Grand National Runners 2010: Hello Bud

A remarkable success story, Hello Bud has registered seven successes over fences in a little over fifteen months and this has seen the eleven year old gelding rise sixty pounds in the official ratings and culminated in a victory in a Scottish National.

The first three victories in 2008 were recorded under the care of David Wintle but the horse was transferred to Nigel Twiston-Davies for the 08/09 season and the Gloucestershire trainer managed to squeeze a further four victories from the son of Jurado and wasn’t afraid to travel to do so – recording victories at Kelso, Fontwell, Wincanton and finally that famous win at Ayr.

The victory in the Scottish National was the third win in the race for the yard after the wins in 1992 for Captain Dibble and 1994 for Earth Summit who famously went on to win at Aintree in 1998. The question for readers of our forum is can Hello Bud match his famous stablemate and go on and do the same double? Obviously given Hello Bud’s age (11 rising 12) he doesn’t have four years like Earth Summit to work up to it and if he is going to win the Grand National 2010 would look to be his best chance. He obviously has stamina in abundance and will probably be the first horse to be going into the race for some time with 3 wins at around 4 miles (31f at Hereford, 32f at Hexham and 33f at Ayr)

I did note that the last two of Hello Bud’s wins were achieved with the aid of a tongue tie and whilst that obviously helped any slight concerns the stable had about his breathing I always wonder if problems in that area have a tendency to get worse? It could be that Twiston-Davies managed to farm a rich vein of form from this horse and he may struggle to reproduce that form now that he finds himself so much further up the handicap?

What do our readers think? Is Hello Bud a horse you will be watching closely for the 2010 Grand National or do you think the 08/09 season was the pinnacle of his achievements?

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67 Responses to Grand National Runners 2010: Hello Bud

  1. Pablo says:

    Surely the handicapper will apply the “Aintree factor” when reassessing Mr Pointment – so that he goes up a few pounds for his previous course form?

  2. The Stayer says:

    Heard something interesting yesterday on C4 Racing. In an interview with Tim Vaughan he mentioned how his stable has expanded over the last 18 months and that Paul Beck has moved 3 horses from Venetia Williams. Those horses were Stan, Atouchbetweencara and FLINTOFF.

  3. admin says:

    Hi Guys,

    There is some great stuff on here but I’m a bit concerned we are going a bit off beam as this thread is supposed to be an easy reference space for people looking for comments about Hello Bud. It’s not a problem at all but could you direct your comments to the “early fancies” thread from now on unless they are relating to Hello Bud.

    http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2010/grand-national-2010-early-fancies/

    Thanks again

  4. admin says:

    I see Hello Bud is running today in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot along with other Grand National possibles Gone To Lunch, Always Waining, Can’t Buy Time and Boychuk.

    Any fancies for this race?

  5. Neil says:

    Admin, looking at Timeform figures for this race (1.50 at Ascot) the race looks to competitive.

  6. Neil says:

    Hello Bud does have the right profile though to be in the thick of things at the winning post. However the ones I would have been interested in if they had stood their ground are Casey Jones and Tamarinbleu (now in the Charlie Hall Chase and according to Ben’s Book & Timeform have an excellent chance. )

  7. TC says:

    Always waining would have won quite easily at cheltenham had he not fallen at the second last. He must go very close here as he would effectively be well in on his last performance. Think he looks the best bet.
    Looks like Hello Bud will be entered in some big races this year so i wouldnt rule the GN out for him

  8. Pablo says:

    This is Gone To Lunch’s prep for the Hennessy I think and McCoy is on another horse so I’d avoid this one

    Always Waining is interesting if over his recent fall & goes well right-handed

    Best Actor could be anything but was pulled up recently – is he fit? Worth considering at 50/1

    Can’t Buy Time is a CD winner and failed to stay 4 miles at Cheltenham (travelled really well for most of the race) but was really impressive when winning at Sandown last season and may be under-rated for it – if fit and ready he takes the beating I think (plus the great man is in the saddle)

    Very competitive race and no bet is the call I think because there are a few others in with a decent chance as well

  9. Neil says:

    Thanks for the info on GTL, Pablo, will be watching how it does. However like you and I concluded “No Bet, Here.”

  10. TC says:

    I think we may have seen some grand national candidates in the race
    Seven is my number grand national 2011 maybe?

  11. Neil says:

    Gone To Lunch was never dangerous, Hello bud led till 3 out weakened 2 out, and Always Waining finished closer to last than first. This race was just too competitive to take a hand in, but if you had a angle to pick the winner The Last Derby at double carpet (33/1 racing slang), then well done.

    Ben for the Charlie Hall race my hopes were pinned on Tamarinbleu, and the West Yorkshire Pettifour I know you said that the was only a handful of horses in each race and was disappointed, but I was happy with the races, and a bit of luck they would have won.

    Heres hoping your book makes a profit!

  12. Neil says:

    Tc that’s an interesting conclusion about Seven is my number, would like to know why? Thought nothing really special about the race, seeing it on TV . Seven may have been passing tired horses.

  13. TC says:

    I think seven is my number could turn out to be a Gn contender in years to come, purely due to connections. The owner loves the GN and he’s made a great start to chasing. He was staying on strongly yesterday. I could see him lining up in 2011 after Comply or Die is retired

  14. Ewok says:

    Thought it was a decent reappearnace my Hello Bud, stayed on well enough after leading throughout?

  15. Neil S says:

    My opinion on Hello Bud. His OR in the Becher’s chase was 142 so if he stays around that mark he would have an ideal weight.
    He very likely to stay the national trip (he stayed the Scottish version well).
    He jumped around the National course (Becher’s Chase) excellent.

    Come April he might well make my short list.

  16. Neil S says:

    I might add he finished last of the five who completed the course but that’s only twelve and half lengths. Like I said if he learns to settle he could be a major player in april.

  17. TC says:

    I’ll use Crisp’s analysis

    12 yr old, next April, +
    OR 142, + (but handicapper penalised previous
    Scot Nat winner +
    10 or more chases, +
    won 1 of his last 10 chases, +
    top 3 C1 chase, +
    won at 29f, +
    RPR 144 or more, +
    left handed RPR 141 or more, +
    17k C1,C2 win, +
    40% 1st,2nd,3rd strike rate in chase, +
    3 chase wins, +
    winner profile,top 5 Hennessey etc, +
    Top 3 in current season +

    100% on the trends and I don’t think we’ll see him out again for a while now