Notre Pere has been promoted to favourite or joint favourite at this very early ante-post stage by a number of bookmakers following his authoriative performance yesterday in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup where he he had a very easy victory considering this was a Grade One race.
Cynics may argue that conditions suited him the best and that his opponents underperformed but the Welsh National winner is proving very peogressive and could be considered a real live Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate if there was ever really soft ground at the Festival.
But what of the Grand National? Rated 163 BEFORE the Punchestown race he must surely go up to 170 or even higher after that performance and a guarantee of the maximum top weight in the National (if he were to run) and the prospect of giving lumps of weight to decent horses.
I personally can’t see him running in the National due to a combination of the likely weight and that he his highly unlikely to have his ground. Also, I would think connections will find it hard to resist going for the Gold Cup and that would make Aintree even less likely.
Do you agree or do you think that Notre Pere will run and would be up to giving the weight away?
Notre Pere is, at the time of writing, 25/1 with Stan James.
*NB The profiles seem to be getting a fair bit of interest so I will be putting more up over the next few weeks – let me know if there is a particular horse that you have strong views on and you would like to see a thread for.