Punters the length of the country will be scanning the Grand National Odds for the likely winner and they will be using a wide range methods to come up with their selection.

This blog has hopefully helped to bring together some informed opinion for the form students but it could also, hopefully, be the first port of call for a novice or fun punter looking for that first horseracing adrenalin rush that the Grand National is famous for.

Each-way thieves?

Many will like the look of an each-way bet on an outsider. But which one?

Since 2000 (apart from on one occasion) at least one horse has won or been placed at odds of 33/1 or bigger. In light of this, perhaps it would be a good idea if some of the regulars from the blog could give an idea of an outsider (33/1 or bigger please) likely to offer a good run at big price odds.

I’ll get the ball rolling with a couple at larger odds that I like the look of and hopefully we can get a shortlist of outsiders that value seekers and first time punters alike can refer to.

BACKBEAT

I remember being impressed by this horse when he finished second in a handicap at Huntingdon in October 2005, giving weight to subsequent Scottish National winner Run For Paddy. His jumping and tenacity really impressed me that day and although, as with any flamboyant jumper, there can be a risk of mistakes, when he gets it right he really is a joy to watch. A series of injuries meant it was two and half years before Backbeat was able to show his true form again when putting in another great display to see off course specialist Erics Charm at Sandown in January of this year.
I know it would be easy to pick holes in his form but at a big price he has stamina in his pedigree (out of a Deep Run mare), wins on good and good to soft ground and is an exuberant jumper who likes to be up with the pace – I think punters could get an exciting run for their money with Backbeat. He is currently available at 50/1 with Blue Square.

JOAACI

I’m a bit surprised that this horse has seemingly been overlooked but that could be due to the connections having the more obviously fanciable Comply Or Die and Over The Creek in the National but if this horse is left in I think he could surprise a few people.

He had a meteroric rise up the weights as a five year old after arriving at the Pipe yard fresh from winning a point to point in Ireland. He then rocketed up the ratings from 112 to 152 in less than a year and has spent the last couple of seasons paying for his successes.
However, he has winning form from 2006 and placed form on two separate occasions in 2007 off a mark of 143 and he is asked to race from that mark here in the National. Martin Pipe was quoted in 2006 as saying that ‘he might make a National horse one day, he is still only a baby’.
Undoubtedly, he hasn’t lived up to his initial hype and his stamina is in question as is his attitude when faced with a test such as this but given he has form at this mark (albeit at a much lower level) he looks worth including in my outsiders portfolio at 66/1 with with William Hill.

More obvious ‘outsiders’ such as Kelami, DArgent and Naunton Brook have been mentioned positively on other threads – give us the reasoning behind why we should be investing on them instead.

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Grand National Runners - Did the Irish National come too close to Aintree for these horses?

Alexander Taipan, Royal County Star, Homer Wells and Cool Running

All of the above could potentially make the cut for the Grand National but how likely are they to turn up at Aintree after running at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f just twelve days before the Grand National? How did they run at Fairyhouse? Have any of them enhanced their Aintree chances if they do make the journey?

Alexander Taipan

Suffered a horrific fall midway through the race - . (Unfortunately Alexander Taipan’s injuries were fatal  - commiserations to all concerned - Admin)

Royal County Star

The ante-post gamble of the race travelled like the winner for nearly the whole way but found very little over the last two fences. This must seriously bring into question his stamina at extreme distances, although he could improve for really good or good to firm ground. Even so, hard to see him as an Aintree National winner after this performance.

Homer Wells

Was beaten a long way from home and this was the latest in a serious of disappointing efforts. Very difficult to see how connections would want to take in Aintree on the back of such a dismal display.

Cool Running

Although he was Pulled Up, did not run that badly given he has been off the track since October and probably needed this race. Could be the horse most likely to turn up at Aintree (if he makes the cut at 10-6) and connections will be hoping for good or good to firm going.

The other Grand National entries such as Flintoff and Newbay Prop who ran here are unlikely to make the cut for the big race.

One other likely Grand National runner today when Hi Cloy finished runner-up in a 3 mile Hurdle . Connections will have been well satisfied with that but he has a mountain to climb at Aintree under his massive burden of 11 stone 12 lbs.

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Between now and the day of the big race we will try and analyse the Grand National Form chance of some of the major players in greater depth.

Comply Or Die.

I can fully understand the attractiveness of Comply Or Die for the National at some of the fancier prices that some of the shrewdies on our forum have availed themselves of but I’m not sure that 12 or 14/1 makes much appeal, even for a horse with confirmed stamina.

Stamina he undoubtedly has but there must be some question marks about the chances of him consistently repeating his positive performances over a longer trip. The facts show five attempts at 28 furlongs or further and form figures of: P, 6th, P, P, 1st

Undoubtedly there were excuses for the poor runs but inconsistency must be a worry.

Eider Chase

According the stats that I can find going back to 1989 no winner of the Eider Chase has gone on to contend the Grand National in that same season. However, eight placed horses from the Newcastle marathon have gone on to try their luck at Aintree in the same year and have finished as follows: 6th, 9th, UR, 7th, 3rd, 5th, PU, PU.

Only two of the Eider placed horses were under 20/1 when lining up in the Grand National and both got round finishing 9th and 3rd respectively. This could indicate that whilst Eider horses undoubtedly have the stamina required for the Grand National perhaps the February date of the Newcastle race does not leave enough time for horses to fully get over the exertions of a four mile race and then to head to Aintree with a winning chance?

These exertions may be particularly relevant in the case of Comply Or Die. Off for nearly two years before returning to the course in October 2007, he has had a couple of hard races since December with the defeat behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock and the victory in the Eider. I am always concerned about just how fragile a horse with a history of injury problems may be in the future? Granted, one who can win so impressively over four miles with nearly twelve stone on his back gives every indication of being 100% recovered but his ability to recover quickly from a hard race MAY be more under question.

I can also not forget that Timmy Murphy, when interviewed on tv after the Eider, commented something along the lines that ‘it did not ride like a great race’ – so perhaps whilst it was an impressive weight carrying performance there might not have been a great strength in depth to the race?

The positive angle to Comply Or Die is that he could be a much better horse than he is currently handicapped. His two narrow defeats by Trabolgan in the Sun Alliance Chase and Hennessy might suggest a horse who should have over 11 stone on his back in the National. In a novice chase in Oct 04 he received 5lb from Ollie Magern and got beat 2 and half lengths. If both turn up in the National, Comply Or Die will receive 1st 2lb from the Twiston-Davies horse. This suggests that the Pipe horse still has some scope to move up the handicap.
At 25/1 or bigger Comply Or Die looks a great addition to your Ante-Post National bets. However, for me, the value has now evaporated and he should be given the swerve, especially if the price continues to contract.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 11 Comments »

Grand National Runners: Update

Keith Reveley’s nine year old chaser, Ungaro, is unlikely to take his place in the Aintree Grand National, it was reported today.

The Robert Ogden owned former winner of the Feltham Novice Chase is thought more likely to run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown next month rather than take up his entry at Liverpool.

Reveley was reported as saying: “I haven’t had it confirmed yet, but as far as I know it is the Sandown race we are heading for.”

Ungaro is currently a best priced 40/1 with Skybet for the Grand National

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This is the second part of our look at runners in the 2008 Grand National and how they performed at the Cheltenham Festival:

Over The Creek
I’ve seen Over The Creek touted in a few places (including on this site) as a horse to consider for the National this year but I really could not go along with this way of thinking.
For me, twice in his last three runs his stamina has given out at extreme distances and I can’t see why this should be any different in the Grand National. He was swinging away on the bridle jumping the second last in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but found much less than looked likely, in the end finishing seven lengths behind Alan King’s Old Benny.
Previously, he looked to lack the stamina of the winner and runner up in the Welsh National and given the likely faster pace he will encounter in the National itself, I can’t see him being anywhere near the leading contenders at the Elbow.

Knowhere
Connections must be quite disappointed by the jumping display put up by Knowhere in the Gold Cup. They should be applauded for taking on the big boys when it might have been easier to go for the Ryanair but he made a series of mistakes and it’s very hard to get enthusiastic about his chances at Aintree on the back of such a poor round of jumping, especially when being asked to carry such a massive weight.

Joe’s Edge
Joe’s Edge was beaten a long way in tenth place in the Kim Muir but I’m not sure this tells the whole story. Nina Carberry was pretty tender on the Ferdy Murphy trained eleven year old and it may be that this was a confidence booster after unseating Keith Mercer at Doncaster the time before.
Joe’s Edge has a pretty dismal record in the National with a distant seventh place in 2006 (admittedly on ground probably too soft for him) and pulled up when co-favourite last year. It could well be that Murphy is lining this horse up for another gamble and given the stable’s record in recent years in big races, if he makes the cut, he is definitely worthy of consideration.

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The latest set of entries for the Aintree Grand National was relaeased today with a total of ten horses being withdrawn. They are:

Celestial Gold, Monkerhostin, Rule Supreme, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk, Kilbeggan Blade, Bob Bob Bobbin, Captain Corelli and Brooklyn Breeze.

With the withdrawl of Celestial Gold, Hi Cloy and Hedgehunter are now joint top weights on 11 stone 12 pounds.

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The various connections of 2008 Gold Cup winner have been suggesting (and then changing their minds) that Denman will take part in the Grand National at some stage in his career, possibly as soon as 2009.

Part owner Harry Findlay has stated he thinks the horse’s top class jumping would be a big asset in a race like the Grand National and this prompted Coral to quote Denman as short as 10/1 favourite for the 2009 National.

It looks as though the owner might now be having second thoughts and the trainer doesn’t seem too keen at this point either but it’s safe to say that the possibility of this top class horse running in the National does get the imagination whirring.

How much weight would he have to give away if he were to run? How many horses would be out of the handicap? Could he possibly win?

It would be a great sight to see but I have a feeling that Paul Nicholls might just win this argument and the Gold Cup will remain the focus of this horse’s attention.

Would you like to see Denman in the National? Give us your insight into the idea of a Gold Cup winner heading the weights and let us know if you think he could possibly pull off a famous double.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 3 Comments »

A number of Grand National candidates ran last week at the Cheltenham Festival but did any of them enhance their Aintree chances with good performances?

Ran at the Festival and The National - Cross them off?
Only one Festival winner has gone on to success in the Grand National since 1961 (Seagram 1991) but eight horses who were beaten at the Festival have gone on to be successful at Aintree since 1982 so it makes sense to have a look and see who might have been having a final prep run before their real big race target.

William Hill Trophy.
Traditionally the Cheltenham race where most National horses tune up is the William Hill Trophy and this year was no different with a whole host of National entries taking their chances.

The two that faired best were L’Ami and Patsy Hall, who finished third and fourth respectively.

L’Ami
L’Ami was backed into favouritism for the race presumably due to what now looks an attractive handicap mark. He ran well enough finishing third, getting beat in the end less than three lengths after making a mistake at the second last fence.
He runs off the same mark of 145 in the National but finished a tailed-off tenth of twelve finishers last year to Silver Birch after weakening three fences from home. His jumping started to deteriorate from Bechers second time around on that occasion indicating that his stamina is a major worry even off a mark of 9lb less this year.
However, the bookies were sufficiently impressed to halve his odds from 66/1 (now 33/1 with Betfred ) but you have to wonder how much of that is to do with the possible McManus/McCoy influence. Good horse that he is (or was?) he’s had plenty of racing for a nine year old and looks more likely to be suited by a Becher Chase than the extreme distance of the National.

Patsy Hall
Patsy Hall was the subject of the usual Tony Martin wheelbarrow of cash plunge for the William Hill Trophy and very nearly went off favourite in the end. He, too, ran well and looked the winner for most of the way only to make a mistake at the last, weakening markedly on the flat to finish nearly nine lengths back in fourth behind the winner, An Accordion.
It could be argued the Patsy Hall might have needed this race after an absence stretching back to 1st December and given the fairly dismal display of the Martin runners at the meeting his backers for the National could take some hope from this performance. Detractors might argue that this performance (and his Irish National failure in 2007) makes the horse look like a non-stayer but he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree (Saddlers Hall and a Roselier mare!) so it would suggest he would be very much suited by longer distances.
In contrast to L’Ami, most bookies left Patsy Hall unchanged at 50/1 which is a tad surprising and, especially if a Martin plunge starts, could certainly offer an opportunity to make a profitable trade at those odds.

The Rest!
Other runners in the race who could surely not be supported must be Ollie Magern (7th), Fundamentalist (8th) and Monkerhostin (PU).
The first two named would have trouble staying four miles sitting on a bus and Monkerhostin’s performance in the National last year and shocking effort in this make him a cert no play.
The only other runner who could possibly be considered is Mon Mome who ran a funny race in finishing 6th. Outpaced at the mid-point off the race he stayed on strongly when all too late to finish 22 lengths adrift.
A former Welsh National and Tote Classic runner up he would make some sort of appeal over the longer trip of the National but it is now two years since he last got his head in front and he is still being asked to race in the National at a rating 11lb in advance of that last winning mark. His price remained unchanged after this race and he would not be making my shortlist.

More from the Cheltenham Festival later in the week – let us know who you think enhanced (or not!) their chances for the National at Cheltenham.

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Silver Birch - The start of a trend?

The victory of Silver Birch in last year’s Grand National inevitably makes form students go back through his form for ‘clues’ to see if the 2008 winner might take the same sort of path. It has been suggested in some quarters that Cross Country races could become good prep races for the National but is that really the case?

The race that stands out for many in Silver Birch’s form is his appearance in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham just four weeks before his famous victory at Aintree. Usually runners at the Cheltenham Festival do not fair that well in the National so perhaps it is the unusualness of the Cross Country course which prepared Silver Birch well for his victory?

Previous Cross Country Form

I decided to analyse previous placed runners in all cross country races at Cheltenham and see if their performance at Aintree AFTER being placed in a Cross Country race improved their form sufficiently to make them noteworthy for the National.

The following horses ran in the National AFTER being placed in a Cross Country race at Cheltenham. (No breakdown is made of the time lapse between the races, the listing is merely to see if placing in the first race may or may not have had a positive effect on their form, jumping, attitude etc.)

Cheltenham X Country      Placing + Horse       G National Fin Pos

12/11/99                        3rd Lucky Town            08/04/00 8th (20/1)

10/11/00                       1st Supreme Charm       07/04/01 UR (33/1)

10/11/00                      1st Supreme Charm       06/04/02 5th (28/1)

12/11/04                      1st Spot thedifference    09/04/05 18th (25/1)

13/03/07                     2nd Silver Birch              14/04/07 1st (33/1)

13/03/07                     3rd Le Duc                      14/04/07 UR (66/1)

Cross Country to Aintree - Why so few?

So, the most surprising thing is that from the eighteen Cheltenham Cross Country races prior to the 2007 National on only six occasions had a placed horse from a Cheltenham Cross Country race taken part at Aintree. Also, quite surprising is that, Silver Birch aside, the ones who have taken part have a pretty poor record.
All of the other Cross Country runners to take part in Grand Nationals were fairly well fancied with Supreme Charm doing the best of the others when a distant 5th to Bindaree in 2002.
This may suggest that other factors were at work in Silver Birch’s victory such as his undoubted stamina rather than the change of focus with the Cross Country races.

Unlikely to throw up too many National winners?

The quality of the runners in Cross Country races may improve over the next few seasons and in that case it may be that the National becomes a target for more of its placed horses. But if it continues to be a Enda Bolger benevolent fund then I think its fairly safe to look elsewhere for our National clues.

So tread carefully of the Royal Auclair’s, Wonderkid’s and whatever places in the BGC at Cheltenham this week as the chances of them repeating Silver Birch’s Aintree heroics look pretty slim.

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Favourite Picture Not So Cloudy

Cloudy Lane is as short 6/1 to win the Aintree Grand National following his third consecutive win of the season, this time in the highly valuable Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster.

Donald McCain’s young chaser had earlier recorded good victories at Haydock and Ayr as well as the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007.

6/1? No Thanks

However, 6/1 looks a very short price now especially as his stamina seemed to give out before he fell in last season’s Irish Grand National. That may well have been due to the effects of a hard season and he is a very interesting runner at Aintree but his stamina is not cast in stone so single figure odds could surely not be contemplated.

Mr Pointment’s participation in some doubt?

Disappointnment of the race was 6/4 favourite Mr Pointment who weakened quickly from the fifth last fence. He was later reported as having finished distressed and had broken a blood vessel. 

His supporters for the Aintree race now face an anxious wait to see if he recovers in time to take his place. 

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