Do you know who will win the 2009 Grand National?

Following a suggestion on one of the threads on this blog, we would like to let everyone know that we will be running a £100 tipster competition for the 2009 Grand National. Full details will follow next week but it will involve registering your selections for the race at various stages throughout the year – possibly in May, December, February and just before the race.
Complete details of entries requirements, dates and prizes will be available on this site in the near future so keep checking back for information on how to register.

We Never Close!

I plan to be posting throughout the year on all topics Grand National related and it would be great it if as many of the users would stick around as possible as we really appreciate your thoughts and contributions.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 7 Comments »

Get the videos ready: not only is The Topham a great race to have a bet in it is a valuable tool for assessing the likely chances of future Grand National winners. Three National winners in the last ten years alone have gone on from a run in The Topham to winning a National (Bindaree, Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House) so this race will be necessary viewing for those of us thinking past just the 2008 Grand National.

The field is littered with horses suggested as National possibles, including those who may have run in the big race but for failing to make the cut. Horses such as:

In The High Grass
You’re Special
Irish Raptor
Bothar Na
Pak Jak
Dunbrody Millar
Theatre Knight
I Hear Thunder

But who will win The Topham?

The Topham tends to fall to horses at the lower end of the handicap and this race has apparently been the target all season of Willie Mullins’ Bothar Na. He has had two spins round the fences before and the trainer has won the race before in 2002 with It’s Time For A Win.

Other horses who may appeal at bigger odds are former Sefton Chase winner I Hear Thunder and the Ferdy Murphy trained You’re Special. The latter would be a little older than some recent winners but had been talked of as a National ‘type’ for some time and it will be interesting to see how he gets on over these fences.

Your thoughts?

Who do you fancy? Are there any of the field who you think could potentially come back for next year’s National? Come back on after the race as well and let us know what you thought of the race and if there were any clues to take away for future Nationals.

Posted in Aintree 2008 | 2 Comments »

Aintree 2008 got off to a great start with a superb days racing with some impressive performances and a really close finish to the highlight of the day, the Bowl Chase.

Novice Hurdlers Elusive Dream and Binocular recorded quality victories in their respective races with the latter gaining quotes as low as 7/1 for the 2009 Champion Hurdle after the race. Both look hurdlers to follow.

In the opener Blazing Bailey responded to blinkers for the first time and a strong ride from Robert Thornton to see off Faasel and the decidedly uncomfortable looking World Hurdle Champ, Inglis Drever.

Howard Johnson was quoted after the race as saying that this would be the last time that Inglis Drever would run at Aintree.

The race over the big National fences produced one of the best riding performances I have seen for a long time from an Amateur Rider. The winner of the race, Christy Beamish, made a terrible mistake at Bechers and all but fell when seemingly travelling well. Rider Josh Guerriero made a great recovery but almost as impressive was the fact that he refused to panic and gave his mount plenty of time to work back into the race. He came back to take control two fences from home and stayed on resolutely to see off double Aintree Foxhunters Champion Katarino for a nine length success.

Guerriero is attached to the Philip Hobbs yard and looks a very promising addition to that stables great record with young jockeys.

The race of the day though was the Bowl Chase where the impetus of the race rocked from Our Vic to Kauto Star and finally back again with the Pond House horse putting up the performance of his career to come back on the run in to head the former Gold Cup winner on the line for a ‘nose’ victory.

So, first day plaudits from this viewer go to Josh Guerriero and also to Our Vic. But who will be the heroes of Day Two?

Posted in Aintree 2008 | 3 Comments »

The time has nearly come to stop studying and sit back and watch the great race. But who are your Grand National Tips for 2008?

We’ve had dozens of selections on various other threads but lets bring them all together here on one page for easy reference. Let us all know who you have backed and a short reason as to why you have parted with your cash on these particular individuals.

No doubt D’Argent, Comply Or Die, Cloudy Lane and Point Barrow will be popular but are there any others that have taken your fancy?

I’ll get the ball rolling with where the admin 10p each way’s have gone:

Point Barrow

My main selection and has been for some time and (as outlined elsewhere) confidence is dwindling after his last couple of runs. Nevertheless, I’m hopeful that he will perform better than last year!

Joes Edge

This is a recent selection based on a feeling that the ground might get quite quick and that there have been excuses for his two poor performances in 06 and 07. I was attracted by a biggish price on the exchanges and the fact that I can’t fancy any of the of the main market hopefuls at the available prices. Also, Ferdy Murphy is becoming something of a genius with his big race chasers and I want him in the plus column in these races rather than the other way round.

Due to the rather annoying non-attendance of Joe’s Edge the Admin second best will now be Mon Mome. I know he is French bred etc but I don’t buy into this theory that French breds don’t stay so as he has decent form from the Welsh National and the stable is also in flying form then I think he has plenty going for him at under 11 stone. The young jockey is a slight worry but Tom O’Brien nearly won last year on his first ride in the National so it should be possible.

Backbeat, Joaaci, Baily Breeze

I like to have a few each-ways on big price outsiders that will cover the main bets if they squeak a place. I think these three have the potential to run well at big odds and if any of them win I doubt there will be much in the way of after race analysis from me! (only joking Boss!).

Backbeat jumps well and could love the experience, Joaaci has been mentioned as a National horse for a couple of years, although he could still be a bit young and Baily Breeze is a horse I’ve liked for ages and could have reserves of stamina not yet shown on the racecourse.

Good luck to all those having a bet but please let us all know what you are backing so we can congratulate and commiserate on here late on Saturday afternoon.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 32 Comments »

As we enter the final week of betting on the great race one thing punters must be aware of is the Grand National Odds.

Look for the value and don’t take SP on the day!

The five day declarations will be available on the 31st March and from that point onwards the odds of fancied runners will start reducing dramitically.So whilst there is a danger in taking prices now (see the painful stories re Royal Auclair on other threads) there are a number of bookies offering non-runner no bet at this stage and most runners have been confirmed as likely or doubtful by their connections.

Perhaps it is a risk but horses such as D’Argent, Patsy Hall and L’Ami all potentially could receive a lot of support between now and next Saturday and it certainly won’t pay in leaving backing your selection until the day. Shop around with some of the major firms and make sure you get the value and not the shortened starting price.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 2 Comments »

Whilst most of us on this blog have been pouring over the Grand National form the Aintree 2008 Festival isn’t just about one race. The entries for Thursday and Friday are out now and there is the prospect of some crackerjack races next week. Here are just a few of the Cheltenham Festival winners and other top class horses that are entered:

Inglis Drever, Kauto Star, Monets Garden, Exotic Dancer, Celestial Halo, Albertas Run, Tidal Bay, Nenuphar Collonges, Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, Our Vic, Captain Cee Bee

Particularly interesting will be the return of Kauto Star who holds entries in the Totesport Bowl and the Melling Chase.

The Totesport Bowl would see him potentially matched against old foes Exotic Dancer and Monets Garden (also entered in both races). Also amongst that race’s entries are Our Vic, Aces Four, Gungadu and Turko.

The Melling Chase on the Friday also looks mouth-watering. Along with the doubly entered Kauto Star, Monets Garden and Our Vic we have Champion Chase winner Master Minded, former Champion Chaser Voy Por Ustedes and Arkle Chase winner Tidal Bay. If we end up with 50% of that field it will be a sight to see.

Who are you particularly looking forward to seeing in the supporting races at Aintree? Is there one horse who you have been waiting to back at this meeting?

A horse I think will win soon is Boychuk from the Philip Hobbs yard. I note he is entered in a handicap at Aintree and I will be having a look at the race closer to the time. He ran an eye-catching race at Cheltenham but perhaps a tough jumping track like Aintree might not be the best place for him to exploit what looks like is becoming a decent handicap mark. I think he might register a win before the end of the season.

Let us know if there is one horse you will be backing over the three day Aintree Festival.

Posted in Aintree 2008 | 4 Comments »

Grand National 2008 

It was reported today by Clerk Of The Course, Andrew Tulloch, that going on both courses at Aintree was now ‘on the easy side of good’.

More rain is expected on Friday and Saturday but Tulloch was reportedly very happy with the state of the course.

Are we looking at the possibility of a soft ground Grand National? How would this affect your selections? Will you be praying for more rain or hoping the sun comes out?

Are there any budding Michael Fish’s out there who can give us an insight into what to expect in the next week or so?

Let’s us have all your Grand National ground and weather related comments on this page please.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 3 Comments »

Earlier in the week we looked at the Grand National Form of Comply Or Die. Today it is the turn of former Irish National winner, Point Barrow.

Point Barrow

Firstly, I must state a bias here. I have backed Point Barrow but I’m very worried about my bet.
I like to try and be open minded about horses who have yet to prove their stamina but feel much happier about parting with cash when the horse in question has proved they can stay at least 3½ miles and preferably further. So, Point Barrow seemed ideal.
I also particularly like the Irish National as a trial for the Aintree version. Wins for Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde as well as a big run from the 2001 Irish National winner David’s Lad in Bindaree’s year and of course Papillon also finished runner up to Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse in 1998. So, it appears that Fairyhouse’s stamina based test, aligned to its very stiff fences, make it a great prep race for Aintree itself.
Consequently, Point Barrow looked taylor-made to me when winning the Irish race in 2006. A win in the Pierse Chase in early 2007 further increased my confidence but we all know that things haven’t quite worked out since then.
I was prepared to forgive the first fence fall in last year’s National as just over exuberance and decided to back him again for this year’s big race after a very encouraging run at Gowran Park in January 08. The comment in the Racing Post the next day ‘kept on without threatening’ and this was just the kind of thing I wanted to see. It appeared that a softly softly approach was being taken. Excellent.
However, the next two runs have worried me enormously. It can be argued that the season is being geared completely to Aintree so the outcome of prep races could be misleading but the way he went from cruising to struggling at Haydock was, for me, very worrying. Also, the suggestion that he gurgled after Down Royal brings into question if he may have a slight wind problem? If that is the case it has to be very doubtful he will win a Grand National.

Topspeed and Blinkers

I’m less concerned about some of the other potential negatives brought up on other threads such as the low Topspeed figure and blinkers situation.
Topspeed is a good indication of class but this horse is an Irish National and Pierse Chase winner so I wouldn’t have thought there would be too many worries on that score. Blinkers? Yes, could be a concern as there does seem a smaller percentage of National winners than in normal races with headgear but I’m not sure it would be a strong enough argument for me NOT to back something I fancy. If I believe something is the most likely winner I’m not going to not back it because of a trend, much as I like using them. Form analysis first, trends as a back up – not the other way round? Otherwise horses like Katchit, Captain Cee Bee, Inglis Drever, Albertas Run etc etc would never have won at Cheltenham? Obviously I didn’t back all of those but I did fancy Katchit and everyone kept telling me a five year old wasn’t going to win a Champion Hurdle – it would have hurt me a lot more not to have backed my judgement and watched it win than back a loser. Something to debate on another thread maybe??!!

A much bigger concern for me than the blinkers issue with Point Barrow is if he is 100% likely to give his true running at Aintree. If he does then I think he is the one to beat but if there is any question mark about his breathing then I doubt he will be involved in the finish.

Are you a Point Barrow fan? Any fancy prices been availed of Pat Hughes’ chaser? Anyone read anything I might have missed about the horse’s breathing?

Give us your thoughts on this thread on all things Point Barrow related.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 8 Comments »

Punters the length of the country will be scanning the Grand National Odds for the likely winner and they will be using a wide range methods to come up with their selection.

This blog has hopefully helped to bring together some informed opinion for the form students but it could also, hopefully, be the first port of call for a novice or fun punter looking for that first horseracing adrenalin rush that the Grand National is famous for.

Each-way thieves?

Many will like the look of an each-way bet on an outsider. But which one?

Since 2000 (apart from on one occasion) at least one horse has won or been placed at odds of 33/1 or bigger. In light of this, perhaps it would be a good idea if some of the regulars from the blog could give an idea of an outsider (33/1 or bigger please) likely to offer a good run at big price odds.

I’ll get the ball rolling with a couple at larger odds that I like the look of and hopefully we can get a shortlist of outsiders that value seekers and first time punters alike can refer to.

BACKBEAT

I remember being impressed by this horse when he finished second in a handicap at Huntingdon in October 2005, giving weight to subsequent Scottish National winner Run For Paddy. His jumping and tenacity really impressed me that day and although, as with any flamboyant jumper, there can be a risk of mistakes, when he gets it right he really is a joy to watch. A series of injuries meant it was two and half years before Backbeat was able to show his true form again when putting in another great display to see off course specialist Erics Charm at Sandown in January of this year.
I know it would be easy to pick holes in his form but at a big price he has stamina in his pedigree (out of a Deep Run mare), wins on good and good to soft ground and is an exuberant jumper who likes to be up with the pace – I think punters could get an exciting run for their money with Backbeat. He is currently available at 50/1 with Blue Square.

JOAACI

I’m a bit surprised that this horse has seemingly been overlooked but that could be due to the connections having the more obviously fanciable Comply Or Die and Over The Creek in the National but if this horse is left in I think he could surprise a few people.

He had a meteroric rise up the weights as a five year old after arriving at the Pipe yard fresh from winning a point to point in Ireland. He then rocketed up the ratings from 112 to 152 in less than a year and has spent the last couple of seasons paying for his successes.
However, he has winning form from 2006 and placed form on two separate occasions in 2007 off a mark of 143 and he is asked to race from that mark here in the National. Martin Pipe was quoted in 2006 as saying that ‘he might make a National horse one day, he is still only a baby’.
Undoubtedly, he hasn’t lived up to his initial hype and his stamina is in question as is his attitude when faced with a test such as this but given he has form at this mark (albeit at a much lower level) he looks worth including in my outsiders portfolio at 66/1 with with William Hill.

More obvious ‘outsiders’ such as Kelami, DArgent and Naunton Brook have been mentioned positively on other threads – give us the reasoning behind why we should be investing on them instead.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 30 Comments »

Grand National Runners - Did the Irish National come too close to Aintree for these horses?

Alexander Taipan, Royal County Star, Homer Wells and Cool Running

All of the above could potentially make the cut for the Grand National but how likely are they to turn up at Aintree after running at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f just twelve days before the Grand National? How did they run at Fairyhouse? Have any of them enhanced their Aintree chances if they do make the journey?

Alexander Taipan

Suffered a horrific fall midway through the race - . (Unfortunately Alexander Taipan’s injuries were fatal  - commiserations to all concerned - Admin)

Royal County Star

The ante-post gamble of the race travelled like the winner for nearly the whole way but found very little over the last two fences. This must seriously bring into question his stamina at extreme distances, although he could improve for really good or good to firm ground. Even so, hard to see him as an Aintree National winner after this performance.

Homer Wells

Was beaten a long way from home and this was the latest in a serious of disappointing efforts. Very difficult to see how connections would want to take in Aintree on the back of such a dismal display.

Cool Running

Although he was Pulled Up, did not run that badly given he has been off the track since October and probably needed this race. Could be the horse most likely to turn up at Aintree (if he makes the cut at 10-6) and connections will be hoping for good or good to firm going.

The other Grand National entries such as Flintoff and Newbay Prop who ran here are unlikely to make the cut for the big race.

One other likely Grand National runner today when Hi Cloy finished runner-up in a 3 mile Hurdle . Connections will have been well satisfied with that but he has a mountain to climb at Aintree under his massive burden of 11 stone 12 lbs.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 1 Comment »