”
#97
April 23rd, 2009 10:18
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2009/grand-national-2009-best-bets/
#98
April 23rd, 2009 10:20
Systemsman, it is here. Go to ‘Grand National 2009 – Best Bets (2182)’ under popular posts.
#99
April 23rd, 2009 10:28
One interesting stat:
All of the last 12 winners ran last time at either the Cheltenham Festival, Aintree or in a National!
This looks a significant 12/12 stat!
#100
April 23rd, 2009 10:46
Every first-time winner bar one (Harwell Lad) in past 20 years has run at Cheltenham or big National meeting
#101
April 23rd, 2009 12:11
Can someone tell me whether the Venetia Williams pair are running or not . they are in the racing post as runners but not in the sporting life racecard . i like the look of pretty star , although im not sure how he stands up from a trends view . he did indeed runa at the cheltenham festival and had posted a top 2 finish in a chase this season but seems relatively friendless. could he be a danger to church island?
#102
April 23rd, 2009 12:35
SilverBirch i believe only 1 will run and if you look at the racing post card it has A. Coleman riding both so either he got a very wide stance or it looks like only 1 will run.
Stayer, I know what your saying about oodachee v Always Waining and the topham form is quite strongly favouring Oodachee but there just something about Always Waining. Still i’ll only be putting money on my first 2 picks and if gone too lunch runs i will be putting some on him so suppose its a bit irrelevent, well for me anyways
#103
April 23rd, 2009 12:50
Dunbrody not to run
Bowen revealed his other entry, Dunbrody Millar, who is currently 24lb out of the handicap will not take his chance.
#104
April 23rd, 2009 16:56
A day of changing minds – money came for Possol so laid off on Ollie Magern
And now switching allegiances to New Little Bric in anticipation of Hoo La Baloo becoming topweight
Gone To Lunch out and Roll Along doubtful
Can’t see Darkness running off top weight unless they want to get handicap mark down
Lots more weight for Church Island and Lacdoudal – can’t pick a light weight – no obvious ones
Turns the race into a Class 1 0-155 handicap and New Little Bric has won of those this season – looks like Ruby might ride and pedigree doesn’t suggest that he won’t stay
Taken the 20s 0.5pts
#105
April 23rd, 2009 17:42
Looked at the last few runnings of this and it’s definitely one for the ‘top3 in a C1 chase’ brigade. Last 11 winners and most recent placed horses, apart from Juveigneur who won a 29k, are in that bracket. Nicholls expects Hoo La Baloo will be top weight.
#106
April 23rd, 2009 17:50
Erics Charm came in 6th in the only C1 he had contested, won a C3.
#107
April 23rd, 2009 18:54
I find it rather sad that a race full of so much history is turning into ‘just another handicap’.
#108
April 23rd, 2009 18:58
That was my thoughts on seeing the runners first time.
Just feel like an after thought to so many trainers.
#109
April 23rd, 2009 19:01
Any one Knows if the anything still in it.Or has it become a walk over(feels like it.)
#110
April 23rd, 2009 19:23
Hoo La Baloo is now the new top weight.Connections are thinking about replacing Ruby Walsh with a claimer to keep the weight down.
Personally I think that this is a mistake.
Also in my research I found that Hoo La Baloo was running over inadequate trips I think that this also will count against him and I don’t think he’ll last the distance.
Sticking with my original three as I thought weights will go up.
#111
April 23rd, 2009 20:02
What will be the weights if Hoo La Baloo is top weight, will he automatically get 11-12?
Using ‘Top 3 in a C1 chase’ trend;
Hoolabaloo; no top 3 chase this season, 20/21 had top 2
New Little Bric; raced over 22f four times and not placed, only 1/19 had lower place strike rate
Golden Flight; no top 3 case this season, only 2 preps 1/19
According To John; no top 3 chase this season, only 2 preps, low strike rate for a horse with only 8 chases
Verasi; no top 3 chase this season
this leaves;
Lacdoudal, Always Waining,Church Island,Oodachee.
#112
April 23rd, 2009 20:20
Always Waining; raced five times at 27f or more and never placed, only 1/19 had lower place strike rate.
#113
April 23rd, 2009 20:22
Well earlier I reported that the weights will go up by 9 pounds if Darkness was top weight.This meant that Darkness rose from 11 stone 3 to 11 stone 12.
So yes Crisp 73 I think what ever is top weight will carry 11 stone 12 pounds(unless it gets withdrawn on the day).
This is a rise of 15 pounds from the weights when Roll Along topped the weights.
#114
April 23rd, 2009 20:44
crisp 73 -thanks for your work.
Agreeing with you Pablo On the Bric .He hasn’t been mentioned apart from my earlier post-will he stay?
Am I wrong to rule out Lacdoudal?
NOT TOP 2 THIS SEASON[3RD NECK BEHIND 2ND]
RAN 27 CHASES
NOT WON A CHASE LAST 3 RUNS OR COME CLOSE
NOT TOP 3 LAST TWO COMPLETED CHASES.
FIRST 3 YEARS AGO AND LOOKS WELL IN NOW BUT WHAT HAS HE DONE THIS SEASON.
Good luck to all of you who are on but he can’t be on my shortlist.[putting my neck on the line but this site is all about views and opinions -thats why I tune in]
#115
April 23rd, 2009 22:36
Have just read that there is very heavy rain forecast for Sandown on Saturday which could affect the ground by the time of the race.
#116
April 23rd, 2009 22:39
If this rain comes whats everyones opinion of KB or is he out of it now.
#117
April 24th, 2009 01:15
I think KB could win with softer ground but hopefully class will tell and he’ll be found wanting – it’s now a very difficult race to call so small bets really
But might put the emphasis on stamina hence the 1/2 point on NLB
I’m sure I will find another to bet more heavily on or up my stake on NLB
#118
April 24th, 2009 01:24
NLB and saver on Church Island unless I hear good vibes from Hobbs about Lacdoudal
#119
April 24th, 2009 06:03
I think about the class of the race is class one in name only. If the rain comes then I think Kb has a place claim and I think he’s worth a bet.
#120
April 24th, 2009 10:10
BBC website says light showers on Saturday for Esher – so no need to search for a mudlark
Off to Sandown today – pretty dreadful card in terms of betting opportunities – but want to see the Derby trial and Taameer race – find out if he’s smart or not
#121
April 24th, 2009 10:11
Whooo. Took a day off the t’internet and come back to find Hoo la baloo is top weight!!!!
Need to restudy this race now as thats a massive weight rise.
Saying that tho only got small stakes on at the moment and think thats gonna be it for this race as im not really sure if its gonna be worth the effort in actually putting the time needed in at this stage as at quick glance any number could win now.
#122
April 24th, 2009 10:25
Darkness is top weight. 15 go. Glad I took 4 places earlier in the week.
1 Darkness 10 11-12 p C R Egerton W Hutchinson
2 Hoo La Baloo (FR) 8 11-6 P F Nicholls R Walsh
3 New Little Bric (FR) 8 11-3 b P F Nicholls Nick Scholfield (3)
4 Kilbeggan Blade 10 11-2 T R George P J Brennan
5 Always Waining (IRE) 8 11-1 bt P Bowen T J O’Brien
6 Lacdoudal (FR) 10 11-1 P J Hobbs R Johnson
7 Laskari (FR)10 10-12 P R Webber N Fehily
8 Oscar Park (IRE)10 10-12 tD W P Arbuthnot T J Murphy
9 Church Island (IRE)10 10-11 b M Hourigan Denis O’regan
10 Hennessy (IRE)8 10-7 C Llewellyn A P McCoy
11 Bowleaze (IRE)10 10-6 R H & Mrs S Alner R Walford
12 Oodachee 10 10-5 pt C F Swan D J Casey
13 Verasi 8 10-1 b G L Moore J E Moore
14 Briery Fox (IRE)11 10-1 H D Daly M Bradburne
15 Zacharova (IRE) 6 10-0 Miss V Williams A Coleman
#123
April 24th, 2009 10:52
Pablo, Sandown: “but want to see the Derby trial and Taameer race – find out if he’s smart or not”
I have him down as my “bet of the day” but could be wrong with Mailbu Bay the big danger so I will have a full cover bet if I can get the right prices.
#124
April 24th, 2009 12:15
Dennis O’Regan has rode Church Island four times between Sept – Nov 2005 and won all four times.
Church Island even more my FAV now, followed by Henessy and Bowleze.
#125
April 24th, 2009 12:25
Sorry if I misled anyone about Haloo La Baloo that was not my intentions. A case of chinese whispers I think. The going currently Good, good to firm in places. You can check it out on the sporting life site. The rain looks light according to the bbc site. Will double check my facts in future. SORRY.
#126
April 24th, 2009 12:29
Church Island and Kilbeggan Blade for me.
Got to those two using the stats;
1) Age 7-10 (13/15 trend)
2) Weight 11′05 or less (14/15)
3) OR 129-153 (14/15)
4) Best RPR 141-159 (12/15)
5) Min 1 24f chs win (13/15)
Other less significant trends;
1) Min chs prize win of £20k
2) Within 5 OR points of top rating
Kilbeggan Blade has the added bonus of having won twice over course and distance, 100% success rate at Sandown; doubts would be good ground.
Church Island shows the most potential but has never raced at Sandown, and found something better in the Irish National over similar trip. May well be good enough for this race, tho ground could again be better.
#127
April 24th, 2009 12:41
Glad Darkness is top weight makes me that bit happier with my selections after that little scare earlier but still only going to have small stakes on this one.
Admin after this race, will it be possible if we can start a common thread for the 2010 GN as i am now working on my own long shortlist of horses and i see others have already started posting thiers up in other threads and it would be nice if we had them all in the same place. Ta.
#128
April 24th, 2009 12:51
I was wondering what to do (racing terms) after this race. Not a fan of summer jumping, will keep monitoring this site and might add something from time to time. For me jumps don’t get interesting until october/november. Unless the a few flat races we could discuss like Derby or Oaks perhaps.
#129
April 24th, 2009 13:15
Lacdoudal/Church Island, backed, are the trend horses for me.
Oodachee hasn’t won for a long time, though neither had Monkerhostin last year, and still has to prove himself in long distance chases- has tried 26f or more three times over jumps from a similar OR and not finished better than 7th though granted they were classier races than this. Seems to like flat track.
Putting C1 chases aside, Zacharova, have backed it e/w 20/1, is bottom weight and has won at 29f. I think Briery Fox also has a squeak.
#130
April 24th, 2009 14:59
now erics charm is out i am firmly in the bowleaze camp and also think laskari has an e/w chance backed at 20’s with 365.
#131
April 24th, 2009 15:50
so its the end of the jumpin season
just taken a look at this one again, alot happens in a week! not too exciting in terms of the field or the prices, sad all round really now, but hey lets enjoy it while it lasts.
Can’t disagree with you Crisp those are the ones I like, the two at the bottom look the best value and I can’t abandon Lacdoudal, connections have fancied his chances before this season and hes been just out of it in the end, but in the best company! likes sandown.
Only want to back two here so will rule out Church island as little value and feel something will pass him. So out of the bottom two, hmm, I’ll go with Venetias Zacharova I think.
That was quick ey, shame I haven’t been around to read input here recently, you have been busy… postings everywhere, bit worried we will loose continuity if too many places to post, we’ll see ey.
Well good luck in this one my friends,
hope all those still clawing back the Rambo non event “sigh” get lucky!
#132
April 24th, 2009 16:30
According to SP racecards, Zacharova is 7lbs well in, Briery Fox is 5lbs, Oodachee is 2lbs.
Always Waining is 6lbs wrong, Oscar Park is 5lbs.
”By racingpost.com staff12.36PM 24 APR 2009
DARKNESS heads a field of 15 declared for the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday, but trainer Charlie Egerton has warned that the top weight will not run unless there is overnight rain.”
#133
April 24th, 2009 17:19
Hello folks .i assume if darkness pulls out will the weights go up another 6lbs ? or is it too late now ….
After the final decs have been decided ive plumped for the following
1. Church Island – obvious chance – but got on at a tasty price and must be in the mix…
2. Oodachee – concerns as to whether he will stay but decently weighted and if producing his best form must go close off an attractive weight
3. Zacharova – the real dark horse and who would put it by Venetia to provide another trend buster special . young, improving and running off a featherweight
Very best of luck folks
#134
April 24th, 2009 17:29
Thanks to all for their views and analysis.
A poor renewal of a race I always looked forward to.Not confident but my shortlist is-
CHURCH ISLAND
OODACHEE
BRIERY FOX
I will have a saver on the Bric if the prices allow-he either wins or bombs out-16 jumps races,won 6 ,3rd once.Strange profile!
GOOD LUCK.
#135
April 24th, 2009 21:19
Howya,
I remember Ted Walsh saying a few years ago “If you sent away for a monkey, they’d send you Oodachee”. Hopefully Ruby remembers that as it cruises past HLB. A Monkey, Church Island, Bowleaze in your own order.
#136
April 25th, 2009 01:10
What a day – go to watch a horse win a Derby trial and it was so poor but also poor in the paddock (maybe a handicapper to watch) – but got so much better when Greatest Jockey (JF) was paddock-watching two away from me and gave good banter to Master Of Disguises’ (my bet of the day) lad and also said quite openly that he was the pick of the paddock – so doubled my stake
Brilliant day and definitely going back next year – follow the money on faster ground at that meeting is the answer
Sandown is such a nice track on a Friday
And as I walked back to the station over the jumps courses I felt it will take quite a lot of rain to bring Kilbeggan Blade and the softies into the equation
#137
April 25th, 2009 04:55
Thanks for that info Pablo was considering adding KB to my list when I read about the rain. I don’t think I bother now. Might do previous winner Lacdoudal for forecast or tricast. Already got a bet on Church Island to win. Good luck with todays bets.
#138
April 25th, 2009 10:03
Good luck everyone today, lots of money now coming in for oodachee, anyone else fancy Sangfroid in the 2.35 – seems a big price to me
#139
April 25th, 2009 11:02
Out of sheer desperation in looking for some value, I may have a small ew on Laskari, who could be the forgotten horse of the race [and trainer could do with a bit of luck, having lost some decent horses this year].
#140
April 25th, 2009 11:24
Reason for having a bet shoudn’t be ‘why is trainer running horse with no chance whatsoever; must know something that I dont!’Will therefore just watch this race, and not bother having a bet. Good luck everybody.
#141
April 25th, 2009 11:28
Based on the trends and posts so far I make it:
CHURCH ISLAND
OODACHEE
LACDOUDAL
Small stakes only for me – I will enjoy watching as much as winning.
#142
April 25th, 2009 11:43
Booking of A P McCoy for Hennessy looks interesting
Looks a likely stayer and is very unexposed only having had 5 chase runs
Already had small bet on New Little Bric
Will add small bet on Hennessy
#143
April 25th, 2009 13:27
And a cover on Church Island
#144
April 25th, 2009 14:01
Afternoon All!
Showlad reportin’ in, Sir!!
OK My selections today:
OODACHEE
BOWLEEZE
and 2 each way:
KILBEGGAN BLADE (winner on this course and nothing changed since Grand National run and we all thought so highly of him) Class 1 still big Q but this field is no GN so I’ll stay with him this last time.
CHURCH ISLAND Feel he could go either way after Irish National efforts, so can’t ignore today if he can maintain that form.
#145
April 25th, 2009 14:22
The Real McCoy – sorry Mr Francome but he is the greatest
Unbelievable performance
#146
April 25th, 2009 14:26
Hennessy in the GN picture now
#147
April 25th, 2009 14:30
My three were Church Island, Henessy and Bowlease. Luckily took H’s odds at 16’s on Thursday!
He fitted 12/13 stats…..only fell down on Top 3 in class 1/2chase this season. Had ticks right across the board.
Church Island faded but what a never say die effort my the master – AP and H.
#148
April 25th, 2009 14:38
simmered in the sauna from sunset t sunrise.. made all the difference! shoulda followed his commitment there, better than followin the money
almost a carbon copy of McCoys ‘nearly’ in the scottish, glad to see him get this one esp. as my 3rd choice woulda been Briery Fox! A real thriller in the end, pleased with Lacdoudal but well done all on Hennessey.. with 2 nn’s and 2 ss’s 
#149
April 25th, 2009 14:47
Will we see Hennessy in the Hennessy?
#150
April 25th, 2009 15:10
Always the race that you’re not really looking forward to that you really enjoy.Am I right in thinking that McCoy rides Sandown particularly well? Hope that Roll Along goes well at Punchestown next week for Carl who sounds as though he’s had a rough couple of seasons. Church Island very impressive [why did it take the trainer so long to put him in blinkers, though?]. Congratulations to everyone who was on the winner!
#151
April 25th, 2009 16:23
Well done, Hennessey backers.
I probably don’t watch as much racing as some of you guys/gals but McCoy gave Hennessey a ******* unbelievable ride(excuse me, Admin, could find a more apt superlative!)
Thought first four home could be interesting GN possibles. Oodachee has that 2nd at Aintree but failed to reach frame four times now in long distance chases.
#152
April 25th, 2009 16:40
Had a little saver on Hennessy late on just because of the sheer weight of money going on it to record a small profit … nothing earth shattering though . if ever anybody questions who is the greatest jump jockey of all time u only have to look at that today . that was sublime to say the least … well done tony and well done henessy backers! an exraordinary ride
#153
April 25th, 2009 17:08
oh and 2 ee’s! in hennessy so theres 3 2s
did you here its gonna take 23yrs to get out the red! and thats 2032! that tickled me, 1970s here we come!
Any 70s stats/ anomalys I should know about? was the last time national was won twice and back to back too no?. oh and by a same first letter horse too!
anyway maybe a querky factor for next season, or infact the last, still can’t believe I didn’t just back all 3 double lettered names in the GN and be done with it, darn! why did we all rate L’Ami above MM!!!? fools
#154
April 25th, 2009 18:24
Well done Tony on Hennessy.I thought that church island was going to pull it off for a moment.
As for the national like I said to rascal only Mr Frisk won the national then won this in the same season.I’ve never known it happened in reverse,(of course what I mean is win the Sandown Gold Cup then the following season do the national),I don’t get the feeling with this bunch too.Of course I could be wrong but I think some improvement is needed.
In my earlier working of the scottish national I dismissed Hennessy as being outclassed not winning anything other than a class 4 race.
Although I did say he was runner up in a class 2 hurdle.
Now he won a class 1 race,but I said also that I feel that it’s a class 1 race in name only.
Maybe it was Mc Coy who made the difference.
For me I had a bet on Betfair on Church Island and forecast and tricast on Church Island,Lacdoudal,Oodachee and Bowleaze.
I could be wrong and the still need to be improvement but I think that Oodachee could be the one to come out of this if your looking for a future grand national winner,(just my opinion.)
#155
April 25th, 2009 19:10
Whats the total after three “nationals” + 365 Gold Cup?
Rich blood sucking bookies 4 Poor trend punters 0
Lets face it once again few mentioned Hennessy as a sure fire win bet (missed Pablo’s saver bet as I left the house just before his post – Pablo your work is top notch).
What a year – I’ll put it down as just one of those years. Next year I am going to bet only on the GN and the work has started so i hope we have a new heading for the GN 2010 (admin).
So its a day out in the local park + an ice cream for this years summer hols when I was so looking forward to another cruise.
Now for my revenge (I did promise to post this up) which most of you will ignore (in fact 99% will) due to the price. I intend to recoup my GN loses of the Eurovision song contest backing Norway at 13/8 (you have 3 weks to get your money on) with the Tote (yes I know its a skiny price but it will win but if worried have a stake saver on Greece) see more on OLGB TV/Specials forum (Eurovision Song Contest section).
#156
April 25th, 2009 22:15
I think it’s been a very odd year; we went to a racing preview in the autumn and someone said that the horses were struggling on the soft ground as they weren’t fit enough to handle such conditions; then we had lots of cancelled races and trainers unable to work their horses on the run up the Cheltenham; Philip Hobbs’ horses have only recently started running well, and Howard Johnsons horses haven’t done a tap all year. Ferdy Murphy doesn’t seem to have done very well either. Lots of horses must have missed prep runs as well. And I’ve just read that the Whitbread may be moved to Cheltenham……
#157
April 25th, 2009 23:39
Maureen where did you read this. This would make it a new race. Cheltenham left handed course, I think Ascot would be a better move (if they going to move it anywhere.)
#158
April 26th, 2009 08:46
Well, not a great finish to the year, glad i was on sangfroid though in the earlier race. Lets get the GN 2010 up and running admin to get everyones early thoughts
#159
April 26th, 2009 10:57
Think there was an article in The Times about it. Need to re check.
#160
April 26th, 2009 12:58
Think what I have learned from this year’s Nationals & Whitbread is not to bet ante post unless small stakes at very big prices
There are decent bets to be had on the day and the Irish, Scottish and Whitbread all had question marks about the ground and the top weight right up until the day of the race – which totally changed the dynamics of each race compared with the line-up a few days earlier – I had small bets on several non-runners, for example, literally giving money away – big mistake and one that I won’t be making again
I will no longer bet antepost on any of these races unless I can get > 100/1 on Betfair
Whitbread was effectively a 0-145 handicap – so perhaps you can question the form – but I still think Hennessy can continue to progress – will be Maureen’s magic age of 9 next year – has had 6 chases, Class 1 win over 30f, Roselier in breeding – and clearly the trainer can get him ready for the big day – everyone on Channel 4 seemed to be impressed by the way he was turned out on the day – of course McCoy will probably have to ride some no-hoper for JP McManus next April (unless Arbor Supreme or Butler’s Cabin show some decent form in a good race beforehand)
Only problem is – is Hennessy dependent on faster ground? If so any antepost bet is fraught with danger unless it’s at a big price
I think the watering of Aintree will mean that Hot Weld (all major wins on GF) and Parson’s Legacy will probably never get the faster ground they need to win the National – so faster ground horses have it all to do
#161
April 26th, 2009 13:14
Carl Llewellyn did say that Hennessy had a confidence problem, so whether he would turn into a National horse is a doubt [think he could be one of those horses that needs a McCoy type ride]. However, interesting to see how he does in the Hennessy, as it looks as if he will be aimed at it. Have pretty much worked out which horses will actually run in the National after years and years of having ante post bets on non runners [only ones this year were Character Building and Roll Along, with Niche Market ballotted out]; lost money on the other Nationals because of non runners and having less than 16 runners, so will be really careful about that next year.
#162
April 26th, 2009 14:27
Systemsman good luck by the way with your Eurovision song contest bet.I have to agree though with Terry(Wogan) on this score;its all become about political voting rather than who has the best songs.
The only thing I almost sure about is the UK entry will be nearer the bottom than the top.
#163
April 26th, 2009 15:26
Could we lay it?
#164
April 26th, 2009 16:25
Interesting. At this moment in time on Betfair Norway is 2.8 to back & 2.82 to lay. Could be a good back to lay and green up on. Green up is the term where you win on both outcomes, so I believe. Ps I don’t know what the betting is with other exchanges as I’am not a member with them, but betfair is the biggest.
#165
April 26th, 2009 16:30
Did you find your article on the “whitbread” being moved to cheltenham. I looked on the Times site and couldn’t see anything, I also check sporting life and racing post.
#166
April 26th, 2009 17:12
It was written by someone called Alan Lee; I haven’t read it myself, just heard about it….
#167
April 27th, 2009 09:23
Congratulations to all hennessy backers in the Bet365. I managed to get my money back (plus a very tiny profit) as luckily i got on while they were still paying out on top 4 so there is some value in Ante Post in that sense but the true value of Ante post betting does seem to be dwindling very quickly.
#168
April 27th, 2009 11:33
Quick query; when I backed Sea Diva ew for the Midlands National it was on the day of the race and I took a price; however, when Companero was withdrawn an hour or so later there were less than 16 horses, so I didn’t get paid for 4th place. Had I backed her the day before would I have been paid out on 4th? This was at a bookies not Betfair or anything.
#169
April 27th, 2009 11:44
maureen you said you did read about cheltenham (point 6)now you say you never but heard about it.are you wacky in disguise?
#170
April 27th, 2009 12:14
If you put your bet on the day before I think its still ante post. Although I could be wrong. For example I had a bet on User Friendly Oaks, I back Piggott mount. I forget its name, but I backed it the day before at 100/1 with eight runners still in. Come the day of the race and one is pulled out and my horse goes to 33/1. My horse finishes third to User Friendly and All At Sea, but because it still counted as Ante Post I was paid out.
#171
April 27th, 2009 12:17
I backed Church Island on Fri and got paid out for 4th with Ladbrokes.
#172
April 27th, 2009 12:22
I’ve just read the article Maureen’s referring to, I think
- Maureen,I bet you didn’t expect the Spanish Inquisition!-
it seems as though Cheltenham want to host a NH season finale, a bit confusing/doesn’t say for sure whether is includes the Sandown Gold Cup in it’s present state. Sandown also say they might shorten the race and there is also a suggestion from Philip Hobbs to make it a five day declaration race to see if more Cheltenham/Aintree horses take part.
#173
April 27th, 2009 13:38
Nobody expects the spanish inquisition. Sorry crisp could resist it. I think that a move could be a mistake. Granted this wasn’t the strongest whitbread or whatever you like to call it, but you get years like this, the will be better ones.
#174
April 27th, 2009 13:44
While I.am on about change and not always for the better. Cheltenham festival going from 3 days to 4 , its just my opinion but the extra races just don’t seem to be top quality races.
#175
April 27th, 2009 13:53
maureen says:
April 27, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Quick query; when I backed Sea Diva ew for the Midlands National it was on the day of the race and I took a price; however, when Companero was withdrawn an hour or so later there were less than 16 horses, so I didn’t get paid for 4th place. Had I backed her the day before would I have been paid out on 4th? This was at a bookies not Betfair or anything.
If your talking about an online bookie, then when you placed your bet it would say on the receipt what places it would pay out til regardless of whether any more horses pulled out or not.
#176
April 27th, 2009 14:50
Well, I don’t think it’s been a total disaster of a season as trend following goes. With may be a little more thoroughness on my part I should have had Notre Pere,Welsh Nat, and Mon Mome, instead of just getting some pace money but not complaining about that! I must admit I’m still ‘getting’ to grips with a couple of the big chases, knowing which trends to apply is a skill itself. Looking forward to next/this season.
#177
April 27th, 2009 16:26
One of my biggest mistakes was talking myself into thinking that horses had the class for some of these races, when they obviously didn’t [so C1 wins etc are still important]. Also, a closer eye needs to be kept on the summer jumping, which I haven’t really taken seriously; [look at the heights that Snoopy Loopy scaled this year].Have tended to think that horses need a good holiday over the summer, and, sad as I used to be at the end of the season, it was good to have the autumn to look forward to. It’s always my last minute panic bets that get out of hand. Agree with Cheltenham not being the same now it’s over 4 days but had some good wins in the handicaps, because people still insist on backing horses carrying more than 11 st!
#178
April 27th, 2009 17:24
Interesting point about Snoopy Loopy coming from the summer jumping game, however he might be the exception rather than the rule. Does anyone know if any other summer stars made the name in the winter game. However I do think it deserves closer study.
#179
April 27th, 2009 19:20
Well outside the GN type races my investments are going well based on a new system this year – you can follow my investments on OLGB if you want (i cant promise winnings but it will be lots of fun) but dont expect any big prices (its not my style). Hoping to slowly (very slowly) build up a new kitty for next season and the GN. I intend to have my revenge when Norway storm home in the Eurovision Song Contest in two weeks. Its been an inteersting year with many lessions learnt (one being dont invest unless I have and the time and inclination to do my own reserch for any race).
Admin – could do with that new thred Grand National 2010 – ealy views or something.
#180
April 28th, 2009 08:37
Neil,
With regards summer jumpers, Take The Stand was one that won the big summer double (including the Summer National) before then going on to finish 2nd to Kicking King in a Gold Cup. He was also trained by Peter Bowen.
#181
April 28th, 2009 10:34
The Summer National may be worth quick review, with McKelvey winning it in June 2006 before going on to place in the National in April 2007.
Not much standing out as a potential National horse from those placed in the last 4 renewals of the Summer National, possibly Out the Black (2nd 2008) but thats about as good as it gets. Interesting to see the line-up this summer.
I’ve been extending my ‘key races’ research in advance of next years GN – we all know that a good performance in a Hennessy / Welsh Nat / Irish Nat / Becher (14 out of last 17 GN winners have top 5 finish in 4 years prior to GN win) is a trend to keep an eye on, but I’ve extended this to compile a list of the top 5 horses over the last 4 years in the following races:
Listed or above races at 26.5f+
Grand National
Irish National
Welsh National
Scottish National
Midlands National
Summer National
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Hennessy Gold Cup
Haydock Gold Cup
Sandown Gold Cup
Classic Chase
Servo Computer Trophy
Races over National fences:
Becher Chase
Topham Chase
Grand Sefton Chase
This review kicks out 300 horses in total (15 races x 5 places x 4 years) of which approx 178 different horses are included.
Applying the following trends;
1) Age in April 2010 8-12
2) Current OR 136-147
3) Best TS min 128
4) Best RPR min 144
5) Min 1 24f+ chase win
6) Min 17k chase win
7) Raced in last 12 months
Reduces this list to just 15 horses.
Clearly attention must be paid to next years renewals of these races, and any movement in OR for horses currently just outside this range, but as an extremely early shout (and not one I will be supporting with any cash!) 4 against the field for the 2010 National;
1) Character Building
2) Irish Raptor
3) Russian Trigger
4) Niche Market
NB: This approach (x-referencing once the relevant years GN runners had been announced) would have provided a shorlist containing the winner in every year since 1989 with the exception of Seagram. I’ve not researched earlier than 1989.
#182
April 28th, 2009 11:18
Yes I think I remember Take The Stand, Correct me if I’am wrong didn’t Pipe train him. Pipe used to race his horses on firm going during the summer. Didn’t know that Mc Kelvey start from the summer game though. Perhaps the times are a changing. Is the any other races we should be considering as well.
#183
April 28th, 2009 11:40
Looking up the summer national I see that it a 0-150 class one race over 33 furlongs at Uttoxeter seems very similar to the midlands national that produce 1997 winner.
#184
April 28th, 2009 11:47
Sorry stayer you did say Peter Bowen I must have being thinking of Make a stand. Point taken the summer game needs closer attention paying to it, because like it or not its here to stay.
#185
April 28th, 2009 21:16
Gammers great work. I have also complied a similar list but going back only 3 years and first four not five (except Hennessy so your list is better than mine. I agree with your thinking here and the winner is probably in that list of 178 runners (+ anything new that wins a big race next year like the Welsh Nat).
Excellent short list with which i concur:
1) Character Building
2) Irish Raptor
3) Russian Trigger
4) Niche Market
I have been waiting for a new heading to post my OR V RPR using the same races so will post it here soon if we dont get a new GN 2010 heading (Admin this would make sence now).
Would extend the OR up from 147 to 150 (just to be safe as I was wrong by just two points this year in my Xmas list with my maximum set at OR 146)- do you have the numbers if we did this and a new short list?
#186
April 28th, 2009 22:20
Re watched the Topham last night and, even though Irish Raptor was amazing, he ploughed his way through a lot of the fences..Oodachee looked a much smaller horse but jumped brilliantly. Have always said that I would re watch all of these races and never get round to it, but this year I will! What age is Irish Raptor? He seems to have been around for ages.
#187
April 28th, 2009 22:29
Gammers
“Reduces this list to just 15 horses”.
Any chance you can list all 15 for us to examine in more detail – it would be some fun for us fanatics during the long summer months. I think we owe it to ourselves to work much harder next year so that we get a big early price on the winner to make up for 2009. I dont think you can ever overexamine such a unique race and its a fun hoby anyway. I for one am happy to back six at christams as huge prices knowing I will probably lose two but the return on a win is worth it (and the high for weeks after!!).
#188
April 28th, 2009 23:31
Maureen I believe Irish raptor is nine at the moment, but this info is on this site.
#189
April 29th, 2009 10:52
Interesting ‘four’ for the 2010 National guys.
Each to his own but be wary of Irish Raptor/Niche Market. Both have a place strike rate, 33% and 38% for chases considerably lower than the previous 19 GN winners, lowest was 47%- Amberleigh House, at this point in time. Irish Raptor has already 5 career falls/ur which equals highest for last 19 GN and has ran in 6 C1 chases and only managed a best of 5th. I can see Niche Market improve considerably next season after his Fairyhouse win, he’s only 8 years old, and improve his strike rate/and he needs another chase win to get 3 chase wins (which is a really long standing trend) but his OR is 146 now and if he does have a good season how high is his OR going to be next Spring?
#190
April 29th, 2009 11:12
Fair point Crisp, as always the real work begins once the weights and runners are announced – Niche Market has a fair chance of being clobbered by Mr Smith I would think.
Maureen – Irish Raptor is 10, will be 11 for GN2010
Systems – the 15 in full, which includes quite a few that would appear immediately unlikely are;
Character Building, Church Island, Cornish Sett, Erics Charm, Forget the Past, Hoo la Baloo, Irish Raptor, Lacdoudal, L’ami, Niche Market, Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Russian Trigger, Simon, Trabolgan.
If the OR were extended upwards to 150 we could also include Dear Villez, Rambling Minster and State of Play.
#191
April 29th, 2009 13:29
Oh, and for what its worth, if you extend back beyond the last 4 renewals to pick up top 5 horses in earlier years that would still be 12 or under in 2010, the list of 15 becomes 16 with Celestial Gold added. No additional horses in the 148-150 range.
#192
April 29th, 2009 13:43
Many thanks Gammers – gerat work that will me something to think about and work on.
Or 136 to OR 150 possibles (the longer list) given by Gammers
Character Building, Church Island, Cornish Sett, Erics Charm, Forget the Past, Hoo la Baloo, Irish Raptor, Lacdoudal, L’ami, Niche Market, Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Russian Trigger, Simon, Trabolgan, Dear Villez, Rambling Minster and State of Play.
So its 18 early possibles (if entered) with good trends – which are obvious no hopers that we can probaly disgard? An interesting puzzle – any views out there?
#193
April 29th, 2009 14:01
Forget the Past is an interesting one; must be coming down the weights by now and was a very high class horse a couple of years ago. If State of Play’s weight didn’t go up too much his jockey was gutted this year that he didn’t win. Big Fella Thanks I shall back for a place next year; know he’s too young and he’ll have too much weight, but he ran a stormer this year [horses his age don't usually finish, let alone be 6th or whatever he was]. Church Island has been a revelation this year, and probably won’t get too much weight if they’re careful about placing him next season.
#194
April 29th, 2009 14:03
Don’t know Irish Raptors breeding, but it did say on here that he just hasn’t stayed extreme distances so far; bit of Strong Gale floating around somewhere?
#195
April 29th, 2009 14:15
Gammers, thanks for Forget The Past/Reveillez, those two have perfect stats.
#196
April 29th, 2009 18:42
Everyone is missing Mr Pointment of their list, he’s my no.1 at the moment, he hits all the stats
#197
April 29th, 2009 19:24
I don’t know if it would help in your research,but over on the Mon Mome thread Green St left a message on april 28 at 3:43 pm I thought I bring it to the “main” thread.(Admin we really could do with one place for everyone to bring their ideas to.)
He says that http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk is an excellent site for your research.
#198
April 30th, 2009 08:42
TC – Mr Pointment is on my ’secondary’ or watch list behind the 18 listed above.
He falls down only on the ‘Best TS’ stat, as he records a rating of 124 against the main trend of 128+. Another concern would be his OR of 143 – fine at the moment, but would need to see what sort of campaign he has before weights are announced, a good performance in the Becher for example would probably result in him carrying too much weight.
That opens the whole Denman can of worms of course…
One to keep an eye on.
#199
April 30th, 2009 09:56
I would agree with Gammers 4 but add State Of Play:
But would also add:
Arbor Supreme – no key race but won 24-runner 30f handicap against more seasoned handicappers as 6yo and is trained by Hedgehunter’s trainer
Hello Bud – sensational record for NTD in only 6 runs for him – interesting to see how he gets on and where he goes next
Big Fella Thanks – great run as 7yo and should be stable’s number one next year for this race
Mr Pointment – well handicapped but doubts over ability to stay given free-running style
Butler’s Cabin – weighted out of it this year but possible for next year if trainer gets him to show some form at some stage and handicapper isn’t harsh
So my top 10 in alphabetical order would be:
Arbor Supreme
Big Fella Thanks
Butler’s Cabin
Character Building
Hello Bud
Irish Raptor
Mr Pointment
Niche Market
Russian Trigger
State Of Play
Got a feeling that other Irish horses will come to the fore and perhaps not from key races – might be worth considering previous years’ top Irish handicaps and this year’s Kerry National too – handicapper put Preists Leap, Black Apalachi and Hear The Echo up by 7 or 8lb over there adjusted marks this year (each had won a high profile race within past few months) – Hedgehunter won Thyestes and Bobbyjo chase
#200
April 30th, 2009 10:41
Will post up my OR V RPR in next two days but would love to do it on a new GN 2010 general thred – Admin please sort this out pleaseeeeeeeee.
Just a quickie on results.
2008 best OR v PRR is key GN races (an example)
Welsh National
Notre Pere
OR 152 RPR 166 +14
Won Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup ysterday of OR 163 (new RPR not given yet)
#201
April 30th, 2009 10:48
I don’t understand why so much emphasis is put on topspeed
Monty’s Pass (2003 winner) had topspeed 111 and won the National as easily as anything – going on to be 4th the next year off 11′10
Surely topspeed is one of the weaker stats that has only lasted as far back as 6 Nationals?
In terms of 20/20 as at end April before National the only two I can find are:
Age 7 to 11
Strike rate (1, 2 ,3 in chases) of 47% or higher
In terms of 20/20 on day of race:
Age 8 to 12
Strike rate (1, 2 ,3 in chases) of 40% or higher (can someone please confirm?)
Best RPR – OR for GN = 5 or higher (19/19 – no data available for Mr Frisk)
Days since last race < 50
Best RPR = 144 or higher
Chase wins 3m+ = at least 1
Placed in key race
Of these the RPR 144 makes sense as the lowest OR to win was Bindaree 136 and therefore this ties in nicely with the Best RPR – OR 5 or higher stat (i.e. at least 5 lb in hand on best rated performance)
Age and strike rate seem reasonable – experienced enough and consistent enough
Winning over 3m or more is an indication of stamina
Race within last 7 weeks shows that the horse has shown some wellbeing recently (Red Marauder fell at first but sent off well-backed favourite)
The key race one interests me because, on the one hand, it is clearly inconsistent with 5th in this race but only 3rd in that race, but on the other, what it does show is either ability to negotiate Aintree fences in competitive fields or do well in big staying handicaps in competitive fields
The only problem is that only one race occurs in Ireland – I would argue that this stat might be the one to go first – King Johns Castle, Snowy Morning and Slim Pickings all came close without key race form – whereas Black Apalachi and Hear The Echo were clobbered by handicapper having shown key race form
#202
April 30th, 2009 10:53
At the risk of a pointless blanket post that doesn’t add much…
Based on criteria in my post above horses currently in the frame;
Character Building, Church Island, Cornish Sett, Erics Charm, Forget the Past, Hoo la Baloo, Irish Raptor, Lacdoudal, L’ami, Niche Market, Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Russian Trigger, Simon, Trabolgan.
Those that are just missing out on the criteria;
Dear Villez, Rambling Minster, State of Play, Celestial Gold, Rare Bob, Always Waining, Cerium, Butlers Cabin, Ponmeoath, Bother Na, Brooklyn Brownie, Himalayan Trail, Mr Pointment, Oodachee, Private Be, Wild Cane Ridge, A New Story, Briery Fox, Kelami, King Harald, Out the Black.
#203
April 30th, 2009 11:04
Pablo – can you compile a list of the best races in Ireland that are competed over a distance of 26.5f or above? We could add these to the list of races to consider.
I’ve extended the ‘key race’ stat to top 5 in all races listed above to remove the inconsistency you mention in compiling ‘qualifying’ horses for 2010.
Think there are some issues in my historical TS stats – will be going back to check these again. Not clear from Racing Post website whether the TS of 145 I had for Monty was achieved prior to, or in winning the GN.
#204
April 30th, 2009 11:59
Gammers – yes will do but will probably take a while – also want to look at the races previous Irish winners competed in for any hints
Always need to check RPR and TS prior to win – not suprisingly winners usually produce very high RPR and TS – often best ever
#205
April 30th, 2009 12:05
Monty’s Pass achieved a TS of 145 in the National itself.
The previous best for him was 111
#206
April 30th, 2009 12:18
Guys, I stated before what I found in my research to ’see what the winners had in common’.
Came up with this;
Criteria A; a top 5 Hennessey place, a top 3 in I,S,W national, a top 2 in a race over GN fences. 29/40
Criteria B; or 3 chase wins over 24f including 1 at 28f or more 7/40
Total 36/40.
If you wanted to add a top 2 in the Paddy Power(Mackeson),Gay Trip/Specify and say 5 chase wins at 24f or more, Red Rum,73/Lucius, you would have 40/40.
However, the Criteria A,25/30, and B,5/30 have got stronger over the last three decades and are now 30/30. Out of these two Criteria A is now 17/20, 12/12.
In many ways I think a top 5 Hennessey against a top 2 in the Becher, for instance, is ‘consistent’ as the Hennessey is a classier race, while an I,S,W national is usually classier than say the Becher or Topham.
Anyway, I’ve found it’s just another useful tool and a guide to finding the GN winner.
#207
April 30th, 2009 13:11
Crisp – not disputing the worth of the Criteria A – just want to research other races in Ireland over the past 10 years and see what patterns emerge – but definitely three things will be on the minds of trainers:
1) Carrying 11′0 or more is no longer the burden it appeared in the past – so better horses might actually turn up in preference to Cheltenham (can’t train a horse all year thinking I hope it’s < 12lb above bottom weight)
2) In-form Irish-trained horses were generally treated poorly this year(see below)
3) The handicap will be compressed to encourage better horses
I feel that this is bound to affect the OR range on the day and perhaps the trainers choice of races in the next year or so
Consider previous Irish winners:
Bobbyjo = last OR in chase of 128; OR in GN 128 (carried 142 as 14lb out of handicap) = 0 lb change in rating by handicapper
Papillon = 138; 139 = 1 lb extra by handicapper
Monty’s Pass = 137: 139 = 2 lb extra by handicapper
Hedgehunter = 144; 142 = 2 lb extra by handicapper
Numbersixvalverde = 135; 138 = 3 lb extra by handicapper
Silver Birch = 138; 138 = 0 lb change in rating by handicapper
Now consider this year’s Irish ones:
Hear The Echo = rated 145 after Irish GN; 153 = 8 lb extra by handicapper! Double penalty or what?
Black Apalachi = rated 146 after Becher Chase; 153 = 7 lb extra by handicapper! Double penalty or what?
Preists Leap = rated 146 after Thyestes Chase; 153 = 7 lb extra by handicapper! Double penalty or what?
Chelsea Harbour = rated 148 after Thyestes Chase 2nd; 156 = 8 lb extra for coming 2nd and 10lb higher than when coming a well-beaten 9th the year before = OUTRAGEOUS TREATMENT
Snowy Morning, Southern Vic, Silver Birch, Offshore Account, L’Ami, Irish Invader and Himalayan Trail all treated fairly
So it appears performing well in high profile staying handicaps within past 12 months is not on if Irish-trained
None of the fairly treated ones had won a chase except L’Ami (£8k X-Country) and Irish Invader (hat-trick of races under 2m 3f)
So if you were an Irish trainer – what would you do?
#208
April 30th, 2009 13:15
Perhaps you’d take the Southern Vic approach
#209
April 30th, 2009 13:24
Clan Royal after winning Becher carried 8lb higher in GN (next race)
Mr Pointment after winning Becher carried 9lb higher in GN (ran again after weights out)
Black Apalachi after winning Becher carried 17lb higher in GN (won again AFTER weights out)
So Black Apalachi carries as much as the other 2 put together
It makes the mind boggle!!
Seriously check those weights out next year – random in my opinion – or biased against Irish horses as alleged by Irish trainers – you make up your own mind… beware of the antepost punt on Irish horses
I hope one comes through that has been plotted to the max!!!
#210
April 30th, 2009 13:43
Pablo, you’ll like this;
King John’s Castle; 2nd 08 National- in Jan 08 recorded RPR 18lbs higher than OR, recording best ever chase RPR 152, when 2nd in a C1 chase on a left handed track.
Snowy Morning; 3rd 08 National – in Feb 08 recorded RPR 14lbs higher than OR, recording best ever chase RPR 157, when 3rd in a C1 chase on a left handed track.
Slim Pickings; 3rd 07 National – in March 07 recorded RPR 7lbs higher than OR, recording best ever chase RPR 147, when 5th in a C1 chase on a left handed track.
He wasn’t Irish trained but as a matter of interest looked at;
Simply Gifted, 66/1 3rd in 05 National- in March 05 recorded RPR 7lbs higher than OR, equalling best ever RPR 142 for chases, when 3rd in C1 chase on left handed track.
Four horses who recently finished in the top 3 in the GN who didn’t have any form in Hennessey etc.
#211
April 30th, 2009 13:44
Are the rating systems consistent though? Two different handicapping boards BHA vs IHA. Could be that BHA feel IHA generally rate equivalent horses lower?
Not convinced myself, but just a thought.
#212
April 30th, 2009 14:31
Gammers – I agree that there might be come inconsistency between the two boards but it is the inconsistency of the approach to the Irish horses by the BHA which annoys me – very hard to make the case for the way in which Chelsea Harbour was treated – there was no ‘Aintree factor’ for him, surely?
Niche Market ran off a fair mark in Ireland
Now the interesting thing might be, and I can’t remember whether this is gospel, Chelsea Harbour was allotted 146 in 08, Irish rating 138 (+8lb) and in 09 156, Irish rating 148 (+8lb)
Is the original handicap rating allotted first time the GN OR for life that is then adjusted based on performance in race or over Aintree fences (the Aintree factor) and subsequent performance on track?
If so, do the weights allocated in Feb 09 stand for next year even if a horse didn’t subsequently run in April 09? (subject to adjustment for any performance afterwards)
If yes then Character Building was 139 now 145 = +6lb but GN rating was 140 so new GN rating (subject to future performance) would be 146
Niche Market was 136 now 146 = +10 lb but GN rating was 137 so new GN rating = 147
#213
April 30th, 2009 14:40
Crisp – I certainly do – recent form on left-handed tracks
But early days and this other Irish angle is in the ‘further research’ category – and let’s be fair there is plenty of time to discuss before Xmas
Key races is still one of the better pointers and will continue to be in my ratings
#214
April 30th, 2009 14:45
Some more performances by horses who didn’t have form in Hennessey etc, who came close to winning GN;
Smarty, 2nd in 01 National, in Jan 01 recorded RPR 15lbs higher than OR, only just below all time best, when 2nd in C3 chase on left handed track.
Blowing Wind, 3rd in 01 National, in Jan 01 recorded RPR 19lbs higher than OR, equalling all time best, winning C3 chase on left handed track. 3rd in 02 National, in March 02 recorded RPR 9lbs higher than OR, equalling all time best, winning C1 chase on left handed track.
#215
April 30th, 2009 19:22
Just been analysing Mom Mome.I know he was second in the 2006 Welsh national,but looking at his more recent form got me thinking did he slip under the radar and how could we identify similar cases.
So I took the Key races and see what Mom mome did in the season leading to his win.
First Key Race is the Coral Welsh National he was 8th to Notre Pere on soft going.
Reason he blundered at the 2nd,not too bad to miss him with this one run as you probably not looking to close to the “also rans.”
Second Key Race an hurdle race.Recent trends are trainers entered the Grand National Fancies in hurdle races.This one was a novice hurdle at Towcester over 3 miles on soft.Coming second to Kilbeggan
Blade.Still nothing as the most be thousands like this with the same profile.
Third Key Race the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock.Now correct me if I’am wrong but isn’t that your Haydock Gold Cup.
He finished 7th to Rambling Minster on Heavy ground.
Fourth Key Race Midland National in which again he finished an also ran this time Russian Trigger took the honours.
Each key race by themselves wouldn’t be much as he was well beaten in all of them and we (myself included) are looking at the (1,2,3,etc.),but together surely deserves further study if nothing else.
#216
April 30th, 2009 20:20
Just to follow up on my own question from earlier today; there appear to be 6 races in Ireland (other than the Irish National) contested over greater than 26f. These are;
1) Cork National – November – 28f
2) Porterstown Chase (Fairyhouse) – Nov – 29f
3) Ulster National (Downpatrick) – Feb – 28f
4) Grand National Trial (Punchestown) – Feb – 28f
5) La Touche Cup (Punchestown) – Apr/May (today!) – 34f
6) Eventus Chase (Punchestown) – Apr/May (tomorrow!) – 30f
Some, none or all of these might also be worth consideration.
#217
April 30th, 2009 21:24
Gammer is the a race in Ireland called the Exodus chase or something of a similar name and is it important to staying chases like the Gold cup or the national.
#218
April 30th, 2009 23:52
Trainers’ comments can be quite insightful in the Racing Post – not conclusive but a valuable pointer
For trends followers Monty’s Pass’ 2nd in Topham was a key race positive but consider his record as a handicapper…
Galway Plate 2000 – 2nd
Kerry National 2000 – pulled up
Kerry National 2001 – 2nd
Munster National 2001 – 3rd
Aintree Topham 2002 – 2nd
Kerry National 2002 – 1st
Munster National 2002 – 3rd
Grand National 2003 – 1st
And in comments section after Kerry National victory:
Trainer Jimmy Mangan said: “The plan is the Martell Grand National and he will run in the Becher Chase at Aintree in November. He jumped super when he ran second in the the Topham Trophy last season and he seems to handle most types of ground. It was really firm today and that didn’t bother him and neither did the fences, which were the hardest I’ve seen anywhere.”
Now he didn’t go to the Becher – wise move Mangan
But he was relentlessly run in ‘National’ races – and the fences were tough in Kerry National
So perhaps the key race run over 2m 6f (not 3m+) was a fact-finder and a good pointer rather than the key race – seems to have had better credentials than Irish Raptor for example
Experience waa the key for Monty’s Pass – he was no one-hit wonder
Now do all Irish horses need the ‘Aintree experience’?
#219
April 30th, 2009 23:59
Consistent tough Irish handicappers are worthy of consideration in their own right in my opinion
#220
May 1st, 2009 00:20
Which courses are the hardest to jump in both Britain and Ireland? I ask this because potental national winners need to show that they can jump. The fences might be altered but can still bring down the inexperience.
#221
May 1st, 2009 14:20
Just a quick note to say that I’ve been able to confirm that the 6 races listed above in addition to the Irish National are the only ones raced at above 26f in the last year in Ireland.
Not everyone will choose to bracket races worthy of further investigation in this way, but I think it will form a large part of the 2010 research for me at least.
#222
May 1st, 2009 14:37
Would be very wary of La Touche Cup as a key race – Cross Country race – horses must do more than jog round and jump quirky fences (Silver Birch used as warm up & to get fit – had already won Welsh GN)
I’m going to look at Kerry & Munster National too
#223
May 1st, 2009 16:26
Did anyone see Ballytrim win at Punchestown today. Gave the second horse a stone running over 3m 7f; will be 9 next year and was on my list of horses bred to stay over 4 miles this year. Worth keeping an eye on! Had an idea that his jumping wasn’t too good earlier in the season [may be confused with horses with similar names] but, as an 8 year old should improve.
#224
May 1st, 2009 16:28
Connections knew that Montys Pass would improve a stone going left handed; assume they ran him on right handed tracks that year.
#225
May 1st, 2009 17:45
Montys Pass won the Kerry National that season left-handed on a flat track with best ever performance
Think Ballytrim will have a job getting in to the National – only rated 123 today – but shows he stays well – best performance before today on better ground too
#226
May 1st, 2009 17:53
What do you think that the minimum rating should be. Don’t forget Ballytrim could improve before the weights are famed in Feb (although it is a huge rise.)
#227
May 1st, 2009 19:21
Getting convinced that a horse needs a portfolio of experience in key races or Irish equivalent before it’s ready to win – only looked at last 10 years
The obvious exception in last 20 years appears to be Lord Gyllene who was rated 121 April before victory but improved to go off 149 in National – we might get such an improver next year but it will be obvious – it won’t go under the radar
Anyway back to last 10 Nationals and big race experience (clearly all placed in a key race – but this is “ran in a key race” – irrespective of placing, falling etc)
Mon Mome = 1 GN, 2 Scottish and 2 Welsh
COD = 1 Scottish, 1 Welsh, 1 Hennessy
Silver Birch = 1 GN, 1 Welsh (win), 1 Becher (win)
Numbersixvalverde = 1 Irish (win), 1 Thyestes (win), 1 Paddy Power Chase, 1 Pierse Chase
Hedgehunter = 1 GN, 1 Welsh, 1 Hennessy, 1 Grand National trial (win), 1 Thyestes (win)
Amberleigh House = 2 GN, 1 Topham, 3 Becher (1 win)
Monty’s Pass = 1 Topham, 3 Kerry National (1 win), 2 Munster National, 3 Galway Plate
Bindaree = 1 Welsh, 1 Hennessy, 1 Topham
Red Marauder = 1 GN, 1 Irish, 1 Hennessy
Papillon = 3 Irish, 1 Irish Hennessy, 1 Paddy Power
Bobbyjo = 1 Irish (win), 1 Heineken Gold Cup, 2 Paddy Power, 2 Pierse
By comparison four of this year’s fancies look a bit poor – especially given that they were 10 or 11 – none had a key race place and also perhaps insufficient key race experience – just not mixing enough in the right company maybe
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Darkness
Brooklyn Brownie
#228
May 1st, 2009 20:11
Pablo just for the records what are the key races in Ireland?
#229
May 5th, 2009 14:57
Not sure really what the key races are in Ireland:
Hedgehunter got 4th in Hennessy, 3rd in Welsh and fell in National in UK as well as winning a couple of decent Irish handicaps
Silver Birch got his key race experience when in UK trained by Nicholls
Monty’s Pass ran in Topham but ran in loads of Kerry and Munster Nationals back in Ireland as well as the Galway Plate
Papillon ran in 3 Irish Nationals as well as a couple of other staying handicaps in Ireland
Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde both won Irish National and ran in a few big staying handicaps at 3m+ in Ireland
#230
May 5th, 2009 18:46
Thanks for looking Pablo.
#231
May 6th, 2009 16:23
Darkness had a RSA place Pablo, as did Comply or Die and Miinnehoma.
Ok I know 2 in 20 years isn’t fantastic, but thats as many as have placed (1-2-3) in the Scottish National and gone on to win!
#232
May 6th, 2009 17:31
I understand the National Hunt Chase at the Festival is a good one for throwing up future stars.
#233
May 6th, 2009 18:31
The Darkness had a place in the RSA argument was used by someone on Betfair but that was years ago and its only other runs post-Novice in Nationals or Class 1 races were P,P.
According To John was placed in the RSA behind Denman, but I wouldn’t touch that one with a barge pole until it shows some form against decent horses
Four horses have run in the RSA and won the National in the past 20 years but all have subsequently placed in a key race against battle-hardened opponents and ran a few times against them as well:
Miinnehoma (Gold Cup etc)
Rough Quest (Gold Cup etc)
Earth Summit (won Scottish & Welsh National etc)
Comply Or Die (4th Hennessy etc)
Darkness has not achieved anything remotely like that – no form in a big field of decent horses
#234
May 6th, 2009 18:33
Should read Miinnehoma 3rd in Welsh National
#235
May 7th, 2009 09:29
I wouldnt disagree with any of that Pablo, just saying that he had ran in some sort of trial. Its for the reasons you mentioned that I wasn’t at keen on him, although I bottled out and had a 1/2pt saver in the end!
#236
May 7th, 2009 18:12
Trends for the Derby:
1) 18/18 won last race before Derby except if beaten in Group 1 or Grade 1 at 3 (Generous 4th in Guineas, Dr Devious 7th in Kentucky Derby, Sir Percy 2nd in Guineas, New Approach 2nd in Irish Guineas)
Quest For Fame (1990) came second in Chester Vase to Belmez who didn’t run in Derby – otherwise horses beaten in a trial do not seem to overturn the form in the big race itself
2) 10/10 recorded RPR of 118 or above at 3
3) 12/12 won over 10f or 11f as a 3 year old unless run in Group 1 at 3
So it appears that we need a horse that has:
1) Recorded RPR of 118 or above at 3 – regardless of form at 2
2) Not been beaten in last race unless in a Group / Grade 1 at 3
3) Must have won over 10f or 11f unless run in a Guineas (or Kentucky Derby)
Three horses qualify so far:
1. Sea The Stars (RPR 123, 1st Guineas)
2. Gan Amhras (RPR 118, 3rd Guineas)
3. Rip Van Winkle (RPR 118, 4th Guineas)
Not expecting much from Dee Stakes or Lingfield Derby Trial but Dante next week should be very interesting – but a few need to improve quite a bit in my opinion
At the moment I think it’s too close to call with no outstanding candidate – if I had to have a bet I would pick Gan Amhras because the trainer clearly stated that this was a prep run beforehand (assuming of course he sends it to Epsom!) – should come on a bundle and, to me at least, looks to have a better prospect of staying than Sea The Stars or Rip Van Winkle
#237
May 7th, 2009 18:15
And of course Derrinstown at Leopardstown – Fame & Glory and Mourayan etc
#238
May 7th, 2009 21:37
Looking at the trial races for the Derby http://horses.sportinglife.com/Stat/Key_Trials/0,25222,302706,00.html
Sea the stars having won the Guineas and the Juddmonte stake looks strongest but we have to see what comes out of the Dante.
It would be interesting to see the pedigree of Sea the Stars to see if Northern Dancer figures or any other such good influnces.
#239
May 7th, 2009 22:11
Sea The Stars is by Cape Cross who was a miler but has produced the odd stayer and Urban Sea who is a stronger staying influence but the pedigree seems to be splitting people into a) will stay b) won’t stay
I couldn’t back a horse at 4/1 or less unless I was more comfortable that it might stay – however should nothing impress in the trials I will have a cover bet because its class might get it through – travelled superbly at Newmarket
#240
May 7th, 2009 22:14
Key races for Derby are:
Chesham stakes (listed) won by Free Agent
Keepmoat Champage Stakes (group 2) won by Westphalia
Haynes,Hanson & Clark (condition Stake) won by Taameer
Juddmonte Bereford Stake (group 2) won by Sea the Stars
Parknasilla Hotel Goff (c&q)million Stakes won by Soul City
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (group 1 colts & fillies) won by Naaqoos
Deloitte Autumn Stakes(group 3) won by Kite Wood
Darley Dewhurst Stakes (group 1) won by Intense Focus
Mountgrange Stud Horris Hill Stakes (group 3) won by Evasive
Racing Post Trophy (group 1) won by Crowded House
Eyrefield stakes (Listed) won by Mourayan
Prix La Force (group 3) won by On Est Bien
Betterbet European Free Handicap (listed) Won by Ouqba
Tuddenham Mill Feilden Stakes (listed) won by Redwood
P.w. Mcgrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (group 3) won by Fame and Glory
Virgin Money Chester Vase (group 3) won by Golden Sword
Information can be found on sporting life web site
#241
May 7th, 2009 22:26
No 4/1 or less actually 5/2 with the magic sign is a lousy price and if fancied then I suggest on the day(he might even be a better price.)
#242
May 7th, 2009 22:34
No bets for me until after the Dante
I had a smallish ante-post bet on Freemantle at decent odds a few weeks ago on Betfair – hope he goes for Dante
#243
May 7th, 2009 22:42
Whats everyones opinion of Golden Sword was he lucky (given a soft lead) or could he reproduce that in the Derby at 40/1 I think that he deserves closer attention.
Racing Post says worth taking a positive view.
#244
May 8th, 2009 19:17
Please fogive this diversion one last time as i dont want anyone to miss out.
Its one week on Saturday for “Grand National revenge time”!
The gamble is laid out the money is on and all being well every penny lost on the 2009 GN this year will be recouped. Its on the Euroviosn Song Contest Saturday week and there still time to get an OK price.
For those who want a safe bet back Norway big (7/4 fav) to win with savers on Greece, Turkey and Bosnia/Herzegovina (who will soon overtake Turkey as 3rd Fav).
For this who want to take more risk but more profit back Norway big with a stake saver on Greece (6/1 – all the 7/1 gone on the High street).
You can see my posts facts. figures and evidence on OLGB at:
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=24565&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
Now i could look a right plonker if I get this wrong (as I did last year and only invest what you can afford to lose and still smile)but if correct I havnt posted this to look clever i just want to help those like me who lost on the GN when we can get it back next Saturday and make those same bookies pay and pay hard!!
Remember: its only advice and nothing is certain – make up your own mind on the facts available.
Back to the GN very soon.
#245
May 9th, 2009 20:48
I’m having an ew on Freemantle tomorrow in case his price comes in dramatically after next week. I kept looking at Golden Sword and wondering why he was such a huge price. Ballydoyle seem to be having a strange year; wonder if we may see Aiden O’Brien training a Grand National winner in a few years time?
#246
May 12th, 2009 07:03
Four Derby qualifiers now:
1. Sea The Stars (RPR 123, 1st Guineas)
2. Gan Amhras (RPR 118, 3rd Guineas)
3. Rip Van Winkle (RPR 118, 4th Guineas)
4. Fame And Glory (RPR 120, 1st Derrinstown)
Fully expecting another one to come out of the Dante, which would mean the most competitive Derby for a long while (4 qualifiers the most there has been in past 10 years)
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if one or maybe two didn’t make it (RVW or STS trip, GA trainer has previous)
Bookies being ultra-cautious – should be better prices nearer the day – although longest priced winner for past 10 years is 7/1
#247
May 12th, 2009 09:51
Oaks is generally harder to call than Derby – some fillies show more rapid improvement from trial run to race
At the moment 4 interest me:
High Heeled (beat colts over 10f – entered at York tomorrow and Newbury on Friday)
Mooakada (beat colts but not sure whether will run – Gosden and Hamdan have others – entered on Friday at Newbury)
Beauty O’Gwaun (beat colts – entered tomorrow night at Naas)
Enticement (beat Midday as 2 year old – entered at York tomorrow)
#248
May 13th, 2009 17:41
I think Iceland could cause a bit of an upset..am having a tiny ew on Beauty O’Gwaun tonight for the Oaks just in case her price drops dramatically after tonight. Can’t say we’re not adaptable on this site, can they?!
#249
May 13th, 2009 18:49
Thanks Pablo; hadn’t realized she was running on Wedenesday; got 16/1. she’s now 8/1.
#250
May 13th, 2009 19:10
Waited until I could evaluate last week’s Chester Vase form.
Been reading on other opinion pages ie Teletext how Fallon got it wrong.
My racing paper’s time expert says this about the Chester Vase winner Golden Sword.
Was never headed when outpointing stablemate Masterofthehorse in the Chester Vase last Thursday and his time was 2 seconds quicker than standard,comparatively the quickest on the card and well worth a speed figure of 112.
Much of the gloss was taken off his performance because of the widely held view that the runner-up and hot fav was given plenty to do.The winner’s detractors surmised that because the script didn’t unfold as expected the form is devalued.an unsung hero perhaps,but it was an excellent effort judged on the clock.
Golden Sword is proven at the trip and versatile as regards ground.
He is largely ignored in the market but if given the green light, could be in the frame on 6th June.
With this report I be doing Golden Sword when I get non runner no bet on the Derby.
#251
May 13th, 2009 19:38
Small correction I said Fallon I actually meant J Murtagh
#252
May 13th, 2009 22:43
RP not sure whether Beauty O’Gwaun will go for the Oaks…
“She had looked a decent sort when she accounted for the above-average The Bull Hayes in a back-end Curragh 7f maiden last October. She looks a good prospect and is in the Epsom Oaks, but is not certain to go there. Trainer John Oxx said she might need more racing and she likes some cut so “Epsom might not be up her street”.”
#253
May 14th, 2009 15:04
Be interested to see how the RP rates the Dante but don’t think anything will win the Derby from it (but will include any qualifiers from the race in my final analysis)
In the last 10 years or so the 3-y-o form has been far more informative than anything achieved at 2 and this year’s Group 1 Guineas form looks to be the strongest with GAN AMHRAS (very likely to stay and improve for the trip) and SEA THE STARS (the best 3-y-o colt albeit with slight stamina doubts) my choices
Worried that Fame And Glory won over 10f on heavy ground at 2 – doesn’t scream Derby winner to me – more like St Leger winner
And James Bolger has a good line to him through Fergus McIver who has been no great horse as a 3-y-o and John Oxx too through Mourayan who also looks a bit slow as a three 3-y-o
Rip Van Winkle might be the flea in the ointment but surely he won’t stay 1m 4f of a fast-run race with Stravinsky (sprinter) as damsire – and I’m sure that Ballydoyle will see that it is fast with the stamina doubts over the best horse (Sea The Stars)
Will wait until NRNB though as not 100% certain both will line up but both are genuine Group 1 horses with solid recent form in the book
The Oaks looks impossible with many of the market principals suspect stayers in my opinion and others doubtful runners – might opt for a long-shot when NRNB
#254
May 14th, 2009 23:17
RP rates Black Bear Island and Freemantle on 118 which is my threshold
Have already had a small bet on Freemantle at big odds and he might well improve quite a bit as most of O’Brien’s seem to have done this season after a run (but still got beaten today)
Still keen on GA and STS though
#255
May 15th, 2009 09:56
Using won last race before Derby except run in Group/Grade 1, RPR of 118+ as 3-y-o
Five Derby qualifiers now:
1. Sea The Stars (RPR 123, 1st Guineas)
2. Gan Amhras (RPR 118, 3rd Guineas)
3. Rip Van Winkle (RPR 118, 4th Guineas)
4. Fame And Glory (RPR 120, 1st Derrinstown)
5. Black Bear Island (RPR 118, 1st Dante)
Close but second in last race:
6. Freemantle (RPR 118, 2nd Dante)
Once again bookies seem to have this one right again – last year 3 qualifiers 1, 2 ,3 in Derby
#256
May 15th, 2009 12:11
Pablo I see that your list is growing. Obviously I know that you already got a bet on Freemantle, but if you haven’t who would you favour. Would it be Sea the Stars because it’s rating is slightly bigger than the rest.
#257
May 15th, 2009 13:09
Waiting for NRNB – hopefully Gan Amhras entered – he’s my number one
With saver on Sea The Stars (best horse but doubts over trip)
Don’t like O’Briens horses as much as those 2 but seems to be a very open race
#258
May 16th, 2009 10:06
There is still time to pick up a little of that lost money on the GN. The Eurovision Song Contest is tonight and its looking good for Norway but Evs (Coral/Tote) is the best you can get in the High Street today. You can never be too sure about anything but all the signs look good for Norway – see OLBG (Specials/TV) for more.
Its time to kick those bookies hard where it hurts and tonight is the night!
Good luck to anyone out ther having a go and reading this.
#259
May 16th, 2009 11:10
morning systemsman.
thought a little e/w on ukraine and azerbajan maybe.4 places with ladbrokes.also reckon greece may avit due to that bloke has long connection with eurovision,apparently.hope norway do biz for you mate.good luck.
#260
May 16th, 2009 12:07
what price is Iceland? still think they could do really well…..do like the Norwegian song, though!
#261
May 16th, 2009 13:17
Iceland are 20/1 with ladbrokes.
#262
May 16th, 2009 17:38
good luck with Norway backers. I’m waiting for epsom to bash those bookies
#263
May 16th, 2009 22:27
Good call Systemsman well done.
#264
May 16th, 2009 23:04
Yipeeeeeeeeee! Forgive my moment of joy now that I have recovered all loses on the GN. It took nerves of steel and a lot of patience (its the waiting while holding back from investing on other things thats hard with a big investment at stake)to pull of and the ESC is also one o the best bets in the year other than the GN so a I hope a few more will join me next year after the 2010 GN is over (lets hope its not a recovery bet).
I did try to help others and I hope atleast one or two joined me.
Now on to the GN 2010 which between us we can win this time.
#265
May 17th, 2009 00:58
Looking at the Dosage Index of the leading contenders of the Derby, (although my understanding is very limited),Sea The Stars looks very well indeed.
Northern Dancer is in his pedigree he his great,great grandsire.I knew he had to be in there somewhere.
I think the Derby will go to Sea The Stars,but the value might still lie with Golden Sword if at 40/1 when nrnb gets announced.
#266
May 17th, 2009 08:52
I have to admit I didn’t watch it but very well done Systemsman – your homework paid off really well and you called it weeks ago
Also great each-way shouts from Maureen on Iceland and Green St on Azerbaijan (I assume they paid 3 places)
GN 2010…
#267
May 17th, 2009 10:30
Now that Eurovision has become a proper song contest again, I think we could do really well next year [as a betting medium, I mean!]. Azerbajan caught me out completely, but my overall favourites were Norway, Iceland, Turkey and Bosnia. Have to admit to not backing Iceland in the end because I’d heard that the winners usually came from the second half of the programme and thought such a sweet song would get overlooked by the time the voting started. Must have more faith in my judgement in future. Brilliant spot by Systemsman and Green St!
#268
May 17th, 2009 11:13
well done systemsman.
i had little touch on norway and also in some doubles and trebles coming up.
cheers.good shout
#269
May 19th, 2009 15:43
Freemantle was Pricewise in RP today @ 20/1 e/w for Derby
Now best priced 16s
“The Dante has been the best trial in recent seasons and Black Bear Island was certainly impressive when winning at York last week. He scythed through the field to win in good style and is a serious
contender, but I have my doubts about him over a strongly run 1m4f and I wouldn’t want to see him ridden out the back like he was at York.
Much more interesting is Freemantle. The trends boys won’t like him one iota as no horse beaten in the Dante has gone on to win at Epsom, but it had been a lifetime since a French-bred had won the
National before this year and basically that’s a load of old
nonsense.
I thought Freemantle looked like a really classy horse for 95 per cent of the York race. The O’Brien horses have been coming on a bundle for their first run of the season and there is no reason why
Freemantle will be any different. It looked a case of him blowing up in the last half-furlong at York and with that run behind him I would expect him to be much the best of the Dante runners.
Whether that is good enough to beat Sea The Stars I don’t know, but Frozen Fire was beaten a whisker in last year’s Dante and went on to
win the Irish Derby, and I expect Freemantle to be a lot better than him. The 20-1 looks a very decent each-way price to me.
The other horse to consider strongly has to be Gan Amhras from last year’s winning yard. Jim Bolger’s colt ran a Derby trial very similar to Generous, Sir Percy and New Approach in the Guineas and his pedigree does suggest 1m4f will suit. It is certainly not that long a shot that he can turn the tables on Sea The Stars.”
Tomorrow they will do Oaks Pricewise
#270
May 20th, 2009 09:33
Pricewise recommends 14/1 Beauty O’Gwaun (with improvement expected) and 6/1 Rainbow View (probably best horse) for Oaks
#271
May 20th, 2009 15:25
Afternoon all,
Not been on here for a while as flat racing isn’t really my bag. I don’t wish to de-rail your discussion on the Classics, but there’s something of interest regarding the National you may wish to know.
Tricky Trickster, winner of the 4-Miler at The Festival, changed hands for 320,000gns at the DBS Spring Sales a short while ago. The buyer; one P. F. Nicholls. Looks like this one will be his big National hope in 2010 or 2011.
http://www.dbsauctions.com/
Cheers,
The Stayer.
#272
May 20th, 2009 17:32
Interesting stuff Stayer – only a 6 year old so plenty of time for GN raids
Big question mark is he’s up 20lb for winning 4 mile novices’ chase for amateur riders at Cheltenham and therefore doesn’t look particularly well handicapped for next season’s National (OR 149)
But has looked very progressive on softer ground so maybe Welsh National might suit first?
Notre Pere (7-y-o) won off 152
Halcon Generlardais (6-y-o) won off 147
Although I prefer Companero for Welsh GN at this very early stage
#273
May 20th, 2009 21:54
Thanks for the info Stayer.
Tricky Trickster will be a 7 year old when the next grand national comes around.Maybe a bit young for modern grand national stats but if you dig deeper you see that Bogskar won the 1940 grand national age 7,so not entirely impossible.
Speaking of national the summer national is due around June/July wonder if anything would emerge from it like McKelevey did to challenge for the main national in april.
#274
May 20th, 2009 22:07
Crikey; I thought the expected price was £250,000. Would have thought that, with the aim being the Grand National he would be better staying with NTD. Actually backed him at Cheltenham without realizing he was a 6year old [tipped up by someone else, I hasten to add]. I may have a go at backing a few long priced horses in the Derby in the hope that everyone has got tunnel vision about O’Brien, and there may be a staying on horse at a good price for third place!
#275
May 21st, 2009 08:36
Some info from RP:
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL winner Tricky Trickster was bought by trainer Paul Nicholls for £320,000 as a 2010 John Smith’s Grand National prospect at yesterday’s Spring Sale in Doncaster.
The six-year-old was offered from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable in Million In Mind’s annual dispersal on the back of his victory in the four-mile National Hunt Chase. He always looked destined to cost a lot more than the £40,000 he had been bought for at Cheltenham 13months ago.
Royal Shakespeare’s owner John Webb and Robert Waley-Cohen, whose son Sam was on board at Cheltenham, both tried for the Oscar gelding but Nicholls – acting for Esher-based owner Chris Giles – faced his final and most determined opposition from trainer Donald McCain.
“Chris rang me last week and said he’d like to try and get this horse and obviously I’m delighted to have a National prospect like him,” said Nicholls.
“Chris has only had horses with me for about a year, he’s got the likes of Red Harbour and some nice youngsters, so it’s good that a relatively fresh name to racing is buying a horse such as this.
“There’s no point in hammering his handicap mark so I we’ll start him off in novice hurdles, as he’s still eligible to run in those, until the National weights lunch and then we could go for a race like the Eider at Newcastle.”
Interesting. So the horse will have a novice hurdle campaign until February and will then have one, maybe two starts over fences before the National. He’s only run in 4 chases thus far so the National looks like being his 6th or 7th start over fences. Will have to be a real stat-buster if he were to win as a 7yo with such little experience, no class 1 form (yet), no Hennessy or other key race form etc.
#276
May 21st, 2009 12:52
perhaps that’s why P Nicholls doesn’t have a great deal of success with the National; didn’t he say he just tended to treat it as ‘another race’…more respect needed methinks!
#277
May 21st, 2009 14:05
If that is so, then why didn’t he let Denman run, or at least keep him in the declarations stage longer.
#278
May 21st, 2009 14:49
“Neil says:
May 21, 2009 at 2:05 PM
If that is so, then why didn’t he let Denman run, or at least keep him in the declarations stage longer.”
Cos he was running scared of the flat track machine that is Madison Du Berlais who will be 9 next year and might well give Kauto Star a run for his money in the King George in December
#279
May 21st, 2009 15:19
At least the penny seems to have dropped with Nicholls regarding protecting handicap marks and he’s not going to foolishly run a 149 rated horse in the Hennessy, Becher or Welsh National. The problem with this horse is that he’s rated 149 after a mere 4 chase starts and you would think that before tackling Aintree he would need more experience of jumping fences under his belt. However, if they run him in chases and he wins he would face further hikes up the ratings. If it were up to me I would be entering this horse in some chases from 2m-2m4f. Having won over 4m as a 6yo, stamina is clearly his forte and the fact that he’s never raced at less than 2m5f is probably a good indication that his previous trainer (NTD), thought he probably lacked the pace to fair well over shorter trips. By running him over trips short of his best he’s unlikely to win but will at least be picking up some experience over the bigger obstacles. The handicapper may even drop him a lb or two.
#280
May 21st, 2009 17:39
That is probably correct Pablo,but I’ve another theory.
The Grand National has a reputation for killing one or two horses each year(this year’s tragedy was Hear The Echo.)
Nicholls and also the owners decide you can’t risk a horse like Denman in a race like that.
Of course this is just my believe and I could be totally wrong on that score,but it strange how the current/defending Gold Cup is never in the National.
Ps sometimes the space is just too short between festivals,but that has stopped others from Cheltenham festival going on to Aintree.
#281
May 21st, 2009 17:52
Whats interesting from Stayers report dated May 21st 2009 and timed at 8.36 AM was that Donald McCain was interested in Tricky Trickester too.This would propbably be McCain Junior,but Senior wouldn’t be too far away.
It was Ginger who bought Red Rum for Le Mare back in the early 70’s,a fluke perhaps or perhaps he has an eye for these things.
So maybe Nicholls has just bought the next Red Rum and Tricky Trickster will win 3+Nationals.(I hope not because rummy holds a special place in my heart.For an equine.)
#282
May 21st, 2009 22:02
Now we down to a more manageable number in the Derby,I will give you the full Dosage Index and Centre of Distribution as well as the Dosage Points.
The Dosage Index is a mathematical system relating Speed and Distance via the horses pedigree.
1=Age Of Aquarius (DP=18 DI=0.89 CD=0.11)
2=Black Bear Island (DP=40 DI=0.82 CD=0.00)
3=Crowded House (DP=50 DI=1.04 CD=0.22)
4=Debussy (DP=28 DI=0.70 CD=-0.14)
5=Fame And Glory (DP=28 DI=0.65 CD=-0.25)
6=Father Time (DP=24 DI=1.29 CD=0.33)
7=Fergus McIver (DP=40 DI=1.05 CD=0.18)
8=Freemantle (DP=24 DI=1.29 CD=0.29)
9=Gan Amhras (DP=22 DI=0.76 CD=-0.05)
10=Golden Sword (DP=18 DI=0.80 CD=0.00)
11=Johann Zoffany (DP=22 DI=0.91 CD=0.14)
12=Kite Wood (DP=24 DI=1.09 CD=0.21)
13=Loch Long (DP=22 DI=1.10 CD=0.27)
14=Malibu Bay (DP=30 DI=1.61 CD=0.43)
15=Masterofthehorse (DP=46 DI=0.77 CD=-0.09)
16=Montaff (DP=22 DI=1.32 CD=0.41)
17=Rip Van Winkle (DP=22 DI=1.10 CD=0.27)
18=Sea The Stars (DP=16 DI=3.00 CD=0.81)
19=South Easter (DP=36 DI=1.25 CD=0.25)
20=Toraidhe (DP=22 DI=1.00 CD=0.14)
I believe that the Derby Dosage Index should not exceed 3.80 and that the CD is the balance between speed and stamina.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index
This link will explain the Dosage system better.
#283
May 21st, 2009 22:26
Basically the jury is out with regards to the dosage index – it is, in my opinion, a useful pointer but is not a shortcut to finding the winner – preparation and track performance must also be taken into account
Gam Amhras still for me – Jim knows his best Derby horse!
#284
May 21st, 2009 22:34
Neil – some more information (hope it formats ok)
Last 19 years Derby runners and DI by band (2 runners missing but one came 20th and the other 23rd in 1994 – both 250/1 or bigger)
Less than 0.60: 18 runners; 1 win(s); 3 placed 1, 2 or 3
0.60 to 0.79: 43 runners; 2 win(s); 8 placed 1, 2 or 3
0.80 to 0.99: 48 runners; 5 win(s); 11 placed 1, 2 or 3
1.00 to 1.19: 41 runners; 4 win(s); 11 placed 1, 2 or 3
1.20 to 1.39: 19 runners; 0 win(s); 4 placed 1, 2 or 3
1.40 to 1.59: 28 runners; 2 win(s); 4 placed 1, 2 or 3
1.60 to 1.79: 19 runners; 0 win(s); 2 placed 1, 2 or 3
1.80 to 1.99: 15 runners; 3 win(s); 3 placed 1, 2 or 3
2.00 to 2.99: 53 runners; 1 win(s); 9 placed 1, 2 or 3
3.00 to 3.99: 14 runners; 1 win(s); 1 placed 1, 2 or 3
4.00 or more: 6 runners; 0 win(s); 1 placed 1, 2 or 3
All runners: 304 runners; 19 win(s); 57 placed 1, 2 or 3
DI doesn’t look great for selecting Derby winner although either side of 1.00 is marginally favoured
#285
May 22nd, 2009 09:18
It was my understanding that one of the best ways to interpret the Dosage index for the Derby is to concentrate on the last 2 figures which dictate the stamina side of the horses pedigree.
Neil or Pablo do you have the full Dosage indexes for the Derby runners and if so which one have the most Solid & Professional points,looking at the runners Neil provided Black Bear Island has a nice profile with a C D of 0.00 it is a perfect blend of speed & stanima as he displayed in winning the Dante at york,if only we new what Aiden’s plans are on which horses will run or NRNB from the bookies
#286
May 22nd, 2009 12:24
All the details of my Dosage index findings can be found on http://www.pedigreeequiry.com then just enter the horses name.
#287
May 22nd, 2009 12:29
Sorry I made an error the correct address is http://www.pedigreeequery.com then just enter the name of the horse.
#288
May 22nd, 2009 12:33
http://www.pedigreenquery.com is the correct address
#289
May 22nd, 2009 12:34
http://www.pedigreequery.com is the correct address
#290
May 22nd, 2009 12:42
The last one is the correct address. I sorry for sending in so many duff addresses. I Guess that what comes when you use mobile internet. Hope it helps you half day harry. Pablo I respect your point of view and will look into all 20 horses when I get to my main computer.
#291
May 22nd, 2009 14:04
half day harry
From discussion we’ve been having on Betfair:
http://www.bettingmarket.com/derbydosages.htm
…provides dosage profiles for Derby winners going back a long way and for this year’s market leaders (you can get the rest from pedigreequery.com)
What is interesting is that Sea The Stars has 0 stamina points but:
Nijinsky – did the Guineas / Derby double (and a lot more besides) and had 0 stamina points
0 stamina points also for The Minstrel (1977) , Commander In Chief (1993), Erhaab (1994) and Benny The Dip (1997)
So in the past 20 years we have had 3 horses winning the Derby with 0 stamina points
It does suggest that Sea The Stars has it all to do but it is not impossible when the great Nijinsky did it (not saying STS is in that class yet)
#292
May 22nd, 2009 19:15
Here are the top speeds and racing post ratings for the 20 derby hopefuls.I know that racing is more than figures,Pablo,but figures how me to form an opinion.
Derby Hopeful TS RPR
Age Of Aquarius 111 121
Black Bear Island 125 132
Crowded House 135 134
Debussy 119 122
Fame And Glory 128 134
Father Time 79 120
Fergus McIver 114 121
Freemantle 125 132
Gan Amhras 131 132
Golden Sword 126 125
Johann Zoffany 84 97
Kite Wood 122 128
Loch Long 60 90
Malibu Bay 100 113
Masterofthehorse 122 125
Montaff 80 120
Rip Van Winkle 130 132
Sea The Stars 137 137
South Easter 117 117
Toraidhe 101 100
Looking at these figures which can be checked on the Racing Post Website I still have to say Sea The Stars.The only question is will he stay with a dosage index of 3.00 I thought so,but since you’ve brought to my attention that he has no stamina points on his DP then questions are beginning to form.
Half Day Harry would love you’re input on the matter,thanks Pablo for the info about Sea The Stars stamina doubts.
#293
May 22nd, 2009 19:35
does anybody know how old tricky trickster will be at GN2010
#294
May 23rd, 2009 00:25
rpr on racing post website is sometimes the best ever irrespective of trip, class etc – not an overall view of form for a particular race really
#295
May 23rd, 2009 00:32
need to rephtase that – the adjusted rpr next to the racecard is dodgy in my opinion because it is based on best ever regardless of current race situation
#296
May 23rd, 2009 06:12
I know that racing is all about chances/ percentages of winning like even a 100 to 1 will have a chance. The problem for me on that score is I only think about absolutes, maybe that why I.am hopeless when it comes to thinking about value for money. Golden Sword needs to improve on the figures and now is a top price 33 to 1 but I think I found it in this case.
#297
May 23rd, 2009 08:54
I agree about RPR and also TS and also Timeform figures also fall into the same category which is why i look for one close to the conditions of the day. The rest is all about opinions.
#298
May 26th, 2009 00:13
Pablo been looking Deeper into the Derby and while you say Sea the Stars might not stay the trip and pointed out to me that he’s no stamina points in his Dosage Profile I think the way he won the two thousand guineas he will, but the one that’s taken my eye is Fame And Glory although my research is still early he’s the only one to have reported to quicken up. Maybe that burst of speed will blow them all away. I personally can’t see anything that was beaten winning unless the was a valid reason for it. Good luck with your Derby and Oaks bet. If I don’t win hope you do. ADMIN PLEASE COULD WE HAVE A NEW THREAD SO WE COULD DISCUSS OUR GRAND NATIONAL EARLY THEORIES ON.
#299
May 26th, 2009 15:34
Can’t see any mention of Church Island in the ante post betting which surprises me.
#300
May 31st, 2009 17:27
Derby – while we are waiting
Two against the field for my mums fun bet and mine (you cant make much money on it at the prices avilable) – what do you thing out there? Any better suggestions?
Now the winner is normely in the first four or so in the betting. 2000gns winners have a poor record in the Derby (I think its two in 40 years or am I wrong?) So this leaves the two Derby trial winners who will make the distance.
Fame and Glory
Black Bear Island
One of these to win.
Fame and Glory looks the best to me.
#301
June 1st, 2009 13:55
My approach to finding the 2009 Derby winner:
1. 19/20 won last race except if ran as a 3-y-o in Group 1 (a Guineas or Kentucky Derby) – makes sense because a horse should be in good form or running in top company in its preparation – exception was Quest For Fame who came second to Belmez in Chester Vase but Belmez didn’t turn up in Derby (but won King George)
2. 10/10 RPR at 3 of 118+ – makes sense because reflects very useful form at 3 with the trials a month or less before the race
3. 20/20 won over 10f+ as 3-y-o except if contested a Group / Grade 1 as a 3-y-o or unraced at 3 – makes sense because a reasonable indicator that 12f should be attainable
Average best RPR pre-Derby at 3 (of those raced at 3) in last 20 years = 118
Average winning Derby RPR over last 20 years = 125
Five horses qualify:
1. Sea The Stars (RPR 124, 1st Guineas)
2. Fame And Glory (RPR 120, 1st Derrinstown)
3. Gan Amhras (RPR 119, 3rd Guineas)
4. Rip Van Winkle (RPR 118, 4th Guineas)
5. Black Bear Island (RPR 118, 1st Dante)
Looked at last ten years – 1999 had 4 qualifiers (1st, 7th, 9th & 14th), 2000 2 (1st & 2nd), 2001 2 (1st & 2nd), 2002 4 (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 8th), 2003 2 (1st & 13th), 2004 2 (1st & 7th), 2005 2 (1st & 3rd), 2006 2 (1st & 12th), 2007 1 (1st), 2008 3 (1st, 2nd & 3rd)
4 forecasts from a possible 9 when 2 or more qualifiers
2 tricasts from a possible 3 when 3 or more qualifiers
Possible weaknesses in the qualifiers:
Sea The Stars & Rip Van Winkle – concerns over trip
Gan Amhras – lower than average wins to runs (25%) vs 33% minimum last 20 years (16/20 50%+)
Fame And Glory – won over 10f on soft at 2 – no Derby winner for at least 20 years has run at more than a mile at 2 years old
Black Bear Island – slight doubts over Dante form with a blanket finish, whereas 3-y-o Group 1 form seems to be holding up well
Improvement required in best 3-y-o RPR by other trial winners (last run) to win an ‘average’ Derby:
Golden Sword: 14lb
Age Of Aquarius: 17lb
South Easter: 22lb
Improvement required in best 3-y-o RPR by horses beaten in non-Group 1 trial:
Kite Wood: 11lb
Masterofthehorse: 15lb
Crowded House: 16lb
Debussy: 17lb
Montaff: 18lb
Conclusion:
Gan Amhras main bet
Sea The Stars saver
#302
June 1st, 2009 16:59
“Looked at last ten years – 1999 had 4 qualifiers (1st, 7th, 9th & 14th), 2000 2 (1st & 2nd), 2001 2 (1st & 2nd), 2002 4 (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 8th), 2003 2 (1st & 13th), 2004 2 (1st & 7th), 2005 2 (1st & 3rd), 2006 2 (1st & 12th), 2007 1 (1st), 2008 3 (1st, 2nd & 3rd)”
Fantastic work Pablo once again (its going into my “Black Book”) and what results all 10 winners from the last ten years!!
Pablo: If you put a £1 on all 24 qualifying runners in the last ten years would you make a profit?
Why Gan Amhras main bet Sea The Stars saver rather than say Fame and Glory?
Keep up your excellent work Pablo I am a fan.
#303
June 1st, 2009 18:07
Systemsman – think the 5 qualifiers are all strong and all have weaknesses but don’t want to bet on all 5
Don’t get me wrong Fame And Glory has done nothing wrong – unbeaten, won Ballysax and Derrinstown at 3 with similar RPR to O’Brien’s other 2 winners (the excellent Galileo and High Chaparral) – on the face of it the stats say that he has Derby winner written all over him!
However my take on it is that he has been running against Mourayan and Fergus McIver this year and both are inferior to stablemates (Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras respectively) – plus he was sent over to France as a 2 year old over 10f which puts me off (does he have enough speed?) – and at 3/1 or lower is a bit short for me
Black Bear Island is very well bred (brother to High Chaparral) but again I prefer the Guineas form over the Dante
If in doubt go with the Group 1 form is the way I play it and Gan Amhras is very well bred for 12f too (by Galileo with same damsire as Black Bear Island (Darshaan))
For me Sea The Stars is unquestionably the best horse on form so far and I would take him to beat anything in the field over 10f but nagging doubts that he will get 12f – if he does I think he wins so I have to have a saver just in case
But no big bets
#304
June 1st, 2009 21:36
If anyone considering Sea The Stars for the Derby then I’ve an iticle from my racing paper which you should take into account.
Quoted from John Oxx.
His only defeat so far was on his debut when 4th behind Black Bear Island and Freemantle in a red hot maiden.After winning his maiden over 7f, he went to the Curragh and won the Group 2 Bereford from Mourayan. His progress over the winter was good and he trained well in the spring, dispite a slight niggle which put his 2,000 guineas run in jeopardy. Thankfully we got him there and he won very nicely, for a horse who I hope will be better over further given he’s a half-brother to Galileo. That said, being by Cape Cross raises questions about the mile and half of Epsom for the Derby.
Interestingly Mick (Kinane) describes him as an easier ride than Galileo. We want the ground riding fast with the obvious questions about his stamina limitations, and I have to be hoonest and say I rate him only 50-50 to stay. If there were a wet week leading up to the race and plenty of cut I would seriously consider not running him. We won’t know until the day if he stays or not, but whatever happens in the Derby he will drop back to a mile and a quarter after. He came out of his guineas win in great form and lost very little weight, which he quickly replaced. We have built him up slowly since- in fact he has only had 1 fast piece of work so far. He thriving at home and Iam delighted with him. I have no worries at all about his temperament, but it does appear to be a high quality renewal this year with Gan Amhras and all of Aidan O’Brien’s horses.It should be a very interesting race.
#305
June 1st, 2009 21:40
that should read article not “itcle” sorry for incorrect english,but i think you can assume what I meant
#306
June 1st, 2009 22:22
Half Day Harry here is the full DP,DI and CD for all 13 remaining Derby hopeful
1=Age of Aquarius DP=3,0,11,4,0 (18):DI=0.89:CD=0.11
2=Black Bear Island DP=6,1,22,9,2 (40):DI=0.82:CD=0.00
3=Crowded House DP=14,1,21,10,4 (50):DI=1.04:CD=0.22
4=Debussy DP=5,1,11,7,4 (28):DI=0.70:CD=-0.14
5=Fame and Glory DP=3,1,14,6,4 (28):DI=0.65:CD=-0.25
6=Gan Amhras DP=4,0,11,5,2 (22):DI=0.76:CD=-0.05
7=Golden Sword DP=3,0,10,4,1 (18):DI=0.80:CD=0.00
8=Kite Wood DP=7,1,9,4,3 (24):DI=1.09:CD=0.21
9=Masterofthehorse DP=6,2,24,10,4 (46):DI=0.77:CD=-0.09
10=Montaff DP=6,1,11,4,0 (22):DI=1.32:CD=0.41
11=Rip Van Winkle DP=5,0,13,4,0 (22):DI=1.10:CD=0.27
12=Sea The Stars DP=5,3,8,0,0 (16):DI=3.00:CD=0.81
13=South Easter DP=6,3,22,4,1 (36):DI=1.25:CD=0.25
#307
June 2nd, 2009 10:05
Re: Pablo’s work
“If you put a £1 on all 24 qualifying runners in the last ten years would you make a profit?”
Found the answer on Wiki.
In the last ten years you would have won 44.5pts (placing one on each selection)minus the 14pts loss (24pts – one for each selection – ten pts returned on wnnning selections)
Profit 30.5pts – not bad at all for covering every selection each year for the last ten years.
#308
June 2nd, 2009 10:26
Hi, did introduce myself on another page, but hello to everyone. Just one question, are you discounting Crowded House because of his last run? Or other reasons too? I thought his 2 year old form was excellent, maybe he needed the first run? Thoughts?
#309
June 2nd, 2009 18:08
Pablo does your system work on the Oaks and what do you fancy for that
#310
June 3rd, 2009 11:53
Hello guys,gals. Enjoyed reading, and grateful, for your Derby info.
Pablo, like you on what I’ve seen, and gut instinct, I thought Gan Amhras looked impressive in defeat in Guineas but what do you think of his win strike rate? Wouldn’t it be the lowest strike rate in 20 years? Usually, looking for something with at least 40% win strike rate?
So, Johnny Murtagh has chosen Rip Van Winkle. Will it be good to firm or even faster at Epsom and who might benefit? Thanks again.
#311
June 3rd, 2009 13:12
Neil – Oaks looks tricky to me – not great trends either
Crisp – strike rate does bother me – normally Derby winners have better strike rates
Looking at Gan Amhras – caught the eye first run, won comfortably enough second run, dropped back to 7f for €1m race (ran on well but trip too short), then placed in Guineas – on the face of it looks ok – but maybe he’s just not good enough?
But of the five that qualify using the indicators above I think he’s the best price for a bet (with saver on STS) and his trainer said the Guineas was his Derby prep
But looks a very competitive race
#312
June 4th, 2009 06:44
Thanks very much Neil for dosage profiles, great help.
#313
June 6th, 2009 14:58
Superb performance by a very good horse
#314
June 6th, 2009 15:06
Sea the stars won well from Fame and Glory with Masterofthehorse third. Golden Sword was worth a bet but caught on the line. I Thought that sea the stars would stay the distance, but I thought fame and glory would had have that turn of speed at the line. Had sea the stars on betfair and fame and glory on the place market with betfair so got lucky there. Now for Grand National.
#315
June 6th, 2009 15:15
My personal opinion of Sea The Stars is here is the next Nijinsky because I think he would have stayed the st ledger, but Oxx says it will drop now to ten furlongs so we will never know.
#316
June 6th, 2009 15:58
Great run by a great horse. At the end of the day you have to make a choice (at the prices available it was always a fun bet) from the five that Pablo gave – this time got it wrong to a worthy winner but next year I wlll do the same – not back 2000gns runners but back the best of the others in the top five in the betting.
Now back to the resaerch for the GN 2010.
Well done Pablo with your research.
#317
June 6th, 2009 19:55
Yes; well done Pablo….what a race; trainer is a gentleman; jockey is a gentleman [and one of the few people older than me, bless him] and the horse is just perfection in every way; looks, temperament, ability.
#318
June 6th, 2009 20:59
He still looked in great after the race. Shame Golden Sword didn’t hold on to a place for me. Oh well never mind.
#319
June 10th, 2009 21:35
Same here; really thought I’d got third with Golden Sword! Masterofthehorse looks worth following, though. Needed a place win to recoup quite a few losses; must remember to avoid the Derby next year as most of my horses didn’t even run!
#320
June 10th, 2009 22:24
Golden Sword could take all the beating at ten to twelve furlongs in Group two races. I believe he’s entered in a few at Royal Ascot. The winner Sea The Stars next target might be the Eclipses.
#321
June 11th, 2009 14:35
Think the Derby is extremely dodgy for antepost bets (Crowded House?) – almost every horse to win in past 21 years has shown RPR of 116+ (last 11 years 118+) as a 3-y-o going into the race
The exceptions are:
Lammtarra and Shaamit only raced at 2
Generous (Dewhurst winner at 2) and 4th in Guineas – Group 1 form at 3
Commander In Chief and High Rise – unbeaten in only 3 starts before Derby
So there are some very strong trends – albeit the shortlist was 5 this year from 12 runners!
#322
June 13th, 2009 20:22
Hi Pablo.
Been studing your system on the Derby quite effective.Some big prices selected,at first I thought that the five mentioned were the first five in the betting and I thought that you were odds on to get the winner.
I’ve learnt though that the beauty of your system is when the is not a lot of candidates in it,sure in the ten year period you had a few favourites in it,but you are looking for quailty and sometimes people latch on to these. What surprise me was some of the bigger prices (even a 20/1 which finished third in 2002)
Taking the average price of all runners in your ten year period the price would be 11/2 or just taking the average price of your winners the price would be 9/2.I think that your system is quite good,using 9/2 as a mark of value seems fair and although you would have not had Sea The Stars you would have had the 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2008 winner and many more winners to come(at value for your money.)
This is why I think this site is excellent lots of different points of view going around to learn from. Next year I be looking at your system closely.
#323
June 13th, 2009 23:50
Neil – my thoughts for next year
I think the stats say that a horse has to have good form as a 3-y-o (RPR 116+ preferably 118+ or be unbeaten or have placed in a Guineas) – normally this leaves only 2 or 3 horses – then you take a judgement and back one or two – but this year the UK challenge was pathetic and we had 5 possibilities (3 trained and owned by the same team who won most of the trials)
I hope next year we have better UK representation
Quite often the Derby is won by a horse that never wins another race – peak at the right time and get rewards – but there are so many other international prizes to be won later in the season that perhaps some trainers look to further in the season with their better middle distance prospects
The Guineas has provided in the past 4 years:
2nd Sir Percy – won Derby
5th Eagle Mountain – 2nd Derby (Authorized only qualifier on my system in this year)
2nd New Approach – won Derby
1st Sea The Stars – won Derby
At the moment the Guineas is the best trial and any horse has to put up a very good RPR to win if it hasn’t run in a Group 1 as a 3-y-o
Epsom requires a combination of speed and stamina but in an era where 10f horses rule you have to have the speed – stamina alone will only work in soft ground (unlikely in June)
#324
June 14th, 2009 00:44
To Pablo or anyone else on this site. Are the any good trends for any races at Royal Ascot like the gold cup for example.
#325
June 15th, 2009 10:08
Neil – the attheraces website contains a microsite dedicated to Royal Ascot – within that there is a Stats Guide to all 30 races which might help
#326
June 15th, 2009 12:03
Thanks Pablo will study these.
#327
June 21st, 2009 13:02
After a luckless Royal Ascot, (suppose I got carried away with the success of the Derby), I think I’ll stick to the National Hunt scene.Thanks anyway Pablo.
Don’t know if you’re montering the Grand National 2010 Early Fancies but do you know of an horse call “Surface To Air” was reading some old archives “Summer National 2008″ and Surface To Air won this race and mentioned as a possible for the 2010 Grand National by Pav.
As I’ve mentioned I’d had no interest in summer jumping so Surface To Air is an horse unknown to me.
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