Irish Grand National 2011 Trends and Tips

Please add all your trends, tips and analysis for the Irish Grand National 2011 to this page

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298 Responses to Irish Grand National 2011 Trends and Tips

  1. Pablo says:

    Neil

    Agree with what you & Nick M says but thought Dubai Prince was the one to do it – just don’t see another challenger and never bet odds on

    So no bet

    But the Derby looks open and trends are very very stong after the trials are over

  2. sling-shot01 says:

    saamidd for me @33/1 good e/w bet did not like good/soft ground last time should get fast ground this time big player

  3. Aldaniti&Spartan Missile says:

    One thing on national front that I’ve been thing of.

    I realise that this is being wise after the event, but Ginger talks about Ballabriggs Kelso run before the national, and says he bends his back while jumping, like an old fashion type national winner.

    I looked at pictures of the race but couldn’t see what Ginger was on about, probably inexperience on my part, but the commentary said jumped well.

    Well jumping is the name of the game, and I was trying to think of ways to identify this in the future?

    Any ideas?

  4. Aldaniti&Spartan Missile says:

    The opening sentence has a typo in it.

    Thing should be thinking.

  5. Seven Towers says:

    Going out on a limb this afternoon. I don’t lay horses very often but given my reservations about Definite Article being able to produce real stayers I have gone quite big in laying Gordon Eliott’s Trendelenburg at Perth. I am bricking it! Backing a horse to lose is far more terrifying.

  6. Seven Towers says:

    Gutted. Pedigree study does work a bit!. That was a close one. I didn’t think Petite Margot still had it in her.

  7. Seven Towers says:

    I hate Gordon Eliott!

  8. maureen says:

    Read Ben Aitkins blog saying to watch out for Gordon Elliott/Jason Maguire at Perth, but ignored it. How much profit would there have been backing all the Elliott/Twiston Davies horses this week? Thought if I did, the season being like wot it is, they would all finish last!

  9. Mike says:

    where can i find race comments on whether a horse ran on or stayed on at the end of their previous races for the guinees???

  10. maureen says:

    Go onto theracingpost, put the horses name in the box at the top right hand corner then click onto it’s previous races. The horses that have said the magic ‘quickened’ are Saamidd and [this surprised me] Native Khan. However, don’t take my word as gospel because I haven’t looked at the race properly and I might have missed something eg Frankel probably doesn’t need to ‘quicken’ because he’s going so fast anyway! There are usually a lot of blatant non stayers in the race and I think they’ve all been scared away this year.

  11. maureen says:

    ..or oddschecker;just click on the race odds, go down to the racecard and click on the horses name there.

  12. Systemsman says:

    Admin new pages needed. May + Key summer races Summer National/Derby etc. It worked well last year but if you are not careful no one will be left before the new pages are up!!

    Is there anyone out there?

  13. National punter says:

    Morning everyone. Shame wehave to move onto the flat season already, some smallbets as the flat is a bit unpredictable

    Newmarket
    310 my 3 to take on frankel are native khan, fury & Saamid
    345 jonny mudball ran some good races last yr and is normally at the front at the end of races, worth a 12/1 punt
    Tomorrow I fancy 8/1 shot hooray

    Not about this afternoon but will pop I’n later and see if anyone else posts tips

  14. maureen says:

    Yes, I’m on Saamidd ew. Early foal as well but supposedly was quite a bit 2 year old..might not suir Newmarket and may need to grow into himself a bit more. Certainly one that is a lot beyyer than his price suggests. Also on Broox, Fury and Dubawi Gold. Reaaly looking forward to the race. Need to check out 1000gns trends for tomorrow.

  15. sling-shot01 says:

    np on saamidd as well as in post #248 but like fury as well can t believe saamidd is 33/1 one bad run he would have been 7/1 with out that run did not like the ground that day me thinks.p s anyone seen Darren sos sos come back where are you ?

  16. Pablo says:

    2.00 Green Mile
    3.45 Astrophysical Jet

    Plus e/w double

    Good luck with your bets!

  17. sling-shot01 says:

    like astrophysical jet pablo looks good . do you mean green destiny ?

  18. crisp 73 says:

    Preliminary GN 2012 thoughts.

    Handicap chase form and prize money 1 year before.

    26/29 GN winners had already ran in at least 3 handicap chases. (Grittar,Lord Gyllene, Bindaree odd ones out)

    Only Grittar and Bindaree in the last 29 years hadn’t already had a top3 place in a handicap chase.

    Only,
    Grittar, no h’cap chase starts;
    (2nd and 3rd in h’cap chases in winning season)
    Minnehoma, 3rd in Welsh National;
    (won a h’cap chase in winning season)
    Lord Gyllene,2nd at 26f;
    (won 3 h’cap chases in winning season)
    Bindaree, fell in only h’cap chase start;
    (5th in Hennessy, 3rd in Welsh National in winning season)
    Comply Or Die,4th in Hennessy;
    (won Eider, 2nd in Tommy Whittle in winning season)
    in the last 29 years hadn’t already won a handicap chase.

    13/16 GN winners had already won a 17k+ handicap chase, 1 year before there GN win. (Bindaree had won an 18k novice chase, COD a 20k novice chase)

    The last 8 winners, bar COD, had already won an 18k+ handicap chase.

    The last 8 winners, bar COD, had already picked up a win/place prize of 21k+ in a handicap chase.

    The last 8 winners, bar COD and Mon Mome had already won a h’cap chase worth 29k+.

  19. Pablo says:

    yes…

    2.00 Green Destiny
    3.45 Astrophysical Jet

    Plus e/w double

    Good luck with your bets!

  20. crisp 73 says:

    Preliminary GN 2012 thoughts.

    Chase and chase/hurdle experience.

    29/30 GN winners had already ran in at least 7 chases. (Lord Gyllene had ran in 4)

    28/30 GN winners had already won 3 chases. (Lord Gyllenne had won 0, Hedgehunter 2)

    28/30 GN winners had had at least 13 chase and hurdle starts. (Party Politics at least 9 – info incomplete,Lord Gyllene 4)

    28/30 GN winners had won at least 4 chases or hurdles.
    (Lord Gyllene 0, Hedgehunter 3)

  21. sling-shot01 says:

    nice one pablo got on that one

  22. Jackie says:

    Well done Pablo, missed that one, but had the next Gertrude Bell,at 9/2 which got me a free bet on next, I popped on fav at 2′s and he obliged.

    All last min bets, as not home this morning to post or study today.

    On Fury ew and looking for another prob go for your tips Saamidd.

  23. Jackie says:

    Also looked on daily thread first, :( Admin we need some new pages please. :)

  24. Seven Towers says:

    Well done the fav but very happy with Native Khan’s run and he will be better for the extra 4 furlongs. My 15′s for a place in the Derby is looking good (70′s for the win!).

    He’s still 8′s tbp if you’re quick!

  25. sling-shot01 says:

    pure class what a horse

  26. crisp 73 says:

    Preliminary GN 2012 thoughts.

    Win and win place strike rates in chases and chase and hurdles 1 year before.

    19/19 GN winners had a chase win place s/r of 47%+. 18/19 had a chase win place s/r of 50%+. Amberleigh House had 47%.

    16/19 had a chase win s/r of 20%.
    Lord Gyllene had not won a chase in 4 attempts in UK, Amberliegh House was 14% and had won 5 chases, Monty’s Pass was 17% and had won 6 chases.

    18/18 had a chase,hurdle win place s/r of 45%+.
    16/18 had a chase,hurdle win place s/r of 50%+.
    Bobbyjo had 45%, Amberleigh House had 47%.

    18/18 had a chase,hurdle win s/r of 14%+.

  27. Aldaniti&Spartan Missile says:

    Well done Frankel in the 2000 guineas, not had a penny on it, but not seen such an impressive winner since Zafonic. Will be hard to beat at a mile, but might take the Derby route now.

  28. kj says:

    Just in time to watch that race, awesome performance, Monster horse.
    Didn’t get a bet on in time…. I liked the 200-1 shot Slim Shady,… luckily all bookies only paying out 3 places. Phew!

  29. kj says:

    Can I suggest we put GN comments and revised stats on a GN thread? Maybe the 2011 result link would be more useful for when we all come back/ future reference.
    Can persons already posted Pablo, Crisp ;) or another good soul copy them there? good idea?

    Admin- Seems this is the only active thread!? think you should have set up a general thread or kept an older one up in recent posts list, before you went off on holiday again! 8) our historical threads are getting all muddled…. Organisethisconfusion ;)

  30. maureen says:

    ..and I was looking for a speed horse to beat Frankel! Dubawi Gold was the nearest I got but, annoyingly put a half sized ew on him and, insread of getting 50′s at Corals had 40′s at W Hills because of their ‘first past the post’ rule.

  31. sling-shot01 says:

    havant for me today in the 1000 guineas and pachattack in the 2.35

  32. Pablo says:

    3.15 Hooray / Memory / Misty For Me – my 3 against the field in an open race – can’t split them so doing combo forecasts and trifecta
    3.50 Citrus Star e/w
    5.00 Izzi Top (double with Art History)
    5.35 Art History (double with Izzi Top)

    Good luck with your bets!

  33. maureen says:

    Has Nova Hawk and I Love Me. Seems the stats/breeding is going out the window for the flat like it did for the jumps! I like Dynaformers, but I thought they were staying/late developers. And I backed a Godolphin horse yesterday as well!

  34. Pablo says:

    Any trends out there for Chester Cup?

    Initial thoughts:

    Overturn has the plumb draw for a front runner in stall 1

    Also like the look of Admiral Barry from stall 4 with Murtagh jocked up – should like the ground too

  35. maureen says:

    Pablo. the way this year is panning out I think horses will be winning from stall 10 at Chester! Notebook says ‘look out for Alan Bailey horses at Chester’..not sure if he had any winners last year though [notes are a bit old]. And Marwen Koukash [sp] likes to have winners there, so I’ll be looking out for his grey silks.

  36. crisp 73 says:

    Preliminary thoughts for 2012 Grand National.

    Stamina.

    38/41 had already won a chase at 24f+, 1 year before.
    Gay Trip, never did, Lord Gyllene, did in winning season, Red Marauder, never did but did win 24f hurdle.

    19/21 had already had at least 6 starts (chases/hurdles) over 24f+.
    Lord Gyllene, twice, Red Marauder, three times.

    26/29 had already won at 25f+.
    Lord Gyllene did in winning season, Red Marauder/Monty’s Pass never did.

    18/21 had already had at least 3 starts (chases/hurdles) over 25f+.
    Lord Gyllene, Red Marauder, Numbersixvalverde, ran twice.

  37. sling-shot01 says:

    Chester is a goldmine for punters who just concentrate on low drawn runners. The advantage enjoyed from being closest to the running rail really is huge. One of the best systems followed by Flatstats is the ‘Low Drawn Chester Form Horse’. The rules for this system are simple: back any horse drawn 1, 2 or 3 who was placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time and is fancied today.

    Usually, fancied horses who were placed last time out would not be profitable. These runners would be overbet and would not win as often as their odds say they should. But at Chester, being drawn low increases the chance of winning tremendously. The low draw advantage can make a 3/1 shot in the market run more like a 9/4 or 5/2 shot.

    Why is the advantage so great?
    Running around Chester is like running around a giant bowl: horses are constantly on the turn. There is hardly any straight section (the run in is less than 2f). Any jockey who is behind the pack, and wishes to overtake to get in front, has to pull out and cup around the pack in an arc movement. This burns up energy.

    If jockeys stayed up with the pace and ran side by side, then horses drawn wide will have to run much further than those drawn low. Using a bit of maths it is possible to conclude that a horse drawn in stall 4 will have to run 56 foot further than a horse drawn in stall 1 for every complete circuit of the track.

  38. sling-shot01 says:

    Experience counts
    Being a jockey requires a bit more skill and knowledge than pushing a supermarket trolley around the isles. Most punters don’t take this into consideration. They assume that a jockey is a jockey and is only there to steer a horse and whip it to go faster.

    Chester is a very tricky course where course experience counts. The following table shows the stats for jockeys who have had few rides at the course and jockeys who have had many.

    Number of Course Runs Win% ROI%
    Less than 10 7.3% -43%
    More than 50 14.1% -11%
    Jockeys who have had less than 10 runs at the course only won 7.3% of the time and returned a loss of 43%. More experienced jockeys who have ridden at least 50 times around the course won nearly twice as much and returned less of a loss.

    To make a more fairer analysis the following table examines favourites ridden by course inexperienced and experienced jockeys.

    Number of Course Runs Win% ROI%
    Less than 10 27.8% -10%
    More than 50 39.3% +11%
    A jockey, with little course experience and riding the favourite, wins at a rate much lower than an experienced jockey. Notice too that experienced jockeys riding the favourite have actually returned a profit of 11%.

  39. sling-shot01 says:

    Try and avoid geldings in the race.
    Horses who last ran more than 8 weeks ago are negative.
    Forget finding big priced winners. No horse priced 20/1 or more has won from 58 attempts
    Carrying 9-4 or more is too much of a burden.
    Carrying 8-7 or less the horse is quite likely to be running out of his class range.

  40. sling-shot01 says:

    i am on overturn ante post 14/1 big big chance front runner low draw.and red cadeaux and tastahil top weight but only 1 pound more then last year second in this and better draw in 3 last year was draw in 16 not good that is tastahil

  41. Aldaniti&Spartan Missile says:

    Hi Crisp 73, feels like a cross connection here :D . One thing since Rough Quest, all I can check back to. About national winners 1 year before their win is that most have won a class 1 or class 2 chase.

    With exceptions of Lord Gyllene, Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter

    Hedgehunter did win one worth 34K at Gowran Park, so although not in name I think it qualifies as one.

    Monty Pass was 2nd in a class 2 at Aintree.

  42. Pablo says:

    Been through the Chester Cup again and fancy about half a dozen so no bet for me

  43. crisp 73 says:

    Aldaniti&Spartan Missile – You’re right.
    Can we narrow it down to a C1/C2 handicap chase 1 year before?

    86 West Tip – Ritz Club chase
    87 Maori Venture – Mandarin chase
    88 Rhyme N Reason – Irish National
    89 Little Polveir – Scottish/Midland Nationals
    90 Mr Frisk – Mildmay Cazalet(now London National?)
    91 Seagram – not sure but won 24f ‘Rip chase’ at Ascot which has become the chase that Niche Market won a couple of years back
    92 Party Politics – Mandarin
    94 Miinnehoma – none
    95 Royal Athlete – Morson chase, was Servo, 28f Cheltenham
    96 Rough Quest – Ritz Club
    97 Lord Gyllene – none
    98 Earth Summit – Scottish National
    99 Bobbyjo – Irish National
    00 Papillon – 25f Novice h’cap, Fairyhouse
    01 Red Marauder – C2 21f Wetherby and C1 20f Ascot
    02 Bindaree – none
    03 Montys Pass- won 20f, 18k. 2nd in Kerry Nat and Topham
    04 Amberleigh House – Becher
    05 Hedgehunter – Thyeste
    06 Numbersixvalverde – Irish National
    07 Silver Birch – Welsh National
    08 Comply Or Die – none
    09 Mon Mome – 18k, 20f Aintree
    10 Dont Push It – 25f Aintree
    11 Ballabriggs – Kim Muir

    21/25 had already won a C2/C1 handicap chase.

    Quite sure over the last 40 odd years only Grittar, Miinnehoma, Lord Gyllene, Bindaree, COD had not won a handicap chase of any class 1 year before GN win. Grittar and Bindaree never did.

  44. maureen says:

    slingy; noticed that about jockeys when we went to Wetherby..Graham Lee won about 3 races that day, because there are certain parts of the course where you can get breathers into the horses; there were a lot of southern horses/jockeys around that day as well.

  45. Muchos24 says:

    Systemsman – will you be putting your Eurovision fancies up here or elsewhere? I’m fancying Estonia at 8s and a small nibble on the catchy Belarus entry at 200s…

  46. Muchos24 says:

    Ignore me – just found your other thread.

  47. maureen says:

    What other thread? If there’s another one that I can’t access will someone tell me on this one!