Grand National Runners 2010: Hello Bud
A remarkable success story, Hello Bud has registered seven successes over fences in a little over fifteen months and this has seen the eleven year old gelding rise sixty pounds in the official ratings and culminated in a victory in a Scottish National.
The first three victories in 2008 were recorded under the care of David Wintle but the horse was transferred to Nigel Twiston-Davies for the 08/09 season and the Gloucestershire trainer managed to squeeze a further four victories from the son of Jurado and wasn’t afraid to travel to do so – recording victories at Kelso, Fontwell, Wincanton and finally that famous win at Ayr.
The victory in the Scottish National was the third win in the race for the yard after the wins in 1992 for Captain Dibble and 1994 for Earth Summit who famously went on to win at Aintree in 1998. The question for readers of our forum is can Hello Bud match his famous stablemate and go on and do the same double? Obviously given Hello Bud’s age (11 rising 12) he doesn’t have four years like Earth Summit to work up to it and if he is going to win the Grand National 2010 would look to be his best chance. He obviously has stamina in abundance and will probably be the first horse to be going into the race for some time with 3 wins at around 4 miles (31f at Hereford, 32f at Hexham and 33f at Ayr)
I did note that the last two of Hello Bud’s wins were achieved with the aid of a tongue tie and whilst that obviously helped any slight concerns the stable had about his breathing I always wonder if problems in that area have a tendency to get worse? It could be that Twiston-Davies managed to farm a rich vein of form from this horse and he may struggle to reproduce that form now that he finds himself so much further up the handicap?
What do our readers think? Is Hello Bud a horse you will be watching closely for the 2010 Grand National or do you think the 08/09 season was the pinnacle of his achievements?






This post has 67 comments
#1
August 1st, 2009 18:52
Although I found Hello Bud in the Scottish National I went off him just as quick. The horse I was really keen on at the time was Chief Dan George although when I found Hello Bud he was 25/1 which if it was available when I placed my bet on I would have taken, he went off at 12/1 (big difference.)
I know that Earth Summit won the Scottish national first before winning Aintree’s National, but he also won the Welsh National too and that’s is the key factor for me.
I don’t think any horse as won the Scottish National first then the following season went on to glory at Aintree, and only one has done both the other way round in the same season (RED RUM).
Let look at whats in Hello Bud’s favour. It’s very likely he’ll stay the distance, age 12 when Aintree comes around, actually he’ll be 11 (foaled april 24 1998). An experience Chaser. His trainer knowns what it takes to win a national. Official Rating of 133 he’s around a handy mark, so if connections wish to go for Aintree the plenty of time to improve his OR.
#2
August 1st, 2009 21:32
Twister didnt seem keen on him being in the grand national after he won the scots – he just said watch out for Irish Raptor. I’d like to see IR prove his stamina and go for the Welsh nat. Looks like NTD’s best hope at the moment
#3
August 2nd, 2009 06:25
Watched this horse win the scottish national, had plenty of supporters before the race the most note worthy from sun newspaper saying underestimate this horse at your peril. He loves it soft but won on dry, front runner from beginning to end with reserve in tank to see of two challenges at the end. Unlikely to be hampered at aintree if runs, jumps for fun and for me at 40/1 would be the best each way bet of race.
#4
August 2nd, 2009 09:27
TC – I know this thread is predominantly about Hello Bud but you bring up some good points about a horse that frustrates me enormoursly – Irish Raptor. I will just throw in some stats I’ve been working on on that horse as I’ve now come to the conclusion (after losing money on him) that he is just better served by shorter distances. I think he can get away with winning over 3m 2f when he is well handicapped or the opposition is not too strong but I doubt if he could win a top notch handicap over 3m 2f or further.
Have a look at these figures when he has run OVER 24f:
Key:
Date Dist Course Value Rating Ground Placing
10/06 26f Wincanton 5k 93 G/S 1st
10/06 25f Wetherby 3k 100 Soft UR
02/07 25f Sandown 9k 125 Soft 1st
11/07 26f Carlisle 26k 135 Good 8th
11/07 26f Aintree 57k 132G/S 6th
01/08 27f Cheltenham 16k 129 G/S 1st
02/08 25f Sandown 31k 134 Soft 4th
02/08 29f Haydock 71k 134 G/S 6th
03/08 34f Uttoxeter 57k 132 G/S 5th
04/08 26f Cheltenham 15k 138 G/S 6th
11/08 26f Aintree 67k 138 Heavy 6th
12/08 26f Cheltenham 57k 136 G/S 9th
02/09 27f Newbury 15k 129 Good UR
03/09 26f Cheltenham 36k 129 G/S 10th
So, three wins in chases OVER 24f off marks of 93, 125 and 129 and in races worth 5k, 9k and 16k. I think when the quality of the race is better over this sort of trip Irish Raptor tends to struggle and unless he was exceptionally well handicapped I couldn’t see him winning a top class handicap at 3m 2f or above let alone a National. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not knocking the horse I thought his victory in the Topham was superb but I think that is his best distance and I think races at around 2m 6f/3m would be his best target for 09/10.
I may well open an Irish Raptor thread as I think he may be the sort of horse that a lot of people are interested in but for me I would want Hello Bud in a match bet if Nigel Twiston-Davies does let them both line up. Any thoughts?
#5
August 2nd, 2009 10:17
NTD obviously feels that IR will get the trip and if he gets into the national he will be off almost bottom weight. I’m not sure stamina is a great issue for him, he’s won a 27f chase at Cheltenham which must be almost equivalent to a 4m at Aintree, goes well on gd-sft and Twister has been aiming this one at the national for a couple of years, i’m not convinced he’ll win but he will be NTD best hope, would like to see him have a good run of a higher mark though.
Admin – Think we should open a page up on Mr Pointment, really interests me, as he’s come down to a good mark this is the only matching the trends currently followed closely by the Irish nat front 2. If i had to back any right now it would be these 3
#6
August 2nd, 2009 10:37
Irish Raptor seems to pass the stats. Techincally if I was processing the national and he was amongst the entries I have to tick yes to stamina. I know that when you follow a horse and he loses money it can frustrate you and cloud your view, it’s happened to me before and probably happen to me again.
I’ve looked at your figures to try and work out if thes a pattern, if he prefers a certain condition, he seems best on a galloping track, his wins above 3 miles you stated his wins below 68k 22f Aint good OR 133 beating 28 other horses.
The only negative is that he’s an horse who only wins now and then so he would have to have his season geared towards the national and not cheltenham. If he’s entered I would like to see what Nigel says when the weights are published.
#7
August 2nd, 2009 10:42
TC,
I’ll make a note of your request for a Mr Pointment page but as he’s not currently quoted anywhere and connections withdrew him quite early from the National entries last year I’m not sure Paul Nicholls will target him at the National this year. If he gets quoted by two or more bookies or if you/we see something positive from the Nicholls camp about the National then we will, of course, open up a page.
In the meantime, as I’m sure you know, we have a profile page for the Irish National winner Niche Market so if you want to make any further observations on that horse then please do so on this page:
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-runners-2010/grand-national-runners-2010-niche-market/
I’ll also make sure that the Irish Grand National Runner Up Church Island gets a page as soon as he starts getting some quotes from the bookies.
Thanks.
#8
August 2nd, 2009 10:53
Neil,
That’s whats great about this race, don’t you think? Differing opinions? I’d like to think I’m not letting my pocket cloud my view on this horse and I’m trying to be objective in thinking that the SEVEN times he has raced for over 20k at OVER 24f he hasn’t managed anything better than 4th. I’m really not convinced he is a true stayer in a decent class but as I say its all a matter of opinions and I’m sure we are all waiting with baited breath for horses like Irish Raptor to appear on our screens again.
Maybe we can have a friendly £1 bet about where he finishes the next time he is in a decent class staying handicap?
#9
August 2nd, 2009 16:30
Admin I think this site is first class, composed by experts such as yourself, as well as the numerous punters such as myself, TC, and stayer to name but a few.
Its only human nature to have an opinion on a subect which comes close to the heart, and only human nature to get frustrated when backing horses/ or whatever and they let you down time and time again.
I’ve been punting (mostly on horses) since I’ve been legally able to do so, apart from the National where my dad probably placed my 50p Each way bets for me, and now I’am 46 and I still don’t know everything about racing.
The National has always held a certain sensation for me since my first bet on Red Rum in 1977, closely followed by the Gold Cup (Cheltenham not Ascot). In fact in general I prefer jumps to flat although the been a few flat horses who impressed me.
You are probably right on the subject of Irish Raptor, but a year younger than his stable mate Hello Bud, the time for him to develop.
The one for me in Nigel stable is Tricky Trickster, but the stats say he’s too young.
I just re-examined IR and noticed that no wins in class one company and his jumping not very fluent. So athough he would techincally pass on stamina I think I might look somewhere else for the Grand National.
As for Mr Pointment the horse loves Aintree (National course) and would run all day long, but I don’t think the connections think he’ll stay and sadly I must agree with them. I like to be proven wrong on that though.
Ps Mr Pointment would also techincally be a selection having won the Becher’s Chase.
#10
August 2nd, 2009 17:54
Hi Neil,
Just a quick note to say how much we appreciate the input from all our regulars such as yourself – the exchange of viewpoints is what this site is all about and hopefully helping each other along the way to maybe even coming out the other end showing a profit.
If anyone has a Grand National subject they would like to discuss that we aren’t currently covering please let me know and we will see if we can cover it.
Thanks again.
#11
August 3rd, 2009 08:25
Hello Bud will be 12 next season. I know 12yos have won the National (and recently) but many horses are on the decline at that age. Next April is still a long way away so I would want to see how Hello Bud looks through the autumn before I consider him for the National. It will be interesting to see if he shows the same ability and zest this season as he did at the back-end of last season.
As for Irish Raptor, i’m not the greatest fan of this horse. The big positive for him is that he’s jumped around those fences 5 times including a win and a 2nd in the last two renewals of the Topham. He clearly handles the fences and goes well at Aintree.
The problem, which has already been highlighted by others, is that his record in Class 1 chases over 3m+ is dire, and that includes 2 poor runs in the Becher Chase on a course he clearly performs on. There can only be so many excuses before you come to the conclusion that a) he doesn’t stay 24f+ in Class 1 races, and/or b) the handicapper has his measure at this grade.
The stamina issue is interesting. He’s a full brother to Frantic Tan who won the big Haydock Gold Cup over 3m4f and also by his sire (Zaffaran) are useful stayers like Beau (Whitbread), Heltornic (Haydock Gold Cup), Another Rum (Chelt 4-Miler) and also class acts like Gold Cup winner Looks Like Trouble. On the dam side, his dam-sire is Buckskin, who sired National winner Amberleigh House and Eider winner Hollybank Buck. There is clearly a lot of ability and stamina in his pedigree but it’s possible that Irish Raptor is slightly better at trips at just under 3m hence he can win the Topham but off the same sort of rating he struggles in races over 3m+.
#12
August 3rd, 2009 18:51
Share the doubts that Hello Bud might not be good enough
However I am interested in how he fares next season because The Twister has only had him for 6 runs (4 wins), he’s improved him by 30lbs in that time and the horse has won on all types of going – and has only run in 17 chases aged 11
I believe that NTD has won the National twice with Earth Summit (won Welsh National) and Bindaree (3rd in Welsh National before GN win)
Should Hello Bud have a Welsh National entry it would be a very good sign – placed effort there and a decent RPR and he becomes very interesting as we know NTD can get them ready for the big day and the Welsh National is one of the better trials
From memory NTD was really beaming after Hello Bud won the Scottish National – he mentioned Irish Raptor (”eats those (Aintree) fences for breakfast”) & Tricky Trickster (now with Nicholls) but I had the feeling that Hello Bud was really his number one GN hope for next year
He might just be an older version of Lord Gyllene
#13
August 5th, 2009 13:32
Nothing much has changed for me in the past 4 months – I still fancy FLINTOFF strongly.
#14
August 5th, 2009 18:41
Interesting comment Daniel, Flintoff never concidered it before.
Won over 3 miles in heavy going at Newbury in a class 3 race back in Jan 07 so it’s been a long time since he visited the winner’s enclosure, but his place efforts have been more encouraging beaten into second behind Russian Trigger in the Midlands Grand National by two and a quarter lengths in March this year and third to Iris De Bamle in the scottish national of 08 beaten by sixteen and a quarter lengths bodes well for him. Only nine if connections aim him for the national.
#15
August 5th, 2009 21:16
Can’t have Flintoff until he wins a decent race
Most National winners have won a Class 1 race before they win the National
Flintoff has not won since early 2007 and his best win was in a Class 3
#16
August 5th, 2009 21:56
I like Flintoff but as Pablo says, he’s not done the business in a class 1 or class 2 race though he has run well in a Scottish National, Red Square Gold Cup and Midlands National, and was not disgraced in an Irish National. Part of the problem is that he’s rated 140 now (high of 143) but his last win was off 122 so he’s been creeping up the handicap without winning. The handicapper may have his measure but he does seem to improve ove marathon trips so I couldn’t rule him out.
Whilst we’re on Hello Bud it’s probably worth mentioning the horse he beat at Ayr. If you fancy Hello Bud then Gone To Lunch must come into the reckoning. Only went down by 1/2l when carrying 11-10 and giving Hello Bud 15lbs. Revised ratings put GTL on 153 and Hello Bud on 140 so GTL is 2lbs better off from now on. I know he’s a second season chaser but he does tick a lot of the right boxes:
Won a class 1 chase (Grade 2)
Won over 3m+
Form in key race and over 4m+
RPR > 144 left-handed
Won 3 of his 8 chases and placed in 4 of the others.
He’s only run one bad race in his life and that was in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham but he quickly bounced back from that. He’s a class act to have finished 2nd in Grade One races over fences and hurdles and he’s tough too. Slight worry is that his OR is 153. Unless Denman runs I would like to see that come down by 5-6lbs.
#17
August 5th, 2009 22:20
Stayer you say Gone To Lunch is a second season chaser. Does that mean last year he was a novice or do you mean that he’s had two full years in handicap company. If latter then GTL would be a very interesting choice.
#18
August 6th, 2009 07:21
‘Most National winners have WON a C1 race’
Really? What are the stats on this please. I use placed, and he’s done that three times. Would be interested to know which National winners have won not having previously won a C1 race.
I just think he looks like he might be coming in to the best form of his career at the moment and that he will be aimed at the GN this year.
He goes on absolutely any ground, which is also a bonus for an ante post National bet.
#19
August 6th, 2009 08:35
Neil,
Gone To Lunch will be a 2nd-season chaser this season meaning he was a novice last season and will be running in open company this season. 2nd-season chasers don’t have a great record in the National, but his run in the Scottish National and his 3rd place behind Inglis Drever in a Cleeve Hurdle when only a novice, show he can mix it up with the big boys. He ran in 8 chases last season and Hedgehunter and Lord Gyllene won the National after around 11/12 chase starts so he’s not far away from their levels of chasing experience. Lord Gyllene was also a 2nd season chaser so it can be done.
Daniel,
After this year’s National Crisp posted some info on that stats upheld by Mon Mome’s win:
“Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 16/16″
“top 3 C1 chase, 24/24″
Whilst Flintoff boasts a couple of top 3 places in Class 1 contests he has not as yet got head in front in a Class 1 or 2 chase. The last 16 National winners all have.
#20
August 6th, 2009 10:41
With the exception of Lord Gyllene the last 16 winners have all won a Class 1 chase at some stage of their career before winning the big one at Aintree – sometimes as Novices
Some like Papillon (16f), Amberleigh House (20f) and Comply Or Die (21f) at below 3 miles but still they had the class to win a decent race
#21
August 6th, 2009 11:29
Pablo,
I didn’t realise that the Becher Chase wasn’t a Class 1 until 2006 so strictly speaking you’re right in that Amberleigh House had not won a Class 1 beyond 20f. It’s strange to think that that the Becher Chase was anything other than a Class 1 with the likes of Earth Summit, Young Kenny, Kildimo, Clan Royal and Silver Birch winning the race.
#22
August 6th, 2009 11:34
I didnt realise he hadnt won a C2 either.
Im sure he can pick up a suitable prize before the race next year though. Time will tell I guess!
#23
August 6th, 2009 13:40
Flintoff is interesting though because, like his part owner, he’s had his fair share of injury problems
Last season he only ran twice coming a good second in the Midlands National after showing up very well for a long way from out of the handicap in a better race at Cheltenham in November
If they can keep him sound and fit for the whole of next season he should continue to progress
One thing is for sure, if he does line up on the day he will not be a value price because the once a year brigade and the Beeb will be all over him given connections (Freddie, last year’s winning trainer etc)
I’d just want to see some more progress before getting involved
#24
August 6th, 2009 16:12
Guys,
Some great stuff on here re Flintoff and Gone To Lunch but could we keep this thread predominantly about Hello Bud and if you want to discuss the other two horses then perhaps you could move your comments over to the Early Fancies thread:
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2010/grand-national-2010-early-fancies/
I do try and keep a low profile for this sort of thing but we had a few requests asking for info relating to each horse to be more easily accessible last year and threads for some of the main fancies seemed the best way to go and its too early to open threads for all of the horses quoted.
Gone To Lunch will probably get a thread as we progress through the year and Flintoff may do if he starts to be quoted by some of the high street bookies and not just on Betfair. I will kick things off on the Early Fancies thread with my thoughts on Flintoff.
Thanks again for keeping things so interesting at a quiet time of year.
#25
August 6th, 2009 19:37
I don’t know if Hello Bud would be in my short list, even though he gets a yes on stamina, I don’t think the scottish national is a route which trainers take. I know Earth Summit did but when he won the Scottish National he was a novice, and the Grand National years later.
#26
August 26th, 2009 10:55
Hello Bud has a positive on most stats apart from TS, 115.
I think that 16/16 GN winners have posted an RPR 7lbs higher than their GN OR in one of their previous eight chases leading up to their win. At the moment HB’s OR is 141 and his best RPR is 145.
Probably needs another good performance in C1 chase.
#27
September 11th, 2009 10:49
Hi everyone,
September and already talking about potential National horses!!! Love it!!
I use a system called Dosage as the main part of my race analysis and my 1st book on the subject is due for release on 24th October. The Aintree Grand National is a race that has produced very strong trends with regards to Dosage ratings and looking at Hello Bud’s Dosage figures suggest to me he will struggle. Although he is a confirmed stayer he has too much speed in his pedigree to be classed as an Aintree National contender.
The Grand national is 1 of 145 National Hunt races I put under the spotlight in my book – Narrowing the Field – How to use Dosage to win at National Hunt racing.
I will be popping back to this site to add my thoughts on any other National fancies you guys are discussing, to add my Dosage based angle.
Thanks
Ben Aitken
#28
September 15th, 2009 21:28
Hi Ben I used the dosage system on the flat, mainly on the Derby, but do know it can be used on the National because it was once tried by Nick Mordin in the Racing Post Weekender. I don’t pretend to know everything about the Dosage system but do know it to do with breeding of four generations (sire only). It finds the balance of speed and stamina. Any input towards the national and other races would be of great interest.
I was wondering on two horses you could calculate for me first is Backstage who won at Ffos Las to me he seems a perfect candidate for a national although my current list has only just started and the bound to be others much better and second is Fire and Rain who is a little young but in a couple of years could emerge onto the national scene.
THANK YOU!!
#29
September 15th, 2009 22:07
Hi ben checked out your site, would I be able to buy this book over the counter, say at my local WH Smiths, or do I have to order direct from you.
#30
September 16th, 2009 16:33
Breeding is an interesting topic
I used to use breeding as one the key factors for finding the GN winner (and it held up for a long time) but I’m not so sure that it’s as conclusive these days
In the past few years many Derby winners have subsequently failed to stay 1m 4f (when in previous years they would have contested the King George and Arc) – and arguably the best horse of the past 20 years (Sea The Stars) split the breeding experts before the Derby this year, some said “yes he stays” and others “no way”
Also the proliferation of French breds in National Hunt racing has altered things I feel
All in all it’s more of a mixed bag and, while I’m sure that you can rule out certain horses on breeding, King John’s Castle was not too far away and his breeding does not shout “stayer”
From 1990 I would put the winners into four crude categories – “highly likely” stayers, “likely”, “inconclusive” and “unlikely” stayers based on my analysis of their breeding (irrespective of previous form or distances run)
Mr Frisk (unlikely)
Seagram (highly likely)
Party Politics (highly likely)
Miinnehoma (highly likely)
Royal Athlete (inconclusive)
Rough Quest (highly likely)
Lord Gyllene (highly likely)
Earth Summit (inconclusive)
Bobbyjo (highly likely)
Papillon (highly likely)
Red Marauder (unlikely)
Bindaree (highly likely)
Monty’s Pass (highly likely)
Amberleigh House (highly likely)
Hedgehunter (highly likely)
Numbersixvalverde (highly likely)
Silver Birch (highly likely)
Comply Or Die (likely)
Mon Mome (unlikely)
The results are:
highly likely 13
likely 1
inconclusive 2
unlikely 3
That’s 12/19 highly likely – which is strong but consider that every year potentially half the field is highly likely to stay on paper
Which means that I wouldn’t use breeding on its own as a guide
#31
September 16th, 2009 16:35
…sorry 13/19
#32
September 16th, 2009 18:08
Neil
At the moment you can only purchase my book from the http://www.highstakes.co.uk/shop/. On release (24th October) or just before then it will also be available through Amazon. There are no plans to release it for sale in the high street book shops as the publishers feel it may be too much of a specialist subject although if early sales go well this is likely to change (obviously I hope this is the case!!).
As for the 2 horses you mentioned, Backstage and Fire and Rain, please see my following views –
Backstage – Unlikely winner. This French bred has a Dosage rating that is fairly heavily speed orientated and I would be surprised if the National was its cup of tea. Outside of its points starts all its wins have come on good or better ground, this tie’s in with its speedy Dosage figures.
Fire and Rain – An interesting contender (age apart). This Gelding has a Dosage Profile not dissimilar to 2005 winner Hedgehunter’s profile. However Hedgehunter was one of the faster winners (based on Dosage)in the past 15 years so Fire and Rain would have to prove he was classy enough to win with a rating that is just above the ideal range.
I hope that is of some interest to you Neil.
Many thanks
#33
September 16th, 2009 19:27
Pablo looking at your list its very interesting.
Mr Frisk the 1990 winner you got as unlikely he (and I might be wrong here) was the last winner when the going was either good to firm or firm. The time is the current fastest (previously held by Rummy when he beat Crisp.) On fast ground stamina should not be much of an issue.
Red Marauder was in mud like Earth Summit but there the was only two finishers plus another two who remounted, that can’t happen anymore. You think that stamina played apart that day.
Ben I’am indeed interested in your book but like Pablo says the more to racing than just breeding, but its a start.
THANK YOU!!
#34
September 16th, 2009 20:03
Neil & Pablo
Indeed, there is a lot more to racing than breeding but my book does not pretend to give ready made winners, it is as the title suggest a way to “Narrow the Field”.
By the way you are spot on with MR FRISK. He does hold the track record and it was the last time the race was run on ground with firm in the description. He also had the speediest Dosage rating of any winner in the past 25 years, this was a big help on the fast ground and possibly the reason for his record breaking time.
Thanks guys
#35
September 16th, 2009 21:09
With Mr Frisk holding the current fastest time for the National, I realise that the ground was a key factor, but I think they also modify the fences, particularly Beechers. This as led to the race being a true test of stamina.
Of course if you read the history of the Grand National they always seemed to modify the fences, for example in 1839 when Lottery won where the Water Jump is now the used to be a brick wall, that lasted for four nationals.
#36
September 17th, 2009 17:53
Referring to the dosage indexes, which horses do you think we should be looking out for. In particular the likes of Irish Raptor, Church Island, Over the Creek. Another one i’m still interested in very much is Mr Pointment, Nicholls said he doesnt stay, i’m still not convinced that is true given his record in the race, think Mr Pointment has changed stables as well.
#37
September 17th, 2009 20:03
TC
Thanks for the interest in the Dosage side of things. Im currently tidying up the loose ends of my book before I send the final part to my publishers so wont be able to give you a detailed answer tonight. I will give your question a proper reply over the weekend but off the top of my head I think Dosage does suggest Mr Pointment is suited to the National. Is this another national winner Mr Nicholls has let go of…..
Speak soon
Ben Aitken
#38
September 18th, 2009 18:15
Seems like we’re all looking along the right lines regarding dosage indexes for the national so far.
Ben – How are we able to purchase your book? i still haven’t a clue over the dosage indexes, are there any that take your fancy at the moment in relation to the dosage index, other than the ones we have mentioned
Does anyone have any news on Mr Pointment, would like to know where he is as he has come down to a nice mark and hits all the stats
#39
September 18th, 2009 18:51
TC
At this moment in time you can purchase my book from here – http://www.highstakes.co.uk/shop/
Closer to release date it will also become available on Amazon.
Hopefully once you have read my book the Dosage theory will become much clearer to you. I have tried to simplify the explanation of Dosage as best possible as I feel in the past it has been explained in a fairly complex manner.
In all honesty I havent thought about my own national fancies yet for next year although Niche Market interests me at the moment. I have not checked how he sits with other stats however.
As far as Mr Pointment goes I cant actually see any evidence of him leaving P Nicholls.
#40
September 20th, 2009 13:29
TC
In answer to you previous query –
Over The creek would fit the profile of a National winner, a well balanced Dosage similar to Hedgehunter and Amberleigh House.
Irish Raptor is borderline. Couldnt be completely ruled out on Dosage but is heading towards having to much speed.
Church Island has been discussed on the Kerry National thread.
Regards
#41
September 21st, 2009 19:23
Hi TC I don’t think Ben answered your question on Mr Pointment, “does he stays?” I don’t know everything about the dosage system, hopefully when I purchase his book I know enough to help me come to some sort of conclusion.
To help you come to a conclusion yourself I’ve taken all the dosage info of the past 20 winners, Esha Ness excluded.
Mon Mome B=1, I=1, C=2, S=0, P=0, DP=4, DI=3.00, CD=0.75
Comply Or Die B=2, I=0, C=6, S=4, P=0, DP=12, DI=0.71, CD=0.00
Silver Birch B=2, I=0, C=4, S=8, P=6, DP=20, DI=0.25, CD=-0.80
Numbersixvalverde B=2, I=0, C=0, S=6, P=2, DP=10, DI=0.25, CD=-0.60
Hedgehunter B=8, I=3, C=8, S=2, P=7, DP=28, DI=1.15, CD=0.11
Amberleigh House B=5, I=1, C=8, S=2, P=4, DP=20, DI=1.00, CD=0.05
Monty’s Pass B=3, I=4, C=6, S=0, P=7, DP=20, DI=1.00, CD-0.20
Bindaree B=1, I=1, C=3, S=4, P=1, DP=10, DI=0.54, CD=-0.30
Red Marauder B=5, I=0, C=1, S=0, P=0, DP=6, DI=11.00, CD=1.67
Papillon B=0, I=1, C=4, S=1, P=6, DP=12, DI=0.33, CD=-1.00
Bobbyjo B=5, I=1, C=4, S=6, P=4, DP=20, DI=0.67, CD=-0.15
Earth Summit B=3, I=0, C=11, S=2, P=0, DP=16, DI=1.13, CD=0.25
Lord Gyllene B=2, I=0, C=2, S=4, P=6, DP=14, DI=0.27, CD=-0.86
Rough Quest B=0, I=0, C=6, S=8, P=6, DP=20, DI=0.18, CD=-1.00
Royal Athlete B=0, I=0, C=0, S=0, P=0, DP=0, DI=inf, CD=inf
Miinnehomma B=3, I=2, C=7, S=8, P=0, DP=20, DI=0.74, CD=0.00
Party Politics B=3, I=2, C=1, S=12, P=0, DP=18, DI=0.44, CD=-0.22
Seagram B=2, I=0, C=2, S=12, P=10, DP=26, DI=0.13, CD=-1.00
Mr Frisk B=1, I=4, C=3, S=0, P=0, DP=8, DI=4.33, CD=0.75
Little Polveir B=3, I=4, C=3, S=0, P=2, DP=12, DI 2.43, CD=0.50
Here is how Mr Pointment who’s out of Old Vic stands,
B=2, I=0, C=7, S=4, P=5, DP=18, DI=0.44, CD=-0.56
according to his CD he’ll stay (how far I don’t know) perhaps Ben can throw some further light on the horse.
#42
September 22nd, 2009 11:01
Neil
You are correct; I did neglect to mention Mr Pointment, my apologies. As you stated, his Dosage figures do suggest he will stay. I believe it is his handicap mark that has been the major hindrance to this animal as he was clobbered for winning the becher chase. Now that he is down to a more feasible mark, I believe he has to be considered a live contender. Like the track/fences and has the correct Dosage profile to win a national.
Regards
Ben
#43
September 22nd, 2009 13:05
That was meant to be ‘likes the track/fences’.
If anyone is interested, Mr Pointment gets most of his stamina points from Sadlers Wells on his sires’ side and Run The Gauntlet on his Dams’ side.
Regards
Ben
#44
September 23rd, 2009 17:35
cheers guys, would love to know where the horse is at, his form looks a delibrate attempt to bring his rating down, for maybe another crack at the national. Certainly will be keeping an eye out
#45
September 23rd, 2009 19:34
Hey Guys
I tried replying to this post about Mr Pointment put it still seems to be waiting moderation? I used my new email address, would this be causing a hold up? I used my old email for this post.
Thanks
#46
September 24th, 2009 14:19
Ignore my previous post (no. 45) comments are now on. Mr Pointment looks a horse that is likely to complete the course and has the correct Dosage however does he always put his best foot (hoof) forward? As I mentioned before, if it was just his handicap mark that was stopping him then he must now have a cracking shout come April, providing his mark does not rise again.
#47
September 24th, 2009 17:56
Hi guys for my personal view on Mr Pointment look on the Black Apalachi thread.
#48
September 24th, 2009 19:11
i take your point regarding the stamina issue with him, but he is now rated 10lbs lower, if he doesnt go for the becher again his mark may become even lower over the next year or so
He was travelling very well in the national until he blundered at the 26th and was pulled up shortly after – would this have happened if he’d been a stone lighter, i really doubt it, he jumps for fun. Regarding stats and trends, this is the only one that hits them perfectly. Would love to see what the plans are for him.
He was sold to P. Murphy in May, is this the same owner as cerium and arteea? if so surely the national will be on his agenda
The only other horses interesting me at the moment are one cool cookie, arbor supreme and niche market. One cool cookie is yet to prove himself, i feel though in a big race. Looks a year too early for Arbor Supreme. Niche market looks very capable but seems a far better horse going right handed looking through his results
#49
September 24th, 2009 23:20
Mr Pointment three runs at Aintree have all been over 11 stone, first bechers he won carrying 11-05(OR 146) on Good to Soft, Good in places. Then came the national where he carried 11-11 (OR 155) on Good, Good to Soft in places, finally his second Bechers he carried 11-06 (OR 153) on heavy.
If Mr Pointment does go for Aintree a feather weight could help, also discovered his OR is now back to his last winning figure, last OR was 147 when ran at Newbury. Running over wrong distances helped lower his OR but he might also run over hurdles. Keeping my opinion open on Mr Pointment, but I still say the going as also got to be right.
#50
September 25th, 2009 08:19
Mr Pointment was picked up for £18k by Paul Murphy at the DBS Horses In Training Auction back in May – the same auction in which Tricky Trickster changed hands. I’ll come back to that in a moment.
Looking at the BHA website, Mr Pointment has a current chase rating of 141, which is much lower than his high of 155. Off that sort of mark he would clearly be interesting though I still have my doubts about his stamina.
What really worries me though is his new connections. The DBS Sales List has the buyer down as P Murphy. I am assuming that this is the trainer Paul Murphy (though I might be wrong). Now, Paul Murphy trains a lot of horses owned by Fergus Wilson and Fergus does crazy things like running Astonville in the Champion Hurdle AND the Gold Cup before running in the National. His 4yo Maidstone Mixture ran in the Derby and St Leger in 2008 and has since been juvenile novice hurdling (ran in the Triumph Hurdle this year) and the horse is now handicap chasing. I would be very concerned about backing a horse owned by this man, especially ante-post. I’m sure the National will be the target but he’ll probably run at least once at Cheltenham first!!
#51
September 25th, 2009 10:46
Surely the handicapper will apply the “Aintree factor” when reassessing Mr Pointment – so that he goes up a few pounds for his previous course form?
#52
September 27th, 2009 09:58
Heard something interesting yesterday on C4 Racing. In an interview with Tim Vaughan he mentioned how his stable has expanded over the last 18 months and that Paul Beck has moved 3 horses from Venetia Williams. Those horses were Stan, Atouchbetweencara and FLINTOFF.
#53
September 29th, 2009 12:21
Hi Guys,
There is some great stuff on here but I’m a bit concerned we are going a bit off beam as this thread is supposed to be an easy reference space for people looking for comments about Hello Bud. It’s not a problem at all but could you direct your comments to the “early fancies” thread from now on unless they are relating to Hello Bud.
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2010/grand-national-2010-early-fancies/
Thanks again
#54
October 31st, 2009 09:37
I see Hello Bud is running today in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot along with other Grand National possibles Gone To Lunch, Always Waining, Can’t Buy Time and Boychuk.
Any fancies for this race?
#55
October 31st, 2009 10:48
Admin, looking at Timeform figures for this race (1.50 at Ascot) the race looks to competitive.
#56
October 31st, 2009 10:58
Hello Bud does have the right profile though to be in the thick of things at the winning post. However the ones I would have been interested in if they had stood their ground are Casey Jones and Tamarinbleu (now in the Charlie Hall Chase and according to Ben’s Book & Timeform have an excellent chance. )
#57
October 31st, 2009 11:13
Always waining would have won quite easily at cheltenham had he not fallen at the second last. He must go very close here as he would effectively be well in on his last performance. Think he looks the best bet.
Looks like Hello Bud will be entered in some big races this year so i wouldnt rule the GN out for him
#58
October 31st, 2009 11:21
This is Gone To Lunch’s prep for the Hennessy I think and McCoy is on another horse so I’d avoid this one
Always Waining is interesting if over his recent fall & goes well right-handed
Best Actor could be anything but was pulled up recently – is he fit? Worth considering at 50/1
Can’t Buy Time is a CD winner and failed to stay 4 miles at Cheltenham (travelled really well for most of the race) but was really impressive when winning at Sandown last season and may be under-rated for it – if fit and ready he takes the beating I think (plus the great man is in the saddle)
Very competitive race and no bet is the call I think because there are a few others in with a decent chance as well
#59
October 31st, 2009 11:30
Thanks for the info on GTL, Pablo, will be watching how it does. However like you and I concluded “No Bet, Here.”
#60
October 31st, 2009 18:36
I think we may have seen some grand national candidates in the race
Seven is my number grand national 2011 maybe?
#61
October 31st, 2009 19:04
Gone To Lunch was never dangerous, Hello bud led till 3 out weakened 2 out, and Always Waining finished closer to last than first. This race was just too competitive to take a hand in, but if you had a angle to pick the winner The Last Derby at double carpet (33/1 racing slang), then well done.
Ben for the Charlie Hall race my hopes were pinned on Tamarinbleu, and the West Yorkshire Pettifour I know you said that the was only a handful of horses in each race and was disappointed, but I was happy with the races, and a bit of luck they would have won.
Heres hoping your book makes a profit!
#62
November 1st, 2009 01:31
Tc that’s an interesting conclusion about Seven is my number, would like to know why? Thought nothing really special about the race, seeing it on TV . Seven may have been passing tired horses.
#63
November 1st, 2009 11:43
I think seven is my number could turn out to be a Gn contender in years to come, purely due to connections. The owner loves the GN and he’s made a great start to chasing. He was staying on strongly yesterday. I could see him lining up in 2011 after Comply or Die is retired
#64
November 2nd, 2009 09:04
Thought it was a decent reappearnace my Hello Bud, stayed on well enough after leading throughout?
#65
November 22nd, 2009 14:29
My opinion on Hello Bud. His OR in the Becher’s chase was 142 so if he stays around that mark he would have an ideal weight.
He very likely to stay the national trip (he stayed the Scottish version well).
He jumped around the National course (Becher’s Chase) excellent.
Come April he might well make my short list.
#66
November 22nd, 2009 19:12
I might add he finished last of the five who completed the course but that’s only twelve and half lengths. Like I said if he learns to settle he could be a major player in april.
#67
November 22nd, 2009 22:31
I’ll use Crisp’s analysis
12 yr old, next April, +
OR 142, + (but handicapper penalised previous
Scot Nat winner +
10 or more chases, +
won 1 of his last 10 chases, +
top 3 C1 chase, +
won at 29f, +
RPR 144 or more, +
left handed RPR 141 or more, +
17k C1,C2 win, +
40% 1st,2nd,3rd strike rate in chase, +
3 chase wins, +
winner profile,top 5 Hennessey etc, +
Top 3 in current season +
100% on the trends and I don’t think we’ll see him out again for a while now