Grand National Runners 2010: Niche Market
December 27th, 2009Please add all your news and views on the chances of Niche Market in the 2010 Grand National on this page.
The Irish National winner has now also run a stormer in the Hennessy - does that make him one of the top choices for the Grand National 2010
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It’s early days but if Niche Market does go to Aintree I think he will be weighted out of it.
My take on Niche Market’s vital stats;
9 yr old, next April, +
OR 136, + (but handicapper penalised previous Irish Nat winner Hear The Echo 8lbs for National)
9 or more chases, +
won 1 of his last 10 chases, +
top 3 C1 chase, +
won at 29f, +
RPR 144 or more, +
left handed RPR 141 or more, -
17k C1,C2 win, +
40% 1st,2nd,3rd strike rate in chase, -
3 chase wins, -
winner profile,top 5 Hennessey etc, +
Has won in a big field, TS 128, but even at this stage 3 negatives unusual(based on previous winners)
It has been pointed out to me that horses with Presenting in their pedigree do not stay over 4 miles. One Cool Cookie is still the one that I’m taking forward to next year.
Last two Irish Grand National winners have had the expectation to do well at Liverpool.I think that Phil Smith knows this and will lump loads of weight. The second two might be too old,although not from a Stats point of view.The fourth could be the one to keep an eye on (Rare Bob).Although the national (liverpool is one year away app.)
crisp 73 love your work, so informative, lets keep it going by us all the way to the winning post in 2010 GN!
If 2009 is anything to go by the Handicapper will give Nich Market a big penalty for winning the IN and that may well blow his chances. Still I’am excluding nothing at this stage but still those 3 negaitves even at this satge makes you think.
i do fancy one cool cookies chances but he doesn’t fit the stats at the mo, he’d have to have a top 5 in the hennessy or a place in the welsh nat for me to seriously consider
I agree with others in that Phil Smith and his merry band of cowboys will hand Niche Market a huge weight next year. Also his best form is on right-handed tracks, and I would want to see him perform to a higher level left-handed than he has done thus far before I could consider backing him.
Taking into account that Mon mome was the first french bred horse to win the national since 1908 and the 3rd,5th and 7th were also french bred,i think we can safely turf that statistic out of the window.
French breds had placed on a number of occasions in recent years,so it was only a matter of time before one won again.
Something punters might want to note,is the fact that Kauto Star is also french bred,and it appears a number of top owners are buying this type of horse now due to their abundance of stamina.
The only real way to assess possible National winners is to watch videos of prospective candidates on either A.T.R or the racing post site.
I say this because although not reported in detail on the racing post comments for the 2008 running,by all accounts Mon Mome was still travelling well when badly hampered in that race,something obviously a lot of us missed out on,and we all know how inportant course form can be.
So lesson learnt,we can go into next years race armed with a deal more knowledge than we had before.
The fact that Mon Mome was only the second horse to carry 11 stone or more in recent times,just goes to show us how well these french bred horses stay extreme distances.
In fact they stay and jump so well,i think we are coming to an era where all other breeds can almost be discounted for these big staying chases.
At this point,i think i’ll mention Master Minded,yes,french bred.
Its actually making life considerably easier for old Joe punter,because these horses seem to be on a different planet.
Enough said for now,i’ll post again in the coming months,and maybe we’ll have a 500/1 winner on the exchanges for next years race.
i guess we need to find out more about the pedigree of these French horses; remember Vulgan was French and look at the influence he had for many years, and wasn’t Roselier French but stood in Ireland? Mon Mome [perhaps because he's quite a small horse] seems to run badly if suffering interference from another horse in a race; didn’t it happen in both last years National and this seasons Welsh? In the Midlands he just had a lot of weight and probably didn’t run as badly as it first looked. I tended to think that the Midlands National was just too close to the National, but he obviously wasn’t given a hard race.
[...] Niche Market Bookmark to: [...]
Niche Market first run of season. Needs to improve on that. Looking at his Dosage he looks perfect for national unlike the last two irish national winners. Got a gut feeling with this one, but I’ve also got a feeling the Henessy which hasn’t produced the winner in ages will prove the key race this year.
He quickly become my number one choice for next year national.#
He can handle large fields, an experience, his OR is 145 (forced to race off 148 in the Hennessy because of Denman), even his dosage fits the stats. He also has two major Grand National tials under his belt and in mine opinion come out with flying colours.
What they want to do now is run him over hurdles to keep him fit and try and protect his mark. If the weight is a nice weight too I definity backing this one.
I agree with that Neil. I did back him for the Irish National at 33s but it was a bit of a shock win and his run at Wincanton wasn’t great. However, on Saturday he confirmed that the Irish National win was certainly no fluke and to finish third behind a monster and a well-handicapped 2nd season chaser was a great run. Very importantly he’s shown that he can run to a high level on a left-handed track as before Saturday his best runs had all been going the other way.