Comments on: Grand National Runners 2010: Arbor Supreme

By: TC

TC — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 22:34:31 +0000

Now is the time to back him, if you think he can turn his season around (out to 50′s on BF). Don’t fancy him myself at the moment and it would take a bit of faith to back him now

By: Ben Aitken (NTF)

Ben Aitken (NTF) — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 21:28:28 +0000

Yes, not looking good for ARBOR SUPREME. Definitely has the look of an underachiever.

As you say, make or break next time out.

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 11:17:16 +0000

His next run will be “make or brake” for me. I still think he can do it but time is running out. He really needs to win his next race (a 1/2/3 is a minimm). Worried he is a bit like Southern Vic last year who ookked good but nevr quite delivered the pre GN results needed.

By: Ewok

Ewok — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 00:06:56 +0000

As a backer of arbor supreme I cannot deny that his preparation hasn’t gone as planned. I am more than a little concerned! hopefully a good run in the thystes will reassure me but I’m not convinced.

By: The Subways

The Subways — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 22:19:43 +0000

I’d love to know the ratio of a horse’s entries to it’s actual runs. Most horses are entered in loads of races that they don’t run in.

By: TC

TC — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 19:45:20 +0000

Why enter him 3 times then? Hedgehunter had 6 runs before the national. The first intention for AS was the hennessy. If there isn’t anything wrong with him then surely he would have had 2-3 runs over hurdles by now

By: The Subways

The Subways — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 19:20:40 +0000

TC – I don’t think Mullins ever had the intention of running in those races. They were just feelers for the english handicapper.

By: TC

TC — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 17:46:10 +0000

Systems – the major worry is the preparation for me. Being very much a hold-up horse is the other slight negative.

His last 8 runs have all been right handed, so that stat would only be a minor problem as their is no evidence to suggest he cant perform LH. Willhill chase at cheltenham could be an option before going to Aintree.
He’s been entered in 3 major chases in England, all LH, and not taken those entries up (suggests to me, that perhaps he’s another of Mr Mullins that isnt quite right). I think it would take a little bit of faith to be backing him now, hopefully he runs in the thyestes and that will tell us a lot more

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 16:57:22 +0000

“3. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43 – no”

TC I know this has been aired before but technicaly he does have this under hs belt- so its a yes for my stats.

He came 3rd in a 37k Han Chase on May 2nd. Now I know that this has now value as regards fitness for a April 2010 GN but its does qualify him for the top 4 chase etc trend in my book as the new season starts on May 1st each year (if he won without racing again before the GN that trend would still stand).

“11. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 – no”

TC I have no data on which are left handed tracks in UK and Ireland. Has he run on any? (and if so what was the RPR?) All his running has been in Ireland so how many chances has he had to obtain this trend? We need to be a lot more careful with runners who have only run in Ireland I think (a point that is often neglected). Glad you gave him the benefit of th doubt for the 30/30 trend.

I make Arbor Supreme one of the top two bets for this years GN and always have.
Think about it TC: Church Island and Arbor Supreme what a combination!

By: TC

TC — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 15:06:34 +0000

1. aged 8-12. 62/62, age trend. – yes
2. The 30/30 stat
A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19, 12/12) – ? benefit maybe? due to 2 wins over 28f
3. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43 – no
4. won 1 of last 10 chases – yes
5. weight less than 11-4, 27/27 – yes
7. top 3 C1 chase, 25/25 – yes
8. won at 24f or more, 39/39 – yes
9. RPR of 144 or more 20/20 – yes
11. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 – no
12. Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 17/17 – yes

Not a bad profile with a couple of things to put right. Has to be question marks over the fact he is very much a hold-up horse, possibly the reason he underperformed in the Irish National. Willie Mullins has tried to get him to Cheltenham, the hennessy and the welsh national. So how well has his GN preparation gone? Not great to my eyes – Hedgehunter already had 4 runs at this time before winning the national. If he was mine I would seriously consider GN 2011 instead