Scottish National 2011 Trends and Tips

Below is some basic info which may help with things for this year’s Scottish National. Apologies for the delay in starting this thread but things had been a bit hectic in Grand National Guide towers and we needed a couple of days to recharge the batteries!
Threads for the Irish National and the B365 will be set up in the next couple of days.

Scottish National

Previous Winners

A good place to start is to look at the basic details of the last ten previous winners:

Scottish National Winners/Age/Weight/SP/Official Rating

2010 Merigo 9-10-0 18/1 127

2009 Hello Bud 11-10-9 12/1 133

2008 Iris De Balme 8-9-7(oh26!) 143?

2007 Hot Weld 8-9-9 14/1 124

2006 Run For Paddy 10-10-2 33/1 135

2005 Joe’s Edge 8-10-0 (5oh) 20/1 132

2004 Grey Abbey 10-11-12 12/1 148

2003 Ryalux 10-10-5 15/2 140

2002 Take Control 8-10-6 20/1 140

2001 Gingembre 7-11-2 12/1 137

2000 Paris Pike 8-11-0 5/1JF 143

Analysis

The victories of Hot Weld and Hello Bud were slight trends breakers in that Hot Weld did not have a top six finish last time out and had a low official rating. Iris De Balme also had an official rating much lower than 143 but ran from that mark so I think we can include him in the figures .Hello Bud was the first winner in the last decade to be over ten years old.

Aged 7-10 (9/10)
Official Rating 132-148 (8/10)
Finished in top 6 on last outing (9/10)

In addition no horse that has run in that seasons Grand National has gone on to win the Scottish National so it would appear we can discount any horse who lines up after a trip round the Grand National fences. We can also discount those horses with a poor jumping record as only 2001 winner Gingembre had a record that included more than two falls or unseats.

Stamina will also be a huge consideration and nine out of the last ten winners had demonstrated winning form over at least 3 miles.

So add in:

No more than two falls or unseats (9/10)
Stamina proven at three miles (9/10)

Hopefully this will help reduce the field down once we know the final declarations

Let us know who you fancy

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313 Responses to Scottish National 2011 Trends and Tips

  1. Speedyseagull says:

    Good stats Crisp, thanks

    14 year old The Tatling about to have his final run in the 7:30 at Bath. COME ON OLD BOY!!!

  2. maureen says:

    Gone to Lunch had some sort of lung infection after last years Scottish; they were very close to putting him to sleep whan he improved. I’m so beating myself about the head with Ballabriggs; like I said, I went to back him at 33′s, didn’t get the bet on and then talked myself out of it..he was worth a 33/1 bet but not the price that he came into very shortly afterwards.

  3. Seven Towers says:

    How do you get horses added to the National list on Betfair?

    Injury curtailed his season but Any Currency will be a serious contender come next April and the layoff has been a precaution rather than essential.

  4. maureen says:

    I wish I’d had a chance to see The Tatling in the flesh. What a grand old horse.

  5. Seven Towers says:

    Irish National favourite Beautiful Sound is from the family of BIG FELLA THANKS and Eider Chase winner DAVID’S DUKY.

    No problems with him staying if he gets in.

  6. maureen says:

    Well, he was certainly staying on in that race at Cheltenham when I had a bet on him! What happened? Did the replacement jockey just not know how to ride him or, when told to hold him up at the back he overdid it a bit! I missed all the Gigginstown horses that won, as well.

  7. maureen says:

    …it was like the Barizan race the year before only in reverse….

  8. Speedyseagull says:

    The Tatling ran well for 4th but just didn’t get any room to challenge

    I had a £2 win bet on Flipando today (won) and Faasel on Saturday. Don’t hold up too much hope but at least it is still going. Knowing my luck at the moment, Faasel will be taken out

  9. Seven Towers says:

    You may be right maureen.

    I like Some Target if the ground is good or good to yielding. Witness Box’s progeny by and large improve on better ground.

    He was staying on best (apart from the winner) at the end of the NH Chase and to be honest he didn’t receive the best of rides during that race. Young Patrick’s timing left a lot to be desired.

    Therefore he wasn’t outpaced because there was no pace in the race and the stronger gallop will help him as he is a very smooth traveller.

  10. Systemsman says:

    crisp 73 wonderful stats for Bet 365 once again – thank you.

    Think i may just have the one fun bet as my daily system bets are doing so well with so little work!!

  11. admin says:

    Hi everyone,

    Sorry for the delay – B365 Gold Cup and Irish National Pages now available – I’m onleave at the moment and forgot to add them before I went off – apologies to all

  12. Billymag says:

    Cheers admin

  13. National Punter says:

    Cheers admin.

    The Package is out if anyone didn’t know?

    For anyone fancy rewatching last yrs GN

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/

    Today’s paper on Syncro very likely in the GN, nothing groundbreaking mind.
    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sports/sports-news-round-up/2012/04/07/horse-racing-synchronised-aimed-at-grand-national-91466-30710286/

    Bit of paper talk by according to pete’s owner
    http://www.gazetteherald.co.uk/sport/9636770.The_Grand_National_____according_to_Pete/

    Same for Killyglen, have to register with the telegraph to read though
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/9189358/Stuart-Crawford-believes-wind-of-change-can-blow-for-Killyglen-in-Grand-National.html

    Sunnyhillboy back in again! Got a bit of 36,38 and even 44 last night, With all the news and focus on Syncro is this one flying under the radar as anything over 20/1 seems to be in my lively outsider camp.mthis is my seabass replacement at double the odds!