Grand National Runners 2010: Arbor Supreme
Arbor Supreme has been attracting a fair bit of attention here on Grand National Blog and has also sneaked up the ante-post prices for the Grand National 2010 to a best price of 25/1 with Stan James
The Willie Mullins trained gelding is declared in the runners for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park so I thought this might be a good time to set up a page for him and have a look at his record and prospects in a bit of detail and then open it up to our readers for their thoughts.
Arbor Supreme won a bumper at Leopardstown on his debut in January 2007 and it was after that run that he was purchased by JP McManus. Two subsequent runs over hurdles failed to add to his tally of wins and he returned in the 07/08 season ready to tackle the larger obstacles. His first four runs over fences were at distances up to 2m 5f and it was only when stepped up to 28furlongs and into handicap company for the first time was there the true indications of what Arbor Supreme might become. That race was the Punchestown Grand National trial and the young Mullins horse ran well to finish second to Chelsea Harbour.
Four subsequent runs that season gleaned two victories, including a win at Punchestown over 3m 6f where Black Apalachi, Notre Pere and Niche Market were all well beaten.
The 08/09 season began as the previous one had ended with a victory, this time at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f. At that point, anything seemed possible for the son of Supreme Leader but in five subsequent runs he has failed to finish better than third.
So, from a plus point, he has age on his side, stamina proven at up to 30 furlongs, victories on ground ranging from good to soft/heavy, a top-class trainer, he would probably be set to carry a weight in the low to middle ten stone range if he retains his current handicap mark, he has an owner who is very keen to win the Grand National and possibly the services of AP McCoy in the saddle if he does go to Aintree.
The negatives could be that his two main handicap wins have come at right-handed courses, he has yet to travel outside of Ireland, he possibly could have hit his handicap ceiling at around 140, his trainer seems reluctant (as far as I am aware) to commit him to the Grand National and may prefer the Irish National earlier the same week as Aintree.
How do you view Arbor Supreme’s chances in the Grand National 2010?
This post has 12 comments
#1
January 14th, 2010 17:45
See my post on the main thred which will go up on Friday night.
#2
January 14th, 2010 18:17
Willie Mullins has stated that the Grand National is the target on several occasions.
#3
January 15th, 2010 15:06
1. aged 8-12. 62/62, age trend. – yes
2. The 30/30 stat
A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19, 12/12) – ? benefit maybe? due to 2 wins over 28f
3. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43 – no
4. won 1 of last 10 chases – yes
5. weight less than 11-4, 27/27 – yes
7. top 3 C1 chase, 25/25 – yes
8. won at 24f or more, 39/39 – yes
9. RPR of 144 or more 20/20 – yes
11. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 – no
12. Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 17/17 – yes
Not a bad profile with a couple of things to put right. Has to be question marks over the fact he is very much a hold-up horse, possibly the reason he underperformed in the Irish National. Willie Mullins has tried to get him to Cheltenham, the hennessy and the welsh national. So how well has his GN preparation gone? Not great to my eyes – Hedgehunter already had 4 runs at this time before winning the national. If he was mine I would seriously consider GN 2011 instead
#4
January 15th, 2010 16:57
“3. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43 – no”
TC I know this has been aired before but technicaly he does have this under hs belt- so its a yes for my stats.
He came 3rd in a 37k Han Chase on May 2nd. Now I know that this has now value as regards fitness for a April 2010 GN but its does qualify him for the top 4 chase etc trend in my book as the new season starts on May 1st each year (if he won without racing again before the GN that trend would still stand).
“11. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 – no”
TC I have no data on which are left handed tracks in UK and Ireland. Has he run on any? (and if so what was the RPR?) All his running has been in Ireland so how many chances has he had to obtain this trend? We need to be a lot more careful with runners who have only run in Ireland I think (a point that is often neglected). Glad you gave him the benefit of th doubt for the 30/30 trend.
I make Arbor Supreme one of the top two bets for this years GN and always have.
Think about it TC: Church Island and Arbor Supreme what a combination!
#5
January 15th, 2010 17:46
Systems – the major worry is the preparation for me. Being very much a hold-up horse is the other slight negative.
His last 8 runs have all been right handed, so that stat would only be a minor problem as their is no evidence to suggest he cant perform LH. Willhill chase at cheltenham could be an option before going to Aintree.
He’s been entered in 3 major chases in England, all LH, and not taken those entries up (suggests to me, that perhaps he’s another of Mr Mullins that isnt quite right). I think it would take a little bit of faith to be backing him now, hopefully he runs in the thyestes and that will tell us a lot more
#6
January 15th, 2010 19:20
TC – I don’t think Mullins ever had the intention of running in those races. They were just feelers for the english handicapper.
#7
January 15th, 2010 19:45
Why enter him 3 times then? Hedgehunter had 6 runs before the national. The first intention for AS was the hennessy. If there isn’t anything wrong with him then surely he would have had 2-3 runs over hurdles by now
#8
January 15th, 2010 22:19
I’d love to know the ratio of a horse’s entries to it’s actual runs. Most horses are entered in loads of races that they don’t run in.
#9
January 16th, 2010 00:06
As a backer of arbor supreme I cannot deny that his preparation hasn’t gone as planned. I am more than a little concerned! hopefully a good run in the thystes will reassure me but I’m not convinced.
#10
January 24th, 2010 11:17
His next run will be “make or brake” for me. I still think he can do it but time is running out. He really needs to win his next race (a 1/2/3 is a minimm). Worried he is a bit like Southern Vic last year who ookked good but nevr quite delivered the pre GN results needed.
#11
January 24th, 2010 21:28
Yes, not looking good for ARBOR SUPREME. Definitely has the look of an underachiever.
As you say, make or break next time out.
#12
January 28th, 2010 22:34
Now is the time to back him, if you think he can turn his season around (out to 50′s on BF). Don’t fancy him myself at the moment and it would take a bit of faith to back him now