Who Will Win The Grand National 2011? MAIN THREAD PAGE 4

Hi everyone,

I would like to draw a line under any unpleasantness that has been occurring on this blog and would like to ask anyone who can’t post in a friendly manner not to do so.

Anyone who we feel is not entering into the spirit of this blog will be banned as will anyone who is purposely being disruptive.

We have just over a week to go before the Grand National 2011 and I have not had to get involved in this way in the past nearly four years I’ve been running this blog so let’s all just concentrate on talking about who we think is going to win the Grand National and why.

By all means disagree with comments that have been made but do so in a constructive way as there is no place for backbiting and bickering on this blog. If you want to do that there are plenty of other areas where you can do that.

Thank you

Darren
Admin

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847 Responses to Who Will Win The Grand National 2011? MAIN THREAD PAGE 4

  1. MikeN says:

    silver by nature 3rd and blusea cracker 6th on the voting page. both mudlovers. hmmmm.

  2. Seven Towers says:

    Does anyone else remember a Lucinda Russell grey staying on strongly in a Welsh National ending up at Aintree?!

  3. Seven Towers says:

    They say lightning doesn’t strike twice. I beg to differ!

  4. JJF says:

    MikeN I appreciate SBNs best from is so far on soft , but dont rule it out if it comes up good either imho

  5. puzzled says:

    MikeN
    April 5th, 2011 22:04
    Puzzled I dont agree with your theory that Oscar Time needs soft. G/GS will be fine

    The reason i say this is because connections only seem to run him on soft or heavy, and one can only assume that this is the ground connections presume he needs.

    In over 4 1/2 years and 28 races under rules he has only run on good ground once and there must be a reason for that.

  6. SILVER BIRCH says:

    I think people should remember my namesake Silver Birch. Right up to before the off people had him down as a winter mud loving slogathon type of horse who would be all at sea on the proverbial fast ground. The rest is history as they say and he was allowed to go off at 33/1. So I wouldnt automatically assume SBN wont go on good ground. I do understand peoples logic as to why they would be reticent to back him on drying ground but I would also say theres not enough compelling evidence to suggest 100% he wont go on it.

    I’d rather chance it that he might go on it knowing full well he’ll get the trip and will be galloping on relentlessly whilst others are gasping for air….

  7. JJF says:

    Well cant stay up any longer , Rascal by name Rascal by nature , will check in tomorrow and see if the 2nd Instalment has been published , God Bless , catch up soon .

  8. JJF says:

    Here here Siver Birch totally agree , now away to bed for definite now !

  9. Bovril III says:

    Another great day of posts above and food for thought!

    I think SOP’s trainer is either being disingenuous or doing what the man who pays the bills wants…ie a GN runner. The no run for 364 days stat is the killer. Give the lad a hurdle spin or two (to preserve his mark) at the very least!! Dont let it become a GC and GN only runs vanity/almost cruel thing like those Wilsons used to do…

    I think if he had put that article out last week SOP would be way down the votes list.

    I have my own reasons for wanting Oscar Time to win (or any of the other 5 amatures!) but I really dont think he is as far ahead of the rest as out votes are indicating. Chances…yes…that strong?….umm we may come a cropper.

    SBN righly less votes this time as going unlikely to be soft. In the big chases he has won/run well in it isnt his fault they were on soft/heavy and if Newbury had been a bog (Hennesey 10)he would still have run a stinker.
    He is unproven on better ground…but it doesnt mean he wont act on it. My worry is that there are others who may act a bit better on it.

    Arbor S: 2 things. If he is that fancied then Midnight Club should also be equally/if not more so (same applies to OT) MC isn’t. Secondly, both AP and RW have ignored him…again.

    Bluesea C: Similar to SBN although not as good recent form…do think he wont get his ground.

    MN: 9P-F58 says it all…..

    Not saying any of the 6 cant win…but think we may have got it wrong (note the ‘we’ before anyone has a pop).

  10. Pablo says:

    My thoughts on ground (to be shot down…)

    I think English-trained soft-ground revellers find it harder to keep up the gallop on better ground if the gallop is intense from the outset. Silver By Nature got ran off his feet in the Hennessy – connections admitted so.

    By contrast, Silver Birch ran on “watered ground, which produced a carpet-like surface… he appeared to be in his element throughout, jumping well and getting into an easy rhythm, which is so important on this course”.

    I have some stats about best RPR on going which I will post shortly – generally speaking most horses don’t win by more than one “ground change” from their best – i.e. good to soft to good or heavy to soft.

    The exceptions may be the Irish horses, but the ground in Ireland is generally worse (particularly for preps from Jan to Feb or March), which is why horses that run over slightly shorter trips in Ireland are able to stay longer on “English” Spring ground at the Festival or at Aintree.

    I really feel that it is worthwhile, for analytical purposes, to split English- from Irish-trained horses.

  11. maureen says:

    Supposedly when Oscar Time ran on good ground he ran excepionally well; I haven’t checked it out on his race record but it was mentioned tonight.

  12. Bovril III says:

    Aintree will water and Good there has far more ‘give’ in it as elsewhere as so little racing on the course.

    Also a hard gallop over 3m isnt as easy to sustain over 4 and half and as we saw with CBuilding last year….plenty ground can be made up from the back of mid div by a true stayer….

  13. Pablo says:

    This is using RPRs as an “objective” measure in the hope of consistency – despite the fact that RPRs are subjective – but at least someone is paid to come up with them even if we disagree – but a good starting point for discussion and interpretation at least

    — = never raced on going in a chase
    DNF = did not finish chase on going
    1 ground change = moving left or right by 1 column (i.e. Gd-Sft to G or Soft to Hvy)

    Year; Hvy; Soft; Gd-soft; G; GF; Going; Horse; Result
    1990; —; —; 128; 147; 156; F; Mr Frisk; Got his ground
    1992; —; 152; 148; 158; 145; GS; Party Politics; 1 ground change
    1995; 141; 163; —; 144; 163; G; Royal Athlete; 1 ground change
    1996; DNF; 154; 138; 170; 114; G; Rough Quest; Got his ground
    1997; —; —; 138; 157; 123; G; Lord Gyllene; Got his ground
    1998; 157; 124; 153; 153; 64; S; Earth Summit; 1 ground change
    1999; 141; 125; 153; 117; —; G; Bobbyjo; 1 ground change
    2000; 140; 150; 164; 135; —; G; Papillon; 1 ground change
    2002; 136; 144; 144; 144; DNF; G; Bindaree; Got his ground
    2003; 102; 115; 134; 142; 148; G; Monty’s Pass; 1 ground change
    2004; 143; 144; 145; 154; DNF; G; Amberleigh House; Got his ground
    2005; 132; 156; 148; 135; —; GS; Hedgehunter; 1 ground change
    2006; 146; 139; —; 111; —; GS; Numbersixvalverde; Never raced on GS but best form with soft in description (Irish-trained)
    2007; 148; 150; DNF; 140; —; G; Silver Birch; “Carpet-like” surface – RPR still better than GN OR on good ground
    2008; —; 148; 155; 155; —; G; Comply Or Die; Got his ground
    2009; 150; 151; 155; 143; —; GS; Mon Mome; Got his ground
    2010; —; 160; 159; —; —; G; Don’t Push It; 1 ground change (never raced on good ground)

    Make of that what you will – but I think there is something there

  14. Rascal says:

    THE RASCAL’S GRAND NATIONAL – PART TWO

    Despite nearly 4,000 words in exposition, and a wealth of background knowledge to hand, part one of The Rascal’s Grand National expose failed to cull the 2011 field to any great extent. 41 remain in pursuit of his approval and the time has come to trim the field down further to reach the brain-aching conclusion that will pick off the most outstanding candidates and cipher them down to The Rascal’s six to follow.

    The Rascal’s own story in this race began in 1991 when SEAGRAM, sharing the name of the race sponsors, denied GARRISON SAVANNAH and Jenny Pitman a Cheltenham Gold Cup / Aintree Grand National double. With one winner under his belt The Rascal followed up and fell in love with PARTY POLITICS in 1992. He has been hugging televisions ever since, on picking out winners in the sport’s greatest chases. 1993’s void race was a savage blow to the rollercoaster of Grand National passion but The Rascal made it three in a row following a late change of mind in selecting the 1994 winner, MIINNEHOMA.

    He endured two years away from the winner’s enclosure after that, during which time he was learning the artistry of selection so that LORD GYLLENE was a natural choice in 1997. After weeks of poring through the form The Rascal made his first BIG bet on the National in 1998 – he had not learnt the boons of ante-post betting at that time, however, and only got the sevens on EARTH SUMMIT. It paid back in bundles of hundreds, however.

    BOBBYJO also earned The Rascal’s support in 1999 and he was beginning to think it was a race he could never lose. That only lasted until 2000 when The Rascal was shell-shocked to lose his entire stake!

    Harsh times were made good when RED MARAUDER won in the mud at a big price one year later. BINDAREE slipped under the radar but The Rascal has backed five more winners since – MONTY’S PASS, AMBERLEIGH HOUSE, HEDGEHUNTER, SILVER BIRCH, COMPLY OR DIE and DON’T PUSH IT.

    It is not possible to be victorious year-on-year, or race-on-race, but 13 winners from 19 renewals shows that The Rascal has the consistency to be relied on to get close. And consistency is required from the equine challengers themselves when it comes to winning the big one.

    The Rascal utilises win rates, strike rates and a combination of the two for the purpose of whittling down the Grand National field – let’s see if it helps this year.

    CONSISTENCY – Win Rates

    All the percentages here relate to chase runs only and are regardless of distance or the number of runners.

    In the last fifteen years 33 horses have gone into the Grand National having won less than 11% of their trips over fences. Of these, 20 have failed to finish, which is an above average completion rate of 39.4%. Unfortunately, if you factor in those with win rates between 11% and 15.9% the dividend falls to 30.8% finishing, 4.8% below the overall average.

    Consider also that only one horse in the last fifteen renewals has placed in the top four when entering with a win rate below 11% – KING JOHN’S CASTLE providing the anomaly in 2008. That’s a 3% return from those fitting the criteria against an average of 10.5% for the period. Of winners they had none!

    It is enough for The Rascal to be convinced that there is definite cause to discount those with win rates that are sub 11% and that will upset many that have continued to side with former Irish National winner NICHE MARKET and maybe some with a fancy for ROYAL ROSA.

    ELIMINATED

    NICHE MARKET

    The Niche has won just twice in 22 attempts over fences and he hasn’t been a prolific top-three-placer either with 7 top threes to his name.

    There have been some stirring performances from the 2009 Irish National winner but they came last season and not this – keeping on strongly behind WHAT A FRIEND and DENMAN in the 2009 Hennessy Gold Cup and coming within a whisker of beating TRICKY TRICKSTER in last year’s Aon Chase, also at Newbury.

    Such demonstrations of valour have kept NICHE MARKET’s handicap rating at a premium and he’s yet to overcome it – despite a dip to 149 The Niche remains 13lbs above his best winning mark in a handicap chase (no winning Grand National horse has achieved such a leap in form in the last twenty renewals) and just two career chase wins is against protocol too.

    There is hope and memories to bolster NICHE MARKET’s chances but The Rascal cannot partake after an unconvincing performance at Aintree last year. 2010 was surely NICHE MARKET’s time, if it were to come, in the Grand National and only a significant boost to his innate ability will bring him home first of forty. At time of writing NICHE MARKET is 18/1 to win the Grand National (best odds).

    ROYAL ROSA

    ROYAL ROSA has been waiting for a win longer than any of this year’s Grand National entrants – on April 9th it will be 1,589 days since he mashed up at Wetherby in the One Man Novice’s Chase (maybe the ‘Three Horses’ would have been a more apt name since that’s how many competed in ROYAL ROSA’s sole chase win). Given female things you could have birthed five babies in that time and be well on the way for a sixth! And ROYAL ROSA won’t be paying out for their maintenance in the Grand National this year, in The Rascal’s humble opinion.

    Incidentally, in the last 20 years, the horse with the longest period of time between Grand National success and their previous competitive victory was SILVER BIRCH (2007) who had waited 837 days. At time of writing ROYAL ROSA is 100/1 to win the Grand National (best odds).

    CONSISTENCY – Strike Rates

    The most inconsistent Grand National winner in the last fifteen years was AMBERLEIGH HOUSE who held a strike rate (that’s top three places) of 44.7% at the time. Since then the winner’s strike rate has not fallen below 50% though a few less consistent entrants have improved their percentage with a Grand National place.

    The Rascal doesn’t want to be overly savage here but is happy to eliminate entrants with strike rates below 40% and that’s just what he’ll do. At various times over the last few months The Rascal has fancied the chances of VIC VENTURI and COMPLY OR DIE but he parts company with them here. With less reluctance he also bids no money for SANTA’S SON or ALWAYS WAINING in respect of winning the Grand National.

    ELIMINATED

    SANTA’S SON

    SANTA’S SON is the only one of the four to have won in the last year but that was in a modest Class 3 Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh. The chestnut’s last chase victory was back in 2008 over just 16 furlongs and he has no form or experience at extreme distances. Returning to fences at Cheltenham SANTA’S SON showed no indication he was up to scratch in top company.

    His Dam’s Sire ROSELIER fathered 2002 winner BINDAREE and 1995 winner ROYAL ATHLETE so there is some hope for those looking for a big-price flutter but there are no other compelling credentials. At time of writing SANTA’S SON is 150/1 to win the Grand National (best odds).

    ALWAYS WAINING

    Last year’s Topham Chase winner is entered to repeat the feat this Friday and The Rascal feels it would be a far better option than taking on the National’s four and a half miles. About as inconsistent a horse as you can imagine ALWAYS WAINING has clocked up five hurdles wins and five chase victories (including two in Listed company) during his career as well as three early-years wins on the flat. This year’s form, however, reads like a horse in major regression and ALWAYS WAINING’s career chase form at distances beyond 25 furlongs reads 87PPPP.

    The Rascal won’t be backing him at this year’s festival whichever option he takes but those that do can take heart from his ability to confound the form book. Last year’s work? 557F0F8P and then a twelve length win in the Topham Chase. Staggering, for sure, but surely he won’t stay the National distance. At time of writing ALWAYS WAINING is 66/1 to win the Grand National (best odds).

    COMPLY OR DIE

    The Rascal feels almost treacherous in dismissing a horse that captured his imagination and brought so much joy just a few years ago. Sadly the truth is that there has been no competitive form in the horse since following up with second place a year after winning the 2008 renewal. He has been tailing off in his three starts this year, albeit under big weights, and his Official Rating has been frittering away ever since that wondrous April afternoon three years ago.

    Had COMPLY OR DIE been allocated the same winning mark of 139 that brought him home that day – and the rating at which he is now judged – then The Rascal would still be unconvinced of him doubling up in 2011. Sadly the National handicapper missed his evident fatigue when pulling up in the Eider Handicap this February and has him five pounds heavier than his present ranking, making it all the harder. To be fair, Newcastle was wet and heavy that day and only three completed in the conditions. The Aintree ground and course will suit COMPLY OR DIE as well as any and the 10-8 allocation will feel welcome. The weight is only a pound lighter than when winning as a nine-year-old, however, and three years on The Rascal feels that if COMPLY OR DIE can surpass last year’s 12th place finish he will have done very well indeed.

    At time of writing COMPLY OR DIE is 50/1 to win the
    Grand National (best odds).

    VIC VENTURI

    Ah, VIC VENTURI, and how The Rascal hoped this would be his 2011 selection and a road to the plunder of pride and pounds he desires! Sadly VIC VENTURI is a beast of too much burden in this year’s race and The Rascal cannot envision the triumph.

    VIC VENTURI was fourth in this year’s Bobbyjo Chase, a race he won last year on a mark just one pound lower, and the three ahead of him in the 2010 running all have entries in this Saturday’s Grand National.

    With the Bobbyjo Chase taking place after the National weights were allocated VIC VENTURI has ended up with a raw deal. On current ratings VIC VENTURI should be two pounds lighter than THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (the winner and 12 lengths ahead) but he has seven pounds more instead! He should be one pound heavier than ARBOR SUPREME (second and 11 lengths clear of VIC VENTURI) rather than over a stone! OSCAR TIME (third and four lengths in front) should be two pounds lighter than VIC but will saddle eleven pounds less on Saturday. It is truly harsh.

    Without doubt one race doesn’t write the National story and VIC VENTURI travelled well despite being badly hampered twice before unseating last year. Yet for The Rascal winning from 11-6 is hard enough as it is without giving weight to youngsters and that’s why he’ll be leaving him alone this year. At time of writing VIC VENTURI is 50/1 to win the Grand National (best odds).

    MORE TOMORROW RAPSCALLIONS… 35 remain in The Rascal’s scope but only 12 will carry through to his conclusion on Thursday night. Hope yours is still there :-)

  15. Pablo says:

    In the case of Mr Frisk – his ground was GF but he raced on F so that’s the same for argument’s sake

  16. kj says:

    but Rascal! there aren’t enough days left before the race to eliminate 35! Rofl!

    Pablo- absolutely agree about the ground being within a horses range in winning. This is the big worry for SBN. When you look at the ground figures put together by Neil on 102 thread, it is clear. Great form tho. Still waiting to see if its not as nice weather as they think it will be, or if rain hits friday night! g/s will be ok.
    The Irish English horses we basically treat as two camps already, we have little choice hey.

    Maureen- so Oscar is tipped luncheon horse oh ;)

  17. maureen says:

    Not really much discussion about the National, more a night of interviews with jockeys about past races. Positive comments about Oscar Time and also heard that, whatever the trainer says of his chances, State of Play is in good form. When asked who would win the race, Michael Scudamore said SBN, but it would have been a surprise if he’d said anything else. Now trying to stop reading Chris Pitts book, because it’s very late and I’m kna….ed, but it’s a book you dip into and can’t put down.

  18. Bovril III says:

    Have read it twice Maureen….and Im too bl**dy excited to sleep…..3 days to go!!!

  19. maureen says:

    I was very impressed by the chapter on Sam Whalley Cohen; his record riding over the fences is quite exceptional but he is also a highly intelligent guy who thinks the race through, and I liked the way he said he wasn’t going to be hard on Liberthine when it was obvious she’d given her all. They’re also a family who know their horses and the breeding of them and I really hope they’re successful on Saturday. Josh Gifford said that when he came off Out and About [remember that one; what a tearaway, one of the first horses I remember from the National]he tried to grab Terry Biddlecombes leg to pull him off as well..just imagine that happening today! Bob Champion couldn’t make it, unfortunately. Of the film, Champions, Josh said that the film he saw was very good, but then the Americans took it over and tweaked it a lot to suit the American market and ruined it. A very decent family, the Giffords, and very loyal to people. I have to admit that I’m beginning to want the race to be over, because it’s doing my head in trying to work out what is going to happen!

  20. Bovril III says:

    I think in about 73 or 74 at 1st Bechers Andy Turnell was thrown out of the side door in one of those ‘arms out …noooooooooo not me’ poses and his right arm inadvertently got linked in David Nicholsons (who had jumped it perfectly and was riding on) and he yanked him out the near side door….!!

    Andy said as soon as he saw who he had ‘accidently’ done it to, he left his whip and silk cap on the deck and legged it before the ‘duke’ could get hold of him as the air was bluer than the sky!!

    Also a sign of how the race has changed…in D Nicholsons autobiog. he relates that his 5th ever ride in public (yes…really) was in the GN and he was scared sh*teless!!!!

    Josh was an unlucky loser as in ’67 he was on the fav (Honey End) and of course came off at the 23rd only to remount and all but catch Fionavon…Plus people forget he got Brave Highlander in to 5th, 6th and 4th in successive nationals (as a trainer).

  21. Simon6 says:

    will miss the Rapscalious One’s nest instalment as off oop North tomorrow, going to Aintree on Thursday and will walk the course, spitting every six steps, to judge the ground for myself, may spend a penny at the Canal Turn and spill my pint by the Elbow – anything to help Silver By Nature get his softish ground on Saturday afternoon

  22. Bovril III says:

    Correction..The Dukes 5th ride over jumps….he had started as a flat jock!

  23. mrfrisk says:

    if anyone would like a live cam feed to liverpool hope this helps hour by hour weather conditionds for all u guys !!http://www.matthew.st/webcam.php?WebCam=Mathew+Street+WebCam+%232
    wow not long now seems an eternity since first started studying xmas time !! i think the time has come where ppl making cases for there own horses (blinkered first time) lol remember someone saying that the dew in the morning would help soften the ground for SBN LOL GOOD LUCK GUYS HOPE ALL HORSES COME BACK SAFE :)

  24. JJF says:

    Goodness me Rascal is leaving it late this year , and ruling out Niche Market in the first swoop one of my fancies already gone . Saw this morning going now good to soft according to Sky Sports1 so KJ keep the rain dancing good man !!
    Away to work catch up tonight all

  25. Speedyseagull says:

    Good work Rascal!

  26. Matriarch says:

    Morning. We had rain here on Merseyside from about 01:30 this morning. Just looked outside, it’s damp but drying out.

    6 miles from course.

  27. Matriarch says:

    Also, the ATR website has their GN mircosite up and running.

  28. Seven Towers says:

    I’m new here this year so I was unaware of the phenomenon that is Rascal. Has he really given you all those winners of the National (albeit in the third person)!?

  29. Volty says:

    Rascal’s done great in most years, on his website he also gives winners for the Scottish & Welsh Nationals. Not convinced on his appraisal of ‘Niche The Machine’. If you factor in the 1D he has plus the 4th in the 4Miler at Chelts he’s there abouts on those percentiges. Not convinced Nicolls has got the best prep for him this year but he’s my number 1 choice. Nicolls is great preparing upto Gold Cup distance but after this he leaves a lot to be desired!

  30. Volty says:

    In Rascals appraisal he states that nothing has won 13lbs higher than last h’cap win. I think if you look back there is at least one other Irish Nat winner that won the National with similar difference. Not got time to check but I seem to remember it was either Bobby Jo or Papillon

  31. Volty says:

    Just checked, Numbersix was 12lbs higher, and it was 20lbs for Bobbyjo so Rascal got that very wrong. Come on the Machine!!!!

  32. Seven Towers says:

    Do you think that Mr Martin is going to be leaned on very heavily today and pressed for a decision?

    Call me cynical but it would never suprise me, if the horse is too injured to take part, that Martin would leave him in until one of those below paid him enough money to withdraw him in time.

  33. Seven Towers says:

    And final question for a while….who is the best bookie for “side bets”? It will happen one day whereby something unfortunate will happen at Beechers first time around and the fence will be completely omitted second time. It is coming and to ease my chargrin I would like remuneration!

  34. dom says:

    As the race draws nearer it is very easy to panic and start questioning your original choice of horse and start spread betting as you find reasons why other horses way win.
    I think this is a time to stay calm and confident in our original choices that were based on sound judgement, before the excitement of final week.
    Taking taking this into account, pick ONE horse you really feel ‘hand on heart’ is going to win this.

    I have a feeling SBN is too strong for these even on good to softish ground. This is my feeling. What is yours?

  35. The Stayer says:

    How could Bechers be omitted? I don’t think there’s a way around as it covers the whole width of the track. Never do any of these kind of side-bets. Bookie benefit all day long.

    With my bet on Northern Alliance looking likely to go down the pan I was looking at where I could re-invest. One horse that we haven’t discussed much is Don’t Push It. He’s obviously been geared up for the race all season and this year will shoulder 11-10 off a 7lb higher mark carrying 5lbs more than he did last year. I did some research into horses coming back the following year and this is what has happened since 2000. I have looked at the change in OR, change in actual weight carried and how the horse fared.

    Papillion 2000 – OR+9lbs, act.wgt+7bs, 4th (remounted)
    Red Marauder 2001 – DNR 2002
    Bindaree 2002 – OR+7lbs, act.wgt+7lbs, 6th
    Monty’s Pass 2003 – OR+14lbs, act.wgt+17lbs, 4th
    Amberleigh House 2004 – OR+7lbs, act.wgt+7lbs, 10th
    Hedgehunter 2005 – OR+12lbs, act.wgt+11lbs, 2nd
    Numbersixvalverde 2006 – OR+11lbs, act.wgt +9lbs, 6th
    Sliver Birch 2007, DNR 2008
    Comply Or Die 2008 – OR+15lbs, act.wgt+11lbs, 2nd
    Mon Mome 2009 – OR+7lbs, act.wgt+7lbs, Fell
    Don’t Push It 2010 – OR+7lbs, act.wgt+5lbs ????

    With the exception of 13yo Amberleigh House and Mon Mome, the other 5 returning winners have all finished in the top 6 with two of them finishing 2nd. DPI has the joint lowest rise in OR (7lbs) and the overall lowest rise in actual weight carried (5lbs) to overcome so surely he has a great chance of being involved in the finish again. Hedgehunter and COD defied much bigger rises in OR and actual weight to finish second and with DPI’s perfect preparation surely he can go close?

  36. Pablo says:

    dom

    has been Oscar Time for a long time but was liking Northern Alliance too until news of “injury” prompted me trade out and leave only NRNB on him

    getting a last minute appreciation for BallaBriggs though – don’t know where it’s come from but it won’t go away

  37. Muchos24 says:

    Haven’t had time to revamp my system to a more points based strategy, but even so I’m being tempted into one more bet on Ballabriggs. Missed out on my initial shortlist by a mere £6k career chase winnings, and owned by Trevor Hemmings who is based over here in the Isle of Man.

    The National legend that is Hedgehunter lives here these days, and went to a school here that is called Ballakermeen, so laid off the rest of Ornais (next to no confidence on the blog/votes so happy enough with this call) and put a tenner on at 18s. It’s another sentimental bet but at least i’m on now!

  38. Muchos24 says:

    Posted without seeing yours Pablo – great minds eh! If NA pulled i’m putting the NRNB returns back on it too, have the same ‘feeling’ as you I think!

  39. Muchos24 says:

    GOING UPDATE – COURSE CURRENTLY SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES

    “THE going description at Aintree was changed again on Wednesday morning after rain fell at the course on Tuesday night, though the forecast is for high pressure to return in the coming days.

    On Tuesday the going had eased after overcast conditions had failed to dry the track as much as expected, and further rain overnight now means that the National course is described as soft, good to soft in places, while the Mildmay and Hurdle course is good to soft, soft in places.

    Speaking on Wednesday morning, clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said: “We had four millimetres overnight which has just eased the ground a bit.

    “I’m very happy with the ground, we didn’t have much of a drying day yesterday, and the rain was perhaps more than we expected but it’s set to be a dry and cloudy day with sunny spells today with temperatures getting up to 17C.”

    Thursday’s forecast is expected to be similar, while Friday is cooler with temperatures down to 12C. However Saturday is forecast to be a dry and sunny day, with temperatures up to 18C.”

    If the forecast holds it should dry out, but the chances of Soft in the going looking much better than last week.

  40. The Stayer says:

    If you look at the turfrax map (today 10am), most of the course is good-soft with a few soft patches and some good patches. The soft patches will be borderline good-soft anyway so they will soon dry back to good-soft. We’ll be looking at good with good-soft patches come Saturday so probably a bit slower than last year, but not much.

  41. admin says:

    Hi everyone,

    Please bring this thread to a close and start using the new main thread that I will be opening in the next five minutes

    Thanks

  42. Sootydog says:

    Good luck to all, love reading the site but no nothing about horses! Seems to be not one stand out favourite as last year when everyone was into Rambo. Heading to aintree Thursday for Liverpool day.

  43. Systemsman says:

    “GOING UPDATE – COURSE CURRENTLY SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES”

    If only that ground holds but i doubt it. However there is a rainbow coming for all SBN fans. BBC 5 day forcast shows showers at 4am Thursday. On the interactive map is shows rain Thursday 4am to 7am and Friday night (just what we need). So hope lives that we can get Good/Sft with some Sft patches (trainres/jockekies will need to walk the course)which would in my opinion be fine for both SBN and OT.
    Met Office confirms showers at 4am Thursday morning but does not show any Friday night (so far).

    So its 3 a three way split:
    Good with Gd/Sft patches
    Good /Sft
    Good/Sft with Sft patches

    Its all down to those showers, when they come and how heavy.

    Temperature wise its not as bad as it may look in the South and Eeat. Thursday is the bad day – sunney (but remember those early morning showers)and Friday so it wil dry up some what but if those showers come at the right time the dream lives!!!!

    Hi Ho Silver ……………!

  44. Showlad says:

    Grand Slam Hero, Golden Kite and In Compliance dark horses for me ;:)

  45. Speedyseagull says:

    Going is now good to soft, soft in places according to turftrax

  46. geoff says:

    killy glen
    Blue sea cracker
    The other one
    niche market
    calgary bay
    Big fella thanks
    My 6 picks