Comments on: Grand National Runners 2010: Notre Pere

By: Neil

Neil — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:28:22 +0000

Notre Pere had a good chance to win todays contest. No value though. The going was soft so might have effected the others. CJ jumping too needs to impove as he jumped across a few fences. WOA I don’t think is the force he was but still looked like taking a hand in the finish. National still months away and things can change.

By: Grand National Blog » Blog Archive » Grand National Hopefuls Start 2010 Campaign

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:08:00 +0000

[...] Notre Pere [...]

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:42:38 +0000

Notre Pere’s stats;
9 yr old, next April, +
OR 163, -
9 or more chases, +
won 1 of his last 10 chases, +
top 3 C1 chase, +
won at 30f, +
RPR 144 or more, +
left handed RPR 141 or more, +
17k C1,C2 win, +
47% or more place strike rate in chases, +
(research has shown that 19/19 GN winners have a place strike of at least 47% in chases 1 year before winning)
3 chase wins, +
top 5 Hennessey, top 3 in a National etc, +

How high will is rating be next Spring? If he’s the highest rated horse in 2010 GN would the handicapper give him an incentive to run? If he gets his soft ground could be a weight-stat buster.

By: Pablo

Pablo — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:16:01 +0000

Twiston Davies’ two GN winners are Earth Summit (won Scottish, Welsh and top 5 in Hennessy) and Bindaree (placed in Welsh, top 5 Hennessy and 4th in Topham) – Irish Raptor hasn’t been campaigned in the very top stayers’ races but has run 5 times over Aintree fences and won well last time – surely a concern that trainer hasn’t run him over further against top company – Hello Bud a better prospect for NTD I think – he’s only had him for 6 runs and won the Scottish National

By: ryme no reason

ryme no reason — Sun, 03 May 2009 11:36:36 +0000

totally agree maureen about stamina doubts with irish raptor.
the ones on very early shortlist for me are;

southern vic
(needs going with abit of give)but ran well without those conditions 2009

big fella thanks
will be a year older and ran a very credable race 2009.

black appalachi
going very well and looked made for the job before falling

character building
hope he gets there this time and would be one for most shortlists.

flintoff
one i am watching very closely after his run in midlands g.n.

By: maureen

maureen — Sat, 02 May 2009 15:09:08 +0000

I think there are big stamina doubts about Irish Raptor.

By: bobby jo

bobby jo — Sat, 02 May 2009 13:37:04 +0000

I fancy Black Apalachi or Irish Rapture for next years national this is mainly based on gut feeling, watched this years race again and Black Apalachi as the ability to win just needs to stay upright feel 3rd time lucky for this horse. Reason for post is can anyone explain why odds are falling on irish rapture so early on nearly across the board 25s exept for ladbrooks.

By: Neil

Neil — Fri, 01 May 2009 21:20:24 +0000

Pablo,do you think that if the gold cup and grand national was run on going similar to Punchestown that he’ll have a chance to emulate Golden Miller,like Denman was said to be trying last year,or is it one or the other?

By: Pablo

Pablo — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:02:44 +0000

“If I have my way, he won’t run at Aintree as he will only be eight. He is a real good old-fashioned horse, but not very quick. Anything that does a bit of work behind him is either lame or dead. The bottom line, as my father used to say, is they win in spite of us, not because of us – J Dreaper, trainer”

Comments after Welsh National victory

Clearly key to the horse is the ground – although he did very well to get 3rd in Irish National as 7yo on drier ground than he prefers

He has improved by 2 stone since then

On soft or heavy I think he’d have a very good chance against anything in any staying race

It wouldn’t surprise me if they entered him next year – if the rains come he’d have to have a chance – if not he’ll go somewhere else

By: Neil

Neil — Fri, 01 May 2009 18:28:33 +0000

Didn’t see the race but I believed Notre Pere won easy.
The going was a bog (soft to heavy) my racing paper described it as.
So obviously after being pulled out of the Scottish National and Bet 365 for going being too firm it was a result you could predict.
Under similar conditions I think Notre Pere will beat anyone,(Kauto Star or Denman at his best.)
Wether he can plough though four and a half miles with top weight or near top weight in silimar going I don’t know.I don’t even think he’ll be risked.