Grand National Runners 2010: Notre Pere

Notre Pere has been promoted to favourite or joint favourite at this very early ante-post stage by a number of bookmakers following his authoriative performance yesterday in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup where he he had a very easy victory considering this was a Grade One race.

Cynics may argue that conditions suited him the best and that his opponents underperformed but the Welsh National winner is proving very peogressive and could be considered a real live Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate if there was ever really soft ground at the Festival.

But what of the Grand National? Rated 163 BEFORE the Punchestown race he must surely go up to 170 or even higher after that performance and a guarantee of the maximum top weight in the National (if he were to run) and the prospect of giving lumps of weight to decent horses.

I personally can’t see him running in the National due to a combination of the likely weight and that he his highly unlikely to have his ground. Also, I would think connections will find it hard to resist going for the Gold Cup and that would make Aintree even less likely.

Do you agree or do you think that Notre Pere will run and would be up to giving the weight away?

Notre Pere is, at the time of writing, 25/1 with Stan James.

*NB The profiles seem to be getting a fair bit of interest so I will be putting more up over the next few weeks – let me know if there is a particular horse that you have strong views on and you would like to see a thread for.

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12 Responses to Grand National Runners 2010: Notre Pere

  1. Daniel Edwards says:

    For me, he is an out and out stayer, nothing else, and I cant therefore see him winning the Gold Cup.

    And surely he wont run in the national off 170, unless of course Denman runs…..

  2. maureen says:

    I can’t see connections running him in the National, ever; all the top Irish races for him over the next few years although possibly the Hennessy or Welsh National if the ground is soft.

  3. Neil says:

    Didn’t see the race but I believed Notre Pere won easy.
    The going was a bog (soft to heavy) my racing paper described it as.
    So obviously after being pulled out of the Scottish National and Bet 365 for going being too firm it was a result you could predict.
    Under similar conditions I think Notre Pere will beat anyone,(Kauto Star or Denman at his best.)
    Wether he can plough though four and a half miles with top weight or near top weight in silimar going I don’t know.I don’t even think he’ll be risked.

  4. Pablo says:

    “If I have my way, he won’t run at Aintree as he will only be eight. He is a real good old-fashioned horse, but not very quick. Anything that does a bit of work behind him is either lame or dead. The bottom line, as my father used to say, is they win in spite of us, not because of us – J Dreaper, trainer”

    Comments after Welsh National victory

    Clearly key to the horse is the ground – although he did very well to get 3rd in Irish National as 7yo on drier ground than he prefers

    He has improved by 2 stone since then

    On soft or heavy I think he’d have a very good chance against anything in any staying race

    It wouldn’t surprise me if they entered him next year – if the rains come he’d have to have a chance – if not he’ll go somewhere else

  5. Neil says:

    Pablo,do you think that if the gold cup and grand national was run on going similar to Punchestown that he’ll have a chance to emulate Golden Miller,like Denman was said to be trying last year,or is it one or the other?

  6. bobby jo says:

    I fancy Black Apalachi or Irish Rapture for next years national this is mainly based on gut feeling, watched this years race again and Black Apalachi as the ability to win just needs to stay upright feel 3rd time lucky for this horse. Reason for post is can anyone explain why odds are falling on irish rapture so early on nearly across the board 25s exept for ladbrooks.

  7. maureen says:

    I think there are big stamina doubts about Irish Raptor.

  8. ryme no reason says:

    totally agree maureen about stamina doubts with irish raptor.
    the ones on very early shortlist for me are;

    southern vic
    (needs going with abit of give)but ran well without those conditions 2009

    big fella thanks
    will be a year older and ran a very credable race 2009.

    black appalachi
    going very well and looked made for the job before falling

    character building
    hope he gets there this time and would be one for most shortlists.

    flintoff
    one i am watching very closely after his run in midlands g.n.

  9. Pablo says:

    Twiston Davies’ two GN winners are Earth Summit (won Scottish, Welsh and top 5 in Hennessy) and Bindaree (placed in Welsh, top 5 Hennessy and 4th in Topham) – Irish Raptor hasn’t been campaigned in the very top stayers’ races but has run 5 times over Aintree fences and won well last time – surely a concern that trainer hasn’t run him over further against top company – Hello Bud a better prospect for NTD I think – he’s only had him for 6 runs and won the Scottish National

  10. crisp 73 says:

    Notre Pere’s stats;
    9 yr old, next April, +
    OR 163, -
    9 or more chases, +
    won 1 of his last 10 chases, +
    top 3 C1 chase, +
    won at 30f, +
    RPR 144 or more, +
    left handed RPR 141 or more, +
    17k C1,C2 win, +
    47% or more place strike rate in chases, +
    (research has shown that 19/19 GN winners have a place strike of at least 47% in chases 1 year before winning)
    3 chase wins, +
    top 5 Hennessey, top 3 in a National etc, +

    How high will is rating be next Spring? If he’s the highest rated horse in 2010 GN would the handicapper give him an incentive to run? If he gets his soft ground could be a weight-stat buster.

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  12. Neil says:

    Notre Pere had a good chance to win todays contest. No value though. The going was soft so might have effected the others. CJ jumping too needs to impove as he jumped across a few fences. WOA I don’t think is the force he was but still looked like taking a hand in the finish. National still months away and things can change.